http://bendoregonbubble.blogspot.com/
YEAH!
Well, if you wondered what Armageddon looks like, go outside. This is it.
I posted an "Addendum" to last weeks post regarding mstuckers mid-Feb update on Month to date sales.
One home a day sold.
Not that that rate could possibly be sustained at such a low level, but that's 365 homes a year! We did 2,849 sales in 2005.
If there's anything I'm sure of, it's that number will pick WAY up. 6 months ago I was also sure that we could NEVER get to where we are today.
timothy said... The gears have ground to a halt. You can hear the silence. Next up: the flood of "spring" inventory.
As I've said before: This will get worse than you or I ever thought possible. Even Bends Gold Standard builders is starting to crack:
Anonymous said...
The layoffs are a comin'. Palisch homes just laid off 17 employees including 4 of their 6 superintendents. They were the last builder still slamming houses up. Supposedly unloaded the building that their offices are located in also. Maybe wal mart is hiring.
Even Duncan hopped on the Prediction Bandwagon, and NAILED IT!
So, I think we'll see the first battleground in the dining industry. Obviously, a lot of older restaurants are seeing the handwriting on the wall. The second battleground I'll predict -- with absolutely no inside knowledge, just a guess -- is in office space and condo's, especially on the west side. Third battleground are the outliers -- businesses and stores located in what may be zoned retail but not normally seen as retail.
BANG! The very NEXT DAY, the Bulletin runs this piece (and kudo's to them, I suppose, for running ANY sort of real estate piece... FINALLY):Area’s industrial and office space vacancies rising
‘If you’re in an expansion mode,’ says one local broker, ‘it’s a great time to be looking’
By David Fisher / The Bulletin
Published: February 24. 2008 4:00AM PST
When Chemica Technologies, a Bend-based biotech research firm, pulled up stakes and moved to Portland last year, the managers at Grace Bio-Labs didn’t hesitate.
Grace, a maker of patented labware for the molecular study of cells, was about to burst out of its space on Empire Avenue, Business Development Director Michelle Carney said. So it bought the building that Chemica left on west Bend’s Cyber Drive, complete with built-out lab space and offices.
Now Grace Bio-Labs, which has been in Central Oregon since 1986, has 2½ times more space for its 17 employees, with room to build out further.
“It’s very well suited to what we do,” Carney said. “So it was just a matter of being in the right place at the right time and having the right connections that we found this building when we did.”
Businesses throughout Bend and Redmond are finding industrial and office space easier to come by this year.
After three straight years of relatively tight vacancies and gradually rising lease rates, vacancies opened up in the fourth quarter of last year, Bruce Kemp, principal broker at Compass Commercial Real Estate, said Thursday. The change was fueled partly by a contraction in housing-related business sectors and partly by the effects of new buildings coming onto the market.
According to Compass’ quarterly survey of 177 buildings, office vacancies rose to 11.2 percent in Bend by the end of the year, nearly double the 6.5 percent of fourth quarter 2006.
Industrial buildings also loosened up in both Bend and Redmond, according to Compass’ survey. Bend’s fourth quarter vacancy rate reached 10.5 percent in industrial space.
Redmond’s reached 17.3 percent, bloated mostly by the addition of new buildings.
The total amount of space leased in both markets increased through the year, but not at the same rate of growth the markets saw in 2006. In Bend, 48,800 square feet of new office space was leased out through 2007 — less than half the 124,000 square feet that was absorbed in 2006.
Industrial absorption in Bend amounted to a little less than 85,700 square feet, according to Compass’ numbers, about 33 percent off the 2006 pace.
In Redmond, less than half as much new space was absorbed in 2007 as in 2006.
The bottom line for potential tenants is simple, Kemp said. Lease rates have remained stuck, but tenants are getting much better incentive deals from prospective landlords, ranging from richer tenant improvement allowances to several months of free rent, as landlords scramble to get their buildings filled.
“If you’re in an expansion mode,” Kemp said, “it’s a great time to be looking for space.”
Who’s looking?
After a moribund fall, activity in the commercial leasing market is picking up as companies, like Grace Bio-Labs, that are not related to the housing industry begin to realize that they might be able to find a decent deal on new space, said Steve Larsen, principal broker at Steve Larsen Properties.
Much of the interest seems to be coming from the nonhousing-related financial and service sectors — insurance brokers, lawyers, accountants — who have needed for some time to grow their practices to keep up with the expanding population, but have felt shut out by a tight leasing market, Larsen said.
Now, with monthly Bend office lease rates stuck in the $1.65 to $2 per square foot range, depending on class and location, and with landlord incentives rising, some are making their moves.
“I think there are a lot of people who have kind of been on the fence for a while through 2007 who are making those kinds of decisions, either because they are out of space or they can’t wait any longer,” Larsen said.
Still, there is an air of caution in the wind, Kemp said, and it’s tipping the weight of the market toward leasing rather than buying space, and toward holding off rather than starting a new building project.
From a tenant’s perspective, the factors that go into making those decisions can get complex, Kemp noted, but it boils down to a basic question: Is there more money to be made by investing in a building or by paying rent and investing the upfront cash back into the business?
Right now, market factors are tipping the table toward leasing, Kemp said. First, there’s the question of whether to invest in a building or in something else. With lease rates flat, it’s tougher for the income stream on a commercial building to compete with the 6.5 percent or more in simple interest that a similar investment could draw in the general economy.
Then there is the question of rising or decreasing real estate values, Kemp said: Right now, there’s downward pressure on the price of commercial buildings, and particularly fierce pressure on the price of commercial land.
Consequently, Kemp said, he would expect the major office buildings that are already under construction in Bend, including The ODS Cos. building at Wilson and Bond streets and the 38,000-square-foot Bonnett Point office building at the corner of Simpson Street and Colorado Avenue, to finish up and gradually fill up this year. But any new construction that starts is likely to be a build-to-suit project for a locked-in tenant — and he doesn’t expect to see many of those.
“It’s a little bit cautionary,” Kemp said. “I think people who may want to buy at some point in time are probably going to lease rather than buy right now.”
Office condos
That’s not to say that sellers aren’t trying.
Ron Ross, a commercial property broker for RE/MAX Equity Group in Bend, said he counted eight to 10 sales of commercial buildings in Bend in 2007. Last month, there were 66 commercial units listed for sale, Ross said. About half were buildings and the rest were office condos.
Office condominiums — buildings in which the tenants can buy a small piece of a larger building, rather than having to shell out the millions that it takes to build a full-sized, Class A structure — are a relatively new concept to Bend. Two of the largest, the 32,000-square-foot Vision Plaza building and the neighboring 11,420-square-foot Columbia View Suites, sit next door to each other on west Bend’s Columbia Street. Both have had units for sale for about six months and neither is close to full.
Ross is dubious of the concept’s staying power, particularly in a market that is already overbuilt.
“They just flat have not been successful,” Ross told a group of reporters and real estate agents at a Central Oregon Association of Realtors lunch Wednesday. “I’m sorry if I’m offending anybody here, but they have not been selling office condos.”
Larsen, the listing agent for Vision Plaza, said he has one of the building’s units under contract and another in negotiations. There are two letters of intent to lease some of its space — an option that wasn’t part of the owners’ plan when the building was built.
“Obviously, the last six months were not what I, as the listing agent, or the owners anticipated,” Larsen conceded, but he blamed the building’s slow sales more on market timing than on the concept.
It took more than 18 months to take the Vision Plaza building, where 1,200-square-foot units are listed for around $367,000, from the concept stage to completion, Larsen said. The market changed during that cycle — a risk that all developers of commercial buildings, most of which are large, expensive and time-consuming to build, face.
“If it were easy, everybody would be doing it, and for a while, a lot of people did. But it’s a risky business,” Larsen said.
That’s true, Ross agreed. The current market has driven out most of its speculators and tax-deferred property exchangers, leaving a different sort of playing field. But it’s taking awhile, he said, for some of its players to adjust.
“Property has to stand on its own, fundamentally, right now, and if it does, we have good buyer interest,” Ross said. “That means it has to have real tenants, with good leases that are supporting the price point. If that happens, property can sell in today’s market. But unfortunately, we have a lot of sellers who don’t understand that, and even a lot of brokers who don’t understand that, so we’re building up an excess of inventory.
“Long-term, I’ve seen this picture before,” said Ross, who’s been in Central Oregon real estate since the economic troubles of the early 1980s. “I’m actually very positive … you just have to take a bigger picture, longer-term view.”
David Fisher can be reached at 541-617-7862 or at dfisher@bendbulletin.com.
First off, lemme say that Duncan has been calling this for awhile. Personally I am fairly out of touch with commercial, except for a glimmer of personal knowledge that downtown is becoming wildly overbuilt, with unsustainable lease rates. I ultimately think that the credit/housing bust will affect EVERYTHING, but this was one of those things that's off my radar.Second, note that business expansion as measured by office space absorption has dropped in half in 2007 vs 2006. And 2007 was not really supposed to be weak. In fact, EVERYONE seemed to state repeadedly that commercial was 100% IMMUNE from the whole crdit/housing bust, at least in Bend.
My Lord, they were building commercial space like crazy in 2007!
I actually drank the Commercial Immunity Kool-Aid, and thought Bend commercial would be OK. I did NOT understand the economics of how that could happen, because I personally thought the lease rates were insane, and I thought the "office condo" had all the appeal of the "home condo": Nice if you love living wall-to-wall with your neighbors and sharing in the financial pain of the weakest link.
That horrible abomination out near Colorado will probably end up on the RIP board. Office Condo's? Geez, that'll end up being another collective "What the fuck were we thinking?" head slapper.
