10 Ways To Prosper In Bend's Coming Housing Depression

Let's take a short trip in The Way Back Machine, shall we?

It was last November, the air was crisp, Paul-doh was bearish, "TimToe" was not yet "Timothy", and duncan asked an innocent question over on BendBB...

duncan: Did you guys remove that last message or did the writer? Just curious.

TimToe: Hmm. What was the message? If it was the one about the lesbo strap-on movie, it was probably me. Sorry.

rdc: It was a long message with writer being a guest with name Becky Breeze
I did not delete it.

bendbb: I removed it. It's okay to post anonymously under a handle or a nickname, but it's not okay to post under someone else's name.

Guest: That was a very legitimate letter, It was written by Becky I assure you.

bendbb: Nope, it was clearly written by a troll. If you're that easily fooled, I've got a bridge in Portland to sell you.

not John Melton: Your heavy handed redaction is getting old. What evidence do you have that the post was not legitimate?

Paul-doh!: It WAS real. Don't worry, you'll see it again.

bendbb: Here's a picture of the bridge for sale:

Retail price is $3,000,000, but I have a special deal for you, only $1,999,999.

Paul-doh!: Say what you want, I know the source... it's legit

TimToe: Is it posted on your blog, Paul? I didn't get to read it.

Guest: My mother works for Becky, it was indeed written by her.

bendbb: Let me get this straight -- are you saying Becky Breeze posted that message on this bulletin board? And are you saying you know Becky Breeze?

frazzled: Why don't you just put the post back, so we can all judge for ourselves? We don't need BB being our censor. Instead of deleting a post remove the username or any signature.

bendbb: If you don't like how this bulletin board works, nobody is forcing you to read it and you're free to leave. For those who have trouble remembering the concept of not posting under someone else's name, I've added a reminder in the Welcome topic under the General category.

Guest: Welcome to the bendeconomy bulletin board… Participation is open to everyone. I'll contribute to the discussions when I have something relevant to say, but my opinion is just one of many here. Everyone's opinion is welcome.
That is, unless your opinion is that censorship isn’t wonderful.


bendbb: Your opinion that you don't like censorship is fine, but you also need to recognize that there's no absolute right to post anything anyone wants anywhere on the Internet. If someone wants to participate on a bulletin board or blog where there are no rules there are plenty of them out there. That's not how this bulletin board works though, so if you're going to post here you need to follow the rules.

Guest: What rule did Becky break?

TimToe: The rule is that a person posting under a known name has to be that person. We get people all the time pretending to be other people. I'm sure if Becky signed up, she could post as she likes. It's easy to be skeptical when people post as guests.
Having said all that, WHAT DID THE DAMNED POST SAY? Was it a claim that everything is all fine and dandy? Or an admission that the Plaza is a disaster?

guest: Are those of us who read it allowed to post a summary here or would that be against the rules? I would never claim to know who wrote it--I have no idea--but I saw what it said.

bendbb: Posting a summary isn't against the rules.

bendbb: TimToe is right, if Becky Breeze registers she can post as she likes.

becky breeze: Know how to do this blog stuff. ADMINISTRATOR Please re post my response that I provided under guest before. My smart systems guy Tarris is standing over me and showed me how register and respond properly. The administer will know @ not worry it was me. Dealing with a possible 'real demise' of Ovarian cancer starting 2 years ago this coming Jan, this all seems weird. Just remember when you are all being tough on each other most people are just like you in a lot of ways. No one in this life gets by on a free pass. Stay healthy and get as much happiness out of each day as you can. Come by and see me anytime you want and I will talk face to face with anyone that wants to. It is always good to meet a new friend. It kind of makes me sad that the guy that posted the blog said 'I told her not to do it' There was only one person that said that to me and he knows who he is. That person was told a million times not to do almost everything in his life and has gotten some success from just trying everyday and has avoided financial demise many times by just persevering. Some people want to get theirs and not want anyone else to get anything. Thanks again for all the nice responses you posted that Tarris showed me. One last thing, if people really want the small developers to fail only the big rich good old boys get the products in the sales. If you dislike a few people running your city now and setting their rules then it will be even worse when only a few big guys own everything. It is bad enough now in this small city. I do not understand why anyone would want failure of all the projects mentioned or anyone. We all reflect on each other financially city wide. If a lot of people loose their homes in an area then everyone is affected. I started real estate when % rates were in the high teens and low 20's. For all of you under 50 you may not remember those dark days of empty store fronts and people loosing everything. Tough times and no one except a few people again with the big pockets get richer during those times. Today rates are low, there is tons of loan products and prices are low. These are the best of times for buyers with decent credit. Do something good for yourself and the economy. Buy a home. You do not even have to buy from me. Just buy a home. In a couple of years you will be glad you did. Thanks for reading Becky

Guest: Can I get a better deal on that bridge BB?

