Monday, October 1, 2007

How To Make $100 Million A Year In Bend, Oregon

Well Damn, that didn't take long. I hung out the Bend-to-Columbia Air post just a day after it was announced that Textron was "buying" Columbia. Didn't sound right to me. Sounded like an awful big rush. Sounded like Columbia needed the money yesterday.

They started to make it sound like a nice, big Strategic Acquisition... good for Columbia, good for Bend, good all the way around. Yup. Did Not Smell Right To Paul-doh. I wrote in the comments on Sunday:

Although it appears Columbia accepted some sort of bid on Friday, I still wonder if running 'er thru a BK won't still happen. Remember, the founder is still suing for $1MM+ back pay. If I was Cessna, I'd have them go BK, and wipe out the liabilities, lawsuits and all.

Next Day, The Big BK! I'm telling you folks, when something doesn't Smell Right, it probably isn't. Columbia hasn't smelled right for many moons. What kind of company shuts down when part suppliers are late? A company With No Money, that's what kind.

Now, we're starting to hear "All Is Well" at Columbia. They'll stay in Bend, everything will be just fine. Really? Because Chap 11 typically means carve up the carcass, and selling the bits at a garage sale. Textron/Cessna, if they have Any Sense At All, will simply bid on the bits it needs, and cart them off to Wichita. The bits it does not need, will go to others... hell, I might stop by and pick up some picture frames and a chair.

Point is, HOW will Columbia be run once it is sold off bit by bit? Cessna Will Not buy Columbia Outright, No Way. It'll be an auction. Anything you hear to the contrary is an attempt to deceive plane buyers to buy anyway, and to keep employees, who have been spanked by this company so many times their asses are raw, to stay on.

Believe NONE OF IT. Columbia is dead and gone, unfortunately.

Speaking of things going down the shitter, BEM recently left this comment (which is NOT the thing going down the shitter, by the way...):

I would never mess with perfection, Paul, but I think sometime you should do a "bust-o-meter" on Central Oregon grand schemes falling victim to the RE bust

I think it's safe to say that I was never really a Big Fan of the concept of The Shire. Hell, I love LOTR more than anyone, probably the best movies of all time. But a Good Movie Does Not A Subdivision Make. This is just a Bad Idea, and that's putting it mildly. It's a TERRIBLE IDEA.

And finally, the developers have thrown in the towel on this White Elephant. From the COR website:

Come home to The Shire, a serenely lovely community with streams, waterfalls, ponds, wildflowers, paths and amphitheater, all designed to convey a sense of peace and belonging. Lot includes plans for 3BR/3.5 BA 2374 sq ft energy efficient Pheasant Cottage with ground floor master suite & 2 junior suites, vaulted great room and terrace views. Or design your own home and have our builder or yours construct it.

"Design your own home"... folks that means The Hobbits attempting to enforce the CC&R's have succumbed to The One Ring. This means Hobbit Hole here, craftsman there, contemporary Brady Bunch homes everywhere! They have unfortunately already built 3-4 Hobbiton dwellings, and unless they are burned by ring wraiths, they will be intermingled with whatever home design lot buyers are willing to put there.

Paul-doh smells a bargain. Cuz nothing smacks down the resale of a hobbit hole more than being a standout among craftsmans. Woof, those spec Shire huts will be hell to unload now. The Shire has just gone from the frying pan into the fire. Those Shire shacks will be like geodesic domes.... death.

The Shire was conceptualized by a local "think-tank", The Hatchery. Here's a short summary by these smug bastards:

The Hatchery team is composed of extremely bright and talented professionals with senior executive level experience in Sales, Marketing, Business Development, Strategic Planning, Public Relations, Operations, Engineering leadership, Manufacturing and Finance.

Yeah, the people who brought us The Shire ARE extremely bright and talented. They're so bright, they Bought In, and located Their World Headquarters at The Shire! Now THAT'S smart!

Just so I'm clear: These guys and gals probably are pretty smart. But they succumbed to a delusion that blinded hundreds if not thousands around here:

1) Real Estate prices are going up
2) I own Real Estate
3) I am a genius
4) Every idea I will ever have is a great idea!
5) I have an idea for a Grandiose Real Estate development

OK folks, we're all sort of collectively average, with ideas no better or worse than a few years back. But the RE bubble has convinced many, MANY people to build some of the nuttiest stuff ever conceived. The Shire? Maybe in Ireland, or England, or somewhere like that.

CENTRAL OREGON IS HIGH DESERT

The Shire is a blatant example of a concept doomed to failure from Minute 1. There are other more subtle losers, but they are equally doomed to Total And Utter Failure. Here is a short list:

1) The Plaza, a "non-age restricted" condo: DOOMED. The Plaza is totally doomed.

2) Mercato: DOOMED. Mercato will almost certainly not get funded, and if it does, it'll not lease to near capacity in my lifetime.

3) Redmond Waterpark: DOOMED. Were we 5X as big, maybe. But no way will this work, even if it's domed. People DO NOT like to go swimming in the dead of Winter.

4) The Whole Tuscan Craze: DOOMED. The only possible survivor is Ranch at the Canyons. "Tuscan" is being slapped on every possible structure, including mobile homes, spider holes, and apartment buildings.

I went from being pretty sympathetic to Becky Breezes' plight with the hideous Plaza, but no more. First, she has actually RAISED prices on several of these units, without a single reduction. If The Plaza were not Becky's own development, she'd have whacked the sellers expectations & asking price to nothing.

Second, I posted this over on BendBB:

Just found this:

http://tinyurl.com/2w9vmy

Located at Upper Terrace
1,600 SQUARE FEET $1,095,000

Unit 408, The Plaza. 4th floor penthouse w/unobstructed Cascade Mtn views, 1,600 sq. ft.., Great Room floor plan for spaciousness, 2 Master Suites w/full bathrooms, tile showers/glass doors, vaulted ceilings in Great Room, kitchen island, slab granite counters, wood/tile/carpet flooring, private balcony, A/C, stainless steel GE Monogram appliances, fully wired for audio/video, 2 underground parking spaces w/storage unit.

For more information:
Terry Dietz
America At Home
P.O. Box 801
Office Phone: 541-433-2400
tdietz@worldstar.com


First, this listing AIN'T Becky Breeze, who I believe is listing new units EXCLUSIVELY. This is listed on Page 2 of BendBB's Sept New Listings & Price Changes entry. PLUS, THIS badboy is a top floor PENTHOUSE unit, that if I recall, Breeze stated she had sold in Christmas:

A few blocks away, The Plaza is expected to have models ready to show next month, Breeze said. So far, 14 of the building's 42 units are under contract. Prices average around $650,000 to $700,000 for units in the all-residential building, but the most expensive unit so far - a top-floor penthouse with views of the river, The Shops at The Old Mill District and the Cascades, went under contract for $1.999 million at Christmas.

http://tinyurl.com/35uq8p

You tell me, but this looks like a Plaza resale at a HUGE LOSS.


This is the first "resale" at The Plaza, and if Breeze's claim of near $2,000,000 sale prices for penthouse units are true, it'd be a Huge LOSS, over $900K. It actually looks like ONLY 4 UNITS HAVE SOLD so far in The Plaza (Breeze claims 25% have sold), at least that's all that's in the county clerks records. There may be more. But Unit 408, the only possible "penthouse" unit, sold for about $820K, not $2 million. And what's better, the freak who bought it is TRYING TO FLIP IT FOR A $280K profit in only 2 months! Classic!

There you have it: Breeze is a liar, she a stubborn obstinate seller trying to market a horribly flawed concept, and those she has actually sold to, are out of their minds!

POP QUIZ!

Which one of these guys apparently invested $200,000,000 in a Bend aircraft maker this week?

1) Peter Tork of "The Monkees"
2) Rip Taylor
3) Liberace
4) Indian Billionaire, Vijay "Jazzy Jeff And The Fresh Prince" Mallya

I know, it's hard to figure cuz each has One Sweet Ass Fuckin' Hair Doo! I mean, WTF?

Did anyone else see that pic in The Bulletin, and wonder what the hell is up with that dudes hair? I mean, DAMN.

ATTENTION INDIAN DUDE: That sweet-ass tight fro may have landed the ladies in 1973, but that thing is just weird!

Anyway, this is YET ANOTHER STORY THAT DOESN'T PASS THE SMELL TEST. I wrote in the comments:

This whole thing SMELLS BAD. $200MM (if true), values Epic at $400MM. WHAT! No way. With 140 employees, that is almost $2.9MM/employee. No freakin' way is that real.

Boeing market cap is $82.52BB
Employees: 153,000
Value/Employee: $540,000

Is this Indian Dude INSANE? He's valuing a po-dunk little maker of kit planes out in the desert at more than 5X the per employee value of BOEING?

Man, if this Rick Schrameck guy actually convinced this nut to pay $200MM for 50%, he is One Hell Of A Shyster. Valuing Epic at well over 5X the relative value of Boeing on an employee basis is straight up INSANE.

That Rick Schrameck dude has pulled off the Bend Enterprise Investment Marketing Boondoggle Of A Lifetime. He got rocks. Bangin' a friend of his for $200MM, for only HALF of Epic, a podunk nut'n out in the desert. That's one thing. But he did it while RIGHT NEXT DOOR, there is a much larger competitor GOING BANKRUPT! Holy Shit! That is just brutal!

Seriously, it is stuff like this that reaffirms my faith in The Impossible. If this is true, which I seriously doubt, this guy has pulled off a dot-com era boondoggle the likes of which this town will never see again. Good job Rick!

And the guy is INDIAN. If Glengarry Glen Ross (The Greatest Salesperson Movie AND Real Estate Movie EVER MADE) has taught us anything, it's that selling to Indians is gat damn impossible:

Williamson: [handing Roma lead cards] I'm giving you three leads...
Ricky Roma: Three? No, I count two.
Williamson: There's three leads there.
Ricky Roma: "Patel"? Fuck you. Fucking Shiva handed this guy a million dollars, told him "Sign the deal!" he wouldn't sign. And the god Vishnu too, into the bargain. Fuck you, John! You know your business, I know mine. Your business is being an asshole. I find out whose fucking cousin you are, I'm going to go to him and figure out a way to have your ass - fuck you!
[throws the cards at Williamson]
Ricky Roma: I'm waiting for the new leads.


I'm telling you RE types right now, watching Glengarry Glen Ross ought to be de rigeur in Monday morning RE meetings! It's awesome!

Blake: You see this watch? You see this watch?
Dave Moss: Yeah.
Blake: That watch costs more than you car. I made $970,000 last year. How much you make? You see pal, that's who I am, and you're nothing. Nice guy? I don't give a shit. Good father? Fuck you! Go home and play with your kids. You wanna work here - close! You think this is abuse? You think this is abuse, you cocksucker? You can't take this, how can you take the abuse you get on a sit? You don't like it, leave.

Blake: And to answer you question, pal, why am I here? I came here because Mitch and Murray asked me to. They asked me for a favor. I said the real favor, follow my advice and fire your fucking ass because a loser is a loser.

Blake: We're adding a little something to this month's sales contest. As you all know, first prize is a Cadillac Eldorado. Anybody want to see second prize?
[Holds up prize]
Blake: Second prize is a set of steak knives. Third prize is you're fired.

Ricky Roma: You ever take a dump made you feel like you'd just slept for twelve hours?

Oh God... every line in that movie is just a classic. I actually know an extremely successful salesperson who watches this movie 2-3/month.

Anyway, this should bring us full circle to How To Make $100 Million A Year In Bend, Oregon. Rick Schrameck has already done the legwork, and has proven the Concept.

1) Start UNPROFITABLE business
2) Fly to Bangkok for Freaky Sex Junket
3) Approach Indias Answer To Liberace
4) Ask for 10X what the company is worth
5) Fire up the Automatic Cash Spanker
6) Bail out with Golden "Shower" Parachute 2-3 years later

It is AMAZING how there are people who can ask, and somehow receive, HUGE sums of money around here for some of the lamest-ass projects EVER. Becky Breeze and Lafky come to mind. Granted, I went to Epic Airs website, and they got some Sweet Rides, and had I the means, I would possibly consider buying one. But is Epic really worth $400 million, or even close? My God, this is another Malaysian Mambo, where some Far East Elvis Impersonator/Government gets whacked for not just millions... BUT HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS!

Rick Schrameck, I salute you. If you have in fact secured $200 million from an Indian Dude wearing Liberaces prized toupee, then you my friend, are KING OF THE WORLD.

247 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 247   Newer›   Newest»
IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

In todays Help Wanted:

Aerospace Manufacturing We are hiring for the following positions: Assemblers •Knowledge of shop equip./ hand tools •Follow detailed written instruction Laminators •Lay-up pre-preg material, must work around resins •Related skills: sewing, hand/craft work QA Inspector •Exp. first article/in-process, receiving/final •Manufacturing exp. Trimmers •Exp. band/table saw/ router/power hand tools We are a drug-free workplace,pre-employment drug screen required. We offer paid medical/dental/ holidays & matching 401K. Send resume to Precision Aerospace 1516 Fryar Ave. Sumner, WA 98390

Vultures already circling!

Anonymous said...

Brooks boss hogg hollern is going to let the peee-on's vote for a clothes-line.

Ahh the freedom in america

**

Awbrey Butte residents may vote on clotheslines
By David Fisher / The Bulletin
Published: September 29. 2007 5:00AM PST

Bend’s Brooks Resources Corp. likes to pride itself on its green building standards.

It makes every builder that constructs a home in its newest subdivisions build to energy-saving Earth Advantage standards.

It tries to design neighborhoods where people live close enough to their jobs to walk or bike to work.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

This whole Epic Aircraft investment makes me wonder...

If you happened to run a small aircraft maker and you wanted to Get Big in a hurry, the process & means to do so just got a whole lot less expensive this past week. There's about to be a huge aircraft makers garage sale, a fact probably known to Epic weeks ago, and maybe Schmareck approached his rich Indian buddy with an investment proposition about scooping up assets on the cheap... maybe?

In that case, maybe Columbia is salvagable, and could have a chance to remain in Bend... just under a different name.

There's something going on under the hood with that $200MM investment. NO WAY is that "real". It may well mean Good News for the area, and that's great, but something about it has not been publicly disclosed. Smells all wrong, so far.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Plus this Epic Aircraft thing just stinks of Kool-Aid. It's being portrayed as an investor pouring $200MM into Epic to get a 50% equity stake. If that is the sum total financial truth, I'll eat my own head. NO WAY is that true, or even close.

Why is it that EVERY SINGLE BEND COMPANY has to spin the truth, with The Bulletin a willing accomplice?

Is Epic being used as an acquisition tool for this Indian dude? If so, Tell Us! We Can Take It! Is the investment subterfuge for some other purpose? Why not just come out with it? Why does EVERY SINGLE STORY have to be absolutely packed with lies and half-truths? WHY?

Anonymous said...

"This whole thing SMELLS BAD. $200MM (if true), values Epic at $400MM. WHAT! No way. With 140 employees, that is almost $2.9MM/employee. No freakin' way is that real. "

Uh ... yeah. I believe one of the articles said they have 400 employees in Canada, which would bring the per employee thing to around $740,740.

