Sunday, August 24, 2008

The Cult of Bend Claims Another Victim

An interesting week, we saw what is The Beginning Of End of the private financing of home mortgages.
Fannie Mae, 24 year chart

Freddie Mac, Lifetime chart

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac both began a collapse similar to the Bear Stearns debacle, although far grander in scale. There again will be a familiar sucking sound from the South, that is if you live directly North of D.C.

Look closely at these charts; there should be some instructive lessons to be learned about these two hugely leveraged levithans.

First, almost ALL bubbles have some sort of leverage available to the participants, and the Ultimate Fatalities will be those that lent to the masses. Why? Because when you lend to speculators (de rigueur in Bubble Times), and the loan is secured against the Bubble Goods, YOU are on the hook for any large scale losses, while the speculator WISELY plays the equity side, a call option without any real prospect of loss.

Second, leveraged institutions ALMOST ALWAYS are pulled into the maelstrom of what appears to be sound, prudent lines of business. Remember Lending To Brazil? Sure, sounds good, all they have to do is print whatever the hell sort of loser ass currency they have down there to pay us Wall St bigwigs off, right? Uh huh. That one didn't go well.

Finally, there will always exist the extremely remote chance of some sort of catastrophe completely destroying a otherwise prudent loan portfolio. It just happens. Small mid-west banks learned this during the floods of 1993. It just goes beyond their thinking that there will be a 1,000 Year Event during their lifetime.

It is the nature of banks to go broke. It is in their genome to go bust.

It's probably hard to remember now, but a year ago the idea of Freddie or Fannie going broke was so patently ridiculous, it was hardly even discussed in polite company. I remember I thought the sky was falling, but when Jimmy Rogers brought up the collapse of Fannie & Freddie, I thought he'd pretty much gone off his nut.

But look: Both institutions have wiped out a lifetime of gains, and will be summarily shot when the US Government takes over & begins operations under New Management.

And not to scare anyone, but these are the same people who INVADED IRAQ TO CONTROL OIL PRICES. THESE ARE THE SAME MOTHERFUCKERS WHO BOUGHT BEAR STEARNS DEBT. THESE FUCKERS RUN THE IRS.

The US Government is possibly the Worst Investor of All Time.

FNM & FRE securitized over half the mortgages in this country. What happens now that they are gone & Uncle Sam is now in the house? I honestly don't know, but I have a bad feeling that their track record speaks ill of what will befall all of us.

The End of An Era.

Moving on, I noted in the comments that Buena Vista homes' (built Forum Meadows STD clap trap crap shacks) is going into foreclosure.

Now, for the Noobs here, you should be aware that Wayyyyy back in mid December of last year, Roger Pollock, the anal dildo with arms that runs Buena Vista homes held a mass auction in Portland.

141 homes sell for a total of $65 million at real estate auction

OK, there is one particularly interesting quote in here that any mentally cognizant Bendite would readily understand (approx 2% of Bendites):

Westside homes in Beaverton and Hillsboro sold best, Pollock said. None of the 29 Bend homes sold, and homes that are now rented didn't sell well, either.

Pollock sold his ramshackle shit-shacks ALL OVER OREGON... except for Bend.

No. In Bend he didn't sell a single home. He actually accused those who bid on his Bend properties of trying to STEAL them. This is a clearly deluded idiot.

Or is he? See, he sold ALL the rest of the sugar shacks he was trying to sell, except Bend. It's like he is of Sound Mind and Body when he is NOT dealing with Bend, but once he is in "Bend Mode", he is out of his fucking mind. He goes totally schizo when it comes to Bend.

Any long timer to this blog knows that is the KOOL-AID EFFECT, foisted on man & beast alike via the Bend Media Propoganda Machine. ALL IS WELL. YOU ARE SAFE AS LONG AS YOU KEEP DRINKING THE KOOL-AID. WE NEED YOU TO BECOME PROSTITUTES SO WE KEEP BUYING YOU KOOL-AID AND MAKING YOU BEAR-BONG THE KOOL-AID.

Bend is run like any self-respecting hedonist Meth Den: There is The Fucking Man, The Grandmaster Pimp, The Fucking Boss Hogg, and in this town it is The Builder, or is pimped out grandpappy, The Developer.

And then there is the loose-stool fucking skanks that are drawn into the Grandmaster Pimps Meth-Den. That's us.

We are pulled in with promises of perfect powder 24/7, even in July, good wine & ass fucking your best friends trophy wife above Volo, hummers in your Hummer by your Taiwanese pool boy, and finally meth shot into your scrotum by the finest illegal aliens Madras has to offer.

And life is good for awhile. It's a hedonists dream come true.

But after a few months, Grandpappy asks you to swallow a bucket of cum from some mules that were just jerked of by Drew Bledsoe, and some other unseemly shit involving popsickles & your ass, and you're not thinking that you're living the Good Life like you once were.

The Costs To Entry seemed low. The rewards seemed high. And they were. Shortly.

But now comes the Exit Costs. And they're higher than you thought. In fact, they are barriers in your mind, because you can't, nay you WILL NOT, give up the other aspect of The Good Life, no matter what has to be sacrificed, no matter the cum buckets.

This is us. This is you, this is me. This is Roger Pollock. This is Jay Audia.

We are caught in the Bend Meth Den. Even when we want to really leave, we can't leave. This place has gripped us in some sort of catatonic fit that won't let us accept ANY reasonable offer.

What is happening to Roger Pollock & his cracker shacker butt smackers, is going to happen to this town, and all of us, on a larger cost & temporal scope. It took about 8 months for The Bend Meth Den, The Kool Aid, The Cult of Bend to take down Buena Vista Homes.

We are in for the same fate.

Look around. No one will lower their price. Many CANNOT lower their price, but there are a large number that can (Pollock), but they simply REFUSE.

Again, look at Pollock: A businessman, in this racket for the money, fairly geographically diverse. He holds an auction, and sells EVERYTHING HE'S GOT. Except for Bend, where he simply REFUSES TO ACCEPT REALITY. Why?

Why does this happen to people here? Why is this less a town, than a Meth Den where the Zombie Fucking Inhabitants seem to be robbed of all self-awareness & are completely oblivious to the catastrophe around them? Why?

The answer is of course, Bend Media. Bend Media, is systematically & purposefully creating this Cult in a futile hope to ever expand the First, Last & Greatest Industry Bend has Ever Had: GROWTH.

We aren't about actually DOING anything sustainable here. We are about getting the next mark. We grift marks. That is what this town does. We use up who is here in our Meth Den of Hedonism. Rob them of choice. Pump them full of Kool-Aid, and hand them buckets of chum.

But unfortunately for Boss Hogg, the jig is up. THEY have run out of METH to shoot into our scrotes, and we are starting to wake up. Roger Pollock woke up. And he will lose Buena Vista.

Well, who gives a shit? Big deal. Because what has happened to Pollock will happen to us all. If you think Bend is special and you are special and your house is special, you are about to get a rude wake up call, because you have been medicated by propoganda for too long, and you're about to see that Grandpappy Meth has used you up.

This is what you thought you was

This is what you really is.
"Holy Fuck, I White, Ass Ugly & I'm in a Bend Meth Den!"
Welcome to The Lollypop Guild, Motherfucker.

Bend Media CONTINUES to play Grandpappy Pimp to the populous, and the Bend City Council is ALL TOO HAPPY to suck their cocks as well.

But Pollocks Wake Up Call is coming to all of us. It will be exactly the same, simply larger in absolute financial & time scale. This place is going broke.

And NEVER FORGET what the true root cause is: It is NOT the housing boom or bust. That happened everywhere, and most of the country will survive. It is the media here, trying to hypnotize every single person into thinking their titties were 36DDDDD's, they looked like Angelina Jolie, they were swallowing Brad Pitts cum buckets, not old man mule jerk-off cum buckets.

They are trying to convince you YOU ARE SPECIAL for their NEEDS, NOT YOURS. Growth is ALL THEY HAVE. Just like CRACK DEALERS. Bend Media does not GIVE ONE THIN FUCK about you once you are here, only getting New Meat.

Why do you think they PUSHED through the SDC deferral plan? If they actually THOUGHT about anything for 2 fucking seconds, they would realize that giving the money to PROSPECTIVE BUYERS, while still LUDICRIOUS, makes 1.76 quadrillion times more sense than giving the builders a deferral.

But no. Once you are here, who gives a fuck. Keep entry costs low, keep rewards high... but DO NOT mention the motherfucking exit costs. And believe me, those costs will become highly important to you once you've swallowed your 14th cum bucket on the Volo Terraces.

Bend, like Buena Vista Homes, is going to go 100% BANKRUPT. And just lke any decent meth den, the Pimps get fucking rich & leave town, leaving behind used up meth-huffers who can't even tie their fucking shoes.

And it's all The Kool-Aid, it's all Bend Media. You think it's not 100% dead fucking real? Do you think it doesn't affect 100% of the local populous? Read this:

No bids on Forest Service land

Tuesday, August 19, 2008



The clock ticked past 3 p.m. on Friday, August 15, and there was no sound of a gavel coming down.

The approximately 62-acre parcel of land (50 acres net) the U.S. Forest Service put on the block in Sisters with a minimum bid of $14 million failed to attract any bids during an auction that closed last Friday.

"It's a big disappointment," said Sisters District Ranger Bill Anthony, "and it's going to create some challenges for us."

The no-bid means the Forest Service cannot move forward with plans for a new Sisters headquarters. Perhaps more distressing to the agency is the fact that proceeds won't be available to put into new facilities for the Bend-Fort Rock District, where lease costs are running the agency about $1 million per year.

"We were dependent on the receipts from that sale to fund construction of those projects," Anthony said.

The parcel, which lies along Pine Street in Sisters, was the focus of intense public interest as the possibility emerged that it could be sold to a private developer. Citizens were active in describing amenities they would like to see on the land, from more affordable housing to a public swimming pool.

The City of Sisters summarized community input as a kind of guideline for prospective developers as to how the city would likely want to see the property developed.

According to Anthony, there will be considerable discussion of options at the regional and probably at the national level. It is possible that the property could be put out for bid again in a better economic climate, but that's entirely speculative at this point, Anthony indicated.

For now, what is certain is that the Sisters Ranger District will not be moving and that large parcel of land will not be redeveloped any time soon.

"Fortunately, we have a home in Sisters," Anthony said. "It's a great location. It's not the kind of facility we need for the long term, but we can stay there for a while."

Look at that. The STUPID FUCKING FOREST SERVICE has inadvertently gotten PIMPED OUT. Yup, they think they got 36DDDDD's, when they just an asshole to 16 black fuckers.

The stupid fucking Forest Service, LIKE EVERY SINGLE MOTHERFUCKER EVER COME TO BEND, think they shit don't stink, and their real estate is worth more than The Ginza. Dumbfucks need to make way, cuz here come the cum bucket.

Now, here's a story YOU WILL NOT READ IN THE BULLETIN:

More people leaving Sisters area

By Bill Mintiens

Economic hard times are sending some local residents packing.

Sisters Rental, which also operates the local U-Haul distributorship, has tracked a trend in their U-Haul customers this summer:

"Although our U-Haul business is pretty close to what it was last year, we're seeing more people this year leaving the area than arriving," said Gilbert Porraz.

Porraz noted that it seems to be certain types of people moving on.

"I'm seeing people who've lived here for 5-7 years now moving on, mainly headed south, and most say it was just too hard to try to make a living in Sisters," added Porraz.

But he's also seen a number of "newcomers" leave the area, particularly following a hard winter and lack of employment.

"I know of several people, who arrived here all excited about a year ago, who had to move on for the same reasons. Mainly, no jobs," said Porraz.

Nancy Lynch at United Van Lines in Bend has been writing a number of quotations recently for Sisters families.

"We're definitely seeing more people leaving Sisters than moving in, several have said they have to go where the work is," said Lynch.

Lynch notes that this trend is not confined to Sisters.

"I can tell you that, in Bend, there are a lot of people wanting to leave - but can't until their homes sell," she said.

A July 25 "homes for sale" report showed 239 Sisters-area homes on the market.

"The cost of living in Central Oregon versus the pay in this area makes it very tough for people," said Lynch.

Jason Taroli with Prestige Moving & Storage in Bend, the local Allied Van Lines agent, is seeing the same trends across Central Oregon.

"There are definitely more people leaving than coming right now. We see this more in Bend, of course, due to Bend's population but it's happening everywhere," said Taroli.

Wow. Imagine that. Fucking houses in Sisters cost about 6 trillion times more than anyone makes there. And people are leaving. Is that true? They leaving?

Yeah. They are leaving Sisters in droves. Of course, once the fucking cracker wears off & Whitey wakes up in Bend, they will leave here in droves as well AND there will be an article. Of course people are already leaving as FAST AS THEY CAN.

Notice how YOU HAVEN'T READ ABOUT moving van survey's of arrivals vs departures in the Bulletin recently. Why? Right, the motherfucking departure department is PACKED. And arrivals is ZERO.

No, what we read about is the VAST BUILDING OF SUCCESSFUL PROJECTS:

Tall hotel may be in Sisters' future

By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin
Published: August 22. 2008 4:00AM PST
-

An upscale hotel rising as much as 50 feet could be on the horizon for Sisters’ Western-themed downtown.

Under plans submitted to the city in April, the 98-room, three-story Sisters Village Hotel at the west end of Sisters would give the city its tallest building and would be evaluated based on Deschutes County planning guidelines, according to Eric Porter, the city’s community development director.

That’s due to an agreement made in 1998 between Pine Meadow Village LLC, the city of Sisters and the county that gave owners of the property 10 years to submit an application and fall under the county’s less-restrictive code for the Sisters area.

Representatives of the project’s developer, Celia Hung, of Bend, turned in the hotel project application April 4, a day before the 10-year agreement expired, Porter said.

Right, right, right. The old 50 ft tall Sisters Hotel is what YOU ARE READING ABOUT.

Real estate is STILL GOOD. ALL IS WELL. Here is that bucket of cum.

OK, here comes a Mark My Words Moment:

This Celia Hung-To-The Floor has about a snowballs chance in HELL of ever building this monstrosity. NEVER HAPPEN.

You want to see the Full Scale of the horror that is our local media, you can easily see it here:

The phased approach would make sense in a tourism economy that is expected to experience a significant slowdown in the next 12 to 18 months, said Alana Audette, the president and CEO of Central Oregon Visitors Association, which markets tourism for the region.

“Early indicators are that people are going to be very cautious and price sensitive,” Audette said. “It is a difficult time to launch new products.”

Even the usually ebulient Audette thinks there are 200 different ways this thing SHOULD GET BUILT (remember, GROWTH is our ONLY INDUSTRY). Alana Audette is about the most ill-qualified dumbfuck the World has EVER KNOWN, but the Bulletin SOUGHT HER LYING ASS OUT for this "story".

Standard Procedure in a Meth Den. Grandmaster Pimp tell me I pretty. I best swaller that cum. Fucking unbelievable.

Mark these Words: You wanna know how it'll go down here in a microcosm? You look to Pollock & Buena Vista Homes. Everything is Bend WAY TOO GOOD to be sold at market.

I'D RATHER LOSE EVERYTHING THAN SELL FOR LESS THAN I THINK I SHOULD GET, AFTER ALL THIS IS BEND.

So let it be written, so let it be done. Stupid Motherfuckers.

OK, on to what I think is the DOMINANT THEME for this country & it's economy: STAGFLATION.

U.S. Economy: Housing, Prices Raise Stagflation Risk


By Shobhana Chandra and Timothy R. Homan
More Photos/Details

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. builders broke ground on the fewest new homes in 17 years and producer prices climbed the most since 1981, providing no sign of an economic recovery or easing inflation.

Housing starts fell 11 percent in July to an annual rate of 965,000, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The Labor Department reported the producer price index jumped 9.8 percent from a year before.

``There's no doubt we're in a period of stagflation now,'' said Peter Kretzmer, a senior economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York who formerly worked at both the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Fed Board in Washington.

Stock indexes posted their biggest two-day loss since June. The Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index dropped 0.9 percent to close at 1,266.69, with the S&P Supercomposite Homebuilding Index down 3.5 percent. Treasuries were little changed, with 10-year notes yielding 3.83 percent.

``We are still in a fairly risky situation'' on the inflation front, Fed Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. He said that higher interest rates may be needed to curtail prices even before growth and financial markets return to normal.

Compared with July 2007, work began on 30 percent fewer homes. Building permits, a sign of future construction, also fell in July, the Commerce Department reported. They were down 18 percent to a 937,000 annual pace.

Starts were projected to fall to a 960,000 annual pace, according to the median forecast of 77 economists polled by Bloomberg News. The median estimate for permits was 970,000.

`Pull Back'

``A recovery will not happen this year,'' said Russell Price, a senior economist at H&R Block Financial Advisors Inc. in Detroit. ``Not only are mortgage rates creeping up, but financing is becoming more difficult for a lot of people. Builders will continue to pull back.''

The 1.2 percent increase in producer prices from the previous month followed a 1.8 percent increase in June, the Labor Department said. So-called core prices that exclude fuel and food rose 0.7 percent after a 0.2 percent gain in June.

Prices paid to factories, farmers and other producers were forecast to rise 0.6 percent, according to the median of 77 forecasts. The core index was projected to advance 0.2 percent.

Fed's Fisher

``The recent burst of cost-push inflation is giving the beast digestion problems that might manifest themselves in the form of a lingering inflationary fever,'' Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said in a speech in Aspen, Colorado, today.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told U.S. lawmakers last month that officials ``continue to expect inflation to moderate in 2009 and 2010, as slower global growth leads to a cooling of commodity markets,'' while viewing the outlook ``as unusually uncertain.''

The jump in the producer price index reflected a surge in commodity costs that has since waned. At the same time, the acceleration in costs excluding food and fuel raises concern about a pass-through to consumer prices.

Producer prices are one of three monthly inflation gauges reported by the Labor Department. Import prices rose 1.7 percent in July and consumer prices increased 0.8 percent for the same period, the Labor Department said last week. Both figures were higher than estimated.

Construction of single-family homes fell 2.9 percent to a 641,000 rate, the fewest since January 1991, today's report showed. Work on multifamily homes, such as townhouses and apartment buildings, dropped 24 percent from the prior month to an annual rate of 324,000.

`Bad' News

``The news ahead for housing remains bad,'' Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview. ``There's a corrective process we have to get through here.''

The decrease in starts was led by a 30 percent decline in the Northeast. Construction fell 8.2 percent in both the South and West. Starts in the West slumped to a 26-year low. The Midwest showed a 10 percent gain.

The magnitude of the July drop in the Northeast reflected, in part, a payback from an unexpected surge the prior month. Starts and permits jumped in June as builders hurried to break ground ahead of new regulations in New York City's building code that took effect July 1.

Underneath the gyrations, demand is weakening. Sales of existing homes fell to a 10-year low in the second quarter, according to the National Association of Realtors. A third of all sales were foreclosures or ``short sales,'' in which lenders take a loss on a property.

Financing is also becoming tougher, a quarterly survey of banks by the Federal Reserve showed. Compared with the April survey, more of the loan officers polled reported they tightened standards on prime mortgage loans and on non-traditional loans.

Toll on Retailers

The slumping U.S. economy is taking its toll on retailers from luxury chain Saks Inc. to discounter Target Corp., reports showed today. Saks reported its largest quarterly loss in two years, while profit dropped for a fourth straight quarter at Target. Home Depot Inc., the biggest home improvement chain, posted its seventh sales decline in eight quarters.

Falling retailer earnings may signal that the U.S. economy will deteriorate further as consumers rein in spending to cope with rising unemployment and inflation. Home Depot Chief Executive Officer Frank Blake told analysts today he was ``cautious'' about consumer spending through mid-2009.

The five largest U.S. homebuilders reported a combined $1.08 billion in losses in their most recent quarters.

