Monday, September 17, 2007

Bend = Popeil Pocket Fisherman

Sometimes, in fact most of the time, I actually want to write about things I see in the previous weeks comments. Stuff from BEM, Duncan, and "Timothy" (although sometimes I wonder who that is), yup even BendBust (with too many aliases to remember), and the True Believers. But it seems I always get something that sticks in my craw in the meantime & I end up writing about that. So I determined that I would do that this week & not be carried away by other things... But first:

Remember the "Popeil Pocket Fisherman"? Oh, yes.

"The biggest fishing invention since the hook...and still only $19.95!"

It's actually a marginal product as any sentient being would know, who knows ANYTHING about fishing hardware. I mean, it's a dinky little fishing pole made with crap components. So why did it succeed?

Well, first, in the grand scheme of things, it didn't succeed wildly. Almost EVERYONE has heard of it, but I don't know anyone who actually owns one. And it never succeeded wildly because it is, right on the face of it, a marginal non-spectacular product. You can see that right away, without having to buy one. It's a little fishing pole, with a short little snub pole.

Now Freudian remarks aside, a short fishing pole is really functionally inferior to a longer one. It's only real benefit is it allows for more compact storage. But for that benefit you pay quite a bit more than you'd pay for a regular fishing rod. I bought a no-name rod & reel a year or two ago for about $7. So how on Earth does the Popeil Pocket Fisherman, an inferior and far higher cost alternative, even succeed?

Three ways: Over-the-top marketing, a tiny niche market, and buyer ignorance.

As I said, almost everyone has heard of the Popeil Pocket Fisherman. THAT is just good, pervasive & what admittedly is effective marketing. If you market something, ANYTHING, hard enough, you'll almost always find someone to buy it, if it's even a country mile within reasonable. If you look at Ron Popeils' company, Ronco, it is effectively a marketing front for a series of what are strange, novelty, and middling quality items. But they are pervasively marketed in "Crazy Eddie" style with a "willing and eager" (and totally fake) audience, in a style that is apparently effective enough that I remember Ronco commercials even decades after having not seen one.

And there does exist a very, very small market for compact fishing gear. For some people, I can't imagine who as I am neither a big fisherman nor constrained by space consideration to that extent, the Popeil Pocket Fisherman is a great alternative.

Finally, strange, substandard novelty products capitalize on buyer ignorance. If you know NOTHING about fishing gear, and Ronco has somehow convinced you of your potential need for a fishing rod, and they are convincing you with their "audience" that is stunned & amazed by their crappy offering, then you might just pay $20 for something worth, at most $7, just because you don't know any better. In fact, buyer ignorance paired with almost hypnotic marketing are the only possible way that products like the Popeil Pocket Fisherman even exist.

Maybe I'm just weird that way, but I immediately see many parallels between the Popeil Pocket Fisherman and Bend. First, there does exist a market for what Bend offers. Hell, I live here and when I first got here, the natural geography, scenery, small town feel, and opportunities to actually make a living here were very appealing. Unfortunately, some of that appeal is being dissipated by Prop 37, massive in-fill development, pervasive tract housing, almost totally irrational home pricing, hostile and incompetent city government, increasing percentage of people immigrating here who do not share my values (don't litter, don't be an asshole, clean up your dogshit, etc) , and so on. But still, Bend is nice, just much less so than 5 years ago.

So there does exist a "market" for what Bend has to offer, despite my own personal observations that what it does have to offer is declining in quantity and quality. As Popeil Pocket Fisherman demonstrates, if you market a middling product hard enough, it will sell to someone. But it's getting harder, much harder. Ye Olde BendBubble2 had some visitors of an ilk it hasn't had in awhile: Yup, People Who Compare Bend to The Highest Price Housing On Earth To Prove That Bend Is Dirt Cheap. Here's a comment after posting 10 over-the-top CA markets with higher medians than Bend.

All with median prices more than 2x Bend's median price. Oregon in general and Bend in particular haven't caught up with California and Washington prices, not by a longshot.

Of course, logically shutting down people like this has been done by me & others with such regularity & ease over the past year or two, that I practically do it in my sleep. Remember the "Yugo"? Yeah, the Yugo was The Cheapest car made -- in dollars. By these people similar logical estimation, the Yugo was, de facto, The Best Car Ever Made because it was the cheapest. Geez. Of course the Yugo was a disaster, because the car itself was a disaster.

Now, I don't want to suggest "Bend" is a "Yugo". It's not. A Yugo-like product is doomed to failure, no matter how cheap it is. Burns... that's getting closer. I actually think Burns is getting better, but that's another story. Bend, as a product in marketable form, is The Popeil Pocket Fisherman. Middling quality with some marginal features that do appeal to a fairly small number of "buyers". That doesn't mean "worthless" by any means. After all Popeil sold Ronco in August 2005 for $55 million, a pretty decent sum. But compared to the Ronco core competence of marketing novelty items, Ronco's market share in it's collective markets has never been more than 1%. It takes advantage primarily of buyer ignorance to capture a tiny share of a huge market.

That's Bend. A wildly over-marketed destination of middle of the road quality. Marketing is ALL WE HAVE. This place practically worships it, because like Ronco, it's essentially Bend's Core Competence. That's why when we receive widespread recognition, it's value is computed to the penny:

"It (Outside Magazine) reaches a demographic that most other advertising efforts don't reach because of a limited budget," Yax said. "Most of our advertising efforts don't go nationally. This is how we reach the national travel audience." The three-quarter-page article in Outside would have cost $71,720 as an advertisement, Yax said.

This is from a Summer article in the Bulletin, "More praise heaped on Bend". This is just strange. I lived in places that received this sort of "free publicity", and never was there an article computing it's "marketing value" -- right down to the penny -- in the local paper. This is what we do, it's what this town is: We are Ronco.

But there's the rub: Ronco ultimately has to abandon each of it's products in a serial fashion: The Veg-O-matic, GLH9 Hair-in-a-can, Mr Microphone ("Hey, good looking, I'll be back to pick you up later. Broadcast your voice on any FM radio!!!". Seriously, that was the ad tagline....), The Cap Snaffler - "Snaffles caps off any size jug, bottle, or jar… and it really, really works."

OK, each ultimately blows up because once you've sold the .01% of the population that actually needs it, and then you've fleeced the .99% that is so mentally decrepit they fall for your marketing or they are just ignorant, the market just declines from there. Your only real solution is to wait a generation for a new batch of suckers. But even they will have some sort of memory passed on that will lessen the marketing blitz effect. Wildly overmarketing the same crappy product is a DOA business plan after the first time. THAT is also Bend. We've just had our first, last and ONLY dose of success. But like the Popeil Pocket Fisherman, that's it. We're done. THAT particular gambit will NEVER work again.

But you know what? We will waste MILLIONS for years, if not DECADES, trying to Keep The Dream Alive. Like "Uncle Rico" on Napolean Dynamite who just kept reliving his glory year, 1983, Bend will end up a pathetic has-been if we keep flogging our one-single glory period.

Like BendBust, I am damn tired of repeating this, but this place needs a REAL ECONOMY. Not housekeeping, retail clerks, pizza delivery, or even construction. Real, sustained business. Here's an acid test for how REAL a local economy is: Do you see more "sales" of businesses or straight "closures"? An economy with "real" businesses will have an overwhelming percentage of "sales". There is "something" there of value that is salable. A "project" economy will have straight closures. There was nothing there of durable value in the first place, so it could never really be sold. That's why construction companies rarely "sell". They are "projects", not real "annuity-like" companies. You buy a general contractor, you've bought hot air.

Bend has an overwhelming number of totally "fake" businesses. They're not real businesses. A one-man law firm, accountant, or doctor office is NOT a business. It's a job. That's what Bends economy is, which is also why a predominant number of businesses here simply close their doors instead of sell. There's nothing there.

That's what we are. There's not much here. And if someone of relatively nominal intelligence were to closely inspect "Bend" as a product they would either buy or not, they would quickly come to the conclusion that we are OVERPRICED. Not totally worthless, and not the Ferrari of towns, but just somewhere in the middle. But in the Ronco style of over marketing, we have become totally dependent of a business model where we are overpriced with respect to our "fundamental value" by double, triple, or even quadruple. And man, without those "hot air dollars" we would fold.

That's what we are: Ronco marketing of Uncle Rico. In 1986. The Glory Years are Over. But dumb Uncle Rico will unfortunately NEVER FORGET 1983.

Moving on..... From Bend Economy Man:

I would never mess with perfection, Paul, but I think sometime you should do a "bust-o-meter" on Central Oregon grand schemes falling victim to the RE bust

"Never mess with perfection"? You shut down your blog! Start it up again!

OK, I'm all better now. Anywho, regarding the Implode-O-meter, I had a similar thought. Maybe put it in the sidebar. BEM named The Shire, some of the vacant eyesore lots downtown, and other potential "busts". And I guarantee you there will be more. I think. The funding for "facility based building" from housing to Redmond Waterpark took a turn for the worse in the past few weeks. Mercato is a bust either way, it's just a question of whether the Crocodile Dundee Bank of Tasmania will pull the funding before it's completed.

I think they will. Bankers are like Wildebeests, they move in herds. Stick together, and the chances of a leopard pulling you down are relatively low. Go out where you stand alone, and you will die. THAT is where much of Central Oregon projects seem to stand. They are in some instances almost pathologically weird (The Shire? Redmond Waterpark? Only in a bubble...), and most residential projects are being built into a market that has basically collapsed.

To BEM's point, there will be some Implosion Candidates, but there will also be many that are just abandoned. I saw in craigslist a 24 lot dev for townhomes where the thing has gone "Wholesale". Can't sell the lots retail, so let's try to bail on this thing wholesale... at 95% of retail cost. THIS is what I think will constitute the bulk of "Implosions". Of course these wholesale liquidations won't sell. Right here on BendBubble2's RSS feed, I saw some developer trying to bail on some lots wholesale, and what's funny is that after computing for Realtor fees and points and everything else, anyone who actually bought at his ask & actually got what he said the lots were worth retail, WOULD LOSE MONEY! Awesome!

"I have made a grievous financial mistake and paid WAY TOO MUCH for a craptacular couple of acres that I can never sell. But if you act today, you can take over my place, and what's better, I can GUARANTEE YOU'LL LOSE MONEY! It's Win-Win!

Oh wait, no. It's Win-Lose!

Oh, no. Actually, it's Lose-Lose!"

THIS will be the legacy of development deals done from today on, for as far as the eye can see. Lose-Lose. Anyone who's bought recently will lose. If you buy from them, YOU will lose. That's the reason they're selling for Gods sake.

Implode-O-meter, good idea.

From Duncan --

Wednesday, September 12, 2007


So income has gone up double, but housing prices have increased by 5 times? Not to worry, rich people will buy all the houses.


I'm still amazed and astounded by the reactions I get in my store from visitors. The comment, "It's happening were I come from, too." The comment, "We're thinking about moving here."


And then, when I question their knowledge of the local conditions, the realization that they don't have a friggen clue!


Perhaps when it comes to the crunch, they come to their senses. But I have a sinking feeling that they are moving here willy nilly, thinking they are going to get a comparable job to the one they left, and sitting pretty on a nest egg of equity.


So the question becomes. How long does it take for them to lose their nest egg?


Bend just keeps sucking up all that cash. And the longer the newcomers are oblivious, the longer high-end retail keeps opening. (Not one, but two bookstores opening in Redmond?)


Maybe this is just another facet of the cubic-zirconia that is Bend. We've marketed the hell out of this place, we've actually realized some ridiculous price gains and reeled in some particularly rich suckers... er, uh buyers. But INCOME. Yeah, that pesky measure of ECONOMIC REALITY, has remained almost pathologically depressed.

What's GREAT, is this place seems to want this illusion to persist, AT ALL COSTS. Screw income, screw it that no one who is actually here can survive. Just reel in suckers to keep cost inflation as high as possible for a small number of producers, Bends Elite. Reminds me of somewhere:

Under the leadership of current president Robert Mugabe the economy of Zimbabwe declined from one of the strongest in Africa to one of the weakest.

The downward spiral of the economy has been attributed mainly to mismanagement and corruption of the Mugabe regime and the eviction of more than 4,000 white farmers in the controversial land redistribution of 2000.

Inflation rose from an annual rate of 32% in 1998 to an official estimated high of 7,634.8% in August 2007,[39] a state of hyperinflation. The IMF predicted inflation will reach 6,430% by the end of 2008. Estimates from private sector economists estimate inflation at about four times the official figures.

In August 2006 a new revalued Zimbabwean dollar was introduced, equal to 1000 old Zimbabwean dollars. The exchange rate fell from 24 old Zimbabwean dollars per U.S. dollar (USD) in 1998 to 250,000 old or 250 new Zimbabwean dollars per USD at the official rate,[42] and an estimated 120,000,000 old or 120,000 revalued Zimbabwean dollars per US dollar on the parallel market[43], in June 2007.

Mugabe points to foreign governments and alleged "sabotage" as the cause of this, as well as the country's 80%[44] formal unemployment rate. Critics of Mugabe's administration, including the majority of the international community, blame Mugabe's controversial program which sought to seize land from white commercial farmers.

The economic meltdown and repressive political measures in Zimbabwe has led to a flood of refugees into neighboring countries. An estimated 3,4 million Zimbabweans — a quarter of the population — had fled abroad by mid 2007.[50] Some 3 million of these have gone to South Africa.[51]

Ah yes, good old Zimbabwe. A place where you look to see how disastrous insular governmental corruption can decimate an economy. See any parallels to Bend?

  • Robert Mugabe = Bend City Council
  • Mugabe's Supposed Economic Sabotage = Let's Hire A PR Marketing Firm Cuz We F'd Up Juniper Ridge
  • 120,000,000 Zimbabwe dollars = Bend Median Home Price
  • Economic Meltdown & Refugees = Bends Future

Of course, like Mugabe, Bend City Council feels they have carte blanche to wreck this town just as long as they can continue to peddle economic influence to a microscopic portion of the population, the Bend RE juggernaut. Outcome? Bends Popeil Pocket Fisherman sellers have so far succeeded in bilking some real idiots out of their life savings, but that market is by definition small & shrinking away to ZERO.

I have no doubt that like Mugabe, Bend City Council will continue to bang this little fiefdom up the corn chute for all it's worth, and the end result will be economic disaster & a massive flight of REFUGEES out of Bend when the true "hot air" nature of it's primary product is revealed.

Finally, from BendBust:

If you can go down 25% do it, becuase this time next year will be -50%.

There are NO buyers, there is NO money, the only thing you can do is market the thing yourself, keep your realtor, everyday promote the house on Craigs, and everywhere you can, take out an AD of your own every sunday in the Oregonian, and promote the home. This way you'll catch that one guy with money, but YOU must lower the price, and work your ass off NOW, if you keep dragging your ass, you will be giving the house away next year.

WHAT! "Keep your realtor"? Are you PRO-BEND REAL ESTATE, BendBust?

OK, Buster, don't blow an O-ring. Just fuckin' with ya. But he brings up a good point, the money is GONE. I'm not sure I agree with his percentages, but when you start looking at the very peculiar & unique situation that is Bend RE (extraordinary RE economic concentration, double or triple the "normal" levels in regular towns, the extraordinary appreciation, and coupled with that a huge correlation of local incomes to RE prices), it becomes hard if not impossible to estimate the impact of the current credit contagion on a place like Bend.

The Credit Contagion may be the only, or the first in a long line of "surprises", that have long been talked about here, as post hoc reasons for a massive and almost unbelievable collapse in Bend RE prices some years from now. As Timmy has said (I think. Maybe I just thought it.), when stocks implode, the reasons for the implosion are only widely known & disseminated once the disaster is total & complete. We won't really know what the catalysts are in their full entirety until home prices here have imploded.

Cynics will say, "Then HOW DO YOU KNOW IT'LL HAPPEN!". Just because I don't know the exact reasons for a bubble bursting, doesn't mean I can't predict that it's very likely one will. The Ultimate Reason ALWAYS ends up being "The Whole Ponzi Scheme Collapsed Of It's Own Weight". That's why all Bubbles burst. There were "exterior" reasons for Bends Bubble, that were largely beyond our control; the national housing bubble, easy money, and a penchant for North-migrating equity locusts to move here. But there are several reasons that are ALL OUR FAULT, and we not only did nothing to mitigate their inflating effect, we have and ARE STILL plowing everything we've got into them. In summary:

Bend is a Pocket Popeil Fisherman (a middling town), being wildly overmarketed by Robert Mugabe (Bend City Council) for the single and sole reason of enriching a small elite number influencers (Bend RE developers). The outcome is easy to predict as day follows night:

Economic destruction and massive refugee exodus.

This is Bends fate. Like the Pocket Fisherman, we had our shot. Like Uncle Rico, we are past our prime. And like Robert Mugabe, we will be driven into economic catastrophe because our government is corrupt & incompetent. We could have taken our one-shot windfall & invested wisely & built a Real Town with Real Jobs. But no. We're beating a dead horse, and all indications show that The Powers That Be will beat this horse to bloody mush until this town is a shadow of it's former self. Bends Bubble collapse and economic destruction are a foregone conclusion because of this.

It's NOT a prediction and I don't "want" it to happen, it's just brutally obvious common sense.

269 comments:

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IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And I forgot to write about this... But if you scroll down "Picto-Plummet", you can see in that first pic, way on the left there, there is a "gold starburst" attached to the Eagle's Landing sign. There are actually 2 starbursts, 1 posts the new price of $299,900, down from $425K, and the other is "floor plans from 1,825/sf", or something.

So Eagle's Landing developers have obviously taken the logical First Step in trying to move inventory: Cut Price.

Duh, this is totally rational. Happens all the time in all business.

But look at these MLS numbers, 2710773 and 2710778 , you see that the other shoe has dropped. Yup, they have actually moved to building homes SMALLER. That first one is $280,950! It's also 1,515sf, well below the smallest planned home of 1,825sf. Funny, but on a cost per square foot basis, it's almost the most expensive floor plan in Eagle's Landing. So while builders have first straight up cut margins by lowering price, they've now resorted to the "smaller portions" strategy of artificial price dropping, which is actually a stealth price increase.

Now, pair this fact with the following:

Cities levy fees called system development charges, or SDCs, on all new construction to help cover the costs of population growth on streets, sewer and water systems, and parks. In Bend, each new single-family home is charged $13,400. Commercial projects are generally charged much more, depending on the amount of traffic they are expected to generate and on the size of their sewer and water connections.

This is from todays Bulletin piece, "Cities weathering housing slowdown. But lower fee revenue could hit some public projects". For each home built in Bend, regardless of size or price, builders pay $13,400 in SDC charges. I can't think of a better recipe for wanting to build McMansions, despite whether there is demand or not for them. If Duncan had to pay a fixed tax on EACH ITEM, no matter it's price, I guaran-damn-tee you that bright and early tomorrow morning there would be none of the cheap stuff.

This fixed cost is an artificial stimulus to building TOO-LARGE homes. This is great in a bubble. In fact, it contributes to it.

But the glory days are over, and when places like Eagles Landing have to resort to selling $280K homes and pay that pesky $13,400 SDC charge, they make a LOT LESS than they do on their top-of-the-line $379,900 mega-shacks.

So we have home prices getting cheaper ($280,950 being the new low in Eagle's Landing, wayyyy down from their initial $425K price when they BOUGHT THE LAND), but perversely getting more expensive ($185/sf vs $144/sf for their top-of-the-line model), and all the while builders probably will begin going broke because the margins on the cheapest homes in their lineups will actually be the only thing they can sell, and they carry the same fixed SDC charges as their McMansions.

Timothy said...

>>Not one, but two bookstores opening in Redmond?

Ooo. I'm a bookstore fetishist. What are they? Biggies? Please say Borders & Powells (or Smith Family). Man, if I knew bookstores were moving into Redmond, I probably would have gone there instead of Bend.

I feel for that new little one in Ray's parking lot on Century. Who makes that kind of location work for a bookstore? I don't think I've seen any shopping center bookstores work. Except maybe for Christian bookstores.

Anonymous said...

