Monday, September 24, 2007

Bend & Columbia Air -- Redux

Damn it, damn it, damn it.

I had a nice little post concept comparing Bend and Columbia Air ready for this week, complete with prescient predictions of doom for both. I know, maybe too similar to last weeks Popeil Pocket Fisherman post, but Columbia and Bend are an even more appropriate comparison, and the problems and fate of both seem inexorably connected. Bend and Columbia Air share so many characteristics.

First, both are what I can only describe as "high quality". Or are at least perceived as "high quality". In this particular comparison, I think Columbia has a clear premium over most other plane makers. It's hard to compare Bend As A Product, but it is difficult to live in a place for purely voluntary reasons, and say that it sucks. Bend appeals to me quite a bit, and I still think that despite increasing deficiencies, it's still a pretty nice place to live. Both Columbia & Bend as "products" have definite appeal.

But they both also share a insidious "profitless prosperity", something quite widespread during the NASDAQ bubble. Companies with absolutely no hope of EVER making money came out of the woodwork. Some were even located in Bend, if you can believe that. Highspeed Networks was designed for the sole and specific purpose of going public and making its founders rich. Highspeed got a ton of private funding which it proceeded to burn through with breathtaking rapidity. They turned down repeated offers for many millions. They were holding out for The Big Score -- $100 million each. Alas they missed the top, and by 2003 were wiped out, the scraps were picked up by vultures for next to nothing.

Columbia Air was not built for the specific purpose of capitalizing on a bubble, per se, but it suffered much the same fate as Highspeed. Chronically high costs in an industry with astronomical capital needs. Columbia tried to cure the condition by positioning itself as a "Premium" manufacturer, and charging quite a bit more than others in it's space. This is often a good move for low-unit makers. Like Aston Martin, you become a manufacturer of choice for those who are willing to max out their spending for The Best. This was probably a good choice for Columbia.

But like Aston, you have to accept your marginal niche role. You can be abnormally hurt by cyclicality. This did not happen to Columbia though. "Small aerospace" has been inordinately strong for years. 9/11 actually helped this sector as many chose to forgo long lines and either go with small planes or "timeshare" like outfits like Netjets. Columbia Air was built from baby to adolescent in the best of times.

But even this was not enough to keep Columbia afloat, and it was almost entirely bought by the Malaysian government. Now, I can tell you that the Absentee Owner Funding My Company From Afar, And They Happen To Be A Sovereign Government model of running a business is fraught with financial & moral hazard. "Loans" quickly become "Income" to be spent, instead of invested at an internal ROI to cover the payments. And as the Sovereign Sugar Daddy loans become "income", there comes to exist a persistent condition of Profitless Prosperity. The company NEVER makes money, and is actually plagued with HUGE LOSSES, but nevertheless continues to survive, and curiously enough, thrives like never before. From all appearances, things seem to be going swimmingly, when in fact the income statement and balance sheet are rotting from the inside. This is Columbia Air: All spit & polish & prosperity with great product... but an insidious financial condition guarantees the implosion of the financial Ponzi scheme.

This is Bend. Apparent prosperity of almost unknown magnitude. Upgrades here, there, everywhere. Expansion in all corners, and the Engine of the Local Economy experiencing so many years of asset inflation, that the balance sheet looks positively glorious. Income IS HIGHER. ASSETS are at all-time highs. Everything looks positive, and regressing back to The Bad Old Days really seems mathematically impossible.

But Columbia Air & Bend will almost certainly share the same fate. If you haven't heard, the vultures are circling Columbia, with Textron (parent company of Cessna) having made an offer to purchase the company. And it wasn't due to "independent interest", it was due to the Malay's circulating a memo to anyone and everyone that Columbia is available for bid in whatever form bidders saw fit, whether carved up carcass or on-going operation, because otherwise Columbia is going bankrupt. The Malays pulled the plug.

Yes, Columbia Air, like all Ponzi schemes is finally collapsing. Taking in a dollar, and selling it for 80 cents will ultimately implode whether backed by governments or little old ladies. The Malays just delayed the inevitable by buying a majority interest several years back. It probably cost them tens of millions.

The same will happen to Bend. Doesn't seem like it should, but it will. And figuring it out is pathologically simple. LOOK AT OUR INCOME STATEMENT. We've doubled income since 1990. Gravy. Great. But our assets are up 5 fold. Lots of people make the argument that virtually all Bend homes are 100% equity financed. Ummm.. if you believe that, I have an aircraft maker & a bridge to sell you. Bend is income has been funded by the liability side of it's balance sheet for at least 10 years. To some extent this has always been true.

But in the past 5 years, the practice of borrowing money to actually refi loans, and then begin paying those loans until the next refi has basically been a way of life. EVERYONE in Bend does this. Look at any business downtown, and look at it's income: trace those dollars back to their "Source" and you'll find they originated from the liability side of some companies or individuals balance sheet. NOT income. This place is, like Columbia Air, experiencing liability-fueled prosperity, aka Ponzi Scheme.

Columbia Air. Bend. Same thing. Prosperity. Ever rising employment. Premium high quality products. Wondrous untold good fortune. All fueled by Ponzi financing, and doomed to self-destruct.

STATUS REPORT: Columbia Air was sold Friday. They had to accept an offer, or declare BK. From Aero-news.net:

Sources involved in the negotiation tell ANN the company "ran out of time" in negotiations... and had to accept an offer, from an as-yet-unreported entity, that had a late-Friday deadline.

What that means for Columbia Aircraft Company... current and future customers... and the company's employees in Bend, OR... remains to be seen.

ANN confirmed earlier this week the identity of Textron, the parent organization overseeing the mighty GA manufacturer Cessna, as one of the interested parties for Columbia's assets.

It is not known whether Textron was the winning bidder.

A bidder, almost certainly Cessna, had a Friday deadline, which was probably accepted. This Whitelaw guy had ZERO CHANCE of doing this thing. LBO financing is bye-bye for this cycle. Be a decade or so before it's a viable scam. "What it means for Columbia Air" is as PLANE (ya like that?) as the nose on my face: it'll be dismantled, and every employee will be unceremoniously fired. Or possibly offered a min wage call center job in Kansas. Columbia Air is NO MORE. Like all Ponzi Schemes, it collapsed of it's own weight.

Similarly, Bend will also go down. In a strange twist of perverse logic, since the numbers required to keep Ponzi schemes alive must by definition escalate geometrically, the marginal largess of the process makes it seem like everyone is getting richer & richer right up until Judgment Day. But it will end. It's ending RIGHT NOW. The first hints of distress have begun. And don't be "tricked" by "linear thinking". If someone owns 20 homes, with equity of a million dollars and asset values of 20 million, the liquidation of 19 homes to pay off the debts is virtually NEVER possible. Not only that, the forced liquidation phase itself makes the valuations almost entirely fictional. Read Duncans blog about the sport card bubble, the pogs bubble... once it bursts, the liquidation itself cascades values to losses that simply defy rational analysis.

We're in the midst of the forced liquidation of the Bend RE Ponzi Scheme. "The Dealers" (aka Builders) are no longer engaged in the "retail" end of the business, and are liquidating WHOLESALE. Like Columbia, who used to sell individual planes, the business facility itself must be liquidated. Bend home selling is a process that is evolving into a completely untenable business model. As I noted in previous comments, if builders don't drink the Kool-Aid and stick to cost-plus work, shutting down is no problem. But an awful lot of Kool-Aid was consumed, and the vast majority of builders got into the land-spec business, which was enormously lucrative. So lucrative in fact, that many builders were really stealth land speculators -- building homes was really a marginal & unpleasant sideline. And in the fantasy World of easy money, many borrowed without end to buy The Dream. THIS is what will lead to forced liquidation around here. There IS a HUGE amount of borrowed money that is being called due, and one need only look around to see that we are awash in "product", but there are no buyers. None. None at any price. This is what happens when the bottom drops out.

Ye Olde BendBubble2 has apparently been "rediscovered" by what I thought to be a near-extinct species: The True Believer. Yup, Life Is Good and his ilk seem to come out of hibernation to give me and others a good swipe. Welp, it's all good, I hope I give as good as I get. LIG and others post their prophesies of Eternal Optimism, and it's probably good, because sometimes I and others (you know who you are) seem to dwell excessively on the negative.

But unlike others, I am really not the slightest bit interested in driving out the Amenity Locusts, or conducting a one-man assault on Bend home prices; I don't even really think such a thing is possible. I'm a REALIST. I want to know WHAT IS REAL. I want to plan, and have the best shot at planning a viable if not prosperous future. One look at Columbia Air should tell you why: Every single employee there is in an uncomfortable place right now. Virtually ALL stand to lose their jobs. ALL OF THEM. I posted what I hope was a "realist" view of the Columbia Air situation several times on this blog, given the limited information I have. And that "prediction" was "Marketing the upside of a Ponzi Scheme is FUTILE, and you'd better start looking for alternative employment... NOW!". Predictably, I was shouted down, although I remember a fairly honest & heartfelt appeal by someone who obviously worked at Columbia to stop cutting them off at the knees. Of course I never did, and never could cut Columbia off at the knees; a realist knows this. It was really an appeal to prolong the life of a totally unsustainable Ponzi scheme.

This is what we are hearing in large measure regarding Bend RE by Perma-Optimists. And in one regard, I respect this ebullient life-view. You've got to have Believers, otherwise we're all still cavemen. Seeing past the problems & obstacles to a truly innovative end is a great advance in the human condition. People like this make the World go round.

Unfortunately, in certain circumstances, people like this die. Every year, Perma-Optimists die on Everest. They ignore their own mortality, they become blind to the truly insurmountable nature of the obstacles that face them. They refuse to acknowledge the "Wake Up Call" that reality is sending them. And they die. Columbia Air probably sent the Malay government signals that All Is Not Well, every quarter. But it strong human nature not to admit you're wrong, and Perma-Optimists have One Unified Response To Peril:

THIS TOO SHALL PASS.

Sometimes it does pass. But when it's a Ponzi Scheme, it CANNOT PASS. Mathematically impossible. It MUST IMPLODE. The Optimist never sees this, and usually perishes. The realist also many times perishes, because they underestimate the true severity of the problem. Understand this: Bend RE is doomed to implode. If you are an eternal optimist, that funny feeling you have in the pit of your stomach is your body trying to tell you that Things Have Gone Decidedly WRONG. Good, happy attitudes are NOT ENOUGH to save you. MORE MARKETING is NOT A SURVIVAL TECHNIQUE.

HOMESELLERS: Do you want to survive? Check PPSF comps on BendBB, find THE LOWEST in your neighborhood, and price your home(s) 10-20% below that. NWX has already fallen from a low PPSF of $164/sf in Feburary, to $130/sf now. NWX and EVERY SINGLE NEIGHBORHOOD in Cent OR will make NEW LOWS. And the losses that have been largely mild so far, will become geometric. Marginal half-measures will simply ensure YOU NEVER SELL. OK, and this is NOT A PREDICTION. It's already happening. Any straight-shooter Realtor not experiencing Perma-Optimist Kool-Aid poisoning will tell you the same. You can see in BendBB data that several Realtors are having heart-to-hearts with their non-discretionary sellers (95% of the population -- not 0% as rumored), about dropping price to neighborhood rock-bottom PPSF lows to get'er done. And THEY ARE SELLING.

Unfortunately, thus begins the geometric cascade lower. You must continually cut price, because like lemmings running off a cliff, price cutting becomes the Only Known Way To Liquidate Product. Ask Duncan. It's straight cutthroat competition on price only. Anyone who used to sell product out the front door, starts going wholesale and shipping product on pallets out the back door. AND NO PRICE IS TOO LOW IN THE END. Bubbles attract lemmings like old people attract stink. And as Duncans shop illustrates, you can do OK surfing bubbles, but by God you gotta know when to bail, and bail like hell when the time comes.

I really feel bad for Columbia Air employees. A lot of people made commitments and moved here to build this company, bought into & drank the local Kool-Aid, made huge personal financial commitments, and will now have to unwind them in a market that has simply died. It really is a disaster. And it WAS NOT the point of this blog to cut off Columbia at the knees (as I said, a Ponzi scheme collapses of its own weight... ALWAYS), but to give people a REALIST view of Bend, and what you can really expect from this place. I think prior to BEM's kick-ass blog, there was nothing but 100% UPSIDE MARKETING, PERMA OPTIMIST MARKETING of all things Bend. And that type of thing DOES serve some sort of purpose; there needs to be vision and hope in many situations. But like climbers on Everest who don't survive the journey, there also needs to be some "grounding". Some rubber-meets-the-road real facts, free of spin and bullshit. THAT is what I have always hoped to achieve with this blog. To be the yin to the yang of Kool-Aid poisoned Bend media.

And maybe NOW, many Columbia Air employees (and probably MANY MANY OTHERS IN THE FUTURE) will see why I and others are more than a LITTLE UPSET by Bend medias "EVERYBODY HAPPY" party line. It's perma-optimist. It "feels good". But it's a phantom, and if you make a large scale life-change based on it, you will be financially destroyed. And they DO NOT CARE if you go bust. You are the grist of the Bend media mill that grinds people like you up. And if you read this blog, and think "NOT ME!", well then do as you will. Nothing and no amount of evidence will convince you of ANYTHING.

Just remember though, when you're SUFFOCATING financially having drank the Bend Kool-Aid till your mouth is permanently discolored, that you were warned. As goes Columbia Air, so goes Bend. The parallels are so numerous it's almost comical. Incompetent management, liability funded prosperity, and on and on. We will go down, we ARE going down. Bend is the Ultimate Ponzi Scheme, and it must end. This blog has pointed out the roadsigns on the path to complete destruction ad nauseum. If you think this blog is The Cause, you are deluded and are a slave to the idea that Marketing Solves All, and by extension Negative Marketing Destroys All. I repeat, this blog IS NOT NEGATIVE MARKETING, it's REALISM. Maybe I am equally deluded into thinking that True Believers can be convinced to TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR WHAT THEY HAVE CREATED. But like most 5 years old children, convincing them of something they do not want to believe is impossible.

WHAT TO DO?
1) FIND LOWEST PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD
2) PRICE YOUR HOUSE 10-20% BELOW THAT
3) SELL YOUR HOUSE

WANT ABSOLUTELY GUARANTEED DISASTER?
1) INCREMENTALLY LOWER YOUR PRICE TO KEEP IT "MIDDLE OF THE ROAD"
2) GO BROKE

220 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 220   Newer›   Newest»
Anonymous said...

Just one question.

How do you make your post show up as 7AM the next day?

Forward your clock?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

How do you make your post show up as 7AM the next day?

Click "Post options" on Blogger. Just below where you edit the post.

Anonymous said...

PeeDoh, you are are spot on with this post. Enjoyed it almost as much as the Picto-Post. And yes Tuscany Pines is doomed for failure. Greenspan is dead right when he says prices need to come WAY down. Anybody buying now is a fool. Destination resorts far from infrastructure have no chance. Anyone see the glut of "cabins" on the resale market. These "cabins" were required to meet the counties Destination Resort over night lodging requirements, cause hotels are big money losers. So sell the "cabins" and put them in an overnight rental pool - like anyone body would rent one of these things.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Although it appears Columbia accepted some sort of bid on Friday, I still wonder if running 'er thru a BK won't still happen. Remember, the founder is still suing for $1MM+ back pay. If I was Cessna, I'd have them go BK, and wipe out the liabilities, lawsuits and all.

I'd give the chances that Columbia remains a going concern at 100:1. Almost certainly an asset liquidation. That means 100% firings, but with the obligatory "We will hire up to 8 people to answer phones at minimum wage, if they uproot & move to Zimbabwe". Of course, just like Unicom, this is 100% bullshit, and they KNOW no one will accept such a ridiculous deal.

Anonymous said...

So sell the "cabins" and put them in an overnight rental pool - like anyone body would rent one of these things.

*

I know people that own them in Metolius, they rent for $300/night. You have to have your cabin in the pool to buy there for $600k. The typical rental is once or twice a month on the weekends. The $300/mo generally all goes to those that run the property management, and then owners still have to pay for all the new lawn equipment every year.


The good news is those that bought years ago for $200k have made good money, the bad news is now they're once again worth what they originally cost, or less.

Anonymous said...

The $300/mo generally all goes to those that run the property management,

*

Whoops, $300/night, all goes to management.

