Monday, March 31, 2008

10 Ways To Prosper In Bend's Coming Housing Depression

Let's take a short trip in The Way Back Machine, shall we?

It was last November, the air was crisp, Paul-doh was bearish, "TimToe" was not yet "Timothy", and duncan asked an innocent question over on BendBB...

duncan: Did you guys remove that last message or did the writer? Just curious.

TimToe:
Hmm. What was the message? If it was the one about the lesbo strap-on movie, it was probably me. Sorry.

rdc:
It was a long message with writer being a guest with name Becky Breeze
I did not delete it.

bendbb: I removed it. It's okay to post anonymously under a handle or a nickname, but it's not okay to post under someone else's name.

Guest:
That was a very legitimate letter, It was written by Becky I assure you.

bendbb:
Nope, it was clearly written by a troll. If you're that easily fooled, I've got a bridge in Portland to sell you.

not John Melton:
Your heavy handed redaction is getting old. What evidence do you have that the post was not legitimate?

Paul-doh!:
It WAS real. Don't worry, you'll see it again.

bendbb:
Here's a picture of the bridge for sale:

Retail price is $3,000,000, but I have a special deal for you, only $1,999,999.

Paul-doh!:
Say what you want, I know the source... it's legit

TimToe:
Is it posted on your blog, Paul? I didn't get to read it.

Guest:
My mother works for Becky, it was indeed written by her.

bendbb:
Let me get this straight -- are you saying Becky Breeze posted that message on this bulletin board? And are you saying you know Becky Breeze?

frazzled:
Why don't you just put the post back, so we can all judge for ourselves? We don't need BB being our censor. Instead of deleting a post remove the username or any signature.

bendbb:
If you don't like how this bulletin board works, nobody is forcing you to read it and you're free to leave. For those who have trouble remembering the concept of not posting under someone else's name, I've added a reminder in the Welcome topic under the General category.

Guest:
Welcome to the bendeconomy bulletin board… Participation is open to everyone. I'll contribute to the discussions when I have something relevant to say, but my opinion is just one of many here. Everyone's opinion is welcome.
That is, unless your opinion is that censorship isn’t wonderful.



bendbb:
Your opinion that you don't like censorship is fine, but you also need to recognize that there's no absolute right to post anything anyone wants anywhere on the Internet. If someone wants to participate on a bulletin board or blog where there are no rules there are plenty of them out there. That's not how this bulletin board works though, so if you're going to post here you need to follow the rules.

Guest:
What rule did Becky break?

TimToe: The rule is that a person posting under a known name has to be that person. We get people all the time pretending to be other people. I'm sure if Becky signed up, she could post as she likes. It's easy to be skeptical when people post as guests.
Having said all that, WHAT DID THE DAMNED POST SAY? Was it a claim that everything is all fine and dandy? Or an admission that the Plaza is a disaster?


guest:
Are those of us who read it allowed to post a summary here or would that be against the rules? I would never claim to know who wrote it--I have no idea--but I saw what it said.

bendbb:
Posting a summary isn't against the rules.

bendbb:
TimToe is right, if Becky Breeze registers she can post as she likes.

becky breeze:
Know how to do this blog stuff. ADMINISTRATOR Please re post my response that I provided under guest before. My smart systems guy Tarris is standing over me and showed me how register and respond properly. The administer will know @ not worry it was me. Dealing with a possible 'real demise' of Ovarian cancer starting 2 years ago this coming Jan, this all seems weird. Just remember when you are all being tough on each other most people are just like you in a lot of ways. No one in this life gets by on a free pass. Stay healthy and get as much happiness out of each day as you can. Come by and see me anytime you want and I will talk face to face with anyone that wants to. It is always good to meet a new friend. It kind of makes me sad that the guy that posted the blog said 'I told her not to do it' There was only one person that said that to me and he knows who he is. That person was told a million times not to do almost everything in his life and has gotten some success from just trying everyday and has avoided financial demise many times by just persevering. Some people want to get theirs and not want anyone else to get anything. Thanks again for all the nice responses you posted that Tarris showed me. One last thing, if people really want the small developers to fail only the big rich good old boys get the products in the sales. If you dislike a few people running your city now and setting their rules then it will be even worse when only a few big guys own everything. It is bad enough now in this small city. I do not understand why anyone would want failure of all the projects mentioned or anyone. We all reflect on each other financially city wide. If a lot of people loose their homes in an area then everyone is affected. I started real estate when % rates were in the high teens and low 20's. For all of you under 50 you may not remember those dark days of empty store fronts and people loosing everything. Tough times and no one except a few people again with the big pockets get richer during those times. Today rates are low, there is tons of loan products and prices are low. These are the best of times for buyers with decent credit. Do something good for yourself and the economy. Buy a home. You do not even have to buy from me. Just buy a home. In a couple of years you will be glad you did. Thanks for reading Becky

Guest:
Can I get a better deal on that bridge BB?

Guest:
bendbb what in her first post and now second post makes you think it's not Mrs. Breeze?

bendbb:
Primarily the history of people posting under other people's names. I think it's prudent to verify that Becky Breeze is actually the person posting these messages, rather than taking it on faith. Becky, if you're the person who posted the messages in question please respond to the email message I sent this afternoon asking for confirmation.

Guest:
I was really getting to appreciate bb filtering out the comments I don’t need to see, but now my confidence is shattered- he can’t distinguish a troll from a genuine person making heartfelt comments. It almost makes me question the benefits of arbitrary censorship.

becky breeze: Tarris said some of you asked for stats on the MLS sales in affordable housing in Bend. Here it is and I will be happy to talk face to face with anyone that has questions. All of these stats are from our local Multiple Listing Bureau as of about 3 minutes ago.
Today in BEND residential only(no condos, townhomes, businesses, land,lots,or even residential w/acreage is not included. So remember that for the next numbers provided
THESE ARE ALL HOMES STATS ONLY FROM 100K TO 300K
Today 366 homes are for sale in Bend priced from $154,250 to $300,000

Since Jan 1 O7 to today (same price as above only 1K to 3K)
440 homes closed sale and 48 are pending for a total of 488 sold and pending 07
YTD
2006 605 homes closed and 46 went pending 1K to 3K
2005 THE YEAR EVERYONE WAS BUYING HIGH 1675 HOMES SOLD AND 48 PENDING 1k to 3k only

2004 1710 sold and 48 went pending (same 48? no) 1k to 3k only
2003 1471 sold and 48 went pending 1K to 3K only
2002 1266 sold and 44 went pending 1K to 3K only

total dollar volume of each year SOLD
2007 $113,900,514 million CLOSED VOLUME
2006 $161,337,700 million CLOSED VOLUME
2005 $390,093,667 million !!!!!!!!! EVERYONE BUYS WHEN EVERYONE IS BUYING IT IS NOT THE RIGHT TIME. BUY NOW LOOK AT THE STATS

2004 $355,335,929 million CLOSED VOLUME

2003 $283,074,314 million CLOSED VOLUME
2002 $230,599,099 million CLOSED

For the person hoping for 2002 2003 and 2004 prices. DON'T
Look at these stats hard. This is sad stuff for people who want to sell their homes. Forget the developers and builders. Think about yourself owning a home and just being transferred or having to go into an assisted living place. Think about all the guys who want to work in the trades. It is gruesome out the upside is it IS the best BUYERS market I have seen in 28 years. It all has a ripple effect and it can effect you no matter who you are.
I got an email from someone from this site and I told them it was me and to re post that first response. So here we go.
Thanks Becky


Ducnan(sic):
Becky, Out of the last 205 price changes that this bulletin board has listed, 202 were down and only three were up. Why wouldn't a buyer wait? If there is the slightest concern they'll miss an upturn, then need only watch the list and if, let's say 25% go up, THEN start looking.

Paul-doh!:
Agreed. You say "Buy a house now"... are you glad you jumped into the development business when you did? You own 38 "houses"... are you glad? Seriously. "Buy a house, you'll be glad you did." is advice that does not seem to be working. Prices went to levels that are unsustainable, IMO. WHAT IF prices go down 30-40%, and STAY THERE. I'd be happy to BUY at those prices, but I'd be quite upset to buy today & lose so much that I'm underwater. Especially if I HAD TO sell & move. That amount would wipe out many, many people. And why BUY a house for $2500-3000/mo mortgage, when you can rent it for $1,100, and invest the difference? That financial equation will NEVER make sense. I agree that "buying" a house HAS ALWAYS been a dominant investment in the past -- leverage works for you, and prices seemed to steadily inch higher. No more. This thing will be a bloodbath. And not to be facetious or cruel, but honestly, you own 38 residences... are you "glad you do"?