The first thing counsel should do is repeal that insane trailer park regulation. The owners of the trailer park should not have to bear the cost of relocating their tennants anymore than an apartment renter.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Just a Reality Update on the "Cook It Yourself" fad that was written about in the Bulletin back in May:

Dinner on the fly
Four dinner-assembly businesses help keep busy Bend families fed



Saturation?

Six months after Dream Dinners opened its doors on the west side, Dinners Ready! debuted to the north in the Cascade Village Shopping Center.

In February, Dinners Done Right, based at Borden's Corner on the east side, began taking customers.

At the end of March, Entrees Made Easy ventured into Bend River Promenade.

All four are within a six-mile radius of each other.

"I think there is room for everyone, but four is about saturation for this community," said Entrees Made Easy co-owner Lloyd Brogan, who also owns all the licensing rights to franchise the company in Oregon. "Is this the business that's just the flavor of the month? Is this real, or is it the flash in the pan? I don't know the answer - and it can be scary, but high risk, high reward."

Brogan says he takes some solace in the fact that the business model is relatively new, and he feels he and his business partner and co-owner, Charles Owen, got in on the ground floor. Brogan's wife, Sally, also a partner, works in the store as a hostess.

Both Brogan and Owen left the high-tech industry in the Silicon Valley.

"We pulled the rip cord and came here," Brogan said with a laugh. "We hope to open 25 to 30 more of these stores (Entrees Made Easy) in various cities throughout the state within a four- to five-year period."

Despite being the latest dinner-assembly franchise in town, Brogan is optimistic about the growth potential.

Dinners Ready! owner Debby Bever did plenty of due diligence before opening and liked what she found.

"The difference with a restaurant is they don't know what people are going to order ... so they have to have everything," said Bever, holding up an online customer order form. "With this type of business, I usually know at least a day ahead what people want to make, or pick up for dinner, so we never have to over-order, so there's no waste. Also, at a restaurant, you may have 20 waiters just standing around if it's slow."

"The interview process is rigorous," Bever said. "They are pretty picky and they turn people down if they don't think the city is the right place for their franchise. They like to see a city with a population of about 100,000. Bend is 80,000, but I figured with the outlying areas where we pull from, Redmond, Sisters, we're easily over 100,000."



So, right, as usual "We Are Gods Chosen People and all, so competition applies to everyone else, not us, so we'll succeed, despite indications even from the franchisor demographic requirements that clearly show that Bend has reached a state of HYPER-SATURATION, we will succeed."

But if you pay a visit to BizBuySell.com, a nationwide listing of businesses for sale, you find the following:

Leading Meal Assembly Franchise in Beautiful Bend, Oregon

Exciting opportunity to own one of the fastest-growing franchises in the nation, located in one of the most beautiful locations imaginable.

The meal assembly industry has grown to an estimated $300 million in annual sales in the past 5 years because it fills a critical need for increasingly busy families. If you're looking for a business with tremendous growth potential, the opportunity to help busy families, and the chance to make a difference in your local community, this is it. This is a well established and immaculate operation located in stunning Bend, Oregon. It has a large protected territory, experienced and well-trained staff, a database of over 1,800 customers, and a reputation for superb customer service and active community involvement. No need to waste time finding a location, negotiating a lease, designing space and getting permits, hiring and managing a contractor, purchasing equipment, training employees, finding suppliers, and the myriad of other activities required to start a new business. Purchase this turn-key operation for less than the cost of a new franchise, and step into an immediately profitable business.

Central Oregon is one of the fastest-growing areas in the country, and Bend has been named in many national surveys as one of the top cities to live and work. The area has outstanding facilities and amenities, like quality museums, theatre, art galleries and shopping. Enjoy the unparalleled outdoor activities, from rock climbing, canoeing, kayaking and white-water rafting; to hiking, backpacking, horseback riding and mountain biking; to skiing and snowboarding, and the outstanding network of trails and wilderness areas.


Gotta love the obligatory crap at the end: We're selling a LIFESTYLE here, not a real business, cuz LIFESTYLE is all we really have. 80% of all businesses here are technically insolvent!

They only want $237,500 folks! And you get the proven track record of ONE YEAR of solid business experience of losing money every single second the doors were open. That's why the gross & net are not listed... The gross is pathetic & the losses are unbelievable. They need to "talk to you" first (ie "Reel in a sucker" to have a snowballs chance of selling this dog.) WOW.

(And what's funny: This dead-dog loser is worth a lot more than many other "businesses" around here. Most "businesses" in Bend aren't really a business; they're "projects", and the minute those who initiated them are gone, they simply vanish. Check BizBuySell listings for Oregon: You'll find a "Custom Home Builder Green Homes" who grossed $1.1MM who netted $130K, and is "only" asking $400K. Wow, sounds reasonable. If it were "real" it would be. But check the employee count:

1

It's some dude who has general-ed a few houses, either 1 or 2 from the revenue. OK, that's a job, not a business. That's worth precisely & exactly $0. Yet that makes up the VAST bulk of Cent OR "thriving businesses". Seriously, $130K is THRIVING. It's just totally non-salable, it's just a job. It's just some dude.
)

Of course, these meal prep places will experience the same closure rate of Duncan's competitors: 75%. There may be 2 survivors, and that's if it really takes off. It's DOOMED. It was DOOMED back in May when the Bulletin wrote the article.

But no, we've got LIFESTYLE to sell here, suckers to reel in, and all that. Popeil Pocket Fisherman: No substance, just bullshit.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And just read that business description: Have you ever seen so little written about the business, and so much about the "area amenities"?

The meal assembly industry has grown to an estimated $300 million in annual sales in the past 5 years because it fills a critical need for increasingly busy families.

OK, this is just stupid filler.

If you're looking for a business with tremendous growth potential, the opportunity to help busy families, and the chance to make a difference in your local community, this is it.

"Tremendous growth potential" = We are asking too much because we're selling a dream.
"Make a difference in your local community" = Equity locusts from Cali fancy themselves liberal do-gooders.
"help busy families" = We're retarded

This is a well established and immaculate operation located in stunning Bend, Oregon.

"well-established" = we've survived one year, and have lost our collective 401K's
"immaculate operation" = Not a single customer has sullied the facility since we opened.

It has a large protected territory, experienced and well-trained staff, a database of over 1,800 customers, and a reputation for superb customer service and active community involvement.

"large protected territory" = No one else stupid enough for 500 sq miles to flush away $500K
"database of 1,800 customers" = We paid for a White pages download.
"reputation for ... community involvement" = Not a single starving homeless person was fed, but we've mailed in 2,000,000 PR pieces to the Bulletin & kissed the ass of every staffer we could find.

No need to waste time finding a location, negotiating a lease, designing space and getting permits, hiring and managing a contractor, purchasing equipment, training employees, finding suppliers, and the myriad of other activities required to start a new business.

"No need to waste time..." = Holy fuckin' shit, have we wasted a lot of time, money & effort on this DOA piece of crap. Upside? You just give us money, and you'll be on the fast-track to losing every nickel you've ever made."

Purchase this turn-key operation for less than the cost of a new franchise, and step into an immediately profitable business.

"less than the cost of a new franchise" = We wildly overpaid.
"immediately profitable business" = Once you give us $237,500, is the day this thing made us one cent.


Central Oregon is one of the fastest-growing areas in the country, and Bend has been named in many national surveys as one of the top cities to live and work. The area has outstanding facilities and amenities, like quality museums, theatre, art galleries and shopping. Enjoy the unparalleled outdoor activities, from rock climbing, canoeing, kayaking and white-water rafting; to hiking, backpacking, horseback riding and mountain biking; to skiing and snowboarding, and the outstanding network of trails and wilderness areas.

"We MUST sell this pile of shit to an in-bound equity locust, cuz we do not have a snowballs chance of selling it to anyone already here, cuz they've all been fleeced, and even if they had money, they'd know better than to buy about 90% of the businesses here, most of which lose money constantly, and the remaining 10% are NEVER for sale cuz their owners KNOW they have a Golden Goose, or when the do come up for sale, like most stuff here, it's to see if there exists some mindless sucker who will pay them 10X what it's worth.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, those folks who bought mobile homes can just hook 'em up to the back of their car and move somewhere else, by golly! Who do they think they are?

Anonymous said...

Should it be trailer park owners burden to move them any more than the apartment owners burden to move all my furniture (that won't fit in my car)?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Should it be trailer park owners burden to move them any more than the apartment owners burden to move all my furniture (that won't fit in my car)?

Here's a compromise: Sell those rusted out hulks as firewood and they spilt the proceeds! It's WIN-WIN! And what doesn't sell, just crush & dump on China Hat Rd so homeless buggers can burn it to keep warm.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Here's some interesting stuff from todays Bulletin piece:

Another area that could be affected if the slowdown continues or deepens: building inspections.

The 40 or so employees in the city’s building inspection department are financed entirely through fees charged for construction inspections. Commercial construction has helped pick up some of the slack there, too, Andrews said, but inspection fees still dropped to $3.5 million in the city’s last fiscal year, which ran from July 2006 to July 2007, from $5 million the year before.

The city is budgeting about $5 million in income again this year, Andrews said, partly because it raised inspection fees by more than a third in July, and partly because some new large commercial projects are expected to get under way before the year is out. Meanwhile, the department has delayed filling a dozen open positions, and it has dug into its reserves to keep its people working, Andrews said.


Wow. Really read that. Inspection fees have dropped from $5MM to $3.5MM, or DOWN 30%. BUT they have every confidence it'll pop right back up to $5MM due to INCREASED FEES. Man, there ain't nothing I like better than higher fees.

Of real interest is this: There are 40 inspectors on the payroll, and they planned on adding 12 more, or about 30%. BUT, now those new positions are delayed, and what's worse, THEY HAVE TO DIG INTO RESERVES TO MAKE PAYROLL.

WHAT! I mean, how often do you hear of a company going from plans for a 30% expansion, to not being even able to make payroll? I mean, Holy Crap. Multipy this out to the entire Bend economy, and it is real easy to see that we have not even come close to feeling the full effects of the Bend RE Implosion. My God, the City of Bend can't meet payroll in the building inspection department.

Anonymous said...

"WHAT! I mean, how often do you hear of a company going from plans for a 30% expansion, to not being even able to make payroll? My God, the City of Bend can't meet payroll in the building inspection department."
------------

Well, it isn't their fault. They made up a plan to handle all the growth, and when the growth didn't materialize, what do expect them to do, lay people off? Come on, folks! These are government workers. Government workers don't get laid off... part of that union contract.

Why would you lay off, fire, or cut back, when instead, all you have to do is increase your fees or increase your taxes? What are your customers going to do, go to Redmond or Madras to get their permits processed? They have a monopoly, they DON'T have to provide good service or be competitive, since there ain't no competition.

Instead of managing the department like a normal business, they just keep the employees, and wait for more money from fee / tax increases to make up the difference. Until then, they have more people processing less permits.

Life is good. PERS is better. Don't worry. Be happy.

Anonymous said...

My God, the City of Bend can't meet payroll in the building inspection department.
*

Please them that made this department self financing.

I have seen this coming for over a year, layoff's, the city is finally having to deal with reality.

I hope the citizenry comes forward and reminds all we can do with -50% of staff or less, regarding the fact that biz is down, and its NOT coming back. The good old days will return in Bend for a generation if ever.

Personally I would like to see the SDC marked at $60k, that would solve all the problems. The days of having the city subsidize and/or explicitly enrich developers and builders is over. Pass the actual cost of infrastructure. Part of the problem in the past is that cheap $12k/home SDC actually encouraged building. Now that money isn't available, only those that MUST build will build, and IF THEY LOVE BEND SO FUCKING MUCH, they'll pay the actual cost.

End of Story. Put your fucking money where your mouth is, if you truly believe in Bend. Then support the infrastucture.

Anonymous said...

The WHOLE SDC problem in Bend is that builders are poor snotty nosed spoiled children.

As IHTBYB has elegantly pointed out, any fucking moron could become a builder, as there is NO cost of entrance, and the city actually encouraged the process buying financing development, e.g. by subsidizing cost of infrastructure to the BIG patrons of Bend, every little cheesy 'builder' got into the action.

Even right now the debate rages on about the most recent SDC increase the builders are refusing to pay. What the fuck are they going to do? They can go to Burns. Hell they can go to Christmas Valley or Wagontire.

We always hear that Bend is the land of the rich. Our builders have made a fortune during the recent years in Bend, how come they don't have the cash to pay SDC? They're just going to pass it on anyhow, its not like the process is unique, there is no competition, everyone has to pay the same,

Will a REAL SDC effect building? Probably not, these days ONLY serious building will take place anyway, the speculation is over. Anyone stupid enough to be using good cash in Bend today on SPEC, should be forced to pay actual cost of SDC.

Anonymous said...

http://www.fixjuniperridge.com/

*

The above is a cute site, with a cute quote ... Trouble is Bend is NOT about good ol boyz, that is Redmond and there doing fine, the problem with Bend is that the elected buffoons have allowed out of town-folk to bamboozle them.

City of Bend's Juniper Ridge Master Developer was recently quoted on his thoughts about our city... BEND
"It's like a town in Mississippi in the '50s with this good old boy network, its going to be difficult to get anything done."

- Ray Kuratek, Managing Partner
Juniper Ridge Partners, LLC
The Source May 18, 2006

Anonymous said...

BEND
"It's like a town in Mississippi in the '50s with this good old boy network, its going to be difficult to get anything done."

- Ray Kuratek, Managing Partner

*

The trouble here is that the good old boyz that Kuratek is referring to is the Bend Chamber of Commerce, hardly his competitors @ Juniper-Ridge.

The Bend Chamber of Commerce is a bunch of senior citizens that don't want to see the city sold to out of town pimps in a k-mart suit.

Kuratek railroaded city council to do everything in secret, only in the most recent weeks has the Source and Bulletin mentioned that Kuratek gets $2.5M whether JR gets built or not. This has been reported on this blog a 100 times in the past six months, and is in the July 2006 MOU on Juniper-Ridge, a document that only seen light of day because of the Bend Chamber of Commerce forcing it to be made public.

In effect what Kuratek a failed developer from California is saying here is that Bend Chamber of Commerce is a bunch of 1950's Klu-Klux-Klan guys that run around and night and hang black-folk.

You have to give this guy credit, he takes a malleable and semi-liberal city council and leads them around like fucking dogs on a leash. He convinces them to do everything in secret, otherwise they might get lynched by the KKK.

Bend is Fucked.

Anonymous said...

First let me say that this weeks blog by IHTBYB is excellent, real content, real ideas, and refreshing to see a critical analysis of how Bend got to where it is today, and note PR/MARKETING is still 24/7/365 a primary venue for spending taxpayer dollars in Bend.

***
... Trouble is Bend is NOT about good ol boyz, that is Redmond and there doing fine ...

Like IHTBYB I have been wanting to discuss Redmond. It is the epitome of nepotism. 60% of city hall, 70% of cop shop, 50% of fire, ...

REDMOND is nepotism, they just hire on a police chief from Springfield, OR, whose only job is to reduce nepotism.

That said, they JuniperRidge shit could NEVER happen in Redmond, There is NO way in hell, the elected officials are family, Redmond is a family business, There is NO way in HELL an outside Dandy with a K-Mart suit could do a flim-flam on Redmond. It's impossible.

Today look at Redmond, They are rock solid, they have affordable housing, there tax base is strong, their building permits are generating a ton of cash. Redmond is RAN 100% by people who aren't going any where, by people who love their city.

Bend talks a lot of shit, but BEND is a huckster paradise, its a place where you bring Harvard MBA's in the freshman year to learn the art of the con. Ray Kuratek and Juniper-Ridge are going to be textbook. How a guy can come in to a town with k-mart suit, after getting ran out of cali, literally tarred & feathered. Then he comes to Bend and gets $2.5Million cash for jive talking.

This shit would NEVER happen in Redmond. Redmond doesn't have DVA PR firm running the show, or they don't have to ask them what to say or do every AM. In Redmond one or two phone calls and things are taken care of. In Redmond you have multi-generational familys running the city. It would be impossible for an out of town con-man, to shake-down Redmond.

Then look down at Bend, the best PR that money can buy, the best lawyers that money can buy ( Miller-Nash "Super Lawyer" ), Bend is 100% about MARKETING. Redmond is 100% about working and living.

Now jump to today, and look. Who is looking good? Who will go bankrupt? Who will survive the bubble implosion?

I said this a few days ago, and I'll say it again. Redmond is now going to become the New-York of Central Oregon. Bend is going to become a larger version of its bitch Sister ( Sisters ), a place of false fronts, tourism, and cotton candy.

Let's summarize, why did Redmond BEAT THE SHIT out of BEND?

Because of NEPOTISM. Family cares, family can be stronger than a quick buck, especially if everyone in the family going to get ALL the bucks.

BEND on the other hand, had NO family, the closest thing Bend had to an OLD-GUARD wast the Bend Chamber of Commerce, something that outsiders quickly neutered.

In summary, the future is now clear for all to see. Down in Bend we'll look north and watch Redmond grow and prosper. In Bend we'll count the days until our imminent bankruptcy.

While Rome Burned, they say they fiddled. Certainly while Bend burned they exploited the city with marketing and PR, and more marketing and PR, until the city was broke. Sort of like humpty-dumpty, all the marketing/pr couldn't put bend back together again. Imagine that?

Anonymous said...

nepotism |ˈnepəˌtizəm| noun the practice among those with power or influence of favoring relatives or friends, esp. by giving them jobs. DERIVATIVES nepotist noun nepotistic |ˌnepəˈtistik| adjective ORIGIN mid 17th cent.: from French népotisme, from Italian nepotismo, from nipote ‘nephew’ (with reference to privileges bestowed on the “nephews” of popes, who were in many cases their illegitimate sons).

Thesaurus
nepotism noun hiring my daughter was not nepotism—it was just good business favoritism, preferential treatment, the old boy network, looking after one's own, bias, partiality, partisanship. antonym impartiality.

[ There never was an 'old boy network' per the dictionary use of the world. Thus if Kuratek wanted an old-boy town, he should have hustled Redmond. Had he done that he probably would have wound up hog tied out in the desert. Instead he ( UBS ) targetted a town ran by inept cowardly, dysfunctional liberals.
In a town controlled by a parasitic electorate, what outcome would one expect?

May the best PR firm win the prize, and lead Bend to the road of ruin.

]

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

bendeconomy.informe.com looks down again. pings fine.

Anonymous said...

All informe.com bulletin boards are down this morning. May be due to their on-going server upgrades.

-- bendbb

Anonymous said...

.
.
.

Housing comeback a ways off, industry official says
By David Fisher / The Bulletin
Published: September 17. 2007 5:00AM PST

Bend’s residential real estate market won’t stage a true recovery until typical first-time buyers can afford homes again, the president of one of the largest Central Oregon-based builders told a crowd of investors and business people last week.

Raw land prices are dropping, Hayden Homes President Dennis Murphy said, which will let developers set the stage for less expensive housing going forward.

But prices haven’t dropped enough to entice Hayden — an affordable housing niche builder — back into the marketplace, Murphy said, and, to the extent that Hayden is a barometer for the less-expensive sector of the construction market, that could mean sluggish overall sales are here to stay for awhile.

“This time next year I think we’ll see things get better,” Murphy told about 40 people at an Economic Development for Central Oregon PubTalk Thursday night. “Maybe longer. But it’s going to be a long, cold winter.”


Overall, prices in the Bend market have shown little movement over the summer, even as the backlog of unsold homes has grown.

The median price on homes sold in August stood at $352,000, about where it has been since February, according to Central Oregon Multiple Listing Service numbers tracked by Bratton Appraisal Group’s Mike Caba.

But only 139 homes sold during the month, according to Caba’s data, compared with 196 in August 2006 and 260 in August 2005.

The number of unsold homes on the Bend market has remained stuck at around 1,600 since July — about 15 percent more than last summer’s high-water mark, reached in August 2006. More than half of those listings, 831, were in the $200,000 to $400,000 price range as of last week.

Bend’s situation is hardly unique.

