FIRE YOUR REALTOR... TODAY!

Before I get to why you should fire your lazy-ass Realtor, I've been running SQL on BendBB's awesome Googlefied listing data, and found a few interesting things. Here is a short list of the largest declines in specific neighborhoods. The thing to realize is this is Aug data joined with July on the MLS number. It is NOT separate queries run on dissimilar homes: ALL the stats represented were for homes represented in BOTH MONTHS only. So it's sort of like Case-Shiller data, only the exact same homes are compared. These are the biggest August 1 month losses in subdivs with at least 6 homes:

1. Awbrey Point (9 homes) -7.4%
2. Awbrey Heights (7 homes) -5.0%
3. Bonne Home (6 homes) -4.4%
4. Shevlin Crest (7 homes) -4.1%
5. Boyd Acre Crossing (8 homes) -4.0%
6. Center (7 homes) -3.9%
7. Three Pines (9 homes) -3.9%
8. Quail Pine Estates (6 homes) -3.7%
9. Gardenside (10 homes) -3.6%
10. Tillicum Village (6 homes) -3.4%

Here are the 10 largest subdivs & their AVG losses:

1. Deschutes River Woods (61 homes) -2.1%
2. Northwest Crossing (54 homes) -1.3%
3. RiverRim (51 homes) -.7%
4. Broken Top (38 homes) -.9%
5. Awbrey Butte (33 homes) -1.9%
6. River Canyon Estates (27 homes) -1.7%
7. Inn of the 7th (23 homes) -3.3%
8. Lava Ridges (19 homes ) -.6%
9. Whispering Pines (18 homes) -.7%
10. Rivers Edge Village (18 homes) -1.5%

Now, I looked into that Awbrey Point loss of 7.4% on the 9 homes listed there. That's a really substantial loss, with the AVG price on those 9 homes going from $397,911, clear down to $368,600, or over $30K/house. That is a large, almost "concerted" decline. So I looked at the listings, and could quickly see a pattern. EVERY SINGLE home in Awbrey Point was reduced between Sunday, Aug 26 and Wednesday, Aug 29.

It was kicked off on Sunday by Nancy Melrose, of Melrose Realty. She whacked MLS listing 2702963 for a righteous 17.2% markdown (cumulative, 4th price reduction), from $459K, to $379,900. She also spanked MLS 2702961 for 12.9% (cumulative, 2nd reduction), down to $364.9K from $419K. According to BendBB's tables, both these townhomes have been listed since December 2003. Yes, 2003 (although I sort of wonder if that's real) (ADDENDUM: Ooops, that's because they're NOT! These were listed on Mar 12, 2007. My bad...). Strangely, MLS shows construction dates of "2007". And MLS interior shots show them both to be vacant.

Now, of course it's hard to say if it was "reaction" or coincidence, but every single other home in that subdiv was then reduced in the next 3 days. MLS numbers 2705471 (down 8.8%), 2705463 (down 7.8%), 2705470 (down 9.6%), 2705448 (down 7.8%), 2705466 (down 8.5%), and 2705468 (down 9.3%). (There was also another home, MLS 2708395, that was reduced 3.5% on Aug 28).

ALL these homes are listed by a single Realtor, Eileen Dees, at Steve Scott. Now look at her MLS numbers...2705448, 2705466, 2705468, 2705470, 2705471.... Them's builders numbers. Those badboys have been vacant from Day 1, most built in 2006.

I find this sort of interesting. It tells me that either builders are REAL tired of paying carry on these white elephants & want them MOVED, or Realtors are starting to have heart-to-hearts with their clients about waking up & smelling the REALITY. Dees & Melrose seemed to engage in a little competitive reduction here. Hell, maybe it's the same builder with both Realtors and (s)he said SELL! And there may just be the beginnings of a cascading reduction in prices. Sellers & Realtors are LOOKING around and reacting to lower comps by lowering their own price. A price reduction contagion? It could happen....

It's pretty tough to figure out what big swaths of stats like this mean, there's just so much. But it seems telling that in this instance, there is a decided "competition" to mark down price. Completely deluded sellers with ridiculous asking prices seems to have been the rule to date, 100% enabled by their dumbass Realtors. This little Awbrey Point sample seems to indicate that maybe... FINALLY... these people are waking up to the fact that:

1) Ridiculous pricing will simply impede EVER selling
2) If the guy next door marks down, YOU better mark down

These two facts, while almost inanely stupid commonsense, have been largely absent from the Seller Mindset in this town for 5 years. Wildly idiotic prices, and comparable pricing by listing brokers that looks like it was done with a dartboard.