bendbb:
I'm pleased to report that Becky Breeze replied to my email message and confirmed that she registered on the bulletin board earlier today. She requested that I repost the message I deleted earlier in this topic, so here it is.
--------------------------------------------------
The article for my demise is kind of weird. A wonderful guy Tarris Rogers who has been with my company for 12 years told me to look at this BLOG you have on your site. There were some nice things said in yesterdays BLOG and some bad things. You BLOGGERS do NOT know I was diagnosed with ovarian cancer a few months into the Plaza project. Miss Healthy here, who never gets sick ,what was that? Then I learned that prostate and ovarian and breast cancer has nothing to do with diet. AND the PAP smear has nothing to do with diagnosis because the PAP smear is a viral situation and Ovarian cancer is not detectable unless a good doctor like Dr Mary Ellen Coulter is able to find it in an examination or by a pelvic ultrasound. WOW what a bummer that was, and chemo and two major sugeries NOW THAT IS DEMISE! My wonderful husband not only stayed at my side through 2 major surgeries & chemotherapy he had to deal with keeping the Plaza going to be the best built 130,000 sq ft building in Bend. Super guy and I love him more every day. It is strange to me that a Blog Person would hope for my demise in a business deal (no big deal there will be another one if this deal it REALLY does not work out because of our present market. If BLOGS were around when Bill Smith was begging for money from Les Schwab & Matt Day in the original days of his dreaming of an extension of town in the middle of an old abandoned mill site, DEQ disaster, fixed, now known as the Old Mill. Thank goodness Blogs were not around then. He would have been on your hot plate. Blogs were not around to call for Haydens demise for his BLUFFS above the REED MKT round about that has been selling product for 5 years, OTTER RUN on the market for 6 years, OLD MILL QUARTER or any other product. ALL of these projects have their struggles but never had BLOGS to call for their demise. For all of the BLOGGERS, please come by any day of the week to see THE PLAZA. To the Blog that said we had, cheap anything, finishes they are confused with other products on the market. We are all custom, and gorgeous. No plastic inserts or plastic anything. Bathrooms & kitchens are all custom finishes. But only you can see for yourself. Remember if you come by it is the BRICK BLDG on Bluff Drive next to AMERITEL INN not THE BLUFFS above the REED MKT round about. You do NOT have to buy one if you come and see it, I promise, but you should have the real knowledge. By the way, this is my first BLOG so I hope I did it right. I am 58 years old last October 24 and have been working since I was a kid every day for my up keep with no gimmees from anyone. I love my life here in Bend (19 years now) and I love my grandbabies. I love my job and my health which is hopeful. I even like all the bloggers because we are just people trying to get by and live through the day whatever the day gives us. You all take care and stay healthy. BB

TimToe:
And Becky, I know you want people to buy now. But the Case-Shiller S&P housing futures predict a national downturn in house prices until 2011. When you tell people to buy now, you're giving advice that's contrary to some of the smartest people in the world betting big money. The country went from 61% to 69% home ownership. It's obvious that many of those people couldn't really afford the houses they were being shoveled into. Those poor people were done a great disservice and they AREN'T coming back to buy houses soon. We've run out of suckers. You tell people to buy, but there are no more buyers. Sure, investors could buy, but they aren't dumb enough to buy when YOU tell them to buy.

There follows a tedious enumeration of the evils of censorship, but this thread does illustrate 2 things of particular interest:

1) First, that "censorship" in whatever form is inherently BIASED. Is it WRONG? I'm not sure how to define that, or if it's even relevant. But when you CENSOR people, you are typically working from pre-conceived notions that can terribly misplaced, as you can easily see above.

Is BendBB the worst offender around? Hell no! Cascade Business Buttbangers will go down in my book as the most ridiculously biased rag to ever grace our scrub. The Bulletin & KTVZ are a (distant) second.

But unfortunately this thread & another regarding the tracking of IP's for the sake of "banning" marked my quiet departure from BendBB. Again, it wasn't a Virtual Walkout or anything, it just became quite apparent that BendBB had a wholly different philosophy than I did about what gathering opinions, making decisions, and voicing your thoughts on this place. No one really wrong or right, just different philosophies.

You can say whatever you want here, uncensored, and I don't track fuckin' IP's. I don't want to know who you are (unless you're like Dunc, and you want us to know), and know full well that technological attempts to do so are riddled with impossibilities.

2) You see the bias inherent in people's own opinion's with "Becky's" repeated encouragements for you to "buy a house now"! As a quick aside, let's see how this advice works out.

First, NOD's filed:

Nov 07 - 80
Dec 07 - 70
Jan 08 - 91
Feb 08 - 109
Mar 08 - 113 through 3/27 (nine on 3/27 alone)

Or units sold? Again, MST:

2007
Sept. 113
Oct. 112

Nov. 94

Dec. 79

2008
Jan. 72
Feb. 55

OK, so maybe prices are better? Hmmm... from "MST" over on BendBB:

2007
Sept. $330k
Oct. $320k

Nov. $340k

Dec. $339k

2008
Jan. $312k
Feb. $315k

And the latest medians that I am "hearing" are in the high $200's.

Becky's pleas for you to purchase a home last November seem.... uh, wrong. Why? She is an expert in Real Estate right? She & others just like her are interviewed with nauseating regularity in our local media, as Real Estate Experts, right?

The first, and most obvious reason, is a point covered with pendulum-like frequency here: This town employs "three times" the state average in the real estate trade, a figure so laughably low I have to chuckle every time I see it. Real Estate IS Bend. Take away the RE Bubble, and what do you think this town would be? Sleepy little mountain town, no Trader Joe's, no Bend River Promenade (oh God), no STD's... just a little town without many economic prospects.

This town is literally run by RE-slanted Boss Hogg's. You can see it in the predisposition of the COBA-fueled nightmare; they assumed that firing up an onslaught of biased PR was How You Got Things Done. "We'll run real stories, national in scope and negative in opinion, off the local front page, by unleashing a torrent of Good News written by Us". They saw & to this day, see no problem with such tactics. Bias is their tool of choice.

But second, these people literally cannot see any other point of view. I think that Becky, God bless her, in her heart of hearts BELIEVES that real estate is a Great Idea And You Should Buy, and that she will believe that to the bitter end. She believes it at $340K medians, she believes it today at $285K medians, she will believe it in the future at $195K medians. She isn't wearing rose colored glasses; they've been lasik'd to her eyeballs.

Now I just love Becky and think she's a sweet gal, and BendBB is probably a good guy & if I met at a bar, we'd probably be exchanging sweet, sweet man love in the back of his BMW after a six-pack of Abyss, and Costa & Hollern are also probably good guys, too.

But folks, these people DO NOT have your best interests, nor mine, at heart. They do not give a fuck if you live or suck dirt. They are out for themselves, like most, and cramming a fuckin house down your throat AT ALL COSTS is what about 50-60% of Bends economy is geared towards.

When you read something along the lines of "Who could have predicted things would get this bad...", you are reading the thoughts of the SELF-DELUDED. I have now seen this phrase used in virtually EVERY Bend Bulletin issue for months. It's been in the national media even longer. Bernanke says it all the time, this countries top economist, local economists, Economic & Finance professors, Realtors, our President, our Chamber members, and on and on.

This country is STILL deluding itself EN MASSE about just exactly what is going on. This IS NOT like all the other "slowdowns". It is so radically different, this country will NEVER BE THE SAME when it's over. NO ONE wants you to think that; that's like screaming "Fire!" in a crowded movie house... or is it screaming "Movie!" in a crowded fire house? Anyway, NO ONE is going to be "made whole" if Armageddon actually happens. No one, not me, not you. It'll be hell.

Wonder how BAD it'll be & why this is The Big One, and you ain't never seen the Big One before? Ok, ask yourself these questions:

1) Did you ACTUALLY lose money in the 1987 crash? That was a Big One, but I don't know many people who lost a "lot". In fact it was a few short years before the Dow was at new highs. Hell, I actually made money in Eastman Kodak puts!

2) Did you get hurt during the Gulf War fall? Again, this was a short-term up & down affair.

3) What about the Thai baht collapse or Long-Term Capital collapse? Nothing here, and I don't know anyone who personally suffered big losses.

4) What about the collapse of the NASDAQ bubble? I DID have friends who suffered some substantial losses on this one. But nothing permanent. They had other assets, and besides they were young & their future income stream was really their biggest asset.

5) Who do you know that will be negatively affected if their home price is CUT IN HALF?

See, that last one is The End. That's just Game Over, because it affects SO MANY PEOPLE & IT AFFECTS THEM TO A DIRECT FINANCIAL DEGREE UNMATCHED IN THEIR OWN EXPERIENCE AND TO AN EXTENT UNMATCHED IN THE HISTORY OF THIS COUNTRY.

Bend is headed for a 50% off sale. The rest of the US, is probably not going that far.

But is it safe to say that the evaporation of $5-10 TRILLION dollars of wealth from 67% of this countries population is an absolutely unhearlded event that we have never even come close to witnessing?

You're damn right it is.

I don't want it to happen, I just see absolutely no other rational outcome. I keep hearing about this being the unfolding of the worst possible (and most unlikely) scenario unfolding in a serial fashion, each financial event even less likely to recur than the last.

Let me say this: It's NOT done.

We're having a little respite from the Bear Stearns plummet, and everyone seems to be coming out with Rosy forecasts galore, Maria Bartiromo saying ad nauseum that It Is Over, Bear Stearns marked The Bottom, and it's up and away from here.

This is a fundamental MISUNDERSTANDING of what is going on. This is chalking THIS phenomenon up to Business As Usual, and every negative financial event is a reason to Buy Stocks, Cuz Stocks In The U.S. Go Up, and anyone who violates that rule Gets Punished.

Bartiromo attests that each financial setback "rhymes" with all the others in U.S. history, and that the thing to do has always been BUY.

Folks, this one does not RHYME with anything. It is totally unprecedented. NEVER before have SO MANY stood to lose SO MUCH. This is not Wall Street that is losing. It is you & me, and virtually ALL the people we know. People at work, people in your neighborhood, people on this blog, me, Timmy, BendBB, Buster, Becky Breeze, Norma DuBois, Prineville, Sisters, Oregon... this fiasco is literally uncontainable.

The Fed has purchased junk bonds to shore up Friends Of Bush, but it's STILL JUNK. It will still go into default. But instead WE own it, not Bear Stearns exec's. This is our Minsky Moment.

The US is headed toward a fundamental shift in it's economy; the aftermath of this bubble bursting will go on for what amounts to the rest of our adult lives. Japan's bubble is still collapsing, almost 2 decades later. This will not be short, and it won't be pleasant.

What do I want to know?

Is there a way to mitigate losses, and even do well DURING this thing?

Well first, I would avoid purchasing a house at all costs, unless you are prepared to make, in economic terms, nothing for at least 20-30 years. Rent & Invest The Difference is my #1 Investment Thesis... maybe you've heard it before :-)

But Invest where? Well, if I definitively knew that, I wouldn't be writing this, but one idea that people seem to be flocking to seems bothersome to me: US Treasuries. There is massive flight-to-safety buying of treasuries, and yields are incredibly low now.