Guest: bendbb what in her first post and now second post makes you think it's not Mrs. Breeze?

bendbb: Primarily the history of people posting under other people's names. I think it's prudent to verify that Becky Breeze is actually the person posting these messages, rather than taking it on faith. Becky, if you're the person who posted the messages in question please respond to the email message I sent this afternoon asking for confirmation.

Guest: I was really getting to appreciate bb filtering out the comments I don’t need to see, but now my confidence is shattered- he can’t distinguish a troll from a genuine person making heartfelt comments. It almost makes me question the benefits of arbitrary censorship.

becky breeze: Tarris said some of you asked for stats on the MLS sales in affordable housing in Bend. Here it is and I will be happy to talk face to face with anyone that has questions. All of these stats are from our local Multiple Listing Bureau as of about 3 minutes ago.
Today in BEND residential only(no condos, townhomes, businesses, land,lots,or even residential w/acreage is not included. So remember that for the next numbers provided THESE ARE ALL HOMES STATS ONLY FROM 100K TO 300K
Today 366 homes are for sale in Bend priced from $154,250 to $300,000
Since Jan 1 O7 to today (same price as above only 1K to 3K)
440 homes closed sale and 48 are pending for a total of 488 sold and pending 07
YTD 2006 605 homes closed and 46 went pending 1K to 3K
2005 THE YEAR EVERYONE WAS BUYING HIGH 1675 HOMES SOLD AND 48 PENDING 1k to 3k only
2004 1710 sold and 48 went pending (same 48? no) 1k to 3k only
2003 1471 sold and 48 went pending 1K to 3K only
2002 1266 sold and 44 went pending 1K to 3K only
total dollar volume of each year SOLD
2007 $113,900,514 million CLOSED VOLUME
2006 $161,337,700 million CLOSED VOLUME
2005 $390,093,667 million !!!!!!!!! EVERYONE BUYS WHEN EVERYONE IS BUYING IT IS NOT THE RIGHT TIME. BUY NOW LOOK AT THE STATS
2004 $355,335,929 million CLOSED VOLUME
2003 $283,074,314 million CLOSED VOLUME
2002 $230,599,099 million CLOSED

For the person hoping for 2002 2003 and 2004 prices. DON'T
Look at these stats hard. This is sad stuff for people who want to sell their homes. Forget the developers and builders. Think about yourself owning a home and just being transferred or having to go into an assisted living place. Think about all the guys who want to work in the trades. It is gruesome out the upside is it IS the best BUYERS market I have seen in 28 years. It all has a ripple effect and it can effect you no matter who you are. I got an email from someone from this site and I told them it was me and to re post that first response. So here we go.
Thanks Becky

Ducnan(sic): Becky, Out of the last 205 price changes that this bulletin board has listed, 202 were down and only three were up. Why wouldn't a buyer wait? If there is the slightest concern they'll miss an upturn, then need only watch the list and if, let's say 25% go up, THEN start looking.

Paul-doh!: Agreed. You say "Buy a house now"... are you glad you jumped into the development business when you did? You own 38 "houses"... are you glad? Seriously. "Buy a house, you'll be glad you did." is advice that does not seem to be working. Prices went to levels that are unsustainable, IMO. WHAT IF prices go down 30-40%, and STAY THERE. I'd be happy to BUY at those prices, but I'd be quite upset to buy today & lose so much that I'm underwater. Especially if I HAD TO sell & move. That amount would wipe out many, many people. And why BUY a house for $2500-3000/mo mortgage, when you can rent it for $1,100, and invest the difference? That financial equation will NEVER make sense. I agree that "buying" a house HAS ALWAYS been a dominant investment in the past -- leverage works for you, and prices seemed to steadily inch higher. No more. This thing will be a bloodbath. And not to be facetious or cruel, but honestly, you own 38 residences... are you "glad you do"?

