Monday, March 10, 2008

Bend Bulletin Reporter FIRED For Not Hyping Bend Bubble?

200+ comments = pagination :-)

Whoa!

If you read here regularly, you know I'm sort of in Chronicling The Bubble mode now, not in Convincer mode anymore. And I do have some interesting stuff this week, but Holy Shit! This was posted over on BendBB, posted by "Bullethead"

Interesting week in The Bulletin's business section. First, The Source comes out with this blurb on Thursday ...

Quote:
TV isn't the only one getting into the act. A little bird told us that a reporter across town, well known for his real estate coverage, walked out when editors insisted that he spin his latest story to emphasize the positive side of the housing slump.
Oh, well, what's one more fairy tale in makebelieveland?

That caused Bulletin Executive Editor John Costa to fan his line editors through the newsroom to assure everyone that said real estate reporter had really been fired for lying about being sick. Which didn't play well with a lot of the staff, because this email had already made the rounds for a couple of days ...

Quote:
Charlene: (Apparently meaning Sharlene Crabtree, the Bulletin's Human Resources Director) Here's my response to the March 4 Separation Notice:

3-4-2008
I did not "lie about being sick." I took two days off after an article I wrote for the Feb. 26 paper was edited by my supervisor, Business Editor John Stearns, in such a way as to remove any facts or opinions that tended to disagree with a public speaker's rosy predictions for the local real estate industry. As I told him, my intent was to carefully consider why that particularly editing job, which I viewed as dishonest, upset me, and to calm down enough to rationally discuss the issue with him.

When I returned, I was not "questioned about the days off" -- I initiated a meeting with Mr. Stearns and told him, without prompting, that I had not been physically ill but needed two "mental health days," in my phrasing, to determine how I should best discuss my future with the paper with him in a calm, rational way, rather than forcing the issue when I was angry and confused.

I told him during that meeting on Feb. 28 that I felt that the editing job on my Feb. 26 story was part of a pattern of editing that included misleading headlines, sources being banned from my coverage, story ideas getting spiked, and odd pre-story cajolling, all of which seemed designed by the executive editor to generate more favorable coverage of the local real estate market than I have thought was best in the two years I have been assigned to cover it for the paper. I further told him that, although I believed that the articles I had written for the paper were as thorough and as accurate as I could make them, the utter hack job that was done on my Feb. 26 story had led me to conclude that the paper was not willing to cover the industry as honestly as it should, given that the housing market -- which is economically important to the paper -- is now in the midst of a steep downturn.

I asked to be shifted to another beat, including others that had been identified by the executive editor as important to the paper's overall coverage, such as the business of medicine, or the banking industry. I told him I felt that I would be allowed to cover those beats "straight," without what I perceived to be the editors' emotional desire to slant coverage of the real estate market.

He denied that the paper's editors intended to color the news and criticized me for taking the days off, rather than confronting him with my concerns immediately. I told him again that I felt that I needed the time to clarify my own thoughts before I attempted to have a discussion with him, but if he felt the days weren't covered by our sick leave or vacation policy, I would be happy to take them as unpaid time off.

Stearns told me on March 3 that he had discussed my request to change beats with the executive editor. I don't know what was discussed in that meeting, but I was fired the next day.

In conclusion, there was no violation of the ethics code. I was quite honest about my reasons for not coming to work for two days, and was, I suspect, fired for stating those reasons to my supervisor.

Thank you for allowing me the opportunity to respond.


According to a quick look at the edit trail in The Bulletin's computer system, apparently what set him off -- finally -- was an edit job on a story on Dana Bratton's pie-in-the-sky real estate "forecast" speech last Monday that scrubbed paraphrases from Bill Valentine and Brooks Resources honchos Kirk Schueler and Mike Hollern, all saying that they think the downturn is going to last a whole lot longer than the April 25 turnaround date that Bratton ladled out to the adoring real estate crowd at The Riverhouse.

That pesky stuff got axed on orders from Costa, who told his business editor to "stick to what was said at the meeting."
Out, too, went a section that pointed out that the ridiculous predictions that Bratton made last year of a quick RE turnaround also -- uh -- kinda failed to pan out.

Which left the good readers of Bend with the vision of Dana Bratton, grand real estate prognosticator, predicting that everything will be hunky-dory by May, contradicted only slightly by those notorious pessimists at the National Association of Realtors, who actually suggested that sales might not turn around until late this year.

Could it be an accident that all of this is happening a week after the Realtors and Builders announced their "Best Time in 20 Years to Buy a House" campaign?

Complete with plans for a good, old-fashioned media blitz?
Journalism at its finest, and right here in River City.

Some later supposition reveals the writer of the piece is David Fisher for the piece titled "
Housing forecast: It’ll only get better ".

If we EVER needed more damning evidence of the WHOREHOUSE EDITORIAL ETHICS of The Bulletin, we need look no further than this, still unconfirmed, story. And if the Bulletin stays true to form, we won't hear ANY of the story from them. And maybe we shouldn't.

My opinion? This thing is dead real. It's either real, or an extremely convincing hoax. The fact that it's addressed to the HR dept, and her name is misspelled... I don't know. Most hoaxers don't throw in little idiosyncratic things like that. Also, it's not addressed to Costa is convincing. This thing just "feels" authentic to me.

We'll know by simply monitoring Bulletin stories, and if we don't see Fisher pieces within a few days, we'll know this is not a vacation.

Maybe this should come as absolutely NO SURPRISE that The Bulletin is a bought & paid for WHORE of local RE interests. Whether this Fisher story is true or not, we KNOW that is true. I think it is true, and that Fisher hit his Popeye Moment, and he had all he can stands, and he can't stands no more.

Every decent person cannot lie without end without turning into some sort of monster, as this picture of Pamela Hulce Andrews clearly shows:
Pamela Hulce Andrews: "Best Buyers Market in 20 Years, My Precious!"

Personally, I am very interested in whether this Fisher piece is true. If anyone has any hard evidence, please feel free to submit it to the UNCENSORED COMMENTS area.

Speaking of Hulce WHOREHOUSE Andrews, and her totally bereft of standards shithole "Business Newspaper" (RE advertising cum bucket), here is her latest sellout statement:

Over in Prineville, where some media has reported that the town is in dyer straights, Real Estate Broker Shauna Zinn predicts that Crook County's recovery will come sooner than what is predicted for Deschutes County. She suggested that that are of the region is in the process of getting to the end of their inventory and renewed interest is already heating up.

The message is clear: buy real estate, buy real estate now. Of course realtors are going to pursue that message, they make a living selling properties. What else would they say? Don't buy just wait and see what happens?


Despite the self serving message, we like it a lot. If we can live through this tight economy with hope and a positive outlook our economy will be, as Bratton says, on the front line of leading this country out of the market decline.


My God.

If your eyes have rolled too far back in your head to continue reading (or living), seek medical attention now.

And Andrews, a dyer is "someone whose job is to dye cloth", OK, it's DIRE STRAITS (straights?). That is some forbiddingly stupid shit.

And Hulce Andrews gives away the farm when she ADMITS that Realtors have a 100% SLANTED view of the market, and that she sees ZERO PROBLEM with using them as her exclusive source for RE news. The Bulletin also uses Realtors with 100% "pie-in-the-sky" outlooks, but they FIRE YOUR ASS for printing anything else. Cascade Business Buttbangers would never fire someone for doing that... they'd never be hired in the first place. Cross the Buttbangers off your list Fisher.

Yes... and our "positive outlook" will be our saving grace in this debacle, according to the eternally deluded Andrews. Maybe she should go to Citicorp in New York and suggest her philosophy on turning things around.

So where is The Only Place You Will Read The Unvarnished Truth About The Local Real Estate Market? Well, I'll let each person answer that for themselves, but rest assured that the Fisher story will never surface in this town in "Established Media". The Powers That Be are still imbibing the Kool-Aid, and they'll FIRE anyone who even thinks we should stop.

Unbelievable.

Another good nugg posted on BendBB was this, by "MST":

As of today: Solds for Feb. all residential types:
69 Sold

315k Median

140 days on the market

1962 med sq ft

1907 active listings

Interesting, so far in March, 17 sold at 260k median.
Sure that will change since the median of pendings is 339k.


So, now I can post a more accurate depiction of Months Inventory:

Months Inventory, Y-axis inverted.

This throttles back inventory to a still mind-numbing 27.3 months. Remember that the RE industry admits that 6 months is "Normal". So draw a horizontal line at 6, and it is easy to see that Dana "He's A Man" Bratton is still attempting to reflate this souffle, despite all facts to the contrary.

And you might think, "Oh no... here comes another rant on CACB plummeting into the single digits.", and you'd be WRONG! Well, OK, maybe you're a little right... cuz that badboy is PLUNGING! $9.78/sh, with a fresh new 52 week low of $9.48. Had to go back 5 YEARS to see the prices we're seeing today:
CACB, 5 years

You can see in a 10 year chart that CACB has vaulted from around $7, to the current $9.78 in the short span of 1 decade. Is it for this BRUTALLY LOW 3.4% annualized return that Patty Moss' ass will be waxed? I doubt it, besides I'm sure if you add in the ridiculously low dividend yield, and reinvest, you'll get something better. But as any Bendite knows... NO ONE here holds ANYTHING A DECADE. Moss will get her ass waxed for the recent 70%+ beating someday...

Anyway... CACB played second fiddle to Clear Choice in the plummet parade this week. CCHN finished out the week with a jaw-dropping 27% PLUNGE on Friday.
CCHN, 3 year chart

WTF? What's going on there? All I know is CCHN is building a masoleum to their greatness just East of their current location, adjacent to an old folks home, a park, and an old, established neighborhood. Why the hell they thought this would be a good location is beyond me.

I don't know.... but I'm wondering if the Street is becoming a little concerned that the single largest asset of this company is now going to be a building that will sit largely empty.

Just goes to show: Almost everyone was swept away by the idea that they should real estate-ize their Bend business, even health insurers. You know the large base of doctors that own this dog were frothing at the mouth to have CCHN build this monstrosity.

More delusional bullshit:

Here's another comical piece that just epitomizes the still deluded state of the RE industry:

An index that has been tracking new home sales since 2005 says its historical data dates as far back as 1830. Winans International has patented a combination of housing studies to provide a continuing data set without the scaling and gapping problems found in other studies, it says.

The index found that from its all-time record of 296,000 set in March of 2007, housing prices have declined -16.8% to its current level of 246,300. That's the worst price decline in U.S. new home prices since the 17-month decline of -17.8% from May 1969 to October 1970, says the index.

It could get worse. The worst decline of U.S. new home prices in the last 100 years was the 55% decline from 1929 to 1932 during the Great Depression.

This is just the latest in predictions from housing prognosticators, who are looking backward not forward.

We all know that housing price predictions are about handicapping stocks, so it's no surprise that investors can only get a sniff of what's happening. To get to the meat, they usually have to buy the full report. So the bottom line is, it's about sales and sales improve in a climate of fear.

If you don't want to pay to be scared, you can look at the National Association of Home Builders' useful Housing Information Center. There you can find essentially the same information for free.

The latest NAHB forecast is for housing sales to drop 22 percent in 2008. Housing is in its "deepest, most rapid downswing since the Great Depression," says David Seiders, chief economist for the NAHB. "More and more of the country is now involved in the contraction, where six months ago it was not as widespread."

That sobering tidbit was just verified by the Federal Reserve Beige Book report in which eight of the twelve Fed regional bank districts reported a "weakening in the pace of business activity."

And the other four reported "subdued, slow or modest growth."

The housing sector isn't going to see improvement any time soon. All 12 districts reported overall drops in home prices, suggesting that the mortgage market flu is airborne. The reason is tight credit, where standards are being set making it harder to obtain a mortgage loan. That's causing sales to slow down even in healthy markets.

However, there are reasons to hope things will get better for sellers and buyers. The Beige Book noted that foot traffic is increasing to homes for sale, as buyers sniff around for bargains.

The national malaise has caused some areas to be undervalued, according to a report by National City Corporation and Global Insight. That report found that 88 percent of 330 housing markets surveyed showed price declines but that translates into improved affordability.

The most overvalued city wasn't in California or Florida, for a change. That dubious honor went to Bend, Oregon, where prices were judged to be overvalued by 59 percent. On the other end of the spectrum, homebuyers can find serious bargains in Louisiana and Texas. Dallas, for example, is undervalued by 30 percent.

So you see -- all the prognostication in the world doesn't matter. It boils down to what's happening in the local marketplace.

Published: March 7, 2008

Funny, that this piece is EXACTLY what local RE types are trying to convince you is TOTALLY FALSE. You see, good old Blanche Evans has a national scope in trying to pump up this debacle, and doesn't give a shit about whomping on Bend, if it helps the other 329 MSA's. That's why the National City report about Bend STILL being the most overvalued city in the US is called a "DUBIOUS HONOR" by Evans.

So now, we have the novel situation where National RE Pump-N-dumpers are totally at odds with local Whackos like Ruben Garmyn:

Ruben Garmyn, the principal broker of Prudential High Desert Realty in Bend, disagreed with the report’s assessment. Garmyn believes most national reports miss the boat on Bend’s economy because they don’t take into consideration the impact on local real estate of a steady influx of retirees and professional workers who choose to live in Bend but commute or telecommute to jobs outside the region.

“Investors and baby boomers and commuters built up the (housing) market, but boomers and commuters are still coming here,” said Garmyn. “Yes, we are going through a downturn, partly driven by the media, but we are showing lots of property to potential buyers.”

Garmyn said his office is seeing more sales activity compared with the last three months.

Hey.... wait a minute. Did he say sales activity is picking up? Damn! Garmyn has discovered a RE trend in Deschutes County that has managed to remain hidden, lo these past 100,000 years:

Real Estate activity in Bend picks up in the Spring!

I stand humbled before mental giants like Garmyn. He should start a consulting firm with insights like that.

Anyway, I find it hilarious that "National RE" has decided to throw "Bend RE" under the bus with this National City report. They are actually saying the Nat City report IS LEGIT, and that LOCAL MARKETS really determine whether a market is overvalued or not, and that some, like Dallas, are really cheap. AND that some, LIKE BEND, are horrendously overvalued.

Bend RE types take on this?

No, no, no, no, no, no! This report, while it may be right for ALL 229 OTHER MSA's in the country, has got Bend ALL WRONG. No, no, no, no. We've got old geezers, 600 golf courses, and these really big hills & stuff. You just can't find that sort of stuff anywhere else!

Now, as for JOBS, and stuff that allows you to actually Live Here... no, we don't have that, but we really don't need it either. Internet & airports take care of that problem, and people using those 2 things accounts for 498% of our workforce.

No, National City has got us all wrong. We're EXEMPT FROM ANALYSIS, cuz we got geezers, spring-loaded coffins that eject corpses straight into the Deschutes River & stuff. Housing prices & the influx of old people has a strong positive correlation, as you can see from Sun City AZ, or any mortuary.

OK, enough whomping the local idiot Realtors. Well, almost.

You know what really bothers me about the local RE Keep Prices Artificially High mentality? It's that They Do Not Care Whether High Prices Keep Normal Working People From EVER BEING ABLE TO AFFORD HOMES HERE OR NOT.

It is just an ingrained human need to own their own home. Hell, it's one of the things that makes this country great. The vast ownership of homes by MILLIONS of Americans is one of the American Quality Of Life components that other countries pine for.

And if you work hard, and save & are of reasonable intelligence, in this Country, you SHOULD BE ABLE to buy your own home.

But local RE does NOT want this to happen. They do not think of a home as the last bastion of human refuge from The World. No. To them it is a WHOREHOUSE. Your home is a WHORE, and They are The Pimps, and they take a cut on each sale, and FUCK YOU & your sentimental homeowner bullshit.

They WANT prices to stay high & UNAFFORDABLE. That is why the Nat City report is being poo-poo'd. They DO NOT give a fuck about the effects of a town full of people who are working their asses off to achieve the American Dream AND ARE FAILING because they do not, and will NEVER make enough money to achieve it.

No, they are Pimps & if the Ho's prices are smacked down, they can't support their fuckin sleazy-ass Escalade. They do not give a fuck about anyone but themselves.

You & your home are WHORES to be bought & sold until you are worn out & useless to them.

You watch: When Bend is a worn out useless fuckin crack whore of a town, the pimps will unceremoniously throw us out of the Escalade & pee in our faces, as they drive away from this place forever.

OK, rant concluded, but seething.... for now.

Mortgage market needs $1 trillion, FBR estimates
Without that, prices of securities will fall, raising interest rates on home loans

The answer is that the mortgage market is short of roughly $1 trillion in capital, according to Paul Miller, an analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey.

The modern mortgage market works with lots of leverage, or borrowed money. Investors, including hedge funds and mortgage real estate investment trusts, buy mortgage securities, but finance a lot of their purchases with this leverage.

FBR's Miller estimates that $11 trillion of outstanding U.S. mortgage debt is supported with roughly $587 billion of equity. That's a leverage ratio of 19 to one.

But last year's subprime meltdown has undermined confidence in the home loans that back these mortgage securities. Now the banks that finance most of these leveraged mortgage investments have started to pull back and impose margin calls, demanding more cash or collateral to back their loans.

This has sparked a de-leveraging cycle in which some highly leveraged mortgage investors have to sell assets to meet margin calls. Forced selling pushes prices lower, sparking more margin calls, which in turn produces more selling and even lower prices.

When debt prices fall, yields rise, and that's what's happening to mortgage securities - even those backed by government sponsored entities including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which are considered the safest.

"The immediate impact is that [interest rates on] 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will have to increase relative to Treasuries," FBR's Miller wrote in a note to clients on Friday. "That is why we are experiencing pressure on mortgage rates despite the downward movement on the 10-year bonds."

Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages usually follow the movement of 10-year Treasury bonds, but this relationship has broken down as de-leveraging in the financial system takes hold.

The difference, or spread, between yields on "agency" mortgage securities backed by Fannie and Freddie and those on Treasuries rose to a 23-year high this week, Miller noted.

"It is the leverage game playing havoc with the system," he wrote.

There are two ways to resolve the problem. Either inject $1 trillion of new capital into the mortgage market, or allow prices of mortgage securities to fall (and interest rates on home loans to climb), Miller said.

The mortgage market won't be able to raise $1 trillion, so prices have to fall, he warned.
"There is no quick fix here," the analyst said. "It will take about six to 12 months for the pricing pressure to alleviate on these mortgage assets."

"This will be painful, but it must be allowed to play out in an orderly fashion in order for the mortgage market to achieve equilibrium," Miller concluded.

Alistair Barr is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.

Yup. That's a Cool TRILLION to bail out this thing. A few months ago, it was a scant few hundred billion. Now they're using The T Word.

