Sunday, August 24, 2008

The Cult of Bend Claims Another Victim

An interesting week, we saw what is The Beginning Of End of the private financing of home mortgages.
Fannie Mae, 24 year chart

Freddie Mac, Lifetime chart

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac both began a collapse similar to the Bear Stearns debacle, although far grander in scale. There again will be a familiar sucking sound from the South, that is if you live directly North of D.C.

Look closely at these charts; there should be some instructive lessons to be learned about these two hugely leveraged levithans.

First, almost ALL bubbles have some sort of leverage available to the participants, and the Ultimate Fatalities will be those that lent to the masses. Why? Because when you lend to speculators (de rigueur in Bubble Times), and the loan is secured against the Bubble Goods, YOU are on the hook for any large scale losses, while the speculator WISELY plays the equity side, a call option without any real prospect of loss.

Second, leveraged institutions ALMOST ALWAYS are pulled into the maelstrom of what appears to be sound, prudent lines of business. Remember Lending To Brazil? Sure, sounds good, all they have to do is print whatever the hell sort of loser ass currency they have down there to pay us Wall St bigwigs off, right? Uh huh. That one didn't go well.

Finally, there will always exist the extremely remote chance of some sort of catastrophe completely destroying a otherwise prudent loan portfolio. It just happens. Small mid-west banks learned this during the floods of 1993. It just goes beyond their thinking that there will be a 1,000 Year Event during their lifetime.

It is the nature of banks to go broke. It is in their genome to go bust.

It's probably hard to remember now, but a year ago the idea of Freddie or Fannie going broke was so patently ridiculous, it was hardly even discussed in polite company. I remember I thought the sky was falling, but when Jimmy Rogers brought up the collapse of Fannie & Freddie, I thought he'd pretty much gone off his nut.

But look: Both institutions have wiped out a lifetime of gains, and will be summarily shot when the US Government takes over & begins operations under New Management.


The US Government is possibly the Worst Investor of All Time.

FNM & FRE securitized over half the mortgages in this country. What happens now that they are gone & Uncle Sam is now in the house? I honestly don't know, but I have a bad feeling that their track record speaks ill of what will befall all of us.

The End of An Era.

Moving on, I noted in the comments that Buena Vista homes' (built Forum Meadows STD clap trap crap shacks) is going into foreclosure.

Now, for the Noobs here, you should be aware that Wayyyyy back in mid December of last year, Roger Pollock, the anal dildo with arms that runs Buena Vista homes held a mass auction in Portland.

141 homes sell for a total of $65 million at real estate auction

OK, there is one particularly interesting quote in here that any mentally cognizant Bendite would readily understand (approx 2% of Bendites):

Westside homes in Beaverton and Hillsboro sold best, Pollock said. None of the 29 Bend homes sold, and homes that are now rented didn't sell well, either.

Pollock sold his ramshackle shit-shacks ALL OVER OREGON... except for Bend.

No. In Bend he didn't sell a single home. He actually accused those who bid on his Bend properties of trying to STEAL them. This is a clearly deluded idiot.

Or is he? See, he sold ALL the rest of the sugar shacks he was trying to sell, except Bend. It's like he is of Sound Mind and Body when he is NOT dealing with Bend, but once he is in "Bend Mode", he is out of his fucking mind. He goes totally schizo when it comes to Bend.


Bend is run like any self-respecting hedonist Meth Den: There is The Fucking Man, The Grandmaster Pimp, The Fucking Boss Hogg, and in this town it is The Builder, or is pimped out grandpappy, The Developer.

And then there is the loose-stool fucking skanks that are drawn into the Grandmaster Pimps Meth-Den. That's us.

We are pulled in with promises of perfect powder 24/7, even in July, good wine & ass fucking your best friends trophy wife above Volo, hummers in your Hummer by your Taiwanese pool boy, and finally meth shot into your scrotum by the finest illegal aliens Madras has to offer.

And life is good for awhile. It's a hedonists dream come true.

But after a few months, Grandpappy asks you to swallow a bucket of cum from some mules that were just jerked of by Drew Bledsoe, and some other unseemly shit involving popsickles & your ass, and you're not thinking that you're living the Good Life like you once were.

The Costs To Entry seemed low. The rewards seemed high. And they were. Shortly.

But now comes the Exit Costs. And they're higher than you thought. In fact, they are barriers in your mind, because you can't, nay you WILL NOT, give up the other aspect of The Good Life, no matter what has to be sacrificed, no matter the cum buckets.

This is us. This is you, this is me. This is Roger Pollock. This is Jay Audia.

We are caught in the Bend Meth Den. Even when we want to really leave, we can't leave. This place has gripped us in some sort of catatonic fit that won't let us accept ANY reasonable offer.

What is happening to Roger Pollock & his cracker shacker butt smackers, is going to happen to this town, and all of us, on a larger cost & temporal scope. It took about 8 months for The Bend Meth Den, The Kool Aid, The Cult of Bend to take down Buena Vista Homes.

We are in for the same fate.

Look around. No one will lower their price. Many CANNOT lower their price, but there are a large number that can (Pollock), but they simply REFUSE.

Again, look at Pollock: A businessman, in this racket for the money, fairly geographically diverse. He holds an auction, and sells EVERYTHING HE'S GOT. Except for Bend, where he simply REFUSES TO ACCEPT REALITY. Why?

Why does this happen to people here? Why is this less a town, than a Meth Den where the Zombie Fucking Inhabitants seem to be robbed of all self-awareness & are completely oblivious to the catastrophe around them? Why?

The answer is of course, Bend Media. Bend Media, is systematically & purposefully creating this Cult in a futile hope to ever expand the First, Last & Greatest Industry Bend has Ever Had: GROWTH.

We aren't about actually DOING anything sustainable here. We are about getting the next mark. We grift marks. That is what this town does. We use up who is here in our Meth Den of Hedonism. Rob them of choice. Pump them full of Kool-Aid, and hand them buckets of chum.

But unfortunately for Boss Hogg, the jig is up. THEY have run out of METH to shoot into our scrotes, and we are starting to wake up. Roger Pollock woke up. And he will lose Buena Vista.

Well, who gives a shit? Big deal. Because what has happened to Pollock will happen to us all. If you think Bend is special and you are special and your house is special, you are about to get a rude wake up call, because you have been medicated by propoganda for too long, and you're about to see that Grandpappy Meth has used you up.

This is what you thought you was

This is what you really is.
"Holy Fuck, I White, Ass Ugly & I'm in a Bend Meth Den!"
Welcome to The Lollypop Guild, Motherfucker.

Bend Media CONTINUES to play Grandpappy Pimp to the populous, and the Bend City Council is ALL TOO HAPPY to suck their cocks as well.

But Pollocks Wake Up Call is coming to all of us. It will be exactly the same, simply larger in absolute financial & time scale. This place is going broke.

And NEVER FORGET what the true root cause is: It is NOT the housing boom or bust. That happened everywhere, and most of the country will survive. It is the media here, trying to hypnotize every single person into thinking their titties were 36DDDDD's, they looked like Angelina Jolie, they were swallowing Brad Pitts cum buckets, not old man mule jerk-off cum buckets.

They are trying to convince you YOU ARE SPECIAL for their NEEDS, NOT YOURS. Growth is ALL THEY HAVE. Just like CRACK DEALERS. Bend Media does not GIVE ONE THIN FUCK about you once you are here, only getting New Meat.

Why do you think they PUSHED through the SDC deferral plan? If they actually THOUGHT about anything for 2 fucking seconds, they would realize that giving the money to PROSPECTIVE BUYERS, while still LUDICRIOUS, makes 1.76 quadrillion times more sense than giving the builders a deferral.

But no. Once you are here, who gives a fuck. Keep entry costs low, keep rewards high... but DO NOT mention the motherfucking exit costs. And believe me, those costs will become highly important to you once you've swallowed your 14th cum bucket on the Volo Terraces.

Bend, like Buena Vista Homes, is going to go 100% BANKRUPT. And just lke any decent meth den, the Pimps get fucking rich & leave town, leaving behind used up meth-huffers who can't even tie their fucking shoes.

And it's all The Kool-Aid, it's all Bend Media. You think it's not 100% dead fucking real? Do you think it doesn't affect 100% of the local populous? Read this:

No bids on Forest Service land

Tuesday, August 19, 2008

The clock ticked past 3 p.m. on Friday, August 15, and there was no sound of a gavel coming down.

The approximately 62-acre parcel of land (50 acres net) the U.S. Forest Service put on the block in Sisters with a minimum bid of $14 million failed to attract any bids during an auction that closed last Friday.

"It's a big disappointment," said Sisters District Ranger Bill Anthony, "and it's going to create some challenges for us."

The no-bid means the Forest Service cannot move forward with plans for a new Sisters headquarters. Perhaps more distressing to the agency is the fact that proceeds won't be available to put into new facilities for the Bend-Fort Rock District, where lease costs are running the agency about $1 million per year.

"We were dependent on the receipts from that sale to fund construction of those projects," Anthony said.

The parcel, which lies along Pine Street in Sisters, was the focus of intense public interest as the possibility emerged that it could be sold to a private developer. Citizens were active in describing amenities they would like to see on the land, from more affordable housing to a public swimming pool.

The City of Sisters summarized community input as a kind of guideline for prospective developers as to how the city would likely want to see the property developed.

According to Anthony, there will be considerable discussion of options at the regional and probably at the national level. It is possible that the property could be put out for bid again in a better economic climate, but that's entirely speculative at this point, Anthony indicated.

For now, what is certain is that the Sisters Ranger District will not be moving and that large parcel of land will not be redeveloped any time soon.

