Monday, October 15, 2007

Juniper Ridge: How Bend City Council will turn $15 billion into Bankruptcy

Lordy, is there anything the Simpsons can't teach us?

Homer
: Well, what do you think?
Editor: This is a joke, right? I mean this is the stupidest thing I've ever read!
Homer: What's wrong with it?
Editor: You keep using words like "Pasghetti" and "Momatoes" You make numerous threatening references to the UN and at the end you repeat the words "Screw Flanders" over and over again.

Welp, looks like we've reached The Homer-Food Critic Moment: That point in time where BendBust's almost incomprehensible rants start to have a quite disturbing foreshadowing of what comes to pass. Many, including me, BEM, Duncan (especially Duncan), and Timmy (but especially Timmy) have borne the brunt of BilboBusters "Screw Flanders" tirades. And Juniper Ridge, Ray Kuratek, condo developers in general, and many, MANY others have acted as the quasi-relevant "Pasghetti" and "Momatoes". But BendBust, after a rusty, expletive-laden start (and middle), is starting to get his props from those he might bust in the scrote:

BendBust: Why is it that of ALL the cunts on the blog board, not a fucking one will read the M49 text but timmy?
Timmy: Finally, something almost less than disdain. I grovel.

Duncan: Bendbust is like Columbus, he may have found the wrong continent, but he found something interesting anyway...
...I went to Brooks Resources website, and Bendbust may be more on to something that I thought.

Thing about bendbust, everytime you think he's exaggerating, come to find out he not far off the mark.

Sure, there is still the odd "Screw Flanders" tirade against those who would defend him:

Buster: BEM,
I don't know who is MORE intellectually lazy YOU or HBM.


BEM: Fuck man! Gimme a break!

(BEM probably experiencing cruel sense of irony: As I bear BilboBust as frothing at the mouth raving lunatic in this blog... so did he bear me. Possibly Cats In The Cradle music is appropriate here...)

Paul-doh say long time ago young Grasshoppers:

'Twat sounds like ranting
Nothing spewed but Screw Flanders

Shows glimmer of truth


And if you've been casually skimming this blog for any period, you've noticed that one of Bilbo's favorite topics is the lambasting of Juniper Ridge. He even made a post request:
IHTBYB - You really should do a cover blog for next sunday on JR, things are really starting to hit the fan.

I'll admit, my first reaction to this was a Big Yawn. Sort of like the whole Broken Top drama: really doesn't seem to involve me, and I'm not really sure of the relevance. But Buster seems adamant about its importance, and that crazy bastard does seem to have insights buried in the nooks & crannies of his Screw Flanders tirades, so I looked into it. There are two main sources that I looked at:

DoJuniperRidgeRight.com

Who's behind Juniper Ridge and why you need to know

I could have written an EXTRAORDINARILY long, detailed, and QUITE UNFLATTERING post on this topic. But I would simply be repeating much of what is in these 2 documents. Buster alleges that BEM himself wrote the Bend Living piece, something I have no proof of. But it extremely well-written by someone who knows what the hell is going on, so draw your own conclusions. Here is a short Paul-doh summary, for what it's worth:

Juniper Ridge is 1,500ac run of scrub that passed from the Federales to Deschutes county in a land swap back in the day, and then from the county to the City of Bend:

In November 1990 the county transferred the land to the City for $1.00. The transfer stipulated that “a master development plan be formulated” and the “plan be adopted by the City pursuant to an open public process and public hearings and that the plan address the needs of the city and the concerns of the public”.

After the requisite years of wanking off, Bend City butt-munkees.. err, Councilors, decided to include 500ac in the Bend Urban Area:

Following land use law and procedures, the state in 2004 allowed 504 acres to be included in the Bend Urban Area, specifically due to the need for industrial land, and the city then annexed it in 2005. The state indicated it should be a sufficient industrial supply for 20 years.

Remember these 2 things: The land was "given" to the City almost COMPLETELY for industrial use, and maybe other mixed development use. THAT'S ALL. It is also STATE LAW that the city provide for 20 YEARS supply of industrial land, something we have been in egregious violation of a long time. Juniper Ridge is meant to solve THIS PROBLEM.

From BendLiving:

On May 13, 2005, the City issued developers a so-called “Request for Qualifications,” or RFQ, for Phase I of Juniper Ridge. This RFQ “solicited qualifications from development teams to develop approximately 504 acres of land to become the Juniper Ridge Technology and Research Park.”

Bend City Council asked for ideas regarding the development of the intial 500ac, (Phase I) THAT'S ALL. There were multiple RFQ's for a 500ac development plan, but one set of K-mart, light blue leisure suit Larry's swept Bend City Council off their feet: Ray Kuratek & Jeff Holzman, after hitching up from the Bay where they whiled away the days jerking Templeton Funds around on a 39ac campus, formed Juniper Ridge Partners for the sole purpose of bidding on the Juniper Ridge development. But Holz-tek pulled a quick one as is their wont to do, being Shameless Hucksters:

  • They proposed the development of ALL 1,500ac
  • They wildly changed the distribution of zoning planned for JR
  • They secured a $2.5MM golden parachute for themselves to pay "salaries & expenses" if they were ever to be fired
  • They receive $60,000/mo compensation
  • They secured a promise of 20% GUARANTEED RETURN for their financial partner, AIG, on their $30MM investment
  • They HAMSTRUNG every other proposal when Bend City Dumbshits all of a sudden acted like their 500ac proposals were no longer appropriate
  • They convinced the City to go into the Development Business, and go into league with them to share (nope, "share" isn't the word... it's "bear") ALL the risks of developing JR, but ONLY get their "FAIR SHARE" of the profits after the other side is repaid IN FULL
  • They (initially) convince Bend City Dumbfucks that despite the fact that the city would provide 100% of the land (the PRIMARY ASSET in this heist) and $40MM in infrastructure improvements as compared to JRP & Co's $30MM, that they would split profits 50/50. This was later slapped down as simply an INTOLERABLE RIPOFF.

There is probably more, but it's almost too much to bear. Typing each bullet point does to me what an inappropriate apostrophe or spelling error does to Timmy: it whipe's 24 ou-wer's auff mi life'sporn.

Holz-tek are shamless hucksters. It is in their nature to frisk their marks for every nickel. But it's Bend City Butt-bangers responsiblity to SAFE GUARD the City's resources. I DO NOT BLAME HOLZ-TEK: that's like blaming a shark for ripping a carcass to pieces, it's the nature of the beast. But when they approached the City and proposed what may well be an ILLEGAL development plan for JR, it was Bend City ButtBangers obligation to do the following:

It's called NEGOTIATION. OK, "they" propose something Out-fucking-rageous, and "you" burn their greedy asses at the stake. OK, that's how it SHOULD GO. But when Holz-Tek met Bend City Dumbshits, they knew they'd hit PAY DIRT, cuz this is what they found:


They found a whole slew of incompetents, that simply boggle the mind. EVERY SINGLE LOONEY-ASS proposal they puked forth was ACCEPTED WHOLE MOTHERFUCKIN' HOG.

Q: "20% guaranteed for AIG?"
A: YES

Q: "50/50 split"
A: YES

Q: We can completely change EVERY SINGLE REQUIREMENT of JR, including parts that would make it BORDERLINE ILLEGAL?
A: YES

Q: We get millions for doing NOTHING?
A: YES

Q: You will go into the horribly risk-laden development business in league with K-mart leisure-suit Larry's, and NOT HUGE well-established developers like Trammel Crow, despite the fact you dumbshits can't fix a fuckin' toilet?
A: YES

My God, it just goes on and on. Seriously, I get an uncontrollable eye-twitch when I think about it. You think it's an isolated incident? FUCK NO! There is seemingly NOTHING that goes before the City Council where they do not just flout their fiduciary duties, THEY ACTIVELY SEEK TO VIOLATE THEM. From todays Bulletin:

Downtown Bend lot will get an overhaul
As a result of a last-minute switch in the terms of the city’s request for proposals, officials can judge the projects without having to favor the project with the higher sale price to the city.
In August, just one day before proposals for redeveloping the land at Greenwood and Wall were initially due, the council, acting as BURA, decided to suspend the process to change the factors that would be used to select a project.

Initially, half of a project’s score was to have gone toward the price that developers offered the city for the land. Thirty percent would have gone toward the design concept and 20 percent of the score would have been for the qualifications and experience of the developers.

But at the last minute, councilors decided they would rather have more flexibility in scoring the proposals, so they pulled the plug on the process, returned the proposals unopened to the developers and launched a new process, with proposals due in the middle of September. In the second round, the three categories remained, but there was no scoring percentage or weight attached to any of them.

All but one member of BURA, Councilor Mark Capell, voted in favor of the change.

“We just seem to be doing a number of embarrassing things,” Capell said at the Aug. 15 meeting. “If we keep looking flaky, and I hate to keep using that word, (the city’s credibility) is never going to get better.”

"Flaky"? You think this sounds "flaky"? That's like calling Hitlers genocide of the Jews, "flaky". It seems borderline criminal. They've essentially WIPED OUT any possible evaluation of these 2 proposals based on merit, and made the process 100% CAPRICIOUS. 100% at their whim. Kuratek said dealing with City Council is like dealing with The Ultimate Old Boy Network... he got that shit right.

Seriously, if I type much more about this, I will get some sort of spontaneous TUMOR. But I will just shortly write what we should do with JR:

SELL IT

Right, just sell the fucker. With the current City Council we are doomed the destroy the town. Like the French, whatever it is they WANT to do, we should do EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE, because I don't know much, but I do know that WHATEVER the hell they DO want is counter to the interests of this town. There is talk that we could sell JR lock, stock & barrel for $65 million. We should do that, and then try to extract a 20% 30 YEAR GUARANTEED RETURN from AIG. That would parlay our $65 million to a scant $15,429,461,000 in 30 years. Yeah, 15 BILLS. I know, it's a little disingenuous to even THINK that any fuckin' lunatic in their right mind would PROMISE 20%... except the City of Bend. We actually ARE.

Here it is:

It's OUR land.
Most of the money is OURS

And Bend City Morons have essentially given Holz-tek the opportunity to STEAL 75% of JR.

STEP 1) 2 K-mart light blue polyester leisure suits
STEP 2) Smoke and mirrors magic show where rabbit is pulled out of hat

STEP 3) Secure Master development rights

STEP 4) Insert digits into Jim Clinton blowup doll

STEP 5) Sell 300ac of JR for residential development, in 100% VIOLATION OF STATE LAW

STEP 6) Repay AIG with proceeds, before the ink is barely dry on their $30MM deposit slip

STEP 7) Exploit 100% of the remainder of JR for the next 1,000,000 years


This is ACTUALLY WHAT IS HAPPENING. We are actually just going to GIVE AWAY Juniper Ridge. It's un-fuckin-believable. We could sell it for $65 mill, but instead we're going to just give it away, in almost certain violation of the law. Holz-tek have RE-WRITTEN the zoning proportions for THEIR SOLE BENEFIT. They WILL sell off just enough to pay off their Money Guy, and at that point, they & AIG will control virtually everything that happens at JR, and Bend & it's taxpayers are SCREWED. Seriously, it's unbelievable. We will literally turn a 8-9 figure financial bonanza into NOTHING.

And there's the idiotic protest: "If we just sell JR, we'll have no control over what happens there! Oh no!"

What? WHAT? WHAT?

What the fuck does this mean? We'll have 100% control over what happens, just like we do over every single other development. You just zone the motherfucker for whatever you want. Like this city has done a billion times before. Zone the fuckin thing for whatever you want, and then SELL IT. If you get some lunatic like Kuratek who builds a Dairy Queen in a residential zoned area, you blow it up. If Holzman builds a koi pond in a light industrial zone, you drain it & EAT THE KOI.

OK, Bend City Dumbbutts have proved OVER & OVER, that they have LESS THAN ZERO qualifications for ANYTHING, much less going into league with a couple of flim-flam men. Zone JR, sell it, and FIRE EVERY FUCKIN' BEND CITY COUNCILOR. Reminds me of "Blazing Saddle"... This is Bend City Buttfucks answer to ever flim-flam asshole that stumbles into town:

Sheriff Bart: Oh lordy lord! He's desperate. Do what he say! Do what he say!

My God, I've aged about a year just writing that. OK, moving on to David Foster & Brooks "auction", and then I have to quit and nurse this monsterous JR-inspired tumor/goiter.

David, for probably good reason, seems to have changed his tone from one of slightly masked pessimism, to one of "it's not so bad". That's OK, he's a Realtor, and frankly he was quite alone in his frank discussions of the downside. But go beyond the "surface" of whether you agree with him or not, and you get the idea that he's hurtin'. That the state of the RE business in Bend is pretty gat-damned dire. That it is starting to impact the livelihood of MANY people in the business to the extent that they will change their tune & try to "talk it up".

Now, I still respect David & his opinion, he's been a pretty straight shooter when the DuBois' & Breezes' of the World have not just been shading the truth, but deliberately misleading people, from my perspective. But I think he's shifting a little towards "puffing" this thing back up, in some measure to restore some sort of faith in this thing. He has some quotes in his recent piece:

"The goal of owning a home seems to be getting beyond the reach of more and more Americans. The typical new house today costs about $28,000." Business Week, 1969

"The median price of a home today is approaching $50,000 ... housing experts predict price rises in the future won't be that great." National Business, 1977

"The golden age of risk-free run-ups in home prices is gone." Money Magazine, 1985

"A home is where the bad investment is." San Francisco Examiner, 1996

Now these look like pretty good homilies supporting buying a house for the long-term, given that prices are almost ludicrously higher today. But remember 2 things: There is PREDICTION of the future, and rehashing the past. Virtually ALL newspaper pieces simply review recent holding period returns, and then extrapolate these, and write some sort of "predictive" piece that is invariably wrong. That's what these are. Half-wit reporters writing pieces about holding period returns on housing that were kind of crappy at the time they wrote them. They actually are probably better as timing vehicles for a short-term bounce than anything.

Second, we are AT OR NEAR the top of the largest RE bubble ever experienced by THIS PLANET. NO MATTER WHERE OR HOW you look back, you will find prices from more than 10 years ago as almost ridiculously low compared to today. Just look at the NASDAQ right after the peak, maybe around 4,500: There is a GREAT CASE to be made that the NASDAQ at 4,500, while off a bit, is still one of the GREATEST INVESTMENTS IN MODERN TIMES.

We all know what happened next. We are at "NASDAQ 4,500" in the bursting of the biggest RE bubble ever. 10% off the top, but still there can be made very convincing arguments that RE is still a HUGE long-term winner. This is simple holding period return extrapolation, much like David's quotes. There is NO prediction in them. They are "predicting" the recent past... not the future.

Finally, Brooks Resources has decided to "auction" some townhomes at Mt Bachelor Village. Seems Uncle Flippers, the prime target of selling these shitholes, has up & died. I have to quote the word "auction" here, because my own experience of this town and it's Boss Hogg insiders leads me to believe this is Yet Another PR/Marketing Bullshit Bonanza from a graduate of the Creating Perceived Demand Where None Exists Community College, apparently where Hollern graduated.

Now Timmy, I think, thinks this is a Sign Of The Times and is indicative of one of the Big Boys doing Major Signaling that The End is Nigh. And I agree to some extent. They WOULD NOT do an auction unless there was a strong impetus to do so. But I also believe that "Auction" was Phase I of the plan. Phase II involved massive widespread PR/Marketing using The Bulletin as their bitch (check that one off as COMPLETE), then plant Friends of Brooks in the "bidding pool" to ensure a GUARANTEED SUCCESS. I don't think the higher ups at Brooks could resist.

