Monday, March 3, 2008

February in Bend -- The Real Estate Calamity Continues

ALERT: Over 200 comments... now in pagination mode.

BEM is Back!


Well, first of all, BEM has Come Back & posted to his blog, http://bendoregonbubble.blogspot.com/.

Awesome! And as usual he posts regarding a topic near & dear, the INANE anchoring on, and reuse of local spending estimates as The God's Truth. This is simply an editorial standards issue... or a lack thereof, of local media. Some are so outside the realm of reality that they've lost all credibility -- notably, Cascade Business Buttbangers.

COVA's Sleep Number is "498", and you can pretty much google any local media site on this figure & up comes COVA and their To The Penny Dead On The Money BS figure about "tourist spending", $498 million. Of course, this is bullshit.

The only function this sort of thing has is buffaloing local government into funding Mega-PR/Marketing bullshit programs at taxpayers expense.

"If we don't get funded, say BYE-BYE to every nickel of the $498,000,000 tourist trade!"

Uh huh. Right.

Anyway, BEM's first post in over a year is a good read, and you should go have a read... NOW!

Brucey...

Brucey did some more good stuff recently. Over on BendBB, he posted some good pics of the whithering of the local market. I think I did my own last August, Picto-Plummet - A Graphical Novel.

Actually, my first picture of Eagle's Landing is now, a totally different picture! Well, sorta different. I'm happy to announce that since I documented the 100% vacancy rate on spec lots over at Eagles Landing, that 1 LOT HAS SOLD & A HOUSE WAS BUILT! Yeah!

That does leave about 80 lots or so to go, but at this rate, my children may still be alive when Eagle's Landing finally sells out. Good Job over there guys. Bringing it in below the 100 year saturation cutoff.

And if there's one thing I'm pretty sure of, it's that if you can't sell out a STD development in under 100 years, you got problems. Yarrow & IronHorse? See, they got problems cuz they are pushing the 100 year cutoff.

You can force your kids to sell real estate, and maybe the grandkids. But the great grandkids? That's getting pretty dicey. For historical perspective, if you look BACK 100 years, you notice that the aero-pod & velocipede had recently been invented in 1908. Selling Yarrow & IronHorse in 2108 just seems like it's a bit long in tooth on the business plan side of things.

That's just me, though.

Oh right... Brucey... Bruce also pointed out that Blogger has gone to paginating comments, when they reach 200. Just be aware that you can click "newer" and "newest" links near the top & bottom of the comments area.

On to the markets...

I usually don't talk about the stock market, cuz I suck so bad at predicting it. But I always thought that somehow the meltdown in housing/credit would ultimately negatively impact stocks.
DJIA, 6 months

Notice that we've been down 4 months in a row now, but the mind-numbing losses I would have expected have not really materialized. Why?

My own (craptacular) theory? Well, imagine you got Big Money, and I mean BIG. Many, many millions, or billions. What do you do?

Seems like subprime, SIV, and CMO shenanigans have poisoned every debt issue in sight. Unless you are buying government paper, you STILL don't really know what you're getting. Whether it's dollar denominated or not, non-govt debt has gone toxic.

This leaves stocks, and weird shit like commodities. And Oil at $100/bbl, and gold near $1,000/oz don't hurt, either.

So for TRILLIONS in US retirement money, that leaves Big Stocks, US & Foreign. With the dollar going into the shitter, that really makes foreign stocks appealing.

Well, no. These issues will suffer, cuz the tsunami will wash over everything & strip it to bare metal. But it by default leaves stocks, and they have really barely moved in 8 years, and the NASDAQ is still way down from March 2000.

DJIA, 10 years

Since March 2000, we've gone from just below 12,000 on the DJIA, to 12,266 today. That's what I call a horrendous Opportunity Cost Bear Market.

Is the market up since then? Yes, but it is Far Below where you'd be had you bought zero-risk treasuries.

The P/E on the DJIA is currently 14.9, or an earnings yield of 6.7%. Greenspan frequently postulated that the 10 year treasury yield should be approximately equal to the DJIA earnings yield. The 10 year yields 4.55% now, and an equivalent earnings yield on the DJIA would put us at 18,130 on the Dow.

That summarizes my feelings about stocks. We ARE in a bear market. I think we're about to take a Hard earnings hit, but still stocks are the last bastion for Huge Money. That & treasuries. What is toxic in individual industries? Hmmmm....

Cascade Bancorp, 5 year chart

Right, right, right, right, right... Good old CACB came within striking distance of single digits, getting CRUSHED down to $10.11/sh this week.

Interestingly, no sooner do mega-bears like myself & BEM make horrendous downside predictions on this dog, and it swiftly exceeds them to the downside. CACB is probably the sort of small, RE-overexposed bank Bernanke was talking about this week:

"There will probably be some bank failures," Bernanke told Congress Thursday. "There are some small and in many cases de novo [new] banks that have heavily invested in real estate in locales where prices have fallen. Among the largest banks, the capital ratios remain good and I don't expect any serious problems among the larger banks."

Bernanke should really stop speaking. He's like the Bizarro World Opposite of Teflon Al Greespan. Everytime Al opened his pie-hole we got 100pts to the upside. Helicopter Ben sneezes, and we get killed. Poor Bastard. Besides he's Dead Wrong about "larger banks" having no serious problems. Here's some more Bernanke-izing:

From
February 29, 2008

Ben Bernanke triggers dollar’s fall to new low

The dollar plummeted to record lows and shares tumbled in New York and across Europe yesterday after Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, spooked markets with a prediction of US bank failures and fresh warnings over a grim outlook for America’s economy.

In its third day of heavy losses, the embattled dollar slumped across the board on foreign exchanges after Mr Bernanke gave what economists said was a “green light” to markets to step up their assault on the US currency.

The dollar fell to a new record low against the euro, which soared to levels above $1.52 for the first time, while the dollar’s overall value on its trade-weighted index also hit a record low for a third consecutive day.

The greenback’s heavy losses combined with the latest dose of bleak US figures, with confirmation that the US economy came close to stagnating in the fourth quarter, to spark another fear-fuelled sell-off on Wall Street.

Now, we're definitely fucked. But almost none of it is this poor bastards fault.

For a look at the other publicly traded Bend-area issues, the news is not good.

Clear Choice Health Plans, 3 years

Clear Choice has suffered losses on par with CACB. I don't have insight into the problems here, but they are taking this one out to the barn for a shooting. This is largely owned by local doctors though... and these are the same people COBA is targeting to buy up their remaining 3-4,000 homes to finally absorb 650% of local disposable income.

Some good news? Yes.

Prineville Bancorp, 3yr chart

Maybe Prineville is semi-immune to the local market rout, maybe it's behind the curve even farther than Bend, maybe it's just so illiquid that no one ever trades it, or maybe this issue was just ridiculously undervalued in the single digits.

Whatever the reason, PNVL has held up relatively well. It last traded at $10.50/sh, and a P/E of about 14. Is it bound for a beating? I don't know, but PNVL has held up far better than any other local publicly traded issue.

I would have included Micro-Semi here, but it's my understanding they were bought a few years back, and the mothership is not really a Bend-based business.

Finally, local RE... The Rout Continues

mstucker (marge?) posted this in the comments:

Marge said...

I posted this at Bendbb.

Feb sold stats as of 3/1/08.

Bend Residential homes on less than an acre:
45 Sold @ median of $322,500
Bend all types of residential
58 Sold @ median of $327,500
Current active listings are 1876.
Hopefully a few more sales will be reported next week as brokers catch up with reporting to MLS.
There seems to be more homes going pending the past 60 days though.

In 2007 the numbers were:
Bend all types res
169 Sold @ $335k
in 2006 it was 190 Sold @$336k
I looked all the way back to 1997 and can't find a Feb. with such low sales. In 97 it was 101 sold @ a median of 118k. Might have to go back to 1987 to get that low. MLS only goes back to 97.

Whoa. Read & re-read folks. This is just death. Here is my response to Tim's question about figures post back on March 20:

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

So Paul, how many years of inventory will we have at the end of February?

Well, last Feb David Foster recorded 132 sales, and 1,168 homes for sale at the end of that month. That's about 8.9 months of inventory.

Jan 08 was 13% higher inventory than Jan 07, and Feb 07 was 1,173, so if Feb is 13% higher than last Feb, that yields 1,326 homes.

If we sell 50 homes, that's 26.5 months. 40 homes is 33.15 months. 30 homes (Armaggedon), yields 44.2 months.

We're going to have to really bust it out to hit 50 homes by the end of the month. 30 homes seems to horrible to consider. I'm guessing 30 months for Feb 08, or 2 1/2 years.

That's GAME OVER for soooooo many people around here. That's Hasson, Remax & Morris shutting down shop in The Old Mill & leasing 1,000sf next to a consignment shop, or something. These people cannot make their lease/mtg payments at that level of sales, much less anything else.

I think a lot of brokerage will go "boutique" in the next few years. Big franchises will exit. Lots of little 4-5 man shops. And of course the rise of cut-rate, limited service shops. Bye-bye 6%.

Well, now we know. a CORE site search on "Bend Residential" today, yields 1,336 homes. 45 solds rounds up to 30 months inventory. That excludes condo's, acreage properties, manufactured's, etc.

OK, what I've kept track of with Doug Fosters data is all Bend residential. The news here is worse. There are 1,883 units of all residential types for sale in Bend, and marge's pre-lim figure of 58 solds (bound to be revised up, mind you) yields 32.5 months inventory.

Months Inventory, Bend Oregon, all residential types, May 2006 to Feb 2008.

There it is. I've said it before, and I'll say it again... and again... and again.

"Months of Inventory is The Most Important Indicator Of Central Oregon's Economic Health."

And maybe you've spotted a subtle trend in this number... yeah, it's headed up. Just a bit. I think several area Realtors suggested 6 months is a "normal" figure.

Anyone remember when such RE sages as Pam Lester said things were "so low, they could not go lower"? Just point to the area on the graph... as I recall it was Aug 22 of last year:

Prices still sliding, sales still slowing


If prices drop further, losses may be in store for industry
By David Fisher / The Bulletin
Published: August 22. 2007 4:00AM PST

In the meantime, though, things have gotten to the point in the local markets, especially for home builders on recently purchased land, where prices can’t sink much further without inviting losses, Redmond-based Century 21 Gold Country agent Pam Lester said.

“I don’t expect prices to go anywhere but up from here,” Lester said, “because they can’t go any lower.”

Can't argue with that. That there is airtight logic.

I like Fishers subtitle on this one:

If prices drop further, losses may be in store for industry

Read further in the piece, and you see the stats for last July:

In Bend, 109 single-family homes on less than an acre of land sold in July, down 27.8 percent from June’s sales, according to the Central Oregon Multiple Listing Service. The median price — the price at which half sold for more and half for less — stood at $340,000, 4.5 percent less than the median price of homes sold in July 2006.

Monthly sales figures in Redmond, Crook County and Jefferson County also fell to their lowest levels in five years, according to the MLS, while median sale prices dipped below prices in the same month a year ago.

In Redmond, 40 non-acreage homes sold in July, down 45.2 percent from July 2006. Median prices also slipped to $247,000, down 5.7 percent from the same month last year.

In Crook County, 11 homes sold — half of the July 2006 number — while median sales prices slid to $190,000, off 13.5 percent from homes sold in July 2006.

In Jefferson County, eight homes sold — a third of the July 2006 volume — while median sales prices dipped 4.9 percent from July 2006 to $173,250.

So.... according to marge, medians HAVE dropped. But what's truly imploded is volume.

Where's the Bulletin story on THE LOSSES? Hmmm... maybe it's on it's way, right BEM?

BendBB statistical goodness...

And finally BendBB has come out with his monthly statistical goodness. God bless that crazy fucker.

Anyway, there are some trends of note:

First, Desert Skeeze continues to prove The Old Adage, "Don't buy shit in Desert Skeeze." OK, maybe a more generic adage is "People don't like buying jumbo STD's built to 3rd World Standards within whispering distance of their neighbors".

At $315K, and 3,390/sf, this $93/sf STD jumbo-crapper is STILL the Cheapest Shithole in town. This badboy started out at $399,900, and has suffered 4 markdowns totalling 21.23%, not counting prior listings, which there may have been.

Hell, it's only been a few weeks since this turd busted the $100/sf barrier. I talked about a run to the 60's. This thing has already dropped another 7%, and still no takers.

A confirmed 6 figure short sale is this Pollock-fueled nightmare in Forum Meadows:

Forum Meadows Coyote Ugliness

The owner of this barf bucket periodically begs to be put out of his misery on craigslist. He claims to have bought this snotpile in the mid 400's, and it's now clear down to $249K, and still no takers. It's 2,517sf, so it's busted below $100/sf as well... but the bottom continues to rush away.

We're headed for $60/sf.

What really jumped out this month was the BRUTAL 1-SHOT price drops on bare land. And not shit, out East STD-2-Be crap. The Good Stuff.

The Reserve at Broken Top had several lots take a near 40% beating. This one got spanked for 42.3% in 1 reduction. That is serious shit. Luckily the listing Realtor has got some hotness.

"Hi, I'm Ashley Erickson. My hobbies include being hot, skiing, and spanking bare land listings for 40%"

Here's a rundown on some YoY PPSF price trends on big subdiv's:

DRW: Feb 2007, AVG(PPSF): $215.40. Now $181.43
Northwest Xing: $283.46 a year ago, now $251.46
RiverRim: $224.10, now $221.54.
Broken Top: $325.53 last year, now $316.05.
Awbrey Butte: $319.52, now $280.96
Parks at Broken Top: $259.48, now $224.10

And just for you, Timmy:

Skyliner Summit was $208.00/sf, and is now $202.90.

So PPSF figures that used to be mixed, and not really definitive, are now pretty universally down YoY. But still not Down Hard.

What is really Down Hard is your ability to actually sell at your ask. No one is selling anything. Look at that Months Of Inventory graph. That's The End. Bye bye Morris and Hasson. Bye bye Amerititle. Bye bye 80+% of all mortgage brokers... or more. Bye bye Old Mill RE leaches.

30 months of Inventory is the End of our local economy. Notice the layoffs occurring? Again, NOT A COINCIDENCE. And this is certainly Not the End of them. And like The Unlisted Dark Matter, these layoffs are like an iceberg: You're only hearing about 10% of them. The Big Boys who can't hide it, cuz the laid off will make sure the press hears about it.

Knife River, Brightwood, the entire town of Gilchrist, Deschutes County, Seaswirl, Oregon Woodworking and a litany of others are in the first stages of culling their ranks or flat out shutting down. Most income hits are being taken by "RE free lancers", off the books. That shadow sector has been gutted already. These are the fuckers that kept Merenda & the local Hummer dealer alive.

The Good News? Well, Deschutes County traditionally "bottoms" in February. Things usually get better from here, for about the next 6-8 months. Sales will pick up, things will be declared "OK", and such.

But if you really need to sell, realize that this yearly game of musical chairs ends as predictably as it starts, and if you Need Out, this is Your Time.

Mark It DOWN. Not a little, A LOT. 40-50%. You MIGHT be able to sell. But this is IT. Don't buy into the "The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow" Bull Shit. This is a temporary respite, and I do mean TEMPORARY. We're in the LONG WAVE DOWN. Decades Down. We just happen to be starting a meager, half-hearted, but predictable yearly wave up. It'll end soon, and that's IF it really gets going, which it may not.

If you've been "waiting", now is your time. But it's still going to hurt like hell. But I guarantee you'll be happy you take the hit today, rather than enduring death by a thousand cuts. If you suffer a brain hemorrhage cuz you are getting lowballed, you'd better buck up & take it. It will NEVER get better than RIGHT NOW.

Sellers have taken a total of 3,781 price cuts in BendBB's data, banging the cumulative value of that RE from $967.8 million, down to $852.7 million. And the price cutting still has So Far to go, you won't believe it when it's over. This place is FLOODED with square footage, both residential & commercial. We are in the beginning stages of an economic tsunami here.

But in the next 3-4 months, you can actually take advantage of a small seasonal respite & actually sell, but you will have to accept that you will be ravaged monetarily. That's it. My Lord, "dunc" just posted on BendBB that foreclosures here outnumber sales:

Feb., 08 Notice of Defaults: 109
Feb., 08 Houses Sold: 58

Look at the Months Inventory graph. Look at THAT foreclosure data. That AIN'T RIGHT. That is SERIOUSLY WRONG. Foreclosures outnumber Sales? In Bend? NEVER!

Well, it's happening. It's Armageddon. But you have a tiny window, right now. Bail Out, Mark it down... or You Will NEVER SELL. EVER. They will carry you out.

348 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 348   Newer›   Newest»
bruce said...

BULL: "Budget cuts may slow fire response"

Someone with a subbie could cut and paste the rest. One more brick in the anchor.

bruce said...

I love the sales pitch on that STD jumbo crapper: Priced BELOW replacement cost @$93/SF! Subject to short sale: seller is bleeding & sharks are circling. Don't miss out on feeding frenzy!!

Going to be seeing a lot of these soon.

bruce said...

CC back to its tried and true way of doing business:

Executive Session pursuant to ORS 192.660 (2) (a through o)

http://www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/march_5_2008_regular_meeting.html

bruce said...

More spending on consultants: Staff Review and Recommendation to Council: Staff recommends that the City Council receive a presentation on a Two-Year Work Plan for implementation of the
Central Area Plan and consider a proposal to spend up to $500,000 on consultant fees for the implementation studies.


Do you think staff realizes that we actually should be cutting back? Do you think they have a fucking clue? Or is each little fifedom trying to squeeze as much out as possible for itself?

Anonymous said...

Feb., 08 Notice of Defaults: 109
Feb., 08 Houses Sold: 58

Look at the Months Inventory graph. Look at THAT foreclosure data. That AIN'T RIGHT. That is SERIOUSLY WRONG. Foreclosures outnumber Sales? In Bend? NEVER!

*

Damn near 2 to 1 will go NOT through MLS/NAR but through the COURTS, which means the only way to track BEND-RE is the public records.

Watch VOLUME (MLS) is good if you want to see MLS dead, but it will not tell you much about how Bend is being liquidated.

Now that homes have to be sold at a loss, people even more so don't want to share 6% with a REALTOR. MLS is finished.

Soon almost all Bend Volume will be going through the county court house, and only recorded on DIAL.

CACB is liquid and falling like a rock, because the investors can get out today, BEND-RE of which CACB holds is an ILLIQUID investment, and thus is in paralysis. CACB IS ONE OF THE ONLY bellwethers we have because of its liquidity.

Getting money is VERY hard now, almost impossible, remember that most people in Bend don't have good jobs, don't have 20% down,


Yes, the DOLLAR is falling like a rock, which means 18% interest rates on the horizon, they'll not let this country currency fall in the toilet, the reason that the dollar is down, is that nobody wants to hold dollars, if your going to be a sub-prime country, and run your plantation on credit, then you have to pay top interest rates, hell 1970's very soon. I would say very close the election cycle, once its a slam dunk say around November or before. Even now the 30yr fixed has been sky-rocketing, even though discount-rate is going down.

RE-MTG is a Bond play, nobody wants bonds, and everyone knows that 50% of Bend will walk, cuz they're under water.

HOMER today mentions the HOSPITAL what failed to mention is nurses who kill & torture, and patients who jump out of windows, St. Charles is going to shit, they have ALWAYS had the highest rate of non-essential surgery in the country, to many amenity parasite doctors in this town.

Anonymous said...

Bruce,

This city loves to keep PR&Marketing employed, and consultants,

Even more fun is to BUY plans, and then mothball them.

Plans sell, and 'consultants' remember there is NO money in this town, watch who gets the money, study the budget and see where all the consultant money is going today.

A few years ago it was almost all going to DVA ( COBA ), these outfits rename themselves here every few years.

Follow the money.

There really isn' much else to Bend than 'consulting' get elected hold office, hire a relative for friend as a consultant, then when you exit they'll hire you, its endless, but what else is there to do here? Nothing.

Besides, its what our government does endless study's, plans, consultants, ... What happened to the BEND 2030 plan? I haven't heard about that for a while, and they spent a fortune on that. Perhaps its as simple as keeping everyone focussed on the future? Deny the present, ignore it, ... Plan for Bend is Aspen, keep moving ahead.

