Monday, September 3, 2007

Bend's Best Bargains

Sometimes, I sort of blow my top on this blog (luckily, it's mainly in comments) after there is the occasional jab from a True Believer that I and others are "bitter" or something about having been left behind by Bends Bubble-nomics. And I guess on some level that's right. On a purely selfish level, I'm a little pissed that price levels totally precluded me from buying a house, because for me, an expenditure of that amount HAS TO make financial sense for me. It HAS TO.

Some people are saying (now that appreciation is no longer feasible) that your house is your HOME, and that's it, finances be damned. Of course, 2 years ago this was laughable, and "transactors" were touting the financial benefits ONLY of buying multiple homes. Houses WERE NOT "homes", they were Flipper Bait, pure and simple. I bridle at the hypocrisy that most people who are NOW saying you have to "forget" the financial aspects of a home purchase and revel in the warm touchy-feel-ly aspects are NO DOUBT the same people flipping properties as fast as possible just a few short months ago ridiculing those who "weren't in the game" for the money ONLY.

When I look for a house, it MUST make sense on some "quantitative" level. Like a stock. The numbers have to work. Price per sqft and all that. That gives me a subset of what I can look at from a qualitative level. Location, schools, and certain "sacrifices" that usually come with a bargain price. My first home in Cent OR was a screaming bargain because of a qualitative "defect": a horrendous floor plan layout. In all other aspects it exceeded my expectations, but the floor plan was a disaster. And when you walked in the place, that was practically all you could see, it was awful. But I saw beyond that, and could see that if you knocked out just a few walls, it would be a palace. And that's what I did, and I sold it for a nice profit.

And in "normal" times, this can happen with fairly decent regularity. Find a place with some hope of curing some sort of defect, buy it, fix it and sell it. There are some homes with no detectable problems and they just seem unreasonably cheap, but those are pretty darn rare. And there is the fairly common problem of a cheap home with an incurable defect: Geodesic homes, rusted out mobiles, homes with profound foundation problems, etc. Sometimes even these are curable, usually by insurance fire or target practice.

And one principle I always adhere to is only buying a home I am willing to live in FOREVER. That is very qualitative, but it tells me something about a place on a gut level that no other metric does. If I am willing to live in it forever, than reselling it at a reasonable chance of a profit in a reasonable time will almost certainly be possible. But if it's NOT.. I'll still be OK.

But during Bend's Monster Bubble, this process stopped dead. At the top and a large chunk of time surrounding the top (probably even now), there was virtually no property purchase that made RATIONAL sense. None. I looked for property for weeks & months, and not a SINGLE home was worth buying. This is still largely true, from my perspective. During the runup, prices that seemed ridiculously high at a point in time, seemed completely reasonable 6 months later. And this process repeated several times.

I have this opportunistic bent, and it's basically how I have survived my whole life. But in Bend, from 2004 to Present, the process stopped dead for me. There was NOTHING that made sense on a financial basis, no homes, no land, no businesses. And I guess I am a little TO'd by this fact. I am NOT pissed I Missed The Bubble, and the flippin' good times appreciated by others. It's more that I know in an economy so far out of whack that I will probably not be able to get "back to business" in any relevant time period, and on a collective basis that the local Bend economy is doomed because of the proverbial "Doubling Down" on REd is the ONLY economic model that has survived more than 6 months in this town for the current generation, and hence it's all we got. Like Pavlov's Dogs, virtually this whole town has been conditioned to Buy RE whenever The Bulletin rings a bell, which happens with amazing regularity.

So am I ticked off that Bend's RE markets don't have the decency to serve my own selfish needs? Yeah, sort of. Am I as big an ass as the jerks who have flipped from Houses As Financial Windfall to Houses As Homes HYPOCRITES? Maybe. But I have found my own financial "weathervane" to be damn reliable regarding the future. Well, at least in the sample size of "2" that I have experienced.

First, was the stock market bubble of 2000. I had dropped out of that market quite awhile before the top, after having been active for MANY years. It made ZERO economic sense to me. Curiously, I had pulled all my stock money, and was fixing up my house! And ALL my friends who typically had little or no experience/knowledge of stocks were borrowing to buy. And their SOLE nugget of the turning of the profit-making crank is CAPITAL APPRECIATION trumps all. Niggly details, like what the comany does to make money, or even what industry it was in, were irrelevancies left to prudes and dolts and little trolls. Just "buying", sight unseen was SEXY & COOL, and hell, how dumb could it be? EVERYONE IS DOING IT.

Well, everyone but me. I was one of the prudes. I actually thought price WAS important with respect to The Underlying Realities (And a confession: I DID buy ONE stock at the top, Berkshire Hathaway. In one of the delicious ironies of all-time, BRKA hit a multi-year low on exactly the day the NASDAQ hit it's all-time high...). So I am also like Pavlov's Dog, except it is (appropriately) contrary to an extreme: When I see EVERYONE doing "something", with a fundamental disconnect between what they are doing and the details underlying the transaction and the only rational reasoning for doing that "something" is APPRECIATION, something is terribly, terribly wrong and Bad Times are coming.

Man, I get this feeling IN SPADES now. Not really with regard to the national RE bubble. Truthfully, since coming to Bend in 2001, I haven't traveled extensively. Just little regional trips, and the market was pretty normal when I got here. But now the markets outside of Bend are just a pale shadow of the mindless frothy-mouthed frantic insanity that has gripped this town. I've never seen anything like it, with every "institutional" (City Gov't) and media outlet feeding the frenzy to the fullest extent of its ability. And the residents are just overwhlemingly IGNORANT of the situation. There is No Problem for the vast majority of Bendites regarding the RE bubble. They don't even know one exists, or it is Not Really A Bubble. "Bend's always been this way", is a familiar mantra. Huh?

Bend has NEVER been This Way. In 1986 the Bend median home price was around $50K and the national median was double that. Today the national median is $220K, and ours is $350K! Any longtime Bend resident will tell you that Bend has been a perennial bastion of lower-than-average home prices, almost certainly because of the lower-than-average business prospects & productivity of the area. Not to beat a dead horse, but we aren't the Next Aspen cuz we're too big (Conveyor Belt theory of growth will NEVER work), and businesses NEEDED to prop up housing prices are exiting at an alarming rate. We need high-growth, high tech, high productivity business here, and we need it yesterday. Without it, Bend RE is simply a house of soggy cards. An illusion, a phantom, doomed to implode.

What is Bend, to me? Well, as I said, large expenditures for me MUST pass some sort of quantitative test. THAT gives me a subset that I can work within and look for "situations" that make economic sense. So everywhere is full of a variety of situations, homes, businesses, all sorts of things, all distributed along a bell curve, some overpriced, some underpriced, the vast majority fairly priced, or close. At least, this is how it "usually" is in most places in times of "normalcy", and so it was when I got here in 2001. But the RE bubble took hold, and this aggregate Bell Curve of Opportunity started sliding to the right, UP the price scale. Things that were on the left tail went from attractive to middle of the road... then to overvalued... then to plain outrageous. Stuff on the right hand side that started too high to begin with, just went out of sight. The entire town is currently in "suspended rational animation": virtually NOTHING makes sense on a rational economic basis. Well, almost nothing. THIS is what Bend is to me.

Now we're entering The Crush: Where nitwits with almost eerily bad timing and thin financing are getting crushed out of the game. Desperation is setting in. Prices are falling, and there are some players who never had any business being in the Game, and they are being wiped out. The Bell Curve is moving left again, and it's also flattening and getting wider. There are some instances of homes being priced within eyeshot of normalcy. And although they are still above my own personal ROI requirements, there are probably lots of people for who losing some money on a house is secondary to the avoidance of the hassles of renting & other considerations. And so with those caveats firmly in place, here are some of Bends Best Bargains:

For the Thrifty Millionaire on a Budget, Realtor Dana Furlan of John L Scott has this 5,534sf whacky shack at Rivers Edge Village for $1,097,000.

To see this badboy, just start heading West on Mt Washington near the Mall (is it still a mall now?), and just take every road near the golf course. Or maybe someone can note in the comments where it is. It appears to be unoccupied, so that can sometimes give you some leverage. It was built in 2002 and it's on half an acre. Architecturally, it ain't my bag, and that driveway looks too wide. It's priced at $198/sf in an area tightly priced at $242/sf. Per BendBB, it's had 2 price reductions, and it showed up in his data in May at $1.295MM originally. If you have the means, this home might be worth a look as it seems to be about 20% below area listed "comps". Maybe go in and throw them a stroke-inducing lowball & see what sticks. But as always, Caveat Emptor & look for The Problem: the defect that could be a deal-buster that is currently giving the owner nighmares. If it's curable by you & you can clearly display it for the World to see, you can make it work for you.

Next is a house that has popped up on several screens as being a possible valuation gem.

This unpretentious 3,088sf house is up on Awbrey, built in 2003. From the COR page, all appears well. But this place has seen a mind-boggling SEVEN price changes (reductions?) since originally being listed at $829,900. Today they are asking $550K, and at $178/sf this place is well below the admittedly heterogeneous Awbrey area average of almost $300/sf. It's listed by Karen Milne at Brooks. My Cardinal Rule is protect yourself from the downside, and this place looks plain cheap. Worth a driveby, and anyone who's got details regarding exact location or other info is welcome to post it in the comments. From a plain quant perspective, this is one of the cheapest homes in Bend.

There's the Price Is No Object crowd, and there's the Price Is The Only Object crowd (rusted out mobile 20 miles East of LaPine on boulder strewn "road"), and then there's the Vast Middle. They want a good value, but there are certain things they won't compromise on. This house is in Ridgewater (near 15th & Ferguson) in SE Bend.

At 2,231sf it's a moderately sized, moderately priced little place, and it's fairly new, built in 2005. Originally listed at $380K, they want $320K today. This is the fungible goo of Flipper Bait thrown up by the hundreds & thousands, but this place "seems" like a a screaming bargain at $143/sf compared to almost $200/sf for the 13 surrounding properties. It's a tightly priced subdiv, and again the downside seems very limited on this place. This place looks like a Go at ask, but you might find The Problem, air it in high relief, and knock it down below $300K. For the vast middle of the Bell Curve of buyers, this one is a good deal. It's listed by Lisa Garcia at Sunriver Realty.

Now for The Price Is Damn Near The Only Object, this house is in Obsidian Meadows in Redmond.

OK, this is a straight up, mass tract housing unit stamped out by the trillions with no personality, landscaping, or any other function other than keeping rain off your head for a decade or so. At $229K, it's had no reductions, but it's $119/sf, which is quite a bit lower than the subdiv median of $133. Well, in relative terms, since the STD in Obsidian Meadows is just under $8. My own feeling is that this sort of place is worth about $100/sf, +/- $10. But that might be realized so far in the future (never?), that the interim costs of renting are swamped out by simply buying a place like this today. In fact it's a pretty bad idea to wait on low-priced homes to depreciate by renting in the meantime: If this place drops 10% ($23K) in 5 years, you'll easily pay far more than that renting in the meantime. Whereas a $2MM shack getting whacked for 10% is $200K, and that can be worth the wait.

And now for Paul-dohs personal favorites: Here are two places that I think are just interesting. The first is in Promise Lane, a subdiv off Eagle on the East side:

If you know Promise Lane, you know it's a Flipper Bait subdiv, full of lifeless shells stamped out by shameless hucksters. Then there's this place. A log cabin built in 1978, it's got 2 bed, 3 baths, and 2,540sf. No garage is The Problem, though, that is clear. It's vacant, and I've had a look thru the window, and it looks livable, maybe a little dark with seemingly low ceilings. But, I LOVE log homes, despite all their maintenance issues. And this place passes the Quant Test with flying colors, having been marked WAY DOWN from $399K down to $299K. It's listed by Sheri Abell of Palmer Home Sales, who I think stamped out Promise Lane. This is a fish out of water home, and is just sort of odd. Why Palmer didn't tear it down, who knows. But it's not a Gold Rush whacky shack, having been built back when Men Were Men, and Women Were Also Sort Of Men, so it's probably built like a tank. And it's big and it's cheap, and it's priced at an already cheap $118/sf! Hell, even if you don't want to live in it, it might even serve as a stable rental. I just think this place is cool.

Now for the Paul-doh's All Time Favorite, Price Is No Object, I Just Won The Lottery Mega Shack:

I mean Damn! This is probably one of my favorite homes of all time, and had I the means to easily afford it, it'd be mine NOW. It's over in Saddleback West, a nutty little subdiv out beyond Shevlin Park, just full of all sorts of places, from grubby, hard scrabble 70's crap, to this log monster. I've actually been in this home, and can tell you that you about drop a load in your shorts at the grandeur of the entry. It's enormous. And just drop dead beautiful. And the occupants have done everything right in decorating it. Take the first right in Saddleback, drive a ways, then take another right... it's on your right 2nd or 3rd house. Holy Crap.

It's 5,006sf, and priced at $1.195MM, down from $1.5MM. Frankly, I can't understand why it hasn't sold. After 2 price drops it's at $238/sf, which you can see by driving by is a bargain. This place is the reason I bought lottery tickets back when Powerball ran up to $315MM: I would buy this place in a heartbeat if I had the money. Maybe it's not selling because it's log, or something, but I can tell you it is Log Done Right, not like the previous house above, which is closer to Log Done To Our Budget... Which Was Thin. This place is a Diamond.

So there you have it: The Best Home in Bend is the massive log monster listed by Sandy Garner at Coldwell Banker Morris. The Best Bargain in Bend? That goes to the SE Bend Ridgewater home listed by Lisa Garcia at Sunriver Realty.

(If you have your own favorites that don't appear to be shamless marketing by an RE slime, I'll probably post them in future posts. Shameless marketing will at best be ignored, at worst will receive the full-bore brunt of ridicule that I and many others can throw at it. At some point, I'll probably do a post about the Best Deals in high volume subdivs, like NWX, Skyliners, RiverRim, and the like, cuz these places are where most of Bends buying is getting done.)

165 comments:

Anonymous said...

What you have shown us today is that most houses are down -30% on the ASK and still sitting.

Will they sell -50% down? I doubt it.

Everybody that could buy, and that was with bad credit, zero down, ... has BOUGHT, there is literally NOBODY left to play the game.

Now its gone from everyone must buy, to everyone MUST sell.

The street of Broken Dreams, is what you should call this blog.

All your cute log homes were somebody's longterm baby, you don't do Scandinavian full scribe on a spec, here are homes that folks intended to die in, and they're gone? Gone where? Where do these folks go to wait while they watch ALL their life savings evaporate?

ASK price is down -30% on your little tour, and still NOT selling MEDIANS DONT MEAN SHIT.

Perhaps IF&WHEN CACB starts writing jumbo loan some silly goose can buy your dream shacks, until then they'll sit.

Recall all 04,05 we were up 50%, then 70%, we have a long way to go, HOW IN THE HELL DO YOU APPRAISE THIS SHIT???

The street of broken dreams, Hell the City of Broken Dreams, Bend Oregon. Come to Bend, lose your home, your 401K, ...

I wonder how old Brooks Hogg Hollern is doing right now, for every sad-sack, theres always a happy harley.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Scandinavian full scribe on a spec, here are homes that folks intended to die in...

Yeah, that guy KNEW he was spending too much, but couldn't help himself (forget his name). But he did it to good effect. That last log beast is just incredible.

Like I said, precious few have the means, far fewer than just 2-3 months ago... but if you do, that place is incredible. Had I the money, I would buy it and just stay there till I was good & dead, and never want another thing.

And I should reiterate my caveat: I think virtually EVERYTHING in Bend is STILL TOO HIGH! This place is a bell curve still wildly offset to the right (overpriced) of a nominal average. But the curve is flattening, getting squashed by mortgage markets gone to hell and flat-out way too high pricing to ever be sustained by local fundamentals: That said, the left edge is coming with a country-mile of "normal". And like I said with that Redmond Flipper Bait: your situation might actually make losing 10% a better situation than renting for 5 years. There can be individual situations for whom buying is a must, or people for whom the time-window pretty much dictates buying as the overarching priority, despite the "fact" that they know they are going into a money-losing situation.

Sometimes it's all about loss-minimizing, because gain-maximizing isn't an option.

Anonymous said...

I agree its OK to lose 10% in the short term, perhaps even 20%, if they DONT CALL YOUR LOAN!

That said, I would NEVER buy a JUMBO home in this market, e.g. more than $400k.

First of all yesterdays $500k home is now going for $250k, which is an OK, price.

But yesterdays $750k is now $500k and still too much, besides these +3000 sqft are going to cost a fortune to maintain, all BIG homes lose value and become empty in a RE depression/paralysis like we have.
Small affordable people houses survive.

I can rent little sweet Newport/Drake/Parilla homes anytime for enough to pencil a $250k home purchase even now, but you cannot pencil a $500k home out at Shevlin,...

Problem is that those with questionable finances are completely out now, which makes it a excellent rental market ( finally ).

Your $500k++ homes sitting in Siberia will rot, and in time when they become sun rotted folks will say "What were they thinking". Bend will retract, and the inner Bend will always be where the people are, even now the nice restaurants are forming along Newport & Galveston east of 14th, these are the happening simple little yuppy hoods of tomorrow.

Note even the banks don't want the jumbo +420K shit, they know its going to have NO buyers, with RE gone so will most jobs in the next year.

Income will hold perhaps hold to around $40-50K household, which is about $200k, for those with $40k down, and good credit, they can buy all day long.

The worst case flippers I know were those playing the $500k market, they were buying with the idea of the home sitting empty and make 30%/year. There 1,000's of these folks that bought mcMansions at $500k in 2004/2005, and were going to sell at $750k, they cannot drop the price because the owe $500k, and thus they're all 2008->2011 foreclosures.

I agree on buying, if you have the money and desire. I might add I have homes since February 2007, both inner town for less that $250k, and were having ASKS of +$400K during 2005, but these houses also had been bought in the 90's for less than $120k.

There are lots of deals out there. That said there are very few people with good credit and 20% down.

Thus you have tons of sellers and NO buyers, OH yea they're all going to come up from CALI, no its not going to happen, nothing is selling down there, and calis on the average have even less cash saving than Oregonians.


Perhaps even the 100 homes a month that are selling now, are all being bought by people who have savings and good credit.

Most stuff is already down -50% right now, e.g. the ASK may be down -30%, but I can guarantee they'll take -50% if they bought in the 90's. That said, if they bought post 2000, they're fucked. Unless they can weather the COLD until 2012, but the BULL will take a generation, as 2012 will just be the trough, another BULL peak, will be 20 years down the line or a generation,.

Anonymous said...

Unfortunately the Ridgewater bargain house has a few strikes against it: 1) It's back porch overlooks the sewer pumping station, 2) Furguson is a fairly noisy street to be butted up against, 3) It ain't got no AC, & 4)The interior is decidedly lower-end.

If you aren't priced well and perfectly perfect, you ain't going to sell in this market.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

It ain't got no AC

That's true for a HUGE number of homes around here. No A/C is the rule, not the exception.

The sewer thing might be either a deal maker or breaker. If truly intolerable, it's a breaker.

Hell, half of Sisters is within nose-shot of the smelliest sewer on Earth! Just S. of Coyote Springs... my Lord, on a hot day!

Anonymous said...

Gee. Am I to gather from this that Paul Doh! was once a "Flip This House" kinda guy?

You know the show -- where the guy buys cheap, shit houses in Southern shithole markets, cleans the rat turds and mold out of them, and "flips" them for some small profit after one hell of a lot of work ...

That's traditional buy-the-worst-house-in-the-neighborhood and fix it "flipping" approach to real estate profits.


Note, however, that it involves a value-added proposition and considerable money put at risk beyond the purchase price (usually), unlike the kind of brain-dead, no-value-added day trading kind of house flippig that was going on during the free money boom.

Kind of gives me a bit more respect for the somewhat overly fudge-pack fascinated Mr. Doh!.

Thanks for the break from the asinine rants.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

If you aren't priced well and perfectly perfect, you ain't going to sell in this market.

Hell, I'd say that even if you ARE priced to perfection, you still might not sell in this market! BendBB just put out a shet with over 5,000+ listings. The Good, Bad, and Ugly all drown a little in that much volume. Many drown & die... some can be resuscitated.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Kind of gives me a bit more respect for the somewhat overly fudge-pack fascinated Mr. Doh!.

Don't worry, I still love fudge.

I do think "flipping" is dead though. Buy it, fix it, and sell it for a profit ain't dead... but it's damn close. It's the "selling" that's the ballbreaker.

The houses I put out there are for real Occupiers, people who ain't goin' anywhere. That's the diff between now & a "nomal" market. When it's "normal", you can sell at some point. Selling now is next to impossible. Months of Inventory has improved to 15+ months, which although a huge improvement over last months 20 figure, is still heinous.

If you're buying and have NO intention of selling in the next 10 years, there's a few buys in this town. I'm not saying you'll MAKE anything... it's really about loss minimizing at this point, and there are a few places where the money spent on rent is greater than the capital loss on a house.

That said, TT says over on BendBB:

Well, we're not arguing. It's better to buy low, whether that's sooner or later. Of course, opportunity cost complicates the issue. I'm just pointing out that "I got screwed and bought at the top, but it's OK because I'm going to stay in it for a long time" just needs to be simplified to "I got screwed and bought at the top."

Losing money sucks, period.

Anonymous said...

Keep it simple guys,

BUY LOW, and SELL HIGH.

You didn't want to buy in NWXC for 750k in 2005.

Today at $250k would be ok,

If you bought peak price at peak market, your fuck for at lease 12 years, like Brooks-Hollern recently said 20 years, before we see another peak.

Ergo buy now on the dip, if you can sell something you bought at peak two years ago sell ASAP, as you got a long fucking wait until you break even.

Anonymous said...

In hindsight we now know the market peaked in aug2006, by xmas it was over, and those that had to sell that had some equity, dropped the price and sold.

By summer of 2007, now we're out mega-inventory, and its over.

If you bought from 2002->2006 summer, chances are your fucked, if you paid less than 20% down, your double-fucked. If you didn't get out on a break even by xmas of 2006 , then you had better to BUY your way out, and PAY someone to buy the house.

It doesn't hurt that much to be down 10%, or 20% on a $200k home, but to be down 20$ on $1M mini-me mcMansion. Ouch! During a RE depression, its always the BIG stuff that sits and rots, as NOBODY can afford to maintain the shit.

In my humble opinion anything over 3k-sqft is TOO FUCKING BIG. It's NO fucking different than BIG cars, BIG boobs, and BIG dicks, ... It's over guys.

Anonymous said...

I'll just say something about 'buying', said it before, but you guys all come from different backgrounds.

Hypothetical, you buy a little sweet home near Drake park for $200k, with $40k down, you can carry a 30yr for around $1k/mo, or better yet get a 15yr. In fifteen your renter has paid for the place, and now you have retirement income, or by then maybe its work $350k on the next cycle. It's NOT going to go that low, because your in the zone of reality for MORTALS in Bend.

Yes, flipping is over, it was always over, like stock market new-issues, those games always occur early in a bull market and are stuff of legion, but most folks lose their ass.

Anonymous said...

Hell, I'd say that even if you ARE priced to perfection, you still might not sell in this market!
*
Price don't mean shit in this market, and either does median.
What matters is finding that ONE fucking BUYER out of 1,000 that has a down-payment in CASH. That has GOOD CREDIT.

These BUYERS are hard to come by, also if the house is over $420K your talking JUMBO, and NOBODY wants jumbo in their fucking portfolio, except CACB, but I seriously think that CEO was TALKING shit and just signed his own resignation, what a stupid fucking idea. There are NO fucking investors that will touch a jumbo, unless you PMI it and pay 10%/yr, and have some fucking collateral.