This auction is a 100% FRAUD AND A FAKE. There is an iron-clad fallback that involves the oldest trick in the eBay book: Self dealing. These condos WILL SELL. They would NEVER do something like this & let it fail. It'd be SUICIDE for ALL OTHER BROOKS DEVELOPMENTS. There are VERY HIGH price reserves on all these units, so this is nothing more than a modest price reduction, with a ticker tape PR parade in tow. Congrats Brooks, you've turned a price reduction "mole-hill" into a PR Mountain.

If Brooks OR ANYONE were to EVER hold a 100% authentic, no self-dealing, no price res, open, public auction, the absolute WORST SCENARIO POSSIBLE would be unveiled: That market clearing prices for Bend homes are dizzyingly far below where we are now, probably 30% down from here. There is ZERO INCENTIVE to probe the true depths of how bad the current Bend market is. But evidence is all around us.

Remember "Eagles Landing"? The little subdiv with approximately 98% of all it's lots unsold, depicted in "Picto-Plummet"? Well, they lowered intial prices from $425K.... to $350K... to $299K. And how many lots sold as a result of this 30% reduction?

ZERO

Nothing has been built or even started at Eagles Landing despite the implosion of prices that have cratered 30% over the Summer & Fall. There is literally almost no way to lower your prices enough to truly understand just how depressed demand really is. People who are buying now are very, VERY few in number, and they literally have "no choice". NOBODY, given the choice, would buy now. Conversely, NO ONE who is attempting & listing their house RIGHT NOW, has ANY CHOICE. Do you know ANYONE who would VOLUNTARILY try to sell a home in Bend today? No! No one would.

In that vein, Brooks is HARD UP to sell its townhomes. ANYONE trying to sell RE around here, who needs to do it to pay off liabilities is probably looking at the Big BK. THAT is what's changing. Timmy, I think, is one person who is starting to get the smackdown that Paul-doh been laying down lo these many months:

The more I read this blog, the more I worry about my gameplan. (And I AM here to learn, not for the pure entertainment value, of which there is much.) I've been expecting mass bank takeovers of properties in Bend. Price declines to 2003, or even earlier levels. I'm prepared for Plan B in that DOESN'T happen. (Go to a part of the country where my down payment here buys a whole house there.) But am I prepared for the true ramifications of Plan A? If Bend crashes hard and I get what I thought I wanted, am I just living it up in a sweet house in a decimated crime-ridden, depressing hellhole of a town?

There isn't going to be this sort of Ceterus Paribus Decline, where all else stays equal and home prices just go into an orderly decline. Prices will go down FOR GOOD REASON. If we see $175K medians.. do you think all the recent affluence & wealth & prospering local economics will be unaffected? Or EVEN CLOSE? It'll be drugs, crime, and a bunch of gypsy's barely scrapping by. It'll be mass exodus. It'll be big swaths of GHOST TOWN SUBDIVS.

It really is scary what's going on here. A City Government that is literally a bunch of moronic criminals. Their answer to an angered citizenry regarding their own graft, self-dealing, and incompetence is MORE PR & MARKETING & CLOSE THE FUCKIN' DOORS. They are literally THROWING AWAY our tax dollars. No, that's not true. If they were just throwing dollars away, we'd probably be OK. They are actually legally encumbering this town in illegal contracts, where we literally receive NOTHING except GUARANTEED BANKRUPTCY & the other side gets HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS. It's unbelievable (Sorry, I can't stop saying that, cuz I can't stop thinking it).

I have literally resigned myself to exasperated apathy. How can I give a SHIT about this place when it's leaders don't just NOT GIVE A SHIT, they seem to actively WANT TO DESTROY IT? It's like the US itself: What the hell are we doing, taking one of the greatest stores of wealth the World has ever known (U.S. business tax base), and squandering it in a pointless "War"? I do not get it. Bend has an almost unbelievable resource in JR, it's property tax base, and other revenue sources, and we literally would be better off setting this money on fire than doing what City Council is doing.

Timmy is dead right. Bend is the next "Zimbabwe". Zimbabwe leaders took one of the most prosperous African countries 20 years ago, and literally destroyed it economically. Remember that next time someone tries to sell you the Bend Is Surrounded By Natural Wonders BULLSHIT, about how people will never leave & the hordes will always keep coming here. What a load of shit. Places of Natural Beauty being run into the ground is The Rule in this World, not the exception. Bend IS beautiful, as BEM notes, but so are a LOT of other places. People WILL LEAVE BEND IF IT IS ZIMBABWE'd. If every economic resource is 100% SQUANDERED, as it is now, you literally will not recognize Bend a decade hence. Ohhh, we'll have our $175K medians. We'll also have 50% vacancy downtown, 20% unemployment, vast ghost towns, busted windows, meth shacks on every corner, and God knows what else.

If you give a flying fuck about Bend, well then you go to the JR meeting Monday. I WILL NOT be in attendance attendance. Why should I? Per our glorious Mayor:

The Bend City Council is considering a number of other things this week.

During a Monday night work session, the council will discuss a widely circulated policy memo on the next steps of developing the 1,500-acre mixed-use Juniper Ridge project. Though the meeting is open to the public, the council is unlikely to open the floor to much public comment, Mayor Bruce Abernethy said.

Q: Why should I give a shit about a town that EXPRESSEDLY does not give a fuck about what I have to say?

A: I DON'T.

Prediction:

One or more Bend City Councilors will be perp-walked out of City Hall in the next 3 years.

Frankly, I cannot believe that what Bend City Council is doing is not being done under duress, and Holz-tek KNOW what the skeleton in the closet is. There's just no way any one person is THAT stupid, much less a whole group. Paul-doh got a nose for bullshit, and this don't smell right. Somebody's going to jail.

I also think some will see the end and pull "The Hummel Maneuver": Resign, declare your Love Of Humanity (If a lawyer declaring his "Love Of Humanity" don't set off your gay-dar, nothing will.), and run off to a foreign country with questionable extradition laws. The smarter ones will quit first, and ask questions later. I don't know much, but

SOME DUMBFUCK IS GOING TO JAIL FOR FELONY FRAUD.

324 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 324 of 324   Newer›   Newest»
Anonymous said...

BUILDING PERMITS DOWN 7.3% in SEPT!

and the beat goes on...

Anonymous said...

WESTERN STATES stats:

Sales DOWN 10%

PERMITS DOWN 23#, yes that was 23%!

and da beat goes on....

Bend Economy Man said...

So Bank of the Cascades stock is down almost 40% from the beginning of this year.

You know, back in late 2005 and early 2006 when I and my blog-buddies Paul and CACB Shorter were arguing that BOTC is a great proxy for the Bend bubble and its stock would begin to tank soon enough, a lot of people argued with this.

We argued that by buying a Boise-based bank (heralded by morons as a great diversification strategy), BOTC was diversifying itself out of the frying pan into the fire, because this is just when Boise's bubble was firing on all cylinders. Sure enough, BOTC's has experienced a big growth in bad loans that it wouldn't have had if it'd stayed at home.

Well what do you doubters think now? CACB is at $20. It will need good news when it releases its 4th quarter and year-end results in order to stay above the psychologically important $20 mark.

We all know that Bank of the Cascades will not have good news next quarter - it will have worsening news. Same goes for 1Q and 2Q 2008 - early 2007 the Bend economy was still going pretty strong on the "fumes of the booms" and the handwriting wasn't quite on the wall that Bend most certainly is in big economic trouble.

A few more quarters like this and CACB will be a penny stock.

I took a look at the earnings release:

A few interesting things - their interest expense is way up year-over-year - over 30%. Some of this is probably borrowing to fund the cash portion of the F&M deal, but it could also mean BOTC is borrowing heavily to fund its own operations.

The value of its investment securities portfolio is down over 20%, which means it's either liquidated some positions to cover costs or it made some bad bets.

Its return on average equity is down almost 30%. Its nonperforming assets and its NPA-to-equity ratio are each up OVER 1000% for the year and OVER 100% for the quarter.

Its charge-offs have increased over 300% in a year, and OVER 200% for the quarter.

Its mortgage originations are down 23% for the year and 25% for the quarter. That's a surprising stat - they had increasing mortgage originations from 3Q 2006 to 2Q 2007, then a MASSIVE dropoff in one quarter. Their loan officers must be just twiddling their thumbs (and looking for work).

Today The Bulletin came out with a story that included Patty Moss's predictable spin and optimism for "long-term growth." But all of BOTC's income numbers are flat or declining, and all its expense and bad-asset numbers are growing exponentially.

When Patty Moss says that she sees "long-term growth" it has nothing to do with the potential of their markets, or the way they run their business, or current trends - she's counting on a deux ex machina to save the day. Because the 360-degree horizon from Moss's captain's chair shows only storm clouds.

Anonymous said...

Fascinating, when 'bay meadows' was being stolen from the public, they had an initiative, and KURATEK hired an outfit called 'Signer' who went to all the places that the initiative petition people were working and had them banned. NOW THAT IS POWER. KURATEK IS ONE TOUGH PLAYER.

*

Stockbridge Capital Hires Singer Associates
Stockbridge Capital (Bay Meadows Land Company) has hired Singer Associates from San Francisco to stop people from signing the referendum petitions. Singer Associates’ clients include Bohannon Development (Hillsdale Shopping Center) and Bay Meadows...
>> Read Mor

Anonymous said...

BEM has me and timmy pointed out yesterday, big banks will be saved, regional banks that made bad decisions will go south.

CACB is a zombie. Depositor money was used to play the Oregon Real Estate Lottery.

Yes, CACB was a good play 2002->2006 it road he bend-bubble, but all the smart mutual funds got out by fall of 2006.

Anonymous said...

I LOVE KURATEK, 100's and 100's of LLC's.

Just like Hollern of Brooks.

The best part of Kuratek is that he never tells a consistent BIO, or story.

Bend deserves Kuratek, he is one of their own. Hollern & Kuratek are siamese twins, and Bend is their common asshole.

Anonymous said...

Today's WSJ again COVER-STORY subprime, its now week-two, and every day. Today is about how the whole food chain is imploding people from the bottom like truck-drivers have lost all including the CEO of the MTG house that wrote the paper.

Everyone along the entire vertical food chain attached to sub-prime is losing everything. Note that Oregon always lag's, so its coming.

To quote todays lead "This crisis is a case-study on the way that GREED convinced everyone that there was NO RISK".

UBS ( Kuratek ) is saying that for every 10% drop in home prices, they're going to lose $100 Billion dollars.

No wonder KURATEK has attached himself to the BEND-TIT for perpetuity.

tim said...

Last year I said I was afraid to short CACB because of the history of little banks being bought by regionals. A falling stock price could be an invitation for a buyout.

All the little guys SHOULD have been shopping themselves last year and this spring, but they were probably still drunk on their earlier stock appreciation.

It's possible the acquisition departments of the bigger fish knew better than to go grab the overpriced little guys who had run up on the RE bubble. We'll never know because those guys don't write books, and if they did they'd be boring books no one would buy.

I believe CACB-shorter and I took turns on making some money on that pig. Me on the end of the leg-up, and shorter on the beginning of the way down.

Now that the price has fallen, could it be bought out? I doubt it. Their exposure to Central Oregon must just be horrifying to the bigger regionals like Wells Fargo and Washington Mutual, and Wells Fargo is already getting slammed for its exposure in the West (think California, Vegas, and now Portland and Seattle). Buying more exposure would just drive down Wells Fargo further.

The WSJ has indeed been full of subprime. That's what I expect to see now when I pull it out of the bag. Same with the FT (which I get a day late in the mail).

In the US I think we're getting a "special" FT for the States. Still, the FT (and its sister magazine, the Economist) is interesting because the story there is more about how the US subprime market is affecting the world markets. Some people expect US subprime to be what trips up the bubbly Chinese market. London and Australia are starting to see their housing bubbles shake, as are other countries.

If you want to live in an age of fear, you haven't seen anything yet. Just wait until the Chinese bubble pops and we see Chinese leadership and military do big scary things to remind all the new capitalists and consumers in China who is in control.

Anonymous said...

It appears that the ENTIRE background check on KURATEK was done on his nickel by his lawyer name Wilson of PDX.

Think about that ...

city-hall: Ray, tell us about yourself

ray: I'll have my lawyer do a 3 folder background check, I have been in biz for 30 years, so there's lot of stuff, no need for the city to trouble yourselves, I'll pay for the check, and have my lawyer do the work

city-hall: thanks ray

....


That's it. That's what we call due diligence. Note this background-check should be part of the public file. A real reporter would find it, and see if it even comes close to the public information on the internet.

Anonymous said...

Just wait until the Chinese bubble pops

*

China has a long way to go, 90% of the country still lives like the US in the 1900.

Modernization of China will take two generations, its USA that's fucked, baby-boom is over, nobody needs to buy anything, and nobody has any money.

China is competitive, note that most of China has no power, these new dams are going to bring power to villages, and they'll all want washers, fridges, tv's, ...

There may be a minor correction in China, but over the next 50 years its all going up.

The USA dollar has been falling for 20+ years, the USA is like the ROMAN empire about 450AD, just wait a few more years, when the dollar is completely worthless, nobody will send shit to the USA.

tim said...

>>There may be a minor correction in China, but over the next 50 years its all going up.

You don't grow without excesses. Growth like that always includes crises along the way.

I agree about long-term.

Anonymous said...

You don't grow without excesses. Growth like that always includes crises along the way.

I agree about long-term.

*

Crisis are inevitable, hell Katrina was a crisis. ( still is )

The USA has a negative savings rate, homes are over-valued, the baby-boom is over, and kids these days are looking forward to shit.

On the other hand China has unlimited opportunity. I have traveled and lived on and off in China since the early 1980's.

I saw Shanghai go from complete paralysis and filth like Mexico City, to today its clean and virtually no traffic with new subways.

The chinese stock market will always be crazy, for the simple reason that chinese love to gamble.

There are 1,000's of reasons why China will lead the world, and I'm not going to list them all, we need to focus on Kuratek.

tim said...

Well, you guys go ahead. Kuratek seems like a spent force to me. A product of the boom. He'll die like a fresh water fish in the ocean.

Anonymous said...

Timothy said...

Well, you guys go ahead. Kuratek seems like a spent force to me. A product of the boom. He'll die like a fresh water fish in the ocean.

*

If that were the case then JR would be dead today, if that were the case he wouldn't be getting $60k/month from bend taxpayer.


Let the meter run, this saltwater fish can afford to buy scuba on $60k/yr, or his own private salt water tank.

The whole Kuratek is post-boom planning, its keeping the gravy train running until the bust is over.

KURATEK was brought, and kept around to MAKE things happen during the BUST.

I don't think you see the picture timmy.

Anonymous said...

Timmy,

I wish you were right, that Bend was rational, and that Kuratek will go out with the tide, as the bend-bubble ebb's.

Sadly, that is not the case there are too many people in this town that own dump trucks, they want work.

Like the title of this blog this week $15B bankruptcy, they'll do it, they don't care, as long as everyone makes money. This city doesn't care as long as stuff is happening.

Sure I can look at China and predict what will happen, because while the chinese like to gamble, who cares about their market. But I know the folks that run the Chinese government care, going back to Mao, these boys are on the 1,000 yr plan. You fuck up there and you DIE.