I do NOT see this being the case in 10 years. We have gone the STAGFLATION route in "solving" this bubble bursting problem, and I see treasuries as one of the WORST investments for the next 1-2 decades.

Of course, debt in general is completely toxic for the moment.

Stocks? This actually looks OK, given the horrible alternatives. Within sectors I would look for stuff as non-cyclical as possible, with ZERO debt. Pharma... Food & Beverages...hell, even take a flyer on commodity inflation & buy some gold stocks.... just a little though.

But real, large scale fortunes will be made in catering to The Great Unwashed, those who finally had to "Walk Away, and Not Pay". There will be MILLIONS of these debt-addled zombies walking the streets in the decades to come. Getting these people into homes, getting them cars, food, and life's other necessities will be Big Business.

"Bad Credit is OK" type businesses. Bartering. Day Laborer outfits. "Work For Food". My God, who knows what people will come up with to accomodate these people just surviving.

And remember: This WILL NOT be some small, insignificant "fringe" group; there will be MILLIONS AND MILLIONS of these people. They will be like blacks & women have been in past millenia: A huge addition to the workforce, that if utilized, will bring untold wealth "back" into our mainstream. Mark my words: There will come a day when broke ass Whitey will be implored by our Goverment (hopefully Obama, for the maximum cruel irony) to "come back to work", after being SOL & marginalized for years.

The stigma of being a deadbeat will eventually mostly go away.

Just remember this when you are reading pieces like the recent "Region's still growing, just not as quickly", from the Bulletin. Wonderful News, yes? We're Top 5 still, and all is well.

Hmmm.... but they buried the fact that we are 17th for the last year measured, which ended LAST SUMMER. A more recent survey of movers show a recent reversal and a VAST OUTFLOW from Central Oregon.

What's happened? Right, THEY went ELIZABETH TAYLOR on us, and smeared the lense with vaseline on some OLD ASS DATA. They want you to NOT PANIC, ALL IS WELL.

What's TRAGIC, is this strategy is backfiring; people are buying this line of BS and refusing to lower their asking prices. So no homes sell. Because there is no money. But Costa & Co do NOT understand that, and are relying on the past rhyming with the future.

"We did this last time & got the greatest explosion of local wealth EVER... we'll by God, do it again!".

Costa, you fuckin idiot, it is DIFFERENT NOW. The money is gone. Your pie-in-the-sky bullshit is burying this place. Nothing will sell until prices COME WAY DOWN. Why? Again, THERE IS NO MONEY left. Read about the money multiplier if you do not understand why.

Do people want to buy? Yes.

Can they buy at these prices? OF COURSE NOT!

Until the vast Bend RE complex REALIZES this Fundamental Truth, we are headed for an economic quagmire. We will NOT ESCAPE until there is some balance between INCOMES & HOME PRICES, AND we have built a diversified economy not utterly dependent on the extreme cyclicality of RE.

I know you have Good Intentions Becky, Norma, Pam, Hollern & the Rest, but Pollyanna scenarios cannot & will not happen here AGAIN. We had our shot, and instead of bringing sustainable industry of some sort, we doubled down on REd, and now we're screwed. OK, we're in the shits, and there's nothing to do about that.

BUT, we can End This Thing as quickly as possible. Stop trying to convince everyone that Bend is different. You are convincing sellers TOO, and they will NOT lower their expectations OR prices, and hence the quagmire continues.

Be straight. Stop REDACTING reality. We Can Take It. Your LIES only make things worse and they make it last LONGER. Stop saying there is ALWAYS A SILVER LINING in Bend, there is NOT. COBA is NOT going to change the fact that NO ONE can borrow ANY MONEY, no matter whether this is the Best Buyers Market in 20 Years, or 1,000 YEARS, and no matter whether rates are 5% or 0%. None of this matters anymore.

THE MONEY IS GONE, THE DREAM IS OVER. GET FUCKING REAL.

Well, Buster complains I'm not "local" enough... too much video... so here's what I thought was the most forward-looking piece I could find about the future of Cent OR:

Back to the farm for jobs

Laid-off workers line up for limited number of spots

By Lauren Dake / The Bulletin

Published: March 29. 2008 4:00AM PST


MADRASIn two weeks, the water will come.

Sucked up from the irrigation canal, it will spew out through the wheel-line irrigation system on Martin Richards’ Fox Hollow Ranch in Madras, softening the cracked soil.

Thirty-year-old Madras resident Walter Rivera will make sure the thirsty land on Richards’ farm receives the necessary water. Rivera was hired to help during the irrigation season on Richards’ farm this year. A laid-off Bright Wood worker, he was one of many searching for farm jobs this spring but one of the few who has actually found one.

Recent layoffs — at Bright Wood Corp., Contact Lumber in Prineville and the wood products manufacturer in Warm Springs, to name a few — are hitting the Jefferson County economy especially hard. The county also saw the indefinite postponement of the 1,223-bed, medium-security portion of the Deer Ridge Correctional Institution and the jobs that would have come with it. And last year, the Culver operation of the boat manufacturing company Seaswirl Boats Inc. closed, eliminating around 170 jobs.

For farmers, that has translated into an inundation of laborers looking for work.

“Two years ago, if I said I need 14 people by Monday, it took me two weeks to drum up bodies,” said Rob Gallyen, co-owner of Williams Land and Livestock in Madras. “And right now, heck, if I wanted 20 people I could probably have them here by this afternoon.”

At Bright Wood, Rivera earned $12.25 an hour, plus benefits. Now, he’ll be working longer hours, for $10 an hour, and without benefits.

“Ag jobs are at the bottom rung of the ladder,” Richards said. “Industry jobs are preferable, construction or Bright Wood, that pays better and it’s easier work. ... Farm work is dusty and dirty, and people look at it as menial. You use your brain at Bright Wood a little more.”

Farming in Jefferson County

The county’s climate is ideal for high-value seed crops — carrot, radish, garlic and grass seeds do well in the High Desert’s sunny days.

In the Willamette Valley, farmers fight the weather. The rain can hinder both the harvest and planting season. But in Central Oregon, the cloudless days lead to longer hours spent irrigating.

It depends on the farmer, the acreage and the crop, but most farmers prefer to hire seasonal labor to plant their crops and oversee irrigation to relying on machinery, Richards said.

“You have more quality control,” he said.

Mike Macy, of Culver, has around 1,600 acres of carrot seed, bluegrass seed, peppermint, wheat and potato crops. In past years, he’s replaced some manual labor with machinery.

“Two years ago, we bought some machines to help plant carrot seed; it requires one-fifth of the people we used to need,” he said. “And the main reason we did that was because two years ago we had a rough time finding people. Now, there are people everywhere.”

Long lists

Macy, of Macy Farms, Stan Sullivan, Kip Light, Jack Ickler and Phil Fines all have something more in common than being farmers in Jefferson County.

Each of them has a waiting list of farmworker hopefuls who stop by their property on a daily basis looking for work.

“They drive around, it’s been that way since I was a young kid,” Light said. “They knock on the door, or they see you out working and ask if you have any work.”

Gallyen said he has a list of around 70 people. And most farmers say they have two or three people stop by on a daily basis.

“Unfortunately, I can’t hire 240 people,” Gallyen said.

Many of the farmers, such as Gallyen, may eventually hire a few extra people when carrot seed planting goes into full force. But, for the most part, they keep the same crew they’ve had for the past 10 or 15 years.

Jefferson County has a short growing season and less labor-intensive crops than other areas, said Bart Eleveld, a professor at Oregon State University in the Agricultural & Resource Economics Department. That could translate into a tougher time finding farm jobs than other places in the state.

“I think people looking for jobs in that sector, well, there isn’t a huge backlog or a number of unfilled jobs,” Eleveld said. “In the Willamette Valley, or some places in Central California or orchard areas like Hood River or The Dalles, there is more hand labor required in agriculture, but I’m not sure if Central Oregon is bleeding in this area.”

Lucky break

There is one area, Eleveld said, where he has heard that Jefferson County farmers consistently need seasonal labor.

“One thing farmers use shorter-term labor on is irrigation,” Eleveld said. “Moving pipes and whatnot, but there isn’t a shortage of people in those positions.”

And Rivera had a connection.

His brother-in-law is Richards’ only full-time employee. On Feb. 25, Rivera received his last paycheck from Bright Wood, his employer of two years. With it came a pink slip. For two weeks, Rivera spent his days driving from farm to farm.

He applied for jobs online. He drove to Terrebonne, Redmond, Bend and Prineville. His name was one of the 70 or so on Gallyen’s list.

Rivera said he’s more relaxed now that he has an income again.

“As long as I’m making money,” Rivera said. “It’s not as big of a problem.”

But with a $500 truck payment, $900-a-month mortgage, two kids and an unemployed wife, money is tight.

At the Rivera residence, Sami Rivera, 36, explained how she hurt her back working at Contact Lumber in Prineville. Once she felt better and tried to get her job back, there was no job to get back.

“I had good credit,” she said, “but it’s taken a nose dive. I’m worried about the house. If we sell it, will we be able to get another one? We could lose everything. I’ve heard of people losing everything.”

The phone rang in the Rivera household, interrupting Sami.

“Not today,” Sami tells the creditor. “I’m not able to pay it today.”

She paused.

“Not for a while,” she said.

Still looking

Since most agricultural work is seasonal, farmers can’t afford to offer their employees benefits and therefore don’t report numbers to the employment office. So finding data on agricultural jobs is difficult and leads to mainly anecdotal information.

“Every shoe store, every dry cleaner, every staffing agency reports their employees to us,” said Mary Lewis, a monitor advocate for farmworker services with the Oregon Employment Department. “But federal unemployment insurance law doesn’t require every agricultural employer to participate in the unemployed system. Therefore, they don’t report to us. From the data perspective, it makes the data in agriculture different.”

Employment numbers for the county, however, are far from anecdotal.

The county saw a 9.9 percent unemployment rate for February, the highest February unemployment rate since 2001. The Bright Wood layoffs have not yet been factored into the unemployment rate.

