Johnson said the banks of the canal aren’t stable enough to withstand construction like that, and that the only long-term solution would be to pipe the canal through that entire area.
Driving slowly on the road atop one bank of the canal Tuesday, Johnson pointed out all the nearby development: dozens of homes; a strip mall with ice cream and video stores; an auto parts store with its parking lot 10 feet below the canal; and the Sun Ranch Mobile Home Park on the canal’s south bank, which will be razed for the condominiums.
If the canal were to breach near the planned development, water would flow across Reed Market and back toward Third Street, he said. And even if the water was cut off immediately at the top of the canal, the torrents out of a rupture would last for several hours.
Johnson’s piping solution is more complex and costly than it may seem at first blush.
“You can’t just do this, plop a 50-foot piece of pipe in the middle of the canal, because you can’t necessarily get all the water in the pipe,” Johnson said.
Such a pipe would have to start where the canal’s current is faster — in that case where it passes under Third Street.
And with the city’s possible future plans to create a new intersection at Reed Market and American Lane, Johnson would like to extend that pipe past the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad tracks to the east.
Cost for such a project: $5.5 million, Johnson said. In a perfect world, he’d like to do it in the next five years, too.
“It’s fair to ask the developers for a share,” Johnson said. “I think it’s likely the city and COID will have to pay something (also).”
"Fair"? What the hell does he mean it's FAIR! It's not just "fair", it should be implicit & mandatory. But of course it's not. You must remember these are developers bringing something we are in dire need of: About 2 billion housing units. You see, we are down to our last couple of decades of housing supply. Prineville only has 10,000+ home units, or 76 years supply at July's torrid sales pace (11 homes sold). Madras is in more perilous condition having breached below the half century mark (in Yarrow alone) by blowing 8 homes out the hatch in July.
This issue has been (over?)addressed by BendBust, SDC charges are Way Too Low in Bend, and this article brings this out in high relief. This move will cost millions, and is being brought on largely by construction activity itself, which threatens to burst these canals. But as usual, City Councilors walk on eggshells around developers who basically run the show in this 2-horse shithole. Perhaps a short graphical novelette is in order? Yes, yes it is. We'll call it:
Steve Johnson, district manager of the Central Oregon Irrigation District, has got a haircut you can set your watch to. I like this guy. He is tired of fuckin' around, and that haircut clearly telegraphs that this guy ain't gonna take any bullshit.
Yeah, here's your typical sleazy-ass Bend Condo Developer. It's not bad enough these bitches make millions, they gotta nickel & dime taxpayers to death on SDC charges. I hate these bitches.
Typical City Council meeting swarming with filthy stinkin' rich developers, trying to sleaze their way out of $5 in SDC charges. City Councilor Linda Johnson chimes in when asked about the consequences to locals if excavation activity breaches the canal.
Here we see a recent proposal by Brooks Resources President, Mike Hollern, to build a underground condo parking garage. Hollern uses PowerPoint technology & a laser pointer which quickly makes the male Councilors remark about his virile constitution, and women City Councilors moist about their mid-sections.
Of course, Steve Johnson doesn't like this one bit. It's his job to see that the muddy banks of the Bend canals ("River Fudge") are packed hard as a fuckin' carp. Above, Johnson utters a solemn creed within his COID corps and it's loyal band of ruthless fudge packers.
Of course this proposal, like all others, is quickly approved, and Hollern is in the air in no time.
Here's your typical outcome: Stupid-ass City Councilors, reassured by some glad-handing and a $6 bottle of wine from The Grocery Outlet compliments of condo developers, have overlooked the pesky business of DUE DILIGENCE. And something they were assured would cost $1.59 ends up costing $250 million and kills 6,000,000. Nice.
Condo developers celebrate with the Usual Victorious Fly-By...
...before returning to headquarters. And Bend taxpayers end up where they always do...
Well, I don't want to bore you anymore with tales of Bend City Councilor incompetence, so I'll move on....The Bulletin finally came out with what I can typify as The Tipping Point article in the implosion of Bend real estate, "Prices still sliding, sales still slowing". Now, if you go back and take a quick look at last months article, "Home sales continue decline", you see The End Of An Era: The Last YoY chart of Bend home prices rising for what will be many, many moons.
Yup, sales are imploding, but PRICES as of June 2007 were UP year over year. No more. July 2007 is DOWN, across all Cent OR markets. This was clearly telegraphed by the terrible state of volume implosion. No one is buying homes in Bend Oregon anymore. You'll hear different, but simply respond with, "Then why in hell are volume AND price falling?". OK, this is The End that I talked about wayyyy back last Winter. Here is a reproduction of the data from The Bulletin piece:
These are July data points, and it's smooth sailing until July 2007. And then you see something that hasn't happened in many moons, DROPPING PRICES. Get used to it. Now for a better vantage points, here are area medians normalized at 1.0:
You can see it's a pretty close horserace with Prineville taking the clear lead in 2006. Prices are really being led by volume though, which is disastrous:In Bend, 109 single-family homes on less than an acre of land sold in July, down 27.8 percent from June’s sales, according to the Central Oregon Multiple Listing Service. The median price — the price at which half sold for more and half for less — stood at $340,000, 4.5 percent less than the median price of homes sold in July 2006.
Monthly sales figures in Redmond, Crook County and Jefferson County also fell to their lowest levels in five years, according to the MLS, while median sale prices dipped below prices in the same month a year ago.
In Redmond, 40 non-acreage homes sold in July, down 45.2 percent from July 2006. Median prices also slipped to $247,000, down 5.7 percent from the same month last year.
In Crook County, 11 homes sold — half of the July 2006 number — while median sales prices slid to $190,000, off 13.5 percent from homes sold in July 2006.
In Jefferson County, eight homes sold — a third of the July 2006 volume — while median sales prices dipped 4.9 percent from July 2006 to $173,250.
These are just huge declines. It's hard to remember that on an individual basis, people of course care about the value of their own home. But the industry as a whole is about dollar volume. When there's no volume, you can ask all you want for your house, but you got a snowballs chance of getting it. You have to have volume to get "what you think it's worth", otherwise you're just dreaming.And volume has gone to hell here. And the other implication of imploding volume is that The Largest, Most Influential, And Certainly Most Lucrative Industry in Central Oregon IS DYING. The 300 layoffs at Columbia Air will look like chickenfeed compared to the RE industry losses coming in the next few years. There will be THOUSANDS losing their jobs day in and day out for as far as the eye can see around here.
THIS IS IT, THE END. This is what this blog has been about in large measure: When will there come a day when there is INCONTROVERTIBLE PROOF that the RE bubble in Bend has busted? That day is today. It's Over.
For a aside, I noticed the Bulletin has gone far afield looking for fresh young nubian Realtors with which the Bend blogosphere could tear a new ass... if it dared. And they found one Pam Lester of Redmond. Clearly not staying abreast of Whitey McBlogfuckers penchant for tearing nitwits a new corn chute, Lester popped off this Cleveland Steamer:
“I don’t expect prices to go anywhere but up from here,” Lester said, “because they can’t go any lower.”
Pam, cuz you quasi-hot, I'm going to give you some advice. That statement is what we call, in the business, a TAUTOLOGY. Like "Boys will be boys". Wikipedia puts it this way:
In propositional logic, a tautology (from the Greek word ταυτολογία) is a sentence that is true in every valuation (also called interpretation) of its propositional variables, independent of the truth values assigned to these variables.
Sounds smart, but actually it's real, real stupid. Your thesis, "they can't go any lower" is flawed in that it is idiotic. Prices can go lower, and will. I'm going to go easy on you, cuz it's your first time, and like I said, you got some moderate hotness. Please refrain from making tremendously stupid statements like that again. Your clients start to wonder where your cheerleading outfit is. And so do I. Where is it, by the way?
On a personal note, the fact that The Bulletin is going farther afield for their Skank-O-The-Month, and skirting pathological liars like Norma "Sold Out" DuBois & Becky Breeze, makes me think that this blog may be achieving one of it's primary goals: Making RE markets FAR more transparent by raising awareness of what are clear misstatements in the public media. It takes me back...
Man, what a proud moment. About 45 minutes after we commenced bombing those filthy stinkin' rich Iraqis, GW arrives via hoverbus on the USS Fuck You, to deliver the Good News:Damn right. And as we all know, it's been smooth sailing ever since with Iraqi's celebrating, basking in an economic renaissance, and carrying American GI's down Baghdad's glorious palm tree lined boulevards in their Rolls Royces, Lamborghinis and Ferraris. Well, in that spirit, I thought I'd share a personal moment when I realized the battle between Paul-Doh, Blogger Extraordinaire, and Evil Bend Media had well & truly been won:
Finally, for all the World to see, we see Paul-doh sitting on his patented "Coff-Toila-Matt" (combination Mattress, Toilet, and Coffin), soaring light as a feather over his vanquished foes, who he later ate. But Paul-doh doesn't work in a vacuum. No, Paul-doh never give up the fight due to the unwavering support of his Old Lady, who give him comfort when he low, snap occasional PR pics (with titillatingly placed T-shirt/pup tent), and bring Paul-doh 32 gallon drum of lard when it dinnertime.
I love you Baby!Seriously though folks, this blog & the comments therein show the power of what just a few determined indivduals can accomplish when they set their mind to it. Congrats.
156 comments:
Oh my God, I think I peed myself!
Holy Shit. That's all I have to say.
Funniest thing EVER! Paul-doh is one sexy bitch.
Dude, you are seriously warped. I Love it! That is some of the funniest blogging ever. Keep it up!
exactly what are the mechanics of mortgage payments and foreclosure actions after a mortgage has been collateralized and sold to a hedge fund, etc?
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Under the terms of your loan, for a fee the loan is 'serviced' by an appointed fiduciary. If you have a few mtgs in the last 10+ years, you'll know that that the loans frequently get sold, and that you must frequently re-assign insurance and payment to the new holder of the mtg.
WRT foreclosure, default, ... its all subject to state law.
Since you mention 'collateralize & hedge', your talking about an order of magnitude of depth from a simple loan by an originator, this is called unwinding, and has nothing to do with the debtor.
Too many, if not 100's of articles have been posted even in this thread this week on the subject.
For instance your bringing up issues on opposite ends of the continuum "foreclosures' which effect the individual debtor, and 'hedge funds' which effect the individual investor.
Both are going to get FUCKED investors and debtors, the difference is the debtors were deadbeats to begin with, many of the investors were hard working albeit suckers for a high rate of income generation.
I feel that your question is like "What are the mechanics of physical science?", which can be answered, but I feel the first step should be obtaining a PHD in physics, your economic question is basically "what is the mechanics of the post 1980 USA MTG industry."
Please be specific in your question, otherwise your going to get 1000's of textbooks to read.
Again in the past few months and even this week, many good articles were posted on the subject of post 1980 RE-MTG finance 101.
Do you make your payments to the hedge fund? To the originating bank?
{ The originating MTG folk sell your MTG the second it closes, there is NO bank. From minute to minute YOU must know who owns your MTG, and who is servicing your loan. ]
If it is foreclosed, who actually does the foreclosure, filing the papers with the county, taking possession, auctioning it off, etc.
{ You'll get a letter from the owner of the property, this be the first on the title, tell you to get the fuck out, generally it takes 1-2 years before you get dragged into civil court. There the judge will give you 30 days, and if you don't get the fuck out, then your in contempt, jail-time.
}
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I apologize for the generality, but your question is WIDE-OPEN. I have been horse-trading RE since the 1960's and have gone through many foreclosures NO fault of my own. In 1983 I bought several homes in Oregon just like now for nothing from contractors, on contract, it turned out they weren't paying the FED. So eventually I got a letter from FHA, doing what my lawyer said I just sat on the homes, sure enough it took 1-2 years before the county court dragged my ass before the judge, and he gave 30 days to clear.
The lawyer had told me that the 1-2 years of 'rent-free' I would get my down-payment back, and he was right. It didn't effect me at all.
The system doesn't really care about who is in the house, its just the new owner that cares to get you out so they can sell the house.
Note this question is so wide, for instance what if your the originator of the loan?
Then of course your in default, and you still owe the money, unless you can file bankruptcy, which just got changed, so that is NOT an option.
I hate to change the subject, because I'm assuming from the naivety of the question its a hypothetical. But lets say they forgive your loan and let you walk, then the IRS goes after you for the difference, e.g. you walk from a $500k home, zero down, they sell at auction for $250k, and forgive you. YOU OWE uncle sam full taxes on $250k INCOME.
This is the WORST possible outcome of this game. THIS IS HOW PEOPLE ARE GETTING THE MOST FUCKED TODAY. THIS IS WHY UNCLE LOVES FORECLOSURES. THIS IS why all post-2006 will introduce a new system of debt peonage slavery, and debtors prisons are coming.
There is SIMPLY too much to this game, I wish that folks would ask simple explicit questions of how the system works.
Note on the subject of "who do you send the check to", ... that is all subject to who owns the loan, and YOU the person who took out the loan MUST know your terms, and you'll get mail frequently telling your where to send the check. Remember this is just a clearing house where you send the check, they get $10-20/mo for simply processing your check, and sending a statement, and there are zillion companys doing this service.
IHTBYB,
Thanks for taking out some of your busy time on the subject of SCD and COID.
Yes, the contractors are pissed, they have been paying $12k/home for sdc, which actually costs we the tax-payer, $60k,
Currently the prices is being raised to $16k/home and the contractors have gone insane,
SDC means service development costs
On the subject of COID, central oregon irrigation district,
The issue is that the developers put SHIT right next to the canals, the FUCKHEADS who bought are throwing garbage over the fence, which is blocking the canal at the culverts, which is causing flooding. The solution is to PIPE, rather than MAKING it a felony to dump furniture, garbage, cars, ... in the canal.
The pipe mentioned along the tracks for $5Million is really going to cost 4X, and doesn't solve the fucking problem. The problem is ALL the COID canals either need to be piped, or folks needed to be HIT over the fucking head, not to dump their garbage in the fucking canal.
Now the issue of the PIPE, if the water is piped, then ALL rural wells will go dry, and it will cost over $200 million to deliver potable water to rural property. WHO IN THE HELL IS GOING TO PAY??
My guess is whats really going on here is ALWAYS is big fucking construction creates a fucking problem, and then collects billions to solve the fucking problem. This is how PDX works, like the fucking OHSU-TRAM started out at $5M, I think ended up costing $60M, or light-rail, costs a $1M/mile, was supposed to cost a few million for system.
