Bend Bulletin Reporter FIRED For Not Hyping Bend Bubble?

200+ comments = pagination :-)

Whoa!

If you read here regularly, you know I'm sort of in Chronicling The Bubble mode now, not in Convincer mode anymore. And I do have some interesting stuff this week, but Holy Shit! This was posted over on BendBB, posted by "Bullethead"

Interesting week in The Bulletin's business section. First, The Source comes out with this blurb on Thursday ...

Quote:

TV isn't the only one getting into the act. A little bird told us that a reporter across town, well known for his real estate coverage, walked out when editors insisted that he spin his latest story to emphasize the positive side of the housing slump. Oh, well, what's one more fairy tale in makebelieveland?

That caused Bulletin Executive Editor John Costa to fan his line editors through the newsroom to assure everyone that said real estate reporter had really been fired for lying about being sick. Which didn't play well with a lot of the staff, because this email had already made the rounds for a couple of days ...

Quote:

Charlene: (Apparently meaning Sharlene Crabtree, the Bulletin's Human Resources Director) Here's my response to the March 4 Separation Notice: 3-4-2008 I did not "lie about being sick." I took two days off after an article I wrote for the Feb. 26 paper was edited by my supervisor, Business Editor John Stearns, in such a way as to remove any facts or opinions that tended to disagree with a public speaker's rosy predictions for the local real estate industry. As I told him, my intent was to carefully consider why that particularly editing job, which I viewed as dishonest, upset me, and to calm down enough to rationally discuss the issue with him. When I returned, I was not "questioned about the days off" -- I initiated a meeting with Mr. Stearns and told him, without prompting, that I had not been physically ill but needed two "mental health days," in my phrasing, to determine how I should best discuss my future with the paper with him in a calm, rational way, rather than forcing the issue when I was angry and confused. I told him during that meeting on Feb. 28 that I felt that the editing job on my Feb. 26 story was part of a pattern of editing that included misleading headlines, sources being banned from my coverage, story ideas getting spiked, and odd pre-story cajolling, all of which seemed designed by the executive editor to generate more favorable coverage of the local real estate market than I have thought was best in the two years I have been assigned to cover it for the paper. I further told him that, although I believed that the articles I had written for the paper were as thorough and as accurate as I could make them, the utter hack job that was done on my Feb. 26 story had led me to conclude that the paper was not willing to cover the industry as honestly as it should, given that the housing market -- which is economically important to the paper -- is now in the midst of a steep downturn. I asked to be shifted to another beat, including others that had been identified by the executive editor as important to the paper's overall coverage, such as the business of medicine, or the banking industry. I told him I felt that I would be allowed to cover those beats "straight," without what I perceived to be the editors' emotional desire to slant coverage of the real estate market. He denied that the paper's editors intended to color the news and criticized me for taking the days off, rather than confronting him with my concerns immediately. I told him again that I felt that I needed the time to clarify my own thoughts before I attempted to have a discussion with him, but if he felt the days weren't covered by our sick leave or vacation policy, I would be happy to take them as unpaid time off. Stearns told me on March 3 that he had discussed my request to change beats with the executive editor. I don't know what was discussed in that meeting, but I was fired the next day. In conclusion, there was no violation of the ethics code. I was quite honest about my reasons for not coming to work for two days, and was, I suspect, fired for stating those reasons to my supervisor. Thank you for allowing me the opportunity to respond.

According to a quick look at the edit trail in The Bulletin's computer system, apparently what set him off -- finally -- was an edit job on a story on Dana Bratton's pie-in-the-sky real estate "forecast" speech last Monday that scrubbed paraphrases from Bill Valentine and Brooks Resources honchos Kirk Schueler and Mike Hollern, all saying that they think the downturn is going to last a whole lot longer than the April 25 turnaround date that Bratton ladled out to the adoring real estate crowd at The Riverhouse.

That pesky stuff got axed on orders from Costa, who told his business editor to "stick to what was said at the meeting." Out, too, went a section that pointed out that the ridiculous predictions that Bratton made last year of a quick RE turnaround also -- uh -- kinda failed to pan out.

Which left the good readers of Bend with the vision of Dana Bratton, grand real estate prognosticator, predicting that everything will be hunky-dory by May, contradicted only slightly by those notorious pessimists at the National Association of Realtors, who actually suggested that sales might not turn around until late this year.