Owners get the right to pay $75/night cleaning fee when they stay in their unit.

Anonymous said...

Columbia has a smart owner, aka Malaysia.

Now how can we find the 'smart owner' of Bend and tell him its time to pull the plug?

Sadly, the bastards running BEND poly-ticks can just continue to hire PR firms to 'fix' problems. Just like the boy with his finger in the dike.

In Bend there are 100's of PR firms with their fingers in the trough, and NOBODY has the balls, brains, or guts to quit giving them taxpayer money to stand their with their fingers up their ass supporting Bends tenuous bullshit over-hyped bubble.

This is ONE good example of when dictatorships, are better than democracy's, Malaysia, has said enough is enough. Bend will just continue doing stupid shit until WE ARE ALL BANKRUPT, and then say "Nobody saw it coming".

Anonymous said...

Bend will just continue doing stupid shit until WE ARE ALL BANKRUPT, and then say "Nobody saw it coming".

*

It's really too bad, if we started an austerity program tomorrow, and got the good old boyz, back into the program, and send KURATEK and pals packing, then perhaps things could be fixed.

These folks are going to RUN bend into the ground, and then ask for taxpayer money to fix THE PROBLEM THEY CREATED, and then we're supposed to pay the same people who created the problem, to fix the problem. DEJA-VU welcome to Bend.

Anonymous said...

City of Bend's Juniper Ridge Master Developer was recently quoted on his thoughts about our city (BEND) ...

"It's like a town in Mississippi in the '50s with this good old boy network, its going to be difficult to get anything done."

- Ray Kuratek, Managing Partner
Juniper Ridge Partners, LLC

Anonymous said...

Hell I think that Ray Kuratek has got a shit lot done in Bend during his two years here. He has become the self appointed RASPUTIN, and has the whole fucking CITY BALLS in his hand.

Pretty damn impressive, a guy from out of town in a k-mart suit, from cali. This would have NEVER happened in Redmond.

Anonymous said...

This town, county does not need anymore nightly rooms. Destination Resorts are just subdivisions outside the UGB. No less than 12 of them are coming online. Most far from any significant services. $600K+ for a "cabin" on BLM land. Don't get fooled again.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Price drops on BendBB show a Darnel Estates house (MLS 2702070) out on 27th on the Eastside, getting whacked for it's 4th price reduction to $299K. It's 2,448 sf, so that's $122/sf. This place was listed in Feb for $389K. Taken a 23% haircut on it. It's vacant, and a nice little place. If you MUST buy for reasons beyond your control or for personal preferences, $122/sf is not too bad. Just be prepared to lose another 20-30%.

It's listed by TheGarnerGroup.com, and Garner seems to have shaken off her Kool-Aid hangover enough to have a heart-to-heart with her clients about smelling reality. This is probably a blood-in-the-water seller, so you might be able to spank another 15% right off.

Shit. We really are about to see 2 digit square footage numbers on new homes. Seemed impossible a year ago.

Anonymous said...

Mr. Dough,

I am offended by your blog. Your mother did not raise you right. Your "friends" are equally vile.

Bend is marvelous! And you all know it.

You all need to read a manners book and go to finishing school before you can join civilized company.

At least please refrain from the potty talk.

http://marvelousbend.wordpress.com

Sally Heatherton,
PROUD Bend resident

Anonymous said...

Hey Sally, don't read it if you don't like it. It's great you are a proud Bend resident, but real estate and consequently the local economy are still f!!!!d, pardon me, screwed.

Duncan McGeary said...

Thanks, Sally. That really made my day. A good laugh.

You were being satiric, right?

Anonymous said...

Sally: Yes Bend is the best. Lets see what makes it so great, is it because no dogs can play in the river anymore? Or is it because retired Bendites are being evicted out of the mobile home parks? Or maybe its the meth problem? Maybe a Corrupt city government is what makes Bend so great. Oh yes extreamy high realstate makes it a great place for the working class, whom enjoy struggling. Need I say more. These people on this blog remember when it was a great place to live. Long before it became what it is today. I agree with Paul,you dont like it, dont read it. Go shoot your shit at the local country club, you can all sit around and talk about how wonderful Bend is. Leave the blogging to us.

Anonymous said...

Duncan, you are a local merchant and should not associate with these horrid people. They are making you cynical.

As for you, anonymous, I don't even know who you are. You know nothing about the beautiful life I live and the beautiful people I know.

I'm depressed just trying to have a conversation with you people.

I am going to go think POSITIVE thoughts and consider what I might post tomorrow on my POSITIVE blog.

Friendly people who have GOOD things to say about Bend are welcome at my blog. They will not be pushed away, as they are here.

Sally Heatherton,
A GOOD person

Timothy said...

Oh. My. God.

Sally, I'm speechless.

Timothy said...

Damn it. Damn it. Damn it.

That makes me want to start a blog. Don't think I could top Sally's, though. :-)

How many bubble blogs are there room for in Bend?

Duncan McGeary said...

Sally,

I'm speechless, too.

I'm responsible for my own words, but no one else.

I guess I feel that this is a valid forum for debate. Paul-doh has decided not to censor at all, which at least has a certain integrity.

Do I agree with everyone else, especially in use of language? Not by a long-shot. I try to ignore the 'vile' parts.

I've decided on my blog to exert a little control, though I've rarely had to.

But, thanks for posting your feelings. It was so unexpected and refreshing, it made me hoot.

I hope that people will realize that there are a wide range of opinions on this blog --

Why don't we not attack Sally for having an honest reaction, guys.

Duncan McGeary said...

I love it when someone cuts through the clutter....

Timothy said...

Yeah Duncan, no doubt. Stunning debut. I just about cried.

I'm going to be checking that damned site every five minutes. :-)

Duncan McGeary said...

Hey, Bilbo/Bendbust. I know what you're planning. Back off, bud. She posted under her own name, her feelings. Let it go.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

http://marvelousbend.wordpress.com

Shit... ya had me going for a second! Good one!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

BendBust... you so CLLAAAZY!

"Sally Heatherton"... is that some sort of anagram or something? My money is on Sally = BendBust.

Anonymous said...

I am real estate agent that folllows your blog----good job on this artical!

our still full of shit much of the time, but good artical

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Just so we're all straight: Sally Heatherton DOES NOT EXIST. NO "HEATHERTON" in Deschutes.org owning ANYTHING in Bend. SAlly is someones idea of good blogging fiction... pretty funny too. Setting up a blog, just to press our buttons... THAT'S A LOT OF WORK! Good one Sally.

Maybe Sally is BendBust's alter ego or something?

Duncan McGeary said...

I want Sally to exist. I really really do.

Timothy said...

>>"Sally Heatherton"... is that some sort of anagram or something? My money is on Sally = BendBust.

I was thinking it was Duncan. I might still think that. It bothered me that Duncan believed her. The cookie thing was priceless. No one is honest enough to admit they bought cookies they claimed to bake.

Duncan McGeary said...

Hey, I believe anything if you say it with a straight face.

How do I get to her blog?

Duncan McGeary said...

Bendbust is strangely quiet. Except that post about dogs has to be him.

Timothy said...

If it's Bust, he's hired an editor. :-)

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I want Sally to exist. I really really do.

If she's one of them hot MILFy types... me too. But like most "hot chicks" on the internet, "she" is almost certainly an ass-ugly guy with the mentality of a 14 year old.

That said: I WANT TO BELIEVE!

Anonymous said...

Boyz, only two days ago I was warning about middle age cougars, and the how they can be found in RE and LMT, well guess what today's BULL stole my fucking story.

*

Judy Gervais, 51, was laid off from her job at the Clear Pine Mouldings Inc. mill in 2001. She went back to school and started working as a massage therapist. This month, she opened her own shop on Deer Street in Prineville.
New economy, new jobs
Former millworkers, loggers seek new careers as the region’s lifestyle evolves
By Lily Raff / The Bulletin
Published: September 23. 2007 5:00AM PST

Judy Gervais is a licensed massage therapist with little interest in spa-like rub-downs for lily-livered pleasure-seekers.

She focuses instead on strong, persistent treatment for patients grown weary of chronic pain. The Prineville resident uses her elbows and forearms to drive her weight into a person’s back or arms — whatever hurts — to knead out painful knots.

Duncan McGeary said...

O.K.

I read the blog.

I've been punked. Always trust your first reaction.

Still funny though. Sally should exist, even if she doesn't.

Anonymous said...

MILF, MILF yes, MILF, trouble is in Bend a MILF is also a cougar, and they'll literally take you to the cleaners and get the farm.

Anonymous said...

Duncan McGeary said...

I want Sally to exist. I really really do.

*

Sally was at bendbb's party last. Bendbb usually dresses up, but last night he was a girl calling himself sally.

bendbutt said...

For the record bendbust has been been offline most of the day, actually getting some work done on this beautiful day.


I always read the thread from the bottom up, so I have not yet gotten to 'sallly', but it must be good.

Buy, ah shit there's generally ONLY 3 or 4 of us, given that the history here is six virtual for every real. My professional guess is that 'sally' is a figment of duncans memory, especially given that he was the first to smell the fart. Ah whatever, if he real female actually found this fucking vile blog, what in the hell was she doing here? Does her husband know? Is she a cougar?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Spoke too soon on that Darnel Estates home: There is MLS 2702067, a Darnel Estates McMiniMansion with 2,545sf now priced at $299K, or $117.50/sf.

Folks... it is simply a matter of time before homes break below $100/sf. Shocking to hear myself say this, but we'd be within a reasonable distance of "normal" at that point. Of course, we'll slice thru "normal" like Jewish grandmothers through self-esteem.

These people are doing the right thing, to the extent that is possible in a barren market like this. Rock Bottom PPSF will get you out today at $110/sf, whereas dreams of reflating this souffle will have you ride this beast clear down to the $60-80/sf depths.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The cookie thing was priceless. No one is honest enough to admit they bought cookies they claimed to bake.

My wife thought that was classic. Really Laughed at that one! Makes me think it was really a woman, because only women can really appreciate the hilarious irony of actually performing this "skit" on other women.

dartagnan said...

ITBYB, I have a somewhat personal question: How the HELL do you find the time to write all this shit???

dartagnan said...

"Sally" is writing satire, and most of you aren't getting it.

Anonymous said...

Ok, I read sally and her blog.

Basically what's going on here is we're now leading the news cycle. The WSJ article was really about how fucking strange Bend is, hell they could have written about rich suing each other @ BT, but NO they wrote about how a politically correct nanny couldn't even hang her clothes in fucking GREEN oregon. That is really fucking something.

Who do they fucking quote "MIKE HOLLERN", biggest fucking nutcase in bend, aka boss hogg hollern, aka brooks fucking resource.

Sally could be dunc, but personally, folks are starting to realize nationally that BEND is fucking imploding. WSJ touches the light side, where boss-hogg himself is once again cash poor, but this time house rich, rich with houses worth pennys on the fucking dollar, and whats he fucking worried about??? A fucking g-string on some cougars laundry line.

I have read the WSJ everyday for 30+ years, these kinds of human interest story's are for PURE COMEDY. THE whole fucking country is NOW laughing @ BEND-OREGON. Thus once again, ALL the taxpayer money in the world will not change the FACT that those that RUN bend ( HOLLERN ) have their fucking PRIORITYS FUCKED UP.

Now to sally, if it ain't DUNC, then its just some opportunist trying to get folks that depend on bendbubble2 for ALL their non BULL/SORE news, to realize there's something new in town.

My fucking guess is that 'sally' will get bored in a few weeks, its good, its funny.

I think this all goes back to the WSJ article, BEND is one fucking bastion of 'political correctness', yet when a cougar hangs her g-string, boss hogg hollern has a fucking conniption. Bend is a fucking hillarious town, and we don't even to make any thing up.


Here you have a company town, ran by one man, a town that has been run into the fucking ground and is starring at bankruptcy, and what is our own 'godfather' fucking spending his time on?? Fucking g-strings on clotheslines, this is a fucking NERO moment. Nero may have fiddled, but HOLLERN had his BINOS out looking for g-strings, while bend burned down economically to the fucking ground.

Timothy said...

My wife thinks it's a woman, too. She said a man wouldn't think to write about peeing at 2am. :-)

Maybe it's even a realtor? Maybe one fed up with the business? It's someone who can write, anyhow.

If it were a bulletin board, I'd say guy for sure. But lame-ass wordpress blog? I'm thinking a woman now, if it's not Duncan.

Anonymous said...

My wife thought that was classic. Really Laughed at that one! Makes me think it was really a woman, because only women can really appreciate the hilarious irony of actually performing this "skit" on other women.
*
I agree, but what kind of perverted woman would be on this vile blog???

Stop, please stop, no don't stop, stop, I mean yes, I mean no, don't stop, stop, ....

Timothy said...

>>I have read the WSJ everyday for 30+ years, these kinds of human interest story's are for PURE COMEDY. THE whole fucking country is NOW laughing @ BEND-OREGON.

Yep. I agree. You know the writers and editors were laughing to high heaven when they wrote that story.

"Sally" might not even live in Bend.

Anonymous said...

If it were a bulletin board, I'd say guy for sure. But lame-ass wordpress blog? I'm thinking a woman now, if it's not Duncan.

*

Tim, I agree, its dunc all over, and besides like I said, he was the first to smell the fart, your all talking about how it was a woman, but in the guy world, why did dunc set himself up to the be the target of the vile group?? Perhaps dunc's wife helped, but then again, he's a fantasy guy, and most of us are science and business people, I have no idea what may lurk in the mind of duncan.

It was definitely setup for this group, I doubt anyone other this this vile group of similar minded vile people would even get the joke.

That said, the folks UP @ Awbrey must be following this blog, and now that they're famous it could have been any card club up there, just having a good time, and laughing their asses off at the clothesline war.

Anonymous said...

I doubt that Sally is Duncan. It just doesn't ring true. Though if it is, kudos to him. And if it isn't, kudos to the real author. I eagerly anticipate their future posts.

-a 20 something girl who must be demented for reading this blog.
Hey, do any of y'all have a groupie opening?

Anonymous said...

You know nothing about the beautiful life I live and the beautiful people I know. - sally milf

*

I do sally, I have been writing forever about Bends 'beautiful people' for a long time, we on this blog depend on the on the Bend Beautiful for all our material.

Bend is special, Bend is exceptional. Easy HELOC money has transformed Bends common white trash ( with a little finishing school ) into an East Coast paradise.

I think Bend now rivals Marble Head, MA or even Province in terms of sophistication. In the last five years beautiful realtor's, mortgage brokers, and title officers have made Bend into a cultural paradise.

We have our own term for the beautiful we call them Condo-Ho's. Not a day goes by that we don't show gratitude for Bend finest citizens and most beautiful people.

Timothy said...

>>-a 20 something girl who must be demented for reading this blog.

What are you wearing?

Anonymous said...

I love this site, I'm a fourteen year old girl, and I would love to attend one of Bendbb's party's.

p.s. my mother is a MILF/COUGAR, one of Bends finest specimens, at her peak, I would love if we could all get together and party.

Anonymous said...

There is NO surname "heatherton" in Bend, and nothing in the DIAL system, thus this person smart enough to use an alias.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And see if you can spot the trend in Darnel Estates lowest PPSF:

Jul: $152/sf
Aug: $136/sf
Sep: $117.50/sf

Down 23% since July 31. Not even 60 days.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

How the HELL do you find the time to write all this shit???

Me? What about BendBust? The bastard write a novel a day.

And I only post the big stuff in about an hour or two a week. Look at Duncan, and other "daily" formats; they write at least as much as I do. Also, I made a personal commitment to download 5% less porno every week once I started blogging. That alone freed up about 60 hrs/week.

Anonymous said...

As my good friend Norma DuBois insists, “This is Central Oregon. This is Bend. People want to live here.”

*

Sally is a RE-HO, how sweet, she does belong with US.

Anonymous said...

The cookie lie is VERY reminiscent of a scene in sappy novel on working motherhood ("I Don't Know How She Does It" - Pearson).

The heroine passes off store-bought cupcakes as her own at some school event.

I can't imagine a man would ever read that book.

Timothy said...

What I'd like to know is where the hell does the bird feeder story come from? :-)

Nicole said...

As someone who is looking to buy a home in the next year, I of course love your blog.