"Why does EVERY SINGLE STORY have to be absolutely packed with lies and half-truths? WHY?"

Perhaps it would help if you read them before ranting.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

one of the articles said they have 400 employees in Canada

Where?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I just looked over their website, and can't find a reference to Canada. Of course, the site is designed to sell planes, not disclose anything unnecessary... but even so, their Bend location is mentioned several times, nothing about Canada.

Is the Canada outfit REALLY part of Epic, or is it the parent, "Aircraft Investor Resources"? Cuz everything is saying the guy bought 50% of EPIC... nothing else. What do these 400 people do?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Straight up verbatim quote from The Bulletin:

Epic employs 140 people in Bend.

Zilch about 400 employees in Canada.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Perhaps it would help if you read them before ranting.

Perhaps you need to quote a source on this before declaring me wrong. I may well be wrong... but your comment has no source, and I can find nothing to substantiate it.

Anonymous said...

"Why does EVERY SINGLE STORY have to be absolutely packed with lies and half-truths? WHY?"

Perhaps it would help if you read them before ranting.

*

What fun would that be? Biggest lie of BULL I have ever read here.

Anonymous said...

It appears that in aug06 epic signed a deal with a 'hangar' in calgary canada, the reason was the FAA refused to approve the planes, the plan was to build two up there and get them approved by the canadian aviation authority. The enigne is made in canada by pratt&witney, the hangar was supposed to go online in the spring of 2007, there is a bull story in jan 07, and there is PDF copy of the story on the epic website about '400', from what the canadians say its just a few guys in a hangar through a few planes together as a kit to get approval up there.

There is NO manufacturing facility, just a loophole to get approved up there, probably more of a stick, as once they were approved, the the US fed would get moving.

It's certain that boss Schrameck is running deals all over and promising jobs to ever two bit airport on planet earth. Note that doesn't mean the jobs exist.

Laslty, as I said a few days ago on this they FARM everything out, thus the 160 employees in Bend ( if thats even true ) doesn't mean anything as every component is sub-contracted like the engine by pratt&whitney in canada.

*******
“The Canadian Centre for Aerospace Development will greatly expand knowledge, expertise and
opportunity in Alberta’s aerospace sector,” said Myrna DubĂ©, the newly appointed president of
the CCAD. “General aviation and unmanned vehicles systems are undergoing tremendous
changes and expansion, and our project is a very timely response to industry demands.”
Page 2
Calgary Airport Authority president and CEO Garth Atkinson said that response has already
prompted one company to locate part of its operations in southern Alberta. Aircraft Investor
Resources (AIR), the parent company of Epic AIR, today announced it will move its completion
and certified manufacturing facilities to the Springbank Airport.
“Our experience working with the Calgary Airport Authority and Transport Canada has been very
positive and we are confident this is the right location for our endeavour,” said Rick Schrameck,
CEO of AIR. “The company’s plan is to bring our technology to Calgary as well as several
hundred jobs.”

Anonymous said...

http://www.epicaircraft.com/editorials.html

search the above link for canada, there you'll find a PDF of a copy of a BULL story on the issue from sep06,

Then search google for 'calgary epic', and you'll find the little hanger in the middle of no-where.


My guess is they said 400 to get the hanger and permits from Calgary, but the plan was just to get two so they could get western-hemisphere approval so they could build planes and get them certified to sell in India.

My opinion is that the guy was trying to make you do the leg work on the story, just more BULL by the BULL and epic, note these folks dump BIG LOADS of shit at every town they go to, I think that Schrameck was trained by KURATEK.

Just go to a little fucking town like bend or calgary that has an airport and promise them 500 fucking jobs and get sex for life.

I mean you get the city to force the taxpayers virgin daughters to be the HO's for these boyz, eventually your INDIAN with big hair will come here and get some pussy himself.

Anonymous said...

Perhaps it would help if you read them before ranting.

Perhaps you need to quote a source on this before declaring me wrong. I may well be wrong... but your comment has no source, and I can find nothing to substantiate it.

*

It's ok, why did you do your blog of the week on saturday as opposed to sunday??

I think we now know the 400 in canada is BULLSHIT, and we know the 160 in bend is BULLSHIT, and we know that columbia and epic are bullshit, and bankrupt, and now they have sold out to world class bullshitters with big hair.

I just say this because we don't yet know who will buy columbia, and it very well could be the indian guy with big hair, if he presents the best offer.

Note like I said yesterday, the US to date has sold 10K of these rich-mans private jets, probably most of HELOC money, they ain't going to sell no more, the ones already built will probably get foreclosed and sent to asia ( india&china ), there are +1Million rich guys in asia that would love to fly their own plane prop-or-jet.

To date there are only 50 private jets flying in India thus the market is HUGE, while the market in the US is fucked.

The whole deal here with epic I think is this ... economy went to shit in 2006 fall, at that time epic went ape shit because the FAA said we might approve your plane in 2030, they flim-flam a calgary hanger, and drive an F100 with parts up to calgary and throw together a few planes, the Asians grease the wheels of canadian government and get the planes approved. Then the epic goes to the FAA and says look our planes are approved, and goes to India and says "look our planes are approved", then they sell the company ASAP.

Before the fucking economy IMPLODES.

p.s. we in the BULL business call these FAA obstacles "certifcation delays".

Without certification an aircraft is a boat anchor, .e.g. you couldn't sell it to zimbabwe, with cerification you can sell the company to an India mogul with big hair. ( great pictures in todays blog )

Anonymous said...

Read the calgary quote carefully, on the same day Schrameck is telling Bend is creating 400 jobs in canada, he's telling the canadians several hundred, its like what IHTBYB said the other day, why not just make it a million or a trillion??

Everything is BULLSHIT, the important for US, the ones stuck in the SORE/BULL shit-house, is WHY? WHY suck up to the professional liars?? Doesn't any of our media have any shame??

**

Aircraft Investor
Resources (AIR), the parent company of Epic AIR, today announced it will move its completion
and certified manufacturing facilities to the Springbank Airport.
“Our experience working with the Calgary Airport Authority and Transport Canada has been very
positive and we are confident this is the right location for our endeavour,” said Rick Schrameck,
CEO of AIR. “The company’s plan is to bring our technology to Calgary as well as several
hundred jobs.”

Anonymous said...

Read the below and substitute "rocky view" for "juniper ridge", talking about fucking boilerplate, we found our fucking sister city in Canada.

***

“Our experience working with the Calgary Airport Authority and Transport Canada has been very
positive and we are confident this is the right location for our endeavour,” said Rick Schrameck,
CEO of AIR. “The company’s plan is to bring our technology to Calgary as well as several
hundred jobs.”
Several government, industry and community partners are working with The Authority on the
CCAD. They include the Government of Canada (Western Economic Diversification and
Transport Canada), the Province of Alberta (Alberta Economic Development), the City of
Medicine Hat, The City of Calgary, the Municipal District of Rocky View, and Calgary
Economic Development.
“The CCAD will open doors for high quality job opportunities and push the envelope for
creativity and innovation in the aerospace sector in Alberta,” said Art Hanger, MP for Calgary
North East. “This represents a cutting edge opportunity for Canada to enter the unmanned
vehicle development field.”
“Aerospace is a growing market that Canada has an opportunity to capitalize on,” said Clint
Dunford, Minister of Alberta Economic Development. “Alberta has taken the initiative and it is
time now to establish a focal point for all Canadians for the advancement of this growing
industry.”
“The CCAD will add diversity to the local economy,” said Mayor Bronconnier. “Our city’s
vibrant entrepreneurial spirit is attracting world-class facilities because we are a centre of
innovation and imagination.”
“Rocky View is very pleased to have the Canadian Centre for Aircraft Certification in
Springbank,” said Brenda (Young) Goode, Division 2 Councillor, Municipal District of Rocky
View. “The CCAC will add to the growing number of aerospace capacities at Springbank Airport,
which is a strategic employment center for the Calgary Region. The addition of Epic AIR’s
manufacturing facility will further showcase the dynamic growth taking place in Rocky View.”

Anonymous said...

'rocky view' major tenant anchor epic, to build two fucking planes and then sell the company.

'juniper ridge' major tenant les schwab flip two fucking tires and then sell and dismantle the company, ...

Bend is fucked, but its NOT just bend, its every where and every place this people touch.

Note, Brogman will drive Les Schwab into the toilet, and thus even if JR gets built, they'll never have a major tenant.

The majors will buy and dismantle Les Schwab for market share.

Anonymous said...

A look at today's issue of Barron's magazine reveals that Cascade Bancorp currently has the highest short interest ratio of any bank in the US (as measured by average days trading volume required to cover). In simple English this means that there is more short selling of CACB's stock, given its size, than on any other bank in America. So, there is a lot of smart money betting that these guys will report a terrible quarter, way below analysts' expectations. They should report their results sometime between Oct 14 and Oct 20. Any guesses as to how their performance will look?
-CACB Shorter

Bend Economy Man said...

Why does EVERY SINGLE STORY have to be absolutely packed with lies and half-truths? WHY?

For a real doozy of flat out misleading, unethical journalism (I mean worse than Pravda), check out this KTVZ story: As home sales cool, rental market sizzles. And watch the video segment linked on that page too.

Only the editorializing of KTVZ reporters themselves would indicate that the rental market is "sizzling," unless "sizzling" means "desperate and bloated with inventory." NOT ONE SINGLE FACT in the story supports the editorializing (the story, both on video and on the webpage, starts with "they're going like hotcakes!" If the hotcakes in question are made of dogshit, then, yes.

It says that:

- since home price sales have slowed, the market has been flooded with rentals

- some rental offerings are for outrageous prices

- a local rental broker says ""If it's lower end of the price range, we can have that rented in a week"

- that same broker says "There's so much inventory to choose from, just like if you're buying, and the prices are competitive."

- the reporter finishes the story by suggesting that renters ask landlords for a lower rent or $500 off the first month's rent.

OK. Does that sound like a "sizzling" rental market to you, or one that smells like the fear of desperate flippers?

The most egregious lapse in journalistic judgment: the statement "Right now, rental demand is higher than supply, so prices are edging a little steeper than normal." How do these (a) idiots or (b) dishonest journalists at KTVZ get "rental demand is higher than supply" from any of the actual facts they reported?

If prices are edging higher, it's because people are trying to cover mortgage payments. Again, less sizzle, more fizzle.

Bend Economy Man said...

Wondering - where is the Lava Court boondoggle on the Bust-o-Meter scale?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

For a real doozy of flat out misleading, unethical journalism (I mean worse than Pravda), check out this KTVZ story: As home sales cool, rental market sizzles

My wife & I both were just totally confused by that story. Fact A + Fact B + Fact C = Conclusion... What?

You'll notice the rental market in Bend is ALWAYS HOT. Why? Cuz YOU gotta buy a HOUSE.

Man, what a load. Check craigslist Flipper Bait Dumbshits. You'll get $.30 on the mortgage dollar.

Anonymous said...

Yeh, NO fucking SHIT, remember ole bend-bust is-was a fucking landlord in this fucking shit hole ( man I like to say fuck ).

This summer outrageous, run a craigs and get 100 emails/day, and 50 phone calls, now 2 emails/day and zero phone.

What happened?

I'll tell you what happened word got back to cail that THERE ARE NO FUCKING JOBS HERE.

sincerely, yours,

Anonymous said...

In simple English this means that there is more short selling of CACB's stock, given its size, than on any other bank in America. So, there is a lot of smart money betting
*
Everyone that wanted to make the bend bubble play bought CACB in 2002, and SOLD spring of fucking 2006, if you still own CACB, YOU deserve to be fucked in the ass by benbb for a fucking month 24/7.

Anonymous said...

I have had too much to drink tonight. So excuuuuse me for the bend incoherency.


Forever in this fucking shit hole its been $500/mo for an apt, and $750 for a home, even years ago people on awbrey were renting their shit to meth cooks.

Reason, in Bend your either a buyer ( you have money ), or your a worker ( you have two jobs and your fucked ), always been this way here.

That's why the smart white trash has been cooking meth forever, guess what now that you can't get sudafed they're back to doing grow op's in the rentals.

Today the APT's are gone, converted to condo's, that ok, they didn't sell so the moron who paid $200k, can rent it for $500k, ok your making 30%/yr on appreciation.

The housing market, same as always renters will always be renters, but on $7/hr with two jobs, that puts you about $35k, which is the magic $750/mo, more than that your renter starves.

Moral of fucking story? In bend you had best bought your rentals back in the 1970's when everything cost $15k.

The TV, the BULL, the SORE why so out of fucking dis-connect, my guess is they're all like radio these days I'll bet your ALL content in ALL our media is created in India for $60/mo.

Anonymous said...

- the reporter finishes the story by suggesting that renters ask landlords for a lower rent or $500 off the first month's rent.

*

The landlord asks renter for free pussy 24/7 on demand.

We're entering barter times here, what do you have to trade? I know lots of landlords that let their tenants flat-back for rent.

Welcome to Bend.

p.s. We dont' call them RE-HO's for nuttin.

Anonymous said...

Wondering - where is the Lava Court boondoggle on the Bust-o-Meter scale?

*

Yeh, we need a math-engine, plug in ...

1.) location
2.) lot size
3.) 2004/1998 price ratio
4.) view,... attributes
5.) $/sq-ft
6.) time on market
7.) age of subdivision
8.) hoa, ccr, ... negatives,...

Integrate the above and spit out a bust-o-meter metric.

Anonymous said...

You'll notice the rental market in Bend is ALWAYS HOT. Why? Cuz YOU gotta buy a HOUSE. - IHTBYB

*

You have killed this dead horse, most of us except TT know that renting is the smart move, but if you can afford to buy, and get a deal, and you need the write off, and your staying here forever,...

Most don't need to BUY-a-HOUSE, especially if your a worker bee here, a very tenuous proposition, given that for at least the next ten years your going to lose money if you sell.

Lastly, when I write on this subject I don't give a fuck about business, we had this chat on duncans blog yesterday about how some businessmen fuck each other and hold cards. My approach to the rental biz, is to always have the best homes, in the best hood, for the best price, my competition is fucked. This is why they have to rent to meth cooks, and pot growers.

My experience in my years in the rental biz, is that most renters are of course sleaze by defn, that said there are MANY good people that don't want to get tied down. A good renter NEVER stays for more than 3-5 years because eventually they do buy. I always try to price rentals under MTG cost.

Like I have said a zillion times here forever in Bend its been $500/mo for an APT ( I don't do APT's or Condos ), and $750/mo for a home. Today we're back where we have always been.

Given that half the homes in Bend are second and/or flippers sitting empty, and the economy is going to shit. A lot of this shit will become rentals. My feeling is like most things people don't understand how much work it is. Every five years paint a home inside and out, and redo the hardwood floors, every time they move out you have to clean the house and yard to perfection to show.

Getting back to good people, after 3-5 years they either decide to leave or stay, if they leave they're gone, and if they stay they buy, in the last few years they go to the east-side where you get more for your money, I have always been a westside person so I don't have to cross I97.

Lastly, if you have to pay someone to paint, do the floors, and all the maintenance you'll not make any money in the rental biz.

