Monday, February 18, 2008

"Best Buyers Market In 20 Years, Can I Fuck You?"

Addendum:
YoY Feb stats posted by mstucker on BendBB, Feb 19 11:14AM:
Looks worse than Jan.
Feb 07 sales for stick built homes on an acre 2/1 thru 2/19 were 76 and med $'s was 370k

Feb 08 same period solds are only 19 at a med $ of 332,500.
Wow one per day....maybe we will hit the big 30 !!!


The outrage of the week (and month, year, and decade) goes to the MOTHERFUCKIN SLEEZEBALLS at COBA.

These cocksucking LIARS came up with their weak-ass lame little PR load of shit, and are circulating it far and wide as a way to saddle you with their worthless ass inventory.

OK, I'm FINE with stupid ass, lie-packed PR & Marketing bullshit. If I weren't, I would have done GAGGED TO DEATH on the non-stop bullshit spewing forth from Norma DuBois, Becky, and others of the Realtor ilk.

No, what is absolutely nauseating, and seemingly illegal, is THE OVERT EFFORT to:

1) COLLUDE

2) MISLEAD

3) MANIPULATE, AND

4) FINANCIALLY BLACKMAIL


Bend citizens via the local media.


COLLUDE:

So what? Big deal, collusion is part & parcel of every decent PR effort. It's certainly a lame-ass, but long-honored tradition of local RE interests, to give the illusion of some sort of grass-roots groundswell of demand. It's a weakass attempt to somehow create the illusion that amidst overwhelming depression in their market, that there is a large unspoken contingent that believes ALL IS WELL.

OK, fine. Collusion on it's own maybe insufficient to skewer these fuckers. But, they also want to....

MISLEAD:

How's this for a COBA quote?

Following the initial press release each participating business will be responsible for releasing "good news" stories. These press releases will cover a variety of subjects predominately focusing on "good news" stories and op-ed opinions of all participating businesses. Each of the organizations should actively solicit "good news" and "actual fact" stories.

Look HARD at this.

Notice "GOOD NEWS" is always in quotes.

You know, I always use the old "FINGER QUOTES" when I want to make it quite clear to someone THAT I AM LYING about that particular line.

In the final sentence they go so far as to distinguish "good news" (aka LIES), from "actual fact", AS IF THE TWO ARE 100% DISTINCT & SEPARATE CONCEPTS.

EVEN COBA IMPLICITLY ADMITS THEY ARE TRYING TO LIE & SPREAD FALSEHOODS TO GET YOU TO BUY A HOUSE.

Further, here is anther COBA quote:

After seeing multiple national stories printed and broadcast in local media, the six groups partnered to dissuade the notion that the national trends applied to the local market.

Wow. Now it makes sense. This explains the non-stop media barrage of LIE-FUELED IDIOCY about how Bend is 100% insulated from the BUST OF THE HOUSING BUBBLE.

Right, right, right, right, right, right, right...

OK, so Bend:

1) PARTICIPATED on the UPSIDE MORE THAN ANY OTHER METRO AREA IN THE US
2) ALL OTHER HYPER-BUBBLE MARKETS, LIKE VEGAS, MIAMI, LA, SACRAMENTO, PHOENIX and the rest are busting HARDER than anywhere.
3) But Bend, at the ABSOLUTE TOP OF THAT LIST, is 100% IMMUNE.

If you believe a syllable of that, you should go back & get your GED. Learn to read. Or add. Get a job at Goodwill, and not a good one, but a dumbshit job where you don't use your brain AT ALL. Cuz you are a mental incompetent.


MANIPULATE:

Here's more insanity:

Write up a press release of a "Good News" story, send it out and follow up with a phone call. Repeat Often!! This is key!! We have to produce enough "Good News" stories to move the national "wire" stories from the front page or the lead in story.

YES. This is their actual goal. To flood local news outlets with such a quantity of "GOOD NEWS" stories, so that ACTUAL NEWS FROM THE WIRE SERVICES is NOT PRINTED.

THEY DO NOT WANT YOU TO HEAR ANY BAD NEWS ABOUT THE RE MARKET, AND THEY ARE WILLING TO MANIPULATE LOCAL MEDIA TO DO IT.

They want to STUFF THE LOCAL MEDIA CHANNEL so badly that the NATIONAL BAD NEWS is never run. 100% manipulation.

OK. So maybe they are attempting to LIE, CHEAT & STEAL from you. Big Whoop. So far this is just a concerted effort to RIP YOU OFF. So what?

FINANCIAL BLACKMAIL:

Here's the nail in the coffin. The reason this thing feels like ILLEGAL COLLUSION TO MANIPULATE THE MARKET:

Additionally each of the participating organizations are requested to utilize their advertising strength & partnerships to "economically encourage" local media to print and broadcast the stories.

Well, there you have it. A very thinly veiled THREAT that if the local media doesn't print these LIES, there will be hell to pay. This is where this thing crosses into ILLEGAL MARKET MANIPULATION. PRICE FIXING. COLLUSION. RACKETEERING.

KNOW THIS: When you deal with COBA, you are dealing with near-pathological LIARS hell bent on doing whatever is necessary to sell you their wares. Even if it involves LYING, COLLUSION, MEDIA MANIPULATION, or anything else.

FUCK THESE FUCKERS. I guarantee you one thing, IF AND WHEN I buy a house around here, I WILL EXPLICITLY NOT BUY FROM A COBA MEMBER. Or even a COBA supporter.

This is the sort of mindless insanity that the vast Central Oregon RE machine thinks will WORK ON YOUR STUPID ASS, AND GET YOU TO BUY A HOUSE FROM THEM.

Listen up COBA dumbfucks: You CANNOT MARKET or PR your way out of a bubble bursting. And when you did all in your power to make the bubble expand beyond the bursting point to THE MOST OVERVALUED MARKET IN THE US, know that it is not going to end well. It WILL BURST, DESTROYING YOU, YOUR MEMBERS, and most of our local economy.

And just because you & your GREEDY-ASS MEMBERS are hurting, doesn't mean you can LIE, CHEAT, and STEAL your way into a "great housing market". No. Not gonna happen.

Central Oregon RE is 100% DOOMED, which of course means Central Oregon's Economy is 100% DOOMED. And YOU CREATED THIS STATE OF AFFAIRS. YOU. Not me. Not BEM. Nobody else. You greedy-ass fuckers are 100% to blame.

Now here's what's going to happen:

1) Your LAME-ASS PR will not work. Anyone who actually buys a home based on your lying ass bullshit, should actually save a copy of your Market Collusion Plan, and sue your ass in 5 years when their STD-laden shit shack:

A) Falls apart due to shoddy workmanship, and
B) Falls 50% or more in value

2) The Bend RE Market will continue to implode. Ain't no power on Earth that'll stop this. Why? OK, listen close, you stupid COBA buttfuckers:

THERE AIN'T NO MONEY LEFT

I know, it's hard to follow. Especially since your 3rd grade educated ass was rolling in money just a year or two ago. OK, here's another whacky corollary of what happens in a bubble:

DUMBFUCKS LIKE YOU MAKE LOTS OF MONEY

I know you want it to happen again, but it won't. If COBA dumbfucks could ALWAYS make millions, then the average mental-retard would be a billionaire, and that ain't gonna happen.

3) Home prices will implode 50+%

This is good news for COBA retards. Cuz this is when your dumbfuck members will actually make money again. Not before. And NEVER AGAIN as much as you made in 2004-2006. EVER.

Cuz at THAT POINT Bend will have had a GIANT ECONOMIC SHIT TAKEN ON IT. Bend itself will go broke. Prices will implode here FOR A REASON. I won't bore you with the fact that diverting SDC charges from the City into the coffers of COBA members made this possible, and that the fix will involve the TAXING of every single person in Central Oregon into the poor house.

WE ARE PAYING FOR COBA, The City of Bend, and Local Medias PAST COLLUSION. Pot holes, unbuilt parks, fired cops, unplowed roads (except the road to Bachelor of course... don't want capacity utilization to fall below 125%... there might be some SKIING done!). Plus there's going to be the CRIME! YEAHHH! Oh, right. And the HOMELESSNESS & METH! Whoopee!

Good call COBA. You lying, greedy, manipulative, colluding fuckwads have DOOMED THIS TOWN.

Are you asking how you can empty your Bubble-stuffed coffers to fund the remediation of some of these problems? Are you trying to EDUCATE & INFORM and talk the market toward a stable and economically reasonable equilibrium? Are you willing to talk as much about the BAD as well as the GOOD that may have been created by YOUR ACTIONS?

No.

No, you fuckers wanna keep the party going via MEDIA CHANNEL STUFFING, "GOOD NEWS" PR (AKA LYING), and every other imaginary artifice that you can muster, and you don't give a fuck about bankrupting the citizenry, ruining the reputation of the media (too late), or even our local Chamber of Commerce to do it.

So, no. I won't be buying a house being sold by one of your SLEEZY ASS MEMBERS in the near future. I'll wait until you fuckers are curled up in a fetal position, DYING. And even then, I'll think long and hard, and if I can I'LL KICK YOU WHEN YOU'RE DOWN, YOU LYING CUNTS!

FUCK YOU COBA!

I hope you fuckers go BUST.

And the Best Part of this LAME ASS COBA BULLSHIT? They actually want members, AND OTHER LEGITIMATE CENTRAL OREGON ORGANIZATIONS TO ANSWER THEIR PHONE LIKE THIS:

Write up a phone answering script for your office... "Best Buyers Market in 20 Years, The Bend Chamber of Commerce"

Seriously. They want businesses to say THAT. To date, ZERO organizations have even come close. Wait... there is one.

Cascade Business Buttfuckers

Of course. Should have known these pathetic fucks bit hook, line and sinker on the COBA fueled idiocy. On page 25, there is a "Good News" piece by one Tim Knopp, who just happens to be EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT OF COBA. Title of this LEGITIMATE NEWS STORY?

"Best Buyers' Market in Central Oregon in Past 20 Years"

Dang. That sounds like real NEWS!

There's some real solid reasons for reconsidering THE LIES being foisted on us by The National Media, according to Mr Knopp:

Despite the doom and gloom painted by the national media and politicians, the real estate market has corrected itself and their promotion of a mortgage crisis appears to be the creation of a cause for which they would like to offer a government solution.

OK Knopp, I'm with ya. So the real estate problem was really an illusion drummed up by the media & government so that they could manufacture a solution to the problem.

Right!

See, I never thought of that! Gat DAMN those fuckers! Fuckin media & the government up to their old tricks of TRYING TO CRIPPLE THE NATIONAL ECONOMY, while COBA and it's members try heroically to save us all from destruction. But wait, there's more:

Unfortunately, national politicians are creating poor consumer confidence by attempting to institute yet another government fix that won't work.

Mother fuck. Is there anything the government won't do in it's hellbent-for-leather attempts to destroy us! Well, according to Knopp, HELL NO!

And FuckN-A if COBA and it's members aren't the only ones trying to save us. This fuckin government & media fueled bubble was manufactured SOLELY for the goal of wrecking our economy, and America's steadfast, principled, and measured braintrust, AMERICAS HOME BUILDERS, watched in horror as the heinous RE bubble lined their pockets with BILLIONS despite their best efforts to avert this tragedy.