Apparently Dunc was right, and the only thing collapsing (Yes, they are collapsing. I don't need a freakin' dictionary to figure that out.) faster than the Bend housing market, is now the imploding commercial market.
We are headed towards a mega-glut in commercial space in Bend. Nice high, double digit vacancy rates, and all that good stuff. All those pining for The Good Old Days, circa 1983, in Bend will soon have their wishes granted.
The most interesting quote in the Bulletin piece, to me, was this:
Is there more money to be made by investing in a building or by paying rent and investing the upfront cash back into the business?
Yeah! My "Rent And Invest The Difference" motto is starting to get some traction.
Of course it would be considered far more quickly in a purely financial setting like commercial. Rent & Invest The Diff is harder to implement with your wife & kids involved.
OK, I agree with that.
Good job Dunc, on nailing this one!
So... what else happened this week?
Oh right. CACB revised their quarterly earnings to pocket change.
Huh, seemed like they had ironed out all the Q4 messiness last month:
Cascade Bancorp (Oregon) (Nasdaq: CACB) Released Results for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2007, Confirming Earnings Per Share at $0.19 and $1.23, Respectively
BEND, Ore., Jan. 23 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cascade Bancorp ("Cascade") CACB reported 2007 full year Diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS-diluted) at $1.23 per share down 8.4% as compared to 2006 with Net Income at $35.0 million versus $35.7 million for 2006. As pre-announced on January 3, 2008, the Company confirmed it recorded a $7.5 million (pre-tax) provision for credit losses for the fourth quarter of 2007 to increase the Company's level of credit reserves primarily related to its residential land development loan portfolio. This resulted in a full year 2007 provision of $11.3 million versus $6.0 million in 2006. Fourth quarter 2007 earnings per share were $0.19 per share on $5.3 million of net income, compared to $0.36 per share and $10.2 million for the year ago quarter and as compared to $0.35 for the linked-quarter. The Company also confirmed its pre-announced fourth quarter net-charge-offs of approximately $3.9 million, a majority of which were against loans affected by the real estate downturn.
Sorry! Hold the bus! 'Member that thing we said last month? Scratch that, that was a big load of shit! Man, were we way off. We actually got our ass waxed. Here ya go, this here is the Real Deal:
Market Report -- In Play (CACB)
February 21, 2008 4:31 PM ET
Cascade Bancorp increases Q4 provision for credit losses Co announces that it revised its estimated Q4 earnings from its previously reported results on Jan 23. Co says its Q4 results are reduced to $0.01 per share. This updated earnings estimate is the result of an $8.1 mln (pre-tax) increase in its provision for credit losses to $15.6 mln from the $7.5 mln previously announced. Co says "As we navigate through this challenging downturn in the real estate market, we will continue to monitor our loan portfolio and take appropriate measures to reserve against the risks posed."
Some among us seemed DUBIOUS about this financial wink-wink...
Bend Economy Man said...
Just a thought:
If Bank of the Cascades had 4Q 2007 earnings of $0.01 per share, probably a safe bet that in 1Q 2008 it's running at a loss.
CACB really "lucked out" (wink-wink) that even after revising its accounting mistakes, it managed to eke out a meager profit, thus delaying the inevitable "Bank of the Cascades Unprofitable" headline for a few months.
How, by the way, has P. Moss kept her job the whole time?
My target CACB stock price for April 2008: $9.
Step 1) Drink Kool-Aid non-stop
2) Report earnings 50% below prior year
3) Wait for the hub-bub to die down, then drop the other ONE FOURTH of the earnings bomb.
Hey WAIT! "ONE FOURTH"? That sort implies this line of bullshit spewing forth from Patty "Never A Quarterly Loss On My Watch" Moss is NOT OVER.
Right. See, the losses at CACB dwarf their Kool-Aid fueled idiocy. The losses are FAR larger than what they are reporting. They have applied liberal amounts of ELIZABETH TAYLOR-FICATION to their reporting so that the horror is minimized.
Moss & Crew get the ::eye roll:: of the week for this little facade.
Anonymous posted this:
More people moving in, but at a slower pace
California continues to be No. 1 feeder market by far
By David Fisher / The Bulletin
Published: February 17. 2008 4:00AM PST
Back in 2006, Altrec.com CEO Mike Morford and his managers figured they had to get their company out of Seattle. The offices of the online seller of outdoor gear were 15 traffic-choked miles from its warehouse, and it was running out of space.
It was tough to compete for top-level techies in a region dominated by Amazon.com and Microsoft, Morford recalled Wednesday. People’s commutes were tough. Nobody, in other words, was having much fun.
So the company cast a net around seven or eight Western towns and regions, including Central Oregon, weighing 20 or more different variables, from transportation to space availability to state incentives, to find a new place.
It settled on Redmond. Since it moved in September 2006, the company has brought 17 families to Central Oregon from outside the area, Morford said. Its total staff has tripled, partly because it has been relatively easy to attract talented people to the area to keep its Web design, marketing and search engine functions going, and partly because it has found a reasonable supply of them here.
“It actually has worked out better than we thought it would,” Morford said. “We knew it was going to be fun, in the sense of moving to Central Oregon, but I’ve been amazed at the number of people from places like San Francisco and Seattle who know about Bend. They have a place in Sunriver, or they’ve vacationed here or something, and they are trying to figure out how to live here.”
The total number of new families moving into and out of the area has slowed with the national housing slump, if data on interstate shipments from three of the country’s largest movers is any indication, but the basic trend remains strong.
People who can afford to move, and who can afford to hire movers, continue to prefer moving into Central Oregon to moving out of it by about a 2-to-1 margin.
Overall in 2007, United Van Lines LLC, Mayflower Transit LLC and Atlas Van Lines Inc. reported 369 shipments into Central Oregon’s three counties, and 179 shipments to other states. California accounted for the bulk of the inbound shipments with 37.9 percent, followed by shipments from Washington state at 9.8 percent.
Overall, four times more Californians moved in than moved out, with 140 coming in to 33 moving out. Washington’s 36 inbound shipments exactly doubled the number moving out of the region to that state, but some numbers were more balanced.
Sixteen shipments headed for Arizona, while only 19 came in from there, according to statistics from the three movers.
Colorado sent 18 shipments into Central Oregon, but got 15 back. Massachusetts was the only net draw from the Central Oregon region, attracting eight shipments out, but sending only two back.
Slowdown in moves The inbound migration pattern may have remained strong through 2007, nearly exactly reflecting the 2-to-1 inbound ratio of 2006. But the total amount of movement dropped substantially. The 369 inbound trips of 2007 were down nearly 15 percent from 2006. Outbound moves dipped, too, dropping 10.5 percent from 2006 to 179.
The data, collected from the three movers last week by The Bulletin, gives an incomplete picture of the region’s total migration pattern because it includes only interstate moves. Moves within Oregon are regulated by a different arm of government that doesn’t require the same type of data collection.
Still, the drop in overall numbers reflects a national slowdown in shipments, Atlas Van Lines spokeswoman Barbara Cox said, which is grounded in a single factor: A sluggish housing market is making it tougher for people to sell their homes where they are, which makes it tougher for them to relocate.
The slowdown is as apparent in Central Oregon, a region whose housing economy has traditionally been dependent on newcomers for its strength, as it is in the rest of the country. Sales of single-family homes on lots dropped 26.7 percent to 1,520 last year in Bend, according to the Central Oregon Association of Realtors, while the number of homes listed for sale topped 1,200 at the end of the year.
Redmond’s sales fell even further, dropping nearly 43 percent to 516, with more than 500 homes still listed for sale at the end of the year. As they have in much of the country, slowing sales are translating into lower prices.
In west Bend’s NorthWest Crossing, a 400-acre subdivision developed by Brooks Resources Corp. and Tennant Development, sales of housing units slid into the 45 to 50 range in 2006 and 2007, from the 105 sold in 2005, according to David Quiros, principal broker at NorthWest Crossing Realty. About 75 percent of the NorthWest Crossing inventory that sold last year went to buyers from outside the area, at prices that were significantly off.
Lots in the subdivision today are listed as low as $138,000, he said, down from the spring 2006 peaks of nearly $200,000.
The fiercest downturn in moving activity seemed to settle in last fall, a couple of months after a credit crunch bit the nation’s mortgage lending markets, said Harold Perry, owner of local Atlas agent City Moving and Storage Co., and it hasn’t picked up yet. “We had some things going last year, but jeez, there’s nothing going on this year,” Perry said, calling this year the worst winter he’s seen in the local moving business since the early 1980s. “You could almost go to sleep and not miss anything, so it’s bad. Whether it comes back or not is anybody’s guess.”
Given the number of unsold houses in Central Oregon and its biggest feeder markets, the leaders of Brooks Resources, the region’s biggest development company, figure that land and home prices may have to work their way back roughly to 2003 levels before the market regains some semblance of supply-and-demand balance, Brooks Resources President Kirk Schueler said.
That would bring median home prices in Bend back to the mid-$200,000 range. The median sales price through 2007 for Bend homes on lots stood at about $349,000, according to the Central Oregon Multiple Listing Service.
“Our prediction — I guess maybe it’s a hope — is that it squares around when we get back around the 2003 area,” Schueler said, “and it varies. Different pockets of town will do better than others.” Who wants to be here Meanwhile, Nancy Lynch, who’s owned local United Van Lines agent Bend Storage & Transfer Inc. since 1981, said she expects the same kinds of migration patterns to continue, even if they happen in reduced numbers.
Some will move here from warmer climates, then move back again after a few winters of snow and cold. Some will move here with half-formed dreams of economic success, then fail and move away.
On balance, though, the area for more than a decade has been a magnet for retiring baby boomers and others who are anxious to get away from the rat races, Lynch said, and the ones who have either brought jobs or money with them — or both — have had the best luck sticking. If they can get here.
