Sunday, August 3, 2008

Bank-Ordered Mob Hits Begin in Bend Oregon

Only in Bend.

I checked Busters (?) assertion that this rel="nofollow" thing exists on my template, and it does. Here is the low down from google (Which OWNS blogspot).

Preventing comment spam

1/18/2005 04:28:00 PM

If you're a blogger (or a blog reader), you're painfully familiar with people who try to raise their own websites' search engine rankings by submitting linked blog comments like "Visit my discount pharmaceuticals site." This is called comment spam, we don't like it either, and we've been testing a new tag that blocks it.

From now on, when Google sees the attribute (rel="nofollow") on hyperlinks, those links won't get any credit when we rank websites in our search results. This isn't a negative vote for the site where the comment was posted; it's just a way to make sure that spammers get no benefit from abusing public areas like blog comments, trackbacks, and referrer lists.


Q: How does a link change?
A: Any link that a user can create on your site automatically gets a new "nofollow" attribute. So if a blog spammer previously added a comment like Visit my discount pharmaceuticals site. That comment would be transformed to Visit my discount pharmaceuticals site.

Q: What types of links should get this attribute?
A: We encourage you to use the rel="nofollow" attribute anywhere that users can add links by themselves, including within comments, trackbacks, and referrer lists. Comment areas receive the most attention, but securing every location where someone can add a link is the way to keep spammers at bay.

Q: Should I put rel="nofollow" on the link to my comments page?
A: Probably not, because lots of interesting discussion can happen there. Also, if other people link to your comments page, a spider can follow that link and find any spam that's lurking on the comments page. The best places to add this attribute are the actual links that other people can create. So on this page, for instance, only the links within comments and the link immediately after "Posted by:" would get the rel="nofollow" attribute.

Q: Do individual bloggers need to do anything?
A: Probably not. Updating the software that generates these pages will ensure that most bloggers get these changes automatically.

Q: Is this a blog-only change?
A: No. We think any piece of software that allows others to add links to an author's site (including guestbooks, visitor stats, or referrer lists) can use this attribute. We're working primarily with blog software makers for now because blogs are such a common target. Got more questions? Email commentspam at google.com. As we spot more areas where spammers still abuse the Web, we'll contact the appropriate people in order to keep fighting comment spam. Matt Cutts, Google Software Engineer Jason Shellen, Blogger Program Manager

Update:
The reaction to nofollow has really been quite positive, especially considering how diverse the web is. We're delighted to announce more support for nofollow:

So there it is. I'm sort of ambivalent about it. I use a lot of links to sites like the Bulletin, or Cascade Business Buttbangers that I frankly DO NOT want to get a Page Rank increase from this blogs inbounds.

But I took out the nofollow's for now, anyway. I figure I can reinstate them if there is a rapid increase in spam.

And even more awesomeness from his High Busterness:

Homer has every fucking kind of spybot in the universe enabled in his code with all the widgets and gadgets he uses

Right now there are over 30 sites in my 'locale' to map all of homers spybots to NULL.

Oh boy. I can only assume he's talking about the little widgets embedded on the right side of the page.

These are little hunks of javascript that provide the craigslist RSS feed, the stock market widget stuff, and that's about it, to my knowledge. But if Buster can provide some sort of idea as to what these 30 "spybots" are, I'll take a look.

I assume he has editted his /etc/hosts (or similar) file to map these "off site" http calls to his local. I suppose that's one option, but I've noticed that when you unplug your net connection, and try to load a page with say, a Yahoo map on it, that it'll grind away forever trying to grab the content.

Anyway, I'm as paranoid as the next guy, and don't want my own data being gathered more than is necessary. But at some point you have to realize that using the Inner Nets at all requires some level of identification.

OK, I take privacy seriously, but enough geeky bullshit.

Things are indeed getting strange in Bend. We knew they would, but The Mob? From Buster:

Re: So that doctor Lynn McDonald killed himself on July 7th,... He was developer #2. First was Doug Sokol in Sisters, and third was Jay Audia. Things are getting ugly. * Real journalism would have a field day on BEND-OR, #1 over-priced RE in the USA, #1 RE-Developer per-capita 'suicide' rate, or death in unusual circumstance's. Well what do you expect the town is RAN by the BOSS-HOGG, the BULL&SORE are RAN by the BOSS-HOGG. In whose interest is any of this? Just sit on it for months or years, and then the Oregonian will revisit it when its long been over.

A more interesting thing would be the insurance angle, especially in these cases of accidental death. Quite often on these BIG RE-POOL deals the mob takes out insurance policy's, in event of loss of money, your-out, and they collect. It's always been the honorable thing to do.
It would be interesting if we could find out if DR. SHIRE who accidentally took a swim down Benham Falls, had lots of insurance by third partys??

And from the Shire article:

McDonald and his wife, Jan, had taken full ownership of the project in May with the hope they could sell it, Jan McDonald said Wednesday.

Jan McDonald is trying to sell the 14 developed lots, one house and additional land before the 6-acre property goes to public auction in December, she said.

The family owes Umpqua Bank $3.4 million on the project, according to the default notice.

The notice also names Meyers as a guarantor.


More from Buster:

We have a lot of newbies in the last few days. I completely agree with fresh-blood that the reason is that blog's are few in BEND, and places where people can say their mind are even fewer. Thus folks flock to this rock in the desert, and leave their mark. I have said many a times, that this is a mob town, and people will kill. It is essential for everyones safety to remain anonymous. Suicides will become all too common, and it will even become easier to disguise an act of aggression as an accident. There has NEVER been a better time to be anonymous in Bend.

Now maybe you can see why I start out this piece with some sort of geek-ridden crap about anonymity. Things really are starting to go in a weird direction.

This McDonald guy buys Meyers chunk of the Shire for an unknown amount in May, and not even 2 months later, jumps over Benham falls? Really? That's an awful long distance to cover from doubling up on REd, to committing hari kari, in such a short time.

And Jay Audia shot himself? This is another vulture job in the works that seems to have driven it's principle to his grave awful fast.

I don't know. These may have been perfectly legit suicides with 2 despondent dudes who couldn't bear the thought of going on without getting blowjobs on Volo's upper deck every Friday & Saturday night.

But Buster raises an interesting alternative: These are bank ordered mob hits.

There are people in the World who DO think that when you owe them money, and you don't pay, that your life is forfeit. And it'd be easy to do & get away with:

"Listen, you either pay up, or I will kill your wife, your kids, and everyone you know. And if you say one word, I kill 'em all. Now, you get me that money, or that's it. You either do the right thing, or we will. You savvy?"

Here's the quote from the Bulletins crack team of Investigative Journalists:

The Shire concept originated with Ron Meyers, who sold his share in the development for an unspecified amount to Dr. Lynn B. McDonald — a former emergency room physician at St. Charles Bend. McDonald died July 7.

Wow. So they're doing a piece on foreclosure at The Shire, and the owner DIED.

That's all. He just died, and they fail to mention HOW. Here's an interesting quote from helpfindthemissing.com:

Deschutes County Sheriff's Search and Rescue and U.S. Forest Service crews were scouring the Deschutes River and its banks late Sunday in the area of Benham Falls, southwest of Bend, after a Bend man's bicycle and pickup truck left in the area prompted concern that he might be lost in or near the river.

If they were checking the banks, they should try the refi department.

So this guy DROWN going over Benham Falls. An Emergency Room physician, heads out to LA PINE, gets MIXED UP, and goes over the falls?

Here's some more from The Bulletin piece covering his death:

He owned the Parrell-Sisters Mobile Home Park, which was placed in receivership in May, as well as unsold properties in The Shire subdivision in Bend.

“He was actually getting over some big hurdles in his life,” Stuman said. “The last e-mail I got from him on that subject was last Friday, and it was just kind of like ‘Let’s get the investors paid off, except me, and move on.’”

So he's trying to "move past" this thing & get his ducks in a row, he's got a wife & 16 year old twins, and he... KILLS HIMSELF?

I don't know. That sounds Real Strange. First, jumping off a waterfall is not a guaranteed suicide. A lot of times it's just a severe "hobbling".

And read the article: Doctor's body found below Benham Falls. Look for the word "died". Not there. Look for "suicide". Not there. "Killed", ditto. "Jumped", ditto. "Drown", same.

There's no mention of any sort of CAUSE OF DEATH. He was just FOUND. How was he found, in what state? Well, search for the word "dead", and of course you can't find it. But certainly, he "died", right? Well, you won't find that word in the piece, so possibly he survived.

His body was just FOUND, and there is no mention of him being "dead", or having "died", or having "drown", or having "jumped", or anything else. Fuck, maybe he jumped from an airplane, and his chute didn't open. Hard to say, cuz the Bulletin MAKES NO MENTION OF ANY FACT WITH RESPECT TO THIS MANS DEATH. None whatever. What do they say?

Two rescue boats and two divers discovered McDonald’s body under about 10 feet of water, less than one-quarter of a mile upriver from the Slough day-use area, Mills said.

Mills said he had known McDonald since he started working at the St. Charles Bend emergency room and called the doctor a “longtime friend to the Deschutes County Sheriff’s Office.”

Officials have no indication how or why McDonald got into the river, Mills said, and an investigation into the circumstances surrounding his death will continue today.

Yeah, investigations will continue, my ass. Yeah, like fucking OJ is going to find Nicole & Ron's killer if he has to work forever. Investigation, my fat ass.

Now, I'm not saying this guy did NOT commit suicide, but this is awful strange. If I wanted to kill some fucker for not paying me back, this would be one of your more obvious routes to go. Drown the bastard, then cram the body UNDER 10 FEET of water.

UNDER 10 FEET OF WATER?

I mean, What The Fuck? I thought bodies floated. Right? And how in the fuck did they KNOW TO LOOK were he was, UNDER WATER? That fucking body may have well been on the moon. I don't know, this doesn't add up.

If McDonald can’t sell the development, Umpqua will hold an auction at the Deschutes County Courthouse on Dec. 2, according to the default notice.

Umpqua, citing privacy and pending litigation, declined to comment.

Yeah, I'll bet Umpqua has no comment, cuz they had this guy offed.

It's getting awful strange. Start combing the obits. Audia supposedly shot himself, a crime so easily done by someone else, a 2 year old could have planned it. McDonald's story just doesn't add up at all.

But you won't hear dink from The Bulletin. They won't even use words commonly associated with death or suicide. It's like they won't admit that these people are really dying.

Anyway, be concerned about your privacy. I'm not AT ALL convinced the Audia & McDonald deaths are suicides. There's a LOT of money being lost, and it would not surprise me in the least that deluded RE speculators would approach some seedier types to do a refi, to bridge the financing gap & keep a project alive.

People have started dying over RE in Bend, and you shouldn't just accept the word of the local media, who essentially won't even acknowledge that a death has even occurred.

Would they try to find commenters or, God Forbid, Blog Posters for negative dissemination of opinion? Fuck, who knows. The Bulletin won't even admit people are dead, for the love of Christ. Who the fuck is really running the show over there?

OK, moving on from Obvious Bank-Ordered Mob Hits, marge, The Goddess, posted the following:

July 08 99 Sold @ $284k median
June 08 114 sold @ $315k median
July 07 112 sold @ $342k median


That's a Big Negatory of 17% YoY. You may have noticed that the recent April $270K lows, were only mentioned in "hindsight".

Bend and Redmond home prices jump in May

Median home prices in Bend and Redmond rebounded in May to $303,000 and $245,000, respectively, according to the latest report from the Bratton Appraisal Group.

In Bend, May’s median price climbed more than 12 percent from its April level of $270,000, which had been the lowest median....

I would expect the Bulletin to stay true to form, as they did with the murder/suicide of McDonald, and not even acknowledge that the market has resumed its implosion.

Folks, it is AUGUST. Remember when I said Things Will Get Better? Well, I said that back in Feb, as Feb is ALWAYS The Bottom of Bends yearly cycle. And of course things DID get better, and even I was surprised by the inanity of the RE comments about how we'd turned the corner, because there'd been an UPTICK IN VOLUME.

Wow. Seriously, how STUPID does local media & their Lackey Ass RE "Experts" think we are? I am always amazed at this. Even marge has indicated that we are DOWN over last month, something rare in the ANALS of local RE history.

Here's more marge goodness:

Here's a new stat.
50 of the 99 sales were vacant while on the market.

514 of the 1600+ active listings are vacant. Yowser!!
4 of the 99 sold broke the $100 ppf.

Interesting that 1/3rd of the total listings are vacant, while a full half of the solds were vacant. Conclusion? VACATE your house if you want to sell.

I know. Just kidding. But for a comparison of where Bend is with respect to the rest of the US in regards to vacancies, I found this:

Yes, Bend is different. We have 33% vacancies, while the rest of the US endures the HORRORS of vacancy rates BELOW 3%.

I got this graph from seekingalpha.com, and they talk about working off the excesses of the boom, normalizing vacancy rates, and the like.

But they fail to acknowledge what I feel is the big BINARY SWITCH that has occurred: People have LOST THEIR CREDIT RATINGS.

This is The Thing we cannot UNDO. THIS is the demand killer. This is why the housing market has, for the foreseeable future, changed WHOLESALE from "where it was" pre-bubble.

There are MILLIONS, and there will be many MILLIONS MORE, who will simply be unable to purchase a home in the foreseeable future (10 years), because their FICO has gone bye-bye. Trying to sell to these people is like pushing on a string; no amount of price lowering will really "induce" these people into buying, they can't.

We're entering into a Serfdom economy. The Landed Set, and the Vast Rabble who rents forever. This will affect MILLIONS, many more than it does today. THIS is why housing will probably NOT return to normalcy in any relevant time period. This is why ANY purchase that could require a loan (car, appliance, etc) will not return to normal anytime soon.

We've crossed over into a state we haven't seen since The Great Depression. From Timmy:

So that means 10 months of vacant inventory and 33 months of occupied inventory.

I'm guessing the occupied houses are priced way too high.

From what I've seen lately, houses at $400k should be at $300k. Houses at $600k should be at $400k.

That's roughly speaking. Individual cases vary.

I'm seeing stuff bought at $290k in 2006 being priced at $400k. Get real, people. Or you won't sell.

This looks about right. Especially the last line.

Bend is different. Classic. Homes that are occupied ARE NOT SELLING. Fucking Classic! This is a perfect insight into the Psyche of Bend: Bendites Are Completely Deluded About Their Own Importance & Self Worth.

People still here can't sell to save their lives, people who've accepted their mortality & have moved out, actually are selling. Or maybe it's the banks REO that's selling.

What's truly awesome is that The Bulletin is shielding us from the Truth; Nobody Dies In Bend... they're just "found". Yeah! Finding someone is a Happy Event! Nothing ever goes wrong in Bend! From The Shire piece:

“It was Ron’s concept, and it was a good one,” Jan McDonald said. “Had the market not gone to where it went, it had the potential to be successful.”

The project — whose features include unique stonework, artificial thatched roofs, terraced gardens and a network of streams and ponds with a pathway leading to what’s called “The Ring Bearer’s Court” — captured media attention outside Central Oregon, including a December 2006 feature on BBC Radio.

The development drew about 6,000 visitors over two weekends in summer 2006 at the Central Oregon Builders Association’s Tour of Homes and has continued to attract curious onlookers, Meyers said.

Meyers and McDonald drew up a set of rules — similar to codes, covenants and restrictions that govern rules in many subdivisions — and called them the “Declaration of Interdependence.”

“We wanted to create a community — not just another subdivision,” Meyers said.

The Bulletin is STILL SELLING THE PROJECT.

"Not just another subdivision".

"It was Ron's concept, and it was a good one".

"The development drew 6,000 visitors".

Somebody's DEAD, and The Bulletin is concerned about RESELLING THE THING. Always New Money. Gotta Get The Money. We Need New Investors.

That? Oh, that's nothing. That's just the burial of the last guy who owned this project. We're not sure what happened. He was found. That's all we know.

Now let's sign these papers. One last question: Are you dying for this project to succeed?

306 comments:

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tim said...

>>"The development drew 6,000 visitors".

Delusional Goofball World should have charged admission to people who wanted to see the make-believe hobbits.

And as for my 33-month occupied inventory, I hope it goes without saying that those calculations are being based on SUMMER sales. What will the numbers look like in winter, I wonder?

Anonymous said...

Great Rant Homer, this AM I put a 1/2 dozen very good articles on the economy, you should check them out, on your prior blog.

It ain't looking good for the US dollar. Not good at all.

Anonymous said...

I can't understand where you got the idea that the Source (SORE) is allied with the real estate / developer / builder axis. Do you ever actually read it? - Arron or HBM

*

First of all HBM does post here, I can tell by his last post a few weeks, when he responded to my question, I put enough triggers in, and he responded with enough code-words that I knew it was him.

Yes, HBM I read the SORE, in fact I read every issue cover to cover cuz, it free, in fact I don't read the BULL, unless its in front of me. I have never paid a nickel for the BULL nor will I ever.

Now that the WHOLE fucking charade is collapsing, in steps the SORE with the assertion they had no part of the hustle, well that's probably reason #1 why 'powers' have blocked the ability to search all prior comments, cuz simply too much has been written over the last two years too prove this assertion, I'll not even waste bits ( electrical 1/0 binary states ).

THE SORE is a siamese twin of the BULL they share a common asshole, name boss-hogg.

The SORE's job is constant events, street closures, and keeping the tourists entertained all year round, ...


In a town of cunts & pussy, the BULL is CUNT, and the SORE is pussy ( liberal ), that said, like CHOMSKY says in "manufacturing consent", all diametric ends of the philosophical continuum are very much controlled by the same party.

Anonymous said...

I thought it was marge, so was there a riot yesterday at the picnic?

OWW2 - Oregon Sewage World #2??

A status report from any gnomes on the ground would be most entertaining??

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Bend athletes transfer competition to business

By Kimberly Bowker •
The Bulletin
Published: August 03. 2008 4:00AM PST

Professional snowboarder and mountain biker April Lawyer, 33, moved to Bend from California in 2004 and opened Vanilla Urban Threads in The Old Mill District. “I wanted it to be successful because I was a successful businessperson and not a successful athlete.”

Steve Larsen, 38, a professional cyclist and triathlete from Bend, started his real estate business, Steve Larsen Properties, last year. “I was relatively well-known in the community with my sports background, but one of the things I wanted ... was to establish my credibility in this arena.”

Fred Boos was surprised when he attended his first house party in Bend. In the Bay Area, where he previously lived, Boos remembered being the only former athlete at a gathering.

Not here. He recalled meeting Olympians, world champion rock climbers and professional bike racers at the Bend event.

“Everyone is a former athlete here,” Boos said. “It’s like, ‘Which Olympics did you go to?’”

Boos — a cycling silver medal winner in the 1992 Olympic trials in Minnesota and a member of the U.S. National Team in road and track cycling for 10 years — moved to Bend in 2000. He relocated to raise a family and enjoy the outdoor recreation that Central Oregon offers.

Boos is among numerous athletes who moved to the region for its quality of life and extended their passion for competition into the business world.

“Bend is an entrepreneurial place and people have that pioneering spirit here,” said Boos, 41.

Boos founded the concept for RocketBux Inc. in 2003. The company offers technology that advertises and markets on cell phones, sending coupons and mobile bar codes to phones that can be scanned at stores for immediate discounts. The company has just opened its fourth office in Richmond, Va.

“People I run into here tend to be very highly motivated persons because they are choosing what they want in life,” Boos said. “They move her to embrace life and not just grind out a job.”

Boos continues to keep a strong leg in cycling. He teaches spin classes at the Athletic Club of Bend and competes in a race every year in Hawaii.

April Lawyer, 33, was a professional snowboarder and mountain biker. She moved to Bend in 2004 and opened Vanilla Urban Threads the following year.

“I love living in Bend,” she said. “I think it’s such an awesome place, but what I have recognized is that it is hard to make a good living here if you’re not an athlete, or own your business, or have an extensive college education.”

After receiving a silver medal in the X Games and competing for 10 years in national and World Cup mountain biking events, Lawyer witnessed a crash that left her friend with a broken neck.

“I thought, ‘I’ve been doing this for almost 10 years and I have been very successful, but someday I might get injured,’” she said.

Looking toward her future, Lawyer retired from professional athletics and opened the store in The Old Mill District.

“Now I have the best of both worlds,” Lawyer said. “I can go hop on my bike and play with the boys and go be in the store and talk with the girls.”

There are many business owners with athletic backgrounds in Central Oregon, Lawyer said, and she thinks the trend will increase in the future.

“I think it’s going to continue to grow because people have moved here for the lifestyle,” she said.

For Lawyer, one challenge of opening a business was establishing herself as a business owner and not relying on her background as an athlete. “I wanted it to be successful because I was a successful businessperson and not a successful athlete,” she said.

Steve Larsen, 38, owner and principal broker of Steve Larsen Properties, experienced a similar desire when he started his real estate brokerage business last year.

“I was relatively well-known in the community with my sports background, but one of the things I wanted to do right from the start was to establish my credibility in this arena,” he said.

Larsen competed professionally for 15 years in cycling, mountain biking and triathlons. He placed first in the Ironman triathlon in 2001 at Lake Placid, N.Y., and placed ninth in the Ironman World Championship the same year in Kona, Hawaii.

Like other athletes, Larsen moved here to raise his children and continue to participate in the biking and skiing community.