Folks, I was wrong.

COBA is trying to do the right thing by us. And luckily we can count on Cascade Business Buttbangers to get the word out this economically oppressed group. They've done nothing but fight selflessly the greed-fueled government, NATIONAL POLITICIANS, and crooked media who have done nothing but MANIFEST FEAR about a NON-EXISTENT mortgage implosion, and an illusory housing market bust.

Well FUCK THAT. I'm going to DO MY PART, and buy 3 or 4 OR MORE STD tract shitholes, and frankly I don't give a fuck if I lose my shirt. There is NO PROBLEM. Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE should own 5 or 6 homes. If not us, THEN WHO?

OK, so stop reading this FUCKIN BLOG, and call your broker, bank, COBA, and anyone else who'll listen AND YOU START BUYING A FUCKIN HOUSE OR TWO, YOU UNPATRIOTIC MOTHERFUCKERS! The fuckin government & national media are trying to WRECK OUR FUCKIN LIVES by CREATING a mortgage crisis. FUCK THAT! There ain't no mortgage crisis!

That massive housing inventory reported each month by MLS? That is GOVERNMENT PROPOGANDA! Your inability to sell your house? THAT'S THE FUCKIN NAZI'S! Those "stories" about a collapsing housing market? That's the fuckin media trying to FUCK YOU IN THE ASS!

And if ANY BUSINESS in CENTRAL OREGON doesn't answer their phone "BEST BUYERS MARKET IN 20 YEARS", YOU TELL THEM TO, "FUCK OFF, YOU COMMIE FUCKERS!"

248 comments:

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Anonymous said...

Right on. I have been ranting for two weeks since this pr bullshit started. What the fuck is it with this town when everybody figures they'll just market their way out of trouble. This country is in deep shit. There is not one reason to think that we aren't headed for the biggest recession in decades. We need to invite Larry Kudlow to Bend and have him start a big circle jerk at the riverhouse, and then have a big group chant. Repeat after me.....Goldilocks.....Goldilocks.....Goldilocks....

Anonymous said...

Well FUCK THAT. I'm going to DO MY PART, and buy 3 or 4 OR MORE STD tract shitholes, and frankly I don't give a fuck if I lose my shirt. There is NO PROBLEM. Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE should own 5 or 6 homes. If not us, THEN WHO?

*

You've already flipped one house since you moved to Bend, why not 3 or 4 more?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

This rant was inspired by one "Bruce" over on BendBB:

I was talking about the press parroting lies in a collaborative effort to achieve some nefarious goal that will lead to certain parties making money while many others get hurt.

Good call Brucey!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I should say, the house I "flipped" here, I actually lived in for 2 1/2 years.

My own definition of flipping typically involves:

1) Homes you don't live in, or maybe live in for 30-60 days to make mortgage lies you tell believable
2) You put them up for sale in under a year.
3) You conduct this activity in a serial basis...

And I exclude people who put substantial amounts of time, effort & money into serially rehabbing homes. To me that's close enough to a "real job" to exclude it from "flipping". There's real value being added there. "Flipping" adds nothing, and is predominately speculative in nature.

Just my opinion.

Anonymous said...

The word fuck is one of the few words in the english language that can be used as a verb, adverb, noun and pronoun.

You could have saved us some reading time by writing a single sentence that showcases fucks amazing versatility and still makes your point.

Allow me.

COBA: Fuck you, you fucking fucks!

Anonymous said...

I should say, the house I "flipped" here, I actually lived in for 2 1/2 years.

*

Just long enough to get the tax break. Well done Flipper.

timothy said...

http://davidfoster.biz/Market08/index.html

timothy said...

>>COBA: Fuck you, you fucking fucks!

Ben: To your health.
Frank Booth: Ah, shit, let's drink to something else. Let's drink to fucking. Yeah, say, "Here's to your fuck, Frank."
Ben: If you like, Frank. Here's to your fuck.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


Just long enough to get the tax break. Well done Flipper.


Fuck'n A right, fuckin fucker!

Anonymous said...

\\|//

More people moving in, but at a slower pace
California continues to be No. 1 feeder market by far
By David Fisher / The Bulletin
Published: February 17. 2008 4:00AM PST

Back in 2006, Altrec.com CEO Mike Morford and his managers figured they had to get their company out of Seattle.

The offices of the online seller of outdoor gear were 15 traffic-choked miles from its warehouse, and it was running out of space. It was tough to compete for top-level techies in a region dominated by Amazon.com and Microsoft, Morford recalled Wednesday. People’s commutes were tough.

Nobody, in other words, was having much fun. So the company cast a net around seven or eight Western towns and regions, including Central Oregon, weighing 20 or more different variables, from transportation to space availability to state incentives, to find a new place.

It settled on Redmond.

Since it moved in September 2006, the company has brought 17 families to Central Oregon from outside the area, Morford said. Its total staff has tripled, partly because it has been relatively easy to attract talented people to the area to keep its Web design, marketing and search engine functions going, and partly because it has found a reasonable supply of them here.

“It actually has worked out better than we thought it would,” Morford said. “We knew it was going to be fun, in the sense of moving to Central Oregon, but I’ve been amazed at the number of people from places like San Francisco and Seattle who know about Bend. They have a place in Sunriver, or they’ve vacationed here or something, and they are trying to figure out how to live here.”

The total number of new families moving into and out of the area has slowed with the national housing slump, if data on interstate shipments from three of the country’s largest movers is any indication, but the basic trend remains strong. People who can afford to move, and who can afford to hire movers, continue to prefer moving into Central Oregon to moving out of it by about a 2-to-1 margin.

Overall in 2007, United Van Lines LLC, Mayflower Transit LLC and Atlas Van Lines Inc. reported 369 shipments into Central Oregon’s three counties, and 179 shipments to other states.

California accounted for the bulk of the inbound shipments with 37.9 percent, followed by shipments from Washington state at 9.8 percent.

Overall, four times more Californians moved in than moved out, with 140 coming in to 33 moving out. Washington’s 36 inbound shipments exactly doubled the number moving out of the region to that state, but some numbers were more balanced. Sixteen shipments headed for Arizona, while only 19 came in from there, according to statistics from the three movers. Colorado sent 18 shipments into Central Oregon, but got 15 back.

Massachusetts was the only net draw from the Central Oregon region, attracting eight shipments out, but sending only two back.

Slowdown in moves

The inbound migration pattern may have remained strong through 2007, nearly exactly reflecting the 2-to-1 inbound ratio of 2006. But the total amount of movement dropped substantially.

The 369 inbound trips of 2007 were down nearly 15 percent from 2006. Outbound moves dipped, too, dropping 10.5 percent from 2006 to 179.

The data, collected from the three movers last week by The Bulletin, gives an incomplete picture of the region’s total migration pattern because it includes only interstate moves. Moves within Oregon are regulated by a different arm of government that doesn’t require the same type of data collection.

Still, the drop in overall numbers reflects a national slowdown in shipments, Atlas Van Lines spokeswoman Barbara Cox said, which is grounded in a single factor: A sluggish housing market is making it tougher for people to sell their homes where they are, which makes it tougher for them to relocate.

The slowdown is as apparent in Central Oregon, a region whose housing economy has traditionally been dependent on newcomers for its strength, as it is in the rest of the country.

Sales of single-family homes on lots dropped 26.7 percent to 1,520 last year in Bend, according to the Central Oregon Association of Realtors, while the number of homes listed for sale topped 1,200 at the end of the year. Redmond’s sales fell even further, dropping nearly 43 percent to 516, with more than 500 homes still listed for sale at the end of the year.

As they have in much of the country, slowing sales are translating into lower prices.

In west Bend’s NorthWest Crossing, a 400-acre subdivision developed by Brooks Resources Corp. and Tennant Development, sales of housing units slid into the 45 to 50 range in 2006 and 2007, from the 105 sold in 2005, according to David Quiros, principal broker at NorthWest Crossing Realty.

About 75 percent of the NorthWest Crossing inventory that sold last year went to buyers from outside the area, at prices that were significantly off. Lots in the subdivision today are listed as low as $138,000, he said, down from the spring 2006 peaks of nearly $200,000.

The fiercest downturn in moving activity seemed to settle in last fall, a couple of months after a credit crunch bit the nation’s mortgage lending markets, said Harold Perry, owner of local Atlas agent City Moving and Storage Co., and it hasn’t picked up yet.

“We had some things going last year, but jeez, there’s nothing going on this year,” Perry said, calling this year the worst winter he’s seen in the local moving business since the early 1980s. “You could almost go to sleep and not miss anything, so it’s bad. Whether it comes back or not is anybody’s guess.”

Given the number of unsold houses in Central Oregon and its biggest feeder markets, the leaders of Brooks Resources, the region’s biggest development company, figure that land and home prices may have to work their way back roughly to 2003 levels before the market regains some semblance of supply-and-demand balance, Brooks Resources President Kirk Schueler said. That would bring median home prices in Bend back to the mid-$200,000 range.

The median sales price through 2007 for Bend homes on lots stood at about $349,000, according to the Central Oregon Multiple Listing Service.

“Our prediction — I guess maybe it’s a hope — is that it squares around when we get back around the 2003 area,” Schueler said, “and it varies. Different pockets of town will do better than others.”

Who wants to be here

Meanwhile, Nancy Lynch, who’s owned local United Van Lines agent Bend Storage & Transfer Inc. since 1981, said she expects the same kinds of migration patterns to continue, even if they happen in reduced numbers. Some will move here from warmer climates, then move back again after a few winters of snow and cold. Some will move here with half-formed dreams of economic success, then fail and move away.

On balance, though, the area for more than a decade has been a magnet for retiring baby boomers and others who are anxious to get away from the rat races, Lynch said, and the ones who have either brought jobs or money with them — or both — have had the best luck sticking.

If they can get here.

California reported its lowest number of outbound moves in more than a decade, according to Atlas’ year-end report, possibly because people found it difficult to extricate themselves from houses in that state’s hard-hit markets. But despite the national slowdown in movement, Atlas’ national statistics still indicated a strong inclination for people in the country to move West, according to the company’s year-end report, with net movement particularly strong into the Northwest.

Falling prices in the local housing stock might actually help the region pull out of its funk faster than the rest of the nation, since its underlying desirability apparently remains undiminished, said Roger Lee, executive director of Economic Development for Central Oregon.

“People still want to own homes and, in our case, boomers still want to be in the Pacific Northwest,” Lee said, “so things are playing well for us. If we were in the same position in Detroit, I don’t know what my forecast would be.”

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

http://davidfoster.biz/Market08/index.html

Contributing to and perhaps exacerbating the problems, the national media started hyping the problems with the market. In 2007, you could open just about any newspaper or watch TV just about any evening and see or read about some doom-and-gloom news about the "mortgage market crisis", "the foreclosure crisis", the "tanking real estate market", etc.

The national message about the real estate market has spawned a lot of misleading information, and resulted in many buyers losing confidence in the market, and convinced many to wait for prices to crash.


David has clearly received his Best Nuyers Market PR kit...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

That's Best BUYERS Market in 20 Years!

Anonymous said...

Best buyer's market in 20 years? Maybe. But that's quite different from being a market that is "best for the buyer." Ask the buyers who buy now after they watch the values of their new home purchases continue to sink.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Back in 2006, Altrec.com CEO Mike Morford and his managers figured they had to get their company out of Seattle.