I worry a little that I am looking for information to support my hope that home prices will drop dramatically - just as current home-sellers look for optimistic real estate agents - but oh well.

You addressed your recommendations for home-sellers in this post. I would love to hear your recommendations for people looking to buy a home here in the next 12 months. How long would you wait? Would you offer $100 psf, or wait until the prices drop to that level?

thanks for your blog

Anonymous said...

Well boys, there might be more perverted, (or at least a little twisted) women reading this than you might think. I've been following this since Febuary ( I think, a number of months anyway) It's how I start my day. (see I am a little off) I have been wondering about the gruop insanity in C. Oregon for a few years now and was thrilled to find this site. I also check out the Bend Economy board. Dottiebug

Anonymous said...

What I'd like to know is where the hell does the bird feeder story come from? :-)

*

Most of these community's have rules against any external structure, color of paint, ...

A stick in the ground is a structure, so is a child's playhouse.

It goes back to the NAZI like cleanliness every thing has to be perfect and exactly the same.

A bird feeder is an eye sore, exactly like a clothesline, there are rule's against bird feeders.

This is like the curtain story @BT, when your home curtains-up, when your gone curtains-down, its not just a suggestion, its the LAW.

Anonymous said...


I can't imagine a man would ever read that book.


Are you suggesting that bendbb is a 'man'? I don't think so.

Anonymous said...

How long would you wait? Would you offer $100 psf, or wait until the prices drop to that level?

*

I have written on this subject a lot, especially back in April.

While this bubble will be down for 5+ years the worst hysteria is generally early on. The foreclosures will got for 5+ but they'll be dumps.

One thing to think about is that 'owning' a home is NOT a good investment and will not be for years. Also DO NOT BUY a home in Bend unless you know your going to be here 10+ years, because you'll NOT get your money back.

Let's give some reasons for buying, ...

1.) you have pets, most rentals don't allow pets
2.) you want to do whatever you want, stay away from HOA (bird-feeder banning) tracts

A reason for renting is its cheap, you can get a great home for $800/mo in Bend.

If you REALLY-REALLY want a home, then it goes back to location, you must know what you like, lets say you have your heart on Drake Park area. Then you can get google or some other website that will send you all listings that come up daily, there are lots of sites that monitor craigs, and will send you listing daily of your criteria.

The thing is YOU DON'T want to wait for BOTTOM, because by definition its too late. Right now things can be had -50% if you shop, but beware, if you buy something now, your stuck with it. Currently we're estimating -70% bottom, this is NO market to try and make money.

I have said ONLY buy if you KNOW your NOT going to move for 10+ years. Study, watch, look, and find your home. Make sure its clean, loved, and in a good neighborhood that you want. Find out everything about the seller, like the maxim, I know the enemy, he doesn't know me.

There are ton's of homes right now that have been on the market for 2+ years.

Most likely and I hate to say this, but I have to, is that there are a LOT of NAIVE people on this FUCKING blog. MOST likely you don't have money, otherwise you would have bought, your going to get offended, because they always do, but you can buy a real nice home in Bend right now for less than $250k, but YOU have to have at least $60k cash.

Do you really have the fucking money? Is your credit fucking perfect ( > 780 score )? Do you have a 4X job that can prove you can pay the MTG.

There's a lot of people that want homes to be free, or almost and just walk in, you ahead by paying rent. Perhaps your paying too much now for a shitting APT, why not move into a new Shevlin Home rent for $800/mo and find out if you like the hood?

The reason BEND RE is imploding is that NOBODY has cash for a down, and NOBODY can get zero-down loans, and NOBODY has good credit, ....

MORE than likely YOU are part of the majority, it doesn't MATTER how low prices go if you can't even be in the game, because YOU are insolvent.

If you have MONEY today, you can buy homes ALL over Bend, nice homes for -50% right now ( 1/2 of ask in 2005 ), in my mind Bend was 300% over-priced in relation to 1998 prices. We're have down now, and another 1/2 to go, you be able to pick up nice homes in Bend for under $200k this winter.

A person can pick up the homes RIGHT FUCKING NOW, if you have the MONEY, and NOW HOW to write low-ball offers, and know how to close a deal. ALL this has ALREADY be written on this site.

There will be NO magic day that says 'bottom', just like there was no magic day that says 'top'. This winter and next spring will be ugly, too much bleeding for too long.

I'm suspicious of your rhetorical question, because we have already explained many times how to buy, and we have already explained why nobody can buy.

The average american has NO savings, the real question is "DO YOU HAVE $60K CASH to BE IN THE GAME?" Because your either IN or OUT.

This is why sellers cannot sell, because there are NO buyers, because they have NO money. Then there is the issue of +$450k ASK homes, JUMBO is very hard, lets hope your not looking at a JUMBO.

Lastly, I feel that many don't get I have said 2-3 times here on this response, DONT DO THIS TO MAKE MONEY. Unless you want to live in Bend don't BUY a fucking home here, because once you do, you'll never be able to sell for years, and your $60K if you have it is all tied up forever.

Anonymous said...

Lets say there is perhaps one woman on this blog. Answer this question, what is it about cougars in Bend??

Anonymous said...

Perhaps its time to list reasons to Buy a home in Bend?

I simply cannot think of any unless you want to work on your car, or have pets.

Even boss hogg hollern has said its not coming back for twenty years, e.g. another BULL market.

Anybody that buys a home today in Bend, would only be doing do because they wanted to live here forever.

Another thing that is clear that people don't get is reason homes aren't selling is there are NO buyers, there a ton of people that want a home, but that is NOT a buyer.

A buyer is ...

1.) perfect credit score ( > 780 )
2.) 20% down, e.g. +$60k cash in your bank account that you can PROVE you saved
3.) A job or income source that PROVES you can pay the mtg

The above has been reduced by 90%, prior to 2007 88% of Oregon buyers had bad credit, no down, and stated income.

This is the reason for the bubble burst, there are NO BUYERS, when somebody here says "I want to know when to buy a home". The answer is do you MEET 1-3 criteria above? Otherwise next question.

There are NO buyers, that is the fucking problem, and BUYER is not some fucking moron that likes to go out and look at homes on the weekend. A buyer is someone who qualifies, and 98%+ of the looky-looks today DO NOT QUALIFY.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

DONT DO THIS TO MAKE MONEY

Yeah, if you're not in it for a minimum 10 years, and you don't care if you break even, or even lose a little, don't buy yet. And make sure, to the best of your ability, about your job prospects. A LOT of Columbia Air people I KNOW thought they had near-lifetime employment there.

Really, your job is more important than buying dead-bottom. If your job is solid, you can ride thru the bottom to the other side. If not, you'll be like Columbia Air types who will be forced to liquidate into a totally dead market.

That said, you can rent here for $6/sf/year. Divide that by your rate of return & see what you should pay:

8%? 6/.08 = $75/sf
7%? 6/.07 = $86/sf
6%? 6/.06 = $100/sf
5%? 6/.05 = $120/sf

Some of the absolute rock bottom PPSF stuff is in that 5% ROI range. Of course, that is without tax, maintenance & other costs... you'll have to figure that out on your own. But in general, you should shoot for an ROI that matches your mortgage interest rate. That's around 6.5%, so something in the low $90's/sf (TOTAL COST) would be reasonable. Of course, you won't find that... Bend RE bubble, you know.

And yes, if you don't have 20% down and a great job, or jobs, this is all a moot point. The Eastside is where we should gauge the buy/rent tradeoff, and like I say, at current rates, the total cost should be around $95/sf, or the home itself (without taxes, maint, etc), should be about $85/sf.

So these 1,800 sf McStampout Gold rush whacky shacks they stamped out by the thousands should be $153K before buying really MEETS renting. They are currently $299K new.

Anonymous said...

Interesting thought written by by Roger Ehrenbergeconomist on seeking alpha.

While it might not be economically rational to hold on in a depressed market, it would clearly cause greater emotional costs to sell than the economic benefits it would generate. And economists themselves just need to "get real" - people don't want rational economic explanations as a prescriptive for their behavior. They want to feel good. And if feeling good means holding on to losers, then this is what they'll do, regardless of what big-brained economists may say.

Therefore, policy-making needs to take into account consumers' inevitable "irrational" behavior, as this is a constraint that is very real, time-tested and one of the few immutable certainties of life.

Anonymous said...

>>So these 1,800 sf McStampout Gold rush whacky shacks they stamped out by the thousands should be $153K before buying really MEETS renting. They are currently $299K new.

Mr. Dough,

Your mistake is in equating renting with owning. No one wants to rent. Renting is for lazy people with no hope. I believe the American people are an optimistic people, and that they will ignore the renting "option." Except for low-class people, of course. Those $300K houses will be $400K before I can finish my glass of expensive champaign.

Sally Heatherton,
An OPTIMISTIC Bendite

Anonymous said...

I actually believe Bend real estate should be FREE! The duties of ownership are in fact so onerous that no one should have to pay a red cent! I predict that prices will fall to 1 cent on the dollar once people figure out that living in a home is a horrible misfortune that we should in fact be paid to endure. That would put prices at at more like $3,000 for one of those "McStampout Gold rush whacky shacks". Not until the one time price of ownership is cheaper than renting for a single year will we see market stabilization really come around.

Joey in Sisters said...

Could Anon please chillax with all the f-bombs?

PLEASE?!?!?!

It was extremely old in the last "Popeil Fisherman" post. And now it's ancient here. Please stop visiting all the bars for a couple days.

Anonymous said...

To address the question regarding all the cougars in Bend (from a womans perspective) I can only guess as I am not a cougar (too young, but not that young) It probably has something to do with boredom and our youth obsessed culture. Not to mention the readily availible was to appear younger. I think earlier posts offering an explanation may have hit the nail on the head...............Dottiebug

Anonymous said...

Please stop visiting all the bars for a couple days.
*
JEEEEEEEEEEEZU FUCKING CHRIST, ITS MONEY NIGHT ITS HAPPY HOUR @ DESCHUTES.

FUCKING EH!

Anonymous said...

No one wants to rent. Renting is for lazy people with no hope.

*

Economists have recognized for about 2-3 years now that it makes more sense to rent, if you care about NOT losing money.

Buying a home in the last 4 years is only about buying money, yes if you want to LOSE a lot of money quickly, then buy, on the other hand if you want to save money. Then RENT.

Anonymous said...

While it might not be economically rational to hold on in a depressed market, it would clearly cause greater emotional costs to sell than the economic benefits it would generate.

*

Everyone that could buy, did buy, and in BEND morons bought 2 or 3, its not about rationality, its about BLEEDING to death.

There was NOTHING rational about buying 2 or 3 homes on a min wage salary, just because they let you do it. Now keep those homes in the next 5+ years means you either have to rob banks or walk.

I think mr. seeking-alpha is too far away from Bend to see reality.

Also most in Bend bought to get rich by flipping, this in itself was always a short term play, once the mass of BEND realizes that they now have to hold for 10+ just to perhaps keep their head out of water, most will get out of this sleazy little town.

Sally Heatherton said...

I'll be at the Deschutes Brewpub this evening at the bar. I'll be wearing my favorite purple valuer. I'm an attractive middle age female.

Sally Heatherton,
An OPTIMISTIC Bendite

Anonymous said...

Oh please, no one would believe I'd say such a thing. I will NOT be at the pub, buddy.

And I'm not just attractive, I'm a knockout. In fact, I had my nails done this afternoon.

The fabric is called "Velour," and I don't have any, save for a marvelous vintage cap with a lambskin band.

Sally Heatherton,
A STYLISH Bendite

Timothy said...

I see you have a photo now at your blog, Sally. So...your Awbrey Butte neighbors would recognize you?

Anonymous said...

I love Sally's site, it is so positive. Sally is what white trash like me calls a little pig.

George of the Jungle said...

I think mr. seeking-alpha is too far away from Bend to see reality.

George think bendbust is too far away from reality to see Bend.

Anonymous said...

WE LIVE IN A JUNGLE!

George Rules the jungle!

Anonymous said...

I think mr. seeking-alpha is too far away from Bend to see reality.
**************************

1929 real estate in Philadelphia bottomed about 1936-1940 at 20-25% of their highs. This was 5-8 years later than the stock market low.

This shows that people just could not to bear the idea of selling at a loss. The article is right.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Cessna out front to buy Columbia, officials say
Bend aviation firm first will restructure; what it all means for workers is unclear


Columbia Aircraft Manufacturing Corp. in Bend filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy Monday and announced it has reached an agreement to sell to Wichita, Kan.-based Cessna Aircraft Co., the country’s largest maker of general aviation airplanes, according to officials from Columbia and Cessna.

Columbia listed approximately $60 million in unsecured debt to 1,000 to 5,000 creditors, according to its filing in U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Portland.

Robert Stangarone, vice president of communications for Cessna, could not comment on whether Cessna would keep Columbia’s plant and employees in Bend.

He said those details are still being worked out.


Uhhhh, right. "What it means for employees" is already determined, and it's exactly what I said: The vast majority will be fired, and a small number will be offered jobs in KS. Columbia, as a continuing entity in Bend, is no more.

Look at these two contradictory statements:

Lancair International Inc. CEO Joseph Bartels says that in the long run, Cessna’s investment in a Central Oregon product will be a boon to the region. Lancair is a Redmond kit-airplane manufacturer founded by Columbia’s creator, Lance Neibauer.

“In the short run, it will be a bit of an inconvenience to those who were working (at Columbia),” Bartels speculated. “But if you have a major aviation player like Cessna here, how can that be a bad thing?”


And this:

Neibauer, Columbia’s founder, left the company in 2006 and has a lawsuit pending against it, alleging the company denied him severance pay. The company has not responded to the suit, citing a court gag order.

U.S. investors never warmed to Columbia, Neibauer has said, but the Malaysian government did. By 2002, the Malaysian government acquired controlling interest in his company. News that the company he started is filing for bankruptcy saddens Neibauer.

“I’ve got a lot of friends over there,” he said. “This is bad in every way I can imagine it.”


“But if you have a major aviation player like Cessna here, how can that be a bad thing?”

“This is bad in every way I can imagine it.”


The Bartels guy is more out of the loop than I am. Dude, the company is being DISMANTLED. CESSNA IS NOT STAYING. They're one of the hyenas that will tear Columbia apart before returning to their den.

"A bit of an inconvenience" for employees? Really? Ya think? Bartels probably needs to get his ass fired to figure out what a "bit of an inconvenience" it really is.

Anyone noticed that the Columbia BK is practically a sidenote on Bend mainstream media? It was about the 6-7th story on KTVZ. The furloughs got more coverage. I think Super Burrito got more coverage when it closed.

I've also noticed that the vast majority of RE stories are NOT available online at BendBulletin.com. Bend RE used to be the leading business story on BendBulletin.com, like clockwork. Now that it's in a tailspin... nada. But I'll give 'em this, they actually explore reasons for why employment stats seem to defy rationality: Official figures seem to be holding up while the construction industry here has been cut in half. Commercial construction, less overtime, employee "hoarding", and illegals, are the explanations.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

“There’s really quite a surprising and long list of companies that have used the Chapter 11 format to help them restructure their business,” said Al Kennedy, Columbia’s lawyer...

Some notable companies that have filed for Chapter 11 include Delta Air Lines, Texaco Oil, Continental Airlines, Northwest Airlines and Federated Department Stores, the parent company of Macy’s.


Oh brother. This is the obligatory "CHAPTER 11 HAPPENS TO EVERYONE" party line. Columbia is not really alone... EVERYONE GOES BANKRUPT ULTIMATELY.

"Now you folks don't give this another thought. Nothing to see, nothing to see. Bend is STILL A PARADISE. You can SAFELY PURCHASE LARGE QUANTITIES OF REAL ESTATE. Please, come visit our many t-shirt shops, pizzerias, and knick-knack emporiums... and pick up job applications while you're there! Then come look at the vast swaths of $950,000 homes we have for sale. You'll want to be comfy after a long day of delivering pizzas at $7.90/hr (plus tips!) and watching your 401K get chipped away. And ladies, we don't want to leave you out! We have plenty of housekeeping jobs ready right now! We don't even have to fire illegals when installing Whitey, cuz they were never technically employed here in the first place! It's WIN-WIN! Actually, it's WIN-WIN-WIN-WIN-WIN-WIN. You win, we win, White-flight visitors/condo buyers win, employers win, illegals win (by getting deported), and there's always an extra WIN that we just celebrate at deep."