“It was a good professional choice and it was a long-term lifestyle choice as well,” he said.

Adam Bledsoe, co-owner of The Loft of Bend with his brother, Drew Bledsoe, moved to town in 2005. The new private wine and social club is located in the 919 Bond building downtown. Drew Bledsoe also is a partner in 11 Roasters Coffee Co. in Bend.

“Athletes in general have so much in common and network amongst themselves,” he said. “The majority of people I’ve met in Bend I have met on the basketball court or the golf course. I think it’s a common thread that people here share,” he said.

Adam Bledsoe, 30, played five years as a quarterback at the University of Colorado and Western Oregon University and one year in Europe with the Ancona Dolphins. Drew Bledsoe, 36, played in the NFL for 14 seasons with the New England Patriots, Buffalo Bills and Dallas Cowboys.

Adam Bledsoe, like other athletes, thinks there are many similarities between the world of sports and operating a business.

“A lot of athletes, especially ones that have made it to a high level, are ultra-competitive,” he said. “When they can no longer play their sport, they find other avenues to compete, and business is a very natural environment for competition.”

Boos, of RocketBux, said athletes have the commitment that business requires.

“Athletes have a dedication and work ethic that crosses right over into business,” he said.

Kiki Cutter, 59, was born in Bend and competed on the 1968 Olympic alpine ski team and was the first American to win a slalom World Cup event in Oslo, Norway, the same year. She moved back to Bend in 2001 and, in 2003, founded Cutter Communications Inc., publisher of Bend Living, Bend Business Review and Bend Living Home magazines.

She credits her success as a businesswoman to what she learned in athletics.

“Business and athletics are very much the same,” Cutter said. “You get beaten up and you get right back up and try again. You learn so much from athletics and apply that to the business world. You learn how to win and lose, and you learn to keep striving for what you want.”

Cutter, like the other athletes, had previous entrepreneurial experience before opening her Central Oregon business. She previously owned Ski Events Associates in Aspen, Colo., before returning to Bend.

Lawyer, of Vanilla, said that as a child she operated a ministore outside her bedroom window.

“My parents reminded me of this when I opened Vanilla. They said, ‘I knew you would do something like this after you stopped racing,’” Lawyer said.

Before opening her store in Bend, Lawyer started her own clothing company and managed a sports shop in Big Bear, Calif.

Larsen operated various retail stores before he joined the commercial brokerage industry after he retired from professional sports in 2003.

“Primarily, first and foremost, as a pro athlete, you develop a wide-ranging skill set,” he said. “You have to understand marketing and sales. You have to understand how to set goals and obtain them.”

For Boos, who raced with Larsen as a teenager, having a desire to overcome obstacles is a trait he embraces in sports and business.

“As an athlete, for me, I always look for a difficult challenge,” Boos said, “and having your own business and doing something great with it is a big challenge.”

Anonymous said...

33-month occupied inventory, I hope it goes without saying that those calculations are being based on SUMMER sales. What will the numbers look like in winter, I wonder?

*

Shit TT, we estimate that Madras ( YARROW, ... ) has 20yr, Priny over 30yr, you put in brasada/prong and all the double-siberian-STD, and it goes 50 yr at current velocity of flip.

{ Remember almost all this remote-siberian-STD deer-mice fodder is BROOKS owned. }

The mean inventory re-cycle has got to put close to ten years in this three county region.

A lot of GOOD money got wasted, and thus the reason for ALL the deaths were going to see past&future.

There is NO fucking possible coup of re-coup. All is fucked.

That said, a little home, near Drake Park, will still be worth around 4X when its all over, of course our 4X is going south of $40k/yr, every-day.

Go read the filipino report, on the end of the last blog of homme I posted on OIL&theDOLLAR. The party is over, and its going to hit BEND in an unbelievable way. We're a town 99% dependent upon cheap liquid energy.

We're a desert Island, with a 99% dependent 'cargo cult' population, and the cargo soon isn't going to be coming.

Anonymous said...

"Bank-ordered mob hits"? Sorry, that's just paranoid bullshit. Tinfoil hat stuff.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

“Everyone is a former athlete here,” Boos said. “It’s like, ‘Which Olympics did you go to?’”

I'm gald The Bulletin has finally decided to expose the True Nature of Bend:

We're all of us current & former Olympic Athletes running hyper-successful businesses.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

“Primarily, first and foremost, as a pro athlete, you develop a wide-ranging skill set,” he said. “You have to understand marketing and sales. You have to understand how to set goals and obtain them.”

I have to admit, The Olympics are far more about marketing than they used to be, but I didn't know they were teaching it to the participants.

foz said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Tinfoil hat stuff.

Can I borrow your hat? Mine is STUFFED 10 FEET UNDERWATER DOWNSTREAM FROM BENHAM FALLS.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Great Rant Homer, this AM I put a 1/2 dozen very good articles on the economy, you should check them out, on your prior blog.

Yup, I saw those. I usually go look at comments that happen early Sunday. Good stuff. Folks should go have a look, or feel free to Copy/Paste them here...

Anonymous said...

Bend athletes transfer competition to business

By Kimberly Bowker •
The Bulletin
->

Thats BULLtalk, aka BULLshit, how about english HOMEE?

"Lucky Bend athletes, transfer prior winnings to Specialty Stores in Bend"

"Bledsoe, one of the more lucky rich athletes to come to Bend in years, has a new $50k/member cigar club next to our own D&D, world famous for $1 hand-jobs".

{ Specialy Store, is a code-word for an out of own sucker who comes to Bend with loot, to start his own business, which usually is based on the assumption of economic cleansing of the next rich sucker coming to Bend. A flawed ponzi scheme, in Bend only the originator wins. }

tim said...

I didn't know we were all athletes. I mean, I knew I was a gold medalist rhythmic gymnast, but I didn't know the rest of you had medals too.

Anonymous said...

The Olympics are far more about marketing than they used to be, but I didn't know they were teaching it to the participants.

*

Getting on the training team is about marketing yourself.

It takes an alpha parent to get a child on track for this kind of stuff.

In China the State, starts kids in camps that parents kill to get kids into, and they keep the kids for 20 years. That's who were competing with.

In the west to raise up the ranks, you got to start early, to compete with the communist countries.

I think Bledsoe and all the LUCKY athletes ( you have to be lucky to get rich, and not hurt in that biz ), know that 'stars' in their biz, are no different than hollywood, and all managed by the same people.

Everybody in these businesses have a clear understanding of PR&MARKETING.

That said, how do you transfer it to Bend?

Ok, lets take a step back. Yarrow, Pronghorn, Tetherow, Brasada all come to mind, they got beautiful offices downtown to market, and beautiful blonds to PR, and still complete FUCKING failure. Know PR&MARKETING and having TONS of money is NO guarantee to success in BEND-OREGON.

Now YOU KNOW what the piece today on BLESOE is, its like the Jan 08, AUDIA piece, in BEND when you make the move to spend your money your a hero, a real smart guy. This is what the BULL is doing, in a few years when BLEDSOE has lost everything, they'll be not a fucking peep about him.

In summary the best marketing & PR that money can buy, even taxpayer funded, didn't help old HOLLERN keep humpty-dumpty from falling off the wall. If boss-hogg can't squeeze cash out of cali's anymore, how in the fuck are lucky ducky football boyz?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Another Day In Paradise:

Hot & cold running Olympic Athletes running incredibly successful businesses, no one EVER dies, RE always goes Up.

Marge said...

Bend, Oregon becomes a paradise, to hide from world insanity, albeit growing your own food in green-houses, carrying polluted water from the dry deschutes river, and guarding your solar panels with M-16's.

I did move here for some of those reasons. Hiding from insanity and growing food. Unfortunately the growing season sucks and the insanity has moved to Bend. Getting a decent solar system is nearly impossible. My neighbors have been working on a large system for 2 years, gone through 2 solar cotractors that never show to get them off the grid. The County inspectors have made them tear off the panels twice to change the fasteners. I think the County is in cohots with CEC.
We can't stay completely anonymous or we won't survive what is coming. Some of us need to stick together and communaly put our heads on as to how we can add to each others lives WTSHTF.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Ok, lets take a step back. Yarrow, Pronghorn, Tetherow, Brasada all come to mind...

Ummm. I can't abide all your poo-pooing of these fine developments without raising this FACT:

Yarrow sold a house out there.

That lowers their saturation point from infinity, clear down to 6,000 years or so., which is a pretty decent improvement.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Hot & cold running Olympic Athletes running incredibly successful businesses, no one EVER dies, RE always goes Up.

And I forgot:

387 days of sunshine every year.

Anonymous said...

Getting a decent solar system is nearly impossible.

*

I have gone into detail many times here in this forum on how to build and maintain your own off the grid solar system.

I would NEVER suggest contractors. In Oregon a limited voltage system ( below 110 Volts ) doesn't require a standard electrical license.

DO IT ALL YOURSELF.

I would NOT connect, or back connect to the grid, as soon as you connect to the 110V system, then you must get the GOVERNMENT INVOLVED.

I would NOT hire a contractor, any MORON can install solar-systems, and thus you get what you see, e.g. incompetent contractors.

The general issue with installation is that folks use auto-part, k-mart connections for roof panels and poor grounding. Generally you want to use air-craft or marine quality electrical connectors and braces if you want your roof system to pass code inspect, and to last your lifetime.

If your 'contractor' buys panels on the internet, and then gets his HW from A-BOY, there is an excellent chance the code-boys at city-hall will red-tag the installation, and if I were an inspector I would also.


I have written many times in this forum over the years, on exactly how to setup a self sustaining off the grid electrical system. Perhaps if google hadn't been blacking-out our comments that shit could be found.

There are many books on solar-systems, there is no reason that a person can't build their own system for less than $500, and be off the grid for basic needs.

On the issue of installation, I personally don't like roof installation, like the title-post says above, m-16 guarding your panel, a good panel today is $300, and that could go to $3,000 once the energy shortage hits, thus your advertising to every criminal in the hood you got GOLD on your roof.

I usually just put my panel(s) next to a tree in yard out of site, when I feel like going 'off-grid'. For testing every once in awhile, and besides keeping your system portable, is cool for camping or RV'ing.

If you want to do it right on a roof out of site, then get your HW from a reliable aircraft supplier like "aircraft spruce' that sells HW made to last, and electrical connectors that will be fault free for a lifetime.

IN SUMMARY get your system setup today, and put it away, that way you can always steal a battery from your non-usable car, if you have panels and charge-controllers sitting around, and you can make your own power.

Basic power usage to me is enough current for a water-pump to pump water from a tank through a filter, lights for reading at night, and enough current to control the solenoid on your propane fridge. You don't need a whole lot of power to live. Maybe power for a computer if your wish, or for the portable phone.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Oversupply and Compression: How the Median House Price Will Fall from $215K to $70K (July 30, 2008)


I am constantly amazed (yes, I know I shouldn't be) by how many otherwise intelligent people expect housing to "recover" next year. I shouldn't be surprised, of course, because fantasy and hope are the key traits of all post-bubble busts.

Thus we had analyst after analyst in 2001 and 2002 calling "the bottom" in the Nasdaq, even as it fell from 5,000 to 3,000 to 2,000 and then finally to 1,000.

In a similar fashion, we now have a nearly universal belief that oil and commodities have "topped out" and the recent decline is a new trend. Happy days are here again, oil is heading back to $75/barrel, hoo-ha!

(NOTE: Before you jump on the "oil will just get cheaper and cheaper now" bandwagon, I heartily recommend the new Readers Journal essay by Portugal-based correspondent José de Freitas: Why the Trend in Oil Is Up.)

In a similar fashion, we should not be fooled that a brief market reaction is the start of a new trend, i.e. "housing will soon bottom." On the contrary, I predict the median price of a house in the U.S. will fall from $215,000 all the way down to $70,000.

According to the National Association of Realtors, the median home price was $215,100 in June 2008. These data sources suggest the median is around $230,00 and the average around $300,000: US: Median Price of Houses Sold including Land Price and US: Average Price of Houses Actually Sold.

Whatever number you pick, I predict a 2/3 decline from here, based on these long-term trends and historical patterns:

1. A further 30% decline is required to bring rents and the cost of ownership back into the long-term historical range/ratio. The only reason to buy a house/dwelling which costs far more than renting the equivalent residence is the investment belief that appreciation of the property will exceed (after all the tax benefits are calculated in, etc.) the appreciation of other asset classes. (Note: the ratio varies depending on locale, but in general it is still out of whack from the mean.)

In other words, it's an investment decision, not a decision about owning a place to live. If real estate proves to be a poor investment which only depreciates year after year, this belief (currently a near-religious belief of stupendous power in the U.S., based on the past 25 years of debt-fueled speculative frenzy), then housing will decline back to the historical ratio.

Now if rents are set to rise 30% above inflation, then the argument could be made that housing will not decline; but with wages in a long-term decline and the economy souring, what rise in income is foreseeable which would fuel a rise in rents? It is more likely that rents will decline in most markets as well, further pressuring the decline in housing values.

There are other reasons to believe buying will become ever more unattractive compared to renting:

2. The cost of money will rise for a generation. The two keys to appreciation in real estate are: cheap, easily available money/mortgages, and a highly liquid market in which any property can be quickly bought/sold.

Guess what's disappeared and won't be coming back: cheap, easy money and a liquid market. If you are fearful that you can't sell the house you're about to buy, then it's a Capital Trap you will want to avoid.

And if money becomes tight again, then a 20% down will be standard once again--and in a recession which has strangled credit, asset values and the economy, how many people will have saved up that much cash? How many will be willing to sink all that cash into a Capital Trap? Relatively few compared to the hordes who "qualified" in the era of liar-loans, no-down, interest-only loans, etc.)

3. Oversupply and vast overbuilding render the market illiquid. With almost 20 million empty dwellings (of which perhaps 4-5 million are true "vacation/second homes") and huge numbers of empty rooms in existing housing, the number of homes for sale will exceed the number of qualified buyers for a long time to come.

PIMCO's Bill Gross went on record recently suggesting 1 million homes should be dynamited; good idea, Bill, but that still leaves 15 million empty dwellings.

Please don't tell me about population growth: Immigration is already slowing because jobs are drying up, and household size in the U.S. can easily rise, enabling more people to live in the same number of dwellings.

The overbuilding was not the result of meeting demand for housing, it was all about meeting the demand for speculative vehicles. Once the speculators are slowly roasted year after year by declining prices, then eventually nobody will be thinking that housing is a "great investment." Once that belief system has been eradicated via everyone who acted on it being destroyed financially, then housing will once again be viewed as shelter rather than a speculative vehicle for investment or "get rich quick" deals.

I am continually astonished by the number of people who believe a house which tripled in price and has now fallen a mere 20% is "cheap." As I have written before, there are only two valid reasons for buying a dwelling, and appreciation is not one of them:

A. It's cheaper to buy than rent

B. You can make money on Day One by buying the dwelling and renting it out at local market rate rents.

Both carry this important caveat: you can afford to let your Capital be Trapped in an illiquid market for years. If you might have other uses for the cash, then it would unwise in the extreme to trap it in illiquid real estate.

4. Price-Earnings Compression occurs when risk re-enters a market. This is a well-known element in the stock market: in good times, a company earning a dollar per share will be valued at $25/share--a PE (price-earnings ratio) of 25. That is called PE expansion, and it results from euphoric belief that the economy will forever enable ever higher profits.

In recessions, losses reinject risk back into speculative and investment calculations, and PEs contract/compress. Thus the company may still be earning $1/share, but in a real recessionary trough it will be valued at a mere $8/share--a third of its euphoria-"real estate/tech/China/etc. only goes up" valuation.

Real estate is not immune to price-earnings compression. If a property keeps declining in value, then the ratio of its net income (from rents) to its value will shrink. Thus in a rising market a property might well be valued at $500,000 based on its rental income, but in a declining market its value may be compressed to $300,000 even if rents haven't dropped a dime. All the risks get priced in--risk that rents might drop, that vacancies may rise, etc.--and buyers turn wary and cautious.

5. Other investments will outshine real estate and money will continue to flow away from housing. If you could earn 10% on your cash, why sink it into a risky illiquid market in housing? Recall that real estate is based on leverage; if you put 20% down to buy a property and it drops 10% in value, if you have to sell you will lose 75% of your initial cash: 50% due to the decline in value and another 25% in transaction costs (realtors fees, closing costs, transaction taxes, etc.)

A mere 10% decline in a $500,000 house wipes out half the value of a $100,000 (20%) down payment. Leverage really destroys wealth quickly on the way down.

As interest rates rise globally, just parking your money in cash earning a nice return will look better than risking it in depreciating illiquid real estate.

Risk cannot be eradicated, it can only be obscured.

6. The inexorable rise in interest rates (i.e. the cost of money) will compress property values by as much as 50%. The reason is simple: if the average buyer can only afford (say) $1,500 a month for a mortgage and property taxes, then the value of the house will rise or fall in direct correlation with mortgage rates, i.e. what the buyer can afford.

If rates plummet, as they did in the past decade, then the buyer can afford (say) a $300,000 home for that $1,500/month at 5%. Magically, valuations rise to these levels. Conversely, when rates rise to 10%, the $1,500/month only enables the purchase of a $150,000 home--and so prices decline to what buyers can afford to pay.

This is simple supply and demand correlated to the cost of money, which is correlated to its own supply and demand and the level of risk.

Put another way: if you're lending money, and real estate has been declining for years, how much risk premium do you need to bury your bank's capital in a capital trap? As the recognition of risk rises, so do mortgage rates. And as risk rises, long-term fixed-rate mortgages vanish, effectively saddling the buyer with the risks that money will continue rising in cost. That adds another reason for buyers to hold off on sinking their capital and income into an illiquid property.

7. Residences near core jobs, transit and walkable neighborhoods will decline less than housing far from jobs and transit. Those houses will fall to zero value. Thus for median (and average) prices to fall to $70,000, we don't need a market overwhelmingly priced below $100,000--we only need millions of houses valued at near zero.

As readers of Jim Kunstler know, the suburban/exurban environment was based entirely on the presumption of endless cheap oil for transportation and commuting. Now that Peak Oil is cutting away at supply even as global growth catapults demand, then that presumption is no longer valid. There may well be oil available for decades, but it will no longer be cheap.

Demographically, there are many reasons for people to migrate from exurbs and suburbs to city cores. Cost of commuting is only one; another is health care. As hospitals and urgent care facilities close, aging Baby Boomers who want access to care must move back into cities and large towns.

Cities will remain comparatively job rich environments, and so staying close enough to get to work is another reason for migration to urban cores. Towns with a good hospital, clean water and some core of jobs (a college, a hydro-electric plant, farming, etc.) will attract residents who don't want to be stranded in an exurb graced with an abandoned strip mall and little else.

The poorer you are, the less money you have for cars, gasoline, etc., and so lower-income people have excellent motivations not to be warehoused in outlying worthless communities which are not served by rail or any public transit and which offer little or no social services (free clinics, libraries, parks, etc.).

These are all reasons to expect increasing numbers of residents per household and a reversal of the trend toward one-person households. As I have tirelessly proven in the case of the 2001 dot-bomb exodus from San Francisco and the Bay Area, cities can expand or contract in population by huge margins while their housing stock remains more or less constant. People move back home, people rent out an empty room, and so on. A 100,000 people can move in or out of a city without adding or subtracting a single dwelling.

Thus we can foresee housing and rents actually stabilizing in urban zones and towns with ready access to water, nearby cropland/food, jobs, transit, walkable neighborhoods, energy (think Oklahoma, Texas, locales with coal, large hydro-electric dams or huge solar or wind arrays, etc.) and some medical care (even the rationed sort will be welcome if the alternative is none at all). Areas with few to none of these assets will see their housing stock sink to near-zero in value.

Supply and demand will eventually rule, regardless of government bailouts, backstops, interventions, etc. There are at least 15 million surplus dwellings in the U.S., an overhang which will not disappear in a few quarters or years. Millions will lose value as they were built in an undesirable locale, while the rest will re-set according to the demand/supply/risk calculations based on the cost of money, demographics, Peak Oil and a number of other trends (scarcity of jobs and healthcare, reduction in government services, etc.)

Real estate, bonds and stocks rose during the generation-long trend of ever-lower interest rates from 1982-2005. Now that trend has reversed and cash will outperform all three assets which depend on ever-lower rates and ever-easier money to appreciate in value.

It's a shocking conclusion, I know: a house will return to being shelter, not an investment vehicle for staggering wealth generation.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

7. Residences near core jobs, transit and walkable neighborhoods will decline less than housing far from jobs and transit. Those houses will fall to zero value. Thus for median (and average) prices to fall to $70,000, we don't need a market overwhelmingly priced below $100,000--we only need millions of houses valued at near zero.

Someone on here stated this as well.

Now, who was it?

Anonymous said...

"Yes, Bend is different. We have 33% vacancies, while the rest of the US endures the HORRORS of vacancy rates BELOW 3%."

the 33% is of houses listed for sale. the 3% is of all houses. not comparable.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

the 33% is of houses listed for sale. the 3% is of all houses. not comparable.

You have the overall vacancy rate in Bend?

Think it's higher or lower than the national AVG?