Bechtel, Halliburton are the largest beneficiary in Oregon. Brooks is SMALL potatoes compared to the folks that will build the new sewage, water, flood control, and freeway system in Eastern Oregon.
All our 'problems' are being manufactured.
On the subject of Brooks the largest developer in Central Oregon.
If you take the $60k/home - $12k/home , which is $48k/home difference, and multiply this by the number of homes built since 2002, then you get over a Billion dollars exactly what needs to be now spent on updating Bends infrastructure.
Ergo a billions dollars profit that Brooks largely made came from CHEAP SDC's, in effect the Bend tax-payer is who enables boss-hogg-brooks.
SDC's are schools, roads, sewage, water, and flood control. Currently we need $300M for sewage, $200M for water, and $500M for flood control. The schools and roads are going to be another 1/2 billion.
Today Brooks has left dodge, and is now up in Priny&Madras shafting those people, its just a few little dumb contractors left in Bend fighting to not have to pay over $12k/home for SDC. Note, that this money must be paid up front, and these developers have NO CASH.
Note that having the city subsidize or DEFER the $48k/home difference is what created the boom, had developers had to pay actual cost in the first place all this shit wouldn't have gotten built.
Today BEND is in a world of pscyho-SHIT, and tomorrow BEND will be wallowing in SHIT if it doesn't figure out how to budget new sewage treatment plants. ASAP.
Many citys in OREGON make Developers pay the actual cost of SDC up front, in Wilsonville Oregon, a city of RICH people, they MUST pay $90k/home, because these are smart rich people who want the best schools for junior, the best roads for their Escalade, and the best pipes for their turds.
Bend is populated with DUMB FUCKING HELOC RICH fuck-heads. Who want something or less than nothing, and what they're going to end up with is worse than poverty with a view.
Bend is going to be a standing in shit with a view, .e.g. if the condo-HO condo isn't blocking your view.
Yeah, to whom you send your money is irrelevant. You just do what you're told.
Your mortgage can be stripped into pieces and so isn't even owned by one investor (thus the difficulty of loan "work outs").
For instance, a vehicle can be made of many mortgages' principle payments only. Another vehicle may be made of interest payments only. These latter are known as "toxic" and investors often have to be paid to take such vehicles.
Mortgage vehicles are not simple. People pay off their loans early when rates come down, which is when the holder would prefer that people don't. And people don't pay them off when rates go up, which is when the holder would prefer they would.
That's why pension funds and hedge funds sometimes blow up holding these things, which they have often borrowed to buy. Knowing how to make money off these things, especially the interest-only crap, means knowing how to price the risks and hedge them. It means you have actuaries and programmers to generate runs of probably movements of interest rates through the future and actuarial models of how people will react to them with regards to their mortgage.
Suffice it to say that Wall Street hires piles of the brainiest people out of Harvard and MIT to figure this out and they still often fail because their assumptions about future correlations can easily go to hell. But there is a profit to be made because the damned things are so undesirable to normal investors.
If you hedge wrong, you go directly to zero when things move around.
Believe it or not investment banks have even created synthetic instruments which ACT like mortgages including having all the undesirable traits of real mortgage loan vehicles. Can you believe that? It's all weirder than you can imagine.
And if you think all that is too much to bear, you haven't heard about all the swaps derivatives out there.
>>But there is a profit to be made because the damned things are so undesirable to normal investors.
Really dumb investors just buy this stuff and don't hedge. The investment banks hedge their risks and dumb investors don't. Naive foreign buyers may have been the biggest suckers in this round of suck. We'll see. It's possible dumb state pension funds may have also bought them without even attempting hedges. The things got popular because everyone knew that hedge funds were making money off them, but maybe they didn't know precisely how.
It reminds me of the poker table. If you look around, and you don't know who the chump is, it's you.
HOW TO SOLVE THE CANAL PROBLEM IN ONE WEEK.
One fucking way to solve the ENTIRE fucking COID water canal problem.
We live in a FUCKING condo sale fucking town like Bend, because some pro-tem city judge doesn't like dogs near the old mill.
Given that city-hall can charge white trash $400/ticket for fido swimming in the Deschutes in the CITY, how about this, ...
Given that the city of bend, can pull any fucking ordinance it wants out of its ass, ... This is legal in Oregon the city-council can do anything.
Make it a $10k fucking fine per instance for dumping ANY KIND or quantity of garbage in the CITY of BEND into a COID canal. Folks along the projects are throwing their garbage bags in the canal, it doesn't take much forensics to determine who they are, also have the FUCKING BEND PIGS ride their bikes along the canal and write $10k tickets, the problem would be solved.
The COID gets saved, rural folks get to have their wells saved, the city gets a new revenue source for awhile. The county doesn't have to put ALL of rural deschutes county on city water, at the cost of over $200Million.
There is one FUCKING sleazy whore, that has the NAME bend written on his ass. This guy fucking hocked fake rolex's in a pawn shop before he was 'discovered' by Steve Jobs, and made into the APPLE evangelists. Bill Graham can't speak to god, but Guy Kawasaki sells shit to god. Everything that ever was sleazy about CALI, this is the epitome. This is the millenium poster boy for Bend, Oregon. Guy Kawasaki.
2007 Bend Venture Conference Featuring Guy Kawasaki, 10/19, Bend, Oregon
June 13, 2007
Bend Venture Conference is proud to announce Guy Kawasaki as the 2007 keynote speaker.
Guy Kawasaki is a managing director of Garage Technology Ventures, an early-stage venture capital firm, and is a columnist for Entrepreneur Magazine.
He is also ranked as one of the top 100 bloggers in the world.
Kawasaki is a nationally recognized author who most recently wrote The Art of the Start.
Overview of BVC
In its fourth year, the Bend Venture Conference is the premier regional event, focused on connecting seed and early stage companies with investment opportunities. The conference attracts entrepreneurs, investors, and service providers from across the Pacific Northwest. BVC is held in the heart of Bend and is committed to fostering economic development in Central Oregon.
It's possible dumb state pension funds may have also bought them without even attempting hedges. - tt
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Possible? Please do your homework by law they're not allowed to have more than 5%, but GUESS WHAT??
Its a two way street with leverage,
Say you buy the hedge with 5%, but they're running 10to1, and they lose it all, you get a -50% bill on YOUR PRINCIPAL. This is how its playing, this is whats going on, this is WHY USA 401K, is GONE.
The investment banks hedge their risks and dumb investors don't. Naive foreign buyers may have been the biggest suckers in this round of suck.
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I agree it may be 1/2, and the foreigners are PISSED NOT COMING BACK.
The USA folk will have lost what wasn't lost at DOT-CON, DUMB? Nah?
Since 1980's everybody thought it was their right to 10%/yr, risk free.
The next generation will be just like post-depression, t-bills at 2%, and leave it at that, unless your a fool with his money, ...
That's why pension funds and hedge funds sometimes blow up holding these things, which they have often borrowed to buy.
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Some hedges have locks of five-years, some have three months,
Right now the short term are fucked, because when the bank-run is ON, they must liquidate for penny's on the dollar.
For long-term lockup hedges, only time will tell.
Let's also remember that at one time a hedge, was an insurance policy. During the last ten years the hedge has become exactly like the 1920's leveraged trade, this is exactly what killed wall street, because when it went down you just didn't lose your money, but your lost your childrens money, e.g. you could lose MORE than your total assets, thus people jumped out of windows.
It's possible dumb state pension funds may have also bought them without even attempting hedges. The things got popular because everyone knew that hedge funds were making money off them, but maybe they didn't know precisely how.
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Normal fiduciary pension speculative limitation for a trade is 5%, but that can be per fund. I don't blame the fund, it was FUCKING granny demanding her 10%/yr, you all have to remember that it took over 20+ years to bring the most recent 'insane gambling' system about, where every fucking 'house' was creating its OWN TOXIC paper and trading it as cash, with an S&P 'AAA" stamp-of-approval.
Everybody was willing to 'Risk', the problem with risk, but definition it is NOT a positive sum game, in the mathematical sense, sometimes you lose, if you make ONE final BET AND ALL your chips on the table were borrowed, then you can LOSE more than your assets.
Welcome to post 2008 economics.
Everybody played the fucking game, because EVERYBODY was making money, and NOW everybody that played the game will lose their money and MORE, and those that didn't play the game have to watch the 'blame game' unfold.
And if you think all that is too much to bear, you haven't heard about all the swaps derivatives out there.
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We have to be careful going down that track, otherwise we'll be entering LaRouche-Ville,
Note old LaRouche was predicting a derivative meltdown in the 70's, he must be one happy pecker-wood by now.
ROFLMAO!!! This is some seriously funny shit.
The real estate / developer / builder crowd is always pissing and moaning about "takings," but I believe property owners should be required to compensate government (i.e. the taxpayers) for "givings" -- government actions that make their property more valuable, such as bringing it inside the UGB or increasing the allowable building density. Why doesn't somebody get a ballot initiative going?
>Please do your homework by law they're not allowed to have more than 5%
Time after time, we've seen traders do weird things to keep their jobs or make their bonuses. This shit so so hard to understand that a deliberate clever trader can create an internal pyramid scheme and fool even other smart people around him, let alone a regulator that shows up now and then.
Think of all the blow-ups. Most were discovered when something blew up. In a couple cases, they were discovered when some one was just flat-out doing too well. You look into it and find out he hans't made any money. He's lost $500 million when you unwind the future positions. Maybe some potential blow ups were defused before we ever heard aabout it. But lots of them have happened. Even giant banks with hundred-year histories have died in blow-ups that came from one dork in an ignored satellite office.
But back to Bend. Some in Bend thought (or at least said) that Bend would do OK even if other places slid. They weren't counting on these big events like mortgages getting painfully tight. If you're too provincial, you'll always miss the big picture. They don't have anything to say right now, except the tired old, "This is Central Oregon. This is Bend. People want to live here."
Well, guess what, people want to live in Florida, too. Lots more of them. And how's that working out?
Not just LaRouche. Buffett is expecting it too. They have happened bad enough to take out banks. But yeah, swaps aren't the topic here. Mortgages aare becaause they affect Bend now.
Holy Shit, she is HOT. She could be right, in fact whatever she says I agree, I'm a yes man, where do I sign, see the home? no, coffee? Wine? YES
................................
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The July numbers due out this week are going to show something that hasn't been seen since 1950 -- home prices declining NATIONALLY. Bend is just a microcosm of what's been happening across the country for the last three years: home prices being artificially inflated by buyers flush with too-easy credit. Bush supporters used to boast about the high rate of home ownership as evidence of the supposed health of the economy, but we haven't heard them singing that tune lately.
"Holy Shit, she is HOT."
Semi-hot, yeah. But apparently not too bright.
"Prices have to go up because they can't go down" will go down in history along with "We know where Saddam's weapons of mass destruction are" and "Mission Accomplished."
Not just LaRouche. Buffett is expecting it too.
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My point is that this was LaRouches #1 topic 30 years ago,
I remember buffet spouting homilies, he's too busy doing the Guy Kawasaki thing, with Berkshire, buffet is just another fucking evangelist,
LaRouche on the other hand is a perpetual presidential candidate.
I don't remember buffet making derivatives a #1 issue 30 years ago, that was my point.
The reason that I brought up LaRouche, is that for most people who haven't followed this "SHIT" for 30+ years, they may not realize there is NOTHING NEW HERE WHATSOEVER.
"Holy Shit, she is HOT."
Semi-hot, yeah. But apparently not too bright.
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Excuse me, I'll take my women HOT, and my BRAINS cold.
Well, guess what, people want to live in Florida, too. Lots more of them. And how's that working out?
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We're simply in a transistion, the last 20+ years has been "Have it your way",
Where do you want to live? Anything is possible.
I have asked now ten times, and I'll keep asking until I get an answer, what are the industry's in Bend that will survive, prosper, and enrich their employees during the full cycle of the bend-buuble?
The future slogan will once more be "Brother can you spare a dime".
Remember not a month ago a letter to the EDITOR in the SORE, was demanding that panhandling be banned in Bend.
Where do you want to live today? This is a non-place-bound people, first major difficulty and they're moving home to mom&dad, where ever they came from.
Some in Bend thought (or at least said) that Bend would do OK even if other places slid.
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The ONLY people who think Bend is special, are people in PDX who think its special during THEIR rainy season.
PDX we're counting on you, to BUY our condos.
>>I don't remember buffet making derivatives a #1 issue 30 years ago, that was my point.
True. Buffett really started caring only when he had to unwind the General RE futures he acquired.
LaRouche was right and early. And the vehicles are exposures are weirder and bigger now. Much bigger than 30 years ago.
Thanks to all for your insights into the mortgage issue I asked about earlier. I'm not too stupid, have a double major in MIS and Finance, built a Black-Scholes 3D-graphing program with a team I put together in my senior year back in 1982 using the only PC on campus to automatically download data from Compuserve and process it on the mainframe, and and scored in the 97th percentile on my GMATs. I've even been issued three patents on software/hardware combinations over the last 10 years regarding controlling video speed with exercise devices.
But I simply have never owned. I lived in Alta, UT, for many years and then SLC, where I didn't want to buy. I missed the last big RE dive as I was right out of college in the mid-80's, and every time I penciled it out it cost 2-4 times as much to own as rent, which just didn't make sense to me. Same since I moved here a little over two years ago. Right now my rent is about 1/4th of mortgage service on the 30+ houses for sale around my area.
I googled "structure of cdos" and came up with some enlightening articles well worth reading. The whole topic of synthetic CDOs explains a lot, i.e. the mortgage itself is not sold, only the risk in return for cash flow. And often in bits a pieces. What a effing mess that has got to be.
On another note, check out this Sacramento area developer watering the lawns of foreclosed, abandoned houses in his subdivision while he tries to sell the remaining inventory:
http://tinyurl.com/yrhjqs
It seems to be bad all over. I haven't seen anybody using a water truck to make his sub look good around here. Yet.
BTW bendbust, that last post is over the top. Great work :)
BTW, both Guy Kawasaki and Warren Buffet are good guys. Buffet publishes an annual letter to shareholders that is a must read. It's available at http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/letters.html
If that got cut off, go to
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com and click on the "Warren Buffett's Letters To Berkshire Shareholders" link. The last one was posted in March.
Guy, whom I've been in contact with off and on for the last ten years, has had ample opportunity to become a rich badass VC/vulture capitalist but has preferred to stay in the early stage startup stage. It's more fun to him, and he's a smart guy.
I'll never forgive Kawasaki for his book "The Macintosh Way." It was one painful read.
Buffett's writing, however, is always a delight to read.
