Monday, October 29, 2007

"Renaissance Homes Declares Chapter 11 Bankruptcy"

...would be a great title for a post when Renaissance Homes declares bankruptcy. But, as of yet, they have not.

As many of you probably do, you might read this blog & BendBB regarding the housing bubble in Central Oregon. And if you think about "the housing bubble" issue here, it is really a "rumor" as well. I mean, how can you unequivocally say "Bend real estate is in a bubble", or "The Bend real estate bubble has burst"? I would say, "You can't". Hell, home prices could rise hundreds of percent (as they have), then get crushed by 50%, and there will still be True Believers who say there never was a bubble. The Bubble is ill-defined and a matter of opinion & speculation, and can never be unequivocally proved or disproved as such.

This brings me to the recent Renaissance Homes bankruptcy rumor that got posted to BendBB on Wednesday. The bulk of the thread, which got very popular quickly has been stripped away, except for the final post by "Renaissance Homes":

We don't know how this rumor started and you all need to know that we are alive and well and anyone who really cares would call us and find out the truth. We are currently ahead in number of sales this year over last and last year our sales doubled over the previous year. We are proud of our reputation and quality of our homes and our focus will continue to be on raising the bar in our green building practices.

BendBB responded regarding "faked" posts:

"Renaissance Homes" is renaissance-homes.com. If someone other than renaissance-homes.com posts using the name "Renaissance Homes" I'll remove the message.

And:

Registered users like "Renaissance Homes" supply an email address when they join, and of course the bulletin board software logs the IP address on all posts (regardless of whether the poster is registered or unregistered). In the case of "Renaissance Homes", his or her email address is in the renaissance-homes.com domain and looking up the IP address in ARIN yields "Renaissance Homes" so I'm confident that post came from someone at the company.

In general I'm not interested in posters' IP addresses or identities, but in this case you raised a question about whether the message was really from Renaissance Homes and I answered it for you.


This is well-meaning, but unfortunately flawed & impossible. Faked email headers, anonymous remailers, and cloaking IP's easily make such "identification" impossible. Fake the 'renaissance-homes.com' email Sender header, ping to find the IP, anonymize your IP with ifconfig, and Bam, you are renaissance-homes.com.

Did this happen on BendBB? Probably not, it was probably them. Key word being "probably". But what this episode really does, is give crackers a way to render the BB a wasteland. ANYONE, with the time & inclination, can delete ANYONE'S history of commentary. How? Well, here is BendBB's stated policy:

The policy is that if someone asks to have a message he or she posted removed, I will remove it. It's really that simple.

Ah ha. So Cracker A uses an anonymous proxy, goes to BendBB, asks that all of "Paul-doh!"'s comments and posts be deleted, states the differing IP is because he's found religion regarding anonymous proxy, and Bam... all the offending posts are gone.

That's The End Result of the Renaissance rumor. But I don't even understand the beginning. The Wizard posted it, CLEARLY said it was a "rumor", and hence began a hunt for the truth, a hunt participated in by MANY, including BendBB, me, Timmy, and many other "regulars". The rumor was not proven, refuted, or anything else, but many, including board moderators, were keenly interested in this thread. It piled up the comments.

Now, is there a downside to this? Duncan says Yes:

Rumors are a nasty and very, very unfair thing.

Timmy as well:

...people can start rumors deliberately to hurt their competition. Or over a personal grievance. No one was able to corroborate the rumor, so it may have been malicious.

OK, there is a downside, I admit that. But this ignores the idea that in Life, there is a gray zone. It seems to intimate that No Rumors Shall Ever See The Light Of Day. This is unreasonable & impossible. The idea that Bend has a "housing bubble" could be correctly characterized as a "rumor". Columbia Air would have to be acknowledged as "Completely Fine" up to the second that they went BK. What about Becky Breeze selling "most of her Plaza units"? Truth or rumor? DuBois selling out Franklin Crossing? We subsequently found these items were printed as truth, when they was No Such Thing. Shit, "All The Presidents Men" is almost in it's entirety about how vague, non-confirmed "rumor" brought down a President.

I'm not Pro-Rumor, but saying that rumors won't be tolerated, would shutdown this blog as well as BendBB. And I'm also not saying I have some sort of magic answer that I'm withholding from the World. What bothers me is that BendBB has started down a slippery slope; as I said, any decent cracker can now, with moderate effort, have ALL posts by an offending person wiped out. That's the policy. They can also have any offending thread deleted using the same methods. All for the sake of preventing "malicious rumors". I mean, they burned witches at the stake using similar logic.

And I have been asked, several times, to "delete" offending posts, repetitive posts (you know who you are :-), and I've declined, and it's been for this reason. BendBilboBuster rubs a lot of people the wrong way, even me sometimes (I did the same to BEM, I'm sure). But once you start interjecting your own interpretation on whether a post is "repetitive", "stupid", "rumor", "fact", or a lot of other things... you start down a slippery slope. Pretty soon so-and-so's posts really start to grind on you, and well it's "repetitive"... or "stupid"... or whatever. And pretty soon the entire blog is basically a "filtered" version of what the moderator thinks is "appropriate".

And in some (many?) instances, that's just fine. BEM did it, Duncan does it, BendBB does it... and it is "mostly" to good effect. And I say "mostly" not because I am the All Seeing Eye, but as a "community understanding" type of word. You will not agree with me all the time and vice versa, even if we are "mostly" in agreement. "Most" of the time, moderation works OK. But the problem is, when it doesn't.

I don't agree with BendBB's choices, but my opinion is irrelevant, it's his gig. But this is My Gig.... for better or worse. And I've probably said this before, but I have a few simple principles with how this thing is administrated:

1) It's anonymous to the extent that commenters want it to be. You can only "out" yourself. It's Cool if you do (Duncan), or don't (almost everyone else).
2) I don't give a shit about who you are in the technical sense... I do NOT check IP's, nor have I investigated whether it's possible via JavaScript (it probably is... but I tend not to think about coding JavaScript, it gives me a headache), or other means.
3) You can post whatever the fuck you want, including rumor, fact, or your fuckin' dick size. I don't care. Well... I DO care, cuz irrelevant bullshit kinda dilutes the message. But the "workaround" is just skipping bullshit messages.
4) This thing is a free-for-all of opinion. You can respond to whatever, and post whatever, and I will support or shoot it down in the same comment area as everyone else. I have NEVER deleted a single comment, whether mine or anyone else's.
(I have seen "deletion" links appear at times in the comment area. But these must be short-lived bugs in Blogger, because they disappear with a refresh, and I cannot reproduce them. Needless to say, I don't delete anything...)

These "rules" aren't a panacea. Anarchy has it's problems. I'm just saying this is the model I've set up, and while I'm not "100% satisfied" with how it works out sometimes, making it "100% satisfactory" to me would be The End, as far as I'm concerned. That's when people like the "Renaissance Thought Police" are running the show, not you or me.

So I'll end this section with the following:

Fuck you in the ass Renaissance Homes and Randy Sebastian, you hypocritical motherfucking douchebags. I HOPE you fuckers go bankrupt, and predict that YOU WILL. You hypocritical buttfuckers claim to be "Green", all the while blocking elk migration paths for the sake of selling ONE FUCKING HOME NO ONE WANTS. You dumbshits can't sell what you're building now. Next time you immigrate to Take Over The Local Markets, don't arrive with your Gay Bar, homo-erotic cross armed smug bullshit. Fuck you.

Guess what? "Renaissance Homes" can have at it now in the comments. Just like everyone else. So have at it RH, you cocksuckers. Why don't you address the elk migration blockage? Just once, help us to understand THAT, instead of posting meaningless bullshit financial PR crap. Here, I'll get you started:

Renaissance Homes Increases Gross Sales Year to Date 2007 over Prior Year

As Warren Buffett points out, all you have to do is deposit money in a savings account to have "record revenue". Rate of return cut in half? Just more than double your input, and BAM, you got "record revenue".

“This is a tremendous testament to the power of our local real estate market, and these positive sales figures reinforced that we are creating and building beautiful homes that are well accepted by the market,” said Randy Sebastian, President of Renaissance Homes. “The Northwest is a bright spot in our nation’s housing, and we had the best first quarter sales in the company’s 23 year history.”

Well, we'll see now that Portland is going to shit. "Well accepted in the marketplace"... I drive by Renaissance Ridge, and the only thing I see that's "well accepted" is For Sale signs.

“We have been proactive in our approach to the market with great pricing, incentives and programs to help buyers sell their existing homes.” The net sales dollar volume for the first three quarters is well over $111 million.

Yeah, you bitches have to give away Go Karts to sell your homes. As Duncan said, "Who gives a shit about revenue?" Columbia Air had record revenue every fuckin year. Right up to when they filed the Big BK. If you value, buy, or sell a business based on revenue, you're a Sucker.

Renaissance Homes is locally owned and is a leader in green building practices.

"Hi, I'm Randy Sebastian, and I'm a hypocritical transsexual pathological liar who likes to fuck sheep." See Sebastian... this is where you've separated yourself from Pahlisch, Woodhill and the rest: You're a fucking HYPOCRITE. "Green building practices"? FUCK YOU. Every time I hear that from your butt ugly face, I think of you slaughtering an elk herd for the privilege of building & THEN LOSING MONEY on ONE FUCKIN' HOUSE. Motherfuckin' scumbag.

PREDICTION:

Renaissance Homes goes broke in 2008

But I don't want to pick solely on Renaissance. There are some big fish that are going down around here in the next 12-24 months. So here's a sneak peak at Paul-doh's first bi-anal Implode-O-Meter:

10) Franklin Crossing & Big downtown commercial/condo live/work crap -- will take years to sell & lease, some will be foreclosed
9)
Steve Trono's Mercato, and other similar mega-projects -- won't get built
8) Mass, and I mean MASS, industrial exodus, failures, and bankruptcies

7) Downtown goes Ghost Town -- minimum double digit vacancies
6) Bank branch closings at minimum, and buyouts/failures at worst

5) Large franchised RE brokers go bust -- Morris in The Old Mill for one

4) Destination Resorts -- mass failures and abandonment

3) Idiot Projects -- The Shire, Redmond Water Park -- you know those things ain't gonna fly

2) The Plaza -- goes under, plus B&T go to the Big D, and I don't mean Dallas

1) Sisters, Prineville, and finally the City of Bend -- all will go broke.


Some of these things are already happening, such as industrial exodus. There will be almost NO living-wage jobs in Cent OR by 2012, which is only about 4 years away. We're massively over-banked & over-retailed -- that's going to correct. Idiotic project that never should have gotten funded will die. The small boutique RE broker is already getting pinched, the Big Boys are next. Builders big & small will implode, Renaissance being one of many. The Plaza is simply dying, and there's seems to be no price too low to sell these dogs. Even Pahlisch Homes well executed & uniquely located Deschutes Landing development was simply inspired by a financial perception that is no longer valid; not every third person is a multi-millionaire looking to live in Bend Oregon. THAT is the key to most of the above pending disasters: Billions thrown at projects conceived in a short period of time when constraint & rationality were almost totally abandoned. These billions will simply be lost. Bend will at some point actually start to SHRINK in population.


Holz-Tek:

OK, now I'm hoping I can leave the Holz-Tek thing alone for awhile after just saying this: Kuratek & Holzman are Dead Right. Saying that these 2 shysters are being jerked around at the 11th hour is an understatement. City Council is simply playing a game of Cover Your Ass after the public outrage over the incredibly one-sided circle jerk proposed by Holz-Tek was accepted wholesale, without even a whimper of protest.

OK, these 2 wankers grifted our stupid ass City Council fair & square. Now Councilors have hired Garzini to attempt to weasel out of the deal. I LOVE that the two parties are both "very desirous" of moving forward with JR... RIGHT! I also love that both parties have resorted to sniping at each other in The Bulletin. Kuratek's a litigious ass, City Council is a bunch of indian givers. AWESOME! But, Oh Yes, both are doing All In Their Power to somehow mend their relationship. Oh God. Please, no more.

I think the only thing written in blood, is Holz-Tek's $2.5MM golden showers parachute. And they'll get that. They're trying to get more now. And the key to them getting more is their beloved Master Plan; something straight out of Dr Evil, or Goldfinger, or something. Oh yes, their vaunted & HIGHLY PRIZED Master Plan. I have managed to smuggle a copy of the Holz-Tek Master Plan via a Mind-Meld with a helper chimp in the Holz-Tek command bunker:

Ahhhh yes, there it is in all it's glory, the much prized Master Planning Document for Juniper Ridge, Ray Kuratek sitting in a Pot-O-Gold getting drunk as an Irishman. Created at a cost of... well, look at that $2.5MM! Exactly what Holz-Tek can spank the City of Bend for if we end up with Cold Feet.

You know WHY Holzman is so RELUCTANT to let the City of Bend BUY the Master Planning document? Well, you should take another look at the above Accurate Representation of The Master Planning Document. There is HARDLY anything to it. Even Holz-Tek , the 2 biggest sleaze munkees for 5,000 sq miles KNOW they can't hand over what they've got for $2.5MM... cuz they got squat. This whole thing was a flim-flam ripoff. It's exactly this sort of incredible OVERPAYMENT FOR NOTHING that will break this town. Remember the post on ADA improvements? The City ROUTINELY overpays by 1,000%... ALL THE TIME. Holz-Tek are just one more in a long line of Old Boy Networking deals. These things are FINE when you are riding a rising tide of property tax revenues that seem like they will go geometric forever.

But the Bust has arrived, with a vengeance. Look at that Top 10 Failure List... ALL THAT STUFF IS GOING TO HAPPEN. It'll take years. And it'll just grind people down, they will start leaving en masse. For some perspective, here's the Case Shiller data for Los Angeles from Jan 1987 to Dec 2000:

Those are month numbers across the bottom, sorry cannot figure the stupid X-axis thing on gnumeric this morning. But you can see after a major runup in home prices which peaked in Jan 1990, there was a bone-crushing decline of 27% that took about 7 1/2 years. It was in Jan 2000 that LA home prices finally recovered to where they were exactly 1 decade previously. 10 years of zero appreciation. And LA's price inflation PALES in comparison to what Cent OR has experienced.

Realize that there have been LARGE declines in large, economically diverse urban areas in this country. LA s one of the largest urban areas to have such a decline, but the largest magnitude declines are in smaller markets that get caught in the crosshairs of imploding industries that dominate their regions. Sound like anywhere you know?

If you think about it, at least 50%, and probably closer to 75% of what Bend is today is the DIRECT product of the RE bubble. A lot of people will object to this. "Hey, I would have sold a hell of a lot of Hummers despite this bubble!". Ummm, right. The first, second and third tier economic spillover effects of this bubble probably account for 100% of ALL GROWTH this area has experienced in the last 5 years.... maybe more. In small towns like Sisters, I am quite sure that RE accounts for well over 100% of all growth in the past 5 years.

Now we'll start to pay The Piper.

Unfortunately, The Piper won't be the smokin' hot Billie Piper. If it was, maybe it'd be worth staying in Bend. Anyway, I've lost my train of Billie. Sorry, I have Billie on the brain. Damn it, I wish I was Dr Who!

Mark My Words: Bend Is Right Now Beginning a Decade+ Long Financial Implosion That Will Rank Among The Largest Ever Experienced By Any US City.

262 comments:

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Anonymous said...

Well, after a morning cup of coffe reading this weeks blog there is only ONE serious question to ask? Will we beat last weeks 326 comments?

And secondly, you and RB should go our for drinks...LOL

Bruce said...

Great rant, even by your standards :)

BTW, I was going to post this yesterday but seemed to have forgotten. Next time our fine city council breaks the law, let's file suit within 60 days and make it very public. Here's the scoop:

Re: Broken open meeting laws

The most egregious example is the Les Schwab deal. It was blatantly illegal. I did a comment explaining it here (see second comment): http://pegasus-dunc.blogspot.com/2007/09/what-is-wrong-with-our-city-council.html

It's a response to Duncan's 9/7/07 post "What is wrong with our city council?"

Briefly, the council blatantly broke ORS 192.640 by meeting without 24 hours notice and not ratifying it as an actual emergency.

ORS 192.680 concerns enforcement of this law as well as the validity of any decisions made and the liablility of memebers. It has a big out in that it states "A decision made by a governing body of a public body in violation of ORS 192.610 to 192.690 shall be voidable. The decision shall not be voided if the governing body of the public body reinstates the decision while in compliance with ORS 192.610 to 192.690." The council never did this, as far as I can tell from the minutes following the illicit session.

680 also states "Any person affected by a decision of a governing body of a public body may commence a suit in the circuit court for the county in which the governing body ordinarily meets, for the purpose of requiring compliance with, or the prevention of violations of ORS 192.610 to 192.690...", but that "Any suit brought under subsection (2) of this section must be commenced within 60 days following the date that the decision becomes public record."

And no one did, back then.

Next time we will.

Anonymous said...

Regarding the difficulty of telling at what point of a bubble that you're in: See the nice series of pictures about the national housing bubble at the following website. It makes it pretty clear:

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/10/27/some-housing-pictures/

Anonymous said...

Just posted over at BendBB...Deschutes County records are only showing one house that has closed in Renaissance Ridge aka "Aspen Rim" since Aug 1.

Maybe this rumor of Renaissance Homes going Bankrupt has some merit.

Anonymous said...

You sir are one ballsy MF...who IMO is usually pretty accurate.

Keep up the good work...

Anonymous said...

'Bends Future Prison Industry’ and how the growth of such an industry relates to growing inequality and the need to ‘manage’ or ‘contain’ the ‘surplus population.’ Profits are a major moving force in this process, rather than the goal of reducing crime and suffering. An important component of this industry is the ‘prison industrial complex,’ one of the fastest growing industries in the U.S. Also included is a rapidly growing private security industry that includes private police and security guards, along with a growing supply of technology to aid in the ‘war on crime.’ Other components include drug testing companies, gated communities, and a booming gun industry. We conclude by outlining possible explanations for the growth of this industry.

October 28, 2007 8:35 AM
Anonymous said...

[2] Ron Garzini, US private prison booster, quoted in Christian Parenti 'Lockdown America: Police and Prisons in the Age of Crisis

*

Ok, here's the deal; answering the rhetorical question. How does Garzini fit into BEND, gated communitys,... Brooks Security Services, ... Bend Stewards.

Garzini is a NUMBER-ONE spokesman in America for the issue of 'managing an un-needed population', solution prison privitization.

Garzini is the critical link to 'cleaning up' central oregon. Note the new prison up in Madras is part of the over-all picture.

Garzini is the critical link at the federal level for the Oregon Laboratory. I don't even want to get into that, Oregon was designated back in the 1950's post WWII to be a sociological laboratory to study population policy management.

The reason that Garzini is a 'fix-it' man, is that behind the scenes he has powers at the Federal Level. He also has the second most powerful lobby in America behind him, #1 military-industrial-complex, #2 prison-industrial-complex.

Ron Garzini is a leader of #2.

Welcome to Bend, Oregon.

Anonymous said...

.Deschutes County records are only showing one house that has closed in Renaissance Ridge aka "Aspen Rim" since Aug 1.
*
This is a story within itself. You was the dumb cali-cocksucking mother fucker, and how in the hell did he get a jumbo? Must have been a cash deal, let's call it the greatest fool theory, the last cali with cash came here and closed aug-1,

That's it Sebastian, now its low income housing.

Anonymous said...

Briefly, the council blatantly broke ORS 192.640 by meeting without 24 hours notice and not ratifying it as an actual emergency.

*

Thanks, I was going to do a post on this today over at bendbubble.blogspot.com, all this talk about beendbb and garzini, is OFF track the NUMBER ONE thing bothering me To Date is this xmas deal that city-council did in Executive last xmas with Les-Schwab, we still don't know how much, or what were the terms, ...


Yes, Executive session must be ... Public Safety ( emergency powers ), Human Resources, or NSC ( national security NSC-68, or Homeland Security ) ...

The deal that I wanted to write about today, and I'll try and get it done, but it gets back to the reason they brought Kuratek and Garzini IN, the common thread with these two is they're both 'block-grant' experts at the Federal Level, they go around and get Federal Money. They know each other, and have been working together for years.

The City-Council deal fell apart a few months ago when council announced they needed PR, and they brought back Garzini. It's good cop/bad cop, where Garzini is bad cop, and Kuratek is good cop.

Yes, I find it amazing that we have all the pieces of the puzzle, but still ALL the word is that Les-Schwab is coming to Juniper-Ridge, even without ODOT money, ...

I have printed it for awhile, and BEM made me go there the other day, and I have avoided the issue for sometime, but follow the National Prison Complex, and Follow the use of Executive Session for NSC-68, which is basically 'management of surplus population', Garzini is a national expert.

The WHOLE program here, and I'll write more, because I had to wait until the story broke. The reason for the executive session, and Garzini, and Kuratek. Is that Juniper-Ridege is targeted to become the largest private prison in the country and the convicts will be making Les Schwab tires.

This all had to be planned under Executive Session until now. When the mission blew this fall, this is why Garzini was brought back in.

It's now been going on now for at least three years the use of executive-session for emergency, under NSC for the containment of 'surplus population' in the Eastern Oregon Desert. The word at the federal level is that they want to relocate the compounds in place the guards want to live, as working eight hour shits in a prison is tiresome.

The word is right now that the Federal Bureau of Prisons is going to pickup the ODOT Cooley/97 interchange. Dubya doesn't have much time left so the project has been expedited, but the plan, and Garzini has been the spokesperson for the past ten years of his life is to create the perfect model of a self-sustaining 'private-prison' model.

The whole reason for Residential brought into Juniper-Ridge is for employee housing, and the reason for going from 500 acres to 1500 was to the largest private-prison in the country.

Now for the answer from 'bruce' about the emergency nature of executive-session of the Les-Schwab deal. They know the Citizens of Bend would be opposed, but 1,000's of jobs will be created. Now that Bend is imploding the city-council realizes its the only way to keep Bend afloat.

The NSC exception for executive-session is largely a FEMA issue during uncertain times, and mass unrest. Thus legally all planning and implementation of the Juniper Ridge Federal Prison System has been completely top-secret to date.

crallspace said...

We just bought a house in Corvallis... just in time for prices to stagger. Bend is a sad place, with all the SUVs w/ California plates. I really do sympathize, but the vipers are here too.

Anonymous said...

"It's taken care of, Boss. I told them "Try this again and I will kill you're mothers, fuck your sisters, and turn your brothers into eunuchs."

"Good job, Garzini. What we owe ya."

"Truth is, I like my work. I would've done it for nothing."
*
The above is the QUOTE OF THE DAY, but truth is its NOT fiction, in the world of Prison-Privatization that Garzini comes from, the same people and world that brought us Abu-Ghraib, these 'mob like' attitudes are a way of life.

Remember, Bend Oregon, is a Mob Town.

Anonymous said...

The reason for the executive session, and Garzini, and Kuratek. Is that Juniper-Ridege is targeted to become the largest private prison in the country and the convicts will be making Les Schwab tires.


Truth is always stranger than fiction.