California reported its lowest number of outbound moves in more than a decade, according to Atlas’ year-end report, possibly because people found it difficult to extricate themselves from houses in that state’s hard-hit markets. But despite the national slowdown in movement, Atlas’ national statistics still indicated a strong inclination for people in the country to move West, according to the company’s year-end report, with net movement particularly strong into the Northwest.
Falling prices in the local housing stock might actually help the region pull out of its funk faster than the rest of the nation, since its underlying desirability apparently remains undiminished, said Roger Lee, executive director of Economic Development for Central Oregon. “People still want to own homes and, in our case, boomers still want to be in the Pacific Northwest,” Lee said, “so things are playing well for us. If we were in the same position in Detroit, I don’t know what my forecast would be.” First of all, this piece goes on and on about the TREMENDOUS inbound inbalance between Oregon & just about everywhere else. Population figures from the Census bureau:
California: 36.5MM
Washington: 6.4MM
Arizona: 6.2MM
Oregon: 3.7MM
Huh, here's a nugg printed by BendBB, "New data reveal depth of housing slump":
The states suffering the biggest drop in sales in the third quarter were Nevada, down 44 percent and Wyoming, down 42 percent. Other states with big declines were New Mexico, down 39 percent, Oregon, down 38 percent and Arizona, down 37.6 percent.
Oregon is a TINY population state, just like Wyoming. DUH. That's why we don't have a lot of foreclosures.
Granted, there's more to it than population... Michigan is suffering from a depression, and THAT is going to keep them in the doldrums for years.
But even if WE are having the Best of Times, and Cali is suffering The Worst of Times, they WILL HAVE MORE FORECLOSURES than we ever will. Basic math.
Don't succumb to basic mathematical crap that is being printed around here. Is it true? Yes. Is it also misleading? Of course. Somehow you never find the footnote telling you that:
1) We are a very low population state & will ALWAYS have a small number foreclosures.
2) We are 18 months behind the curve of the RE Mega Bubble Implosion.
The header over on BendBB puts it well:
BEM said it best with respect to these recent Disaster Scenario Bulletin stories:
Bend Economy Man said...
I think that The Bulletin showed some backbone by publishing some rough facts and deadly quotes right after the COBA campaign began. Kudos to The Bulletin.
Yes, they followed the old Bulletin formula of Misleading Headline That Says Exactly the Opposite of the Facts in the Story / "Happy News" First and Last Paragraphs / Hard-Hitting News in the Middle. But by now I think we've deduced that this is in the Bulletin's editorial standards manual.
80 losing jobs at Bright Wood
Layoffs amount to 16 percent of work force; company attributes cuts to housing market
By Lauren Dake / The Bulletin
Published: February 21. 2008 4:00AM PST
MADRAS — For the second time in just more than a year, Madras-based Bright Wood Corp. has laid off more than 10 percent of its work force.
Around 180 out of 1,130 employees, working mainly in manufacturing and administrative positions, will be let go, said Bright Wood President Dallas Stovall. The layoffs started Monday and should be completed by the end of the week. The cuts amount to about 16 percent of the staff.
This should come as no surprise. And like CACB earnings "surprises", this one ain't over either. The hits will keep coming.
Area tourism feeling a pinch
By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin
Published: February 21. 2008 4:00AM PST
Skiers and snowboarders flocked to Central Oregon over Presidents Day weekend, but the business boost was short-term relief in a so-so winter for many businesses that rely on visitors, industry representatives said Wednesday, expressing nervousness about the future.
Benefiting from clear roads, ample snow and sunny days, Hoodoo Mountain Resort broke attendance records over the holiday weekend, and Mt. Bachelor ski area saw more visitors and spending. But local lodging properties and restaurants are feeling the pinch of a cooling national economy.
A slow December and January at many area lodging properties could bode ill for the region’s $498 million-a-year tourism economy, according to Alana Audette, president and CEO of Central Oregon Visitors Association, which promotes the region’s tourism industry.
“Overall, we’re still getting that sense that people are just belt-tightening a bit,” she said. “People are getting more wary about making those vacation plans. Advance reservations for spring are off, and the summer also is showing signs of slowing. It’s making us real nervous.”
Business has dropped between 15 percent and 20 percent the past 2½ months at Merenda Restaurant and Wine Bar in downtown Bend, said Jody Denton, chef and owner. He said the slowdown has affected many restaurants and retail businesses around town. Denton also is chef and owner of Deep, which opened downtown in June.
“I don’t think anybody’s immune,” Denton said. “I thought Bend would dodge the bullet until December and January, but it’s definitely trickled down.”
Bend’s cold housing industry has played a large role in slower business at Merenda and Deep, Denton said.
Our commercial real estate sector has finally jumped whole hog into the bursting RE horror. Ridiculous concepts like "office condos" which is a simple-minded attempt to sell RE to the only group capable of buying anymore, BUSINESS, has failed MISERABLY. Lease rates are simply unsustainable.
Local banks, that only months ago declared themselves fit as a fiddle financially & almost completely IMMUNE from the collapse... LIED. They were firmly planted in some Kool-Aid fueled hallucination where they were exempt from reality. Even I bought into this fantasy. As GHWB so eloquently put it:
CACB plumbed new lows, and is within eyeshot of the single digits. Who would have thunk it? Even CACB Shorter covered in the $20's.
People aren't moving here anymore. Has Bend lost its luster? Well, certainly some. I got here in 2001, and am not enamored of the "attitude" that has transformed the place in just that short time. Honking, rude, self-absorbed psychotic consumerist nightmares. Hopefully the Bust will put out that fire.
More specifically, NO ONE CAN SELL THEIR HOUSE, and we are finding that THAT is the grist of the Bend economic mill. We RELY on the ability to GRIFT PEOPLE OF THEIR MONEY. Look at that quote from the "moving" piece:
they are trying to figure out how to live here.
This is just amazing. I know of Very Few places where you have to "figure out" how to live somewhere. YOU FUCKING WORK. OK, you work.
Not Central Oregon. We are grifters, we have to FIGURE OUT how to survive. And my God, has the grifter trade here been a bonanza for the last 5 years. Ask Holz-Tek: Two of the most gifted Flim-Flam men to ever grace our shores. These two drew up a Perpetual Motion Machine on a napkin, called it a "Master Plan", and sold to the City of Bend for $2,560,000! AWESOME!
Unfortunately, this gig is up. The money has gone away, and there's no one left to pay for the nightmare created during this romp. Brucey got the Big Fuck You, when he dared address this problem with Bends Big Muckety Mucks:
bruce said... On the CC meeting: LS building looks as good as we will get, Sonia is worried about money (some real "choices" will have to be made if we don't sell any JR land next year) and the dickhead John Russell simply brushed me off with a "no" when I asked him how we were planning on paying for the roads/sewers/etc. for the 50 acres we were planning on selling if all the money from that acreage was going to pay for the current shit that we are building.
I STRONGLY ENCOURAGE you to head over to Bruce's Blog, and read his headline piece, "JR Financing Just Doesn't Make Sense". Excellent review on the Circular Financial Clusterfuck that is Juniper Ridge.
Nice Bruce.
Finally I want to retract my statements of last week, that could be interpreted that this may NOT be the Best Buyers Market in 20 Years in Bend.
I thought about it, and maybe they are right. This MAY WELL be The Best Buyers Market Of ALL TIME. Check this listing over on BendBB:
2008-02-22 2613809 Bend Mtn River Estates 1475000 725000 -750000 -50.85 219 11
This little Sugar Shack has been listed since the Earth was a ball of hot magma, and worse it's been marked down ELEVEN TIMES, for a total of OVER FIFTY PERCENT.
Think about it: This little shithole has been for sale FOREVER, and has taken 11 Reality Revisions for a 50+% hit in price. This bodes well for a strategy that has been non-existent for 5 years in Central Oregon:
This species, long ago thought extinct, actually has a basis in reality nowadays. People who previously would have not even thought about responding... well, most probably still will not respond, but SOME WILL.
The sale of RE around here is being removed from peoples DISCRETIONARY table and being put on the COMPULSORY table. They HAVE TO SELL.
Can you imagine throwing this homeowner a 50% OFF lowball on Day 1? My God, they'd call the cops on you. "We've got a crazy person in the building!".
Have a scroll through BendBB's price change boards. Those badboys are well-populated with HUGE reductions from initial DREAMY list prices. There are people who HAVE TO SELL.
Now their prices are still insane in most instances. That should tell you something, when they are still 100% too high after a 35% price reduction. BUT, you can walk to the table in todays atmosphere of Dread, and calmly throw down a LOWBALL that renders every man in the room sterile, and every pregnant woman goes into premature delivery.
And you won't be removed forcibly. They might actually talk about it. Most won't. 90+% won't. But the ones that DO, can be worth your while. Some of these people/banks that hold onto 3 or 4 $320K EMPTY rental shitholes, MAY look kindly on a $190K kick square in their hairy-ass beanbag, if it means avoiding foreclosure on the lot of them.
This could be The Best Buyers Market EVER. But you gotta have the means & the fuckin nads to walk in unabashed, and give EVERYONE in the room FINANCIAL EBOLA & THE FUCKIN AIDS with a lowball that DOES NOT saddle YOU with their Horrific Financial Problems.
If you play their game, you will get killed. You'll hold an unsalable piece of shit in a MASSIVELY DECLINING market. You'll never break even, and you'll lose money every month, and you'll take a 33% haircut AT BEST when it comes time to sell, and that's a Big IF... IF you can sell.
But, if you firmly plant a scrote busting, steal-toed LOWBALL right in their crotch, you can actually make out OK, and that is IF AND ONLY IF you do NOT plan on selling in the next decade, and you can make that cracker shack pencil as a rental. And there are Realtors who are STARVING TO DEATH for you to play this game.