In bend there is NO fuckup, its ALL aw-shucks, we lost $50Million on JR, who cares??? NOBODY its our mentality, and everyone up to DUBYA is grabbing there's. What you have today in America is like when we raided the Iraqi Museums at invasion, everybody just grabbing what they can.

This is Bend completely irrational.

Brooks & Hollern are the people to watch to debate the bubble.

Hollern will keep building like MAD, because they'll let him.

Kuratek will keep milking the Bend titty until Bend is BK, because they'll let him.

Sadly, you want to drift back to wall-street, where yes things are rational. But BEND is irrational, Bend continues to be irrational, thus its very important to watch the leaders of this city, or I should say 'controllers' of this city, or BOSS-HOG's as homer would say, but its important to watch them during the debate.

Watch what they do, not what they say.

If you apply any kind of rational thinking to Bend, you'll come out wrong.

Anonymous said...

I predicted there would be no MTG soon, but already a 95% drop in purchase of new MTG. The originators this year are FUCKED, nobody is buying MTG's. The FED is trying to sucker ( granny ) investors back to the MTG-CDO racket, guess what? They're NOT coming.

***

How bad is it?

An article in yesterday's Financial Times said that, “Only $9.9 billion of home equity loan securitizations have come to market since July 1---A 95% DECLINE FROM THE $200.9 BILLION IN THE FIRST HALF OF THIS YEAR AND A ROUGHLY 92% DECREASE FROM THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR.”

The banks are in trouble. Big trouble. Main sources of revenue have dried up overnight and they're stuck with hundreds of billions of debt. That's why the papers broke the story on Saturday when there was NO chance of triggering a stock market crash.

Imagine the horror of investors around the world when they discover that the major investment banks are running these shabby “off-balance sheets” operations while concealing their real financial condition from their investors. Consider the disgust the public feels when they see Treasury officials bailing out the banks instead of ordering them to report their losses and get on with business.

Still, Wall Street nonchalantly leaps from one swindle to the next never considering the damage it's doing to the credibility of the market.

Susan Pulliam summed it up like this in the Oct 12 edition of The Wall Street Journal:

“Since the invention of the ticker tape 140 years ago, America has been able to boast of having the world's most transparent financial markets. The tape and its electronic descendants ensured that crystal-clear prices for stocks and many other securities were readily available to everyone, encouraging millions to entrust their money to the markets. These days, after a decade of frantic growth in mortgage-backed securities and other complex investments traded off exchanges, that clarity is gone. Large parts of American financial markets have become a hall of mirrors.”

“Hall of mirrors” is an understatement. The system is thoroughly opaque and crooked as a ram's horn. The market's new architecture, “structured finance”, is a dismal rip-off from start to finish. Consider the mentality of the hucksters who dreamed up “securitizing” subprime mortgages and selling them off as precious jewels in the secondary market. This was a blatant con-job. How can the liabilities of “borrowers with bad credit” be traded to foreign investors and pension funds like they were valuable assets? And where were the regulators while this scam was going on?

Isn't this sufficient evidence that the system is totally out of whack?

Wall Street avoids transparency like the plague. That is to be expected. But what about the government? It's the government's job to protect the investor and maintain the integrity of the system. Is that what Treasury Dept is doing or are they “LURING investors to buy debt issued by the rescue fund as part of the plan”? (quote from the Wall Street Journal)

“Luring”? Is that how Paulson sees it; like luring turkeys to the chopping block with a trail of bread crumbs?

The idea of protecting the little guy has never occurred to anyone in the Bush administration. Their job is to shift wealth from one class to the other via equity bubbles and government bailouts----anything that advances the corporate agenda.

Presently, the banks are sitting on $200 billion in non-performing mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) and collateralized debt obligations. (CDOs) They are also hold another $300 billion in collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) from mergers and acquisitions which stalled after the Bear Stearns meltdown. If the present bailout doesn't materialize, we're likely to see bank closures and a plummeting stock market.

tim said...

>>If that were the case then JR would be dead today, if that were the case he wouldn't be getting $60k/month from bend taxpayer.

Oh, don't get me wrong. Bend's local gov't is a retarded group that has already managed to hand over a veritable Easter Basket of goodies to him.

But even the Bulletin seems skeptical of him. His ascent is over. He may still live a plush life here, but his moves are no longer unencumbered. He won't be able to operate free from scrutiny.

People like him chafe under oversight. I wouldn't be surprised to see him move on to "the next Bend."

I just meant I'm not that interested in him personally. Go ahead and expose him, but I think I already have a pretty good idea of what kind of player he is.

Washington Mutual reported this afternoon. Surprise, surprise--earnings dropped due to loan losses.

Anonymous said...

WAMU drop's 72%, that's just the beginning.

*

Washington Mutual's Profit Falls on Bad Mortgages (Update2)
Bloomberg - 42 minutes ago
By Elizabeth Hester Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Washington Mutual Inc., the largest US savings and loan, said third-quarter profit fell 72 percent as the company wrote off bad home loans

Anonymous said...

Bend's local gov't is a retarded group that has already managed to hand over a veritable Easter Basket

*

Yes, but if it weren't for the parasitic electorate, these morons wouldn't be in power.

Greed made people believe there was no risk in Bend, and most people still believe there is no risk.

It doesn't matter who you elect, Bend only gets richer.

Anonymous said...

The rats are starting to eat one another.

BEND COUNCIL FIRES CITY MANAGER ANDERSON

Oct 18, 2007 12:15 AM

City Manager Andy Anderson watched as council voted his termination, then stayed in accustomed role (Photo courtesy COTV)

Will stay aboard 30 days; fireworks sales ban fizzles

By Barney Lerten and Kelsey Watts, KTVZ.COM

A proposed ban on the sale of fireworks was supposed to be the hot Bend City Council agenda item Wednesday night, but that fizzled from the start, and a true City Hall bombshell quickly followed. Councilors fired City Manager Andy Anderson, effective in 30 days, clearly displeased how his 3-year tenure has turned out amid controversies over everything from broken-down transit buses to the embattled vision and process for Juniper Ridge.

"The Bend City Council has decided to terminate City Manager Andy Anderson's employment, pursuant to his contract, with an effective date of Nov. 17," Mayor Bruce Abernethy said in a brief statement read to the meeting audience.

The mayor thanked Anderson for his service since joining the city in 2004 and expressed gratitude for his willingness to stay on for 30 days "to ensure a smooth transition."

"I'm sure we'll all remember this is a personnel issue" and thus not one people can speak out without caution, Abernethy said.

Councilor Bill Friedman then made the motion "to terminate Andy as described by the mayor," and colleague Mark Capell seconded the motion, which was approved by unanimous voice vote.

Councilor Linda Johnson then requested time on the agenda at the council's next meeting to begin the process toward hiring Anderson's successor.

After the meeting, Abernethy told NewsChannel 21, "Using good management practices, council had actually been talking with Andy individually over the last couple of months, what are expections (were)."

"And I think, as we started talking amongst each other, those didn't seem to be met," the mayor said.

The mayor stressed there had been no improprieties on Anderson's part, and he will receive a severance package as "fair compensation" for his work.

Abernethy said there was no single factor that led to Anderson's termination, but the issues have been percolating for some time.

Assistant City Manager Eric King will take over as interim city manager after Anderson's last day Nov. 16. Ron Garzini, who recently came back aboard at City Hall to help steer the Juniper Ridge project through some rough waters, will serve as a "mentor" to King, Abernethy said. (Garzini has served as interim city manager after other departures and also in the assistant city manager's role for a time.)

The mayor said it could take some time to fill the city manager position on a permanent basis - possibly six to nine months.

Anderson previously spent seven years as city manager of Enid and Norman Okla., and before that spent a decade as Medford's city manager.

Long-time City Hall observers will remember the relatively short tenure of Anderson's predecessor, David Hales, and the tumultuous end to Larry Patterson's longer period running the city government. It was Patterson who, after a newly elected, slow-growth council majority terminated him, noted a basic reason for the typically short time city managers serve in that pressure-filled role: "Friends come and go, but enemies accumulate."

And indeed, the city has been under sharp criticism in recent years for issues such as the 1,500-acre Juniper Ridge mixed-use project (which critics say is over-reaching and too risky) to the problems with Bend's purchase of used, problematic buses and a recent controversy over a runway construction project at the Bend Airport that pitted neighbors upset by nighttime work vs. businesses worried about a lengthy airport shutdown (with the city and its tight timeline in the middle).

Several councilors had publicly stated recently the city had done a poor job of communicating its message, and not just on Juniper Ridge, and called for changes in that regard.

City looks to form committee on fireworks issue

Moments earlier, Friedman had stated it was clear his scaled-down proposal to just ban the sale of fireworks in the community had run into a lot of opposition (and a long list of would-be speakers later bore that out).

So instead, he proposed putting together a citizen committee to address the fireworks issue "that could look for a win-win for everybody."

Councilor Chris Telfer asked if that panel would look not at a ban on fireworks but "to find ways to enforce (rules against the) illegal use of fireworks that's already banned."

Freidman said "it could be that's how (the committee's recommendations) would come out. I would hope whatever comes out would be supported by a large portion of the committee."

Telfer said she was "a little uncomfortable with the stall tactic, so to speak," and Johnson later said she was "a little troubled" with that label for creating a committee on the issue.

"To me, that's what representative democracy ... is all about," Johnson added.

Several people, including officials with churches and non-profit groups that sell fireworks, had signed up to speak. Most agreed not to, after hearing what the council's new direction was and urged by Abernethy to hold fire. However, a TNT Fireworks representative did speak briefly and told councilors he was "very happy" with their decision not to proceed with a ban on sales.

Anonymous said...

If you google "bendbubble" the following was #1 yesterday, its a good thing that so much history is so accessible to so many. Makes you sort of proud to be part of Bend, Oregon.


"http://bendbubble.blogspot.com/2007/08/bend-history-field-niggers-house.html">A Short History of Bend

Anonymous said...

Councilors fired City Manager Andy Anderson, effective in 30 days, clearly displeased how his 3-year tenure has turned out amid controversies over everything from broken-down transit buses to the embattled vision and process for Juniper Ridge.

*

Word is Anderson brought Garzini back in, Juniper Ridge implosion soon. Watch the rats.

BEND: a city with a dysfunctional staff and government

Homer was hoping for resignations, it looks like the electable have decided that terminations for the 'innocent staff' are more logical. Again watch what they do, not what they say. In theory Abertnethy has been around for three years and Andersens 'mismanagement' is his fault. Looks like they're bringing in a fresh face to buy time.

Anonymous said...

Word is Anderson was singly responsible for keeping the LS deal secret on JR, and pushed the one hour approval of the deal. The city council now is on a vendetta, as they have caught the fury of the citizenry. Looks like Anderson, and is out and all the promises he made to Les Schwab. The unwinding of Juniper Ridge has started.

I hope Brogman gives Anderson a job, he deserves it.
*
Les Schwab corporate offices moving to Bend
Dick Borgman promoted to Chief Executive Officer
The Central Oregonian Wed, 13 Dec
The Board of Directors of Les Schwab Tire Centers announced that Les Schwab reached an agreement
with the City of Bend to purchase land that will be used for new corporate offices.
The Bend City Council approved the purchase at a meeting held today. In addition, the Board approved
the appointment of Dick Borgman as Chief Executive Officer.
"Les Schwab Tire Centers' history is rooted in this region and our Board of Directors is pleased to find a
suitable location for our new corporate offices here in central Oregon," said Les Schwab Tire Centers
Chairman Phil Wick.
This concludes a long process that I have been working on for the last year," Wick said. "We wanted to
remain in Oregon but also looked at areas beyond the state. The Bend headquarters location provides
the land and infrastructure needed to support our business and reinforces our commitment to the central
Oregon region that has supported us. We look forward to drawing upon a skilled labor force that will
help us grow further in the years ahead."
The new corporate headquarters will be approximately 120,000 square feet and located on 12 acres of
land in the Juniper Ridge development, northeast of Bend. The company anticipates the building will be
completed in the fall of 2008.
"We were excited to be approached by Les Schwab and given the opportunity to have a company of this
caliber as an anchor in the Juniper Ridge development," said Andy Anderson, Bend City Manager. "This
is a company that started in central Oregon and sets the standard for quality in our business community
and commitment to the region."

Anonymous said...

"We were excited to be approached by Les Schwab and given the opportunity to have a company of this
caliber as an anchor in the Juniper Ridge development," said Andy Anderson, Bend City Manager. "This
is a company that started in central Oregon and sets the standard for quality in our business community
and commitment to the region.

*

For six months Anderson told city-council that a special anchor tenant had JR, he was just following orders from Kuratek. City Council was dumb-founded in Dec 2006 when they learned that all the hype they had been promised for months by Anderson was just LS moving HQ to JR. It's odd that it took ten months for the city-council to get their balls together and start running city-hall.

A lot more heads are going to fall.

Yes, linda a representative democracy is not pretty.

Anonymous said...

Makes you sort of proud to be part of Bend, Oregon.


A Short History of Bend

Anonymous said...

"This is a company that started in central Oregon and sets the standard for quality in our business community
and commitment to the region." - anderson

...

Tire flipping U, Tire Rotation High, ... Anybody want to place bets on how long before Brogman drags LS into BK, or a sale??

This whole move to Bend has been a distraction, not a good a sign for a new CEO to be distracted. Doesn't look during the probation period. I'm sure folks were counting on tax breaks,... Always a bad sign when a company has to beg for tax breaks from a city government in order to make their P&L statement look good, and Balance Sheet.

Bend Economy Man said...

"Using good management practices, council had actually been talking with Andy individually over the last couple of months, what are expections (were)."

"And I think, as we started talking amongst each other, those didn't seem to be met," the mayor said.


Finally, one head rolls for the rafts of incompetent city government absurdities we've had to witness over the past couple years. Let's see some more.

Anonymous said...

"To me, that's what representative democracy ... is all about," Johnson added.

*

This HOMER is the quote, of the day.

Yes, Linda this is what a representative democracy is all about, its too bad that you had to wait until you were at the end of of political plank in order to assert yourself.

This next election is going to be ugly. Beautiful people may consider an early resignation as face saving.

Sadly, career politicians like Abernethy who has literally never had a real job, are soon going to be finding out whats it like to be on the other side of the counter at Walmart.

Ahh shucks Bend, I only lost $100 million, give me a second chance, ...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I don't know about you guys, but I'm all on pins & needles about The Fireworks Ban. I'm glad our City has decided to tackle this EXTREMELY IMPORTANT PROBLEM.

FIREWORKS.

Riveting.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

It's been 2 minutes... any news about THE FIREWORKS?

Truly important work being done by our City Government. Big issue. Fireworks. It really determines where we're headed as A People.

Anonymous said...

Anderson was also involved in the binging 'handshake' $2.5M exit for Kuratek. Only in Anderson's world are handshakes binding with other peoples money.

It would be quite interesting to find out, what broke the camels back. We know this shit has gone on since the spring of 2005, but what happened most recently that gave the city-council new balls?

There's got to be a conflict of interest deal, or an pending indictment, to have made this move at this point in time.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Finally, one head rolls for the rafts of incompetent city government absurdities we've had to witness over the past couple years. Let's see some more.

Surely you don't mean the time-consuming debate regarding fireworks, do you? Guys, this is a real make-or-break issue.

Our City Councilors have surveyed the landscape and decided that The Fireworks Issue should come first. I'm counting on all of you to come together and rally behind our Munificent City Council to overcome the paramount challenge of The Ages: Fireworks.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Debating the Bend Oregon Real Estate bubble, its implications for Bend residents, businesses, and the economic outlook for this area.