Yeah, the "Mac Way" was a puff piece. There was some truth there, but a lot more wishful thinking.
Were you a Mac guy back in the day?
In the day I remember Guy Kawasaki as one sleazy dude, in the day I worked on the first generation lisa ( Alpha Prototype ), hell I worked on the apple-II in the 70's.
I remember when Steve Jobs pulled Guy Kawasaki out of his ass and made him the Apple evangelist.
True to fact he worked at a pawn shop hocking fake rolex's when Steve discovered him.
I'm sure on a real level, he's a nice guy, if he's your 'friend'.
He just reminds me of everything that is PHONY about California.
WRT the fact that he didn't make it big with his 'garage' deal, .e.g. he fiddled around with OPM during DOT-CON, same old sleaze.
Now he's hustling at seminars, ... My point is that he is PURE BEND, I hope all those that dump their $75 get what they're looking for.
I have nothing against 'GUY', its just that when I was perusing the EDCO website six months ago and saw that he was coming to the tower and was going to be the speaker-of-year I just laughed my ass off. How appropriate for the a major huckster of steve-jobs to come to Bend the land of wanna-be marketing evangelism.
Now if we could just find a Bend RE evangelist.
How about bend-bust, he would make a good evangelist of Bend RE.
Buffett's writing, however, is always a delight to read.
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I agree buffett is a pleasure, but that said he still is NO different than bill gates; bill sells windows, and warren sells berkshire,
I would still rather read HL-Mencken,
Sorry I don't know him as well as you do. Just from '96 on. He seems a good guy and I agree with a lot of his thinking. Like his treatise on hiring off craigslist in his blog recently.
Amazing the historical perspective here in Bend, though. I thought I was pretty advanced for using an 840AV to edit full screen 30fps video back in '94. Working on the Apple 2 and alpha Lisa? How did you end up in Bend?
I missed the last big RE dive as I was right out of college in the mid-80's, and every time I penciled it out it cost 2-4 times as much to own as rent, which just didn't make sense to me. - bruce
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Back in Mar or April I wrote a couple positive things on bendbubble.blogspot.com, one was "how to write lowball offers", the other was "How to become rich in Bend".
Both were sincere, I have been a negative bastard ever since.
I'm referencing the above, because there are times when you should BUY RE, perhaps in 3-5 years.
What RE does do is force you to accumulate wealth, if you read the great masters like Getty, Ford, Carnegie a consistent theme is that making money is EASY, but KEEPING it is HARD.
The article I posted called "How to be rich bend, reference books and explains exactly how its done, and why RE is important.
I wrote this to make it clear on how things really work.
Everybody in this forum is smart, brains are dime a dozen. This is why quite often you don't have to be bright to accumulate wealth.
There will be much opportunity in 3-5 years, thus I think its important to every once and awhile to step back and see the big picture.
My goal here is only to humiliate the status quo, but I do think that some younger people need to think forward about becoming the next generation of financial leaders, once ALL can be had for penny's on the dollar.
http://bendbubble.blogspot.com/2007/04/how-to-be-rich-in-bend_08.html
The "How to be rich in Bend" post is interesting, but I think it blasts 98% of the population as being lazy when the precentage is much less. When a majority of the population is working 2 or 3 jobs just to get by, just to support their kids, is that lazy?
I would postulate the lazy percentage as being nearer 20%. The other 78% is treading water as hard as they can.
When a majority of the population is working 2 or 3 jobs just to get by, just to support their kids, is that lazy?
What percentage of Bend is working 2 or 3 jobs?
I've known Guy Kawasaki for many years. Companies that he is involved with are lucky to have him spending his time on helping them find success.
http://www.guykawasaki.com/about/index.shtml
"What percentage of Bend is working 2 or 3 jobs? "
Familywise, I would guess about 80%. But I know nothing, really. Just from talking to peers.
BendBust,
Pls tell us about eating chipmunks. Can they be bred with people?
Why is dog shit sacred?
Why is there so much goose shit in Drake Park?
*
Anything is possible in Bend.
http://bendbubble.blogspot.com/2007/07/bend-oregon-is-happy-because-they-eat.html
I know Gay Kawasaki in the Biblical sense.
Companies that he is involved with are lucky to have him cum on them find success.
Success in Bend is not who know you know, but who you blow.
The "How to be rich in Bend" post is interesting, but I think it blasts 98% of the population as being lazy when the percentage is much less.
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Its NOTHING about being fucking lazy, its about being human.
Getting rich is NOT about working hard, or even working 2-3 jobs.
Long hours and hard work will make you old.
Throughout history +98% of all people end up poor, in all races, in all time, in all places, just read fucking "Richest man in Babylon" and shut the fuck up.
The 'average' fucking Bend man bought a house @ nwxc and/or shevlin, yeh he's fucked.
Less than 2% of humans ever get ahead, always been this way. Get with the fucking program and learn, or forever be fucked your family.
Lazy has nothing to do with anything, most of the worlds greatest inventions were designed and fabricated by lazy men, the wheel, the printing press, ... the fucking telephone switching system was invented by a fucking lazy undertaker.
I give up, I only offer assistance once. Read the materials suggested and/or go through fucking life as a fucking wage slave, .e.g. modern day house nigger.
Are there pic's of people in Bend having sex with chipmunks?
What if, and this is a big 'if' What if we could get Gay Kawasaki to come and live in Bend, and become 'OUR' Real Estate Evangelist?
He knows ALL the fudge-packers in cali. This could be our only chance, forget about Duncan.
Gay Kawasaki for Mayor.
FED EXEMPTS BIG BANKS FROM FDIC RULES
WRT the Citigroup bailout by the FED, lets remember that what's happening RIGHT-NOW is a Run-On-The-Banks, e.g. everyone is cashing out of the MTG funds, and they want their money back. The FED has stepped in to prevent a 'Bank-Holiday', by keeping the cash withdrawals going a 'bank-holiday' may be prevented. Almost all these banks are already out of cash, as fundamental banking cash-on hand and FDIC are effectively NIL these days.
--TT
*****
The sheer size of the potential lending capacity at Citigroup and Bank of America - $25 billion each - is a cause for unease.
Indeed, this move to exempt Citigroup casts a whole new light on the discount window borrowing that was revealed earlier this week. At the time, the gloss put on the discount window advances was that they were orderly and almost symbolic in nature. But if that were the case, why the need to use these exemptions to rush the funds to the brokerages?
Home sales hit slowest pace in 5 years
I'll bet since new home sales blipped up just barely in July and The Bulletin quickly drew all sorts of parallels as to why the fabulous news would spread to Bend, that they'll certainly cover the fact that existing sales fell for a 5th MONTH IN A ROW.
What's more, PRICES FELL FOR A RECORD 12th MONTH IN A ROW. I'm sure they'll cover that. Right?
Go Bulletin. Call DuBois. Ask her what that means. Prices down YoY first time since the depression. Is THAT good news? Does that bode well for Bend?
>>I'll bet since new home sales blipped up just barely in July...
Maybe they did. Margin of error on the new home sales is...12%!
From MSN:
More bad news for housing
There's more bad news for the housing market, according to a report released this morning.
The number of unsold "existing" homes on the market rose 2.2% in July to 3.85 million, according to the National Association of Realtors. It was the highest inventory in 16 years.
(New-home sales are tracked separately; a Commerce Department report on Friday said that new-home sales rose 2.8% in July after falling 4% in June.)
Sales of existing homes fell 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.75 million, the NAR said this morning. The inventory of unsold existing homes represented a 9.2-month supply.
OK Bulletin: We'll wait for you to cover flood of supply, 12th consecutive month of falling prices, and 5th consecutive month of falling existing homes sales... and how it will all soon spread to Bend.
Right.
The Commerce data release said...
"This is 2.8 percent (±12.0%)* above the revised June rate of 846,000 and is 10.2 percent (±12.3%)* below the July 2006 estimate of 969,000."
That's how the Bulletin reported it, right? It's misleading to report the numbers without the margin of error, and the Bulletin is never misleading.
That's how the Bulletin reported it, right? It's misleading to report the numbers without the margin of error, and the Bulletin is never misleading.
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YOU want the BULL to report the truth?
The people of Bend cannot handle the truth.
You cannot have anyone telling the truth in a town that is 99% marketing, hype, and bull-shit.
The truth is Bend will become a ghost town, and the BULL will not even notice.
The BULL will simply start laying off the few people they have once the advertisers pull the plug.
Anyone see that Breeze & Co have started advertising The Plaza condos on TV?
I remember just a scant few YEARS ago that Breeze stated that "MOST" of these units were already SOLD.
That building will be her undoing.
I thought the last time I went to The Plaza website, there was a page that showed which condos had already been sold. I can't find that page anymore.
I did not think that a single blog entry could blow my mind. I was wrong. It had it all. I laughed, I cried, I learned, I loved.
Anyone see that Breeze & Co have started advertising The Plaza condos on TV?
She is either a dang fool or someone at KTVZ is giving her free airtime. Or did you see it on the Portland channel (in which case it wouldn't be so dumb)? If it was KTVZ or KFXO, man, not so smart. NO MORE CONDO MONEY IN BEND, BECKY.
Anyway, two years ago Becky's approach was different:
Local real estate agent Becky Breeze and her husband are building a 42-unit condominium project in the Old Mill District. Breeze already has sold most of her units. She said buyers know what they want and they don't balk at prices.
"They want to live in a custom home," Breeze said. "And they don't want to sacrifice quality. They want to be close to walking trails and the mountains. They're really mobile and they have a lot of money," she said.
OK so the quote Paul was talking about ("sold most of her units") was October '05. Then in February '06, she had 8 of 42 "under contract" and hadn't even started marketing the rest.
Breeze and [her husband] expect the building to attract local buyers who travel frequently, or who simply don't want to maintain a large house, along with transplants from Southern California or the San Francisco Bay Area who are used to high-end condominium living and are looking for it in Central Oregon.
Eight units are currently under contract for prices in the range of $700,000 to $800,000. Breeze will begin marketing the rest after the building's framing is completed, around May.
It should be ready for occupancy by December.
Then in February 2007, Becky Breeze had "moved" 4 more units:
A few blocks away above the Old Mill’s retail district, The Plaza, a purely residential condominium project, has moved 12 of its 42 units so far, owner and Realtor Becky Breeze said, at prices ranging from around $600,000 to nearly $2 million, although the building won’t be move-in ready until June.
In May 2007, The Bulletin repoted that "So far, 14 of the building's 42 units are under contract." Under contract? We've heard that one before.
Also, note that in February 2006, the building was supposed to be "ready for occupancy" by December 2006. In February 2007, it was supposed to be done by June 2007. And back in August 2005, it was supposed to be done by fall 2006. So the "soldness" of the condos isn't the only place where the Breeze-supplied info hasn't matched up. Maybe some financing issues?
Would you buy a "luxury" condo from this woman?
I laughed, I cried, I learned, I loved.
Learned? THEN YOU'VE LEARNED NOTHING!
Dang, I never really built up the full timeline-horror of Breeze's load of crap regarding that place. Oy... what a nightmare.
And I believe that I also saw a "SOLD" page for The Plaza that has since gone missing. The plot thickens. The monthly carry on that thing has to be right at $100K/mo (I think someone confirmed this awhile back). A few months w/o any sales, and the profits will go bye-bye. A few more, and Becky's long slog through Bend's craptacular years to get to the bubble years will be wiped out.
Becky's Undoing: She wants you to lower your asking price, by God, by 10-20% after 2 days on the market. But not her own stuff: No way. She'll probably hold the line on The Plaza pricing until they sell that behemoth on the Courthouse steps.
And I think I saw that commercial on KTVZ. It was yesterday, and apparently the front facade was at least done enough that there was a shot of people entering & exiting.
Yeah. It was a real hotbed of activity, that. What was odd was the people were under 98 yrs old. Right away I was thinking "Becky don't get her target market...". Her buyers are going to be old, crotchety types that confuse The Plaza for an Old Folks Home.
Seriously... doesn't everyone sort of think of that place as an old folks home for the quasi-well off? I do. I assumed there would be no buyers under 70 yrs old.
Funny you say that. My wife met someone who was moving in there and she said they were a sweet old couple.
BEM's whole post got me thinking (rare), and I remember seeing an article about condo buyers re-negging on purchase agreements, over the smallest deviations of the property from the contract Miami, I think). Floorplans being off by just 1-2 inches, and stuff.
Kinda like this, but real niggly stuff:
Condo Buyers Take Developers
To Court Over Failed Promises
With once-hot condominium markets across the country in sharp decline and many real-estate professionals predicting a further weakening, some developers are facing more than a glut of unsold inventory. Angry condo buyers from Boca Raton, Fla., to San Diego are taking them to court, alleging everything from breach of contract to fraud.
Some of the lawsuits claim that the amenities featured in glossy marketing brochures and model apartments never made it into the final product. Others involve much-hyped projects that went bust, leaving hundreds of buyers with contracts for condos that will never materialize.
I wonder if Breeze hasn't had a whole bunch of prospective buyers blow up on her. That building is WAY past due, and it seems like almost anyone would have a pretty good case for bailing on their agreement, and probably getting ALL their deposit back.
I guarantee you, that's what I'd do. And especially once it (vacancies) gets rollin', it's a totally dominant strategy... even if you want the condo. Threaten to bail on solid legal grounds, and then when she's trying to save the deal, just point out the fact that the place is empty... but you'll take the pain if she knocks $200K right off. Then if she even looks like she'll take it in a 1,000 years, back off... and go -$300K. Repeat until she's in a fetal position gasping for air.
I'll also bet that there were some DuBois Specials in there: Friends Of Becky that were used as Filler, who were going to do a quick flip once they opened the doors, but saw the market go to hell, and told her No Dice on closing day.
We hardly go a day here without mentioning the CONDO-HO's.
At least Brooks is smart. Take land develop it, and sell it, low investment and risk, build one house as a model, and sell lots, or get buyers to order a home on contract.
Then there is OUR condo-ho condo. YOU HAVE to BUILD the whole place, before one unit is sold.
Now you have to pre-sell 25% just to get first financing. Now nobody on the face of the earth will loan you money to build condo's as the world is awash in inventory.
Given the contacts that Breeze has, and the FACT that as I have said ALL along that she will get bail-out, because she's TOO BIG, and TOO beautiful to fail.
Most likely the local TV, just has cut very sweet deal for this RE advert, and why not? What if all of the realtor's out of desperation start pitching their condo-ho condo's on TV? It can only please the media.
You would have to be on Pollyanna Realtor to believe in the CONDO-HO dream. Who believes this dream now? Where in the hell will the suckers come from? Is there really anyone out their in front of the TV calling?
