Monday, October 15, 2007

Juniper Ridge: How Bend City Council will turn $15 billion into Bankruptcy

Lordy, is there anything the Simpsons can't teach us?

Homer
: Well, what do you think?
Editor: This is a joke, right? I mean this is the stupidest thing I've ever read!
Homer: What's wrong with it?
Editor: You keep using words like "Pasghetti" and "Momatoes" You make numerous threatening references to the UN and at the end you repeat the words "Screw Flanders" over and over again.

Welp, looks like we've reached The Homer-Food Critic Moment: That point in time where BendBust's almost incomprehensible rants start to have a quite disturbing foreshadowing of what comes to pass. Many, including me, BEM, Duncan (especially Duncan), and Timmy (but especially Timmy) have borne the brunt of BilboBusters "Screw Flanders" tirades. And Juniper Ridge, Ray Kuratek, condo developers in general, and many, MANY others have acted as the quasi-relevant "Pasghetti" and "Momatoes". But BendBust, after a rusty, expletive-laden start (and middle), is starting to get his props from those he might bust in the scrote:

BendBust: Why is it that of ALL the cunts on the blog board, not a fucking one will read the M49 text but timmy?
Timmy: Finally, something almost less than disdain. I grovel.

Duncan: Bendbust is like Columbus, he may have found the wrong continent, but he found something interesting anyway...
...I went to Brooks Resources website, and Bendbust may be more on to something that I thought.

Thing about bendbust, everytime you think he's exaggerating, come to find out he not far off the mark.

Sure, there is still the odd "Screw Flanders" tirade against those who would defend him:

Buster: BEM,
I don't know who is MORE intellectually lazy YOU or HBM.


BEM: Fuck man! Gimme a break!

(BEM probably experiencing cruel sense of irony: As I bear BilboBust as frothing at the mouth raving lunatic in this blog... so did he bear me. Possibly Cats In The Cradle music is appropriate here...)

Paul-doh say long time ago young Grasshoppers:

'Twat sounds like ranting
Nothing spewed but Screw Flanders

Shows glimmer of truth


And if you've been casually skimming this blog for any period, you've noticed that one of Bilbo's favorite topics is the lambasting of Juniper Ridge. He even made a post request:
IHTBYB - You really should do a cover blog for next sunday on JR, things are really starting to hit the fan.

I'll admit, my first reaction to this was a Big Yawn. Sort of like the whole Broken Top drama: really doesn't seem to involve me, and I'm not really sure of the relevance. But Buster seems adamant about its importance, and that crazy bastard does seem to have insights buried in the nooks & crannies of his Screw Flanders tirades, so I looked into it. There are two main sources that I looked at:

DoJuniperRidgeRight.com

Who's behind Juniper Ridge and why you need to know

I could have written an EXTRAORDINARILY long, detailed, and QUITE UNFLATTERING post on this topic. But I would simply be repeating much of what is in these 2 documents. Buster alleges that BEM himself wrote the Bend Living piece, something I have no proof of. But it extremely well-written by someone who knows what the hell is going on, so draw your own conclusions. Here is a short Paul-doh summary, for what it's worth:

Juniper Ridge is 1,500ac run of scrub that passed from the Federales to Deschutes county in a land swap back in the day, and then from the county to the City of Bend:

In November 1990 the county transferred the land to the City for $1.00. The transfer stipulated that “a master development plan be formulated” and the “plan be adopted by the City pursuant to an open public process and public hearings and that the plan address the needs of the city and the concerns of the public”.

After the requisite years of wanking off, Bend City butt-munkees.. err, Councilors, decided to include 500ac in the Bend Urban Area:

Following land use law and procedures, the state in 2004 allowed 504 acres to be included in the Bend Urban Area, specifically due to the need for industrial land, and the city then annexed it in 2005. The state indicated it should be a sufficient industrial supply for 20 years.

Remember these 2 things: The land was "given" to the City almost COMPLETELY for industrial use, and maybe other mixed development use. THAT'S ALL. It is also STATE LAW that the city provide for 20 YEARS supply of industrial land, something we have been in egregious violation of a long time. Juniper Ridge is meant to solve THIS PROBLEM.

From BendLiving:

On May 13, 2005, the City issued developers a so-called “Request for Qualifications,” or RFQ, for Phase I of Juniper Ridge. This RFQ “solicited qualifications from development teams to develop approximately 504 acres of land to become the Juniper Ridge Technology and Research Park.”

Bend City Council asked for ideas regarding the development of the intial 500ac, (Phase I) THAT'S ALL. There were multiple RFQ's for a 500ac development plan, but one set of K-mart, light blue leisure suit Larry's swept Bend City Council off their feet: Ray Kuratek & Jeff Holzman, after hitching up from the Bay where they whiled away the days jerking Templeton Funds around on a 39ac campus, formed Juniper Ridge Partners for the sole purpose of bidding on the Juniper Ridge development. But Holz-tek pulled a quick one as is their wont to do, being Shameless Hucksters:

  • They proposed the development of ALL 1,500ac
  • They wildly changed the distribution of zoning planned for JR
  • They secured a $2.5MM golden parachute for themselves to pay "salaries & expenses" if they were ever to be fired
  • They receive $60,000/mo compensation
  • They secured a promise of 20% GUARANTEED RETURN for their financial partner, AIG, on their $30MM investment
  • They HAMSTRUNG every other proposal when Bend City Dumbshits all of a sudden acted like their 500ac proposals were no longer appropriate
  • They convinced the City to go into the Development Business, and go into league with them to share (nope, "share" isn't the word... it's "bear") ALL the risks of developing JR, but ONLY get their "FAIR SHARE" of the profits after the other side is repaid IN FULL
  • They (initially) convince Bend City Dumbfucks that despite the fact that the city would provide 100% of the land (the PRIMARY ASSET in this heist) and $40MM in infrastructure improvements as compared to JRP & Co's $30MM, that they would split profits 50/50. This was later slapped down as simply an INTOLERABLE RIPOFF.

There is probably more, but it's almost too much to bear. Typing each bullet point does to me what an inappropriate apostrophe or spelling error does to Timmy: it whipe's 24 ou-wer's auff mi life'sporn.

Holz-tek are shamless hucksters. It is in their nature to frisk their marks for every nickel. But it's Bend City Butt-bangers responsiblity to SAFE GUARD the City's resources. I DO NOT BLAME HOLZ-TEK: that's like blaming a shark for ripping a carcass to pieces, it's the nature of the beast. But when they approached the City and proposed what may well be an ILLEGAL development plan for JR, it was Bend City ButtBangers obligation to do the following:

It's called NEGOTIATION. OK, "they" propose something Out-fucking-rageous, and "you" burn their greedy asses at the stake. OK, that's how it SHOULD GO. But when Holz-Tek met Bend City Dumbshits, they knew they'd hit PAY DIRT, cuz this is what they found:


They found a whole slew of incompetents, that simply boggle the mind. EVERY SINGLE LOONEY-ASS proposal they puked forth was ACCEPTED WHOLE MOTHERFUCKIN' HOG.

Q: "20% guaranteed for AIG?"
A: YES

Q: "50/50 split"
A: YES

Q: We can completely change EVERY SINGLE REQUIREMENT of JR, including parts that would make it BORDERLINE ILLEGAL?
A: YES

Q: We get millions for doing NOTHING?
A: YES

Q: You will go into the horribly risk-laden development business in league with K-mart leisure-suit Larry's, and NOT HUGE well-established developers like Trammel Crow, despite the fact you dumbshits can't fix a fuckin' toilet?
A: YES

My God, it just goes on and on. Seriously, I get an uncontrollable eye-twitch when I think about it. You think it's an isolated incident? FUCK NO! There is seemingly NOTHING that goes before the City Council where they do not just flout their fiduciary duties, THEY ACTIVELY SEEK TO VIOLATE THEM. From todays Bulletin:

Downtown Bend lot will get an overhaul
As a result of a last-minute switch in the terms of the city’s request for proposals, officials can judge the projects without having to favor the project with the higher sale price to the city.
In August, just one day before proposals for redeveloping the land at Greenwood and Wall were initially due, the council, acting as BURA, decided to suspend the process to change the factors that would be used to select a project.

Initially, half of a project’s score was to have gone toward the price that developers offered the city for the land. Thirty percent would have gone toward the design concept and 20 percent of the score would have been for the qualifications and experience of the developers.

But at the last minute, councilors decided they would rather have more flexibility in scoring the proposals, so they pulled the plug on the process, returned the proposals unopened to the developers and launched a new process, with proposals due in the middle of September. In the second round, the three categories remained, but there was no scoring percentage or weight attached to any of them.

All but one member of BURA, Councilor Mark Capell, voted in favor of the change.

“We just seem to be doing a number of embarrassing things,” Capell said at the Aug. 15 meeting. “If we keep looking flaky, and I hate to keep using that word, (the city’s credibility) is never going to get better.”

"Flaky"? You think this sounds "flaky"? That's like calling Hitlers genocide of the Jews, "flaky". It seems borderline criminal. They've essentially WIPED OUT any possible evaluation of these 2 proposals based on merit, and made the process 100% CAPRICIOUS. 100% at their whim. Kuratek said dealing with City Council is like dealing with The Ultimate Old Boy Network... he got that shit right.

Seriously, if I type much more about this, I will get some sort of spontaneous TUMOR. But I will just shortly write what we should do with JR:

SELL IT

Right, just sell the fucker. With the current City Council we are doomed the destroy the town. Like the French, whatever it is they WANT to do, we should do EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE, because I don't know much, but I do know that WHATEVER the hell they DO want is counter to the interests of this town. There is talk that we could sell JR lock, stock & barrel for $65 million. We should do that, and then try to extract a 20% 30 YEAR GUARANTEED RETURN from AIG. That would parlay our $65 million to a scant $15,429,461,000 in 30 years. Yeah, 15 BILLS. I know, it's a little disingenuous to even THINK that any fuckin' lunatic in their right mind would PROMISE 20%... except the City of Bend. We actually ARE.

Here it is:

It's OUR land.
Most of the money is OURS

And Bend City Morons have essentially given Holz-tek the opportunity to STEAL 75% of JR.

STEP 1) 2 K-mart light blue polyester leisure suits
STEP 2) Smoke and mirrors magic show where rabbit is pulled out of hat

STEP 3) Secure Master development rights

STEP 4) Insert digits into Jim Clinton blowup doll

STEP 5) Sell 300ac of JR for residential development, in 100% VIOLATION OF STATE LAW

STEP 6) Repay AIG with proceeds, before the ink is barely dry on their $30MM deposit slip

STEP 7) Exploit 100% of the remainder of JR for the next 1,000,000 years


This is ACTUALLY WHAT IS HAPPENING. We are actually just going to GIVE AWAY Juniper Ridge. It's un-fuckin-believable. We could sell it for $65 mill, but instead we're going to just give it away, in almost certain violation of the law. Holz-tek have RE-WRITTEN the zoning proportions for THEIR SOLE BENEFIT. They WILL sell off just enough to pay off their Money Guy, and at that point, they & AIG will control virtually everything that happens at JR, and Bend & it's taxpayers are SCREWED. Seriously, it's unbelievable. We will literally turn a 8-9 figure financial bonanza into NOTHING.

And there's the idiotic protest: "If we just sell JR, we'll have no control over what happens there! Oh no!"

What? WHAT? WHAT?

What the fuck does this mean? We'll have 100% control over what happens, just like we do over every single other development. You just zone the motherfucker for whatever you want. Like this city has done a billion times before. Zone the fuckin thing for whatever you want, and then SELL IT. If you get some lunatic like Kuratek who builds a Dairy Queen in a residential zoned area, you blow it up. If Holzman builds a koi pond in a light industrial zone, you drain it & EAT THE KOI.

OK, Bend City Dumbbutts have proved OVER & OVER, that they have LESS THAN ZERO qualifications for ANYTHING, much less going into league with a couple of flim-flam men. Zone JR, sell it, and FIRE EVERY FUCKIN' BEND CITY COUNCILOR. Reminds me of "Blazing Saddle"... This is Bend City Buttfucks answer to ever flim-flam asshole that stumbles into town:

Sheriff Bart: Oh lordy lord! He's desperate. Do what he say! Do what he say!

My God, I've aged about a year just writing that. OK, moving on to David Foster & Brooks "auction", and then I have to quit and nurse this monsterous JR-inspired tumor/goiter.

David, for probably good reason, seems to have changed his tone from one of slightly masked pessimism, to one of "it's not so bad". That's OK, he's a Realtor, and frankly he was quite alone in his frank discussions of the downside. But go beyond the "surface" of whether you agree with him or not, and you get the idea that he's hurtin'. That the state of the RE business in Bend is pretty gat-damned dire. That it is starting to impact the livelihood of MANY people in the business to the extent that they will change their tune & try to "talk it up".

Now, I still respect David & his opinion, he's been a pretty straight shooter when the DuBois' & Breezes' of the World have not just been shading the truth, but deliberately misleading people, from my perspective. But I think he's shifting a little towards "puffing" this thing back up, in some measure to restore some sort of faith in this thing. He has some quotes in his recent piece:

"The goal of owning a home seems to be getting beyond the reach of more and more Americans. The typical new house today costs about $28,000." Business Week, 1969

"The median price of a home today is approaching $50,000 ... housing experts predict price rises in the future won't be that great." National Business, 1977

"The golden age of risk-free run-ups in home prices is gone." Money Magazine, 1985

"A home is where the bad investment is." San Francisco Examiner, 1996

Now these look like pretty good homilies supporting buying a house for the long-term, given that prices are almost ludicrously higher today. But remember 2 things: There is PREDICTION of the future, and rehashing the past. Virtually ALL newspaper pieces simply review recent holding period returns, and then extrapolate these, and write some sort of "predictive" piece that is invariably wrong. That's what these are. Half-wit reporters writing pieces about holding period returns on housing that were kind of crappy at the time they wrote them. They actually are probably better as timing vehicles for a short-term bounce than anything.

Second, we are AT OR NEAR the top of the largest RE bubble ever experienced by THIS PLANET. NO MATTER WHERE OR HOW you look back, you will find prices from more than 10 years ago as almost ridiculously low compared to today. Just look at the NASDAQ right after the peak, maybe around 4,500: There is a GREAT CASE to be made that the NASDAQ at 4,500, while off a bit, is still one of the GREATEST INVESTMENTS IN MODERN TIMES.

We all know what happened next. We are at "NASDAQ 4,500" in the bursting of the biggest RE bubble ever. 10% off the top, but still there can be made very convincing arguments that RE is still a HUGE long-term winner. This is simple holding period return extrapolation, much like David's quotes. There is NO prediction in them. They are "predicting" the recent past... not the future.

Finally, Brooks Resources has decided to "auction" some townhomes at Mt Bachelor Village. Seems Uncle Flippers, the prime target of selling these shitholes, has up & died. I have to quote the word "auction" here, because my own experience of this town and it's Boss Hogg insiders leads me to believe this is Yet Another PR/Marketing Bullshit Bonanza from a graduate of the Creating Perceived Demand Where None Exists Community College, apparently where Hollern graduated.

Now Timmy, I think, thinks this is a Sign Of The Times and is indicative of one of the Big Boys doing Major Signaling that The End is Nigh. And I agree to some extent. They WOULD NOT do an auction unless there was a strong impetus to do so. But I also believe that "Auction" was Phase I of the plan. Phase II involved massive widespread PR/Marketing using The Bulletin as their bitch (check that one off as COMPLETE), then plant Friends of Brooks in the "bidding pool" to ensure a GUARANTEED SUCCESS. I don't think the higher ups at Brooks could resist.

This auction is a 100% FRAUD AND A FAKE. There is an iron-clad fallback that involves the oldest trick in the eBay book: Self dealing. These condos WILL SELL. They would NEVER do something like this & let it fail. It'd be SUICIDE for ALL OTHER BROOKS DEVELOPMENTS. There are VERY HIGH price reserves on all these units, so this is nothing more than a modest price reduction, with a ticker tape PR parade in tow. Congrats Brooks, you've turned a price reduction "mole-hill" into a PR Mountain.

If Brooks OR ANYONE were to EVER hold a 100% authentic, no self-dealing, no price res, open, public auction, the absolute WORST SCENARIO POSSIBLE would be unveiled: That market clearing prices for Bend homes are dizzyingly far below where we are now, probably 30% down from here. There is ZERO INCENTIVE to probe the true depths of how bad the current Bend market is. But evidence is all around us.

Remember "Eagles Landing"? The little subdiv with approximately 98% of all it's lots unsold, depicted in "Picto-Plummet"? Well, they lowered intial prices from $425K.... to $350K... to $299K. And how many lots sold as a result of this 30% reduction?

ZERO

Nothing has been built or even started at Eagles Landing despite the implosion of prices that have cratered 30% over the Summer & Fall. There is literally almost no way to lower your prices enough to truly understand just how depressed demand really is. People who are buying now are very, VERY few in number, and they literally have "no choice". NOBODY, given the choice, would buy now. Conversely, NO ONE who is attempting & listing their house RIGHT NOW, has ANY CHOICE. Do you know ANYONE who would VOLUNTARILY try to sell a home in Bend today? No! No one would.

In that vein, Brooks is HARD UP to sell its townhomes. ANYONE trying to sell RE around here, who needs to do it to pay off liabilities is probably looking at the Big BK. THAT is what's changing. Timmy, I think, is one person who is starting to get the smackdown that Paul-doh been laying down lo these many months:

The more I read this blog, the more I worry about my gameplan. (And I AM here to learn, not for the pure entertainment value, of which there is much.) I've been expecting mass bank takeovers of properties in Bend. Price declines to 2003, or even earlier levels. I'm prepared for Plan B in that DOESN'T happen. (Go to a part of the country where my down payment here buys a whole house there.) But am I prepared for the true ramifications of Plan A? If Bend crashes hard and I get what I thought I wanted, am I just living it up in a sweet house in a decimated crime-ridden, depressing hellhole of a town?

There isn't going to be this sort of Ceterus Paribus Decline, where all else stays equal and home prices just go into an orderly decline. Prices will go down FOR GOOD REASON. If we see $175K medians.. do you think all the recent affluence & wealth & prospering local economics will be unaffected? Or EVEN CLOSE? It'll be drugs, crime, and a bunch of gypsy's barely scrapping by. It'll be mass exodus. It'll be big swaths of GHOST TOWN SUBDIVS.

It really is scary what's going on here. A City Government that is literally a bunch of moronic criminals. Their answer to an angered citizenry regarding their own graft, self-dealing, and incompetence is MORE PR & MARKETING & CLOSE THE FUCKIN' DOORS. They are literally THROWING AWAY our tax dollars. No, that's not true. If they were just throwing dollars away, we'd probably be OK. They are actually legally encumbering this town in illegal contracts, where we literally receive NOTHING except GUARANTEED BANKRUPTCY & the other side gets HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS. It's unbelievable (Sorry, I can't stop saying that, cuz I can't stop thinking it).

I have literally resigned myself to exasperated apathy. How can I give a SHIT about this place when it's leaders don't just NOT GIVE A SHIT, they seem to actively WANT TO DESTROY IT? It's like the US itself: What the hell are we doing, taking one of the greatest stores of wealth the World has ever known (U.S. business tax base), and squandering it in a pointless "War"? I do not get it. Bend has an almost unbelievable resource in JR, it's property tax base, and other revenue sources, and we literally would be better off setting this money on fire than doing what City Council is doing.

Timmy is dead right. Bend is the next "Zimbabwe". Zimbabwe leaders took one of the most prosperous African countries 20 years ago, and literally destroyed it economically. Remember that next time someone tries to sell you the Bend Is Surrounded By Natural Wonders BULLSHIT, about how people will never leave & the hordes will always keep coming here. What a load of shit. Places of Natural Beauty being run into the ground is The Rule in this World, not the exception. Bend IS beautiful, as BEM notes, but so are a LOT of other places. People WILL LEAVE BEND IF IT IS ZIMBABWE'd. If every economic resource is 100% SQUANDERED, as it is now, you literally will not recognize Bend a decade hence. Ohhh, we'll have our $175K medians. We'll also have 50% vacancy downtown, 20% unemployment, vast ghost towns, busted windows, meth shacks on every corner, and God knows what else.

If you give a flying fuck about Bend, well then you go to the JR meeting Monday. I WILL NOT be in attendance attendance. Why should I? Per our glorious Mayor:

The Bend City Council is considering a number of other things this week.

During a Monday night work session, the council will discuss a widely circulated policy memo on the next steps of developing the 1,500-acre mixed-use Juniper Ridge project. Though the meeting is open to the public, the council is unlikely to open the floor to much public comment, Mayor Bruce Abernethy said.

Q: Why should I give a shit about a town that EXPRESSEDLY does not give a fuck about what I have to say?

A: I DON'T.

Prediction:

One or more Bend City Councilors will be perp-walked out of City Hall in the next 3 years.

Frankly, I cannot believe that what Bend City Council is doing is not being done under duress, and Holz-tek KNOW what the skeleton in the closet is. There's just no way any one person is THAT stupid, much less a whole group. Paul-doh got a nose for bullshit, and this don't smell right. Somebody's going to jail.