Consultants paid 1/2 Million a year will provide pretty glossys, and tell you what ever you want to hear, the way YOU SELL the Bend of today, is by selling it as the Bend of tomorrow, thus I'm sure there will be MORE PR&CONSULTING than ever, because this town is still ran by CONDO-REHO's, and thus THEY'LL continue to use taxpayer dollar to bail themselves out.

Given that no matter who runs or holds office here it will never matter, because everyone in Bend is a RE player.

So the BIG LIE continues, ... Until they go broke.

Anonymous said...

Been following your blog for awhile and love it.I reside in Clatsop Co. (Warrenton)on the coast and even tho our residential market has softened, I can see the trend starting here. Home Depot ,Toyota dealership, bigger Costco, Outback,Big 5, IHOP,are just a few that are being built and coming to this town. I have been here for 32 yrs. and I can see the writing on the wall, and have already started liquidating some land and rentals I bought years ago.Next to go is my house and I will live in one of my small apartments. Ha! Maybe when it gets down to $60/sq.ft in Bend I will leave this coast rain and buy myself one of those golf course homes near you folks. Oh, by the way, the out of town,CALI, folks did it to this market too!

Marge said...

NOD"S for Feb. at 109 for the entire County.
Sold residential units of all types for Feb. are 117 for the entire County. (MLS) # of active listing for same are 3381.
And someone out there is right that there will be more and more sales that don't go thru MLS. So I suggest the he stare into his computer screen 5 hours a day to keep watch on it. The MLS stats are just an indication of the market.

Anonymous said...

I am considering moving my family from Boise to Bend and have found your blog to be the best resource for what is going on - Thank you! We'll need to sell our house here and will probably look to move in the next 90-120 days. We have kids and will be looking at newer subdivisions and good schools. We want to make a long-term commitment to the area and hopefully the move to Bend will be our last. My question is should we consider renting while this all implodes, buy a 40% reduced plot and find a reasonable builder or do you (and your readers) have some other recommendation?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

My question is should we consider renting while this all implodes, buy a 40% reduced plot and find a reasonable builder or do you (and your readers) have some other recommendation?

Well, until recently I would have said Definitely Rent (and Invest The Diff), and I still do.

But... Now you CAN throw down a crotch-busting lowball & have some glimmer of hope that it'll be looked at. People are beginning to shake off the Kool-Aid hangover here, and listen to reason.

STD's are going to $60/sf, nice stuff with a decent yard is going to $80-90/sf, and the upper middle class (nice BT... not the best), is going to $125/sf. Super Premium (Pronghorn) is coming down from $600 to $200-300/sf. That sort of thing is going to slow as well, but people who buy Pronghorn/Crosswater are not going to be affected as much by a mill here or there...

Hell, might as well LOOK... and throw you down a sterilizer lowball. Just remember that you will be virtually unable to sell for more than the figures above for a decade. And if you pay within 40% of 98% of all ask prices, you will get killed on resale.

Rent & Invest The Diff is still a no-brainer.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And note that CACB is now down near 70%... coming close to the Magic Number.

Time for a nice bounce?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Despite Costs, More People Raid 401(k)s for Cash
By ELEANOR LAISE and CRAIG KARMIN

Financially stretched workers are increasingly breaking into their retirement accounts to get cash.

Over the past couple of decades, the 401(k) account and its brethren have become the main retirement savings vehicles for millions of Americans. But as the credit crunch and declining home values limit many types of consumer loans, a growing number of workers are tapping into these accounts as if they were piggy banks.

Eighteen percent of workers had a loan outstanding from their retirement plan in 2007, up from 11% in 2006, according to a survey to be released today by the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, a nonprofit corporation funded by Aegon NV's Transamerica Life Insurance Co.

Major retirement-plan providers are reporting a similar trend. The number of participants taking a loan from their 401(k) plans rose by 7% at the end of last year from six months earlier, according to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co.'s analysis of 350 plans nationwide that cover 1.3 million people. Those results followed a period from January 2005 through June 2007 when loans from these 401(k) plans fell by 15%.

Similarly, in 2007, 401(k) plans administered by Fidelity Investments and T. Rowe Price Group Inc. posted increases in loans and so-called hardship withdrawals for people who demonstrate an immediate financial need, such as medical expenses, over the prior year.

In all, there was roughly $49 billion of 401(k) loans outstanding at the end of 2006, according to an estimate by the Employee Benefit Research Institute, a nonprofit research group in Washington.

For workers, a retirement-plan loan may seem like a quick and easy solution to a cash crunch. Borrowers don't need a good credit rating, interest rates are generally relatively low, and interest is paid to the borrower's account, not to the bank.

But the rise in retirement-plan loans is "an alarming trend," says Catherine Collinson, president of the Transamerica Center. "The real secret of building a retirement nest egg is saving over the long term on a consistent basis," she says. Hitting up your retirement account for cash throws a wrench in this process.

There are other reasons why borrowing from your 401(k) can wreak havoc on your finances. A worker who leaves his job before the loan is paid off will have to pay the remaining balance in full, or else face taxes and potential penalties. What's more, given the stock market's recent declines, participants now borrowing from plans may be selling assets at depressed values to fund the withdrawals.

Why the surge in 401(k) loans? Until recently, soaring home prices made it easy for consumers to tap their home equity for funds. But now that home prices are dropping rapidly in many markets, more workers, loaded with debt and struggling to make mortgage payments, are turning to their retirement plans. In the Transamerica study, which surveyed more than 2,000 full-time employees at for-profit companies, 49% of those who borrowed from their retirement savings said they took the loan to pay off debt, up from 27% in 2006.

In some instances, workers in fear of home foreclosure may be tapping retirement funds as a last-ditch measure, says Anne Lester, a senior portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. "We found a strong correlation between parts of the country where foreclosure rates were high and there was a rise in 401(k) loans or hardship withdrawals," she says. In the South Atlantic, Midwest and Southwest regions -- areas that have seen the highest increase in foreclosure rates -- more than half of company 401(k) plans experienced an increase in loans and withdrawals since 2006.

Defined-contribution plans such as 401(k)s held roughly $4.4 trillion at the end of June. Most 401(k) plans allow participants to take out loans, and generally workers can borrow the lesser of $50,000 or 50% of their account balance. Among participants with loans, the average unpaid balance at the end of 2006 was nearly $7,300, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute. Loans aren't taxed, but participants repay the loan, plus interest, with aftertax dollars. While interest rates vary from plan to plan, a typical rate is the prime rate -- currently 6% -- plus 1%. General-purpose loans must be repaid within five years.

Some workers raid their 401(k)s without fully understanding the consequences. Joanna Bare, 40 years old, of Bethesda, Md., took a $35,000 loan from her 401(k) in 2005 to cover a huge tax bill resulting from the sale of stock she had held since she was a child. But she didn't realize that she would need to repay the loan with aftertax dollars even though the 401(k) account was funded with pretax savings, meaning the loan repayments would take a bigger bite out of her paycheck than she anticipated.

While repaying the loan, Ms. Bare had to drop her monthly 401(k) contribution to $200, from about $900 previously. "I used every scrap of income I could find to pay it off," she says.

Things get really ugly when 401(k) borrowers lose or change their jobs. In that case, the borrower must repay the entire outstanding loan balance right away. If the borrower can't pay off the loan, he'll owe income tax on the unpaid balance and, typically, a 10% penalty if he's under age 59½. Such a scenario may be a particular concern at a time when the economy is slowing and layoffs may become more common, says Rick Brooks, a financial planner in Solana Beach, Calif.

Workers taking loans also miss out on market returns on the money they've borrowed. A borrower may wind up paying himself less interest than his money would have earned if it had remained invested in his 401(k) plan.

Consider this example from T. Rowe Price: A participant with a $20,000 account balance who contributes $100 a month and earns an annual return of 10% would have $624,681 after 30 years. But if that participant borrows $10,000 from his plan and repays the loan at 7% interest over five years, halting contributions while he repays the loan but making $100 monthly contributions for the next 25 years, he would have only $523,502 at the end of the 30-year period.

If participants decide they must take out a 401(k) loan, they should aim to pay it off as quickly as possible and continue making new plan contributions while paying off the loan, taking full advantage of any employer-matching contributions. "As long as you keep contributing, the long-term negative impact isn't nearly as significant," says Pamela Hess, director of retirement research at consulting firm Hewitt Associates.

The 401(k) loans are increasing despite some employers' efforts to discourage them. More plans are adding fees on loans or limiting the number of loans that participants can take, aiming to deter excessive borrowing, Ms. Hess says. Nearly 80% of plans charged loan-origination fees in 2007, up from 63% in 2001, and the average fee was $55, according to Hewitt.

Some plans also charge annual loan-servicing fees, and many plan providers educate participants about the potential pitfalls of taking loans. "We don't endorse taking out a loan from a retirement savings plan," says Fidelity spokeswoman Jennifer Engle. "It's a funding source of last resort."

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

a proposal to spend up to $500,000 on consultant fees for the implementation studies.

Wow. This is simply unbelievable.

LavaBear said...

And note that CACB is now down near 70%... coming close to the Magic Number.

Time for a nice bounce?
***

Dead Cat.

http://www.burststudio.com/kitten.html

bruce said...

Re: $500,000 more for consultants

They want to sell the old Bend Bulletin building and spend the money on consultants. From the Issue Summary:

Part 2 of the Central Area Plan focuses on the Third Street Corridor and the neighborhoods adjacent to the historic downtown core. Project management for Part 2 was the responsibility of the Community Development Department. The consultant team completed their work on Part 2 in September 2007. It is now up to the City of Bend to implement the plan.
...
Discussion of the Issue: The CAP 2 consultant team prepared two possible implementation work plans for consideration: a short-term (three-year) plan and an aggressive one-year plan. City of Bend staff melded those two plans and drafted what staff believes is a feasible two-year implementation plan, which is attached at the end of this issue summary. The proposed Two-Year Work Plan was approved by the Central Area Plan Committee (appointed by Council) at their January 2008 monthly meeting.

Work on approximately half of the tasks in the Two-Year Work Plan cannot be completed until a major infrastructure (transportation, water, wastewater and stormwater) assessment is conducted first. For example, the plan recommended consideration of a one-way couplet for Second and Fourth Streets, while converting a segment of Third Street into a pedestrian-oriented boulevard with the possibility of fewer travel lanes, wider sidewalks, bike lanes, on-street parking and improved landscaping.
...
Budgetary Considerations: Following completion of the infrastructure study, Long Range Planning staff will work to implement General Plan, Development Code and Transportation System Plan amendments as proposed by the Central Area Plan. Long Range Planning Staff will be assisted by staff from other divisions and departments, including Administration, Transportation, Urban Renewal/Economic Development, and Public Works. Four of the tasks in the Two-Year Work Plan will require assistance from consultants: (1) preparing the Third Street Corridor Refinement Plan; (2) preparing the water, wastewater and stormwater infrastructure study; (3) preparing the Urban Renewal Area Plan; and (4) creating new development/design standards for the commercial zones. These consultant fees are not budgeted in the Fiscal Year 2007 – 2009 Budget. Staff’s estimate of the needed budgets is as follows:
• Third Street Corridor Refinement Plan $250,000
• Water, Wastewater and Stormwater Infrastructure Study $100,000
• Urban Renewal Area Plan $80,000
• Development/Design Standards $50,000
Total $480,000


Creation of a new staff position to administer the Central Area Plan Advocacy Office is also not budgeted in the Fiscal Year 2007 – 2008 Budget. At this time, staff is not proposing to fill this position. The Advocacy Office will be administered by existing staff. Other follow-up implementation costs will be substantial in coming years, and are not budgeted at this time.

Staff recommends funding the identified Two-Year Work Plan tasks with a transfer from the General Fund to Long Range Planning after the sale of the old Bend Bulletin site. The City Council has three options for disposition of the old Bend Bulletin site at Olney Avenue and Wall Street, including:

Option 1 - Request for Proposals: The RFP process would be similar to other property dispositions in the downtown, namely the two sites adjacent to the parking structure, the Primrose site, 919 Wall and the Greenwood/Wall site. The City Council could ask for proposals conforming to design criteria, and could choose the project by the criteria contained in the RFP, using cost as one, but not the sole criteria. In order to assure the project selected by the Council is consistent with the proposal, it is necessary for the applicant to obtain building permits prior to closing on the property. This means that all design and permitting must happen in advance of the sale. It also likely requires a longer proposal process because of the time and expense involved in meeting the criteria contained in the RFP process. It is likely that this process would take a minimum of 12-15 months possibly longer, to proceed to closing on the property. As this process is not a fair market transaction, it is likely that the purchase price would be somewhat less than an unencumbered transaction.

Option 2 - Modified Bid Process: This would involve listing the property for sale to the highest bidder, through some sort of timed bid process. The City Council could also establish a minimum price for consideration, but would retain the right to decline all bids. Design criteria would be established for the property as a condition of sale, and the criteria would have to be described in the bid document. Examples of the criteria, which would at a minimum need to conform to the underlying zoning, could include: building height, design standards such as currently exist in downtown Bend, parking requirements, etc. This process could be completed in a shorter timeframe than Option 1, assuming there were interested bidders. It is likely that this process could be completed in approximately 90 days.

Option 3 - Simple Bid Process: This approach would be similar to Option 2, but would not be encumbered by additional criteria. A minimum price could be established, and Council could reject bids. This process would have a similar timeframe to the Modified Bid (i.e. 90 days), and would be a true free market transaction. It could potentially bring a higher price than the modified bid, and would likely bring a higher bid than the RFP process.

Staff recommends that the City Council consider Option 2, the Modified Bid Process, for sale of the old Bend Bulletin site. Staff will return with proposed criteria for the bid package based on the City Council’s direction at this work session.


It's for the remake of 3rd St. into a more pedestrian-friendly area, by turning 2nd and 4th into one-ways, and dealing with the flooding at the undercrossings between 3rd and downtown.

And, of course, establishing a "Central Area Plan Advocacy Office". Can't spend a lot of taxpayer money without adequate PR explaining it, you know.

It all sounds great in the long run, but when we are cutting back public safety, on police and fire protection, I think we should perhaps move more slowly on big spending projects until we get current ones done, like the Reed Market corridor.

We are selling off assets even faster than we are cutting into our reserves. It's madness.

If anyone feels strongly enough to suggest this, just show up a little before seven and sign up to speak.

Anonymous said...

I love it, a new real estate term. The "sterilizer", (a ridiculously low offer on a piece of real estate where the seller is so desperate that he doesn't mind taking one in the satchel just to unload his crap shack).

Anonymous said...

"What happened to the BEND 2030 plan?"

I've heard the folks who worked on it are going to get together and have a "celebration" soon. What they have to celebrate I don't know.

Those of us who have been around this town for a while predicted when this thing started that it would meet the same ignominious fate as all the other "visioning" efforts that went before it -- i.e., it would be shoved in a pigeonhole and forgotten.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


http://www.burststudio.com/kitten.html


YES! 802ft on the Kitten Cannon!

That is hilarious.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I've heard the folks who worked on it are going to get together and have a "celebration" soon. What they have to celebrate I don't know.

Well, seeing as how most of these leaches are City Counsel losers who have blown millions on lining the pockets of their kickback-cousins, I'll guess the Celebration is about bleeding this town dry, and STILL not getting thrown in jail.

Anonymous said...

Rent & Invest The Diff is still a no-brainer.

***

PD --
So who are all these homeowners who are renting?

Don't they jerk you around -- because they really want to sell?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

1,759 FEET ON THE KITTEN CANNON!

Anonymous said...

1,036 ft. I'm catchin' up. I love little kitties.

timothy said...

>>Ashley Erickson

Ah, Paul, you found the hottest Realtor in bend. The amazing thing is she's actually nice and smart as a whip. And hot. Did I say hot? I don't understand why she's in Bend and not LA.

Anonymous said...

I am considering moving my family from Boise to Bend...
***

Why? Seriously.

Anonymous said...

http://bend.craigslist.org/rfs/591647377.html
***

That is NOT a HUGE backyard (and not in Bend). This is a huge backyard:
http://bend.craigslist.org/rfs/593346580.html

Why do all the good, big yards have to be in the SE? -- I can't live there! I'm not snooty, but come on: SE Bend – who lives there?

(Not too mention, that's too much to pay to live near the town dump and meth camps!)

Anonymous said...

I've heard the folks who worked on it are going to get together and have a "celebration" soon. What they have to celebrate I don't know.

Those of us who have been around this town for a while predicted when this thing started that it would meet the same ignominious fate as all the other "visioning" efforts

*

Yes, but we still get the bill 1/2M$$ a year for visioning consultants, Bend has more buried plans than Egypt has pyramids.

When do we kill the planning, and just start budgeting??

Anonymous said...

Hey I just me my wife in Warrenton, and I'm from Boise, and we're moving to Bend, we both have MBA's in real estate, and we're Mormon

We love this blog, We love Bend, can't we all just get along??

Brother Bruce, where should we look?? Should we rent? Should we buy?

Anonymous said...

Maybe when it gets down to $60/sq.ft in Bend I will leave this coast rain and buy myself one of those golf course homes near you folks.

*

You haven't been reading this blog.

Near a golf course? Why not Tetherow and pay $250/game for 18 hole, or near Redmond City Golf and pay $25/game for 18 hole.

Better yet not live near a golf course and NOT pay the additional HOA maintenance.

Anybody who spends time at this site, should know that a golf course property is the ultimate BEND-FUCK. Endless lawsuits, ... To Be Near Golf Course in Bend, is the ultimate FUCK-ME, I'm yours.

Anonymous said...

Homer,

Of all the story's that BEM could have wrote about, what a tired re-hash, almost as bad as your shit, every week re-hash.

I mean the $498M COVA inspired rant it over a year old, and BULL has never backed up the source, and we have all killed this dead-horse, and then BEM pulls this subject out of his ass and you talk like its a fucking NIRVANA.

I'm not sure what's more tiring BEM's inability to come up with new material, or your persistence of posting the same shit every sunday in a different order,

The ENTIRE basis of your rant is ..

"JUST LOWER THE PRICE".

Now, home they can't lower the price, cuz they don't own the house, so who in the fucking hell are you even talking to??

Like brother-bruce, your all a bunch of fucking renters hoping that you can buy your own home by talking down the market.

It's fucking tiring.

Anonymous said...

I was just kidding about buying a golf course home for $60/ft..........I would never pay HOA fees,WTF. Why would anybody do that for?...I got the best little course just 3 mi, from my home and it only costs $14/round. And as a bonus on my drive home on the beach, if the tide is right I can get a limit of clams

reality check said...

It's fucking tiring.
***

WTF-- why read if you don't like? Do you also watch TV shows then complain, instead of turning the channel?

You either can't handle the truth or are hoping to keep the prices jacked up so you can sell your titantics before they sink further?

There's a simple solution to your problem: Move on.

timothy said...

>>Like brother-bruce, your all a bunch of fucking renters hoping that you can buy your own home by talking down the market.

Well Duh. And don't you hate that it's working?

Dude, we're so powerful. Next year we're going to start talking down gold and wine and supermodels. Then we're GOING TO BUY THEM ALL!

Hahahahahahaha!

Hahahahahahah!

Hahahahaha!

LavaBear said...

Dude, we're so powerful. Next year we're going to start talking down gold and wine and supermodels. Then we're GOING TO BUY THEM ALL!
***

Can we add in Maui beach front property to the list? It would be nice we could talk that down to < 200 sq/ft. Thanks.

bruce said...

Re: It's fucking tiring.

Jeebus, I work at a golf course so I golf for free. Can't wait to try out Tetherow, whenever it finally opens.

Sooorrryy if reality intrudes upon your jumbo.

I'll rent as long as my cost is lower than a mortgage, taking into account the tax bennies. I would guess that is another 12-24 months around here.

So it's off to Blacksmith with the wife to dump a little money into the local economy. Her birthday and all....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


Hahahahahahaha!

Hahahahahahah!

Hahahahaha!


Exactly!

your all a bunch of fucking renters hoping that you can buy your own home by talking down the market.

Yes massa! We all jus renters hoping we can live wit da white folk. Pleeze don't beet us. FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, JUS DON'T BEET US!

atc said...

