Sunday, August 24, 2008

The Cult of Bend Claims Another Victim

An interesting week, we saw what is The Beginning Of End of the private financing of home mortgages.
Fannie Mae, 24 year chart

Freddie Mac, Lifetime chart

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac both began a collapse similar to the Bear Stearns debacle, although far grander in scale. There again will be a familiar sucking sound from the South, that is if you live directly North of D.C.

Look closely at these charts; there should be some instructive lessons to be learned about these two hugely leveraged levithans.

First, almost ALL bubbles have some sort of leverage available to the participants, and the Ultimate Fatalities will be those that lent to the masses. Why? Because when you lend to speculators (de rigueur in Bubble Times), and the loan is secured against the Bubble Goods, YOU are on the hook for any large scale losses, while the speculator WISELY plays the equity side, a call option without any real prospect of loss.

Second, leveraged institutions ALMOST ALWAYS are pulled into the maelstrom of what appears to be sound, prudent lines of business. Remember Lending To Brazil? Sure, sounds good, all they have to do is print whatever the hell sort of loser ass currency they have down there to pay us Wall St bigwigs off, right? Uh huh. That one didn't go well.

Finally, there will always exist the extremely remote chance of some sort of catastrophe completely destroying a otherwise prudent loan portfolio. It just happens. Small mid-west banks learned this during the floods of 1993. It just goes beyond their thinking that there will be a 1,000 Year Event during their lifetime.

It is the nature of banks to go broke. It is in their genome to go bust.

It's probably hard to remember now, but a year ago the idea of Freddie or Fannie going broke was so patently ridiculous, it was hardly even discussed in polite company. I remember I thought the sky was falling, but when Jimmy Rogers brought up the collapse of Fannie & Freddie, I thought he'd pretty much gone off his nut.

But look: Both institutions have wiped out a lifetime of gains, and will be summarily shot when the US Government takes over & begins operations under New Management.

And not to scare anyone, but these are the same people who INVADED IRAQ TO CONTROL OIL PRICES. THESE ARE THE SAME MOTHERFUCKERS WHO BOUGHT BEAR STEARNS DEBT. THESE FUCKERS RUN THE IRS.

The US Government is possibly the Worst Investor of All Time.

FNM & FRE securitized over half the mortgages in this country. What happens now that they are gone & Uncle Sam is now in the house? I honestly don't know, but I have a bad feeling that their track record speaks ill of what will befall all of us.

The End of An Era.

Moving on, I noted in the comments that Buena Vista homes' (built Forum Meadows STD clap trap crap shacks) is going into foreclosure.

Now, for the Noobs here, you should be aware that Wayyyyy back in mid December of last year, Roger Pollock, the anal dildo with arms that runs Buena Vista homes held a mass auction in Portland.

141 homes sell for a total of $65 million at real estate auction

OK, there is one particularly interesting quote in here that any mentally cognizant Bendite would readily understand (approx 2% of Bendites):

Westside homes in Beaverton and Hillsboro sold best, Pollock said. None of the 29 Bend homes sold, and homes that are now rented didn't sell well, either.

Pollock sold his ramshackle shit-shacks ALL OVER OREGON... except for Bend.

No. In Bend he didn't sell a single home. He actually accused those who bid on his Bend properties of trying to STEAL them. This is a clearly deluded idiot.

Or is he? See, he sold ALL the rest of the sugar shacks he was trying to sell, except Bend. It's like he is of Sound Mind and Body when he is NOT dealing with Bend, but once he is in "Bend Mode", he is out of his fucking mind. He goes totally schizo when it comes to Bend.

Any long timer to this blog knows that is the KOOL-AID EFFECT, foisted on man & beast alike via the Bend Media Propoganda Machine. ALL IS WELL. YOU ARE SAFE AS LONG AS YOU KEEP DRINKING THE KOOL-AID. WE NEED YOU TO BECOME PROSTITUTES SO WE KEEP BUYING YOU KOOL-AID AND MAKING YOU BEAR-BONG THE KOOL-AID.

Bend is run like any self-respecting hedonist Meth Den: There is The Fucking Man, The Grandmaster Pimp, The Fucking Boss Hogg, and in this town it is The Builder, or is pimped out grandpappy, The Developer.

And then there is the loose-stool fucking skanks that are drawn into the Grandmaster Pimps Meth-Den. That's us.

We are pulled in with promises of perfect powder 24/7, even in July, good wine & ass fucking your best friends trophy wife above Volo, hummers in your Hummer by your Taiwanese pool boy, and finally meth shot into your scrotum by the finest illegal aliens Madras has to offer.

And life is good for awhile. It's a hedonists dream come true.

But after a few months, Grandpappy asks you to swallow a bucket of cum from some mules that were just jerked of by Drew Bledsoe, and some other unseemly shit involving popsickles & your ass, and you're not thinking that you're living the Good Life like you once were.

The Costs To Entry seemed low. The rewards seemed high. And they were. Shortly.

But now comes the Exit Costs. And they're higher than you thought. In fact, they are barriers in your mind, because you can't, nay you WILL NOT, give up the other aspect of The Good Life, no matter what has to be sacrificed, no matter the cum buckets.

This is us. This is you, this is me. This is Roger Pollock. This is Jay Audia.

We are caught in the Bend Meth Den. Even when we want to really leave, we can't leave. This place has gripped us in some sort of catatonic fit that won't let us accept ANY reasonable offer.

What is happening to Roger Pollock & his cracker shacker butt smackers, is going to happen to this town, and all of us, on a larger cost & temporal scope. It took about 8 months for The Bend Meth Den, The Kool Aid, The Cult of Bend to take down Buena Vista Homes.

We are in for the same fate.

Look around. No one will lower their price. Many CANNOT lower their price, but there are a large number that can (Pollock), but they simply REFUSE.

Again, look at Pollock: A businessman, in this racket for the money, fairly geographically diverse. He holds an auction, and sells EVERYTHING HE'S GOT. Except for Bend, where he simply REFUSES TO ACCEPT REALITY. Why?

Why does this happen to people here? Why is this less a town, than a Meth Den where the Zombie Fucking Inhabitants seem to be robbed of all self-awareness & are completely oblivious to the catastrophe around them? Why?

The answer is of course, Bend Media. Bend Media, is systematically & purposefully creating this Cult in a futile hope to ever expand the First, Last & Greatest Industry Bend has Ever Had: GROWTH.

We aren't about actually DOING anything sustainable here. We are about getting the next mark. We grift marks. That is what this town does. We use up who is here in our Meth Den of Hedonism. Rob them of choice. Pump them full of Kool-Aid, and hand them buckets of chum.

But unfortunately for Boss Hogg, the jig is up. THEY have run out of METH to shoot into our scrotes, and we are starting to wake up. Roger Pollock woke up. And he will lose Buena Vista.

Well, who gives a shit? Big deal. Because what has happened to Pollock will happen to us all. If you think Bend is special and you are special and your house is special, you are about to get a rude wake up call, because you have been medicated by propoganda for too long, and you're about to see that Grandpappy Meth has used you up.

This is what you thought you was

This is what you really is.
"Holy Fuck, I White, Ass Ugly & I'm in a Bend Meth Den!"
Welcome to The Lollypop Guild, Motherfucker.

Bend Media CONTINUES to play Grandpappy Pimp to the populous, and the Bend City Council is ALL TOO HAPPY to suck their cocks as well.

But Pollocks Wake Up Call is coming to all of us. It will be exactly the same, simply larger in absolute financial & time scale. This place is going broke.

And NEVER FORGET what the true root cause is: It is NOT the housing boom or bust. That happened everywhere, and most of the country will survive. It is the media here, trying to hypnotize every single person into thinking their titties were 36DDDDD's, they looked like Angelina Jolie, they were swallowing Brad Pitts cum buckets, not old man mule jerk-off cum buckets.

They are trying to convince you YOU ARE SPECIAL for their NEEDS, NOT YOURS. Growth is ALL THEY HAVE. Just like CRACK DEALERS. Bend Media does not GIVE ONE THIN FUCK about you once you are here, only getting New Meat.