The National Association of Realtors estimated earlier this summer that a potential home buyer in the West with a median household income of $61,961 could afford only about 69 percent of the median priced $358,700 home in the region, given a 6.7 percent interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. In other words, a household with a median income could afford a home price of only $247,500, assuming they paid no more than 25 percent of their total incomes for monthly housing expenses, and they could come up with almost $49,500 in cash for a downpayment.

Bend’s median household income is closer to $58,000, according to the affordable housing agency Housing Works. That would put a family with a median income in range to afford a mortgage of about $190,000, using the NAR’s loan criteria, which means they might be able to swing a house deal of between $190,000 with nothing down to $237,000 with 20 percent down.

Are prices in Bend getting there yet?

Murphy thinks they’re moving in that direction.

Hayden has been selling the same approximately 1,200-square-foot home in south Bend since 2000, Murphy told the PubTalk crowd. Prices on that model rose from around $100,000 in 2000 to $280,000 in 2006. The company sold its last one this year for $215,000.

The Central Oregon Association of Realtors Web site showed 93 single-family homes for sale Sunday for between $175,000 and $250,000 in the Bend-Tumalo-Alfalfa market.

It was possible for Hayden to sell in Bend with dropping prices this year because it bought the land years ago, Murphy said, but going forward, he’s not seeing the kinds of land deals yet that are attractive enough to entice his company to buy more.

Land was selling in Bend for more than $400,000 per acre at the peak of the housing boom, fed by speculator activity that has now left the marketplace, Murphy said. Now he’s getting offers of $275,000 per acre, but he said Hayden likely won’t be interested in Bend again until it can pick up tracts for $200,000 per acre.

With speculators and investors either out of the real estate market altogether or sitting on the sidelines, first- and second-time buyers are critical to getting the housing market back on track, Murphy said, for obvious reasons — without them, move-up buyers can’t sell. And if they can’t sell, they can’t rebuy themselves.

“When that house gets to $175,000, we’ll sell a bunch of them,” Murphy said. “Meanwhile, affordable housing is the only way we’ll make this market grow.”

Redmond-based Hayden Homes, founded by the late Bob Watson in the 1980s, then passed along to Murphy and Watson’s son, Hayden Watson, is currently building in 15 cities in Oregon and Washington state, according to the company’s Web site, including Redmond, Sisters, Umatilla, Walla Walla, Roseburg and Salem. Prices on homes in some of its subdivisions range from $260,000 to $350,000 in Sisters, to $160,000 to $210,000 in Albany.

PubTalk is a monthly program sponsored by EDCO to highlight segments of the local economy, and to bring potential investors together with local and regional entrepreneurs.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

THANKS "Anonymous" for this Hayden piece.

Wow. A builder I actually agree with. Where's this guy been? I can tell you one thing, this sort of talk has NEVER made the Bulletin.

Damn. I am stunned. This guy ACTUALLY UNDERSTANDS lower prices will be good for his business, and HIGH PRICES WILL KILL IT. And.... AND he made the Bulletin.

Man, this may come as close as we ever come to the "sea-change" local media piece I called for last Winter that acknowledges prices are TOO HIGH, EXCESSIVELY HIGH PRICES hurt EVERYONE, and every builder (and everyone in RE) will benefit from LOWER PRICES.

Holy crap.

Damn. Thanks for the copy/paste. Nice.

Timothy said...

I think the sea change is here. The Hayden guy made a terrific speech. Greenspan is saying prices are coming down more than people realize. Slowly, the message is getting out that RE is in big, big trouble.

For years to come.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, when I read the paper this morning I almost feel off my chair and I scared the chit outta my dog. Nice to see some realism hit the market and actually get coverage in the BULL.
Did you guys see that upscale national builder Hovnanian's "20% off sale" (3 days only) this weekend sold 2100 homes. I think we are going to see a lot more of that kind of thing over the next year at least. That will start dropping prices on existing homes rather rudely.
I do agree that this type of Bull article is a "point of recognition" finally admitted - your "sea change".
I wonder it the Hayden guy will receive some nasty phone calls or emails? I'd take a vacation if I were him.

Anonymous said...

Prediction:

We'll finally see the "official" median home price take a big dump the next 6 months, 10% minimum is my guess. Been watching price reductions and sales prices recently, I think we see a drop of over 5% just in next few months (Sep and Oct). Desperate end of summer bagholders who have not sold are going to really try to get out before those long and cold winter months arrive!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

From Dennis Murphy, PRESIDENT OF HAYDEN HOMES:

Bend’s residential real estate market won’t stage a true recovery until typical first-time buyers can afford homes again...

That would put a family with a median income in range to afford a mortgage of about $190,000, using the NAR’s loan criteria, which means they might be able to swing a house deal of between $190,000 with nothing down to $237,000 with 20 percent down.

Land was selling in Bend for more than $400,000 per acre at the peak of the housing boom... he said Hayden likely won’t be interested in Bend again until it can pick up tracts for $200,000 per acre.

...affordable housing is the only way we’ll make this market grow...

“This time next year I think we’ll see things get better... Maybe longer. But it’s going to be a long, cold winter.”


There you have it folks. This guy has basically shut down building operations until land prices drop in half from the top. Local housing is dead until it is AFFORDABLE, something HAYDEN (not Paul-doh) puts at around $190,000.

He actually WANTS home prices to drop (20%, from $215K to $175K), cuz he knows DAMN WELL that he won't sell ANYTHING until prices come DOWN.

Any of you TRUE BELIEVERS paying attention? Any builders ABLE TO READ? Yeah, you might take just 5 SECONDS to read this cuz this guy actually KNOWS WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON.

READ THIS ARTICLE. THEN READ IT AGAIN. Building, and in fact the entire RE industrial complex in Bend is DEAD UNTIL PRICES COME DOWN.

A BEND BUILDER SAID THAT, NOT US EDGE-CASE FREAKS. Yeah, I've only been saying this for about 2 years, but forget that. LISTEN TO ONE OF YOUR OWN. YOU PEOPLE WILL STAY BROKE-ASS BROKE UNTIL PRICES COME DOWN. OK, the Bubble was a dream -- ever higher prices and higher volume ain't gonna happen again till your kids are ready to lose money. The NEXT GENERATION can have a bubble, but we can't... we're done.

REALITY, GET USED TO IT. YOUR FANTASY WORLD WILL NEVER COME BACK. $500K medians? NOT IN OUR LIFETIMES. $200K medians? YES, and with it will be a revival of Bend & Bend RE. $350K medians? THAT'S DEATH. YOU'RE BUSINESS WILL DIE A SLOW DEATH AT THOSE PRICES.

OK, To-Do list:

1) CUT PRICE 20%
2) NO i-Pod docking stations
3) NO fucking mini-go-kart bullshit
4) YARDS
5) Pre-emptive bankruptcy cuz this is all TOO LATE for 95% of you dumbasses.

This land-rush is like a fever: The longer prices stay high, the better the chances that the patient is gonna die. Of course most RE-tyes WANTED it to stay high. Well, it did and now the Golden Goose is damn near dead from stewing in it's own juices. 95% of the current Bend RE employment will be gone in 5 YEARS. YOU KILLED IT. YOU ARE TO BLAME.

Good job, dumbshits.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The Hayden guy made a terrific speech.

Did you see him? Any audience reaction of note?

Anonymous said...

Nice to see there are at least a few smart builders out there (very rare breed!). This guy saw whar was coming and they bailed for now on Bend and will reenter when they get their price. How would you like to be the dumb shits who bought the trap club property - LOL.

Next shoe to drop is a cancellation (or bankruptcy or however they just stop business) of one of the "planned" big destination resorts. Also, we should soon be seeing some big cracks in the commercial end - the "perfect storm" has arrived!

And the beat goes on.....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

We'll finally see the "official" median home price take a big dump the next 6 months, 10% minimum is my guess. Been watching price reductions and sales prices recently, I think we see a drop of over 5% just in next few months (Sep and Oct). Desperate end of summer bagholders who have not sold are going to really try to get out before those long and cold winter months arrive!

Post that over on BendBB, maybe you'll get a burrito out of the deal.

Last Winter I talked about 2007-Q3 being The Public (Media-broadcasted) End of Bend RE. Not really a prediction, just look at the numbers.

Here's my prediction: Q3 will be the relative "worst" for awhile. That $380K median from Sept 2006 will be hard to beat, and that'll make this quarter look about as bad as it gets for awhile. Q4 will be a loser, but less so than this quarter. It'll just be losses, but not near as bad as the losses we'll be looking at for this quarter.

It's AIN'T GOING UP. It's just going to have nominal losses for a long, LONG time.

Anonymous said...

Post that over on BendBB, maybe you'll get a burrito out of the deal.

You know the burrito bet IHTBYB -- you win if the Bend median sale price drops below $300K any month this year, otherwise I win. You've got four more shots at winning, but don't count your chickens yet.

-- bendbb

Anonymous said...

Redmond, 1200 sf-ft homes, $180k, first-time buyers, $50k/yr income means that you can only buy $200k home, and this is the MARKET.

The market no longer exists higher than $200k,

In summary if you own or have +$200K home in Bend your fucked.

*

Hayden has been reading too much Bend Bust.

Anonymous said...

A year ago bend-bust was saying ...

1.) That all that mattered was what people could afford.

2.) That bend income was somewhere between $40-60K, which meant that the average person could only buy a $200k home.

3.) That post collapse of easy money you would have to have 20% down, we're still talking $40K, in a climate of negative savings.

4.) Homes in Bend will vary $160k for a +5 mile out desert 3,000 sq-ft home.

5.) $200k for an inside basic home.

6.) $260k tops for a nice inside near the river home, and NOTE I'm not talking about the new tract shit.

7.) ALL CONDOS will be pretty much worthless. Try $120k, if your lucky, perhaps $180k if an investor can get up $50k down, and carry a $1k loan, and find a $1k/mo renter, I don't think so, these are all to become section-8 housing.


Then there is the SHEVLIN/NWXC shit and ALL its clones +3,000 sq-ft, and NO buyers in the northern hemisphere. Nobody's coming, the stuff all sold for $500k to idiots that BOUGHT UP, and they ALL were speculators counting on it going to a $1M. The stuff now will go down to $240K tops, and thats a BIG maybe, given it was all built to last ten years, my guess is it will all be minus $200k in the years to come. Too far out, and too many renters.

Anonymous said...

REDMOND kicks ass, HAYDEN is from Redmond.

Now BEND is looking at Redmond just like the Pen-Ball Wizard, "How do they do it, what makes them so good"??

Redmond are the straight shooters, HOLY shit The BULL is now quoting Straight Shooters, the days of Kuratek and out of town Hustlers is is OVER, there will be NO more PR&MARKETING. Just old fashion business, ...

A new fucking day in Bend, The SUN is shining, the darkness is over?

What's worse is this REDMOND developer knew when to fold his cards, left the table early, didn't buy over priced shitty desert land. All the people in BEND that played the game are broke, and ALL the outsiders are leaving, that means tomorrow the folks with MONEY will be coming from REDMOND to BUY BEND for pennys on the dollar.

Timothy said...

>>Did you see him? Any audience reaction of note?

My better half was there and was very impressed. His was the only speech she remembered. Pretty much repeated it to me verbatim.

Anonymous said...

Bendites being the barbarians we are...

*

Amenity Locusts or Vultures?

Don't Bend Our Town.

Everyone knows what Bend did itself. Very much like the town that put all its daughters into prostitution, and then once the whole town got Aids asks for community pity from neighboring towns. Bend had a hell of a party for a few years.

Bend is a pariah, and the people will be moving on in droves, the kind of people that were attracted to Bend in the past five years were primarily get-rich-quick locusts, and they'll be heading north, as there is nothing south, e.g. the locusts always move to clean places to pillage.

Like sharks that have tasted blood 1,000's of Bend locust will be heading north looking for towns to secure a KURATEK, aka $2.5M golden-parachute.

The Natives Are Restless--- said...

"The Whole Ponzi Scheme Collapsed Of It's Own Weight." -- I think that sums up the whole situation nicely. Although technically most of what we're seeing isn't due to fraud,(it's more due to greed and/or stupidity)the Ponzi model fits quite well.

Anonymous said...

The shit has hit the fan, now its gets messy as burst bubbles always do. I'll enjoy seeing a lot of the greedy bastards goin down. This was our only hope for slowing down runaway growth.

Anonymous said...

This was our only hope for slowing down runaway growth.

The take-home message of the "Housing comeback a ways off" article is that growth will resume when prices come down. In other words, higher prices like we have now tend to inhibit growth and lower prices enable growth.

It's a catch-22 for local Bendites. Lower prices will make it possible for them to buy houses again, but will probably attract more out-of-staters to move here too.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

t's a catch-22 for local Bendites. Lower prices will make it possible for them to buy houses again, but will probably attract more out-of-staters to move here too.

Yup. That Hayden guy will probably NOT build homes when they actually DO hit $190K medians (inflation adjusted), or even close. The market will have by definition gone completely to hell. "Buying the the bottom"... so, SO much harder than it sounds.

dartagnan said...

"Anywho, regarding the Implode-O-meter, I had a similar thought. Maybe put it in the sidebar. BEM named The Shire, some of the vacant eyesore lots downtown, and other potential "busts".

One that's absolutely GOT to be there is the Abito purchase of the old Bend Trap Club site. After spending multimillions to clean up 220,000 pounds of lead they ran headlong into the real estate bust and now they're trying to unload the property. I almost feel sorry for the poor sumbitches. ALMOST.

Tellya what's gonna happen: Sooner or later somebody will buy the thing and they'll go to the city and say, "Hey, you gotta increase the density so we can develop it as apartments -- we can't make it pencil as RS." And of course the city will say okay, following the Official Bend Motto: "Whatever the developer wants, the developer gets."

Where in the law of God or man does it say the government has to GUARANTEE that developers make a profit? If they make a bad business decision, let 'em take the loss like any other business would. Fuck 'em.

dartagnan said...

"The owners of the trailer park should not have to bear the cost of relocating their tennants anymore than an apartment renter."

There's a crucial difference, though: The trailer park tenants own their units, while apartment renters don't. When the trailer park owner closes the park they are in effect dispossessed. I hear all kinds of talk about the property rights of the park owners, but let's not forget that the tenants have property, and property rights, as well.

Timothy said...

>>After spending multimillions to clean up 220,000 pounds of lead they ran headlong into the real estate bust and now they're trying to unload the property. I almost feel sorry for the poor sumbitches. ALMOST.

The ridiculous stuff that happens at the top of the market always seems crazy two years later.

Anonymous said...

"It's a catch-22 for local Bendites. Lower prices will make it possible for them to buy houses again, but will probably attract more out-of-staters to move here too"

Keep in mind we just saw a once in a generation bubble with the EASIEST and most lax credit conditions probably in out nations history, add to that all the CREATIVE finance via ARMs and such and it was pure rocket fuel.

Therefore when we hit bottom I would only expect a slow and grinding move up, absolutely nothing like we saw the past 2-3 years.

Plus, given Bend's poor jobs/income market there is simply not the income here and jobs base to sustain much more, especially as easy money will not be around for at least the next decade in all likelihood.

Anonymous said...

Hayden has been selling the same approximately 1,200-square-foot home in south Bend since 2000, Murphy told the PubTalk crowd. Prices on that model rose from around $100,000 in 2000 to $280,000 in 2006. The company sold its last one this year for $215,000.


This is about as close as Dennis Murphy ever gets to telling the truth.
The houses "the company" sold this year were actually beat to shit rentals that were built in 2000 and owned by none other than Dennis Murphy. His agenda at this Pub Talk was to beat down the owners of subdividable acreage that Hayden is in negotiations with.

Anonymous said...

His agenda at this Pub Talk was to beat down the owners of subdividable acreage that Hayden is in negotiations with.

*

"His agenda" let's see, you still have to have a buyer, and like he says the raw land has been over-priced for years.

dartagnan said...

"The trailer park tenants own their units, while apartment renters don't. "

The trailer park tenants are Bends "jerry's kids", and thus deserve a special break.

In ten years Bend will be known as a trailer-park paradise.

True ownership in Bend, means owning your own 16 foot single wide out on China Hat Road.

dartagnan said...

"Where in the law of God or man does it say the government has to GUARANTEE that developers make a profit?"

In Bend god is law. In Bend god says that developers created god.

Developers are Bends chosen people. They are the new jews. Do not persecute the developer or builder, or you will be considered an anti-semite.

Bend Economy Man said...

Well, the dialogue has definitely changed. The news here is that this guy wasn't ignored, shouted down, booed off the stage or tarred-and-feathered.

It makes me wonder if there are still any "Life Is Good" (the former blog visitor) types who think that there's no way prices could go down significantly in Bend.

Because here you've got a developer, speaking to an RE crowd, saying he expects a 50% reduction in local RE values in the near future. I mean, that puts him in housing-bear-freak territory (or at least it would have 6 months ago).

RE people in Bend must be seriously freaked out about now. There's pretty much no place to go for reassurance.

Now that the bears dominate the discussion and the headlines are full of RE gloom, it will be funny a year or two from now when the first underground RE optimist blogs appear! And with time, they'll be right!

Anonymous said...

-
A couple Op-Ed letters from today's Bulletin:

Property owner not selfish
Published: September 18. 2007 5:00AM PST

I have to take exception to the comments of letter writer Carlton Yee, who calls Mr. Dolf a “transplant,” as if he should wear an armband signifying his undesirable status. Six years’ military service, Eagle Scout, Scout leader and 16 years as a businessman contributing to the economy of Bend. This is not enough for him to assert his property rights?

As to rights, you’re not taxed on the property along the canal because you don’t own it, but we do. Mr. Dolf is my neighbor, and I have accompanied him as he sought signatures from canal residents (after my dog, who challenges trespassers, came in with a deep stab wound in his chest, apparently through the fence I had erected to keep out the unleashed dogs frequenting my property). About 35 so far have signed in agreement. They are also tired of the noise, dust and disruption of their quietude.

One of the signers, whose father is a 29-year resident on the canal, tried to get a couple to leave because they were throwing objects into the canal for their dogs to retrieve, and his neighbor’s dogs were barking incessantly. They basically told him to pound sand. They weren’t about to let some paraplegic in a wheelchair tell them what they could or couldn’t do on his property. So don’t imply that Mr. Dolf is selfish. He’s going to bat for these people as well.

Steve Younger

Bend

_______________________________


Californians are American
Published: September 18. 2007 5:00AM PST

I read with amazement the two references to Californians on the Sept. 8 editorial page. Both letter writer Carlton Yee and “In My View” contributor Donald Weisgerber ascribed the California roots of Mike Dolf and Mr. Joseph as being responsible for their alleged bad behavior.

If I’m correct, California is still part of the United States. I don’t think a passport or visa is necessary to enter or live in Oregon. I can only make the assumption that both Mr. Yee and Mr. Weisgerber are Native Americans whose ancestors have always been in the Oregon territories. Perhaps all states should seal their borders to prevent illegal immigration from state to state.

My wife and I moved to Bend to experience the beauty and recreational opportunities Central Oregon afforded. Even though we came from California, we contribute to the local economy by paying taxes and buying locally. We don’t litter, trespass, cut down trees illegally, park in restricted areas or violate other laws. I guess our only crime is being from California.

Perhaps Mr. Yee and Mr. Weisgerber would be more sympathetic if people labeled them as “those Oregonians” in derisive terms every time they venture out of the state or country.

Allan Pachtman

Bend

Anonymous said...

Morning news for your perusal with your coffee:


Real Estate
Mortgage Meltdown 2007 Archive

August foreclosures zoom
Sun Belt states catch up with Rust Belt states to lead mortgage delinquency rates, according to a monthly survey.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com
September 18 2007: 8:38 AM EDT


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Late summer brought no relief from soaring foreclosures. The number of homes in some stage of default jumped 36 percent month-over-month in August, according to a regular monthly survey.

Delinquencies and defaults more than doubled year over year to 243,947, according to August figures released Tuesday by RealtyTrac, a marketer of foreclosed properties. RealtyTrac's forecast is for total foreclosure filings to exceed 2 million this year.