Yeah, I'm betting it's many multiples of the nat avg.

foz said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
foz said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

In case anyone missed it; Case-Schiller drop last week, the largest ever recorded:

S&P: Home prices drop by record 15.8 pct. in May
Tuesday July 29, 11:22 am ET
By J.W. Elphinstone, AP Business Writer
Private housing index shows home prices dropping by record amount nationwide in May

NEW YORK (AP) -- Home prices tumbled by the steepest rate ever in May, according to a closely watched housing index released Tuesday, as the housing slump deepened nationwide.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 20-city index dropped by 15.8 percent in May compared with a year ago, a record decline since its inception in 2000. The 10-city index plunged 16.9 percent, its biggest decline in its 21-year history.

No city in the Case-Shiller 20-city index saw price gains in May, the second straight month that's happened. The monthly indices have not recorded an overall home price increase in any month since August 2006.

Home values have fallen 18.4 percent since the 20-city index's peak in July 2006.

Nine metropolitan cities -- Las Vegas, Miami, Phoenix, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Wash., Portland, Ore., and Washington, D.C. -- posted record declines in May. And the value of housing in Detroit is now lower than it was in 2000.

But a possible bright spot in an otherwise dismal report, seven metros -- Tampa, Fla., Boston, Detroit, Minneapolis, New York, Dallas and Atlanta -- showed smaller annual declines.

Las Vegas recorded the worst drop, with prices plunging 28.4 percent in the month. Miami came in a close second, with prices down 28.3 percent.

Charlotte, N.C., posted the smallest drop at 0.2 percent. Until April, the North Carolina city had been the last metro still showing price gains.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Interesting letter in the washingtonpost.com comments (found this via patrick.net):

Open letter to Joe, Okay, so you were right! I thought you'd lost your mind
when you sold your modest house next door in 2005 and bought a $1.2M mcmansion,
with no money down. I thought you were crazy when you used the proceeds from
the sale of your house to go to Europe, buy two expensive vehicles, new
furniture and put in a swimming pool in your new house. In the meantime, my
wife and I pinched our pennies, socking money away in our 401Ks, saving for a
vacation and continued to drive our ancient cars. I felt vindicated when the
real estate market collapsed and your mcmansion fell in "value" to
$800K and the interest rate on your ARM went up to 10%, while my fixed rate
stayed at 6%.

My, how the tide has turned! Thanks to our elected officials, I will be helping
you keep your mcmansion with the granite countertops and all the other
trappings of wealth. You'll get a reduction on the principle of your
mortgage and a lowered interest rate. The only way my mortgage principle will
go lower is if I pay it down; and, of course, interest rates have gone up so I
can't refinance for a lower fixed rate. By the way, your old house went
into foreclosure last month. I don't think the folks who bought it at that
inflated price ever meant to live in it and when they couldn't find a
renter to cover the cost of the mortgage, they decided to let it go back to the
bank. Of course, that meant the value of my house dropped quite a bit more.
Don't worry though -- Since we've been diligently paying down the principle
on our house, we still have some equity left.

I sure do wish I could get the principle on my house magically reduced and
(prayer) a lower interest rate too! That would give me some financial relief
-- paying for my daughter's college tuition and health insurance would
certainly be easier. (She turned 22 this past May, so I've had to pick up
the tab for her health care.) Since I didn't overspend, can afford my
mortgage and saved my money, I won't qualify for those "breaks" my
tax dollars will be funding.

Speaking of those tax dollars, I've been writing letters to our elected
representatives to fund new roads and rebuild our crumbling infrastructure.
Have you seen the cost of college tuition lately? How about health care, the
cost of food and I don't want to even think about gas prices! Too bad our
tax dollars will be paying for your mcmansion. If projects to help the rest of
us are to be funded, our elected officials will have to raise our taxes, and
frankly, I'm just not "feeling" a tax increase. Our elected officials have
mismanaged too much of my hard earned money, already.

In addition to giving you breaks on your mcmansion, I did hear that the new
Foreclosure Prevention Bill will "put a floor on the price of housing".
I guess my son, who just recently graduated from college, won't be able to
buy a house after all. He's staying at home with us and saving his money.
We'd hoped that house prices would continue to deflate, reaching a level
commiserate with incomes in this area. He's making a nice salary, but still
can't afford the prices. Yes, I do understand that first time homebuyers
will get up to $7500 in breaks, but read the fine print, besides that small
amount won't even cover closing costs.

Well, Joe, I just wanted to let you know you were right! I was dumb for playing
by the rules, saving my money and max'ing out on my 401K. I should have
taken your lead, purchased a mcmansion and spent every penny I earned. Think of
all the fun I could have had! Nice cars, granite countertops, furniture,
clothes, vacations...wow...and, the "government" picking up the tab.
I can't wait for the next bubble. YOU ARE THE MAN!

foz said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

*****DESPERATE - MUST SELL - MAKE OFFER***** (By Barnes & Nobel)
Reply to: hous-780342876@craigslist.org
Date: 2008-08-02, 11:42AM PDT


Beautiful home built in 2005. Two story, 3 bedroom, 2 1/2 bathrooms, HUGE master suite - bath and walk in closet, two car finished garage, professionally decorated (open to what you may want to keep), nice neutral colors, tile, carpets, hard wood entry, 2 1/2 inch wooden blinds, fire place, great room, lots of storage, inside laundry room, etc.

FAMILY EMERGENCY FORCES SALE - I owe $240,000. I am open to all reasonable offers ($240,000 and below). I am also willing to negotiate fixtures, furniture, washer/dryer, fridge, weight room, etc. in the sale of my home. LOOKING FOR QUICK ESCROW.


Almost certainly Forum Meadows, Darnel "And His Bitches" Estates, or Desert Skeeze.

I'm betting Forum from the price...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Whew! Wow, there is some pretty desperate language in craigslist these days. Tons of "lease to own" ripoffs, one has a "Free Manufactured Home" with land purchase (ie "Will you take my shootin' trailer to the dump & pay the fee?), owner financing (ie "I am asking double what it's worth and no bank will make this loan.").

Entertaining reading!

Anonymous said...

No riots at picnic just cheap salty hotdogs.And a whole lot of fluff from wild I mean wierd Bill.

Anonymous said...

"Bledsoe, one of the more lucky rich athletes to come to Bend in years, has a new $50k/member cigar club next to our own D&D, world famous for $1 hand-jobs".

Somebody should have told Bledsoe the cigar craze is over.

Anonymous said...

"the 33% is of houses listed for sale. the 3% is of all houses. not comparable."
__________

"You have the overall vacancy rate in Bend?

Think it's higher or lower than the national AVG?

Yeah, I'm betting it's many multiples of the nat avg."
__________

i think you're correct but those 33%/3% statistics tell us exactly zero. apples and elephants.

Anonymous said...

Specialy Store, is a code-word for an out of own sucker who comes to Bend with loot, to start his own business, which usually is based on the assumption of economic cleansing of the next rich sucker coming to Bend.

Actually the thought process (using the term loosely) goes more like this:

1. "I wish there was a nice men's cigar club in Bend."

2. "Bend needs a nice men's cigar club."

3. "I know -- I'll OPEN one!"

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Schwarzenegger pulls the trigger:

August 3, 2008
California Is Among States Struggling With Budgets
By THE NEW YORK TIMES

LOS ANGELES — Among states struggling with budget deficits brought on by a national economic slowdown and the subprime lending crisis, California saw its problems brought into sharp relief last week.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger ordered a temporary pay cut to the federal minimum wage of $6.55 an hour for roughly 200,000 state workers, if the state controller goes along with it, and the laying off of 10,000 more.

Mr. Schwarzenegger, a Republican, said he would reimburse workers for their full pay once the Legislature had finished the state budget, now several weeks overdue and about $17 billion in the red.

California is among the worst-hit states in the foreclosure crisis, and a record number of California homeowners met with foreclosures last quarter — 121,341 defaults, up 125 percent from the second quarter of 2007, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

The state is also one of the few that require a two-thirds legislative majority to pass a budget, which is particularly challenging with large deficits and unpopular cuts. Further, the state relies on income taxes rather than property taxes for most of its revenues, a difficult formula in times when jobs are in short supply. And the structure of the state’s budget, which is heavily leveraged and peppered with numerous mandatory spending requirements approved as ballot measures by voters, makes it all the harder to balance.

“Propositions have money mandates,” said Jonathan Zasloff, a law professor at the University of California, Los Angeles and an expert on the state’s constitution. “So much of the state is in hock, anyway.”

The state has already made a 10 percent cut to its Medicaid reimbursement rate and deferred payments to vendors. Mr. Schwarzenegger has called for 10 percent across-the-board reductions to all general fund departments, and a sales tax increase may also be in the offing.

tim said...

There are about 30,000 households in Bend. I don't know how many single-family homes there are. Marge, do you?

500 empty homes is a huge number to be on the MLS. I don't know how many more empties there are. I know a bunch of empty houses that are trying to be rented. And a bunch with owners "waiting" to sell. And a bunch FSBO. And a bunch that are band owned and have been foreclosed on.

I would not be surprised if we were at 5%-7% empty single family.

tim said...

>>And a bunch that are band owned and have been foreclosed on.

Sorry. I meant "bank," not Music From Big Pink.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

i think you're correct but those 33%/3% statistics tell us exactly zero. apples and elephants.

Ummm, I wouldn't go THAT far.

They tell us that HALF the sold houses in Bend are EMPTY. 1/3rd of ALL homes for sale in Bend are EMPTY.

That in itself is pretty daunting. Also tells us that OCCUPIED homes are selling at a FAR SLOWER rate than UNOCCUPIED. THAT also tells you something...

Duncan McGeary said...

"Bottom line was they are all doing fine."

Yeah, I hear pretty much the same thing at my store. But...I just think it's a lack of awareness.

I was hearing similar talk from the builders and real estate people 2 years ago.

I don't think the damage has really reached their level yet.

Anonymous said...

"Ummm, I wouldn't go THAT far.

They tell us that HALF the sold houses in Bend are EMPTY. 1/3rd of ALL homes for sale in Bend are EMPTY.

That in itself is pretty daunting. Also tells us that OCCUPIED homes are selling at a FAR SLOWER rate than UNOCCUPIED. THAT also tells you something..."
__________

that is what you learn from the 33% figure alone. the comparison between the 3% and the 33% tells you nothing. recall that your original statement was:

"We have 33% vacancies, while the rest of the US endures the HORRORS of vacancy rates BELOW 3%."

Anonymous said...

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Anonymous said...

http://bloggers.com/

Above is another auto-engine that will even ping more search engines.

Let's make BB2 #1 in suspicious RE deaths.

Anonymous said...

OCCUPIED homes are selling at a FAR SLOWER rate than UNOCCUPIED.

*

UN-occupied are most likely BANK REPOS, priced to sell.

OCCUPIED are priced to sit, forever.

RE Paralysis, DEJA VU 1933.

Anonymous said...

I know a bunch of empty houses that are trying to be rented. And a bunch with owners "waiting" to sell. And a bunch FSBO. And a bunch that are band owned and have been foreclosed on.

*

BEND is second HOME heaven, how do you define an empty home? A couch? Empty? No lights on? A lock-box?

Depends some of our STD HOLLERN hotel complexes are 90% empty some more, a lot of eastside siberia is 50% empty.

A second home may have furniture, but because of fuel cost the cali hasn't been up this year.

50% of ALL of BEND being a second home, and all those for sale at the right price, ...

Remember a shitload of working cali's bought a BEND second for retirement, and planned to work in cali until that fact.

Homer used to call it 'dark matter', most second home folk are smart enough to leave an electric timer on a light switch.

Just defining 'empty' in BEND is mind boggling.

BT requires you to keep the curtains closed unless your home, and many HOLLERN HOA's have that rule. Take a drive, and do a curtain count, ... It's another project for the willing.

An empty house in BEND, my gut feeling bet is its over 50%.

Which is why I believe we got a ten year inventory.

Anonymous said...

1.) I wish there was a nice GAY MANS bath house in Bend.

2.) I wish it was exclusive, and you had to pay $50k for entry.

3.) I think I'll open one.

tim said...

re: Cali second home...

I just saw a story this morning somewhere about how a bunch of older people who were in pretty good shape financially got themselves in at the top of the RE mania and now have a second home that's killing them.

I predict a second house in Bend will soon be (if it isn't already) seen as a badge of stupidity, rather than a sign of success.

Look for these old Calis to give up the Bend home soon.

Anonymous said...

. Residences near core jobs, transit and walkable neighborhoods will decline less than housing far from jobs and transit.

*

This is why the OREGON state economist just came out last week and said ...

"3 miles radius around downtown Portland, will continue to attract educated young people 30-40."

"Areas of retirement community's such as Bend, will see less growth, and a loss of there young educated professional class"

In summary, if you ain't bringing in the young educated professionals, and giving them jobs, then your community has NO FUTURE.

The future of Bend is a lack of educated people, and plentiful supply of low paying jobs, of changing bed pans for the elderly, or cleaning their homes.

Anonymous said...

I predict a second house in Bend will soon be (if it isn't already) seen as a badge of stupidity, rather than a sign of success.

Look for these old Calis to give up the Bend home soon.

*
98% of the whole play was make real money in cali until retirement, thats over, retire early, that's over,

Now why in the fuck would want to retire in BEND? Given that the money-tree has died.

Sure, FOZ is right, there are a ton of baby's in this town, ST-CHARLES has been going crazy for years, but NOTE these are post construction boom, uneducated trophy-wives, who now work at restaurants.

Bend demographics are going to get weird, cali's that have the second here and now have to defer retirement forever, will eventually dump the house, that's why so many have weeds and such now in town.

Yes, if 2nd home ownership in BEND goes south with the out-of-state crowd, we be fucked.

In the old days SUNRIVER was held together by PDX 2nd home folk, but they have all bought. BLACK-BUTTE ( HOLLERN) was held together by SALEM folk.

BUT FUCKING BEND, is held together by cali's, ... there is only darkness at the end of the tunnel.

Anonymous said...

"The development drew 6,000 visitors".

Somebody's DEAD, and The Bulletin is concerned about RESELLING THE THING. Always New Money. Gotta Get The Money. We Need New Investors.

*

The next guy that buys the SHIRE, the BULL will make famous for 15 minutes.

It's worth it!

Marge said...

Don't know off hand how many SFR's in Bend. When I say vacant I mean no one lives there. Most 2nd homes still have furniture and are considered occupied since owners do visit them. Agree on 33% vs. 3% are not comprable.

Marge said...

Anonymous said "I have gone into detail many times here in this forum on how to build and maintain your own off the grid solar system."

I will look into that. What other preps are you making to maintain yourself if need be?

Anonymous said...

Guys,
These dudes were not killed by the banks. The banks got the collateral, and the FDIC to back them up. Plus, we already know that the smart bank executives already sold their stock at the peak (remember the CACB insider sales?).
No, these dudes were killed by people with no collateral. By people more obsessed with reputation, image, and keeping whats left of the Bend economy going.
These dudes were killed by people with a grudge, but also by people with the power to keep things covered up.
My theory is that these guys were killed by the Bend Bulletin owners.
I think that they were all about to tell all to some reporters from The Oregonian, or the New York Times.
Of course, I could be wrong.
-CACB Shorter

Marge said...

Anonymous said...
Residences near core jobs, transit and walkable neighborhoods will decline less than housing far from jobs and transit.


Have you seen this site?
www.walkscore.com

Maybe some bangers would like to take a walk.

bruce said...

Re: (from Dunc) Meanwhile, not a peep in the paper about the vaunted opening of Tetherow golf course. By the world famous gold developer, Kidd! Who opened a new course at St. Andrews! The kick off to a world class development?

Nope. Silence.

There's a story there. The silence speaks volumes.

...

Did they really open or not? ANy other media cover it? I sure haven't heard much.

LavaBear said...

Was Fleckenstein reading the comments from earlier today? He wrote about vacancy in housing units in today's Chronicles.


Contrarian Chronicles
8/4/2008 12:01 AM ET

The fiction of corporate transparency


Just 2 weeks after reporting earnings, Merrill Lynch said it would have to take a $5.7 billion write-down in the third quarter. How could the financial giant have missed that?
By Bill Fleckenstein

When the stock bubble was under way and, even more importantly, when the real-estate bubble was under way, I continually made the point that bubbles should be avoided, using Japan as an example of what happens in their aftermath.

Folks were often quick to respond: Yeah, but that's Japan. We do things differently here.

It's true, we do do things differently here. But what we do differently is we don't save money, as the Japanese do, and we don't run a trade surplus, as they also do. Other than that, it's pretty much the same here as it was there in the 1980s, as far as a preference for obfuscation versus transparency.

The Securities and Exchange Commission has made a big fuss about changing the rules for shorting stocks, but that's like shooting the messenger. The commission ought to spend its time making sure companies tell the real story and file financial forms that are accurate.

Eminently deserving of the SEC's focus, for example, is the flurry of headlines surrounding Merrill Lynch (MER, news, msgs). Last week, just two weeks after reporting earnings, the company said it would take a $5.7 billion write-off in the third quarter.

Yet in a conference call at the time of the earnings report, when CEO John Thain was pressed about why Merrill wouldn't liquidate assets in need of liquidation, he assured folks that it wasn't something the company needed to do. He also repeated a familiar refrain: that Merrill didn't need any new capital to support its business. "Right now we believe that we are in a very comfortable spot in terms of our capital," he said.

What did Merrill miss?

So the question is: What changed in the past couple of weeks to cause a CDO -- a package of loans known as a collateralized debt obligation -- valued at 36 cents on the dollar to be "sold" last week at 22 cents? What did Thain know about this at the last conference call, and why was it not made clear to folks?

Of course, this is more a consignment sale than a true sale. Merrill is providing 75% financing on a nonrecourse basis. That means it's really receiving about 5 cents on the dollar. It may get the other 17 cents later, or it may get the securities back. In essence, Merrill wrote a put option "down 5 cents on the dollar" and gets a call option to get the other 17 cents.And the big news is that this was for supersenior tranches, or slices, of these CDOs, the highest-rated and presumably safest debts of all. That, in all likelihood, makes a mockery of the value of hundreds of billions' worth of other CDOs and tranches.

I know that markets change rapidly, but it's hard for me to believe that the value of this security could drop so fast in just two weeks. This is the sort of thing the SEC should be investigating.

On a related topic, the SEC has also announced an investigation into negative rumors that "hit" Lehman Bros. (LEH, news, msgs). Funny, I don't remember the SEC ever investigating buyout rumors surrounding Lehman or Bear Stearns. Nor do I recall the SEC looking into erroneous bullish pronouncements from many entities that touched off this mortgage crisis in one way or another -- i.e., IndyMac Bancorp (IDMC, news, msgs), Washington Mutual (WM, news, msgs), New Century Financial (NEWOQ, news, msgs), Toll Bros. (TOL, news, msgs), etc.

Certainly, the SEC has long turned a blind eye to bullishly oriented market pranks such as quarter-end markups.

Why not rent?

As for the potential of the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac "bailout" bill to actually solve our housing problem, I thought I'd pass along a few nuggets from Joel Locker of FBN Securities: Even though folks are focused on foreclosure rates, rental vacancies are just as material. As of the end of the second quarter, vacant rental units stood at 10% (about 3.94 million units), up from the 43-year average of 7.16%.

That 2.84-percentage-point difference equates to about 1.12 million excess rental units above the historic mean, which prompts Locker to ask: "Why keep people in houses they can barely afford without government (taxpayer) assistance when rental units desperately need occupancy?" He also points out that the overall housing vacancy rate climbed to 14.36% against a 43-year average high of 10.75%. (There are roughly 130 million total units, with 18.6 million vacant.) In order to get back to the 10.75% mean, the U.S. would have to create about 4.7 million households. To achieve equilibrium, we would need to create about 6.6 million jobs (assuming 1.4 jobs as creating a household) and not build one additional housing unit.

Those are a few macro numbers to chew on every time some uninformed source declares today to be the end of our troubles. When we finally get to the end of the troubles, many of these big numbers will have been worked through, and the psychology will be much different than it is today. I'm not saying that I'll know when that is exactly, but I'm very confident in saying we're nowhere close yet.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I predict a second house in Bend will soon be (if it isn't already) seen as a badge of stupidity, rather than a sign of success.

I'm sort of curious if the TAINT of home ownership will spread to primary residences? Maybe in a decade or so, when the returns have been so awful for so long... maybe?

THAT would be truly bizarro world...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

It's true, we do do things differently here. But what we do differently is we don't save money, as the Japanese do, and we don't run a trade surplus, as they also do. Other than that, it's pretty much the same here as it was there in the 1980s, as far as a preference for obfuscation versus transparency.

Exactly. These two things, trade surplus & No Savings, are very intertwined. In many ways they are the exact same thing.

This is exactly what I've been talking about for awhile now....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Yet in a conference call at the time of the earnings report, when CEO John Thain was pressed about why Merrill wouldn't liquidate assets in need of liquidation, he assured folks that it wasn't something the company needed to do. He also repeated a familiar refrain: that Merrill didn't need any new capital to support its business. "Right now we believe that we are in a very comfortable spot in terms of our capital," he said.

Bend is like Merrill; head in the sand, pie-in-the-sky bullshit, absolutely no acknowledgment of the calamity unfolding around them.

We'll have our own Day of Reckoning.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

"Right now we believe that we are in a very comfortable spot in terms of our capital..."