It settled on Redmond.


It should be noted that Altrec received HUGE financial incentives to move to Redmond. MILLIONS in tax breaks.

Whn Altrec "cast it's net", it was looking to see who it could fleece the hardest...

IT SETTLED ON REDMOND.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

....they are trying to figure out how to live here.

That has been covered in prior posts about GRIFTING.

Note that the head of Altrec IMPLICITLY ACKNOWLEDGES that Standard Operating Procedure for living somewhere, ie WORKING, is impractical in Central Oregon.

You can't just come here AND WORK, and expect to survive. That means you have to start grifting, pulling a Holzman - Kuratek ripoff, or something else. You gotta fleece the locals.

Plain hard work at a Real Business is an almost ridiculous proposition here.

Bend Economy Man said...

Given the number of unsold houses in Central Oregon and its biggest feeder markets, the leaders of Brooks Resources, the region’s biggest development company, figure that land and home prices may have to work their way back roughly to 2003 levels before the market regains some semblance of supply-and-demand balance, Brooks Resources President Kirk Schueler said. That would bring median home prices in Bend back to the mid-$200,000 range.

So did Brooks Resources, umm, not get the COBA memo or what?

Paul you're really callin' 'em as you see 'em with this post, and the f-bomb count is truly Tarantinesque, but here in 2008 it seems like you might be just tilting at windmills with the COBA rant. COBA clearly has no clout if Brooks Resources, Central Oregon's biggest and most-respected developer, is WAY off script in the Sunday Bulletin right after the kickoff of the "Best Buyers Market in 20 Years" campaign.

If Brooks thinks prices need a 30% haircut, and they're even close to being right (and they have no reason to exaggerate), well, currently any buyer who buys into the COBA crap will get hosed.

Bend Economy Man said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Given the number of unsold houses in Central Oregon and its biggest feeder markets, the leaders of Brooks Resources, the region’s biggest development company, figure that land and home prices may have to work their way back roughly to 2003 levels before the market regains some semblance of supply-and-demand balance, Brooks Resources President Kirk Schueler said. That would bring median home prices in Bend back to the mid-$200,000 range.

The median sales price through 2007 for Bend homes on lots stood at about $349,000, according to the Central Oregon Multiple Listing Service.

“Our prediction — I guess maybe it’s a hope — is that it squares around when we get back around the 2003 area,” Schueler said, “and it varies. Different pockets of town will do better than others.”


Son of a fuckin BITCH!

The median in 2003 was $195,500!

This fucker thinks we're headed under $200K! And that sounds like the high side of his prediction!

SHIT!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

t seems like you might be just tilting at windmills with the COBA rant.

Have I ever done anything else?

What bothers me is NOT the fact that these idiots are mindlessly pursuing & promoting their own selfish best interests. It's that they want to DISTORT REALITY using the sheer numbers of their membership, not to mention the extortion of local media.

Promote you stupid home-buying bullshit all you want COBA, but if you are going to engage in an overt attempt to DISTORT market facts, then you fuckers should go to jail.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

What's just hilarious about this, is that the market here is still RELATIVELY GOOD.

We have ridiculously high prices, and No Volume.

Soon, we'll have ridiculously LOW PRICES, and no volume.

Today, you can STILL actually sell if you're willing to take a pounding on price. Soon, you will not be able to sell AT ANY PRICE.

timothy said...

I don't think COBA is convincing anyone. There are no buyers. Buyers aren't going to magically appear because of a TV ad.

Those ads sound desperate. Anyone with half a brain (or more) should hear that crap and go, "wow--they are desperate." We better wait a while.

And even if they want to buy, the jumbos are hard as hell to get. Did you see what's happening to the homes on acreage section of david foster's chart? It's a killing field.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

the COBA rant....

definition: rant

A post where the terms, "fuckers", "mother fucker", "buttfuckers", "buttfucking mother fuckers", or "you butt fucking mother fuckers can fuck each other in the butt" make up more than 50% of the post verbiage.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And even if they want to buy, the jumbos are hard as hell to get. Did you see what's happening to the homes on acreage section of david foster's chart? It's a killing field.

Shit...

I knew that over-priced million dollar shithole "mini-ranch" crap would get killed the hardest. Some of that stuff is just flat unliveable. Barely habitable by humans. And it's shitty acreage. You could teardwon what's there, and still have a Big Pile Of Shit. Everything else will fall 50%... that crap'll fall 80%.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

\\|//

More people moving in, but at a slower pace


Thanks for that article....

Anonymous said...

Knopp is a long time CO lackey. You know how rats are with shiny stuff.

Those ads are just a last ditch attempt to catch a fool or two.

Game Over, back to politics for Tim.

Anonymous said...

"That would bring median home prices in Bend back to the mid-$200,000 range". - boss hogg hollern bitch

*

Yes, and what has buster been saying since day-one here, income at average is $60k/yr to $40k/yr, and that is average. Some lucky familys that are working gov jobs get the first, and the working poor at walmart or costco working two jobs get the latter.

Bend RE will fall to a comfortable level of between $240k to $160k (4X), my guess is nice inner drake park homes will hold the $240k, all things being equal 1200sq-ft, then the STD's, now those will go down under $160k.

NOTE I hate this fucking 'best in twenty', for anything to be best in twenty, the medians would have to fall to $100k, and that hasn't happened YET.

Anonymous said...

In Vancouver they were using the 'best in twenty year' rant, thus its obviously a national NAR program that COBA bought into.

The fact is PR&Marketing works, the sad part is we the citizenry have to pay.

Given that the BULK of you have been here for less that 5-10 years, if somebody talks shit like "best in 20", most of you are going to go along with the BS.

Let's cut the fucking SHIT, next time somebody says "Best in twenty", just say back "Where are the $100k or less medians", until we see a median less than $100k, its NOT the the best in twenty years. Even $250k is only the best in 4-5 years, and $120k would be the best in 10 years.

Twenty years would take you back to 1988, and things were real bad back then.

Certainly we got two more years of panic.

COBA is just trying to clear what they can while the they can.

timothy said...

Yeah, in this case 20 years is meaningless. They pick 20 because it's shorthand for a generation. It's not too short and not too long. It's like a programmer saying he'll be done in two weeks or a teenager saying they need five more minutes of sleep. It's symbolic. They're just trying to sound authentic.

The usual scare tactics. They are _always_ trying to scare people into buying houses. When houses were going up, they scared you into buying. Prices fall, and again you're supposed to be scared.

You can't TIME the market. And yet, you better buy NOW, because now is the perfect TIME, and later will certainly be a worse TIME, until later actually comes, and !!amazing!! you'll be told it's again the perfect TIME.

Anonymous said...

"Best in Twenty Years", OK BOYZ&GIRLZ I think we're NOW at stage-9.

The following was from spring of 2007, and note then we were only at stage-7.( Tap out 401k's,... we're there now, and now the big boyz are doing the last act of desperation.
ALL BUBBLE's end this way.

****

1. Housing markets increase, slowly at first. Faster in the “Hot Markets” { nuttin hotter than Bend & CALIF }

2. First-time homebuyers get scared, want in, and need low payments. Homeowners want to enjoy newfound equity (upgrade older homes), especially in “Hot Markets” { dubya has just created two generations of renters that will never crawl out of debt, new peonage system created }

3. Lenders oblige by aggressively marketing Interest-Only loans (mostly ARMS) and HELs, and relaxing requirements to obtain such loans. About 50 - 70% of all new loans in “Hot Markets” are IO/ARMS { Until subprime collapse in fall 2006, this got to 90% } In Feb 07, the sub-prime door was shut-closed, and the jumbo door.

4. Potential for huge gains using IO loans attracts new (but naïve) real estate investors (as well as seasoned investors) who use equity in primary home to finance investment propert(ies). This all combines to fuel an unprecedented demand for housing.

5. Interest rates rise, imperceptibly at first, to fight inflation levels, partly caused by rising housing prices.

6. As Interest-Only periods start to end, payments rise as much as 70% (based on only a 2% rise in interest rates) because (1) catch-up principal payments (2) shorter amortization period (20-25 years for remaining loan) and (2) rising interest rates. If rates are still low enough, some borrowers will refinance into another IO loan to avoid the large payments, postponing the inevitable for 5 to 10 years.

7. IO loan borrowers tap out remaining resources (Stock market/banks) to make payments. Stock Markets drop as money flows out to meet the higher payments.

8. Unsophisticated investors are hit with 2 or more rising mortgage payments at the same time, leading to foreclosure/bankruptcy because (1) a double/triple, etc, effect with no increase in income and (2) inexperience in timing market changes and setting sales price, leading them to ride the market down. { This is where we are today, the common man getting hit the hardest. }

9. Sophisticated investors unload property, priced for quick sale. Lenders unload foreclosed properties as quickly as possible to limit their losses. { This what the baby-jeezus may have meant when he told dubya that we're in a grace period. Spring 2007 Bend }

10. Property values start to plummet as properties flood the market. { Summer 2007 Bend }

11. Most IO borrowers cannot refinance, especially if steps 6-10 happen simultaneously because (1) new fixed rates will be higher than ARMs and (2) outstanding loans will exceed property values. { under new bankruptcy laws, folks that lose their homes on this cycle will be renters for the remainder of thier lives, and their children also, look at the great dubya RE scam of 2002-2006 as a retirement plan for conservative Bend developers }

12. Steps 6-10 will repeat over and over, causing ever increasing declines in both the stock and real-estate markets, as (1) houses get harder to unload due to market supply, (2) lenders with a significant IO position go under, (3) money is pulled out of the stock market to mitigate the huge losses and payoff IO loans, and (4) Fannie/Freddie losses are reflected in the market. { During the depression this phase was called 'real estate paralysis' }

13. Record foreclosures/bankruptcies will follow as property values plummet, particularly in the previously “hottest markets” where most of the IO loans originated. { Bend was dependent on California sales, which were ALL IO, and ALL incoming californians to Bend were ALL IO, thus the Bend-CALIF symbiotic-parasites will prove to one of the greatest financial failures in America } In Bend the foreclosures will not be purged until 2011, when the 5/1 Arms from 2006 are finally shut-down, and liquidated.

14. Given the new bankruptcy laws that work more like “reorganizations” than a “fresh start,” thousands will carry this debt and bad credit ratings for decades. Some will never recover. Many, many will never be able to afford a home again with a government bailout. Today, more than ever before, there is no “walking away” from a mortgage. - New State laws on Bankruptcy, and Debtors Prisons, mean that common people will live their lives as slaves in State Run industrial military prisons producing the goods of war.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

You can't TIME the market. And yet, you better buy NOW, because now is the perfect TIME, and later will certainly be a worse TIME, until later actually comes, and !!amazing!! you'll be told it's again the perfect TIME.

PERFECTLY PUT.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I love how it's ALWAYS either a SELLERS MARKET or BUYERS MARKET.

Seems Realtors like to name markets after the half of the population they plan to fleece.

LavaBear said...

A year or so ago I would have spit my beer all over my keyboard at the CORA package of shit. Every part of it is just vile...but at this point in time I pretty much got a good laugh out of it. Whatever fool hears the ads, or is someway influenced by this then I figure they deserve everything they get. They obviously haven't been listening/hearing/thinking/have a brain of their own.