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"The jump in foreclosure filings this month might be the beginning of the next wave of increased foreclosure activity, as a large number of subprime adjustable rate loans are beginning to reset now," James Saccacio, chief executive of RealtyTrac, said in a statement.

October is expected to be a peak month for hybrid adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) to reset, with the interest rates on some $50 billion worth of loans poised to go up dramatically.

In the past few months, the foreclosure story has become a tale of two regions. Some of the hardest hit states have traditionally been in the Midwest, where plant closings and job losses have hit the economy there hard.

The other region is the Sun Belt, which is showing even more significant foreclosure growth as out-sized price increases in the first half of the decade led to virtually unchecked real estate speculation.

Nevada led all the other states in the rate of August foreclosure filings: one for every 165 households for a total of 6,197. Other hard-hit, sun-belt states were California (one in 224), Florida (one in 243), Georgia (one in 271), Arizona (one in 289), Colorado (one in 312) and Texas (one in 532).

Rust-belt states in the top 10 included Ohio (one in 281), Michigan (one in 288) and Indiana (one in 544).

California placed six cities among the top 10 metro areas for the number of filings. Modesto led the way with one of every 79 households. Stockton, Merced, Vallejo-Fairfield, Riverside-San Bernardino and Sacramento also hit the top 10. Detroit, Cleveland, Ft. Lauderdale and Las Vegas rounded out the list of worst hit metro areas.

California, by far the most populous state, also led the nation in the actual number of foreclosures. Some 57,975 households were in some stage of default during the month. Florida was next with 33,932 and Ohio, with 17,793, was third.

Saccacio also pointed out that many more of the delinquent homes are winding up back in the hands of the lenders under the designation REO (real estate owned) properties.

When borrowers can't catch up on their mortgages, their homes are often sold before the actual foreclosure takes place. Even if they go on to the next step in the process - auction - they may not draw higher enough bids for lenders to accept the sales. In that event, they return to the banks as REO properties.

When housing markets were hot, many delinquent borrowers escaped actual foreclosure because their home equity had grown enough so that it well exceeded the amount of the loan's debt. That enabled them to sell their properties at a profit or refinance and use the money to pay off past loans.

Because of the housing slump, far fewer homeowners are in that position today. Indeed, many are underwater, owing more on their mortgages than the homes are worth. All told, fewer borrowers have the resources they need to work out their debts without being foreclosed on

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Developers are Bends chosen people. They are the new jews.

I should say, I sort of made up the "God's Chosen People" term with absolutely no knowledge of it's Jewish connotations. My ignorance of religion is so vast, it cannot be measured with known technology.

Anonymous said...

Even though we came from California, we contribute to the local economy by paying taxes and buying locally. We don’t litter, trespass, cut down trees illegally, park in restricted areas or violate other laws. I guess our only crime is being from California.
*
Yes, coming from Cali is enough. GUILTY.
You don't even have to guess. If your from cali, then you have brought cali with you to Oregon.
Oregon doesn't want to become cali.
Its the people of cali that make it the shit-hole it is.
If they come to Oregon, then Oregon becomes a bigger shit-hole than it has already become.
Put the sing back on I-5, "Visit but don't stay".

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

If I’m correct, California is still part of the United States.

Fuck you, moron.

I don’t think a passport or visa is necessary to enter or live in Oregon.

Fuck you again.

Perhaps all states should seal their borders to prevent illegal immigration from state to state.

No, just California. We're not averse to normal people, just moron assholes.

Six years’ military service, Eagle Scout, Scout leader and 16 years as a businessman contributing to the economy of Bend. This is not enough for him to assert his property rights?

What the fuck does any of that shit have to do with his PROPERTY RIGHTS? Nothing. So again, Fuck You.

Even though we came from California, we contribute to the local economy by paying taxes and buying locally. We don’t litter, trespass, cut down trees illegally, park in restricted areas or violate other laws. I guess our only crime is being from California.

Now you're catching on, Dumbshit.

(after my dog, who challenges trespassers, came in with a deep stab wound in his chest, apparently through the fence I had erected to keep out the unleashed dogs frequenting my property)

You're lucky the fucker has not been SHOT.

I read with amazement the two references to Californians on the Sept. 8 editorial page. Both letter writer Carlton Yee and “In My View” contributor Donald Weisgerber ascribed the California roots of Mike Dolf and Mr. Joseph as being responsible for their alleged bad behavior.

"Amazement"? You stupid Californian dumb mother fuckers are so profoundly selfish & stupid, you can't understand why The World hates your ass. That's YOUR problem. Stupid bitches complain about Bush Wrecking The Environment from your fuckin' 40ft long Escalades. FUCK YOU. GO HOME. LOCUST MOTHER FUCKERS.

Yeah, you should wear armbands, but you don't have to. We can instantly spot you selfish bitches 1,000 miles away. GET OUT.

Anonymous said...

Now that the bears dominate the discussion and the headlines are full of RE gloom, it will be funny a year or two from now when the first underground RE optimist blogs appear! And with time, they'll be right! - bem

*

I agree, but even @ -50% these will NOT be deals, there is NO way in hell that easy-money will return. We had Tulip mania. Sure long haulers 'might' be able to pick up a few Shevlin homes for $200k, but rent them to who? There is going to be housing glut for years to come.

The city will over react and tax the shit out of this place, as they don't want to layoff 90% of their people.

My fear was folks would realize too soon that the bubble was over. Bend is too much like the great depression bust on the stock market. Every shoeshine boy in Bend had 2 or 3 spec homes, and a few in Prineville.

The migration is always cali, then north, its going to take a long time to fix cali. Then there is the jobs issue, there are NO jobs in Bend, and this is NOT going to change, especially given what this CITY has to do about TAXES. The FREE SDC ride has put Bend $3Billion in the whole, just to enrich the developers "Bends chosen people". BIG TAX increases are on the horizon, and this will drive away business.

It really doesn't matter how bullish or bearish you are. Even if you can get a home in Bend, what in the hell are your going to do with it? This is a town with over 50% 'vacation second homes', and now very few people can afford the lifestyle.

Given that we're isolated, and there are no jobs, we might see the retirees moving here, but remember that our summer is only june-september, its simply too cold here most of the year.

I really think Bend, will recover to the early 80's, where a nice little 1200 sq-ft home will run you $120k, and in todays worthless dollar value that might be $180k. The city/county MUST layoff people, the government people are those with the BIG checks, and thus we'll have fewer rich.

Bend will once again be a washed up old logging town. There might be a few retirees, but the amenity vultures/locusts will move on, which means that fewer magazines will be promoting Bend.

Basically we're counting on two birds to pay the taxes here, retirees, and telecommuters. All things being equal we really are NO better than any where else, thus we'll get our share, but it will NOT be over 25%. With the demise of MTG,RE,Title,Construction we're going to see a 50% unemployment, and folks have to simply leave. Which means even more empty vacant homes.

Why in the hell would people rush to a place as described?

Like the article today about folks fighting along the canal. There will be more and more fighting amongst people. There is no longer any reason to be nice and politically correct anymore. We're no longer a tourist destination. We can all now put our mean face on.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Six years’ military service, Eagle Scout, Scout leader and 16 years as a businessman contributing to the economy of Bend. This is not enough for him to assert his property rights?

Cali: "Hi, I'm calling to complain about people on my property."

911: "OK, where do you live?"

Cali: "I used to be an Eagle Scout."

911: "What?"

Cali: "I've been in business for 16 years."

911: "What are you talking about?"

Cali: "I used to be a Scout Leader."

911: "This is 911, making prank calls is an arrestable offense. Now why are you calling?"

Cali "I was in the military for 6 years."

911: "OK, that tears it you dumb mother fucker, I'm sending a black & white to the address on my screen to pick up your psychotic stupid ass!"

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

There will be more and more fighting amongst people. There is no longer any reason to be nice and politically correct anymore. We're no longer a tourist destination. We can all now put our mean face on.

You wanna see where human ugliness has broke out in epidemic proportions, go the Sisters NuggetNews.com, and read some of the Letters To The Editor. Holy shit, everyone, and I mean EVERYONE in that town is furious. 2 years ago... NOTHING like this. Nothing but letters by old women thanking other old women for birthday party gifts. Today, it's nothing but people furious at City Gov't & each other.

And it is ALL about money... RE money. You think Bend is dependent on RE? Ain't got nothin' on Sisters! Shit, Sisters economy is 150% RE (that extra 50% is a buttload of borrowed money to puff up the bubble in one last Hurrah).

Not sure when, but I guarantee you Sisters will go broke... spectacularly.

Anonymous said...

It makes me wonder if there are still any "Life Is Good" (the former blog visitor) types who think that there's no way prices could go down significantly in Bend.

*

I know so many 'life is good' people here. Its all the same, built a $1M home here during the last five years. Planned on doubling their money.

An incredible amount of 'retirees' moved here and got FUCKED in Bend. In the short term pulling excessive amounts out of your retirement fund is good for the tax man,...

The whole deal here was for retirees to big and buy/build the BIG house, double, quadruple their money, and then buy small,...

Now folks see their life-savings dwindle, all their money tied up in a real estate, which will NOT come back to what they paid in their lifetime....

Bend has screwed a vast number of retiree's, that said its their own fault for playing the game.

I can see two kinds of retiree's here in Bend, small house nice life, and BIG house and no cash.

Like I have said over & over here, these monster homes never made any sense.

Given that the whole deal was a charade and con coming out of city hall, perhaps what we need to do is tie SDC's to square-footage, and make people who build BIG homes pay, and NOT subsidize BIG homes, and then perhaps people will build affordable homes.

In summary, our retiree's are not going to do well with the BEND RE CRASH.

A lot of our telecommuters came here for the same reason, say you just sit in front of a computer, why work in the BAY. Well guess what soon in the BAY a home will be cheap, and there is a job choice there. Our telecommuters came to Bend for two reasons one they could afford to BUY here, and two they ALL assumed they would double their money, now they have LOST 1/2 their money, and its unlikely their telecommuting FIRM will survive the recession.

I just see a long cold winter for BEND for years to come.

That said NO MORE worse than 1983 in Bend, the best of years. Especially in the winter a little snow on the ground, and NO people, and boarded up shops downtown. Just stroll around and breath the smoke from the woodstoves.

Timothy said...

>>I agree, but even @ -50% these will NOT be deals, there is NO way in hell that easy-money will return. We had Tulip mania.

Last week I heard some guy use the old line, "It's hard to get a soufflé to rise twice," which I think is a great line for where we are in Real Estate now.

Timothy said...

>>The whole deal here was for retirees to big and buy/build the BIG house, double, quadruple their money, and then buy small,...

I know three people who were in the midst of pulling this off (downsizing with a grand sale of the big house) who are stuck with two houses. They bought the little one and can't sell the big one.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

This is about as close as Dennis Murphy ever gets to telling the truth.
The houses "the company" sold this year were actually beat to shit rentals that were built in 2000 and owned by none other than Dennis Murphy. His agenda at this Pub Talk was to beat down the owners of subdividable acreage that Hayden is in negotiations with.


Yeah, the fact that they guy sold the same house in 2000 for $100K, and $280K at the top (same land prices), tells me his "reverence" for low prices varies directly with the maximum he can extract from any given buyer. That said, I'd do the exact same thing.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

A home got marked down in Skyliner Summit to $130/sf 2 days ago. (MLS 2708344)

As something Tim has said before, prices are really determined at the margin, and to that effect BendBust is sort of right in saying medians are useless; they might tell you about middle prices, but you as a buyer will rationally seek THE BEST price, not some middling deal. Here's a table of the 5 lowest PPSF Skyliner homes from BendBB's Feb 2007 data (sorry about the formatting):

+---------+-----------+-----------------+------------+------------+------+------+
| mls_num | home_area | home_addition | curr_price | prev_price | sqft | ppsf |
+---------+-----------+-----------------+------------+------------+------+------+
| 2605231 | Bend | Skyliner Summit | 545000 | NULL | 3325 | 164 |
| 2700561 | Bend | Skyliner Summit | 539900 | NULL | 3279 | 165 |
| 2608997 | Bend | Skyliner Summit | 545000 | 565000 | 3095 | 176 |
| 2614864 | Bend | Skyliner Summit | 549000 | 564900 | 3095 | 177 |
| 2606060 | Bend | Skyliner Summit | 599000 | 675000 | 3368 | 178 |
+---------+-----------+-----------------+------------+------------+------+------+

Here's the 5 lowest from Aug 2007:

+---------+-----------+-----------------+--------------+------------+------------+-------------+------------+------+------+---------------+
| mls_num | home_area | home_addition | listing_date | curr_price | prev_price | chg_percent | chg_date | sqft | ppsf | price_changes |
+---------+-----------+-----------------+--------------+------------+------------+-------------+------------+------+------+---------------+
| 2709959 | Bend | Skyliner Summit | 2007-07-25 | 458000 | 487000 | -5.95 | 2007-08-21 | 3348 | 137 | 3 |
| 2710334 | Bend | Skyliner Summit | 2007-07-31 | 499900 | 539900 | -7.41 | 2007-08-20 | 3440 | 145 | 1 |
| 2708344 | Bend | Skyliner Summit | 2007-06-26 | 495000 | 535000 | -7.48 | 2007-08-04 | 3357 | 147 | 1 |
| 2705431 | Bend | Skyliner Summit | 2007-04-30 | 528000 | 579000 | -8.81 | 2007-08-29 | 3480 | 152 | 4 |
| 2705086 | Bend | Skyliner Summit | 2007-04-23 | 539000 | 594500 | -9.34 | 2007-08-04 | 3429 | 157 | 2 |
+---------+-----------+-----------------+--------------+------------+------------+-------------+------------+------+------+---------------

You might hate BendBubble2, me & the Bears on this thing, but you'd better wake the hell up. The only one of the first 5 still for sale is 2608997, and it's been slashed from $176/sf to $158, which pushed it out of the Bottom 5 (it's 8th by my count).

This is how it will go this Winter: Somebody, or a lot of "Bodies" will need to sell. They will HAVE TO sell. And they will slash their way to the bottom, and by God THEY WILL SELL. You, who believe that your middle of the road priced non-spectacular crap shack is average and deserves an average price (this is almost certainly NOT what most people think... they think their meth-cooker house is 6,000% better than anyone elses, and pricing it at 150% of comps is a "STEAL". This is the effect of cooking meth, or living in CA for any amount of time), and you will by God NEVER SELL. You will be like MLS 2608997, make reasonable cuts but STILL NEVER SELL. MLS 2608997 HAD a better chance of selling back in Feb. Now? They have NO CHANCE. And what's better, THEIR PRICE IS FAR LOWER TODAY.

If you wanna sell, you can. Slash your price to THE LOWEST IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD.

"BUT I'LL LOSE MONEY!"

Check the tables. In Feb THE LOW was $164/sf, today it's $130/sf. There are NINE homes today BELOW THE LOWEST PPSF back in Feb ($164/sf). If you priced at $164/sf back in Feb you had a snowballs chance of selling, AND you would have MADE MONEY compared to what you could possibly hope to sell for today.

You wanna sell & NOT be decimated? Slash your price TODAY to the lowest price you can possibly tolerate, THEN CUT IT AGAIN. Prices are determined at the margin. NOT THE AVERAGE OR MEDIAN.

In 6 months, Skyliner will be at $110/sf and if your home today is priced ANYWHERE above the price of the 3 lowest PPSF Skyliner homes TODAY, YOU WILL NOT SELL. There will be a NEW LOW COMP, and it'll be 20% below todays prices. You think "slashing your price today" is a money loser? You ain't seen shit... leave your price IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK if you really want to watch the losses pile up.

Price it today at $125/sf AND GET IT, or HOLD OUT FOR MORE, AND NEVER SEE $125/sf AGAIN IN YOUR LIFETIME. And if you think that's BULLSHIT, look at those tables AGAIN. It's already happening RIGHT NOW. Skyliner has ALREADY TAKEN A 21% HAIRCUT.

Bend Economy Man said...

I really think Bend, will recover to the early 80's, where a nice little 1200 sq-ft home will run you $120k

Bend in the early '80s? For a 1200-square-foot home? Try $40K-50K. That'd be around $80K in today's dollars.

BTW, check out this Inflation Adjustment Calculator on CNN Money. A good tool.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

leave your price IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK if you really want to watch the losses pile up.

Skyliner's lowest PPSF will probably go below $100/sf in the next 2-3 years. I'm sure suggesting $130/sf back in Feb was equally heretical & unbelievable. 7 months, down $34/sf. Tell me another $30/sf ain't possible? Hell, there ain't no other option...

You know who's feeling Real Smart? Those 5 rock bottom priced Skyliner home owners back in Feb who bailed near $170/sf, and are looking at $130/sf in Skyliner today, laughing their asses off. Look for this scenario to repeat ad nauseum. Look for Skyliner PPSF prices to break especially hard during the first cold snap w/ snow on Black Butte. That should take out $10/sf right there.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Bend in the early '80s? For a 1200-square-foot home? Try $40K-50K. That'd be around $80K in today's dollars.

"and it's Bend Economy Man in 2nd, with BendBust in the lead.

And BEM makes his move.

BEM is coming up on the outside!

BEM is even with BendBust!

HE'S PASSING BendBust!

He's NOT STOPPING! BEM is approaching the finish line!

BEM is STILL PULLING AWAY. BendBust is FADING!

HE'S FADING! FADING!

Bend Economy Man WINS! UNBELIEVABLE UPSET! HE WINS! IT'S UNBELIEVABLE FOLKS! THEY SAID IT COULD NOT BE DONE!

In a stunning upset, Bend Economy Man WINS!
"

Timothy said...

And every time something sells low, it's a comp that buyers look at.

The biggest losers in Skyliner Summit (besides the people who bought at $610 and are selling at $499), are the "late droppers" who have had an empty house for a year as the FOLLOWED the price drops other sellers made.

Anonymous said...

BTW, check out this Inflation Adjustment Calculator on CNN Money. A good tool.

I like this one -- Six Ways to Compute the Relative Value of a U.S. Dollar Amount, 1790 - 2006.

http://measuringworth.com/calculators/uscompare/

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The biggest losers in Skyliner Summit, are the "late droppers"

As most are most things in a Bubble, this is very contrary to commonsense. Usually The Most Desperate, are fleeced the hardest by simply taking advantage of their desperation. Not now. The Most Desperate will actually be panicked into doing the most financially savvy thing... drop price to rock bottom.

Look at those Feb lowballers. They sold at prices well above todays "most desperate" Skyliner sellers ($130/sf). And they probably REALLY needed the money and were in the worst financial bind. Today, they're one hell of a lot better off than those still holding hard assets in Skyliner. And todays Most Desperate will be happy as hell they dropped price now, instead of holding a White Elephant 5 months from now amid a sea of $110/sf crap shacks... with even fewer unit sales than today. And repeat for Summer 2008... and Winter 2009... and SUmmer 2009... and so on....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

As most are most things in a Bubble...

"As are most things in a Bubble..."

Bend Bear said...

Looks like the clothes lines in Awbrey Butte are what is behind this slowdown...

From the front page of today's Wall St. Journal

"This bombards the senses," interior designer Joan Grundeman says of her neighbor's clothesline. "It can't possibly increase property values and make people think this is a nice neighborhood."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119007893529930697.html?mod=hpp_us_pageone

Anonymous said...

As most are most things in a Bubble...

As most of what IHTBYB is idle speculation, it shouldn't surprise anyone that the reality in Skyliner Summit is somewhat different. Here are a list of sales in the last six months showing PPSF.

271 NW Sandalwood Loop 174
151 NW Flagline Dr 192
126 NW Outlook Vista Dr 142
137 NW Outlook Vista Dr 160
165 NW Outlook Vista Dr 160
2465 NW Hosmer Lake Dr 168

So the range of PPSF on recent comps is 142-192 and the average is 166. Don't hold your breath waiting for those 100 PPSF houses in Skyliner Summit.

Anonymous said...

Don't hold your breath waiting for those 100 PPSF houses in Skyliner Summit.

*

We're ONLY year one into a minimum of a five year foreclosure cycle.

