Sisters, Duncan, Inventory, and David

A short post on a few topics of interest:

First, I read a very interesting article in the Nugget News, the Sisters newspaper. It's interesting in that it is not the usual egregious fluff piece, basically saying that Mrs X did task Y and hence should receive 6 Nobel Peace Prizes. It's a fairly introspective piece, "Sisters at an economic crossroads". Here is an excerpt:

A few are thinking toward the future and trying to attract the kind of business that will provide a sustainable economy.

"I would like to attract businesses to the area that will be low impact, businesses like software engineers or other high tech businesses that will bring young families and build a financial base for the city that is not driven only by the tourist season," said Shane Lundgren, area resident and property developer.

The Sisters Area Chamber of Commerce is on the same page, if not in the same paragraph.

"We would like to get a person to help the chamber that understands economic development: someone who could find a way to attract business and investment in Sisters that would lead toward a sustainable economy; someone that could help find ways to attract the kind of businesses we would like to have," said Mills.

Aspen Lakes Golf Course has come to grips with the idea of building a sustainable economy.

"We have a good tourist base, but we want to expand our base in Sisters," said Grant Cyrus, general manager. "We would like our new clubhouse to be a magnet for Sisters."

Software engineers? High-tech businesses? Building a sustainable economy?

Sounds like someone may have been listening to old Paul-doh! I have whaled fairly consistently on Sisters for being an insular, in-bred, oldboy, Boss Hogdom town. And I think they are starting to realize what happens when you do this: You end up with a withered, non-diversified and lethargic economic base. Sisters has 3 industries: Real estate, tee-shirts, and real estate. When the cycle is on the upswing, all is well. But we're entering the downswing, and I think this town is beginning to do a little soul-searching.

Personally, I think it's too late. It's too late for most of Central Oregon. We had our shot, and we blew it. Boss Hog said Throw Every Cent BACK Into RE, and we complied. After all, the news in the local papers made it sound like a fantasic idea! But, at least Sisters may be facing the music, and will start taking the right steps.

Duncan put up a post a few days ago that I just got to. First sentence:

"I'm beginning to wonder if BendBubble2 blog hasn't been right in ---what I have felt up to now was his over the top criticisms of the Bend City Council."

Over the top? Me? Perish the thought! Possibly he was referring to my conservatively titled March 1 post:

HUMMEL RESIGNS: CITIZENS REJOICE

Excerpt from Duncan:

"if you have suspicions, it certainly could appear that some of the councilors are there for personal gain."

Duncan then lists a litany of self-dealing, shady practices that have transpired in this town, some of which don't reflect too highly on the ethical standards of our beloved Bend City Councilors. I recommend this post for an extremely well-written and informative read.

Clive Holloways Inventory Counter just busted through the 2,000 mark this week. (I'm not really sure what the cause of that weird plunge is, although murmurs at BendBB suggest it is a data error.) Anyway, homes for sale in the Bend area are at 2,055. Bend media will say "Nothing to see here, move along", but this is an historically unprecedented number that DOES NOT bode well for the much anticipated Spring selling season.

Speaking of which, I am much looking forward to the release of David Fosters March RE market summary. It will almost certainly be the subject of my next post. I'm not really predicting much change in the price area, but I do think absolute dollar and unit volumes will be down YoY. March is the first month to give a little glimpse of how Spring will go. If it's in the doldrums, and a lot of the pie-in-the-sky $650K and up crowd doesn't get flooded with offers 40% higher than their ask at their Open House, we could see the next 6 months get UGLY.

And that's what I think will happen. There are way too many people here in a Kool-Aid coma who have been led to believe that because Bend is populated by Gods Chosen People, that their house is worth 25% more than comps. And in heaven, you don't mark down your house when it doesn't sell, you keep it up and just wait for the Biggest Idiot In the 35 State Area to arrive with their Bucket-O-Money, ready to buy YOUR HOUSE. And they will. After all, there are only 7,450,123,892 more exactly like it within a stones throw, and they could be snapped up just like that.

I think buyers are going to see prices (and the monster glut of inventory) this Spring in Bend, and pull a George Bush Sr:

NOT


GONNA


DO IT!