Most things in Bend these days are about losing TONS of money, folks pay $500k for a small home they rent for $800, they lose $1,000/mo on the MTG, they pay for maintenance, property management, ... so they're losing $2,000/mo, then they're losing another 10%/yr on negative depreciation. This is BIG time bleeding.

Bend will become a FUCKING mess, what the fuck do I care?

Like I tried to explain to Tim,TT,... If and when you buy a house, buy a NICE home, not a foreclosure that has been run down to shit. On the average it takes a year of hard work to bring a home back. In my case I can always rent a NICE home in a NICE neighborhood for a LOW price, and always have, and always will. These things are possible if you paid less than 100K for the home.

I have already spent months explaining that nice homes in nice hoods will NOT fall below 4X ( $160K based on wiki $40k/yr income ), because this is stabilization. Where the average 'good person' can BUY, and WILL BUY.

We have a ways to go, probably next year.

On the subject of buying a home, NOW is a good time, because people are afraid and will take your low ball offer. You wait, until next year or later, and then they'll think the trough has passed, and they'll say "I waited this long for top price, I can wait forever".

Now is the time to BUY from people who paid $120k back in pre 1998, and who are quite happy to get $180k.


I have bought two homes this year, I got my best deal of the year back this winter. My feeling is that even at $180k, with $50k down you can get a loan for about $1k/mo, which will pencil. I would always tell young people to do 15 year fixed, because time goes quick, and the renter pays off the MTG quick, now that I'm an old fart, I don't care anymore.

There is NOTHING great about owning a home, and there is NOTHING great about owning a home free and clear. Home ownership is only about the right to property tax.

Forced savings, is what the biz is about retirement income. For those that have PERS or FED fine, but for people who are privately employed the rental racket is one of the few retirement rackets around. Look at all the people that have and will lose their 401K on dot-com, and the the MTG bond meltdown.

Over the long term the rental biz is about getting other people to pay the MTG, and then in the later years you collect the rent.

Just my thoughts on the rental biz.

In case anyone out there is serious about becoming a 'landlord'.

Anonymous said...

I'll tell you what happened word got back to cail that THERE ARE NO FUCKING JOBS HERE.

*

I feel like more needs to be said here this summer was HOT, tons of people living in their car trying to make in it in Bend.

Now they're pulling out. Why? No jobs, and the shitting fucking truth, the truth is that if your young BEND is NOT FUN. Sure the city paid our taxpayer dollar to outside mag, to rate bend #1, and sure phils trail is ok, but riding a $5k carbon fibre bike atop your suv, is NOT why the kids came here.

If your not a rich middle age yuppy, then bend SUCKS.

In past summers ( ok a few years ago ) bend was great hang out anywhere on the river and drink beer, dogs everywhere swimming, ...

Now you can't have a dog, and the PIGS (bend cops) are writing tickets for just looking poor.

So this summer with ad's in the local papers and/or craigs ad's advertise a home, and 100's of emails/day and dozens/calls day per house.

Now in the middle of September, zilch down to almost zero.

This is going to be interesting, because the potential renters are gone, you have a glut of homes, and the mass of poor people all of a sudden realize that bend isn't cool anymore.

We know the rich will figure that bend isn't cool, but it actually makes sense, because the people that make cool, cool are the artists, hippys, music, ... Hell music do you know how many clubs and musicians have left this summer? When bend isn't a cool place for the young, then it becomes just like Palm Springs a desert golf town for tourists, then how in the hell can you sell bend, just another retirement place for blue-haired geezers, ...

Ok, so my point is that they came, and they found out that bend isn't wasn't cool, and they have left.

Where did they go? From my talking they have gone to remote areas in colorado that have not yet been yuppified, there are still lots of remote areas in colorado that are cool, and yuppy free.

In summary my point here is that for the next six months the rental market is going to get UGLY. You have about 5K rentals chasing 1K renters, like I have said I don't care, because I run 100% all the time, people don't move out on me, because I provide nice homes for cheap, and I NEVER raise the rent.

I think ALL these BEND MORONS trying to rent their flipper bait will try to FUCK the renter, you know let them in, and then raise the rent, ... Renters don't put up with that shit in this type of market.

Anonymous said...

Getting BACK to columbia I would like IHTBYB to comment on why he keeps using $200M figure?

All the aviation press says $120M, sure the BULL says $200M, but why do you use a BULL figure?

Note also on the canadian employment the BULL last aug-2006 said 400, and the calgary papers print 200, of course the info in both cases came from the same guy at columbia air, whose name I'll not use on a family blogsite.

Why in bend does everything have to be 2X???? Why in Bend a place full of PR shit, do they have to stack the shit even higher??

Another thing not mentioned yesterday on this subject, these kinds come to shit holes like Bend and promise tons of jobs, for one reason so they don't have to pay taxes, anytime you see some captain of industry come to Bend and the BULL writes about ALL the jobs, you know that company is getting tax incentives, this is how these bleeding money losing companys stay in business, because we the taxpayer float their business.

Outright fraud is what these company's do when they come to towns and setup incentive packages.

Does anyone at the BULL even live in Bend?? Or is all the content now written in India at centralized call centers and media content creation centers??

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

where is the Lava Court boondoggle on the Bust-o-Meter scale?

That brings up the issue of trying to quantify when city graft & corruption has actually concluded? Lava Court still seems like a project where taxpayers could still keep getting ripped off.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

where is the Lava Court boondoggle on the Bust-o-Meter scale?

The real bear about a "Bust-O-Meter", is that "start ups" are advertised to high heaven, while failures go down without a peep. Hell, there'll be hundreds of small builders & contractors that go down over the next few years, but few if any will get a media mention.

Even todays "Failure" of an art gallery in St Clair Place, has been spun into a "I'm so successful at so many other business ventures, that I simply do not have the time For Yet Another Enormously Successful Business... and am forced, for reasons beyond my control, to sell this wildly successful amenity business."

Right.

The Real Story? This gallery owner, like everyone in this area, is scrambling wildly to figure out how to make ends meet, and has gone into about 30 extensions of her business, because she knows FULL WELL, the gallery will bankrupt her if she signs another lease.

Yeah... selling greeting cards at $3/ea is The Answer. I'm sure that'll pay her Sisters mortgage.

But, in the meantime, she’s busy trying to sell her downtown business. Her lease is up in mid-December, which she hopes to extend through the holidays. After the holidays, however, she will have sold the gallery or closed its doors.

“It takes so much time for me to run this,” Haney-Neal said in her space crammed with colorful artwork. “This is not self-sustainable for how much time I have to put into it.”


This is the proverbial "Best Minimum Wage Job A Gal Ever Had", except she means it, cuz she is absentee. Landlord is the only person really making anything on her gallery, the same being true for 95% of downtown businesses.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Re "Battle of the Butte", the race up Pilot Butte yesterday:

Bend’s Bill Lauderback, 90, crushed the course record for his age division (90-98), with a time of 18:16.2. “I did what I wanted to do,” said Lauderback, tracing his finger down the finishing times. “It’s worth living for, if you can inspire anyone else.”

Rock on Bill! DAMN!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

For a portrait of almost incomprehensible rationalizing done by a downtown business owner, read Gallery owner returns to making art
Wild Women artist is looking for buyers


Haney-Neal says her retail and wholesale business earns her enough money to pay the roughly $2,500 per month, including taxes, insurance, utilities and common-area maintenance charges. Winter months slow foot traffic dramatically, she said, even though her gallery is only two blocks from busy Wall Street: “My (business) would be fine if I could work it,” she said. “All the retail businesses around me are manned by owners. I just don’t have the time.”

This woman is an ABSENTEE OWNER, who does not have enough time to RUN IT. I'm not quite sure where to start. She starts an art gallery, then starts putting the art on ceramics, and greeting cards, she plans on EXPANDING into "sculpture and landscape painting". WHAT?

"I started a business, but due to it's success and/or failure & not having the time to run it absentee, I have to shut it down." HUH?

But, in the meantime, she’s busy trying to sell her downtown business. Her lease is up in mid-December, which she hopes to extend through the holidays. After the holidays, however, she will have sold the gallery or closed its doors.

My God. Can we just get the straight story here? The woman started an art gallery that she was too lazy to actually work at cuz she can't make the Sisters-to-Bend-to-Sisters commute everyday, and then starts proliferating a host of offshoot loser ideas, cuz the gallery has never made a dime. She claims it "makes the rent". Right. I interpret this to mean she has gross sales equal to $2,500/mo.... maybe.

ATTENTION AMENITY LOCUSTS: This can be your fate, IF THE PRICE IS RIGHT! That price happens to be every penny you got!

And The Bulletin has done its requisite job in putting the best possible face on what is a financial disaster... she's too busy... she's too successful to elsewhere to continue working this thing... my Lord. How many lies can possibly be packed into a story? This business, like 75% downtown, CAN BARELY MAKE ITS RENT FROM 100% OF GROSS SALES. Utilities, payroll, inventory & EVERYTHING ELSE comes straight out of the owners (hopefully deep) pockets. This thing has NEVER MADE A PENNY, AND NEVER WILL. This describes 75% of downtown businesses.

Fair Value? -$50,000. You'd have to pay me A LOT to take it. It's a license to lose money.

But no.... according to The Bulletins crack staff of fact checkers, this is Yet Another Amenity Goldmine! YEAH!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Ooops! Sorry! She is MAKING HER UTILITY PAYMENTS!

Duncan McGeary said...

So she's grossing 83.33 a day?

I've mentioned that there are three or four businesses in a row that I walk by twice a day and rarely if ever see anyone in them. That goes for three or four businesses across the street too.

Amazing.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Haney-Neal has invested $30,000 to $40,000 in the new ventures. But it’s worth it, she says, to leave the stress of operating a storefront in downtown Bend for a studio and showroom in her hometown of Sisters.

Wow. I hope she doesn't build another business that requires so much of her time that she is forced to abandon it, due to the stresses of ABSENTEE OWNERSHIP.

"Losing THIS $40K is WORTH IT to abandon the work of my previous white elephant, which takes up 0 hours/wk of my time."

Seriously, this article is rife with idiocy. Not so much this woman, but it is in essence a "Business For Sale" listing by The Bulletin. And the business it is selling is just about any "Financially Unworkable Amenity Business in Downtown Bend".

retail and wholesale business earns [owner] enough money to pay the roughly $2,500 per month, including taxes, insurance, utilities and common-area maintenance charges.

I mean, shit... that's the words of a business broker... not a reporter.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

three or four businesses in a row

That little strip of Minnesota is just The Death Zone. Zilch foot traffic. SEEMS like it'd be great... just 100ft from your place, which has awesome foot traffic. But it might as well be on the moon. That's the value of KNOWING LOCATION. She probably signed a 5yr lease thinking she was w/in 50ft of kickass foot traffic, so there HAS TO BE some overflow... NO. People on the East side of Bond look up that little strip, see a dead end and keep walking.

$2,500/mo probably seemed great when she signed. Now she knows...

Duncan McGeary said...

I didn't say which three or four stores (or six or eight) I'm talking about. I'm being coy because I know that people could walk by my store and see it empty often enough to wonder. Always difficult to gauge from the outside. But after a while, you do get a sense....

Difference is, I think, that I have lots of track record of previous sales. I know what to expect and have positioned my business decisions accordingly.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I didn't say which three or four stores (or six or eight) I'm talking about.

I realize you can't kick sand in particular faces.

What's starting to become apparent to me is that Bend is really too big to be an Art Gallery Town. There can be little enclaves in larger towns that are artsy-fartsy, but for galleries to work in the heart of a town, it has to be like Sisters... small, destination, cheesy, overpriced knick-knack haven. Bends got "overpriced" down pat... but it's too big to be Aspen-y.

We've got Gallery lease pricing... but are a town totally inappropriate for housing many galleries. It's not "cozy" enough.

I don't know... just seems that downtown is becoming sort of contradictory; a knick-knack overpriced core, that is spreading out too much to make the knick-knack business plan workable.

Duncan McGeary said...

I have my doubts that art galleries are profitable anywhere.

Just like sports card shops are run by guys in their 50's with pensions, art galleries are probably almost always a dream.

Either that are the are also artist studio's. It makes sense if you are going to need a space to create, that you sell your own stuff out of the same space.

Timothy said...

Bend seems "too big" to be a lot of things people want it to be. At 80,000, you have to be a real city with a real economic plan and real infrastructure.

Little towns can be all kinds of things, but a city of 80,000 has to be...a city.

Do you know how small Aspen is For that matter, do you know how small La Pine is?

Anonymous said...

Do you know how small Aspen is For that matter, do you know how small La Pine is?

*

Go to wiki and find out.

Bend is a small town. There are lots of houses and golf courses, but there is no people. This is a small little tourist town. Outside of July/August its just a small town. During July/August its a big tourist town.

Anonymous said...

Just like sports card shops are run by guys in their 50's with pensions, art galleries are probably almost always a dream.

*

There are people in the 'pearl' in PDX, like Lawerence Gallery been around forever.

Art gallerys are about ego, sex, wine, ... Social life, ... woman come and go talking of Michaelangelo,... That's probably why the leisure rich tried to create the buzz in little Bend.

They blamed the presence of Super Burrito, but they built the art gallerys and wine poured during last friday, and did anybody buy the art?

Sex and Socializing people love to be part of that scene, just like the vineyards and winerys in the bay or Willamette Valley, nobody makes money its about lifestyle, e.g. sex and wine.

Anonymous said...

don't know... just seems that downtown is becoming sort of contradictory; a knick-knack overpriced core, that is spreading out too much to make the knick-knack business plan workable.

*

You can't have the CHEESE ( I mean CHEESY ).

We have written about this a lot, but Bend has no Pearl, or SOHO; You don't see time-share hustlers in either, but you do in Bend.

Bend is cotton candy, time-share ( brasada,pronghorn,tetherow ), condo ( ... ), and a few gallery's, but mostly beauty parlors.

For the art thing to work you need to have like Rodeo Drive, and Canyon Drive in Santa Fe, a long street of just art, wine, and sex.

The problem with Bend is its NOT about art, and every one knows that, its about selling real estate, and everybody knows that.

Bend is PR & Marketing, sure they convinced a few suckers to lease art gallery space, but the critical mass doesn't exist, also its not clear their are art buyers here also, its golf, and skiing.

The trouble is REIT's bought all the downtown, and now they have to charge high rent ( leases ), and certainly art gallerys can afford, but there is no 'scene', the scene cannot be one day a month.

The Pearl in PDX pulled it off, by having old warehouse, it allowed the artist to work/live, then they could sell retail on the ground level. Same with SOHO, you don't have this in Bend, because Bend isn't ran by cool people, its ran by Condo sales, time-share sales, ...

It's funny that everyone is trying to turn Bend into something that its not, this is why I always go back to the "small old logging town in the desert", where we're headed is that Bend become a Beaverton, but that ain't cool. Too many strip malls, its too late to attract the Bohemians who are the artists.

Bend is FUCKED, and city money spent on PR will not change that fact.

Anonymous said...

Landlord is the only person really making anything on her gallery, the same being true for 95% of downtown businesses.