So do me proud folks: Go out looking for a cracker shack, and walk proudly to the table and throw down a LOWBALL that ruptures every eyeball vein in the place.
275 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 275 of 275 Newer› Newest»A couple of interesting parts of the Complaint filed against Pape/INNSpired:
SEVENTH CLAIM FOR RELIEF
Conversion
(Against All Defendants)
Plaintiffs reallege and incorporate by reference paragraphs 1 through 29 and 31 through 8 40,42 through 52, 54 through 63, 65 through 69,71 through 78, and 80 through 84 above, as through fully set forth herein.
By virtue of the acceleration of the Special Assessment to 2007 by the Papes and the Director Defendants, in order to take advantage of the credit set forth in the Sublease and Management Agreement, the Papes individually and on behalf of lNNspired, and the Director Defendants have caused plaintiffs and the other non-controlling Unit Owners to unfairly and inappropriately pay that portion of the Residential Unit Future Improvements allocated to and performed on residential units owned by INNspired and the Papes. As such, defendants lNNspired and Pape have converted approximately $6,200,000 (based upon an estimate of the undocumented credit to be claimed by lNNspired) from plaintiffs and the other non-controlling Unit Owners for their own personal use and gain.
The Papes and the Director Defendants, by and through the AUO, have and will use the lien and foreclosure rights under ORS 100.450-475 and the AUO Bylaws to enforce lNNspired and the Papes' conversion of plaintiffs and the other non-controlling Unit Owners funds.
Because of the AUO's ability to foreclose on and sell individual units at The lNN of the Seventh Mountain, Unit Owners must pay lNNspired and the Papes' share of the Special Assessment under compulsion.
As a direct result of defendants activity causing plaintiffs and the other non-controlling Unit Owners to unfairly pay obligations owed by lNNspired and the Papes, plaintiffs and the other non-controlling Unit Owners have been damaged in the amount of $6,200,000, which is an estimate of the amount of credit under the Sublease and Management Agreement to be asserted by lNNspired.
In addition, defendants have improperly used AUO funds for their own benefit, including the payment of professional service fees that exclusively benefit the Papes and lNNspired, and which do not benefit the AUO generally. These AUO funds come from monthly assessments of the Unit Owners and are intended to be used to benefit the AUO generally. By using AUO funds for their personal benefit, defendants are converting the property of plaintiffs and the other non-
controlling Unit Owners.
NINTH CLAIM FOR RELIEF
Accounting Under ORS 65.774
(Against Defendants AUO, The Papes and the Director Defendants)
Plaintiffs reallege and incorporate by reference paragraphs I through 29 and 31 through 40,42 through 52, 54 through 63,65 through 69,71 through 78, 80 through 84, 86 through 88, and 90 through 95 above, as through fully set forth herein.
At various times, individual non-controlling Unit Owners have requested the opportunity to review certain corporate records of the AUO required to be maintained under ORS 65.771, including but not limited to agreements between the AVO and certain entities such as Arrowood and Cascade Bookkeeping, accounting records, voter lists, financial statements, accountant reports, corporate governance documents, ballots from the November 25, 2007 and December 31, 2007 special meetings (along with proxies and proxy revocations) and other such documents. Pursuant to ORS 65.774, each request was made in good faith and for a legitimate purpose; namely to provide oversight to AVO operations, accounts and financials by non-controlling members.
The AUO response to these reasonable, legitimate and good faith requests has been to deny access to records, stall in providing access to records, provide partial access to records or otherwise prevent a full and complete review of AUO operations records or an accounting of AUO financial records.
Without access to these records, the non-controlling Unit Owners cannot adequately assess the validity of certain AUO actions, the present financial condition of the AUO, or provide legitimate oversight to AUO accounts and financials.
The AUO should be obligated to provide full and transparent accounting of the AUO's books and records. If the AUO fails to provide full, unfettered and transparent access to the AUO's books and records, the Court should order inspection of the AUO's books and records, solely at the expense of the controlling owners and Board Members, pursuant to ORS 65. 781.
JURY TRIAL
Plaintiffs hereby demand a jury trial in all appropriate claims set forth above.
PRAYER FOR RELIEF
WHEREFORE, plaintiffs pray for damages against defendants as follows:
...
On Plaintiffs' Seventh Claim for Relief for Conversion:
(1) For a judgment against defendants in an amount equal to the credit asserted by defendant INNspired under the Sublease and Management Agreement as a result of defendants' unlawful and illegal conversion of plaintiffs' and the other affected Unit Owners' funds for the personal use of defendants INNspired and Pape, in an amount estimated to be approximately $6,200,000;
(2) Prejudgment interest at the maximum rate allowed by law;
(3)For plaintiffs' attorneys' fees, costs and disbursements incurred herein; and
(4) For such other and further relief as the Court may deem just and proper.
On Plaintiffs' Eighth Claim for Relief for Accounting:
(1) For a judicial determination that defendants AUO and INNspired make available for an accounting to plaintiffs all books and records associated with capital expenditures undertaken by INNspired pursuant to the Sublease and Management Agreement to which defendant INNspired will claim a credit pursuant to that same Sublease and Management Agreement;
(2)For plaintiffs' attorneys' fees, costs and disbursements incurred herein; and
(3) For such other and further relief as the Court may deem just and proper.
On Plaintiffs' Ninth Claim for Re1ief for Accounting:
(1) For a judgment under ORS 65.781 that the AVO make available for an
accounting to plaintiffs all books and records associated the operations of the AVO and required to be maintained under ORS 65.771;
(2) For plaintiffs' attorneys' fees, costs and disbursements incurred herein pursuant to ORS 65.781; and
(3) For such other and further relief as the Court may deem just and proper.
###
So they aren't only accusing them of withholding documents and backdoor dealing on the assessment to try to get INNspired as big of a return as possible, they are flat out accusing them of stealing (or "converting") $6.2 million by using liens and the power of the law to foreclose on homeowners.
This is going to get ugly. What a great soap opera.
PaulDoh--See, no one can figure out that when the comments hit 200, you have to click on that tiny "Newer" button below the comments....
Pape/INNspired/Friedman are going to have a second lawsuit filed against them soon:
Subject: Inn Buyers Round Up Truth & Justice; were buyers defrauded?
The purpose of this email is to inform you that we, several fractional-buyers and/or whole ownership buyers (anyone who purchased a condo from INNspired Corp.), at Inn of the 7th Mountain, are forming a litigation group. Our group’s focus is based upon the misrepresentations and/or fraud that may have occurred during our purchase process with respect to renovations and/or the special assessment issues, and to pursue a legal solution for it.Attached are details regarding this phase for our group. If you are interested in joining to pursue a legal solution/remedy to the issues with the purchasing real estate transaction at Inn of the Seventh Mountain, then join our litigation group.Misrepresentation and/or fraud in real estate transactions is a violation of the law; we seek to discover the truth of the matter at hand, and a solution that is right for each of us, together.
Jointly we can extract ourselves from a situation that we did not buy into. Please read the attached letter and join our effort, which includes notifying law enforcement officials and pursuing civil legal solutions to our personal and financial distress.
Please know that you are not in this alone, it wasn’t anything that we each did or didn’t do. The issue is we never received all of the documents (the sub lease agreement) as part of our escrow process, nor knew the truth of the matter.
Time is of the essence. Read this information, pledge your support, create a solution.
p.s. Dear New Board — this is our first email transmission; a large transmission will go out on 2/5/08. Any feedback is appreciated.
In Buyers Round Up Truth & Justice
&
Inn Real Estate Buyers Legal Solutions Group
###
And they are going to coordinate with the current lawyers.
Much more here: http://innowners.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/02/historical-background-ltr-feb5_2008.pdf
Boy, this just gets richer and richer.
Not only are the Inces, et al, filing suit, according to their PDF they have sent a lengthy letter of complaint to Mike Dugan, Deschutes County DA; Hardy Myers, Oregon AG; Karen Immergut, Oregon District US Attorney based in Portland; and John Ray, Oregon District US Attorney based in Eugene.
That should get a little attention.
The basic cause for their claim is that they were told by the realtor that INNspired was going to refurbish everything, and were not told about the existence of the 11/1/03 Sublease and Management Agreement between the AUO and INNspired that discussed potential assessments to pay for these improvements. Rather they were told the improvements were to be paid for by INNspired and have the notes to prove it.
INNspired, the gift that keeps on giving. I wonder how much of Friedman's "dealings" are going to be have to made public in court before the local media stops treating him with kid gloves.
Methinks INNspired and associates are pissing off people that they don't really want to:
Sincerely yours,
Larry & Sharon Ince
p.s. We organize this group because we are concerned real estate buyers. Larry is a retired trial attorney. Sharon a retired paralegal, and writer. We have spoken to several couples who are similarly situated. Several are attorneys. One husband is a practicing attorney in Oregon, and his wife manages their real estate. Another is a retired federal prosecutor. Another is a tax and corporate attorney. We all were sold/told the same thing; we read our documents to be prudent buyers. We feel the sellers did not act properly and now we seek a legal remedy together.
Please know that you are not in this alone, it wasn’t anything that we each did or didn’t do. The issue is we never received all of the documents (the sub lease agreement) as part of our escrow process, nor knew the truth of the matter.
When the posts get near 200, Paul, you should just start a new content-free "discussion continues"
entry.
I know Buster's got one...but he's probably a Stihl man.
*
I run a little Stihl 029, and I have about four bar's for it, and I have built several log homes with it ( Pine & Fir ), and its still running fine.
I have lots oak cord-wood sit aside for the next few years, already to be bucked and split.
"Last count in Jan 08 there are 34,790 BUILT and permitted homes in the Bend City limits."