Could it be an accident that all of this is happening a week after the Realtors and Builders announced their "Best Time in 20 Years to Buy a House" campaign?

Complete with plans for a good, old-fashioned media blitz? Journalism at its finest, and right here in River City.

Some later supposition reveals the writer of the piece is David Fisher for the piece titled "Housing forecast: It’ll only get better ".

If we EVER needed more damning evidence of the WHOREHOUSE EDITORIAL ETHICS of The Bulletin, we need look no further than this, still unconfirmed, story. And if the Bulletin stays true to form, we won't hear ANY of the story from them. And maybe we shouldn't.

My opinion? This thing is dead real. It's either real, or an extremely convincing hoax. The fact that it's addressed to the HR dept, and her name is misspelled... I don't know. Most hoaxers don't throw in little idiosyncratic things like that. Also, it's not addressed to Costa is convincing. This thing just "feels" authentic to me.

We'll know by simply monitoring Bulletin stories, and if we don't see Fisher pieces within a few days, we'll know this is not a vacation.

Maybe this should come as absolutely NO SURPRISE that The Bulletin is a bought & paid for WHORE of local RE interests. Whether this Fisher story is true or not, we KNOW that is true. I think it is true, and that Fisher hit his Popeye Moment, and he had all he can stands, and he can't stands no more.

Every decent person cannot lie without end without turning into some sort of monster, as this picture of Pamela Hulce Andrews clearly shows:

Pamela Hulce Andrews: "Best Buyers Market in 20 Years, My Precious!"

Personally, I am very interested in whether this Fisher piece is true. If anyone has any hard evidence, please feel free to submit it to the UNCENSORED COMMENTS area.

Speaking of Hulce WHOREHOUSE Andrews, and her totally bereft of standards shithole "Business Newspaper" (RE advertising cum bucket), here is her latest sellout statement:

Over in Prineville, where some media has reported that the town is in dyer straights, Real Estate Broker Shauna Zinn predicts that Crook County's recovery will come sooner than what is predicted for Deschutes County. She suggested that that are of the region is in the process of getting to the end of their inventory and renewed interest is already heating up.

The message is clear: buy real estate, buy real estate now. Of course realtors are going to pursue that message, they make a living selling properties. What else would they say? Don't buy just wait and see what happens?

Despite the self serving message, we like it a lot. If we can live through this tight economy with hope and a positive outlook our economy will be, as Bratton says, on the front line of leading this country out of the market decline.

My God.

If your eyes have rolled too far back in your head to continue reading (or living), seek medical attention now.

And Andrews, a dyer is "someone whose job is to dye cloth", OK, it's DIRE STRAITS (straights?). That is some forbiddingly stupid shit.

And Hulce Andrews gives away the farm when she ADMITS that Realtors have a 100% SLANTED view of the market, and that she sees ZERO PROBLEM with using them as her exclusive source for RE news. The Bulletin also uses Realtors with 100% "pie-in-the-sky" outlooks, but they FIRE YOUR ASS for printing anything else. Cascade Business Buttbangers would never fire someone for doing that... they'd never be hired in the first place. Cross the Buttbangers off your list Fisher.

Yes... and our "positive outlook" will be our saving grace in this debacle, according to the eternally deluded Andrews. Maybe she should go to Citicorp in New York and suggest her philosophy on turning things around.

So where is The Only Place You Will Read The Unvarnished Truth About The Local Real Estate Market? Well, I'll let each person answer that for themselves, but rest assured that the Fisher story will never surface in this town in "Established Media". The Powers That Be are still imbibing the Kool-Aid, and they'll FIRE anyone who even thinks we should stop.

Unbelievable.

Another good nugg posted on BendBB was this, by "MST":

As of today: Solds for Feb. all residential types:
69 Sold
315k Median
140 days on the market
1962 med sq ft
1907 active listings
Interesting, so far in March, 17 sold at 260k median.
Sure that will change since the median of pendings is 339k.

So, now I can post a more accurate depiction of Months Inventory:

Months Inventory, Y-axis inverted.

This throttles back inventory to a still mind-numbing 27.3 months. Remember that the RE industry admits that 6 months is "Normal". So draw a horizontal line at 6, and it is easy to see that Dana "He's A Man" Bratton is still attempting to reflate this souffle, despite all facts to the contrary.