I also think some will see the end and pull "The Hummel Maneuver": Resign, declare your Love Of Humanity (If a lawyer declaring his "Love Of Humanity" don't set off your gay-dar, nothing will.), and run off to a foreign country with questionable extradition laws. The smarter ones will quit first, and ask questions later. I don't know much, but

SOME DUMBFUCK IS GOING TO JAIL FOR FELONY FRAUD.

324 comments:

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Anonymous said...


Bidders for Columbia Aircraft say Cessna has unfair advantage

Oct 12, 2007 (The Bulletin - McClatchy-Tribune Information Services via COMTEX) -- PKE | charts | news | PowerRating -- Two new prospective buyers have surfaced in the bid for Columbia Aircraft Manufacturing Corp., according to U.S. Bankruptcy Court filings this week, and the bidders are complaining that the Bend builder of general aviation airplanes is unfairly favoring a sale to aviation giant Cessna Aircraft Co.

Philadelphia-based Versa Capital Management Inc. and Melville, N.Y.-based Park Electrochemical Corp. each filed a motion with the U.S.

Bankruptcy Court in Portland on Wednesday complaining that Columbia's proposed bidding process chills competitive bidders, like themselves.

Park's motion asks the court to modify the bidding procedures, and Versa's motion requests that the court completely deny them.

Columbia hopes to complete a sale by the end of November or December, because the company is "experiencing operating losses in the magnitude of roughly $1 million per week," according to e-mails between Columbia and a Park Electrochemical attorney, included in Park's motion.

Cessna officials say their company, part of Providence, R.I.-based Textron Inc., which produces Bell helicopters and has industrial and finance divisions, has the financial backing to support Columbia, which reported $60 million in unsecured debt in its bankruptcy filing.

Columbia filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection Sept. 24 and announced that it intended to sell the company to Wichita, Kan.-based Cessna. Cessna officials say the company will keep Columbia's operations in Bend, with no plans of moving operations to Kansas.

Columbia is one of Central Oregon's largest employers, with about 400 people.

Columbia attorneys have said the Chapter 11 filing was designed to facilitate sale of the company to Cessna. Columbia, however, will go up for auction Nov. 21 to allow other companies to make competing bids.

Versa and Park oppose Columbia's proposed procedures for that bidding process.

The players Park manufactures high-tech digital and advanced composite materials principally for telecommunications and Internet infrastructure, high-end computing and aerospace markets, with a focus on general aviation.

The company reported $258 million in net sales for its fiscal year that ended Feb. 25 and net earnings of $39.8 million. The company's interest in Columbia stems from Park's desire to expand its current composite manufacturing expertise into aircraft components and manufacturing, according to the bankruptcy motion documents.

Cessna cited similar reasons for acquiring Columbia's assets.

"Right now, [Columbia airplanes] are faster than anything we have to offer," Bob Stangarone, vice president of corporate communications at Cessna, said in a telephone interview Thursday. "It makes us more competitive, because we can offer a more complete product line."

Cessna doesn't make any composite aircraft to compete with its rival, Cirrus Design Corp., based in Duluth, Minn.

Cessna's 2006 revenues totaled $4.2 billion, and the company delivered more than 1,200 planes. Its revenues for the first half of 2007 were more than $2.1 billion. Its parent company, Textron Inc., has a total market capitalization of about $15 billion.

Representatives of Versa Capital Management could not be reached for comment, but the investment company said it "may make an offer to purchase assets of Columbia," according to Wednesday's Bankruptcy Court filing.

Representatives of Columbia did not return calls for comment Thursday.

Park President and CEO Brian Shore declined to comment Thursday.

Before the bidding war Versa and Park cited a number of problems with Columbia's proposed bidding procedures, which Columbia's attorneys submitted to the court Sept. 28, pending a hearing for approval.

"The playing field is not level," Versa's filing said. "It is tilted in favor of Cessna."

Objections include:

--Cessna's bid for Columbia is not held to the same qualifications as competitors.

--Cessna's letter of intent puts the company under no contractual obligation to purchase Columbia. "It can merely walk away and receive back any deposit -- no questions asked," according to Versa's filing.

--Columbia wants Cessna to be the initial bidder and have a right to $500,000 as a "breakup fee" if Cessna doesn't end up winning the bid for Columbia. This "would provide Cessna with substantial tactical advantage over the other competing bidders," according to Versa's filing. "Here, however, Cessna has done nothing to entitle it to either benefit."

--Cessna's letter of intent, while offering $14 million in cash and the assumption of roughly $7 million in Columbia debt, does not define a slew of other price components, according to Versa, and Cessna is not required to announce its opening bid amount until other competing bids are submitted. A bidding process where the opening bid is not fully disclosed before competitors must submit an overbid "is fundamentally flawed, illogical and unfairly favors Cessna over competing bidders," Versa's filing says.

--Columbia is not providing to other interested parties the same access to its business information as it is to Cessna.

--Timelines in the bidding procedure limit potential bidders from having enough time to properly prepare for a bid.

--The bidding process, in which Columbia requests only 10 minutes between rounds, is too limiting.

--A minimum overbid amount of $1 million is artificially large to accommodate for breakup fees, according to Versa, and chills competitive bidding.

Cessna spokesman Stangarone said Cessna does not control the Bankruptcy Court's bidding process and could not comment on the filings by Versa and Park because he had not seen them.

"The Bankruptcy Court's function is to look out for the interests of creditors," Stangarone said. "So I don't know how that would benefit Cessna."

To see more of The Bulletin, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.bendbulletin.com Copyright (c) 2007, The Bulletin, Bend, Ore. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services. For reprints, email tmsreprints@permissionsgroup.com, call 800-374-7985 or 847-635-6550, send a fax to 847-635-6968, or write to The Permissions Group Inc., 1247 Milwaukee Ave., Suite 303, Glenview, IL 60025, USA.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

"experiencing operating losses in the magnitude of roughly $1 million per week,"

These guys must know Dan Bau-humper: Losing millions a year, yet still able to sell that hemorrhaging white elephant for millions.

Cessna officials say the company will keep Columbia's operations in Bend, with no plans of moving operations to Kansas.

Cessna hired Larry Craig as a consultant on the deal: "We have no plans to move the operation to Kansas."

Right, I'm sure Cessna has every intention of throwing millions at this thing, and then keeping the status quo: LOSING $1 MILLION/WK. Right.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

There is a BIG kickback arrangement with Cessna. Someone at Columbia be raking in the dollars if Cessna can steal the thing.

Standard Bend Operating Procedure: Under the table side deals.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

You might start to hear that Columbia is "worthless" from Cessna & others. Now that Columbia bears the title of BANKRUPT, it serves company bidders best interests to lambast Columbia as worthless... which will lead to plane purchase cancellations... which will bear out Columbia's "worthlessness". They will do whatever is necessary to hammer down the price, even if it means devaluing Columbia to nothing. They're just going to have to resurrect it later anyway.

Anonymous said...

I'm not really your target audience, and I approach most of your posts with healthy skepticism, but there are some really good points here, again.

Even those on the "inside" of the real estate business are starting to get concerned about the impact of questionable decisions by local government. I know.

Another good post that many in this town would do well to heed.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Dan Bau-humper

That's "Don"

Anonymous said...

IHTBYB I thought you were joking about our dear mayor banning open discourse at the city meeting, but your correct. Abernethy is not going to allow dissension.

The Columbia deal is exactly as we have said, the low bid by Cessna is a sweetheart deal, and the creditors are NOT going to put up with the shit.

The lawyers near Bend ( 500 mi radius ) in the next ten years are going to make a fortune. Endless lawsuits from Juniper Ridge, to Les Schwab, to Brooks, ... Most likely the single biggest expense to the taxpayer in the coming years will be the city staff defending itself from lawsuits using taxpayer dollars.

Good overview on JR. It really is todays 'front' of the residents vs city-hall (RE/PR ) war. The 'residents' of Bend, which from what I can tell is anyone who lives in Bend is now considered enemy of the Government. Out of State investors and second home-owners are favorable. I guess this is what you can expect from a government that is beholden to out of state interests.

Just a few days ago realty-times reported that while Bend was still a good place to invest in RE, the 'residents' were the greatest obstacle to growth. Sounds like a justification for ethnic cleansing to me.

Anonymous said...

http://bendbubble.blogspot.com/2007/10/juniper-ridge-rats-squandering-taxpayer.html

Clarification BEM wrote the above, I did not say he wrote the bend-living article.

Anonymous said...

http://bendbubble.blogspot.com/2007/10/bend-city-with-dysfunctional-staff-and.html

*

The above is one of the newest, and best written reports on JR to date that I have seen.

Bend Economy Man said...

- They receive $60,000/mo compensation
- They secured a promise of 20% GUARANTEED RETURN for their financial partner, AIG, on their $30MM investment
- They HAMSTRUNG every other proposal when Bend City Dumbshits all of a sudden acted like their 500ac proposals were no longer appropriate


Clarification: 20% guaranteed ANNUAL return. We'd be almost better off putting Juniper Ridge on the corporate MasterCard or going to a payday loan storefront for the money.

Anonymous said...

I guess this is what you can expect from a government that is beholden to out of state interests.

*

Having been here for 40+ years I know where quite a few skeletons are located. What is fascinating about Bend is that how its become a mini-PDX. Years ago BIG CONSTRUCTION took over PDX, for instance Vera-Katz ( PDX MAYOR ) got almost all her money from Bechtel, Halliburton, ... Major US construction firms. They are the owners of PDX, fine,...

But then you have little Bend, Oregon, a city say maybe 50K people actually live here in NON-tourist season, yet the town is owned and controlled by REITS, of State NY financial RE interests. You want to hold office in Bend, you must get money, money comes from far away,... People of Bend? Who care next election, you know you have the BULL on your side.

Its fascinating to have such a small town, with the people have NO influence whatsoever. Like the recent 450 signatures from Bends oldest and most historically important people, the city-council just yawned, and didn't so much as even record the complaint about JR proceedings.

Bend has always been a company town, and ya it was ran by Shevlin, Hixson Lumber, who was ran out Minneapolis, but the people here pretty much ran the government, as long a the folks in Minneapolis were making money cutting down trees. Then in the 1960's heirs to the timber biz, sent young Mike Hollern to Bend with a fresh cali MBA, to take all the old clear-cut and turn it into RE developments, this created Black-Butte, and his best buddy JD-Gray did Sunriver.

Not much happened for a few years, the REIT pretty much took off in the 1980's and took over PDX, there was a time in the 80's that ALL land on the west side of PDX was getting bought up site unseen by NW REITS. Sometime after 911, they discovered Bend, overnight Bend went from a little town ran by its own citizens, to what we now have today. Certainly the people could get their town back, but in my study's once you sell your town, the REIT's may sell to another REIT, but they're not going to let their investment go un-checked. Thus its in their interest to control the city into perpetuity

On a larger scale its like senate-seats, here in Oregon for US senator 88% of campaign contributions come from out-of-state, thus does any actually believe that our senators are beholden to the citizens??

Same for our city's, they're now even in a little shit-hole like Bend, the entire county/city politicians are 100% controlled by out of state investors, who MUST control development, and make sure their low bid is give priority.

Outsiders in places like the Dalles will say "DONT BEND MY TOWN", which plainly means don't sell out my town.

In a few years Bend will be bought by foreign REITS and then most likely the political positions will be filled by people favorable to foreign governments.

Anonymous said...

Clarification: 20% guaranteed ANNUAL return. We'd be almost better off putting Juniper Ridge on the corporate MasterCard or going to a payday loan storefront for the money

*

Exactly, AIG Hank Greenberg criminal at large, biggest insurance scam artist in America. Company biz is to collect premiums, and deny claims. They take in Billions of dollars of premiums, and 'invest' the money.

Why give a 20% return to AIG?? Hell there even CACB would go for this deal?? Somebody is getting a kick-back here, and if anything we know about HOLZ-TEK is that they have as many LLC's as HOGG-HOLLERN.

Last year when the $30M fill through HOLZ-TEK told the city that Stockbridge/Bay Meadows was the bank ( front for HOLZ-TEK ), but then later when the MOU was forced public by chamber-of-commmerce. Then UBS formally said they weren't going fund Stockbridge, again HOLZ-TEK was acting as a broker, and yet dealing directly with the city as JR's MASTER DEVELOPER, but they also owned the so called 'bank' that was going to fund the plan.

The UBS ( stockbridge/bay meadows ) deal fill apart last august 2006, then a few weeks HOLZ-TEK announce that AIG was going to fund the $30M.

This deal is too good. Why not send out an RFQ and see who responds, there is little risk, as the land is worth $65M, certainly CACB would like to earn almost 20%/yr.

Why do we let HOLZ-TEK act as a broker, and choose who finances the deal, at their terms?? There are TOO MANY conflicts of interest here.

Just like boss-hogg hollern, when you have 100's of LLC's nobody clearly understands that everything is really just one or two people.

Anonymous said...

http://www.savebaymeadows.org/news.php

Folks looking for smoking gun, can also look into 'bay meadows', its a race-track down in San Mateo, CA.

The site posted above has a very good chronology, about all of the LLC's that Kuratek ran, and the political creeps he broke bread with, the good news is the good people, of this website did save their track from Kuratek.

The bad news, is that he got tarred and feathered, and ran out of town, and packed his bags and ended up on the doorstep of Bend, San Mateo ran him out in 2004, and by 2005 he was doing the same shit in Bend, that got him ran out of California.

The good news again, is these 'little folks' won.

For a deep analysis of the entire spider web, and true ugliness google "bay meadows kuratek".

{ Kuratek worked for UBS, Stockbridge, ... }

*

Another interesting inconsistency is that the city-of-bend lists HOLZ-TEK as residents since 2001, yet the San Mateo folk say he was still running biz down there in 2004, we know he didn't start in Bend until 2005. Most likely he had a second home in Bend in 2001. The city-of-Bend website on JR was basically written by HOLZ-TEK. It's good to compare what they say, and what the bay-meadows people say about them in 2004.

**

Personally given that Bend is controlled by out of state interests, and Kuratek has been a bad-cop enforcer for the biggest banks in the world for years, my guess is behind the scenes the politicians of Bend were told by the owners of Bend that YOU MUST WORK WITH KURATEK.

Anonymous said...

Brooks Security, LLC Now has the contract for 'Bend Stewards', which is a new private security team for securing all parks of illegal activity, the stewards can write tickets, but not carry guns, but they can carry any other weapon they wish. During the pilot program private police will only secure the parks, then then downtown, and lastly the entire city limits once the program is self sufficient.

Brooks CCR's will now be enforced in ALL BEND CITY LIMITS. For instance the Stewards will be able to write a ticket for any hanging out laundry anywhere.

The stewards can write a $400 dog-off-leash ticket, and it will have the full power in Bend City Court. The cops don't want to do this shit, but Brooks Security will get 90% of the gross, and of that each steward takes in 10% of the gross on each face value of ticket.

Primary pilot program to being this winter will include park patrol for alchohol, littering, indecency, general CCR problems that plague all Brooks Subdivisions by the 100's in Central Oregon.

The stewardship program is predicted to drive ALL undesirable residents out of Bend during the first year of the program.

All stewards MUST have spent at least 4 years in Iraq, and preferably Falluja. Mike Hollern of Brooks has stressed to the Steward candidates that the residents of Bend are every bit as hostile good living as Iraqis.

The future of Bend might see a time when we can completely do away with police, and sheriff's. Brooks security can oversee the courts, and collection of fines.

Anonymous said...

there was a time in the 80's that ALL land on the west side of PDX was getting bought up site unseen by NW REITS.

*

Whoops, NY Reits.

Just like AIG, the MOTHER SOURCE OR ALL REIT CASH.

What Kuratek is NOW doing is cutting out the middle man, AIG has long used the REIT as its method of taking insurance premiums, which are in effect easy-money handed to them for free, and putting the money into their own REIT's.

By going to directly to AIG, HOLZ-TEK are in effect acting as their own HOLZ-TEK REIT, LLC. Of course they wouldn't call it HOLX-TEK REIT, that would be too obvious a better name would be "Bend Meadows REIT, LLC".

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I just posted this over on BendBB:

Posted: Sun Oct 14, 2007 8:25 am Post subject: The Implosion of The Plaza Has Begun Reply with quote
I didn't even notice this at first, but Becky Breeze has begun SLASHING prices at the Plaza. She's got 15 listings there (OK, SHE has 14, and there is one INSANE resale), just search "Upper Terrace" on COR. Here are some representative reductions:
Code:

2007-10-05 2710315 Bend Upper Terrace 699900 549900 -150000 -21.43 311 1
2007-10-05 2710317 Bend Upper Terrace 699900 599900 -100000 -14.29 305 1
2007-10-05 2607411 Bend Upper Terrace 789900 799900 10000 1.27 491 2
2007-10-05 2706893 Bend Upper Terrace 799900 699900 -100000 -12.50 429 1
2007-10-05 2710319 Bend Upper Terrace 799900 699900 -100000 -12.50 374 1
2007-10-05 2607357 Bend Upper Terrace 949900 699900 -250000 -26.32 437 1
2007-10-06 2710316 Bend Upper Terrace 599900 539900 -60000 -10.00 331 1


Those are BRUTAL reductions! Look at that 26.3% REDUCTION on MLS 2607357!

Bad News: These units are still way, WAY too high, and Becky is missing the mark on marketing them. From BeckyBreeze.com:

The Plaza´s perfect location gives you immediate access to the River and miles of River Trails. You´ll also love the fact that you are steps away from The Shops at the Old Mill where you can browse through The Gap, Victoria's Secret, Banana Republic, American Eagle Outfitters

Becky, the sooner you realize that The Plaza is essentially a psuedo-Old Folks Home, the better. They do not care about Victorias Secret... they care about Air Life, rolling electric chairs to Wal-Mart, and taking 45 minutes in the Express Checkout aisle searching for their checkbook.

Seriously, I think she's on the right track here, and might actually move a few units.... but she needs to reassess who will actually buy these things. The Whole Dream of Bend-As-Telecommuting-Haven-Packed-With-Urban-Millionaires-Who-Love-Living-Like-Sardines is heinously flawed, as she is finding out. Have an RV-Day. Line up RV's and let old farts camp out in front of The Plaza, just like Wal-Mart.

Becky's about to get a lesson in Bubble-nomics: DO NOT buy into your own BS, and especially do not buy in near the top. And if you're going to risk it & build condos in a bubble, throw those babies up in 2 months or less, otherwise you will go down HARD.


There is one even MORE BRUTAL Plaza price reduction that I don't think has gone thru BendBB's script yet:

MLS 2607352 was at $1.395MM on Sept 30... today? $899,900! That is a 35% REDUCTION IN ONE SHOT! Damn near half a MILL reduction.

Anonymous said...

MLS 2607352 was at $1.395MM on Sept 30... today? $899,900! That is a 35% REDUCTION IN ONE SHOT! Damn near half a MILL reduction.

*

I have been saying that we were ALREADY down 30% for months, and now the MLS is validating that assertion, thus this means that we're really down -50%. Which is true, homes that had an ASK of $499k in 2006, would gladly sell today for $250k to a cash buyer, if the seller wanted to sell, and if the seller had bought prior to five years ago, or more when that home cost $120k.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I would hazard a guess that Becky plowed $20MM into The Plaza, and another 15% on other misc expenses, a figure that'll probably have to rise going forward with the unending Marketing she'll have to do to bamboozle Gramps into buying.

This translates into a MINIMUM $100K/mo burn rate. And she has sold A SINGLE UNIT according to BendBB's data: MLS 2607359. This was her absolute LOWEST priced unit @ $599K. Strangely, I think we rehashed here & on BendBB that the only confirmed sale we could find in the last 2 months was a deranged flipper who was trying to unload a Plaza unit for about $260K more than they paid.

(Update: This Mental Patient has reduced this unit from $1.095MM, to $995K... placing it firmly in the Lunatic Fringe, Never Sell In A Billion Years Camp. It is smaller than ALL of Breezes' new units... plus it is $100K MORE than Breezes most expensive unit. God I love this Bubble!)

I'll admit, I hope Becky can pull this thing out of the fire. She's a deranged pathological liar (sold "most" of your units Becky? Your bad.) who did the dumbest thing possible at the WORST possible time... but she is basically a nice gal, who is terminally struck with PATHOLOGICAL OPTIMISM... even in the face of horrible realities.

These units had a build cost of $450-500K, but everyday they don't sell a little more is tacked on. I bet she's into these dogs for $550K today. The market for selling these things is probably in the $300's. There's NO WAY for her to win on this deal, and things are about to get worse. She should go the Brooks route, and just liquidate these units in a PR/Marketing Grand Bonanza auction.

Waited too long to do it while there's no snow on the Sisters, and that'll cost her $100K/unit minimum. But the shit is hitting the fan, and she's looking at losing it all. Brooks is pointing the way... Becky should follow. It's not about "making money" anymore for anyone... it's about BAILING OUT before the tsunami of HESITANT SUPPLY comes online over the next few months.