Builders are pessimistic as losses mount. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo's sentiment index yesterday showed optimism held at a record low in August for a second month.

I've said this for many moons that the final upshot of printing TRILLIONS to "bail out" the housing mess would be STAGFLATION. Growth is coming to a halt anyway, but our government in its infinite wisdom, has decided to liquify (think throw-in-blender) the US economy.

And another theme that I think will become even more important is The Marginalizing of The United States on the World platform. We will still be important. But we'll be like Great Britain. Flash in the Pan fuck-ups who royally screwed themselves.

What's the next shoe to drop? Credit Cards:

The next credit crunch
Our easy access to plastic is about to dry up - and with it our ability to fake living the good life.
By Geoff Colvin, senior editor at large
Last Updated: August 20, 2008: 1:15 PM EDT

(Fortune Magazine) -- We made it through the bursting of the Internet bubble and now the bursting of the real estate bubble. Next we may be approaching the end of the most worrisome bubble of all: the standard-of-living bubble.

That conclusion comes from the latest data on credit card debt. It's growing fast, but the problem is bigger than that - and to understand what it means, we have to take a few steps back.

For the past several years, the average inflation-adjusted total pay of American workers hasn't been increasing. That means we haven't been building a foundation for increases in our living standard. You might be tempted to say that by definition our living standard couldn't have increased, but that's not quite right. Even with stagnant real incomes, we can always live a little better every year through borrowing and pretending that our living standard is still rising, just as it was for decades.

So the Great Bull Market made us feel rich, and we felt justified in saving less and borrowing - and spending - more.

After stocks collapsed, home prices took off, making us feel rich all over again. So we continued saving less and spending more, creating the illusion that our living standard was still rising. In 2005 our personal savings rate went negative, but even that didn't slow us down, because our homes were still appreciating - and rising home values meant that household net worths weren't declining. (Don't be fooled by that saving-rate spike in this year's second quarter; it was probably a one-time event resulting from the federal stimulus payments.)

Of course, we don't hear those assurances anymore. Stocks are back where they were eight years ago, and home prices are where they were five years ago. But personal debt is much higher than ever before, and average pay is still going nowhere in real terms. So now how do we live as if our living standard is still rising?
End of easy money

That's where the credit card reports come in. Last year, just as the subprime crisis happened, credit card debt took off. The home-equity ATM had been shut down, so people turned to the last source of easy money they had left, the most expensive debt on the menu, credit card borrowing.

Since credit card debt has been growing much faster than the economy - more than 8% in last year's third and fourth quarters and over 7% in May (the most recent month reported)- people are apparently using it as a substitute for income. Thus, for the past year or so we have still maintained the standard-of-living illusion.

But a big crunch is coming - and here's why. Credit card debt, like mortgage debt, gets bundled, securitized, and sold off by banks. Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), one of America's largest credit card lenders, just reported that it lost $176 million in the second quarter through securitizing such debt. That happens when the buyers of those securities observe rising delinquency rates and rising interest rates, and decide the debt is worth less than Citi thought. More generally, the amount of credit card debt that is securitized nationwide has plunged by more than half in the past five months because it's getting riskier. That means credit card issuers will be charging customers higher interest rates, and since the banks can't offload as much of the debt as before, they'll have less money to lend to cardholders.

The squeeze has already started, which is why Congress is in the process of passing the Credit Cardholders' Bill of Rights, which would prevent issuers from changing rates and terms without warning, among many other provisions. But bottom line, the credit card money window is going to start closing - and soon.

So now what? It's hard to see where consumers can turn next. Home prices seem highly unlikely to start rising again soon. Stocks? You never know, but the Great Bull Market looks like a once-in-a-lifetime event. Homes and stocks are households' biggest asset classes by far. There isn't much else to borrow against.

It may be that the standard-of-living bubble finally has to deflate. Sustainable increases in living standards have to be earned, not borrowed, and that means performing ever higher value work that can't be outsourced. We haven't been meeting that challenge very well; doing so will probably require much more and better education for millions of Americans, which takes time and money.

The result may feel like deprivation, but I don't see it that way. Who knows - we might even find that living within our means and saving a little money actually isn't so bad.

I love that saying: FAKE LIVING THE GOOD LIFE.

Who does that remind you of? I know, "America". But WHICH AMERICANS?

Hmmm hm. Cali-Bangers. Cali-Bangers are living in the Biggest Meth Den in The World; California. A place where absolutely no one has a fucking clue what's really going on. The Cali-Banger will suffer a withdrawal so severe, that I actually believe many of them will WAKE UP WHITE PEEPUL and get the fuck outta there.

Again, you can be forgiven if you have come here from Cali: Lie prostrate on the ground groveling before every native Bendite and beg forgiveness for a hundred years of theft, rape, and murder. Do that and your men shall live. Do it not, and every one of you will die today.

Gat damn Braveheart! Well, anyway, you get the picture.

This country has been living some sort of credit-fueled dream, and it's about to become a nightmare. We ain't got the 36DDDDD's. We crack-ass ugly. We have been living a fantasy, and it will fall apart because all such things do. They must. We will either wake up or DIE.

Ask Jay Audia. You see Pollock KILLING himself over this shit? Fuck no, he's in MEXICO getting his 2" cock sucked by little boys. In Bend, once people wake up from the Cracker Nighmare, They fucking kill themselves.

Barriers To Exit are high in this Meth Den. YOUR MONEY OR YOUR LIFE. Those are the costs to get out.

Why are NO HOMES SELLING? Cuz they can't bring themselves to believe they are what they are. They believed the Grandmaster Pimp. They think they got the 36DDDD's. Everyone in Bend is an Olympic Athelete, right?

But ain't none of us Angelina Jolie. We just stupid Whitey. And until people wake up & CUT THEIR FUCKING PRICES IN HALF OR MORE, nothing will sell here. Just like no one really ever leaves whoring. They just take "breaks". Costs to exit are in your head, and that shit is hard to undo.

This is a town of HEDONISTS, because that is EXACTLY WHAT BEND MEDIA wants here. HEDONISTS will take the KOOL-AID, and not care what happens on The Back End. Even if it's losing everything. Hell, even if it's dying.

GROWTH: Funny thing how some things have Unintended Consequences. We started a War with Iraq, whose main consequence was enriching our enemies at a rate untold in history.

And the Growth Industry? Who knew it's primary byproduct is DEATH?

That's Bend. We reeled in every crack-addled hedonist for 1,000 miles and know we will either use them up so completely that they won't recognize themselves when they leave, or we will bury them.

Thanks Bend Media & Boss Hogg.


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IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Wow, coincidentally The Bulletin today is running a piece about Bends Newest Meth Den (subscription req'd):

The Loft of Bend: Like a country club sans golf

August 24, 2008 4:00 am
The Loft of Bend: Like a country club sans golf, Adam Bledsoe opened The Loft of Bend, a private social and wine club located on the second floor of the 919 Bond Building, on Aug. 1. Drew Bledsoe, his brother and a former NFL quarterback, is also a partner. “There were a lot of people in Bend that were waiting for this exact concept,” Bledsoe said.

Central Oregon is home to a new club, where members can drink vintage wine, socialize, host parties


You should join if only to watch Bledsoe & his brother jerk off 20 mules to The Macarena.

But it is true, there were a lot of people waiting for this exact concept: Former NFL types jerking off mules. People love that shit, it never gets old.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Plus we got our obligatory Perpetual Money-Motion Machine piece today:

Flying on $1.35
Greg Cole envisions a battery-powered plane that doesn't break the bank. But is it feasible? People are listening.

By Andrew Moore / The Bulletin
Published: August 24. 2008 4:00AM PST

Greg Cole, owner of Windward Performance of Bend, shows off one of his company’s sailplanes at the Bend Municipal Airport. The kind of electric motor he envisions would propel a new electric plane he is developing. - Dean Guernsey / The Bulletin
Dean Guernsey / The Bulletin

Greg Cole, owner of Windward Performance of Bend, shows off one of his company’s sailplanes at the Bend Municipal Airport. The kind of electric motor he envisions would propel a new electric plane he is developing.
The Goshawk — the electric airplane Cole is designing — would be powered by lithium ion batteries. The two-seater wouldn’t be faster than 130 mph at cruising speed, nor would it go farther than 100 to 150 miles at a time, but it would cost just about $1.35 for a one-hour flight, based on today’s average cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour. - Rendering courtesy Greg Cole
Rendering courtesy Greg Cole

The Goshawk — the electric airplane Cole is designing — would be powered by lithium ion batteries. The two-seater wouldn’t be faster than 130 mph at cruising speed, nor would it go farther than 100 to 150 miles at a time, but it would cost just about $1.35 for a one-hour flight, based on today’s average cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour.

Airplanes powered by electric motors are in the early stages of development, but Bend entrepreneur Greg Cole is charging ahead with his own design.

Cole, who previously worked as the chief engineer of research and development at Lancair in Redmond and then left to form a company to build lightweight, carbon fiber sailplanes, has designed a two-seat, carbon fiber airplane that would run on a 40-horsepower electric engine powered by stacks of lithium ion batteries.

The plane wouldn’t be fast — its estimated cruise speed would be 130 mph — and wouldn’t have much range, probably between 100 and 150 miles, but it would cost a fraction to fly compared with its gas-guzzling cousins.

In its current design, Cole’s plane — the Goshawk — would be able to fly for one hour on a full battery charge, he said. Using an engine that consumes 15 kilowatts, and assuming electricity costs 9 cents per kilowatt-hour (the U.S. average, per the federal Energy Information Administration), Cole said the plane’s “fuel” costs for a one-hour flight would be roughly $1.35.

Anonymous said...

What is it a big circle jerk............wannabees and starstruck losers. People in Bend need to get lives.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

What's STUPID about this piece is that POWERED GLIDERS have been around for about 6,000 years.

Pharaohs launched these things off the tops of the Pyramids, powered by the anguish of Hebrew Slaves. On a hot day (175 degrees) they could get them across the Red Sea.

See, powered gliders are about the most ridiculously OLD TECHNOLOGY in existence, but The Bulletin is presenting it as A NEW & RADICALLY CHEAPER WAY TO FLY.

OK, you can't run an airline with 2 seaters that won't even make it to Burns.

"Lady's and germs, thank you for choosing Meth Den Air. We'll be flying non-stop to Orlando, with stops in Burns, Burns Junction, The Alvord Desert, Jarbidge, Winnemuca, Elko, Wells, The Salt Flats, The Salt Flats again, Wendover, Grantsville, Sandy UT, The Mormon Tabernacle..."

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

"We're definitely seeing more people leaving Sisters than moving in, several have said they have to go where the work is," said Lynch.

Lynch notes that this trend is not confined to Sisters.

"I can tell you that, in Bend, there are a lot of people wanting to leave - but can't until their homes sell," she said.


Fucking classic. Never make print here.

hbm said...

Costa finally came down from Olympus today and acknowledged the speculation about a "wave" of builder-developer suicides:

Spreading tales with no regard for proof

By John Costa / The Bulletin
Published: August 24. 2008 4:00AM PST

People who revel in conspiracies are a challenging bunch.

Armed with incomplete pieces of information, they like to paint complete pictures, filling in the blanks with rumor, hearsay or invention, if necessary.

Whether it is at the water cooler or in the locker room or at the weekly bridge club meeting or in the blogosphere, some people delight in spreading tales with little proof.

They apparently don’t consider that, in the process, they harm or destroy the reputations and credibility of individuals or institutions.

One such conspiratorial narrative is making its way around Central Oregon.

It’s that there is a wave of suicides among people in the building and real estate industries, and that The Bulletin is refusing for self-serving reasons to cover them.

Before this nonsense gets totally out of hand, I thought it would be good to do a little fact checking on the so-called wave, and then explain The Bulletin’s policy on reporting suicides.

People who are buying into the wave theory point to four deaths they say were suicides due to the housing downturn in Central Oregon.

So, one of our reporters called the Deschutes County medical examiner, Dr. Chris Hatlestad, to check on these cases.

In fact, of the four, only one is a confirmed suicide. At least for now, the other three have not been confirmed as suicides.

And of the four, only two had a lien or notice of default filed against them.

Is this a wave?

It doesn’t seem to be, based on what is actually known right now.

And Hatlestad told our reporter he doesn’t see any increase in suicides this year over last year.

So, what is the role and responsibility of The Bulletin?

There are certainly a few people who would like the newspaper to join the speculative bandwagon and declare these deaths to be the product of a tanking economy.

And to many of them, our reluctance to do so is proof positive that we are covering up the downside of an industry whose advertising revenue is important to the newspaper.

That we are trying to cover up the woes of the real estate and housing industry here would certainly come as a shock to that industry, which regularly criticizes us for our negative stories, regardless of their consistent accuracy.

Anyone inclined to buy into this should come to The Bulletin and read a year’s worth of front pages.

This is not to say that economic distress doesn’t affect some people more than others, or that it couldn’t be a factor in someone tragically taking his or her own life.

And perhaps the future will provide facts that support the wave theory.

When and if it ever does, The Bulletin will write about it as an important trend affecting a large community.

But the credibility of the newspaper is based on facts that can be demonstrated, and right now what can be demonstrated doesn’t support a rash of business suicides.

I haven’t named the individuals whose deaths are at the heart of this speculation. I haven’t done so because The Bulletin has a policy of not naming people who commit suicide unless they are public figures or unless they kill themselves in a public setting.

It can turn out that we report the name of a dead individual, and it is later determined to be a suicide.

That can happen, but generally speaking, we believe that reporting a suicide adds a level of pain to an existing tragedy that cannot be justified on the basis of newsworthiness.

Other newspapers, other editors, other media may well choose another path.

But this is the one we will stay on as consistently as we can — whatever the occupation of the individual.

John Costa is editor-in-chief of The Bulletin.


What Costa says about the paper's policy on reporting suicides is true, and was the same in Chandler's day: The paper doesn't report a suicide unless the victim was somebody prominent or committed suicide publicly, like the unfortunate woman who threw herself off the balcony at St. Chas. This actually is pretty SOP for newspapers.

However, the denial that the Bull tried to cover up or at least downplay the real estate collapse is bullshit. They're not doing it so much now, but it took them a long time to acknowledge reality. They did it only when it became too big to ignore or deny.

Marge said...

Surviving Bend: Bullets, Beans and Bandaids. That's it. If you don't have these items you are on a death march. As said before "The Cali-vary is not coming. They are all leaving in U-hauls or pine boxes with empty pockets. If they leave fast enough there may be a chance that the OLD Bend (full of survivalists) will bring back a era when you knew 50% of the people that you saw everyday. You knew all of your neighbors, your kids could play in the street without supervision. A banker was a guy you knew and would make you short term uncollaterilized loans to put new tires on your rig. Oddly enough, you actually paid him back. You didn't call him and say, Hey these tires aren't worth what I paid for them, so I'm not paying you back.
We only need 50,000 people to leave! Voila, and I am back in my wranglers and plaid flannel shirts.

Marge said...

A good friend of mine has a client who's girlfiend commited suicide several weeks ago. She was called to the scene to support her client. The police officer that she was talking to said they are seeing 3-4 of these scenarios a week. Who knows what the reasons. Just alot of desperate people out there.Maybe the Bull could call the cops instead of the coroner.

Anonymous said...

I see a lot 'anger' in Costa's report on Bend suicide.

He doesn't even mention the real water-cooler conspiracy that is bank-hits! For insurance reasons its in nobody's interest to report these deaths as suicides.

Bend is a small town, to lose four prominent builders in a short period is significant. Oh, the criteria is a was NOD for death? and only two had 'liens'? I find this fishy, as its impossible to be a builder and not have pending liens as almost every supplier slaps one on to get paid.

Thus there are two parts to the BULL here, what he is saying.

1.) That two of the four had NOD's, well given that 2 of 4 of everyone in Bend has NOD's this means nothing.

2.) That there were few that had liens, well this just tells me that NOTHING is being done, when you don't have a lien, it means your NOT building.

#2 is THE GIST of the problem, its over, these 'builders' are no longer building, and suppliers are no longer slapping down liens.

Costa has probably doesn't know shit about home building, only covering his ass, and spreading BULL.

No doubt good friends of his have died, of mysterious deaths. So it took what two months for COSTA to report the mysterious deaths? The WSJ, US News & World Distort, ... OPB, Oregonian, ...

In summary, the reason for developer/builder melancholy is not NOD's, that's walkaway, like POLLOCK, just walk away, and weather the storm in Mexico.

The PROBLEM for those who spread the BULL, and BOUGHT the BULL (AUDIA) is that its OVER. The problem is that NOTHING is now being done.

This is the reason for 100% PURE SDC deferral championed by COSTA. It's to be kick-start to get humpty back on the wall.

Humpty-Dumpty fell off the wall COSTA, and NOT in your lifetime will you put him back together again. This cognitive dysfunction of reality, will lead to more melancholy, which will lead to more premature developer/builder deaths.

Anonymous said...

The police officer that she was talking to said they are seeing 3-4 of these scenarios a week. Who knows what the reasons. Just a lot of desperate people out there.

*

1.) Denying the problem will never stop the problem ( premature death ), the BULL is the cause, COSTA is doing nobody a favor by ignoring the situation.

2.) I begged BP a month ago to start running a coroner metric, perhaps what we need is a death-metric, like Clives inventory-watch. We can call death-watch, and report non-natural deaths under 60.

3.) I hope you all saw the panic, and sense of gloom & doom in Costa's report on suicide.

It's not fun to be a REHO, or a BEND PR&MARKETING cheerleader anymore.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

In fact, of the four, only one is a confirmed suicide. At least for now, the other three have not been confirmed as suicides.

Right, the others are Umpqua Bank Hit Squads.

And of the four, only two had a lien or notice of default filed against them.

Damn! Only HALF are confirmed RE-related deaths. The other half SAW IT COMING.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And to many of them, our reluctance to do so is proof positive that we are covering up the downside of an industry whose advertising revenue is important to the newspaper.

Hallelujah, brother!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Is this a wave?

It doesn’t seem to be, based on what is actually known right now.


Lying ass motherfucker.

See, the Bulletin ROUTINELY portrays the Cent OR RE industry as just as healthy as hell, via a LONG & NEVER ENDING SERIES of PRO RE ARTICLES.

"What's going up?"

Has there EVER been a WHAT'S COMING DOWN piece, EVER?

Now admittedly, they will cover Bad News (BK of Columbia Air), cuz it's just too big to cover up. But in a DECLINING & STAGNANT economy, we are STILL SUBJECTED to unending Good News.

Uh huh. But COSTA, you dumbfuck, you aren't EVEN ACKNOWLEDGING the FACT that HALF of these RE-suicides are IMPLOSION RELATED.

"Could be." "Maybe." "No Proof."

Right, you lying cunt, THERE IS ABUNDANT PROOF that our local economy is IMPLODING, and your first reaction when a reporter tried to get the word out was to FIRE THEIR ASS.

YOU LYING FUCK. YOU'RE A BOUGHT & PAID FOR RE WHORE & YOU KNOW IT. LOOK AROUND: WHO GAVE YOU THE GROUND YOUR FACILITY SITS ON? WHO?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

That can happen, but generally speaking, we believe that reporting a suicide adds a level of pain to an existing tragedy that cannot be justified on the basis of newsworthiness.

Other newspapers, other editors, other media may well choose another path.


Yeah, you're just a bastion of Decency, you lying fucking cunt sellout. You'd fuck your grama in the ass if it pushed up ad rates.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And of the four, only two had a lien or notice of default filed against them.

Fucking Costa. How dumb does this fucker think people are?

Half these people had NOD's filed against them, and he's saying "What, where, who, when? What's going on?"

Right. This stupid ass blog EASILY sees the forest for the trees, but COSTA needs us to paint him a picture. Uh huh.

