Monday, August 13, 2007

Picto-Plummet - A Graphical Novel

Wow, talk about your crazy week. The markets went berzerk over the subprime contagion spreading to the PRIME market; that's code for YOU & ME, Whitey. Seems a lot of stated income "consultants" bought a lot of homes making $180K/year... well, not EVERY year, but certainly once in awhile! But mainly they made a LOT less (and if you didn't lie on your mortgage app, your loan officer was happy to do so for you). But they bought 12 homes anyway, cuz the terms were good. So once that factoid was common knowledge, the Central Banks of the World responded by flooding banks with money, more than after 9/11. I knew the housing market would get bad... but 9/11 bad? THAT'S pretty bad. I'm waiting for this scenario to hit bottom before writing about it.

And BendBB has got the motherload of MLS data, and has made it available on Google spreadsheets. I've put together some interesting data on that. And also have started putting it together in graph form.

And David Fosters monthly summary came out, but has yet to hit the Bulletin.

But I'll write about those things later. Today, I'm going to take a page from Duncan's book, and do my own little graphical novel.


First of all, I was blown away by all the building. They are building every available square inch of this town. Well, either building it or selling it. I don't drive the back roads of Bend too much, but builders are still going nuts out there, building like there's no tomorrow. I saw 2 subdiv's for sale, and I mean wholesale, all lots in one shot.



And there are signs of desperation: Lots of sales of every type, including garage sales, estate sales, car sales, and the increasingly popular fire sale of subdiv's. Remember when those "covered" re-pricing numbers were higher? Yeah, as you can see from Eagle's Landing, it's best to NEVER put the price permanently on the sign to where it cannot be easily covered up. Even Stupid Whitey, who loves a gold starburst, will look down & see how desperate you really are.




Speaking of signs, that pesky sign ordinance that the City has decided EVEN applies to Realtors (la dee da), has gone into effect at Renaissance Ridge. But since they have zero space between the sidewalk & the front door, they just folded 'em up & put 'em on the porch. The upside is that it doesn't look like a cascade of homes for sale.
But the signs that do stay up in Ren-Ridge are for available lots, reading "Stay Bend". What are we, dogs?


There's still some pretty stupid crap going on in Bend. The "GarajMahal", and "Tuscany Pines" both come in near the tops of a race that no doubt has hundreds of participants. Ummm, the GarajMahal is an attempt to sell storage spots for your car at $63,000 STARTING. No car I'll ever own will be worth that much Garajing. Or Garaging. Tuscany Pines has convenient access to the neighborhood juvy jail, so at least you can make mortgage payments selling crack to the guards. "Ranch at the Canyons" is making this idea work. Tuscany Pines, besides being a horribly conflicted name, is just in an awful location. Talk about your Bad Idea.


Well, man doesn't live by bread alone, sometimes you just need a plain sweet ride! That top dude obviously has decided to roll his paycheck into some sweet units, including a vintage International Harvester or something, a pussy-wagon Camaro, and a rusted-out 1954 VW bug converted into a chopped 1945 Ford dually. NICE! That bottom one has decided to go the other route, and has a 1995 Subaru with duct tape rear window, and cardboard underneath to avoid bringing down the house value via oil stained driveway. Now that's smart. The car says, "I'm dirt stinking poor", and the cardboard says, "But I didn't pee on the carpet."

Not everyone is dragging bottom. I drove thru "North Rim" a subdiv on Awbrey for people who like money bonfires. This pic does not do justice to this macro-shack. Holy Crap... this badboy is large & in charge.


After all the gab about NWX-ing being full/empty, I went to look for myself. Saturday afternoon, 1PM. You see for yourself. No kids, no one walking around, no one buying coffee, no one on playground.



And there is just the usual, mile-upon-mile of empty lots and of course, loads of construction, everywhere.



Lots of FSBO Dark Matter out there. BendBB's data shows Coldwell with 4-5 Eagle's Landing listings, but there are at least 50 lots there. And lots of Generic RE Broker signs. No-name nobodies that came out of the woodwork. Everyone in this town is a Realtor.


Plus, this boom has led to some real weird stuff: New mansions next to Fuqua homes, homes about 10 ft wide, and some just plain ugly homes being built. Man, and it is being built in every little corner of Bend.

Here's the upside of a great big juicy RE bubble: poor folks like me can live like a King in some sweet new construction Flipper Bait! This house is BIG!


There's just some funny stuff out there... nice homes with plywoods doors, Realtors with "come-hither" language is just hilarious, and Pahlisch posting a sign at the entry to one of their subdiv's, with some sort of quasi-legal contract about contractors shutting up while building... a sign no one has ever read but the signs typesetter.

Well, like I said, there is liquidity contagion in the credit markets when they found out Cletus was not the only one who lied about his income on his mortgage app. But I figure it was time for a brief drive thru Bend, and then top it off with just a twist of Paul-doh's warped-ass logic.

268 comments:

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Anonymous said...

Me thinks Paul-Doh RE Bubble prophet........... Yep I'm one of those nutty cynical bastards but you had me rollin with this one. I always know when I get the eye roll from the wife and she says blogger.................!

Funny thing is, is that I actually know where some of those homes are too dang funny. This housing mess is going to get sooooooo much worse than I think most sheeple even realize. Surprise I'm a bear but I think we are headed for an economic perfect storm and most people don't have a clue.

Nice post buddy the pictures were awesome I bow down to the king of rant keep it comin.

Duncan McGeary said...

You got me laughing, what's more my wife, who's paid little attention, laughing too. Good stuff.

But you know, 5 minutes after you went through N.W. Crossing it was packed!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

You got me laughing, what's more my wife, who's paid little attention, laughing too.

you had me rollin with this one.


Now, if I can just get BEM going, I'll have the trifecta!

But someone told me he's walking 14 miles to the GarajMahal to get his car, cuz he has to go buy some groceries. Seriously. He doesn't have to worry about the inconvenience of cluttering up his garage with his car. He can walk or take a cab to the GarajMahal, and BAM he's practically at his destination.

But the real win is he get's to brag to people... They're like,

"Hey EconoRocket, need a ride home?"

"Na, I'm parked over at the GarajMahal. It cost me $63,000, but I get all the convenience practically walking to Redmond everyday, but none of the legal entanglements of simply abandoning the car in the Badlands. Plus, I get to say 'GarajMahal' alot."

"Yea, that is sweet."

"Can you give me a ride to the GarajMahal?"

"Uhhhh. No."

Paris said...

I love the Perez Hilton style of picture annotation. Well done. Hmmm maybe a new site with just annotated photos on Bend RE desperation and oddness is in order.

Anonymous said...

Supposedly, Paalisch is going to build 150 new homes a year. I wonder where the hell they are getting their money. I can't Imagine a bank loaning money when nobody is buying. I'll give them another year before they are tits up. By the way.... Yes paul doh, thou art the greatest of the RE prophts.

Anonymous said...

Oops, that's prophets.

Anonymous said...

Supposedly, Paalisch is going to build 150 new homes a year. I wonder where the hell they are getting their money.

The Pahlisch owners made gobs of money during the bubble and now they're richer than God. (And they're also known for being religious and right wing.)

Oops, that's prophets.

Or maybe Paul-doh! is the greatest of the RE profits.

bendbutt said...


The Pahlisch owners made gobs of money during the bubble and now they're richer than God.

These guys all use OPM, if just type 'tetherow', you can find all the loans as all the Florida loan companys tombstone the deals. likewise for Pahlisch.
Every developer I know just keeps parlaying their most recent winnings back into a new deal. Most now have all their money tied up, this is why you see so many whole-sale deals for sales, is that these developers have bled to death and want out. Trouble is NOBODY wants to be in for any price.

I think that a lot of these building's have been in the queue for some time. Just go try and get money TODAY for new projects. Not going to happen.

These unfinished projects will just get cheaper material and more mexicans on the job, in order to reduce the price. "Own your own piece of Bend in a new home for $190k". We're almost there, albeit near the SE 27th Dump. It doesn't matter "It's Bend".

These new homes are just going to get cheaper & cheaper,... The thing with pre-existing un-sellable homes the owners really have no choice but to hold. Sort of like the DUBYA war if we walk we lose, but if we keep fighting there is that 1% chance we'll win, but if we walk today there is 0% chance.

Thus with ALL the Bend homes that have negative equity, which is ALL 2002+ homes, and there must be ten's of thousands. They'll all sit and sit until the war is over. Certainly with RE,MTG, and ancillary hosed folks will NOT make payments, and thus we'll have foreclosure here foreclosure there,...

Folks will dip into the 401K to keep the home, not realizing that this correction is now estimated to be 6-20 years before recovery. The next three years is just going to be painful, slow agony for all those who paid $500k for McMansions that now are being sold new for $250k. What can a mother say? Not much. I would not want to live near the SE 27th dump for any price. I would not even want to have rental out there.

I still bike and walk NWXC daily, never see a soul anywhere.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

albeit near the SE 27th Dump. It doesn't matter "It's Bend".

True. The quantity of building going on makes me think that the "Everyone else, except me" mindset has taken hold around here with respect to building, and even new developments. I saw builders going nuts at many, many new home sites.

The Bulletin interviewed a lot of builders this past Winter who said they hoped builders didn't go crazy building their way out of this funk.... apparently they meant "Everyone else, except me". Cuz they are ALL building like crazy.

And there is not a scrap of land over 1ac in this town that is not being hocked by some commercial broker. I think it's ironic that the "land shortage" in Bend that was very real, has been solved... and then some. There is land EVERYWHERE for development inside the City limits. Every crack and crevice has puked forth land at an alarming rate.

This makes me think that this Winter will NOT be a clone of last Winter, when there was a pretty meaningful dip in inventory. We may stay at inventory rates that are just unbelievable, all thru the Winter. Oy, and next Spring?

Fuggetabouddit.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

From The Source

Real Estate Whiners
Written by Source Editorial Board
Wednesday, 08 August 2007

It’s a sign of the times – increasingly hard times for Bend’s real estate industry – that “For Sale” signs are proliferating all over town as the real estate slump continues and deepens.

“For Sale” signs in front of houses are one thing, but the growing desperation of local real estate agents to move their excess inventory has resulted in signs popping up where they’re not supposed to be – in the public right-of-way, which means on sidewalks and in some cases actually in the streets.

According to the city’s sign ordinance, adopted six years ago, a home for sale is allowed to have only one sign no bigger than four square feet on the property. (Commercial properties are allowed to have much bigger “For Sale” or “For Lease” signs.) Those sandwich-board-style signs out on the sidewalk advertising an “Open House” or giving directions to one are against the law.

The city didn’t worry about enforcing the ordinance during the heady days of the real estate bubble, when realtors didn’t have to do much more than list a house to sell it. But now that the illegal signs are sprouting all over, the city wants to crack down on them. Bend Community Development Director Mel Oberst plans to add two more officers (there’s now only one) in September to enforce the law, and violators could be fined as much as $500 per offense.

Predictably, the local real estate industry has reacted in the way it knows best – by whining.

At a hearing on sign code enforcement held last Tuesday morning, according to the Bend Chamber of Commerce’s e-mail newsletter, “an overflow crowd, mostly those from the real estate industry” turned out to kvetch. Those attending said that, at a minimum, they want the city to “tweak” the sign ordinance to allow temporary “Open House” signs to be placed off the property.

The realtors claim up to 80% of the people who come to open houses find their way to them by means of directional signs placed at intersections. “This is our livelihood,” pleaded one.

Cry us a river, man.

The real estate people say they don’t want to see signs in public rights-of-way. But once off-premise signs are allowed, there’s no way they’re not going to keep cropping up on sidewalks, in the street, in roundabouts and even in handicap parking spaces. If the real estate slump continues, “temporary” signs could hang around for weeks – or months.

And if the slump deepens, can anybody doubt the real estate lobby will be calling for even more “tweaking”? (If sandwich-board signs on the sidewalks don’t sell enough houses, why not try 5-by-15-foot billboards … with neon?)

Here’s a pat on the back to Oberst for trying to enforce the law; we hope the city administration and council will back him up.

And here’s THE BOOT for the whiners. Contrary to what you may have been led to believe, your desire to make a buck doesn’t trump the public interest.


Nice!

I only disagree with one point. TS says the City didn't enforce the ordinance cuz houses flipped so fast, there was no need. I think it was because the RE trade was providing a river of money into City coffers, and so there was a conditio sine qua non.

Now they're slug losers like the rest of us, and the City is starting to treat them as such.

OK Paul-doh... just keep using incomprehensible latin phrases that you have no idea what they mean... and pretty soon they'll think you're BEM... ohhhh, it's coming together now...

Bend Resistance Force said...

I thought this guys analogy that all us anonymous bloggers were just like the Iraqi Resistance might be interesting.

You're like one of those guys planting IEDs and hiding in your spider hole.

This stuff needs to be said. It needs to be recorded.
They say that those who ignore the past are destined to repeat. The attempt here is to record the past.

The humor is designed to humiliate the status quo.

Did you know that the guys planting the IED's are beating the shit out of the most expensive military in the history of the world?

Great amounts of money are nothing against a determined local population.

Using your war analogy how long would a 'spider-hole-guy' having his address in the phone-book, with GPS coordinates that said DUBYA here I am?

It is said that politics is war without shooting. Everything is the same.

The richest and most powerful people in Bend, have done just as much damage to Bend, as DUBYA has done to Iraq.

The local guerrilla forces that survive the Bend Plantation War will be those that live in spider-holes and remain anonymous, at least until the current batch of Plantations owners are bankrupt, and thus have been neutralized, and their police-monkeys have found new masters.

Oregon Business said...

Now they're slug losers like the rest of us, and the City is starting to treat them as such.
*
I agree, but here is the scary thing. These folks only listen and worship the latest rich guy of the week in Bend. Today its Brogman of Les Schwab, and Hollern of Brooks Resources.
A major political problem with Bend is the local population has NO effect on the political machine, because its always been a 'company-town'.
Sure if Hollern goes belly-up, there may be a political vacuum, but given that the Ho's that run this city only know crony-ism, it will not be long before they find a new master.
What 'we' the bloggers must do is force the city of Bend to become a representative democracy rather than a plutocracy and/or kleptocracy.

Anonymous said...

Thus with ALL the Bend homes that have negative equity, which is ALL 2002+ homes, and there must be ten's of thousands.

I still bike and walk NWXC daily, never see a soul anywhere.

More trademark BS from Bendbust. At least he's consistently wrong.

Anonymous said...

There is land EVERYWHERE for development inside the City limits. Every crack and crevice has puked forth land at an alarming rate.
*
Exactly right now a build-able lot is 3500sqft, and the builders are trying to allow 1500sqft, after all you only need a 5ft perimeter around the house for a walk-way, want a yard go to the park.

In the name of affordable housing, all the old mill lots will have flag lots with homes in front of and behind the mill-houses.
Bend doesn't anymore have a land-shortage soon we'll have a density problem.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


You're like one of those guys planting IEDs and hiding in your spider hole.


HEY! Don't bang on the spider hole industry. I'm going to start developing spider-hole rental communities. Motto:

For the discerning Bendite, that likes to dig and live in their own grave.

It's going to be next to Tuscany Pines.

bendbutt said...

How many homes were built after 2002? It certainly seems to me to be thousands? Were there only hundreds? Were NO homes built after 2002? Is it all a mirage?

Without a doubt if you bought a mcMansion post 2002, today it has negative equity, unless you were the rare-bird that put a real down, down.

I'm up at NWXC everyday, and what I see is what IHTBYB shows in todays photo's. I'll also add that when I walk/ride through hood, and see folks doing yard work, instead of a good morning smile, I get the nasty look of "I wish this was a gated community".

Anonymous said...

HEY! Don't bang on the spider hole industry. I'm going to start developing spider-hole rental communities. - IHTBYB

*

Holy shit, you can get a job in Bend, you just solved the affordable RE problem.

We don't have to go no,so,east,west, or UP. We can go down!

Why didn't anyone think? All those old mill shacks can have subterranean lots.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

From craigslist, "$1 I WILL TRADE YOU MY LOT IN BEND FOR YOUR HOUSE"


I own two lots in the Bend Area. One lot is .54 acres in Brasada Ranch, on the golf course, www.brasada.com, and the other is a little over an acre, in North Rim, www.northrimbend.com . Both are beautiful lots.

I am open to a number of options including trade or sell. I would even consider partnering with someone who wants to build a house on the lot, amd we share the net profits upon the sale of the house.

Hope to hear from you.


Lot Flipper tired of watching Flipper Bait rot in the Sun. I ran this through the Paul-doh Flipper Bait Translator:

I am open to a number of options including trade or sell.

ANYTHING, for the LOVE OF GOD! I'll do anything!

I would even consider partnering with someone who wants to build a house on the lot

I'll also consider having a white-hot poker crammed up my corn chute... ANYTHING!

we share the net profits upon the sale of the house.

I won't talk about the losses, cuz this thing is an undeniable loser.

Hope to hear from you.

C'MON! I'm tired of living on China Hat Road! I'm eating from garbage cans!

Bend Condo Ho Assn said...

Bend originally had Sheriff's which were police-men of the people, e.g. the sheriff was elected and accountable to the people ( citizens ), then the City created their own Bend-City-Code and police department, and the police-men became cops. In time the Bend City Police began to think of themselves as boss-hogs ( plantation owners ), and thus became pigs. Today there are still many good county sheriff men, and a few good city cops. Most police in Bend today jump from priority to priority of the week, that which the City-Hall thinks will help sell condo's.

In Oregon, a city such as Bend is NOT subject to uniform-law as the State is, or the county. In a city like Bend, the city-hall can put anything they can pull out of their ass in the Bend City Code, and the cops and pro-tem 'judge' will enforce it. In Bend the City Code is about selling condos and having the city look good for the tourists.

A few Realtors are hurting because there are NO buyers that can qualify, thus theres a lot of signs, but the CITY has decided that the signs actually makes Bend less salable, and thus the signs must not be so visible.

Thank god that Bend has a City-Hall that knows MORE about selling condos to tourists, than the Real Estate industry knows.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Why didn't anyone think? All those old mill shacks can have subterranean lots.

What's sweet about this arrangement, is that when someone goes behind on thier rent, BAM, surprise swimming pool. Bad payors are simply drowned instead of going through costly legal battles... and the surrounding spider holes go UP in value. It's Win-Win.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

This article parallels what Duncan has said about downtown "events" being mixed blessing for Pegasus:

Rally views differ
Some local dealers feeling edged out


REDMOND — The thousands of RV enthusiasts converging on Central Oregon this week bring millions of dollars into the economy, but some local RV dealers say they’re losing a slice of the lucrative RV sales that occur at such events to national out-of-state dealers who visit the shows.

The RV events that occur at the Deschutes County Fair & Expo Center, including the Family Motor Coach Association’s 78th International Convention running Monday through Thursday, and The Rally that occurred last month, bring a large, captive audience of roughly 9,000 people each to see the latest industry accessories and purchase top-of-the-line vehicles.

National RV rallies are estimated to pump between $7 million and $9 million each into the region’s economy, excluding RV sales, according to event organizers.

The rallies also have raised concerns across the country for drawing out-of-state dealers into territories normally worked by local dealers selling manufacturers’ products.

Local dealers have the opportunity to sell at the shows, but they can’t always afford to compete and they face stiff competition from some larger out-of-state dealers, say officials from national and local associations of RV dealers, and local RV-related businesses.

The Oregon RV Dealers Association originally wanted to stop the RV rallies from coming to the state, but the roughly 100-member state organization has begun finding other ways to work with the massive events.

Locally, some RV businesses who don’t set up shop at the events question whether they benefit from the thousands of RV customers visiting the region this summer.

Others, who have worked the shows, have posted lucrative sales this summer.

“I have mixed emotions about it,” said Jim Snavely, owner of Jerry’s RV Service Center in Bend. The company, which sells a mix of RV parts and accessories and provides RV service in Bend, will sell a few items at the fairgrounds.

“In many respects, it hurts my business,” Snavely said. “You get 4,000 coaches who stay in a regimented line to get into the fairgrounds and don’t have the opportunity to buy local. When we have the shows, my business goes down.”

Overall, though, Snavely supports the shows as good publicity for the region and the RV lifestyle. But he says the larger dealers who work the shows benefit most.

“The product I sell is duplicated out there,” he said. “We do get some stragglers after the show, and I’m selling tow bars (at the fairgrounds). But you have a lot of outside people coming in, often lowballing on price.”

For ‘full-timers’

But many of the people at the rallies are from out of state themselves, said Kevin Atkinson, regional sales manager for Holiday Rambler, a division of Monaco Coach Corp., based in Coburg, Ore.

“People coming to this rally are not local people — they’re full-timers,” he said. “There’s a reason why dealers from Los Angeles, Seattle and Eugene have been working these rallies for the last 15 years. They have built relationships with customers. Dealers don’t come up here to sell locals coaches. Although that is icing on the cake. They sell to veteran people who are experienced rally-goers.”

While Oregon’s franchise law has a loophole allowing out-of-state dealers to sell their products at the rallies, other states, including California, Washington, Georgia and Texas, prevent out-of-state dealers from selling in-state without a license, said Dan Morris, president of the Oregon RV Dealers Association.

Georgia’s law, passed in August 2005, prohibits out-of-state dealers from selling a new RV in Georgia “unless the dealer has a franchise dealership agreement … with the express right to sell or distribute recreational vehicles in Georgia,” according to a June 15 article on www.fmca.com.