Don't hold your breath waiting for the price to go above $200/sqft.

Anonymous said...

Bend in the early '80s? For a 1200-square-foot home? Try $40K-50K. That'd be around $80K in today's dollars.
*
I agree, but I tend to use 1998, the last beginning of our current cycle.

In 1998 you could get a nice little home for $120k new. Inside of town. That would be about $180k in todays dollars.

I agree that 1980's was $50k, but hell play this game, go to 1970's and lets talk $15k, thats what we all paid on my street. Shit you could buy a brand new track home anywhere in Orange County in 1970 for $15k.

The reason I use 1998 is that is when American savings rate went negative. There the basis in my mind is $120k for a 1200 sq-ft home, which would be $100 sqft at 1998 dollars, which are worth much less today.

Things doubled by 2002, and then doubled again by 2005, today in my hood we're back at about the 2002 if you want to sell. I can honestly see things going back to the $120k level ( but at todays dollar ).

The reason I mention 1983 is that was the best of times, thats a different issue.

In my mind BEND went to SHIT in 1986, thats when I97 became a parking lot, and the Bend that I knew and loved became a CALI circus.

Getting back to 1998, its an important date for Bend. I have stressed for a long time this issue of a negative savings rate, I think I have mentioned here at least a 1,000 times, but I never explain.

Since 1998 Americans having been spending more than they earn. Thus even at say $120k its going to be very hard for a young couple to save $24k CASH. It's simply NOT going to happen, if even prices get cheap, and interest rates are low, if we go back to old days of frugal RE banking its going to be difficult. $24k is 1/2 year median income for a Bend household, most people in Bend like America have a negative savings rate.

What has been happening is that things got slower and slower, and by 2001 the government simply made it easy for people to buy homes zero-down. We can agree this isn't going to happen, and we agree that 20% down is a good idea, problem is that things like medical, insurance, cop tickets, everything is SO expensive now for people that
homeownership is going to be not an option for a lot of people.

Bend Economy Man said...

If I’m correct, California is still part of the United States. I don’t think a passport or visa is necessary to enter or live in Oregon. I can only make the assumption that both Mr. Yee and Mr. Weisgerber are Native Americans whose ancestors have always been in the Oregon territories. Perhaps all states should seal their borders to prevent illegal immigration from state to state.

I can just imagine this stupid prick's stupid fuckin' whitebread white-flight half-wit fuckin' face. He's got the sense of humor of a high-school woodshop teacher.

Please, Yuppies, move to Bend and help us make these old Californian middle-class retirees so uncomfortable that they leave town. I'd much rather have a redneck or a Yuppie living in my neighborhood than some former Eagle Scout who left Fairfield because it got too ethnic.

Anonymous said...

I really think Bend, will recover to the early 80's, where a nice little 1200 sq-ft home will run you $120k, and in todays worthless dollar value that might be $180k.

*

Ok, I went back, I think the mistake I made here was two issues, I was tired this AM, not sure if it had anything to do with monday night beer?

1.) I think bend will become more like the early 80's, in terms of poverty.

2.) I think prices will fall back to the 1998 level, before saving's became negative. ( 1998 you could get a nice little home for $120k new in inner bend )

WRT 80's, I don't think prices will drop to $50k, or even 70's $15k, all I along I have said that prices will be 4X, I prefer to use the WIKI median for household, which they claim to be about $40k/yr. Thus a nice little Bend home should be affordable for $160k, which would be 1998 $120 price with the worthless dollar in consideration.

The only problem, is how are folks going to get the $24k in our modern negative savings climate, and add this is to fact that our economy is going back to two $7/hr jobs, thus its going to be even harder in the future to save than in the past. There is NO sign of medical or insurance costs coming down. I really think we're going to see an over correction in historic home ownership levels. We had a high of 68% it could drop below 50% if all the folks dump their homes that are insolvent.

There isn't much chance of NEW buyers, unless we bring in a ton of Mexicans and give them ALL $25k to buy a home.

Timothy said...

>>"This bombards the senses," interior designer Joan Grundeman says of her neighbor's clothesline.

The Princess and the Pea. What delicate sensibilities she has if a clothesline gives her the vapors.

A simple comment of "that's against the community rules" would have been less vomit-inducing.

Anonymous said...


Dennis Murphy. His agenda at this Pub Talk was to beat down the owners of subdividable acreage that Hayden is in negotiations with.

*

Yeh, Yeh, ... agenda shemenda, ...

It doesn't matter, what matters is this the first time EVER a straight-shooter has been quoted and/or reported in the BULL.

The RE HO's must be going out of their minds "IGNORE DENNIS MURPHY", the fact is he tells the truth. Nobody ever goes before EDCO and tells the truth. This could cause a whole change of presentation.

Yeh, Murphy probably has lots of enemy's, but if he didn't buy any overpriced desert land, and if isn't sitting on a ton of RE that is under-water, then he most likely is sitting VERY pretty. Something you cannot say for most developer/builders in Bend.

Lastly, lets say Hayden does want to buy the land so what, let the seller sit on the land, and wait until next year. The interesting thing here is that RE-HO's hate Murphy, but NONE of them have proved any of his assertions incorrect!

Timothy said...

>>271 NW Sandalwood Loop 174
>>151 NW Flagline Dr 192
>>126 NW Outlook Vista Dr 142
>>137 NW Outlook Vista Dr 160
>>165 NW Outlook Vista Dr 160
>>2465 NW Hosmer Lake Dr 168

Compare those, on the one hand, against the 2005 sales. And on the other hand, against the current asking prices, and you'll see an obvious trend.

For four years, those houses sold mostly for $325k-$375k. Only when lenders went nutso did those houses shoot up.

We'll see that range again soon, most likely.

Anonymous said...

CANAL Cali's - CALIFORNICATE the FUCKING CANALS.

Regarding the crazy cali on the CANAL.

This is really the fault of the city, these canals had been here forever, the city should have never let them build their homes adjoining the canal.

Bend has used the canals right of ways for years to walk the dog and stroll. These calis' thought they were buying river front property. In cali, you can put up a fence, but IN OREGON everyone shares water-front. I guess this is the real problem here, the calis come here and TRY to CALIFORNICATE the FUCKING CANALS.

I don't use the canals because I hang on the west-side, that said, if I were walking the dog and some cali told me to keep-out I would gently remind him that him and his house came here a long time after the canals.

Again the REAL problem here is building on the canals, there MUST be a moratorium, and I suggest a 100 feet separation, perhaps more, THESE CALIS DONT OWN THE CANALS.

Anonymous said...

According to centraloregonrealtor.com, current Skyliner Summer asking prices range from $430,000 (2,355 sf) to $587,000 (3,230 sf). That's not counting the high-end houses on bigger lots, only the ones on smaller lots.

Timothy said...

As listed above, there are 5 houses in Skyliner Summit with ASKING PRICES (sale prices could be lower) under $160 per square foot. In other words, five houses ALL under the most recent sales.

Anonymous said...

And if people bought things on price alone those 5 houses would have already sold, but the reality is that people have many complex reasons for buying things, some of them rational and some irrational. Location matters and looks matter, even within a subdivision like Skyliner Summit.

Can you hang a clothesline in Skyliner Summit, or is it like Awbrey Butte?

dartagnan said...

"Oregon doesn't want to become cali. Its the people of cali that make it the shit-hole it is. If they come to Oregon, then Oregon becomes a bigger shit-hole than it has already become."

So why the hell don't you move to Burns or Baker City or LaGrande or some other remote Oregon one-stoplight burg where the "calis" will never want to live because it's such a GODDAMN REDNECK SHITHOLE?

Frankly your incessant and repetitious rants are giving me a pain in the ass. You apparently expected "the old Bend" to be preserved forever like a fly in amber and now you're pissed off because it wasn't.

Things change. Towns grow. Deal with it or move out.

Bend Economy Man said...

Things change. Towns grow. Deal with it or move out.

And it's not done changing either. Whether it's going to be growth change or another kind of change, time will tell, but one thing is certain - things are gonna keep changing around here, especially for the development crowd. Big changes are in store: one day, driving your $50,000 Hummer in a gated community, next day, giving $50 hummers in a trash-strewed vacant lot.

About the invitation to move out, if you've got a real estate-related job, it just might be you who moves out. Not because you want to, not because someone on a blog told you to, but because it's either that or living in a van down by the river, minus the van.

Timothy said...

>>And if people bought things on price alone those 5 houses would have already sold

Are you arguing just to argue? The lowest asking prices are lower than the lowest asking prices were. The higher asking prices are lower than the highest asking prices were.

The trend is undeniable. Asking prices are moving lower. Whether it's the bottom houses or the top ones.

Anonymous said...

It wasn't that long ago when BEM was writing sympathetically about the local boys who grew up to become contractors and developers, better jobs than most others they could have gotten, and now he's writing about them "giving $50 hummers in a trash-strewed vacant lot." Were BEM and bendbust drinking together last night?

Anonymous said...

For timothy

Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. -- Niels Bohr

*

For bendbust

The future ain't what it used to be. -- Yogi Berra

Anonymous said...

Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. -- Niels Bohr

*

Things really don't change, human nature doesn't change. Bend cycles haven't really changed. What has changed is as I have written many times is that Bend became exponentially californicated after 1986. Peaking in 2006. Many will move on. That's twenty years of californication, I don't think many places can take it. Like a town that makes whores of all its daughters, the town will change.

The easy money times allowed Bend to become the #1 in appreciation for two years, every two bit hustler in the US came and bought a junk of Bend. This is gold-rush. The gold-rush is over. We know what happens to towns post gold rush.

Some things aren't difficult to predict. Certainly the outcome of a ballgame, but folks have long been able to predict lunar cycles, thus eclipses. Economic boom/bust cycles aren't hard. Certainly I cannot predict interest rates, because that is controlled by a few well placed men.

The BEND-BUST on the other hand is-was predicted by all of us. I for one all along have stuck to the 4X rule, X is household income $40k, and thus afford-ability for real people is $160k. At that price homes will sell.

I'm rather certain where the bottom is going, we also know that its going to be at least five years to clear foreclosure inventory. Most likely this bust will be 5-20 years.

Given that SO MUCH of Bend is the CON-ARTIST, marketing, PR, and the fact that we were #1 for NO good reason in appreciation. We will GO DOWN, and WE WILL GO DOWN HARD. Many came to participate, and the only reason they haven't left the party is they cannot sell their house.

It's going to take five years to clear inventory, but certainly the first year will be the worst. The panic has started, this winter will be ugly. Yet, its only the beginning. Soon people will realize its not coming back and many will leave.

I don't predict ball games, interest rates, but I think you can predict the outcome of the bust on a small desert town that was marketed by hucksters. I think you can predict what happens when a desert gold rush town goes from a few to 50k, and then the gold runs out. A few stick around digging old claims, smart guys sell out early, stores start closing. Once there is no food to buy, thats the kiss of death.

I keep using the early 80's as reference, best of times, simple times, people will be out chopping wood to heat their homes, and killing deer to eat. You can do that here, those that don't want that lifestyle will move to the big city.

There is NO surprise in our economic meltdown. All have predicted it for years. The coming baby boom end, would result in a large quantity of homes being dumped on the market, and now kids can' afford them. Folks don't need shit when the get old, and kids don't have money.

USA is going into 10+ year recession, and the ONLY way out will be a BIG war.

Even if we hadn't had easy money, we still would be having the problems of today. The slowdown was imminent, everyone knew it was coming. All the recent easy-money did was put the working-poor ( thats most of bend ) into more debt.

Take the debt, and the negative savings rate, ... and put it all together, and the things look pretty bleak for the next few year. I don't think this prediction is rocket science, I think most economists saw it coming.

Just like social security, medicare, there is much of the USA that is a house of sand. Like Bend real estate.

Anonymous said...

dartagnan said...
So why the hell don't you move to Burns or Baker City or LaGrande a GODDAMN REDNECK SHITHOLE?

*

Dartagnan,

You really need to get off the computer. Baker got yuppified fifteen years ago, and so did LaGrande. Burns is not what it used to be. Baker & LaGrande are on I-84, thus very easy to access. Burns only grace is East-20 is lonely out there. Then again they're only 2 hours from Bend. Arggh so far from god, but so close to Bend.

You need to get out and travel and see Oregon.

** RANT

I can't move, too old, and too stuck here, but I can stay and fight and drive all the calis out. God bless the rednecks, they built this place.

What did the Calis bring? Easy-Money, Faux riche, bacon-tempura(DEEP), ... hummer, escalades, excursions, ... oh yea GOLF, the calis brought all the fucking golf courses. Out in the middle of the desert they build golf courses, just like palm-springs.

Everything the Calis touch turns to shit, because they are Human Locust.

Everything EVIL about Bend can be traced back to CALI. SHIT KURATEK is from Cali, how much needs to be said?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I can just imagine this stupid prick's stupid fuckin' whitebread white-flight half-wit fuckin' face.

"I can't believe it folks!

BEM is rounding the horn AGAIN!

Is it possible to win a horse race twice?

YES! BEM wins again!"

Anonymous said...

The trend is undeniable. Asking prices are moving lower. Whether it's the bottom houses or the top ones. - tim

*

Now you just have to repeat that 1,000 times and of 50% will get it,

good luck

Anonymous said...

I can just imagine this stupid prick's stupid fuckin' whitebread white-flight half-wit fuckin' face. - bem

*

Did some cali cut him off?

Didn't Bem use to be the censor?

Where does this anger come from?

Is it in the water?

We need to get some of those crazy Llama's & Emu's and run them along the canal.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

It wasn't that long ago when BEM was writing sympathetically about the local boys who grew up to become contractors and developers, better jobs than most others they could have gotten, and now he's writing about them "giving $50 hummers in a trash-strewed vacant lot."

I don't think he was talking about rank & file contractors. I don't know a single guy hanging sheetrock who drives a Hummer... even if they could afford to.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Where does this anger come from?

Is it in the water?


Speaking of "white-flight", I was over at "Tortilla Reyes" near Reed Market, and those boys can make a steak burrito. I just hope my meal was blessed with some Holy Water straight out of the Rio Grande, and I can spend tomorrow on the toilet.

That there's some good shit.

Anonymous said...

One thing I wanted to write about today. Given that the collapse is now well known is the Quality of Bend Homes.

Last year a major Builder over a beer said "Never buy a home in Bend built after 2002".

Talking about SHEEEET. Look around go up to NWXC on sunday and walk around and look how they're building now. This stuff isn't even made to last ten years. We have entered the era of disposable homes. Hell they were paying +500K for a home that would be shit in five years, of course they all intended to flip.

So here is another prediction, and I think this is obvious. Bend RE is going down, and all the new stuff is going to be a dump in ten years. Like Tijuana card-board shacks. This stuff will NOT weather. Also kick in the fact that given that BURN-RATE is such a high percentage of income, who can afford to maintain??

There were a ton of homes built in Bend 2002->2006, there was as an RE gold-rush. But it was ALL SHIT. Thus high end folks will NOT be buying this shit, so you must ADD this back into the equation.

Ok, so a guy up in Redmond is making nice clean "NEW" homes for $190k, ... why would you buy a shit home in a Bend Suburb that was built to last only five years?

Let's predict... What are these 3,000+ sqft mcMansions out in the desert going to be worth, once they sit unoccupied for 2-3 years?? It just like Sacramento with pools full of mosquitos, but in Bend its going to be chipmunks, and deer mice with hanta-virus.

Developers/Builders got away with murder 2002-2006 this is why today they refuse to let the SDC increase. They had been running the show their way. They were allowed to cut corners, use the cheapest material. They took ALL their winnings and kept putting it back into the game.

Today its game-over, and everybody is sitting on developed lots, and nobody can get a loan.

Bend is a fucking mess.

Anyone want to predict the outcome?

Today is the game of predictions.

Add the quality factor into our BEND inventory.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Did some cali cut him off?

Didn't Bem use to be the censor?


Being a blog moderator ain't all it's cracked up to be. Look at me. I have to "hold back" what I REALLY THINK all the time.

>>Fuck you, moron.

>>Fuck you again.

>>We're not averse to normal people, just moron assholes.

>>What the fuck does any of that shit have to do with his PROPERTY RIGHTS? Nothing. So again, Fuck You.

>>Now you're catching on, Dumbshit.

>>You're lucky the fucker has not been SHOT.


I am one seriously repressed motherfucker. If I told that dumbfuck Cali-spunk-munkee what I really thought, I'd probably be in jail.

Anonymous said...

I don't know a single guy hanging sheetrock who drives a Hummer... even if they could afford to.

*

Actually at Parilla, theres a bunch of them that come in frequently. The kicker is they park over at Rigobertos, and then walk across the street. I mention this because of the I can park anywhere attitude, its ALL mine.

DON'T FUCK WITH ME. EVERYTHING IS BIG, MY HUMMER, MY HOUSE, AND MY DICK.

There was the 'hummer', but a lot of these are hummer-2's they can be had for 40K, and thats on a lease with nothing down. The original HUMMER MILITARY version is over $100k, and very rare, the current H2 is just a box, with a Chrysler frame, and a shit engine. The original hummer was an 8-liter diesel.

While I agree that the Hummer is NOT a truck for a working guy, there is the gang-bang image, tinted windows, lots of room for the Ho's.

So very Californian, which is why its despised in this forum.

Most of our contractors are down 1-1/2 years now, work is thin, and many that I know have to drive to pronghorn for work.

Anonymous said...

Most of our contractors are down 1-1/2 years now, work is thin, and many that I know have to drive to pronghorn for work.
*

Yeh, 2002-2004 was buy toys,

Summer of 2005 toys got sold,

Summer of 2006 big pick-up got sold,

Summer of 2007 drive girlfriends car to jobsite.

We're really not far from $50 hummers on the side of building downtown in empty lots. That used to be a D&D special, but I think it was more like $5, for fifty I think you could get one of Bends Best RE-HO's.

Anonymous said...

Being a blog moderator ain't all it's cracked up to be.

*

Hell look what it did to bendbb.

Turned him into some kind of Hitler with a Napoleon complex.

I would say that being in Blog Moderator in Bend puts in you on reins of power.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

From a WSJ online article,
The Right to Dry: A Green Movement Is Roiling America



Then the trouble started. One neighbor asked if it was temporary. Next came a phone call -- and then a series of letters -- from Brooks Resources. The first letter, dated June 12, warned that "laundry lines are not permitted in the Awbrey Butte Subdivision," adding that "many owners in Awbrey Butte take great pride in their home and surrounding areas."

Ms. Taylor responded two days later with a letter asserting that the rule is "outdated." She requested a change in the rules to "reflect our urgent need and responsibility to help global warming by encouraging energy conservation."

The Awbrey Butte Architectural Review Committee "appreciates your desire to make a difference for the cause of global warming," responded Brooks Resources Owner-Relations Manager Carol Haworth. But she pointed out that homeowners agree to the rules before they buy their homes, "and therefore the ARC is required to uphold those guidelines as they now exist."

The letter more sternly asked "that you discontinue this practice by July 9, 2007, to avoid legal action which will be taken after that date."

Ms. Taylor responded by pointing out that the subdivision is "blatantly full of noncompliant owners" who display everything from plastic play equipment to exterior paint colors that don't meet the requirement of "medium to dark tones." She added: "Who am I hurting by hanging clothes out to dry?"

Brooks Resources repeated its threat of legal action, and then advised Ms. Taylor to "develop a plan to screen your outdoor laundry and submit the plan to the ARC for review." It also suggested the possibility of formal proceedings to get the rules amended, which would require 51% of homeowners' support in writing.

The following month, Ms. Taylor constructed a fabric screen to conceal her clothesline. The committee, which included Brooks Resources Chairman Michael P. Hollern, gave it a thumbs down. "It doesn't blend with the home or the native surroundings," says Ms. Haworth.

Mr. Hollern says, "Personally, I think people probably ought to screen their laundry from other people's view. If you feel differently, you should probably be living somewhere else."

Many neighbors agree. When Ms. Grundeman first noticed the Taylor clothesline, she assumed it was temporary. "My first thought was, 'Oh gosh, her dryer must have broken,' " says the interior designer. Then it became a regular occurrence, and she called Brooks Resources to complain.