"Fortunately, we have a home in Sisters," Anthony said. "It's a great location. It's not the kind of facility we need for the long term, but we can stay there for a while."

Look at that. The STUPID FUCKING FOREST SERVICE has inadvertently gotten PIMPED OUT. Yup, they think they got 36DDDDD's, when they just an asshole to 16 black fuckers.

The stupid fucking Forest Service, LIKE EVERY SINGLE MOTHERFUCKER EVER COME TO BEND, think they shit don't stink, and their real estate is worth more than The Ginza. Dumbfucks need to make way, cuz here come the cum bucket.


More people leaving Sisters area

By Bill Mintiens

Economic hard times are sending some local residents packing.

Sisters Rental, which also operates the local U-Haul distributorship, has tracked a trend in their U-Haul customers this summer:

"Although our U-Haul business is pretty close to what it was last year, we're seeing more people this year leaving the area than arriving," said Gilbert Porraz.

Porraz noted that it seems to be certain types of people moving on.

"I'm seeing people who've lived here for 5-7 years now moving on, mainly headed south, and most say it was just too hard to try to make a living in Sisters," added Porraz.

But he's also seen a number of "newcomers" leave the area, particularly following a hard winter and lack of employment.

"I know of several people, who arrived here all excited about a year ago, who had to move on for the same reasons. Mainly, no jobs," said Porraz.

Nancy Lynch at United Van Lines in Bend has been writing a number of quotations recently for Sisters families.

"We're definitely seeing more people leaving Sisters than moving in, several have said they have to go where the work is," said Lynch.

Lynch notes that this trend is not confined to Sisters.

"I can tell you that, in Bend, there are a lot of people wanting to leave - but can't until their homes sell," she said.

A July 25 "homes for sale" report showed 239 Sisters-area homes on the market.

"The cost of living in Central Oregon versus the pay in this area makes it very tough for people," said Lynch.

Jason Taroli with Prestige Moving & Storage in Bend, the local Allied Van Lines agent, is seeing the same trends across Central Oregon.

"There are definitely more people leaving than coming right now. We see this more in Bend, of course, due to Bend's population but it's happening everywhere," said Taroli.

Wow. Imagine that. Fucking houses in Sisters cost about 6 trillion times more than anyone makes there. And people are leaving. Is that true? They leaving?

Yeah. They are leaving Sisters in droves. Of course, once the fucking cracker wears off & Whitey wakes up in Bend, they will leave here in droves as well AND there will be an article. Of course people are already leaving as FAST AS THEY CAN.

Notice how YOU HAVEN'T READ ABOUT moving van survey's of arrivals vs departures in the Bulletin recently. Why? Right, the motherfucking departure department is PACKED. And arrivals is ZERO.

No, what we read about is the VAST BUILDING OF SUCCESSFUL PROJECTS:

Tall hotel may be in Sisters' future

By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin
Published: August 22. 2008 4:00AM PST

An upscale hotel rising as much as 50 feet could be on the horizon for Sisters’ Western-themed downtown.

Under plans submitted to the city in April, the 98-room, three-story Sisters Village Hotel at the west end of Sisters would give the city its tallest building and would be evaluated based on Deschutes County planning guidelines, according to Eric Porter, the city’s community development director.

That’s due to an agreement made in 1998 between Pine Meadow Village LLC, the city of Sisters and the county that gave owners of the property 10 years to submit an application and fall under the county’s less-restrictive code for the Sisters area.

Representatives of the project’s developer, Celia Hung, of Bend, turned in the hotel project application April 4, a day before the 10-year agreement expired, Porter said.

Right, right, right. The old 50 ft tall Sisters Hotel is what YOU ARE READING ABOUT.

Real estate is STILL GOOD. ALL IS WELL. Here is that bucket of cum.

OK, here comes a Mark My Words Moment:

This Celia Hung-To-The Floor has about a snowballs chance in HELL of ever building this monstrosity. NEVER HAPPEN.

You want to see the Full Scale of the horror that is our local media, you can easily see it here:

The phased approach would make sense in a tourism economy that is expected to experience a significant slowdown in the next 12 to 18 months, said Alana Audette, the president and CEO of Central Oregon Visitors Association, which markets tourism for the region.

“Early indicators are that people are going to be very cautious and price sensitive,” Audette said. “It is a difficult time to launch new products.”

Even the usually ebulient Audette thinks there are 200 different ways this thing SHOULD GET BUILT (remember, GROWTH is our ONLY INDUSTRY). Alana Audette is about the most ill-qualified dumbfuck the World has EVER KNOWN, but the Bulletin SOUGHT HER LYING ASS OUT for this "story".

Standard Procedure in a Meth Den. Grandmaster Pimp tell me I pretty. I best swaller that cum. Fucking unbelievable.

Mark these Words: You wanna know how it'll go down here in a microcosm? You look to Pollock & Buena Vista Homes. Everything is Bend WAY TOO GOOD to be sold at market.


So let it be written, so let it be done. Stupid Motherfuckers.

OK, on to what I think is the DOMINANT THEME for this country & it's economy: STAGFLATION.

U.S. Economy: Housing, Prices Raise Stagflation Risk

By Shobhana Chandra and Timothy R. Homan
More Photos/Details

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. builders broke ground on the fewest new homes in 17 years and producer prices climbed the most since 1981, providing no sign of an economic recovery or easing inflation.

Housing starts fell 11 percent in July to an annual rate of 965,000, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The Labor Department reported the producer price index jumped 9.8 percent from a year before.

``There's no doubt we're in a period of stagflation now,'' said Peter Kretzmer, a senior economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York who formerly worked at both the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Fed Board in Washington.

Stock indexes posted their biggest two-day loss since June. The Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index dropped 0.9 percent to close at 1,266.69, with the S&P Supercomposite Homebuilding Index down 3.5 percent. Treasuries were little changed, with 10-year notes yielding 3.83 percent.

``We are still in a fairly risky situation'' on the inflation front, Fed Bank of Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. He said that higher interest rates may be needed to curtail prices even before growth and financial markets return to normal.

Compared with July 2007, work began on 30 percent fewer homes. Building permits, a sign of future construction, also fell in July, the Commerce Department reported. They were down 18 percent to a 937,000 annual pace.

Starts were projected to fall to a 960,000 annual pace, according to the median forecast of 77 economists polled by Bloomberg News. The median estimate for permits was 970,000.

`Pull Back'

``A recovery will not happen this year,'' said Russell Price, a senior economist at H&R Block Financial Advisors Inc. in Detroit. ``Not only are mortgage rates creeping up, but financing is becoming more difficult for a lot of people. Builders will continue to pull back.''

The 1.2 percent increase in producer prices from the previous month followed a 1.8 percent increase in June, the Labor Department said. So-called core prices that exclude fuel and food rose 0.7 percent after a 0.2 percent gain in June.

Prices paid to factories, farmers and other producers were forecast to rise 0.6 percent, according to the median of 77 forecasts. The core index was projected to advance 0.2 percent.

Fed's Fisher

``The recent burst of cost-push inflation is giving the beast digestion problems that might manifest themselves in the form of a lingering inflationary fever,'' Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said in a speech in Aspen, Colorado, today.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told U.S. lawmakers last month that officials ``continue to expect inflation to moderate in 2009 and 2010, as slower global growth leads to a cooling of commodity markets,'' while viewing the outlook ``as unusually uncertain.''

The jump in the producer price index reflected a surge in commodity costs that has since waned. At the same time, the acceleration in costs excluding food and fuel raises concern about a pass-through to consumer prices.

Producer prices are one of three monthly inflation gauges reported by the Labor Department. Import prices rose 1.7 percent in July and consumer prices increased 0.8 percent for the same period, the Labor Department said last week. Both figures were higher than estimated.

Construction of single-family homes fell 2.9 percent to a 641,000 rate, the fewest since January 1991, today's report showed. Work on multifamily homes, such as townhouses and apartment buildings, dropped 24 percent from the prior month to an annual rate of 324,000.

`Bad' News

``The news ahead for housing remains bad,'' Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview. ``There's a corrective process we have to get through here.''

The decrease in starts was led by a 30 percent decline in the Northeast. Construction fell 8.2 percent in both the South and West. Starts in the West slumped to a 26-year low. The Midwest showed a 10 percent gain.

The magnitude of the July drop in the Northeast reflected, in part, a payback from an unexpected surge the prior month. Starts and permits jumped in June as builders hurried to break ground ahead of new regulations in New York City's building code that took effect July 1.

Underneath the gyrations, demand is weakening. Sales of existing homes fell to a 10-year low in the second quarter, according to the National Association of Realtors. A third of all sales were foreclosures or ``short sales,'' in which lenders take a loss on a property.

Financing is also becoming tougher, a quarterly survey of banks by the Federal Reserve showed. Compared with the April survey, more of the loan officers polled reported they tightened standards on prime mortgage loans and on non-traditional loans.

Toll on Retailers

The slumping U.S. economy is taking its toll on retailers from luxury chain Saks Inc. to discounter Target Corp., reports showed today. Saks reported its largest quarterly loss in two years, while profit dropped for a fourth straight quarter at Target. Home Depot Inc., the biggest home improvement chain, posted its seventh sales decline in eight quarters.

Falling retailer earnings may signal that the U.S. economy will deteriorate further as consumers rein in spending to cope with rising unemployment and inflation. Home Depot Chief Executive Officer Frank Blake told analysts today he was ``cautious'' about consumer spending through mid-2009.

The five largest U.S. homebuilders reported a combined $1.08 billion in losses in their most recent quarters.

Builders are pessimistic as losses mount. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo's sentiment index yesterday showed optimism held at a record low in August for a second month.