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Monday’s filing leaves the future of one of Central Oregon’s largest employers, with 400-odd workers, in question.

OK, again, just so you can really PLAN YOUR LIFE: This filing LEAVES NOTHING IN QUESTION. Columbia is being dismantled, and sold off piecemeal. Bend media, of course, want to try to create some sort of "uncertainty" regarding the companies future, and this probably goes for all others engaged in the process, since filing Chap 11 immediately KILLS ALL SALES (Would you buy a $400K airplane from a place that is going out of business?).

Columbia Air is DEAD & GONE. Ultimately Central Oregons economy will follow.

HEY, BEND MEDIA: DO YOU SEE WHAT IS HAPPENING? 99.9% T-SHIRT SHOPS AND KNICK-KNACKS, AND 0.1% REAL JOBS, MEANS BEND REAL ESTATE IS GOING TO IMPLODE. DO THE MATH. I KNOW, YOU DON'T GIVE A SHIT ABOUT ANYONE EXCEPT YOURSELF & BOSS HOGG. BUT REALIZE THAT WHEN THE TOWN IS NOTHING BUT AMENITY RETAILERS, THAT ABOUT 4,000 PEOPLE WILL LIVE HERE, YOU'LL HAVE YOUR "ASPEN". YOU'LL ALSO HAVE ABOUT 30,000 EMPTY HOUSING UNITS WHICH WILL ACT TO DEPRESS YOUR AWBREY HOME PRICE DOWN TO $50. IF YOU DON'T CARE NOW, YOU WILL."

Timothy said...

I'm going to assume that some of these employees own homes. Are there local replacement jobs for these people? Or can we expect to see a few more houses for sale soon?

Anonymous said...

Why is the city managers and council not being held accountable for their actions? Why no recalls? Why do the people of Bend let this continue? Just talk no action.

Timothy said...

>>HEY, BEND MEDIA

I wonder what it's like for these local "news" people. They probably have a lot of pressure (like from Sally's blog) to NOT cover bad news. When things are slumping, they invariably try to spin it as a bad spell that's finishing up. So, when reality goes like this: fine, boom, peak, plateau, slump, pain, recession, bottom, recovery, they cover it like this: fine, boom, boom, boom, fine, fine, fine, that sucked but things are headed up, boom.

Timothy said...

>Why is the city managers and council not being held accountable for their actions? Why no recalls? Why do the people of Bend let this continue? Just talk no action.

The answer to that is easy, but you might not like it.

Most people who live in Bend don't give a damn about Bend. They are short-timers. They'll pretend everything is working until it's obvious that it sucks, then they'll move.

It's not like people in Bend grew up in Bend. There's no reason to waste time trying to save it, or even care about it.

And, off topic, I seriously want to get with Sally's hot assistant.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

From THE PLAZA amenity list:

Each deck is concrete poured with full drainage systems and glass paneling that offers a homeowner full viewing capability.

Damn. "glass paneling"? Uhhhh, I thought those were referred to as "WINDOWS".

"Full viewing capability"? Wow. Not like those shoddy Eastern block "WINDOWS" that allow LITTLE IF ANY "viewing capability".

Folks, rush over to The Plaza, and have a look at these innovative new features. They're called "GLASS PANELS", and I really think they'll be all the rage.

Holy Crap. "Glass panels that allow full viewing capability". What's next?

"The floors at The Plaza offer full gravity-defying HOLD-UP floor capability, that keeps you from crashing thru to the underground garage."

"Walls and ceilings were designed into the Plaza from the start, so you don't feel like you're living outside."

"The 'Separation Panels' offer the convenience of doorknobs, with the security of Keep Out Of My Unit usually provided by ordinary doors."

Anonymous said...

It's not like people in Bend grew up in Bend. There's no reason to waste time trying to save it, or even care about it.

*

Your, right I think over six months ago I was saying "lets help those that want to move, move out, and get it over with".

Some many here want to leave and need to leave, but they can't sell all their flippers, so they just stay and bleed.

The city council enabled the flipper-fuck-fest ( theres that F-word again ), thus all flippers love the city politicians.

As long as EVERYONE in Bend was making money, however all the money was made because IOU's were placed in the city treasury to fund infrastructure. These are implicit IOU's, as the future citizens of Bend are going to be taxed to shit to pay for the subsidized building boom.

I think there is hope, the 450 old-timers that signed the Juniper-Ridge letter, are mad as now. They were silent while they were making money, now they're mad.

The next election cycle will be interesting, its always been said that less than 3-5% of a society is in involved in its politics. Certainly in Bend that may even be lower.

Anonymous said...

This is the obligatory "CHAPTER 11 HAPPENS TO EVERYONE" party line. Columbia is not really alone... EVERYONE GOES BANKRUPT ULTIMATEL

*

This is exactly how the bankruptcy of Bend will transpire.

No big deal, nobody saw it was coming, nobody cares.

Yawn,

Everybody will got bankrupt, do you see what the BULL is doing, they're turning worst case scenario for everyone into a common positive.

Right of life experience, bankruptcy, like child-birth or buyers remorse on Bend RE.

Kids at college get tased for asking tough questions, and leaders run city's into the ground. Happens all the time, normal.

Folks, this is the Fourth Reich. Germans Lost WWII, but the NAZIS Won.

Anonymous said...

I seriously want to get with Sally's hot assistant.

*

Does she have a name?? Is there a picture??

The clothesline story is now INTERNATIONAL, the whole world is now laughing at Bend, Oregon. Land of hypocrisy.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The 88,800-square foot, four-level project includes 42 no-age restriction condominiums...

Becky, I think it's good you're getting the word out that it's NOT an Old Folks Home... but what else is there to do?

You've got to realize, that the dream of packing the thing with Swingers, isn't going to work. It's a Geezer Magnet, pure & simple. Your KTVZ ads showing nubian young studs walking in the place is just wrong. It'll never work. Reemmber when you were 30? Would you buy a unit in a place like The Plaza? No.

It IS an OLD FOLKS HOME. Seriously, I'm trying to help. You've got to realize you've made some horrendous errors, such as building it in the first place, having the HUBRIS to think that YOU KNOW WHAT PEOPLE WANT (as you stated in the Bulletin), taking 200 years to actually build it, and building CONDOS into the Biggest Bubble Ever in The Biggest Bubble Town In This Country. ie YOU DRANK THE KOOL-AID. OK, sorry to review the unpleasant, but LEARN FROM YOUR MISTAKES, and The Plaza is a doozey.

OK, you've built an Old Folks Home, whether you like it or not, it's time to accept it and market as such. They've got to be real rich & pretty stupid. OK, that narrows down your marketing demographic very well: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OLD PEOPLE. Golf courses, libraries, grocery store lines that have come to a dead halt, cars with their blinkers on, and the like. THIS is your target market. Seriously. Continuing to try to sell this thing to Swingers is just like BURNING MONEY. OK, you're blowing thru $100K/mo, so you need to wake up & smell the OLD FOLKS.

Start showing herds of electric scooters going to Wal-Mart. Hot nurses going up Grampa's corn chute clear to the elbow. Electric paddles shocking Grama back to life. SERIOUSLY.

OK, you've built an abomination, as the result of Kool-Aid poisoning. THIS is exactly why I said RE types would ACTUALLY WISH THE BUBBLE HAD NEVER HAPPENED. $100K BURN RATES ON MORONIC IDEAS. YOUR ENTIRE ADULT WORKING LIFE RUINED CUZ YOU DRANK THE KOOL-AID.

You other RE types should heed this warning. Thank the Lord you actually never had enough money to create a BLIGHT ON THE PLANET like The Plaza. Breeze, bless her heart, will GO BANKRUPT BECAUSE OF IT.

Timothy said...

>>Does she have a name?? Is there a picture??

No picture. Just a description.

"A cute little blond with everything pointing north. When I was in school, only a couple girls had bodies like that. Now it seems like they all do. I’m not sure why. They all work out, of course, and they have that growth hormone in the milk. If only we had had that!"

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Are there local replacement jobs for these people?

Yup, Epic Air has 10 job openings. If I was them, I'd pick over the best, and knock their salaries down 50%.

Anonymous said...

Anybody want to place bets on how soon sally gets bored?

Posting too frequently. Redundant. Too much on places other than Bend.

Good concept however, a satirical site that puts a positive spin on Bend Realtor's.

I'm sure at this point in the game a Realtor needs a laugh.

Yesterdays BULL had a story about the economy that said the that MTG brokers were down to 280 from 320. Does anybody know what our Realtor number is? I know it was 2,000+ a while back, that got to be leaving, given that commissions are down 80% for almost a year now.

If sally really is a realtor, it would be useful to portray and inside view and the transition. My guess she(he) is not a Realtor.

The realtors I know just say "Working 4X harder for 1/4 the money". I haven't met one yet thats leaving, they're all like home owners, just waiting it out bleeding. Hoping the the other gal/guy leaves. They all know that +80% of the realtors have to leave for anyone to make money.

Timothy said...

I'll guess Sally's gone in a week. There's only so much to say. But I can't tell if it's a commentary on Bend or just a soap opera.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Does anybody know what our Realtor number is? I know it was 2,000+ a while back...

If I recollect, "The Wizard" said it was 2,640 or so.

dartagnan said...

This just in:

"Existing home sales slumped again last month, and a large home builder reported its worst-ever quarterly earnings today as fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis continued to cause havoc in the housing sector.

"Purchases of previously owned homes in August dropped 4.3 percent from July, sending sales to a five-year low, the National Association of Realtors said this morning. The annual sales rate fell to 5.50 million from 5.75 million in July. Existing home sales are down nearly 13 percent over the last 12 months." -- NY Times

We are a long, LONG way from the bottom, in Bend and nationally. Our Pretzeldunce Smirky McChimp is about to crown his glorious "legacy" with the worst economic cataclysm since the 1930s.

dartagnan said...

"The WSJ article was really about how fucking strange Bend is ..."

Did you read the whole story? Ot wasn't just about Bend; it was about how neighborhoods all over the country have CCRs against clotheslines, and people like Taylor are challenging them. She was just one example.

dartagnan said...

Let's give some reasons for buying, ...

1.) you have pets, most rentals don't allow pets
2.) you want to do whatever you want, stay away from HOA (bird-feeder banning) tracts


A few more:

You like to garden.
You like to have a yard.
You like to play your music loud without your neighbors complaining.
You like not having to listen to your neighbors' loud music, all-night parties, etc.
You like a little privacy.
You like to be able to fix your place up the way you want.
You like not having to worry about the owner of your apartment complex taking it condo and forcing you out.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

From BendBB:

Sally,

I want to know your take on the problem of the hamma-sexuals & Niggras in our proud country? It's probably too late to repeal womens right to vote and wear pants, and maybe too late to ship blacks back to Africa (although we should at least try), but we can at least act now to prevent other perversions of The American Way Of Life, such as hamma-sexual "unions", and the proliferation of mongrel races, such as MEXICANS, Palestinians, and The Deaf in our schools. Pretty soon we'll have Blacks, with Hispanic maids, hanging their clotheslines all over Bend. It truly will bombard the senses. Not to mention property values.

I bid you Zeik-Heil & Good Day,

Paul-doh

Timothy said...

>>You like to play your music loud without your neighbors complaining.

Wow. I wish buying a house could fix that.

Timothy said...

>>Did you read the whole story?

I read the whole story. I subscribe. MrsToes saw the article before I did and showed it to me.

It's pretty clear that they led that story with the comedy. They started off with Bend because of the outrageously finicky and contemptible quote the woman gave. I haven't heard anything like it since Morris the Cat turned down a bowl of the wrong kind of cat food.

Bend Economy Man said...

Some notable companies that have filed for Chapter 11 include Delta Air Lines, Texaco Oil, Continental Airlines, Northwest Airlines and Federated Department Stores, the parent company of Macy’s.

-|-

Monday’s filing leaves the future of one of Central Oregon’s largest employers, with 400-odd workers, in question.


I think probably one of the SELLING points of Columbia is that its workforce is so docile, being apparently non-union and having gone through layoffs and two unpaid, open-ended "furloughs" without making a peep, that they can be treated as less than an afterthought when the company's being moved. Columbia ain't GM, folks.

Anonymous said...

There are a lot of us out here
that are mad as hell with the
mess our city has become.
Frustrated because they ignore
the voters everytime. Look at
the stupid bus system. The
senior citizens had it better
with the old dial a ride. We
did not want a transit district
but now they are talking about
trying to get one going. Sure
fine, put the rest of the businesses out of business
with more taxes. Everyone will
be paying high property taxes for
a long time on inflated prices
from the boom. My 25 & 27 year
old native born bend kids , together with mom & dad will
not shed any tears when a few
of these A HOLES GO BANKRUPT
on their ugly subdivisions.
Don't even want to get
going about JUNIPER RIDGE ,
makes one wonder who is
greasing the palms of these
elected officials? It can't
just be all about resume
building can it?

Timothy said...

Wow. Is that poetry?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


I think probably one of the SELLING points of Columbia is that its workforce is so docile, being apparently non-union and having gone through layoffs and two unpaid, open-ended "furloughs" without making a peep, that they can be treated as less than an afterthought when the company's being moved. Columbia ain't GM, folks.


Ain't that the truth.

Wow. Is that poetry?

Long-winded Haiku.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

MrsToes saw the article before I did and showed it to me.

Please tell me that's not her real name! If it is, YOUR parents should be punished.

Builder/Realtor said...

It's probably too late to repeal womens right to vote and wear pants, and maybe too late to ship blacks back to Africa (although we should at least try), but we can at least act now to prevent other perversions of The American Way Of Life, such as hamma-sexual "unions", and the proliferation of mongrel races, such as MEXICANS, Palestinians, and The Deaf in our schools.

*******************************

WOW....please tell me this is a joke???? I am realtor/builder that has been reading your blog non stop for a while. I even write in some times, with some sort of half assed argument that has no legs. I am ready to come to the dark side; you have done a great job. Likely saved me a lot of money and pain, I am now open to the bubble we have and am damn near the on your team. I was even telling people about your blog left and right.

But you just fucked up. I am hoping to find the sarcasm in post. But am not seeing it? Maybe I am missing something? Perhaps the crap you believe in your recent post is what you believe, I disagree. But fine believe what you want to believe. Just don’t post your fucking sick thoughts on site that is; Debating the Bend Oregon Real Estate bubble, its implications for Bend residents, businesses, and the economic outlook for this area."

I am not some limousine liberal, that protests equal rights, fuck those people. But I have to say your bullshit beliefs, make me SERIOUSLY doubt the integrity of everything else you have written.

Please tell me this was a joke?? Am I missing something? Because I don’t want to be on Sally’s team.

Timothy said...

What can I say? Foot fetish.

bendbusthead said...

The American Way Of Life, such as hamma-sexual "unions", and the proliferation of mongrel races, such as MEXICANS, Palestinians, and The Deaf in our schools.

*

I believe that the above is one more attempt like 'sally', an attempt to change the subject. We have been on target for a long time. The focus has always been a debate about the Bend RE biz.

I have constantly spoke highly of the mexican. He is the sill plate that allowed the entire bend-bubble to happen, the mexican built most of the BEND RE.

The person here speaking HARE-CORE RACISM. Doesn't represent our TEAM. That said there will be more attempts to portray this group as insane, and there are many including BENDBB that want to see IHTBYB shutdown this blog to free posting, which in effect would kill the BLOG.

The one thing certain is that MORONS get bored, and if we all ignore hard-care moronic racism this person will go away quite quickly. If you feed them the feedback they desire the racism will only amplify.

The SORE & BULL would like nothing more than to dis-credit this blog, lets not them change the subject, lets stay on track and only focus on the Bend RE biz. Our MORONS will move on out of boredom, as MORONS by definition aren't interested in business.

bendbust

Anonymous said...

You like to garden.
You like to have a yard.

( dude a renter gets the above )

You like to play your music loud without your neighbors complaining.
You like not having to listen to your neighbors' loud music, all-night parties, etc.

( dude, ownership doesn't make you exempt from the cops )

You like a little privacy.

( renters have more privacy rights than owners, study the fucking tenant law )

You like to be able to fix your place up the way you want.