The same type of legislation, which has been considered by the Oregon RV Dealers Association, would kill RV rallies in the state because Oregon does not have enough local dealers to support an international convention, said Jerry Yeatts, director of conventions and commercial services for the Family Motor Coach Association, based in Cincinnati.

After meeting with the Oregon RV Dealers Association, the Family Motor Coach Association joined the state organization and agreed not to advertise the rally locally in newspapers, or on television and radio, Yeatts said. By not advertising, the convention will draw fewer locals to purchase RVs or accessories from out-of-state dealers, he said.

“We understand their concerns,” Yeatts said. “We want to include local dealers in the show. We don’t want to jeopardize or inhibit their sales year-round.”

The association is preparing legislation that would create reciprocity for dealers from each state to attend each other’s conventions. That would create fair trade, Morris said.

“We don’t mind the (Family Motor Coach Association) coming in, but we do mind that we can’t go to Washington or California,” he said.

Local dealers have a “love-hate relationship” with the conferences, said Morris, who also is president of All Seasons RV & Marine, which has two locations in Bend.

As president of All Seasons, Morris is fine with the rallies coming into town. He purchased 12 Fleetwood motor coaches worth almost $2 million and will sell most of them at this week’s rally, he said. Dealers purchase all their products from manufacturers upfront and incur high-interest loans from banks that cannot be repaid until the vehicles are sold, Morris said.

Large vs. small

Larger local dealers, including All Seasons, Big Country RV and Beaver Coach Sales of Oregon, can afford the upfront costs and can afford to participate, Morris said. Smaller dealers cannot, he said. The amount of staffing needed for the shows also explains why many smaller dealers don’t participate, he said.

“We’re trying to come up with a way so that when rallies come into town, they don’t kill local dealers,” Morris said. “It takes a huge investment (to sell in rallies) and smaller dealers don’t have those resources.”

If a show fails to attract a lot of buyers or a dealer fares poorly, they can be left with big debts, Morris said.

Other RV dealers say the RV shows are lucrative for business and the local economy.

The two RV shows have generated huge business for Big Country RV, which has locations in Bend and Redmond. The company has staked out a large presence at the two shows and sold about $3 million of its $7 million worth of Fleetwood merchandise at The Rally event in July and could sell the rest this week at the Family Motor Coach Association convention, said Rick Breeden, general manager of Big Country RV stores in Bend and Redmond.

Whatever doesn’t get sold at the RV shows will go back on the Big Country lot, Breeden said.

“We bring salesmen from outside of the area,” Breeden said. “It’s been phenomenal for us.”

Big Country RV will have 18 people working at this week’s convention, the same it had at The Rally, Breeden said.

Nationally, the RV Dealers Association, based in Fairfax, Va., says the RV rallies are good for the industry because they educate customers and build camaraderie among RV owners.

But some dealers around the country are frustrated because they lose sales to out-of-state dealers, said Phil Ingrassia, spokesman for the association.

The key for maintaining the success of the RV events, according to the association? Buy from local dealers, Ingrassia said.

Anonymous said...

>>We may stay at inventory rates that are just unbelievable, all thru the Winter. Oy, and next Spring?

I think we'll dip again as some owners give up for thwe winter. Again we'll have rental prices drop as owners try to cover some of their mortgage. Then in spring we start all over again. Kick the poor renters out and try to sell again.

I think panic has already started. We have one 5-bedroom in Skyliner Summit $100k under another. When the cheap one sells, how will the other one aappraise? Think about it. The panic will get worse.

--TT

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

We have one 5-bedroom in Skyliner Summit $100k under another.

Right, marginal seller makes the market. Some seem to think cuz there are obstinate discretionary sellers that the prices won't drop. They'll drop. The marginal desperate sellers will set new mindnumbing low prices, while obstinate discretionary sellers watch their equity dry up... and their houses simply won't sell.

The ultimate bottom will be put in by todays obstinate, discretionary sellers turn into desperate equity strapped forced liquidators who will hit any bid... They'll rue the day they didn't drop their price when "times were good"... that's TODAY.

We're at "NASDAQ 3,500" after the push to 5,050. Those who bail now will look like geniuses compared to the 1,200 liquidator...

Type "reduced" into craigslist RE section... over 70 hits.

Party's Over.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Good stuff from Jesse Felder

Bank of the Cascades is WAY too "Modest"

Cascade Bancorp released their 10-Q (quarterly SEC filing) yesterday. I have been following the company's numbers fairly closely for some time now simply because I believe they are one of the best guages of the health of the local economy.

Digging straight into them, non-performing assets (NPA: delinquent loans) were, in the words of the bank's press release, "modestly higher," and continue to grow at an annual rate over 1,000% (11-fold). As of June 30 this year NPA grew to nearly $10 million, more than tripling since the beginning of the year. Bottom line: since the vast majority of the bank's loans are to builders and home-buyers, the dramatic growth in delinqencies shows a rapid deterioration in the health of these two groups.

Taking a look at another stat, demand deposits (DD) at the bank continue to decline. Over the past year depositors have withdrawn over $150 million in DD, a drop of 24%. Bottom line: local businesses and consumers have 24% less cash on hand than this time last year, signaling a serious drop in general economic activity. $150 million ain't peanuts, folks.

Tetherow Action Team said...

FINANCING...
Marshall Group, financing $96Million
Tetherow Resort Bend, OR Construction/Mini-Perm $96.6 million

DEVELOPER...
Tetherow's developer, Arrowood, a partnership controlled by developers Don Bauhofer and John Lietz

***

With regards to the Bend City Code I mentioned the city and its love affair with condos, most of our city-hall folks have condo's, everyone wants condos to sell.

Then there is the future of downtown Bend, resort time-share sales, this of course is NOT new, as Eagle-Crest was selling this stuff out of Redmond twenty years ago.

Today in Bend we have Tetherow time-share resort sales as the 'anchor' of the Franklin-Crosssings building. The MOST important thing today for Bend City Hall is to sell Tetherow time shares. Period.

We must have events, the world class Heidi Berkman of Old-Mill PR, just left, and is now running events/PR for Tetherow, expect events to 2X soon in Bend, bring in MORE people to sell Tetherow Time Shares.

Now IHTBYB was going to discuss the Brenneke vs Baufoer vs Broken-Top war. From my research I feel that everything that Brenneke is doing today is exactly as previous owner Baufoer would have done. Baufoer sold broken-top so he could get the cash, to get the $100M loan above to start Tetherow, now that he has Heidi Berkman he has Bend City Hall, as Berkman is one of the main 'PR-Bunnys' in Bend that can sway city-hall momentum to the priority of the week, which this week is pre-selling Tetherow Time Shares.

***

Aug 03,2007
Heidi Berkman joins Tetherow
by Bend Weekly News Sources

Heidi Berkman has been named Marketing & Events Manager of Tetherow, Bend’s new golf resort community. In her new role, Berkman will assist the sales and marketing team and head up future events and customer experience programs.


Heidi Berkman
Berkman previously was the Marketing Director for The Shops at the Old Mill District. She is active in the Bend community, working with the Bend Venture Conference, the City Club of Central Oregon, EDCO, Bend Chamber and Humane Society of Central Oregon.

Anonymous said...

What a pain yesterday seeing those 7k RV's rolling into Redmond.

These folks aren't going to buy condo's or time-shares at Tetherow, or Pronghorn,... They're full time RV folks.

What's the point?

Redmond is very much like Portland, that has Waterfront Park rented out every week, it brings in people, and the City can rent these spaces for events and make money. Just like all the events at Drake Park, that nasty noisy old-auto thing last weekend.

I'm sure those car people didn't buy a lot of condos or time-shares either.

The city is addicted to events, but seems to be NO longer bringing in the desired non-placement-bound rich, who is political correct. We know RV folks are NOT politically correct. We know collectors of old-cars are NOT politically correct.

The Bend Film Festival is now dead for lack of money, now that was politically correct.

Mark my words, soon Bend will host the US Porn Festival out of San Fernando Valley, CA. This is because we're now at the bottom of the barrel, perhaps Heidi Berkman on the behalf of Tetherow can get the right events, but I doubt it. Convincing the very rich that Bend is aspen is now highly dubious, if anything Bend is becoming like Moab, UT with red-neck events every weekend, noise, traffic, ...

Note that rich politically correct beautiful people don't want that shit.

When was the LAST time that Aspen hosted a RV festival?

Bend is NO Aspen, and Heidi Berkman has a lot of work to do quick, to turn Bend in the right direction.

Anonymous said...

Tetherow is not and will not be in the City of Bend, as such its development entitlements came from Deschutes County. The city plannng department played no part in the land use approvals granted Tetherow.

Brenneke has zero chance of getting approval of Broken Top redevelopment.

Anonymous said...

Sales of Tetherow Time-Shares is the anchor of that bitch building "Franklin-Crossings".

I never see a soul in that office.

Does anyone know how Tetherow pre-sales are going?

I did do a drive by perimeter ride of Tetherow the other day, the whole place is accessible via Phils Trail Head on your bike, or for that matter your SUV. Besides roads, all that can been seen is a little new green, and a huge man-made lake ( pond ).

Selling Tetherow time-shares is priority #1 for the City of Bend.

Anonymous said...

Waterfront Park rented out every week, it brings in people, and the City can rent these spaces for events and make money. Just like all the events at Drake Park.
*
On this subject, we all know that Les Schwab Amphitheater is 'private', but it seems like its being rented out daily to one event or another...
It used to be that you could hang at the perimeter and watch and listen to the music, now along the trail are rent-a-cops that do the move along "private property", "If you don't move along you'll be arrested for loitering", certainly the pubic right away is 'public' or is it private?
Les Schwab Amp is our #1 event venue, but seems to be a legal-limbo land, its private, yet the cops roam there 24-7 looking for dogs off leash, thus its treated as a public park, yet during 'events' it becomes a 'private park'.

What the hell is this beast if it neither?

Anonymous said...

There are only lot sales available at Tetherow right now. $300K - $750K. No condos, no time shares. Should take about 10 years to sell all the lots.

Tetherows public road (Skyline Ranch Road connected at Century and Skyliners is paved and open).

Anonymous said...

Tetherow is not and will not be in the City of Bend, as such its development entitlements came from Deschutes County. The city plannng department played no part in the land use approvals granted Tetherow.
*
The above comment looks to me like a classic HBM change the subject. Let's all play along.

Every 'planning meeting' I have been to has had both heads of the common siamese-asshole present county&city.

Another cutesy here is "entitlements came from county" hmm, I wonder what this person is referring to??

Anonymous said...

Heidi Berkman has a lot of work to do quick, to turn Bend in the right direction.

"There are only lot sales available at Tetherow right now. $300K - $750K. No condos, no time shares."

*

Then what 'event' is Heidi promoting? Mud wrestling? How about an RV event on the 700 acres, certainly there is a full time road-warrior who would fork down $350k for one of the little lots?

Let's play along, Baufoer just hired Heidi one of the top PR-Bunny's in Bend. She was hired to promote events @ Tetherow. Someone please name these events?

Anonymous said...

Read the below carefully, especially the part about Bandon, which just happens to have the same PR firm as Bend, DVA which is best known for placing editorial in Outside Magazine listing Bend as #1 place for outdoor sports.

Arrowood Development Names its New Destination Resort in
Bend, Oregon Tetherow and Selects Dolce International
to Operate 150-room Hotel
.

BEND, Ore. - Sept. 14, 2006 --
Arrowood Development today announced the name of its new destination resort in Bend, Oregon. Tetherow will be Bend's first 4-star resort and spa, and will be managed by global hospitality company Dolce International.

Arrowood chose Dolce as its hotel partner because of its proven ability to deliver a luxury hotel resort and spa experience with strong local character. Dolce has 22 unique hotels, resorts and conference destinations throughout the US, Canada and Europe.

"We immediately saw that Dolce and Tetherow were a great fit," said Mark DePiero, senior vice president of Dolce International. "From the beautiful yet comfortable accommodations, to the fabulous cuisine, to the abundance of recreational activities in Central Oregon, our guests will be ensured of a wonderful experience."

Arrowood also announced it has selected Ankrom Moisan as architects for the hotel and spa. The firm is known for its high-profile resort designs, including Skamania Lodge in Stevenson, Washington; The Lucia Hotel in Portland; and the Salishan Spa in Gleneden Beach, Oregon, among many others. More information is available at: www.amaa.com.

Resort Name Has Oregon Roots

The resort's name was inspired by historical Oregon pioneer, Solomon Tetherow, who became the leader of an infamous 1845 wagon train party that became lost in the area near modern-day Bend, and survived largely due to the kindness of the Warm Springs Indians.

About Tetherow

Tetherow will include an 18-hole championship style golf course by David McLay Kidd, a members' clubhouse, 150-room four-star hotel with 50 adjoining, high-end cabins for overnight rentals, spa, restaurant, meeting space, 379 single-family homes, and 210 townhomes. David McLay Kidd is the award-winning architect of Bandon Dunes in Oregon, and is currently finishing construction on the new #7 course at St. Andrews in Scotland.

About Dolce International

Dolce International is a global hospitality company specializing in the meetings experience for its customers. Visit the web site at www.dolce.com.

Anonymous said...


Jul 23, 2007 - 05:00 AM
Dolce International Launches Resort Destinations Division
News - Resorts

Montvale, NJ - Global hospitality company Dolce International this month announced the launch of Dolce Resort Destinations, to include ski and snowboard resort properties near Park City and Aspen.

Created to distinguish its growing collection of resort properties, Dolce Resort Destinations are located at the Lakeway Resort and Spa outside Austin, Texas as well as the Zermatt Resort & Spa in Midway, Utah near Park City, and the Aspen Meadows Resort in Aspen, Colorado. Plans for future sites are underway, including the Tetherow Resort and Spa, a luxury golf resort currently under construction in Bend, Oregon.

"Our European properties are great resorts that also happen to be great places to hold meetings and conferences," said Michael Quinn, Dolce Resort Destination's regional director of sales and marketing. "In North America, our newly formed resort division shows our commitment to grow and operate inspired resort properties that rival our reputation for outstanding hotels and conference centers."

In Europe, Dolce International resort properties include Dolce Stiges, a luxurious resort and spa overlooking the Mediterranean Sea outside of Barcelona, Spain; Dolce Fregate, a golf and spa resort resting among the vineyards of Provence and overlooking the Mediterranean Sea, France; Dolce La Hulpe, a golf and spa resort at the heart of the 178-acre Sonian forest in Brussels, Belgium; and, Dolce Chantilly, a golf resort in the lush countryside just south of Paris, France.

Anonymous said...

Was down at the Tetherow office the other day. Not a sole in there except one sales person. They said they did not know when the Tetherow hotel would be built (if ever??) but the latest was it would be just 42 rooms. The remaining over night rental pool would come from cabins (just like Brasada). The Tetherow development is governed not by city of Bend code, but Deschutes County destination resort code. A certain amount of the housing must be available for over night rental. Cabins would be sold and then the buyers could optionally put the cabins in an over night rental pool.

Anonymous said...

http://www.tetherow.com/own/cabins

Located just to the east of Hotel Tetherow, the Lodge Homes and Cabins are attached private residences. The Lodge Homes and Cabins at Tetherow provide owners the opportunity to enjoy all the amenities and services of Hotel Tetherow while providing the right to participate in the rental services offered at the resort. They are the perfect choice for the family that wants to be pampered when staying in their own private home.

For further information please contact us at:
541.318.1234
866.234.4848
info@tetherow.com

Anonymous said...

The Tetherow development is governed not by city of Bend code, but Deschutes County destination resort code.
*
The issue of Bend-City-Code was brought NOT reference to Tetherow, but in reference to how city-hall has modified city code to be friendly towards tourists, .e.g. make the old-mil area squeaky clean, get rid of red necks, ... Make the Condo Ho Corridor tourist pretty.

Anonymous said...

Anyone notice how many of the Brasada [rental pool] cabins are back on the market?

Destination Resorts, just a way to build a subdivision outside the UGB.

Anonymous said...

For those new to the use of silly terms like "Condo-Ho-Corridor".

That is the section of formerly known as Deschutes River, now from Reed Bridge to Colorado Bridge. That section of the River that has been been paved, and will be paved, and having condo's all the way to the top of the cliffs both river right and river left.

From the rapids above RiverBend Park to McKay Park is Condo-Ho-Canyon. A place that is squeaky clean, and Bends best make-up face. In order to sell condo-ho condo's to 'marks', aka Bend tourists.

Anonymous said...

>> get rid of red necks <<

Regardless of the cities efforts, Bend has no shortage. Drive through any of the older neighborhoods and see upside down boats, cars on blocks, homes in need of repairs. While some much needed regentrification has occurred, Bend is still home to many old-timers. I am always amazed at the amount of beer cans along the river and in the forest.

Anonymous said...

Brasada [rental pool] cabins
*
This was discussed last week under the subject "condotel'.

Basically a rental pool, whether Tetherow, or any old shitty hotel, that has been converted to a 'condotel', is way for a property owner / developer to always make money whether the property is in use or not.

This is very important for a place like Bend, which gets 80% 'marks' ( tourists ) in July & August.

Those unfortunate souls who buy a "rental pool unit" ( whether, hotel,cabin,condo,house,or spider-hole ) will spend a fortune in owner-ship costs. When your unit is rented generally the costs passed back for 'maintenance' exceed revenue. Generally the folks that own the 'rental pool' also own the maintenance company, and thus money is made coming and going. Best of all as a developer you get to pass HOA costs to the owners, that you can pull out of your ass.

Good looking realtors, aka PR-Bunny's can sell 'rental pool' real-estate, but it doesn't take a new owner long to figure he's getting fucked.

Lastly by federal law it is illegal to call a 'rental pool' unit an 'INVESTMENT' because you have bought a negative cash-flow property, which is incapable of returning a profit, and thus the word 'investment' is mis-leading and illegal.

In Bend the words: buyer, sucker, mark, and stooge are synonymous.

Anonymous said...

. I am always amazed at the amount of beer cans along the river and in the forest.

*

Your bringing tears to my old eyes, whenever I see a PBR tallboy laying aground a gentle feeling overwhelms me.

I wouldn't be surprised that out there in Edward Abbey land that there were some yougin's just leaving those PBR tallboys albeit empty in the best places of the condo-corridor, most self evident to tourists.

Eek, you just spent $1M on a penthouse condo-ho condo, only to find an empty PBR by your Escalade in the AM, oh what a feeling, sort of like finding a cockroach in your bacon-tempura at the DEEP.

Anonymous said...

Drive through any of the older neighborhoods and see upside down boats,

{ yes, and if it were right side up it would be a swimming pool }

cars on blocks,
{ yes, folks used to work on their own cars }

homes in need of repairs.
{ yes, a desert home will need repairs when its about one year old }

Bend is like Washington DC, many tourists never see the above mentioned 'projects' but they do exist.

What's interesting is that city-hall is seriously talking of banning the above mentioned practices in the city.

Perhaps this is why our homes are no longer selling to tourists? Shit if we could just get rid of everyone that wasn't young, beautiful, and rich. Then we could clear all that RE inventory.

City Hall is like a hammer. Bend City Code is that hammer, and it just takes a few loud realtors to convince city hall that 'X' is the problem, and 'X' will be banned.

Welcome to Bend.

Anonymous said...

>>Does anyone know how Tetherow pre-sales are going?

I heard near 100 lots have sold. I'm assuming some of them are Broken Top emmigrants.

Anonymous said...

Destination Resorts, just a way to build a subdivision outside the UGB
*

Yup, and the whole deal was put together in the 1960's by J.D. Gray and Mike Hollern.

Gray did Sunriver, and Hollern Black Butte.

Gray wrote the book on UGB/LCDC and was instrumental in getting Governor Tom McCall ( Republican ) to pass SB100 which legalized UGB destination resorts to those that could afford the Miler-Nash and/or Stoel-Rives billing rate.

SB100 gets enforced west of the Cascades, but by gentlemen loggers agreement selectively non-enforced on the eastside of the cascades.

Jump to 2007 and UGB is just a way for County/City planning to make some rich and some poor with a pencil and a map.

Welcome to Bend.

Anonymous said...

Sorry to change the subject, but a thinking person could use this for a monday AM laxative. Also before I jump note BEM & IHTBYB bubble on the last thread that WASH-MUT & COUNTRYWIDE are in DEEP SHIT, expect them to do a AHM SOON.

Ok, china with $1.3 TRILLION in US TBILLS says that its not going to upset the international apple-cart. Note here they'll be responsible when deal with 'international investments', nothing about holding a worthless currency going into the toilet. My guess is a shift to EURO very quickly.

China is like Bill Gates lots of stock, but no money. In this case lots of t-bills, but no gold. Time to start trading that t-bill for gold, you don't want to be the last trading partner holding dollars that nobody wants.


China affirms dollar’s global reserve status
By Richard McGregor in Beijing
Published: August 12 2007 17:39 | Last updated: August 12 2007 17:39

Beijing on Sunday sought to repair fallout from reports it could use its $1,330 bn foreign exchange holdings to put pressure on Washington and the dollar with a statement affirming the importance of the US dollar as a global reserve currency.

The official Xinhua news service quoted an anonymous official at the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, as saying that China was “a responsible investor in the international capital markets”.

Anonymous said...

"As technology enables people to live and work wherever they want, increasingly they are clustering in resort playgrounds like Steamboat Springs (pop. 9,315) that have natural amenities, good weather — and, now, lots of people like themselves."
---------------

From a NYT article about 'location-neutral' workers.

