Monday, March 10, 2008

Bend Bulletin Reporter FIRED For Not Hyping Bend Bubble?

200+ comments = pagination :-)

Whoa!

If you read here regularly, you know I'm sort of in Chronicling The Bubble mode now, not in Convincer mode anymore. And I do have some interesting stuff this week, but Holy Shit! This was posted over on BendBB, posted by "Bullethead"

Interesting week in The Bulletin's business section. First, The Source comes out with this blurb on Thursday ...

Quote:
TV isn't the only one getting into the act. A little bird told us that a reporter across town, well known for his real estate coverage, walked out when editors insisted that he spin his latest story to emphasize the positive side of the housing slump.
Oh, well, what's one more fairy tale in makebelieveland?

That caused Bulletin Executive Editor John Costa to fan his line editors through the newsroom to assure everyone that said real estate reporter had really been fired for lying about being sick. Which didn't play well with a lot of the staff, because this email had already made the rounds for a couple of days ...

Quote:
Charlene: (Apparently meaning Sharlene Crabtree, the Bulletin's Human Resources Director) Here's my response to the March 4 Separation Notice:

3-4-2008
I did not "lie about being sick." I took two days off after an article I wrote for the Feb. 26 paper was edited by my supervisor, Business Editor John Stearns, in such a way as to remove any facts or opinions that tended to disagree with a public speaker's rosy predictions for the local real estate industry. As I told him, my intent was to carefully consider why that particularly editing job, which I viewed as dishonest, upset me, and to calm down enough to rationally discuss the issue with him.

When I returned, I was not "questioned about the days off" -- I initiated a meeting with Mr. Stearns and told him, without prompting, that I had not been physically ill but needed two "mental health days," in my phrasing, to determine how I should best discuss my future with the paper with him in a calm, rational way, rather than forcing the issue when I was angry and confused.

I told him during that meeting on Feb. 28 that I felt that the editing job on my Feb. 26 story was part of a pattern of editing that included misleading headlines, sources being banned from my coverage, story ideas getting spiked, and odd pre-story cajolling, all of which seemed designed by the executive editor to generate more favorable coverage of the local real estate market than I have thought was best in the two years I have been assigned to cover it for the paper. I further told him that, although I believed that the articles I had written for the paper were as thorough and as accurate as I could make them, the utter hack job that was done on my Feb. 26 story had led me to conclude that the paper was not willing to cover the industry as honestly as it should, given that the housing market -- which is economically important to the paper -- is now in the midst of a steep downturn.

I asked to be shifted to another beat, including others that had been identified by the executive editor as important to the paper's overall coverage, such as the business of medicine, or the banking industry. I told him I felt that I would be allowed to cover those beats "straight," without what I perceived to be the editors' emotional desire to slant coverage of the real estate market.

He denied that the paper's editors intended to color the news and criticized me for taking the days off, rather than confronting him with my concerns immediately. I told him again that I felt that I needed the time to clarify my own thoughts before I attempted to have a discussion with him, but if he felt the days weren't covered by our sick leave or vacation policy, I would be happy to take them as unpaid time off.

Stearns told me on March 3 that he had discussed my request to change beats with the executive editor. I don't know what was discussed in that meeting, but I was fired the next day.

In conclusion, there was no violation of the ethics code. I was quite honest about my reasons for not coming to work for two days, and was, I suspect, fired for stating those reasons to my supervisor.

Thank you for allowing me the opportunity to respond.


According to a quick look at the edit trail in The Bulletin's computer system, apparently what set him off -- finally -- was an edit job on a story on Dana Bratton's pie-in-the-sky real estate "forecast" speech last Monday that scrubbed paraphrases from Bill Valentine and Brooks Resources honchos Kirk Schueler and Mike Hollern, all saying that they think the downturn is going to last a whole lot longer than the April 25 turnaround date that Bratton ladled out to the adoring real estate crowd at The Riverhouse.

That pesky stuff got axed on orders from Costa, who told his business editor to "stick to what was said at the meeting."
Out, too, went a section that pointed out that the ridiculous predictions that Bratton made last year of a quick RE turnaround also -- uh -- kinda failed to pan out.

Which left the good readers of Bend with the vision of Dana Bratton, grand real estate prognosticator, predicting that everything will be hunky-dory by May, contradicted only slightly by those notorious pessimists at the National Association of Realtors, who actually suggested that sales might not turn around until late this year.

Could it be an accident that all of this is happening a week after the Realtors and Builders announced their "Best Time in 20 Years to Buy a House" campaign?

Complete with plans for a good, old-fashioned media blitz?
Journalism at its finest, and right here in River City.

Some later supposition reveals the writer of the piece is David Fisher for the piece titled "
Housing forecast: It’ll only get better ".

If we EVER needed more damning evidence of the WHOREHOUSE EDITORIAL ETHICS of The Bulletin, we need look no further than this, still unconfirmed, story. And if the Bulletin stays true to form, we won't hear ANY of the story from them. And maybe we shouldn't.

My opinion? This thing is dead real. It's either real, or an extremely convincing hoax. The fact that it's addressed to the HR dept, and her name is misspelled... I don't know. Most hoaxers don't throw in little idiosyncratic things like that. Also, it's not addressed to Costa is convincing. This thing just "feels" authentic to me.

We'll know by simply monitoring Bulletin stories, and if we don't see Fisher pieces within a few days, we'll know this is not a vacation.

Maybe this should come as absolutely NO SURPRISE that The Bulletin is a bought & paid for WHORE of local RE interests. Whether this Fisher story is true or not, we KNOW that is true. I think it is true, and that Fisher hit his Popeye Moment, and he had all he can stands, and he can't stands no more.

Every decent person cannot lie without end without turning into some sort of monster, as this picture of Pamela Hulce Andrews clearly shows:
Pamela Hulce Andrews: "Best Buyers Market in 20 Years, My Precious!"

Personally, I am very interested in whether this Fisher piece is true. If anyone has any hard evidence, please feel free to submit it to the UNCENSORED COMMENTS area.

Speaking of Hulce WHOREHOUSE Andrews, and her totally bereft of standards shithole "Business Newspaper" (RE advertising cum bucket), here is her latest sellout statement:

Over in Prineville, where some media has reported that the town is in dyer straights, Real Estate Broker Shauna Zinn predicts that Crook County's recovery will come sooner than what is predicted for Deschutes County. She suggested that that are of the region is in the process of getting to the end of their inventory and renewed interest is already heating up.

The message is clear: buy real estate, buy real estate now. Of course realtors are going to pursue that message, they make a living selling properties. What else would they say? Don't buy just wait and see what happens?


Despite the self serving message, we like it a lot. If we can live through this tight economy with hope and a positive outlook our economy will be, as Bratton says, on the front line of leading this country out of the market decline.


My God.

If your eyes have rolled too far back in your head to continue reading (or living), seek medical attention now.

And Andrews, a dyer is "someone whose job is to dye cloth", OK, it's DIRE STRAITS (straights?). That is some forbiddingly stupid shit.

And Hulce Andrews gives away the farm when she ADMITS that Realtors have a 100% SLANTED view of the market, and that she sees ZERO PROBLEM with using them as her exclusive source for RE news. The Bulletin also uses Realtors with 100% "pie-in-the-sky" outlooks, but they FIRE YOUR ASS for printing anything else. Cascade Business Buttbangers would never fire someone for doing that... they'd never be hired in the first place. Cross the Buttbangers off your list Fisher.

Yes... and our "positive outlook" will be our saving grace in this debacle, according to the eternally deluded Andrews. Maybe she should go to Citicorp in New York and suggest her philosophy on turning things around.

So where is The Only Place You Will Read The Unvarnished Truth About The Local Real Estate Market? Well, I'll let each person answer that for themselves, but rest assured that the Fisher story will never surface in this town in "Established Media". The Powers That Be are still imbibing the Kool-Aid, and they'll FIRE anyone who even thinks we should stop.

Unbelievable.

Another good nugg posted on BendBB was this, by "MST":

As of today: Solds for Feb. all residential types:
69 Sold

315k Median

140 days on the market

1962 med sq ft

1907 active listings

Interesting, so far in March, 17 sold at 260k median.
Sure that will change since the median of pendings is 339k.


So, now I can post a more accurate depiction of Months Inventory:

Months Inventory, Y-axis inverted.

This throttles back inventory to a still mind-numbing 27.3 months. Remember that the RE industry admits that 6 months is "Normal". So draw a horizontal line at 6, and it is easy to see that Dana "He's A Man" Bratton is still attempting to reflate this souffle, despite all facts to the contrary.

And you might think, "Oh no... here comes another rant on CACB plummeting into the single digits.", and you'd be WRONG! Well, OK, maybe you're a little right... cuz that badboy is PLUNGING! $9.78/sh, with a fresh new 52 week low of $9.48. Had to go back 5 YEARS to see the prices we're seeing today:
CACB, 5 years

You can see in a 10 year chart that CACB has vaulted from around $7, to the current $9.78 in the short span of 1 decade. Is it for this BRUTALLY LOW 3.4% annualized return that Patty Moss' ass will be waxed? I doubt it, besides I'm sure if you add in the ridiculously low dividend yield, and reinvest, you'll get something better. But as any Bendite knows... NO ONE here holds ANYTHING A DECADE. Moss will get her ass waxed for the recent 70%+ beating someday...

Anyway... CACB played second fiddle to Clear Choice in the plummet parade this week. CCHN finished out the week with a jaw-dropping 27% PLUNGE on Friday.
CCHN, 3 year chart

WTF? What's going on there? All I know is CCHN is building a masoleum to their greatness just East of their current location, adjacent to an old folks home, a park, and an old, established neighborhood. Why the hell they thought this would be a good location is beyond me.

I don't know.... but I'm wondering if the Street is becoming a little concerned that the single largest asset of this company is now going to be a building that will sit largely empty.

Just goes to show: Almost everyone was swept away by the idea that they should real estate-ize their Bend business, even health insurers. You know the large base of doctors that own this dog were frothing at the mouth to have CCHN build this monstrosity.

More delusional bullshit:

Here's another comical piece that just epitomizes the still deluded state of the RE industry:

An index that has been tracking new home sales since 2005 says its historical data dates as far back as 1830. Winans International has patented a combination of housing studies to provide a continuing data set without the scaling and gapping problems found in other studies, it says.

The index found that from its all-time record of 296,000 set in March of 2007, housing prices have declined -16.8% to its current level of 246,300. That's the worst price decline in U.S. new home prices since the 17-month decline of -17.8% from May 1969 to October 1970, says the index.

It could get worse. The worst decline of U.S. new home prices in the last 100 years was the 55% decline from 1929 to 1932 during the Great Depression.

This is just the latest in predictions from housing prognosticators, who are looking backward not forward.

We all know that housing price predictions are about handicapping stocks, so it's no surprise that investors can only get a sniff of what's happening. To get to the meat, they usually have to buy the full report. So the bottom line is, it's about sales and sales improve in a climate of fear.

If you don't want to pay to be scared, you can look at the National Association of Home Builders' useful Housing Information Center. There you can find essentially the same information for free.

The latest NAHB forecast is for housing sales to drop 22 percent in 2008. Housing is in its "deepest, most rapid downswing since the Great Depression," says David Seiders, chief economist for the NAHB. "More and more of the country is now involved in the contraction, where six months ago it was not as widespread."

That sobering tidbit was just verified by the Federal Reserve Beige Book report in which eight of the twelve Fed regional bank districts reported a "weakening in the pace of business activity."

And the other four reported "subdued, slow or modest growth."

The housing sector isn't going to see improvement any time soon. All 12 districts reported overall drops in home prices, suggesting that the mortgage market flu is airborne. The reason is tight credit, where standards are being set making it harder to obtain a mortgage loan. That's causing sales to slow down even in healthy markets.

However, there are reasons to hope things will get better for sellers and buyers. The Beige Book noted that foot traffic is increasing to homes for sale, as buyers sniff around for bargains.

The national malaise has caused some areas to be undervalued, according to a report by National City Corporation and Global Insight. That report found that 88 percent of 330 housing markets surveyed showed price declines but that translates into improved affordability.

The most overvalued city wasn't in California or Florida, for a change. That dubious honor went to Bend, Oregon, where prices were judged to be overvalued by 59 percent. On the other end of the spectrum, homebuyers can find serious bargains in Louisiana and Texas. Dallas, for example, is undervalued by 30 percent.

So you see -- all the prognostication in the world doesn't matter. It boils down to what's happening in the local marketplace.

Published: March 7, 2008

Funny, that this piece is EXACTLY what local RE types are trying to convince you is TOTALLY FALSE. You see, good old Blanche Evans has a national scope in trying to pump up this debacle, and doesn't give a shit about whomping on Bend, if it helps the other 329 MSA's. That's why the National City report about Bend STILL being the most overvalued city in the US is called a "DUBIOUS HONOR" by Evans.

So now, we have the novel situation where National RE Pump-N-dumpers are totally at odds with local Whackos like Ruben Garmyn:

Ruben Garmyn, the principal broker of Prudential High Desert Realty in Bend, disagreed with the report’s assessment. Garmyn believes most national reports miss the boat on Bend’s economy because they don’t take into consideration the impact on local real estate of a steady influx of retirees and professional workers who choose to live in Bend but commute or telecommute to jobs outside the region.

“Investors and baby boomers and commuters built up the (housing) market, but boomers and commuters are still coming here,” said Garmyn. “Yes, we are going through a downturn, partly driven by the media, but we are showing lots of property to potential buyers.”

Garmyn said his office is seeing more sales activity compared with the last three months.

Hey.... wait a minute. Did he say sales activity is picking up? Damn! Garmyn has discovered a RE trend in Deschutes County that has managed to remain hidden, lo these past 100,000 years:

Real Estate activity in Bend picks up in the Spring!

I stand humbled before mental giants like Garmyn. He should start a consulting firm with insights like that.

Anyway, I find it hilarious that "National RE" has decided to throw "Bend RE" under the bus with this National City report. They are actually saying the Nat City report IS LEGIT, and that LOCAL MARKETS really determine whether a market is overvalued or not, and that some, like Dallas, are really cheap. AND that some, LIKE BEND, are horrendously overvalued.

Bend RE types take on this?

No, no, no, no, no, no! This report, while it may be right for ALL 229 OTHER MSA's in the country, has got Bend ALL WRONG. No, no, no, no. We've got old geezers, 600 golf courses, and these really big hills & stuff. You just can't find that sort of stuff anywhere else!

Now, as for JOBS, and stuff that allows you to actually Live Here... no, we don't have that, but we really don't need it either. Internet & airports take care of that problem, and people using those 2 things accounts for 498% of our workforce.

No, National City has got us all wrong. We're EXEMPT FROM ANALYSIS, cuz we got geezers, spring-loaded coffins that eject corpses straight into the Deschutes River & stuff. Housing prices & the influx of old people has a strong positive correlation, as you can see from Sun City AZ, or any mortuary.

OK, enough whomping the local idiot Realtors. Well, almost.

You know what really bothers me about the local RE Keep Prices Artificially High mentality? It's that They Do Not Care Whether High Prices Keep Normal Working People From EVER BEING ABLE TO AFFORD HOMES HERE OR NOT.

It is just an ingrained human need to own their own home. Hell, it's one of the things that makes this country great. The vast ownership of homes by MILLIONS of Americans is one of the American Quality Of Life components that other countries pine for.

And if you work hard, and save & are of reasonable intelligence, in this Country, you SHOULD BE ABLE to buy your own home.

But local RE does NOT want this to happen. They do not think of a home as the last bastion of human refuge from The World. No. To them it is a WHOREHOUSE. Your home is a WHORE, and They are The Pimps, and they take a cut on each sale, and FUCK YOU & your sentimental homeowner bullshit.

They WANT prices to stay high & UNAFFORDABLE. That is why the Nat City report is being poo-poo'd. They DO NOT give a fuck about the effects of a town full of people who are working their asses off to achieve the American Dream AND ARE FAILING because they do not, and will NEVER make enough money to achieve it.

No, they are Pimps & if the Ho's prices are smacked down, they can't support their fuckin sleazy-ass Escalade. They do not give a fuck about anyone but themselves.

You & your home are WHORES to be bought & sold until you are worn out & useless to them.

You watch: When Bend is a worn out useless fuckin crack whore of a town, the pimps will unceremoniously throw us out of the Escalade & pee in our faces, as they drive away from this place forever.

OK, rant concluded, but seething.... for now.

Mortgage market needs $1 trillion, FBR estimates
Without that, prices of securities will fall, raising interest rates on home loans

The answer is that the mortgage market is short of roughly $1 trillion in capital, according to Paul Miller, an analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey.

The modern mortgage market works with lots of leverage, or borrowed money. Investors, including hedge funds and mortgage real estate investment trusts, buy mortgage securities, but finance a lot of their purchases with this leverage.

FBR's Miller estimates that $11 trillion of outstanding U.S. mortgage debt is supported with roughly $587 billion of equity. That's a leverage ratio of 19 to one.

But last year's subprime meltdown has undermined confidence in the home loans that back these mortgage securities. Now the banks that finance most of these leveraged mortgage investments have started to pull back and impose margin calls, demanding more cash or collateral to back their loans.

This has sparked a de-leveraging cycle in which some highly leveraged mortgage investors have to sell assets to meet margin calls. Forced selling pushes prices lower, sparking more margin calls, which in turn produces more selling and even lower prices.

When debt prices fall, yields rise, and that's what's happening to mortgage securities - even those backed by government sponsored entities including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which are considered the safest.

"The immediate impact is that [interest rates on] 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will have to increase relative to Treasuries," FBR's Miller wrote in a note to clients on Friday. "That is why we are experiencing pressure on mortgage rates despite the downward movement on the 10-year bonds."

Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages usually follow the movement of 10-year Treasury bonds, but this relationship has broken down as de-leveraging in the financial system takes hold.

The difference, or spread, between yields on "agency" mortgage securities backed by Fannie and Freddie and those on Treasuries rose to a 23-year high this week, Miller noted.

"It is the leverage game playing havoc with the system," he wrote.

There are two ways to resolve the problem. Either inject $1 trillion of new capital into the mortgage market, or allow prices of mortgage securities to fall (and interest rates on home loans to climb), Miller said.

The mortgage market won't be able to raise $1 trillion, so prices have to fall, he warned.
"There is no quick fix here," the analyst said. "It will take about six to 12 months for the pricing pressure to alleviate on these mortgage assets."

"This will be painful, but it must be allowed to play out in an orderly fashion in order for the mortgage market to achieve equilibrium," Miller concluded.

Alistair Barr is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.

Yup. That's a Cool TRILLION to bail out this thing. A few months ago, it was a scant few hundred billion. Now they're using The T Word.

Note that they say that the last investment refuge is Govt treasuries. Too bad they can't start denominating these in Euros or Yen. Maybe TIP's are a good idea...

And unless you've been in a cave, you've noticed that the recent jobs data finally convinced the last holdouts that we are actually in a recession:

U.S. payrolls fall by 63,000 in February
Drop in labor force moves jobless rate to 4.8%

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- In the clearest suggestion yet of a recession, U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 63,000 in February, the second straight decline, the Labor Department reported Friday.

"Turn out the lights the party's over," wrote Joseph Brusuelas, U.S. chief economist for IDEAglobal. "We are in a recession."

It was the largest drop in payrolls since March 2003, when the economy was struggling through a jobless recovery.

The drop in payrolls was largely unexpected; economists were looking for a tepid gain of about 20,000 in the survey of business establishments. See Economic Calendar.

U.S. stock markets opened lower after the report, while bonds rose. See Market Snapshot.

Futures markets were pricing in an almost 100% chance of a three-quarters of a point cut in the federal funds target interest rate to 2.25%.

In addition to February's dismal result, payrolls for December and January were revised down by 46,000. Read the full report.

The unemployment rate fell unexpectedly to 4.8% in February from 4.9%, but the decline didn't reflect strength in the jobs market, but rather was due to a 450,000 decline in the labor force, the largest drop in nearly five years.

'The data suggest that laid-off workers are discouraged and are giving up the job hunt for now," wrote Stephen Gallagher, U.S. economist for Societe Generale.

Economists were expecting the jobless rate to climb to 5%.

According to the separate survey of households used to derive the jobless rate, employment fell by 255,000 in February. The labor participation rate fell to 65.9% from 66.1% in January. The employment rate fell to 62.7% from 62.9% and a peak of 63.4% in late 2006.

The job loss in January was revised to 22,000 from 17,000. In December, 41,000 net jobs were created, half the number estimated a month ago. Payrolls have declined by an average of 28,000 over the past three months, down from a gain of 80,000 or so a year ago.

Wage rise weak

Average hourly earnings rose 5 cents, or 0.3%, to $17.80 an hour. Average earnings have increased 3.7% over the past 12 months, less than the inflation rate.

Hiring was weak in most sectors in February. Private-sector payrolls fell by 101,000. Of 274 industries, 45.6% were adding jobs in February, the lowest percentage since August 2003. Of 84 manufacturing industries, 31% were hiring.

Manufacturing payrolls fell by 52,000, the most in five years. Construction jobs dropped by 39,000. Private services jobs dropped by 12,000, including 34,000 in retail, 12,000 in financial services, and 28,000 in temporary help services.

Job gains were restricted to government (up 38,000), health and education (up 30,000) and hospitality (up 21,000).

Total hours worked fell by 0.1%.

The weak report will likely add the chorus calling for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee will meet on March 18, but speculation is growing that the FOMC could lower rates before then to address the extremely dysfunctional credit markets, where even AAA securities are being sold off to raise cash.

On Friday, the Fed announced steps to provide more liquidity to markets. The regular auction of short-term funds will be boosted by $40 billion, and the Fed said it would lend an additional $100 billion with agency mortgage-backed securities as collateral. End of Story
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.

Yup, it's finally hitting Main Street. If you've been fired recently, remember to Thank your local banker, mortgage broker, and realtor. The housing bust is 100% responsible for The Beating We Are About To Receive.

As another aside, on the Placement Of Ultimate Responsibility For The Economic Pounding We Are Going To Endure, I would like to say that I do not blame Realtors, primarily. No. That honor goes to the financiers of this thing.

It's like a frat party. The people who Get The Party started are ultimately the people who made the Excesses possible. Sure, there were people who just happened across the party, wandered in, got drunk as hell & ended up killing themselves plowing into a tree, and they are fully responsible for their own demise (speculators, Realtors).

But without the origination of the party & the various required staples for getting it rolling: Numerous kegs, a place to party, and marketing far & wide, it never would have gotten rolling. THIS is the fault of the Money Men. They WANTED this to happen, and they made all the arrangements for it to happen. I blame them 50.1%

I blame the Rest, the speculators, transactors, associations, media and the rest collectively 49.9%. If you hopped into this party with the expressed purpose of Living It Up, and buying RE at inflated prices far beyond your own needs... well, then you deserve everything you get.

Just my 2 cents.

More banking nightmares:

Banks face "systemic margin call," $325 billion hit: JPM

By Walden SiewSat Mar 8, 9:24 AM ET

Wall Street banks are facing a "systemic margin call" that may deplete banks of $325 billion of capital due to deteriorating subprime U.S. mortgages, JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), said in a report late on Friday.

JPMorgan, which sent a default notice to Thornburg Mortgage Inc. (TMA.N) after the lender missed a $28 million margin call, said more default notices and margin calls were likely. The Carlyle Group's mortgage fund also failed to meet $37 million in margin calls this week.

"A systemic credit crunch is underway, driven primarily by bank writedowns for subprime mortgages," according to the report co-authored by analyst Christopher Flanagan. "We would characterize this situation as a systemic margin call."

The credit crisis that began about a year ago will likely intensify after Friday's weak February U.S. employment report "that most definitely signals recession," JPMorgan said.

Indeed, corporate bond spreads widened to a new record on Friday, surpassing levels seen in October 2002 during a boom in bankruptcies following the dot-com crash. U.S. employers cut payrolls in February for a second consecutive month, slashing 63,000 jobs, the biggest monthly job decline in nearly five years, the U.S. Labor Department reported on Friday.

"The weak February employment report points to an economy in recession," JPMorgan said.

The JPMorgan report included a revised bleaker forecast for subprime-related home prices. The bank now sees prices falling 30 percent, from its prior 25 percent forecast. Those prices have declined 14 percent since mid-2006, JPMorgan said.

The U.S. jobs results also came after the Federal Reserve expanded the amount of its short-term auctions to $100 billion in total in the central bank's latest effort to ease credit concerns. Ongoing concerns about bond insurers, known as monolines, and their effort to save their top ratings also are weighing on market sentiment.

Yup, banking is starting to UNRAVEL. Why? Well, the Why is clear, and almost dictated the title of this weeks post, "How To Be 100% Debt Free GUARANTEED, if your read this post".

What's the secret? What's this financial miracle? Can it be The Real Financial Holy Grail?

Yes. Yes, it can. And it's only 4 words long. Here it is:

Walk Away, Don't Pay.

Bang, problem solved.

Step 1, Walk Away. If you own a financially "impeded" asset, WALK AWAY. Fuck them. Who's "them"? Right, that's the fuckers who held the party, The Financiers. They gave you the tools to pay too much, and NOW is the time that it is clear that NEITHER of you should have engaged in the transaction, BUT THEY ULTIMATELY ACCEPTED FINANCIAL RESPONSIBILITY for the downside.

Well, it's here. So walk.

Step 2) Don't Pay. You know all those UNSECURED debts you have, ie CREDIT CARDS? Don't Pay. Again, Problem Solved. Fuck them. They sent you junk mail 24/7 for 20 years, BEGGING to be impaled on a Minsky Moment Skewer. Let it happen. Don't Pay.

As I said, this problem NEEDED financier help to get started. Without them, NO PARTY. Speculators might be slimy worm leaches, but they had nothing without the willing lenders to make it happen. Fuck Them All, But Fuck The Bankers The Hardest. Even Helicopter Bend thinks people will Walk Away, and NOT PAY:

Unless bankers act quickly, Bernanke warned, a large number of homeowners could walk away from their mortgage debt, reversing the historical pattern of people hanging onto their homes at almost all costs.

The Fed chief's comments were bolstered by a report by Moody's Economy.com that said nearly 9 million homeowners -- or about one in every 10 -- will either have no equity in their homes by the end of this month, or will have mortgage balances that exceed what their homes are worth.

Walk Away, Don't Pay is simply the Abandonment Of Financial Responsibility in this country. It's Instant De-Leveraging. Lemme tell you now: The Effects of This, will be around beyond the end of our lifetimes.

So how bad is it now? Welp, gotta go back to the Big D... and I don't mean Dallas:

Rapid deterioration
Housing in deepest decline since the Great Depression, economist says

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Housing is in its "deepest, most rapid downswing since the Great Depression," the chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders said Tuesday, and the downward momentum on housing prices appears to be accelerating.

The NAHB's latest forecast calls for new-home sales to drop 22% this year, bringing sales 55% under the peak reached in late 2005. Housing starts are predicted to tumble 31% in 2008, putting starts 60% off their high of three years ago.

"More and more of the country is now involved in the contraction, where six months ago it was not as widespread," said David Seiders, the NAHB's chief economist, on a conference call with reporters. "Housing is in a major contraction mode and will be another major, heavy weight on the economy in the first quarter."

A home-sales measure tracked by the association that includes data on cancellations from 30 large U.S. builders that account for one-quarter of all sales shows sales down 65% from their peak in 2005, Seiders said. Government measures of home sales do not include numbers from contracts that were signed but buyers later backed out.

Vacant homes for sale in the U.S. now number about 2 million, Seiders said, an increase of 800,000 from 2005. That inventory overhang is bedeviling builders, who have been forced to cut prices and write down the value of their holdings. Read more on the builders' plight.

"Weak demand and oversupply naturally put downward pressure on prices," Seiders said.
Citing the Case-Shiller index, Seiders noted that home prices nationally have fallen nearly 10% from their peak in early 2006 and that prices were declining at a 19% annual rate in the fourth quarter. "The downward momentum was building at the end of the year," he said. Read the latest Case-Shiller numbers.

Home sales may bottom out later this year, Seiders predicted, but housing starts are not likely to rebound until 2009. Housing, which took 1.25 percentage points off GDP in the fourth quarter, looks like it will continue to be a major drag on gross domestic product at least through the end of 2008, he said. End of Story
Steve Kerch is assistant managing editor and personal finance editor of MarketWatch in Chicago.

Yeah. WORST HOUSING MARKET SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION. You shouldn't really believe that National City report. I'm SURE as the MOST OVERVALUED MARKET IN THE WORST HOUSING MARKET SINCE THE GREAT FUCKING DEPRESSION, that we'll be just fine.

It's hitting the fan, folks. But NOWHERE, and I mean NOWHERE else in the country are you finding more people FRANTICALLY attempting to keep the plates spinning.

Reporters are getting fired for not playing ball. Home associations are OVERTLY trying to FLOOD local media outlets with PR to get national newswire bad news OFF the front page. Every muscle of the local RE behemoth is straining to the breaking point to keep alive a party that the financiers closed 6 months ago. OK guys... the party is OVER. Time to go home. Time to get real.

But no. They will not. They still have hangers on, like Cascade Business Buttbangers who are telling them that National City is wrong, The Sun WILL Come Out Tomorrow, and all sorts of other nonsense that simply prolongs the pain.

Manipulate the media ALL YOU WANT, but this debacle will NEVER RE-FLATE. EVER.

307 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 307   Newer›   Newest»
timothy said...

Open House season seemed to kick off yesterday. I saw signs all over the place.

Problem: Not too exciting, because I've already seen the houses that are being shown. I'm waiting for more inventory before I go out to make the Realtors cry.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Open House season seemed to kick off yesterday. I saw signs all over the place.

Damn, me too. My wife even commented on the Vast Forbidding Forest of Open House signs.

Well, she didn't say "Forbidding". I can only assume she was thinking it. It's a perfectly cromulent word.

timothy said...

It's a perfectly cromulent word.

I'm waiting with baited breath for your mute point.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I'm waiting with baited breath for your mute point.

If a Mute Point Falls on Def Ears, Does Anyone Here It?

LavaBear said...

If a Mute Point Falls on Def Ears, Does Anyone Here It?
***

Def Ears??

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7p0z1y5mg_E

bruce said...

Re: Def Ears?

Boy, that shit brings back some memories.

Anonymous said...

Friend just told me that WAMU just took away his Heloc. Not because of bad credit but because they are reducing the value of his home and that he now longer has any equity. He only has had the heloc for 4 months. So they basically charged him a fee and the cost of appraisal and now say bend over. They told him if he gets another appraisal showing higher value they will reconsider.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Boy, that shit brings back some memories.

Damn, I lost my Def Leppard t-shirt from 1983. I'll bet I'd look damn sweet in that today....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Worm sign...

Errr... Kool-AId sign:


Affordable Housing In Bend Oregon?

Bend Real Estate Market Report- Affordable Housing is Back!

I remember a time about 1 1/2 years ago when there were only about 5 homes on the market in Bend for less than $300,000. Today there are currently 416 stick built homes on the market in Bend for less than $300,000. 19 of these homes are priced less than $200,000. WOW!

Affordable Housing Statistics

* The average price of these 416 homes is $262,904.
* The average Square Feet of the homes is 1550 sq ft.
* These affordable homes have been on the market for an average of 147 days.

Buy now or wait?

Hmmm... Interest rates are hovering around 5.5% and there is a supply of affordable homes in Bend. The inventory of homes has been declining, and interest rates won't get much lower if at all. Why wait? I remember when buyers had no options, and homes sold quick. It was hard to buy an affordable home in Bend because there wasn't much inventory. Any decent deal had mulitiple offers on it, and usually got swallowed up by investors.

Now is a great time to buy. Most buyers who wait for the bottom will miss it.


Not to RAIN ON YOUR PARADE Man, but nationwide medians are $207K.

$300K IS NOT AFFORDABLE. OK, you've received Kool-Aid poisoning, which has made you take leave of your rational senses.

$350K medians are INSANE. You want 'em back, I know, but NEVER AGAIN IN YOUR LIFETIME. Not gonna happen.

We're headed for the low $200's, or worse. Accept it. If you want The Best Buyers Market in 20 Years, it'll happen down there, in the high $100's.

The $300's will ensure that you lose your job.

WAKE UP WHITE PEEPUL.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And kudos to Dunc for making The Bulletin.

No coverage... even in the Bull... is bad coverage.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And I have heard what others have heard/speculated on here: The Bulletin is HURTING. This is inside confirmation.

Maybe David Fisher ass-canning was a defensible reason for screwing him on the bennies he's piled up.

The Bull is DEFINITELY in downsizing mode.

Watch for others getting the axe for blinking at Costa wrong.

Anonymous said...

I think that will be the next big deal to hit. People walking away from unsecured debt. If your house has already ruined your credit a few more credit card defaults won't hurt it much.
This a true story of a Bend friend. His house payment was $2900 and going to reset this year, he had a heloc that the minimum payment was $650 and credit card payments of another $900 spread out between 10 cards. And no income. He had been living off the gains he made on a house he had sold in CA 3 years ago. While his credit was still good he went and rented a house for $1000 with an 18month lease up in WA. The house is considerably nicer then the one he had in Bend. And then he walked away from it all. No bankruptcy,no foreclosure, nothing. The bank didn't even want to talk about it. Wasn't even a bank, it was some servicing company in TX. He kept one credit card that he will pay off completely each month to build his credit back up. He still has enough cash to where he could of made the payments for quite awhile but he figured the house was deep underwater and would never come back. His logic makes a little bit of sense. Most of the credit card balances were too small for anyone to hassle going to court over so he doesn't have to worry about assets getting seized. He basically is saving $3500 a month and took a five year hit to his credit score and kept his liquid assets. He figures the way things are going he will be able to buy a house for cash in a couple years.

Anonymous said...

I wonder if a Bend franchise of this is available.
http://www.youwalkaway.com

Anonymous said...

My wife even commented on the Vast Forbidding Forest of Open House signs. Well, she didn't say "Forbidding". I can only assume she was thinking it. It's a perfectly cromulent word.

***

Paul D -- you must be a handful for your long-suffering wife. Or do you live more of a Clark Kent-SuperBB2man existance?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I think that will be the next big deal to hit.

Me too. The simple abandonment of fiscal responsibility. It's a steamroller.

The Middle East will own this countries assets in 5-10 years.

Fuckin Jews & Arabs will have to make amends at that point, Arabs own the banks, Jews running them. Maybe the upside of the economic implosion of this country will be the cessation of Middle East tensions.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Or do you live more of a Clark Kent-SuperBB2man existance?

I do wear nylon underwear at times and a cape. But it's a comfort thing.

Anonymous said...

I understand why I'm getting so many hits to my old Marvelous Bend blog now, what with the mention in the paper and all.

But looking back through my stats history, what I don't understand are all the hits on Feb. 22. A marvelous spike. Anyone have an explanation? What happened on Feb. 22? Was that the blog meetup?

Sally Heatherton

bruce said...

Sally, you were the Queen of Bend RE while it lasted. I was sorry to learn that you were cross-dressing.

Need a good laugh?

http://www.craigslist.org/about/best/snj/494903542.html

buttster said...