( this where I agree with you, a renter if allowed will destroy rental, thus I'm all for moron renters becoming owners )

You like not having to worry about the owner of your apartment complex taking it condo and forcing you out.

( I NEVER advised people to rent a FUCKING APT, I only said that for the past 4 years and probably for the next 4, it makes MORE sense to be a renter of a nice little home in Bend )

bendbutt said...

Please tell me this was a joke?? Am I missing something? Because I don’t want to be on Sally’s team.

*

There is a lot of Racism on Sally's team. I doubt that DOH wrote the racism, as anybody can be anyone else in these forums.

The fact is there is racism in Bend. The fact is there is MORE racism up in Awbrey where people like sally actually exist, than there is down at the Walmart where white-trash, mexs, and black rub shoulders daily.

The gated communitys of BEND are a bastion of racism, because they only exist to exclude people of color from all white hoods.

The rules that control every aspect of living in Awbrey are in fact racist by design, as no ethic person of any persuasion could ever tolerate the conformity that is forced on people who live in such drab, redundant housing tracts.

I doubt DOH wrote the racism, but if he did write it, it was a satirical ploy on 'sally' who lives in an all white mythical community where everything is perfectly clean and white.

Racist Sally said...

BEND IS RACISM.

The pacific NW is Racism

Look around, why do CALI'S leave?

Why do people even on this blog get so upset by Mexicans?

Oregon traditionally has three selling points.

1.) water, we have lots of it

2.) its clean, because white man only been here a little over 100 years to fuck the place up like east-coast

3.) Originally there were no blacks in Oregon, some historians actually believe the first klu-klux-klan orders stared in oregon. Oregon was always a white paradise.

Up until the 40's there were no blacks after dark laws in much of Oregon. Blacks were brought into Oregon during the WWII to build ships, in the great Vanport flood in PDX, all the black homes were wiped out, and the city refused to allow them to rebuild, and most left by design. Those that stayed moved to higher ground, that today has been yuppified, aka Mississippi.

Today a leading reason cali's move to Oregon, and BEND, is to escape people of color.

Bend is a racist paradise, which is why we always joke how Bend and its sister city Sand Point, Idaho are kissing cousins. Because the fact is Sand-Point and BEND are both bastions for escaping calis to run to, to hide from colored folk.

*

RE BIZ debate, this is a critical issue to the debate, the mexican is building bend, and bought the rat-traps, and the cali comes here to escape the mexicans, thus this aspect of the debate is legitimate and critical to understand how BEND markets their RE.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

What can I say? Foot fetish.

We all have our crosses to bear.

Timothy said...

People in Bend and other cities that are very white think they are not racist. Eugene is similar, and other middle-sized places in the Pacific Northwest.

I've lived in places that were about half black and white, including apartment buildings that were like that. I've worked with black guys and ladies.

People always have some hesitation in accepting other people unless they are mixed very young. Most people never get to do that in Bend.

People might intellectually try to not be racist. But drop them into downtown Chicago, Philly, or Cleveland and see how they act. They will be uncomfortable, and not without reason. When a black guy spots someone who is uncomfortable, he might say, "Hey, what kinda watch is that?" Just to throw you off. Happened to me first time I was on a big city bus, and it scared the shit out of me.

I have little tolerance for people who live in a sea of white who say they "aren't racist."

Builder/Realtor said...

Today a leading reason cali's move to Oregon, and BEND, is to escape people of color.

********************

Does anyone know anyone that moved here from Cali for those reasons? Sure there may be a few of those ignorant white assholes out there.
But the leading reason???


Come on……. Welcome to 2007 the majority of us our color blind.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Please tell me this was a joke??

Are YOU kidding? You've waded thru vast forests of sarcasm, but this one tripped you up?

OK dude, if this were serious, fuckin Jesse Jackson & Al Sharpton would have made untold pilgrimages here to protest...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

People might intellectually try to not be racist.

I find the eternal hypocrisy of "liberals" almost intolerable. Just think about it: What percent of liberals (I mean, hard core liberals) that you know are in an inter-racial marriage? Then, how about White Power skinheads?

Me? 0% for both (OK, I have to extrapolate the skinhead estimate... have to go to Sand Point & actually check someday...). When the rubber meets the road, ALL RACES stick to their "own kind". We're ALL INHERENTLY RACIST. Realists simply admit it. Liberals hem & haw & spew intellectual bullshit for 20 minutes to rationalize. Keeping "racism ALIVE" is actually an exercise for liberals to feel good about themselves. How much crap did Slick Willy spew about helping blacks or the homeless? How many black homeless guys did Bill & Hillary invite to stay the night at the White House? Liberalism is about selfishness & immaturity.

That said, Clinton was the best President of the past 20 years...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

But drop them into downtown Chicago, Philly, or Cleveland and see how they act.

Yeah, drop 1,000 single white liberals in downtown Chicago, then come back and see what's happened in 10 years. Well, 50% won't be married at all. Now considering that Chicago is one hell of a racially mixed city, you'd think a lot would marry to a huge variety of races, including black, white, Asian, Hispanic, etc.

But no. Liberals are statistically insignificantly different from Nazi skinhead racists in their Lifetime Commitments. If liberals practiced true RACIAL BLINDNESS, there would already be an enormous mulatto population RIGHT NOW, especially in big cities. Is there? OF COURSE NOT. Why? RACISM IS INHERENT IN THE HUMAN CONDITION. Whether you find it "intellectually vile" is irrelevant. RACISM is practiced by everyone, whether White, Black, Asian, or whatever. And of course, in a cruel twist of fate, those most adamantly declaring themselves ANTI-RACISIT, are the most vile, racist pieces of crap to ever walk the Earth... Jesse "Is There An Underaged Girl I Can Molest" Jackson, Al Sharpton (who I would have voted for as President... WHITEY NEEDS AN ASS KICKIN!), Louis Farrakhan, and so on.

The current movement to ensure that every WHITE MALE IS A VILE RACIST WITHOUT ANY PROOF (Duke Lacrosse?), is possibly one of the most over-the-top Racial Self-Immolations since slavery. Man, and 100% of America is jumping on the bandwagon, none with more gusto than White Male Liberals.

"YEA! I HATE MYSELF!"

What the fuck is this country coming to...

Timothy said...

Well, I don't buy the "everyone is racist" line anymore than I believe the "people are colorblind" line.

It's more complicated than that.

I am not racist when I'm in a room that's 50% white. At that point, I'm mixing around with everyone because they are all people to me and I lived in mixed areas, mixed apartments, mixed dorms, mixed companies long enough that nothing funny occurs to me.

It's a different story, though, if I'm the only white guy with 50 black people around me. In that case, I'm racist as hell. Doesn't mean I'm against anyone. Means I'm scared that because I don't know what to expect.

I walked through a black neighborhood once in the evening in a city I didn't know well. I was with three girls. I had no idea what was happening around me, because of course I'm just chatting with the ladies. All of the sudden there's a gang of black kids coming up to us.

Oh, kids, I think. Because they were only 7 or 8 years old. Then all of the sudden they're cussing at us and yelling, "what are you doing i9n our neighborhood?"

Why are we talking about race again, though? Is there a point?

Bust probably has a point that people would like to assume this blog is full of cretins.

But they'll keep coming back, because they don't understand what's happening to Bend or to the world economy.

Anonymous said...

Well, I don't buy the "everyone is racist" line anymore than I believe the "people are colorblind" line.
*

I didn't say ALL where racists.

Sebastian doesn't put up gates because he likes to it costs him more money, he puts up gates because it SELLS RE.

Everything is complicated. But pure and SIMPLE the modern BEND has institutionalized racism. WHITE-FLIGHT.

ALL of BEND exists to SELL RE, and BEND, or I say should OREGON, only has 3 things going, water, pollution, and white majority.

Folks are FLOCKING like hell to OREGON. Now, are we all racists? NO.

But just wait, because what we're setting up here is a big ALL-WHITE gated community out in the desert.

Like HOLLERNS subdivisions, and I mean ALL, no fucking ethnic person wants that polly pure-white bread shit. ALL these HOLLERN-HOMES are ONLY about white-bride, NO sign of color or white-trash, everything is sparkling white.

Is BEND all fucking racists? NO

The fact that BEND is a white place, makes people in their own fucking mind think their safe, those that have been around for a long time, no that safety is illusionary, as the desert is full of wacko METH folks looking for someone to rape and rob. But that is another story.

Anonymous said...

I am not racist when I'm in a room that's 50% white. - tim

*

I know your not a racist, nor are any of the team here.

That said, I do think that the substance of OUR "sally" is BEND institutional racism in its purist form.

Like 'her' comment about Walmart. That is where America shops, and America ain't white.

Timothy said...

I didn't mean you. Or did I? Geez, I can't keep track of who is who any more. I was referring to this statement that SOMEONE said.

"We're ALL INHERENTLY RACIST."

And maybe I wouldn't even disagree with that. We all make prejudgments based on all kinds of things, including color, height, attractiveness, etc.

Anonymous said...

What the fuck is this country coming to...

*

The problem, and it amounts a few basic code-words, and I'll say them,

Jew, Nigger, child-molester, ...

Being anti-semitic is worst than being a rapist, a child-molester is now hanging with a trial, that said virtually ever country other than our own allow 12 yr old marriages. Nigger, again its mind control.

Now why I mentioned the above, is the status-quo that HAS fucking BEND aka HOLLERN, would like NOTHING more than to label US as child-molesters, racists, ... anti-semites, ... Tomorrow it will be something else.

The white man is fucked in America, but that said who is to blame? He had a good 200 years here, and nothing last forever.

The BLOG is about debating the BEND RE BUBBLE. IHTBYB is not going to going to fix the white-man self esteem problem here or anywhere else.

We have met the enemy and he us.

Now lets remember to stay focussed on the Bend RE implosion.

What we have today in this NAZI BUSH era is a new witch-hunt, and this group doesn't need to be labeled as witches, as our opponents would want nothing more. These days this is all how ALL groups are brought down.

Anonymous said...

I find the eternal hypocrisy of "liberals" almost intolerable. Just think about it: What percent of liberals (I mean, hard core liberals) that you know are in an inter-racial marriage?

*

My favorite was police chief of PDX charles moose, when asked why he was leaving PDX. He said that he would rather be in the south where a man would call you a nigger to your face.

In PDX he found that the liberals were all kissy-kissy in public, but behind closed-doors they were far MORE racist than any he ever saw in the south.

I really don't think that Bend has a liberal problem, note the boyz that run this town are quite conservative. While a few POLS talk the liberal jive, its all con-artist talk.

Which is why the WHOLE world is watch Bend over this fucking clothes-line story, we talk and talk about environment here, how oregon is green. But NO fucking way can people live like 99% of the fucking world lives.

BEND IS RAN BY A BUNCH OF NAZI CONTROL FREAKS, and the liberal crowd are just their PR whores.

Anonymous said...

"We're ALL INHERENTLY RACIST."

*

It's true, animals do the same thing, and we are animals.

It's just the political control button of the week, most of the world is too busy looking for food.

America is a rich country that has to create problems.

End of Story.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

We all make prejudgments based on all kinds of things, including color, height, attractiveness, etc.

Right. That's all I'm saying.

if I'm the only white guy with 50 black people around me. In that case, I'm racist as hell.

Conditional Racism?

Well, actually I engage in much (pointless) mental cogitation... mainly to see what The Other Sides point is. Applies to RE, job searches, all sorts of stuff.

What's funny is everyone is all for flights of intellectual honesty... except when it comes to real tabboo subjects, like racism, symbolism, and stuff. Swistka? Evil. Japanese Rising Sun (the last thing thousands saw at Pearl Harbor)? Nut'n. Why? Why can blacks say "Nigger" with impunity, and practically get a ticker tape parade, and Whites are crucified? Just questions to figure something out, but by God you actually try to have a conversation about them... well, read back on this thread. Some guy basically said, "Everything you've ever written is INVALID because of a racial statement that I cannot figure out if it's sarcasm or not!". Nice. We'll get to the bottom of the issue that way.

But true: Racial discussion are largely irrelevant in this forum

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

America is a rich country that has to create problems.

No shit. Some of what concerns this country the most is shameful. My own opinion is that Homeless Kids is about the most important issue in this (or any) town. I just find it heartbreaking.

Covered once a year.

Cover it 5 times, and plead for contributions of food, shelter (even tents), sleeping bags, or whatever to get these kids out of living in cars in the DEAD OF WINTER, and the problem could be largely solved, I think.

"THEN WHY ARE YOU WRITING ABOUT THE RE BUBBLE PAUL-DOH, YOU FUCKIN BIGGOT!"

Dead right. I suck.

Timothy said...

>>Conditional Racism?

I'd call it "situational racism." In a ghetto, in a subway at night, etc. It's more about me wondering what they make of me

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


if I'm the only white guy with 50 black people around me. In that case, I'm racist as hell.


Darwinian Racism? You are definitely concerned with saving your ass in such a situation. There seems to be a propensity for species to achieve numerical superiority over those with distinguishing and DIFFERENT attributes... and either intimidate or kill them. It ain't exclusively human, it's ALL SPECIES. It's DARWINIAN. We are genetically racist.

Racism is DARWINIAN?

Ah yes... like so much liberal dogma, it ultimately contradicts itself. Our genes are trying to keep us "distinctive" in superficial features... Why? Does having distinctive species features serve our propagation somehow? I'm just curious... but having a conversation with someone about it is near impossible.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

From BEM in an earlier thread:

Bend Economy Man said...

OK so the quote Paul was talking about ("sold most of her units") was October '05. Then in February '06, she had 8 of 42 "under contract" and hadn't even started marketing the rest.

Breeze and [her husband] expect the building to attract local buyers who travel frequently, or who simply don't want to maintain a large house, along with transplants from Southern California or the San Francisco Bay Area who are used to high-end condominium living and are looking for it in Central Oregon.

Eight units are currently under contract for prices in the range of $700,000 to $800,000. Breeze will begin marketing the rest after the building's framing is completed, around May.

It should be ready for occupancy by December.



Then in February 2007, Becky Breeze had "moved" 4 more units:

A few blocks away above the Old Mill’s retail district, The Plaza, a purely residential condominium project, has moved 12 of its 42 units so far, owner and Realtor Becky Breeze said, at prices ranging from around $600,000 to nearly $2 million, although the building won’t be move-in ready until June.

In May 2007, The Bulletin repoted that "So far, 14 of the building's 42 units are under contract." Under contract? We've heard that one before.


Also, note that in February 2006, the building was supposed to be "ready for occupancy" by December 2006. In February 2007, it was supposed to be done by June 2007. And back in August 2005, it was supposed to be done by fall 2006. So the "soldness" of the condos isn't the only place where the Breeze-supplied info hasn't matched up. Maybe some financing issues?

Would you buy a "luxury" condo from this woman?

August 27, 2007 12:52 PM


From the Cascade Business News, The Plaza Is Built to the Hilt


About 25 percent of the units have been sold with the majority of the buyers categorized as baby boomers looking to down size.

It's hard to say where The Plaza is on sales... maybe someone should make a graph. But 25% of 42, is about 10 units.

Needless to say, The Plaza is probably going to go down as one of the most spectacular failures in Bend Real Estate Development History. It may well take down Breeze & Wurtzel, although are deep-pocket types.

If it is actually 25% sold, that lightens the burn rate to probably $75K/month.

Mark 'em down Becky. Keepin' em high, just means you'll end up owning 'em.

Anonymous said...

if I'm the only white guy with 50 black people around me. In that case, I'm racist as hell.

*

Let's get real boyz, how would you like to be a black guy in Bend, try 1 in 500. Golf Courses 24 of them in the Bend area, and all full of KKK folk in SUV's.

I can only thing of one black guy in Bend, and the is the county animal control manager. He's fine man. I cannot think of another black man in Bend. I have lots of black friends in PDX.


Our one or two black folk in a town of 70,000 crazy meth induced white RE flippers is some scary fucking shit.

Let's get real talking about one white guy with fifty blacks ain't ever going to happen in Bend. Let a black man drive a car in Bend and watch what happens. Now that is racism.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Our one or two black folk in a town of 70,000 crazy meth induced white RE flippers is some scary fucking shit.

Best Description Of Bend Yet!

Builder/Realtor said...

Are YOU kidding? You've waded thru vast forests of sarcasm, but this one tripped you up?