Note that they say that the last investment refuge is Govt treasuries. Too bad they can't start denominating these in Euros or Yen. Maybe TIP's are a good idea...

And unless you've been in a cave, you've noticed that the recent jobs data finally convinced the last holdouts that we are actually in a recession:

U.S. payrolls fall by 63,000 in February
Drop in labor force moves jobless rate to 4.8%

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- In the clearest suggestion yet of a recession, U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 63,000 in February, the second straight decline, the Labor Department reported Friday.

"Turn out the lights the party's over," wrote Joseph Brusuelas, U.S. chief economist for IDEAglobal. "We are in a recession."

It was the largest drop in payrolls since March 2003, when the economy was struggling through a jobless recovery.

The drop in payrolls was largely unexpected; economists were looking for a tepid gain of about 20,000 in the survey of business establishments. See Economic Calendar.

U.S. stock markets opened lower after the report, while bonds rose. See Market Snapshot.

Futures markets were pricing in an almost 100% chance of a three-quarters of a point cut in the federal funds target interest rate to 2.25%.

In addition to February's dismal result, payrolls for December and January were revised down by 46,000. Read the full report.

The unemployment rate fell unexpectedly to 4.8% in February from 4.9%, but the decline didn't reflect strength in the jobs market, but rather was due to a 450,000 decline in the labor force, the largest drop in nearly five years.

'The data suggest that laid-off workers are discouraged and are giving up the job hunt for now," wrote Stephen Gallagher, U.S. economist for Societe Generale.

Economists were expecting the jobless rate to climb to 5%.

According to the separate survey of households used to derive the jobless rate, employment fell by 255,000 in February. The labor participation rate fell to 65.9% from 66.1% in January. The employment rate fell to 62.7% from 62.9% and a peak of 63.4% in late 2006.

The job loss in January was revised to 22,000 from 17,000. In December, 41,000 net jobs were created, half the number estimated a month ago. Payrolls have declined by an average of 28,000 over the past three months, down from a gain of 80,000 or so a year ago.

Wage rise weak

Average hourly earnings rose 5 cents, or 0.3%, to $17.80 an hour. Average earnings have increased 3.7% over the past 12 months, less than the inflation rate.

Hiring was weak in most sectors in February. Private-sector payrolls fell by 101,000. Of 274 industries, 45.6% were adding jobs in February, the lowest percentage since August 2003. Of 84 manufacturing industries, 31% were hiring.

Manufacturing payrolls fell by 52,000, the most in five years. Construction jobs dropped by 39,000. Private services jobs dropped by 12,000, including 34,000 in retail, 12,000 in financial services, and 28,000 in temporary help services.

Job gains were restricted to government (up 38,000), health and education (up 30,000) and hospitality (up 21,000).

Total hours worked fell by 0.1%.

The weak report will likely add the chorus calling for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee will meet on March 18, but speculation is growing that the FOMC could lower rates before then to address the extremely dysfunctional credit markets, where even AAA securities are being sold off to raise cash.

On Friday, the Fed announced steps to provide more liquidity to markets. The regular auction of short-term funds will be boosted by $40 billion, and the Fed said it would lend an additional $100 billion with agency mortgage-backed securities as collateral. End of Story
Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.

Yup, it's finally hitting Main Street. If you've been fired recently, remember to Thank your local banker, mortgage broker, and realtor. The housing bust is 100% responsible for The Beating We Are About To Receive.

As another aside, on the Placement Of Ultimate Responsibility For The Economic Pounding We Are Going To Endure, I would like to say that I do not blame Realtors, primarily. No. That honor goes to the financiers of this thing.

It's like a frat party. The people who Get The Party started are ultimately the people who made the Excesses possible. Sure, there were people who just happened across the party, wandered in, got drunk as hell & ended up killing themselves plowing into a tree, and they are fully responsible for their own demise (speculators, Realtors).

But without the origination of the party & the various required staples for getting it rolling: Numerous kegs, a place to party, and marketing far & wide, it never would have gotten rolling. THIS is the fault of the Money Men. They WANTED this to happen, and they made all the arrangements for it to happen. I blame them 50.1%

I blame the Rest, the speculators, transactors, associations, media and the rest collectively 49.9%. If you hopped into this party with the expressed purpose of Living It Up, and buying RE at inflated prices far beyond your own needs... well, then you deserve everything you get.

Just my 2 cents.

More banking nightmares:

Banks face "systemic margin call," $325 billion hit: JPM

By Walden SiewSat Mar 8, 9:24 AM ET

Wall Street banks are facing a "systemic margin call" that may deplete banks of $325 billion of capital due to deteriorating subprime U.S. mortgages, JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), said in a report late on Friday.

JPMorgan, which sent a default notice to Thornburg Mortgage Inc. (TMA.N) after the lender missed a $28 million margin call, said more default notices and margin calls were likely. The Carlyle Group's mortgage fund also failed to meet $37 million in margin calls this week.

"A systemic credit crunch is underway, driven primarily by bank writedowns for subprime mortgages," according to the report co-authored by analyst Christopher Flanagan. "We would characterize this situation as a systemic margin call."

The credit crisis that began about a year ago will likely intensify after Friday's weak February U.S. employment report "that most definitely signals recession," JPMorgan said.

Indeed, corporate bond spreads widened to a new record on Friday, surpassing levels seen in October 2002 during a boom in bankruptcies following the dot-com crash. U.S. employers cut payrolls in February for a second consecutive month, slashing 63,000 jobs, the biggest monthly job decline in nearly five years, the U.S. Labor Department reported on Friday.

"The weak February employment report points to an economy in recession," JPMorgan said.

The JPMorgan report included a revised bleaker forecast for subprime-related home prices. The bank now sees prices falling 30 percent, from its prior 25 percent forecast. Those prices have declined 14 percent since mid-2006, JPMorgan said.

The U.S. jobs results also came after the Federal Reserve expanded the amount of its short-term auctions to $100 billion in total in the central bank's latest effort to ease credit concerns. Ongoing concerns about bond insurers, known as monolines, and their effort to save their top ratings also are weighing on market sentiment.

Yup, banking is starting to UNRAVEL. Why? Well, the Why is clear, and almost dictated the title of this weeks post, "How To Be 100% Debt Free GUARANTEED, if your read this post".

What's the secret? What's this financial miracle? Can it be The Real Financial Holy Grail?

Yes. Yes, it can. And it's only 4 words long. Here it is:

Walk Away, Don't Pay.

Bang, problem solved.

Step 1, Walk Away. If you own a financially "impeded" asset, WALK AWAY. Fuck them. Who's "them"? Right, that's the fuckers who held the party, The Financiers. They gave you the tools to pay too much, and NOW is the time that it is clear that NEITHER of you should have engaged in the transaction, BUT THEY ULTIMATELY ACCEPTED FINANCIAL RESPONSIBILITY for the downside.

Well, it's here. So walk.

Step 2) Don't Pay. You know all those UNSECURED debts you have, ie CREDIT CARDS? Don't Pay. Again, Problem Solved. Fuck them. They sent you junk mail 24/7 for 20 years, BEGGING to be impaled on a Minsky Moment Skewer. Let it happen. Don't Pay.

As I said, this problem NEEDED financier help to get started. Without them, NO PARTY. Speculators might be slimy worm leaches, but they had nothing without the willing lenders to make it happen. Fuck Them All, But Fuck The Bankers The Hardest. Even Helicopter Bend thinks people will Walk Away, and NOT PAY:

Unless bankers act quickly, Bernanke warned, a large number of homeowners could walk away from their mortgage debt, reversing the historical pattern of people hanging onto their homes at almost all costs.

The Fed chief's comments were bolstered by a report by Moody's Economy.com that said nearly 9 million homeowners -- or about one in every 10 -- will either have no equity in their homes by the end of this month, or will have mortgage balances that exceed what their homes are worth.

Walk Away, Don't Pay is simply the Abandonment Of Financial Responsibility in this country. It's Instant De-Leveraging. Lemme tell you now: The Effects of This, will be around beyond the end of our lifetimes.

So how bad is it now? Welp, gotta go back to the Big D... and I don't mean Dallas:

Rapid deterioration
Housing in deepest decline since the Great Depression, economist says

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Housing is in its "deepest, most rapid downswing since the Great Depression," the chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders said Tuesday, and the downward momentum on housing prices appears to be accelerating.

The NAHB's latest forecast calls for new-home sales to drop 22% this year, bringing sales 55% under the peak reached in late 2005. Housing starts are predicted to tumble 31% in 2008, putting starts 60% off their high of three years ago.

"More and more of the country is now involved in the contraction, where six months ago it was not as widespread," said David Seiders, the NAHB's chief economist, on a conference call with reporters. "Housing is in a major contraction mode and will be another major, heavy weight on the economy in the first quarter."

A home-sales measure tracked by the association that includes data on cancellations from 30 large U.S. builders that account for one-quarter of all sales shows sales down 65% from their peak in 2005, Seiders said. Government measures of home sales do not include numbers from contracts that were signed but buyers later backed out.

Vacant homes for sale in the U.S. now number about 2 million, Seiders said, an increase of 800,000 from 2005. That inventory overhang is bedeviling builders, who have been forced to cut prices and write down the value of their holdings. Read more on the builders' plight.

"Weak demand and oversupply naturally put downward pressure on prices," Seiders said.
Citing the Case-Shiller index, Seiders noted that home prices nationally have fallen nearly 10% from their peak in early 2006 and that prices were declining at a 19% annual rate in the fourth quarter. "The downward momentum was building at the end of the year," he said. Read the latest Case-Shiller numbers.

Home sales may bottom out later this year, Seiders predicted, but housing starts are not likely to rebound until 2009. Housing, which took 1.25 percentage points off GDP in the fourth quarter, looks like it will continue to be a major drag on gross domestic product at least through the end of 2008, he said. End of Story
Steve Kerch is assistant managing editor and personal finance editor of MarketWatch in Chicago.

Yeah. WORST HOUSING MARKET SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION. You shouldn't really believe that National City report. I'm SURE as the MOST OVERVALUED MARKET IN THE WORST HOUSING MARKET SINCE THE GREAT FUCKING DEPRESSION, that we'll be just fine.

It's hitting the fan, folks. But NOWHERE, and I mean NOWHERE else in the country are you finding more people FRANTICALLY attempting to keep the plates spinning.

Reporters are getting fired for not playing ball. Home associations are OVERTLY trying to FLOOD local media outlets with PR to get national newswire bad news OFF the front page. Every muscle of the local RE behemoth is straining to the breaking point to keep alive a party that the financiers closed 6 months ago. OK guys... the party is OVER. Time to go home. Time to get real.

But no. They will not. They still have hangers on, like Cascade Business Buttbangers who are telling them that National City is wrong, The Sun WILL Come Out Tomorrow, and all sorts of other nonsense that simply prolongs the pain.

Manipulate the media ALL YOU WANT, but this debacle will NEVER RE-FLATE. EVER.

304 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 304 of 304   Newer›   Newest»
Anonymous said...

Brucey, its hard to get away from the Obama,hilly,cain shit, can we not do it here? Can this one place be sacred? Please.

Anonymous said...

We just lost everyone forever. The retards are too fucking dumb to realize that 200 is Homers magic number. Now they have to know what oldest, older, and newest means.

The Bend Bubble is Over.

Anonymous said...

Can this one place be sacred? Please.

*

No.

*

The GOP, McCain & the Economy
Posted By:Larry Kudlow
Topics:Inflation | Recession | Currencies | Economy (U.S.) | Republicans | Presidential Politics (2008) | John McCain | Your Money Your Vote | Politics & Government | Stock Market

Recession or not, the economy is definitely in a significant slowdown. This poses a daunting challenge for the Republican Party. Not only could it make Senator McCain’s election tougher, but it’s going to affect House and Senate races as well.

The litany of economic woes continue to mount: falling jobs, decimated housing, the subprime credit virus, record gasoline prices (almost $3.20), $107 oil, a slumping dollar, and the march toward $1000 gold. Now I don’t to want create a pessimism bubble here, but standard-bearer McCain must come up with a strong, pro-growth message that has a significant reform element.

Take a look at the accompanying charts from the bond market. Inflation fears are rising, while real interest rates have fallen below zero. Prices are going up, and the economy’s going down.

This is one reason why my idea of a McCain dollar could be very important. A stronger greenback would reduce inflation. Cutting corporate taxes, as well as reforming the entire tax code, might also help. Spending restraint and earmark reform could work as well.

But the real eye-opener -- a topic no one has tackled on the campaign trail, at the White House, or in Congress -- would be the McCain dollar. Just as in President Reagan’s first term, and Bill Clinton’s second term, a strong U.S. dollar would bring down the cost of food and energy. It would also bolster real worker wages and family income purchasing power.

Right now, a simple gold/inflation forecasting model is predicting 5.7 percent CPI this year and 7.4 percent next year. This, after 4 percent in 2007. Yikes! The GOP has its work cut out for it.

Anonymous said...

I can't wait for a retard to say it.....

Come, you tard, you know you wanna say it.....











Yeah, you can't contain yourself, you just gotta say it...........








Ahhhh


Ahhhhhh


Ahhhhhhhhhhh have to say, I can't contain myself:


IT'S ALLL BUSH'S FAULT!!!!!

W DID IT!


Ahhhh, I do feel better now.

Anonymous said...

Timmy,

Can you bring back order to this blog??


Hell its wednesday, surprising it even went this long before the retards got bored with the bend-bubble, and took us back to the whose dick is bigger? McCains, Hillarys', or Obama?

Bruce-Pussy they say once you go black, you don't go back.

Anonymous said...

Hillary has the biggest MAN dick ever come out of a women.





That is why Billy is always carousing. His peepee shrinks up just thinking bout Hillary's MAN dick.

tim said...

No, you guys get it out of your system. You're on a roll. Do an all-night beer & politics fest. Go for it.

Anonymous said...

FYI do you know how the Governor of NY got tripped up? Spitzer was caught by searches for terrorists. Big brother is here!!

*

Here's one for you brucey-pussy, as you like DUMBYA. Rayguns Poindexter setup 'total information awareness' (TIA) during DUMBYA's term, Poindexter has PHD in physics, and a great guy. Obsessed with computers and databases, that track all spending, banking, and activity. On all citizens thus its called TIA.
Under TIA (NSA program) all high-end whores are eavesdropped on the common knowledge that Arabs like to have a little high-end pussy before the shit hits the fan. Thus Spitzer was picked up under this domestic spying program, under the guise of International Terrorism.

It should now be interesting, given that TIA brought down one of the most powerful people in the country, if you'll see more demand for less total domestic spying.

Anonymous said...

It should now be interesting, given that TIA brought down one of the most powerful people in the country, if you'll see more demand for less total domestic spying.

*

Gay Edgar Hoover used to do this stuff all the time, knock-out politicians he didn't like.

DUMBYA don't like Hilly, and Spitzer was going to be her AG, so says the street, do they took him out. Expect something like this on Obama in time.

The full fruit of Domestic Spying is now paying dividends, and forever insuring Republican Control of our little insolvent banana republic.

Poindexter is running TIA, and he is now the Gay Edgar Hoover, and he'll most likely die running this program, just like Gay Edgar Hoover held his office for 50+ years.

Rumor is every hotel in Washington, DC is wired. There's a million cameras operational in London, soon to be this way in all major US city's. TIA is going to generate some great stuff.

Bewert said...

This mornings dose of reality from Bloomberg. This is so suckful I'm just cutting and pasting the Breaking News headlines:

Dollar Falls Below 100 Yen as Carlyle Bond Fund Moves Closer to Collapse

Carlyle Capital Fails to Reach Accord; Lenders to `Promptly' Seize Assets

Retail Sales in U.S. Unexpectedly Decline on Energy Prices, Jobs Concern

U.S. Stock Futures Drop on Carlyle, Retail Sales; Europe, Asia Shares Fall

Gold Rises to $1,000 For First Time on Demand for Haven From Weaker Dollar


...

And in other news, via The Oil Drum:

Oil prices set record high 110.70 dollars a barrel

LONDON (AFP) - Oil prices forged a record high 110.70 dollars per barrel on Thursday, driven by investment demand to hedge against the weak US dollar and higher inflation, traders said.
New York's main oil contract, light sweet crude for delivery in April, marched towards 111 dollars per barrel to beat the previous peak of 110.20 that was set on Wednesday.

Brent North Sea crude for April hit a fresh record pinnacle at 106.80 dollars per barrel. That topped the 106.45 touched on Wednesday.


This is really starting to look like the perfect storm. Any guesses on what could go even worse?

Bewert said...

Re: Bruce-Pussy they say once you go black, you don't go back.

I did. Orientals and Latinos are sweet, too. But I ended up back with a nice blonde American girl. Of course, it took me 37 years to get there...and now we're in our second decade together. Don't know if I would have made it that long if I had gotten married at 22.

BTW, great taglines back there. I love a little laughter in the morning.

And on that FUCKING STUPID article on the FUCKING MCCAIN DOLLAR: it seemed to forget or ignore one oh-so-important fact: by far the biggest cause of our fiscal decline is not fucking earmarks or anything domestic, it's a stupid fucking illegal war that we are FUCKING SPENDING $12 FUCKING BILLION DOLLARS PER MONTH ON, and it's FUCKING BORROWED FROM CHINA AND THE FUCKING OIL RICH ARABS!

And since John BIG DICK McCain is willing to stay in Iraq for as long as it fucking takes to FUCKING BANKRUPT AMERICA the FUCKING MCCAIN DOLLAR HAS NOWHERE TO GO BUT DOWN.

STUPID FUCKING IDIOTS.

Goddamn this bullshit pisses me off sometimes.

Bewert said...

And on TIA--I agree completely. I wrote this piece dissecting the abilities of the equipment in an AT&T switching room in San Francisco. Since that news, the FBI has a DS3 line right to Verizon's core network, able to monitor all voice, text messaging, etc.

Who do you think Spitzer used for cell service?

If you want to have an idea about how dirty BushCo's Republicans play, just follow the story of Don Seigelman in Alabama. It took a few tries, but they got him in the end. You really think that a little vote manipulation is a moral problem for them?

tim said...

Bruce, just stop it. You're just trying to blame one hypocrite for another getting caught.

Spitzer got caught by the same tools he used to catch other participants in prostitution rings. The story here is hypocrisy. Just as it is on the other side.

Bruce, to me you're the same as the zealots on the other side. And Olbermann sickens me as much as O'Reilly. All you zealots are THE SAME to me.

So shut the fuck up and take it to KOS. You're boring me. You're as bad as the other guys. Fine, promote you winners, but don't defend your assholes. It's unseemly and too fucking reflexive. Do what you would want your enemies to do--blame the dude that did the wrong thing.

Anonymous said...