Ms. Taylor does have supporters. "I don't think it's unsightly," says John McLaughlin, a former sporting-goods executive who lives down the street from Ms. Taylor. "I like the values that go along with it." He says he may hang his own clothesline.

Facing the threat of legal action, Ms. Taylor has in recent days resorted to hanging the laundry in her garage, with the door open slightly. But she says that denies her laundry the direct benefits of the sun and the fresh mountain air. She is thinking of moving to a less-restrictive neighborhood.


FUCK YOU HOLLERN! And to think I felt bad for making that turd out to be a Nazi pilot on an earlier post. I HATE this shit! This sort of HYPOCRITICAL BULLSHIT is infuriating.

"Yeah, we BUILD "green", but the fuckin' microsecond someone actually DOES something meaningful by acting locally that might reduce property values 1 dollar, they come down on them like a ton of bricks, lawsuits and all. Just like that hypocritical Renaissance motherfucker, Randy "I love killing elk with green homes" Sebastian. Lying ass lowlife fuckwad would slaughter 1,000,000 elk to make $100 on a GREEN HOME.

FUCK YOU, YOU COCKSUCKIN' LYING MOTHERFUCKIN' DOUCHEBAGS.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


I would say that being in Blog Moderator in Bend puts in you on reins of power.


If I'm holding The Reins Of Power, WHEN DO I MOTHERFUCKIN' GET PAID! Fuck'n A, I should have asked for more money on this gig....

Anonymous said...

From a WSJ online article,
The Right to Dry: A Green Movement Is Roiling America
-- from Brooks Resources.

*

I always said Bend would be famous.

Here we are in the national press. A few weeks ago it was a guy flying in a lawn chair. Now its granny going to prison for hanging out her g-string.

There there are ALL Brooks Resources lawyers working 24/7 to sell those homes.

Besides the bend-bust-meter, ... another good joke someday would be to list all the dumb fucking nazi rules in these gated communitys.

Can't have your garage door open, unless your in there.

If your home curtains open, if your not home curtains closed.

It's the law.

You cannot 'work' on your car, anywhere in the subdivision, including your yard, house, or garage.

This ALL California, Mike Hollern is California.

Anonymous said...

The only thing that was ever GREEN about Bend homes was the color of money.

Anonymous said...

bendbust wrote: Turned him into some kind of Hitler with a Napoleon complex.

So bendbust once again proves the truth of Godwin's law: As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches one.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Godwin's_law

-- bendbb

Anonymous said...

The invocation of Godwins law is the last domain of tyrants and pederasts.

Anonymous said...


As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches one.


Bendbb didn't even notice the swastikas on Hollerns plane, but paints them on his own toy planes and pee-pee. Go figure.

Anonymous said...

Frankly your incessant and repetitious rants are giving me a pain in the ass.

Bendbust's posts about "pederasts" and "pee-pee" are making me wonder what he used to do during those good old days in Bend. Maybe he enjoys giving people a pain in the ass.

Duncan McGeary said...

Of course we can predict where the housing market is 'probably' going. That's what we've been doing, and I don't think we've been very far off, either.

Just because you can't predict some things, doesn't mean you can't predict all things.

You may not be able to predict the weather, but you can predict winter will be colder. Why? Because we'll be farther from the sun.

I may not be able to predict the stock market, but I can predict that if building starts are at half the levels of two years ago, that there is going to be less construction work available.

And so on. This isn't a infinite market. There are finite variables.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches one.


Holy shit, that's the funniest damn thing I've read in ages! Oh shit.

Anyway, I gotta go eat, you Nazi lovin' motherfuckers.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

pederasts

Is than when a copperhead snakes up your ass?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

If your home curtains open, if your not home curtains closed.

Why not just give everyone signs to hang in the front window:

PLEASE ROB ME.

dartagnan said...

"You may not be able to predict the weather, but you can predict winter will be colder. Why? Because we'll be farther from the sun."

Uh, Duncan, that ain't quite how it works.

Duncan McGeary said...

Uh, Duncan, that ain't quite how it works.

Damn. I knew I was getting that wrong.

Will you allow that my premise still stands despite my scientific ignorance?

dartagnan said...

"if you've got a real estate-related job, it just might be you who moves out."

Fortunately I don't have a real estate-related job and I'm staying right here. (Don't have any mortgage either.)

Duncan McGeary said...

"What Causes Winter?

As any ten year old can tell us, the Earth rotates around the sun once every year. At the same time, the planet tilts on its axis, and this has an even more dramatic effect on the weather. The popular belief that winter is caused as the Earth moves away from the Sun during the widest part of its orbit, and thus causes winter, is not true. In actual fact, winter occurs when the sun is at it's closest point.

The planet tilts 23°27' (23 degrees 27 minutes) and this causes different parts of the Earth's surface to be closer to the sun at various parts of its orbit. It is this variation that brings about the seasons. In winter, the northern hemisphere is tilted away from the sun and thus experiences colder temperatures. Since the southern hemisphere will be tilted toward the sun at this point, it's seasons are always the opposite of ours.

During the winter, the light rays coming in from the sun hit the Earth surface at a lower angle. Less energy is transferred to the surface as a result of the glancing nature of these rays. Basically, the same amount of light energy is spread out over a larger area. This effect is compounded by the larger distance this light must travel through the atmosphere, allowing it to absorb more of this already limited heat."


Point being....it's predictable!

dartagnan said...

"I keep using the early 80's as reference, best of times, simple times, people will be out chopping wood to heat their homes, and killing deer to eat. You can do that here, those that don't want that lifestyle will move to the big city."

Let me guess ... you moved here in the late '70s.

Hate to break the news but Bend is NOT going to go back to a hunter-gatherer economy, no matter how much you may fantasize about it. Even in the mid-1980s (yes, I was here then too) that wasn't the way most people here lived.

dartagnan said...

"Will you allow that my premise still stands despite my scientific ignorance?"

By all means, sir.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The planet tilts 23°27' (23 degrees 27 minutes) and this causes different parts of the Earth's surface to be closer to the sun at various parts of its orbit.

So, all I have to do is "lean into it" and I'll be warm? Oh yes!

Duncan McGeary said...

dartagnan said..."By all means, sir."

Porthos: "This sash was a gift to me, from the Queen of America."

D'Artagnan: "There's no Queen of America!"

Porthos: "I beg to differ. We're on quite intimate terms, unless you can prove otherwise."

Timothy said...

>>"You may not be able to predict the weather, but you can predict winter will be colder. Why? Because we'll be farther from the sun."

It's OK, we're burning fossil fuels, which pushes us closer to the sun, which causes global warming.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

It's OK, we're burning fossil fuels, which pushes us closer to the sun, which causes global warming.

No, you've got it all wrong. As we dig & pump it out, the Earth starts to deflate, taking us farther from the Sun. Pretty soon it'll just be a bunch of people with picks & shovels.

Anonymous said...

dartagnan said...

"Will you allow that my premise still stands despite my ignorance?"


Did you buy any Bend RE during the last five years? Prove your ignorance.

Anonymous said...

Let me guess ... you moved here in the late '70s.

Hate to break the news but Bend is NOT going to go back to a hunter-gatherer economy, no matter how much you may fantasize about it.

*

I moved here in the mid 60's, and I have seen the hunter-gatherer lifestyle return twice, and I expect 2008 to be #3.

BENDBB said...

pederasts

Is than when a copperhead snakes up your ass?

Pederasty
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The term pederasty or paederasty can refer to a wide range of erotic practices, generally between adult and adolescent males. Pederastic relations have been variously described - as spiritual or materialistic, lawful or criminal, loving or commercial, compassionate or abusive, sexual or chaste – and have been documented from prehistory to modern times.

Rendered as 'age-structured homosexuality', it is, along with gender-structured relations and egalitarian relations, regarded as one of the three main subdivisions of homosexuality proposed by anthropologists.[1]

Anonymous said...

Duncan McGeary said...

Of course we can predict where the housing market is 'probably' going. That's what we've been doing, and I don't think we've been very far off, either.
*
Dunc,

Remember what I said yesterday, we're business men, we're used to playing with a full deck.
Most aren't.

Anonymous said...

Bendbust's posts about "pederasts" and "pee-pee" are making me wonder what he used to do during those good old days in Bend.

*

Me thinks that 'dartagnan and bendbb' are siamese twins that share the same cunt.

Rodney King said...

Can't we all just get along?

Anonymous said...

** RANT

I can't move, too old, and too stuck here, but I can stay and fight and drive all the calis out.


When men get older they spend more time contemplating the meaning of their lives and what they would like to accomplish with the few years left to them. Bendbust has found his purpose posting nasty comments about Californians. His words won't make any difference to anyone else, but they might make him feel that he's fighting the good fight for the lost days of his youth when men were men and houses were cheap. Drink a toast to nostalgia.

Bend Economy Man said...

Hate to break the news but Bend is NOT going to go back to a hunter-gatherer economy, no matter how much you may fantasize about it.

I moved here in the mid 60's, and I have seen the hunter-gatherer lifestyle return twice, and I expect 2008 to be #3.


I have to admit it's hard to imagine schools being empty during hunting season in 2008. It's hard to imagine families heating homes with wood-heat (which enviro regulations now forbid), bartering goods and services and cutting their own Xmas trees in the woods to save money, like regular middle-class folks did in the early '80s in Bend.

But then again, it's also hard to imagine what's supposed to prop up the local economy with RE out of the picture. With residential building activity and sales down more than 50% year-over-year, for me it's a head-scratcher how people are making ends meet right now, given that a couple years ago it seemed like everyone in Bend was a realtor, developer, contractor or mortgage originator.

Central Oregon RE sales in 2005 and 2006, if I remember right, were close to $1 billion each year. If I remember right, tourism brings in less than half that. So if sales are 50% off, how do 500 million dollars evaporate out of the local economy without serious pain? If anything, I'm impressed by this area's resilience.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Central Oregon RE sales in 2005 and 2006, if I remember right, were close to $1 billion each year. If I remember right, tourism brings in less than half that. So if sales are 50% off, how do 500 million dollars evaporate out of the local economy without serious pain? If anything, I'm impressed by this area's resilience.

Those in RE watched the money pile up the past few years. It's just simply a matter of time before Cent OR's burn rate takes them down. There's NO RESILIENCE here... it's just evaporating. It'll be gone soon.

Anonymous said...

couple years ago it seemed like everyone in Bend was a realtor, developer, contractor or mortgage originator. - bem

*

I know I have been repeating that for months always got a laugh "No way in hell is RE... 50% of the econ". ... The fact is discretionary spending is going to drop like a rock.

Nobody I know this winter is going to buy a season pass @ mt-b.

Old timers CAN chop wood, we still live in old homes, hell 1/2 my nieghbors burn in the winter, sure those new homes have to buy $300/mo for heat, and thats for 1200sqft, what about the +5,000???

I have been talking about this over&over, we're in a time when +50% is used to pay your home, and now +30% is for fuel. Something has to give when their is NO income.

( Last US trans cost I saw were 35% of income is spent on trans in US )

Again these new homes that don't support wood heat, those folks are going to be cold.

Our 1/2 billion tourist dollars will be impacted by the begging, as I have predicted there will be MUCH begging, you'll see whole familys begging @ walmart, instead of one old vietnam-vet. This will not be good for tourism.

The RE profession in total I believe is +50% of Bend, many are moving on, and going back to the prior career elsewhere.

Those new mcMansions out in netherlands that don't have wood heat and that are over +1200 sq-ft are doomed. Deer mice equals Hanta-Virus, and that don't sell well in the long term.

Our folks used to tell us the depression made Americans strong, I expect once again that Bend becomes strong, and besides ALL THE FUCKING get rich quick BIG-SUV folk will be leaving this COLD winter.

Anonymous said...

Those in RE watched the money pile up the past few years.

*

Most I know put it ALL back in the game, there are VERY few savers, that is why the absence of zero-down has killed everything.

NOBODY has cash, HELOC is how things are working now and credit-card is exploding.

The majority of our RE industry prayed for a summer recovery, now that it has passed, they will move on this winter.

Cruise around any of the +2Mi out mcMansion developments, you'll not see many lights on this winter, because ALL the homes are owned as second homes, and NOBODY can afford a winter vacation.

Yeh, there are the folks over in Iraq killing baby's for +$100K/year, but not many of them are sending checks to Bend.

Anonymous said...

Bendbust has found his purpose posting nasty comments about Californians.
*
I have been playing POLITICS for +40 years in Oregon.

The pen is mightier than the sword.

When I was in my 20's old geezers got me thinking right. Its my vision to pay back the BIG perspective of Oregon History.

I pick my wars carefully, in my day I have brought a LOT of politicians down. I have no beef with any in Bend. Here its the water thats contaminated by greed.

I think that the press is completely irrelevant, we here are leading the press. Just keep up the work, and enjoy your beer.

Remember life is short. Go hiking, biking, walking, .... Enjoy Bend, protect Bend, and remind everyone that Bend doesn't have to look like a fucking California strip mall.

This debate is old, but I'll repeat it again. Our detractors MUST all leave, but we old timers can stay we have no debt, didn't play the game.

I want to say another thing, think about the kid yesterday in Florida who asked Kerry about "Skull&Bones", and the "election" that put Shrub/Dubya in power he got tased. We are in FULL on NAZI times, thus thank god we're anonymous in these times, 20 years ago we used to have to thump our chests 24/7 in Salem.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

From Duncan:

One observation I'd like to make right off the top: Old Oregon and Washington are still there in the rural and small towns. Every road you go down, there are people out there. It doesn't look anything like the life you see in the Movies and T.V. So you find out things like, that the hills above Sutherlin and Sublimity, (the Silver Falls area), are packed with tree farms, hillside after hillside.

And if Bend thinks it's unique in it's outdoor life, it's anything but. There are recreational areas everywhere in eastern Washington and Oregon, and all over rural western Oregon and Washington.


And then:

Hate to break the news but Bend is NOT going to go back to a hunter-gatherer economy, no matter how much you may fantasize about it.

I moved here in the mid 60's, and I have seen the hunter-gatherer lifestyle return twice, and I expect 2008 to be #3.


Right... I'm not sure we'll go back to trapping our own beaver skin mittens or anything, but Subsistence Living is happening all around Bend. Used to be happening here. Bend has made such huge strides, that I'm sure it's unrecognizable to people who were here 30 years ago, but the "hunter-gather" mentality is all around us. There are many (if not most) surrounding little towns that are full of people barely scraping by.

I drove thru Seneca (between John Day & Burns), and man you wanna see a place whose existence is really a miracle, it's Seneca. I'm not quite sure what is keeping this place alive. I think I read once that Burns was considered The Middle Of Nowhere... ain't got nothin' on Seneca. I loved it.

If you think subsistence living is a thing of the past, you need to get out of town more. And considering that maybe half or more of Cent OR's economy is "fake" (IMO), it's anyones guess what would become of this place when it's all evaporated. Probably just "depressed", but that'd turn quite a few back to practices that many consider "hunter-gather". Hell, hunter-gather is gaining traction on China Hat Rd everyday.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Shit, there seems to be this assumption that "Hunter-Gather" would be a shitty lifestyle, but I'd love it. Killin' shit & eating it... man that'd be great. A garden. A little dinky cabin, wood burning stove, middle of ass nowhere.

What's weird is I don't feel like I have enough money to Live Poor. How F'd up is that? I'm not rich enough to live poor. Maybe cuz I equate living poor to a permanent vacation.

dartagnan said...

"Shit, there seems to be this assumption that "Hunter-Gather" would be a shitty lifestyle, but I'd love it."

You'd love it for maybe a month, and then you'd be miserable. Very, very few live that way out of choice.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

You'd love it for maybe a month, and then you'd be miserable. Very, very few live that way out of choice.

Probably true. Maybe why I feel I'd have to be relatively well-off to even attempt it... I'd want to be able to "opt-out" at any time...

Anonymous said...

But then again, it's also hard to imagine what's supposed to prop up the local economy with RE out of the picture. With residential building activity and sales down more than 50% year-over-year, for me it's a head-scratcher how people are making ends meet right now, given that a couple years ago it seemed like everyone in Bend was a realtor, developer, contractor or mortgage originator.

Sales volume is down 25% year-over-year, not 50%, and saying "a couple years ago it seemed like everyone in Bend was [in real estate]" is like saying it seemed like everyone in Portland worked for Nike.

Central Oregon RE sales in 2005 and 2006, if I remember right, were close to $1 billion each year. If I remember right, tourism brings in less than half that. So if sales are 50% off, how do 500 million dollars evaporate out of the local economy without serious pain? If anything, I'm impressed by this area's resilience.

Real estate sales aren't off 50%, and only a small portion of the total sales volume dollars contribute to the local economy -- 6% for realtors, a percent or so for mortgage brokers, and of course developers/contractors only make money on new construction not on existing homes which are the majority of sales. On the other hand, almost all tourist dollars stay in the local economy.

Duncan McGeary said...

I believe the BEM is right about 50% down in the two year window he specified.

Look around you. Use your common sense. Real Estate is the tail wagging the dog around here.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

only a small portion of the total sales volume dollars contribute to the local economy -- 6% for realtors, a percent or so for mortgage brokers

Hell, a year ago the RE juggernaut was claiming they were the tail wagging the dog. Today... as usual... All Is Well In Bend, Slowdown Very Temporary, RE Just a Marginal Piece Of Total Economy, Amenities Galore, Hiking, Biking, Kool-Aid, Just Close Your Eyes & Believe, Blah, Blah, Blah....

In Bend: Whatever is Sucking Ass is "barely on the radar". And notice local media is playing along... as RE implodes locally, we get the business section of the Bulletin reporting on "HELIUM PRICES" (oh yeah... THAT'S BIG NEWS), a woman who bakes cookies in her kitchen, and today? RIGHT: The Weiner Mobile for Deschutes Brewery. THAT THERE IS BIG NEWS.

I thought maybe The Bulletin had turned a corner regarding Editorial Ethics, and they have. THEY ARE JUST IGNORING BENDS RE IMPLOSION. I guess that's better than lying about it, which is what they used to do... and still do occasionally, although I think they are hesitant due to unnamed forums calling them to the mat on UNMITIGATED BULLSHIT.

When the HORROR of Q3 comes out in early Spet (at least that's when the good news would have come out), look for The New Party Line:

What Is Happening In Bend Real Estate IS Not One Bit Unusual. The Whole Country Is Falling Apart. Only Nuts Would Think That It Wouldn't EVENTUALLY Impact Us. Nothing Unusual Though. Nothing To See Here. You Can Continue To Buy Bend RE. If Not Here, Then Where? Amenities. Bikes. Views. Amenities. Ummm... Views. Amenities. BUY HOMES GAT DAMN IT! Our advertising Revenue is at stake here you worthless FUCKERS! BUY SOMETHING! NOW!

Anonymous said...

I believe the BEM is right about 50% down in the two year window he specified.

It's not a matter of belief, it's a fact that sales volume is down about 25% year-over-year and less than 25% 2007-over-2005.

When the HORROR of Q3 comes out in early Spet (at least that's when the good news would have come out), look for The New Party Line:

Spet? When is that? Don't the Q3 real estate sales statistics come out in early October? Let's revisit this conversation in early October and we'll see how much 2007 sales volume is down compared to 2006 (and I believe it won't be anywhere close to 50%).

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Sales volume is down 25% year-over-year, not 50%,

From COR PDF:

Bend unit volume: -25.83%

Damn, you're RIGHT! Where's our Kool & The Gang "Celebration" CD? DOWN 25%! That's GREAT NEWS!

Hmmm... let's look around while we're at it.

Redmond: -42.91%
La Pine: -53.73%
Sisters: -37.84%
Prineville: -50.31%
Jeff County: -45.32%

You're right. There are some REAL GOOD TIMES in local real estate markets.

Duncan McGeary said...

I'm not sure what statistics you're looking at, but the Bulletin's latest statistics, from my memory, in the most current month, were in the 260's in 2005, and in the 130's this year. Do you have different stats?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Let's revisit this conversation in early October and we'll see how much 2007 sales volume is down compared to 2006 (and I believe it won't be anywhere close to 50%).