Francisco Espinoza, 35, of Madras, said his job search has brought him face to face with the competition. On his job-seeking trips to Redmond and Prineville, he often runs into others who are doing the same.

“There are so many people who don’t have work,” Espinoza said.

Necanor Sanchez, 27, also of Madras, was out looking for work when it started to slow down at Mid-Columbia Lumber Products in Madras, and his days were reduced. Now, business has picked up again, and he’s working four days a week, which is keeping him afloat. But like Rivera, his name is on Gallyen’s wait list, just in case.

“Farm work is less skilled, and it’s lower pay,” Richards said. “Everyone wants to better themselves. And initially, when workers come, if they don’t speak English, they take these jobs. And as they learn English, it’s easier to get jobs at Bright Wood. If I was in their shoes, I think I would do the same thing.”

Richards said if he had enough work, he would keep Rivera year round — Rivera has already proven himself a capable, hard worker.

“It’s hard to find that kind of quality. If Bright Wood hired him back, he would probably go back,” Richards said. “We do see a higher quality of labor to choose from. I guess that’s the plus side of it.”

Lauren Dake can be reached at 419-8074 or at ldake@bendbulletin.com.

The high unemployment in Madras is the shape of things to come in Bend. But it's happening there now, instead of later like it will in Bend, because:

1) Brightwood is a "centralized" decision maker about whether half that town working or not, not a lot of individuals, like Bend's RE industry... so we keep hanging on by our 401K's.

2) Most of the people in Bend RE piled it up for at least a few years, unlike Madras, and believe it'll turn around soon, and are burning through their cash

But once the reality DOES sink in, this piece will illustrate what will happen in Bend: EVERYONE in the industry will be "kicked down a notch" in their employment skill set. It's called Underemployment. You make less, you do grunge work, your life sucks.

Yup, even in the shadow of an outdoor wonderland, your life still sucks.

You think we won't hit that 9.9% unemployment rate like Madras? Hell yes, we will! Not this year, but probably next. Sometime within the next 4-5 years we'll probably see the highest unemployment rates we've had in 20 years in Cent OR. We're at 8.3% right now! It was at 5.7% last Feburary! Hell, 10% unemployment for Bend is a slam dunk in the next few years.

All those $120K/yr Realtors will be working at coffee huts. All those mortgage brokers will be working at ski shops. All the "assistants" to these people will be working at Bachelor... and unemployed the rest of the year.

The INCOME is going away folks. And our esteemed Bend Mass Media is STILL trying to talk this thing up again.

People are leaving. Why? Hell, it's fun making money in Xanadu! But once the novelty has worn off, Xanadu ain't so hot anymore.

Stop trying to "convince" people that this place is a paradise & hence, All Will Be OK. It is a paradise, but that don't mean dink. But no force on Earth will stop Bend from imploding on itself, certainly no PR or Marketing crap. There's not enough money to save this town. We'll be littered with the Walking Dead, just like Madras, in a few years.

What will work?

1) Property Manager - rental numbers aren't going anywhere but up, and all the foreclosures will ultimately get bought by someone... and turned into rentals

2) Lawyer (legal asst) - Again, foreclosures galore, and scumbag vulture lawyers will be there to suck us dry.

3) Move out cleaners & painters - Residential mobility going UP, and you gotta clean the place each time.

4) Used stuff - Consignment shops might make a comeback when the money gets tight

5) Used RV's - People will need to live in something once their life in wrecked, typically a "one-payment" domicile.

6) Moving & storage - I think there's even a piece in todays paper about the ever increasing need to store stuff.

7) Cut rate Realtors - I think 6% is going bye-bye, and pay-for-service & cut-rate guys will take over the market. This is already big & getting bigger.

8) Car repair - We'll be fixing what we have, not buying new.

9) Ebay, etc - Since Bend's economy is a one-trick pony (Buy this overpriced house, PLEASE!), people will need to start to diversify their own economics geographically, if they actually do decide to stay here.

10) Gas station, Les Schwab - Hey, it's state mandated that someone fill our tank. And spike tires are just a given around here.

So there you have it! I ended on an upnote, even.

10 ways to make cash in the collapse of Bend.

270 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 270 of 270   Newer›   Newest»
Bewert said...

On the JR update:

Garz is putting a huge amount of faith in a beefed-up Metropolitan Planning Organization.

There are various dates, acreages, etc. being thrown around, all trying to say we will sell land this fall. But it doesn't really seem very realistic.

Garz want the MAI to do an assessment. I suppose that is our assessor versus the one that Kuratek buys off. And then--we fight over assessors. Have you ever heard of a better clusterfuck.

And I like Garz.

But the various scenarios, the various timelines, the various OK's from various governmental orgs, to say nothing about the various sources of funding.

Hmmm. Just didn't get a real picture on how it's going to work out. Just duct tape and hope at this point.

Had it out with Capell alone before the meeting. It turns out his mother is the sister of Todd Taylor's mother. So he is totally in the clear on voting on Knife River stuff.

It would be nice if he mentioned that in his campaign, but oh well.

The Natives Are Restless said...

"The importance of Trader Joes is it lets people be smug about saving money."

The importance of Trader Joes is that it allows Californicators to feel like they're back home.

Rather than acclimate to the old school, Central Oregon way of life, like they used to; this new breed (last 15 years or so) wants to change Central Oregon into SoCal Del Norte.

Anonymous said...

So, did you pussy whip him?

... or did you get pussy whipped?

Either way, you can still smoke him on the Exec Session stuff.

Bewert said...

Re: Either way, you can still smoke him on the Exec Session stuff.

You wouldn't believe the pressure I'm getting to sit down and shut up.

Which doesn't exactly work with me.

I must say, though, tonight was the first time that I've seen two policeman manning the door to the Executive Session. And several media people, like Dave Adams, that were outside like the rest of us useless scum.

This bullshit is really pissing me off. Mayor Bruce Abernethy couldn't even remember to announce the whole sentence, simply stating "..260.0".

How the hell does any tax-paying constituent have a clue as to what is being discussed behind closed doors in Executive Session.

It's so special, you know.

What do they insist on hiding?

Anonymous said...

"And several media people, like Dave Adams, that were outside like the rest of us useless scum."
===

You outside?

Bruce, the Bend Weekly reporter, outside?

Wazzzup widat?

--------
You wouldn't believe the pressure I'm getting to sit down and shut up.

Which doesn't exactly work with me.

This bullshit is really pissing me off.
---------

The screaming always gets the loudest right before they die. And these old coots are in a death spiral, they are just the last to figure it out.

Keep up the good fight.

Cops at the Exec Session doors. What a riot! In all your CC meetings, did you ever see the need to guard the doors?? They need cops at the PUBLIC session, where there is hot feedback from the public. Like some old granny is gonna storm the Exec Session.. gimme a fricken break!

Anonymous said...

You wouldn't believe the pressure I'm getting to sit down and shut up.

*

The rats aren't used to flashlights in the dark, the last 4-6 years has been a rat haven.

We need MORE gadflys with flaslights and press passes.

Brucey likes GARZ? Does that mean that he'll be fucking you and BENDBB? Isn't GARZ and BENDBB still married?

It's typical that gadfly bruce-pussy worships the GARZ, it must be that prison guard persona makes bruce think he's still in the cell where men are men, and gadflys are squeeze-boxes.

I have seen the hiring of cops to attend the city session many times in Oregon, its usually a mechanism to clear people out during a call to exec session. That way council don't have to bully, and they're gorilla can do it for them.

What happened to your press pass? I thought that was the whole point?

Anonymous said...

Yes, ALL costco seafood is farmed in caustic swamps, in 3rd world countrys.

There is NO edible food at Costco.

There is NOTHING wrong with eating well, its NOT cali, I would be to argue, to me cali is the fucking OLD MILL chuck-e-cheese, wonder-burger ( whatver its called ), olive-garden, you know Bend strip malls, ... that whats calis eat, thats why they're all sick. Fast food, frozen food, packaged food, ... COSTCO food.

TJ's is about eating well for cheap, and given that the majority on this blog are lard ass renters, its a little late to bother explaining what 'eating well' means, basically fresh oils, fresh fruit, and fresh vegetables. Fresh bread, ... Not eating DEAD FOOD.

'DEAD' be packaged, frozen, dried, canned, ...

Yes, TJ is a big deal in BEND, there are TWO fucking reasons I have to drive to the valley.

1.) Frys to buy computers
2.) TJ's to buy food.

Now if we can just get a Frys, we have a 'toy' Harbor-Frieght.

Bewert said...

Re: What happened to your press pass? I thought that was the whole point?

Good enough for the Secret Service but not good enough for the City of Bend, I guess. Patti wants a letter from Bend Weekly as well. I suspect some pressuring going on above me...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Doug Farmer out early this month:

FEB 08

Listings Sold: 69
Listings Expired: 92
Avg Square Footage: 2070
Avg Days on the Mkt: 208
Avg Sale Price: $ 414,694.
Median Sales Price: $ 315,00.
Active Listings Feb 29: 1827

MAR 08

Listings Sold: 95
Listings Expired: 83
Avg Square Footage: 2025
Avg Days on the Mkt: 177
Avg Sale Price: $ 378,514.
Median Sales Price: $ 293,000.
Active Listings Mar 31: 1991

----------------------------------

Jan 07

Listings Sold: 134
Listings Expired: 81
Avg Square Footage: 1937
Avg Days on the Mkt: 193
Avg Sale Price: $ 442,866.
Active Listings Jan 31: 1610

Feb 07

Listings Sold: 126
Listings Expired: 74
Avg Square Footage: 1897
Avg Days on the Mkt: 166
Avg Sale Price: $ 399,751.
Active Listings Feb 28: 1635

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Sorry.... should have been Feb + Mar 2007...