PRESIDENTIAL POLL FOR BB2 READERS

Who will you vote for?

[ ] John McCain
[ ] Hillary Clinton
[ ] Barack O'Bama
[ ] Geraldine Ferraro
[ ] Keith Olbermann
[ ] Buttster

Send your ballot to: bb2poll@gmail.com

Bewert said...

I wasn't defending Spitzer, I agree he got busted for being a stupid hypocrite. I was just pointing out that Dems seem to get busted and Repubs seem to get pardoned.

But then, truth be told, it probably would be the other way around given different circumstances.

The difference between O'Reilly and Olbermann is simple: O'Reilly doesn't tell the truth and Olberman does. And he also labels his editorial as such.

I thought reality was one of our core concepts around here.

Anonymous said...

A fucking political election poll on a Bend RE Bust Blog?

Lost. Total. Control.

And the brucey-pussey and his "ALL BUSH FAULT" for Spitzer, ya know, it could be true!!

If Spitzer's wife did not have that unshaved Bush, maybe he would not have been looking at the high priced Brazilian pussey? Nahhh.

Anonymous said...

"The difference between O'Reilly and Olbermann is simple: O'Reilly doesn't tell the truth and Olberman does. And he also labels his editorial as such."
================


BWWWAAAAA HAAA HAAAAA

Best. Stupid. Line. Ever.

Yep, Bill O'Reilly lies.
Yep, Olberman speaks the trueth.
Well, how about speaks 'truthiness'.

Nah, how about Olberman speaks a bit more 'truthiness' than O'Reilly, but not as much 'truthiness' as Rather used to blather.

Oh, I got it. The both are blabber mouth blowhards that say whatever shit they want to say, as long as it get's lots of conservative listeners (O'Reilly) and liberal listeners (Olberman) to pay the advertizers.

Give it a rest, brucey-pussey!

tim said...

Can we maybe talk about BBQ again?

Anonymous said...

Baby 'bend' Jeebus loves me this I know, because Bill O'Reilly tells me So.

Anonymous said...

Bruce PUSSy for Bend Mayor,

"No worse than Freidman"

Anonymous said...

Re: Bruce-Pussy they say once you go black, you don't go back.

I did. Orientals and Latinos are sweet, too.

*

I was thinking of a big black cock, but Bruce Pussy, he been around the wheel too many times.

Anonymous said...

Gawd Buster, give the pervert angle a rest PULEASE! It's as bad as Bruce's political rants.

Anonymous said...

and it really lowers your credibility frankly.

Quimby said...

Hundreds seeking housing money overwhelm Boca Authority

They are ANGRY and want their entitlement, just like the bankers got.

tim said...

My favorite local business...

http://www.rockymountainproduct.com/

Tasty and healthy.

You can get their stuff at Ray's. Do this if you don't make your own.

Anonymous said...

PRESIDENTIAL POLL FOR BB2 READERS

And here are the results

1. Buttster -- 7,582,993 votes (all from same IP address!)
2. Barack O'Bama -- 1,829,434 votes ("Vote Irish 2008")
3. John McCain -- 511,836 votes ("That old Beach Boys song, Bomb Iran")
4. Hillary Clinton -- 2 votes ("Character doesn't matter" Bill Clinton)
5. Keith Olbermann -- 1 vote ("Truthiness")
6. Geraldine Ferraro -- 0 votes ("What race card?")

Anonymous said...

and it really lowers your credibility frankly.

*

Now what in the fucking hell does that supposed to mean? Were already sill plate around around, how can one get any lower credibility than being part of this scene?

I have worked long and hard to the have the lowest credibility, who has lower? Who?

Someone is taking themselves way to fucking serious.

Quimby said...

Everyone likes to glad-hand around here but we always get our nuts busted for going "off-topic of the Bend Bubble". Some of your shit is off-topic Buster. Take your lumps.

Quimby said...

pardon me while I slip into this flame-proof suit.....

tim said...

Perhaps our work here is done. Everyone knows Bend is screwed. ICantBelieveItsNotButter has switched from convincing mode to documenting mode. The desperation of the Realtors and Builders is probably more effective in repelling buyers than attracting them.

Except for telling the city to stop spending our damned money, what are we doing here?

If it's down to political porn (and worse--the discussion of flavors of political porn), color this registered (I), who is disenfranchised from voting in Oregon's primaries, out-to-lunch until November.

Anonymous said...

Here is a case that makes you kind of feel for the people:

$520000 for 3 acres with a 1977 farm house in Tumalo.

"We are moving out of the area and need to sell this home. We cannot come off the price as it is what we owe on our home."

http://bend.craigslist.org/rfs/604602853.html

Anonymous said...

It's not just any old farm house, it's a "remolded farm house", so I reckon the mold is included in the price!

Anonymous said...

The blame-game is over, its now rested that the entire sub-prime fiasco is Carters fault, so says patrick.net.

Thus the Bend Bubble is Carters fault as well, and now the 'best in 20' wound can be healed.

***

The subprime mortgage collapse is another tale of unintended consequences.

The crisis has its roots in the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977, a
Carter-era law that purported to prevent "redlining" - denying mortgages to
black borrowers - by pressuring banks to make home loans in "low- and
moderate-income neighborhoods."

Anonymous said...

HAA HAA HAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

It's all Bush's fault has morphed into It's All CARTER'S FAULT.

That is good.

Maybe Carter can blame that rabid bunny that almost assassinated our President. Anybody remember the story about how Jimmy single handedly defended himself against a killer rabbit?

Anonymous said...

Perhaps our work here is done. Everyone knows Bend is screwed. ICantBelieveItsNotButter has switched from convincing mode to documenting mode.

*

Yep, but this was tossed to Homer over six months ago and he said his work is not done. Hell even BEM is back, for some twisted reason.

Documenting the bubble is now more important than ever.

I have tried a 1,000 times to people to focus on how we might 'improve' Bend, but that is impossible.

The basic issue is what we might call the Homer Curve. On sunday with the fresh blog, and like this past sunday with the BULL story everyone is full of piss & vinegar, and then by tuesday its same old, and then by wednesday its bruce's pussy, and then by thursday its everyones pussy.

Trouble is its always been this way around here, so then the question is why are so many still around??

Hell even Ned Flanders aka Dunc is talking about tylenol screw-caps now. There must be a law on Homers-Curve that says the better the blogger-fodder on sunday, the worse the inane dribble on Wednesday, then its always pussy this, and that by friday, and then sat/sun the cycle repeats itself with a new fresh voice.

Once in awhile things are interesting. I do notice that when Bruce or whomever comes out hard and blames the Republicans for the mess a lot of folks come out of the woodwork with the insults, and the whole debate goes down quite quickly.

I myself have said many times here that this all happened on DUMBYA's guard, and theres a whole lot of people here that just can't handle the truth. Like today, blaming Carter, now thats a safe bet, and the Redlining to Boot, thats a real Obama tossed in. Like Bend, we all know that racial re-redlining back in the 1970's is what caused the 2004 BendBubble.

I see the frustration here as a wave, you have more newbies than normal because of Fisher. Yet, you have Bruce hammering away at Republican policy.

One thing I like about this blog, is that its mostly conservative which is refreshing as most of these RE blogs are a bunch of liberals living with their mother bitching and moaning. Yet, this blog is a bunch of conservatives living with their mother bitching and moaning.

Strange folk on this blog, most renters, and mostly guys, white guys. So long as we bash the liberal government in Bend everything is fine. But holy shit when we start hitting the republicans, that even gets TIMMY's dander up.

Homer should have killed this blog a long time ago, he didn't, it is quite interesting with the wide group of people all intelligent, and fairly well informed on Bend RE.

The only noticeable problem here is all us dogs come by this rock for the morning sniff, but most just can't help but to leave a little piss. Later in the week there is never anything to say, lately the government has been releasing the best news on the weekend.

All along I have noticed here that when their is NO blogger-fodder ( No BULL to bash ), that the debate becomes adolescent. Yet, its always been this way. It will always be this way until Homer shuts it down.

Anonymous said...

. ICantBelieveItsNotButter has switched from convincing mode to documenting mode.

*

It's NOT butter, its BEND.

Bend is better than Butter.

Best in 20 years.

When BEM quit, the convincing was long over, nobody will ever know why Homer wastes his one-hour+ precious time every sat-or-sunday, but he does, It's going to get harder.

It's going to get uglier, It's going to get very bad.

This group has always made potty funny talk of the mess, but in the old days it was an abstraction, soon their will be daily suicides, and folks will not think it so funny.

Humor was good for the BULL and will be good for the BUST, if you can't handle our fucking humor then bail.

It's all in good fun, with a large dose of truth.

The truth must be told, there must be a rock somewhere in Bend, where people can anonymously say what they think without being censored. BB2 is that rock, this is a good thing. With all the press, TV, radio, all spewing the same corporate message, why can't their be places like this?? Almost like old geezers bars or smoking shops, pre political correctness, when anything was ok.

Lots of talk from our Liberal's in Bend, OUR SORE, and its HBM but post anything true, and they'll delete same with BENDBB. People may not like BB2, but you have to admit we're a tolerant group, and nothing here ever shocks anyone, well nothing here ever shocks me.

Thats what makes it so interesting, this is the one little rock in town you can go to, and always be surprised. In the corporate Bend REHO world there are NO surprises only BEND-BULL 24/7, 'best in 20'.

Anonymous said...

From the Emerald City (seattle bubble) courtesy mortgage guy.


Posted by S-Crow on March 12th, 2008 at 7:36 PM · 35 Comments
I’ve got so many topics to talk about but very little time. I have to start somewhere.

Just months ago it was not uncommon (understatement) to see 100% financed nothing down purchase transactions with various ARM’s tied to LIBOR or other indices coupled with hefty pre-payment penalties, interest-only hybrids with no escrow impounds for taxes or some other mortgage product. I’m not talking about other communities in other States. I’m talking about right here in the land of Microsoft, Boeing, T-Mobile, Fred Hutch, UW, Costco, Navy, Zillow, Zymogenetics, Google, Amazon, Starbucks, Safeco, Zumiez, PACCAR, Weyerhauser and a myriad of other companies scattered up and down I-5, I-405 and beyond. To be sure, our escrow company was not ordained by the Dept. of Financial Institutions as the “only” place to close these transactions. We are small. The title companies closed thousands of these loans all across the country. Tens of thousands.

Today, March 12th, 2008, the loan packages are so different. For one, they are much smaller in size. They are not littered with ARM Riders, Balloon Riders, Pre-Payment Penalty Riders or 2nd’s/HELOC’s and many other forms that made files so thick. I’m not calling Costco as often to order more business checks that would be allocated for paying off consumer credit cards (Pottery Barn, Nordstrom, Visa, MC, Toyota, GM, Ford Credit, Home Depot, etc…). And the FICO scores are much more improved than before.

Today’s lending environment is what sustains stable markets. It is what keeps people in houses rather than turning them back into renters again. Stable markets are where the conversation with real estate professionals is centered around employment, communities, schools, jobs vs. centered around making a killing flipping houses or it is a no lose proposition as an “investment.” Stable markets are one in which hard working staff in mortgage lending, title, escrow, or related fields such as construction trades etc.. are not looking for new jobs or not walking up to their desk on a Monday morning looking at all their belongings in a box placed on their desk.

A Remarkable Period In Time

I think a lot more people are starting to “tune-in” to what is happening in the housing market and, moreso, the developing story (s) in the credit markets. Over the past five to six weeks, I’ve been all over the Puget Sound region assisting our clients. From Bellingham to Puyallup to those living in condo’s in downtown Seattle and communities in the Eastside. Housing and more specifically the health of the local housing market is on the mind, front and center. No longer is the client sitting across from me talking about the kitchen remodel or trip to visit relatives or making money in real estate. It is “what are you seeing in the market,” “is my interest rate good,” “do you think rates are going higher?” etc… No longer is the conversation couched around “making money on this property,” or “equity.”

I honestly don’t think we can call this market, either across the country or locally, a “changing” market anymore. It has materially “changed.”

From Bloomberg:

“Fannie Mae said it would generally require down payments of at least 20 percent on such adjustable-rate mortgages for home purchases by borrowers with credit scores above 700, out of a possible 850. Freddie Mac said that it would allow such ARMs with 10 percent down. Freddie Mac will require at least 25 percent down payments of borrowers with credit scores between 660 and 700, while Fannie Mae is requiring only 20 percent down.”

Further, Fannie Mae’s CEO Richard Syron, had a blunt assessment of the market and the agency’s role:

“It’s “perverse” that Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the two biggest providers of money for U.S. home loans, have been encouraged “to put people into homes that they end up losing,”…..

Courtesy of The Big Picture Blog, Fannie Mae’s Syron also remarks that the market price drops “are only 1/3 done” among more dire analysis.

From Calculated Risk:

JP Morgan Chase…sorry Nevada, 65%CLTV max. Wow.

tim said...

If we get a conservative version of Bruce here who tells us how great O'Reilly is and to go read the comments at Free Republic, I'll rip his head off, too. Bruce is identifiable and repetitive. The conservatives usually just come in and make idiotic and lame pot shots and then run away.

tim said...

What I hate about the conforming loan fiasco is that it's a ratchet.

Prices going up? Raise the conforming loan limit. Prices going down? Raise the conforming loan limit. Under what circumstances does it get lowered?

Anonymous said...

Historically speaking our Current Depression may make the last one look mild. Get ready for a ride, have lots silver & gold buried in your yard.

***

This market is going down fast.

During the first 5 months of this bear market the Dow has gone down an average of 2.88% per month (as a percentage of the peak).

In the first 5 months of the 2000-2002 bear market the Dow had averaged 1.78% per month on the way down (as a percentage of the peak). And remember the NASDAQ was falling off a cliff and valuations were much, much richer accross the board than what they are today. The Dow finally finished down 40%.

The 1929-1932 bear market averaged 2.84% per month (as a percentage of the peak) over its duration and finished down 91%.

Anonymous said...

Prices going up? Raise the conforming loan limit. Prices going down? Raise the conforming loan limit. Under what circumstances does it get lowered?

*

Yes & No, I think your seeing a few flakes demand that places like Bend raise the Jumbo-Dumbo cap from $420k to say $600k, but in the meantime over-valued markets like Bend are seeing their LTV requirements go from 5% to 35%, so its a mute point.

Sure in theory some DILDO can REFI his $600k Bend crap-shack, but in reality, he has to have 35% equity, and there is the crux, you just knocked out 95%.

Time will clean this mess up, above I posted the depression stat's, we need to go back and see if there were caps, once stuff went down 90% ( RE INCLUDED ), it wouldn't make much sense to have 10X caps.

I think in the long term this problem is self correcting, and we do have these long-term inflationary trends that made $500 in 1920 for a car, and then $5k, and now $50k a mute point, the fact is the dollar is dropping like a rock, and thus what does it mean to have a JUMBO cap for $600k, for instance $600k in San-Jose will get you an outhouse.

I agree its a 'rachet', but that is more a problem of our mercantile economy that favors debtors, so they can pay back worthless money later, and its always been this way. For too long.

Some 'experts' are saying we're now entering a new era of de-inflation, or less-inflation, I can see that but its still going to be positive.

The fact is the current economic engineering ( low interest rates ) is designed to drive the dollar down and make it easier in the future to pay off all this debt.

In twenty years we'll probably be paying $500k for a new car, and not blinking an eye, that car will be a cocoon, and probably fly, and run on solar/water, ... and obviously fewer and fewer will have those cars.

In response the rachet, I say just look at cars, it seems to be 10X every few generations. A nice car today is $50k ( or more ), it wasn't that long ago that $5k got you a nice car, and when they came out $500 got you a model-t.

We're RACHET up, I think this has more to do with the Decline-of-the-West read ( The Decline of the West (German: Der Untergang des Abendlandes) is a two-volume work by Oswald Spengler ), great book that describes how ALL western economy's debase their currency and collapse. It's inevitable, as even now, with DUMBYA's debt, we have to do this always printing more cheap dollars, always creating bigger & bigger bubbles, until it all becomes worthless.

It used to take an average of 500 years, who knows how long the USA has, maybe fifty?? Grabbing all the world resources ( IRAQ, IRAN ) is a good move, the USA could be operational another hundred or more, long after all of are dead.

I doubt very much we'll see a demise of the USA. First of all we're a young country, and we have the worlds largest coal reserves, and that bubble hasn't even started yet, this country is well planned, and all that debt we pay back to china will be in worthless dollars.

I'm sure we'll have $2M homes in twenty years just like Italy, or other EU places where the young have to wait for their parents to die to get a house.

Japan is a poor example being a conquered managed colony of the USA. The US will continue to manufacture bubbles, and control the world.

In twenty years a jumbo cap will be $2M.

Quimby said...

>> The only noticeable problem here is all us dogs come by this rock for the morning sniff, but most just can't help but to leave a little piss. Later in the week there is never anything to say, lately the government has been releasing the best news on the weekend.

*

ROTFLMA! Buster, it is this sort of funny shit that keeps dogs like me sniffing this rock. The constant ultra-base potty talk I could take or leave. Ain't gonna keep me from reading though. I'm a relative newcomer here (Aug 07) but it has been a very good time. Wasn't it Duncan that said that for as brilliant as some of your insights are, it is unfortunate that we have to wade through so much shit to get to it. But, I guess its what makes Buster....well....Buster.

Bewert said...

I seem to have riled things up.

That's good.

Think, mF's. Ground truth must be shared, and the rest of the ranting nonsense is just to be enjoyed and cataloged if relevant.

And we seem to have more than a few thinkers around here. It's what keeps me coming back. (smiley face)

Quimby said...

Must View Thread:

So Cal Housing Market
http://bendeconomy.informe.com/so-cal-housing-market-dt3751.html

About spit my beer......

Anonymous said...

I seem to have riled things up.
That's good.

*

Brucey what you don't seem to understand that many of us try to ignore election season, I never watch TV, and only listen to OPB a few hours a month. I do read FT & WSJ every AM, and lots on the NET, but the daily hilly/cain/oba is boring.

So in effect you haven't really riled anyone up except timmy, I myself tune-out all this political bullshit for what it is, you note that the electable cunts never discuss the Bend-Bubble, thats our job.

Reading and talking about hilly,oba,cain is like reading about any TV celeb, its fucking BORING. I understand your point about DUMBYA, but he'll soon be gone and forgotten. DUMBYA is fucked, I don't think we have ever seen anyone here come to his defense. Ever.

Coming to this rock is largely about escaping the election season, and finding out which dog is dumping shit on who, what, where, why, and when.

Anonymous said...

Coming to this rock is largely about escaping the election season, and finding out which dog is dumping shit on who, what, where, why, and when.
==============

I hereby leave this rather medium sized pile of predigested ALPO excrement for brucey-pussy, who still hasn't submitted the complaint against the City Council Executive sessions.