Why do you think they PUSHED through the SDC deferral plan? If they actually THOUGHT about anything for 2 fucking seconds, they would realize that giving the money to PROSPECTIVE BUYERS, while still LUDICRIOUS, makes 1.76 quadrillion times more sense than giving the builders a deferral.

But no. Once you are here, who gives a fuck. Keep entry costs low, keep rewards high... but DO NOT mention the motherfucking exit costs. And believe me, those costs will become highly important to you once you've swallowed your 14th cum bucket on the Volo Terraces.

Bend, like Buena Vista Homes, is going to go 100% BANKRUPT. And just lke any decent meth den, the Pimps get fucking rich & leave town, leaving behind used up meth-huffers who can't even tie their fucking shoes.

And it's all The Kool-Aid, it's all Bend Media. You think it's not 100% dead fucking real? Do you think it doesn't affect 100% of the local populous? Read this:

No bids on Forest Service land

Tuesday, August 19, 2008



The clock ticked past 3 p.m. on Friday, August 15, and there was no sound of a gavel coming down.

The approximately 62-acre parcel of land (50 acres net) the U.S. Forest Service put on the block in Sisters with a minimum bid of $14 million failed to attract any bids during an auction that closed last Friday.

"It's a big disappointment," said Sisters District Ranger Bill Anthony, "and it's going to create some challenges for us."

The no-bid means the Forest Service cannot move forward with plans for a new Sisters headquarters. Perhaps more distressing to the agency is the fact that proceeds won't be available to put into new facilities for the Bend-Fort Rock District, where lease costs are running the agency about $1 million per year.

"We were dependent on the receipts from that sale to fund construction of those projects," Anthony said.

The parcel, which lies along Pine Street in Sisters, was the focus of intense public interest as the possibility emerged that it could be sold to a private developer. Citizens were active in describing amenities they would like to see on the land, from more affordable housing to a public swimming pool.

The City of Sisters summarized community input as a kind of guideline for prospective developers as to how the city would likely want to see the property developed.

According to Anthony, there will be considerable discussion of options at the regional and probably at the national level. It is possible that the property could be put out for bid again in a better economic climate, but that's entirely speculative at this point, Anthony indicated.

For now, what is certain is that the Sisters Ranger District will not be moving and that large parcel of land will not be redeveloped any time soon.

"Fortunately, we have a home in Sisters," Anthony said. "It's a great location. It's not the kind of facility we need for the long term, but we can stay there for a while."

Look at that. The STUPID FUCKING FOREST SERVICE has inadvertently gotten PIMPED OUT. Yup, they think they got 36DDDDD's, when they just an asshole to 16 black fuckers.

The stupid fucking Forest Service, LIKE EVERY SINGLE MOTHERFUCKER EVER COME TO BEND, think they shit don't stink, and their real estate is worth more than The Ginza. Dumbfucks need to make way, cuz here come the cum bucket.

Now, here's a story YOU WILL NOT READ IN THE BULLETIN:

More people leaving Sisters area

By Bill Mintiens

Economic hard times are sending some local residents packing.

Sisters Rental, which also operates the local U-Haul distributorship, has tracked a trend in their U-Haul customers this summer:

"Although our U-Haul business is pretty close to what it was last year, we're seeing more people this year leaving the area than arriving," said Gilbert Porraz.

Porraz noted that it seems to be certain types of people moving on.

"I'm seeing people who've lived here for 5-7 years now moving on, mainly headed south, and most say it was just too hard to try to make a living in Sisters," added Porraz.

But he's also seen a number of "newcomers" leave the area, particularly following a hard winter and lack of employment.

"I know of several people, who arrived here all excited about a year ago, who had to move on for the same reasons. Mainly, no jobs," said Porraz.

Nancy Lynch at United Van Lines in Bend has been writing a number of quotations recently for Sisters families.

"We're definitely seeing more people leaving Sisters than moving in, several have said they have to go where the work is," said Lynch.

Lynch notes that this trend is not confined to Sisters.

"I can tell you that, in Bend, there are a lot of people wanting to leave - but can't until their homes sell," she said.

A July 25 "homes for sale" report showed 239 Sisters-area homes on the market.

"The cost of living in Central Oregon versus the pay in this area makes it very tough for people," said Lynch.

Jason Taroli with Prestige Moving & Storage in Bend, the local Allied Van Lines agent, is seeing the same trends across Central Oregon.

"There are definitely more people leaving than coming right now. We see this more in Bend, of course, due to Bend's population but it's happening everywhere," said Taroli.

Wow. Imagine that. Fucking houses in Sisters cost about 6 trillion times more than anyone makes there. And people are leaving. Is that true? They leaving?

Yeah. They are leaving Sisters in droves. Of course, once the fucking cracker wears off & Whitey wakes up in Bend, they will leave here in droves as well AND there will be an article. Of course people are already leaving as FAST AS THEY CAN.

Notice how YOU HAVEN'T READ ABOUT moving van survey's of arrivals vs departures in the Bulletin recently. Why? Right, the motherfucking departure department is PACKED. And arrivals is ZERO.

No, what we read about is the VAST BUILDING OF SUCCESSFUL PROJECTS:

Tall hotel may be in Sisters' future

By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin
Published: August 22. 2008 4:00AM PST
-

An upscale hotel rising as much as 50 feet could be on the horizon for Sisters’ Western-themed downtown.

Under plans submitted to the city in April, the 98-room, three-story Sisters Village Hotel at the west end of Sisters would give the city its tallest building and would be evaluated based on Deschutes County planning guidelines, according to Eric Porter, the city’s community development director.

That’s due to an agreement made in 1998 between Pine Meadow Village LLC, the city of Sisters and the county that gave owners of the property 10 years to submit an application and fall under the county’s less-restrictive code for the Sisters area.

Representatives of the project’s developer, Celia Hung, of Bend, turned in the hotel project application April 4, a day before the 10-year agreement expired, Porter said.

Right, right, right. The old 50 ft tall Sisters Hotel is what YOU ARE READING ABOUT.

Real estate is STILL GOOD. ALL IS WELL. Here is that bucket of cum.

OK, here comes a Mark My Words Moment:

This Celia Hung-To-The Floor has about a snowballs chance in HELL of ever building this monstrosity. NEVER HAPPEN.

You want to see the Full Scale of the horror that is our local media, you can easily see it here:

The phased approach would make sense in a tourism economy that is expected to experience a significant slowdown in the next 12 to 18 months, said Alana Audette, the president and CEO of Central Oregon Visitors Association, which markets tourism for the region.

“Early indicators are that people are going to be very cautious and price sensitive,” Audette said. “It is a difficult time to launch new products.”

Even the usually ebulient Audette thinks there are 200 different ways this thing SHOULD GET BUILT (remember, GROWTH is our ONLY INDUSTRY). Alana Audette is about the most ill-qualified dumbfuck the World has EVER KNOWN, but the Bulletin SOUGHT HER LYING ASS OUT for this "story".

Standard Procedure in a Meth Den. Grandmaster Pimp tell me I pretty. I best swaller that cum. Fucking unbelievable.

Mark these Words: You wanna know how it'll go down here in a microcosm? You look to Pollock & Buena Vista Homes. Everything is Bend WAY TOO GOOD to be sold at market.

I'D RATHER LOSE EVERYTHING THAN SELL FOR LESS THAN I THINK I SHOULD GET, AFTER ALL THIS IS BEND.

So let it be written, so let it be done. Stupid Motherfuckers.

OK, on to what I think is the DOMINANT THEME for this country & it's economy: STAGFLATION.

U.S. Economy: Housing, Prices Raise Stagflation Risk


By Shobhana Chandra and Timothy R. Homan
More Photos/Details

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. builders broke ground on the fewest new homes in 17 years and producer prices climbed the most since 1981, providing no sign of an economic recovery or easing inflation.

Housing starts fell 11 percent in July to an annual rate of 965,000, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The Labor Department reported the producer price index jumped 9.8 percent from a year before.

``There's no doubt we're in a period of stagflation now,'' said Peter Kretzmer, a senior economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York who formerly worked at both the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Fed Board in Washington.