I (used to) pride myself on being able to drive by almost ANY property, and coming within 2-3% of the ask. Hell, I don't even guess anymore. My wife will show me pics in the local mags of homes for sale, and cover up the price, and ask me what I think they're asking (we are an exciting lot). 4-5 years ago I could read the description, and about half the time hit it within $500. Now? Someone could be asking $150K.. or $300K... or a million. I have no idea. This IS NOT usual or normal. It's pie-in-the-sky pricing. And until a fairly well-informed person can guess within 2-3% of what a home owner is asking, our market will remain UNHEALTHY. People HATE uncertainty. Especially when it's uncertainty regarding the largest purchase in their life.

Wow, I've seldom taken such a beating for saying that there actually MAY EXIST some homes in the Bend area worth buying. Even Duncan questioned the Bearish conviction of Paul-doh! I put out the usual caveats, that I thought Bend RE is a BAD INVESTMENT, that this (possible buying of a Bend home) really only works for long term owner/occupiers, and the like. Still, I got whomped. So maybe I'll try one more time to describe what I think about Bend RE prices, in graph form:

See, I think there are "Normal" times for Bend & most cities throughout the World, when RE is priced fairly appropriately given local incomes, or even Conveyor Belt incomes, when appropriate. As was pointed out in a recent Bulletin article, Bend medians in the late 80's were around $50K, while the rest of the US was closer to $100K. We were probably moderately undervalued back then. Our local economics stunk, and consequently so did our home prices. We were the Flint Michigan of Oregon. We had low prices, and we deserved it.

This is in sharp contrast to today. Admittedly, Bends economy has improved vastly from the Bad Old Days. It would have been hard for it to do anything but. But has it improved so radically, that we deserve one of the largest premiums in the country over the national median? I don't think so.

As a matter of fact, I think our high prices will be our undoing. They are proving to be more than just a short-lived affair, and companies are starting to make long term plans based on our high costs. For the most part, they are leaving. This can't be UNDONE. Once they're gone, getting them back will be near impossible. Seaswirl is NOT coming back to Culver. Oregon Woodworking... gone. Columbia Air... On life support. There are many others that are packing up & leaving or are already gone. These companies are dead & gone (or damn close), and they are not coming back. Our city leaders have chosen to expend resources to ramp up industries that are notoriously low paying. Housekeepers CANNOT afford $400,000 homes.

Anyway, the above graph more clearly illustrates what I think about the Bend market. Virtually ALL homes are priced FAR TOO high. FAR TOO HIGH! But there does exist a small (but growing, as prices decline) percentage that are within eyeshot of normalcy. "Eyeshot" being defined as 2.5 STD's above the mean in "Normal" times. I define "normalcy" as $190K, or so, medians in Bend. And there does exist a small number of people who HAVE TO come to Bend, and either by choice or necessity, HAVE to buy a home. I was simply pointing out what I thought were "relatively" inexpensive homes... not straight out inexpensive homes. I don't believe there is even a single INEXPENSIVE home in Cent OR. NOT ONE.

OK, finally for FIRE YOUR LAZY ASS REALTOR. OK, yesterday I was on a beer deprived bender over on BendBB's board, essentially saying that sellers should DEMAND that their Realtors show up to EVERY SINGLE showing of your house. EVERY SINGLE ONE. After all, these are strangers in your house, you have no idea what they are doing, or what they're like. I also pointed out that one of the first persons to look at my house when I was selling initially represented himself as looking at my house "for a client". He was a licensed Realtor, and this "story" later proved to be false. It was kind of weird, this single guy who showed no credentials just wandering through our house. It was creepy. I mean, I don't think he stole anything, but he had no problem lying to me right off the bat. You absolutely should have someone representing you AT EVERY SHOWING. PERIOD. But ESPECIALLY when you are not there. And really, you should NEVER be at a showing, it is your Realtors job to be there. And I got this response, ostensibly from a Realtor:

so question, if I am a listing agent and I have 60 + listings and 6 of them are being shown at the same time, how am i supposed to be at all 6! get a life, if you hire the best they will be busy marketing you home to buyers and other realtors. You don't hire a realtor to attend showings, you hire to spend their money and make an monatary investment in marketing your home at no risk to you. Maybe I should ask you up front to fork over the money to advertise you home...how would that make you feel? Wrong isn't it? then demanding we spend all our time working one single listing, when we have many other to service as well.