I really want to know the bank that makes the loans for this nonsense, because I'm gonna short that fucker all the way to their BK.

MStucker said...

Well ranted Bilbo.I didn't realize you had such an angry bitch side to you. Best post/rant yet. When it's time to buy shall I let you know? or will you call me?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Best post/rant yet.

What about the Poor Baby Jeebus rant?

When it's time to buy shall I let you know? or will you call me?

Either... I just hope we're both still alive.

Bend Economy Man said...

I think that The Bulletin showed some backbone by publishing some rough facts and deadly quotes right after the COBA campaign began. Kudos to The Bulletin.

Yes, they followed the old Bulletin formula of Misleading Headline That Says Exactly the Opposite of the Facts in the Story / "Happy News" First and Last Paragraphs / Hard-Hitting News in the Middle. But by now I think we've deduced that this is in the Bulletin's editorial standards manual.

Bend Economy Man said...

Paul, looks like BB2 got removed from Bendblogs.com.

Anonymous said...

"What about the Poor Baby Jeebus rant?"

Smite me... That had me crying and pissing myself I laughed so hard.

You do know that YUN and NAR have given this PR "package" to all of their members across the country. It's a national blitz. COBA and CORA weren't smart or dumb enough to come up with this crap on a local level.
I am out of state and have seen the same ads/press releases here, but with the local "brand" on it.

SMITE them all.

But bless bilbo, and Jeebus, please help him with his anger.
Please take away all things that anger bilbo.
And Jeebus, please let the median home price hit 200k soon.
And Jeebus, please, if any COBA members have empty houses, let the homeless, foreclosed on, folks live in them for a while before the City tears them down.

Anonymous said...

9. Sophisticated investors unload property, priced for quick sale. Lenders unload foreclosed properties as quickly as possible to limit their losses. { This what the baby-jeebus may have meant when he told dumbya that we're in a grace period. }

*

Can we really call 'COBA' sophisticated? Certainly the those with the biggest inventory, its in their interest to DUMP today for 50 cents on the dollar, rather than next year for 20 cents on the dollar.

*

The "Best deal in Twenty Years" should be called, sophisticates make one last charge. Much like our King Dumbya's SURGE, better to make one last great stand, and postpone. If you can get through 2008, the theory is first year term of next prez-cycle is going to really prime the pump.

*

This same 20-year best time to buy campaign is also being ran up in Vancouver, so its obviously a national NAR campaign, that was boiler-plated by COBA.

These terminal PR/Marketing campaigns have got to be great for the BULL.

Anonymous said...

Hey you guys I am working the kinks out of my solar powered ice cream truck/snowblower. Any idea on where in Bend I can set up shop and hire me some of them thar low wage locals?

timothy said...

A great time to buy?

http://tinyurl.com/39ko4v

bruce said...

Re: Paul, looks like BB2 got removed from Bendblogs.com.

Looks like the latest rant showed up there this morning.

May be one of the most fuckridden rants I have ever read...

You know, you would think realtors would be smart enough to want repeat business, as happy old customers are the cheapest to service. But then again, I guess we have to realize just who we are dealing with....

Anonymous said...

Note, on the national level this campaign dates back to August 2007.

In January 2007, NAR will take this message to the airwaves with television and radio commercialhttp://www.realtor.org/home_buyers_and_sellers/buy_now_ad.html


Newspaper Ad Says It's a Great Time to Buy

November 2007

NAR's "Buy Now" advertisement, which appeared November 3-5 in the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Chicago Tribune, USA Today, and Los Angeles Times, has received rave reviews from members and the media. Read more about the ad campaign's positive coverage quoting NAR and its president, Tom Stevens.

The ad reminds consumers that the time is right to buy now, for several reasons:

o Interest rates are low
o A good inventory of homes is available
o Prices have stabilized and are starting to rise
o The future of the housing market and the economy is positive
o Housing is a great investment, with average home valuations increasing 88 percent in the last 10 years

The ad closes with a call to action to contact your REALTOR® or visit REALTOR.com.

NAR is publicizing this message to the press through news release, media outreach, and selected television interviews.

Stay tuned for the next ad, which will appear the weekend of November 10-12 in the same newspapers.

In January 2007, NAR will take this message to the airwaves with television and radio commercials.

More Actions You Can Take



Download a full-size version of the first newspaper ad (PDF, 650k) to display on your office wall or include in promotional packets for potential buyers.

Learn the points to make with customers who are hesitating about buying now.

Download a fact sheet (PDF, 100k) with more information.

State and local associations, you can download a version of the ad with space for your name. Download this file (*.zip, 995 KB) and send it, along with your association's name, phone, and Web site, to the publication that will run the ad. Your association's information will appear in the lower right corner of the ad. THIS AD CANNOT BE MODIFIED IN ANY OTHER WAY.



space For more information space
Read NAR's News Release (Nov. 3, 2006)
Talking Points for NAR's "Buy Now" Campaign
"Buy Now" Fact Sheet (PDF, 100k)
Downloadable Ad (PDF, 650k)

Last Published Aug 9, 2007

Anonymous said...

NAR say's BUY NOW

NAR campaign to hit National TV&RADIO in Jan-08, Feb-08 Central Oregon does their part.

Anonymous said...

Analyzing why "It's a great time to buy or sell a home!"
Saturday, November 04, 2007

Its_a_great_time_2 Yesterday, we discussed the $40M NAR ad campaign, "It's a great time to buy or sell a home!"

On the way home, I actually saw the full page ad in the Personal section of the WSJ; (Unfortunately for the NAR, the section's front page article was "The New Word in Home Sales: 'Canceled')

I read the ad as a typical consumer would . . . then I reread the ad critically.

When I was finished, it occured to me that EVERY SINGLE STATEMENT IN THE AD IS MATERIALLY FALSE OR MISLEADING. The nicest thing I can say about any of the points is that they are incomplete.

To wit:


NAR Advertising Claim Reality
Interest Rates Near Record Lows
Today’s interest rates are comparable to 40-year lows, offering homebuyers a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. Interest Rates WERE at record lows in 2003 when the Fed Funds Rate was 1%; Since then, rates have climbed 425 basis points (4.25%); Mortgages were as lows as 5.125%; They recently were over 7%.
Large Inventory Won’t Last
There are currently 3.75 million homes for sale. We have had a record inventory of homes on the market in recent months, offering consumers the greatest choice in decades. Slowing Sales and Overbuilding are the reasons for the inventory buildup; Year-to-date sales are down 16.5%.

Economics 101 tells us that increased supply means decreased prices.

Large selection also means selling your current home has become more difficult;
Prices Overall Have Stabilized
Contracts for home sales in August are up 4.3 percent1 and the outlook is for home prices to increase next year. Home prices have experienced their first price drop in a decade;

As unit sales continue to slump, the Median Price Keeps Falling;

This is no basis for assuming any price stabilization has occured.
Positive Outlook
Former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan recently said that housing prospects are looking up. “Most of the negatives in housing are probably behind us. The fourth quarter should be reasonably good, certainly better than the third quarter.” According to industry estimates, 2006 will be the third-best year on record for home sales. Is this the same former Fed Chief Greenspan who advised getting variable APRs at the precise low in interest rates?

As to the "record sales," its more informative to look at the current trends, rather than the raw numbers (population growth will create meaningless "record numbers").
Real Estate is a Great Investment
Homeownership is a safe, secure way to build long-term wealth. The national median price of homes bought ten years ago has increased 88 percent. The number of US households is expected to increase 15 percent during the next decade, creating a continued high demand for housing. Actually, it performs about half as well as stocks do over the long run.

Up 88% over the past 10 years is far above the historical norm -- mean reversion is very likely.

(But you gotta live somewhere, right?)
Don’t Delay
Now is a great time to buy or sell a home. If you delay, you run the risk of paying less for a new home.

In all my experience trading, I cannot recall ever coming across any item that it was a great time to buy and sell something simulataneously.

Perhaps the NAR is a fully hedged Long/Short fund . . .

>

Gee, no wonder so many real estate agents have a sketchy reputation; The bullshit is a professional hazard, from their Professional Association on down . . .

Anonymous said...

In all my experience trading, I cannot recall ever coming across any item that it was a great time to buy and sell something simultaneously.

Perhaps the NAR is a fully hedged Long/Short fund . . .

Anonymous said...

Here is a list of all the best-selling real-estate authors I can think of and their financial lowlights.

Best-selling Author Book Title Financial Lowlights

William Nickerson How I Turned $1,000 into $5 Million in Real Estate in My Spare Time
Got richer until death in 2000
Albert Lowry How to Become Financially Independent by Investing in Real Estate
Declared Chapter 7 bankruptcy in June of 1987
Bill “Tycoon” Greene Two Years for Freedom
Indicted on 1/13/81 for federal income-tax evasion. In 8/81, he was convicted, sentenced to prison and fined. He later escaped from the minimum security prison and is now apparently living in England under the name Dr. William G. Hill.
Howard Ruff How to Prosper During the Coming Bad Years
Bankrupt
Craig Hall Craig Hall’s Book of Real Estate Investing
Sued by the Resolution Trust Corporation for various wrongdoings, filed bankruptcy in April of 1992
Tony Hoffman How to Negoatiate Successfully in Real Estate
Hoffman’s company, National Superstar, Inc. declared Chapter 11 bankruptcy on 10/3/86
Wade B. Cook How to Build a Real Estate Money Machine
Declared Chapter 7 bankruptcy on 6/17/87; 10/00, corporations agrees to refund millions
4/03, bankrupt—again; 12/05 Wade Cook indictment for tax fraud teaches lessons about investment advice, asset protection (article about his indictments for tax evasion); 2/20/07 convicted by a federal jury in Seattle of seven counts of tax evasion, filing false returns, and obstructing the IRS See my guru-rating page for details.
Dave Glubetich The Monopoly Game
Declared Chapter 7 bankruptcy on 6/26/87
Dave Del Dotto Cash Flow System
Charged by the Federal Trade Commission with misrepresenting products on 4/22/93, lost headquarters building to foreclosure on 5/6/93, subject of federal tax lien for $240,406.38 in unpaid taxes, sued by State of Washington, IRS placed a lien on his home in 1993, agreed to pay $200,000 fine to the FTC, filed for Chapter 7 bankruptcy in 1995
Charles Givens Wealth Without Risk
Successfully sued for giving bad financial advice by a former customer, ordered to pay $377,000 in refunds by Florida attorney general, his company International Administrative Services, Inc. declared bankruptcy in August of 1996, died pending trial
Sonny Bloch Inside Real Estate
Indicted on 5/26/95 by federal gand jury for fraud, fled to Domican Republic to avoid prosecution, deported to U.S., died 3/10/98 pending trial
Ed Beckley Million Dollar Secrets
Declared bankruptcy on 3/22/87, sentenced to federal prison for wire fraud
Robert Allen Nothing Down, Creating Wealth, The Challenge
$412,045.65 in IRS liens filed against him on 6/16/86, $76,000 warrant for delinquent tax liens filed by State of Utah in 1986, sued by fellow gurus who spoke at his conferences for $117,000 in compensation, declared Chapter 7 bankruptcy in May of 1996
Mark O. Haroldsen How to Awaken the Financial Genius Within You
Charged with 83 counts of deceptive sales practices by the State of Utah in May of 1997. Apparently prevailed in another case versus FTC (http://www.ftc.gov/ogc/status/injunct2.htm)
Robert Kiyosaki Rich Dad, Poor Dad
Claims he was bankrupt and homeless in 1985 although federal court records say no one named Kiyosaki ever declared bankruptcy. Also claims he refused to return to his ship when he was a Marine during the Vietnam war but his military records show no such incident.