Anonymous said...

The BULL below has a BIO, of Garzini, but yet fails to mention the simple fact that his first love and passion if prison privatization. How could the BULL have missed this? Unless they are simply cutting & pasting Garzini's own resume like they do Kurateks??

**

Ron Garzini over the years

•Twice served as interim city manager.
•Worked to get $600,000 in block grants for a new senior center.
•Proposed hooking up south Bend customers of troubled Juniper Utility Co. to city water and sewer lines.
•Encouraged city councilors to purchase land allowing the city to build the Bill Healy Memorial Bridge and persuaded them to give the project the green light.
•Mended the relationship between the Central Oregon Irrigation District and the city of Redmond.
•Addressed traffic problems throughout the city of Bend.
•Proposed a fixed-route bus system for the city of Bend.
•Organized the West Bend Traffic Consortium to improve roadways and put in roundabouts.
•Took the helm of the Juniper Ridge project, a proposed mixed-use development of 1,500 acres in north Bend.

Anonymous said...

And secondly, you and RB should go our for drinks...LOL

*

Duncan's paying, tomorrow night Deschutes Happy Hour. $3 Jubel, and $5 custom burgers, and lots of BULL, and blogger-fodder,

Fucking the coffee, its beer time.

Anonymous said...

Ron Garzini Story; Think Like a Business, in a town dominated by Prison & Tourism. Under Garzini the City owned the Prison at a cost of $45 Million. The Prison industry is the fastest growing business in America! ( 1982 ) The private 'Garzini' prison was the largest in Alaska. The City of Seward was going to get rich caging the convicts of Alaska.

Garzini convinced the city council (seward 1982) to think like a business and worry first about keeping money flowing into the city before devoting energy to spending it. "Most councils don't have the nerve to do those kinds of things, and most managers don't have the nerve to recommend them," he says.



Over on the east side of town along Resurrection Bay, the Spring Creek Correctional Center is another government project brought to town by Seward's aggressive community development approach. To construct the project in early 1980s, Seward issued nearly $45 million in certificates of participation (similar to revenue bonds), and the state chipped in $22.6 million. The city became responsible for construction and is owner of the prison, which it leases to the state. Today, the prison supports a staff of 200 and is expanding to house an average of 450 prisoners.

"THINK LIKE A BUSINESS"

When Ron Garzini came to Seward as city manager in 1982, 18 years after the earthquake, the town still had problems. Winter unemployment was 28 percent, there was no scheduled shipping, the undersized electrical utility limited growth potential, and public facilities like the boat harbor and city campgrounds lost money.

Garzini convinced the city council to think like a business and worry first about keeping money flowing into the city before devoting energy to spending it. "Most councils don't have the nerve to do those kinds of things, and most managers don't have the nerve to recommend them," he says.

But the effort paid off. In his seven years as Seward's city manager, Garzini oversaw the construction of the state prison.


"THINK LIKE A BUSINESS"

When Ron Garzini came to Seward as city manager in 1982, 18 years after the earthquake, the town still had problems. Winter unemployment was 28 percent, there was no scheduled shipping, the undersized electrical utility limited growth potential, and public facilities like the boat harbor and city campgrounds lost money.

Garzini convinced the city council to think like a business and worry first about keeping money flowing into the city before devoting energy to spending it. "Most councils don't have the nerve to do those kinds of things, and most managers don't have the nerve to recommend them," he says. FAITH IN THE FUTURE

The greatest challenge facing Seward's policy makers these days is finding the money to plan for growth and respond to increasing demands for services. Seward faces a pleasant identity crisis from the surge of people drawn in the past five years by the unlikely combination of tourism and the state's largest prison.

**

Need $30M to build a prison or $45M ( 1982 dollars ) who cares, AIG will loan the money at 20%/yr.

Anonymous said...

It's like a hotel with a guaranteed occupancy.
– Ron Garzini, Private prison promoter, quoted in Parenti (1999a: 211).

* What a perfect FIT Bend Tourism/Prison - Excess Capacity, Gated Community's Solution??? Guarantee occupancy and payment of hotel*

THE ROLE OF PRIVATE PRISON COMPANIES IN THE CONTINUED
GROWTH OF THE DETENTION ESTATE
It's like a hotel with a guaranteed occupancy.
– Ron Garzini, Private prison promoter, quoted in Parenti (1999a: 211).
Punishing people is big business … It is a multinational industry, which involves not
only obvious players like security firms, but also less obvious players like catering
companies, suppliers of prison furniture and clothing, and anyone who sells goods or
services used in jails. The danger for public policy is obvious: there are global
interests, with a direct interest in world-wide incarceration. (Lilly 1993: 20).

Anonymous said...

Garzini is sooo Bend, Prisons & Tourism. Look at The Source, every week pic's of meth addicts our new criminals, we need criminals, and Garini needs occupants for his new hotel. We need to manufacturer a crisis in Central Oregon, and fill our Juniper Ridge Prison, and everyone in Bend will get rich!

**

It's More Profitable to Treat the Disease than to Prevent it: Why the Prison Industrial Complex Needs Crime




"While arrests and convictions are steadily on the rise, profits are to be made - profits from crime. Get in on the ground floor of this booming industry now!"[1]



"It's like a hotel with a guaranteed occupancy."[2]



"A business comes in and a year or two it can't support itself... (a prison) "is something you know is going to be there for a long time.@[3]



"The opportunities and options in the field are endless."[4]



“There are no seasonal fluctuations, it is a non-polluting industry, and in many circumstances it is virtually

invisible."[5]

“If crime doesn’t pay, punishment certainly does…”[6]

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Here's sort of a weird description for a Renaissance Ridge (Aspen Rim) home:

OWNER FINANCING! Compare with the model homes by Renaissance Homes.... A perfect outdoor kitchen w/ fireplace, gas grill & kitchen unit for sunny summer entertaining & grilling year round. A home that lingers on your mind long after you've gone.

"Long after you've gone"? Does that mean after I'm dead?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Maybe we should hook up Garzini & Randy Sebastian. Renaissance is selling this:

"The classic Deschutes, Big house... "

The classic Deschutes big house.. now Garzini can run his own prison in Renaissance Ridge! That's what I call Win-Win!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Is that Juniper-Ridege is targeted to become the largest private prison in the country and the convicts will be making Les Schwab tires.

Now THAT would be funny.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

We just bought a house in Corvallis

Can I come live in the basement?

Anonymous said...

Is that Juniper-Ridge is targeted to become the most PROFITABLE private prison in the country and the convicts will be making Les Schwab tires.

Now THAT would be funny.

*

They might pull it off, this could explain the need for $30M from AIG. When Garzini Built the Seward Prison, he got city hall to float a $45M bond, and they built the largest prison in Alaska.


"It's like a hotel with a guaranteed occupancy."[2] - Ron Garzini


Truth is always stranger than fiction.

Anonymous said...

The classic Deschutes big house.. now Garzini can run his own prison in Renaissance Ridge! That's what I call Win-Win!

*

For some bizarre reason they MUST have Juniper Ridge.

I'm sure the chipmunks and deer-mice will enjoy Sebastian-Ville very much.

Anonymous said...

Smoking Gun Renaissance Bankruptcy
Well its been found, the smoking gun that proves that Sebastian will now pay the piper.

Anonymous said...

"Economic Development Consultant"

One solution is development of a new waterfront in Cordova. Ron Garzini, an economic development consultant for the city, recently unveiled a "Waterfront Master Plan" that includes small shops, two new hotels, ship-repair facilities, a new seafood processing plant, a visitor center and increased parking along Cordova's harbor.

Anonymous said...

"Roseberg/Medford" Facilitator?

� Urban Growth Boundary Workshop meeting on July 7

� Strategic Planning Session on August 5 and 6; preparation meetings on July 15th and 16th with facilitator Ron Garzini

http://www.ci.roseburg.or.us/cityHome/agendas/agdCouncil.php?articleID=384

Anonymous said...

Bend Public Voted BAT down, Garzini Shoved it up their ASS. Is there any unpopular project this guy can't get done??
.....
Interim City Manager Ron Garzini has proposed establishing an
independent transit district funded in part with a new property tax of
roughly 29 cents per $1000 assessed value. The proposal has gained
approval from Deschutes County Commissioners and will go to Bend
voters.
ON BALLOT
11/02/04
DEFEATED 41%
TO 53%

Anonymous said...

Let's be done, when I tell you to shut the fuck up, DO-IT. Issue Closed because I said so.
*
New bridge over Deschutes at Bend approved

BEND (AP) - A new bridge over the Deschutes River will be built here in an effort to ease traffic congestion caused by the city's rapid growth, city councilors decided.

The city council voted 6-1 Wednesday night to build the southern bridge, saying it would be the best way to move traffic across the river and connect the city's outlying traffic grid.

The largest city in Deschutes County, Bend has more than doubled in size over the past decade: from 20,000 residents in 1990 to more than 50,000. The population increase has resulted in debate over how to deal with growth-related problems, such as traffic jams.

Voters approved the bridge in an advisory vote on Sept. 18, but not before controversy over the project led to marches, vandalized signs and several public forums.

"This issue has been the most divisive issue in my years in Bend," said City Manager Ron Garzini. "Let's be done with this issue."

Anonymous said...

Voters approved the bridge in an advisory vote on Sept. 18, but not before controversy over the project led to marches, vandalized signs and several public forums.

"This issue has been the most divisive issue in my years in Bend," said City Manager Ron Garzini. "Let's be done with this issue."

*

After the Bridge incident, Garzini had learned never again, would he do what was best for Bend, explicitly. He later brought BAT, and quietly disappeared. When his life's passion of creating the largest and most profitable private prison looked like it was going to fail, he again returned to Bend.

Timothy said...

>>>>We just bought a house in Corvallis

>>Can I come live in the basement?

You'll need scuba gear.

Timothy said...

CACB raised their dividend today, but it didn't goose the flagging share price. Let's see. Stock buyback, dividend boost. What's next, announcing that they've hired an investment bank to look into ways to enhance shareholder value?

This on top of a Bulletin story this weekend that outside banks are encroaching on the business of the locals.

Anonymous said...

A few months ago city-hall said that they needed PR to fix Juniper-Ridge, a few days later they brought Garzini back to town. Within a month Anderson was out.

Garzini back in Bend: Can he advance Juniper Ridge?


All options on the table when it comes to 'tweaking' Juniper Ridge, says new 'assistant to city manager' Ron Garzini
All options on the table when it comes to 'tweaking' Juniper Ridge, says new 'assistant to city manager' Ron Garzini

'Nothing is sacred ground' in possible project changes

By Barney Lerten, KTVZ.COM

After a quarter-century of public-sector work around the Northwest, including two stints as Bend's interim city manager, Ron Garzini was back home in Redmond, retired and ... well, bored.

So, he recalled, he called up current Bend City Manager Andy Anderson a couple of months ago, telling him "I was looking for something to do again."

"I wasn't even thinking of Bend - I was thinking wherever, through the network of (city) managers," said Garzini, at 60 a veteran of local, state and federal government, from managing industrial parks from La Pine to Alaska and, most recently, serving as interim city manager in the Portland suburb of West Linn for four months in 2005.

What Anderson ended up doing was asking for Garzini's help with the storm-tossed project known as Juniper Ridge. On Tuesday, the city announced that Garzini had been brought aboard as "temporary project manager" - but Garzini told KTVZ.COM that's not quite right, as the project already has Jerry Mitchell as a manager of the up to 1,500-acre mixed-use project.

Garzini also said consultant doesn't really fit - and indeed, from the flurry of meetings he's had in his first two days on the job, from project critics to planners, the intended developers, ODOT and, of course, city councilors, Garzini is doing more than just consult.

In essence, he says he's been called in as a "special assistant" to Anderson, to see if he can find a way to narrow the seemingly growing gap between the project's supporters and the critics who have signed and submitted petitions, calling it too big a gamble by the city, a closed-door deal that puts taxpayers at risk.

And Garzini plans to get there - or as close as he can get - in about a month, perhaps less.

No small feat for the former City Hall fill-in who was willing to push hard and help make the Southern River Crossing happen, despite strong criticism by some councilors, who also tried to make transit fly (a bit too soon) and was anything but a quiet, placeholder leader during his 1998-2001 and 2003-2004 stints at the helm of city government.

Garzini is saying already, up front, that changes of some sort will be made to Juniper Ridge, to address his and others' concerns - calling it "tweaking" at one point, but acknowledging later that some might consider them "major" changes.

For example, he's listening to those who think the project has grown too large, and saying adjustments are likely, though the specifics, of course, are still to be hammered out.

"This is a very complicated project," Garzini said. "In the beginning, there's always issues. Part of this one is the complexity of the agreement with the master developer. A lot of folks say it's unusual for the city to be a developer-partner."

"It appears to me that a lot of the criticisms are predicated on not enough information, and a feeling like a lot of activity is going on without a lot of input," Garzini said.

Garzini also said he's not been told that any part of the current direction is off-limits to change: "For me, being the blunt, forthright straight shooter I am, that's not a problem."

Instead, he said he was hired in the part-time role by Anderson, who "gave me simple guidance: making sure the city is protected from financial risk ... I'm trying to find ways to be comfortable with where we are."

Not the words, it would seem, of a hired gun brought in to ramrod through an agreed-to deal and bowl over opponents.

One often-voiced criticism is that the city has positioned Juniper Ridge as the lion's share of a planned urban growth boundary expansion, while leaving out other landholders who want to be included.

"The size of the appropriate UGB is something I'm examining," Garzini said, later explaining that it may well be something between the 500 acres already approved and the 1,350-acre maximum available for development.

He's met at lengthy with the council's main negotiators, Jim Clinton and Mark Capell, adding, "I'm not sure any one of them have negotiated this big a deal before."

Garzini said he plans a complete - public - presentation to the council in mid to late October, on how to move to implement the already unanimously approved memorandum of understanding with Juniper Ridge Partners, "preceded by a three-page outline of all the key components."

"I'm looking at everything - nothing is sacred ground," Garzini said. That includes possibly reducing the UGB expansion, reviewing the financial arrangement and the "firewall between the (city's) general fund and the development."

"It's either got to go forward or go away," he said - and the latter is not in the cards, saying the "proposal has a lot of attractive components."

"I think it's doable and can become more popular with more information and some tweaking," Garzini said. "There's no doubt it's going to need some tweaking. A lot of things people have questions about, so (do) I."

Might the cooling real estate market bring a slowdown in the project anyway? "Yes and no," Garzini said. "This is contemplated to be a long-, long-, long-term agreement. ... This agreement has to contemplate a 30-year horizon and make sense."

He pointed to the decade-plus saga of Old Mill District developer Bill Smith, who fought for years to win approval of the zone changes that made the 200-acre riverside mixed-use project happen - and years more turning the "barren" land into what it is today, "a really great asset."

At Juniper Ridge, "we have 500 acres already approved," Garzini said. "How much beyond 500, if any, is an appropriate amount, what is an appropriate mix" is up for discussion - except that he does not buy the idea that all 500 acres should be "pure industrial."

"What people are missing is, pure industrial any more, in today's world, is contrary to most public policy," especially if a university can be sited there, Garzini said.

"I want to bring the city and the community closer together" on an acceptable path for Juniper Ridge, Garzini said, although he added: "You never make any progress unless you're willing to fail."

After a long, busy day of meetings, Garzini said, "I've been joking that I worked in three places twice, but this is the first time I've worked in one place three times."

Whether the third time will be a charm is largely - but surely not completely - in his hands.

Timothy said...

It looks like they're moving dirt around at the Mercado site. Is that thing going to happen or not? I just can't imagine that it's a good time to build that thing.

Anonymous said...

"Any person affected by a decision of a governing body of a public body may commence a suit in the circuit court for the county in which the governing body ordinarily meets, for the purpose of requiring compliance with, or the prevention of violations of ORS 192.610 to 192.690...", but that "Any suit brought under subsection (2) of this section must be commenced within 60 days following the date that the decision becomes public record."

*

Ok, lets play this rhetorical game. Let's say you 'sue', you have to pa a lot of money to file the lawsuit, and you'll lose, because its a rigged game. When you lose you pay all attorney costs and court costs. Generally you can look at $50k/bill for trial, and $10k/mo while everyone is postponing the trial.

The reason that nobody has filed a lawsuit, is that we don't have an attorney on our side that will work pro-bono, and there is NO pool of citizens to pay the legal cost when we lose. Then you file an appeal for more money, go to Salem and you'll most likely win, but that's another $100k, and you have to have a pro-bono attorney over there.

As someone WHO has sued city,county, many times in Oregon, let me tell you a little secret. It's almost impossible to hire an attornety to sue the city! Why?? Because this is where their biz comes from, and also if you sue the city for this issue, and issue that makes money for Sebastian & Hollern, you have indirectly fucked every rich developer in Bend, thus an attorney that does this has fucked his biz forever.

Oh, I know perhaps your proposing, you just file a complaint, and walk in the court house without an attorney?? Perpare to get fucked, the county-judge will fuck you in the ass if you don't have your own attorney.

In summary the system should work, but doesn't work. Solution? RECALL THE MOTHER FUCKING CITY COUNCIL. Send GARZINI-KURATEK siamese twins packing.

Anonymous said...

I was going to post this yesterday but seemed to have forgotten. Next time our fine city council breaks the law, let's file suit within 60 days and make it very public. Here's the scoop:

Re: Broken open meeting laws

The most egregious example is the Les Schwab deal.

*

your right, solution. Take it public, put up a blog, call it 'executive session watch', and every time they do this embarrass them. The fact whenever there is city business, there should be a city-attorney present, that is where the law is administered. In bend the city-attorney seems to be out to lunch intellectually.

The dec06 executive-session where they gave Juniper-Ridge to Les Schwab is a BIG-DEAL, you must stay on it, ... make it public, and post info to all news source in Bend.

Nobody in this crappy little fucking desert town gives a fuck about anything to pony up the money for a lawsuit against the city. Never heard of "dont' fight city hall'. This town is a mob town, ran by the mob, and they got it all the court, city, cops, ... all on the payroll. The only fucking thing the little 'surplus population' has going for itself is 'free speech'.

The Natives Are Restless--- said...

Beautiful, simply beautiful. The kind words about our dear Randy, green building and the elk, Asshole Rim, etc... Are you a female, and if so, will you marry me?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

This on top of a Bulletin story this weekend that outside banks are encroaching on the business of the locals.

This has reached hysteria levels. I wonder if some of these places have yet to make a dime. The way overdone Umpqua branch downtown has probably never made a cent. Inconvenient as hell, no parking, some a feng shui, I'm OK - You're OK interior... Geez. So insane.

Duncan McGeary said...

I see it as a way that Cascade is trying to blame other factors, competition, for their own faults.

Anonymous said...

More proof that in Bend you are what you eat. Randy Sebastian to open his own downtown restaurant.

The story goes he's getting out of real estate and getting into some real morsels that 9 out of 10 cali tourists want.

It will be called 'Morsels', and it will be located at the present Merenda site.

Anonymous said...

Randy Sebastian to buy Deschutes Brewpub from Gary Fish who is retiring.

Tonight monday night 'happy randy' is introducing his new libation , which he calls a "Refreshment".

Mr. Sebastian the new owner of Deschutes said his new line of "Refreshments" will be popular on 24 of Bends Golf Courses.

Anonymous said...

too funny, I have been over at portlandhousing.blogspot when I could be learning from you guys and the entertainment value is priceless..

one piece of input from Portland...how do you call the developers on their lies...I have been following the South Waterfront (SoWa or SoWhat) development specifically the John Ross. They are only 55% sold but keep stating over 80% sold. How many other developers are stating these lies and at what point does the bank tell them to cut prices and sell!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

It looks like they're moving dirt around at the Mercado site. Is that thing going to happen or not? I just can't imagine that it's a good time to build that thing.

Sounds like a loan officer from the Crocodile Dundee Bank of Australia is coming by to make sure they ain't funding the Brooklyn Bridge....

Throw another pimp on the barby, you RE-Ho bitches....

BENDBB said...

The kind words about our dear Randy, green building and the elk, Asshole Rim, etc... Are you a beer drinking stinky MILM?, and if so, will you marry me?

Anonymous said...

BULL says all tourists still coming to shitty little Bend, in spite of economy having gone to shit, and $6/gal gas, ...

U.S. Tourism Forecast Upbeat Despite Economic Woes

October 29, 2007
Jeff McDonald -- The Bulletin, Bend, Ore.


National concerns about a housing slowdown and possible recession, coupled with higher costs of travel, won't slow tourism in 2008, according to a Travel Industry Association forecast delivered last week.

"There are many stresses in the U.S. economy, but the consumer is still interested in travel," said Suzanne Cook, senior vice president of research for Washington, D.C.-based TIA. "We don't expect the consumer to retrench or the economy to go into recession." Leisure travel, which has increased by 19 percent since 2000, will climb to 1.6 billion trips in 2008, a 1.5 percent increase over 2007, Cook said. Business travel, which peaked in 1997, is expected to be flat, she said.

Travel is a major part of Central Oregon's economy, accounting for an estimated $498 million a year in economic impact.

The Central Oregon Visitors Association projects that the region could see 2 percent to 4 percent growth in room-tax revenue in 2008. But COVA's president and CEO, Alana Audette, is concerned that a national recession could cut into those gains.

Nationwide, travel costs -- including hotel, airfare and car rentals -- increased this year and oil costs continued to soar, Cook said.

Annual U.S. travel spending is expected to reach $778.2 billion in 2008, a 5.2 percent increase from 2007, Cook said.

Next year, average daily room rates at hotels across the nation also are expected to increase by 5 percent to 6 percent, she said.

"Consumers will face higher prices, but at this point there's not much evidence that it will negatively affect things," Cook said. "Prices will increase within the range of consumers being able to pay for it." The forecast signals an increasingly competitive marketplace for Central Oregon's tourism industry, which saw its best month ever in August, COVA's Audette said.

More people are being cautious about their travel plans, waiting to book until they see how the national economy looks in 2008, she said.

"If people feel hesitant about their income, travel is the first place they step back from," Audette said. "We have to be very careful and precise in our marketing efforts to target the people who will choose Central Oregon as their first choice in their travel destinations." The prospect of a slowing economy has shortened the booking window at Mt. Bachelor Village Resort near Bend, which has seen fewer advance reservations this year for 2008 than it did a year ago for 2007, said Diane Wilcox, general manager.

"Absolutely, we're seeing more hesitation in booking," Wilcox said. "It started in the summer when people were booking with a lot shorter notice. I attribute it to more availability of lodging in Bend. People know that they don't have to book as far out as they used to." Wilcox projected "flat growth" for 2008 with shorter stays and less spending than in 2007.
Story Tools

Source: Copyright (c) 2007, The Bulletin, Bend, Ore. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

Anonymous said...

"Absolutely, we're seeing more hesitation in booking," Wilcox said. "It started in the summer when people were booking with a lot shorter notice. I attribute it to more availability of lodging in Bend. People know that they don't have to book as far out as they used to." Wilcox projected "flat growth" for 2008 with shorter stays and less spending than in 2007.
Story Tools

Source: Copyright (c) 2007, The Bulletin, Bend, Ore. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services.