Feb 07

Listings Sold: 126
Listings Expired: 74
Avg Square Footage: 1897
Avg Days on the Mkt: 166
Avg Sale Price: $ 399,751.
Active Listings Feb 28: 1635

Mar 07

Listings Sold: 165
Listings Expired: 70
Avg Square Footage: 1957
Avg Days on the Mkt: 183
Avg Sale Price: $ 402,658.
Active Listings Mar 31: 1790

Anonymous said...

Come on, PDX has a Fry's, and they have 2 million people. Good luck with that.

TJ's isn't so bad. They have some good things at reasonable prices, and they have the lowest cheese prices in town if you don't/can't go to Costco.

I don't buy that farmed shrimp at Costco. I only buy the wild stuff from Canada. I tell the checker EVERY time I buy it, that they're wasting their time on me with Kirkland shrimp, because I will NEVER buy it. I'll go to Freddy's and get USA shrimp if I need big ones. Which is rare.

Anonymous said...

Despite rising defaults, local officials expect small impact from aid
By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin
Published: April 03. 2008 4:00AM PST

A pair of local officials — one a banker, another a credit counselor — were skeptical Wednesday about the effects that Senate legislation could have on homeowners facing foreclosure in Central Oregon, saying the money won’t address the region’s problems and will likely go to other states first.

Benefits of the national legislation — which would include $100 million to expand counseling services for homeowners at risk of defaulting on their loans — would trickle slowly to Oregon, a state that hasn’t been hit as hard by foreclosures as Arizona, California and Florida, predicted Bob Mullins, a money management volunteer for Bend-based Consumer Credit Counseling Service of Mid-Oregon.

“The government money is going to hit places that are much harder hit first,” Mullins said.

Business, though, has spiked in mortgage-related traffic at Consumer Credit Counseling Service, a free credit counseling bureau affiliated with the national nonprofit Money Management International, he said.

The number of mortgages entering the early stages of foreclosure during the first three months of 2008 nearly tripled the number in the same period last year, according to the Deschutes County Clerk’s Office.

This year, the county is on pace to more than double mortgage default totals of 2007, when 591 mortgages fell far enough into arrears to enter the first stages of foreclosure.

“The likelihood is that we are catching up with the rest of the nation,” Mullins said. “Deschutes County has been lagging behind,” he said. “It was only a matter of time before we started catching up. We’ve still got a ways to run because this started here later than in the worst parts of the country.”

Last year’s ratio of mortgage defaults in Deschutes County, about 7.6 per 1,000 housing units, was comparable to the next highest year on record, 2002, when the county had about 7.4 default notices filed per 1,000 housing units through the end of the year, according to an earlier report in The Bulletin.

The federal aid package could present an opportunity with tax breaks for local purchasers of foreclosed properties and local builders, but would not address local problems by stimulating sales in the housing market, said Robin Freeman, president and CEO of Prineville Bancorporation, parent company of Community First Bank.

Community First Bank has handled about six foreclosures on residential construction loans in the past three months, Freeman said.

“I’m not sure I see a lot of help (in the federal legislation),” Freeman said. “Compared to some of these bigger markets, it seems like where we’ve been hurt more is a lot of inventory on the market and there are no longer incentives to buy and flip a house. More than anything, we just need to work through that inventory. I don’t see anything from that (federal legislative) package that will help that right now.”

A lack of activity, not a rise in foreclosures, has been the problem in Central Oregon, Freeman said.

But the county’s data show that notices of early default, which are typically filed when borrowers fall three or more months behind on their payment, are on the rise.

Typically, about half of the notices of early default result in foreclosure, said Mullins of Consumer Credit Counseling Service.

The National Delinquency Survey, produced quarterly by the Washington, D.C.-based Mortgage Bankers Association, showed that Oregon ranked 49th in the nation in serious delinquencies in the fourth quarter of 2007, the latest data available. Only Alaska ranked better.

Oregon’s serious delinquency rate stood at 1.32 percent of all mortgages, according to the survey. Washington state was slightly higher at 1.39 percent.

The national percentage stood at 3.62 percent, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported, skewed by high numbers from Nevada, California, Michigan, Ohio and Florida. The rate of foreclosure starts in Florida more than tripled between the fourth quarter of 2006 and the fourth quarter of 2007, while the rate in California more than doubled.

Jeff McDonald can be reached at 383-0323 or at jmcdonald@bendbulletin.com.

Anonymous said...

As a case study on overpriced Bend RE, could someone tell me what they think this house is actually worth? (it seems to be in a good neighborhood)

It's the first one on this page:

http://ddarling.prunw.com/prudential_nw/modules/agent/agent.asp?p=featuredproperties.asp

MLS # 2802677

Address 1140 NW Union St

Anonymous said...

Address 1140 NW Union St

I would guess it to be "worth" around $150-$170k. Maybe a bit more, more possibly worth less.

It was last sold in May 2005 for $285k so unless some MAJOR renovations happened the market value of it currently is under that.

My guess is that neighborhood will see prices in the $150 per sq foot range. Of the 1116 sq feet of this house, 96 are the basement. I haven't seen the house but I can't imagine that it's very useful space.

A little birdie has told me of a pending sale in that neighborhood that is much more in line with my guess than the listing price. MUCH more.

Anonymous said...

A little birdie has told me of a pending sale in that neighborhood that is much more in line with my guess than the listing price. MUCH more.

***

Great insider info! Thanks! Helps to see a real-world example to realize how much some Bend RE is greatly overpriced. Sounds like a flipper for sure on this one! They missed the boat though.

Anonymous said...

Does anyone know the 'hood that weirdo pregnant "man" lives in? Oprah kept saying "Bend Oregon" on her show today -- even had some neighbors who said "we have tight community."

I want to make sure I never live in that particular community!! Seeing that he-she would make me puke.

They said there's lots of media around fighting for the story.

What a PROUD day to live in BEND!!!

Anonymous said...

TJ's is the best grocery store on the planet. Shhhhh. Don't let everybody know or it will just be even more crowded than it already is.

Anonymous said...

>>> Seeing that he-she would make me puke. <<<

Stupidity and prejudice are what make people puke.

Anonymous said...

Stupidity and prejudice are what make people puke.

****

No, crimes against nature make peoplel puke. Not to mention a lesbian trying to sell books by being a man having a woman. That's called a gay media whore.

Anonymous said...

No, crimes against nature make people puke. Not to mention a lesbian trying to sell books by being a man having a baby. That's called a gay media whore.

Bewert said...

Far, far off topic once again...

Bewert said...

BB2---your source for uptight sexual weirdness. Pay no attention to the medians dropping into the $200's.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Stupidity and prejudice are what make people puke.

I accidentally drank warm beer with cigarette butts in it. THAT is what makes people puke.

That and chicks with hairy-ass underarms (did you see those hairy ass underarms on her... it looked like she had Buckwheat in a headlock!), that squirted some love-spunk up her MAN-TWAT with a syringe! My God, did they HAVE TO tell us that?

Why did they tell us that? WHY!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And what's messed up... is that chick was DEAD SMOKIN HOT... before she was a he.

She was damn good looking. What a waste.

This town will need every hottie it can get once RE goes to hell & there's nothing but ass-ugly meth-whores.

tim said...

Hey, I got no problem with the man who is having a baby unless he tries to hang his clothes out to dry on a clothesline.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Not to mention a lesbian trying to sell books by being a man having a baby.

Yeah, this thing is 100% stupid. It's a chick squashing out a kid. Big deal. She got on Oprah cuz she's parading around as an ugly-ass man. She's still a broad.

Read between the lines: Bend is a town full of fruits & losers. THAT is what the USA heard about Bend.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I'm going to get me some syringes & love-spunk from hobo's to profit off the onslaught of freaks coming to Bend who want My Mystery Baby Tonic!

My God. I do not understand why this made any sort of national news.

I mean really: One lesbo squirts some love-spunk up the others gerbil-chute, and gets pregnant. Big fuckin deal! Why did I have to see this hairy bastards man-titties! When I want gay lesbo porno where one of the broads looks like Manuel the fruity gardener, I'LL RENT IT!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

OK, enough lesbo squirtage...

I think I may actually have to go to TJ's now that it's been properly approved by Life Cereal's Original Dude Who HATES Everything:

Buster.

Afterwards, I will debate whether or not to emasculate his HOMO-EROTIC love of fine food.

tim said...

http://tinyurl.com/2hk4oy

Anonymous said...

You guys are hoempathetic...get over it. Stick to the bubble.. This is the best news, for those that don't want new people to move here, to ever hear. All the PR in the world will not fix this :););)
It's good for Bend. I am sure he's not only freak in this town. Keep the spirit!! after this they will all stay away.

Anonymous said...

Come to Bend, Oregon -- where the women are barefoot and the men are pregnant.

LavaBear said...

I lived in New Orleans for a few years in a past life. That town is where freaks and drunks go to turn Pro. You'd barely look twice at a hairy pregnant man walking down Bourbon. Now in Bend it's big news. Even bigger than the best time in 20 years big. Reho's gotta one up to get that shit off top of the news. My suggestion would be a naked calendar of our local RE talent. That might do it.

The Natives Are Restless said...

Back in about 1977 at a party on Columbia Ave. I saw a guy take a big ol' swig of Copenhagen spit out of a can that he thought had Hamm's beer in it. Now that will make you puke. I know, I've seen it. Really.

LavaBear said...

>>Hamm's beer in it

The beer refreshing. Sure miss the 12 pack of pounders.

http://tinyurl.com/29hr7y

LavaBear said...

http://tinyurl.com/2ydud4

Bewert said...

And in an update related to Bend RE and all things JR and Exec Session, it turns out that our local upstart radio station KPOV was intimidated over me today, even though I have absolutely no official connection to them.

And even though KPOV is staffed by volunteers, who are accepted as members of the press (they had to provide list to the City today) the City seems to believe that because I am not officially "employed" by Bend Weekly, I am not a journalist by their official definition. Let me quote you from an email from Cheryl at Bend Weekly:

"Bruce,

I've been in contact with Patty by email after playing phone tag for a day. Even though we said you were a contributing writer to Bend Weekly primarily covering Juniper Ridge and local news for publication in Bend Weekly, and provided web URLs to your articles online so far - she then followed up and very specifically inquired if you were an employee.