bendbb: I'm pleased to report that Becky Breeze replied to my email message and confirmed that she registered on the bulletin board earlier today. She requested that I repost the message I deleted earlier in this topic, so here it is.
--------------------------------------------------
The article for my demise is kind of weird. A wonderful guy Tarris Rogers who has been with my company for 12 years told me to look at this BLOG you have on your site. There were some nice things said in yesterdays BLOG and some bad things. You BLOGGERS do NOT know I was diagnosed with ovarian cancer a few months into the Plaza project. Miss Healthy here, who never gets sick ,what was that? Then I learned that prostate and ovarian and breast cancer has nothing to do with diet. AND the PAP smear has nothing to do with diagnosis because the PAP smear is a viral situation and Ovarian cancer is not detectable unless a good doctor like Dr Mary Ellen Coulter is able to find it in an examination or by a pelvic ultrasound. WOW what a bummer that was, and chemo and two major sugeries NOW THAT IS DEMISE! My wonderful husband not only stayed at my side through 2 major surgeries & chemotherapy he had to deal with keeping the Plaza going to be the best built 130,000 sq ft building in Bend. Super guy and I love him more every day. It is strange to me that a Blog Person would hope for my demise in a business deal (no big deal there will be another one if this deal it REALLY does not work out because of our present market. If BLOGS were around when Bill Smith was begging for money from Les Schwab & Matt Day in the original days of his dreaming of an extension of town in the middle of an old abandoned mill site, DEQ disaster, fixed, now known as the Old Mill. Thank goodness Blogs were not around then. He would have been on your hot plate. Blogs were not around to call for Haydens demise for his BLUFFS above the REED MKT round about that has been selling product for 5 years, OTTER RUN on the market for 6 years, OLD MILL QUARTER or any other product. ALL of these projects have their struggles but never had BLOGS to call for their demise. For all of the BLOGGERS, please come by any day of the week to see THE PLAZA. To the Blog that said we had, cheap anything, finishes they are confused with other products on the market. We are all custom, and gorgeous. No plastic inserts or plastic anything. Bathrooms & kitchens are all custom finishes. But only you can see for yourself. Remember if you come by it is the BRICK BLDG on Bluff Drive next to AMERITEL INN not THE BLUFFS above the REED MKT round about. You do NOT have to buy one if you come and see it, I promise, but you should have the real knowledge. By the way, this is my first BLOG so I hope I did it right. I am 58 years old last October 24 and have been working since I was a kid every day for my up keep with no gimmees from anyone. I love my life here in Bend (19 years now) and I love my grandbabies. I love my job and my health which is hopeful. I even like all the bloggers because we are just people trying to get by and live through the day whatever the day gives us. You all take care and stay healthy. BB

TimToe: And Becky, I know you want people to buy now. But the Case-Shiller S&P housing futures predict a national downturn in house prices until 2011. When you tell people to buy now, you're giving advice that's contrary to some of the smartest people in the world betting big money. The country went from 61% to 69% home ownership. It's obvious that many of those people couldn't really afford the houses they were being shoveled into. Those poor people were done a great disservice and they AREN'T coming back to buy houses soon. We've run out of suckers. You tell people to buy, but there are no more buyers. Sure, investors could buy, but they aren't dumb enough to buy when YOU tell them to buy.

There follows a tedious enumeration of the evils of censorship, but this thread does illustrate 2 things of particular interest:

1) First, that "censorship" in whatever form is inherently BIASED. Is it WRONG? I'm not sure how to define that, or if it's even relevant. But when you CENSOR people, you are typically working from pre-conceived notions that can terribly misplaced, as you can easily see above.

Is BendBB the worst offender around? Hell no! Cascade Business Buttbangers will go down in my book as the most ridiculously biased rag to ever grace our scrub. The Bulletin & KTVZ are a (distant) second.

But unfortunately this thread & another regarding the tracking of IP's for the sake of "banning" marked my quiet departure from BendBB. Again, it wasn't a Virtual Walkout or anything, it just became quite apparent that BendBB had a wholly different philosophy than I did about what gathering opinions, making decisions, and voicing your thoughts on this place. No one really wrong or right, just different philosophies.