Anonymous said...

I have managed to smuggle a copy of the Holz-Tek Master Plan via a Mind-Meld with a Randy Helper Chimp in the Holz-Tek command bunker:

Remember tonight at Deschutes Monday happy hour. Duncan is paying, and BendBB is entertaining.

Timothy said...

I just love the phrase "flat growth."

Anonymous said...

Timothy said...

I just love the phrase "flat growth."



I love Bend, when I first moved here BENDBB called it 'limp cock', now he calls it 'flat growth'.

My how Times Change.

Anonymous said...

"While arrests and convictions are steadily on the rise, profits are to be made - profits from crime. Get in on the ground floor of this booming industry now!"[1] - mom garzini

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I just love the phrase "flat growth."

Could be worse...


Someone came up with the term "negative growth" because the word "shrinking" seemed too mundane. No matter. Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) is very close to shrinking and negative growth here, in its home market.

Anonymous said...

OH SHIT, The La Rouchies have discovered Oregon.

Blackwater Nazis Aim Homeward: Kristallnacht in Oregon?
by Anton Chaitkin

Ron Garzini is running for sheriff of Deschutes County, OR., by trying to incite mob anger against illegal immigrants. The Washington Post's Oct. 12 profile of the Republican nominee focussed on the weird tattoo on his arm: the logo of crusaders for an Armageddon religious war, showing a colonial American flag and an Israeli flag, joined by a cross. Ahlemann hurriedly convened a press conference on Oct. 15 to warn of illegal Hispanic immigrants as a crime threat—and to show off his tattoo. [[Ahlemann aimed his vitriol at the incumbent sheriff, for his refusal to join the anti-immigrant hysteria.]]

Half a world away, mercenaries gone murderous-wild in Iraqi streets provoked the government there to demand that the firm Blackwater USA be expelled from Iraq. The Blackwater scandal ripped through Congress, as Washington was haunted by the specter of global warfare to be run by fascist private agencies.

This is the agenda of British System ├╝ber-financiers Felix Rohatyn and George Shultz, as implemented by Dick Cheney's and Donald Rumsfeld's "Revolution in Military Affairs."

The Rohatyn Center for International Affairs (Middlebury College, Vt.) ran an October 2004 conference on "Privatization of National Security," where, in partnership with Bush Administration architect, George P. Shultz, Rohatyn advocated a future world of private wars modeled explicitly on the feudal dark ages and the conquests of the British East India Company.

That future is now, and here at home.

Besides deploying its own mercenaries, Blackwater also trains American law enforcement personnel at all government levels. The Blackwater gang is reaching for power in domestic law enforcement, and the privatized police functions would be amalgamated with anti-immigrant vigilante mobs.

EIR has established that the Greg Ahlemann incitement-candidacy is part of an international theocratic, fascist underground, connecting the Blackwater corporate leadership to armageddonist Protestant and Catholic operatives.

Some global centers of this movement are just outside Washington in Northern Oregon: Christendom College (Front Royal), a political offshoot of Francisco Franco's Spanish fascism; Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia's St. Catherine of Siena Catholic parish (Falls Church); and Charles Colson's Prison Fellowship Ministries (headquartered east of the Loudoun County seat of Leesburg).

"Spooks" from these precincts aim to steer behind them crowds of Americans demoralized by the gathering storm of economic collapse.
Vigilantes and Mercenaries

Through the night of Oct. 17, over 1,000 pro- and anti-immigrant activists clashed at the meeting of the Board of Supervisors of Deschutes County, Or. At 2:30 the next morning, the Prince William Supervisors voted 8-0 to set up a Criminal Alien Unit of the county police, and to deny certain public services to illegal aliens. The illegals would be flushed out by police demanding proof of citizenship during routine traffic stops and other interactions.

These scenes evoke 1930s Germany; Kristallnacht, the night Hitler's stormtroopers broke windows of Jews scapegoated in the Great Depression disaster; and the Gestapo, demanding, "Where are your papers?"

The Prince William ordinance was co-drafted by a vigilante organization known as "Help Save Oregon," with sub-sets Help Save Manassas, Save Herndon, and Save Loudoun. This is the Oregon public face of the movement called the Minutemen, which deploys vigilantes to the Mexican border. The "Help Save" website runs appeals for contributions directly to the Minutemen.

Oregon Minutemen chairman George Taplin was manning the "Help Save" booth on Oct. 7 at the Sterling Fest in Sterling Park, Va. He ran the Help Save/Minutemen movement's anti-immigrant agitation in Herndon, Va., and led their incursion into Loudoun County in January 2007. The vigilantes are one deployment of the national anti-immigrant movement, whose leaders include Congressman Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.) and fascist Harvard professor Samuel Huntington, of "Clash of Civilizations" infamy.

A bill was introduced in 2006 into the U.S. House of Representatives (H.R. 6015) for the government to hire 5,000 to 8,000 mercenaries to patrol the border with Mexico, and to have private contractors such as Blackwater USA take over the training of the U.S. Border Patrol. Cosponsors included Reps. Tancredo, Eric Cantor (R-Va.), and Roy Blunt (R-Mo.). The bill's prime sponsor, Mike Rogers (R-Ala.), had previously brought Blackwater president Gary Jackson to Congress to speak on how Blackwater could privatize Border Patrol functions.

Blackwater was set up in 1996 by Michigan billionaire Erik Prince. Guided by his religious-political shepherd Charles Colson, Prince has bound himself and his company to impose a Dark Ages in social and political life, a return to Inquisition rule, crusaders, and mercenary wars. In 2001, Prince gave $500,000 to Colson's Prison Fellowship, through the Prince family's tax-exempt Freiheit Foundation.

Infamous as a convicted Watergate conspirator, Colson later forged an alliance of "evangelicals" with far-right Catholics. Colson and his cohorts published in November 1996 a diatribe entitled "The End of Democracy?," calling for theocratic Christians to overthrow the no-longer-legitimate U.S. constitutional "regime." A convert to Catholicism, Prince has also funded the pro-Franco Legion of Christ.

Blackwater's Chief Operating Officer and General Counsel is Joseph Schmitz, formerly Pentagon Inspector General under Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, and a leading operative of the underground theocracy. Schmitz's father, the late California far-right Congressman John G. Schmitz, converted his aide Warren Carroll to Catholicism, and set him on the path to his intrigues in Spain with pro-Franco circles. This led to Carroll and the William F. Buckley family founding Christendom College, an agitational center, since sponsored by the Schmitzes and funded by Blackwater's Erik Prince.

Blackwater has put into Iraq hundreds of mercenaries formerly in the security services of Chile's Augusto Pinochet, the dictator whose death squads were whitewashed by Pinochet public relations chief William F. Buckley and his friends at Christendom.
Target: Oregon

Charles Colson's headquarters is just up the street from the Christian Fellowship Church in Ashburn, a congregation grown gigantic under its pastor James (Jay) Ahlemann, the father of Greg Ahlemann. Rev. Ahlemann is the chief funder of his son's sheriff campaign.

The senior Ahlemann is a disciple of political-religion manager James Dobson, whose Family Research Council was financially organized by the father of Erik Prince, with the young Erik Prince as an intern. In 1998 Rev. Ahlemann led a mob-incitement against the building in Loudoun County of a Muslim academy. Anti-Muslim leaflets were passed through the Ahlemann church from the Federation for American Immigration Reform, founded by apocalyptic race-warrior William Paddock. Ahlemann had a local action arm called Concerned About Loudoun's Future, run by Sandra Elam—a fanatic who bases herself in Scalia's St. Catherine of Siena parish, a center for Inquisition Catholics like the Legionnaires of Christ. The Ahlemann-Elam group threatened to purge county officials who voted to allow the Muslim school's construction.

Rev. Ahlemann was later asked to leave his church for reasons which are unclear. At Dobson's request, he went out for a time to run the Pasadena, Calif. church which Dobson had earlier led. Rev. Ahlemann now runs Nazi-like anti-immigrant organizing through a network of smaller congregations in Oregon's Fauquier, Prince William, and Loudoun counties, and television and radio stations he owns in the Winchester-Warrenton-Front Royal area.

It was in the vacuum of the dispirited local Republican Party, that a rightist clique recently staged a little coup to make Greg Ahlemann, a loose-cannon former patrol officer, the party's sheriff nominee.

At his Oct. 15 press conference, Ahlemann blustered about the "alien" crime threat, but could not produce even a guess about the numbers of illegal immigrants, or cite any instances of criminal activity. Asked if he works with the Minutemen, Ahlemann lied by indirection: no, he said, only with Save Loudoun—the Minutemen's local public face. He acknowledged that there is a deep crisis in the housing market collapse. To make up for tax revenues that will be lost, he promised to slash the budget for public services. But an economic crisis can be useful politically, to those whipping up the masses against the Hispanic scapegoats.
Crossing the Line

Harvard's Samuel Huntington is lead strategist for
ethe anti-immigrant crusade, the philosopher alike for Blackwater and the border vigilantes, made famous by his 1996 book, The Clash of Civilizations, promoting anti-Islamic world war as inevitable.

Huntington explained in his 2004 book Who Are We? The Challenges to America's National Identity, what his movement would do in an economic crisis: "The large and continuing influx of Hispanics threatens the pre-eminence of white Anglo-Saxon Protestant culture and the place of English as the only national language. White nativist movements are a possible and plausible response to these trends, and in situations of serious economic downturn and hardship they could be highly probable...." He assured his readers that the "new breed of white racial advocate" is "cultured, intelligent, and often possessing impressive degrees from ... premier colleges"—perhaps not a precise depiction of the knuckle-dragger sheriff candidate.

Blackwater USA's preferred hell-world of limitless mercenary wars was prefigured in Huntington's 1957 The Soldier and the State, attacking the concept of the republic's military: "The professional army ... is far more reliable than the political army which fights well only while sustained by a higher purpose.... The supreme military virtue is obedience." He lauded the Korean War, where the American soldier "fought solely and simply because he was ordered to fight it and .... he developed a supreme indifference to the political goals of the war...."

Now, when a political clique employs both "indifferent" Blackwater troopers, who kill for effect in Baghdad, and religious fanatics promoting racial hatred in an emerging political-economic crisis, it is well to be warned that a fundamental danger line has been crossed.

Anonymous said...

IHTBYB,

Given that everyone and their agrees that BENDBB is a censoring Napoleonic dip shit, why don't you just remove his site from your blog?

Then he'll become bulletin-board non-grata, and all will be forgotten.

Anonymous said...

Someone came up with the term "flaccid cock" because the word "shrinking penis" seemed too mundane. No matter. - bendbb

Timothy said...

http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/29/markets/distressed_debt/index.htm?cnn=yes&ref=patrick.net

Vultures waiting to buy mortgage debt.

But not yet. In other words, everyone knows it's going to keep going down. NO ONE is in a hurry to buy it. Plenty of bargains later. No need to rush.

Anonymous said...

Ron Garzini used city of Steward, Alaska money to build the largest privately owned prison in the State. His next job was Director of the Alaska Energy Authority, a job with a huge budget whose job was to install high-voltage towers through-out the Kenai Penninsula. This is BIG SHIT, how come its not on his resume.

When Mr. Garzini became executive director of AEA on July
6, 1992, these four applications were already on file for grants
from the Fund:

Anonymous said...

Duncans is NOT all wrong on his Garzini as the mob play. There's a book from Alaska called "fire & ice", that talks about how in Anchorage under a new mayor the cops think they don't have a new boss. Garzini suggesting showing them who is boss, they take the cops 4day-10hr week away, and put them all on five-8's for two years, after that the cops figure out who is boss.

Prisons, Cops, Energy; Garzini was one of the MOST influential players in Alaska politics. Why did he move to Central Oregon?

Anonymous said...

Walmart, Prison, JR, and Muzzling Andy; Who pay's $30M for Walmart SuperCenter @ Cooley&Hwy97?

BEND, ORE.- TRAFFIC ISSUES KEEP WAL-MART ‘ROUND THE BEND

Ron Garzini, special project manager, said the delay until “early 2008” is due to an Oregon Department of Transportation letter. The letter indicated that any building beyond the new Les Schwab headquarters won’t be allowed until a fix is identified for the traffic-clogged intersection at Highway 97 and Cooley Road - and a funding strategy is in place.




The city (http://www.ci.bend.or.us) has hired an engineering team that includes CH2MHill to come up with solutions for the intersection and its surroundings, which also have delayed Wal-Mart’s efforts to build a Bend Supercenter near the intersection (much to the joy of its opponents).

An early estimate of the cost of that intersection’s long-term fix: $15 million to $30 million.

“Until estimates and engineering are firm and funds are identified, and an agreement is approved by ODOT, it would be premature to go further with a Juniper Ridge development agreement,” Garzini said.

“Once the planning for the intersection is complete, work plans are complete, risk assessments are complete and funds are identified, a development plan will be brought forward which matches those documents,” said Garzini, a former assistant and interim city manager called in by now-fired City Manager Andy Anderson to help the project through some rough waters.

But ODOT spokesman Peter Murphy said it’s not accurate to say the project is stalled due to the state’s concerns.

“We didn’t say No,’” Murphy said. “What we said are, Those are the steps that we need to take.’”

In the letter, dated last Thursday, ODOT Region 4 Manager Bob Bryant pointed to language in the current draft “memorandum of understanding” (MOU) between the city and state agency.

The draft language says ODOT won’t support rezoning any more land at Juniper Ridge within the current urban growth boundary, or to rezone any additional Juniper Ridge acreage brought into the UGB without a “mid-term improvement project with funding obligation by the city” and “a long-term transportation improvement plan and funding agreement.”

“It’s not like we haven’t been working on this for some time now,” Bryant told KTVZ.COM. “We’ve had a lot of sessions.” At the request of councilors, Bryant said, “I wrote a very brief summary that sets out the basic premises that underlies all of the work we’ve done.”

“Our concern (was) they were moving forward with a development agreement that we had not had an opportunity to review,” Bryant said. “I had no idea what language was in there regarding transportation.”

“I clearly understand the city’s goals and interest in wanting to bring more area into zoning that would be available for development,” the ODOT official said.

“At the same time, with the traffic impacts we’re talking about, at an intersection that’s already a challenge, we just felt it was important that we are able to provide the council with good information to make informed decisions,” Bryant said. “We’re still putting information together, on what some of those answers will look like.”

The delay in the deal with Juniper Ridge Partners came just hours before the kickoff meeting of the city’s new “97/Cooley Steering Committee,” which will try to come up with an acceptable path forward with at least some short-term solutions for the intersection.

The city’s decision pleased, but came as no surprise to Oran Teater, one of several former mayors involved in an effort to slow down and shift the Juniper Ridge plans back toward an emphasis on industrial land (http://www.dojuniperridgeright.com).

“They needed to do that, to bring things back to reality,” Teater told KTVZ.COM.

That (ODOT letter) shouldn’t be a surprise to anybody,” Teater said. “It’s surprising to me they would have thought they could get a development agreement put together without ODOT’s sign-off - that’s crazy.”

“The reality is, the council has put the city at risk, and if you’d gone forward with this, you’d have put yourself in a huge financial bind,” said Teater, whose group turned in petitions with hundreds of signatures from citizens seeking a slower, phased approach.

“The way this thing should have come down is with a master plan first and the city have the master plan approved just like any other developer,” he said. “Get the CC&Rs in place, the design reviews in place - then if you need a master planner, go get one. The city did this sort of bass-ackwards.”

Those views were echoed by Tim Knopp, a former state legislator and executive vice president of the Central Oregon Builders Association.

“We’ve heard that (ODOT message) was coming for six months,” Knopp said.

“We just want (the city) to get on the right track, supported by the community,” he said.

“I think the city council needs to think long and hard about funding these transportation improvements,” Knopp added.

“We want to see Juniper Ridge developed and industrial land become available, as well as mixed use,” he said. “We just want it to be done right.”

Teater also said he did not believe the Juniper Ridge controversy played much of a role in last week’s council decision to fire Anderson.

“These guys have so micromanaged this thing, between (Bill) Friedman, (Jim) Clinton and Mark Capell this year, I don’t think Andy’s had a chance to say boo on this,” Teater said, adding that Anderson was rendered “ineffective because he was muzzled by the council.”

Anonymous said...

http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/29/markets/distressed_debt/index.htm?cnn=yes&ref=patrick.net

Vultures waiting to buy mortgage debt.

*

Timmy, The vultures may be on the lines, but the carrion has already been scraped clean. If & when there is some paper that has meat on the bone, then and only then will you see the lazy vultures venture from the power lines.

A vast majority of todays paper, held by bank, money-market, governments, ... is ALL backed by MTG, and most of it is rated 'AAA', but 'BBB' at best which ABX lists at 28 cents on the dollar, but there is NO buyer.

Even vultures don't try to catch falling knife that has no meat on it, its going to take years to scrounge through the corpses to find value.

Anonymous said...

The letter indicated that any building beyond the new Les Schwab headquarters won’t be allowed until a fix is identified for the traffic-clogged intersection at Highway 97 and Cooley Road - and a funding strategy is in place.

*

So when does the public get to see the FUCKING deal that the CUNTS running city hall made with Brogman in secret?

Les Schwab gave the city one hour to accept the deal, packaged by Kuratek. To date nobody outside of the secret inner 'private development team ( council )' has see the MOU's.

The current story is JR is dead, but Les Schwab building on JR is alive, thus everything is actually moving ahead @ JR as planned. The problem is NOBODY in this city knows what the plan is.

Typical Garzini methodology, build it first, then issue mea-culpas, and leave, and come back later and do it again.

Anonymous said...

The below is average, for every home 'for sale' there are ten sitting empty. YOU know its worse in Bend, its probably 20-50 empty for every home for sale. We know that at the current for sale there is a 3-5 yr inventory. Now multiply that by 10+. You get the picture?

***

Pent Up Housing Supply

Recent data shows U.S. Home Vacancies Rise to New Record.

A record 17.9 million U.S. homes stood empty in the third quarter as lenders took possession of a growing number of properties in foreclosure.

The figure is a 7.8 percent gain from a year ago, when 16.6 million properties were vacant, the U.S. Census Bureau said in a report today. About 2.07 million empty homes were for sale, compared with 1.94 million a year earlier, the report said.

New foreclosures have risen to a record, led by defaults in adjustable-rate loans to people with tainted or limited credit histories, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Home- price declines and tougher lending standards are making it difficult for owners who fall behind in mortgage payments to sell or refinance into better loans.

The U.S. homeownership rate fell for the fourth consecutive quarter to 68.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, from 68.9 percent a year ago, the report said.

Let's stop right there. Did you catch it?

* A record 17.9 million U.S. homes stood empty in the third quarter.
* A mere 2.07 million empty homes were for sale.

Let's do the math.
There are 15.83 million vacant homes just sitting there. How long can that last?

That is a huge potential supply of homes that for some reason or other is not listed yet. I suspect many of those are REOs (real estate owned ) by banks and mortgage companies like Countrywide. Every passing month those REOs sit on the books waiting for higher prices is lost property taxes, upkeep costs, and balance sheet impairment.

Anonymous said...

Let's play a numbers game here. We know there are about 2k home for sales in Bend, and its 10X empty. Bends sub-prime is about 25%, thus 5k homes are going to foreclose in the next few years, that MORE home that are currently for-sale and NOT selling. What is selling? 200/mo maybe?
***
U.S. Home Vacancies Rise to Record on Foreclosures (Update2)

By Kathleen M. Howley

Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- A record 17.9 million U.S. homes stood empty in the third quarter as lenders took possession of a growing number of properties in foreclosure.

The figure is a 7.8 percent gain from a year ago, when 16.6 million properties were vacant, the U.S. Census Bureau said in a report today. About 2.07 million empty homes were for sale, compared with 1.94 million a year earlier, the report said.

New foreclosures have risen to a record, led by defaults in adjustable-rate loans to people with tainted or limited credit histories, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Home- price declines and tougher lending standards are making it difficult for owners who fall behind in mortgage payments to sell or refinance into better loans.

The U.S. homeownership rate fell for the fourth consecutive quarter to 68.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, from 68.9 percent a year ago, the report said.

U.S. home prices probably will fall 2 percent this year, Thomas Lund, an executive vice president at Washington-based Fannie Mae, the largest U.S. mortgage buyer, said last week in a panel discussion at a Mortgage Bankers Association convention in Boston.

Adjustable-rate mortgages to subprime borrowers account for 7.3 percent of all home loans and 44 percent of all new foreclosures, according to the Washington-based Mortgage Bankers group. The 15 percent of all mortgages that are prime adjustable-rate loans, granted to borrowers with good credit, represents 15 percent of new foreclosures.

Lenders began the process of seizing properties on 0.65 percent of U.S. mortgages in the second quarter, a record in a 35-year-old study, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a Sept. 6 report. The percentage of subprime borrowers making late payments increased to 14.82, a five-year high, from 13.77.

Anonymous said...

Wall Street wants to put together a super-fund, to package all the toxic-paper and sell it for face-value, trouble is NOBODY in on WS wants to buy the shit. Thus you put a story on CNN, MONEY, US-TODAY about new MUTUAL-VULTURE funds and suckers BUY, that way the super-fund has buyer. That is the theory. The QUESTION IS? How many morons in the public still have money? To waste on a fund that is know to be worth 10cents/dollar? Yet, they want to SELL for face value. BUY PUTS ON THESE FUNDS VULTURES.
***
Vultures eyeing mortgage corpse
Opportunistic investors have raised huge sums to buy mortgage-backed debt, but are not yet swooping down - a sign the beleaguered securities have further to fall.
By Grace Wong, CNNMoney.com staff writer
October 30 2007: 5:54 AM EDT

LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- Since the subprime crisis erupted earlier this year, vulture investors looking for bargains have been circling battered securities backed by mortgages.

But the feeding has not yet begun in earnest - and that's not a good sign for the housing and credit markets.
vultures.03.jpg
Vulture investors can be "useful" for markets, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has said.

While opportunistic investors may be reviled by some, their presence is often an indication that a beaten down market has reached a bottom. The longer they stay away, the more likely it is that turmoil will roil the market.

"[Distressed debt investors] are a good thing for the market - they're a new force for providing liquidity," said Mark Adelson, an independent mortgage securities analyst.

For sure, vulture investors are getting ready to strike. Fundraising in the first nine months of the year hit a record $6.6 billion, according to London-based Private Equity Intelligence.

The research firm doesn't break down how much of that total is directed at risky mortgage-related debt, but several high-profile investors are eyeing the sector. The market chattered last month about a new $2 billion fund by Allianz's (Charts) Pacific Investment Management Co. Distressed debt investor TCW Group and hedge-fund firm Marathon Asset Management also have been said to be making moves in the sector.

The mortgage meltdown has sent many investors fleeing from risky mortgage bets like subprime-backed securities and collateralized debt obligations, which are pools of bonds sold off in slices of varying credit risk. It has also brought out vulture investors who, as their name suggests, smell an opportunity.