And you might think, "Oh no... here comes another rant on CACB plummeting into the single digits.", and you'd be WRONG! Well, OK, maybe you're a little right... cuz that badboy is PLUNGING! $9.78/sh, with a fresh new 52 week low of $9.48. Had to go back 5 YEARS to see the prices we're seeing today:

CACB, 5 years

You can see in a 10 year chart that CACB has vaulted from around $7, to the current $9.78 in the short span of 1 decade. Is it for this BRUTALLY LOW 3.4% annualized return that Patty Moss' ass will be waxed? I doubt it, besides I'm sure if you add in the ridiculously low dividend yield, and reinvest, you'll get something better. But as any Bendite knows... NO ONE here holds ANYTHING A DECADE. Moss will get her ass waxed for the recent 70%+ beating someday...

Anyway... CACB played second fiddle to Clear Choice in the plummet parade this week. CCHN finished out the week with a jaw-dropping 27% PLUNGE on Friday.

CCHN, 3 year chart

WTF? What's going on there? All I know is CCHN is building a masoleum to their greatness just East of their current location, adjacent to an old folks home, a park, and an old, established neighborhood. Why the hell they thought this would be a good location is beyond me.

I don't know.... but I'm wondering if the Street is becoming a little concerned that the single largest asset of this company is now going to be a building that will sit largely empty.

Just goes to show: Almost everyone was swept away by the idea that they should real estate-ize their Bend business, even health insurers. You know the large base of doctors that own this dog were frothing at the mouth to have CCHN build this monstrosity.

More delusional bullshit:

Here's another comical piece that just epitomizes the still deluded state of the RE industry:

Realty Viewpoint: The Bubble Is In Housing Prognosticators

by Blanche Evans

An index that has been tracking new home sales since 2005 says its historical data dates as far back as 1830. Winans International has patented a combination of housing studies to provide a continuing data set without the scaling and gapping problems found in other studies, it says.

The index found that from its all-time record of 296,000 set in March of 2007, housing prices have declined -16.8% to its current level of 246,300. That's the worst price decline in U.S. new home prices since the 17-month decline of -17.8% from May 1969 to October 1970, says the index.

It could get worse. The worst decline of U.S. new home prices in the last 100 years was the 55% decline from 1929 to 1932 during the Great Depression.

This is just the latest in predictions from housing prognosticators, who are looking backward not forward.

We all know that housing price predictions are about handicapping stocks, so it's no surprise that investors can only get a sniff of what's happening. To get to the meat, they usually have to buy the full report. So the bottom line is, it's about sales and sales improve in a climate of fear.

If you don't want to pay to be scared, you can look at the National Association of Home Builders' useful Housing Information Center. There you can find essentially the same information for free.

The latest NAHB forecast is for housing sales to drop 22 percent in 2008. Housing is in its "deepest, most rapid downswing since the Great Depression," says David Seiders, chief economist for the NAHB. "More and more of the country is now involved in the contraction, where six months ago it was not as widespread."

That sobering tidbit was just verified by the Federal Reserve Beige Book report in which eight of the twelve Fed regional bank districts reported a "weakening in the pace of business activity."

And the other four reported "subdued, slow or modest growth."

The housing sector isn't going to see improvement any time soon. All 12 districts reported overall drops in home prices, suggesting that the mortgage market flu is airborne. The reason is tight credit, where standards are being set making it harder to obtain a mortgage loan. That's causing sales to slow down even in healthy markets.

However, there are reasons to hope things will get better for sellers and buyers. The Beige Book noted that foot traffic is increasing to homes for sale, as buyers sniff around for bargains.

The national malaise has caused some areas to be undervalued, according to a report by National City Corporation and Global Insight. That report found that 88 percent of 330 housing markets surveyed showed price declines but that translates into improved affordability.

The most overvalued city wasn't in California or Florida, for a change. That dubious honor went to Bend, Oregon, where prices were judged to be overvalued by 59 percent. On the other end of the spectrum, homebuyers can find serious bargains in Louisiana and Texas. Dallas, for example, is undervalued by 30 percent.

So you see -- all the prognostication in the world doesn't matter. It boils down to what's happening in the local marketplace.

Published: March 7, 2008

Funny, that this piece is EXACTLY what local RE types are trying to convince you is TOTALLY FALSE. You see, good old Blanche Evans has a national scope in trying to pump up this debacle, and doesn't give a shit about whomping on Bend, if it helps the other 329 MSA's. That's why the National City report about Bend STILL being the most overvalued city in the US is called a "DUBIOUS HONOR" by Evans.