*
Marge that 'word' permitted shouldn't be there, only a home that is 'completed' can be legally occupied and considered a 'home', there's a ton of open-permits in the area that will never be completed. We need to know the actual number of 'certificates of completion on file'.
Non-Permitted homes would be the home-less camps, so lets no go there.
We need to have a number of the Homes in Bend that have been signed off by the city-inspector as 'certified for occupancy', what is that number??
Bruce -
Great photos over at BBboard. You are the man.
Construction and real estate in Bend, Oregon - Just the facts.
According to the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis, in 2005 construction and real estate accounted for 17.3% of all jobs in the Bend metropolitan statistical area (MSA), which constitutes all of Deschutes County.[10] This figure is about 70% more than the proportion of construction and real estate jobs in the Oregon and national economies.[11] However, construction activity in Bend appears to be slowing - the number of building permit applications received by the Bend City Building Division fell from 826 in August 2006 to 533 in August 2007, a 35% decrease.[12]
A large influx of new residents drawn by Bend's lifestyle amenities, along with the low interest rates and easy lending that fostered a national housing boom in 2001-2005, resulted in increased activity in Bend's construction and real estate sectors and have caused the rate of home price appreciation in Bend to grow substantially during that period.[13] Median home prices in the Bend MSA increased by over 80% in the 2001-2005 period.[14]
In June 2006, Money magazine named the Bend MSA the fifth most overpriced real estate market in the United States.[15] By September 2006, the Bend metro area ranked second in the list of most overpriced housing markets, and in June 2007 it was named the most overpriced housing market in America.[16][17]
According to Real Estate site Zillow.com true values of homes in Bend decreased by 14.4% in 2007.
Homer, this should really be your next stream, its just too Bend.
***
http://ekday.com/blog/files/b1b008b9fb9a4de9a9f008c394a7abb2-96.html
Using Sex to Sell Real Estate (and Other Drama)
By Erik Hersman on Wednesday, November 28, 2007 Filed Under: Industry, Marketing
Tags: broker, Real-Estate, sex, video
Here’s a interesting story. A real estate agent in Orlando creates a video full of scantily clad female models, and asks “can sex sell real estate?”.
So, the first question is; “does sex actually help you sell in real estate?”
Now we get to the fun part - full of the same type of drama that makes us cringe, but still watch, The Office. Here’s a short summary:
This agent is a private contractor, responsible for all of his own marketing. His team leader is eventually shown the video, is shocked and disappointed and escalates it to the broker. One other-than-friendly voice mail later, and the agent in question is being asked to remove the video from YouTube or resign.
The second question is; “how much control of an agents marketing does a broker have?”
So, questions of taste and quality aside, how would you answer those two questions?
[If you’d like to see the video for yourself, here is a link. I hesitate to put it on FoREM without getting Joel’s input…]
ED. UPDATE - I’ve embedded the video below because I think it helps frame the discussion. Warning - it is probably NSFW and if you’re easily offended, don’t push Play. I’ve also updated the FOREM poll to reflect this debate - please take a moment and vote. ~Joel
http://ekday.com/blog/files/b1b008b9fb9a4de9a9f008c394a7abb2-96.html
Re: does sex sell real estate?
Only if it comes with legal concubines...
Sex is easy, real estate is expensive.
But what do I know, I am not a Realtor.
Re: good pics
Thanks :)
Have a few more from million-dollar row on Gorge View that I'll get up soon.
I'm really not sure how we are going to deal with the overbuilding. Especially if hardly anyone is moving here. It's kind of scary.
That asswipe realtor on bendbb says everything will be fine. People want to live here.
Me..I am a Husky girl. Keep her chain sharp and ready to work. Had a great time in the 5 acre yard doin some trimmin and non-green burnin. Hey, I am old Bend. We burn! Damn hybrids. :)
My neighbor just put up a huge area of solar panels on his roof quite enough to feed back into the grid most of the time. The wife calls me and asks me about buying a Toyota Highlander Hybrid. Like I know about hybrids. They are trying to be green. I told her the hybrid would not make up for the woodstove emissions that they heat alot with. I think I am correct though not entirely sure.
So ?
Anonymous said...
"Last count in Jan 08 there are 34,790 BUILT and permitted homes in the Bend City limits."
*
Marge that 'word' permitted shouldn't be there, only a home that is 'completed' can be legally occupied and considered a 'home', there's a ton of open-permits in the area that will never be completed. We need to know the actual number of 'certificates of completion on file'.
"Non-Permitted homes would be the home-less camps, so lets no go there.
We need to have a number of the Homes in Bend that have been signed off by the city-inspector as 'certified for occupancy', what is that number??"
Hey it was not my independent study.
All I know is that there is a habitable structure. Not some sticks that are not surrounded by the rest of the home. Did you know that most of the homes built before 74 were not subject to codes or permits? Bruce! This one is for you! I believe all you had to do was a plot plan with a few set backs and no inspections. As most of the "old westside is". Ah the good ole days.
Wish I could help more on the housing stats I choose not to spend 1000 hours figuring it out. I want to retire to a campsite soon.
That asswipe realtor on bendbb says everything will be fine. People want to live here.
So where is this asswipe comment?
After a couple years we were bought by a company in Toronto.
You were them dudes up in Madras, right? I think the sole survivor is in Prineville now...
"Water, too. You have to water your lawn every other damned day from spring through fall."
Why is that? I water my lawn once or twice a week and it stays green enough for the kids to play on. Now, I am not one to give a sh@$ about having a lawn that will impress, just one that stays alive. I pay $14 a month to avion for all the water I can use and I still think it's lame to waste the water on my lawn. Not to single you out Tim, it's just one of my peevs. On another note, looks like your waiting game is really going to pay off. This fall will bring a whole new low to housing prices in Bend.
I too came to Bend with nothing. I rode my bike here from Govy on a cold November day with a backpack full of clothes and $90 in my pocket. Things are much different now but I am still the same cruster I always was, I just tuck in my shirt for work.
From the Jake's Diner blog (the one where the guy is buying a house right now) comes another little anecdote about how hard things are getting:
Friday, February 8, 2008
The Widows
On Saturday a couple of the ladies living in the park behind us held an indoor yard sale. I found that kinda strange for in the middle of the winter and my curiosity got the best of me so right after the rush, I went back to see what was up. I had also gotten quite a kick out of their sign that they had placed out on the road. It read "Indoor yard sale inside".
Two sweet ladies were running the sale and I saw the usual tables full of stuff that I probably would never use but over in the corner was a piece of exercise equipment that Judy and I had looked at at the store just the day before.
In striking up a conversation with the two ladies, I asked the obvious. Why this in the middle of the winter. After all, they would have to drag stuff out of storage and with all of the snow around, packing it down to the hall hand to be a chore.
"We are trying to raise money to pay for our electric bills in the winter.", came the reply. Now they had my attention. You see, I never realized that any of the people in the park could be struggling like this. Especially since the space rent on their places was the best in town and will not go up as long as they stay there.
The plight of one particular lady hit me the most. She is nearly 90 and living on $600 social security per month. Her heating bill in her old trailer the month before was $200. This proud lady who had lost her husband decades ago and who had kept her head up all these years was now struggling to survive. She was actually one of the ladies running the sale and the other lady told me her story as a couple kept her busy on the other side of the room.
I wasn't sure what to do but knew right then and there that something had to be done. While I looked at Judy's potential purchase thinking more of their plight then the condition of the equipment, the older lady walked over to the kitchen to get the chicken sandwich that she had made for the two ladies to share for lunch. She let out a giggle and brought over a bag with two slices of bread to her friend. "I cant believe that I forgot the chicken!", she laughed, "But at least we have some bread to share!"
I told them both that I needed to get Judy and I would be right back. I walked back over to the diner and got a couple of portions of turkey breast and told Judy of the equipment that she needed to look at. On the way over to the hall, I filled her in on the story. I handed the turkey breast to the ladies and they gleefully went to the kitchen to prepare their lunch while Judy and I looked at the equipment that I was already prepared to buy no matter what the condition. It was nearly new, Judy loved it and we made the purchase. We then moved on to an indoor bike that was across the room.
After purchasing the bikes, I began to flash out ideas to the ladies. I got the telephone number of one of the ladies and promised my help but also letting them know that I was really not sure what kind of help that I would or could be. I assured them that I would try to do something.
I first talked with my friend, Mike Schmidt from the chamber who usually is in on Sunday mornings for breakfast. Mike said that he was meeting with someone from Pacific Power the next week and that he would mention it to them to see what kind of programs that are available. I knew that Mike would be diligent and get back to me.
I then met with my other friend, Richard Smith, who used to be the construction supervisor for Habitat for Humanity. Richard and I along with my buddy, Frank had been the foundation of our poker tourney on Monday's that we coined "Holdem for Habitat". Richard has friends in the construction industry and I asked him to talk with some of them and see what kind of ideas we could come up with.
Lastly, I stood up at the beguinning of Monday's tourney and proposed to everyones agreement to turn over the first Monday's winnings of every winter month to go towards this problem. After all, the money would be going to the same benefit as we are talking about these ladies habitats. We raised over $100 that evening and after playing one of the players walked up and handed me a check for $400 to assist in the program. Wanting to remain annonymous, he told me that he had been blessed and wanted to share and help where he could.
Those are the routes that we are taking at this time. I am writing this for two reasons. First, I am asking for your prayers and thoughts towards it. I am a man of faith who believes strongly in the power of prayer and also knows the value of positive thinking. We can solve this problem corporately.
Secondly, any ideas on what we can do is greatly appriciated. You can leave them here or contact me at 419-6021. No ideas are bad ideas. Many unworkable ideas have lead to productive ones and I know we can make a difference here.