Don't play DUMB, Costa. At least not THAT dumb. You know these fuckers offed themselves cuz of RE imploding, and RE FUNDS The BULL, and you will collectively suck each others 1" rock-hard cocks until the KOOL-AID runs out.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I hope you all saw the panic, and sense of gloom & doom in Costa's report on suicide.


Yeah, me doth thinks he protests too much.

This editorial is about as close to 100% ROCK SOLID PROOF that Costa KNOWS these fuckers are killing themselves due to the Mega RE Bust in Cent OR.

Fucker probably knows full well that Banks are hitting the rest before NOD's are filed.

Anonymous said...

And to many of them, our reluctance to do so is proof positive that we are covering up the downside of an industry whose advertising revenue is important to the newspaper. - costa

Hallelujah, brother!

*

Advertising, in the BULL?? No COSTA, we have never suggested that the BEND-BULL follows the standard model.

THE BEND-BULL model is free $10M land from the boss-hogg, the BEND-BULL model is all ships rise on the tide. The BEND-BULL model is that everyone gets rich by snagging more calis in on tourism, and selling them condo time-shares.

Suggesting that you don't report 'suicides' because it offends your advertisers is a crock of shit. That would be rational, like HBM say's "The BULL Enablers" are about BEING STUPID!

*

On behalf of Dunc aka Ned, I can say today will go down as blogger-fodder at its finest.

I mean Costa could have just reported who, what, when, where, & why. He didn't have to come out and do the blogger thing! NOTE that what Costa is editorially doing is talking Jive just like us, this is a major turning-point, albeit STUPID.

My HUMBLE opinion is that Chandler Family and/or Boss-Hogg is going to be taking Costa Down, and replacing him with a young blond female. It's clear that Costa doesn't have what it takes to spread BULL anymore in Bend, Oregon.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

For insurance reasons its in nobody's interest to report these deaths as suicides.

Yeah, note the CONDITIONS under which COSTA will report a death as a suicide:

I haven’t done so because The Bulletin has a policy of not naming people who commit suicide unless they are public figures or unless they kill themselves in a public setting.

Yeah, motherfuckers gotta self-immolate in The Bulletins front lobby before they'll report it as a suicide.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

some people delight in spreading tales with little proof

Uh huh. I DELIGHT in that shit cuz I'm a GRAVE DANCING VULTURE THAT LOVES TO SPREAD MISERY, DEATH, AND DESPAIR.

Subtle. Disparage your enemy. Good call, you fucking pathetic Ad Hominem cunt.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Good call, you fucking pathetic Ad Hominem cunt.

Yes, I'm aware of the irony.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Other newspapers, other editors, other media may well choose another path.

Man hbm... you done pissed this fucker off coming on here...

hbm said...

I hope you all saw the panic, and sense of gloom & doom in Costa's report on suicide.

I don't know about panic, but the fact that he condescended to write anything about these speculations is significant. It says to me that (a) they are getting considerable traction in the community and (b) Costa really sees his credibility is under attack, enough so that he feels obliged to defend it.

Anonymous said...

I posted this (below) over on NedFlanders site, I'm not sure what his game, most likely its to BAIT-ME, but I did feel that giving me 100% of the credit for the whole fucking COSTA mea-culpa, is thin, thin at best. Ned seems to think that I am homer, marge, et-al, that all evil thoughts in Bend against the Empire come from bilbo. I think that Ned is doing the BP thing, which is assuming that ALL BEND BLOGS come from BUSTER. I'm no fucking leader. Homer is our leader. So you tell me HOMER what's Ned up to?

I mean I can easily say that ALL copy ever written on these blogs came from Ned, that there is only one person, that Marge, Homer, Buster, ... is All Ned, as Ned is a prolific writer.

My humble opinion is that there are over a dozen of us reporting on Bend, on that which the SORE & BULL ignores, for their own survival.

**** In response to Ned Flanders assertion, that bilbo caused the Bend suicide mea-culpa by Costa ***

[ That said, maybe Ned, knows something we don't??? ]

Dunc,

You give me too much credit. Homer's post a few weeks ago was "BANK MOB HITS", ... take out Bend's Builders, that was homers rhetoric.

We really are different people.

For the record, I made one assertion, and it came from prior 1980's here in Bend, and that was that people who had lost Millions of dollars of Real Estate 'pool' money had contracts put out on them.

I simply brought my perspective history, and a cyclic recurrence of what is Bend.

The entry of the ENTIRE suicide debate was 100% 'marge' from day-one, should you bother to go back and follow the blogs.

Upon Marge's detailed reporting, because her being a realtor in the Bend grape-vine, she was able to name names, and specific locations and circumstance of each individual death. ( Audia comes to mind. )

With regards to McDonald of the SHIRE, within days of his falling @ Benham, the Source was reporting that they were skeptical of the 'accidental death' theory.

The blogger didn't pick up the suicide deal until Marge brought up Audia, then we went back and connected the dots to McDonald.

Then there were two that followed, as since the last two weeks we're now following all Bend suicides very closely.

I'm sure your post was only to bait me, but I hate for you to give one old man all the credit for reporting an 'epidemic of suicides in bend'.

In summary, McDonald died and the Source started the suicide angle, which made MORE sense. Then marge reported the Audia self-inflicted gun-shot. Then HOMER ran the 'bank hit' story, but bilbo never suggested that Bends regional banks had anything to do with the mysterious deaths of our four prominent, public, important builders.

What bilbo said that in the last cycle, Millions of dollars of private money was lost in Real Estate pools by 'idiot builder/developers', and I know some that ran off to Mexico, because contracts had been put on them. All along my take on the Bend-Bubble collapse this time around 2002->2012, is all transpiring exactly like last time, 1980->1990. Same people, same bullshit, same PR&MARKETING, same all the exact same, same ponzi scheme to separate calis from their CASH.

bilbo in bend

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I don't know why, but this COSTA REBUTTAL right off makes me think that the BULL is in financial trouble.

This fucker is UNNERVED. His ass is scared. I wonder if the comatose Chandler Power Rangers spawn are shopping this sinking ship?

Costa is making a strategic blunder here, and it makes me think his mind ain't right...

Anonymous said...

Costa really sees his credibility is under attack, enough so that he feels obliged to defend it.

*

They say when in a hole, quit digging. Honestly, Costa would have been far wiser to get on of his PR-HO enablers at the BULL to write this for him, I really think he's dug himself deeper, for all the reasons we have speculated above.

Today will go down as the finest day of blogger-fodder. I think Homer, needs to add that category to his tombstones.

Anonymous said...

Costa is making a strategic blunder here, and it makes me think his mind ain't right...


*

I completely agree home-boy. I think that when it comes to BIZ, that HBM thinks like BP,

I'm a hard-core BIZ ass-hole, I know BIZ for what it is, there are a few us that fall into that category like quim, and lava.

We got our liberals like hbm, and bp.

Dunc, is in a biz class by himself 1/2 into alt-reality, the other 1/2 on the edge of financial ruin his whole biz life, but he's a survivor, but because he's public he can't tell us what he really thinks.

I think a few weeks ago I was speculating that Chandler move the HQ to Wally-World, WA, to get away from Bend, at least wally has jobs, being near Hanford.

Bend's going to be UGLY for the next ten years, and the BULL is going to be responsible, Note this mea-culpa on 'suicide' is MORE about how he covered the BEND RE implosion, that about anything else. He seems to be covering his ass on all opposition.

The Barbarians are at the gate, my guess with the best in 20 BULL, coming out of CORA/COBA&paid by city-hall, is that these for fucking ma&pa realtors have been spending ad dollars to NO avail to fucking long, on the mantra that its coming back.

It ain't coming back, and it ain't going to be fun anymore.

It ain't going to be fun to work in Bend, or any of these people.

The best thing the Chandler family can do, is ship all these Bend folks to new jobs and bring in fresh faces, that will promise to report the news.

The CURRENT FACES at the BULL have NO credibility, and NO mea-culpa from COSTA is going to change that fact.

It's NOT coming back for years.

Had the BULL reported the truth, this city could have avoided bankruptcy, even HBM asserts is now a 100% fact.

Where was COSTA on our BK of BEND?? That's is the fucking story thats being ignored in his mea-culpa.

All over Bend, biz owners are going to get FUCKED. COSTA allowed Bend as a city to be destroyed to protect the BOSS-HOGG, once the BH goes BK, then the BK of Bend will be for nuttin, and that PAIN & AGONY will cause COSTA to UHAUL.

MY FUCKING BET, is that COSTA UHAULS way before BH & BEND does the BK.

Like you say, Bend is Growth. The BULL feeds itself on AD dollars, small ma&pa biz pay those ad dollars, its called 'image advertising' once you lose your CRED, there is NO POINT in placing ad's in a BITCH PAPER. This is where this is going, and YOU KNOW EVEN STUPID COSTA see's the writing on the wall.

Anybody that stays on this Bend-TITANIC until it sinks is going to hell.

Major BULL layoffs by XMAS.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Also sounds like he's had more than one conversation where he's talking a Builder Buddy back from the edge.

He's trying to put the kaibash on suicide as the honorable way out. After all, Dead Builders Buy No Ads.

This fucker KNOWS that there is about to be a rash of suicides.

Anonymous said...

I wonder if the comatose Chandler Power Rangers spawn are shopping this sinking ship?

*

Everyone loves a winner, and hates a loser.

SELL the fucking BULL today for something, and buy it back in 2012 for a lot less.

Anonymous said...

This fucker KNOWS that there is about to be a rash of suicides.

*

I think marge's earlier post today, indicates that they're already here, that we only know about the tip of the Bend-Titanic iceberg.

Anonymous said...

. The police officer that she was talking to said they are seeing 3-4 of these scenarios a week. Who knows what the reasons. Just alot of desperate people out there.Maybe the Bull could call the cops instead of the coroner. - marge

*

Dunc seems to think that buster is marge, but I said this a few weeks ago when Marge reported Audia, and BENDBB hit HOMER hard for reporting that, my assertion was it ALL came from Marge, and to date NO marge posting has ever been proved wrong.

If MARGE says the cops are seeing four suicides a week right now, then most likely thats a fact. Hell I wouldn't be surprised if Marge is a Realtor & part-time cop, note how she always talks about guns, and taking shit from NOBODY? Marge is a female version of dirty harry, me wouldn't be surprised if MARGE has a direct tie to the cop-shop, note how her detail on the audia death was like reading a fucking police report?

I think we get some real information from marge. There are a lot of people in Bend city government that really do want light on the BOSS-HOGG rats running city-hall.

After all when Bend goes BK, its these people who lose their pension, and pay.

It didn't have to happen COSTA!

tim said...

>>In fact, of the four, only one is a confirmed suicide.

That's the first time the Bulletin has admitted an RE suicide, no?

tim said...

>>They say when in a hole, quit digging. Honestly, Costa would have been far wiser to get on of his PR-HO enablers at the BULL to write this for him, I really think he's dug himself deeper, for all the reasons we have speculated above.

He would have been far wiser to shut-the-fuck-up.

That essay is a picture-perfect way for a newspaper to lose to the blogosphere.

Amazingly bad move. Someone made him do it, because a newspaper guy has an great, innate instinct not to jump out of his tower and attempt to fight the pitchforked commoners with his only weapon--one of those little plastic swords you sometimes find decorating the olive from a cheap martini.

Anonymous said...

That's the first time the Bulletin has admitted an RE suicide, no?

*

That's right tim, about two months after the fact. Costa didn't say which one, so he left a door open for another mea-culpa.

Unless we start dumping autopsy's here, and county coroner reports we're going to be mushrooms just like Costa.

What can Costa do? This shit has been published in every paper in the world, other than the local paper where the events took place.

The CORA/COBA/COVA ... COxA PR&MARKETING machine must running 24/7 trying to fix this little PR problem.

Costa reports one to date 'confirmed', and Marge reports four per week, for how long?

It's in nobody's interest to rule any Bend death here as a 'suicide'.

I would love BP to start posting autopsy reports. We would see stuff like, ...

"Victim found hanging by noose, apparent accidental death".

"Victim suffocated from CO poisoning, auto engine running in closed garage, victim taking cat nap in auto, Accidental death", ...

No 'confirmed' suicides in Bend.

*

I think 'marge' has CONFIRMED what's going on in Bend, the cops are seeing 3-4 people a week kill themselves, and county/city is covering it up.

Note, if some meth cook down in Deschutes Woods OD, or killed her pimp, that would be NEWS in the BULL!

Depression and/or melancholy deaths related to the BULL, go un-reported, "WHO WOULD HAVE GUESSED?"

Anonymous said...

He would have been far wiser to shut-the-fuck-up.

That essay is a picture-perfect way for a newspaper to lose to the blogosphere.

Amazingly bad move.

*

I think we're building consensus here, I see the same thing.

I wouldn't be surprised to see costa on this board fighting us with keystrokes,

What did they say about the Emperor and his New Clothes?

Costa is finished,

That said, I still say they bring in a Blond PR/DVA/COBA/CORA/EDCO bimbo with the tenacity Garzini to rescue the BOSS-HOGG from the masses ( taxpayers ).

Lastly COSTA the BEND BK didn't have to happen, I don't give a fuck if Brooks Resources goes BK, but you didn't have to BK bend in order to protect the hogg.


Your going to see changing heads at the BULL at often as MT-Bach now, ever few months a new Garzini to fix the mess.

Duncan McGeary said...

I wake up on a lazy Sunday. Get a cup of coffee and make sure I'm awake enough to check this week's outrage from Paul-doh.

Damn, those pictures just make my eyes bug out.

I've had about 5 belly laughs today, and I figure any day with even on belly laugh is a winner.

Costa has given us a week of blog fodder!

Anonymous said...

I knew you would love this one dunc.

P.S. Guys, all give dunc the credit for inventing the term "blogger fodder".

It's good also to see the old HOMER back,

Anonymous said...

That's the first time the Bulletin has admitted an RE suicide, no?

*

Could be the first time Costa admitted the BendBubble is over?

He apparently now saw it coming down all along?

Duncan McGeary said...

blog fodder.

Can I, like, copyright that?

hbm said...

With regards to McDonald of the SHIRE, within days of his falling @ Benham, the Source was reporting that they were skeptical of the 'accidental death' theory.

It was Ethan Lindsey at OPB who first reported that angle; then the Source's Wandering Eye picked up the story.

tim said...

If I recall correctly, the bloggers here were skeptical that the Benham Falls death was a natural death the first time it came up.

hbm said...

tim: "a newspaper guy has an great, innate instinct not to jump out of his tower and attempt to fight the pitchforked commoners with his only weapon--one of those little plastic swords you sometimes find decorating the olive from a cheap martini."

LMAO!!!

But I think you give newspaper guys in general, and Costa in particular, too much credit. Sometimes we can't resist the urge to sally forth from our castle brandishing our little plastic swords. Costa might have unwisely yielded to that impulse.

Re predictions of Bulletin bankruptcy: Won't happen. There might be some staff reductions through attrition or even actual layoffs, but as the lone daily newspaper in town The Bull is still a lovely cash cow. Since WesCom is not publicly traded there's no way of getting their financials, but I would be very surprised to find they were in dire straits.

tim said...

>>blog fodder.

>>Can I, like, copyright that?

When did you first say it? If it was well before Sept 2005, maybe.

tim said...

>>But I think you give newspaper guys in general, and Costa in particular, too much credit.

That's possible. I was a magazine guy, after all.

tim said...

I wonder.

At what time today do you think Costas realizes that he's admitted to the whole world that we have a developer suicide problem?

Bets?

bruce said...

From http://www.bendoregonrealestateexpert.com/bend-real-estate-blog/

Yesterday Jesse Felder made an informative post on his blog “Positive signs for real estate”. You can follow this link to his blog “My Back Pages”. http://mybackpagesbyjessefelder.blogspot.com/2008/08/positive-signs-for-real-estate.html

If you are interested in the Bend Oregon real estate market I suggest you read Jesse’s post. It’s very informative and provides many links to sources pointing to the possible near term bottom of this falling real estate market. I’m predicting next spring will be the bottom.

The California market is a leading indicator to the Bend and Central Oregon real estate market. Bend is a great place to live! There are some really good choices out there now and prices are down. Between now and next spring is the time to buy in Bend.


Got that?

tim said...

"Bend is a great place to live!" == "It's important that you believe me because I am desperate. Please help me!"

bruce said...

Re: Bets?

At about 7:12 AM, when he reads his own column...

tim said...

I'll say 4am, when he woke up in a sweat from a nightmare.

tim said...

You can tell from his column that he doesn't know he's going to lose.

His disparagement of the blogosphere ends up sounding to his readers just like John Edwards' disparagement of the National Enquirer.

He THINKS people will read it and think, "ah, those silly bloggers."

What he's really doing is reinforcing thoughts that have already been going around, plus putting the idea out to a whole new group of people. He's also made it acceptable for the general population to talk about the problem openly.

His foe is relentless, and 24/7. He is only human, and possible has a tin ear to how his column sounded.

Marge said...

"Costa is making a strategic blunder here, and it makes me think his mind ain't right..."

Costa is trying to save his ass, He has totally lost credibility in the blogosphere.
Ned, I checked the US patent site and blog fodder as well as blogger fodder are already trademarked. Sorry.

My, My, lot's O talk about Marge today. I am an H.O. and pay musch attention to what is going on around the county. I have for many years been close to law enforcement. Maybe that's why I have enjoyed pistol shooting since I was 30 years younger. I am not married now but have always had a lawman at my side. I am a bit out of touch with local LE, since 4 of my favs have retired in the past 1 1/2 years.

I rather doubt that anyone would be able to counter the information I have talked about here.

I encourage anyone that wants to stay here be prepared for a long hard drought.

August stats are going to surprise "the best in 20" crowd.

I know RE people that are trying to figure out how to fill the oil heating tank for the winter or buy enough wood. Ramen pantry comes to mind.

Once again "Bullets,Beans and Bandaids. If you are one of the regs here let me know if you need help.

Costa, we know you are reading this allll day long. You are an ass, in the past 20+ years I have spent 10's of thousands of $'s with the Bull and will never ever, ever, ever, ever, ever spend a penny at the Bull again.

The End.

tim said...

>>I know RE people that are trying to figure out how to fill the oil heating tank for the winter or buy enough wood. Ramen pantry comes to mind.

Oh my no, that won't do.

NEVER fill an oil heating tank with ramen.

Marge said...

By the BY, Marge is only Marge, not Buster or Homer or Ned or anyone else, I am the one the only Marge. I think Bilbo helped to creat my pen name though.

bruce said...

The SORE has had a nice RE section for the last few months as well.

One of the Buster's noted that paper had some sort of special meaning in media, it was the real thing, rather than blogs, etc. But the problem is paper costs money, meaning it needs ads or a sugar daddy. And either one is going to want to influence coverage.

Costa made his first big defensive step today. Too bad the horses were out and gone long ago. From now until defeat it's a rearguard action, kind of like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Bear Stearns, etc.

It's a lot easier to see things clearly when it's not your blood in the game.

Anonymous said...

health related jobs are the only secure jobs in town. A lot of laid off people are collecting unemployment waiting for things to pickup but just aint gonna happen.youre right about beans and bandaids, sure am glad I don"t have little kids right now.

Marge said...

Opp's Sp error once again.

Homee, I like your pictures today, they always add some visual aspect like you older posts.

tim said...

>>Costa is trying to save his ass, He has totally lost credibility in the blogosphere.

I don't see how acknowledging the blogosphere is anything but a loss for him. How could he possibly see it as a step to help him save his ass?

I see his error as an error of ego and judgment. He's being careless because he underestimates the blogs. He's not worried about them or scared of them. If he was, he would not have made this error.

Anonymous said...

Marge, you're getting pegged as Buster because your writing is somewhat similar. I personally have no opinion on the subject, but if you want to erase the perception in the future, consider the Dialectizer.

http://www.rinkworks.com/dialect/

Marge said...

Oh, Pleeze! Buster is a much better write than I. Plus his rants are way off the charts compared to my minor rants.
I'll check out the dialectizer.