_________________


Ya this one tripped me up. It's that elementary realtor mind of mine. Glad to clear things up.

I just wanted to make sure I was not listening to a bunch of ignorant redneck bigots. At the same time It seems as if the majority on this blog is not a bunch of; Pompous, i think I am well educated, Al Gore reading, i am going to move to France
wanna be limousine liberals,

Timothy said...

>>Our one or two black folk in a town of 70,000 crazy meth induced white RE flippers is some scary fucking shit.

Yeah that's quote of the day for sure.

Anonymous said...

I just wanted to make sure I was not listening to a bunch of ignorant redneck bigots.

*

Actually we are far more PRO redneck, than PRO 'sally' Dubois, and ILK.

The Bend redneck is an endangered species. If you want to talk racism, look at this fucking city. The entire Bend City Code is designed to cause as much pain as possible to expedite the exit of white-trash.

What I find most shitty about Bend is the fucking Hypocrisy. The beautiful can talk a lot of shit, and sound offended, but look how quick they can clear out a trailer park and replace it with a golf course.

Bend is racism.

Bend is hypocrisy.

Bend is full of shit.

Bend is about selling real estate for inflated prices to cali's seeking a white flight to a gated paradise.

Timothy said...

I don't know if this is on or off topic anymore.

http://tinyurl.com/326946

“It might be that older adults have greater difficulty inhibiting these stereotypic thoughts despite their efforts to avoid being prejudiced,” writes psychologist William von Hippel of Australia’s University of Queensland. Older adults might be "more prejudiced than younger adults because they can no longer inhibit their unintentionally activated stereotypes.”

Anonymous said...

Common Sense - "The accumulated prejudices before the age of 18" - Albert Einstein

Anonymous said...

The white man is fucked in America, but that said who is to blame? He had a good 200 years here, and nothing last forever.

*

I really have no sympathy for the white man, the injuns were far better stewards of this land.

Hell, Boss Hogg Hollern with his cali MBA is a classic example of white mans blight on the Oregon Desert. This MOFU just builds and builds, it don't matter that there are no buyers, just keep building more Nazi like control freak sub-divisions. Ban pick-ups, and you keep out the Mexicans. Ban music and you keep out the blacks.

Ban clothes-lines, and you keep out the hippys.

Everything, everywhere Hollern touches turns into fucking Nazi perfection. Perfect nazi community's right out of 1932. The New World Order has been perfected right here in Oregon.

Look at NWXC it's like going to Dachau in Germany. Perfectly neat and clean and everything in its fucking place.


Is fucking HOLLERN a fucking NAZI? The only thing missing from our modern day hoover-villes, which we call Hollern-Villes is fucking Pinkertons. When will Hollern create his own Blackwater? Then he can have folks that put up there laundry taken out. Hell he can certainly get his force exempted from law, they bend city council would rubber stamp that.

Anonymous said...

Deschutes County, Oregon - (Bend Bulletin ): Another swastika crop circle has been discovered in a remote Deschutes County corn field prompting fears 'aliens' are making a political statement about the state of affairs in the Bush Administration's Department of Agriculture.

The giant Nazi symbol follows reports from a local cult lobbying the Vatican for the canonization of Hitler's Pope Pius XII that an image of the Third Reich's favorite pontiff appeared recently on a Yom Kippur matzo.

"As if there was any other evidence that we need to get our guy elevated to sainthood!" culot leader Mrs Doris duBois said today.

Meanwhile Deschutes County sheriff department has launched an investigation into the huge 100 meter-armed crop symbol which was etched into a field of winter wheat last Friday.

In 1998 and 1998 similar swastikas were found etched not far away including an unusual one superimposed onto the backside of an image of former President George Herbert Bush.

Recently swastikas have been more frequently seen in Central Oregon. Local Real Estate agent Sally DuBois surmised that the Nazi hysteria is good for business and helps sell homes in a difficult economic time.

Builder/Realtor said...

Below is the MLS changes today, it usually looks something like this, What I don't understand is how all my real estate friends open the MLS daily, see numbers like this and still live in LaLa land, well actually I do have an understanding but more on that later. These are the numbers for last 24 hours changes in the city of Bend listed and sold by realtors.


New Listings 19
Back on Market 6
Price Increases 3
Price Reductions 27
Contingents 0
Pendings 7
Solds 5
Expireds 4
Inactives 6

Anonymous said...

Six reasons why Senile Ol Boss Hogg Hollern Should Retire himself to the Plaza. TODAY

***

TOP REASONS TO HANG OUT YOUR CLOTHES


Electric dryers use five to ten percent of residential electricity!


1. Save money (more than $100/year on electric bill for most households).FN1

2. Conserve energy and the environment.FN2

3. Clothes and sheets smell better.FN3

4. Clothes last longer. Where do you think lint comes from?FN4

5. It is physical activity which you can do in or outside.FN5

6. Clothes dryer fires account for about 15,600 structure fires, 15 deaths, and 400 injuries annually. The yearly national fire loss for clothes dryer fires in structures is estimated at $99 million.FN6

Timothy said...

I know some Realtors and some of them, like you, have seen the light.

Without some level of optimism, nothing would ever get done. People need to be a little more optimistic than the facts would indicate in order to get through the day. The problem is that these optimistic tendencies can grease the slide that leads to complete denial.

There's a whole branch of economics called behavioral finance that studies the errors that people make with money. The thing to remember is that these errors are consistent--they are part of our make-up. You can't completely avoid them, but I think it's wise to know how they affect you so that you can recover from these habitual mistakes, if not avoid them completely.

If you're interested, you can always start with the wikipedia entry, but there are good books written for non-economists that cover behavioral finance and your everyday life.

Anonymous said...

From: Jethro
To: Sally Heatherton

Yo Sally, this is Jethro. Jennifers live-in, I came up with her from Atlanta, and yes I’m black. I haven’t left our apartment once since we got here.

Being black folk in a town of 70,000 crazy meth induced white RE flippers is some scary fucking shit.

Bend is out of the 1950’s KKK territory. I need to be with my own people.

Jen says once you go black, you don’t go back, I got some bro coming up here for a score. I ain’t going no where in public in this town. If you want some meat and motion, why not come over with jen at the end of the day.

Bend is no Atlanta, but I think our hospitality will reassure you. Jen makes some great comfort food to boot.

I’m scared to death here, but my ability to love will not be impeded by the whiteman.

Jethro

Anonymous said...

I know some Realtors and some of them, like you, have seen the light.

*

I didn't get my answer the other day.
IHTBYB said there were 2500? RE's peak? What is it now? How quick are they getting out, or moving out?

They RE's I know say "Taking in 1/4 commissions, working 4X as hard", and these are folks that have been here 20+ and ain't leaving.

That said I have met dozens of 'Realtors' during the last year @ deschutes, and its always the same story. They 'rent' at BT, they have been here just a few years, they're generally middle-age white guys, that have just changed career.

Better yet what I have seen a ton of is 55 year old 'retired' white-guys from cali that got their RE license before coming here, and just passed the Oregon test.

My gut feeling is the vast majority of 'realtors' here in Bend, just got here during the boom, and figured all they had to do was be here and make money.

The thing is, NOTE that they're ALL renters, they're ALL smart enough to know that the prices are over priced, and that they can rent a nice mcMansion in BT and be able to bail when-ever they want.

The long term realtors I know, generally have a spouse to supplement income, and they tend to have acreage out of town. ( Living the dream )

I think that BT is network central for realtors.

A question might be is our newbie 'realor/builder' an old timer? I doubt it if he's just figuring out what's going on.

There are a ton of builders that came up from cali in 2004 and bought $300k lots and are now under-water, ... The old time realtors albeit down 75% in commission, are surviving. My guess is that the new realtors are making ZERO commission.

Why denial? Well first of all it was supposed to come back this summer, it didn't. Everyone is hoping the other guy pulls out.

Ok, we know that MTG Brokers are down from 320 to 270, that's almost 20% down, my guess is that we may be down from 2500 realtors to 2000. That is still way too many, I think most would like to see 200. It's the class problem here. Everyone knows there are TOO MANY, but everyone is waiting for the other guy/gal to leave. Thus what we have is REALTOR PARALYSIS. They just sit on their ass and bleed to death.

Of course the realtors aren't that fucking stupid, over the years I hear consistent themes from them, over a beer at Deschutes, its amazing how a beer will let a man tell you what he really thinks.

1.) That golf-courses and MT-B, ONLY exist to sell RE.

2.) That its better to rent than buy in Bend.

So there you have it, the old time realtors yes they OWN, because they bought 20+ years ago for nuttin. The new birds are generally renters, because they know Bend is one big ponzi scheme.

In summary its going to be very easy for the new <10 year realtors to leave, but that said they'll all wait each other out. All things being equal they'll all go broke at once, which means there will be a TON of shit for rent up at Broken-Top ( BT ).

Timothy said...

Bulletin story this morning makes it sound as if the jobs will stay in Bend.

Anonymous said...

Juniper Ridge now has project manager, that is hired by the city. What happened to MASTER-BLASTER? or MASTER-DEVELOPER? or MASTER-BUILDER? KURATEK? Not a mention?? What about the $2.5M golden paraschute, what in the hell is going on??

*

Sep 26,2007
City of Bend appoints Juniper Ridge project manager
by Bend Weekly News Sources
small font medium font large font

City of Bend City Manager Andy Anderson has hired Ron Garzini as temporary Project Manager for Juniper Ridge. Garzini brings to the City of Bends twenty-five years of experience in public sector management. He has been a senior level official in five local governments, including the City of Bend, where he served as Interim City Manager from December, 2003 to September, 2004 and from October 1998 to October 2001.Garzini has also worked for Federal and State government and on five occasions has served as a City Manager in a traditional council-manager form of local government.

Anonymous said...

Bulletin story this morning makes it sound as if the jobs will stay in Bend.

*

The story means as much as MEDIANS, which don't mean shit.

The story is, 'IF' and I repeat the BIG 'IF', IF Cessna gets Columbia they're saying they may NOT shut the place down.

There are too many 'IFs", first of all this thing is now in bankruptcy, and the folks who are owed debt and the judge will decide who get the sweet-heart deal.

Cessna is simply running a little Bend style PR, in their attempt to grow by acquisition.

There are lots of other players, and the highest and best yield on Columbia for those holding the debt, and RETURN to the FUCKING Malaysian government will be to disassemble and piecemeal the thing out to the highest bidders.

The bankruptcy judge isn't even going to make a decision for a few months.

It's great that Cessna can issue a press release in Kansas that if they get Columbia for their deal, then they'll not move it out. Why the FUCK would Malaysia care?? Something fishy is going on here.

More than likely the City of Bend has promised Columbia ( Cessna ) a too good to be true deal in secret. Trouble is its the folks who have their money tied up, and the folks who are owed money that matter.

Money talks, and bullshit walks. Ergo its NOT likely that Cessna/Columbia will be around as we know it in six months.

Anonymous said...

Garzini has been HIRED to be the MAGIC PR hatchetman for City of Bend to RAM-ROD JR up the collective ass. Tax & Spend.

Garzini is GOOD, and he is committed to be out 24/7 talking in public about how JR will turn all of Bends de-flowered back into virgins.

Again what is MOST interesting is there is always a reference to 'master-developer', but NOBODY ever uses the vile name of KURATEK. Has RASPUTIN finally warn out his welcome in Bend??

Will Garzini pay for his ROI on ramming JR up the collective arse of the bend tax paying public?

*

Garzini back in Bend: Can he advance Juniper Ridge?

Sep 26, 2007 07:44 AM
All options on the table when it comes to 'tweaking' Juniper Ridge, says new 'assistant to city manager' Ron Garzini
All options on the table when it comes to 'tweaking' Juniper Ridge, says new 'assistant to city manager' Ron Garzini

'Nothing is sacred ground' in possible project changes

By Barney Lerten, KTVZ.COM

After a quarter-century of public-sector work around the Northwest, including two stints as Bend's interim city manager, Ron Garzini was back home in Redmond, retired and ... well, bored.

So, he recalled, he called up current Bend City Manager Andy Andrews a couple of months ago, telling him "I was looking for something to do again."

"I wasn't even thinking of Bend - I was thinking wherever, through the network of (city) managers," said Garzini, at 60 a veteran of local, state and federal government, from managing industrial parks from La Pine to Alaska and, most recently, serving as interim city manager in the Portland suburb of West Linn for four months in 2005.

What Anderson ended up doing was asking for Garzini's help with the storm-tossed project known as Juniper Ridge. On Tuesday, the city announced that Garzini had been brought aboard as "temporary project manager" - but Garzini told KTVZ.COM that's not quite right, as the project already has Jerry Mitchell as a manager of the up to 1,500-acre mixed-use project.

Garzini also said consultant doesn't really fit - and indeed, from the flurry of meetings he's had in his first two days on the job, from project critics to planners, the intended developers, ODOT and, of course, city councilors, Garzini is doing more than just consult.

In essence, he says he's been called in as a "special assistant" to Anderson, to see if he can find a way to narrow the seemingly growing gap between the project's supporters and the critics who have signed and submitted petitions, calling it too big a gamble by the city, a closed-door deal that puts taxpayers at risk.

And Garzini plans to get there - or as close as he can get - in about a month, perhaps less.

No small feat for the former City Hall fill-in who was willing to push hard and help make the Southern River Crossing happen, despite strong criticism by some councilors, who also tried to make transit fly (a bit too soon) and was anything but a quiet, placeholder leader during his 1998-2001 and 2003-2004 stints at the helm of city government.

Garzini is saying already, up front, that changes of some sort will be made to Juniper Ridge, to address his and others' concerns - calling it "tweaking" at one point, but acknowledging later that some might consider them "major" changes.

For example, he's listening to those who think the project has grown too large, and saying adjustments are likely, though the specifics, of course, are still to be hammered out.

"This is a very complicated project," Garzini said. "In the beginning, there's always issues. Part of this one is the complexity of the agreement with the master developer. A lot of folks say it's unusual for the city to be a developer-partner."

"It appears to me that a lot of the criticisms are predicated on not enough information, and a feeling like a lot of activity is going on without a lot of input," Garzini said.

Garzini also said he's not been told that any part of the current direction is off-limits to change: "For me, being the blunt, forthright straight shooter I am, that's not a problem."

Instead, he said he was hired in the part-time role by Anderson, who "gave me simple guidance: making sure the city is protected from financial risk ... I'm trying to find ways to be comfortable with where we are."

Not the words, it would seem, of a hired gun brought in to ramrod through an agreed-to deal and bowl over opponents.

One often-voiced criticism is that the city has positioned Juniper Ridge as the lion's share of a planned urban growth boundary expansion, while leaving out other landholders who want to be included.

"The size of the appropriate UGB is something I'm examining," Garzini said, later explaining that it may well be something between the 500 acres already approved and the 1,350-acre maximum available for development.

He's met at lengthy with the council's main negotiators, Jim Clinton and Mark Capell, adding, "I'm not sure any one of them have negotiated this big a deal before."

Garzini said he plans a complete - public - presentation to the council in mid to late October, on how to move to implement the already unanimously approved memorandum of understanding with Juniper Ridge Partners, "preceded by a three-page outline of all the key components."

"I'm looking at everything - nothing is sacred ground," Garzini said. That includes possibly reducing the UGB expansion, reviewing the financial arrangement and the "firewall between the (city's) general fund and the development."

"It's either got to go forward or go away," he said - and the latter is not in the cards, saying the "proposal has a lot of attractive components."

"I think it's doable and can become more popular with more information and some tweaking," Garzini said. "There's no doubt it's going to need some tweaking. A lot of things people have questions about, so (do) I."

Might the cooling real estate market bring a slowdown in the project anyway? "Yes and no," Garzini said. "This is contemplated to be a long-, long-, long-term agreement. ... This agreement has to contemplate a 30-year horizon and make sense."

He pointed to the decade-plus saga of Old Mill District developer Bill Smith, who fought for years to win approval of the zone changes that made the 200-acre riverside mixed-use project happen - and years more turning the "barren" land into what it is today, "a really great asset."

At Juniper Ridge, "we have 500 acres already approved," Garzini said. "How much beyond 500, if any, is an appropriate amount, what is an appropriate mix" is up for discussion - except that he does not buy the idea that all 500 acres should be "pure industrial."