In spite of this appalling track record, I get weekly emails accusing me of being jealous of the fact that Robert Kiyosaki is a best-selling real-estate author. Apparently the public grossly overestimates the meaning of best-seller status. A “best-seller” is a book that sells to a lot of laymen. A better judge of quality is how popular a book is with experts in the field.

Why did almost all the best-selling real-estate authors get into trouble? Simple: the way you get to be a best-selling author in the get-rich category is to lie. It’s like politics. The biggest liar wins. As in politics, the author who promises the most for the least effort wins.

William Nickerson told the truth—but he did that back in 1959. His book, which is excellent, says to save money, put 25% down on rental property, renovate it, and exchange up to a bigger one and repeat the process. How many books do you think he’d sell today—competing with authors who say saving and renovating are unnecessary? Al Lowry’s first book, How To Become Financially Independent by Investing in Real Estate, was also excellent. In fact, it was a restatement of Nickerson’s book. The two were partners at the time. Lowry’s book was a best seller in 1977.

Then came Robert Allen’s Nothing Down in 1980. He blew Lowry and Nickerson away. Lowry and Nickerson subsequently sort of imitated Allen trying to compete with him and started putting out lousy stuff. People would rather hear that you can get rich for nothing down and no work than 25% down and renovation. Ever since then, would-be best selling authors have had to tell bigger and bigger lies to achieve best-seller status. It’s a sort of “That’s nothing! Wait til you read my book!” series of one-upsmanship ploys.

Here is an email I got. I think it epitomizes the sort of person who the best-selling real-estate authors appeal to.

“youre [sic] a dream stealer , quit giving your stupid opinions on things you know nothing about . millions of dollars of real estate is bought and sold all the time using methods you say dont work. you just want people to think youre [sic] some kind of expert youre [sic] not.” derring595@aol.com

If you want to be a best-selling author, tell people their wildest financial dreams can come true, with virtually no effort or risk. Another email I got was more perceptive. He called what the get-rich-quick authors do, “blowing sunshine up my a--.”

To an extent, a best-selling book is a product of mob psychology. Charles Mackay wrote a book called Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds about various financial disasters caused by mob psychology.

Here’s an inside tip about the book business. The list that is most respected is the back list, not the best-seller list. The back list is the list of books that sell year in and year out for decades. Leigh Robinson’s Landlording is an example. So is Les Scher’s excellent Finding and Buying Your Place in the Country.
Not eligible

Some have accused me of being jealous of best-selling authors because I am not one. I am not eligible. To be a best-selling author, you have to sell your books through book stores, which I no longer do. The last time I sent a real estate book to my old book-store distributor was March, 1998.

Even during the twenty years when I did sell my books through book stores, I still could not have had a best seller. Here is how the conversation might have gone with my distributor if the sales of one of my books took off.

Distributor: “Jack! Great news! We have 50,000 orders for your tax book!”

Reed: “Well, that’s nice, but I have some bad news in response. I don’t have 50,000 copies of that book. I only printed 5,000.”

Distributor: “So print more.”

Reed: “Easy for you to say. You don’t have to pay the printing bill—which is due within 30 days of the books coming off the press. 50,000 copies of that book would cost about $125,000 to print. I don’t have that kind of money lying around. My credit limit with book manufacturers is around $20,000, because that’s all I’ve ever needed. I doubt they would up my limit to $125,000 and I would not be able to pay the bill if they did. I would have to put a second mortgage on my house to print 50,000 books.”

Distributor: “Whatever. You’ve got a best seller. You need to do it.”

Reed: “Will you buy the books on a no-returns basis or are you going to insist on your usual 100%-return-privilege deal?”

Distributor: “We never ever buy on a no-returns basis.”

Reed: “That’s what I thought. Fine. I’ll print 10,000.”

Distributor: “10,000! But what will we tell the book stores who placed the other 40,000 orders?”

Reed: “Tell them that I will be glad to sell them to them if they will buy on a no-returns basis.”

Distributor: “They’ll never agree to that either.”

Reed: “I know. But we both know that there comes a time when a best seller stops selling and huge quantities of the book come flying back through the pipeline at the publisher, namely me, for full refunds. If there were some predictability to it, I would consider it. But it’s a total crap shoot. I don’t bet my home on a crap shoot. I’ll call some major publishers and see if one of them will print the 50,000 and take the risk of the returns, but I suspect the terms they will insist on—like owning the rights to the book forever—will be unacceptable to me.”

Distributor: “So what are we going to do with all these extra orders?”

Reed: “Not my problem. I am not in the best-seller business. I’m a back-list guy. Tell them to take a number.”

I attended a convention of small publishers once. One stood up and told about their best seller. The story was that they always hoped for one, but when they finally had it, it was a nightmare of scrambling for cash to pay for printing, then getting hit by massive returns when the book stopped selling. They swore they would never fill all orders for a best seller again. Rather they would, for an appropriate fee, release the author to take the book to a bigger publishing house.

When I was at Harvard Business School, I attended a talk by Akio Morita, the founder of Sony. He said he produced transistor radios in the sixties. He came to America to try to sell them. One company said something like, “OK. We’ll buy three million. What’s your price?” Morita, who had previously quoted a price of, say, $2 each for a 100,000 quantity, did some calculations and said, “$8 each.”

The Americans smiled indulgently and said, “You don’t understand. The bigger the quantity we order, the lower the price per unit we should get.” Morita responded equally indulgently, “No, you don’t understand. My current factory can only produce one million radios a year. To produce the three million to fill your order, I will have to build a second factory. Since I have no other such order, I will have to pay for the entire factory from what you pay me for this order. When I divide the cost of the new factory and workers by the size of your order, I get $8 per radio.”

Now that’s a smart man. And he was not even in a business where the retailers have the right to return every item for a full refund if it does not sell like the book business. It was that sort of risk control that made him successful. I would have followed his example if I ever had a best-selling book.

bruce said...

For your enjoyment, a rant by the late HST that is truer than ever in this world where John "We've been in Korea for 50 years, why can't we stay in Iraq that long, too?" McCain is taken as a serious presidential candidate by the corporate media:

We have become a Nazi monster in the eyes of the whole world-a nation of bullies and bastards who would rather kill than live peacefully. We are not just Whores for power and oil, but killer whores with hate and fear in our hearts. We are human scum, and that is how history will judge us... No redeeming social value. Just whores. Get out of our way, or we'll kill you. Well, shit on that dumbness. George W. Bush does not speak for me or my son or my mother or my friends or the people I respect in this world. We didn't vote for these cheap, greedy little killers who speak for America today- and we will not vote for them again in 2002. Or 2004. Or ever. Who does vote for these dishonest shitheads? Who among us can be happy and proud of having all this innocent blood on our hands? Who are these swine? These flag-sucking half-wits who get fleeced and fooled by stupid little rich kids like George Bush? They are the same ones who wanted to have Muhammad Ali locked up for refusing to kill "gooks". They speak for all that is cruel and stupid and vicious in the American character. They are racists and hate mongers among us-they are the Ku Klux Klan. I piss down the throats of these Nazis. And I am too old to worry about whether they like it or not. Fuck them.

--Hunter S. Thompson 1939 - 2005

The same fuckers who brought you oh-so-easy credit and a never get-out-of-debt bankruptcy...our country will never be the same, let alone our little city on the high desert.

It's kind of funny, in a sad way. Kind of like the city trying to cover it's ass on past Exec Sessions. I picked up a copy of a supposed "Notice of Executive Session of the Bend City Council" last week, for that pretty much unreported session on Jan. 23, 2007 where Clinton and Capell were designated as negotiators to Juniper Ridge Partners. Prior to asking for the notice I went through the microfilm of the Bulletin for the week prior and failed to find any published notice, nor any story at all on it.

So I was curious to see what I would get when I asked for the notice, specifically as an attachment to the email that was used to send it to the media. I've learned that if notice is questionable you won't get that email with a date and time unless you ask for it. And sometimes not even then, as in this latest case.

So I have a copy an a Notice, sans e-mail dating its distribution, and I realize it very specifically states "The Executive Session will be conducted pursuant to ORS 192.660(2)(e) to discuss Real Estate Matters."

Which is as close to a good notice as I have ever seen the City do. Looks like my efforts are getting them to cover their ass, at least in regards to past "documents".

You know, I wonder what the penalty is for forging official documents? I'll have to look that up one of these days.

It's all kind of funny, in a sad way.

bruce said...

More from John Reed:

"Some strategies, like buying foreclosures, require huge amounts of cash. Others, like buying judgments secured by real estate or buying at builder auctions, require little or no cash. In general, cash makes your investment life much easier. Too often, the use of cash is dismissed as non-macho or some such. That's nonsense. But if you absolutely have no cash, you must either get some or use strategies which do not require any. The grandaddy of all real estate gurus, William Nickerson, wrote the book How I Turned $1,000 into $5,000,000 in Real Estate in My Spare Time and How to Make a Fortune Today Starting From Scratch. In those books, he talks a great deal about ways to save the money you need for a down payment. The concept of saving must seem downright quaint to graduates of today's real estate gurus' seminars and boot camps. They all preach the "something for nothing down" approach. I prefer the save-up-the-down-payment approach. The book The Millionaire Next Door says that real millionaires are big savers. Real estate gurus, most of whom are phony millionaires, either ignore saving or dismiss it as impossible. Saving? Is that something grandma and grandpa did?

Duncan McGeary said...

John Reed. Great stuff.

You can say pretty much the same thing about business and business books.

Building a business slowly, paying as you go, is a quaint notion.

timothy said...

>>Building a business slowly, paying as you go, is a quaint notion.

It depends on the kind of business you want to build.

If you want to build a livelihood company (your business), then you do it carefully and thoughtfully. Defensively.

If you want to change a world, that's just not an option. For instance, Amazon.com. That company could not have been built without debt and aggression. It now makes a profit, and arguably has changed the world. It employs a lot more people than you employ, Duncan.

There should be books about building both kinds of businesses. But I'd understand why books about big gambles would make it up higher on the sales charts.

Which kind of business has the best chance of survival? I'm not sure. I think most businesses fail, at any scale. However, grand failures are usually more fun to read about.

Duncan McGeary said...

"However, grand failures are usually more fun to read about."

Not to live through, I suspect.

Anyway, we always read about the biggest success because defacto there has to be a biggest success.(Whoever survives....)

I think in fact, that stores like mine employ way more people than Amazon....

Duncan McGeary said...

Looked it up. "Small Business" accounts for 41% of all employment. Take government jobs out of that, and we are at least equal.

I read a study once, about why we lionize the biggest surviver. The point being, there had to be the biggest survivor. This guy made a pretty good case that it was as much luck and happenstance as genius. Because statistically, starting from the same spot, someone was going to end up being the biggest.