B,B,B.

Anonymous said...

Tim said: "Bend is a great place to live!" == "It's important that you believe me because I am desperate. Please help me!"

You may mock this, but there must be truth this because quality of life apparently brought Tim, Homer, and several others to this place. Otherwise why in the hell would you have come? You don't seem to be permanently moored here (you're renters, right?).

It's a realtor's job to try to sell his product, just as it's a car saleman's job to sell his product, an inventor's job to sell his product, and a minister's job to sell his product, etc. etc.

Selling is the basis of Americuh!

Do you have the luxury of never having to persuade? I'll bet your wife would beg to differ.

Anonymous said...

Did you all see the movie 'V' for Vendetta?

In that movie, which is much about Bend, there is an evil boss-hogg that runs England ( Bend ). There is the evil enabling media.

The good guy is a guy in a Guy Fawkes mask. What he does is give everyone a mask and boss-hogg goes crazy.

Thus I say here that EVERYONE is Buster.

bruce said...

Of course it's his job to sell RE.

It's just amusing to watch the bottom be repeatedly called by RE salespeople.

I love the Sacramento story being sold over on Bend Economy Board.

We have a big problem with inventory. If it all sells tomorrow and is occupied, traffic will become a nightmare. If it takes time to sell, we might (big if there) be able to somewhat deal with the infrastructure needs. But I don't see anyone at the city that is interested in dealing with current infrastructure needs, only future growth plans, i.e. JR, Murphy Rd., etc. The Central Area/3rd St plan is in between.

Without adequate infrastructure Bend turns into a clusterfuck. Which is going to make it real hard to sell your RE. It's a self-defeating enterprise, pushing RE without adequate SDC's to pay for infrastructure.

Just take a drive towards the Brookswood/Reed Market roundabout any weekday around 8 AM and 4 PM. Try it this winter after the snowplows have been cut back because we are out of money...

Anonymous said...

He's being careless because he underestimates the blogs. - tim

*

Yes, and its much worse than he thinks because the COVA/COBA/EDCO ... paid PR&MARKETING RE-HO's on todays budget is way down.

A couple blond bimbos with liberal arts degrees at DVA isn't nothing compared to a couple dozen bloggers working for free.

Like the Bend Suicide story. Like it or not guys, its all over the WSJ, US New&World, Financial Times, its go more traction than any recent BEND-MEDIA campaign.

Why might you ask? Because we're fighting a war that we believe in, and the enemy has already lost the war, all his paid mercenary's know the checks will soon bounce.

The above is why Costa has no fucking idea of whats going on. I agree with Tim, on the notion of the tower, and Costa is yelling down to us hobbits with pitch-forks.

This scene is right out of the lord of the rings.

Soon Costa is going to have to layoff all his Orcs & Goblins. Then he'll be yelling into the wind.

tim said...

>>Otherwise why in the hell would you have come?

Please laugh. I came for a job. I hate skiing.

Anonymous said...

Without adequate infrastructure Bend turns into a clusterfuck. Which is going to make it real hard to sell your RE. It's a self-defeating enterprise, pushing RE without adequate SDC's to pay for infrastructure.

*

It's a dead-horse with these people BP, that's why I call them CUNTS.

At the time that Sebastian came over here from Wilsonville, they were charging $70k SDC, today Wilsonville has the best schools, fire, cops, roads, sewers, ... et-al TOP-NOTCH.

Sebastian ( now BK ) ran over to Bend, why pray tell? Because Hollern had city only charging about $10k for each home, at that time the actual cost of SDC was $60k in Bend, now much higher. Today of course SDC in Bend is FREE.

Nobody is going to come today. It's over. Bend infrastructure couldn't be fixed today if you wanted to, the last estimate was over $200k per person would have to be ponied up. A lot better to just BK the city, and blame the BK as the cause of the missing infrastructure bucks.

A don't think any of the CUNTS ( citizens of Bend ) care, nobody except a few is staying. We have been here before, me, dunc, marge, maybe bem, but I doubt it, nobody else is staying. Nobody cares what kind of cesspool Bend becomes, today its all SELL, & RUN.

tim said...

I don't buy the "quality of life" argument because everyone is different.

Bend is nice. I like the river. I'm outside every day. But I was outside every day everywhere I ever lived.

To me quality of life is mostly stuff that doesn't exist in Bend. Museums, plays, world-class symphony orchestras in world-class music halls. Really good used bookstores (sorry Duncan).

I buy that some people like what Bend has to offer. It is pretty. But special? All depends on what you like. To me it's mostly brown and ugly, but I do like the clean air.

Anonymous said...

But the problem is paper costs money, meaning it needs ads or a sugar daddy. And either one is going to want to influence coverage.

*

BP, your almost there, the cost of printing is from advertising, subscriptions pay for circulation. Behind EVERY FUCKING PAPER in ORYGUN including the SORE, there is a daddy-warbucks. Just a fucking fact.

That said, in Bend when boss-hogg goes down there will be no more sugar for any of Bend's media.

That is the fucking problem today.

"Best in 20 didn't work"

"Free and/or deferred SDC's just made people all over the USA laugh at Bend, with their pre-existing inventory"

"Toss in the fact that cheerleaders themselves are taking their own lives"

End result is the Bend-Titanic is slowly sinking. Where does COSTA start? Like HOMER said all along here, these 'ENABLERS' have been drinking their own kool-aide they really do believe their own shit.

Trouble is as we all know, good intentions and PR&MARKETING can't fix Bend, its too late. Perhaps had their been honesty, and a moratorium back in 2006, and fiscal belt tightening the city may have been saved.

Today we're looking at cops, fireman, teachers, city workers, ... all getting laid off and losing their pensions, not to mention those already getting pensions. In the worst economy in years.

Why didn't FUCKING COSTA raise the flag 2-3 years ago? Because he believed they could engineer the recovery, they believed their own BULLshit that Bend was the next Aspen.

Only NOW are the enablers beginning to realize that they have all been lying to one another.

I really think that is the reason for the 'suicide letter' today from COSTA, Audia was part of his Golf Developer/Builder circle. It was a bitch slap to see one of your own go down. Life is short. The lies that built Bend are now imploding, and their ONLY SILVER bullet PR&MARKETING doesn't work.

That's why I think they're next silver-bullet is this $400k for lawyers, city-hall is going to start using lawyers instead of PR&MARKETING to fix the problem.

It's quite brilliant take whatever good cash that is left in Bend, and give it to lawyers. Fucking Brilliant.

tim said...

My point on the quality-of-life issue is, yes, let's take it as a given that some people like Bend. Of course. (I'd say it's not as many as the number of people who like New York. Many, many more people live in and visit New York than live in and visit Bend.)

There was a hypothesis that this desirability of Bend would sustain high real estate prices.

I believe this hypothesis has just been proven incorrect.

I think the only SANE way to value houses in Bend is to look at wages in Bend.

Anonymous said...

HBM says wescom ( or whatever ) will not go BK, maybe so, but if the BULL loses all credibility, they'll get no advertising.

I don't think the 'chandler family' will BK, but I can see the BULL being sold, and later bought back for cheap. I have always thought by xmas that their will be down-sizing.

HBM is right about survival, I mean they could get as small as the SORE and survive.

Given the FREE Hollern land, they could downsize from their building, sell the existing cheap, and have lots cash.

HBM says we give the media too much credit? I don't give the bloggers any credit. The 'media' is what picks our politicians, and tells granny&grandpa how to vote. He who controls a city paper sways public sentiment, there is much power in such.

Besides that fact, the BULL is financially bound to the BOSS-HOGG, they're both the same creature with the same goals.

The Bend-Bubble was blown up with much assistance from the BULL, thus we hold it accountable for the aftermath.

WHO bounded the TABLE hardest for SDC deferral & elimination? Why the BULL.

Lastly, HBM from day-one, this blog largely lives to condemn the BULL it has no other purpose, 'blogger fodder' is only raised by BULL-shit. The Source of all inspiration on this blog has always been the BULL.

Thus COSTA is our Sauron.

Anonymous said...

I think the only SANE way to value houses in Bend is to look at wages in Bend.

*

Yes, and we have always said 4X.

Where X is income, and that is rapidly falling from the previous $40k high.

We'll be down to $28k very soon. Thus their will be many homes in Bend available for around $120k. In the coming years.

The $60k figure is 'family income', but more & more households are just a single income earner.

Places that lead Bend already seeing below $30k incomes average.

Anonymous said...

Please laugh. I came for a job. I hate skiing.


It's funny because you think we didn't know this?

How's the lawn Tim?

Anonymous said...

You can tell from his column that he doesn't know he's going to lose

*

It's tough time.

Look at history, Britain conquered Ireland by giving army's chunks of Irish land.

Hollern set it up so every player in Bend would get rich. All these REHO's, Costa Enablers, lawyers, cpas, PR, Marketing, ... they're not working for wages.

They working for the dream of get rich quick, that's why they all came to Bend.

Today Costa's mercenary army is committing suicide. The army isn't sure where the checks going to come from. The Hollern dollar is looking less valuable everyday. The Hollern-Ville crap shacks are no longer a no-brain path to riches.

Like "Best in 20", COBA/COVA/EDCO and the BULL, all Siamese twins sharing a common asshole. The PR all made to keep the mercenary army in place, to turn the tide, to continue the BendBubble forever.

Put yourselves in COSTA shoes today. How do you motivate your army? Pussy? Gold? Homes? Land? What is left of Bend to redistribute? Has not all the view been destroyed? Is the traffic today just like any other cali city?

These people have nothing to work for, and their own internal good-old-boy network members are killing themselves.

How in the HELL do you motivate the troops? REHO'?? To keep up the 'best in 20'.

Hollern & Bledsoe for months now offered cash loans to hold builders and other players over. Every bag of tricks has been played.

Now what can COSTA do? This is the question we need to ask.

They can't make SDC any lower.

Shall we now PAY city money for Brooks Resources to build?

Should city money be used to keep the BULL printing press running? HBM says that Wescomm is 'rich', but are they stupid? He would say yes, but are they stupid enough to throw good money after bad?

tim said...

>>It's funny because you think we didn't know this?

I think it's funny that everyone assumes I'm here for the skiing.

I'd end up like Sonny Bono for sure.

Anonymous said...

Time to review the HOLLERN three legged stool that COSTA is trying hold up all by himself.

Go back to 1998, when HOLLERN first engineered the current bubble. He made SDC's cheap, so cheap that it became a line item profit in itself, builders came just to build, becuase they didn't have to pay SDC's as elsewhere.

At the same time around 1998 Brooks-Resources aka HOLLERN enabled COVA, COBA, EDCO, DVA, CORA,...endless little names to PR&MARKET Bend as paradise to the world.

Then in 2002 BUSH-TRIBE brought easy-money.

This is Bends post 1998 three legged stool. SDC's, easy-money, and PR/MARKETING.

Well today the easy-money is gone, no problem still two legs so the BULL can balance the Bend stool. Trouble is PR&MARKETING don't mean anything, because the calis can sell in order to move here. So that leg is gone. All that's left is SDC, and now we're at ZERO, and there is no hurd of builders running to Bend. The ONLY people who will profit from ZERO-SDC is good-old-boyz with cash.

What can COSTA do? He can't bring easy money back? Thats the whole thing about the new-bank across from the D&D that is supposed to loan money. Will it? Can they get investors? Will they loan to people with bad credit, no down, and no job?

Can Costa make the SDC negative? Can he get the city to pay builders to build? That might make one leg of the stool taller.

Bend was #1 in appreciation in the USA 2004->2005, because of the stool, while everyone in the country had easy-money, nobody had taxpayer PR&MARKETING LIKE BEND, NOBODY had TAXPAYER SDC subsidy's for developers like BEND.

Thus BEND became #1, and COSTA was seen as a hero. NOW the only thing he can do is make SDC's negative, and find 'easy-money', and convince PR&MARKETING people to work for free.

The days of idiots FLIPPING BEND real-estate has been over for over two years.

Nobody gives a fuck about Bend. There is NO easy-money on the horizon. In fact in coming years its only going to become harder.

What does COSTA do to HOLD UP THE HOLLERN STOOL? Shall he let it crash him? Is it time that pulls his head out of Hollerns ass?

'Best in 20' the biggest PR/MARKETING bonanza to come out of the BULL in two years, is a total flop.

COSTA tried to contain the 'bend developer suicide epidemic' to no avail. There appears to be no hope.

What trick will these grifters pull out of their hat in desperate times?

They have bankrupted the city of bend, and thus soon that will not even be a source of cash for PR & MARKETING.

Once COSTA & HOLLER throw in the towel, what will their enablers at city-hall do? Will they find a new boss-hogg? Will they quit like Hummel and weather the storm in Africa??

bruce said...

For Costa:

Media Guidelines for Suicide Reporting
Are you a reporter who is working on a story related to suicide? If so, you may want to be aware of a phenomenon called "media-related suicide contagion."

According to numerous research studies, prominent media stories about suicide are associated with a significant increase in suicide attempts within the media outlet's coverage area. Adolescents and young adults seem to be especially susceptible to suicide contagion.

In order to help reporters and community officials learn about this problem and minimize the risks, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and the American Association of Suicidology have endorsed a set of recommendations to consider when reporting about suicide. These recommendations include background information as well as examples of media reports that are more likely or less likely to promote suicide contagion.

In general, research shows that the following types of news reports have an effect of increasing suicidal behavior:

* Simplifying the reasons for the suicide.
Suicide is never the result of a single factor or event, but rather results from a complex interaction of many factors and usually involves a history of psychosocial problems. Public officials and the media should carefully explain that the final precipitating event was not the only cause of a given suicide. Most persons who have committed suicide have had a history of problems that may not have been acknowledged during the acute aftermath of the suicide. Cataloguing the problems that could have played a causative role in a suicide is not necessary, but acknowledgment of these problems is recommended.

* Engaging in repetitive, ongoing, or excessive reporting of suicide in the news. Repetitive and ongoing coverage, or prominent coverage, of a suicide tends to promote and maintain a preoccupation with suicide among at-risk persons, especially among persons 15-24 years of age. This preoccupation appears to be associated with suicide contagion. Information presented to the media should include the association between such coverage and the potential for suicide contagion. Public officials and media representatives should discuss alternative approaches for coverage of newsworthy suicide stories.

* Providing sensational coverage of suicide.
By its nature, news coverage of a suicidal event tends to heighten the general public's preoccupation with suicide. This reaction is also believed to be associated with contagion and the development of suicide clusters. Public officials can help minimize sensationalism by limiting, as much as possible, morbid details in their public discussions of suicide. News media professionals should attempt to decrease the prominence of the news report and avoid the use of dramatic photographs related to the suicide (e.g., photographs of the funeral, the deceased person's bedroom, and the site of the suicide).

* Reporting "how-to" description of suicide. Describing technical details about the method of suicide is undesirable. For example, reporting that a person died from carbon monoxide poisoning may not be harmful; however, providing details of the mechanism and procedures used to complete the suicide may facilitate imitation of the suicidal behavior by other at-risk persons.

* Presenting suicide as a tool for accomplishing certain ends. Suicide is usually a rare act of a troubled or depressed person. Presentation of suicide as a means of coping with personal problems (e.g., the breakup of a relationship or retaliation against parental discipline) may suggest suicide as a potential coping mechanism to at-risk persons. Although such factors often seem to trigger a suicidal act, other psychopathological problems are almost always involved. If suicide is presented as an effective means for accomplishing specific ends, it may be perceived by a potentially suicidal person as an attractive solution.

* Glorifying suicide or persons who commit suicide. News coverage is less likely to contribute to suicide contagion when reports of community expressions of grief (e.g., public eulogies, flying flags at half-mast, and erecting permanent public memorials) are minimized. Such actions may contribute to suicide contagion by suggesting to susceptible persons that society is honoring the suicidal behavior of the deceased person, rather than mourning the person's death.

* Focusing on the suicide completer’s positive characteristics. Empathy for family and friends often leads to a focus on reporting the positive aspects of a suicide completer's life. For example, friends or teachers may be quoted as saying the deceased person "was a great kid" or "had a bright future," and they avoid mentioning the troubles and problems that the deceased person experienced. As a result, statements venerating the deceased person are often reported in the news. However, if the suicide completer's problems are not acknowledged in the presence of these laudatory statements, suicidal behavior may appear attractive to other at-risk persons -- especially those who rarely receive positive reinforcement for desirable behaviors.

In addition to these guidelines, The American Association of Suicidology recommends that media reports about suicide include potential warning signs, as well as information on community resources (such as Helpline 2-1-1) for those who may be suicidal or who know people who are.

If you have further questions, please contact our Director of Hotline Programs at (850) 617-6302. Professional staff members from 2-1-1 Big Bend are available to meet with reporters to provide additional information about suicide and the services available in our community.

bruce said...

Another anecdote about how slow the local economy is: Widgi had a grand total of 20 entrants in their Club Championship this weekend.

Marge said...

I can see Bledsoe sitting in his loft. The new Godfather, come fucking kiss my ring and I may loan you money. It will cost you dearly. How many young daughters do you have? My friend Costa needs runners to deliver his rag. When you deliver be sure to squeeze them for some cash. You will always owe me and never forget that. I have bought this fucking town, you work for me now. Two pigs in a blanket.
Bledsoe..you loser..you think you can be a big man in a small town like Bend. Fuck you. You are wrong!
Same goes for no dick Costa. You pimp, we know you are reading everything here today. Bitch.

Anonymous said...

"I don't buy the "quality of life" argument because everyone is different.

To me quality of life is mostly stuff that doesn't exist in Bend. Museums, plays, world-class symphony orchestras in world-class music halls. Really good used bookstores (sorry Duncan).

I buy that some people like what Bend has to offer. It is pretty. But special? All depends on what you like. To me it's mostly brown and ugly, but I do like the clean air."

Jesus CHRIST Tim - I swear to GAWD you just possessed me and pulled that shit right out of my own head. Stay out of there damnit!!!

I'm trying to say I agree 110% with what you said... I've always maintained this shithole is a big brown weed patch with a few pockets of attractive scenery...

tim said...

>>I've always maintained this shithole is a big brown weed patch with a few pockets of attractive scenery...

All the brown & ugly is what makes the land next to the river so valuable.

We also have a lot of "fake" green that is kinda artificial and disappointing. And it's in hella trouble if we run into water trouble.

What happens to all those marginal golf courses then?

hbm said...

tim: My point on the quality-of-life issue is, yes, let's take it as a given that some people like Bend. ... There was a hypothesis that this desirability of Bend would sustain high real estate prices. I believe this hypothesis has just been proven incorrect.

Bend is desirable. The flaw in the hypothesis was the belief that Bend is UNIQUELY desirable, so much so that people would pay ridiculous prices to live here. It just ain't so.

Bend has much to offer, but many other places offer as much or more. Those who bought into the "Bend is unique" delusion were those who either knew nothing about other places or made the fatal mistake of believing their own PR.

Anonymous said...

Hey everyone, get ready for the economy to pick up...

"By 2013, you should be feeling pretty good about economic growth," said Christine Chmura, president and chief economist for Chmura Economics and Analytics in Richmond.

Anonymous said...

Marge,

Grasshopper, I just want to say the force is strong with this one.

Yes, you are very much part of Springfield. When you showed up last year we begged you to write, but you feared now today, you are our best writer, keep up the good work.


Give them hell Marge.

buster,

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

hbm... Nice cover with Sumi. She Hot.

Marge said...

B. Not hot grasshopper says thanks.
It will be most interesting to see the end of Aug. stats. Shall put the writing on the wall for the impending crunch/crash for the winter. It will not be pretty...but I have the 3 B's.

Marge said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Marge said...

Night all,
What's up with Springfield..this is Bend a much worse off place to live than Springfield. We going down big time..

LavaBear said...

Take a load off Fannie

bruce said...