People say commercial building is still moving forward. I don't understand how that can be.
Commercial is still very HOT.
This has been addressed ad-nauseum on this forum, for NO particular reason other than it being monday, post deschutes happy hour were we all fucked each other in the ass for hours, all the while wearing our Gay Kawasaki Jewelery.
Ok, it goes like this ....
1.) You build a condo, you sell zilch until its done, bad investment,
2.) Single family home are fucked, too many,...
3.) Commercial is just a fucking box, and to date there seems to be NEVER enough boxes of bars,coffee shops, ... ITS JUST A FUCKING BOX, the cheapest thing in the fucking world to build, unlike a mcMansion with granite counters, or a fucking condo.
So you build a fucking EMPTY box, and then you find some sucker to sign a five year triple net lease, ( there are tons of dreamers ), everybody in the world wants to own his very own coffee shop. So you get them to sign the lease, and its quite easy to do a postive cash flow.
It's impossible to positive cash-flow on condos or single-family, or multiple-family, but with commercial, again just an empty fucking box, they cash-flow. The bank loves a positive cash-flow, it means that the person has a remote chance of NOT defaulting.
Ok, end of story, so you have all this fucking REIT money with NO where to go except commercial.
Need I write fucking more? BENDBB stands next to me bend over with his guy-kawasaki mask on, I must go.
--TT
Fine, so people will rent out all the space downtown for their hopeless vanity businesses.
But what about all the office space that's being built? How the hell will you fill that? What about these office condos you buy instead of rent? What about the "live upstairs, work downstairs" condos for sale in NW Crossing.
Sure, it's all the builders can build now. But if they're all doing it, it seems like there's a glut tomorrow.
You build a condo, you sell zilch until its done, bad investment,
Good point. I've never bought a condo & never will (unless I turn senile & mistake it for an old folks home), but it seems you can't take title until the thing is done. And if it's a multi-story beast, like Breeze's, that bad boy has to be largely completed.
The economics of that are entirely different from a phased development. You gotta go balls out on a condo & hope like hell it all works & suckers are still on the line when construction is done. Plus, with all the lawsuits, you are sort of at the mercy of buyers all coming thru, cuz if they start tasting blood in the water, it's all over.
Lesson: Next time Becky... build faster.
What about the "live upstairs, work downstairs" condos for sale in NW Crossing.
My God, talk about your hideous financial albatross. If your little retail venture doesn't work, what do you do? Landlord, that's what. What if they fire up a lard rendering factory downstairs?
Man, with live/work units, you are just screwed if you are not the one "working" it. Bundling your "life" with your work is a HORRIBLE idea... this'll go down with tube-tops & hula-hoops.
Live work units are basically what Chinese do, while it works for them, you don't see many US folk doing that YET!
A live/work condo, is simply a condo that can't find a fucking sucker.
In the real world ground level is commercial, and above ground is residential. End of fucking story.
In a market where nothing is fucking selling, you have to pull a new notion out of your fucking ass.
The other perspective is ZONING. Often in a RES nieghborhood the city will NOT let your build COMM, but guess fucking what, if you call it 'work/live' they'll let you build a FUCKING commercial PIG in RES, my guess is this latter is really whats going on.
All this said, its ALL fucking irrelevant, because a CONDO HO FUCKING CONDO, is A FUCKING CONDO.
What kind of fucking idiot would buy a condo with fucking HOA's that Breeze or Dubois can pull out their ass as soon as they need cash-flow?
Lastly a FUCKING condo is NOT commercial. A fucking condo is a BIG fucking building that must be fully finished with tons of little boxes inside that need to be finished, a COMMERCIAL is a self contained empty box,
Good point. I've never bought a condo & never will (unless I turn senile & mistake it for an old folks home), but it seems you can't take title until the thing is done.
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MOST folks, and by that I mean +99% have to borrow to buy a condo.
A bank isn't going to loan money on a condo that doesn't have an occupancy permit.
Getting an occupancy permit requires that everyone has signed everything off. Which means everything is done, and I mean fucking everything
As we all know in the real world, getting that last 5% done, in the real world can be 90% of the effort, from what I see of "The Plaza" is a big fucking box with windows, started in 2005, and still not 'DONE', the bank draws MUST be getting hard to finish,
Given that the $2M condo penthouses will require gold-plated counters, and toilets. I ask where in the hell is this MONEY coming from?
The TV ad's MUST be the last remnant of desperation. Note also on that subject that her website lists herself as a TV-MARKETING expert, so she could very well be using inside connections.
Note also Before HOLLERN came to bend to pull Brooks Resources out of Brooks-Shevlin in the 1960's, that Hollern worked as a TV Anchorman in Montana. What I'm saying is a lot of these BEND HUCKSTERS are all old time TV evangelists.
What about these office condos you buy instead of rent? What about the "live upstairs, work downstairs" condos for sale in NW Crossing.
--TT
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First of all the rhetorical question was "Why is commercial is still doing well", then in response were talking about condo's. This is like changing the subject 180 deg. A condo is a fucking CONDO, its just an APT complex, that you can 'BUY' a unit. End of fucking story.
What we have in BEND, is that Breeze&ASS have over-built their fucking condo's, and they cannot sell them to anyone. Thus they keep repositioning their units to be whatever the fuck they want to call them. This week commercial is still HOT, so BREEZE&ASS call their condos "COMMERCIAL", that don't MAKE IT FUCKING SO.
I think I'll start calling my prick a cunt, will that make it so? I think I'll go downtown and whore myself, given that their are already too many male whores in Bend, I think I'll call myself a woman. I wonder if anyone will notice?
With regards to work/live I think I addressed that earlier, its a legal ZONING defn in Oregon, and NWXC is using it to make avail MORE commercial. Whether it works is another subject, given the lack of live-real-people in NWXC I think its a stupid fucking business decision.
Here's a rhetorical? Hey Duncan are you going to open a Pegagus III in NWXC? Great retail, lots of traffic, good parking, NO street events to date...
I'll say one last thing about work/live, the way sub-divisions are built in pristine Oregon, is that you call them resorts, and in the residential neighborhood the way you shoe-horn a commercial is call it work/live.
Read the below VERY carefully.
Sales Fall Again for Existing Homes
Slump May Worsen In Coming Months
By Dina ElBoghdady and Tomoeh Murakami Tse
Washington Post Staff Writers
Tuesday, August 28, 2007; Page D01
Sales of existing U.S. homes fell in July for the fifth consecutive month, prices continued to erode and the supply of single-family homes rose to a 16-year high by one key measure, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The housing figures, released yesterday, showed that sales of previously owned single-family homes, townhouses, condominiums and cooperatives were down 9 percent from a year ago. Sales fell 0.2 percent from June, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.75 million.
The sign stands outside an unsold new home in the east Denver suburb of Aurora, Colo., on Sunday, Aug. 19, 2007. The Commerce Department reported Friday that new-home sales rose 2.8 percent in July, after falling 4 percent in June. The increase in July lifted sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 870,000 units. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
The sign stands outside an unsold new home in the east Denver suburb of Aurora, Colo., on Sunday, Aug. 19, 2007. The Commerce Department reported Friday that new-home sales rose 2.8 percent in July, after falling 4 percent in June. The increase in July lifted sales to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 870,000 units.
Stock markets reacted mildly yesterday to the news, dipping slightly even though the home-sales report beat Wall Street expectations.
The Realtors association attributed the sales decline to mortgage disruptions that have kept some potential buyers on the sidelines and left others in the lurch as several mortgage companies shut down, yanked away the loans they approved or altered the terms of those loans.
The July figures do not reflect the deepening credit crunch that rocked global financial markets this month, making it more difficult to borrow money. Data released last week that showed a rise in sales of new homes was skewed for the same reason, said experts who track the industry.
"I don't take solace in any of the July numbers because they were put to bed before the market froze in August," said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com. "We have to wait until September or October to fully understand the scope of the fallout."
Sales of new homes, which rose 2.8 percent in July, are viewed as more timely because they reflect signed contracts, even though they are drawn from a small sample of sales and do not take contract cancellations into account.
The report on existing homes is thought to be more comprehensive because existing homes make up 85 percent of the housing market. The report is considered a lagging indicator because it captures closed transactions negotiated mostly in May and June.
"We all have to brace ourselves for tougher news ahead based on what's going on in the mortgage market," said Michael Larson, an analyst at Weiss Research.
Most alarming is the excess supply of homes on the market, Larson said. If no more single-family houses were added to the inventory, it would take 9.2 months to sell off the current stock at the current sales pace, yesterday's report said. Inventory now is at its highest level in relation to sales since 1991. Add previously owned condos, townhomes and co-ops to the mix, and the inventory rises to a 9.6-month supply. The supply of existing condos rose by 20 percent in July.
The glut of homes contributed to a 0.6 percent decline in prices. The median home price in July was $228,900, meaning half the homes sold for more and half for less. Larson expects the prices to fall even more in coming months.
From a home seller's perspective, that might mean more bad news, said Nigel Gault, an economist at the research firm Global Insight. Like many analysts, Gault anticipates more foreclosed properties coming on to the market in the months ahead.
"If you're a seller, you're going to be competing with all these extra homes already on the market and you'll be competing with banks that repossessed homes and might be willing to settle for a lower price," Gault said.
Heading into the Labor Day weekend, traders had little news to mull over except for yesterday's housing numbers, but they reacted mildly to the dip in sales.
The numbers "clearly showed that we're not even close to being out of the woods in terms of weakness in housing," said Les Satlow, portfolio manager at Cabot Money Management.
"I don't take solace in any of the July numbers because they were put to bed before the market froze in August," said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com. "We have to wait until September or October to fully understand the scope of the fallout."
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The above should be pasted by the toilet, just wait until turkey-day, and then even the BULL will be signing a new tone.
Honestly I think the intersting numbers are going to be third quarter, because August is when MTG's were complete shutdown. Post august 2007 80% of BUYERS have been banned. Thus at the very most we'll see 20% of prior sales.
Prices?? like the great depression we're still in paralysis, just need a few years of defaults to to loosen up things.
Just go to auctions, and listen, and watch. Weekly at deschutes country courthouse. See if there are ANY buyers, and compare what is being paid to the country assessment, when they start selling for 1/2 assessment you know that the bottom is near collapse.
"RE prices cannot go any lower"
When super babe up in Redmond said that last week we all just shook our heads.
But the more I think about this statement the more I think it was a signal.
We in Central Oregon, must reach into our own pockets and purchase these inventory's its a civic duty to protect the RE industry.
The prices cannot go lower, because if they do, a lot of beautiful people are going to get fucked.
A lot of beautiful realtors told their customers that Central Oregon RE only goes up, if prices goes down that makes them look like liars or fools.
Thus prices CANNOT go lower. I hope you all understand the scope of the problem.
The supply of existing condos rose by 20 percent in July.
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It's not a condo anymore, its a bird, its a plane. Too many fucking condos. Solution, don't call your condo a condo.
CondoTel? CondoMondo? LiveWorkyDorky? Affordable-Plantation? Senior-Center? Section-8-housing?
Ahh, ... Prisons ... the fastest growing industry in America.
If Mrs. Breeze&ASS can just turn their condo's into work-release centers, they can house inmates, and get free labor. 'House Nigger' call centers right in Bend, competing with Bangalore. iSky now has competition.
Talking about building sub-divisions in remote areas and calling them resorts. Here's a change of subject, MT Bachelor is going to borrow 3300 acres ( from teh US FOREST SERVICE, aka CITIZENRY ), and build a vast forest of high-density condos @ the mountain.
Read carefully SECRET 'master plan', SECRET 'master developer', sounds like old Kuratek of Juniper-Ridge has FOUND a NEW JOB.
This smells like Brooks, can't make money on Condos? How about getting free US federal land and selling lots to the rich? Just one more reason why Bend will become a ghost town, 3300 acres sub-division on the westside mt bachelor BUTT, why in the hell would anyone come down the hill? OH, and did I mention golf courses? The issue is SUMMER, everyone knows you cannot MAKE money in the winter.
A history in Bend, a future at Bachelor
Ski area's new president is crafting a master plan
By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin
Published: August 28. 2007 5:00AM PST
The view from Matt Janney’s office at the base of Mt. Bachelor ski area near the expansive parking lot might be quite different in five, 10 or 15 years.
That’s because the resort’s new president and general manager — who spent the past four years as president and general manager for three Lake Tahoe-area resorts owned by Park City, Utah-based Powdr Corp., also Mt. Bachelor’s parent company — will embark soon on a long-term planning process that could change the look and future direction of the mountain.
The changes could include a new lodge to replace the 1960s-era West Village Lodge, increased focus on summer operations, new lifts and other capital improvement projects that have yet to be determined.
Janney, who took over the resort’s top job in July, could not give specifics on the resort’s new master plan, which would be a three- to 15-year vision of how the resort would be developed in the future.
“There are a number of things I’d like to do,” he said.
“But what I’d like to do and what we will be able to do are two different things.”
The master-planning process, funding for which Powdr Corp. has approved, will take about a year and involve heavy input from businesses and the community, Janney said. Ultimately, creating a new master plan for the 3,683-acre resort will require approval from the U.S. Forest Service, which owns the land, he said.
Mt. Bachelor is the most heavily visited ski resort in Oregon, drawing on average more than a half-million skiers and snowboarders per year, according to the Pacific Northwest Ski Areas Association. It’s also Central Oregon’s main winter attraction, boosting sales in the region’s $498 million-a-year tourism economy.
But other resorts, particularly in the Mount Hood area, are tightening the competition for visitors and the need for improved services, Janney said.
His wish list for an improved mountain will be dictated by a lengthy approval process and cost, he said.
Customers will notice other changes almost immediately, most notably higher prices for daily tickets and season passes, which will be announced later this week.
“We’ve got a great product and we’ll price it to what we think our product is worth,” he said. “I’m not sure how much yet, but it’s the cost of doing business.”
Janney cited rising operating expenses for things like wages, fuel and equipment for the planned price hikes.
Janney declined to elaborate on operational issues before his arrival, but he acknowledged that he’s addressing lift breakdowns, problems with lift gates, slope grooming and customer service.
“I’d like to say those problems are behind (us),” he said. “They are things we’re going to work on, but I’ve only been here two months. We’re going to focus on what’s attainable.”
Janney vowed to spend more time on the mountain interacting with staff and customers.
“How we treat our customers and their experiences on the mountain will make a huge difference as changes take place,” he said.