I'll be here... and there's very little to "bet" about.

Per COR PDF:
Q3-2006 YTD sales volume was 1,675.

Q2-2007 YTD volume was 850.

David Foster has YTD volume ending Aug 31: 1,106

We "exceeded" -50% in Q2. Given an estimate of 125 sales in SEPT (yeah, I know typo), that puts Q3-2007 at 1,231, or about -27%. Prices will BE DOWN. So $ volume will be worse, maybe -30%.

Are you saying that's A GOOD THING? I know, I know... you feel the need to dwell on -50% forever... but realistically -30% is where we'll be. I just want to hear the UPSIDE of that, without reference to the mathematically SOUND, but still weird, "IT AIN'T NO -50%!".

"RE down 90%!"

"WELP, AT LEAST IT AIN'T -95%!"

Duncan McGeary said...

And oh, by the way, if you have any interest in future trends, the Bulletin as of this Sunday, September 16, was showing August building permits down 62.8 from a year ago. I don't think they DARE publish the permits from 2005.

But here's a little quote from the New York Times on Nov. 27, 2005 (Can a City Grow Too Fast?)

As of August 2005, the city had issued 1,467 building permits for single-family homes, more than twice the number of permits issued in major urban centers like Seattle and San Diego.

"We estimate there's a new family moving in every hour and a half," said Robert Mathias, Bend's building department supervisor. "It's pretty staggering."

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

From the Bulletin, and maybe more relevant:

The number of Deschutes County building permits dropped sharply to a monthly average of 149, a 48 percent decrease from second quarter 2006 and hitting the lowest pace since the first quarter of 1997.

Anonymous said...

When there is no new news, recycle the old themes ad nauseam. This is BendBubbleBlog2 motto. This entire blog is unnecessary and redundant. Bend Economy Man was right to shut down his blog since he'd already said it all.

Anonymous said...

Given an estimate of 125 sales in SEPT (yeah, I know typo), that puts Q3-2007 at 1,231, or about -27%. Prices will BE DOWN. So $ volume will be worse, maybe -30%.

Thanks for the estimate of what the YTD number sold and sales volume will be at the end of Q3, that's probably as good a guess as any right now.

I know, I know... you feel the need to dwell on -50% forever... but realistically -30% is where we'll be.

The people dwelling on -50% are BEM, duncan, and bendbust. Let's use real statistics instead of made-up ones.

The number of Deschutes County building permits dropped sharply to a monthly average of 149, a 48 percent decrease from second quarter 2006 and hitting the lowest pace since the first quarter of 1997.

Now this is A GOOD THING. Finally a sign of sanity that builders are cutting back, because that's what it's going to take to restore balance to the real estate market in Bend.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

When there is no new news, recycle the old themes ad nauseam. This is BendBubbleBlog2 motto. This entire blog is unnecessary and redundant. Bend Economy Man was right to shut down his blog since he'd already said it all.

"Kool-Aid spill on Aisle 9! PLEASE SIR, DO NOT SLURP KOOL-AID OFF THE FLOOR!"

Advice: If you don't like what's here, LEAVE. It's a fairly simple decision.

"I DON'T LIKE THIS MOVIE EVERYONE. WE ALL HAVE TO LEAVE! EVERYONE, PLEASE STAND UP & WALK OUT. YES, I AM A MYOPIC ASS WHO CAN'T SEE BEYOND THEIR OWN NOSE. BUT STILL, WE ALL MUST LEAVE CUZ I HAPPEN TO NOT LIKE IT."

Duncan McGeary said...

Based on some of the more recent comments on this blog (I sure wish some of these people would at least pick a nickname so I'd know who I'm addressing) our work has just begun.

I think it's going to take at least a year before the denial phase is over.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

This entire blog is unnecessary and redundant.

Right. Absolutely NOTHING has changed in RE since BEM shutdown his blog. NOTHING! Wow, you're right.

Subprime meltdown? That ain't nut'n.

By this persons logic, The Bulletin should shutdown. Ain't nut'n changed. The Source? Shut'er down. Hell, let's shutdown ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox and all broadcast media. Wait, wait. MEDIA is the problem. Well, not friendly media, the BAD media, like this blog.

My friend, go to Zimbabwe & take over. Robert Mugabe did, and shutdown all the countries media he didn't like. Things aren't working out so well cuz he's a crazed maniac, but hell you & he may get along.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The number of Deschutes County building permits dropped sharply to a monthly average of 149, a 48 percent decrease from second quarter 2006 and hitting the lowest pace since the first quarter of 1997.

Now this is A GOOD THING.


You're obviously NOT a builder.

dartagnan said...

What Is Happening In Bend Real Estate IS Not One Bit Unusual. The Whole Country Is Falling Apart.

That's true, actually. The national economy is a house of cards. Greenspan was able to maintain an illusion of prosperity for a while through cheap credit, but the party's over. It's just that the hangover will be worse in Bend than in most other places.

Anonymous said...

It's just that the hangover will be worse in Bend than in most other places.
*
Bend is the MOST over-valued in America.

That says a lot.

It's ALL because OUR wonderful city council OVER marketed this little desert town. Vast sums of taxpayer money were squandered so that well connected people could make vast sums of money on the RE rally.

What in the hell does the city council now do for an encore?

Hire MORE PR, but to sell what? How about a light rail, or electric train for Bend??

How about light-rail from downtown to Juniper-Ridge, that would be a way to spend $50 Million.

Anonymous said...

The number of Deschutes County building permits dropped sharply to a monthly average of 149, a 48 percent decrease from second quarter 2006 and hitting the lowest pace since the first quarter of 1997.

*

Great syncs in with my MAGIC reference point for todays BUSTED bull, note that in 1998 you could buy a real nice new home inside Bend on the west side for $120k.

$120k in todays dollars would be about $160k, and that's exactly 4X of our $40k/yr house-hold income (wiki).

Anonymous said...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

This entire blog is unnecessary and redundant.

*

This BLOG is driving the status-quo absolutely out of their fucking mind.

Note they have the BULL and the SORE by the ball's, and NOTHING is ever said.

Let is be said that this BLOG is the ONLY FREE-SPEECH in Bend.

For those that cannot handle the truth, stay with the BULL or SORE.

Anonymous said...

. Bend Economy Man was right to shut down his blog since he'd already said it all.

*

It's NOT really clear why BEM shut his blog down, burn out? His method of reviewing all submissions is ALWAYS a pain in the ass, ...

In time DOH will get burn't out, but he's clearly having fun.

I would be the first to fucking say with respect to the issue of REDUNDANCY I wish we didn't have to pete & repete. But its a sad fact that you must tell folks, tell that what you told them, and then tell them again, and then tell them why you told them.

We're up against ALL the PR in BEND, the BEST fucking PR that money can BUY, but guess what? FREE PR MERCS always WIN.

bendbutthole said...

The people dwelling on -50% are BEM, duncan, and bendbust. Let's use real statistics instead of made-up ones.

*

I have said over&over "medians don't mean shit", anybody can say whatever they want. I think dunc, and BEM are correct.

Here is my reasoning, FUCK MEDIANS, what matters is the SMELL test.

In MY hood homes that were listed in 2005 for $490k and didn't sell are now listed at $280k, and they're still NOT selling, IN MY hood a CASH buyer can pick any home he wants for $250k. Thus IN MY HUMBLE FUCKING OPINION we're already down -50%.

But whatever, if IHTBYB & bendbb (sic) want to focus on data from the HO's use that data, I prefer seat of the pants any day of the week. This is why I think that me & dunc have in common we're POST hard-core businessmen, and I too have been in business for fucking ever, and in order to survive, you must ALWAYS use your business as a bellwether, and watch every thing that happens.

Anonymous said...

Now this is A GOOD THING. Finally a sign of sanity that builders are cutting back, because that's what it's going to take to restore balance to the real estate market in Bend.

*

Builders are NOT sane, they simply can no longer obtain money to build on SPEC, you MUST now have the house SOLD before you can build, thus the easy money piggy bank is empty.

Pleeeeeze let's not give the builder's credit, if they could still get money for condo's ( which was shut off in april 07 ), they would be building condo's. The city would love to be selling ton's of permits. The ONLY reason things are slowing down, is that after Feb 07, and EVERYTHING changed. New Rules. Investors KNOW that putting their money into BEND is a CHUMP INVESTMENT.

Game Over.

Anonymous said...

While I agree that the Hummer is NOT a truck for a working guy, there is the gang-bang image, tinted windows, lots of room for the Ho's.

So very Californian, which is why its despised in this forum.



Funny but I've been driving around Cali and there seem to be far more Hummers, Escalades, etc in Bend than in Cali. Cali drivers are heading toward smaller cars.

Anonymous said...

I thought maybe The Bulletin had turned a corner regarding Editorial Ethics, and they have. THEY ARE JUST IGNORING BENDS RE IMPLOSION.
*
They probably caught hell for the HAYDEN article the other day, don't worry there will be more straight-shooters.

Regarding the number 6% of Bend is RE, that is probably true today, because EVERY realtor I know is saying their income is down to 1/4, and they're working 4X harder than they have in there career. Thus it would be SAFE to say that perhaps two years ago RE might have been +20%, but it SURE as hell isn't now.

Like BEM said the other day, and for me its just GUT, RE,MTG,TITLE, ... Construction, Rock/Gravel, shit thats the essence of this town. That said commercial is still going great.

Remember guys we're only year one, and this is +5 years minimum.

Anonymous said...

Funny but I've been driving around Cali and there seem to be far more Hummers, Escalades, etc in Bend than in Cali. Cali drivers are heading toward smaller cars.

*

I agree, this gets back to BEND, everything here is BIG, BIG homes, BIG dicks, BIG boobs, BIG cars, ...

Hell gas is up, I would concur that calis would be the first to DUMP those BIG-PIGS, and then THEY all get shipped up to bend, after they get dumped at wholesale, and flipped up here at retail.

Its the kind of people that were attracted to the PR marketing campaign of BEND, also NOTE our 24 golf courses, GOLFERS like BIG, BIG EGO's BIG-DICKS, and BIG cars.

Bend has become an OASIS for BIG.

Anonymous said...

So very Californian, which is why its despised in this forum.

Funny but I've been driving around Cali and there seem to be far more Hummers, Escalades, etc in Bend than in Cali.

*

The hummer has been around what ten years? First calis like Schwarzenegger had them years ago, a lot of Hollywood people, they're not cool anymore in cali. But they're cali in image to the rest of us.

I think the point that has been attempted here, is OUR little round-abouts are too small for these BIG-DICKS SUV's, and they're running over peds, bikes, ... The cali thing is largely image, but generally its an image that people know exactly what you mean.

Note the Bend car of the 80's was the gutless little 4by4 subaru, same in pdx, nobody in cali would want to suby, ever, ...

Anonymous said...

dartagnan said...

What Is Happening In Bend Real Estate IS Not One Bit Unusual. The Whole Country Is Falling Apart.

That's true, actually. The national economy is a house of cards.

*

We live in the Best of Times.

Life is Good.

Anonymous said...

I'll make a prediction.

In my humble opinion we're down right now -50%, at least in my hood.

Eventually nice little homes will fall to $160k, that will be DOWN 70% from the Spring 2006 HIGH ( $500k ).

Note, we're currently in a RE paralysis, buyers can't get money, and sellers can't drop the price.

Only cash talks. Those that can drop for CASH will drop.

Trouble is MOST folks in Bend during the last five years bought for nuttin-down, and thus cannot drop. Also there are NO new buyers, because everyone that could buy bought 2 or 3.

RE paralysis, just like 1932 post great-depression.

In the next 2+ years the sellers will gradually lose their homes to the banks, and the bank will sell for pennys on the dollar.

Note, these houses of course will have gone to SHIT.

So, I go back to MY nice little clean home that is ouccupied and maintained, and the OWNER paid perhaps $15k->$120K pre-1998.

Quite happy to sell for $160k cash.

ALL those newbies that bought Bend post 2000 are FUCKED.

Anonymous said...

Note, we're currently in a RE paralysis, buyers can't get money, and sellers can't drop the price.

Paralysis no, slowdown yes. The number of houses sold in Bend YTD is the same as the number sold YTD in 2003, not that long ago.

Anonymous said...

In my humble opinion we're down right now -50%, at least in my hood.

Eventually nice little homes will fall to $160k, that will be DOWN 70% from the Spring 2006 HIGH ( $500k ).




I am asking a queston here and not beinging argumentative..... are we assumong people will stop moving to Bend? If prices drop that and building materials level off (they are currently rising) How will builders survive? If prices drop that much there is no way a builder can compete with resale, and if this is the case those holding land are screwed? Is this what many of you anticipate?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

are we assumong people will stop moving to Bend?

Maybe not right now, but much of Bends attraction has been as Ground Zero for a bunch of flippers. There are so SO many unneeded homes in this town that were built solely as Flipper Bait. Drive around, this place is overloaded with vacant homes. A lot of people moved here only to jump into this Ponzi Scheme. And Bends Flipper Bait driven Ponzi Scheme is The Largest (as a % of the local economy) in this Country, and probably one of the greatest local RE bubbles we'll see in our lifetimes. When it busts, this places economy & population will deflate. Will people move here? Hell, people will be moving OUT of Bend, never to return.

How will builders survive?

Most won't. Big BK's gonna happen here soon.

the case those holding land are screwed?

This was a pure land rush. Building material inflation accounts for very little of the rise in homes around here. Bare land went berserk (along with builder margins). It'll also fall the hardest. Bare land is ALWAYS the highest "beta" RE you can buy. When everything else is going up, it goes WAY up. When all else is going down, it gets killed.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

How will builders survive?

Gotta remember, "builders" are more like knitting clubs than businesses. "Builders" spring into existence to do a job, then fold. If they do it well, the "project" might be 1 home... 5 homes... or 500 homes. But that doesn't change the fundamental fact that "builders" are just a loose association of "DUDES". "Building" isn't a "real business": it's a guy with a cell phone who can pick up Mexicans at Labor Ready. It's just a dude working.

"Builders" don't really "survive" or "die". They just get another job.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

How will builders survive?

Most won't. Big BK's gonna happen here soon.


BK's will happen to the guys who bought the RE bullshit. Guys who started spec-ing in a big way.

As a pure builder, it's almost impossible to go broke. That's like washing windows, and going broke. You've got a bucket, some soap & some rags. THAT can't go bust. Neither can a builder really, unless they start spec-ing. How do you go broke on cost+8%? Builders start going bust when they start spec-ing.

I'll bet there's lots of guys around here who made some major cash in the last few years, building 100's homes around here, who will end up going bust on their LAST 20 spec homes.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And if you haven't looked... check out the craigslist RSS feed at the top right. Things are getting to sound.. let's say "non-discretionary".

MUST SELL!

WILL LOOK AT ANY OFFER!

OWNER WILL TAKE BACK NOTE

WILL TRADE FOR LAND OR TRUCK

And a LOT of them have pics of vacant homes.

Told ya. First cold snap always take $10/sf right out...

Timothy said...

>>are we assumong people will stop moving to Bend?

I've lived in other cities which were "hot" (top ten growth rates in country)The heat invariably wears off. Nobody thinks it will happen, then all of the sudden it just does.

Anonymous said...

I agree that a 'builder' is a guy with a cell phone, that knows where to pick up mexicans in the AM.

That said the ones I know are having to drive to Pronghorn or farther for work, and its been that way for the past year.

One thing that can be said with these guys is they have a truck, they mostly came here in the last five years, and they'll leave once they can no longer work and pay for their bleeding on those 2 or 3 'homes' up at Awbrey.

The good news is they can move on, there's always some place building, hell its still a deal in New Orleans, people down there have insurance money, that's where I would go if I were young and needed work. "Follow the Hurricanes".

Anonymous said...

If prices drop that much there is no way a builder can compete with resale, and if this is the case those holding land are screwed? Is this what many of you anticipate?
*

Anybody that bought in the last 4-6 years is screwed. ALL the LAND in the area is OVER-PRICED. Most of this land was going for $100/ac 20 years ago, and now going for $1.6M.

$1.6M assuming 1/8 acre ,lots of today is $200k/lot, Its NOT going to a middle ground here -50%, its going to be -90%, the land is-was inherently worthless, thats why we called it the "Bad Lands".

Anybody HOLDING LAND is screwed that bought that fucking land in the last ten years.

Sure if you bought for under $1k/ac your ok, I have done the numbers on this a few months ago, thus we're now entering 'redundancy'.

Recently all over builders were paying $300k for a lot, note that just ten years ago a lot was $20k. Lot's have no value, its just dirt in the desert.

With so much inventory, there will be no building, we have a glut, we have years and years of GLUT.

This is WHY the banks are NO longer loaning money, this is why interest rates really don't matter, NOBODY wants to invest in BEND.

In the recent 'tulip mania' in Bend , builders bought a lot for $300k, put up a $200k ( shit shack ), and tried to sell them for $600k I talking custom spec here. There really weren't making money, but most assumed that they were going to a MILLION, everyone in this town assumed their shit-shack was going to a MILLION.

What is land worth?? It's ain't even worth $10k an acre and that would be $1200/lot. I figure the actual value of the desert land might be around $2k/acre, and that's still much higher than it was worth ten years ( $500/acre ).

MY favorite is Juniper Ridge, COST was 0.06 cents/acre and they're trying to sell it for $1.6M/acre. This is WHY the CITY has a hard-on for JR, they think everyone is going to get rich. Problem is the land is worth $2k/acre at best.

ANYBODY 'holding land' that was bought less than 8 years ago is fucked, this is why SMART builders were dumping their subdivisions a year ago. Those still hold lots or land are fucked.

Remember a ton of guys came into this town from afar and bought lots for $300k or over, just so they could be in the game. Today they're ALL FUCKED.

Anonymous said...

How will builders survive?

*

This is like saying will geese shit survive in the rain?


There will be more geese shit.

Builders are like Realtors, everyone that had genitals between their legs got into the game post 2001.

Today MOST will go back to the what they were doing before, and NOT in this town.

The ONLY realtors that will make it is those that didn't play the game, those that saved, and those that have been in the business +20 years that know cycles, and saw it coming ALL ELSE ARE FUCKED.

Think of it this way the girls were realtors, and the boyz builders, like is said here the cost of entry is zilch. Everybody got into the act, because you could sell a crap-shack for a lot of money. These same "un-educated' people will go back to their prior just as fast as they entered building/realty.

Is there really a loss here?

Is there anyone here that feels sorry for these fucking opportunists??

Anonymous said...

Note, we're currently in a RE paralysis, buyers can't get money, and sellers can't drop the price.

Paralysis no, slowdown yes. The number of houses sold in Bend YTD is the same as the number sold YTD in 2003, not that long ago.

*

There is NO money, BEND is jumbo, SOLD is NOT fucking CLOSED.

The BANKS are no longer financing JUMBO.

I refuse to believe that current sales in CASH are that of finance in 2003 this smells rotten to me, is and is ONE more classic example of why this FUCKING data cannot be trusted.

The realtors I know are seeing -90% in closings, as that's how they get paid. A sale is NOT a fucking close. They're telling me that this is the slowest they have ever seen in their +20 year careers.


Even in 2003 homes didn't sit that long, now they sit forever. I think that MYTH that homes are closing today as fast as they fucking closed in 2003, and withe the same volume is a fucking MYTH.

BAD fucking data, perhaps it needs to be massaged for a tenth fucking time, perhaps this time using Cobol.

*

p.s. RE paralysis is when the sellers don't drop, and buyers don't buy, and thats what we have today. Sellers don't drop, because most of them have NO equity. Buyers don't BUY because they don't have a down-payment. We're in a RE paralysis.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

These same "un-educated' people will go back to their prior just as fast as they entered building/realty.

I talked to a few scumbag lazy-ass Realtors about selling my house a few years ago. One guy said his main qualification that put him ahead of almost everyone else in town, was he had actually gone to college. He then proceeded to tell me stories about how most Realtors in town didn't even finish high school, and could barely add. Some had a policy of NEVER attending closings, because then clients would figure out they could barely read.