News from those feeder markets our RE guys are so fond of saying are "coming back", meaning Bend will come back soon:

Los Angeles, San Diego Luxury-Home Prices Fall Most in Decade

By Dan Levy

Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Luxury-home prices in the Los Angeles and San Diego areas fell the most in more than 10 years in the second quarter as stricter lending terms reduced the number of buyers, while the San Francisco Bay area was little changed.

The average price of a luxury home in Los Angeles dropped 3.8 percent in the quarter from a year earlier, the most since 1996, according to a survey by First Republic Bank, a unit of Merrill Lynch & Co. Luxury homes were defined as those costing more than $1 million with up to 6,000 square feet (557 square meters), six bedrooms and six bathrooms. Prices fell 7.8 percent in San Diego, the most since 1997, while San Francisco prices rose 0.2 percent.

``Values of luxury homes throughout California remain under pressure due to increased caution among buyers,'' Katherine August-deWilde, president and chief operating officer of San Francisco-based First Republic Bank, said in a statement today.

Lenders are requiring higher credit scores and larger down- payments after more than $500 billion in subprime-related writedowns and credit losses at financial firms worldwide since the beginning of 2007. Purchases made with jumbo loans, those over $417,000, fell by half in July in the San Francisco Bay Area, MDA Dataquick reported last week. Jumbo loans accounted for 16 percent of July home purchases in Southern California compared with almost 40 percent before banks raised standards, MDA Dataquick said.

Average Prices

The average price of a Los Angeles-area luxury home is now $2.37 million, a 1 percent increase from the first quarter, First Republic said. The average San Diego price is $2.02 million, down 2 percent, and the average San Francisco price is $3.01 million, up 0.1 percent, according to First Republic.

San Diego values have fallen for four straight quarters on a quarterly and year-over-year basis, First Republic said.

Prices may drop further in San Diego because of growing inventory and reduced availability of jumbo mortgages, broker Amy Green of Prudential California Realty, said in the statement.

In Los Angeles, properties ``with any perceived issues'' aren't attracting buyers, said Mary Beth Woods of Coldwell Banker.

``For a home to sell at the asking price, it needs to be a premium property in a premium location and in premium condition,'' Woods said.

San Francisco's luxury-home inventory is limited, keeping prices from falling, said Chris O'Connor of McGuire Real Estate.

``However, there is more balance in the negotiations between buyers and sellers on both price and terms,'' O'Connor said.

First Republic tracks prices with Fiserv CSW Inc., a provider of automated property valuation services for financial institutions. The companies measure a basket of homes costing more than $1 million in places such as Beverly Hills, Brentwood and La Jolla in Southern California and Belvedere, Hillsborough, Healdsburg and Woodside in Northern California.

bruce said...

In the "it's going to get even worse before it gets better" column, excerpts:

Libor Signals Tighter Credit as Banks Balk at Lending

...``It's like an ongoing nightmare and no one is sure when we're going to wake up,'' said Thomson, a money manager in Glasgow at Resolution, which oversees $46 billion in bonds. ``Things are going to get worse before they get better.'' ...``These problems going into year-end are likely to be worse this time round because of the amount banks have to refinance in December,'' Thomson said, citing a figure of $88 billion. ``The suspicion is that banks are still hiding losses. The banking system relies on trust and at the minute there quite simply isn't any.'' ...

Then on Aug. 9, 2007, Paris-based BNP Paribas SA halted withdrawals from three investment funds because it couldn't ``fairly'' value their subprime debt holdings and the European Central Bank took the unprecedented action of offering to pump unlimited cash into the banking system. The BNP funds had about 1.6 billion euros ($2.2 billion) of assets.

Losses and writedowns on securities related to home loans to people with poor credit now exceed $504 billion at financial institutions. Last month Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson was forced to seek congressional authority to inject unlimited capital into Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are responsible for about 42 percent of the $12 trillion U.S. home loan market, after their shares tumbled about 90 percent, wiping out some $54 billion of stock market value.

Trust among banks remains low even after the Fed cut its target rate for overnight loans to 2 percent from 5.25 percent in September and created three emergency lending programs, including the Term Auction Facility, or TAF. In total, the Fed has provided almost $1 trillion of emergency loans....

``Libor markets aren't reflective of the entire banking system but of three or four major banks that continue to have pressure on liquidity,''...The crisis is ``not over and I'm not exactly sure when it's going to end,'' Nobel Prize-winning economist Myron Scholes said Aug. 21 at a conference in Lindau, Germany, featuring 14 Nobel laureates in economics.

Anonymous said...

What's up with Springfield..

*

I think its essential to have lightness and humor in the midst of calamity.

Most people that have survived bad times, have kept their sense of humor.

I think that is what attracts people to BB2 is Homer's gallows humor style.

Springfield is a idyllic town that we all know, that even if Bend had a population of 15k ( I wish ), that we would still have our fuck-ups like Springfield.

Anonymous said...

hbm... Nice cover with Sumi. She Hot.

Thanks -- she is indeed a cutie. I have nothing to do with picking the covers, however.

Anonymous said...

"Banks are holding losses" - BP

"There are no boss-hoggs in Bend"

A few weeks ago, the banks in Australia marked their USA housing bonds to market. What resulted was the biggest fall in Aussie bank stocks ever. That said, they now known their bottom.

In the USA the problem isn't just banks, it pension funds, and mutuals, and ...

Classic investment is 1/2 bond, 1/2 stock, say 90% of bond value gets wiped out, that means that almost 1/2 of all net-worth of US retirees and savers gets wiped out.

"Banks are holding off marking to market"

Well let's just say that everyone is holding off because they HOPE that things will be fixed.

This of course is exactly like Bend, where people HOLD their home at a expectational value and wait for a buyer, eventually something gives.

In the case of the USA, people will want to redeem their money, there is NO LIQUIDITY, and most of these bonds are un-saleable at any price.

It appears with Australia dumping their toxic US paper, that the world is orderly disposing this shit, and the USA will be the last man holding the toxic bag of worthless shit.

Anonymous said...

I can see Bledsoe sitting in his loft. The new Godfather, come fucking kiss my ring and I may loan you money. It will cost you dearly. How many young daughters do you have?

*

I can see someone like Bledsoe, picking up the vacuum of what HOLLERN leaves, given that the enabling city-hall CUNT of Bend, know no other way than hogg ownership in our little fascist serfdom known as Bend.

Trouble is BLEDSOE is a fucking idiot, building $4M cigar-club next to the D&D in the worse economy in 20+ years. Building his mansion right across the street on Skyline, from the new elementary school past Summit High. If you go up past the high on skyline, then on the right is the new uncompleted elementary. From their directly across the street and up a couple 100 yards is the un-completed Bledsoe mansion on Highlands at Broken-Top. The basement is a 10k sq-ft 20 ft high gym, he wanted to put it ground level, but the city made him put it underground, so now its under the house. Cost? Over $10M.

FOLKS, BLEDSOE is a man with a FUCKING EGO! If you look at HOLLERN, you note this 'godfather' keeps a low cover, he ain't out front and center, in the cigar club, and building his mansion right on the fucking freeway.

Two people today in Bend are offering cash to any builder who wants a private loan, Bledsoe & Hollern. From what I understand they aren't competing with one another. There is no apparent hier to the HOLLERN boss-hogg pig farm, thus it will be up for grabs.

Might be ..

1.) Borgman of Les Schwab

2.) Kuratek if he plays it right, and keeps a low profile, and keeps all of city-hall nuts in the vise as him & garzini have done all along.

3.) Bledsoe, but I honestly think he'll BK himself, smart folk don't spend money like NO tomorrow in a depression, smart folk hunker down. Bledsoe ain't smart enough to be a boss-hogg. That said, he's got his brother and tons of enablers, ...

HBM, what do you think, post Hollern, I mean he's getting old. Do you see any major good old boy, that can do what Marge here proposes as the 'godfather' of Bend?

In the valley we had Goldschimdt for years as the god-father of PDX-SALEM, he was a king-maker, then went down over 14 yr old pussy. Today its Homer Williams of PDX, of course Homer was always enabling Goldschimdt in the first place.

I would watch BORGMAN, He could be like Schwab, remember when Bill Smith ( another HOGG contender ) needed Old-Mill money, he went to Schwab, and that's why we got the Schwab Ampth. Borgman ain't bound by ego, he railed the Les-Schwab JR sales agreement through city-hall, like he owned city-hall.

Borgman is a real fucking god father, note how often you hear peep about him in the BULL?

Then compare Bledsoe, the BULL praises him like they did Audia, or building the disposable housing in the worst Bend economy since the timber recession.

Anonymous said...

Everyone is waiting for California to start selling some houses so that people can move up to Bend--the problem is, if the houses are selling for 30-50% less in California, does anyone really think those Californians are going to pay current asking prices in Bend? Bend has to drop 30-50% as well.

Anonymous said...

In total, the Fed has provided almost $1 trillion of emergency loans....

*

It's never going to end, the USA is now in perpetual bubble cycle, and wars.

They'll keep printing money, to create liquidity. The dollar will continue to become worthless, which means offshore oil will become more expensive.

Smart people will figure out how to get around using non-imported energy.

Anonymous said...

Bend has to drop 30-50% as well.

*

Yes, and at today $260k median in Bend, that be about $140k, which is a nice sweet spot between $120k and $180k.

At $150k a home pencils for land-lords, thats the point where investors that know what they're doing will be buying the cream.

We'll see $240k later this year, and $180k next year.

Anonymous said...

Being praised by the BULL is the kiss of death.

tim said...

``Libor markets aren't reflective of the entire banking system but of three or four major banks that continue to have pressure on liquidity,''...The crisis is ``not over and I'm not exactly sure when it's going to end,'' Nobel Prize-winning economist Myron Scholes said Aug. 21 at a conference in Lindau, Germany, featuring 14 Nobel laureates in economics.

Wow. Scholes finally got quoted without LTCM being mentioned. He must be happy about that.

Anonymous said...

"The basement is a 10k sq-ft 20 ft high gym"

He can probably lease it out to hold kindergartners when Summit high can't accommodate them any more.

Anonymous said...

Article in today's bull says new dental school will put off opening until 2010! Oversized eyesore of a building will be complete later this year, but will sit empty?!? Corp. has too many other opportunities right now... WTF

Marge said...

August blowing the skirt off February. August SFR sales are outpacing Feb sales by 20%.
Month to date sales as of the 25th in Feb were a fledgling 42. Hot August, best month of the year, has a whopping 58 sales @ a median of $280k. All other months in between have beat August this year.

Anonymous said...

Oversized eyesore of a building will be complete later this year, but will sit empty?!?

*

The next few years your going to see 100's of albatross buildings in Bend, with plywood covering.

Best time to collect 'scrap' in 20 years.

Nothing like new fixtures, and materials just sitting around asking to walk-away.

Maybe the outbound U-Hauls will even become in more demand?

At least if your new building 'walks-away' you claim insurance!

Anonymous said...

Across the street from dental albatross, the once listed as a bb2RIP, "The Village" is still trying for traction. Developers now want city to elongate their already 2 years moves to 4 years phasing plan to 5+ years with a call-as-you-go building determination. Plan is for 5 buildings and they can't decide which one to build first! City needs to step up to the plate and stop these future meth warehouses from being built. The economy is in the toilet and the city shouldn't flush us all down with it.

Anonymous said...

Things aren't (yet) nearly as bad as they are in Merced, CA. They got the university Bend wishes it has -- but the investment got WAY out in front of the university.

Nice pics at: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/24/business/24house.html

August 24, 2008

In the Central Valley, the Ruins of the Housing Bust

By DAVID STREITFELD
MERCED, Calif.

ELLIE WOOTEN, the likable mayor of this likable Central Valley city, is on her way to the office when her cellphone rings. A constituent wants her mortgage payments reduced, and is hoping that the mayor has some clout with her lender.

Although Merced has one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country, this borrower isn’t in such dire straits. She’s not even behind on her mortgage. But her oldest daughter is turning 18, which means an end to $500 a month in child support. She just wants a better deal.

The mayor hangs up and shrugs: “It’s a surprise her daughter is turning 18? You’d think she could have planned ahead.”

But hardly anyone in Merced planned very far ahead.

Not the city, which enthusiastically approved the creation of dozens of new neighborhoods without pausing to wonder if it could absorb the growth.

Certainly not the developers. They built 4,397 new homes in those neighborhoods, some costing half a million dollars, without asking who in a city of only 80,000 could afford to buy them all.

Obviously not the speculators turned landlords, who thought that they could get San Francisco rents in a working-class agricultural city ranked by the American Lung Association as having some of the worst air in the nation.

And, sadly, not the local folk who moved up and took on more debt than they could afford. They believed — because who was telling them differently? — that the good times would be endless.

“Owning a home is the American dream,” says Jamie Schrole, a Merced real estate agent. “Everybody was just trying to live out their dream.”

The belief that this dream could be achieved with no risk, no worry and no money down was at the center of the American romance with real estate in the early years of this decade, and not just in Merced.

How long will the economy have to pay the price for that illusion? The experience of Merced, which rose higher and fell faster than nearly anywhere else, suggests that recovery from the national real estate debacle will be painful and protracted.

In the three years since housing peaked here, the median sales price has fallen by 50 percent. There are thousands of foreclosures on the market. The asking prices on those properties are so low that competitive bidding, a hallmark of the boom, is back.

But almost no homeowner can afford to sell. If you cannot go as low as “the foreclosure price” — the cost of a comparable bank-owned house — real estate agents say you might as well not even bother listing your home.

And so most people do not: three out of four existing-home sales in Merced County are now foreclosures, the highest percentage in the state, according to DataQuick Information Systems. The only group for whom selling makes sense, real estate agents here say, are the elderly entering assisted-living facilities, who often have decades of appreciation built into their home’s value.

As Merced goes, so might go much of the nation. With as many as 2.5 million homes in the United States entering foreclosure this year and, at best, sales of only five million existing houses, the foreclosure price is becoming the rule in many areas. In Los Angeles County, whose 10 million people make it the most populous county in the United States, a third of the sales are foreclosures.

Local markets will not truly begin to recover until their foreclosures are absorbed, but just as few in Merced saw reasons for caution at the height of the boom, hardly anyone is optimistic now. Bank repossessions are accelerating as overleveraged owners see the value of their properties sink. Merced County had a record 523 foreclosures in July, quadruple the rate of a year earlier, according to DataQuick.

The repossessions are accelerating as overleveraged owners see the value of their properties sink and can find no way out.

Beverly Red, the woman who called the mayor to get a better deal, says she started working months ago to renegotiate her loan into something she could better afford on her receptionist’s salary. No one takes her seriously, she says, because she is not behind on her payments, which, of course, is exactly what she is trying to avoid.

“This has been my home for 10 years,” says Ms. Red, a divorced mother of three. “It won’t be good for me, or my neighbors, or the bank, or Merced, if I lose it. Yet that’s where I’m headed. It’s very frustrating.”

THE boom here allowed some people to become rich overnight and gave many more the idea that they could do it, too. Ms. Schrole, a single mother of four, succumbed to temptation too late: she bought a home as an investment, sold her own home, bought a much more expensive one, and lost both. “I was stupid,” she says. “I didn’t get in until things started to tank.”

Ms. Schrole is in bankruptcy. Other homeowners are taking their declining fortunes into their own hands. On a recent Sunday evening, an extended family of a dozen children, teenagers and adults is unloading a U-Haul into a house in a two-year-old subdivision called Summer Creek. The patriarch takes a break from wrestling with a refrigerator to explain he has abandoned his house a few miles away and is now renting this nearly-new five-bedroom.

The result, he says happily, is a drop in his monthly housing bill to $1,200 from $3,400. Somewhere a lender is recording yet another foreclosure.

Businesses in Merced are struggling. Downtown buildings are festooned with “for lease” signs. Unemployment, consistently high here, rose to 12.1 percent in July.

Among those trying to adapt to this miserable new time is the mayor. Mrs. Wooten, 74, has been selling real estate for three decades. In the old days, she worked for people selling their boom-inflated homes and moving into something better. Now she mostly represents banks, selling their foreclosures. She has 27 at the moment.

In her windowless city office, she takes a call from a man in Seattle who is interested in a 1947 home in bad repair in a bad neighborhood, but which has a large yard for his dogs.

In November 2005, the house sold for $126,000. The bank, which took it back last spring, is asking $59,000. The Seattle man offers $40,000.

The mayor says the lender is not desperate enough to take that big a haircut. “Not going to happen,” she says. “Not this year.” She laughs. “Call me in January and I’ll let you know.” Mrs. Wooten is wearing a red shirt that says, “Merced: Invest in California’s Future.” Which is pretty much how all the trouble began.

Starting in 2000, investors came over the mountains from San Francisco, up Interstate 5 from Los Angeles and out of the woodwork from many a surrounding hamlet. Over the next five years, prices in Merced rose 142 percent, a growth rate that ranked it in the top five communities in the country, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.

One thing above all drew the investors: the prospect of a University of California campus on the edge of Merced, the first new campus in the state system in 40 years. They envisioned something resembling Davis, another Central Valley university town.

The University of California, Davis, however, has more than 30,000 students and is within easy reach of San Francisco and Sacramento. U.C. Merced, which opened in 2005, has fewer than 2,000 students and isn’t near much except Modesto. Instead of students or professors renting their houses, speculators say, they had welfare recipients or no one.

Many in Merced blame out-of-town buyers, who at the peak made up more than a quarter of the local market, for their current woes.

Now there are investors again. Mark Seivert, an accountant who lives in the neighboring town of Atwater, didn’t buy anything during the boom. Anyone, he says, “could have figured out that too much inventory and not enough bodies was a recipe for disaster.”

This summer, the numbers are sweet. He is working on a deal for a short sale, in which a lender agrees to let a house go for less than it is owed in return for getting the property off its books immediately.

Mr. Seivert is going after a house that the owners bought 13 years ago for $86,000 and refinanced six times, taking advantage of rising values to get cash that, in part, they spent on the house. It has a pool with a small waterfall, a TV room in the converted garage, a deluxe outdoor barbecue setup and a kitchen with all the latest gadgets.

The owners, who owe $350,000, can no longer make their mortgage payments. Mr. Seivert is negotiating to buy the house for $170,000 and then rent it back to the couple, who have jobs in the area. They will pay $1,100 instead of their current $2,600 a month.

“This could be a win-win,” the accountant says. “In four or five years, when their credit is better and the market has recovered, I’ll sell the house back to them.”

Longtime renters are also seizing the moment. Sally Johnson just bought a house that had been foreclosed at the edge of Bellevue Ranch, a huge master-planned community north of town. She paid $164,900, half the price the previous owners paid two years ago.

The market is “probably going to go lower,” says Ms. Johnson, who works at a local jewelry store. But time is on her side: She got a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The landscapers will be by shortly to breathe new life into her golden lawn.

Next door is Sheng Lee, who bought at the top with a “pick a payment” loan, which allows borrowers to make less than their fully amortized payments, but only for a few years. Since Mr. Lee, a high school aide, doesn’t have enough equity to refinance, he now needs a loan modification or a miracle. “I’ll try my best to pay my mortgage, but if not I’ll have no choice to leave like the other people,” he says.

Mr. Lee harbors no bitterness that his new neighbor got a slightly smaller house for half the price. “It’s her luck. Why would I be mad at her?” he asks. He brought her fried rice and noodles as a house-warming gift.

Another neighbor, Van Lewis, fits somewhere in between Mr. Lee and Ms. Johnson. He also bought two years ago, but says he is in a position to ride out the slump. “You have to plan for the long term,” he says. “If you don’t, the short term can kill you.” In any case, he adds, he has “too much stuff” to ever go back to an apartment.

Opposite their houses is an immense scrubby field. Until recently, it was overgrown, and Mr. Lewis says he has seen evidence of fires started by youths or vagrants. “There were supposed to be stores and a fire station over there,” he says with more resignation than anger. “We could all march down to city hall and picket, but what’s really going to happen with that?”