*

Thanks for saying that, this is why I have over & over suggested they own the property, then someday when they're 'done', they can rent the building to some sucker, and enjoy the good life.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

At 80,000, you have to be a real city with a real economic plan and real infrastructure.

Welp, we're dead.

And it's true... I've NEVER been to a town where there were prime RETAIL SPACES dedicated to selling homes/condos/timeshares in a specific subdiv. Always LOTS of general purpose Realtors, selling a lot of inventory... but I don't think I've ever seen anything like the Pronghorn or Tetherow "retail" shops that we have.

Of course, I don't get out much, and when I do, I don't go to places lke that. Ummmm... Bend excepted. But I got here pre-Pronghorn, so I guess I'm grandfathered-in.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


Thanks for saying that, this is why I have over & over suggested they own the property, then someday when they're 'done', they can rent the building to some sucker, and enjoy the good life.


THIS is actually about the ONLY successful, long-term business plan I know of for retail. If you do not own, your landlord will ultimately confiscate your earnings. They can't help it. It's always best to approach your landlord in tattered rags, gaunt, pale -- a near-holocaust victim.

If you're red-cheeked & pudgy, that rent will go right up.

Timothy said...

>>Go to wiki and find out.

No, I do know. I just was betting that people that think they know probably overestimate it.

Anonymous said...

Who nailed Sally? Bendbust? You got a hairy back?

I'd like to buy you a drink.

Anonymous said...

THIS is actually about the ONLY successful, long-term business plan I know of for retail. If you do not own, your landlord will ultimately confiscate your earnings.

*

It's the system, not necessarily the land-lord. As you have elegantly said, these guys cannot sell their one-man system its a job, and often the inventory isn't worth much.

If you can squeeze out 20+ years of your life in a little shop, be it bike's in Bend or Video's, or these days VINYL-LP is HOT! You buy your little property, and put in the 20+, and quit, and then rent it out, most small business owners are too busy, like your gal in Sisters to play the game. Thus its not the landlord, but the system that confiscates all, and most often like Duncan says, a "Min wage job", is all they get it, its this way everywhere, not just Bend.

Perhaps in another day when you could rent space in Bend for $500/mo or less, but today with the ++$5k/mo its just too much burn. Then you have ALL the REIT's bidding up the commercial in downtown. Generally when this happens what I do is get out go to the area that the REIT's will not touch, these days in Bend, that be the east-side.

There's lots of little house/buildings on westside, where a person can buy a building, hell if your REAL smart, you can get a place where you can live up stairs, and save money.

I think the worst folks who start business are the 50+ year olds that never were in business, they really think they can do it. Today's kids are fucked after the easy dot-come days, hell everything about Bend is fucked about easy-money, we're quickly going back to the days where everyone works two $7/hr jobs.

Look at 'Taco Shack', good little biz, I'm sure he doesn't own, I'm sure one guy owns it all, but you know he doe's $500/day, or $15k/mo, and the hours 11-4, do something like that for 20+ years in a little building you own, close on sunday,...

Of course ALL the downtown biz models are fucked, perhaps the MAP place is ok, if he owns it, and has steady customers.

So many things today are olive garden, ..., e.g. corporate, run at loss, in Bend just for presence.

Downtown if fucked, the only hope for small business people is side streets all over town, in familiar little biz, with low overhead, minimal employee, ...

But yes, if you didn't buy your building, in the long term you'll have NOTHING.

That said anybody can do it, its just that most don't, life is short, its generally takes someone to kick you in the ass to buy your own building, I think I have suggested such to duncan at least a couple dozen times.

Timothy said...

Sturgeon's Revelation: "Ninety percent of everything is crud."

Sally's blog should have sucked. There's only one reason it didn't. It was part of the 10% of stuff that doesn't suck. It was well-written.

The way Sally would just flat-out admit her childish actions put her into a league of her own, at least for a fictional blogger.

There are, what, a zillion personal blogs out there? They are almost all impossible to read.

Here's to Sally. Hope you have a lot more pairs of heels.

Sigh. I may love her.

Duncan McGeary said...

Buy the building?

I was offered a building on Greenwood at an affordable cost about 7 years ago. Of course, I was broke. My 'middle aged guy minimum wage guy' title isn't just a joke.

Most of my career downtown was in the 'poverty with a view' phase. Just as that was passing, the buildings didn't just double or triple or quadruple....they went into the stratosphere.

Almost no one could buy the buildings downtown, unless they're relieving themselves of the tax burden of the building they sold in L.A. They are multi-million dollar properties.

Anonymous said...

I know, that has happened every where happened years ago in PDX, now its happened in Bend.

Once the REIT's come, and NOTE super-burrito building is owned by a Walmart REIT, all of downtown is REIT.

YOU CANNOT fight REIT, its all human see human do, GET OUT is the solution, find a 4,000sq-ft house, or a building like your wife has thats in a hood not popular, and buy it, ... That said its quite normal where businessmen feel like they have to be downtown, sounds generally like its the cream of your biz, but generally you make it sound likes it the regulars who keep you in biz.

The REIT's are insane, and they'll continue to be insane, as its ALL stock wall street money, perhaps if enough granny's lose their arse in teh coming years, they'll pull out of Bend, but I have found that once REITs buy, eventually they just tear down and build class-1, thus eventually your going to lose your downtown space anyhow.

Thus in summary ownership of the office is NOT only your retirement, but also safety, look at what happened to super-burrito, the MOST successful biz, in downtown, gone.

Anonymous said...

It was part of the 10% of stuff that doesn't suck. It was well-written.

*

Well-written, yes, but interesting?? HELL NO

Useful information? NO

'Married with Children' in Bend, pure & simple, hollywood puns, and cheap 'friends' script, well-written, yes, but still a fucking tv sitcom.

I think the real interesting thing for most here is that this is the first time a virtual women has made presence.

Sally was predictable of our idealistic view of becky, norma, and sandy, our Bend RE women that rule the men of this town.

It wasn't the Bust that killed sally, it was Jerome Senior that ran Sally out of Bend and back to Atlanta.

Duncan McGeary said...

I'm just going to play it as it lays.

A couple more years, and the whole scene may change in my favor.

The real test was the last lease negotiation. My rent didn't go up as much as some of my neighbors, partly because I haven't asked for anything. I have a ceiling what was probably put in in the 50's, and so on.

My neighbors looked at the new leases and decided the rent was too high. They were service businesses, and that made sense.

I have a retail business, and I grumbled for years about how I didn't have any foot-traffic. And I was worried about losing my customers by moving.

(I STILL get people thinking that Pegasus closed because the mall store changed hands....argh.)

So I gambled that I would gain just enough extra business to pay for the extra rent, and this is pretty much what happened.

Anonymous said...

So I gambled that I would gain just enough extra business to pay for the extra rent, and this is pretty much what happened.

*

For now, but eventually they'll do a super-burrito on you, if and when your owner sells out to the REIT's.

Anonymous said...

Why all the self pity about sally losing it all so quickly??

Sally is a Bend success story, her & bob had the best years of their lives in Bend.

Stick with pimping black children in Atlanta, real estate in Bend has made the best of them insolvent.

Anonymous said...

Sally was at the D&D last night we slipped her a mickey, and took her down to La Pines. We dumped her off at the truck-stop bar/coffee shop, and told the drivers present that she was looking for a husband, and needed someone to clean her up.

That's the last we saw of her.

There's a lot of women like sally hanging out at the D&D these days, and sally was becoming a pain begging customers for drinks and offering hand jobs and blow jobs for five bucks. Nobody would fuck sally because she was thought to have every sexually contagious disease imaginable.

It's not over, watch the bulletin, in about 30 days their should be major outbreak of syphilis down in La Pines.

Some say that sally really was a Realtor back in Atlanta, but those that know her say she's simply an old washed up whore that came up to Bend to start a new life.

Last we heard was that Jerome senior came up from Atlanta for his son, and took sally and jennifer back to Atlanta.

Anonymous said...

Bloomberg is a major biz publisher, and note here he says the economy is going to go to shit.

**** HOLD YOUR CASH!

New York mayor predicts economic downturn

1 hour ago

BLACKPOOL, England (AFP) — New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg warned Sunday a global economic downturn was looming, triggered by the "lunacy" of public debt.

Bloomberg, one of the world's richest people, blamed a crisis of confidence for what he said would be either a brief dip or a nosedive.

Advocating fiscal conservatism, Bloomberg said governments should build up a surplus to fall back on during economic slides.

"Being a fiscal conservative means preparing for the inevitable economic downturns -- and by all indications, we've got one coming," he told the annual conference of Britain's main opposition Conservative Party in Blackpool, north-west England.

The founder of financial news and data giant Bloomberg said administrations had to create the conditions for markets to work and bore a responsibility to pay their own way.

Bloomberg said this month's "debacle" at troubled British bank Northern Rock was merely the latest evidence of turmoil in the financial markets.

He said the crisis was only partially due to the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage sector in the United States.

"The fact is, this is not a mortgage crisis -- it's a crisis in confidence and we're all in it together," he told delegates.

"It is being driven by rational expectations of a worsening credit crunch -- which is a self-fulfilling prophecy."

Bloomberg said it was not yet known whether the downturn would be a "dip or a dive," but governments could not stop the business cycle.

He said fiscal conservatism meant balancing budgets rather than running deficits the next generation could not afford -- which would make forthcoming downturns easier to manage by preparing for them.

That depended on improving efficiency, cutting taxes when possible and "when you run a surplus you save it, you don't squander it."

The tycoon blasted some US conservatives, saying: "Too many of them want to run up enormous deficits and hope that some way, somehow -- someone else will pay for it. That's not conservatism -- that's alchemy, or, if you like, lunacy."

The 65-year-old added: "In New York, the economic uncertainty our two countries face today is beginning to feel similar to the economic downturn we experienced six years ago -- but this time, the stakes are higher because more people owe more debt and so do our governments.

"The sun is rising on our borrowing bacchanalia and pretending otherwise will only make the recovery slower and more painful."

He said his principles of governmental economic management required a four-part approach.

"First, improve the quality of life that residents and visitors experience. Second, stick to fiscally responsible principles.

"Third, invest in projects that will unleash and incentivise private sector investment -- and that will both leverage and diversify the economy.

"And fourth, provide strong leadership that is based on independent problem-solving, not partisan politics, and that is not afraid to tackle the toughest problems."

Anonymous said...

That slut gets around. She made it into Ben's blog's comments today.

http://tinyurl.com/yrnvzt

Anonymous said...

Here's a little tidbit from the WAY-BACK machine, Bend Oregon Sep 06, back when Columbia was creating 400 jobs in Calgary.


****

September 7th, 2006 at 9:24 pm

Up here in Bend OR we still have plenty of mania. After all, Bend was the #1 gainer YOY. And we’re the #1 gainer of 30 years. So there’s a lot of sentiment that we’re going to keep going.

And yet, the inventory sits there.

What we have here in Bend is a massive Bid/Ask spread.

Anonymous said...

The Banker of BEND, .e.g. UBS bank, the bank that brought us KURATEK, and vitually every easy money deal, and the whole wrath of REIT to Bend is going to implode tomorrow.

***

UBS latest victim of credit turmoil

By Peter Thal Larsen in London and David Wighton in New York

Published: September 30 2007 23:59 | Last updated: September 30 2007 23:59

UBS is on Monday expected to announce the departure of its investment bank head as it warns that it has written off billions of dollars on fixed-income assets, making the Swiss banking group the biggest casualty so far of the turmoil in the global financial markets.

According to people familiar with the matter, the bank is expected to say it has written down its fixed-income portfolio by more than SFr3bn ($2.6bn), triggering a third-quarter loss of at least SFr600m ($516m).

The losses, which far exceed those reported so far by other investment banks, are expected to trigger the departure of Huw Jenkins, who runs UBS’s investment banking business. He will be the second top banking executive to fall victim of the market turmoil. Last month Warren Spector was ousted as co-president of Bear Stearns following the collapse of two mortgage hedge funds the bank managed.

Anonymous said...

Note BOYZ the SHIT HITS the fan now,

October is when the Quarter reports go out to GRANNY by law, now she finds out her pension is GONE.

Expect massive redemptions heretofore,

Expect lots of spin,

Expect lots of BULL.

Anonymous said...

Who nailed Sally? Bendbust? You got a hairy back?

I'd like to buy you a drink.

*

From the very start I said sally wouldn't last two weeks in Bend. She was out of her league, two bit whore from Atlanta. She simply didn't have the right-stuff to be a Bend RE-HO.

In my line of work we call the sally's of this world "Psycho Pussy", dangerous muff.

Yeh, sally got nailed, in the parlance of La Pines, sally got 'gang banged'. The boyz down in La Pines will be talking about sally for months, e.g. or until elk season.

Sally came to Bend, and yes should could write, but so what, the people at the BULL & SORE can also write. The PR folks that run Bend on the behalf of Brooks can write.

That's sort of a consistent theme of Bend, great initial presentation, its the long term problem.

There will be more sally's coming to Bend. You folks need to remember that Atlanta is a mess, #1 in foreclosures today, homes aren't even being bought at auction for $120k, homes that had been selling for $350k in 2004. Bend really isn't even close to the bottom, or the foreclosure glut.

Anonymous said...

Bend Bacchanalia

*

A theme from todays report by Bloomberg.

Here's a little to ponder, I predicted a way back that 'sally' found her way here via the Brooks clothes-line fiasco.

Sally seems to know more about Atlanta, than about Bend.

Atlanta has big problems, but the worst are in Roswell, GA; and there is a realtor there who is the most crooked CONDO HO of all time, in the worst RE market in America, and a place where foreclosures are max.

It's called "Heatherton Luxury Townhomes", a condo ho's condo ho, its a fair bet that our sally, was brought in to sell condo's off the street as she is a recovering crack whore according to Jerome. She got screwed by Heatherton, came up to Bend hearing that it was #1, and tried to start her life anew.

At this point my eyes are actually starting to become watery for sally, she has a hard life.

There's a place where sally used to work according to Jerome called Bacchanalia, which was one of the finest places in the city to rent a white woman. When she started the crack she ended up on the black side of town, and later fell into the Roswell RE-HO crowd.

I think the puzzle, has been fairly well worked out.

Rumor is the folks in Atlanta may buy Merenda and actually open "Bend Bacchanalia", note bacchnalia is old roman eat, drink, and puke, and eat some more lifestyle. So Bend.

I miss sally.

Anonymous said...

In Bend the housing market remains skewed by one factor - the city is running out of buildable land. The city's last update of its Buildable Lands Survey in January counted only 995 acres left inside city limits that are vacant. The result has been rising prices for land and, with that, high costs of new housing.

Last year one of the last big tracts of undeveloped land was bought by Pahlisch Homes -- 75-acres for $15 million. That's $200,000 an acre. The straightjacket on buildable land is what's caused the problem over the last 5 years.


http://www.bendbulletin.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060302/BIZ0102/603020335/0/FRONTPAGE&template=print

Anonymous said...

I think the whole Sally thing was written at once, and then skillfully used the blog format to hook people. Perfect execution.

