Monday, September 10, 2007

FIRE YOUR REALTOR... TODAY!

Before I get to why you should fire your lazy-ass Realtor, I've been running SQL on BendBB's awesome Googlefied listing data, and found a few interesting things. Here is a short list of the largest declines in specific neighborhoods. The thing to realize is this is Aug data joined with July on the MLS number. It is NOT separate queries run on dissimilar homes: ALL the stats represented were for homes represented in BOTH MONTHS only. So it's sort of like Case-Shiller data, only the exact same homes are compared. These are the biggest August 1 month losses in subdivs with at least 6 homes:

  1. Awbrey Point (9 homes) -7.4%
  2. Awbrey Heights (7 homes) -5.0%
  3. Bonne Home (6 homes) -4.4%
  4. Shevlin Crest (7 homes) -4.1%
  5. Boyd Acre Crossing (8 homes) -4.0%
  6. Center (7 homes) -3.9%
  7. Three Pines (9 homes) -3.9%
  8. Quail Pine Estates (6 homes) -3.7%
  9. Gardenside (10 homes) -3.6%
  10. Tillicum Village (6 homes) -3.4%

Here are the 10 largest subdivs & their AVG losses:

  1. Deschutes River Woods (61 homes) -2.1%
  2. Northwest Crossing (54 homes) -1.3%
  3. RiverRim (51 homes) -.7%
  4. Broken Top (38 homes) -.9%
  5. Awbrey Butte (33 homes) -1.9%
  6. River Canyon Estates (27 homes) -1.7%
  7. Inn of the 7th (23 homes) -3.3%
  8. Lava Ridges (19 homes ) -.6%
  9. Whispering Pines (18 homes) -.7%
  10. Rivers Edge Village (18 homes) -1.5%

Now, I looked into that Awbrey Point loss of 7.4% on the 9 homes listed there. That's a really substantial loss, with the AVG price on those 9 homes going from $397,911, clear down to $368,600, or over $30K/house. That is a large, almost "concerted" decline. So I looked at the listings, and could quickly see a pattern. EVERY SINGLE home in Awbrey Point was reduced between Sunday, Aug 26 and Wednesday, Aug 29.

It was kicked off on Sunday by Nancy Melrose, of Melrose Realty. She whacked MLS listing 2702963 for a righteous 17.2% markdown (cumulative, 4th price reduction), from $459K, to $379,900. She also spanked MLS 2702961 for 12.9% (cumulative, 2nd reduction), down to $364.9K from $419K. According to BendBB's tables, both these townhomes have been listed since December 2003. Yes, 2003 (although I sort of wonder if that's real) (ADDENDUM: Ooops, that's because they're NOT! These were listed on Mar 12, 2007. My bad...). Strangely, MLS shows construction dates of "2007". And MLS interior shots show them both to be vacant.

Now, of course it's hard to say if it was "reaction" or coincidence, but every single other home in that subdiv was then reduced in the next 3 days. MLS numbers 2705471 (down 8.8%), 2705463 (down 7.8%), 2705470 (down 9.6%), 2705448 (down 7.8%), 2705466 (down 8.5%), and 2705468 (down 9.3%). (There was also another home, MLS 2708395, that was reduced 3.5% on Aug 28).

ALL these homes are listed by a single Realtor, Eileen Dees, at Steve Scott. Now look at her MLS numbers...2705448, 2705466, 2705468, 2705470, 2705471.... Them's builders numbers. Those badboys have been vacant from Day 1, most built in 2006.

I find this sort of interesting. It tells me that either builders are REAL tired of paying carry on these white elephants & want them MOVED, or Realtors are starting to have heart-to-hearts with their clients about waking up & smelling the REALITY. Dees & Melrose seemed to engage in a little competitive reduction here. Hell, maybe it's the same builder with both Realtors and (s)he said SELL! And there may just be the beginnings of a cascading reduction in prices. Sellers & Realtors are LOOKING around and reacting to lower comps by lowering their own price. A price reduction contagion? It could happen....

It's pretty tough to figure out what big swaths of stats like this mean, there's just so much. But it seems telling that in this instance, there is a decided "competition" to mark down price. Completely deluded sellers with ridiculous asking prices seems to have been the rule to date, 100% enabled by their dumbass Realtors. This little Awbrey Point sample seems to indicate that maybe... FINALLY... these people are waking up to the fact that:

1) Ridiculous pricing will simply impede EVER selling
2) If the guy next door marks down, YOU better mark down

These two facts, while almost inanely stupid commonsense, have been largely absent from the Seller Mindset in this town for 5 years. Wildly idiotic prices, and comparable pricing by listing brokers that looks like it was done with a dartboard.

I (used to) pride myself on being able to drive by almost ANY property, and coming within 2-3% of the ask. Hell, I don't even guess anymore. My wife will show me pics in the local mags of homes for sale, and cover up the price, and ask me what I think they're asking (we are an exciting lot). 4-5 years ago I could read the description, and about half the time hit it within $500. Now? Someone could be asking $150K.. or $300K... or a million. I have no idea. This IS NOT usual or normal. It's pie-in-the-sky pricing. And until a fairly well-informed person can guess within 2-3% of what a home owner is asking, our market will remain UNHEALTHY. People HATE uncertainty. Especially when it's uncertainty regarding the largest purchase in their life.

Wow, I've seldom taken such a beating for saying that there actually MAY EXIST some homes in the Bend area worth buying. Even Duncan questioned the Bearish conviction of Paul-doh! I put out the usual caveats, that I thought Bend RE is a BAD INVESTMENT, that this (possible buying of a Bend home) really only works for long term owner/occupiers, and the like. Still, I got whomped. So maybe I'll try one more time to describe what I think about Bend RE prices, in graph form:

See, I think there are "Normal" times for Bend & most cities throughout the World, when RE is priced fairly appropriately given local incomes, or even Conveyor Belt incomes, when appropriate. As was pointed out in a recent Bulletin article, Bend medians in the late 80's were around $50K, while the rest of the US was closer to $100K. We were probably moderately undervalued back then. Our local economics stunk, and consequently so did our home prices. We were the Flint Michigan of Oregon. We had low prices, and we deserved it.

This is in sharp contrast to today. Admittedly, Bends economy has improved vastly from the Bad Old Days. It would have been hard for it to do anything but. But has it improved so radically, that we deserve one of the largest premiums in the country over the national median? I don't think so.

As a matter of fact, I think our high prices will be our undoing. They are proving to be more than just a short-lived affair, and companies are starting to make long term plans based on our high costs. For the most part, they are leaving. This can't be UNDONE. Once they're gone, getting them back will be near impossible. Seaswirl is NOT coming back to Culver. Oregon Woodworking... gone. Columbia Air... On life support. There are many others that are packing up & leaving or are already gone. These companies are dead & gone (or damn close), and they are not coming back. Our city leaders have chosen to expend resources to ramp up industries that are notoriously low paying. Housekeepers CANNOT afford $400,000 homes.

Anyway, the above graph more clearly illustrates what I think about the Bend market. Virtually ALL homes are priced FAR TOO high. FAR TOO HIGH! But there does exist a small (but growing, as prices decline) percentage that are within eyeshot of normalcy. "Eyeshot" being defined as 2.5 STD's above the mean in "Normal" times. I define "normalcy" as $190K, or so, medians in Bend. And there does exist a small number of people who HAVE TO come to Bend, and either by choice or necessity, HAVE to buy a home. I was simply pointing out what I thought were "relatively" inexpensive homes... not straight out inexpensive homes. I don't believe there is even a single INEXPENSIVE home in Cent OR. NOT ONE.

OK, finally for FIRE YOUR LAZY ASS REALTOR. OK, yesterday I was on a beer deprived bender over on BendBB's board, essentially saying that sellers should DEMAND that their Realtors show up to EVERY SINGLE showing of your house. EVERY SINGLE ONE. After all, these are strangers in your house, you have no idea what they are doing, or what they're like. I also pointed out that one of the first persons to look at my house when I was selling initially represented himself as looking at my house "for a client". He was a licensed Realtor, and this "story" later proved to be false. It was kind of weird, this single guy who showed no credentials just wandering through our house. It was creepy. I mean, I don't think he stole anything, but he had no problem lying to me right off the bat. You absolutely should have someone representing you AT EVERY SHOWING. PERIOD. But ESPECIALLY when you are not there. And really, you should NEVER be at a showing, it is your Realtors job to be there. And I got this response, ostensibly from a Realtor:

so question, if I am a listing agent and I have 60 + listings and 6 of them are being shown at the same time, how am i supposed to be at all 6! get a life, if you hire the best they will be busy marketing you home to buyers and other realtors. You don't hire a realtor to attend showings, you hire to spend their money and make an monatary investment in marketing your home at no risk to you. Maybe I should ask you up front to fork over the money to advertise you home...how would that make you feel? Wrong isn't it? then demanding we spend all our time working one single listing, when we have many other to service as well.

Here was my response:

so question, if I am a listing agent and I have 60 + listings and 6 of them are being shown at the same time, how am i supposed to be at all 6!

Excuse for not doing your job. Here's the solution, listen close:

LIMIT YOUR LISTINGS!


I know. I came up with that in less than 48 hrs. I've been asked to speak at MIT. Nobel Peace Prize, that is.

get a life, if you hire the best they will be busy marketing you home to buyers and other realtors
.

2 WORDS: STOP DRINKING AT SILVER MOON EVERYDAY.

And stop trying to imply that MARKETING takes more than 10 seconds per decade. Yeah, I know, I've done it.

"Hi, Marketing Jerks, here comes a fax. Market it. "It's overpriced", is the sum total of my knowledge of the situation. OK, bye."

You don't hire a realtor to attend showings, you hire to spend their money and make an monatary investment in marketing your home at no risk to you.

Nice. THANK YOU for telling me, OSTENSIBLY YOUR FUCKIN' MEAL TICKET, WHY I'M HIRING YOU. At NO RISK to me? What's that Big Ass Wad of cash you deadbeats take? Chicken feed? At no Risk, my ass.

"ATTENTION JEWS! We are offering a NO RISK shower. STEP RIGHT UP!"


Maybe I should ask you up front to fork over the money to advertise you home...how would that make you feel?

It'd make me feel like I'm doing an FSBO, much the way I felt while my house was listed a few years back by the laziest sack-a snot that ever walked this planet. Actually this would be a FAR PREFERABLE business model than what we have today:

"HI, I just got my GED & I'm a Realtor. You're selling your house, please name your astronomical price cuz I'm too stupid & lazy figure it out. Could you hurry, I have some "marketing" to do at Silver Moon."

Wrong isn't it? then demanding we spend all our time working one single listing, when we have many other to service as well.

Right. My Realtor could ONLY ATTEND THE 3 SHOWINGS HE DID FOR MY HOUSE EVERY WEEK: Sum total weekly time spent; 1 hour at showings, 1 hour commuting. See, that's a problem when your an alcoholic, meth addict, or in mens restrooms, or whatever it is you do 65 hrs/week.

OK dude, I feel bad for you. Your a lazy-as-hell listing monkey who ain't worked a day in 5 years, and you caught wind of some heretical bullshit that suggests YOU WORK. I know, I'd raise hell too. But it's a fact, you're going to have to start working, put that Realtor/GED license to use.



This just burns my ass. This lazy bastard is trying to tell ME that he's TOO BUSY to do his job. "Other listings" and all. "What am I supposed to do?", he says.

You lazy sack of shit, YOU'RE SUPPOSED TO WORK! I have paid almost $60,000 in commissions since arriving in Cent OR, and was essentially ABANDONED once the listing contract was signed. WORST SERVICE EVER. Well, "SERVICE" is a misnomer, since I've basically NEVER RECEIVED ANY SERVICE.

My God, this ONE differentiator would probably result in a gold mine of listings. This ONE THING. Personally, I would go immediately to a Realtor offering to do this. Will it happen? Look at the above Realtor reply. Lazy sack of crap is too busy telling me exactly what he will do for me, which is precious little, rather than listening to what I want. Lazy bastard.

My Advice: INSIST, and I mean by GOD DEMAND, that your listing broker go to EVERY SINGLE showing of your house. DEMAND IT. Those lazy bastards are making HUGE MONEY, and every single seller, whether individual with a $80K cracker box rusted out mobile death hole, to a 100 unit multi-million dollar luxury home builder, EVERYONE should demand their Realtor be at EVERY SINGLE SHOWING. The second they think about putting a lockbox on the door, FIRE 'EM.

It is EASILY accomplished, especially given the fact that homes now sell about as often as leap year. Demand it. Those bastards should EARN that money, and the LEAST THEY COULD DO is actually accompany TOTAL STRANGERS into your house. It's just insane not to have someone you know & trust in YOUR HOME. If your Realtor will not go to every, single showing from now on:

FIRE THEIR LAZY ASS

224 comments:

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IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

From Duncan's blog, by Bilbo-Bust-Bend-Bo regarding "Batgate":

A sad observation on the parasitic electorate of Bend, the essence of the comment of course is that you deserve your electable, for they are a mirror image of the people Bend.

"parasitic electorate". I love that! That's a great observation. We are "parasitic". I don't think I could come up with a better word for characterizing our elected officials or the RE industry in Bend.

Anonymous said...

A parasitic electorate, enjoying a Real Estate Paralysis not seen since the great depression.

Anybody want to place bets on the outcome??

The 1929 Stock Market crash is well known, what people forget is that by 1932 the US real estate market was in paralysis. Sellers wouldn't lower prices, and buyers wouldn't but.

In the ensuing years prices went down 90%. Why pray tell? Because the average leverage had been 10 to one, e.g. people had borrowed ten for every one they had put in, and thus the homes fell to the actual cost.

Today we have had zero-down, thus in theory prices could fall to zero, as this is what they're worth. That said perhaps 1/2 playe the game, so there will be averages, but its very likely the house next door to you, and in front of you, and across the street from you will be empty for years, which will attract cock-roaches, the human kind. Even for the 'good' people who didn't play the game they will be effected.

Then go to our Bend, where +50% of the homes were speculation. Where +50% of the homes sat empty prior to the bubble, where +50% of the homes have been built new in the past five years. Bend will see perhaps a 90% loss of occupancy, when you had in the fact that +50% of all jobs are related to RE, e.g. building,mtg, ...

In summary Bend is fucked, and more fucked than even during the great depression, on average.

Anonymous said...

I recently saw a listing in Colorado where the buyer was offering the following incentives(Buyer Incentive 1990 Jeep with purchase of house, or carpet allowance, or closing cost assistance up to $6,000.00) and still I wonder if he'll get any bites.

So again, I ask you, what is a buyer like me to do? I

*

We know its going to be 2012 before the foreclosure glut is over, and worst case is 20+ years before we see high prices again. By what you have said you CANNOT wait that long.

If you can go down 25% do it, becuase this time next year will be -50%.

There are NO buyers, there is NO money, the only thing you can do is market the thing yourself, keep your realtor, everyday promote the house on Craigs, and everywhere you can, take out an AD of your own every sunday in the Oregonian, and promote the home. This way you'll catch that one guy with money, but YOU must lower the price, and work your ass off NOW, if you keep dragging your ass, you will be giving the house away next year.

I dumped a lot of homes during the 1983-1987 oregon recession, that sent homes down -70%. I have been there, you should have sold your house last year, and/or YOU should have sold it before this February when the MTG imploded.

At this point you MUST sell, or your going to have a home going to seed in your absence. I cannot stress enough that you will lose everything if you don't work your ass off marketing the home now, trust NOT your realtor, remember he's got 100 other homes to sell, and yours is NO more important than another, only you can show your home and create the demand. Go to every website, newsgroup, advertise in magazines where people might be interested, tell them about the 'good deal they're getting'. Don't believe the myth that its coming back. There is no way hell we're even going to see -50% prices coming back in 10-20 years.

It's GAME-OVER, and that isn't even me saying that anymore, now DUY the state economist is saying that.

Anonymous said...

Seems like everyone has their own definition of gentrification. Here's the first one that comes up on Google.

"The rehabilitation of a deteriorated neighborhood by new residents who are wealthier than the long-time residents. This can cause an increase in housing prices and lead to displacement of the long-time residents."

Sounds like parts of Bend to me.

** FUCK google, here is merriam

gentrification
One entry found for gentrification.
Main Entry: gen·tri·fi·ca·tion
Pronunciation: "jen-tr&-f&-'kA-sh&n
Function: noun
: the process of renewal and rebuilding accompanying the influx of middle-class or affluent people into deteriorating areas that often displaces earlier usually poorer residents

**

Note the redundant word here is RESIDENT. There are NO residents in Bend, speculators, and second home is NOT a fucking resident. Thus there has BEEN no fucking gentrification.

There was gentrification back in the 70's when the $20k mill-houses, that held poor, where bought buy 80's yuppy's, but that was +20% years ago.

During the past five years was speculation by outsiders, there ARE NO fucking residents.

Like boss hogg hollern himself says, bend is just non-placement-bound people, these aren't residents, these are just drifters and speculators, that like locust have come to rape and pillage bend.

Gentrification is when a new batch of wealth comes and takes over an OLD POOR neighborhood. Non of this happened in Bend during the past five years. What happened was MASS INSANITY, like Madness of the Crowds ( textbook ).

You cannot have gentrification is the absence of residents. During the past five years there were NO poor hoods in Bend, as the poor was driven out years ago by the yuppy's.

The people that have arrived in Bend during the last five years are ALL vampires, and now they're sucking the blood out of each other, soon all of Bend will go completely ape shit.

Nothing is worse than a cali without a credit card that works, nothing is worse than a cali with no gas money for their SUV, your going to see RE HO's siphoning gas in the night in the finest hoods.

Anonymous said...

Note the redundant word here is RESIDENT. There are NO residents in Bend, speculators, and second home is NOT a fucking resident. Thus there has BEEN no fucking gentrification.

During the past five years was speculation by outsiders, there ARE NO fucking residents.


Bendbust, you are barking mad!

Anonymous said...