Now that brucey-pussy is a BendWeekly Investigative City-Beat reporter, of course he will not submit any complaints to the Ethics Commission. Nope, he will only file Freedom of Info Act requests.

Brucey-pussy is all talk and no action, or clitoris and no fuck.

Oh, and Carter, Hillary and Obama still suck! Just wait until the brokered Convention, when Al Gore will ride to the rescue!

Anonymous said...

Rush Demands Obama Apologize
March 12, 2008

BEGIN TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: This is last night on the campaign trail. And this is interesting, too. Since the media, the Drive-Bys, are paying more attention to me than they are Senator McCain, I guess Obama has decided he should shift his campaign and run against me.

OBAMA: When I hear Rush Limbaugh or some of these people talking about how we need to send 'em all back, we're not going to send 'em all back. First of all, this is a country of immigrants. Second of all, as a practical matter, we would end up having to use all of our law enforcement resources to round people up, detain them, separate families. It's not a realistic solution. We're not going to be able to solve the problem if we're just shouting about it.

RUSH: I don't know what... He's talking about immigration here, but I have never said deport these people. I have said it's not realistic. In fact, when the argument has come up... You know, when we had the amnesty program going through the bill. What was that, McCain-Kennedy? McCain-Kennedy was the amnesty. It was McCain and some other Democrat. When it was going through Congress -- well, when it was being, you know, hashed out behind closed doors under the cover of darkness -- they had all these fines. They had all these things. All these illegals that were in the country going to have to show up somewhere, pay a fine, go to the back of the line, and maybe go home or whatever, and I said, "How in the world is this going to happen? Our immigration program now can't track down all these people!" I don't know where Obama is getting this that I am in favor of deportation. I have never come out in favor of deportation. That's not the focus of "comprehensive immigration reform." The focus is stopping the inflow and securing the border, and we'll deal with things after that. There's gotta be a stop to this, pure and simple, and every bit of legislation that's come out of Congress on this has done nothing about that. They want to increase the flow of illegals, and they want these people -- both parties, so they can get their voters, or try to get these people as voters. But, anyway, I find it interesting out there, Obama hitting me, running against me here, rather than Senator McCain, because I'm in the news more than Senator McCain is.

RUSH: I got just a few sound bites here on the Spitzer stuff. By the way, I think I do need to send Obama some talking points on immigration. McCain can send Obama talking points on his middle name, and not using it.


BREAK TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: I'm in such a good mood today, I think I had a less than appropriate and serious reaction to our Obama sound bite. Would you go back, Mike, grab Obama sound bite number two, tell me when it's ready so that we can listen to this again. I'm so used to being mischaracterized; I'm so used to be being criticized; I'm so used to be being lied about that, to me, it's just funny, but I think I was a little bit too flippant about this.

OBAMA: When I hear Rush Limbaugh or some of these people talking about how we need to send 'em all back, we're not going to send 'em all back. First of all, this is a country of immigrants. Second of all, as a practical matter, we would end up having to use all of our law enforcement resources to round people up, detain them, separate families. It's not a realistic solution. We're not going to be able to solve the problem if we're just shouting about it.

RUSH: I have never called for the deportation of all illegals in this country. As I say, my original reaction to this was a bit flippant. I think that this calls for something a little bit more serious, because Senator Obama is running for president and is distorting my words, attacking me unfairly, saying things about me which aren't true. I would like to challenge Barack Obama, who is running around demanding corrections from everybody else who misspeaks about him or who offends him, I would like to challenge Obama to prove where I ever said that immigrants ought to be rounded up and deported. I have talked about creating disincentives in which companies that hire illegals stop hiring 'em, where illegal immigrants are less likely to come here or stay here because of a reduction of opportunities, but I never said we should round up people and deport them.

So I insist the Democrat presidential candidate leader, Barack Obama, apologize for this falsehood. He needs to get his facts straight, especially since he demands accuracy from others. He's out there complaining about all the stuff said about him that isn't true. He even gets mad when you use his real middle name. He gets upset about that. I have never once called for the rounding up and deportation on a mass basis of every illegal immigrant in this country. It's one thing when some stupid little blogger, some irrelevant little Drive-By journalist gets something wrong because that's their stock-in-trade. This is a presidential candidate, and he happens to be leading the Democrat race for president. Obviously, he's upset at Operation Chaos and the Rush the Vote and so forth, but that's no excuse. I am owed an apology by the man leading the Democrat presidential primary races.


BREAK TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: Obama, we played the sound bite earlier, lied about me. He has turned his focus on me since I'm in the media more than McCain is. He accused me of calling for mass deportation of all the illegal immigrants in the country, which I have never done. I earlier challenged Obama, who's running around demanding corrections from people who misspeak about him or who offend him. I challenged him earlier to prove where I ever said that immigrants ought to be rounded up and deported. I've talked about other things, creating disincentives for companies that hire illegals would stop hiring them, you know, disincentives for illegals to keep coming and so forth, but I never have supported a full deportation roundup. So earlier, I insisted that Obama apologize for his falsehood. He needs to get his facts straight out there, especially since he's demanding accuracy from everybody else. Now, Obama, back to Ferraro, Obama is saying that Ferraro is trying to divide Democrats with the slice-and-dice business. USA Today just posted it an hour ago.

Well, let me say Obama is trying to divide the nation with false allegations against me! Yes, he is. He is trying to divide the nation with false allegations against me. Obama is trying to introduce race into this discussion and into this election. You don't think there's a racial component here, when he lies about me, demanding that all these illegals be deported? You know, he's weak on the Hispanic side, folks. We've talked about this. He's trying to pick up Hispanic votes. He's doing it by attacking me and lying about me, and I've demanded that he apologize for this. He's trying to divide the nation using me and introducing race into this election by attacking me about deporting illegals. He's trying to play to the fears of Hispanic-Americans by attacking me and lying about what I said. He's playing to the fears of the Latino community, and I demand that he stop it. At least stop it in my name because I didn't say anything like he said I said. He's all sensitive about being lied about and so forth. I've got more experience being lied about than Obama will have even if he becomes president. He's a presidential candidate, and when those guys start lying about you, you know, Clinton tells these lying jokes about me at the White House Correspondents Dinner, also race related, by the way, and now Obama has gotten into the act.

END TRANSCRIPT

Anonymous said...

"In twenty years we'll probably be paying $500k for a new car, and not blinking an eye, that car will be a cocoon, and probably fly, and run on solar/water, ... and obviously fewer and fewer will have those cars."

My god -- may I ask what you've been drinking? Why don't you call it a night?

:)

Anonymous said...

"In twenty years we'll probably be paying $500k for a new car, and not blinking an eye, that car will be a cocoon, and probably fly, and run on solar/water, ... and obviously fewer and fewer will have those cars."

My god -- may I ask what you've been drinking? Why don't you call it a night?

***

I guess I have to explain. In India right now they have private planes for $8k US dollars, trouble is our FAA will not approve them here. The India/China market for aviation is HUGE, the US is dead, there will be tons of entrepreneurs in China/India, and the 'plane' in 20 years will be a hybrid auto/plane/home. Good ones will cost $500k. Even today $1M for a top-end auto is nothing think Ferrari.

Running on water is quite simple, there are hydrogen catalytic devices that can extract the hydrogen from water, and then use that for a fuel cell, the solar is obvious. With composite materials the airplanes will get lighter, and thus require less thrust.

In summary inflation will continue to exist, as there has NOT been a mercantile society in the history of MAN that has not diluted and made his/her paper-currency worthless over time. We're continue to ratchet up the jumbo-cap, because debasing currency is what mercantile paper money civilizations do, and have always have done. So, this isn't really a DUMBYA problem, he just comes from a good nazi family of opportunists, he's fun to pick on because like most silver spoons he's pathetic.

The politicians don't run this country, it runs its self on greed & fear.

I'm a physicist, so anytime anyone wants to talk aviation, and/or energy devices, and future technology 'bring it on', its Just no going to happen here in Bend. The market is gone, the future of technology is China/India.

Bewert said...

Re: elections

Yep, I'm going back to hoisting a few beers for two Americans winning both overall World Cups in the ski world. Only the second time ever, and the first time since 1983, right after my own collegiate ski racing "career" ended.

The BULL front page has an awesome article on spending $8 million fixing the ball fields at Summit. Guess anything that involves large moving machinery is money well speint in Costa's mind.

Oh, and Eric King is going to apply to become the permanent City Manager. If his proposal to spend a half-million on consultants in our time of fiscal grief is the best he can do, maybe he should just move on.

Yes, I do stuff, but no, you won't hear about it for at least 30 days after it is received and logged in, by law. So keep up your whining.

Anonymous said...

The following is a PR issued by Brooks Resources on the Bulgarian based pr-usa.net. Real sleazy, but this is how the BULL gets its news.

*
Only in Bend, can you find such sleaze. Best sleaze in 20 years.
*

Mount Bachelor Village Resort

Mount Bachelor Village Resort is offering a special spring break ski package for its guests. Situated on a ridge overlooking the Deschutes River, the resort is just five minutes from Downtown Bend and on the road to Mt. Bachelor – the perfect location for any Spring Break vacation.

Bend,Oregon,March,14,2008 -- Mount Bachelor Village Resort is offering a special spring break ski package for its guests. Visitors to Bend can make reservations for any of these packages by calling 1-800-838-9548 or booking online at www.mtbachelorvillage.com

SKI FREE AND STAY FREE WHEN YOU STAY THREE!*
Stay 3 nights in any Mount Bachelor Village room or condominium and get the 4th night FREE! Plus, receive one FREE youth (6-12) multi-day lift ticket when you purchase one adult multi-day lift ticket.

Enjoy the slopes of Mt. Bachelor during the day and the comfort and luxury that Mt. Bachelor Village offers in the evening. Situated on a ridge overlooking the Deschutes River, the resort is just five minutes from Downtown Bend and on the road to Mt. Bachelor – the perfect location for any Spring Break vacation.

About Mount Bachelor Village Resort
A Brooks Resources development, Mount Bachelor Village Resort is Bend’s only luxury resort. Located on the road to Mt. Bachelor, Mount Bachelor Village Resort offers a wide-range of lodging accommodations, including hotel rooms, condominiums and single-family homes.

The resort features: a riverside hiking trail; complimentary transportation to the mountain; a heated outdoor pool (open seasonally) and spas; six outdoor tennis courts; state-of-the-art conference center and complimentary access to the Athletic Club of Bend. For more information, call 1-800-838-9548 or visit www.mtbachelorvillage.com.
Pressrelease distribution by pressreleasepoint ( http://www.pressreleasepoint.com )

For more information,contact:

Diane Wilcox
Mount Bachelor Village Resort
Bend, Oregon
541.389.5900
wilcox@mtbachelorvillage.comThis e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it
http://www.mtbachelorvillage.com

Anonymous said...

Oh, and Eric King is going to apply to become the permanent City Manager. If his proposal to spend a half-million on consultants in our time of fiscal grief is the best he can do, maybe he should just move on.

*

PDX spends $40M/yr on "Imaging and Visioning" Consultants. So if Bend is going to be the "best in 20 years", then we need a lot of 'Imaging'.

These 'consultants' is how the revolving door works in Oregon, where conservatives revolve in & out of the Military/Prison complex. Liberals revolve in&out of the 'visioning' consulting biz.

If anyone in this fucking town gave a fucking shit, they would be down at city-hall beating their chest.

Not schmoooozing like bruce pussy to tell anal power generators.

So, long as everyone in this town believes that city-hall & city-staff will rescue the falling-knife RE prices, then they'll let them blow the money.

That said next year when this place is on the toxic waste bond MUNI list, and there is NO money, and everyone is facing foreclosures, and the whole USA says the MEDIAN of Bend is $180k or less, then you'll finally see the lazy cunts of Bend, get off their ass.

There will never be any money for bruce pussys anal-turbines, but don't tell him that.

Bewert said...

In other news, we now have Kristen joining names like Lindsey and Britney...

Where oh where is Sally Heatherton when we need her?

Bewert said...

Funny how it can be news in Washington but we don't hear much about it back here when it concerns a Repub. From the WashPo's Capitol Briefing:

NRCC Scandal: How Did It Happen?
Greg Walden had a problem.

The Oregon Republican lawmaker was serving as the head of the National Republican Congressional Committee's audit committee, and he had been badgering the NRCC's treasurer, Christopher Ward, to set up a meeting with the committee's accounting firm.

"I sought for several years to meet with the outside auditors," said Walden. "There was always some seemingly legitimate reason why that didn't happen."

Well, now we know the reason, and it appears to have been anything but legitimate.

Walden ran the audit committee for several years through 2006, during which time, the NRCC publicly disclosed Thursday, the campaign arm never actually had a real outside audit. Instead Ward -- who is now being investigated for allegedly transferring several hundred thousand dollars from the committee's coffers to his own accounts -- put together fake audits, complete with forged stationery from a real auditing firm.

For five years, Ward forged audits, and not a single member of Congress or any other NRCC staffer ever actually met with or talked to anyone from the outside firm that was supposedly reviewing the books. No one from the outside firm actually ever came to the NRCC offices to meet with anyone or pick up any papers. The NRCC never paid the outside firm a dime for its services supposedly rendered, and no one noticed that, either.

It was Walden's successor as audit committee chairman, Rep. Mike Conaway (R-Texas), a certified public accountant, who finally forced the issue in January when he similarly demanded a meeting with the auditors and then realized that the 2006 audit Ward had submitted was a fake.

But Walden had his concerns long before that. And he says he complained to other members of the NRCC's executive committee and the NRCC's chairman in 2006, Rep. Tom Reynolds (N.Y.), about his inability to get a meeting with the auditors. Those complaints filtered down to Ward himself, who told Walden, "I'm as mad as you are," and blamed the auditors themselves.

Walden said Ward always gave a reason for why the meeting couldn't happen: A different firm was doing the audit, we're waiting for the newest audit to be finished, the auditors are too busy, and so on.

"It frustrated me that I could not get it done," Walden said.

In the end, Walden felt that there was only so much he could do at a committee that he now believes was far too staff-driven. "It's always been that way," he said.

Current NRCC Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.), who took over the job after the 2006 election, says he is trying to change that culture, putting members more directly in charge of all aspects of the committee's operation.

"If you remember when I first got there, I was accused of being a micromanager," Cole said. "You don't hear that much anymore."

If there's a bright side to any of this, Cole said he at least takes pride that "our team found it, our team reported it and our team fixed it." And, Cole said, the committee has already spent upwards of $360,000 on legal and accounting fees to clean up the mess, a number that is sure to grow larger.

The NRCC is lucky that Conaway is a CPA. Though Walden had served before on the board of a bank, he was not a professional accountant. "I read the audit and it looked fine. There was no material issue," Walden recalled.

The NRCC has now put in stricter internal controls, not only requiring more member involvement but also ensuring that major financial transactions are not solely controlled by any one person. But even with tougher controls, members still must be able to trust their staff.

"You put your confidence and trust in the people you name as treasurer," said Rep. Steve LaTourette (R-Ohio). "I have a treasurer of my campaign, and if he tells me there's $300,000 in the bank, I believe there's $300,000 in the bank."

Now if it was a local Dem that faced re-election this fall there would be a front page article, an editorial page column and an editorial cartoon that somehow managed to include Hillary and Obama as well.

Bewert said...

So back to the bubble: isn't there some sort of federal reporting system for home loans? That we could look up and see just how many are being made here?

We really need a mortgage broker in here, like we have Marge on the RE sales side

LavaBear said...

Op-Ed Columnist
Betting the Bank


Article Tools Sponsored By
By PAUL KRUGMAN
Published: March 14, 2008

Four years ago, an academic economist named Ben Bernanke co-authored a technical paper that could have been titled “Things the Federal Reserve Might Try if It’s Desperate” — although that may not have been obvious from its actual title, “Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Investigation.”

Today, the Fed is indeed desperate, and Mr. Bernanke, as its chairman, is putting some of the paper’s suggestions into effect. Unfortunately, however, the Bernanke Fed’s actions — even though they’re unprecedented in their scope — probably won’t be enough to halt the economy’s downward spiral.

And if I’m right about that, there’s another implication: the ugly economics of the financial crisis will soon create some ugly politics, too.

To understand what’s going on, you have to know a bit about how monetary policy usually operates.

The Fed’s economic power rests on the fact that it’s the only institution with the right to add to the “monetary base”: pieces of green paper bearing portraits of dead presidents, plus deposits that private banks hold at the Fed and can convert into green paper at will.

When the Fed is worried about the state of the economy, it basically responds by printing more of that green paper, and using it to buy bonds from banks. The banks then use the green paper to make more loans, which causes businesses and households to spend more, and the economy expands.

This process can be almost magical in its effects: a committee in Washington gives some technical instructions to a trading desk in New York, and just like that, the economy creates millions of jobs.

But sometimes the magic doesn’t work. And this is one of those times.

These days, it’s rare to get through a week without hearing about another financial disaster. Some of this is unavoidable: there’s nothing Mr. Bernanke can or should do to prevent people who bet on ever-rising house prices from losing money. But the Fed is trying to contain the damage from the collapse of the housing bubble, keeping it from causing a deep recession or wrecking financial markets that had nothing to do with housing.

So Mr. Bernanke and his colleagues have been doing the usual thing: printing up green paper and using it to buy bonds. Unfortunately, the policy isn’t having much effect on the things that matter. Interest rates on government bonds are down — but financial chaos has made banks unwilling to take risks, and it’s getting harder, not easier, for businesses to borrow money.

As a result, the Fed’s attempt to avert a recession has almost certainly failed. And each new piece of economic data — like the news that retail sales fell last month — adds to fears that the recession will be both deep and long.

So now the Fed is following one of the options suggested in that 2004 paper, which was about things to do when conventional monetary policy isn’t getting any traction. Instead of following its usual practice of buying only safe U.S. government debt, the Fed announced this week that it would put $400 billion — almost half its available funds — into other stuff, including bonds backed by, yes, home mortgages. The hope is that this will stabilize markets and end the panic.

Officially, the Fed won’t be buying mortgage-backed securities outright: it’s only accepting them as collateral in return for loans. But it’s definitely taking on some mortgage risk. Is this, to some extent, a bailout for banks? Yes.

Still, that’s not what has me worried. I’m more concerned that despite the extraordinary scale of Mr. Bernanke’s action — to my knowledge, no advanced-country’s central bank has ever exposed itself to this much market risk — the Fed still won’t manage to get a grip on the economy. You see, $400 billion sounds like a lot, but it’s still small compared with the problem.