LIQUIDATE BECKY. Lick your wounds, and move on. Stick with transacting deals.. it's what you're good at. If you wait, this thing will take you down and YOU'LL NEVER RECOVER.

Anonymous said...

IHTBYB you seem to love becky. I'm not sure if she really was silly about this, she being one of the golden of Bend, probably really saw this deal as a 100% sure thing, hell even the city would buy it if no one else as affordable-housing.

I think the implosion just caught the WHOLE new-guard off balance.

Since 2002 these new people running city-hall reminded me of DOT-COM, the old-timers were obstacles, no limits to these people, secret meetings, developers running the city, taxpayer money used as marketing, ... Bend is Aspen.

Becky saw herself as becoming a billionaire. Now of course she'll be in the poor house the rest of her life, its not clear that her LLC's are structured like those of Hollern or Holz-Tek.

I really think all these people thought they had this stupid little town in the Bag. Hell the CONDO-HO's completely destroyed the river corridor. What's her selling point now? Close by shopping at on outlet store? Targeting the rich.

Why would a senior citizen want to live at the plaza.

I have long said all along that ALL the buildings near the OLD-MILL area, should be the site of a world-class university. The plaza could be the administration building.

Condemn everything in the old mill by imminent domain, and create University of Oregon @ Bend.

dartagnan said...

"Condemn everything in the old mill by imminent [sic] domain ..."

Now THERE's a fucking brilliant idea. Eminent domain doesn't mean the city gets it for free. Do you have the vaguest idea how much the Old Mill District would be worth?

dartagnan said...

I realize I'm not a real estate expert like all the other posters here, but would it really be the smartest move to unload Juniper Ridge right now, in the midst of a real estate blowout? The carrying charges to the city are nil, or close to it, so why not let it lie fallow for a few years and try to get a better price?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And she has sold A SINGLE UNIT according to BendBB's data: MLS 2607359.

Since Feb. One unit sold according to BendBB data.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

IHTBYB you seem to love becky.

Well, as Moe Syzlak would say: I don't wish her any specific harm.

She's a tolerable person, she screws people who list with her (making her a decent person to look to for "bargains"... just not HER stuff...), but she is a hard-charger & works very hard. She has succeeded in a brutal business, largely building what she has today by herself. I respect her accomplishments.

And like anyone, she is flawed. Her BS about selling MOST of her units... and then RAISING her Plaza prices when I KNOW she would lambast any listing she had that would even THINK about doing that...

She's a hypocrite. But a likable hypocrite... mostly. She's going to get some Major Comeuppance though... The Plaza will be her undoing.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I realize I'm not a real estate expert like all the other posters here, but would it really be the smartest move to unload Juniper Ridge right now, in the midst of a real estate blowout? The carrying charges to the city are nil, or close to it, so why not let it lie fallow for a few years and try to get a better price?

That's a GREAT IDEA! But do you realize that by STATE LAW we have to have 20 years supply of industrial land available, and JR is IT? We HAVE TO do something with it. It's the only option. The City Council is doing something... The Worst Possible Thing Imaginable.

Anonymous said...

I don't know who is MORE intellectually lazy YOU or HBM.

BEM: Fuck man! Gimme a break!

*

To quote Duncan, BEM is our professor, slow, deliberate, coherent, ... writes well. I just think he could do more reporting on JR, that's all I'm asking for.

I compared him to HBM ( H BRUCE MILLER ) the mini-me editor of the SORE, who always writes well, but doesn't ever quite go past that in front of his nose.

Anonymous said...

Do you have the vaguest idea how much the Old Mill District would be worth?

*

When this bubble is done playing out, and all those outlet stores in the OM are boarded up, very, very little.

Anonymous said...

FYI key to players

BEM - homers boss

IHTBYB - homer

bendbust - bart

duncan - ned flanders

dartagnan - barney

timmy - crusty

bendbb - barney's boyfriend

sally - lisa

Did I miss anyone?

Anonymous said...

That's a GREAT IDEA! But do you realize that by STATE LAW we have to have 20 years supply of industrial land available, and JR is IT?

*

There are a zillion state laws that these bird-brains running city-hall have been ignoring for years.

Like I have said, until an City Attorney is hired, that actually tells these dodo's waiting to go to prison to follow the law, the law-breaking will continue.

With regards to a 20 year supply of industrial, our 20 year supply of Brooks crap-shacks more than makes up for the lack of industry. Given our primary manufacturing in Eastern Oregon is METH, Brooks has provided us with MORE than 20 years of supply.

The State Law don't mean shit in Bend, all the means shit in Bend is the person supplying pussy and dope to city-hall, that person is what matters in Bend.

Duncan McGeary said...

Anyone else notice the grand total of 124 building permits taken out in Sept. for Deschutes, Crook, Jefferson, and Lake Counties? (Lake County, WTF?)

I'm trying to imagine the tens of thousands of workers dividing that work. Hundreds of construction firms and subcontractors, thousands of real estate agents, hundreds of banks and mortgages. Yikes.

46 in Bend. Who was it that was arguing the 50% figure? O.K. It's officially 50%. This year. Add that to the huge percent from last year.

Anonymous said...

Ouch, this is going to hurt. Looks like it is going to be a tough winter for subs like me. I think 2008 is going to be a lot worse than 2007.

Anonymous said...

Gone, and NOT coming back.

End of lumber mills spell end to way of life
The demise of the region's timber industry continues

The Oregonian Staff

JOHN DAY -- Don Bodewig strides across a catwalk above idled machinery in a cavernous sawmill where the only noises come from buzzing fluorescent lights and his boots touching on grated steel.

"It almost has an eerie feeling," says Bodewig, Eastern Oregon Regional Manager for the D.R. Johnson Lumber Co., which shut down this mill and four others across Oregon this summer.

The closures marked more milestones in the slow death of the region's timber industry: a few less mills, a couple of hundred fewer jobs and the gradual disappearance of a way of life.

D.R. Johnson has since reopened three of the mills, but two -- here in John Day and another in Wallowa -- are shuttered indefinitely.

"It's a disaster for our rural economies," said Bodewig, who holds out hope that the mills, where the smell of sawdust and machine oil is still fresh, might yet be revived.

But before that could happen there would likely have to be a major reversal in the national political and economic trends that led to the closures in the first place, an eventuality Bodewig admits isn't likely.

Demand drops

Oregon mill operators are faced with dropping demand for their product as U.S. home builders have put the brakes on new construction. Sales of new homes dropped 8.3 percent in August from July, the Commerce Department reported Thursday, and the national housing slump is the worst in years. "The market conditions are in the tank," said Bodewig.

During the building boom that preceded the current slump, prices for lumber were high and eastern Oregon sawmills paid a premium to import logs from across the West. But with demand dropping, mills in remote places such as John Day can't compete while paying high trucking fees to bring raw materials in and send finished product out.

And the timber tap from local forests has largely run dry. Once comprising nearly a third of Oregon's total timber harvest, eastern Oregon now makes up just about 13 percent of the state's haul from the woods. Private lands, which buoyed log supplies through the 1990s, are exhausted, said Gary Lettman, economist with the Oregon Department of Forestry

Anonymous said...

Japanese are completely shutting down ALL US MTG.
Now wait for the Chinese. Soon there will be NO source of MTG money anywhere. No more good money thrown at Brooks Resources. This week US government and Citi tried to pool $100Billion, that is nothing. When the US Treasury has a $2 Trillion dollar pool, then and only then will confidence return. Until then, we have to wait for this to play out, which means 5-10 long years.

Nomura Holdings a casualty of US subprime crisis
International Herald Tribune - 1 hour ago

Bloomberg News, AP TOKYO: Nomura Holdings, the largest Japanese brokerage, said Monday that it would shut down its mortgage-backed securities business in the United States, the latest casualty of the subprime mortgage crisis that is rippling across the ...

Anonymous said...

In what will remembered as the finest day Bend/Redmond history homeless event this weekend attracted 1500 homeless men, women and children of the Redmond/Bend area. This is the fastest growing group of citizenry in the region. Those with money are expected to leave, those who cannot afford to move or have no place to go are expected to move to the street. Officials are planning 200% growth per year.

Redmond 'homeless connect' event sets records

Event to help homeless makes history

Variety of services were offered at Saturday's 'Project Homeless Connect' event
Variety of services were offered at Saturday's 'Project Homeless Connect' event

By Jennifer Burns, KTVZ.COM

Thanks largely to one Bend woman's vision, hundreds of Central Oregon community members made history Saturday, in the area's first-ever mass effort to help 1,500 of the region's homeless and poor get needed services, all in one spot.

Cindy Pasko dove into the effort head first, just four months ago. Now she's played a key role in what's believed to have been the nation's biggest "Project Homeless Connect" effort.

Anonymous said...

Deschutes, Crook, Jefferson, and Lake Counties? (Lake County, WTF?)
*

Actually Lake Country ( Lakeview ) had been hot, remember the southern part of the lake is in cali, and that region has been the hottest in the nation, look at an over-value / foreclosure color chart, and you'll see that the far NE corner of cali is red-hot with foreclosures.

There was much spill-over into Lakeview, which is the biggest city in the region, south there is Susanville, and Reno is the closest big city.

Bend is very much part of Lakeview, all part of the same Great Basin desert system.

Anonymous said...

This sounds smart if true, Merenda at peak had 80 people, this guys going to have a HUGE place, and only have fifteen employees. I wonder if he's counting the mexican dish washers, or if they're under the table? Note the $2.50/sq-ft, obviously lease price on new stuff is going down.
There are two shoulders in Bend-Economy tourism jun/july, and dec-15->Jan5, Let's hope he catches that first wave. Like Duncan says, it always take longer to open than you think, they haven't even started, and to be open in two months??

'Northwest indigenous’ is future restaurant’s concept
Entire ground floor of new downtown building to be occupied by eatery

By Anna Sowa / The Bulletin
Published: October 15. 2007 5:00AM
The Bulletin(c)Copyright 2030

A new restaurant is slated for downtown Bend, taking up the entire ground level of the newly constructed Bond Business Condominiums on the northwest corner of Bond Street and Greenwood Avenue.

The Decoy Bar & Grill will occupy 2,800 square feet of space on the first floor, offering “elegant pub fare,” says owner and Bend native Mark Anderson.

Anderson, 37, got his restaurant and bartending experience in Portland after moving there for college. He returned to Bend in 2004.

The restaurant, which Anderson hopes will open by Dec. 15, will offer fresh seafood, Oregon produce and wines, and meats cured in-house.

Anderson’s restaurant concept is “Northwest indigenous,” he said.

“The whole idea inside will be a more rustic feel, lots of brass, mahogany and an antiquated, distressed feel to the wood,” he said. “We’re sparing no expense to make it as beautiful and functional as we can.”

Anderson says he’s invested more than $600,000 on the project over the last 1½ years.

He will lease the space for about $2.50 per square foot, per month, according to the building’s broker. Tenant improvements for the interior will begin this week.

The restaurant will employ 15 to 18 people, Anderson said, adding that he will work the bar for the first six months or so. His wife, Alyssa, will work in the restaurant.

Anonymous said...

If Bend crashes hard and I get what I thought I wanted, am I just living it up in a sweet house in a decimated crime-ridden, depressing hellhole of a town?

*

Yes, but we'll continue to host the finest homeless events in the nation. Soon this region will be known nationally as better than Portland Oregon, for homeless comfort.

2002->2006 build and they'll come, 2007->2012 host and they'll come.

It doesn't matter who comes, warm-body's rich or poor either can justify perpetual building of crap-shacks.

Like the folks in New Orleans getting 100's of thousands of mobiles that quickly rotted, expect to soon see demand for 1,000's and 1,000's of homeless units, and expect Brooks to step in with the solution to the manufactured problem.

Noam Chomsky used to call this "Manufacturing Consent", I don't know what they call it these days.

All that matters is that Brooks keeps busy, besides at some point if we in-fill Central Oregon with Working Poor, desperate to pay government mortgages, that will in itself draw in industry seeking low wage locked down people.

What we really need 'quick' is a transportation system between Madras, Bend, Priny, La-Pines, Reddy that hourly transports all these people. The #1 issue I hear these days from the 'homeless' is that its hell getting from Redmond to Bend ( Siver Moon Brewery ), because or the lack of public transportation.

Build and they'll come, it was supposed to be the rich that came, I don't think that was ever the plan. Poor whites escaping LA, or Atlanta will come, they'll be given a 'home ownership' program courtesy of the government they cannot refuse. They'll become wage slaves forever. Those that don't participate will be sent to prison, and become workers in our privatized prison industry.

I can see in 10-20 years that Central Oregon be a low-wage industrial paradise. All we need is a Freeway system connecting RENO to the South, and I-84 to the North.

We don't have much in Central Oregon, but we have lots of desperate people who cannot leave, and we have lots of land, that literally cost nothing. The only thing missing is competitive transportation.

This bringing in the homeless reminds me of years ago when the Rajaneesh, brought in the homeless to beat the vote up in the Dalles. Do any of you 'old-timers' remember that? What I'm saying is that this is NOT the first time that central oregon brought in tons of homeless people or coddled them for political reasons.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

and meats cured in-house.... Anderson’s restaurant concept is “Northwest indigenous,” he said.

Deep fried chipmunks?

Anderson said, adding that he will work the bar for the first six months or so.

He's going to try to live the dream of Absentee Owner... hard to make that fly in the restaurant biz...

"We’re sparing no expense..."

Isn't that the motto from Jurassic Park right before everyone got eaten?

Anderson says he’s invested more than $600,000 on the project over the last 1½ years.

Oy! Doing what?

Anonymous said...

This guy is screwed right out of the gate. Bend will absolutely separate him from his money. There are only so many rich retirees and tourists to go around. The real estate agents and mortgage brokers that had money to frequent the bar at Anthony's and Merenda are noticeably fewer these days. This guy is completely deluded.

Timothy said...

I know it's probably just me, but I hate these places that try to serve everything when seafood is one of them. I hate eating a steak while I'm smelling fish. I can't eat at anything at Anthony's other than seafood because of that.

But yeah, sounds like this guy has puring money in steadily since the very top of the market. Poor bastard.

Duncan McGeary said...

I think I'd have a hard time dreaming up ways to spend 600k. Wow.

2.50 a foot is probably the going rate for anyplace that actually wants to rent. But, as usual, it leaves out the triple net, which for a restaurant is probably closer to .50 a ft than .25 a foot. (or higher?).

Looks like the guy hooked up at the peak, and is coming in on the downside.

Anonymous said...

The real estate agents and mortgage brokers that had money to frequent the bar at Anthony's and Merenda are noticeably fewer these days. This guy is completely deluded.

*

The REIT's keep building, all over downtown there are cranes, building more bars at street level, I should say high-end bars. With PIMP suites at the top. I can really see Bend becoming a destination Whore-House if stuff gets really bad.

A few years ago it was approved in SE Oregon, down near Fields. Northern Nevada allows rural prostitution.

We have all this excess commercial, pent-house condo's, street level bars, but we have NO GAMBLING, and NO obvious Prostitution.

We have REHO's that needed to eat, granted they're MILF's, but we have these retirees, a MILF would be just fine.

I can really see city-hall doing something like this, otherwise all downtown Bend will just be a cycle of Restaurant/Bars coming and going. There will always be an ex-cook, or bartender that thinks he can do it, and he always be able to con all the employees from the last place to quit and come over. The whole industry and its customers tend to get bored in six months.

How come nobody has mentioned the DEEP. This guy may have it right for a awhile. He got burnt bad managing 80 @ merenda, now with the place small, and minimal staff he might survive the ugly shit.

This new guy is going BIG, but allegedly with small staff, the reason that places have 80 people, is so that EVERYONE is on part-time, if you have a few people that means FULL-TIME, and that means BENEFITS, and that means you lose money.

p.s. For anyone wanting to get in the biz, there is ONLY one way to do it, 'family', and under the table, you work for food, and you pray for tips. No employees, means no payroll taxes, which means all gross receipt is yours. Just pay the rent, and pray frequently, I don't think there is any other way to survive in that business. I'm sure that Super-Burrito followed that formula.

Anonymous said...

Looks like the guy hooked up at the peak, and is coming in on the downside. - dunc


*

If that's true, then this guy could be a bellwether.

May be a good time to watch all thew new crane stuff coming online, like that albatross next to D&D that says "Best Penthouse suites in the City".

So much huge building going on downtown, and they all have to be bars, but as Merenda manager had observed ( now at deep ), if you don't keep it small, and a minimize employees you cannot make it in Bend.

Look at Merenda now even though they might have 10-20 tables full it looks empty, because they have 50 tables empty upstairs and down.

The cali thing of HUGE places where everybody goes out to watch people and drink $10/glass wine, isn't going to make it in Bend (38 degrees).

Bend is D&D, ... Even Deschutes has had a recent turn-over, and tough times, once the NEW PDX Deschutes opens, I can seriously see the Bend Deschutes getting remodeled, or just have a tasting room over at teh brewery.

Downtown Bend is never going to be Hollywood. Not with a 2-1/2 months of tourism, and the rest of the year the only people with money are geriatric blue-hairs.

Anonymous said...

I can't eat at anything at Anthony's other than seafood because of that.

*

I cannot imagine eating seafood ever in Bend. Want seafood go to Astoria or Newport, where its fresh.

Any seafood in Bend, is as fresh as anything you can buy at Trader Joes.

Frozen Fresh or fresh frozen, its your call.

I think this is why the most popular item at the DEEP is Bacon Fried Tempura. Safe desert Sushi.

Anonymous said...

2.50 a foot is probably the going rate for anyplace that actually wants to rent. But, as usual, it leaves out the triple net, which for a restaurant is probably closer to .50 a ft than .25 a foot. (or higher?).

*

What do you think they stuck him with? 3yr triple-net, 5, 10, ??? 20 ??

I hope this guy is a BIG line of credit, and investors with deep pockets, that said look at what Kuratek and Hollern do, ...

LLC and Frequently, no personal signature, have 100's of LLC's that don't connect back to your real name. Refuse to sign a personal note,

What me worry?

This is how business is done in Bend. Anybody that signs a personal note in Bend, is NOT acting like a Bend businessman.

Traditionally Banks mandated and lessors that that fiduciary responsible party signed leases, and not some LLC that could bankrupt itself and cut losses on a whim. That said, I really think the REIT's go along with all this, because they can pass back the actual loss to the investor, which is really what the REIT biz is all about "Long term investment, Short term loss".

Thus a lot of these new buildings are more than glad to lease them for ten years to an LLC, because in a bankruptcy then can pass back the loss to the investor, who can use it as a tax-shelter.

In summary all these commercial buildings being built all over Bend, are just tax-shelters.

A few of these REIT's are bought by granny, but soon she'll know better she doesn't invest for a loss, only income.

But doc's, lawyers, dentists, cpas,... they need losses to defer their income tax.

Duncan McGeary said...

Median start-up costs for a restaurant are 225,000. The top of the chart were the 'upper' type restaurants, and they only went to 550,000 start-up costs.

For restaurants that do 3700.00 a night, 365 days a year.

How does one spend 600,000 on 2800 sq. ft.? Gold fixtures? Handcrafted tables? Antique plates? Original art?

I keep saying, the more money you have, the more money you can lose.

Anonymous said...

Everyday last week the cover of the WSJ was "SUBPRIME USA COLLAPSE", of course the stock market held. Todays cover of the WSJ is "1987 WILL NEVER repeat itself", then this little blurb tonday on Bloomberg that Japan the second biggest economy in the world is terminating the US MTG biz. This is an ominous sign, this is the biggest news today. If your in the stock market watch out.

***
Nomura Holdings a casualty of US subprime crisis
International Herald Tribune - 1 hour ago

Bloomberg News, AP TOKYO: Nomura Holdings, the largest Japanese brokerage, said Monday that it would shut down its mortgage-backed securities business in the United States

Anonymous said...

Nomura Holdings, the largest Japanese brokerage, said Monday that it would shut down its mortgage-backed securities business in the United States
*
This could be the end of easy money for Bend Oregon, the Chinese will follow. The US citizens have no money.
Sure doc's, cpas, and dentist can buy REIT's, but if their customer is broke, even a shark cannot eat.
It's going to get very interesting between now and turkey-day.

Anonymous said...

How does one spend 600,000 on 2800 sq. ft.?

*

Maybe he's factoring in the cost of the lease obligation he signed up front, it is a cost, and its not going away.

Note too the way I read the story is that he's spent $600k to date, and nothing yet has been done on the inside, and it opens Dec 15, aka two months.

As always its Bend, where everything that comes from the BULL smells like rotten fish, its takes all of Springfield to figure out what's really going on.

Bart said...

Did the below get signed off? Acceptable by all?? Is BEM ok with being Homers boss? Duncan of course is Flanders.

............

FYI key to players

BEM - homers boss

IHTBYB - homer

bendbust - bart

duncan - ned flanders

dartagnan - barney

timmy - krusty

bendbb - barney's boyfriend

sally - lisa

jen - marge

Did I miss anyone?