Yes, Bend sure ain't Aspen (never had a chance to be, with Mt Bachelor 22 miles away!) Same with Steamboat or Jackson (also in the Top Ten of ski resorts, where MB is in the Top 25 on a good year).

But even if Bend isn't in the Big Time, it still does grab it's share of 'location-neutrals', just like Lake Tahoe and Bishop (skiers) as well as the San Juans do (sailers),

No, I am not saying that they will save us from the Rotting Flipper Bait stench, but I am saying that it is a very real phenomenon. I know first hand... been a high desert plains drifter since 2001.

Anonymous said...

from the NYT:

"Urban Migrants moving careers to resort towns"


http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/13/us/13steamboat.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&ref=us

(may need to log in to the NYT)

Anonymous said...

As technology enables people to live and work wherever they want
*
This has been true since the early 1980's, and the point is?

a.) First you have to have a job
b.) You have to have a useful skill
c.) You have to have proved yourself, and have enough self discpline...

Given all things equal, there is NO specific reason Bend will get this shit anymore than anywhere else, that said we don't even have a Fry's or anything close.

If someone could work anywhere, and make a good wage say $150k/tax-free, with all expenses paid. Why would that place be Bend? Why not Tuscany? or Tahiti?...

The problem is that aren't that many $150k jobs that you get to work from for, except perhaps stated-income hypothetical and we know there were tons of those fictitious $150k/yr folks in Bend.

Anonymous said...

How many homes were built after 2002? It certainly seems to me to be thousands?

That's right Bendbust there were thousands built, not the "tens of thousands" BS you previously posted.

Does anyone know how Tetherow pre-sales are going?

I heard near 100 lots have sold.


Close but no cigar. 100 lots have been "reserved" according to the director of sales. A reservation requires a $5000 *refundable deposit*, which isn't the same as a sale.

Anonymous said...

As technology enables people to live and work wherever they want
*
This has been true since the early 1980's, and the point is?


Give me a break! Bendbust comes up with the funniest statements. Sure, the Internet and the Web and remote access technology were all available in the early 80's, right? Just like Bend was a paradise in the early 80's and we ought to aspire to recreate that Bend style now (with a decrepit downtown and little economic activity except for the strip malls on 97).

Anonymous said...

"This has been true since the early 1980's, and the point is?"
-----

The point is that it is now gaining real traction with many, not just a few, companies. That allows people to 'work from anywhere'. It doesn't allow $150K/yr taxfree so you can live in Tahiti. (WTF?)

But it does allow more people to move to Bend (and other 2nd and 3rd tier resort areas).

It is a simple, and maybe even a minor, point. And that minor point negates your repetitive point that the RE bubble will only bottom when we get to 4X yearly income housing prices (ie 4 X $40K = $160K house prices), because those $150K/yr hi-tech incomes don't show up on any Central Oregon job surveys, since my job ain't 'based' in CO, but Silicon Valley. I just live here while I 'work' out of my CO home office at my Silicon Valley job.

Get it, or should I speak slower?

Anonymous said...

"Given all things equal, there is NO specific reason Bend will get this shit anymore than anywhere else, ..."
----------

True. But Bend will get more than other places, as long as people want to live in Bend more than they want to live in other places. Think it over, and re-read that last sentence one more time.

"...that said we don't even have a Fry's or anything close."
----------
Laughing my butt off on that one! Oh, I get it. High-tech $150K/yr people can only work up here in the High Desert if they have a Fry's near by? LOL!!!

More like a Trader Joes! But I just have to make do with the limited shoppes that we do have here. Big R and the Feed Barn are jsut fine with me!


Fry's!!!!!! You crack me up!!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

From Marketwatch:


Mortgage market in 'downward spiral'
Credit pain to further weaken housing market, Stifel Nicolaus says
By John Spence, MarketWatch
Last Update: 11:20 AM ET Aug 13, 2007

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Problems in the nation's mortgage and housing markets are feeding off each other and creating a "vicious cycle," analysts at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. said Monday.
"The rapidly increasing scope and depth of the problems in the mortgage market suggest that the entire sector has plunged into a downward spiral similar to the subprime woes whereby each negative development feeds further deterioration," wrote analysts Chris Brendler and Michael Widner in a research note.
Investors are uncertain about where the pain in subprime mortgages, which are designed for home buyers deemed greater credit risks, may spread next.
In the view of Brendler and Widner, the U.S. economy may end up in recession.
Secondary mortgage markets where large investors trade debt are "practically frozen," which has led to "dramatic additional tightening of underwriting standards that will likely serve to only exacerbate the imbalance in the housing market," according to Stifel Nicolaus.
The analysts said rates on home loans should rise as lenders try to compensate investors of mortgage-backed securities with more yield to make up for the added risk they entail. The mortgage-backed securities market has been crushed with foreclosures on the rise, and hedge funds and investment banks that bought the debt have been feeling the pain in turn.
Underscoring the shaky conditions in housing, Stifel Nicolaus said its earlier forecast calling for home-price deprecation between 10% and 15% may prove optimistic.
The analysts see a worsening tailspin as housing prices fall harder, leading to more credit deterioration.
"With the coming wave of adjustable-rate mortgage resets, foreclosures, and actual MBS defaults, we continue to believe we are far from the bottom," they wrote. "As a result, we remain bearish on the entire mortgage sector and are increasingly concerned about the broader market as we believe the depth of the mortgage [and] housing and related credit market problems may be enough to tip the economy into a recession."
For things to turn around, investors need to regain confidence in the mortgage-backed securities market, Stifel Nicolaus said.
"Since credit likely won't stabilize until housing bottoms, we continue to believe conditions will get worse," the analysts concluded.

Anonymous said...

High-tech $150K/yr people can only work up here in the High Desert if they have a Fry's near by? LOL!!!
*
I simply hate to be fucking explicit.
let's say your making your $20k/mo remotely, and you need a component, if your near 'frys' you can have what ever you want in a less than an hour,
Out in Bend your fucked, and yea you can 'order' on the internet,...

Lastly, all things equal bend is NOT a special fucking place, people who talk shit like this simply have not traveled.

Anonymous said...

RE bubble will only bottom when we get to 4X yearly income housing prices (ie 4 X $40K = $160K house prices), because those $150K/yr hi-tech incomes don't show up on any Central Oregon job surveys,
*
Fuck off the bend average household income is $40k,
There are 1,000's of liars who got a MTG in Bend, who said they made $150k, on their word.
The fact is $150k/yr consultants in Bend is the fucking flea on a dog.
Read todays paper, second jobs more common, shit this is the real Bend.

Bend has been marketed as a resort town, because its the only way to develop and get past UGB laws, the fact is Bend is just another So-Cal housing development.

Don't say there are a ton of secret $150k jobs in Bend, off the fucking radar because that is bullshit. If you live here and work here you have to pay taxes, and the census would know about you. The fact is the household Bend median income is $40k/yr. Thus even if folks had 20% down, which they don't, they could not qualify for more than $160k, so you can ASK for more than that all day long, but they'll not SELL.

Lastly, these days $150k/yr is SHIT, will not buy you shit a paupers wage. That said it doesn't change the fact that the average-median ( they're close in Bend ) wage for a 'household' is $40k/yr ( wikipedia ).

I still say if a young person could make $150k/yr anywhere go for tahiti or hawaii or Tuscany. Shit there are 1,000's of little desert shit-holes like bend all over arizona and the west.

Bend has been oversold by PR firm DVA, and UBS bank. Repetitive lies don't make truth.

Bend always has been and always will be a washed up little desert logging town.

Resorts: two months golf season and 24 courses. Skiing - mt. bachelor only open really on weekends, as weekdays 90% of lifts don't run, anybody that buys a season pass is fucked, everyone I know this past season that bought a pass has said never again... Biking I think what makes biking fun is lot of autos, but just going through the roundabouts in bend is death, and skyline and century are becoming freeways,

Bend is not a resort its a fucking so-cal housing tract over-sold by PR-bunnys.

Anonymous said...

Sure, the Internet and the Web and remote access technology were all available in the early 80's, right?
*
They were while HTTP wasn't avail until 1992, SMTP was around in the early 70's,

HTTP just put graphics into GOPHER which had been around forever,

People have been 'telecommuting' since the invention of the modem, just fine, and I recall using modems back in the 1960's.

Things are a little faster now, but human nature is what controls remote-working, not technology.

Technology is cheaper now, that is about all that is really significant. OH, yea and before 1995 very few people used TCP-IP, after that it became common for everyone, big fucking deal you can say that about TV,

TV was supposed to make america a democracy and everyone happy and educated, ... Wide access to the internet ( TCP-IP ) hasn't changed a fucking thing, as neither did tv,

internet is just like bend, and over-sold object, over-sold by guy-kawasaki, best of all guy-kawasaki is coming to bend to discuss how to sell abstract ice to eskimos, what a con-artist.

Bend & Guy Kawasaki are made for each other, I hope you all buy a ticket go worship him at the tower.

Anonymous said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5zAvh-iFfU

Jim Cramer. Homebuilder stocks bull Nov2006.

Anonymous said...

How many homes were built after 2002? It certainly seems to me to be thousands?

{ some fucking genius tell us how many houses have been built since 2002, and let's define built as breaking ground, because once the stemwall is in the nature is fucked, so how many fucking foundations have been poured in central-oregon since 2002? I'm talking central-oregon here. My gut feeling is 10k to 20k }

Does anyone know how Tetherow pre-sales are going?

I heard near 100 lots been "reserved" according to the director of sales

{ yep, and you have to pre-sell ( real down ) 25% to get financing to develop, thus at best tetherow will have to sell lots to the rich, with the hope they can self-finance with cash, this is how highlands@broken-top is getting built }

Anonymous said...

>>Wide access to the internet ( TCP-IP ) hasn't changed a fucking thing, as neither did tv,

Not true. Widespread access to the Internet has changed the nature of arguments about who was in what movie. In the old days, you could argue for days about whether Frank Gorshin and Roddy McDowell were both in "That Darned Cat." Nowadays, the argument is over in seconds if you have access to IMDB.

Anonymous said...

"Lastly, all things equal bend is NOT a special fucking place, people who talk shit like this simply have not traveled."

Please... give me a break. With a comment like this, it is pretty obvious you don't get outside much... just a negative person.
Yes, we have major issues going on in Bend right now and the RE/development scene is crazy. We've got corrupt, me-first, screw the land/community & give me my yellow Hummer shit going on left and right. I for one truly hope that we can preserve the community and the land... we do have good people, even in RE (not denying there are RE whores a plenty), in Bend that give a shit about this place so I am optimistic.
But your above comment (and other similar ones about this "desert shit-hole") is just lame. Get off your cynical ass and head to the outdoors... we're in the middle of an outdoor paradise whether you realize it or not. However, if you just like to sit around, get fat and complain, then it might not be for you... so leave. And btw, I've traveled a ton and always love coming home to bend.

Anonymous said...

>>Wide access to the internet ( TCP-IP ) hasn't changed a fucking thing, as neither did tv,
----------

More yuck yucks... Yep, hasn't changed how managers manage people remotely. Everybody is still working of their 300 baud modems from the 1960s!!

You are the biggest commedian on this blog!

This one is even better:
I simply hate to be fucking explicit.
let's say your making your $20k/mo remotely, and you need a component, if your near 'frys' you can have what ever you want in a less than an hour,
Out in Bend your fucked, and yea you can 'order' on the internet,...
---------

Oh, I get it. The 20K/month crowd makes that kinda money *building* things outta components!! And when their inventory gets low, and they have to replenish (JIT, kanban) then they run off to their nearest Fry's to get that capacitor to solder onto their motherboard so they can ship out their computer.

And all this time, I thought China was doing the manufacturing, but instead, I learn that Bend is doing it with their remote, $20K/mo techno-nomads! Fry's is great, ain't it?

Gotch dude!! Thanks for being so explicit (and colorful!).

Anonymous said...

According to the website, Reed Pointy houses are starting in the mid $300,000.00s. That sign suggests otherwise.

Bend Economy Man said...

Awesome post. Hilarious. First-class bloggage.

Anonymous said...

This has been true since the early 1980's ...

Wide access to the internet ( TCP-IP ) hasn't changed a fucking thing ...

Bendbust, you'd be better off listening to people who actually have experience telecommuting since the 80's, i.e. people who actually know what they're talking about, unlike you.

Sincerely,

A Bend-based telecommuter

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5zAvh-iFfU

That's pretty funny. Here's one where he melts down:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtjkWJzxdQU

What I find really interesting about this whole "melt-down" is that we've been talking about this thing for the better part of a YEAR & A HALF! Efficient Market Theory seems to be wayyyyy behind the curve. I guess I've never personally witnessed an investment situation where the fundamental deterioration was quite clear to me this FAR in advance of the stock market deterioration. Usually it's the exact opposite. I watch dumbstruck & a few months later the price action is rationalized.

I don't get it. This housing blow up was well known, and hardly reflected in stocks at all until recently. The NASDAQ, same situation (well, close).

It seems the only situation where I am early is bubbles. All the rest, I am far behind...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

we have major issues going on in Bend right now and the RE/development scene is crazy. We've got corrupt, me-first, screw the land/community & give me my yellow Hummer shit going on left and right. I for one truly hope that we can preserve the community and the land... we do have good people, even in RE (not denying there are RE whores a plenty), in Bend that give a shit about this place

For all my cynicism, I agree here. It's sort of odd to call your long-time hometown a shithole. I like Bend... hell, I love it here.

I guess I see the direction we're going, and some of the decisions, and some of the clear biases towards certain groups by local gov't, and strong disdain for much of the general population, and that really steams my ass. It's the cronyism & old boy network that pisses me off. It's slowly destoying my ability to live here long-term... that's where I get pissed. Ask Columbia Air employees... LAID OFF AGAIN TODAY.

MOTHER FUCK.

Anonymous said...

IHTBYB,

Read Irrational Exuberance, 2nd Edition. Or any of the books that discuss bubbles. Bubbles always go on longer than they should. That's practically the definition of what they are.

People who call the bubble a bubble are mocked aand derided the whole way through. Then it's all, "no one could have seen this coming."

Sure, we saw it and called it, but who listens to us?

--TT

Anonymous said...

IHTBYB,

North Carolina, buddy.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

People who call the bubble a bubble are mocked aand derided the whole way through. Then it's all, "no one could have seen this coming."

Sure, we saw it and called it, but who listens to us?


True. Maybe what I find confounding is the perpetuation of bubbles. I guess I find the complete 180 degree reversal from Economic Rationality to Complete Insanity just mind-boggling. People who just months earlier are seeking low-priced VALUE, begin to actually WANT TO PAY OUTRAGEOUS PRICES... and telling me I'm "Old Fashioned" for not joining in. And after months & months on the sidelines, I ACTUALLY start to wonder if They're Right!

Damn. I'm just glad we're past the "mocked & derided" stage. That was taxing...

And if my track record of FINALLY being right for about 3X as long as I was wrong... well, let's say this blog ain't going out of business soon. When do you fire up BEM? Jan 2006? I should be shutting down in late 2011...

Bend Economy Man said...

I started October 2005, can't remember when I shut down, sometime early 2007.

Anonymous said...

I didn't realize it was a bubble until I was at a party in Fall '05 and some woman INSISTED that I buy real estate immediately. She and her husband had just bought a duplex to flip and she was appalled that I had moved to town and not bought a house yet.

I believe she was offended that she had to share a party with someone less giddy about the prospects for Bend than she was.

She actually poked me in the chest with an index finger. I kinda laughed, as I was half drunk. But the poke semmed familiar.

I though, "what is this like?"

Oh, yes, I realized, this was just like being at a party during the Nasdaq bubble.

I owe her a lot for the realization. And she probably needs the money by bow, too.

--TT

Anonymous said...

Sorry for all the typos. I'm half drunk yet again.

former restaurant owner said...

Brief change of topic . . .as an addicted lurker I want to continue reading this great blog but I have thin skin and am afraid of the comments some of the more acid fingered bloggers may be making when it is announced tommorrow that Hans Restaurant aka Pastries by Hans will be closing August 31st.

After 24 years, we felt the time was perfect for us to turn off the ovens. No evil landlord involved . . .our landlord is one of the last of the old time downtown Bend building owners and has always been more than fair. When we arrived in Bend in 1983, downtown was in transition and our timing was perfect to open our little "vanity" business. We were exactly like the folks moving to Bend today . . . . brought home equity with us to open our business, purchased a home on a few acres (difference being it was a bank owned foreclosure) and lived with the "poverty with a view" card pinned to our bulletin board for years!!! We chose Bend as a great place to raise a family and indulge in our recreational passions on the cheap. (I am a third generation Oregonian which seems to mean something to certain folks!!)

Downtown is once again in transition . . . . we have always been a neighborhood cafe and downtown has lost its neighborhood feel. We arrived at the right time and we are leaving at the right time. We will be closing our doors at the end of what will be the highest grossing month in our 24 years. The restaurant environment has always been challenging but we recognize that it is about to get way tougher. I know of several new restaurants opening in downtown in the next several months, two restaurant reinventions and more as yet unannounced restaurants coming into the Old Mill.

We need to make way for the "New" Bend but are so thankful for the years that it was our secret. It really isn't a matter of now versus the "good old days" - The 80's and 90's really were that special period between discovery and exploitation. We can't begrudge others from seeking what we kept to ourselves for so long although we can be real crabby about some of bad development that has resulted from their arrival.

Yes, Duncan, I have never talked to a downtown merchant who benefited from the downtown street closures. I think everyone is afraid to say anything for fear of the "smackdown" so it is easier to spout the company line about the great "exposure" even if business is down!!

Wonderful letter to the editor today in the Bulletin. In a few paragraphs, this gentleman covered it all. Should be required reading for all the city councilers with the citizens of Bend demanding some answers.

Back to my lurker hole . . .please be gentle (I know that's like waving a red flag)!!!

Anonymous said...

please be gentle (I know that's like waving a red flag)!!!
*
All must bleed, all must fall to their knees.

Anonymous said...

I don't get it. This housing blow up was well known, and hardly reflected in stocks at all until recently.
*
You have the baby boomers, and trillions in pension investments. They lost in dot-com, and now they're going to lose what's left.

In 45 days the letters have to go out that all the pension funds are hosed.

Then the redemptions will be demanded.

A bank-holiday will be demanded.

Selling what you can for penny's on the dollar.

During the last five years with computerized trading everyone was playing the same game with pension money.

Soon the pension money will be gone, from the market, and from wall street, and from mtg-street.

S&P & Moodys listed bonds as 'AAA' that were actually 'ddd', the pain, like this has never been seen.

Anonymous said...

Everybody is still working of their 300 baud modems from the 1960s!!

You are the biggest comedian on this blog!
*
Thanks

It's takes a good laugh to live in Bend.

Anonymous said...

In the old days, you could argue for days about whether Frank Gorshin and Roddy McDowell were both in "That Darned Cat." Nowadays, the argument is over in seconds if you have access to IMDB.
*
Yep, and wiki & IMDB is the end of the word, because we know some snot ass kid just typed the shit in.
There have always been databases online, its just that you used to have to pay, nowadays everybody steals information.
Getting back to the point, and I know this is hard.

The point is that 'people' makes telecommuting work, not technology.

The piss ant people now are NO better intellectually than the 60's or 70's, its just that now everything is being farmed to asia.

I guess that's the beauty of 'telecommuting' you get them out of the office out of site, proof of concept, and once it works you just farm to asia, and if it doesn't work you shit-can them, no loss because nobody at the office knows.

Yes, telecommuting in Bend is the great white hope.

Anonymous said...

For all my cynicism, I agree here. It's sort of odd to call your long-time hometown a shithole. I like Bend... hell, I love it here.
*
A shit-hole it is because the all of your sat on your ass and watched Bend be sold to the highest bidder.

Ahh, yes so fucking smart because you saw it coming, only a fucking idiot wouldn't know it was a classic greatest fool program.

But the greatest fools were those that sat on their ass and allowed Bend to be destroyed.

Anonymous said...

Damn. I'm just glad we're past the "mocked & derided" stage. That was taxing...
*
Yeh, and now were at the 'everyone' saw it coming stage, its all boring.
What will be most interesting is the silent vacuum stage.
When folks lose their ass they're not going to be posting, but leaving.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

After 24 years, we felt the time was perfect for us to turn off the ovens.

Good luck to you.

We will be closing our doors at the end of what will be the highest grossing month in our 24 years.

I'm just curious... why close? If it's finances, I understand, I'm guessing rent. If not... heck, I would have sold. Seems like there are gobs of restaurateur wannabe's that would have bought.

we have always been a neighborhood cafe and downtown has lost its neighborhood feel.

Agreed.

former restaurant owner said...

I'm just curious... why close?


It may be our biggest month, but as Duncan has frequently remarked, there is July, August and December and then nine other months that you just get by. It was getting harder and harder to just get by!! Our lease was coming up for renewal . . . . .rising food, labor and overhead costs, a nagging discomfort with downtown and just plain fatigue all contributed to this decision. Our landlord has always been fair about giving us an under the market lease rent and it wouldn’t have been right to take advantage of their good faith to sell out. They deserve to get what all the "new" landlords are receiving. We could foresee a time in the pretty near future where finances would be an issue so we’ve opted to move on to other projects.

bendbutte said...