You can say whatever you want here, uncensored, and I don't track fuckin' IP's. I don't want to know who you are (unless you're like Dunc, and you want us to know), and know full well that technological attempts to do so are riddled with impossibilities.

2) You see the bias inherent in people's own opinion's with "Becky's" repeated encouragements for you to "buy a house now"! As a quick aside, let's see how this advice works out.

First, NOD's filed:

Nov 07 - 80
Dec 07 - 70
Jan 08 - 91
Feb 08 - 109
Mar 08 - 113 through 3/27 (nine on 3/27 alone)

Or units sold? Again, MST:

2007
Sept. 113
Oct. 112
Nov. 94
Dec. 79
2008
Jan. 72
Feb. 55

OK, so maybe prices are better? Hmmm... from "MST" over on BendBB:

2007
Sept. $330k
Oct. $320k
Nov. $340k
Dec. $339k
2008
Jan. $312k
Feb. $315k

And the latest medians that I am "hearing" are in the high $200's.

Becky's pleas for you to purchase a home last November seem.... uh, wrong. Why? She is an expert in Real Estate right? She & others just like her are interviewed with nauseating regularity in our local media, as Real Estate Experts, right?

The first, and most obvious reason, is a point covered with pendulum-like frequency here: This town employs "three times" the state average in the real estate trade, a figure so laughably low I have to chuckle every time I see it. Real Estate IS Bend. Take away the RE Bubble, and what do you think this town would be? Sleepy little mountain town, no Trader Joe's, no Bend River Promenade (oh God), no STD's... just a little town without many economic prospects.

This town is literally run by RE-slanted Boss Hogg's. You can see it in the predisposition of the COBA-fueled nightmare; they assumed that firing up an onslaught of biased PR was How You Got Things Done. "We'll run real stories, national in scope and negative in opinion, off the local front page, by unleashing a torrent of Good News written by Us". They saw & to this day, see no problem with such tactics. Bias is their tool of choice.

But second, these people literally cannot see any other point of view. I think that Becky, God bless her, in her heart of hearts BELIEVES that real estate is a Great Idea And You Should Buy, and that she will believe that to the bitter end. She believes it at $340K medians, she believes it today at $285K medians, she will believe it in the future at $195K medians. She isn't wearing rose colored glasses; they've been lasik'd to her eyeballs.

Now I just love Becky and think she's a sweet gal, and BendBB is probably a good guy & if I met at a bar, we'd probably be exchanging sweet, sweet man love in the back of his BMW after a six-pack of Abyss, and Costa & Hollern are also probably good guys, too.

But folks, these people DO NOT have your best interests, nor mine, at heart. They do not give a fuck if you live or suck dirt. They are out for themselves, like most, and cramming a fuckin house down your throat AT ALL COSTS is what about 50-60% of Bends economy is geared towards.

When you read something along the lines of "Who could have predicted things would get this bad...", you are reading the thoughts of the SELF-DELUDED. I have now seen this phrase used in virtually EVERY Bend Bulletin issue for months. It's been in the national media even longer. Bernanke says it all the time, this countries top economist, local economists, Economic & Finance professors, Realtors, our President, our Chamber members, and on and on.

This country is STILL deluding itself EN MASSE about just exactly what is going on. This IS NOT like all the other "slowdowns". It is so radically different, this country will NEVER BE THE SAME when it's over. NO ONE wants you to think that; that's like screaming "Fire!" in a crowded movie house... or is it screaming "Movie!" in a crowded fire house? Anyway, NO ONE is going to be "made whole" if Armageddon actually happens. No one, not me, not you. It'll be hell.

Wonder how BAD it'll be & why this is The Big One, and you ain't never seen the Big One before? Ok, ask yourself these questions:

1) Did you ACTUALLY lose money in the 1987 crash? That was a Big One, but I don't know many people who lost a "lot". In fact it was a few short years before the Dow was at new highs. Hell, I actually made money in Eastman Kodak puts!

2) Did you get hurt during the Gulf War fall? Again, this was a short-term up & down affair.

3) What about the Thai baht collapse or Long-Term Capital collapse? Nothing here, and I don't know anyone who personally suffered big losses.

4) What about the collapse of the NASDAQ bubble? I DID have friends who suffered some substantial losses on this one. But nothing permanent. They had other assets, and besides they were young & their future income stream was really their biggest asset.