Destined for Bend
Janney, 52, has had a vision for the mountain from an early age.
He grew up in Portland, but he spent summers east of the Cascades collecting rocks with his parents in the Steens Mountain Wilderness area. When he graduated high school, he wanted to live in Bend, he said.
“I told my parents, as soon as I graduated high school that I was moving to Bend,” he said. “I knew that’s where I wanted to be.”
After three years as a smokejumper for the U.S. Forest Service and three years in other fire-related operations, Janney took a job as a lift operator at Mt. Bachelor in 1976.
He became lift operations supervisor the following year and spent time on the ski patrol. He worked his way up through the ranks, gaining further knowledge along the way from the likes of Bill Healy, Mt. Bachelor’s founder, and others.
He pursued life as a cowboy in the Eastern Oregon desert for two summers and took classes at Central Oregon Community College until he began working full time at Mt. Bachelor, he said.
“I never thought that I’d be in this position, but by the early 1980s I knew it was a career worth pursuing,” he said.
By 2001, Janney had become a rising star in the ski world, gaining recognition for his consistency and reliability, said Scott Kaden, president of Pacific Northwest Ski Areas Association, based in Hood River.
Janney received the association’s Tower of Excellence Award, given to a ski area manager from within the association’s five-state area, Kaden said.
By 2003, Janney had become director of operations at Mt. Bachelor.
He took over at three Lake Tahoe resorts — Alpine Meadows, Boreal Mountain Resort and Soda Springs Mountain Resort — also owned by Powdr Corp., in 2003.
During his time there, he implemented a process of measuring the resorts’ carbon footprint, or their ecological impact, he said.
Some steps taken included changing to biodiesel-driven buses and to more eco-friendly products, and dramatically expanding recycling programs, he said.
Similar steps will occur at Mt. Bachelor, Janney said.
Janney’s local ties will help, Kaden said.
“It’s an especially strategic move for (Powdr Corp.) because Matt considers Central Oregon home,” he said. “He’s had a long career there and really knows the mountain. If you pull a person in from Colorado or Utah, they don’t know the mountain. It’s a distinct advantage.”
Hearing Janney’s plans at Mt. Bachelor, Kaden said change is a necessary part of survival in the competitive ski industry.
“In general, the general manager has to keep in touch with his marketplace, stay abreast of trends, and continue to reinvent his ski area,” Kaden said. “He has to be innovative, understand what the marketplace wants and stay ahead of the competitor. Matt has a keen awareness of that. He demonstrated that at Alpine Meadows and I’m sure he’ll do the same at Mt. Bachelor.”
Bend PIGS above and beyond the FUCKING LAW. This is a good one, the COP that got caught running his scooter over 100 MPH over Santiam is a Bend cop name 'Church', and the city of Bend is going to give him a medal of honor for safe driving. A real fucking role model for law and order in Bend. The issue here is Bend cops are a fucking un-bridled force of power, and the police chief needs to be canned. The Mayor needs to quit using the cops as WHORES to sell condos, e.g. make sure no dogs are seen near the old mill. Bend is SO fucked that the cops think they can cruise 100+ MPH, and evade police a fucking FELONY, yet the fucking City of Bend is so fucking in DEBT to the cops for help sell fucking condos, they don't give a fuck about public safety.
Bend officer accused of eluding state trooper
Associated Press - August 28, 2007 12:55 AM ET
BEND, Ore. (AP) - The Oregon State Police says an off-duty Bend police officer was arrested following a high-speed chase that ended near Santiam Pass.
Police say 38-year-old Buckley Church was riding a motorcycle Friday with his 16-year-old daughter on the back.
A state trooper says he attempted to stop Church after clocking him at 81 miles per hour.
The trooper says he activated his lights and siren, but the motorcycle passed vehicles at speeds reaching 100 miles per hour before finally stopping on Highway 20.
Church was charged with felony attempt to elude a police officer, reckless driving, and recklessly endangering another person.
Bend Police Chief Andy Jordan says he has yet to decide whether Church will be placed on paid administrative leave, pending results of an investigation.
5,000 fucking acre CONDO CITY to be built between FUCKING BEND & SISTERS.
Developer wants to donate 28,000 Central Oregon acres and build
withing another 5,000
Posted by The Oregonian August 27, 2007 06:56AM
Categories: Central Oregon
The Sisters Nugget reports on a proposal by Fidelity National Financial to build a planned unity development of 5,000 of 33,000 acres, but with very very low housing density.
Skyline Forest is a massive tract of private land east of Three Creek Road between Sisters and Bend. For decades, even as it was logged for timber, local horsemen have ridden its trails, hikers have explored its woods and residents of Plainview and Bend have looked out on its green vista laid against the Three Sisters.
Fidelity National Financial, owners of the 33,000-acre parcel - three times bigger than the Sisters School District - are now offering up a proposal that would allow the Deschutes Basin Land Trust (DBLT) to preserve about 28,000 acres as a community forest.
In exchange for donating that land to DBLT, Fidelity is seeking the right to develop a residential community on some 5,000 acres. While the exact location of the proposed development has yet to be determined, it will very likely lie in the northeastern quadrant of the forest closest to Sisters.
Any such project would require special legislation. Such legislation could come in the form of an amendment to Community Forests Authority legislation.
Winning legislation means winning broad public acceptance. Fidelity plans a series of workshops with local communities to seek input on their plans. Those could start as early as next month.
The data is out ...
The S&P/Case-Shiller(R) U.S. National Home Price Index Posts a Record Annual Decline in the 2nd Quarter of 2007
PR Newswire
August 28, 2007: 09:40 AM EST
NEW YORK, Aug. 28 /PRNewswire/ -- Data through June released today by Standard & Poor's for its S&P/Case-Shiller(R) Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows continued negative annual returns in the U.S. National Home Price Index, the 10-City Composite and the 20-City Composite, as well as 15 of the 20 metro area indices.
The annual returns of the U.S. National Home Price Index, the 10-City Composite, and the 20-City Composite shows all three still yielding negative returns as of June 2007. The quarterly S&P/Case-Shiller(R) U.S. National Home Price Index -- which covers all nine U.S. census divisions -- was down 0.9% from Q1 2007 and down 3.2% from Q2 2006.
"The pullback in the U.S. residential real estate market is showing no signs of slowing down," says Robert J. Shiller, Chief Economist at MacroMarkets LLC. "The year-over-year decline reported in the 2nd quarter of 2007 for the National Home Price Index is the lowest point in its reported history, which dates back to January 1987. On a regional level 17 of the 20 metro areas are showing declines in their annual growth rate from what was reported in May."
During this cycle, Boston was the first metro area to report negative year-over-year returns, back in April 2006. In June 2007, Boston showed an improvement in its annual rate of decline from the value reported in May, - 3.9% versus -4.3% reported in May. Boston has shown improvement since the beginning of the year, where its annual growth rate measured -5.5%. More data however, is needed to determine whether Boston, whose growth rate turned negative before other metro areas, is truly the first metro area to turn around.
The table below summarizes the results for June 2007. The S&P/Case- Shiller(R) Home Price Indices are revised for the 24 prior months, based on the receipt of additional source data. More than 20 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to http://www.homeprice.standardandpoors.com.
2007 Q2/ 2007 Q1/
2007 Q2 2007 Q1 2006 Q4 1-Year
Level Change (%) Change (%) Change (%)
U.S. National Index 183.89 -0.9% -0.9% -3.2%
June 2007 June/May May/April 1-Year
Metropolitan Area Level Change (%) Change (%) Change (%)
Atlanta 136.12 0.8% 0.6% 1.6%
Boston 171.30 0.2% 0.8% -3.7%
Charlotte 135.05 1.2% 1.1% 6.8%
Chicago 165.96 0.2% -0.1% -0.7%
Cleveland 118.54 0.1% 0.8% -3.6%
Dallas 126.53 0.8% 0.6% 1.6%
Denver 138.09 1.3% 1.1% -1.0%
Detroit 109.57 -0.5% -2.4% -11.0%
Las Vegas 221.86 -1.3% -0.8% -5.1%
Los Angeles 262.12 -0.4% -0.1% -4.1%
Miami 264.89 -1.7% -1.5% -4.8%
Minneapolis 164.35 0.0% -0.2% -3.8%
New York 208.52 -0.8% -0.8% -3.4%
Phoenix 212.52 -0.7% -0.5% -6.6%
Portland 185.76 0.3% 0.9% 4.5%
San Diego 231.37 -0.2% -0.4% -7.3%
San Francisco 209.48 -0.7% -0.3% -4.0%
Seattle 191.92 0.7% 0.9% 7.9%
Tampa 219.37 -1.2% -0.9% -7.7%
Washington 233.52 -0.8% -0.3% -7.0%
Composite-10 217.07 -0.5% -0.4% -4.1%
Composite-20 199.18 -0.4% -0.3% -3.5%
MT Bachelor is going to borrow 3300 acres ( from teh US FOREST SERVICE, aka CITIZENRY ), and build a vast forest of high-density condos @ the mountain.
Not unless the Forest Service has totally changed its policies for the use of the land Mt. B sits on. It won't even let Bachelor have night skiing. If you're talking about building a "ski village" up there, well, in a way that's the only way to take MTB to the next level, but it'll probably never ever happen.
I'm calling bullshit the idea that "commercial property" is only retail. It's not. I looked it up in several places. Office buildings are indeed "commercial."
Combinations of living/office are often called "flex."
The developers doing the office buildings and the flex building are commercial developers, and they claim to be doing gangbusters.
I'm highly skeptical of the need for much more office space in Bend.
And if I were going to put 10 guys in an office, I'd sure as hell rent the building, not buy it. It's easy to pull up and move a few guys who just need desks, phone, and Internet. If I wanted to own my own office building, I'd only buy it if prices were dirt cheap. Why add Real Estate risk to my own business risk?
So, granted, "retail" will fill up with dreamers. But I don't see much demand for other types of commercial.
The NW Crossing flex buildings blow my mind. "Sure, dude, I'll buy your building, but only if there are enough outlets for my grow-lights."
I'm calling bullshit the idea that "commercial property" is only retail.
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Nobody here ever used the word 'retail'.
I'm calling double dare to your bullshit call on bullshit.
With all the interesting things going on why make up hypothetical bullshit?
Now the BULL in their article on Old Mill referred to 'IT' as retail, but NO WHERE in this blog do ANY of us. IHTBYB pasted their story in reference to the Old Mill, but no where does he say that commercial means retail.
I concur on your point commercial is commercial. From MY point of view being a LANDLORD of both,
"ALL is residential, except that which is commercial"
End of fucking story.
City Law in Oregon, and I have to deal with this SHIT all the time, means that "DOING business" you must be commercial, there is a ton of ways you can do business for instance if your whore house is only servicing Brooks on a contract, then its wholesale, and not retail, in most of our minds retail is 'walk-in', which is a very small part of over-all business activity.
That said since we're on the subject, and I ignored the BULL on this issue. MY HUMBLE opionion is that the OLD MILL IS ALL RE, MTG, and ESCROW, and TITLE. Thus the BULL is correct the OLD-MILL IS ALL RETAIL.
On the other hand you have folks hidden in those buildings that are doing who gives a fuck,
The real issue here is that condos cannot sell as condos, so MOST recently they have been converted to commercial offices, now generally the RETAIL would be on the ground-floor.
Knowing MRS-BREEZE there are probably adult-video stores on hidden floors of her condo building.
Given that Bend is Alice-in-Wonderland. Lets just say that ALL Breeze Condos are NOW walmart stores, or hell they're now the State Department, or Department of War, ... Its endless once you can pull shit our of your ass, and have all the power of city hall behind you.
Not unless the Forest Service has totally changed its policies for the use of the land Mt. B sits on. -BEM
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Well I agree, but on the other hand during a depression ANYTHING is possible, as we need to create jobs.
MT B, is getting out of the winter biz, and getting into the summer biz, the VAST majority of that 1/2billion tourist dollar is made during july/august, and always has. MT B's new owners are just now getting with the program.
GOLF COURSES AND CONDOS, right underneath MT-B.
I'll say something on this 'work/live' issue, and I don't think its well thought out by the city or the condo-ho's.
I do residential, commercial, and work/live.
The res is easy, the commercial hard to find, but generally they stay 5+ years,
The work/live is the worst, it attracts the creeps who cannot afford to do either, so they 'think' they can do both by paying rent once.
Any beginner-101 entrepreneur is NO fucking long term goal of living at work, its usually a houseboat or yacht.
So what kind of fuck-head would buy a live-work unit?
As a RE investor/landlord, knowing how fucking hard they are to rent, and given the nature thats it attracts flaky biz people, .i.e. short-term its a terrible biz investment cash flow.
Get back to commercial why is it HOT? because the box is cheap the rent is high, locked in with a good tenant on a five year triple net,...
A bank is going to look at a work/live investment unit and LAUGH there fucking ass off, its just a CONDO with commercial lipstick.
I think I'll start calling my prick a cunt, will that make it so?
Dude, I believe that if you want it bad enough, you CAN BE a Prick AND a Cunt! Aim for the stars Baby! You CAN do it!
Bulletin today.
Funny, local Realtors were all over the nationwide flat new homes data, but today they have nothing to say about the existing homes data. They'll probably have nothing to say tomorrow about the Case-Shiller numbers.
And the buses. Hilarious. All six sitting. Three busted, and the other three with inadequate air conditioning. Oooo. Stinky.
We bought those cheap-ass pieces of shit because The City Council and Realtors were tired of Bend being made fun of for not having a bus system. Start getting bad press and these idiots will do anything to make the laughing stop. Even if it caauses more laughing later.
From beckybreeze.com:
The Plaza´s perfect location gives you immediate access to the River and miles of River Trails. You´ll also love the fact that you are steps away from The Shops at the Old Mill where you can browse through The Gap, Victoria's Secret, Banana Republic, American Eagle Outfitters, Saxons Fine Jewelers as well as a host of other Boutique Stores. For your dining pleasure you can take a stroll over to Seattle's famous Anthony's Restaurant, Bella Cuccina, Red Robin, Old Mill Martini Bar, Greg´s Grill and others. If it´s entertainment you´re looking for then The Plaza´s location is perfectly situated to enjoy some of the hottest Artists today at the Les Schwab Amphitheater. Perhaps you´d like to catch a movie at Regal Old Mill 16 Cinemas or simply enjoy some art appreciation at Lahaina Galleries. No living environment puts you closer to the heart of the action then The Plaza.