Considering changing the heading for the blog from the above to:

Debating FIREWORKS, the implications for Bend residents, businesses, and the economic outlook for this area.

Anonymous said...

. Fireworks. It really determines where we're headed as A People.

*

Symbolism, just like the dog thing, the BULL has a story today about how the BEND-PIGS have been verbally assaulted over the dog-off-leash issue.

There are a lot of scout and bend churches and crap, that get almost all their candy money from selling fireworks.

A few newbie fucking cali's complained about the fireworks, and old bend was ignored. The simple fact 'symbolism' the day is NOW OVER for the city-hall to fuck with red-necks, the city-hall now has figured out that the golden-people are broke.

All of a sudden ol linda, obviously a survivor, bless her fucking heart has realized that there are MORE important problems facing BEND than DOG's & Sizzlers.

Now personally the fucking racket drives me up the wall for two weeks, but this is Bend, people in Bend like to play with fire, and for all the shit they burn, there really isn't that much of a problem.

Like the dog issue, they wrote 1800, $375 tickets, which barely made them $80k, and they now have a police department that is HATED. So fucking hated that Brooks Security will be offering Bend Stewards to do what the cops don't want to do. That said, its fairly fucking obvious that the cops should never have been ALL put in the parks around LS Amphitheater on friday afternoons. What was city hall thinking?? Just get rid of the red-necks when tourists come in during the summer, and cops ALL know that. I talked with some, and they agreed 100% that's what it was all about.


The WHOLE program is imploding, the GOLDEN RE-HOS are NOW lepers.

SYMBOLISM, the fireworks issue shows that the little people are taking their city back

Anonymous said...

Has Nancy Grace been contacted, we really need to take the debate to the national level!!

Anonymous said...

Has Nancy Grace been contacted, we really need to take the debate to the national level!!

*

Nancy Grace committed suicide because of our relentless crusade.

Anonymous said...

I think you guys are missing the point. With the dollar collapsing at 10% per year and factoring in inflation, bend re current pricing will be cheap on a relative basis in 18 months.

Anonymous said...

I think you guys are missing the point. With the dollar collapsing at 10% per year and factoring in inflation, bend re current pricing will be cheap on a relative basis in 18 months.

*

Hollern STOP, don't auction those condo's for $695k min reserve, if you you just wait 18 months you can get the full $850k in inflated dollars.

In fact everyone should just wait and sit. I wonder what the cost of bleeding is, and why nobody ever wants to consider that as an expense, or a liablility.

The BULL just keeps going greed made people think there was no risk in Bend, and our true-believer says just hold-on for 18 months, and you'll be even with inflation.

How about this, how about DUMPING your BEND RE today, for any price, and buying EUROS. Then you know your going to make money.

Anonymous said...

I think you guys are missing the point. With the dollar collapsing at 10% per year and factoring in inflation

*

I'm the first to load the key with bullshit, but the fact is the dollar is down about 1/2 in twenty years, using the rule of 72, the would mean the dollar would be down 1/8 in 20 years at 10% annual loss.

Perhaps the dollar lost 10% this year, but that is NO promise for next, ...

The important thing is that in the last twenty the dollar has ONLY gone down. It's worth about half what it was worth in Deutch-Marks twenty years ago.

It's not clear with the fact that ALL the baby-boomers have to dump their RE, that prices will hold or grow, especially given that kids can no longer afford homes or save a down-payment. You have to be able to sell the SHIT to someone.


Look at Bend during the last twenty homes up 5X, wages barely 2X, something has to give, and its NO going to be wages. We have to compete with the Chinese at $40-80/mo.

The dollar is going south, because its worthless, and the world is voting with their feet. The USA is NAZI Germany and the whole world knows it. Given the current attitude of the world toward the US they'll not want to live here, OH YA sure USA can get all the philipinos, mexicans, and africans, but affluent people don't want to be part of the largest prison in the world.

Anonymous said...

I have said this before, and of course I'll say again.

Out of town REIT's have bought up much of downtown. They raise the rent to pay for the outrageous price they paid.

They don't care if the property sits empty because the game-plan is long-term appreciation, and short term tax loss.

Thus all of downtown Bend has now become a tax-shelter, its obvious to me that Duncan's owner is one of the few real private owners of downtown.

Where is this ALL going? I'm not sure the REIT investors can wait 5+ years, I think there will be redemptions once +50% of downtown has paper in the windows. The trouble is you have ALL these NY REITS all play the same game, and all buying in the same places, and ALL not caring about losing money on rent.

I don't have a solution, this thing will work itself out. So much for the myth that the highest bidder has the highest use. In this case cpa's, lawyers, and doc's, HIDE their income in tax-shelters, and you get ALL of the old buildings in Bend being destroyed, and replaced with SHIT like Franklin-Crossings. Which may not even last the length of the coming depression. At least the old buildings had been around for +50 years, this new crap is fifteen year life.

Easy Money, ... Pension money, tax shelter money, created a lot of construction jobs. It's going to be ugly, Bend is going to be one of the strangest ghost towns in the West.

A private REIT on the behalf of WALMART bought the 'super-burrito' building, and kicked super-burrito out. Why a WALMART REIT would buy downtown Bend property I have no idea. It's just indicative of insanity that is prevalent in Bend.
Out of town hucksters run Bend, and Out of town 'investors' are trying to lose their money ASAP.

Bend is the best tax-shelter in the West. Invest in Bend, and we'll guarantee you a tax-loss.


Given that almost ALL these REIT's paid top dollar, long term is going to be a joke. I predict that next year the redemptions will start killing these REIT's, and they'll have to dump this stuff. Commercial is going to implode in Bend, with +10yr inventory just like housing.

Anonymous said...

What in the fuck does the below mean? First of all August was a long time ago. Second 'private' jobs were lost, 70 of them. We have had an improvement?? Does this means new government jobs were created??

They make it sound like the private sector is an after-thought in central Oregon. Is this a joke?

Oct 18,2007
Central Oregon unemployment situation improves

by Bend Weekly News Sources
small font medium font large font

All three of the counties in Central Oregon saw their unemployment rates decrease from August to September. Only Jefferson County saw its rate decrease more than expected. Deschutes County had the lowest rate at 4.4 percent, while Jefferson County had the highest at 5.7 percent.

But the private sector of the economy lost a total of 70 jobs in September, some of the loss was associated with a slow down in the tourism industry as leisure and hospitality lost 20 jobs. Manufacturing shed 30 jobs, its second straight month of job declines. The wood products portion of manufacturing lost 40 jobs in September. That was the industry’s first job decline since April. Elsewhere wholesale trade, professional and business services and federal government each lost 20 jobs.

Anonymous said...

Garmyn said. “You need to buy them NOW!" - No MTG crisis Bend, forget the fact that JUMBO is gone. No more foreclosure in Bend than there were four years ago. Everything is just fine in Bend, and those bargains, so many bargains.

Holy, shit HOMER there is enough BULL-BLOGGER-FODDER here for your next weeks blog.

David Fisher can be reached at 617-7862 or at dfisher@bendbulletin.com

Mortgage crisis? Not in Deschutes
There is turmoil, officials say, but not enough to panic over

By David Fisher / The Bulletin
Published: October 19. 2007 5:00AM PST

Mortgage defaults have continued to rise through the third quarter in Deschutes County as an increasing number of homeowners struggle to make their payments, county records indicate.

But the default rate per 1,000 homes — now at about 4.75 — is only slightly higher than the area’s average rate the past eight years, and it’s running well below levels the local housing market experienced in the national recession of 2001 and 2002.

The level of homeowner and commercial stress is apparently not high enough, at any rate, to worry the region’s bankers, although “there is turmoil, some turmoil,” as Ball Janik LLP bankruptcy and foreclosure attorney Jeff Gardner put it for a crowd of 45 local bankers at a seminar in Bend on Thursday.

Ball Janick’s attorneys are representing banking clients in foreclosure cases simultaneously in Washington state, Idaho and Oregon this summer, Gardner said, the first time he’s seen that in 10 years of practice. The cases have all involved residential builders working throughout the full range of the housing market — condominiums, subdivisions and high-end homes.

Still, Gardner said he smells nothing in the air to indicate that the banking climate is about to melt down to anything like the high-interest crisis of the early 1980s, the agricultural collapse of the mid-1980s, or the real estate slowdown of the late 1980s and early 1990s.

“The sky is not falling,” Gardner said, headlining a seminar to teach local bankers how to avoid some common pitfalls that lead to bad loans. “Banks are not necessarily going out of business.”

Neither are local builders, although some have had to restructure their loans to get longer terms this summer in an attempt to ride out the slumping sales environment, said Mike Anderson, senior vice president and regional manager of Columbia River Bank.

“Down the road, we might lose some of them,” Anderson said. “Everyone believes that things will turn around again. ... It’s just a matter of how long will that take?”

No one knows, said Tom Bourdage, West Coast Bank’s vice president for commercial loans. But with the national and local economies remaining relatively strong so far, despite the housing downturn, Bourdage said the potential effect of loan failures of all types on the local banking industry won’t be as dire as some think.

“A lot of it is perception,” Bourdage said. “It’s not as bad as it seems.”

Few losses

Nonperforming commercial loans have left dents in some local banks’ financial reports this summer, but few actual losses have been reported so far.

Bend-based Bank of the Cascades reported that its nonperforming loans rose to around $21 million in the quarter, or about 0.89 percent of total assets, largely due to trouble among some Boise, Idaho, housing projects, but bank President Patty Moss said she did not expect the loans to end in actual losses.

Medford-based PremierWest Bancorp reported that its nonperformers rose slightly to 0.37 percent of assets, but only about $275,000 of the $4.1 million in loans was expected to result in a loss, considering the value of their underlying assets.

While commercial loan performance can be a window into the health of the building industry, at least in part, residential mortgage defaults give some indication of what’s happening with homeowners.

Deschutes County records showed that mortgage default notices rose to 356 through the third quarter, up 124 percent from 2006’s unusually low level and higher than in any similar period since 2000.

The rate of 4.75 notices per 1,000 households is higher than it has been since the third quarter of 2003, when it stood at 5.1 per 1,000. But it is still 18 percent lower than the decade’s peak rate of 5.8 per 1,000 reached in 2002.

Default notices, formally called Notices of Default & Election to Sell, are generally filed with the county and mailed to the mortgage holders once they have fallen two to three months behind on their payments. They amount to a warning from the lender that they will foreclose on the house in a few months, unless the borrower pays the amounts due, sells the house, refinances it or renegotiates the mortgage with the original lender.

The Central Oregon Multiple Listing Service listed about 35 homes this week as “distressed,” said Ruben Garmyn, Prudential High Desert Realty broker/owner. The bulk of them are banks trying for a “short sale,” which means they’ve agreed to take a price that doesn’t quite cover the loan amount, rather than completing the expensive foreclosure process.

Most of the homes were owned by investors who bought too high and have walked away, Garmyn said. The numbers “are up, but not way up” so far this year, he said, but he expects it to rise higher through the winter as failed investors and contractors give up.

“There’s going to be so many good deals on the market, it’s just incredible,” Garmyn said. “You need to buy them now when everybody is sitting on the fence and doesn’t want to buy ’em.”

Greg Cross / The Bulletin

David Fisher can be reached at 617-7862 or at dfisher@bendbulletin.com

Published daily in Bend, Oregon, by Western Communications, Inc. Copyright 2007.

Anonymous said...

A lot of it is perception,” Bourdage said. “It’s not as bad as it seems.”

*

PAY no attention what you see, pay NOT attention. It's NOT as bad as it seems. Just listen, if WE don't sell these fucking houses ASAP, we're going to starve.

Anonymous said...

“Down the road, we might lose some of them,” Anderson said. “Everyone believes that things will turn around again. ... It’s just a matter of how long will that take?”

No one knows, said Tom Bourdage, West Coast Bank’s vice president for commercial loan

*

Bullshit nobody knows. Can you bleed until 2011?? Turn around? What in the fuck does that really mean? It will take twenty years to come back to 2005 high prices. Turn around means to 'clear the fucking inventory', but the problem is that defaults will NOT clear until five years sub-prime was purged, which was only Feb07, thus it will be not until FEB12, before the 5/1 ARMS are purged. Until then there will be DISTRESS.

I just wish these CUNTS @ the BULL, would for once, print shit other than "NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING", remember these are the fucking BANK CEO talking this shit.

Blogger Fodder has never been better. God bless the BULL, may you never fold.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Mortgage crisis? Not in Deschutes
There is turmoil, officials say, but not enough to panic over


Classic Kool-Aid fueled Inane Headline. Default notices UP 116% in a year not even over... but no big deal. More mortgage defaults in this UNCOMPLETED year than any year since 2000, which included a recession.... no biggie. Typical Bulletin bullshit, went & found completely UNBIASED observers, like Garmyn.... good call. I'm sure Garmyn will shriek "SELL! SELL IT ALL!". Right.

Here's another Not-Quite-A-Prediction:

We're going to have a recession.

OK, while I typed that, we entered a recession. Recessions in this country are only acknowledged once they've been over for 6 months... so you won't hear about this one for a long time.

“The sky is not falling,” Gardner said, headlining a seminar to teach local bankers how to avoid some common pitfalls that lead to bad loans. “Banks are not necessarily going out of business.”

This means someone IS GOING OUT OF BUSINESS. I guaran-damn-tee you that this place is WAY over-banked. There'd be a few that's succumb in "normal" times. When this thing gets rolling, they're going to cart out MANY of the weaklings, and probably some of the big boys.


Deschutes County records showed that mortgage default notices rose to 356 through the third quarter, up 124 percent from 2006’s unusually low level and higher than in any similar period since 2000.

But the default rate per 1,000 homes — now at about 4.75 — is only slightly higher than the area’s average rate the past eight years...


Get used to THIS... the LONG LOOK BACK, where todays BAD NEWS is compared FAVORABLY to previous unpleasant era's. Like:

1) Timber recession
2) Indigenous indians slaughtered by Whitey
3) The Last Ice Age
4) When the Earth was a molten ball of LIQUID HOT MAGMA

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

“Down the road, we might lose some of them,” Anderson said. “Everyone believes that things will turn around again. ... It’s just a matter of how long will that take?”

No one knows, said Tom Bourdage, West Coast Bank’s vice president for commercial loans. But with the national and local economies remaining relatively strong so far, despite the housing downturn, Bourdage said the potential effect of loan failures of all types on the local banking industry won’t be as dire as some think.

“A lot of it is perception,” Bourdage said. “It’s not as bad as it seems.”


NO ONE KNOWS.

Read that chunk. Although NO ONE KNOWS, by God they had NO PROBLEM saying the following in JUST 3 PARAGRAPHS:

1) "Things will turn around again"
2) "Won't be as dire as some think"
3) "A lot of it is perception"
4) "It’s not as bad as it seems."

How much KOOL-AID FUELED PR/MARKETING ARE WE EXPECTED TO TAKE?

NO ONE KNOWS. Right.

No one knows, but that doesn't stop us from printing 4 OPINIONS that IT'S TURNING THE CORNER, despite all factual indications to the contrary.

Look at their graphs, and then read the completely UNFOUNDED OPINIONS put forth, and you can see the overwhelming bias inherent in all Bulletin reporting. Not a single negative opinion despite the fact that the numbers point to an absolute IMPLOSION happening RIGHT NOW. 116% increase in per home foreclosures, and THAT IS PERCEPTION?