We had to honestly say no, because to bend the truth may have put us at risk with the state employment department or the City, but once again reiterated your status.

She did not indicate that a status as a non-employee would definitively prohibit your request to be considered accredited media, but I have my doubts as to whether it'll be approved.

Let me know how it turns out.


So this sucks. I plan on confronting Patty Stell over it in the morning, and from their it's straight to the Attorney General.

Bend is looking smaller and smaller every day. Perhaps it is time to grow up.

Bewert said...

from there, dammit!

This is going to get very public and very ugly very quickly.

Bewert said...

OK, just emailed the press contact at the AG's office detailing all this, the pressure in KPOV today, as well the pressure on Bend Weekly. And I plan to confront Patty Stell in the morning. Should be interesting.

Anonymous said...

My God. I do not understand why this made any sort of national news.

*** Yeah, the hits keep coming -- he's/she's supposed to be in People this week! As someone not in Bend, I can tell you folks that this is making the town look WEIRD, big time!

Oprah interviewed one of the freak's neighbors and they looked to be progressive-ex-hippy types. This is going to send a big message out to weirdos everywhere. Well at least they might not be dirt-poor meth addicts -- what's worse?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

That updated Doug Farmer data is here:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pWE_FqZMoakiiXg-MDQMSeQ

Interesting numbers:

Months Inventory: 20.96 vs 10.85 last March

Median $/sf: $144.69 vs the earliest figures for Doug's data is May 2007: $182.63

Avg $/sf: $186.92 vs $205.75 last year. Highest? $241.86 in June 2006.

Total $ Volume sold: $35.9MM, down 46% YoY. Highest ever: $131.2MM in June 2006.

The Mar Avg of $378,514 is the second lowest ever average since Doug's data came out, only Dec 2005 is lower ($355K). The highest is June 2006 (of course!), $491,218.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

More good news:

Economy sheds 80,000 jobs in March

By Joanne Morrison 45 minutes ago

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Employers cut payrolls for a third month in a row in March and the unemployment rate jumped to a 2-1/2 year high, adding more evidence that a housing downturn and credit crisis may have pushed the economy into a recession.

The Labor Department on Friday reported that March non-farm payrolls fell 80,000, the biggest decline in five years.

Adding to the bleak picture, the department revised the first two months of the year's job losses to a total of 152,000 from a previous estimate of 85,000. The March unemployment rate jumped to 5.1 percent from 4.8 percent, the highest since a matching rate in September 2005.

The March job report was more bleak than expected. Economists polled ahead of the report forecast a decline of 60,000 in non-farm payrolls and a rise in the unemployment rate to 5 percent.

U.S. government debt prices jumped on the weak data as financial markets anticipated more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. The U.S. dollar and stock index futures fell.

"There doesn't appear to be any silver lining. It shows that we're right in the middle of a recession that will probably take a while," said Carl Lantz, U.S. interest rate strategist at Credit Suisse in New York.

"Our expectation is that it will be a longer recession than the last two and we're just in the beginning," Lantz added.

During the first quarter of this year job losses averaged 77,000 a month, compared to average monthly gains of 76,000 in the last half of 2007, according to Keith Hall, Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner.

Job losses were widespread in March, with the biggest losses in construction and manufacturing. Factory employment fell by 48,000, the biggest decline since July 2003.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Adding to the bleak picture, the department revised the first two months of the year's job losses to a total of 152,000 from a previous estimate of 85,000.

Just goes to show: ALWAYS be suspect of the numbers coming from this David Lereah trained government. They have been OPTIMISTIC on every big data release forever.

Bewert said...

What were seeing is just a taste of what's to come:

Lenders Buried By Foreclosures Let Late Borrowers Stay in Homes

April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Banks are so overwhelmed by the U.S. housing crisis they've started to look the other way when homeowners stop paying their mortgages.

The number of borrowers at least 90 days late on their home loans rose to 3.6 percent at the end of December, the highest in at least five years, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association in Washington. That figure, for the first time, is almost double the 2 percent who have been foreclosed on.

Lenders who allow owners to stay in their homes are distorting the record foreclosure rate and delaying the worst of the housing decline, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com, a unit of New York-based Moody's Corp. These borrowers will eventually push the number of delinquencies even higher and send more homes onto an already glutted market.

``We don't have a sense of the magnitude of what's really going on because the whole process is being delayed,'' Zandi said in an interview. ``Looking at the data, we see the problems, but they are probably measurably greater than we think.''

Lenders took an average of 61 days to foreclose on a property last year, up from 37 days in the year earlier, according to RealtyTrac Inc., a foreclosure database in Irvine, California. Sales of foreclosed homes rose 4.4 percent last year at the same time the supply of such homes more than doubled, according to LoanPerformance First American CoreLogic Inc., a real estate data company based in San Francisco.

Reluctant Banks

``Some people stay in their houses until someone comes to kick them out,'' said Angel Gutierrez, owner of Dallas-based Metro Lending, which buys distressed mortgage debt. ``Sometimes no one comes to kick them out.''

Banks are reluctant to foreclose on homeowners for a variety of reasons that include the cost, said Peter Zalewski, real estate broker and owner of Condo Vultures Realty LLC, a property consulting firm in Bal Harbour, Florida.

Legal fees and maintaining a vacant property while paying the mortgage, insurance and taxes can add up to as much as 15 percent of the value of the home, and it may take months for the foreclosure to work through the legal system, he said.

``The end result is taking back a property that the bank will have to manage, rent out and or sell,'' Zalewski said.

In many cases, lenders also have to foot the bill for fixing up vacant homes that have been vandalized.

Real estate broker Georgia Kapsalis is offering a home for sale in Birmingham, Michigan, a Detroit suburb, where the owner last wrote a mortgage check in July. He still lives in the house, she said.

Empty Houses

``Some of the banks just don't want the houses to be empty, especially if it's in an area where there's a lot of theft or there are five other houses empty on the street,'' said Kapsalis, who works at Added Value Realty LLC in Livonia, Michigan, another Detroit suburb. ``They'll lose toilets, plumbing, appliances, everything. Banks are getting wise and allowing people to live there longer.''


Alexis McGee, president of Internet database Foreclosures.com in Sacramento, California, said she toured a property where the departing resident tried to make off with the outdoor air conditioning unit by sawing the metal legs off its concrete apron.

``People take what they want to take,'' McGee said. ``They feel that they're owed.''

With home sales dropping and national inventories rising, the lenders have another reason to delay foreclosures, said Howard Fishman, a real estate investor based in Minneapolis.

``What are the banks going to do?'' Fishman said. ``They don't want the house. They have a mortgage for $1 million and the house is worth $750,000.''

Flooded Market

Five million existing homes were sold in February, down 31 percent from the peak of 7.25 million in September 2005, data compiled by the Chicago-based National Association of Realtors show. More than 4 million existing homes were on the market in February, 53 percent more than the 2.6 million average of the past nine years, the Realtors reported.

``Excess inventories pose the biggest risk to the market,'' Michelle Meyer and Ethan Harris, New York-based economists at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., wrote in a report last month. ``As long as inventories are high, home prices will fall.''

Growing inventory pulled median home prices down to $195,900 in February, a 15 percent drop from the peak of $230,200 in July 2006, the Realtors said.

The civil court in St. Lucie County, Florida, is getting about 44 foreclosure cases to file every day. That's the same number it averaged in a typical month in 2005, said Clerk of the Circuit Court Ed Fry.

`Moral Hazard'

``It's pretty overwhelming,'' he said.

Fry said he has 12 full-time employees and two temporary workers he just hired handling nothing but foreclosures. Still, the 50-page filings sit in cardboard boxes for three weeks before the court staff can process them, Fry said. Then it takes another two months to get a date on the court docket, he said.

Mortgage servicers, who collect monthly payments and are responsible for starting the foreclosure process, also were caught short-staffed, said Grant Stern, a mortgage broker and owner of Morningside Mortgage Corp. in Miami Beach, Florida.

``The most experienced people you can bring in are origination people,'' Stern said. ``But for a bank it's a moral hazard to have the same people who originated the loans now modifying those loans. That wouldn't be desirable. Once around is enough.''

Servicers Expand

The five largest servicers -- Countrywide Financial Corp., Wells Fargo & Co., CitiMortgage Inc., Chase Home Finance Inc. and Washington Mutual Inc. -- together manage more than half the home loans in the U.S., according to New York-based National Mortgage News, an industry publication.

While more than 100 mortgage originators have suspended operations, closed or sold themselves since the beginning of 2007, mortgage servicing units are expanding.

Chase Home Finance, a unit of New York-based JPMorgan Chase & Co. and the fourth-largest U.S. servicer, expects to spend $200 million more servicing loans in 2008 than it did last year, said spokesman Thomas Kelly.

Kelly wouldn't say how many Chase borrowers have quit paying their mortgages and remain in their homes.

Efforts to keep borrowers paying their bills have slowed the foreclosure process, Mark Rodgers, a spokesman at CitiMortgage, a division of New York-based Citigroup Inc., said in an e-mail message.

Delayed Foreclosure

``In a number of cases, we have delayed foreclosure proceedings to allow our loss mitigation teams additional time to explore potential solutions to keep distressed borrowers in their homes,'' Rodgers said.

Joe Ohayon, vice president of community relations for Wells Fargo Home Mortgage in Frederick, Maryland, a unit of San Francisco-based Wells Fargo, said trying to modify loan terms case by case adds time to the foreclosure process.

``Foreclosure is only a last resort after all available options for keeping the customer in the home have been exhausted,'' Ohayon said in an e-mail message.

Olivia Riley, a spokeswoman at Seattle-based Washington Mutual, said in an e-mail that the company's goal is to keep customers in their homes ``with payments they can afford.''