So now, we have the novel situation where National RE Pump-N-dumpers are totally at odds with local Whackos like Ruben Garmyn:

Ruben Garmyn, the principal broker of Prudential High Desert Realty in Bend, disagreed with the report’s assessment. Garmyn believes most national reports miss the boat on Bend’s economy because they don’t take into consideration the impact on local real estate of a steady influx of retirees and professional workers who choose to live in Bend but commute or telecommute to jobs outside the region.

“Investors and baby boomers and commuters built up the (housing) market, but boomers and commuters are still coming here,” said Garmyn. “Yes, we are going through a downturn, partly driven by the media, but we are showing lots of property to potential buyers.”

Garmyn said his office is seeing more sales activity compared with the last three months.

Hey.... wait a minute. Did he say sales activity is picking up? Damn! Garmyn has discovered a RE trend in Deschutes County that has managed to remain hidden, lo these past 100,000 years:

Real Estate activity in Bend picks up in the Spring!

I stand humbled before mental giants like Garmyn. He should start a consulting firm with insights like that.

Anyway, I find it hilarious that "National RE" has decided to throw "Bend RE" under the bus with this National City report. They are actually saying the Nat City report IS LEGIT, and that LOCAL MARKETS really determine whether a market is overvalued or not, and that some, like Dallas, are really cheap. AND that some, LIKE BEND, are horrendously overvalued.

Bend RE types take on this?

No, no, no, no, no, no! This report, while it may be right for ALL 229 OTHER MSA's in the country, has got Bend ALL WRONG. No, no, no, no. We've got old geezers, 600 golf courses, and these really big hills & stuff. You just can't find that sort of stuff anywhere else!

Now, as for JOBS, and stuff that allows you to actually Live Here... no, we don't have that, but we really don't need it either. Internet & airports take care of that problem, and people using those 2 things accounts for 498% of our workforce.

No, National City has got us all wrong. We're EXEMPT FROM ANALYSIS, cuz we got geezers, spring-loaded coffins that eject corpses straight into the Deschutes River & stuff. Housing prices & the influx of old people has a strong positive correlation, as you can see from Sun City AZ, or any mortuary.

OK, enough whomping the local idiot Realtors. Well, almost.

You know what really bothers me about the local RE Keep Prices Artificially High mentality? It's that They Do Not Care Whether High Prices Keep Normal Working People From EVER BEING ABLE TO AFFORD HOMES HERE OR NOT.

It is just an ingrained human need to own their own home. Hell, it's one of the things that makes this country great. The vast ownership of homes by MILLIONS of Americans is one of the American Quality Of Life components that other countries pine for.

And if you work hard, and save & are of reasonable intelligence, in this Country, you SHOULD BE ABLE to buy your own home.

But local RE does NOT want this to happen. They do not think of a home as the last bastion of human refuge from The World. No. To them it is a WHOREHOUSE. Your home is a WHORE, and They are The Pimps, and they take a cut on each sale, and FUCK YOU & your sentimental homeowner bullshit.

They WANT prices to stay high & UNAFFORDABLE. That is why the Nat City report is being poo-poo'd. They DO NOT give a fuck about the effects of a town full of people who are working their asses off to achieve the American Dream AND ARE FAILING because they do not, and will NEVER make enough money to achieve it.

No, they are Pimps & if the Ho's prices are smacked down, they can't support their fuckin sleazy-ass Escalade. They do not give a fuck about anyone but themselves.

You & your home are WHORES to be bought & sold until you are worn out & useless to them.

You watch: When Bend is a worn out useless fuckin crack whore of a town, the pimps will unceremoniously throw us out of the Escalade & pee in our faces, as they drive away from this place forever.

OK, rant concluded, but seething.... for now.

Mortgage market needs $1 trillion, FBR estimates

Without that, prices of securities will fall, raising interest rates on home loans

The answer is that the mortgage market is short of roughly $1 trillion in capital, according to Paul Miller, an analyst at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey.

The modern mortgage market works with lots of leverage, or borrowed money. Investors, including hedge funds and mortgage real estate investment trusts, buy mortgage securities, but finance a lot of their purchases with this leverage.

FBR's Miller estimates that $11 trillion of outstanding U.S. mortgage debt is supported with roughly $587 billion of equity. That's a leverage ratio of 19 to one.