Alas, the BULL has found the source of all problems in Central Oregon RE, and that problem is DOGS. Hell even the country sheriff knows the gig is only about selling RE to tourists, but hell going after puppy's is like being tough on child porn, its WIN-WIN
*
Welcome to Bend, where the cops come door to door looking for dogs, aka china, for food.

Surviving a dog attack
In Deschutes County, few laws and a limited amount of enforcement staff have made cracking down on stray dogs difficult, especially in rural areas
By Christopher Stollar / The Bulletin
Published: September 09. 2007 5:00AM PST

LA PINE —

While riding a bike one morning through his sparse, dirt-road La Pine neighborhood last month, 11-year-old Matt Bell suddenly felt a sharp sting in his leg.

A medium-size dog sprinted off its owner’s property down the road and sunk its teeth into the child’s flesh, knocking the boy off his bike. Matt tried to crawl away, but the dog kept biting. Skin began to tear on his legs, back, left arm and an eyelid — seven wounds in all — before the dog ran away.

“It felt like somebody was poking me with needles everywhere really fast,” Matt said.

In rural Central Oregon, folks often like to let their pups roam. But stray dogs — defined in Deschutes County code as dogs without owners or dogs that fled their owner’s property — are a significant problem, particularly given that the laws and officers to enforce them are few and far between.

This is particularly true in the La Pine area. Aside from Matt, 17 other people have been bitten by dogs there within the past year, Deschutes County Sheriff’s Capt. Tim Edwards said. That’s about one-third of the county’s total number of reported dog bites from Aug. 1, 2006, to July 31.

Most of the bites, Edwards said, were by stray dogs.

And aside from bites, the number of animals-at-large calls — which span into livestock but are mostly dog-related — are higher in La Pine than the rest of the county. Last year, people in the La Pine area made 681 calls about animals at large out of 1,912 total calls in the county.

La Pine had more than Redmond or Sisters, Edwards said.

Some residents and officials say stray dogs can be hard to monitor in southern Deschutes County because of its rural lots tucked deep in the forest and the lack of animal shelters and clinics.

“It still has some of the philosophy that everybody has lots of land, and a lot of people never tie their dogs or restrain their dogs in any way,” said Troy Kerstetter, the animal welfare director at the Humane Society of Central Oregon in Bend. He added later that, “(They) aren’t watching their dogs as carefully as people in big cities where cars are driving by.”

Enforcing the law

There are few laws in Deschutes County when it comes to stray dogs.

First, there is no leash law. Some cities within Deschutes County, like Bend, have established a leash law. The fledgling city of La Pine has not.

The county can, however, cite people for having dogs “at large,” meaning they are not on their owner’s property or under human control, according to code.

The county can also punish residents for having a dangerous dog or one that is a nuisance. Fees range from $242 to $427.

To enforce these rules, the Sheriff’s Office has one — sometimes two — animal-control officers assigned to patrol the entire county at any given time, said Nancy Schassen, with the sheriff’s substation in La Pine.

“We have a very limited amount of people,” Schassen said. “Sometimes, we only have one officer, and they cover the entire county.”

Sheriff’s Sgt. Scott Beard patrolled the La Pine area from 2002 to 2005 as a deputy. During those years, Beard said he dealt with stray dogs on a daily basis. At times, one-quarter of all stray dog calls in a day came from the La Pine area.

When bite cases come up, Beard said, deputies must first investigate what happened. If they can find the dog’s owner, deputies require that the animal be quarantined for 10 days.

If they cannot find anybody in charge of the dog, deputies usually take the animal to the Humane Society in Bend, where it is quarantined.

The fear, Beard said, is that the dog has transmitted an infection.

And it’s fairly common that deputies can’t find the dog’s owner.

The La Pine Animal Hospital treats many dogs that come in without identification, vaccine tags and licenses, receptionist Debbie Weber said.

“It is a big problem,” she added. “I hear a lot of people who, when I give their dog a rabies vaccine or a form for licensing, say, ‘Why should I pay for these fees when there’s no enforcement down here?’”

Dr. Gordon Pickering said he has encountered that same mentality many times at the hospital while treating dogs in the La Pine area for the past 18 years.

“People have this sense that they think they can let their dogs run around and not stay on their property,” he said.

If a dog has marked some area as its own territory outside its owner’s property, human interference can make it aggressive, Deschutes Veterinary Clinic veterinarian Scott Kramer said.

“They consider wherever the heck you are as theirs,” he said.

Dogs can also bite people if they have rabies or feel cornered. While the strength of the bite can vary depending on breed and size, Kramer said, people sometimes don’t understand just how powerful dogs can chomp.

A small, 80-pound golden retriever can easily overcome a 12-year-old boy, he added. Typically, dogs go for the throat, abdomen and bottom — just like coyotes.

“They can be pretty strong,” Kramer said. “They can crush bones in a child’s hands easily.”

Even if the dog has no rabies, a dog’s mouth can carry other infections that can quickly spread through the body if not treated.

Kramer said one Bend woman he knew was bitten by a stray dog about two years ago and ended up losing an arm because she put off seeing a doctor.

Another woman recently was bitten in the finger, spreading infection all the way up to her armpit and sending her to the hospital for heavy antibiotics.

That’s why law enforcement and veterinarians always recommend a dog bite victim report the incident and see a doctor.

Fear of dogs

The stray dog did not break any bones in Matt’s body. But he sustained seven puncture wounds and ended up with stitches in his eyelid.

“You could see the fat,” said Stacie Bell, 30, Matt’s mother and an assistant veterinarian at La Pine Animal Hospital. “You could identify each tooth mark on his back. He had punctures in his right leg. He was wearing jeans, but the dog punctured through that. You could imagine the force of this dog biting down and pushing the jeans through his flesh.”

Bell called 911 and spoke to sheriff’s deputies.

Even though the incident happened Aug. 21, Bell said her son still wakes up with nightmares. This week, Matt said he dreamed about falling off his bike. He felt pain in his dream, only to wake up and still feel the stings.

“I stay away from dogs,” Matt said.

Other residents have had close calls with dogs as well.

Frank Piazza, 62, has lived in the La Pine area for four years. He doesn’t allow his three grandchildren to play in their front yard because they got charged by some stray dogs about two months ago while putting on a lemonade stand.

Nobody got hurt, but the incident disturbed Piazza.

“My girls don’t even get to go play in their front yard because of the dogs,” he said. “The problem is, there’s not enough control.”

Anonymous said...

Bendbust, you are barking mad!
*
Woof-Woof

I love to fuck RE, MTG, Cops, and other RE pros in Bend in arse.

Woof-Woof

Anonymous said...

There will be no gentrification in Bend as these ugly people will not stay, as they have created a giant real estate ponzi scheme, and the last sucker has bought. There is NO greater fool coming to bend.
*
In Bend they call those that eat dog meat 'residents', they come from california, but they're not asians.

They eat dog. Where ever they go they cause the local papers to create a dog-hysteria, and round-up all the dogs.

When all the dog-meat is gone, they move on.

Welcome to Bend.

What is the difference between the BULL and the SORE??

The BULL is right wing it makes blue-hairs in Bend fear red necks. The SORE is left wing it makes liberals fear a construction moratorium.

My the things that a well spent PR dollar can buy, only in Bend.

Aaron of the SORE the best liberal fuck a dollar can buy, be sure so bring your own KY, and condoms.

In Bend a conservative hates nature, and a liberal loves Development. Only in Bend. The MOST twisted pathetic shit-hole in America.

Anonymous said...

I love to fuck RE, MTG, Cops, and other RE pros in Bend in arse.

Everyone should find something in life that provides spiritual fulfillment -- glad to hear you've found yours.

Woof Woof said...

I just moved to Bend, but I love this town. I attended the Pet Parade this summer and afterward, we had a 24 hour dog BBQ. Every kind of dog meat, I love Bend.

Back east folks go to jail for having dog's fight, but in Bend you can legally eat your neighbors dog. I love Bend.

Anonymous said...

IHTBYB wrote:

According to BendBB's tables, both these townhomes have been listed since December 2003. Yes, 2003 (although I sort of wonder if that's real).


WTF? I looked at the August 2007 month-end spreadsheet I posted and I don't see any 2003 listing dates in there. Where are those December 2003 dates you're referring to?

In case there's any confusion, MLS #'s starting with 26 were created in 2006 and those starting with 27 were created in 2007. Any questions?

-- bendbb

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I looked at the August 2007 month-end spreadsheet I posted and I don't see any 2003 listing dates in there.

Right. I have to do a lot of data reformatting on that to go into my DB. I think I did a pass that "looked right", but what I thought was "2007", was really the listing month, "07". I'll have to look at that again. Arg. It's a monotonous as hell process.... yuk. That's why I wrote "I wonder if this is 'real'".

Anonymous said...

Hai guise! What's happening in this thread?

Anonymous said...

Right. I have to do a lot of data reformatting on that to go into my DB.

We must come up with a way to make it easier for you. How about a MySQL export file?

-- bendbb

Anonymous said...

It is clean, well maintained, repainted inside and out, on a huge corner lot looking out at 700K + homes, has had a pre-inspection with all minor problems fixed, and still, no traffic.
*
Have your tried offering your children as sex pets to potential buyers?? Its working in Prescott, our sister bubble.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

We must come up with a way to make it easier for you. How about a MySQL export file?

THAT would be nice. I should attempt to automate the mess. It's an ad-hoc disaster that I actively try to forget every time I do it. Yarg. It's the 'MM/DD/YY' has to be 'YYYY-MM-DD' which mucks up the works.

That goes on the list today. Geez... I'm going to have to check back months too.

Anonymous said...

I think this artificial DOG-BITE hysteria in LA-PINES ( LA PINES ), aka lapine, is something to watch. Remember year to date la-pines has had the best appreciation in central oregon, because it was the cheapest place left.

That said developers have moved in, and calis buying, and then guess what, your neighbors are rednecks. It's ONE thing to run red-necks out Bend, that start a generation ago, with the fact that most people had two jobs in Bend, but slept in a trailer in LA-PINES 20+ years ago.

People 'live' in La-Pines, they play fish, and the dogs run wild. Then a few calis move in and they're pissed because its not clean and NAZI like in cali. The BULL is quick to make a big story about how LAPINE is out of control, but the folks in LAPINE have been fine for years.

Its going to be interesting to watch. Rednecks may be painting swastikas in Sisters, but I think the LA-PINE folk will be ten times for explicit in their dislike of the new foreigners.

The dog issue is just symbolism, the fact is LAPINE people do as they please and the cops have ignored them for years, and now that the calis are moving in they're demanding that the cops do a BEND to LA-PINE. I personally don't think that LA-PINE will put up with the BEND shit, first of all the people there most likely know that the get-rich quick game is over.

The vast population of LA-PINE in my mind is bible-thumpers, and anti-government type, and they can quite often be the same.

In summary, watch whats going on in LA-PINES, because they're either going to win the war, or end up like Bend, and if they end up like Bend, that means the red-necks get moved down to Gilchrist/Crescent.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Ahhhh crap. I found it. I DID leave the listing date in the wrong format. Dang it.

Timothy said...

>>but I think the LA-PINE folk will be ten times for explicit in their dislike of the new foreigners.

My brother-in-law lives in Lapine. He's the type that will tell the Californians right to their face, "I don't like you."

It's hard enough for me to imagine Californians in Redmond, let alone Lapine.

Anonymous said...

My gawd we our own Y2K crisis right here in this blog.

Isn't there are kid out there that can just reformat the stupid 'bendbb' database and be done with it?

Or better yet whats the point?

One doesn't need numbers to know what's going on. Just walk/ride around and note that nothing is selling. Who gives a fuck if MLS data says something is down -7%, when I know for a fact that if you want to SELL TODAY, you must ASK -50% of last year.

The fucking data will always lag the reality of today by three months this is the nature of the system. By the time you make sense of the data the issue is quite old.

Pay attention to today,

All this is like SEC data, if I want to know what big firms are DUMPING CACB, the only data I have right now is from Mar-07, that doesn't help me understand today.

In BEND the way to understand today is to get off your ass, and walk around, and talk to people.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

August is all fixed.

And I guess I should add an addendum to my post comments.

If you find a good, decent, hardworking Realtor who DOES show your house at every showing, tell you friends. Just like a broad sampling of the general public, the Realtor population has The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly... although not many are real ugly, they can't be or they won't make it.

I mean, my poor experience obviously colors my opinion about Realtors here, and that Realtor quoted in my post essentially rationalizing never working, pushed me over the edge. But that 6% they charge is a HELL OF A LOT of money. And they should earn it, and I feel a BIG REALTOR RESPONSIBILITY is actually ensuring that the process is safe & secure for sellers. These are 100% STRANGERS wandering through your house for Gods sake! DEMAND that your Realtor accompany every single one.

And if your Realtor expects you to "be there" in their stead, realize that diminishes the "showing experience" for potential buyers, it's VERY uncomfortable. Plus, you are basically doing your Realtors job. It's THEIR JOB to d everything they can to sell your house.

The Salad Years are over, and Realtors DO NOT have anything to do these days, except maybe cry in their beer at Silver Moon. They DO have time to show your house, and by God they should.

If they won't accompany every single buyer, you might as well FSBO and keep the money, cuz YOU are doing ALL THE WORK.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

He's the type that will tell the Californians right to their face, "I don't like you."

I like him already.

One doesn't need numbers to know what's going on.

True & False. There's obviously a ton of anecdotal evidence all over. But BendBB's number are pretty damn up to date. That Aug spreadsheet has listings right up to Aug 31.

YOU may not need "the numbers" to figure things out (you're like my wife), but I do. I'll bet Tim does. The numbers tell me EVERYTHING. The previous price and number of price changes? Man, that is Gold, and you'll find that no where else. This data is better than MLS in many ways.

Anonymous said...

How about a MySQL export file?

THAT would be nice.


Is there a way for me to send you a MySQL export file through this blog? If not, you can register for the bulletin board and I can contact you via PM.

-- bendbb

Anonymous said...

Why not just export the database as CSV, document the columns, get a list of SKYPE names for those who want the data, and then post the data to group as a shared SKYPE file.

BUT first turn the data into CSV, which is lowest common denominator for the past century, and document the columns.

Anonymous said...

YOU may not need "the numbers" to figure things out (you're like my wife), but I do. I'll bet Tim does. The numbers tell me EVERYTHING.
*
Of course numbers are important, but your yourself has on all occasions mentioned the trust-level of the numbers.

Garbage-in / Garbage-out, The question is can the data be known to be 100% accurate, and can the data columns be once and for all standardized.

Anonymous said...

And if your Realtor expects you to "be there" in their stead, realize that diminishes the "showing experience" for potential buyers, it's VERY uncomfortable. Plus, you are basically doing your Realtors job. It's THEIR JOB to d everything they can to sell your house.
*
I have written about this subject extensively, but on this forum YOU MUST PEAT&REPEAT.

I have bought and sold 100's of homes in Oregon during the last 40 years. I have some of the best robo-realtors working for me.

Realtors are CLOSERS, they're job is to make sure NOBODY drops the BALL, and quite often I pay MY realtors 7%.

That said, I generally do the marketing, by listing daily on craigs, putting ad's in all the known papers with the realtors phone-number, ... No realtor is going to give YOUR home 100%.

In a bad market such as now, you must give 400%,

Everything is a numbers game, regarding 'showing' the house, I let the realtor do that, e.g. that is where MY robo-realtor comes in, but generally it was ME that draws in the buyer, through MY marketing.

Let's define marketing it means "creating a need", if YOU want to sell a home, YOU must create the need.

A realtor is for showing, and walking the process to CLOSE.

Realtors who work for me only care about ONE thing, and that is getting PAID, nothing else matters.

Don't drop the fucking ball.

In a market like today, you must work your ass off.

There is NOBODY other than yourself that cares about dumping your house.

I have been writing about how to do this shit for over six months, there is NOTHING above that I have NOT written in the past.

The PASSIVE days are over, and its rare that a home sells quickly, in all my years in Oregon, most of the time when I SELL, its ME that got the buyer to my realtor.

Anonymous said...

Why not just export the database as CSV, document the columns, get a list of SKYPE names for those who want the data, and then post the data to group as a shared SKYPE file.

BUT first turn the data into CSV, which is lowest common denominator for the past century, and document the columns.


I've been using CSV since the beginning of time (in my case that was 1975 when I first laid hands on a computer). CSV has pros (LCD) and cons (too many to list), but it won't solve IHTBYB's problem which is apparently the date format in one column.

The data is currently published in HTML format, which is easy to suck into just about any modern database or spreadsheet program. I offered to send it to IHTBYB as a MySQL export file because my understanding is he's using MySQL to do his analysis.

-- bendbb

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

In a bad market such as now, you must give 400%...

WHAT! 400%? Why stop there? how about 1,000%? Screw that! 1,000,000%. HELL!

A quadrillion percent! MORE!

A billion trillion gazillion percent!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

it won't solve IHTBYB's problem which is apparently the date format in one column.

Ahhhh... don't worry about it. It's this goofy little process that has about 15 steps, and once I get proficient, it'll go fast. Skype & stuff is overkill for me.

I'm good w/ Google spreadsheets.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

in my case that was 1975 when I first laid hands on a computer

Ah ha. Guess How Old BendBB Is has begun. Hmmm... CSV in '75? I'm guessing Bill Gates age (but not net worth)...

51?

Anonymous said...

I'm 50, a year younger than Bill Gates. That gives me one more year to match his net worth. ;-)

-- bendbb

Anonymous said...

I call for the old New Orleans music scene to erupt in Bend. That will solve all your problems idiots.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I'm 50, a year younger than Bill Gates. That gives me one more year to match his net worth. ;-)

Hey, 1 year off? Not bad!

If you DO match his net worth, then I take back everything I've said about you BendBB (well, the bad stuff). You & me will have to be best friends! Really!

Anonymous said...

I call for the old New Orleans music scene to erupt in Bend. That will solve all your problems idiots.
*

Bend is fucked, its full of non-artistic, self indulgent parasites.