I'm so mad I could spit my chewing tobacco at the computer screen. I've been holding back on scolding you newbies and oldbies regarding the full extent of my rage -- but now my panties are in such a twist that my outey is almost any inny. So here goes:

Why are we even comparing Bend to any other market? We are ONLY supposed to be talking about BEND on this blog. Don't you know our charter? "Debating the Bend Oregon Real Estate bubble, its implications for Bend residents, businesses, and the economic outlook for this area." Period. No mention of the existance of any other place. No comparison to any other place. Just BEND, BEND, and more BEND.

Why do we even need to mention "Bend is the most overpriced RE market"? We aren't the most anything -- we are the ONLY. We live in the City of Bend, in the State of Bend, in the country of Bend, on the planet Bend. So quit mentioning other places or comparing us to other places. That includes Redmond and Prinville -- they are NOT Bend.

I swear if you people do not comply with my command I will unlease such a torrent of cuss words that you will go blind.

Anonymous said...

Please can't you all stop being soo negative about our real estate market It's only going to drag prices down. I need to sell 3 houses and if someone reads this they may not believe the TRUTH in the media. We are at the bottom and prices will go back up. They better or I may lose alot of money.
So I beg you! Please start talking the market up. Don't be so mean and pottey mouthed.

bruce said...

Re: Please start talking the market up. Don't be so mean and pottey mouthed.

You don't have to convince us--you have to convince the bank making the loan ;)

LavaBear said...

You don't have to convince us--you have to convince the bank making the loan ;)
***
The more I look into the credit markets and see shit like 32 times leveraged, the more I want to goto Newport Mkt and get the super strength tinfoil to fashion the family in matching hats. And start hoarding gold in the mattress. The unwinding of just a small amount of the credit out there has the potential to be catastrophic. As in really fucking bad. But it's ok. The government will fix it. Look at New Orleans today.

timothy said...

If your first inclination is still to go to $$Newport Market$$ to buy something, you're still pretty far away from true concern.

Please take this Hello Kitty Psychological test and report back with the results so we can look more deeply into your motivations.

http://tinyurl.com/6qn2m

bruce said...

Re: Look at New Orleans today.


There is our model. Welcome to BushCo.

I'm going out to put a new starter in our utterly boring minivan with almost 225,000 miles. Cheap as hell and proud of it. And a little grease and a couple of nicked knuckles is a small price to pay for satisfaction.

bruce said...

Since my bikes are worth more than my car, I should get off my high horse.

But I do use them more. But I really wish the city would suck up all the grit. The dust has had me hacking for a couple of weeks now.

One thing I do like to splurge on is travel. But even that has gone up a bunch lately.

LavaBear said...

You are a cheerful person and likely never worry about stress.
You are a cheerful person and likely never worry about stress. Even when you encounter any problem, you will not pay attention. Though, it not the while truth. Maybe you just simply put the stress aside.

You might be exposed to stress one day. What that occurs, gardening will be the best way to keep a balance stress level.


Fuckin' A. Gardening!. Who would of known? All these years it's been mtn bikes, skiing and drinking too much. I could of planted some corn and tomatoes instead. Now I'm wondering if I need to fashion tinfoil covers for my tomato plants as well.

My wife thanks you Tim. She wasn't too keen on the hats. I don't think she's too keen on gardening but it's my stress we are dealing with here.

timothy said...

I've seen crews out sucking up the grit. That dumped a lot of that stuff down on the roads this winter and it takes time to clean it. I won't take my bicycle out until it's safe. Slipping on that stuff is dangerous.

timothy said...

Hey, at least you're cheerful. As a formerly-avid gardener, I gotta tell you Bend kinda sucks for gardening.

bruce said...

Re: Slipping on that stuff is dangerous.

I raced for almost 20 years, so the bike handling is down. Although I will admit to taking a couple of pretty hard ones on the snow this winter...

But the dust and grit...I was riding home from RE Jewell the other day, when it was windy, and it was like some sort of hell. I could hardly even keep my eyes open going into the wind because so much grit was ending up in them. Truly not what you want your prospective active clients to experience.

Anonymous said...

The government will fix it. Look at New Orleans today.

****

Don't you know that the New Orleans disaster was a conspiracy? The rich wanted the poor gone. They got their wish. Now other cities have to deal with their undesirable cast offs. I heard a demographer saying last week (with no shame) that "the silver lining is that people who are moving back are the ones who can afford to move back."

Is there anyway to flood Bend?

Anonymous said...

The dust has had me hacking for a couple of weeks now.
*
when it was windy, and it was like some sort of hell.
*

Just wear eye protection and a breathing mask. Problems solved! (except for the slipping)

Marge said...

Ah...gardening..the future of food in Bend. Right , it's not the greatest climate. But if you eat root vegi's, it works. Spuds, onions, garlic, carrots, beets, chard, spinach, radi's, also zuchini does well. If you want tomatoes though you had better have a small green house or leanto. I am planning a shared garden idea with neighbors.We will each garden at our own homes and grow different things that we will share with each other. They actually like the idea of sharing. This coming economy will bring many together

timothy said...

>>Don't you know that the New Orleans disaster was a conspiracy? The rich wanted the poor gone.

Yep. True.

We paid China to create the hurricane. They have weather machines they've built to keep the skies clear for the Beijing Olympics.

Anonymous said...

This is the first buster post today "The Real Buster", and I can say we have lots of newbies, and I can't really say anything, its all been said today for me, Have you ever heard me say that before??

I counted four posting's speaking on meee behalf, ...

The blogger fodder has never been better?

I agree with marge, gardening here is joke, unless you have great green-house.

For Bruce, and all others that slip on their ass when they hit the cinder on the roads post winter, I can only say slow down.

Bloggers are taking themselves way to serious. Time to get with the program, time to focus. As Homer says its the bend-bubble is an old story we can cover the demise, but honestly we need to start focusing on the post-bubble renewal.

Anonymous said...

Ummm. . .no, it isn't dire straights. It's dire straits. (Y'know, if you're gonna complain about someone's bad spelling, you ought to catch the fullness of the error.)

Marge said...

As Homer says its the bend-bubble is an old story we can cover the demise, but honestly we need to start focusing on the post-bubble renewal.
Post bubble renewal will include working together for the small and greater good.
First, we have to stop P&R from spending our money foolishly on a new office. There are plenty of over-built comm projects they could buy 70 cents on the dollar.
Ran into Andy Jordan today at Costco. Gave him the big KO on his retirement in 3 weeks. Told him it's no time to be in charge of budgets..he agreed. But I had to mention the P&R building..even he agreed it was stupid and wasteful. If all of us have to suck it up....then our City needs to do the same. No more damn consultants to tell them they are stupid.
Westsiders are screwed in the gardening department. One good reason I have always been eastside. If any of you want to get in on a co-op "free" garden in teh banana belt let me know. A little time in the country may do ya good. Clear your sinus from cinder dust.
So how the heck do you bold words?
Please show me a word with html proper. Thanks in advance.

timothy said...

Bold test

timothy said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
timothy said...

How to do bold:

http://tinyurl.com/mdqjf

Anonymous said...

We paid China to create the hurricane.
***

no smart ass -- it's because NO/LA didn't upgrade the levies that "protected" the lower wards (i.e., slums)

Anonymous said...

oops ... I mean "levees" ... shit the spelling police are in full force today.

LavaBear said...

>>no smart ass -- it's because NO/LA didn't upgrade the levies that "protected" the lower wards (i.e., slums)

Sorry smart guy...the US Army Corp of Engineers is in charge of the levees.

I'm not sure I'd call the 9th Ward a slum either. NOLA is a bit different in that regard. The 9th Ward was half working poor and half fucked up poor. The true "slums" are the projects in town. There's one right at the top of the French Quarter that they don't like to tell tourists. Tourists would walk past Rampart St. and right into some sorry shit.

Anonymous said...

he US Army Corp of Engineers is in charge of the levees.
***

yeah and bush is in charge of them -- coincidence? I don't think so. I'm not saying it was planned -- it was a convenient event that they took advantage of (that's the conspiracy that occurred after the fact).

(also higher crime in Houston and other cities that took in the refugees is also not a coincidence)

The point is NO got it's dream of getting rid of the people getting in the way of its richy-rich lifestyle dreams. Now the coast is clear to build mega condos. (that's why they haven't rushed to rebuilt and return poor former residents)

But hey -- we're going to get yelled at by Buster soon. Back to Bend...

Marge said...

Thanks for the html tutorial


So the New Orleans thing is part of the Bend Bubble? How?

timothy said...

Bend is exactly like New Orleans.

bruce said...

Re: There's one right at the top of the French Quarter that they don't like to tell tourists. Tourists would walk past Rampart St. and right into some sorry shit.

That has been a particular point of contention. That one wasn't flooded, and this documentary film records its disuse, even though it had virtually no storm damage: http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p=1EB53F648EABF0EA (I think it is part two, but all are worth watching.)

Here is an article on the general issue: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/07/AR2006120701482.html

Here is a blog about former residents trying to reclaim their homes: http://www.infoshop.org/inews/article.php?story=2007st_bernard_takeover

This is prime real estate and is being handed over to private developers. Why doesn't that surprise me?

After all, if you are poor, fuck off and die. That's the Bush way. And a lot of people subscribe to it. No reason for being poor--it's your own fucking fault for being such a lard ass.

But then I just spent a day with 5th and 6th graders that were having trouble comprehending Dr. Suess books. And it sure as hell wasn't because they weren't trying...they are always going to have trouble supporting themselves.

So do we just kick them to the curb? Like a lot of folks in New Orleans and elsewhere?

bruce said...

Re: So the New Orleans thing is part of the Bend Bubble? How?

In a way. It's related to the Bush policies: easy money, never get out of debt bankruptcies, and favor privatization even when it is proven to be corrupt and less efficient.

The St. Bernard projects are a perfect example of rich and connected taking from the poor and barely surviving. They were one of Roosevelt's legacies, and barely affected by the hurricanes.

But the poor are scum. Fuck them. Their land is worth more than they can afford, now.

The developers are sure to give us miniMansions, which are what all Americans strive for after all.

Anonymous said...

I think its clear that New Orleans & Bend 'special people' wanted to rid the town of riff-raff, in New Orleans it was the Niggers ( poor blacks ), and in Bend, it was the Rednecks ( white niggers ).

Mission accomplished in Bend, I haven't been to New Orleans since the hurricane, so I don't want know what they accomplished there, but here in Bend I know for a fact the 'beautiful' people had dogs destroyed, and cars towed, and DUII's enforced, whatever it took to make this town CONDO SALABLE.

Next time I make it down to South Louisiana, I'll give a report.

In the day of Maximum Red-Neck riddance 2005 the Breeze&Co were of maximum form, today all our REHO's are BK, and giving begging for City Assistance, aka Bailouts, Buyouts, ...

Like the Fucking Park building, wouldn't it be surprising if they used the Plaza for that?? Not really we knew the beautiful people of Bend would get bailed out.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Dire straights

I no what eye'm Tok'n about!

Anonymous said...

But hey -- we're going to get yelled at by Buster soon. Back to Bend...

*

The newbies will be gone tomorrow, then we can get back to the Bend-Bubble, but I'm quite surprised that timmy doens't take this NewOrlean verus Bend debate over to BENDBB where it would be more suitable.

We really should focus on the bendbubble.

The levees were fucked before Clinton, & twisted big-shrub, and twisted-little shrub. Its HOW DUMBYA handled the fiasco, and JUST like the Bend-Bubble, its HOW Freidman&Johnson are handling our treasure.

bruce said...

Re: The levees were fucked before Clinton, & twisted big-shrub, and twisted-little shrub. Its HOW DUMBYA handled the fiasco, and JUST like the Bend-Bubble, its HOW Freidman&Johnson are handling our treasure.

Gound truth.

LavaBear said...

>>So the New Orleans thing is part of the Bend Bubble? How?

That's just how shit works on this board. Things careen ways you'd never thought possible.

I tossed it out because deep somewhere in my head the only way I can see housing/RE doing anything but collapsing worse than anything any of us can imagine (Excluding Buster he's already imagined it) would be some sort of Government bailout. I am of the mindset that whatever happens locally is simply pissing on the biggest wildfire in our lifetime. There is so much debt in the financial system that has to unwind it's mind boggling. Thus the bailout and I mentioned NOLA as an example of my complete full faith in our government to get the job done.

timothy said...

I buy that a gov't bailout is on-topic, because people now are saying it over and over, trying to make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.

But it makes no sense to me, all you can do is a token amount.

A full S&L-style bailout for THIS disaster would be counterproductive if not impossible, driving the economy into an even worse state of ruin. There's pretty much nothing in the world bigger than the US mortgage market. It can't be bailed out. It would be like trying to bail out a yacht in your bathtub. It just doesn't make sense. It's an Alice in Wonderland-like idea.

At best, the gov't will do SOMETHING and SAY it's been bailed out, but it won't help people.

All the jingle mail makes sense, in a way. If your house is going to take you out, you have to run away from it as soon as you can. Or at least as soon as your realize you have to.

Marge said...

In the day of Maximum Red-Neck riddance 2005

OPPS...they missed me :)

LavaBear said...

>>It just doesn't make sense.

I'm with you 1000% that it doesn't make sense. The $600 check in the mail doesn't make sense. Raising the Jumbo limit doesn't make sense. Tossing more toxic shit at Fannie and Freddie don't make sense. But I do think they will keep tossing shit at the wall until something sticks. And really that's why I brought up NOLA. The government we have sure is an inefficient beast. But in an election year it has to act like it's doing something.

It's deep in my head that the only thing that can stop the housing collapse is a government bailout. I do agree that it is highly unlikely they can do shit. Fuck...I'm now back to having to get the tinfoil hats. Oh yeah, gardening. That's the ticket.

Anonymous said...

the rebate makes a little bit of sense when you have a monetary system based on nothing else but debt. That money will get deposited and loaned out. Our whole system is based on you and the government borrowing more. If all debt disappeared tomorrow we would be fucked. It would be different if the government created our money but they don't the bankers do. The government just prints it for them.

timothy said...

The gov't says they want it spend. You say it'll get deposited. I think it'll go to credit card payments.

Credit card usage has spiked up recently.

Anonymous said...

It's deep in my head that the only thing that can stop the housing collapse is a government bailout. - lava

*

The problem is money is NOW impossible to get, this is because, investors don't want to lose any more money. Money people have been wiped out from CDO/CMO MTG losses 1/2 their principle gone, all MTG investments is toxic. We're now in 1932 RE Depression "Paralysis". The ONLY thing that can now rescue the housing biz, is guaranteed loan's. This is so BIG, that I think only the DEMOCRATS can pull it off. Like the last depression caused by Republicans, yet it was Hoovers ideas implemented by Roosevelt that turned the country back. But it took a democrat to get Hoover the engineer's ideas implemented, the republican party then and now was incapable of helping the little guy.

Thus we'll see 'band-aides' until 2010, and then utter collapse because only cash will buy, then we'll see government 'guaranteed loans' which will bring back the housing market for first time buyers of average credit.

Real Estate Paralysis - "Buyers wouldn't Buy, and Sellers wouldn't sell", by 1932 their was no money, and 90% collapse, then government stepped in with loans to replace the 'investor'.

Anonymous said...

The gov't says they want it spend. You say it'll get deposited. I think it'll go to credit card payments.

*

Timmy is right, it defy's logic, but I'll give an example. I have a white-trash relative in LA. About five years ago I sent her a $500 check for her birthday. About a year later we're talking and I asked what she bought for herself, she immediately said "I used it to buy credit for my credit card".

She went on to explain that in LA, you were nobody without plastic, and that she hadn't been able to use her plastic for a long time because all her cards were maxed. But with the $500 she had been able to buy 'credit' so she could go out for a few weeks and flash her card, and use it. She said it had made her feel like a real person again in LA.

Now the above is true, and I myself am incapable of such 'logic', but this is a true story, and thus timmy is right, the behavior of the poor and stupid in this country is irrational.

This relative has cars repo' twice a year, has had an average one foreclosure every 3 years in her entire life, has never had a job.

Yes, timmy is right, they'll put the money in their credit card, but the good news, and this gets back to the republican play, they'll use that money as a result to "SHOP", which is what the republican strategy is all about, helping out business.

Anonymous said...

This blogging thing -- stuff like the Bulletin reporter that we'd find out no other way -- it's getting more consequential than I thought....

Or are we just wasting our time?

- duncan

*

I have said many times we're filling the void, the blind men and the elephant analogy is apt. We all toss our little bit, and integrate, and some of us can see the big picture.

Most in this town have long been beholden to interests, the shift in power is taking place, in the interim we are the news. This is also a point of danger, as the messenger of bad news is always destroyed.

Blogging is addictive, but so was gibberish on CB radios in the 70's. In tough times people want to commiserate with like minded folk. The 'news' in Bend is completely out of touch with 'real people'. Thus the real people 'fill the void', which is what we're doing, the 'establishment media' is quickly trying to tap into this 'fad'.

As long as the BULL/SORE, Bend Media et-all continue to squander taxpayer treasure, and talk 'best in 20 PR', then we'll have to continue to fill the void. I know you'll say its 'cheap' but these times are quite like the 1950's when people were afraid to speak the truth, these forums give the many the ability to speak the truth. YOU speak as you want, imagine all these people at the BULL having to lie to their fellow citizens everyday, and it goes on for years, ...

It's only NATURAL for all to migrate to truth, I think thats why we saw the post this weekend about the 2-day leave reporter, they themselves most likely reported here, and its because these forums are now the 'stone' where messages are left in Bend, as truth can be found in no other place.

This of course will bring the wrath from the Goblins, because they despise truth, as it puts their fraudulent empire at risk.