Our landlord has always been fair about giving us an under the market lease rent and it wouldn’t have been right to take advantage of their good faith to sell out.
*
For the past twenty years Hans has always been one of my favorite places for a good dinner and a bottle of wine.
Be sure to keep us informed of your next project.
Perhaps there will be a 'new area' of Bend that will be 'hip' and affordable.
Lastly, your faith towards your owner represents you as one of the very last honest people. Certainly a new owner wouldn't have trusted you as such.
All said 24 long years operating one restaurant must have been tiring. Time for something new, too bad there's not a walking close-in under-priced section of town that locals just want to eat and drink.
Seems like the trend is strip malls, for instance the new long-board-louies is out at 27th&hwy20, too much traffic.
Normally the best restaurants go where the lowest price rent is, so you can focus on food rather than paying the rent, and of course make more money because its not all going towards the lease.
If that area in Bend exists that's both cool, and over-looked I would like to know, perhaps the lonely section of old Division, cerntainly NOT hwy20 or hwy97 the traffic is horrible.

Anonymous said...

Cascade is now artificially covering their stock when people sell, not a good sign.
Perhaps Brooks & Renaissance will start buying all the homes in Bend for sale for full price.

Cascade Bancorp authorizes share buyback
Portland Business Journal - 1:52 PM PDT Monday, August 13, 2007


Cascade Bancorp announced today that its board of directors authorized the company to acquire up to 5 percent of the company's issued and outstanding common shares over a two-year period.

The Bend-based parent of Bank of the Cascades said management's discretion will determine the timing of the stock repurchase transactions and the number of shares repurchased.
Click here to find out more!

Cascade (NASDAQ: CACB) has approximately 28.5 million shares outstanding.

Anonymous said...

Read carefully "Last year was best ever", sounds just like Hans, that said I think anyone that's been around in Bend for 20+ years knows what's coming. You would have to have been a retard not to make money in housing the first 1/2 of 2006.

Still building after 30 years
Palmer has been through highs, lows of local housing market
By By Chuck Chiang / The Bulletin
Published: August 14. 2007 5:00AM

Burnt red, olive green and cream white — Vern Palmer’s homes are filled with bright colors, inside and out.

These brightly colored houses aren’t actually his — Palmer, the CEO of Bend-based developer Palmer Homes, planned and built this neighborhood in east Bend — but the subdivision oozes the vibrant personality of its planner.

From the colors to the green park strips in front of many homes in this neighborhood dubbed “Gardenside,” the area is filled with wide-open spaces and pedestrian walkways stretching from one end of the development to the other.

Many residents, however, won’t see cars in front of their homes. The park strips will occupy the area in front of every house in Gardenside’s phase two plans, taking up space normally reserved for streets and parking.
The Basics

What: Palmer Homes
Who: Vern Palmer, CEO
Where: 120 S.W. Cromwell Way, Bend (sales office)
Employees: 20, and five sales personnel
Telephone: 389-7806
Web site: www.palmerhomes.com

“It’s actually a very important urban concept architecturally,” said Palmer. “Instead of having a street in front of the houses, there’s park space. It’s more about how we interact with one another. We moved garages to the back, and without the street, it gets the automobiles out from in front of the houses, and people have their porches and the park space so they can interact with one another if they want to.”

The Gardenside neighborhood — which also contains a house whose sale proceeds were donated to Habitat For Humanity — is expected to have 173 homes when it is built out. Palmer said phase two should be finished by next summer.

Gardenside and other Palmer-developed subdivisions and houses won 11 awards at the recent Tour of Homes, organized by the Central Oregon Builders Association, and despite the softening residential housing market in Bend in the last year, the Bend-based developer is optimistic about the outlook of his company.

“Right now, we’re busier this year than we were last year,” Palmer said. “Value housing is a lot of what we do, not expensive homes, and I think that helps us. And the (labor) situation’s really good for me right now. It (was) not so good a year ago, when the subcontractors were all really busy with all the projects going on. In those times, it’s tougher because good subcontractors are the key to a quality home, and the probability of finding another good subcontractor (to replace the busy ones) is low.”

He added he is also worried about the availability of residential land in Bend in the future, noting that the city’s urban growth boundary needs to be expanded before the next real estate spike hits the market.

For now, however, he’s worried more about the bright red couch in the phase two model home in Gardenside.

“I wouldn’t be caught dead with that in my house,” he laughed.

Q: Much has been made about Bend’s residential real estate market slowing down this year. What has your company seen?

A: The market is pretty good this year. The end of last year was slow, but it’s pretty good right now, and I think it’s because we have a variety of homes that can accommodate different groups of people. The velocity of sales is good, and nothing that has been completed hasn’t been sold.

Each phase, as we move along, gets tweaked a little bit here and there in terms of the concept. From here on out, we’ll probably look at putting in three-car garages on some lots.

Q: Palmer has been in Central Oregon for 30 years. Can you compare what you’re seeing now versus the current slowdown?

A: We started in Sisters and moved to Bend in 1985. We’ve been here for 30 years, and we’ve built a lot of houses all over Deschutes County.

We built a bunch of houses in Sunriver in the ‘80s, because at the time, nobody wanted to do anything in Bend except for head out of town. The market went off a cliff in 1979, where all the contractors were leaving because there was no work. Nobody was building houses, and all the mills closed because nobody was using lumber. The unemployment was somewhere around 16 percent. I mean, can you imagine that?

And then you have last year, where it was a totally different environment. It’s nowhere near as bad. The housing price jump was unsustainable. I’ve never seen anything like it, and I’m glad the market is coming down to more reasonable levels so that people can afford houses in the Bend area. And that’s our focus: To build homes that people can buy.

Q: Can you assess the current market situation in Bend?

The problem with today’s situation is that more and more people bought houses not out of need, but because of investment purposes. And those investors are putting their investments on the market at the same time, and the market has to absorb all that inventory. And it was really strange seeing developers from elsewhere come to the market, and that really hasn’t ended. A lot of them are coming in because they think here is land-a-plenty, and that played a role in houses being overpriced.

But it’s not nearly as challenging as what we saw in the ‘80s. Back then, we were selling one house a year, and I even did all the work putting the houses together. It’s not my strength, but carpentry came to me naturally. But now I’m no longer hands-on with building things except for putting up frames of the (Habitat for Humanity project).

Q: Talk a little bit about your work with Habitat for Humanity.

A: We recently decided that we wanted to do a Habitat house. We thought we’d take one lot in the neighborhood and build the site for people to live in. We talked to Habitat, and they said they’re doing fundraising themselves. They told us that it would be more helpful if we build the house here, sell it, and give the proceeds to Habitat, because what they’re building will house more than one family.

We got very excited about that idea, and we finished what we called “the Helping Hands House” in mid-July. It raised $100,000 for the Habitat, and the family that lives there now loves the fact that they’re helping provide affordable housing in Bend (by buying the house).

Q: There were some rumors about Palmer Homes having financial trouble last year. Was there any truth to them?

A: We heard about that all last year ourselves. We’ve even heard from one of our suppliers that somebody has called them about us, and they said: “‘Well, they’re still ordering lumber from us at the beginning of every month and sending us a check at the end of the month, so if they’re going under, we’d be the first to know.’”

Last year was our best year ever. We’ve been here 30 years, and we’ll be here for another 30 years.

Anonymous said...

Yep, Watch NOW what they say, watch the supplier payment's.

For those who like to dig deep, there is a way to know who is up and who is not.

A supplier will ALWAYS file a lien on a house to a builder who doesn't pay on time, thus you just to to public records or use online, on your favorite address, and see which builders have had suppliers file liens, people don't file this shit unless they're not getting paid.

A new house is built on draws, and the bank will not issue a draw unless liens are paid, and thus its a nice way to make sure a supplier gets paid first, its also a nice way for the snoopy to know who is paying their suppliers and who isn't. You can FUCK workers and subs, they like to be fucked, but suppliers are fronts $10's of $1,000's of cash materials, and they don't like to get fucked,

Duncan McGeary said...

To 'former restaurant owner."

You are being too kind to the newcomers, and too modest about your own accomplishments.

I opened a little after you, and I know what a long time it took for downtown to get back on its feet.

Now that it is, a whole lot of newcomers are clamoring to get downtown, whether it makes any financial sense or not.

I, also, have the nagging discomfort about downtown, which is why I've been looking at a second location.

And thanks for the confirmation about the 'street closures'. I don't blame anyone for not making a big deal out of it. I have little to lose speaking out; my customers just laugh.

Anyway, for everyone reading. Just think about businesses that have been here for 24 years, not just Hans, but my former neighbors Central Oregon Trophies, and the Sole Shop, and on and on, looking at the economic terrain in downtown Bend and leaving. These are savvy survivors, most of them. To be replaced by what? People who will spend 75k on grocery equipment (equal to setting up costs)?

Just having money and opening fancy stores doesn't mean you know what you're doing.

Anonymous said...

Just having money and opening fancy stores doesn't mean you know what you're doing.
*
Yes, everyone in Bend bought 2 or 3 homes when they were appreciating 30%/yr, and now all are trying to sell.

Get rich downtown in commercial, that is what's happening right now in PDX, and pdx always leads Bend.

Right now condo's are dead, and so are apartments, but commercial is hot, just build a box, and another bar, restaurant, coffee-shop, tea-shop,... will lease it out, and they're all full and pay their rent. That's the way its been so far. Go to Mississippi in NO-PO, six blocks of bars all backed.

Problem is when things slow down, folks will NOT be out drinking coffee all day long, and booze all night long.

People that sign huge leases downtown, see the DEEP always packed and say that's me. Right now is great then again, we are a shoulder-economy ( july-august ), soon the DEEP will not be packed.

Local's will NOT go downtown, because its too expensive.

Bend commercial is a gold-mine, just open a little bar and watch the cash flow in $2k/night, thus is only takes a few days a month to pay the monthly lease. Problem is there are too many fishermen chasing too few fish.

I'm sure Mr. Hans is getting out the same reason as Mrs. Marz did several years ago, I remember feeling so bad about her selling my favorite place to eat. But she said that Merenda had changed everything, and she needed to get out while she could, she said she was lucky early with an absence of competition.

Now in downtown Bend you'll have dozens of bars, resturants, coffee-shops all chasing a few trendy tourists, and a few newbies that haven't yet blown through their HELOC max. Come the long coled Jan->June 2008 most of these new businesses will not be making rent. Better have lots of 401k to dip into.

The people who make out the best are REIT owners of the property, getting suckers to sign five-year triple net leases, which means you pay all tax, all maintenance, and are obligated to pay 60X rent whether your business survives or not. Ol robert-ringer of 'how to intimidate' used to call these deals 'fucked at signing' deals.

Who cares, they sign, make sure they have the money, let them sign, let the place sit empty for 4-1/2 years the money still rolls in,... Everybody hoappy,

Welcome to Bend.

Anonymous said...

I need to say something else about the commercial so everyone knows why its hot.

For condo or apartment, you have a high sq-ft cost, but a restaurant, coffee-shop, bar, is just a box.

Super-cheap to build, and then you triple-net-lease and its VERY EASY to pencil, thus you'll see A SHIT LOAD of investors doing this because its the only way left to make money.

Because it still pencils the bank will loan, quite often right now with cash flow on these deals folks I know doing it are seeing 60% of lease paying all mtg, and thus they're seeing 40% profit, the bank loves this.

With apartments, there's too many, and most people are seeing a loss, thus the bank has shut them down.

I still say that soon we'll have too many boxes, especially given that our shoulder economy doesn't support everyone to go out every night and dump $100/person.

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't be surprised if the commercial was already slowing in the planning stage as developers see more and more commercial space for rent.

But, yeah, they are builders--what else are they going to do if not build something? And this is the only something left that makes any sense at all, except for the mega-resorts that you can confuse and dazzle bankers with because each new one is unprecedented in size and gaudiness.

Joey In Sisters said...

I noticed the Bulletin biz section ran a different story on the same family they profiled in this same year. The family is from somwhere in So. Cal. They're starting a yuppie "market" in the deserted roads of NWX. What I find interesting is that the photos they show of this family inside their "market" doesn't look any different then the shots they took 6 - 8 months ago. Good luck to them! I think they may need it...

Anonymous said...

The story said the prices would be more expensive than a 7-11, but cheaper than a Safeway. Wait, what?

Think they got that backwards.

I wish them luck. I can see running over there for milk or baking powder or eggs or evaporated milk or whatever else I'm "missing" when I cook. Don't know if I'll trust them for meat or produce.

Duncan McGeary said...

About that market. I think people often under plan these ventures. In this case, they may have over planned.

We know they spent 75k on equipment, which they mentioned was almost equal to 'construction'; so we know they've sunk 150k in infrastructure, right off the bat. (Plus fancy business cards, etc. and god know what else....)

They are also paying 2.35 a ft. !!! and they don't mention triple net, which in my experience would be a minimum of .25. So 2.60 times 1500 sq. ft, equals 3900.00 a month in rent alone.

Just for fun, I googled up some industry averages.

For neighborhood shopping centers, the average sales per foot are:

General Merchandise; 100.36
Food 311.72
Food Service 182.61
Gifts/Specialty 148.75

Average 185.86

So 185.86 times 1500 sq. ft equals
278,790.00 annual sales.

The bigger the shopping center, the more per foot. So Regional centers make more than local centers who make more than neighborhood centers which make more than stand alones.

Benefit of the doubt, they are in a 'neighborhood center.'

Average margin on groceries (this includes the big boys) 32.2%.

So gross profit, not counting expenses, is 89,770.38, or 7480.86 per month.

O.K. So assuming that they have an 8 time turnover in inventory, they need about 25k, more, so lets say they're investing 200k altogether.

So 6% interest would earn them 12,000.00 a year, no risk, no work.

After we take the minimum overhead of say, 5000.00 a month, they have
2480.00 left. So assuming no other expenses, and assuming they work every hour of every day, lets say 10 hour days times 6, and 6 hours on the seventh, they earn about 8.85 cents per hour.

But they are going to sell specialty foods and services. All the research I looked at said that ADDED to the Expenses, and LOWERED the margins.

In other words, they'd be better off selling, beer, soda, smokes and snacks.

Duncan McGeary said...

I can't help but compare this to the Bond Street Market, here in downtown Bend. He sells the basics -- its a one man operation, no need for fancy coffee machines or ice cream makers, or whatever.

Beer, cigs, aspirin, soda, pencils, snacks, etc.

Maybe 800 sq. ft., just guessing under 2.00 per foot. So, say 1600 a month in rent. 150k in sales, industry average, 32.2% margin, 4800.00 per month sales. Say overhead of 2000.00 a month, also leaves about 2800.00 per month. One man operation, banker's hours, not bad.

The biggest advantage -- I doubt he sank even 15k into fixtures and startup costs. Probably leveraged the groceries out of the suppliers, and probably some of the equipment too.

Bend Economy Man said...

A couple comments -

To the Hans family - thanks for the memories and the way you "quit while ahead," while sad for those of us who considered Hans an institution, is a dignified bow-out. Thanks for the heads-up to the blogging community - these boards are really becoming the "fifth pillar" of community involvement. I hope you consider a new project when the time is right!

About the new Northwest Crossing mini-mart, I second Duncan's comment "they'd be better off selling, beer, soda, smokes and snacks."

From a human point of view I realize that you don't move up with your family from Long Beach with a dream of being a run-of-the-mill convenience store owner. And I also understand from the story that the proprietors really had to pitch the deal to NWX and Compass Commercial (though maybe this was kind of a bluff - doesn't seem like they got much of a break - with those rents they probably could have said they were going to start an adult video store and gotten a lease).

It is not a bad idea to have a neighborhood market from a convenience perspective - you could really keep costs down and even cultivate a funky feel if you buy old coolers, displays, shelves, etc. But then again, Riverside Market, Hill Street Market and Delaware Market were never hand-over-fist money machines even though they did go the beer-soda-smokes-and-snacks route.

But now even as they are, paying downtown-level rents for a convenience store, even having invested $10,400 in a frozen yogurt machine, they should get themselves a good magazine rack, a deep fryer, buy some fresh daily sammiches from a local vendor, put some tables and chairs on the sidewalk and get ready to be the $3 lunch place in the neighborhood rather than a specialty yuppie grocery store. To the extent there's still a lot of buildout and other activity to be done in NWX, they can get a lot of business selling lunch to the construction workers and maintenance crews.

The unfortunate fact is that, even with NWX's "walkability," 6 months of the year due to the weather most people have no interest in walking even a few blocks to get a gallon of milk. They drive. And if you're driving, why not go to Newport Avenue Market, Ray's or Safeway where you can load up? Since it's a family-run place, I don't see them being open late, so their only convenience advantage is geographical.

Also, God forbid, I hate the idea of naive, first-timer convenience store owners with no street smarts working shifts by themselves (the story notes that both mom and dad are keeping their day jobs, so presumably they'll alternate shifts and now never see each other) in a town where every other day it seems like something gets robbed at gunpoint or knifepoint.

I feel guilty pissing on the idea of someone else's Leftorium, but since it was brought up...

Anonymous said...

New press release from Tetherow, most interesting is they're still relying on 2005 growth rates to sell these puppy's, note its like its still 30%/yr ROI even in 2007. This reminds me of the old Fidelity Magellan fund advertising zillion percent returns after fund was open, never mentioning that real returns were made when the fund was close ( small print, past return is no guarantee of future ). There should be a law that say's that buying into an Oregon Golf Resort is NOT an investment.

Homesites Now Available at Tetherow, Bend's New Golf Resort Community

Golf Course Designed by David McLay Kidd Attracts Buyers

Tetherow, a 700-acre golf resort community currently under development on Bend's desirable west side, officially kicked off sales of Phase I homesites. In the initial release, 100+ homesites were reserved with an estimated value of $53 million. The community is located on an 18-hole golf course designed by David McLay Kidd, renowned architect of the Castle Course in St. Andrews, Scotland and Oregon's highly rated Bandon Dunes.

"In the challenging real estate market, Tetherow is pleased with the positive response and successful first release," said Joe Kearney, Tetherow director of sales. "This weekend's activity demonstrates that buyers are still interested in a quality product. The great location and the David McLay Kidd course are reasons for the market to respond."

All Tetherow residents will enjoy a Social/Athletic Membership in the Tetherow Golf Club. That membership offers access to all resort amenities including the Tetherow Spa and Wellness Center. Homesite buyers can join the Tetherow Golf Club, providing access to the Golf Academy and the David McLay Kidd golf course.

Aligned with Kidd's acclaimed design approach, the heathland style golf course and resort community will blend into the natural surroundings of bunch grass, manzanita, rock outcroppings and gorgeous mountain views. To this end, Tetherow is working with the Audubon Society to gain the highest status as a Bronze Level "Audubon Certified" golf course, one of 40 worldwide. The course construction integrates environmentally friendly practices in order to build a sustainable ecosystem.

With views of National Forest land and the Cascade Mountains, the Tetherow Lodge, Clubhouse and Spa and Wellness center are being designed by Portland- based architects Ankrom Moisan, whose portfolio includes Skamania Lodge, The Lucia Hotel and Salishan Spa.

About Bend

According to Central Oregon Visitors Association's latest economic impact study, published in 2005, Bend is one of the most rapidly growing cities in the United States. In the last ten years, Bend's population grew by 50% and it is anticipated to grow another 60% in the next twenty years. Residents are drawn to Bend for a high quality of life, great weather, access to outdoor recreation and a thriving community. The population of Bend reflects these interests. With the current median age of 35 years old, Bend's population is a mix of families, outdoor enthusiasts, active retirees and those with the ability to work remotely. Many have the desire for urban sophistication with easy access to recreation. Tetherow is a development designed to meet the needs of this audience who appreciate luxury and a relaxed lifestyle.

About Tetherow

Located seven minutes from downtown Bend, Tetherow is Bend's new golf resort community. The 700 acres include 379 homesites, ranging in price from $320,000 - $755,000 and acreage of 1/3 acre to over an acre. Tetherow will include an 18-hole private resort golf course designed by David McLay Kidd, renowned architect of Bandon Dunes and the Castle Course, the seventh course at St. Andrews, Scotland, a members' clubhouse, a luxury hotel and spa, sports and recreation center, restaurant, meeting space, single-family homes, Lodge Homes and Lodge Cabins, and Townhomes. Tetherow will be managed by the global hospitality company Dolce International. Dolce International is one of the leading hospitality providers in the world, with 26 hotels, resorts and conference destinations in the U.S., Canada, and Europe.

For more information, visit http://www.tetherow.com/ or call 866-234-4848.

Anonymous said...

I have been going on/off to that little coffee shop @ nwxc for 3+ years, hardly anybody ever there, except young girl behind the counter selling stale baked goods, given that everyone drives @ nwxc, just go to the baker off 14th and get stuff fresh, ( village baker I think, #1 in bend )

The new wine bar '39' or something like that is like $9/glass for $6/bottle wine, ... When the trader-joe comes to Bend, thats where ALL wine will be bought.

There is so much commercial for lease @ nwxc, and the homes are so empty,

Given that the way NWXC has to go is low-income rental housing, I think the idea of having a quicky-mart in NWXC is the idea, but lets remember the model,

Lottery, video-poker, pbr, cigs, and porn.

Sell some sour milk at 4X like any good '7-11' on simpsons, lastly you need a korean or indian running the place, then its family and no wages or taxes ( employee ), no workers-comp, no nuttin.

Given that NWXC is mostly investment the stuff will default or rent eventually the quicky-mart is the way to go, renters love LOTTERY. Lots of Lottery.