Given that new orleans has 100's of years of french culture, and a slave population, the french love of life combined with the french love of sex and food, and that created new-orleans, ... add a little time and you have the greatest party city in the world, ...

Now back to our bend, a bunch of parasitic calis are running away from mexicans & blacks up to gated community's in bend, buying little shacks on worthless desert land.

Bend doesn't have a fucking chance of anything.

The only hope for Bend, is that IF in the next 20+ years NWXC becomes a mexican barrio, and if they stick around 2-3 generations, and IF the folks from burning-man just happen to start being the next occupants, then maybe in a 100 years there might be a music scene in Bend.

Odd's of this happening?? Zero.

Anonymous said...

it won't solve IHTBYB's problem which is apparently the date format in one column.
*
Like I said this whole blog has come to an abrupt halt because we have a y2k problem,

I started computers in the 60's and the first ten years was on punched cards. I didn't see my first 'terminal' until 1972, and that was an IBM selectric. State of the art.

I like CSV because its non proprietary, if you want to get nit-picky I also said it has been around a 100 years, how come none of the correction bitches picked up on that?

date,bs,RE,MTG,COP,DOG,,,fuck-off,,,bendbb,EOL

Note, the use of caps and commas, hypens?? Think CSV, ...

I know this is all rocket science, I just hope you computer experts get this database/column problem worked out before the bubble has passed the trough.


p.s. I mentioned SKYPE because it is fun, free, and anonymous.

Anonymous said...

In a bad market such as now, you must give 400%...

WHAT! 400%? Why stop there? how about 1,000%? Screw that! 1,000,000%. HELL!
*

A 4x effort is doable, after that it is very academic.

The point is IF you want to sell a house, YOU have to create the traffic and demand. Create so many phone calls for your 'realtor' that he/she goes completely NUTS.

Anybody working for fucking ME, deserves their fucking commission, but you know what, I have always sold houses even in bad markets.

Anonymous said...

Bend is fucked, its full of non-artistic, self indulgent parasites.

Like you?

Anonymous said...

I like CSV because its non proprietary, if you want to get nit-picky I also said it has been around a 100 years, how come none of the correction bitches picked up on that?

Because it's now common knowledge that everything you write is wrong.

Timothy said...

I hate to encourage the nerd in Paul over the real estate analyst in Paul, but I like csv because PHP like it...

while (($data = fgetcsv($handle)) !== FALSE)

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

Bend is fucked, its full of non-artistic, self indulgent parasites.

Like you?
*
LIKE US

My, it takes time to hit home with this crowd. That said it is worth the time, for the malleable or formidable.

Anonymous said...

I like csv because PHP like it...

*

Yes, grasshopper, and if PHP like-eth, then all glory will be blessed on among thee,

p.s. if we post the raw data in CSV, I have recorded prior partys of bendbb doing his gimp-suit KY gig, and one only needs the sounds, that with the data will keep us busy for at least 4-5 years for the bubble trough.

Anonymous said...

I also said it has been around a 100 years, how come none of the correction bitches picked up on that?

Because it's now common knowledge that everything you write is wrong.
*
Welcome to Bend.
You have learned your first lesson, that most of what is seen at first glance in Bend, is not that what it appears.

Not since the third Reich has the few pulled the wool over the eye of so many.

bendbutt said...

I have decided on a Pepsi Challenge, the Bendbb/Ihtbyb has until Jan 1, 2008 to get the data reformatted, otherwise BendBust will reformat it as RPG with JCL.

Anonymous said...

otherwise BendBust will reformat it as RPG with JCL.

That fits right in with bendbust's stated desire to live in the past.

Anonymous said...

BEND HAS CHANGED, and FINALLY the BULL has the found the experts to acknowledge that factd.

Bend, a city he grew up in and hadn’t seen in a long time.

“Driving through here you realize all the missed opportunities,” he said. “Bend has changed a lot.

Madras prison welcomes its first group of inmates
'The entire atmosphere at the prison has changed'

By Lauren Dake / The Bulletin
Published: September 11. 2007 5:00AM PST

MADRAS — They came by the busload, shackled at the waist and ankles. Many of them were up as early as 4 a.m., with their final destination a mystery until the bus wound down Ashwood Road and stopped at the Deer Ridge Correctional Institution.

The first 35 minimum-security inmates arrived Monday at the Madras prison. They came from institutions across the state — Snake River, Warner Creek, Two Rivers — and were handpicked for their skills, such as landscaping and food preparation, that they could bring to the institution.

Monday’s final passenger van arrived around 1 p.m., with nine inmates dressed in transport clothes: white jumpsuits, gray socks and orange sandals. Officers unlocked their handcuffs, asked them their state identification number and led them inside to an austere white room, where Lt. Jason Berry briefly oriented them to their new surroundings.

“Be flexible with your new living situation,” Berry said. “Make it the culture you want to live with. We’ll get you fed, take you on a tour, show you where to go and where not to go, to keep you out of trouble.”

“I would appreciate that,” said one of the inmates.

“We will not tolerate disrespect to staff or to each other here,” Berry added. “And we won’t disrespect you either.”

A couple of inmates nodded their head and said, “right on” and “that’s good to hear.”

They asked the lieutenant a few questions.

“What about our TV situation?” one asked. They found out there are no personal TVs, there is a multipurpose room for working out but no free weights, and yes, they will receive maps of the area and directions to send their families.

One by one, they left the room and went through the check-in process.

“Pant size?” asked the officer. “Waist size?” “Shoe size?”

After being issued squeaky new black sneakers, a thick denim coat, a button-up shirt, underwear, socks, a belt and a padlock for their locker, the inmates went through a more invasive search before they could sit down to their deli sandwich, salad and potato chip lunch.

“We check their hair, behind their ears, in their mouth, they have to lift their tongue,” said Correctional Officer Paul Richter. “Then, you know, the anatomy. Lift, separate and cough twice.”

Calvin Sterling, inmate No. 11939745, had no idea where he was heading this morning when an officer told him he had to take the cornrows out of his hair.

“I just had my hair braided, too ... I’m not happy right now,” he joked.

For a brief moment, Sterling, 30, who is serving a seven-year sentence for a rape conviction, was disappointed his move made the distance between his mom, who lives in Klamath Falls, and him greater. But a second later, he pointed out that the first inmates at Deer Ridge will be given first dibs on all the best jobs.

“And I like the scenery, all the mountains,” he added. “We’re the first group, so we’re lucky.”

Michael Emmett Fussell, 23, who grew up in Bend and Klamath Falls, was happy to find out he would be closer to his mom, who lives in Redmond. He agreed that those picked to live in Deer Ridge were lucky, but pointed out how relative the word “luck” can be.

“It’s lucky you get a good job,” said Fussell, who was convicted of robbery. “That’s lucky, but at the same time you’re doing time in prison.”

For him, it was odd driving through Bend, a city he grew up in and hadn’t seen in a long time.

“Driving through here you realize all the missed opportunities,” he said. “Bend has changed a lot. You don’t think about it when you are in an institution.”

The next group of inmates is expected to arrive either Wednesday or Thursday of this week. The institution will continue to receive prisoners until the first 108 have arrived, and then it will be on standby until November. The minimum-security prison will hold 644 prisoners at full capacity.

“The entire atmosphere of this institution has changed in the past four hours,” said Parrish Van Wert, community development coordinator.

“We’ve been working for this day for a long time,” Berry said. “It’s been an unbelievable team effort.”

When Van Wert and Berry left the facility, there were a couple of inmates waiting to load large wooden desks into the prison.

“Ha, labor,” Berry said. “Up until this point all the labor has been done by the officers.”

Anonymous said...

BROKEN TOP WAR DECLARED OVER, BRENNEKE DOA

http://www.boxstar.net/BTNews/Stipulated%20Order%20Final%202.pdf

I don't know if you guys so this, but its ALL over for Brenneke,

He wasn't that smart, and he got hosed, by the local system,

Note now it Kurateks turn,

Anonymous said...

otherwise BendBust will reformat it as RPG with JCL.

That fits right in with bendbust's stated desire to live in the past.

*

I would take the 'old bend' anyday of xc-skiing with your dog, hunting, fishing, living, ...

Now its fucking condos, condo-hos, time-shares, fucking fluffy shit store downtown, too many fucking CALIS,

FUCK YOUR NEW BEND.

Everybody in the universe knows that the New Bend is a NAZI paradise. White people have finally figured out how to create the perfect white society, trouble is they have to bring in Mexicans to do their shit work.

Perhaps with ALL the new prisons coming to Central Oregon, some skin-head youth can be loaned out to do the tasks? Then Central-Oregon can be deemed 100% white.

Anonymous said...

I would take the 'old bend' anyday of xc-skiing with your dog, hunting, fishing, living, ...

Now its fucking condos, condo-hos, time-shares, fucking fluffy shit store downtown, too many fucking CALIS,

FUCK YOUR NEW BEND.


In other words, you prefer fantasy to reality. Open your eyes bendbust-boy, the reality is that Bend isn't ever going back to the golden days you remember from 25 years ago (when the city was economically depressed, which only appears golden through the haze of memory). No matter how much hate you spew on this blog, it won't make a bit of difference.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

“Then, you know, the anatomy. Lift, separate and cough twice.”

What, are they making porno's at the new prison?

per Duncan:

Finally, just a small mention of partners, but it made me wonder if the real reason Boomtown is closing is because the building is worth so much more than the business could ever bring in....

Dang right. This is just the bizarro sort of crap that happens in a mega-bubble. They own the building AND the business in it, and the business, which just happens to give the building value, is better dead than alive. Carried to ludicrious extremes, EVERY business is better DEAD than alive in Bend, which means the buildings are actually worth NOTHING as the entire reason for their existence is to house a business. Only possible if THE NEXT GUY is willing to throw more money at a loser than the current guy. When The Next Guy gots no money, the cycle crashes & implodes.

This town is practically overwhelmed with unworkable business plans. Take away RE, and it's the VAST majority. Commercial, which has been strong to date in Bend, will fall harder & farther than anything. Downtown will start to empty, the empty begets empty, and these Big Shots will find themselves sitting on multi-million dollar losses.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

In other words, you prefer fantasy to reality. Open your eyes bendbust-boy, the reality is that Bend isn't ever going back to the golden days you remember from 25 years ago (when the city was economically depressed, which only appears golden through the haze of memory). No matter how much hate you spew on this blog, it won't make a bit of difference.

Hell, I've only been here 6 years, and I'm not sure it's even possible to return to THAT era. It's probably not really preferable. Progress marches on. What I think many will regret, and maybe it's what Buster is talking about, is in an era of quasi-depressed prices there's some semblance of economic opportunity, you can buy low & possibly sell a little higher. In hyper-bubble-to-bust times it's just a death spiral lower.... everything falling, everyone losing money, people losing jobs, and even good, well executed ideas are carried down the toilet to destruction.

This place is looking at a forced liquidation downward spiral that will take down The Bad (that's OK), but it'll also take down The Good (which might have a fighting chance in normal or even depressed times).

This towns sole business model is THE NEXT BIGGER RICHER SUCKER WILL BAIL ME OUT. It's worked like a charm for quite a long time. But it was also dependent on an ever-expanding credit cycle, which has stopped dead. I actually think that if Buster wants a mini-depression in Bend, he's likely to get it. Anyone who's banked equity in the past 3-4 years will clean up.... those who borrowed to buy will be destroyed.

Anonymous said...

I actually think that if Buster wants a mini-depression in Bend, he's likely to get it. Anyone who's banked equity in the past 3-4 years will clean up.... those who borrowed to buy will be destroyed.

So IHTBYB, are you one of those people who banked substantial equity and who's waiting to clean up when the destruction happens? If not, why are you living here when you're convinced a mini-depression will soon engulf our fair town?

Anonymous said...


In other words, you prefer fantasy to reality. Open your eyes bendbust-boy, the reality is that Bend isn't ever going back to the golden days you remember from 25 years ago (when the city was economically depressed, which only appears golden through the haze of memory). No matter how much hate you spew on this blog, it won't make a bit of difference.


My sentiments exactly. I'm so sick of the endless bitching and weak sauce nostalgia. The complaining about lack of artists what a joke. What art are you creating? How do you make this town a better place to live instead of just coming here and spewing vitriol?

Anonymous said...

The lesson for Brenneke and his ilk need to learn is don't f*ck with Broken Top. Like many before him, he was spit out the back end.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

So IHTBYB, are you one of those people who banked substantial equity and who's waiting to clean up when the destruction happens? If not, why are you living here when you're convinced a mini-depression will soon engulf our fair town?

Shouldn't you be out "MARKETING"... get listings and all? But I appreciate your concern.

Anonymous said...

Shouldn't you be out "MARKETING"... get listings and all? But I appreciate your concern.

Excellent non-answer. You ought to get into PR and marketing yourself.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

You ought to get into PR and marketing yourself.

What makes you think I'm not?

Anonymous said...

What makes you think I'm not?

On the Internet, nobody knows you're a dog.

[img]http://www.unc.edu/courses/jomc050/sum97/dog3.gif[/img]

Anonymous said...

How do you make this town a better place to live instead of just coming here and spewing vitriol?
*
Every night along with the geese I create art in Drake Park.

If it wasn't beautiful, then why are the cops eating it?

Anonymous said...

why are you living here when you're convinced a mini-depression will soon engulf our fair town?
*
CUNTS in denial, look around folks that want to sell are already asking -50%, and that isn't selling.

Just fucking wait, and it will be -80% by next summer.

Anonymous said...

I actually think that if Buster wants a mini-depression in Bend, he's likely to get it.
*
Yeh, the bubble is ALL busters fault, no fault to the cunts running the SORE or BULL, no fault to the condo-hos, no fault, to anyone,...

Anonymous said...

I would take the 'old bend' anyday of xc-skiing with your dog, hunting, fishing, living, ...

*

Please one of your condo-ho worshipping pig-shit eaters, tell me why giving up skiing with the dog, hunting, and fishing near the old-mill is worth giving up for what we have now?

I want to hear how its fucking better, the problem is ALL you cunts are newbies, and have no fucking idea what we lost to gain the condo-hos.

Anonymous said...

CUNTS in denial, look around folks that want to sell are already asking -50%, and that isn't selling.

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and bendbust's statistics.

Anonymous said...

The lesson for Brenneke and his ilk need to learn is don't f*ck with Broken Top. Like many before him, he was spit out the back end.
* NEWS FLASH-It AINT OVER
I wish it was over, had a meeting today up a Broken-Top, we have knocked Brenneke #1 off the wall, he's done and out. Now Brenneke #2 has initiated a second lawsuit, its most likely the BT owner will never pull enough suckers together to complete the buyout per terms of the abrbitrator. Beginning to look like a hollow victory, a smart person would be selling their BT RE, and looking for a new park out their window. It seems that ALL Brenneke brothers are destined to expend ALL their life savings on lawyers, thus anyone that ante's up is playing an old lose-lose game.

Lose-Lose with a moron FAMILY with money is never a good idea, unless your a fucking dentist, lawyer, cpa, doctor, .e.g. someone who things money grows on trees.

The Brenneke has NOW entered the Hatfield vs McCoys stage, and the Brennekes are the Hatfields and the BT owners the mcCoys, and ALL playing the game will end up bankrupt, with NOTHING to fucking gain except the right to pay +%695/mo at a fucking goof course.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

CUNTS in denial, look around folks that want to sell are already asking -50%, and that isn't selling.

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies, and bendbust's statistics
*
Folks that want to SELL, that MUST sell are ASKING -50% if they can, those that ASK more have no chance of selling.

The point is?

We're exactly ONE-YEAR into the BUST and we already have paralysis, this one will be worst than the great depression which was down -90%.

The bottom will not even be here until 2012, thus please be patient and enjoy the ride.

Anonymous said...

Lose-Lose with a moron FAMILY with money is never a good idea, unless your a fucking dentist, lawyer, cpa, doctor, .e.g. someone who things money grows on trees.

It's a shame they don't pay brilliant Geophysical Scientists like bendbust much money these days, but lots of other people make plenty of money so get over your bitterness bendbust.

We're exactly ONE-YEAR into the BUST and we already have paralysis, this one will be worst than the great depression which was down -90%.

Bendbust is our own version of Chicken Little, endlessly repeating "The Sky is Falling". So it's going to be "worst than the great depression" eh? How much worst?

Anonymous said...

endbust is our own version of Chicken Little, endlessly repeating "The Sky is Falling". So it's going to be "worst than the great depression" eh? How much worst?

*

The great depression wasn't that bad, 25% lost their job, and RE went down 90%.

That may make Bend look like the best of times.

p.s. the sky isn't falling, as there isn't enough gravitational density to bring it down.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

Lose-Lose with a moron FAMILY with money is never a good idea, unless your a fucking dentist, lawyer, cpa, doctor, .e.g. someone who things money grows on trees.

It's a shame they don't pay brilliant Geophysical Scientists like bendbust much money these days,
*
Gawd you morons are thick, I try this again.

Dentist, doc's, & lawyers are notorious about losing money, as they didn't have to work for it, lets take one of our Bend plastic tit surgeons, a couple of boob jobs, and he just paid for his BT fee.

The problem here, and I'll repeat, and this is a LOT like jumping into a pool of feeding sharks, the BT fraternity is mostly docs, dentists, and lucky lawyers who think money grows on trees. The Brennke family is on a vendetta is willing to lose all to get even with BEND. This is a lose-lose game for morons, keep and distance and watch the show.

No jealousy here, there's an old saying NEVER do business with a doc, lawyer, or dentist,... why? becuase they don't care if they lose $50k, ... thats just a few months, a regular person actually cares about $50k. This is NO profound wisdom, theres also the old joke about the shoe-shine boy buying stock during the depression. How did he know it was time to buy? Because his doc/dentist was talking about stock. IN summary doc's, dentists, and lawyers are the pathetic investors of the world.

Let's use a useful reference frame for you FUCKING MORONS of bend,

Note that buffet, gates, ... most rich people for that matter, really fucking rich are not lawyers, docs, and dentists, why pray tell?