Stock indexes posted their biggest two-day loss since June. The Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index dropped 0.9 percent to close at 1,266.69, with the S&P Supercomposite Homebuilding Index down 3.5 percent. Treasuries were little changed, with 10-year notes yielding 3.83 percent.

``We are still in a fairly risky situation'' on the inflation front, Fed Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. He said that higher interest rates may be needed to curtail prices even before growth and financial markets return to normal.

Compared with July 2007, work began on 30 percent fewer homes. Building permits, a sign of future construction, also fell in July, the Commerce Department reported. They were down 18 percent to a 937,000 annual pace.

Starts were projected to fall to a 960,000 annual pace, according to the median forecast of 77 economists polled by Bloomberg News. The median estimate for permits was 970,000.

`Pull Back'

``A recovery will not happen this year,'' said Russell Price, a senior economist at H&R Block Financial Advisors Inc. in Detroit. ``Not only are mortgage rates creeping up, but financing is becoming more difficult for a lot of people. Builders will continue to pull back.''

The 1.2 percent increase in producer prices from the previous month followed a 1.8 percent increase in June, the Labor Department said. So-called core prices that exclude fuel and food rose 0.7 percent after a 0.2 percent gain in June.

Prices paid to factories, farmers and other producers were forecast to rise 0.6 percent, according to the median of 77 forecasts. The core index was projected to advance 0.2 percent.

Fed's Fisher

``The recent burst of cost-push inflation is giving the beast digestion problems that might manifest themselves in the form of a lingering inflationary fever,'' Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said in a speech in Aspen, Colorado, today.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told U.S. lawmakers last month that officials ``continue to expect inflation to moderate in 2009 and 2010, as slower global growth leads to a cooling of commodity markets,'' while viewing the outlook ``as unusually uncertain.''

The jump in the producer price index reflected a surge in commodity costs that has since waned. At the same time, the acceleration in costs excluding food and fuel raises concern about a pass-through to consumer prices.

Producer prices are one of three monthly inflation gauges reported by the Labor Department. Import prices rose 1.7 percent in July and consumer prices increased 0.8 percent for the same period, the Labor Department said last week. Both figures were higher than estimated.

Construction of single-family homes fell 2.9 percent to a 641,000 rate, the fewest since January 1991, today's report showed. Work on multifamily homes, such as townhouses and apartment buildings, dropped 24 percent from the prior month to an annual rate of 324,000.

`Bad' News

``The news ahead for housing remains bad,'' Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview. ``There's a corrective process we have to get through here.''

The decrease in starts was led by a 30 percent decline in the Northeast. Construction fell 8.2 percent in both the South and West. Starts in the West slumped to a 26-year low. The Midwest showed a 10 percent gain.

The magnitude of the July drop in the Northeast reflected, in part, a payback from an unexpected surge the prior month. Starts and permits jumped in June as builders hurried to break ground ahead of new regulations in New York City's building code that took effect July 1.

Underneath the gyrations, demand is weakening. Sales of existing homes fell to a 10-year low in the second quarter, according to the National Association of Realtors. A third of all sales were foreclosures or ``short sales,'' in which lenders take a loss on a property.

Financing is also becoming tougher, a quarterly survey of banks by the Federal Reserve showed. Compared with the April survey, more of the loan officers polled reported they tightened standards on prime mortgage loans and on non-traditional loans.

Toll on Retailers

The slumping U.S. economy is taking its toll on retailers from luxury chain Saks Inc. to discounter Target Corp., reports showed today. Saks reported its largest quarterly loss in two years, while profit dropped for a fourth straight quarter at Target. Home Depot Inc., the biggest home improvement chain, posted its seventh sales decline in eight quarters.

Falling retailer earnings may signal that the U.S. economy will deteriorate further as consumers rein in spending to cope with rising unemployment and inflation. Home Depot Chief Executive Officer Frank Blake told analysts today he was ``cautious'' about consumer spending through mid-2009.

The five largest U.S. homebuilders reported a combined $1.08 billion in losses in their most recent quarters.

Builders are pessimistic as losses mount. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo's sentiment index yesterday showed optimism held at a record low in August for a second month.

I've said this for many moons that the final upshot of printing TRILLIONS to "bail out" the housing mess would be STAGFLATION. Growth is coming to a halt anyway, but our government in its infinite wisdom, has decided to liquify (think throw-in-blender) the US economy.

And another theme that I think will become even more important is The Marginalizing of The United States on the World platform. We will still be important. But we'll be like Great Britain. Flash in the Pan fuck-ups who royally screwed themselves.

What's the next shoe to drop? Credit Cards:

The next credit crunch
Our easy access to plastic is about to dry up - and with it our ability to fake living the good life.
By Geoff Colvin, senior editor at large
Last Updated: August 20, 2008: 1:15 PM EDT

(Fortune Magazine) -- We made it through the bursting of the Internet bubble and now the bursting of the real estate bubble. Next we may be approaching the end of the most worrisome bubble of all: the standard-of-living bubble.

That conclusion comes from the latest data on credit card debt. It's growing fast, but the problem is bigger than that - and to understand what it means, we have to take a few steps back.

For the past several years, the average inflation-adjusted total pay of American workers hasn't been increasing. That means we haven't been building a foundation for increases in our living standard. You might be tempted to say that by definition our living standard couldn't have increased, but that's not quite right. Even with stagnant real incomes, we can always live a little better every year through borrowing and pretending that our living standard is still rising, just as it was for decades.

So the Great Bull Market made us feel rich, and we felt justified in saving less and borrowing - and spending - more.

After stocks collapsed, home prices took off, making us feel rich all over again. So we continued saving less and spending more, creating the illusion that our living standard was still rising. In 2005 our personal savings rate went negative, but even that didn't slow us down, because our homes were still appreciating - and rising home values meant that household net worths weren't declining. (Don't be fooled by that saving-rate spike in this year's second quarter; it was probably a one-time event resulting from the federal stimulus payments.)

Of course, we don't hear those assurances anymore. Stocks are back where they were eight years ago, and home prices are where they were five years ago. But personal debt is much higher than ever before, and average pay is still going nowhere in real terms. So now how do we live as if our living standard is still rising?
End of easy money

That's where the credit card reports come in. Last year, just as the subprime crisis happened, credit card debt took off. The home-equity ATM had been shut down, so people turned to the last source of easy money they had left, the most expensive debt on the menu, credit card borrowing.

Since credit card debt has been growing much faster than the economy - more than 8% in last year's third and fourth quarters and over 7% in May (the most recent month reported)- people are apparently using it as a substitute for income. Thus, for the past year or so we have still maintained the standard-of-living illusion.

But a big crunch is coming - and here's why. Credit card debt, like mortgage debt, gets bundled, securitized, and sold off by banks. Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), one of America's largest credit card lenders, just reported that it lost $176 million in the second quarter through securitizing such debt. That happens when the buyers of those securities observe rising delinquency rates and rising interest rates, and decide the debt is worth less than Citi thought. More generally, the amount of credit card debt that is securitized nationwide has plunged by more than half in the past five months because it's getting riskier. That means credit card issuers will be charging customers higher interest rates, and since the banks can't offload as much of the debt as before, they'll have less money to lend to cardholders.

The squeeze has already started, which is why Congress is in the process of passing the Credit Cardholders' Bill of Rights, which would prevent issuers from changing rates and terms without warning, among many other provisions. But bottom line, the credit card money window is going to start closing - and soon.

So now what? It's hard to see where consumers can turn next. Home prices seem highly unlikely to start rising again soon. Stocks? You never know, but the Great Bull Market looks like a once-in-a-lifetime event. Homes and stocks are households' biggest asset classes by far. There isn't much else to borrow against.

It may be that the standard-of-living bubble finally has to deflate. Sustainable increases in living standards have to be earned, not borrowed, and that means performing ever higher value work that can't be outsourced. We haven't been meeting that challenge very well; doing so will probably require much more and better education for millions of Americans, which takes time and money.

The result may feel like deprivation, but I don't see it that way. Who knows - we might even find that living within our means and saving a little money actually isn't so bad.

I love that saying: FAKE LIVING THE GOOD LIFE.

Who does that remind you of? I know, "America". But WHICH AMERICANS?