Indeed, early returns from the credit markets have been disappointing. Indicators of financial stress like the “TED spread” (don’t ask) are a little better than they were before the Fed’s announcement — but not much, and things have by no means returned to normal.

What if this initiative fails? I’m sure that Mr. Bernanke and his colleagues are frantically considering other actions that they can take, but there’s only so much the Fed — whose resources are limited, and whose mandate doesn’t extend to rescuing the whole financial system — can do when faced with what looks increasingly like one of history’s great financial crises.

The next steps will be up to the politicians.

I used to think that the major issues facing the next president would be how to get out of Iraq and what to do about health care. At this point, however, I suspect that the biggest problem for the next administration will be figuring out which parts of the financial system to bail out, how to pay the cleanup bills and how to explain what it’s doing to an angry public.

LavaBear said...

The above Op-Ed was published BEFORE the Fed started working to bailout Bear Stearns this morning.

Good thing the rich people are coming to buy up all of our local RE. This kinda stuff doesn't affect them.

Bewert said...

From the latest Fed Beige Book:

Real Estate and Construction
Residential real estate markets were generally weak over the last couple of months. Sales were low in every District with very few local exceptions. Sales declines were particularly large in the Boston, Minneapolis, Richmond, and St. Louis Districts; at least some respondents in each of these Districts reported drops in home sales of more than 20 percent year-over-year. Contacts in the Chicago, Kansas City, and Philadelphia Districts cited tight credit conditions as a reason for low sales; each of those Districts either reported or expected stabilization of demand for homes in the low and mid-price ranges.

Districts that reported home prices all saw overall declines; one exception was the Manhattan co-op and condo market, where prices increased 5 percent compared with a year ago. Inventories remained high as demand was still fairly low. A few contacts in the Chicago, Cleveland, and Richmond Districts reported an increase in inquiries, although this increase in traffic had not yet translated into increased sales. Residential construction declined or remained at low levels in most Districts.

The markets for office and retail space showed signs of a slowdown in several Districts. Office vacancies were reported up, and leasing volumes down, in Manhattan, Baltimore, Washington, D.C., Memphis, portions of Maine and Rhode Island, and Las Vegas. Districts indicated that office vacancies held steady in Boston and the Carolinas, and were down in Philadelphia and in the Minneapolis and St. Louis Districts; however, contacts in the Boston and Philadelphia Districts and see some emerging slack. Office rents were mixed, however, coming in about flat in greater Boston and Manhattan, either flat or down in the Richmond District, and up in Philadelphia. Retail vacancy was reported up in the Minneapolis District and retail space demand was described as slow in the Chicago District. Demand for industrial space was described as either "firm" or "flat" in the Districts commenting on that sector.

Sales activity in nonresidential markets was down in the Boston, Dallas, Kansas City, and Chicago Districts, with contacts citing tight credit conditions as a major factor. Office sales activity remained strong, however, in the major cities of the New York District and in the San Francisco District. Eight of the twelve Districts reported that nonresidential construction activity was slow; countering these reports, the Cleveland, Dallas, and San Francisco Districts indicated that construction remained strong.

Banking and Finance

Reports on loan demand for commercial, industrial, and residential mortgage loans varied across Districts. Overall loan demand was flat in San Francisco and weakened in the Kansas City, St. Louis, Dallas, New York, and Richmond Districts. Consumer lending was flat or declining in the St. Louis, Chicago, and Cleveland Districts. Commercial and industrial loan demand was mixed in San Francisco and remained stable or declined in the Kansas City, St. Louis, Dallas, New York, and Richmond Districts. By contrast, the Chicago and Cleveland Districts reported increased business lending. Even as loan demand for new residential mortgages remained sluggish or declined, lower interest rates prompted increases in refinancing of existing mortgages in a number of Districts, including San Francisco, St. Louis, New York, Richmond, Atlanta, Cleveland, and Chicago. Cleveland cited a small rise in delinquencies, especially for real estate loans, and Atlanta reported an increase in mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures. New York, on the other hand, saw a rise in delinquencies for all loan categories except residential mortgages, which were unchanged. Tight credit standards were reported in the Atlanta, San Francisco, Kansas City, St. Louis, Chicago, Dallas, Richmond, and New York Districts. Kansas City indicated a worsening of overall loan quality, Chicago reported a deterioration of consumer loan quality, and Cleveland also saw a decline in credit quality for business customers and consumers. By contrast, Dallas reported sound credit quality.


Source

Bewert said...

For San Fran District:

Real Estate and Construction

Activity in residential real estate markets continued to decelerate in most areas, while activity in commercial real estate markets expanded further. Contacts from Arizona, California, and Nevada reported that the pace of home sales and price appreciation moderated further. In the Pacific Northwest--where residential real estate markets had remained hot earlier this year--home sales reportedly softened and permits for new residential construction fell, with the exception of continued robust activity in the market for condominiums in downtown Seattle. Residential real estate markets also remained hot in most parts of Utah, especially in Salt Lake City. On the commercial side, office and retail vacancies fell further throughout the District, and rental rates have been rising steadily this year. Construction activity for commercial and public structures remained strong in most areas, largely offsetting slower home building. In some rapid growth areas such as Salt Lake City and parts of Oregon, builders continued to face significant cost increases due to tight supplies of skilled workers and selected construction materials.

Financial Institutions

District banking contacts reported strong loan demand on net but slight slowing for some categories. Commercial and industrial lending remained robust. By contrast, residential mortgage origination and refinancing activity slowed further, and some contacts noted slight weakening in demand for consumer loans. Scattered reports indicated slight erosion in credit quality for residential mortgages and consumer loans.


Source

Almost sounds kind of rosy considering the widespread reports of big defaults from all kinds of financial institutions.

Bewert said...

NODs up to 49 through yesterday, including one in Broken Top. Not that big, really, at $423K, it was bought back in 2004. Tough times are reaching higher...

Bewert said...

Turns out the BT owners defaulting are Sunriver-based realtors...but they seem to have other properties so this may just be an investment property.

Bewert said...

From Forbes:
Fed, Treasury issue reassurance statements after Bear Stearns bailout

(Updates with Paulson statement)

NEW YORK (Thomson Financial) - The Federal Reserve will provide whatever liquidity the financial markets need and is watching them closely, it said this morning and the Treasury Secretary said he is confident market disruption will be kept to a minimum.

The Fed 'is monitoring market developments closely and will continue to provide liquidity as necessary to promote the orderly functioning of the financial system,' its statement said.

The Fed board also 'voted unanimously to approve the arrangement announced by JP Morgan Chase and Bear Stearns (nyse: BSC - news - people ) this morning,' according to the release.

Bear Stearns Cos. (nyse: BSCPRE - news - people ) earlier today confirmed that it's agreed to a secured loan facility for up to 28 days with JPMorgan Chase (nyse: JPM - news - people ).

Within minutes of the Fed statement, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson released one of his own saying, 'our financial system is flexible and resilient and I am confident that the efforts of regulators and market participants will minimize disruption to the system.'

Paulson said the Treasury is working closely with the Fed and the Securities and Exchange Commission and that 'I appreciate the leadership of the Federal Reserve in enhancing the stability and orderliness of our markets.'

Bear Stearns had been the subject of market rumors about its financial viability for the last day or so and the company said its liquidity position had deteriorated rapidly.

Alan Schwartz, the company's president, said 'we have tried to confront and dispel these rumors and parse fact from fiction. Nevertheless, amidst this market chatter, our liquidity position in the last 24 hours had significantly deteriorated. We took this important step to restore confidence in us in the marketplace, strengthen our liquidity and allow us to continue normal operations.'

The company said it will be able to access liquidity through this facility 'as needed' and that it's in talks with JP Morgan about permanent financing or other alternatives.

Market analysts said the Fed has effectively used JP Morgan Chase as a conduit to give Bear Stearns access to financing from its discount window.

According to Robert Brusca of FAO Economics, 'this Fed operation in which the Fed is channeling funds to Bear Sterns though JP Morgan is reminiscent of the Fed's lending under (then Fed chairman) Paul Volcker to Prudential-Bache at a time that the Hunt brothers, customers of Pru-Bache were hard pressed to meet margin calls (and filed) in their attempt to corner the silver market.'

Volcker didn't want to bail out the Hunt brothers, Brusca said, but the danger to a major brokerage firm was too big a threat to the financial system.

Bewert said...

So what will happen if one of our local ex-high flying banks has a similar "liquidity problem" due to "rumors and innuendo" about its imminent prospects? Doesn't seem so far fetched to me. I am transferring some funds out of savings and into a Scottrade brokerage account, not to invest but just to sit and earn a little interest. Seems safer right now...

Anonymous said...

CACB @ 9.25 down 5% today,

Everyday in Bend is a good day.

CACB is the best place to put your money in 20 years.

Anonymous said...

The City of Bend is weighing a bailout of CACB should its price continue to decline.

CACB is too important to CO's RE economy to be allowed to fail.

Anonymous said...

Remington Ranch has had all loans called. They have two golf courses!

What about Tetherow??

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

From BendBB... Holy Fuckin Crap:


PostPosted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 5:38 pm Post subject: 1/2 March homes sales stats
Here are the mid March stats: As of 3/14/08

36 Sold @ 261k med.

07 95 Sold @ 358k med.

05 118 Sold @250k med.

1997 42 Sold @123k med.

So we are seeing 1997 volume and 2005 medians....SO FAR

Just somthing to chew on. The pending sale volume is going up..as it does this time of year.

Bewert said...

Re: If we get a conservative version of Bruce here who tells us how great O'Reilly is and to go read the comments at Free Republic, I'll rip his head off, too. Bruce is identifiable and repetitive.


So rip my head off with some Olbermann untruths.

DKos is a lot like this place, an a larger scale. Reality-based...and if you're not you ass will be quickly handed to you.

Bewert said...

..your ass...

'Sigh'

Anonymous said...

Bruce, you are an ass.

Bruce, your ass has been handed to you by almost everybody on this blog, from me, timmy, buster, homer, Ms, Sally, ICan'tBelieveIt'sNotButter, ...

Bruce, you still talk the talk, but crawl the walk wrt Exec Session, butt plugs, etc. All hat, no cattle.

And now you WANT a brucey-pussey look-alike, but with O'Reilly politics? What, you WANT a FauxNews AllHatNoCattle to add to the BendBubble discourse?

No. Fucking. Clue.

Maybe next brussey-pussey will want a brucey-pussey Religious Fundalmentalist to debate religious topics with?

Stop. The. Madness.

tim said...

>>36 Sold @ 261k med.

Soon, tumbleweeds.

This is an interesting situation because we have the intersection of local pain and national pain (and global pain, as foreign housing also falls).

People are so used to "Real East is local" that it's taking them a while to get the hang of when an economy goes to hell.

Bear Sterns just taught us that when you say "We don't have a liquidity problem," that means that in two days the Grim Reaper will go all ninja on you with his scythe.

In other words, there's no proper answer now when someone asks a financial institution if they are safe. No one's safe.

Anonymous said...

The Best GreenCities,
From Country Home magazine:

Data was collected from sources which include the Census Bureau, the U.S. Green Building Council, Department of Transportation, Environmental Protection Agency, U.S. Department of Agriculture, the GreenPeople.org online directory.


Here is the complete list of the top 25:


2008 Best Green Places:

1. Corvallis, OR

2. Portland Metro area, OR

3. Bellingham, WA

4. Santa Rosa Petaluma, CA

5. Boulder, CO

6. Eugene/Springfield, OR

7. Santa Cruz Watsonville, CA

8. Minneapolis, MN

9. Bend, OR

10. Santa Barbara metro, CA
==========

Yes, Bend made the Top 10!

But how did Corvallis make Numero Uno?

Well, somebody should ask our very own Bruce.

It seems that Corvallis makes huge amounts of Green Power. They created this huge dump outside of town. They filled the dump with trash. Then they capped it with 4 feet of clay. Then they created a large vent to capture the methane gas.

They actually created the world's largest butt plug powered mega generator. Not sure if Bruce was the consultant, or if somebody robbed his idea.

Kinda takes the old middle school trick of lighting your farts on fire to an extreme, eh?

Bewert said...

Re: Bruce, you still talk the talk, but crawl the walk wrt Exec Session, butt plugs, etc. All hat, no cattle.

And all our various Anonymouse's do is whine...

Hell, I haven't seen one of you even bother to show up to a CC meeting. Just sit at your fucking keyboard and bitch and complain like some stupid fucking cunt.

Par for the course.

You won't know what I've done until it actually gets made public, so keep up your whining for at least another month or so. Once in a while you might move your dildo from your backdoor to your toothless piehole, so your whine sounds more like a moan. It's more becoming that way.

And how the fuck Bend made it onto a top 10 list of green cities is a wonder to me. Hell, Oregon has 4 of the top 10?

Anonymous said...

"Hell, I haven't seen one of you even bother to show up to a CC meeting. Just sit at your fucking keyboard and bitch and complain like some stupid fucking cunt"

+ + +

Brucey-pussy, this ain't about anybody else, it is about you.

Remember when you said you were going to file a complaint two month's ago, but you just had to photocopy another 100 pgs? And remember when you got slammed, cause all you really need to file a complaint is a brief one-pager?

But you could take the extra step from talk-talk-talk to actually DOING what you said you were going to do.

And now that you are a Big-Shot reporter with credentials from BendOver Weekly, does anybody really believe that you are going to file that complaint? HA HA HA!

But wait, the pussy blathers onward a bit more:
"You won't know what I've done until it actually gets made public, so keep up your whining for at least another month or so."

So now you are stalling for another extra month? What, so you can photocopy another couple a hundred pages?

Waiting for you to file the Ethic Commission complaint requires more patience than explaining the difference between AVERAGE and MEDIAN.

You are a certified pussy. Not even a cunt. Just a whimpy little mexican-hairless pussy who is afraid of his own shadow. No wonder you married a buff skier dude who can protect your massive pussy-ness. As you already stated, she's big enough to be the man of the house, since that is no job for a pussy.

Anonymous said...

Hey, tough guys I google'd 'bruce pussy' and our snatch didn't come until #3, note #1 bruce-pussy in USA is WILLIS.

***

Bruce 'Sissy' Willis Sues Over Screen Scratch:
Aspen, CO--Sporting a one inch scratch over his right eye screen he-man, Bruce 'Pussy' Willis, has sued, the decidedly not, Revolution Studios, ...
www.theassassinatedpress.com/guile.htm - 9k - Cached - Similar pages
Alvin Adams
thought bruce pussy lee was dead but has he had a personality refund and a face lift atol?>???????????? 56 weeks ago. Jon Kinahan ALVIN hi m8 uk? ...
www.bebo.com/Profile.jsp?MemberId=3469302 - Similar pages
Language/Etymology/silly pussy etymology of
From: Bruce.Tindall@launchpad.unc.edu (Bruce Tindall) Subject: Silly Pussy. In article dw@unislc.uucp (Dan Wright) ...
tafkac.org/language/etymology/silly_pussy_etymology_of.html - 5k - Cached - Similar pages
Juniper Ridge Info: FLASH--Les Schwab Pays City
BRUCE PUSSY, Why don't you ask the correct fucking questions. The city authorized the $2.5M to be dispersed to KURATEK back on Oct 15, 2007. ...
juniper-ridge-info.blogspot.com/2008/01/flash-les-schwab-pays-city.html - 64k - Cached - Similar pages
Bend Blogs » Bend Bubble 2 » Bend Overwhelmed By STD Epidemic
But "bruce" done made the jump to lightspeed, and has put up with almost unending taunts of "bruce pussy", and other intellectually stimulating banter. ...

Anonymous said...

And how the fuck Bend made it onto a top 10 list of green cities is a wonder to me. Hell, Oregon has 4 of the top 10?

*

That's simple almost all Oregon city's are full of bruce-pussy, and the people who do the surveys like their pussy 'green'.

Anonymous said...

Huh?

1- bruce-pussy Willis
2- bruce-pussy Lee
3- bruce-pussy from Bend

How come we doesn't have some famous, important pussy? I thought Bend was number 1? I feel cheated somehow.

Anonymous said...

Rush writes like Buttster, maybe brothers separated at birth.

*

Don't Doubt the Limbaugh Effect
March 13, 2008

BEGIN TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: All right, the Clintons. There was a conference call with reporters yesterday. The New York Observer's Jason Horowitz was talking to Hillary's communications director, Howard Wolfson. He asked Wolfson a question about me. Now, his question is all wrong. I never took credit for what happened in Mississippi, and I did not urge Republicans to cross over in Mississippi to vote for Hillary. I'm being credited with it because more Republicans than normal did cross over and vote for Hillary, and that might have been residual from the week before when the strategery was actively urged on this program for Republicans to vote for Hillary in Ohio and Texas. I said, even after the Mississippi results came in the next day, Wednesday, I didn't take credit for this. I disavow any credit for what happened in Mississippi. We wanted Obama to win. We want Obama to win everything 'til we get to Pennsylvania, and then we get back in gear. But, remember, for Pennsylvania, if you want to cross over there, you Republicans, you gotta register by 24th of March if you want to do it legally. We want Hillary to win Pennsylvania. You know what the strategery has been, you know the Limbaugh Effect, Operation Rush the Vote, Create Chaos. So here's this exchange, keeping in mind that the reporter here, Jason Horowitz, gets the premise in Mississippi wrong.

HOROWITZ: Rush Limbaugh was saying today that he thinks that it was because a lot of Republicans in Mississippi were voting for Senator Clinton because they want her to be the nominee. Do you think that that has any role in it?

WOLFSON: Absolutely not. I understand that that might be his spin, or the spin of others. Look there's a Gallup poll that just came out that had Senator Obama and Senator Clinton both equally running ahead of Senator McCain by two points. I think the notion is laughable that people are going to vote for anyone for reasons other than the fact that they believe that they are going to be the best president regardless of party. I just think that that doesn't hold water. I think it is an effort by the other camp and others to explain away our recent success with independents and Republicans.

RUSH: See, they're ungrateful. I knew they'd never thank me, and I wasn't expecting them to thank me. In fact, I was expecting to be dissed. They wouldn't be the Clintons if they weren't dissing me and threatening me like Hillary did recently. "Be careful what you wish for, Rush." Ooh! I cowered in the corner. Chris Matthews isn't buying it, though. Chris Matthews says don't doubt the Limbaugh Effect.

Anonymous said...

But "bruce" done made the jump to lightspeed, and has put up with almost unending taunts of "bruce pussy", and other intellectually stimulating banter. ...

*

The above while it might make BrucePussy famous in the blogo-ether, does prove Homer to be an intellectually smelly cunt.

'Lightspeed' other than post the LS Sales Agreement, BP has never accomplished a single thing in Bend. Homer of course is being sarcastic, but BP is our only hope.

Bend is Fucked.

Anonymous said...