Here is where we are to this minute. Pacific Power has sent me information that I need to look over. I am prepared to assist them in their forms if needs be and hope that the proud ones will come along. I called up the lady that I had met at the sale and she has agreed to be the liaison for the widows in the park that need the help. I asked her how many there were and she said that she really wasn't sure but knew of at least six living in her area of the park. I will try to keep you posted on further developments.
That asswipe realtor on bendbb says everything will be fine. People want to live here.
So where is this asswipe comment?
*
Where is the 'realtor despondency index post"??
Almost ALL posts on BENDBB get deleted and always has, this is what BENDBB does deletes posts. Sort of an internet reverse addiction, some play games, some post, and BENDBB deletes. What ever gets your rocks off.
Now MARGE, publish the fucking link to where the housing data that your getting that says there is 35K homes in BEND that have cert-of-occupation. That means there is one SFD for every two people, this is bullshit, as there are tons of condos and apartments, and high density hotel/motels here.
Where the fuck are you getting your numbers, from now on, always doc your source with a link, so we don't have to waste time given that you don't answer questions.
From the Jake's Diner blog (the one where the guy is buying a house right now) comes another little anecdote about how hard things are getting:
Nice Bruce...
I was just checking BendBlogs.com, and happened across this headline:
The Bulletin and the $498 million
» Bend, Oregon Housing Bubble
It's BEM! He's Back! Is he back?
BEM... are you back? Please... be back.
>>Not to single you out Tim, it's just one of my peevs.
This is per my agreement with the landlord.
Don't know why. It's a nearly universal habit in every neighborhood near Broken Top, apparently.
And what's funny is that BEM's first post in a year, was almost exactly what I was thinking about.
Funny how you can "get someone's number".
Bend tourism's is "498". Search local blogs for "498", and you will inevitable run across the idiocy of COVA's Dead On The Dollar Income From Tourism. Not an "estimate"... DEAD ON THE DOLLAR.
$498 MILLION +/- $0.
Right.
Even Dunc has his "rant number". It's "28". It'll probably soon be 29 or 30, but it's now 28.
What's that "28" come from Duncan?
:-)
Bilbo's Rant Number is "70".... or "-70"
28! 28! 28!
Rant number. Too funny. ;>
Feb 29,2008
Deschutes County to auction 18 residential lots March 20
by Bend Weekly News Sources
small font medium font large font
On Thursday March 20, 2008, Deschutes County will auction 18 parcels of vacant land. The properties are residential lots in Bend, Redmond and southern Deschutes County.
Auction bidding starts at 10 a.m. in the Barnes Hearing Room of the Deschutes Services Center at 1300 NW Wall Street in Bend, Oregon.
Bidders may register in advance any business day between March 10 and March 19 at the Deschutes Services Center, Suite 200, second floor. Interested persons may purchase auction brochures for $10 at the same location.
All bidders must pay full price for County land they have purchased in cash or cashier's check; or they may finance payment (see list online at www.deschutes.org for properties that are eligible for financing):
* 20 percent non-refundable cash down payment
* Balance in equal monthly installments over 10 years
* Fixed loan rate set at the current bank prime loan interest rate as of March 20, 2008 plus 1 percent
For details on the sale and to register to bid, please visit www.deschutes.org and follow the Quick Link to "Land Sales or Auctions." Citizens may also call 541-330-4656 to hear a recorded message about the Deschutes County land auction.
Homer,
Pray TELL, your rant number has ALWAYS been 70,
My rant number is 1/e, which is about 64, natural number of decay, its quite useful for studying large populations of dead and dying toxic bacteria, .e.g. Bend Flippers, ...
In a game like we play 64 & 70 are close enough, CACB is almost all toxic BEND RE, and thus a perfect example of what our out of State investors think of their BEND-OREGON 'investment'.
All normal system's decay, and Bend is a perfect example.
ATTENTION: Once comments hit 200, Blogger starts paginating results. There are small links at the top & bottom pointing to "newer" and "older" comments. Click "newest" to see the most recent comments.
*
Thanks, this needed to be said, like I told bruce over at BENDBB, its NOT expecting too much from people they understand how to read, and the meaning of old,older, and newer.
Now to the facts, as the SHIT hits the fan and people go broke, fewer and fewer will be able to pay $50/mo for bend-broadband, or DSL, so MORE will fall back to old dial-up POTS modems, and for such people using 'blogger' is pain in the ass to download 400 posts everytime, I suspect that google will eventually make it adjustable, I would like it to be an option, so I can search a whole thread, but I understand why they're doing it because the 'average' person can't afford high-speed internet.
Bilbo says,
-64 : will you still need me, will you still love me when Bend is -64,
...
ROUND[1-(1/e)] * 100
Perfect decay of a DEAD system, and Bend is PERFECT in every fucking way.
1998 Knife-River buys Hap-Taylor, 1998 Mike Hollern Sells "Smart Growth" as bait&switch, SDC's deferred forever, city-hall loaded with HOA kleptocrats, ... 2001+ easy-money, ... Bend is the perfect boom/bust distribution, I'm sure it will be symmetric.
Like DUMBYA postponing the crash with $600 checks Bends realtors attempt to postpone the crash with HYPE.
Watch CACB, and watch it closely for it is our bellwether, its is 100% toxic, and all the pension funds know it. When this storm has passed it will be a generation before any dumb money comes back to this ghost town.
Well BEM's site is NOT open, so it appear's he'll be censoring comments just like normal.
Yes, $498k, is an over-used number, but its the justification for the entire COVA budget which is used as the mother's milk source for the BULL and family.
If & WHEN the $498k is dead, then their will be NO reason to keep COVA alive, and then the BULL will die, ... so its important that the BULL keep the $498k number alive, they can't grow the number, cuz we all know tourism is dead, so they just keep repeating the old dead number so that people think they're getting an ROI off COVA.
Bend is fucked, cuz BEND is ONLY about nepotism.
Bruce,
One other element of info for you on the subject of Knife-River and Les Schwab aka Juniper Ridge.
Knife-River ( Hap Taylor ) has a fleet of 100's of heavy-equipment vehicles all BURNING LES SCHWAB rubber, my guess is that KR is the largest commercial account for LS.
Thus you can see why LS did the city-hall sales-agreement to make $13M or more ( add in the $60M someday ) for old Knife-River, ...
Juniper Ridge costs to much to excavate, but Les Schwab did its part making work for Knife-River, so it could buy more tires, ....
It's all happy in Bend, no problem with Knife-River moving equipment to Baker-City to build roads, thats still Les Schwab country.
Yes, $498k, is an over-used number,
*
Whoops, $498M
>>Thanks, this needed to be said, like I told bruce over at BENDBB, its NOT expecting too much from people they understand how to read, and the meaning of old,older, and newer.
It's a user interface design issue. Any time you change a user interface, you're violating habits that people have developed to increase their efficiency.
When I come to the site, I immediately click on the heading of Doh's current rant. Then I bang on the End key on my keyboard while all this nonsense is loading.
If the message at the bottom is one I have read before, I move on. I shouldn't have to read all the user interface elements every time I come to the blog to see if Google has changed something on me. Should I spend time reading that "Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)" message at the bottom? No, the UI should be reasonably stable.
Obviously they made the change for a reason. Perhaps because of the length of Doh's rants. ;-) But the confusion is completely understandable.
Since Google took the initiative and changed things on us, I think paul should embrace change and delete this old and busted paragraph that I'm sick of:
"Going to try a few google widgets, see how they work out. These are server-independent of me or google, so we'll see how reliable they are, and drop the dogs."
Bruce -
Great photos over at BBboard. You are the man.
***
Please tell me how to find your photos.
Thx
Re: photos
http://bendeconomy.informe.com/pics-of-extra-housing-overhang-dt3676.html
Honestly Homeboy should take out all the crap other than the post, and cut down on the video's and have essential graphics, but not every fucking gadget in the world. Google is a good design, but homeboy has turned this into a yahoo.homepage.
It's about the text. Home-Boy seems to go crazy with gadgets, and crap, hell I use 10mb broad-band, and it still take for fucking ever to load this shit cuz of all the java script and dumb fucking google et-al gadgets, ... jeebus cris it must be terrible for folks with a slow-connection. Occasionally I visit this site with a blackberry or iphone, and I just hit stop and go to he comment-block,
What ever happened to "KEEP IT SIMPLE STUPID??"
The older, oldest, newest, doesn't bother me, as I have always gone from the last back, sort of last posting, first read, and I go back until I have seen it all,
I run fast computers, and sheeeet there's a lot of dumb fucking shit multi-tasking on this fucking site,
I just loaded the page in Firebug. Paul, if you could pull out the weather plug-in, you'd get rid of 20 or 30 individual Central Oregon weather reports that are pulled in through Ajax calls.
Also, there's a JS error when it tries to pull weather from "greenhorn". Kinda funny. In the stack trace you see Google trying to not be evil.
units[0] has no properties
loadCityFromResponseXML(Document , Object name=greenhorn,or point=(-118.497, 44.709) z=8)ifr (line 661)
loadCityGenerator(Document , Object mini=true allowDebug=false showWeather=true, Object name=greenhorn,or point=(-118.497, 44.709) z=8)ifr (line 647)
_IG_Callback()wf2C59RCSGM.js (line 37)
ig_Za("throw 1; < don't be evil' >{ 'http://www.google.com/ig/api?weather\x3dgreenhorn%2Cor' : { 'body': '\...", "http://www.google.com/ig/api?weather=greenhorn%2Cor", function(), true)wf2C59RCSGM.js (line 86)
ig__("throw 1; < don't be evil' >{ 'http://www.google.com/ig/api?weather\x3dgreenhorn%2Cor' : { 'body': '\...")wf2C59RCSGM.js (line 88)
onreadystatechange()wf2C59RCSGM.js (line 3)
[Break on this error] if (units[0].getAttribute("data") == "SI")
Guess who's hawking condos again (with all caps no less - desperate much?).
http://bend.craigslist.org/rfs/591256037.html
Re: photos
Thx for interesting photos. I've recently noticed on Craigs that there are many more of the 1/2-mill-plus size homes for sale than in the past few months.