I am considering moving my family from Boise to Bend...Why?
***
I have an opportunity for a new job and I must live in one of the company's markets-Bend is the only one in the NW. From the research I've done on schools it looks like NW crossing offers the best performing public schools. It also sounds similar to where we currently live in Boise. At the $251sq/ft price though we will likely need to rent in the area while the market pukes or find some stressed property to hit with a "sterilizer" price. What would you consider to be sterilized $ sq/ft?

timothy said...

If you want High Lakes/Cascade/Summit, you are not limited to NW Crossing. Go to the Central Oregon Real Estate website and use High Lakes as the school. Note that High Lakes will be split within a year or two. I'd imagine both schools will be about equal, as the teachers will split and the demographics are similar in that whole area.

Anonymous said...

"JUST LOWER THE PRICE".

HomeBoy they can't lower the price, cuz they don't own the house, so who in the fucking hell are you even talking to??

It's fucking tiring. Every single weekly post for the past year, is the same redundant message, but who in the fuck are you talking to?? They can't lower the price, they don't own the home, and they're already under-water. Why don't you tell us how they can lower the price??

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

very single weekly post for the past year, is the same redundant message...

Is Silver Moon open on Sunday?

Anonymous said...

Good article just came out in the Atlantic Monthly, last month it was about endless Bubbles, now its about STD's becoming tomorrow's ghetto's nation-wide.

Very good story, all siberian-tracts will become low income housing. People with money are moving close-in, and the poor are moving to the suburbs.

Most of the homes around Bend built in the last six years are exactly the kind of CRAP that this article describes, sub-floors of wafer-board and glue drying out, and people falling through floors of home barely five years old. There point is that the in the past the old inner city homes were densified and apartment-ed, but this will NOT happen to the ghetto siberian tract, they were never built to last, or be upgrade for high-density. They can ONLY be demolished.

atc said...

Great tip and info - Thanks Timothy. I hope to get over there an scout in the next couple weeks, assuming the job deal closes. You guys keep up the great work!

Anonymous said...

Another great article in the new Atlantic Monthly is about roads going to hell, they have all the bad roads in the US in color, and pretty much the bad stuff in Oregon is 26, 22 and around Bend, OR.

Good graphical color showing people what to avoid, or where to go if you like traffic and roads falling apart.

Bend Economy Man said...

Of all the story's that BEM could have wrote about, what a tired re-hash, almost as bad as your shit, every week re-hash.

...

WTF-- why read if you don't like? Do you also watch TV shows then complain, instead of turning the channel?

Yeah man, you don't like it, start your own PERFECT blog, the blog that will put our feeble blogs to shame.

But besides, my plan to stop The Bulletin from using the $498M number has failed. They used it again in the Sunday edition, story headlined "Economy's diversity seen as plus."

Alana Audette, president and CEO of the Central Oregon Visitors Association, works to bring tourists to the region, where tourism has an estimated $498 million-a-year impact on the local economy, according to COVA research.

HOWEVER, the small victory is that they started calling it an "estimate" again and referred to its source: "COVA research."

So they'll keep using last year's $498 million-a-year statistic until they break the 4, 9 and 8 keys on their keyboard.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

WTF-- why read if you don't like? Do you also watch TV shows then complain, instead of turning the channel?

See what you've been missing BEM?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


Sellers offer cold, hard cash to get homes off the market
By David Fisher / The Bulletin
Published: March 03. 2008 4:00AM PST


Central Oregon homes sales are coming off of one of their worst winters in a decade, and the tenor of the industry’s sales incentives is changing.

Gone are the offers of free cars and Pottery Barn gift certificates.

In their place: cold, hard cash.

At Renaissance Homes, President Randy Sebastian is offering $12,000 to $14,000 to buy down the interest rates on homebuyers’ loans in his Bend subdivisions. At last week’s level, that amounted to an offer of 4.65 percent interest for the first 10 years — almost three-quarters of a percent below similar loans in the open market.

Across town in northeast Bend’s Lava Ridges subdivision, builder Oikos Homes is offering to make the first six months of mortgage payments for buyers who will purchase one of its last seven unsold homes, said Norma DuBois, a Coldwell Banker broker.

And up the road in Redmond, Hayden Homes is offering to pay the first year’s homeowners’ dues — about $1,200 — for buyers in its lower-priced subdivision, The Village, Hayden Homes President Dennis Murphy said.

It’s all about inventory reduction and, so far, price cuts have not done the trick, Sebastian said.

Renaissance has shaved anywhere from 11 percent to 20 percent off the list prices of its unsold homes, cutting anywhere from $50,000 to $150,000 per home in south Bend’s Renaissance Ridge and west Bend’s Shevlin Park, Sebastian said.

That helped to shrink the Lake Oswego-based builder’s local inventory from the mid-30s of early last year to 23 last week, Sebastian said, but with sales in the general market still slow, it’s concentrating its incentive packages even more aggressively on buyers’ pocketbooks.

Last year, Renaissance tried to entice people to the closing table with a February giveaway of a free Mercedes Smart Car and a summer giveaway of Pottery Barn gift certificates.

“The cars, the Pottery Barn, those were kind of on the cusp of the market slowdown,” Sebastian said Friday. “Now the incentives are a little more about the home and it’s a little more serious. People are wanting to make the home more affordable … and homes in Bend have become much more affordable.”

Sales slump

Burdened by a nationwide tightening in the credit markets and a vicious sales slowdown in much of California — one of Central Oregon’s primary feeder markets — sales statistics show that Central Oregon’s residential real estate market has had a tough winter.

Housing unit sales in Central Oregon’s three markets — Deschutes, Jefferson and Crook counties — averaged 205 units per month through 2007, according to the Central Oregon Business Index, a University of Oregon economic monitoring project conducted in partnership with The Bulletin. That was a pace not seen since 1997, said Tim Duy, a University of Oregon adjunct assistant economics professor.

In Bend, the Central Oregon Multiple Listing Service had logged fewer than 50 closed sales of homes on urban lots by the last week in February, according to data tracked by Bratton Appraisal Group’s Mike Caba, making it the slowest February for closed deals in at least 10 years.

Deschutes County building permits rose from 98 in the third quarter to 119 in the fourth quarter, but they remain at 10-year lows, according to the business index.

After a slow winter, buyer interest seemed to pick up a bit as the snow melted last month, said Laura Wahlberg, sales and marketing administrator for Renaissance. The company put 24 homes under contract statewide during its mid-February “Sweetheart’s Sale,” Wahlberg said. Three or four of those deals were in Bend.

Traffic has picked up noticeably in the region’s sales offices and open houses, DuBois said, as buyers sense that prices have moved down and sellers’ incentives to make deals have risen.

It’s difficult to say yet whether the pace of buying has accelerated significantly, since deals that go under contract this month typically won’t show up in the MLS’s sales statistics until the deals formally close in four to eight weeks, DuBois said.

Most builders have cut their prices since last spring, she said.

Private sellers also seem to be getting the idea that 2006 asking prices aren’t going to move a house in 2008, although buyers, in aggregate, are still looking for more, DuBois said. Offers are typically coming in about 5 percent to 6 percent below the asking price, she said. In a typical market, the difference is generally about 2 percent, she added.

A year ago, though, the gap between list price and offer was much higher, if offers came in at all, she said.

“We’re starting to see people come in with prices that are more in line with where the market is,” DuBois said Friday. “We’re not seeing sellers being anywhere near as unrealistic as they were before.”

Incentives

Why offer incentives instead of just lowering the price?

For builders, part of it is self-interest, DuBois said. If they lower the bar on pricing today, it’ll bring down the “comparable sale” values for future homes they try to sell in the same subdivision.

Beyond that, though, incentives can solve problems for potential buyers that simple price drops cannot, DuBois and Sebastian noted. The difference has to do with the mathematics behind a mortgage.

For example: On a $450,000 a home with 20 percent down, cutting the price by $12,000 would reduce a buyer’s monthly payments by about $55 a month in the early years of a 5.43 percent adjustable rate loan. But using the same $12,000 to buy the initial interest rate down to 4.65 percent would cut $170 a month out of the payment — potentially making it easier for buyers to qualify in the early years, DuBois said, and giving them a chance to boost their incomes and build equity before the rates adjust upward.

“As far as the builder goes, it’s a good thing to do because you are doing something for the client that they really can’t do later,” Sebastian said. “They can’t really go back in and buy their rate down later, after they’re in the house. … So we take care of that up front.”

Private sellers can offer similar incentives, DuBois said. Depending on the situation, she recommends that sellers use part of their equity to finance “3-2-1 buydowns” — loans that charge payments based on interest rates that are 3 percentage points below market in the first year, 2 points under in the second and 1 point in the third — rather than dropping their prices by a similar amount.

That, again, can help a potential buyer qualify, DuBois said.

And incentives like Oikos’, in which the seller offers to pay the entire payment for some set period of time, can help move houses to people coming from tough markets like California, where they may be worried about their ability to sell their former homes after they’ve bought into a new Central Oregon deal.

Where are incentives likely to go as the year moves on?

It’s all about the inventory, Sebastian said. Empty houses are expensive to build and expensive to hold. Prices are unlikely to drop much further on new homes, he said, because they are cutting close to costs as it is — builders will just stop building if the downward march continues, rather than lose money putting up new units. But if the current unsold inventory melts away over the course of the year, the incentives will diminish or disappear and prices will at least stabilize, he said.

“I think they just want to unload as much inventory as they can, in whatever way they can,” DuBois said.

David Fisher can be reached at 617-7862 or at dfisher@bendbulletin.com.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Same shit, different day...

Aug 11, 2006: Anecdotally, Coldwell Banker-Morris broker Norma DuBois said the agents in her office have seen an uptick in prospective buyers in the last couple of weeks, while the flood of homes entering the market seems to have slowed.

Today: Traffic has picked up noticeably in the region’s sales offices and open houses, DuBois said, as buyers sense that prices have moved down and sellers’ incentives to make deals have risen.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Sing with me now...

"The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow,
Bet Your Bottom Dollar That Tomorrow,
There'll Be Sun....

TOMORROW!
TOMORROW!

I love ya, TOMORROW

You're always a day, UHHHHHH WAYYYYYY"

Good call Norma.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

In Bend, the Central Oregon Multiple Listing Service had logged fewer than 50 closed sales of homes on urban lots by the last week in February, according to data tracked by Bratton Appraisal Group’s Mike Caba, making it the slowest February for closed deals in at least 10 years.

And according to mstucker, it's probably the slowest in at least 20 years, cuz MLS data only goes back to 1997, when there were 101 solds in Feb 1997.

And it's almost certainly the slowest per capita in MANY decades...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

More by Real Estate Experts from last October:

Not all bad

There have been notable bright spots this year. Seventy-three homes valued at $1 million or more have sold so far this year, DuBois said, the same number that sold in all of 2006. And townhome and condo sales, largely driven by “lifestyle” buyers looking for low-maintenance living, have surged in Bend, rising 21 percent from 2006’s third-quarter levels to 167 sales through the third quarter so far this year.

And despite the overall market’s gloomy numbers, DuBois and Bratton said they see no signs of panic, despite projections of a deeper downdraft from some quarters.

A conference facilitator put up an overhead graph from Bend money manager and radio commentator Bill Valentine, showing Valentine’s projection that the Bend real estate market will perform 50 percent worse than the national economy in the downturn, since it outperformed the nation by about that amount on the way up in the boom years.

“It sure doesn’t feel that way,” DuBois said. “I mean, just being out there in the marketplace and working with buyers and sellers. Sure it’s taken a hit, but it doesn’t feel like we’ve gone the complete opposite of where we were. We’re just making a correction.”

Sebastian said he plans to build about 200 homes next year companywide, with about 50 to 60 going up in Bend. Murphy said about 100 of his company’s 600 starts will be in Central Oregon.

On the investment side, Bratton said he’d put money into developable Bend residential land, figuring that the city’s urban growth boundary expansion will remain stalled until the market feels a shortage again.


IT'S DIFFERENT IN BEND. WE ARE IMMUNE.

At least we were 5 months ago...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

That helped to shrink the Lake Oswego-based builder’s local inventory from the mid-30s of early last year to 23 last week, Sebastian said, but with sales in the general market still slow, it’s concentrating its incentive packages even more aggressively on buyers’ pocketbooks.

So Renaissance sold down inventory by about 10 homes in Bend last year, with plans to build more... "with about 50 to 60 going up in Bend".

Uh huh.

I think even Bill Valentine is starting to look like a raging optimist.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Bratton said he’d put money into developable Bend residential land...

Everyone got that? Buy DEVELOPABLE residential land! Bratton, local REAL ESTATE EXPERT said so!

Hmmmm... wait. What has been the SINGLE WORST RE INVESTMENT IN THE PAST YEAR?

Oh, right, right, right...

DEVELOPABLE RESIDENTIAL LAND.

Nice.

And yes Timmy... "developable" doesn't pass my spell check either...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Interesting...

Last October: Sebastian said he plans to build about 200 homes next year companywide, with about 50 to 60 going up in Bend.

Now: After a slow winter, buyer interest seemed to pick up a bit as the snow melted last month, said Laura Wahlberg, sales and marketing administrator for Renaissance. The company put 24 homes under contract statewide during its mid-February “Sweetheart’s Sale,” Wahlberg said. Three or four of those deals were in Bend.

We account for 1 in 8 sales for Renaissance, but almost 1 in 3 newly built homes are planned for Bend.

BUILD ON!

NEVER STOP BUILDING!

WE NEED MORE HOMES!

The Methers of Tomorrow will need a place to SQUAT!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Bratton said he’d put money into developable Bend residential land...

I should say that bare land inside Bend has been the single worst RE idea since Bratton said this.... which was about 5 months ago.

His premise is OK... it's just these RE wonks don't understand the market anymore.

IT'S OVER, WONKS.

timothy said...

>>now its about STD's becoming tomorrow's ghetto's nation-wide.

Yes. Even in boomtown--Charlotte NC, which is still showing upticks. There are brand-spanking new pretty new neighborhoods on the outskirts that were just built at the wrong time (the wrong time here means early last year when people trying to move from other states to Charlotte couldn't manage to sell their homes, and couldn't qualify for strict new loans).

These neighborhoods, instead of immediately filling up and becoming instant weenie-roast little happy family neighborhoods, only filled up 15% of the way, and then almost immediately discovered they had problems with stone-throwing and house stripping. Homeowners in there are scared and angry, as no one wants to or can move in next to them, and if they do, it's for 30% less than they paid.

It's amazing how fast this process can happen. I think people who want to save their partially-occupied neighborhoods are actually going to have to dig into their pockets and hire security. They have to help themselves.

This is in Charlotte, an incredible rich town supported by two Fortune 500 banks. But the downtowners are only going to look out for downtown and the inner suburbs. All the old, rich neighborhoods are self-satisfied and uninterested in the plight of the rim neighborhoods.

Bend isn't even in the same league as a rich city that has resources. Newbies are already emptying their wallets to live here. They're not going to shell out more to save a city they only recently moved to.

timothy said...

The Bulletin business page is positively depressing today.

bruce said...

Re: The Bulletin business page is positively depressing today.

Yeah, I was just reading it, too...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The Bulletin business page is positively depressing today.

Uhhhh, pardon me, but DuBois has made it pretty clear that the Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow.

Traffic has picked up noticeably in the region’s sales offices and open houses, DuBois said...

Do I have to start singing?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

From The Atlantic:

The subprime crisis is just the tip of the iceberg. Fundamental changes in American life may turn today’s McMansions into tomorrow’s tenements.

by Christopher B. Leinberger


The Next Slum?

Strange days are upon the residents of many a suburban cul-de-sac. Once-tidy yards have become overgrown, as the houses they front have gone vacant. Signs of physical and social disorder are spreading.

At Windy Ridge, a recently built starter-home development seven miles northwest of Charlotte, North Carolina, 81 of the community’s 132 small, vinyl-sided houses were in foreclosure as of late last year. Vandals have kicked in doors and stripped the copper wire from vacant houses; drug users and homeless people have furtively moved in. In December, after a stray bullet blasted through her son’s bedroom and into her own, Laurie Talbot, who’d moved to Windy Ridge from New York in 2005, told The Charlotte Observer, “I thought I’d bought a home in Pleasantville. I never imagined in my wildest dreams that stuff like this would happen.”

In the Franklin Reserve neighborhood of Elk Grove, California, south of Sacramento, the houses are nicer than those at Windy Ridge—many once sold for well over $500,000—but the phenomenon is the same. At the height of the boom, 10,000 new homes were built there in just four years. Now many are empty; renters of dubious character occupy others. Graffiti, broken windows, and other markers of decay have multiplied. Susan McDonald, president of the local residents’ association and an executive at a local bank, told the Associated Press, “There’s been gang activity. Things have really been changing, the last few years.”

In the first half of last year, residential burglaries rose by 35 percent and robberies by 58 percent in suburban Lee County, Florida, where one in four houses stands empty. Charlotte’s crime rates have stayed flat overall in recent years—but from 2003 to 2006, in the 10 suburbs of the city that have experienced the highest foreclosure rates, crime rose 33 percent. Civic organizations in some suburbs have begun to mow the lawns around empty houses to keep up the appearance of stability. Police departments are mapping foreclosures in an effort to identify emerging criminal hot spots.

The decline of places like Windy Ridge and Franklin Reserve is usually attributed to the subprime-mortgage crisis, with its wave of foreclosures. And the crisis has indeed catalyzed or intensified social problems in many communities. But the story of vacant suburban homes and declining suburban neighborhoods did not begin with the crisis, and will not end with it. A structural change is under way in the housing market—a major shift in the way many Americans want to live and work. It has shaped the current downturn, steering some of the worst problems away from the cities and toward the suburban fringes. And its effects will be felt more strongly, and more broadly, as the years pass. Its ultimate impact on the suburbs, and the cities, will be profound.

Arthur C. Nelson, director of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, has looked carefully at trends in American demographics, construction, house prices, and consumer preferences. In 2006, using recent consumer research, housing supply data, and population growth rates, he modeled future demand for various types of housing. The results were bracing: Nelson forecasts a likely surplus of 22 million large-lot homes (houses built on a sixth of an acre or more) by 2025—that’s roughly 40 percent of the large-lot homes in existence today.

For 60 years, Americans have pushed steadily into the suburbs, transforming the landscape and (until recently) leaving cities behind. But today the pendulum is swinging back toward urban living, and there are many reasons to believe this swing will continue. As it does, many low-density suburbs and McMansion subdivisions, including some that are lovely and affluent today, may become what inner cities became in the 1960s and ’70s—slums characterized by poverty, crime, and decay.

The suburban dream began, arguably, at the New York World’s Fair of 1939 and ’40. “Highways and Horizons,” better known as “Futurama,” was overwhelmingly the fair’s most popular exhibit; perhaps 10 percent of the American population saw it. At the heart of the exhibit was a scale model, covering an area about the size of a football field, that showed what American cities and towns might look like in 1960. Visitors watched matchbox-sized cars zip down wide highways. Gone were the crowded tenements of the time; 1960s Americans would live in stand-alone houses with spacious yards and attached garages. The exhibit would not impress us today, but at the time, it inspired wonder. E. B. White wrote in Harper’s, “A ride on the Futurama … induces approximately the same emotional response as a trip through the Cathedral of St. John the Divine … I didn’t want to wake up.”

The suburban transformation that began in 1946, as GIs returned home, took almost half a century to complete, as first people, then retail, then jobs moved out of cities and into new subdivisions, malls, and office parks. As families decamped for the suburbs, they left behind out-of-fashion real estate, a poorer residential base, and rising crime. Once-thriving central-city retail districts were killed off by the combination of regional suburban malls and the 1960s riots. By the end of the 1970s, people seeking safety and good schools generally had little alternative but to move to the suburbs. In 1981, Escape From New York, starring Kurt Russell, depicted a near future in which Manhattan had been abandoned, fenced off, and turned into an unsupervised penitentiary.

Cities, of course, have made a long climb back since then. Just nine years after Russell escaped from the wreck of New York, Seinfeld—followed by Friends, then Sex and the City—began advertising the city’s renewed urban allure to Gen-Xers and Millennials. Many Americans, meanwhile, became disillusioned with the sprawl and stupor that sometimes characterize suburban life. These days, when Hollywood wants to portray soullessness, despair, or moral decay, it often looks to the suburbs—as The Sopranos and Desperate Housewives attest—for inspiration.