These investors face the difficult task of determining when prices for the distressed securities have hit a bottom. Until they're sure they're getting a bargain, they're likely to hold back on investing their money.

"It's not that no one's going to want to touch [subprime securities]. The question is at what price," said Adelson, who used to head structured finance research at Nomura Securities.
Wall Street superfund: Not so super

But the securities are hard to value, and no one knows if things are going to get worse. Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. (Charts, Fortune 500) said last week that it took a $7.9 billion loss on mortgage-related assets in the third quarter. That was about $3.4 billion higher than the writedown the bank had projected a little more than two weeks earlier.

Furthermore, a recently created "superfund" designed to buy bonds and other debt backed by home loans could deter distressed investors from entering the market.

Some critics, including former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, have warned that the fund could do more harm than good by propping up prices.

"If you intervene in the system, the vultures stay away," Greenspan said in a recent interview with Emerging Markets Magazine. "The vultures sometimes are very useful."

That some players are starting to sniff around the mortgage sector is a good sign that the market may be starting to stabilize.

Still, the murky economic outlook has left some experts anticipating a further drop off in prices of mortgage-backed securities. And there are signs the housing woes could get worse. For example, analysts are bracing for a massive wave of mortgages to reset to higher interest rates and trigger another wave of delinquencies.

The uncertainty leaves distressed debt investors with the tricky task of "catching a falling knife," said Daniel Alpert, a partner at New York-based boutique investment bank Westwood Capital, which specializes in mortgage and related securities.

"You could argue this is a good time to go in," Alpert said. "But my view is that a good portion of the market thinks the knife hasn't even started to plummet yet." Top of page

Anonymous said...


The below is the REAL story. The news ain't out, and the knife hasn't even been released yet.

The uncertainty leaves distressed debt investors with the tricky task of "catching a falling knife," said Daniel Alpert, a partner at New York-based boutique investment bank Westwood Capital, which specializes in mortgage and related securities.

"You could argue this is a good time to go in," Alpert said. "But my view is that a good portion of the market thinks the knife hasn't even started to plummet yet."

Anonymous said...

Garzini's Mantra for 20+ years has been Run you city like a business. In Seward using city money he built the largest prison in Alaska.

Seward got into the prison business, today the legacy of Garzini's master plan is a horrible MESS. This is why this guy constantly moves on ever six months.

Let's hope that somehow Bend Chamber of Commerce forces ALL MOU's to date that city-council did in secret over the past three years to come public by turkey-day, so the air can be cleaned. That way by new-year Bend can start anew, with NO more executive sessions. No more secret deals, and no more 'run a city like business' con-jobs that are only meant to create mega-projects for construction firms.

Anonymous said...

U.S. Consumer Confidence Fell More Than Forecast (Update2)

By Shobhana Chandra

Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer confidence fell more than forecast in October, a sign Americans are growing concerned about falling home values, rising fuel bills and dimmer job prospects.

The Conference Board's index of confidence declined to 95.6, the lowest since October 2005, from a revised 99.5 the prior month, the New York-based group said today. A separate report showed declines in property values accelerated in August.

The confidence report raises concern consumers will put a brake on spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. The Federal Reserve is forecast to cut interest rates tomorrow to prevent the deepening housing recession from triggering a broader economic decline, economists said.

``Sentiment is taking the next step down,'' said Carl Riccadonna, an economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York. ``Housing is clearly the root of the problem. If consumer spending falls apart, the Fed will have much bigger problems to contend with.''

Consumer confidence was forecast to drop to 99, from an originally reported reading of 99.8 for September, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 70 economists. Projections ranged from 95 to 102.

The 10-year Treasury note rose, the dollar pared gains and stock prices fell following the report. The Down Jones Industrial Average dropped 44 points to 13,825 at 10:23 a.m. in New York.

Home Prices Drop

The Conference Board report followed figures from S&P/Case- Shiller that showed home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas fell from a year earlier for an eighth straight month in August. Values dropped 4.4 percent from a year earlier, the most since records began in 2001.

Defaults by subprime mortgage borrowers and rising foreclosures will force more homes into the market, pushing down property values even more. That'll make it harder for owners to tap home equity for extra cash to spend on goods and services.

The Conference Board's measure of present conditions dropped to 118.8 from 121.1 the prior month. The gauge of expectations for the next six months decreased to 80.1 from 85.

Compared with other sentiment gauges, the Conference Board's index tends to be more influenced by attitudes about the state of the labor market, economists said.

Job Prospects

Today's report showed the share of consumers who said jobs are plentiful fell to 24.1 percent in October from 25.6 percent the prior month. The proportion of people who said jobs are hard to get rose to 22.6 percent from 22.4 percent. The 1.5-point difference is the smallest since December 2005.

The proportion of people who expect their incomes to rise over the next six months fell and the share expecting more jobs increased.

The Labor Department's employment report later this week may show payrolls rose by 80,000 in October, fewer than the prior month, according to a Bloomberg survey. Job gains so far have prevented spending from faltering even as housing has slumped. A softening labor market raises questions about whether this support will be sustained, economists said.

The International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS Securities LLC last week reduced their October chain-store sales forecast as merchants dropped prices to attract buyers.

The group now estimates sales rose 2 percent, down from a prior forecast of 2.5 percent. Target Corp. last week lowered its October sales forecast and Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world's largest retailer, cut prices on 15,000 items for the holidays.

Not 'Robust'

``It's not a very robust time for apparel,'' Mackey McDonald, chief executive officer of VF Corp., the maker of Lee jeans and Nautica sportswear, said in an Oct. 19 interview. Consumers ``are more selective. There is a lot of pressure on their disposable income, but at the same time, they are very resilient.''

Rising prices for food and home-heating fuel combined with the decline in property values may already be prompting consumers to turn more frugal.

``The outlook for sales heading into the holiday season looks gloomier than a year ago,'' said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York. ``With the surge in oil prices likely to soon push up gasoline and home-heating oil prices, more consumers are likely to be forced to curb their holiday shopping.''

Anonymous said...

Randy's running TV commercials in the Portland market, imploring us to "Just say Yes." Ain't never seen THAT before!
You know, JLS Homes hasn't run their usual Sunday Oregonian ads lately. They might be a BK candidate. Last thing they were doing was offering 6 months no payments. I couldn't help but think - in today's market: JLS homes...jails homes... jails...homes...

Timothy said...

>>A vast majority of todays paper, held by bank, money-market, governments, ... is ALL backed by MTG, and most of it is rated 'AAA', but 'BBB' at best which ABX lists at 28 cents on the dollar, but there is NO buyer.

There will be some idiots who sell good assets and buy crap because some con artist promises crazy returns.

But you're right. No one wants AAA anymore. Who wants to buy something at AAA prices when Moody's can tell you tomorrow you own junk?

Anonymous said...

Debtors Prisons are coming,

The call centers @ Juniper-Ridge will need educated 'detainees' to handle the private business.

Thus the need for the University @ Juniper-Ridge, the question is will the non-detainee public be allowed to access the campus??

The justification for the 'emergency' is radical Islam, and undocumented Mexicans, but once the prison is running, 'Debtors' will be targeted.

Bend will become very competitive in spite of its location.

Anonymous said...

Briefly, the council blatantly broke ORS 192.640 by meeting without 24 hours notice and not ratifying it as an actual emergency. - bruce

*

We have in Bend in a 'state of emergency' for the past three years. That's why individual meetings don't need to declare an 'emergency' for individual executive sessions.

Anonymous said...

"Randy's running TV commercials in the Portland market"

Maybe that is because all the TV sets in Bend are turned off because all those new homes are vacant.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Seems a local Realtor cannot sell her house herself, so she went into league with the notorious MyLuckyHouse.com guy.

$325000 4/3 Flexible Lease Option Terms on Big Family Home!

62898 NE Bilyeu Way
Bend, Oregon
5K down $1300 per month
10K down $1000 per month
15K down $550 per month


Check the address on DIAL shows:

ADKISSON,WENDY
17550 PLAINVIEW CT
BEND OR 97701

Site Address: 62889 BILYEU WAY BEND 97701

SALES: --- 1 --- --- 2 --- --- 3 ---
Date 09-26-07
Sale $ 352000 700000* 355020*
Cndtn 26 06 35
Class 101 100 100
Inst # 2007-53132 2006-12809* 2005-02013*


Yup, BOUGHT nary a month ago at $352K, now she wants OUT at $325K. Ye Old One Month Short Sale.... and a Realtor no less.

Smart.

Anonymous said...

"Yup, BOUGHT nary a month ago at $352K, now she wants OUT at $325K"

Maybe she was thinking flip and then the latest Case/Shiller numbers convinced her otherwise. Now she is just trying not to lose.

BTW, I am a newbie on BendBlog2, and I just went to Renaissance Homes webpage, and as a person in a big east coast city that does PR for a living, that page has desperation written all over it. Aside from that, you guys make great points here - what does a green-built home mean when the development it is in is itself an environmental and ecological disaster (elk, etc.)?

Anonymous said...

Yup, BOUGHT nary a month ago at $352K, now she wants OUT at $325K. Ye Old One Month Short Sale.... and a Realtor no less.

Smart.

*

This how Oregon bubbles end, she probably has a $1500/mo payment, she's hoping for $5k cash to carry through. Last time this shit happened in 1983 non of them actually paid the MTG with the renter's money, it took 1-2 year for HUD to kick out the renter. Now with all MTG held by 'toxic-paper' [ AAA ] who knows how long it will take to kick out the renter?

It's for sure this realtor in September thought she was getting the DEAL of a lifetime. Kool-Aide, paul keeps selling the kool-aide.

Anonymous said...

Aside from that, you guys make great points here - what does a green-built home mean when the development it is in is itself an environmental and ecological disaster (elk, etc.)?

*

WHAT THE FUCK DOES GREEN MEAN IN OREGON?

I'll tell you having BEEN HERE forever. In Oregon we always name developments after that which is destroyed. If something is 'GREEN' in Oregon, it means it was clear-cut. If something is called 'MEADOWS', it means that there used to be a meadow where there is now a parking-lot.

Anonymous said...

"Randy's running TV commercials in the Portland market"

*

Randy better be doing ad's in PDX, because HE sure and the hell isn't going to find a BUYER in Bend.

BEND IS FUCKED.

Anonymous said...

I'll tell you, sometime when BEND goes ballistic this winter, because our economy is going to be at a standstill post turkey-day.

There ain't going to be an xmas in Bend.

Juniper-Ridge isn't big enough to hold all the pissed off 'surplus peasants'.

Anonymous said...

"we always name developments after that which is destroyed."

Yup, Fox Chase = chased all the foxes out....green meadows = built on filled-in meadows...Timber Ridge = sure there was timber, before the development was there.

Anonymous said...

It's been suggested that there has been fraud on the part of city management. Has any audit been done recently?

Timothy said...

>>Yup, BOUGHT nary a month ago at $352K, now she wants OUT at $325K. Ye Old One Month Short Sale.... and a Realtor no less.

This one could possibly be explained away as a dyslexia problem.

Anonymous said...

It's been suggested that there has been fraud on the part of city management. Has any audit been done recently?

*

Jeezus FUCKING CHRIST what a rendundant statement. Bend is the little desert town built on FRAUD, RE is FRAUD, MTG is FRAUD, the COP-SHOP is a FRAUD.

The fucking city judge is a fucking FRAUD.

Is the city-management engaged in FRAUD? Talking about changing the subject.

The question is. WHO IN BEND IS NOT ENGAGED IN FRAUD????

Anonymous said...

Builders can lease-option homes, pocket the rent, declare bankruptcy, and carry through.

It's not a bad time, at least up until Aug 2007, you could still get MTG money nothing down in Bend on a below-jumbo loan, this means that then you rent the home on lease-option. Don't pay the MTG, and most likely it will take 1-2 years before the system evicts your cash cow and he quits paying rent.

Don't laugh everybody was doing this in the early 80's, its very difficult to prove this scam is an intentional FRAUD, hell all of Bend is a FRAUD. Like BEM say's "Everybody in Bend does it".

If you can get say $10k up front on a lease-option, that is actually better than a 110% loan, because you don't actually owe any money.

How sweet it is when you have the legal system on your side. God help these poor dumb fucks that buy these lease options.

Anonymous said...

It's been suggested that there has been fraud on the part of city management. Has any audit been done recently?

*

City Council got rid of the City Attorney and City Auditor about the time DUBYA was elected. Nobody needs them, they just got in the way of progress.

The City of Bend is a private business. Which owned by area Real Estate interests.

Anonymous said...

Did you all notice that "POWERZ" has done exactly as they said they would do.

MT-B is NOT a ski area, but a condo resort. The old parking mall in Bend, is now going to be condo's.

POWERZ made more money on Real Estate buy buying MT-B Ski, than they do on lift tickets. Once all the Real Estate assets are GONE, expect "Powerdz" to declare bankruptcy, and a new low bidder will drive MT-B even deeper into the ground.

Anonymous said...

>>Yup, BOUGHT nary a month ago at $352K, now she wants OUT at $325K. Ye Old One Month Short Sale.... and a Realtor no less.

This one could possibly be explained away as a dyslexia problem.

*

Let's just close our eyes for a moment an imagine that there was a large party at BT, where all the realtors agree to BUY a home this summer, in order to create a perceived market.

Then lets imagine that a few realtors are now getting cold feet, and don't want to be the last sucker hold property in Bend.

Everything you see in Bend is a Fraud, everything the BULL prints is a Fraud, we're all standing on a Foundation of Sand in Bend.

The whole establishment is about to collapse.

( Actually modern Bend is built on pummy-power even less stable than sand. )

Anonymous said...

>>Yup, BOUGHT nary a month ago at $352K, now she wants OUT at $325K. Ye Old One Month Short Sale.... and a Realtor no less.

This one could possibly be explained away as a dyslexia problem.


Dyslexia cannot explain buying a shit-shack in Aug 2007 in Bend, did anyone see a picture of this pathetic crap-shack. This one even a realtor wouldn't live in, let alone a deer mouse or chip-munk family.
There has to be a fraudulent reason to explain this purchase, stupidity, or Dyslexia would not explain this irrational purchase.

62898 NE Bilyeu Way, bend,oregon

Shitty hood, shitty home, everything about this home stinks. What kind of pathetic renter will bite this shit? There are at least 1,000's of lease-option shacks in Bend that are authentic craps-men, this is just Beaverton sub-div, east side BadLand CRAP.

Anonymous said...

Rejoice!

Super Burrito will be back in downtown Bend in about a month, in the big tall building at Wall and Greenwood.

Anonymous said...

A few quotes for the RICH of Bend.

***

“Every time you stop a school, you will have to build a jail. What you gain at one end you lose at the other. It's like feeding a dog on his own tail. It won't fatten the dog.”


-- Mark Twain, Speech 11/23/1900



”The reformative effect of punishment is a belief that dies hard, I think, because it is so satisfying to our sadistic impulses.”


-- Bertrand Russell, Ideas That Have Harmed Mankind



“The rich rob the poor and the poor rob one another.”


-- Sojourner Truth, saying



“The prestige of government has undoubtedly been lowered considerably by the Prohibition law. For nothing is more destructive of respect for the government and the law of the land than passing laws which cannot be enforced. It is an open secret that the dangerous increase of crime in this country is closely connected with this.”


-- Albert Einstein, My First Impression of the U.S.A., 1921

Anonymous said...

Super Burrito will be back in downtown Bend

*

Take NOTE CALI CUNT dog-shit eaters. This is the ONLY model of business in Bend that works.

Too bad that ol 'super burrito' will disappear once again, as soon Boss Garzini will unleash his dogs of war looking for fodder. Ain't no better Garzini-Fodder than mexicans.

Anonymous said...

"City Council got rid of the City Attorney and City Auditor ... Bend is a private business owned by area Real Estate interests."

Call me naive but perhaps it's time for citizens to start demanding audits.

Anonymous said...

Call me naive but perhaps it's time for citizens to start demanding audits.

*

Beat your chest demand, Bend is about money. Chest beating walks, and money talks in this town.

Anonymous said...

The whole reason that Bend is the MOST over-priced RE in the country is that Bend city-hall was using taxpayer money to finance the BULL.

Now that the bubble is deflating don't expect mea-culpa's. Virtually everyone in this town was on the 'get-rich-quick' bandwagon. City Hall was just doing what the electable class does to ensure election.

We have met the enemy, and he is the citizen of Bend.

Joey in Sisters said...

Prediction: YOUR PREDICTIONS DO NOT PAN OUT. At least to the extent you make.

Prediction: NATIONAL RECESSION BY 3Q 2008.

I think nationally there will be plenty of bloodletting and locally as well. But in general I think it will be back to 2001 - 2002 here once all is said and done...

Anonymous said...

But in general I think it will be back to 2001 - 2002 here once all is said and done...

*

I think we all assumed that just look at bend & its slut sister (sisters), but now if all the national problem, its going to be far worse, of course you could only be referring the fucking 'jeezus like' RE prices. FUCK RE. Folks in Bend were very comfortable in 2002, we're going back to 1983 comfort levels.

Little slut sisters? Complete fucking implosion, have fun selling cotton-candy to tourists.

Bend Private Auditor said...

Hello,
I understand you request an 'audit'. I represent the Bend Auditing firm of 'skin&butcher' our firm is concerned with the solvency of your town. Thus we ask, if your serious about paying for an audit that all Bend Citizens sign a personal note of guarantor on behalf of our firm.

Given that Bend will go bankrupt, and given the BK attorneys will strip the city clean of assets. We're rather confident that our forensic audit will clearly provide everyone with details as to where the Bend Treasury actually went.

We understand your concern. We hope your understand our concern.

Waiting for an open check.

Sincerely, yours

Anonymous said...

Call me naive but perhaps it's time for citizens to start demanding audits.

*

Yes, audits, and lawyers, and how about a few CPA's on the band-wagon.

Every two bit hustler in the country will help Bend find where all the taxpayer money went.

Don't look to far, most of it was spent on wine,women, and song by City Hall in the name of PR & Marketing.

A great percentage of the parasitic electorate of Bend partied like hell during the golden years of 1998->2007. Now its chipmunk and roadkill.

Yeh, a fucking audit, like the people Bend don't know what was going on. One thing is for DAMN certain the city documented virtually everything on their website. No fucking secrets in Bend. No conspiracy.

Just a fucking parasitic electorate fucking each other in the ass and selling RE to each other. All getting rich. Now the its over and they're trying to figure out why the program didn't keep going forever.

Remember Bend is exceptional. The Best Resort Town in the Western Hemisphere, so said Bend Tourism. Bend RE up 30%/yr always has, always will so says BEND RE-HO's. ...

Anonymous said...

It's been suggested that there has been fraud on the part of city management.

*

Fraud in Bend. I'm shocked.

The towns a Fraud.

fartblossom said...

Short comment on your "great rant"

Jeezus, you are a monotonal idiot.

All indicators MUST end in disaster.

Please continue to see nothing but failure ... It does take disagreement to make a market, and without suckers like you selling on a marketplace like this, opportunity would fester.

So when do you plan to leave this hellhole, loser? Let me know, so I can profit off the ghost of your carcass while you decamp for the brighter world of .. oh, gee ... West Virginia or something?

Anonymous said...

Please continue to see nothing but failure ...

*

I love these guys that post from their PDA's, they always keep it to a few words or sentences. That can only explain the only reason why they're incapable of asserting their position.

Anonymous said...

All indicators MUST end in disaster.

*

Randy Sebastian going to prison and getting fucked in ass 24/7 by a huge chimp? That is a disaster?

All these outcomes presented in this debate are good things. Most people didn't play, those that did will get financially reamed.

Sebastian, Hollern, Breeze, Dubois,
... Disaster? For them yes, for the 'surplus population' NO.

Bend will return to a washed up old logging town, sans the log's. Disaster hell-no, soon Powderz will sell Mt-B, then Bend will only be a jun/jul golf area. How long will that last?? Now that there are NO deals to be made, why in the hell will the SUV class bother to golf?

All this is a GOOD THING, no disaster.

Well maybe for ALL the politicians in Bend, and all the city staff, they're FUCKED. That just means they have to get a real job. This is what is so great about depressions.

Everything we debate here is a good thing.

Anonymous said...

Duncan Say's questions NPR's reporting that RE has been falling for two years.

***

BENDBUST said...

I think that's true, if you really look at Bend, it started to go to shit summer 06, but the BIG BOYS were dumping their CACB spring 06. Thus I can see that some would say that winter 05 the Bend Bubble was over.

Certainly Bend was one of the first to turn. I think really PDX didn't turn until Spring 07, in fact the same conservative mutual fund that I know that dumped their CACB, dumped their PDX CONDO-REIT early spring 07.

So yeh, in hindsight the Bend bubble has now been imploding for two years, is it over?? Hell NO, we have at least until 2011 before the summer 06 5/1 ARMS are done resetting, and purging.

Why is NPR talking about two years? Probably so they can appear to be NOT horses asses, personally I think its all politics. The DEMS will start the 'I told you so'. Very soon.

Yeh, I can see two year argument, and then there is places like Atlanta that have definitely been down for two years. Then there is DETROIT that has been down LONGER, if you start averaging the RE Bubble Implosion, two years is probably a damn good average.

PDX was the last to start imploding, but will also be the last to recover.

Bend has ARM's reset to work-off, and inventory, like the story today in BARRON's that only 10% of empty homes are for-sale. There is a whole lot of inventory that is NOT on the NAR radar.

Yes, it's most likely been going down on average now for two years, and expect to see another four years on average of weakness, on average.

There will be some places that will boom. Certainly with WWIV coming online in Iran (WWIII was IRAQ) there will be areas that prosper.

In hindsight I can really see the peak of Bend being called at early 06, damn close to two years in my book, and the recovery in Bend?? Its going to be at least 3+ years.

Also by recovery I just mean positive, we're not going to see 2005 highs for a generation. Too much pain, besides everyone knew the babyboom was going to cause a recession in the USA from 2005->2020. When WWIV is over in about ten years, there will be a new baby boom, and life goes on.

Anonymous said...

A comment about the dozen new restaurants in Bend.

*

If you look closely @ Merenda, @ The Deep, you'll see the same names like Jody Denton.

One thing off the radar BIG HUGE in Bend has been catering. A lot of these places MAKE their REAL money catering to events up at Broken-Top; You must understand that the restaurant is a marketing loss/leader, and a prep-station for for workers.

The real money in Bend during the last four years has been in Catering. Like the annual Broken-Top even that happens in August, a food orgy, bad wine, all the bacon-tempura you can eat. These events are typically $300, but a vast majority of attendee's have been comped with CITY PR/MARKETING money.

We fly golden people in to Bend from all over the world to attend events and hope they write about Bend. It's all been about Food&Wine. Like today over @ Deschutes, Gary Fish has to rent out his Mtn-Room for events quite often. The folks that get to cater this shit make a fortune.