"No one knows". CLASSIC BULLETIN BULLSHIT.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The Central Oregon Multiple Listing Service listed about 35 homes this week as “distressed,” said Ruben Garmyn, Prudential High Desert Realty broker/owner. The bulk of them are banks trying for a “short sale,” which means they’ve agreed to take a price that doesn’t quite cover the loan amount, rather than completing the expensive foreclosure process.

Most of the homes were owned by investors who bought too high and have walked away, Garmyn said. The numbers “are up, but not way up” so far this year, he said, but he expects it to rise higher through the winter as failed investors and contractors give up.

“There’s going to be so many good deals on the market, it’s just incredible,” Garmyn said. “You need to buy them now when everybody is sitting on the fence and doesn’t want to buy ’em.”


Wow. The number of ABANDONED properties WILL GO UP, per Garmyn, BUT YOU SHOULD BUY RIGHT NOW. Even the wording of Garmyns' statements don't make sense:

"There's going to be so many good deals on the market... You need to buy them now..."

These deals AREN'T EVEN ON THE MARKET, but Garmyn thinks you should BUY THEM NOW.

Dumbass: "You see that house I'm pointin' to?"
Friend: "No"
Dumbass: "I'm gunna buy that sum-bitch!"
Friend: "We lost at the North Pole.
Dumbass: "I'm still gonna buy it."
Friend: "That's a dead seal."
Dumbass: "I'm gonna buy right now while everybody else is sitting on the fence."
Friend: "Why you buyin' a rottin' seal carcass?"
Dumbass "I heard you gotta buy when no one else wants 'em. That's from one of them there bona fide Real Eye-state Experts."
Friend: "
Wow, he must stand 12 foot tall"Dumbass: "OK, shut up, I'm gonna cal my mortgage broker to see what the loan to value ratio is on this thing before a polar bear eats it."

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

“You need to buy them now when everybody is sitting on the fence and doesn’t want to buy ’em.”

Could the Bulletin be more of a RE WHORE?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

My God, there's better than a doubling in the Deschutes County foreclosure rate, and what's their headline?

Mortgage crisis? Not in Deschutes
There is turmoil, officials say, but not enough to panic over


Unbelievable.

DO NOT PANIC! ALL IS WELL. CONTINUE TO PURCHASE REAL ESTATE. THE OUTCOME? NO ONE KNOWS, WHICH WE CAN ONLY ASSUME MEANS THAT REAL ESTATE WILL GO UP, AS ALWAYS. STAY TUNED FOR OUR PRESENTATION, "BEND REAL ESTATE: A SPECTACULAR GAIN SINCE THE LAST ICE AGE!". WE WILL NOW BOB FOR APPLES IN THIS GIGANTIC VAT OF KOOL-AID. DO NOT MAKE US GO JIM JONES ON YOUR ASS! YOU WILL DRINK THE KOOL-AID NOW!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

There is turmoil, officials say, but not enough to panic over

"OFFICIALS"?

What? OFFICIALS?

Folks, dumbshit hucksters like Ruben Garmyn ARE NOT scumbag lying-ass "Realtors"... they are OFFICIALS according to The Bulletin.

What sort of fucked up town calls dumbshit lawyers & Realtors "OFFICIALS"?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Hey Bulletin: Here's a thought. Try to actually do some reporting, and not the same old Kool-Aid laced BULLSHIT.

Actually tell Becky Breeze you want some PROOF of sales numbers. She's played you dumbfucks like a fiddle. She's only SOLD 2 of those piece of shit condos, and you've let her make up just about whatever she wants & YOU PRINT IT. Same with DuBois & Franklin Crossing. God knows who else is using the Bulletin as their BOUGHT & PAID FOR PR WHORE.

Well... I guess it's obvious: EVERY DEVELOPER & BUILDER IN TOWN.

My God, get some editorial standards.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, its really a sad comment on our society when out newspaper can't print the truth and is basically bought and owned by the RE related folks.
But its no surprise as its the same with most all politicians of BOTH parties. But bottom line is that it a fat and lazy and apathetic public that has let this happen. We have let this happen.

This will change with time, but its unfortunately goin to take a LOT of TIME and especially PAIN to wake the masses up.

and the beat goes on...

Duncan McGeary said...

Keep the illusion alive, Bulletin. Keep it alive, I tell you! At least through Christmas....

Anonymous said...

Duncan, no one I know rally "believes" the illusion anymore - awareness is slowly creeping in. They know its not good and are frankly scared as reality is starting to hit home. Most folks IMO simply cannot comprehend all the many ramifications this bubble will have.

Duncan McGeary said...

I mean, thank goodness someone is willing to throw away their credibility and integrity for the cause! Someone had to do it!

Anonymous said...

Becky Breeze and likely a few others will become "classic poster RE boys and gals" and examples of a Bubble/Manis top. I think she goes down with the ship - her "Titanic" at the Old Mill.

She rolled the dice big time and lost.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

BEM: "Well what do you doubters think now? CACB is at $20. It will need good news when it releases its 4th quarter and year-end results in order to stay above the psychologically important $20 mark."

Broke below $19 today. I say again:

WALL STREET DON'T LIKE KOOL-AID POISONING IN CEO's

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Becky Breeze and likely a few others will become "classic poster RE boys and gals" and examples of a Bubble/Manis top...

Only once she quits spending at The Bulletin. They won't hang their meal tickets out to dry until they have nothing left to gain from them....

Until then.. they are Learned Experts.

Anonymous said...

Money is worthless. The dollar continues its decline. Glad I own a house that is already 50% paid off because besides that payment that I only need enough money to eat.

Anonymous said...

"Only once she quits spending at The Bulletin. They won't hang their meal tickets out to dry until they have nothing left to gain from them...."


Just like the gal's wash up on Awbrey she will be left with nowhere to go and hung out to dry. Bubbles and their aftermath are always an amazing thing to behold.

Becky rode the wave way to long and is now wiping out at Waimea Bay with 30-40 footers rollin in.

If she was smart she socked some serious cash away and structured this deal in a way that she is personally protected - if not I can hear the song "wipeout" increasing in volume in the background.

Anonymous said...

"Money is worthless. The dollar continues its decline. Glad I own a house that is already 50% paid off because besides that payment that I only need enough money to eat"

Paper or "fiat" money is worthless but an asset like GOLD is not - it has been making new 27 year highs for weeks now. All the countries of the world are printing money like crazy, that is why gold is doing so well vs ALL paper currencies.

I have been holding and accumulating gold the past 5 years, my plan is to pay off my mortgage with ever cheapening dollars in terms of an ounce of gold. When gold hits 1500-2000 dollars per ounce it will be mission accomplished, and much more, I will have at least paid off my mortgage and retained my purchasing power.

Most Americans simply do not understand how their own currency is being debased and how that will effect them.

Anonymous said...

Most Americans simply do not understand how their own currency is being debased and how that will effect them.

I agree completely. I have about 100K in 401K money but my opinion is that this could potentially become absolutely worthless. I'm not even factoring it into my retirement plans.

Anonymous said...

I agree completely. I have about 100K in 401K money but my opinion is that this could potentially become absolutely worthless. I'm not even factoring it into my retirement plans

Then diversify. There are gold and silver ETF's (Exchange traded Funds) that one can buy in a few seconds with an online brokerage account. Buy some of the gold ETF (symbol GLD) if you want some "protection" - its GOLD only. I also opened a Etrade acct that allows me to place funds in 6 different currencies and buy stocks there.

Being diversified here is the key point IMO.

Anonymous said...

Regarding the Bulletin's shortcoming, the following was just released today:


"Stopping the press barons, by Robert McChesney, Guardian"

Yesterday, the New York Times revealed that Federal Communications Commission (FCC) chairman Kevin Martin is rushing through a plan to rewrite media ownership rules by the end of the year, making it possible for the biggest media companies to continue their march toward consolidation. And he's doing it without giving the public a fair chance to respond.

The FCC under then-chairman Michael Powell tried to do this in 2003, and nearly 3 million people rose up in protest. This massive public outcry forced ... the agency back to the drawing board. But in a move that even Powell calls "courageous," Martin is trying to quickly and quietly ram through this massive giveaway before the Bush administration leaves office. ...

During his tenure at the FCC, Martin has consistently gamed the regulatory process - hiding research, leaking sensitive information to industry lobbyists, pushing forward a biased research agenda and making critical decisions in secret - while putting up an official façade of proper procedure.

Fortunately, some members of Congress have had enough of this regulatory subterfuge. Democratic senator Byron Dorgan of North Dakota ... teamed up with Mississippi Republican senator Trent Lott in a letter warning Martin to "slow down" and "proceed with caution."...

These senators prove that media is not a left-right issue, but one of concern to people from all walks of life. It is simply unacceptable for a self-governing people to tolerate any public policies that reduce the diversity of opinion in our democracy. ...

Americans ... frustrated by what is happening to news and journalism in this country ... witness every day how celebrity nonsense, talking head shouting matches and glorified stenography dominate the news.

The poverty of news content is not the fault of work-a-day journalists - among the most hardworking people on the planet. The problem sits squarely on the shoulders of public policies that make it good business to form massive media conglomerates whose mission is to cut costs, shed reporters and reduce output to the lowest common denominator.

But when the spotlight is put on the process, the public interest always wins. It is why corrupt insiders work so hard to keep the policymaking process hidden behind closed doors, and then try to pollute public discourse with the most outrageous, misleading propaganda.

Media ownership is a citizen issue of urgent importance - consolidation is a one-way street and there's no turning back. Rich media equals poor democracy.

Anonymous said...

The poverty of news content is not the fault of work-a-day journalists - among the most hardworking people on the planet.

*

Pleeeeeeeeeeeeze pass me an early Martini, I think I'm going to PUKE.

bendbust

Anonymous said...

Dear, dfisher@bendbulletin.com

Holy Shit, I'm now drinking my first Jubel in the bottle 2007, I had a few last week @ deschutes when they came out.

Looks like the stock market finally fucking corrected 'a little', note the stock market used to be about "P/E"., but E is now negative, when will the fucking MARKET correct???

Gold, I don't KNOW boys, there are several problems with gold.

1.) making change
2.) when it gets bad, they big boyz will dump theres,

We used to say, bullets and small coins, a silver piece will get you a tank of gas, and a box of bullets a side of beef. This is survival, your $2K kugerand will get you shit.

I'm not trying to sound like a survialist, but GOLD is NOT the solution

COLLECTIVE FUCKING TRUTH IS THE SOLUTION. I don't BLOG here everyday, just because I like it. We can STILL SAVE BEND, but we got to start telling the FUCKING TRUTH.

SOMEBODY AT THE FUCKING BULL. Note today CUNT FESTER, or Foster, OH Yeh FESTER, I mean FISHER wrote the pathetic BULL story, I want EVERYONE of you fucking soldiers to send this CUNT email, and tell him the fucking truth. This is NOT about being fucking smart, we need to get our shit together, and fucking quickly, because the fucking RE party is OVER.

dfisher@bendbulletin.com

Dear, Mr Fisher-Fester, PLEASE tell the fucking truth, the sooner we start dealing with a deck of cards that aren't all jokers, the sooner we can make Bend a better place to live.

sincerely, bendbutthole

I'm serious you guy, please everyone send email to this guy and COSTA and beg them to end this fucking head in the sand political correct insanity.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I don't BLOG here everyday, just because I like it.

Not even a little?

Anonymous said...

Sorry buddy but GOLD for now is an answer as part of a well diversified portfolio. Hard assets are the next bubble with a LONG way to go. Inflation is here but most don't know it yet because our gvt CPI and PPI stats are simply rigged and understating real inflation by a factor of 2x-3x.

Actually the next 5 years at least will likely be a period of stagflation, like the 70's, for the U.S. We will stagnate as we drown in our huge debt. while "Chindia" and much of the world grows nicely.

Ya see "Globalization" means the standard of living is coming down hard in the U.S. and going to increse big time in Asia and India.

The U.S. will no longer be able to afford to consume so much of the world's resources - we will simply be outbid and our dollar stinks, and foreigners hold so many of them.

If you can't see how well gold has performed as a hedge the past several years and will in the Future - that is your problem, not mine.

Anonymous said...

Not even a little?

*

Where's that beer you promised me?

I think during the summer it was fun.

Do you agree that we should put pressure on the BULL to tell the truth, or do you concur with Duncan, that they should keep sticky to the lies until xmas, so that business people don't lose out on xmas shopping?

Personally its my humble opinion, the sooner we quit being liars, the sooner things can get fixed. There seems to be the BULL/BEND idea that we should keep happy, and bankrupt the city, and the things will work out. Austerity is going to be required, and there is NO reason to discover that simple fact only after you become bankrupt.

I see duncan's point of not sending the cow back to the barn, until you have gotten the xmas cream, but that just means that this city is three months more in the hole.

The chamber of commerce, needs to start getting this city to think about tightening the belt, and laying people off. The good days of 2005 are not coming back.

Why do you write this shit, you say Bend will enjoy giving $15B for interest @20%/yr on $30M, and become bankrupt. Do you want this to happen? Or is it just humor? I would hope that by recording ( reporting ) the stupidity of the city staff & poly-tick-ians that that things could be corrected.

Any thoughts or bets? Or are we just going to let the city go into the toilet and then pay Kuratek or Hollern a fortune to fix it? Wouldn't it be better not to let Bend go into the toilet? Perhaps its already there, but everyday we don't change course on all the stupid expenditures we're digging a deeper hole for ourselves.

Duncan McGeary said...

Just as long as I can keep saying what I think. Let the Bulletin ruin their credibility.

Fortunately, no one listens to us.

Anonymous said...

Fortunately, no one listens to us.

*

We lead the curve, everything we have been talking about six months ago is now on 1/2 a dozen web sites, ... It's just like you said the lonely guy. Even though nobody will speak-up in Bend publicly, more & more are speaking up on the web. More people in Bend have gotten the courage to speak up on these sites because of us. Too bad as of yet, nobody can speak-up in the public forums. My guess is it will crack next spring.

I do agree, the ability of say what you think will not always been what it is today. Simply the fact is too many people are detouring the system.

The trend is for one paper, one message, and one party, and one world. The good news of course on world wide bankruptcy, it could fall apart, but then there are those who say that everything done was done so it would fall apart and create the 'new world order' here in the USA.

Last year Guliani was crucified by the NRA for being an anti-gun poli-tick-ian most likely to be the republic candidate, now they're saying nothing.

Todays WSJ had an interesting article about the horrible "orkut.com' and google who owns it, in Brazil they're going to ban both, because 'criminals' are using it, fact is anti-incumbents are using it, same will happen in time to these forums, ... already as you know a few weeks ago the BULL ( FUCKING DICK SUCKING BEND PAPER, and NOTE THEY SUCK DOG DICKS ) had a story about how craigs-list was used by 'criminals' for soliciting prostitution. The FUCKING BULL would like NOTHING more than to shut these forums down, as if they don't they're terminally fucked, I give them til xmas and you'll not recognize what is left of the BULL.

p.s. GULIANI is a major gun grabber, just like hilly-poo ( cheney in drag ), thus no matter who wins next election, everyone loses, these depressions are always a justification for loss of rights, second amendment is the teeth of first.

Anonymous said...

GOLD for now is an answer as part of a well diversified portfolio.

*

BUY ALL your fucking gold and shove it up YOUR ASS.

Here is the DEAL with GOLD, and its the same reason that OIL fell today.

It's that when SHIT gets bad there are only TWO things that can get $$$, and that is GOLD and OIL.