Things could be worse. Crime is up only marginally. There has been no major upswing in homelessness; the theory around city hall is that foreclosed families are either renting or have left the area.

Yet things may well become worse soon. During the good times, Merced built up a $17 million rainy-day fund. Now the city has a revenue shortfall. “We’ll bridge that gap by using the reserves,” says James Marshall, the city manager, “but over time the bridge ain’t long enough.”

FLIPPERS and speculators who had nothing invested in Merced beyond money were the first to abandon the community.

Many real estate agents and loan brokers, their customers gone, soon followed. So did commuters who thought they could spend four hours a day making round trips to the San Francisco Bay Area. And the spinners, young men and women hired by the developers to stand at intersections and literally point the way to the new developments, disappeared.

Now developers are pulling out.

Pacific Pride, a Central Valley developer, announced plans to build a 124-house neighborhood but gave up after paving streets and installing a wall as a partition from the railroad tracks. Graffiti runs the length of the wall. The site was declared a public nuisance by the city last winter. Messages left on a voice-mailbox belonging to Pacific Pride were not returned.

Moraga, built by Lakemont Homes of Roseville, Calif., was designed to include 500 luxury homes that ranged in size up to 3,500 square feet, boasting such amenities as butler pantries, double ovens, master suites with walk-in closets, five-foot-long soaking tubs and three-car garages.

The subdivision centerpiece, completed first, is an expansive and pleasant park, with two baseball fields, basketball courts, a picnic area and children’s playground. All that’s missing are many houses. Only about 24 were built. One was just listed as a foreclosure for $219,000, a deep discount to the already discounted price of $310,000 for that model. The Lakemont agent says that there have been no sales for a long time.

At least Lakemont is still keeping up appearances. At Gardenstone, part of the Bellevue Ranch development, the doors of the sales office are covered with plywood, as if a big storm were coming. A few blocks away is Riverstone, probably the bleakest Merced subdivision. A dozen houses were started here and then the construction workers went away. The wooden frames have been bleaching in the sun and sand for more than a year.

Both Gardenstone and Riverstone are the work of Crosswinds Communities, a developer based in Novi, Mich., that is owned and run by Bernie Glieberman. Reached at his office, Mr. Glieberman is asked if he and his fellow developers perhaps got a bit —

“No question,” he interrupts enthusiastically. “I would never deny we all got greedy. Everyone was setting records. Nobody was there to take away the punch bowl.”

He was selling houses for $300,000. That means a buyer would have needed a household income of about $100,000 to comfortably make the payments. But Merced’s per capita income of $23,864 ranks among the lowest for metropolitan areas in the country. “None of us paid much attention,” Mr. Glieberman says.

Yet he says the real problem was not over-eager developers but underhanded buyers — which is to say investors.

“We didn’t know we were selling to speculators,” the builder says. “They swore they were going to live in the houses.” He says he found out otherwise only after the plunge began and people started trying to get refunds on deposits of as much as $60,000.

Some said that they had lost their jobs, others that there were illnesses in their families. And some said they should get a refund because, as investors instead of owner-occupants, they should never have been allowed to buy the house in the first place. By then, it didn’t matter. Crosswinds didn’t refund any deposits.

Mr. Glieberman says that he intends to come back and finish those houses, that he is confident Merced will turn around.

For that to happen, banks will have to become more willing to lend. At the moment, however, they’re growing ever more reluctant.

Consider the experience of a couple moving to Merced last month from a nearby town. Their mortgage broker set up a Federal Housing Administration loan for them, which meant that it would be guaranteed by the federal government.

To finance the loan, the broker went to the HSBC Mortgage Corporation. At the last minute, HSBC said no, giving reasons that had nothing to do with the couple’s finances or their new house.

“Property is unacceptable due to high foreclosure rate and volatility of subject market,” HSBC informed the couple via fax. Apparently, even a government guarantee wasn’t enough.

Such emphatic declarations bode ill for a recovery, says Robert Gnaizda, general counsel of the Greenlining Institute, a housing advocacy group. “If a few institutions take the position that prices in the Central Valley are still excessive and they need to wait to finance houses there, you’ll have the total collapse of the market.”

A spokeswoman for HSBC says it has financed 36 mortgages in Merced County this year but declined to comment on the fax.


THE real estate boom, while it lasted, made Merced prosperous. Now the question is what can make it thrive once more, presumably on a more sustainable basis.

The university is an asset that will take time to develop. This is excellent farm country, but these days agriculture is not an occupation that creates a broad middle class.

Wal-Mart Stores is proposing to build a distribution center in Merced, but there is a movement against it among residents who say that trucks shuttling around the complex will worsen the breathing problems of the city’s children. Merced County has one of the highest percentages of asthmatic children in the state, according to a 2001 state health survey. Many children carry inhalers to help them breathe.

In the midst of all the wreckage caused by the real estate boom and bust, some think that they have found a way forward: build more houses, thousands and thousands of them.

On the western edge of Merced County, near the Diablo Range that separates the Central Valley from the Pacific Coast, is a stretch of empty land that a coalition of landowners has wanted to build on for years. The plan calls for the eventual construction of a city of 16,000 houses called the Villages of Laguna San Luis.

In many ways, the idea makes sense. The pass over the mountains is winding and slow, but if a proposed high-speed train is ever built, the Villages could end up being a bedroom community for San Jose. By 2025, California is projected to grow to 44 million people from the current 37 million. They will need somewhere to live.

This summer, the Villages came up for a vote with the Merced County Planning Commission. Cindy Lashbrook, a commissioner who is a fruit-and-nut farmer, says the project was basically well thought out. But all the cars that came with all those new houses would cause even more pollution. And in a state suffering from drought, where would the water come from?

“We have to stop thinking that more growth is always the answer,” Ms. Lashbrook says. “We have more housing than we need. We need jobs.”

She voted against the project, which faltered on a 2-to-2 split, with one commissioner absent. That meant supporters could bring it up again before the full commission, which they did. They won the second round, 4 to 1.

Rudy Buendia, the commissioner who dissented along with Ms. Lashbrook on the first vote, was in favor the second time around. Reached on his cellphone, Mr. Buendia said he was out hanging drywall on a construction project and did not have time to talk.

bruce said...

Re: The owners, who owe $350,000, can no longer make their mortgage payments. Mr. Seivert is negotiating to buy the house for $170,000 and then rent it back to the couple, who have jobs in the area. They will pay $1,100 instead of their current $2,600 a month.

“This could be a win-win,” the accountant says. “In four or five years, when their credit is better and the market has recovered, I’ll sell the house back to them.”


Buster, you all over that?

Re:During the good times, Merced built up a $17 million rainy-day fund. Now the city has a revenue shortfall. “We’ll bridge that gap by using the reserves,” says James Marshall, the city manager, “but over time the bridge ain’t long enough.”

Here in Bend, we are already through almost all the reserves we "built up"...

Re: In the midst of all the wreckage caused by the real estate boom and bust, some think that they have found a way forward: build more houses, thousands and thousands of them.

When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail...

Anonymous said...

Boss Hogg Hollern, has added a new pig to the city-hall pig trough.


Portland firm opens new office in Bend

POSTED: 04:00 AM PDT Monday, August 25, 2008
BY DJC STAFF

Kittelson & Associates Inc. has opened a new office in Bend’s Old Mill District.

KAI is an international transportation planning, engineering and research firm that has been involved with the U.S. 97/U.S. 20 Refinement Plan; city of Madras and Jefferson County Transportation Plans; Westside Consortium; Old Mill District master plan; Billy Healy Bridge; Northwest Crossing; and other private and public projects throughout Central Oregon. Its corporate headquarters are located in Portland.

The firm’s new office is located at 345 S.W. Upper Terrace Drive, Suite 101, in Bend, and it will be led by Joe Bessman, Scott Beaird and Casey Bergh.

Anonymous said...

The owners, who owe $350,000, can no longer make their mortgage payments. Mr. Seivert is negotiating to buy the house for $170,000... “In four or five years, ... I’ll sell the house back to them.” { For $350k }

*

Shit this boy Seivert could get a bogg-hogg enabler job in a second, he knows the fucking program.

Anonymous said...

FLIPPERS and speculators who had nothing invested in Merced beyond money were the first to abandon the community.


*

What kind of fucking 'pussy' statement is this??

Flip's & Spec's only invested money? There were people in Merced who had invested something else?

This is pussy talk, goes to show that every village has their dumb-cunt.

bruce said...

Ya know, Homer, I keep coming back to those two graphs at the top of this weeks post. Government Supported Enterprises imploding, absolutely fucking imploding, in a few months time. They look like some dot-com with three MBA's behind it.

But they're not. We are going to pump untold billions of taxpayers dollars into them.

What troubles me most is who's next. How many are next.

BushCo fanned the flames big time. Now's the time the earth gets torched.

B,B and B, as Marge notes, and you'll always survive.

I've got to admit that seeing such giant pieces of our economy go down like that really fucking rattles me.

There is a real sea change going on here. A Dylan song is on the tip of my mind trying to tell me so.

bruce said...

Techically, government "sponsored", but you all know what I mean...

tim said...

>>A Dylan song is on the tip of my mind trying to tell me so.

I know exactly which one you're thinking of...

Mona tried to tell me
To stay away from the train line.
She said that all the railroad men
Just drink up your blood like wine.
An' I said, "Oh, I didn't know that,
But then again, there's only one I've met
An' he just smoked my eyelids
An' punched my cigarette."

bruce said...

"And the ladies treat me kindly
And furnish me with tape,
But deep inside my heart
I know I can't escape."

Marge said...

Bruce said
"I've got to admit that seeing such giant pieces of our economy go down like that really fucking rattles me."

Brucey this is the end of Bend as we know it (TITEOBAWKI) and it will be the new economy. We may not like it much, it will include much bartering. That has already begun. The garage sales? ask at the pawn shops what is being traded in. The answer started with tools and now includes wedding rings, kitchen small appliances, silverware, penny collections, guns. It's already here. Open your eyes people. Just because you have not tried to sell off that which you don't really need doesn't mean it ain't here NOW.

Marge said...

New post at
http://benddenial.blogspot.com/

Ok, I am slow to post.

Anonymous said...

I've got to admit that seeing such giant pieces of our economy go down like that really fucking rattles me.

*


A rattled 'pussy' there is never been a better contrarian 'BUY' signal.

Fan & Fred have been going down for 2+ years, and the WSJ has been covering every fucking move down. Who in the hell didn't know they were going down? The pussy?

This is got to be one of the slowest moving train wrecks in my lifetime, but folks still bought the falling knife in spite of wall street sages saying that FRED&FAN were shit eating government parasites.

Is it the end of the world? Hell NO! The entire BendBubble was ran on private financing, and that BOND has yet to be marked to market.

Will there ever be money ever again to buy a home? Hell yes, Hollern & Bledsoe will loan you today, but like Marge said, they'll want first right entry to your daughters.

Anonymous said...

benddenial.blogspot.com

Marge is ON A ROLL!!!!

We have created a monster.

Keep up the good work marge, I always knew she had it in her.

I think we'll see more Marges over time, the quickest way to 'fix' Bend, is come out with the TRUTH,

Bankrupting the city, and adding to inventory, and deferring SDC's will never make Bend a better city. Telling the people the truth today is what needs to be done, a new breed of politicians that tell the truth, and a new breed of realtors, and MTG brokers, ... that tell the truth. Then & only then will Bend become a decent place to live.


benddenial.blogspot.com

Anonymous said...

Hell its Monday night, did anybody find any beer?

Anonymous said...

The garage sales? ask at the pawn shops what is being traded in. The answer started with tools and now includes wedding rings, kitchen small appliances, silverware, penny collections, guns.

*

Bend is still in the early stages, I can think of a lot of places in the early 90's where there was a pawn-shop on every corner, where is now a starbucks.

I remember visiting a friend in Colorado Springs, CO; in the late 80's and that's all I saw.

Marge is right, when you see people hawking their wedding ring ( women ) to buy food or pay the bills, you know we're there!

Be friendly with the your neighborhood pawn shop dealer, keep your ear on wall, there's not a better bellwether.

There's a lot of skis, art, jewelery, a lot of shit folks will be cutting loose of very soon. A very good time to own a pawn shop in Bend.

Pay $500 for a $5,000 rolex, turn around and sell it on ebay for $2k, a very good racket.

Anonymous said...

We have Quality of Life, Quality Roundabouts, Dead Bicylists, Suicidal investors/developers, what more could we ask for? Oh, I know..Blue Sky, we have of ton of that in ask prices of homes for sale.

*

That's some dark shit marge,

Try to mix it up, every other post, one about what is, and the next about how to make Bend a better place.

I think folks are going to tire pretty soon of doom & gloom, its going to be in their face. Right now its still refreshing to hear 'truth', but soon folks will not need to be told their plate is empty.

Maybe a post on BiMart sales of beans? Or Walmart?

Surviving the Bend bubble?

How many realtors will there be in 2009, that are making their money 'closing' deals?

New professions for realtors, now that could be a real professional counseling gig with our 2,000 un-employed.

Anonymous said...

Can all Bends EX-Realtors become hoola-hoop teachers??

bruce said...

Angry, kick ass, NO BS

Get it done.

Anonymous said...

An angry pussy is a terrible thing to waste.

Carrying the whole world on his shoulders, and he's our only hope.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

But almost no homeowner can afford to sell. If you cannot go as low as “the foreclosure price” — the cost of a comparable bank-owned house — real estate agents say you might as well not even bother listing your home.

Ding Ding Ding Ding! The RE Market of Bend Future.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


“We didn’t know we were selling to speculators,” the builder says. “They swore they were going to live in the houses.” He says he found out otherwise only after the plunge began and people started trying to get refunds on deposits of as much as $60,000.


Builders: The Last Bastion of Decency & Truth.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

building will be complete later this year, but will sit empty?!? Corp. has too many other opportunities right now... WTF

Yeah, ODS will fit in well in Bend. 100% Bullshit driven self-serving PR, with Too Many Opportunities being the main culprit of why They Aren't Doing Expensive Stuff In Bend.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Case Schiller is out....


U.S. House-Price Slide Eases, S&P/Case-Shiller Shows

By Courtney Schlisserman


Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. house prices declined at a slower pace for the fourth straight month in June, signaling that the worst housing slump in more than 25 years may be starting to stabilize.

Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell 0.5 percent from the previous month, with nine areas reporting a gain compared with seven in May, the S&P/Case-Shiller index showed. Prices were down 15.9 percent from the previous year, less than economists had forecast.

The figures add evidence that the drag on the economy from the housing slump is lessening, while officials and analysts predict that a rebound remains at least a year away. A private report yesterday showed that sales of existing homes in the past three months averaged the same rate as the previous period.

``We're seeing a slowing in the pace of home-price depreciation,'' said Guy Lebas, chief economist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. ``The middle of next year is when we would expect to see some improvement.''

Treasuries, which had fallen earlier in the day, stayed lower after the report, pushing benchmark 10-year note yields up to 3.80 percent at 9:38 a.m. in New York, from 3.79 percent late yesterday.

Quarterly Drop

S&P/Case Shiller also released quarterly figures for nationwide home prices. That measure showed a 2.3 percent drop in the three months through June from the previous three months, compared with a 6.8 percent decline in the first quarter.

Economists forecast the 20-city index would fall 16.2 percent from a year earlier, according to the median of 26 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from declines of 17.3 percent to 15.9 percent.

Compared with a year earlier, all 20 areas showed a decrease in prices in June, led by a 29 percent drop in Las Vegas and a 28 percent decline in Miami.

``While there is no national turnaround in residential real estate prices, it is possible that we are a seeing some regions struggling to come back, which has resulted in some moderation of price declines at the national level,'' David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P, said in a statement.

Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and a professor at Yale University, and Karl Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College, created the home-price index based on research from the 1980s.

Other reports show price declines continue. The National Association of Realtors said yesterday that the median price of an existing home fell 7.1 percent in July from a year earlier, compared with a 6.1 percent drop in June.

Resales Rise

The Realtors group also said that resales increased from a 10-year low and the supply of unsold homes rose. There was a record 4.67 million unsold houses and condos on the market in July, representing 11.2 months' supply at the current sales pace, matching the highest rate ever.

The Commerce Department is scheduled to release its report on July new home sales later today. The figures will include information on prices and inventory.

The price gauges from Commerce and the Realtors group can be influenced by changes in the regional composition or types of homes sold. Purchases in areas with more expensive homes relative to cheaper properties will bias the figures up.

In contrast, the S&P/Case-Shiller index, and another by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, track the same houses over time and more accurately reflect price trends, economists said. The Ofheo figures are due at 10:00 a.m.

Bargain Hunting

Some companies are already seeing a pickup in interest because of lower prices.

``Buyers are coming back into the market,'' Tom McCormick, president of Astoria Homes, said in a Bloomberg Television interview last week. ``Remarkably low'' prices do ``seem to be bringing people in off the sidelines.''

Even so, tight credit conditions and ongoing declines in residential construction will weigh on economic growth in coming months, Federal Reserve policy makers said at their Aug. 5 meeting. The Fed's quarterly survey of bank loan officers showed 75 percent had made it tougher for prime borrowers to get a mortgage, more than in the April survey.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Added to the RIP list. Did I miss anything? I know, "A lot".

But remember; the shit is hiting the fan in such large quantities, I have to be choosy.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Hope springs eternal. Fannie & Freddie up big this morning....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Yeah, ODS will fit in well in Bend. 100% Bullshit driven self-serving PR, with Too Many Opportunities being the main culprit of why They Aren't Doing Expensive Stuff In Bend.

Bend Research, same ol, same ol.


Membranes, medicines – and more to come

33-year-old Bend Research has been working exclusively with Pfizer for the last 14 years, but it plans to extend its reach in coming years

“We’re going back really to where we started,” he said. “We’re going to work with lots of customers now.”

Instead of working solely with Pfizer on technologies developed by Bend Research’s team of scientists in its Tumalo research facility, then engineered, scaled up and tested at its two Bend-based facilities, Bend Research will use those processes for Pfizer and other companies as part of an agreement that will be completed by fall, Ray said. Alliances could include those in pharmaceuticals and agriculture, Ray said.

The company, which comprises mainly chemists, engineers and biologists, reduced its work force by 15 percent in June to prepare for the new business model, Ray said. Some employees were laid off, some retired and others left voluntarily, he said.


Wow! This sounds like a FANTASTIC NEW BUSINESS MODEL! First, begin with LAYOFFS. Second, get the PR machine up & running after 14 years of hibernation.

Bam. There's your "Business model". New Bend.

Anonymous said...

The company, which comprises ..., reduced its work force by 15 percent in June to prepare for the new business model.

*

This company is being dressed for sale, its obvious that pfizer is going to no longer feed them. They're done.

Anonymous said...

real estate agents say you might as well not even bother listing your home.

Ding Ding Ding Ding! The RE Market of Bend Future.

*

This is the model, already in PDX, realtors are now charging for listings, as they know these up front nickels is the only change they'll ever see.

The vast percentage of all listings are now retiring after 3-6 months, most realtors will no longer take a 3 month listing, and they want 6%.

Most realtors who NOW eat, are taking $500 to list, and $500/mo to maintain the list & show, ... marketing. That way the seller is burning $6k/yr, cash talks bullshit walks, all the homes that don't have a low price, and a seller with cash become dark-matter.

Ergo, dark-matter will rapidly increase, and yet remain off the 'inventory' radar, expect the stat's soon to show low inventory.

More walk-aways, more NOD's, more banks dumping homes below wholesale.

I said two years ago here to realtors, want to make money during the bust?? Then work with banks and help them unload NOD's, there is no easier and better way to make money in these recurring cycles.

Anonymous said...

