Thursday, April 19, 2007

Crook County CRAPFEST

An article about more development in Prineville: "Prineville subdivision gets initial approval". Just another of your basic Developers Gone Wild piece, some guy is going to plotz out 877 houses on about 232 acres in Prineville. Yahoo, Big Deal, Been There Done That. This sort of thing seems to happen about 3X/week around here.

But read the stats in this piece and do a little math, and you see these developers are still following the mirage of Never Ending Growth In Central Oregon Will Last Forever.

First they rattle off several Crook County developments:
Anglers Canyon: 877 houses
Rivergate: 300 units
Iron Horse: 2,900 homes
Brasada Ranch, Hidden Canyon and Remington Ranch: 6,000 homes

TOTAL: Just Over 10,000 homes

Wow! Man, Prineville is rockin'! What a smokin' hot RE market they must have! Over 10,000 homes! Dang!

Well, until you read farther down:

"Meanwhile, residential housing has slowed year-to-date from 95 homes sold in 2006 to 40 homes sold in Prineville through Wednesday, according to Southworth, citing data from the Multiple Listings Service."

Huh. 40 homes in the 1st quarter plus 18 days. Well, that's 133/year. So... to absorb 10,000 homes we'll need... well, that doesn't seem right.

OVER 75 YEARS.

Just try to put this in perspective: 75 years ago was 1932. We were in the Great Depression. WWII was still a decade off for us.

Granted, Brasada Ranch ain't exactly downtown Prineville (thank God). But still, there are over 4,000 homes going up in Prineville not counting any of the named destination resorts, and that's 30 YEARS of supply.

I'm not sure what to think about that. Most companies don't last 30 years, much less 75 years. Most companies have a hell of a time projecting forward a year. Do they honestly think they can project forward almost 3 or 4 decades for sleepy little Prineville? If I were a betting man, I'd bet against it. I'm betting that some of these builders get their financial asses handed to them. But I'll give 'em this, they are an optimistic bunch:

"Curry, the Anglers Canyon partner, isn't concerned by the current housing market."I can't say what's going to happen the next year or two, but we're confident about the next 15 years," Curry said."

Sweet! The guy CANNOT predict a year out, but by gum he's got a handle on 15 years out! Drink it down folks! That Central Oregon Kool-Aid don't get much better than this.

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

Wow. I read your post, then the article cuz it doesn't seem possible. I'm not from around there, but you people have some real starry-eyed builders!

Even the smallest of those developments represents years of supply.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

What I notice is that all these developers are from out of town. The last Big Shot to invade Central Oregon, smug-ass arms crossed, ready to take on the World was Randy Sebastian.

How is he doing? I have a vague memory... oh right, he's giving away $26,000 go-karts cuz he can't sell his heinously overpriced crap shacks.

Duncan McGeary said...

O.K. now, THAT's a bubble. It's bothered me that folks weren't using the term bubble for crazy wild weird growth, but for overgrowth, overpriced, etc.

Bubbles aren't just a little out-of-control, they are over the top.

Like this.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Quick update:

Clives inventory counter sits at 2,114, or about 5% away from the all-time high. It literally seems to go up (only) everyday.

Cascade Bancorp (CACB) continues to close in on yearly lows: $23.10 and falling. I honestly thought we could look for a bigger bounce given the severity of the recent sell-off, on bad earnings.

Look for both to continue to deteriorate.

Anonymous said...

What's next? an underground bullet train connecting the Madras, Prineville, LaPine corridor?

--TimToes

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Lyle Lanley: Well, sir, there's nothing on earth
Like a genuine,
Bona fide,
Electrified,
Six-car
Monorail!
What'd I say?

Ned Flanders: Monorail!

Lyle Lanley: What's it called?

Patty+Selma: Monorail!

Lyle Lanley: That's right! Monorail!

[crowd chants `Monorail' softly and rhythmically]

Miss Hoover: I hear those things are awfully loud...

Lyle Lanley: It glides as softly as a cloud.

Apu: Is there a chance the track could bend?

Lyle Lanley: Not on your life, my Hindu friend.

Barney: What about us brain-dead slobs?

Lyle Lanley: You'll be given cushy jobs.

Abe: Were you sent here by the devil?

Lyle Lanley: No, good sir, I'm on the level.

Wiggum: The ring came off my pudding can.

Lyle Lanley: Take my pen knife, my good man.

I swear it's Springfield's only choice...
Throw up your hands and raise your voice!

All: Monorail!

Lyle Lanley: What's it called?

All: Monorail!

Lyle Lanley: Once again...

All: Monorail!

Marge: But Main Street's still all cracked and broken...

Bart: Sorry, Mom, the mob has spoken!

All: Monorail!
Monorail!
Monorail!

[big finish]

Monorail!

Anonymous said...

Too funny!!!
98% will never be built.

Anonymous said...

An inventory of homes so large our friendly little RE trolls can't keep up (or sell). The credit hose has been turned off, a gallon of gas is headed north of $3.50 and the dollar is getting crushed (hit a two year low this week against the Euro) The housing bubble would be painful enough but we could be headed for economic ruin. "zero zero party over we're out of time." Oh that's right Bend is the only place on this planet that people want to retire - kool-aid yummy give me more.

Ticktock.

Anonymous said...

Not to go off the topic of Crook County, but how about the huge article in yesterday's Bulletin about the 15th and Wilson project that will "transform" southeast Bend? Hundreds-o-homes. I don't know if it was an article or a press release.

NotAnotherDestinationResort said...

Doesn't everybody want to live dozens of miles away from any real infrastructure?

Anonymous said...

Full disclosure to all:
I closed out my CACB short position yesterday. Too tempting to lock in those big profits. In at 30 and out at 23.
Thank you to all those who offered encouragement. I hope that I helped some of you make some profits too.
Best regards
-CACB Shorter (Formerly)

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

CACB Shorter: GOOD SHOW! I was hoping you were going to bail soon. Seems like things were getting too good (too bad?) to keep going.

I still think CACB is worth in the mid-upper teens. I think it's a proxy for Deschutes County essentially becoming a sub-prime black hole. But I think it hitting mid teens is a ways off, and you got the meat of the decline.

Good Job! You may be the first & only person to specifically profit from the degrading Bend home market.

Anonymous said...

"how about the huge article in yesterday's Bulletin about the 15th and Wilson project that will "transform" southeast Bend? Hundreds-o-homes. I don't know if it was an article or a press release."

With Bulletin stories, it's often hard to tell.

Anonymous said...

If it was paid for, it was an ad. Otherwise, it was a press release.

I don't think the Bulletin published these "articles" of which you speak.

Anonymous said...

The Wandering Eye blog on the Source website reports (http://www.tsweekly.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=1322&Itemid=71#jc_allComments) that Bend didn't make Relocate.com's Top 100 list of best places to live in the US. (Not even the TOP 100!!)

Fads in places to live come and go. I think Bend's brief day as a chic boomtown has come and gone.

Anonymous said...

Asheville was first. I saw Wilmington in the list, too. My retirement goal is to have one house in Asheville and one in Wilmington. My one complaint with Asheville is how far away from the beach it is. If you're on the east coast, the beach is great (it's warm, not freezin' cold).