Didn't I read that Bend, having long ago lost a lawsuit filed under the ADA, STILL has something like 94% NON-COMPLIANCE with their cripple ramps. It'll cost an ass-load to fix them, of course.

City of Bend: Head in sand, thumb up ass, as always. Can't fucking fix the cripple ramps, but by God they can give builders a break on SDC charges, even though half Bends homes are empty...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

3 builders, though hard-hit, remain optimistic
By Andrew Moore / The Bulletin
Published: August 03. 2008 4:00AM PST

The real estate slowdown has forced some of Central Oregon’s bigger homebuilders to lay off staff and scramble for financing in response to declining sales and lenders calling in loans. But they are confident real estate’s cyclical nature means that demand will return and they intend to stick around to capitalize on it, say the presidents of three builders with significant stakes in Central Oregon. Dennis Pahlisch, president of Pahlisch Homes, said that even if his company didn’t sell any homes in the next two years, it has enough cash and reserves on hand to make it another 24 months before it would be forced into reorganization. That’s not to say the company isn’t suffering. Pahlisch said sales are down 60 percent from previous years and his company has laid off roughly 65 percent of its work force.

Declining sales and layoffs are to be expected in a downturn, Pahlisch said, and he’s weathered three of them in his 27 years as a builder. But this one is different, he said, as a swirl of compounding factors — tight credit, a glut of inventory and consumer confidence battered by declining home values and rising fuel and food costs — caught many builders off-guard.

“The market just jumped on us,” Pahlisch said.

Also new to Pahlisch is the reserved lending climate. In July, Bank of the Cascades filed suit against a Pahlisch holding company to call in a loan. Pahlisch said the loan’s payments were always made on time and the suit came as a surprise.

“What we didn’t prepare for, and I’m not on a bank attack, but we had never in our history had a loan not renewed and that is something we are dealing with in the building industry that is new to us,” Pahlisch said.

Pahlisch was able to find alternative financing from private lenders, but the loans cost more and there is less to borrow, he said. Still, Pahlisch is optimistic the bottom is near. He said past downturns have tended to last roughly 2½ years, and he dates the start of the current one to mid-2006, meaning a turnaround is likely by early 2009.

According to the independent Bratton Report, a monthly analysis of Central Oregon real estate statistics released by the Bratton Appraisal Group in Bend, single-family home sales in Bend numbered almost 250 in June 2006 and beat that mark only once since then, in August 2006. In June this year, the latest month for which data are available, the Bratton Report listed sales of 114 single-family homes in Bend, compared with 152 in June 2007, 248 in June 2006 and 296 in June 2005.

Pahlisch said his company planned for the current downturn, although its depth has been surprising. The company has whittled its inventory of unsold homes from a high of 95 to 30, Pahlisch said. Less inventory will help spur a recovery as demand catches up with supply, he said. And in what he takes as a good sign, Pahlisch said his company is still building, with at least eight projects — all presold — slated to begin in the next few months. Increasing demand is key to housing’s recovery, and Pahlisch believes the federal housing rescue bill signed into law last week by President Bush will help, specifically the $7,500 tax credit for first-time homebuyers. Pahlisch said his company plans to begin marketing that as an incentive. But first-time homebuyers constitute just 30 percent of the market, he said. The rest are families moving into larger homes, families leaving metropolitan areas for quality of life and retirees. But people in that larger segment of the market all have a similar problem, said Pahlisch: They need to be able to sell their existing homes first.

“All they need is a sign to move again. When there is any encouraging news about the economy, it’s going to open people up, because there is going to be that pent-up demand,” Pahlisch said. “Our inventory is coming down and building permits are down, and it creates that urgency factor, and that is what will be created at the last quarter of this year, and it will ignite some excitement again.”

Renaissance Homes

Randy Sebastian, president of Renaissance Homes, said his company is “muscling through” a “tough” market that also has been surprising in the scope of its impact. He’s laid off half his staff and is selling an average of two homes a month in Bend, he said, a far cry from some months with double-digit sales in past years. Overall, the company’s home sales are down a third, he said. Sebastian, like Pahlisch, also had to deal with a lender who filed suit to call in a loan. In March, KeyBank initiated foreclosure proceedings on the undeveloped portions of Renaissance Ridge, a 210-lot subdivision in southwest Bend developed by Renaissance Homes. Sebastian said he was able to pay off the loan by securing private financing. And he’s still building, albeit at a slower pace. He has curtailed speculative building as well as the building of homes based on contingency sales.

“This market, for lots of reasons, caught a lot of people, including me,” said Sebastian.

Sebastian, a builder for 24 years, said he plans to continue building for “another 24 years” and that his Lake Oswego-based company is in no immediate financial danger. The company has two other developments in Bend, Shevlin Pines and Fremont Place, and others in Western Oregon. Unlike Pahlisch, at least in the near term, Sebastian said he needs to sell homes for his company to stay solvent, partly due to the carrying costs for the land he owns. That was the big lesson learned, he said: Don’t buy so much land.

“Builders who keep their businesses going need to have land for the future, and once the sales slowed down, what was a two- to three-year land supply became a five- to six-year land supply so everyone was caught with more land then they needed,” Sebastian said.

Sebastian said he’s selling homes. He sold four in Bend in July, a 100 percent increase from the two he sold in June. He said his company has no plans to leave the area and is “committed” to Bend, which includes focusing on customer service and fulfilling warranty requests. He’s also optimistic that the market’s bottom is near. Rising interest rates will force more buyers to jump into the market before they rise further, he said, and he’s also confident Oregon will continue to draw homebuyers. More importantly, he said, the market’s recovery is less likely to be fueled by speculation.

“I think everyone will be much more prudent, buyers and lenders, and people will stop looking at houses as stock portfolios and looking at (them) as a place to live,” Sebastian said. “For everyone, it was a lesson. We’re building homes, and it’s great they go up in value, but it’s (more than) an investment.”

Woodhill Homes

George Hale, a principal with Woodhill Homes, another Central Oregon homebuilder, echoed the sentiments of Pahlisch and Sebastian, saying the current housing market is “very, very difficult.” Hale said his company has laid off 75 percent of its staff and has stopped building spec homes. Instead, it is keeping a few homes vacant in order to generate sales and then only building new homes when a buyer agrees to purchase one. Hale, a builder for 10 years, said his company will pull through the current downturn. What will help speed the recovery is for banks to pull back from their lending restrictions, he said.

“Lending rules got too lax and now they are too tight,” Hale said. “It’s the typical expansion and contraction cycle and when they contract, it’s too far and too tight. ... I think they’ve got to get through all the losses first, then they can start lending money out again. But until then, they are in a reactionary mode.”

Hale also hopes the housing market is close to reaching the bottom. He said the company had its best turnout ever during last month’s Tour of Homes in Bend and that he’s seeing signs that investors are again inquiring about housing. When investors step in, the bottom is close, according to Hale. This November’s presidential election also will help, he said. Regardless of who’s elected, the result will improve morale, help ease uncertainty about the economy and boost consumer confidence, Hale predicted.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Sebastian said he needs to sell homes for his company to stay solvent, partly due to the carrying costs for the land he owns. That was the big lesson learned, he said: Don’t buy so much land.

He's dead.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

He sold four in Bend in July, a 100 percent increase from the two he sold in June.

Standard statistical bullshit.

While true, it's ridiculous.

But they had to get that "100 percent increase" in there.

still renting . . . said...

August 4, 2008
Housing Lenders Fear Bigger Wave of Loan Defaults
By VIKAS BAJAJ
The New York Times

The first wave of Americans to default on their home mortgages appears to be cresting, but a second, far larger one is quickly building.

Homeowners with good credit are falling behind on their payments in growing numbers, even as the problems with mortgages made to people with weak, or subprime, credit are showing their first, tentative signs of leveling off after two years of spiraling defaults.

The percentage of mortgages in arrears in the category of loans one rung above subprime, so-called alternative-A mortgages, quadrupled to 12 percent in April from a year earlier. Delinquencies among prime loans, which account for most of the $12 trillion market, doubled to 2.7 percent in that time.

The mortgage troubles have been exacerbated by an economy that is still struggling. Reports last week showed another drop in home prices, slower-than-expected economic growth and a huge loss at General Motors. On Friday, the Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate in July climbed to a four-year high.

While it is difficult to draw precise parallels among various segments of the mortgage market, the arc of the crisis in subprime loans suggests that the problems in the broader market may not peak for another year or two, analysts said.

Defaults are likely to accelerate because many homeowners’ monthly payments are rising rapidly. The higher bills come as home prices continue to decline and banks tighten their lending standards, making it harder for people to refinance loans or sell their homes. Of particular concern are “alt-A” loans, many of which were made to people with good credit scores without proof of their income or assets.

“Subprime was the tip of the iceberg,” said Thomas H. Atteberry, president of First Pacific Advisors, a investment firm in Los Angeles that trades mortgage securities. “Prime will be far bigger in its impact.”

In a conference call with analysts last month, James Dimon, the chairman and chief executive of JPMorgan Chase, said he expected losses on prime loans at his bank to triple in the coming months and described the outlook for them as “terrible.”

Delinquencies on mortgages tend to peak three to five years after loans are made, said Mark Fleming, the chief economist at First American CoreLogic, a research firm. Not surprisingly, subprime loans from 2005 appear closer to the end of defaults than those made in 2007, for which default rates continue to rise steeply.

“We will hit those points in a few years, and that will help in many ways,” Mr. Fleming said, referring to the loans made later in the housing boom. “We just have to survive through this part of the cycle.”

Data on securities backed by subprime mortgages show that 8.41 percent of loans from 2005 were delinquent by 90 days or more or in foreclosure in June, up from 8.35 percent in May, according to CreditSights, a research firm with offices in New York and London. By contrast, 16.6 percent of 2007 loans were troubled in June, up from 15.8 percent.

Some of that reflects basic math. Over the years, some loans will be paid off as homeowners sell or refinance, and some homes will be foreclosed upon and sold. That reduces the number of loans from those earlier years that could default. Also, since the credit market seized up last year, lenders have become much more conservative and have stopped making most subprime loans and cut back on many other popular mortgages.

The resetting of rates on adjustable mortgages, which was a big fear of many analysts in 2006 and 2007, has become less problematic because the short-term interest rates to which many of those loans are tied have fallen significantly as the Federal Reserve has lowered rates. The recent federal tax rebates and efforts to modify more loans have also helped somewhat, analysts say.

What will sting borrowers more than rising interest rates, analysts say, is having to pay interest and principal every month after spending several years paying only interest or sometimes even less than that. Such loan terms were popular during the boom with alt-A and prime borrowers and appeared appealing while home prices were rising and interest rates were low.

But now, some borrowers could see their payments jump 50 percent or more, and they may not be able to sell their properties for as much as they owe.

Prime and alt-A borrowers typically had a five- or seven-year grace period before payments toward principal were required. By contrast, subprime loans had a two-to-three-year introductory period. That difference partly explains the lag in delinquencies between the two types of loans, said David Watts, an analyst with CreditSights.

“More delinquencies look like they are on the horizon because so few of them have reset,” Mr. Watts said about alt-A mortgages.

The wave of foreclosures is still rising in states like California, where many homeowners turned to creative mortgages during the boom. From April to June, mortgage companies filed 121,000 notices of default in California, up nearly 7 percent from the first quarter and more than twice as many as in the second quarter of 2007, according to DataQuick, a real estate data firm based in La Jolla, Calif. The firm said the median age of the loans increased to 26 months from 16 months a year earlier.

The mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, which own or guarantee nearly half of all mortgages, are trying to stem that tide. Last week, they said they would pay more to the mortgage servicing companies that they hire to modify delinquent loans and avoid foreclosures.

Delinquencies in prime and alt-A loans are particularly challenging for banks because they hold more such loans on their books than they do subprime mortgages. Downey Financial, which owns a savings bank that operates in California and Arizona, recently reported that 11.2 percent of its loans were delinquent at the end of June, a big increase from the 6.1 percent that were past due at the end of last year.

The bank’s troubles stem from its $6.2 billion portfolio of so-called option adjustable-rate mortgages, which allow borrowers to pay less than the interest owed on their mortgage in the early years. The unpaid interest is added to the principal due on the loan, so over time borrowers can owe more than the initial loan amount. Eventually, when loans grow by 10 percent or 15 percent, the borrowers are required to start paying both the interest and principal due.

Many borrowers who got these loans during the boom had good credit scores, but many of them owe more than their homes are worth. Analysts believe that many will not be able to or want to make higher payments.

“The wave on the prime side has lagged the wave on the subprime side,” said Rod Dubitsky, head of asset-backed research at Credit Suisse. “The reset of option ARM loans is a big event that will drive the timing of delinquencies.”

bruce said...

RE: Of course, this is more a consignment sale than a true sale. Merrill is providing 75% financing on a nonrecourse basis. That means it's really receiving about 5 cents on the dollar. It may get the other 17 cents later, or it may get the securities back. In essence, Merrill wrote a put option "down 5 cents on the dollar" and gets a call option to get the other 17 cents.And the big news is that this was for supersenior tranches, or slices, of these CDOs, the highest-rated and presumably safest debts of all. That, in all likelihood, makes a mockery of the value of hundreds of billions' worth of other CDOs and tranches.

Lot more shit going down. There is at least a trillion of toxic CDO's.
http://www.totalsecuritization.com/Default.aspx is an interesting site. It's Fall 2007 CDO report shows that $220B were issued in the US in 2006 through September. This compares to $235B in 2007 through Sept., most before a steep falloff in July, 2007. There was $1.4 trillion in CDO's outstanding at the end of 2006.

If top level tranches are being discounted 80% or more already, this is going to be a huge fucking mess. Far beyond anything we've seen already. About $2 trillion will turn into $100M, a 90% loss. Maybe. It could get even worse.

That's a lot of lost money, and it's going to affect a lot more than just Wall Street.

Marge said...

I a sure I have posted or seen this posted here.

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/10/imf-mortgage-reset-chart.html

Anonymous said...

My theory is that these guys were killed by the Bend Bulletin owners.
I think that they were all about to tell all to some reporters from The Oregonian, or the New York Times.
Of course, I could be wrong.
-CACB Shorter

*

Well the BULL is owned by HOLLERN, aka Brooks as they provided the free land to build the BULL.

When HOMER say's BANK, I assumed he meant 'private-money', and bank was a euphemism for loan. Remember shorter that all these were late deals, that even by sep2006 UBS had pulled out of JR deal for $20M to the city.

When all our recent deceased borrowed the money to buy these 'falling knive' STD's, they did so from secondary high interest, high 'health' risk sources.

When 'HOMER' says 'BANK' I don't think he meant CACB, as all their stupid bets were done back prior to 2006.

The deceased were all borrowing 20% or higher, note when KURATEK was going to borrow from UBS back in sep2006 he had the city signed up for 20%/yr rates, and UBS still walked away from the deal.

The deceased had put together these newer deals in 2007/2008, which were high-risk, speculative loans, that carry health risks, beside financial risk.

Lastly, we already know that HOLLERN & BLEDSOE are loaning money today to builders, but its more meat&potatoe money to keep Bends builders from starving.

I don't think you'll ever be able to pin any crime on the BULL-OWNERS, I think they're smart enough to have hired contractors outside of the state.

Eventually someone will talk, and perhaps the Oregonian will cover, but I don't think it will be a revelation, as they're more corrupt than the BULL.

You have to understand that the Judges in the three county were all involved in real-estate, its not anyones interest in the State or the Oregon State Bar, for any of this to ever become public. Thus it will not.

The Crook County Judge, not only is-was the executor of the LS estate, but also sits on the State RE board, legal/financial powers of central Oregon are intertwined. There will never be dirty-laundry aired, its just not going to happen. Ever.

The WSJ might do a comedy act on it sometime, but it will be lite portrayal RE investment gone wrong.

Even if someone did come to the Oregonian, or OPB with the real story, they're never going to tell the story. It's not in the systems interest.

Shit a few years ago they murdered the Prison Warden of Oregon, on the Salem steps of the prison, and got away with it, and that never got reported, except by Phil Stanford, who had to quit the Oregonian to do so.

All we can do is document whats going on, make sure they don't black us out ( rel=nofollow ), and hope that future generations can learn what Bend-OR was about in the roaring 2000's. That's it, don't hope for anything more.

Anonymous said...

That was the big lesson learned, he said: Don’t buy so much land.

He's dead.

*

A bigger lesson is don't pay cash for land. That way you can walk away.

It's like Hollern in the early 80's, land-rich, cash poor.

Today everyone is house-rich, cash-poor, and we're still at the beginning of the game.

All these developers doubled their bets by buying land with their profits from their first or second STD.

These guys were trying to dump these work-in-progress STD's two years ago. Now nobody is going to buy them, well guys that commit suicide will buy the stuff, but eventually the word in town will get out, that buy 'falling knife' STD's is dangerous to your health.

Well at the very least, the BULL is talking about a developer going down, but I think this is because Sebastian is a classic late comer, and outsider, he didn't come in until 2002. He's not part of the good old boy team of Bill Smith, Mike Hollern, Homer Williams,

The BULL ream Sebastian's ass, and nobody gets bitch slapped. The BULL gets to report about stupid developers, its win-win for all.

Don't hold your breath for the BULL to report about what a moron HOLLERN was, after all when you provide ten acres of prime real estate for free in 1998, you would expect the BULL to take care of you forever.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

U.S. Spending Rises; Prices Jump the Most Since 1981

By Bob Willis and Shobhana Chandra

Aug. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The biggest increase in prices in almost three decades eroded consumers' buying power in June, diminishing the boost from the government's tax rebates.

Consumer inflation climbed 0.8 percent, the most since February 1981, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. Spending increased 0.6 percent after a 0.8 percent gain in May.

The tax rebates from the government's stimulus plan will provide only a temporary boost for Americans in the face of $4- a-gallon gasoline, tumbling home prices and mounting job losses. The Federal Reserve is projected to hold interest rates unchanged tomorrow as the risks of both faster inflation and slower growth mount.

``There is a bit more inflation pressure than many people anticipated,'' said Kevin Logan, a senior market economist at Dresdner Kleinwort in New York, who correctly forecast the gain in spending. ``Inflation pressure is more widespread and that has to be some concern for the Fed. The tax cuts have helped maintain spending, but it's likely to drop off pretty dramatically in the fourth quarter.''

Treasuries fell, pushing yields higher. The benchmark 10- year note yielded 3.97 percent as of 8:57 a.m. in New York, up 3 basis points.

Economists had forecast spending would rise 0.4 percent, after an originally reported 0.8 percent increase in May, according to the median of 67 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from a 0.5 percent decline to a 0.9 percent gain.

Incomes Increase

Incomes increased 0.1 percent after jumping 1.8 percent the prior month, today's report showed. The median forecast was a decline of 0.2 percent. About $28 billion in rebates went out in June, compared with about $50 billion in late April and May, according to Treasury Department figures.

The Fed's preferred gauge of prices, which excludes food and fuel, climbed 0.3 percent, more than forecast, after a 0.2 percent gain the previous month. That compared with a 0.2 percent median estimate in the Bloomberg survey.

The price measure was up 2.3 percent from June 2007, the biggest year-over-year increase since December.

Fed's Meeting

Investors are betting the Fed will hold the benchmark rate unchanged at 2 percent tomorrow, according to federal funds futures contracts. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke on July 15 told lawmakers that the economy faced threats to both growth and inflation.

Adjusted for inflation, spending decreased 0.2 percent after rising 0.3 percent in May.

Most economists are forecasting the lift from the rebates will fade in the second half of the year. Retail sales rose 0.1 percent in June, less than forecast, indicating consumers may already have started to hunker down. Purchases of autos and light trucks dropped in July to the lowest level since 1993, industry figures last week showed.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg in the first week of July forecast economic growth to slow to 1.4 percent in the third quarter and to 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter.

The economy shrank at a 0.2 percent race in the last three months of 2007 and grew at about an average 1.5 percent annual pace in the first six months of 2008, government data last week showed.

With the economy teetering on the brink of a recession, consumers are focusing their purchases on staples while cutting back on luxuries like $4 lattes, causing sales to slump at Starbucks Corp. the world's largest chain of coffee shops.

Starbucks last week said it will close more U.S. stores than it will open next year after it posted its first loss in 16 years as a public company.

``Until the economy significantly improves, we're just trying to do what we can to get through this storm,'' Starbucks Chairman Howard Schultz said on a conference call.

Anonymous said...

Just saw this posted on kitco kinda interesting http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMqnUS8sHBY

Anonymous said...

More cheery news to start off your week with:

Housing Lenders Fear Bigger Wave of Loan Defaults

By VIKAS BAJAJ
Published: August 4, 2008

The first wave of Americans to default on their home mortgages appears to be cresting, but a second, far larger one is quickly building.

Homeowners with good credit are falling behind on their payments in growing numbers, even as the problems with mortgages made to people with weak, or subprime, credit are showing their first, tentative signs of leveling off after two years of spiraling defaults.

The percentage of mortgages in arrears in the category of loans one rung above subprime, so-called alternative-A mortgages, quadrupled to 12 percent in April from a year earlier. Delinquencies among prime loans, which account for most of the $12 trillion market, doubled to 2.7 percent in that time.

The mortgage troubles have been exacerbated by an economy that is still struggling. Reports last week showed another drop in home prices, slower-than-expected economic growth and a huge loss at General Motors. On Friday, the Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate in July climbed to a four-year high.