Because every dollar a common man invests he watches like a hawk, dentist, doc, and lawyers don't really care, because money grows on trees, this loss of 100% concern is why most laywers, docs, and dentists in spite of their income are rarely rich.

Gawd, why do I have to explain this shit to you people? Isn't there one pathetic rich person in Bend who understands how things work?

Anonymous said...

The Brennke family is on a vendetta is willing to lose all to get even with BEND. This is a lose-lose game for morons, keep and distance and watch the show.
*
What are you trying to say?
...

What I'm trying to say is that while Bend has knocked Brenneke brother #1 out the game, now the whole fucking family has stepped in and filed a new class action lawsuit against Bend.

I'll say one more thing, perhaps two.

First of ALL if the judge had of written that Brenneke who lost round#1 was to pay ALL legal fees, then it would have knocked him out, but the fact is the even though he lost for some bizzare reason, and MOST likely because BT is 'rich' Brenneke didn't have to pay loser fees.

The second issue is the first $3Million dollars is still missing, nobody knows where its at, theory is Brenneke will use it all to continue the fight as at this point its lose-lose, thus like a DUBYA he can continue to fight with other peoples money, and thus might win, and if he loses OTHER people's money picks up the bill.

I really feel for the first round of BT suckers that put up +$50k, and now must put up more, only to be told they didn't put up any money, nor it there any record of having done so, ... ITs like Brenneke just keeps taking money in a like a black whole.

So yes, he lost the first round, but the deschutes county judge has given the case a Iraq style permanent life status. AT this point ALL lawyers can only gain by keep playing the game.

The OUTCOME now will be the ALL BRENNEKES will be wiped out financially and ALL BT homeowners and golfers that hang around.

In summary, smart folks shout run, and wait, as in a year or two this shit will be available for pennys on the dollar.

Anonymous said...

Because every dollar a common man invests he watches like a hawk, dentist, doc, and lawyers don't really care, because money grows on trees, this loss of 100% concern is why most laywers, docs, and dentists in spite of their income are rarely rich.

So the wealthy doctors and dentists I know must be statistical anomalies, according to bendbust's twisted logic. Next he'll be redefining the word rich like he did with the word resident.

Gawd, why do I have to explain this shit to you people? Isn't there one pathetic rich person in Bend who understands how things work?

Let's see, could it be because you're wrong?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

condo-ho worshipping pig-shit eaters

How was Happy Hour at Silver Moon? They got seriously good beer there.

Anonymous said...

Backing out on Juniper Ridge plans could cost city of Bend
By Peter Sachs / The Bulletin
Published: September 12. 2007 5:00AM PST

If there’s one phrase that comes up again and again in discussions about the guiding document between the city of Bend and the master developer for Juniper Ridge, it’s “handshake agreement.”

The 13-page document signed just over a year ago is all nonbinding, except for the last paragraph.

The strength of that paragraph, even while everything else is just a handshake, all but forces the city to keep moving ahead with its negotiations over the 1,500-acre city-owned site, or risk spending millions of dollars in reimbursements and legal fees, officials and observers agree.

While city officials and Juniper Ridge Partners both said they are firm on moving forward to reach a formal development contract, a 450-signature petition brought to the Bend City Council last week raised the “what if” about backing out. Backing out of the agreement could cost the city $2.5 million and possibly entangle it in a legal battle, according to Bend City Councilor Jim Clinton.

What does the mou say?
The city signed its memorandum of understanding with Juniper Ridge Partners on Sept. 8, 2006. Most of its 13 pages outline goals and provisions that will likely be included in a forthcoming formal development contract. It includes a preliminary breakdown of who will pay for early construction costs, how profits will eventually be split up and some of the concepts and terms in the design plans.
The MOU describes how Juniper Ridge Partners, the city and an investment company — unnamed at the time but currently the insurance company AIG — will divide up early land sales, who will front money for which parts of the project, and how everyone will recover their costs once Juniper Ridge comes to fruition.
All but the last paragraph of the document is nonbinding.
The last paragraph requires that both sides “exclusively negotiate, in good faith,” the terms of the development contract, which is also known as the disposition and development agreement or DDA. Since the one-year mark of the signing of the MOU has already passed without a DDA, the final paragraph remains in force until six months after the end of all appeals on the city’s urban growth boundary expansion process. Observers agree that point might not come until 2009 or much later.
— Peter Sachs
The petition’s backers, including nine former mayors, argue that the city’s finances are at risk and the project’s future has too many unknowns. But the city and the master developer both want people to wait for a final agreement before launching their critiques.

“We’d like to have our chance to show people what we’ve been doing the last year to make this a great project for the city,” said Jeff Holzman, who is part of Juniper Ridge Partners.

The city hopes its land will eventually hold thousands of homes, a university, performing arts center, research and development park, and other businesses.

The master developer, Juniper Ridge Partners, has been coordinating the master plan, which sets broad parameters for how the final project will be laid out, including the placement of streets and areas for homes and businesses.

The binding paragraph of the document, called the memorandum of understanding requires that both sides negotiate only with each other on the terms of building Juniper Ridge. And that exclusive relationship potentially won’t expire for years. If the city backs out, that could bring forth an expensive and lengthy breach of contract lawsuit.

“If (the city) did not negotiate in good faith, subject to interpretation, then it could be subject to a breach of contract lawsuit,” Clinton said. Clinton has been involved heavily in both the MOU and the upcoming development contract.

The last paragraph remains binding until six months after any appeals to the city’s urban growth boundary expansion. With the city and county planning a series of work sessions that may not wrap up until January, and another set of hearings required after that, it could be the middle of 2008 before the UGB is ready. But disgruntled landowners have already threatened to sue, and any appeals could take several years, Clinton said.

“Clearly, that would not only delay development of Juniper Ridge, it would delay development in a lot of areas around the city,” he said.

But the UGB issues aside, the very fact that part of the MOU is binding has the project’s critics concerned.

“An MOU in my estimation is a firm handshake, but it’s not designed to be binding,” said former Mayor Oran Teater, who is helping lead the ongoing petition drive. “It’s supposed to give you a lead to where you’re headed.”

By all estimates, while a dozen pages of the MOU may be only a handshake e_SEmD a term that Clinton, Teater and other observers have all used e_SEmD the last paragraph carries more weight. So is the MOU still just a handshake?

“If they were correct about that statement to the public in 2006, they need to consider whether that has somehow changed,” said Bend attorney Bill Buchanan.

Buchanan represents the Bend Chamber of Commerce, which has expressed opposition to Juniper Ridge, though he said Tuesday he was not speaking on behalf of any client.

The Chamber of Commerce, which last summer ran a campaign against Juniper Ridge, has set up a meeting for its members Friday to discuss the project and the UGB expansion.

“I think everybody needs to be very careful to separate the city’s role as a regulator or a government versus its role as a developer,” Buchanan said.

In August 2006, when the City Council approved the MOU before it was signed, the council unanimously agreed to strike the binding last section, widely referred to as paragraph 11.5, and renegotiate for different wording that would not leave the city stuck in exclusive negotiations for such a long time.

At the next City Council meeting Sept. 6, two days before the MOU was signed, the modified version of paragraph 11.5, looking much as it did before, came back up for a vote. After a brief discussion, the council approved it by a vote of 5-1, even though it locked the city into a long-term period of negotiation.

One part of that paragraph says that if both sides agree not to move forward, then the city still owes up to $2.5 million to cover the money Juniper Ridge Partners has spent on design consultants and creating the master plan.

“Both sides thought it was fair that if the MOU didn’t result in a contract, that somehow the money they had spent in the meantime would be reimbursed to a certain level,” Clinton said.

Tying the negotiation period to the urban growth boundary expansion, rather than a specific date, puts the city in a poor position, Teater contended.

“What kind of a hole are we going to be in if we move forward and not every single thing works out?” he asked.

To Teater’s eyes, swallowing the $2.5 million mandatory reimbursement seems to be the best option for the city, given the uncertainty and opposition to expanding the UGB.

“What happens if they go to the next step and they do let the community review this thing?” he said. “They don’t change it, they sign it, and we’re still stuck with this developer.”

Clinton and others said that Juniper Ridge’s critics should hold their complaints until the development contract is complete and released to the public to review.

Clinton said, “Give us a chance to do the best that we can with it, and then we’re welcoming everybody to weigh in.”

Anonymous said...

Backing out of the agreement could cost the city $2.5 million and possibly entangle it in a legal battle, according to Bend City Councilor Jim Clinton.
*
Has BEND BUST NOT been writing about this secret MOU for ONE FUCKING YEAR.

WHY is this news.

I agree, the city fucks people all of the time, all they have to tell Kuratek, is we're going to do to you, what you have done to all our clients in the past.

Game-Over.

Like I have been saying for almost a year, its like everyone knew all along that Juniper-Ridge was GOING NO where when UBS pulled out August 2006. Yet, everyone kept going through the motions, spending money on PR firms and attorneys, knowing that city would always pick up the tab on ALL.

ZERO RISK deal from day one for KURATEK? WHY business is NEVER zero-risk.

Bend city council is alice in wonderland - Biz.

Anonymous said...

The master developer, Juniper Ridge Partners, has been coordinating the master plan

*

Note here never is the VILE name used "Ray Kuratek"

He is the master-builder, he is the master-developer, he is Juniper-Ridge.

He personally gets a check for $2.5M if the city kills the deal.

WHY is the FUCKING BULL afraid to tell the truth that 'Juniper Ridge Partners' is just a fucking LLC front so that Kuratek cannot be sued.

Anonymous said...

Clinton and others said that Juniper Ridge’s critics should hold their complaints until the development contract is complete and released to the public to review

*

KEEP YOUR MOUTH SHUT UNTIL the city is bankrupt.

HOW DUBYA.

Clinton is a POL that only a parasitic electorate could love.

Anonymous said...

anomalies, according to bendbust's twisted logic. Next he'll be redefining the word rich like he did with the word resident.
*
Long ago I defined rich.

Anonymous said...

But the city and the master developer both want people to wait for a final agreement before launching their critiques.
*

The master developer is ONE FUCKING person "ray kuratek".

who the fuck is the city? Most likely its JUST clinton as this appears to be the only fucking person the BULL could get.

Seems like Clinton/Kuratek are a team. Note NOT one fucking mention that the MOU was a secret doc, and that it required a fucking legal action from chamber of commerce to make public, why should a 'hand-shake' be secret? Because from day-one ALL this shit was bad for the city.

Anonymous said...

So the wealthy doctors and dentists I know must be statistical anomalies, according to bendbust's twisted logic.

*

You write like a moron, and thus the only docs and dentists you know are the ones servicing you at the welfare office.

What I have said and this is the third time is that doc&dentists are SHITTY investors, they make up a large population @ BT in part-time living, they'll play the Brenneke game of enriching PDX lawyers until everyone is broke. They'll do this because doc/dentists, and lawyers are stupid businessmen. This is an established fact.

Anonymous said...

In places such as Bend, Ore., and North Las Vegas, Nev., incomes about doubled, but home values increased fivefold.

[ This is not true, while it is true bend homes went up 5X, its NOT true that incomes went up 2X. From 1990 a $100k home easily went to $500k, but income was around $25k, and now around $39k. ]


U.S. incomes lag home values

By STEPHEN OHLEMACHER

The Associated Press

PREV of NEXT

Enlarge this photo

CHRIS CARLSON / AP

Shawn Talbot bought a condo in Santee, Calif., for $431,000 in 2005. With housing prices tumbling in Southern California, her dream of trading up to a single-family home is in jeopardy.

WASHINGTON — Shawn Talbot and Gerry Woodruff were hoping to stay in their new condominium for about three years before trading up to a single-family home in suburban San Diego.

They paid $431,000 for the three-story condo in 2005 — a hefty price in most markets.

But with home values soaring in Southern California, they figured that it wouldn't take long to build enough equity for a down payment in one of the most expensive housing markets in the nation.

Then housing prices started to tumble, and the dream was in jeopardy.

"I'm not sure we will ever be able to afford a single-family home in San Diego," said Talbot, who works for a trade association.

Much of the nation is in a housing slump, and an Associated Press analysis of new census data provides insight into why: Since 1990, homeowners have faced a growing gap between their incomes and the price of their homes.

The widening gap in all but a few of the 500 largest cities helped make the recent boom in U.S. housing prices unsustainable, analysts say.

The higher prices were fueled largely by low interest rates and risky borrowing rather than rising incomes.

"We had an artificial economy," said Brad Geisen, founder of Foreclosure.com, a Web site that lists foreclosure properties. "There was all this wealth created in real estate, and it wasn't really created."

Nationally, the median household income grew about 60 percent from 1990 to 2006, roughly matching inflation. At the same time, the median home value — the point at which half were more and half were less — more than doubled, to $185,200.

In the Seattle-Bellevue-Everett metro area, incomes grew 71 percent between 1990 and 2006 — from $36,338 to $62,179. But home values soared 173 percent — from $136,200 to $371,800.

The gap between incomes and home values was even bigger in other cities.

advertising

For example, incomes in the Miami area roughly kept pace with inflation — meaning they were effectively stagnant — while the median home value quadrupled, to $315,900.

In places such as Bend, Ore., and North Las Vegas, Nev., incomes about doubled, but home values increased fivefold.

Statewide, incomes in Washington rose 69 percent between 1990 and 2006 while home values climbed 187 percent.

Washington ranked seventh in the nation in home-price increases during the period, behind Washington, D.C. (260 percent); Oregon (254); Nevada (231); Florida (201); Arizona (197); and Maryland (190). Neighboring Idaho nearly matched Washington, at 183 percent.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, likened the current housing market to the dot-com boom and bust, a few years ago, when stock prices for many high-tech companies soared — before some turned a profit — and then crashed.

"The parallels are quite similar," Zandi said.

The Census Bureau today is releasing 2006 housing data for every state, county, metro area and city with a population of at least 65,000. Income data were released last month.

Together, the figures provide a snapshot of the nation's economy just as housing prices were peaking in many areas. Since then, housing prices have started to tumble in many markets, fueled by a crisis in the subprime-loan market and dwindling credit even for some wealthier borrowers.

The Associated Press compared the 2006 figures with data from the 1990 census for the 499 cities included in both reports, providing an analysis of long-term trends that helped create today's housing slump.

The analysis showed that homeowners are spending significantly bigger shares of their incomes on housing costs. From 1990 to 2006, the share increased in all but 13 of the cities examined.

Nationally, the share rose from 21 to nearly 25 percent for homeowners with a mortgage.

Many of the cities with large increases in home values were fast-growing cities or places with thriving economies. There were also large disparities in incomes and home values in some distressed cities, mainly because incomes effectively dropped.

For example, incomes in Detroit did not keep pace with inflation from 1990 to 2006, but home values more than tripled, to $91,700.

Home-ownership rates are among historical highs, at 67.3 percent nationally. Booming home values have increased wealth for many families, allowing them to use the equity for home improvements, college expenses, cars and other uses.

"Houses out here are almost like a 401(k)," said Talbot, the suburban San Diego homebuyer. "It grows and grows until you get older and you need it.

"But a year or so ago, all that changed," she said.

Data for the Seattle area and Washington state provided by Seattle Times researcher Gene Balk.

Copyright © 2007 The Seattle Times Company

Bend Economy Man said...

Seems like Clinton/Kuratek are a team. Note NOT one fucking mention that the MOU was a secret doc, and that it required a fucking legal action from chamber of commerce to make public, why should a 'hand-shake' be secret?

To me it wasn't so suspicious that the original Kuratek negotiations were secret or that the Les Schwab negotiations were secret - chalk that up to ignorance of public meeting laws.

It's suspicious that now, after the City Council has been smacked upside the head for their secret business dealings, they're insisting that they negotiate the development contract behind closed doors and only release a "final" copy for public review.

This seems like a big political risk, and yet the City Council seems determined to maintain the secrecy of negotiations. What the hell is going on? You'd think they'd want to shine light on the process - unless they have some skin in the game.

I'm sure all of us know that, left to their own devices, the city council and staff will fumble this one badly. It's as certain as day following night. The question is, why don't they recognize this?

You'd think they'd be like, "hey - this stuff is tough. If you think you're so smart, join the process."

It's suspicious that they want to keep this secret even though they know it's politically stupid to do it.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

To Teater’s eyes, swallowing the $2.5 million mandatory reimbursement seems to be the best option for the city, given the uncertainty and opposition to expanding the UGB.

Wow. Kuratek appears to have scouted out the biggest suckers for 2,000 sq miles in the Bend City Council. He's going to pocket a cool $2.5 mill on these peoples incompetence. ALL should be fired & SUED.

Anonymous said...

This is ALL such BULLSHIT, it was secret MOU, NOBODY but CLINTON/KURATEK ever even knew about the deal. The reason for the deal was that KURATEK was going to secure UBS financing, The second the MOU went public, UBS publicly said they're weren't going to finance Juniper-Ridge. Thus KURATEK had run a con game from day one.

Sure the city will pay this guy off, but let's remember that $2.5M is a HUGE part of the city budget. CLINTON knew there would be opposition so he put in the golden handcuff, and kuratek wanted to get his FULL PAY whether it got built or not, so he got his golden-parachute.

The best part is that Kuratek to date ONLY put $75k into the deal, think of ROI this bitch is getting from the taxpayers.

PLEASE SOMEBODY with a brain in this town, put it out of its misery. If Bend were a horse, it would have been put out to pasture a long time ago.

Again, this ALL goes back to secrecy, the MOU violated open meeting law, and MOU is an agreement, but given that it was created in an illegal fashion, it should be NULL&VOID, and if any party is responsible it should be CLINTON&ASS. This is exactly why HUMMEL got the hell out, being a lawyer he saw this coming.

Anonymous said...

It's suspicious that they want to keep this secret even though they know it's politically stupid to do it. - bem
*
To date its all working, look at todays article by the BULL not a fucking mention of KURATEK or secrecy. Look at the SORE last week they mentioned 'corruption' but NO specifics.
OUR WHOLE fucking media in this town is like the see-no evil, hear-no evil monkey.
So why should City-Council just keep doing things the way they have all along.
Besides this "wait a year", ... is a great tactic its work for DUBYA, and now all local government in USA is playing the same game. The signal has been sent.
Also there is the issue of the PR firm to be hired.