Anonymous said...

We have quite a few buzzwords passing here one is 'bailouts', and another is 'rescue' that I would like to bring up.

In the area of bailouts, it has already happened, since Feb 07, our GOVERNMENT has given banks, ... 100's of Billions in order that they may remain solved. They have opened the 'discount window', 'back window', and 'side window'. So the 'bailouts' are already in full force.

For the little guy only one thing can happen and that is 'rescue'. I have said for over a year now it will be a mute point if Bend RE is $120k median, and you'll not be able to borrow money, we're almost there NOW in terms of money. The investors are gone, and BOND PAPER (CDO/CMO MTG) is now UN-SALABLE there are NO BUYERS of this shit.

The next step, and it will NOT happen until after the election, is a federal guaranteed loan program, for buyers of good credit, and a healthy down-payment, and a good job. This rescue is essential to get the housing market moving again, this is how they rescued the housing market in 1932, and this is how it will be done today.

If you look at TOLL ( brothers ) you can see the that HOUSING biz started its collapse in 2004/2005, thus we're already three years into the bubble implosion on a national level.

Our own BEND PR&MARKETING REHO's have done a damn good job of keeping their genitals in the dyke, but its going to give & big, sometime over the next 1-2 years.

Until the FED's bring in this new "RESCUE" package, we'll not see much buying, and it will take most likely 2010 before the new FEDERAL BUREAU can be created. If a Republican is elected it may be years before things are fixed, and money flows again, but most likely a DEMOCRAT will be elected.

I'm NOT saying that I like DEMOCRATS, but READ McElveney's book on the "Great Depression", Hoover was an engineer, he had all the ideas of fixing the depression as early as 1930, but the Republicans REFUSED to go along, because they wanted the system to work out itself, so misery just dragged on, and eventually the DEMOCRATS got power, and got to work. I think this one will play out the same.

In the meantime we must continue to beat our chests and spread the message of what FUCKING ASSHOLES our boss-hoggs that run this city are, and the REHO cunts puppets they have running city-hall, and city-staff. Not that Mayor Bruce-Pussy would be any better, for they ALL NEED to be watched like hawks.

Anonymous said...

... whatever it took to make this town CONDO SALABLE.

Next time I make it down to South Louisiana, I'll give a report.

***

I stated this earlier — the retail industry is reporting that "the good news" is that the well-off are returning to NO, not the poor!! Can you imagine a more crass bunch of son-of-bitches than retail and RE developers (bushies best buds)?

Bendites, NO is your sister city: both have found a way to get rid of undesireables and build mcmansions, condos, and walmarts.

There's been no rush to rebuild the slum areas, because they've been hoping their old poor people will get comfortable somewhere else. Meanwhile, the poor ARE staying put, because they've learned to rely on the "kindness of strangers" in other states.

Someday soon you'll start to see development go up in these former NO ghettos and it will all be condos, high-rises, and malls. Watch and see. (BTW, Brad Pitt's so-called makeitright charity project is so riddled with profit angles that it's a joke and a mockery!)

For the record, the coast is literally clear for condo building on the ocean front lots in Mississippi where many homes were destroyed.

The whole thing is an example of RE greed on a grand scale -- sorry, but even bigger than Bend.

And talk about media buy-in -- notice how no media are reporting the real story of NO. If you haven't noticed, overall traditional media is struggling to survive. The inet -- including blogs -- are the future of communication.

So this blog -- and all others -- are the most relevant news source available. GO BB2!!

Anonymous said...

New Orleans is an OPPORTUNIST play. BEND is/was an orchestrated, organized FRAUD perpetuated on the weakest, in order to claim their home, and flip it, and make endless profit.

While its fun to use New Orleans as a n example of malfeasance, they're quite different.

The Republican Boss-Hoggs that OWN Bend since 1998 had use by bait&switch the liberal's own 'smart-growth' program, and the BossHoggs engineered what became the biggest RE bubble in US history, and Bend, OR became ground zero toxic.

By 2004 they had ran out of inner city lots, and homes to flip, so city-hall engineered dozens of 'tool programs' to drive the poor home owners, who were sitting in homes that cost them $15k average back in the 70's OUT, they did this with dog laws, towing, and tickets, and just general pain, like citing people for yard-cars, anything it took to free up the old MILL-HOUSES which could be flipped to CALIS for $500k, or bare lots for $300k.

The Bend Fraud is now long over, and all that played, doubled their bets along the way, and have NOW lost all.

The BOSS-HOGGS like Hollern, Sebastian, Bauhofer, ... that own this city, they're all trying to once again defer SDC's, so they can liquidate, sell, and move-on before the bill is due.

Honestly New Orleans doesn't have a fucking thing to do with Bend, Oregon. Once the red-neck was irradicated, then Bend, OR was marketed to the rich, as the next Aspen.

Bend was just a sleepy little desert town that got marketed with taxpayer money into the biggest RE boon-doggle since the Florida Swamplands of the 1920's, which was quickly followed by the Great Depression.

Thus if YOU MUST use Republican analogy's of Southern land, then use the Florida Swamp land in comparison to Bend, as its far more apt, in terms of wiping out peoples life savings.

Anonymous said...

Re Fisher: Someone should call the BULL's main number and ask for him. Easy enough way to check if he's there.

Anonymous said...

New Orleans is an OPPORTUNIST play. BEND is/was an orchestrated, organized FRAUD

***

okay fine you win.

timothy said...

>>Re Fisher: Someone should call the BULL's main number and ask for him. Easy enough way to check if he's there.

You first.

I have the feeling we would have been corrected by now if it were just a rumor.

I hope Costa finishes off that Plaza piece Fisher was working on. I can't wait to read that.

Anyone want to place a bet on the sale price of that pending Newport Modern?

Anonymous said...

Marge - why is the east side better than the west side for gardening?

timothy said...

I'm not Marge, but the east is lower in altitude and flatter.

I do knows some people getting tomatoes on the west side (without a greenhouse). You just have to be careful. Other places I lived tomatoes grew like weeds.

Anonymous said...

I'm not Marge, ...

*

Yes you are. We're onto your little game. Admit it, you're also Buttster and Paul and BendBB.

Marge said...

timothy said...
I'm not Marge, but the east is lower in altitude and flatter.


Well you have it half right. It's warmer due to the elevation. We still have the depleted soils though. Boy do I have a great, 15 year old, pile of compost that I will put to good use and grow organic this year. Since I won't be working much(selling RE) I will have more time to grow my food.

On another note, I recieved teh following info on yet another failing of our federal gov't use of our money. It must have something to do with the Bend Bubble, like New Orleans.

"DEQ File No.97-59-0023; T11N; R10W, Sec. 20; Lycoming County

Dear Mr. DeVries:

It has come to the attention of the Department of Environmental Quality that
there has been recent unauthorized activity on the above referenced parcel
of property. You have been certified as the legal landowner and/or
contractor who did the following unauthorized activity:

Construction and maintenance of two wood debris dams across the outlet
stream of Spring Pond.

A permit must be issued prior to the start of this type of activity. A
review of the Department's files shows that no permits have been issued.
Therefore, the Department has determined that thi s activity is in violation
of Part 301, Inland Lakes and Streams, of the Natural Resource and
Environmental Protection Act, Act 451 of the Public Acts of 1994, being
sections 324.30101 to 324.30113 of the Pennsylvania Compiled Laws,
annotated.

The Department has been informed that one or both of the dams partially
failed during a recent rain event, causing debris and flooding at downstream
locations. We find that dams of this nature are inherently hazardous and
cannot be permitted. The Department therefore orders you to cease and desist
all activities at this location, and to restore the stream to a free-flow
condition by removing all wood and brush forming the dams from the stream
channel. All restoration work shall be completed no later than January 31,
2006.

Please notify this office when the restoration has been completed so that a
follow-up site inspection may be scheduled by our staff. Failure to comply
with this request or any further unauthorized activity on the site may
result in this case being referred for elevated enforcement action..
We anticipate and would appreciate your full cooperation in this matter. &
nbsp;Please feel free to contact me at this office if you have any
questions.

Sincerely,

D Price
District Representative and Water Management Division. avid L.

Here is the actual response sent back by Mr. DeVries:

Re: DEQ File No. 97-59-0023; T11N; R10W, Sec. 20; Lycoming County
Dear Mr. Price,

Your certified letter dated 12/17/02 has been handed to me to respond to. I
am the legal landowner but not the Contractor at 2088 Dagget Lane , Trout
Run, Pennsylvania

A couple of beavers are in the (State unauthorized) process of constructing
and maintaining two wood "debris" dams across the outlet stream of my Spring
Pond. While I did not pay for, authorize, nor supervise their dam project,
I think they would be highly offended that you call their skillful use of
natures building materials "debris."

I would like to challenge your department to attempt to emulate their dam
project any time and/or any place you choose. I believe I can safely state
there is no way you could ever match their dam skills, their dam
resourcefulness, their dam ingenuity, their dam persistence, their dam
determination and/or their dam work ethic.



These are the beavers/contractors you are seeking. As to your request, I do
not think the beavers are aware that they must first fill out a dam permit
prior to the start of this type of dam activity.

My first dam question to you is:

(1) Are you trying to discriminate against my Spring Pond Beavers, or

(2) do you require all beavers throughout this State to conform to said dam
request?

If you are not discriminating against these particular beavers, through the
Freedom of Information Act, I request completed copies of all those other
applicable beaver dam permits that have been issued.

(Perhaps we will see if there really is a dam violation of Part 301, Inland
Lakes and Streams, of the Natural Resource and Environmental Protection Act,
Act 451 of the Public Acts of 1994, being sections 324.30101 to 324.30113 of
the Pennsylvania Compiled Laws, annotated.)

I have several concerns. My first concern is, aren't the beavers entitled
to legal representation? The Spring Pond Beavers are financially destitute
and are unable to pay for said representation -- so the State will have to
provide them with a dam lawyer. The Department's dam concern that either
one or both of the dams failed during a recent rain event, causing flooding,
is proof that this is a natural occurrence, which the Department is required
to protect. In other words, we should leave the Spring Pond Beavers alone
rather than harassing them and calling them dam names.

If you want the stream "restored" to a dam free-flow condition plea se
contact the beavers -- but if you are going to arrest them, they obviously
did not pay any attention to your dam letter, they being unable to read
English.

In my humble opinion, the Spring Pond Beavers have a right to build their
unauthorized dams as long as the sky is blue, the grass is green and water
flows downstream. They have more dam rights than I do to live and enjoy
Spring Pond. If the Department of Natural Resources and Environmental
Protection lives up to its name, it should protect the natural resources
(Beavers) and the environment (Beavers' Dams).

So, as far as the beavers and I are concerned, this dam case can be referred
for more elevated enforcement action right now. Why wait until 1/31/2006?
The Spring Pond Beavers may be under the dam ice then and there will be no
way for you or your dam staff to contact/harass them.

In conclusion, I would like to bring to your attention to a real
environmental quality, health, problem in the area. It is the bears! Bears
are actually defecating in our woods. I definitely believe you should be
persecuting the defecating bears and leave the beavers alone. If you are
going to investigate the beaver dam, watch your step! The bears are not
careful where they dump!

Being unable to comply with your dam request, and being unable to contact
you on your dam answering machine, I am sending this response to your dam
office.
THANK YOU,

RYAN DEVRIES
& THE DAM BEAVERS"

Dam government.
I am not Buttser, Paul or BendBB. I don't write that well:)

Anonymous said...

Oh my gosh -- that is classic. That RYAN DEVRIES is a God. The gov is absolutely nuts. Thanks for sharing.

Now THIS is another perfect reason that blogs are vital!

timothy said...

http://tinyurl.com/254j8h

Mozilo: 'No one predicted' current housing bust

bruce said...

Speaking of fucking over America, do you know that we are spending $12 billion per month in Iraq now? Fresh from the White House press conference today.

That's $400 million per day, or $16,666,666 per hour, or $277,777 per minute, or $4629.62 per second.

All from the pockets of US taxpayers.

How does this affect Bend? Because it is fucking America in the financial markets. Add this on top of the mortgage fiasco, and down, down, down goes the dollar.

Oh well, at least our exports will be more competitive. Those we have left, anyway.

How did we elect such a stupid, asinine, corrupt administration not once, but twice?

And I'm even allowing for Spitzer's issues. That was just fucking stupid, not corrupt.

timothy said...

It's all the same when these guys get power. It changes the brain. Bush. Spitzer. These people are up top for a reason. They are wired to be that way, and the power reinforces it. It's not a normal life. It's another side of celebrity. Just as Michael Jackson and Britney Spears can't be normal.

It's high-and-mighty crash time. Bush, Spitzer (even more a hypocrite than a dope, as you would make him out to be), and our local jokers.

It's like Buffett's story (told even by him too many times) about the tide and the lack of swimming trunks.

We don't believe any of them any more. From the White House where the President started out saying he wanted to avoid nation-building to the NY Governor's office where a smug man who had brought down prostitution rings became ensnared in one himself, to the local gloaters and promisers and sleaze balls and so-called journalists.

It's over.

No time for losers.

WE are the champions.

Marge said...

How did we elect such a stupid, asinine, corrupt administration not once, but twice?

Because we have no fucking choice. Look at he field now. All losers.. They give us no choice. Donkey face Clinton is not a choice. All the financials are scared shitless of Obama. You all don't seem to want another R. What does that leave us with? NADA! Sorry Ron Paulson hasn't a chance. So what are we left with? You tell me. Who is going to change the country, besides us. Some small or larger group complaining may have some effect. OR, can we have a bigger voice in it by some means unknown to me?
BOYZ...speak up. The chaallenge is in our midst.

bruce said...

Re: All the financials are scared shitless of Obama.

Just like they were of Edwards. That's why I think he is the best choice we have at present.

McCain and Clinton are two sides of the same coin. We need a break. HOPEfully, Obama is it.

Otherwise, we just keep our slow downward spiral going while the true rich move elsewhere while milking US citizens. They don't care what denomination their wealth is, only that it is there for them.

Maybe that is why I try to/hope that a local effort can save the place I want to live. The contrast is no hope. Which is anathema to me.

Maybe those local blogger meetups can stretch their reach enough to make a difference.

bruce said...

Re: WE are the champions.

I agree. Let's try like hell to make it happen.

Did you notice that the last few comments are from "stand-uppers"?

You know, those that comment from their actual identity. Much, much more powerful.

Although Anonymouse sources can be key--witness David Fisher. When they need to be...

timothy said...

>>Did you notice that the last few comments are from "stand-uppers"?

Well, I was drinking beer and listening to Queen. I'm afraid it may have affected my posting.

bruce said...

Re: listening to Queen

Dude. Queen will get you pumped--Freddie Mercury was a fucking god :)

bruce said...

Besides, is their a reason that we, the collective we, can not be the champions. Can not force issues. Can not force transparency with our tax money?

Our country was founded on such.

timothy said...

>>Besides, is their a reason that we, the collective we, can not be the champions. Can not force issues. Can not force transparency with our tax money?

>>Our country was founded on such.

Yes, that's all very interesting, but do you prefer Freddie in the white jumpsuit or the black? He wears both in this kick-ass video...

http://tinyurl.com/37gtet

white jumpsuit at 1:35
black jumpsuit at 2:00

Marge said...

Anathema, meaning originally something lifted up as an offering to the gods; later, with evolving meanings, it came to mean:
to be formally set apart, banished, exiled, excommunicated or denounced, sometimes accursed.

I choose to not be exiled..but exhaulted like the rest of you should be. Stand tight in the days to come.
Hopefully, in the near future, we can F>^@k the Bull. Start calling, start writing to MY $100's worth.
We may not have enough clout to git er don, but it maybe one more place to start.

bruce said...

Re: He wears both in this kick-ass video...

T-that is fucking classic!

Marge, I totally agree. We need a crowd and a few places for truth to get out. It will travel. It always does. Voice by local voice...

LavaBear said...

>>>We need a crowd and a few places for truth to get out. It will travel. It always does. Voice by local voice...

Y'all are getting a bit nutty.

http://tinyurl.com/2s2x4j

Anonymous said...

In case there is any doubt, my father-in-law spoke with David Fisher this afternoon and personally confirmed the story regarding his termination. End of speculation.

Anonymous said...

Y'all are getting a bit nutty.

*

I hear you lava, when they start wanting to drink out of your beer, you know its time for a bitch slap.

Anonymous said...

>>Besides, is their a reason that we, the collective we, can not be the champions. Can not force issues. Can not force transparency with our tax money

&

Doo wee naght have da bruce-pussy? We reule tda Bend. What say more?


Spitzer was busted today running REHO's in the big apple, all is imploding, and we have da bruce-pussy.

Anonymous said...

Did you notice that the last few comments are from "stand-uppers"?

<>

I take it in ass laying down, do we have to be standing up?

Anonymous said...

McCain and Clinton are two sides of the same coin. We need a break. HOPEfully, Obama is it.


*

Bruce-pussy wants the black cock so bad, but he don't realize that cheney-in-drag 'hillary' have a strap-on just made for the the bruce-pussy.

Anonymous said...

Who is going to change the country, besides us. Some small or larger group complaining may have some effect.

-------->

Marge mee luv to fondle the 38D's, but that kind of talk get you imprisoned in this country.

Duncan McGeary said...

And you are? and your father-in-law is who? Not confirmed for public consumption just yet, except as a rumor.

Tell him to talk to the Source. Or one of the online blogs.

LavaBear said...

>>when they start wanting to drink out of your beer

I'll kill ya.

Anonymous said...

Tell him to talk to the Source. Or one of the online blogs.