I've said this for many moons that the final upshot of printing TRILLIONS to "bail out" the housing mess would be STAGFLATION. Growth is coming to a halt anyway, but our government in its infinite wisdom, has decided to liquify (think throw-in-blender) the US economy.

And another theme that I think will become even more important is The Marginalizing of The United States on the World platform. We will still be important. But we'll be like Great Britain. Flash in the Pan fuck-ups who royally screwed themselves.

What's the next shoe to drop? Credit Cards:

The next credit crunch
Our easy access to plastic is about to dry up - and with it our ability to fake living the good life.
By Geoff Colvin, senior editor at large
Last Updated: August 20, 2008: 1:15 PM EDT

(Fortune Magazine) -- We made it through the bursting of the Internet bubble and now the bursting of the real estate bubble. Next we may be approaching the end of the most worrisome bubble of all: the standard-of-living bubble.

That conclusion comes from the latest data on credit card debt. It's growing fast, but the problem is bigger than that - and to understand what it means, we have to take a few steps back.

For the past several years, the average inflation-adjusted total pay of American workers hasn't been increasing. That means we haven't been building a foundation for increases in our living standard. You might be tempted to say that by definition our living standard couldn't have increased, but that's not quite right. Even with stagnant real incomes, we can always live a little better every year through borrowing and pretending that our living standard is still rising, just as it was for decades.

So the Great Bull Market made us feel rich, and we felt justified in saving less and borrowing - and spending - more.

After stocks collapsed, home prices took off, making us feel rich all over again. So we continued saving less and spending more, creating the illusion that our living standard was still rising. In 2005 our personal savings rate went negative, but even that didn't slow us down, because our homes were still appreciating - and rising home values meant that household net worths weren't declining. (Don't be fooled by that saving-rate spike in this year's second quarter; it was probably a one-time event resulting from the federal stimulus payments.)

Of course, we don't hear those assurances anymore. Stocks are back where they were eight years ago, and home prices are where they were five years ago. But personal debt is much higher than ever before, and average pay is still going nowhere in real terms. So now how do we live as if our living standard is still rising?
End of easy money

That's where the credit card reports come in. Last year, just as the subprime crisis happened, credit card debt took off. The home-equity ATM had been shut down, so people turned to the last source of easy money they had left, the most expensive debt on the menu, credit card borrowing.

Since credit card debt has been growing much faster than the economy - more than 8% in last year's third and fourth quarters and over 7% in May (the most recent month reported)- people are apparently using it as a substitute for income. Thus, for the past year or so we have still maintained the standard-of-living illusion.

But a big crunch is coming - and here's why. Credit card debt, like mortgage debt, gets bundled, securitized, and sold off by banks. Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), one of America's largest credit card lenders, just reported that it lost $176 million in the second quarter through securitizing such debt. That happens when the buyers of those securities observe rising delinquency rates and rising interest rates, and decide the debt is worth less than Citi thought. More generally, the amount of credit card debt that is securitized nationwide has plunged by more than half in the past five months because it's getting riskier. That means credit card issuers will be charging customers higher interest rates, and since the banks can't offload as much of the debt as before, they'll have less money to lend to cardholders.

The squeeze has already started, which is why Congress is in the process of passing the Credit Cardholders' Bill of Rights, which would prevent issuers from changing rates and terms without warning, among many other provisions. But bottom line, the credit card money window is going to start closing - and soon.

So now what? It's hard to see where consumers can turn next. Home prices seem highly unlikely to start rising again soon. Stocks? You never know, but the Great Bull Market looks like a once-in-a-lifetime event. Homes and stocks are households' biggest asset classes by far. There isn't much else to borrow against.

It may be that the standard-of-living bubble finally has to deflate. Sustainable increases in living standards have to be earned, not borrowed, and that means performing ever higher value work that can't be outsourced. We haven't been meeting that challenge very well; doing so will probably require much more and better education for millions of Americans, which takes time and money.

The result may feel like deprivation, but I don't see it that way. Who knows - we might even find that living within our means and saving a little money actually isn't so bad.

I love that saying: FAKE LIVING THE GOOD LIFE.

Who does that remind you of? I know, "America". But WHICH AMERICANS?

Hmmm hm. Cali-Bangers. Cali-Bangers are living in the Biggest Meth Den in The World; California. A place where absolutely no one has a fucking clue what's really going on. The Cali-Banger will suffer a withdrawal so severe, that I actually believe many of them will WAKE UP WHITE PEEPUL and get the fuck outta there.

Again, you can be forgiven if you have come here from Cali: Lie prostrate on the ground groveling before every native Bendite and beg forgiveness for a hundred years of theft, rape, and murder. Do that and your men shall live. Do it not, and every one of you will die today.

Gat damn Braveheart! Well, anyway, you get the picture.

This country has been living some sort of credit-fueled dream, and it's about to become a nightmare. We ain't got the 36DDDDD's. We crack-ass ugly. We have been living a fantasy, and it will fall apart because all such things do. They must. We will either wake up or DIE.

Ask Jay Audia. You see Pollock KILLING himself over this shit? Fuck no, he's in MEXICO getting his 2" cock sucked by little boys. In Bend, once people wake up from the Cracker Nighmare, They fucking kill themselves.

Barriers To Exit are high in this Meth Den. YOUR MONEY OR YOUR LIFE. Those are the costs to get out.

Why are NO HOMES SELLING? Cuz they can't bring themselves to believe they are what they are. They believed the Grandmaster Pimp. They think they got the 36DDDD's. Everyone in Bend is an Olympic Athelete, right?

But ain't none of us Angelina Jolie. We just stupid Whitey. And until people wake up & CUT THEIR FUCKING PRICES IN HALF OR MORE, nothing will sell here. Just like no one really ever leaves whoring. They just take "breaks". Costs to exit are in your head, and that shit is hard to undo.

This is a town of HEDONISTS, because that is EXACTLY WHAT BEND MEDIA wants here. HEDONISTS will take the KOOL-AID, and not care what happens on The Back End. Even if it's losing everything. Hell, even if it's dying.

GROWTH: Funny thing how some things have Unintended Consequences. We started a War with Iraq, whose main consequence was enriching our enemies at a rate untold in history.

And the Growth Industry? Who knew it's primary byproduct is DEATH?

That's Bend. We reeled in every crack-addled hedonist for 1,000 miles and know we will either use them up so completely that they won't recognize themselves when they leave, or we will bury them.

Thanks Bend Media & Boss Hogg.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

IHTBYB Comes Out Of The Closet!

OK, I'd bettter come out and admit something that may well affect the future of this blog:

I am an Olympics Junkie.

Now you know.

When the Olympics are on, I can do little else than pee, eat, sleep, and watch the Olympics. I can barely form coherent sentence, I show up to work in a sleep-deprived fog, I sometimes don't shower for days.

Why do I have this problem? I don't watch football, baseball, or basketball, or any other professional sport, except on rare occasion. I think watching sports on TV is actually pretty lame.

But I can't help but enjoy what are for the most part, fairly regular-World people, gather together & compete in events that largely define these peoples entire lives. It's really more a real-World drama than sport.

And I don't have a particular favorite sport, person, or team that I am watching, or cheering for. I like ALL of it, I like watching everyone, winners & losers alike. American TV is naturally slanted wildly towards American athletes, so it's hard to get unbiased coverage on this or any broadcast really.

And the Olympics have been sort of commercialized & overrun with "Pros" like Kobe, etc., who you KNOW are going to win. Even the Grama swimmer Dara Torres employs a small scale army to get her in shape. This is probably my least favorite thing about watching the modern Olympics. Too commercial, and loaded with country-switching Pros. Yuk.

But I still love watching. I remember watching the US beat the Ruskies in 1980, one of a precious few things that stays with me after that many years. I remember watching & thinking, "I am watching a historic moment here, and it'll be recounted till I am dead".

And it was. And it is still easily the Greatest Thing I have ever seen on a TV screen. Maybe that's when I contracted this addiction.

Anyway, if you've wondered here I've been, I've been glued to my TV. Can't help it, and I offer no apologies. OK? Sorry.

So it may be for a week or two that you guys have to carry the day. I'm going to try to limit my Olympic fever to a few hours a day. Try.

OK, that said, I busted out of my myopic Bend-addled fog last week, and went for a long drive last week in points beyond.

And I guess it was curious to see this RE problem from a different perspective. I figured it was at it's worst here, and existed in far milder versions elsewhere.

No. Well, yes & no. It is damn bad here. But it is Really Bad All Over.

The truly strange thing that caught me off-guard was the "Commercial Development" seller. You know, because Bend is absolutely chucked full of them: The useless hunk of ground, butt-ugly, too ugly for homes in fact, in some semi-industrial Death Zone, with a For Sale sign on it declaring it fit for "Commercial Development".

My God, this sort of thing is EVERYWHERE. It's along empty highways, next to schools, in neighborhoods, everywhere.

I saw several worthless plots declared fit for Commercial Development in some of the most bizarre places. Empty grasslands, with not a soul for miles. It's like these people paid a few hundred bucks for scrub MORE USELESS than the badlands East of Bend, and all of a sudden decided that it's worth $2,000,000.

Of course none of it is selling, you can tell by the weathered appearance of the signs. This stuff has been for sale for a few years.

And then there is the VAST inventory of acreage properties. I guess living in Bend, and watching the stratospheric take-off of acreage properties made me think there is some sort of shortage, or groundswell in demand for these properties.

No. Well, there may be decent demand, but there is a wave of supply. And it seems to be the same root cause. People either HAVE TO sell for some reason, or there is a gold-rush mentality to it. They think they can get 10-20 fold what they paid a few years ago.

I suppose it was just strange to see that Bend is not that different. We do have a lot for sale, but the problem is far larger than I have ever seen it. I got a new appreciation for how mired in a quagmire the nations RE market is.