Price doesn't mean shit, thats realtor talk. Medians don't mean shit.

All that matters is finding a fucking BUYER that has money and credit, and HOPE he wants your fucking house in a market of +5,000 homes for sale. Oh yea, and he has to sell his house, this is called the law of diminishing probability what we have is an asymptotic curve that is approaching ZERO, our BUYER doesn't exist. Oh yea perhaps DUBYA will bring back zero-down, sub-prime, ... NOT LIKELY,

Everybody that could buy, did buy,

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

BIG cars, BIG boobs, and BIG dicks

There are subtle differences here...

Anonymous said...

Kind of gives me a bit more respect for the somewhat overly fudge-pack fascinated Mr. Doh!.

Thanks for the break from the asinine rants.
*
It was refreshing to see some talk about Real Estate for a change, it seems that Doh's real profession should be a comic strip about a little town of insane idiots. Bend Oregon where every REALTOR is a queen, and every CONTRACTOR is a king.
Trouble is thats the only kind of folks in the town.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

It was refreshing to see some talk about Real Estate for a change, it seems that Doh's real profession should be a comic strip about a little town of insane idiots. Bend Oregon where every REALTOR is a queen, and every CONTRACTOR is a king.

Thanks for the compliment. I think.

Timothy said...

Yeah, Paul, you suck less than we thought.

The actions of sellers are starting to become humorous and sad at the same time. Read Craigslist for a while and you can begin to smell the fear.

Anonymous said...

Is Duncan more a pessimist than Doh? I think this downturn will be much like the 1983->1987, albeit longer. The difference today is that by 1985 folks in PDX stepped in to buy Sunriver Bargains. Today the new second-wave Golf Resorts have really nothing for anybody, and the beaverton style tracts are NOT a reason for buying in Bend. Thus old Bend will be like old Bend, but New Bend will become a ghost-town. Poverty with a partial view, a new line of Mill-Shacks, but we'll call them home-depot shacks, walmart shacks.

Don't laugh at this speculation some ten years after Mission Viejo was built for the 'rich' they left and it became a barrio.
Doh seems to focus on the high-end, I think that is his comfort zone, .e.g. +5,000sq-ft siberians mansions.

Given that there is NO market for JUMBO LOANS ( > $420k ) that market will dry up, with few to no buyers, thus ALL mini-me mcMansions will have to fall to less than $420k to find a buyer.

I do agree with Doh on one hand, there are BUY's out there right now at -50% on 2005 high, that said will it go lower? Yes, but there is a sill plate in this town of $120k. Rents will pretty much stay around $1k or less, like they always have as LONG as I can remember you got $750k for house, no matter how big, and $500 for an apartment. Its what renters could pay.

I think the little inner-Bend homes in nice old neighborhoods will do fine, yes they'll go down, hell they already have, ASK was $450k a year ago, and now can be had for $250k.

What I feel is going to be complete waste is the stuff +3 miles out of town that folks paid $750k for, I think that stuff will drop to $300k or below, and there still will be NO buyers, and kids will not live there as its no fun, it will all be the section 8 housing of tomorrow. The siberian mansions of Shevlin, SE27th,... will NEVER again see their highs.

Inner Bend around Drake Park has always been nice as long as I can remember the little Mill Shacks that used to go for $50k, that went to $500k will drop to $160k. That said the SWEET ones with off-street parking, big yard with old trees, a place for the RV these are always hard to find. Thus the premium of $200k or a little higher, and guess what that can be had today.

Tomorrow with the Real Estate implosion and the fact that what seems like +50% of all econ activity is Real Estate we should see a real drop in business. That said, its now been 9-12 months where the realtors have seen no commissions, and the MTG pro's few closings, we're already here, folks are living off their meager savings.
They were all told to wait until summer, the recovery didn't come.

A house should just be a home, unless your a landlord one is all you need to buy, and ignore the price, because its pretty much irrelevant whats important is afford-ability. What happened in the Bend Bubble is that many bought 2,3, or more homes and let them sit, and waited to flip. Folks that played this game will lose all.

Anonymous said...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

BIG cars, BIG boobs, and BIG dicks

There are subtle differences here...

*

Its all LOOK AT ME!

Like a few years ago on the book "The Millionaire Next Door",

The real rich guy drives a F100, has had the same wife for twenty years, ...

The BEND rich, with his big fake dick, and his new wifes fake boobs, and his BIG SUV, and his BIG HOUSE.

So BEND will be the term, ...

Anonymous said...

2002 ...Wow I can sell my shit hole little 1200 sq-ft house in Cali, and move to Bend and BUY a 4,000+sqft mcMansion, and still have cash left over to buy 2 or 3 flippers!
I think I'll move to Bend, and 'retire'.

2007 ... Wow my 401k is exhausted, I can no longer afford to pay to heat my 4000+sq-ft Bend mcMansion, my home will not sell even if I list it -50% of purchase price. My spec/flipper units are all sitting empty, and will soon be foreclosed.

It wasn't supposed to happen this way, Bend is exceptional. They Built and I came, they said Bend real estate would never go down, only up. They said I could make 30%/yr forever on Bend Real Estate.

If feel robbed and cheated, humiliated.

Anonymous said...

When I look at your home for sale please put away all your personal crap. I don't want to see pictures of your family and friends. Clutter is your enemy. I want to envision my shit in your home. Not yours. There is so much competition out there, so your home better show exceptionally well (inside and out). That means I don't have to look at your toiletries. Not only does your asking price have to be rock bottom, but your home must be clean and maintained. When it comes time to put in an offer I am going to have multiple inspectors write reports and my offer will be contigent on you paying to fix EVERY problem found. You see the world is not beating a path to buy your home. Those days are long gone. Good times.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

This is a comment from the previous post, and it's the only real Hard News piece from The Bulletin in awhile (it's been cookies & flutes for weeks):

Anonymous said...

-------------

Region weathering credit jitters
Residential, commercial loans are tighter but still flowing
By By David Fisher / The Bulletin The Bulletin
Published: September 02. 2007 5:00AM PST

Wall Street’s credit markets continued to creak along last week, still laboring to put a price on weakness in the nation’s mortgage lenders.

Meanwhile, on Central Oregon’s Main streets, most types of lending have suffered little direct fallout from Wall Street’s jitters, said Bank of the Cascades Chief Financial Officer Greg Newton and Compass Commercial Real Estate Services Principal Broker Bruce Kemp.

Loans, backed mainly by local bank deposits, continue to flow into the region’s businesses, supporting commercial building projects, business operations and construction, Newton and Kemp said, although construction lending has been crimped by the slow housing market, and weakness is beginning to show in commercial leasing and in the pace of commercial and industrial property sales.

Retail mortgage shops, along with some mortgage borrowers, in Central Oregon as well as in the nation as a whole have taken the biggest and strongest blows so far from the nation’s credit jitters.

In Deschutes County alone, the number of licensed mortgage originators dropped from 319 at the end of March to 257 on Thursday morning, Oregon Division of Finance and Corporate Securities spokeswoman Lisa Morawski said — a 19.4 percent drop in five months.

The reason is clear.

The number of property deeds filed so far this year in Deschutes County — a reflection of activity in the mortgage lending market — is off nearly 24 percent from the pace of 2005 and 2006, according to Deschutes County Clerk’s Office records.

That’s partly due to an overall pullback in the pace of housing sales this year, Welcome to M Mortgage owner Bob Hollowell said. But it’s also a reflection of the fact that Wall Street investors, stung by foreclosures in the weakest “subprime” classes of mortgage loans, have shied away from buying all but the most solid mortgage packages over the past six weeks, leaving mortgage brokers with fewer tools to sell and, in some cases, putting clients in a bind.

Borrowers with ample down payments and high credit scores are having no problems finding loans and, in fact, are getting cheaper interest rates this summer, Hollowell said, particularly if they are borrowing less than the $417,000 maximum-sized loans that the federally chartered mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are allowed to buy in the secondary debt markets.

Anyone else, though, has been in for an adventure over the past several weeks.

“Anything that has any sort of risk to it is where we are having problems,” Hollowell said.

Interest rates on so-called “jumbo” loans — $417,000 or more — have shot up to 7.5 percent to 8 percent, Hollowell said, even for borrowers with good credit.

Lenders are raising standards on the borrowers they will accept, generally insisting on higher credit scores and more money down, Hollowell said, and most seem to be casting a more skeptical eye on underlying home values, as well. One of his lenders reduced the appraised value on a client’s home from $1.3 million to a lender estimate of $750,000, he said — an “extreme example” that failed to scuttle a deal, but still an indication of the market’s increasing sense of caution.

“Until investors kind of come back to the table,” Hollowell said, “buyers will just have to take it.”

Taking it may not be easy for some.

Certified Financial Services broker Trena O’Bill lost loans for three clients — two who were buying new homes and one refinancing an old loan — in the final stage of funding when American Home Mortgage suddenly went under earlier this month.

O’Bill said she got the three into other loans, at worst delaying their deals. But for other clients, bad news may be on the way. She’s going through her client list, calling people who will soon face potentially large payment hikes in their adjustable rate mortgages.

One couple, for example, could face a $500 payment increase in December on the mortgage they took out on 100 percent of their home’s value two years ago, O’Bill said.

They once thought they would easily be able to refinance their way into a cheaper, more stable loan before their current loan reached its adjustment date, helped by equity created by the home’s rise in price, O’Bill said. But, as many borrowers are finding out this summer, jumping to a new loan has become much more difficult and home values aren’t necessarily the bailout cure.

O’Bill is going back to the basics, trying to fit more clients, including that couple, into conservative FHA loans, possibly with help from family members. New clients are getting primers in basic budgeting before she’ll talk about a mortgage — a step sometimes skimmed through in the days of easy money and ever-rising home prices.

The basic goal now, O’Bill said, “is to just get creative ideas on how do we get through the cycle?” What I’m reminding clients is that real estate is cyclical, and we kind of forgot that.”

Jitters on ‘The Street’

So, apparently, did large investors.

Over the past decade, most loans originated on America’s Main streets by mortgage brokers have been packaged together and sold, in the form of interest-bearing bonds, to investors — a process called securitization.

Up until midsummer of this year, the biggest investors — hedge funds, pension funds, and others — seemed happy to gobble up bonds with potentially weak “subprime” loans bundled with slightly stronger “alt-A” loans, bundled with stronger top-quality loans, because those bonds could bring slightly higher-than-market interest rates, Signet Mortgage Senior Vice President Dave Woodland said. But reports of unexpectedly high defaults in the subprime sector, followed by reports of weakness in alt-A and better loans earlier this summer caused a sudden retreat of bond buying, leaving mortgage firms and their customers in the lurch.

More than 120 mortgage lending firms have failed over the course of the year, generally because the credit lines they depend upon to supply the upfront money to fund mortgages before they are sold have dried up, Woodland said.

Most lenders have increased their underwriting standards in an attempt to produce higher quality loans for the resale market, but the credit crunch on Wall Street has punished virtually all sectors of the mortgage market as investors have shied away from taking on new risk while they try to assess exactly how much risk of further defaults they currently own.

Ironically, the availability and price of so-called “conforming” loans — loans of $417,000 or less to borrowers with good credit and at least a 20 percent down payment — has actually improved. Interest rates on those loans have declined steadily, dropping from a national average of 6.73 percent on 30-year loans on July 12 to 6.52 percent last Thursday, according to the federally chartered lending giant Freddie Mac.

That, Hollowell said, is happening because big investors — hedge funds, pension administrators, life insurance companies — are fleeing toward high-quality debt to gain shelter from the turmoil, and loans that conform to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae guidelines are still considered solidly safe.

Commercial projects

On Wall Street, the trade in asset-backed commercial paper — a market tool that typically helps to keep investment money readily available to fuel all sorts of corporate transactions — continued to slog through its steepest slump in seven years last week, Bloomberg News Service reported. That’s leading some economists to speculate that the Federal Reserve will come under greater pressure to lower short-term interest rates to keep the mortgage market’s credit woes from spreading to other businesses, including commercial lending.

In some areas, though, money is still flowing.

Bend‘s Mercato project — a 200,000-square-foot retail, office and residential condo project on the northeast side of the Old Mill District — has a financing commitment from the Australian investment bank Macquairie to finance the bulk of the project’s $75 million in construction costs, once pre-leasing standards are met, developer Steve Trono said.

The lending standards are stiff for large projects, and they are stiffening throughout the country as credit conditions in the investment markets deteriorate, Trono said, but the standards are still reachable. Lenders are requiring pre-leasing agreements on 20 percent to 50 percent of the building’s space, depending on its type, along with up to 25 percent of owner equity, in the form of hard cash or “soft” contributions, like land, before they will release funds for construction, he said.

“It’s a tighter lending environment locally and also nationally,” Trono said. “But doing the pre-leasing tests our business plan. If it takes longer, then so be it. At least when I embark on it, the risk will be mitigated.”

Others in the commercial arena are finding different paths to financing.

Bend-based Baney Hotels is self-financing the construction of its $12 million Oxford Hotel in downtown Bend, President Curt Baney said, but not because of any tightness in the credit markets. Because of the risks involved for the banks, construction loans are always expensive and cumbersome to administer, Baney said, so the 17-hotel chain typically self-finances its projects through the construction phase, then borrows against the buildings once they are complete.

Jon Jurevic, chief financial officer for The ODS Cos., said his company also plans to close on the loan for its new five-story, $25 million building in Bend’s Old Mill District this month.

“All the flare-up in the financial markets and subprime and all that has had absolutely no effect on us,” Jurevic said.

Meanwhile, some financial institutions are beginning to step in to heal the mortgage problems, at least in small ways.

Bank of the Cascade is planning to roll out a new jumbo mortgage product, in part “because we know good, creditworthy folks out there are finding difficulty doing mortgages right now,” Newton, the bank’s CFO, said, but mortgages are likely to remain a small portion of its business as it concentrates on business customers and retail banking customers.

Although Bank of the Cascades, along with most local banks, funds its business loans with bank customers’ deposits — a factor that distances them from the Wall Street trading — credit costs are likely to tighten in general as money becomes harder to get, Newton said.

And the fallout from the cool housing market, along with the current credit problems, has already begun, to an extent, to make itself felt in the rest of the local economy, Compass Commercial’s Kemp said. The flow of tax-free exchange money into the local commercial market has slowed, partly because real estate activity is down everywhere.

Partly due to slumps in the local housing market, and the businesses that support it, new commercial office leases aren’t being snapped up as fast as they were earlier this year. There’s downward pressure on the price of raw land, and some potential builders of large commercial projects are nervous about the tightening availability of investor money that has helped keep credit costs down in the past.

“Long term, we are bullish on the Central Oregon market, but right now it’s time to take a breather,” Kemp said. “Time will wash it out.”


Remember: The Bulletin trolls far & wide for good news on RE. Just look at the title here; "Region weathering credit jitters". But the meat of this piece is about The End of The Large Scale Leveraged RE Project. And The LSLRP is The Only Business Plan this town has. Take that out, and the ripple effect blows away vast swaths of income here, high & low end. Man, take that out, and we're right back to 2001-era 60K population.

As Duncan said: The Mercato project is baked, Over. Breeze & Co will abandon ship on The Plaza, no one can or will borrow to buy those horrible white elephant condos. The Jumbo ($417K+) market is Baked nationwide, and Bend is Jumbotown. We are nothing but Jumbos. Watch for mdians to crack SOON. The Super Jumbo RE Commercial Project is over for a generation here. Get used to exposed rebar.

I agree with Kemp's final line: Hell, I'm long-term bullish on Cent OR RE. I think in 30 years we'll realize 2% appreciation. Time WILL wash it out. It'll wash out 40-50% of current prices first though, before an ascent to normalcy is even possible, though.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And this piece is absolutely CHOCKED FULL of lies, half-truths and self-serving Bull Shit that The Bulletin in conjunction with the local RE "experts" are so adept at spewing forth, that it's fairly difficult to get it all. But I'll try (probably in stages):

Central Oregon’s Main streets, most types of lending have suffered little direct fallout from Wall Street’s jitters

OK, this statement is the jumping off point for a litany of horseshit.

One of his lenders reduced the appraised value on a client’s home from $1.3 million to a lender estimate of $750,000, he said — an “extreme example” that failed to scuttle a deal, but still an indication of the market’s increasing sense of caution.

Right, right, right, right, right. A 42% REDUCTION is absolutely FINE. I'm sure the seller is THRILLED.

NOTHING TO SEE HERE FOLKS!


Certified Financial Services broker Trena O’Bill lost loans for three clients

OK, now put that together with this:

In Deschutes County alone, the number of licensed mortgage originators dropped from 319 at the end of March to 257 on Thursday morning, Oregon Division of Finance and Corporate Securities spokeswoman Lisa Morawski said — a 19.4 percent drop in five months.

OK, now add to that the fact that July had about 100 homes close & August had 156 close. This ONE mortgage broker LOST 3 loans in one month (July, it sounds like). There are 257 mortgage brokers in this County, and this ONE broker, who represents less than 0.5% of the mortgage broker population, LOST about 3% of ALL closes in July. Multiply this by 257.

Bank of the Cascade is planning to roll out a new jumbo mortgage product, in part “because we know good, creditworthy folks out there are finding difficulty doing mortgages right now,” Newton, the bank’s CFO, said, but mortgages are likely to remain a small portion of its business as it concentrates on business customers and retail banking customers.

Uh, right. BOTC is going into Jumbos out of the Goodness Of Its Heart. My God, that makes me wanna puke. OK, that giant screwing feeling you're getting in your rectum is BOTC screwing you over a barrel BECAUSE THEY CAN. They can get 8%, and make you pledge your 1st born as collateral + The House + Whatever Else You Got. This is just putrid self-serving tripe.


Ironically, the availability and price of so-called “conforming” loans — loans of $417,000 or less to borrowers with good credit and at least a 20 percent down payment — has actually improved. Interest rates on those loans have declined steadily, dropping from a national average of 6.73 percent on 30-year loans on July 12 to 6.52 percent last Thursday


Huh? Why? Well, it's Supply & Demand. There is ZERO demand for these loans cuz there's about 4 people in the known Universe who can come even remotely close to qualifying.

Bend‘s Mercato project — a 200,000-square-foot retail, office and residential condo project on the northeast side of the Old Mill District — has a financing commitment from the Australian investment bank Macquairie to finance the bulk of the project’s $75 million in construction costs, once pre-leasing standards are met, developer Steve Trono said.

The lending standards are stiff for large projects, and they are stiffening throughout the country as credit conditions in the investment markets deteriorate, Trono said, but the standards are still reachable. Lenders are requiring pre-leasing agreements on 20 percent to 50 percent of the building’s space, depending on its type, along with up to 25 percent of owner equity, in the form of hard cash or “soft” contributions, like land, before they will release funds for construction, he said.

“It’s a tighter lending environment locally and also nationally,” Trono said. “But doing the pre-leasing tests our business plan. If it takes longer, then so be it. At least when I embark on it, the risk will be mitigated.”


Paul-doh's BULLSHIT-to-English translator is necessary here:

Mercato project... has a financing commitment from the Australian investment bank Macquairie to finance the bulk of the project’s $75 million in construction costs, once pre-leasing standards are met

Trono had to go halfway around the World to find the dumbest-ass Sucker in the WORLD to even get a monetary commitment. Will he get it? FUCK NO! This is payback for Crocodile Dundee 2 bombing at the box office. Macquarie is the scorpion that will kill the Trono frog halfway across the river. There will be UNKNOWN PROBLEMS that wank this deal up the corn chute just as sure as shit. Mercato is OVER.

lending standards are stiff for large projects, and they are stiffening throughout the country as credit conditions in the investment markets deteriorate, Trono said, but the standards are still reachable. Lenders are requiring pre-leasing agreements on 20 percent to 50 percent of the building’s space, depending on its type, along with up to 25 percent of owner equity, in the form of hard cash or “soft” contributions, like land, before they will release funds for construction, he said.

First of all, Trono's overuse of the word STIFFENING makes me uncomfortable. Second, the collateral on this deal is UNBELIEVABLE. I'd be surprised if one (or both) of Trono's nuts wasn't surgically removed as collateral on this loan. There's probably an anvil hanging by a rope which is slowly being cut but a pendulum blade at Macquairie's headquarters.

Hmmmm... Anvil. Stiffening. Crushed Nuts. Maybe Paul-doh and his latent homophobia are ready for the Senate!


“But doing the pre-leasing tests our business plan. If it takes longer, then so be it. At least when I embark on it, the risk will be mitigated.”

My God, what a load of shit. This is what you call a DEAL KILLER. Macquairie has ZERO INTENTION of funding Mercato. There are just screwing with Trono. They KNOW he'll never EVER hit these requirements. NEVER. And even if he dows, they will renege 100%. Mercato is DEAD.

There's more. This is a whitewash piece designed to soothe our jangled nerves with a shot of concentrated Kool-Aid injected straight to the scrote.

WE'RE DOOMED

Anonymous said...

The shit is really starting to hit the fan now. Once the psychology changes, and I think it has, everybody will be running from real estate for a good while. I wonder what the unemployment stats are for construction these days. So many subs don't show up on the unemployment stats because they are self employed, including me. There is going to be a huge chunk of consumer spending gone bye bye real quick. I'm having to tighten my belt big time, and I have no debt or any toys I'm paying on.

--Angry Inch

Duncan McGeary said...

These guys have to pretty much know it's over, for the time being. I think Brenneke is just being the big bad wolf, a huffing and a puffing, but inside hoping and a praying that the Broken Top residents will bail him out by buying the place.

A=I'd be surprised if any project that hasn't actually broken ground, goes forward. Or, at the very least, already had the financing locked up.

Anonymous said...

I wouldn't count Brenneke out that soon. If he can redevelop the 200+ acres of the RS zoned Broken Top community he will have made the deal of a century. 200+ acres for about $6M in the heart of Bend. He could not have been so foolish to buy the club in the middle of a PUD with a master plan and not know he could redevelop.

Duncan McGeary said...

"I wouldn't count Brenneke out that soon."

That's the whole -- he must know something we don't, he's a smart guy and a smart guy wouldn't make that mistake -- argument, that I generally find isn't true. I have zero expectation that he can override the PUD and the local residents and the Oregon landuse laws, and the lawsuits by people like Bauhofer.

He just looks like the classic stalking horse to me.

Duncan McGeary said...

I also think that he can pretend that he always meant for the locals to buy the club, and that he played it smart. He wins either way, if he plays his cards right. Look, I helped bail the 'family trust' people out of a bad investment.

Duncan McGeary said...

I just don't think nows the time to soften our critigue. We are going to hear a huge amount of BS coming out of the housing market. A last ditch effort to sucker a few more buyers into the local scene. And a cynical one, at best, or worst a kool-aid drinking fools line of BS.

If we believe that prices are going to continue to decline, that credit is going to continue to be hard to get, and so on, I think that we shouldn't just back off and say, gosh we were right, see.

Because I'm guessing there is going to be alot of obscuring and pandering and eventually anger, but it won't change anything except hurt the unwary.

Anonymous said...

" I helped bail the 'family trust' people out of a bad investment."

Problem is the family trust is his brothers kids.

...but for the small price of about $1M he got hold of some $3M in the CEM funds. So if he can hold on to those and sell the club to the members for $9M he makes out like a bandit.

Anonymous said...

I'm guessing there is going to be alot of obscuring and pandering and eventually anger, but it won't change anything except hurt the unwary.
*
They're fucked. No crocodile tears.
The unwary, bought, anybody that was breathing and had genitals between their legs bought,
The problem is now you have to sell your prior, before you can buy another, and you cannot sell your prior.
It's game-over.

Anonymous said...

"I wouldn't count Brenneke out that soon."