I don't even think she's about the bubble. Probably not about Bend. She's saying, "you people are ridiculous."

Maybe she lives in Atlanta. Whoever heard of Piggly Wiggly anyway?

Anonymous said...

I thought you were making all that shit up, but here ya go...

http://www.montehewetthomes.com/monte/community.cfm?commid=48&view=1

Heatherton townhomes. Atlanta.

Unbelievable.

Anonymous said...

BendBust's Believe it or NOT, ...

Greatest show on earth, right here in Bend, Oregon, Home of the Condo-Ho

Wasn't it Mark Twain that said truth is stranger than fiction. Did anyone read really read all the stuff during the past two days on Columbia?

Bend is one fucking funny town, unlimited material available.

Anonymous said...

We need more land? To what, build more empty unsold houses?

Anonymous said...

city's last update of its Buildable Lands Survey in January counted only 995 acres left inside city limits that are vacant.

*

Jeeeeeeezu fucking christ what BULLSHIT, what is this figure raw lots available on Mt Pilot Butte??

The fact is it was R10, then R5, then R3.5, then R2.5, and the boyz are trying to get R1.5 signed off.

Of anything thats NOT available in Bend its placed to build crap-shacks.

Isn't the whole point of this blog is that we have a glut of crap-shacks?????

Anonymous said...

That's $200,000 an acre.

*

That's a fucking bargain, an acre 40k sq-ft, and that 's 8 5k lots, which have been selling for $300k.

Do you want fucking crocodile tears because Paschlickshit makes MORE fucking money on selling lots than its does on building homes.

See thats the issue here, and its always been, the developers make their money selling lots to suckers.

Pashlickshit says $200k an acre is too much for them to pay, yet they don't feel shy about selling 5k (r5) lots for $300k. That's a ten fold return on your money.

This is NOT about building homes, this is about getting cheap land and turning around and selling it. Nobody makes money selling homes in Bend, but folks like Brook, .... make their money buy worthless desert land.

When the new rule of R1.5 comes that 40 lots per acre, think about that and you know they'll sell for $200k, thus ALL these FUCKING bitches will make 40X, pay $200k for an acre and sell it for $8M no wonder these bastards own the FUCKING BULL, and the BULL goes with the fucking program.

Anonymous said...

Piggly Wiggly was the first true self-service grocery store.[1] It was founded on September 6, 1916, at 79 Jefferson Street in Memphis, Tennessee, by Clarence Saunders. A replica of the original store has been constructed in the Memphis Pink Palace Museum, which was originally a mansion that Saunders built as his private residence which was later sold to the city.

For the first time, customers at Piggly Wiggly entered the store through turnstiles and walked through four aisles to view the store’s 605 items sold in packages and organized into departments. They selected their goods as they continued through the maze to a cashier. Instantly, packaging and brand recognition became important to companies and consumers. Without self-service, modern branded packaged goods would not exist. The concept of the "self-serving store" was patented by Saunders in 1917.

Anonymous said...

I thought you were making all that shit up

*

Don't need to make no shit up in Bend, in Bend we are in a world of fucking shit.

Timothy said...

>>We need more land? To what, build more empty unsold houses?

With more land, builders could build houses people could afford, like they used to.

Anonymous said...

What's starting to become apparent to me is that Bend is really too big to be an Art Gallery Town.
*

PDX has the pearl, a thriving art district, but you will NOT find a condo-ho flat-backing or chasing tourists down the street.

Bend could have an art district, perhaps someday in the Red Robin at the Old Mill?

Until the boys who sell time-share to morons are ran out of town, and until they quit running this town, this town is only going to be about one thing. Selling time-shares to losers, and selling lots to real fucking losers.

Been to Mexico? Like Cabo San Lucas? Take the bus to the beach from airport theres a condo salesman in the bus, and they're selling lots, and they'll follow you while your in town.

Bend is exactly setup the same way. Any sophisticated traveler can figure out Bend in about 60 seconds, which is why bend will never be aspen, and which is why bend is a two bit hustlers town.

Anonymous said...

With more land, builders could build houses people could afford, like they used to.

*

That statement from you proves once and for all either your don't get it, or your a complete fucking idiot.

Anonymous said...

With more land, builders could build houses people could afford, like they used to.
*
Houses used to cost $15k in Bend in the 1970's, and during the last 40 years Bend had the highest appreciation in the country, and its NOT fucking coming back, and it had nothing to fucking do with 'builders'.

Builders buy over priced lots from developers and try to make 15%. Developers buy worthless land and sell it for a fortune to builders, who hope to find a greater fool than themselves.

Look today at Brasada, Tetherow, Pronghorn, they're only selling lots, nobody has the cash to lock up into building.

There is NO profit in building.

Affordable homes has nothing to do with building.

The bulk of the cost of a new home, of course by definition these would be outer mongolian mcDesert mcMansion homes, these days its $150k for the lots and $100k for crap-shack, the builder try's to maek $10k on the crapshack, but the developer paid $20k for 5k-sqft lot, this is where the profit is, and this is why developers want the city to GIVE them more land for nothing.

Then again developers OWN the city of Bend, so if you can convince a enough assholes and morons that giving hand-outs to developers will trickle down to morons, ... but isn't that what we have been doing for the past five years???

It must be real tough these days, down to 900 acres of raw 'in city land', that's only about 90 - 10 acre deals left, and then all the developers have to leave and move on, how fucking sad.

We MUST create more land, we must save our developers, they're TOO BIG TO FAIL.

Anonymous said...

The reason our 'timothy' cannot buy his fucking house in Bend, is that developers aren't making enough profit.

I get it.

Anonymous said...

"Isn't the whole point of this blog is that we have a glut of crap-shacks?????"

Two points:

1. Yes, but we wouldn't have the glut if land prices would have remained low. If there's unlimited supply of land on which to build, prices will never go up in the first place. Since there seemed to be scarcity, prices for land and houses were bid up into the stratosphere. High selling prices for houses tend to attract new builders to the area. Hence the arrival of Pahlisch in 2002. In Texas there's virtually unlimited land, so even with too much building prices have remained sensible all this time.

2. Lack of buildable land means that builders preferred to build a 2200+ sq ft house on a 0.14 lot. Who wants to live on a 0.14 lot in the desert, only 15 feet on each side from your neighbors?

With no limits on land usage, we'd have neither problem 1 or 2!

Anonymous said...

1. Yes, but we wouldn't have the glut if land prices would have remained low.

**

FUCK YOU.

We have a glut because easy-money made TOO MANY of YOU fucking builders build too many homes, and easy-money, like all bubbles caused suckers to out bid one another, and now we have real estate paralysis.

There's a glut because there are NO buyers. Everyone that could buy a home in Bend, did buy a home, and most bought 2 or 3.

It wouldn't have mattered how much land their was or how cheap the land was, in all these bubbles people start buying the houses before they're built, I was around in the 70's I remember, people were buying lottery tickets for the right to buy.

Whenever you have a speculative bubble, where homes are going up 70%/yr, your going to have everybody try to get in the deal.

This is why homes in Bend became un-affordable.

Now the problem is the prices cannot go down, because most people have NO equity.

The bubble insanity, doesn't have a fucking thing to do with developers getting access to cheap land, so they can stay in business.

Anonymous said...

With no limits on land usage, we'd have neither problem 1 or 2!


*

We have fucking UGB, and no matter how much you hate it, its not going away.

To suggest that Bend would NOT have become the MOST over-priced shit-hole in America if we didn't have UGB is revisionism.

The reason Bend became the MOST over-priced shithole is because.

1.) The city pr machine over-marketed bend
2.) easy money
3.) everybody and his dog came here to get 30%/yr for doing nuttin,

When money was easy, nobody seemed to care how much land cost.

Now we have real estate paralysis every two bit whore in Bend is trying to figure out how to stay in Business, go fuck yourself.

If you want cheap land, go build in Burns.

Anonymous said...

. Hence the arrival of Pahlisch in 2002.

*

Timmy, does your mother know your up this late.

First of ALL pahlisch homes is pdx company thats been around forever, in 2002 every fucking builder in Oregon bought land in Bend, because from 1998 bend homes prices were the fastest growing in the state, and also every fucking mutual fund bout CACB.

By 2006 it was game over, and every fucking developer in Oregon was trying to DUMP their fucking Bend subdivision, and every fucking mutual fund was dumping their CACB,because the Bend con-artist bubble was over.

If your FUCKING pahlishshitlick whores want fucking land in bend, why don't they buy one of the 100's of wholesale subdivisions for sale in Bend?

The reason, of course is everone wants raw land, because that is where the profit is to be found.

The fact is we UGB, its 40 years old, not going to go away, and most raw land in town is gone.

In summary its time for YOU and pahlishshitlipsuckup to go to burns.

Timothy said...

>>That statement from you proves once and for all either your don't get it, or your a complete fucking idiot.

Or I was just following the train of thought being put forward to its wishful conclusion.

People always want these deserts to spread out in every direction like they were able to build out farm country in Jersey and Pennsylvania and Ohio and Illinois.

But the desert isn't old eastern farmland. Building in the desert is stupid. You only do it in places where money comes out of your ears.

In the middle east, thanks to oil. And in Vegas, thanks to gambling.

Anonymous said...

Tim, Pahlisch came to bend in 2003, and left his 22 years in the valley, and his 1200 beaverton crap-shacks because he liked the wild-west atmosphere of bend, aka developers ruled the fucking roost, and he could get shit done, ... well he got his way, they all got their way, today they run city hall, but now they're at the end of their fucking rope, and they want help from the people of Bend, read this carefully. Pahlisch was right first time, Moving his OPERATION to Bend never made economic sense, one more fucking amenity parasite bites the fucking dust. Timmy pahlisch go fuck yourself.

***

Friday, March 7, 2003
Homebuilder leaves valley for Bend area
Portland Business Journal - by Heidi J. Stout Business Journal

Ask Dennis Pahlisch why he moved his home, his family and his business from the Willamette Valley to Central Oregon.

Then have a seat. His answer might take a while.

After building more than 1,200 homes in the Sunset Corridor and West Linn, and spending most of the last three years building nearly 300 homes in Corvallis, Pahlisch decided to move his 22-year-old building business to Bend.

He has a million reasons for making the move, including the beauty and climate of Oregon's high desert, easy access to hunting and sports, and the desire to unite three generations in one place.

"Bend has a pioneering spirit that I like," Pahlisch said. After his longtime business partner Mark Nielsen died in an avalanche in 2000, "I thought, 'Either I'm in a rut or I'm on the right path.' I thought, 'If we can, let's live where we want to live.' "

So Pahlisch launched a new era for his company, joined by his three sons and their growing families. In Pahlisch Homes' new Bend office, which opened for business Jan. 3, four Pahlisches are currently working—Dennis, two sons and a daughter-in-law—and her baby Pahlisch is on the way. Pahlisch's third son will join the company full time after college.

"Economics would say to stay in the valley—we could have been more profitable there," said Pahlisch, whose surname is pronounced "polish."

"Personal choice led us to Bend, but now that we're here, business really keeps us in Bend."

Pahlisch believes his company policy of offering extensive warranties and strong homeowners' associations will get him through tough times. He's also banking on continued low interest rates, which has prompted first-time home buyers to flock to the market, fueling sales in the $140,000 to $200,000 price range.

As a new company in Bend, Pahlisch Homes is building $140,000 to $250,000 homes, often mixed in the same neighborhood. This price point is significantly lower than Pahlisch's Willamette Valley projects, where it sold custom and production-built homes for as much as $500,000.

Anonymous said...

Pahlisch believes his company policy of offering extensive warranties and strong homeowners' associations will get him through tough times. He's also banking on continued low interest rates, which has prompted first-time home buyers to flock to the market, fueling sales in the $140,000 to $200,000 price range.

*

Pahlisch shit-shacks in bend originally did go for $200k, and they got up to $450k, and now today they're back to $200k, and most certainly they'll soon be back to $140k,

How affordable do they have to be before you get the balls to buy one?

Timothy said...

And can't ONE of you get a name besides Anonymous?

Timothy said...

For me, it's not the price, it's the direction of the prices. I already said that. It's opportunity cost.

Anonymous said...

strong homeowners' associations will get him through tough times. He's also banking on continued low interest rates, which has prompted first-time home buyers to flock to the market

*

Well he copied brooks nothing stronger than a fucking ccr that will not let you hang laundry,

Note the word 'banking' the low interest is-was such a good enough sucker play to draw in newbie suckers you could BANK on it, at least the fucking PDX biz journal talks the fucking talk.

They flocked, and flocked, and old Pahlisch couldn't build them fast enough so the fucking price went up, and up, ...

This is why homes are NO longer affordable, but then guess what, now interest rates are high, and the homes went above $400k, which is jumbo and now you cannot get a jumbo loan which means that there are NO buyers.

Pahlisch is fucking bankrupt, and is fucked, and he is-was right, moving to bend was a bad fucking idea.

Anonymous said...

For me, it's not the price, it's the direction of the prices. I already said that. It's opportunity cost.

*

You like to use big fucking words, but the fact is this shit is always very simple.

Right now everyone is afraid, and those that can sell will sell for very little, by the time your "opportunity' comes around, and you see it, so will every other dork, and then there will be no opportunity.

Fear is not going to get any better than right now.

Timothy said...

>>Fear is not going to get any better than right now.

Oh I think it will get much worse.

And even if prices have bottomed, I think they'll stay down here for a while. I don't think I have to worry about missing anything at all.

Timothy said...

Tomorrow morning the WSJ will report on our buddies at UBS...

UBS to report large loss from fixed-income unit.

Anonymous said...

"Timmy, does your mother know your up this late."

She doesn't care! After homework I can play on the computer as long as I like! (except I have to search only with SafeSearch, which keeps all the fun stuff away).

"FUCK YOU"

How rude! You could have least left it uncapitalized! Not all of us see the need for such vulgarity!

*

People of the world .... just so you know, there are lots of positive things happening in Bend!

There are many nice people here! We don't always go around capitalizing four-letter words!

We get a lot of sunshine and you can live close to wilderness! Have your kids ever seen a hawk before, California people? Do you want them to grow up without seeing one?

We've got good deals on houses and on condos (some age-restricted, some not) if you look carefully!

While the short run economic outlook is uncertain, the state's Urban Growth Boundary will keep prices high in the long run! Please plan to stay for at least 10 years!

Please come see Bend for yourself! Don't be overbiased by this negative-sounding blog! Most everyone is boozed up - hence the long rants!

(oh - I just discovered I'm using exclamation marks instead of periods .... I guess I inherited that from mother. She always uses exclamation points because it makes her sentences seem more lively. I guess I like it too.)


P.S. Timothy, I like to go "anonymous" so that they all think that I'm you!

Realtor/Builder said...

Fear is not going to get any better than right now.
*****

If FEAR was a “Marathon” (which it will be in this economic cycle) this town is just beginning to stretch. End of October the long race will begin. AND WE ARE NOT READY.
The RE crew, builders and developers in this town are still in denial. All the 30-40 something families in NWX that bought post 2004, seem to think they can rent their home out for the winter and the market will come back. Fear is just beginning to set in, you may smell it because you’re smart enough to be on this blog. More than likely you own multiple pieces of property or make a living selling it- the physiological unwillingness to look at what is happening understandable, but it is time to wake up.
Not sure if anyone has run a marathon unprepared before, but one two things happens..... 1. You don’t finish 2. You finish, but feel like such complete shit you can never run again.