Timothy said...

Works for me. I'm not Jewish, but I am circumsized, so close enough.

Anonymous said...

Bend drafts scaled-back Juniper Ridge plans


Bend officials propose reducing size of Juniper Ridge project, but says city must add land elsewhere to meet demand
Bend officials propose reducing size of Juniper Ridge project, but says city must add land elsewhere to meet demand


Bend officials on Monday proposed a significant scaling back of their ambitious goals at Juniper Ridge - and a leading critic of the expanded city effort calls it "a good start" toward addressing their concerns, though with several key issues remaining.

A draft of the "policy summary" up for discussion by city councilors on Oct. 15 notes that "many stakeholders expressed concerns" about the proposal last spring to add 840 acres at Juniper Ridge to the city's urban growth boundary, for a total of 1,340 acres at Juniper Ridge (500 already having been added to the UGB).

"In response, city staff has discussed an alternative scenario that would propose only about 400 additional acres at Juniper Ridge for inclusion in the UGB," for a total of 900 acres. Of that total, residential and R&D/industrial lands each would make up about 275 acres, with the rest for a town center and commercial/office space (50 acres each), 35 acres for education, 90 acres of open space and 125 acres for right of way.

"I guess it's a good start," said Oran Teater, a former mayor who's been involved in petition signature gathering, signs popping up around town and a Website (http://www.dojuniperridgeright.com), all urging the city to go back to its original plans for a 500-acre, mostly industrial land project at the city's north end, 17 years after Deschutes County transferred the 1,500-acre property to the city for public purposes.

"I'm not pleased with the whole thing, but the world is paved with compromise," Teater said. "They were smoking funny cigarettes if they thought they were going to bring that much land into the UGB," noting that even the city's planning commission had not endorsed such a move."

The proposal has been drafted by City Manager Andy Anderson and former city official Ron Garzini, brought aboard as a "manager of special projects" who has been working to see if opponents' concerns could be addressed and the gap narrowed.

"This is how much you can get done," Teater said. "I'm still not happy with the percentage of residential vs. commercial. It should be less than 50-50." (The earlier proposal called for 350 acres of residential land in the mix).

Among the changes: a policy guideline saying "the General Fund and credit-worthiness of the city should not be put at risk by the project." Also: "Assuming adequate transportation capacity is available" - still an issue at the traffic-clogged corner of Highway 97 and Cooley Road - ‘the project shall provide sufficient ‘shovel-ready' industrial land to address market demand."

With the scaled-back plans at Juniper Ridge, the draft report says "several hundred acres elsewhere in the Bend urban area would have to be included in the employment lands UGB amendment to meet the demand identified" by the city's study.

Another big change is in the split of profits. The developer, Juniper Ridge Partners, "will now participate in only the first $100 million of profits, rather than $175 million, in exchange for a higher percentage of profits in the first $100 million (but investor is still only making the same amount of money" as outlined in the memorandum of understanding.

"This enables the smaller deal to move forward with a smaller UGB expansion, since the investor can now recoup the same $30 million investment on less land," the document states.

The proposal also calls for a "board of governors," experts who will act as directors for the project, reviewing budgets, making recommendations to the city council and meeting at least quarterly with the developer to monitor progress and consider purchase offers, "ensuring that anyone interested in purchasing land will have that opportunity."

In fact, the document notes that the "developer is required to sell at least 75 percent of the single-family (housing) land and 75 percent of the industrial land to others. This creates a lot of opportunities for local builders."

Teater said he hopes the council will "tweak the draft a little bit, let the community give input, come out with the final DDA (disposition and development agreement), and give the community three or four weeks to go through it and take public testimony."

While Teater is encouraged by Garzini's involvement, he added, "I still don't like the fact they're going to give this guy (developer Ray Kuratek) a free ticket to do all three phases over 30 to 40 years."

"It should be a phased project," the ex-mayor said, letting the developer do the first third, for example. "If that goes well, you have a shot at the second (phase), but ... you don't get a free ride for the next 30 years if you don't perform."

Teater's other concerns are the city's "pie in the sky" plans ot lure a high-tech university, adding, "There's not an example where that's worked in the United States." He'd prefer to set aside land for a future higher education component.

The former mayor also is concerned that some of the restrictions, such as "green building" requirements, will add to construction costs. "All of a sudden, you have a real expensive development, competing with others who may give (them the) land."

Anonymous said...

While Teater is encouraged by Garzini's involvement, he added, "I still don't like the fact they're going to give this guy (developer Ray Kuratek) a free ticket to do all three phases over 30 to 40 years."

*

30 or 40 years of Kuratek??

We need to send him packing today!

$2.5M to get rid Kuratek will be the best investment bend has ever made.

Timothy said...

Along with Nomura's withdrawal, Citi got hammered today on subprime. And there's a lot more talk about the banks that are going to try to get together to make a market for the commercial paper that's been stuck. No one even knows what the right price is for that stuff that hasn't been trading, but, by gum, they're going to try to figure it out.

For the intellectually curious who are interested in how the world of finance works, check out "The House of Nomura: The Inside Story of the Legendary Japanese Financial Dynasty by Albert J. Alletzhauser." Not sure it's in print, but there should be tons of them floating around the used bookstores.

Anonymous said...

No one even knows what the right price is for that stuff that hasn't been trading, but, by gum, they're going to try to figure it out.

*

A few months ago 30 cents on the dollar tops, but there really was no market, and thus pennys on the dollar.

My take for the reason of the $100B today by citi is to keep the banks flush with CASH because granny letters went out and they have to cover redemption of the MTG-CDO-PAPER.

Note that ALL prior infusions during the last three months were all to cover redemptions.

Even $100B isn't enough, they're just hoping to have enough cash on had that banks don't have to close or declare a bank 'holiday'.

With regards to pricing, yes how does the USA market even know what to pay for Nomura when they sell or walk away?

Anonymous said...

We'll it was 37% last time looked, and now its 28%, that means that today granny is looking at having lost 70% of her capital, How many folks will stick around to watch the equivalent of a dot-com stock go to zero?? Note this is the ABX-BBB which is what things are worth in theory on the phone, practically speaking because there is no market the true is closer to zero.

This is why the markets are fearful this week and last. Your going to see more bank's world-over do what the Japs are doing today, and the Chinese soon GET the Hell out of USA sub-prime.

It's going to be virtually impossible to get MTG money for Bend ( SUBPRIME MECCA ) very soon.

The world has been subsidizing the USA credit-card. The party is over, the people who have been paying the bills have turned off the lights.

***
Housing Derivatives - ABX BBB- Tranches Making New Lows

The ABX Index is a series of credit-default swaps based on 20 bonds that consist of subprime mortgages. A decline in the ABX Index signifies investor sentiment that subprime mortgage holders will suffer increased financial losses from those investments. Likewise, an increase in the ABX Index signifies investor sentiment looking for subprime mortgage holdings to perform better as investments.

This week, all of the BBB- tranches settled on lifetime lows. Three of the four BBB tranches settled on life-of-contract lows. As quoted before, these tranches appear to be in a race to zero or to some salvage-like value that is essentially zero. The 07-1 series appears to be the weakest of the bunch, with the BBB- at 28%. Source: Markit.

Timothy said...

>>With regards to pricing, yes how does the USA market even know what to pay for Nomura when they sell or walk away?

I don't know for sure, but my assumption is that these big banks are taking writedowns to clear it ALL off the books. Then some low-ranking kids will be in charge of dribbling it out for the next 10 years.

The hedge funds can't do that because they would be instantly insolvent. Not only do they have crap, they borrowed to buy the crap.

For anyone who doesn't know, Victor Niederhoffer went "kaboom" again, just about ten years after his Asian Contagion blow-up.

Anonymous said...

It's getting close to 1/2 Trillion dollars so far to cover the redemptions. It has LONG been speculated that the bubble is about 2 Trillion. Thus for those that bailed out to date, and got say even 1/2 their money back, they'll actually look good.

The time will come very soon, that banks simply cannot keep borrowing from the FED at low rates and leave all this debt on their books.

The FED is printing worthless dollars, the Banks are incurring debt to hold worthless paper. The 'investors' are withdrawing quicker than money is coming in the door.

The international community is dumping their US paper assets, and heading for the door. The last man standing, and holding the bag is going to be very obvious very soon.

With DUBYA's 2 Trillion dollar war, I don't think this economy can carry the withdrawals all the way down.

I really think we'll be at the diminishing returns point soon, where the large banks that wrote MTG-CDO paper are going to declare a bank holiday.

The foreigners will NOT return for a generation or amnesia, which ever comes first.

Timothy said...

>>This week, all of the BBB- tranches settled on lifetime lows. Three of the four BBB tranches settled on life-of-contract lows. As quoted before, these tranches appear to be in a race to zero or to some salvage-like value that is essentially zero.

Yeah, and there's so MUCH of that shit that no matter what "intrinsic" value might be, it HAS to go to zero because there's forced selling on this crap from here to eternity. No one wants it. Everyone wants to lose it. HAS to lose it.

Actually, I have heard of a couple hedgies who are willing to buy the stuff now, but they can take, I imagine, an infinitesimal amount. So they can be picky as hell. Still, they better not do it with leverage, or they're in the game as long as a balloon in a game of paintball.

Anonymous said...

The hedge funds can't do that because they would be instantly insolvent. Not only do they have crap, they borrowed to buy the crap.

*

I haven't even gone over to the hedges, this is where granny gets a letter that says SHE owes money, that's a whole another world of crisis.

Hey Granny, remember that $500k that you gave us for your 10%/yr guaranteed hedge? Well the principal is gone, and you owe $4.5M as we had you 10to1 leveraged, and our Portfolio is now worth zero. You'll not be hearing from us anymore our lawyers have sold your debt to a factoring-company.

p.s. we have moved to bermuda, thanks for the biz.

sincerely,

Anonymous said...

I have heard of a couple hedgies who are willing to buy the stuff now, but they can take,

*

There is only one contrarian fund that I'm aware that is sitting good, this guy bought a ton of PMI contract's last year, and they went up 10X. They trade just like stocks.

I guess if you could pick through the CDO-MTG's, but all we here is they're so convoluted, and you know that the basis of all this stuff was lies from origination.

I think that as a service company if me and you started a biz today, that just went in an forensically analyzed this shit you could make a lot of money. I think that 'funds' that setup themselves, will charge enormous management fee's to do the do-diligence, but the money will be made on service.

Other than that guy who made a ton of money buying PMI futures long term when they were cheap, I haven't heard of anyone else getting rich so far on the bubble blowout.

There will be lots of talk about buying this so called 'toxic mortgage paper', but its really very much like working at a Iraqi morgue and looking for gold teeth and jewelry. By the time our boyz get this stuff, its been picked over at the street level.

Anonymous said...

Here is good news for Bend, oil is almost $90, Turkey is going to Invade Kurdistan ( Iraq ), the Israelis are going to bomb more of Syria and Palestine, and the US is going to invade Iran.

Anyone want to predict oil in Spring 2008? How this will effect Bend tourism?? Our holy grail.

***

Oil smashes $86 for the first time
3:28pm: Crude prices reach record high on worries about declining oil inventories, OPEC production warning; Turkey-Iraq tension

Timothy said...

M&G won big for their SPI fund. There are a lot of hedgies. Not all of them got caught flat-footed.

I gotta wonder if anyone trusts their software anymore that values this stuff. These guys were all flying with similar software.

The damned software is probably saying "spreads will narrow." You can't trust that now.

Anonymous said...

Regarding the Nobel prize on economic's for the new buy/sell theory here's what Galbraith said when he plugged the Subprime Mtg's into the model. He's saying that the outcome could have been predicted with this new model...

...

James Galbraith: What we have in the subprime crisis is the innovation of particular types of mortgages that are meant to basically trap people into loans, which look good for the first few years, but then when interest rates rise and suddenly they become unpayable. That's a question of the rules not having been developed, not having been enforced that would protect vulnerable low-income people from what essentially were fraudulent practices.

Anonymous said...

M&G won big for their SPI fund.

*

How are they doing today?? Ok, that's two funds the guy that made the bet on long PMI contracts back in 2006 and caught shit at the time, but then in 2007, was a winner, and SPI ... are there any other's that have made a fortune since the bubble popped august 2006?

Anonymous said...

Mark Anderson will bait and switch your order just like your mortgage.

Guest: I will have the duck
MA: sounds good sir

Guest: This looks and tastes like pigeon
MA: well, russian scammers have make duck impossible to get since you placed your order and so I just set you up with pigeon...and it will cost you more.

Anonymous said...

These guys were all flying with similar software.

*

Nobody ever got fired for buying IBM, ...

I'm sure it's the same with this SW,

That said, the original issue was WHO made a fortune, I know the guy that did the future contracts on PMI made 10X for his fund, I don't know specifics of your SPI.

I suspect everyone in hedges were using a consistent SW, but certainly they all had it turned differently.

Besides whats the issue the best minds that money could buy imploded LTCM back a few years ago, and thus once and for proved that brains don't make the big bucks.

Behind ALL great fortunes is/was a criminal enterprise, ... Kuratek comes to mind as the next family of Bend after Hollern. The way things are going, not bad for a guy that came to Bend in 2004 covered with nutting but feathers & tar.

The KURATEK family has been given in contractual paper the first right of refusal for all development in Bend into perpetuity, and a percentage of profit with NO performance metrics ever even in consideration!

Anonymous said...

How M&G played CDOs to profit during the crisis
Reuters UK, UK - Oct 2, 2007
The SPI fund managed by M&G Investments, for example, chalked up a gain of more than 25 percent in net asset value on a strategy of buying a risky CDO ...

*

This is what I was afraid of, 25% for the risk doesn't impress me, now the guy that made his clients 1000% on buying PMI contracts long in 2006, that was impressive.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


Another big change is in the split of profits. The developer, Juniper Ridge Partners, "will now participate in only the first $100 million of profits, rather than $175 million, in exchange for a higher percentage of profits in the first $100 million (but investor is still only making the same amount of money" as outlined in the memorandum of understanding.


Great. So Kuratek gets paid off earlier. How is this better?

Anonymous said...

holy crap, oil at 86. I wonder how long until we see 3.50 a gallon again?

Anonymous said...

Great. So Kuratek gets paid off earlier. How is this better?

*

Pleeeeeze HOMER, Pleeeeeeze tell me, and/or find out what in the hell that Kuratek has on this city?

I have called him Rasputin for a long fucking time. Is it pussy, good cocaine? What in the hell does this guy have.

Everyone Teater, Garzini, everyone that meets Kuratek becomes entranced like he is a fucking Rasputin, remember all of the czars were slaughtered that followed Rasputin.

Will somebody @ city-hall please pinch themselves.

Please HOMEE please tell me what the fuck KURATEK has on these people like Jim Clinton??????

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Here is good news for Bend, oil is almost $90

I CLEARLY remember Katrina-time, oil bulls shrieking about $100/bbl oil... and being dismissed as "edge case freaks". Even I thought 3 digit oil was pretty alarmist.

And here we are within spittin' distance of $100/bbl. Keep in mind that Bend is basically a very nice place at the end of a 150-300 miles Dead End road.

Also keep in mind "alarmist" claims of $190K medians for Bend...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Pleeeeeeze tell me, and/or find out what in the hell that Kuratek has on this city?

Got me! I wish I knew. I figure it's a big skeleton in the collective closet of City Hall... or kickbacks. Plain old kickbacks would be easier to coerce a decent sized group like that, than scare the hell out of them w/ blackmail...

Anonymous said...

Oil ai all time high, gold back to almost 1980 high, dollar parity with Canada for the first time since 1976. I need to find my afro wig and learn to disco dance. 1970's stagflation is a comin'

Timothy said...

My only point was that there will be some winners. FT had a rundown of several of them. But they're swamped by the losers, of course, so I think we're in agreement that the commercial paper is a disaster.

Some people will set up to buy the crap. In my opinion that's a terrible mistake It's like buying salt water in the middle of the ocean. If you want to sell, how do you dump it?

Timothy said...

>>I need to find my afro wig and learn to disco dance. 1970's stagflation is a comin'

Do it.
Do it.
Do it.

Do the hustle!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TsRdkrxl4g

Timothy said...

So what's the deal with Brooks Real Estate office?

Things moving fast now.

Anonymous said...

The below form Sisters, this is a big one, as we all like to watch the Nugget, and just wish for a moment that the BULL or SORE would even for a day let the truth flow. The story is an outfit called Guttenberg wants to build a college of Dubya Bible Thumping Bendbb Butt-fucking Christian Parasites in Sisters, and the town is UP in ARMS! [ When I say "bendbb butt fucking", I'm not picking on healthy 'gay' relationships, only bendbb/dubya Abu-Ghraib non-willing sadistic sodomy, you know W-SEX. ]

Just what Sisters & Central Oregon needs is a breeding ground for criminality sexuality with the full support of the baby w-jeezus.

*

More Christian fundamentalists (in the form of Gutenberg College) will not help Sisters.

If these were people focused on the teachings of Christ - and specifically the Second Great Law - then we could have confidence that they would help spread tolerance. But they seem to be more Bible-followers, and we have plenty of those already (both locally and nationally). Bible-followers can find justification for almost any bigotry in the non-Gospel parts of the Bible and conveniently ignore Christ's teaching.

Indeed, there's more need to evangelize and convert Bible-followers than any other group! We could stop the anti-gay hatred, the legalization of torture, the slap-their-cheek-before-they-can-slap-ours foreign policy, if only this country were actually Christian!

Anonymous said...

I think we need to do some economic prediction on this fuel thing. It's going to go to $120 within three months.

1.) Israel is going to bomb the fuck out of Syria.
2.) Turkey is going to bomb the fuck out of North-Iraq, which will turn the one decent area of Iraq into all the rest of Iraq.
3.) DUBYA is going to bomb the fuck out Iran.

Now the hypothesis is this, and I'll need confirmation from the other members of Springfield. I predict that for every 10% increase in fuel cost that the area Tourism drop's 50%. Thus once oil goes over $100/B, which will translate into over $5/gal Bend area Tourism will drop from 1/2 Billion, to 1/4 Billion. ...

Note this past summer, the MAJOR basis of the 'tourism' was RV's, and auto shows at Drake Park. Bend tourism this past year was only about burning fossil fuel in a place known ( sometimes ) for clean air and views.

In summary NO MATTER HOW MUCH PR money the city of Bend spends, they ain't coming when fuel goes over $5/gal.

Let's take another angle, Bend's income $7/hr, that's means driving the average beater the driver will be spending more than he earns in an hour.

Another angle 'business in Bend' putting factory's in Bend, or even plane manufacturer's we always knew it wasn't competitive, but soon it will be so obviously dumb that even liars will not be able to sell their scheme.


A perfect storm is coming to Bend, Oregon.

The dollar is dropping like a rock, the japs are getting out of USA MTG, and BUYING ALL the OIL in non-volatile places ( this in today WSJ ).

Anonymous said...

So what's the deal with Brooks Real Estate office?

Things moving fast now.

*

I would watch "Brooks Investments", this where the action will be this is redemption month.

Anonymous said...

Slow sales spur lower prices in Prineville's IronHorse
By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin
Published: October 16. 2007 5:00AM PST

Builders at Prineville’s largest planned subdivision have cut prices across the board, hoping to unload homes so they can generate sales in a slow market and spur more construction.

Bend-based real estate developer Brooks Resources Corp. has been planning IronHorse, a 15- to 20-year project that would add up to 2,900 homes on the northeast end of Prineville, for more than three years.

Citing a “larger than expected inventory of homes and lots for sale” in a news release dated Friday and released Monday, the company said it will lay off its project manager by the end of October.

The company had projected at least 25 home or lot sales by the end of 2007 and so far has sold three homes and nine lots, said Randy Jones, project manager who will work with the company on a part-time basis through the end of the year. The company has prepared 203 homesites for development in the subdivision.

Each of the project’s three builders — Sun Forest Construction, Viking Construction and Sunwest Builders Development LLC — has reduced prices for their existing homes, said Steve Buettner, managing partner of Sunwest Construction.

“We’re trying to generate activity on our current inventory and get people living in our neighborhood,” Buettner said. “It’s all about momentum.”

The real estate market is a critical part of Crook County’s economy, Crook County Judge Scott Cooper said last week at an economic round-table involving business and community leaders.

National retailers are counting on Prineville’s population to grow before they sign leases at the 75-acre Ochoco Mill development, located south of IronHorse, John Shelk, managing partner of the Ochoco Lumber Co, said at the round-table. The Ochoco development is a concept similar to Bend’s Old Mill District.

Retailers, though, aren’t seeing enough new homes fill with people in Crook County, where home sales have plummeted with the rest of Central Oregon.

Crook County’s home sales fell 46 percent, from 226 to 121, during the first three quarters of 2007 compared with 2006, according to the Central Oregon Association of Realtors Web site.

But during that same period, the median home price in Crook County rose nearly 10 percent, from $191,695 to $210,000.

IronHorse builders hope their price reduction will create demand in a market where the median home price is less than Bend’s median of $349,000, and Redmond’s, at $253,000. Jefferson County’s median was $179,900, the Web site said.