That's the whole -- he must know something we don't, he's a smart guy
*
He bought PEAK MARKET with OPM "other peoples money"

He's a fucking custodian, and his resume is now fucked, this is last deal.

It's Bauhofer who is the smart bitch, he dumped the goose, and used that money to start Tetherow a whole new game, and new money.

Brenneke should find a new career. I would call brenneke anything but smart.

Anonymous said...

One of his lenders reduced the appraised value on a client’s home from $1.3 million to a lender estimate of $750,000, he said — an “extreme example” that failed to scuttle a deal

*

Try $300k then it might sell, but probably not its probably out in the middle of no where or was a custom house that only a mother could love.

The PAUL-DOH size big dick homes are fucked.

Anonymous said...

“Until investors kind of come back to the table,” Hollowell said, “buyers will just have to take it.”
*
Investors ARE NOT coming back to the table, they just lost their life savings, its going to take years to convince suckers to buy MTG BONDS.

Right now sub 'bbb' is 30 cents on the dollar, and 'aaa' is 87 cents, and 'AAA' is 89 cents.

The notices of loss haven't even been sent out, just wait another six months the ONLY MTG will be fanny and freddie, and they don't do jumbo.

Anonymous said...

Top community he will have made the deal of a century. 200+ acres for about $6M in the heart of Bend. He could not have been so foolish to buy the club in the middle of a PUD with a master plan and not know he could redevelop.
*
If you were talking Boss Hogg Hollern, or super-lawyer, I meet agree, but Brenneke is an outsider, and this two horse town is loyal to its own.

Brenneke is FUCKED.

Anonymous said...

Hmmmm... Anvil. Stiffening. Crushed Nuts. Maybe Paul-doh and his latent homophobia are ready for the Senate!
*
Go to the Redmond Airport, and visit the toilet stall, knock on the wall and flop your feet.
This is your entry into the US senate.

Deny your love for your fellow man, but travel frequently, and use the net to find the best airports.

Anonymous said...

Brenneke is FUCKED.

Then why would the club members be offering up $9M for him to go away? Seems they should offer him $1 and tell him they will drop all the suits if he goes away.

The city says the hotel is a non starter, land use attorneys say it's a non starter. So why are the club members offering him so much $$$ for a money losing golf club?

Anonymous said...

So why are the club members offering him so much $$$ for a money losing golf club?
*
Show me the money, the club-members or the owner could have bought it from Bauhofer, things are much worse now, also its game over.
A year or two ago you might have convinced a few people it was worth $50k/each, HELOC was still ON.
I think that you'll see neither the home-owners or the club-members ANTE, easy money is over, and Broken-Top is ALL PHONY RICH.

SO pray tell where in the fuck is this $50k++ going to come from???

Anonymous said...

the club-members or the owner could have bought it from Bauhofer, things are much worse now, also its game over.
Why would they? They had a developer subsidizing the losses. Brenneke comes along and says he will continue to subsidize the club losses IF he can put a huge hotel and hundreds of condos in the middle of the place. Of course once the hotel and condos are built, the subsidy would end and Broken Top would find itself in the same place - a money losing club with no sugar daddy.

Anonymous said...

Why would they? They had a developer subsidizing the losses.
*
ALL FUCKING BEND GOOF COURSES are subsidized by a developer this is a dead-horse in this forum.

ALL FUCKING BEND GOOF RESORTS have goof course, because they're cheap to build, and help sell home, after that you dump the shit. Thus Bauhofer was the smart one.

Old Brenneke was looking @ peak market for a BEND PLAY and he found one, he is the greatest fool with OPM. Sort of like OldMill project finding an Australian investor, or Baufhofer selling Broken-Top to a Trust.

Trust-US, if you BUY shit in BEND and/or INVEST we'll fuck you, this is what BEND is all about.

Bend has 24 goof courses to date, they're ALL built to sell homes, and once the marketing is over you dump the goof course. This is NOT a new game.

The real fucking question is "How in the hell did Brenneke get this job"??


Lastly, whether it be club-members or owners, its a terrible investment to buy into GOOF COURSES because long term the maintenance will kill you, anybody STUPID enough to ANTE $50k this week, will be asked for $50k/yr down the line.

With HELOC OVER their is NO way in hell the GOOF's can keep up with the sport, and the home-owners are already into their 401k.

Bauhofer will BUY this place back for penny's on the dollar, and sell to some other Brenneke.

Anonymous said...

DUBYA loving shit eater's of BEND, note DUBYA announced he was going to FIX MTG, and thus the value of 'BBB' RE-MTG bond rose from a fucking to 31 cents a dollar to a whopping 34 cents to the dollar. Fucking BUSH has rescued Bend.

...........

http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSMOL36089220070903

The ABX-HE 2007-1 "BBB-" subprime loan index rose 2 points to about 34.5 on Friday after the Bush plan hit media outlets. The index, one of the only visible ways to track prices in the opaque, over-the-counter market, has lost more than half its value since May and hit a record low close at 31.96 on Thursday, according to Markit Group Ltd.

Investors in the $7.2 trillion mortgage market have been battered in the past year as the rate of delinquency on loans of subprime quality has surpassed expectations. Rising monthly payments for millions of homeowners and reports of falling home prices have left them girded for more losses, and unbudged on bearish positions despite the government's intentions.

Anonymous said...

Dude, who are you talking to? The god-fearing dubya-luvin' rednecks moved out. Nothin' but us Prius-drivin', McMansion-luvin' california Goretastic liberals left.

Anonymous said...

Dude, who are you talking to?
*
There are still a LOT of Limbaugh listening retards in Bend, that if Rush said eat Dubya shit, they would say "how much, when,where, ..." Not a why amongst them.
Bend is DUBYA land, sad fact is ALL the liberals, hippys, ... pulled out long ago, Remember DUBYA is NOT right-wing, DUBYA is National-Socialism ( Nazism ), which is PURE Sister&Bend.

Anonymous said...

If you think Newport and the McMansions and NW Crossing aren't full of liberals, you're crazy. Try talking to them.

I'm thinking you've never bothered to.

Anonymous said...

BOZO you need a REAL poly-sci 101.

PDX is liberal, there ain't a FUCKING liberal in Bend.

DUBYA is BUSH-LITE, which puts him to the left of Attila-the-Hillary, e.g. Cheney in Drag.


If you think that Newport and NWXC are liberal then you haven't been to PDX.

Yes, wrt to Bend perhaps Newport is yuppy, but I have spent a lot of time in NWXC and its the DUBYA afraid of their own shadow crowd, hook line and sinker. Usama Bin Laden in every Juniper Bush.

Bend is Conservative, Eastern Oregon is Conservative. To even suggest that Bend is Liberal is to redefine Liberal, like that GOD DAMN SHIT EATING HBM of "The Sore" likes to call themselves Liberal,

Bend is about making an easy buck on OPM, and that is NOT a liberal concept. Liberals are too fucking stupid or too fucking late to play that game, Bend is 90% BUSH-LITE, and if you don't know what that means, then fucking un-plug your computer.

Anonymous said...

Liberals Don't live in Gated Community's that is RIGHT-WING.

Like Randy Sebastian SAYS'S "I just give them what they want".

Bend is a conservative retirement ghetto, and NOTHING more.

Old white folk afraid of their own shadow that believed they could get 10%/yr on their investments, and now have lost everything.

DUBYA is middle of the road kill niggers for oil, nothing less, nothing more and Bend is 100% behind anybody who doesn't do the killing in their backyard.

Bend Economy Man said...

He could not have been so foolish to buy the club in the middle of a PUD with a master plan and not know he could redevelop.

Lest anyone forget, as I understand it, very little cash changed hands in the purchase of the club. The new owners assumed the debt that the club already owed to Joe Weston. Every Brenneke interview ends with "we don't want to go down the bankruptcy route." That's the Plan B, that's why Brenneke feels like he can play hardball. He'll either get some concessions from the BT members and residents, or he'll let the club go bankrupt. And then who knows who gets the club's assets (and the case will be in federal bankruptcy court, which the BT members might not feel is such a friendly forum). Anyone have different info?

Duncan McGeary said...

BEM, that makes sense to me. The Bulletin article made it sound like he couldn't afford a 'failure', but I think he can spin just about any result into a 'success.'

In fact, his actually buying it himself, without a complete assurance from all parties that he can go forward with his plans, is the only result that he couldn't spin.

But it sounds like he's innoculated himself from that possibility.

As long as 'real' money isn't lost, I doubt he gives a fig about failure.

Anonymous said...

He'll either get some concessions from the BT members and residents, or he'll let the club go bankrupt.
*
Come on big-boyz, virtually every BT resident and/or golfer I know is running out of cash.
That place is full of realtors, and many haven't had a single closing this year, this is terrible time to squeeze cash out of people.
I agree very little real money has changed hands, probably the biggest play would be if Brenneke could secure a note that said 600 folks would ante $50k now, and another huge sum annually. Then he would have something to sell.
The way this deal is going the smart thing would be to walk, and lose a little bit of money and let it go bankrupt.

Either way its going to go bankrupt, because in the next 1-2 year time frame the REAL CASH flow is not going to come from the members or residents, no matter what promises lawyers secure on paper.

Let it go bankrupt, and let the city of bend take it over as a public park would be the best for the residents. The golf course isn't special, as there are 23 other's in the area.

Anonymous said...

Second news clip, still we're being fed slowly. Note that ALL Golf Courses and SKI resorts are ONLY about ONE THING, and that is selling Real Estate.

Note, if Powdr cannot get approval for their mega-development @ Mt-Bach, and build their giant summer resort complex, then they'll just raise prices. Then once there is a positive cash-flow they'll sell it.
*

Mount Bachelor ski area's president hints at changes - Master plan may add facilities and services

The Associated Press

September 4, 2007

BEND -- The view from Matt Janney's office at the base of Mount Bachelor ski area might be quite different in five, 10 or 15 years.

That's because the resort's new president and general manager, who spent the past four years as president and general manager for three Lake Tahoe-area resorts owned by Park City, Utah-based Powdr Corp. (also Mount Bachelor's parent company), will embark soon on a long-term planning process that could change the look and future direction of the mountain.

The changes could include a new lodge to replace the 1960s-era West Village Lodge, increased focus on summer operations, new lifts and other improvement projects that haven't been determined.

Anonymous said...

He could not have been so foolish to buy the club in the middle of a PUD with a master plan and not know he could redevelop.

Lest anyone forget, as I understand it

*

Just two years ago anything was possible, now nothing is possible.

They found a buyer, and now that financing and development is impossible there is no reason to proceed with the plan. Brenneke has no leverage with anyone, he'll walk.

Anonymous said...

the debt that the club already owed to Joe Weston. Every Brenneke interview ends with "we don't want to go down the bankruptcy route."
*
There are going to be many, many bankruptcy's in Bend in the coming years, get used to it.

Anonymous said...

DUBYA loving shit eater's of BEND
*
Big Boobs, augmented penises, big suvs, big houses, this is texas, this is BUSH country.
Beer, desert,...

I think there is a major political confusion with 'yuppy' and 'liberal', its what Hollern calls non-placement bound people, and they're NOT liberal.

They want it all now, and they want it BIG, and they came to Bend to get it fast.

Anonymous said...

Weston donates golf course worth $7M
Portland Business Journal - May 10, 2005

Joe Weston, a prominent Portland real estate investor and manager, has donated his majority interest in the company that owns and operates Broken Top Golf Club in Central Oregon to the Weston Public Foundation Charitable Trust, which supports the Oregon Community Foundation's Joseph E. Weston Public Foundation.

The gift is worth approximately $7 million.


Weston created the OCF Joseph E. Weston Public Foundation in 1991 to receive much of the wealth and property he has accumulated by buying and selling apartment buildings and other properties throughout the region.

Weston donates the land under his buildings to the foundation. The land is leased back to his company, Weston Investment Co. Lease payments provide funds for grants.

The foundation is governed by a seven-member board of trustees and currently owns more than $35.7 million in land. The assets will generate about $1 million in grants to nonprofits this year.

In 2004, the Weston Foundation awarded $1.04 million to Hands On Portland, Oasis Senior Center, the Oregon Food Bank, Saturday Academy, Sisters of the Road Cafe and the William Temple House.

The Broken Top donation is thought to be the first donation of a luxury resort to benefit charity. Broken Top, in Bend, consists of a golf course and clubhouse. It is surrounded by a residential community

Anonymous said...

Weston donates golf course worth $7M
Portland Business Journal - May 10, 2005

Joe Weston, a prominent Portland real estate investor and manager, has donated his majority interest in the company that owns and operates Broken Top Golf Club in Central Oregon to the Weston Public Foundation Charitable Trust, which supports the Oregon Community Foundation's Joseph E. Weston Public Foundation.

The gift is worth approximately $7 million.


Weston created the OCF Joseph E. Weston Public Foundation in 1991 to receive much of the wealth and property he has accumulated by buying and selling apartment buildings and other properties throughout the region.

Weston donates the land under his buildings to the foundation. The land is leased back to his company, Weston Investment Co. Lease payments provide funds for grants.

The foundation is governed by a seven-member board of trustees and currently owns more than $35.7 million in land. The assets will generate about $1 million in grants to nonprofits this year.

In 2004, the Weston Foundation awarded $1.04 million to Hands On Portland, Oasis Senior Center, the Oregon Food Bank, Saturday Academy, Sisters of the Road Cafe and the William Temple House.

The Broken Top donation is thought to be the first donation of a luxury resort to benefit charity. Broken Top, in Bend, consists of a golf course and clubhouse. It is surrounded by a residential community

Anonymous said...

On July 10, 1997, an outside investor, Joe Weston, purchased
32.3 percent of the stock of Broken Top, Inc. for $4.193 million.
The following day, Broken Top Limited Partnership sold the golf
course to Broken Top Club, LLC and sold the real estate
development to a separate Broken Top Development, LLC. This two-
step transaction was designed to avoid having to first offer the
subject property to the members. Although golf-course
memberships are not equity memberships (e.g., no ownership
interest in the property), they have a first right of refusal if
the club is offered for sale to a nonaffiliate. The transaction
was structured in two steps in order to make Weston an affiliate,
and therefore the club did not have to be offered first to its
members.

Anonymous said...

the golf course
would not likely be developed except for the residential
development adjacent to it.
“* * * Absent any such residential development
surrounding it, it is unlikely the subject golf course
could have been feasible or would have been developed,
except possibly as a daily fee course.
However,
considering the subject’s actual status, as restricted by
the MOP [membership operating policies], its highest and
best use would be limited to a private golf club
operation as an amenity serving the Broken Top
development.
“* * * Such courses are developed to provide an amenity
to the surrounding residential properties as a means for
obtaining lot price premiums and faster lot absorption.”
(Def’s Ex FF at 25.)
Thus, each party has its own perspective. Taxpayer views
the subject golf course as an attractive part of its residential
development and accepts that it will have less value in its early
years. On the other hand, the county views the property as a
stand-alone project entitled to be valued without being
restricted to what is best for the surrounding lot sales.

Anonymous said...

evidence indicates that limiting course memberships to
those who own property in the Broken Top real estate development
has slowed memberships in Broken Top Golf Club.
Gary Finicle testified that taxpayer had considered an open
membership but concluded that it would hurt lot sales. He
indicated that he believed people would pay premiums for lots on
a private course versus an open-membership course. Likewise, Kay
Cushman testified that Broken Top receives about a 66 percent
greater price for fairway lots while Awbrey Glen receives only
29 percent. Some portion of that lot premium is attributed to
the exclusivity of golf memberships.

Anonymous said...

Not your average mogul

To Joe Weston, good investments are a tool to benefit the community

By KRISTINA BRENNEMAN Issue date: Tue, Jun 28, 2005
The Tribune
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Joe Weston was just a “snot-nosed kid” in the 1950s when he used $2,500 earned from a paper route to buy a duplex in Northeast Portland.
He still owns the duplex, but he’s added a few more acquisitions over 50 years. Nowadays, Weston owns some $300 million in office buildings and apartments from Raleigh Hills to Lloyd Center.
Though he’s chosen to keep his investments low-key, Weston’s signature is on nearly every mortgage in the Pearl District because of his majority investment in Hoyt Street Properties. And his American Property Management Corp. signs can be spotted on 230 buildings throughout metro Portland.
The company, along with Weston Investment Corp., is based at the Northeast Broadway office Weston built in 1967.
But the 67-year-old “one-man band” is far from finished. He’s now developing the 26-story Benson Tower on Southwest Clay Street, 151 units of housing that will be completed in spring 2007. Weston also is interested in developing the former Beacon Building site, at North Interstate Avenue and Broadway, into condos.
“We can bring that area back,” he says.
To Weston, who grew up poor in Northeast Portland and attended All Saints School and Central Catholic High School, being wealthy means something more substantial than “handing out $10 bills or putting your name on a building.”
Each December, he hands over a piece of his property to the Oregon Community Foundation, which oversees the Joseph E. Weston Public Foundation.
Weston Investment then leases back the property, providing an income to the foundation, whose endowment now totals $44.5 million. Weston has donated 90 parcels of land since 1991, including his $6.9 million interest in the Broken Top Golf Club in central Oregon.
This year, the foundation will disburse $1.25 million in student scholarships and nonprofit grants to organizations including Blanchett House, Camp Fire USA, Friends of Children and Habitat for Humanity.
“Other people can support the symphony and opera,” he says. “My real thrust is to help the working poor.”
Weston even presented the book “The Working Poor: Invisible in America,” by David K. Shipler, to his foundation’s board of directors last Christmas.
The commitment to those less fortunate, Weston says, comes from his parents. His dad was a commission salesman, his mom a nurse who donated time to anyone in need.
Weston “comes from a very modest background,” says Greg ChaillĂ©, president of the Oregon Community Foundation. “He was raised with a tradition of giving within his Catholic faith. His faith guides his giving as well. It’s something that is part of his life. As he becomes very wealthy it is an opportunity to be more philanthropic. He’s acquiring it to benefit the community.”
Weston’s two children, Jeffrey, 30, and Tiffany, 27, are well provided for, he says. “I didn’t want to pass wealth from one generation to another. I made that decision a long time ago.”
As he gets older, Weston’s “enjoying life more, participates in lectures, benefit events for the organization,” ChaillĂ© says.
“There is the message that opportunity is out there for anyone; through vision and hard work you can achieve great things. He’s an example of the American dream. For some businesspeople it’s a break from their tough persona at work. He’s giving people an opportunity.”
Today, Weston — whom friends call “a big gruff bear” — lives an unpretentious life in a rented apartment near the Rose Garden and travels on the weekends to his Beaver Lake home.
“You’re not going to see Joe at Bluehour, he’s at Nobby’s,” said developer Homer Williams, whom Weston met 35 years ago at the Imperial Bank.
In those days, Weston was buying apartments and warehouses and running the Portland Real Estate School, which he started in 1959. Industry veterans still come up to him and say, “You were my teacher.”
“He’s a character, but he’s got a good heart,” Williams said of the man he calls Joseph. “He’s done a lot of good things in the community, and people don’t know about it.”
Weston is notoriously thrifty, Williams said: “I can’t get him to buy a first-class airline ticket. I can’t get him not to get to the back of the bus. It means less money to give to others.”
Weston said it’s just not his cup of tea.
“My parents were dirt-poor,” he said. “I’ve never been exposed to private clubs. I’m very happy eating in middle-class restaurants.”
Weston has helped finance various Williams projects, most notably early Hoyt Street Properties buildings in the Pearl District. And contrary to recent reports, the two men said they have not had a falling-out. Weston said he merely decided not to fund Williams’ future projects.
“He’s very talented,” Weston said. “I just elected not to take part.”
Weston retains a majority interest in Hoyt Street Properties — 75 percent ownership — working with the firm on the Metropolitan building and two other condominium buildings in the Pearl.
“It’s been very good to us,” he said of the Northwest Portland neighborhood. “We have to make some major decisions in the next few months on the rest of the land toward Fremont Bridge.”
Nine city blocks remain of the original property acquired to build on.
“It’s a gamble we took, and everything fell into place with the (low) interest rates,” Weston said.
His career has been all about risk — namely, his.
“I’m a one-man operation and not the most patient person in the world,” Weston said.
Williams described him as a contrarian who buys apartments when everyone else is buying office buildings.
“You never know what the guy is going to do,” he said, calling the Commonwealth Building, the Pietro Belluschi-designed stainless steel office tower on Southwest Fifth Avenue, Weston’s “best buy.”
Weston, who plans to renovate the building’s upper-level interior, said he wishes there were 10 more Commonwealths to buy

Anonymous said...

After Three Years of Planning, Arrowood Development Begins Building
Cascade Highlands, a Destination Resort and Golf Course
Near Bend, Oregon
By Jeff McDonald, The Bulletin, Bend, Ore.
Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News

May 27, 2006 - After nearly three years of planning, developers of Cascade Highlands destination resort plan to break ground next week on the high-end development west of Bend.

Arrowood Development LLC of Bend, owned by Don Bauhofer and John Lietz, on Friday finalized their purchase of 700 acres of land for $31 million.

Arrowood will begin building an 18-hole championship golf course next week that is slated for completion in spring 2008.

The land is the site of the Awbrey Hall Fire of 1990.

In addition to the golf course, the property will include a members' clubhouse, 150-room four-star hotel with adjoining 50 high-end cabins available for overnight rentals, a spa, restaurant, meeting space, 260 single-family homes and 210 townhomes.

The resort's developers are counting on a location close to downtown Bend and Central Oregon's hot destination resort sales market to fuel sales.

"Bend has naturally developed into this wonderful small resort community with visitors from all over the U.S. and beyond," Bauhofer said in a written statement. "The only thing that's been missing is a destination resort. Our goal is to bring a top-caliber resort that not only visitors can enjoy, but also our community as well."

The resort will launch its home sales next spring when 260 lots ranging from just more than 1/3-acre to 3/5-acre become available to a mix of builders and individuals.

"The price is too early to tell," said Femke van Velzen, Arrowood's director of marketing.

She projected that the lots' valuation would be closer to Broken Top than Pronghorn, but it's too early to tell.

Broken Top recently recorded lot sales averaging $450,000 and Pronghorn recently recorded lot sales averaging $800,000, according to Linda Swearingen, a consultant for several resort planners in the area.

By comparison, Caldera Springs, Central Oregon's newest destination resort adjacent to Sunriver, sold 203 of 206 homesites during a two-day sales event in December for between $235,000 and $475,000 for lots ranging from 1/4-acre to more than 1 acre, according to a written statement from Sunriver Resorts, which is developing Caldera Springs.

Another destination resort in Powell Butte, Brasada Ranch, experienced similar brisk sales last June when it sold out 200 lots in a single weekend priced roughly between $200,000 and $450,000. In October, the resort quickly sold its entire stock of 57 cabins ranging in price from $450,000 to about $700,000.

Swearingen does not see any cool-down in Central Oregon's destination resort market.

"There's an increased demand for high-income lots in Central Oregon," she said. "I expect (Cascade Highlands) to do very well when they begin selling their lots."

Van Velzen said Cascade Highlands' build-out is difficult to predict.

It depends on the market, she said.

Cascade Highlands' golf course will be designed by David Kidd, the architect of the highly regarded Bandon Dunes Golf Resort on the southern Oregon coast. It will only be open to the resort's residents and guests, but Van Velzen said the public would have access to the hotel, restaurant, spa and trails.

Arrowood has worked with Central Oregon Trail Alliance for the past 18 months to ensure connectivity between downtown and U.S. Forest Service land while the site is closed to the public for safety reasons.

"Once the resort is completed, there will be ample paved and unpaved trails," Van Velzen said.