There is a TON of GOLD & OIL, its just that everyone hoards it, once shit gets really bad they'll have to sell, and NOTE when shit gets bad the BIZ that uses gold for HIGH-TECH and other uses, not to mention FUCKING jewelry is fucked, and thus sit on ALL your fucking gold, and be a gold-bug, but the fact is through-out history miserly old fucks that hoard gold usually go batty.

If you search the internet, some of the craziest fucks around are the fucking gold bugs, I have written above why its NOT a good play.

Sure 10% is safe. Far better to have a grand of silver coin, or a garage full of 30-06 or 223. Nobody can make change for Gold Coins, never have, and never will.

Anonymous said...

Ya see "Globalization" means the standard of living is coming down hard in the U.S. and going to increse big time in Asia and India.

*

Is this a fucking newbie? Or did dartagnan figure out how to use 'anonymous'??

Just what we need this late in the game someone to tell us what fucking 'globalization' is. What the fuck does globalization have to do with Bend Real Estate? That is the fucking subject.

What in the fuck does Bend RE have to do with the price of Gold?

Anonymous said...

It's IMPORTANT that we stay focussed on BEND.

Just like fucking BENDBB, everyday it always cali this cali that, cali is falling, calis got buy, ... Nothing to do with fucking Bend.

The topic here should be Bend RE and how it effect our life and survival.

Anonymous said...

If you can't see how well gold has performed as a hedge the past several years and will in the Future - that is your problem, not mine.

*

I can't pass this one up.

2005 - Bend RE only goes up, buy a house in Bend and you'll make 30%/yr forever. Guaranteed, an idiot can get rich in Bend.

2008 - Gold only goes up, buy gold, and you'll get rich, and make 100%/mo forever, ...

FUCKING YOU GOLD BUG.

GET A FUCKING JOB.

Gold is a hedge, throughout modern history, keep 10% of your net worth in Industrial Metals or such, it doesn't matter silver, gold, plat, mercury, ... The problem is in a depression, you only hold paper, and more than likely your company will go bankrupt. Sure you can buy a few dozen kugerrands in the yard, but so fucking what, far better to bury a 1,000 100% silver dollars for a rainy day.

This idea of GETTING RICH by holding gold is BULL-SHIT, 99% of the time these CUNTS ( I say cunts, but they're reall toad dick suckers ) are selling you gold certificates , and they keep the gold in their 'fort knox' ALWAYS a pile of fucking shit. In times like this MANY a good people will lose their money buy gold 'certficates' and such by these cunts selling gold as the ultimate easy way to get rich.

Remember if it were easy to be rich, everyone would be rich, and NOTE everyone throughout history is mostly poor, and just getting by. Only a few understand NOT to listen to fucking morons, and NOT follow the sheep off the fucking cliff.

BUY BEND RE and make 30%/yr forever, .... argggggggh

Anonymous said...

Jambo,

First allow me to introduce myself. My name is Sir Goldbend, I live in Zimbabwe. I am a gold investor. I hold the largest gold mine, and gold repository in Africa.

I found this site today on the google.com, while searching for "gold investment real estate bubble". I must say upon read the materiel herein this distinguised site that our minds have met.

My company Zimbabwe Gold Partners is the leading way today in invest in Gold. For as little as $500 we can provide a 'Gold Note' signifying that you hold one ounce of pure gold in your vault. Today the price of gold is $764 in your USA dollar, yesterday $770. You may wonder how can we offer our 'gold note' for only $500? We can do this for new America customer, and because I like you.

Safe gold investing. No idea of have gold buried in your yard, or kept in the house where the wife may find. Our 'gold note' is safer than gold.

The offer for 'gold-note' today is only good today, tomorrow the gold-note will be sold at the FMV of gold. If you buy $10,000 USD dollar gold-note, we place you in our preferred customer network, and you'll permanently secure a 10% discount for all gold-note.

Redemption is simple and straightforward.

www.fengshuigold.com

Anonymous said...

queston.../why is this blog so fucking addictive?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I found a blog by Woodhill Homes

Surprisingly, the don't mention our little housing bubble blog in their blogroll. Imagine that.

Anonymous said...

cuz we all like to hear ourselves talk?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

queston.../why is this blog so fucking addictive?

Because every post is laced with crack, angel dust, and PCP.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

cuz we all like to hear ourselves talk?

Or we like to hear BendBust tell us we are worthless pieces of shit?

Welp, I'm goning to bed... you worthless bitches.

Anonymous said...

QUICK-FIXES and NADA ONE mention, of the problem the PROBLEM is that BEND get-rich-quick REHO's have refused to pay for infrastructure during the boom years. Currently estimates to fix the flood control in Bend is over $1BILLION dollars.


No quick fixes in the works for Bend's flooding problem
City still in design phase on flooding solutions; meanwhile, storm knocks out power for many

By Christopher Stollar / The Bulletin
Published: October 20. 2007 5:00AM PST

Through the years, whenever rain hasdrenched Bend, underpasses on Franklin Avenue, Third Street and Greenwood Avenue have flooded and become impassable.

Anonymous said...

http://bendinfrastructurefirst.com/

WELCOME TO THE BEND INFRASTRUCTURE FIRST WEBSITE
This Site is for Citizens Wishing to Fix Bend, Oregon's Infrastructure Mess

*

The flooding will get worse,

The following is an excellent site for learning about how the infrastructure got ignored during the Hollern/Kuratek Boom years. This is how Billions were made, by not paying the actual cost of infrastructure.

http://bendinfrastructurefirst.com/

educate yourselves you lazy cunts. Your not marines, your recruits.

Anonymous said...

The below is from current 'business week' magazine, article hot-spots to retire. Note they say two best bargains today are Bend & San Diego. It would be interesting to find the press-release that created this article.


Best Retirement Bargains

Bend
OREGON
Central Oregon's largest city is a onetime timber town that turned to tourism—skiing, camping, hiking, and fishing in the nearby Cascade Mountain Range—for growth. Then, in the late 1990s, Bend became one of those sleepy mountain towns, like Bozeman, Mont., and Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, that started popping up on "Best Places to Retire" lists. Construction boomed, the population doubled (to 75,000)—and so did housing prices.

Bend still has everything that made it so livable in the first place, including clean air, views of snow-capped mountains, and a mild climate that keeps it sunny and dry most of the year. But the influx of Californians, which contributed to the real estate boom, has slowed to a trickle. Just 106 single-family homes were sold in September—two-thirds fewer than in the same month in 2005. The town now has a 15-month inventory of homes for sale. "There's a slump in the market, no question," says Michael Caba, an appraiser at Bratton Appraisal Group.

The best deals are in high-end homes that developers built on speculation. Bill Berger, who runs the local office of Hasson Company Realtors, has watched the asking price of one new 2,700-square-foot house sink from $579,000 in February to $439,000 now. It has oak floors, a great room with fireplace, and a master bedroom on the first floor with French doors opening to a deck with mountain views. "Prices got too high," he says. "Now they are coming back to reality."

Anonymous said...

Or we like to hear BendBust tell us we are worthless pieces of shit?

*

Worthless bitches on a mission from god.

Anonymous said...


Bend still has everything that made it so livable in the first place, including clean air, views of snow-capped mountains, and a mild climate that keeps it sunny and dry most of the year.

[ WOW Bend is just like it used to be, really????? Ya, the REHO's haven't yet how to destroy the sun, we still got some sun. ]



But the influx of Californians, which contributed to the real estate boom, has slowed to a trickle.



[ Houston we have a problem, dumb fucking folks from cali aren't coming, they came we stripped of their 401k's, their wives, their daughters, we fucked their sons in the ass. We got their children hooked on meth.

What would a Bend look like without calis? What are we going to do?? ]

WHO THE FUCK WRITES THIS STUFF? DVA?? City of Bend?? This press release MUST be found, this week the BULL had a story about 'deals' in Bend, but like HOMEE said, "where are the fucking deals", note they're never specific.

Anonymous said...

The best deals are in high-end homes that developers built on speculation.

*

Yes, the best fucking deals are the $600k homes, because there is NO fucking jumbo loan, and unless you have cash, you cannot buy a home for over $417k.

Thus high-end homes over $420k, are now ALL worth $420k. This is NOT a good deal, unless our idea of a good deal is 5,000 sq-ft money burner during retirement. Most retirees want to downsize.

The city of Bend wants 'cash' retiree's to come, because nobody else can buy.

The marketing & pr keeps going on, but where is it coming from, who is paying for it, and who is issuing the press releases???

Please somebody find them.

Anonymous said...

More and more seems like a lot of newspapers are bought to be propanda rags for the prevailing special interests. I understand the exact same kind of people [developers/RE's] bought the local rag in Sand Point/Coeur d'Alene ID and publish the same kind of self-serving tripe.

*

Sand Point Idaho, is the sister city of bend. The BULL only exists to sell real estate. The SORE only exists to promote events, which draw suckers to Bend.

Bend & Sand-Pt only exist so racists can flee California to all white gated community's.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I see snow... and 5% knocked off...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

But the influx of Californians, which contributed to the real estate boom, has slowed to a trickle.

I'm surprised they admitted that. "Slowed to a trickle"? I'm sort of surprised they even admitted a causal connection ever existed between Cali hordes & Bend RE prices.

Anonymous said...

I'm sort of surprised they even admitted a causal connection ever existed between Cali hordes & Bend RE prices.

*

Honestly, I think they're making a positive out of a positive. This kind of talk is what got 'precious' banned from BendBB. But the fact is that cali's are gobblins. The fact they're no longer coming, could be a green light to retirees all over the world that Bend just might have a chance to recover.

Now if we can just get the dog-shit eating cunts over at bend-bb to go back to cali.

Anonymous said...

The below is from realtors.com, but its so funny, I just had to post it, note its from 1/31/06, but just read the promises, and think about how much of it is true. Especially the part about how friendly everyone in their SUV's are,...

*

For_Immediate_Release:

January 31, 2006 (Press Release)
Bend Oregon Real Estate

I have lived in Bend Oregon for over six years now and I have been serving the Bend Oregon Real Estate
Agents and Brokers as a webmaster. I have watched the Central Oregon real estate market grow and I would
like to share what I know about the Bend Oregon Region.

Washington State - 02/01/2006 - Bend Oregon Real Estate.

If you like Americana living and a slow pace, then Bend Oregon is for you. There is a saying there.
"there is normal time, and there is Central Oregon time". The people are down to earth and the schools
are calm and not infected with large city problems like gangs and heavy drugs.

If your want to live in Bend, Oregon, You should know:
- The sun shines all the time, but can get cold in the winters.
- You need to learn how to say hello more to strangers.
- Do not be in a hurry, its Central Oregon.
- Your get a lot of real estate for your dollars..

Here is some important realities to know:
- Cost of living is the same as the cities, yet wages are lower.
- Bend Oregon does have pretty good medical support, however you may have to wait longer for appointments..
- People in Central Oregon really do know how to drive in the snow.
_ Nothing stops when it snows, life goes on including school.

Bend Oregon Real Estate is getting higher prices by the day, however is much lower than the big cities.
The hard part is how to make a living. It is always best to have your own business to bring over, if possible.
Living in Central Oregon is good for the soul and good for the family.

Anonymous said...

Holy fucking shit homee, look at this DVA gets a 1/2 MILLION to market PR for BEND-RE, and the fucking person is married to the city-editor of the BULL. Please also note that this is date 10/17/2007, so now we know why ALL the fucking marketing this week. THE city fucking budget for RE promotion is $1 MILLION, and DVA gets fucking HALF.

Bend DVA writer Tim Neville, who's married to The Bulletin's city editor

*

Bend, Ore., tourism agency hopes to put town in national spotlight (The Bulletin, Bend, Ore.)
By Jeff McDonald, The Bulletin, Bend, Ore.McClatchy-Tribune Regional News

Oct. 17--Still basking in the glow of a label by Outside magazine in August as the Pacific Northwest's best recreation town to live in, Bend's tourism-promotion agency wants to spread the word of the city's many attributes to a broader national audience.

The public relations firm for the Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau hatched a plan Tuesday, with support from the agency's board of directors, that tourism representatives hope will shine the national media spotlight on the city for a price cheaper than paid advertisements.

The visitor bureau plans to host six separate "media familiarization tours" for which it will invite writers representing national magazines, plan their itineraries and cover their expenses.

The tours, planned to begin in February, will involve the coordinated efforts of several different segments of Bend's tourism industry, including winter recreation, cycling, fly-fishing, golf, and food and dining.

"Bend has a story that merits telling to a broader audience than the Pacific Northwest," said Doug LaPlaca, the president and chief executive of the visitor bureau. "Public relations is the most effective and affordable medium to tell our story to a national and international audience."

The visitor bureau, which contracts with DVA Advertising & Public Relations of Bend to generate media exposure for the city as a tourist destination, has $50,000 allotted for public relations out of its marketing and advertising budget of $478,500. The bureau's total budget for the fiscal year that began July 1 is $852,000 and is allocated by the city of Bend.

The agency will take advantage of a $50 media round-trip airfare from Horizon Air and a $100 round-trip airfare from SkyWest Airlines, LaPlaca said. SkyWest Airlines Inc. operates as United Express and Delta Connection. Other corporate partners could include Bainbridge Island, Wash.-based Sage Manufacturing, which makes fly-fishing rods, he said.

Local tourism providers will be asked to pick up writers' expenses in return for increased exposure in the articles that are expected to be written, he said.

"We will ask our local lodging, dining and recreation providers to put their best food forward so that when these journalists come to town, they will have something to write about," LaPlaca said.

At least one tourism promoter said he would be willing to support the plan, as long as it could produce tangible results.

"The value depends on what you want to do," said Peter Bowers, the owner of The Patient Angler in Bend. "A lot of writers call me, and I do what I can to help them out. But a lot of people are looking for a freebie. I need to be cautious where I spend my time and money."

LaPlaca, who assumed his leadership post Aug. 6, has said his primary focus has been finding out what the visitor bureau can do to help spark different segments of the city's tourism industry. Bend has about 1 million overnight visitors annually who spend about $95 per day, contributing to Central Oregon's $498-million-per-year tourism economy, according to a 2005 report from the bureau.

For the first familiarization tour in February, which will coincide with Bend Winterfest, the visitor bureau and DVA will invite writers from Powder and Snowboarder magazines, as well as the North American Snow-sports Journalists Association.

The writers will get a scheduled itinerary that could include skiing and after-skiing entertainment like spa treatments and downtown dining.

Its local partners for the February campaign would include Mt. Bachelor ski area, Wanderlust Tours, and lodging and dining operators, according to DVA.

In May, the visitor bureau would invite writers representing publications that include Triathlete, Road and Bike magazines to partner with local companies such as Bend Bike 'N Sport, Cog Wild Bicycle Tours and Central Oregon Trail Alliance.

Other media tours in June, July, August and October would shine the spotlight on the area's fly-fishing, general travel, golf, and food and dining segments, according to DVA. Publications represented by writers would include Field & Stream, Better Homes & Gardens, Golf Magazine and Gourmet magazine, according to DVA.

"Our efforts now are geared toward generating specific feature stories on Bend," said Justin Yax, public relations director for DVA. "The familiarization tours would allow us to be more comprehensive." Additionally, DVA will pitch story ideas directly to publications that typically do not send writers to familiarization events, Yax said.

The three-quarter-page article in Outside magazine, which has a circulation of roughly 650,000, came as a result of collaboration between DVA, Bend writer Tim Neville, who's married to The Bulletin's city editor, and Outside's editorial staff, Yax said.