This guys claim to fame was he could read & add.

Anonymous said...

Some had a policy of NEVER attending closings, because then clients would figure out they could barely read.

This guys claim to fame was he could read & add.


*

Yeh, this reminds a few years ago when I was playing around with a refi on a property, and a guy showed up to close. I think it was county-wide, he actually came to my home to sign.

He pulled out the papers and I had been told that the it was 5% fixed,... The papers said 18%APR FLOAT. THE FUCKER then told me that that meant 5%fixed. There was 2 inches of paper, he couldn't believe I was reading it, inferred that NOBODY had ever read the shit ever in his long six month career ( ex builder in his 50's ).

The guy really believed that paper meant nothing, he assured me that it was a 5% fixed loan, and that all their paper said 18%APR-FLOAT for 'standardization'.

I showed him the door. This guy was driving a shitty pick-up truck and was a slob, he didn't know anything about mortgage. Yet country-wide had sent him out for a signature and drive-by appraisal.

I showed him the door and he got very angry, and said that nobody had ever refused to sign, and that I was an asshole. Yes, I'm an asshole. It thing there are just too many nice people out there. This is why nice guys finish last.

Yes, there are some real stupid folks out there, but this gets back to those +$1M homes, up there those are some stupid people. The WHOLE Bend tulip-mania is based on stupidity. THE WHOLE bend city council is based on stupidity.

DO you all note that our BEND CITY COUNCIL has NEVER once read anything they have signed, and they have admitted this in public.

It's safe to say that +90% of the public don't read&add, this is WHY I don't watch TV, and I think that TV has a large part to do with the problem, they're all waiting for it to come out on TV, why bother to read.

dartagnan said...

Headline at the top of The BULL's bidness page today says "Area leaders agree: 'Business is Good'

The story, however, doesn't support the glowingly optimistic headline. Mike Schmidt says "Bend is doing reasonably well." That's as close as anybody quoted in the story comes to saying "business is good."

The BULL is back to peddling its usual bull again.

Steve said...

There is NO money, BEND is jumbo, SOLD is NOT fucking CLOSED.

More patented bendbust BS!

The YTD Sold statistics are closed sales.

Timothy said...

Nobody wants your Jumbo...

JustQuotes: Not Great News For The Jumbo Market

“The U.S. commercial paper market unexpectedly shrank for a sixth week, extending the biggest slump in at least seven years and signaling the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts haven't drawn investors back to short-term debt.”

“Commercial paper is bought by money market funds and mutual funds that invest in short-term debt securities. In asset-backed commercial paper, the cash is used to buy mortgages, bonds, credit card and trade receivables, as well as car loans. Some of the programs are backed by subprime loans, issued to borrowers with poor credit or high debt.”

“The buyers' freeze shut out borrowers including mortgage lenders Countrywide Financial Corp. and Thornburg Mortgage Inc. as well as GMAC LLC and investment company Cheyne Finance Plc.”

Timothy said...

>>The Naples News. “The downturn in the Southwest Florida real estate market should reverse itself by next year, a national economist told a gathering of Naples area Realtors and brokers Thursday.”

>>“‘The recovery will not be a robust recovery … but nonetheless it will be an improvement,’ said Lawrence Yun, senior economist at the National Association of Realtors.

Isn't it cute how they call him a "national economist" instead of "paid Real Estate pimp."

Anonymous said...

Historically property values rise. Over the past 60 years there have been a handful of occasions where the media has hammered the real estate market with negative commentary. At those times real estate seemed to be the worst possible investment. But shortly after the “bad news” had saturated the market, healthy appreciation returned. Every person I know would love to have purchased real estate back in history when the news was bleak, the buyers on the sidelines and the sellers out in full force, like today.



Allow me to turn back the clock for a moment to drive home my point:

“The prices of houses seem to reached a plateau, and there is reasonable expectancy that prices will decline.”

- Time Magazine -1947



“Houses cost too much for the mass market. Today’s average price is around $8000-out of the reach for two-thirds of all buyers”

- Science Digest, 1948



“The goal owning a home seems to be getting beyond the reach of more and more Americans. The typical new house today cost about $28,000”

-Business Week, 1969



“You might well be suspicious of common wisdom that tells you don’t wait buy now”

-NEA Journal, -1970





“The median price of a home today is approaching $50,000… Housing experts predict price rises in the future won’t be great”

-Nation Business, 1977



“The era of easy profits in real estate may be drawing to a close”

-Money magazine, 1981



“Most economists agree … a home will become little more than a roof and a tax deduction, certainly not the lucrative investment it was through much of the 1980s”

-Money Magazine, 1986



“Financial planner agree that houses will continue to be a poor investment”

-Kiplinger’s Personal Financial Magazine, 1993



“A home is where the bad investment is”

-San Francisco Examiner, 1996



With all the historical bad press, the real estate market has continued to appreciate despite the media’s doom-and-gloom reporting. Check out these numbers!



National real estate values have appreciated:



88% Since 1996

340% Since 1977

685% Since 1969

2650% Since 1948



Just as the market slowed down it can speed up again!

Anonymous said...

88% Since 1996

340% Since 1977

685% Since 1969

2650% Since 1948


Nice try. Ever hear of inflation? Keep whistling in the dark, realter boy.

Timothy said...

Long term RE appreciation after inflation is somewhere around 1%. It's not the best investment.

Most people who own their own homes do see nice appreciation due to leverage.

Leverage is a mother on the way down.

For a good discussion of long-series housing, see Irrational Exuberance 2nd Edition.

Duncan McGeary said...

Is there some Real Estate crib sheet? No way you researched that yourself. Do some of your own research, and I might have a bit more respect for what you're saying.

Duncan McGeary said...

In some ways, though, I'm glad to start hearing from the 'blame the messenger' folk. Without them, I was wondering if we had even really started the process of adjustment to reality.

So this is a good sign.

Timothy said...

Goldman Sachs, as usual, kicked ass this quarter. How did they do it with the subprime market going to hell?

Easy. They were short mortgages.

That's right. They bet against one of the businesses they are in. And apparently, they did well more than a hedge. It was an outright bet against mortgages.

Bend Economy Man said...

On the one hand I suppose it's a good thing we have bubble-deniers re-entering the debate in this forum.

I mean, it's not an echo-chamber we're looking for here, is it? Are we ready to defend our theories or are we a virtual club of like-minded individuals who've come to exchange inside jokes and arcane references like a bunch of Trekkies?

But then again, these deniers drive me nuts and it's exasperating--for me--to debate whether the ground is crumbling under the Bend RE market, like it's running down from the edge of a cinder pit. There's an inside reference for Bendites - there's only one way you can run on a scree slope, and most of us know it.

To me all the stats that "back up" the notion that things are OK, not bad, just going back to normal after a beautiful runup, getting ready to settle in a permanently high plateau, are just obfuscation.

I know my handle's Bend Economy Man, and I should be ready to dive into the stats debate, and when I had my own blog I sometimes rued changing my focus from just bubble-related posts. But the reason I like discussing the economy is because at times, those of us who apply horse-sense and, well, a "deeper understanding of how things work" for lack of a better phrase, are right, and those who wield the stats and parse the figures are wrong.

I was thinking today, watching the US dollar reach parity with the Canadian dollar, that Alan Greenspan was this kind of economist. One argument is that he laid the groundwork for all the problems we're seeing now. But I was thinking that he was somehow able to portray an underlying confidence in the US economy that Bernanke hasn't been able to do.

In a way, the nail-biting that surrounded this recent interest rate cut created its own self-fulfilling prophesy -- the Fed board members held off as long as they possibly could because they were afraid of dollar devaluation and runaway inflation, and that's what might be happening now. Greenspan, on the other hand, said "fuck it," dropped rates fast, kept them there, and somehow the markets took this in stride.

It was like Greenspan wasn't worried that the US economy (or the US dollar) was a fragile thing that would crumple in the face of macroeconomic policy. And the economy followed suit - around the world, against what the "numbers" or "stats" might otherwise indicate would be smart, people and governments hoarded dollars and gobbled up US debt. Bernanke, on the other hand, wields the interest-rate tool as if the slightest misstep or mistimed move might bring the house of cards down, and markets are believing him, treating the US economy as if it just might BE a house of cards, and shitting on the dollar and shunning our debt.

I guess what I'm saying is that it's one thing for leaders, like Bernanke or the RE complex in Bend, to parrot niceties like "fundamentally the economy is great," but when with their actions they treat the tools at their disposal like the dials on a reactor core (Bernanke) or pull projects and clearly start hunkering down (Bend RE complex, e.g., Brooks Resources), it neuters their message.

Anyhoo, I seriously digress.

Back to the deniers - my view is that "you don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows." The anecdotal evidence and common-sense wisdom presented by the bubbleheads on this blog has, recently at least, been proven FAR superior in predictive value to the meaningless stats ("no worries, we're just down to 2003 levels"), realty-office talking points ("3000% nominal home price appreciation since 1948" "historically low interest rates") and Baby Boomer migration theories ("one thing's for sure: people will never stop moving here in droves") of the deniers.

Bend Economy Man said...

For the record, I'm not saying that Bernanke should have cut rates fast. I actually think he should have held them steady, against market expectations, and made markets think he knows something they don't (like the inscrutable Greenspan).

My admiration for Greenspan's rate cut comes from the idea that, say after the tech crash and 9/11 he had inched down the Fed funds rate, cautiously testing the waters - it might have raised serious questions about the soundness of the US economy. His ballsy moves engendered confidence. My view on whether he set the stage for the current debacle is "what's past is prologue," and while we wait to see how his approach goes down in history, all we're hearing is coulda-woulda 20/20 hindsight speculation.

George of the Jungle said...

The anecdotal evidence and common-sense wisdom presented by the bubbleheads on this blog has, recently at least, been proven FAR superior in predictive value to the meaningless stats

George agree, always better to listen to anecdotes that reinforce what you already know to be true rather than statistics that prove otherwise.

Bend Economy Man said...

As far as this town is concerned, I think it's time to stop the "let's see if the market turns around" approach and get some ballsy moves going.

I mean the City Council getting the message out that they know the party's over and they're developing a new approach based on the new reality.

I mean the city building and planning departments aggressively cutting staff and making sure, on a quarter-to-quarter basis, that the departments pay for themselves like they're supposed to.

I mean totally revisiting Juniper Ridge and coming to grips with the fact that that land isn't a $500M asset to be used to enrich a few pals and "visionaries" and MAYBE incidentally create some jobs, but is a tool for diversifying the town's economy. I'm talking about some freakin' land grants and property tax holidays to companies, preferably industrial companies, who want to set up shop and bring X number of jobs into the community. Forget a "high-tech multi-use corporate campus centered around a world-class educational institution." NEVER GONNA HAPPEN, not in this decade - that train's left the station. We don't have a bunch of unemployed software engineers and college professors in town - that was to attract the theoretical New Bendites, much smarter and more advanced than the Actual Bendites. We ARE going to have a bunch of unemployed contractors and former RE complex employees in need of a job. Those are the Real Bendites, the ones that the City Council supposedly represents. Why would people not competent to implement a visionary project waste city resources on an idea that's intended primarily to benefit people who don't even live here yet?

Anonymous said...

I got say, I would love to buy into this therory that people will stop moving to Bend, but everyine that visits me either has plans to move or wants to move and even with inflated 2006 prices, they can afford to live here EASILY and telecommute 3 or 4 days a month.

I dont own a home in Bend, so prices comming down for me is wonderful, and agree thjere is a shit load of inventory and prices still need a reality check.

BUT PEOPLE NOT MOVING HERE??

Where else do you go on West Coast if you wanta resort lifestyle?

Timothy said...

>>Are we ready to defend our theories or are we a virtual club of like-minded individuals who've come to exchange inside jokes and arcane references like a bunch of Trekkies?

Please. No need to be derogatory with the "Trekkies" comment. You made my tribble hiss.

It's "Trekkers."

Anonymous said...

COLUBMIA AIRCRAFT - FAR SALE MALAYSIAN GOVERNMENT CALLING IT QUITS ON BEND

*

Cessna in talks to buy Oregon planemaker

Cessna Aircraft is in discussions about a potential acquisition of Oregon-based Columbia Aircraft and its line of high-performance piston aircraft, industry sources say.

Nothing has been signed between the two companies, an industry source said today.

Cessna spokesman Bob Stangarone said the company had no comment. Columbia officials couldn't immediately be reached for comment.

Columbia's line of aircraft would augment Cessna's current single-engine line manufactured in Independence.

Columbia Aircraft, formerly known as Lancair, is one of the largest employers in Bend, Ore. It builds composite airplanes.

Cessna is one of at least three parties interested in the company, according to a report by trade publication Aero-News Network.

Anonymous said...

Columbia Aircraft is almost entirely owned by the Malaysian government (yes, a foreign government!). That's why the CEO's name is Mr. Wan Majid. The Malaysian government has sunked millions of dollars into this company and still can't make it work (probably because of the fact that governments can't run business profitably - I guess the Malaysians hasn't figured that out yet) - if Cessna can buy it at a bargain and turn it around it will be great for Cessna and Columbia.

Anonymous said...

UBS Bank & Malaysian Government one of the richest oil country's in the world are calling it quit's on Bend.

Three offers for Columbia, looks like Cessna will get it, and MOVE all to Kansas.

Anonymous said...

let's ALL remind ourselves why we participate here.

To have FUN, first and foremost is to have FUN.

No regular here got involved in the Bend Bubble we all saw it coming. We all warned people, and we were ignored.

Do we take ourselves seriously? Hell No. Are we on somebody's payoll? Hell Yes. ( just kiddin )

Arcane cryptic acronyms? Yes

Inside HUMOR? DOH

Newbies, we only ASK one thing go back and read all 2,000+ prior posts before making any assumption on what this game is all about.

Anonymous said...

Why would people not competent to implement a visionary project waste city resources on an idea that's intended primarily to benefit people who don't even live here yet?
*

Because Bend & Deschutes country electable s are incompetent buffoons, who think they're job is real estate speculation with taxpayer kitty.

Then again, what do expect when the electorate is a get-rich-quick incompetent town of buffoons?

Bend pulling its head out of its ass means a LOT of people would have to admit they're wrong. To date NOT a single council member has even read any of the past years MOU's. The current BEND is "Build and they will Come". A world class University is just a building. Build and they will come!

The mindset of con-artists. People who have never even traveled.

A major toilet flush is what is required, but as you point out the town is out of work realtors and builders. Most of which have no education. Think about this for a minute DEJA-VU, in 1983 the logging went KAPUT, we had uneducated loggers out of work. What is the difference today? NADA. The difference now is burn rate is higher and most can't hunt or burn firewood to heat.

Bend has spent a fortune and new buildings everything is so nice and pretty.

Columbia is as good as GONE. What will it take?

Go back to KURTEK who told city-council that Bend needed to eradicate the 'good-old boyz", e.g. Chamber of Commerce. What do you want now the incumbents to admit they were wrong? To admit that they were fooled by KURATEK like some Rasputin?? Well city-council did eradicate the chamber of commerce and everything was done in the dark, and council didn't read and only sign. Malayasia and UBS promised city-council they would protect them from the good ol-boyz, ...

THE only smart one was HUMMEL who resigned, before the ship sank.

Anonymous said...

George agree, always better to listen to anecdotes that reinforce what you already know to be true rather than statistics that prove otherwise.

*

If the statistics came from a reliable source? Perhaps Lerach of NAR?

If you look out your window, and every house has a for-sale sign for the past year, and NOT a single house has sold, and the ASK price is down -50% ARE YOU ALLOWED to make a deduction?

Must we wait until prior quarter stat's are released from NAR, until we can even have a debate?

Wait for NAR, and the debate will be over. Or look out your windows today. It's your choice.

Anonymous said...

I agree interest rates should have gone up, with the dollar collapsing we need to encourage foreign investment.

I can only at this time say "election cycle" The republicans know they're fucked, but will stimulate the economy, even if it means dropping the dollar even more.

But watch out, after this cycle is over, we're going to HAVE to increase rates, because NOBODY is going to be investing in DOLLARS, this is probably why Bernanke is over in Germany right now begging them to lower rates.

USA is a sub-prime borrower, and WE must pay high rates, NOBODY is going to loan to a sub-prime borrower.

By keeping rates low, all we're doing is printing money to keep the Republicans in power.

Anonymous said...

I mean, it's not an echo-chamber we're looking for here, is it?

*

At the very least BEM force the opposition to ask tough questions.

Force them to substantiate their claim that Bend is something special. A place where everyone is beautiful and all children are gifted.

The RE crowd had said this summer would be a comeback, well winter is here, it didn't come back.

Now what? We have predicted the future ad-nauseum, ...

Thus I ( royal-eye ) ASK what do you think is the future for Bend?

Everybody bought RE because they thought it was going to go to a MILLION, you still see that "Bend is the only resort town on the West"... This shit only comes from people who haven't traveled.

Bend is today what it was 25 years ago, a town of un-educated un-employed people. The RE market is NOT coming back, and NOBODY is going to get rich in RE. Thus why in the hell would anybody BUY bend RE in the future given their is NO possibility of enrichment.

Remember NOBODY bought BEND RE to be a home, ALL bought Bend RE because they were going to get rich.

Now we have reach a new day, ONLY a complete FUCKING MORON would buy RE in Bend today with the idea of enrichment. ERGO I say we will see decreased home ownership, and also consider that most homes here are second homes, that were purchased for ENRICHMENT. This is why there are 3,000->6,000 homes in BEND for sale.

There are NOT going to be many buyers, because there are NO JOBS here. There are NOT going to be many buyers because its a quick way to lose money.

Lastly the BANK NO longer lets you do stupid shit with other peoples MONEY.

It's game over for BEND.

Anonymous said...

HOLY SHIT BATMAN

Benanke today announced that the BENDBUBBLE is for worse than anyone predicted. HOLY FUCKING SHIT.

******

Mortgage woes 'exceed forecasts'
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke
Ben Bernanke has been applauded for cutting rates
Losses from sub-prime mortgages have far exceeded "even the most pessimistic estimates", US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke has said.

His comments to a US finance committee come two days after the Fed cut base interest rates to 4.75% from 5.25%.

The rate cut was made "to help forestall some of the adverse effects on the broader economy", he said.

That, along with pumping cash into the financial system, aimed to counter "significant market stress" he said.

Mr Bernanke was appearing before the House Committee on Financial Services.


We are committed to preventing problems from recurring, while still preserving responsible sub-prime lending
Ben Bernanke

However, unlike his Bank of England counterpart, Mervyn King, who was grilled by a committee of MPs on Thursday over troubles in the banking system, Mr Bernanke is not facing pressure.

"He's being applauded for taking timely precautionary measures," said the BBC's New York business correspondent Dharshini David.

"He injected cash into the money markets early on to ensure there was enough liquidity in the system, and cut the main interest rate once evidence was gathering to suggest that the financial crisis was taking its toll on consumer activity and confidence."

Repossessions set to rise

Mr Bernanke told the committee that US mortgage woes were set to continue - especially with adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs).

Proceedings for about 320,000 foreclosures - or repossessions - were begun in each of the first two quarters of 2007 he said, against an average of 225,000 per quarter in the past six years.

"With house prices still soft and many borrowers of recent-vintage sub-prime ARMs still facing their first interest rate resets, delinquencies and foreclosure initiations in this class of mortgages are likely to rise further," he said.

Mr Bernanke added that it was difficult to be precise about how many repossessions would take place, but he said that in normal circumstances about half of homeowners who were given repossession notices ended up losing their homes.

"That ratio may turn out to be higher in coming quarters because the proportion of sub-prime borrowers, who have weaker financial conditions than prime borrowers, is higher," Mr Bernanke said.

"We are committed to preventing problems from recurring, while still preserving responsible sub-prime lending."

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, who also spoke at the hearing, said he will consider allowing the two government-backed mortgage companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to temporarily buy, bundle and sell as securities any loans exceeding $417,000.

The plan is being billed as a way to inject liquidity into the stretched mortgage market.

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