Must be the rich have decided it ain't gonna turn around anytime soon.
All caps my god. It's like an email from my old man.
Plaza is in hard-sell mode. Saw a Plaza ad on TV last night. It looked positively lived-in. Must have been kinda heartbreakingly lonely for the residents when the actors left after the shoot.
CONDIMINIUM
Hell, why not make ALL the vowels into i's while you're at it?
Wanna buy a CONDI?
Well, I got rid of the offending widgets, and added Bruce's blog to the list! Everybody Happy!
If I know "Everybody", and I do, Nobody Happy!
Man, I really got motivated & deleted Clive's inventory counter... only been dysfunctional for a year. I wanted to be safe....
I "did" spell it "disfunctional" the first time Timmy... and changed it.
That there's Real Man Love.
BEM... are you back? Please... be back.
Well I can't do much more now to raise awareness of the housing bubble since it's all anyone ever talks about now.
BUT - I think I can stop The Bulletin from using that damn unsourced "$498 million-a-year tourism industry" line.
I don't think we'll see them use it again.
I got word yesterday that Desert Sun Development has laid off all staff members. Pretty sure they own a bunch of industrial space and land.
That would be 15 to 20 people out of work if this is true.
Prices are coming down fast.
$279950 Brand New, Under $117/sq ft & HUGE Yard
http://bend.craigslist.org/rfs/591647377.html
Another miniMcMansion, same builder:
$239950 Brand New & Under $114/sq ft in Bend
http://bend.craigslist.org/rfs/591581207.html
bruce, is that first one in Redmond, or what? This is going to be the summer people get desperate. The relentless news cycle on housing has just started. Sellers won't be able to go a day without hearing how screwed they are on TV, radio, newspaper, Internet, water cooler conversation, and parties.
Paul, killing that weather widget really helped the loading speed. Thanks. The remaining widgets just do two GETS and a POST, and were done within 421ms on my computer through Bend Broadband.
Paul, not sure why you dumped Clive's Realtor.com tracking link. Did you have the wrong URL? I look at it weekly.
http://cliveholloway.net/bend/
I posted this at Bendbb.
Feb sold stats as of 3/1/08.
Bend Residential homes on less than an acre:
45 Sold @ median of $322,500
Bend all types of residential
58 Sold @ median of $327,500
Current active listings are 1876.
Hopefully a few more sales will be reported next week as brokers catch up with reporting to MLS.
There seems to be more homes going pending the past 60 days though.
In 2007 the numbers were:
Bend all types res
169 Sold @ $335k
in 2006 it was 190 Sold @$336k
I looked all the way back to 1997 and can't find a Feb. with such low sales. In 97 it was 101 sold @ a median of 118k. Might have to go back to 1987 to get that low. MLS only goes back to 97.
I posted this at Bendbb...
marge, you are a Goddess!
Paul, not sure why you dumped Clive's Realtor.com tracking link. Did you have the wrong URL? I look at it weekly.
Huh... it was down for several months way back, and I just stopped looking. Glad to see it back.
I put back the link to it.
Re: bruce, is that first one in Redmond, or what?
Yes.
Any bets on when we see the first new house going for under $100 sq ft in Bend?
Tents are gone from Drake Park, now no where for city-hall to wine and snort cocaine using city money. Juniper Park near Summit High School may allow small drinking tent, perhaps its back to the cars, or Bend's 'beautiful people' may start tail-gaiting.
***
Cascade Music Festival 'folds tent' to save it
Posted: March 1, 2008 12:29 PM
Cascade Festival of Music plans to return to Drake Park setting in 2009 but will move to Bend HS this summer (photos courtesy Cascade Festival of Music)
Cascade Festival of Music plans to return to Drake Park setting in 2009 but will move to Bend HS this summer (photos courtesy Cascade Festival of Music)
Will move from Drake Park setting to Bend HS
By Barney Lerten, KTVZ.COM
You could say the Cascade Festival of Music, fiscally challenged in its 27th season, is going to fold its tent this summer, in order not to fold its tent - in other words, to stay afloat and erase its red ink in financially tough times.
Kathleen Cody, executive director of the popular August event (www.cascademusic.org), announced Friday that this year's concerts won't be held in a traditional large tent at Drake Park, but at the Bend High School auditorium instead.
The tent has been used since the festival's early days, when it moved from the then-Inn of the Seventh Mountain, but this year's shift indoors will "save us about $100,000" in expenses, Cody told KTVZ.COM.
45 Sold @ median of $322,500
Bend all types of residential
58 Sold @ median of $327,500
Current active listings are 1876.
Hopefully a few more sales will be reported next week as brokers catch up with reporting to MLS.
*
Fuck MLS, Fuck MLS-MEDIANS in Bend.
There are areas near Sacramento with real -50% drops, given that MLS is dead, and future RE flipping will take place outside of MLS, its probably best to focus on county recording's, and whether deals are cash or loan, that ratio versus time would very interesting.
Everybody here always wants to stay focussed on MLS and they're fucking chery-picked stat's.
More important is ...
1.) The number of homeless,
2.) The number of good jobs ( < 10,000 )
3.) The number of recordings
4.) The number of foreclosures, shorts, and walk-aways, ...
5.) Suicides,
6.) Homes destroyed by fire,
7.) STD closing versus inner city closings
8.) Cash recorded prices versus loan recorded, watch the trend line to see what the cost ratio for cash buyers is, ...
9.) Which areas are selling cash, and which are sold with loans,
There's lots of trends that can be watched, probably the number 1 reason that MLS has dropped like a rock, is because MLS itself is fucked, and imploding, thus quit being fucking lazy and let MLS bunny's feed you your stat's get off your ass and use actual recording's which actually gives credible legal information.
Garbage IN, Garbage OUT, BENDBB, HERE, everywhere, everyone uses the MLS data from the same source like it were fucking GOLD, when in fact the MLS data can't be verified, and its always been massaged.
Duncan today asks for predictions, but his questions fall back to the same fucking framework of MLS, I have said for over a year here FUCK MLS MEDIANS THEY DON"T MEAN SHIT.
It's time to start using your brain, and use real data, and NOT be led around by the leash by MLS Pr Bunny's.
\\|//
Central Oregon homeowners should eat their spinach
By Jon Williams / Bulletin guest columnist
Published: March 01. 2008 4:00AM PST
When I think of the current housing market, I’m reminded of my elementary school days and having hot lunch. I remember the savory green slime of canned spinach complete with the little flecks of onion. The kind every kid refused to eat out of fear for peer repercussion for swallowing the green goo. So, what does this have to do with the current housing market? I’ll get to this.
As we all realize, we’ve come to the end of the housing market bubble with blame laid on overzealous lenders and underqualified borrowers, the question of what happens next arises. I would like to think I had an original idea as I have been pondering this for months. However, when the president of Brooks Resources commented in The Bulletin that the market might need to move to 2003 median home prices before a turnaround, I realized my idea may have merit.
It is obvious that one day the housing market will again show appreciation. The question is when. If the housing market is to start moving again, I believe the market must stop waiting for a sunny day. One of the reasons the market is sluggish now is because the values grew beyond what an average buyer could afford. The simplest solution is to get back to what is affordable.
Historically, the rule of thumb for home appreciation has been around 4.5 percent per year. Some markets are higher and some lower. I’m sure there are those who would say Central Oregon has been on the high side, and statistics may support it. So let’s bump it up a percentage point (5.5 percent) but keep in mind we are at the precipice of a wild ride if we hold out for the days of double-digit appreciation. Now, according to both the Central Oregon Realtors and Economic Development for Central Oregon (EDCO) Web sites, the 2003 median home price was $195,000. If we took this number and bumped it up 5.5 percent per year up to the beginning of 2008 we would have a value of around $244,000, similar to the amount The Bulletin believed to be the 2003 median price.
The first question that comes to mind is, “How can this be used as median price reflects homes already sold?” Maybe it can be used as a gauge to adjust existing prices or for buyers to make offers. This new value is roughly 29 percent less than the current median value. A home buyer in theory could make offers at 71 percent of current asking price. In this instance an offer on a $650,000 would be $461,500.
I suppose we all could wait while the market continues to flat line. Or we could see if a recession pulls values back to what is reasonable. Or we could “adjust” the prices to what would likely be more realistic if there wasn’t such an outrageous housing boom. Of course many will read this and say, “There’s no way I’m going to take a loss on my investment. It’s real estate and it just doesn’t lose value.” Well, of course it shouldn’t lose value if it were “real” value. But most prices in this area are based on speculation or perceived value. This isn’t real, but hopeful value. The market swung too far into the realm of investment and lost the simple sight of home ownership. The quicker the market swings back to an affordable level, the quicker people like me will be willing and able to purchase a home for ownership.
Now, you ask, what about the spinach? Well, when I was young I loved that salty, slimy, green stuff. I wanted so badly to eat it and my neighbors’ as well. But I was so worried of teasing and ridicule, I would let it fall into the garbage barrel. What I realized later in life is I was not the only one who wanted to eat that stuff but didn’t due to fear of the outcome. I believe there are some owners, builders and Realtors with this same feeling about this market. They would be willing to step back to what is feasible and appropriate to stimulate this sagging market but are fearful of the irrational repercussions of their neighbor. Funny thing is, their neighbor likely has the same desire.