It was a lot like chaos theory. Having an extra truck with a few extra miles per gallon, finding a super office manager early on, getting a couple percentage points extra margin because you stumbled across a new manufacturer first.

That kind of thing.

But isn't the whole point of the millionaire next door idea is that modest but strongly built foundations, and steady progress succeed better than gambling everything on the BIG IDEA?

bruce said...

Re: Which kind of business has the best chance of survival? I'm not sure. I think most businesses fail, at any scale. However, grand failures are usually more fun to read about.

Failure has to be defined as well. Most people would say Polaroid has failed, yet its brand continues. Its the product that was so long equated with that brand that has failed.

Also, some cultures/areas, such as Silicon Valley, figure failure is part of the game, and that as long as you learn from it there is no ignominy in failing.\

Speaking of failures, did you hear about the huge mess in England over Northern Rock Bank? Methinks we haven't even seen the toe of the other shoe falling yet in regards to SIV's. It could get really ugly as all those ARMs reset in the next few years and so many AAA-rated issues are shown to be utterly worthless. Unfortunately, it's not going to come in one big hit that can be written off and forgotten.

bruce said...

Re: This guy made a pretty good case that it was as much luck and happenstance as genius.

See Digital Research, Microsoft and the IBM PC. The one-time leader of a then tiny market was off flying his plane when IBM execs visited, while Gates, who didn't even have a product to sell them, quickly bought one for $50,000 (a lot of money for them at the time) and MS DOS became the de facto operating system for every PC and clone based on the IBM PC. Of course, Gate's business methods and licensing agreements were rather "aggressive" but without that original IBM contract and the huge ongoing cash cow that followed MS may have never grown to the giant it is today.

The story, along with some debunking and questioning of events, is here: http://www.mackido.com/History/IBMs_choice.html

timothy said...

>>But isn't the whole point of the millionaire next door idea is that modest but strongly built foundations, and steady progress succeed better than gambling everything on the BIG IDEA?

I think Nassim Taleb has refuted The Millionaire Next Door convincingly enough that I don't need to attempt to do it.

I'm all for small business. But Amazon lets me discover and get books I really enjoy. I was never satisfied with the books I found in bookstores (save Powell's, of course).

bruce said...

Re: But Amazon lets me discover and get books I really enjoy.

The only reason I continue my Netflix subscription--a huge choice of stuff I would never find anywhere else.

Anonymous said...

Dropping Shoes ( Kustler on the BIG FUCK coming to USA )

The fall of Britain's Northern Rock bank may be the first dropped shoe in a chorus line of big banks tap-dancing into oblivion. The British government's move yesterday to nationalize the insolvent mortgage lender's remaining operations leaves shareholders holding an empty bag. Their only resort now will be to call their lawyers. What we may be witnessing, in a movement that will surely spread to the US, is a changing of the guard at the top of the financial food-chain between bankers and lawyers.
Shoes may have begun to drop in the US last week with Citigroup halting redemptions for its $500-million CSO mini hedge fund -- half a billion dollars being something less than walking-around-money in the Hamptons these days. Halting redemptions means that investors in the fund cannot withdraw their money -- the same as going to the bank and being told your account is frozen. Hedge funds can play rough with their investors because they are unregulated. The reason they remain unregulated is the presumption that anybody rich enough to "play" in a hedge fund can afford to lose (or be swindled) with no protection on the sidelines from government busybodies. What's more, the hedge fund managers do not have to make any of their operations open to public view, so that neither the investors nor any regulating authority knows what they are actually doing.
What the big banks who run many hedge funds are doing is going broke. They are pretending to be solvent by borrowing money from the Federal Reserve, the nation's alleged superbank. But borrowed money is not capital, i.e. surplus wealth wholly owned. Borrowed money is an obligation, a liability, a negative on the balance sheet. You can't have an entire financial system based on nothing more than a giant daisy-chain of liabilities. Somewhere there has to be a "reserve" of assets, items of value owned by somebody.
Through most of modern times, assets have been denoted by cash money. A given bank will hold in "reserve" say $10 billion in money that is not owed to anybody, allowing them to do things like pay depositors who show up at the window needing money for groceries. Up until a few decades ago, nations held an ultimate reserve of actual gold in a vault (Fort Knox, Kentucky, in the case of the USA) and the physical possession of this gold was said to "back up" the value of the certificates that circulated as a "medium-of-exchange" or currency.
But that system was considered too awkward and "reserves" were then denoted in just currencies themselves, or certificates that represented the existence of currencies held elsewhere, or pixels on a screen representing the movement of alleged piles of currency from one place to another, or the intention to move a notional pile of currency to a theoretical destination, and then that became an algorithm purporting to represent the future arrival of a notional pile of money at theoretical destination to-be-named-later, and so on.... And after another while, the nature of money became so detached from anything real, so abstract, that its very existence became hypothetical. Even this "worked" for a while, in terms of the managers of this money being able to "cream" substantial amounts of this hypothetical money off the top of their notional operations and translate that hypothetical cream into Tribeca lofts, Gulfstream jets, and other real luxuries.
The rest of the economic food chain -- and the social order that represented it -- got stripped of remaining asset value (and social value) until they had nothing left to trade with except debt, in one form or another, and this phase of the game turned out to have a short lifetime when the the only debts remaining to be monetized were the contracts on houses occupied by people with no hope of ever meeting their obligations -- and then the whole sorry racket started to go up in a vapor.
This is roughly where we are, and where the banks stand today. They are pretending to have money and desperately cadging loans from all comers to keep appearances up, but the loans can't come in fast enough. The appearance of confidence is crucial (as it is, of course, in any "con" game) to keep the investors (depositors) at bay. If a bunch of investors (depositors) all got nervous about the solvency of a given bank, they might try to slip in there during business hours and withdraw or redeem their "money" and perhaps translate it into items of value like gold coins, bottles of vodka, or cases of 9 millimeter pistol ammunition. And if enough of this bunch showed up at the same time, we would see a phenomenon called a "run" on a bank. And after that started at one bank, the thing Franklin Roosevelt called "fear itself" could easily spread to depositors in other banks pretending to be okay... and that would be the magic moment that the USA discovered it was no longer a rich nation.
That would be a very rude awakening. The whole world would know about it in about thirty seconds, and the rest of the world would be in a lot of trouble, too, since so much of its notional wealth is represented by piles of US dollars (or certificates denoting them). Then what you could see is a run by other nations (investor-depositors) on the United States of America as a whole, or an awkward global receivership process, in which all remaining assets were stripped -- including maybe even some of those Tribeca lofts and Gulfstream jets.
Of course, the rest of the world would have a hard time getting any of this stuff out, or fencing it off at a discount. Rather, they'd probably just eat their losses and quarantine themselves off from the world's new financial-and-economic leper. They'd stop sending us Toyota Highlanders, plastic salad shooters, and, oh yes, oil. We'd be left with a lot of empty big box stores, vacant highways, and houses inconveniently deployed too far from any place of utility. One thing we'd have plenty of, though, is home-grown pissed-off people. Some of them may even be lawyers.

bruce said...

Re: "...and that would be the magic moment that the USA discovered it was no longer a rich nation."

I imagine there are some very powerful people worrying about this very thing.

And many even more powerful that figure this is already a fait accompli and have moved most of their holding to non-dollar accounts.

Meanwhile, the American middle class dream continues to be turned into a pile of ashes.

bruce said...

The real problem with failing banks it that they are the root source of liquidity. From "Modern Money Mechanics":

Then, bankers discovered that they could make loans merely by giving their promises to pay, or bank notes, to borrowers. In this way, banks began to create money.
More notes could be issued than the gold and coin on hand because only a portion of the notes outstanding would be presented for payment at any one time. Enough metallic money had to be kept on hand, of course, to redeem whatever volume of notes was presented for payment.

Transaction deposits are the modem counterpart of bank notes. It was a small step from printing notes to making book entries crediting deposits of borrowers, which the borrowers in turn could "spend" by writing checks, thereby "printing" their own money.


Which is the essence of our economy--loans being credited to accounts, creating money that can then be spent.

Without banks, there is very little liquidity.

Somewhere in this mess is real opportunity. Maybe Buffet with his loan guaranty move is close to figuring it out.

Duncan McGeary said...

"think Nassim Taleb has refuted The Millionaire Next Door convincingly enough that I don't need to attempt to do it."

Really? I would've thought the opposite.

Interesting that you can only find something to read on Amazon and Powells.

I've never been in a bookstore, down to the smallest, yet I couldn't find something I wanted to read.

Time is what I run out of.

bruce said...

Re: I've never been in a bookstore, down to the smallest, yet I couldn't find something I wanted to read.

Oh so true.

What the huge online selection offers is access to something you know about but can't find locally.

Which is why you should have your incredible inventory online, at full price plus shipping.

bruce said...

BTW, I'm not that clear on how Taleb's "Black Swan" theory debunks the "Millionaire Next Door" thesis of frugality and saving.

Explanation, please?

Anonymous said...

Blogger bruce said...

The real problem with failing banks it that they are the root source of liquidity. From "Modern Money Mechanics":

*|

BRUCE PUSSY old story dating to 1920's and earlier, read the two volume set by Oswald Sprengler, or have DUNC read it to you as a bed time story.

ALL FUCKING mercantile societies going back 2,000 years end this way , always have, always will.

The mercantilist always make their paper money worthless, always have always will.

Anonymous said...

Slimey CUNTS the Oswald Sprengler two volume set's can be found on amazon-dot-cunt.

The set is called "Decline of the West", written in the 1920's, and more true than ever.

Anonymous said...

Hey you guys I am working the kinks out of my solar powered ice cream truck/snowblower. Any idea on where in Bend I can set up shop and hire me some of them thar low wage locals?

*

Back about 3-4 years ago at the D&D there used to be a guy who gave $1 hand-jobs at the bar, and the full monty in the head.

He called himself bruce.

He said he had a snow-blower, which was some kind of contraption to get you off in the summer. Nobody ever saw it, but this is Bend.

I think then as now, its the D&D, just sit at the bar, and tell folks that your avail for a snow-blow.

In Bend, they will CUM.

Anonymous said...

"Millionaire Next Door" thesis of frugality and saving.

*

Life is short, but what the fuck does the black-swan theory have to do with saving&planning.

The black-swan, is NO different than the baby-jeebus SECOND-CUMMING.

Why bother to work at all, knowing the baby-jeebus is cumming to Bend to suck off all over forever in eternity.

The fact is its all a lottery game, you could all just as well die tomorrow by an asteroid, or a black-swan, or perhaps the baby-jeebus cums,...

Then on the other hand if you plan and save, then you really can retire by the time your 40, and never worry about money.

Failure is the path, so why bother, baby-jeebus is cumming to rescue all.

Lets not bother to save, or plan, lets not even bother to get out of bed in the AM, cuz the baby-jeebus is cumming to suck off all in heaven.

On the other hand the "Millionaire Next Door", makes it quite clear, that real wealth is NOT ostentatious, nor ignoramus, nor religiously hypo-critic.

Then again, 98% all end up a paupers, so fucking what, spend all your money, and pray for the second cumming, and that the baby-jeebus, rescues you from your hell.

Anonymous said...

Taleb's "Black Swan" theory

*

I'm sure that 'bruce' lightly weighs on my side, on such conclusion.