Here was my response:

so question, if I am a listing agent and I have 60 + listings and 6 of them are being shown at the same time, how am i supposed to be at all 6!

Excuse for not doing your job. Here's the solution, listen close:

LIMIT YOUR LISTINGS!

I know. I came up with that in less than 48 hrs. I've been asked to speak at MIT. Nobel Peace Prize, that is.

get a life, if you hire the best they will be busy marketing you home to buyers and other realtors.

2 WORDS: STOP DRINKING AT SILVER MOON EVERYDAY.

And stop trying to imply that MARKETING takes more than 10 seconds per decade. Yeah, I know, I've done it.

"Hi, Marketing Jerks, here comes a fax. Market it. "It's overpriced", is the sum total of my knowledge of the situation. OK, bye."

You don't hire a realtor to attend showings, you hire to spend their money and make an monatary investment in marketing your home at no risk to you.

Nice. THANK YOU for telling me, OSTENSIBLY YOUR FUCKIN' MEAL TICKET, WHY I'M HIRING YOU. At NO RISK to me? What's that Big Ass Wad of cash you deadbeats take? Chicken feed? At no Risk, my ass.

"ATTENTION JEWS! We are offering a NO RISK shower. STEP RIGHT UP!"

Maybe I should ask you up front to fork over the money to advertise you home...how would that make you feel?

It'd make me feel like I'm doing an FSBO, much the way I felt while my house was listed a few years back by the laziest sack-a snot that ever walked this planet. Actually this would be a FAR PREFERABLE business model than what we have today:

"HI, I just got my GED & I'm a Realtor. You're selling your house, please name your astronomical price cuz I'm too stupid & lazy figure it out. Could you hurry, I have some "marketing" to do at Silver Moon."

Wrong isn't it? then demanding we spend all our time working one single listing, when we have many other to service as well.

Right. My Realtor could ONLY ATTEND THE 3 SHOWINGS HE DID FOR MY HOUSE EVERY WEEK: Sum total weekly time spent; 1 hour at showings, 1 hour commuting. See, that's a problem when your an alcoholic, meth addict, or in mens restrooms, or whatever it is you do 65 hrs/week.

OK dude, I feel bad for you. Your a lazy-as-hell listing monkey who ain't worked a day in 5 years, and you caught wind of some heretical bullshit that suggests YOU WORK. I know, I'd raise hell too. But it's a fact, you're going to have to start working, put that Realtor/GED license to use.


This just burns my ass. This lazy bastard is trying to tell ME that he's TOO BUSY to do his job. "Other listings" and all. "What am I supposed to do?", he says.

You lazy sack of shit, YOU'RE SUPPOSED TO WORK! I have paid almost $60,000 in commissions since arriving in Cent OR, and was essentially ABANDONED once the listing contract was signed. WORST SERVICE EVER. Well, "SERVICE" is a misnomer, since I've basically NEVER RECEIVED ANY SERVICE.

My God, this ONE differentiator would probably result in a gold mine of listings. This ONE THING. Personally, I would go immediately to a Realtor offering to do this. Will it happen? Look at the above Realtor reply. Lazy sack of crap is too busy telling me exactly what he will do for me, which is precious little, rather than listening to what I want. Lazy bastard.

My Advice: INSIST, and I mean by GOD DEMAND, that your listing broker go to EVERY SINGLE showing of your house. DEMAND IT. Those lazy bastards are making HUGE MONEY, and every single seller, whether individual with a $80K cracker box rusted out mobile death hole, to a 100 unit multi-million dollar luxury home builder, EVERYONE should demand their Realtor be at EVERY SINGLE SHOWING. The second they think about putting a lockbox on the door, FIRE 'EM.

It is EASILY accomplished, especially given the fact that homes now sell about as often as leap year. Demand it. Those bastards should EARN that money, and the LEAST THEY COULD DO is actually accompany TOTAL STRANGERS into your house. It's just insane not to have someone you know & trust in YOUR HOME. If your Realtor will not go to every, single showing from now on:

FIRE THEIR LAZY ASS