*

Dunc, the Grapevine is correct 100% normally within 15 minutes a RUMOR is shutdown by that CUNT BENDBB in his humble desire to keep the debate sanitary for small desert chipmunks.

It's quite obvious, that day-2 into this issue, given there is no credible denial that its all quite true.

Dunc, at this point its another so fucking what. The issue is NOT that one person has the balls to walk from the BULL the issue is why do the rest stay their and lie and deceive their fellow citizenry, that is the issue today dunc.

I don't know at this late point in time how much truth can even help Bend, given the deferral to date. Note it isn't just that the implosion has been deferred, but everything, including SDC's: schools, sewer, storm, ... This town had a chance to pay for its infrastructure but passed, so the most connected could be enriched.

Today the rich are richer, and Bend is Bankrupt, so now what?

Put a happy spin on it Dunc, suggest that it all transpired by happenstance, .... One this is clear that we know, that if the most RECENT BULL on the BULL wasn't true, there would have been dozens of denials within hour-one.

So fucking WHAT? Fischer was a cock-sucking ass kissing faggot shit eating liar, and did he really get tired? Hell we don't know, perhaps he was fucking COSTA in the ass and there was a gay cock-lock on the Bend story, we simply don't know. What we do know is Bend is a small town, and that Bend is the #1 over-priced, over-valued RE in the Nation, and its going down, and hard, this we do know.

timothy said...

Why not assume the best with Fisher and move on? After all, as far as we can tell he bailed when trying to put some warnings from Valentine and Hollern in there. That's perfectly believable. Let's assume that Fisher is a good guy who maybe just got compromised for a bit too long but finally couldn't get through the night with the way the Bulletin was covering things.

On to Buster's action points.

1) Stop the PR. At least for now. It's hunker-down time. You throw the PR out into the world when the ROI for it makes sense. Credit and mortgages and frozen, so we can ALL agree now is not the time for PR. I've said before that the only reasonable targets now (Manhattan and foreigners) are very expensive to reach. No bang for the buck there.

2) We blew it the on infrastructure and parks fronts. We only got a fraction done of what we should have, given the incredible boom we had. What kind of plan can we make for filling in what we screwed up? This is triage at first, but we need a long-term plan and the triage and plan have to dovetail. Where do we REALLY want to be in 20 years, when we're not assume we are a tree that's going to grow to the sky?

bruce said...

Re: Bruce-pussy wants...

Something for my money.

Timmy is way more on target then y'all anonymouse pussies.

Duncan McGeary said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Duncan McGeary said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

HBM at the Source has published the story on the Wandering Eye blog.

The Bulletin is arguing that it isn't beholden to the real estate interests.

I don't care.

I only care that they seem to be slanting the news for WHATEVER reason.

I think there is a political, social slant that bends in the favor of developers, even if it isn't tit for tat.

They mention the 'negative' story they wrote in yesterday's paper, but over on the Bend Economy Bulletin Board, one of the 'insider' comments says that even that story was edited to remove a remark that this might not be the best time to buy.

I hope this gets wide coverage.

Duncan McGeary said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Duncan McGeary said...

Sorry, guys. That was me deleting comments.

I'm deciding whether I want to commit hari kari with the Bulletin by writing a full blog entry, or let others do all the work.

But I do think this is an Awbrey Buttle cloths line magnitude story!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Our own BEND PR&MARKETING REHO's have done a damn good job of keeping their genitals in the dyke...

Kinky!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

A fairly significant trend I'm starting to notice is the "limited service" listing. Usually a red/white FSBO sign out front, but if you pick up the flyer, you see, buried in the fine print, that there is a Realtor underneath it all.

It also usually says "Call Property Owner at XXX-XXXX".

I knew this bubble bursting would ultimately kill the 6%-ers. Had there not been this greed fueled mania, 6% would have held for decades. Maybe the internet would have bit into it over a long period.

Now it's demise is 100% assured, and it'll be quick.

Virtually 100% of all the listings I saw on a long walk yesterday, were "Limited Service" 3% listings.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

David Foster is back

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Welp, I can finally do a quicky update on David's data, regarding Months of Inventory:

24 MONTHS

Yeah! I'm so glad we had this Bubble! We've utterly destroyed the industry! Whoopee!

Hey, RE types: Remember back 2 years ago when I said there'd be Hell To Pay at the end of this party & you'd wish it never happened? Yeah! This is it!

2 Fuckin Years Of Inventory!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Compare todays excellent Months of Inventory, 2 fuckin years, to the All-Time Bubble low, of 1.23 months wayyyy back in Sept 2005.

Only a 20-fold increase. Nice.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And David's end of Feb inventory of 1,271, compares to the 1,353 we have today, 11 days later.

That's +82 homes in 11 days.

Remember the FUN we had watching it pile up last year at this time?

Good times....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Here's some Case Schiller data:

Here's a list of price changes over the past year for the 20 cities in the Case-Shiller index:

Miami, down 17.5%;
Las Vegas, down 15.3%;
Phoenix, down 15.3%;
San Diego, down 15%;
Los Angeles, down 13.7%;
Detroit, down 13.6%;
Tampa, down 13.3%;
San Francisco, down 10.8%;
Washington, down 9.4%;
Minneapolis, down 8%;
Cleveland, down 6.3%;
New York, down 5.6%;
Chicago, down 4.5%;
Denver, down 4.5%;
Atlanta, down 3.4%;
Boston, down 3.4%;
Dallas, down 2.4%;
Seattle, up 0.5%;
Portland, Ore., up 1.2%;
Charlotte, N.C., up 2.3%.

bruce said...

Good snark from HBM in the comments below his blog post on David Fisher.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

But looking back through my stats history, what I don't understand are all the hits on Feb. 22. A marvelous spike. Anyone have an explanation? What happened on Feb. 22? Was that the blog meetup?

Yeah, me too. I just was checking the stats on this thing, which I very rarely ever do (just a weekly boring sawtooth pattern), and yesterday (Mar 10), was a HUGE spike higher. Double the highest daily visits I've ever gotten.

Weird.

Anonymous said...

David Foster is back
**

All his "Featured Properties" are sold. WTF? Is that a ploy to make the market look HOT?

Hey David -- get a clue -- that's irritating as hell man! Makes you look like a duffas -- worse than your pic.

David Foster is definately NOT HOT.

Anonymous said...

Case-Shiller is no better than NAR/MLS.

The fact is that on east-side PDX sales have stopped since last summer. Comps are down 30-50% below what they were in 2005, e.g. Homes that were selling for $450K are now selling for $250k and thats with the one year inventory.

Given these facts, its hard to understand where case-shiller go their +1.5% gain in PDX, its always garbage-in/garbage-out, and I suspect the mother source of data going into case-shiller is still NAR/MLS data.

There are dozens of free estimators like zillow.com, that provide graphs for homes that have sold. If you look at these graphs in the PDX east-side, inner areas you'll see the charts are down 20-40% with a good linear decline slope.

In summary case-shiller must be using two year old data or older for PDX, or is cherry picking their data.

Anonymous said...

Timmy,

As always RIGHT-ON for reading.

Action Items,

1.) Cease the PR&MARKETING of Bend treasure. Its over no amount of hype can put humpty-dumpty together again ( Bend MTG Fraud ).

2.) SDC triage, we the taxpayer MUST squeeze what we can from our 100's of LLC developers before they systematically go bankrupt, and forever escape their SDC deferral.

Anonymous said...

When watching inventory here's some other things to watch Homer.

1.) You can't REFI or get a Second loan now on a HOME if it has been listed for the past six months. A lot of people have taken their home off market to get money out of it, note these are the homes with equity. This means that most of the homes on the market have NO equity. Go figure why the FEDS have done this?

2.) The Home Equity loan is NOW dead.

3.) The Stated-Income loan is now dead.

4.) The REFI is now dead, its pretty much impossible to get money out of a home, even if its paid for.

So what we have now is if you have perfect credit, and 20% down, and a very good job you can buy a house.

Most interesting is that ALL the reasons for buying a house are NOW gone, and I don't think there are enough people talking about this. Future buyers need to understand that NOW buying a home means what it used to mean, which was non-liquidity.

Home ownership is going to drop like a rock.

Anonymous said...

Ned Flanders, if you can't figure out how to write a story and post anonymous then email the story to bruce.pussy@gmail.com or bilbobend@gmail.com, and let them post your story.

If you have something to say about the BULL, but don't want your name on it, then let other post it for you.

Anonymous said...

Portland RE
--

I know your talking about a specific part of Portland.

But here's something from national news yesterday:

Portland is only one of three MSAs still experiencing positive annual growth rates. Portland has been holding strong with median home prices increasing month after month. Fourth quarter 2007 saw a 1.8% increase to $290,500 from $285,400 a year prior. "We have a positive economic atmosphere in our area. The current median sold price is up, due to a greater ratio of sales on the higher end," says Jim Homolka, President of RE/MAX Equity Group, Inc.

The other two still somewhat up markets are Seattle (mild up) and Austin (smoking hot).

Anonymous said...

Todays WSJ ...

"Grim Reaper Stalks the RE Banking Street"

TOLL is going to really implode, because its 'partners' are backing out of current projects.

***

I think this last one is really very Bend. As we have long said, any RE-COMMERCIAL project in BEND that was don't done JAN2008, will most likely NEVER be done.

The MONEY is gone.

The first one gets back to our friend the MTG-BOND, e.g. RE finance. Soon their will be nobody to answer the phones at the banks, which means that MTG-BROKERS will have nobody to sell their mortgages to. How many years before the FED rescues the US public with FEDERAL HOUSING LOANS?? The Great-Depression-2 is here.

HEY CACB is back up to 9.99, they must be back buying their own stock again.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Bending It Like The Bulletin

Written by The EYE
Monday, 10 March 2008

The Bend blogosphere is abuzz with the story of a Bulletin reporter who lost his job after complaining the paper was sugar-coating its coverage of the local real estate market.

According to an e-mail that the reporter, David Fisher, sent to Bulletin Human Resources Director Sharlene Crabtree and that has been circulating among the paper’s staff, a story he wrote about the Bend Chamber of Commerce’s annual real estate forecast breakfast on Feb. 25 was edited to take out comments skeptical of an imminent turnaround in the floundering real estate market.

Bend appraiser Dana Bratton told the cheering throng at the Riverhouse Convention Center that the Bend market would start pulling out of the doldrums on April 25.

“You’ve got 60 days to make that great buy, and then they’re onto us, and Bend is going to lead the nation out of this housing recession we’re in,” Fisher’s story quoted Bratton as saying.

Fisher’s original story also included quotes from developer Mike Hollern and others questioning that scenario. But according to Fisher’s e-mail, Business Editor John Stearns edited his copy “in such a way as to remove any facts or opinions that tended to disagree with [Bratton’s] rosy predictions.”

The official line going around The Bulletin newsroom is that Fisher was fired for lying about being sick and taking two days off. Not so, said Fisher in his e-mail: He didn’t claim to be sick, but wanted time to cool down before confronting Stearns about the butchered story and asking to be transferred to a different beat where he could cover the news “without what I perceived to be the editors' emotional desire to slant coverage of the real estate market.”

In his e-mail Fisher said he told Stearns that the editing of the Feb. 26 story was part of a “pattern of editing that included misleading headlines, sources being banned from my coverage, story ideas getting spiked, and odd pre-story cajoling, all of which seemed designed by the executive editor [John Costa] to generate more favorable coverage of the local real estate market than I have thought was best in the two years I have been assigned to cover it for the paper. I further told [Stearns] that, although I believed that the articles I had written for the paper were as thorough and as accurate as I could make them, the utter hack job that was done on my Feb. 26 story had led me to conclude that the paper was not willing to cover the industry as honestly as it should …”

Fisher expressed his concerns in a meeting with Stearns on Feb. 28. On March 3, Fisher wrote, Stearns told him he had discussed his request to change beats with Costa. The next day Fisher was fired.

Contacted by The EYE, Stearns refused to discuss the reason for Fisher’s departure: “I cannot comment on a personnel matter – I hope you understand that.” But he denied the paper was under pressure from real estate interests to apply a positive spin, noting that the business section has recently published several negative stories. “I find it somewhat crazy to think there’s some kind of link between our coverage and what the real estate industry wants us to do,” he said.

The Feb. 25 real estate breakfast marked the official kickoff of the local real estate and building industry’s “Best Buyer’s Market in 20 Years” campaign, and – as The EYE reported a while back – one strategy in that campaign was to apply “economic influence” (read: threats to pull advertising) to make the media publish “good news” about the market.

Asked about the editing of Fisher’s story about that meeting, Stearns replied: “Again, I’m not going to comment on anything related to Dave Fisher. I’m just going to tell you the notion that we are somehow beholden to the real estate industry is ridiculous.”

Is it ridiculous? The EYE reports; you decide.

Anonymous said...

I'm always doing feelers for these loans. Here's a couple other major trends I'm now seeing.

1.) MTG Brokers are now startin to bill for their time, given that NO deals are actually closing. Once your broker tells you you loan is dead ( Always YOUR FAULT, even after he locked you, and told you that you were gold ), then you get a billed for 'research and services'.

It should be interesting if these bills go forward to small claims. I for one would NOT pay, unless it was agreed in writing that you were paying for a service. This deal of a MTG BROKER doing a ALL or NOTHING is now over, I think they'll all try to squeeze $250 for their time, as almost all deals aren't being funded, and they have to pay rent.

2.) Another trend I'm seeing now on ONLINE loans is that after your approved, and locked, they tell you , that you have to FRONT $1,000 for the appraisal, and of course its non-refundable, and of course they own the appraisal company. Appraisals don't mean shit, there is NO money, so again, you'll most likely NOT get the loan, but you will lose $1,000, and the appraisal means NOTHING to anyone.

Nobody can agree on what an appraisal is. I'm finding that BofA is using close to zillow data on average, but USBank is using a factor of about 20% less than zillow for appraisal ( zillow uses comps, and seems to be updated very frequent, and being open is thus dynamic, and not stagnant ). Of course WAMU, and all the regional players are NOW out. Only a few strong players.

So watch OUT, money isn' coming, but MTG-BROKERS will BILL, my guess is that they'll find who pays, and continue work with those people willing to pay for a service hourly forever. The day of ALL or NOTHING mtg-broker is OVER.

Yes, listing are a mess, full service is 6%, but if you agree just for an MLS listing, and you show, the realtor will take only 3%, if you have to drop the price $5k, then this is a way to go. You can do it all yourself for 1.5%, but I think a lot of people go with the 3% package so the realtor can handle the closing.

Everything is changing, and NO assumptions can be made.

For people who have investment-property it is NOW impossible to get cash-out, other than a 10% business loan. You can only get money out of your primary-home now, in theory as even that is difficult.

I'm doing this research so I can line up loans if needed during the next few years, as I expect a lot of my renters to lose their jobs, and I don't want to go into savings, as we don't know how long this depression will last. Always line up the money, before you need it.

Anonymous said...

Asked about the editing of Fisher’s story about that meeting, Stearns replied: “Again, I’m not going to comment on anything related to Dave Fisher. I’m just going to tell you the notion that we are somehow beholden to the real estate industry is ridiculous.”

*

If your in BEND-OREGON, and you say "I'm NOT involved in RE", then your a liar, this town is ONLY about RE, and nothing else.

For the SORE to call the BULL kettle black is PURE fucking BULLshit. The SORE is every bit as much as bought & paid for by the RE & PR Marketing machine as all the other media in this town.

HBM loves to poke fun at his competition, and point off to the blog at his discretion, but the fact is the SORE wasn't there when the bubble was blown up, because the SORE profited very nicely from the street-closures, and city park drunk-a-thons, and all the public events that were designed to attract suckers to come here and buy condo time-shares.

What HBM is doing is just poking fun, at the BULL being embarrassed, but NOTHING about the inherent problem that Bend is FUCKED.

Anonymous said...

The best thing that could happen with this Fischer story, is if the WSJ picked up the story and told it in one of their exposes, about a little town that imploded by greed and stupidity, and how a lot of lives were destroyed, and careers ruined.

They love these kinds of storys, just like clothes-line,

Anonymous said...

Portland is only one of three MSAs still experiencing positive annual growth rates. Portland has been holding strong with median home prices increasing month after month. Fourth quarter 2007 saw a 1.8% increase to $290,500 from $285,400 a year prior.

*

Have you ever heard of a place called Bend, Oregon?? A place where local RE folk tell national statisticians that RE prices only go up, even during a RE depression?

Same with PDX, for the past 1-2 years YOY its going down, yet NAR/MLS reports, and cash-shiller feeds that its up.

I'll say one thing, people are MOVING to PDX, and this is true, they're leaving CALI and coming up here to rent a nice home for $1k, that would cost $2k/mo in cali, trouble of course, is there is NO jobs in Oregon, but they're still coming, and they're looking.

But this doesn't change the fact, that RE is going down, my guess is that PDX RE NAR/MLS is playing with medians, in order to get their 4th-quarter 2007 gain, because I'm seeing 10-20% drops in the past year in PDX.

Then again, whats a mother to say, "NAR MEDIANS DONT MEAN SHIT".

Anonymous said...

I tried to post the following over at the Source, but they have me blocked from posting, just like the BULL, and BENDBB.

Could someone post the following or equivalent at the SORE-EYE story?? The issue is that HBM himself, nobody is stopping him from publishing the Fisher story about over-valuation. ... The SORE ( HBM ) is simply calling the BULL pot kettle black, but we all know that the SORE&BULL are conjoined Siamese twins that share a common asshole.

***

Or better yet let the Source run the original Fisher article.

Rather than poking fun at the loss of jobs, I think HBM should spend some time himself promoting the truth in Bend, Oregon.

Anonymous said...

They are playing games with PDX prices. I get around a bit, CA license plates are rare.