While it is difficult to draw precise parallels among various segments of the mortgage market, the arc of the crisis in subprime loans suggests that the problems in the broader market may not peak for another year or two, analysts said.

Defaults are likely to accelerate because many homeowners’ monthly payments are rising rapidly. The higher bills come as home prices continue to decline and banks tighten their lending standards, making it harder for people to refinance loans or sell their homes. Of particular concern are “alt-A” loans, many of which were made to people with good credit scores without proof of their income or assets.

“Subprime was the tip of the iceberg,” said Thomas H. Atteberry, president of First Pacific Advisors, a investment firm in Los Angeles that trades mortgage securities. “Prime will be far bigger in its impact.” -- NY Times

Anonymous said...

google searched c*nt and p*ssy and got this site. WTF?

Anonymous said...

google searched c*nt and p*ssy and got this site. WTF?

*

Now that the BULL is no longer black-listing this site because homer removed the 'nofollow'.

I'm sure we'll see a lot of desperate spam, like the above.

Also we'll hear more from the Bend-Media ( oxymoron for Brooks Resources ), about how all these death-threat emails must be contained, and that the local internet is out of control.

bruce said...

2008 NODs continue to run at almost 300% over 2007 numbers:

Deschutes County NODs

1/1-7/31/08 730
1/1-7/31/07 248

7/1-7/31/08 142
7/1-7/31/07 56

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Anonymous said...

2008 NODs continue to run at almost 300% over 2007 numbers:


*

I wonder if we're #1, we're always #1.

Anonymous said...

WRT to the reset-chart, we have known its 2006, that it will take 5 years to clear the resets. Most were 1/5 ARMS, and the BUSH-TRIBE has kept interest-rates low as to flood the econ with cheap money ( 4% ).

After O-BOMB-A is elected interest rates will go to 20%, and the resets will make homes fall like dominoes through 2012, as we have said all along.

bruce said...

Details coming out about Suterra land purchase at Juniper Ridge:

-10 acres at $7/sq ft
(10 acres=435600 sq ft=$3,049,200)

-City pays 1/3rd of $9000 per trip cost that will be used to fix Cooley/97 eventually, Suterra pays $6000 per trip. The actual text:
"3. Transportation. As we explained, we will ask for a one-time special impact fee for regional transportation needs of $6,000 for pm peak hour trips (4-6:00 pm). VVe anticipate that the fee may be as high as $9,000/trip, but based on your projected low trip demand, we would make up the difference from the sales proceeds."

Timeline such that deal should be done by fall. Suterra wants to start work on site as soon as 30-day due diligence period is successfully completed.

Source: http://www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/docs/Letter_to_Suterra.pdf

Good company, definite growth potential. Definitively sets sq ft price at $7, not the $10 John Russell kept insisting was going to happen. At least no SDC deferments. Yet.

Interestingly, this next sale disrupts the just approved master plan, because none of the plots adjacent north or west of Les Schwab are planned for 10 acre parcels. Not even close. See page four of the Land Use portion.

And I am glad we are moving immediately towards large parcels.

What was that Feynmann comment I posted last week? He stated it in his testimony about the shuttle failure: "...reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled."

tim said...

Was that the Feynmann quote? I thought you quoted the one where he testified that O-rings were no good as sex toys after they've been frozen.

bruce said...

Here is the actual SDC deferral resolution that will be voted on at Wednesday's CC meeting: http://www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/docs/Resolution_Economic_Stimulus_Package.pdf

A RESOLUTION ADOPTING A SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT CHARGE DEFERRAL PROGRAM FOR BUILDERS IN THE CITY OF BEND

WHEREAS, the Country’s economic downturn has severely and negatively affected the building industry;

WHEREAS, a healthy and robust building industry is vital to meeting various City of Bend goals including increasing construction related employment and the availability of affordable housing;

WHEREAS, the City Council believes that a short term program for deferral of system development charges (SDCs) will provide builders with some financial relief;

THE CITY COUNCIL DOES RESOLVE AS FOLLOWS:

SECTION ONE. Qualified builders may be eligible to defer payment of transportation, water and sewer SDCs for up to nine months, or through the time of application for an occupancy permit for a particular structure, whichever is
earlier.
etc...

Max nine months, although a few may actually need an occupancy permit before then. But other than placing a lien on the property there is no mechanism for forcing payment. Just a 12% annual simple interest charge as follows:

SECTION FOUR. Interest will be charged at 12% annually in the event that the SDCs are not paid when due as provided for in Section One of this Resolution. In addition, participating builders will be required to waive all rights to contest the amount and means of calculating the SDC.

From the Issue Summary:
 SDCs must be paid in full at the time of application for occupancy permit or nine months, whichever is earlier. The Building Department will not perform final inspection until the SDCs have been paid in full.

 If the nine month due date comes earlier than final inspection and the builder is unable to pay, builders will be charged a $100 fee and interest at 12% starting on the first day of the tenth month.

 If a home goes into foreclosure while under construction, interest will accrue at 12% per month. The City will ultimately collect the SDCs plus the accrued interest either when the owner of the property changes or a certificate of occupancy is issued.


Also:
CURRENT YEAR BUDGET IMPACTS (Department): It is unknown at this time how many builders will take advantage of this program. SDC deferral requests will be monitored on an ongoing basis to ensure adequate funds are available for the City to meet our obligations.

FINANCIAL PERSPECTIVE & RECOMMENDATION (Finance): Debt service payments and the City’s ability to build primary infrastructure are dependent on SDC revenues. By adopting the SDC deferral program, the primary risk to the City is that there are not enough funds to make debt service payments and that the public benefit provided does not outweigh the cost of providing the service. Based on staff’s research of SDC deferral programs in other cities, it appears that most builders participating in the program will be commercial or large residential developers, not individual property owners. Given the cost of SDCs on some commercial projects, the amount of SDC deferrals could escalate very quickly. Staff will continuously monitor the deferral requests and amount of outstanding SDCs, and will terminate the program at any time if the City’s ability to make debt service payments or other obligations is compromised.


I can't seem to find those specific goals stated in the second WHEREAS in the 2008 Goals or the expanded version of Goals. We need more jobs that aren't as cyclical as building.

I was golfing with a drywall contractor Sunday, one who grew up here. He completely agreed we are incredibly overbuilt and that the only way out of it was more good jobs, not pushing string uphill by deferring SDC's on housing. On commercial and other employment construction, it may help. But seeing all the empty office space around the Simpson/Columbia/Century Drive area (which really surpised the contractor, as he is "east side") I don't know how much more of that we need for a while.

My gut tells me this is going to get us in trouble in about 12-18 months, when SDCs have been (informally) permanently deferred by unsold buildings...

Anonymous said...

The SDC deferral idea is simply NUTS. When we already have a glut on the market, why should we be encouraging builders to build even more houses that won't sell??

Any councilor who votes for this piece of crap should be fucking RECALLED.

Anonymous said...

Another business bites the dust. The following email was sent to customers this afternoon. It's amazing four of these places lasted as long as they did.

****
It Was Fun While It Lasted

Due to the high cost of fresh food, fuel prices, and our landlord's inability to renegotiate our lease, we have no choice but to close our doors permanently.

We appreciate all of you who have supported Entrees Made Easy. We will miss you all so much!
Thank you for all of your kind thoughts and concerns.

We truly value our amazing employees! If any of you can assist in their job search, please email us at bend@entreesmadeeasy.com and we will pass any leads on.

Remember, if you find yourself in the Portland area and are in need of some great food, visit Entrees Made Easy in Hillsboro and St. Helens.

We still believe in the concept of "Meal Prep" and hope that you will support Dinners Done Right, Dinners Ready and Dream Dinners.

Again, thank you for allowing us the privilege of serving you.

Best Wishes,
Sally, Tina, Kip, Misty

Anonymous said...

bruce (the guy golfing with the drywall contractor). Does your drywall buddy need some work. Had a "friend" give me a bid on some work here in Warrenton. 142- 4x12 sheets 5/8". Quoted me $8180 finished (orange peeled). I measured myself and came up with 132 sheets,and I figured heavy, but the kicker is I called and got material prices and I can get all the material delivered and loaded for about $2,500. My "friend" would make about $5,700 in labor. Seems awfully high to me. Ask your golfing buddy if 1.20 /sq ft is in line for me...........there's work on the coast

tim said...

Bruce,

I know you're into politics. I found this site you may like. It's a bit much for me, but it might be up your alley.

http://havenworks.com/

bruce said...

A bit overwhelming...some good info but damned hard to navigate.

bruce said...

Re: bruce (the guy golfing with the drywall contractor). Does your drywall buddy need some work.

I'll pass it on.

bruce said...

PS Thanks :)

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Another business bites the dust. The following email was sent to customers this afternoon. It's amazing four of these places lasted as long as they did.

Where was this posted?

Notice the IMPLIED BLAME on the landlord.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Where was this posted?


Uhhh, never mind.
:)

bruce said...

And completely fucking off-topic, here is the link to the soon to happen Mike McCarthy press conference about how to fit Favre into the circus:
http://packers.com/multimedia/packers_on_air_schedule/

Have you ever seen a better case of marketing than this saga? On and on, twist and turn, it's like a fucking reality show.

I grew up watching Bart Starr, and I noticed in that their was a picture of Brett and Bart on Brett's stadium suite wall during a video of his wife standing in it at Family Night.

Packers ROOOL ;)

bruce said...

On local topics, Mark Capell, a Republican City Councilman, dropped of his money to attend the "Blue Wave" event funding the Dems downticket push this fall. Surprising.

I don't really care what label you want to wear, I just want you to pay attention and think. Vote for the common good, not the HOLLERN good. Etc.

Still, it was very surprising.

Anonymous said...

Another bend builder/developer has passed. Mark R. Swisher, of Bend

June 16, 1960 - July 25 2008

Anonymous said...

Mark R. Swisher, of Bend

*

Homer, you got to have a tombstone for these folks, and a little mention of each, on your blog. Given that the BULLandSORE is silent.

Anonymous said...

Contractor: Swisher Homes, 225 SW Scalehouse Lp #104,. Bend, OR 97702, 541-383-0861, LN 108054. Value: 291783 SF: 2974 (North West Crossing) ...

One of the original 'chosen few' to develop lord-Hollern's, heaven on earth.

Anonymous said...

Go to Bend Bulletin, Death Notices, July 27, for Swisher death.

Anonymous said...

www.northwestcrossing.com/Bend_Oregon_Real_Estate/Find_Your_Home_Lot/Meet_Our_Builders

Northwest Crossing: Meet Our Builders
You may never want to
leave the neighborhood Alive.

( I'm NOT making this up! )


The NorthWest Crossing Builders' Guild consists of 22 high quality, experienced General Contractors who have built numerous homes at NorthWest Crossing and understand the procedures and processes involved in designing and building homes in NorthWest Crossing. These builders are listed below. We invite you to familiarize yourself with our Bend, Oregon home builder

( Well not anymore, now anyone can build anything, but the above was written pre 2006, good market, in fact everyone @NWXC paid 50% premium for marketing. )


Mark R. Swisher, of Bend

June 16, 1960 - July 25 2008

Arrangements: Niswonger-Reynolds Funeral Home is handling the arrangements, 382-2471

Services: Memorial Service will be held on Friday, August 8, 2008 at 1:30 at New Hope Church, Bend. Family wishes contributions be sent to the Hospice Center, 2075 NE Wyatt Court, Bend

Marge said...

I knew Mark, he died of liver disease. Also had 2 Nod's of late.

Anonymous said...

Hey folks, people DO sometimes die of natural causes. And sometimes they commit suicide all by themselves. Not everybody who dies is a victim of a "bank-ordered mob hit."

Sheesh, this blog gets loonier by the day.

Anonymous said...

The reason for the high mortality rate of the Bend Builder, is divorce, not real estate. - clint

*

Yes, Clint is right, when you catch Siberian-Tract-Development deal during an falling knife-economy.

You generally lose everything.

Historically when the bill collector comes to the front door, the wife goes out the back door. Just historical fact.

Thus, the entire bubbles demise was caused by 'divorce', in essence the end result is always the cause. Using 'clint' logic.

We have had two builders 'fall off cliffs', and two other from apparent suicides. One of the suicides the guy blew his brains out while his girlfriend went to the store, when she got back in bed, she didn't know he was dead. Thus that too might be construed as a 'marriage' problem.

The good Dr. you allude to who was the top ER doc, at the local Bend Hospital, and who just happened to have a hobby that included bank-rolling the most over-the-top developments in Bend, had just bought "The Shire" ( a hobbit village ) in Bend this winter, and lost his fucking ass.

Also just so you know 'Bend-Oregon' All these developer/builders are on their 2,3,4 marriage, because when they did their first BEND-RE deal back in post 1998 when the bubble got rolling, they not only doubled their bet, on suicide bet's, but they also got rid of the old wife and turned her into a young trophy wife.

In Bend, because there are so many of these 'throw-away' prior MILF wives, who got 1/2 the money, we call them 'bend-cougars', because they hang out at the local martini-bars, and prey on young studs.

Simplisticly yes, you can reduce all economic failure to relationships. The guys who dumped his wife during the boom, the wives spent their money on 'hobby boutique biz' in Bend, and some still have money left. The hubby's doubled their bets all the way to late 2007 on the BEND RE bubble, and now have negative net worth.

The trophy wive is NONE to happy, as now she's stuck caring for an old broke man, rather than a sugar daddy. So yes, simplistically you can say 'divorce' is killing our Bend, Builders.

The elite Bend Builders is a group of 24, in the past 30 days we have lost 16%.

Anonymous said...

I knew Mark, he died of liver disease.

*

I knew it he drank himself to death.

The finest way to end a Bend RE deal.

Anonymous said...

Well its official.

Nobody in Bend, OR ever committed suicide, or died.

They all died of divorce, or drinking, not sure what came first.

Real Estate doesn't kill in Bend, OR. Living kills.

It's safe to go back the RE market and shop.

Anonymous said...

I can see in six months, when the death count for our builders is in the double digits.

The apologists, will all be claiming natural causes. The stress, the stress of life.

One thing certain, that while the living may explain away happenstance, and circumstance.

Dead me tell no tales.

Anonymous said...

One thing certain, that while the living may explain away happenstance, and circumstance.


Dead men tell no tales.

Anonymous said...

I heard the ER doctor was having marriage problems. Maybe even separating. No surprise with so much money at stake.

tim said...

Hurry up and sell your vacation home in 2008, thanks to the housing bill...

Vacation-Home Hit

We've been taking for granted that lovely $250,000 ($500,000 for couples filing jointly) personal residence capital-gains-tax exclusion for about a decade. Savvy taxpayers have played hopscotch, moving from home to vacation home to the next home, etc. and avoiding income taxes on the sale of each one. That free ride is at an end.

The personal resident exclusion is still good on your personal home. However, you'll be paying taxes on the sale of your vacation home, or rental property converted to a home. The tax will be based on the amount of days the house was not a qualified personal residence divided by the total number of days you owned it. This ratio is multiplied by the amount of gain realized on the sale of the property.

Gain resulting from depreciation taken on the property after May 6, 1997 won't be included in this computation. That gain will still be taxed separately as ordinary income.

The good news:

This won't affect any sales you make this year since the law becomes effective on Jan. 1, 2009.

The ownership period to take into account as the numerator for nonqualified use also starts on Jan. 1, 2009.

Snowbirds, folks who typically summer in their principal residences up north and spend winter in their vacation homes in the south will have to wait until IRS writes up regulations interpreting the new law. It's not clear if their temporary absences will be considered a period of nonqualified use.

The new law defines unqualified use as:

any period after the last date the property is used as the principal residence of the taxpayer or spouse (regardless of use during that period), and

any period (not to exceed two years) that the taxpayer is temporarily absent by reason of a change in place of employment, health, or, to the extent provided in regulations, unforeseen circumstances, are not taken into account.

Anonymous said...

Well its hit the bigtime, not since Aug 2006, when the shire was announced has the world laughed it ass off.

http://theridiculant.metro.co.uk/2008/08/hobbits-hit-by.html

Hobbits hit by subprime crisis
August 5, 2008
London Inquirer

The Shire - the verdant, pastoral home of the Hobbits in Lord Of The Rings - has survived many things. Marauding Nazgûl, evil wizards, treacherous Hobbits and a massive campaign of industrialisation all failed to destroy the halflings' rural idyll. But where Ringwraiths and ruffians fell short, another, more powerful evil has triumphed... namely, the massive slump in the American real-estate market.

Lotr_455x130 'Watch out for bailiffs, lads.'

As a result of plummeting property prices, The Shire - a development in Bend, Oregon that was modeled after Tolkien's descriptions of hobbit houses - has been hit with a foreclosure notice. Astonishingly, it turns out that in these troubled economic times, the hobbit-wannabe market isn't quite as lucrative as the developers thought.

The dearth of fantasy fans willing to pay $899,000 to live in a mock hobbit-hole in the Pacific Northwest is blow for the project's mastermind, non-hobbit Ron Myers. 'It basically destroyed my life financially, but that’s the price of a dream,' he told the Bend Bulletin.

It's not clear if the project's collapse was down to the general undesirability of a hobbit hole as a residence, or if it was in fact a result of their failure to be hobbity enough. Several wise souls in the MetaFilter comment thread have issues with the design - a selection of quotes includes 'hideous McMansions with dopey hobbit trim'; 'Artificial thatch? WTF?'; '...it's green paint and a brass knob in the EXACT middle! Could Tolkien have been any clearer?'; and, succinctly, 'I hate Bend.'

Anonymous said...

Sheesh, this blog gets loonier by the day.

*

"Truth is always stranger than fiction, fiction has to make sense" - Mark Twain

Anonymous said...

Eugene Guard has a good story today, about the Grand Opening for Tetherow last weekend that never happened.

Now we know the strategy, rather than have had pic's and news about nobody, just release all the hype two weeks later, and tell people about all the fun the missed.

Typical BEND PR, its not what you do, but how you sell it after the fact.

Anonymous said...

I heard the ER doctor was having marriage problems. Maybe even separating. No surprise with so much money at stake.

*

Let's play this apologist logic backwards.

Given the proposition that its ok to ignore deaths in Bend, if the patient may have had 'marriage problems', in the worst fucking BEND ECONOMY in 25 years. Then it can be assumed that ALL such people will OFF THEMSELVES.

The inherent problem with this logic, it doesn't work backwards. Not all people going through a divorce off themselves, for many its the second happiest day in their life.

Pure & simple, total financial ruin, of people whose whole life ambition is to strut their stuff. When their broke, their phony wife bails, and all their phony parasite friends. This is the stuff of which BEND-OREGON is made.

When these types of people fail, their trophy wives are gone! They're no longer invited to the party's. Their life is finished.

We KNEW the BULL/SORE folk would come and have apologist explanations for BEND RE infrastructure dying, and we have been told its because of divorce.

Like I said weeks ago when these people stared dying, it doesn't take much money to go to Thailand and get and marry a 20 year old woman, even if your 70, its normal there, and $500/mo you can live quite well.

People who kill themselves, are not doing so because they're high-school sweetheart now MILF that looks like road-rooster is leaving them, for most people that would be cause for celebration.

Divorce is what happens when money dissapears from BEND shallow, hollow marriages; People in BEND that played fast and loose with flipping, and catching falling knife STD's are now completely insolvent, the wife is usually the first to go, on the assumption she is getting older, and better go find another guy with MONEY ASAP.

Trouble is the number of guys with money in BEND, frivlious, show-off money is now zilch. Will our MILF's be leaving? Or will they fall to the back-side like aging RE-HO's?

Anonymous said...

CAN'T WE JUST ALL GET ALONG AND EAT EACH OTHERS SHIT??

Some of {this blog} is silly, such as talking about 'mob hits' ... But the rumors enter in when at least one of these guys is said to have been going through a divorce.... - Ned Flanders

.................

(1) First of all Ned, the mob hit thing is very real back in the last crash { 1980's }. Contracts were taken out on people that had lost other peoples money. Big money has been lost this cycle since 2006, billions will be lost in Bend. Bend was #1; 04,05,06; money from all over the country came here, old money, Mob Money. PHD's, & Nobel Laureates lost money in LTCM, they just shrug off the lost, the mob doesn't work this way.

(2) I find the divorce issue irrelevant to the discussion. When you have people that have just lost their entire life savings, and are looking at debt that will never be paid back, then most commonly the wife will bail, and in such case this is almost always the second+ wife, being a trophy wife. It means absolutely nothing to say "There may have been an impending divorce". This to me is saying, "The recently deceased may have used the toilet". So fucking what divorce is always a by-product of financial collapse. The relationships of Bend are always about money and nothing more.

Bend has a history of losing money, and its always on Real Estate we have a 20+ year cycle of these boom/bust desert swampland RE flips. They always end in death & divorce. There is nothing new under the sun.

The fact is Bend developer's are dropping like fly's in suspicious quantity.

Billions of dollars have been lost in Bend. Much of that money was mob money, there are many people not amused by the losses. When powerful people can make 25%/yr APR forever guaranteed, they came like flys to shit, and for many years the mythology was true, then suddenly one day it ended. Now the pain, oh the pain.

bruce said...