It's hard to see how large the problem is until you actually lay eyes on the hundreds & thousands of properties that are out there, and are clearly not moving. Bend is not alone in its inventory problem.

Oy, now for the tech-dregs. I got this from Buster or one of his clones:

BESIDES it being fucking stupid, the CUNT must spend ALL his time looking at the fucking analytic data points, but then again, he's a fucking MBA, he can spreadsheet this generated data, and beat-off.

Note one of the worst that HOME-BOY has enabled is urchin, this SHIT is really NO fucking different than what BENDBB does, its just that homer gets away with it like HBM says, about the masses BEING FUCKING STOOOPID.

As I thought, this are /etc/hosts entries so that certain domains go to your local loopback address. This is perfectly fine with me. Disable any or all src or href attributes you want, that is fine with me.

You'll find, if you take the time to View Source & search for the above terms ("googleadservices", for instance), you'll find they don't exist on this site.

I'll go one better: Go find an anonymous proxy somewhere & only surf this or other "suspicious" sites using anon-proxy. I'd give you the one I use to surf BendBB, but then it'd be banned... this happens on occasion when they figure out that they are not getting your real IP.

So go ahead & mislead, redirect & generally fuck with the system, it's all good with me. Some of these comments seem to imply that I give a shit about the identity of commenters. I have no unilateral way to convince anyone unambiguously that is not true, but I can urge you to take measures to keep your identity private.

There also seems to be this implication that I somehow "profit" from posting youtube, or other "off-site" crap on here.

Oh yes, I shall soon retire on the vast wealth I am accumulating from my youtube embedded videos. Oh yes. I'm really watching the money pile up from that. That & the craigslist RSS feeds. Woof. You have no idea how many mansions & Lamborghinis that has paid for.

OK, now for the non-borderline schizo's: OK, I just blog for my own enjoyment. I don't make dink, I DO have googles Urchin web analytics on the home page, something I check about never. I looked after I got "Pat-dotted", and got many thousands of hits out of nowhere. But that's about it. I don't care about IP's. I don't censor based on the offensiveness of anything. Hell, I encouraged people to go look at BendBB's "outting" post, cuz I knew that'd be gone before long.

This is just a little blog for posting what Bend media won't regarding Bend RE, and business in general. That's it.

I agree with the commenter, "Only the paranoid survive", and if you feel you are being "outted" here, you can modify your /etc/hosts file, or surf this site anon proxy. I NEVER go to BendBB except via anon proxy because it has been made clear via IP-banning policy that he IS keeping track of IP's over there. I HATE that.

This thing is meant to be open, free, yet respect individual privacy. So I am more about obfuscating your identity than anyone. Type "free anonymous proxy" into google, and find one you like, and bookmark it.

We ALL have a duty to Stick It to The Man in this regard.

Speaking of Sticking It To the Man, it seems the Al Haig moment sprouted some other Bend RE-bubble blogs.

Of course it is impossible for me to assert anything absolutely about who is doing what, but this appears to be a site fired up by our own dearest marge! Good going marge. Keep it up, and feel free to copy/paste stuff over here, URL's and all.

OK, I think this was started by Buster-Clones, as some sort of marge-proxy weirdness. Seems they didn't post since last March, until recently. This one is good if only for the horrible picture on the sidebar.

The top one is classic Cali-Banger. My Lord. That is a real person, not animated horror. And almost certainly of Cali origin.

Yup, this one is pretty good, featuring Post WWII apocalyptic pics. Anyone know who this is? Buster? In my Olympics-addled state, I'm finding it hard to keep up.

Anyway, I've been saying for some time that I am all for someone else taking over the reins (reigns?) of this thing, so that we can get a new perspective. I hope one or all of these blogs does well, and someone can take the lead on the Bend RE issue.

My primary objective has been "outting" Bend media as horribly slanted towards Bend RE, to the point of simply being PR whores. Some have not sold out so entirely. But if they are big & in broadcast or print, they almost certainly have.

Finally, before I head back to Olyimpificating my life:

tim said:
I thought we had seasonally peaked on inventory a couple weeks ago (like every other year), but looking at Clive's chart, I'm beginning to wonder if 2008 doesn't mark the emergence of a new kind of desperate late-summer seller.

anon said:
Could be we hit the sweet spot in GREATEST FOOL THEORY, remember it was supposed to come back for two years no. I think that all but the BEND-DEAD know its NOT coming back, sell now while you have a prayer, that is what's going on.

Yeah, I'm starting to question the validity of many Long Held Beliefs regarding the Bend RE market. Used to be you listed early Spring, sold in the Summer, and hibernate in the Winter. Easy, predictable.

But we're entering a new phase here: Forced Selling. People are not going broke according to the seasons around here. And if you go to, you'll see that foreclosures are what is fueling the local market. NOT the seasons.

I figured the local inventory situation would look like a fairly gently rising sine wave, higher peaks & higher valleys. But I'm wondering if the coming valley fails to really materialize. And turns into more of a flat plateau. And next year begins a new wave up from there.

This market is coming apart. It's hard to even predict things that have held for decades, like Bends yearly cyclicality. It think it'll remain, but it'll flatten & ramp up into a monotonic rising wave.

My own view of the RE market outside Bend tells me that NO ONE is coming here to save us. They CANNOT sell what they have. As blindly myopic as I thought Bend sellers were, the rest of the country is pretty close. EVERYONE in this country is selling, or trying to, and they are not succeeding.

The RE market seems well & truly screwed for many, many years.

One more quick thing:

Rent & Invest The Difference still rolls on as my favorite investment theme for Bend.

There were occasional cries of "Invest in what?" several months ago, a legitimate question.

Hopefully, I've answered this criticism. I DO NOT believe RE is a prudent investment for what may well be the rest of my working life. Medians would have to fall to parity with rents for me to become interested, and we're NOT EVEN CLOSE.

Bonds, whether gov't or corporate, are an unknown quantity. Read the comments and you can see that these things are based on the re-payment capacity of some very marginal borrowers. And I believe there will be a cascading effect that we haven't even seen the beginning of.

And as Buster said, Price Ain't The Problem. Banks are ONLY loaning to FICO 800, 75% LTV, pristine borrowers. That's a rare bird these days, and getting rarer. No one borrowing, no one loaning, and everyone throwing around homes like hot potatoes, dropping prices to no avail.

It Ain't Price. We are tapped out or BK as a country. Every last dollar that could be borrowed, was borrowed and now we're coming to find that we can't pay it back.

It'll take a few more years, but RE will hit & drag bottom for a few years. But don't buy it yet.

Personally, I plowed into some spec stocks in July, and am doing OK. I think stocks are the Last Bastion of Safety, which is just strange. Stocks have traditionally been the Flight FROM Safety investment when things get uncertain.

But the usual Flight TO Safety instruments (bonds of all maturities) are suspect. The Full Faith & Credit of the US is now MORTGAGE BACKED. OK, WHY we are BUYING this crap is beyond me. Bear Stearns gets KILLED in the mortgage-backed market & the US Gov't decides NOW is the time to JUMP INTO THE MORTGAGE MARKET.

I don't get it. The outcome seems simple: INFLATION. More specifically, STAGFLATION.

We will print our way "out of this thing". Of course this NEVER WORKS. And maybe sometime I can show graphically why I think that as interest rates go up, stocks actually become the Best Investment Bet.

OK, so I must now return to my butt-cheek carved place on the couch, and watch the Olympics. I promise I'll try to comment more this week, and actually dedicate a brain cell or two to thoughts of RE and the like.

But meanwhile.... Phelps awaits.

Sunday, August 10, 2008

IHTBYB Outted on BendBB? I Can't Believe It's Not Butter!

Well, we knew it here first from marge, and The Bulletin reported it Friday that medians in Bend got killed last month.

Median prices, sales mostly down in July

Bend's median sales price for a single-family home in July dropped to $287,000, down nearly 9 percent from June, according to the latest Bratton Report, released Thursday.
July's median was about 16 percent less than the July 2007 median of $343,000.
The number of sales last month also dipped almost 9 percent from June, to 104. There were 152 sales in July 2007.
The median sales price per square foot, considered by many real estate experts to be a better measure of value, dropped to $152 in July from $166 in June, the lowest since July 2005.

Of the homes sold in Bend in July, the majority -- 29 -- were priced between $200,000 and $250,000. And additional 23 homes were priced between $250,000 and $300,000. Two homes sold for more than $1 million.

In Redmond, the median price in July dipped to $215,000 on sales of 42 homes. The median price per square foot rose nearly 8 percent, from $127 in June to $137 in July.
In other areas of Deschutes County, the median prices for July were $327,000 in Sisters, on sales of 7 homes; $564,000 in Sunriver, on sales of two homes; and $160,000 in La Pine, on sales of two homes.

You can see that the high end stuff is hardly selling at all. It looks like the mix has definitely downshifted. Sunriver has all but dried up. La Pine as well.

This was supposed to be our swan song, the time after we had hit rock bottom back in April. Supposed to be doing great, right?

No, well after this month, you will quickly watch things go to hell. How far? I found this piece regarding rent-to-value ratios:

Rent or Buy: Craigslist and
by Brent Wilson

Home ownership is a deeply ingrained desire for most Americans. Who wants to brag about how nice their rental house is? Besides, home interest is tax deductible, so it isn’t really money, right?

Normally it’s a good idea to buy if prices are in line with rents, but in many areas prices have shot way ahead of rents, although things are coming back into line.

To compare rents and home prices, what follows is a comparison of home prices from and rental prices from Craigslist. This study is very unscientific, since it isn’t normally possible to compare the exact house for rent with the exact same house for sale–normally a house is either for sale or for rent.