Bend is #1, the following is from "Urbandictionary.Com". Note the stat's income negative $240k, un-employment 65%. They got this placed pegged. Suburb of Cali.

***
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Bend%2C+Oregon
***

1. Bend, Oregon


A suburb of Los Angeles located in the heart of Oregon, population 70,320.

Average Income: -($240)
Unemployment rate: 65%

Institutions of higher learning: 0

Climate: Cold, harsh winters with short interludes of intense bug activity

Local attractions and culture: Television, numerous Dairy Queen restaurants

Residents consider Bend the perfect place to live, citing the paved roads, lack of meteor strikes, and being only a 4 hour drive from Washington and California.

If I had to live anywhere in California, I would live in Bend, Oregon.

Anonymous said...

$12M is MISSING from City Treasury!!!

***

Note below, the city has $12M missing, note that is what they spent on Les Schwab hill at Juniper-Ridge out of pocket cash, the $3M IN, went to KURATEK. Now they're claiming that $12M just simply vanished, like the payoff to Knife-River never happened.

Is this city fucked or what??


No pot of gold: Bend's red ink soars to $20 million

March 14, 2008 KTVZ-BEND

Tough budget times will mean tough decisions for Bend city councilors in coming weeks and months. City's first 2-year budget taking major hit from downturn.

http://www.ktvz.com/global/story.asp?s=8020863[url]


By Barney Lerten, KTVZ.COM

When Bend city councilors get their latest update on the city's distressed budget Monday evening, they'll have to look hard for a St. Patrick's Day rainbow. And even if they find it, there surely won't be a pot of gold at the end of it - not with a projected shortfall nearing $20 million for the city's first two-year budget.


A "summary of revenue shortfalls for the 2007-09 biennium," distributed to the public and councilors Friday, shows the current fiscal year's revenue is $7.6 million below projections - and for 2008-09, the current best guess is for a gap of more than $12 million between expectations and reality.

The biggest hits in the update provided by Finance Director Sonia Andrews are of little surprise: planning, building and engineering fees, along with franchise fees and ambulance and FireMed revenue. Planning fees are expected to be down 50 percent from expectations, or $2.1 million for 2007-08, rising to 59 percent, or off almost $3 million in the year starting July 1.

"With the radical drop in residential housing starts, we have to revise our development revenue estimates downwards," Andrews wrote. "Although commercial building activity continued, the decline in residential activity has simply been too great."

"The shortfalls are in revenues that we depend on for operations," she continued. "For the size of these shortfalls, every department will need to make some reductions for FY 2008-09, and certain budget reductions will affect service levels."

The city already has laid off 10 workers this year and not filled 25 vacancies, along with other cuts in materials and services, and vehicle and equipment purchases.

City departments are scheduled to meet with Interim City Manager Eric King over the next two weeks to finalize budget reduction proposals for the coming budget year, to be presented to the city council and budget committee in April.

On Wednesday night, the council's work session will focus largely on councilors' stated 2008 goals, which include financial stability, community relations, the Urban Growth Boundary expansion, Juniper Ridge and transit.

Bewert said...

TRUTH ALERT: WINTER SOLDIER HEARINGS ON NOW--SEE AND HEAR ABOUT HOW OUR $12 BILLION PER MONTH IS HELPING WIN IRAQ

Go here to watch or listen:
http://ivaw.org/wintersoldier/howtowatch

Here is another good link, with comments on the testimony:
http://warcomeshome.org/wintersoldier2008

IVAW's Winter Soldier hearings are currently being held.

In 1776, Thomas Paine wrote: "These are the times that try men's souls. The summer soldier and sunshine patriot will, in this crisis, shrink from the service of his country; but he that stands it now, deserves the love and thanks of man and woman."

Iraq Veterans Against the War argues that well-publicised incidents of U.S. brutality like the Abu Ghraib prison scandal and the massacre of an entire family of Iraqis in the town of Haditha are not the isolated incidents perpetrated by "a few bad apples", as many politicians and military leaders have claimed. They are part of a pattern, the group says, of "an increasingly bloody occupation."

"What's going on is were trying to create a space for veterans to speak out and change the rhetoric around the war from these politicians with these ideologies that have no real experience on the ground," said Aaron Hughes, a former member of the Illinois National Guard who spent a year running convoys in Iraq. "There are human beings on both sides. There are not just numbers. That's what missing in our culture. This was has been statistics, it's been rhetoric, and it's not personal. But for the American soldiers who've served there it is personal and for the Iraqi people who live there it's personal. That's why our testimony is important."

"The problem that we face in Iraq is that policymakers in leadership have set a precedent of lawlessness where we don't abide by the rule of law, we don't respect international treaties, so when that atmosphere exists it lends itself to criminal activity," argues former U.S. Army Sergeant Logan Laituri, who served a tour in Iraq from 2004 to 2005 before being discharged as a conscientious objector.

Laituri explains that precedent of lawlessness makes itself felt in the rules of engagement handed down by commanders to soldiers on the front lines. When he was stationed in Samarra, for example, he said one of his fellow soldiers shot an unarmed man while he walked down the street.

"The problem is that that soldier was not committing a crime as you might call it because the rules of engagement were very clear that no one was supposed to be walking down the street," he said. "But I have a problem with that. You can't tell a family to leave everything they know so you can bomb the shit out of their house or their city. So while he definitely has protection under the law, I don't think that legitimates that type of violence."

The veterans also want to stress the similarities between the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"The exact same units that are getting the exact same training and the exact same orders are getting sent to both Iraq and Afghanistan," explains Perry O'brien, a former US Army Medic who became a conscientious objector after his tour in Afghanistan. "What we're seeing is a lot of similarities between practices in both countries and both are equally criminal."

"Something that I personally witnessed and that I'm going to be submitting testimony on is the use of civilian corpses for medical practice," he added. "When a patient would die we would hear over the PA system we would hear an announcement through the clinc saying 'Who wants to learn how to do a chest tube?' or 'Who wants to know what a human heart looks like?' Rather than giving the proper treatment of the dead, the body would become a cadaver for medical practice with no consent from the victim."

Go here to watch or listen:
http://ivaw.org/wintersoldier/howtowatch

Here is another good link, with comments on the testimony:
http://warcomeshome.org/wintersoldier2008

Duncan McGeary said...

Hey, Bruce, I just gotta say. Leave the politics for the political blogs.

I'm sure that Homeless on the High Desert, Red Carpets, Harold's Blog, The Grumpy Forester, and Disturbing the Comfortable would love to mix it up with you.

Anonymous said...

Climate: Cold, harsh winters with short interludes of intense bug activity

***

I don't remember such harsh winters as a kid in Bend -- or any major bug activity (except for June bugs)?

Has it changed that much from the 60s?

Anonymous said...

City-Hall SHORT of $$$ goes back to the SURGE analogy, and I know dunc hates it, but its so true.

The folks running this town, don't give a fuck about joe-blow, never did, and never will.

Bend is ASPEN, and that dream will never die. Even if it means bankrupting the town, its all or nothing. Its BOOM or BUST, no in between. This is the little town that could.

Note on this Eric King issue, aren't we still paying Ron Garzini $10k/month?? We were last time I looked, and remember what Garzini always says. "Run Bend Like a Business", which means debt, borrow as much as you can, and reach as high as you can reach.

It's the SURGE, its ALL or NOTHING, of course 'we the taxpayer' those of US that aren't reaching into the clouds of Grander, those of us with are feet on the ground, want a simple life, and surely don't want WALMART in ASPEN.

The folks that run this town, have all their money in the dream, just like 'twisted-little-shrub' ( bush ), has all his political capital in IRAQ.

Bend is going down, and city-hall is going to take US down with THEM, and there's NOT a damn thing anyone in this town can to do to stop it.

Anonymous said...

Hey, Bruce, I just gotta say. Leave the politics for the political blogs.

*

Dunc,

He'll never listen, this is why he's our bruce-pussy, from day-one, this was obvious about this guy.

He's a gadfly, he's now working on a 10k page complaint to the city-hall about executive session. By the time he's done, Bend will be in a second ice age.

Bruce is the brother from another planet.

Anonymous said...



Remington Ranch has one golf course under construction which is over half finished. There are other courses in the master plan. The banks have not called the loans at Remington so get your story straight. The owners are in the process of securing additional funding to bond the required hotel, which is why the construction has stopped.


They're trying to secure loans, because their prior loans were called. There will be no new loans for Remington. The entire project has collapsed.

The golf-courses will never be finished.

Just wait another few weeks, if you haven't heard about this all the bankers I know are talking about it, Remington is seen as the canary in the Bend Coal mine. Once the plug is pulled on Remington, nobody investing in these projects will be seen as smart.

So keep up your bullshit, and try to find good things to say about Golf Resorts, and fact is they'll ALL be on HOLD in six months.

Anbody been up to Tetherow lately? They're working their ass off to get things done ASAP, they know that if they don't get this PIG up and running in 3-6 months and some revenue their fucked.

Remington is already fucked, want to see the future of regional golf resorts, look at Remington Ranch. Don't know about Remingtons finance problems?? Get off your computer and go talk to real people and learn whats happening in the golf-resort world.

tim said...

As for Bruce, I like hearing what HE has to say. Copying and pasting Olbermann or some KOSsack is stupid. You copy and paste too much and pretty soon the whole Internet is stale. Go ahead and foam at the mouth, Bruce, but do it without pasting crap up here.

I can handle about one level of abstraction of how economics or politics affects Bend. Golf courses in Florida? I get the connection. Liquidity problems? Got it. Fannie and Freddie. Makes sense. Politics that Buster posts? Sometimes I get it. Politics that Bruce posts? Too far removed. I start to glaze over and think about BBQ.

The way to NOT get things done is to divide your team instead of unite them, Bruce. You want to fail? Insult half the people you're trying to rally because you don't like their politics. Then piss off half the remaining ones for another reason. Then half the remaining ones.

Want to succeed? Find and nurture commonalities. You just may have to work with asshole atheist independents like me and even with some right-wing Christian Conservatives.

So what do you want to do, Bruce? Fight your enemies or your friends?

I'm just guessing, but I think that's why even Duncan (who I'd guess is a lefty) told you to knock it off.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Damn... that's the harshest I've ever heard Timmy.

Anonymous said...

more jewells of wisdom from timmy

tim tim should consider running for city council, but he sounds like a nice guy, so i'd be cruell to wish that on him.

"Politics that Bruce posts? Too far removed. I start to glaze over and think about BBQ."

"Go ahead and foam at the mouth, Bruce, but do it without pasting crap up here."

and keep it local, brucey-pussy.

rail on tammie bangey (what's her new name?).

Rail on bob woodward or friedman, or your other brother h bruce.

but your whining about how bush stole the 2000 election is too far removed and very stale.

and anything DailyKOS is meta chatter best left there, or at the other liberal wet dream site, HuffPost.

bruce, stop being a pussy.

and same goes for the jerk who cut and pasted bill O'Reilly and rush.

Anonymous said...

"Damn... that's the harshest I've ever heard Timmy."
=========

Huh?

Wuzzatyousay?

Timmy speakes the truth with compassion and grace, no cuss words, and you bust his balls!

Timmy is the the master, and brucey-pussy is the young grasshopper learning the ways of the master blogger.

A more compassionate human being never more patient than the Grand Master Blogger Timmy schooling the young and foolish brucey-pussy, without a harsh word for his young desciple.

Harsh word?

I don't think so, Grasshopper.

Anonymous said...

So what do you want to do, Bruce? Fight your enemies or your friends

*

Most of us are smart enough to find source information. I like ideas, very infrequently does bruce-pussy share ideas, but frequently does he post shit, and completely alien shit.

Bruce, its about the bend-bubble, our survival, and Bend, long after King-George is long gone, we in Bend, are going to have to clean up the mess. Like this week when team-bush was blaming Carter for the bubble.

This forum works best when soldiers on the ground are sharing information, so we can see the elephant.

This forum fails when folks are cutting & pasting shit you can get on AM radio.

We come here to share, we piss on the common rock and we leave a scent. But when somebody from Utah comes in with tons of NYC/DC shit and dumps it by the tandem knife-river dumpster on our rock, pretty soon all will be gone.

That said, I have always considered bruce-pussy to be a divider, and NOT a uniter. I know exactly what TIMMY is saying. Get over it we who are staying in BEND the long term need to unite and NOT divide.

Most of US don't give a FUCK about republicans, democrats, or JEEBUS freaks. Its better all left unsaid.

There are very few un-censored rocks in Bend, where people can share stuff about Bend. Let's NOT fuck this up.

In summary, the only reason I can see that bruce-pussy is doing what be does is that all other attempts to sabotage and make public the anonymous has failed, and thus now he's on a crusade to destroy the blogs.

***

Bruce Pussy and all your clones, read the following.

BendBubble2

Debating the Bend Oregon Real Estate bubble, its implications for Bend residents, businesses, and the economic outlook for this area.

Anonymous said...

HEAVY-SHIT dudes, Remington Ranch getting loans called, and now the entire US economoy getting a 'margine call' by the WORLD.

***

Debt Reckoning: U.S. Receives a Margin Call
By LIZ RAPPAPORT and JUSTIN LAHART
March 15, 2008; Page A1

The U.S. is at the receiving end of a massive margin call: Across the economy, wary lenders are demanding that borrowers put up more collateral or sell assets to reduce debts.
[One-two punch]

The unfolding financial crisis -- one that began with bad bets on securities backed by subprime mortgages, then sparked a tightening of credit between big banks -- appears to be broadening further. For years, the U.S. economy has been borrowing from cash-rich lenders from Asia to the Middle East. American firms and households have enjoyed readily available credit at easy terms, even for risky bets. No longer.

tim said...

Bruce can say whatever the hell he wants, obviously. No one gets kicked out of this hole. But what's smart to say?

Bruce, you need allies.

When you are on-point, you're great. When you drift, I feel like my kid let in a couple Jehovah's Witnesses while I was in the bathroom, and now I have to figure out how to get rid of them.

Come on, Bruce. Just be the Bruce I like. What do you want to do? Get the city to act right? Or fail to convince all of us that we need to follow The True Way?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I'm still with ya Brucey...

VIVA CAPSTONE TURBINES!

"There's no butt we won't plug."

Anonymous said...

bruce, stop being a pussy.

and same goes for the jerk who cut and pasted bill O'Reilly and rush.

*

McCain Issues Strict Talking Points
March 12, 2008

BEGIN TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: The is a most amazing story. I have never heard of this before. It's on The Politico. "After being forced to respond to three separate incidents in recent weeks of conservatives alluding to Barack Obama's middle name, John McCain's campaign manager today sent a memo to top supporters urging them to stick to the campaign's preferred message -- and to avoid taking gratuitous shots at their Democratic rivals. 'Overheated rhetoric and personal attacks on our opponents distract from the big differences between John McCain's vision for the future of our nation and the Democrats,' wrote Rick Davis in a document the campaign e-mailed to Republican officials and staffers this afternoon. 'This campaign is about John McCain: his vision, leadership, experience, courage, service to his country and ability to lead as commander in chief from day one.' McCain, Davis added, 'has held himself to the highest standards and he will continue to run a respectful campaign based on the issues. We expect that all supporters, surrogates and staff will hold themselves to similarly high standards when they are representing the campaign. To help guide you, please find talking points below.'"

So the McCain campaign has sent out talking points to supporters, surrogates, and staff telling them what to say. "Those talking points focus entirely on McCain's biography and positions on key issues." This is Jonathan Martin's blog at Politico.com. I have to tell you, this doesn't apply to me, folks. No, it doesn't. I'm not trying to be provocative here. This does not apply to me. I'm not a surrogate. I am a liberated American who will discuss the candidates as I see fit, without the help of the McCain campaign and their talking points. Can you believe this? Talking points? This is going to extend beyond just surrogates and staff and anybody that speaks for McCain, is going to be asked to stick to these talking points. I've never heard of a candidate issuing talking points to supporters, telling them to stick to those points and not to express their own views their own ways. (laughter) You know, this is why they don't like us on talk radio, folks, because they can issue all the talking points in the world but, you know, what are we going to do with them? (tearing paper) So they can... (doing McCain impression)"I knew Limbaugh would do this! I told you not to put those talking points out! I knew he was going to make fun of it. Damn it! Damn it to hell!"

This is still pandering to the lib media, folks. Just stick to this, if you would, please. Just say that McCain has the experience, the judgment, the character to lead America in a dangerous world. That's one of the primary talking points. So anyway I wanted to get that out of the way, get the Republican stuff out of the way, because the chaos that we've created here in the Democrat Party is too juicy. We have sound bite stories all over the place. Romney says that he would take the vice presidency, and went out there and called McCain the "big dog." Mitt Romney said in his first interview with -- it was with Hannity, wasn't it? Yeah. "I think any Republican leader in this country would be honored to be asked to serve as the vice presidential nominee, myself included." So Romney wants it, if it's offered. Some people said it will never happen because there's just too much animosity between these two guys. Romney was the most hated guy in the campaign. Huckabee. Oh! By the way, by the way, I meant to mention this yesterday and it slipped my mind. I know that there are many of you Republicans out there still in a tizzy over my Operation Chaos in the Rush Vote, urging Republicans to vote for Hillary in these primaries.

"This is not the way we Republicans do things. We don't do this. You're -- you're asking us to compromise our principles. This is something the Democrats do." You remember the calls. "Where is your integrity on this? Blah, blah, blah." You remember all this. What I meant to mention yesterday, remember what happened in the Republican primary or caucuses I guess it was in West Virginia? After the first round, who was leading? Mitt Romney was leading by quite a lot. And then what happened? Before going in and voting in the second round, the Huckster threw his support -- or McCain, one of the two -- threw his support to the Huckster. I guess... Who was it that won West Virginia? Was it McCain who won West Virginia or Huckabee? It was Huckabee. So McCain said, "Okay, I'll throw this state out. I don't need it," and the McCain forces joined the Huck forces to oust Romney in West Virginia. Now, what do you think of that? That's our side doing it. Does that bother you? Does that give you pause? Does it make you question the integrity of Governor Huckabee and Senator McCain? Because they clearly ganged up on Mitt Romney. They hated Romney, because he was running all these ads and he was paying for them himself, and there was nothing that was going to stop them, and they thought the ads were personal and unfair, direct hits and so forth. Romney said, "No, these are ads that are just on the issues." So, I meant to mention that yesterday.