Lottery profits will funnel back to Les-Schwab University of Tire-Rotation, and thus its win-win.

Anonymous said...

As for the NW Crossing store, the selection of hours of operation will be key. A lot of my milk runs are between 9pm and midnight. During the school year, I make some very early (5am-6am) runs because of breakfast or lunch-packing needs.

If I ever run over there and they aren't open, I may never think to try them again.

But I live in a nearby neighborhood, not in MW Crossing itself. For those in NW Crossing, there will probably be a lot of spontaneous purchases--popsicles for the kids, etc.

Anonymous said...

A lot of my milk runs are between 9pm and midnight. ... I may never think to try them again.
*
I agree with Duncan I wouldn't want my husband and/or wife working at midnight in a ghost-town. This place is going to be the destination resort of banditry.
Most likely it will be 10am-6pm, a family can only work 8hrs/day, and that leaves the other four when closed for paperwork and inventory.
Hire a kid for working 8pm-midnight, and first time an OLCC midget comes in and buys a six of pbr, and you get a $10k fine, and loss if liquor license, its game over.

Bend Economy Man said...

I didn't realize it was a bubble until I was at a party in Fall '05 and some woman INSISTED that I buy real estate immediately. She and her husband had just bought a duplex to flip and she was appalled that I had moved to town and not bought a house yet.

I believe she was offended that she had to share a party with someone less giddy about the prospects for Bend than she was.


Tim, that's EXACTLY why I started blogging. One too many backyard barbecues where one person derisively guffawed at another because he financed his new car through the car company rather than with a home-equity cashout. There was even one horse's ass who swore that home equity, not student loans, is the way to finance your kids' college tuition and expenses. One too many conversations about "did you hear how much the place on the corner sold for? And our place has an extra half-bathroom!"

It was the kind of atmosphere where even SUGGESTING that this might not go on forever was bound to get you a finger in the chest. Even as it became clear that the party was coming to an end, there were people who became offended--yes offended--at the suggestion that Bend real estate could ever drop in price, rather than "plateauing."

And while I feel for the regular Joes and Janes who got in over their heads in this, about those backyard barbecue blowhards I just think "fuck 'em." There are so many damn people who willfully shut people up, pointed fingers in chests, ignored facts and sense, and I for one have been enjoying my first summer BBQ season in a while, "new and improved with reduced real estate gloating!"

Anonymous said...

The more I think about this idea, the better I like it.

You come off phil's trail, hit the NWXC mini-mart for a six of PBR, and go straight to the junipers surrounding for a brew. The ONLY reason me and my homeless bud's haven't been camping up there more is that the brew is down near Drake or 14th. Having a quicky mart of cigs&brew up at NWXC is going make all that empty desert land into 'AAA' destination-resort homeless-camping.
YEA, I like it. One more post-child reason for marketing NWXC RE.

Anonymous said...

>>New press release from Tetherow, most interesting is they're still relying on 2005 growth rates

Of course they are. People LOVE to extrapolate growth rates into the future, even though those predictions almost never come true. People talk the MOST about these projections at the peaks, when they absolutely WON'T come true.

It's a problem of induction. Imagine you're part of a mold colony in a Petri jar. Your growth rate is phenomenal. You predict that in two weeks you'll outgrow the Petri dish and in two months you'll cover the entire surface of the world.

Given what you've seen so far, it's practically assured. And you bet a large sum on such an outcome. You make fun of Malthusians who predict doom.

But in two days, all the nutritious agar in the Petri dish is exhausted, and your colony suffers an "unforeseeable and unexpected" total collapse.

What a calamity.

That's Bend--planning growth based on a time when Bend houses were much more reasonable compared to its feeder markets.

What's the price to pay when your RE values go up faster than those of your feeder markets? Or faster than the other places your feeder markets feed into?

We shall see.

--TT

Anonymous said...

What's the price to pay when your RE values go up faster than those of your feeder markets?
We shall see.
--TT

Oh, this is the first time I laughed today, I love the analogy of an exhaustion of agar for the mold colony that was going to grow 30%/hour into perpetuity.

I feel its time to quote Mike Hollern,

We ain't got no real-people,
We ain't got no real-children
We ain't got no real-jobs.

I think on the last one Mike is calling it right, and NOTE big-mike is the man, who built NWXC.

We ain't got no agar, but we got lot's of petri-dishes.

So where are these chest-thumping RE tycoons today? Let's here some old follow-up success story's two years later, one year into the bubble collapse. Remember at the end of "Animal House", they told you where everyone ended up! Where are then now?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Just for fun, I googled up some industry averages....

I say again:

DUNCAN McGEARY FOR MAYOR!

This town is being run by people who want no part of the grubby little details of SURVIVING. Much like many of the amenity startups around here.

Amenity Government is what Bend has. Morons who don't like to muck around with Bus inspections, or the legal (and financial) implications of arbitrarily taking away developer water rights, or even letting affordable apt builders go condo w/o a single seconds thought.

Grubby Details are very UNROMANTIC, and hence about 1 in 100 amenity immigrants even think about them, but they are WHAT MAKES BUSINESS & GOVERNMENTS work. This romantic notion is probably how about 99.999% of all Bed & Breakfasts start...

"Oh honey, this is such a great place. We should start one..." Bye, bye 401K & All Free Time from then on...

Man, when I see someone go straight to the grubby financial details... I know they have the gumption to make something work...

Anonymous said...

On the sunny side of the news, the Bulletin today mentioned that about half the City Counselors seemed to have awoken from their stupor to question the Juniper Ridge deal.

Thank GOD. Shut that idiotic pipe dream down, please.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Imagine you're part of a mold colony in a Petri jar.

As my wife can attest, I DO NOT have to imagine this.

Similar to your example of extremely high growth rates being unsustainable for short terms, even "moderate" growth rates are NEVER sustainable for long periods. If you grew $1 at 2% from the time of Christ (if you believe that sort of thing), you'd have:

$182,198,470,000,000,000

or so. That's 182 QUADRILLION dollars, a sum quite a bit larger than this planets GDP, or thousands just like it. This is why civilizations bust. All will flame out & die.

Duncan McGeary said...

I had some friends who owned a 7/11 for awhile. It was a huge hassle to find employees who would work those hours for those wages who wouldn't also scratch off lottery tickets and sell to underage drinkers and pilfer.

If you get such an employee, you're lucky, especially if wages are higher in less stressful jobs.

So you're forced to work all the hours yourself, or to have limited hours, or to be constantly paranoid.

No quite the same as serving frozen yogurt to middle-class kids, which is probably the way they're imagining it.

Anonymous said...

the Bulletin today mentioned that about half the City Counselors seemed to have awoken from their stupor to question the Juniper Ridge deal.
*
Ah, Grasshopper, read the FINE-PRINT, I as the MOST of anyone in town would like to see Juniper-Ridge shit canned, but in the fine-print of the secret agreement, that nobody was allowed to see, until Bend Chamber of Commerce filed a lawsuit, ... Well what it says is that in event the city kills the project the Master Developer walks with $2.5Million-cash.

Note the basis of this is that MASTER-BLASTER KURATEK has put $75K of his own money into the deal. This deal was probably never going to go anywhere, but the simple fact that the City Council gauranteed Kurtek $2.5M whether he did any work or not, should go down as the greatest blunder of all time in Bend, of course what could a mother do?? It was a secret agreement, it violated Oregon Meeting laws, to quote BEM, welcome to Amenity-Government, where your every dream can be passed to the taxpayer.

Now I'm not pulling any of the above out of my ass, its all on the bendbubble.blogspot.com ( Juniper ridge, .. )

Anonymous said...

Here's a new Brook's Resource aka Mike Hollern Press Release. Subject matter NWXC.

New Tenants in NorthWest Crossing Neighborhood Center
August 14, 2007

Bend, Oregon - NorthWest Crossing today announced that the newest building in its Neighborhood Center will house several new companies. Anchor tenants Riley's Market, a neighborhood grocery, and Umpqua Community Bank, will occupy two of three street-level spaces along NW Crossing Drive. Upstairs office space in the same building is filled by: DMK Golf Designs, a golf course design firm; Cascade Mortgage; Monique Nebolon, DO, PC, psychiatrist; Exeros, computer software development; and RDS Designs and High Timber Construction, custom home design and building.

David Ford, general manager for NorthWest Crossing said, “When we began developing NorthWest Crossing, we promised that conveniences would be built into the neighborhood. All the companies that have joined us here have helped us to truly deliver on that promise. There is a buzz and excitement among our residents at having these additional amenities within walking distance of their homes.”

The commercial building that houses the new tenants has been registered for the LEED (Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design) Core and Shell Program. A Silver Designation is expected to be granted later this summer.

The new NorthWest Crossing tenants join other Neighborhood Center businesses Sage Café; Takara Treasures, gift shop; Healthy Paws, pet store; Portello Winecafé; and several others. Another new building on the southeast corner of Mt Washington Drive and NW Crossing Drive is being considered by several restaurant proprietors.

NorthWest Crossing is a mixed-use community on Bend's west side which was selected as the 2006 Most Successful Development in Oregon by BUILDERnews magazine and was also a 2006 featured project by the Urban Land Institute. West Bend Property Company LLC, a partnership of Brooks Resources Corporation and Tennant Family Limited Partnership, is developing the community. Both companies, based in Bend, have solid histories of commitment to thoughtful, quality real estate developments in Central Oregon. Their goal of creating a livable and sustainable community at NorthWest Crossing is rooted in their understanding and respect for the true essence of Bend and the Central Oregon lifestyle. To find out more, visit the NorthWest Crossing real estate website.

Anonymous said...

What's with the fires? Sandalwood last night and Awbrey Butte now.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Checked the inventory levels:

Residential in Bend 1,601 vs 1,604 on the 1st
Bend Res Acreage: 301 vs 297

Looks like we're peaking, but I still think the steep drop in inventory we got last year will not be repeated. It'll drop... just not as much. WAY too much Dark Matter out there now....

We're witnessing the slow demise of the monopoly of the MLS system...

Anonymous said...

We're witnessing the slow demise of the monopoly of the MLS system...
*
Another perspective sir IHTBYB, ...
Realtors aren't taking on losers, in a biz environ where survivors must work 4X,and make 1/4 of all time low in income, its time to focus on 10%, of the ol 90-10 rule, e.g. 10% of customers generate 90% of profits, 90% of customers are loses.

Let's take the buyer, if He doesn't have a down, you can show him all day long, and not make a nickel, cuz nobody loans 100% anymore period,

Let's take a seller, if he owes equal to market ASK, and has NO cash on the table to buy down closing, then run this deal will not close. Again goes to dark matter, this will be 50% of Bend, why should a house Realtor waste his fucking time?

I have been saying this for months, there is only one kind of seller, a guy that bought his house pre 2002, who can drop the price down to pre 2002 levels, that will sell. If they house can't sell, why bother?

Again, foolish joe then goes to FSBO pays his $300 for a sign and a listing, and there the flipper baits sits because ol joe took out a 100% loan in 2004.

Look at all the pic's in this blog-thread, indy's you never heard of, Southby's only takes on the real mcCoy, today in Bend all matter is from 2002 and later is dark matter, and soon I can seen NO legitimate RE-house taking it on, e.g. until default, then you'll see ol coldwell doing a ton of bankruptcy work, my buds who made the most money in RE in the early 80's in Oregon all did bankruptcy through Ben Franklin, made a fortune.

Anonymous said...

Is anyone else sick of craftsman houses? 15 years ago, I loved them. I'm starting to hate them now. Street after street of goddamned Craftsman homes. Brown craftsman. Beige craftsman. Gray craftsman.

In your ads, please stop telling me your damned house is "Craftsman." I know it is. It also has granite counters and loads of upgrades.

About now, a brick house would be mighty mighty. A colonial would snap my garter. A Victorian would rule Britannia.

Just shut up about your damned craftsman.

Bend Economy Man said...

Is anyone else sick of craftsman houses?

In 10 years a Craftsman house with wood floors, granite countertops and stainless-steel appliances will look like what a half-brick split-level ranch with shag carpeting, Formica countertops and avocado appliances looked like in the late '80s. As in, a relic of taste.

Anonymous said...

I am sick of the rustic lodge style with their fake painted textured walls, open beams, dark interiors, farm style sinks and distressed floors. Artisan, PacWest, Schumacher, Sun Forest come to mind as builders of these. To each his own I guess.

Anonymous said...

So Ray Kuratek get's $2.5 Million in cash from the city of Bend if they fail to complete Juniper-Ridge?

YUP

Why did the city ever agree to such a thing? Why did the city only even consider a UBS INTL banker as their master-developer? and developer? and project consultant? Whose idea was it to put in the $2.5M 'poison-pen'??

No wonder the deal was done in secret, and nobody was ever allowed to see the agreement.

The best part of all this is that UBS the international swiss bank that run's Bend was going to finance Juniper-Ridge, but when the Ray Kuratek was forced to be public by Bend Chamber of Commerce, with weeks UBS pulled financing, and there has never been another party since to come forward for the boondoggle.

The question is, was there ever an actual UBS guarantee? Or was it a just a promise by Kuratek? One thing is clear when UBS was publicly announced that it was going to be there money they publicly dis-engaged from the project.

My personal guess is that the city chose ray kuratek, because he promised financing for the boondoggle, and thus they guaranteed him a $2.5M finders-fee.

Why did the city want this so bad? It was the ultimate pump&dump, sell 1500 acres that cost 0.06cent/acre for $1.6M/acre. Thus the city was to make 60% of $240Million.

There is the magic finder's fee, Ray Kurtek gets 1% for putting the deal together, whether the deal happens or NOT.

Sweet, it doesn't get any sweeter. Can it ???

Anonymous said...

Talking about seeing coming, then there was one our own, the greatest seer of them all... David Foster

Bend Oregon Real Estate Market - 2006 - December

Bend Oregon real estate market and trends, 2006. ... but I can honestly say that I don't see a "bubble bursting, prices crashing" future for Bend. ...

www.davidfoster.biz/Market/ -

Anonymous said...

Now for some good news...

Debt Chairs On The Titanic

by Piers Fawkes in Finance & Money, Global Community

The slowly escalating “problem” in the subprime mortgage market based out of the United States seems to be slowly infecting wider and wider circles, creating a climate of fear not seen since 1997 - the year the Asian Financial Crisis dealt a massive blow to Asia’s developing economies. Except this time the tables are turned, and it seems to be America and Europe in for the sucker punch. Here are the contributing factors to a rapidly interlinking problem, which may or may not be creating a perfect storm, however brief:

1. US subprime mortgages meltdown, which has hurt the US housing market and overall lending.
2. Near collapse of the IKB - Germany’s industrial credit bank, which resulted in a €8.1 billion bailout and some raised eyebrows in Germany.
3. Hedge funds, highly leveraged on debt, going belly up because they can’t refinance debt. Australia, the US, Germany, France, and the UK all look to be affected.
4. Private equity firms who handled record buyouts are sitting on up to 40% debt for their acquisitions, which need to be serviced.
5. End of the yen carry trade - silent but deadly.
6. Rising adjustable rate mortgages in the US.
7. Big banks are seeing merger and acquisition activity frozen, resulting in a full stoppage of deals that were in progress, which can’t be good for bonuses.

Anonymous said...

It's worth mentioning that UBS is having a bit of a mini-heart attack at the moment, as well.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

In 10 years a Craftsman house with wood floors, granite countertops and stainless-steel appliances will look like what a half-brick split-level ranch with shag carpeting, Formica countertops and avocado appliances looked like in the late '80s.

Totally Flippin' Sweet!

Anonymous said...

In 10 years a Craftsman house with wood floors, granite countertops and stainless-steel appliances will look like what a half-brick split-level ranch with shag carpeting, Formica countertops and avocado appliances looked like in the late '80s. As in, a relic of taste.

Perhaps. As I have pointed out to my fashion maven wife, what is "in" now will inevitably, at some point, be "out", and what is "out" will inevitably come "back" and be "in". She's a child of the 80's and once thought 70's fashions were ridiculous, hilarious, etc. Now the closet is crammed with neo-hippy stuff.

The Craftsman style is now regarded as timeless, but chances are this will prove incorrect...

If so, what is the wave of the future regarding house architecture fashion? Medieval Castle? Retro modern? Or maybe Tuscany Pines is ahead of the curve?

Come on, you are willing to foretell a time when Craftsman will run its course and become passe, so please do tell- what will replace this style?

In our last (50 year-old ranch-style) house, we replaced Harvest Gold counters and appliances, ditched the baroque dark oak cabinets for natural maple Mission style ones, tossed all the brown glass lamps and chains, removed old wallpaper and repainted in Pottery Barn colors, and tore out all the shag carpet and refinished the pristine oak flooring underneath.

I joked about how in 10 years someone might see it and say "they took a perfect 70's vintage house and RUINED it!" I wonder if the time will come when that won't be regarded as a joke...

Anonymous said...

Not arson,


Awbrey Butte brushfire contained; cause found
Aug 14, 2007


A brush fire later traced to a construction crew's circular saw broke out Tuesday afternoon near the summit of Awbrey Butte, sending up a column of smoke and threatening more than a dozen homes in the area. Evacuations took place, but the fire was contained at almost four acres in less than 90 minutes.

The fire on Bend's Westside was reported around 1 p.m. Tuesday and sent tall flames leaping into the sky very close to homes, less than a day after a five-acre fire forced evacuations on the northeast side of Bend.

This time, evacuations took place near the fire's start along the 1000 block of Summit Drive as callers flooded Deschutes County 911 seeking information about the fire. Unconfirmed reports of homes burning turned out to be unfounded, though a home at 1031 Summit Dr. sustained about $3,000 in exterior damage.

"From Summit Drive and Promontory, they're going in a radius and evacuating people," a 911 dispatcher said.

The fire broke out iin the area of Summit Park, near Summit Drive and Wyeth Place, where 16 homes were threatened, said Bend Deputy Chief Gary Marshall.

No injuries were reported, and two local task forces were activated from the Redmond-Crooked River and Sisters/Black Butte/Camp Sherman areas.

For the second time in 24 hours, authorities were using "reverse 911" to call the phones of residents in a fire-hit area of Bend, as they did Monday evening in the Sandalwood subdivision.

The Red Cross set up an evacuation shelter at Summit High School; on Monday night, it was at Mtn. View High School. More than 30 people had checked in at Summit HS by late afternoon, with another rush expected as people get off work, said Kevin Doroski, executive director of the Oregon Mountain River Chapter of the Red Cross.

Traffic control was proving difficult as walkers and others streamed into the area. The affected homes remained evacuated into the late afternoon due to the amount of fire equipment and personnel on scene mopping up, Marshall said, noting that police were patrolling the area. The evacuees should be allowed to return home in the early evening.

Later, Marshall said investigators determined a construction crew building a new home at 633 NW Stonepine Dr. was using a gas-fueled circular saw to cut through metal rebar, which threw hot sparks into nearby brush.

The workers were unable to control the fire with gear on hand and it spread to the neighboring properties, he said.

Butte resident Dick Olson saw firefighters spraying the balcony of some homes, but apparently not needing to hose down the homes themselves. The deck of at least one home was damaged.

Some area residents left quickly, while others refused to do so.

"They tell me to get out, and he was really polite," said John Decker. "But it's my home, so arrest me - whatever."

Decker recalled watching the flames from the east Bend fire late Monday afternoon, "and thought, 'poor people' - and now it's in my own front yard.'

Officials urged that residents not call 911 unless absolutely necessary and also to stay away from the area to not impede fire crews' efforts.

Anonymous said...

"It has to Grow, Just like Bend, It just has to" I do have to admit that Sunriver Mall is sleazy, and that store with its rotting vegetables. LA-Pines workforce, SunRiver timeshare people. Sunriver is sleaze, the question is will a $30Million dollar face-lift job fix turn the sow into a silk?

Sunriver project takes shape
Plan for European-style village concerns some residents; others welcome it
By Anna Sowa / The Bulletin
Published: August 15. 2007 5:00AM

SUNRIVER — Around the Sunriver Village Mall on Tuesday morning, waves of people were filling the red-brick walkways as retailers busied themselves preparing for The Jeld-Wen Tradition golf tournament this weekend. At one end of the courtyard, a small group of Sunriver residents, business owners and developers discussed updated plans and concerns involving a multimillion-dollar project that would radically transform the aging commercial center into a magnet for new visitors and a destination for events.

The quarterly community forum was organized by the Sunriver Area Chamber of Commerce to update progress on the development, which won’t break ground for at least another year. The forum included a presentation from representatives of SilverStar Destinations LLC, the Bend-based development group that bought the 30-year-old mall last year for more than $26 million and plans to turn it into a European-style village akin to similar developments at Whistler Blackcomb, British Columbia, and the Village at Northstar near North Lake Tahoe.

Such destination resorts often have a European Alps feel with stylish shops and restaurants on the ground level and high-end residences on upper floors.

With 90,000 to 120,000 square feet of commercial space and 500 to 600 condos and townhomes, the purpose of the Sunriver project is to create a destination where tourists and residents can wander the village and dine, shop, play and sleep.

Its name: the Village at Sunriver.

The village has been a divisive issue among Sunriver residents — with some resisting change, some welcoming it and others leery about the proposed development’s viability. In years past, similar grand projects have been proposed that never materialized.

Maryanne Phillips and her husband bought their first property in Sunriver in 1977, moving here permanently in the 1980s.

“It has to change,” she said after SilverStar’s presentation. “We have to grow.”