The article ranked Bend as the best place to live in the Pacific Northwest for cities with fewer than 100,000 people.

To see more of The Bulletin, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.bendbulletin.com

Copyright (c) 2007, The Bulletin, Bend, Ore.

Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services. For reprints, email tmsreprints@permissionsgroup.com, call 800-374-7985 or 847-635-6550, send a fax to 847-635-6968, or write to The Permissions Group Inc., 1247 Milwaukee Ave., Suite 303, Glenview, IL 60025, USA. ALK, SKYW,

Anonymous said...

The visitor bureau plans to host six separate "media familiarization tours" for which it will invite writers representing national magazines, plan their itineraries and cover their expenses.

*

BINGO, ol bend-bust said he would find out why the fucking 'business week' had a story,

Here's the deal if your a writer for a big mag, you come to bend, we pay, we get you REHO pussy, we put you in a hotel, and we feed you lobster sushi at the DEEP. In return you talk the talk about Bend Oregon.

Price?? 1/2Million to DVA to bring in the cunts, and another 1/2 million to pay for their service.

Please SOMEBODY fire more than just anderson.

HOMEE you or someone has got to do a full story on this, or perhaps BEM if he wasn't so thin skinned.

Anonymous said...

"The value depends on what you want to do," said Peter Bowers, the owner of The Patient Angler in Bend. "A lot of writers call me, and I do what I can to help them out. But a lot of people are looking for a freebie. I need to be cautious where I spend my time and money."

*

No problem, our REHO's give freebie's all the time. No worry all the taxpayer money you can spend on R&R here in Bend.

Bend is an economic freefall, and a MILLION DOLLARS is being spent on dining by DVA. How in the FUCK does DVA get this money. WHO in DVA is married to the Bend City Treasurer?

WHY in the fuck does city-hall waste money on this shit.

I think the above pretty much says it ALL, is all about freebie's, come to Bend, get a free lift ticket, ... Write a little story. What will come of this is more writers will come, Bend is FULL of fucking shit, that it has to BRIBE people to write about this ghost-town.

DVA is just like KURATEK, DVA is also the marketing of Bandon, OR, where the golf-course, is connected to Tetherow, and they both use the same PR.

WHY is taxpayer money being used to MAKE BAUHOFER money? Hollern is the SORE for events, why do they need the little-people to finance their marketing??

Anonymous said...

"I can't pass this one up.

2005 - Bend RE only goes up, buy a house in Bend and you'll make 30%/yr forever. Guaranteed, an idiot can get rich in Bend.

2008 - Gold only goes up, buy gold, and you'll get rich, and make 100%/mo forever, ...

FUCKING YOU GOLD BUG.

GET A FUCKING JOB.

Gold is a hedge, throughout modern history, keep 10% of your net worth in Industrial Metals or such, it doesn't matter silver, gold, plat, mercury, ... The problem is in a depression, you only hold paper, and more than likely your company will go bankrupt. Sure you can buy a few dozen kugerrands in the yard, but so fucking what, far better to bury a 1,000 100% silver dollars for a rainy day.

This idea of GETTING RICH by holding gold is BULL-SHIT, 99% of the time these CUNTS ( I say cunts, but they're reall toad dick suckers ) are selling you gold certificates , and they keep the gold in their 'fort knox' ALWAYS a pile of fucking shit. In times like this MANY a good people will lose their money buy gold 'certficates' and such by these cunts selling gold as the ultimate easy way to get rich.

Remember if it were easy to be rich, everyone would be rich, and NOTE everyone throughout history is mostly poor, and just getting by. Only a few understand NOT to listen to fucking morons, and NOT follow the sheep off the fucking cliff.

BUY BEND RE and make 30%/yr forever, .... argggggggh"

Comment:

Probably one of the stupidist and emotional worthless rants I've read here. Are you really this dumb? or just that much of an azzhole? Can you not interpret or comprehend correcty? The answers are clear - NO you cannot.
Probably drunk early on a Friday night with nowhere to go and no friends. So your hate filled, almost insane rantings spew forth.
You don't have a friggin clue about investing and making money, so crawl back into your bottle and miserable existence. LMAO

Anonymous said...

Justin Yax, public relations director for DVA. "The familiarization tours would allow us to be more comprehensive." Additionally, DVA will pitch story ideas directly to publications that typically do not send writers to familiarization events, Yax said.

*

DVA, THE SORE, THE BULL; All on the city payroll, all with one mission in life, to sell RE resort time-shares to visitor suckers.

THIS IS NOT going to get Bend out of the toilet.

This is only to keep the wine party's flowing for those involved at tax payers expense.

Anonymous said...

A lot of advertising talent exists in Central-Oregon, OUR ONLY talent.

It's fascinating building plummeting, city-manager fired, but the PR&Marketing at taxpayer expense explodes. Let's hop that they reap the reward. This kind of spending is the WORST ROI in a bad economy.

Certainly ALL these PR & MARKETING folks moved here, and they're just hanging on, and ONLY CITY TAX-PAYER money feeds them, unlike starving realtors, the PR firms control the city-of-bend checkbook.

*

Bend attracts advertising pros
Lifestyle, technology draw creative people to High Desert
By Anna Sowa / The Bulletin
Published: February 22. 2006 5:00AM PST

A small advertisement with a big typo brought Brian Bowler to Bend more than 10 years ago.

The Wall Street Journal advertisement listed the sale of Mandala Agency, an advertising, design and public relations services company in Bend.

"It said, 'Successful ad agency in small, unattractive town in the Northwest,' or something like that," said Bowler, now Mandala chairman. "That's what drew my eye. I wouldn't have bothered otherwise, I thought it was hilarious and I had to talk with the people who did that."

The ad was supposed to have said, "Attractive town." The former Mandala owner who placed it was horrified by the mistake, Bowler said, but it brought him to Bend, where he purchased the company in 1994.

"I, like everybody else, fell in love with Bend," said Bowler, who moved here from Reno, Nev. He had lived in England until 1989, when he came to America.

"It's got a very appealing personality," he said. "It's got no ego, no big chip on its shoulder."

These characteristics have attracted a growing number of talented advertising representatives and businesses to Central Oregon, where technology allows them to connect to clients globally.

"Through the growth of the Internet, you don't have to be 100 yards from your client," Bowler said. "You can live in wonderful places like this."

Terry Rankin, president of the Advertising Federation of Central Oregon, or Ad Fed, said a lot of advertising talent exists in Central Oregon.

"Central Oregon is a mecca for creative people," Rankin said. "We pull in creatives from around the country who have huge advertising agency backgrounds."

Mandala creative director Paul Grignon is one such "creative." Grignon relocated here from San Francisco in 2001 to raise his family, ski and work in a smaller city.

"The dream is to be able to do the same job without the 1 1/2-hour commute in the big city," he said, adding that home prices also aren't as steep in Bend.

From Bend, advertising creations can reach around the world.

Bend's DVA Advertising recently launched an international advertising campaign for Lake Forest, Calif.-based Felt Bicycles. DVA completed print ads that will be used in international campaigns through Felt's European offices in Germany, according to DVA Public Relations Director Justin Yax.

Those ads may be translated into five to seven languages, running in cycling publications throughout Europe, South America, Asia and Australia.

Mandala recently launched a campaign for the National Lacrosse League's Portland Lumber Jax. Mandala's national clients include Mobile, Ala.-based Teledyne Continental Motors and the Bay Area's Mountain Hardware. International clients include Hacienda Pinilla, a resort in Costa Rica.

Central Oregon's advertising industry recently celebrated its far-reaching talent at the annual Drake Awards, hosted by Ad Fed.

The awards were held Feb. 10 at Sunriver Resort and honored advertising excellence in all media groups.

This year, more than 50 different companies entered the competition, Rankin said.

The top award at the competition, "Best of Show," went to tbd advertising for its "What if there was no river" brochure for the Deschutes River Conservancy.

Some of the regional clients represented by Drake Awards recipients include Deschutes Brewery, Oregon Chai, Bob Thomas Car Co. and Central Oregon Visitors Association.

The awards showcased what industry executives outside Central Oregon say is a rapid increase of talent migrating to the region from big cities.

"From my perspective on this side of the hill, I've always noticed that the (ad) agencies in the Bend market were capable of attracting a higher level of talent than one would suspect," said Joe Radloff, senior account executive for Mandala's Portland office.

Like Bowler, Radloff said the quality of life attracts professionals who tap the area's growth and telecommunications infrastructure.

Central Oregon is fostering a group of young, creative industry professionals from California, Florida, the East Coast and Portland, he said. The advertising newcomers are providing an enviable market in Central Oregon.

"Bend is growing as a talent pool, which is a good thing for all of us in the (advertising) industry," Radloff said. "It's good for all of us to tap into these talent pools and draw from it. It raises the competitive level and challenges us to be better. We need to be highly competitive, drawing the right talent for our clients and prospective clients."

New Central Oregon professionals have an advertising expertise that will push the industry to higher levels of creativity and productivity, Radloff added.

"In Bend, you have an exorbitant amount of affluent, highly educated and talented people," he said. "You'll continue to see that trend continue. You'll see younger, more talented and creative people across the board in industry being drawn to the region."

Paul Evers, managing partner and creative director of tbd advertising, agrees.

"The quality of work has increased significantly over the last 16 years," Evers said. "(The Drake Awards) is the biggest event for the Central Oregon advertising community, it gives us an opportunity to come together and see all the work other agencies and design firms have done throughout the year."

Drake Awards winners will compete in the second level of the three-tiered competition, the District 11 competition. Those winners are eligible for the national American Advertising Federation competition in June.

The awards are a way to show off local talent, Rankin said. She expects Central Oregon to do well at the nationals.

"This is a pretty big deal," Rankin said of the competition. "Everyone from the small shop to the biggest agencies out of New York City will be there."

Even Central Oregon's smallest businesses have a fighting chance.

"Just because you're a little (advertising) agency doesn't mean you won't win," Rankin said. "With the Drake Awards, we're starting at the local level and now we're working up to a national level."

Anna Sowa can be reached at 541-383-0304 or at asowa@bendbulletin.com.
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Anonymous said...

DVA is BEND-PR&MARKETING, BUT WHY? WHO DO THEY BLOW?

www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/docs/minutes_04_04_07_Work_Session.pdf

Presentation by Visitor and Convention Bureau Board on Budget
Gary Oliver Board Chair of the VCB presented the Bureau’s accomplishments in
preparation for Council consideration of the VCB budget request. VCB has
successfully accomplished goals for 2006/07 as presented to the Council last
year. Hotel occupancy increased 5.5 percent in 2006, and TRT tax revenues
have also increased.
Marcia Movey, Interim Director of the VCB, discussed board leadership. There
has not been a break in the work of the VCB. She acknowledged the actions of
the board in dealing with the leadership. The board placed the director on
administrative leave when it became aware of a potential problem. An
accounting firm was brought in to review accounting. The board set up a process
to develop policies and procedures in the areas of personnel and finance. The
board hired Ms. Movey, and she is pleased to assist them in the transition.
Mr. Oliver explained that an executive search is underway. An executive search
committee was established. The board defined what was being sought in a
director. By the close of the application deadline, there were 39 applications
received. Once a director is found, Ms. Movey will transition out, while the new
director steps in. Oversight measures have been put into place for the board to
oversee the VCB.
Maureen Mattingly, Communications Manager for the VCB, discussed the
success in the increase in tourism. Judd Smith with Zsmart Web Marketing
discussed the success of visitbend.com and the increased traffic to the site.
Justin Yax with DVA Public Relations and Advertising discussed the public
relations successes over the last year. He distributed information about the
publications that have recently featured Bend. The dollar value of these stories
is over $1 million. Mr. Yax discussed the public relations plan for the VCB.
Mayor Abernethy asked how the dollar value is ascertained from the stories and
Mr. Yax explained the value is related to the number of pages and how much
advertising would cost in the publication.
Mary Ramos of DVA Public Relations and Advertising discussed the Visitors
Guide that DVA produced. A visitor guide is a lead fulfillment piece sent to
potential visitors upon request. Eli Ashley, Executive Director of the Tower
Theatre, discussed cooperative event marketing. VCB is providing some funds
to leverage funding from other agencies. The funds will help to generate more
events.
Mr. Oliver discussed budget priorities for next fiscal year. The VCB Board asks
the Council to approve a five percent increase to the budget. VCB is receptive to
working with Council on funding for special projects.

Anonymous said...

An interesting rhetorical question on the PR budget, its supposedly to attract tourists. But it clear that the 'business week' article was about attracting retirees looking for an RE bargain.

Which one is it? Are the free dinners and flights for national magazines, are they for tourist magazines, or are they for real-estate buyers?

There's a lot of talk about the $500 Million tourist dollars ( I doubt its even close to that anymore ), but the fact is what proof is there that spending taxpayer money on flights and food, and wine, ... on Magazine Editors actually help Bend tourism??

It seems that this waste of taxpayer money only exists to keep DVA in business.

Anonymous said...

Central Oregon is fostering a group of young, creative industry professionals from California, Florida, the East Coast and Portland, he said. The advertising newcomers are providing an enviable market in Central Oregon.

*

There you GO PR&MARKETING CUNTS take over city-hall and bring more of themselves here from cali&florida, ... HOW DO YOU SPELL ECONOMIC CATASTROPHE?? DO YOU ALL KNOW WHERE THIS CON JOB IS GOING??

CREATIVE, SPECIAL, GOLDEN, IMAGE PEOPLE, ... NOT a real fucking working person anywhere in BEND

The BEST PR&MARKETING THAT money can buy.

Anonymous said...

BINGO over 300 comments on one post cycle.

Everyone gets a free beer @ Pegasus, courtesy of Duncan.

Anonymous said...

The top award at the competition, "Best of Show," went to tbd advertising for its "What if there was no river" brochure for the Deschutes River Conservancy.


*

If there was NO river going through fucking Bend, then we would call this place Redmond.

Duncan McGeary said...

So 200 beers for Bendbust, and 100 for everyone else?

Got it.

Duncan McGeary said...

No. To hell with that. I don't even like you people.

I wouldn't want to belong to any club that would have ME as a member.

:>

Duncan McGeary said...

err....smiley face?

Anonymous said...

How the city markets Bend as Golf Resort
www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/docs/VCB_marketing_and_business_plan.pdf

How your money was spent
www.VisitBend.com

The BEND-BRAND

STRATEGIES
PRINT ADVERTISING
Overview
Advertising allows the VCB to consistently and reliably reach target audiences in priority geographic
areas with messages appropriate to each audience and consistent with the Bend brand. The
advertising program can be utilized both for awareness building (brand/image), as well as to elicit
specific actions from the target (tactical).
Other Advertising Strategies
• Run seasonal campaigns
• Advertise primarily within short and long drive markets
• Utilize multiple media when feasible
• Utilize co-op dollars when available by partnering with key events
• Drive visitors to the website for additional information and to request a visitor guide
• Create consistency between advertising, public relations and collateral in terms of messaging and
brand

Media Kit Development
The VCB will research, write, produce and distribute a bi-annual press kit (Spring/Summer and
Fall/Winter) to approximately 200 targeted “A” and “B” list media. These kits will be available as a
CD-ROM or DVD-ROM, and will include 7-9 press releases specific to Bend. Materials will also be
available in the online pressroom at http://www.VisitBend.com. Additional distribution will take place
in the form of an HTML cover letter e-mail to media, with links directly to specific press releases
online. Individual follow-up would take place to a prioritized group of approximately 50 media for
each press kit distribution

http://www.VisitBend.com.