Arrowood bought the Cascade Highlands property from Joseph E. Weston of Portland, who is the former owner of Broken Top Club adjacent to the Cascade Highlands property. Arrowood also bought Broken Top for $9.2 million last May.

Anonymous said...

A hearing on the issuance of a permanent injunction is scheduled for 9:30 a.m. on Sept. 4 in Courtroom C in the Deschutes County Courthouse.

Today is the DAY, be there for dirt, tears, and drama.

****

Members battle for control of Broken Top
Group announces plan to buy the club, heads off dues hike
By David Fisher / The Bulletin
Published: August 28. 2007 5:00AM PST

A group of Broken Top Club members has announced its intention to buy the club for themselves by Oct. 24 — a move that would thwart developer Tom Brenneke’s plans to build a hotel/condo and other residences on the private course’s grounds.

The same group of club members also won a temporary restraining order in Deschutes County Circuit Court on Friday, barring the club’s ownership group from raising their dues by 84 percent while the battle for control rages on.

Lisa Kaner, the club members’ Portland attorney, said she hopes the members’ announcement brings the wrangling over the club’s future to a quick close.

“They are interested in putting an end to the current uncertainty over the future of the club and making it clear that it’s going to be member-owned,” Kaner said.

Brenneke, on the other hand, said he signed a purchase and sale agreement last week with the club’s ownership group to buy the club, with its clubhouse, himself for $12 million.

Brenneke said he resigned as the ownership group’s manager and spokesman at the same time to avoid conflicts of interest, but he’s confident that he’s “in a pretty good spot right now.”

“I’m not speaking for the owners. They are going to have to decide what they are going to do,” Brenneke said. “I understand they are pondering their options, and they are smart people.”

The ownership group, which has been identified only as a “Seattle-based family trust,” has not yet appointed a new spokesperson, Brenneke said. The group has issued no public statements on the club members’ intent to buy the club, or on the temporary restraining order to block the dues hike.

“Strategically, I think they just want to monitor things,” Brenneke said Monday. “They have their plan and strategy in place, and so do I.”

The latest purchase move stems from a clause in a contract signed last year by former Broken Top Partners owner Don Bauhofer, who agreed to transfer the club to its members within 10 years through the long process of selling “convertible equity memberships.”

Under Bauhofer’s agreement, each convertible equity member was required to pay up to $55,000 apiece for his or her future share of the club. He gave the members up to 10 years to either come up with 300 members — the number that would trigger the transfer of the club’s ownership — or to write a check to cover an equivalent amount.

The club currently has about 150 equity members, Brenneke said. The equity member group’s announcement that it will exercise the purchase right within 60 days, delivered to the ownership group Thursday, means the group will have to write a check for up to $8.25 million by Oct. 24.

In addition to the amounts already contributed by current equity members, that would bring the membership’s purchase amount up to around $11 million.

Bill Michel, a member of a club committee that has worked on the purchase plan, refused Monday to discuss details of the members’ plans to finance the final cash amount, calling it “a private matter.”

An entry posted by “Your Club Acquisition Committee” on a club members’ Web log in July said the plan included the sale of “Membership Sponsor Program” memberships for $50,000 apiece to raise money for the purchase and for operating cash. The entry also said the group had set up financing through Columbia River Bank for members who wanted to take out a loan to finance their individual convertible equity memberships. The interest rate at the time was quoted at 7.49 percent.

The Broken Top Club, with its clubhouse, restaurant and tennis courts, also includes a Tom Weiskopf- and Jay Morrish-designed golf course that winds among the neighborhoods of Broken Top, one of Bend’s oldest gated communities. Homeowners in the Broken Top community depend on the golf course for their views of fairways and greens, but membership in the club has never been required as a precursor to homeownership there, and most of Broken Top’s homeowners are not members.

Partly as a consequence, the succession of developers who have owned the club have complained that it is a consistent money loser. Brenneke claims it has lost more than $100,000 a month this year, but various groups of club members have disputed that number, arguing that the club’s real monthly expenses — minus the current ownership group’s legal expenses and purchase costs — could be much lower under a member-owned scenario.

The acquisition committee’s blog entry claimed that the group has a three-year plan for adding members to the club’s existing roster of 240 or so, bringing it at least to the break-even point while promising not to raise dues by no more than 3 percent a year.

That would bring the club’s monthly dues from the current $595 to around $650 — well below the $1,095 that Brenneke tried to raise them to, starting Aug. 1.

A group of eight convertible equity members sued the current ownership group in January, within weeks after it bought Broken Top Partners from Bauhofer and his partner, John Lietz. The suit insisted that the new ownership group follow through with Bauhofer and Lietz’s agreement to sell the club to its members.

As part of that lawsuit, Deschutes County Circuit Court Judge Stephen Forte issued a temporary restraining order on Friday, barring the club’s owners from collecting the dues increase and from punishing members who fail to pay it.

To reach his ruling, Forte made two findings of fact, according to documents in the court file: That the club members “have established a substantial likelihood of success on the merits” of their lawsuit, and that the dues increase would do “irreparable harm” to the club members.

In court documents filed Thursday, Kaner argued that the dues increase was meant solely to drive members away in an attempt to thwart the convertible equity members’ attempts to buy the club.

At $1,095, Broken Top would apparently have the highest monthly golf fee for any club in the Bend area, Bauhofer wrote in an affidavit filed with Kaner’s filing, “and as far as I know, for any golf club in Oregon.”

By comparison, Pronghorn, with its two 18-hole courses and 54,000-square-foot clubhouse, charges $800 a month, Bauhofer wrote.

Forte’s ruling was based solely on documents filed by Kaner, the membership group’s attorney. Broken Top Partners’ attorney, Susan Eggum, did not file a response before Forte issued his ruling the next day.

Judge Alta Brady, who has presided over the case so far, was unable to handle the temporary restraining order request because she was on vacation Friday, Kaner said.

A hearing on the issuance of a permanent injunction is scheduled for 9:30 a.m. on Sept. 4 in Courtroom C in the Deschutes County Courthouse.

Anonymous said...

Liberal is conservative these days.

The dems are the party of small government and morality.

Vitter, Craig, Foley, Cunningham, Ney, DeLay, Gonzalez and Dumbya define modern "conservative" values. The evidence of decay is overwhelming. They've entered the guilty plea but claim to be victims of circumstance.

Extremists on either side seem to have converged or switched places, although they are cognizant of this fact. The joke is on them.

The rich can easily circumvent the silly right wing agendas aimed at restricting abortion and gay rights. The moralizing rhetoric isn't meant for them since they can easily evade any restrictions that would crimp the common man. For them it's only about protecting their money, nothing else.

bendbutt said...

The rich can easily circumvent the silly right wing agendas aimed at restricting abortion and gay rights.
*
I have always felt that the whole game plan is to keep people worried about other peoples genitals, and it has worked rather well.
Yes, the very rich are safe, but they're also afraid which is why its easy to sell them gated communitys in Bend.

Now I'll go on my tirade for just a moment. EVERY FUCKING DAY when I'm out walking in this fucking TOWN I get some kind of comment like, ... Put your dog on a leash, or Wash your fucking car, ... It's always from BLUE-HAIRS as I like to walk phils trail, I'm not sure what to say, I used to just shrug my shoulders, but NOW I'm going to start saying "GO BACK TO CALI".

These folks fucking come here to bend, sold a load of BULL, and then they see old farts that look like homeless, but own 1/2 the fucking town, I respect people. That said when I walk the trails and these blue-hairs have to TELL YOU THE RULES.

WHY IS THIS? Where does this fucking PRETENSION come from? This ISN'T FUCKING CARMEL, this is fucking Bend-Oregon, please why does the fucking CITY keep cleaning up this town and selling it to outsiders as CARMEL-CALI??? ITS NOT

I really thing if this keeps going its going to get really fucking weird. There are places where you cannot own a pickup truck, where you must tuck your shirt in your pants, ... Shit if I'm walking my dog out in the woods north of NWXC its nobodys fucking business to tell me to walk my dog with a leash, shit thats why I quit going to the river cooridor. I'm NOT going to start driving to China-Hat to walk my dog.

Lately, I really get the feeling that all of Bend is coming one rich persons gated community. I dress and look like a homeless person, and I'm NOT going to dress-up or drive a fancy car.
I even get fucked with by the cops on my old mtn-bike when I'm cruising downtown. I really feel for the fucking homeless, trouble is that if you dress-down, everyone assumes your homeless.

Thus BEND has become CALI,where if your NOT beautiful you don't belong. This said in my neighborhood everything is fine, its just if you head up towards NWXC, or OVERTUFF, or downtown that you enter another place, another fucking country. I don't even go to Deschutes Brew pub anymore for this reason, because its all been YUPPIFIED, but now bend is being gentrified with ugly wannabe rich calis. Its NOT just the streets they want clean, but the yards, the people, the bikes, .... Shit on my street everyone has a yard car, a trailer, and a RV in their fucking yard. We have all been on the street for years.

Please somebody tell the folks marketing Bend that this place isn't clean, that there are real people that aren't going to go away.

Anonymous said...

HOLD YOUR FUCKING WALLET. Bend Tourism wants to spend a million bucks on buses to haul tourists between hotels, skiing, sun-river, ... WHY in the fuck don't the hotels use their own money? Tourism/Hotels was so bad this year they're trying to figure out why they didn't come? Solution a BUS for tourists. They already BLEW the budget on tourism by paying off people at outside-magazine to say that bend is #1, now PR firm DVA thinks a Million-dollar BUS is the fucking solution. BUY FUCKING BUSES WITH TAXPAYER MONEY AND THEY WILL COME AND BUY CONDOS.

Tackling Bend transportation
Tourism agency seeks a solution for shuttling large groups of visitors
By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin
Published: September 05. 2007 5:00AM PST


The opening of a new convention center at The Riverhouse in December solved one problem for Bend’s tourism industry: where to hold large meetings within city limits.

But it raised another: how to get those large groups of travelers from their hotels to the conference center or to downtown or Mt. Bachelor ski area, said Ron Botts, the director of sales at The Riverhouse Hotel & Convention Center in Bend.

He and other board members of the Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau, who discussed the issue at a board meeting Aug. 28, say the existing public transportation system in Bend does not meet the expectations of large groups and conferences.

“Transportation is the number one problem,” Botts said. “We lose business daily.”

The bureau wants to lead the conversation, bringing together different groups that are affected by the tourism trade and possibly use up to $6,000 of its $852,000 annual budget from the city of Bend to research the topic and find solutions.

Large groups are in high demand throughout Central Oregon because they boost the region’s $498 million tourism economy during the typically slow times of year, Botts said at the board meeting.

The visitor bureau’s solutions could include bringing charter buses to the area for larger groups, expanding upon the city’s already existing public transit system or looking at other local options that would be paid for by a pool of hotels, restaurants and other businesses that benefit from tourism.

Large ski groups from states such as Texas, Florida and Illinois could bring thousands of people — and tourist dollars — but the city does not have an adequate way of moving those visitors around, Botts said.

Currently, The Riverhouse and Mt. Bachelor ski area, another large tourism generator, shuttle some of their larger groups around the region.

But both say they could bring in larger groups if other businesses that benefit from tourism paid their share.

“When our buses are in full swing, we’re footing the bill and putting people in hotel rooms or shopping,” Carly Carmichael, the director of sales for Mt. Bachelor, said after the meeting. “It should be a community effort. We haven’t talked in detail about the different options yet.”

Mt. Bachelor has booked eight smaller ski groups with ski and hotel packages for February and March but could do more business if it could fill the groups’ transportation needs, said Carmichael, who served as a visitor bureau board member until June 30.

“We can handle groups of 20 to 30 people, but when a group of 1,200 calls up — they still can’t come here,” Carmichael said.

Ultimately, Bend needs improved transportation if it wants to attract more national and international travelers, said Doug LaPlaca, who became CEO and president of the visitor bureau Aug. 6.

“Increasingly, the expectations among both business and leisure travelers is that premier tourism destinations will provide comprehensive, affordable and easy transportation from all of the lodging properties to all of the attractions that make the destination extraordinary,” LaPlaca wrote in an e-mail.

The visitor bureau has not made any final decisions about how much it would spend on a transportation system or whether it would simply lead the conversation, LaPlaca said.

But Michelle Marquis, the director of sales at Navis, a Web-based software company, said money from the visitor bureau’s marketing budget would be better spent on advertising.

“A transportation system is like a heated pool in the winter,” Marquis said. “People want to know if you’re going to have it, but they’re not actually going to use it.”

Despite efforts to build its national and international scope, Bend is still predominantly a destination for people who live within a driving distance, Marquis said.

“There are a lot of upsides to having a bus system, but as far as drawing more tourists, Bend is still a rubber tire market,” she said

Timothy said...

>>I dress and look like a homeless person...

People make near-instantaneous judgments. It's how they get through the day. If you dress like that, you're just going to have to accept that people will think you're a loser.

I do the same, and I'm willing to take whatever grief it causes. It's a fate I prefer to dressing up.

I was once left standing at the reception area of a brokerage for 20 minutes as the busy-bees behind the desk polished nails and made phone calls. All I wanted to do was cash in a bunch of stock options. I looked like a homeless person so I got no attention. They probably thought I was just coming in to dry the rain off my beard.

When they saw my paperwork they all straightened up and started acting professional.

Good for you for not playing the game, but you can't be surprised at the responses you get.

Timothy said...

Bend is going to drop millions on all kinds of dumb ideas. There's some kind of delusion that Bend is magic, and any money spent will be returned 7-to-1. You just watch--this city WILL run out of money.

Anonymous said...

Paul, much thanks for the change of viewpoint and personal honesty evidenced in this entry. It boosts your credibility as well. Much appreciated. Keep it fresh.

Anonymous said...

>>I dress and look like a homeless person...

I dress and look like a hippy but I make nearly a six figure salary and am close to owning my home outright. It amuses me to no end the looks I get from stuffed shirts as I cruise around town on my long board. I've even had people yell at me to get a job. What would they know about that?

Anonymous said...

.... Shit on my street everyone has a yard car, a trailer, and a RV in their fucking yard. We have all been on the street for years.

Which street is that?

Anonymous said...

>>I dress and look like a hippy

You must be one of those new right-wingers I've read about on this blog.

Anonymous said...

.... Shit on my street everyone has a yard car, a trailer, and a RV in their fucking yard. We have all been on the street for years.

Which street is that?
*
A lot of old Bend streets are this way.
You need a trailer to haul shit to the dump.
You need an RV so you can sleep when the wife has 'guests' over from the valley.
A yard car is a car you mean to get working, but don't have time because your got 4+.
I forgot to mention the garage for the quads, dirt-bikes, skis, boats, ...
Oh yeh, you need to have an upside down driftboat in your yard, and at least 1/2 dozen kayaks.

Anonymous said...

90% of 'New Bend' are closet Nazis in a gated community, afraid of their shadow.

Perhaps CALI got rid of their worst?

Anonymous said...

Timothy said...

>>I dress and look like a homeless person...

People make near-instantaneous judgments.

*******

I concur it always been that way, but in the day that was what was 'dear' about Bend, you could just float around and enjoy. Long ago all the 'real hippy' coffee shops got shut down and yuppified. Today of course downtown is ALL CARMEL-CALI, not Aspen, but 'cali'. Folks in Aspen are so rich they can do what they want.

In a place like Bend, where literally everyone is a suck-up whore for their bread, you get this mass 'we must all look alike, and drive the same suv, and golf,...'

The fascinating thing is that the only way the status quo can sustain it is to bring in outsiders.

Eventually I guess the status quo can make Bend into whatever they wish. It is a strange place, hell even the Boss Hogg Hollern himself doesn't appear to like what he has created. But the beast MUST be fed with Fresh folk from cali, colo, or Ariz.

Anonymous said...

There's some kind of delusion that Bend is magic, and any money spent will be returned 7-to-1. You just watch--this city WILL run out of money.
*****
Especially after the last bus deal.
Now they're going to BUY super BUS that can run 1,000's of calis from Bachelor to Bend to Sunriver.

Can you imagine super BUS stuck in a snow bank? You know its going to happen. There is NO one BUS for all seasons, hell I have seen the Mt-B buses stuck on side of the road many times and those guys know what they're doing.

Besides people who come to Bend drive I cannot imagine a bus taking the affluent rich around?

There is ONLY one reason for a BUS, get them into a bus fresh out from the Redmond airport and SELL them Condos. Just like they do in Mexico, its when they first land they're tired, you can sell condo time-shares. This is why they want the tourist Bus.

Anonymous said...

So let me get this straight. Tom Brenneke dba Guardian Management wants to buy the Broken Top Club dba Broken Top Partners from his Brother Paul Brenneke & Elaine Dunavan kids (Ava Brenneke and Zoe Brenneke) trust dba Bend Acquisitions. Tom Brenneke is willing to pay $12M for the club but says he will only buy the club IF he can get the entitlements to build an 80' tall 208 room 330,000 sq. ft. hotel and dozens of other condos through out the Broken Top community. Hopefully by now the Brenneke's have come to understand the only way to get those entitlements is IF a super majority of BTCA members agree to the massive redevelopment. So far the BTCA membership has said NO.

Anonymous said...

I dress and look like a hippy

>>You must be one of those new right-wingers I've read about on this blog.

Yes, I'm actually pretty conservative despite my appearance. Having some money tends to do that to a person.

However, in no way shape or form can I support the current crop of Republican frauds & jokers.

Long ago all the 'real hippy' coffee shops got shut down and yuppified.


I really miss Cup of Magic. That was my favorite coffee shop. Now that it is gone, I almost never go out for coffee.

Anonymous said...

The owners of Cup of Magic still live in the westside neighborhood. All you need to do is convince them to re-open the shop.

Timothy said...

Bulletin article says some old-Benders tore a new butthole for the City Council last night at a Juniper Ridge hearing.

Anonymous said...

Three Million dollars is MISSING, and NOBODY seems to know where its at ... This is getting VERY interesting.

***

Members may get Broken Top
Several hurdles must be cleared before club's sale becomes final
By David Fisher / The Bulletin
Published: September 06. 2007 5:00AM PST

The Seattle-based trusts that own Bend’s Broken Top Club intend to sell the club to a group of club members this fall, the trusts’ attorney told a Deschutes County judge Wednesday, a factor that could end months of legal wrangling over the club’s future.

If the deal goes through.

The owners’ Portland attorney, Susan Eggum, was adamant during a court hearing Wednesday that it would.

“They are going to become the owners now, your honor,” Eggum told Deschutes County Circuit Court Judge Alta Brady in a telephone conference appearance, insisting that real estate attorneys for both sides have scheduled “a daylong meeting” to negotiate a deal.

“This case is over.”

That would be good news, if it’s true, the club members’ attorney, Lisa Kaner, said. But Kaner said the owners have refused to turn over key documents, including information on what has happened to the $3 million a group of members chipped in last year to buy the exclusive golf club. And the two groups, so far, also are far apart on a price, even though a mechanism for setting it is spelled out in a contract signed last year.

“What we’re trying to find out is what is the financial status of the club?” Kaner told Brady, pleading for the judge to order the release of information. “… They have stonewalled us on virtually everything.”

And the meeting?

“I have no meeting set up with Paul Taylor (the owners’ real estate attorney). That’s the first I’ve heard of it,” the club members’ Portland attorney, Stephen Janik, said after the hearing, adding that he would look forward to a meeting once his side has enough information to do its due diligence.

Taylor would say only that he has been retained by the club’s owners and it’s early in the negotiating process.

Struggles over the club’s ownership, which erupted in January after an entity controlled by a trust to benefit Seattle developer Paul Brenneke’s daughters bought the club’s controlling limited liability company, carries more at stake than just a simple transfer of control.

Brenneke’s brother, Tom Brenneke, has announced plans to knock down the exclusive golf course’s clubhouse if he can gain control of it himself. In its place, Brenneke says he wants to build a 208-unit, 333,000-square-foot building that would also include a new clubhouse, restaurant and spa for the members, along with a fully equipped athletic facility.

Tom Brenneke also wants to build 88 “villa” units around the club’s tennis courts and 18th fairway.

On the other side of the fence, the eight club members who have sued to force a sale to a larger group of club members who have indicated that they intend to keep the club what it is today — an exclusive private club with a clubhouse and a private restaurant, and a golf course that meanders among the surrounding homes of the Broken Top subdivision. That lawsuit brought the two sides to the Deschutes County courthouse Wednesday. The outcome of the ownership struggle — along with any battles at City Hall that Brenneke would have to win in order to build his vision — could mean the difference between the southeastern edge of Bend staying the way it is, or sprouting significant new high-end developments.

The lawsuit centers around an agreement that former owners Don Bauhofer and John Lietz made in 2006 to transfer the club to a group of “convertible equity members.” The eight members who filed the lawsuit are part of this group.

According to the terms, Bauhofer and Lietz agreed to transfer the club to the members once 300 of them agreed to chip in up to $55,000 apiece for their convertible equity memberships. Existing club members bought in for considerably less than that amount because they were credited for fees already paid.

After nearly 150 members agreed and wrote checks, Bauhofer and Lietz agreed to give them up to 10 years to complete the deal, while promising to maintain the club as a “Class A” golf facility in the meantime.

Shortly after the first convertible equity members signed their transfer agreements, Bauhofer and Lietz sold the club’s holding entity, Broken Top Partners LLC, to an entity controlled by Paul Brenneke’s family’s trusts.

Eight of the convertible equity members filed their legal action about a month after that Jan. 3 sale, saying that the convertible equity agreement traveled with the club — which would mean that the new owner is bound by its provisions. The legal filing was later converted to a full-blown lawsuit after attempts to schedule a mediation session fell through.

On Wednesday, Eggum, an attorney with the Portland firm Cosgrave, Vergeer, Kester LLP, asked Brady to throw the case out of court, partly because not all of the current equity members have signed onto it; partly because the transfer agreement between the club and the equity members requires arbitration before any court actions can be filed; and partly because, she said, the equity members have formally stated their intent to buy the club by Oct. 24 under a clause that allows them to pay for the difference between what has already been invested and what the investment amount would be with 300 members.

Brady refused to toss the case, instead ordering both sides to get ready for her ruling on Kaner’s request for documents, and for a hearing set for Monday at 8:45 a.m. to determine whether a formal injunction should be issued to keep the owners from raising the club’s membership dues while the case is argued.

A full hearing on Eggum’s request to dismiss the case also is set for Sept. 19.

A temporary restraining order already has been issued, barring the club from raising its monthly membership dues from $595 a month to $1,095 a month.

The equity members sank $3 million into the club last year, Kaner said. A clause in the agreement with Bauhofer and Lietz required the club’s owners to use it only for capital improvements on the Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish-designed golf course. About $200,000 of the fund was spent last year on work approved by a member advisory committee before Bauhofer and Lietz sold it, Kaner said, but an accounting has not been provided for the rest.

The amount of the remaining check the equity members will have to write also is dependent upon two bits of information, which Kaner also requested Brady to order released: The number of equity memberships needed to reach 300, and the amount invested by the last equity members to sign up to this point. According to the contract, the number of memberships left to sell, multiplied by the amount of the last member’s buy-in amount, will dictate the final payment.

According to Kaner, members believe they will need to write a check for about $8.58 million under that formula. But the two sides, she said, are about $780,000 apart.

Tom Brenneke has said he has already reached an agreement with the current owners, his brother’s family’s trusts, to buy the club for $12 million.

Neither Brenneke returned calls to their offices or cell phones Wednesday.

Anonymous said...

Timothy said...

Bulletin article says some old-Benders tore a new butthole for the City Council last night at a Juniper Ridge hearing.
......................

please post this for those of us too cheap to pay the BULL

Timothy said...

Sorry, I don't have online subscription. Just the print edition.