BREAK TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: Speaking of McCain's talking points, they're all upset here about the use of Obama's middle name and they've had three instances now where it's happened, so the McCain campaign's put out some talking points and told the surrogates and staff and supporters, "Just talk about McCain. Don't talk about Obama. Don't mention his middle name." There was a piece in the Wall Street Journal yesterday, a story, rather, Bret Stephens. Do you know who the first person who started this Hussein business, the first person to use the middle name of Barack Obama, was? It was Barack Obama. This was October 18th, 2007, talking to Tavis Smiley, PBS. "Well, I think if you've got a guy named Barack Hussein Obama, that's a pretty good contrast to George W. Bush. If you believe that we've gotta heal America and that we gotta repair our standing in the world, then I think my supporters believe I'm the messenger who can deliver the message." The point being that on October 18th of last year it was Obama himself using his middle name, saying the fact that my middle name is Hussein and whatever connotations are attached to it, why, this is going to help bring us together. This is going to help America heal. This is going to increase our standing in the world.

How do we deal with this, folks? Obama was the first to use his middle name. He did so in the context of healing and improving our standing in the world, and now McCain has ordered nobody to use the middle name. Maybe McCain's campaign -- Rick Davis, I know you're out there -- send Obama McCain's talking points. We gotta stop this. Obama's wrong. He can't use his middle name. It makes McCain look bad, so you've got to send those talking points over to Obama. Somebody's gotta get hold of Obama and let him know what the right thing to do here is. This is kind of like the Boston Globe story we had Monday or Tuesday pointing out how back in 2004, Obama's out there saying, "We can't leave Iraq until the job is done." And they said in the headline, yes, his position has evolved on this.

Bewert said...

Re: VIVA CPST

I wanted to fucking buy back in at $1.25 but it just keeps going up.


Alt energy--the next big bubble. And hopefully one that does make actual good changes.

But I think there is money to be made shorting these days, too. I'm pretty tempted to take a chance on Cascade.

Anonymous said...

I want Bruce Pussy to show us some pic's of what these anal-turbines (CPST) have done to his boyfriends love tubes.

Anonymous said...

the correction would be more severe in city's that experienced bigger housing bubbles, and that it was also possible for home prices to “overshoot on the downside, just as they did on the upside.”

Why U.S. Home Prices May Continue To Fall
Posted In: Home Prices, Housing

Yesterday, it was the CEO of mortgage buyer Freddie Mac, Richard Syron, who made waves in the U.S. housing industry when he predicted home prices have much further to fall. Robert Schroeder of MarketWatch wrote:

Speaking to analysts on a conference call, CEO Richard Syron estimated that housing prices, from peak to trough, have dropped only a third as far as he thinks they’re going to. The McLean, Va.-based company’s expecting a peak-to-trough decline of 15% in all.

Today, the spotlight of housing gloom-and-doom belongs to the Wall Street Journal’s Scott Patterson, who wrote in his “Ahead of the Tape” segment that:

The economic balance hangs in large part on how much further home prices will fall. A look at one important measure — the relationship between home prices and household income — suggests we might not even be halfway there.

Over the long run, home prices and income should march along the same path. As households earn more, they can afford to pay for more expensive homes.

wsj-chart.gif

Source: Wall Street Journal

Patterson explained that if home prices are to re-establish their traditional relationship with household incomes— prices are coming down. He wrote:

Home prices were down 10% through the fourth quarter from their peak in mid-2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller national home-price index. But to bring prices in line with incomes, they will need to fall further. If incomes continue to grow in the next year as they have in the past decade — probably an optimistic assumption — it would take a 9% to 12% drop in home prices to bring the two measures in line with each other.

Patterson also warned that the correction would be more severe in states that experienced bigger housing bubbles, and that it was also possible for home prices to “overshoot on the downside, just as they did on the upside.” He added that Goldman Sachs economists are saying prices could fall another 15%, while Merrill Lynch economists are predicting a decline of another 20% to 30%. Patterson noted:

Anonymous said...

Some say, "What the fuck does CPST have to do with Bend?"

Good question, but there is an answer. Bend had a rep by 2004 as a sucker city, a place where any kmart leisure suit larry could hustle himself $2.5M.

Bend is green, in the same sense as Sebastian, but Bend is Green.

Follow the money, so our own Bruce-Pussy comes to Bend from Utah to sell CPST turbine-butt plugs to city-hall.

This is the canary in the Bend coal mine, when Bend finally buys this shit from Bruce-Pussy you know that the Bubble has hit bottom.

City-Hall will have hit rock bottom.

Anonymous said...

Introductory Lesson
Introduction

The introductory pages to the Book of Mormon contain the following important documents: opening page, title page, Introduction, the Testimony of Three Witnesses, the Testimony of Eight Witnesses, Testimony of the Prophet Joseph Smith, and a Brief Explanation about the Book of Mormon.
Notes and Commentary
Opening Page

An Official Announcement

In the October 1982 general conference, Elder Boyd K. Packer announced: “You should know also that by recent decision of the Brethren the Book of Mormon will henceforth bear the title ‘The Book of Mormon,’ with the subtitle ‘Another Testament of Jesus Christ.’” (in Conference Report, Oct. 1982, p. 75; or Ensign, Nov. 1982, p. 53).

President Ezra Taft Benson gave his testimony and encouragement for all to read the Book of Mormon:

“We invite all men everywhere to read the Book of Mormon, another testament of Jesus Christ.

“The Bible sits on the pulpit of hundreds of different religious sects. The Book of Mormon, the record of Joseph, verifies and clarifies the Bible. It removes stumbling blocks, it restores many plain and precious things. We testify that when used together, the Bible and the Book of Mormon confound false doctrines, lay down contentions, and establish peace. (See 2 Nephi 3:12.)

“We do not have to prove the Book of Mormon is true. The book is its own proof. All we need to do is read it and declare it! The Book of Mormon is not on trial—the people of the world, including the members of the Church, are on trial as to what they will do with this second witness for Christ” (in Conference Report, Oct. 1984, p. 7; or Ensign, Nov. 1984, p. 8).

Two years later President Benson again emphasized the importance of the Book of Mormon and warned that the members of the Church were under condemnation because they were neglecting the Book of Mormon:

“‘And they shall remain under this condemnation until they repent and remember the new covenant, even the Book of Mormon’ (D&C 84:54–57).

“Has the fact that we have had the Book of Mormon with us for over a century and a half made it seem less significant to us today? Do we remember the new covenant, even the Book of Mormon? In the Bible we have the Old Testament and the New Testament. The word testament is the English rendering of a Greek word that can also be translated as covenant. Is this what the Lord meant when He called the Book of Mormon the “new covenant”? It is indeed another testament or witness of Jesus. This is one of the reasons why we have recently added the words ‘Another Testament of Jesus Christ’ to the title of the Book of Mormon” (in Conference Report, Oct. 1986, p. 4; or Ensign, Nov. 1986, p. 4).
Title Page

Author of the Title Page

The Prophet Joseph Smith declared, “The title-page of the Book of Mormon is a literal translation, taken from the very last leaf, on the left hand side of the collection or book of plates” (History of the Church, 1:71). Since it was the last leaf, or page, of the record, and the title page says the Book of Mormon was “sealed by the hand of Moroni,” it is believed that the title page was written by Moroni.

“By Way of the Gentile”

“Joseph Smith (through whom the Book of Mormon was revealed) was of the Tribe of Ephraim. At the same time the Prophet was of the Gentiles, meaning that he was a citizen of a Gentile Nation” (Bruce R. McConkie, Mormon Doctrine, p. 311).

The Purpose of the Book of Mormon

“What is the major purpose of the Book of Mormon? To bring men to Christ and to be reconciled to him, and then to join his church—in that order. (See 2 Nephi 25:23; D&C 20:11–14, 35–37.)” (Ezra Taft Benson, in Conference Report, Oct. 1984, p. 5; or Ensign, Nov. 1984, p. 6).
Introduction

The Keystone of Our Religion

Joseph Smith said, “I told the brethren that the Book of Mormon was the most correct of any book on earth, and the keystone of our religion, and a man would get nearer to God by abiding by its precepts, than by any other book” (History of the Church, 4:461; see also President Benson’s talk in appendix A).

“The Prophet’s expression that ‘the Book of Mormon is the keystone of our religion’ means precisely what it says. The keystone is the central stone in the top of the arch. If that stone is removed, then the arch crumbles, which, in effect, means that Mormonism so-called—which actually is the gospel of Christ, restored anew in this day—stands or falls with the truth or the falsity of the Book of Mormon. . . .

“The Book of Mormon—which has come forth to prove that God inspires men and calls them to his holy work in this age and generation—establishes the verity of these great truths which comprise the message of the restoration. If the Book of Mormon is true, our message to the world is truth; the truth of this message is established in and through this book. . . .

“The Book of Mormon stands as a witness of the divine Sonship of Christ; it has come forth for ‘. . . the convincing of the Jew and Gentile that Jesus is the Christ, the Eternal God, manifesting himself unto all nations— . . .’ (Preface to the Book of Mormon.)

“This book also is a witness of the divine mission of the Prophet Joseph Smith and of the divinity of the Church set up under his instrumentality. It establishes and proves to the world that Joseph Smith is a prophet, for he received the book from a resurrected personage and translated it by the gift and power of God. And since the Book of Mormon came by revelation, which included the ministering of angels, then obviously Joseph Smith also received other revelations and was ministered to by other heavenly beings. Among those revelations was the command to organize the Church. The Church is thus the one true Church because it was set up by a prophet acting under command of God. Thus the truth of the message of the restoration is established in and through and by means of the Book of Mormon” (Bruce R. McConkie, in Conference Report, Apr. 1961, pp. 39–40).

The Book of Mormon Is for Our Day

“The Book of Mormon was written for us today. God is the author of the book. It is a record of a fallen people, compiled by inspired men for our blessing today. Those people never had the book—it was meant for us. Mormon, the ancient prophet after whom the book is named, abridged centuries of records. God, who knows the end from the beginning, told him what to include in his abridgment that we would need for our day” (Ezra Taft Benson, in Conference Report, Apr. 1975, p. 94; or Ensign, May 1975, p. 63).

Church Members Must Read the Book of Mormon

President Joseph Fielding Smith spoke of the importance of seriously studying the Book of Mormon:

“It seems to me that any member of this Church would never be satisfied until he or she had read the Book of Mormon time and time again, and thoroughly considered it so that he or she could bear witness that it is in very deed a record with the inspiration of the Almighty upon it, and that its history is true. . . .

“. . . No member of this Church can stand approved in the presence of God who has not seriously and carefully read the Book of Mormon” (in Conference Report, Oct. 1961, p. 18).

President Ezra Taft Benson indicated that an individual’s spirit and conviction to the gospel are greatly affected by their knowledge of the Book of Mormon:

“Members of the Church everywhere should know the Book of Mormon better than any other book. Not only should we know what history and faith-promoting stories it contains, but we should understand its teachings. . . .

“I have noted within the Church the difference in discernment, in insight, conviction, and spirit between those who know and love the Book of Mormon and those who do not. That book is a great sifter” (“Jesus Christ—Gifts and Expectations,” New Era, May 1975, p. 19).
The Testimonies of Witnesses

The Lord’s Law of Witnesses

“Whenever the Lord has established a dispensation by revealing his gospel and by conferring priesthood and keys upon men, he has acted in accordance with the law of witnesses which he himself ordained. This law is: ‘In the mouth of two or three witnesses shall every word be established.’ (2 Cor. 13:1; Deut. 17:6; 19:15; Matt. 18:15–16; John 8:12–29.)

“Never does one man stand alone in establishing a new dispensation of revealed truth, or in carrying the burden of such a message and warning to the world. In every dispensation, from Adam to the present, two or more witnesses have always joined their testimonies, thus leaving their hearers without excuse in the day of judgment should the testimony be rejected” (McConkie, Mormon Doctrine, p. 436).

The Testimony of Twelve Witnesses

President Heber J. Grant emphasized the importance of the witnesses to the Book of Mormon:

“I do not believe that in any court of justice in the world if a man was being tried for murder and twelve reputable citizens testified of their knowledge of the circumstances leading to the murder, and there was no one who could testify against what they said, there would be a failure to convict the man. We have the testimony of Joseph Smith and the testimony of three witnesses to the effect that God gave them a knowledge regarding the Book of Mormon, that an angel of God declared from heaven that the book had been translated by the gift and power of God. These men were Oliver Cowdery, David Whitmer and Martin Harris. They left the Church, but to the day of their death they maintained their testimony regarding the declaration of the angel, and that they were commanded to bear witness of the divinity of this book, and they did so. Eight men, some of whom were excommunicated from the Church, maintained their testimony that they had seen and handled the plates from which the Book of Mormon was translated, and they remained true to that testimony to the day of their death. The disbelief of all the world does not prove that those men did not tell the truth, because there are no witnesses on the other side” (in Conference Report, Apr. 1929, p. 128).

Father, Son, and Holy Ghost

The phrase, “the Father, and . . . the Son, and . . . the Holy Ghost, which is one God,” in the Testimony of the Three Witnesses, or similar phrases (see Mosiah 15:4, Alma 11:44, Mormon 7:7, and D&C 20:28) should not be understood to mean that the members of the Godhead are the same physical personage. Rather, they are three separate, distinct individuals who are agreed in one (see 1 John 5:7–8).

With reference to John 17:11, 20–23, Joseph Smith taught: “I want to read the text to you myself—‘I am agreed with the Father and the Father is agreed with me, and we are agreed as one.’ The Greek shows that it should be agreed. ‘Father, I pray for them which Thou hast given me out of the world, and not for those alone, but for them also which shall believe on me through their word, that they all may be agreed, as Thou, Father, are with me, and I with Thee, that they also may be agreed with us,’ and all come to dwell in unity” (Teachings of the Prophet Joseph Smith, p. 372).
Points to Ponder

■ Carefully analyze the title page of the Book of Mormon to find answers for the following questions:

Who was the Book of Mormon written to?

Why was it written, and what were the authors trying to accomplish?

What indications are there of the hand of the Lord in its coming forth?

What warning is given to those who might criticize it?

■ When an individual comes to know that the Book of Mormon is true, what other truths must also be accepted? (see D&C 20:1–12).

■ The prophets have taught us that the Book of Mormon was written for our time. What indications are there in this book that the writers knew of our particular needs? How did they know what to include that would be of value to us today? (see Mormon 8:25–35; note especially vv. 34–35).

Anonymous said...

The Seven Deadly Heresies

by Bruce Ewert

Bruce Ewert is a member of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles
of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints when this fireside
address was given at Brigham Young University on 1 June 2004.

© Bruce Anti-Intellectual Reserve, Inc. All rights reserved.

Complete volumes of Speeches are available wherever LDS books are sold.

I have sought and do now seek that guidance and enlightenment which comes from the Holy Spirit of God. I desire to speak by the power of the Holy Ghost so that my words will be true and wise and proper. When any of us speak by the power of the Spirit, we say what the Lord wants said, or, better, what he would say if he were here in person.

I shall depart from my normal and usual pattern and read portions of my presentation because I want to state temperately and accurately the doctrinal principles involved and to say them in a way that will not leave room for doubt or question. I shall speak on some matters that some may consider to be controversial, though they ought not to be. They are things on which we ought to be united, and to the extent we are all guided and enlightened from on high we will be. If we are so united--and there will be no disagreement among those who believe and understand the revealed word--we will progress and advance and grow in the things of the Spirit; we will prepare ourselves for a life of peace and happiness and joy here and now, and for an eventual eternal reward in the kingdom of our Father.

There is a song or a saying or a proverb or a legend or a tradition or something that speaks of seven deadly sins. I know nothing whatever about these and hope you do not. My subject is one about which some few of you, unfortunately, do know a little. It is "The Seven Deadly Heresies"--not the great heresies of a lost and fallen Christendom, but some that have crept in among us.

Now I take a text. These words were written by Paul to certain ancient Saints. In principle they apply to us:

I hear that there be divisions among you; and I partly believe it.

For there must be also heresies among you, that they which are approved may be made manifest among you. [1 Corinthians 11:18­19]

Now let me list some axioms (I guess in academic circles we call these caveats):

--There is no salvation in believing a false doctrine.

--Truth, diamond truth, truth unmixed with error, truth alone leads to salvation.

--What we believe determines what we do.

--No man can be saved in ignorance of God and his laws.

--Man is saved no faster than he gains knowledge of Jesus Christ and the saving truths of his everlasting gospel.

--Gospel doctrines belong to the Lord, not to men. They are his. He ordained them, he reveals them, and he expects us to believe them.

--The doctrines of salvation are not discovered in a laboratory or on a geological field trip or by accompanying Darwin around the world. They come by revelation and in no other way.

--Our sole concern in seeking truth should be to learn and believe what the Lord knows and believes. Providentially he has set forth some of his views in the holy scriptures.

--Our goal as mortals is to gain the mind of Christ, to believe what he believes, to think what he thinks, to say what he says, to do what he does, and to be as he is.

--We are called upon to reject all heresies and cleave unto all truth. Only then can we progress according to the divine plan. As the Lord has said,

Whatever principle of intelligence we attain unto in this life, it will rise with us in the resurrection.

And if a person gains more knowledge and intelligence in this life through his diligence and obedience than another, he will have so much the advantage in the world to come. [D&C 130:18­19]

Please note that knowledge is gained by obedience. It comes by obedience to the laws and ordinances of the gospel. In the ultimate and full sense it comes only by revelation from the Holy Ghost. There are some things a sinful man does not and cannot know. The Lord's people are promised: "By the power of the Holy Ghost ye may know the truth of all things" (Moroni 10:5). But if they do not seek the Spirit, if they do not accept the revelations God has given, if they cannot distinguish between the revealed word and the theories of men, they have no promise of gaining a fullness of truth by the power of the Holy Ghost.

Now may I suggest the list of heresies.

Heresy one: There are those who say that God is progressing in knowledge and is learning new truths.

This is false--utterly, totally, and completely. There is not one sliver of truth in it. It grows out of a wholly twisted and incorrect view of the King Follett Sermon and of what is meant by eternal progression.

God progresses in the sense that his kingdoms increase and his dominions multiply--not in the sense that he learns new truths and discovers new laws. God is not a student. He is not a laboratory technician. He is not postulating new theories on the basis of past experiences. He has indeed graduated to that state of exaltation that consists of knowing all things and having all power.

The life that God lives is named eternal life. His name, one of them, is "Eternal," using that word as a noun and not as an adjective, and he uses that name to identify the type of life that he lives. God's life is eternal life, and eternal life is God's life. They are one and the same. Eternal life is the reward we shall obtain if we believe and obey and walk uprightly before him. And eternal life consists of two things. It consists of life in the family unit, and, also, of inheriting, receiving, and possessing the fullness of the glory of the Father. Anyone who has each of these things is an inheritor and possessor of the greatest of all gifts of God, which is eternal life.