5) Who do you know that will be negatively affected if their home price is CUT IN HALF?

See, that last one is The End. That's just Game Over, because it affects SO MANY PEOPLE & IT AFFECTS THEM TO A DIRECT FINANCIAL DEGREE UNMATCHED IN THEIR OWN EXPERIENCE AND TO AN EXTENT UNMATCHED IN THE HISTORY OF THIS COUNTRY.

Bend is headed for a 50% off sale. The rest of the US, is probably not going that far.

But is it safe to say that the evaporation of $5-10 TRILLION dollars of wealth from 67% of this countries population is an absolutely unhearlded event that we have never even come close to witnessing?

You're damn right it is.

I don't want it to happen, I just see absolutely no other rational outcome. I keep hearing about this being the unfolding of the worst possible (and most unlikely) scenario unfolding in a serial fashion, each financial event even less likely to recur than the last.

Let me say this: It's NOT done.

We're having a little respite from the Bear Stearns plummet, and everyone seems to be coming out with Rosy forecasts galore, Maria Bartiromo saying ad nauseum that It Is Over, Bear Stearns marked The Bottom, and it's up and away from here.

This is a fundamental MISUNDERSTANDING of what is going on. This is chalking THIS phenomenon up to Business As Usual, and every negative financial event is a reason to Buy Stocks, Cuz Stocks In The U.S. Go Up, and anyone who violates that rule Gets Punished.

Bartiromo attests that each financial setback "rhymes" with all the others in U.S. history, and that the thing to do has always been BUY.

Folks, this one does not RHYME with anything. It is totally unprecedented. NEVER before have SO MANY stood to lose SO MUCH. This is not Wall Street that is losing. It is you & me, and virtually ALL the people we know. People at work, people in your neighborhood, people on this blog, me, Timmy, BendBB, Buster, Becky Breeze, Norma DuBois, Prineville, Sisters, Oregon... this fiasco is literally uncontainable.

The Fed has purchased junk bonds to shore up Friends Of Bush, but it's STILL JUNK. It will still go into default. But instead WE own it, not Bear Stearns exec's. This is our Minsky Moment.

The US is headed toward a fundamental shift in it's economy; the aftermath of this bubble bursting will go on for what amounts to the rest of our adult lives. Japan's bubble is still collapsing, almost 2 decades later. This will not be short, and it won't be pleasant.

What do I want to know?

Is there a way to mitigate losses, and even do well DURING this thing?

Well first, I would avoid purchasing a house at all costs, unless you are prepared to make, in economic terms, nothing for at least 20-30 years. Rent & Invest The Difference is my #1 Investment Thesis... maybe you've heard it before :-)

But Invest where? Well, if I definitively knew that, I wouldn't be writing this, but one idea that people seem to be flocking to seems bothersome to me: US Treasuries. There is massive flight-to-safety buying of treasuries, and yields are incredibly low now.

I do NOT see this being the case in 10 years. We have gone the STAGFLATION route in "solving" this bubble bursting problem, and I see treasuries as one of the WORST investments for the next 1-2 decades.

Of course, debt in general is completely toxic for the moment.

Stocks? This actually looks OK, given the horrible alternatives. Within sectors I would look for stuff as non-cyclical as possible, with ZERO debt. Pharma... Food & Beverages...hell, even take a flyer on commodity inflation & buy some gold stocks.... just a little though.

But real, large scale fortunes will be made in catering to The Great Unwashed, those who finally had to "Walk Away, and Not Pay". There will be MILLIONS of these debt-addled zombies walking the streets in the decades to come. Getting these people into homes, getting them cars, food, and life's other necessities will be Big Business.

"Bad Credit is OK" type businesses. Bartering. Day Laborer outfits. "Work For Food". My God, who knows what people will come up with to accomodate these people just surviving.

And remember: This WILL NOT be some small, insignificant "fringe" group; there will be MILLIONS AND MILLIONS of these people. They will be like blacks & women have been in past millenia: A huge addition to the workforce, that if utilized, will bring untold wealth "back" into our mainstream. Mark my words: There will come a day when broke ass Whitey will be implored by our Goverment (hopefully Obama, for the maximum cruel irony) to "come back to work", after being SOL & marginalized for years.

The stigma of being a deadbeat will eventually mostly go away.