What I'm trying to say is that the gig in Bend is NOT about what you see downtown. Its about the rich&famous spending taxpayer money in gated community's at private party's. Likewise all summer long at LS-Ampth, or Drake Park, there are VIP tents full of catered food. Again a few PAY BIG BUCKS, but most of the tickets are comped by RE,MTG,and CITY PR/MARKETING.

Until money is tight, expect to see lots of NEW Bend restaurants compete for city pr/marketing catering jobs. We know that in time this money will be gone, and that is when the things will get tough, guys like Jody Denton will then just move on. Until then CATER-ON.

Broken-Top, High Desert Museum, Brooks, ... its all about gluttony; Marketing Bend as a gastronomical alcoholic paradise.

Anonymous said...

If you read this closely, you'll notice that MT-B is persona-non-grata. Why is it that taxpayer money must be spent to enrich private sky-lifts?

Marketing inspiration
Bend tourism agency launches new campaign

By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin
Published: October 31. 2007 5:00AM PST

Central Oregon’s winter recreation offerings will be on full display this weekend for some 25,000 avid skiers and snowboarders who are expected to descend upon the Portland Expo Center for the largest consumer ski show in the Northwest.

The Portland Ski Fever & Snowboard Show, which runs Friday through Sunday, will be the vehicle for Central Oregon’s tourism industry to unveil a new branding concept and promote itself to thousands of powder hounds and gear heads.

Tourism businesses also would like consumers at the show to book lodging, buy a ski pass or plan a vacation to the area. Skiing plays a big role in driving visitors to Central Oregon during winter and funneling business into the region’s $498 million-a-year tourism economy.

The trade show will draw 130 exhibitors from Canada to Southern California, including nine from Central Oregon.

It will be the launching point for a new marketing campaign captured on a sign that will greet visitors to the Central Oregon section of the expo center, said Doug LaPlaca, president and CEO of the Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau. The sign — with the words, “Visit Bend, Be Inspired” — features prominent photos, including Mt. Bachelor ski area under a fresh blanket of snow and downtown Bend at night.

The visitor bureau will use the new representation of the Bend brand throughout the year in magazine, newspaper, television, radio and Web advertising spots, LaPlaca said.

“Regardless of whether tourists are visiting Bend for skiing, hiking, or fishing or enjoying the shops and restaurants, the common thread in the Bend tourist experience is that it’s an inspiring place to be,” he said.

The visitor bureau will share space at the show with the Bend Downtowners Association and The Shops at The Old Mill District, which are both attending the show this year for the first time, LaPlaca said.

In an effort not to overlap the two main marketing arms of the region, the Central Oregon Visitors Association will not attend the trade show this year. Instead, the tourism-promotion agency will launch a $250,000 winter print, newspaper, television and Web marketing campaign by mid-November, said Alana Audette, COVA’s president and CEO.

Other Central Oregon tourism companies attending the show include the Phoenix Inn Suites, Wanderlust Tours and The Riverhouse Hotel & Conference Center.

“Consumer ski shows are a great opportunity for us to communicate our offerings to a targeted audience of avid skiers,” LaPlaca said. “It’s not a major portion of our marketing strategy, but it’s an important piece.”

The show also could mean big business for Portland-area ski resorts that will sell a bulk of their season passes to locals who attend, according to Scott Kaden, president of the Pacific Northwest Ski Areas Association in Hood River.

“Some ski resorts use the Portland consumer expo as an opportunity to set up a Portland sales office for three days in November,” said Kaden, citing the three Mt. Hood ski resorts. “It’s their marketplace.”

Mt. Bachelor ski area will be selling directly to consumers, too, including five-day passes, but its main purpose for attending will be to meet face to face with the Portland audience, which is the company’s biggest market outside Central Oregon, said Matt Janney, Mt. Bachelor’s president and general manager.

“Part of the business is being seen, talking to people and answering questions,” Janney said. “We want to be in the front and the back of people’s minds as they make their travel decisions.”

Similarly, Hoodoo Mountain Resort on Santiam Pass will use the trade show to market itself to the Portland crowd, said Chuck Shepard, Hoodoo president.

Shepard wants to build on the momentum that he says the mountain has developed, adding, “People used to say, ‘Hoodoo, what’s that?’ Now they say ‘Hoodoo, cool.’”

Shepard expects to sell at least 20 Anycards, which enable individuals or groups to buy a group of five lift tickets for $30 each, Shepard said. Typically, individual lift tickets cost $39, Shepard said.

Anonymous said...

The Portland Ski Fever & Snowboard Show, which runs Friday through Sunday, will be the vehicle for Central Oregon’s tourism industry to unveil a new branding concept and promote itself to thousands of powder hounds and gear heads.

*

Yesterday we called them 'board bums', today they're all but extinct in Bend, driven away to Colorado, where snow is better, and freedom reigns.

Todays Bend is about 'trust fund' SUV golfers, skier's, given that HELOC is gone. It's going to be interesting how ma&pa pay for the spawn to go ski? Given that the MT-B bus is GONE, the traffic is going to be incredible.

Spend a million on marketing of taxpayer money. The window is only xmas to new-year.

I still don't know how parents can afford to spend $100/day per child.

It's going to be interesting if they pull this off, but no expense is held back, money grows on trees in Bend. We're exceptional. Best resort town in the western US.

Anonymous said...


Elk Brutally Rapes Randy Sebastian.


Walkers are winners in gate debate
Bend subdivision must provide access to existing trails, hearings officer rules

By David Fisher / The Bulletin
Published: October 30. 2007

Renaissance Homes President Randy Sebastian says he wants gates on the new subdivision he’s planning to build over an elk meadow on the Deschutes River, and he’ll continue his fight to get them.

The RiverRim Homeowners Association, on the other hand, thinks he’s trying to build too many houses on too little land, which they fear could flood too many cars onto RiverRim Drive and reduce property values in their surrounding neighborhoods, and they’ll continue to fight to get him to scale things down.

Both sides are taking their complaints to the City Council.

Meanwhile, at least one neighbor is pretty much resigned to a future of looking at new houses in the meadow behind his home instead of at a herd of grazing Roosevelt elk, no matter which way the subdivision goes.

“I think a lot of people are going to be missing them,” Charleswood Place resident Rob Cohen said, “but that’s the way the city goes, I guess. They don’t necessarily view these issues as important.”

Hearings officer Tim Elliott ruled earlier this year that Renaissance can build 100 homes on the 81.4-acre plot of land at the southern edge of the city’s boundaries, but only if it gives the public unfettered access to the river trails and the cinder cone trails that the developer has agreed to build around the eedges of the new Renaissance at River’s Edge subdivision.

That means no gates on the subdivision’s streets, Elliott ruled.

He also ordered the developer to build a 10-space parking lot in the middle of one of its southernmost neighborhoods because that would allow people to drive to the beginning of a popular cinder cone trail. Renaissance wanted to put the parking lot on the subdivision’s northern edge, away from its neighborhoods, but closer to the trailhead for a riverfront trail.

Renaissance appealed to Elliott to reconsider his ruling on both counts, arguing that the city has allowed gates on any number of subdivisions in Bend, including one that sits 50 feet from the Renaissance development’s northern boundary.

The company argued that Elliott’s decision to ban gates on its subdivision constituted unfair and unequal treatment, and that locating a parking lot inside one of its neighborhoods would constitute “bad planning.”

Elliott rejected those arguments. In a decision dated Oct 16, Elliott noted that Renaissance’s project is a Planned Unit Development, which allows it to break some of the city’s normal planning conventions in exchange for providing a “public benefit.” The developer got tighter lot sizes and shorter blocks, Elliott wrote, in exchange for providing new hiking trails, open space along the river and on the cinder cone, and a 150-foot corridor for the elk to move through.

“One cannot prevent or hinder access to those benefits,” Elliott wrote. “Gating the community would do that.”

Locating the parking lot where Renaissance wants to put it also would force people to walk nearly a mile through built-up neighborhoods to reach the cinder cone, Elliott wrote, which also would tend to hinder their access. So he ordered the developers to put it in the southern neighborhood, where he had ordered it to go in his earlier ruling.

Sebastian vowed Monday to appeal both issues to the City Council.

“I just want the same fair treatment,” Sebastian said. “We want to have a gated community.”

Gates, he said, don’t necessarily add to the price of Bend homes, but they do make them easier to sell.

“A lot of people who live in Bend travel, and they want to be able to think, ‘I’ve got a gate on my neighborhood’ when they’re away,” Sebastian said. “Not that there’s a high crime rate in Bend — it’s very low. But the gates do add a certain cachet to the community, and it certainly would enable the community to sell faster.”

Neighbors and elk

The RiverRim Homeowners Association filed its own appeal Monday, saying that Renaissance is planning to build more homes than the neighborhood can tolerate, association President John Wytsma said. The association wants RiverRim Drive, which will be the subdivision’s only outlet onto busy Brookswood Drive, to be classified as a neighborhood street, rather than a collector — a designation that allows the city to allow for higher traffic flows. It’s also arguing that the densities allowed in Elliott’s initial PUD ruling would slap “a wall of homes” in front of the existing neighborhood’s widely spaced homes, creating a jarring discontinuity and dropping the value of the existing neighborhood — something that the city’s PUD codes are supposed to guard against.

If the City Council refuses to hear the appeals or rejects them, either side could further appeal their case to the state’s Land Use Board of Appeals.

Regardless of which way the arguments go, the elk will apparently have to find their own way around Renaissance’s new subdivision once it’s built out.

Sebastian agreed to leave a 150-foot corridor for the animals on the southern edge of his development. The width is designed to match the width of a trail that was left for the animals years ago when the RiverRim subdivision was laid out, to give them access to a meadow that was preserved in the middle of that subdivision. The animals have used that corridor heavily in the winter months, grazing on Renaissance’s land near the river, then moving into the RiverRim meadow to feed some more.

Stosh Thompson, the landowner who’s selling the meadow to Renaissance, has agreed to keep land he owns to the south along the river open to the animals, but the Renaissance development will constrict their grazing grounds and push them into a corridor that will force them to walk on the slope of the cinder cone to get to the interior meadow, Cohen noted.

Steve George, a wildlife biologist with the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, said earlier this year that the increased contact with human neighborhoods and their dogs will “basically push that herd of elk back across the river, over time,” and the loss of grazing land will make it that much more difficult for them to survive on the city’s southern edge, where the neighborhood school is named Elk Meadow Elementary School.

“You’re not going to lose all of them,” George said, “but you’re definitely not going to have as many.”

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Development on the Deschutes gets OK'd
Project to proceed despite elk grazing, traffic concerns


A city hearings officer has given the OK for Portland-based Renaissance Homes to build 100 homes on one of the last big open chunks of land along the Deschutes River in Bend.

In a decision released last week, hearings officer Tim Elliott ruled that Renaissance is within its rights to build on an 81-acre meadow - frequently visited by elk - on the southern edge of the city, as long as Renaissance doesn't wrap the development in a fence and gate it.

Renaissance's building plans drew howls of protest earlier this year from its next-door neighbors in the River Rim subdivision, who claimed that its houses would be too close together; that it would pour too much traffic into its only main outlet, River Rim Drive; and that it would chase away the herd of Roosevelt elk that frequently graze on the meadow's grasses in winter.

It's not clear at this point whether the River Rim Community Association, or individual neighbors, will appeal Elliott's decision, although many are disappointed, Charleswood Lane resident Linda Cohen said.

Renaissance President Randy Sebastian, meanwhile, said he will proabably file an appeal of his own because he still wants the gate.

The elk question

Meanwhile, neighbors say they are concerned that the development will block the frequent migration of the Roosevelt elk into their own subdivision, even though Elliott ordered Renaissance to leave a 150-yard-wide corridor for the animals, and he blocked a city traffic engineer's request to force a road connection that would cross the animals' path.

River Rim was ordered years ago to leave a 20-acre meadow in the midst of its own houses, linked to the river and to Renaissance's meadow by a 150-yard corridor. The elk have continued to use the River Rim meadow and trail through the years, despite the appearance of new houses, yards and fences along their edges, partly because they could safely graze in the Renaissance meadow by the river, Cohen said.

"They won't come. They won't be here anymore" once Renaissance starts building, Cohen predicted. "There's nothing to eat on the cinder cone. They eat the grasses on the meadow."

"They are just diminishing, diminishing. But I guess that's not a big enough issue when the city wants to get money for a development," Cohen said. "We are completely, completely disappointed."

Steve George, Deschutes District wildlife biologist for the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, said Roosevelt elk were a rarity around Bend until about 50 years ago, when they started to extend their range down from the Cascades. The herd that frequents River Rim uses its grassy meadows for food when the mountain snows are deep, and it likes the Renaissance meadow because the river is easy to access at that point.

For several years now, the animals have come within a few feet of the existing neighborhoods' backyard fences, but they generally prefer to avoid human contact, George said. To an elk, dogs mean death to calves, and humans are associated with guns and hunting.

"Will it really impact them?" George said. "Oh, yes ... Over time, it will basically push that herd of elk back across the river."

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Sebastian vowed Monday to appeal both issues to the City Council.

“I just want the same fair treatment,” Sebastian said. “We want to have a gated community.”


FAIR TREATMENT? Lying sack of shit, he wants PREFERENTIAL treatment.

Notice Folks: Sebastian will do ANYTHING to sell homes, even fuck over the people already there. Do you really want to own a home built by such a pathological megalomaniac?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And when you read that piece, you see what a lunatic Sebastan is: HE GOT the right to build a hyper-dense community, IN EXCHANGE FOR trail access & NO GATES. His response?

I'll go to City Council & APPEAL BOTH.

He got what he wanted in exchange for 2 concessions... NOW HE'S SAYING FUCK THE CONCESSIONS. First stop: CITY COUNCIL where every fuckin deal ever made for the public good is IMMEDIATELY BROKEN.

This place is so fucked up.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Sebastian agreed to leave a 150-foot corridor for the animals on the southern edge of his development.

“I just want the same fair treatment,” Sebastian said. “We want to have a gated community.”


What sort of motherfuckin' lunatic AGREES to leave a 150ft corridor for elk... AND THEN FENCES IT IN?

What a fuckin nut.

"Yeah, I'll leave a 150ft elk migration corridor, as long as I can fence it in & render it completely USELESS."

You know what Sebastian, Next Time just go for the whole FIST FUCK, not these hideously conflicted half-assed "solutions" that are 100% self-defeating. Or just go to Renaissance Park, mow down every fuckin elk there with a semi-automatic, s that we do NOT have to tolerate your self-serving bullshit & then watch our City Council BOHICA our ass, yet again.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Not to mention the fact that the hyper-density granted to Renaissance makes any possibility of future elk migration in the area a moot point anyway. Running that corridor will be like walking down prison hallway where every inmate wants to grab & kill you; they won't run that gauntlet.

Might as well mow down these elk and let Sebastian put up his fuckin fence. City Council almost certainly will. They allow anything that puts more than $10 in city coffers, and seem especially thrilled to fuck over Bend's current population in the process.

Anonymous said...

Tourism businesses also would like consumers at the show to book lodging, buy a ski pass or plan a vacation to the area. Skiing plays a big role in driving visitors to Central Oregon during winter and funneling business into the region’s $498 million-a-year tourism economy.

**

"Candy is dandy, but liquor is quicker"

In Bend the BULL will soon be telling us - "Tourism is Dandy, but Prisons are Safer".

When will these cunts @ the BULL quit using this $500M figure for tourism?? This is the whole basis for wine&dine, like gluttons eating catered food and drinking wind at the high-desert-museum(brooks) and Broken-Top ( bauhofer ) has something to do with RV's coming to Redmond!

Anonymous said...

First stop: CITY COUNCIL where every fuckin deal ever made for the public good is IMMEDIATELY BROKEN.

This place is so fucked up.

*

This is BEND, ALL COUNCIL CUNT is development: Abernethy, Clinton, ... They all came out of Sebastian & Hollerns ass. This is how its done in Bend. Make a deal and the BULL reports your 'concessions', then you just do what the fuck you want, and the BULL ignores the fact that you didn't honor you concessions.

No problem to quote BEM "Everyone Does It in Bend".

Anonymous said...

Hey Cunts,

Ever been to the Ocean Near Big Sur in Cali?? You haven't because its all private property.

This is what is going to happen to all of the River Cooridor, its going to be safe from dogs, white-trash, blue-collar, mexicans, ...

The Golden's that RUN BEND, are going to make sure that ALL of the River Cooridor is a gated communtiy, and if you don't have your "PAPERS"

KEEP THE FUCK OUT.

Welcome to Bend.

Don't like the NEW BEND?? We have a bed at our New Juniper Ridge Prison waiting for you.

Anonymous said...

Elect Ron Garzini Bend Mayor.


OR: Rural Prisons Fail to Fulfill Economic Promises


Deer Ridge Correctional Institution is scheduled to open in 2007 in the central Oregon town of Madras. Like many rural towns in Oregon and other states, Madras needs more jobs and a better local economy. In the 1990s, the Oregon Department of Corrections convinced city leaders that a prison would be the economic development project the community needed.

Washington State University, Iowa State University, and The Sentencing Project have each published studies of prison towns showing that rural prisons don't provide the type of economic benefits the City of Madras is expecting.

Rural towns with prisons have less job growth and economic development than similar towns without prisons. Why? Because prisons don’t function like a regular business or industry. They don’t pay business or property taxes. They employ fewer local workers than promised, and prisoners often compete with local people for minimum wage jobs. Prisons rely on central distribution centers instead of buying supplies locally.

New jobs are the main hook for small towns who court prisons, but current Department of Corrections (DOC) staff have the first chance at jobs when a new prison opens. Representatives from the Oregon DOC initially promised Madras that 70% of jobs in the prison would go to residents. Several years later, corrections officials decreased that percentage to 60%, and this year DOC spokespeople said that maybe 50% of the prison’s employees would be hired locally. And inmate work crews compete with outside workers for low wage jobs, decreasing the amount of minimum wage work available locally. Prisoners at Snake River Correctional Institution (SRCI) in Ontario sort onions for a frozen food company and do park maintenance.

Prison towns also bank on prison staff living and shopping in the town. But in rural Oregon, corrections staff choose to commute from other towns. In Umatilla, sixty of the 400 people who work at Two Rivers Correctional Institution live in Umatilla. At SRCI, only 42% of the staff live in Oregon. The rest live in Idaho.

Anonymous said...

Elect Ron Garzini Bend Mayor.

OR: Rural Prisons Fail to Fulfill Economic Promises

*

Beating, Killing, and Imprisoning.

Running Bend like a Business.

Vote for Garzini in 2008

Anonymous said...

Representatives from the Oregon DOC initially promised Madras that 70% of jobs in the prison would go to residents. Several years later, corrections officials decreased that percentage to 60%, and this year DOC spokespeople said that maybe 50% of the prison’s employees would be hired locally.

*

Why should Sebastian honor his promises ( concessions ), nobody in fucking Oregon honors anything. Including the Government.

In Bend you use the 'Garzini' model, just fucking DO-IT, move out for awhile, and then come back a year and its all forgotten.

Nobody honors promises ( concessions ) why the fuck should Sebastian?

What a fucking trend that would be, to not let a developer get their way.

Hell this is the fucking place that STILL only makes developers pay 20% of the actual cost of infrastructure.

Bend is about making money quick and moving ON.

In BEND Bullshit-Blogging Walks, and MONEY talks.

M49 Supporter said...

Currently for the very connected of Oregon: Hollern (black-butte), Sebastian, JD-Gray (sunriver)... under M37 things are at a standstill.

You can sue the government, but nothing is really happening.

What M49 does is ...

1.) Lets you build three homes, on any pre-1972 parcel. This means that if you 100 acres, was divided into 100 one acre lots prior to 1972, because you were 'connected' you can build 300 homes. Most people who don't have names like Hollern, Gray, ... weren't connected in those days.

2.) M49 says that you can sell those parcel rights to third party's, currently you cannot do that.

M49 is a wind-fall for the old rich of Oregon, who were connected, and involved with SB100 LCDC prior to its creation.

Anonymous said...

The following is some contrarian viewpoints. The "New homes are Dead" are especially applicable to the IHTBYB/Sebastian debate.

***

As the Subprime Turns

"The Market for New Homes is Dead"

Mortgage Pig of the Year

When the Going Get Rough, Simply Borrow More

$100 Oil and $1,000 Gold

More Birthdays, Home Again and Deadlines

As the World Turns is a popular soap opera playing on American TV. It focuses, as do most soaps, on the lives and foibles of its characters, with plenty of dramatic flair. We are watching a different type of soap opera today which we could call "As the Subprime Turns. And the world is watching. It has plenty of drama, lots of flawed characters, a plot that is hard to understand, everyone saying it was the other guys fault and the world (literally) paying for the sins of exuberance in the US.

In this week's letter we look at the housing markets, its affect on consumer spending, take a glance at oil and see if we can figure out why the stock market is so excited.

But first, let me re-visit last week's letter where I talked about the $80 billion Super SIV fund that is being created by Citigroup, Bank of American and JP Morgan Chase. A lot of commentators have been writing about what a bad idea it is, and a few have taken me to task. They think it is a bad idea to rescue bad investments. They want the market to clean out the bad stuff so we can start functioning again.

And I agree, but that is not what the fund is going to do, as I understand it. The Super SIV fund is simply offering to buy only the good assets in failed SIVs. In essence, they (and the US Treasury) are worried that there will be a rush to the exits from failing SIVs (mostly in Europe) that will result in a panic forcing down the prices of good assets far below where they should be. That could seriously affect the capital structure of US banks and create a severe credit crunch. This fund simply sets a floor for the price of good assets at $.94 cents in cash and a 4% note.

They are not going to take the subprime junk. That is going to have to be written off by whoever owns it. This does not seem like a bail-out to me, but self-interested parties in a free market whose interest is in avoiding a panic and also will allow a mark to market price for assets. I think it makes sense.

If I am wrong and any of the toxic subprime assets show up in the Super SIV, then I would agree that it is a very bad idea indeed. Anyone who wants to read my entire take on the SIV problems and missed it last week can go to http://www.2000wave.com/article.asp?id=mwo101907.


"The Market for New Homes is Dead"

Consumer sentiment continued its 17 month decline, dropping in the University of Michigan poll to under 81. And the consumer has a reason to be bummed out. He is watching the price of food and energy rise and home prices fall.

ConsumerChart

Existing home sales fell to an annualized rate of 5 million while the number of homes for sale rose to a 10.5 month supply. Sales are down 19% from a year ago, but much of that drop is in the last few months, as there was an 8% drop in just the last month, as loans (see more below) keep getting harder to find. If you are trying to sell a condominium, it is even worse. There is a 12.6 months supply of condos.

But we also found out yesterday that median prices for homes that sold were down by 5%. It is the first real sign that homeowners were willing to sell for less. Typically home owners don't want to sell for less than the best price they have recently heard for their home. And as they resist lowering their price, the inventory goes up.

And that is the national number. There are markets in Florida where the supply of homes for sale is in the 36 month range. And we are adding more homes every day through foreclosures.