I'm slow, but it's just dawned on me that Breeze is totally mismarketing this white elephant. This talk of "action", and "get up and go" activities is completely wrongheaded. I don't know of a single human being under 60 who would want to live in an Old Folks Home conversion condo. Does anyone else?
This thing is an old folks home pure & simple. If Breeze wants to get 'er done, she should start talking about wheelchair access, free geritol enimas, and "No one with $1MM+ on the line will be allowed to code in the atrium without at least a token attempt at restarting their heart". THESE are real amenities for the geezer set.
Becky, seriously, look at the first 5 people who have (supposedly) bought there (not counting the filler friends & family buyers). They're probably OLD as hell, damn near dead. Start marketing to these geezers, not 30 & 40 somethings. No one under 95 yrs old would be caught dead in one of these "auto-tombs". The Plaza is where people are going to die, not live, and you need to target that market. "Victoria's Secret"? My God, that is scaring away grama at warp speed.
The City Council and Realtors were tired of Bend being made fun of for not having a bus system.
And had the stupid bastards either A) done some DUE DILIGENCE, or B) Waited & patiently gone thru Federal funding processes where they GIVE YOU 90% of the purchase price on BRAND STINKIN' NEW BUSES, we'd be OK. But they went the FRANTIC-ASS STUPID IDIOT ROUTE, as usual. Cost Bend taxpayers hundreds of thousands, as usual.
Since we're in a prop tax collection frenzy of untold proportions, all is well. In a few years when we're dead stinkin' broke, this sort of thing will be the grounds for expulsion from City Council. Or worse.
Funny, local Realtors were all over the nationwide flat new homes data, but today they have nothing to say about the existing homes data. They'll probably have nothing to say tomorrow about the Case-Shiller numbers.
What I find interesting is my own reaction to this sort of thing. It used to be a sort of "Rage Against The Machine" reaction where I had to "defend" the other side. I don't have that at all anymore. There's nothing to really defend.
Sometime in the past 6-9 months, I went from "thinking" I was right to just plain "knowing" I was right. Without the slightest inkling about defending my position. Only thing at issue is HOW FAR it's going to plummet.
Hmmmm.. and I always get a little uneasy when I am this smug, too.
Only thing at issue is HOW FAR it's going to plummet.
Hmmmm.. and I always get a little uneasy when I am this smug, too.
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They're bailing this thing out already to the tune of 100Billion plus in the just the last two weeks, they could be just postponing the day or reckoning until after the election....
>>They're bailing this thing out already to the tune of 100Billion plus in the just the last two weeks, they could be just postponing the day or reckoning until after the election....
Well, Bernanke doesn't seem to be helping the cause. He's still more worried about inflation.
http://bend.craigslist.org/off/375142489.html
There's a nifty office condo. Vision Plaza. I don't think it's meant to be lived in at all. It's a box. Wonder what they end up selling for.
I'm slow, but it's just dawned on me that Breeze is totally mis-marketing this white elephant.
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Just how fucking stupid Breeze is, well thats only a matter of time.
What about the people who have loaned her $$$ +10 MILLION for this elephant? Or I should say elephants, ...
In the 'day' I remember it was going to be ALL the rich coming to Bend, ... Now its ???
Moodys says credit card defaults are up 30% over last year.
No surprise there. Can't bail your credit cards out with a refi or a HELOC anymore.
Plus, probably more spending on the plastic now.
A couple weeks ago we heard that there are more payments that are "late." Late means over 30-days late.
We've also heard people are bailing on houses but trying to keep their credit cards and cars. I guess it's scarier to lose your caar or your Mastercard than your house.
FED bailing this thing out already to the tune of 100Billion ...
Bernanke doesn't seem to be helping the cause. He's still more worried about inflation. - TTT
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Three weeks ago on monday Merrill announced county-wide bankruptcy, that week investors wanted their cash back from "country wide investments", by friday there was a run on the bank, the FED stepped in an gave country-wide $30billion CASH, and dropped the discount-rate.
The bank-run was been covered, for now, soon it will be WASH0-MU doing the same,...
THESE ARE BAILOUTS. In a 'real capitalist' country the investors and the bankers would have gone bankrupt.
WASHMU & COUNTRYWIDE were too big to fail.
This whole thing is being POSTPONED until after the election, these are all loans, insolvent company's cannot be kept on life-support forever.
Bernanke is worried about a depression, his handlers are worried about inflation, DUBYA is worried about NOT destroying the Republican Party.
What are Office Condominiums?
business economy
Ok, office-condo's are a new name for what we in the 1980's used to call "incubator flats", e.g. a place where new businesses could share a toilet, fax machine, sexectary, ... they're quite popular right now, e.g. until the economy stops, and then startup's will be doing what they always do "THE FUCKING GARAGE", this is where most business is born, HP, TEK,... Not a fucking incubator-flat.
Note an 'office-condo' has NOTHING to do with work/live, its just sharing office shit. Old idea with a new name, always TOO fucking expensive for what you get. A home office is for people who want to stay in business, while small.
What are Office Condominiums?
business economy
Office condominiums work much like their private housing counterparts. Instead of renting a suite of offices, some companies purchase an individual unit in an office condominium complex. The common areas are co-owned by all of the tenants and a board usually oversees landscaping and other maintenance issues. Office condominiums are often created as part of a mixed-use renovation in downtown areas of medium to smaller cities.
There are some advantages and disadvantages to office condominiums. One plus is increased ownership rights compared to renting or leasing equivalent space. Rental properties are always under the control of a landlord, which means that monthly rent could be raised or the lease terminated with short notice to the tenant. By owning the space, companies in office condominiums can avoid such surprises. The monthly mortgage should remain relatively stable over the life of the loan.
"For your dining pleasure you can take a stroll over to Seattle's famous Anthony's Restaurant ..."
From Bend to Seattle? Damn, that's some "stroll"!
"GOLF COURSES AND CONDOS, right underneath MT-B."
First, Mt. B (Powdr Corp.) does NOT own Skyline Forest.
Second, the owners of Skyline Forest are talking about mansions (not McMansions but the real thing) on huge lots (several acres), NOT condos.
I think you need a remedial reading course.
"We bought those cheap-ass pieces of shit because The City Council and Realtors were tired of Bend being made fun of for not having a bus system."
I really don't think the realtors gave a rat's ass. As for the city, there's a state requirement to have an adequate public transportation system. Dial-a-Ride didn't cut it. The city really had no choice but to establish some sort of fixed-route system.
That said, there was a GROSS failure to perform due diligence before purchasing those lemons.
What I find really sort of interesting about this housing debacle, is it's like those nature shows, where really, really slow moving lava is rolling down a hillside, and there's no question "if" it's going to take out towns & houses, just "when". I don't know if the stock market has had to discount such a thing in modern history. A slow, inevitable economic crushing force that will get far worse before it gets better.
I wonder if we're in for these jarring lurches in stock market prices lower every few months, as the market discounts the horror of trillions in spending power just evaporating, and the perturbation throughout the economy. We've NEVER owed this much on assets that were actually going down before our eyes. And it's the biggest store of value in the American economy.
It just seems surreal what is going on. Feels like "The Fall Of Rome" as noted on earlier comments... Like this is our Waterloo.
People who want to portray Bend as ideal hate to be embarrassed.
http://tinyurl.com/yqzoqf
I'm have the pleasure of renting a home right next to the new NWX Renaissance live/work project. They started excavating, forming about a month ago. They set the forms, rebar, etc. Now the thing has been sitting for close to 3 weeks. I'm wandering how much cash they really have. It wouldn't surprise me if at some point they start having cash flow problems? It'll be very interseting as to who buys these things. I'd be very concerned if I owned my current rental. They are big, common walled, ugly suns of bitches. I just don't see who the target customer is? I've seen advertisements for these in the Alaska/Horizon on board magazines. Randy or whatever his name is must be shitting his pants right now. I saw his other development out on Shevlin Park Rd the other day. They are asking big bucks for these so-called larger lot homes. They look like the exact same floor plans as the homes on the SW side of town. The only difference is the lot sizes increased to 7k sq feet from 5k sq ft. They start at like $700k. I know the homes in the SW aren't selling. I heard they're selling the lots right now?
There are so many homes for sale in NWX it blows my mind. They just keep building. They probably have 15-20 of these town homes still going up. They are asking a ridiculous amount of money. Who in the fuck is going to buy these things. I cant begin to comprehend what these developers are thinking right now.
It just seems surreal what is going on. Feels like "The Fall Of Rome" as noted on earlier comments...
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It's going to take six years just to clean out the defaults in Bend.
Then unknown years to clean inventory, most of the two bit hustlers that came in during the last five years will go back where they came to live with their parents.
On the subject of ROME, it took five hundred years to make their currency insolvent, and empty the granaries to the point that they couldn't buy what, which meant not bread, and thus the final end.
The end of the USA of course will be much quicker.
The city really had no choice but to establish some sort of fixed-route system.
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FUCK YOUR REVISIONISM,
The CITY ( THE FUCKING PEOPLE ) voted it down, NO where in the STATE law does it say that any city has to have a transportation system.
The people voted it down, a few council members went out and bought the buses in the dark of night and got fucked in the deal.
Now they're building a huge fucking bus barn.
WHO the fuck runs this city of Bend? NOT THE FUCKING PEOPLE.
I live near one of the bus routes, I HAVE NEVER SEEN A FUCKING PERSON IN THE BUS EVER.
First, Mt. B (Powdr Corp.) does NOT own Skyline Forest. - senior moment dartganan
*
Where in this entire thread did anyone say that Powdr owns Skyline Forest?
If you can't quote the obvious, then please try and make stuff up.
There are TWO completely different threads going on here today.
1.) about powdr wanting to expand mt-b
2.) about fidelity wanting to build on 5,000 acres between bend and sisters in skyline forest,
These are two completely different storys, IT YOU DARTGANAN who can't read and is getting the two separate storys that were in todays BULL mixed up.
Whenever you get involved please make a feeble attempt to read all the prior for the day so you can understand what the fuck folks are talking about.
I repeat NOBODY said that powdr owned skyline, that is something that you pulled out of your ass.
dartagnan said...
"GOLF COURSES AND CONDOS, right underneath MT-B."
*******
The above was about a story in TODAYS BULL about how Powdr has a NEW BITCH running MT-B, and that they want to focus MT-B on summer activity, as that is where ALL the fucking money is made in the summer.
Ok, now go read the bull article.
Powdr wants to expand MT-B to include MORE CONDOS, and a golf-course so they can keep people up on the MTN in the summer time. Do you get it?
This STORY doesn't have a fucking thing to do with SKYLINE/FIDELITY.
MT-B story, lets remember that Bend is a shoulder economy +80% of all that 1/2 billion of tourist money is made in JULY/AUG a trickle is made in xmas/jan,
Powdr ( MT-B ) wants to greatly expand their SUMMER revenue. Let's here some ideas boyz? A water slide? Jet skis on Sparks Lake? Mtn Bike rides to summit and ride down on the scree? A little disneyland theme park east of the lodge so that the tourists stay up at MT-B all summer long, and NEVER come down the mountain? This is the ONLY way ever they're going to sell condos, and RE up on the MTG, is to make it like SUNRIVER.
Like BEM said today, will not happen, as they can't even run a flashlight on the slopes, that said a depression can cause a lot of people to ignore the law to create jobs.
>>I cant begin to comprehend what these developers are thinking right now.
When you can't sleep you can't think. So I think they're not thinking anything at all.
BTW, what the hell is going in at the corner of Skyliner & Mt Washington near The Reserve @ Broken Top? Houses? Planning map at one time said that was an extension of Skyliner Summit. Can that be right?
BTW, what the hell is going in at the corner of Skyliner & Mt Washington near The Reserve @ Broken Top? Houses? Planning map at one time said that was an extension of Skyliner Summit. Can that be right?
13 lot subdivision..
http://www.ci.bend.or.us/depts/community_development/planning_division/docs/06_715_06_716.pdf
Ah good. Not enough homes for sale around there.
Go for the glory be a dick and a cunt - ITHBYB
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Wow, a whole new perspective, I thought about re-inventing myself as SHE-MALE... That's too Brazil, Then I could just do the drag but that's too PDX.
I have always considered Bend to be metro-sexual, e.g. hairless middle age white guys, with lipstick.
I think I need go for it all SheMale, SexChange, Boobs, big hair, so Bend.
I think that when the condo ho's go retail its going to kill my biz, thus I really need to diversify now.
I'm going to get the hormone therapy, I'm going to call my prick and enlarged clitoris, and I'm going to get a new orifice.
I'm going to do it all.
I love Bend.
I'm going to open a Republican airport bath-stall, and we're going to charge usage by the hour. I'm going to have a Senator stall, and a two-by-four stall. I think I'm going to pick up the old D&D and call it Iron Prick and Wet Cunt.
Will you support me?
Skyliner & Mt Washington near The Reserve @ Broken Top?
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The history on this is that when they originally developed it was outside of the city and low density and thus on septic, and then MOST recently somebody discovered that the CCR's had no restriction on lot size, so in comes HIGH desnsity developer, and then the city said wait a minute big boyz, you need to connect to the sewer if your going to be building homes on 5,000 sqft lots.
Thus the big deal @ washington & skyliner is that the developmennt of 'new homes' is such that they need to bring in a sewage connection, and this became a big deal.
Note all this is std procedure, low density high end, minimal cost, septic, ... and then a few years later on some section of land that nobody thought about there is a request to build,... in this case it turns out that NOBODY had read the CCR's as all thought they were buying into a low density, well it turns out that there was NO SUCH language in the CCR.
Summary, FOLKS if you buy into ANY FUCKING development in BEND read your fucking CCR otherwise 5+ years down the line someone could and will build a fucking condo in your front yard.
dartagnan said...
The BendBB party this week is at my house. There will not be enough personal lubricant to share. So please bring your own PL. (BYOPL)
dartagnan's trailer park, 8pm saturday, Sep 1, 2007
...Boobs, big hair...
Will you support me?
If the boobs are big enough, yes. And I'll need some beer.
Well that's sweet. A high-density neighborhood right in The Reserve's front yard. Oh, that gives me a belly laugh. Goodness.
This is why we shouldn't let angry 12 year olds have their own blogs to let out their pent up aggression.
The lower the house prices go, the sooner I'll be able to afford a house. Yay!!!
CC&R's have no bearing on land use decisions. They are a contract among the owners of a development. The city does not enforce them. Zoning and any approved master plan control density.