What the fuck does a singularity of have to do with the common average.

If one simply shows up, and doesn't do STUPID fucking shit with they're money they'll beat 98% of the mass of men, every fucking day of the week.

The premise today goes back to Reed's analysis on RE books dating to the 1950's, originally they were teh truth work hard, save, and show up, and you'll become 'rich'.

Certainly, the VAST proportion of men ( & women msfucker ) will conclude the reason they're paupers in 20+ years is the hand of fate fucked them in the 2002+ BEND RE BOOM-BUBBLE. The fact is anyone that used they're fucking brain could have won.

In summary, some could even call our current demise of BEND RE a black-swan, but their ARE NO FUCKING surprises. Taleb gives 911 as a example of a classic fucking 'black swan', jeebus fucking shit, we have been fucking the Arabs for their oil for 50+ years, like they were going to suffer amnesia.

No slimey-cunts, there are NO blacks swans.

ONLY lazy fucking cunt renters that feel sorry for themselves.

Anonymous said...

msFucker, an RE rant education, is NOT really complete, without the whole Hobbit Story of Shire-Bend.

***

A Hobbits Tale of Bend, or How I Learned to Love Californians

A Cascadian Hobbits Tale of Bend

This article is largely concerned with Central Oregonians, or Hobbits as we call them in Cascadia.

In the old times there were three kinds of Sapiens that roamed the old earth, Hobbits in Cascadia, Goblins in Mordor { south and east of cascadia }, and Man { sometimes called people } in the old Arab world to the east, and the Asean world to the far-west, both across great oceans. Long ago man ruled the old earth, but he nearly became extinct and thus forgotten until the great oil wars. During the great oil wars the arab men and women of the east were completely wiped out by great diseases created by the Nazgul of Mordor. The people of the far-west { aseans } survived as they did not physically partake of oil wars, only financed them, thus in time they held most of man's paper money which of course was ultimately without value.

Concerning Cascadian-Hobbits, they're gentle creatures more concerned with the earth, .e.g. hiking, biking, generally being outdoors, and near things green that grow from the earth. They love children, micro-brew, and southern-cascadia grown pipe-weed. The simple things in life, they're despised by the Goblins in California/Mordor. The cascadian hobbits love to be outdoors. The goblins love prisons, their homes are like prisons, they build schools like prison's. The prison and killing industry was the basis for their economy.

The goblins south of cascadia they call themselves Californians { Mordorians } are only concerned with themselves, money, and their car- keys. They prefer metal or plastic, and live only for accumulation. They hate the natural earth and crave to cover it all with concrete and/or asphalt. The Mordorian's have completely covered their own native lands with asphalt and such, and they seem only happy when doing so in new lands.

Middle Earth, or should I say cascadia is now past its third age. The dark lord Sauron { Cauron in cascadia } of Mordor long ago forged the one car-key to rule them all, today californians all consider their car keys their 'precious', as the evil of long ago once worshipped the ring of power.

Mordor ( california ) has once again awoken, the californians have erected an Issengard right in Bend Oregon calling it "Franklin Crossings". The hobbits of bend didn't seem to notice change, until the sun was blocked by this new Issengard. This alerted the hobbits of bend, the Bend council long taken over by Goblins, Orcs, and Gollum like creatures spoke of more Issengards in Bend, and of great Mordorian subdivisions in the north called "Juniper Ridge". It is said that the Bilbo of Hobbiton was the first to notice the Issengard {Franklin-Crossing} monument from the Kanes of St. Francis while having a pint, at first it was thought that he had one too many, but in time others saw, and found that he was correct. The cascadian shire of Bend had forever changed.

The Nazgul or in Cascadia we call them the "Mercedes Driving Goblins" are trying to re-unite all the car-keys, they believe in the One Car-Key to rule them all of the old legend. The Mercedes has always been the greatest phallic icon to wealthy Goblins since the darkest times of the third age. When a hobbit see's a mercedes with mordorian plates they are taught as children to run seek shelter. The old legend speaks of Sauron not a goblin or man, but a spirit that oversaw the oil burning machines and all the business associated with its financial system.

To the old people there was the Farthings, there was west, middle, and east, the Hobbit people of Eugene were most west, and the desert dwelling of Hobbits in Bend were the most east. In the second generation after the great war goblins from the south or mordor, e.g. California came to plunder the land. Over the years the word got back to mordor that hobbits in Bend were weak creatures, that could easily be confined to small lots in mordor type subdivisions.

By the third generation, before our times the goblins had taken over Bend { desert cascadia }, and many hobbits you would not recognized they became like the gollum of the old legend. Legend says that Hobbits that adopt Californian and/or Mordorian habits become vile and ugly creatures.

Today the sun shines over hobbit Shire-Bend and many cascadian hobbits see a chance to take the one car-key that rules them all back to california-mordor. In this age it has been become more difficult for those that built Issengard { franklin-crossings }, as the the banks that funded these ventures were they themselves houses of sand. Once all around Issengard was destroyed, the young Goblins of California no longer came to cascadia for there was no hobbit blood to draw, as they're elder's had sucked the land dry. For generations the goblins descended on cascadia like locust in search of gold, oil, and trees, eventually there was nothing left so they moved on.

To the far east across the great ocean's in the east the gobllin's of mordor had turned their attention to pillaging the great arab lands of the old earth the land of man, where the ancient ones are of said to have invented algebra & Law. For long the the goblins of Mordor thought their car-keys were the source of power but they learned in the times that oil, was the source of power, so they destroyed the old world of the Far-East. They killed and killed for generations, in time, the children returning killed thier own, for this is all they knew of life. The returning goblins of the great oil wars killed their own family's upon returning to Mordor. In the end of their times they resorted to eating one another where the strong orc's ate the goblins, and nazgul ate the orc's.

The goblins of Mordor had become sicker and sicker by this third generation having wasted the land of the so called country of california, that which we hobbits call mordor. The Goblins of Mordor in the late third age discovered Oil. The Goblins consumed the oil, and bathed in the oil, and in time became Orc's. Millions of Orc's were bred in Mordor, and they were used for the great oil wars that went on for generations, until at last the oil was gone, and there was nothing left to steal in the arab-lands of the far east.

In thus doing as they struggle to build more Issengard { Franklin Crossing's ...} like monuments in cascadia they could no longer borrow from the people of the far-west, the so called Fourth-Age people {aseans}. During this time the hobbits of Cascadia saw an opportunity to once and for all rid themselves of those that worshipped the car-keys { californians, aka mordorites }.

The hobbits of cascadia banned the goblin-mobile, that foul spelling monstrosity that burns fossil fuels. Soon the Goblins had no means of transportation, as they had long ago lost the means to walk on their own. Generations of long wars of killing for the sake of killing for oil, and land left the Goblins without children, and they became gradually extinct. The Nazgul rules of californian had enacted a children's-service's, so called CSD, where all Goblin children were taken at birth and placed in Military Training Camps. In time the Goblins out of loss, simply quit breeding among themselves. This left only the NazGul to breed the Goblins and Orc's of California or as we call Mordor.

The hobbits of Cascadia tried to teach their young of the old ways of gentle earth loving folk, when the goblins lost their health they created television, that they broadcasted into hobbit homes with the hope of making hobbits love the things that goblins love, but the wise old hobbits simply unplugged the tv's. With the loss of the propaganda machine, the Goblin ideology's became legend.

In the fourth age hobbits reverted to simple life of old, as all the treasure that the goblins of california could take had been taken, but the hobbits still had a little water, some earth, and their love for things green. Hobbits had always known that the simple life was the best life, a completely different outlook on life than that held by the Goblins to the South and East of Cascadia.

The Nazgul leaders of california, unable to borrow wealth from the new age people of the far west { asean new world } wallowed in filth, and became extinct. They could not rape and rob as they had done in the far east { arab old world }, as they're great killing machines had long been destroyed by attrition. The people of the Far-West { aseans } would no longer finance the the great oil wars. In the final act of desperation the NazGul created a great disease which the people of Mordor called "aids", which was a combination of orc-blood from orcs that had leukemia and wild pigs. This concoction was found to be transmitted sexually and released in the Dark Conentinent of Africa far south of the Arab lands of the Great ancient east.

The Nazgul called land where the orc-blood and pigs were harvested "Litton-Bionetics". In time all of the black men, women, and child Africa was wiped out, it is thought that the goblins had intended to settle in Africa having destroyed Mordor and making it un-inhabitable. The so called 'aids' was unleashed in the Arab world, but failed, as they not being promiscious people, thus the nazgul resorted to creating millions of orc's who slaughtered the arab man, woman, and child by hand. Not since the slaughter of the Tasmanians in the second age, had entire population been wiped from the old earth. During the end times the goblins attempted to unleash their aids weapon upon the far-west aseans, but they being a clever people quickly developed an antidote. By these times the goblins of Mordor had become nearly extinct.

Eventually the returning children of Mordor all children who were killing machines, turned on their own familys, bringing an end to Mordor. Eventually the great tribes of far eastern Mordor fought those on the west, .e.g. the two great mordorian tribes of the west-coast and east-coast annihilated one another.

Most recently the surviving Goblins of Mordor have built 'The Shire" near Bend, a monstrosity that is supposed to be like Bree, but is just another Mordor SubDivision of the third age. Only a few homes in "The Shire" have sold, and those only to rich Goblins and a few Gollum like hobbits. Most of these new homes will never be built as the Goblin financial system had collapsed making it impossible to get easy money to build Mordorian structures near Bend. The goblins financed everything with credit, for they never worked, once the great credit systems that were made available by the great Aseans tribes of man in the Far-West quit financing Mordor most Goblins in Cascadia starved to death.

Hobbits prefer to live on a few acres, where they can have animals, and the children can play. The Goblin's preferred little 50by50 concrete lots where the home's actually touched each other, this was thought a way to as the Goblin Leaders { NazGul } could have the goblins keep an eye on each other.

All of the above is distant legend, its important that this legend be passed down. Even though the Mordorians have wiped themselves out, their spirit lives, the times of greed, war, rape, and pillage could return if the young hobbits are not educated. Those that not know their past are destined to repeat.

Hobbits will always prosper, for the Mordorians have nothing, they say our micro-brew and pipe-weed makes us lazy and unfit for war, they say that ours lands being absent of malls makes their lives boring. They say that our dislike of the oil burning horse makes their lives unbearable. We must never again allow Cascadian Hobbit Lands to become like Mordor to the South and East. So long as we're unfit for war, and our lands contain no wealth for Californians we can live in peace. May our lives always move at a slow pace.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Paul, looks like BB2 got removed from Bendblogs.com.

Welp, I guess I wasn't expecting a Pulitzer...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Jake still has me on UtterlyBoring though... Maybe he filters poor language in titles...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

"Best Buyers Market In 20 Years, Can I F--- You?"

That's what they do on ORBlogs. I think I've done that once before...

Anonymous said...

Paul, looks like BB2 got removed from Bendblogs.com.

Welp, I guess I wasn't expecting a Pulitzer...

*

Homer, the slimey-cunts, don't realize you post on sunday AM, but flag announcement for Monday 7AM, would you please explain to the children why you do this.

They're worried.

Nobody cares about the use of 'fuck' on bend-blogs.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

In all my experience trading, I cannot recall ever coming across any item that it was a great time to buy and sell something simultaneously.