But wait. We find out that new home sales rose by 4.8%. Inventories are down modestly to 8.3 months of supply, but up from the 3.5 months of supply we saw this time last year. Have we seen the bottom? Depends on how you look at the data.

New home sales for September came in at 770,000. Last month they told us August sales were 795,000. So how did they figure an almost 5% rise? Well, it seems they had to revise August sales down by 60,000 as August was really only 735,000. And there is a pattern here. June was revised down by 38,000. July was revised down by 69,000. Cancellations are running at 30%. Anyone care to wager that September numbers won't be revised down below August? And then we will find out that home sales did in fact drop.

If there was such a reckless person, it probably wouldn't be someone from the housing industry. The National Association of Home Builders released their latest survey. This is not a happy group. The index is at its lowest point ever (see chart below). Homebuilder optimism is down. Traffic (people looking to buy a new home) is at its lowest level ever.

As Economy.com says this week, "The market for new homes is dead for all practical purposes. Eighteen is the lowest rating in the history of the index. The seasonally adjusted numbers are also the lowest on record for October for every subcategory, as they have been for each month since spring began. The bottom of this market will not be reached until there is another significant decline in the cost to prospective buyers, both in house prices and mortgage rates."

Housing Market Index Chart

Why are things so bad? In part, because the home mortgage industry is reeling. It is very difficult to get a non-conforming loan. The subprime mortgage market is comatose, as any mortgage bank which makes a loan today has to expect to keep it on their books. Lending standards are then appropriately tight. There is simply no securitization of subprime loans to speak of, down from $600 billion last year.

And for good reason. As is now known to everyone, investing in subprime asset backed securities had been a bad bet. An index which tracks Residential Mortgage Backed Securities shows that the BBB- index for RMBS is down to $.18 cents on the dollar. And this was for mortgages in a security that was sold earlier this year. Being down 82% in less than a year is not what you expect from an investment grade bond. (www.markit.com)

Markit Price Chart

The AAA portion of the same bonds are down by 16% and the AA is down by an astounding 48% with the A rated paper down by 71%. Again, that is for an index of 20 RMBS that was put together and sold this year. Ugly.


Mortgage Pig of the Year

And a great illustration of how really bad it is was written by Allan Sloan (senior editor-at-large for Fortune) in this week's Fortune. It is simply the best explanation of the current meltdown in the subprime market I have read anywhere. I am going to five you a brief summary, but you can read it for yourself in the October 29 Fortune, or at this link: http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/15/markets/junk_mortgages.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007101609

Sloan asked for someone to show him one of the worst of the RMBS. He was directed to one called the Goldman Sachs Alternative Mortgage Products Trust 2006-3. It was a mere $494 million, or about 1% of the $500 billion RMBS's that were issued last year.

It does qualify for pig of the year. It was composed entirely of second lien loans.

But let's go the story and let Sloan tell it. "In the spring of 2006, Goldman assembled 8,274 second-mortgage loans originated by Fremont Investment & Loan, Long Beach Mortgage Co., and assorted other players. More than a third of the loans were in California, then a hot market. It was a run-of-the-mill deal, one of the 916 residential mortgage-backed issues totaling $592 billion that were sold last year.

"The average equity that the second-mortgage borrowers had in their homes was 0.71%. (No, that's not a misprint - the average loan-to-value of the issue's borrowers was 99.29%.)

"It gets even hinkier. Some 58% of the loans were no-documentation or low-documentation. This means that although 98% of the borrowers said they were occupying the homes they were borrowing on - "owner-occupied" loans are considered less risky than loans to speculators - no one knows if that was true. And no one knows whether borrowers' incomes or assets bore any serious relationship to what they told the mortgage lenders.

"You can see why borrowers lined up for the loans, even though they carried high interest rates. If you took out one of these second mortgages and a typical 80% first mortgage, you got to buy a house with essentially none of your own money at risk. If house prices rose, you'd have a profit. If house prices fell and you couldn't make your mortgage payments, you'd get to walk away with nothing (or almost nothing) out of pocket. It was go-go finance, very 21st century."

Now as my long time readers know, these securities are sliced up into different portions called a tranche (which Sloan tells me is French for slice, something I didn't know). Goldman created 13 different tranches with ratings from Moody's and Standard and Poor's starting at AAA and going down to BB (and the last piece or the "equity" tranche is not rated. Six of those tranches have already been completely written off. The AA tranche is now considered junk. Look at the chart below which shows fast the losses started piling up from a start point just 18 months ago.

The Gsamp Slide Chart

And that average loan to value of 1% is under water with home prices down at least 10% in those California and Florida markets and going lower. But it gets worse. You wonder if the people buying this paper actually read the prospectus on what they were buying. Back to Sloan:

"Through the end of 2005, if you couldn't make your mortgage payments, you could generally get out from under by selling the house at a profit or refinancing it. But in 2006 we hit an inflection point. House prices began stagnating or falling in many markets. Instead of HPA - industry shorthand for house-price appreciation - we had HPD: house-price depreciation.

"Interest rates on mortgages stopped falling. Way too late, as usual, regulators and lenders began imposing higher credit standards. If you had borrowed 99%-plus of the purchase price (as the average GSAMP borrower did) and couldn't make your payments, couldn't refinance, and couldn't sell at a profit, it was over. Lights out.

"As a second-mortgage holder, GSAMP couldn't foreclose on deadbeats unless the first-mortgage holder also foreclosed. That's because to foreclose on a second mortgage, you have to repay the first mortgage in full, and there was no money set aside to do that. So if a borrower decided to keep on paying the first mortgage but not the second, the holder of the second would get bagged.

"If the holder of the first mortgage foreclosed, there was likely to be little or nothing left for GSAMP, the second-mortgage holder. Indeed, the monthly reports issued by Deutsche Bank (Charts), the issue's trustee, indicate that GSAMP has recovered almost nothing on its foreclosed loans.

"By February 2007, Moody's and S&P began downgrading the issue. Both agencies dropped the top-rated tranches all the way to BBB from their original AAA, depressing the securities' market price substantially.

In March, less than a year after the issue was sold, GSAMP began defaulting on its obligations. By the end of September, 18% of the loans had defaulted, according to Deutsche Bank.

"As a result, the X tranche, both B tranches, and the four bottom M tranches have been wiped out, and M-3 is being chewed up like a frame house with termites. At this point, there's no way to know whether any of the A tranches will ultimately be impaired."

I just touched the surface of this article. It is well worth reading. But it illustrates why no subprime paper is going to be written for some time. There are going to have to be new standards for mortgages that will create the confidence in the probability that an investor will get all the principal and interest due him.

It also means that the weak housing market is going to get worse before we see the bottom. Two million homes will go into foreclosure in the next two years, if home prices continue to slump, said a report released by Joint Economic Committee Chairman Senator Charles Schumer. Home ownership rates are beginning to decline for the first time since 1981.

The ownership rate reached a record 69.3% of households in 2004, up from 64% a decade earlier. With home prices soaring, net household wealth nearly doubled to $51.8 trillion at the end of 2005 from $27.6 trillion in 1995, with real-estate accounting for 47 percent of the change, according to Federal Reserve data.

That growth has boosted consumer confidence and spending. Studies show that consumer spending increases by about $5 for every $100 rise in the value of a consumer's home. But if home values decline, the reverse should happen.


When the Going Get Rough, Simply Borrow More

Next week's Outside the Box will be from my friends at Hoisington Investment Management Company. But I have to use one of the tables as it makes a very remarkable point. Most of us (including me) have been under the impression that Home Equity Mortgage Withdrawals have been on the serious decline. But that is not entirely the case as the table below shows.

"First, home equity cash outs, as tabulated by Freddie Mac, totaled $151 billion, or an amount equal to 50% of the rise in total consumer spending (PCE) during the initial two quarters of 2007. Not all of the proceeds of the equity extractions went toward consumer spending, yet the total sum was a substantial source of liquidity for the consumer. More amazing, perhaps, is the fact that over the past 5 1/2 years, $1.1 trillion in equity has been extracted from homes. This represents 46% of the increase in total consumer spending over the same period (Table 2). The tightening of credit standards and declining home prices will virtually guarantee that $1.1 trillion will not be extracted in the next few years. Consequently, slower consumer outlay growth can be expected for an extended period."

Home Equity Extraction Chart


$100 Oil and $1,000 Gold

I wrote in August of 2006 that $100 oil would be the solution and not the problem. It will cause people to look for substitute energy sources. However, I did not think we would see $100 oil so soon. I was asking in January of this year, with oil bouncing around the mid-50's (down from a recent $77) whether oil should be $40 or $80? Today, oil hit $92 before selling off a little at the close to $91.86.

Let's go back to the beginning of 2002. Oil was $15.89 a barrel and 17.96 (in euros). Oil has since risen 3.5 times in terms of euros and 5.8 in dollar terms in less than 6 years. The difference clearly shows the depreciation of the dollar.

It is hard to imagine that $90 oil is not going to have some impact on consumers. If you heat your home with oil, and tens of millions do, you are going to be wearing more sweaters in the house are you are going to have a much higher bill this winter.

Between rising costs and a decreasing ability to borrow, the US consumer is finally going to have to retreat a little in the next few quarters.

Gold closed today at $787.50 with the dollar falling to almost $1.44 in euros. That is an interesting cap to the week in which I was at the New Orleans Conference attended mainly by gold bugs. 80% of the exhibitors were natural resource companies of one flavor or another.

As you might imagine, there were a lot of happy investors. And a lot of advisors bearish on the dollar, as I have been for almost six years. But I have to tell you that makes me nervous.

One of my favorite movies of all time is Trading Places. It is Dan Akroyd and Eddie Murphy at their best. But one of the great lines comes from Don Ameche and Ralph Bellamy, who play the two older brothers Randolph and Mortimer Duke, respectively. As the world of orange juice prices go against them, Don Ameche turns to Bellamy and yells, "Sell! Mortimer. Sell!" But there was no one on the other side to buy, and they went bankrupt.

And who can forget the cameo scene in Murphy's Coming to America where he gave a sack of cash to two skid row bums, who turn out to be the Dukes. They leap up shouting "We're back in business!" Such is the mentality of traders.

I think $1.50 against the euro is in the cards. But the dollar could bounce back viciously before that, as everyone everywhere is bearish. There needs to be someone on the other side of the trade. One of the great rules of trading is that when everybody is on the same side of the investing boat, the boat is going to turn over.

That being said, I think there is still time to get in on the fun in gold. In my opinion, gold is a neutral currency. I think gold goes up against most currencies everywhere over the next five years. You can play that with an ETF on gold or by buying gold stocks. I like the stock approach.

I spent some time in New Orleans with old friends Doug Casey and David Galland of Casey Research. They do a lot of research on gold and natural resource stocks and have been on a roll of late. If you want to invest in gold stocks, you should seriously consider subscribing to Doug Casey's International Speculator. I made my first "ten-bagger" almost 25 years ago on a tip from Doug (where does the time go?). He is still on his game, although with somewhat less hair. But it is ok to lose some hair as long as you do not lose the passion.

Anonymous said...

Economy.com says this week, "The market for new homes is dead for all practical purposes.
Eighteen is the lowest rating in the history of the index. The seasonally adjusted numbers are also the lowest on record for October for every subcategory, as they have been for each month since spring began. The bottom of this market will not be reached until there is another significant decline in the cost to prospective buyers, both in house prices and mortgage rates."

Anonymous said...

HOLY FUCKING SHIT - IHTBYB - READ THIS ...

The average equity that the second-mortgage borrowers had in their homes was 0.71%. (No, that's not a misprint - the average loan-to-value of the issue's borrowers was 99.29%.)

http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/15/markets/junk_mortgages.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007101609

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

When will these cunts @ the BULL quit using this $500M figure for tourism?

My brother, it's $498 MILLION!

That gives it this air of scientific exactitude, like they got the motherfucker under a microscope. If that Alana Audette bandied about "Half a billion", sounds like she pull that outta her ass.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Wow, the 12:22PM comment is great, especially "Mortgage Pig of the Year".

Scroll up, Good stuff.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Do a search for "$498 million" in the Bulletin online, and you can see they've been using that figure for over 2 years.

Made it up one day, been using it ever since. Typical Bend Marketing Bullshit. There's no way to accurately measure that shit, so they guesstimate... but they can't let it go at "half a bill"... gotta act like they know EXACTLY, to the penny. Like they're fucking PhD's.

They don't know shit. Gotta justify pissing away tax dollars though. And man do they piss it away...

Anonymous said...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Do a search for "$498 million" in the Bulletin online, and you can see they've been using that figure for over 2 years

*

It's all about the DVA (VCB) budget for Bend, which is a cool MILLION taxpayer bucks. 1/2 goes to DVA, which is PR-BUNNY's ( no different than REHO's ), the other 1/2 to VCB, which is about wine&food for private party's.

The logic goes, $1M is a fair price to pay for $500M, like fucking PR-BUNNYS and alki's @ broken-top eating catered food, has something to do with anything.

Bend is so fucking FUCKED.

Hell EVEN BEM, has suggest that $1M city budget may have lost any meaning, as its been so over-played. Don't matter, can you imagine the Goldens in Bend using their OWN money for wine & food??

I can't.

Anonymous said...

My brother, it's $498 MILLION!

*

The best thing about that magic number is PR firm DVA, gets an automatic 1/10 of 1% of that number.

Because as we all know, if it weren't for DVA all those RV's wouldn't be coming to Redmond in the first place.

Anonymous said...

http://www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/docs/minutes_04_04_07_Work_Session.pdf.

http://www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/docs/VCB_marketing_and_business_plan.pdf.

BEND VISITOR & CONVENTION BUREAU
2007-2008 Business and Marketing Plan

KEY MESSAGES
1. Bend is the west’s premier year-round destination.
2. Bend is situated on the sunny eastern slope of the Cascades, with 250 days of sunshine annually
(dispel any rainy Oregon perceptions).
3. Bend’s recreation opportunities are virtually limitless, and are on par with any other destination.
4. Bend’s arts/culture scene has long been a key attraction, and continues to grow.
5. Bend’s dining and nightlife has experienced tremendous growth, with some of the best dining to
be found anywhere.
6. Bend has convenient year-round access via non-stop flights from Seattle, Portland, San
Francisco, Salt Lake City, Los Angeles and Las Vegas.
7. Visitors to Bend co-mingle with locals in any given location, on any given night.
8. The Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau is the resource for visitors and the authority for Bend
information.

Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau
FY 07/08 Proposed Budget
FY 06/07
Budget
FY 07/08
Proposed
Budget
% Increase
(Decrease)
Income
City Funding
811,800
852,390
5%
Interest
1,000
1,000
0%
Retail Sales
15,000
18,000
20%
Total Income
827,800
871,390
5%
Expense
Advertising and Marketing
459,600
478,500 // DVA
4%

Anonymous said...

IHTBYB, grab a beer, before you read this and slowly, its a riot how these 'creative types' are going to rob the city treasury, so they can party with out of town 'friends of Bend'.

***

Bend, Ore., tourism agency hopes to put town in national spotlight

Still basking in the glow of a label by Outside magazine in August as the Pacific Northwest's best recreation town to live in, Bend's tourism-promotion agency wants to spread the word of the city's many attributes to a broader national audience.

The public relations firm for the Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau hatched a plan Tuesday, with support from the agency's board of directors, that tourism representatives hope will shine the national media spotlight on the city for a price cheaper than paid advertisements.

The visitor bureau plans to host six separate "media familiarization tours" for which it will invite writers representing national magazines, plan their itineraries and cover their expenses.

The tours, planned to begin in February, will involve the coordinated efforts of several different segments of Bend's tourism industry, including winter recreation, cycling, fly-fishing, golf, and food and dining.

"Bend has a story that merits telling to a broader audience than the Pacific Northwest," said Doug LaPlaca, the president and chief executive of the visitor bureau. "Public relations is the most effective and affordable medium to tell our story to a national and international audience."

The visitor bureau, which contracts with DVA Advertising & Public Relations of Bend to generate media exposure for the city as a tourist destination, has $50,000 allotted for public relations out of its marketing and advertising budget of $478,500. The bureau's total budget for the fiscal year that began July 1 is $852,000 and is allocated by the city of Bend.

The agency will take advantage of a $50 media round-trip airfare from Horizon Air and a $100 round-trip airfare from SkyWest Airlines, LaPlaca said. SkyWest Airlines Inc. operates as United Express and Delta Connection. Other corporate partners could include Bainbridge Island, Wash.-based Sage Manufacturing, which makes fly-fishing rods, he said.

Local tourism providers will be asked to pick up writers' expenses in return for increased exposure in the articles that are expected to be written, he said.

"We will ask our local lodging, dining and recreation providers to put their best food forward so that when these journalists come to town, they will have something to write about," LaPlaca said.

At least one tourism promoter said he would be willing to support the plan, as long as it could produce tangible results.

"The value depends on what you want to do," said Peter Bowers, the owner of The Patient Angler in Bend. "A lot of writers call me, and I do what I can to help them out. But a lot of people are looking for a freebie. I need to be cautious where I spend my time and money."

LaPlaca, who assumed his leadership post Aug. 6, has said his primary focus has been finding out what the visitor bureau can do to help spark different segments of the city's tourism industry. Bend has about 1 million overnight visitors annually who spend about $95 per day, contributing to Central Oregon's $498-million-per-year tourism economy, according to a 2005 report from the bureau.

For the first familiarization tour in February, which will coincide with Bend Winterfest, the visitor bureau and DVA will invite writers from Powder and Snowboarder magazines, as well as the North American Snow-sports Journalists Association.

The writers will get a scheduled itinerary that could include skiing and after-skiing entertainment like spa treatments and downtown dining.

Its local partners for the February campaign would include Mt. Bachelor ski area, Wanderlust Tours, and lodging and dining operators, according to DVA.

In May, the visitor bureau would invite writers representing publications that include Triathlete, Road and Bike magazines to partner with local companies such as Bend Bike 'N Sport, Cog Wild Bicycle Tours and Central Oregon Trail Alliance.

Other media tours in June, July, August and October would shine the spotlight on the area's fly-fishing, general travel, golf, and food and dining segments, according to DVA. Publications represented by writers would include Field & Stream, Better Homes & Gardens, Golf Magazine and Gourmet magazine, according to DVA.

"Our efforts now are geared toward generating specific feature stories on Bend," said Justin Yax, public relations director for DVA. "The familiarization tours would allow us to be more comprehensive." Additionally, DVA will pitch story ideas directly to publications that typically do not send writers to familiarization events, Yax said.

The three-quarter-page article in Outside magazine, which has a circulation of roughly 650,000, came as a result of collaboration between DVA, Bend writer Tim Neville, who's married to The Bulletin's city editor, and Outside's editorial staff, Yax said.

The article ranked Bend as the best place to live in the Pacific Northwest for cities with fewer than 100,000 people.

Anonymous said...

Local tourism providers will be asked to pick up writers' expenses in return for increased exposure in the articles that are expected to be written, he said.

[ City always paid in the past, this is suspicious ]

"We will ask our local lodging, dining and recreation providers to put their best food forward so that when these journalists come to town, they will have something to write about," LaPlaca said.

[ Bring out your daughters, these are k-mart suited out of town folk, that could improve the Bend gene-pool. ]

Bend Economy Man said...

Might as well mow down these elk and let Sebastian put up his fuckin fence. City Council almost certainly will. They allow anything that puts more than $10 in city coffers, and seem especially thrilled to fuck over Bend's current population in the process.

There's no reason to have an elk herd in the city limits anyway, except as a "view amenity." And that's really what those people are whining about. Elk are not an endangered species by far, and, all talk about overdevelopment aside, Oregon has tons of elk habitat.

Eventually those elk will trample dogs, maybe people if they get between cows and calves or during mating season.

Personally I'd rather pack the houses in within the city limits rather than have more sprawl. So I'm really with Randy Sebastian on this one, let him dense it up. Except for the gate. Gates are so stupid. His argument that this provides a psychological security blanket that makes the houses sell better is also stupid. I'm not a land use law expert, but how is "it'll make 'em sell better" grounds for an appeal? Especially when you're cruising on a number of other waivers already?

Anyway, don't interpret my comments to think I like Randy Sebastian, whom I consider a soulless Neanderthal.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Anyway, don't interpret my comments to think I like Randy Sebastian, whom I consider a soulless Neanderthal.

I'm sure Sebastian is not the first developer to ruin habitat, but it's his over the top hypocrisy that grinds my grits. He's so "GREEN". Right.

Anonymous said...

Randy is NO more hypocritical than ALL of Bend. The entire Juniper Ridge was GREEN. From the beginning, and now that its going to be actually implemented its going to be TIRE black with prison labor.

I think the city of bend, makes randy look like hypocrite amateur hour, and of course this is what enables him, because he can always call them on their own shit, and the shit in Bend deep, very deep.

The ONLY GREEN in Bend is the color of money. It's been this way so long, I can't even remember. When did the last 'environmentalist' leave Bend? I think about 1986, from my recollection, since then its been downhill.

BEM is partially right, the elk don't mean shit. They're a symbol, and like everything else in Bend, there will soon be a Park called "Elk Park", that has no elk, of course.

Randy used to say that his customers wanted gates, now it sounds like he wants gates. The fact is the red-necks are pissed about losing old hunting ground, and they love to go into these hood's and drive over everything in their 4by4's, thus its quite likely that Randy knows his development is going to be a ghost-town, and he's trying to protect it by gates, given he can't afford a Redmond Security Company, given he ain't "Brooks Security Service".

Timothy said...

When I look at a map of Oregon, sprawl is not something that concerns me. The state is 99% empty.

The real problem isn't sprawl--it's infrastructure. Transportation, sewer, etc. If people are going to keep moving here, by all means spread out, but pay for the infrastructure as you go.

Anonymous said...

Timothy said...

When I look at a map of Oregon, sprawl is not something that concerns me. The state is 99% empty.

*

Typical CALI REPUBLICAN - CRAP.

99% of America isn't covered with concrete, so fucking what, that gives you a license to fucking try to remedy the problem?


You CUNTS came up here from CALI, cuz its different and the first thing you do is look around and say, look all the empty land I can pave.

If you want parking lots, go back to fucking CALI.

Anonymous said...

Congrats on the bendbubble2 blog being dropped on Ben's hosing blog.


http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=3657#comments

Anonymous said...

oops.."housing"

Timothy said...

Note: I've never lived in California. I think you've made that mistake before.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Here are the PPSF medians for the Top 10 most listed neighborhoods in Bend (changes are from SEP 07):

PPSF
Neighborhood OCT SEP
Broken Top 283 280
DRW 182 187
RiverRim 216 214
Awbrey Butte 270 278
N Rim of Awbrey 489 536
Bend Park 232 236
NWX 258 241
Skyliner Summit 178 175
River Canyon Est 172 173
Pronghorn 629 631


PRICE MEDIANS FOR OCTOBER
Neighborhood OCT
Broken Top 781,450 (+0)
DRW 299,000 (+0)
RiverRim 489,000 (+9,646)
Awbrey Butte 1,190,000 (+95,000)
N Rim of Awbrey 2,274,500 (-220,000)
Bend Park 265,000 (+50)
NWX 479,900 (-20,100)
Skyliner Summit 516,950 (-7,950)
River Canyon Est 429,000 (-2,500)
Pronghorn 3,100,000 (+100,000)

4 UP, 4 DOWN, and 2 dead flat. This is BendBB's comments:

Things to note:
1. Reductions outnumber increases by approximately 31-to-1 (higher than the 29-to-1 ratio in September).
2. Approximately 53% of the active listings had price reductions (higher than the 38% in September).
3. Total % net change of -10.62% was higher than September indicating larger price reductions on average.