Instead, look back at the median home price of, say, five years ago, tack 5 percent a year to that value as a reasonable increase in your investment up to 2008. One of the reasons the market is sluggish is because the values grew beyond what an average buyer could afford. The simplest solution is to get back to what is affordable.
The current housing issue reminds me of when I was in elementary school. I remember the hot lunch goodness of creamed spinach. You know, the kind with the little onion flecks.
Jon Williams lives in Bend.
\\|//
Central Oregon homeowners should eat their spinach
By Jon Williams / Bulletin guest columnist
Published: March 01. 2008 4:00AM PST
When I think of the current housing market, I’m reminded of my elementary school days and having hot lunch. I remember the savory green slime of canned spinach complete with the little flecks of onion. The kind every kid refused to eat out of fear for peer repercussion for swallowing the green goo. So, what does this have to do with the current housing market? I’ll get to this.
As we all realize, we’ve come to the end of the housing market bubble with blame laid on overzealous lenders and underqualified borrowers, the question of what happens next arises. I would like to think I had an original idea as I have been pondering this for months. However, when the president of Brooks Resources commented in The Bulletin that the market might need to move to 2003 median home prices before a turnaround, I realized my idea may have merit.
It is obvious that one day the housing market will again show appreciation. The question is when. If the housing market is to start moving again, I believe the market must stop waiting for a sunny day. One of the reasons the market is sluggish now is because the values grew beyond what an average buyer could afford. The simplest solution is to get back to what is affordable.
Historically, the rule of thumb for home appreciation has been around 4.5 percent per year. Some markets are higher and some lower. I’m sure there are those who would say Central Oregon has been on the high side, and statistics may support it. So let’s bump it up a percentage point (5.5 percent) but keep in mind we are at the precipice of a wild ride if we hold out for the days of double-digit appreciation. Now, according to both the Central Oregon Realtors and Economic Development for Central Oregon (EDCO) Web sites, the 2003 median home price was $195,000. If we took this number and bumped it up 5.5 percent per year up to the beginning of 2008 we would have a value of around $244,000, similar to the amount The Bulletin believed to be the 2003 median price.
The first question that comes to mind is, “How can this be used as median price reflects homes already sold?” Maybe it can be used as a gauge to adjust existing prices or for buyers to make offers. This new value is roughly 29 percent less than the current median value. A home buyer in theory could make offers at 71 percent of current asking price. In this instance an offer on a $650,000 would be $461,500.
I suppose we all could wait while the market continues to flat line. Or we could see if a recession pulls values back to what is reasonable. Or we could “adjust” the prices to what would likely be more realistic if there wasn’t such an outrageous housing boom. Of course many will read this and say, “There’s no way I’m going to take a loss on my investment. It’s real estate and it just doesn’t lose value.” Well, of course it shouldn’t lose value if it were “real” value. But most prices in this area are based on speculation or perceived value. This isn’t real, but hopeful value. The market swung too far into the realm of investment and lost the simple sight of home ownership. The quicker the market swings back to an affordable level, the quicker people like me will be willing and able to purchase a home for ownership.
Now, you ask, what about the spinach? Well, when I was young I loved that salty, slimy, green stuff. I wanted so badly to eat it and my neighbors’ as well. But I was so worried of teasing and ridicule, I would let it fall into the garbage barrel. What I realized later in life is I was not the only one who wanted to eat that stuff but didn’t due to fear of the outcome. I believe there are some owners, builders and Realtors with this same feeling about this market. They would be willing to step back to what is feasible and appropriate to stimulate this sagging market but are fearful of the irrational repercussions of their neighbor. Funny thing is, their neighbor likely has the same desire.
Instead, look back at the median home price of, say, five years ago, tack 5 percent a year to that value as a reasonable increase in your investment up to 2008. One of the reasons the market is sluggish is because the values grew beyond what an average buyer could afford. The simplest solution is to get back to what is affordable.
The current housing issue reminds me of when I was in elementary school. I remember the hot lunch goodness of creamed spinach. You know, the kind with the little onion flecks.
Jon Williams lives in Bend.
I wasn't asking for predictions so much as for benchmarks. What would constitute success, or failure? So the goalposts can't be constantly moved. If sales are twice as good in June as January, I don't want to real estaters to pop up and say, See? Success! If sales are pretty good, say 250 houses, we bubble busters shouldn't be able to pop up and say, "Yeah, but we sold 350 in 2006!"
Set the goalposts before the game starts.
The MLS compared to MLS at least is comparing the same tool (assuming, I guess, that they don't change how they count.)
There just way too many ways to measure these things, and everyone can nitpick any group of stats until they don't mean anything.
House sales can be up one day, down the next, and it may be "new" vs. "old" but all the public hears are "Sales."
I'm totally with you that median's don't mean shit. That's a whole different subject, and a total wild assed guess, which I addressed a week or two ago. (My guess, it would reach bottom in Dec. 2010, if I remember.) Median prices will hit a low of 250k to 260k, or 2001 medians plus 5% up to Dec. 2010. Rough estimates and wild assed guesses and fairly meaningless in the here and now.
Like you said, it don't mean shit if they aren't selling.
Besides, until the prices come down, we can't even know if we are just pushing a wet noodle or not. It's entirely possible prices could drop 30% and there are still no qualified takers.
Rough estimates and wild assed guesses and fairly meaningless in the here and now.
*
That's why its important to NOTE real numbers of PAIN.
How about taxes, the property tax is late all over the country, forget about walking & jingle-mail, non-payment of property tax is a public record, or late-payment.
Pain, Poverty, Crime, there are a zillion ways to measure the RE suffering in BEND, OR.
What I'm trying to say is that #1 fallout from this RECOLLAPSE will be the COLLAPSE of MLS/NAR, and all these whores, REHO's we used to call them.
There are building permits, there is recorded closings, there are recorded liens, and ... there are a zillion things that different people in this group can and should be tracking if they really wanted to know the fucking truth.
But HELL-NO MLS & NAR got you into this miss, and most of you are still feed at the MLS/NAR pig trough for all your fucking data. ALL of you,
Crime, Rape, Robbery, ... Hell during the last collapse siphoning of fuel sky-rocketed, these are the things that tell us if & when things are getting better or worse.
FUCK NAR & MLS somebody please start tracking real information that objectively tells us something about BEND-OR.
ANYBODY who reports NAR and/or MLS is no different than the BULL or SORE, just another REHO.
Re: Besides, until the prices come down, we can't even know if we are just pushing a wet noodle or not. It's entirely possible prices could drop 30% and there are still no qualified takers.
Dunc, that's why I think we will bottom out below $250K medians. We simply don't have the income base.
This is especially rich:
http://docs.google.com/TeamPresent?docid=ddp4zq7n_0cdjsr4fn&skipauth=true&pli=1
It's called "The Subprime Primer", a crude cartoon written by someone with a bit of knowledge.
Slide 29 made me laugh out loud.
I'm starting to think that the overall crap is so bad we better really concentrate on our local area if we plan to stick around.
PS In the background I have CSPAN on and Bush just came on talking about his drug abuse prevention programs. Starts right at home!
PPS Paul-doh, thanks for the link :)
Re: FUCK NAR & MLS somebody please start tracking real information that objectively tells us something about BEND-OR.
Dude, real work starts with yourself.
Put you boots on the ground and your keys on your keyboard and do it. Don't just bitch.
The county recorder site is a good place to start, why not spend a couple of hours downloading the 200+ PDF's of "Notice of Default With Intention to Sell" records and count the number in each area? That way we could compare them to reported sales for each city.
Here is the site:
http://recordings.co.deschutes.or.us/Search.asp
Very interesting site: http://www.rgemonitor.com/
I look at charts like the one halfway down on this website and I wonder if our paradigm is sustainable: http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/245171/
Our economy is built on a backbone of growth, of more bodies making more stuff. Not to be rude, but making contraception illegal is pro-growth.
What do we do when "more bodies" levels off? As it is starting to do in many places.
Both macro and micro, i.e. Bend, for us.
Fear NOT brother bruce, if everyone of us marries a cave-dwarf wife by the bushel and lay's our seed, then there will be 2**12 seed in the womb, jeebus lives in Bend. Our fruit will multiply.
Bruce Pussy, heir to the thrown of Gondor, and all of Dwarf Pussy City,
Good tidings to all fellow MORMRONS, Now if you can only get the other Nazgul in Bend, as riled up as yea,
Speaketh, thus MORMRON kin, speaketh,
Me beginning to think that 'marge' ( mrs fucker ) is a pseudonym for bruce-pussy.
Re: Bruce Pussy, heir to the thrown of Gondor, etc....
Don't know what you're talking about, as I'm not a Mormon.
Sorry for your stupidity. This site might help you out a little: http://www.newgrounds.com/collection/youareafuckingmoron
Don't know what you're talking about, as I'm not a Mormon.
*
Baby Bru-jeebus, do not deny the brotherhood, on the 4th day, of the second dawn, they brother Mormron Jeeeeebus will be blow their horn through thine mormRON household, and all thee wives shall arise as one,
hey, I voted for "bruce pussy" for Mayor of Bend, and all I got was this 'book of Mormron',
Re: Book of Mormron
It will tell you all about the real life of Jeebus after ascension to Central America. All truth, trust in Jeebus....
Sorry for getting a little snippy last night.
BULL: "Budget cuts may slow fire response; Bend Fire Department eyes overtime, hiring as areas to be slashed"
"You have to water your lawn every other damned day from spring through fall."
Frequent shallow watering encourages shallow roots and weak grass. You shouldn't water more than once every four days, about an inch at a time. Water early in the morning to minimize loss thru evaporation. Maybe your soil is compacted and water's running off instead of sinking in, in which case aeration would help.
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