But last year's subprime meltdown has undermined confidence in the home loans that back these mortgage securities. Now the banks that finance most of these leveraged mortgage investments have started to pull back and impose margin calls, demanding more cash or collateral to back their loans.

This has sparked a de-leveraging cycle in which some highly leveraged mortgage investors have to sell assets to meet margin calls. Forced selling pushes prices lower, sparking more margin calls, which in turn produces more selling and even lower prices.

When debt prices fall, yields rise, and that's what's happening to mortgage securities - even those backed by government sponsored entities including Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which are considered the safest.

"The immediate impact is that [interest rates on] 30-year fixed-rate mortgages will have to increase relative to Treasuries," FBR's Miller wrote in a note to clients on Friday. "That is why we are experiencing pressure on mortgage rates despite the downward movement on the 10-year bonds."

Rates on 30-year fixed mortgages usually follow the movement of 10-year Treasury bonds, but this relationship has broken down as de-leveraging in the financial system takes hold.

The difference, or spread, between yields on "agency" mortgage securities backed by Fannie and Freddie and those on Treasuries rose to a 23-year high this week, Miller noted.

"It is the leverage game playing havoc with the system," he wrote.

There are two ways to resolve the problem. Either inject $1 trillion of new capital into the mortgage market, or allow prices of mortgage securities to fall (and interest rates on home loans to climb), Miller said.

The mortgage market won't be able to raise $1 trillion, so prices have to fall, he warned.

"There is no quick fix here," the analyst said. "It will take about six to 12 months for the pricing pressure to alleviate on these mortgage assets."

"This will be painful, but it must be allowed to play out in an orderly fashion in order for the mortgage market to achieve equilibrium," Miller concluded.

Alistair Barr is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.

Yup. That's a Cool TRILLION to bail out this thing. A few months ago, it was a scant few hundred billion. Now they're using The T Word.

Note that they say that the last investment refuge is Govt treasuries. Too bad they can't start denominating these in Euros or Yen. Maybe TIP's are a good idea...

And unless you've been in a cave, you've noticed that the recent jobs data finally convinced the last holdouts that we are actually in a recession:

U.S. payrolls fall by 63,000 in February

Drop in labor force moves jobless rate to 4.8%

By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch

Last update: 11:30 a.m. EST March 7, 2008

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- In the clearest suggestion yet of a recession, U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell by 63,000 in February, the second straight decline, the Labor Department reported Friday.

"Turn out the lights the party's over," wrote Joseph Brusuelas, U.S. chief economist for IDEAglobal. "We are in a recession."

It was the largest drop in payrolls since March 2003, when the economy was struggling through a jobless recovery.

The drop in payrolls was largely unexpected; economists were looking for a tepid gain of about 20,000 in the survey of business establishments. See Economic Calendar.

U.S. stock markets opened lower after the report, while bonds rose. See Market Snapshot.

Futures markets were pricing in an almost 100% chance of a three-quarters of a point cut in the federal funds target interest rate to 2.25%.

In addition to February's dismal result, payrolls for December and January were revised down by 46,000. Read the full report.

The unemployment rate fell unexpectedly to 4.8% in February from 4.9%, but the decline didn't reflect strength in the jobs market, but rather was due to a 450,000 decline in the labor force, the largest drop in nearly five years.

'The data suggest that laid-off workers are discouraged and are giving up the job hunt for now," wrote Stephen Gallagher, U.S. economist for Societe Generale.

Economists were expecting the jobless rate to climb to 5%.

According to the separate survey of households used to derive the jobless rate, employment fell by 255,000 in February. The labor participation rate fell to 65.9% from 66.1% in January. The employment rate fell to 62.7% from 62.9% and a peak of 63.4% in late 2006.

The job loss in January was revised to 22,000 from 17,000. In December, 41,000 net jobs were created, half the number estimated a month ago. Payrolls have declined by an average of 28,000 over the past three months, down from a gain of 80,000 or so a year ago.

Wage rise weak

Average hourly earnings rose 5 cents, or 0.3%, to $17.80 an hour. Average earnings have increased 3.7% over the past 12 months, less than the inflation rate.

Hiring was weak in most sectors in February. Private-sector payrolls fell by 101,000. Of 274 industries, 45.6% were adding jobs in February, the lowest percentage since August 2003. Of 84 manufacturing industries, 31% were hiring.