Just remember this when you are reading pieces like the recent "Region's still growing, just not as quickly", from the Bulletin. Wonderful News, yes? We're Top 5 still, and all is well.

Hmmm.... but they buried the fact that we are 17th for the last year measured, which ended LAST SUMMER. A more recent survey of movers show a recent reversal and a VAST OUTFLOW from Central Oregon.

What's happened? Right, THEY went ELIZABETH TAYLOR on us, and smeared the lense with vaseline on some OLD ASS DATA. They want you to NOT PANIC, ALL IS WELL.

What's TRAGIC, is this strategy is backfiring; people are buying this line of BS and refusing to lower their asking prices. So no homes sell. Because there is no money. But Costa & Co do NOT understand that, and are relying on the past rhyming with the future.

"We did this last time & got the greatest explosion of local wealth EVER... we'll by God, do it again!".

Costa, you fuckin idiot, it is DIFFERENT NOW. The money is gone. Your pie-in-the-sky bullshit is burying this place. Nothing will sell until prices COME WAY DOWN. Why? Again, THERE IS NO MONEY left. Read about the money multiplier if you do not understand why.

Do people want to buy? Yes.

Can they buy at these prices? OF COURSE NOT!

Until the vast Bend RE complex REALIZES this Fundamental Truth, we are headed for an economic quagmire. We will NOT ESCAPE until there is some balance between INCOMES & HOME PRICES, AND we have built a diversified economy not utterly dependent on the extreme cyclicality of RE.

I know you have Good Intentions Becky, Norma, Pam, Hollern & the Rest, but Pollyanna scenarios cannot & will not happen here AGAIN. We had our shot, and instead of bringing sustainable industry of some sort, we doubled down on REd, and now we're screwed. OK, we're in the shits, and there's nothing to do about that.

BUT, we can End This Thing as quickly as possible. Stop trying to convince everyone that Bend is different. You are convincing sellers TOO, and they will NOT lower their expectations OR prices, and hence the quagmire continues.

Be straight. Stop REDACTING reality. We Can Take It. Your LIES only make things worse and they make it last LONGER. Stop saying there is ALWAYS A SILVER LINING in Bend, there is NOT. COBA is NOT going to change the fact that NO ONE can borrow ANY MONEY, no matter whether this is the Best Buyers Market in 20 Years, or 1,000 YEARS, and no matter whether rates are 5% or 0%. None of this matters anymore.

THE MONEY IS GONE, THE DREAM IS OVER. GET FUCKING REAL.

Well, Buster complains I'm not "local" enough... too much video... so here's what I thought was the most forward-looking piece I could find about the future of Cent OR:

Back to the farm for jobs

Laid-off workers line up for limited number of spots

By Lauren Dake / The Bulletin

Published: March 29. 2008 4:00AM PST

MADRAS — In two weeks, the water will come.

Sucked up from the irrigation canal, it will spew out through the wheel-line irrigation system on Martin Richards’ Fox Hollow Ranch in Madras, softening the cracked soil.

Thirty-year-old Madras resident Walter Rivera will make sure the thirsty land on Richards’ farm receives the necessary water. Rivera was hired to help during the irrigation season on Richards’ farm this year. A laid-off Bright Wood worker, he was one of many searching for farm jobs this spring but one of the few who has actually found one.

Recent layoffs — at Bright Wood Corp., Contact Lumber in Prineville and the wood products manufacturer in Warm Springs, to name a few — are hitting the Jefferson County economy especially hard. The county also saw the indefinite postponement of the 1,223-bed, medium-security portion of the Deer Ridge Correctional Institution and the jobs that would have come with it. And last year, the Culver operation of the boat manufacturing company Seaswirl Boats Inc. closed, eliminating around 170 jobs.

For farmers, that has translated into an inundation of laborers looking for work.

“Two years ago, if I said I need 14 people by Monday, it took me two weeks to drum up bodies,” said Rob Gallyen, co-owner of Williams Land and Livestock in Madras. “And right now, heck, if I wanted 20 people I could probably have them here by this afternoon.”

At Bright Wood, Rivera earned $12.25 an hour, plus benefits. Now, he’ll be working longer hours, for $10 an hour, and without benefits.

“Ag jobs are at the bottom rung of the ladder,” Richards said. “Industry jobs are preferable, construction or Bright Wood, that pays better and it’s easier work. ... Farm work is dusty and dirty, and people look at it as menial. You use your brain at Bright Wood a little more.”