In the past decade, as cities have gentrified, the suburbs have continued to grow at a breakneck pace. Atlanta’s sprawl has extended nearly to Chattanooga; Fort Worth and Dallas have merged; and Los Angeles has swung a leg over the 10,000-foot San Gabriel Mountains into the Mojave Desert. Some experts expect conventional suburbs to continue to sprawl ever outward. Yet today, American metropolitan residential patterns and cultural preferences are mirror opposites of those in the 1940s. Most Americans now live in single-family suburban houses that are segregated from work, shopping, and entertainment; but it is urban life, almost exclusively, that is culturally associated with excitement, freedom, and diverse daily life. And as in the 1940s, the real-estate market has begun to react.

Pent-up demand for urban living is evident in housing prices. Twenty years ago, urban housing was a bargain in most central cities. Today, it carries an enormous price premium. Per square foot, urban residential neighborhood space goes for 40 percent to 200 percent more than traditional suburban space in areas as diverse as New York City; Portland, Oregon; Seattle; and Washington, D.C.

It’s crucial to note that these premiums have arisen not only in central cities, but also in suburban towns that have walkable urban centers offering a mix of residential and commercial development. For instance, luxury single-family homes in suburban Westchester County, just north of New York City, sell for $375 a square foot. A luxury condo in downtown White Plains, the county’s biggest suburban city, can cost you $750 a square foot. This same pattern can be seen in the suburbs of Detroit, or outside Seattle. People are being drawn to the convenience and culture of walkable urban neighborhoods across the country—even when those neighborhoods are small.

Builders and developers tend to notice big price imbalances, and they are working to accommodate demand for urban living. New lofts and condo complexes have popped up all over many big cities. Suburban towns built in the 19th and early 20th centuries, featuring downtown street grids at their core, have seen a good deal of “in-filling” in recent years as well, with new condos and town houses, and renovated small-lot homes just outside their downtowns. And while urban construction may slow for a time because of the present housing bust, it will surely continue. Sprawling, large-lot suburbs become less attractive as they become more densely built, but urban areas—especially those well served by public transit—become more appealing as they are filled in and built up. Crowded sidewalks tend to be safe and lively, and bigger crowds can support more shops, restaurants, art galleries.

But developers are also starting to find ways to bring the city to newer suburbs—and provide an alternative to conventional, car-based suburban life. “Lifestyle centers”—walkable developments that create an urban feel, even when built in previously undeveloped places—are becoming popular with some builders. They feature narrow streets and small storefronts that come up to the sidewalk, mixed in with housing and office space. Parking is mostly hidden underground or in the interior of faux city blocks.

The granddaddy of all lifestyle centers is the Reston Town Center, located between Virginia’s Dulles International Airport and Washington, D.C. Since it opened in 1990, it has become the “downtown” for western Fairfax and eastern Loudoun counties; a place for the kids to see Santa and for teenagers to ice skate. People living in the town can stroll from the movie theater to restaurants and then back home. A 2006 study by the Brookings Institution showed that Reston’s apartments, condominiums, and office and retail space were all commanding about a 50 percent rent or price premium over the typically suburban houses, office parks, and strip malls nearby.

Housing at Belmar, the new “downtown” in Lakewood, Colorado, a middle-income inner suburb of Denver, commands a 60 percent premium per square foot over the single-family homes in the neighborhoods around it. The development covers about 20 small blocks in all. What’s most noteworthy is its history: it was built on the site of a razed mall.

Building lifestyle centers is far more complex than building McMansion developments (or malls). These new, faux-urban centers have many moving parts, and they need to achieve critical mass quickly to attract buyers and retailers. As a result, during the 1990s, lifestyle centers spread slowly. But real-estate developers are gaining more experience with this sort of building, and it is proliferating. Very few, if any, regional malls are being built these days—lifestyle centers are going up instead.

In most metropolitan areas, only 5 to 10 percent of the housing stock is located in walkable urban places (including places like downtown White Plains and Belmar). Yet recent consumer research by Jonathan Levine of the University of Michigan and Lawrence Frank of the University of British Columbia suggests that roughly one in three homeowners would prefer to live in these types of places. In one study, for instance, Levine and his colleagues asked more than 1,600 mostly suburban residents of the Atlanta and Boston metro areas to hypothetically trade off typical suburban amenities (such as large living spaces) against typical urban ones (like living within walking distance of retail districts). All in all, they found that only about a third of the people surveyed solidly preferred traditional suburban lifestyles, featuring large houses and lots of driving. Another third, roughly, had mixed feelings. The final third wanted to live in mixed-use, walkable urban areas—but most had no way to do so at an affordable price. Over time, as urban and faux-urban building continues, that will change.

Demographic changes in the United States also are working against conventional suburban growth, and are likely to further weaken preferences for car-based suburban living. When the Baby Boomers were young, families with children made up more than half of all households; by 2000, they were only a third of households; and by 2025, they will be closer to a quarter. Young people are starting families later than earlier generations did, and having fewer children. The Boomers themselves are becoming empty-nesters, and many have voiced a preference for urban living. By 2025, the U.S. will contain about as many single-person households as families with children.

Because the population is growing, families with children will still grow in absolute number—according to U.S. Census data, there will be about 4 million more households with children in 2025 than there were in 2000. But more than 10 million new single-family homes have already been built since 2000, most of them in the suburbs.

If gasoline and heating costs continue to rise, conventional suburban living may not be much of a bargain in the future. And as more Americans, particularly affluent Americans, move into urban communities, families may find that some of the suburbs’ other big advantages—better schools and safer communities—have eroded. Schooling and safety are likely to improve in urban areas, as those areas continue to gentrify; they may worsen in many suburbs if the tax base—often highly dependent on house values and new development—deteriorates. Many of the fringe counties in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area, for instance, are projecting big budget deficits in 2008. Only Washington itself is expecting a large surplus. Fifteen years ago, this budget situation was reversed.

The U.S. grows its total stock of housing and commercial space by, at most, 3 percent each year, so the imbalance between the supply of urban living options and the demand for them is not going to disappear overnight. But over the next 20 years, developers will likely produce many, many millions of new and newly renovated town houses, condos, and small-lot houses in and around both new and traditional downtowns.

As conventional suburban lifestyles fall out of fashion and walkable urban alternatives proliferate, what will happen to obsolete large-lot houses? One might imagine culs-de-sac being converted to faux Main Streets, or McMansion developments being bulldozed and reforested or turned into parks. But these sorts of transformations are likely to be rare. Suburbia’s many small parcels of land, held by different owners with different motivations, make the purchase of whole neighborhoods almost unheard-of. Condemnation of single-family housing for “higher and better use” is politically difficult, and in most states it has become almost legally impossible in recent years. In any case, the infrastructure supporting large-lot suburban residential areas—roads, sewer and water lines—cannot support the dense development that urbanization would require, and is not easy to upgrade. Once large-lot, suburban residential landscapes are built, they are hard to unbuild.

The experience of cities during the 1950s through the ’80s suggests that the fate of many single-family homes on the metropolitan fringes will be resale, at rock-bottom prices, to lower-income families—and in all likelihood, eventual conversion to apartments.

This future is not likely to wear well on suburban housing. Many of the inner-city neighborhoods that began their decline in the 1960s consisted of sturdily built, turn-of-the-century row houses, tough enough to withstand being broken up into apartments, and requiring relatively little upkeep. By comparison, modern suburban houses, even high-end McMansions, are cheaply built. Hollow doors and wallboard are less durable than solid-oak doors and lath-and-plaster walls. The plywood floors that lurk under wood veneers or carpeting tend to break up and warp as the glue that holds the wood together dries out; asphalt-shingle roofs typically need replacing after 10 years. Many recently built houses take what structural integrity they have from drywall—their thin wooden frames are too flimsy to hold the houses up.

As the residents of inner-city neighborhoods did before them, suburban homeowners will surely try to prevent the division of neighborhood houses into rental units, which would herald the arrival of the poor. And many will likely succeed, for a time. But eventually, the owners of these fringe houses will have to sell to someone, and they’re not likely to find many buyers; offers from would-be landlords will start to look better, and neighborhood restrictions will relax. Stopping a fundamental market shift by legislation or regulation is generally impossible.

Of course, not all suburbs will suffer this fate. Those that are affluent and relatively close to central cities—especially those along rail lines—are likely to remain in high demand. Some, especially those that offer a thriving, walkable urban core, may find that even the large-lot, residential-only neighborhoods around that core increase in value. Single-family homes next to the downtowns of Redmond, Washington; Evanston, Illinois; and Birmingham, Michigan, for example, are likely to hold their values just fine.

On the other hand, many inner suburbs that are on the wrong side of town, and poorly served by public transport, are already suffering what looks like inexorable decline. Low-income people, displaced from gentrifying inner cities, have moved in, and longtime residents, seeking more space and nicer neighborhoods, have moved out.

But much of the future decline is likely to occur on the fringes, in towns far away from the central city, not served by rail transit, and lacking any real core. In other words, some of the worst problems are likely to be seen in some of the country’s more recently developed areas—and not only those inhabited by subprime-mortgage borrowers. Many of these areas will become magnets for poverty, crime, and social dysfunction.

Despite this glum forecast for many swaths of suburbia, we should not lose sight of the bigger picture—the shift that’s under way toward walkable urban living is a healthy development. In the most literal sense, it may lead to better personal health and a slimmer population. The environment, of course, will also benefit: if New York City were its own state, it would be the most energy-efficient state in the union; most Manhattanites not only walk or take public transit to get around, they unintentionally share heat with their upstairs neighbors.

Perhaps most important, the shift to walkable urban environments will give more people what they seem to want. I doubt the swing toward urban living will ever proceed as far as the swing toward the suburbs did in the 20th century; many people will still prefer the bigger houses and car-based lifestyles of conventional suburbs. But there will almost certainly be more of a balance between walkable and drivable communities—allowing people in most areas a wider variety of choices.

By the estimate of Virginia Tech’s Arthur Nelson, as much as half of all real-estate development on the ground in 2025 will not have existed in 2000. It’s exciting to imagine what the country will look like then. Building and residential migration seem to progress slowly from year to year, yet then one day, in retrospect, the landscape seems to have been transformed in the blink of an eye. Unfortunately, the next transformation, like the ones before it, will leave some places diminished. About 25 years ago, Escape From New York perfectly captured the zeitgeist of its moment. Two or three decades from now, the next Kurt Russell may find his breakout role in Escape From the Suburban Fringe.

Anonymous said...

"I am considering moving my family from Boise to Bend"

atc - Do not move your family from Boise to Bend. I spent 6 years in Boise. I live in Bend now but will leave later this year.

I am all over the US constantly. There are few towns better than Boise to raise kids.

Summit High? Northwest Crossing? I can't even begin to prepare you for the problem you'll find at Summit High.

Probably the only thing worse then Summit High is the shit-hole feeder school called Cascade Middle School.

The local school district is corrupt and incompetent - just like the town.

Listen to the old timers on this blog. They got insight that is spot on even if you don't want to hear it.

Lurking behind all of this is the sad fact that your kids will have to flee this shit-hole for any chance at a better life. Is that what you want? To live in a town where your family can't put down long-term roots?

Do not come to Bend to raise a family.

Come here to retire and be angry and/or diffident.

Bend owns that franchise.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

A print low on CACB this morning of $10.00 even. At $10.01 right now....

WELCOME NINES!

Anonymous said...

Renters talking the market down.

I came to town recently with a good budget, looked at a zilion houses (mostly vacant) and rented.

All my houses on my watch list have dropped 10% since then.

It's working......

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Huh... the print low on CACB just exploded higher... to $10.01....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Warren Buffett has withdrawn his offer to reinsure $800 billion of municipal bonds guaranteed by MBIA Inc., Ambac Financial and FGIC, the billionaire chairman of Berkshire Hathaway said on Monday.

Musta woke up & smelled the coffee...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Strange activity on CACB today. I've seen the daily volume hit 49K... then go DOWN to 29K. I've seen a print low of $10.00, revised UP to $10.01.

Weird.

Anonymous said...

youwalkaway.com


is NOW the #1 site in America, ...

3M americans have signed on, ... live rent free, stay forever,

every one .. " you walk away dot com "

Anonymous said...

But besides, my plan to stop The Bulletin from using the $498M number has failed. They used it again in the Sunday edition, story headlined "Economy's diversity seen as plus."

*

I knew that would happen, its like the renters here praying for housing to drop, and someone said that bloggers had no influence, yet BEM said when he issued his blog last week that the BULL would no more print $498M cuz, he had told them to stop, well guess what BEM, they didn't listen,

Make you think that nobody is alive at the BULL, thats it just old COPY they keep pulling out and running over & over.

I have written about $498M, and COVA/VCB/DVA what 10,000 times here? This is why I thought it was re-hash, I mean you could have written about a lot of topical issues BEM, like 2008, ... If someone wants to write about COVA/VCB/DVA, then name the names, and the family ties between the BULL & VCB.

Yes, no doubt that $498M was pulled out of an ass, and repeated over&over that its now a magic Bend number, forever to be used, and quoted, ... and even the MIGHTY BEM told them to stop, and they ignored him.

I have said over&over, the only way to stop the bastards is to name, names and embarrass the bastards.

Once Friedman & Johnsons heads roll later this spring/summer over this PAPE/INN7/HOA scam, then you'll start seeing some editorial, and that's when all these names have to start rolling off peoples tongue, this town is going to go down quick.

Anonymous said...

There must be a whole bunch of program trading on CACB @ $10, there seems to be a real resistance at that price.

Anonymous said...

MLS MEDIANS in BEND don't mean shit, look at the article in the BULL about 'cash' to home buyers, how they're tossing in 4% loans @10yrs, but they'll NOT LOWER price, ..

Why cuz in Bend, the kleptocrats are well organized to NOT let the price 'collapse' 30% like places in FL&CA, they want to show BEND as a firm pillow. Trouble is these boyz still got lots of TOXIC shit to unload, and they'll ALL keep those prices UP, but HONESTLY WHAT DOES IT REALLY FUCKING MATTER?

Like the Atlantic story, which got posted here today, says anybody that BUYS an STD in BEND, is making the ultimate FUCK.

$50 PPSF for STD's NO problem, ... So medians don't go down, cuz Realtors and Builders will not let price go down, so MEDIANS don't mean shit.

Then there is PPSF which doesn't mean shit, cuz its never tied to an area or lot, I'm going to define PPSF-X, where 'X' is A-Z

A- it big lots near drake park, highly desirable inner hood, high quality, built to last 100 years

Z- is DRW or Madras STD remote siberia, small lot, and low quality

Some where in the middle of A->Z is all the lots,quality, and location.

Ok, SURE as FUCK the PPSF-Z will go to $50/sqft, no fucking problem,

But most of the PPSF-A is only 1100sq-ft, and will HOLD fine at $220k, so it will NOT fall below $200/sq-ft.

Just like BEND MLS-MEDIAN, we need the same thing MED-A->Z, so when we talk median, we know what the fucking hell your talking about,

A median at BT, is NOT a median in DRW or east of SE27th in the badlands. A median in inner Bend, near the park, where homes are 100% occupied is 'A' space, but the shit in Siberian 'F' to 'Z' is only 30% occupied at best.

Ok, so above is why medians and ppsf drive me crazy here, cuz they don't tell shit, what makes an 'A'

1.) A big lot over 1/4 acre, or 10,000 sqft, old trees, off street parking, nice big double lot, ...

2.) location, location, location,

3.) quality, home built to fucking last,


As we move towards ... Z

1.) All homes in Bend built after 2002 have NO quality, all built to last five years tops,

2.) Nobody wants to be in siberia, its over, like atlantic says

3.) small lots suck, no place to park the RV, boat, and toyz suck, no reason to live here if you don't have lots of off-street storage

Anonymous said...

Seattle Builders solve 'housing liquidation problem', blame environmentalists, note the 'green' thing here just like Sebastian, our own. Want to see the future of Bend?? Watch Seattle.

***

'Street of Dreams' fires may be domestic terrorism

10:11 AM PST on Monday, March 3, 2008

By TIM ROBINSON / KING 5 News and Associated Press


Video: Raw: Spectacular blaze destroys Street of Dreams homes
Larger screen E-mail this clip

WOODINVILLE, Wash. - The FBI says it's investigating the "Street of Dreams" luxury home fires near Woodinville as a potential domestic terrorism act.

Flames destroyed at least three homes in the "Street of Dreams" model luxury home development in the Echo Lake area.

No injuries were reported in the three-alarm fire, which started around 5 a.m. Monday.

A sign with the initials of a radical environmental group was found at the scene, an official said.

The sign, which had the initials of the Earth Liberation Front, mocked claims the luxury homes on the "Street of Dreams" were environmentally friendly.

"Built Green? Nope black!" the sign said.

Anonymous said...

Fears of foreclosure sparking arson for quick insurance cash
by Benjamin Helfrich
Feb 28, 2008

WASHINGTON – Some cash-strapped homeowners, facing financial ruin from foreclosure, are torching their homes and filing bogus insurance claims in frantic attempts to avoid eviction, causing fears that arson might become more frequent as woes continue.

“The warning signs for desperate homeowners are right on our doorstep,” said James Quiggle, spokesman for the Council Against Insurance Fraud. “They’re looking for any shot of quick cash to bail themselves out.”

The number of self-inflicted arson cases is small, but it’s surfacing in a handful of states, especially in those hardest hit by the subprime lending fiasco, like California, where suspect residential blazes have doubled in the last two years.

“The all-out explosion in arsons hasn’t happened yet,” Quiggle said. “But, there are a growing number of arrests of homeowners whose homes are being foreclosed upon and then suspiciously burn down.”

Last year, 1.3 million properties nationwide were in foreclosure with roughly 14 percent of all mortgages in the U.S. being subprime. By the end of the year, an estimated 2 million more families will be evicted due to foreclosure, according to a study released by Bread for the World, an anti-hunger advocacy group.

In Michigan, which is third among states hit hardest by subprime lending, a woman received five years probation Monday after setting fire to mattresses in her garage with her family inside in order to collect insurance money and avoid an impending foreclosure.

Another man was charged last month in Texas -- where subprime mortgages represent 16.7 percent of all loans -- for allegedly setting ablaze his own soon-to-be foreclosed home and spray painting racial slurs on the walls to make it look like a hate crime.

Instances of arson on residential properties facing foreclosure to collect on insurance are known in at least four other states.

Michael Barry, vice president for media relations at the Insurance Information Institute, can’t fathom why homeowners would send their own property up in smoke.

Insurance claims for arson, at most, will cover the cost of the actual house, not the land that it occupies, Barry said. Therefore, the most a homeowner can receive from an insurance company is far less than what is still owed on a mortgage.

“You’re not ‘made whole’ by burning the house down,” Barry said.

“What you’re doing is making your insurer give you enough money to rebuild what you had and then you’re sitting back at square one,” he added. “Thinking it through for more than 30 seconds, it makes no sense.”

Krissy Posey, a spokeswoman for the Northbrook, Ill.-based insurance company Allstate Corp., acknowledges a spike in residential arson across the country, but says it’s too early to tell why it is happening.

“We’ve seen an increase nationally for homeowner claims for arson…but we can’t particularly nail it down to any one reason,” she said.

The FBI’s latest available crime data, for 2006shows a 4 percent uptick in residential arson, during the period when subprime mortgage woes began to surface.

To Quiggle, the data doesn’t necessarily indicate a trend, but it is something that has fire inspectors on high alert.

“Does this prove that it’s happening? No, but it does send out smoke signals that investigators are keeping a close eye on,” Quiggle said.

PopGoesBend said...

2.) Nobody wants to be in siberia, its over, like atlantic says

3.) small lots suck, no place to park the RV, boat, and toyz suck, no reason to live here if you don't have lots of off-street storage


These two views are opposing. We can't all live close in on large lots - there just isn't that much land. In order for there to be lots of people close in we need density. Density = smaller lots.

Re-read the Atlantic article, paying close attention to this paragraph: Suburban towns built in the 19th and early 20th centuries, featuring downtown street grids at their core, have seen a good deal of “in-filling” in recent years as well, with new condos and town houses, and renovated small-lot homes just outside their downtowns. And while urban construction may slow for a time because of the present housing bust, it will surely continue. Sprawling, large-lot suburbs become less attractive as they become more densely built, but urban areas—especially those well served by public transit—become more appealing as they are filled in and built up.