PDX prices are down 10% already, at least. DOM are close to 90 too. Traffic is lighter - no construction traffic. Condo site prep gets done, then just sits. We're just late to the party.

Anonymous said...

*
I'm doing this research so I can line up loans if needed during the next few years, as I expect a lot of my renters to lose their jobs, and I don't want to go into savings, as we don't know how long this depression will last. Always line up the money, before you need it.
*

But if you own your investment homes, what do you need extra cash for?

And if they don't have jobs, why not lower the rent?

timothy said...

Case-Shiller S&P does not use Realtors info. Its methodology is very similar to the census bureau's, the biggest difference being that CS includes the non-conforming loan sales. The census bureau's OFHEO numbers only include repeat sales and refinancing through Freddie and Fannie.

CS is a better version of the census idea, and is very carefully collected. It does have some quirks, of course.

"To be eligible for inclusion in the indices, a house must be a single-family dwelling.
Condominiums and co-ops are specifically excluded. Houses included in the indices
must also have two or more recorded arms-length sale transactions. As a result, new
construction is excluded."

It's calculated monthly as is reported with a two-month lag. It's very carefully done, as people are betting on both sides via futures.

PDF on methodology here (tons of detail):

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/SP_CS_Home_Price_Indices_Methodology_Web.pdf

Portland peaked in July 2007, according to Case-Shiller. The residual gains still showing are therefore from the beginning of the year.

Just as the YOY numbers are laggy going down, so will they be laggy going up.

We're going to see down for a long, long time.

timothy said...

Maybe your day-to-day life hasn't changed much yet. You feel a little bit of unease. You know some people who have gone from feast to famine. You notice the food prices. You notice some tension at work.

But I've got to tell you, as a baseball-loving, stock market-loving, math and stats finance nerd, the most astounding and amazing charts have rolled by over the last year. Weird, unprecedented things are happening inside financial institutions.

Check out this chart. What I love about it is that there's nothing subtle going on in it. You can tell we're having a historic financial epileptic seizure.

It comes from the St Louis Fed. They have all kinds of historic data that you can download.

http://tinyurl.com/3dqh8k

Anonymous said...

Timothy-

Holy... that chart speaks volumes. I mean, DAMN.

And yes, I know what you're saying... I see that tension in my clients eyes. I feel what's going on. Across the land and right in our little desert town, we're seeing the effect of private bankers running our economy into the ground... on purpose.

As Thomas Jefferson said: "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation,the banks and corporations that will
grow up around them (around the banks), will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless
on the continent their fathers conquered."

Read and reread that quote people. Do some research on the Federal Reserve (private bank/corporation that creates money out of nothing and lends it to our gov't with interest... most people do not have a clue about this)and The Council on Foreign Relations for a start. This shit goes deep.

Rock on~

Anonymous said...

Pamela Andrews is a former model who has no journalistic experience or training and therefore can be excused, sort of, for having no sense of journalistic ethics. Costa & Co. can't plead that excuse.

timothy said...

Today the Fed rolled out a plan to trade tbills to banks in exchange for mortgages.

If you felt a disturbance in your wallet today, as if trillions of dollars suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced...

...now you know why.

You can go to sleep tonight knowing that for the next couple dozen years, you'll be earning a paycheck and turning a lot of it over to help out liars, crooks, and idiots.

Anonymous said...

"Check out this chart."

I just did. Gulp.

Feels like looking down at that first big drop on the roller coaster only there ain't no bottom to it.

bruce said...

Re: Timmy's graph

It looks like the wheels are falling off even more than I suspected. That graph is past stunning, it's truly disturbing.

These next few months leading up to the election are going to be interesting. Even money on another major "terrorist" event anyone? I'll go 60-40 if Obama is the Dem nominee.

bruce said...

Another off the charts graph from the St. Louis Fed: http://tinyurl.com/38m35e

I can't even really get my head around how large these anomalies are, let alone their effect down the road.

Anonymous said...

That graph shows more or less the same thing as the other one which is that the banks have no assets on hand and are borrowing like crazy to stay afloat. Funny thing about the graph is that the Great Depression of the 1930s appears to have made barely a blip in the amount of borrowing from the Fed. God knows how this thing will end up because we ain't seen nothin like it before.

HBM said...

Some people here seem to think I run the Source and control what it publishes. I do not. I am a part-time staffer. I write news stories, the Wandering Eye (mostly) and the Boot (mostly). I do not decide what stories get written or who gets to post what on the web site. If you have a complaint about either of those things tell it to Aaron Switzer, the publisher, or Eric Flowers, the editor.

bruce said...

I just can't believe that bank reserves actually went negative in January. You can see the spike that got us out of the post-9/11 recession, but that is tiny compared to the fall in December and January:

2007-09-01 40.973B
2007-10-01 42.252B
2007-11-01 42.281B
2007-12-01 27.154B
2008-01-01 -3.878B

These are the bank reserves. You know, the money that must be kept on hand to stifle a run, like happened in England's Northern Rock a few months ago. Money to pay back depositor's. Is it even legal for them to be negative?

From the Fed about this:
February 08, 2008
Recent Declines in Nonborrowed Reserves

The H.3 statistical release indicates that nonborrowed reserves of depository institutions have declined substantially since mid-December to a level that is now negative. This development reflects the provision of a large volume of reserves through the Term Auction Facility (TAF) and has no adverse implications for the availability of reserves to the banking system.

By definition, nonborrowed reserves are equal to total reserves minus borrowed reserves. Borrowed reserves are equal to credit extended through the Federal Reserve's regular discount window programs as well as credit extended through the TAF. To maintain a level of total reserves consistent with the Federal Open Market Committee's target federal funds rate, increases in borrowed reserves must generally be met by a commensurate decrease in nonborrowed reserves, which is accomplished through a reduction in the Federal Reserve's holdings of securities and other assets. The negative level of nonborrowed reserves is an arithmetic result of the fact that TAF borrowings are larger than total reserves.


So, it's only an arithmetic result of the recent huge infusions of liquidity by the Fed. Doesn't say much about the effect, though, does it?

The MSM business press seems to think it's nothing. From Bloomberg we get This gentleman is overlooking the fact that the Fed is ``a monopoly provider of reserves,'' said Jim Glassman, senior U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. ``This is a non-starter. There is no such thing as a banking system short of reserves. The Fed has absolute control over the supply.''

The WSJ states "It’s probably a false alarm, though. The drop is purely technical, a function of how the Fed has chosen to classify the money lent through its new Term Auction Facility."

Nothing to see folks, just move along...

But I seem to remember reading about a banking system critically short of reserves back in 1929.

Time will tell. It should be an interesting ride. To say the least. I am definitely watching where my money is stored these days.

BTW, I have Olbermann on in the background. He is one of the three TV shows I would recommend to get the real news. The others are Democracy Now and Mosiac.

bruce said...

HBM--thanks for the clarification.

I suspect your "editors" are an issue as well. Maybe an anonymouse blog, like Paul-Doh's?

timothy said...

Note that I didn't say that all the money in the banks disappeared. I simply said that incredibly weird things are happening in the financial institutions. We are in uncharted territory. The system has hit a discontinuity. I have no idea where we go from here.

>>BTW, I have Olbermann on in the background. He is one of the three TV shows I would recommend to get the real news. The others are Democracy Now and Mosiac.

There is no such thing as "real news." There is news that conforms to your preconceptions and biases. I know this because I was a journalist.

The only TV news I ever liked was the The MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour and sometimes This Week with David Brinkley. But that doesn't tell you what news is real. It only tells you about my biases.

I thought Olbermann was fine as a sportscaster.

bruce said...

Re: We are in uncharted territory. The system has hit a discontinuity. I have no idea where we go from here.

Exactly.

On news, you have everything from Fox, who went to court, and won, to prove "news" did not have to be factual, to MacNeil/Lehrer during their prime. Olbermann is still fine, which is why he has overtaken everyone from Tucker to Mathews to Gregory on NBC.

I like news from a very wide variety of sources. Mosaic is a good example.

Anonymous said...

Bend Bulletin Reporter FIRED For Not Hyping Bend Bubble?

Whoa!

*

HOMER Mr. Fisher had been PIMPING the BEND-RE bubble for years, before MOST recently.

Pleeeeeeze don't suggest that they just recently made him do it!

We don't know the truth we'll never know the truth, I predicted long ago there would be BULL layoffs around xmas, well we're a little late, but they'll be giving out a lot of pink slips, and my guess is those that don't help with the "best in 20" are part of the problem, and with the solution.

The BULL is fucked, its a sinking ship, and those that get off now have a chance of NOT drowning.

Anonymous said...

HBM,

We know that your just a part-time elderly gentleman of leisure who likes to write for the Source.

Apologies for suggesting that it is your show, but it often seems that your the only one there that cares about Bend, thus the reason for making you the SORE point man.

If you can't influence mr-switzer aka bend-activity promotion hustler, then nobody can. The SORE is the only print alternative to the BULL, I know you have said many times that your only part-time, and can't influence anything.

HBM, you need to bitch-slap Aaron because if you don't then his business is going to go down like the BULL when this bubble is all over. Like the most recent story about INNof7thMTN, You wrote the story HBM, and it was slanted towards city-hall aka Friedman HOA, Inc. You like to have it both ways, a friend of city-hall, and an outsider, you can't be it all HBM, someday there will be a line drawn in the sand.

This town needs some hard-core enema reporting, and its NOT coming from the BULL or SORE. Its just a matter of time, before competition makes you both redundant. Maybe the new outfit will let you write for free also??

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Pleeeeeeze don't suggest that they just recently made him do it!

I agree. I think they have made him do it for quite awhile. Sounds like he hit the wall. I myself would tolerate much to keep a job that I generally enjoy.

timothy said...

>>I myself would tolerate much to keep a job that I generally enjoy.

So you'll stick with the exotic dancing even though the women treat you like a hunk of meat?

Anonymous said...

There is no such thing as "real news." There is news that conforms to your preconceptions and biases. I know this because I was a journalist. - tim

*

Ok, I studied it to, an it used to be WHO, WHAT, WHERE, WHEN, & WHY in the first paragraph.

The BULL never tells you WHO, might tell you WHERE, What is WHAT they want you to think, and WHEN is when they want to tell you, and WHY is none of your fucking business.

This town is ran as if the citizens were all a bunch of fucking children in a third world country.

The BULL exists to sell advertising, and their advertisers are going out of business, thus the BULL can only try and make 'best in 20' sticky. It ain't going to work, we're going to see a lot of pain.

We all need to demand WHO,WHAT,WHEN, WHERE, & WHY from our next newspaper, long after the BULL & SORE are memory.

I agree with TIM in a way when one person owns a newspaper it tends to have an agenda, with all these blogs there is no reason to subscribe to the BULL other than to reload your blogger-fodder. News doesn't have to be manufactured, but it is in Bend, because the 'news' would bother people. When I google "bend oregon" using google-news, all I ever see is SPORTS. Which is the only thing that the owners allow anybody to talk about, but TIM, it doesn't have to be this way, the problem is the public will not pay for information. Thus they get free advertising, we have all known all along here that the BULL is 90% verbatim press releases.

The real issue is if FISHER ever had a soul in the first place, how did he last so long??

HBM is just having fun, like us, and he doesn't want to rock the boat like duncan, because people know who he is.

Bend is fucked, sometime perhaps people can tell the truth in this town without being anonymous, but I don't see it coming anytime soon.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Non-Borrowed Reserves:

Measure of banking system reserves, consisting of Total Reserves (member bank deposits in Federal Reserve Banks, plus vault cash), less funds borrowed (Borrowed Reserves) at the Federal Reserve Discount Window. The amount of nonborrowed reserves is computed weekly by the Federal Reserve. See also Net Free Reserves.

Total Reserves:

Sum of the deposits that depository institutions may count toward their legal Reserve Requirements. Included in the calculation are reserve account balances on deposit with a reserve bank during the most recent week, currency and coin in a bank's vault, including cash in transit to or from reserve banks. The Monetary Control Act requires most depository institutions to keep reserve balances either directly or indirectly with the Federal Reserve.

Borrowed Reserves:

Funds borrowed by member banks from a Federal Reserve Bank for the purpose of maintaining the required reserve ratios.

Reserve Requirements:

Requirements regarding the amount of funds that banks must hold in reserve against deposits made by their customers. This money must be in the bank's vaults or at the closest Federal Reserve bank.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

So you'll stick with the exotic dancing even though the women treat you like a hunk of meat?

Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh yes.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

What's also odd about that Bank-Reserves-Gone-Vertical, is that it has been declining since the mid-90's.

What would be the reason for that?

timothy said...

>>Ok, I studied it to, an it used to be WHO, WHAT, WHERE, WHEN, & WHY in the first paragraph.

By the time I got into the business (the 80s), that was just what you studied. It was not what you practiced.

I once had a conversation with a brilliant gal (perfect SATs math & english) who was a reporter for the Sacramento paper. This was back in the 90s. She really wanted to know why people had it in for newspapers.

I'm not sure what I'd say now. What I said back then was that everything of substance was coming from just the AP, the UPI, and a couple of the giant papers in NY and Chicago and LA. For the important stuff, no one was reporting anything. Thousands of stories streamed in to each paper and some small group used the ones that fit their outlooks. You didn't follow a story where it went, you selected your biases from many, many choices, molding it into a sickening reflection of the staff.

For instance, two studies came out almost at the same time. One suggested not spanking a child was better, and another suggesting that spanking that was not abuse worked fine as well. Very predictably, most papers went with the former story and no mention of the latter, even though both studies appeared as valid scientifically. So a scientific story got selected based on the social biases of reporters and editors (who are almost always ignorant of science).

The sins of the media are many. They report with gusto, of course, the things that titillate readers and sell papers. This makes people think, because people have no innate feel for statistics, that the world is awash in danger. That's why kids are not allowed to roam anymore. I saw a striking map a couple years that showed a map and outlined the ranges of travel for different generations. Grandpa, as a 10-year old, played in the creek two miles from home. Father wasn't allowed that far, but still make it several blocks away and was reliably out of voice range at dinner time. Current kid can't go two blocks.

Yes, there are some dangers to kids. But there always have been.

The Bulletin has to be surprising enough to keep readers, but boring enough to keep advertisers. It's a losers' game, and I'm glad I bailed on it.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

HBM said...

Some people here seem to think I run the Source and control what it publishes. I do not.


Dude, he calls me a smelly cunt like 100X/day. And I think I'm near the top of his short list.

Anonymous said...

I agree. I think they have made him do it for quite awhile. Sounds like he hit the wall.

*

It's been going down now for two years, and the BULL still doesn't allow much to come out.

Hell the town could be a leper colony, and the BULL would still be talking about beautiful rich moving here.

Complete fucking dis-connect, I think that FISHER is what he is, he is a whore, the FEAR, SELF-PITY, and dis-connect from reality that COSTA is/was demanding is obviously increasing. Rather than pure random layoffs, my guess he's just increasing pressure. He probably said shit like "I want ten positive story for every negative", in Todays climate, FISHER just cracked, he couldn't do it, its like DUMBYA's war, death all over, and you sent out to write positive storys.

The 'best in 20' is the SURGE, and the trouble is there is NOTHING good to write about. Costa doesn't need to layoff people their going to be committing suicide and jumping out of windows.

timothy said...

13 months ago...

"A few blocks away above the Old Mill’s retail district, The Plaza, a purely residential condominium project, has moved 12 of its 42 units so far, owner and Realtor Becky Breeze said, at prices ranging from around $600,000 to nearly $2 million, although the building won’t be move-in ready until June.

The buyers have come “from all over the country,” Breeze said. One is from England. About half are planning to use their units as primary homes. The other half are second-home buyers."

timothy said...

10 months ago...

"A few blocks away, The Plaza is expected to have models ready to show next month, Breeze said. So far, 14 of the building's 42 units are under contract. Prices average around $650,000 to $700,000 for units in the all-residential building, but the most expensive unit so far -- a top-floor penthouse with views of the river, The Shops at The Old Mill District and the Cascades, went under contract for $1.999 million at Christmas."

timothy said...

Hey, this blog made the front page of patrick.net.

::waves to patrickers::

timothy said...

http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html

Anonymous said...

What's also odd about that Bank-Reserves-Gone-Vertical, is that it has been declining since the mid-90's.

What would be the reason for that?

*

Same thing I have writing and talking about this for almost thirty years.

Lets go back to the depression, then it was 10 to 1 leverage. This is a major reason that stuff fell 10X as the leverage enjoyed by the banks was 10 to 1.

Now jump to today, just twenty years ago it was 100 to 1, and now 1000 to 1, thus that's why you see these insane numbers now for shortfall of reserves.

Everyone in banking knows its a joke, the other day a banking gal friend was telling at USBANK that somebody just got there Ben Franklin FDIC check from the failure in the 1980's, it took 20 years to get a portion of the money back. She went on to mention that FDIC is only obligated to return a portion of your money in 99 years.

Politically, economically its a new frontier. This is why we have Iraq, this is why we're going to war with Iran. In order to force the world to use the dollar, we must wage war on the world, as our currency is without value, and our banks have virtually no reserve.

Don't worry your FDIC insured.

Let's get back to the Bend-Bubble, and enjoy Bend, and watching the BULL implode.

Yes, pay NO attention to the men behind the curtain running our banking system. Remember its Federal Reserve System, without the 'reserves', but who needs reserves, when the only opposition to US imperialism is death? The only down side to all this is 'what you sow, so shall ye reap', eventually the USA will reap that which it has brought on the world, but that will be long after all of are dead.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html

Ah ha. That explains yesterdays largest traffic spike in this little ol blogs history. By far.

Thanks Patrick.net. We've been Pat-dotted!