Farming in Jefferson County

The county’s climate is ideal for high-value seed crops — carrot, radish, garlic and grass seeds do well in the High Desert’s sunny days.

In the Willamette Valley, farmers fight the weather. The rain can hinder both the harvest and planting season. But in Central Oregon, the cloudless days lead to longer hours spent irrigating.

It depends on the farmer, the acreage and the crop, but most farmers prefer to hire seasonal labor to plant their crops and oversee irrigation to relying on machinery, Richards said.

“You have more quality control,” he said.

Mike Macy, of Culver, has around 1,600 acres of carrot seed, bluegrass seed, peppermint, wheat and potato crops. In past years, he’s replaced some manual labor with machinery.

“Two years ago, we bought some machines to help plant carrot seed; it requires one-fifth of the people we used to need,” he said. “And the main reason we did that was because two years ago we had a rough time finding people. Now, there are people everywhere.”

Long lists

Macy, of Macy Farms, Stan Sullivan, Kip Light, Jack Ickler and Phil Fines all have something more in common than being farmers in Jefferson County.

Each of them has a waiting list of farmworker hopefuls who stop by their property on a daily basis looking for work.

“They drive around, it’s been that way since I was a young kid,” Light said. “They knock on the door, or they see you out working and ask if you have any work.”

Gallyen said he has a list of around 70 people. And most farmers say they have two or three people stop by on a daily basis.

“Unfortunately, I can’t hire 240 people,” Gallyen said.

Many of the farmers, such as Gallyen, may eventually hire a few extra people when carrot seed planting goes into full force. But, for the most part, they keep the same crew they’ve had for the past 10 or 15 years.

Jefferson County has a short growing season and less labor-intensive crops than other areas, said Bart Eleveld, a professor at Oregon State University in the Agricultural & Resource Economics Department. That could translate into a tougher time finding farm jobs than other places in the state.

“I think people looking for jobs in that sector, well, there isn’t a huge backlog or a number of unfilled jobs,” Eleveld said. “In the Willamette Valley, or some places in Central California or orchard areas like Hood River or The Dalles, there is more hand labor required in agriculture, but I’m not sure if Central Oregon is bleeding in this area.”

Lucky break

There is one area, Eleveld said, where he has heard that Jefferson County farmers consistently need seasonal labor.

“One thing farmers use shorter-term labor on is irrigation,” Eleveld said. “Moving pipes and whatnot, but there isn’t a shortage of people in those positions.”

And Rivera had a connection.

His brother-in-law is Richards’ only full-time employee. On Feb. 25, Rivera received his last paycheck from Bright Wood, his employer of two years. With it came a pink slip. For two weeks, Rivera spent his days driving from farm to farm.

He applied for jobs online. He drove to Terrebonne, Redmond, Bend and Prineville. His name was one of the 70 or so on Gallyen’s list.

Rivera said he’s more relaxed now that he has an income again.

“As long as I’m making money,” Rivera said. “It’s not as big of a problem.”

But with a $500 truck payment, $900-a-month mortgage, two kids and an unemployed wife, money is tight.

At the Rivera residence, Sami Rivera, 36, explained how she hurt her back working at Contact Lumber in Prineville. Once she felt better and tried to get her job back, there was no job to get back.

“I had good credit,” she said, “but it’s taken a nose dive. I’m worried about the house. If we sell it, will we be able to get another one? We could lose everything. I’ve heard of people losing everything.”

The phone rang in the Rivera household, interrupting Sami.

“Not today,” Sami tells the creditor. “I’m not able to pay it today.”

She paused.

“Not for a while,” she said.

Still looking

Since most agricultural work is seasonal, farmers can’t afford to offer their employees benefits and therefore don’t report numbers to the employment office. So finding data on agricultural jobs is difficult and leads to mainly anecdotal information.

“Every shoe store, every dry cleaner, every staffing agency reports their employees to us,” said Mary Lewis, a monitor advocate for farmworker services with the Oregon Employment Department. “But federal unemployment insurance law doesn’t require every agricultural employer to participate in the unemployed system. Therefore, they don’t report to us. From the data perspective, it makes the data in agriculture different.”

Employment numbers for the county, however, are far from anecdotal.