CC&R's have no bearing on land use decisions. They are a contract among the owners of a development - bozo
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If a CCR doesn't expliclty forbid something, then it can be done. The CITY of Bend is a selective law enforcement system, and its complaint driven. Also the development in question is outside of the jurisdiction of Bend the city, at the time the development was created it was outside ( and was on septic because of low density ), and the ccr's didn't exclude high density. Recently the 'developer' discovered there was no exclusion and requested densification from county, the country came back and said you must go on city sewer, and this is the the reason the street got torn up all this summer at mt-washington & skyliner.
The people that originally BOUGHT, thought what they were buying would remain so in perpetuity, surprise. If you buy in a Central-Oregon Development READ your fucking CCR.
Lastly, city and county will alway approve any fucking proposal brought before them, because they are desperate to increase the tax base by densification, thus its all win-win.
CC&R's have no bearing on land use decisions. - dartagang
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Nobody EVER tied CCR & 'land use' here, why do you always pull twisted shit out of your ass?
Somebody here asked about what was going on at skyliner & mt-washington, it's only about shit, its NOTHING about land-use, as the development itself had been approved years ago.
What has been going on is this simple, the developer took advantage to fact that the CCR had NO restriction on high-density. The remaining lots that had never been sold, were subdivided, but the county required that they be put on city sewer, so the area got torn up all summer, once the new infrastucture is done, then the high-density units on the south-west corner will be developed.
--TT
This is why we shouldn't let angry 12 year olds have their own blogs to let out their pent up aggression.
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A responsible parent can block adult sites such as these in their router and prevent junior from reading about the horrors of the RE collapse.
Skyliner & Mt Washington near The Reserve @ Broken Top?
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To me the interesting moral of the story here is JUST like the fucking Golf-Course, HOA, and ALL the other shit in BEND.
Never buy a bend home that has a HOA, never buy a bend home that has a CCR, never buy into a gated community.
Never buy a bend home that has a golf-course.
Otherwise down the line, ...
Your HOA will go astro, e.g. it may go from $50/mo to $1000/mo or more with no change in service.
Your CCR will be found to contain 'loop-holes', such that the empty lot next to you that was R10 is now R2.5,...
Your Golf-Course is now a parking lot for Bend Express public transportation system,
Your gated community is sub-contracted by rent-a-cops that are union organizing, and monopolizing, once one Redmond Pinkerton holds ALL, they'll pull any number they want out of their ass, that will go straight to the HOA. WHY THE FUCK PAY protection twice? YOU already pay taxes for PIGS.
People spend their life savings to come to Bend, to retire, and they CONSISTENTLY get FUCKED in the ASS.
HOW LONG WILL THEY TAKE IT? WHEN WILL SOMEONE BE ABLE TO STAND UP TO CITY-HALL AND SAY ENOUGH IS ENOUGH?
Your gated community is sub-contracted by rent-a-cops that are union organizing, and monopolizing, once one Redmond Pinkerton holds ALL, they'll pull any number they want out of their ass, that will go straight to the HOA.
WHY THE FUCK PAY protection twice? YOU already pay taxes for PIGS.
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Why do people outside of Central Oregon consider Bend to be the land of "marks"??
Why do people inside of Bend consider themselves to be the domain of the rich??
Why do people far from Bend, consider Bend to be the land of the tight-ass, pound foolish, nitwit?
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070829/expensive_homes.html?.v=2
I recall not too long ago, folks we're saying that the Subprime problems were contained. West side of Bend, up on the Butte...get ready.
>>A responsible parent can block adult sites such as these in their router and prevent junior from reading about the horrors of the RE collapse.
Mow all we have to do is locate some responsible parents in Bend. More kids know how to get to the router's page than the parents do.
"NO where in the STATE law does it say that any city has to have a transportation system."
Oregon State Land Use Planning Goal 12 (OAR 660-015-0000).
No matter how many times you use the word FUCK in your posts, you are still a fucking moron.
Oregon State Land Use Planning Goal 12 (OAR 660-015-0000).
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A 'goal' is NOT a mandate.
No matter how many fucking times you get words confused, your still a double dare-ya moron.
The people of Bend voted NO to the bus wussy, but ol boyz went ahead and bought used buses at night any way and lost their ass, to say they went against the good faith of the people because of a planning goal is ludicrous.
>>daragnan
http://www.oregon.gov/LCD/goals.shtml
Goal 12 Transportation (pdf) [Definitions]
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No where does it say you have to BUY fucking buses, it says there has to be many forms of trans, and no specific mandate to anything, there is NOTHING about numbers, e.g. that a BEND had to be buses in the dark of night even if it do voted down.
The fact is it says as a goal, all city's should have a transportation plan.
Note below, read this careful, given that dartaganan has a hard on for this, I feel that for the coming week, I'll bring this dead horse alive.
Oregon’s Statewide Planning Goals & Guidelines
GOAL 12: TRANSPORTATION
OAR 660-015-0000(12)
To provide and encourage a safe,
convenient and economic transportation
system.
A transportation plan shall (1)
consider all modes of transportation
including mass transit, air, water, pipeline,
rail, highway, bicycle and pedestrian; (2) be
based upon an inventory of local, regional
and state transportation needs; (3) consider
the differences in social consequences that
would result from utilizing differing
combinations of transportation modes; (4)
avoid principal reliance upon any one mode
of transportation; (5) minimize adverse
social, economic and environmental impacts
and costs; (6) conserve energy; (7) meet the
needs of the transportation disadvantaged
by improving transportation services; (8)
facilitate the flow of goods and services so
as to strengthen the local and regional
economy; and (9) conform with local and
regional comprehensive land use plans.
Each plan shall include a provision for
transportation as a key facilitcarries members of the public on a
regular and continuing basis.
Transportation Disadvantaged -- refers to
those individuals who have difficulty
in obtaining transportation because of
their age, income, physical or mental
disability.
Ok, Goal-12, and issue(5) is my preference.
(5) minimize adverse
social, economic and environmental impacts and costs;
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As you all might know the CITY the fucking fudge packing city, a bunch of cheap HO's has now made it a $650 fine to ride a bike without a license.
The reason is to shutdown Critcal-Mass and Homeless bike riders,
All means of transportation should have equal support, especially those that exist, no certain means should encouraged over others. That said the FUCKING Bend is for the car, of the car, and by the car.
dartagnan said...
"NO where in the STATE law does it say that any city has to have a transportation system."
Oregon State Land Use Planning Goal 12 (OAR 660-015-0000).
***
STATE LAW is the FUCKING 'ORS', the FUCKING OAR is NOT fucking law.
Quit posting if you don't know what the fuck your talking about.
From todays Bulletin re Redmonds Comm Dev fee increase:
The costs would likely be passed along to home buyers, said Andy High, director of governmental affairs for Central Oregon Builders Association.
Through July in Redmond, permits for single-family homes were down from 371 in 2006 to 183 in 2007, according to Don Patton, president of Cascade Central Business Consultants, who tracks the industry on a monthly basis. In July, the total dropped from 28 last year to 17 this year, he said.
“There’s a concern that it’s going to raise the prices, which would reduce housing starts even further,” High said. “Should they continue to raise fees or supplement their department with money from the general fund? Or reduce expenses? We’ve just started conversations with the city.”
These City planners should go into futures trading. What a keen sense of timing to increase fees after the biggest RE in World history has finally broken. Yeah.... you're really going to clean up now. Housing starts have fallen MORE than in half, so they're going to FIGHT BACK by tripling fees.
Nice. I'm sure that'll stoke demand. What's classic is the COBA slime goes in and advocates dipping into reserves, plain losing money, just about anything but actually charging builders what the process costs.
"Hell, the city can go broke for all we care!"
Mr. Unreality, "OAR" stands for "Oregon Administrative Rule." These rules have the force of law. Cities must comply with them. Goal 12 of the state land use planning goals says cities must have multi-modal transportation systems.
You're so filled with hate and resentment that all you can do is fume and sputter incoherently, and every third word that comes off your keyboard is "fuck." So to hell with you. Babble on if you want to; you'll get no further response from me.
OK Paul, getting boring here. Need a new post!
Ma dartagnan said...
It appears that that me & you are siamese twins sharing a common asshole.
I completely fucking agree with you, that 'bend should have a multi-modal system, and NOT just a fucking plan, by the way, where is that fucking plan??'
Bend is about the car, the OUTCOME of bend is everything FUCKING thing that GOAL-12 is NOT supposed to be, goal-12 says don't put ALL your eggs in one basket, but BEND hates the bike, walking, if BEND cared about pedestrians they would put stop-signs at the round-abouts, nobody ever fucking stops, they're looking left NOT straight-ahead at the cross walk.
The BEND pigs ticket bikes for not having a license for $600, and tickets dogs for $400, but you can speed in your car and never get a ticket in bend, and if you do, your talking around $100.
Yes I agree that Goal-12 and BEND don't have a fucking thing to do with each other.
p.s. an administrative rule ISN'T fucking LAW, it tells and an administrative agency, in this case LCDC how to do there fucking job.
Goal-12 is a wish list of the way folks prayed that Oregon would become back in 1972, I would say that like most things goal-12 is a hollow fucking document.
The costs would likely be passed along to home buyers, said Andy High, director of governmental affairs for Central Oregon Builders Association.
*
FUCKING about time, $12k was being passed during the last five years at a real cost of $60k, trouble is the DEVELOPER/BUILDER doesn't have the fucking cash to advance, ITS always passed to the fucking BUYER hello?
In Bend of course its fucking passed to the other guy, called the fucking tax payer.
These guys are so fucking full of shit, I wish we had somebody in the mainstream media that fucking had a clue or cared.
Ok, so for the past five years in bend alone the whole fucking process was subsidized by a tune of 250 MILLION fucking dollars ( 5,000 home $60k-$12k=$48k ), truth is MORE than 5,000 shacks were created, ... the 5,000 and $250M is just to give you an idea of how fucking big this subsidy to keep houses cheap, in order to maximize permits was, fucking huge numbers just to keep churning out houses, and make a fortune for Brooks Resources.
The whole fucking deal in bend was to keep growing and subsidizing, and passing the cost on to the last fucking buyer, but the whole game collapsed, and now the fucking CITY has to pay the fucking piper.
Now what we'll have to do is charge $100k SDC per home, ...
So the fuck what, somebody should have got off their lazy ass years ago and quit fighting the moratorium, now we have tons of bills and future permits are going to cost a fortune.
Timothy said...
OK Paul, getting boring here. Need a new post!
*
It's a slow time of year, besides how much can you kill a dead horse?
The current post albeit cute, really doesn't say anything, semper-fi becomes semper-fudge, doh like them BIG, ...
I hate to shit on anyones parade, but there are NO specifics, with the exception of the median data, which had been published the prior sunday.
Doh works hard on these posts, you know he must spend at least 4 hours every sunday doing this, I don't think more will enliven the debate.
Problem is this is peak vacation time, and most people have a life, other than the net.
How about you 'TT', why don't you propose a subject??
I think that the job is being done, we have relentlessly covered the SDC issue, the permits are down, and the money is no longer there, the contractors have no cash-flow, no worry about passing the cost, as there are NO buyers,
What your witnessing here is desperation to find someone anyone to cover everyones financial ass.
We're in that awkward "waiting" time. Everyone finally knows it's going to fall, but it's a dreadfully slow tumble.
imothy said...
We're in that awkward "waiting" time. Everyone finally knows it's going to fall, but it's a dreadfully slow tumble.
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Defaults for 2006 will not hit until 2011, and then it takes 1-2 years to evict them.
Be patient grasshopper.
That said, if there are subject?
Quite often I feel that DOH is afraid to piss off the status-quo, I mean this post, it really doesn't say anything, its funny, cute, but there really is no information.
One of the subjects I have tried to get DOH to discuss is 'bailouts', but he's afraid of pissing people off.
Certainly the story about less permits, and the city's wanting to keep they're income level up,... During the past five years they built TOO MANY NEW GOVERNMENT buildings, and hired TOO MANY people.
Time to lay people off, time to cut back and get used to the new level of building permits, as its ONLY going to get worse.
Or reduce expenses? We’ve just started conversations with the city.”
*
If it was a fucking business, and your sales are down +50%, and you know they're NOT coming back for 10+ years, you cut and cut fucking quick,
what about that rumor the other day on bendbb that 200 construction guys at a large firm are getting axed this week, was it confirmed? if so who is next?
We're in that awkward "waiting" time. Everyone finally knows it's going to fall, but it's a dreadfully slow tumble.
*
During the great-depression they called this period the RE-Paralysis.
Folks refused to drop prices, and buyers waited, years went by until things finally fell through, usually by that time the buyers had spent their money on something else.
Smart folks drop now, and get out, those that cannot drop are on zero-down, and thus have no where to go, but wait for default.
RE PARALYSIS.
What about Mt-B, we knew the other day they were going to raise prices.
I have talked with dozens of folks that have said NEVER A FUCKING TIME AGAIN will they get a season pass.
This past winter all stuff was shutdown almost all during the week, so people who got week-day passes got fucked, you have to go 20 times just to break even, and lets be honest not many do.
We know from the other day that Powdrz is going to make Mt-B focus more on summer, I don't see them investing anymore money in MT-B for ski,
Besides the fucking point, the problem last season wasn't equipment, it was that NOBODY was at the lifts they only had a few mid-week, and thus the mid-week lines were actually longer.
NEVER A FUCKING AGAIN,
Remember we only have one fucking ski area, and its fucked.
Brand new old-mill home, a year ago they were asking close to $500k, now almost 1/2 off! Those medians don't mean nothing, RE is already -40% DOWN, and STILL NOT SELLING.
Welcome to the new Bend, build it, and they will RUN.
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$279900 Brand new home close to Old Mill and community park
Reply to: fanderson@bendcable.com
Date: 2007-08-30, 6:02PM PDT
Brand new 1400 square foot, 3bed/2bath home with solid granite countertops in kitchen! Ride your bikes to the Old Mill District! Walk out your front door to a wonderful park just a block away!
its funny, cute, but there really is no information.
Much like Paul-doh himself....
+
+
How ya like this prick from California?
Is there such thing as a neighborhood blanket party?
It's a sad commentary on today's youth that they're out spray-painting swastikas in Sisters instead of TPing this guy's house.
That asshole in the bulletin article should go back to where he came from. People have been using that trail for 30 nyears and now this prick needs to excercise his "rights". I find it hilarious though that the DA essentially told this guy "kiss my ass, I will keep on using the trail just like I always have". Welcome to Bend dickweed.
Bet you the city finds some way to overturn the DA and finds a way to fine people who use the canal trails. I keep saying Bend city wants no averaqe working class people in Bend. It takes years to move people out, this will just be one more thing in the city's pocket. And yea the guy is an ass hole, like most big city dudes he wants to be in control, just keep him on your side of the mountain please.