Since breaking ground in June 2006, Brooks Resources has developed 57 homesites that could be sold to individual buyers or other builders, and 146 homesites that were developed to sell to the three builders, said Shauna Zinn, a broker and branch manager for Brooks Resources Realty in Prineville. So far, the company has sold 57 lots to Sun Forest, Sunwest and Viking. It has 89 left for the three builders, Zinn said.

The three builders have sold three homes since sales started in May, have two sales pending among 18 homes listed for sale. Brooks Resources has 48 homesites listed for sale and has sold nine of the lots to individual buyers, Zinn said.

Of the three homes sold so far, Sun Forest Construction has sold two and has another pending, Zinn said. The company also has two homes nearing completion, said Jeff Jernstedt, a planned communities sales agent for Sun Forest Construction. It is dropping the price of one home by 6.3 percent, from $249,825 to $234,000, he said.

“A lot of people need to see the finished product before they’re going to buy it,” Jernstedt said. “It’s going to take awhile to absorb that number of lots.”

Jones, who will be laid off after three years on the job, expects the project will be successful when the market recovers. But it won’t happen overnight, he said.

“If Brooks felt this was a short-term blip, they wouldn’t be making such a drastic choice,” Jones said. “But they felt that maybe it won’t be a 12-month problem. It could be 18 to 24 months or longer. It depends upon what prognosticator you talk to.”

Brooks Resources, also a partner in Yarrow, a planned 1,730-home community east of Madras, has seen sales at both projects start slower than expected, said Mike Hollern, chairman and CEO of Brooks.

The 203 homesites at IronHorse will take more than a year to sell, else Brooks Resources would have retained Jones, Hollern said.

“People whose jobs get impacted are the ones in charge of development,” Hollern said. “We won’t need to do much development in the next couple of years. In a declining market, you have to adjust the business model.”

The company also has cut two of its four positions from its owner relations department, which reviews architectural design standards of building plans submitted by builders for all Brooks Resources projects, Hollern said.

“This part of the country has an overbuilt supply of single-family homes,” Hollern said. “It’s going to take awhile. The investors are out of the market, but fortunately, people are still coming to town and they need a real house to live in.”

Anonymous said...

Pleeeeeeze tell me, and/or find out what in the hell that Kuratek has on this city?

Got me! I wish I knew. I figure it's a big skeleton in the collective closet of City Hall... or kickbacks.

*

I have several theory's.

1.) Alma-Mater, if you go back in the way back machine, there are connections to Hollerns cali MBA days and Kuratek. Also Russell comes in like the Bend-Living article Russel plays a bigger role in this than Holzman. Hollern is noticeable quiet, too quiet, but KNOW this that Hollern has LARGE sub-divisions in Planning Right NEXT TO JR!

2.) The folks that RUN EDCO hand-picked Kuratek, and said "This is your Man". You ALL must remember that Kuratek is/was a 'bad-cop' down in cali on 'bay meadows' project, his specialty is not backing down to locals, just what EDCO needs to push through the agenda.

3.) BIG MONEY, we know that Kurtek has been promised over $50Million in cash for his 'share of the profits', you know that this money is going to flow back. A lot of these bitches have professional careers all Abernethy has ever done is feed at the public trough, and Clinton wants to do the same. My guess is that Kuratek has promised them all privately that all that PROFIT will be used to fund their US SENATE races in the future.

There are so many reasons for sticking with this guy, he just shows up, and within a few months has everyone under his spell. He does have UBS connections, but so do a lot of people in Bend have connections, like Hollern.

In summary this is all a very twisted web; My advice to the lazy reporters of Bend, and they probably already know the truth, just like OR GOV Goldschmidt, everybody knew he was fucking a 12 year girl when he was mayor of pdx, but nobody talked. There are lots of skeletons in Bend. When we are finally told the truth by the BULL, we'll all slap ourselves for ignoring the obvious.

It's imperative to read the Bruckner story from the Bend-Living carefully. I think that the path of insight will be found in EDCO and Russell. I think a log of the players can be tracked back to cali days. Kuratek spent a lot of time around college campuses in cali. He bought a home in Bend in 2001, but did all his biz in cali until 2005, when Bend put him on the payroll ( $60k/mo ).

Most likely he knew Russell from cali, we need to know why he moved to Bend, and who he knew prior to moving here, then we can put the puzzle together.

Today EVERYONE past, present, and future kowtows to Kuratek. It's like the fairy-god-mother of Bend has 'made' him in the MOB sense.

Kuratek is the 'made' man, but why?

Anonymous said...

Homer,

Not that its important, and I do agree with your premise is that it doesn't matter who controls Bend, the fact that they're dumb enough to let it happen is the problem. That said this pervasive loyalty to Kuratek is an orchestrated event, not a simple case of a leisure suit larry being at the right place at the right time. I have always felt that Kuratek is a K-MART suited out of town huckster. The interesting thing is who owns Kuratek?? Who are his investors??

He simply has too much power for a happen-stance.

Thus not to bore you, but we do need to get to the bottom of this I really wish all in Springfield could focus on the essential question of the day.

WHO IS RAY KURATEK? WHO OWNS HIM? WHO brought him to Bend? Who introduced him to the circles of power in Bend? Who sponsored him and forced the ENTIRE city government to fall on their swords for his behalf??

Timothy said...

What a week. We have a token auction of "resort" condos, the rumor that Brooks is shutting down its RE office, and the slashing of prices in Prineville.

And they are slashing prices so they can built more! Laff riot. Yeah. They want to build a whole bunch more.

"Builders at Prineville’s largest planned subdivision have cut prices across the board, hoping to unload homes so they can generate sales in a slow market and spur more construction."

Anonymous said...

The real estate market is a critical part of Crook County’s economy, Crook County Judge Scott Cooper said last week at an economic round-table involving business and community leaders.

*

I love this guy, he's the over-seer of the entire Les Schwab reverse-engineering. He's here playing the greatest huckster for Brooks in order to sell RE.

You notice here that they don't mention the name of the 'round-table'?? Anybody want to bet its EDCO??

Too much conflict of interest here. A judge, whom gets to decide how Les Schwab's outcome will be determined, completely involved with the Group that's pushing Juniper-Ridge.

Crook County is small, but its fairly clear that Scott Cooper is running the entire region.

Anonymous said...

There's really too much to comment on today's post by the BULL here, who-ever posted it the greatest thanks.

ATTENTION SPRINGFIELD SHOPPERS.

In these BULL story's its imperative to recognize what the leave out, as this is whats important.

There's some excellent Hollern Quotes here, like ... "Investors are gone", which basically means that "Brooks Investments", is now deposit poor, and redemption rich.

Hollern says "People are still coming to town", which town Prineville? The weekend in Redmond was the largest home-less festival in history. Poor people are coming to central oregon, and poor people are being created. When will Brooks offer them housing?

Let's get back to 'investment', Brooks say's there are NO investors, so is going to buy? Over 80% Prineville was always speculation, and today there are NO investors, and they couldn't borrow money if they wanted to.

Anonymous said...

Krusty, can you post the story about Brook's closing down the RE shop in verbatim with all the background, or is there someone else in Springfield that has the story?

Timothy said...

They sold 3 houses and 9 lots. This story is just full of "fail."

Bye, bye Jones, Hollern sees the problem lasting 18 months, 24 months, or more! Maybe he's been looking at the housing futures, which have most markets down until 2011. A solid four more years.

It's time to put CO into suspended animation. This could be more Futurama than Simpsons.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Slow sales spur lower prices in Prineville's IronHorse

Thank you, Oh wise Copy Paster! Good piece...

Timothy said...

>>Krusty, can you post the story about Brook's closing down the RE shop in verbatim with all the background, or is there someone else in Springfield that has the story?

I first heard it at the end of last week. It's been circling the Bend rumor mills. No official word yet, but I think it's the whole shebang.

They have some good realtors. I assume some can get picked up by other outfits and some can go indy. But it's a Big Deal.

Anonymous said...

My suspicion of Brooks is that he's reducing public exposure.

They have buildings all over town, all separate LLC's, all with less than 50 people, they have to reduce visibility, and they have to reduce BURN-RATE of their remaining cash ASAP.

I do like Hollern, you got to admit he's a straight shooter, you just go to read his quotes, and ignore ALL the BULL from the BULL.

For months I have caught shit here for reporting on BR, but you folks need to realize that we cannot 'debate the bubble' without BR, because BEND is BR.

A buddy the other day gave me a notice about a Brooks Meeting Oct 22, at NWXC, they're trying to get approval ASAP to fill in that last stretch of land on the right of Skyline as your heading towards Summit High. This is ALL the empty Juniper Land East of NWXC, to be developed ASAP.

My guess is that Brooks is pulling ALL the plugs and getting EVERYTHING approved ASAP, as if M49 fails, and he doesn't have approval then his un-developed land will sit. My understanding of this last section of land east of NWXC was going to remain primitive as part of his 2002 Smart-Growth promise.

So much for promise, and so much for Smart Growth.

Todays its all DUMP at any price ASAP.

I don't think they'll actually develop the land east of NWXC, once they get the approval, then they can sell it. Without the magic of Hollern I doubt anyone else except maybe Kuratek could walk the deal through planning.

There's going to BE a HUGE rush right now to get every scrap of LAND in BEND approved, and dumped while you can.

The bottom-feeders ( REHO's, BROOKS, ... ) smell the end, and they know that a moratorium is coming once the political resignations start flowing.

There's going to be an incredible amount of pain, once the largest employer in the region starts laying everyone off.

Anonymous said...

They have some good realtors. I assume some can get picked up by other outfits and some can go indy. But it's a Big Deal.

*

I don't think so, I have lots of RE friends top performers in the city, and they're seeing the worst cash-flow in their working lives.

All the firms in town are dumping, everyone but the best performer.

I doubt anybody will pickup these people.

Ok, now here's my tip of the day, as I'm a survivor, the smart folk here will go indy and work out of their house. Those that try to keep these HIGH-BURN offices are FUCKED. All this commercial RE office stuff will now implode.

ALL this "RE is ART Gallerys" downtown will now implode,

Duncan hold on, because downtown is going to have a whole lot more paper in the windows.

A TIP FOR SURVIVORS:

Fellow Realtor friends, if you want to survive, then work from home, and work foreclosures with your favorite bank. In the early 1980's that was how the best money was made.

Anonymous said...

This could be more Futurama than Simpsons.

*

Does Futurama have the same writing quality? Would Homer approve?

Has the Simpsons ever done a RE-BUBBLE show?

I haven't yet seen the new Simpsons movie, I want to see it, but I generally wait for video. I do sort of know the plot from reading.

It may be that while Homer created the pollution which drove him out of Town, our little 'Springfield' here will be looking for a demon, sort of like Homer's picture this week of Kuratek being burned as a heretic by villagers. Sadly Kuratek has been kept off the radar as well has Hollern.

You have to wonder who will be the villain? Every good story needs a villain.

Anonymous said...

Slow sales spur lower prices in Prineville's IronHorse

Thank you, Oh wise Copy Paster! Good piece...

*

yes, double thanks, I can't speak for the rest of you, but I don't give the BULL money on principal

Anonymous said...

“People whose jobs get impacted are the ones in charge of development,” Hollern said. “We won’t need to do much development in the next couple of years. In a declining market, you have to adjust the business model.”

[ Remember he said this city-hall when he comes in everyday to planning to expedite the development of the remaining land in Bend. ]

“This part of the country has an overbuilt supply of single-family homes,” Hollern said. “It’s going to take awhile. The investors are out of the market, but fortunately, people are still coming to town and they need a real house to live in.”

[ Holy shit, we don't have REAL people, or REAL children, or REAL jobs, but KING HOLLERN makes "REAL HOUSES". This is a keeper. ]

NOTHING IN CENTRAL OREGON is REAL EXCEPT THE HOMES

WHAT DID I SAY A FEW MONTHS AGO ABOUT "HOLLERN-VILLE"?? THINK HOOVER-VILLES

There's a lot of anger here. I wonder when he'll quit giving quotes to the BULL? I suspect that Miller-Nash will soon be providing such advice [ Newbies, MN is super-lawyer, and BR's legal-team ]

Anonymous said...

Yes, BRR is closing.

But you hyenas can settle down. It doesn't mean real estate is going to disappear in Bend. Bend will be fine. Houses are still selling, no matter what you say.

Anonymous said...

I have a rhetorical questions for the family here.

Where are those that always tell us we're full of shit?

It's been noticeable absent of Kool-Aid drinkers, and True-Believers,...

Could it be time for us to go anti-bubble?

Anonymous said...

BULL layoffs will be here by xmas,

Given that most likely 50% of the RE shops that we knew from Jan-07, will have paper in the windows by turkey-day, this will drastically effect BULL gross income.

Expect the BULL to put its middle finger in the wind to find a new horse to follow.

Perhaps COSTA will realize that today is a good time to cover his ass, and start covering the people of Bend.

The days of sucking up to out of town leisure suit larry's is quickly coming to an end. In tough times its your neighbor that's going to help you.

Timothy said...

>>All this commercial RE office stuff will now implode.

There's a bunch of new commercial that looks like offices across from the DMV on Colorado. I drove past there yesterday and thought "who can they possible put in there?"

You guys are always talking downtown, and downtown will always have something, but I tell you these maniacs have been building commercial (maybe they got goosed into commercial when they realized residential lost its hotness) like crazy in all nooks and crannies and I think it's a killing field.

There are "For Lease" signs all over the place.

Anonymous said...

But you hyenas can settle down. It doesn't mean real estate is going to disappear in Bend. Bend will be fine. Houses are still selling, no matter what you say.

*

THANK GOD, I just wrote for a true-believer and as soon as I clicked submit I got the above. There is a god, there is a god. I'm moving to Sisters so I can be near Jeezus and the W-Thumpers.

Bend RE shops are fucked, WSJ had an excellent article two weeks ago, about how year-to-date FSBO is up over 50%. What's interesting is RE licenses are also up. I think what's going to happen is that indy's and fsbo will converge, and you'll see because of competition complete RE deals done for $99, and there will be not a fucking thing NAR can do about it.

Now MY point I have made, is not that RE will go away or Bend sales, MY point is that our 100's of BEND RE HO store-fronts will go away.

WRT wages the better Realtors will find 'rich' clients who might pay $1k for a deal, and the weaker k-mart realtors will get $99 and work at home. This is the future, get over it.

Yeh, there will always be Souteby's, but by&by the rich will realize they can save a few million.

RE commission is going to go as quick as high-end stock commission went, some smart guy will figure out how to deliver a $99 product like H&R Block, there are NO shortage of KMART realtors out there in KMART suits calling themselves wannabe Kuratek's.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

“But they felt that maybe it won’t be a 12-month problem. It could be 18 to 24 months or longer. It depends upon what prognosticator you talk to.”

I remember writing it would take "75 years" or so. Lucky they didn't talk to Paul-doh.

2,900 homes on the northeast end of Prineville...

The company had projected at least 25 home or lot sales by the end of 2007 and so far has sold three homes...

Since breaking ground in June 2006...


So they estimated 15 years, Paul-doh estimated 75 years.... and 2,900 homes/3 sales looks more like 1,000 YEARS!

Is it possible Paul-doh not bearish enough?

Yarrow falling apart. IronHorse going nowhere. I wonder if Brooks will go "wholesale" with these dogs? No way to sell the whole thing lock, stock & barrel.... maybe just 50-100ac at a time to builders. So they can go broke.

Anonymous said...

Timmy, I agree I have always advised that close-in, and downtown will be ok.

I really feel the entire Old-Mill which is just one BIG RE, MTG, and Title office, will become a ghost-town, which is why I think that the State should use it as UofO@Bend.

Yes, there are commercial office everywhere, look at McKay Park that shit has been empty since day-one, you are absolutely right.

Now that said, its like I said only yesterday, all these REIT's are designed to let shit sit empty and pass back the full loss of lease to the investors, doc, lawyers, cpa's that buy this shit are buying long-term appreciation, short term tax-shelter.

Problem of course is when a town is 50% un-occupied, the REIT's will eventually ALL pull-out at once.

We're still going to BE stuck with a lot of shit, which is why I predict that the post-resignation city-hall will impose a MORATORIUM ASAP.

A lot of people running Bend today are going to go to jail.

Anonymous said...

No way to sell the whole thing lock, stock & barrel.... maybe just 50-100ac at a time to builders. So they can go broke.


*

Builders I know were trying to DUMP their land over a year ago.

This all goes back to Ned Flanders rhetorical premise that Mike Hollern is/was SMART.

Hell this guy brought us NWXC, he paid out of town hucksters to SELL city-hall on Smart-Growth in 2002.

How fucking Smart is all this Ned?

( Dunc I really do love you, and I never know with your Socratic Method whether your being sarcastic or not )

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

IronHorse listings are here. They want $290K for homes I would not give $175K for. I mean these are just crapboxes. You can pay $290K in Bend, and actually get a bigger house & not have to drive 100 miles round trip to have a night out.

$290K? What are these guys thinking? 6% drop ain't going to get'er done. 50%? Maybe you'd have a chance. These things are prices like Prineville is "all that". IT AIN'T.

Anonymous said...

Houses are still selling, no matter what you say. - true believer

*

Nobody said that houses aren't selling.

Homer I think this one is for you.

Anonymous said...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

IronHorse listings are here. They want $290K for homes I would not give $175K for

*

On rational level, perhaps true believer is correct, we are reacting like hyenas this fine fall AM.

Today's BULL story could very well be a simple plant, just like the auction story.

Once again Brook-Resource Homes for sale become a page-one story.

Only in Bend.

Timothy said...

>>year-to-date FSBO is up over 50%.

I am seeing FSBO in the "golden people" areas where I never saw FSBO before. Some of the $800k buy-at-the-top people are using FSBO as they try to sell at a loss for $700. They can't AFFORD a Realtor--they're already going to lose big.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Yes, BRR is closing.

But you hyenas can settle down. It doesn't mean real estate is going to disappear in Bend. Bend will be fine. Houses are still selling, no matter what you say.


So being dead-motherfuckin RIGHT for 2 years makes us hyenas? How about you greedy-ass RE types that humped this thing for all it's worth, and are going to act as the impetus for the worst economic contraction in Cent OR HISTORY? Yeah... you motherfuckers are Totally Innocent. YOU motherfuckers DOUBLED DOWN ON RED AGAIN... not me. Paul-doh said, "Yo bitch, we made enough, let's take our chips & GO.", and you bitches said, "Fuck NO! We CAN'T LOSE! This bitch has come up red 11X in a row, there ain't NO WAY I CAN LOSE!".

Maybe you listen to Paul-doh as your Next Prognosticator... not your own selfish, stupid, greedy ass.

I love it. Stupid motherfuckers are actually starting to rationalize that this debacle is not their fault. I CANNOT WAIT for the day when I read in The Bulletin, that the blogosphere bears were the cause of this thing.

"Prognosticators"? That is a very veiled reference to US. Blogs have never even been acknowledged as existing in Bend mainstream media... "The Source" being a major exception. Blogs have been DEAD ASS RIGHT on this thing for 2 years, when every stupid ass "expert" in this town has been trying to reflate this souffle... and of course, DEAD ASS WRONG.

Unless this whole damn town burns down, The Bend Housing Bubble Bursting is The Most Important News Story In Cent OR for the next 20-30 Years!

Timothy said...

The BULL is watching this closely, you know. If you give money to the BULL, as my wife makes me do, you know that BRR pays for huge 4-color back pages, and sometimes blow-out ads and pamphlets.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I am seeing FSBO in the "golden people" areas where I never saw FSBO before. Some of the $800k buy-at-the-top people are using FSBO as they try to sell at a loss for $700. They can't AFFORD a Realtor--they're already going to lose big.

Yup... Paul-doh predicted same over a year ago. Got tarred-und-feathered... as usual. I still think these FSBO-types like Assist2Sell are the place to be in retail brokerage... they "may" actually grow thru this thing. 6%-ers... that is going bye-bye.

Timothy said...

I imagine it must be tough for the housing bulls to keep a stiff upper lip nowadays. There are 20 housing-is-death stories a day that hit the major news outlets.

Funny how the media works. As someone pointed out the other day, the graphic that shows the ARM reset schedule COULD have been printed in the paper in 2005 when everyone is bullish, but it didn't get printed in major papers until 2007 when everyone was already bearish. In other words, count on the paper to give you no news you can use, just a retrospective view of what kicked your ass.

Timothy said...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aa4nqqKqJLpY&refer=home

Foreigners Sold Record $69.3 Billion in U.S. Assets

So how does that all work out? Foreigners selling US assets while the Treasury ramps up sales.Sounds like bond rates going down and inflation up to me.

Maybe that's he only way to help the people losing their houses--inflate so much that wages start going up. Of course, then we won't be able to buy crap and we lose jobs.

Wow. It really is the late 70s again.

Will Bernanke have the balls to raise? Or will he get sucked down the path of least resistance?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Yeah... here's my 75 year absorption prediction for Priney:

Crook County CRAPFEST

Timothy said...