Hmmm hm. Cali-Bangers. Cali-Bangers are living in the Biggest Meth Den in The World; California. A place where absolutely no one has a fucking clue what's really going on. The Cali-Banger will suffer a withdrawal so severe, that I actually believe many of them will WAKE UP WHITE PEEPUL and get the fuck outta there.

Again, you can be forgiven if you have come here from Cali: Lie prostrate on the ground groveling before every native Bendite and beg forgiveness for a hundred years of theft, rape, and murder. Do that and your men shall live. Do it not, and every one of you will die today.

Gat damn Braveheart! Well, anyway, you get the picture.

This country has been living some sort of credit-fueled dream, and it's about to become a nightmare. We ain't got the 36DDDDD's. We crack-ass ugly. We have been living a fantasy, and it will fall apart because all such things do. They must. We will either wake up or DIE.

Ask Jay Audia. You see Pollock KILLING himself over this shit? Fuck no, he's in MEXICO getting his 2" cock sucked by little boys. In Bend, once people wake up from the Cracker Nighmare, They fucking kill themselves.

Barriers To Exit are high in this Meth Den. YOUR MONEY OR YOUR LIFE. Those are the costs to get out.

Why are NO HOMES SELLING? Cuz they can't bring themselves to believe they are what they are. They believed the Grandmaster Pimp. They think they got the 36DDDD's. Everyone in Bend is an Olympic Athelete, right?

But ain't none of us Angelina Jolie. We just stupid Whitey. And until people wake up & CUT THEIR FUCKING PRICES IN HALF OR MORE, nothing will sell here. Just like no one really ever leaves whoring. They just take "breaks". Costs to exit are in your head, and that shit is hard to undo.

This is a town of HEDONISTS, because that is EXACTLY WHAT BEND MEDIA wants here. HEDONISTS will take the KOOL-AID, and not care what happens on The Back End. Even if it's losing everything. Hell, even if it's dying.

GROWTH: Funny thing how some things have Unintended Consequences. We started a War with Iraq, whose main consequence was enriching our enemies at a rate untold in history.

And the Growth Industry? Who knew it's primary byproduct is DEATH?

That's Bend. We reeled in every crack-addled hedonist for 1,000 miles and know we will either use them up so completely that they won't recognize themselves when they leave, or we will bury them.

Thanks Bend Media & Boss Hogg.


659 comments:

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Anonymous said...

Looking at the National City map Bend is 46.6% overvalued. The last time we we fairly valued was 2001-2002 with median prices in the $150-160k area. Since median values have go up since then I would think fairly valued now would be in the $185k range.

Anonymous said...

We're near $240k now marge, and we're 2+ years away from Bend's bottom, while I concur there will be an uptick say in Atlanta next year ( 2009 ), Bend lagging National for two years, will be 2011 before bottom.

Years ago on this blog we all concurred $180k, that's still -60% of the high. In 2005 Bend was 70% over-valued.

Trouble is we'll over-correct, before we stabilize, there is too much dark-matter, and too many second homes in Bend, and NO buyers.

It's going to be closer to $120k than $180k, when this is at bottom.

Anonymous said...

I was struck listening to Cindy Mc$ane's speech about cluster-bombs, and land-mines, associating herself with PRINCESS-DI, and that she would a gentle and caring first lady.

I found this odd. Didn't SHRUB some 8+ years ago say his admin would be "Kinder & Gentler?"

Then there is the issue of BIDEN, who says that ISRAEL needs to use MORE cluster-bombs, and land-mines to fight Palestinians in the war against 'terrorism'.

What is the wrong with this picture when DEM's are PRO CLUSTER, and REPUG's ANTI CLUSTER??

HBM, can you explain this? I have seen no where where TEAM OR-BOMB-EO has opposed cluster, yet its being openly condemned by TEAM Mc$ane.

Anonymous said...

Stocks are going to go below 11k today.

Anonymous said...

I agree that we will over correct however I don't believe it will go below $150k. Bets? Needless to say we have another 50% to go and another 800 RE folks to get outta Dodge.It's going to be a long, hard and 6% paycheckless winter.

PopGoesBend said...

National City has our Median at $285k and 46% over valued.

285,000/1.46 = 195,205

$195,205 is what they say is fairly valued.

When we drop below that - and we will - Bend will be under valued.

Whether or not you agree that it is under valued at that point doesn't matter, just like when agents said that #1 over-valued didn't matter. We can't have it both ways - that National City is telling the truth now and will be lying later. Be prepared for lots of media coverage and talking from agents when we do hit $195k.

I personally think $160k as a low.

Anonymous said...

We were openly condemned here 2+ years ago when buster & homer said $180k, now we can argue how far below $180k.

First of all folks, there are craps shacks today near Bend for under $100k.

Their are NOD's being short-saled today for under $180k.

We'll see lots of homes in Bend for $120k.

The problem as I said at the beginning here 'medians don't mean shit'.

We have tons of 2005 $1M home, how low will they go depends on location.

We have tons of 2005 $500k eastside homes, now those bitches will go south of $120k.

Then there is MY favorite, around Drake Park, nice 3bd,2bth, walk to Newport Mkt, that shit will stay about $200k, even in the worst or very near.

Even at $100k or less, the east-side crap shacks will still be over-valued.

Anonymous said...

Hello I'm an international reporter, and we would like to off bilbo-buster-pedro a Pulitzer Prize. Does anybody know how to contact this person of interest??

tim said...

>>I agree that we will over correct however I don't believe it will go below $150k.

Oh Marge, they will. How can they not?

tim said...

>>Whether or not you agree that it is under valued at that point doesn't matter, just like when agents said that #1 over-valued didn't matter. We can't have it both ways - that National City is telling the truth now and will be lying late.

Logic failure there.

Suppose I don't think National City's methodology is sound. Then it's easy for me to agree with them when they say it's overvalued, but for me to say they're wrong when they say it's undervalued.

tim said...

>>Be prepared for lots of media coverage and talking from agents when we do hit $195k.

Irrelevant.

We've already learned that happy talk doesn't sell houses.

The ability to get a loan sells houses.

tim said...

>>The problem as I said at the beginning here 'medians don't mean shit'.

Well, they mean something, but you're 100% right in the sense that they don't mean what people THINK they mean. The only measure I like is Case-Shiller, and it's only done for major markets. OFHEO did not include jumbos during the boom (because FNM and FRE were not purchasing them), and there were a shitload of jumbos a few years ago.

All we have is the sniff test.

Biggest problem--we are going to go down below the home ownership rates on the 1991-1992 time period Marge talks about. It'll be five years before the short sellers and foreclosure kiddies can buy again, and 10 before most of them will.

So we're down to investors and cash flow.

tim said...

Even when prices bottom in nominal terms, they will continue to drop for a few years in real terms.

The key to it all is human nature and expectations.

It's important to remember that when the Nasdaq had fallen from 5000 to 2000 in the space of a year, when you asked people how long it would take to bounce back the answer was from 1 to 3 years. An answer of 5 years was inconceivable.

A year and a half later, it was down below 1200. It's around 2250 now.

It's been 7.5 years since the peak and 5 years since the trough. How many more years until 5000?

And after you answer that, remember we're talking nominal terms, not real terms.

tim said...

Florida is finishing their pain. But don't forget that the real pain in California is coming in a year or two as the option ARMS reset. A whole new, giant wave for forced selling.

OK. I'm done.

What do you think now, Marge?

LavaBear said...

Columbia Bancorp to Exit Mortgage Business
By: PAUL JACKSON
September 5, 2008


Columbia Bancorp (CBBO: 4.29 +3.87%), the holding company of Columbia River Bank, said Friday it will exit the mortgage business and eliminate nearly 75 jobs. The Oregon-based company said in a press statement that it was looking to “streamline its overall business operations in response to the current banking environment.”

“Columbia’s decision to no longer operate an in-house mortgage lending service was necessary because of the uncertainty in the mortgage markets and the risk associated with the industry,” said Roger Christensen, Columbia’s CEO. “This will allow us to focus on our core business services, a central point of our management team’s vision for the future.”