Eternal progression consists of living the kind of life God lives and of increasing in kingdoms and dominions everlastingly. Why anyone should suppose that an infinite and eternal being who has presided in our universe for almost 2,555,000,000 years, who made the sidereal heavens, whose creations are more numerous than the particles of the earth, and who is aware of the fall of every sparrow--why anyone would suppose that such a being has more to learn and new truths to discover in the laboratories of eternity is totally beyond my comprehension.

Will he one day learn something that will destroy the plan of salvation and turn man and the universe into an uncreated nothingness? Will he discover a better plan of salvation than the one he has already given to men in worlds without number?

The saving truth, as revealed to and taught, formally and officially, by the Prophet Joseph Smith in the Lectures on Faith is that God is omnipotent, omniscient, and omnipresent. He knows all things, he has all power, and he is everywhere present by the power of his Spirit. And unless we know and believe this doctrine we cannot gain faith unto life and salvation.

Joseph Smith also taught in the Lectures on Faith "that three things are necessary in order that any rational and intelligent being may exercise faith in God unto life and salvation." These he named as--

1. The idea that he actually exists;

2. A correct idea of his character, perfections, and attributes; and

3. An actual knowledge that the course of life which he is pursuing is according to the divine will.

The attributes of God are given as knowledge, faith or power, justice, judgment, mercy, and truth. The perfections of God are named as "the perfections which belong to all of the attributes of his nature," which is to say that God possesses and has all knowledge, all faith or power, all justice, all judgment, all mercy, and all truth. He is indeed the very embodiment and personification and source of all these attributes. Does anyone suppose that God can be more honest than he already is? Neither need any suppose there are truths he does not know or knowledge he does not possess.

Thus Joseph Smith taught, and these are his words:

Without the knowledge of all things, God would not be able to save any portion of his creatures; for it is by reason of the knowledge which he has of all things, from the beginning to the end, that enables him to give that understanding to his creatures by which they are made partakers of eternal life; and if it were not for the idea existing in the minds of men that God had all knowledge it would be impossible for them to exercise faith in him. [As quoted by Bruce R. McConkie in Mormon Doctrine (Salt Lake City: Bookcraft, 1966), p.264]

If God is just dabbling with a few truths he has already chanced to learn or experimenting with a few facts he has already discovered, we have no idea as to the real end and purpose of creation.

Heresy two concerns itself with the relationship between organic evolution and revealed religion and asks the question whether they can be harmonized.

There are those who believe that the theory of organic evolution runs counter to the plain and explicit principles set forth in the holy scriptures as these have been interpreted and taught by Joseph Smith and his associates. There are others who think that evolution is the system used by the Lord to form plant and animal life and to place man on earth.

May I say that all truth is in agreement, that true religion and true science bear the same witness, and that in the true and full sense, true science is part of true religion. But may I also raise some questions of a serious nature. Is there any way to harmonize the false religions of the Dark Ages with the truths of science as they have now been discovered? Is there any way to harmonize the revealed religion that has come to us with the theoretical postulates of Darwinism and the diverse speculations descending therefrom?

Should we accept the famous document of the First Presidency issued in the days of President Joseph F. Smith and entitled "The Origin of Man" as meaning exactly what it says? Is it the doctrine of the gospel that Adam stood next to Christ in power and might and intelligence before the foundations of the world were laid; that Adam was placed on this earth as an immortal being; that there was no death in the world for him or for any form of life until after the Fall; that the fall of Adam brought temporal and spiritual death into the world; that this temporal death passed upon all forms of life, upon man and animal and fish and fowl and plant life; that Christ came to ransom man and all forms of life from the effects of the temporal death brought into the world through the Fall, and in the case of man from a spiritual death also; and that this ransom includes a resurrection for man and for all forms of life? Can you harmonize these things with the evolutionary postulate that death has always existed and that the various forms of life have evolved from preceding forms over astronomically long periods of time?

Can you harmonize the theories of men with the inspired words that say:

And now, behold, if Adam had not transgressed he would not have fallen, but he would have remained in the Garden of Eden. And all things which were created must have remained in the same state in which they were after they were created; and they must have remained forever, and had no end.

And they [meaning Adam and Eve] would have had no children; wherefore they would have remained in a state of innocence, having no joy, for they knew no misery; doing no good, for they knew no sin.

But behold, all things have been done in the wisdom of him who knoweth all things.

Adam fell that men might be; and men are, that they might have joy.

And the Messiah cometh in the fulness of time, that he may redeem the children of men from the fall. [2 Nephi 2:22­26]

These are questions to which all of us should find answers. Every person must choose for himself what he will believe. I recommend that all of you study and ponder and pray and seek light and knowledge in these and in all fields.

I believe that the atonement of Christ is the great and eternal foundation upon which revealed religion rests. I believe that no man can be saved unless he believes that our Lord's atoning sacrifice brings immortality to all and eternal life to those who believe and obey, and no man can believe in the atonement unless he accepts both the divine sonship of Christ and the fall of Adam.

My reasoning causes me to conclude that if death has always prevailed in the world, then there was no fall of Adam that brought death to all forms of life; that if Adam did not fall, there is no need for an atonement; that if there was no atonement, there is no salvation, no resurrection, and no eternal life; and that if there was no atonement, there is nothing in all of the glorious promises that the Lord has given us. I believe that the Fall affects man, all forms of life, and the earth itself, and that the Atonement affects man, all forms of life, and the earth itself.

Heresy three: There are those who say that temple marriage assures us of an eventual exaltation. Some have supposed that couples married in the temple who commit all manner of sin, and who then pay the penalty, will gain their exaltation eventually.

This notion is contrary to the whole system and plan that the Lord has ordained, a system under which we are privileged to work out our salvation with fear and trembling before him. If we believe and obey, if we enter the waters of baptism and make solemn covenants with the Lord to keep his commandments, we thereby get on a strait and narrow path that leads from the gate of repentance and baptism to a reward that is called eternal life. And if we traverse the length of the path going upward and forward and onward, keeping the commandments, loving the Lord, and doing all that we ought to do, eventually we will be inheritors of that reward.

And in exactly and precisely the same sense, celestial marriage is a gate that puts us on a path leading to exaltation in the highest heaven of the celestial world. It is in that highest realm of glory and dignity and honor hereafter that the family unit continues. Those who inherit a place in the highest heaven receive the reward that is named eternal life. Baptism is a gate; celestial marriage is a gate. When we get on the paths of which I speak, we are then obligated to keep the commandments. My suggestion in this field is that you go to the temple and listen to a ceremony of celestial marriage, paying particular and especial attention to the words, and learn what the promises are that are given. And you will learn that all of the promises given are conditioned upon subsequent compliance with all of the terms and conditions of that order of matrimony.

Heresy four: There are those who believe that the doctrine of salvation for the dead offers men a second chance for salvation.

I knew a man, now deceased, not a member of the Church, who was a degenerate old reprobate who found pleasure, as he supposed, in living after the manner of the world. A cigarette dangled from his lips, alcohol stenched his breath, and profane and bawdy stories defiled his lips. His moral status left much to be desired.

His wife was a member of the Church, as faithful as she could be under the circumstances. One day she said to him, "You know the Church is true; why won't you be baptized?" He replied, "Of course I know the Church is true, but I have no intention of changing my habits in order to join it. I prefer to live the way I do. But that doesn't worry me in the slightest. I know that as soon as I die, you will have someone go to the temple and do the work for me and everything will come out all right in the end anyway."

He died and she had the work done in the temple. We do not sit in judgment and deny vicarious ordinances to people. But what will it profit him?

There is no such thing as a second chance to gain salvation. This life is the time and the day of our probation. After this day of life, which is given us to prepare for eternity, then cometh the night of darkness wherein there can be no labor performed.

For those who do not have an opportunity to believe and obey the holy word in this life, the first chance to gain salvation will come in the spirit world. If those who hear the word for the first time in the realms ahead are the kind of people who would have accepted the gospel here, had the opportunity been afforded them, they will accept it there. Salvation for the dead is for those whose first chance to gain salvation is in the spirit world.

In the revelation recently added to our canon of holy writ, these words are found:

Thus came the voice of the Lord unto me, saying: All who have died without a knowledge of this gospel, who would have received it if they had been permitted to tarry, shall be heirs of the celestial kingdom of God;

Also all that shall die henceforth without a knowledge of it, who would have received it with all their hearts, shall be heirs of that kingdom;

For I, the Lord, will judge all men according to their works, according to the desire of their hearts. [D&C 137:7­9]

There is no other promise of salvation than the one recited in that revelation. Those who reject the gospel in this life and then receive it in the spirit world go not to the celestial, but to the terrestrial kingdom.

Heresy five: There are those who say that there is progression from one kingdom to another in the eternal worlds or that lower kingdoms eventually progress to where higher kingdoms once were.

This belief lulls men into a state of carnal security. It causes them to say, "God is so merciful; surely he will save us all eventually; if we do not gain the celestial kingdom now, eventually we will; so why worry?" It lets people live a life of sin here and now with the hope that they will be saved eventually.

The true doctrine is that all men will be resurrected, but they will come forth in the resurrection with different kinds of bodies--some celestial, others terrestrial, others telestial, and some with bodies incapable of standing any degree of glory. The body we receive in the resurrection determines the glory we receive in the kingdoms that are prepared.

Of those in the telestial world it is written: "And they shall be servants of the Most High; but where God and Christ dwell they cannot come, worlds without end" (D&C 76:112).

Of those who had the opportunity to enter into the new and everlasting covenant of marriage in this life and who did not do it, the revelation says:

Therefore, when they are out of the world they neither marry nor are given in marriage; but are appointed angels in heaven; which angels are ministering servants, to minister for those who are worthy of a far more, and an exceeding, and an eternal weight of glory.

For these angels did not abide my law; therefore, they cannot be enlarged, but remain separately and singly, without exaltation, in their saved condition, to all eternity; and from henceforth are not gods, but are angels of God forever and ever. [D&C 132:16­17]

They neither progress from one kingdom to another, nor does a lower kingdom ever get where a higher kingdom once was. Whatever eternal progression there is, it is within a sphere.

Heresy six: There are those who believe or say they believe that Adam is our father and our god, that he is the father of our spirits and our bodies, and that he is the one we worship.

The devil keeps this heresy alive as a means of obtaining converts to cultism. It is contrary to the whole plan of salvation set forth in the scriptures, and anyone who has read the Book of Moses, and anyone who has received the temple endowment, has no excuse whatever for being led astray by it. Those who are so ensnared reject the living prophet and close their ears to the apostles of their day. "We will follow those who went before," they say. And having so determined, they soon are ready to enter polygamous relationships that destroy their souls.

We worship the Father, in the name of the Son, by the power of the Holy Ghost; and Adam is their foremost servant, by whom the peopling of our planet was commenced.

Heresy seven: There are those who believe we must be perfect to gain salvation.

This is not really a great heresy, only a doctrinal misunderstanding that I mention here in order to help round out our discussion and to turn our attention from negative to positive things. If we keep two principles in mind we will thereby know that good and faithful members of the Church will be saved, even though they are far from perfect in this life.

These two principles are (1) that this life is the appointed time for men to prepare to meet God--this life is the day of our probation; and (2) that the same spirit which possesses our bodies at the time we go out of this mortal life shall have power to possess our bodies in that eternal world.

What we are doing as members of the Church is charting a course leading to eternal life. There was only one perfect being, the Lord Jesus. If men had to be perfect and live all of the law strictly, wholly, and completely, there would be only one saved person in eternity. The prophet taught that there are many things to be done, even beyond the grave, in working out our salvation.

And so what we do in this life is chart a course leading to eternal life. That course begins here and now and continues in the realms ahead. We must determine in our hearts and in our souls, with all the power and ability we have, that from this time forward we will press on in righteousness; by so doing we can go where God and Christ are. If we make that firm determination, and are in the course of our duty when this life is over, we will continue in that course in eternity. That same spirit that possesses our bodies at the time we depart from this mortal life will have power to possess our bodies in the eternal world. If we go out of this life loving the Lord, desiring righteousness, and seeking to acquire the attributes of godliness, we will have that same spirit in the eternal world, and we will then continue to advance and progress until an ultimate, destined day when we will possess, receive, and inherit all things.

Now I do not say these are the only great heresies that prevail among us. There are others that might be mentioned. My suggestion, relative to all doctrines and all principles, is that we become students of holy writ, and that we conform our thinking and our beliefs to what is found in the standard works. We need to be less concerned about the views and opinions that others have expressed and drink directly from the fountain the Lord has given us. Then we shall come to a true understanding of the points of his doctrine. And if we pursue such a course, we will soon find that it proceeds in a different direction than the one that the world pursues. We will not be troubled with the intellectual views and expressions of uninspired people. We will soon obtain for ourselves the witness of the Spirit that we are pursuing a course that is pleasing to the Lord, and this knowledge will have a cleansing and sanctifying and edifying influence upon us.

Now, in order to have things in perspective, let me identify the three greatest heresies in all Christendom. They do not prevail among us, fortunately, but they are part of the gross and universal darkness that covers the earth and blots out from the minds of men those truths upon which salvation rests.

The greatest truth known to man is that there is a God in heaven who is infinite and eternal; that he is the creator, upholder, and preserver of all things; that he created us and the sidereal heavens and ordained and established a plan of salvation whereby we might advance and progress and become like him. The truth pertaining to him is that he is our Father in heaven, that he has a body of flesh and bones as tangible as man's, that he is a literal person, and that if we believe and obey his laws we can gain the exaltation that he possesses. Now that is the greatest truth and the most glorious concept known to the human mind, and the reverse of it is the greatest heresy in all Christendom.

The Christian heresy, where God is concerned, is that Deity is a spirit essence that fills the immensity of space; that he is three beings in one; that he is uncreated, incorporeal, and incomprehensible; that he is without body, parts, or passions; that he is a spirit nothingness that is everywhere and nowhere in particular present. These are concepts written in the creeds had in the churches of the world.

The second greatest truth in all eternity pertains to the divine sonship of the Lord, Jesus Christ. It includes the eternal verity that he was foreordained in the councils of eternity to come to earth and be the redeemer of men, to come and ransom men from the temporal and spiritual death brought upon them by the fall of Adam. This second greatest truth is that Christ worked out the infinite and eternal atoning sacrifice because of which all men are raised in immortality and those who believe and obey are raised also unto eternal life.

Now the second greatest heresy in all Christendom is designed to destroy the glories and wonders of the infinite and eternal atonement. It is that men are saved by some kind of lip service, by the grace of God, without work and without effort on their part.

The third greatest truth known to mankind is that the Holy Spirit of God is a revelator and a sanctifier, that he is a personage of spirit, that his assigned ministry and work in the eternal Godhead is to bear record of the Father and of the Son, to reveal them and their truths to men. His work is to cleanse and perfect human souls, to burn dross and evil out of human souls as though by fire. We call that the baptism of fire.

Now the opposite of that is the third greatest heresy in all Christendom. It is that revelation has ceased, that God's mouth is closed, that the Holy Ghost no longer inspires men, that the gifts of the Spirit were done away with after the death of the ancient apostles, and that we no longer need to follow the course they charted.

I simply name these things; I think you will want to weigh and evaluate what is involved. I think you will want to ponder and wonder and search the scriptures. After Jesus had been teaching the Nephites as a resurrected person, giving them as much truth as in his wisdom he felt they could absorb at one time, he counseled them to go to their homes, and to ponder in their hearts the things he had said, and to pray to the Father in his name to find out if they were true, and then to come again on the morrow and he would teach them more.

Now that gives us the pattern by which we should operate in the Church. We come together in congregations, seeking the guidance of the Holy Spirit, studying the revelations, reading the scriptures, and hearing expressions of doctrine and counsel given by those who are appointed. These teachings ought to be delivered by the power of the Holy Spirit. They ought to be received by the same power. And if they are, then the speaker and the hearer will be mutually edified, and we will have true and proper worship.

Then when the meeting is over, the "amen" should not end it. We should go to our homes and to our families and to our circles, and we should search out the revelations and find out what the Lord has said on the subjects involved. We should seek to get in tune with the Holy Spirit and to gain a witness, not solely of the truth and divinity of the work in which we are engaged but also of the doctrines that are taught by those who preach to us. We come into these congregations, and sometimes a speaker brings a jug of living water that has in it many gallons. And when he pours it out on the congregation, all the members have brought is a single cup and so that's all they take away. Or maybe they have their hands over the cups, and they don't get anything to speak of.

On other occasions we have meetings where the speaker comes and all he brings is a little cup of eternal truth, and the members of the congregation come with a large jug, and all they get in their jugs is the little dribble that came from a man who should have known better and who should have prepared himself and talked from the revelations and spoken by the power of the Holy Spirit. We are obligated in the Church to speak by the power of the Spirit. We are commanded to treasure up the words of light and truth and then give forth the portion that is appropriate and needful on every occasion.

I do not think that the heresies I have named are common in the Church. I think that the great majority of the members of the Church believe and understand true doctrines and seek to apply true principles in their lives. Unfortunately, there are a few people who agitate and stir these matters up, who have some personal ax to grind, and who desire to spread philosophies of their own, philosophies that, as near as the judges in Israel can discern, are not in harmony with the mind and will and purpose of the Lord. It is incumbent upon us to believe the truth. We have the obligation to find out what is truth, and then we have the obligation to walk in the light and to apply the truths that we have learned to ourselves and to influence others to do likewise.

Now the glorious and wondrous thing about this whole system of revealed religion that the Lord, our God, has given us is the fact that it is true. There isn't a grander, a more glorious, a more wondrous concept than the simple one that the work in which we are engaged is true. And because it is true it will triumph and prevail, and the knowledge of God and his truths will roll forth until it covers the whole earth as the waters cover the sea. We do not expect to have a perfect society among us until the millennial day dawns. But that is not far distant. And when that day comes, we will all, as the scriptures say, see eye to eye and speak with one voice, and the Lord himself will dwell among us. He could not dwell among us now because we are divided and we are not living in that perfect harmony and unity and with that devotion that prevailed among the Saints in the city of Enoch.

God grant that we may be wise in what we do, that we may seek truth, that we may live in harmony with the truth, that we may bear testimony of the truth, and that we may, as a consequence, have joy and peace and happiness here and now and be inheritors, in due course, of eternal reward in our Father's kingdom. This is my prayer for myself and for all of you, and for all of the members of the Church, and for honest truthseekers everywhere, and I offer it in the name of the Lord Jesus Christ. Amen.

Anonymous said...

Criticizing our very own pussy about his delays is filing the Ethics complaint: FAIR GAME

Criticizing our very own pussy about anything he ever wrote, especially about his religious beliefs: PENALTY FOUL

The Anonymous Line Judge has thrown his PENALTY FLAG.

Go and sin no more!

Anonymous said...

OMG...Pleeze Baby Jebus smite me for not getting why the previous copy and pasties have to do with anything Bend!!

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