Representatives for Calabasas, California-based Countrywide, the biggest U.S. mortgage servicer last year, didn't respond to requests for comment.

Few mortgage companies will admit they allow homeowners to stay in their homes without paying their bills.

State Laws

``No servicer will say you can live rent-free for six months, go ahead,'' said Paul Miller, a mortgage industry analyst at Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co. in Arlington, Virginia. ``Eventually, the servicers will clear these guys out.''

Homeowners usually get 90 days to resume paying before foreclosure proceedings begin with the filing of a complaint or notice of non-payment.

State laws determine the length of time between the filing and an auction of the house. In most states, it's two to six months, according to Foreclosures.com. In Maine, it can be up to a year and in New York, 19 months; in Georgia, it's as quickly as one month, and in Nevada, it can be 35 days, according to the database.

Borrowers in California who fight foreclosure can stretch the process to 18 months, said Cameron Pannabecker, chapter president of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers and president of Cal-Pro Mortgage Inc. in Stockton.

That doesn't take into account the woman he knows who hasn't made a mortgage payment in eight months and hasn't heard from her lender, Pannabecker said.

``Now she's afraid to mail in a payment for fear it'll come to somebody's attention,'' he said.


Source

I was looking at an interactive map that someone posted a link to on BEMworld yesterday, and it looks like about 25% of local mortgages from the last few years will be resetting this year. That's a big spike coming.

Bewert said...

In the category of "People just don't want to hear about it getting bad":

My wife just got up and got on me for being so "doom and gloom" last night. She loves her new job working with Norway at the shop and doesn't want to hear about unemployment nearing 10%, etc. and that Bend might get pretty ugly if things keep going the way they are. So there you have it.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Damn Brucey... you need to get some sleep.

tim said...

The story on lenders not taking houses is getting traction. I've started seeing it all over this week.

The story is that if the bank thinks your house is in an area where prices aren't going up for years, they won't take your house because they'll be liable for PAYING TAXES if they do.

The upshot? Prices don't come down fast enough to solve the freeze. And all levels of gov't suffer fro the lack of taxes being collected.

tim said...

Bruce, there's something to be said for your wife's desire to maintain a positive outlook. Enjoy family and friends as much as you can. But pure neglect of the real situation is foolish. I try to maintain a mental on/off switch and go with optimistic most of the day but realistic when it comes to planning for the future.

Optimists are foolish. But pessimists are depressed.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

That's a good piece by the way, Bruce.

Can't help but chuckle that the frantic attempts to keep the plates spinning, does nothing but drag the process out longer.

The Fundamental Truth is that We Owe An Amount That Our Incomes Cannot Pay. Period. You can't "work-around" that. All you can do is forgive part/all of the debt. But then you're left with a person unable to borrow & buy for 10 years.

All attempts to mitigate the problem are simply ensuring that it'll last longer & go deeper than anyone thought possible.

Raise interest rates or call a loan from someone on the edge? Do they think that'll HELP the situation? Hell no, just throws another person into default.

For every "Duncan" who CAN handle it financially, there is someone who can't. They are RESTRICTING debt NOW to somehow make up for the loose terms of the past 5 years. That just makes things worse. Should have reigned things in back in the Greenspan years. But no.

My God. There's nothing to do here. Let it unwind. It's going to anyway. Gov't should step back & let'er go. It'll be over faster, the market will self-adjust, and we'll recover faster.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Optimists are foolish. But pessimists are depressed.

I guess I'm optimistic about the Depression that is coming. I think people who banked cash & acted responsibly will have their wish come true & will be able to buy a decent house, dirt cheap... in a few years.

Bewert said...

Timmy, I'm working on it. Realism, without the gloom and doom.

BTW, at the end of the little one-on-one I had privately with Capell the other night, I mentioned that we are on the verge of imploding around here, referring to the foreclosure crisis and City's fucked up financial affairs with revenues quickly decreasing below each new projection. His response was "That's what you think!"

I saw the name of a friend in the NOD list yesterday, so it really hit home.

Anonymous said...

Bruce said:

"I'm working on it. Realism, without the gloom and doom."

But you've said that you're renting -- therefore, you will get hurt by the general economy, but not nearly as much as those who actually OWN real estate here.

And if you're renting -- you can fairly easily move on to greener pastures -- IF it gets that bad (which I don't think it will).

Anonymous said...

... banked cash & acted responsibly will have their wish come true & will be able to buy a decent house, dirt cheap... in a few years.

****
Whoa, slowdown there hotshot -- I thought when it goes to crap all the Bend crapshacks will become meth shacks, U.S. money will drop to $0 value, and we'll be armed to the teeth to protect our one meal of roadkill per day. Now you're saying we'll finally live in our dream world where we can finally own an affordable home. I'm calling you on this -- which future do we face (in your opinion)?

Anonymous said...

will be able to buy a decent house, dirt cheap... in a few years.

****
Whoa, slowdown there hotshot

*

Good call, like I have said here, when it gets to the bottom, you'll NOT be able to get money, almost there now.

A 'decent house' the only homes that will be flipped is foreclosures, that that don't have to walk, are the ones with nice homes.

Like I have said here from day-one, foreclosures are always shit-holes.

I don't know who is suggesting here that soon, folks that were brown-nosers will get a nice home for cheap.

Most likely just a troll.

People want to have it both ways, I think its ONLY homer that gets it, .e.g. when we finally hit bottom, you'll NOT want to buy here. Like I have said from day-one, once we hit bottom, you only be able to pay cash, and 99% of you have NO cash.

Thats been the whole game here all along, a bunch of renters thought they would use this forum as a observation point of the collapse of Bend RE, hell yes its going to collapse.

Nice SHIT by DEFINITION will not be a deal. Yeh, you'll be able to buy 100's if not 1,000's of remote siberians STD's, for nuttin, but so fucking what, they'll NOT be nice.

Only a home loved, by someone who owns the HOME ( that means NOT owned by a bank ) loves the home, and make its it nice.

This is the essential problem here, the 'renters' have NO fucking idea what a nice home fucking is.

We're already there now, you can get a crap-shack for under $100k, thats less than 4X, we're there now, if ANY of you dog-fucking chipmunk-eaters intend to buy 'nice-little-home' aka HOLLERN-HOTEL ( think hoover-ville ) its there NOW, today, what in the fuck are you waiting for??

NICE, REAL fucking NICE?? Let's say near Drake Park, a nice home well maintained and owned by someone that free&clear, you think you'll get that home for a fucking steal?? NO FUCKING WAY.

WHAT YOUR GOING TO GET is a manufactured home built in the last 5 years, that will become a mushroom factor in the next 5, that is what you'll find, and then you'll have the walker/foreclosure person who occupied that home trash it before the exit, if thats your idea of a 'home' then go for it, but then your all renters, so what the fuck would you know??

Anonymous said...

IF it gets that bad (which I don't think it will).

*

What is fucking 'bad', I have said that 1983 was the best of times, if you were here, you wouldn't Know what the fuck I was talking about.

We're still early, Bend is NOT going to get bad for another 1-2 years, we're like NOT even fucking close to the layoffs, and complete halt of almost all real work here.

'Bad', what is BAD??

For a realtor its been bad for over a year, for a blue-collar person this year will be bad, for services late this year will be bad.

If you got lots of money, and NO fucking bills, and OWN your own home, it will NOT be bad.

BEND has RE corrections every 20 years, bottom will be 2010, 'will that be bad', again its all relative.

Like HOMER says, we're already in a 'despression' ( over 10% real unemployment ), remember most in Bend work under the table, so the reported un-employment doesn't mean shit, real un-employment is already over 10%, my guess is next winter real un-employment will be over 20%, what is BAD??

Bad is NOT have food to eat.

Given that EVERYONE here can afford cable internet today, its not likely they'll be having it BAD in a year.

There are tons of people that have been hurting for 2 years in BEND, e.g. burning through their 401k, watching their 'home' savings account collapse in value, if your one of those its already bad.

Even during the Great Depression, un-employment was only like 25%, a lot of people had food, not all, but a lot of people didn't go to bed hungry.

Bend currently has over 5,000 homeless, you one of them? That's bad, but then 55k in Bend do have a home, ... How bad is Bad?

Think about Africa, India, or rural China, these places people never see clean water their whole lives. The poorest person in Bend, lives like a KING compared to a sub-saharan africaner.

What is 'BAD'??

Anonymous said...

Bruce,

If the idiots don't let you in the Exec Session as a reporter for BW, then THAT is a complaint worth writing up. A reporter is a reporter is a reporter.

Heck, even ICANTBELIEVEITSNOTBUTTER is a reporter, but I agree that would be a much harder row to hoe.

But Bend Weaklier? Come on! If you have a few bylines, then they can see that you are a reporter. If you don't get paid in dollars, then tell them you get 'paid' in intrinsic non-monetary joy of seeing your name in online 'print'.

Or just have that come back that maybe they ain't "REAL" City Councilors since they ain't on the City Payroll.

The bastards!! Sick 'em, Bruce!!

Anonymous said...

*


"Bad is NOT have food to eat ... What is 'BAD'??"


Ahh . . . good to see you're still alive and kicking, Buster. It was a boring afternoon.



*

Bewert said...

Re: The bastards!! Sick 'em, Bruce!!

And a smile comes at the end of a long week.

Thanks :)

Bewert said...

Re: If the idiots don't let you in the Exec Session as a reporter for BW, then THAT is a complaint worth writing up. A reporter is a reporter is a reporter

BUSTER, you are on a fucking roll. I'm a renter, yes, who has just replaced the dishwasher and replaced the kitchen faucet on Christmas Eve.

My landlord loves me. But then I grew up working on all the rentals my Dad owned and know the score.

Yes, a reporter is a reporter. It is particularly troublesome for the City that the Secret Service accepted my Press Pass, but they did not. I contacted the Oregon AG office, but they said it is between the City and Bend Weekly.

And, yes, it will be added to the ethics complaint on Exec Sessions.