Highlands golf comes to the high desert
Tetherow Golf Club in Bend seeks to emulate British Isles-style golf


[stunning picture]
Tetherow Golf Club’s 182-yard par-three 17th, the “Quarry Hole,” is situated in an old pumice quarry. The semi-private Bend course opened to play last week.

BEND — Random. Quirky. Spicy.

These are not words normally used to describe a golf course — especially one designed by one of the top architects in the game.

But those terms — along with more common golf course adjectives like “stunning” — are being applied to Tetherow Golf Club, Oregon’s newest golf course.

Tetherow, which opened to public play last week, is situated in a 700-acre resort development located just west of Bend. The golf course and clubhouse are owned by Spring Capital Group of Eugene, which also owns and operates Salishan Spa & Golf Resort at Gleneden Beach.

Course architect David McLay Kidd, the Scottish designer of Bandon Dunes fame, said he wanted to bring “that random, quirky feel of golf” typically associated with seaside links courses to central Oregon’s High Desert country.

“We were just trying to get something that looked and played, you now, in a British Isles style — something different from what exists in central Oregon and probably something different from what exists in most places in the U.S.,” said Kidd.

The result is a heathland-style golf course that is different from most other Northwest courses in several respects. The tee-to-green use of fescue grass gives Tetherow a drier, less verdant look — not to mention faster fairways and slower greens.

It also is the only course in Oregon that sends out a forecaddy with every group, to better help golfers find their way — and their ball.

Finally, this is one of the few golf courses where players are in danger of incurring lost-ball penalties on shots hit dead center down the fairway.

The disappearing straight shot — which may be a wee bit too “different” for some golfers — happened more than once during the first few days of play at Tetherow. Balls that failed to carry grass-, brush- and lava rock-covered knolls that sprout from the fairways — or ran farther than expected and dove into one of the fairway hazards — sometimes could not be found, even with help of a forecaddy.

Such hazards definitely add more spice — and strokes — to the game than, say, a simple sand-filled fairway bunker.

Throw in some deep pot bunkers, a couple of man-made lakes and rolling, steep-pitched putting surfaces, and you get a sense of what Tetherow director of golf Martin Chuck had in mind when he said “Tetherow is like a spicy version of Kidd’s other work.”

Kidd’s work, as most Oregon golfers are well aware, includes the original course at Bandon Dunes, a layout just named (again) as one of the “top courses you can play” by Golf Digest Magazine. Kidd also designed Nanea on the Big Island of Hawaii and a month ago opened — with Prince Andrew in attendance — the Castle Course at St. Andrews, the first new course built at golf’s birthplace in 100 years.

“I’m the one to blame if you’re not having fun,” a smiling Kidd said in a Scottish brogue as his golf cart pulled up to a group of golf writers participating in a press preview round at Tetherow last week.

Kidd had apparently already taken a few verbal lumps over the rough-covered humps in the fairways. In truth, however, most of those hazards should be avoidable once players become familiar with the layout and with just how far the ball runs on the close-cropped fescue fairways.

And it’s not like Kidd put the rocks in fairways to deliberately frustrate golfers.

“Most of them were already there and I just worked around ‘em,” he said.

Golfers will learn to work around the hummocks of thick grass, as well, because “you’re probably going to have a worse lie in those than anywhere else on the golf course,” said Tetherow head PGA professional Caleb Anderson.

“David gives you plenty of room to play short of those and still have a decent shot in,” Anderson said. “If you challenge them, you just have to be prepared for the fact that you could end up in one.”

Anderson said Tetherow’s layout provides plenty of opportunities for bump-and-run shots. In fact, he recommends landing shots short of the greens and let them roll on rather than trying to “stick” shots close to the pin.

“Part of that is it’s a new course and the greens are still a little firm, and part of it is that behind the greens is really where the danger is. Be short of the green and you can play almost any shot, but I can’t think of a hole on the golf course where going long leaves you anything,” Anderson said.

Meanwhile, Kidd, who fell in love with central Oregon while doing the early design work for Tetherow, has moved his company, DMK Golf Design, to Bend.

The course originally was going to be called Cascade Highlands, but developers opted instead to name it after Oregon pioneer Solomon Tetherow, who led an 1845 wagon train that passed nearby.

As for the par-72, 7,298-yard (from the back “Kidd Tees”) golf course itself, it is a handful. The USGA has given it a course rating of 74.8, and a slope rating of 141, making it among the 10 toughest courses in the state.

Played from the black and tan tees, which will be used by most members and guests, the courses measure 6,705 and 6,111 yards, respectively. The course ratings/slopes are: black, 72.5/131; tan, 69.3/124.

“Because they’re fescue and have slope to them, we keep the greens around nine feet or so on the Stimpmeter,” Anderson said. That’s considerably slower than most other top courses in the region, but the set-up also encourages the use of the putter on shots well off the green.

For the time being, Tetherow’s challenges are open to any golfer with the $175 greens fee. However, when a hotel planned for the site is built, the course will be restricted to members (mostly owners of the property’s 379 homesites) and hotel guests.

No timeline has been set for construction of the hotel, according to Tom Conner Jr. of Spring Capital Group. The Eugene-based investment company owns the golf course and clubhouse and is developing 188 of the homesites. OB Sports Golf Management of Scottsdale, Ariz., was hired to manage the golf course.

Until a hotel is built, public tee times will be offered on a space-available basis, between 9:40 a.m. and 12:20 p.m. daily.

The $175 greens fee includes a forecaddy and use of the club’s practice facility. Electric carts are an additional $20 per person.

For tee times, call (541) 388-2582. For more information on Tetherow resort and homesites, log on to: www.tetherow.com.

I drove through this morning. It looks really slow, not much of a construction crew-just around the clubhouse and building a couple of rock gatestands. I saw two fairway mowers out but no other grounds crew. No golfers but it was only about 9:30. One house is pretty far along, other barely started if at all.

It will be interesting to see how they go forward.

And WTF is "semi-private". Does that mean expensive enough that riffraff won't bother you?

bruce said...

FYI: http://www.registerguard.com/rg/Weekly/Outdoors/story.csp?cid=126038&sid=40&fid=1

bruce said...

New post at juniper-ridge-info.blogspot.com detailing how acreage went from employment to residential over the last few years, plan by plan.

Anonymous said...

SUNRIVER INVADED BY LITTLE GREEN MEN!

First it was perpetual motion, then perpetual money. Now Bend is targeted to be an 'ET' resort.


Oregon Man Catches Possible UFO on Video
Bend Bulletin, Aug 5, 2008


SUNRIVER, OR - Home video from a man in central Oregon showing what appears to be a UFO has experts scratching their heads.

"This is odd, I said, 'I've got to go get my video camera.' So I ran upstairs to the office and grabbed my video camera and the tripod," said Blake Lundstrom. He had been enjoying the view of gliders from the Sunriver airport outside his office sunday morning when what he calls a ufo appeared out of nowhere.

"The glider was just about 1000 feet off the ground here and the object was way up in the sky up here when I first saw it pretty much we are looking due west," Lundstrom said.

He followed the object for 45 minutes as it traveled curving south and then north towards Bend, Oregon.

"It came way out here there until it became so distant and then I lost it."

Lundstrom, who owns a small private television production company in Sunriver, has been looking for answers online, thinking it might be a weather balloon but can't pinpoint what he saw.

Bob Grossfeld at the Sunriver Observatory watched the video and isn't sure either. At first glance he thought it was the planet Venus.

"A spacecraft would be a constant movement like this, a planet would be more like this. It would be very, very, very slow and it certainly wouldn't change directions so yeah anything is possible," said Grossfield.

Grossfeld used numerous Web sites to see if the space station or any satellites were in the area during that time sunday morning. nothing turned up.

He says these type of sightings aren't unusual. that same day many people in the area saw what turned out to be a fire ball just past midnight early sunday morning which illuminated the sky. the unusual part of lundstrom's sighting was the length of time the object was visible.

"There's certainly tons of things out there.. no clue..we've seen some things here theres no way we can do all the tracking, we've seen objects that are running triangles," Grossfield said.

"I said if I don't go shoot this no one is going to believe me and now I have some video footage and some people think I am crazy but it's unexplained," said Lundstrom.

Anonymous said...

"Oregon Man Catches Possible UFO on Video"

it's a hobbit perpetual flying machine. this means the hobbits are evacuating Bend.

Anonymous said...

Oregon Man Catches Possible UFO on Video

The Pregnant Man, the Balloon Man, the 140-Pound Tumor ... and now THIS?!?

This place really is Weirdsville USA.

All that's lacking is our own version of the Montauk Monster.

Anonymous said...

If you have a dumb idea or a crazy belief, you belong in Bend.

Anonymous said...

Oregon Man Catches Possible UFO on Video

The Pregnant Man, the Balloon Man, the 140-Pound Tumor ... and now THIS?!?

*

Four developers die and not a peep from the BULL, but ET inseminates a lesbian with a beard, and a guy finds a source of helium and fills all his condoms, ... and its news in BEND.

The sad thing is when you type 'news-google' and 'bend oregon' this is all you get.

This is NOT an accident, this is class COINTELPRO.

The powers that be, are setting up the world to ignore all news coming from Bend.

tim said...

Enough of this nonsense. Just please tell me more about whether residents can hang sheets out to dry on Awbrey Butte.

Anonymous said...

"If you have a dumb idea or a crazy belief, you belong in Bend."

and if you have both, you are already here

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Vacancy rates up, but not by much
Businesses are in a better position for lease negotiations, but loans could be more difficult to secure, report says

By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin
Published: August 06. 2008 4:00AM PST

Four empty spaces, once occupied by real estate-related companies, mark the commercial development near the corner of Franklin Avenue and Northeast Second Street in Bend. The city’s office vacancy rate was 13.5 percent in the second quarter of 2008, which ended June 30.

The latest report on commercial real estate in Bend and Redmond shows vacancy rates rising, but there are some bright spots and deals are getting done.

Tenants are in a favorable position when it comes to lease negotiations, but they may find it difficult to get a loan, Darren Powderly, a broker with Compass Commercial Real Estate Services in Bend, said in the quarterly Compass Points newsletter this week.

Overall, vacancy rates for office, industrial and retail space haven’t increased too much, said Powderly, who compiles the report from phone surveys of Bend building owners in each category. He also surveys industrial building owners in Redmond.

“A lot of people are working off tighter budgets and restructuring their businesses for the tougher economy,” he said. “But they are staying in business. It’s a great time to renegotiate existing leases or look … for new space without increasing costs.”

Bend’s industrial vacancy rate dropped from 14.2 percent in the first quarter to 12.1 percent for the second quarter thanks largely to Bend-based solar equipment manufacturer PV Powered, which moved into a 100,000-square-foot building in northeast Bend that had been vacant, Powderly said.

Redmond’s industrial vacancy rate, meanwhile, rose from 21.6 percent in the first quarter to 23.1 percent in the second quarter, according to Compass.

Redmond’s rate is expected to stabilize as new construction all but stops and existing inventory is absorbed, Powderly said.

Vacancy rates in Bend’s office market have been rising for more than a year — at the end of the second quarter, 275,928 square feet of vacant office space was available, a 13.5 percent vacancy rate. That’s up from 5.9 percent at the end of first quarter 2007, according to Compass.

The abundance of “For Lease” signs around the city paints an accurate picture of increased vacancies in Bend’s office market, Powderly said.

“There was a lot of speculative building fueled by cheap money,” he said. “Now a lot of those buildings are coming online and tenants aren’t there. That’s where we’re going to be for a while.”

Lending has tightened significantly on the commercial real estate front as banks have made loans available only to businesses that have the means to repay them, said Chris Farrens, a certified public accountant with Trimble & Everton in Bend.

Farrens works with banks to help them understand his business clients’ situations, he said.

“The environment has sure changed,” Farrens said. “The amount of stuff, for lack of a better word, that banks want to get even a basic loan has changed dramatically. (Businesses) have to give good evidence that going forward they have the capacity to pay the loan back.”

In some cases, commercial real estate, which boomed later than the housing market, will follow residential real estate on the way down, Powderly said.

For landlords, the goal should be to offer attractive lease rates or work with tenants to avoid carrying costs of an empty building, Powderly said.

“Now is the time for landlords to give a little in order to save a lot in the long term,” he said.

The city’s retail vacancy rate, 6.8 percent, is somewhat skewed this quarter because it does not include the McMahan’s Furniture building, which could be vacant in the third quarter if it is not sold after the store completes its liquidation sale.

Bend’s retail market could be vulnerable in a prolonged economic downturn, Powderly said.

Lease renegotiations are a common tactic for landlords who want to keep struggling tenants or entice new tenants into their development, said Bill Smith, managing partner of Riverbend Limited Partnership.

Smith is the owner of The Old Mill District, which has little vacancy, he said.

Sales have been off about 5 percent to 25 percent in the shopping district, said Smith, who receives monthly sales reports from tenants.

The district is doing well with only three retail vacancies totaling 4,000 square feet out of 250,000 square feet of space, he said. That’s a vacancy rate of less than 2 percent.

But lease rates could be lowered to entice new tenants or keep existing ones that are struggling, Smith said.

“We’ll lower the buggers if we have to, to maintain occupancy,” he said. “We want to keep our successful businesses down there. If they know how to merchandise and sell, we’re willing to work with them.”

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Correction
Published: August 05. 2008 4:00AM PST

In a story headlined “3 builders, though hard-hit, remain optimistic,” which appeared Sunday, Aug. 3, on Page G1, a statement made by Pahlisch Homes President Dennis Pahlisch was incomplete. Pahlisch said his company can remain solvent without selling a home for up to two years as long as the banks the company has relationships with continue to renew their loans.

Additionally, the company sued by Bank of the Cascades was described incorrectly. Mayberry Mountain LLC is not a holding company of Pahlisch Homes.

The Bulletin regrets the errors.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The above correction was almost certainly a result of Pahlischs' Braggadocio Gone Bad.

See, when you owe a bank a shitload, and you go to the local media claiming that you will EASILY WEATHER THE STORM (so no one backs out of their current contracts, or doesn't aproach you in the first place), then THE BANK wants its MONEY.

Pahlisch was probably IMMEDIATELY approached by their lender, presented said article, and demanded repayment given that Pahlisch is awash in money. Pahlisch did the only thing they could, and called Te Bulletin. The article would be Evidence #1 in the lawsuit, Pahlisch needed Evidence #2 Correction to get printed.

This is a damned if you do or don't situation; claim poverty & the business almost certainly dies. Claim rock-solid affluence, and here come the bankers.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Thi is the original statement:

Dennis Pahlisch, president of Pahlisch Homes, said that even if his company didn’t sell any homes in the next two years, it has enough cash and reserves on hand to make it another 24 months before it would be forced into reorganization.

Essentially combining this with the correction, is a tacit admission that ALL THREE of the interviewed builders (Pahlisch, Randy Don't-Ask-Don't-Tell Sebastian, and Woodhill) are FLAT ASS BROKE.

Pahlisch is basically saying he wants LOANS, or he'll default. Negotiating tactics have changed in Bend from Kool-Aid FUELED LIES, to Failure-fueled BLACKMAIL.

"Gimme another loan or I default on EVERYTHING."

Took it straight to The Bulletin too. Nice.

Anonymous said...

The Bull regrets the errors.

*

Enough said. It brings crocodile tears to the eyes.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Another bend builder/developer has passed. Mark R. Swisher, of Bend

WTF? Is this a "normal" death rate for these guys? Born in 1960... cripes, he was young.

Reminds me of Leaving Las Vegas...

Ben Sanderson, an alcoholic Hollywood screenwriter who lost everything because of his drinking, arrives in Las Vegas to drink himself to death...

Anonymous said...

I have a different take Homer. It's just another BEND 'BOSSHOGG' HIT.

On the one hand HOLLER&BLEDSOE are loaning builders money to eat and continue building, on the other hand the BULL is beating Sebastian, Pahlisch, outsiders down. Like Sebastian, Pahlisch, sold out his Valley biz, and moved OP to BEND in 2002 when the GOLD-RUSH 'green-light' was turned on by TRIBE-BUSH. EASY MONEY everyone knew that BEND was going GOLD the stampede started in 2002.

HOLLERN most likely blames the over-supply on these VALLEY-BOYZ that came over and saturated his market.

The BULL needs to have story's about BUILDER's going down, because they are ALL going down. Yet, they'll only bad mouth newbies, that are in competition with HOLLERN, who as everyone in this FORUM knows is the BULL.

*

Legend Homes Acquires Corvallis-Based Pahlisch Homes; Local Builder Closes Sale Today on 237 Prime Acres and 1,000 Approved Home Building Sites in Benton County.

Business Editors/Real Estate Writers

PORTLAND, Ore.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 8, 2002

Legend Homes:

What: CEO and Owner of Legend Homes, David Oringdulph, announced today that the company has acquired the Corvallis-based division of Pahlisch Homes from founder Dennis Pahlisch. Sale terms were not disclosed. As long-term industry colleagues, David Oringdulph and Dennis Pahlisch said that shared professional values about integrity, high...

Anonymous said...

If nothing were too sell, ...

(1) Pahlisch has 2 years of cash-flow, divide by 10.

(2) Sebastian has no cash-flow, add 1 yr, he can borrow from Bledsoe.

(3) HOLLERN has how many years of cash? Considering he's got 20-30 yrs of inventory north&east of Redmond, and 10 year average south. We know that resets will continue to 2012, and that BEND will be fucked to 2018.

(4) BLEDSOE has how many years of cash to feed starving area builders? If his cigar club sells little to no memberships, his dreams will be broken, and his love for this town will go south. I predict he sells very few $50k cigar-club memberships for his 'club' next to the D&D.

(5) The BULL is dying, I predict layoff's, and I predict they move ops to Walla-Walla, where it safe. Hollern isn't going to feed them anymore, and they don't need any 'free land' in Bend. They'll sell but to whom?

Remember that our 'BULL' is really a collection of a dozen small rural papers all over the PNW, HOLLERN&BULL are siamese twins sharing same asshole because of the HOLLERN providing the BULL land. HOLLERN has little to no future use of the BULL, and vice versa, but they'll NEVER bad mouth him, this is why they'll move ops to Walla-Walla, and just focus on profitable papers, and dump the losers.

The BULL is a loser, Walla-Walla is a great wine producer, and has a great future, and is located at the intersection near major freeways.

It's ALL going down, and its ALL Pahlischs & Sebastians Fault, that's my angle on where this "manufacturing consent is going", its NOT HOLLERNS fault. It's the fault of greedy valley boyz.

Trouble is Pahlisch&Sebastian were piggy-backers, back when HOLLERN set the bull up with their ten acres in 1998, is when HOLLERN put the whole NEW BEND is ASPEN marketing package together. He got hit by the 2nd term bush-tribe easy money wave in 2001/2002 that made BEND #1, and all the piggy-backers came;

The truth is even if NO piggy-backers had came and fed at the HOLLERN pig trough, there would still be too many STD's in Bend, and their would still have been a collapse.

Yarrow, Brasada, Ironhorse, NWXC, ... there are dozens of HOLLERN-HOTELS setting empty in the region, and they're all going down, but we'll not hear about it from the BULL.

Anonymous said...

Another bend builder/developer has passed. Mark R. Swisher, of Bend

WTF? Is this a "normal" death rate for these guys? Born in 1960... cripes, he was young.

*

Pay no attention to dying developers homer, we have been told that their may have been a personal problem.

The fact is our developers are dying and quick, 16% to date of the major's, and in less than 30 days.

Six months, and the inventory just might get cleared,

One signal is CLEAR, move to BEND to build, and you'll be dead.

A more clear signal has never been sent.

I was thinking, and its always the pussy, but it could be someone else, but I don't want to do it, Autopsy's are county doc's, they're generally truthful, like doc-m, we could tell if he died before or after the water plunge. Swishler(hic) bless his heart, could have been final stage of cancer ( liver failure if true ), on the other hand, me thinks is alky from what I have heard.

Getting all the full Autopsy reports online, as these developers die, would be very useful, so least we can be factual, hell it may turn out that the coroner is in the back pocket of RE like everybody else in this county.

Anonymous said...

Pahlisch said his company can remain solvent without selling a home for up to two years as long as the banks the company has relationships with continue to renew their loans.

*

Yes, but as we all know, renewing losing relationships in a 'falling knife' market? Is the 'bank' CACB? I doubt it.

Let's get factual here, even since late 2006 old KURATEK had to biz with UBS ( a large mob bank ) at 20%, and they even pulled out.

By 2007, the rates had gone over very high, by 2008 astronomic because of the risk.

In this thread homer use's the term 'bank hit', but lets remember that the banks haven't been loaning the money for awhile, its now 'PRIVATE-MONEY' that keeps BEND afloat, HOLLERN has some, BLEDSOE, and the out of town "MOB BOYZ".

You can be certain that BLEDSOE has convinced out-of-town lucky-jocks also to loan money to BEND, for the 'BEST In 20 years", which is now a one year old mythology.

No legitimate bank that will survive that be US-BANK or BofA is going to feed BEND RE, banks aren't stupid, we already have Bends finest citizens off themselves, thus personal loans mean nothing.

We're already into year-two of borrowing, and it ain't coming back for at least another 6-8 years. Nobody is going to survive, unless they cut their expenses and put away cash two years ago.

The majority of people here are taking on MORE debt. The basis of course is that they OWN LAND, mostly up&down I-97, but huge lots of land all over town. That as collateral means SHIT, because NOBODY wants to BUY it!