It's a sad commentary on today's youth that they're out spray-painting swastikas in Sisters instead of TPing this guy's house.
*
I think there's going to be a lot more tagging EVERYWHERE.
This WHOLE NAZI, thing about NAZI-DAYS and running the jews was not a necessarily a joke.
Months ago we identified that the WAY this city is being ran is very smug and nazi like.
It's just a matter of time before the kids start giving the 'riche' a piece of their own.
Whether is a red-neck bashing up a gated community with his 4by4, or a punk with spray paint.
I find it very re-assuring that there are people out there that will use what tools they have to achieve parity with OUR beautiful system and its beautiful people, sic condo-ho's.
The fact is YES, the elite want red-neck out of Central_Oregon, but its JUST like the fires in GREECE, the locals say, ok you can buy our forest and our country, but it will be scorched.
Likewise the 'riche' will get their BEND sans red-neck, but what will be left will be a swastika HELL.
I mention greece because that's why the fires are happening we're going on EU displacement now for 20+ years, inflation has sky-rocket greek red-necks driven out of the village by german-tourist, fine they move on but burn it all down, after the good german has bought.
This is how people are, world over. The SMUG elite of BEND are happy to push out the red-neck, but in the END the last red-neck leaving, will leave the elite with that which they sowed.
It's a sad commentary on today's youth that they're out spray-painting swastikas in Sisters instead of TPing this guy's house.
*
Why is it SAD?
You displace junior from SoCal, and move to Sisters.
Junior is BORED out of his fucking mind.
Note, closely Sisters will be the LA-PINES of tomorrow, while LA-PINES becomes a christian mecca of bible thumpers.
Sisters will become a soddom&gomorah for RE HO's and their SPAWN.
What ye shall sow, so shall thy reap.
“Unfortunately, a new comer to our neighborhood, apparently unaware of the historical and daily use of the canal, is harassing us, threatening us, and blocking our use of the canal road.”
*
Yeh, what can you say? "Newcomer", cali, got a good deal, they do the same thing in cali, buy some beach front property and throw up a sign, where people have played for years.
I wonder is this guy who has been here four years, is in one of those new fucking homes on the fucking canal?
The problem of course is that the apts, condos, and subdivisions on the canal are dumping trash, and causing overflow/blockage at the culverts.
It's only a matter of TIME before EVERYONE is banned access to the canals, its that or pipe them.
I think this is just prelude to the issue. The canal was here first, long before MR-4yr, the canal has the right of way, the city fucked up by allowing all the homes on top of the canal, and implicitly MAKING NEWBIES THINK that the canal is their fucking park.
I'm not saying the cali 4yr isn't an asshole, but the guy probably is going out of his mind with all the yahoos on their quads driving through his back yard. Honestly he should have spent more time in the back yard before he bought the property.
Long term ...
1.) the canals will get piped
2.) the canals are NOT a public park, COID is very upset about the housing densification along the canals
3.) the city is out of its fucking mind, and will do nothing until an ordinance is created that generates $500 tickets, then you'll see lots of cops on the canal
You guys might like this, I was walking up in NWXC and talking with someone who lives there, and they told me that ALL building on the undeveloped land east of NWXC is now on permanent hold.
They can not sell what they have built, and there will be NO more building, that means for the next 5+ years all that empty land east of NWXC will stay empty.
I notice myself that the gravel-pit, which used to be busy east of NWXC, near the mormon church has been absent of heavy equipment all summer.
Good News, Brooks Resources has SENT all the weapons of mass destruction to madras and prineville.
I'm sure once people have bought the 60 properties for sale (not counting FSBO), building will start again.
Why don't they just drop the prices on those overpriced houses?
-------------
Region weathering credit jitters
Residential, commercial loans are tighter but still flowing
By By David Fisher / The Bulletin The Bulletin
Published: September 02. 2007 5:00AM PST
Wall Street’s credit markets continued to creak along last week, still laboring to put a price on weakness in the nation’s mortgage lenders.
Meanwhile, on Central Oregon’s Main streets, most types of lending have suffered little direct fallout from Wall Street’s jitters, said Bank of the Cascades Chief Financial Officer Greg Newton and Compass Commercial Real Estate Services Principal Broker Bruce Kemp.
Loans, backed mainly by local bank deposits, continue to flow into the region’s businesses, supporting commercial building projects, business operations and construction, Newton and Kemp said, although construction lending has been crimped by the slow housing market, and weakness is beginning to show in commercial leasing and in the pace of commercial and industrial property sales.
Retail mortgage shops, along with some mortgage borrowers, in Central Oregon as well as in the nation as a whole have taken the biggest and strongest blows so far from the nation’s credit jitters.
In Deschutes County alone, the number of licensed mortgage originators dropped from 319 at the end of March to 257 on Thursday morning, Oregon Division of Finance and Corporate Securities spokeswoman Lisa Morawski said — a 19.4 percent drop in five months.
The reason is clear.
The number of property deeds filed so far this year in Deschutes County — a reflection of activity in the mortgage lending market — is off nearly 24 percent from the pace of 2005 and 2006, according to Deschutes County Clerk’s Office records.
That’s partly due to an overall pullback in the pace of housing sales this year, Welcome to M Mortgage owner Bob Hollowell said. But it’s also a reflection of the fact that Wall Street investors, stung by foreclosures in the weakest “subprime” classes of mortgage loans, have shied away from buying all but the most solid mortgage packages over the past six weeks, leaving mortgage brokers with fewer tools to sell and, in some cases, putting clients in a bind.
Borrowers with ample down payments and high credit scores are having no problems finding loans and, in fact, are getting cheaper interest rates this summer, Hollowell said, particularly if they are borrowing less than the $417,000 maximum-sized loans that the federally chartered mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are allowed to buy in the secondary debt markets.
Anyone else, though, has been in for an adventure over the past several weeks.
“Anything that has any sort of risk to it is where we are having problems,” Hollowell said.
Interest rates on so-called “jumbo” loans — $417,000 or more — have shot up to 7.5 percent to 8 percent, Hollowell said, even for borrowers with good credit.
Lenders are raising standards on the borrowers they will accept, generally insisting on higher credit scores and more money down, Hollowell said, and most seem to be casting a more skeptical eye on underlying home values, as well. One of his lenders reduced the appraised value on a client’s home from $1.3 million to a lender estimate of $750,000, he said — an “extreme example” that failed to scuttle a deal, but still an indication of the market’s increasing sense of caution.
“Until investors kind of come back to the table,” Hollowell said, “buyers will just have to take it.”
Taking it may not be easy for some.
Certified Financial Services broker Trena O’Bill lost loans for three clients — two who were buying new homes and one refinancing an old loan — in the final stage of funding when American Home Mortgage suddenly went under earlier this month.
O’Bill said she got the three into other loans, at worst delaying their deals. But for other clients, bad news may be on the way. She’s going through her client list, calling people who will soon face potentially large payment hikes in their adjustable rate mortgages.
One couple, for example, could face a $500 payment increase in December on the mortgage they took out on 100 percent of their home’s value two years ago, O’Bill said.
They once thought they would easily be able to refinance their way into a cheaper, more stable loan before their current loan reached its adjustment date, helped by equity created by the home’s rise in price, O’Bill said. But, as many borrowers are finding out this summer, jumping to a new loan has become much more difficult and home values aren’t necessarily the bailout cure.
O’Bill is going back to the basics, trying to fit more clients, including that couple, into conservative FHA loans, possibly with help from family members. New clients are getting primers in basic budgeting before she’ll talk about a mortgage — a step sometimes skimmed through in the days of easy money and ever-rising home prices.
The basic goal now, O’Bill said, “is to just get creative ideas on how do we get through the cycle?” What I’m reminding clients is that real estate is cyclical, and we kind of forgot that.”
Jitters on ‘The Street’
So, apparently, did large investors.
Over the past decade, most loans originated on America’s Main streets by mortgage brokers have been packaged together and sold, in the form of interest-bearing bonds, to investors — a process called securitization.
Up until midsummer of this year, the biggest investors — hedge funds, pension funds, and others — seemed happy to gobble up bonds with potentially weak “subprime” loans bundled with slightly stronger “alt-A” loans, bundled with stronger top-quality loans, because those bonds could bring slightly higher-than-market interest rates, Signet Mortgage Senior Vice President Dave Woodland said. But reports of unexpectedly high defaults in the subprime sector, followed by reports of weakness in alt-A and better loans earlier this summer caused a sudden retreat of bond buying, leaving mortgage firms and their customers in the lurch.
More than 120 mortgage lending firms have failed over the course of the year, generally because the credit lines they depend upon to supply the upfront money to fund mortgages before they are sold have dried up, Woodland said.
Most lenders have increased their underwriting standards in an attempt to produce higher quality loans for the resale market, but the credit crunch on Wall Street has punished virtually all sectors of the mortgage market as investors have shied away from taking on new risk while they try to assess exactly how much risk of further defaults they currently own.
Ironically, the availability and price of so-called “conforming” loans — loans of $417,000 or less to borrowers with good credit and at least a 20 percent down payment — has actually improved. Interest rates on those loans have declined steadily, dropping from a national average of 6.73 percent on 30-year loans on July 12 to 6.52 percent last Thursday, according to the federally chartered lending giant Freddie Mac.
That, Hollowell said, is happening because big investors — hedge funds, pension administrators, life insurance companies — are fleeing toward high-quality debt to gain shelter from the turmoil, and loans that conform to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae guidelines are still considered solidly safe.
Commercial projects
On Wall Street, the trade in asset-backed commercial paper — a market tool that typically helps to keep investment money readily available to fuel all sorts of corporate transactions — continued to slog through its steepest slump in seven years last week, Bloomberg News Service reported. That’s leading some economists to speculate that the Federal Reserve will come under greater pressure to lower short-term interest rates to keep the mortgage market’s credit woes from spreading to other businesses, including commercial lending.
In some areas, though, money is still flowing.
Bend‘s Mercato project — a 200,000-square-foot retail, office and residential condo project on the northeast side of the Old Mill District — has a financing commitment from the Australian investment bank Macquairie to finance the bulk of the project’s $75 million in construction costs, once pre-leasing standards are met, developer Steve Trono said.
The lending standards are stiff for large projects, and they are stiffening throughout the country as credit conditions in the investment markets deteriorate, Trono said, but the standards are still reachable. Lenders are requiring pre-leasing agreements on 20 percent to 50 percent of the building’s space, depending on its type, along with up to 25 percent of owner equity, in the form of hard cash or “soft” contributions, like land, before they will release funds for construction, he said.
“It’s a tighter lending environment locally and also nationally,” Trono said. “But doing the pre-leasing tests our business plan. If it takes longer, then so be it. At least when I embark on it, the risk will be mitigated.”
Others in the commercial arena are finding different paths to financing.
Bend-based Baney Hotels is self-financing the construction of its $12 million Oxford Hotel in downtown Bend, President Curt Baney said, but not because of any tightness in the credit markets. Because of the risks involved for the banks, construction loans are always expensive and cumbersome to administer, Baney said, so the 17-hotel chain typically self-finances its projects through the construction phase, then borrows against the buildings once they are complete.
Jon Jurevic, chief financial officer for The ODS Cos., said his company also plans to close on the loan for its new five-story, $25 million building in Bend’s Old Mill District this month.
“All the flare-up in the financial markets and subprime and all that has had absolutely no effect on us,” Jurevic said.
Meanwhile, some financial institutions are beginning to step in to heal the mortgage problems, at least in small ways.
Bank of the Cascade is planning to roll out a new jumbo mortgage product, in part “because we know good, creditworthy folks out there are finding difficulty doing mortgages right now,” Newton, the bank’s CFO, said, but mortgages are likely to remain a small portion of its business as it concentrates on business customers and retail banking customers.
Although Bank of the Cascades, along with most local banks, funds its business loans with bank customers’ deposits — a factor that distances them from the Wall Street trading — credit costs are likely to tighten in general as money becomes harder to get, Newton said.
And the fallout from the cool housing market, along with the current credit problems, has already begun, to an extent, to make itself felt in the rest of the local economy, Compass Commercial’s Kemp said. The flow of tax-free exchange money into the local commercial market has slowed, partly because real estate activity is down everywhere.
Partly due to slumps in the local housing market, and the businesses that support it, new commercial office leases aren’t being snapped up as fast as they were earlier this year. There’s downward pressure on the price of raw land, and some potential builders of large commercial projects are nervous about the tightening availability of investor money that has helped keep credit costs down in the past.
“Long term, we are bullish on the Central Oregon market, but right now it’s time to take a breather,” Kemp said. “Time will wash it out.”
Region weathering credit jitters
Thanks for this... :-)
Love the article. Tone is reassuring. Facts are scary as hell.
Can you imagine how this article, with the same facts, could have ben written as a Greek tragedy, a horror movie, or a David Lynch film?
Lenders are requiring pre-leasing agreements on 20 percent to 50 percent of the building’s space, depending on its type, along with up to 25 percent of owner equity, in the form of hard cash or “soft” contributions, like land, before they will release funds for construction
*
99% of the players were using OPM to finance the deals, with NO hope of selling anything until project is done.
Now ALL projects MUST be 'pre-sold', you note they're saying 'pre-lease' in other words YOU have to find a sucker to sign a 5-10 year triple net lease on a building that doesn't exist, and pony 25% of your own collateral.
Note also that the requirement for pre-sell/pre-lease is 20-50% of units... No WAY IN HELL. Just drive and look at the finished buildings sitting empty.
"We have NO problem getting money under the bank terms, problem is its not possible"
I love the part about CACB offering JUMBO loans because they're no longer available.
CACB is going to use OPM to finance homes in Bend, so that BUYERS can buy over-priced homes.
Problem is no national firm wants over-priced jumbo loans on their portfolio.
This is a CACB SELL order, or its just reassuring fluff. Note, they say 'good buyers', but they say nothing about 20% down, which on a jumbo is $80K or more down cash, something that good-buyers don't have.
Given that the average mini-mi mcMansion in Bend was trading for +$500k in 2005, and that these flippers were all shooting for a cool million on flip.
There are NO buyers even at $421k ( jumbo thresh-hold ), because above that there are NO loans.
For months I have been saying the natural price of a Bend home is 40X of median income, which is still around $200K.
Somewhere between $200K and $400k is a no-mans land. Above $400k is just a waiting game until the seller drops. Problem is MOST buyers, bought these mc-mansions for nuttin down, so they can't REFI, or drop the price.
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