The county saw a 9.9 percent unemployment rate for February, the highest February unemployment rate since 2001. The Bright Wood layoffs have not yet been factored into the unemployment rate.

Francisco Espinoza, 35, of Madras, said his job search has brought him face to face with the competition. On his job-seeking trips to Redmond and Prineville, he often runs into others who are doing the same.

“There are so many people who don’t have work,” Espinoza said.

Necanor Sanchez, 27, also of Madras, was out looking for work when it started to slow down at Mid-Columbia Lumber Products in Madras, and his days were reduced. Now, business has picked up again, and he’s working four days a week, which is keeping him afloat. But like Rivera, his name is on Gallyen’s wait list, just in case.

“Farm work is less skilled, and it’s lower pay,” Richards said. “Everyone wants to better themselves. And initially, when workers come, if they don’t speak English, they take these jobs. And as they learn English, it’s easier to get jobs at Bright Wood. If I was in their shoes, I think I would do the same thing.”

Richards said if he had enough work, he would keep Rivera year round — Rivera has already proven himself a capable, hard worker.

“It’s hard to find that kind of quality. If Bright Wood hired him back, he would probably go back,” Richards said. “We do see a higher quality of labor to choose from. I guess that’s the plus side of it.”

Lauren Dake can be reached at 419-8074 or at ldake@bendbulletin.com.

The high unemployment in Madras is the shape of things to come in Bend. But it's happening there now, instead of later like it will in Bend, because:

1) Brightwood is a "centralized" decision maker about whether half that town working or not, not a lot of individuals, like Bend's RE industry... so we keep hanging on by our 401K's.

2) Most of the people in Bend RE piled it up for at least a few years, unlike Madras, and believe it'll turn around soon, and are burning through their cash

But once the reality DOES sink in, this piece will illustrate what will happen in Bend: EVERYONE in the industry will be "kicked down a notch" in their employment skill set. It's called Underemployment. You make less, you do grunge work, your life sucks.

Yup, even in the shadow of an outdoor wonderland, your life still sucks.

You think we won't hit that 9.9% unemployment rate like Madras? Hell yes, we will! Not this year, but probably next. Sometime within the next 4-5 years we'll probably see the highest unemployment rates we've had in 20 years in Cent OR. We're at 8.3% right now! It was at 5.7% last Feburary! Hell, 10% unemployment for Bend is a slam dunk in the next few years.

All those $120K/yr Realtors will be working at coffee huts. All those mortgage brokers will be working at ski shops. All the "assistants" to these people will be working at Bachelor... and unemployed the rest of the year.

The INCOME is going away folks. And our esteemed Bend Mass Media is STILL trying to talk this thing up again.

People are leaving. Why? Hell, it's fun making money in Xanadu! But once the novelty has worn off, Xanadu ain't so hot anymore.

Stop trying to "convince" people that this place is a paradise & hence, All Will Be OK. It is a paradise, but that don't mean dink. But no force on Earth will stop Bend from imploding on itself, certainly no PR or Marketing crap. There's not enough money to save this town. We'll be littered with the Walking Dead, just like Madras, in a few years.

What will work?

1) Property Manager - rental numbers aren't going anywhere but up, and all the foreclosures will ultimately get bought by someone... and turned into rentals

2) Lawyer (legal asst) - Again, foreclosures galore, and scumbag vulture lawyers will be there to suck us dry.

3) Move out cleaners & painters - Residential mobility going UP, and you gotta clean the place each time.

4) Used stuff - Consignment shops might make a comeback when the money gets tight

5) Used RV's - People will need to live in something once their life in wrecked, typically a "one-payment" domicile.

6) Moving & storage - I think there's even a piece in todays paper about the ever increasing need to store stuff.

7) Cut rate Realtors - I think 6% is going bye-bye, and pay-for-service & cut-rate guys will take over the market. This is already big & getting bigger.

8) Car repair - We'll be fixing what we have, not buying new.

9) Ebay, etc - Since Bend's economy is a one-trick pony (Buy this overpriced house, PLEASE!), people will need to start to diversify their own economics geographically, if they actually do decide to stay here.

10) Gas station, Les Schwab - Hey, it's state mandated that someone fill our tank. And spike tires are just a given around here.

So there you have it! I ended on an upnote, even.

10 ways to make cash in the collapse of Bend.