Anonymous said...

Ok, so what is the essence of the story? old-benders tear new butt hole in anus-nethy?

Chamber of Commerce is NOT happy about how this WHOLE Juniper-Ridge was done in secret. All so Brogman doesn't have to commute.

Timothy said...

"The Bend City Council was forced Wednesday to acknowledge a 450-signature petition from longtime Bend residents concerned about the process..."

Council did nothing as a result but vote to look into hiring a PR firm (::rolling eyes::) to handle Juniper Ridge.

Sounds like Oran Teater and Bob Woodward spoke in opposition.

Developers spoke too, basically said man, we're not making much here--it's the city that's making out.

Dude, the paper costs 35 cents. Go get one.

Anonymous said...

0

Old guard, developers take sides on Juniper
By Peter Sachs / The Bulletin
Published: September 06. 2007 5:00AM PST

The Bend City Council was forced Wednesday night to acknowledge a 450-signature petition from longtime Bend residents concerned about the process behind the city’s 1,500-acre Juniper Ridge development.

After an hour of discussion and debate, the council took no action, but later voted to look into hiring a public relations firm to handle Juniper Ridge.

Petitions in hand, former mayors Oran Teater and Bob Woodward were the only people at the meeting to speak in direct opposition to the city’s current plans on Juniper Ridge.

“These were not gathered on the steps of Wal-Mart,” Teater said. “They were gathered by concerned citizens of this community that have been giving back for 20, 30 years.”

Both of the master developers spearheading the Juniper Ridge project, Ray Kuratek and Jeff Holzman, spoke at the meeting as well.

“I’ve never seen a large project like this where the developer and the investor made so little for themselves and the city kept so much of the profits, and I think that’s great,” Holzman said.

Though the council did not take any formal action, several councilors recognized the significance of the petitions and offered their ideas for confronting the situation.

“Probably the largest blunder and the reason we’re having this conversation tonight is I think the city has done a really bad job communicating to the people of Bend the pros and cons,” Councilor Mark Capell said.

Councilor Peter Gramlich acknowledged the weight of the nine former mayors who signed the petition, and while that gave him pause, he too stayed in favor of the development.

“I have to respect that, when people of that stature and knowledge and experience in Bend say that they’re concerned and we need to slow down,” Gramlich said. “Those words are resonating with me as proper and something I could agree with.”

But on the flip side, councilors Linda Johnson and Jim Clinton asserted the symbolic importance of moving forward on the project.

“None of the greatest accomplishments that man has pursued were ever achieved by playing it safe and small,” Johnson said.

She and Councilor Bill Friedman vouched for hiring a public relations firm to put a positive spin on Juniper Ridge.

“I’m recommending that the city engage a firm to assist us with communicating this information quickly and effectively,” Johnson said.

The council voted 5-2 to look into hiring a public relations firm.

Friedman urged detractors of the project to wait until the formal development agreement is released.

Capell acknowledged that while he expected that document to come out by now, it may be several more weeks until it is complete.

“We had actually hoped to have it finished by now, and we’re just working out the details,” he said outside of the meeting.

Bend Economy Man said...

The City Council's response to the petition is classic: "People think we're messing up Juniper Ridge. That means we weren't spinning our failures well enough. Let's hire a PR firm."

It's kind of insulting to the people who signed the petition. It's like saying that they just weren't capable of understanding what City Council was doing with Juniper Ridge. Or, worse, that had there been some PR firm between the City Council and the public, no one would've noticed all the Council's fuckups.

Am I alone in thinking that I don't expect local government's mistakes to be glossed over by spin doctors in a town of 75,000 people?

Basically this reply to Bend's "old guard" (prominent locals who were born here or who've been around at least 20-30 years) is: "Thanks but no thanks. This isn't your town any more."

Timothy said...

>>Councilor Peter Gramlich acknowledged the weight of the nine former mayors who signed the petition, and while that gave him pause, he too stayed in favor of the development.

Holy cow. How many mayors do we have. It's like trying to keep track of Dr. Who.

Anonymous said...

Basically this reply to Bend's "old guard" (prominent locals who were born here or who've been around at least 20-30 years) is: "Thanks but no thanks. This isn't your town any more."-bem
*
Hello, BUT listen to the fucking debate.

Brenneke, Weston (BT) out of town guys that fuck around with raw desert land and turn it into gold and sell it to other fools.

The locals, and/or old timers don't mean shit. Hello where have you been?

Anonymous said...

I love this town, boss hollern long ago sold this town to out of state assholes, and now the 'old-timers', now that there all 'riche' they're not fucking happy!

Holy fucking shit. Money doesn't buy happiness, and selling your next door land to asshole doesn't fuck up your yard.

Anonymous said...

“I’ve never seen a large project like this where the developer and the investor made so little for themselves and the city kept so much of the profits, and I think that’s great,” Holzman said.
******
BULL FUCKING SHIT, lets remember that to date, NOT a fucking dime has been made.

These bitches talk as if the money is already coming in. The city paid $1 for 1500 acres, and they plan on selling the land for $1.6M/acre, trouble is there are no buyers, and the anchors ( Les Schwab ) pay nothing. There are NO suckers coming to Bend, there is no fucking money. Why do whores talk as if money has been made?

The ONLY bitch that has made money is Kuratek who is going to make $2M whether JR gets built or not.

First and foremost the CITY pays, and that means the FUCKING tax payers.

Anonymous said...

At least we dont' have to guess who the PR firm is ?

DVA the UBS PR firm for Bandon, best known for getting taxpayers to pay $30M for a private golf airport is know for getting folks to take their daughters to golf courses for de-virgination.

Anonymous said...

“Probably the largest blunder and the reason we’re having this conversation tonight is I think the city has done a really bad job communicating to the people of Bend the pros and cons,” Councilor Mark Capell said.
*
Probably the BIGGEST fucking blunder was total fucking illegal secrecy, all supported by the Source and the Bulletin.

Hello, if your not making money on real estate, get the fuck out of Bend.

To date ALL fucking JR documents were secret MOU's, what the fuck can an expensive PR firm do now except take what meat is left on the bone??

Remember the bone they're chewing on is that of the taxpayer.

RECALL and FUCKING SOON

Anonymous said...

“I’m recommending that the city engage a firm to assist us with communicating this information quickly and effectively,” Johnson said
*
If they have cunts they're PR-Bunny's, if they have dicks they're ass-kissers.

Either way Bend is about to get a warm tongue gently slid up its ass by the best PR that Bend can BUY from DVA.

Let's spend more money, already the city is on the hook to Kuratek for $2M whether it gets built or not, so lets spend another $1M on lawyers and PR, who gives a fuck, everyone is from out of town, and in the end its only the old-timers who stick around that pay the bill.

Anonymous said...

Let's never forget that is was our mayor and city council that fucked up on Juniper Ridge, and forced it down the city's ass.

Thus all the money spent of PR firms, bay change the blame away from the city council, it doesn't change the fact that they have cost the city $3M whether JR gets built or not, and I might add that money is ALL down the toilet with NO return.

In summary, the entire City Council MUST be recalled ASAP, and flush the entire city administration down the toilet because they're all infected.

Timothy said...

>>DVA the UBS PR firm for Bandon, best known for getting taxpayers to pay $30M for a private golf airport is know for getting folks to take their daughters to golf courses for de-virgination.

Wow. That statement made me feel so dirty I had to use a ball washer.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Wow. That statement made me feel so dirty I had to use a ball washer.

I don't care where you from, that there is FUNNY!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

“Probably the largest blunder and the reason we’re having this conversation tonight is I think the city has done a really bad job communicating to the people of Bend the pros and cons,” Councilor Mark Capell said.

I see the "con" of bankrupting Bend as substantially LESS DESIRABLE than communicating that fact effectively.

Here's something: How about you AVOID BANKRUPTCY so you DON'T HAVE TO COMMUNICATE IT EFFECTIVELY?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Bandon, best known for getting taxpayers to pay $30M for a private golf airport is know for getting folks to take their daughters to golf courses for de-virgination.

Now.... where exactly is this golf course?

Anonymous said...

Bend was sold to national REITS.

Bend was sold to out of town 'investors'.

Now you BITCHES no longer control your government.

If you had a fucking way to know in this city how campaign contributions were paid you would know that city/county council is owned by out of state interest.

Thus enjoy your new town, a little desert town of 75K completely owned by out of state boss-hoggs.

Out of town investors own the PR firms who are their spokesmen. The city council isn't even smart enough by definition to articulate the goal of their owners. Thus they have to be supplied with PR firms ( DVA), the best part of this is the CITY has to finance the support of the outside to opposed the outside. This should shut the insiders up, having to pay to opposed the outside ownership.

Best made a lot of money, attracted outsiders to buy desert land, sold everything to national REITS. Now Bend is 100% owned by out of state interests and the politicians are 100% owned and controlled by out of state interests. This is common in the US senate, but very uncommon in 75k population towns.

The fault lays with every BEND speculator that sold this miserable town.

Anonymous said...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Bandon, best known for getting taxpayers to pay $30M for a private golf airport is know for getting folks to take their daughters to golf courses for de-virgination.
*
Little DVA PR firm has local office BEND-OREGON, that is the spokes-person for BEND-TOURISM ( Buses,...condo sales ), PR firm for Tetherow, and the Bandon ( ocean golf course ),
In order to bring rich people to Bandon, they built a private airport at the private golf-course, but made the city-of-bandon pay for it, all orchestrated by DVA. The same people run Bandon, the same people run Bend, the same banks, the same lawyers, own the ALL the politicians in Oregon Tourist Towns.

Just GOOGLE "dva bandon bend", or better yet read bendbubble2.blogspot.com.

bendover said...

Old guard, developers take sides on Juniper
By Peter Sachs / The Bulletin
Published: September 06. 2007 5:00AM PST

The Bend City Council was forced Wednesday night to acknowledge a 450-signature petition from longtime Bend residents concerned about the process behind the city’s 1,500-acre Juniper Ridge development.

[ 1500 acres bought from county for one dollar, and city expects to sell the land to suckers for $1.6M/acre, cost was 0.06 cents/acre. ]

After an hour of discussion and debate, the council took no action, but later voted to look into hiring a public relations firm to handle Juniper Ridge.

[ 450 of the oldest, best folks who love Bend, were told to go FUCK THEMSELVES, and reminded them that they had long ago SOLD oregon to national REITS, who now owned the political class of Bend ]

Petitions in hand, former mayors Oran Teater and Bob Woodward were the only people at the meeting to speak in direct opposition to the city’s current plans on Juniper Ridge.

[ Nobody ever testifys against development in Bend hearings, they're 80% occupied by developers, that take opponents to the corner and physically threaten their lives. Bend is a MOB town. ]


“These were not gathered on the steps of Wal-Mart,” Teater said. “They were gathered by concerned citizens of this community that have been giving back for 20, 30 years.”

[ These people were NOT the white-trash that the whore city-judge and cops can bully with dog-off-leash tickets, .... These people are the people who who built Bend before the post 2000 REITS arrived ]

Both of the master developers spearheading the Juniper Ridge project, Ray Kuratek and Jeff Holzman, spoke at the meeting as well.

[ Ray Kuratek is owned by UBS bank, one of the largest banks in the world, based in switzerland. UBS owns Bend, and long ago became the banker. Thus Kuratek is in effect the custodian of Bend ]

“I’ve never seen a large project like this where the developer and the investor made so little for themselves and the city kept so much of the profits, and I think that’s great,” Holzman said.

[ NOT a fucking dime to date has been made selling anything. What has been done is 100's of secret documents promising anchors like Les Schwab free MILLIONS of tax-payer dollars ]

Though the council did not take any formal action, several councilors recognized the significance of the petitions and offered their ideas for confronting the situation.

[ The council has to talk to their UBS handlers and be told what to do, and that requires a few days. ]

“Probably the largest blunder and the reason we’re having this conversation tonight is I think the city has done a really bad job communicating to the people of Bend the pros and cons,” Councilor Mark Capell said.

[ The largest blunder is that Juniper Ridge was an ill conceived project in the first placed. Created by Ray Kuratek, and out of town hustler from California who had been ran out of town for destroying cultural landmarks. He's a UBS hatchet man at large. ]

Councilor Peter Gramlich acknowledged the weight of the nine former mayors who signed the petition, and while that gave him pause, he too stayed in favor of the development.

[ Old Timers don't mean shit. Bend was sold to International Investors. You old-timers don't mean shit to anyone. Welcome to the new post 2000 Bend Oregon ]

“I have to respect that, when people of that stature and knowledge and experience in Bend say that they’re concerned and we need to slow down,” Gramlich said. “Those words are resonating with me as proper and something I could agree with.”

[ The Juniper Ridge project was done on fast-track from day one always in secret. Even the Bend Chamber of Commerce opposed the illegal secrecy that violates ALL State Laws. ]


But on the flip side, councilors Linda Johnson and Jim Clinton asserted the symbolic importance of moving forward on the project.

[ Linda & Jim know who butters their bread, and its NOT the fucking Bend electorate. ]

“None of the greatest accomplishments that man has pursued were ever achieved by playing it safe and small,” Johnson said.

[ Nobody ever got rich working for the little white-trash, or old-time trash, these days if your politically motivated get connected with an International Bank, and in a few years you will become a US Senator. ]

She and Councilor Bill Friedman vouched for hiring a public relations firm to put a positive spin on Juniper Ridge.

[ UBS bank has their PR firm of choice, satellite office in Bend called "DVA", these people are the spokespeople for the owners of Bend, and thus will represent the 'investors' goals, of course the BILL for telling the citizens what to think will be passed to the taxpayer. ]


“I’m recommending that the city engage a firm to assist us with communicating this information quickly and effectively,” Johnson said.

[ Fast-Track, we're losing control, light is on the political cock-roaches, please DVA tell us what to think, here is your retainer, don't worry about MONEY we write the checks, we'll expect to get the money back in the form of campaign contributions. ]

The council voted 5-2 to look into hiring a public relations firm.

Friedman urged detractors of the project to wait until the formal development agreement is released.

[ Just like DUBYA, shut-up and wait until the war is over ]

Capell acknowledged that while he expected that document to come out by now, it may be several more weeks until it is complete.

“We had actually hoped to have it finished by now, and we’re just working out the details,” he said outside of the meeting.

[ To date everything the city-council has ever done WRT Juniper Ridge has been secret. Oregon open-meeting laws forbid secrecy, but the City of Bend has no oversight, as Salem Oregon seems to care less about eastern oregon. ]

Anonymous said...

Just saw another one of these ridiculous posts in the thread below:

"...Prineville only has 10,000+ home units, or 76 years supply..."

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Prineville does NOT have anywhere near that amount of homes for sale. This poster and several others continue to confuse VIRTUAL inventory with REAL inventory.

There is indeed a large amount of VIRTUAL or, in other words, PLANNED housing inventory here. There have been some wildly optimistic developments planned and approved. But this is a far cry from houses that are actually built and sitting on the ground waiting to be sold.

The situation here in Prineville is similar in some ways to Bend, different in others. We were/are much farther behind the curve of overbuilding here. The area is still overbuilt, but only to a fraction of the degree to which Bend is overbuilt, even in population proportional terms. Even if developers were stupid enough to actually want to build all the houses they have approved and permitted, they would run out of money long before that.

Near the end of the boom a year or so ago, Palmer homes rented billboard space here- "Palmer Homes- Coming Soon to Prineville". It has only recently been replaced by a truck ad or something.

Perhaps we should a few hundred more Palmer homes to "virtual inventory" of 10,000 homes in Prineville? Those Palmer homes that they apparently planned to build here at one point are just as real as most of the 10,000 houses you foolishly keep citing.

I'm not a realtor. I'm not a real estate investor. I think most of the pessimism about the future of the Central Oregon RE market that appears on this blog is warranted. I think most of the vitriol directed at developers and their lackeys in city planning is warranted. And I would not be surprised to see home prices drop quite a bit around here.

But there is not now, and there will not be in the foreseeable future anywhere close to 10,000 houses available for sale here. That figure is ludicrous, ridiculous and silly. Your message will be much more credible if you use some actual facts. Try to differentiate between houses that were PLANNED and perhaps even PERMITTED during the wildly optimistic times of 1-2 years ago, and houses that have actually been built.

I could certainly be wrong, but IMO Prineville didn't go nearly as far off the deep end of overbuilding during the boom as Bend, and therefore does not have nearly as far to fall. Things were just starting to really gain steam here when the bottom dropped out, as opposed to Bend with its phenomenal amount of house building inertia which is still unwinding.

Anonymous said...

There is indeed a large amount of VIRTUAL or, in other words, PLANNED housing inventory here.
*
There is NOTHING virtual about building permits that are approved and paid for.

Lastly, the 80K,+76year is IHTBYB #'s.

My #'s from the LARGEST builder in the area who I know are ...

30 yr inventory
80% homes 2002->2006 bought on spec

The spec problem is the biggest problem, it was mostly bend 'investors' that bought the existing homes. The 30 years is how long it will take at 10/homes per month to sell the exists spec homes to non-spec occupants.

Please why do you keep coming back here, if you don't agree???

Anonymous said...

I could certainly be wrong, but IMO Prineville didn't go nearly as far off the deep end of overbuilding during the boom as Bend, and therefore does not have nearly as far to fall.
*
Prineville will fall to shit, at 100 homes per year selling, it will take 30 years to clear 3,000 homes that were bought on spec, most of the people are bleeding and will sell at any price.

If you OWN RE in prineville, and cannot wait 5-10 years for the price to stabilize your are fucked.

Once the speculators start to get foreclosed on, and start walking away the price of a prineville home will drop to a lower amount that Bend.

Prineville never had the yuppy factor, and thus ALL homes will go back to their natural $30K price.

Bend Economy Man said...

-
Prineville never had the yuppy factor, and thus ALL homes will go back to their natural $30K price.

Ditto that. Sorry Prineville. The only house that should / will cost even $200K in PV is a damn nice one.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I used to think The Bluffs were the Official Albatross of Bend Overpriced Housing. But after a drive by yesterday, I have to award it to Deschutes Landing.

I mean holy crap. They've slashed price on them from $1.5MM+, clear down to $1.295MM... AND THEY ARE STILL DOUBLE (OR MORE) TOO HIGH. You get a view of THE ROAD. You live on THE ROAD. They may well be harder to sell than The Plaza. Which is hard to imagine.

Man, they are building some real expensive eyesores down there. "Otter Run"? That is what an old woman screams at her German husband named "Otter" when she sees a Realtors approaching:

"OTTER, RUN!"

Crazy Germans. Aren't we due for some sort of racial cleansing from them soon? Used to be, you could set your watch to a German racial genocide. What's the World coming to...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Just saw another one of these ridiculous posts in the thread below:

First, how did you somehow get your post ABOVE a post you're commenting on?

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Prineville does NOT have anywhere near that amount of homes for sale. This poster and several others continue to confuse VIRTUAL inventory with REAL inventory.

Are you going to spank us next?

And uh... yeah. We KNOW it's not already BUILT. These are PLANNED RESORTS/SUBDIV'S or whatever. Much of what's is written here is regarding the assinine nature of these developers plans.

"Prineville only has 10,000+ home units, or 76 years supply...."

That figure is ludicrous, ridiculous and silly.


Ummmm, got those figures from the local newspaper, who got them from the developers. Maybe tell them that what you think they're going to do is "ludicrous, ridiculous and silly".

What's weird, is I posted those figures from the local paper, who got them straight from the horses mouth, and you & I both agree that they are INSANE. But you've chosen to somehow say that I AM FANNING THE FLAMES OF FEAR AROUND HERE.

Huh?

I'm just posting what these people SAY THEY'RE GOING TO DO. These are THEIR NUMBERS, not mine. Misplaced anger Dude.

Anonymous said...

What are the prospects for all these out in the booneys destination resorts? Remmington Ranch, Brasada, Pronghorn, 10 others I forgot the name of. They are all big dust bowls. Tiny juniper trees that are hundreds of years old. Tiny cause their isn't any water out there. Hazy cascade views. Just dusty BLM land that can be had for pennies on the dollar outside the gates of these places. Those hotels will never be built. Big money losers.

The cheap easy money is gone now. As such these places will be abandoned ghost towns.

This is gonna make the dot com crash look like childs play.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Hmmm. BendBB has removed a post of mine for "Violating BB rules". That's OK, his board, his rules, his prerogative. But I'll post it here (note, it uses racial and other offensive terms. Offensive I guess if you can be offended by stuff like that). It's on the "Broken Top Club Owner unmasked" thread, page 10:

http://bendeconomy.informe.com/broken-top-club-ownership-unmasked-dt293-135.html

It's essentially a beer-deprived rant about why racism is good, Nazi's are good, and other misc bullshit with no real point.

What is the deal with the dog crap all over Bend these days?

Dude, have some respect. They went to school for a full 20 minutes to get that Realtor license.

Ahhh yes... on to "Glen":

Any chance you'd be willing to stand up and use your real name?

Dude, here's a quote from the Sisters Nugget News Editor in Chief (and owner) about a meeting of the RE cognesenti in Sisters:

There were a hundred people in the room last Thursday, most of them with concerns with how the city is being run. Many more have declined to speak up because of fear of retribution. The city council needs to deal with these issues strongly, clearly and immediately.

The piece is here

http://nuggetnews.com/main.asp?SectionID=16&SubSectionID=16&ArticleID=13301&TM=43769.1

Note the word RETRIBUTION. You are taking a fairly non-controversial stance in this town.

"Hi. I've moved here & bought as assload of money with me and paid top of the heap prices to make less money. I don't know it yet, but my 401K will be gone in 5 years, but I'll enjoy the sunshine, mountains, etc before I am sent packing, tail between legs, having done nothing but gone broke."

Dude, PEOPLE LOVE THAT. They LOVE that you are willing to dissipate your lifes savings here. You know what they HATE? Me, and others like me that upset the apple cart of FRISK-EM & FUCK-EM economics.

Again, this "I'll show you mine, are you man enough to show yours", is bullshit.

I worked for 17 years at Hewlett Packard as an Electrical Engineer.
My wife built her career in Banking.

Good. Let me take a guess here. Your wife came close to par getting a job here, and you, on a relative basis, STUCK OUT. I'm NOT asking you for an apology. But try pulling your head outta your myopic california ass for 10 seconds, and realize that the INABILITY of people like you, well qualified techo-nuts, to get jobs here IS a problem. It dictates MATHEMATICALLY (bust out your slide rule) that housing will implode here. HAS TO. Now, you seem to focus on YOUR PROBLEMS, or lack thereof. Gravy. I'm used to that. That's what 9 out of 10 patients who chew gum & migrate from Cali do. FUCK YOU INDIGENOUS BENDER DUMBSHITS, is their attitude. Hence the vitriol.

Just pointing out that I had to borrow money to go to school, worked several jobs while I was going to school, and paid back all of the money that I borrowed. That's what rich snobs like me do.

Yeah, me too. But this is irrelevant. Tim, how about YOUR student loans? Anyone else? Yeah, no one's brought up this self-serving crap cuz it's irrelevant.

Yes it's strange to be judged based on where I live, and your obvious implication here is that I am doing the same simply because I don't live on the east side of town. That's just nonsense. I'd be the same person regardless of where I happened to buy a house. Moving to the east side would do nothing to change me, and it's sad to think that it would change somebody's perception of me.

So, you OFTEN hang out on China Hat Rd with meth types? How about the homeless shelter on Revere? Come slummin' to the Eastside much?
No. I thought not. "I'd be the same person regardless of where I happened to buy a house." This is sort of odd. Much like Pam Lesters infamous statement ("Prices will only go up, because they can't go any lower"), the converse seems impossible. Besides I never said you'd be a different person by the mere purchasing of different homes. The home you DID BUY DOES have some bearing on WHO YOU ARE. Which explains in large measure why you will not come to the Eastside... and in all probability never would have.