However, I’ll try to include similar sized and similar looking houses within a given city, at least based on descriptions and pictures.

Thousand Oaks , CA This listing on Craigslist is going for $3900 per month, which includes gardener and pool service. The house
is 3000 square feet, 3 car garage, etc. This works out to $46,800 per year. lists houses with 2700+ square feet in Thousand Oaks starting at roughly $675,000, on up to above $900,000. At the lowest price of $675,000, the total cost to own would run roughly $67,500 per year (7% mortgage, 1% property tax, 1% maintenance, 1% for insurance and general upkeep). A house more comparable to the one on Craigslist would probably run around $750,000-$800,000, or around $75,000 per year to own. Tack on $4000 a year or so for gardener and pool service for a total of $79,000 per year.

Ventura, CA This house on Craigslist is renting for $2250 per month, 4 bedroom, 2 bath with a 2 car garage. Works out to
$27,000 per year. lists a number of 4 bedroom, 2 bath homes in Ventura which look fairly similar, in the $400,000 price range. This would work out to roughly $40,000 per year to own.

Santa Rosa/Rohnert Park, CA This house is in Rohnert Park, just next to Santa Rosa, CA. 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath, 2 car garage, rents for $2300 per month, $27,600 per year. lists a number of fairly similar looking houses for $375,000-$450,000, or roughly $40,000 a year.

Reno, Nevada $1600 a month will get you this brand-new looking house in Reno, 3/2/2. $19,200 per year. lists a number of similar looking houses for around $200,000, so this might be one place where it could pay to buy.

Minneapolis, MN Just for variety, here’s a split level 4 bedroom in the Minneapolis area for $1500 a month, or $18,000 per year. lists a number of similar looking houses for around $200,000, so this might be another area where it could pay to buy (if you can handle the winter heat bills).

Roseburg, Oregon OK, so Roseburg is out in the boonies, but this house rents for only $850 a month and looks like new. $10,200 per year. lists a number of fairly similar houses for $175,000-$200,000 or so in the Roseburg area. Annual cost $18,000 or so annually, so it seems better by far to rent around there.

Do Your Own Comparison

You can do your own comparison in your area by just multiplying your rent by twelve, and dividing the purchase price by ten, to get a very rough figure to compare.

This is assuming you have a good landlord who performs repairs on a timely basis, and that you are considering buying a well built house that doesn’t need much work. is a good place to look for comparable houses for sale, since it normally includes the local multi-list. Craigslist has a good selection of rental properties, although it has been my experience that you can usually find a place for less than on Craigslist by driving around, calling yard signs, local newspaper ads, etc.

If you really want to compare prices, it’s probably best to just compare cash outlay between renting and owning. Over time, if you own, you will probably end up spending unexpected money on furnaces, air conditioners, sewer lines, water heaters, etc, and this amount of money will probably about equal whatever tax benefit you might have gotten from the mortgage interest deduction (if you are lucky). Have you checked lately what it costs to replace a roof? Or a furnace? When you rent, you don’t have to worry about what it costs–the landlord does.

Lots of people rush into a home purchase without thinking about how long they might stay in a place. In general, if you think you could move within 3 or 4 years, you might just be better off renting. When you rent, you don’t have to pay 6-10% to move (Realtor’s commission plus a fee to every real estate service provider within 5 miles). When you rent, you just pack up and go.


In many areas, way too many homes have been built and can’t be sold, so property owners are renting out brand new houses to at least get something coming in.

If you can work it, you might be able to get a great deal on renting a brand new house for a few years, maybe for less than 2/3 of what it would cost you to buy. It might pay to drive around some areas where new houses have been built recently to see if you can find a rental.

Landlords Provide a Real Service

Landlords provide a valuable service–they provide you with a suitable place to call home, without you having to go into debt for decades to buy it. They also repair everything that needs it (at least most do), pay the taxes and insurance, and sometimes even take care of the yard and pay the water bill.

When you get ready to move, you just give notice, pack up, and move! Some landlords will even rent to you for less than their house payment! Renting isn’t for everybody, but it makes sense to lots of people, especially if you can rent a place for considerably less than it would cost to buy, without tying up your money or going into debt.

Regardless of what you do, it can pay to do a little off the cuff comparison of costs before you buy or rent, just to see how things stack up in your area.

Incredibly, rents in Bend compare closest to Roseburg, where they advise Not Buying. And that's for homes in the $175-200K range! That bodes ill for Bend.

This all goes back to ROI that is far below comparable investments. ROI on Bend homes while starting to rise recently, is still far below almost anything in the US.

Don't think that $287K is a bargain, just because we haven't seen prices like these since Summer 2005. It is looking more & more like sub $200K medians will ultimately happen here.

The Outrage of The Week has to AGAIN source from Don Bau-humper:

“We had a lease-back program on our project out at Eagle Crest,” said Pennbrook founder Don Bauhofer. “With the downturn in the market, the company just ran out of money.”

Nevada investor Chad Osorno purchased two homes from Pennbrook in January and February 2007.

He entered into a lease-back agreement with Highland Investors in February, according to his suit.

The companies stopped paying the $3,279 per month rent in November, Osorno’s suit says, and he’s seeking $69,158 in rent, late fees and interest.

You wonder what the THOUSANDS of incorporations that spiraled into the stratosphere over the past 5 years, that's what this is. Sleazeballs like Bauhofer enter into these agreements with almost NO ACCOUNABILITY for paying you.

Should have asked WHAT Highland Partners is? What happened to that MONEY? This thing SOLD you the houses, got a big wad of cash, and then shortly after DEFAULTED.

Where's that BIG WAD of money? That should have remained in the partnership that sold those houses, and it was almost certainly bled out to Bau-humper himself.

This guy was 100% scammed.

Of course, these are some Nevada investors who had no business swimming with the Cent OR sharks. A Sale-Leaseback of a $500K house? WTF? Here's the Humper:

But Bauhofer said the agreements ceased to make sense as the homes’ values dropped from more than $550,000 to less than $400,000. The companies, out of money, stopped making payments, Bauhofer said.

Huh? He sold a $500K house to the guy, he's GOT THE MONEY. Now, he says since the house he SOLD has gone down in value... no wait, it's not that, it's because the shell company that engaged the transaction has run out of money, that he cannot fulfill the transaction.

That's like Dunc saying he can't make his lease payments cuz the building has gone down in value. But then later flip-flops claiming poverty.

See, I have a feeling if some "normal" tried this stunt, and they were hauled into court, they'd LOSE BIG. If some shopkeeper downtown tried this, they'd declare the rent + damages DUE & PAYABLE before they even walked in the court room.

But Bauhofer will probably get away with it. It was a 100% SCAM SALE. There was NO LEASE BACK. Bau-humper had about 2 shits worth of intent to pay this guy his money. He inflated the price, with a commensurate PACK OF LIES about money he was going to pay the dude.

Standard Ponzi Scheme. 100% lies about a HUGE PAYOFF to get your money up front.

OK, moving on.

Lookie here! Little old BendBubble2 is getting some play in the Source:

Real Estate's Dead, But Weeds Look Healthy

Is it just our imagination, or is Bend looking weedier (and seedier) than usual this summer?

A month ago the BendBubble2 blog commented on the proliferation of weeds around town, attributing it to the real estate bust.

“Problem is Bend is hucked-full of empty houses,” wrote “I Hate to Burst Your Bubble.” “These things aren't getting minimal maintenance, they're getting none. And you'd think that after a long, cold winter, things would brighten, and all would be well, and that at the very least, the landscape here would ‘stage’ itself. After all, many front yards are meant to mirror desert scrub. But it's not working out that way.”

IHTBYB proves his point by posting a bunch of photos of really butt-ugly weed-filled yards (plus a lot of colorful, funny and obscene comments).

Why can’t the city do something about all this unsightly – and potentially dangerous – overgrowth that threatens to make Bend look like some 1930s Oklahoma dust bowl town? We spoke with Bend Deputy Fire Chief Gary Marshall to get the straight skinny.

The city has an ordinance requiring property owners to cut down weeds if they become a fire hazard, he explained. The problem, as always, is money.

If the fire department finds high weeds growing within 10 feet of any building, tree or fence it will give the property owner 14 days to cut them down, Marshall said. If the weeds are still not cut after two weeks the owner generally will get “a few more days” to do it.

Finally, the fire department can ask the city public works department to send out a crew to cut the weeds and bill the property owner for the work. The city also can slap the owner with a $250 fine, Marshall said. Trouble is, budget cuts resulting from the real estate collapse mean there aren’t enough city crews to get the job done.

There’s another problem, Marshall said: “We have so many property owners that don’t live in the state. We send them certified letters [telling them to cut their weeds] and we don’t get a reply. We really have no way to go after these people.”

The Eye has no way of knowing how many of those out-of-state weed scofflaws are former real estate “investors” (aka speculators, aka flippers) who just took off for points south, north, west and east when the Bend market went belly-up – but we suspect there are more than a few.

Anyway, if you spot a weed problem you can call the city’s weed control hotline, 541-317-3002, Ext. 3. Good luck.

This exacerbates the problem of selling. It's like a foreclosure in your neighborhood; it brings down the value of your house, even if you're down the street a ways.

Head over to Forum Meadows, and there aren't even fences to break up the sea of weeds. Head over to, and look at Forum Meadows; listings are so thick, you can drill down far enough.

From Nov 18, 2007:

How builders plan to face housing slide

Some aren’t waiting to find the bottom before they jump ship.

Buena Vista Custom Homes, a Lake Oswego-based company that billed itself as one of the nation’s fastest-growing builders when it moved into the Bend market in early 2006, announced Thursday that it will put all 200 of its unsold homes in Oregon up for auction next month, including 29 in Forum Meadows, its brand-new east-Bend subdivision.