33-year-old Bend Research has been working exclusively with Pfizer for the last 14 years, but it plans to extend its reach in coming years

*

Twenty years ago there were only two little crappy companys here.

APT ( advanced power ) now micro-semi, and Bend Res, which is Harry Lonsdale.

Now HOMEE you being a newbie, need to know the history, about 15 years ago Lonsdale blew his wad running for senator in Orygun. Thus he obviously has let his company run on auto-pilot ever since. Seen IRONMAN? Well Lonny has a bigger ego.

It's quite clear that the pfizer gravy is over, which means that Bend-Res must find new customers, which means sales, which means PR&MARKETING, ... This is a very old dog, and its very unlikely to learn new tricks. You got people who are here in BEND, out of mainstream R&D for 20+ years.

They'll sell, if there is anything to sell? Perhaps they own the land? That big building out by Tumalo could be worth something, in the short-term they could move the down-size remainder to the dental school.

Then there is/was APT, sold to micro-semi, Bends very own high-tech slave labor camp,

Jobs in BEND have never been a pretty picture. For ever in this town, its been two food service jobs is how each person makes it. The building boom post 2000 created a new Bend, but that money is GONE.

If the last cycle was a timber recession, this cycle will be a builder recession. In a town where 75% of GROSS came from housing, and that it now down 90%, we're looking at rather quick implosion.

Anonymous said...

I want to say something about BP's fucking postings about MERCED & SACRAMENTO. For some reason he has a hard-on for that area.

OK, Merced, like the article says, its to be bedroom community for SanJose, where a 1bed meth shack is over $500k.

People down there always commute, I know people who work in LA, and commute to Palmdale, 4 hrs each way each day, ... To work in Hollywood, to have a good paying job. Yet, to have their family live in a place with no smog. Most these people work four days a week, so you get three days off where your not driving.

Thus to commute 2-4 hrs from SanJose to Merced is nothing, to have a nice little $200k crap-shack in a white-hood.

THIS has NOT a fucking thing to do with BEND.

Bend is not commutable to anywhere. Bend is ONLY about second homes, owned by stupid calis who didn't mind driving 8hrs on the weekend.

Bend could build a ton of homes, but so what, there are no jobs within 8hr commute, PDX is impossible in the winter.

Merced makes sense, but BEND makes no sense. Were a high desert natural resource town, that has exhausted its resource.

Perhaps in ten years when cali's are feeling rich again, they'll tip toe up here, and buy second homes again. Until then Bend is FUCKED.

Anonymous said...

DON'T MENTION THE EXIT COSTS

*

Homer,

Do you think that maybe Bend is some kind of prison for retirees? or Cali's with too much disposable income?

We have always said there that Bend will rob you, and leave you broke. Bend separates people from their money.

There was a short window, perhaps 2004-2005, where a fool could flip, and make money, but other than that historically, Bend was a slot-machine that collected money, took in more than it paid out.

Folks came in a rush to buy in Bend post 2004, now its costs 10X of entry to exit.

Yes, more needs to be said, how cheap it is to ENTER BEND, but how dear it is to leave.

Bend city-hall's own DEPARTURE-TAX, almost all third world country's have this, charge $100 bucks at the airport to board your plane, to get the fuck out.

There's never a mention from anyone or anywhere about the departure tax, all you know is how exceptional the place is to visit.

Come to Bend, buy a condo, ... spend your money. Leave? It's going to cost you BIG.

Anonymous said...

Bend #1 again

http://www.ktvz.com/global/story.asp?s=8901690

Anonymous said...

"WHO WOULD HAVE GUESSED?? #1UP, #1DOWN

Return to reality? Bend home-price drop tops U.S.

Bend home prices are on their way down - no surprise to anyone buying, selling or watching from the sidelines.

Posted: Aug 26, 2008 08:30 AM
New homes are still going up in Bend, though at much slower rate, reflecting big market cooldown
New homes are still going up in Bend, though at much slower rate, reflecting big market cooldown

Meanwhile, foreclosures quadruple from '07

By Barney Lerten, KTVZ.COM

Bend home prices are on their way down - no surprise to anyone buying, selling or watching from the sidelines. But new federal data out Tuesday shows they are dropping here much faster than the national rate - some would argue because they had much farther to go from unsustainable levels.

Meanwhile, a private firm's report shows Bend foreclosure rates were four times higher in June than seen a year ago.

The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight says U.S. home prices fell 1.4 percent in the second quarter of the year and 1.7 percent from a year ago.

Bend, in 2006, hit the very top of the OFHEO's market-appreciation list, as well as another ranking that showed Bend's homes were the most over-appreciated, meaning priced beyond their true value.

That's definitely not the picture any more.

Bend ranked No. 240 out of 292 metro areas in the latest OFHEO home-price rankings, with a second-quarter home-price drop of 3.91 percent and a year-to-year plunge of 7.15 percent, though the five-year appreciation figure still shows a (smaller) gain of 66.08 percent.

Bend is not alone in its home-price tumble, to be sure. But as OFHEO Director James Lockhart noted, many - in fact, most - cities still saw a rise in year-to-year home prices.

"Tighter credit conditions and relatively high inventory levels led to some sharp price declines in the second quarter," he said. "However, the majority of metropolitan statistical areas posted positive four-quarter growth."

The full report can be viewed at http://www.ofheo.gov/newsroom.aspx?ID=452&q1=1&q2=None

Anonymous said...

The Bend is #1 is old news to all of us. Our interest, is how will the BULL report?

"BEND Now Most Affordable in Country"

"Best Time to Buy in Twenty Years"

Virtually all who bought into the Bend ENABLER CITY-HALL ponzi scheme post 2004, have now been wiped out financially for life. Thus SUICIDE #1 BEND.

Never been a better time to buy an over-priced crap-shack in a phony 'tourist town'. Never been a better time for a Grifter to sell 'mover assist' packages to flipper's and speculator's.

Never been a better time to own a UHAUL franchise in Bend, Oregon.
Now if you could just pay people to drive the trailers and vans here.

Anonymous said...

Wanted Drivers

UHAUL Needs UHAUL rigs in Bend Oregon. Twenty cents per mile all expense included one-way to Bend, Oregon.

Once your there your on your own, the exit cost is very high.

Anonymous said...

Bend's homes were the most over-appreciated, meaning priced beyond their true value.

*


70% over-valued, true value? At todays median of $260k??

That be about $80k true value, that might sell, and I expect that is what most the NOD's will soon be getting.

The BIG boyz have marked BEND to market.

Anonymous said...


Bend's mortgage delinquency rate also is way up


Meanwhile, Bend's foreclosure rate among outstanding mortgage loans reached 0.8 percent in June, four times the 0.2 percent seen in June 2007, according to First American CoreLogic, a real estate market research firm. Still, that's only half the 1.6 percent national foreclosure rate reported in June, the firm said.

Bend's mortgage delinquency rate also is way up, according to the report, with 2.2 percent of loans 90 days more delinquent in June, compared to 0.5 percent a year ago.

First American CoreLogic's data that tracks price trends for repeat home sales showed a much larger drop in Bend home prices, off more than 15 percent in June, compared to a year earlier, to a current median of $310,000. By comparison, the report says home prices nationwide are down 10.7 percent from a year ago, to a median price of $208,000.

On the sales side, Bend's single-family home sales were off almost 30 percent in June from a year ago, with 89 transactions, compared to 126 a year ago. That's only a bit better than the 35 percent drop in home sales seen nationwide, the firm reported.
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Anonymous said...

I am glad to see Bend is settling down in prices. It is a shame about the foreclosures. It is devastating process.

Bend had some of the best mortgage swindlers.

*

There you go again, #1 MTG SWINDLERS in the USA right here in BEND, OR.

Always #1 in everything.

Bend has the Best PR&MARKETING that money can buy ( Thanks boss hogg hollern ).

Bend had the easiest money that easy money could obtain.

Bend has NO SDC costs, so builders pay virtually nothing, 100% socialize expense, privatize profit. The BossHogg really didn't create a perpetual money/building machine in Bend, Oregon.

#1 Bend, move over Aspen, the cali locust are heading your way.

tim said...

>>with 2.2 percent of loans 90 days more delinquent in June

That's pretty goddamned bad.

Can't say I understand the headline of the article. It's supposed to be the largest price drop because it fell farthest on the list? What?

Never trust a reporter to make anything clear.

Anonymous said...

Tim,

The comments on KTVZ.com are really funny, somebody should invite them over to BB2.

Quimby said...

>> Media Guidelines for Suicide Reporting

Man, that whole article reads like a long winded reaction to BOC's "Don't Fear the Reaper".

I guess that's a no-no to play around here lately?

Anonymous said...

quim,

That was how the Oregonian played the story when they reported it a few weeks, that it was a teen-age problem, and not a bend-developer problem.

Copy cat suicides by teens, because bend-developers take their own life is highly unlikely, but a damn good cover for not reporting the news.

bruce said...

Re: NODs

Looks like we'll break 1100 tomorrow. Pennbrook Homes just had a couple up in Shevlin Reserve, a total of $800K to Liberty Bank. And our old friend Ed Himler made yet another appearance. That must be number 18 or so for him.

Anonymous said...

"And our old friend Ed Himler made yet another appearance."

is that baskin-robbins store owner? we need a scorecard or something

Marge said...

I didn't read any article in the Oregonian but there is a large teen suicide contingent. Most are not successful, thank God. They are not, however anything like copycat of adults. Most don't even know of an adult that has done the deed. Whoever said anything like that is talking to the wrong sources. 3 of the teen suicides that I know about were random and very depressed/unchem balanced kids. One was the son of a developer though. But it was in the good $ times.
The thing we all need to remember it that life is short and we each have only one. Hold dearly to it and help each other do the same. Life can get crazy. Let's not stir the pot of death but the one of survival. Springfield is alive and well:)

Marge said...

Realtor size dose of Prozac must have just kicked in. I just want to spread petals of flowers on everyone. Wasn't there a Monkey's song along that line..something about a flower girl and spring?

tim said...

No, that's not a Monkees song.

Anonymous said...

It's a common complaint that there's "too many Busters" on this blog and nobody can figure out whose writing except for those of us who actually pay attention.

Anyway, a poem for those who think that everyone is Buster:


"Too Many Busters"
(with apologies to Dr. Seuss)

Did I ever tell you that Mrs. McCluster
Had twenty-three sons and she named them all Buster?

Well, she did. And that wasn't a smart thing to do.
You see, when she wants one and calls out, "Yoo-Hoo!
Come into the house, Buster!" she doesn't get one.
All twenty-three Busters of hers come on the run!

This makes things quite difficult at the McClusters'
As you can imagine, with so many Busters.

And often she wishes that, when they were born,
She had named one of them Bodkin Van Horn.

And one of them Hoos-Foos. And one of them Snimm.
And one of them Hot-Shot. And one Sunny Jim.
And one of them Shadrack. And one of them Blinkey.
And one of them Stuffy. And one of them Stinkey.

Another one Putt-Putt. Another one Moon Face.
Another one Marvin O'Gravel Balloon Face.
And one of them Ziggy. And one Soggy Muff.
One Buffalo Bill. And one Biffalo Buff.

And one of them Sneepy. And one Weepy Weed.
And one Paris Garters. And one Harris Tweed.
And one of them Sir Michael Carmichael Zutt.
And one of them Oliver Boliver Butt.
And one of them Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate...

But she didn't do it. And now it's too late.

Marge said...

OK, it was the Cowsills. It was something about flowers non the less.

tim said...

Yes, and the Cowsills were the inspiration for The Partridge Family. But please, Marge, that's enough trivia for tonight.

Anonymous said...

Some idiot wrote:

It's a common complaint that there's "too many Busters" on this blog and nobody can figure out whose writing except for those of us who actually pay attention.

*

Too many Busters?

It seems that some fools think that anybody spouting of logical facts with a bit of wit in a pithy sort of nuanced prose must be a Buster, or maybe even THE Buster.

But there is only ONE Buster (he be not me). But there are at least a half dozen half-wits speaking truth to dim-wits, no-wits and idiots.

Not all who wander here are Busters, buster!

Marge said...

What, did all the boyz go smoke one at Bledsoe's Club tonight?
Tim, it's you me and anon tonight.
Thoughts?

Quimby said...

Quimby's here...hammered on sake. Was forced to endure the fucking golf channel whilst I wolfed down some raw fish out of town. Funny, I paid about 50% what it would have cost at The DEEP. What a rip. Their appetizers are their only good gig.

I LOVE YOU GUYS.....YOU'RE MY BEST PHRIENDS!! (hic)

Quimby's Bend Taxpayer Subsidized Concert Report:

Wilco: Rocked. They like to play their candy-assed songs (i.e. Fell in Love With the Drummer) for early encores and leave out the goodies like Ashes of American Flags etc. Crowd was all verbally masturbating about how great a fucking place Bend was to live. All the while, overhearing a fella in the "sponsors" tent talking about how people just don't appreciate all that he's done to his house to make it worth what he's asking. Crowd was older with a slight smell of pot in the air every once in a while.

Beck: Much more counterculture crowd. Packed like Wilco but more folks from over in the valley and out of town. Lots of pot. Beck was a wuss, played 1.5 hours and did NO encore. COVA must have purchased the "cheap" Beck package w/ no encore. Rocking concert though. The air smelled like a Dylan concert in Eugene. Tons of that shit everywhere.

$6 beers suck, I must have blown $100 over the two evenings. Sponsors tents were about empty at both gigs. Very strange concept. Usually, sponsors get front row treatment, not back row tents with wine stewards wandering around....but, this is Bend after all.

But, I digress...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Home prices plummet to 2005 levels

Economists say a real-estate recovery is at least months away, but that isn't stopping bargain hunters from snapping up property in some of the nation's most distressed markets.
By Marilyn Lewis

U.S. home prices dropped further in the second quarter -- a record 4.8% from the second quarter of 2007 -- and sent average home values back to 2005 levels, according to a government report released today.

The national numbers, however, were dragged down by foreclosure disaster zones in California, Arizona, Nevada and Florida. In 30 of the 50 states, prices have risen since last year's second quarter, if only by a little, says the report by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, or OFHEO.

For the 20 major cities tracked by the S&P/Case-Shiller home price report, prices for existing homes fell 15.8% in June from the same month last year -- the 19th straight month of declines and the biggest drop the index has recorded.

Las Vegas remained the weakest metro market, reporting a year-to-year decline of 28.6%, followed by Miami and Phoenix, down 28.3% and 27.9%, respectively. Charlotte, N.C., and Dallas recorded their fourth straight months of increases.

The OFHEO index is calculated using mortgages that are bought or backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. That excludes properties bought with some of the riskier types of home loans.
Foreclosures bring out buyers
Bargain hunters from across the globe are stoking sales in many of the cities that have the biggest backlogs of foreclosed homes.

* Talk back: What are home prices doing in your area?

Sales are "very, very hot -- almost in a frenzy," says Bill Mitchell, an agent with Marc Joseph Realty in Fort Myers, Fla., since 1991. There, about one home in 64 is in foreclosure. Mitchell says his company is unloading 10 to 15 houses and condos a week -- nearly three-quarters of them for cash. Sales are hopping in other foreclosure capitals, too, such as Sacramento and Riverside, Calif., Las Vegas and Orlando, Fla.

Biggest second-quarter price drops in OFHEO indexCity
Past quarter Past year Past 5 years
Merced, Calif.
-34.52% -15.92% 8.57%
Stockton, Calif.
-31.68% -14.3% 9.54%
Modesto, Calif.
-28.53% -12.28% 15.15%
Salinas, Calif.
-23.76% -11.92% 24.21%
Vallejo-Fairfield, Calif.
-22.98% -11.82% 17.63%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.
-22.95% -11.1% 47.23%
Naples-Marco Island, Fla.
-22.06% -8.41% 45.20%
Port St. Lucie, Fla.
-21.95% -9.78% 33.58%
Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.
-20.75% -7.22% 37.49%
Bakersfield, Calif.
-18.83% -6.35% 61.58%

In the Sun Belt cities where prices rose fastest, many prices have dropped below the cost to build, luring investors. "You can now buy some properties in some areas and rent them for a 7% to 8% return on your investment, versus putting money in Treasurys at 3%," says Sean O'Toole, the founder and CEO of ForeclosureRadar, a California analytics firm.

That was retired shop teacher Steve Eichner's strategy in July when he bought a beat-up foreclosure property -- a two-bedroom, two-bathroom home in Cape Coral, Fla. -- for $55,000. Eichner, 62, had pulled money out of stocks, unable to bear the poor returns.

As prices slid locally, "it became clear that my money would do better over the next couple of years in property," Eichner says. Prices there may still fall for a while, he says, but when they do rise, he plans to sell the house for a $15,000 profit and buy another to rehab. Meanwhile, he'll add it to his collection of 12 other rental units, which bring in about $750 a month each.

"It is in a nice area with nice shops around it," he says. "I didn't think it would be a potential loss."

Sales also are picking up in a less frenzied way in smaller cities such as Oklahoma City, Colorado Springs, Colo., and Charleston and Spartanburg, S.C., where demand for agricultural crops and other commodities are fueling local economies. The sales of existing (not new) homes rose in the second quarter in 13 states, according to the National Association of Realtors.

No end to slump in sight

The worst housing slump in more than 25 years isn't over, not by a long shot. Most analysts say the bust's bottom is at least months away. Economist Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy.com, for instance, has predicted prices will fall for nearly a year more, not rising again until early 2010.

"I'm not a believer that we are near a bottom," says Jonathan Miller, the president of Miller Samuel, a Manhattan appraisal company. "Credit is much tighter and harder to get. That keeps prices at a lower level. The law that just passed will help some people that are in pain, but that's not going to change the housing market. That's going to take years."

The optimists -- former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is one -- say prices could stop falling in the first half of 2009. Paul Bishop, the managing director of research for the National Association of Realtors, says sales must pick up much more before prices can rise.

"I don't think it's too optimistic to say we'll see some improvement by mid-2009 in terms of sales and shortly after that in terms of prices," assuming the economy suffers no new blows, Bishop says.

Though there have been some improvements, the economic indicators that fuel such predictions still aren't promising:

* The OFHEO study, which tracks the sale of existing homes and refinances, says prices dropped 1.4% between the first and second quarters of this year, led by the most overbuilt areas of California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida. But most states showed flat growth or a little increase in prices. The metro areas with the biggest depreciation were all in California: Merced (-34.5%), Stockton (-31.7%) and Modesto (-28.5%).

* Sales of new homes last quarter rose 2.4%, but economists had hoped for more. New-home sales for June were down less than a percentage point from May but down 33% from June 2007.

* A big oversupply of homes for sale still chokes many markets. It would take 11.2 months to sell all the homes that were on the market in July, well above the five to seven months of inventory that is considered ideal.

* Homebuilder confidence, as reported by the National Association of Homebuilders, still hovers at low levels.

* Foreclosures are still climbing. Notices of default, bank repossessions and auction sales jumped 8% between June and July and 55% over the year before. One U.S. household in 464 received a foreclosure notice in July, RealtyTrac reports.

Bottom-feeding in foreclosure land
The falling prices are attracting foreign investors, whose currencies go even further with the weak dollar.

About 50% to 60% of real-estate agent Mitchell's clients are from outside the U.S. -- most from Germany, the United Kingdom and Canada, he says. About one buyer in 10 snaps up two or three homes after taking a three-hour tour of Florida's Cape Coral or Fort Myers. The ForeclosureToursRUs bus is wrapped in ads that say "Watch your investment grow." (Search for other foreclosure tours on MSN Live Search.)In Cape Coral, the county court sends about 70 more foreclosed homes onto the local market each day, Mitchell says, adding to the 4,000 properties -- most of them single-family houses -- already for sale. Mitchell says he's currently closing on the $270,000 sale of a custom home that was built and mortgaged in 2005 for $900,000.