The fucking bubbleheads on this blog are right.

Anonymous said...

I am repulsed by the negativity and vulgarity on this blog. Yet I keep coming back.

Why am I attracted to observations so vile and upsetting?

Is it that I lack for stimuli in my own life?

*

Some say this blog only hastens the demise of Bend’s economy. Some say this blog is easy to find, and that Californians read this and stay the heck away.

To this I say – let them read it!

Indeed, let the whole world read it!

Let us bare ourselves before the world! Hide nothing about our situation!

Do not be embarrassed by cars upon blocks in front yards – they’re here! Do not be dismayed by FSBO and rental signs five to a house.

Flipped-over yard boats and sewage oversupply are our friends, not our enemies!

After all, isn’t it better to rip the bandaid off quickly than to tear it off slowly?

Won’t pretending that things are swell just prolong our pain and suffering?

Let us covenant to tell the world that Bend is “going to hell,” ghastly as it sounds.

Let the bidding wars begin. Offer a free appliance and auto-four-wheeler child conveyance with your house for sale on the market. Put in the sod and sprinklers for free. Throw in the furniture if you've got some. Do not spare anyone of our desperation.

Let the prices plummet -- the developers will run away; the builders will go back to rainy valleys, and a new wave of California people will move to get the deal of the century.

All will be fresh and new, and all will be ours again.

Anonymous said...

Let the prices plummet -- the developers will run away; the builders will go back to rainy valleys, and a new wave of California people will move to get the deal of the century.

*

Cali's bought second homes in Bend because they thought they were going to get rich, NO cali has moved to bend, or intends to move to bend.

Bend City Hall expedited the construction of 24 controversial an illegal ( Intl Golf non-proliferation act ) golf courses.

This brought cali tourists, who then bought time-shares.

The golf-courses are currently imploding, BT, ... Soon NO tourists will come to bend.

All existing homes will go to seed in next five years.

Nobody is coming to Bend, because there are NO jobs here.

The developers cannot go back to the Willamette valley, they'll simply go to hell.

Anonymous said...

Do not be embarrassed by cars upon blocks in front yards – they’re here! Do not be dismayed by FSBO and rental signs five to a house.

Flipped-over yard boats and sewage oversupply are our friends, not our enemies!

*

FUCK YOU BITCH, the yard cars, and yard boats were here before you bitch builders/developers wondered over the fucking cascade pass.

Bend Economy Man said...

-

Another corpse on the Bust-o-Meter pile: the huge Yarrow development (if one unsold house on 900 acres can be called "development").

"Madras would double with new community, but no one's buying yet"

You might think, hey, that's pretty unusual for The Bulletin to say "no one's buying" in a headline. But this time it is LITERALLY true. In a 900-acre subdivision (streets and roundabouts already built) that's supposed to have 1700 houses, one house has been built. One. Built and not sold.

One more massive "ghost development" with streets and tumbleweeds but no people. Like IronHorse in Prineville. Click on this map of Ironhorse and take a look at how much empty space (streets laid, plots platted) there is - ONLY THE ORANGE part is actual homesites, and the rest is rockchuck habitat.

Gotta be trippy to live there!

Anonymous said...

Fear is just beginning to set in, you may smell it because you’re smart enough to be on this blog.

*

Let's review the chronology.

1.) 1998 bend starts moving up, reference point $120k for nice home on westside

2.) national REIT identify bend as hot market, everybody and his dog starts bidding on bend, Pahlisch moves ops to bend, ...

3.) Greed hits max in 2004, the morons start bidding on bend, easy-money, nuttin down, interest only, 1998 home @ $120k now $350k

4.) The Pro's start selling in 2006 , all mutual funds with a dick between their legs DUMP CACB, fear has begun for the big boys. Developers start trying to dump sub-divisions wholesale. 1998 home @ $120k now $480k ( ASK )

5.) 2007 the BULL starts telling the peasants the party is over, FEAR has begun, building supply firms shut down mills. Feb 2007 MTG shuts down the easy-money MORON program. JUMBO is dead, which means that ALL +$400k transactions in BEND cease. ( 1998 home @ $120k now back to $240k and falling )

6.) 2008 the foreclosures start, the bleeding causes bankruptcy's, FEAR is persuasive, the BIG boyz start moving back in to buy shit for pennys on the dollar.

Anonymous said...

Bem, I think we can all agree that who ever invested in Madras was crazy, but it was Bend funny, they invested in Prineville as well.

Everybody believed the myth, IHTBYB calls it kool-aid, but everyone really thought that everyone would move to central-oregon. We know there's no jobs here, and madras, is just plain weird weather, and the smoke all summer. Sheeeeeet? What were they thinking.

Good to hear that Yarrow is dead, another sub-division un-saleable even wholesale.

Bend Economy Man said...

-

For those of you who think I'm referring to "streets and tumbleweeds" metaphorically, take a look at the IronHorse listings below. For those of you not in the Central Oregon area, yes, we really do have tumbleweeds around here!

1400 NE Rhoden St, $269,900

778 NE Whistle Wy, $352,900

780 NE Union Lp, $276,680

775 NE Whistle Wy, $261,500

These places look like 1930s Dust Bowl, Grapes of Wrath times. Like a tornado's gonna come pick up these places and take them to Munchkinland. Like they'll have 8-foot snow drifts against the windward side of the house in winter. I mean, how the hell do you keep your car clean when you're surrounded by hundreds of acres of dirt and dust?

Anonymous said...

Let the prices plummet -- the developers will run away; the builders will go back to rainy valleys, and a new wave of California people will move to get the deal of the century.

( Bend Bust did not write the above, but he'll respond, note any bitch is welcome to use the "*" format )

The prices will not plummet, they'll fall to stabilization, which is what I have said forever. Stabilization is 4X, they may fall below, but they'll stabilize at $160k, for the dumb fucking flippers that bought at $500k, and expected a million, a 70% loss can be considered a plummet, but remember that was just one year gain during the great bend bubble.

Cali's will NOT move back, when the smoke clears and history is correctly interpreted and this city goes bankrupt ( soon ), and the word is already down there that Oregon has NO jobs. Cali's did come here to vacation, and some con-artists downtown sold them time-shares and condos, for 'investment'.

It's over, easy money is over, now with Jumbo Dead, there is NO way to even buy a home in Bend.

Literally nobody in cali has a down payment, homes aren't selling in cali, now that you have to have 20% down, and good credit 90% of BUYERS are GONE.

*

The reason for this blog is to debate the facts of the bend bubble hysteria. We just call them as we see them.

Anonymous said...

For those of you not in the Central Oregon area, yes, we really do have tumbleweeds around here!

*

Looks like xmas valley to me. Bem, do you ever go to 'Christmas Valley' and see what they did down there?? In the 80's they were selling 50 acres for $10k, and still are, supposed to have been the next Sunriver.

A few years ago they did this in Palmdale, Ca built 1,000's of crap-shacks out in the desert, but down there at least you can drive 2-4 hrs to work in LA each way. In central oregon, what the hell are you going to do to pay the MTG?

We all can't work for a security company in Redmond, and sleep in Madras, and patrol in Bend. Can we??

Anonymous said...

. I mean, how the hell do you keep your car clean when you're surrounded by hundreds of acres of dirt and dust?

*

The CCR's say you must keep your car in the garage.

Anonymous said...

Using the bend-bust RE math-engine for ... yarrow


1400 NE Rhoden St, $269,900

778 NE Whistle Wy, $352,900

780 NE Union Lp, $276,680

775 NE Whistle Wy, $261,500

I get $120K +- $20k,

Negatives: mongolian mcMansion desert subdivision, ... no trees ( shade ), smoke all summer, smoky frozen dirty low hanging fog all winter

Positives: None

*

Summary, they'll sell $120k +- $20k, and they'll still make money on the house, the land didn't cost shit, thus they'll not get rich. Too bad there's no margin for RE commission.

Anonymous said...

Boss Hogg Hollern is so fucked, this is way worse than the timber recession.

This is all borrowed money to pay for the infrastructure on these worthless lots.

Brooks is FUCKED, bankruptcy soon, anyone want to place bets? Break it up and sell piecemeal??

*

Iron Horse Prineville :: Iron Horse Living :: ABOUT BROOKS RESOURCES
IronHorse was created by Brooks Resources Corporation, a local company with an established history of commitment to thoughtful, quality real estate .

Anonymous said...

Just how fucking fucked is Brooks Resources??

Where the fuck is the bitch that says there's no land to build on in Central Oregon??

Anybody want to buy sub-divisions wholesale for penny's on the fucking dollar??

** BROOKS is FUCKED, and FUCKED by boss HOGG HOLLERN

Yarrow Development Groundbreaking
Yarrow, a new 900-acre mixed-use community on the east side of Madras, ... Madras Land Development Company, a joint venture of Brooks Resources Corporation,

Anonymous said...

One more massive "ghost development" with streets and tumbleweeds but no people.


I agree that NWXC aka Brooks Smart-Growth role model of Bend is a ghost town. It seems that everything that Brooks touches dies.
This bitch spent a fortune on Bend PR&Marketing, and developed "smart growth".

How fucking smart does Brooks look now??

Is there one fucking project that has made a nickel?? Did they huckster investor money? You know there is many 'brooks' investments houses in Bend, you know there are tons of investors that are going to eat shit. This is why Brooks is composed of 100's of LLC's.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

FEAR is persuasive

True. It's also pervasive.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Where the fuck is the bitch that says there's no land to build on in Central Oregon??

Uh oh. Someone sounds a little cranky-wanky! Now, I don't want to hear another word until you've had your morning eye-opener... the bloody Mary mix is down under the sink next to the bleach, which is also in a bloody Mary mix bottle which the wife has also dyed red... for your convenience.

Now you just scoot!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

What is the full monty on Yarrow? Anyone got a copy/paste they can run on that story? :-)

I like how they claim this was all part of the Master Plan... right in the headline.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

These places look like 1930s Dust Bowl, Grapes of Wrath times. Like a tornado's gonna come pick up these places and take them to Munchkinland.

Not only that, but they are charging a bundle for them! That one for $352K has got clones all over Bend. Hell, you could probably get it for less here.

And thems Working Man Homes... Real People are going to move into those places, not retirees. Where they gonna work?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

You like to use big fucking words, but the fact is this shit is always very simple.

Right now everyone is afraid, and those that can sell will sell for very little, by the time your "opportunity' comes around, and you see it, so will every other dork, and then there will be no opportunity.

Fear is not going to get any better than right now.


YEA TIM! You, with your "thinking", and "words". To hell with that! Let's go get us some guns & liquor AND START SHOOTIN'!

The FEAR AIN'T GETTING ANY BETTER! THAT means BUY! No wait. THAT means SELL! No wait. OK, so the FEAR, plus "words"... OK, cross multiply "opportunity cost"... OK, did I say "FUCK" yet? OK... hold on, I'll get it... OK, make fun of Tims Mom plus the uppity, OK, incoherent rant where I tell myself to go piss up a rope then fuck myself...

GIMME MY GUN!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

BendBB looks down again...

Warning: Unknown: failed to open stream: No such file or directory in Unknown on line 0

Fatal error: Unknown: Failed opening required '/var/www/html/www/stats/counter.php' (include_path='.:/usr/local/php5/lib/php') in Unknown on line 0

Timothy said...

>>Boss Hogg Hollern is so fucked, this is way worse than the timber recession.

Yes. Yes it is, because it's not a local phenomenon this time. Brooks has managed to hitch along inside the biggest asset bubble ever.

It's the culmination of a series of rolling bubbles.

I don't know where we go from here, exactly, but in housing, it's sure as hell not "up."

Timothy said...

>>BendBB looks down again...

The perils of a free host.

I want to set up a phpbb board, just to fill out my web resume. Is informe the only free choice (besides my own server, of course)?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Yes. Yes it is, because it's not a local phenomenon this time. Brooks has managed to hitch along inside the biggest asset bubble ever.

I wasn't here for the timber bust, but I can't imagine that timber was as pervasive an economic force as RE is now in Cent OR. Extend the "money multiplier" effect out to 2 or 3 tiers... and you have 100% of the local economy.

RE brokers, builders, subcontractors, MTG brokers, suppliers, rehab guys, title co, paving, furniture, city fees... my God, that's just top tier money. The money THOSE people spend, supplies restaurants, grocery stores, auto sellers, clothing, gas, internet, utilities... THAT's Second tier. THAT right there is 75% of all goods & services here... at least.

We're so fuckin' doomed. Hitched our wagon to a star, and man did we kick ass for awhile. Now we're going to pay. I doubt we'll EVER recover in our lifetimes. Fuck... we'll have Yarrow, IronHorse, Ashwood-5000, Waterpark, infill Gold Rush whacky-shack dogshit quality dogging us for a generation. We'll be an entire town faced with the "tear down, or live in it" choice, cuz the structures will be dogshit in 5 years... but not quite dogshit enough to tear down. So they'll stay up, and this town will just look like shit. Mountains, views... hey Great! But your immediate view will be of 20 shoddily built shitholes, and there are 1,000 towns in Montana where you can get that at 1/10th the price of Bend.

Abandoned ghost-town full of dogcrap quality shit homes no one wants. But, we only had 995ac left, and the City didn't give a shit so every bare inch was packed with non-code-meeting pieces of crap. Good thinking.

Timothy said...

Just grabbed my WSJ and Bulletin off the porch.

The Madras article is front page top right!

It's OK to make fun of Madras, I guess, because they are distant enough to make a safe target.

Anonymous said...

Literally nobody in cali has a down payment

Just because you repeat the same crap over and over again does not make it true...

The fact is that tons of people in Cali have huge amounts of cash saved. Basically, anyone who didn't buy and has been renting during the bubble has 100 -200K in ready cash and that is for the working stiffs, nobody special. I have two friends in Cali and they are both in this situation. One of them is thinking of moving to PDX.

Anonymous said...

One of them is thinking of moving to PDX.


You'll have to go up to Portland to hate them when they move. Everybody knows you move to Bend only if you don't need money. The no jobs thing is well known.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

anyone who didn't buy and has been renting during the bubble has 100 -200K in ready cash and that is for the working stiffs, nobody special. I have two friends in Cali and they are both in this situation.

Ummmm... no. Because you have TWO (Whoa!) friends in this position, you think the World is overrun with RICH RENTERS? I know of NO ONE in this position. I actually do know many, MANY renters who do not have a snowballs chance in hell of buying a home in the next 10-15 years, because they are up to their eyeballs in credit card, student loan, car, toy & other debts.

Renters w/ $200K? Uh, I'll bet my debt-laden poor friends outnumber your wealthy renter friends 100:1.

Timothy said...

>>Because you have TWO (Whoa!) friends in this position, you think the World is overrun with RICH RENTERS? I know of NO ONE in this position.

Hey, you know me. Kinda.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Hey, you know me. Kinda.