“We were overaggressive and too slow to react to the changes in the market, and that has created an oversupply of finished homes,” Buena Vista President Roger Pollock said in a company press release. “Buyers are going to get amazing deals, but we simply have to reduce our inventory.”

Then March 20, 2008:

Bend subdivision faces foreclosure

Elsewhere in Bend, Buena Vista Custom Homes has rented 18 of the 29 homes in its Forum Meadows development near St. Charles Bend since efforts to sell the homes in mid-December at auction failed to produce a single sale, said Mike Higgins, a spokesman for the Lake Oswego-based builder.

“It was done in a loss position, but it was better than the alternative,” Higgins said. “If we can’t sell them, we’ve got to do something. We looked to auction the homes, but it didn’t work. Builders right now are just trying to make the mess go away.”

Lemme guess: Buena Vista Homes WISHES they had SOLD these dogs at auction way back when. Remember, he accused bidders of trying to "steal" these homes with their PATHETIC bids.

Now these shit-tacular STD's have gone to seed. There should be some sort of Weed Formula for calculating how the height & thickness of weeds in a neighborhood discount area home prices.

By my reckoning, Forum Meadows & several other places will be nearly invisible soon, swallowed up by an onslaught of weeds.

Another interesting stat I ran across this week. Go to, and click on Oregon on the map on the home page.

Yes, you see that "1 in 398 homes in foreclosure" gradient, The Highest Foreclosure Rate In the State?

Yes, that would be Deschutes County. More foreclosures per 1,000 homes than anywhere in Oregon.

The Source: Why don't you cover that? I ask you because I know full well The Bulletin would NEVER cover that.

For perspective, the lowest foreclosure rate is in Lake County, with a mere 1 foreclosure per 12, 138 homes. The Meth-ford market is in 2nd place, with a still mild 1:559 ratio.

And of course, we are nowhere near cycle bottoms.

OK, moving on to Rent & Invest The Diff: Well, it had a pretty good week.

I bought Lithia Motors several weeks ago, a little Medford-based car dealership with 110 locations. My own rationale was pretty simple: If these dealerships are worth about $5MM, then they might have rock-bottom cycle-low valuations of $500-600MM, net of debts & S/T payables.

Well, Lithia announced earnings Friday, and they were horrendous. Right?

Then why was the stock up 20%?

Lithia Motors Announces Second Quarter 2008 Results


Lithia Motors, Inc. (NYSE:LAD) today announced that net income from continuing operations in the second quarter of 2008 was ten cents per diluted share, excluding after-tax adjustments for asset impairments of $243.4 million (or $12.27 per share) and a net loss from discontinued operations of $2.2 million (or ten cents per share).

Then down in the dregs:

Under SFAS No. 142, "Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets," the Company is required to perform a goodwill impairment analysis on an interim basis if certain events or circumstances indicate that it is more likely than not that an impairment loss has been incurred. Recent restructuring actions taken, including the placing of stores up for sale, an adverse change in business climate, reduced earnings forecast and the significant decrease in the Company's share price required goodwill to be tested on an interim basis in the second quarter. The Company performed the required steps for impairment analysis and concluded that the entire balance of goodwill was impaired. The Company recorded a non-cash impairment charge to write-off the entire balance of goodwill of $210.6 million after tax in the second quarter, of which $24.8 million is classified in discontinued operations. In the quarter, the Company also recorded a non-cash asset impairment charge of $32.8 million after tax related to certain indefinite-lived intangible assets (franchise value) and other long-lived assets, of which $10.0 million is classified in discontinued operations.

They recorded a HUGE $210MM loss from the goodwill on their balance sheet. Did they actually lose $210MM this quarter? No, just an accounting entry.

But it creates a HUGE tax loss carryforward, essentially making most if not all of Lithia's earnings from now on, virtually tax-free. And you can see that they are in small-scale liquidation mode:

On June 2nd, 2008, the Company announced restructuring plans that would generate annualized savings of $18 million. Additionally, the Company outlined a list of steps it is taking to right-size and realign its business. Mr. DeBoer continued, "Those cost savings have all been completed, and we are now on track for $22 million in total cost reductions - as we have recently added an additional $4 million in planned annualized cost cuts. Since the beginning of the year, we have reduced the outstanding debt on our credit line from $184 million to $138 million. We have sold one domestic store and have agreements on six of the thirteen remaining store divestitures. An additional two domestic stores are pending sale as a result of an unsolicited offer, showing a demand still exists for domestic auto retail stores. These store sales are estimated to generate over $35 million in total net cash proceeds."
"Through the second quarter, financing of real estate has raised net proceeds of approximately $65 million. The depreciated value of our real estate portfolio in continuing operations has book value of over $300 million, and we are confident it would appraise for significantly more; we have real estate debt of approximately $220 million - leaving substantial room for additional financing to be completed throughout the remainder of the year. This does not include $22.8 million in development properties and our airplane which are held for sale - many of which have pending buy-sell agreements."

It's not entirely clear whether he's saying that Lithia will clear $35MM on six store, or 7. Either way, it looks like they are being forced to sell at cycle-low valuations of about $6MM/store.

And these stores are fairly decent sized operations. Lithia grosses $3.2BB on these 110 stores, or about $30MM per. So that $6MM sale price is actually a bargain... maybe.

So Lithia created a HUGE tax loss carryforward Friday, announced $.10/earnings after severe cost reductions, and showed they can sell dealerships at prices that put a valuation on the whole shebang at around $500-600MM, about half of it distributable tax free.

The market value of Lithia is $108MM.

So why do IHTBYB tout his stock? Well, I have said repeatedly that Rent & Invest The Diff is THE DOMINANT investing theme for Cent OR. Can't buy RE, you'll get killed. Can't buy bonds, you'll end up with toxic shock with the crap being sold (and now bought back) by Citicorp, USB, and others.

That leaves stocks & commodities. I faded the oil frenzy hard, because I saw $150 crude hitting a demand wall. I personally am consuming FAR LESS. people are engaging in some wholesale behavior changes that will be tough to undo in the S/T.

We're still consuming to much, and I still think inflation is a Big Problem, but commodities as an investment medium is black hole to me. I know me, and I would be easily scared out of a position. Besides, it's leveraged to much. Commodities is too much like pure gambling.

So I am buying small-scale, workout-situations that are negative delta on oil. But their real, and required feature is Deep Value. I saw stocks that hit 80-90% discounts from fair value in mid-July. And I bought several, not in huge amounts, and I scaled down.

I missed a few, such as US Airways & Six Flags which had a One Day Wonder implosion.

But I remain with what I've got, they are situations that I've studied to the extent I am able, and I still feel like they have a rough row to hoe, but they seem very undervalued in some instances.

This is what works for me. It may not be good for you. I can only recommend a widely diversified domestic & foreign blend of stocks & bonds (corp & gov't) for people who want minimal risks per the highest unit of return. This works.

Finally, some are saying that I have been disrespectful to recently deceased Cent OR RE participants. Really?

OK, use your browser search feature (Ctrl-F) right now and look for these people's names.

There is NOTHING derogatory about any of these people. NOTHING.

Have I said the RE game they were involved with is full of sleaze, slime, scum, Ponzi Scheme con-men? Well, maybe not, but it is. These guys were playing with sharks.

But I never disparaged these guys. I disagree with their choice of investments. But I never said anything against them. Look for "Audia" on this page:

  • This McDonald guy buys Meyers chunk of the Shire for an unknown amount in May, and not even 2 months later, jumps over Benham falls? Really? That's an awful long distance to cover from doubling up on REd, to committing hari kari, in such a short time.
  • And Jay Audia shot himself? This is another vulture job in the works that seems to have driven it's principle to his grave awful fast.
  • It's getting awful strange. Start combing the obits. Audia supposedly shot himself, a crime so easily done by someone else, a 2 year old could have planned it. McDonald's story just doesn't add up at all.
  • Anyway, be concerned about your privacy. I'm not AT ALL convinced the Audia & McDonald deaths are suicides. There's a LOT of money being lost, and it would not surprise me in the least that deluded RE speculators would approach some seedier types to do a refi, to bridge the financing gap & keep a project alive.
  • I don't know who this Jay Audia guy is, but he swooped in on what is now the Mirada parcel, bought it at a pretty good discount, and was going to make low-end laborer shacks. We've talked about this in the past actually. I've actually put pictures of Mirada right here in this blog.
  • Apparently Mirada, at steep land price discounts, still did not work out. And this Audia guy took it to heart. Too bad. But it illustrates a point.
  • Jay Audia, I'm sure was a nice guy. But he bought into The Bend Dream, like thousands of others. But it's a DREAM folks. This place doesn't really have a sustainable economy.
  • And it's because the media WON'T let us BURN. Audia in the papers as a WARNING? No. Put out that fire. What's after Audia then? Someone going postal?
  • See, Jay Audia is the collateral damage of this firestorm. There will ALWAYS be losses. Anyone whose been in Cent OR for the Summer season KNOWS there's always going to be a spark.
  • But no one wants anyone to know that. They think that ARTIFICIAL CONTAINMENT is a sustainable practice, it is not. Jay Audia killed Jay Audia. But in some measure John Costa killed Audia. KTVZ killed Audia. Hell, even Alan Greenspan had a hand in it.
  • Jay Audia would be alive today were the NASDAQ recession allowed to run its course. But no, Greenspan had to resurrect the Cali-Banger ASAP. Who cares about Round 2, that's Not My Watch.
  • Drugs. Business Closures. Murder. Suicide. Speed traps. Bank failures. Homocide. Fannie. Freddie. Foreclosures. The Plaza. Meth dens. Robbery. Embezzlement. Fraud. Jay Audia.