"What people are missing is, pure industrial any more, in today's world, is contrary to most public policy," especially if a university can be sited there, Garzini said.

"I want to bring the city and the community closer together" on an acceptable path for Juniper Ridge, Garzini said, although he added: "You never make any progress unless you're willing to fail."

After a long, busy day of meetings, Garzini said, "I've been joking that I worked in three places twice, but this is the first time I've worked in one place three times."

Whether the third time will be a charm is largely - but surely not completely - in his hands.

Anonymous said...

"I want to bring the city and the community closer together" on an acceptable path for Juniper Ridge, Garzini said, although he added: "You never make any progress unless you're willing to fail."


*

JR is already the biggest FAILURE in Bend history, millions down the drain for nothing. You win Garzini, its a failure, now put a fucking stake through its heart and call your self a winner.

Remember what Kuratek said about good ol-boys??

Anonymous said...

Garzini is the ultimate good ol boy of Bend. Is this Kurateks worst nightmare? Or is this his best day in Bend?

City of Bend's Juniper Ridge Master Developer was recently quoted on his thoughts about our city (BEND) ...

"It's like a town in Mississippi in the '50s with this good old boy network, its going to be difficult to get anything done."

- Ray Kuratek, Managing Partner
Juniper Ridge Partners, LLC

Anonymous said...

"What people are missing is, pure industrial any more, in today's world, is contrary to most public policy," especially if a university can be sited there, Garzini said.

*

There will NEVER be a university there, the State has said there is NO money. Enrollment is down. Tuition costs to much on the ROI on a state university in Oregon is zilch for a career.

Why talk this shit? Nobody has money in this county, there is NO rich uncle stanford, ... Sure 'IF' you had $100M, and if they built a new CAL-TECH @ JR, that would be a great thing, but it will never happen. So why he promise this shit?

A university 'can' be sited anywhere, but that doesn't mean it will happen.

Is this guy Garzini really the BEST PR secret weapon the city of bend has in its war chest???

Anonymous said...

Garzini also said he's not been told that any part of the current direction is off-limits to change: "For me, being the blunt, forthright straight shooter I am, that's not a problem."

*

He's coming down from Redmond. He claims he's a straight let's hope his first round hits the heart of JR, and takes it down for good.

Let's hope he can NULL & VOID the MOU with KURATEK, and thus save the taxpayer $2.5M.

Anonymous said...

GarbleMouthZini is a first class idiot. He is no straight shooter, he is just a crooked old yes-man for the councilors. He sold Bend of to the RE HOs & developers during the 90s and 00s.

A windbag idiot crook is no savior of Bend.

Anonymous said...

You know guys jobs are way way overrated. That is why I worked hard and got rich and quit. So now I can sit back with a beer and read about the local hysteria.

Anonymous said...

GarbleMouthZini is a first class idiot. He is no straight shooter, he is just a crooked old yes-man for the councilors. He sold Bend of to the RE HOs & developers during the 90s and 00s.

A windbag idiot crook is no savior of Bend.

*

I was hoping they would buy MORE DVA with out taxpayer money, hell no, they brougt garbo-zini back from the dead up in Redmond.

That said, where in the fuck is KURATEK?? Not a fucking peep, that's OUR $2.5M that they're giving him, we deserve the secrecy to end.

Anonymous said...

TO: Sally Heatherson
From: Jerome Senior

I just got a call from an old friend in Oregon with regards to Jerome junior. Jerome had told me last month that he was visiting a stud ranch in Sisters, Oregon. He assured me it was a working horse farm.

Today I got a call from Oregon that our jerome is being held as a sex slave. His mother would roll over in her grave if she knew he was working as a stud in Oregon to please middle age white realty women in Oregon.

I never approved of our Jerome seeing jennifer. When she moved out of our house in Atlanta a few months ago I assumed that we had seen the end of her. I had no idea she had gotten a job up in Oregon. Last month jerome had been on a summer vacation when had told me he had gotten a job in Sisters, Oregon.

Today a good friend of mine told me about this site, and that a young black man calling himself jethro was living in bend, oregon. He called me and provided this link.

Mrs. Heatherton you stay away from my boy or the entire Nation of Islam will be crawling up your ass.

sincerely, yours jerome senior

bendbutthead said...

I wanted her to exist, and I wanted to see her in the Thunder Dome against BilboBend. - duncan
*
What would be the point? There are no ideas here. I'm interested in ideas. Sally is interested in the kinds of issues that are discussed on TV by Ophrah.
I think what makes this group sort of interesting, as that generally you, ihtbyb, bem, ... a few others have something to say about bend.

Sally has really nothing to say.

There are lots of very good realtors close to starving in this city, and there are probably a 1,000 that have to move on. Her 'life is good' BS is actually quite irrelevant on all fronts. She pokes fun at those she pretends to represent, yet deny's that there is any pain or suffering in Bend. Such people do not exist.

One of things that I have attempted is that we focus on the truth, and we share that truth ( like the blind men and the elephant ) and together we all develop a big picture.

The sally crap doesn't help anyone. I feel that the IHTBYB blog debate mission statement is quite clear. Understand and analyze the Bend-Bubble, and try to survive, and help as many of those who wish to survive.

The 'sally crap' accomplishes nothing for anyone, other than I have said ALL along, e.g. to create an avenue such that the whole world can laugh their ass off at Bend, Oregon. I repeat this whole INTERNATIONAL story was brought on by our own boss hogg hollern, our little closet nazi that drives through the streets of Bend, in his 100's of controlled subdivisions looking for something out of place.

In summary the realtors that I know in this town, are working their ass off and are seeing the toughest times in their entire careers.

I do not see it as a positive for this group to start ignoring reality at this point in time.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Bulletin story this morning makes it sound as if the jobs will stay in Bend.

That would just be plain weird. But... Mark Hemstreet somehow managed to BK Shiloh Inns, and he still managed to keep ahold of it.

Hell, I'd BK every 7 years if I could slough off my debts and keep all my assets...

Anonymous said...

Sally hit some nerve. people are mailing that blog around to each other. i got it twice. maybe it's a way for admit something was wrong. it's going to be a long winter in bend for the realtors... so maybe she really is a realtor getting something out of her system.

I read lots of pain in her possts. its not life is good at all she's always anger or bothered..

Anonymous said...

Sally hit some nerve. people are mailing that blog around to each other.

*

It's funny, thus I can see why the realtors would be mailing it around. But I don't so how its anger or bothered, it just seems to be a parody like you would see in Animal-House, you know there were the geeks and the perfect nazis, with their 'blond' girlfriends, sally is just one of those nazi stepford wives, predictable, mrs manners. Reminds me very much of my grand mother who was raised in the South, she used talk that way ( for real ).

Anger & Bothered?? Her boy-toy 'bob' is the #1 green builder in Bend, and the money is rolling in, she's too busy to waste time at open-houses, she has her white-trash assistant do all the call backs, ... Coldwell Banker, Sandy Garner fictitious impersonation is my guess, #1 realtor woman in Bend, and somebody is doing a snob-job on robo-realtor. Hell it could also be a Becky Breeze impersonation, there are lots of ALPHA-FEMALE realtors in this town with builder hubby's.


I think everyone is mailing it around, because first of all most people don't live on these blogs, and Bend is a small town.

Bruised ego's, I still say this person appears to be an outsider, I still haven't seen the inside kind of topic material you would see outside of the BULL.

I'm not sure if sally hit a nerve, I think this whole clothes-line thing is a BIG issue in Bend. For a long time Boss Hogg Hollern has been micro-managing these subdivisions, and I really think sally is doing a parody as his #1 supporter.

Given how many realtors are hurting these days, I don't think the laugh thing will last for long, and I don't think sally will keep it up for long.

Timothy said...

It's like most anything. People will love it then they'll hate it.

As for Breeze, anyone want to make any guesses on how many of those Plaza Condos are sold by the end of the year? I mean really sold, according to public records.

It's really hard for me to think that anyone would do it now that's there's finally a feeling of "down."

There are always buyers on the way down, though. She's sold 4 so far. I say 3 more by Dec 31.

Timothy said...

>>I do not see it as a positive for this group to start ignoring reality at this point in time.

I may have been absent during initiation day. What are we trying to do? Is there something in particular about Bend we're trying to fix? Governance, planning, something else? Do we have a plan of attack? Or are we just in the information gather stage?

Personally? I read this blog because I'm trying to get a feel for whether I should stay or go. And if I stay, when I should buy a house.

Is there some greater purpose of which I'm unaware?

Anonymous said...

____________________________


Bend to dole out loans for affordable housing
City Council prepares to approve $600,000 in low-interest loans in the next month
By Peter Sachs / The Bulletin
Published: September 27, 2007 5:00AM PST

The city of Bend is pushing forward on several projects to address a shortage of affordable housing, though it may be months or years before residents see tangible results or cheaper housing.

The city is preparing to award its first round of low-interest affordable housing loans e_SEmD more than $600,000 in total e_SEmD and moving forward with plans to sell off several pieces of property that it doesn’t need anymore for affordable housing.

Jim Long, the city’s affordable housing manager, said the Affordable Housing Committee has recommended that four different projects get shares of the money. And while it won’t be enough to fully fund any of the projects, it is still crucial for getting other state and federal grants, Long said.

“It just makes their application to the state much stronger,” Long said. “And it’s the state that hands out the federal tax credits and the state tax credits.”

Coming tuesday: Public Services A look inside what goes into constructing a prison.
Long said that $275,000 is slated to go to Discovery Park Lodge, a planned $9 million affordable housing project in NorthWest Crossing with about 50 units for seniors.

“That (loan money) is integral because it shows the local match, the local contribution, and it’s going to make the state and feds go, ‘Wow, this is good,’” Long said. Though the local loan is only a small amount of the total cost, Long said, it should go a long way to secure additional money.

The affordable housing committee also plans to award $150,000 to NeighborImpact for its own low-income loans to first-time homebuyers, $145,000 to Habitat for Humanity for construction financing of new affordable housing and $44,000 to help rehabilitate low-income housing at Healy Heights, Long said.

All of the loans must be approved by the Bend City Council and that is likely to happen next month, Long said.

Chuck Tucker, the chairman of the Affordable Housing Committee, said the loans are a significant step, but acknowledged that the city is still lagging far behind in meeting the demand for affordable housing.

“I would be the first one to jump on the bandwagon and say this has taken too long — a long time,” Tucker said.

But he hoped the pot of money the city collects from an affordable housing fee, which in turn supplies these loans, will continue to grow. While the loans carry interest rates of only 1 or 2 percent, he said, once developers and home buyers pay them back, they will be handed out again as new loans.

“Over a couple of years I see that growing to over a million and hopefully it would get up to several million,” Tucker said.

The city is also getting ready to sell off several small parcels of land that it owns near some intersections. The city purchased the land for right-of-way when the intersections were upgraded but ended up not needing all of it. Now, the city hopes that affordable homes will be built on those pieces of land.

“I have to figure out how to calculate what that price is, what the price we paid for the remaining land would be,” city Real Estate Manager Eric Grindy said.

The money to buy the five parcels in the first place came out of money collected from system development charges, which are fees that builders pay to offset how much their projects will use roads and utilities. Any money from the upcoming land sales would go back into those SDC coffers. Developers would be required to build affordable housing like homes or duplexes on the parcels.

The lots are scattered across the city. Two face the roundabout at Bear Creek Road and Northeast 15th Street. Another larger one is on the northwest corner of Northeast Penn Avenue and Northeast Eighth Avenue, a remnant of a project several years ago to connect Olney and Penn. The fourth is adjacent to the roundabout at Franklin Avenue and Northeast Eighth Street and the fifth property is alongside the roundabout at Northwest Newport Avenue and Northwest 14th Street.

Grindy plans to come back to the Bend City Council with more details next month or in November. The city would solicit ideas from developers on what they would build on each of the lots, then award the sales based on the results of that process, which could take several months.

Grindy figures that the five lots could fit a total of nine housing units. While he and others had hoped to change the zoning on those lots to allow a greater number of housing units, he said it is unlikely the city’s planning department would allow those changes.

Bend’s own efforts are getting some attention at the federal level, too.

Long said last week, he received an award and a plaque from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, recognizing the city’s efforts to cut through regulatory red tape when it comes to affordable housing.

The award made particular reference to part of the city’s mobile home park ordinance, which lets park owners redevelop the land to higher densities than would otherwise be allowed as long as some of the new units are affordable.

Long said while no one has yet taken the city up on that incentive, two companies have hired consultants and designers and are looking seriously into projects.

“There are not enough nonprofits in the affordable housing sector to make a difference, given the size of the problem we have here in Central Oregon,” Tucker said. “We need to get developers on board.”

Timothy said...

I don't get it. How does that not prop up prices? Doesn't it do the opposite of making housing affordable?

Anonymous said...

Too fucking FUNNY I have been predicting this for six months GUYS. Here is what is going on MUNI-CDO's are still HOT, while RE-CDO's are COLD. Thus the city can take out MUNI-CDO's put us into a ton of debt and bail out their favorite realtor. Let's see there must be 100's of little less than $600k affordable units inside of the plaza. I told IHTBYB for months that the city would BAIL OUT THE BEAUTIFUL.

ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE IN BEND, and INSANE.
City Council prepares to approve $600,000 in low-interest loans in the next month
By Peter Sachs / The Bulletin
Published: September 27, 2007 5:00AM PST

Anonymous said...

Do we have a plan of attack? Or are we just in the information gather stage?

*

Get information. Share information. Try to get a feel for what the fuck is going on in this two bit con artist town.

Mission Statement - To Debate the Bend Economic Bubble.

Regarding to TT's desire to buy a fucking home, just DO-IT. Don't wait for the green light, it will NEVER fucking come. There are lots of sellers today down -50%, if you wait for -90% you'll never BUY, which leads me to think you don't want to buy, are full of shit, and or just fooling yourself like most people.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Bend to dole out loans for affordable housing
City Council prepares to approve $600,000 in low-interest loans in the next month


I wonder how long it'll take before Bend City Council renegs, and turns this project from an "affordability" project, to a straight developer handout.

Anonymous said...

I HANG OUT ON THIS BLOG TO BUY A HOUSE.

*

There are many of us that have too many houses, and then there are some that own no houses.

Speaking as someone that owns too many houses, I would say that its a racket, that is over marketed. There is NO 'pride' of ownership or special right as suggested by darta-fart. I have always seen home-owner ship as the right to pay property-tax. That's it end of story.

We have said over and over here, if your economically minded, then fucking hell RENT, because that is the safest place to put your money during the past few years, and the next few years. Bend RE prices will have to FALL a whole lot not to lose money.

If YOU must buy, if you have to buy, if you feel your a fucking loser by renting a home. Then JUST FUCKING DO IT, then again if you don't have 20% down, and perfect credit then don't lie to yourself or others.

If you want to become a RE tycoon, then read the blogs I wrote back in april-07, called HOW TO GET RICH IN BEND RE.

Home ownership when you buy for the long haul at an extremely low price ( $15k ) in bend for a home. Is a forced investment program for people without discipline. Problem is today prices would have to fall below $100K to truly make money in the long term when you consider taxes.

Prices are More than likely NOT going to fall below $100k, more than likely they fall to $160k. Today you can buy a fucking home in Bend for $200k, that's close enough to stabilization.

If you want to buy a home fucking do it and quit talking about doing it.

Anonymous said...

DID YOU KNOW THESE FACTS ABOUT
JUNIPER RIDGE?




1. Juniper Ridge will accommodate over 18,000 new jobs for Bend.

2. At build-out, Juniper Ridge will generate every year:

* A local economic impact of over $1.5 Billion
* Over $50 million in annual tax revenues to the City, County and State
* $5 million to schools, $3 million to police and fire, $1.5 million to parks, $600,000 to libraries, and over $3 million to the General Fund

3. Compared to the earlier all-industrial plan, the mixed-use Juniper Ridge master plan will have nearly twice the annual economic impact ($1.5 Billion compared to $800 million), and be completed in one third the time (30-35 years versus 80-90 years).

4. Of the estimated 2,550 vacant acres needed for housing and related uses in the proposed UGB expansion, only 350 acres would be at Juniper Ridge.

5. Juniper Ridge will generate over $50 million in fees (called System Development Charges, or SDCs) for local road improvements, sewer upgrades, and other City projects all outside of Juniper Ridge.