You rich?

Can I have some money?

Anonymous said...

Renters w/ $200K? Uh, I'll bet my debt-laden poor friends outnumber your wealthy renter friends 100:1.

Seriously, this savings is pretty normal among the people I know. But then again, most of my friends work real jobs and save money. None of this stupid $7 per hour metric. I'm sorry but you must be a fool to work for that. I'd move in a heartbeat if that was the only opportunity available to me. Nobody I know would work for less than three times that and most of my friends are closer to $50 per hour jobs. Hey, we're all 30 something riding out the housing bubble. Not everyone who "could by, did buy", that's not true. This blog is so incestuous that its regular members have convinced themselves that no one has any money, there are no jobs that pay more than $7 per hour etc and everybody is dirt poor. I'll leave now and let you fire off a few knee-jerk comments so you can safely return to your own "reality" bubble.

Timothy said...

>>Can I have some money?

You know me better than to ask.

I'm not rich, but I have enough for a huge down payment.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


You know me better than to ask.


YOU should know me better than THAT.

Again: Can I have some money?

None of this stupid $7 per hour metric. I'm sorry but you must be a fool to work for that. I'd move in a heartbeat if that was the only opportunity available to me.

Not from around here are ya.

This blog is so incestuous that its regular members have convinced themselves...

See, there's really nothing to say, cuz you have your FRIENDS that are rich, and you are probably doing OK, and you cannot identify with anyone else in any other sort of situation, that you'll be convinced of nothing.

We might be incestuous, but you are myopic. We're not talking ourselves into the reality of terrible local wages... it's just a fact.

Where are you? CA? If so then your knowledge of local conditions is zilch.

Timothy said...

Here's a thought.

For the last two years, being in RE has pretty much sucked.

But just about everything else has been stellar. Commodities (of just about every sort), energy, global stocks, domestic stocks, gold.

You can't just look at RE to see how you're doing. You have to look at alternatives.

I really don't know what happens next, but what an incredible change from what came before. Failed flippers must just hate hearing about gold and stocks hitting highs.

Anonymous said...

You can't just look at RE to see how you're doing. You have to look at alternatives.



Timothy, the debate is about RE, we know your not interested. I have an idea for you, why don't you shove a tampon up your ass and wait until you get toxic shock syndrome?

Anonymous said...

I'm not rich, but I have enough for a huge down payment.

*

Then just fucking do-it, you have a down, and your credit score is 800? and you have a income?

THEN BUY A FUCKING HOUSE,

Anonymous said...

Ummmm... no. Because you have TWO (Whoa!) friends in this position, you think the World is overrun with RICH RENTERS? - IHTBYB

*

Don't waste your time with timmy-twat and all the bendbb hairless metro-sexual men of Bend.

They're all in their 30's and know everything, they all rent, they all make $200k/yr, and have $200k in savings, they all have perfect credit, and secret jobs.

Everyone over at bendbb is FULL of fucking shit, my proudest day was when they banned me ages ago.

Every fucking thing that timmy-twat types is bullshit.

Anonymous said...

Just because you repeat the same crap over and over again does not make it true...

The fact is that tons of people in Cali have huge amounts of cash saved.

*

I have a 1/2 a dozen relatives in cali, and they're all starving, they're all saying the same thing.

"No buyers have a down, and you can no longer buy without a down"

In my book if you don't have a down, your not a buyer.

Sure of course there are some buyers in cali with a down, but they're far and few between, just by the basic metric that the average savings rate of an american citizen since 1998 has been negative.

I'm not going to try to explain to you what that means, because I know that you are a fucking moron.

Anonymous said...

But just about everything else has been stellar. Commodities (of just about every sort), energy, global stocks, domestic stocks, gold.

You can't just look at RE to see how you're doing. You have to look at alternatives.

I really don't know what happens next, but what an incredible change from what came before. Failed flippers must just hate hearing about gold and stocks hitting highs.


This is what I'm talking about. There are TONS of people riding this out and some of them have made an absolute killing in the markets. For instance, I have a friend who bought lots of Google stock near the IPO has been invested in the market the entire time of the RE bubble. He does not own a house, but he isn't working anymore. The housing bubble is being watched. At a certain point some of these people are going to decide its time and they will pounce with huge loads of cash in hand. How many of them will land in Bend? Hard to say, since the lack of high paying jobs here is indeed a big downer.

Timothy said...

>>THEN BUY A FUCKING HOUSE,

No, no, no. I wouldn't have money if I made bad choices, would I?

Tying my money up in a non-performing asset would be...stupid.

Anonymous said...

The fact is that tons of people in Cali have huge amounts of cash saved
*

I would agree in La Jolla, Palm Springs, ... Santa Barbara.

But guess fucking what?? We're talking about Sacramento, Riverside, working mens towns,

Real Estate closings have imploded now that you can't borrow unless you have a down payment.

Most cali's have NO savings. Most americans have NO savings.

Anonymous said...

Ok, its a done deal timmy-twat is NEVER going to buy a fucking house, now lets get back to the bubble debate.

Timothy said...

>>Every fucking thing that timmy-twat types is bullshit.

Nope. You're wrong.

I've been consistent and honest since I started posting on the old blog way more than a year ago.

I moved to Bend. I sold my old house for a nice gain, but not one I had to worry about capital gains taxes.

Did it make sense to buy in Bend? I thought not. Prices were stupid.

Lots of people told me to buy. They were wrong. Just like you're wrong now when you say I should buy.

You just want it to be a lie. But it's not. I'm waiting and watching until it makes sense.

Anonymous said...

I have a friend who bought lots of Google stock near the IPO ... will pounce with huge loads of cash in hand. How many of them will land in Bend?

*

Holy shit, now we're going to IPO's sell your fucking Bend RE, and put all your money into google IPO's, talking about a fucking path ruination.

Timmy-Tway "FUCK YOU AND YOUR STOCK MARKET".

Timothy said...

>>Ok, its a done deal timmy-twat is NEVER going to buy a fucking house, now lets get back to the bubble debate.

If only there was a debate? It's not a debate, it's a debacle. You guys are just in an infinite loop that is so lame that it wouldn't even make a good Next generation episode.

Pleas,e do continue to post actual information about the disaster unfolding, but don't pretend you guys are having a DEBATE!

Anonymous said...

Timmy Twat doesn't give a fuck about the RE debate, or the bubble, he just wants to talk about how smart he it, and how much money he has in the bank, and how many friends he has in cali, and how fucking lonely it is to be a fucking metro-sexual in his 30's in Bend oregon.

Anonymous said...

What a bunch of financial geniuses you all are. I mean, the preoccupation with $7 hour jobs and aversion to the market has made you all rich I'm sure. I give one example and you take it out of context, congratulations.

Timothy said...

Anyone who pays attention knows you're just spouting. I would LOVE to talk about the bubble. You just are just distracting from it. You post more about your perverted views of people than you do information. So shut the hell up about your stupid theories about other people and say something someone can care about.

Don't let your misery keep you from being interesting, please.

Anonymous said...

It's really nice when that cunt bendbb has his fucking site working, then all these dweebs can hang out together over at bendbb.

Every fucking time informe.com goes down they all come over here to talk about themselves.

The big fucking difference between timmy-twat/bendbb and bend-bubble is that we're older, and we have been in Bend a long time and seen many cycles here.

Timmy-Twats only reference point is that one of his metro-sexual butt-fucking playmates bought some fucking google @ IPO, what the fuck does this have to do with Bend???

Timothy said...

What dos anything you're saying now have to do with the bubble? I defy you to provide some information. What's the matter? You have none today?

Anonymous said...

. I mean, the preoccupation with $7 hour jobs and aversion to the market has made you all rich I'm sure.

*

It's a historic reference point, and if you haven't been here 30+ years, it probably don't mean shit to you.

p.s. and nobody here was ever lucky enough to have one $7/hr job, you had to have two to make in Bend.

Timothy said...

All you want to do is prove that you're so old that the parts of the brain that inhibit cursing and racism from coming out of your mouth are shrinking.

Anonymous said...

I think from now on we need to have a signal on the bend-bubble-2 site that has 'red tag alert' bend-bb is DOWN.

That way us old farts can stay away for today, its fairly obvious that the kittens hang out over at bendbb, and when its down, they come over here to fuck with the old dogs.

Timmy-Twat your pussy is more rancid than sally's.

Anonymous said...

You post more about your perverted views of people than you do information

I'm not Timmy and don't even know the guy but he makes more sense than some idiots here that claim to be Bend's royal blood. It took you guys to create Sally because you are her mirror image, nothing more.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Tying my money up in a non-performing asset would be...stupid.

HEY! Are you calling me STUPID!

Welp, I suppose as long as I get that money, I'm fine with being called whatever you want.

Ahhhhhh Timmy. Why you answer to taunts... dunno. I mean if it regards tampons, twats, and toxic shock... is there really a cogent answer? I can only hope you're actually laughing as you answer some of this crazy shit...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

parts of the brain that inhibit cursing and racism from coming out of your mouth are shrinking

That's called The Dick Zone.

Ya stupid motherfucker.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Timmy-Twats only reference point is that one of his metro-sexual butt-fucking playmates bought some fucking google @ IPO, what the fuck does this have to do with Bend???

The fact that I am chuckling at this sort of crazy ass shit is just disturbing.

Timothy said...

Ah, Realtors. So nice until you put that "anonymous" nametag on them, then they get all bitey and hair-pully, yelling at you to buy houses to bail them out. :-)

And don't worry, Paul. It's too sunny of a day for me to have anything on but a big happy grin.

It would be nice if everything could just work out for everyone, but that's not how the world works.

It's going to be an ugly winter around here.

You can see how angry some people are already.

Timothy said...

>>Timmy-Twats only reference point is that one of his metro-sexual butt-fucking playmates bought some fucking google @ IPO, what the fuck does this have to do with Bend???

Why do I get pulled into these stupid things, anyway? Just because I use my name instead of "anonymous?" Pay attention to who says what. It wasn't my friend that bought google at ipo.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Why do I get pulled into these stupid things, anyway?

Paul-doh's Bubble Blog Corollary:

The usage of the terms

TWAT

TAMPON


and

TOXIC SHOCK SYNDROME

approach 100% of each comment as a threads age approaches 1 week.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And don't worry, Paul. It's too sunny of a day for me to have anything on but a big happy grin.

I know.. that +194 DJIA has nothing to do with it...

Anonymous said...

any thoughts on http://bestcities.milkeninstitute.org/bc179_2007.html which was recently released?

Timothy said...

>>I know.. that +194 DJIA has nothing to do with it...

I don't think you're supposed to talk about that on your blog.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I don't think you're supposed to talk about that on your blog.

I don't know if you've looked recently, but there's a guy on here who is talking about shoving a tampon up your YOUR rectum, so that you die of toxic shock.

I think a foray into the stock market will be OK.

Anonymous said...

milkeninstitute.org

*

Michael Milken Poster boy for Bend, a boy only timmy-twats mother could love.

Anonymous said...

I know.. that +194 DJIA has nothing to do with it...

*

Dow is skyrocketing because we're going to NUKE IRAN, see www.debka.com,

This is not a good thing for the world, even though it is a good thing for conservative day-traders who rent in bend.

Anonymous said...

TWAT

TAMPON

and

TOXIC SHOCK SYNDROME

*

Is timmy in the hospital again??

Anonymous said...

I'm not Timmy and don't even know the guy but he makes more sense than some idiots here that claim to be Bend's royal blood. It took you guys to create Sally because you are her mirror image, nothing more.

*

The only royal blood in Bend, is that of boss hogg hollern.

Anonymous said...

Let's just pray to BEM, that come 5AM, he posts some insight from the BULL, and tomorrow is a new day, and we can debate the BendBubble.

In the meantime did everyone enjoy their fucking monday night happy hour?

Remember sally and the mickey, well tonight we did the same to timmy, sometime tomorrow AM, he's going to wake up in a trailer in La Pines.

Anonymous said...

Serious SHIT BOYZ, no more timmy-twat non-sense, time to put back on our Bend mickey-mouse gear.

Nazi Boss Hollern is being visted tomorrow AM by the real Nazi's germany, ACHTUNG.

The children of HITLER are none to happy with boss hogg hollern's 23 year rule of Bend.

The shit will hit the fucking fan tomorrow.

SIEG HEIL, HEIL HOLLERN, ...

http://www.ktvz.com/Global/story.asp?S=7154355

"This is such an opportunity for them to be a leader," she said. "A win-win deal. Right now, there's a TV crew flying out here to interview me tomorrow from Germany. It's, ‘Hello, wake up - this is bigger than Bend, Oregon, guys.'"

Anonymous said...

First came sally, then came love, then came Hollern in the baby-carriage.

This clothes-line story, is going to put Bend, on the fucking map. Brooks is pending bankruptcy, Rome Burns and Nero fiddles, fuck Hollern is the joke of the world. Pity the fuckers who have their life savings invested in Brooks Resources.

****

Brooks plans clothesline 'research'; critic dismayed

Oct 1, 2007 05:15 PM
Top Video
Clothesline flap puts Awbrey Butte in spotlight (9/25)
Awbrey Butte resident Susan Taylor has challenged unscreened clothesline ban in homeowner association rules
Awbrey Butte resident Susan Taylor has challenged unscreened clothesline ban in homeowner association rules
Also on KTVZ.com
Bend clothesline clash claims global attention

'Pretty sad,' Susan Taylor says of response

By Barney Lerten, KTVZ.COM

Bend developer Brooks Resources Corp. said Monday it must conduct more research before deciding how to deal with a controversial neighborhood rule that requires clotheslines to be screened from neighbors' view. That stand drew a sigh of frustration from the resident whose fight to dry her laundry outdoors has drawn worldwide attention.

Brooks Resources Chairman Mike Hollern issued a statement defending the firm's "long-standing commitment to the environment," but saying the development firm must find a way to encourage energy conservation while still honoring "our 23-year-old commitment to more than 800 homeowners who agreed to the current" set of rules, requiring that such clotheslines be screened from neighbors view.

"Pretty sad," Susan Taylor told KTVZ.COM. "I was hoping Brooks would take a leading role in the community and the nation by changing the standard from screening to supporting clotheslines, for the greater good of the planet."

"This is such an opportunity for them to be a leader," she said. "A win-win deal. Right now, there's a TV crew flying out here to interview me tomorrow from Germany. It's, ‘Hello, wake up - this is bigger than Bend, Oregon, guys.'"

Taylor said she talked to Kirk Schueler, Brooks president, and "was willing to work with him to make this a win-win situation."

"He said they wanted to keep a ‘screening element,'" as the current conditions, covenants and restrictions (CC&Rs) state.

"Wow, they think the ‘look' is more important than the future for our kids and grandkids in our efforts to conserve energy and decrease greenhouse emissions," Taylor said. "No wonder this country is in such sad shape. ... I'm having a great deal of difficulty - as is the rest of the world - understanding this point of view."

---

Following is the full text of a news release issued Monday afternoon by Brooks Resources Corp. on the recent flap over rules forbidding unscreened clotheslines on Awbrey Butte and objections raised by resident Susan Taylor:

Brooks Resources today announced it will be exploring acceptable solutions to address the issue of screening clothes-drying apparatus on Awbrey Butte.