It’s telling that mortgage banking is now being seen as a “risky” venture; it wasn’t too long ago that more than a few regional banks viewed mortgages as a key component of revenue expansion.

Columbia operates 22 branches in Oregon and Washington, and said it asked each division of the bank to make additional strategic cost-saving contributions.

“We recognize the impact these actions will have on the employees and their families,” said board chairman Richard Betz. “Management and the board carefully evaluated the reduction in order to minimize the impact on the communities we serve and to preserve shareholder value.”

For his part, Christensen will see a 23 percent pay cut as his contribution to cost-cutting; the CEO’s base salary in 2006, the most recent period information on his employment contract is available via the Securities and Exchange Commission, was set at $250,000 per year.

Columbia will incur a third-quarter severance-related expense of approximately $139 thousand, with overall salary and benefit cost savings estimated at $4.2 million annually. “While a reduction in force is a challenging event for any organization, we are doing everything possible to ease the situation by providing severance pay and other separation benefits,” Christensen said.

tim said...

Wow. What Central Oregon bank will be next to run crying?

Anonymous said...

Mc$ane announces today, post nomination, that he is NO LONGER A REPUBLICAN. I guess know we know, Mc$ane is a LIEBERMAN.

***

New nominee McCain distances himself from GOP
USA Today - 2 hours ago
By David Jackson, USA TODAY CEDARBURG, Wis. - On his first day as the official Republican Party nominee for president, John McCain distanced himself from the Republican Party.
McCain, Obama Vie For 'Reformist' Mantle Washington Post
McCain reaches to the middle Denver Post

Anonymous said...

Even when prices bottom in nominal terms, they will continue to drop for a few years in real terms.

The key to it all is human nature and expectations.

*

Exactly TIM, and lets ADD one other factor, ownership got to almost 70%, I FIRMLY feel it will fall below 50%, too many people have been hurt too bad, to ever fall for the 'home ownership' CON, ever again.

Same for the stock-market, bonds, money-market, too many people lost too much money, and we're going to have a whole new DEPRESSION generation that keeps what they can in the mattress.

Anonymous said...

“Columbia’s decision to no longer operate an in-house mortgage lending service was necessary because of the uncertainty in the mortgage markets and the risk associated with the industry,”

*

This is just the beginning, remember buster said, once we're get even close to the bottom, you'll not be able to borrow money for RE even if you wanted to.

The end times of available money are coming very soon, those fence sitters, the deals are out there today, in the form of short-sales; Marge posted a nice little Newport the other day for under $180k.

Near $150k things pencil for rentals, trouble is next year there may be no money. It will take years for the new administration to 'fix' RE MTG's with new FEDERAL BACKED guarantees to bring back investors, who are now OUT.

Anonymous said...

OFHEO did not include jumbos during the boom (because FNM and FRE were not purchasing them), and there were a shitload of jumbos a few years ago.

*

Yes, ALL of fucking BEND 2004->2006 WAS JUMBO, nuttin down, interest only; what were the numbers marge? How many 1,000's of home in the AREA sold from 2002->2007??? The pain the pain, you haven't seen anything yet in Bend.

Anonymous said...

Sorry tim, I didn't see your comment about people no longer owning homes, I always do last-out, first-out when I comment back.

Your talking more about people not getting to buy in ten years that want to BUY, almost all the people I know that are losing their homes are saying ... NEVER A FUCKING AGAIN, WILL I OWN A HOME.

My Realtors friends down in SO-CALI are now living in 5-10 in a home, where one in ten still has his/her home. Realtors that were hot 1992->2006 are now homeless and living like squatters in their friends home. Most of these people are so fucking angry at home ownership, that they'll never go back, and most are over 50. These folks MADE NOTHING BUT money 70's->2006, and unlike our MARGE they always maintained LEVERAGE, and when it blew, they lost everything.

The killer was cash-flow, so MANY fucking SUCKERS bought the MYTH of the BULL, that it would be short, that if you kept the payments up on your flippers, you could hold over, well that FUCKED the cash savings and quick, now its a Mountain of REPO's.

These folks are 1-2 years ahead of BEND.

I'm just mentioning realtors, there is the MTG loan folk, title, construction, all that had 1,2,3, or more flippers are cash-poor.

Not many people in the industry like our Marge, that own their home, and put away some cash, and don't have a HIGH BURN rate.

The ONLY SO-CALI realtors I know that still have their home, are the ones that didn't have second or thirds, all those people are living with 'friends' now.

Anonymous said...

The ability to get a loan sells houses.

*

Yes, and allow me to repeat what KILLED my friends in CALI.

They have plenty of BUYERS, and PLENTY of SELLERS.

The problem is that nobody can sell their home for what they OWE. Thus the ENTIRE Real-Estate SCAM in SO-CALI has come to a screeching HALT, most I know down there, have NOT seen a singe commission for over two years now.

tim said...

Fannie and Freddie were taken out back and shot after hours.

Big meetings put idiotic loans to dummies on the taxpayer's back.

We are all going to pay for the crooks and morons who played.

Bewert said...

Re: FNM, etc.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9L5St2a4GdU&refer=home

The end is nigh...

Bewert said...

Timmy, what do you think the odds are on Fannie and Freddie making it to Monday? 50/50?

Bewert said...

"An announcement may come as early as this weekend, the Journal said. Treasury spokeswoman Brookly Mclaughlin declined to comment on the contents of the article.

...

Paulson was scheduled to meet today with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and the heads of Fannie, Freddie and the Federal Housing Finance Agency, the Journal said. "

What's next?

Nothing until next year at least as far as more RE lending.

tim said...

>>Timmy, what do you think the odds are on Fannie and Freddie making it to Monday? 50/50?

Not sure. This will probably temporarily help the other financials.

Anonymous said...

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac to be Put Under Federal Control, Sources Say

By David S. Hilzenrath, Neil Irwin, and Zachary A.Goldfarb
Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, September 5, 2008; 8:33 PM

The government has formulated a plan to put troubled mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under federal control, dismiss their top executives, and use government funds to prop them up, government officials told the two companies yesterday, according to sources familiar with the conversations.

Under the plan, the federal government would place the firms in a legal state known as conservatorship, the sources said. The value of the company's common stock would be diluted but not wiped out while the holdings of other securities, including company debt and preferred shares, would be protected by the government.

Instead of giving each company a big capital infusion up front, the government plans to make quarterly infusions as the companies' losses warrant, the sources said. This would be an attempt to minimize the initial cost of the rescue.

As the pace of discussions accelerated today, Treasury officials contacted senior congressional leaders, telling them they might be briefed on the plan this weekend and asking for telephone numbers at which they could be reached.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have backed 70 percent of new mortgages in recent months, but have incurred vast losses on their loan portfolios as the housing market has tanked. Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr., the architect of the plan, and other government leaders have said the companies remain vital to preventing an even broader financial crisis and economic downturn.

The chief executives of the two companies were called into afternoon meetings today at the 17th Street NW offices of the Federal Housing Finance Administration, their direct regulator, according to sources familiar with the events.

Executives of the two companies were told to show up without being told of an agenda. Daniel Mudd, chief executive of Fannie Mae, was accompanied by outside lawyers. He showed up at around 3 p.m. for a two hour meeting. Richard Syron, chief executive of Freddie Mac, started his meeting at around 5 p.m., accompanied by several members of the Freddie Mac board.

Paulson, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, James Lockhart, the director of the housing finance regulator told the executives of the plan, which would strip them of their jobs.

Anonymous said...

Fannie and Freddie were taken out back and shot after hours.

Big meetings put idiotic loans to dummies on the taxpayer's back.

*

Hello boyz, have you not forgotten that for the past six years our favorite judges, congressman, and ... have been getting favorable $5M loans with nothing down to do as they wish.

Handing out candy money to the public is only the tip of the iceberg, there is a reason that F&F are TRILLIONS in the HOLE.

That said, everyone knew this shit was going down, they'll band-aid it, there is NO way in hell its going to be fixed until after the election.

Most 'telling' is that 70% of 'todays' finance has been handled by F&F, yes private money will not, and F&F's books are fucked.

The stock holders have already lost all.