Anonymous said...

Nine months ago, ...

http://bendbubble.blogspot.com/2007/07/this-is-story-about-terrible-mistake.html


In ten years the Old-MILL condo-whore-canyon will be all crack-whore apartments, and the city may be able to condemn the place and start over. PLEASE hold off on Juniper-Ridge out in the desert, and please condemn the Old-Mill today, raze what you can... Remember all those building's near REI are just MTG & realty shops, they're all going to be empty. They'll be class rooms.

The OLD-MILL area will be a great campus, and then prof's can walk to work, NO prof wants to be out in the desert underneath the Redmond Airport jet traffic. Prof's want to bike to and from home, their preferred lifestyle is generally the same as the students.

We MUST Condemn the condo-canyon, ( Old Mill ) the empty un-sold over-valued condo's all make great student housing, the empty MTG&RE commercial building's will be class rooms. The core REI area can be administration. Geezers and kids and DOGS can walk the river boardwalk what a dream.

Anonymous said...

http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com/housing-bubble-whats-the-trouble-video-of-the-week-17/806

Here's a country-western song on the 'housing bubble' for Marge, its got musak & pics.

Anonymous said...

This makes people think ... that the world is awash in danger.

****

Uuuuuuhhhhhhh ... this sounds a lot like you guys. Especially today. Just saying .... you guys are more depressing than usual. I know the economy's going to tank, but now there will be a run on the banks? Jebus I'm scared. Might as well pray for a nuclear war -- the pain will be over quicker.

Anonymous said...

a top-floor penthouse with views of The Shops at The Old Mill District ... went under contract for $1.999 million at Christmas.

***

suuuuccckkkkerrr!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

If you go to http://centraloregonrealtors.com/, you find that they went All In on the Best Buyer Buttbanging Market in 20 Years bullshit, putting links right on their homepage, on the right column. And the pages they link to are IMAGES.

Classy.

bruce said...

More financial meltdown stuff:

Hedge Funds Reel From Margin Calls Even on Treasuries (Update1)

By Tom Cahill and Katherine Burton

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- The hedge-fund industry is reeling from its worst crisis in a decade as banks are now demanding more money pledged to support outstanding loans even when the investment is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States.

Since Feb. 15, at least six hedge funds, totaling more than $5.4 billion, have been forced to liquidate or sell holdings because their lenders -- staggered by almost $190 billion of asset writedowns and credit losses caused by the collapse of the subprime-mortgage market -- raised borrowing rates by as much as 10-fold with new claims for extra collateral.

While lenders are most unsettled by credit consisting of real estate and consumer debt, bankers are now attempting to raise the rates they charge on Treasuries, considered the world's safest securities, because of the price fluctuations in the bond market.

``If you have leverage, you're stuffed,'' said Alex Allen, chief investment officer of London-based Eddington Capital Management Ltd., which has $195 million invested in hedge funds for clients. He likens the crisis to a bank panic turned upside down with bankers, not depositors, concerned they won't get their money back.

The lending crackdown is the worst to hit the $1.9 trillion hedge-fund industry since Russia's debt default in 1998 roiled global credit markets and required the U.S. Federal Reserve to pressure the securities industry to arrange a $3.6 billion bailout of Greenwich, Connecticut-based Long-Term Capital Management LP. Today, hedge funds are being forced to sell assets to meet banks' margin calls, resulting in the dissolution of the funds.

``There has to be more in the next weeks,'' Allen said. ``There are people who have been hanging on by their fingernails who can't hold on much, much longer.''

`Mercy of Counterparties'

Ivan Ross, founder of Westport, Connecticut-based hedge fund Tequesta Capital Advisors, received a call from his bankers on Feb. 22 demanding he put up more money or risk losing his loans. Ross was unable to meet the margin call as the market for mortgage- backed debt seized up, preventing him from selling securities to raise the cash. Four days later, lenders liquidated his $150 million fund.

``Because it's impossible in this environment to move among dealers, you're at the mercy of counterparties,'' said the 45-year- old Ross, who has managed hedge funds for 13 years, including a stint handling mortgage-backed debt for billionaire George Soros. ``To the extent they want to shut you down, they can.''

The demise of Tequesta revealed the deathtrap for hedge funds caught in the credit maelstrom of banks selling mortgage-backed bonds as fast as they can while demanding more collateral from clients who use the securities to back loans.

Carlyle Fund

On Feb. 24, London-based Peloton Partners LLP gave up a ``night and day'' effort to stave off demands from banks, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and UBS AG, for as much as 25 percent collateral for securities that once required 10 percent, according to investors in the fund. Peloton, run by former Goldman partners Ron Beller and Geoff Grant, liquidated the $1.8 billion ABS Fund, its largest.

The same day, about 5,000 miles (7,770 kilometers) away in Santa Fe, New Mexico, JPMorgan Chase & Co. told Thornburg Mortgage Inc. that it had defaulted on a $320 million loan because it couldn't meet a $28 million margin call, according to U.S. regulatory filings.

Thornburg, the home lender that lost 93 percent of its market value in the past year, was near collapse March 7 after it failed to meet $610 million of margin calls. Chief Executive Officer Larry Goldstone said in a statement the company fell victim to a ``panic that has gripped the mortgage financing industry.''

Repo Agreements

Carlyle Capital Corp., the debt-investment fund started by private-equity firm Carlyle Group of Washington, was suspended from trading in Amsterdam on March 7 after it couldn't meet margin calls, and its banks seized and sold assets.

``Banks are reducing exposure anywhere they can and the shortest way to do that is to cut leverage,'' said John Godden, chief executive officer of London-based hedge-fund consultant IGS AIS LLP.

Hedge funds are mostly private pools of capital whose managers participate substantially in the profits from their speculation on whether the price of assets will rise or fall.

The managers that trade fixed-income securities generally borrow money through repurchase agreements, or repos. In a repo, the security itself is used as collateral, just as a homeowner puts up the house as collateral for a mortgage.

Collateral `Haircuts'

Banks usually limit their risk on repos by lending less than the value of the securities used as collateral. Tequesta was able to borrow $95 on $100 worth of AAA rated jumbo prime mortgages in early 2007, meaning the bank took a $5, or 5 percent so-called haircut. By last month, the amount required had risen to as much as 30 percent, Ross said. Jumbo mortgages are loans of more than $417,000, typically used to finance more expensive homes.

The losses started in mid-2007, when prices of subprime loans, those to homeowners with bad credit histories, started tumbling because of a surge in delinquencies. The contagion spread to other credit markets, including bonds backed by student loans and credit cards and now mortgages backed by federal agencies, which have an implied guarantee from the U.S. government.

Prices keep falling, with yields on mortgage-backed debt issued by agencies such as Fannie Mae rising last week to the highest level relative to U.S. Treasuries since 1986. Costs to protect corporate bonds from default are close to a record high.

Under such circumstances, lenders have no choice but to ask clients to put up more cash. For AAA rated residential mortgage backed securities, banks have raised haircuts 10-fold in the past year to 20 percent, according to estimates from Citigroup credit analyst Hans Peter Lorenzen in London.

Treasury Swings

On AAA asset-backed securities, banks are demanding a 15 percent haircut, up from 3 percent last summer. Corporate bond haircuts have gone to 10 percent from 5 percent, bankers said.

At least one bank has raised Treasury haircuts, which range from 0.25 percent to 3 percent, depending on the length of the loan and the creditworthiness of the borrower, said bankers, who declined to be identified. They said they wouldn't be surprised if the practice becomes more widespread, not because they expect the U.S. government to default, but rather because there have been bigger price swings in the Treasury market, which affects value.

Some banks may have been late to raise haircuts for their biggest hedge funds because they are lucrative clients, said Jochen Felsenheimer, head of credit strategy at Milan-based UniCredit SpA, Italy's biggest bank.

``Until now, hedge funds have been the big winners of the crisis and this could be as well due to banks not having yet drawn down their margin,'' Felsenheimer said.

Survival of Fittest

Carlyle said in a March 6 statement that margin prices requested for securities weren't ``representative of the underlying recoverable value'' of its securities. Lenders started to liquidate its portfolio of $22 billion of AAA rated mortgage debt issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

``It's not a question of prime brokers deciding which firms live and which don't,'' said Odi Lahav, head of the European Alternate Investment Group at Moody's Investors Service in London. ``They're trying to manage their own risk. There's a Darwinian aspect to survivorship in this industry.''

Some managers set themselves up for a stumble by taking on too much leverage and not anticipating that terms could change, said Christopher Cruden, CEO of Lugano, Switzerland-based Insch Capital Management, which oversees $150 million for clients.

``If you're going to dance with the devil, there comes a time when your toes are going to be stepped on,'' Cruden said. ``Prime brokers are there to do business, not be your friend.''


These margin calls are multiplying fast.

bruce said...

Yet more on problems with US treasuries:

Treasuries Riskier Than Bunds, Default Swaps Show (Update1)

By Abigail Moses

March 11 (Bloomberg) -- The risk of losses on U.S. Treasury notes exceeded German bunds for the first time ever amid investor concern the subprime mortgage crisis is sapping government reserves, credit-default swaps prices show.

Contracts on 10-year Treasuries traded at a record 16 basis points earlier today, compared with 15 basis points on German government notes, according to data compiled by BNP Paribas SA. In July, U.S. credit-default swaps were at 1.6 basis points, compared with 2.5 basis points on bunds.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke announced plans today to lend as much as $200 billion of Treasury notes in exchange for debt including private mortgage-backed bonds to avert an exodus from the securities that threatens to deepen the housing slump and economic slowdown.

``The U.S. government is not immune from the consequences of the credit crisis,'' said Fabrizio Capanna, BNP's head of high-grade corporate trading in London. ``Support for troubled financial institutions in the U.S. will be perceived as a weakening of U.S. sovereign credit.''

The Fed is trying to ease investor concern that a decline in house valuations and record foreclosures will add to losses for companies including Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the two biggest providers of U.S. mortgages. The $4.5 trillion of agency mortgage securities is about the same size as the market for Treasury notes.

Credit-default swaps are used to speculate on the ability of companies or governments to repay their debt and offer a benchmark for pricing securities. The contracts pay the buyer face value in exchange for the underlying securities or the cash equivalent should a borrower fail to adhere to its debt agreements. A decline indicates improvement in the perception of credit quality; an increase, the opposite.

Hoarding Treasuries

A basis point on a credit-default swap contract protecting $10 million of debt from default for 10 years is equivalent to $1,000 a year.

The risk of owning U.S. debt is rising as the world's largest economy is expected to slow, balloon the national deficit and likely increase the amount the government needs to borrow.

The U.S. economy's rate of expansion anticipated for all of 2008 is 1.4 percent, the weakest since the recession of 2001, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Germany's gross domestic product will increase at a 1.6 percent annual rate, according to a separate survey.

Budget Deficit

The Bush administration forecasts a $410 billion budget deficit for this fiscal year ending Sept. 30, approaching the record of $413 billion set in 2004. The budget shortfall will force the Treasury Department to increase its borrowing by 145 percent from $163 billion, according to UBS Securities LLC.

The U.S. current account deficit is expected to be 4.8 percent of GDP in 2008, while Germany is expected to have a 5.5 percent surplus, according to separate surveys.

Investors and securities firms have hoarded Treasuries during the credit crisis because they are considered the safest and most easily traded securities, reducing yields on two-year notes to the lowest since 2003. Yields on Treasuries have been lower than on German bunds since October.

U.S. two-year note yields rose today by the most since March 1996 to 1.77 percent from 1.49 percent on Bernanke's plan.


And in other Bloomberg news, the dollar is almost to record lows against the Euro and yen, and is expected to drop farther in a survey of their customers. Might be almost time to buy dollars...

bruce said...

And in BULL-SUNNY world, things are fucking awesome, and about to get even better!

A splash of upscale in downtown Bend
A new restaurant and a private social club slated for Bond Street
By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin
Published: March 12. 2008 4:00AM PST

A restaurant and private social club are scheduled to be the first two businesses at Bend’s new 919 Bond building in downtown Bend.

Volo, billed as an upscale yet casual restaurant serving contemporary American cuisine, is scheduled to open May 1 on the ground floor of the four-story building, located next door to the D&D Bar & Grill.

The social club, called The Loft of Bend, will be limited to 250 members who each will have their own temperature-controlled lockers for storing cases of wine and access to the club’s facilities, said Adam Bledsoe, the owner and operator. Bledsoe’s brother, former NFL quarterback and fellow Bend resident Drew Bledsoe, also is a partner in the venture, scheduled to open by late June.

The second-floor club will cater to the growing ranks of destination resort residents in Central Oregon who want to meet downtown for a catered business meeting or to entertain guests, Adam Bledsoe said.

“It’s like a country club minus the golf,” he said.


Another partner, Whitefish, Mont., attorney Chad Wold, also founded The Loft of Whitefish and The Loft of Missoula in Montana, Adam Bledsoe said.

The 4,800-square-foot club will become a center for business and charity meetings, private events and parties, Adam Bledsoe said.

Membership rates will be approximately $200 per month plus a still undetermined initiation fee, he said.

The other half of the second floor will have office suites and a common area with kitchen and conference area, copy machines and a central phone system, said Elizabeth Justema, a spokeswoman for Taylor Pickhardt Development LLC, which developed the 919 Bond building.

Second-floor office suite tenants also could have access to The Loft of Bend, Adam Bledsoe said.

The top two floors will have two 2,261- to 2,669-square-foot condominiums on each floor starting at $1.2 million, Justema said.

Guests of private parties at Volo, members of The Loft of Bend and the four condominium owners also will have access to rooftop gardens atop the building, she said.

Volo will occupy a 4,000-square-foot space in the 60,000-square-foot building.

The food will be contemporary American cuisine, said Chris Jones, the restaurant’s owner.

“It will be suitable for San Francisco, but I wanted to make sure it fit Bend’s casual nature,” Jones said of the restaurant he’s been planning for two years.

Jones, a former photographer who moved to Bend three years ago from New York City, has traveled the world twice and wanted to re-create the “hip, sophisticated restaurant” environment that he saw in the world’s cultural centers, he said.

Jones said he moved to Bend for the quality of life and convinced the restaurant’s chef, friend Victor Sommo, to follow him from New York City.

“I’ve eaten at a lot of good restaurants and have always been into really great food,” Jones said. “I wanted to create a restaurant that could provide that food for everyone here in Bend.”

Jones said he’ll attempt to distinguish Volo with its design, food and ambience in an increasingly competitive restaurant environment downtown. It’s designed to be different, he said.

“I’m trying to improve the city and hope that opening the restaurant will make Bend a better place,” Jones said.

Jeff McDonald can be reached at 383-0323 or jmcdonald@bendbulletin.com.


"“It’s like a country club minus the golf,” [Bledsoe] said."

What a concept!

bruce said...

Oh, damn, I forgot to bold that last sentence: “I’m trying to improve the city and hope that opening the restaurant will make Bend a better place,” Jones said.

Yep, that's what we need, allrighty.

bruce said...

Meanwhile in reality, 39 NODs and counting in Deschutes County for March. A couple biggees: Desert Sun Holdings, LLC for over $1 million, NOD filed yesterday, and Aspen Landing, LLC, for over $3.5 million, filed 3/7/08.

Ain't over 'til the fat lady is done singing and her ass is sitting on the porch of an STD east of 27th...

bruce said...

Aspen Landing had a second NOD filed against them on the 7th as well, on a $9+ million land dev loan.

I think we're starting to see the local collateral damage of the global liquidity crisis. It's hitting home, pushing builders over the edge as they can't refinance and hold on anymore. Like that quote in the Bloomberg article above about expecting more hedge fund defaults soon as so many have been just hanging on by their fingernails. Same with our local developers.

Anonymous said...

Volo, billed as an upscale yet casual restaurant serving contemporary American cuisine, is scheduled to open May 1 on the ground floor of the four-story building, located next door to the D&D Bar & Grill.

*

You newbies probably let this escape you, but in the day, the D&D was the most dangerous bar in town. Drunken fights, whores, it was Bend.

Having a high end whore-house next door so the richest in Bend can fuck each other, and kill each other over the last penny's to fleece the population will be a fitting end of the bend-bubble.

Big D&D, Little D&D, side by side. One for the rich pimps, the other for the rich pimps.

Anonymous said...

If you go to http://centraloregonrealtors.com/, you find that they went All In on the Best Buyer Buttbanging Market in 20 Years bullshit, putting links right on their homepage, on the right column. - Homer

***

Shit even buster has drank the kool-aide, 'best in 20' is good for all of us. In Bend its not the fact that matter, its the feelings.

http://bendbubble.blogspot.com/2008/02/best-bend-re-market-in-2028.html

Given that buster has joined the 'best in 20' parade, you know that the bend-bubble can now be re-inflated.

Anonymous said...

The social club, called The Loft of Bend, will be limited to 250 members who each will have their own temperature-controlled lockers for storing cases of wine and access to the club’s facilities, said Adam Bledsoe, the owner and operator. Bledsoe’s brother, former NFL quarterback and fellow Bend resident Drew Bledsoe, also is a partner in the venture, scheduled to open by late June.

*

This guy reminds me of DUNCANS issue yesterday, people come to this town, and buy a home, and then spend all their money on trying to have their own biz, now this is BIG scale, but its BIG LOSS. I hope dunc reads this story.

This guy Bledsoe owns a whole bunch of lots up a Highland@BT, and also has a super mcMansion up there in that gated community +$10M home, 18 bath, 24 car garage, ... Now he's putting all his money ( retired? NFL player ) into downtown Bend, I'm sure hoping to get investors into this urban-resort without golf.