People are giving up the big lot in the burbs to get a small lot where they can walk to stores, restaurants and work. Smaller lots are ok if you have a smaller house. Smaller houses are ok if they are well designed. Most houses in Bend are not well designed and have inefficient floor plans. A well designed 1500 sq foot house can be much more liveable and make the resident much happer than a poorly designed 2500 sq foot house. The smaller house will be easier to heat and maintain, and allow for much higher finishes for the same build price.

The future: small, well thought out and well built homes on smaller lots. Sell one of your cars and walk to the store. That's probably a pipe dream - but I can dream can't I?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1ZeXnmDZMQ

Anonymous said...

BENDBB has deleted the 'atlantic-monthly' story from his site, perhaps timmy or someone can post it over there, its essential that these realtors to be told the truth that their precious STD's are tomorrows ghetto.

Anonymous said...

There are lots of double lots in DOWN-TOWN BEND, I own a bunch of them, perhaps you don't get around enough drive around south of Newport Market and look around, you'll see lots of BIG old treed lots with RV's and boats in the yard, and you can walk to the store, ... downtown, this is living in Bend.

All the STD's are on TINY lots, and HOA's don't even FUCKING allow YARD-TOYS,

NO fucking comparison,

timothy said...

>>Ok, so above is why medians and ppsf drive me crazy here, cuz they don't tell shit, what makes an 'A'

I know the medians drive you nuts. And you're right. Your assertion that medians are crooked and skewed is smart and 100% correct.

But I'll tell you why they DO matter. When the Realtors' own crooked yardstick makes things look like shit, then you know that things really are shit. The tool they used to claim that we're on an ever-upward journey has betrayed them.

It's like when a sweet little 5-year-old tells a stranger that Mommy has a bit of a mustache she has to shave off now and then. It's an unexpected and comical betrayal.

So, yeah, medians suck. Census and Case-Shiller make more sense. But go ahead and savor the fact that the Realtors now have NOTHING to fall back on.

Anonymous said...

People are giving up the big lot in the burbs to get a small lot where they can walk to stores, restaurants and work. Smaller lots are ok if you have a smaller house.
*

A small lot to me is 1/4 acre ( 10k sqft ) , a big urban lot is a double 20k ( 1/2 acre ).

Most of the new homes built will be demolished, and folks will get their yards back,

Bend is the desert, sure in PDX within a mile of downtown, you'll see very few 1/2acre lots, but in BEND, there will always be big lots with NO FUCKING HOA's ( RULES ).

BEND is NOT an urban city, it will always be a desert town.

If you want a fucking STD in siberia, and if you want an HOA, then go to fucking HOLLERN and buy his shit.

Anonymous said...

Will someone re-post the Atlantic-Monthly story on BENDBB so we can have a real debate on this subject.


Please, it will probably have to be a moderator, I really don't see how BENDBB could find the Story objectionable, but then he isn't rational.

Anonymous said...

So, yeah, medians suck. Census and Case-Shiller make more sense. But go ahead and savor the fact that the Realtors now have NOTHING to fall back on. - tim

*

Tim, First of ALL please post the atlantic-monthly story on BENDBB, and make sure CUNT doesn't delete it,

WRT to MLS the problem is for US, MEDIANS&PPSF drive me crazy, cuz we're not transferring information to one another, I concur MLS is fucked, but does that mean we should use worthless data.

Sure people here can print the MLS figures and say ha-ha, ... But when WE the bloggers report PPSF and MEDIANS, ... we need MORE info attached,

Peronsally I don't give a fuck about STD ppsf-Z cuz I would never fucking BUY in HOA land to begin with. I ONLY want to know abotu PPSF-A,B,C cuz thats the good stuff.

HOLLERN, SEBASTIAN, et-al have a terrible problem, selling STD's, and the Atlantic-Monthly puts the cross in their heart, something I have said here all along, this STD shit will ALL be demolished, cuz its going to be an eyesore, and will NEVER sell, and MOST of what has KEPT BEND busy is building STD's, with permanant SDC exemption/deferral.

Anonymous said...

The future: small, well thought out and well built homes on smaller lots. Sell one of your cars and walk to the store. That's probably a pipe dream - but I can dream can't I?

*

Yeh, we got it, its called NWXC, and its going to be tomorrows ghetto, already next to a high-school with 100's of latchkey kids, and rentals, A FUCKING GHETTO.

BUT that's your dream, and you got it, so go live there,

PopGoesBend said...

A small lot to me is 1/4 acre ( 10k sqft ) , a big urban lot is a double 20k ( 1/2 acre ).

Most of the new homes built will be demolished, and folks will get their yards back,

Bend is the desert, sure in PDX within a mile of downtown, you'll see very few 1/2acre lots, but in BEND, there will always be big lots with NO FUCKING HOA's ( RULES ).


Do the math - 70,000 people, or around 28,000 homes if 2.5 people per - can't all have 1/4 acre without sprawl. Sprawl is what gets us the STDs where people have to drive so damn much. We don't have that much land.

Yes, there are some double lots in the good part of Bend (close in westside), but those are a luxury. If we talk about what needs to be built in the future (although we won't need anything built in the next few years), we need to get used to higher density.

And no CCRs. Fuck CCRs.

timothy said...

>>Tim, First of ALL please post the atlantic-monthly story on BENDBB, and make sure CUNT doesn't delete it,

Actually, I forgot my password there and my browser ate my cookie, so it seemed like a good time to cut back on my blogging. All it would take to find my password would be to look through my daily computer journal I keep, but I know I'd be drawn in. I'll find it in a month when I have more time.

PopGoesBend said...

Yeh, we got it, its called NWXC, and its going to be tomorrows ghetto, already next to a high-school with 100's of latchkey kids, and rentals, A FUCKING GHETTO.

BUT that's your dream, and you got it, so go live there,


NWX isn't even close to what I am describing. It's not walkable to shopping - Riley's market doesn't cut it. I'm renting in NWX currently so I know it's not what I'm talking about. It is a higher end Std. This is the farthest away from a real grocery store I have lived in 17 years. Everyone drives everywhere and then pulls into their garage.


I previously lived on Bond St, Saginaw Ave, Federal St and Baltimore Ave. Those areas are walkable and liveable. Unfortunately the house I owned on Baltimore was not a small well designed house, but a small poorly designed house. I will hopefully end up back in that area when I purchase again.

Anonymous said...

Sprawl is what gets us the STDs where people have to drive so damn much. We don't have that much land.

*

BULL FUCKING SHIT YOU MUST BE A NEWBIE.

WHat got us the STD's is HOLLERN, et-al,

They took worthless fucking desert land and REHO's sold these fucking STD's to MORON's. You don't know your fucking BEND history, if you think that STD's happened; COVA/VCB/DVA MADE the population DOUBLE cuz of their ENDLESS PR&MARKETING, now they're all going to leave.

The MONEY was made on STD's cuz HOLLERN saw to it that SDC's were deferred forever, .. that was where the money was to be made, they already OWNED the worthless desert land.

STD's DON"T have a fucking thing to do with OLD BEND.

CALI's came here and ONLY look at PPSF, so they got it, they all bought 4,000 sqft mcMansions, cuz they only wanted BIG PPSF to go with the big boobs, big suvs, big dicks, and big mcMansions ( homes ), ... none of this was rational, and none of this had anything to do with OLD MILL OLD DOWNTOWN BEND.

Anonymous said...

Riley's market doesn't cut it. I'm renting in NWX currently so I know it's not what I'm talking about. It is a higher end Std.

*

Thanks, thats MY point, NWXC is just another fucking STD, but remember it was SOLD by HOLLERN back in 1998 as 'smart growth', textbook do a wiki, it was supposed to be the PERFECT uptopia, but what did we get?? Just another fucking STD.

Now with regards to marketing NWXC as quality, that was ALL fucking marketing, time will show that there is NOTHING special about NWXC other than all the money that HOLLERN spent on marketing, and note the premium price paid at NWXC is for marketing, and NOT quality.

Read the atlantic-monthly story, NWXC is a siberian-sub-division, and will be a fucking ghetto.

p.s. why in the FUCK are living out there when you could live a few blocks from Newport Market??

Anonymous said...

timtim, come back!!! Don't leave us with brucey-bruce!! Come back timtim! We need you!!

Look what I just dug up yesterday:

bruce said...
CC back to its tried and true way of doing business:

Executive Session pursuant to ORS 192.660 (2) (a through o)

March 2, 2008 7:55 AM
---------------------

And then, with my butt-plug-powered forward-in-time machine, I found this:

bruce said on April 12, 2012...
CC back to its tried and true way of doing business:

Executive Session pursuant to ORS 192.660 (2) (a through o)
-------------------

And then even farther into the future:

bruce said on August 13, 2023...
CC back to its tried and true way of doing business:

Executive Session pursuant to ORS 192.660 (2) (a through o)
===============

Maybe your Grandchildren can harrass brucey brucey into actually filing a complaint with Judy Stiegler's Grandchildren who will replace her on the Ethics Commission Board.

Nahhhh.... it'll never happen.

All talk.

Anonymous said...

Do the math - 70,000 people, or around 28,000 homes

*

Marge says there's 35k homes in Bend, I doubt this number, and certainly there ain't 70k people, maybe in peak tourist season. Note, wiki estimates of barely over 10k good jobs in this town.

Today dunc says there is 8k contractors, but most I know ran out of work two years ago, and most have left, ... All these 'contractors' are under-the-table, so nobody knows shit, all the realtors and mtg brokers also worked as contractors in their office, and paid for their space, ...

We got a REAL fucking numbers problem in this town, we don't know how many people, we don't know how many occupied homes, we don't know how many people work, or are retired, were told that tourists have spent $498M forever on a annual basis.

FUCK is full of fucking shit.

We have a REAL fucking numbers problem here, we know city-hall spends money they don't have, yet they keep spending more.

The value on my home I live in here in Bend on taxpayer assessment this year went from $305k to $399k, how pray tell in 2007 can property have gone up 25%?? This town is fucking bizarre. I couldn't have sold the fucking house last year for $250k, or this year for $220k.


I really think we have a real fucking numbers problem here, and reposting MLS numbers is a minor part of the total dis-information.

Marge said...

As I posted over a month ago:
There have been sooo many seller incentives or concessions the past several months, there is no way to tell what the Median or the PPF really is. Almost every deal I see has the seller paying 3% of the buyers closing costs or more. Additionally there is a State Law that doesn't allow RE folks to share that information with appraisers or the public. I know it's boggess!! The appraisers have appealed to Hardy Meyers to have this law changed. As Randy admitted in the article, they are keeping comps up for the neighborhood. Well that is SHIT. We all know it. There is NO good way to tell what the real sales price on a house is. I can't change it and neither can you. So, for now, we get what we got.

Anonymous said...

Nahhhh.... it'll never happen.

All talk.

*

Hey the other day bruce-pussy talked for a week that he was going to take pic's, and they after a week he went and did it, and Homer through him a bone.

Shit does happen in Bend, someday bruce-pussy just might file the complaint, after he moves back to Utah,

Marge said...

The 35k number includes all units including plexs and apartments. I know it seems high but there are alot of vacant houses now.

PopGoesBend said...

p.s. why in the FUCK are living out there when you could live a few blocks from Newport Market??

When I moved in December I had a week to find a rental. I put my house on the market a week before Thanksgiving, settled on a price Thanksgiving day, and closed on Dec 14th. I have toys (a crapton of bikes), a vespa and a 1977 Mini Cooper that all need to be garaged. Everything I looked at that was renting that week around Newport Market had either a falling down one car garage or no garage. I could have pushed out my closing date so I could have time to find a good rental, but I didn't want my buyer to have someone say "uh, do you really think it's a good time to buy?"

So here I am, in NWX, shaking my head at what a pain in the ass it is to go get a cucumber and tomatoes for dinner.

the shit is hitting the fan said...

: Spectacular blaze destroys Street of Dreams homes
WOODINVILLE, Wash. -

***
So, it looks like it won't be just gangs and dopeheads destroying the cookiecutter nightmare homes -- some other pissed off people will be lending a hand.

Watch out richy-riches out there in mega-shack land -- things are gonna get hot.

(By the way - they don't have big dicks, they have small ones -- that's why they compensate with big everything else.)

Anonymous said...

(By the way - they don't have big dicks, they have small ones -- that's why they compensate with big everything else.)

*

HELOC, DUDE HELOC, how in the hell do you think our 1,000 plastic-surgeons stay in BEND, I'll agree that they had small dick before the HELOC/SURGERY, but here in Bend the wife gets a boob/ass job, and hubby gets a penis pump, and they get a mcMansion, ...

It's BEND, every HELOC cali in Bend is big,

Anonymous said...

http://bp2.blogger.com/_oV8ecn5wrfg/R8uceSlMaLI/AAAAAAAAAZU/_4uFNJmuWG0/s1600-h/Q4+2007+Percent+Change.jpg

If you look at the chart above of the MOST recent OFHEO data, you'll see that from 2006 q3 Bend is already down -40% and falling like a rock,


Ah finding the truth, ...

http://portlandhousing.blogspot.com/2008/03/4th-quarter-hpi-from-ofheo.html

Anonymous said...

NWX, shaking my head at what a pain in the ass it is to go get a cucumber and tomatoes for dinner.

*

That's what I'm trying to tell you, yes I walk out the door and in a minute I got the cuke and a bottle Old-Rasputin ( Not Kuratek ),

1/2 acre lots, tree's fenced yard, NO CCR's, 2-4 car garage, off street parking 1100 sq-ft homes all with R30 insulation top,bottom, and sides, they're around, ... You just have to look, make sure there is off street parking, ... behind the fence, I got kayaks, canoes, dirt-bikes quads, jeeps, fire-wood, ... Got to have a big yard for the dogs, and got to have toys in Bend, Bend is about toys, bikes, skis, climbing equipment,

Yeh never get into a place with HOA's and/or CCR's, inner Bend around South of Newport is full of deals now around $250k, if you make a low-ball offer, and its going to go down even more, walk to downtown bars all summer, NO DUI biz, yeh there's no way in HELL anyone would want to live in the sub-burbs of Bend, might as well stayed in CALI.

All these calis that came here and bought these STD's are fucked, and the landlords renting them are fucked, even ten years ago it was hard to find a nice place, but now everything is going down, and even the good stuff.

In the old hoods you get ponderosas for shade in the summer, all that siberian STD shit, your in the fucking sun.

Anonymous said...

If you look at the chart above of the MOST recent OFHEO data, you'll see that from 2006 q3 Bend is already down -40% and falling like a rock,


Ah finding the truth, ...

http://portlandhousing.blogspot.com/2008/03/4th-quarter-hpi-from-ofheo.html

*

Bend has already fell from the 2006 highs down through the 2003 floor, we're now in un-charted water, the MOST toxic RE in the USA, and in the meantime MLS-RE in Bend fiddles about -3% median to date, ...


OFHEO HPI is real data, not some MLS data pulled out of the arse from some bloke from hard-buckle with an MBA.

Bend is Q3-07 70% over-valued STILL, and -40% under 2006 highs, and in the meantime all the players in Bend are still talking like its the best of times, and BEND RE only goes up, and that all will always make 25%/yr APR, forever, ...

There are liars, Damn Liars, and BEND LIARS, ... History will show that BEND not only drank their own kool-aid, but ate their own shit.

Anonymous said...

A better comparison might be Prescott-AZ, against Bend, OR, two desert Siberia's, that got over-sold, both were #1/2 for over value by cnnfn.com in 2005.

( Note prescott had the high q1-06, but bend q3-06 )

http://www.ofheo.gov/hpi_city.aspx

Year Quarter Bend, OR Prescott, AZ
2007 4 -2.84 -3.09
2007 3 0.28 -0.40
2007 2 3.52 3.52
2007 1 13.7 6.76
2006 4 21.8 11.6
2006 3 30.9 14.4
2006 2 36.0 20.1
2006 1 34.1 29.0
2005 4 30.0 31.6
2005 3 22.2 29.9
2005 2 17.0 29.3
2005 1 14.6 21.5
2004 4 11.1 16.9
2004 3 11.2 15.4
2004 2 9.28 11.1
2004 1 6.45 8.69
2003 4 7.72 7.21
2003 3 6.63 5.53
2003 2 6.21 6.29
2003 1 7.55 6.37
2002 4 7.91 6.91
2002 3 6.98 5.87
2002 2 7.61 4.84
2002 1 6.84 5.93
2001 4 7.96 5.63
2001 3 8.28 7.95
2001 2 7.98 8.22
2001 1 8.46 5.83
2000 4 6.76 5.58
2000 3 8.72 5.26
2000 2 7.93 4.48
2000 1 6.75 3.63

timothy said...

That OFHEO data doesn't show a 40% drop in prices. Prices dropped just a few perfect (so far). The big drop shown is in appreciation.

The obvious deficiency in the OFHEO prices is they only count conforming loans. But since Bend doesn't get the Case-Shiller treatment, OFHEO is the best we have.

Note that OFHEO and CS are both lagging indicators.

Anonymous said...

I like 0.15 acre lots. Anything bigger is too small to farm, and too large to mow. As a kid we had 3 acres and every Saturday I spent 5 hours mowing that damn thing.

I also like CC&Rs. I don't want to see your trash cans out by the street 7 days a week. I don't want to see your fishing boat sitting in front of your house 364 days a year. And I really hate 40 foot RV's that can hardly even fit on the driveway.

There's a reason that developers build tract homes and McMansions, with HOAs. People like 'em.

Anonymous said...

I see the Portland Bus. Journal takes note of CACB's 52-week low today.

Marge said...

Brucey..Love the pix on Jackdaw. Talk about Crispey Critters. The house at 2894 NE Jackdaw was listed in 09/06 for 455k..didn't sell..new RE person relisted 08/07 at 465k...price now 249k and is pending. Man that's a REAL BEND haircut..more to come..NO???

bruce said...

Re: a REAL BEND haircut...

I can't believe they asked $450K+ originally. These are true STD's. Reality is going to hit with a thud real soon.

Maybe if we gang up on the City Council, we can change things for the better.

I'm trying my hardest to get a press pass through Bend Weekly. These Exec Sessions are fucking us.

Marge said...

Bruce,
I apologize for being somewhat naive regarding the exec sessions. I have read a lot of your rants about these sessions. I wish I had the elbow rub contacts...But I am not Norma. I don't play with the big boyz as I hate them. Them that ruined our town. I will however, look into other ways, to enter. Fell free to send a PM.

By the by 249k is still too much.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I just saw a KTVZ piece calling Bend's city budget problems "serious".

They don't do THAT.

Seriously... I don't remember EVER hearing anything like that. And they actually came close to blaming it on the housing slowdown.

I think they blamed it on the "general economic slowdown", or something.

Can't find this piece online, but KTVZ admitting that there are serious budget problems (they are closing down a Tumalo firestation, if too many firefighters are sick, instead of incurring overtime), means serious shit has hit the fan.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

By the by 249k is still too much...

Yeah... I knew she was alright.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

WHOA! What the fuck?

I was just looking at the latest "Homes & Land" mag, and Cushman & Tebbs have 13 "pictured" agents across the bottom.

Last Month?

35

Damn, those MLS fees must be a nutcracker!

Fairwell to The Hot Devon Gidley.

Wow, if they actually lost those agents, that's a 2/3rds DROP.

That there is the Dark Matter Unemployment, that makes the economic outlook here SOOOO much worse than it appears.

bruce said...

Re: I apologize for being somewhat naive regarding the exec sessions.

Exec sessions are those held with only approved press watching. No public allowed. There are only a few defined reasons to allow them, they must be noticed just like regular meetings, and our CC has not followed the rules. Just as many other local government orgs have not.

But you can't plead ignorance of the law, especially when you have had the law publicly served up to you.

I've heard the bitching about filing complaints. I don't want to have to, I would rather things sorted themselves out.

But if complaints must be filed, they will be timely in regards to the fall elections.

I'll continue to piss into the wind all by myself at CC meetings, while castigating them online. It makes things public. So it's a start.

bruce said...