Beside her, George Bayless agreed. Bayless has a vacation home in Sunriver and said the Sunriver Village Mall was one reason he chose to buy a home here instead of elsewhere in Central Oregon.

“It was more active,” he said. “It was a concentrating point for people.”

Before SilverStar can break ground on the 28-acre site, it must go through public hearings and apply for zone changes and building permits.

The developers have filed their land use application with Deschutes County to create a new zone, which they expect will be adopted in the next three months.

At the earliest, construction would start in summer 2008 with the first phase completed 18 months to two years later.

“If it opens for business at Christmastime 2009, that’s a win,” said John Goodman, lead principal in SilverStar.

Goodman revealed the latest version of an evolving site plan for the village, including the first phase’s six commercial and mixed-use buildings, two to five stories high.

The village would be bordered by Abbot Drive to the south and west and Beaver Drive to the east, and a two-way street would run through the center, which can be partially closed off for pedestrian use for events or seasonally.

“For the majority of the year in Sunriver, as business owners are painfully aware, the mall is not full all the time,” Goodman said. “Businesses in Sunriver will be most successful if, in the offseason, we bring business to their door.”

The two southernmost buildings in the village would be all commercial space, with a new grocery store and offices. This space is likely to get built first, Goodman said.

Any retailers there now will have to move from their buildings during construction, with the potential of relocating into new space once construction is done, Goodman said, adding that he expects the final tenant mix will include a combination of existing and new tenants.

Many homeowners at the forum expressed concern about parking issues. Goodman assured them he’s working with the homeowners association to meet the area’s needs and added that street parking will be available around the mall. Employees will have off-site parking, he said.

Goodman said he’s still working on how to accommodate the already busy bike paths and doesn’t expect the new development to adversely affect Sunriver utilities.

The village would have two plazas on either end of the development, with the south end featuring a multilevel outdoor plaza that would likely feature some type of water element.

Along the periphery of the village would be townhome neighborhoods, Goodman said, which will be close enough to the retail core to stimulate business activity but have a different type of residential living style than the mixed-use condos.

“It is impossible to make this work without the residential part to it,” Goodman said of making the village profitable. “The more (housing) units we have, it eases the pain of paying a whole lot more for this property than we should have.”

A few audience members chuckled at Goodman’s comment. His development group — made up of local investors — bought the mall for more than $26 million, according to records, deeds and mortgages on file at the Deschutes County Clerk’s Office. Goodman has said the development costs will exceed $100 million.

Goodman expects the condos in the village’s core to be priced starting “in the $300,000s” for the smallest units. To accommodate the influx of new residents, the village ground will be elevated so underground parking is available.

Some audience members expressed concerns about the village — notably the absence of a community center, which was part of the original plans. They worried that the new village would have no reason for existing residents to make daily visits.

“We expect to offer a contract post office, public gathering area and fantastic and open public facilities for people to spend time in,” he said. “Things will be new, and hopefully with vibrant, successful businesses operating in every space throughout the village, we will be providing options for residents and visitors.”

Anonymous said...

I know that BEM, IHTBYB have no opinions of their own, and will generally only discuss their like and dislike of Craftsmen Homes. If Duncan's around, most likely he'll answer the question, as he has the ability to think deeper than 70's vs 90's remodeling.

Here are two questions I would like answered.

1.) Will Mrs. Breeze and her condo-Ho pardners get bailed out by the city? Will the go through with subsidizing the conversion of yesterday's Breeze-ways to tomorrows affordable apartments?

2.) We have all long concurred that Juniper-Ridge is DOA, but will Ray Kuratek get his $2.5Million cash 'poison-pen' if the city nixes the deal? That is an awful lot of money for a city teetering on bankruptcy.

Anonymous said...

More questions for today ...

1.) Will Mike Hollern ever find real people for Bend?

2.) Will Mike Hollern ever find real children for Bend?

3.) Will Mike Hollern ever find real jobs for Bend?

4.) Will Bend ever be 'real' or will it continue to destination resort ( timeshare ) for non-place bound HELOC people?

bendbutt said...

The below was on craigs-list, it looks like I'll finally be able to own a home of my own in Bend. Perhaps after I make the purchase you guys can show me how to get a HELOC? I'm tired of being a renter, and having trailer-trash thumping my chest. I'm soon going to be an owner. I'm going to 'be somebody' in Bend. I'll be right up their with Mrs. Dubois & Breeze, and Hollern.

$10000 Owner Will Carry, Small Down, Mobile Home in Park

Reply to: hous-397412455@craigslist.org
Date: 2007-08-14, 10:52PM PDT

Owner will carry, flexible terms with small down payment. Several Mobile homes already set up in nice parks available. All less than $10,000. Call for more information. 350-1942. If I miss your call please leave a message with your name and number and I will return your call promptly.

Anonymous said...

“For the majority of the year in Sunriver, as business owners are painfully aware, the mall is not full all the time,” Goodman said. “Businesses in Sunriver will be most successful if, in the offseason, we bring business to their door.”
*
Hear that Duncan the powers-that-be are going to bring business to your door!

Let's see car-shows, porn-festivals, motor-cycle rallys, oh ya RV rallys, they'll all be in front of your door.

The majority of central-oregon 'resort' town businesses know we're a shoulder-economy, its pretty scary when a developer and/or city tells you, NOT ASKS you if they can 'solve' your problem.

This is a classic "Hide your checkbook" moment.

It's all the same people DVA, PR, ... UBS, I think that we have harped enough here on this July,August,December issue that some smart person, e.g. developer/politician has a solution. Didn't take them long, problem is that the resort biz in central-oregon has always been this way.

The only thing I can imagine that the great boon-dogglers could be thinking is a $100Million convention center, that will get real people to come, and that then they're breed real children, oh yea real-jobs, sell coke at the convention center to the folks attending the porn-festival.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

bought the 30-year-old mall last year for more than $26 million and plans to turn it into a European-style village akin to similar developments at Whistler Blackcomb, British Columbia, and the Village at Northstar near North Lake Tahoe.

See... at Blackcomb & Tahoe, there is this thing. It's called:

SOMETHING TO DO

There's NOTHING to do at Sunriver. Maybe play a few rounds of golf, but there are like 4,000,000 golf courses around here.

Wow, people & their financiers have imbibed lifetime supplies of Kool-Aid around here. That little mall is dead cuz people would rather commute once a week to Bend ANYWAY, and get it done then. Go to Costco on the weekend: You'll see Burns commuters driving 130 MILES to stock up. Sunriver types have 1/10th that commute.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

From Marketwatch:


THE GURU'S CORNER
Only panic is left

Commentary: Time to fix the roof of your financial house

By Harry Schultz, International Harry Schultz Letter
Last Update: 11:57 AM ET Aug 15, 2007

MONTE CARLO, Monaco (IHSL) -- For years, greed has been the underlying force in the markets. Now fear is replacing it.
Once underway, fear is an even stronger force. While central banks try to hose down the market's fear-flames with money, it doesn't change the liquidity problem. Lenders fear to lend and borrowers fear to borrow. Money "in the system" is of no real help. Someone has to borrow it. Who will?

We're back to being unable to push a string. We're into the very early beginnings of the unwinding of the derivatives hurricane long forecast by Jim Sinclair (jsmineset.com) and myself.
Only the innocent will fall for the line that two failed funds from Bear Sterns

Bear Sterns and one European bank fund were the only real problem, which caused the main central banks to massively push money into play, and repeat it and repeat it.
Shallow thinking. Into play they hope. The money just sits there waiting, hoping, to be used.
The modern financial world runs on credit, so if fear rises to a level where fewer are willing to lend -- and fewer are brave enough to borrow -- the situation can get a lot worse before it starts improving. In my opinion, we've entered that twilight zone and it will get worse and we'll see a torrent of foreclosures over next 12 to 24 months. The "other shoe" will be falling for a long time, so investors should stop waiting for the markets to "calm down." Instead, they should fix the roof of their financial houses.
Among things to do:

1. Assume the worst scenario is possible and plan for it. If it doesn't reach that stage, you won't have lost traction but bought yourself peace of mind and financial insurance.
2. If you own the high yield currencies (I do), switch partially to low yielders for now. My favorite is the Swiss franc. Pays near zero interest but chart is bullish, so should give you capital gain. See currencies.
3. Worry about banks (all of them). Time deposits, even current accounts, in Europe, U.S., Canada and Asia banks are at risk if the bank goes under or takes a "bank holiday" (1933). The only things safe from bankruptcy to keep in a bank are: gold bullion (if in your own safe box), stocks and bonds. Stocks and bonds are kept in safe custody accounts so they are ok if your bank tanks.
4. Cut your stock positions down if you are too heavy there and/or use stops. Hold mainly oil, natural gas, base metals and precious metals. In general stocks, stay with big, big caps.
5. Reduce your U.S. dollars to near zero on the present rally, which should move up (on the U.S. Dollar Index) to 83 before topping.

There is much more to say but no time remains to say it. I close with this: From fear we're morphing into panic.
The able George Magnus of UBS says the "Minsky moment" is coming, when credit dries up even to sound borrowers. Only panic is left.
I hope this scares you into doing something, even though it most certainly won't be enough. Bon chance. Good luck.

Uncle Harry

Harry Schultz has been writing The International Harry Schultz Letter for 42 years, making it one of the three oldest private investment newsletters.

dartagnan said...

I'm disappointed that you continue to capitalize the word "realtor." The real estate industry came up with this gimmick a number of years ago to try to elevate their racket to the status of a profession. We don't capitalize Doctor or Dentist or Lawyer or Molecular Biologist, so why the hell should we go along with the PR gambit and capitalize "realtor"?

City of Bend said...

We don't capitalize Doctor or Dentist or Lawyer or Molecular Biologist, so why the hell should we go along with the PR gambit and capitalize "Realtor"?

1.) Because the spell checker says so.

2.) Because these are our Most Beautiful people in Bend

3.) It is illegal to denigrate Lawyers or Realtors, and use of lower-case prefixing is a blatant example of denigration.

BCC 5.25 ( Bend City Code )

Anonymous said...

That little mall is dead cuz people would rather commute once a week to Bend ANYWAY, and get it done then. Go to Costco on the weekend:
*
There is NO shame in Sunriver, last time I was at the store all the food had black mold in the vege section, the meat was brown.

The tellers were all visible LA-PINE meth addicts.

The only customers were time-share people who own 1/1,000,000 of the condo units, with their brats running in the aisles.

Yes, anyone that lives in Sunriver drives to Bend.

It will take MORE than money to fix the SunRiver Mall it will take a complete bull-dozing. The place has always been DEAD, and what you expect its Leisure World, and now that old folks have lost pensions, and 10%/yr is OVER, there is going to be very little disposable income in Sun River.

The MOST interesting part of this report is that they now admit that SunRiver has Morphed into a city, a Little J.D. Gray exemption resort to build in prime Oregon, and use the resort as an excuse to build, is NOW a city. What they want to do is turn it into a REAL MALL.

It used to be said ALL oregon resorts are just an excuse to get around UGB to build a sub-division, now it can be said they're really an excuse to build a city.

Both sunriver and black-butte (hollern) are citys in pristine wilderness.

Anonymous said...

>>I'm disappointed that you continue to capitalize the word "realtor."

Even capitalized, it's wrong. You really need all caps with the registered trademark symbol after it to be kosher.

Say it with me...REALTOR®.

dartagnan said...

"It used to be said ALL oregon resorts are just an excuse to get around UGB to build a sub-division ..."

Duh, no shit.

I had never heard the term "destination resort" until I moved to Oregon; I don't think such anomalies exist in any other state.

The "destination resort" exemption is a yawning loophole in this state's land use regulations and should be closed, but the lege will never have the balls to do it.

bubblebutt said...

How do you spell "AHM", Months and Months ago I speculated that only CASH deals would buy you a house. We can't say this rumor is true, but it's what I have predicted that NOBODY is going to invest in MTG-BONDS until the smoke clears ( 1-1/2 years ), and 'AAA' once again means something. CW is #1 like Bear, and if #1 can't get money nobody can, a good company, very picky, they have been cleaning house like made since February, yet they still have been told 'NO MONEY". They claim to have ton's of cash, but I think that when thats gone, and they cannot finance new deals, and they obviously cannot bring NEW-CASH in, that they'll have no choice but to SHUTTER. Its going to be quick.
Like I said last week watch country-wide and wash-mu very carefully, and there is our Bend Bubble enable "Wells-Fargo", let's not even go there, ...

Countrywide tumbles 19% on financing rumors
Shares of the mortgage lender slide on rumors that the company cannot raise money in the commercial paper market.

August 15 2007: 3:12 PM EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Shares of Countrywide Financial Corp. dropped as much as 19 percent Wednesday on market rumors the mortgage company has been unable to raise money from the commercial paper market.

Anonymous said...

The "destination resort" exemption is a yawning loophole in this state's land use regulations and should be closed, but the lege will never have the balls to do it. - darta
*
Short history lesson ,
Our own Boss-HOGG-HOLLERN, the largest employer in Bend ( Brooks Resources ) best know for sub-division PIG of all time NWXC. Back in the 60's and 70's boss-hogg-hollern, and j.d. Gray two LOGGERS personally wrote the BOOK and got SB100 passed by republican TomMcCall. It was NEVER about environment, its about two things...

1.) Enable destination resorts ( boss hogg hollern - black butte & J.D. Gray - Sunriver )
2.) Tax exemption on ALL forest land in Oregon.

How sweet??

Now what were you saying about leges? Hell Logging interests wrote the book (LCDC-GRAY) and the law. It never was and never did get seriously enabled in central-oregon.

Today thanks to UGB ( SB100 ) LCDC, boss-hogg-hollern is the richest man in central oregon, and the largest employer in Bend.

Lastly, NO FUCK LOOPHOLE, I repeat the MEN who created the fucking UGB were the KING of the resort BIZ, J.D. Gray went on to do Salishan at the coast. You have to understand that back in the 1960's logging WAS OREGON.

Nobody, is going to change SB100, because the carrot tax exemption for farm&forest is now so deeply embraced like all subsidies that it has its own fucking Newtonian momentum.
Oregon is different,damn right its different, in no other state were a couple of rich logging boys able to BUY a whole fucking state for pennys on the dollar and create a legacy.
To this day what is good for Boss-Hogg-Hollern is good for Bend. That includes the pig-in-makeup NWXC, his latest love-child.

Anonymous said...

I don't believe Brooks Resources is the biggest employer in Bend, or anywhere close to it. And as a developer it's small potatoes compared to Jeld-Wen.

dartagnan said...

This is interesting and maybe significant: I just got a postcard from a broker at Steve Scott asking (begging?) me to tell her if I knew anybody who might be interested in buying a house she has listed.

Over the years I've gotten plenty of cards and letters and phone calls from brokers asking if they could list my house, but never one asking me to help them sell one. Can I claim a finder's fee if I do it, I wonder? Hmmm ...

Anonymous said...

>>I don't believe Brooks Resources is the biggest employer in Bend, or anywhere close to it.

Of course not. St. Charles is the biggest local employer.

Anonymous said...

You need anger management courses... if you are so obsessed with the house prices in Bend you should either leave or find a new hobby. Frankly in my opinion the lower they go the better... finally soon I'll be able to afford a house here.

Anonymous said...

Could be that the NWX park was empty cause it was lunch time.

Anonymous said...

Could be that the NWX park was empty cause it was lunch time.
*
Blood sucking vampires is what I have heard. I live near there, never seen anyone out during day. Especially their young.

I heard that the little blood-sucking parasites ( what hollern calls non-real-children ) come out at night to play, e.g. suck blood from chipmunks.

It's not really clear how this vampire spawn evolved, or why the vampires chose Bend Oregon to colonize, or why NWXC?


They say that NWXC is full of them, you wouldn't know it by day, they say that night is when they're out, but I have not known anyone to venture there after dark.


FYI A vampires is a mythical creature who overcomes death by sucking the blood from living humans. The most common variation of the vampire in the USA is in Bend, Oregon. See Transylvania.

Anonymous said...

Brooks Resources is the biggest employer in Bend, or anywhere close to it.



* The Man Hollern ( just like wizard of Oz ) the Man behind the Screen owns/controls most of central Oregon, other than Tire-Flipping.

Hollern, who has led Brooks Resources, the region’s largest development company, since its founding, said he also sees a bright future for real estate here over the next 20 years, although he also sees pain coming in the short term.

There are 100's of holding companys in Central Oregon owned by Brooks Resources ( Hollern ) even NWXC is not in the name of Brooks, but its own LLC,

Brooks Resources Corporation
- www.brooksresources.com
409 Franklin Avenue, Bend - (541) 382-1662
Directions and more »


Brooks Resources Realty
- maps.google.com
19717 Mount Bachelor Dr, Bend - (541) 322-1265
Directions and more »


Brooks Resources Realty: Main Office
- www.brooksresourcesrealty.com
3052 NW Merchant Way # 100, Bend - (541) 318-8002
Directions and more


The below are all there own company's.

Central Oregon real estate developer Brooks Resources Corporation has created some of Central Oregon's most recognizable real estate communities, including NorthWest Crossing, North Rim, RiverWild, Awbrey Butte, Awbrey Glen, and Mount Bachelor Village Resort, as well as IronHorse in Prineville and Yarrow in Madras, our two newest real estate developments.

Anonymous said...

This is interesting and maybe significant: I just got a postcard from a broker at Steve Scott asking (begging?) me to tell her if I knew anybody who might be interested in buying a house she has listed.
*
That's interesting, but quite pointless, you now have to have a down payment.

There are ton's of buyers out there, but nobody has a down payment.

The 0% down is gone, I repeat you can now no longer obtain a zero down loan.

80%+ of ALL buyers couldn't buy even if they wanted to.

What your Realtor should be asking for is a Buyer, who happens to be sitting on $100k cash, looking for a nice little $500k home.

There are VERY FEW such animals alive in Bend.

Anonymous said...

Brooks is a bank, they have their own mortgage company, its endless, Drive around anywhere in Central Oregon and look and you'll see 'Brooks' on every building.

They have their investment company giving financial advice and brokerage to other rich people.

*
Brooks Financial Advisors -
www.brooksfinancial.org/

Bend Mortgage - Brooks Resources Mortgage Services Offers Great ...

With nearly 100 years of history to its name in the community, the Brooks Resources family of businesses really understands what Bend and Central Oregon are ...

www.brooksresourcesmortgage.com

Anonymous said...

Then there's West Bend Property Company, ... one of the 100's of Hollern/Brook's fronts in Central-Oregon....

"moderate brokers of a rigorous public conversation", e.g. we're going to shove NWXC down your ass, and your going to like it

The Bend 'round-abouts' came from Team-Hollern.

****

Bend’s explosive growth was not without its share of detractors. Many residents, alarmed at the rapid pace of the city’s expansion and increasing traffic congestion, pushed city planners and politicians to consider a moratorium on growth. Sensing that such a moratorium would challenge plans for their property, West Bend Property Company partners Mike Hollern, Kirk Schueler, and Mike Tennant became moderate brokers of a rigorous public conversation and active proponents of good civic design, sponsoring charrettes for challenging public projects (such as a new bridge crossing the Deschutes River), hosting Building a Better Bend lectures featuring national smart growth personalities, assisting with the expansion of the High Desert Museum, and locating their offices close to the city’s historic downtown in a renovated convent.

http://www.terrain.org/unsprawl/18/

Mayor Abernethy said...

DOWNTOWN BEND DECLARED COMPLETELY FUCKING DEAD

This Obituary was written on the account of the demise of our legacy eatery Hans.

Soon Marz will be gone, then Mondo's, Merenda hasn't long, its too big.

Downtown will be all franchises. Big names who can afford to lose money and have presence in a resort town.

Soon there will be a new area, perhaps East-Side, certainly NOT HWY20 & SE27th, arghh Long-Board why did you put your eastside in that shit-hole strip mall?

I really feel that the old Division Island that is now trapped north of Revere might become the hip place to eat good food for cheap. It's NOT going to be I-97, aka Third.

Downtown is finished, its only going to be condo-sales, time-share sales, golf resorts sales, and Tetherow sales, and Red Robin, Starbucks, and name brand outlet stores. Every storefront downtown will be hustling one of Bend 24 resort golf course's.

Even the tourists will not want to spend more than a few moments in the new Bend. Too much like where they came from Olive-Garden, Walmart, Costco, and Target.

Out of State REITS bought all the property, and raised the rent in order to make payments on their outrageous purchase. Today 'commercial property' is hot, thus insane quantities of money are thrown at any fund that say's "commercial" Times will soon change. Today Condo's and Apartments are dead.

It's ok, these days the only thing downtown has going for it is Mondo, and Silver Moon. Both will most likely have to move soon.

The tourist biz will drop, 24+ golf courses, high pressure sales. Locals will not go to DEEP more than once or its clones. Lots jobs, collapsing real estate values, very few locals can dump $100/night out per person.

There's always Parilla, Long-Board, Taco-Shack,... good little hood's that will not be noticed by the REITS for a long time, if ever. Perhaps Galveston will be the next restaurant-row, but it certainly will not be downtown.

Good places require cheap-rent, so the owner can focus on food, rather than paying the rent.

It's all so strange, people used to come to Bend to stay in Hotels like City-Center, ... walk around downtown after a day skiing, now its all high-end, expensive, franchise clone, taste-less. Gone are the days of staying in downtown, and achoring your auto for the eve, having a brew at Deschutes, going out for dinner at Hans. Now its going to be stay at your 'resort' what will be the point of going to downtown Bend?