Here are median PPSF:
TOWN OCT SEP
Bend 209 211
Redmond 179 183
Sisters 247 247
Sunriver 283 284

And OCT median Prices
Bend 399,500 (+250)
Redmond 320,000 (-4,947)
Sisters 472,200 (-2,050)
Sunriver 459,900 (-17,100)

Sunriver took a hit on price medians, but since PPSF stayed even, that's probably just smaller listed home size.

All in all, pretty gat dang boring. N Rim of Awbrey got whacked for $220K, down from $2.5MM last month. Skyliner & NWX had reduced price medians, but higher PPSF, which means SQFT went down more than price.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

oops.."housing"

*

You were right the first time. In Bend we call it "HOSING".

Anonymous said...

All in all, pretty gat dang boring.

*

No Shit boring, Medians don't mean shit in Bend, especially up on Awbrey.

At this point the only thing interesting is sheer volume of YOY closing. ( When I say closing, I'm talking a REAL FUNDING )

joey in sisters said...

"we're going back to 1983 comfort levels."

Uhhh, so then does that mean population will dip back down to 30K? You're telling me that 50K people will be leaving Bend? I think your dellusional if you believe things settle back to 1983. That defies thermal dynamics. Perhaps you meant 1993?

Anonymous said...

Uhhh, so then does that mean population will dip back down to 30K?

*

Holy shit, we got one of those cali cunts that like to tell people what they said.

"COMFORT" doesn't have a fucking thing to do with population.

Go back to Sisters, and drink some more kool-aide.

If you weren't here in 83', you ain't worth explaining.

Anonymous said...

That defies thermal dynamics.

*

Thermo-dynamics is about 'entropy', it says that randomness increases, and the process is NOT reversible.

Sisters & Bend are about greedy monkeys. No thermo-dyanmics involved.

S = k log V,

k is a constant, S is entropy, and V is volume, lets take our little slut sister's as the volume,

Given UGB is constant, we can say that the Volume of Sisters hasn't changed, nor will it change.

PV=nRT, thus V=nRT/P, so

S = k log ( nRT/P )

Thus the entropy of Sisters would be proportional to People (N=nR) times Temperature (T) divided by pressure (P).

I didn't imply N, lets say sisters population remains constant. I'm not sure what temperature is, lets assume that the heat is turned up by external variables like interest rates, divorce, meth-use, ( Normal Sisters Shit ). Then there is pressure, like living ten to house, long ago predicted by IHTBYB, the cops, ...

I'm not sure where this is going, it seems very intuitive that as you increase stress, and force more monkeys into a cage, entropy of the system would increase.

What is your point again??

Using models like above you can calculate an 'S' ( entropy ) for a given Sisters model, then you could use that 'S' for other models to study fixed systems.

Personally I don't think you need to introduce thermodynamics to understand the bend-bubble, one only has to look out the window, and count how many lights are on at the neighborhood homes, and count the number of RE signs. If 50% of the lights are off at 7pm, and 10% of the homes on your street have RE signs or lock-boxes, then your fucked.

Anonymous said...

"we're going back to 1983 comfort levels."

*

1983 most people in Oregon weren't comfortable, these were troubled times, high unemployment, RE prices collapsed,

That said, in that day, folks could forage, burn wood for heat, shoot a deer for meat, homes were cheap,

Note that we haven't had a recession in Oregon since 1983, this BUST is our first correction in over 20 years.

Population then, the folks didn't have any where to go, most folks had been in Oregon a long time.

Today of course, perhaps if it get's nasty, given that cali's can't shoot deer, or chop their own firewood, and it costs so much to live now with internet access, and cable-tv, ... the calis might all shoot themselves in the head?

I really don't see population collapse, what I see is a spending collapse, which will create a ghost-town feel.

What will happen in slut sisters?

Everything is RE and hobby-farms. The burn-rate is so high for these people.

It's going to be ugly.

Since you introduced population, I do feel in the long term it will increase. Because this 'correction' isn't the end of the world, just a 5-10 year period of austerity, and then in a generation or +20 years we might see 2005 RE high prices again.

In summary, sarcasm, folks weren't comfy in 83', they were hard times. That said those can be the best of times.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

BendBulletin goes PORNOGRAPHIC!

Bend out to create a friendly culture for business

Its software production, solar power and energy conservation businesses are perking up, too, executives in those businesses said, pumping out growth spurts that, if anything, have been aided by slumping prices in the region’s formerly high-flying housing market.

Pumping out... spurts?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

In addition to pumping out spurts...

Entre Prises has been contemplating a move for years now as the cost of expanding a business in Bend has continued to rise, Meade said, but it felt caught in a bind — relocating its production lines to a cheaper locale seemed to make sense, but it didn’t want to lose its hard-to-replace sales force and executives who want to stay in Central Oregon for the lifestyle.

The decision was finally made, he said, to outsource as much of the manufacturing lines as possible, while relocating everything else to land the company bought a few years ago in Redmond.

“We can’t afford to make climbing walls in Aspen anymore,” Meade said. “It’s just not working.”

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

On top of that, even with a softening in housing prices, Bend is still the region’s most expensive city — a factor that has forced some employees to locate in less expensive towns and drive to their jobs in Bend, adding to their personal expenses and putting upward pressure on wages for the employers who have to compete for them.

Wow, did you hear that? High home prices directly raise the cost of doing business in Bend. Well I'll be damned...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Its software production, solar power and energy conservation businesses are perking up, too, executives in those businesses said, pumping out growth spurts that, if anything, have been aided by slumping prices in the region’s formerly high-flying housing market.

On top of that, even with a softening in housing prices, Bend is still the region’s most expensive city.

A regional transit system would help, Moseley said. Meanwhile, he said, the region has already lost its cost advantages over other areas in terms of land costs and housing expenses, and he’s not likely to try to ride out another real estate boom if one is on the way.


So companies have been AIDED by the slumping housing market, but we're still the most expensive housing market in Cent OR, and we've lost our cost advantage. I'm not sure you can say yet that Cent OR companies have been AIDED by Bends housing market... the entire piece is about how housing is shoving everyone out.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Bend out to create a friendly culture for business

Bend’s aeronautics industries are exploding with growth this year, executives told a group of city officials Wednesday.

Its software production, solar power and energy conservation businesses are perking up, too, executives in those businesses said, pumping out growth spurts that, if anything, have been aided by slumping prices in the region’s formerly high-flying housing market.

City Hall is trying to keep up, its leaders said.

It may be ready to start selling industrial land on its Juniper Ridge development as early as next spring, Special Projects Manager Ray Garzini told the 30 city officials and business executives who squeezed into the Deschutes Public Library’s administrative meeting room for Economic Development for Central Oregon’s annual Bend Business Roundtable.

It might also add 1,000 more acres to the 3,700-acre expansion it’s already proposing for the city’s growth area, Planning Manager Brian Shetterly said — all for “economic development,” but not all at Juniper Ridge.

On top of that, a 42-acre expansion is due to get under way in the next several months at Bend Municipal Airport east of town, Professional Air’s Brandon Wilcox said, in addition to the 20-acre expansion that Epic Air is planning to accommodate its own growth.

But is all that enough to keep up with the pace of change?

Maybe not.

Prodded by concerns over still-high housing and land costs, transportation problems, and a lack of clear public incentives to attract and keep growing businesses here, Mayor Bruce Abernethy, Councilwomen Chris Telfer and Linda Johnson, and Councilmen Bill Friedman and Mark Capell agreed to meet with executives more than once a year to hear about their problems.

They talked about hustling to determine what sort of incentive package, if any, they might need to put together in the short-term to make it easier for Cessna — or whoever buys Columbia Aircraft Manufacturing Corp. — to keep its assembly lines in Bend.

Longer term, they talked about setting up an “incentives toolbox” that the city could commit for future retention and recruitment projects.

And they pledged to find new leadership in City Hall that will, among other things, cut through some of the bureaucratic pressures businesses face when they try to expand.

Even if that means shaking things up.

‘A culture shift’

“We are due for a culture shift, to a customer-focused, customer-service-oriented structure, and we couldn’t get there,” Capell said, referring to the council’s decision to “make upper-management changes” last month. “So now we are going to.”

The council voted last month to fire Bend City Manager Andy Anderson.

The growth that is sweeping through some of the city’s key industries is happening quickly.

Epic Aircraft, an airplane manufacturer with about 150 local employees, plans to launch a national recruiting campaign soon to boost its numbers by about 1,000 over the next few years, General Manager Dave Hice said. It’s also planning to start construction on an expected 380,000-square-foot building expansion once the airport’s FAA-required environmental assessments are approved.

Precise Flight and its 33 employees have become the world’s largest suppliers of aircraft oxygen equipment, Vice President Scott Philliben said. The company also is selling a collection of new safety products to airlines and aircraft manufacturers around the world, and it’s about to fill its 10,000-square-foot production floor at the Bend airport.

Depending on which way it goes, the impending sale of Columbia Aircraft through a bankruptcy auction later this month could either supercharge the local aeronautics industry or retard it, Philliben said. It depends on whether its new buyer sinks money into the local operation and expands it well beyond its current 440-or-so employees, or whether a new buyer shuts the Bend plant down and moves it, he said.

Airport expansion plans, meanwhile, are moving ahead, Wilcox said. Professional Air, a charter carrier and a provider of fuel, flight instruction and maintenance, also is the lead developer on a 42-acre expansion that will start with new general aviation hangars and follow up with buildings designed to hold new aeronautics-related manufacturers, or expansion room for existing companies.

“Aviation in general is on a rapid, rapid growth rate right now,” Wilcox said. “It doesn’t really matter which area you’re in.”

Other businesses

Airport expansion plans may be on track, pending environmental reviews, but executives in the city’s other growing industries say they are scrambling for affordable space.

PV Powered, a maker of conversion equipment for solar power arrays, is hoping to add to its 44-employee staff and expand its production lines when it moves to a new building on Reed Market Road, Carina Peterson said. But the move will cost the company $100,000 to install bulked-up transformers and larger electrical service to the building.

GL Suite, a 47-employee software company, is building its own building in NorthWest Crossing, President Bill Moseley said, although it’s running into planning and engineering hurdles at City Hall “that sometimes make you feel like you’re a guinea pig for social engineering.”

Dent Instruments, a manufacturer of equipment used in energy-saving systems, is bursting out of its downtown offices, owner and founder Chris Dent said, but he hasn’t been able to find an affordable replacement in Bend for his Franklin Street building.

Structus Building Technologies did manage to find space and build a new building to house its 70 employees and their drywall-corner production floors, Dave Slavensky said, but not without a trip through the city’s building bureaucracies that he said felt unwelcoming.

But Entre Prises Climbing Walls, a worldwide seller of composite climbing walls, plans to complete its move to Redmond next year, Eric Meade said, after it outsources two of its four production lines to another region altogether.

Entre Prises has been contemplating a move for years now as the cost of expanding a business in Bend has continued to rise, Meade said, but it felt caught in a bind — relocating its production lines to a cheaper locale seemed to make sense, but it didn’t want to lose its hard-to-replace sales force and executives who want to stay in Central Oregon for the lifestyle.

The decision was finally made, he said, to outsource as much of the manufacturing lines as possible, while relocating everything else to land the company bought a few years ago in Redmond.

“We can’t afford to make climbing walls in Aspen anymore,” Meade said. “It’s just not working.”

In general, the collection of executives said, it’s fairly easy to attract technicians, executives and other relatively highly paid employees to Bend. But it’s tough to find a manufacturing work force that is educated enough and motivated enough to do effective work, Hice said, noting that he had to run through 550 workers to get to the relatively solid 150-person staff he has today, even though the company offers significant incentives for employees who go through further education and training.

“It is really hard,” Structus’ Slavensky agreed, “to find people who can pass a drug screen and use their heads to help us grow.”

On top of that, even with a softening in housing prices, Bend is still the region’s most expensive city — a factor that has forced some employees to locate in less expensive towns and drive to their jobs in Bend, adding to their personal expenses and putting upward pressure on wages for the employers who have to compete for them.

A regional transit system would help, Moseley said. Meanwhile, he said, the region has already lost its cost advantages over other areas in terms of land costs and housing expenses, and he’s not likely to try to ride out another real estate boom if one is on the way.

“Bend isn’t the only place,” Moseley said. “There are lots of communities who would like to bring high-tech jobs into their communities, that have nice, middling wages, and there are no shortage of incentives out there. It’s important for this place to remain competitive.”

Incentive competition can be particularly intense in the aeronautics industry, Bend Airport Manager Susan Palmeri said. Vero Beach, Fla., for example, is offering Piper Aircraft Inc. $36 million to keep its plant there.

Bend and the state won’t compete with the biggest incentive packages, EDCO Executive Director Roger Lee said, but the state has an array of tools at its disposal, ranging from direct payments to loan programs and tax incentives, based on the number of jobs a business will bring or retain. Options exist for the city to use, too, if it wants to help a business solve its relocation problems, he said.

Juniper Ridge

Land availability, in recent years, has been one of the city’s key shortcomings.

But Juniper Ridge, the city-owned stretch of development land on the north edge of town, may be about to edge out of its slumber, Garzini said, despite its ongoing complications.

The state Department of Transportation has agreed to give the city the go-ahead to begin development once the city comes up with a credible plan for paying for key interchange work at U.S. Highway 97 and Cooley Road, Garzini said. So he’s working to come up with a consortium of area development interests to help pay the — “pick a number” — possible $30 million cost of the work, he said, while working to iron out contract difficulties with the project’s own development team in time to get land sales moving.

“I’m still very optimistic that early next year we are going to be moving real estate in some fashion, but there is a little bit of a high-wire act for now,” Garzini said.

In addition, Shetterly said, the city’s long-range planners are in the early stages of trying to map out an additional 1,000 acres or so of potential commercial and industrial expansion lands to propose adding to the city’s urban growth boundary, following the City Council’s recent dictate to go for the largest expansion the state will allow. A commercial and industrial lands expansion also could be decoupled from the residential lands expansion and moved forward independently if controversies over the residential expansion threaten to delay it, he said.

For some, those moves won’t happen fast enough.

“We don’t want to move to Prineville or Redmond or out of state,” PV Powered’s Peterson said. “People moved here for a reason. We want to stay here. But we can’t wait for Juniper Ridge.”


This whole piece is basically confirmation of what I & others on this blog & its predecessor have been saying FOR 2 YEARS:

1) High housing prices HURT business & drive it out.
2) We need to MAX OUT the UGB.
3) Bend will shrivel up & die unless BUSINESS HAS AN INCENTIVE TO STAY.

Every single executive at this meeting singled out HIGH HOUSING COSTS as The Root Cause of their most pressing problem: HIRING. Can't hire anyone at $8/hr with house medians at $350K+. Just ain't gonna happen. And with no new hires, there's no growth, and with no growth, this place will implode.

I don't know if Columbia Airs' bankruptcy is going to "supercharge" anything. Columbia Air staying is the status quo, and the status quo doesn't supercharge anything. Columbia Air only has the potential to NEGATIVELY impact the local economy; if it stays it's going to be scaled way down.

It's a decent piece that acknowledges the fact that excessively high home prices, without any supporting industry IS NOT GOOD. Also seems City Council is waking up to the fact that the straggling UGB is THE PROBLEM that they can use to address the problem. Too little, too late... but at least they've figured out the problem & are on the right path. And it only took 2 years for them to figure it out.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

So he’s working to come up with a consortium of area development interests to help pay the — “pick a number” — possible $30 million cost of the work...

Gotta love that... "pick a number".

And just look at that $30 mill. Who's going to pay? Companies are actually threatening to MOVE AWAY unless we GIVE THEM MONEY. That $30 mill sounds like a heinous boondoggle waiting to happen. Outfits like Knife River (Hap Taylor?) are going to make out like bandits on this town. Probably drive us into Bankruptcy. Should have upped the SDC's 5 years ago. Now we're screwed.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

straggling UGB

uhhhh.. strangling UGB

Anonymous said...

“It is really hard,” Structus’ Slavensky agreed, “to find people who can pass a drug screen and use their heads to help us grow.”

*

Ah, the beauty of prisons, all employees, in theory are drug free. Manufacturing Consent, keep it up BULL.

Anonymous said...

Longer term, they talked about setting up an “incentives toolbox” that the city could commit for future retention and recruitment projects.

*

This one is my Favorite the Bend/BULL toolbox, provider to every industry leader.
1.) Condoms
2.) KY-Jelly
3.) Handy-Wipes
4.) Free Bulletin Subscription

Put the 'toolbox' into the hands of those connected, and the incentives will flow. Yes, 'incentives', all these hustlers have businesses, that cannot make it in the isolated desert, so they beg for tax exemption, deferral, and city financed infrastructure. Remember NAZISM ( National Socialism ) is when Business & Government go to bed together, you don't have any Better potential for PURE NAZISM, than Bend, Oregon.

A NOTE to all Bend Businessmen, if you can't sell a product without a government handout, then just get out of business and go on welfare, and get out of the way of businessmen that don't have to beg for taxpayer dollars.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

“It is really hard,” Structus’ Slavensky agreed, “to find people who can pass a drug screen and use their heads to help us grow.”

Translation: Bend Oregon is full of drug using IDIOTS.

Anonymous said...

3) Bend will shrivel up & die unless BUSINESS HAS AN INCENTIVE TO STAY.

*

This is just BAIT&SWITCH.

Incentive is a NAZI code-word for tax exemption, the money has to come from somewhere, thus is will come from johnny two-bit taxpayer.

Once these 'business-men' cunts get their way, then the masses of Bend will be the one SCREAMING for relief.

All that's going to happen here is that Business will pay NO TAX, NO cost of infrastructure, and their employees will pick up the bill. Most like their employees will live in Redmond or an un-incorporated area, and thus the existing people in Bend will finance the corporate beggars.

Somebody RECALL the cunts running this city QUICK.

Anonymous said...

UGB is THE PROBLEM that they can use to address the problem.

*

If you don't want UGB then go back to CALI and cover everything thing with asphalt.

This is Oregon, UGB has been around 35 years, and it aint' going away.

HOMER your no different than the cunts begging for incentives, you can BEG for a UGB removal all you wish, but the State run's the show.

Bend is just a little fucking desert town. Composed 99% of beggars. Pretty fucking sad.

The reason that land in the city-limits sky-rocketed is because of speculation. That is over, its ALL going to become affordable.

Regarding the $7/hr problem, its ALWAYS BEEN THAT WAY FOR A MILLION YEARS IN BEND. All the people WHO worked at Jakes truck stop, drove up from LA-PINES for work. This is NOT a fucking revelation. Bend hasn't been a working man's town since the 1960's.

Bend is an old washed up logging town, without logs.

The ONLY thing that will work is the Juniper Ridge Prison, and convict labor for Les Schwab, and anyone else that wants cheap, captive, drug-free labor. This is the ONLY solution to making Bend competitive with China.

Anonymous said...

“It is really hard,” Structus’ Slavensky agreed, “to find people who can pass a drug screen and use their heads to help us grow.”

Translation: Bend Oregon is full of drug using IDIOTS.

*

The drug is really a code-word, we have addressed it before, its called service, I don't know how many times I have walked out of places in Bend, because the folks at the door don't even lift their head.

For over TWO generations Bend is-was NOT a working class town, todays its the spawn of HELOC rich. Personally It's my opinion that the 'METH' crisis is manufactured by the SORE, ... Nobody wants to hire these white-trash native spawn. Once they're all rounded up and rolled into the prison, they can be placed in 'lock-up' until they develop the right 'attitude', thats why all prison labor is happy.

In Bend all the spawn, can live home forever, they don't have to work.

It's what Hollern calls "non-real people, non-real children, no jobs", this is fucking Bend, did it come this way from the drug problem? hell no

Drugs are simply a symptom of the malaise.

The fact is the work-force is BEND will NEVER become competitive until it becomes locked-up. This is well understood by policy makers.

Anonymous said...

“It is really hard,” Structus’ Slavensky agreed, “to find people who can pass a drug screen and use their heads to help us grow.”

Translation: Bend Oregon is full of drug using IDIOTS.


*

I think the second part is MORE telling, more where my theory lays.
"People who can use their heads".

Todays Bend is hang out at Drake Park, hang out at home playing computer games, ... Why should kids work? They know that they'll never have the opportunity their parents had. People ain't going to use their heads, because they don't need to, and the 'head' is a muscle, most of the folks have allowed it to atrophy, and its NOT coming back.

There is NO solution, a real nasty depression, might knock the stupidity out of a lot of people. Even the prison deal as is well documented doesn't fix the long term problem, its just graduate school for criminals.

Bend is what it is, two generations of self centered calis, that have breeded and created a huge 'surplus population'. Solution? A fucking War, and send them off, let them find land-mines by foot. This is how its historically been solved this is NOT a new problem.

The area work-force is FUCKED, even if a decent company came to town, YOU ALL KNOW WHAT I KNOW, and this is they would bring in the people for the good jobs from the outside.

Bend/Redmond is about security guards, and cops. Folks that sit on their ass. This is what we do best in Deschutes County. Oh, yea there's the hard-working construction workers, but they'll be gone very soon.

Anonymous said...

And they pledged to find new leadership in City Hall that will, among other things, cut through some of the bureaucratic pressures businesses face when they try to expand.

*

Yeh, just let Garzini run Bend like a business, trouble is the only kind of business Garzini has ever been in is a Government subsidizend biz, thus his whole basis of business is feeding at the taxpayer pig trough, but don't worry because he's going to expedite biz-shit in Bend with 'incentives', which in the biz we call cherry-picking. Favorites of Garzini will get tax exmemptions, and other's not.

The FACT is Biz is leaving central-oregon, because its OVER, the get rich quick is OVER, I think you all need to look closely at what's going on here. They ALL came here to participate in the infinite BOOM, and NOW its over, and the last to leave is going to get stuck with a HUGE fucking bill.

This is the real reason the city is scared to shit, and that business is leaving Bend.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

HOMER your no different than the cunts begging for incentives...

Wow, that's touching. You hear that BEM, I am also a cunt. Brings a tear to my eye...

From Lisa Lampanelli:

A little girl & little boy are taking a bath together. The little boy asks, "Daddy, what's that between my sisters legs?". The daddy says, "Son, that's where God hit her with the Golden Ax". The little boy says, "Wow. He's got good aim. He got her right in the cunt."

Not so much a joke as it is an assault on all that's decent in The World.

Anonymous said...