Re: I was just looking at the latest "Homes & Land" mag, and Cushman & Tebbs have 13 "pictured" agents across the bottom.

Last Month?

35
...



Paul, those are worth scanning for comparison.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And this "Homes & Land" has 40 pages, vs 60 for the previous edition, despite rising inventory. RE types are running out of cash.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And I guess everyone has heard that the Bend's unemployment rate spiked to 7.1% in January. Feb will be worse, probably... then things will moderate.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Paul, those are worth scanning for comparison.

I did, thoroughly.

Devon Gidley was definitely the hottest.

bruce said...

Re: they must be noticed just like regular meetings

This means the SPECIFIC subject.

Like an alley off Lava Court.

Not a broad listing of possible statutes that things might be discussed under. That's total bullshit.

If there is one thing I am trying to do, it's to bring such bullshit to an end.

Anonymous said...

But if complaints must be filed, they will be timely in regards to the fall elections.

*

Herr Bruce Pussy long before buster was a geo-physicist he was an astro-physicist, on the astronomical time scale, you have plenty of time to file that complaint against city hall, hell even in geological time, you have plenty of time, in fact I honestly think that in a millenium after the human race is extinct you'll have plenty of time to file the complaint, in summary herr bruce-pussy, don't rush, take your time, and enjoy.

bruce said...

Re: I did, thoroughly...the hottest

We await your Sunday rant ;)

Anonymous said...

Maybe if we gang up on the City Council, we can change things for the better.


*

Yes, why don't we just all gang-bang each other and solve our problems.

bruce said...

Re: Herr Bruce Pussy long before buster was a geo-physicist he was an astro-physicist, on the astronomical time scale, you have plenty of time to file that complaint against city hall, hell even in geological time, you have plenty of time, in fact I honestly think that in a millenium after the human race is extinct you'll have plenty of time to file the complaint, in summary herr bruce-pussy, don't rush, take your time, and enjoy.



Your Astroglide is wearing out.

Take the time to read the actual law and procedure, and your ass won't be so dry while you whine.

Do it yourself, help me do it, or shut the fuck up. You're pathetic.

Anonymous said...

I also like CC&Rs. I don't want to see your trash cans out by the street 7 days a week. I don't want to see your fishing boat sitting in front of your house 364 days a year. And I really hate 40 foot RV's that can hardly even fit on the dri

*

Then GO live in HOLLERN-VILLE cunt and have your CC&R's and have people telling you that you can't have garbage can's, and that you can't have cars more than 2 years old in your street.

Anonymous said...

I agree, I have been in towns like Bend that have no CC&R's, and people have dogs and cats. People have old cars in their drive way.

People are ugly.

Bend is a beautiful place, of beautiful people, and all must be sanitized with CC&R's.

Hollern is like a god to those of us from California.

Anonymous said...

Herr Bruce-Pussy, your astro-glide is wearing out,

*

Fear not young bruce-pussy, this is why KY-Jelly was invented, you lube up and your good for another 100 Bend Miles.

If your going to Suck Russell cock, and take in the ass from Bend's finest, then you need the finest lube.

Your our only hope bruce-pussy, and you need protection.

bruce said...

Re: Yes, why don't we just all gang-bang each other and solve our problems.

The Council allows "visitors" to speak to them at the beginning of the session. That is their form of taking public input.

If several of us speak on different things that are costing the city money, like JR, the consultants for 3rd St., and the Reed Market upgrade, it might reach the public. Or even better, it might sway a few of the Council into deferring expenses, into saving as much money as possible to get through the next 24 months. It might make them aware that people are REALLY paying attention.

Of course, you can just sit at home behind your keyboard and jack off to Britney. Your choice.

We all no what's easiest...

timothy said...

http://www.bendluxuryhomes.com/about_agents.htm

37 of them on the website. Don't know how often they update that, though.

Anonymous said...

If there is one thing I am trying to do, it's to bring such bullshit to an end.

*

Amen, Brother bruce-pussy, even joseph smith was lynched, hell Brigham Young was fried, but the uncircumcised walk gently, speak gently, but in Bend carry a big artificial cock.

bruce said...

Re: Fear not young bruce-pussy, this is why KY-Jelly was invented

You are obviously young. KY preceded Astro by decades. But that is to digress. You obviously know the taste of Russell cock far better than I ever will. At least judging from his response to me at the last CC meeting.

But then, you weren't there, were you? You haven't gotten off your ass in a long time, have you?

You should try it sometime. It feels good to walk on two legs.

Anonymous said...

We await your Sunday rant ;)

*

Let's predict, ...

"Drop your price"

Did I miss anything?

Anonymous said...

Bruce Pussy, your the cunt that tried to suck up to Russell Cock, and got bitch slapped, and told us how insulted you were, because he didn't respect you.

Money talks, and BULLSHIT walks in Bend, and BP ( Bruce Pussy ) your a 100% Bullshit.

Perhaps you if you laid down real money, and subsidized re-election of Bend, perhaps if you helped pay Russell's retirement fund, then they would treat you with respect??

In the meantime, they'll treat you like a gadfly cunt that your are.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

the uncircumcised walk gently, speak gently, but in Bend carry a big artificial cock.

Man, you are one weird, offensive, crazy... yet strangely entertaining motherfucker.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

"Drop your price"

Can I borrow that?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Of course, you can just sit at home behind your keyboard and jack off to Britney. Your choice.

What was the other choice?

Marge said...

35 C an T's still listed as licensee's
MLS dues are only $45 a month, that's like 10 days lunch at Taco Stand.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And I guess everyone has heard that the Bend's unemployment rate spiked to 7.1% in January. Feb will be worse, probably... then things will moderate.

Oooops. Unemployment was 7.6% in Jan. Up 1.5%.

Compare to 5.5% in Jan 2007.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

35 C an T's still listed as licensee's

Hmmm... wonder why they dropped all their pictures?

Anonymous said...

Of course, you can just sit at home behind your keyboard and jack off to Britney. Your choice.

What was the other choice?

->

For a long time I thought that bruce pussy.org was it, but now I'm convinced that there are other sites, please homer tell us what else is there besides bruce pussy.org ??

Anonymous said...

35 C an T's still listed as licensee's
MLS dues are only $45 a month, that's like 10 days lunch at Taco Stand.

*

I'm at taco-shack everyday, tell me more about the 35C's

Marge said...

Real Life Bend Housing Bubble Stories. A chronicle beginning now. Stories about those that sank themselves in Bend.
Rant begins> Old client calls today, in hopes of helping a friend out of a tough times.
He says they bought a few years ago, owe 308k on a NE STD built in 98. They paid 132k and hocked it, over the years, for 308k. He wants to help by paying the mort. til it sells(really nice guy). I comp it at 250k max and he says "will it take 9 months to sell?" I say...in 9 months it will sell for 220k. Stop the MADNESS....do "Jingle Mail"
Well, er I go again, another house I can't try to sell by saying what is real. Damn.
Taco Stand was good today.

Anonymous said...

Stop the MADNESS....do "Jingle Mail"

*

I imagine there are a lot of people, what's interesting is 1998, that's a typical price for a new house at that time.

I' quite surprised someone would have HELOC'd out all the cash, that's so CALI.

Well I guess you realtors do have a lot of work convincing these people that they're home is worth close to what they paid in 1998.

So what do you do run? Ah, jingle-mail, or like today "youwalkaway.com', just send in the keys, and let someone else deal with it, I hope that there are assets that people used with this money... to sell ...

So are you going to tell us soon, that there are even 1992 people that have taken out all the equity??

timothy said...

>>>>the uncircumcised walk gently, speak gently, but in Bend carry a big artificial cock.

>>Man, you are one weird, offensive, crazy... yet strangely entertaining motherfucker.

I like to think of this as the Naked Lunch of Bend blogs.

Marge said...

"So are you going to tell us soon, that there are even 1992 people that have taken out all the equity??"

R U Kidding?

Unless they are at least 65 age wise(they remember the 1st Depression)they also HELOCED themsleves to their death in equity. It just keeps coming up with the Ole ATM attitude. Guess it's time beddy. For now G night.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I like to think of this as the Naked Lunch of Bend blogs.

I think of it as a baked bunch of Bend frogs.

Mmmm... frogs.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I love the KTVZ piece about the Tumalo firestation closing. We've got City Councilor Telfer telling us this is ALL CITY COUNCIL'S FAULT... but no one is resigning in shame, as they should.

These fuckers admit complete failure at their jobs, but are embrazened enough to flip Bendites the finger anyway.

Their only fuckin job is to forecast & plan, and they have failed miserably on both counts.

Now the shit has splattered on the fan & it's hitting everyone in sight, and those fucknuts do not give a fuck, and just want to keep their little position of power.

Fuckers. Tumalo homes will BURN cuz of those misappropriating motherfuckers. They are going to start laying off firefighters.

Nice. Cruel irony that the homes these pro-growth motherfuckers were willing to do anything to get built, will now fuckin BURN cuz of these dumbfucks.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

What? Nothing from Bilbo on Oregon spending more per capita than any other state on prisons?

Local look: One in 100 Americans locked up


Deschutes County Corrections Division Capt. Ruth Jenkin said Friday the new study finding one in 100 Americans are behind bars is "alarming. It's a large number, as far as I'm concerned."

And it's costing the state of Oregon more than $1 billion annually.

"About 9 percent of the state General Fund is directed towards corrections spending," explained Max Williams, director of Oregon's Department of Corrections.

At the Deschutes County Jail, the cost to house an inmate for one day is a little over $90. Statewide, the cost is about $78 a day and just under $30,000 a year to keep an inmate incarcerated in Oregon.

It all adds up to more than what the state's spending on higher education, according to the Pew Center.

"It would be nice if we spent more money on education," Jenkin said. "In my opinion, I think the more things we can do preventively to keep people out of jail would be great."

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

MARKETWATCH FIRST TAKE
Is Citi to be trusted?

Commentary: Dubai investors undermine CEO Pandit
By MarketWatch


10:28am 03/04/2008

The Citi run by Vikram Pandit has raised $12.5 billion from sovereign funds and more from a public offering. At Pandit's Citi the infusion "not only positions us well against our [books] and the economy, but also creates significant flexibility to serve our clients and to take advantage of market opportunities that can be very beneficial to our franchise," Pandit said Jan. 15.
The Citi seen by outsiders, including some of its strongest financial backers, is one teetering on the edge. That Citi will need more cash to shore up its balance sheet, according to comments attributed to Sameer Al Ansari, Chief Executive of Dubai International Capital by Dow Jones. See full story.
Today, at least, investors have sided with Ansari by sending Citigroup stock down 4% to a 52-week low of $22.07 in the morning session.
Also pressuring Citi is a note from Merrill Lynch cutting profit estimates for 2008, citing expectations that Citi will have to take more write-downs as the credit markets continue to deteriorate.
Investors aren't just going on Ansari's word. They've seen the numbers. At the end of the most recent quarter, Citi had $37 billion in exposure to special investment vehicles, $43 billion in exposure to leveraged loans and $20 billion in commercial real estate loans. The environment for those assets has not improved in recent weeks.
Perhaps in response to the latest confidence crisis at Citi, Pandit said he would meet with analysts and investors on May 8. Perhaps by then the real Citi will reveal itself.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

$9.93/sh

Fresh new lows on CACB.

Patty Moss should be fired "Kitty Cannon" style out of Cascade's next board meeting...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Gulf investors may not save Citigroup, Dubai executive says

By Mirna Sleiman
Last update: 6:20 a.m. EST March 4, 2008

DUBAI (Zawya Dow Jones) -- Mideast sovereign wealth funds may fail to save troubled U.S. banking giant Citigroup Inc. unless more cash is pumped into the lender, the head of a $13 billion Dubai-owned investment firm said Tuesday.

Sameer Al Ansari, Chief Executive of Dubai International Capital told delegates at a private equity conference that it will take more than the combined efforts of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the Kuwait Investment Authority and Saudi investor Prince Alwaleed bin Talal to save the bank.
"It's going to take more than that to rescue Citi," Ansari said. He added that more write downs are expected and that Gulf investors would be required to bolster Citi.

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, or ADIA, a sovereign wealth fund owned by the world's fourth-largest oil exporter, last year bought a 4.9% stake in Citigroup.

The Kuwait Investment Authority also said in January it would invest $3 billion in Citigroup.

Al Ansari said "it would take a lot more money to rescue Citigroup." A spokesperson for Citi was unable to comment immediately when called Tuesday.

Dubai International Capital, an investment firm controlled by Dubai's ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum, owns a stake in HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBA.LN), bought 3.12% in European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co last year.
The company also owns a stake in Standard Chartered PLC (STAN.LN), according to Zawya Investor.

The intervention of sovereign funds such as ADIA, which pumped $7.6 billion into Citi, has failed to stem a decline in the bank's share price that was first triggered by the emergence last year of an $11 billion sub-prime write-down that led to the resignation of the then embattled chief executive Charles 'Chuck' Prince.

Citi's share price has fallen by more than 33% since late November, when the ADIA stake purchase was first reported, till date to close at $23.09 Tuesday.
The bank said in January that it lost $9.83 billion in the fourth quarter spurred by $18 billion in write-downs.

To stem the losses Citi said it planned to raise $14.5 billion in capital by selling stakes to investors including Saudi's Prince Alwaleed, the lenders largest single shareholder.

Since coming out in support of former chief executive Prince prior to his resignation billionaire Alwaleed has commented little on Citi's current travails.

A spokesperson for Prince Alwaleed's office didn't answer calls on Tuesday.

Middle East sovereign funds flush with cash from record oil earnings are looked upon as possible saviors for many international lenders reeling from continued U.S. sub-prime losses.
Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem Al Thani, chief executive of the Qatar Investment Authority, QIA, told Zawya Dow Jones in January that the emirate's sovereign wealth fund planned to invest up to $15 billion buying stakes in up to 12 blue-chip U.S. and European banks.

The Qatari fund said last month that it had built a significant stake in Credit Suisse Group.

The Swiss lender later said it had incurred a $2.85 billion hit from bad trading.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

BAM!

Even rock solid bubble play Google has hit 52 week lows today!

Once flying high at $747/sh... it's fallen to a pathetic $440.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Man, we are taking these Arabs to the cleaners. They are pissing away BILLIONS UPON BILLIONS in the World's Economic Has Been.

And the beat goes on....

Arabs fund US money center banks, that pay BILLIONS in US taxes, that go to Israel to bomb Arabs.

We might not be much, be we are one hell of a middleman!

Anonymous said...

What? Nothing from Bilbo on Oregon spending more per capita than any other state on prisons?

*

What needs to be said, I have been harping on this forever, second biggest BIZ in the US after Military. SO the fucking point?

I only ask one fucking question, why is it a story now?? We'll for one, this is the first time in history a nation has had more than 1% of its citizens locked in cages.

But then so fucking what the USA is a prison colony,

WRT to cost in OREGON, well we're more corrupt than average, and we have good PERS and good benefits for our people who work our jails and prisons.

Remember "The essence of government is beating, killing, and imprisoning" - VonMises

USA is #1, Bend is #1, back to Bend.

My rule-of-thumb, is that one everyone else is on a subject, its time to move-on.

Why bring up prisons now? Perhaps its to shift them out of 'Garzini Hotels' and into 'camps', the camps are awaiting, and it would be cheaper, JR would be a great internment camp, and retreading tires would be frosting on the cake for LS.

Anonymous said...

"So are you going to tell us soon, that there are even 1992 people that have taken out all the equity??"

R U Kidding?

Unless they are at least 65 age wise(they remember the 1st Depression)they also HELOCED themsleves to their death

*

Is this really true? Most people I know don't do this, and certainly almost all of my propertys are paid off. I ask this question to you as a realtor.

If this is true what your saying that the majority under 64 have tapped out their HELOC, that means that the majority are under water.

I have always assumed that 1/2 are under-water based on the fact that 1/2 the homes have flipped since 2002, and we're going under 2002 pricing, and toss in zero-down, ... interest-only loans.

You seem to feel that even folks that bought in the 90's or 80's or even earlier are all HELOC'd out, is this just a REALTOR view of the world or is this reality?? My reality is that most people own their homes in my neighborhood.

I do know when I have sold homes, and the realtors ask "How much I owe, and I say NUTTIN", they're always shocked, but I just assume that its NORMAL RE ass-kissing, is it really that fucking rare in your biz, to see homes with a ton of equity??

If your even partially correct, then this answers MY continual DEMAND to HOMER, "LOWER YOUR PRICE".

They can't lower the price, cuz they already OWE what they're ASKING.

Anonymous said...

Man, we are taking these Arabs to the cleaners. They are pissing away BILLIONS UPON BILLIONS in the World's Economic Has Been.


*

DIVERSIFY HOMER, most likely citi will BK, but if the ARABS diversify, and they will, when all this clears, they'll hold some awesome assets, and it only takes a few of these penny's on the dollar deals to make them look like geniuses in 10 years,

Anonymous said...

I don't expect much from bruce-pussy, but if&when someone or his ilk are at city-hall wednesday meetings, and I can't make this one, ...

The continual issue is priority, we have to prioritize our spending,

Public Safety FIRST ( fire, ... ) and last is COVA/VCV, consultants, fire, ...

It goes back to the city-manager, thats where the pressure needs to be placed, maybe thats why we don't have one, so nobody gets blamed, ... interim, pick on the interim, but somebody GOOD-OLD-BOYZ somebody in this town needs to prioritize the CHARTER ( all oregon city's run on a charter ), and somebody needs to make sure that our charter has a priority that is NOT PR&MARKETING, or sucking Les-Schwab dick, or Hollern-Hooverville creation, ...

Marge said...

"If your even partially correct, then this answers MY continual DEMAND to HOMER, "LOWER YOUR PRICE".

They can't lower the price, cuz they already OWE what they're ASKING."

Not being able to lower the price IS the problem. If they have to sell for some reason like, job transfer, divorce or out of money and they are like a huge number of folks in Bend, They are screwed.
I know a lot of people here that were smart enough not to use the ATM. Most of them are retired or close to it and are here for the long haul.

Anonymous said...

know a lot of people here that were smart enough not to use the ATM. Most of them are retired or close to it and are here for the long haul.

*

You just defined me & my neighbors, but sadly all my yuppie friends up at BROKEN-TOP, or WIDGI that came here and 'retired' came here and bought BIG, counting on their HOME to be their retirement 'income', and of course their having to go into savings to be 'retired'. Its not happening.

I think that yes, there are people like me & you, long haul, no atm-heloc card, then there are these 'retirees' in their 50's that only retired because they believed that if they bought a $1M home @ BT it would be $2M, .. $4M, ... that they could be retired, just on the 25% APR forever, BEND.

Now of course they're NOT really under water, as most paid cash, but they all retired with $2M cali sale or stock ( apple, .. google, ... ) and now 1/2 the $1M is gone from the sale, and the other 1/2 of the $1M paid for the crap-shack is gone, cuz BT is down, and NOT coming back. Now these people MARGE do you see as many as me??

Thus I see three kinds ..

1.) Settled non-flip, long term, non-heloc 'retired', or just living cheap at cheap job, ... OLD BEND.

2.) Yuppy your retiree came here to bike & ski, and now NO cash, NO 401k, and they the RE home piggy bank no there if they wanted it, option? They ALL have to go back to work, problem? There is NO jobs in Bend.

3.) The SUV cali flipper with penis pump, max'd out on HELOC back in 2005, and under-water from the day he/she moved to bend.

Is there another animal I'm not aware of??

FYI, most of my 'friends' are #2, given that I ski/bike most of my time, this is who I hang with, most of my neighbors are #1, virtually everyone I have met FOREVER @ deschutes or any pub in town is #3.

Most realtors I know are #3, and most builders I know are #3.

Marge said...

"Is there another animal I'm not aware of??"

Me thinks you have pretty well covered it. #2 and #3 will do the Jingle Mail" dance.

New type of Scum (or Scam)Bags in town. Prodigy One Investments. They are working with some REWhore in Redmond and contacting the NOD's and short salers to help them iron out their RE problems.
They are telling folks they will buy the house and do all the leg work with the lender, get any debt forgiven WTF? and the owner/renter just get to dance on out.
Help me..there has to be a catch and a real upside for these dopes.
Dopes are Duped.
There is always someone promising the pot of Gold to Dopes.
The group is also looking for investors :~)

Anonymous said...