Manufacturing payrolls fell by 52,000, the most in five years. Construction jobs dropped by 39,000. Private services jobs dropped by 12,000, including 34,000 in retail, 12,000 in financial services, and 28,000 in temporary help services.

Job gains were restricted to government (up 38,000), health and education (up 30,000) and hospitality (up 21,000).

Total hours worked fell by 0.1%.

The weak report will likely add the chorus calling for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee will meet on March 18, but speculation is growing that the FOMC could lower rates before then to address the extremely dysfunctional credit markets, where even AAA securities are being sold off to raise cash.

On Friday, the Fed announced steps to provide more liquidity to markets. The regular auction of short-term funds will be boosted by $40 billion, and the Fed said it would lend an additional $100 billion with agency mortgage-backed securities as collateral.

Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of MarketWatch.

Yup, it's finally hitting Main Street. If you've been fired recently, remember to Thank your local banker, mortgage broker, and realtor. The housing bust is 100% responsible for The Beating We Are About To Receive.

As another aside, on the Placement Of Ultimate Responsibility For The Economic Pounding We Are Going To Endure, I would like to say that I do not blame Realtors, primarily. No. That honor goes to the financiers of this thing.

It's like a frat party. The people who Get The Party started are ultimately the people who made the Excesses possible. Sure, there were people who just happened across the party, wandered in, got drunk as hell & ended up killing themselves plowing into a tree, and they are fully responsible for their own demise (speculators, Realtors).

But without the origination of the party & the various required staples for getting it rolling: Numerous kegs, a place to party, and marketing far & wide, it never would have gotten rolling. THIS is the fault of the Money Men. They WANTED this to happen, and they made all the arrangements for it to happen. I blame them 50.1%

I blame the Rest, the speculators, transactors, associations, media and the rest collectively 49.9%. If you hopped into this party with the expressed purpose of Living It Up, and buying RE at inflated prices far beyond your own needs... well, then you deserve everything you get.

Just my 2 cents.

More banking nightmares:

Banks face "systemic margin call," $325 billion hit: JPM

By Walden SiewSat Mar 8, 9:24 AM ET

Wall Street banks are facing a "systemic margin call" that may deplete banks of $325 billion of capital due to deteriorating subprime U.S. mortgages, JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), said in a report late on Friday.

JPMorgan, which sent a default notice to Thornburg Mortgage Inc. (TMA.N) after the lender missed a $28 million margin call, said more default notices and margin calls were likely. The Carlyle Group's mortgage fund also failed to meet $37 million in margin calls this week.

"A systemic credit crunch is underway, driven primarily by bank writedowns for subprime mortgages," according to the report co-authored by analyst Christopher Flanagan. "We would characterize this situation as a systemic margin call."

The credit crisis that began about a year ago will likely intensify after Friday's weak February U.S. employment report "that most definitely signals recession," JPMorgan said.

Indeed, corporate bond spreads widened to a new record on Friday, surpassing levels seen in October 2002 during a boom in bankruptcies following the dot-com crash. U.S. employers cut payrolls in February for a second consecutive month, slashing 63,000 jobs, the biggest monthly job decline in nearly five years, the U.S. Labor Department reported on Friday.

"The weak February employment report points to an economy in recession," JPMorgan said.

The JPMorgan report included a revised bleaker forecast for subprime-related home prices. The bank now sees prices falling 30 percent, from its prior 25 percent forecast. Those prices have declined 14 percent since mid-2006, JPMorgan said.

The U.S. jobs results also came after the Federal Reserve expanded the amount of its short-term auctions to $100 billion in total in the central bank's latest effort to ease credit concerns. Ongoing concerns about bond insurers, known as monolines, and their effort to save their top ratings also are weighing on market sentiment.

Yup, banking is starting to UNRAVEL. Why? Well, the Why is clear, and almost dictated the title of this weeks post, "How To Be 100% Debt Free GUARANTEED, if your read this post".

What's the secret? What's this financial miracle? Can it be The Real Financial Holy Grail?

Yes. Yes, it can. And it's only 4 words long. Here it is:

Walk Away, Don't Pay.

Bang, problem solved.

Step 1, Walk Away. If you own a financially "impeded" asset, WALK AWAY. Fuck them. Who's "them"? Right, that's the fuckers who held the party, The Financiers. They gave you the tools to pay too much, and NOW is the time that it is clear that NEITHER of you should have engaged in the transaction, BUT THEY ULTIMATELY ACCEPTED FINANCIAL RESPONSIBILITY for the downside.