6. Juniper Ridge has been planned by Cooper Robertson & Partners, the nationally-recognized leader in new urbanist, traditional neighborhood development.

7. The design firms for Juniper Ridge have also successfully planned and implemented master plans for Harvard, Yale, Caltech, MIT, and Stanford, among many other universities.

8. All buildings, parks and infrastructure at Juniper Ridge will incorporate best practices in sustainable design.

9. The City expects its investment in Juniper Ridge to be repaid many times over by excess land sale revenues.

10. Juniper Ridge will be the home of the new Central Oregon Performing Arts Center, a 2,000-seat performance hall hosting music, dance, theater, lectures and other signature cultural events.

11. The project and the Developer, not the City, are guaranteeing a 20% return to the Investor. The General Fund is not at risk.

12. The majority financial partner for the $30 million is AIG, the world's largest insurance company. AIG has investments throughout the world and is a major investor in sustainable technology and alternative energy.

13. The Boyd Acres Neighborhood Association strongly supports the development direction of Juniper Ridge. As the adjoining neighborhood, they would have the most to gain or lose from its development. See BANA's letter on the City's web site.

14. Juniper Ridge will provide a mix of housing types for all income levels and ages.

15. The money generated from Juniper Ridge will help fund solutions for numerous City and County improvements, including new roads and utility connections.

16. After advertising nationally seeking a master developer, the City Council chose Juniper Ridge Partners unanimously over two other qualified candidates.

17. Other than Juniper Ridge Partners, no local development companies made a proposal to develop Juniper Ridge.

18. Juniper Ridge Partners and their consultants have met with the school districts, park district, ODOT, the Central Oregon Irrigation District, the Chamber of Commerce, Central Oregon Builders Association, neighborhood groups, educators, the public library, affordable housing groups, and the performing arts committee among many other groups to get their input and advice.

19. Juniper Ridge Partners has agreed to work exclusively on Juniper Ridge, so they will not have any conflicts of interests in other projects.

20. The principals of Juniper Ridge Partners have over 50 years' combined experience in residential and commercial real estate, specializing in mixed-use, new urbanist, award winning development. Ray Kuratek has lived full time in Bend area since 2001, and first developed in Oregon in 1983

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

City Council prepares to approve $600,000 in low-interest loans in the next month

While the loans carry interest rates of only 1 or 2 percent, he said, once developers and home buyers pay them back...


Developer handout.

I'll guess the actually INTEREST RATE will be closer to -100%, when the developer "make their plea" for the Big Honeypot of Fed money, either fail or succeed (doesn't really matter), plead poverty to Bend City Council who will INSTANTLY forgive the loan.

Folks, $600K won't even buy 2 median priced homes in this place. The "Affordability Issue" in Bend really is unsolvable, unless thousands & thousands of acres are made buildable, and BILLIONS are allocated to building. Even this process would be rife with graft. It's undoable.

Anonymous said...

City Council prepares to approve $600,000 in low-interest loans in the next month

I wonder how long it'll take before Bend City Council renegs, and turns this project from an "affordability" project, to a straight developer handout.

*

The magic word here is 'affordable', but to whom? Bend doesn't want red-necks or trailer-trash. So who are these poor?

This is only a make money, mark work project for beautiful builders, developers of Bend.

Besides given that Wall Street will fund MUNI-CDO's, why shouldn't the city-council go for the max, and get this city into the maximum debt possible?? They have fucked up everything else, what have they to lose?

It's like dubya's war, at this point we might as well send all american boyz to the slaughterhouse, whats there to lose?

Complete group insanity, welcome to Bend.

Anonymous said...

Developer handout.

*

Yes, but developers, own control, and RUN this city from Brooks ( boss hogg hollern ) on down.

The good parasitic electorate fairly voted for developers to control Bend.

If our good leaders see a chance to bail themselves out with taxpayer debt why shouldn't they? Isn't this the American way? Why in the hell did they run for office?

Run the city into the ground, get stuff cheap, make money on the up and down, use other peoples money. YOU CANNOT LOSE PLAYING THIS GAME.

Control the two, two bit WHORE papers in TOWN aka SORE & BULL, and nada will ever care.

Throw in a sally ( courtesy of Brooks ), and you have your own Oprah and everyone is perpetually entertained.

Dysfunctional? But who cares, the chosen are making money. Either way the fucked will always be fucked, this is the human situation.

Anonymous said...

ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE IN BEND, and INSANE.
City Council prepares to approve $600,000 in low-interest loans in the next month

*

This is just the beginning, they're testing the water, if this works there will be a ton of this shit.

I have always said that the city of bend will go into the MTG biz, its only logical.

The only biz of BEND is to sell RE, and now that MTG is shut-down, its only logical that BEND become its own MTG broker.

Nobody will care, the 'sallys' of the world will say "marvelous, about time", ...

Timothy said...

>>Regarding to TT's desire to buy a fucking home, just DO-IT. Don't wait for the green light, it will NEVER fucking come. There are lots of sellers today down -50%, if you wait for -90% you'll never BUY, which leads me to think you don't want to buy, are full of shit, and or just fooling yourself like most people.

I'm not looking for any certain percentage. I just want a 2003 price in one of the neighborhoods my kids go to school in. We are NOT there. Still mostly $100k off. I suppose I could start low-balling by 100k, but I think next year they'll all be lower. If I was not hamstrung by grade school, I'm sure I could find a place I want now.

I'm not bullshitting at all. I have the down payment and my parents would double it I want the help. I just think I'll do better next year. More desperation.

Timothy said...

I saw a story in the press this morning about how cops and nurses can afford houses again finally in south Florida. That's affordable housing. It comes when the speculators get creamed.

Subsidies don't create affordable housing. Severe price drops do.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

BILLIONS are allocated to building. Even this process would be rife with graft.

This is a sort of "socialized" solution, which is abhorrent & unworkable.

The Real Solution is:

1) Remove artificial shortages -- mainly land shortages
2) Let builders build: and they will till it's no longer marginally profitable, and let people buy till there is no marginal benefit

Free Markets are the solution. Builders ARE still building here, cuz it is actually STILL PROFITABLE. Seems unbelievable, but it's true. Despite the evaporation of volume, high selling prices (or the illusion thereof) are keeping these guys building. My guess is they'll keep building until a bit beyond marginal breakeven (they have small exit costs that induce them to build a few losers), which I see down around the national median ($225K... Today). I think the national median will possibly get cracked down to $200K... which is probably where Bend is headed.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I just want a 2003 price in one of the neighborhoods my kids go to school in. We are NOT there. Still mostly $100k off. I suppose I could start low-balling by 100k, but I think next year they'll all be lower.

No kidding dude. I'd do the exact same thing. Walk up to some Realtors huddled around a fire on Bluff Dr this Feb, and flash a wad of hundreds. Those poor bastards will start rubbing your feet, form a human La-Z-Boy recliner, put your feet up and start barking out terms.

And they will take it. They'll realize the seller is crap... you're a cash buyer & cock of the walk.

Can I say that?

Anonymous said...

The whole problem is the concept of "easy money". Easy come easy go. I have a good deal of money, but I also have the credentials to get a job with a six figure salary. If you don't have the skills to make money, in my opinion you are always at risk. Money could become worthless, but your skills don't.

Anonymous said...

Dont trust that city council, they are up to no good with tax payers money. Affortable houseing is not of the interest to the city I can tell you that just by having lived there. Their only interest is linning their pockets and the pockets of their buddies. Recall each and everyone of them. Well on the brighter side if they did go through with it, the city fathers would sure know where all the low life working class live, think about it, all the worker bees in one or two hives.

Timothy said...

>>Money could become worthless, but your skills don't.

I grew up watching my poor Dad (a white collar middle manager) be the hatchet guy to lay off skilled people until there were only 4 people and mainframe computer working for him. From about 1975 to 1995. Drip, drip, drip. They were all skilled.

You'd be surprised how fast skills can become worthless.

Anonymous said...

Well, one does have to have a skill that's in some demand and can't be easily done for pennies in China.

Timothy said...

>>Well, one does have to have a skill that's in some demand and can't be easily done for pennies in China.

Not sure what that would be. I've seen everything from programming to artwork go to India, Ireland, China, etc.

Maybe being a nurse is safe.

I don't buy that skills make you safe. I would say that your ability to pick up new skills can make you much safer.

Anonymous said...

Subsidies don't create affordable housing. Severe price drops do.

*

This is why bend city council must rush if there going to put feed in the pig trough, if there no quick soon all homes in bend will be affordable.

Anonymous said...

I suppose I could start low-balling by 100k, but I think next year they'll all be lower.

*

Thats a god-damn lazy excuse. There are tons of realtors out there that would be glad to write your low ball offer.

Don't fucking worry about peoples feelings they want to sell the fucking house.

Just fucking do it, quit talking about it.

Anonymous said...

The Real Solution is:

1) Remove artificial shortages -- mainly land shortages
2) Let builders build: and they will till it's no longer marginally profitable, and let people buy till there is no marginal benefit

*

We did just have that, we had supply side building, now there is a glut. Sure if a new boy builds a house cheap enough it will sell.

Whats going to happen now is a race to build the cheapest shit ever seen.

If a builder can build in Bend for $160k, his buyer can get a loan, and everybody is happy, trouble is that house will be made of cardboard.

Anonymous said...

Skills are only useful if you have a functional economy and velocity of money is above zero.

Bend is headed into a recession, then all your skills will be worth NADA.

Most like gold and bullets will be what are valuable, and even gold has to be in $10 increments, as nobody will be able to make change for Krugerrand. Oh, yes if you have clean fuel that will have value.

Timothy said...

>>Just fucking do it, quit talking about it.

Just makes no sense to me. I think the deals will be better next year. Whatever I can get lowballing now, why won't I have a better selection next year?

What's the hurry? If inventory starts tightening up (yoy), I can make my move. Until then it's a bad tradeoff, opportunity-cost wise.

Are you a Realtor? Or a seller?

Anonymous said...

i luv this site,

me a rentar, me want boy a home, tu me a home is not horse bit a a home

i hav bean redin this site fer monts bit dis is firs time me post.

i will lik advice on win to buy me home in your bend

i dont knwo no credat, an me hav no dwn paymint, but me hav a good hart

can you peeze help me boy me home in bend?

Anonymous said...

Are you a Realtor? Or a seller?

---

Just a person tired of this same old dialogue here for over six months.

IHTBYB has written a 1,000 fucking that renting is economically smart and buying is stupid. Sure if you had bought homes in the 70's like a few of us for $15k, then I wouldn't anytime soon run out and rent.

You say you want 2003 prices, but they're out there today, folks that MUST sell that have equity will drop their price.

If you wait until the fucking market hits bottom, what your going to find is that NOBODY is going to loan you money, right now the market is cold next year it will be frozen.

Also the subject of foreclosures, there will be a shit load of foreclosures in Bend, but they'll all be ran down to shit, by people that don't care. You don't want to buy a foreclosure, unless your a handy man, and you can get it for nothing, but then you MUST pay all cash, and more than likely you don't have +150K cash.

It simply doesn't make any sense to buy, unless you have a hard-on for RE ownership, and that is a personal problem, not a rational problem.

If you MUST buy a home, don't wait until the MTG freezes, because that's whats going to happen, once the shit really gets bad, nobody is going to loan you money.

What I'm telling you is right now you can get people to go as low as they can, given there are tons of people in Bend that paid $15k for their home and would be tickled pink to get $150k.

It costs YOU NOTHING to write low-ball offers 24-7,

Anybody that says they want to buy a house, an isn't on the fucking ball, is full of fucking shit.

Realtor/Builder said...

LAST 24 hours in Bend.....

New Listings 48
Back on Market 6
Price Increases 0
Price Reductions 40
Contingents 0
Pendings 2
Solds 4
Expireds 6
Inactives 12

Anonymous said...

Anybody that says they want to buy a house, an isn't on the fucking ball, is full of fucking shit.

*

Does that mean that 90% of the folks here are full of shit?

Yes

Anonymous said...

The last two blogs on this site have discussed how Bend is an over-marketed two bit con artist hustlers town.

The most over-marketed myth in Bend is that somehow home-ownership makes you a better person. Home-Ownership makes a common loser into a hero, ...

Truth is if your a middle age or 30+, and have never bought a home, your probably a loser, and always will be.

Look at all the people that have bought homes in Bend during the last five years, all will become foreclosures, or at least 80%.

When this bubble is over we're going to see a new level of home ownership below 60% something not seen for generations.

The whole point of these blogs is to educate, and it really seems that the majority here are getting dumber. This is asserted by the redundant stupid questions.

Lastly, the worship of 'Sally' is a classic case of "Married with Children" TV watchers, people love to listen and/or read about more fucked up than themselves. Bend is fucked, the people are fucked, and they're generally losers.

There are little to NO rich in Bend, with the exception of our own closet Nazi Boss Hogg Hollern.

To all the middle age white trash 'renters' on this site, I say buying a house will not make you a better person. Buying a house in Bend will just lock you into the implosion.

If you really want to buy a house in Bend, don't wait until the MTG/BANKS have shut it down. That's why prices collapse, there are still a few stupid fucking banks loaning on Bend RE, get their while you can.

In summary, buying a home in Bend is a sucker game. If you feel that you want to get fucked then DO-IT.

Timothy said...

>>Just a person tired of this same old dialogue here for over six months.

I'm supposed to buy a house now because you're bored of the conversation.

I'd love to help you out.

If prices come down enough and no one is lending, I'll buy cash. I just don't want to buy something that's going DOWN. I don't know why that's hard to understand.

If I had a house now, I'd be trying to sell it. I sold a year and a half ago. Why would I buy now when everything's going down?

Timothy said...

>>What I'm telling you is right now you can get people to go as low as they can, given there are tons of people in Bend that paid $15k for their home and would be tickled pink to get $150k.

I'd like 4 bedrooms in High Lakes. I just flat out don't believe anyone would take $150k. Are you SERIOUS?

As long as I can rent for less than half the mortgage, I'll do that.

No hurry for ME, just because you're tired of hearing about it.

Timothy said...

>>What I'm telling you is right now you can get people to go as low as they can,

There are still people trying to make money on their houses. I've seen frustration, but not capitulation.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

We did just have that, we had supply side building, now there is a glut. Sure if a new boy builds a house cheap enough it will sell.
Whats going to happen now is a race to build the cheapest shit ever seen.
If a builder can build in Bend for $160k, his buyer can get a loan, and everybody is happy, trouble is that house will be made of cardboard.


I agree, there is a glut, and there will probably continue to be a glut until the marginal cost to build is slightly below what people will pay. I think prices will actually start heading up when there is an actual shortage of building capacity. That won't happen for quite a few years. There were Gold Bugs for well over 20 years after the 1980 Gold bubble burst. I think you'll see builders really throw in the towel at $190-200K. We'll see a bottom when there is No Reason to ever own a home in Bend ever again.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


I'm supposed to buy a house now because you're bored of the conversation.


Yeah, I'm not quite sure why *waiting* to buy a home here is a punishable offense. Even BendBust is naming his buy price ($120K at Drake Park, 4X income).

What else is there to do but WAIT? I guess we could all leave... That's probably what I'll end up doing, I don't think I could hold out while this place goes into a brutal local depression. Right when it's the best time to buy, I probably either will not have the money, or won't be lent the money. Prices WILL NOT skate to $190K medians on a "ceterus paribus" ferris wheel of Good Times. Times will MAKE $190K medians "appropriate". Bend will be a most UN-TRENDY economic shithole that people elsewhere will actually make fun of as a FAD that a couple thousand morons actually bought into at the Dead Top.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

There are still people trying to make money on their houses. I've seen frustration, but not capitulation.

I've always done best with stocks that I mentally just walk away from. For years. The time frame on this thing is going to make Daily Monitoring kind of nutty. It'll be years... and years. Just monotonous declines, with the occasional Up Month or two. Look at Case-Shiller data for LA in the 90's. Even after things have hit dead bottom, you'll have YEARS to bottom pick. YEARS! Once it bottoms, you probably still do better in money funds for a few years. The absolute price bottom will probably not coincide with the Economic Bottom; the price at which you maximize profits by switching your money into a house. The price bottom will probably be followed by a few years of returns just barely above 0%.

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