Again, I'm amazed that you know so much about me solely by where I live. I can only assume that you've spent a lot of time here in Broken Top and have spent the effort to meet the residents so that you can state that I'm a disingenuous lier. I guess that you don't judge me based on your perception of my socio-economic status...right?

Actually, yes, I do. I know with extraordinary certainty that you're WHITE. Your wife is WHITE. You're from Cali so your cars are powered by your sense of self-satisfaction, and your homes load bearing walls are rolled up Kerry/Edwards bumper sticks. You're in the transition zone between 9 ton SUV and Toyota Prius, cuz your Brad Pitt shrine is finally making you see the light on how hypocritical it is to shriek about the environment from your Escalade. You EMBRACE racial harmony... as long as it don't come within a country MILE of your house (hence the gates). You rationalize being an asshole "in business" just as long as you tithe $100 year to THE POOR, which you put on T-shirts SO NO ONE WILL MISS IT. You LOVE the environment, and admonish drilling in Alaskas Front Range, but it's hard to hear you over your Yukons A/C. The topper is you think your KING OF THE WORLD and you'll be running this shithole in a year. And finally, this description fits you to a degree that actually is frightening, BUT YOU'LL NEVER ADMIT IT.

Not looking for sympathy, particularly from anybody who judges character solely by mailing address.

Cabrini Green in Chicago. You know what, Cabrini was a (failed) experiment in inner city "affordable" housing. Now, this will FREAK YOU OUT, but actually you could tell A LOT about people who lived in Cabrini. Even when you DID NOT KNOW THEM INDIVIDUALLY. I'll let you visit Chicago, and see if you can pin down the commonality.

Been to the Indian subcontinent lately? Me neither. But I'll guess this HAVING NEVER MET ANYONE FROM THERE: Ready? OK, here it is:

They're Indian.

Overwhelmingly good chance that they're Indian. Nope, I ain't Kreskin. I take advantage of a little known skill that I share with only 4 other people: I make generalizations about the FOREST QUICKLY without having to observe every single TREE IN THE FOREST.

"Hey Paul-doh, there's a FOREST FIRE!"

"Oh no! Are trees involved? Which ones! It's hard to draw any real conclusions until I can hear a litany of detail about each & EVERY ONE! Oh no! It's paralysis!"

See Glen, I am a RACIST. I am a BIGOT. The great thing, is so are you. SO is OJ. So are black, underaged single pregnant black girls. So is Bill & Hillary. I draw quick generalizations based on visual cues & experience to form opinions about WHAT IS HAPPENING. If I am surrounded by black guys in Cabrini who are bearing knives, I know I'm in some shit. According to you, maybe they're about to sing me show tunes.

According to you, there could be single black underage pregnant girls inhabiting MOST of Broken Top. I KNOW that is NOT THE CASE. And I have NOT been there. Gates, you know.

Sounds good to me. I already do all of the things you ask and quite frankly so do my friends and neighbors

You know, this indicates YOU ARE AN UNREPENTANT ASSHOLE. I am an asshole. I know it. I have found MOST of the population is. The people I find sort of interesting are the ones who REALIZE and ADMIT it. Do some soul searching dude. You will almost certainly be appalled at some of the things you've done.

I'm sorry that I've offended you so. Could you please tell me which particular disingenuous lie I've personally told has caused the most grief?

The second sentence references the first. Are you REALLY sorry? No. Disingenuous.

Who knows...maybe Paul and I could get along if we met somewhere outside of the realm of internet bytes. Hey Paul...wanna meet for a cup of coffee some time?

Probably true, sounds good. But be warned:

I use the word NIGGER sometimes. I don't think Mark Furman's use of the word NIGGER justifies killing someone. If I say NIGGER, and you die of fright, I WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE.

I am curious why black people use the term NIGGER on a near constant basis, and when white people use it, black people can kill white people and use that as justification in a totally different time & place, and EVERYONE thinks it's OK.

I am curious why swastika's are offensive to people, but the Japanese Rising Sun flag painted on the side of Zero's and responsible for killing thousands of American's is not equally demonized. The swastika was a symbol for the Entire German Nation, a country that is our strong ally today. Yet it has been associated with ONE MAN. Someone with a lot of time on their hands painted some swastika's in Sisters, and MANY people (virtually everyone) engaged in self-serving back-patting about how horrible it was and did the requisite RECOIL IN HORROR. Really? Why? Someone die of fright?

I am curious why Adolph Hitler is so reviled when he his a second rate petty tyrant, responsible for killing FAR FEWER people. The Rwandan slaughter happen on Bill & Hillary's watch... did you protest? Send a little note? Anything? Uh huh.

See Glen, I'm real inconvenient to get to know, cuz I won't gloss over BULLSHIT when I see it. I like to talk about & defend RACISM and why it may actually serve some sort of Darwinian purpose (that's the conflicting nature of liberalism. Just like the Bible... So internally inconsistent it's hard to figure which way is up), and most people have a knee-jerk reaction to things that they don't even think about for 2 seconds.

NIGGER.

What does that make you think about me? That I'm a great, open-minded guy? Saying the word NIGGER to get a reaction is less interesting to me than WHY THERE IS A REACTION at all. If you can get people to RECOIL in horror when they hear the word NIGGER, or even get them to think a whole World of internal detail about what uttering that word means, it means that you can PROBABLY get them to do the same thing if you say SAUERKRAUT. Why? That's why over on my blog "BendBust", a fairly offensive & long-winded guy(?), goes on extraordinarily long benders, using terms almost everyone finds offensive. HIM? Yeah, him I'd like to meet.

Ahhhh well Glen, you've probably heard more than you can stomach, as I know have. I'm just having one of those weeks. Haven't had a beer in like 6 weeks and it's killin' me! But I'm just a little TO'd by little piddly bullshit like the person who wonders WHY IS THERE ALL THIS DOGSHIT IN BEND? Why are kids coming into my store, wrecking shit, and parents just WATCH SMILING? Why are people parking in handicapped spots, hang their tag, and walk merrily in the store.

WHAT THE FUCK IS HAPPENING TO THIS COUNTRY?

And Glen, when I use my human ability to loosely associate the RISING ASSHOLE QUOTIENT in Bend with the RISING CALI QUOTIENT, and I get a little Holier Than Thou backlash from a Cali immigrant... well, it leads to too-long, quasi-irrelevant posts.

OK, and your taking the brunt of it, probably undeservedly. But realize that I've only been here since 2001. I moved here to get away from assholes. And that today the place is packed to the gills with 'em. And they are predominately Californians. One thing: WHY ARE YOU HERE? You say you like the people here... really? Because I can tell you that meeting people today in Bend gives you a precious small chance of actually talking to a long-time indigenous Bendite. You are far more likely to be talking to a Californian. Which sort of begs the question, WHY? You make less money given the costs, and the border of CA for all intents & purposes should be redrawn in a long rectangle to include Bend. This place has been Californicated to an unrecognizable extent. It barely resembles what it was like just 6 years ago. I can't imagine the changes from 20 years ago.

Here it is Glen: I SUCK & YOU SUCK, and damn near anyone who's gotten here in the last 20 years SUCKS. But those who've gotten here more recently suck the most. That's you. Sorry, but that's how it goes. The best you & I can do, is to SUCK AS LITTLE AS WE POSSIBLY CAN. Now, I'm from the Midwest so I genetically suck about 1/100th as much as you do, so you'll have to try harder. But if you pursue NOT SUCKING as much as you pursue whatever selfish bullshit you consider important, you can make it. The first step is ADMITTING YOU SUCK. OK?

I AM PAUL-DOH, AND I SUCK. I am part of the problem. I should leave Central Oregon, and so should you, cuz you SUCK. But part of our horrible SUCKINESS is we won't. WE SUCK.

But Glen, you've got more to do. Cuz due to your inbound, money-grubbin', rude, insensitive, selfish, hypocritical ass & a few thousand like you, hundreds or probably thousands of NATIVE BENDITES have had to leave. They can't afford it here anymore. Economic Death Zone, Glen. And you are at fault, and those like you (EQUITY LOCUSTS). OK, that's part of why you suck. Your not giving a shit about them being forced to leave is WHY YOU SUCK THE MOST. It's the WORST THING ABOUT YOU, AND YOU ACTUALLY SEE IT AS A GOOD THING.

OK Glen, I'm renting at FAR BELOW THE COST OF CAPITAL. I'm actually making it financially impossible & untenable to OWN AN OVERPRICED HOME HERE. See, owners gushing red ink. That's part of my penance. It's why I suck less than you. You? You bought. Made the problem worse. You suck, and worse you don't think you suck and came on here spewing disingenous bullshit, try to make me feel like I suck more. That's 1,000 Hail Mary's of "I, GLEN BAKER, SUCK", OK? Can't do that. I KNOW I SUCK. You telling me I suck when you yourself SUCK MORE THAN I EVER HAVE OR WILL equals 1,000 hail Mary's of pronounced self-suckiness.

OK, I've given you something to work with. Just remember: YOU SUCK, but the good news is so does damn near everyone else from CA, and certainly everyone from CA living in Bend. Hell, look at BendBB: He sucks. But he's been here like 23 years, and he sucks so much less than he did when he got here. Didn't know him then. Don't know him personally now. It's genetic, and in that way it's maybe not his fault. Maybe he was born in CA. You're from Seattle, then moved to CA. Stated it like it was a Good Thing. No. Bad. Volunteer Suckiness. Went to CA under your own power. OK, tripled your suckiness score.

Anonymous said...

It's essentially a beer-deprived rant about why racism is good, Nazi's are good, and other misc bullshit with no real point.

The essesense of most Paul-Doh's posts, but great entertainment.

Anonymous said...

I AM PAUL-DOH, AND I SUCK. I am part of the problem. I should leave Central Oregon, and so should you, cuz you SUCK. But part of our horrible SUCKINESS is we won't. WE SUCK.

That would make a good subhead for this blog. The one you have now sucks: "Debating the Bend Oregon Real Estate bubble, its implications for Bend residents, businesses, and the economic outlook for this area."

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


That would make a good subhead for this blog. The one you have now sucks: "Debating the Bend Oregon Real Estate bubble, its implications for Bend residents, businesses, and the economic outlook for this area."


True. Should be the Masthead for the Bulletin.


The essesense of most Paul-Doh's posts


Wow. I can't believe someone actually read it. It was vile, self-serving tripe.

Bend Economy Man said...

Sisters Nugget. 'nuf said.

Timothy said...

>>Wow. I can't believe someone actually read it. It was vile, self-serving tripe.

I didn't read it. Too fucking long.

Anonymous said...

You one crazy white boy mistuh paul!!!!

bendbutt said...

I read it all, nothing new same old shit. Hey paul, did you know bashing cali's is what got me banned from bendbb! :)

Anonymous said...

Those hotels will never be built. Big money losers.

YES

The cheap easy money is gone now. As such these places will be abandoned ghost towns.

YES

This is gonna make the dot com crash look like childs play.

YES

...

What were the investors thinking?? They were thinking they were going to get rich, note that almost all this worthless desert land was developed by Brooks Resources, and the lots are going no where, deja vu, 25 years later still land rich, cash poor. Whats a mother to do.

BENTBUST said...

Paul,

You made me laugh so hard, I think we need to post what got me banned from bendbb, and note this really isn't bad at all, I have wrote over a dozen articles on how bend cops eat dog shit.

****

Californians are Goblins - Oregonians are Hobbits

Regarding the California 'Silver Mercedes' that ran a girl down, and then the drivers parents helped hide the car an claim an insurance loss.

Are ALL asshole's Californian's??

I moved to Oregon in the 60's, I haven't been back to CA for forty year, but I remember it well.

Everyone in hurry, self important, they even have a word for a 'stop-sign' its called a 'california stop', where you slow down to about 25mph, near a school before you go through the intersection. If you have the audacity to actually stop at the sign folks behind you honk their horn.

Road rage in California commonly ends in gun violence.

When I moved to Orygun there were signs that said, visit but don't stay.

Our Oregon fore-fathers were smart ol bastards, they weren't politically correct. They knew that californian's were a fester, a canker sore, a cancer of the worst kind. They're in Bend and they're breeding.

The silver mercedes is simply a product spawn of his/her parents, they can be found near Drake Park everyday drugged out while their parents whore at the local RE or MTG shop.

Bend is a Gold Rush town Just like the 1849's, trouble is the Gold is Gone, and its going to take awhile for the carpet baggers to figure this one out.

There is NOTHING wrong with calling a Californian what he/she is, its an Orygun Tradition.

Oregonians are like Hobbits we're gentle folk and NOT in a hurry, almost ALL californians are Goblins.

The politically correct crowd in Bend may say its NOT PC to tell the truth, but the truth is that MOST folks from CA are Goblins, and they Spawn more Goblins.

What in the hell does this have to do with the Bend Bubble, a lot actually, these Californians are what caused and created the Bubble { Real Estate Overheat Insanity }.

There is a political correct movement in Bend that says nobody should be offended, that its not right to suggest that Californian's are evil, but the facts speak for themselves, and for generations Oregonians didn't want Oregon Californicated, and of course this is exactly what has happened to Bend.

Our current leaders have Californicated Central Oregon.

REHO said...

Oh yea, and 'calis are goblins' was published in early april 07, when realtors were still saying that there wasn't going to be a bust.

Anonymous said...

The below little jewel was my favorite from the nugget, yes little sister a young whore of its bend brother, and the politicians are operating in secret just like Bend. Where in the FUCK is the Oregon Attorney General, the county needs to have a class action lawsuit against city arrogance.
**
Last Friday I went to a settlement conference with Judge Sullivan and the Sisters School District (SSD) in an attempt to resolve the record-keeping lawsuit.

The board of directors will not comply with ORS 192.650. They refuse to document the views of the participants when holding executive sessions. They want a separate standard of record keeping for non-public sessions.

If the SSD prevails, the board could frustrate public meeting law and public policy, ORS 192.620, by holding unlawful executive sessions. If there is no record then there is no remedy for an unlawful board meeting. Even though they can lawfully withhold records of executive sessions from the public, this board does not want a record to exist for review by a court of law. These are elected officials and they are unwilling to let a judge review what they say.

This is a continuation of the district's secrecy agenda. The recent talk of openness and transparency is disingenuous.

Forest Gimp said...

SPEAK-UP

Its the old Nazi story, and I hate use it, buts its quite apparent.

The rhetoric was "Why didn't anybody stop the Nazis"?

The answer was everyone was on Hitlers payroll.

Today in Bend, folks still cannot go to city council and publicly say that the emperor has no clothes, because 99% of the people who control and appear at council meetings have a vested interest to build and develop.

Soon the system will implode, I ditto that Bend will become bankrupt. Then everyone will say "Home come nobody stopped the insanity"?

The reason was everyone that they were getting rich robbing and killing jews, and nobody wanted to stop the slaughter.

Human nature. Greed will now turn to Fear, then Hate, ... Then self pity.

Anonymous said...

Just read that Countrywide is canning 12,000 employees in addition to the 900 they just axed. Four months ago their CEO Angelo (orangelo) Mozillo was telling everybody how great everything was (until he finished unloading his shares of CFC). Now he is saying he hasn't seen things this bad in his 55 years in business. Check out a pictur of the guy, his fake tan is sweet.

bilblow said...

I think Paul-doh went over the top, I still hate it when someone points out that 'gentrification' is a fact of life. So get used to it, or leave.

I'm well aware. And so is the anger toward gentrification.
*
Gentrification has destroyed Sellwood, Hawthorne, and now Brooklyn in PDX.

In my humble opinion this is obvious given the baby boom and that the the critical mass is now approaching 55.

Gentrification is Bend is not the problem. Its a completely different problem, all the cool old areas are being gentrified in PDX.

But in Bend its NOT gentrification. Bend only exists to import tourists, and to sell them time-shares, this goes back 20+ years to Eagle-Crest.

This is NOT gentrification, this is Mexico where all tourists are put on a bus and sold condos and time-shares upon landing a completely different issue.

In PDX there is true gentrification, this is when the old with money, overwhelms the young poor hip areas, this is called life, and it ebbs and flows like the tides.

Bart Simpson said...

I'm well aware. And so is the anger toward gentrification.
-duncan

The negative aspect is the money of the old drives up prices, drives out the old, and soon there are no cool places, because there are no way low wage folks can live in the hood.

I don't see gentrification in Bend, but I see it all over in PDX. In Bend I see real estate speculation by all. Everyone in Bend is about making a quick buck.

In PDX you really do have bohemian areas where people choose to live ten to a house, and just hang out, create art, drink coffee. I see none of this in Bend.

In PDX people ride bikes to commute, in Bend people ride bikes to exercise and recreate. Therefore everything in PDX is practical, and all in Bend is work or idle rich entertainment. People in PDX choose not to drive a car for environmental reasons. In Bend people drive their car like they would any in california suburb, e.g. every where they go.

I see gentrification as a fact of life. Areas get run down the bohemians move in create art and food and it becomes trendy, then the wealthy old buy into the community, which drives out the bohemians, in time the hood contains only starbucks. This is what is happening to downtown Bend, the small shops are being driven out, but NOT because of gentrification. In Bend it is because of speculation.

PDX is an established town. Bend is a wild west gold town. Trouble is the gold is gone. Long ago Bend lost its way when the gold was most recently struck. As Brooks says Bend is non-placement-bound people, that will not lead to gentrification, as these people will all move on to the next gold-rush somewhere else. Years ago, in my MOST fond memory of Bend pre 1986, Bend was an established town.

In my humble opinion today, the Bohemians long ago left Bend, today Bend is only about ugly money mad people who care only about their car, and credit cards, and makeup, and clothes, ... The truly ugly American makes up the basis of what is today Bend.

This last type of people I have described have taken over city-hall, and use it to run fund the PR firm DVA, who in turn attracts more of the same kind of people. Which in turn come to Bend to buy real estate and bring more of the same kind of people. These people have taken over the police department, and have used it to drive away the 'red necks' ( old timers ), and thus today Bend is predominately ugly Americans.

There will be no gentrification in Bend as these ugly people will not stay, as they have created a giant real estate ponzi scheme, and the last sucker has bought. There is NO greater fool coming to bend.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Hmmm... I'm going to go out on a limb, and guess that BendBB will delete this post on his BB I made in response to a post by Bend High (which has already been deleted):

If you want to bash a neighborhood and all that live in it try the Highlands at Broken top.

Sorry, I chose wrong.

Good luck with that outreach, Glen.

It'd be nice if Paul Doh!pe were truly open to any kind of outreach, or exposure to the culture that's around him.

"Bend High".... real name I suppose. Good "outreach". Right, right. PAUL-DOH = RACISM = LACK OF CULTURE. Anything else? Stereotyping at it's finest.

But, after reading him for almost two years now, I can say with assurance that Paul D-oh!pe is a racist, frustrated asshole who is capable of being a frustrated asshole in one of the best towns in America.

Reading for two years, eh? The writings of racist frustrated assholes seem to hold some facination for you. Here's something: STOP READING.

Doubt that he'll take you up on your gracious invitation.

He's not interested in building connections, or building much of anything else here.

Huh. I guess we can lump the other anonymous posters in with me? Tim... wanna narrow that down with a last name? BendBB? Bend Bear? JoeFromSFO? The dreaded "Anonymous"? YOU? Let's ALL COME OUT OF THE CLOSET TODAY! Any takers?

More interesting than WHY we're virtually all of us anonymous, is the PERCEIVED RETRIBUTION that we ALL must obviously feel we'd receive at the hands of the RE industry. I'll bet there's not a person here that thinks they wouldn't suffer some sort of RE backlash if they were "exposed".

IT would be a lot more interesting than these ridiculously destructive rants.

"Destructive"? Here's something:

SAUERKRAUT!

Oh no! Recoil in horror! Racist! DESTRUCTION!

Dude, if words hurt or influence you this profoundly, especially mine, you're too impressionable to be reading some of the stuff here. Patty Hearst School Of De-Programming Community College. Check it out.

"Bend High"... you know Dude: On some level, you're right. I must be in some sort of beer-deprivation coma or something, because I rarely, IF EVER, engage in opinion-based arguments. They can't be won. I can't WIN this one. Ask my wife: I ALWAYS win arguments. NOT because I'm ALWAYS right, or some shit. It's because I pick my battles, they are always factual in nature, and I know better the other sides arguments than they do.

Talking about the merits of "Racism", "Nazi's", "Swastika's" and the like is extremely uncomfortable to many people, I have liberal friends who literally can't form coherent sentences when talking about it. Do you think I was raised to "Like Racism"? Or that my even entertaining thoughts that it has some Darwinian merit equates to my being a racist? That's OK, most people do. Hence I have few conversations about it. To wit, your response, labeling me a "Racist" and "frustrated asshole". I find it an interesting that I boil much "Racism" down to snap decisions based on quickly assembled criteria, much like your labeling of me... having never met me.

I know you're probably thinking more about "Why that Paul-doh is an asshole" right now, instead of your own "racist-like decision making" processes. Too bad. I find the whole sphere of racist-like decision making common to many people in many disciplines. Tim Toes trades stocks, and runs thousands of individual data points through an algorithm to "figure out what to do, if anything". BendBB posts the 5,000+ listings of Bend properties for sale at the end of each month. The human mind can't grasp at every one of these things, there's too much. So we "Summarize". There are thousands and millions of "HOUSES". But when I say "House", are you trapped in some sort of primal fugue unable to form any sort of mental image, because you've seen too many "HOUSES"? No. You just have this abstract house-like image stored away in your brain.

It's a short hop from SUMMARY to ABSTRACTION to COMMONALITY to... RACISM. See, racism existed before I was born... I know, hard to believe. It's been around for eons. Why? See, I find it interesting that the human race (not just straight, white male Americans) is "racist". It is natural & it's been around FOREVER. Why? And more interesting, that we are trying to selectively "SUBDUE" it. It has clearly served the human race, at some point, to discriminate based on skin color because racial discrimination is ubiquitous throughout time & todays population.

I like stuff that challenges conventional wisdom.

"The Merits of Racism" is a book (properly done... that is SCIENTIFICALLY) I would read.

"Yet Another 1,001 Reasons White Guys Suck", is less interesting.

But, like I said, I can't WIN this one. You have SNAPPED to your decision regarding me being whatever, and you're entitled to it. Good call. I'm not here to change your mind on that, clearly seems impossible. But maybe SOMEONE is interested, and for just ONE SECOND will question their own ingrained beliefs about something they haven't ever even thought of questioning. Check out this line of reasoning (it really pisses off my liberal friends):

1) I'm a liberal
2) I'm against racism
3) I'm against religious witchcraft, and for the scientific method
4) I believe Darwinism is the only possible explanation for human evolution
5) The human race survived & thrived by adopting species-propagating traits that were passed on in our genetic code
6) The human organism embodies intelligence & genetic information that has ensured our collective survival

Racism is pervasive in the human species. Why are we subduing it? Is it possible that a belief so ingrained (and so vile to many) is actually Darwinian in nature, and has led to our collective survival?

I don't know. Bringing this full circle, I may actually write a post on my blog about why the principles of bigotry can make you a better RE investor. Abhorrent? Maybe. But quickly summarizing information about situations about which you know almost nothing, seems to be an important component to human survival. Maybe discrimination is what kept humanoids from breeding with Neanderthals way back when. They died out, humanoids did not. Equating successful real estate investing with bigotry is actually FAR MORE INTERESTING a subject to me that another mindless RE bashing rant. I've got BendBust for that, God bless that lunatic.