Mike Hollern, Chairman of Brooks Resources said, "We are looking at ways to honor our 23-year-old commitment to more than 800 homeowners who agreed to the current Conditions, Covenants and Restrictions when they bought their homesites, while also finding ways to support and encourage the practice of saving energy costs through drying laundry outside."

Hollern continued, "As a company, we have a long-standing commitment to the environment. We are all in favor of allowing homeowners to dry laundry outside; the CC&R's simply require that it be screened from view."

Brooks Resources will: continue discussions with the Community Associations Institute based in Alexandria, Georgia; research ways other communities around the nation have dealt with the issue; and seek conceptual design solutions from selected design professionals to find acceptable approaches to screening laundry from view.

Results of the research currently under way will influence Brooks Resources' decision as to whether or not to pursue a homeowners' vote on the matter.

The current Awbrey Butte CC&Rs were recorded in Deschutes County on September 13, 1984. All homeowners who have purchased homesites in Awbrey Butte have agreed to abide by the CC&Rs. They require that "all garbage, trash, cuttings, refuse, garbage and refuse containers, clothes drying apparatus, and other service facilities located on the lot shall be screened from view in a manner approved by Declarant."

About Brooks Resources Corporation

Brooks Resources Corporation, based in Bend, Oregon, is a real estate development company that delivers quality real estate products and services in Central Oregon. With roots in the original 1916 Brooks-Scanlon lumber company that sparked a boom in Bend's growth for the next half century, Brooks Resources is one of the oldest and most respected developers in the area. Offering a diverse choice of premier neighborhoods in Central Oregon, Brooks Resources Corporation is committed to the preservation of natural environment around home sites, positive growth of communities and an active relationship with the communities of Central Oregon.

Its current developments include North Rim on Awbrey Butte, RiverWild at Mount Bachelor Village Resort, Awbrey Park, Century Washington Center, IronHorse, NorthWest Crossing (a joint venture with Tennant Family Limited Partnership) and Yarrow (a joint venture with Eagle Crest and Taylor Northwest). In addition it operates Awbrey Glen Golf Club, Mount Bachelor Village Resort, Botanical Developments, Brooks Resources Realty and is a partner in the Madras Land Development Company which is developing Yarrow. For more information, visit http://www.brooksresources.com/.

Anonymous said...

twat, ... toxic shock syndrome, ...
approach 100% of each comment as a threads age approaches 1 week.

*

Ahh, grasshopper, so this is why you update the main blog weekly??

But today is only monday, perhaps you shouldn't have posted the lead blog on saturday, this may be an ugly week by Wednesday,

Anonymous said...

The tombstone of death follows, note if you don't have a strong stomach stop now, and exit this site.

*

North Rim on Awbrey Butte, RiverWild at Mount Bachelor Village Resort, Awbrey Park, Century Washington Center, IronHorse, NorthWest Crossing (a joint venture with Tennant Family Limited Partnership) and Yarrow (a joint venture with Eagle Crest and Taylor Northwest). In addition it operates Awbrey Glen Golf Club, Mount Bachelor Village Resort, Botanical Developments, Brooks Resources Realty and is a partner in the Madras Land Development Company which is developing Yarrow.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Brooks Resources Corp. said Monday it must conduct more research before deciding how to deal with a controversial neighborhood rule that requires clotheslines to be screened from neighbors' view.

"Research"? This ain't a FUCKIN MOON SHOT. You ain't developing a hydrogen car Brooks. It's a freakin clothesline.

Here's a story about the new president & CEO of the Bend Visitors Bureau:

Doug LaPlaca, 35, who became president and CEO of the Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau on Aug. 6... LaPlaca, whose background includes 112 years as senior director of marketing at Grand Traverse Resort & Spa in Traverse City

112 years... now THAT'S what I call employee loyalty. I don't know though... he's starting to look like a "lifer" with that on the resume...

1895-2007: Director of Marketing

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Brooks Resources will: continue discussions with the Community Associations Institute...

Hey Hollern, why don't you the League of Women Voters, or the United Negro College Fund, or some other irrelevant "INSTITUTE"?

You bitches have too much money...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

BendBB back up...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

This is a snippet about a guy who started a photography business in Bend like 100 years ago:

Roy Van Vleet, a Wisconsin native, came West in the early 1900s and moved to Bend in 1916 to work at the Shevlin-Hixon lumber mill, according to his son, Willmer Van Vleet, of Stayton. In the 1920s, he developed an interest in photography and worked at Elite Studio in Bend, which he eventually purchased. The Depression forced him to close the studio in 1929.

See, "The Depression" didn't even really get going until the 1930's. Stocks tanked in 1929, but the real economy didn't exactly fall apart That Day.

But notice how the Bulletin has to somehow link the closure of a business 80 years ago to circumstances beyond its control, circumstances that really had not happened yet.

That's the Power Of Kool-Aid. Re-write history...

NEVER has a Bend business closed in 100 years because of reasons inherent to Bend!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Thank God our Bend City Council is spending our money wisely:

Bend’s bill for Juniper Utility comes in at $14M; Judgment against the city includes the utility owner’s $1.9 million legal bill

Someone should track down that John Hummel scumbag, disbar his stupid ass and sue him in civil court for being negligent.

$14 million. Totally thrown away FOR NO REASON. Yeah... we'll go bankrupt.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Pending home sales down 6.5% in August


Fewer contracts were being written because of mortgage availability issues," said Lawrence Yun, senior economist for the realtors.
"The volume of activity we're seeing today is below sustainable market fundamentals because some creditworthy people are trying to buy homes but can't because of the credit crunch," he noted.


Note he says volume is "BELOW sustainable fundamentals". WHAT? What the hell does that mean?

Geez... even after firing Lereah, the NAR Kool-Aid Express rolls on....

Timothy said...

What he says: "some creditworthy people are trying to buy homes."

What he means: "People who can't afford homes, but think they can because they could have got teaser loans last year, are foolishly still trying to buy homes."

Timothy said...

>>Still, Lawrence Yun, senior economist at the real estate trade group, said August's problems were worst in expensive areas where borrowers have to take out "jumbo" home loans above $417,000 that can't be sold to government-sponsored mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In those areas, up to 30 percent of signed contracts had fallen through, Yun said.

Ah, life in Jumbo land.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

What he says: "some creditworthy people are trying to buy homes."

What he means:
We're desperately trying to reflate the residential real estate bubble, and resorting to semi-disciplined loan standards IS MAKING IT IMPOSSIBLE!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

In those areas ("expensive areas where borrowers have to take out "jumbo" home loans above $417,000"), up to 30 percent of signed contracts had fallen through...

Prime, numero uno reason Bend RE will fall apart.

Anonymous said...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

BendBB back up...


*

Whoopee, timmy can go home to his mother, no more baby-sitting

Timothy said...

He. Keep on wishing. I've been on this blog just about every day since its inception, and on its predecessor as well. I'm not going anywhere until this massacre is over.

Anonymous said...

Bend’s bill for Juniper Utility comes in at $14M; Judgment against the city includes the utility owner’s $1.9 million legal bill

*

Where did you see that can you post a link. The original figure that I'm aware of was the utility was going to cost $7.5M, and the cost was going to get passed on to existing rate payers elsewhere.

I'm curious how this $14M figure breaks down, and where it came from, I don't get the BULL, so I have to depend on others.

Anonymous said...

Prime, numero uno reason Bend RE will fall apart.

*

That's NOT falling apart, even if Awbrey homes fall below $417K in order to get financing, they're still over-priced.

Anonymous said...

Hola,

My name is pedro, I was at Deschutes last night and met a young stockbroker, actually work at home day-trader.

He said he was on a blog. Does anyone know timmy? I think I'm in love.

Timmy said he was going to the bathroom, but never came back. I waited all night.

Adios, Pedros

Timothy said...

You can see that portion of the article if you search google for "Juniper utility bend". I don't think there's a free way to see the whole article.

Timothy said...

Pedro, you're just like all the other sellers/realtors/mortgage brokers/buidlers, aren't you?

Anonymous said...

Bend’s bill for Juniper Utility comes in at $14M; Judgment against the city includes the utility owner’s $1.9 million legal bill


*

Perhaps that rich 'timmy' can buy a subrscription, and post for us?

Will someone post this??

Pleeeeze??

Anonymous said...

Pedro, you're just like all the other sellers/realtors/mortgage brokers/buidlers, aren't you?


Timmothy, you give me what I want, and I'll give you what you want.
-pedro

Timothy said...

Are you guys here to "debate?" Seems unlikely you'd log on just to act like children.

Looking forward to the awesome debate, guys! Ready...go!

Builder/Realtor said...

I have three questions…

1. Comments on the Milken Institute… what is the story? http://bestcities.milkeninstitute.org/bc179_2007.html
2. What happens when Prices TANK, will Cali’s not then come back and decide this is a great place, especially as boomers have not even begun to peak?
3. If this American Economy really does take a shit….or if there is awesome sort of terrorist attack wouldn’t people decide to move to a place like Bend?
4. If you want to live in a resort town on the West Coast, where do you go? ( FYI..no jobs in Tahoe and no people DO NOT commute to Reno , I do not believe there is a ski hill on the San Juan Islands?
Just some questions, I agree with much of what many of you say, but interested in your comments

mperlat said...

I was a bend resident 2 years ago.Now i live in murrieta cali and am wishing i was back there.Appreciate the comments from all.I have to say cali in trouble in the housing department.Many repo's in my area.I was a renter there but wish i had bought years ago.I know maybe too much personal info but i am new so i thought i would let you know a little about myself.Keep me informed as to bend and the local job outlook.I left for it seemed that without 2 min.wage jobs i could not stay.Do you see any hope for bend without jobs that pay.Sounds like local city government still corrupt as feds.Sorry for that.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Where did you see that can you post a link.

Yeah, it's a subsciption req'd piece on todays Bulletin. I don't subscribe.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Now i live in murrieta cali and am wishing i was back there.

Click your heels together 3 times....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I'm not going anywhere until this massacre is over.

Actually I have willed this blog half to Timmy & half to BendBust, in case I am mowed down in a hail of Realtor gunfire, which is how I expect to go. I'll make you two kids friends if it's the last thing I do!

Builder/Realtor said...

27MLS Data below, this is JUST FOR NW BEND. The active numbers going to be a bit skewed as more then likely most community builders were not posting ACTIVE listings on MLS, However the numbers are still make a statement. First column is TOTAL Active homes on the last day of the month, second column is TOTAL Sold for the month.


ACTIVE SOLD
Apr-06 4 31
May-06 9 31
Jun-06 15 47
Jul-06 23 31
Aug-06 30 39
Sep-06 37 29

Apr-07 143 40
May-07 199 34
Jun-07 249 28
Jul-07 309 21
Aug-07 383 29
Sep-07 444 27

mperlat said...

Wow from here looks like bend is very much in trubble.How could the city have allowed such rampant disregard for homeowners equity.If i owned a home for 5 years or so in bend and watched all the rampant development without regard for home values i would be very upset.All homes suffer for the greed of a few.Lawsuits!!!

Anonymous said...

1/2 acre, single level, large living room, family room w/ NG gas fireplace, large fenced backyard, landscaped w/ water feature. Back bedroom has french doors & access to deck & the water feature. Freshly painted. Hardwood floors. 2 car garage.
*

The above from craigs, I can appreciate a 20K sq-ft of desert, but back bedroom w/ french doors to a water feature and I NO fucking picture. I picture a fucking birdbath, aka an old toilet w/ rain-water, please hire bend-pr to write your copy.

Anonymous said...

Wow I have been wapping the willy for at least a few beer years in Bend, in if I had lost my beerworth in negative beer apreciation I would be so cahllenging the hogworths to decprecate de bend.

It's only de teussdya night, nbut I know s you knows what a bman can da mean bay you a beer?


How goes day peopple hwo cnn lossoe day a mmommay do to the bend real shet marcat? me wov dis fudkin bwog.

hremes,

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

MLS Data below, this is JUST FOR NW BEND

Just so I'm clear, there were 4 active homes in the MLS on Apr 30, 2006 and 31 sales in Apr 2006? That doesn't seem possible. Plus a more than 10X increase in inventory in Sept? I know it's gone way up, but 10 fold+?

Maybe you can clarify this data, cuz I think that I'm getting the wrong idea...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

How could the city have allowed such rampant disregard for homeowners equity.

Oy. Why do I allow myself to be baited by people who don't even know the point of debating this Bubble? WHY!

Nope. Not this time.

NOT



GONNA



DO IT!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Another WHOLOESALE forced liquidation:

$4350000 58 Lot Subdivision

58 Lot approved subdivision, 5.20 Acres total. $75,000 per finished lot - Must be purchased together. Zoned RM. Quiet neighborhood on the northeast side of Bend near parks, schools, retail, restaurants and other residential. Includes 5 Tax Lots: 171228CA 800/1100/1201/1209/1210. Please call listing Broker for more details, Lowes Commercial Properties, 541-312-2113.

8th St & Vail


God help you if you're STUPID enough to pay $4.35MM for 5ac of UNSALABLE BARE LAND. Man, we have got a long, LONG way to go on the downside.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Now here's where we should be:

$120000 3.92 Acre Commercial site in the City of Hines, OR

Commerical acreage located within the city limits. Hines Circle city park is approx. 1/2 mile NW. The Hines business core is less than 1/3 mile West. This site is approx. 1/3 miles W. on HWY 20 (395) Hines Blvd, the main arterial road through the downtown business core. 476' of street frontange on Lottery Lane. E-Commerce zone offeres tremendous opportunities & benefits for starting or relocating a business in this area. Great 1031 Exchange property for future.


$120K for 4ac inside the City limits... THAT'S reasonable. I'll bet Burns & Hines and dirt cheap OR towns like that grow FAR FASTER than Bend in the next 20 years.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

A foreclosure fixer upper:

Rehabbers Offer What You Think Is Profitable For You!

House is in foreclosure and needs work to bring it up to standards. You could get it for a song. Visit and do your take-off and make offer. We will go to bank and negotiate discounting exsisting note to meet your offer. No earnest money needed.

Located at 1841 NE Monterey Ave
Call John For entry instructions.
541-771-8243


Yet Another Example of how NOT to "package" a home for sale. If you DO want to buy this home for marshmallow cooking/insurance fire purposes, don't forget to over-insure first!

Anonymous said...

How could the city have allowed such rampant disregard for homeowners equity

*

I'll play the timmy-twat rhetorical game.

The reason is a homeowner only has ONE-RIGHT, and that is to pay taxes, the tax money goes to county, but the city gets its share.

The city doesn't have a fucking thing to do with EQUITY, equity is what you own in the house, the TT fucking nutheads that bought in the last five year in bend with nuttin down, or enjoying NEGATIVE-EQUITY.

It's not their money that got them into the the house, and its NOT their money they're losing, and the city doesn't have a fucking thing to do with it.

+90% of bend is parasitic electorate with not a dick between their legs, nor Grey Matter between their eyes, and the TT's on this board prove that assertion daily.

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