We still have Newport Market while it can survive, we'll cook at home. There are a few other good produce places in Bend.

There is light at the end of the tunnel. The trend these days in PDX is that on empty corners the landlord is renting out to roach-coaches. See Hawthorne & SE 12 on next visit, 1/2 dozen roach coaches all surviving AWESOME FOOD for cheap. This is the future, this is where Bend should be going, and smart entrepreneurs. Work 4-6 hours day, stay busy, make your money, serve good food to the public, keep your expenses low, and go bike/ski/hike the rest of the time. No point anymore in paying $4k/mo for rent in a 150sq-ft frontage, when you can pay $100/mo for a place to park a coach. Spend the difference on food product, blow your customers away, and make a tidy profit.

Downtown Bend destroyed itself in the name of Greed, soon not even the tourists will hang downtown, no matter what sordid event promoted. The Source will try and try to promote strange and un-eventful events, but nobody will come. Soon even First Friday will have no meaning, as even the gallery's cannot pay the escalating rent. If First Friday continues, will tourists really just go from time-share sales office to another time-share sales office to look at pretty pictures of one of Bend 24+ Golf Resorts??

In time like PDX Bend will have little areas of roach coaches, and out of them will become the next great Hans, Super-Burrito, Mondo, in time even the tourists will find these places. Then the GREEDY east-coast REITS will offer a million bucks for an empty lot, and charge the roach-coaches a fortune to park, ... The game is endless, but with roach-coaches like gypsies you just move down the block.

Anonymous said...

Army Suicides Highest in 26 Years
ABC News - 1 hour ago
---------------------------------

At least there is good news on the battle front.

When US life becomes as worthless as Arab life, perhaps we can then recruit 'western suicide' bombers.

Anonymous said...

This is all part of that FED program the last few days of dumping 10-50Billion per day into the banks, and telling them to make loans available to the MTG-BANKS. You can NO longer sell paper bonds, they're worthless, and its going to get worse in 45 days when granny finds out her pension is gone. Right now Country-Wide must secure short term FED money from banks to finance RE deals, this cannot last. That said it is estimated to take 1-1/2 years to 'fix' the problem. Very likely only CASH RE deals will flip for the next few years, which for those THAT MUST sell means complete collapse of price.

Aug. 16, 2007, 8:38AM
Countrywide borrows $11.5B from 40 banks
By STEPHEN BERNARD AP Business

NEW YORK — The nation's largest mortgage lender borrowed $11.5 billion from a group of 40 banks to fund loans, in a move that shows just how deep the lending crisis has become.

Countrywide Financial Corp. said Thursday it made the move amid a credit crunch that has driven a number of its smaller peers to bankruptcy. Shares opened down more than 12 percent.

NWXC VAMPIRE PARK said...

Forget about Redmonds water slide, Bend now has its own theme park right near town. It's not clear whether it will be operated by day or night.

Bend's Northwest Crossing to Become Tourist Destination: Vampires in Bend

By Kurt Holland / The Bulletin
Published: August 16. 2007 5:00AM PST

Blood sucking vampires is what I have heard. I live near there, never seen anyone out during day. Especially their young.

I heard that the little blood-sucking parasites ( what hollern calls non-real-children ) come out at night to play, e.g. suck blood from chipmunks.

It's not really clear how this vampire spawn evolved, or why the vampires chose Bend Oregon to colonize, or why NWXC?


They say that NWXC is full of them, you wouldn't know it by day, they say that night is when they're out, but I have not known anyone to venture there after dark.


FYI A vampires is a mythical creature who overcomes death by sucking the blood from living humans. The most common variation of the vampire in the USA is in Bend, Oregon. See Transylvania.

Bend Destination Resort said...

Demise of Bend said...

That is the point of "Newport Market", and all our little Bend hippy produce stores.

You can get good butter, brought over the hill from Eugene or Tillamook.

Like I said the only thing now downtown for me is Mondo and Silver-Moon, Mondo will soon get bumped, as their will be DEEP clones pushing them out.

It's sad, but the process MUST happen, the people who run Bend have all their money in Condo's, and the city only exists to market those condo's. Thus its natural that downtown become just one large sleazy condo sales office for downtown-condos, and condo golf resorts.

Let them EAT GOLF BALLS.

The rest of us will be in little hoods like where Taco-Shack is-is, we'll ride our bikes, we know,

The Source will continue to market, and push insipid, sordid, revolting events on a daily basis, only for the tourists. Soon the only tourists will be RV people.

Yes, Americans love Olive-Garden, Chucky-Cheese, but that is NOT what makes the 'The DEEP' work, and that is NOT what brings tourists to Bend. Every season July/August the tourists bring 1/2Billion dollars in cash to the area. When the word, by word of mouth gets out that Bend sucks, they'll simply go to Hawaii, or Aspen, ... Moab, Sedona,

Downtown Bend has supremely fucked itself like no little shitty I have seen. My personal opinion is that Brooks Resources has ran the town since the 1960's, and now they sow what they reap. Recently Mr. Brooks ( Hollern ) complained that Bend had no Real-Children, Real-People, or Real-Jobs. Yes, this is true, but this is Hollern-Ville, this place was created by his guiding hand. He oversaw Black-Butte 30+ years ago, he saw where the tourist destination gig led.

Today we're there, just a whole lot of minimum wage whores chasing tips. No doubt the children not-real, as both parents are working two jobs.

In the meantime the Brooks family continues to live the christ-like lifestyle and guide the city off the cliff.

Anonymous said...

There is never an appropriate time to use the language you've used in this post.

*

The language is essential. Oregon is a plantation colony, always has been. Brooks-Scanlon have ran Bend, Oregon as a plantation colony for almost 100 years.

This is NOT an offense to black people for they know the gig. This is meant to be an offense to get rich quick white folk that attempt to imitate the plantation bosses that run Bend, Oregon.

Lastly, if you can't stand the heat stay out of the kitchen, and I might add go fuck yourself and your political correction. Where the fuck were you when Brooks Resources destroyed the Deschutes River Corridor? Where was your fucking net-nanny political correctness when Bend was sold to the highest REIT national bidder?

This is a war, and war is never pretty, nor appropriate. The battle is to save what is left of Bend. When the war is over come forward, and we'll make you the Orwellian Word Smith.

The apt analogy of house-niggers and field-niggers is well known to the working class, going all the way back to the Great Depression. If it offends you then it means that your either a silver-spoon candy ass, or a plantation owners spawn.

Juniper Ridge Master Blaster said...

Note below, that for $75k Kuratek get's back $2.5M even if the Juniper Ridge project never see's the light of day. We call this heads-I-win, tails-you-lose.

www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/docs/IS_MOU_JR.pdf

Budgetary Considerations:

Paragraph 11.5 would obligate the City to reimburse the developer and investor for as much as 75 percent of their master planning and related costs, to a maximum of $2.5 million. This is a reasonable amount in proportion to the cost and value of the development being master planned and to the developer’s and investor’s related risk of $833,000.

I love Bend, where out of State hustlers, can come in and make $1M/yr doing what they want, and just passing the bill to the city without risk.

"heads-I-win, tails-you-lose"

Ray Kuratek has NO risk, he can only make money, what a deal, what an un-heard opportunity. These kinds of deals make our city-council into either morons or cronys, either of which is NOT a good thing for the taxpayer.

Anonymous said...

How many homes were built after 2002? It certainly seems to me to be thousands? - bendbust

That's right Bendbust there were thousands built, not the "tens of thousands" BS you previously posted. - RE HO

*

I was doing some research last night on the net on Brooks Holding's in Madras and Prineville.

What I found was interesting in Prineville alone Brooks has almost 4,000 open building permits on file during the most recent cycle. Remember what we learned a few months ago from Prineville builders, 80% of all Prineville homes were bought on speculation, 27 years of known inventory currently has been built.

Given activity of similar nature in Madras ( Ashwood, Sic ), Redmond, ... dozens of little places in Central Oregon, I can easily extrapolate that Brooks alone could have produced +10K homes in the area in the last few years, perhaps even +20K, given that there are dozens of shell companys it will take years to accomplish the autopsy.

Getting out of the UGB, the great majority of ALL bend area destination resorts are Brooks. All little city's of the future. Dozens of little plantation colony's all being built for tomorrows plantation bosses.

City Management said...

What's the bill?

On the behalf of "infrastructure first", I think I'll ask a rhetorical question. Note I'm not affiliated, but they do ask interesting questions of the citizenry.

Given that perhaps 20K Brooks Homes have been built in the area of central oregon, or as I defined their foundations poured, as IHTBYB's pic's show most of these will never be completed.

Given that actual average infrastructure cost was $60k/house and through lobbying and deferral Brooks got away with an average $12K SDC per house ( service development charge ), lets call the difference $50k. $50k times 20K is $100 million dollars, that would just barely pay 10% of the known infrastructure cost to date of the houses built in the Bend area.

Certainly Brooks cannot defer any longer and assume that someone else is going to pickup the bill the building boom is over, and now its time to pay the clean-up cost. Brooks Bill $100Million.

Then there is the NEXT move Skyline-Park are west of NWXC from Bend to Sisters 33,000 acres and Brooks wants tracts and subdivisions out there. City Hall is already fast trying to justify the outcome.

The sum total of all the other developer's in the area probably isn't more than 2X of Brooks, I really don't have a feel for HOW MANY homes have been built ( foundations poured ). But even if ALL the homes developers were required to fork over the $50k it still wouldn't total the $1billion just for the Bend area.

If central Oregon continues to build, we had better fund at least $10Billion for infrastructure ( sewage, water, storm-water, and roads ). This is big money. It's clear the REAL COST may be as high as $200k per home, this is close to what Willsonville is charging the rich, well almost.

In summary while Bend would like to be a rich nouveau tourist area it is not, it is full of developers/buyers who want something for nothing, on the other hand Wilsonville really is a city of the rich, and they're more than glad to pay the actual cost.

Thus who are the real rich? Wilsonville will never have to wallow in their own shit. Very soon Bend will be wallowing in shit, parked in traffic, and without drinking water.

Anonymous said...

$50k times 20K is $100 million dollars, that would just barely pay 10% of the known infrastructure cost to date of the houses built in the Bend area.
*
Whoops $50k times 20k is 1,000 million, thus theres our Billion dollars the amount of money required to date to fix just the infrastructure problems of the Bend area.

Anonymous said...

Now who is going to pay the other $9 billion for the rest of central-oregon?

One last point, in Bend we're short of a billion dollars in infrastructure, so where did the money go? Did it really go to the purchaser? Did they really get the house cheap?

Or did Brooks make the Billion Dollars? Perhaps if the COUNTY/CITY had required correct SDC's in the first place none of the garbage would have been built??

Perhaps this is what makes Wilsonville smart,and the rich get richer, and wilsonville will always be a place of the rich, and Central-Oregon will always be a washed out old logging plantation colony of debtors.

dartagnan said...

"Downtown will be all franchises. Big names who can afford to lose money and have presence in a resort town."

The franchises seem to have all moved into the Old Mill District. The only national franchise or chain business I'm aware of in downtown is Starbucks. TCYB had a shop at Oregon and Wall for a while but it folded.

Rather than franchises, I see the downtown Bend of the future being occupied by precious little boutique-y businesses and pretentious restaurants. Some of these will be "hobby businesses" and some will be tax dodges. Most will not be able to cover their nut and will fold after a few years, but the landlords will always find new suckers to rent to.

Anonymous said...

The franchises seem to have all moved into the Old Mill District. The only national franchise or chain business I'm aware of in downtown is Starbuck.

*

I agree, but only time will tell. The company-franchises can afford to lose money on presence. I think your giving little bo-peep who wants to open a gallery a little too much credit, her hubby isn't going to let her open a gallery given their funds are hosed. Even Bends trophy wives are going to have to downsize, a lot of Wall-Street money is going to be lost, and this one is going to be bigger than DOT-CON.

Yes, the Old-Mill was sold cheap to major anchors, but now that the cheer leader has left for Tetherow the good deals are over. No need to have loss leader anchor.

You don't see the major corporate franchises, and I don't see bo-beep hobby gallery, ... One thing is certain you have to sell a lot of lattes to pay for a $6,000 lease on a 150sq-ft store, over 30+/day just to pay the rent.

Well then there's the condo time-shares, and tetherow,... but they only need to have a downtown office until the stuff sells.

I don't think the DEEP model will go far, given our shoulder economy it doesn't make sense to have dozens of tourist restaurants on the high end for the july,aug,&dec market. Locals sure and the hell will NOT hang out.

Given that much of downtown was bought by major REITS including Walmart itself, its quite possible that they can put in their own anchors. I really see downtown being established names, that said there is the parking problem, and red-robin, and olive-garden is all about parking.

Downtown will be NOTHING like the past, but this economic correction is going to be long and hard, and most likely the hardest since the great depression. I just don't see many people eating $100/plate sushi very often. Perhaps you do? How times you been to the DEEP?

dartagnan said...

"The new wine bar '39' or something like that is like $9/glass for $6/bottle wine,"

Never been there and at those prices I never will. But the Portello Wine Cafe, also in NWX, is a great place for lunch. From 11 am to 3 pm every wine on the menu is

dartagnan said...

"I think your giving little bo-peep who wants to open a gallery a little too much credit, her hubby isn't going to let her open a gallery given their funds are hosed."

The truly rich aren't troubled much, if at all, by these little blips in the market. If little Jessica wants to amuse herself with a little wine bar or candle shop, hubby may indulge her -- especially if he can run their household expenses through the business and write them off.

dartagnan said...

Oops -- meant to say all the wines at Portello are $5 a glass from 11 am to 3 pm -- and they have some great ones.

dartagnan said...

"How times you been to the DEEP?"

Never, but I'm sure I'll try it eventually. My wife and I go out to a nice restaurant about once a month. But there are plenty of people who do it every week, or more. And then there's the business clientele. Don't assume these restaurants survive only on the touron business.

Anonymous said...

. From what I've seen , most of the young adults in this town seem more interested in riding barstools and flirting with a meth habit. I see businesses open and their owners sit around flicking business cards and chatting on the cell, doing nothing to promote or grow.
***
Now you have brought up the real problem. It used to be called the "grass-valley boredom', e.g. folks moved from the bay-ahrea to 'retire' with junior, and he's bored to death in an old ghost town. What does he do? Like any good bored USA kid,... DRUGS.

I didn't mean about the demise of downtown Bend to fall into the restaurant scene, but I guess that's where its going.

You want to get something done in a restaurant? Hire a mexican!

Why did the DEEP chef leave Merenda and start DEEP? Because they couldn't manage 85 lazy drug-addicts at Merenda. They wanted to be small so they could manage a few good people.

Where you have taken us is the ugly dark 'black hole' that Boss Hogg Hollern ( Brooks Resources ) frequently chastises the non-christian masses on. That is that Bend has become non-real people breeding non-real children. Those children grow up in Bend to be horses asses employees. Of course the Boss-Hogg solution is we all become jeezus-freaks.

We have tons of folks that came to Bend to make easy money, and bought 2-3 homes that now sit vacant, they work two jobs to make ends, and junior run's wild. He'll not work, and when he does work, he spins on a barstool with his cell phone chattin' 24-7. Yes, this is BEND, but what's NEW? This is the Bend that the city-of-Bend and boss-hogg-hollern have been creating for 30+ years.

Meth is a very cheap, and fast high, perfect for the high-speed internet video game youth culture.

I think again, this goes back to my entrepreneurial analogy of the roach coach, a few hard-working kids can have a good business, and NEVER have to hire their parsitic bro's.

The cheap veneer of Bend and it get quick rich Real Estate crowd, and Mortgage, and ... all that goes along with this culture will only get worse, and the kids will get worse.

There is good news, in my humble opinion we're heading into a nice little depression. That should change everything. Hopefully most people will move-on.

Now I'll defend the kids, it gets back to this grass-valley thing. In the day when I moved to Bend (1960's ) we rock-climbed, and mtn climbed everyday. Now the kids play video games, thus what the hell are parents moving here for? Its for themselves, not the kids. More and more kids cannot find meaningful jobs, even with college education. They're BORED out of their fucking mind in Bend, and thus they turn to drugs.

This is NOT new. I really think that more people who move to Bend need to think long & hard and look at junior, they think ah, if I move to Bend, he'll turn off the video game and become a mtn-biker! NOT, your kid is going to do the same thing here is that they did in LA.

These people have been coming up here now for years with their brats, and they work two jobs whoring for tips in restaurants, the kids are raised by video games. What the fuck to you expect? Not to many will become entrepreneurs, that said what is new?

I think the real thing that is NEW, is that nobody fucking cared in LA when it was happening to Mexicans or Black kids. But now especially in places like Bend its happening to white kids, BOREDOM+MONEY->DRUGS.

You end up with lazy parasites, but then what would you expect, most of the parents are get rich quick lazy brown-nosing losers. The kids know their parents are a joke, and the kids don't want to end up like their parents so WHY WORK.

Thus we have the NEW BEND. Again, like the subject post BEND is DEAD

Anonymous said...

My wife and I go out to a nice restaurant about once a month.
*
That was what I was afraid of, if the industry depended on you the town would close.

I'll just say this, sushi is NOT desert food, if you want sushi go to Sellwood and wait in line for three hours at saburu.

I never endorsed the concept that on your anniversary that you should take your wife to a Bend roach coach.

I brought up the idea so that places like super-burrito could survive without getting hosed by landlords in our Bend Kleptocracy.

sincerely,

Anonymous said...

Oops -- meant to say all the wines at Portello are $5 a glass from 11 am to 3 pm -- and they have some great ones.

Poops $5 a glass, but $6 a bottle at Trader Joes.

Anonymous said...

The truly rich aren't troubled much, if at all, by these little blips in the market.
*
There are very-very few 'truly rich' in Bend Oregon.

There up until most recently was a ton of house-flippers, e.g. $7/hr people flipping $500k homes, that is now over.

The 'Truly rich' truly not even make up 1% of Bend Oregon.

Anonymous said...

The truly rich aren't troubled much, if at all, by these little blips in the market. If little Jessica wants to amuse herself with a little wine bar or candle shop, hubby may indulge her --

*

The truly-rich are legacy familys of Wealth that are multi-generational ( Like Brooks-Hollern,... ). These familys are far and few in Bend.

Your little jessica is a trophy-wife in her 40's bored out of her mind married to a man in his 80's for money. Thus she opens a gallery in Bend, these "Jessica's" are NOT what is going to keep down-town Bend in business.

The number of truly-rich old men that marry white trash trophy wives that have to open a shop because of boredom are few and far.

Truly-Rich men have been married to the same women for 40+ years, and they and their wives have NO fucking interest in selling crap to tourists in Bend.

Anonymous said...

Note below on this craigs, this home can be had on your terms, just take over the payments.
Yup, owner terms, no problemo with bank loano as they not be available, here every flipper is now a banker.

...................................

$195000 3bdr/2bth on large/private lot. **Possible owner terms**
Reply to: hous-398680765@craigslist.org
Date: 2007-08-16, 1:09PM PDT


3bdrm/2bth house in a great location in Prineville near schools and fairground. House has been completely remodeled in and out including new: roof, windows, carpet/tile, counter-tops, bathrooms, etc. Large private lot.
Possible owner terms!!

Anonymous said...

20% reduction 'Golf-Side' Golfer's Paradise BRAND NEW HOME in Bend, reduced to $129k. Own in Bend, Golf in Bend, Cook meth in Bend, its all yours. Have it your way. Do you want frys with your order?

................................

$129900 Brand New Custom Home In BEND
Reply to: hous-398580109@craigslist.org
Date: 2007-08-16, 11:14AM PDT

* Price Reduced from $149,900 to $129,900
* 2-Bedroom (Both Master Suites), 2-Bath
* 1,022 SF New Construction Home
* Huge Laundry Room
* Insulated Garage with Work Bench
* Sprinkler System
* Air Conditioning
* Hardwood Floors
* Designer Trac Lighting
* Plumbed for Freestanding Gas Fireplace
* Extended 2-10 Builder Warranty
* Located in Golfside Subdivision, Directly Across Street from the Bend Country Club at 20129 Larkin Ct.

Anonymous said...

If you cannot get 'lucky' in this 55+ viagra-village, then you ain't carrying condoms from your walker. This place is cool, swingers partys every night at the clubhouse. It's affordable and conveniently located west of the Redmond Airport.
...................................
55+ Community
Type: Single Family Home
Location: 3722 SW 29th St , Redmond, OR 97756
Bedrooms: 1, Bathrooms: 1 full, 1 half
Price: $214,900
Description: Enjoy maintenance free living in this spacious cottage in Summer Creek's premiere 55+ community. This adorable 1 bedroom, 1.5 bath house has a roomy den/office that could also be used as another bedroom. Hardwood floors and tasteful colors make this home hard to beat. Stay cozy in the winter by the fireplace and cool in the summer with central A/C. The spacious deck allows for outdoor entertaining while enjoying the beautiful landscaping. Clubhouse allows you to get together with your neighbors and enjoy community living at its finest.

Anonymous said...

* Price Reduced from $149,900 to $129,900

* 1,022 SF New Construction Home

*

$120/sq-ft do I hear $80/sq-ft??


Will you pay for the lot?

Anonymous said...

"in a great location in Prineville"

The logical inconsistency in that phrase gave me a seizure.

Anonymous said...

"in a great location in Prineville"

The logical inconsistency in that phrase gave me a seizure.