Here's someone's reaction on BendBB:

Up until a few weeks ago, I thought a person had every right to be anonomous on the web, but seeing IHTBYB's writings about Jay Audia changed my mind. When anonymity is used to cause unneccessary and unwarranted pain to a family, it is much like using the right of free speech to yell FIRE in a crowded theater.


You know, whoever you are, if Audia is a friend of yours, I'm sorry for your loss. I know people who knew him, and I heard he was a nice guy.

But there is NOTHING in this blog disparaging the guy.

"Jay Audia, I'm sure was a nice guy."

I don't know the guy, but I assume the best.

You are missing the point. I want people to WAKE THE FUCK up. Is it worth KILLING yourself over a RE deal gone bad? I would say HELL NO.

It WAS a warning shot that there may exist the possibility that there are some unscrupulous types who will attempt to engage you in a transaction. That is what happens when the money starts flowing, it attracts scammers, grifters, and in some cases much worse.

This is a person who wanted to distort the FACTS as much as possible, and try to take a punitive action against me. Of course, I would never confirm or deny such silliness.

But you might want to consider the idea that outting someone will be done erroneously. Certain situations can develop in situations like that, and they can have fairly unfortunate circumstances for those involved. These people own arms in abundance, and they don't take kindly to unpleasant strangers at their door.

The Eastside don't abide that shit, motherfucker.

I guess what I find most unbeleivable about this, is that people at first blush seem to believe this! Personally, I would take any such pronouncements with a HUGE grain of salt. My skepticism would be nearly 100%. Besides, what if it is correct? How will I ever KNOW that? What would I do anyway?

If you want to "out" someone using some sort of warped logic, that is your business. I guess all I can say is I disagree with it. Fuck, Buster has equated me & Dunc, me & Tim, and basically me & most other people on this thing. Fuck, it's like it's me talking to myself on this thing.

The only thing that worries me about this? Comment from BendBB:

It's very dangerous to believe an address posted on the Internet. Someone can be trying to get back at someone and post an address.

And if anyone gets hurt or harassed, the lawmen will be looking at IP. If you hid your IP, they'll be looking at ISP records.

Posting someone's address in this context can easily be construed as some sort of retaliation. Why else would you do it? Try to imagine the following scenario:

1) This person is NOT ME.
2) They are well-armed.
3) They are not pleasantly predisposed to a hostile visitor on their doorstep spewing bullshit.

Your little outting WILL come back to you. You'll need to be explaining to a Judge why you felt you needed to initiate a series of events that may have an unpleasant outcome. Think about it.

And whoever did this will almost certainly construe such statements as a threat of some sort. Of course it is not. It is a POSSIBLE consequence of YOUR ACTIONS, not mine.

"Outting" someone is an action so idiotic & fraught with negative consequences, you have to wonder about person doing it. I actually encourage people to go read BendBB's thread on this (anon proxy, of course). The comments are, as usual, the most interesting part.

Anyway, I guess stuff like this is inevitable. All I can say is I have respect for the dead, no matter the circumstances. Audia & McDonald and others MAY have made choices in the investment arena that contributed to their demise. MAYBE. If so, I just disagree with their decision to kill themselves. IT AIN'T THAT BAD. My Lord. It's just fucking real estate. Your life is WAY more important than that.

All I am saying is If You Are About To Invest In Something That Could REMOTELY Cause You To Kill Yourself:


Sunday, August 3, 2008

Bank-Ordered Mob Hits Begin in Bend Oregon

Only in Bend.

I checked Busters (?) assertion that this rel="nofollow" thing exists on my template, and it does. Here is the low down from google (Which OWNS blogspot).

Preventing comment spam

1/18/2005 04:28:00 PM

If you're a blogger (or a blog reader), you're painfully familiar with people who try to raise their own websites' search engine rankings by submitting linked blog comments like "Visit my discount pharmaceuticals site." This is called comment spam, we don't like it either, and we've been testing a new tag that blocks it.

From now on, when Google sees the attribute (rel="nofollow") on hyperlinks, those links won't get any credit when we rank websites in our search results. This isn't a negative vote for the site where the comment was posted; it's just a way to make sure that spammers get no benefit from abusing public areas like blog comments, trackbacks, and referrer lists.

Q: How does a link change?
A: Any link that a user can create on your site automatically gets a new "nofollow" attribute. So if a blog spammer previously added a comment like Visit my discount pharmaceuticals site. That comment would be transformed to Visit my discount pharmaceuticals site.

Q: What types of links should get this attribute?
A: We encourage you to use the rel="nofollow" attribute anywhere that users can add links by themselves, including within comments, trackbacks, and referrer lists. Comment areas receive the most attention, but securing every location where someone can add a link is the way to keep spammers at bay.

Q: Should I put rel="nofollow" on the link to my comments page?
A: Probably not, because lots of interesting discussion can happen there. Also, if other people link to your comments page, a spider can follow that link and find any spam that's lurking on the comments page. The best places to add this attribute are the actual links that other people can create. So on this page, for instance, only the links within comments and the link immediately after "Posted by:" would get the rel="nofollow" attribute.

Q: Do individual bloggers need to do anything?
A: Probably not. Updating the software that generates these pages will ensure that most bloggers get these changes automatically.

Q: Is this a blog-only change?
A: No. We think any piece of software that allows others to add links to an author's site (including guestbooks, visitor stats, or referrer lists) can use this attribute. We're working primarily with blog software makers for now because blogs are such a common target. Got more questions? Email commentspam at As we spot more areas where spammers still abuse the Web, we'll contact the appropriate people in order to keep fighting comment spam. Matt Cutts, Google Software Engineer Jason Shellen, Blogger Program Manager

The reaction to nofollow has really been quite positive, especially considering how diverse the web is. We're delighted to announce more support for nofollow:

So there it is. I'm sort of ambivalent about it. I use a lot of links to sites like the Bulletin, or Cascade Business Buttbangers that I frankly DO NOT want to get a Page Rank increase from this blogs inbounds.

But I took out the nofollow's for now, anyway. I figure I can reinstate them if there is a rapid increase in spam.

And even more awesomeness from his High Busterness:

Homer has every fucking kind of spybot in the universe enabled in his code with all the widgets and gadgets he uses

Right now there are over 30 sites in my 'locale' to map all of homers spybots to NULL.

Oh boy. I can only assume he's talking about the little widgets embedded on the right side of the page.

These are little hunks of javascript that provide the craigslist RSS feed, the stock market widget stuff, and that's about it, to my knowledge. But if Buster can provide some sort of idea as to what these 30 "spybots" are, I'll take a look.

I assume he has editted his /etc/hosts (or similar) file to map these "off site" http calls to his local. I suppose that's one option, but I've noticed that when you unplug your net connection, and try to load a page with say, a Yahoo map on it, that it'll grind away forever trying to grab the content.

Anyway, I'm as paranoid as the next guy, and don't want my own data being gathered more than is necessary. But at some point you have to realize that using the Inner Nets at all requires some level of identification.

OK, I take privacy seriously, but enough geeky bullshit.

Things are indeed getting strange in Bend. We knew they would, but The Mob? From Buster:

Re: So that doctor Lynn McDonald killed himself on July 7th,... He was developer #2. First was Doug Sokol in Sisters, and third was Jay Audia. Things are getting ugly. * Real journalism would have a field day on BEND-OR, #1 over-priced RE in the USA, #1 RE-Developer per-capita 'suicide' rate, or death in unusual circumstance's. Well what do you expect the town is RAN by the BOSS-HOGG, the BULL&SORE are RAN by the BOSS-HOGG. In whose interest is any of this? Just sit on it for months or years, and then the Oregonian will revisit it when its long been over.

A more interesting thing would be the insurance angle, especially in these cases of accidental death. Quite often on these BIG RE-POOL deals the mob takes out insurance policy's, in event of loss of money, your-out, and they collect. It's always been the honorable thing to do.
It would be interesting if we could find out if DR. SHIRE who accidentally took a swim down Benham Falls, had lots of insurance by third partys??

And from the Shire article:

McDonald and his wife, Jan, had taken full ownership of the project in May with the hope they could sell it, Jan McDonald said Wednesday.

Jan McDonald is trying to sell the 14 developed lots, one house and additional land before the 6-acre property goes to public auction in December, she said.

The family owes Umpqua Bank $3.4 million on the project, according to the default notice.

The notice also names Meyers as a guarantor.

More from Buster:

We have a lot of newbies in the last few days. I completely agree with fresh-blood that the reason is that blog's are few in BEND, and places where people can say their mind are even fewer. Thus folks flock to this rock in the desert, and leave their mark. I have said many a times, that this is a mob town, and people will kill. It is essential for everyones safety to remain anonymous. Suicides will become all too common, and it will even become easier to disguise an act of aggression as an accident. There has NEVER been a better time to be anonymous in Bend.

Now maybe you can see why I start out this piece with some sort of geek-ridden crap about anonymity. Things really are starting to go in a weird direction.

This McDonald guy buys Meyers chunk of the Shire for an unknown amount in May, and not even 2 months later, jumps over Benham falls? Really? That's an awful long distance to cover from doubling up on REd, to committing hari kari, in such a short time.

And Jay Audia shot himself? This is another vulture job in the works that seems to have driven it's principle to his grave awful fast.

I don't know. These may have been perfectly legit suicides with 2 despondent dudes who couldn't bear the thought of going on without getting blowjobs on Volo's upper deck every Friday & Saturday night.

But Buster raises an interesting alternative: These are bank ordered mob hits.