Recall that the guarantee to KURATEK is just his cut a cool $2.5M, what about all the lawyers and PR firms that have made money for the past two years, and future years, we all know JR will never get built, because there is NO BANKER.

The real con job is that insiders in PR, MTG, PLANNING, Architecture, ... Development are and/or will have made a cool $10M off the city on fee's, so who gives a fuck if anything gets built. Its all about creating professional service fee's for lawyers, architects and developers, and planners.

Secrecy has work for two years, NOT fucking PEEP about total liability and cost to date from the SORE or BULL. There's NO fucking way for anybody to know what this boondoggle to date has cost, then theres the $7M just for Les Schwab so they can flush the toilet.

The above said we must return to the parasitic-electorate, so many people in Bend on are on the city payroll and ancillary wrt to this process, certainly this is why the BULL & SORE go along.

Most interesting is the ONLY opposition of BALLS is Chamber, who has been totally left out of process, as making Kuratek master-developer, master-planner, master-builder, this has been an outsiders game from day-one. ALWAYS secret.

They do have an argument for this, good things always have opposition. Thus we had to do it in secret.

Certainly CLINTON or his patrons MUST have land adjoining the 1500 acres ( 0.06 cents/acre selling for $1.6M/acre ), there has to be a reason SO MANY folks in Bend are so desperate to feed the boondoggle with taxpayer dollars.

Anonymous said...

This seems like a big political risk, and yet the City Council seems determined to maintain the secrecy of negotiations. What the hell is going on? You'd think they'd want to shine light on the process - unless they have some skin in the game.
*
At this point the only chance of keeping the money flowing is to keep it secret, e.g. closed.
Once this thing becomes open and starts following law, there are now so many pissed off people the thing will go NO WHERE, thus it is essential to KEEP out the PUBLIC.

Also by keeping it closed, you keep out the MEDIA, who then have no responsibility to report what has happened to taxpayer dollars.

The entire process has become a huge conspiracy, and interesting question is why does the BULL, SORE, and TV media play along?? Certainly there are taxpayers amongst the group? Or is everyone making a nickel in this town on JR service fees??

JR has become a ponzi scheme where everyone has a nickel on the game, but ONLY PR, PLANNING, LEGAL, and KURATEK are at the top of the pyramid, everyone else is going to get fucked.

Shit this town is fucking stupid, but then we already knew that.

Anonymous said...

To Teater’s eyes, swallowing the $2.5 million mandatory reimbursement seems to be the best option for the city, given the uncertainty and opposition to expanding the UGB.
*
That is JUST Kurateks mandatory CUT.

What about DVA the UBS PR firm, they're making a fortune running this show.

The meter is running, and nobody has a fucking clue what it has cost to date in real and future debt.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Anyone else having troubles getting on BendBB's board? Seems to be down.

If it's down & you guys (BendBB, Tim, et al) want to leave status msg's here, go for it....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

This is exactly why HUMMEL got the hell out, being a lawyer he saw this coming.

Hummel ought to be sued with the rest of those idiots.

Every single one got on City Council to peddle influence. They saw Chris Telfer essentially get $10K/mo free marketing for her CPA business, and though "Me too". These people don't give a shit about public service, due diligence, or anything else, except lining their own pockets, or the pockets of their supporters.

I predict a wave of City Council resignations. The RE bubble bursting has killed the Influence Peddler business plan of City Councilors, and they are getting pistol whipped by a populous that is pretty pissed off about their continued secrecy, PR-hijinx, and just total lack of commonsense & even the barest due diligence.

That $2.5 mill is going to be like scratching a bloody open scab. People are PISSED.

Anonymous said...

Anyone else having troubles getting on BendBB's board? Seems to be down.

If it's down & you guys (BendBB, Tim, et al) want to leave status msg's here, go for it....


I just posted a test message on the bulletin board and it worked fine for me. What kind of trouble are you seeing?

-- bendbb

Anonymous said...

BendBB requires a login now to see it. What a pain.

Anonymous said...

BendBB requires a login now to see it. What a pain.

According to informe.com support they are upgrading the forum software today. Let's see if the problem persists after the upgrade is complete. In the meantime it appears you'll need to login to use the bulletin board.

-- bendbb

bendbuttress said...

Anyone else having troubles getting on BendBB's board? Seems to be down.
*
I always have trouble getting on bendbb, he seems to be angry with me. Perhaps something I said?

Anonymous said...

I predict a wave of City Council resignations.
*
Not going to happen, where is the media?

Note the media is 0bviously somehow on the bandwagon.

Certainly if you PR, legal, design, planning, architect, building, construction, ... Did I miss anyone, then even now for the past two years you have been on the JR payroll for millions of taxpayer dollars.

Why would anyone want this to end?

Everyone knows there's never going to be a JR, but theres going be lots of pretty pictures and legal bills.

Why should city-council quit doing shit in the dark and violating state open meeting law, to date NADA no one anywhere has had the balls to file a formal complaint.

The city attorney is out to lunch 24/7, this thing could milk Bend for years, shit the bubble could be over before DVA quits getting monthly billings.

At NO time ever has ANY media in the country EVER actually document what has transpired to date, I guess we're all just waiting for a fucking revelation that's only been posted here 100+ fucking times.

Anonymous said...

We're fucked. Yesterday we had a Y2K crisis with bendbb's data.


Today we're having a fucking crisis because bendbb's fucking trojan-horse server is down.

What the hell could happen tomorrow? Could bendbb run out of KY jelly?

Anonymous said...

I always have trouble getting on bendbb, he seems to be angry with me. Perhaps something I said?

Bendbust, you broke the rules, you live with the consequences.

-- bendbb

Anonymous said...

"You can't learn if you are wondering where you are going to sleep at night," Castillo said.
{ WHAT FUCKING BS, any street kid, knows exactly wheres he's going to sleep and whom with. This bozo doesn't have a clue. }

More Bend-La Pine students are homeless

Sep 12, 2007 07:53 AM
[Ad]

From KTVZ.COM news sources

More Bend-La Pine Schools students were identified as homeless during the 2005-06 school year than ever before, the district reported Wednesday.

In all, 518 of Bend-La Pine Schools 15,322 students were identified as being homeless - 3.38% of total enrollment. Comparatively, during the 2004-05 school year, 391 students, or 2.62%, were identified as being homeless.

Students who live in shelters, hotels/motels, in cars or other outdoor areas, or with friends are considered homeless according to the federal definition of homelessness.

Bend-La Pine Schools Student Services Assistant Director Dana Arntson attributes much of the increase in identification to coordination between the district's Family Access Network (FAN) advocates and the Project HELP coordinator homeless liaison positions.

"The main job of these positions is to ensure that barriers to a student's education are reduced," Arntson says. "While FAN Advocates work to assist students and/or families with basic needs, such as school supplies, the Project HELP Coordinator assists families in enrolling students in school, signing them up for free meals, and setting up transportation plans to ensure that they remain at their home school, even during times of homelessness - to name a few."

State School Superintendent Susan Castillo echoes the importance of the work Bend-La Pine Schools is doing to provide every student with equal educational opportunities.

"You can't learn if you are wondering where you are going to sleep at night," Castillo said.

"They also work to provide homeless students with a consistent school environment. While we can't provide housing, we can provide education - and that's a major factor in preventing chronic poverty and homelessness in future generations," she adds.

This school year marks the fifth year t

Bend Economy Man said...

I would never mess with perfection, Paul, but I think sometime you should do a "bust-o-meter" on Central Oregon grand schemes falling victim to the RE bust.

So far the bust tally (I'm probably omitting a lot) includes:

- The Shire
- the vacant lot next to Bend Brewery
- the vacant lot by Deschutes Brewery
- Brooks Resources development at Miller's Landing
- south Bend frontage road
- safety equipment to keep freight trains from blowing whistle through Bend

What next?

- Mercato
- destination resort or two
- Redmond water park
- Juniper Ridge
- condo hotels in Old Mill District
- Redmond downtown renewal plan
- Trader Joe's
- BendFilm
- additional NWX phases
- Orion Greens redevelopment
- anything in Prineville?

Anyone care to make a prediction as to when we see the first housing development golf course "revert to nature"?

Anonymous said...

- additional NWX phases
*
It's already been declared dead, a few days ago up there a resident told us that they were told that ALL new building has now been stopped.

Anonymous said...

What next?

- Mercato
[ It's dead too big, they want to get rid the 80 people scale down to 8, and be the size of The Deep, mercato 'may' survive but nothing like current, box becomes urban retail ]

- destination resort or two
- Redmond water park
[ show me the money ]

- Juniper Ridge
[ dead, but city will still pay $10m for services, and get nothing but pictures in return ]

- condo hotels in Old Mill District
[ dead, money is no longer avail ]

- Redmond downtown renewal plan
[ this actually has a decent chance, given the airport, and the fact that its NOT a cheap tourist town, I would say +50% this will still happen ]

- Trader Joe's
[ one of the few things we have no control of, it will be a success, in spite of US ]

- BendFilm
[ dead, bend budget given that $10M stolen by juniper-ridge birds of a feather theft society, there will be NO city money in future for any art or park for years to come ]

- additional NWX phases
[ halted, as they cannot dump the stuff already built ]

- Orion Greens redevelopment
[ if M49 passes and IF they can get chinese money, otherwise NADA ]

- anything in Prineville?
[ in 30 years when inventory has been cleared ]

Anonymous said...

Bendbust, you broke the rules, you live with the consequences.

-- bendbb
*
It's not your BB, its your partys that I miss.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

What kind of trouble are you seeing?

Not Found

The requested URL /real-estate-df2.html was not found on this server.
Apache/2.0.54 (Fedora) Server at bendeconomy.informe.com Port 80

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I predict a wave of City Council resignations.

I don't think they'll be coerced or anything. I just think that since being a Bend City Councilor does not serve their selfish aims, they'll just quit. Too much work for the bennie's they get out of it.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I would never mess with perfection, Paul, but I think sometime you should do a "bust-o-meter" on Central Oregon grand schemes falling victim to the RE bust.

Like the IMPODE-O-METER!

How funny... I was just thinking about something like this too today...

Timothy said...

>>- Orion Greens redevelopment

Really? Any chance the public course could reopen? Or did they already bulldoze it?

Anonymous said...

-Trader Joe's
[ one of the few things we have no control of, it will be a success, in spite of US ]
------------

That's right TJ's will thrive!

We loooovvvveee Trader Joes. Right next to GI Joes (now named just Joes, due to the Iraq war). The joes brothers should merge. Buy yer 2buckChuck and quart of oil, maybe some 9mm shells!

Anonymous said...

That's the great thing about Bend. All these wonderful stores to the North and East, yet the ability to live right int the forest to the West. It's paradise.

Anonymous said...

Yes, I love Bend. I can solicit tourist for money all day at walmart, then at head south to DRW for a snooze.

I can go north and work lowes and homedepot, and costco to the east. After a long day I can head up skyline in my rig, and camp on the tumalo river.

I love bend.

Anonymous said...

>>- Orion Greens redevelopment

Really? Any chance the public course could reopen? Or did they already bulldoze it?
*
It's going to take ONE STUPID out of town sucker to buy this golf bitch.

Ergo, wait for M49 to pass, and then Aaron Switzer of the Source is going to find a Chinese investor. Then Orion Greens will be bigger and better than Tetherow.

Anonymous said...

That's the great thing about Bend. All these wonderful stores to the North and East
*
There's virtually no competition in Bend for panhandling.

This is a paradise.

The average panhandler in Oregon makes $47k/yr tax free ( willamette week summer 07 report ). The household income in Bend makes $40k/yr ( wiki ), when you consider the loss to taxes, the average bend panhandler has twice cash to spend freely, as the person in bend working two jobs.

Anonymous said...

That's right TJ's will thrive!

*

TJ could make Bend livable, but I don't see how driving to the North traffic hell zone will be a pleasant experience.

I wish they had put it in the certain of town. That said TJ is about trucking, and I'm sure they wanted it as close to Santiam Pass as possible.

Olive Oil, cheese, dog-food, frozen-fish. Newport will definitely take a big hit. The wine isn't that great, the cheese is excellent and so is the oils, dry goods and frozen foods.

Just talking to a kid yesterday who said that all his friends are not buying a lift pass this season and most are moving out of Bend. They figure one year it will be like Eugene. In terms of size, and economic stagnation. Bend is NOT cool anymore. Thus I think its fitting that Bend become a Medford/Springfield. Just another high density dumpy little city along a highway corridor.

Note Bend is not Aspen, never will be, never has been.

Anonymous said...

- Redmond downtown renewal plan
[ this actually has a decent chance, given the airport, and the fact that its NOT a cheap tourist town, I would say +50% this will still happen ]
*
If they kill the water slide. Focus on infrastructure, and build a lot of cheap homes. Redmond will thrive, because they have the jobs. It will be the LAPINE, of the future. All the rent-a-cop biz is based in Redmond, our biggest employer. In the day folks worked in Bend, and slept in LAPINE.

In time Redmond will economically be more powerful that Bend. Also Redmond is all family, and thus its old boy incest, not out of town fuck the locals. No stupid $10M to PR firms and cali hucksters in Redmond. All money is kept in the family. Thus Redmond will pull ahead of Bend.


Bend will become a town of broken dreams and bankruptcy. NADA a bill was paid during the boom in Bend, and ALL the debt will come due, such as weak SDC's. The $10M for a the dead Juniper-Ridge will kill all FUN projects in bend for a generation. The inventory of big homes that nobody wants, remember the RICH are going to get the HELL out of BEND quick now that it isn't cool.

Taxes in Bend will skyrocket, business license fee will be like PDX 1% of gross before taxes, thus ALL biz will leave Bend.

It will take a generation to payoff the out of town hucksters for all the secret MOU's that were signed on the taxpayer behalf for "Studys".

Bend is fucked, and Redmond will be an example of a well managed city. Bend will be an example of the infamous 2006 real estate bust where out of town bankers ( UBS ) stole a town, and with the help of PR ( DVA ) drove up prices 5X, and built mcMansions that had no buyers.

Bend will be the stuff of legends for generations in Central Oregon. In time Bend will be looked down lower than LA-PINES.

The triangle of madras-priny-reddy will be the industrial future of central Oregon.

Bend will be a permanent joke to all working people for generations in Oregon. A classic example of what happens when faux rich liberals are allowed to run a city.

Timothy said...

>>Just talking to a kid yesterday who said that all his friends are not buying a lift pass this season and most are moving out of Bend. They figure one year it will be like Eugene. In terms of size, and economic stagnation. Bend is NOT cool anymore.

The trend-setters already left. The tragically unhip are who we should expect to be our new neighbors next year. The people who are behind every curve.

Anonymous said...

- BendFilm
[ dead, bend budget given that $10M stolen by juniper-ridge birds of a feather theft society, there will be NO city money in future for any art or park for years to come ]

---------


I just moved to Bend. I don't want to panhandle in the elements.

This "Bend Birds of a Feather Theft Society" has my interest. How do I join?

Do you have to work for the city? Do you have to be a lawyer, architect, public relations person?

I need an easy way to make a lot of money in Bend?

How can I do this?

I don't want to go to jail, thus I want to do something that has all the power of the court behind the pilfering.

Where do I start? Who do I contact?

Anonymous said...

The trend-setters already left. The tragically unhip are who we should expect to be our new neighbors next year. The people who are behind every curve.
*

I agree T, I think that Aug 2005, was the peak, Merenda, Bend was written up as a gastronomical paradise in Gastronomy magazine. That was it peak on day one. We probably know that, that rating was paid for by DVA ( PR city money ), like all the other 'bend is best' magazine ratings.

Perhaps 2002->2005 bend was cool? By 2006 you had to have dumped your real estate, ...

I still meet realtors at deschutes pub who are moving here, they're almost always renters at broken-top, living off their savings, middle age guys, with only 1-2 years in real estate. I agree these guys are not cool, but they want to learn to golf. Thus there is hope.

Yes, the very uncool will continue to move bend. Folks that believe what they read, because they don't know. Like reading outside magazine that bend is #1, if you didn't know anything about biking, then you would check it out, and like all first experience you would say "this is best", because its all you know. ...

Bend needs new money, this town is built on new suckers coming in, thus the talk of the 1/2 million BUS from the airport to hotels, and MT-B.

That will be the best thing about Bend NOT being cool, is watching the tourist dollar here implode. There is NO way in hell that bend can be marketed as a tourist town, given that the PR-MARKETING budget has been used as a piggy bank for cronyism.

Bend is NOT a tourist town, its a carny town, its a dirty little carnival fake front town of events designed to get suckers to buy time-shares. Only sleaze bags fall for this crap, true wealth or sophisticates run like hell from this shit.

Its probably fitting the biggest events of the future in central oregon are RV rally's. A penny pinching hoard of locust. Everyone a Walmart convert.

Yes, Bend is VERY uncool.

ALL of Bend is a false mirage built on PR by DVA, courtesy of City of Bend, courtesy of Bend taxpayers without their permission ( secret MOU's ). I see a day soon when ALL the PR firms in Bend get ran out of town, and those that signed the checks.

ALL the PR in Bend will not turn this shitty little time-share sales office of a town into anything other than it is. Eagle Crest and Sunriver are getting OLD, and NOBODY is going to invest in this shit.

At some point the condo-hos that sell this shit will like old street whores, that can no longer flat back. You see them working at bowling alleys serving coffee, and at truck stops.

This is the future of Bend.

Smart people will get the hell out because the amount of taxes due to pay the debt will never return to the taxpayer, as the 'service' was long ago provided, and today we have massive debt, and MUST pay for the party of the past.

Anonymous said...

Not Found

The requested URL /real-estate-df2.html was not found on this server.
Apache/2.0.54 (Fedora) Server at bendeconomy.informe.com Port 80


The informe.com support team has fixed the problem with the bulletin board and you can use it without logging in now.