Did you know Bend has a counterpart in Maryland?


The Herald Mail from Maryland. “If you’ve been trying to sell your house, the economic signs are pretty clear: You’re in a lot of pain. Especially if your home is in the upper end of the market, pricewise.”

“And if you’ve bought a house in Washington County the last few years, you’re probably hurting, too, as more of your income than ever is being used to pay the mortgage.”

“‘Soon as the gas prices went up to $3 a gallon, it’s like a wall went up on South Mountain and people stopped coming over the hill,’ said local Realtor Jeff Matthews, last year’s president of the Pen-Mar Regional Association of Realtors.”

“When that traffic went away, only those of us who live and work here were left in the local housing market. And for the most part, we ‘can’t afford a half-million-dollar house,’ Matthews said. So the median price of what homes sold, fell.”

“When the lemmings from the metro areas were running this way to buy houses, so, too, were big metro builders. Now that that crowd has gone away, what’s left is ‘more new houses than there are workers,’ NAR economist Ken Fears said.”

“NAR looks exclusively at the sales of existing homes. Its data does not look at sales of new houses. If it did, the drop in price here might be more severe. ‘They’re trying to get rid of them,’ Matthews said of the bigger builders’ houses. ‘They’re giving away all these (house feature) options.’”

“‘It’s hard for someone who bought a house, let’s say in a new subdivision, and now they’re being relocated or must sell because of circumstances,’ he said. ‘It’s hard to compete with these new house builders who are giving away things.’”

“Fears said, ‘just looking at the numbers, it looks like kind of an overhang in supply.’ That overhang, coupled with the slowdown in sales, is most noticeable in the backlog of houses waiting to be sold. You can drive on almost any street and count the number of ‘For Sale’ signs.”

“Not only new houses, but also, of course, older ones whose owners have found work elsewhere or who want to buy another, as well as those being auctioned by banks that have foreclosed.”

“In January, the latest month for which figures are available, Realtors had a total of 1,353 houses listed for sale in Washington County, according to MRIS. Of those, just 76 were sold during the month, MRIS said.”

“If sales continued at that rate and even ‘if we didn’t list another house, it would take almost two years to sell it all off,’ said Matthews.”

bruce said...

Sheesh, there isn't a single newspaper in this town that doesn't suck up to the Council. From Bend Weekly before the last election:

Nov 05, 2006
City Council Race or Mud Match?
by Richard Burton, Publisher

Unless you’re one of the eighteen wheels on a diesel truck, you won’t come prepared with your giant mud flap. Get your rain slicker and that old pair of rubber boots, they’ll come in handy as the mud continues to fly into the last few days of the campaign for two of the three Bend City Council seats up for grabs.

Derek Stevens and Mark Capell are both running for the Council Position 5 seat being vacated by City Councilor Dave Malkin. Clint Chick and Wyvetta Wilson are running against Mayor Bill Friedman for Council Position 6 seat. Chris Telfer is the only uncontested candidate, running for the Council Position 7 seat.

Mud comes in many varieties. We’re all familiar with muddy water, thick mud and the worst kind, sludge, otherwise known as sewer water. Most politicians are highly skilled at splattering muddy water and even thick mud if they’re wearing their rubber boots, but Clint Chick should go out for Olympian style sludge tossing, if there were such a sport. He might win this type of competition. We all know what’s in sewer water.

Chick was dealt some heavy criticism from the Freidman camp when he accepted $20,000 in campaign contributions from political action committees associated with the Central Oregon Builder’s Association (COBA). Chick is Director of the COBA. And Chick has the gall to scrutinize Friedman’s business partnership with fellow councilor, Linda Johnson? The two council members are joint owners of Cascade Bookkeeping, Inc. A portion of Cascade Bookkeeping manages homeowners associations in Central Oregon and Chick sees this as a conflict of interest. Clearly, the candidate is desperately reaching for something. Anything to get the focus off of the real conflict of interest here, a director of a building association, who is privy to votes regarding future campaign contributions. According to Chick, he didn’t vote on those issues. Before becoming business partners, Friedman and Johnson spoke to legal advisors and peers. “We talked with city staff, with city councilors, with business people, with people in the media," Friedman said. "All of whom indicated in their opinions that it was both a smart business move and a non-starter issue as far as a conflict of interest is concerned.”

It seems Chick likes to twist real issues and make issues out of non-issues or dwell on the past instead of planning and looking to the future. Like an ex-spouse, Chick refuses to talk about the issue at hand, bringing up mishandled Juniper Ridge, droning on and on about the mishandled negotiations and now questions the need for a four-year university. Juniper Ridge is coming. It’s the future of Bend. Talking about closed door meetings and what the council should have done or could have done is a mammoth waste of time. Where is this man’s vision? We need someone who can see Bend thirty years from now, who will fight for our grandchildren’s future. We need this university. We don’t need a leader who will sit back moaning about the past, what ifs and could have beens when we have an experienced man like Bill Friedman. Friedman has admitted to the fact that Juniper Ridge could have been handled better, but there was a Memorandum of Understanding made public and now we need someone who can lead us into the building phase and deliver through, someone who is familiar with the vision for Juniper Ridge.

Chick is far too under qualified, lacking the real city leadership that Friedman can and does provide to the Bend City Council. His experience in the oil and gas industry, as an insurance underwriter and financial advisor just doesn’t cut it for a seat on the Bend City Council. Mayor Friedman has been in office for four years and served nine years on the Bend City Council. He has been responsible for Farewell Bend Park, Bill Healy Memorial Bridge and developing roundabouts on the west side of Bend.

One of Chick’s favorite words when tossing sludge Friedman’s way is “micromanage”. Once again, Chick is terribly ill informed or perhaps, just embarrassing. To accuse Friedman of micromanaging is ludicrous. To say this is a show of disrespect to the other council members. So, Chick thinks the rest of the Council is a sack of puppets? If Friedman were a micromanager, the rest of the Bend City Council would have wanted him gone long ago. Fellow councilors; Bruce Abernethy, Jim Clinton, John Hummel and Linda Johnson backed Mayor Friedman in a joint statement, describing him as "a voice of reason, vision, passion and creativity on the council."

Throwing sludge is what Chick does best. He has even found a way to blame Bend’s phenomenal supernova like growth on Friedman, when Oregon law is responsible for the Urban Growth Boundary, which once established will also help with affordable housing, another one of Chick’s gripes. It’s easy to throw all the sludge on one man, when many, many factors come into play, but Chick’s mind doesn’t seem capable of grasping this concept. Anything to skirt around the real issue here, a truck load of campaign dollars dumped into Chick’s campground. He’s proud of this mountain of money, though he’s the Director of COBA, but remember, he didn’t vote on campaign contributions. He even said, “I’m not ashamed of any donations I took! They have bought into my agenda. I have not bought into theirs.” Not a smart comment, but Chick seems to have “foot in mouth” disease lately. So, the COBA or their political action committees, make no mistake, it’s coming from the same people, are they are a bunch of fools, too? They bought into Chick’s agenda, but he hasn’t bought into theirs? He said it, folks. He didn’t buy into theirs. Well, maybe they should take the money back then. What is Clint Chick’s agenda, except to throw sludge at well-respected members of the Bend City Council, reaching, reaching and then, finally grabbing some sludge instead?

Chick has also criticized Friedman, blaming him personally for not hiring enough police officers and instead, hiring a consultant for $70,000. Clearly this man has no idea how city government is run. Bill Friedman cannot put an ad in the newspaper and just hire a police officer himself. The Mayor defended himself by saying, “As you know, the department heads, including the police department, the fire department, public works, and all others, make requests, to the City Manager for staffing and funding. The City manager, in turn, makes an overall recommendation to the 14-member city budget committee. For each of the past two years, the city manager has recommended five additional police positions, as well as small additions in other departments. The budget committee reviewed and accepted those recommendations. I know the fire department would like additional EMTs; public works would like additional employees for road maintenance, sweeping and snow removal, and the police department for additional officers. But, all this must be done within the available funding and with the knowledge that it must be funded every year into the future. I am trusting the city staff, the City manager, the budget committee and the Council to complete each year's budget process in a responsible manner and within the resources of the city." He also defended himself well simply by explaining the workings of government to clueless Chick by saying,

"The Juniper Ridge consultant, approved by the entire Council, is paid for by the Master Developer and the sale of property in Juniper Ridge. None of the expense comes from city taxpayers. And, of course, the consultant is critical to the process of developing a plan for a major university presence in Bend. A presence that I see as critical to the future of our city." We really need this university in Juniper Ridge so Chick can enroll for government and business classes.

Bend residents are far too intelligent to vote for Clint Chick and most will certainly be put off by his lack of experience and knowledge in city government alone, not to mention his shady, unethical, sludgy campaign practices. Friedman said it best when he said, “My belief is that the voters in the city of Bend could see through that kind of campaign very easily and would be offended by it.” Even with a heavy coat of sludge, the message is crystal clear. Chick’s agenda is not an agenda with Bend’s best interests at heart. We need a strong leader with vision and that person is Bill Friedman.

It’s easy to lose sight of Wyvetta Wilson, the other candidate running for the Seat 6 Position. A clear minded woman with enough vision and more experience than Chick, but not a strong enough leader for Bend. Wilson said when asked about the race, “If I don’t win, so what. It will be fun.” This isn’t a game. These are real people running for an important seat on the Bend City Council, a seat that can and will effect the lives of thousands of Bend residents. Wilson takes the role a tad too lightly, but at least she’s willing to help clear out the mud slinging with her chants of “Keep it clean, please,” at the last debate.

Mark Capell has been slinging some pretty thick mud towards Derek Stevens in the race for Position 5 seat. "I have a concern about the judgment of my opponent, who on a Net chat room sexually harassed a young lady, then dismissed it as ‘fluff' to The Bulletin," Capell said. Fluff or not, do we really want someone sitting in on city meetings who may be daydreaming instead about an online conversation when he should be making important decisions about Bend’s future? Capell brought up a valid point and also shares a strong vision for Juniper Ridge where Stevens wants to rehash old issues and has strong doubts about a university in Bend. Bend is growing by leaps and bounds. We need strong leaders that will fight for the future of our children, making the university a reality. We don’t need doubtful council members like Stevens on board.

The uncontested candidate, Chris Telfer is clean for the time being. Rarely does mud land on her. Telfer is a strong leader, but often thought of as the minority in the council. "That is what I bring to council," Telfer said. "That is what is important, all the perspectives represented so the final decision is better thought out, a better representation of all of the citizens of Bend.” Though she is said to be polarizing to the Council to some degree, it is Tefler’s clear and honest opinions that oftentimes reflect the opinions and needs of the citizens of Bend. She is a good balance and another supporter of Juniper Ridge, which will bring an influx of dollars and jobs to Bend.

Bend is a rapidly growing city. We need strong leaders to carry us into 2007, to finish Juniper Ridge, increase affordable housing and make smart decisions that will effect thousands of good citizens. When you cast your ballot on November 7, project your mind into the future and make the best decision for Bend, for our children, for our future and hopefully by November 8, the mud will dry up.


Source: http://www.bendweekly.com/Opinion/Editorials/1175.html


Our choice, an HOA manager or the director of the builder's association. And we wonder why things are so fucked up.

Anonymous said...

It is entirely appropriate that the Bend real estate market should fall off of a cliff. Like they say, the acorn doesn't fall far from the tree, and since Bend is effectively an outpost of California, it becomes obvious! :)

Anonymous said...

Blogger bruce said...

Sheesh, there isn't a single newspaper in this town that doesn't suck up to the Council. From Bend Weekly before the last election:

Nov 05, 2006
City Council Race or Mud Match?
by Richard Burton, Publisher

*

Bruce-Pussy, that old post from Nov 2006, has only been posted here about a dozen times in the last year, can't you at the very least find some new material to re-post???

I know you just showed up three months ago, and that your new, but you really need to focus on the future and not the past.

Anonymous said...

3.) small lots suck, no place to park the RV, boat, and toyz suck, no reason to live here if you don't have lots of off-street storage

Who can afford to drive an RV at $4 per gallon? I'll never own one of those hulking monstrosities.

And don't you know the 2 best days of boat ownership? The day you buy and the day you sell.

The only toys I need are a couple bikes and snowboards. They all fit in a corner of the garage.

Anonymous said...

Prodigy One Investments. They are working with some REWhore in Redmond and contacting the NOD's and short salers to help them iron out their RE problems.

*

So what is the scam? All I can think is that they want a FEE and do nothing, or their skimming for that 1 in 10 home, where there is real equity that can be nabbed. Given that most NOD's are under-water, ... That said there must be a LOT of stupid-fucking investors out-of-state that would give good money to a pool, and if the 'firm' were a REwhore-house that could be a good way to clear inventory, and saddle it on the investors, ... then the house gets a commission, and the everyone wins.

The WHOLE deal right now is to UNLOAD and quick, cuz if your hold BEND RE next year, then your really going to be FUCKED.

Yes, Jingle-Mail makes sense, but that window is going to get shut by law, basically criminalizing such action, that's why you see the high-end people actually walking more than the low-end.

Go to a lawyer, best advice they can give you is quit paying payments, and wait out the two years until eviction by the County-Sheriff. Its the smart people I think that are doing this more than the poor, the poor are actually the ones that will get stuck with the keys.

The big time players that didn't sell last year or this year, will have all walked by spring of 2009.

Then we'll be seeing -80% STD auctions going with no buyers, just like Atlanta, GA last year.

bruce said...

Re: The continual issue is priority, we have to prioritize our spending,

Public Safety FIRST ( fire, ... ) and last is COVA/VCV, consultants, fire, ...


So is fire first or last?

Seeing as how we had a carjacking at the CostCo lot not too long ago, about four blocks from the main police station, I can see how a strong argument can be made for police over consultants.

Duncan McGeary said...

No comments on the town hall show about real estate?

I only caught the last ten minutes, but it looked pretty much like what you would expect to hear from a room full of real estate people.

I think anything the slightest negative was quickly followed up by a yet, but answer. With a seasoning of moderation to lend an air of credibility.

Looked like a waste of time.

bruce said...

Re: No comments on the town hall show about real estate?

Must have been on BendBroadband, which many of us don't use.

Was there cheering?

What I'm really waiting for is what the positive spin of sales being 110 in August is going to look like.

timothy said...

At this point, the Realtors are just talking to each other.

Anonymous said...

So is fire first or last?


Yes, BOTH, its PUBLIC SAFETY, ... Begin and End.

But in Bend, all taxpayer revenue is considered PR&MARKETING fodder to keep fighting the good war,

USA might be military & prison, but BEND the CORP-WELFARE is PR&MARKETING.

Anonymous said...

At this point, the Realtors are just talking to each other.



*

Marge is this true? Or are they trying to fuck each other for a deal, lets see 50 closings, and 2,000 realtors, that means 1 in 40 went to bed with food in their tummy, how far are we away from cannibalism?

How long will the BULL be silent on the subject of Bend Realtors eating one another??

There's nothing to talk about anymore, the ones I know were working 4X, and 1/4 last year this time, now ... well its like Marge said the other day, its now time for welfare and food stamps.

Marge said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Marge said...

Please remember that there are NOT 2000 Realtors...it's more like 1500the rest are appraisers and licensed office people on salary. As well, the 1500, are representative of all areas coverd by COAR, including John Day and many other outskirts..not just Bend. I don't have the total sales for all areas covered at this moment, but I posted it a week or so ago. 50 deals are not feeding 2000. Hang on ..I will look it up..you dog. It is still slim though. OK..got it. 195 sales for 66+mil in volume in Feb.. Hey it's better than 50! Might still need food stamps as we can't get unemployment unless you work 11 months at a job that pays into the fund.
Any other questions?
I didn't hear about the COTV thing. Was it good? :)

do the math said...

It goes back to the city-manager, thats where the pressure needs to be placed ... somebody in this town needs to prioritize the CHARTER ...
***

Who who who ... has the balls?

What percent in Bend are drunk on koolaid?

What percent don't give a shit?

How many does that leave?

Anonymous said...

What percent in Bend are drunk on koolaid?

What percent don't give a shit?

*

It's all ON OUR bruce-pussy, he is our super-man, but then bruce-pussy depends on the cave-dwarve wives,

Well lets call it, Bend is fucked.


Who really gives a FUCK, I mean I demanded this over a year ago, that nobody intended to even stick around.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

you really need to focus on the future and not the past.

Don't listen to him, Brucey...

Kodos: “We must go forward, not backward, upward, not forward, and always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom.”

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

buster: Marge is this true?

Damn Buster, you're sounding a little smitten with our Marge. How nice.

Remember Marge, he called you "ms fucker", or some such. Make him beg. Get him back for the rest of us....

Marge said...

Buster, You must have a square penis as you are not fitting in.

Marge said...

So Brucey,
Here is a new one on me. I am helping to sell a home in Bend, the title report has a City of Bend lien for the damn water meter on it. It was installed in 2003 and the owner, instead of paying up front, he took the City loan for 10 years. So 5 years into the City loan, for $700. $380 is still owed. Now the buyer wants the seller to payoff the the $380. Here comes the good/bad part...The city will not allow it to be paid off before the 10 years are up. Like they don't need the money?????
Guess they want whatever interest may be paid. But for a cash straped City, you would think, any money is good money. BS swayin in the wind.

Anonymous said...

1856 ft. on the kitten cannon. I be launchin' some pussy.

Anonymous said...

Now the buyer wants the seller to payoff the the $380. Here comes the good/bad part...The city will not allow it to be paid off before the 10 years are up.

*

That's bullshit, sadly someone will have to hire a lawyer at $300/hr to burn 1/2 day, ... It might be better for the REALTOR to put the expense into their name, and let sleeping dogs lay.

Anonymous said...

buster: Marge is this true?

*

I have to admit, after more than a year on this pathetic cat-shit eating fecal kitty-roca site, that Marge & Tim, are the ONLY fuckers that read, and answer fucking questions it is refreshing.

Smitten, Nah I got more cave dwarve wifes than brucey, I'm still waiting for Marge to tell us more about the 35C ( last night ), and some pics, ...

Marge does answer fucking questions, and that is refreshing, I try to be a straight-shooter, and answer questions, Homer you just couldn't answer a fucking question if "Ashley Erickson" was standing in front of you. I did google the image porn sites for 'ashley' did find some good stuff, probably better than the britney stuff that brucey wanks too.

Homer, Note I have called msT, msF for a long time, I hadn't called brucey 'bruce-pussy' until he did that bail-out the the flipper article on BENDBB. That such just pisses me off, but that's our bruce-pussy, if he ain't selling anal-power generation, then he's trying to bail-out the Bend flipper, there's NO fucking doubt the boy has political ambition, probably can't find a real job in this town.

Tonight, back to Old Rasputin, Imperial Stout, good stuff. It only comes in 4-packs, but IMHO its better than abyss, but not better than YETI ( great-divide ).

Anonymous said...

"It's all ON OUR bruce-pussy, he is our super-man, but then bruce-pussy depends on the cave-dwarve wives,"
==========

Well, that really sucks.

Waiting for our brucey pussy is not a really good strategy. How long have we waited for the simple Ethics Commission complaint form to be filed for the illegal Executive Session meetings that the CC is STILL conducting, even after BruceyPussy has threatened he would take action. All threats and no action.

I think our better bet would be on the buff wifeee biker skier dudette. She must wear the pants in that family.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Tonight, back to Old Rasputin, Imperial Stout, good stuff. It only comes in 4-packs, but IMHO its better than abyss, but not better than YETI ( great-divide ).

That does illustrate one really nice thing about Bend, and a possible post topic... Beer. This place has got some good damn beer. And it's a good business. The bloom might be off the micro-brew rose for a few years... but if/when Bend ever comes back, it'll be riding decent industries like beer.

Marge said...

Anonymous said...
buster: Marge is this true?

Annieass? Why cun't you put an ID to the annieass name. Maybe the boys know who U R since you write the same shit all the time. I just don't know who to give credit to. You or some Cali Cat!

Anonymous said...

I think our better bet would be on the buff wifeee biker skier dudette. She must wear the pants in that family.