Well, Paul, you got that right.

3 sold. I can't get over that. How would you like to be the people in charge of trying to talk the national retailers into Prineville?

"Hello, Macy's? Hi. We're building a huge subdivision in Prineville. It's right next to Bend, which I'm sure you know is the hottest real estate market in the country."

"Yes. Yes. Well, we've just started selling. It's going to be a huge subdivision."

"Yes. Well 3 so far. We've just started selling and it's going to be huge. Also, 9 lots have sold. And we have top builders... Hello? Hello?"

Anonymous said...

Duncan,

How about a report on the Bend film-fest. I didn't go to any.

How did the show feel? Did they pack the theaters?

If you prefer to report this subject on Best-Min that would be fine.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And is ALL of Brooks Realty shutting down? Just a branch or two?

THAT IS AMAZING. Cuz if Brooks is shuttering, you KNOW that all those Big Imposing Edifices in the Old Mill are NOT MAKING RENT. Brooks makes TONS more than them. Brooks HAS made TONS more than them, and could hunker down for a Good Long Time. Hasson & Morris should be the next to go....

And brokerage is about the "safest" biz model in Cent OR RE, right now. "Safe" meaning ONLY HALF will be wiped out in the next 5 years.

Gat Damn.... when the Old Mill starts imploding... Wow. Your going to see major league shit hitting the fan. Becky's going to have to give away The Plaza....

Duncan McGeary said...

"How about a report on Bend film-fest."

Sorry, totally ignored the event.

Had a very busy Saturday, which I attribute to the fact that it was the first weekend this month they didn't close the streets.

You know, regular shoppers. For shopping. In a shopping district.

And they shopped!

Anonymous said...

Gat Damn.... when the Old Mill starts imploding... Wow. Your going to see major league shit hitting the fan. Becky's going to have to give away The Plaza....

*

Just the other day I reminded all how and why that the Old Mill should become a college campus. FUCK Juniper Ridge.

The Old Mill could/would be the best campus on the west-coast to quote the true-believers ( I always have a problem with Bend on the west-coast to me its in the Great-Basin, aka toilet ).

Ok, way back machine since Homer is bringing up old news, ...

Way back machine Old Mill to become University of Bend Campus

Note I have long predicted that ALL of the Old-Mill will become a ghost town, at that point by eminent domain, the State picks the place up. What an awesome fucking campus.

FUCK JUNIPER RIDGE, and KURATEK.

Anonymous said...

Will Bernanke have the balls to raise? Or will he get sucked down the path of least resistance?


*

Like 1970's it doesn't have a fucking thing to do with the USA. Everyone was dumping the dollar, the USA had blown its wad on Vietnam.

In order to attract foreign capital the USA had to have 20% interest rates.

These days the USA has a gun to the worlds head with NUKES, and has NOW control of 80% of the worlds oil.

Basically play by our game, or your fucked. Jap's if you don't buy fed-note, then we'll create jap-tariff, and fuck your oil supply. Chinese if you don't buy fed-notes we'll quit letting you make our shit.

It's completely different world now, but give the current situation about five years, and the USA will be leaving the middle east flat ass broke.

Also right now is an election cycle, so they have to keep interest rates down. Wait until late 2008 and you'll see them slowly go up. Looking out their will be NO end to high oil prices and high interest rates.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

City of Bend jumps on the Juniper Ridge PR/Marketing BANDWAGON!

DID YOU KNOW THESE FACTS ABOUT
JUNIPER RIDGE?

For more information on Juniper Ridge, click here.





1. Juniper Ridge will accommodate over 18,000 new jobs for Bend.

2. At build-out, Juniper Ridge will generate every year:

* A local economic impact of over $1.5 Billion
* Over $50 million in annual tax revenues to the City, County and State
* $5 million to schools, $3 million to police and fire, $1.5 million to parks, $600,000 to libraries, and over $3 million to the General Fund

3. Compared to the earlier all-industrial plan, the mixed-use Juniper Ridge master plan will have nearly twice the annual economic impact ($1.5 Billion compared to $800 million), and be completed in one third the time (30-35 years versus 80-90 years).

4. Of the estimated 2,550 vacant acres needed for housing and related uses in the proposed UGB expansion, only 350 acres would be at Juniper Ridge.

5. Juniper Ridge will generate over $50 million in fees (called System Development Charges, or SDCs) for local road improvements, sewer upgrades, and other City projects all outside of Juniper Ridge.

6. Juniper Ridge has been planned by Cooper Robertson & Partners, the nationally-recognized leader in new urbanist, traditional neighborhood development.

7. The design firms for Juniper Ridge have also successfully planned and implemented master plans for Harvard, Yale, Caltech, MIT, and Stanford, among many other universities.

8. All buildings, parks and infrastructure at Juniper Ridge will incorporate best practices in sustainable design.

9. The City expects its investment in Juniper Ridge to be repaid many times over by excess land sale revenues.

10. Juniper Ridge will be the home of the new Central Oregon Performing Arts Center, a 2,000-seat performance hall hosting music, dance, theater, lectures and other signature cultural events.

11. The project and the Developer, not the City, are guaranteeing a 20% return to the Investor. The General Fund is not at risk.

12. The majority financial partner for the $30 million is AIG, the world's largest insurance company. AIG has investments throughout the world and is a major investor in sustainable technology and alternative energy.

13. The Boyd Acres Neighborhood Association strongly supports the development direction of Juniper Ridge. As the adjoining neighborhood, they would have the most to gain or lose from its development. See BANA's letter on the City's web site.

14. Juniper Ridge will provide a mix of housing types for all income levels and ages.

15. The money generated from Juniper Ridge will help fund solutions for numerous City and County improvements, including new roads and utility connections.

16. After advertising nationally seeking a master developer, the City Council chose Juniper Ridge Partners unanimously over two other qualified candidates.

17. Other than Juniper Ridge Partners, no local development companies made a proposal to develop Juniper Ridge.

18. Juniper Ridge Partners and their consultants have met with the school districts, park district, ODOT, the Central Oregon Irrigation District, the Chamber of Commerce, Central Oregon Builders Association, neighborhood groups, educators, the public library, affordable housing groups, and the performing arts committee among many other groups to get their input and advice.

19. Juniper Ridge Partners has agreed to work exclusively on Juniper Ridge, so they will not have any conflicts of interests in other projects.

20. The principals of Juniper Ridge Partners have over 50 years' combined experience in residential and commercial real estate, specializing in mixed-use, new urbanist, award winning development. Ray Kuratek has lived full time in Bend area since 2001, and first developed in Oregon in 1983.


WE CAN'T LOSE! Juniper Ridge, THE ANSWER TO ALL OUR PROBLEMS! Can't wipe your ass without a chart? JUNIPER RIDGE IS THE ANSWER! My favorite:

Ray Kuratek has lived full time in Bend area since 2001, and first developed in Oregon in 1983.

Ray Kuratek grew his first PUBIC HAIR RIGHT HERE IN OREGON! Wow. What a relief, I was afraid the Master Developer of the biggest boondoggle in Bend history went thru puberty somewhere else.

WHY is this sort of CRAP on the CITY OF BENDS WEBSITE?

"PR/MARKETING GOT US INTO THIS HOLE, AND PR/MARKETING WILL GET US OUT! KEEP DIGGIN' BOYS!"

Timothy said...

The Old Mill would get a great university. I agree. I remember saying on the original Bubble blog that the place is all wrong for shopping. You don't see the river unless you go behind the shops.

Instead, the main drag is a street right through the heart of the shopping. You see people clutching their kids all the time.

The right way to do it would have been to put the shopping on both sides of the river, add two more walking bridges, and keep the cars behind the shops.

They wasted the great space they had.

Timothy said...

I said "low rates" when I meant "low prices." Sorry, that didn't make any sense. Low bond prices = high bond rates.

My bad.

Anonymous said...

brokerage is about the "safest" biz model in Cent OR RE, right now.

*

Homer, SAFE?

Duncan say's if he goes down more that 50% he's out,

The REHO model is ALREADY down 80%. Every realtor I know is making 1/4 waht they did last year, and working 4X as hard. The house is down, also NOTE that the Bend model is that ALL the REHO's basically have to pay rent for their cubicle/office, all REHO office are basically like hair-salons, the house gets a cut, and note also NO benefits of any KIND, all realtors have to cover their own insurance, everything.

Work from home, if you down 75% of your income, work from home, walking from the office is the only MAJOR expense you can cut, besides these days with VOIP the 'office' doesn't provide a fucking thing!

Look at downtown and everywhere I bet the REHO office space is 25% and 90% of it is BULLSHIT waste.

BIG changes are coming but the biggest is the END of commissions, 1% or lower will be the RULE of the FUTURE.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

My God... I could go down that list point-by-point and just tear it to pieces.

2,000 seat theatre? OK, TOWER THEATRE ringing any bells? We've got a rinky dink theatre ALREADY (right downtown), and it's financially insolvent. They think a 2,000 seat indoor amphitheatre out in the scrub is going to fly?

My God, we are all dead meat.

I heard a radio ad about the City doing a survey of "How We're Doing", and I would hope that anyone who actually gets a call would voice the idea that each & every City Councilor should be fired & booked on fraud charges, and that Duncan McGeary should be appointed BEND EMPEROR FOR LIFE with SUMMARY BEHEADING POWER and other such accouterments of his office.

Anonymous said...

WHY is this sort of CRAP on the CITY OF BENDS WEBSITE?

*

Its PLAINLY obvious to me that this was ALL written by KURTEK, certainly KURATEK is the city webmaster.

He's the master of all else.

Duncan McGeary said...

What I said was that if Bend went down 50%, EVERYONE would go out of business.

Ain't going to happen.

But I also said, it would only take a 20 or 30% drop to kill off a significant number of stores.

And I think that is going to happen.

Even the GREAT FRAKKEN DEPRESSION didn't kill of 50% of the businesses!

Let's try to keep this within the realm of possibility.

Timothy said...

>>BIG changes are coming but the biggest is the END of commissions, 1% or lower will be the RULE of the FUTURE.

Hey, you do that you kill the Bulletin's revenues.

I gotta think you're right, though. It used to coat my grandfather $100 to trade a stock. And spreads were huge compared to now. The big dividend-paying stocks he used to buy have spreads of a penny now.

How can that NOT happen to the Realtors?

When I bought my second house, the seller and I agreed to the amount, then I brought in a Realtor (friend of the wife) on an hourly basis to work through the inspections and legal papers. If I could do that every time, I would. I'm sure not going to be part of a 6% transaction ever again.

Timothy said...

>>Even the GREAT FRAKKEN DEPRESSION didn't kill of 50% of the businesses!

National and local are two different stories. There are such a thing as ghost towns, you know.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Check out this CACB (Cascade Bancorp) chart

Broke to fresh 52 week lows today. JUST ANOTHER 40% DOWN... and she'll be worth a look. Some big fish would probably do well to scoop'er up at book value. Although CACB is about to be revealed as a cloaked SUBPRIME haven. Here's a chart of CACB's future. Note the distinct UNPLEASANTNESS when American Home broke below $20/sh... it was a 1 month ride to UNDER $1. And of course, even selling at $1 would be better than holding thru the subsequent 80% loss that took about 2 seconds in the final collapse...

Anonymous said...

So how does that all work out? Foreigners selling US assets while the Treasury ramps up sales.Sounds like bond rates going down and inflation up to me.

*

The letters went out in October, everyone is getting out, while they still have 'some principal'. A more interesting figure would be redemption in the USA.

With regards to treasury, at this point they're just print bail-out money, and the banks are putting it on their books as a short-term loan. Citi yesterday announced a 50% loss in profit.

The stock market is completely out of sync with earning's. Eventually it will be negative earnings across the board. Right now its just cover shit to get past elections.

The WSJ had a good article series all last week about how fucked the republicans are the worst foreclosures states are the tightest races, so finally DUBYA is paying attention to sub-prime.

Sometime between now and turkey day the DOW has to fall big and hard. That said they love the low interest rates.

The school of thought when I was involved in Salem Politics back in the 90's was that the desire was to drive the USA economy into the sewer in order to get rid of entitlements. The Republicans are doing a damn good job of driving the USA into the sewer, it should be interesting if they can shut down entitlements, after what they have spent on IRAQ, already known to be $2Trillion when you consider long term care for casualty's.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Let's try to keep this within the realm of possibility.

I agree, going TOO FAR puts us in the Bubble Camp... just the other way.

But I honestly don't think there's ever been many situations like Bend is facing today. I think towns hit 2.5-3 STD's above the mean once in awhile.

But I think Bend truly achieved a Once In A Lifetime Mega-Super Bubble Status, and went to 5 STD's above the mean... a TRUE 1,000 year event. Like winning the lottery... 5 TIMES IN A ROW. Just practically impossible.

I still think that despite the slowdown, we are a good 3.5 STD's above the mean. Times are STILL incredibly good. "Going back to normal" isn't even within the realm of most peoples thinking around here... most weren't EVER here during normal, and in fact, most have never experienced ANYTHING close to normal... CA has been on an eternal run.

Going from 5 STD's above "normal" back to Real Normal is something virtually no town in the US has EVER experienced. I think I read somewhere that Cent OR RE aggregate value went from $1.5BB in the mid 90's to $21 BILLION in 12 years. NORMAL is MORE than 50% down... WAY MORE,

Anonymous said...

Broke to fresh 52 week lows today. JUST ANOTHER 40% DOWN... and she'll be worth a look

*

Remember less than a month ago, the promise of CACB was to issue their OWN fucking JUMBO loans, because NOBODY else will.

I'll tell you all a little secret, the play on CACB is all done by MUTUAL FUNDS. The word across the board last spring was BEND IS FUCKED.

Only the most lame mutual is still holding CACB.

With this public announcement that they alone will cover JUMBO for Bend, probably sent the last remaining Mutual Funds to the exit door.

There is NO FUCKING JUMBO coming to BEND.

ALL homes sales will be NO HIGHER than $370k, and all require 20% down, and if you don't have 20% down you MUST pay fucking PMI, and it is going to cost as much for PMI as your MTG.

We're going to see home ownership drop from 70% to below 50%, Americans don't have a down, and too many people can't pay the bills now. Where in the fuck are new buyers going to come from?

Timothy said...

>>the worst foreclosures states are the tightest races

Ohio and Florida feeling big housing pain, and they are huge swing states.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

What I said was that if Bend went down 50%, EVERYONE would go out of business.

Ain't going to happen.


IMPEACH DUNCAN MCGEARY! OFF WITH HIS HEAD!

Timothy said...

>>Where in the fuck are new buyers going to come from?

You hit the big question. We went from 61% to 69% homeownership with slight-of-hand one-off tricks. Those people are losing their houses and they ain't going to buy again.

Someone wants to move to Bend? (Like SoCalBikeGirl, for instance.) Forget it. They have to sell their house to move and no one's buying. She gave up. She said so. They're sticking it out in California.

It's hunker-down time.

Anonymous said...

Ohio and Florida feeling big housing pain, and they are huge swing states.
*

That's the scary shit, you don't know what DUBYA might do to 'fix' the problem?

Who will he bomb? Who must die to protect the Republican Party from complete self destruction? The way things are going this is looking very much like the mid 1930's. These dodo's are setting up a Democrat by default majority for a generation. At least Cheney and everyone got rich, I hope they like to eat cash.

It's really crazy that the WSJ hasn't given a FLYING fuck until now. They have been the primary cheerleaders for DUBYA. They're doing ALL they can to send out smoke signals. With the BRAIN gone from DUBYA's inner circle who is listening??

I think its like Homers model, they all know under a 100% democratic leadership there will be criminal proceedings, time to find a friendly government, like say Pakistan.

Duncan McGeary said...

Well, I don't have to be faster than the bear, I just have to be faster than the other guy.

If 3 out of 4 businesses close, the fourth store is probably going to get a few concessions, at least from those landlords that can give them.

We'll muddle through. Painful, yes.

I do believe this is all going to play out before my next lease is negotiated. So I'll know where I stand.

I can always find some cheap place to hunker down.

When I saw the mall going down the tubes, I asked the other merchants. NONE of them saw it coming. I sold the store, jumped ship, and I'm still here and most of them are gone.

People can be very resilient.

Anonymous said...

Just in, there MUST be some big shit happening today under the radar, to finally get PAULSON off his fucking ass.
*
NEWS ALERT
from The Wall Street Journal


Oct. 16, 2007

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called for an aggressive response to deal with the U.S. housing crisis, which he called "the most significant current risk to our economy." In the Bush administration's most detailed reaction to the housing slump, Paulson said the government and financial industry should provide immediate help for homeowners trying to refinance current mortgages before they reset at much higher rates. He also said policy makers should consider developing a uniform national licensing and monitoring system for mortgage brokers.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Ah ha!

Cascade Bancorp Q3 profit falls, shares hit year-low

Oct 16 (Reuters) - Cascade Bancorp (CACB.O: Quote, Profile , Research) posted a lower quarterly profit on easing net interest margin and an increase in non-performing assets, sending the shares down to a year low.

Shares of the community bank have fallen more than 30 percent since the start of the year before Tuesday's losses.

The company reported earnings of 35 cents a share for the third quarter, in line with analysts' estimate, but lower than earnings of 37 cents a share for the year-ago period.

The holding company of Bank of Cascades operating in Oregon and Idaho markets said its quarterly net interest margin was down to 5.24 percent from 5.71 percent a year ago.

Cascade expects the margin to further ease between 5 and 10 basis points in the coming quarter as a result of the interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Sept. 18.

Lower yields on earning assets were also due to interest adjustments with respect to non-performing assets (NPA), which were higher at $21 million as of Sept. 30, compared with $9.4 million for the prior quarter.

The increase in NPA was mainly residential construction credits in the Boise, Idaho market which experienced some slowing in new home sales, the company said.

Cascade's shares were trading down more than 3 percent at $20.87 in afternoon trade on the Nasdaq. They hit a new year-low of $20.42 earlier in the day.

Duncan McGeary said...

Don't we here in Springfield just love being right?

O.K. Bart,(Cassandra), time to throw you off the wall.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

non-performing assets (NPA), which were higher at $21 million as of Sept. 30, compared with $9.4 million for the prior quarter...

net interest margin was down to 5.24 percent from 5.71 percent a year ago...


Good news though... NPA assets are increasing at 2,390% annual rate... which I think it a big improvement over the 3,000%+ rate of earlier this year. And even though net interest margin dropped 47 basis points YoY (12 pts/quarter), they think it'll slow to 5.

Yup, the Kool-Aid vat at CACB still seems well-stocked. We should see Patty Moss assuring us ALL IS WELL in the Bulletin soon. Although the Bulletins recent switch to HEAD-IN-SAND mode of dealing with Bad News made preclude this...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Don't we here in Springfield just love being right?

I have to believe that inside every broken clock, there is a little celebration twice a day....

Anonymous said...

>>Even the GREAT FRAKKEN DEPRESSION didn't kill of 50% of the businesses!

National and local are two different stories. There are such a thing as ghost towns, you know.

*


I agree, I don't know if thats true. During the Great Depression average un-employment was 25%, that said like now in place like Flint, MI un-employment can be HUGE, and thus lead to $15k homes.

I don't recall the business loss during the Great Depression, but I know my family lost about 90% and they had HUGE wealth. Thus when you suggest that there was NOT a 50% loss of business all I can say is that it was a different time, more like what I talk about.

In that day if you went down 90% you stuck around there were no options, you kept your biz going.

Today if you biz goes down 50% most are out.

I hope that explains the difference even small biz in that day, people worked and lived at the biz. It was completely different than now. Then there were MORE small biz, and farmers. That had no where to go.

There are actually much more less small biz now, and of course Most like construction is off the radar.

I'm NOT sure what it means now to lose 50% of business, but WHAT I'M TELLING ALL, INCLUDING YOU DUNCAN, is that you better get used to the idea of seeing -50% on GROSS RECEIPTS Because spending will plummet, unless your pumping gas.

Timothy said...

>>brooks is closing their awbrey butte office and moving it to their downtown corp building. I was talking with an agent this morning from their office. They will still have their North rim office and Mt. Bachelor village and all other outlets in CO.

This was just posted at bend economy board.

So it's consolidation. The chess pieces, they move.

Timothy said...

So it's hunker down mode.

I'm going to go guy some canned vegetables and beans. With the weather turning, i think i can get in the mood for this.

Anonymous said...

Even the GREAT FRAKKEN DEPRESSION didn't kill of 50% of the businesses! - dunc

*

Duncan, I love you, but lets be honest with ourselves here. We're going into a depression PURE&SIMPLE not seen since the 1930's, and there is NUTTIN that Bend PR&MARKETING can do to stop it.

You have essential and non-essential, and discretionary and non-discretionarys shops in Bend.

Folks will be buying only the food and fuel they need, and they'll NOT be buying any non-essentials.

Given that 99% of downtown bend falls into the FUCKING non-essential camp, my bet is that most gross-receipts fall by more than 80% during the next two years, I think you'll start seeing it get ugly after xmas/new-year, bend may have some tourist bookings, after that its nada.