THE BULL or others including the CITY, always say we have a land-shortage.

In the next 2-4 years all this collateral land empty lots in town is going to be sold at auction, most of our builders will be dead.

What kind of fucking legitimate bank would be involved?

Thus you deal with private-banks, e.g. personal money, but then you have to have REAL collateral, that will soon be gone.

Eventually all of BEND will be owned by outside of town loan-sharks.

Welcome to Bend.

Anonymous said...

Another bend builder/developer has passed. Mark R. Swisher, of Bend WTF? Is this a "normal" death rate for these guys? Born in 1960... cripes, he was young.

I knew Mark Swisher. Don't know what specific health problems he might have had but he was extremely overweight. People DO sometimes die of natural causes, incredible as that may seem to some here.

Anonymous said...

The BULL is a loser, Walla-Walla is a great wine producer, and has a great future, and is located at the intersection near major freeways.

The boom in Walla Walla (such as it was) is over. Developers recently pulled the plug on a big new "upscale" golf course/residential development (can't remember the name) that was supposed to be built on the outskirts.

Walla Walla does have some decent wineries in the vicinity and a pretty downtown (nicer than Bend's really) but is hotter than HELL in summer and is REALLY in the middle of nowhere. (Close to freeways, yes, but once you get on ém you still gotta drive four hours to get anywhere.)

tim said...

For the first time, my kids are complaining about friends moving away. Walla Walla, Seattle, and Vegas are the destinations. I expect we'll still have kids coming into the schools, but we're also seeing a huge churn as some people have to move away. One of the families had only been here two years. Contractors follow the work, I guess.

Notice the destinations for these kid-filled families are different from the older people leaving. The old people I know who bailed (using the weather as an excuse) went to Arizona, Nevada, and back to California.

Anonymous said...

I grew up 7 miles from walla walla on the oregon side, and let me tell you it does get hotter than hell we had the nations high in the early 70's 115 degrees. As a kid we would ride down the road and pop the big tar bubbles in the road. Fogged in cold miserable winters way worse than here This area has walla walla beat to. downwinders from hanford high cancer rate. And i won't drink the wine from there. The onion farmers put so much chemical into the ground years ago and now it's wine country.They can have it, calis you go for it.I'm staying here don't have much debt low mortgage i can live easy on ten bucks an hour if i have to.

Anonymous said...

I didn't say "Walla-Walla" was a nice place, I simply said that the BULL, or what's left after the parent company sells what they can will move HQ to there, to be as far as possible from Bend.

Walla Walla is a real nice old down-town that is quite large, its a college town, and has several prisons, and Milton-Freewater is on the border, for tax-free purchasing.

It is wine-country like it or, and it is close to the Wallowas, a very nice place, and near a real river, and the Snake River as well.

Yes, the boom is over in Walla-Walla, but it will come back years before Bend, Wally-World is NOT overbuilt, and developers ain't killing themselves.

We have now reached the critical inflection point, where almost everybody realizes that if you don't get out of Bend soon, you'll probably get taken out in an 'LA-Pine' box.

Anonymous said...

Talks today about 'coat-tailers' how Pahlisch, and Sebastian, came to Bend from the valley, to the RE gold rush of Bend.

While it was HOLLERN that 'salted' and found the 'gold' other's came from all over.

As we have noted, it ain't the originators of the 'claims' that are killing themselves, its the guys who bought salted claims late in the game, well past the so called 'greatest fool period', Bend simply ran out of fools.

All gold-rushs end this way, and most of the money is made selling 'kit', e.g. pans, eggs, axes, ... and of course 'claims'.

The likes of Pahlisch & Sebastian, drove our little lots from $100k, to $300k. That made it almost impossible for the cali-builders who followed to make any money.

Today you can't sell anything over $300k, and most paid that for their lot. So even the most small builder is fucked in Bend.

There were guys that made a lot of money 2002->2006 they were material suppliers, and most sold-out by 2007, or closed.

The gold-rush is over, the BULL has been very orderly in the shut-down and selling of the Bend inventory to the tier three suckers, so called 'Best in 20', these are the folks that will kill themselves.

Once the BULL's job is done, they can't stay in Bend, and thus they'll pull out HQ, besides, they're biggest & best asset is the HOLLERN land they got for free, even in todays market the $10M property must be at worth at least $1M. Move op's to Wally-World, sell the losers, sell the BEND office, and retire.

The problem for the BULL is that in 1-2 years there will be no more live suckers in Bend, and thus their mission will have been accomplished. It will be another 20 years before another fleecing can take place in Bend, thus its essential to shut the OP down, and move the gold-rush biz, to a town with promise & future.

Anonymous said...

More on this 'borrowing' thing, the tone of todays BULL is that their 'scapegoat' Pahlisch might survive two years, if he can just keep borrowing his way out of the hole.

Note the 'easy-money' aka BORROWING is what caused the fucking HOLE.

It's quite amazing that this late in the game, given that easy-money has been over more than two years, that folks are being quoted by the BULL as saying, "I could stick it out in Bend, for 1+ years, if I could just borrow $1M, ... "

This is BLEDSOE talk, "I have tons of money, you hurtin', you got some land, talk to me, and I'll LOAN you some cash", ... Oh, yea likes its coming back.

So here we are 2 years into the collapse, 4+ years away from bottom, and just keep borrowing, that easy fucking money.

It's quite looney, the proposition used to be borrow $250k and it will be $1M or $1B given 25%/yr APR forever in BEND! That's double your money every three years. Why work?

Today there is no hope of positive appreciation, now its PURE negative, whats the fucking solution? More borrowing,

Your RE assets' are falling, you have no cash, what do you do? You borrow of course!

Dont' get me wrong about money, if you have NO debt, and good credit, and income, you can RIGHT NOW get 4% money from US-BANK even stated income is still avail if you have over 750+ FICO. Trouble is our builders, and BEND-HUSTLERS, have fucking 400- FICO's, and a ton of debt, ... Thus the ONLY money is 'mob' money, or blood money. The BANK ain't going to loan money.

In effect what the BULL is saying today, is its OK to stick in BEND another two years, and borrow MOB MONEY, cuz everything will be OK. Like SHIT, your going to lose ALL the collateral you can't sell.

This is what is happening today, the TIER THREE builders that came in last, and paid top dollar for BEND RE LAND, are now taking out 10% cash value loans, and the SHARKS fucking KNOWN there is NO chance of paying back.

In summary, more suicides to come.

Anonymous said...

BIG TIME CUNTS - WE JUST HIT US-NEWS & WORLD DISTORT - HOLD ON FOR THE RIDE.

http://www.usnews.com/blogs/the-home-front/2008/08/06/hobbit-crisis-the-shire-in-foreclosure.html


Hobbit Crisis: The Shire in Foreclosure
August 06, 2008 04:34 PM ET | Luke Mullins | Permanent Link

The nation's housing bust hit a painful new milestone last week with the initiation of foreclosure proceedings against The Shire, a once blissful land of hobbits and happiness inspired by J.R.R. Tolkien.

From the Bulletin, in Bend, Ore.:

The rise and fall of Bend's real estate economy has resulted in foreclosure proceedings against The Shire, a village-themed concept in southeast Bend patterned after J.R.R. Tolkien's "Lord of the Rings" series....

The project—whose features include unique stonework, artificial thatched roofs, terraced gardens and a network of streams and ponds with a pathway leading to what's called "The Ring Bearer's Court"—captured media attention outside Central Oregon, including a December 2006 feature on BBC Radio.

You think L.A. was overpriced? Check out the listings in The Shire.

From the Bulletin:

One home has sold for $650,000 since the project broke ground in fall 2006.... Another home, called Butterfly Cottage, is nearly completed but has not been sold. It's listed for $899,000. The 3,200-square-foot home overlooks an amphitheater, has 26-foot-high ceilings and interior finishes that include bamboo flooring, a Japanese soaking tub and granite countertops. The house has a "hobbit hole" in the backyard for storing garden supplies.

Both of the homes have artificial thatched roofs and a storybook look that includes dragon-shaped support beams.

Like other, more mainstream developments, the project was impaled by the credit crisis and a dearth of sales. But The Shire was also hurt by its own unique shortcomings.

Quoth the Bulletin:

"Some people were turned off by living in 'Disneyland,' " said [Ron Meyers, who came up with the concept]. "It's more of an artists' community for a certain market segment that wanted something different. There's been enough people that have come through that would say, 'What a wonderful concept.' But then the market crashed, and everyone [went] home."

Greg Steckler, a designer of the project, is the lone owner of a Shire home, where he lives with his wife and mother-in-law. He calls himself the resident greeter and hobbit, after the joyful characters who occupied a magical village called The Shire in The Lord of the Rings.

I'm not writing this Steckler off yet. Anyone who can persuade his mother-in-law to move into a home for make-believe creatures can certainly talk a banker out of foreclosure.

Anonymous said...

Luke,

The force is strong in Bend.

Now that 'nofollow' has been removed, the resistance is no longer in the dark side of 'goolge' Universe.

The collapse of "The Shire", the suicide Goblins & Orc's in mass is now international news.

Darth,

Anonymous said...

The nation's housing bust hit a painful new milestone last week with the initiation of foreclosure proceedings against The Shire, a once blissful land of hobbits and happiness inspired by J.R.R. Tolkien.

*

Happiness, & Bliss?? Are they talking about the same country?

Here in Orygun, we call "The Shire", the Dead Zone, Orc's ( builders ) & Goblin's ( developers ) dropping like fly's.

Happiness for whom?

Bliss for whom?

The end is near.

Anonymous said...

Homer,

You lead in this weeks thread "nofollow, ... google black-listing Bend RE blogs in care of City Hall" while important, we could get critical-mass this week if the thread led right into the the mob-bank, shire-hobbit connection.

We're NOT going to get this thread to stick if 'idiots' ( Mencken verbiage for the Press ) have to wade through a short history of 'nofollow'. I suggest you move that block to the end of this weeks thread, and let shit hit the fan.

Right now there are over 50 INTL News with comments available on this story, if we post them all with 'bendbubble2.blogspot.com', and do you do the above. Then we can make this site #1.

Google "suicide hobbit bend", #1, we're always #1.

p.s. somebody tell Ned Flanders to remove the 'nofolow' from his blog. Why the fuck is he leaving that enabled? Ignorance? Statement? Contempt? Exceptional-ism?

Bart

Anonymous said...

There may be something to the ET ( aliens seen in Sunriver ), and the Hobbit connection.

Anonymous said...


The Case Against Ivins: DNA, E-Mails and a Poem

Washington Post - 1 hour ago
Federal authorities today unsealed some of the evidence collected against Bruce E. Ivins, the Fort Detrick, Md., bioweapons researcher who died in an apparent suicide after being told he was the prime suspect in the 2001 anthrax attacks.

*

The FBI tells us via their loyal press, that the guy was guilty because of suicide.

In Bend we're told to ignore suicide, that shit just happens.

In all likelihood the FBI drove the guy nuts, with innuendo, and spying.

In Bend there is complete silence, unless the 'mark' is buying a development, then he is treated as a hero. There after persona-non-grata.

Perhaps in a century or two, the Bend media will unseal the autopsy reports of Bend's finest citizen builders & developers?

Anonymous said...

E-Mails and a Poem

->

That's it, guilty.

You never know, suicide may be to this decade, what frisbee or hula-hoop were to earlier times.

Virtually all government problems can be solved using this mechanism. Can't find the bad guy? Then just drive a random person crazy, who can't hire the best lawyer that money can buy. The other suspect that was on the FBI list got $2.5M for harassment, this guy obviously didn't have the retainer CASH to hire the right lawyer.

Anonymous said...

Q: Should I put rel="nofollow" on the link to my comments page? A: Probably not, because lots of interesting discussion can happen there.

*

Homer, you yourself was bitching a while back why your comments were not in the search engine(s), I ignored it then, as its not my site. Then when mike questioned the other day why there was nothing on the net with regards to Bend-Suicides and started digging around, because I knew we had written tons of shit for weeks.

Then I discovered that since April 2008, all the 'nasty' BEND-RE blogs had been black-listed, such that the comments were being ignored by the search engines, this is what 'nofollow' does.

This significance of the April 2, 08 was that was when BP published the pic's of the FREE LAND that HOLLERN gave to the BULL(bulletin) in 1998. Mid-stream in that thread the 'nofollow' appears.

Somebody complained to google at high-levels that BEND-RE blogs were SPAM.

Your quote above from google is from 2005, when they created the glue, this is not an issue for you, because comments require a graphic keyword, thus we get no robot spam.

Then along comes april-2008, and magically all our BEND-RE blogs are black-listed, yet not in PDX, or elsewhere.

I might had caught this earlier, but as you might have remember I was absent from this shit-hole blogosphere internet shit in the spring and early summer, I only returned a few months ago.

In 2005 'nofollow' meant one thing, in the cut&paste you put down, by 2008, 'nofollow' means don't even bother caching this shit in search-engines.

bruce said...

Buster, you've been on a roll. You send your wife out of town or what?

I'll bring news of Kuratek, JR, etc. back later. And autopsy reports? Hmmm....

BTW, that lengthy treatise on Exec Sessions I was going to email? It requires a signature. And it's getting bigger. Jim Clinton himself stated to me that he thinks a lot of what they discuss in secret is wrong. Hmmm... What is the best time for maximum impact?

Marge said...

Don't know for sure...gossip..Woodhill is defaulting on 43 Mil with CO banks. News this AM from the gossip queens.

Marge said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Marge said...

I knew Mark Swisher. Don't know what specific health problems he might have had but he was extremely overweight. People DO sometimes die of natural causes, incredible as that may seem to some here.
You must not have known Mark..he was not over weight. He did die of Liver disease. I know his Ex.

LavaBear said...

Bank Fraud (PDF Alert)

Amazing what you find poking around the NOD's for 5 minutes. Pronghorn, The Highlands, downtown Condo.

Anonymous said...

Hmmm... What is the best time for maximum impact?

*

That's a tough question. It depends on the result, do you want max impact to do something about the issue, then wait for a slow news day/cycle right now there is just too much news.

It depends on your goal? If you goal is torment, then anytime is max-impact.

If your goal is to change the way business is done in Bend, then just start bombarding Salem, OR with ethics complaints, by law the state AG is required to check it out.

Trying to solve the problem inhouse with the boyz, is like discussing the chicken/egg problem with the wolves.

The MAX impact will NEVER fucking come from BEND, the max impact will come from Salem-OR the State Capitol. Business will be as usual until the State passes down indictments and complaints against the elected and entitled.

Anonymous said...

Amazing what you find poking around the NOD's for 5 minutes. Pronghorn, The Highlands, downtown Condo.

*

Lava, thats all stuff of 'david shelofsky' he's already going down, like it says for 'fraud'.

That's just the tip of the iceberg, but in the day, say three years ago, his team was the luv-child of city-hall, they got whatever they wanted.

TOO FUCKING BAD ITS HARD TO FOLLOW CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS IN THIS SHIT HOLE TOWN.

'Desertscape,llc' one of his, and my favorite, they were fwd bagmen for Walmart, go in buy up, talk PC, then do the all switch-aroo once they acquired, incidently their walmart connections got them a lot clout, so much clout that every bank in town literally bent over back-ward to give them unlimited cash, which was their down-fall.

I sort of feel sorry, I mean its really not all their fault that every bank in town was send whell-barrels of cash their way, and every POL was on the recieving end, everybody knew that a friend of Walmart, was good person to know, and work with. The inherent problem of course was they got more money than than they needed, and bought MORE shit than they needed, and well ...

EVENTUALLY YOU HAVE TO PAY IT ALL BACK OR GO TO JAIL, OR DIE!

tim said...

>>Don't know for sure...gossip..Woodhill is defaulting on 43 Mil with CO banks. News this AM from the gossip queens.

I wonder what it's like now to show up for work in the morning at those banks.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Jim Clinton himself stated to me that he thinks a lot of what they discuss in secret is wrong.

What?

Clarify, please.

What they are talking about is "illegal"? Or the fact that they are talking about "public" topics in private is illegal?

Doin' good Brucey....

hank said...

Probably the latter... talking public shit in private (Exec) sessions.

As somebody who was also required to only discuss public things in a public session (hell, you can't even email you thoughts to another elected, then get a reply, then reply back to the reply... since that is a 'private' discussion meant for public meetings), I am familiar with the rules, and also the complaint process.

"BTW, that lengthy treatise on Exec Sessions I was going to email? It requires a signature. And it's getting bigger. Jim Clinton himself stated to me that he thinks a lot of what they discuss in secret is wrong. Hmmm... What is the best time for maximum impact?"
+++

As mentioned by others, what is your goal?

As I have already busted your balls repeatedly over this, BruceyPussy's goal (IMHO) is just to spout off about what you ain't gonna do.

All talk and no action, YOU FUCKING PUSSY TEASE ASSHOLE.

I feel like I am back in high school with the cheerleader who is just a tease.

Dumb Fuck Bruce Pussy.

hank said...

"Jim Clinton himself stated to me that he thinks a lot of what they discuss in secret is wrong."
+++

Of course it is true. That is how things are done... discuss it all in detail and line it all up behind closed doors, then vote in public, without a word being spoken.

And Jim Clinton also knows that he is very safe telling YOU (BruceyPussy)that fact, since you ain't gonna do SHIT about it but blather endlessly about what you might someday do, when you get around to it... eventually. After you have signed the complaint. And printed off the 100 pages. And then photocopied the complaint. And then bragged about the complaint to the BB2 blog buttplug buddies. And then....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

BB2 blog buttplug buddies

BB2BBB?

OK, I get first shot at that domain.

BB2BBB.com

Anonymous said...

Below from Hatfield, the other 'doc' who got $6M ( whoops I said $2.5M earlier, this is double kuratek ). Then ask, why would Ivin's have killed himself, Oh yea, the FBI promised his own son $25M to testify against his father. BUSH-TRIBE must have old gay-edgar-hoover with a permanent erection.

...
"My girlfriend's home was also searched," said Steven Hatfill in July 2002 after being declared a "person of interest" in the case.
Don't Miss


"She was manhandled by the FBI upon their entry [and] not immediately shown the search warrant. Her apartment was wrecked while FBI agents screamed at her that I had killed five people and that her life would never be the same again. She was terrified by their conduct; put into isolation for interrogation for eight hours," he said.

Federal officials did not respond to those claims, but they did settle with Hatfill two months ago for nearly $6 million.

Anonymous said...

Let's first remember it was the pussy, that threatened to file an ethics complaint if the city didn't buy the capstone-turbine-buttplugs.

Some things in Bend never change.

Certainly Clinton knows that the pussy can be controlled like a dog on a leash, by the simple mention of a butt-plug order.

I guess its all starting to fit.

1.) some bitch leaves bra on line in Awbrey, WSJ does a page-one hit on hollern.
2.) Redmond guy fills condoms with helium and floats across state
3.) pussy arrives with capstone butt-plug perpetual energy rectal suppository, enthralls city-hall
4.) aliens seen near sunriver
5.) the shire is killed exactly two years of its original PR exposure to the world
6.) Bend builder's & developers commit suicide

Yes, I can see it now, there is a pattern.

Only #1,2,4,5 are covered by the BULL&SORE.

Anonymous said...

Talking about Bend Hobbit's, well a lot has been said over the last few years.

There's Bend's orginal hobbit, history, pre&post Nazgul-Hollern. This all that is really known in Bend about hobbit history, but it is about 1,000 pages.

http://bendbubble.blogspot.com/2007/06/hobbits-tale-of-bend-or-how-i-learned.html

Bilbo-Bends original 4,000 page report on The Shire.

http://bendbubble.blogspot.com/2007/04/shire-bends-greatest-re-boondoggle.html

Then there is the original .. cali's are goblins, ... dear to most hobbit heart in Bend
http://bendbubble.blogspot.com/2007/04/californians-are-goblins-oregonians-are.html

Anonymous said...

Well homer, I found two dozen sites, that are mentioning the 'hobbit in Bend demise', and have an explicit link to this site.

2 or 3 major WS house blogs have picked up the angle.

Eventually folks on the outside will realize Bend ain't just stupid, they're homicidal.

bruce said...

Look what showed up in the City Council agenda in the last couple of days:
http://www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/docs/Agreement_JR_Partners.pdf

Haven't even read it yet, so I will try before the meeting. It's 27 pages. Hmmm...

Sorry, this just came back and I left. Yes, our fine City Council voted tonight 6-1 (Telfer voted not) to give JRP (Kuratek, et al) a $146,000 windfall and counting. The said windfall being the Suterra sale, which had absolutely nothing to do with JRP.

First, John Russell is now selling land at $7 sq ft rather than $10 as he insisted. "market conditions"

Next, it was fucking pathetic watching Garz dance around about how much "expertise" and "knowledge", fucking etc. that JRP would show to earn their 6% on the next 50 acres.

I hope so, because that vote just gave Kuratek and partner a $141,361.60 windfall from the Suterra sale, which they had absolutly nothing to fucking do with. The first payment of about $1.2 million gauranteed to Kuratek and partners on the vote tonight.

For "their help and experitise", according to Garz.

Funny that wasn't required for Suterra. Nor will be for the next several companies that have gone directly to the City for land at JR.

I mean, what the fuck, do you just want to give away our fucking money?

bruce said...