As an aside, I would greatly appreciate it if someone stopped by the bike shop and mentioned to Trudy that my efforts are appreciated. She wants me to "focus on us", while I tell her the town we live in is part of us.

Anonymous said...

And, yes, it will be added to the ethics complaint on Exec Sessions.

*

Bruce, don't make it personal, that's what they're trying to do is change the subject.

For a long time I have tried to explain the dark-side of the force in Bend, it is strong. But you don't have have to 'bend' to their ways.

The fact that they have a rent-a-cop and/or armed guard at the meeting is to remove you, so they're not responsible.

Just play DUMB, and force them to make their move, don't MAKE the COMPLAINT about YOU, make the complaint about THEM.

The reason that they're putting pressure on the BW is to get you off their back, this shows that they're terrified of you.

There are many 'anonymous' here other than buster, don't assume we're all the same.

File the complaint, and CC: the governor, I have told you this now a dozen times. The governor will see to it that the correct people follow up. That is how you put Deschutes County and City of Bend on the HOT seat. Don't make it personal, this is how they'll destroy you. Make it about them, not about you.

Challenge the $5/hr rent-a-cop, its public property when they declare exec session, they'll use the #500 LB gorilla to evict you, if he touches you he loses his job, if you touch him he can sue you. Just sit tight, they'll relent. Once you get pass this point, you have their balls in your hand. You have NOTHING to lose, and they have all to lose.

Don't let it be personal, and never let it be about you.

Again, if they weren't at the end of the line, they wouldn't have security present, just like the last INNof7thMTN meeting Friedman had an armed rent-a-cop present, this is an old technique in Oregon of intimidation. Again just play deaf, they have NO power, other than the power to bully by presence.

On the subject of your press-pass, remember even HBM works for FREE and he IS the MEDIA of the source, so its BULLSHIT that non-paid, non-full time media don't count. They're just fucking with bend-weekly. Just hold your seat, your press-pass is just as valuable as the next-guy.

Worse to worse you could get them to setup you up as part-time employee for 1 HR/Mo ( < 240 HRS Quarter ) pay is non of anyones business. I wouldn't go that road personally, as MOST of eastern Oregon is people just like you acting as reporters as a civic duty on the behalf of small papers.

Make that FUCKING gorilla remove you, and arrest you, then when it goes to court, they'll throw it out because you have a valid press pass, after that your good.

This is WHY Rabbit-Dick sucker Abernethy & Freidman have their GAR ( bully ) to do the dirty work, so make him remove you, make them call the 'cops', make them arrest you for doing your job on public property. The court will be 100% behind you, and I'm sure most the media.

Remember this is a MOB town, everyone is in FEAR.

Regarding your wife, I would keep her out, more than likely rather than a good heart telling her your doing the right thing, a HOLLERN close will tell her you doing the wrong thing.

Don't make it personal, keep your family out.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

His response was "That's what you think!"

Brucey, Capell is a witless airhead, who actually owns a franchise that used to be called COMPUTER MOMS. For years, that dumbfuck actually defended that name as a "real asset". I had a conversation with him about it once, and he swore that name was the greatest thing since sliced bread. It was changed a few years later.

No matter what the hell the situation, Capell will plant his stupid ass head firmly in the sand & declare everything is A-OK. He is a true dumbass.

Bewert said...

Re: Just play DUMB, and force them to make their move, don't MAKE the COMPLAINT about YOU, make the complaint about THEM.
...
Don't make it personal, keep your family out.
...


That's pretty much what I've been doing, just pressing forward as if it doesn't really make sense to me.

It is personal, unfortunately. When you personally confront people, that's just the way it is. Can you imagine confronting Capell after filing the complaint, him and me, no one else in the room? That's the reality.

But I just don't know of any other way to really get things done.

Trudy's scared of the backlash. That is the hardest part for me. I don't really care what Capell, etc. think. But I very much care what my wife thinks.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Whoa, slowdown there hotshot -- I thought when it goes to crap all the Bend crapshacks will become meth shacks

Well... true. Prices will go to shit. And there will be meth shacks galore. But given the choice between a Bend overrun with Cali-banging Escalade driving assholes, and some whacked out methers holding me up every few years... I'll take the latter.

Californicators make me want to kill myself. They are the worst thing that's ever happened. Ever. Meth cookers are far better.

And I've said that I think Bend will bottom out in the high $100's. That is pretty affordable to me. The US is on a slow glide path down, but we're to big to kill overnight.

A lot of what you're talking about is Buster-time. I agree with many of those ideas... some are a little more extreme than what I'm thinking of.

Anonymous said...

"There are many 'anonymous' here other than buster, don't assume we're all the same."

+

So true.

And also true that you should not make it personal.

You have no case for an Ethics charge about them refusing your press pass.

They will delegate that task, and if the Board Secretary or some other Board functionairy dismisses you incorrectly (or illegally) it wasn't their (the CC's) fault. No fault, no fine.

But the Exec Session rules violation, that they own.

Stick to what they own, not the little slights. You can wait a bit to get into the Exec Sessions. (I've said before, you will get very bored there... not much really happens there.... most of the time.)

Also, you will need to plan a strategy for once there. You will have to (by law) not report (or leak) what you hear there, unless you trick them into repeating (into your microphone) the same info when they are out of Exec Session.

Are you really ready to hear the back-door debate, and then have to remain silent on how the sausage is getting made?

Anonymous said...

Bruce,

I will stop in and tell your wife that you should fight the good fight. I love what you are doing...little or a lot. Why not form a business, register with the state and become a sub for BW? Plenty of real reporters are contractors. I'll finance it...fuck em!

Anonymous said...

Trudy's scared of the backlash. That is the hardest part for me. I don't really care what Capell, etc. think. But I very much care what my wife thinks.

*

Bruce-Pussy, lets talk buster for a moment. I'm NOT allowed to do politics, my wife says it brings out the crazy in me. I'm NOT even allowed to blog. You think for a moment my wife even knows I'm typing? A big NO.

I think you give YOUR wife way too much info, you give US way too much info.

You came here to be loved, I told you from the start that you would NOT be loved. Bend is going DOWN, and hard, and making yourself a lightening rod in such times is NOT smart, and rubbing the shit in your wifes nose is fucking DUMB, keep her happy, buster keeps his wife happy. Don't tell your wife shit, you do this stuff to be loved, but everyone will hate you, you tell your wife that your pissing off the boss-hoggs in the city and it scares her. Women want security. How fucking stupid are you??

Why do this dumb shit, and then dump it on your wife? Why do you even get your wife involved? Like telling us she has health problems, telling us to visit her, ... Bruce your fucking weird.

Talking about glide-path, I got to get my annuals done, I got to get up to Nanaimo, and I got to spend the spring fishing in Big Bay.

Lastly on Capell. I know Capell he's got very bad back problems, and has a lot of problems. He's probably worrying about why he is even doing this shit. Don't make Capell the issue, make the FUCKING system the issue, the way folks run Bend.

Anonymous said...

Brucey,

Personally what I would make issue on exec-sess is-was the Dec 12, 2006 Les-Schwab sales agreement, how it went into EX-SESS, and the doc that resulted the whole fucking thing.

That would accomplish several things.

1.) Rescind the WHOLE Les Schwab deal, and get our $20M back ( Knife-River ), but ALL added-value went to LS.

2.) Hummel quit over this illegal meeting and document, focus on people involved that will talk, and help you write a complaint.

There were lots of exec-sessions in the past four year, but I really think this one with the one-hour to read the LS sales agreement was the worst. Whats good if you can start and investigation, then it forces the State media to look at the whole picture, e.g. Juniper Ridge, Les Schwab Welfare, Kuratek Lawsuit; Sleazy corrupt politicans, and how they do business.

You focus on the above and everything will fold, and we'll get our money back, and actually clean stuff up.

Lastly, don't fucking even talk about this shit with your poor wife. Make here happy, go road biking with her, do shit, but don't talk about your fucking politics.

We know WHO was FOR & Against the MEETING and resulting DOC, that is in the minutes, talk to folks against on&off record, and report everything, find out what was illegal, and make sure this never happens again ( $20M LS giveaway ).

Bewert said...

Re:
Personally what I would make issue on exec-sess is-was the Dec 12, 2006 Les-Schwab sales agreement, how it went into EX-SESS, and the doc that resulted the whole fucking thing.

Yeah, that is the biggie. There were two other illegal meetings as well, in Sept. 06 and in Jan 07. The $2.5 million payout to JRP is the other bookend. I've documented it all, recieved meeting Notices from the City that don't show up on their website or in the memories of local media, etc. It's going in today or Monday.

I can't not tell my wife when I go to CC meetings, etc. And having a friend of ours show up in the NODs brought some stuff out. I told her how bad of shape the City is really in, etc. But, yeah, I try not to talk about it too much. I think we can weather things around here once people really face up to them and put their delusions of grandeur on hold for a few years.

As far as "wanting to be loved", I don't know what to say to that. If nobody gave a shit, I probably wouldn't either. Other than maybe looking for a small city that wasn't quite so corrupt to move to.

Anonymous said...

I think all the info on sales for March is in by now.

Residential homes Bend:

89 sold
$293k median
1360 active
159 DOM

Burrito time!

tim said...

>>“As a weakening housing market appears to be dragging the American economy into recession, the International Monetary Fund warned this week that home prices in other industrial countries were even more overvalued. The fund also concluded that central banks should pay close attention to home prices and consider raising interest rates when prices are rising rapidly.”

“That conclusion is directly contrary to the established policy of most central banks, including the Federal Reserve, which ignores home prices when they are expanding.”

Global, people, global. This fall, expect the Euro to do a Dollar-like drop.

The Swiss are pissed at America for UBS's write-offs, but soon they'll be mired in their own disaster.

tim said...

http://www.sacred-texts.com/nth/tgr/index.htm

Perhaps that's the original version?

«Oldest ‹Older   201 – 270 of 270   Newer› Newest»