I'm NOT trying to convince you of anything. Just throwing it out there. I think it's INTERESTING, nothing more. It's not an argument I can "win", hell, it's hardly an argument that can even be talked about in this country anymore without hellfire & retribution. And like the Bend RE Bust Argument, that's too bad.


Damn, I cycled back through my browser History to get his comment, but it's gone.

Anonymous said...

I don't see gentrification in Bend, ...

If you don't see gentrification in Bend it's because you're blind. Gentrification is happening in many older neighborhoods as the gentry move into houses that were previously occupied by folks with less money and they fix up the houses or replace them with new ones. Open your eyes.

In PDX people ride bikes to commute, in Bend people ride bikes to exercise and recreate. Therefore everything in PDX is practical, and all in Bend is work or idle rich entertainment. People in PDX choose not to drive a car for environmental reasons. In Bend people drive their car like they would any in california suburb, e.g. every where they go.

What a crock! People in Portland ride bikes for the same reasons people in Bend ride bikes -- transportation and recreation. There are fewer recreational bike opportunities in Portland because of the crush of cars, but you'll see exercise bicyclists on Marine Drive, Leif Erickson, etc. People in Portland drive their cars substantially more than people in Bend because many of them need to commute across the city for jobs. Portland has serious traffic jams. It's much easier to walk and bike to shopping, schools, parks and downtown in Bend.

Anonymous said...

The bus wars. With the new 1/2 Million dollar bus system to shuttle hotel guests from the airport to bend hotels, mt-b, and sunriver. Its a good time to read about the last bus purchase.
*
City mechanic inspected buses, called them 'junk’
City attorney tells 2 Bend employees not to talk to the media
By Peter Sachs / The Bulletin
Published: September 08. 2007 5:00AM PST

A city of Bend mechanic who inspected six used buses in Southern California last summer labeled them “all junk” and tried to back out of the purchase, according to a memo.

But the city bought the buses and used them as the backbone of its new transit system anyway. They soon started breaking down, requiring tens of thousands of dollars in repairs, and are no longer in regular use.

The Bulletin obtained the memo Friday following a public records request. The memo was written by diesel mechanic Dave Pierce, a city employee.

It shows that some city officials knew the buses had serious maintenance issues even before they got to Bend. Several months after the launch of Bend Area Transit on Sept. 27, 2006, myriad problems with the six ElDorado Transmark buses began to surface publicly .

“The significance is that the city had the right to reject the buses at the time Dave Pierce made his inspection,” city attorney Jim Forbes said.
The memo

A memo written by a city diesel mechanic, who inspected the six used buses being purchased for Bend Area Transit, shows that he found a host of problems with them and did not think they were worth buying. The mechanic inspected the buses before they were delivered to Bend, which indicates that some officials knew there were problems with them before they were put to use.
“All buses in very poor shape with numerous repairs of all kinds”
“If it were up to me I would not buy the buses. She said why not? I said because they were a piece of junk”
“I told him the buses were all junk, very corroded underneath”
“I was never told I had the authority to say yes or no on purchasing the buses”

But Pierce didn’t reject them because “I was never told I had the authority to say yes or no on purchasing the buses ,” the memo states.

The Bend City Council approved buying the buses in late June 2006 after little discussion. Pierce inspected them within a matter of weeks before they were delivered to the city . This February, after months of maintenance woes, the city sued Transit Sales International, the bus reseller.

Pierce traveled to Riverside, Calif., in late July 2006 to inspect the buses at TSI’s bus lot. The record of an inspection of the buses, which is dated Aug. 2, 2006, listed dozens of problems.

It is unclear exactly when Pierce wrote the memo. The top of the memo reads “Date — end of August or 1st of Sep.” Forbes said it was written after the city received the buses but before November 2006. The buses were in Bend at least by Aug. 31, 2006, when a Bulletin photo showed officials riding in one on a test run .

Pierce’s two-page handwritten note starts out saying, “All buses in very poor shape with numerous repairs of all kinds.”

Pierce wrote in the memo that he tried to tell a TSI representative “if it were up to me I would not buy the buses.” But the employee told him that the buses had already been bought and painted, and therefore it was too late to back out.

“This is a case of a long series of falsehoods that were told to the city by TSI and what they told Dave Pierce is yet another falsehood,” Forbes said.

Upon his return to Bend, Pierce wrote, he received a call at home from “Glenn,” an apparent reference to Glenn Crawford, a maintenance supervisor in the city’s Public Works Department. Pierce described the problems, including widespread corrosion on the bus undercarriages due to road salt.

Crawford thought that Public Works Director Ken Fuller should be informed of Pierce’s findings, the memo suggested.

“(Crawford) asked if Ken Fuller could call me at home to talk to me, I said sure,” the memo states. “But Ken never called.”

Pierce was not at work Friday and could not be reached for comment . Fuller and Crawford both declined to discuss the memo because city attorney Forbes told them not to comment.

Bend Area Transit Manager Heather Ornelas did not return repeated calls seeking comment Friday. City Manager Andy Anderson was on vacation and unavailable for comment, his assistant said.

A string of problems

Currently, all six of the buses are out of service. Three have serious issues that are unlikely ever to be fixed, officials said last month. The other three buses have air conditioners that are too weak for Bend’s summer heat.

For weeks, BAT has been running its fixed routes using smaller buses, many of which the city had used for its Dial-A-Ride service. The city purchased two brand-new, smaller buses this summer that are also being used on the fixed-route system.

The troubled history of Bend’s blue buses started in early 2006 . Following a winter directive from the City Council to get a bus system up and running by September 2006, city officials found the six buses in a used bus lot in Southern California.

The Utah Transit Authority in Salt Lake City used the buses for nine years before mothballing them because of recurring maintenance issues. In late 2005, UTA sold the buses to TSI for less than $1,800 each.

On June 21, 2006 , the City Council unanimously agreed to spend about $222,000 on buying the fleet and having it delivered to Bend. At the end of July, the city sent Pierce to inspect the buses, and they were in Bend by the end of August. Eighty percent of the cost of the buses was paid for with a federal grant.

Fixed-route service started on Sept. 27, 2006, with more than 1,000 people riding the buses on the first day. City officials have predicted that the system will have served at least 250,000 riders by the time its one-year anniversary rolls around this month.

In December, officials conceded that they were having more maintenance issues than expected with the buses. City Purchasing Manager Bob Griffith told The Bulletin at that time that the mechanic had been told he “didn’t have any choice but to accept” the buses after inspecting them. Griffith would not comment in December on whether Pierce found any maintenance issues with the buses.

In fact, the buses had plenty of problems.

One page of the Aug. 2 inspection report shows 33 different concerns. The city was only able to provide one page of the roughly 20-page report Friday because it is not organized in one location, Forbes said.

That one page includes itemized notations on the six buses from seemingly minor concerns like “left wiper arm erratic” to more serious issues like “exhaust flex pipe lying on coolant,” “exhaust leak next to coolant hose” and “hole in floor and ceiling.”

On Feb. 9, the city sued TSI over the sale of the buses.

The $254,000 suit also provided details into the city’s claim that someone had tampered with the odometers on the buses. When TSI bought the buses from UTA, the suit claimed, their mileage varied from between about 286,000 miles and roughly 348,000 miles. But when the buses got to Bend, one odometer was 60,000 miles below true mileage and another was 40,000 miles lower than its true mileage . Put another way, the actual mileage on the buses was 33 percent higher than what the city had initially been told last summer when it was looking into the buses.

On Thursday, the city filed a motion seeking a settlement conference, which would bring both sides to the table with a judge to hash out an agreement without a trial.

Councilors react

On the day the city sued TSI earlier this year, officials convened a press conference, blasting the bus company.

Then-City Councilor John Hummel raged that the city had been “victimized by criminals and corrupt business people,” The Bulletin reported at the time.

“Transit Sales International ripped the taxpayers of Bend off and this city and this City Council is going to do everything in our power to make sure that the taxpayers of Bend are made whole,” said Hummel, who has since left the council.

But councilors did not learn until recently about Pierce’s memo. It sparked mixed reactions among some of them Friday.

Councilor Bill Friedman has ardently defended the purchase of the buses, even in light of their maintenance issues. Though he said he had heard about the contents of the memo, Friedman said he had not read it. He could not recall how long he had known about the memo.

“We have provided a huge service,” Friedman said. “Having those buses here made that program begin and that program has been an enormous help to the residents of the community.”

But Councilor Chris Telfer, who publicly questioned buying used buses more than a year ago, said she was “appalled” after learning about the memo earlier this week. She said she had not read a copy of it.

“I think we did a bad job of due diligence and I don’t think our actions are defensible ,” she said.

She said that the memo is giving her added motivation to push for internal audits of how the city’s staff functions.

“I’ve been harping for internal audits for five years now and I’ve just been getting stonewalled all along,” Telfer said. “This just makes we want to get a little bit more aggressive in requesting some sort of internal audits.”

But Friedman put the bulk of the blame squarely on TSI.

“Maybe they made the wrong choice in buses at the staff level,” Friedman said. “It is clear that there was a difference of opinion, and our opinion is that we were more or less bait-and-switched.”

A History of Bus Troubles

1996: The Utah Transit Authority buys six new ElDorado Transmark buses for service in the Salt Lake City area.

2005: UTA retires the buses from service earlier than usual because of serious recurring maintenance problems.

Fall 2005: UTA sells the buses to Transit Sales International, in Riverside, Calif., for about $1,800 each.

Spring 2006: Bend officials find the six Transmark buses at TSI’s facility.

June 2006: Bend Transit Manager Heather Ornelas views the Transmark buses while on a business trip in Southern California.

June 21, 2006: A presentation to the Bend City Council shows that the city looked at buses from two transit districts in Oregon, a Portland bus sales company and TSI. The total cost of the six Transmark buses from TSI, including delivery and $45,000 in new parts, was to be about $222,000. The purchase of the Transmark buses was unanimously approved.

Late July 2006: City diesel mechanic Dave Pierce inspects the buses in Riverside. He described them as “all junk” in a memo but was told the city had to purchase them because they were already repainted.

Sept. 27, 2006: The city launches Bend Area Transit, its first fixed-route system . More than 1,000 people ride the buses in the first day.

Dec. 15: The Bulletin reports that the city had amassed $71,000 in maintenance expenses on the six buses. Records obtained by The Bulletin show several odometer readings tens of thousands of miles off between when the buses left Salt Lake City and when they were sold to Bend.

Feb. 9: The city sues TSI, claiming the company defrauded it of $256,000 and that someone had tampered with the bus odometers.

March: One of the six buses is retired by the city after major engine failure.

May: A second blue bus is taken out of service permanently over another problem.

August: A third blue bus has a tire blowout during training, damaging part of the side of the bus and taking it out of service permanently.

Aug. 28: City officials admit that the three remaining functional buses are out of service, citing summer temperatures and weak air conditioning systems. It uses smaller buses to keep the system running.

Sept. 6: The city moves to settle its lawsuit against TSI.

Anonymous said...

East siders should like this MORE COMMERCIAL space.
....................
What's going up?
By David Fisher / The Bulletin
Published: September 08. 2007 5:00AM PST

What:

Baney Hotel Group new headquarters

Where:

Dalton Street and U.S. Highway 20, east Bend

Owner:

Baney Hotel Group

General Contractor:

Degree Builders and Contractors, Redmond

Architect:

Scott Steele Associates

Leasing agents:

Peter Lowes or Bob Smith, Lowes Commercial Properties, 312-2113

A new headquarters building for Bend hotel chain owner Baney Hotel Group, and possibly for one other tenant, is going up on Highway 20 just east of 27th Street in east Bend.

Baney Corp plans to occupy the top floor, or about 10,000 square feet, of the new building once its ready for occupancy in March 2008, Lowes Commercial Properties broker Bob Smith said. Lowes is close to sewing up a lease with another major tenant for the entire 10,000-square-foot ground floor, Smith said. But if that falls through, space is expected to lease for around $1.75 a square foot per month.

Baney Hotel Group currently operates 17 hotels in Oregon, California, Idaho and Washington. It’s currently building the new 56-room Oxford Hotel on Minnesota Avenue and Lava Street in downtown Bend. That building is expected to be finished by fall of next year.

Anonymous said...

, I may actually write a post on my blog about why the principles of bigotry can make you a better RE investor. Abhorrent? Maybe.
*
100% of ALL purchase of property in BEND oregon is white flight.

It is calis running away to an all white place in the desert. Gated communitys.

People who have bought RE in the last five years in BEND are 100% racist nazi white wunderkinds.

Thus its important to mark all of central oregon, .e.g sisters, bend, with swastikas.

Anonymous said...

What a crock! People in Portland ride bikes for the same reasons people in Bend ride bikes -- transportation and recreation.
*
People don't ride bikes in Bend, tourists ride bikes in Bend.

Bend has no people. Bend only has suckers lured in by OUTSIDE-MAG, paid for by taxpayer aka PR-FIRM-DVA, lured to buy time-shares and condos.

Mt-B only exists to sell real-estate, ALL the golf courses only exist to sell real-estate.

The 1/2 Billion tourist dollars that come in july/august are why there are so many bike shops in Bend.

NOBODY in Bend commutes by bike, yet in Hawthorne, sellwood, mississippi, brooklyn many people don't own a fucking car. Lastly, I'm NOT talking about beaverton, that is FUCKING bend.

Anonymous said...

I have long discussed racism here I'm hated because I love the mexican. I'm hated because love the black man and his music.

I hate white-niggers, I hate white house-niggers, e.g. realtors, mtg brokers, ...

All property acquisition in Bend is about white flight from cali, so racism is very important to discuss in Bend.

Bend is Sand Point, Idaho, where every retarded realtor and kin are kings. People come to Bend the same reason people leave LA for Sand Point. They come to get away from color. Everyone that has come to bend during the last five years is a NAZISM WUNDERKIND.

People HATE the truth. I remember a few years ago in PDX when there was a black mayor. He said something that I really felt to be true about the PNW. He said "I feel more comfortable in the south. There they'll tell you to your face if they don't like niggers. In the PNW they'll smile and act nice, but never have you over for dinner."

Note Chief Moose is married to a beautiful white woman, and he frequently said he felt more comfortable going out with her in the south, than in the PNW. Today of course is back east.

Chief Moose a black man with a PHD, a straight shooter knows the PNW, and he got the hell out. Because he felt it was a bastion of hypocritical racism.

bendbutt said...

Bend is NATIONAL-SOCIALISM, e.g. NAZISM.

Where the government controls all, the only difference is the nazis had the trains running. The folks that run bend, can't even get a bus.

During the DUBYA years ALL government is beyond the LAW, today city-council in bend has secret meetings in violation of state open-meeting law, and refuses to keep records of such secret meeting, again in violation of law. Of course during the DUBYA years this has been systemic, e.g. selective law enforcement. Bush is a Nazi, Prescott BUSH supported Hitler and enable him along with Henry Ford, and Hearst Papers. Ford published the "protocols", 100's of 1,000's of copy's all over europe to demonize jews. BUSH was the finance man, Ford distribution, and Hearst PR&Marketing.

Today we live in the NEW-WORLD-ORDER. DUBYA folks have been moving to BEND like flys on shit during the last 5+ years.

It is NO wonder that Bend is completely out of control, because it is a mirror image of the cheney/bush whitehouse.

Bend is like Argentina, it is a POST WWII nazi paradise.

The fact that bend is a racist haven, and the sand-point idaho of Oregon, should never be forgotten by any student of the RE bubble.

bendbutt said...

People HATE the truth. I remember a few years ago in PDX when there was a black mayor.
*
I meant black police chief.

dartagnan said...

Buying houses principally as investments makes no sense for most people. Few of us have the time and the skills to buy fixer-uppers, fix 'em and flip 'em.

My wife and I have owned five different houses in four states over the past 38 years. We have never thought of them in terms of investments; we liked them, the price was right, so we bought them and lived in them. And I think that as a result of doing so we have had a more pleasant life, even if our net worth might have been a bit bigger if we had lived in cheap dumpy apartments and stuck the mortgage money in the stock market. (Of course those who believe the sole purpose of life is to accumulate money will disagree.)

That said, we sold every one of our first four houses at a substantial profit and expect to do the same with the present one when the RE slump is over, which eventually it will be.

dartagnan said...

IHTBYB: "It's 5,006sf, and priced at $1.195MM, down from $1.5MM. Frankly, I can't understand why it hasn't sold."

I can -- Saddleback is not a fashionable neighborhood. People looking to spend $1M-plus on a home are not going to buy in Saddleback.

Remember it's better to own the cheapest house in an expensive neighborhood than the most expensive house in a cheap neighborhood.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Remember it's better to own the cheapest house in an expensive neighborhood than the most expensive house in a cheap neighborhood.

Yup. But actually they are building some pretty decent comparable shacks there. Nice ones. Might help this place in the future. Saddleback is gentrifying slowly.

Anonymous said...

Saddleback is gentrifying slowly.

That's impossible. Bendbust says there's no gentrification in Bend. ;-)

bendbutt said...

Saddleback is gentrifying slowly.

That's impossible. Bendbust says there's no gentrification in Bend. ;-)
*
What bend-butt said was that gentrification is different than condo-sale driven speculation.

You can only have gentrification and an established community that has gone/boom bust, and recovered by youth, and then re-claimed by the old. There is NONE of this in Bend, this is what I have said.

In Bend the young can claim nothing, because out of state REIT's buy all that is NOT tied down, and thus we have a city that is owned and controlled by out of towner's.

GentryFuckation said...

Gentrification cannot occur in a area of $1M homes.

Gentrification is like Missisipi in NOPO ( north portland ), where the place went to hell, and the blacks moved in, and then it got worse and white trash moved, and it hit bottom. Then all of a sudden it had the best food, and music in town, and then the yuppy's started slowly buying, and ...

From bottom $15K for a home, to now $300K+ this is gentrification.

A place must be established, crash to rock bottom and have a great poor art class create a paradise that draws the yuppies ( now old folks with money in ).

There is NO place like this in BEND there is NO good food in Bend, there is NO good music in Bend, have you been to the DOMINO room? What a shit-hole, people literally pissing on the wall in the main area. Throwing up,...

Go to Mississipi and see what gentrification does, today its six blocks of bars, food, music, all first class.

Five years ago it was meth-alley.

There is NO gentrification in Bend, all is new, all is owned on speculation, and all will soon become a ghost town.

Yes, if a Bend house drops to $15k, then maybe artists will move in, but this will not happen, what will happen is the suburb homes will drop to $50k, but NOBODY wants to be in BUMFUCK.

The old mill homes will NOT drop to the price to attract the art-poor, thus there will be NO long term draw to bend for gentrification.

Bend will continue to be a little desert town with desperate realtors enticing suckers with condos.

Anonymous said...

What bend-butt said was that gentrification is different than condo-sale driven speculation.

Bendbust, can't you even remember what you wrote a few minutes ago? Here it is again for your edification:

But in Bend its NOT gentrification.

and

I don't see gentrification in Bend, but I see it all over in PDX.

Open your eyes man, gentrification is all over Bend. The close-in westside, which used to be young skiers and boarders and bohemians, is gentrifying before our very eyes. Downtown is already gentrified.

Anonymous said...

Portland is the trendy place right now, certainly not Bend. That's why there are bohemians living 10 to a house there as you say. Everyone in Cali in their 20's and 30's talks about moving to Portland "can still afford a house and might even get a job". Bend is by the wayside where it always has been. Portland's trendiness will not last, it will gentrify and then young people will plan their escape from it as they do now from Cali. Bend will never be a prime destination because there is no money except what you bring with you. That's just fine by me. I moved to bend with my little stash saved from a career in the rat race, bought an ordinary house in a non-gated community and live low. If I wanted all that trendy crap I would have moved to PDX.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

People HATE the truth. I remember a few years ago in PDX when there was a black mayor.
*
I meant black police chief.


Understandable confusion. They all look the same, right?

Anonymous said...

Am I a racist? I'm white and most white people drive me crazy (especially entitled white women). Give me Asians or Indians any day.

Anonymous said...

Am I a racist? I'm white and most white people drive me crazy

Do you drive yourself crazy?

Go to the Body Worlds exhibit at OMSI sometime. You can't tell what color the people were.

Anonymous said...

Open your eyes man, gentrification is all over Bend.

[ houston, we have a defn problem. gentrification requires collapse, then discovery, then buyout/pushout of those that rediscovered - none of this ever took place in bend]

The close-in westside, which used to be young skiers and boarders and bohemians,

[ your talking a long fucking time ago, and these homes were sold to speculators ]

is gentrifying before our very eyes. Downtown is already gentrified.

[ downtown is-was sold to out of town REITS who are replacing the super-burrito with condo/golf sales, this is NOT gentrification, this is tourism ]

I have KEEP writing about this because you DONT GET IT, gentrification is about things being cool, and overtaken by the OLD, there is NOTHING coll about bend, its just a cheap cotton-candy two-bit condo hustlers town, NOBODY cool is going to move to bend, and thus it will NOT become gentrified.

Anonymous said...

Gentrification requires an established neighborhood, and diversification.

Let's take NWXC it is new, and shiftless, has no history no community and is for the fake-rich. It will collapse, and perhaps in 10 year become a place for the poor, then it may be discovered, and the bohemians cook, and do art, and then it becomes the coolest area of bend, and then the wealthy old would move-in in say 30 years, this would be an example of gentrification.

This however is NOT going to happen in BEND, because gentrification NEVER happens in SUBURBS, never has never will.

BY YOU old farts defn the simple existence of old farts make something gentrified, it does NOT, it requires an old neighborhood to go through the full life cycle, and then the old farts with money to come back in and drive the poor out.

The poor never did OWN in bend, and probably never will.

Today what you have in Bend is a tourism economy, and NO rich old person wants to live in a tourist town, because it isn't cool.

Sorry to shit on your parade guys but bend is a shitty little town, and OUR elected officials PROVE IT.

Anonymous said...

I don't see gentrification in Bend, but I see it all over in PDX.

Open your eyes man, gentrification is all over Bend.

*

Weekend homes own by people in PDX on the westside of BEND is NOT gentrification.

A second home is not an example, Bend has no history, Bend has no culture, Bend has NO art, Bend has NO artists, Bend is just BIG fucking walmart for calis to drive around in,

Bend is just a place for realtors, and mtg brokers to hustle suckers. This town will never evolve unless it hits utter collapse and is invaded by artistic youth who invigorate the town with music, food, and art. Right NOW this is NOT the way bend is going,,

Right now bend is going towards, condo-sales, time-share sales, .... and more of the same. Ergo, it will only attract MORE UGLY americans, such as yourselves.

Anonymous said...

Gotta hand it to you bendbust, you're a lot like George W. Bush -- you have an impressive ability to stay on message, even when your message is total BS.

bendbutt said...

The message is NOT BS, the message is pure and simple Bend is just a fucking little desert town, where the tax-payers unknown to themselves have signed on to the most expensive PR firm in the world to market worthless desert land to outsiders as paradise.

If gentrification were just the incidence of old, then leisure world would be gentrified, but you cannot gentrify something that was born to be inhabited by the dead.

Gentrification requires an established community, of diversity, something Bend hasn't had for 20+ years.

I'm a Geophysical Scientist. I'm an expert in petroleum. It takes time, pressure, and source material to produce oil. Likewise here in Bend they say "build and they'll come" ... What will come? Suckers. ...

In order to build a community it takes time like oil, you need time, pressure, and initial carbon materials. You cannot make oil in a short time, you cannot create a community in a short time.

Bend is ONE big Lie, so successful that even those who perpetuate the lie believe it themselves.

For instance even today bend is down -50% on the ASK and stuff is still not selling pray tell why? Because its a shitty little desert town with NO culture. Look at PDX to date down -10% at best, and things are still selling, people want to live in PDX.