I think we'll see a new federal home guarantee loan outfit, but not until 2010.

This 'fixup' of F&F is just to send in a bunch of lawyers to 'fix' the books, and take all the pol's and judges off the books, before OR-BOMB-EO gets ahold of the data.

It's a WHO's WHO in the Republican party of favoritism in the 100's BILLIONS that was handed out during the SHRUB years.

Anonymous said...

BP you'll like this the BANK-OF-McCain JUST WENT SOUTH(BK).

->

Wall Street Journal

Sept. 5, 2008

Regulators shut down Silver State Bank, the latest in a series of bank failures and one that could ripple through the presidential campaign.

Until recently, the son of Republican nominee Sen. McCain sat on Silver State's board and was a member of its three-person audit committee, which was responsible for overseeing the company's financial condition. Andrew McCain left the Henderson, Nev., bank July 26 after five months on the board, citing "personal reasons." He is Sen. McCain's adopted son from his first marriage.

Anonymous said...

So what you see is a desperate attempt to fix things up and run for high ground.

Mc$ane doesn't want the PREZ, hell his favorite bank went BK today.

He picked Palin so that the REPUG's would have a fresh face for 2012.

Mc$ain had to do this, bring in Lieberman, kiss the ass of Guiliani, suck SHRUB-BUSH cock. Cuz, Mc$ain ass is on the line, not seen such since the 1980's and the S&L collapse.

Right now the Repug's are burning records everywhere so that nobody can follow the money.

Bewert said...

Buster, nasty but true.

From the WSJ article:

"Some $20 million of Silver State's $1.7 billion in deposits were uninsured by the FDIC, representing about 500 customer accounts, the agency said."

That hurts.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Geez, I should hammered or writing this weeks post.

I am neither.

Bewert said...

Hey, you got all day today, Saturday. It's sunny, perfect for gin and tonics...

Anonymous said...

Bilbo, just got this note on my blog: - BP

Am looking to talk to the author of this blog and/or bilbobend. Please contact me at annesaker@news.oregonian.com

*

Homer, I sent an email to BP, and I'm asking YOU, this women is writing a story about OUR blogs. She seems to think that 'bilbo' is the leader, I think because on the suicide stuff a few weeks ago Dunc said that 'bilbo' was the source of ALL information, which was a crock of shit. Most of what we 'know' about Bend suicides came from 'marge'.

Given that HOMER&BP have ego's the size of BEND, would one of you please call this women.

She wants a telephone interview, and she wants someone to 'educate' her on the Bend Developers. It's should be someone that has been around for while.

Anonymous said...

Troubles spread to prime Md. mortgages
4.3 percent of strong borrowers behind on payments

By Jamie Smith Hopkins
September 6, 2008

*

It's now over 5% if you talk to insiders.

Think about that for a moment TT&HOMEE 1 in 20 aren't paying!!! Which means they're paying 5% late fee's, which just makes it worse.

Anonymous said...

Here's a good article about how even now 'bottom feeders' are making money from SUCKER's who did'nt play the flip. Basically given that MONEY is no longer available to people with FUCKED credit. Here you can tap 7% of value as CASH-NOW, if you promise to give THEM future GAIN. I'm sure the small print is that they also get the house when they call your loan and your equity goes below their 7%. The point is even now, there are 'investors' fucking people this late in the game!!!

Of course this whole charade is BACKED by AIG, one of the MOST sleazy BUSH-TRIBE insurance company's around. In summary even in this economy, "Heads we win, Tail you lose".

***

Ways to tap home equity without taking on mortgage debt

Improbable as it sounds at a time when American homeowners have lost billions in equity holdings, a new industry is taking shape to help them tap portions of their equity wealth without incurring traditional mortgage debt or making interest payments.

By Kenneth R. Harney

Syndicated Columnist

Improbable as it sounds at a time when American homeowners have lost billions in equity holdings, a new industry is taking shape to help them tap portions of their equity wealth without incurring traditional mortgage debt or making interest payments.

Three companies with sophisticated capital market backers — Rex & Co., Equity Key and Grander Financial — are offering cash to owners who agree to cut them into some of the future appreciation of their properties.

The cash typically represents a fraction of the current market value of the home and rises with the percentage of future appreciation the owner is willing to share.

For example, San Francisco-based Rex offers $70,000 cash to the owner of a $900,000 house who is willing to share 30 percent of future appreciation. That rises to $117,000 in exchange for a 50 percent share.

Existing equity in the home — and future value growth attributable to capital improvements — are not affected by the deal.

There are no interest rates or monthly payments, and the timing of the end of the agreement usually is up to the owner.

Unlike a reverse mortgage, where interest charges accrue and are added to the total debt that must be repaid, all of Rex's receivables are tied to the future growth — or decline — in the value of the real estate.

If values go down, Rex takes a loss equal to the percentage of the value change it shared in the agreement. If values remain flat, the homeowner repays the amount of the original cash extended by Rex.

But if values grow steadily or even boom, the company's returns have the potential to soar. Rex — which says it writes agreements in 13 states, including Washington and Oregon — is backed by American International Group (AIG), the world's largest insurance company, and the Royal Bank of Scotland's Connecticut-based Greenwich Capital Markets subsidiary.

Tjarko Leifer, Rex managing director, says "We see ourselves at the beginning of a much larger industry" focused on providing products to efficiently tap the $9 trillion of equity held by homeowners.

Unlike reverse mortgages, which usually are restricted to homeowners 62 or older and often entail significant fees, Rex has no minimum age limit and relatively modest transaction fees.

Participants must have a minimum 25 percent equity stake, however. Their total mortgage debt cannot exceed 75 percent of the home's market value.

advertising

The company's typical clients, said Liefer, are 56-year-old baby boomers with a 50 percent equity stake in their homes. They've built up equity over the years and "want to protect what they've already got." But they also want some money for investments, personal spending or to buy more property.

Competitor Equity Key offers similar cash payouts in exchange for shares of future appreciation, but its age minimum is 65. Based in San Diego, Equity Key is a subsidiary of KBC Bank, a Belgium-financial institution with $450 billion in assets.

The third player, Grander Financial, is headed by mortgage-industry entrepreneur Anthony Hsieh, who founded and sold two major home-loan companies — LoansDirect.com, which became E-Trade Mortgage; and Home Loan Center, which merged into LendingTree.

He says his goal is "to create a geographically diverse" portfolio of investments tied to equity movements on homes across the country that will deliver at least moderate growth rates over the coming years, even if some regional markets go soft.

Under Grander's "My Equity Freedom" program, the owner of a $500,000 house can receive an immediate $71,429 lump-sum payment in exchange for agreeing to share 50 percent of future appreciation. The owners of a $1 million house could get $142,857 in cash upfront for sharing half of their future appreciation.

What's in the fine print of these cash-for-appreciation deals and why are they not for everybody?

• First: All of the programs to date are highly targeted toward specific property types. For example, Rex does not allow condos, duplexes, town houses, rentals, tenants-in-common dwellings or houses that are not single-family, detached homes typical for their area.

• Second: Although sponsors bend over backward to emphasize these programs are not mortgage debt, they are real-estate financing deals that give sponsors the legal right to a portion of an owner's future market value.

At the extreme, owners who take the money but do not abide by the contract agreements can face legal remedies, including foreclosure.

tim said...

>>Think about that for a moment TT&HOMEE 1 in 20 aren't paying!!!

It's astounding, and points out how geared people were to never-ending housing appreciation.

I have a feeling some of those would have been fine if they could have adjusted their lifestyle on a dim when housing started falling. But, of course, we're human.

Again, watch what happens to California over the next couple years. They want benefits without taxes, and that will cream them as the option arms reset in 2010.

tim said...

timmytoe knows a lot, but what timmytoe knows best is that timmytoe is an ignorant human, like most humans.

So timmytoe has a question for people who know real estate inside and out. So buster, Marge, and other experienced landlords, Realtors, mortgage brokers, and bankers can help educate me.

We know from reading news over the last couple of years that Californians took out an ungodly number of terrifying loans. But we also know that the loans Oregonians took out are less scary.