*

We have only been told about 500 times that she has just started a bike shop there near La Parilla, and Long Board Louies, ... Perhaps we all picket the shop, until she goes down to CC and does her stuff. Hell she got bruce in line, she can probably arm-wrestle all of CC, hell maybe if John Russel disses her like he did bruce, she'll knock him on his ass.

I suspect she's a busy women, having support a whole household and all.

Bend is Fucked, Before we unleash the dogs of war on the the city-hall / city-staff, I really think there needs to be a goal?? Is there a fucking goal??

I mean brucey's goal was to sell alt-energy butt-plugs, and with that being dead, I'm sure the ethics complaint is truly and certifiably dead. All this is bullshit until a real plan is implemented, besides given that 90% here are renters, what is the fucking plan? Given that 90% are planning on leaving what is the fucking plan??

Oh yea, beat our chests and threaten to dump 100-500 page complains on city-hall,

Are we not marines in Bend, we have the puppy's now lets find some cliffs.

Anonymous said...

Annieass? Why cun't you put an ID to the annieass name. Maybe the boys know who U R since you write the same shit all the time. I just don't know who to give credit to. You or some Cali Cat!

*

Marge, I'm Bart, and thus it makes you me mum, think about that.

I have no problem figuring out which post is you. Thus what do you care? You'll get a response.

Just ask this simple question "Whats a mother to do??"

But lets talk incest, Bart want to know more about dim 35C's.

Marge said...

The 35 C's are dim dat are listed as RE folks listed at C an T's. Totally all C's, lot's of guyz too.

Bart, If I am your Mum,,I am honored. But we need to do DNA test thingy. You first.

Anonymous said...

BEM credibility on the line. DVA/COVA/VCB TELL BEM GO TO FUCK SELF. La-Placa to sodomize BEM.

*** $498M proved to Real for Bend

Oregon’s top tourism employees to descend on Bend
By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin
Published: March 05. 2008 4:00AM PST

Seventy of the most influential tourism employees in the state will visit Bend and tour the region next week as part of an annual conference and familiarization tour — and state and local tourism officials say that could ultimately bring more visitors to Bend and the rest of Central Oregon.

Attendees at the three-day Welcome Center Training Conference, which will be held at the Phoenix Inn Suites starting Sunday, will include frontline staff from the state of Oregon’s nine welcome centers, plus visitor centers and chambers of commerce. They will tour Bend, Sisters and Redmond, have dinner cooked by Bend chefs at the High Desert Museum, and explore the region on their own when they are not attending the conference, said Doug LaPlaca, president and CEO of the Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau.

The conference is part of the Salem-based Oregon Travel Information Council’s annual training of visitor center employees, which is sponsored by Travel Oregon, the state’s tourism-promotion agency.
On the web

For more information about the 2008 Welcome Center Training Conference, visit www .oregontic.com/sales/welcome-centers.php.

“The primary benefit is to have this group of influencers learn what we have to offer as a destination,” LaPlaca said. “It’s important for them to see all there is to do in Bend.”

Tourism generates an estimated $498 million per year in economic impact in the region, according to the latest data provided by the Central Oregon Visitors Association.

Attendees will have options to explore Bend’s downtown, visit The Old Mill District and see other parts of the region during their stay in Bend, LaPlaca said.

The frontline staff at visitor centers throughout the state interact with more than 1 million people per year, said Craig Tutor, the development and marketing manager of the Oregon Travel Information Council. The nine state visitor welcome centers, located at points of entry around the state, typically provide itineraries for travelers entering the state.

“It’s a tremendous boost for Bend,” Tutor said. “This gives the frontline staff a flavor for what Bend is all about so that when they talk to visitors heading up (U.S.) Highway 97 to Bend, they’ll be able to say, ‘You have to go to Bend to see this or do that.’”

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Are we not marines in Bend, we have the puppy's now lets find some cliffs.

That was just nutty. Lots of people got real pissed about that...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Seventy of the most influential tourism employees in the state will visit Bend and tour the region next week as part of an annual conference and familiarization tour — and state and local tourism officials say that could ultimately bring more visitors to Bend and the rest of Central Oregon.

What a load of crap. Are we paying for this?

"Influential" tourism employees? Pretty soon, Bend taxpayers will be subsidizing illegal aliens by shuttling them straight to housekeeping jobs.

The conference is part of the Salem-based Oregon Travel Information Council’s annual training of visitor center employees, which is sponsored by Travel Oregon, the state’s tourism-promotion agency.

Well, at least scarce Bend city funds aren't being spent on this boondoggle.

Influential Tourism Employees, my ass.

Anonymous said...

“The primary benefit is to have this group of influencers learn what we have to offer as a destination,” LaPlaca said. “It’s important for them to see all there is to do in Bend.”

*

Walmart, Costco, ... crime ...

Shitty over-priced ski area (MT-B)

San Jose style sprawl in Central-Oregon. Lots shitty ugly HOTELS like Phoenix Inn.

Bend has the SAME fucking problem as Sisters, HOW in the hell can they can people that are flying 80MPH down I-97 to fucking STOP and spend a week? NOT GOING TO FUCKING HAPPEN.

OK, now lets get to the fucking point. 70 people on city-of-bend taxpayer, figure about $2,000/person for three-days wining & dining, ... That's $140k, about a 1/3 of the current COVA ( taxpayer budget ). These 70 drunks are going to be loyal to Bend and write WHORE story's for how long???

Just more fucking party's, endless fucking party's, the IMPORTANT thing is when this TAXPAYER FRAUD goes away, these JUNKETS will fucking END real money that people had work for would never pay for this shit!

Here's a taste - "HEY HOMELESS COME TO BEND,... Three days all expense all you can drink, ski, ... best cooks in town will cater to your needs, ... Just come, ... We're BEND and we have tons of taxpayer treasure that wants to be spent on loving folks for OUTSIDE of Central-Oregon".

So there you have it, BEND taxes the locals, and wines&dines the foreigners. Its an addiction. In the future people will look back at this SHIT and say what the FUCK were they thinking.

WHY COME to BEND?? ITs NOT a fucking tourist place, its fucking SAN-JOSE, the FOOD ain't that fucking good.

Like the comment from HOMER last night about BEND BEER, I didn't at the time want to RUB SHIT in homers nose, but Rasputin AIN'T Bend its cali, and YETI is Colorado.

The fact is HOMER Bend doesn't MAKE good beer, yeh we have 4-6 brewerys, and MOST are 1/2 ass if you compared them to the national, the BEST in Oregon are Pelican(coast), and Ninkasi(eugene), BUT THE fact is the BEST beers in the WEST come from Cali & Colo.

BEND BEER isn't that good, Deschutes is average, and Abyss sucked this year, last year was OK. Bendbrewing sucks, silver-moon only good cuz its cheap, and cascade-locks is average.

Bend is FUCKING san-jose in East-Oregon, and there's NOT a fucking special thing in Bend, you can't find in any other american WALMART town.

More PR&MARKETING, so fucking what.

Anonymous said...

The conference is part of the Salem-based Oregon Travel Information Council’s annual training of visitor center employees, which is sponsored by Travel Oregon, the state’s tourism-promotion agency.

*

Homer you think we aren't paying note the word "PART", sure its a training JUNKET, but YOU know we're paying, and you know all the catering is getting picked up and subsidized, LaPlaca is paid by US, COVA is paid by US, ... VCB is paid by US.

This is all being PAID for BY the bend taxpayer.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Hallo. My name is Manwell Juanita Ortega deJesus, and I am an Influential Tourism Employee in Bend Oregon. I happen to have just crossed the Rio Grande, and am near death in the Arizona desert. But I will soon be in the back of a railcar, and on my way to Bend. I hope to soon be oppressed by Whitey in a dead-end job.

I believe I can serve all Americans. Republicans need me for exploitive purposes, Democrats & Liberals use me as The Victim for all their Hero & Liberation fantasies. I love being Whitey's victim.

My hobbies include fleeing the INS, dying in the desert, working for shit wages, and sleeping like stacked lumber in a Bend Oregon STD with 200 other Mexicans.

So please vote for Manwell for The Most Influential Tourism Employee in Oregon. Thank You!

Anonymous said...

Note below, a 'self funded' state agency, fuck taxpayer, OH yea they get they're money from doing ad's on tripcheck.com, all these state quasi agencys call themselves SELF-FUNDED, so is LOTTO self funded, but its still PERS, its STILL a fucking GOVERNMENT agency, and they're still sending people to BEND to wine&dine at taxpayer expense. NOTE its 'SELF FUNDED' but guess what they use GOVERNMENT property to make their nickels, so in effect its just another tax, its just NOT an explicit tax. I suspect that EVEN COVA/VCB calls themselves SELF-FUNDED.

JUST MORE BULL FROM THE BULL WHEN THEY SAY BEND IS 'PART'.

****

A self-funded state agency, TIC links Oregon motorists with businesses through highway signs, rest area advertising products, TripCheck.com listings, wireless internet connections, and staffed welcome centers. TIC also provides for the presentation of Oregon’s history and unique physical features through stewardship of the Oregon Heritage Tree and Oregon Historical Marker programs.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

San Jose style sprawl in Central-Oregon. Lots shitty ugly HOTELS like Phoenix Inn.

I like the MC Hammer parachute pants they put on The Phoenix Inn. Classy.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The fact is HOMER Bend doesn't MAKE good beer, yeh we have 4-6 brewerys...

My last bottle of Abyss says different.

And I more think that beer as an industry, is good for Bend. Even the "appearance" of Bend being a good "beer haven" is a good business for Bend.

My dumbfuck brother LOVES to come here, ski, and get sloshed on Bend brew. Makes him feel like a real touristy dumbshit... that's a good business for us.

Some stupid motherfuckers will fly 1,000 miles for that as their vacation. Good skiing, or good beer alone won't do it... but both? Yup. We can clock a thousand dumbfucks a week thru the Bend tourism turnstile with that...

bruce said...

Sure a lot of whining going on.

Sorry about the bail out thing, it wasn't aimed at flippers, just people who drank the kool-aid and actually bought a home to live in that is underwater. I still think it would be better to keep the money in the community rather than sending capital gains taxes to Salem or DC.

Marge, get hold of the actual loan document for a start. City should have a copy.

On the ethics complaint--patience. Just a little more. The process runs seven months. Count on your fingers--April, May, June, July, August, September, October--and what happens in November?

Besides, that little bit of patience resulted in the CC making the decision to pay off Kuratek in Executive Session. That was a big no-no. You can't make decisions in secret. But they did and they said they did. Out loud. So I had to add that. And the minutes were just put up this week, which must be supplied with the complaint. They are beautiful:

"Councilor Abernethy announced that the Council agreed to accept a settlement agreement with Juniper Ridge Partners. The City agrees to pay Juniper Ridge Partners $2.56 million..."

No vote, no public discussion, nothing. Directly in contradiction to the law:

ORS 192.660(6) No executive session may be held for the purpose of taking any final action or making any final decision.

It was stunning in its stupidity. It was surreal as I sat there, not believing my ears that they had actually made such a large decision, actually made the decision, in secret in Executive Session.

And I have to do seven separate complaints, not just one, which is a pain in the ass. And they are different--some are just Exec Session related, some have cousins with financial outcomes that they have voted on, some may have voted on decisions that affect HOAs they may have contracted with, etc. It takes digging.

And what is the endgame? Good question. Do we just end up with more of the same? Different names, same interests?

Besides, I'm like Timmy, I've got a lot of other shit going on right now and just have time to pop in here for a little while and then have to move on and get some shit actually done for my clients. They suddenly seem to be coming out of the woodwork. So I'm gone for now.

One last thing: what's the end game?

Anonymous said...

CACB has broke $10, with the biggest volume on RECORD, its ALL free-fall now, no more CACB purchasing to buy the floor, now its all the way down to zero and quick.

New bets anyone?? BEM you bet April for a solid below TEN. It's here and NOW. When CACB goes so does BEND.



Cascade Bancorp
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Anonymous said...

Besides, I'm like Timmy, I've got a lot of other shit going on right now and just have time to pop in here for a little while and then have to move on and get some shit actually done for my clients.

*

Brucey your a lot of things, but you ain't no timmy.

Anonymous said...

Brucey gonna wait until he got 700pages of photocopy crapolla.

Yawn. By the time Brucey WussBag got his papers photocopied, your grandchillin will have died.

BruceyWussBag = Timmy? What dope you been smokin, dude?

Anonymous said...

FAA shut's DOWN BEND AVIATION HOBBY BIZ.

No nothing to do with hobby kit planes from Bend falling out of the sky, not nuttin to do with dat, all about re-training the FAA.

***

New FAA policy may hurt Lancair, Epic
Sen. Wyden calls move to halt some evaluations of kit planes a ‘hammer blow’ to area economy
By Keith Chu and Peter Sachs / The Bulletin
Published: March 05. 2008 4:00AM PST

WASHINGTON — Central Oregon kit plane manufacturers said they could see a sharp drop in sales of their new models, thanks to a Federal Aviation Administration decision that U.S. Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., called a potential “hammer blow” to the local economy.

Wyden and kit plane manufacturers reacted to an FAA announcement last month that the agency would stop performing “courtesy evaluations” of new homebuilt plane models until October. Those evaluations are essential to marketing planes because they assure aircraft buyers the FAA will consider the airplanes worthy of flying if they’re built according to the manufacturer’s instructions. Manufacturers can still sell their kit planes without an evaluation, but there’s no assurance the aircraft will be deemed airworthy.

According to FAA records, the decision will affect three homebuilt plane models produced in Deschutes County: Redmond-based Lancair’s Evolution and Bend-based Epic Aircraft’s Escape and Victory.

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The planes Epic and Lancair sell come as a collection of parts that buyers assemble. Many opt to use the companies’ factories, which have specialized tools and equipment. The advanced planes require a high degree of expertise to assemble, said Joe Bartels, the CEO of Lancair. Being able to build the planes on-site, with knowledgeeable people nearby who can help, adds to the builder’s confidence and helps ensure they build their planes correctly, Bartels said.

Part of the FAA’s concern is that manufacturers are doing too much of the work. Owners are allowed to do repairs on their planes.

But the FAA is concerned if owners pass off the work to others, they won’t have the experience needed to repair their planes.

Bartels called it ridiculous that buyers should be expected to make the carbon-fiber plane parts his company sells, since doing so requires an array of specialized machinery.

The FAA’s move could significantly dent the homebuilt industry for at least the rest of the year as buyers shy away from the uncertainty of whether new planes, like the Lancair Evolution, would get the OK to fly once they’re built, Bartels said.

“What they were doing could very well create great a substantial economic hardship (in the homebuilt industry), not only on Lancair and Epic,” Bartels said.

Citing those concerns, Wyden asked the agency to reconsider its decision, in a letter to the FAA scheduled to be sent this morning. In an interview with The Bulletin on Tuesday evening, Wyden said the FAA’s action could cost Central Oregon jobs.

“Its clear that at a time when the Central Oregon economy is hurting like this, to have the FAA propose rules that throw hundreds of Oregonians out of good paying manufacturing jobs with this proposal is just unacceptable,” Wyden said. “We’re calling for a time out so that there can be some further opportunity to look at this issue and make sure there aren’t a whole lot of new hammer blows on the Central Oregon economy.”

Officials from both Lancair and Epic said Tuesday that neither company was planning to lay off workers following the FAA’s decision. Lancair employs about 65 people, while Epic has about 130 employees, according to previous Bulletin reports.

Dave Hice, executive general manager at Epic Aircraft, said Epic is not considering layoffs as a result of the decision. Hice referred other questions to Rick Schramek, Epic’s CEO. Schramek sat on the committee that advised the FAA on its new policy, but was traveling and could not be reached Tuesday.

In its report, the FAA said the former courtesy evaluation process wasn’t standardized, and that inspectors need more training before they OK complex planes.

The agency plans to release a draft of its new rules sometime this summer, with the final decision expected in October.

Last month’s report did not raise concerns about the safety of homebuilt aircraft.

The Lancair Evolution, a four-seat plane that will fly at up to 385 mph, is ready for its courtesy inspection. Bartels said he sent paperwork to the FAA on Jan. 31, but with the inspection moratorium in place, he’s unsure when his company’s plane will get the review it needs from the FAA.

But Lancair isn’t considering layoffs as it waits on the Evolution and it has the money to keep going, Bartels said. Seven of its other models are already on the approved list.

Wyden said he’s concerned the FAA doesn’t want to accept technological advancements that allow Lancair and Epic to sell sophisticated planes as homebuilt models.

Bartels agreed.

“What the FAA has done is looked over where the market is going, saw they were not in control and (it) is saying, ‘Hey, we’re going to bring these guys back 50 years.’”

Anonymous said...

Boy look at WM ( wash-mu ) & CACB they're running neck to neck into the toilet.

Anybody want a pure play in losing money on PNW MTG, here is the place, no need to look far for a tax loss.

If BEND RE was liquid, this is how fast property would be falling.

BEND RE ain't liquid, so you don't see these kinds of fire-sales, but eventually you'll see these kinds of lows. Note that CACB & WM are down -60% for the YEAR think about that losing 60% in a year, forget about a little time.

Like Marge said yesterday, if you own Bend RE your screwed, especially if you bought it in 2000->2006. WM was giving morons without a breath MTG's, from 2002->2005, they got so much of that shit, and the commercial fucking CACB has toxic Bend commercial that stuff ain't even usable.

Like the old joke about homes, at least people need a place to live, but the commercial, nobody needs this shit.

Anonymous said...

Just in case folks outside of Oregon who read this blog, think that everyone in Bend is a fucking idiot.

Wells Fargo & US-BANK are sitting very pretty down barely 20%, and actually up today.

They didn't do no toxic bullshit, no sub-prime losers, no write MTG's at any cost.

Right now if you walk into USB and you don't have over 760 FICA they show you the door, and during the Bend-Boom, ... WM & CACB hell if you had 600 or below they love you all night long. Well they got the biz, ... Hell WM&CACB have every fucking financial venereal disease you can get.

Sleep with sleeze, go down with sleeze, this is Bend.

Anonymous said...

Bartels agreed.

“What the FAA has done is looked over where the market is going, saw they were not in control and (it) is saying, ‘Hey, we’re going to bring these guys back 50 years.’”

*

That is a good quote, today we're on the cusp of personal jets, and personal space-craft, and FAA wants to put the hobbyist back at the level of the Wright-Brothers, "We only approve peddle-planes",...

I don't think there is much danger of too many bozo's getting those 400 MPH lancairs, last I looked the kit was almost $1/2M, and took 10k hours. Anybody with that kind of patience and money for a hobby deserves a medal.

timothy said...

I just looked at CACB. You're right. A disaster. Down 30% just year-to-date!

http://finance.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=1&chfdeh=0&chdet=1204759122000&chddm=17204&cmpto=NYSE:WFC;NYSE:USB&q=NASDAQ:CACB

What cracks me up are all these signs around town that say things like, "Another Fine Project Brought to you by Umpqua Bank." And it's some disaster that's half done and they've already lost money on.

Marge said...

New York state has made a new rules for lending banks>>No in house appraisers..Gee wonder why?

Heard a good anaolgy today, 2nd hand from an economist (sorry don't know which one). Bend's median value will look like a hockey stick. Somewhere around 110 degree angle going down the blade to a looong flat handle at the bottom for quite sometime before it moves upwards again.
When do you think it will hit bottom and how long is the handle.
Me? I say, bottom somewhere in Feb 09. The handle won't move up til August 2011. Then appreciation at a sustainable level of 2-4% per year for a long long time.
I do see more buyers jumping into the market right now..Dopes.

bruce said...

OK, dickhead BB2 whining cunts, I have every complaint except Capell's done. His is a bit longer, as he keeps voting on Knife River contracts. I still have to make copies of the relevant documents, which I will be able to do over the weekend at the latest.

I focused on three very problematic meetings, the Dec. 12, 2006 on the LS sale, the Jan. 23. 2007 where Clinton and Capell were anointed to bargain with Kuratek, and on the most recent one where they decided to pay Kuratek $2.56 million, in secret, no vote required.

Any Anonymouses going to step and and take a copy to send in with their own signature? The more the better, to shake things up a bit.

Got to get the stink off, you know.

PS No, Timmy is a god. I am merely bruce-pussy. Hear me purrr...

timothy said...

If someone would please tell me how I overnight got street-cred on this crazy board, maybe I can apply that lesson to the rest of my life.

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