Bend is where people in PDX buy when they're seasonally sick of the rain. The Cali's buying bend was a one time deal, now calis are MORE broke than even the fake rich of Bend.

On target? With this group time has shown, you must tell them, tell them what you told them, and tell them again, and then on the 151'th iteration they usually get it. Like I have said all along, I have been involved in Oregon politics for 40+ years, and thus I know that it takes time to introduce new ideas to the mass of largess.

Sure at one time Bend had a community, but during the most recent gold-rush, all was sold, and now carpet baggers hold the paper, and the keys to the city. Thus there is NO community in Bend, there is no basis for long term gentrification, becuase there is no nieghborhoods, no people, only non-placement-bound parasitic losers, to quote Hollern.

Anonymous said...

One of the edification issues here in this forum, is of course education.

Like the other day the royal BEM, agreed that Priny had NO yuppy factor, and ditto'd the fact that it's SILL-PLATE value would return to $30k.

This is the point I'm trying to make of Bend, Let it be said, and I'm trying to tell you folks that BEND isnt' cool anymore. Yes, in the day of the early 80's bend was a cool place to come from PDX, and perhaps in the day of the early 90's it was still cool

But the Bend of today is FUCKED, the hustlers, pimps, bitches, whores, and cunts that run Bend, have created a town in their OWN image, and ALL the marketing and PR from DVA in the world doesn't change the fact that Bend is NO longer cool.

Thus, there will be NO gentrification as I have defined, yes perhaps in 20+ years, if everyone leaves, then perhaps some rainbow people may take over west-bend, or nwxc, and call it their own, and perhaps they'll create a new ecotopia, and then in time, that will draw gentrification. That said, its NOT likely to happen, because everyone that's cool, knows that bend isn't cool, and that takes a long time to turn around. ALL the money in the world and CONDO-HO jibe, and DVA, ... and taxpayer money will NOT make bend cool.

All the events marketed by the dumb bitch that runs the source weekly will not make Bend cool, because bend isn't cool, bend is a pathetic loser shit-hole.

Anonymous said...

The message is NOT BS, the message is pure and simple Bend is just a fucking little desert town, where the tax-payers unknown to themselves have signed on to the most expensive PR firm in the world to market worthless desert land to outsiders as paradise.

Yep, just like George W. Bush, you've made up your mind and you're not going to change it even if Laura and Barney are the only ones who believe you.

I'm a Geophysical Scientist. I'm an expert in petroleum. It takes time, pressure, and source material to produce oil. Likewise here in Bend they say "build and they'll come" ... What will come? Suckers. ...

For sure dude, that's deep insight!

For instance even today bend is down -50% on the ASK and stuff is still not selling pray tell why?

More BS. Asking prices are down a little bit but nowhere near 50%. Did you pull that number out of your favorite orifice?

Anonymous said...

People are talking on here as if gentrification was a good thing. It's not. And infestation by bohemians does not a paradise make. You are talking about houses filled with pot smoking slackers working on their "artistic" careers, selling granola and diddling on guitars. That's fun, for a while when you are young but I wouldn't call it the roots of culture. There are places and people like that all over.

No place I've ever been is cool if you ask me. All places are a mixed bag. There are cool people everywhere though, even in totally uncool places. Once a town is considered "cool" pretentiousness has already killed it. Go figure.

dr. Strangelove said...

Gotta hand it to you bendbust, you're a lot like George W. Bush -- you have an impressive ability to stay on message, even when your message is total B
*
DUBYA changes his message every week, last week it was 'stay the course', this week its wait for 'betray-us'.

DUBYA's grandfather enabled and brought HITLER to power, DUBYA and his family inherited HITLERS "New World Order", that were actually written by Ford in the 20's.

All is going according to plan.

bendbutthead said...

time, pressure, and source material to produce oil. Likewise here in Bend they say "build and they'll come" ... What will come? Suckers. ...

For sure dude, that's deep insight!
*

The point and I know its hard here, is Brooks cannot throw together over-night a whore-house called NWXC, and call it a community,and just because 2 or 3 blue-hairs move in thats NOT gentrification.

Me thinks there are too many realtors on this board today.

Again I'll try it again, OIL takes millions of years you begin with plant/animal life, and then add pressure and time, ... A community takes generations you must have familys, homes, jobs, time, and societal pressure. This is the basis of civilization.

Bend is a mirage, bought and paid for by taxpayers dollars (DVA) thrown together overnight, its NOT a community. There is NO gentrification, becuase all the old hoods were sold to speculators who don't even live here, and all the new hoods are owned by speculators that don't even live here. Downtown Bend is just a strip-mall owned by National Reits to whore condo's and time-shares.

A cheap little tourist town is NOT cool, cool people will never come to Bend. Once Bend collapses in price, and becomes ignored over the years people will settle and build a community, people who too you smug racist assholes that currently run Bend, will consider gypsy's.

The gypsy's will bring food, music, and soul to Bend. That in time will bring REAL PEOPLE who want to live, and not just get rich quick. Later older people with money will come to be part of the fun and culture, this is what 'gentrification' is all about.

Today Bend is just big cars, big tits, golf courses, and red-robin. Nobody and I mean NOBODY thinks this is cool. Thus BEND is fucked for at least 20+ years. It will take 5 years for the assholes to move-on, and then another 5 years for the gypsy's to move-in, most likely the gypsy's will be mexicans, who will make bend colorful and interesting. Then eventually the mexicans will move on and white trash will rebuild bend. Most likely the Asians will have bought MOST of bend on the cheap as if Measure 49 passes the whole idea is that pre 1972 M37 rights can be sold to foreigners. Thus the Chinese by that time will be running Bend City Hall, making us wish for these times.

pedrobend said...

You are talking about houses filled with pot smoking slackers working on their "artistic" careers, selling granola and diddling on guitars. That's fun, for a while when you are young but I wouldn't call it the roots of culture. There are places and people like that all over. - asshole

*

Dear Asshole,

All I ever said is that cool places have "music, food, culture, ...",

Your dream place of pot, puke, filth, is your dream vision of cool. Note mine, I'll give an example "New Orleans", in the middle of no-where, down in a backwards state, but the blacks with french influenced created the coolest place in the country, which of course has gone to shit in the recent years with crime. All community's are alive and go in cycles,

If you think 'diddlin on guitars' is music, then your an idiot. If you think granola is food, then your an idiot.

In your world there are two worlds the Granola people and the Red-Robin people. I'll concur with you on one point most of the granola people have moved out of Bend.

Like I have said most likely the next generation of gypsy's to descend on Bend will be Mexicans, and they don't eat granola, diddle, slack, or 'hang-out'; they work and love their familys, something that lard-ass get-rich-quick gringos could spend some time studying.

Anonymous said...

Ok, guys lets get back to Real-Estate. Note, below that "Everybody with a pulse bought got a loan", just like we have been talking about Bend since Feb07.

*

Which Came First: California Or Subprime?
Ruthie Ackerman, 09.06.07, 9:12 PM ET



The rate of mortgages going into foreclosure hit a record in the second quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday, but it took pains to say that the numbers were skewed by four large states, and that outside of them, the situation is improving.

Foreclosure starts increased significantly in California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona, the MBA said. “Were it not for the increases in foreclosure starts in those four states, we would have seen a nationwide drop in the rate of foreclosure filings,” said Doug Duncan, the MBA’s chief economist.

The rate of mortgages entering foreclosure in the second quarter was 0.65% on a seasonally adjusted basis -- the highest in the history of the survey. It was a seven basis point jump from the first quarter, which was the previous record rate, and up 22 basis points from one year ago.

The percentage of residential mortgage holders who were behind on their payments but not yet in foreclosure stood at 5.12%, up 28 basis points from the first quarter of 2007 and 73 basis points from one year ago.

Duncan says that the formerly booming housing markets in California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona opened the door to investor loans, or loans to buyers who do not plan on living in the houses. But as the housing bubble burst and housing prices fell, these speculators have abandoned their mortgages, driving up foreclosure rates.

Subprime adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) are the core of the delinquency problem. California has 17% of subprime ARMs in the country and over 19% of foreclosures on subprime ARMs.

“What is not clear, however, is whether subprime ARM loans are causing the problems for California or whether California is causing the problems for subprime loans,” Duncan said. “Therefore, the problems in these states will continue, and they will continue to drive the national numbers, but they do not represent a national problem.”

The midwestern states of Michigan and Ohio have been particularly hard hit. In Ohio, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due, or are foreclosing, are double the national average. However, Duncan said they “have shown signs of leveling off, albeit at a high level.”

Zach Schiller, the author of a report on foreclosures in the state for the nonprofit research group Policy Matters Ohio, said that there were 79,072 new foreclosure filings in the state in 2006, up 23.6% from 2005 when there were 63,996 foreclosures.

Duncan lumps Ohio in with Michigan, which has “escalating” problems, in order to show that economic problems driven by job losses in manufacturing and the auto industry in the Midwest states have contributed to worse delinquency and foreclosure rates. The nearby states of Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee and Pennsylvania were also included in his analysis.

Jim Rokakis, the treasurer in Cuyahoga County, Ohio, asked why, if Ohio and Michigan’s economies were bad, did mortgage lenders continue to pump dollars into the states? “Are the economic conditions in Ohio worse than other parts of the country?” Rokakis asked. “Yes they are. The conditions here were the kindling wood, but the large logs that are now fueling this fire were put there by the mortgage banking industry, the rating agencies, and the issuers -- take your pick.”

Thirty percent of the subprime mortgages in Cleveland have gone bad, Rokakis said.

“There's not a single neighborhood in this city or in the entire region that is immune to this,” Rokakis said. “They were making loans to anyone that had a pulse. They thought this was a party that would go on forever--well, party’s over.”

Mark Wiseman, head of a foreclosure prevention program in Cuyahoga County, runs a group of agencies that take calls from people in foreclosure. In August the program took 1,500 calls, whereas the average over the last year was about 300 calls a month.

Anonymous said...

“There's not a single neighborhood in this city or in the entire region that is immune to this,” Rokakis said. “They were making loans to anyone that had a pulse. They thought this was a party that would go on forever--well, party’s over.”

*

Everyone that could BUY, did BUY, and NOW nobody can BUY.

Thus its game-over in Bend, all will collapse. Especially given that Bend is 90% dependent upon cali for ALL incoming purchasers. All DVA marketing paid for by Bend taxpayers has always targeted calis to come and visit, and buy a condo or two.

There will be NO more calis coming to Bend with money.

Anonymous said...

The OldMill to be made into a UoO@bend campus. Of course the trouble is tuition is up, and enrollment is down, and there is no money, but that never stopped anyone.

Lastly, note "Jim Francesconi", this is one of the biggest creeps in Oregon politics. When the BULL quotes him, you know something strange is going on.

Most likely he was the only guy who would give the BULL the time of day, my personal guess is that Francesconi smells blood and thinks he can become MAYOR in the vacuum of incompetence. Please NOTE bend losers that Francisconi is EVIl.

*
Central Oregon on university system’s radar
By Sheila G. Miller / The Bulletin
Published: September 08. 2007 5:00AM PST

The Oregon State Board of Higher Education came to Bend for a meeting Friday and did just what university presidents and faculty had hoped it would do.

The 11-member board approved increased funding for all seven campuses in Oregon, including a big bump for the Oregon State University-Cascades Campus. It also expressed how important Bend is for the future of the state’s higher education.

The added funds will give the college and Central Oregon a chance to position itself for the future.

“We need a chance to get going here,” board member Jim Francesconi said. “This gives us a chance to be successful, but we need this funding to continue for a substantial period of time.”

Oregon’s colleges and universities will receive more than $870 million in funding in the next two years, a 23 percent increase from the 2005- 07 budget cycle, when lawmakers doled out $706.5 million in funds.

OSU-Cascades will receive $8.9 million in the next two years, a 29.6 percent increase from the $6.8 million it received in 2005.

With the increased funding, the campus plans to hire two new professors and a recruitment director, as well as expand its academic offerings.

Of the additional funding that the Oregon University System received, $10 million is earmarked for faculty salary increases, particularly for employees who are in the instruction, research and public service program areas. Another $7.5 million is earmarked for increasing student retention and ensuring that students can get a degree from Oregon universities within a four- to six-year period.

“I think most people are in general agreement (about the budget),” said Jay Kenton, the vice chancellor of finance and administration for the Oregon University System. “Always everyone wants a little bit more, but to do that we’d have to take it away from someone else.”

Francesconi said that despite higher education getting additional funds for the coming two years, he fears that it’s fleeting.

“There’s already talk that (the Legislature) is moving on to transportation and health care,” Francesconi said. “This is really important, but there’s still a long way to go.”

Holding the board meeting in Bend was a signal that the campus is gaining in importance.

“Bend and Portland are two of the most important parts of the state,” he said. “There’s a lot of growth here, and we’re also underserving both areas. The fact that we’re here is a demonstration of our commitment to this area, but we also have work to do to get it right.”

Don Blair, a board member and chief financial officer of Nike, said Central Oregon can be an important part of Oregon’s higher education future.

“This area is fertile ground,” Blair said. “I think OSU-Cascades is different from some of the other regional universities. This place should be a growth investment, while other (regional universities) are seeing a decline.”

Anonymous said...

“That game is over,” Duy said. “To believe that suddenly, skies will clear and we will be back to where we were a year and a half ago is unlikely.”

Six thousand fucking times BUST has said game-over, now even fucking DUY is say game-over. Perhaps its time to buy when this bitch calls a slump.

****
After housing, a few positives
More jobs, and August tourism may set record
By Anna Sowa / The Bulletin
Published: September 09. 2007 5:00AM PST

The Central Oregon economy remains resilient despite the ongoing housing slowdown, according to a recent measure of the region’s business activity. But the growth may not remain strong, economists warn — recent turmoil in the mortgage markets suggests the housing market hasn’t hit bottom.

LAUNCH INTERACTIVE CHART

The Central Oregon Business Index for the second quarter of 2007 rose to 176.9, its second consecutive gain and a 1.1 percent increase from the previous quarter. The previous quarter’s data was revised to reflect changes in nonfarm payroll and lodging estimates and only marginally changed the index.

Still, the index stands 2.5 percent lower than the second quarter of 2006, which means the High Desert is seeing softer economic conditions, said Timothy Duy, director of the Oregon Economic Forum and associate professor at the University of Oregon Department of Economics.

Duy tracks nine economic indicators in Central Oregon’s economy and uses them to create the index, which is an attempt to see where the economy is heading. The index base is set at 100, its level in 1998.

“The problem we face is the same problem we face on a national level,” Duy said of the index. “The housing market is quite weak relative to the recent past, but we also have relatively solid numbers across other parts of the economy.”

The good news: Central Oregon’s labor market continues to grow, initial unemployment claims are down, new business filings are up, airport activity is up and lodging revenue rose to its level in the second quarter of 2006.

“The concern looking forward is that the housing slowdown will have this lagged effect on other parts of the economy,” he said. “That will be the big risk in the next six months.”

The lagging effect could bring all the indicators down, he said, adding that the sky is not falling — yet.

“Perhaps later,” Duy said of a possible economic recession, “but we’re not seeing it quite yet.”

Labor market positive in the second quarter

The number of help-wanted ads in The Bulletin increased after falling for the past three quarters, according to the index, which means businesses are growing and adding more staff. And new business filings increased slightly over the first quarter.

Employers added 600 workers to nonfarm payrolls, a steady increase over past quarters, according to the index. Additionally, initial unemployment claims dropped, suggesting a decreased pace of layoffs during the quarter.

While the employment numbers haven’t slipped, employment economists warn that the market is feeling the effects of the changing housing industry.

“We’re not seeing negative numbers from it, but we are definitely seeing slowed (job) growth,” said Steve Williams, regional economist for the Oregon Employment Department in Bend.

In Central Oregon, job growth has increased more than 6 percent the past three years, Williams said, but slowed to 2.5 percent this year versus last year.

“I think that growth has slowed mostly because of housing,” he said.

The manufacturing sector is weak in Central Oregon, Williams added, and 50 percent of that manufacturing is from wood products, which are tied to the housing market.

Still, the region’s population growth continues to bring new jobs to the area.

“We’re still the largest-growing area in the state, we’re just not experiencing the boom anymore,” Williams said. “The bottom line is, if people continue to move here, we will continue to see more (job) growth.”

A stronger tourism industry

Expanded commercial air service, stable gas prices and a variety of local summer events combined to make the tourism industry strong for the first half of 2007, according to the index and tourism officials.

Bend lodging revenue gained in the second quarter, from $1.4 million in the first quarter to more than $1.5 million in the second quarter, according to the index.

Alana Audette, president and CEO of the Central Oregon Visitors Association, said that although she hasn’t seen the final numbers, August is expected to be a record-breaking month from a volume and revenue standpoint.

June was relatively flat in growth compared with last year, Audette said, as was the beginning of July. Part of that was because the Fourth of July fell on a Wednesday, making it harder for people to travel for a long weekend.

But overall, events like the Family Motor Coach Association convention and RV Rally in Redmond and The Jeld-Wen Tradition in Sunriver brought more visitors to the area.

“Something that also gave us a boost was that while gas prices peaked earlier in the year, they leveled off once we were into the summer season,” Audette said. “I was surprised to see that people were committed to their travel plans.”

At the Redmond Airport, boardings and exits increased by around 5,000 in the second quarter, the index report found.

Audette says that is key to the tourism industry, bringing more overnight visitors who tend to spend more money than day visitors. She cited additions in flights to Las Vegas, Los Angeles and Salt Lake City.

“There’s no question about it,” she said. “The increased commercial air service has been an enormous boost to the visitor industry.”

… And then there’s the housing market

With six of the nine indicators pulling the business index up last quarter, the remaining three negative indicators were concentrated in the housing market — following state and national trends.

Housing units sold in Central Oregon gave up gains made in the first quarter, falling to a monthly average of 266, the lowest pace of sales since the fourth quarter of 2001, Duy reported.

The number of Deschutes County building permits dropped sharply to a monthly average of 149, a 48 percent decrease from second quarter 2006 and hitting the lowest pace since the first quarter of 1997.

Additionally, Central Oregon median housing days on market climbed marginally, from 142 to 144, an increase of roughly 45 days over the second quarter of 2006.

“Locally, housing hasn’t hit bottom and it won’t for some time,” said Bill Valentine, president of Valentine Ventures, an investment management firm in Bend. “While the cause of the housing bubble has gone away (through excess money creation), it will take time to work off the largess, nationally and locally.”

Valentine noted that Central Oregon is a derivative market, which means the region’s housing market relies on home-equity transfers from other states, notably California.

“So despite all of the oft-repeated attractive features of our area,” he said, “we’re held hostage by the deteriorating housing market in neighboring states, which is time lagged a bit, too.”

The most affluent Bend migrants aren’t as affected by the slumping housing market as others, Williams noted, which is why prices on the most expensive homes have remained strong. The rest of the price ranges, he predicts, will “remain under pressure” until the market works off its excesses and the inventory peaks.

“Remarkably, there’s no sign that we’re near that yet,” he said.

Looking ahead, Valentine says the region will face whether consumption can hold up without the source of much of its funding — home equity extraction — and if spillover effects from the housing recession will leak into other facets of the economy.

Duy is guarded.

“Overall, I’ve been impressed that the rest of our indicators have held up pretty well despite the housing slowdown,” Duy said. “But I’ve been cautious that another shoe will drop in the next six months.”

One thing is for certain — any housing bubble that existed is gone.

“That game is over,” Duy said. “To believe that suddenly, skies will clear and we will be back to where we were a year and a half ago is unlikely.”

dartagnan said...

"BY YOU old farts defn the simple existence of old farts make something gentrified, it does NOT, it requires an old neighborhood to go through the full life cycle, and then the old farts with money to come back in and drive the poor out."

Speaking as an old fart, it's not old farts who gentrify neighborhoods; it's young professionals and artsy types (20s and 30s) looking for affordable housing with urban amenities and an urban vibe. What happened to Bend was not gentrification -- it was an invasion of rich and think-they're-rich middle-aged and older poseurs looking for a "small-town atmosphere" and, in the process, destroying that atmosphere.

Anonymous said...

Seems like everyone has their own definition of gentrification. Here's the first one that comes up on Google.

"The rehabilitation of a deteriorated neighborhood by new residents who are wealthier than the long-time residents. This can cause an increase in housing prices and lead to displacement of the long-time residents."

Sounds like parts of Bend to me.

Anonymous said...

"If you aren't priced well and perfectly perfect, you ain't going to sell in this market."

I have a home in the High Lakes school district. it is the LOWEST priced 3 bedroom home on the Westside. It is clean, well maintained, repainted inside and out, on a huge corner lot looking out at 700K + homes, has had a pre-inspection with all minor problems fixed, and still, no traffic. The house shows like new, no personal effects anywhere (well, maybe my office) and still, there is little interest. Fortunately for me, I have a fixed rate mortgage, low monthly mortgage, and I can stay in Bend indefinitely, BUT I DON'T WANT TO! I have one foot out the door and have business and personal interests elsewhere. What is a seller to do who is offering a good price on a good house, but there is no one to buy. I recently saw a listing in Colorado where the buyer was offering the following incentives(Buyer Incentive 1990 Jeep with purchase of house, or carpet allowance, or closing cost assistance up to $6,000.00) and still I wonder if he'll get any bites.

So again, I ask you, what is a buyer like me to do? I ain't giving away my house, I don't have to move, and yet I don't want to stay.

Here's the listing. If anyone wants to pimp the listing, give feedback or buy it, let me know!

I'll give you my cat.

http://www.2979Merlot.com

Anonymous said...

Here's the listing. If anyone wants to pimp the listing, give feedback or buy it, let me know!

I'll give you my cat.

http://www.2979Merlot.com


Feedback: At $200 per square foot it's overpriced. Sorry, but that's honest feedback.

Anonymous said...

I have to sell my house, I have two sons and a daughter. You can have them all for a year, I'll deliver them as yours for what you want, they're well trained to please, including my wife. Just buy my house.

http://bbp.juggcrew.com/m/btaw/58/?t=15&nats=NDgyNDozOjE4,0,0,0,58955

Anonymous said...

It is clean, well maintained, repainted inside and out, on a huge corner lot looking out at 700K + homes, has had a pre-inspection with all minor problems fixed, and still, no traffic.

*

Have your tried laying out lines of cocaine in the bathroom?

Worked for me.

Calis need drugs, and connections. One year all the PCP, Cocaine, and Heroin your you and one spouse. Works.

Midnight Express Real Estate

BendOverBackwards said...

Here's the listing: If anyone wants to pimp the listing, give feedback or buy it, let me know!

I'll give you my cat.

http://www.2979Merlot.com

Feedback: At $200 per square foot it's overpriced. Sorry, but that's honest feedback.

----------------------------

My response:

I am not sure my daughter would approve of me laying out lines in the bathroom for potential buyers, although I could have a broker's open and try it out on them while she's in school. It might give the realtors the jolt they need (coffee just isn't cutting it anymore) and the right kind of incentive to show my house to qualified buyers (if there are any out there)

Thanks for the honest feedback. I am a NOT a seller who is stuck in last year's (or even last spring's) pricing and like I indicated, there are greener pastures for me and my family outside of Bend, and I want to get there sooner than later.

I am dropping the price on the listing today. It'll go in fresh tomorrow.

Someone is going to get a great house at a good price and I can live with that.

http://www.2979Merlot.com

If you click the Buy It Now button and put the money in my Paypal account before the end of the day, you can have both my cats, and I'll babysit your kids for a whole weekend. As long as I can use duct tape if they start annoying me. :-)

Anonymous said...

CLIK