So tell me this. When Californians took loans to buy Bend houses, do the stats for that end up in the OR column or the CA column? Do we have more horrifying loans in Bend than the numbers seem to indicate? Because I've heard a lot of that line, "Oh no, people in Bend didn't take out crazy loans like the Californians did."

Anonymous said...

TT,

I think the 'code word' here is that Bend is "Fed by Cali".

Cali is FUCKED, which means there is NOW nobody to feed Bend.

I think given the drive Seattle folk can just as well these days do WallyWorld for SUN/WINE. PDX people who can buy did buy. PDX is what made Sunriver, and Salem made Black-BUTT.

The ENTIRE Bend-BUBBLE was cali amenity locust feeding Bend. Pre 2002 folk sold and doubled their bets on Prineville, Redmond, Madras, LA-PINES.

It's easy to say that 1/2 of Bend is cali-feeder in the last six years. A majority will do 'jingle-mail' to quote Marge, given they paid HIGH, and it will take a generation to see neutrality in loss.

I think that PDX is NOT scary, but Bend & Medford are scary. This is where the Calis bought with nothing down, interest-only, 5/1 ARMS. Which will reset now to 2012, and with NEGATIVE equity they'll ALL 'jingle mail', as they all bought to make a PROFIT, and NOT a loss.

Then the issue of 4X or more in driving to Bend from North-Cali on the weekend.

Another interesting thing I'm seeing as an old-timer is that all these early 1990 Cali's who retired in Black-Butt or Sunriver, are moving to Bend, as the 1-1/2 hr drive in the winter to shop or doctor is killing them after ten years. Ok, when your 60, not when your 70.

Thus today we'll see a complete collapse in Siberian retirement housing, and nice steady demand for stuff that is walking distance to the Bend Post Office.

Anonymous said...

"Oh no, people in Bend didn't take out crazy loans like the Californians did."

*

There is no simple push-button answer to this assertion, its very complex, which is why we have been writing about the issue for 2+ years.

The trouble is EVERYONE that bought in Bend post 2002, did so because they were supposed to get 25%/yr APR forever, always had, always will!

These 'buyers' are now 6+ years into the truth, now it's 25%/yr loss always have always will post 2006, and on to 2012, with low stabilization, and no hope of up until 2018 ( next baby boom cycle ).

I don't think the issue is 'crazy loans', the issue is too many people didn't BUY BEND to stay in Bend, they bought Bend cuz it was a 'FAD', the FAD is now over. Nothing more FICKLE than a CALI, like HOMERS post these past two weeks, your talking about people who do things cuz what other people think.

It's over, and this place will empty out to below 50k, this is what we should be talking about NOT medians, but population.

Anonymous said...

HBM+BP,

Read this from Canada.

OR-BOMB-EO, & Mc$ane are the SAME.

McSame = McCain+OR-BOMB-EO

Obama on his knees

The most important factor propping up both the Bush administration and the Republican presidential campaign is the complicity and cowardice of the Democratic Party. McCain’s claim to be leading an insurgency against the government of his own party is undoubtedly preposterous, but he is able to adopt this posture with at least a fig leaf of credibility because the Democratic Party does not fulfill the role of an “opposition” party in any serious sense.

Obama’s performance Thursday on Fox television’s “The O’Reilly Factor” was a case in point. After winning the Democratic nomination in large measure because of his purported opposition to the war in Iraq, Obama has sought repeatedly to demonstrate to the US political establishment that he can be a credible commander in chief for American imperialism.

He told O’Reilly that he “absolutely” believed that the United States was engaged in a worldwide war against terrorism, including not only Al Qaeda and the Taliban, but “a whole host of networks that are bent on attacking America who have a distorted ideology.”

Obama described Iran as a “major threat,” and said it would be “unacceptable” to an Obama administration for Iran to possess nuclear weapons. “It would be a game-changer,” he said, adding, “I would never take a military option off the table.” He called for a more aggressive military posture towards Pakistan, the day after a major US military strike within that country.

But his starkest reversal came on Iraq, as O’Reilly pressed him to admit that the Bush administration’s troop “surge,” the escalation of the war by the addition of some 30,000 US combat troops, had been a success. Obama has sought to dance around the issue for months, but he finally embraced the surge emphatically on Thursday.

“I think that the surge has succeeded in ways that nobody anticipated,” he said, adding, “It’s succeeded beyond our wildest dreams.” This demonstrates not only Obama’s cringing submission to the pressure of the right wing, but a staggering degree of political blindness. Like Bush, Cheney, McCain and the rest of official Washington, Obama truly believes that US imperialism can, by military force alone, impose its will on the world. His only disagreement is with the Bush administration’s obsessive focus on Iraq, which Obama and many other spokesmen for the military and foreign policy establishment believe has undermined US interests in other parts of the globe.

The Democratic Party is a capitalist party that defends the same social interests as the Republicans—the massive fortunes of the superrich financial aristocracy which is the real ruling force in American society. The Democrats play a specific role in the political division of labor: while the Republicans consistently and unabashedly uphold the rights of the wealthy, the Democrats pretend to represent working people, while ensuring that there is no challenge from below to the profit system.

This division of labor explains the half-hearted and spineless performance of the Democrats in the current presidential campaign. Obama, Biden & Co. are at pains to demonstrate that they will make no appeal to mass discontent that goes beyond what is acceptable to the ruling elite. The Democrats offer their services to the financial oligarchy to win at least a certain degree of mass support for the reactionary program that both parties fundamentally share.

Anonymous said...

HOMER,

Prove your not a cunt. Write something about POLLOCK and imprisoning his former employees for bitching about not getting paychecks.

SPEAK-UP, this could be what happens of many of Bend MTG, Realtors, and Contractors; Their employers have them arrested for asking for bread.

tim said...

Obama and McCain will do the same thing in Iraq. At least at first. They will follow the recommendations of Petraeus, because he is the only person in the United States that has any credibility in that war.

Neither Obama nor McCain could go against Petraeus without buying the war from Bush the way Nixon bought Vietnam from Johnson.

Anonymous said...

excerpts from the NY Times:

September 7, 2008
Loan Giant Overstated the Size of Its Capital Base
By GRETCHEN MORGENSON and CHARLES DUHIGG

The government’s planned takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, expected to be announced as early as this weekend, came together hurriedly after advisers poring over the companies’ books for the Treasury Department concluded that Freddie’s accounting methods had overstated its capital cushion, according to regulatory officials briefed on the matter.

Then, last week, advisers from Morgan Stanley hired by the Treasury Department to scrutinize the companies came to a troubling conclusion: Freddie Mac’s capital position was worse than initially imagined, according to people briefed on those findings. The company had made decisions that, while not necessarily in violation of accounting rules, had the effect of overstating the companies’s capital resources and financial stability.

Indeed, one person briefed on the company’s finances said Freddie Mac had made accounting decisions that pushed losses into the future and postponed a capital shortfall until the fourth quarter of this year, which would not need to be disclosed until early 2009. Fannie Mae has used similar methods, but to a lesser degree, according to other people who have been briefed.

Accusations of questionable accounting are not new for either company. Earlier this decade, both companies paid large fines and ousted their top executives after accounting scandals.

Freddie Mac’s current chief executive and chairman, Richard F. Syron, joined the company in 2003 after the former managers revealed they had manipulated earnings by almost $5 billion. The following year Fannie Mae’s chief executive, Daniel H. Mudd, was promoted to the top spot after that company was accused of accounting errors totaling $6.3 billion. People familiar with Treasury’s plan say that both men, as well as other executives, will be forced to leave the companies.

The accounting issues that brought so much urgency to the bailout appear to center on Freddie Mac’s capital cushion, the assets that regulators require them to keep on hand to cover losses.

The methods used to bolster that cushion have caused serious concerns among the companies’ regulator, outside auditors and some investors. For example, while Freddie Mac’s portfolio contains many securities backed by subprime loans, made to the riskiest borrowers, and alt-A loans, one step up on the risk ladder, the company has not written down the value of many of those loans to reflect current market prices.

Executives have said that they intend to hold the loans to maturity, meaning they will be worth more, and they need not write down their value. But other financial institutions have written down similar securities, to comply with “mark-to-market” accounting rules. Freddie Mac holds roughly twice as many of those securities as Fannie Mae.

Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have also inflated their financial positions by relying on deferred-tax assets — credits accumulated over the years that can be used to offset future profits. Fannie maintains that its worth is increased by $36 billion through such credits, and Freddie argues that it has a $28 billion benefit.

But such credits have no value unless the companies generate profits. They have failed to do so over the last four quarters and seem increasingly unlikely to the next year. Moreover, even when the companies had soaring profits, such credits often could not be used. That is because the companies were already able to offset taxes with other credits for affordable housing.

Most financial institutions are not allowed to count such credits as assets. The credits cannot be sold and would disappear in a receivership. Removing those credits from assets would probably push both companies’ capital below the regulatory requirements.

Regulators are also said to be scrutinizing whether the companies were trying to manage their earnings by waiting to add to their reserves. Both companies have gradually increased their reserves for loan losses — Fannie’s reserves today stand at $8.9 billion, and Freddie’s at $5.8 billion.

Other companies, like private mortgage insurers, have been quicker to identify large losses and have set aside much greater amounts. Fannie and Freddie have dribbled out bad news with each quarterly announcement, suggesting they may be trying to manage this process.

Finally, regulators are concerned that the companies may have mischaracterized their financial health by relaxing their accounting policies on losses, according to people familiar with the review. For years, both companies have effectively recognized losses whenever payments on a loan are 90 days past due. But, in recent months, the companies said they would wait until payments were two years late. As a result, tens of thousands of loans have not been marked down in value.

The companies have injected their own capital into pools of securities containing these loans, arguing that their new policies are helping more borrowers.

Under conservative accounting methods, changing these policies would not have any impact on the companies’ books. However, people briefed on the accounting inquiry said that Freddie Mac may have delayed losses with the change.

“We have just had to nationalize the two largest financial institutions in the world because of policy makers’ inaction,” said Josh Rosner, an analyst at Graham Fisher, an independent research firm in New York, and a longtime critic of the government-sponsored enterprises. “Since 2003, when these companies’ accounting came under question, policy makers have done nothing. Even though they had every reason to know that the housing market’s problems would not be contained to subprime and would bring down the houses of Fannie and Freddie.”

Bewert said...

From the first screen of the BULL today:

What's going up?

September 6, 2008 4:00 am
[pic]
What: Bend Church of the Nazarene renovation

Where: 1270 N. E. 27th St., Bend

Owner: Bend Church of the Nazarene

Architect: Daniel Cook and Associates, Ogden, Utah

General contractor: Ryan General....MORE


They didn't even spend the design or construction money here in town--they used an Ogden, UT architect and a Woodinville, WA general contractor.

It's so pathetic it's kind of sad. In a maddening sort of way.

Costa, you need to get off your mule and join the reality-based world.

Bewert said...

That's a great fucking article.

Link: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/07/business/07fannie.html?hp

The real fallout is going to the almost $11B in common and preferred stock held mostly by institutions and investment banks.

$11B to ZERO.

That hurts.

Anonymous said...

HBM&BP agree, that OR-BOME-EO not just the MC-SAME on IRAQ, but ALSO FAN&FRED. Where is the FUCKING DIFF? Old White Man & Nigger Are McSame!!!

***

Oh dear, all that talk about Freddie and Fannie being "adequately capitalized" was utter bullshit and the government has now announced plans to place the failed government sponsored enterprises into conservatorship. That means the fate of the housing market and the global economy rest squarely on the shoulders of U.S. taxpayers.

Here's how it went down:

* Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told Fannie Mae CEO Daniel Mudd (whose name is good as...) and Freddie Mac CEO Richard Syron that they and their boards were fired.
* The companies will be placed into conservatorship of the Federal Housing Finance Agency.
* Common shareholders will be virtually wiped out. Preferred shareholders (banks) will be protected.
* Instead of providing a massive headline-grabbing infusion of cash upfront, the government will provide quarterly subsidies to cover losses.
* Freddie and Fannie will continue to operate normally, except taxpayers will be on the hook for future losses.

The two companies collectively back almost half of the nation's $12 trillion mortgages, and 70% of new mortgages. They have lost $14 billion over the past year.

Both Obama and McCain announced that they support the plan, not that either of them can veto the Bush Administration's takeover.

The Treasury made its move now partly to reassure Mexico, Japan, and China that their central banks' shares of the Depression-era institutions will be backed by you.

Isn't that great?!

Bewert said...

It's absolutely amazing how much taxpayers have ended up bearing under the Repug regimes of the last 40 years. From Ronnie's S&L bailout (with help from McDrill) through Bear Stearns and now both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The party of private profits and public losses.

Not saying that some of the Dem shit don't suck, like the Biden BK bill and Obama's capitulation on FISA, but WTF with our money.

Bewert said...

Buster, there is a huge diff. Estate tax is just the start. Get over it.

tim said...

Bruce, you don't know much except talking points, do you? Look into how the S&L mess started. The Wikipedia article is a fine start.

If you ever show any glimpse that you get reality at all, I might stop thinking you are a cardboard cut-out.

Bewert said...

Timmy, yes, that was then--4 D's and a lone R in that BS, with Ronnie's minions help. That BS is what led to the Gingrich revolution in '94.

Right now I think things are on our side as far as less corruptness, although I'll leave Steney Hoyer out of that group. We have a very active grassroots movement (like DKos) that strenuously attacks corruption, both in the media and financially. That promotes and finances primary challenges against unworthy Dems.

It could almost be called populism.

Now, the cardboard cut-out thing.

That hurts.

Bewert said...

Somebody remind me--what big bailouts did we have under Clinton? There must have been a few.

Bewert said...

Amazingly, Alan Unger, Mayor of Redmond (which actually has a surplus of SDC's) just knocked on my door for his County Commissioner election campaign. We had a great five minute conversation about JR, Cooley Rd., etc.

He told me that Bend had $15M grant from the state for Cooley that we never did anything with. Redmond had $9M which they used on the bypass. Him and Friedman were at the meeting together when it was handed out. Interesting...

Good guy. I've met him several times before as well.

Bewert said...

BTW, Tim, I am aware that Dems have been prominent in building up Fannie and Freddie.

My belief is we need to try to take over the Dems, as the Reps are hopeless. Not exactly takeover everything, but actively out and run against Dems that we deem part of the machine/elite/whatever. To replace them with populists.

Anonymous said...

quote from Sarah Palin from today:

“The fact is that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, they have gotten too big and too expensive to the taxpayers. The McCain-Palin administration will make them smaller and smarter and more effective for homeowners who need help.”

didn't anyone tell her that these are publicly traded companies and not part of the government? is she also going to shake things up at GM and Microsoft to make them leaner and meaner?

things may get much worse before they get beter . . . .

Anonymous said...

Bruce, you don't know much except talking points, do you? Look into how the S&L mess started.
*

TT this is why he is everyones BP :>

Was it you or someone else that said there are name droppers, and BP's, BP's drop their own name, and frequently.

Anonymous said...

Amazingly, Alan Unger, Mayor of Redmond (which actually has a surplus of SDC's) just knocked on my door for his County Commissioner election campaign. We had a great five minute conversation about JR, Cooley Rd., etc.

*

Does he have a big dick? Did he fuck you in the cunt or the ass, or mouth?

Knock, Knock on Heavens door, in MORMRON wasteland.

Anonymous said...

Buster, there is a huge diff. Estate tax is just the start. Get over it.

*

BP, I agree with TT that your talking points are close to bar vomit.

OR-BOMB-EO goes on O'Rielly, and he is indistinguishable from from Mc$ane, and your only comment is 'estate tax'?

FYI, I'm one of those who feel, since I came into this world poor, so should all else, including my dependents, so I can give a fuck about estate tax.

I love this, OR-BOMB-EO goes on OREILLY and supports the 'surge', BIDEN loves cluster-bombs and so does OR-BOMB-EO, Cindy Mc$ane explicitly says she'll be the next princess-DI; Then you change the subject to estate taxes.

TT is right HBM&BP are systemically mind-fucked by the DEM party, incapable of pulling the head out their ass even for a moment.

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