Like I have said all along, sure like the great depression, if your shop owner, and you can work/live at the biz, hell you can go down 90% and survive, which is how your 50% survived the great depression, but now with all these insane leases and FROO-FROO shops like Bend has,....

I'm sure you'll be able to sell comic books, and maybe sci-fi videos or something during this coming collapse, but you'll see sales level receipts lower than anything you have ever seen before.

This is going to be much worse than the 83' oregon-timber recession.

I don't know how many rich comic book consumers there are in Bend, but you have told us many times your customers are mostly blue-collar.

I have a lot of 'rich' friends, and they're hurting because the 10% on principal they planned on when they retired in Bend didn't come, and the mcMansion they bought is burning the shit out of their principal, now they cannot sell their mcMansion for 1/2 what they paid, I'm talking folks that paid cash here, with the idea that they could retire in Bend, and live off the difference on interest that was the dream not long ago. Probably too many people had that dream.

I think the truly rich of Bend even like Mike Hollern are going to start watching their nickels.

It's a good thing you didn't open that second shop.

Anonymous said...

So it's consolidation. The chess pieces, they move.

*

I think its very important that at least once a day we sync our hypothesis with the facts.

That said there will be much more consolidation to come, because the underlaying foundation of Bend truly is that of sand ( actually pummy powder ).

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

With Brooks shutting down their HQ on Awbrey, who will keep an eye out for the Horrible Clothesline Offenders?

WHO!

Timothy said...

>>I think its very important that at least once a day we sync our hypothesis with the facts.

Meh. This blog is a 24-hour news organization. The first report is always wrong, but it didn't take long to get corrected. If no one said anything, the truth wouldn't come out. Maybe Paul's really nancy Grace.

Without the rumor to correct, would a Realtor have voluntarily said ANYTHING about the situation? Of course not.

Timothy said...

Besides, this blog is just fo entertainment. We all know that when we want the truth we go to the Bend bulletin.

Anonymous said...

Don't we here in Springfield just love being right?

*

I would love to have folks tell me I'm wrong. I'm an asshole business man, I watch Bend with intrigue. I hate to see what the get rich quick fuck-heads have done.

I would love to be wrong. I'm here to bounce off ideas, and have you folks tell me I'm full of shit, and that I'm just seeing mirages.

I'm a survivor, in my years 99% of everybody I know has been driven out of business over time.

I truly care about saving what is left of Bend, and not having it turn into what all the calis are running away from.

The purpose of the blog is to debate the bubble, and I think we're doing it. I would love to be told that the people who run this town were not running it into bankruptcy.

This town needs HL Mencken types, this town is in desperate need of people with a nose that can smell shit. The city leaders are obsessed with dog shit, but I say that first order is fix the human excrement problem.

If this stuff ain't true, then say so, and if you can't handle the truth, then find a comfy place to think good thoughts.

Survival requires seeing things, observing, and making intelligent decisions.

This is the purpose of the debate. To survive.

This is going to be a Great Depression, and Bend needs HL Mencken types, a good laugh makes it all bearable.

Anonymous said...

Besides, this blog is just fo entertainment. We all know that when we want the truth we go to the Bend bulletin.

*

The BULL is an OBITUARY, after the innocent party is dead, and the guilty party has cashed the check.

Then and ONLY then does the BULL report the story.

The day after the public testimony has ended, then and only then does the BULL announce an open meeting.

The BULL is 50% obituary, and 50% advertising, and these days most of that advertising is RE.

We would love the BULL to be a real paper.

The BULL is confirmation, if and when the BULL reports a issue, you know the issue is closed. The people that don't name and the organizations they fail to mention are always the party that cashed the checks.

dartagnan said...

I'm here to bounce off ideas, and have you folks tell me I'm full of shit

Okay, you're full of shit.

Thank me later.

Duncan McGeary said...

O.K. O.K.! You're right! I foresee a 60% drop!

So there! Ha!

What's kind of eerie about this 50% discussion, is that I prepared for a 50% drop in sport card sales.

My wife kept saying, what makes you think it won't go to zero?

She was right.

I ended up closing 3 out of 4 stores. (Thankfully, I'm much happier with my BMWJAMAGEH existence.)

Besides, a 30% drop will be a bullet to the head of most businesses, so the idea that cancer (50%) would get them eventually won't matter much.

dartagnan said...

One or more Bend City Councilors will be perp-walked out of City Hall in the next 3 years.

You've gone around the Bend, Bubble Boy.

Anonymous said...

With Brooks shutting down their HQ on Awbrey, who will keep an eye out for the Horrible Clothesline Offenders?

WHO!

*

This is got to be the laugh of the INTL financial press. Here you have the richest guy in Eastern Oregon, and his house is imploding, and he's writing dear jane letters to a nurse who hangs out her g-string in pubic view.

Talking about priority's. Textbook example of delegation.

Mark Twain said that truth is stranger than fiction. He must of been thinking about Bend, but then again in Roughing-It, he visited a lot of desert towns during the gold rush just like Bend.

Anonymous said...

dartagnan said...

I'm here to bounce off ideas, and have you folks tell me I'm full of shit

Okay, you're full of shit.

***

This is why your Barney, the best customer at the Springfield bar, and always the one with the most depth and insight.

Timothy said...

Homebuilder confidence slips to lowest level EVER (data since 1985).

Note that we never get a "Realtor Confidence" reading. We just get NAR revisions and statements that the turn around has just begun. Month after month after month.

U.S. Homebuilder Confidence Index Fell to Record Low (Update2)

By Joe Richter

Oct. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. homebuilders fell to a record low in October as declining prices, higher mortgage rates and loan restrictions scared off buyers.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of builder sentiment fell to 18, more than economists had forecast, from 20 in September, the Washington-based association said today. Levels lower than 50 mean most respondents view conditions as poor. The index averaged 42 last year.

Bigger discounts and sweetened incentives have yet to revive demand as buyers wait for even bigger bargains, builders said. The report underscores Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's warning yesterday that the housing slump will constrain economic growth into next year.

``The contraction in housing is going to be deeper and more prolonged than many people thought,'' said Kevin Logan, senior market economist at Dresdner Kleinwort in New York, who correctly forecast the decline. ``It doesn't look like home sales are reacting to discounted prices. A lot of buyers will wait until the market hits bottom.''

The confidence index was forecast to drop to 19 this month, according to the median estimate of 38 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Projections ranged from 17 to 21.

Stock prices initially extended losses after the report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 60 points, or 0.4 percent, at 1:38 p.m. in New York. The Standard & Poor's Supercomposite Homebuilding Index dropped 8.5 points to 341.0.


...

Anonymous said...

Without the rumor to correct, would a Realtor have voluntarily said ANYTHING about the situation? Of course not.

*

I agree, this is why I have been relentless on the Kuratek thing. We have the synergy here, and there are people who know. We just keep asking the questions, and the puzzle will come together.

I think this is a great substitute for news, its sort like 'open-source' news. We can read the BULL call them on their BULL and can get instant feedback. If we're completely off target, you know that we're going to get corrected.

Most people don't to know whats going on, they just want their money, and fuck the rest of the world.

I think in order to survive in a small town like Bend, you need to know whats going on, and why?

I remember when I was a kid, I took Journalism they taught us the first paragraph of any story should say "who,what,where,when, and WHY", for me WHY is most important. You never hear WHY in the BULL. This is WHY this blog is successful.

Quite in often in the BULL you don't even hear WHO, 90% of all storys about Juniper Ridge never mention Kuratek.

Someday soon when the BULL implodes, and their only revenue is print-sales, perhaps they'll start being journalists, until then I think this blog will continue.

Anonymous said...

``It doesn't look like home sales are reacting to discounted prices.

A lot of buyers will wait until the market hits bottom.''

*

The first statement is very true.

The second statement is pure baloney. There are very few new buyers, everyone that could buy did buy, and most dismally intelligent people now know that 'investing' in homes is BULLSHIT.

Real Estate Paralysis; sellers can't sell, buyers can't buy, any new buyer, first needs to sell, ergo there will be no new buyers.

Once the foreclosures begin, these people can't simply move and buy, as the only MTG will be FHA, the USA wall street MTG biz is shut-down. FHA is going to require good credit, 20% down, and PMI if you don't have 20% down. The return of'traditional' criteria knocks most Americans out of home-buying.

The builders lobby is basically begging the government to do something, just like the great depression. At this point anything the government does, is only putting gasoline on a fire.

Most likely this Builders Report is that cross that was driven through Brooks Resources heart, this report probably had a lot of REIT's make conference calls to Brooks and say "What in the hell are you doing to protect our principal?".

No point of watching your principal fall to zero, everybody is calling for redemptions.

Timothy said...

Today the big story is worry about regional banks. We know that the huge commercial and investment banks have but aside huge reserves to cover their junk.

The worry is that the regional banks haven't set aside enough. Maybe they can't.

Anonymous said...

Today the big story is worry about regional banks. We know that the huge commercial and investment banks have but aside huge reserves to cover their junk.

*

Outcome big get bigger, small go away, ... nothing new.

Certainly regional should be on a case by case, and certainly CACB made a lot of money on the PR bonanza, and now they should collapse. Regional banks that didn't play lotto with deposits should be fine.

Too big to fail, is alive and well in banking.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Outcome big get bigger, small go away, ... nothing new.

No shit.
The poor go to China Hat Rd.
The Middle Class go to The Bethlehem Inn
The Rich move into 1,000sf 1979 Adair Homes
The Super, SUPER rich scoop up the shit that's left & Thank God it's Pottersville.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

If no one said anything, the truth wouldn't come out. Maybe Paul's really nancy Grace.

Paul-doh actually forced to Google "Nancy Grace" to figure out what he is. Paul-doh deserve a raise.

Without the rumor to correct, would a Realtor have voluntarily said ANYTHING about the situation? Of course not.

Damn right. THIS is what makes a BEM-inspired "Obituary of Failure" virtually impossible in this town. Look at Cascade Business News: They've covered 1,000's of Grand Openings. How many Grand Closings? Zilch. According to Bend media coverage there has been nary a business failure in this town in 20 years.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

BIG NEWS from Bank of the Cascades!

Dear Bank Of The Cascades customer,

We are sorry to inform you that your online payments and transfers services are expired,
and must be renewed immediately, if you intend to use these services in the future,
and prevent any similarly situations you must take action at once!

Click here and begin the renewal of your Payments & Transfers Services.

Thank you for your prompt attention to this matter!
Copyright © 2007 Bank Of The Cascades


I HIGHLY RECOMMEND that everyone follow the provided link to the MOZAMBIQUE registered domain if you receive this email & RENEW YOUR ONLINE PAYMENTS! Even if you're not a BOTC customer, like me.

YOU'LL BE SORRY!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

HURRY! Prevent "similarly situations"! Legitimate banks use a minimum of 2 exclamation points per email! This thing is 100% DEAD REAL!

OH NO! SIMILARLY SITUATIONS are headed our way! We're fucked!

Timothy said...

Sorry about that Paul. That looks like one of my scripts.

echo "Dear " . $banklist[$i] . "customer,";

Timothy said...

Just checked my spam folder. About 25 things have gone wrong with my Paypal account today. Several emails I have to respond to from eBay. Various banks I've never had accounts with very urgently want to get in touch with me. Lots of women want to be pleasured by men sporting enhancement products.

And not a single spam about the housing crash. Weird.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

echo "Dear " . $banklist[$i] . "customer,";

Oh My Lord. We need to get you on the Ruby bandwagon.

Even a little PHP snippet makes me wistfully reminisce about my youth... 9 hours debugging in a blind rage... gigantic monolithic scripts whose only error was a newline at the end.... drinking to escape reality...

Ooop... that's wistfully reminiscing about the present.

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure you want to be responsible for Mrs Breeze, do you??

Nancy Grace Sued For Wrongful Death -

November 21, 2006
NOVEMBER 21--The parents of a woman who committed suicide shortly after a grilling by Nancy Grace today filed a lawsuit against the TV host, claiming that ...

Anonymous said...

Its all boises fault, nada about Bend.

CACB Q-REP


Cascade Bancorp (Oregon) (Nasdaq: CACB) Announces Solid Third Quarter Financial Results: Earnings Per Share $0.35 Compared to $0.37 a Year Ago and $0.36 for the Linked Quarter;

- Earnings Per Share (Diluted): at $0.35 compared to $0.37 a year ago and $0.36 for the immediately preceding (linked) quarter

- Net Income: $10.0 million compared to $10.5 million a year ago and $10.2 million for the linked-quarter

- Loan Growth: up 9.0% year-over-year and 4.2% on linked-quarter basis

- Customer Relationship Deposits: up 9.2% year over year and 4.5% on a linked-quarter basis

- Net Interest Margin: eased to 5.24% from 5.34% linked quarter

- Credit Quality Metrics: Non performing assets and net-charge offs trend higher

Anonymous said...

Bay Meadows Land Company is committed to high-quality residential and commercial development with superior design, centered on integrating and enriching neighboring communities.



Jeff Holzman

* Assists with development management activities, focused on Bay Meadows
* Joined Wilson/Equity Office (now Wilson Meany Sullivan) in 1999
* Previous experience includes investment banking for growth and middle market companies, and real estate investment banking for commercial mortgage-backed securities pools
* B.A. in History from Stanford University and an M.B.A. in Real Estate from the University of California at Berkeley

Ray Kuratek

* Development Specialist for Bay Meadows Land Company
* Joined PaineWebber Real Estate Group in 1997
* Assists with asset management and development
* Focused on project entitlement and political strategy
* Over 30 years experience in commercial and residential development
* B.S. in Finance and M.B.A. in Finance from University of Connecticut

Anonymous said...

BINGO A FUCKING LEAD - Remember the clowns that Brooks brought into Bend 2001 that were called "smart growth" a bunch of paid consultants who go around and get dumb projects built, this is how Hollern got Juniper Ridge done. Note that Kuratek and buddy Holzman go way back on the 'smart growth' program.

The bend-living article implies that Brooks doesnt' like Kuratek, but My guess is that Kuratek has been influential with the WHOLE FUCKING "SMART GROWTH" Program, which has been going on for years to get all Brooks shit built in Bend.

***
Raymond Kuratek, Bay Meadows Land Company

Ray has been involved in commercial and residential development for the past 30 years. Beginning in 1994 he has been responsible for the mixed-use development activity at Bay Meadows. Ray is a strong advocate of "Smart Growth" and transit oriented development (TOD's). Prior to his career in real estate Ray was an officer in the United States Air Force and served in Vietnam.

Anonymous said...

BOY ol ray is also a BAT boy big on them buses, ... Note that Hollern has big plans for development all around Juniper Ridge.

The more I find on the Kuratek, the more it appears that EVERYTHING that goes on today is what Kuratek loved ten years ago, no matter city-hall thinks he's Rasputin, Kurateks is Bend's Brain.

*

Raymond Kuratek, Bay Meadows Land Company

Ray has been involved in commercial and residential development for the past 30 years. Beginning in 1994 he has been responsible for the mixed-use development activity at Bay Meadows. Ray is a strong advocate of "Smart Growth" and transit oriented development (TOD's). Prior to his career in real estate Ray was an officer in the United States Air Force and served in Vietnam.

Anonymous said...


"http://bendbubble.blogspot.com/2007/08/super-rich-screw-baby-rich-bend-oregon.html">How Hollern pulled Smart Growth Out of Arse



BendBubble: Boss Hogg Hollern and The Bend Golf Wars
HOLLERN PAYS "SMART GROWTH" EXPERTS WITH HIS OWN NICKEL TO DESTROY BEND ... DVA the PR firm that runs BEND for the bank UBS ( kuratek - juniper ridge ) has ...
bendbubble.blogspot.com/2007/08/super-rich-screw-baby-rich-bend-oregon.html - 87k -

Anonymous said...

I think its coming together, in 2001 is when Brooks brought "smart growth" to Bend, the same time he brought in Kuratek.

It would be interesting to trace back if Kuratek got the home from Brooks for 'smart growth' services.

Note that if you google "smart growth" and "high desert museum" you can see all the pony shows that Hollern put on to sell "smart growth' to Bend. He kept Kuratek out of the lime-light!

This explains why the city has given Kuratek the gold treatment.

The Bruckner story in bend-living implies that Brooks got fucked on the JR RFQ, but that is a most likely a cover, they probably wanted to give Kuratek a bone for getting the 'smart growth' package incorporated in Bend.

Anonymous said...

Hollern is the godfather of Bend smart-growth, but Kuratek is the Ambassador.

*** Homer read the following very closely.

HOLLERN PAYS "SMART GROWTH" EXPERTS WITH HIS OWN NICKEL TO DESTROY BEND

The developers of NorthWest Crossing, Brooks Resources Corporation and Tennant Family LP, set out under the banner of a new company, West Bend Property Company, to accommodate some of the city’s surging growth in a carefully planned fashion by producing a seamless new neighborhood addition 1.5 miles from downtown Bend.

Bend’s explosive growth was not without its share of detractors. Many residents, alarmed at the rapid pace of the city’s expansion and increasing traffic congestion, pushed city planners and politicians to consider a moratorium on growth. Sensing that such a moratorium would challenge plans for their property, West Bend Property Company partners Mike Hollern, Kirk Schueler, and Mike Tennant became moderate brokers of a rigorous public conversation and active proponents of good civic design, sponsoring charrettes for challenging public projects (such as a new bridge crossing the Deschutes River), hosting Building a Better Bend lectures featuring national smart growth personalities, assisting with the expansion of the High Desert Museum, and locating their offices close to the city’s historic downtown in a renovated convent.

( Smart GROWTH saves the day, bought and paid for by Brooks Resource. To this day in Bend, there is NO anti-growth, nor pro-growth, only smart-growth, aka Brooks Resource Growth. The Godfather of Bend )

Anonymous said...

www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv24n3/otoole.pdf

The above is some GOOD SHIT.

***

Oregon’s experience suggests “anti-sprawl” strategies
worsen the problems they are intended to solve.
The Folly of
“Smart Growth”
By Randal O’Toole
Thoreau Institute
hroughouttheunitedstates,
city and state governments are turn-
ing to “smart growth” urban planning
strategies to slow suburban “sprawl.”
Spurred by concerns over traffic con-
gestion, air pollution, and loss ofopen
space, the plans are intended to improve urban livability.

Anonymous said...

http://www.terrain.org/unsprawl/18/

** MORE GOOD SHIT

Growth and Controversy

Bend’s explosive growth was not without its share of detractors. Many residents, alarmed at the rapid pace of the city’s expansion and increasing traffic congestion, pushed city planners and politicians to consider a moratorium on growth. Sensing that such a moratorium would challenge plans for their property, West Bend Property Company partners Mike Hollern, Kirk Schueler, and Mike Tennant became moderate brokers of a rigorous public conversation and active proponents of good civic design, sponsoring charrettes for challenging public projects (such as a new bridge crossing the Deschutes River), hosting Building a Better Bend lectures featuring national smart growth personalities, assisting with the expansion of the High Desert Museum, and locating their offices close to the city’s historic downtown in a renovated convent.

Anonymous said...

http://www.bendreic.com/speakers.htm

***
I really think that KURATEK is the heir of the Brooks Resources
***

What is Smart Growth for Central Oregon?

ROBERT “SKIP” ROTTICCI, Chairman, ULI Oregon SW Washington;
Senior Vice President, Costa Pacific Communities

Robert (Skip) Rotticci is responsible for establishing the Urban Land Institute (ULI) Oregon/SW Washington District Council. He joined Costa Pacific Communities in July 2002. Since then his primary responsibilities have included new business opportunities, acquisitions and dispositions, project management, and market research. Skip brings a wide and varied range of experience in business. Prior to joining Costa Pacific Communities he was president and chief executive officer of International Wood Industries, a company specializing in the marketing, sales, and manufacturing of industrial and agricultural wood products. As president, Skip was responsible for an increase in annual revenues from $18M to $42M, starting three new manufacturing facilities, instituting strategic policies to secure long term revenue streams from major clients, and extremely high levels of market share in each of the company's business lines. Additionally, Skip has been directly involved with development of, and investment in, various industrial and office properties throughout the western U.S.

Anonymous said...

http://www.bendreic.com/speakers.htm

*

The above is an investor solicitation to get rich in "smart growth" of Bend, this is where all the money from 2006 was found to continue what we see imploding today.

Just June 06, at this conference in INN@7th Hollern is promising infinite returns to any investor who will listen. All in the name of "SMART GROWTH".

Anonymous said...

www.ci.bend.or.us/depts/urban_renewal_economic_development/docs/JR_Handout_07_19_06sm.pd

Where in the hell are these projects that Kuratek built in Bend in 1983??

**

Last 10 years: Bay Meadows
(San Mateo, CA)
– New urbanist, mixed use
– Phase I: award-winning
– Phase II: Sierra Club
endorsed
• Ray Kuratek: 35 yrs real
estate experience;
– Chairman & Owner of 300-
person firm
– Developing projects in
Oregon since 1983
– Central Oregon resident for 6
years
• Jeff Holzman: 10 yrs, last 4
on Bay Meadows

Anonymous said...

http://www.bendbulletin.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060907/NEWS0107/609070337&SearchID=73256250881369

Stockbridge, is Kuratek, yet BULL treats it like a third party.