*

Yes, but its next to the fairgrounds, which means its between the trailer park and the fairgrounds. That trailer park is real nice people there.

This is a $60k flipper with an ASK of $199k, its got a long way to go down. It's too bad somebody put all that money into the new roof, new carpet, and new floors. 'New' in central oregon means that it was just ripped out of another house. Most likely one of Brooks 4,000 homes sitting vacant in Priny got robbed of carpet, counters, and floors.

Anonymous said...

Today is a sad day for all in Oregon, our own KKR a New York Junk Bond Firm best known for holding Fred Meyer, Meier & Frank, just about every company in Oregon other than Les Schwab, oh yea they control "The Oregonian". Years ago they took over a little pension fund in Oregon called PERS, and created the greatest junk-bond firm in the world. Today they're doing a AHM,BEAR-STEARN,COUNTRY-WIDE last call. If KKR goes down then it means that Oregon would be a free State and no longer a plantation colony. KKR is to Oregon, what Brooks Resources ( Boss Hogg Hollern ) is to Bend.

LONDON, Aug. 16, 2007 (Thomson Financial delivered by Newstex) --

The meltdown in mortgage markets hit Wall Street gorilla Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co (NYSE:KKR)

(KKR) yesterday, as one of its real-estate affiliates sought to delay repayment of 5 bln usd in short-term debt held by about 15 investors, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Some of the short-term debt was also held by money-market funds. The move at KKR Financial (NYSE:KFN) Holdings LLC is so far the biggest blowup to hit the market for commercial paper, which is a form of short-term debt used by companies to fund operations.

Some issuers of asset-backed commercial paper have been hit by declining values of collateral linked to sub-prime mortgages.

News of the repayment delay and associated losses of up to 290 mln usd comes as KKR founders Henry Kravis and George Roberts mull a public offering. They are also trying to complete several buyouts, but financing has been disrupted by the debt-market turmoil.

KKR is also the latest big Wall Street name -- following Bear Stearns Cos (NYSE:BSC) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:GS) -- to face a situation in which an affiliate confronted losses and possible demands for debt payment or redemptions.

Bear Stearns put up funds to repay creditors of a mortgage hedge fund, while Goldman put its own money into a money-losing hedge fund. But it was not clear whether KKR would consider such a step.

KKR Financial, which is 12 pct owned by KKR, said yesterday it recently sold 5.1 bln usd of mortgage loans at a loss of 40 mln usd, and may lose as much as 200 mln usd more on its investment in its two issuers of commercial paper. It said it could also face an additional 50 mln usd in unspecified 'liabilities.'
The KKR commercial-paper issuers, KKR Atlantic Funding Trust and KKR Pacific Funding Trust, asked to delay the repayment and extend the notes' maturity for up to six months, citing 'the unprecedented disruption in the residential mortgage and global commercial-paper markets'.

The two issuers raised money with 500 mln usd in equity backing from KKR Financial and invested in mortgage securities based on a debt-to-equity ratio of about 20-to-1, said the people familiar with the situation. Such mortgages might fetch only 90 pct or less of their face value now, these people said.

Anonymous said...

The tip of the iceberg: Financial institutions in trouble

3 Bear Stearns hedge funds

3 BNP Parisbas funds

3 Goldman Sachs funds: Global Alpha, North American Equity Opportunities, North American Equity Opportunities

Sowood hedge fund -- absorbed by Citadel to mask impact

Bowa Commercial Bank, Taiwan -- seized by regulators

Renaissance (quant)

Luminent

Westdeutsche Landesbank hedge fund

IKB Industriebank, Germany

Deutsche Bank ABS hedge fund

AQR Capital Management (quant)

Washington Mutual

Countrywide

American Home Mortgage

Basis Capital

Absolute Capital

Macquarie Bank of Australia

Homebanc

Man Group (UK)

Anonymous said...

What we have in fact been witnessing since Bush’s attack on Iraq has been a world asset bubble, benefiting derivatives, hedge funds, stock and real estate speculation, junk bonds, and other paper instruments.
United States, the living standard has fallen by about 65 percent since the beginning of the current reactionary political cycle with the coming of Nixon in 1968. The US is currently running a merchandise trade deficit of between $800 and $900 billion, heading for a trillion dollars per year soon. This means that the US has to borrow more than $2 billion per day just to keep sucking in food, consumer electronics, and services from the rest of the world. The foreign dollar overhang is enormous: about $1 trillion each in Japan, China, and Saudi Arabia, who now in effect hold a mortgage on the USA.

On top of all this, the US is already thoroughly deindustrialized. Steel, chemical, and auto are now a shadow of their former selves. Industrial employment has dropped to the lowest levels in well over a century.

The US industrial economy ended when Volcker ran the Federal Reserve and instituted a 22 percent prime rate in 1978-1980. As the dollar falls, we will hear commentators assuring the public that a collapsed currency will mean that US exports are cheap. The problem is that there are almost no factories left to produce anything that might be exported, so these benefits cannot accrue.

Anonymous said...

The below story is much like our own "Brooks Resources", aka Brooks Investments, local investors in Countrywide all over the country are showing up and demanding all their money NOW. Countrywide had been acting like a bank, and paying top-dollar interest to the wealthy, yes they're FDIC insured, but that's only good for the first $100k, many of the wealthy have $1M+ in the Country-Wide Bank. So there you have it the RUNS on the bank have started, with ALL the investor money of Brooks tied up in unsellable Priny & Madras housing, when will we see a run on the bank of Brooks in Bend?

A rush to withdraw funds
Worried about the woes of home-loan giant Countrywide, bank customers line up. The firm says it's not fazed.

By E. Scott Reckard and Annette Haddad, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers
9:39 PM PDT, August 16, 2007


Anxious customers jammed the phone lines and website of Countrywide Bank and crowded its branch offices to pull out their savings because of concerns about the financial problems of the mortgage lender that owns the bank.

Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest home-loan company in the nation, sought Thursday to assure depositors and the financial industry that both it and its bank were fiscally stable. And federal regulators said they weren't alarmed by the volume of withdrawals from the bank.

The mortgage lender said it would further tighten its loan standards and make fewer large mortgages. Those moves could make it harder to get a home loan and further depress the housing market in California and other states.

The rush to withdraw money -- by depositors that included a former Los Angeles Kings star hockey player and an executive of a rival home-loan company -- came a day after fears arose that Countrywide Financial could file for bankruptcy protection because of a worsening credit crunch stemming from the sub-prime mortgage meltdown.

The parent firm borrowed $11.5 billion Thursday by using up an existing line of credit from 40 banks, saying the money would help the lender meet its funding needs and continue to grow. But stock investors, apparently alarmed that the company felt compelled to use the credit line, sent Countrywide's already battered stock down an additional 11%.

At Countrywide Bank offices, in a scene not common since the U.S. savings-and-loan crisis ended in the early '90s, so many people showed up to take out some or all of their money that in some cases they had to leave their names.

bendover said...


Anxious customers jammed the phone lines and website of Countrywide Bank and crowded its branch offices to pull out their savings because of concerns about the financial problems of the mortgage lender that owns the bank.

Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest home-loan company in the nation, sought Thursday to assure depositors


My guess on this show was that interest rates would have to go up, because of collapse of the dollar, still could happen, why would folks abroad continue to buy dollars with the USA not paying the highest rate of return? Well the FED dropped the rate, which will make Wall-Street happy.

MTG's are now costing 7%+3pts+3%fee to close. Have any of you looked? I got three quotes this week for the hell of it, and it was all consistent 6.5+% APR plus $6,000 closing costs per $100k. OUCH. Back in 2002 you could get money for free. Just six months ago I got a loan for $200k that cost $2k total to close. I'm NOT borrowing any RE-MTG money for a long time, I don't mind paying 6.5% its been that for years, but I'm not going pay $6-8k per $100k to close, that's FUCKING BULLSHIT. What it is is the new POINT system has a builtin insurance premium in the points that is averaging 4%. Also MTG is down so LOW that ALL MTG outfits are now having to screw everyone just to make what nickel they can. I have to borrow money unless its CHEAP and LOW interest, thus I'll just sit this one out. If I have to buy something I'll buy on contact paper and demand that the title be held in escrow, if the SELLER doesn't hold the paper never buy on contract, because in actuality its NOT his/her to sell.

Interest rates are now going to drop, old bush is going to do a Japan with us, its going to be a long recession, but low interest rate, this will keep wall-street from bleeding. There's a lot of debt, and the only kind of credit available is short-term, thus short-term rates must be kept low by the government.

Countrywide is getting $10Billion, and needs $5B/day right now to handle the bank-run, EVERYONE is pulling their investment OUT of MTG high-interest junk-bond MTG funds. I predicted the money would evaporate, I never got into the fact that it would be so ugly that the little-rich would withdraw by standing in lines for days. There is a debate that USA shouldn't be giving this cash to countrywide to cover the bank-run, that the investors and country-wide should go belly up, after all THEY created the bubble. So it perfectly clear everyone is going to get a bailout. Except the little white/brown/black-trash that bought flipper-bait, they're going to lose their home.

It's odd that AHM, and a lot of other MTG places were allowed to go bankrupt, but ol country-wide is to big to fail, this most likely is because the guy running the US-Treasury is an ex Goldman CEO. Taking care of their own with taxpayer dollars.

$2Trillion for Iraq war, Trillions for the 'sub-prime' bailout, looks like the perfect reason for dems&repubs to put a stake through the heart of every federal entitlement that we know of. Trillions of dollars needed for USA infrastructure, thats ok, we'll give all that federal biz to country-wide, make them the master-developer and privatize all federal infrastructure.

I hope that all those that voted for DUBYA are very happy. Soon with all the TOLLS its going to cost big-bucks to just flush the toilet.

Anonymous said...

“The decline in the quoted value of New York listed stocks is only part of the story. The total of real-estate mortgages in default, particularly mortgages on city property, is unexampled. The value of real estate can no longer be accurately appraised, because the market for real estate has been practically paralyzed.”

*

Read the above, what does an appraisal mean when money is effectively not available? Now the good news, the above was written in 1932.

Anonymous said...


The value of real estate can no longer be accurately appraised, because the market for real estate has been practically paralyzed.”

We are already seeing this. Many properties are simply sitting on the market and stubborn lenders and sellers are refusing to lower prices. Buyers are refusing to buy or are unable to get loans. The market is on a downward spiral - 1932

Anonymous said...

“Not only did our investments shrivel in the last three years but we even frequently lost our pocketbooks. Cash in hand, left for safekeeping in a bank, often went the way of our investments, and worse. Almost $3,000,000,000 of our daily-used cash funds were sequestered in the doubtful assets of the 4835 insolvent banks. Widespread communities were left with only the mattress as a safe depository, and with little to put into it. People became so frightened in regard to the safety of the banks that they locked up in safe-deposit vaults, or selected elsewhere, more than $1,500,000,000.” - 1932

Anonymous said...

Now we get to our own Bend-Oregon, it only gets better,...

“This is a shameful and humiliating exhibition. It is uniquely bad. Across the border in Canada, there was not a single bank failure during our period of depression, and one must go back to 1923 to find even a small one. Nowhere else in the world at any time, were it a time of war, or of famine, or of disaster, has any other people recorded so many bank failures in a similar period as did we. We were not experiencing a war, a famine or any other natural disaster. All the economic tribulations we have undergone in the past three years have been man-made troubles, and Nature has continued to shower us with an easy abundance – more, indeed, than we have known how to distribute with economic wisdom.”

“Human stupidity and cupidity were the taproots of this great financial disaster. Those are evils which will always best us. There have, however, been revealed faults and weaknesses in our banking and investment practices that account in part for the extreme nature of this experience. Isn’t it about time that we began thoughtfully to examine some of the fundamentals of our banking and investment theories and methods?”

Anonymous said...

Now would be a great time to read Studs Terkel's "Hard Times," an amazing collection of interviews of Americans talking about their memories of the Great Depression.

Anonymous said...

>>My guess on this show was that interest rates would have to go up, because of collapse of the dollar, still could happen, why would folks abroad continue to buy dollars with the USA not paying the highest rate of return? Well the FED dropped the rate, which will make Wall-Street happy.

That's what I thought, too. But if you've been watching carefully, foreign investors who had been all cocky about alternatives to the US dollar and Treasuries are lining up to get back in. When the houses of cards start to fall, they don't want to be anywhere but US treasuries.

If you think the US stock market has been queasy, look at the Asian markets over the last week. For some real perspective, do what I do and watch some CNBC India at night (search Google for "CNBC India streaming" and you'll find it). The way you learn about the world is paying attention to what someone from another country says to his countrymen, not what he says to you. Free streaming TV and radio from other countries can teach you something. (Foreign TV is nearly always just as insipid, and rarely as well produced as US television, but infinitely more enlightening because you're hearing something different than you're used to hearing.)

I was watching last night as the Indian stock market was banging against the 200 day moving average, and the commentators were nervous as hell. They're trying to explain the US mortgage market and why the hell it's affecting India's stock market. Really marvelous to watch.

Snap yourselves out of your habits. The Internet has a multitude of unexpected goodies, so stop clicking on the same 10 damned links you always click on. Take CNN out of your bookmarks. You won't learn anything new there.

--TT

Anonymous said...

Price trumps location in current housing market

BY ELLEN YAN | ellen.yan@newsday.com
August 14, 2007

In real estate, "location, location, location" has long been the mantra. But nowadays, "price, price, price" could be a better arbiter of what sells.

---

Got that folks? Forget the bend is wonderful mantra. Real estate now is price, price, price.

--TT

Anonymous said...

Take CNN out of your bookmarks. You won't learn anything new there.

--TT

*

TT, KiLL YOUR FUCKING TV.

You can 'read' FT, or just about any non-usa editorial to find truth.

Much of INTL TV is all owned by Murdoch. You'll NEVER FIND TRUTH on TV.

That said I agree that 'western indians' on TV, may be expressing their feelings. But lets be honest they all know that Swiss-Francs in a GOOD swiss bank is 'SAFE' the USA DOLLAR is going to plummet. There is nothing safe about the USA, its stock market is hosed.

What I see is the USA is now doing the japanese thing, for the new recession head the short term interest rate towards zero, then the masses will do 'carry trades' like the Japanese, e.g. borrow yen, and buy t-bills, borrow yen @ 0%, and buy t-bills and earn 4% for nuttin. Of course now its game over, for the jap carry-trade, which is why the dollar is dropping like a rock.

During the 70's and 22% prime the difference was inflation and high oil cost,... now gold/oil is dropping like a rock because people have to get real money and stock/bonds are NO longer selling. Thus we're in a deflationary game, sort of like what IHTBYB talked a few weeks ago and we call "HYPO-INFLATION" everything is becoming worthless.

Real Estate became so expensive in Japan during the last years, that even with zero or 1/2% interest, still nobody was buying. Same here RE is paralyzed.

Like the GREAT DEPRESSION, we're probably going to see 2% interest rates, but nobody can or will borrow, except those smart enough to do carry-trades, but when the DOLLAR is falling like a knife its sort of STUPID to put your saving's into USA DOLLARS.

Lastly, FUCK the internet, we all spend too much time on the internet, its nothing new, its very hard to find anything original. It's no longer even useful for finding a good deal. The internet is over-sold, and your over-selling it,

I agree that cnnfn.com is next to useless, again its NOT what is said, but who say's it, thats why its best to watch the WSJ and FT. I myself just like to google-news for "Housing meltdown" and see what comes up, if its hong-kong, bangalore, or moscow ... even the better. But generally MOST source comes from WSJ.

If OIL had of kept going up, and the dollar collapsing, we would have probably seen high-interest rates, but its clear we're now headed to mass deflation of all assets, as the world dumps they're good stuff on the market. A cynic would say this was ALL engineered...

Look at this way, we went to IRAQ to steal the oil, and we lost. So what then?

An economic WAR on the world, that forces them to dump their assets for penny's on the dollar, thus we get all the oil and gold for cheap, when the smoke clears we get it all without the misfortune of oil, and by the way had we not slaughtered the Iraqis, Afghanis,... then they would have put up a fight when the new owners arrive, now the muslim world will be so fucking tired when the NEW plantation-owner arrives that nobody will care,

USA wins buy low, someday sell high, soften them up in advance,... I think everything is going to plan.

Anonymous said...

>>There is nothing safe about the USA, its stock market is hosed.

And yet foreigners are PILING IN to Treasuries right now. That's why prices are going up and rates are going down.

At least for now, it's obvious that the Treasuries are still viewed as the ultimate safe haven, much more so than gold or any other asset.

Now, I'm not going to argue that this is true in 1 year, 10, or 100. I refuse to speculate. Right now it is.

Anonymous said...

>>thats why its best to watch the WSJ and FT.

I agree. I get them both. The damned FT comes a day late in my mailbox. Which goes to show you that there are NOT ENOUGH PEOPLE in Bend that give a damned to find out anything that matters. Superficial knowledge is what sells here.

You can't even find an IBD at a single retailer in town, and that has the best DATA. In any other town (even Eugene!) you can pick it up at a grocery store. No one here seems interested in finance, just Real Estate.

I don't always agree with you, but when I see the quotes you post I at least know that you're interested in the world around you, which is more than I can say for most.

Besides, I'd rather read what I disagree with than bathe in confirmation bias all day long.

Anonymous said...

>>Lastly, FUCK the internet, we all spend too much time on the internet, its nothing new, its very hard to find anything original. It's no longer even useful for finding a good deal. The internet is over-sold, and your over-selling it,

I don't think it's oversold. I think it's poorly used. It has a long tail, and everyone is clusterfucking the head of it.

dartagnan said...

"Poops $5 a glass, but $6 a bottle at Trader Joes."

I know something about wines, and the stuff Portello pours is definitely not $6 a bottle at Trader Joe's, or anywhere else.

dartagnan said...

"Is anyone else sick of craftsman houses?"

Hell yes. And 90% of the "Craftsman" slammers being built in Bend these days are faux Craftsman. They stick a porch 5 feet wide with a couple of pillars made out of plywood on the front of the house and call it "Craftsman."

A local builder I know refers to such design as "Crapsman."

dartagnan said...

In today's NY Times Paul Krugman predicts the housing slump will continue "for years, not months." We appear to be on the cusp of a major global recession ... or worse.

Anonymous said...

>>In today's NY Times Paul Krugman predicts the housing slump will continue "for years, not months."

Yeah, well he's got about the worst prediction record I can think of. Maybe I should rethink my bearishness. :-)

Anonymous said...

price,price,...

*

Nah, you just ain't old enough, it will always be location,...

But bend was never the location,

The location is Hamptons, Kauai, ... folks like being near the ocean,... San Juan Isl's, Then there is INTL 'location' Tuscany, Paris, St. Tropez, ...

Yeh 'price', TT go to detroit buy your self a sub-division for $10k/home, but be sure to never visit. If you visit your dead. Same for the 'new' new-orleans, stuff is very cheap, but so is LIFE.

bendbb said...

Last night I promised not to cum in Bendbb's mouth. I lied.

Anonymous said...

Oh, I'm old enough. I've been threated and/or mugged in some great midwestern and eastern cities. Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago, Philly (scarier in the slums than you might think), DC.

I've managed to steer clear of Baltimore, thankfully.

Detroit is sad as hell. Youngstown, too. Those cities have programs to tear things down. Basically, they are so fucked that they are spending big bucks to tear down large parts of the city to revert to open areas/parks. The numbers of unoccupied buildings are almost impossible to comprehend.

It's sorry as hell.

Anonymous said...

foreigners are PILING IN to Treasuries right now

*

We don't know that for a fact, what we do know is that in the last two days country-wide alone has had $10 Billion in withdrawals a literal run on the bank. This $10B was covered by the FED in a form of low interest short term loan. Thus the FED is now in the short-term spread bail-out biz,.. Loan money to people who in effect come back to your door to deposit on the surface as long as you tell people that the back door 'investors' are INTL it sounds like its NOT chinese-dollars ( money going into same shorts as it came out ).

FACT is IT IS the same folks at the front door and back door, there is NO real outside money coming in.

How long can the USA bailout the people who created the problem by printing money, and then have the same money be put into the USA bank, I guess you can do it as long as it takes to regain the confidence scam.

We know that ALL these people are turning around and putting that money into short-term treasury.

We don't know its INTL folk, they're quite upset with USA arrogance, and until we start paying 20% they'll be voting with they're feet.

Go EURO, or Swiss Franc. The dollar will continue to fall for a long-long time.

Anonymous said...

The numbers of unoccupied buildings are almost impossible to comprehend.

It's sorry as hell.

*

Yes, but the price is low, and now its price, price, price,

and thus hollern and the condo-ho's are all headin east on the next train out of bend,...

Anonymous said...

I'm not going to argue that this is true in 1 year, 10, or 100. I refuse to speculate. Right now it is.

*

I don't speculate either, forty years ago I played the stock market, quickly figured it was a rigged game.

Like the book of the post depression "where are the customers yachts?"

You want to make money, start your own business, and work it hard, stock-market assumption is you let other people manage your money, nobody ever manages your money like your self.

Even Greenspan puts all his money into t-bills, t-bonds,... Safety is #1, after that buy RE low and hold. Why sell RE when you can rent forever and have a permanent income stream.

There is a myth of the past 1-2 generations that you can not work and invest your money, thus the great post-baby-boom pension scam, literally trillions of dollars are being stolen from people that wanted to sit on their ass and earn 10%/yr.

What to make and money, and KEEP your money? Trust NO ONE.

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