-- bendbb

Anonymous said...

The informe.com support team has fixed the problem with the bulletin board and you can use it without logging in now.

-- bendbb

-------------------------------------

Operation Trojan Horse is back on Line.

Informe.com is owned by the largest junk mail firm in New Jersey. We're please to sell targeted advertising based on IP interests.

Please visit informe.com today.

Anonymous said...

Broken Top SITREP 13SEP2007

The 3 million is still missing, and not accounted for.

A few Broken top owners have formed a rich persons pool, and have said that they'll purchase the club acting on behalf of owners.

A brother of Brenneke has filed a lawsuit to break the recent judges decision, and to seek venue in Portland, or preferably Seattle, as its now suspect that Deschutes County is biased against the Brenneke family.

This has now become a war, as the Brenneke family is putting all their war tools ( money ) behind the cause. The richest people in Bend are out to waste their resources ( money ) on fighting for ownership of Broken Top.

In the latest complaint brother Paul Brenneke of Seattle has filed a complaint against Bend, an appeal against Descutes County, and an appeal to change venue on all future decisions to Seattle.

This latest complaint could be a tool to be used as leverage during arbitration.

Brenneke wants $12M, he is said to have paid $6M for BT with no real money having changed hands. Last year they took in $3M from members who were to buy the club that is still un-accounted for. This is a major problem. Where is the money? Who has the money? Did it go to Weston or Bauhofer, e.g. did Brenneke 'buy' BT with club-members money?

Club member's still think they can buy BT for $6M, which includes the $3M already paid. Of course on paper this would mean no profit for Brenneke. Thus the new complaint could force the the club members to ante more money.

Personal opinion here, there are about 1/2 dozen real VERY stupid rich people at broken-top that are at war with Brenneke, tax accountants and lawyers represent the BT-CLUB board, and thus with their effort and rich developer/builder money of people who love the golf course and the current BT climate (sic). On the other hand you have Paul & Tom Brenneke who are NOT going to let a little desert town put them in their place.

Tom Brenneke has PDX investors who will be deeply disappointed if this transaction isn't profitable. The entire Brenneke pdx/sea family biz is on the line here.

Personally this is ALL good money being thrown in a rat hole.

A smart person would just sit back and wait in 1-2 years all the BT homes will be down -50%, and the golf course will be nothing like what is seen today.

It's sad that there a few 'lucky' builders,developers, material suppliers, lawyers, CPA's, sitting on a large pile of cash, and willing to throw it all away for ego.

The vast majority of BT owners or club members will never ante MORE money into this game. The actual war is just 1/2 dozen very rich of BT, versus the Brenneke family.

So far the score for wins in the legal forum doesn't look good for Brenneke, but if they get a venue change the game will change drastically.

BT owners/club members could see all the original $3m going towards legal fee's, or more. To date the judge has not mandated who is to pick up the legal tab. This is going to be one giant LOSE-LOSE money PIT, when all the smoke clears.

Should send a good signal to anyone contemplating on buying into a central oregon golf resort. You better have a legal insurance policy with at least a $5M umbrella.

Timothy said...

>>Smart people will get the hell out because the amount of taxes due to pay the debt will never return to the taxpayer, as the 'service' was long ago provided, and today we have massive debt, and MUST pay for the party of the past.

That's true. Mobile people will do the classic arbitrage move: you stay for the party and then shuffle along to leave the suckers with the hangover.

Anonymous said...

A brother of Brenneke has filed a lawsuit to break the recent judges decision

Broken Top tell us who and where this latest Brenneke action was filed.

Anonymous said...

Broken Top tell us who and where this latest Brenneke action was filed.

He won't tell you because he can't. It's just more BS from bendbust.

Anonymous said...


Smart people will get the hell out because the amount of taxes due to pay the debt will never return to the taxpayer, as the 'service' was long ago provided, and today we have massive debt, and MUST pay for the party of the past.


You guys are all still acting like "Bend is special" even as you take great pains to deny it. Bend is the worst of all offenders etc. I call B.S. Bend is not special, the housing market is slumping nationwide. Sales in August were the worst nationwide in 15 years. Bend is being hit hard, but don't expect it to fall harder than other places.

Anonymous said...

I call B.S. Bend is not special, the housing market is slumping nationwide. Sales in August were the worst nationwide in 15 years. Bend is being hit hard, but don't expect it to fall harder than other places.
...
Excuuuuuuuuuuuse Me, but Bend had the highest appreciation in the USA in the recent years, and THUS Bend will have the BIGGEST FALL.

What goes up, will come down.

Thus Bend is 'special', in the retarded sense.

Anonymous said...

What goes up, will come down.

Just like the stock market?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I call B.S. Bend is not special, the housing market is slumping nationwide. Sales in August were the worst nationwide in 15 years. Bend is being hit hard, but don't expect it to fall harder than other places.

Hmmm... I agree that Bend is "not special", although I like it here a lot (despite certain unfortunate demographic trends), but for that exact reason I think it'll be crushed.

We were 1/2 the nationwide median in 1986-ish, which was admittedly probably a little low. The economy was pretty depressed at the time locally. Now Bend medians are more than 50% higher than national medians ($220K). That is way the hell too high considering the awful local wages, and the "non-sustainability agenda" of local politicians. If there was some leadership at the top, there might be hope for some sort of "Ronald Reagan" effect, some sort of unified optimism, justified or not.

I think a Bend median somewhere just below nationwide medians is justified. And I think nationwide medians down about 10-20% (sub $200K) are going to happen over time. So Bend at $180-190K seems perfectly reasonable.

Have you ever walked into a store, saw something interesting, asked "How much?", and it was about 10X what you thought? Bend IS THAT ITEM. Interesting... cool... kinda catchy and neat... but NOWHERE NEAR WORTH THE PRICE. This place IS COOL. But not as cool as true believers think.

Timothy said...

>>>>What goes up, will come down.

>>Just like the stock market?

Exactly. When the stock market is in a bubble (as Nasdaq was in 1999), it comes down.

When housing is in a bubble, it comes down.

Anonymous said...

Exactly. When the stock market is in a bubble (as Nasdaq was in 1999), it comes down.

When housing is in a bubble, it comes down.


Of course when a stock is undervalued it can go up to a much higher price and it may never come down to the previous low.

Timothy said...

The market as a whole tends to long term reversion toward valuation measures. In stocks, it's PE, P/B, P/S, etc. In houses, it's price/rent, price/wages, etc.

pizza guy said...

i like this blog. i am moving there with money from some sucker who bought my over priced dump in portland. i am renting in aubrey glen because the smart ones on this blog have been right all along....and i am taking their renting advice.

i am in the pizza business. very local, good ghetto new york pizza very popular in portland.

i need cheap rent, simple digs, where locals will eat.

where should i set up shop.

nothing fancy, just pizza and beer.

thank you

Anonymous said...

The market as a whole tends to long term reversion toward valuation measures. In stocks, it's PE, P/B, P/S, etc. In houses, it's price/rent, price/wages, etc.

Ten to twenty years ago Oregon was hugely undervalued compared to its west coast neighbors Washington and California. Now Oregon has started to catch up, which is one reason why we've seen high percentage appreciation, but it's still the least expensive option for people who want to live on the west cost.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Of course when a stock is undervalued it can go up to a much higher price and it may never come down to the previous low.

There are very, VERY few that think housing will come down to $50K. Or even inflation-adjusted $50K.

Housing stocks themselves are a pretty good example. They were in the basement valuation-wise in 2000, went to "fair value" (if there can be such a term), and then went quite well beyond... on strong fundamentals. Of course their fundamental nature reasserted itself, and they are again valued well below most "industrials".

Trouble is, housing is a structurally weak industry. Easy entry, easy exit, no recurring revenue stream, literally nothing is required to start (almost), and home builders really aren't considered "proper" companies... they were (are) lose associations of guys (mostly). I mean, what would you pay a one-man general contractor for his $1 mill/year "business"? Not nearly what you'd pay for a $1 mill manufacturer.

This describes an inordinant amount of Bends economy: Project based, one-shot, non-annuity businesses with little salability. Even medical or professional services have no "residual" value you can pass on in a sale. Construction companies are almost totally worthless, as are Realtors. What would you pay for a 10 man RE brokerage. Me? Zero. They all could/would quit the next day. And that sort of zero residual value business totally dominates Bends economy.

There's a lot of people who own "businesses" in Bend that are really glorified jobs. Can't sell a job.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Now Oregon has started to catch up, which is one reason why we've seen high percentage appreciation, but it's still the least expensive option for people who want to live on the west cost.

"Started to cath up"?

"least expensive option"?

Dude, pay a visit. It ain't the 90's. Do you still think it's Hammertime?

Bend is the most overvalued town in the U.S. Has been for years.

Anonymous said...

Bend is the most overvalued town in the U.S. Has been for years.

Really? Take a gander at these overvalued places -- a list of cities with the highest median home prices in 2006. This list only includes cities with at least 65,000 people, so it excludes the most expensive ski towns.

City Median price
Santa Barbara, CA 1,000,000+
Newport Beach, CA 1,000,000+
Santa Monica, CA 1,000,000+
Pleasanton, CA 829,200
San Francisco, CA 806,700
Redwood, CA 801,900
Redondo Beach, CA 794,900
San Mateo, CA 793,200
Huntington Beach, CA 767,400
Berkeley, CA 752,500

All with median prices more than 2x Bend's median price. Oregon in general and Bend in particular haven't caught up with California and Washington prices, not by a longshot.

Anonymous said...

Silicon Valley with jobs galore are keeping those prices, as well as LA. Santa Barbara? Too far to LA and obviously not Silicon Valley.

But all the others have something Bend does not have... high end jobs!

Anonymous said...

Yes California has more high-end jobs than any other state, but the reality is most people living in California don't have high-end jobs.

Oregon is still the least expensive option for people who want to live on the west coast. If you doubt that, spend a few days shopping for houses in Seattle or San Francisco or Santa Cruz or Santa Barbara or Santa Monica and you'll come back with a new appreciation for housing prices in Oregon.

Timothy said...

Oregon has essentially caught up with Washington. Oregonians pay 39% of their income on housing. Washington pays 40%. With California, it's an astonishing 52%.

But the whole west coast is going to fall hard, largely due to the kind of loans Californians took out to buy their homes over the last few years.

Anonymous said...

If you doubt that, spend a few days shopping for houses in Seattle or San Francisco or Santa Cruz
*
Seaside or Astoria ain't SF, if you think it is, then you ain't ever been outside of Astoria.

Anonymous said...

Seaside or Astoria ain't SF, if you think it is, then you ain't ever been outside of Astoria.

You're absolutely right. Living in Seaside is much more pleasant than living in San Francisco.

Anonymous said...

Bend is the most overvalued town in the U.S. Has been for years
*
Boy the RE whores are busy tonight.

Bend RE had 70% appreciation in 2006, and 40% in 2005 the highest in the country, this means that now Bend will enjoy -50% for a few years.

Anonymous said...

Let's play the dumb bitch RE game.

Burns you can buy a nice home for $30k, same for John Day, ergo at $1M for a Santa Barbara home, folks should be going to Burns.


Whats the difference between Burns and Santa Barbara?

Anonymous said...

Whats the difference between Burns and Santa Barbara?

Bendbust, if you haven't yet figured out why people are coming from Santa Barbara to Bend instead of to Burns, well I feel sorry for you.

Anonymous said...

There are places in NY city that go for $1M per sq-yd, therefore Burns will soon be going for $10/sq-yd, yeh right, ...

There are no jobs, Bend is a town of cheap whores, that screw each other out of SDC fees.

Real nice place.

Anonymous said...

nothing fancy, just pizza and beer.

thank you

*

How do you spell NWXC?

p.s. Boss Hogg has daughter who needs a job.

Anonymous said...

There are no jobs, Bend is a town of cheap whores, that screw each other out of SDC fees.

Bendbust, do you have a job or are you a cheap whore? If you're such a brilliant investor why aren't you rich? And what did you chug before writing this drivel, Hound's Tooth or Snake Bite?

Anonymous said...

Bendbb got raped tonight at the redmond airport timmy-toe thumping in the urinals.

Tomorrow should be interesting.

Anonymous said...

Bend is a town of cheap whores, that screw each other out of SDC fees.

.....


What is NOT true about the above statement?

Even yesterday's BULL had a story about a developer here in town refusing to pay a $5M sdc fee, because they're exempt.... This town has hasn't making anybody pay actual costs.

Condo-Ho's, RE-Ho's, Mtg-Ho's, Dev/Build-Ho's, ... This is bend, and they're all exempt from any kind of taxes.

Here in Bend you can only make a profit, there is NO notion of an expense.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Oregon has essentially caught up with Washington. Oregonians pay 39% of their income on housing. Washington pays 40%. With California, it's an astonishing 52%.

But the whole west coast is going to fall hard, largely due to the kind of loans Californians took out to buy their homes over the last few years.


Right. And if Oregon as a whole is paying 39%, Bend is well ahead of that.

How or why Cali's pay 52% is a puzzle. Why? My own theory is that once you make enough to pay for essentials, your house is the one thing that you can sink almost unending money into. I mean you can only use so many bars of soap, or drink so much milk... and if you make $500K/yr and live in a liberal bastion like Cali, you probably got no kids, so that leaves a nice big whacky shack to sink your cash into.

Thing is, Bend is NOT there. We've been helped by Amenity Locusts, easy money, and a prior condition of undervaluation, but ultimately income will win the day. And we suck in that area.

I hope no one is trying to compare the income demographics of Santa Barbara to Bend. We will NEVER be like those places you listed in CA. Ireally don't think the RE bubble in CA is sustainable. And I mean the last 25-30 years.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Don Bau-humper & a partner basically threw in the towel on the Bend Trap Club site:

After costly 18-month cleanup, developer looks to sell site

The old Bend Trap Club site in southeast Bend is quiet today.

The shooting stopped last year when the trap club sold its 40 acres to make way for a new subdivision.

Then the developer who bought the land, Abito, moved in with clanking heavy equipment to glean 220,000 pounds of lead shot and millions of clay pigeon fragments out of more than 30,000 tons of earth.

The city of Bend gave Abito the go-ahead several months ago to build 203 houses on the site, along with a 2.5-acre city park and new streets, sewer lines and water connections, once the environmental cleanup was done.

But now, with the cleanup finished after 18 months of work and “millions of dollars” spent — Steve Robertson, Abito president and co-owner, won’t say exactly how much — the site may stay quiet for some time.

Compass Commercial Real Estate tacked a “For Sale” sign on the site a few days ago.

The asking price is $14.9 million for anyone who wants to buy the land outright, along with its city-approved development plans, Compass Commercial broker Darren Powderly said. Or it could go for $12.5 million to anyone who wants to simply invest cash and let Abito finish the project for a share of the profits.

With the residential real estate market as slow as it is right now, “like most everybody in the real estate world these days, we are exploring all options,” Robertson said.

“I think somebody else who doesn’t have to dig themselves out of that cash burden (the cleanup bill) would still be able to be successful in the marketplace with it,” Robertson said. “But we’ll just see what the marketplace brings us.”

Whatever the marketplace brings for the old trap club site, it will bring it to land that is much cleaner than it was last year.


Anyone? $14.9 mill? Another "retail" developer gone wholesale. Except this guy spent MILLIONS & MILLIONS first to make the place even buildable.

“like most everybody in the real estate world these days, we are exploring all options..."

Huh. An admission that "developer" as a business model is no longer viable. "Exploring all options" is a phrase you use when you're damn near broke. Bau-humper is in league with this guy, which makes me wonder about how Tetherow is going...

This is like that 24 lot townhome development I saw in craigslist, where the "retail" sales amount essentially amounted to a guaranteed loss to anyone who bought it AND actually could sell the lots for what the seller purported they were worth. Which is basically impossible, since they are selling wholesale BECAUSE they could not get the retail price. THAT is exactly what Bau-humper is doing here: Pre-extraction of every possible nickel of profit PLUS 20-30%. There's NO WAY to buy this tract & make money. ATTENTION DEVELOPERS: THAT is what HIGH PRICES has done for your business model! UNTENABLE! WILL NEVER WORK! IT'S OVER!

Yeah, but it's you DUMBSHITS who had such a big hard-on for these skyrocketing prices. Good luck, dumbasses. I hope you fuckers go broke & are driven out of town, like you've done to so many others.

Anonymous said...

A brother of Brenneke has filed a lawsuit to break the recent judges decision.

Broken Top tell us who and where this latest Brenneke action was filed?


The brother of pdx's tom brenneke has a name. Its Paul Brenneke of Seattle. The BT club is owned by his daughters on paper, but Paul paid for it, and put it in their names as a living trust.
His Brother Tom in PDX does bad cop deal, while paul plays good cop.
The new complaint was filed in Seattle, by Paul Brenneke. The real owner of BT club.

The new complaint will get the venue of the BT war moved to Seattle, and thus change the odd's of favor away from BT residents.

The war goes on, lose-lose, good money going down the drain.

The Bend Golf Wars are just the start of the legal redistribution of assets that the bubble burst will create.

The deflation of the bubble will send large amounts of Bend cash to Seattle lawyers.

It's fascinating to see people lose +50% on their BT homes, but then also burn their cash on an ego war that was lose-lose from the beginning.

The Bend bubble was driven by marketing PR insanity, and the bust driven by ego and anger.

Had the bubble continued a few more years the Brenneke's may well have played their hand, as the hotel at BT would have been a welcome value added for all. The bubble implosion has changed everything.

What is interesting about BT is that this is just the beginning, there are dozens of deals in the area ( 24 golf courses just like BT ), that are going to implode just like BT.

All this because golf courses were created to sell real-estate, and nobody ever intended to maintain them. Nobody ever intended to stick around.

The whole golf war is very similar to the SDC war, nobody ever intended to pay for anything.

You really have to feel for the Brennekes they came in from out of town to do a deal. Once again outsiders get taken by the Bend game. What do you expect when a town is all composed of hustlers?

At least up in Redmond the town is all family. Bend is all Public Relations, and Marketing.