*

Pacific Coast is a commercial debt lender that has offices in Portland, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Sacramento, Calif. According to the letter it sent to the city, the company provides real estate owners, developers and investors with a broad range of funding options.

The company has invested more than $3.6 billion in properties throughout the Western United States. The company has about a $1 billion in funds that are dedicated to "smart growth development opportunities," the letter states. On Aug. 30, Kuratek, who leads Juniper Ridge Partner, the master development team, said that Stockbridge Capital was no longer willing to put $30 million into the project. However, at that time Kuratek said they were also talking to other investors. Kuratek said the company, which invests money from pension funds into real estate projects, was no longer comfortable partnering with the city.

Stockbridge Capital backed out of the deal because of the low rate of return the city offered on the money the investors were willing to put into the project, Kuratek said. He also pointed to the amount of time it has taken the city to negotiate the deal and the recent criticism the project has received as reasons for the investors walking away from the project.

According to a staff report written for councilors, Mayor Bill Friedman and councilors Jim Clinton and John Hummel met with Juniper Ridge Partners and principals from Pacific Crest Capital Partners on Friday.

Anonymous said...

http://www.bendbulletin.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060907/NEWS0107/609070337&SearchID=73256250881369

* Three binders full of doc's on KURATEK, in BACKGROUND CHECK, that SHOULD BE PUBLIC DOC *

Stockbridge [ kuratek ] Capital backed out of the deal because of the low rate of return the city offered on the money the investors were willing to put into the project, Kuratek said. He also pointed to the amount of time it has taken the city to negotiate the deal and the recent criticism the project has received as reasons for the investors walking away from the project.

According to a staff report written for councilors, Mayor Bill Friedman and councilors Jim Clinton and John Hummel met with Juniper Ridge Partners and principals from Pacific Crest Capital Partners on Friday.

"In the opinion of the staff and the councilors, the experience and financial capabilities of Pacific Coast appear well suited to Juniper Ridge," the staff report reads.

Councilors also are still waiting for a background check to be completed on Kuratek and his partner, Jeff Holzman. Jill Bruce, a Portland-based attorney the city has hired to work on Juniper Ridge, said on Tuesday the check would take more time than originally expected. The City Council was told at its last meeting it would take around a week to get the information.

Bruce's law firm has gone to about five different states and a number of different entities gathering three binders full of documents.

"When you are looking at a developer with his experience and age, he is out there doing stuff a long time. There is a ton of material," Bruce said.

According to the staff report, the first phase of the investigation is finished and "no major issues have been discovered," the report reads.

Anonymous said...

Note below in 2006 kuratek is running Bond-Measures down in cali. Note that Bay-Meadows show's everywhere. Note that UBS is the money. I wonder if UBS has invested in Brooks Resources??

It would be great if count elections here in Bend, had online campaign info on how much Jim Clinton has got from UBS?

**

MEASURE M (2006) CONTRIBUTORS

UBS(Union Bank of Switzerland) Securities, LLC (UBS-Warburg/Paine-Webber owned Bay Meadows properties) $25,000


Paine Webber (Bay Meadows owner; Ray Kuratek, Terry Fancher headed fund) $13,000

Approximately 50% of total Measure D $$ came from above 5 sources.

* Source: California Form 460 on file with SM County Elections office.

Duncan McGeary said...

Just a little context. I don't remember there being much if any anti-growth or even slow growth sentiment through the 80's and most of the 90's.

Even today, no candidate could get elected; no money, no media coverage.

Anonymous said...

http://www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/docs/10_19_05_City_Council.pdf.

Here in October 2005, Raymond Kuratek appointed for a one year term on the Community Development Block Grant Advisory Committee.

Note that there had yet to be a decision on Juniper Ridge, and Ray is already an insider in city hall. Conflict of interest, voting that one of their own committe members gets all the profit from public land???

JR choices were narrowed to Speck and Juniper Ridge LLC. ( who the hell is JR LLC?? )

*
Bend City Council
Wednesday, October 19, 2005
1.
Roll Call
The regular meeting of the Bend City Council was called to order at 7:11 P.M. in the City
Council Chambers at Bend City Hall. Present upon roll call by City Recorder Patty Stell were
Bend City Councilors Bruce Abernethy, Chris Telfer, Jim Clinton, Linda Johnson, John Hummel
and Mayor Bill Friedman. Councilor Dave Malkin was absent.
2. Pledge of Allegiance
The Pledge of Allegiance was recited.
4.
Good of the Order
This item was addressed out of order.
a. Consider appointment of Candace Wheeler, Kim Manie-Oskoii, and Charles
Tucker for three year terms, and Raymond Kuratek for a one year term on
the Community Development Block Grant Advisory Committee
Mayor Friedman appointed Candace Wheeler, Kim Manie-Oskoii, and Charles Tucker for three
year terms, and Raymond Kuratek for a one year term on the Community Development Block
Grant Advisory Committee. Councilor Hummel moved approval of the appointments.
Councilor Johnson seconded the motion which passed unanimously, 6/0.

Anonymous said...

Kuratek, Ray, Consultant, Stockbridge Capital Partners LLC, email correspondence, October 16, 2003.
Scalzo, Tom, Operations Manager, Bay Meadows Operating Company, multiple personal communications with
Jeff Holzman, Wilson Meany Sullivan, 2003.
*
In 2006 Stockbridge was going finance JR, says Kuratek, he didn't bother to tell anyone that he was Stockbridge.

In 2005 he sits on committee position in city-hall gets privy to Juniper Ridge proposals, decides he can become master developer.

Anonymous said...

www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/docs/IS_Master_Developer_Recommendation___10_19_05.pdf

October 19, 2005 Hummell annoints Kuratek, note that another 'partner' of kuratek is the designed of the old-mill!

*

Juniper Ridge LLC: Bay Meadows experience for Kuratek listed in #2 above. Kuratek
also has previous experience owning a 300 employee development company (including
sales, development and construction of housing, industrial and office uses), and
additional national real estate experience prior to owning that company. Consultants
include Cooper Robertson (architect and urban planners of Celebration at Disney
World, campus planning at Harvard, Cal Berkeley, Yale, Stanford, Ohio State and
others). Team also includes Arup, an international engineering firm with a sustainability
orientation (listing 36 Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design - LEED -
buildings) and campus planning experience (MIT, Cal Merced, Cal Santa Barbara,
University of Michigan and others). The team also includes Ken Kay Assoc., who is the
designer of the Old Mill District,

Anonymous said...

http://www.bendbulletin.com/archive/2005/08/13/bend_shuts_out_public_from_juniper_talks.html

Bend shuts out public from Juniper talks
Interviews held with developers

By Bulletin staff report / The Bulletin
August 13, 2005

The Bend City Council refused Friday to let the public attend meetings it is holding with developers to determine who might be selected for the proposed high-tech and education campus at Juniper Ridge in northeast Bend.

Three developers, Juniper Ridge LLC, a consortium of California and Oregon....

Anonymous said...

http://www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/docs/10_19_05_City_Council.pdf

The same day that Hummel announced that "Juniper Ridge LLC", was in the running for developing JR, and Tramell Crow was out, he also announced that Ray Kuratek had been assigned to run Bend CDBG program. ( see below )

October 19, two months earlier public participation in JR talks had been banned.

Kuratek is now running CDBG and JR, even though NO mention in minutes that JR-LLC is KURATEK.

***

Community Development Funding Resources

The Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) Program, supported by an annual entitlement grant from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) assists the County to:photo of groundbreaking for CDBG-funded project

* Provide decent and affordable housing
* Provide clean and safe neighborhoods
* Create economic opportunities.

On the local level, Arlington decides what its housing and community development needs are and, within limits prescribed by HUD, which activities will be undertaken to meet those needs. These funds are used to provide housing and economic opportunities for low and moderate income persons.

The Community Services Block Grant (CSBG) Program is also an entitlement grant, awarded to Community Action Agencies (CAAs) and other programs that seek to address poverty at the community level. The money is passed through the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and managed by the Virginia Department of Social Services. Arlington County can use the funds for employment, education, income management, housing, nutrition, emergency services, and health, depending on its determined needs.

Arlington's Affordable Housing Investment Fund (AHIF), in addition to its "bricks and mortar" program, provides funding for services for residents of affordable housing apartment complexes. $100,000 is allocated for AHIF Housing Services each year. Proposals must address unmet and/or changing housing needs. The proposals can request up to 2 years funding, with funding declining by ½ the second year. This is part of the competitive Community Development Fund.

Anonymous said...

http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-361es.html

*

Is 'smart growth' really smart?? Didn't smart growth in Bend make the sprawl worse????

Every project approved in the last five years was 'stamped' 'smart-growth', and now we have a glut of housing, and no empty land.
*


Smart Growth at the Federal Trough
EPA's Financing of the Anti-Sprawl Movement

by Peter Samuel and Randal O’Toole

Peter Samuel is the editor of Toll Roads Newsletter and has worked on EPA policies with the George C. Marshall Institute. Randal O'Toole is the executive director of the Thoreau Institute and an adjunct scholar at the Cato Institute.

Executive Summary

In January 1999, Vice President Al Gore declared war on sprawl. Like many wars, this one has in fact been going on undeclared for some time, with the government covertly supplying funds and technical support to supposed grassroots organizations.

Leading the charge in the war on sprawl is the Environmental Protection Agency. EPA's legal authority over urban land-use planning is tenuous at best. Yet under two grant-making programs—the Transportation Partners program and the Smart Growth Network—the agency has laid the groundwork for a major power grab by giving millions of dollars to nonprofit lobbying groups to build public support for the war on sprawl. With the support of these organizations, Vice President Gore and EPA hope to use federal funding and regulatory authority to dramatically change the lifestyles of most Americans.

The federal government should not subsidize one side of a public policy debate; doing so undermines the very essence of democracy. Nor should government agencies fund nonprofit organizations that exist primarily to lobby other government agencies. Congress should shut down the federal government's anti-sprawl lobbying activities and resist the temptation to engage in centralized social engineering.

Anonymous said...

http://www.cato.org/pubs/regulation/regv24n3/otoole.pdf

A lot of money for developers, tax breaks, everything they promise to solve is actually worse.

***

Throughout the united states,
city and state governments are turn-
ing to “smart growth” urban planning
strategies to slow suburban “sprawl.”
Spurred by concerns over traffic con-
gestion, air pollution, and loss ofopen
space, the plans are intended to improve urban livability.
The strategies include purposeful efforts to increase urban
population densities, boost mass transit ridership, and
decrease auto driving.
In order to achieve those goals, “smart growth” gov-
ernments nationwide are implementing a degree ofland-use
regulation that is unprecedented in the United States prior
to 1990. Unfortunately, as we will see from the experiences
of the Portland, Ore., area, such regulation can produce an
even worse quality of life for residents. The policies’ real
effects appear to be increases in traffic congestion, air pol-
lution, consumer costs, taxes, and just about every other
impediment to urban livability.

Anonymous said...

Bay Area Citizens call Kuratek biggest asshole on westcoast.

***

Save Bay Meadows "Day at the Races"
The Save Bay Meadows group had our own “Day at the Races” Sunday, January 29th. We had a race in our name and six of us were invited to the Winner’s Circle to have our picture taken with the winning horse and jockey...
>> Read More

Stockbridge Capital Hires Singer Associates
Stockbridge Capital (Bay Meadows Land Company) has hired Singer Associates from San Francisco to stop people from signing the referendum petitions. Singer Associates’ clients include Bohannon Development (Hillsdale Shopping Center) and Bay Meadows...
>> Read More

FOLLOW THE $$$
Stockbridge Capital, aka Bay Meadows Land Company, has made sizable contributions to politicians and to the Democratic and Republican parties, allowing those parties to dole out funds to candidates as needed...
>> Read More

SM City Council Votes 5-0 to Demolish Bay Meadows
The San Mateo City Council voted 5-0 to destroy San Mateo’s landmark tourist attraction, the historic 71-year-old Bay Meadows racetrack, and replace it with an enormous, high-density office complex of over one-million square feet plus 150,000 square feet of retail space, and 1250 condos.
>> Read More


Stockbridge Capital Hires Signer Associates
November 22, 2005 - Stockbridge Capital (Bay Meadows Land Company) has hired Singer Associates from San Francisco to stop people from signing the referendum petitions. Singer Associates’ clients include Bohannon Development (Hillsdale Shopping Center) and Bay Meadows. It is surprising that the Loma Prieta Chapter of the Sierra Club and our local League of Women Voters support the activities of this group.

Singer Associates has also mounted a major media campaign to make people believe Bay Meadows is all but ready to close its doors. Rather than writing press releases, they should try reading some because the Thoroughbred Times reported Bay Meadows attendance was up 37.7% in 2005!

For more about the developer’s efforts to stifle the referendum effort, click on or type the URL below:

http://www.sfexaminer.com/articles/2005/11/17/news/20051117_pe01_track.txt

Anonymous said...

October 11, 2007
HBM said:
" ... San Mateo ran him out in 2004 ... "

What, precisely, do you mean by "ran him out"?
October 12, 2007
bay meadows said:
http://www.savebaymeadows.org/news.php

Stockbridge, bay-meadows, is all Kuratek, just like Bend today, its all Kuratek. San Mateo ran Kuratek out, and you can read below how dirty Kuratek played, but he still got run out. Perhaps the hippy's down in the bay aren't wimps?

Another interesting aspect of this story is Kuratek even has the local Sierra Club in his pocket, even though he's as anti-green as they can be, the only green in Kuratek is the color of money.

*

Save Bay Meadows "Day at the Races"
The Save Bay Meadows group had our own “Day at the Races” Sunday, January 29th. We had a race in our name and six of us were invited to the Winner’s Circle to have our picture taken with the winning horse and jockey...
>> Read More

Stockbridge Capital Hires Singer Associates
Stockbridge Capital (Bay Meadows Land Company) has hired Singer Associates from San Francisco to stop people from signing the referendum petitions. Singer Associates’ clients include Bohannon Development (Hillsdale Shopping Center) and Bay Meadows...
>> Read More

FOLLOW THE $$$
Stockbridge Capital, aka Bay Meadows Land Company, has made sizable contributions to politicians and to the Democratic and Republican parties, allowing those parties to dole out funds to candidates as needed...
>> Read More

SM City Council Votes 5-0 to Demolish Bay Meadows
The San Mateo City Council voted 5-0 to destroy San Mateo’s landmark tourist attraction, the historic 71-year-old Bay Meadows racetrack, and replace it with an enormous, high-density office complex of over one-million square feet plus 150,000 square feet of retail space, and 1250 condos.
>> Read More


Stockbridge Capital Hires Signer Associates
November 22, 2005 - Stockbridge Capital (Bay Meadows Land Company) has hired Singer Associates from San Francisco to stop people from signing the referendum petitions. Singer Associates’ clients include Bohannon Development (Hillsdale Shopping Center) and Bay Meadows. It is surprising that the Loma Prieta Chapter of the Sierra Club and our local League of Women Voters support the activities of this group.

Singer Associates has also mounted a major media campaign to make people believe Bay Meadows is all but ready to close its doors. Rather than writing press releases, they should try reading some because the Thoroughbred Times reported Bay Meadows attendance was up 37.7% in 2005!

For more about the developer’s efforts to stifle the referendum effort, click on or type the URL below:

http://www.sfexaminer.com/articles/2005/11/17/news/20051117_pe01_track.txt
October 16, 2007
bay meadows said:
It's interesting that HBM's own lead letter here talks about Juniper Ridge, but even he is afraid to mention the name of one man that runs it all.

Ray Kuratek, $60K/mo of taxpayer money, and $2.5Million to send him away, and a promise of $100Million just for his profit all with public land.

How come HBM can mention "juniper ridge partners LLC", in this lead and FAIL to mention that it is ONLY ONE MAN. RAY Kuratek.

How can you be such a failure HBM??

Anonymous said...

Duncan,

Put away your comic books for a few days, and learn about what's going on in your city.

Perhaps given that ALL of city-hall is living in escapism and mythology, they could be potential comic purchasers??

Anonymous said...

http://www.edcoinfo.com/edco_publications/newsletter/april_2006_newsletter.html

April 2006, EDCO: Please Kuratek, Stop, no don't stop, no don't stop, stop

JUNIPER RIDGE DEVELOPER DEAL IS GETTING ATTENTION
With the acute shortage of light industrial land in Bend pushing prices to 25-30% higher than any other community in Oregon and considerably higher than other larger communities in neighboring states, EDCO has been carefully monitoring and participating in, to the best of our ability, progress on the city-owned property called Juniper Ridge. Twenty years ago, this land was deeded to the City of Bend by Deschutes County for future industrial use. The project started in earnest back in 1999 with an industrial land inventory study and comprehensive search for properties most attractive and logical for development into employment lands. For many reasons, Juniper Ridge was selected as the area for Bend’s future light industrial, business and high tech development. Over the period of 2003-2004, a master plan for Phase I and Phase II of Juniper Ridge was developed by a group of local, regional and state experts in transportation, urban planning, economic development, as well as planners from the city, county and special districts. Last year, the City went through a RFP/RFQ process to select a master developer from the private sector to implement the vision of the master plan. Also in 2005, the City successfully established the Juniper Ridge area as an Urban Renewal District with the authority to raise $40 million to pay for on and off-site improvements including all utility extension and road improvements. Since the selection process, a small number of City staff have been working on an MOU with the developer, represented by Ray Kuratek, who has residential and office park development experience in California.

Details of the MOU negotiations have been few, and rumors are circulating that the City and master developer are planning a mix of residential and other non light industrial/employment uses for the first phase of the project. The Bend Chamber of Commerce and other local business leaders have openly expressed their opposition to this idea, and EDCO is also not in support of further conversion of light industrial land anywhere in the tri-county area to other uses - especially at Juniper Ridge which currently has all of Bend’s future supply. We expect the Juniper Ridge development plan to receive considerable discussion at upcoming Bend City Council meetings and to receive more press in the weeks ahead.

Anonymous said...

https://www.psers.state.pa.us/org/board/resolutions/2005/stockbridge.pdf

In April of 2005 KURATEK was selling phase II of his Stockbrige Investments, LLC to the State of PA for $650 MILLION dollars.

Hey, pension money State of Pennsylvania, we have some development in Bend.

How many conflicts of interest can one person have?

***

Raymond L. Kuratek – Senior Project Manager
Mr. Kuratek has over 30 years of experience in commercial and residential development.
Mr. Kuratek works on asset management and development activities for the Manager,
focusing on project entitlement efforts. He has a B.S. in Finance and an M.B.A. in
Finance from the University of Connecticut.

***

Stockbridge Real Estate Fund II, LP (“Fund II”) is a real estate private equity fund which is
being formed to continue the successful investment activities of Stockbridge Real Estate
Fund, LP (“Fund I”), a $490 million real estate private equity fund of which PSERS is an
investor. Fund II will be managed by Stockbridge Capital Group, LLC (the “Manager”),
which is staffed by the same team of individuals who currently manage Fund I. The
general partner of Fund II, Stockbridge Capital Partners II, LLC (the “General Partner”), is
seeking aggregate capital commitments to Fund II of approximately $500 million, with a
maximum of $650 million.
The professionals at Stockbridge have a proven track record of achieving successful
financial returns on their real estate investments. They have invested approximately
$882 million of equity in transactions with a total cost of $3.1 billion on behalf of Fund I
and Paine Webber Group, Inc. (“PaineWebber”), the original sponsor of Fund I. In
aggregate, the Prior Investments are expected to achieve a gross IRR of
approximately 27%.

Anonymous said...

http://puertopenasco.blogspot.com/2005/03/bendbulletincom.html

Here Ray Kuratek says' he lives in Sun-River, but spends all his time in San Fran, the city says he lives off Knott Rd in Bend.

It's 2005 and Kuratek is on a Bend Housing Committee, but he spends his time in the Bay Area.

Are there ever going to be a consistent story?

Ray Kuratek of Sunriver wore a victorious grin as he waited to board a United Express flight to San Francisco.

"It's good because it will give United competition," said Kuratek, who develops real estate in San Francisco and travels there weekly. "Everyone was screaming for (an eastbound route) and United didn't listen because they had a monopoly."

Anonymous said...

Is Ray Kuratek a pathological liar?

*

BA in History from Stanford University and an MBA in Real Estate from the University of. California at Berkeley.

*

The above from dojuniperright.com

The below from the company he owns "bay meadows" which one is true? Why are there do much mis-information??

There's NO FUCKING way he work for two MBA's, this guy is blow smoke up some ass.

* Development Specialist for Bay Meadows Land Company ( hell he owns bay meadows )

* Joined PaineWebber Real Estate Group in 1997

* B.S. in Finance and M.B.A. in Finance from University of Connecticut

Anonymous said...

SEPT HOUSING STARTS DOWN 10.2%!

and the beat goes on...

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