There are people in the World who DO think that when you owe them money, and you don't pay, that your life is forfeit. And it'd be easy to do & get away with:

"Listen, you either pay up, or I will kill your wife, your kids, and everyone you know. And if you say one word, I kill 'em all. Now, you get me that money, or that's it. You either do the right thing, or we will. You savvy?"

Here's the quote from the Bulletins crack team of Investigative Journalists:

The Shire concept originated with Ron Meyers, who sold his share in the development for an unspecified amount to Dr. Lynn B. McDonald — a former emergency room physician at St. Charles Bend. McDonald died July 7.

Wow. So they're doing a piece on foreclosure at The Shire, and the owner DIED.

That's all. He just died, and they fail to mention HOW. Here's an interesting quote from

Deschutes County Sheriff's Search and Rescue and U.S. Forest Service crews were scouring the Deschutes River and its banks late Sunday in the area of Benham Falls, southwest of Bend, after a Bend man's bicycle and pickup truck left in the area prompted concern that he might be lost in or near the river.

If they were checking the banks, they should try the refi department.

So this guy DROWN going over Benham Falls. An Emergency Room physician, heads out to LA PINE, gets MIXED UP, and goes over the falls?

Here's some more from The Bulletin piece covering his death:

He owned the Parrell-Sisters Mobile Home Park, which was placed in receivership in May, as well as unsold properties in The Shire subdivision in Bend.

“He was actually getting over some big hurdles in his life,” Stuman said. “The last e-mail I got from him on that subject was last Friday, and it was just kind of like ‘Let’s get the investors paid off, except me, and move on.’”

So he's trying to "move past" this thing & get his ducks in a row, he's got a wife & 16 year old twins, and he... KILLS HIMSELF?

I don't know. That sounds Real Strange. First, jumping off a waterfall is not a guaranteed suicide. A lot of times it's just a severe "hobbling".

And read the article: Doctor's body found below Benham Falls. Look for the word "died". Not there. Look for "suicide". Not there. "Killed", ditto. "Jumped", ditto. "Drown", same.

There's no mention of any sort of CAUSE OF DEATH. He was just FOUND. How was he found, in what state? Well, search for the word "dead", and of course you can't find it. But certainly, he "died", right? Well, you won't find that word in the piece, so possibly he survived.

His body was just FOUND, and there is no mention of him being "dead", or having "died", or having "drown", or having "jumped", or anything else. Fuck, maybe he jumped from an airplane, and his chute didn't open. Hard to say, cuz the Bulletin MAKES NO MENTION OF ANY FACT WITH RESPECT TO THIS MANS DEATH. None whatever. What do they say?

Two rescue boats and two divers discovered McDonald’s body under about 10 feet of water, less than one-quarter of a mile upriver from the Slough day-use area, Mills said.

Mills said he had known McDonald since he started working at the St. Charles Bend emergency room and called the doctor a “longtime friend to the Deschutes County Sheriff’s Office.”

Officials have no indication how or why McDonald got into the river, Mills said, and an investigation into the circumstances surrounding his death will continue today.

Yeah, investigations will continue, my ass. Yeah, like fucking OJ is going to find Nicole & Ron's killer if he has to work forever. Investigation, my fat ass.

Now, I'm not saying this guy did NOT commit suicide, but this is awful strange. If I wanted to kill some fucker for not paying me back, this would be one of your more obvious routes to go. Drown the bastard, then cram the body UNDER 10 FEET of water.


I mean, What The Fuck? I thought bodies floated. Right? And how in the fuck did they KNOW TO LOOK were he was, UNDER WATER? That fucking body may have well been on the moon. I don't know, this doesn't add up.

If McDonald can’t sell the development, Umpqua will hold an auction at the Deschutes County Courthouse on Dec. 2, according to the default notice.

Umpqua, citing privacy and pending litigation, declined to comment.

Yeah, I'll bet Umpqua has no comment, cuz they had this guy offed.

It's getting awful strange. Start combing the obits. Audia supposedly shot himself, a crime so easily done by someone else, a 2 year old could have planned it. McDonald's story just doesn't add up at all.

But you won't hear dink from The Bulletin. They won't even use words commonly associated with death or suicide. It's like they won't admit that these people are really dying.

Anyway, be concerned about your privacy. I'm not AT ALL convinced the Audia & McDonald deaths are suicides. There's a LOT of money being lost, and it would not surprise me in the least that deluded RE speculators would approach some seedier types to do a refi, to bridge the financing gap & keep a project alive.

People have started dying over RE in Bend, and you shouldn't just accept the word of the local media, who essentially won't even acknowledge that a death has even occurred.

Would they try to find commenters or, God Forbid, Blog Posters for negative dissemination of opinion? Fuck, who knows. The Bulletin won't even admit people are dead, for the love of Christ. Who the fuck is really running the show over there?

OK, moving on from Obvious Bank-Ordered Mob Hits, marge, The Goddess, posted the following:

July 08 99 Sold @ $284k median
June 08 114 sold @ $315k median
July 07 112 sold @ $342k median

That's a Big Negatory of 17% YoY. You may have noticed that the recent April $270K lows, were only mentioned in "hindsight".

Bend and Redmond home prices jump in May

Median home prices in Bend and Redmond rebounded in May to $303,000 and $245,000, respectively, according to the latest report from the Bratton Appraisal Group.

In Bend, May’s median price climbed more than 12 percent from its April level of $270,000, which had been the lowest median....

I would expect the Bulletin to stay true to form, as they did with the murder/suicide of McDonald, and not even acknowledge that the market has resumed its implosion.

Folks, it is AUGUST. Remember when I said Things Will Get Better? Well, I said that back in Feb, as Feb is ALWAYS The Bottom of Bends yearly cycle. And of course things DID get better, and even I was surprised by the inanity of the RE comments about how we'd turned the corner, because there'd been an UPTICK IN VOLUME.

Wow. Seriously, how STUPID does local media & their Lackey Ass RE "Experts" think we are? I am always amazed at this. Even marge has indicated that we are DOWN over last month, something rare in the ANALS of local RE history.

Here's more marge goodness:

Here's a new stat.
50 of the 99 sales were vacant while on the market.

514 of the 1600+ active listings are vacant. Yowser!!
4 of the 99 sold broke the $100 ppf.

Interesting that 1/3rd of the total listings are vacant, while a full half of the solds were vacant. Conclusion? VACATE your house if you want to sell.

I know. Just kidding. But for a comparison of where Bend is with respect to the rest of the US in regards to vacancies, I found this:

Yes, Bend is different. We have 33% vacancies, while the rest of the US endures the HORRORS of vacancy rates BELOW 3%.

I got this graph from, and they talk about working off the excesses of the boom, normalizing vacancy rates, and the like.

But they fail to acknowledge what I feel is the big BINARY SWITCH that has occurred: People have LOST THEIR CREDIT RATINGS.

This is The Thing we cannot UNDO. THIS is the demand killer. This is why the housing market has, for the foreseeable future, changed WHOLESALE from "where it was" pre-bubble.

There are MILLIONS, and there will be many MILLIONS MORE, who will simply be unable to purchase a home in the foreseeable future (10 years), because their FICO has gone bye-bye. Trying to sell to these people is like pushing on a string; no amount of price lowering will really "induce" these people into buying, they can't.

We're entering into a Serfdom economy. The Landed Set, and the Vast Rabble who rents forever. This will affect MILLIONS, many more than it does today. THIS is why housing will probably NOT return to normalcy in any relevant time period. This is why ANY purchase that could require a loan (car, appliance, etc) will not return to normal anytime soon.

We've crossed over into a state we haven't seen since The Great Depression. From Timmy:

So that means 10 months of vacant inventory and 33 months of occupied inventory.

I'm guessing the occupied houses are priced way too high.

From what I've seen lately, houses at $400k should be at $300k. Houses at $600k should be at $400k.

That's roughly speaking. Individual cases vary.

I'm seeing stuff bought at $290k in 2006 being priced at $400k. Get real, people. Or you won't sell.

This looks about right. Especially the last line.

Bend is different. Classic. Homes that are occupied ARE NOT SELLING. Fucking Classic! This is a perfect insight into the Psyche of Bend: Bendites Are Completely Deluded About Their Own Importance & Self Worth.

People still here can't sell to save their lives, people who've accepted their mortality & have moved out, actually are selling. Or maybe it's the banks REO that's selling.

What's truly awesome is that The Bulletin is shielding us from the Truth; Nobody Dies In Bend... they're just "found". Yeah! Finding someone is a Happy Event! Nothing ever goes wrong in Bend! From The Shire piece:

“It was Ron’s concept, and it was a good one,” Jan McDonald said. “Had the market not gone to where it went, it had the potential to be successful.”

The project — whose features include unique stonework, artificial thatched roofs, terraced gardens and a network of streams and ponds with a pathway leading to what’s called “The Ring Bearer’s Court” — captured media attention outside Central Oregon, including a December 2006 feature on BBC Radio.

The development drew about 6,000 visitors over two weekends in summer 2006 at the Central Oregon Builders Association’s Tour of Homes and has continued to attract curious onlookers, Meyers said.

Meyers and McDonald drew up a set of rules — similar to codes, covenants and restrictions that govern rules in many subdivisions — and called them the “Declaration of Interdependence.”

“We wanted to create a community — not just another subdivision,” Meyers said.


"Not just another subdivision".

"It was Ron's concept, and it was a good one".

"The development drew 6,000 visitors".

Somebody's DEAD, and The Bulletin is concerned about RESELLING THE THING. Always New Money. Gotta Get The Money. We Need New Investors.

That? Oh, that's nothing. That's just the burial of the last guy who owned this project. We're not sure what happened. He was found. That's all we know.

Now let's sign these papers. One last question: Are you dying for this project to succeed?