Bend Economy Man said...

At least one tourism promoter said he would be willing to support the plan, as long as it could produce tangible results.

I have to admit that DVA's logic sounds tempting - much better to bribe the writers and get editorial coverage than just to pay for an ad. I can't imagine that a paid ad would be more effective than an article. It's pathetic that these all-expenses-paid junkets are how these stories get written, but, hey, it's the real world.

But I agree with BendBust that it's not 100% clear that the agenda isn't real estate promotion, rather than tourism promotion. The Outside article was about best places to live, the BusinessWeek article is about best places to retire...

Anonymous said...

Bend only exists to Sell Real Estate.

Why would anyone think otherwise?

It's fascinating that we have a $1 million dollar tourist budget, and 1/2 is spent on DVA, and the other 1/2 on all expense paid vacations of 'nattional-writers' to Bend.

It would be fascinating to DEMAND an audit of ALL the money spent, as clearly this is ALL tax payer dollars spent on entertainment. This is fine and dandy in the oil business, to hire whores, and pay for vacations to get large contracts. In this case we're only talking about getting a writer to write a story about Bend. Why not just send them a box of chocolate and save $999k??

I agree with BEM that the reality of PR & Marketing is ugly, that this is how it works. That said I have been in PR & Marketing my whole working life, and we have been told that OUR BEND PR & Marketing crowd are the MOST creative, smart, intelligent, ...

Thus if they're so smart, why do they have to resort to the lowest level of getting story's written, by providing all expense paid free junkets for MEDIA FAMILYS to BEND??

I wonder if the BULL has had any free dinners, or lift passes, or golf games, for there positive storys??

You guys know whats going on here, we know the press is positive this is why. Our city is being looted, and everybody is getting free cars, food, travel, hotels, golf, skiing, bikes, ... All on the tax payer nickle.

Anonymous said...

The Outside article was about best places to live, the BusinessWeek article is about best places to retire...

*

Only a few months ago we learned the 'outside' story was a plant, but we didn't know until now that the pay-off was a plane-ticket, free bikes, free food, hotel, the guy probably brought his wife & kids, ...

Everybody doesn't do it this way, because if they did the editors wouldn't be able to get through the door. Bend had the number one over-value for two years in a row, Bend is over valued and over marketed and this is why. Because we're in essence paying people to write positive story's.

Everybody doesn't do it this way, as if they did the price would be higher than a plane ticket, hotel, and food, .... unless we are giving them cash under the table, but only a tough look at the budget would ever tell.

Where in the HELL is the city auditor? Where is anderson he must be pissed, perhaps we can get him to talk??

Anonymous said...

Advertising allows the VCB to consistently and reliably reach target audiences in priority geographic
areas with messages appropriate to each audience and consistent with the Bend brand.

*

What is the target geographic priority?? All we ever hear is cali and florida

Anonymous said...

What is the target geographic priority?? All we ever hear is cali and florida

*

The 'bend brand' is RE, and BEND PR&MARKETING is trying to outfox, cali & florida, the other two horses that only exist to sell RE heaven on earth to blue-hairs.

There is still a little money out there, and besides with all the baby-boomer's retiring, you know they need to die in Bend, they just don't realize it yet.

This week Social-Security started paying bene's to Baby-Boomer #1, she was a gal from 1947. In time how will Bend provide housing for people who ONLY HAVE SSI income?? Given that BEND & HOLLERN, Inc. have taken it to themselves to make Bend the #1 SSI dependency mecca. Show me the plans for a room&board for $1200/mo.

Show me??

The baby-boomer have been looted so bad since dot-com, I just don't see anything but poor retires coming to Bend.

How in the HELL is the county going to pay for all the geriatric services for the senile? Demented? and Infirm? These people will have no money, they'll be destitute.

Everybody knows that rich retiree's are NOT who is coming to Bend, its the frugal set. The WHOLE PR&MARKETING in the "Business Week" is that Bend is a bargain, we're marketing this place to coupon-clippers, and Walmart shoppers.

Anonymous said...

Homer,

For the next blog show an army of old farts with canes, marching from all over America to Bend so they can die.

It was 'build and they'll come', now its PR&MARKET and they'll come and die.

I think that the next Boss-Hoss-Hollern is going to be a funeral director, or is there already a Brook Funeral Services??

Anonymous said...

The following is very interesting, and catching national outrage. This guy Roberts explaining why his ilk can't buy food. Nothing we don't know, but the important thing is fingers are being pointed. The MTG brokers (NBA) are pissed off totally.

The RE Quiz
By Ralph Roberts

RISMEDIA, Oct. 18, 2007-You have been reading about the mortgage meltdown and seeing daily news reports about the record number of foreclosures. Mortgage lenders are dropping like flies. Even large companies such as Countrywide Mortgage are feeling the crunch, having to borrow billions of dollars to keep their doors open. Based on what you have read, heard, and seen in the media, maybe you feel as though you have a pretty good grasp of what is going on and what caused it, but how much do you really know?

To find out how savvy you really are about this mortgage meltdown, take the following single-question quiz:

Why have so many mortgage lenders gone out of business?
A. Homeowners are unable to make their payments.
B. Massive amounts of real estate and mortgage fraud.

If you are among the multitudes of the ill-informed, you probably chose A. And if this were the 1950s, perhaps you would have been correct. Back in the 1950s when banks loaned money directly to people who were unable to repay the debt, the banks took a direct hit to their bottom line. They felt the pain.

In the current system, most banks rely on brokers to originate the mortgage loans. These brokers typically have loan officers who work for them and are in charge of selling loans to consumers, helping the consumers fill out their loan applications, and performing other tasks to expedite the loan process. Loan originators receive a commission for every loan that’s approved, and because they are lending someone else’s money, they take on risk only indirectly.

When someone borrows $300,000 to purchase a home, for example, the broker receives 2 points at closing for a total of $6,000. They then package the loan with other loans and sell it to the market at 104% or $312,000. In this case, the originator just “earned” $18,000 off the mortgage loan-the $6,000 commission plus the $12,000 markup.

When bad loans are traced back to mortgage fraud, misrepresentations, and misdeeds, originators takes a double hit. They are forced to buy back the bad loans, and the lender cuts off access to future transactions. With huge chunks of money flowing out and little or no money flowing in, the mortgage originator is forced to close up shop. That is what is currently happening and why we are now seeing a mortgage meltdown.

When interest rates were low and housing prices were soaring, mortgage fraud was rampant, but the problem remained hidden because homeowners were awash in equity. Credit was easy to get, and mortgage brokers and loan officers made it even easier. If an applicant couldn’t qualify for a particular loan, the loan officer would simply encourage the applicant to fudge the numbers or would fudge the numbers on the applicant’s behalf. If a home buyer wanted a larger loan to cash out some money at closing, you could always find an applicant to accommodate-inflating the appraisal to make the property appear to be worth more than it really was. Loan officers were tripping over each other to approve risky loans and nab their commissions.

MILA, a subprime wholesale lender that was based in Mountlake Terrace, Washington shut down during the spring of 2007, primarily due to the fact that its loan officers were responsible for huge numbers of fraudulent loans. Several employees who refused to go on the record reported that they passed along proof of fraud committed by at least one of the company’s loan officers. This person made so much money for the company that instead of firing its employee, MILA relocated and promoted the person.

Now that the housing market is in a slump, it’s as though the water has been drained out of the pond, and now we can see what is at the bottom… a whole lot of muck.

Ralph Roberts is a real estate fraud expert and activist and co-author of “Protect Yourself from Real Estate and Mortgage Fraud: Preserving the American Dream of Homeownership” (Kaplan, August 2007).

Anonymous said...

www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/docs/VCB_marketing_and_business_plan.pdf

1. Bend is the west’s premier year-round destination.

[ Holy Homer where have we heard this before?? ]


2. Bend is situated on the sunny eastern slope of the Cascades, with 250 days of sunshine annually
(dispel any rainy Oregon perceptions).

3. Bend’s recreation opportunities are virtually limitless, and are on par with any other destination.

[ don't take your dog skiing, don't worry about atv's we made them illegal, don't worry about red-neck's they're all in jail ]
4. Bend’s arts/culture scene has long been a key attraction, and continues to grow.
[ real estate as art gallerys, 12 downtown ]

5. Bend’s dining and nightlife has experienced tremendous growth, with some of the best dining to
be found anywhere.
[ super burrito, hans, .. ]

6. Bend has convenient year-round access via non-stop flights from Seattle, Portland, San
Francisco, Salt Lake City, Los Angeles and Las Vegas.

7. Visitors to Bend co-mingle with locals in any given location, on any given night.
[ We rape cali's, floridians ]

8. The Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau is the resource for visitors and the authority for Bend
information.

9. Calls to action: www.VisitBend.com, 1-877-245-8484, downtown visitor center.

www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/docs/VCB_marketing_and_business_plan.pdf

Anonymous said...

1. Bend is the west’s premier year-round destination.

COMPETITION

Any Northwestern (British Columbia, Washington, Idaho, Oregon & Northern California) destination
that features a similar mix of product attributes, particularly outdoor recreation, scenery, scenic
downtown, arts and culture, etc. For example:
• Whistler, B.C.
• Sun Valley, ID
• Oregon Coast
• Sunriver, OR
• Mt. Hood, OR
• Columbia Gorge, OR
• Winthrop, WA
• Lake Chelan, WA
• Lake Tahoe, CA
• Lake Shasta, CA

www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/docs/VCB_marketing_and_business_plan.pdf

Anonymous said...

http://www.recontrustco.com/upcoming_counties.aspx?state=Oregon

Foreclosures @ recontrust.com, its free, and note BEND is #2 in the state, soon we'll be #1. The PR & Marketing is working.

County Number of Properties
Baker 2
Benton 3
Clackamas 32
Clatsop 6
Columbia 6
Coos 7
Crook 3
Curry 7
Deschutes 45
Douglas 9
Grant 1
Jackson 44
Jefferson 5
Josephine 14
Klamath 9
Lake 1
Lane 40
Lincoln 8
Linn 9
Malheur 2
Marion 23
Morrow 2
Multnomah 87
Polk 15
Tillamook 4
Umatilla 4
Union 1
Wallowa 1
Washington 44
Yamhill 13

Anonymous said...

I think below is what REALLY matters, how much are did foreclosures sell for, when they fall below $100k, that's when you know its going to get interesting.

20375 ROCCA WAY
BEND , OR 97701
Deschutes County
TS # : 2007-18394
Oct 19 2007 10:00 AM $265,500.00 Beneficiary
19214 INDIAN SUMMER ROAD
BEND , OR 97702
Deschutes County
TS # : 2007-14238
Oct 5 2007 10:00 AM $200,000.00

Look at this second home, this was a $500k hood in 2005, now going for $200k, how do you say -60%????

Anonymous said...

Bend is an old wash-out logging town, that was taken over by common real estate hustlers, and fraudulent mortgage brokers. Bend is a Fraud, #1 Fraud town in the western USA, an excellent reason to travel. Come to bend to retire. We have tons of taxpayer money available for your comfort during your autumn years.

.......

1. Bend is the west’s premier year-round destination.

[ where have we heard this before?? Seems like fucking daily at this site. ]


2. Bend is situated on the sunny eastern slope of the Cascades, with 250 days of sunshine annually
(dispel any rainy Oregon perceptions).
[ so is death valley ]

3. Bend’s recreation opportunities are virtually limitless, and are on par with any other destination.

[ $400 ticket for dog off leash, forest-service has banned all human activity, ... yeh, without limits; who are these cunts that write this copy kidding? Are they in India? ]

4. Bend’s arts/culture scene has long been a key attraction, and continues to grow.
[ real estate as art gallerys, 12 downtown; homee,marge let's go to bend, oregon so we can tour real estate art gallerys,... ]

5. Bend’s dining and nightlife has experienced tremendous growth, with some of the best dining to
be found anywhere.
[ super burrito, hans, ... success is the kiss of death in Bend, only olive garden, red-robin will survive; a good read to visit bend ]

6. Bend has convenient year-round access via non-stop flights from Seattle, Portland, San
Francisco, Salt Lake City, Los Angeles and Las Vegas.
[ yeh, redmond INTL airport, and that adorable one hour drive/crawl to your destination motel on I-97 ]

7. Visitors to Bend co-mingle with locals in any given location, on any given night.
[ We rape cali's, floridians; yeh, the fucking 'residents' just love to rob, rape, and buttfuck the tourists, real kind and gentle place, all daughters are available 24/7 for tourist amusement ]

8. The Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau is the resource for visitors and the authority for Bend
information.

[ this is why I came to bend, because the B-VCB is the best, I wanted to be in the best place, with the most foreclosures ]

9. Calls to action: www.VisitBend.com, 1-877-245-8484, downtown visitor center.

[ and lastly, the #9 reason why Bend, because of the web whether its visitbend.com or gobend.com, I just wet in the shorts thinking about these two websites ]

Anonymous said...

20375 ROCCA WAY
BEND , OR 97701
Deschutes County
TS # : 2007-18394
Oct 19 2007 10:00 AM $265,500.00 Beneficiary
19214 INDIAN SUMMER ROAD
BEND , OR 97702
Deschutes County
TS # : 2007-14238
Oct 5 2007 10:00 AM $200,000.00

Look at this second home, this was a $500k hood in 2005, now going for $200k, how do you say -60%????


This is clearly not the RE market.
I actually follwed this sale up! The home sold for 305k or so 18 mos ago. The bank was offering the bidding up at 200k to start interest in the sale but they had a reserve sale price of $265k. The prices are dropping the prices slowly, but nothing is selling as I see. I think on the open market that place in DRW would sell in a few day at 230k. There are still some buyers. I rent in one of the new subdivisions on 27th for half the mortgage! A place a few doors down was sold for 275k in a week, down from the 382k that they were selling the same model for 12-14 mos ago. This is the desperation that I see with the builders. They do have some alot of pressure now to cut and sell one home at a time for a loss, but are not finishing the homes complete to leave the new home purchaser "options" like drywall and flooring.

Anonymous said...

19214 INDIAN SUMMER ROAD
BEND , OR 97702
Deschutes County
TS # : 2007-14238
Oct 5 2007 10:00 AM $200,000.00

*

The record shows the home sold for $200k, more than likely the bank bought the house, because there were NO FUCKING BUYERS.

The fact is this is NOT a foreclosure record. This is a SOLD record.

It SOLD for $200k.

Sure they wanted $305k, last year, but in 2005 they were all ASKING $500k.

Last winter was like this winter, everyone knew it was OVER. That's why I used 2005, it was PEAK in 2005, that's when everyone was coming to Bend to buy anything to get rich.

Anonymous said...

19214 INDIAN SUMMER ROAD
BEND , OR 97702
Deschutes County
TS # : 2007-14238
Oct 5 2007 10:00 AM $200,000.00

*

The record shows the home sold for $200k, more than likely the bank bought the house, because there were NO FUCKING BUYERS.

The fact is this is NOT a foreclosure record. This is a SOLD record.

It SOLD for $200k.

Sure they wanted $305k, last year, but in 2005 they were all ASKING $500k.

Last winter was like this winter, everyone knew it was OVER. That's why I used 2005, it was PEAK in 2005, that's when everyone was coming to Bend to buy anything to get rich.

Anonymous said...

I stand corrected,I was following it the first week of October. The gent doing the auction said they had the standing reserve then. I bet they used the 200k for the rightoff and transfered it to a seperate division for sale.

Anonymous said...

Where do you find the sold record?

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