This is all pathetic, they come to BEND for the outdoor lifestyle? They build urban cocoons so they can consume wine, hell they could this anywhere why Bend? At least the city-of-bend is no longer paying for the wine. This same bunch has the Carerra ( porsche ) dealer ship on I97, and you can keep your car there in its own humidor, and you also can have your own wine locker, ... and they have a view, ...

How many wine/auto humidors does this little desert shit-hole need?

More to the question, how long will recently 'rich' squander their wealth in this town? How long will they follow dunc's dream of starting their own biz in Bend??

Wells Fargo here in Bend, has these investor 'councilors' for the rich, and they tell newbies to put all their money into Bend RE & biz, cuz it only goes up 25%/yr APR, and its still only goes up, so you have a lot of this new money in Bend, that is directed back into Bend, ALL I can say is watch out in two years, its going to be a ton of lawsuits, once all these millionaires are paupers.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The Loft of Bend

I can actually see something like that succeeding... someday. Its being started at the worst possible time, but rich motherfuckers love to get hammered & bang each others trophy wife MILF's.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Think about it: $200/mo for a completely legal whorehouse where you drink good wine, fuck your friends wives with newly installed double D's? Shit, that's a bargain.

Ask Elliott "Spits-or-Swallows" Spitzer.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The 2 above articles posted by Bruce, "Treasuries Riskier Than Bunds, Default Swaps Show, and "Hedge Funds Reel From Margin Calls Even on Treasuries", are really good. Especially the Hedge Fund piece.

Nice.

Anonymous said...

... hell they could this anywhere why Bend?

***
Those who can live in Vail: Those who can't live in Bend.

Sad but true that all those rich fuckers really wanted to live in Vail, but realized they would just be second or third class citizens there. So they moved to Bend where they could be the kings and queens of the town high up on Hightop.

HBM said...

"You like to have it both ways, a friend of city-hall, and an outsider, you can't be it all HBM"

I don't take sides, I call 'em as I see 'em. That often makes people mad at me. I don't give a damn about that. But I do give a damn when people accuse me of having all sorts of hidden agendas.

And I thought the Inn of 7th story was pretty well balanced with quotes from both sides. But evidently you don't because it didn't slam Friedman. Whatever.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

“I’m trying to improve the city and hope that opening the restaurant will make Bend a better place,” Jones said.

Why do people feel the need to inject this sort of bleeding-heart liberal bullshit into purely monetary decisions?

If this guy opened this restaurant for any other reason than to make money, he's a fuckin retard.

Anonymous said...

If this guy opened this restaurant for any other reason than to make money, he's a fuckin retard.

*

You claim to have started this blog for reasons other than money. Does that make you a fuckin retard too?

Anonymous said...

HBM wrote:
"And I thought the Inn of 7th story was pretty well balanced with quotes from both sides. But evidently you don't because it didn't slam Friedman. Whatever."
---------

HBruce (not to be confused with brucey-pussy, or did we stop calling him the pussy part? ... I musta missed that memo) here is the deal on that little article: The "talking points" from the regime here on this blog has mandated that all things Friedman and Pape must be negative, and not fair and balanced. Now, since you are a FoxNews conservative kinda guy (lol, I crack myself up!), you felt the need to be fair and balanced about the Inn Seventh Resort article you wrote. That was not part of the this blog's talking points, so you rightly got blasted. You disobeyed the regime. You must be punished. You are lucky you are not in some gulag somewhere.

Back to the Inn fiasco, the local geniouses (commenters) on this blog thought that Pape and Friedman would be in jail by now, and the 'new board' would be running things. What is the current status? Oh, yeah, the judge did not hand the keys to the Inn over to that false new board. Pape and Friedman are still running the show, and the screamers on this blog are very silent about their previous babbling's about Friendman and Pape going to jail.

My prediction, the judge will validate that the old board won the election, that the new board did not win that election to recall the old board, and I further predict that the old board will scale back the special assessment somewhat, but that Pape will get their $5-7M that they already invested in the place.

HBM, do a follow up article in June when the judge hold her hearing. And do stop by here occasionally, if only to stir things up with the locals.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

You claim to have started this blog for reasons other than money. Does that make you a fuckin retard too?

Oh no! He's got me by the logical short hairs!

I've leave that one out there for someone else to ravage. Sometimes the fruit hangs so low, you have to bend over to pick it....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Dude, I'm not trying to put down your idea of starting a restaurant, but for the love of Christ, WHY do you feel the need to justify it with bullshit societal welfare reasons?

If you need some non-monetary justification, just say you're doing it for the love of food.

Starting a restaurant to "improve Bend"? Please. That just indicates you've got delusions of grandeur & voted Kerry/Edwards 50X.

It also indicates a scarcity of imagination & a Me Too business plan, but I don't want to be a Buzz Kill. You'll find out soon enough that Bend cannot take another hi-end restaurant downtown. Typhoon is as close to a 100% guaranteed lock, and I walk by there with the place largely empty. "Barely Surviving" is about the best you could possibly hope for down there.

What's your lease? Did you do ANY breakeven, that factor in Reality?

No. Virtually every business started in primo spots downtown are destined to wipe the owners 401K, that's it.

Don't believe me? Go read Dunc's stuff. Now there's a Real Buzz Killington.

Anonymous said...

"Don't believe me? Go read Dunc's stuff. Now there's a Real Buzz Killington."

UMMM ... DUNCAN SUGGESTS THAT THIS ONE MAY PENCIL.


"Oh no! He's got me by the logical short hairs!"
YES HE/SHE DOES. MORE TO THE POINT, I DOUBT THESE PEOPLE ARE TRYING TO MAKE BIG MONEY. MORE LIKELY, THEY JUST WANT SOMEPLACE TO GO AND HANG OUT WITH LIKE FOLK.

Anonymous said...

Not make money?

Hang out with like folk?

A "gated community" restaurant?

I wish I had money to burn.
What a dolt!!

"Look at me!!! Hey, everybody, LOOK AT ME!!! I HAVE MONEY TO BURN!! I CAN START A PRIVATE CLUB FOR ME AND MY HOMIES!! IT WON'T MAKE ANY MONEY!! BUT SO WHAT!! I HAVE MONEY TO BURN!!

Going "bledsoe": kinda like going postal, but much more stupid, and with much more money and class!

timothy said...

>>You claim to have started this blog for reasons other than money. Does that make you a fuckin retard too?

Well duh. Of course he is.

Bend Economy Man said...

Dunc: Tell him to talk to the Source. Or one of the online blogs.

Duncan, that's cute. "Online blogs." As opposed to those blogs that were on the radio back in the good old days?

Anonymous said...

You claim to have started this blog for reasons other than money...
***

At the risk of being painfully obvious to anyone with more than one brain cell, I'm putting this out there for the author of that truly stupid comment comparing a cost-intensive, time-intensive, never-a-day-off restaurant business (high-end, no less) with no-cost, minimal-time-required blog. One word: Idiot! (wow that was low-hanging)

Ironically, this blog is actually helping Bend by educating people before they become the next poor-sucker resident to waste their hard-earned money on the most over-priced RE is the US. When the RE comes down to normal, maybe Bend can regain some of the quality it lost to the greedy scam brigade.

However, PD, it's a great laugh that this person actual thought they "gottcha!"

Anonymous said...

Going "bledsoe": kinda like going postal, but much more stupid, and with much more money and class!
***

Uh no ... LESS class!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

However, PD, it's a great laugh that this person actual thought they "gottcha!"

Dude, thanks for kissing my ass you fuckin retard.

Duncan McGeary said...

I think the 'private' club pencils out.

Downstairs is another story. I think another high end restaurant downtown is like adding another couple of swimmers to the life-raft. They'll be eating each other in no time.

bruce said...

Three more NOD's filed today. So far this month, 42 and counting.

I wonder how that compares to Deschutes County home sales.

Actually, if you count the Aspen Landing and Desert Sun NODs, there are probably 15-20 total lots there. Don't know how many partial homes.

BENDBUST said...

HOMER, FYI record, the person who wrote the below and using my sig is NOT me, but this comment was so pathetic that I had step in so that you would know that I still love you.

Blesdoe is spending money, because he has money, and lots of it, IMHO he'll be broke in five years.

Homer blogs for the same reason as all the rest of us, he doesn't have a life.

***

If this guy opened this restaurant for any other reason than to make money, he's a fuckin retard.

*

You claim to have started this blog for reasons other than money. Does that make you a fuckin retard too?

Anonymous said...

Good day on the blog.

Dear HBM-PUSSY,

I suggest everyone here go back and read the SORE article about INN@7thMTN that HBM wrote, it was the biggest fucking COCK SUCKING SUCKUP to Freidman, and status quo EVER. PERIOD.

HBM wants to be invited to the best partys and hang with the best people in Bend, but then also wants to be seen as sympathetic to the common man.

HBM is what in the South we call a House-Nigger, he ain't ever going to own a plantation, but he thinks that if he cozy to the master he will.

The rest of us field-niggers that bought time-share condos up at INN@7thMTN will have to pay Friedman forever, his HIGH monthly HOA fee's for services rendered so that he can invite HBM to the fucking party.

No HBM your story was NOT balanced, and you told the story ONLY FROM the point of VIEW of PAPE & FRIEDMAN.

There was a ton of opportunity to get the story balanced because loren waxman and doctor whats his face, had been working with you on the story since early December. You only published the story in the SORE about a month ago. I know many of the players, and they personally told me that they had HAD FED you everything to write a balanced story and you didn't do it.

Now are you going to tell us that MASTER AARON, censored your story like COSTA?? I DONT FUCKING THINK SO, cuz MASTER AARON lets you run fucking editorial SHOW @ the SORE, for all the meaty issues that count.

The fucking story was 99% the world according to Friedman/Pape. Now maybe its true that your not some dumb fucking cunt on their payroll. But like TIM eloquently said about the press a few days ago.

ALL PRESS OUTCOME is decided in advance, and like someone here published earlier today, YOU & the COURT have already decided to FUCK the little people so as to protect Johnson & Friedman.

Thus HBM-Pussy you are worse than a fucking patsy or gopher, hell your worse than fisher, at least they were paying him to lie.

HBM-Pussy lies for free. Now thats fucking pathetic, and the only reason he does so is because he's a fucking HOUSE NIGGER, that thinks if he SUCKS MASTER cock, he might become white.

Anonymous said...

LOL

For free = a whore
For pay = a prostitute

"Kristen" the NYC hooker who did the Governor, now she was a high priced lay.

So, you just saying that HBM is a good for nothing freebie?

bruce said...

OK, I'm going to lay my politics out in the open, probably not for the first time, but DKos is on fire today.

First up, Keith Olbermann dissing Hillary and Ferraro with a Special Comment on the "...he's only there because he is black" riff from the other day:

I do not do this lightly, and I do not do this happily.

There is no exaggeration in this preamble, and when I say the words on "more in sorrow than in anger" on the air tonight, I will mean them and mean them profoundly.
...
It sounds as if those advisors want their campaign to be associated with those words, and the cheap... ignorant... vile... racism that underlies every syllable.

And that Geraldine Ferraro has just gone free-lance.

Senator Clinton:
This is not a campaign strategy.

This is a suicide pact.


Next, a White woman doing the same:

I have always considered myself to be a liberal, progressive woman who is trying to provide for my family and to be the woman my mother raised me to be as well as an example of a good citizen to my children, especially to my daughter.
...
I was raised by a wonderful, strong, capable and blind White woman. She was not rich. Her mother was an alcoholic who was married six times. She never knew her father. She attended the St. Augustine School for the Deaf and Blind in Florida from the time she was six until she graduated from high school. She could have whined and complained about life but she didn’t. She was smart and capable and strong. Upon graduation from the St. Augustine school, she attended Barry College (now Barry University) on a full academic scholarship from the Lions Club. She graduated cum laude with a degree in Music and Education. She taught sighted children in fourth grade with the help of a sighted aide. She married a sighted man and stayed married to him until he passed away. She instilled in my sister and me, the values that one makes one’s own destiny by hard work, perseverance and merit. My mother was not rich. She did not go to Yale, had no famous mentors, and never made a public name for herself.

Partly because she was blind, she never saw racial or ethnic differences in the people she met and taught us to look at a person’s character rather than their skin color, religion or accent. Through her, I met wonderful, strong women from all ethnic and racial backgrounds. Some were disabled, some were Cuban refugees, some were Holocaust survivors from the local Hadassah who learned Braille and translated her textbooks for her, some were local community activists who sought to counter racial discrimination in disability services for African Americans. None of these women whined or complained about their lives.
...
I am trying to teach my daughter the lessons that my mother taught me. I am trying to teach her to work hard, to persevere against adversity, to look at a person’s character rather than the color of their skin, their accent, their religion, or whether they are rich or poor. When Geraldine Ferraro complains that Hillary Clinton is not achieving success in her campaign to become the Democratic nominee because Barack Obama, as a Black man, has gotten breaks that he doesn’t deserve, Geraldine Ferraro is undermining the lessons that I am trying to teach my daughter.


And following that, a Latino woman with similar feelings:

It reminded me of when I was 17 years old sitting in my AP Calculus class, and a "friend" in "congratulating" me for being accepted into a prestigious undergraduate institution told me how "you’re so lucky that you’re last name is ______." Because of course, to him, my higher test scores and higher GPA were nothing in balance to my Spanish surname. That was supposed to be one of the happiest days of my life, yet I went home and cried to my father. I woke up the next morning with an e-mail from my dad saying, "Yes, you are lucky to be Mexican. Because Mexicans are some of the hardest working people in the world."

There is some good shit on DKos. Even for you grumpy Republicans.

And like here, the real truth is in the comments.

So skewer me, but I want new leadership, that has not been ensconced in DC, to finally break through.

We all need it. A little sanity at the top can only make things better.

timothy said...

Bruce, you and Olbermann should get a room.

Back to Bend. I'm betting the press is getting a bit pissed that we're not impressed with them. That job doesn't pay well, so you want to believe you are loved.

Anonymous said...

Tim,

You said you were once reporter, and you said everything they do has a planned outcome. Cynical, but in the modern sense very true. In Bend absolutely true. The INN@7thMTN story never had a chance, because status quo interests had decided that Pape, Friedman, Johnson, et-all were worth destroying this town to save.

There is much similarity today between our BULL&SORE and the fall of Spitzer. The BULL&SORE are going to fall very hard. The whole international press is now watching Bend, and reading these blogs. This is why you have HBM here covering his "SORE" ass.

I think we all have a good heart. We're sure in the hell not doing this for money, as alluded by Homer's tormentor ( most likely HBM ).

Brucey has a good heart, tim does, homers does, bem, duncan well he has comic-books to sell, even buster cares about Bend on the long term. Marge cares about this place. Anybody thats staying cares.

The reporters now know that most people in Bend know that these blogs are now the rock that all the Bend dogs piss on.

Had the reporters not pimped this town out to the pure sleaze running it today, we could cut them some slack.

I have no pity for any of these reporters feeling sorry for themselves today. They have dug a fucking hole for themselves.

They ought to unionize, and go on strike at the very least, and clean up this town the old fashion way.

Good luck to all.

Hell yes I'm angry, angry for a long time watching Bend get cut to shit by a 1,000 greedy parasites. All with the FULL back of the BULL&SORE. Like the other day I think was a parody by BEM, when he suggested that even the old geezers like HBM loved to see all the young pussy that was now in Bend because of the Bubble in 2004/2005.

Every fucking liberal running this town is/was and has been comprised, and is sadly what will be written on HBM's tombstone. He has a good heart and so does Bob Woodward, ... the rest but they stood idly by and let Bend be destroyed, and now they're denying their part, now that folks are looking to draw&quarter, and tar&feather those that destroyed our Bend.

Anonymous said...

So, you just saying that HBM is a good for nothing freebie?

*

Fisher was a cheap whore, as TIM has pointed out nobody in the news racket makes money.

Unless your like COSTA and have a vested interest in HOLLERN-VILLE.

Then you have HBM, who basically whores ( Lies for the BOSS-HOGGS ) for free. I'm not sure even that is whore-worthy.

I would liken HBM to a Jew who turned in other Jews to the Stazi just for the pure joy of getting to watch them get raped by dogs.

I know this is hard stuff, but I can of no other apt analogy.

Bob Woodward & H Bruce Miller, claim to love Bend, but they have sold this place out to Hollern & Boyz, and covered their ass so long that now, we're just poverty without the view.

Like BEM said last month, even our Bend Liberals got sucked into the young cunt, wine, coke, and tents at Drake Park. Marge has said as well, during the peak of the Bull this town ran on Cocaine.

Now its party over, and somebody has to pay the bill.

Anonymous said...

Doesn't Bruce-Pussy have any other place to post ClitorisH ( Cheney in Drag ) copy??

Isn't this the Bend Bubble?

bruce said...

Re: Back to Bend. I'm betting the press is getting a bit pissed that we're not impressed with them.

Or maybe their advertisers are getting pissed we are not impressed.

jealous said...

Dude, thanks for kissing my ass you fuckin retard.
***

I wanted to kiss his ass, bitch!

LavaBear said...

Fucking Retards writing blogs
Fucking Retards at the Bull
Fucking Retards at the Sore
Fucking Retards opening another high end restaurant downtown
Fucking Retards opening an exclusive circle jerk upstairs
Fucking Retards on both sides at the Inn@7th
Fucking Retards commenting on the retards

Did I miss anyone? What a day.

Anonymous said...

“I’m trying to improve the city and hope that opening the restaurant will make Bend a better place,” Jones said.
***

Whoa big man -- I thought Bend was ALREADY perfect. Isn't that the party-line? Bend is #1 in all things. How can anyone make it better if it's already Aspen-west? Hmmm...

Have another glass of koolaid, Mr. Jones.You obviously aren't drunk enough.

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