Well, it's here. So walk.

Step 2) Don't Pay. You know all those UNSECURED debts you have, ie CREDIT CARDS? Don't Pay. Again, Problem Solved. Fuck them. They sent you junk mail 24/7 for 20 years, BEGGING to be impaled on a Minsky Moment Skewer. Let it happen. Don't Pay.

As I said, this problem NEEDED financier help to get started. Without them, NO PARTY. Speculators might be slimy worm leaches, but they had nothing without the willing lenders to make it happen. Fuck Them All, But Fuck The Bankers The Hardest. Even Helicopter Bend thinks people will Walk Away, and NOT PAY:

Unless bankers act quickly, Bernanke warned, a large number of homeowners could walk away from their mortgage debt, reversing the historical pattern of people hanging onto their homes at almost all costs.

The Fed chief's comments were bolstered by a report by Moody's Economy.com that said nearly 9 million homeowners -- or about one in every 10 -- will either have no equity in their homes by the end of this month, or will have mortgage balances that exceed what their homes are worth.

Walk Away, Don't Pay is simply the Abandonment Of Financial Responsibility in this country. It's Instant De-Leveraging. Lemme tell you now: The Effects of This, will be around beyond the end of our lifetimes.

So how bad is it now? Welp, gotta go back to the Big D... and I don't mean Dallas:

Rapid deterioration
Housing in deepest decline since the Great Depression, economist says

By Steve Kerch, MarketWatch

Last update: 4:48 p.m. EST March 4, 2008

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Housing is in its "deepest, most rapid downswing since the Great Depression," the chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders said Tuesday, and the downward momentum on housing prices appears to be accelerating.

The NAHB's latest forecast calls for new-home sales to drop 22% this year, bringing sales 55% under the peak reached in late 2005. Housing starts are predicted to tumble 31% in 2008, putting starts 60% off their high of three years ago.

"More and more of the country is now involved in the contraction, where six months ago it was not as widespread," said David Seiders, the NAHB's chief economist, on a conference call with reporters. "Housing is in a major contraction mode and will be another major, heavy weight on the economy in the first quarter."

A home-sales measure tracked by the association that includes data on cancellations from 30 large U.S. builders that account for one-quarter of all sales shows sales down 65% from their peak in 2005, Seiders said. Government measures of home sales do not include numbers from contracts that were signed but buyers later backed out.

Vacant homes for sale in the U.S. now number about 2 million, Seiders said, an increase of 800,000 from 2005. That inventory overhang is bedeviling builders, who have been forced to cut prices and write down the value of their holdings. Read more on the builders' plight.

"Weak demand and oversupply naturally put downward pressure on prices," Seiders said.

Citing the Case-Shiller index, Seiders noted that home prices nationally have fallen nearly 10% from their peak in early 2006 and that prices were declining at a 19% annual rate in the fourth quarter. "The downward momentum was building at the end of the year," he said. Read the latest Case-Shiller numbers.

Home sales may bottom out later this year, Seiders predicted, but housing starts are not likely to rebound until 2009. Housing, which took 1.25 percentage points off GDP in the fourth quarter, looks like it will continue to be a major drag on gross domestic product at least through the end of 2008, he said.

Steve Kerch is assistant managing editor and personal finance editor of MarketWatch in Chicago.

Yeah. WORST HOUSING MARKET SINCE THE GREAT DEPRESSION. You shouldn't really believe that National City report. I'm SURE as the MOST OVERVALUED MARKET IN THE WORST HOUSING MARKET SINCE THE GREAT FUCKING DEPRESSION, that we'll be just fine.

It's hitting the fan, folks. But NOWHERE, and I mean NOWHERE else in the country are you finding more people FRANTICALLY attempting to keep the plates spinning.

Reporters are getting fired for not playing ball. Home associations are OVERTLY trying to FLOOD local media outlets with PR to get national newswire bad news OFF the front page. Every muscle of the local RE behemoth is straining to the breaking point to keep alive a party that the financiers closed 6 months ago. OK guys... the party is OVER. Time to go home. Time to get real.

But no. They will not. They still have hangers on, like Cascade Business Buttbangers who are telling them that National City is wrong, The Sun WILL Come Out Tomorrow, and all sorts of other nonsense that simply prolongs the pain.

Manipulate the media ALL YOU WANT, but this debacle will NEVER RE-FLATE. EVER.