They ALL came here to participate in the infinite BOOM, and NOW its over, and the last to leave is going to get stuck with a HUGE fucking bill.

This is the real reason the city is scared to shit, and that business is leaving Bend.

*

The fact is many of our existing businesses today in Bend got incentives in the first place. Today they want to get the hell out. Rather than breaking a 'promise' its better to cover your ass and say "Its not working out".

The fact is, and we have said it a 10,000 times here, you cannot compete in Central Oregon. A lot of stupid CEO's moved here during the boom, and now they're FUCKED.

Rather than BLAME themselves, for bad decisions, they collectively blame Bend. Like a DODO BIRD didn't know that running a biz here will cost you +2X that which your competition pays. Amenity vultures, ... Lifestyle, ... It doesnt' pay the bills.

Anonymous said...

Wow, that's touching. You hear that BEM, I am also a cunt. Brings a tear to my eye...

*

There's a river of tears flowing in Bend.

Crocodile Tears.

Anonymous said...

Manufacturing sales are plummeting. Now think about those poor bastards in Bend trying to run a non-profitable business when times are good. What do the do? They do what any good NAZI would do, they beg government for incentives: Cash, Deferrals, Exemptions, ...

***
Manufacturing slows to a crawl in October
ISM index falls for 4th straight month to 50.9%
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:38 AM ET Nov 1, 2007
PrintPrint EmailE-mail Subscribe to RSSSubscribe to RSS DisableDisable Live Quotes
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. manufacturing sector was barely growing in October, burdened by the slowdown in housing and credit, according to the Institute for Supply Management index released Thursday.

Anonymous said...

Wow, that's touching. You hear that BEM, I am also a cunt. Brings a tear to my eye...

*

It's the Nietszchean thing, those that hurt our feelings make us strong.

Anonymous said...

US economy crisis in numbers

$1.43 value of dollar against the euro on 26 October - an all-time low

4.7% unemployment rate, the highest in over a year

1.5 million number of families who may lose their homes as a result of the crisis

23.3% drop in house sales compared to last year - sales hit a record low

6% average drop in house prices over the past six months, the worst housing slump in 16 years

$2.3bn quarterly loss at Merrill Lynch, the biggest loss in its 93-year history

93% drop in quarterly profits at Bank of America's corporate and investment banking division

Anonymous said...

I love fucking Bend.

1.) The economy is collapsing, RE YOY sales are down.

2.) Stupid CEO's moved to Bend, and now they're bleeding to death.

3.) Builders will ALL go bankrupt.

The fault? Its the fucking fault of the city for not having 'incentives'. What the HELL is paying less than 20% of of actual on Infrastructure Cost, if NOT an incentive to FUCKING BUILD.

The Fault? Its UGB. That's why nobody can make money in Bend.

The Fault? Its that Juniper Ridge isn't online, if only JR was online then homes would still be appreciating 30%/yr.

BEND IS FULL OF SHIT, THE BULL IS FULL OF SHIT. CEO BROGMAN ( Les Schwab ), CEO HOLLERN ( Brooks ), and CEO Sebastian ( Renaissance ); The have all created a world of fucking SHIT in this town.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

It's the Nietszchean thing, those that hurt our feelings make us strong.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=GUGOjZRyb_4

Anonymous said...

Hey Cunt's Tell Us What You Really Think!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

What the HELL is paying less than 20% of of actual on Infrastructure Cost, if NOT an incentive to FUCKING BUILD.


This is true....

Anonymous said...

What the HELL is paying less than 20% of of actual on Infrastructure Cost, if NOT an incentive to FUCKING BUILD.


This is true....

*

To date in this most Recent BOOM, we're in the HOLE over a billion dollars in back infrastructure costs in Bend.

http://bendinfrastructurefirst.com/

Thus the ENTIRE PROFIT made by Brooks, & Renaissance came as a loan from the Bend Tax-Payer. The trouble is this loan never has to be paid back, nor is there interest, tax, ... Nuttin, Nada, ...


A incentive, ONLY a mother could love.

I think the reason today the BULL is pushing 'incentives' is that this is the city that has ALREADY given away BILLIONS of dollars of future revenue.

The bleeding pathetic CEO's in Bend like Brogman ( Les Schwab ) cannot lose by begging for MORE incentives as the city has in the past shown complete fucking insanity towards the future. As noted by homer a few weeks ago, Bend is town of grifters, and in Bend Grifting PAYS, and it PAYS big.

The bitches and bastards running Bend, MUST provide incentives to keep their royal arses out of prison. Thus this town is going to get scrapped to the bone.

http://bendinfrastructurefirst.com/

Anonymous said...

No Orgies in the Paper (bend)
Written by Jesse Kliewer
Wednesday, 31 October 2007
I can’t believe my eyes. I just want you to know how the analogy of an “ORGY” in a movie picture painted a disgusting and empty precedent.

How would a parent feel when a 10-year-old reads your paper and asks, “What’s an orgy?” We need to be responsible for setting an example for our future! Kids! Please address this, we need to do the right thing and be respectful and loving to one another. Please.

Sincerely,

Jesse Kliewer

***

Burning Man said:
This is Bend's next event. Courtesy of The Source, aka Aarown Switzer.

We setup tents in Drake Park, and have 24/7 orgy's, this will attract Bay Area Cali's, and everyday in Bend will be just like Burning Man.

Excellent. 30%/yr annual Real Estate will return. Thousand's of Green tortoise buses will descend on Bend.

The cost is literally nothing the city will pay for the tents. We can use the VCB/DVA budget to feed all the hungry folks. The City can also pay for 'protection', and follow up medical.

It's a win-win.

Thanks Aaron, you did it again, you saved Bend.

Anonymous said...

America is imploding, thanks to the Bush administration and the rampant Republican corruption. The funniest thing is that voting Bush is having the exact opposite effect the Bush voters thought it would. Instead of Bush defending America, its values, their wallets etc, he's utterly destroyed them. It's like death in slow motion. If we attack Iran, the problems will worsten. And this will actually be good for the USA. As we lose our economic clout, our superpower status will go with it. Widespread poverty and deprivation will finally end the consumerist nightmare that America has become. Thanks Bush and Bush voters! You've accomplished what no stupid liberal ever could, you've destroyed the American status quo, the American consumer. You've enthroned everything you claim to hate. What a show, quit worrying and just watch it unfold..

Anonymous said...

How many ways can you say "bend is fucked?" READ BELOW $125 OIL.

Homer, do you remember a few years ago a website called 'fuckedcomany.com'? I think this site should become 'fuckedcity.com'.

DVA, VCB, you just need incentives for those RV's to come to Oregon, How about reimbursing fuel costs??
***
Oil Traders Raise Bets on $125 Crude as Options Jump (Update3)

By Nesa Subrahmaniyan and Wai Meng Lee
Enlarge Image/Details

Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Oil traders are increasing bets that crude will reach $125 a barrel this year because of record world demand and threats to supplies from the Middle East and Nigeria.

Anonymous said...

All Bend needs to permanently instill the excitement and glory of housing nirvana is a city council mandate establishing a full cadre of sign spinners on each and every corner. After all, what could be more infectious than the enthusiasm generated by the likes of:

http://tinyurl.com/26w9f9

No way to escape that kind of spend-money-you-don't-have (and leverage it, too!) infection. Even lenders couldn't resist - more stringent standards be damned!

Spinners should also become a legally required presence at potential industrial parks, to provide a sure-fire, can't miss recruiting tool for luring global industrial titans into the area. Microsoft, Boeing, Honda, Toyota, Komatsu, Posco - the competition to "Be Your Best in Bend" would be intense. Sovereign investment funds would also open their coffers, hypnotized by the magic of Bend's unique Bendosity.

All of this, of course, would permanently propel Bend real estate prices into the higher plane of existence they so richly deserve.

Realtards currently seeing a pause in their transactional activity should seriously consider going to sign spinning school, just in case the pause lasts another month or two. Gotta get prepared before the next massive upleg starts!

Anonymous said...

The housing recession, now in its third year

Note, the below carefully. Here is Bloomberg saying the Housing Recession started "THREE YEARS AGO", shit a year ago we were called DORKS, now its official, we have been in an imploded bubble for three years! I say it pure politics. Note there is a great story today about how Greenspan is saying Clinton is the greatest prez because he understood government spending, and Dubya is-was the worst. Duncan noted two days ago that NPR said it started two years ago, we'll probably hear in a few days that THERE NEVER WAS A BUBBLE. TYPICAL LAWYER SHIT - NEVER HAPPENED.
...................
U.S. Economy: Manufacturing, Consumer Spending Slow (Update1)

By Shobhana Chandra and Courtney Schlisserman

Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy is cooling after a surge in the third quarter, according to the latest reports on manufacturing and consumer spending that back the Federal Reserve's move yesterday to cut interest rates.

The Institute for Supply Management's factory index fell to 50.9 in October, the lowest in seven months, from 52 in September and less than economists anticipated. Americans increased spending 0.3 percent in September, the Commerce Department said today in Washington, also less than forecast.

``The reports we saw today are generally consistent with a slowing economy,'' said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York, who accurately predicted the spending gain. ``Consumer spending left the third quarter without a huge amount of momentum.''

The housing recession, now in its third year, is eroding demand for construction equipment, furniture and appliances, economists said. Overseas growth and a weaker dollar are boosting exports at firms including DuPont Co. and Agco Corp., helping avert a broader downturn.

Anonymous said...

Spinners should also become a legally required presence at potential industrial parks

**

I'm confused a 'spinner' is a little lady who sits on your lap, and you spin her on your member.

I agree with we had spinners on every corner OUR TOURISM would explode, but Aaron Switzer at the SORE, is already promoting Orgy's at Drake Park.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

CACB just cracked to new 52 week lows at $17.84, down 7% on the day...

Anonymous said...

Oil will hit $200 after we attack Iran. Think up creative uses for those SUVs and over sized trucks. Get ready for food prices to double. Sell that flat screen TV now.

Anonymous said...

Bush administration and the rampant Republican corruption. The funniest thing is that voting Bush is having the exact opposite effect the Bush voters thought it would

*

Not FUNNY, most serious 'conspiracy theorists' say that the WHOLE bubble has been planned all along.

Simply put, BK everyone, re-install debtors prison, throw them all in the pokey, and pay them $1.20/hr, and all of a sudden USA is competitive again. Its actually a very well deserved theory.

The DUBYA's want to BK USA to terminate ALL entitlements, this has been planned since the 1980's under RAYGUN.

Lastly NEVER fucking forget.


A republican steals your money. A democrat gets you in a WAR. - HL MENCKEN 1920's


When Hillary ( cheney in drag ) is Prez, she's going to KILL more arabs for Israel than DUBYA.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

America is imploding, thanks to the Bush administration and the rampant Republican corruption. The funniest thing is that voting Bush is having the exact opposite effect the Bush voters thought it would. Instead of Bush defending America, its values, their wallets etc, he's utterly destroyed them. It's like death in slow motion. If we attack Iran, the problems will worsten. And this will actually be good for the USA. As we lose our economic clout, our superpower status will go with it. Widespread poverty and deprivation will finally end the consumerist nightmare that America has become. Thanks Bush and Bush voters! You've accomplished what no stupid liberal ever could, you've destroyed the American status quo, the American consumer. You've enthroned everything you claim to hate. What a show, quit worrying and just watch it unfold..

Also... unfortunately true.

Anonymous said...

Simply put, BK everyone, re-install debtors prison, throw them all in the pokey, and pay them $1.20/hr, and all of a sudden USA is competitive again. Its actually a very well deserved theory.

It costs about 100K per year for every prisoner, that is the problem with this theory.

When Hillary ( cheney in drag ) is Prez, she's going to KILL more arabs for Israel than DUBYA.

Correct, she won't be able to stop it even it was her intention. But none of the other candidates will either. I doubt any of them can even if it was their intention. It does not matter who is elected. Change is going to come thru absolute necessity.

Anonymous said...

A republican steals your money. A democrat gets you in a WAR. - HL MENCKEN 1920's

*

We're FUCKED, we're now going to go clinton-dubya-clinton-dubya,... into perpetuity.

Clinton was the best republican the repub's ever had ( naft, gatt, ... ), dubya was the best democrat ( corp welfare:halliburton, blackwater, bechtel,... ), the dem's ever had.

"There is NO difference between the party's, never has been", Even Ross Perot ten years ago said "You would hear the sucking sound", yeh, you'll be hearing it very soon.

None of this shit is NEW, this is why O'Neal is getting $160M for fucking Merrill, ALL these guys bought homes in Spain, France, Italy years ago. USA has long been targetted by world government to be one large prison, and also a breed ground for warriors. Keep your passport current, and own land abroad, OR ELSE.

Anonymous said...

It costs about 100K per year for every prisoner, that is the problem with this theory.

*

That's BULLSHIT. Those are COMFY prisons, the FUTURE is going to be like US WWII internment camps.

Anonymous said...

When Hillary ( cheney in drag ) is Prez, she's going to KILL more arabs for Israel than DUBYA.

Correct, she won't be able to stop it even it was her intention. But none of the other candidates will either.

*

FUCK YOU , HILLARY VOTED JUST RECENTLY TO BOMB IRAN. OBAMA VOTED AGAINST IT - A DOUBLE FUCK YOU.

HILLARY IS THE FUCKING PROBLEM.

APOLOGIST FOR HILLARY, SHE JUST GOES ALONG WITH WHAT AIPAC SAYS.

Anonymous said...

HILLARY VOTED JUST RECENTLY TO BOMB IRAN. OBAMA VOTED AGAINST IT

Obama will never be elected. We'll get to choose between Hillary and Guiliani, both the same beast. No politician is going to salvage this mess. This ship is going down, so you might as well enjoy the ride. If you choose to spend it in an endless bitch and blame session, be my guest. Whatever floats your boat (for a little longer).

Anonymous said...

Obama will never be elected. We'll get to choose between Hillary and Guiliani, both the same beast

*

Well I agree with cognitive dissonance. Even the NRA came out two years ago, and said it was going to be GIVEN to Guiliani ( REPUB NOM ), in spite of the fact he's one of the biggest gun grabbers in the country. Probably bigger than hilly-pooh.

Somebody today posted how weird it is that repub's vote for that which destroys their so called 'values'. The fact is the VERY-RICH, and especially in Bend, don't trust nobody with a gun.

This election going to be great, a choice between two NEW-YAWK insiders, the folks that caused the problem, are going to get their own to fix the problem.

Who says this isn't all fucking planned??

p.s. regarding the 'bitching' FUCK-YOU, why are you here?
Bitching in Bend is like Garzini & Kuratek, aka peaches and cream.

Pedro in Bend said...

If you choose to spend it in an endless bitch and blame session, be my guest.



It's essential that someone document the RE implosion, long after we're gone, somebody is going to have a great laugh about how fucking stupid rich white folk are in Bend.

Anonymous said...

Somebody today posted how weird it is that repub's vote for that which destroys their so called 'values'.

*

Repuby values are like Demy values, its basically like calling Sebastian 'green'. The only value that most Americans have in common is that their jealous of Michael Jackson.

What you sow, so shall ye reap. The whole world relishes this moment.

Like Malcolm-x said long ago "USA democracy is hypocrisy".

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

CACB $17.35 -$1.89 9.82%

Woof... brutal day for CACB. But after hours trading prints +$1.89!

After Hours Trading
11/1/2007 5:17:00 PM Last:
19.24 Change:
+1.89 Volume:
27,003


That seems too much like a coincidence.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

That after-market print quote on Bigcharts for +$1.89 on CACB seems wrong. It was down $1.89 during regular trading, plus I'm not seeing any sort of after hours mega-rally in anything, banks included. I think that near 10% decline in CACB is dead real. Man, that's HUGE!

Anonymous said...

CACB $17.35 -$1.89 9.82%

Woof... brutal day for CACB. But after hours trading prints +$1.89!

*

It can't go any lower.

Anonymous said...

Do you remember a few months ago when CACB announced they were going to buy-back their own shares??

Its thinly traded, I HIGHLY suspect, is that after-hours, they bought back their own, shares so that todays loss doesn't get recorded, or tomorrow some idiot sees this as a BUY sign.

Who else but CACB would try to catch a falling knife?

NOBODY

The fact that the after hour is the same as the loss, is highly suspicious as a computer glitch, but if there was a LARGE block buyer after hours, I'm sure it was CACB.

Anonymous said...

Homer, SELL SELL, before its too late, they're paying top dollar for bubble sites....

****

Not All Is Gloomy in Real Estate: A Blog Network Attracts Capital


Article Tools Sponsored By
By DAN MITCHELL
Published: October 30, 2007

The residential real estate market may be troubled, but property-focused Web sites are still attracting visitors and investors.

Curbed.com, a popular real estate blog network with sites in New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles, has obtained $1.5 million in financing to expand into new cities and add staff members. According to Lockhart Steele, the network’s publisher, traffic is growing 10 percent a month and the site is drawing national advertisers.

Nick Denton, Mr. Steele’s boss when he was managing editor of the Gawker Media blog network, and Zach Nelson, chief executive of NetSuite, a maker of business software, are among the individual investors. Gawker Media also invested.

In some respects, sites like Curbed are insulated from the woes of the real estate market in a way that traditional sites may not be. “We’re not just about real estate,” Mr. Steele said. “People come to the site to talk about their neighborhoods and about life in the city.” This wide focus has helped Curbed draw advertisers like American Express and Volkswagen, Mr. Steele said.

At greater potential risk are national-focused sites like Zillow.com and Realtor.com that depend on an active market of buyers and sellers to thrive. Nonetheless, Zillow, which estimates home values, last month obtained $30 million in its latest round of financing, bringing the total to $87 million for the site, which was started less than two years ago. And its traffic in the third quarter was 20 percent higher than in the period a year earlier, according to Spencer Rascoff, Zillow’s vice president for marketing and chief financial officer.

It has also begun posting home listings provided by brokerage firms. The first of these to participate is ERA.

“The housing slowdown has actually increased people’s appetite and interest,” Mr. Rascoff said. “In a crazy market like this, both buyers and sellers are trying to get an edge.”

Advertising-supported sites seem, at least for now, to be on safer ground than those that rely heavily on “showcase listings” that sellers pay for.

“Any site that charges fees to brokers will be hurt the most,” said Steve Murray, editor of the newsletter Real Trends. Realtor.com, run by the National Association of Realtors, remains the top real estate destination on the Web, with more than five million unique visitors a month — down only slightly in the last six months, according to Nielsen/NetRatings. If the downturn lasts long enough, “everyone suffers,” said Brad Inman, founder and publisher of the real estate news service Inman News. During bad times, “there’s always an uptick first” in real estate advertising, he said. “Nobody’s free of the dark shadow of a down market.”

Still, Mr. Inman was one of the lead investors of Curbed.com, in part because Curbed “is not a direct real estate play,” he said. “I didn’t even think of it in context of the market.”

Anonymous said...

Homer,

A great article comparing NASDAQ and BUILDER's stock to date.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/51969-revisiting-the-homebuilders-a-comparison-of-bubbles

Nasdaq bubble of the late 90s and the Homebuilder bubble of the 2000s. The chart below highlights the performance of the two from the start of their enormous gains to their eventual peaks, and back down to their lows again.

As shown, the S&P 1500 Homebuilder index actually registered more gains than the Nasdaq at its peak, but the comparable time frame (both around 2,000 days) of the two rises is eerily similar. The bursting of the Nasdaq bubble lasted 943 days with declines of 78.29%. The current bursting of the Homebuilder bubble has lasted 831 days with declines of 67%. While the declines have already been severe, for the Homebuilder index to decline to the low levels that the Nasdaq reached, it would have to go down another 34% from here.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/51969-revisiting-the-homebuilders-a-comparison-of-bubbles

And check the Price/Book values on homebuilders, most are below 1.0. That's cuz home builders are not considered "proper" companies... they are "projects" that have a start, middle, and end. They almost all are around for only 1 cycle, and then they go bust. Rarely do they last longer.

Anonymous said...

BENDBB is unmasked. This is his ugly end, but you get the picture.

Anonymous said...

BendBB is unmasked. This is his good looking end, but you all already knew this.

Anonymous said...

The Elk that raped Randy Sebastian.

Remember you saw it here first on Bendbubble2!

http://www.elkhornllamas-leifline.com/sales2.html

Timmy said...


http://seekingalpha.com/article/51969-revisiting-the-homebuilders-a-comparison-of-bubbles

They almost all are around for only 1 cycle, and then they go bust. Rarely do they last longer.

Everyone should read this, the graphs are awesome. Homer talks all the time about the Nasdaq 'DOT-COM' bubble, but this article points out the the builder's stocks have actually been more insane. Like the article the other day said "New Home Building is Dead".

Nobody is going to invest their money in Home Building for a long time.



That's probably why they have 100's of LLC's in Bend. They know they got to protect their assets.

Anonymous said...

There is a story in the Bulletin today that Garzini has offered Kuratek a buyout package. Can someone post it.

Anonymous said...

StreetInsider.com - Cascade Bancorp (CACB) Approves 5% Stock ...
Cascade Bancorp (CACB) Approves 5% Stock Buyback Plan 08-13-2007 01:04:44 PM ... First Horizon (FHN) Declares Dividend, Announces 7.5M Share Buyback ...

***

Above is for the way back machine, so you can ALL remember that CACB would be buying back their stock on major dips.

Take a look at Washington Mutual (WM), its completely in sync with CACB. Albeit worse.

Anonymous said...

yep, it was a computer glitch open on CACB was 17.44.

Note todays WSJ is full of bad news, front page start. To date ...

Bank stocks down -20%
MTG bonds down -70%
DJIA up +10%

Something is going to correct soon, especially that banks are sitting on all these bonds that are worth far less than 30% of mark. The DJIA is completely insane.

The basis of today is banks are not going to be loaning money.

*

Financial, Banking, ... all collapsing like NASDAQ. BIG stock brokers are refusing to mark-to-market, they'll soon have to. Then Banks and DJIA will be down -70% or better just like the A BX.

Note the ABX is a conservative number the reality is much worse.

The entire USA financial system will soon mark-to-market, e.g. they'll have to show what its really worth in todays dollars.

Another thing that was real interesting in yesterdays WSJ, was the editorial attack on Bernanke, they're calling the dollar the 'bernanke', and just a few weeks ago begging for rate reduction, now of course they're saying he's stupid it drop rates, and make the dollar worthless.

There's some short term cheap money going on so the 'smart set' can get the low rates while they can, expect 20% rates just like the 1970's very soon to get the dollar back, and recover foreign investment.

WSJ is finally waking up to the fact that if something is NOT done soon, the dollar will no longer be the currency of choice by the 'black market'. Ergo, what good is printing dollars if you can't buy drugs and pussy in Thailand? This wakeup call will even get the politicians off their ass.

Anonymous said...

Didn't someone say it couldn't go any lower?

Cascade Bancorp (CACB)
NCM
Comprehensive Quote:
11/02/07 10:40 AM EDT
Last
16.80
Change
-0.55
% Change
-3.17%
Volume
80,190

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