Some of the richest people in PDX have been playing Bend like a puppet for years, and they sold their puppet to newbies at the right time.

Anonymous said...

I hope no one is trying to compare the income demographics of Santa Barbara to Bend. We will NEVER be like those places you listed in CA.

*

First of all SB is a 1-1/2 hour drive from LA, and there is a lot of money in LA.

Secondly, its always been that you had to drive to SB to get out of the smog.

SB is is like Laguna Beach, its been high price since the 1950's. I don't think you'll ever see SB go that low.

On the other hand you have Bend, with a town of a few wealthy people 3 hours away. Trouble is MOST of these people own property in Sunriver or Black-Butte.

Bend is out in the middle of the desert, and has NO economy, and NO jobs.

SB will be just fine, Bend will drop like a rock to prices not seen since the 1980's.

Owning a $1M+ home in SB requires that people put +50% of their income into RE, that said, it is essential for quality of life. To keep your kids in SB, if you have to work in LA, and can afford it. For a lot of people this is an essential life style.

Bend is NO fucking Santa Barbara. There are too many RE HO's here been making that comparison for too long.

Anonymous said...

You really have to feel for the Brennekes they came in from out of town to do a deal. Once again outsiders get taken by the Bend game. What do you expect when a town is all composed of hustlers?

Bendbust feeling sorry for the Brennekes? What's the world coming to.

Anonymous said...

History of wages & prices in Santa Barbara: "Although the median family income on the South Coast has more than doubled from about $34,500 in 1982 to nearly $77,500 in 2004, the median home price jumped from $142,000 to $1 million, more than a seven-fold gain."

Anonymous said...

For those who felt the 2x median prices in California were a little too rich for their blood, here are some medians from more accessible metropolitan areas.

Metropolitan Area - Median home price
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA - $396,800
Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA - $356,500

For a little less than $400K you can buy the median home in Riverside, just don't pay any attention to the crushing traffic jams or the choking smog. Or a little more than $350K will get you into Sacramento where you can work for the state and wish you lived somewhere else. Any takers?

And here are U.S. and regional medians.

Region - Median home price
U.S. - $223,800
Northeast - $298,000
Midwest - $163,500
South - $185,000
West - $349,400

Notice anything interesting about the median for the West? It's the same as the Bend median.

Anonymous said...

Oregon is still the least expensive option for people who want to live on the west coast. If you doubt that, spend a few days shopping for houses in Seattle or San Francisco or Santa Cruz or Santa Barbara or Santa Monica and you'll come back with a new appreciation for housing prices in Oregon.

It certainly is. Try making 100K at your "high end" Bay Area job and being faced with houses costing $1 million and up. The Bay area is full of 1 bedroom apartments where couples are pulling in $200k per year but would not think of buying a house.

Anonymous said...

I hope no one is trying to compare the income demographics of Santa Barbara to Bend. We will NEVER be like those places you listed in CA.

I wish you'd drop this party line, it's not entirely accurate. Bend IS seeing a massive influx of rich people from various states. Folks on this blog love to complain about it, and simultaneously deny that this is anything whatsoever like the factors that help inflate house prices in other communities where the income\housing prices are out of whack.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The Bay area is full of 1 bedroom apartments where couples are pulling in $200k per year but would not think of buying a house.

2 things:
1) I would NEVER moved to SanFran for exactly that reason.
2) Just because there exists somewhere that is more expensive than Bend, doesn't mean Bend is cheap.

Region - Median home price
U.S. - $223,800
Northeast - $298,000
Midwest - $163,500
South - $185,000
West - $349,400

Notice anything interesting about the median for the West? It's the same as the Bend median.


Again, this globbing Bend in with SanFran, Laguna Beach & other incredibly high-end places is largely irrelevant. Why not lump it in with Burns... or Burns Junction? They're way closer. Hell, no one compares it to Madras and Madras is damn close.

I'm not sure what the writers point is, but David Lereah at least had a point with his latest book title: "All Real Estate Is Local". To some extent, this is true. Moving costs (not $, so much) are quite high for most people, and most will stay put unless extraordinary pressure pushes them to move.

Repeatedly pointing out that there exists other places in the US that cost more, is just as relevant as pointing to Madras, John Day, or JUST ABOUT EVERY SINGLE TOWN IN OREGON, IDAHO, MONTANA, KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, NEBRASKA, etc as costing less than Bend. For every town you can point out that costs more, I can point out hundreds that cost less. Who cares?

Anonymous said...

IHTBYB wrote: I'm not sure what the writers point is ....

The western U.S. is a desirable place to live (presumably you found it desirable too because you chose to move here). If someone from the midwest or the east decides to move out west they have a wide variety of choices, from San Diego to Sand Point. A few will choose expensive enclaves like Santa Barbara and San Franciso, but most people will choose more affordable places and the median defines what most people in the west are willing to pay, it's effectively the middle of the housing price bell curve. Bend's median is equal to the median for the entire west, so the point is that most people would consider Bend's housing prices in line with the rest of the region.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I wish you'd drop this party line, it's not entirely accurate. Bend IS seeing a massive influx of rich people from various states. Folks on this blog love to complain about it, and simultaneously deny that this is anything whatsoever like the factors that help inflate house prices in other communities where the income\housing prices are out of whack.

All I can tell you is my own preference, but if I hit the lottery, first thing I'd do is get the hell out of Bend. And I would NOT go to named bastions of high-home prices in CA.

You seem to say that the Conveyor Belt Income Theory holds water. OK. I've pointed out too many times to count WHY I think it's invalid. Current home sales numbers do not seem to bear out this idea. Recent housing sales indicate this theory, while possibly valid in the past, IS NOT ANYMORE. And many of these sales were not about housing inbound immigration, but pure speculation. No one has EVER lived in these Flipper Bait pieces of shit.

People aren't coming here. I think that "Ouside" mag cover marks the top. Bend isn't cutting edge, we'll be passe in awhile (if we aren't already), and soon even rich old codgers will be fully aware of the UNCOOLNESS of Bend. And the UNCOOLNESS will primarily be an offshoot of LOSSES. Man, people remember & HATE LOSSES.

Peoria, IL. Cool or UNCOOL? Yeah, UNCOOL, cuz of losses that'll never be forgotten. Flint, MI? Same. Bend will soon join these has-beens.

All these unwanted behemoths will not be forgotten. The Plaza? Man, that'll haunt RE collective memories for decades. "Remember how Breeze & Co blew 20 years of savings on just 1 project?" People will never forget the massive dumbshit ideas that are today being passed off as brilliant. "Redmond Water Park"... Holy Crap! I would be hard-pressed to imagine a worse idea. Banks won't let them forget. When this place implodes, your opinion & mine won't count for much, loans will. And getting a spec loan around here will be impossible for a decade.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

it's effectively the middle of the housing price bell curve. Bend's median is equal to the median for the entire west, so the point is that most people would consider Bend's housing prices in line with the rest of the region.

Actually, I'll bet you could lump 2 mid-sized states from ANYWHERE in the US, with CA, and have an inordinately high median as a result. CA lumped w/ OR & WA is basically an indicator of CA's lower quartile, primarily. Hell, price every home in OR & WA at $5, and I'll bet "The West" would still have a $350K median.

Again, CA is a housing outlier. Huge numbers & high prices. Lumping CA with ANYWHERE essentially tells you about CA. Pull CA out of "The West" median computations, and voila, Bend would probably be in the top 90th percentile.

Ummmm... I did not "make up" the "overvalued" assertions regarding Bend home prices. It was bank research that's been ongoing for years.

Huh. Uh, this "Bend is not nearly as expensive as 5 hand-picked places I've heard about or lived" argument seems to resurface periodically, with the writer seemingly convinced that they've discovered The Wheel or some such. I'm starting to get the BendBust urge to say, "I'VE SAID IT BEFORE AND I'LL SAY IT AGAIN" preamble.... but I actually HAVE.

Again, I CAN EASILY HANDPICK tens and HUNDREDS of places from all over the WORLD that have higher home prices than Bend. Maybe THOUSANDS. Does this have one damn thing to do with Bend? Maybe only in the cursory sense, in that Bend has to compete in this giant pool of places. Will Bend go DOWN (or UP) because SanFran is TOO HIGH? Maybe, but again it seems to be a tiny, almost insignificant fact. San Jose? Same. Santa Barbara? Same. Wichita? Same. OK, and on and on and on. Ultimately, maybe the entirety of the US cities collectively have a large influence over Bend home prices, as Bend has to compete on some level with these homes, but this is true for every single town in the US.

I actually think INCOME will out in Bends home price determination over the long haul. Conveyor Belt Incomes ARE in there... but as Bend (or any town) grows, that becomes mathematically less influential. Even at constant rates of growth, Bend will be less & less affected by this phenomenon, if in fact, it persists... which recent sales data suggests, it won't.

You've got your right to whatever your opinion is. That's great. But I'm telling you, it seems pretty tired & well invalidated. You're about the 100th person to state it, and the first 10 people seemed to raise what was a valid issue. The last 10, far less so. The numbers have well & truly killed this idea, especially recently. But stick with it if it makes you feel better. Maybe I should abdicate my duties shooting down this theory to BendBust, as I have grown tired of repeating myself endlessly about this one particular point.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And this commenter also seems to imply a mindset for almost everyone on the West Coast:

"Well, we're living like animals here in (The Bay|LA|San Jose|Sacramento|Sand Diego|et al). Dog house sized home, but we're making a pile. We have to make a decision: It's either stay here, OR GO TO BEND OREGON! THOSE ARE OUR ONLY 2 CHOICES!"

OK, I don't think so. I'll bet a good 80% of San Fran is barely aware of Bend. In the US as a whole, it's probably just a few percent.

Bend is one choice from THOUSANDS. The entire West Coast DOES NOT have this "BEND OREGON OR BUST" mentality.

Anonymous said...

Once again bendbust talking out of his ass about Brenneke's and BTC. Bendbust Ya might want to take some time and read the court ordered sale of BTC. The one signed by the Brenneke's attorney Susan Eggum.

http://www.boxstar.net/BTNews/Stipulated%20Order%20Final%202.pdf

BTC is owned by BTP LLC, registered in Oregon. Not Seattle WA.

Anonymous said...

Hell, price every home in OR & WA at $5, and I'll bet "The West" would still have a $350K median.

That's funny, but it's not true. Price every home in Oregon and Washington at $5 and the west's median would be substantially lower than $350K. Unless you subscribe to bendbust's method of calculating medians.

I'm starting to get the BendBust urge to say, "I'VE SAID IT BEFORE AND I'LL SAY IT AGAIN" preamble.... but I actually HAVE.

If you and bendbust pool your money you just might be able to afford a starter home in California. Think how much fun you'd have with Buster as a roommate.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And man, looking at medians for THE WEST, is just as meaningless as looking at Oregon medians, or even Central Oregon medians, or even BEND MEDIANS. Hell, here are some AVG's for some Bend neighborhoods:

Pronghorn: $3.16MM
Awbrey - North Rim: $2.57MM
Pinelyn Park: $2.44MM

What does this tell you about how much a Traditions East home should be? Maybe just a little but not much. Hell, even medians within a neighborhood can be skewed by unusual square footage. There've been many debates on just WHAT is a good measure for even figuring out if home prices are going higher or lower in this town.

Bend-wide medians seem to be a fairly agreed upon standard, but it sure as hell ain't perfect. Sisters medians spiked up thru June, but it was primarily due to larger sq footage properties getting listed. Redmond medians have gone down recently, BUT median ppsf has actually gone up a little.

Duncan McGeary said...

Hell, Paul-doh, either the guy's being purposely obtuse, or he's as dumb as a bag of hammers.

Does anyone have a link to the CNN-Money Magazine article declaring Bend the "most over-priced" town in America. Or any of the numerous articles over the last couple of years where Bend is always listed in the top ten?

Anonymous said...

Recent housing sales indicate this theory, while possibly valid in the past, IS NOT ANYMORE. And many of these sales were not about housing inbound immigration, but pure speculation

I think you're applying a national temporary phenomenon (the housing crash) to imply a permanent shift in Americans behavior. Yes prices went too high nationwide and we are in a bust. But that does not mean people won't continue to move from high priced areas to Bend once those prices stabilize. Everybody I know who does not own a house but can afford one is waiting, regardless of geographic location. I do think Bend is a special place, it is somewhat of a destination. My guess is, prices will stabilize much lower than they are now, but well above the national median. I think is due to their being plenty of room to expand in the area otherwise we'd see more of the appreciation stick.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

That's funny, but it's not true. Price every home in Oregon and Washington at $5 and the west's median would be substantially lower than $350K. Unless you subscribe to bendbust's method of calculating medians.

Oh, OK. I see that you might subscribe to the idea of "I said it, so it's true." Uh, and I don't SUBSCRIBE to how medians are computed. They just ARE. Like I don't subscribe to the idea that the World is round. It just is.

From the census bureau:

Cali population:
36,457,549

OR population:
3,700,758

WA population:
6,395,798

Yup, census data, 2006. So you can see that WA + OR together make up about 21% of The TOTAL population of THE WEST, or that CA is 3.6X larger than OR and WA put together.

Are you trying to say that CA & it's 36.5 million people & $500K+ medians aren't going to TOTALLY DOMINATE a median computation? If not, then it's you who does not compute.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


Does anyone have a link to the CNN-Money Magazine article declaring Bend the "most over-priced" town in America.


Overheated housing markets cool down

City State Median home price Percent overvalued
Bend OR $324,400 78.7%
Prescott OR $246,600 64.6%
Naples FL $383,300 63.4%
Merced CA $280,900 63.2%
Madera CA $314,100 62.9%
Miami FL $309,200 59.2%
Atlantic City NJ $272,100 57.8%
San Bernardino CA $346,400 56.7%
Salinas CA $596,900 56.3%
Flagstaff AZ $274,900 55.6%

Anonymous said...

Yup, census data, 2006. So you can see that WA + OR together make up about 21% of The TOTAL population of THE WEST, or that CA is 3.6X larger than OR and WA put together.

Uh, I hate to burst your provincial bubble but the west is bigger than just Washington, Oregon and California. Have you ever heard of western states like Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, etc., etc., etc.?

Again the point is that when people from out of the region think about moving to the west they consider many places including California and Oregon, and Bend's median prices are in line with western U.S. medians.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I think you're applying a national temporary phenomenon (the housing crash) to imply a permanent shift in Americans behavior.

No, I mean Bend sales specifically. If you haven't noticed, they've imploded.

Everybody I know who does not own a house but can afford one is waiting, regardless of geographic location.

Ummm. I know you don't know me, but I'm not "waiting". Or maybe I should say, I am waiting, but I sure as hell ain't holding my breath. There's "waiting", and there's getting on with life, in the hopes that someday you can buy. But it's WAY OFF, and there's a hell of a good chance I won't live here, much less know where the hell I will live when it happens. There's "waiting", and then there's "WAITING". Hell, the whole of the human race could be lumped into the latter.

My guess is, prices will stabilize much lower than they are now, but well above the national median.

Well then maybe you & I just differ on magnitude. My own thinking is that Bend ultimately boils down to a "working town", with some nice, but NOT unique, outdoor amenities. So incomes will in large measure determine prices here, something that is not Universal but there must be unique circumstances for it to be sustainable, circumstances that really do not exist here (but do in Aspen, Jackson WY, etc). There may be some sort of "Amenity Premium" in Bend, but it is quite small & again, Non-unique.

The business prospects of Bend will largely determine the housing prospects, and the former are not very good, and they are quickly deteriorating. Do you read about the onslaught of businesses coming here, or LEAVING? Yeah... they are leaving, and NOTHING is replacing them. Industrial is getting GUTTED, only to be replaced by t-shirt shops. You think t-shirt shop counter workers will push up medians here? Technology... it MIGHT be described as steady state... few leaving or arrivals, but THIS should have been the area that we should have redeployed Bubble cash in back in 2004 -- 2005 -- even 2006. Too late now. Caesar fiddled while Rome burned, and Juniper Ridge is a fiasco. Nobody is coming to Bend. I hear all this talk about RICH PEOPLE coming, but not a word about RICH COMPANIES... or even MODERATELY OK COMPANIES. THESE PEOPLE PRODUCE WEALTH. RICH OLD GEEZERS CONSUME IT. They produce NOTHING.

Rich old geezers can produce a "run" on housing, like they could produce a run on laxatives. Might push up prices temporarily, but it won't last. Business can actually push up & SUSTAIN higher home prices... it's really the natural way of things... and they are NOT COMING TO BEND ANYMORE.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Uh, I hate to burst your provincial bubble...

Go ahead. But I think you owe me dinner & a movie first.

Anonymous said...

Does anyone have a link to the CNN-Money Magazine article declaring Bend the "most over-priced" town in America.

Overheated housing markets cool down


And because it was printed in the MSM that makes it true? I thought you were skeptical of MSM analysis.

Anonymous said...

Are you trying to say that CA & it's 36.5 million people & $500K+ medians aren't going to TOTALLY DOMINATE a median computation? If not, then it's you who does not compute.

Just in case you haven't noticed there are quite a few houses valued over $349,400 in Oregon and Washington. If all those higher-than-median-value houses were magically transformed to $5 value it would lower the west's median. Understand now?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Have you ever heard of western states like Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, etc., etc., etc.?

Colorado? You just made that word up. "Colorado"... that's the craziest I've ever heard.

when people from out of the region think about moving to the west they consider many places including California and Oregon, and Bend's median prices are in line with western U.S. medians.

OK. Burns medians are WAY BELOW western medians. WAY. JOHN DAY too. MILLICAN, PRINEVILLE, MADRAS, ANTELOPE, DAYVILLE, SENECA, GRASS VALLEY, VALE, KLAMATH FALLS, LAPINE, BAKER CITY, LAGRANDE, PENDLETON, HINES, HAINES, UKIAH, WALLOWA, HOOD RIVER, REDMOND and just about every other town East of the Cascades, and 95% of those West.

So they are considering THOSE too, right? And actually, if they narrow things down to Oregon and HOME MEDIANS are a big deal to them, Bend is actually one of the WORST places. Right?