Sorry, I'm tired and pissed and getting up in 6 hours to hammer on my bike to Widgi. So typing issues ar...fuck it. Never mind.

bruce said...

Re: Dumb Fuck Bruce Pussy.

Yes, it will be filed. Not by yet another anonymouse, but be me.

They fuckin gave away hundreds of thousands of dollars without any public comment.

Fuck it. Worse that can happen to us is we take our brains to Revelstoke.

Anonymous said...

. Yes, our fine City Council voted tonight 6-1 (Telfer voted not) to give JRP (Kuratek, et al) a $146,000 windfall and counting. The said windfall being the Suterra sale, which had absolutely nothing to do with JRP.

*

Yes, but KURATEK has enough dirt to bring this town down. Thus he must be paid off.

A mysterious accident? Insurance?

The last KURATEK money came from Les Schwab, it can only be assumed, that this money will come from the purchaser of the land.

THE PUSSY is an idiot, this we all known, but he's a good pussy at heart.

The thing to remember is that while the city got $7/sq-ft from LS they spent $20/sq-ft ( knife-river ) in excavation prepping the site at taxpayer expense.

You can be SURE as hell that SUTERRA, is buying 'shovel ready' as well, as its fucking idiotic, to assume that they would spend $7/sq-ft, and then another $13/sq-ft to level the building site.


Lastly, Bend paid $1 for 1500 acres, the last is worth nothing.

What hurts is the $13/sq-ft that we're spending, that all goes to knife river, to make the worthless solid rock known as JR, buildable.

It's all corporate-welfare for knife-river nothing more, KR will makes over $2Billion on excavation, and so far its all came from the taxpayer.

Then like LS we spend ten's of millions to prep their site, but they'll be out of business, very soon, or sold out to a major.

Just another cluster-fuck.

The good news is that by the time the Oregonian reports the city-council will have long retired.

Kuratek's $100k is the PUSSY's 'take your eye off the prize'.

The prize is the $2B that Knife-River gets, and the PRIZE is that all of the surrounding HOLLERN land becomes more valuable.

The KURATEK payout is only a distraction, orchestrated by the PUSSY's HANDLERS.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

No one's talking about the Wonderful SDC Deferral approved by our beloved City Council!

Finally, we'll be a able to put this house glut problem to rest... by... building.... more....

Uhhh.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Subscription req'd:

SDC extension plan approved
Bend City Council gives developers up to nine months to pay the fees

August 7, 2008 4:00 am

The city could find some of its bank accounts drained under a plan approved Wednesday night by the....MORE

Anonymous said...

""Some people were turned off by living in 'Disneyland,' " said [Ron Meyers, who came up with the concept]. "It's more of an artists' community ..."

Dude, artists (real ones, not amateur dilettantes) can't afford $650,000 houses.

Anonymous said...

Well FUCKING BITCH HOMER, the 'nofollows' are back in your comment source! I thought you took them out?

I have seen no spam!

So think about this! You did take it out, and now its back!

If you put it back why? If you didn't put it back, why did google FUCK WITH YOUR 'html template',

WHO is putting pressure on google to black-list this site?

Anonymous said...

CUNT HOMER refers to the original, 2005, BUT in FEB GOOGLE 'DO ONLY EVIL', then in APRIL 08, it was applied to BEND-RE-BLOGS.
*
Google Sites Jumps the rel=nofollow Shark

February 28, 2008 in google, nofollow

Google has officially jumped the rel=nofollow shark.

Google Sites is live and every page on the site uses rel=nofollow.

I just created a sample site and linked to my blog only to be presented with the following HTML:

href=”http://www.google.com/url
rel=”nofollow” http://feedblog.org

Is this the future of the web? Every URL is going to have rel=nofollow?

Google Sites isn’t alone. Google Finance uses rel=nofollow as does Google Code.

The rel=nofollow attribute is a cancer that’s destroying the link graph.

Every URL I create is going to be blocked from link based trust metrics like PageRank? That’s just dumb. I’d rather use another wiki system that doesn’t penalize my linking behavior.

I realize that your intention is to fight spam but you should pursue and algorithmic approach. Blacklisting the entire Internet is NOT the solution.

It’s clear by now that Google uses other metrics for page ranking (almost certainly including HTTP traffic monitoring by now) so this isn’t the end of the world.

Linking is the whole point of the Internet! Creating road blocks for EVERY LINK in the system is the antithesis of a free an open web!

Anonymous said...

Bend CC unanimously approves welfare for builders aka SDC deferrals.

OK, who's going to take out the recall petitions?

Anonymous said...

The developer/realtor/builder lobby OWNS this fucking town and all the politicians in it, which is why it turned from a nice small town into a sprawling ugly traffic-choked shithole, and why we have NEVER had an intelligent growth policy and never will. Fuck this place -- as soon as the real estate market turns up even a little bit I am selling and getting the fuck out.

Anonymous said...

WHO is putting pressure on google to black-list this site?

I doubt there is ANYBODY in this town with enough clout to pressure Google to do anything.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

If you put it back why? If you didn't put it back, why did google FUCK WITH YOUR 'html template',

WTF? It ain't me. I'll look.

Anonymous said...

BP,

I'll say one thing BP, your not a complete fucking idiot like HOMER & DUNC.

When I reported to you about the 'page ranking selection' issue and google searching you removed the 'nofollow' the same day.

Not fucking homer, he's too stupid, and not dunc, he thinks its a badge of honor.

When you have 'nofollow' in your HTML what it does is tell the search engine that there are fwd/back links to your site, all google search alogrithms are based on how many people cross-ref your site.

The 'nofollow' is/was a black-list mechanism ( google "black-listing comment google" ).

BP, you took it out, and HOMER says he took it out and its back in, I took it out, soon as they realized they put this glue into our BEND-RE blogs, and note they haven't done it elsewhere by default.

Homer says he took it out, and now its back in, which tells me homer got scared that this site might move up on the page-rankings, and someone outside of this fucking tiny community might actually see this site.

LIKE HOMER SAYS, he's a cowardly shit eating cunt, that makes fun of things because its in his comfort zone.

OFTEN & OFTEN I keep thinking that HOMER & DUNC are the same person.

BP, again, your problem the only fucking technical person here, that uses his fucking brain, even if you are liberal pussy.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Well, it wasn't me, but they were back. 2 of 'em. Took 'em off.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

LIKE HOMER SAYS, he's a cowardly shit eating cunt...

Oy. No good deed...

Anonymous said...

If you put it back why? If you didn't put it back, why did google FUCK WITH YOUR 'html template',

WTF? It ain't me. I'll look.

*

It's back in there homer.

Just click on this weeks blog, so the comments come out on the bottom, and then HIT, "VIEW HTML SOURCE".

Then search for 'nofollow'.

If you didn't put it back in, then SOMEONE at google was asked by powers that be, NOTE NOW that ALL the fucking comments have been black-listed, its real tough to go back and edit that shit out.

YOU GOT TO fix your fucking template HOMER, and if GOOGLE is fixing it for you, then you need to make this a fucking MEDIA issue, because someone BIG is leaning on GOOGLE to censor this site, I'm assuming, e.g. if YOU didn't for fact re-enable the 'nocomment'.

You are an idiot, you could have hit the 'reset HTML template to default' button, which would have put you back in the new mode that google was asked to put you in, but your not that fucking stupid are you homer?

I fucking told you to check your fucking source, every fucking day, I told you they would slip this shit back in, and then of course most likely you were fucking around and thought that 'default' meant clean, when in fact since BB2 is on the black-list NOW, 'default' means full censor black-list mode.

YOUR GOING to have to stay on top this shit HOMER, cuz right now your wasting your fucking time, because NOBODY is going to see your content or find it on the search engines.

Googles search engine, and almost all search engines are based on link-density, the 'nofollow' drop's you off the list completely, and put you on the bottom of rank-scale, which in effect means your black-listed, invisible, and censored. This technology was NEVER developed for SPAM, it was developed for selective-censorship. FACT.

Anonymous said...

Ok, so you saying that there were 'two' no-follows in your HTML template, that means you got shifted back to censor-default mode, did you do it?

Come on you would know you hit the little 'reset html template' button, after you fixed this shit past weekend. If you didn't re-enable censoring who did?

It hasn't been re-enabled on my site or the pussy's.

I can only assume you re-enabled it, or someone at google,

Anonymous said...

LIKE HOMER SAYS, he's a cowardly shit eating cunt...

Oy. No good deed...

*

Typical fucking HOMER, just mumble rather than fix the fucking problem.

Anonymous said...

When I say look at your HTML, open you site, and cick on this weeks title, and then open the fucking 'pull down' that says 'view source', then search for 'nofollow' there are 100's of them.

*

When I say 'html-template' I'm talking inside you widge-template default, which should have all the no-follows removed, I know you removed the other day, but now they're back!

WHY HOMER?

Do you & ned really share the same fucking dick?

tim said...

>>Do you & ned really share the same fucking dick?

Well, we are in bend.

1) Awbrey Sheet Lady
2) Hobbit Developer Dude
3) Pregnant Man
4) Balloon Chair Guy
5) Two bloggers who share penis

Anonymous said...

Tim, you forgot the 140-Pound Tumor Woman. Although actually she's from Redmond so maybe she doesn't count.

And then there's the Prineville Deer Fucker. It all depends how far out you want to push the boundary.

tim said...

We're all Sideshow and no Three Rings.

Anonymous said...

Timmy said...
5) Two bloggers who share penis
**

Or as Dunc would say,

5) Two bloggers who share penus.

Duncan McGeary said...

And check out the Cryptkeeper mugshot from Redmond on the KTVZ.com.

Anonymous said...

homer is an idiot

test

Anonymous said...

The idiot has re-disabled the 'rel=nofollow'.

Please folks keep an eye time to time on your source, and make sure this shit doesn't creep back in, our game here is not to be invisible.

Anonymous said...

Well, we are in bend.

1) Awbrey Sheet Lady
2) Hobbit Developer Dude
3) Pregnant Man
4) Balloon Chair Guy
5) Two bloggers who share penis

*

You missed the ET/UFO sighting!

Then there is the 'grand delusions and madness of the city' where some 99% believe in perpetual-motion-machines, perpetual-money-trees, and perpetual-housing-development schemes.

bruce said...

Man the fucking City Council spent a whole lot of money last night, between the JRP payout and the SDC deferral. I asked Sonia what they were going to do if a builder couldn't pay his SDC's, other than charge interest. Is there an actual collection procedure? Other than withholding the occupancy permit? Which if it doesn't sell doesn't matter, as it won't be occupied.

No.

And she's worried about that, too. They have the ability to stop issuing deferrals if it becomes a problem but by then it will probably be too late. I got the feeling she is getting heavily leaned on to approve of the idea.

The Council seems like everything will be OK if not too many people take it (yeah, right-everyone will take the deferral, why the hell wouldn't they?) and that someday the building will sell and we can collect the SDC's.

Mark my words, in 12 months we are going to have empty buildings and an empty SDC fund for building infrastructure.

Here is that BULL article from behind the paywall:

SDC extension plan approved
Bend City Council gives developers up to nine months to pay the fees


The city could find some of its bank accounts drained under a plan approved Wednesday night by the Bend City Council that gives builders and developers more flexibility on when they must pay fees for their projects.

The council voted unanimously to give builders up to nine months to pay the system development charges on their projects, rather than paying when getting building permits. The plan means applicants could build most of their projects and avoid having to finance the SDCs, which are about $14,000 for a single-family home.

But with the housing and commercial construction markets sagging and a possible nine-month gap if new projects all take advantage of the deferral, the city might not have enough money for its annual debt payments, Finance Director Sonia Andrews said. The city needs to bring in about $7 million each year from SDCs to pay down the bonds for growth-related projects, she said.

“If we have virtually no building activity, and we only collect $3 million in SDCs, and all those SDCs are deferred, we have no cash flow for debt service and the engineering division,” Andrews said.

The engineering division, which reviews the construction plans for projects for issues like slopes and utilities, uses SDCs to pay its day-to-day costs, Andrews said.

“There are serious concerns about this,” Councilor Peter Gramlich said. “I guess we’re trusting you to be able to tell us when we’re getting close to the bottom of the till, and then we pull the plug on this.”

Andy High, the government affairs director of the Central Oregon Builders Association, which helped craft the deferral program, said it will make a difference.

“I’ve heard from a few commercial builders that were kind of waiting,” High said. And with an eight-month supply of homes for less than $300,000, the deferrals would give a production builder the chance to build more homes in that price range, he said.

The large amount of available office space in the city and the number of high-end homes on the market would put a damper on developers using deferrals for similar projects, High predicted.

City officials said they’d keep a close eye on how many builders are signing up for the deferral and how much of a hit the city is taking.

“If we see the floodgates open and people taking advantage of this … we would just say, ‘From here on out, we’re not going to accept new deferrals,’” City Manager Eric King said.

High said he hoped the program would become permanent and not expire after one year, as it is set to do.

“If things are successful and things are working, we’re going to push to extend it,” he said.


In other business, the City Council gave a nod of approval to creating a new urban renewal area on the south side of Bend to help fund new roads and a new parkway interchange at Murphy Road.

Starting next year, officials expect the area to bring in more than $500,000 in yearly revenue as new projects are built and the property taxes from the new construction are directed to the urban renewal area.

The area would be able to take out up to $52.6 million in bonds to fund a new overpass and extension of Murphy Road, as well as other projects in the area. The yearly proceeds from property taxes would be used to pay off the debt over the next 25 years.

We've only got a fucking 8 month supply of almost affordable homes under $300K, so he expects them to build more. What do we need, a 12 month supply? How do they expect to build and sell them in nine months if we already have an eight month supply trying to get sold?

What was the latest figure on homes on acreage sales and inventory, Marge? Don't we have like a 4 year supply of those?

Man, the City is about fucking broke and they are trying to drown what's left in the bathtub.

Anonymous said...

Well, we are in bend.

1) Awbrey Sheet Lady ( hollern REHO )
2) Hobbit Developer Dude ( SHIRE=DEADZONE )
3) Pregnant Man ( lesbian with beard )
4) Balloon Chair Guy ( helium in condoms )
5) Two bloggers who share penis

6) forgot the 140-Pound Tumor Woman

7) Prineville Deer Fucker.

8) Sighting of ET in UFO in Sunriver.

9) The pussy sends 100,000 page 'complaint' to city-hall.

10) BULL says 'best time to buy RE in 20 years'

Anonymous said...

Anyone really want to place bets on how much building happens with the SDC deferral?

First of all you still have to buy the fucking land, and then get a loan to build.

HOLY FUCKING SHIT, have already forgotten that JAY-AUDIA just offed himself ( so we're told ) because his 'affordable'(disposable) didn't sell.

The whole premise of the pussy is a shortage of under $300k crap-shacks, yet Audia was doing it for under $150k, bet the farm, and lost the farm, and that was only in the last six months.

Ergo, who in the FUCK is going to use GOOD-MONEY to build low-income crap-shacks in Bend?

Just fucking wait, in 1-2 years, all homes in BEND will be affordable to welfare MILF REHO's.

Anonymous said...

I'll just say it again PUSSY, you have a tendency to take your eye off the prize, either by ignorance, or stupidity.

It's clear right now that ONLY two boys in BEND, have the cash to BUILD, and that is BLEDSOE&HOLLERN, or the desire.

If they have to pay 10% upfront to the city for SDC, that's 10% less cash-flow to tie them over.

My guess, is that this SDC deferral will be applied to the dozens of low-income apartments that HOLLERN has coming on line in the next 1-2 years, that is really whats going on here.

It's nothing about MORE fucking remote STD's, its about APT-COMPLEXES going in at NWXC, and other close-in locations.

NOBODY likes to put cash up front, and to be honest, even HOLLERN&BLEDSOE might be low, so get the city to carry the loan.

Socialize risk, maximize profit.

When you OWN the town, you can do as you wish, and PUSSY will lead the lemmings over towards JR.

tim said...

UFO guy
Guy who drags tire around to generate electricity.

Man, you're right. The town is so full of clowns you can't keep them straight without buying a program.

All these weird clowns. It's almost as if they're planted here as a distraction. I've lived in towns 3 times this size with 1/5 the weird characters.

bruce said...

Want to see some real kneeling down for JRP?

Check out this video:
http://kohd.com/page/32770

The levels of stupidity I'm witnessing around JR simply astounds me.

And you know that "JR Advisory Board"? According to Garzini they have already met, although I can't find any record of the Council actually voting on members. This is a letter to the SORE:

Approximately four weeks ago I submitted my application for consideration as a possible member on the Juniper Ridge Advisory Board. Last week on KTVZ Juniper Ridge was a featured news item and Oran Teater was interviewed as a “member” of the Advisory Board. Subsequently I called City Hall asking what kind of selection process was in place and when one could expect a response. I was told that communication would be sent within a few days. To date I have had no response.

It’s time for the City to allow some fresh air into the way it conducts business. This is not the time to have a closed door process when it comes to determining who will be chosen for this important task.

The criteria for the selection process needs to be made public. We need to know who applied and the rational for those selected. Representation from the immediate area should be considered. Perception is important, and this has all the elements of business as usual.

Richard Berg, Bend


From the Council memo on applicants:
Richard Berg
 Former Salem city councilor.
 Former employee of Salem water and sewer engineering department.
 Owner of financial planning / investment firm.
 Former real estate sales associate.
 Volunteer with Habitat for Humanity.

So I wonder who is actually on the Advisory Board? From Garzini's remarks I almost positive this guy is:

Darrin Kelleher
 Land developer, Lava Crest Development, LLC; real estate broker, Coldwell Banker
 Board president, Arnold Irrigation District.

Who else? Got to do a little digging.

I'll post something on the $900,000+ JRP giveaway later. Buster, I don't care if it's just a dodge to keep our eyes on them--it's a lot of fucking money to give away for doing jack shit!

bruce said...

Re: The whole premise of the pussy is a shortage of under $300k crap-shacks

That was *sarcasm*

So how the fuck did Kuratek and Holzman get tied in so tight to the city teat so quickly?

Anonymous said...

So how the fuck did Kuratek and Holzman get tied in so tight to the city teat so quickly?

*

Pussy, why in the FUCK do you keep asking these rhetorical questions?

1) KURATEK was brought in the first place, because he was a UBS banking RE advisor, who had connections to money.

2.) KURATEK knows where all the body's are buried.

3.) $100k is chump change, you focus on KURATEK, while Knife-River will get BILLIONS for excavation, in that rock-outcropping called JR, all of which will be taxpayer money

4.) KURATEK could bring this town down, he's obviously collecting protection money, forever.


Why does the PUSSY have a hard-on for KURATEK? He's nobody, and $100k is chump change in this town, besides, he ain't getting any money, until the check clears for the purchase of the JR rock.

If Suterra had any brains and due diligence, they would look into actual costs of development at JR.

Anonymous said...

1) KURATEK was brought in the first place, because he was a UBS banking RE advisor, who had connections to money.

*

Do your fucking home-work pussy, KURATEK is bagman for big-mob RE banking.

He knows people all over the country.

A little shit-hole like BEND needed to have someone like KURATEK to do big deals, and get them setup.

KURATEK could deep six this town anytime he wants. ITs pure extortion, and honestly he probably feels this shit-hole of a town owes it to him.

More on UBS, they're an INTL front for a lot of shady banking. Note, they pulled out of the original JR deal even when the city was going to pay 20%/yr. So, what KURATEK knows a lot more creepy bankers.

HOMER jokes about mob-banking, but you can look at KURATEK is a 'finder'.

KURATEK collects a finders FEE, and BEND is a mob-town.

YOUR fucking GARZini, is a prison BULL, he's world famous for privatizing prisons, and locking people up, and turning them into turn-key slave labor camps, you think the fucking MOB ain't involved in this racket?

Pussy watch your back.

Anonymous said...

Well, we are in bend.

1) Awbrey Sheet Lady ( hollern REHO )
2) Hobbit Developer Dude ( SHIRE=DEADZONE )
3) Pregnant Man ( lesbian with beard )
4) Balloon Chair Guy ( helium in condoms )
5) Two bloggers who share penis

6) forgot the 140-Pound Tumor Woman

7) Prineville Deer Fucker.

8) Sighting of ET in UFO in Sunriver.

9) The pussy sends 100,000 page 'complaint' to city-hall.

10) BULL says 'best time to buy RE in 20 years'

11) guy drags tire up-hill, hooks up generator and runs tire downhill, to make 'perpetual free energy', BULL forgets the UPHILL part.

Anonymous said...

Well, we are in bend.

1) Awbrey Sheet Lady ( hollern REHO )
2) Hobbit Developer Dude ( SHIRE=DEADZONE )
3) Pregnant Man ( lesbian with beard )
4) Balloon Chair Guy ( helium in condoms )
5) Two bloggers who share penis

6) forgot the 140-Pound Tumor Woman

7) Prineville Deer Fucker.

8) Sighting of ET in UFO in Sunriver.

9) The pussy sends 100,000 page 'complaint' to city-hall.

10) BULL says 'best time to buy RE in 20 years'

11) guy drags tire up-hill, hooks up generator and runs tire downhill, to make 'perpetual free energy', BULL forgets the UPHILL part.

12.) City of Bend gives tens of Million of dollars to an out of town hustler name KURATEK, because of his influential k-mart suit.

I mean all of the above would be ridiculous if not true.

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