On the nation's opposite coast, real-estate "wholesalers" Kurtis and Cindy Squyres buy five or six foreclosed homes a month in Southern California desert towns, reselling most immediately for a profit of $7,000 to $25,000 each. During the boom, they flipped homes, fixing up and reselling properties. Now, they scour the foreclosure listings for extreme bargains, make lowball bids to banks and pass along the successful contracts, plus a markup, to buyers who watch sale-property videos at the Squyreses' site, FarBelowMarket.

Recently, Kurtis Squyres says, they got a bank to accept $75,000 for a boarded-up, stinking, darkened but potentially beautiful home priced at $90,000 -- about $100,000 below the market value. They found an investor to buy it for $90,000 and pocketed the $15,000 difference.

Buying began to pick up, Squyres says, earlier this year when banks finally agreed to negotiate on prices of foreclosed homes. California's June home sales were up 17.5% over a year ago. Unsold inventory dropped in July to 7.7 months from 16.8 months in January.

"I think we're bottoming out," Squyres says.
Tighter credit rules a drag
The prices are luring investors such as Kage Njaka, who buys, holds and manages about 20 commercial and residential rental properties in Southern California's Coachella Valley. He's bought throughout the downturn, but now his more conservative friends are starting to wade into the market, too. Many more want to buy but can't get financing, he says.

Njaka has purchased and rehabbed four properties this year for 35% to 45% off the market price, including a duplex he snagged from FarBelowMarket in July for $180,000. "There are a number of properties that will actually generate cash flow for you, especially multiplexes that the bank owns and will give a nice discount for," he says. The booming rental markets in towns such as Cathedral City, Rancho Mirage and Indian Wells are full of people who've lost homes to foreclosure, he says.

Another Coachella Valley investor, Darryl Izakowitz, is, along with his father, "trying to buy as much as we can right now." They pay about $150,000 on average for foreclosed tract homes, renting them out to resell when prices rise.

Lenders' timidity keeps a lid on the market, Izakowitz believes. "I have phenomenal credit -- above 800 -- and lots of cash, yet it took me three or four weeks to get a loan on the last house I just did, and I had to provide everything from my child's blood type to you name it."

"I've been waiting for this," Izakowitz adds. "These are tract homes that people got into with adjustable loans, built by KB Home, Lennar, Centex -- the major home builders. . . . If I'm holding them for five years, I'm guaranteed appreciation. I don't care if the market falls another 5% or 10%. It doesn't affect me."

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

More hard-hitting news from John Costa & Co. Get it while it's hot!

Spa ... aaah
Your guide to pampering in Central Oregon

By Anna Sowa / The Bulletin

If the number of spas in Central Oregon is any indication, High Desert men and women love their pampering. Or, at least the people visiting here do.

Right off the bat, announces that this town is run solely as a whorehouse for out-of-towners. Nice.

tim said...

Man, I wish the Bulletin would remove the comments area from its stories. It's just embarrassing and stupid to be showing Comments(0) all the time.

Anonymous said...

tim said...
Man, I wish the Bulletin would remove the comments area from its stories. It's just embarrassing and stupid to be showing Comments(0) all the time.

Then make a fucking comment, Timmy.

tim said...

>>Then make a fucking comment, Timmy.

I tried. You have to be a subscriber and enter your subscription information.

Big brother is watching.

Quimby said...

>> Your guide to pampering in Central Oregon

Fucking pathetic......

I wonder if we're starting to experience a Spa Bubble? Too many spas in Central Oregon? Seems you can't swing a dead cat without hitting one.

I imagine that it will play out like the Indian Casino racket. One on every block and each one somewhat profitable vs. wildly profitable when it was the new thing.

Anonymous said...

To me quality of life is mostly stuff that doesn't exist in Bend. Museums, plays, world-class symphony orchestras in world-class music halls. Really good used bookstores (sorry Duncan).

Take a weekend trip to PDX. No big deal no having this in your backyard. I can count the number of times I've been to any of these things on two hands and I lived in SF for 10 years. People act like this stuff matters but how often do they go even if it's available? Sometimes never.

tim said...

Been to PDX. Meh. The art museum is barely OK.

tim said...

And the curtain opens on Act II.

Heads rolling at FNM.

bruce said...

Timmy, where did you see that? Can't find anything...

BTW FNM now shortable, back to almost $6.50

bruce said...

Moody's Reviewing All 2006, 2007 Jumbo Mortgage Bonds (Update1)


Defaults among homeowners ``across the credit spectrum'' have soared as home prices slump, mortgage rates rise and lenders rein in debt offerings, Moody's said. ``Serious delinquencies'' for prime-jumbo loans in securities rose 72 percent between January and June to 1.7 percent of balances, from 1 percent, according to Moody's.

``In contrast, subprime delinquencies, though much higher, rose 25 percent over the same period, increasing from 25.2 percent to 31.5 percent,'' Peter McNally, a Moody's analyst, wrote in a related report.

bruce said...

Never mind...

hbm said...

Crowd was all verbally masturbating about how great a fucking place Bend was to live.

Yeah, I've noticed that phenomenon a lot at concerts here. If this place is really so fucking wonderful, why do we have to keep telling ourselves (and anybody else who will listen) how fucking wonderful it is all the time?

bruce said...

Bend made #87 on the best places to launch a business on CNNMoney/Forbes Small Business list.

The comments are pretty rich:

I read this list to make sure Bend didn’t show up, but sadly, it did. I lived there several years, working in startup companies, until I realized how much I hated it there. I found the people unpleasant and the city incredibly boring but self-congratulatory at the same time. The population is simply made of two groups: 1) retirees, and 2) trust-fund kids who want to go skiing and rock climbing. The city claims to have a thriving arts scene but it’s really quite awful.

That said, if you’re really in love with the outdoors, extreme isolation, and the desert climate, and you don’t care about the arts/music scene or the lack of a diverse population in terms of ethnicity and demographics, it might be perfect for you.

Good luck attracting talent, though — it’ll be hard to find younger skilled workers, because they would rather live on the other side of the Cascades (say, in Eugene).

Posted By Raoul, Bloomington, IN : April 8, 2008 10:55 pm



You have to be kidding me about Bend. Sure it has nice weather but there are no jobs here and it is quickly becoming the next sub-prime capitol. The unemployment rate is inching toward 9%. The city has enormous budget issues. The realtors have tremendous influence over the local newspaper so any articles that have negative information related to the housing bust are eliminated. A writer for the Bulletin was fired for not keeping the happy BS real estate stories alive and well. Go to Oregon Public Radio’s website for more information. Skip it and go to Boulder!

Posted By judy, Bend, OR : March 30, 2008 9:34 pm



Bend? You the Bend where unemployment is near 8.2%? Where home prices have dropped and there are foreclosures on every block? read: crime attractants)

Is this the same city of Bend which is 20 MILLION dollars short in the budget?

Um, yeah… let’s just say that the tax incentives aren’t going to be around for long, as the city council does quite a few “behind closed doors” deals that have bled us dry.

Stop drinking the “Bend is great” koolaid and start reading one of the local blogs who are NOT pimped out to realtors.

http://bendbubble2.blogspot.com/index.html
http://bendoregonbubble.blogspot.com/
http://bendbubble.blogspot.com/index.html

If the links disappear, just google Bend Bubble and blog. You’ll see them.

Posted By Bend Gurl, Bend, Oregon : March 29, 2008 7:08 pm



And I saved the best for last:

WE LOVE BEND!!!

We bought land there in Feb, 2008 and we are moving. We are soooo tired of California, the crowds, graffiti…..

Bend is clean, uncrowded (compared to California) and everyone is pleasant! And Bend has sunshine!

Housing is still affordable and all the best shops, restaurants and services are there.

Posted By P&D, Huntington Beach, CA : April 7, 2008 11:18 am

bruce said...

Oh, I missed this one:

Why did you have to put Bend, Oregon on the list? We really don’t want anyone else to move here…

Bend just about has it all — fishing, skiing, biking, golfing, kayaking… We love being able to walk five minutes to the Deschutes River and fly-fish. 300+ days of sunshine are wonderful each year.

Winter gets tough for 2-3 months each year, but there’s XC skiing just ten minutes from our front door and Mt. Bachelor is twenty minutes away for downhill skiing/boarding.

Posted By EJ, Bend, Oregon : March 26, 2008 12:18 pm

bruce said...

HBM, sent Eric an email, have heard nothing.

Anonymous said...

http://bendbubble2.blogspot.com/index.html
http://bendoregonbubble.blogspot.com/
http://bendbubble.blogspot.com/index.html


*

please don't forget

bendbubble3.blogspot.com

9 out of 10 nazi's agree that Bend has the best nazi-days in the usa.

Quimby said...

(crickets chirping)

Duncan McGeary said...

(tumbleweed rolling)

tim said...

http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/housing-mistakes-embarrass-the-rich/2008/08/28/

We talked about this two whole years ago. The drop is not really in full swing until people discuss anecdotes about embarrassing losses.

The cycle will not be over until Real Estate is hated.

We're not there yet. Too much talk about bounces.

Anonymous said...

I do love Bend. I realizes that makes me a pariah on this blog where saying you love the town is like admitting you intentionally spread the AIDS virus. I still don't understand, if you don't love it, why don't you leave it. Like you keep saying, there are so many better places with more opportunity so why stay in a place you don't like?

Quimby said...

>> I do love Bend. I realizes that makes me a pariah on this blog where saying you love the town is like admitting you intentionally spread the AIDS virus. I still don't understand, if you don't love it, why don't you leave it. Like you keep saying, there are so many better places with more opportunity so why stay in a place you don't like?


Sweetie, don't you realize the more you "promote" the area, the more motherfucking Cali's will move here and destroy the place? Admitting that you like it is a cardinal sin.

BEND IS A SHIT HOLE!!!!!

bruce said...

Re:...why don't you leave it.

Never said I didn't like Bend. Just that I don't like the way some things are run, nor the way unbridled growth was promoted like the second coming.

hbm said...

I found the people unpleasant and the city incredibly boring but self-congratulatory at the same time.

LOL! I wouldn't agree that the people are unpleasant (well, not most of them) but he's right-on about the "self-congratulatory" part. I have NEVER, EVER seen a place where people love to pat themselves on the back and tell themselves how wonderful they and their town are as much as they do in Bend. As far as that goes, the whole state of Oregon is pretty much the same. This is unhealthy because it prevents Bendites and Oregonians from accurately perceiving problems and dealing with them. Instead we choose to live in a bubble of delusion where our climate is uniquely wonderful, our scenery is uniquely beautiful, our recreation is uniquely marvelous, our "lifestyle" is uniquely healthy and admirable, our education system is the envy of the world, and blah-de-blah-de-blah-blah-blah ad nauseam.

bruce said...

With 18 more NODs filed yesterday, we continue to break more ground-the 1100 level is now history.

hbm said...

300+ days of sunshine are wonderful each year.

Winter gets tough for 2-3 months each year, but there’s XC skiing just ten minutes from our front door and Mt. Bachelor is twenty minutes away for downhill skiing/boarding.

Posted By EJ, Bend, Oregon : March 26, 2008 12:18 pm


I've checked this out. "EJ" is a realtor who lives in Palm Springs. I'd lay 1,000-to-1 he's trying to sell property in Bend.

bruce said...

So I went and watched the ODOT presentation to the OTC about what they want to do with 97. And what caught me completely by surprise was that the OTC (which controls ODOT) does not want any connection of Cooley Rd. to 97. Nada. Zero.

From their OTC Guidance - March 2007:

IV. Cooley Road - Preference is to include an overpass at Cooley Road and US 97, with no direct access to US 97.

So I emailed the OTC, and recieved a reply from ODOT Bob, of all people. Here it is:

Bruce - I was asked to respond to your request. I've attached the slide from the presentation last week that references guidance that we received from the Transportation Commission during a presentation in February 2007. We have developed the alternatives for the US 97: North Corridor project consistent with this guidance, and we did not hear anything from the discussion last week that would cause us to change direction.

In fact, the traffic analysis accomplished as part of the project bears out the merits of the guidance at least as it pertains to the connection at Cooley Road. Any direct connection from US 97 at Cooley Road that would serve future development in Juniper Ridge causes the Parkway through Bend to fail. The traffic model shows that trips from throughout the community would use the Parkway as opposed to alternative local routes if their destination is Juniper Ridge. This additional local traffic volume would exceed the capacity.


So this entire idea that ODOT is going to allow an intersection at Cooley/97 and allow Juniper Ridge land sales in the near future is completely and utterly unfounded.

And yet our city staff and city council continue to push for this. It's the one thing that can save the budget.

WTF.

Anonymous said...

So this entire idea that ODOT is going to allow an intersection at Cooley/97 and allow Juniper Ridge land sales in the near future is completely and utterly unfounded.

*

Stupid fucking PUSSY, have we not told you JR is dead???? The whole deal is too sell worthless fucking land to IDIOTS, and then have them BELIEVE that someday their will be a FWY on-ramp to their door.

We PUSSY all of JR is smoke & mirrors.

Money talks and bullshit walks. The city of BEND is BK, and thus will get no respect from ODOT or any other state agency.

PUSSY, ay sir BP, you want laugh go to County and talk about the City of Bend. They also think Bend will BK, yet county is doing fine! They planned years ago for the down-sizing.

Anonymous said...

bendbubble3.blogspot.com

9 out of 10 nazi's agree that Bend has the best nazi-days in the usa.

*

Hell yes up in Sand Point, Idaho they come every year to Bend Nazi Days. Where every hair-lip is king!

Every village idiot is rich. Only in Bend.

I remember one year during our annual 'Running of the Jew', the Southern Poverty Justice Center came up to investigate. Turns out new actual Jews were harmed! Indians from the local Warm Springs reservation had been hired to dress like Jews.

Sort of like in the 1930's when Jews were hired to dress up like Indians for cowboy westerns.

Bend has always been a white paradise.

bruce said...

Hey, sorry for making stupid fucking shit even more obvious...

You may know that JR is dead, but my goal is to prevent the city from pumping millions more into the carcass.

tim said...

>>I have NEVER, EVER seen a place where people love to pat themselves on the back and tell themselves how wonderful they and their town are

Seattle, 15 years ago.

bruce said...

Now here's an RE guy who is probably still making money:

http://www.bobwienk.com/Nav.aspx/Page=/PageManager/Default.aspx/PageID=2017792

Familiar name, Marge?

hbm said...

I have NEVER, EVER seen a place where people love to pat themselves on the back and tell themselves how wonderful they and their town are

Seattle, 15 years ago.


Could be; I wasn't there.

But Seattle has a lot more going for it than Portland, IMO. When I'm in Seattle I feel like I'm in an honest-to-god city. Portland just feels like ... well, I don't know. A collection of small suburban towns, maybe.

bruce said...

http://juniper-ridge-info.blogspot.com/2008/08/city-strategy-at-odds-with-odot-plans.html

Emailed link and questions to CC plus Eric, Garz, and JMitch. No response yet.

Anonymous said...

my analogy of you people is you really need to get a life? greatgrandad homesteaded in walla walla in 1887 your nazi interpertations I find very offensive because I am of german desent If I go to milton-freewater I can guantee you within 2 hrs i will find someone I know! Marge. I know a real good machinist that shot the hold mini oly cans into the side of grandads hill He filled them with concrete.he was a ww2 vet you people need to get a grip.

LavaBear said...

my analogy of you people is you really need to get a life? greatgrandad homesteaded in walla walla in 1887 your nazi interpertations I find very offensive because I am of german desent If I go to milton-freewater I can guantee you within 2 hrs i will find someone I know! Marge. I know a real good machinist that shot the hold mini oly cans into the side of grandads hill He filled them with concrete.he was a ww2 vet you people need to get a grip.

***
It's a little early to get your drink on but what the hell. Since the Olympics ended I've felt the same way. Good on ya man. I'll tip a few to you.

tim said...

>>my analogy of you people is you really need to get a life?

That's not an analogy. That's your opinion of us, or perhaps your prescription for us.

>>greatgrandad homesteaded in walla walla in 1887 your nazi interpertations I find very offensive because I am of german desent If I go to milton-freewater I can guantee you within 2 hrs i will find someone I know! Marge. I know a real good machinist that shot the hold mini oly cans into the side of grandads hill He filled them with concrete.he was a ww2 vet you people need to get a grip.

I am also of German descent. German-American is a huge ethnic group, though very quiet since the World Wars.

Not sure what your point is, but if you stop by I'll make you some Sauerkraut.

As for those who say, if you hate Bend so much, leave it...

I think those people are trying to leave it, but are trapped. They'll leave as soon as they can.

Many of us like Bend fine (without loving it), but think the local gov't is a joke and that a lot of people here are people who came only for the money that was happening.

I like Bend, but I like lots of places. Best thing about Bend, in my opinion, is that it has Buster. He's (face it, Buster-haters) outrageously entertaining.

Any place that can produce a Buster can't be too bad.

Quimby said...

>> I like Bend, but I like lots of places. Best thing about Bend, in my opinion, is that it has Buster. He's (face it, Buster-haters) outrageously entertaining.

Hell yeah Timmy. He and Homee are the reason I check so often. I find myself giggling uncontrollably sometimes at his rants. Much respect for you BTW too Timmy. And Bruce to add some color and Marge, Lava, and Hank.....

We should put together a bail fund to get Buster sprung after last night bender. Starting to miss him/her/it.

LavaBear said...

ok, since that last post I went out and got the drink on. My greatgranddad homesteaded grass pants. Wasn't till my dad migrated to central oregon that I got desert in me. Love the sage brush and junipers that Tim finds ugly. I agree they is but thats why I love them so. Shooting Oly's? You a fag. We only did Rainer pounders. Gotta go figure out how to turn my tv from analogy to digital.

Marge said...

bruce said...
Now here's an RE guy who is probably still making money:

http://www.bobwienk.com


NOT. ! 1 sale last Sept. and a cheapie. Trying to market himself to stand out in this market. He's a nice guy trying to make a living.
Nough said.

Marge said...

I am of german desent If I go to milton-freewater I can guantee you within 2 hrs i will find someone I know! Marge. I know a real good machinist that shot the hold mini oly cans into the side of grandads hill He filled them with concrete.he was a ww2 vet you people need to get a grip.

Whoa, what do I have to do with it, other than I am of German/Hungarian (Gypsy) descent also. So now what dude?

Anonymous said...

No you stand corrected,anolgy or not it does not matter what your opinion of what is absolute. I made an assesment of this blog Of what I see and have the right to an opinion of what I think it is.And my opinion is not an absolute. Did not say I hate bend but I love it, don't manipulate out of thin air. I have lived in oregon for 50 years am the grandson of a homesteader of 1887 have the road and bridge named after my forefathers in this area.

Marge said...

LABABEAR SAID Love the sage brush and junipers that Tim finds ugly.
Tim you really need to see these trees in the sunset, each are so unique and each play home to different critters. What really amazes me (maybe Lava too) is that, if growing near tall pine trees, they grow into the same tall shape. Down in the Crooked River area below the dam, there are many trees that look like pines and are those nasty Junipers.:)

Anonymous said...

bruce said...

Hey, sorry for making stupid fucking shit even more obvious...

You may know that JR is dead, but my goal is to prevent the city from pumping millions more into the carcass.

*

Angry pussy, is always the best pussy. So finally the pussy admits that his shit is obvious!

Hell we're making progress!

Marge said...

Anonymous said...
No you stand corrected,anolgy or not it does not matter what your opinion of what is absolute. I made an assesment of this blog Of what I see and have the right to an opinion of what I think it is.And my opinion is not an absolute. Did not say I hate bend but I love it, don't manipulate out of thin air. I have lived in oregon for 50 years am the grandson of a homesteader of 1887 have the road and bridge named after my forefathers in this area.

Please explain, so that we may understand. What is the brigde name? We really maybe able to connect here with the true Oregonian. I am waiting to hear the story. I know of others that are in the John Day area that have the same forefather timeline.

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