Dude, I live here, so I obviously think it's a nice place. But I got here when medians were in the $100's. And that was just 6 years ago. Do you think this town has been so completely transformed that medians almost triple that are sustainable? I WISH it had. It hasn't. It was the beneficiary of a confluence of circumstances that I actually consider akin to winning the lottery. One in thousands. Problem is, just like the lottery, this "WINNER" had no real inherent reason for winning, and when we got our winnings, we did what so many real-life lottery winners do, we pissed it down a rathole. And we'll suffer the same fate: We'll end up dead, flat broke. We'll proably actually WISHED THIS HAD NEVER HAPPENED at some point.

Sudden Unearned Affluence -- the root cause of almost as much misery as abject poverty.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And because it was printed in the MSM that makes it true? I thought you were skeptical of MSM analysis.

Someone asked for a link, I printed it.

Just in case you haven't noticed there are quite a few houses valued over $349,400 in Oregon and Washington. If all those higher-than-median-value houses were magically transformed to $5 value it would lower the west's median. Understand now?

Actually thanks, yes I do. I understand that you have no idea what you're talking about, and I'm wasting my time explaining.

"It is difficult to convince a man of something if his paycheck depends on his not understanding it."

Upton Sinclair

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Hell, Paul-doh, either the guy's being purposely obtuse, or he's as dumb as a bag of hammers.

I can't be far behind though. I actually thought this guy was interested in reality.

Wrong.

Anonymous said...

Actually thanks, yes I do. I understand that you have no idea what you're talking about, and I'm wasting my time explaining.

So anybody who doesn't agree with your way of thinking has no idea they're talking about? You're sounding more like bendbust today.

Anonymous said...

Actually thanks, yes I do. I understand that you have no idea what you're talking about, and I'm wasting my time explaining.
*
WOW, my feelings exactly, I remember six months ago explaining 'jumbo' here it took two weeks.
The problem here is that 90% of the folks on this blog are renters, and thus don't have a fucking idea what the fuck the 'debate' is even about.
That said, after about six times they usually 'get it'.

Anonymous said...

My guess is, prices will stabilize much lower than they are now, but well above the national median.

*

When people talk this shit, I ask one question. HOW LONG YOU FUCKING BEEN HERE.

Having been here 40+ years I have seen it, I know what is underneath all the bullshit. I know that Bend is a facade of PR, Marketing, & Hype.

Medians DONT MEAN SHIT.

What matter's is YOUR HOUSE.

Take my hood in 1998 homes were selling new ( after a clearing a lot of the old mill shack ), these homes sold NEW for $120k.

The homes were selling at the 2005 high for over $480k, today they're listed at $320k, and not selling, the ones that have sold for $290k in recent months.

Thus things in MY hood which is real solid info to me, FUCK MEDIANS, reality is things are DOWN -50% right now, and I expect them to go down to $180k, which just happens to be close to the national median today, of course by then the national median could be $80k.

In 1984 you could buy anything my hood for $75k, and most of my neighbors including me paid $15k for their homes.

Bend is the MOST overpriced and MOST overvalued shithole in the USA.

I expect stabilization to be 4X, where X is household income ( wiki ) which is now $40k/yr, thus when homes get down to $160k, then they'll be once again affordable for kids.

We must standardize here. My standard is the 1200sq-ft home. This is essential for the fact we have passed peak oil, and most people will not be able to afford to heat the mcMansion shit.

Anonymous said...

We must standardize here. My standard is the 1200sq-ft home.

Bendbust, nobody cares about your 1200 sq ft home. Do you think the typical home buyer wants to live in a 1200 sq ft home? If you answered yes you're delusional.

Anonymous said...

I think you're applying a national temporary phenomenon (the housing crash) to imply a permanent shift in Americans behavior

*

Since 1998 americans have had a negative savings rate.

There is NOTHING temporary about the new phenomenon, the party is over, and NOW americans have to pay the fucking bill.

We're entering another fifteen year depression, and we're going to create WWIII to dig ourselves out of it.

Anonymous said...

I hear all this talk about RICH PEOPLE coming, but not a word about RICH COMPANIES... or even MODERATELY OK COMPANIES

I don't think most people moving here from out of state are moving here for jobs. I agree that this is a negative, but I don't think it's the determining factor. Maybe it is for you, since you don't own.

So... a few companies have left Bend. There was never much here anyway.

Anonymous said...

Having been here 40+ years I have seen it, I know what is underneath all the bullshit. I know that Bend is a facade of PR, Marketing, & Hype.

Your rants are pretty unconvincing. These price fluctuations can be observed in lots of markets, especially over such a large period of time. The housing bubble has thrown up lots of developments nationwide on "PR, Marketing, & Hype". Florida and Central Valley of CA are full of them. Who wants to live in the CA Central Valley? You think there is nothing in Bend? Dude, you haven't seen nothing yet. Bend is not unique in this in any way.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

So anybody who doesn't agree with your way of thinking has no idea they're talking about? You're sounding more like bendbust today.

Well, "agreeing" has nothing to do with whether you understand median computation or not.

Do you understand this:

Cali is about 11X as big as Oregon, population-wise. OK, adding OR stats to Cali, is like adding less than 500 homes to Bends listing base of about 5,072 homes. Adding 500 homes at $0/ea to the Cent OR listing base would move Cent OR listing medians down to about $355,000.

OK, I'll admit going from $400K to $355K is a decent amount. But that's ADDING 500 FREE HOMES TO THE MIX. OK, the listing base is LARGE ENOUGH that moving the median appreciably is HARD TO DO with a sample size that is 1/11th the size of the population, even with extreme outliers.

That's what happens when you add Cali and a state that is 1/11th it's size. Even if the state has HUGE outliers, the effect is NOT THAT BIG. Cali overwhelms the statistics. You add all OR, or all ID, or all NV homes to Cali stats... you get CALI.

"THE WEST" ~= "CALI"

Do YOU understand THAT?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I don't think most people moving here from out of state are moving here for jobs. I agree that this is a negative, but I don't think it's the determining factor. Maybe it is for you, since you don't own.

As I said on BendBB:

"If you don't give a shit about anyone except yourself, unaffordable home prices are great!"

I owned here when I first arrived. I WON'T own again at anything near these prices. But you go ahead.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I agree that this is a negative, but I don't think it's the determining factor. Maybe it is for you, since you don't own.

Again, you confuse opinion with fact. "Maybe it is for you..."? What's that? My "belief" that jobs are important DETERMINES whether home prices will go up? Uh, no.

You can agree or disagree, and that's fine. But you argue like my sister. Maybe jobs are a determining factor... FOR ME? Uh. This makes NO SENSE.

Now I see. You have no argumentative skills, and even less critical thinking skills. COCC, dude. Go there. You are a dude right? Cuz you got this "Chick" thing going with the way you write.

And if most people "aren't moving here for jobs", what is it? Are you taking a poll at Gilchrist?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

My standard is the 1200sq-ft home.

Damn, I forget where I read this, but I read an article that said that one of the side-effects of high home prices & the subsequent foreclosure wave, is smaller homes. Basically said that Keeping Up With The Jones had gone beyond all rational measure, and that people could no longer afford McMansions in the numbers we've built them.

That's just weird. Ever-larger homes are as American as Apple Pie.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I don't think most people moving here from out of state are moving here for jobs. I agree that this is a negative, but I don't think it's the determining factor. Maybe it is for you, since you don't own.

Can ANYONE explain what this means? Seriously. It makes so little sense to me, that now I have to assume that I am missing something. Seems to be saying that JOBS are an important component to home prices, but not THE most important, but they might be the most important TO ME, BECAUSE I RENT. Ummmm... I do not understand those words.

Anonymous said...

Everybody I know who does not own a house but can afford one is waiting, regardless of geographic location.


*

In the past few years everyone that could buy a house bought one, and in Bend folks bought 2 or 3.

Thus today we have glut, and no buyers, add to that the fact that you cannot any longer get a zero-down loan.

Today we have real estate paralysis. The sellers will not drop the prices, because they cannot, as they have NO equity to do so, and the buyers cannot secure a loan because they have no down payment.

People are bleeding by the 1,000's, prices are slowing falling, as the few people that have equity can afford to drop the price.

Anonymous said...

I wish you'd drop this party line, it's not entirely accurate. Bend IS seeing a massive influx of rich people from various states.

*

This is a BIG FUCK YOU.

There are NO rich people Bend, only Amenity Vultures as IHTBYB calls them.

Look at todays BULL, developers REFUSE to pay SDC's. Sounds like they're going to avoid the hike.

Someday someone in this town is going to have to pay +3Billion for sewer, water, and storm that never got built, because tight ass Amenity Vultures refused to pay for infrastructure, and that includes schools.

Rich people don't do this, ONLY fucking non-placement bound parasitic Amenity Vultures refuse to pay for sewage.

Bend is FULL of SHIT, and NOT rich.

Anonymous said...

Ever-larger homes are as American as Apple Pie.
*
Not, in ALL RE depressions its the BIG high maintenance homes that fall the most.

Ever-larger homes, are like ever larger cars, a symptom of cheap gas.

Ever-larger homes are a symptom of easy financing and cheap utility's.

The game is over, post peak oil is here, and is money is over.

BIG homes mean BIG JUMBO, and JUMBO is fucked in Bend.

Anonymous said...

Florida and Central Valley of CA are full of them. Who wants to live in the CA Central Valley? You think there is nothing in Bend? Dude, you haven't seen nothing yet. Bend is not unique in this in any way.
*
Florida yes, built on Spec, hype, greed, promotion, PR, and marketing, but NOT CEN-CAL.

CENT-CAL was mexicans trying to get the american dream.

This debate of saying look-there, look over here, is BULLSHIT.

We're in BEND, and BEND is all that matters, and BEND had the highest appreciation in the country during the prior two years, and thus will now have the BIGGEST collapse in the country in the ensuing five years.

People can no longer sell their RE, so it really doesn't matter, what they think of Bend. Sure you can walk away from your CENT-CA home and drive to Bend, and live in your car, and compete for a food-service job, and rent, ...

There are NO fucking rich moving to Bend, because ALL rich was HELOC rich, and HELOC is over.

Anonymous said...

"THE WEST" ~= "CALI"

Do YOU understand THAT?

*

This is true, almost ALL migrants from back east come to so-cali first, then discover the bay, or seattle, or ashland, or pdx, ...

Let's also remember that so-cali has all year round weather, folks from back east think they have died and gone to heaven.

Bend the summer starts in June, and ends in September. Bend is a shitty little desert town in the middle of no-where, shit you can go to Barstow cali, and find a bend like RE.

Bend is fucked, but MOST fucked is the RE ho's, mtg brokers, construction, all the RE bitches, they're fucked because they have no fucking cash-flow.

The only people in Bend that will sit out this depression will be folks working for the government, sitting in the homes they bought for $50k 20 years ago.

Then there are the outer mongolian fuckheads that bought the +500K homes in shevlin, nwxc, east of 27th, ... those shit-holes will be worth NOTHING in a few years.

Anonymous said...

I don't think most people moving here from out of state are moving here for jobs.
*
First of all when coming to this blog read the old shit.
The problem your having and we have addressed this is MOST of the dumb bitches that have bought the city of Bend PR program have NOT done their fucking homework.
The veneer of beauty of Bend is thin, just today I was explaining to a RE HO about the Bend Meth problem, her rhetoric was their was NO meth in central-oregon. Pleeeeeeze, I tried to explain that such opulence that meth was quite normal as the have-nots were supplementing their income so as to eat at the DEEP.

A recurring theme on this blog is to educate the newbies about what bend is really about, a town OWNED by out of state REITS, a town where nobody pays for anything, a town of hustlers, a town where there are 2,000+ REAL ESTATE WHORES, of which 1900 haven't made a nickel in six months.

A town that takes in newbies, and takes leaves them without a 401k in just a few years, yes come to Bend, but don't come to this blog site and ask for pity.

Everything is bend is a mirage, its false-front western gold town, and the gold is long gone, their are a few pockets seeded so that new suckers are fleeced daily.

Bend is exceptional, Bend is special, but only in the sense that it has perfected the art of the con.

Anonymous said...

That's just weird. Ever-larger homes are as American as Apple Pie. - ihtbyb

*

Why say that? You know that the baby-boom is its time to downsize, the kids can no longer afford to buy, what was supposed to happen?

Travel see the world folks don't buy large homes, especially working poor, the average american is a fucking loser living the rich mans life in debt, these are ALL sucker plays.

In my hood here in Bend ( all that matters ) folks that did sell their 1200sq-ft home, and bought up at shevlin and moved into a 5,000 sqft for $500k that was supposed to go to a $1m in 2 years, ... today they're underwater, the shevlin mansion is worth less than they owe.

Is there a market for ALL the big shit in the future? Out in no where without a job, ... at least in town you can ride your bike to your micky-d job, the current system was never sustainable, a lot like the social security system.

We have tons of fucking non-sustainable pyramid scams. Daily we have new folks on this blog saying that we're negative, ... We're just calling things as we see them, perhaps nobody else has their fucking eyes open?

Anonymous said...

The fucking Bend Rich.

I have written much about it, here it is 9pm on a friday night, just came back from Parilla, they shut the fucking blues down at the Bend Roots at 7pm, because it was loud.

It was supposed to start at 6pm, the cops pulled the permit at fucking 7pm, and everyone moved to Victoria.

This is fucking Bend, all summer long Parilla has fucking tourist music every fucking friday night, the first fucking tourist free night that the locals can enjoy music in a permitted planned event for locals the fucking cops shut down in 1/2 a fucking hour.

Again I note ALL fucking summer long Parilla has had music at 6pm outdoors every fucking friday and I never seen a fucking cop. Tonight at 7pm, 1/2 hour after the music started a swarm of cops surrounded and executed orders.

Why pray tell? Fucking Blues, white mans nigger music, too much for a city of golfers, but then tourist season is over? Too fucking much for city of Hell.

This city is out of its FUCKING MIND.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Amenity Vultures

DUDE! I would NEVER call a Californian an "Amenity Vulture". My God.

I called them AMENITY LOCUSTS. Calling them "vultures" implies some primordial sense of intelligence & warm-blooded consciousness. They're bloodthirsty insects that would just as soon eat their own children as they would gorge on the rotting maggot-filled intestines of a corpse.

"Vultures"? My God.. calling Californians vultures gives vultures a bad name.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Fucking Blues, white mans nigger music...

Uhhhhh... wa?

White Mans

Nigger

Music

OK. I think I got it straight.

Anonymous said...

Me humbly so folking sorry, even after a few pints, yes your right "Amenity Locusts", Not "Amenity Vultures".

I must have gotten party A confused with Party B.

Amenity-Locusts descend on a little shit-hole town that will not pay for sewage.

While Amenity-Vultures simply wait for a town like Bend to implode, so they can buy all for penny's on the dollar.

How pray-tell did I get the two confused?


p.s. Notice that now we're getting more and more RE Ho's on this website trying to turn the ship around, ...

Anonymous said...

White Mans
Nigger
Music
OK. I think I got it straight.
*
In some circles, in olden days the blues was black-mans music.
Note my use of the term 'niggers' is reference generally to Bend house-niggers, aka RE HO's, and Pro's.

Tonight at Parilla where they have fucking Music every fucking friday at 6pm, tonight the cops came in like a fucking METH bust and shut it all down for being loud, its was NO MORE fucking loud than all fucking tourist summer.

The band was called FX, very good bend blues band, white guys, middle age with soul, if you can find that in Bend.

Once again PIGS on the payroll, fucking tourist season is over, white trash blue collar working people having a good time, and the fucking Condo-HO cops shut it down.

The interesting thing is this was a fucking 'event', albeit NOT an event owned by Aaron Switzer of the SORE AKA boss-hogg-event-man Bend.

Anonymous said...

"Vultures"? My God.. calling Californians vultures gives vultures a bad name.
*
I agree, perhaps me getting too fucking old.
In the day you used to be able to drive out to Silver Lake, and head south to fremont forest and go up in the mtns lots of beautiful Oregon Vultures. Recall that an American Eagle is just a vulture, Me so sorry to confuse RE Amentity Locust with RE Amenity Vulture.

Yes, Vultures will always survive.

Let's play this one down for the record, we need a Bend Implote-a-Meter, and a Bend Vulture-Watcher.

Long time to go, I talk about this frequently with out of town folks with money, Bend is NOT an investment and never has been.

It's not just cheap on the vulture scale, desert land, deteriorating RE in remote tracts ( Pronghorn, Brasada, ). Bend has always been a low rent, only the poor rent, and a few folks that don't need to work buy. Thus owning 'investment' property in Bend has always been a bad idea.

Even in the day of most recently, the RE HO's at NWXC were saying, don't worry about rent, your $500k home was appreciating 30%, e.g. $150k/yr, which was 10X of rent, thus only morons RENT their homes in Bend. The fact is that in Bend, and its always been this way, MOST renters are bad news.

Anonymous said...

We wanted the Locust to be intelligent savages; they're like the Uruk-hai in LOTR, only with guns. The Uruk-hai would organise themselves, line up and then storm in - even though they look like horrible monsters. That's what the Locust essentially are: bipedal, thick-skinned, but also smart enough to build and use their own weaponry.
*
Locusts don't need to be dumb, as seen above from LOTR, that locusts can be smart and orderly, while I do agree that vultures can act more on an individual basis, which is much better on a contrarian level.

Thus 'amenity locust', while a swarm, and well armed, do in fact exhibit intelligence.

Anonymous said...

"Vultures"? My God.. calling Californians vultures gives vultures a bad name.

*

You can be a watcher, a waiter, or an opportunist.

I don't anything prefixed by 'cali' can be construed as 'good'. Anything prefixed by 'cali' in general can be assumed to be coarse profanity.

Yes, vultures are beautiful, the American Eagle is a Vulture, thus the icon of America is a vulture.

Anonymous said...

wow, nothing like stirring the antpile. you guys are pathetic, foaming at the mouth...

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