Vasectomy Cancellation Insurance?

Anonymous said...

In all my experience trading, I cannot recall ever coming across any item that it was a great time to buy and sell something simultaneously.

Vasectomy Cancellation Insurance?

*

Concubines. Buy young, sell old.

Leftorium said...

Wow!

Talk about niche marketing... an olive oil store?

Olive oil store opens in Bend
Published: February 19. 2008 4:00AM PST

A store that sells all things olive oil, Coeur d’Alene Olive Oil Co. of Bend, has opened downtown. It’s the first Oregon store for the Coeur d’Alene, Idaho-based company that sells specialty olive oils, tapenades, vinegars, artisan foods and olive-oil based bath products, said Bend partner Randy Klein. The only other store outside Coeur d’Alene is in Spokane, Wash. The olive products are made from the owners’ olive groves in Corning, Calif., using organic farming methods and no pesticides, Klein said. The Bend store, at 130 N.W. Minnesota Ave., is open Tuesday through Saturday, 10:30 p.m. to 5 p.m., and offers daily product tastings.

Bend Economy Man said...

>>>>>>The Bend store, at 130 N.W. Minnesota Ave., is open Tuesday through Saturday, 10:30 a.m. to 5 p.m.,

So this store sells nothing but olive oil and is open 6 1/2 hours a day, 5 days a week?

If you can make the big bucks with a gig like that, sign me up.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


Talk about niche marketing... an olive oil store?


There's an olive store in Sisters. They did so well with it they diversified into nuts!

No but seriously, they're on the verge of going broke.

Duncan McGeary said...

Remember the scotch tape store sketch in Saturday Night Live?

"Man it's so slow.....I just don't understand it."

"Yeah, what more could they want?"

Anonymous said...

So this store sells nothing but olive oil and is open 6 1/2 hours a day, 5 days a week?

If you can make the big bucks with a gig like that, sign me up.


*

Somebody with money is filling a niche, lets hope its a MILF sitting on lots of EX money.

Seriously the best way have is Newport, and they're lacking in quality imported product. I don't think that cali olive-oil with a Sand-Pt-ID name is going to be their brand, but some decent Italian cheese & meat in this town would be nice, and some good olive oil.

This is why so many are looking forward to TJ's.

Will they make money? Of course NOT, but the good news is a lease gets filled, some sucker signed away on a five-year-triple-net, he/she is stuck.

Pretty awesome olive-oil biz, when you can afford to grow olives in cali, have your summer HQ in couer-d'lene, and toss in a satellite in Eastern Washington, and central oregon. Somebody has money, it will be good for awhile, yuppies need a place to taste wine&olive-oil after the place next to merenda's shutdown a few years ago.

Who will BUY? Tourists! They'll see Cour-de'lene, and think its in Greece. The locals will have a place to try real cheese, and real bread, with real meat. It's a good idea given that we're Aspen, its pretty sad, that I can't get real Italian food in this town.

Of course they don't need to make money, look a farm in cali, HQ in ID, satellite in E-WA, and C-OR, this is a hobby empire, depending on whose money it is, it could go on forever.

Think of Bend eventually full of boutiques, sure beats the current BEND full of time-shares sales offices and GOLF course time-share sales offices.

Oh-yea, and BOTOX boutiques, Bends future.

They say don't wish for anything, well we got it, we're Aspen.

These out of town fools with money have been coming into east-oregon forever, bringing in top quality product. How long will they last? It all depends on shelf life, if they really only did stock olive oil, which would last from tourist-cycle to tourist-cycle, it might be ok, but if they stock good bread and cheese, and meat, then the throwaway will eat them alive.

Always been this way here,

Hell even Newport Market carry's shitty quality meat and cheese, if you know your stuff. The meat is NO better than safeway or rays, just a friendly people is what makes Newport.

Many people think that Ray's has better produce than Newport, but then we're out in the middle of the desert, everything has to be brought in.

yea, olive-oil, a good racket, one year shelf life, ... just a lot of tourist stuff that has a long shelf life.

Anonymous said...

remember Paul only beautiful wealthy people live in Bend, OR and need organically grown olive products which I'm sure will be priced 5x what the market should bear. Hey the real winner in the RE blow up and marketing of Bend as the holy land has got to be the commercial real estate landlords they are constantly fleecing these stary eyed equity babies that don't have a real biz plan into leaving every cent in this little desert town.

TruthBeTold said...

Paul -- the goblins have taken over the village! the swank destination resort is no more. goblins now want a fractional housing project! can you say "Plaza Revisited"? the village will be the issengard of the old mill. the goblins have no definitive plan at this point and no financing. they want all of us to put on blinders, drink their kool-aid cocktail and say change is good, as in no amenities for the public and surrounding hood. they even go so far as to say their changes are just minor!!! stay tuned as the goblins are to go before planning division and planning commission with their pinkies crossed behind their collective backs that no one will notice that this project is another failure on the horizon as Bend continues to spiral out of control

timothy said...

>>BTW, I'm not that clear on how Taleb's "Black Swan" theory debunks the "Millionaire Next Door" thesis of frugality and saving.

>>Explanation, please?

My bad for not explaining. If you think about Taleb's approach, it'll make sense, and it's not the refutation you're expecting. He calls Millionaire Next Door "silly" because the implied (or perhaps explicit) conclusion of the book is that people can get rich by doing what rich people do. He claims the book is all backwards because it looks only at millionaires, but ignores all the people who have the same statistics but failed. In other words, the book, as he sees it, is useless.

You probably think he would have gone the other way because he makes fun of the trader who got rich via luck, but admires the dentist who got rich for picking a smart high-probability occupation.

Here's Taleb's take on the Millionaire...

" There is a silly book called A Millionaire Next Door, and one of the authors wrote an even sillier book called The Millionaire's Mind. They interviewed a bunch of millionaires to figure out how these people got rich. Visibly they came up with bunch of traits. You need a little bit of intelligence, a lot of hard work, and a lot of risk-taking. And they derived that, hey, taking risk is good for you if you want to become a millionaire. What these people forgot to do is to go take a look at the less visible cemetery — in other words, bankrupt people, failures, people who went out of business — and look at their traits. They would have discovered that some of the same traits are shared by these people, like hard work and risk taking. This tells me that the unique trait that the millionaires had in common was mostly luck.

This bias makes us miscompute the odds and wrongly ascribe skills. If you funded 1,000,000 unemployed people endowed with no more than the ability to say "buy" or "sell", odds are that you will break-even in the aggregate, minus transaction costs, but a few will hit the jackpot, simply because the base cohort is very large. It will be almost impossible not to have small Warren Buffets by luck alone. After the fact they will be very visible and will derive precise and well-sounding explanations about why they made it. It is difficult to argue with them; "nothing succeeds like success". All these retrospective explanations are pervasive, but there are scientific methods to correct for the bias. This has not filtered through to the business world or the news media; researchers have evidence that professional fund managers are just no better than random and cost money to society (the total revenues from these transaction costs is in the hundreds of billion of dollars) but the public will remain convinced that "some" of these investors have skills. "

timothy said...

You guys are talking about Black Swan. I'm talking about the earlier "Fooled By Randomness," which I think is a much better book.

I think he was full of himself by the second book, and I doubt I'll read a third.

timothy said...

>>I've never been in a bookstore, down to the smallest, yet I couldn't find something I wanted to read.

You always say that, but it doesn't apply to me at all, I read one thing, it makes me want to read another to explore the thought. I often travel by the footnotes.

Amazon's "if you read this you'd like this" has sent me to some of my favorite books. Plus try to find a decent selection of programming or investing books anywhere in Bend. Try to find a particular old book. Or a particular new book. Doesn't happen. Eugene, yes. Portland, yes.

I have something like $200 of credit at the Bookmark and I always walk in there and ask about a couple things and walk away.

Does the bookmark have any Karl Popper philosophy books right now? If yes, I'm there tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

He calls Millionaire Next Door "silly" because the implied (or perhaps explicit) conclusion of the book is that people can get rich by doing what rich people do.
*

I have not read the book, but understand some of the non-obvious principles.

1.) Married to same woman +20 years,
2.) Drives a F100 ( pickup )
3.) Stays within means

I mean this all gets back to richest man in Babylon. Virtually every millionaire that I know lost it cuz of divorce, so #1 is very critical.

Most never get ahead because of #2, to get ahead you got NOT spend for 20 years so you can get some bucks to invest.

#3 is much like the prior paragraph, the pick-up is practical, these young people driving expensive cars will generally always be paupers.

I have NOT read any of the new books, but I have read the reviews, I think we can already agree that Napolean Hill ( think & grow rich ) was good, and so was richest-man in Babylon.

Certainly if a person follows the traits of the rags to riches guy, he'll do better than following SERIN, or any of books written about how to get rich since the 1980's.

Like post earlier all books on this subject were dumbed down post 1980 so they would sell.

Now to the point, I'm a multi-millionaire, and thus I know 1-3 above works, its not the end all be all, but every womanizer, lazy, ostentatious bozo I know since a kid is very poor today.

The only folks besides myself that I have known +30 years who are rich, are the folks who were at the right high-tech company at the right time.

One of my favorite quotes is from my CPA of 30 years "If it were easy to be rich, everyone would be rich".

It's not easy, but on the other hand there's some REAL stupid shit you can do when your young or old, that will inhibit progress permanently, and if you avoid those traits of 'losers', you'll improve the outcome.

Guys like TALEB write books, and as we know other than Stephen King, the money isn't good, so you need to get on the seminar racket to do well. Most of these guys are NOT rich themselves.

A good book on the subject is from the 1960's, "How to Be Rich", JP Getty, the richest man in the world at that day. He told exactly how to do it,

There is NOTHING new under the sun, but there are some really stupid things you can do, ... like flipping RE in Bend post 2004, that's the kind of stuff that will put you in the poor house forever.

Stupid SHIT.

Then the PUSSY thing, over 1/2 the guys that made their fortune in RE like I did all lost it by marrying bimbos over & over, geometric progression on the downside every time you re-marry, the next MILF takes 1/2, you do that 3-4 times in a row and you don't got shit.

Carnegie of steel once said ( richest man in his day ), "Making money is easy, keeping it is hard".

I have NOT read Millionaire Next Door, but from what I understand, he labors to educate dumb-fucks on the stupid shit that men do that guarantee they'll be beggars in old age.

*

Lastly, NOT a fucking any of this has anything to do with black-swans. Most people never get ahead, because most people are doing what everyone else is doing.

Another good quote on this subject is Elvis Presley, when asked "Why do you wiggle your ass, when you perform", He responded, to make money in this biz, you got to be different.

It's very odd, the the secret of wealth, which like 'babylon' says is 1,000's of years old, is still a rare sight to be seen in the common man.

1.) Luck? Sure but it helps to get educated young in a highly technical specialty. Spend your youth wisely and get a good education.

2.) Right Place, Right Time; You don't want to be trying to be realtor in Bend,OR today; go to austin, tx. Every generation has its DOT-COM, be there or be square.

3.) Frugality: Everyone is a millionaire, everyone will make a million in 30 yr working time-frame at $30k/yr or better, yet how many keep their cash?? How many end up as millionaires?? Yet, everyone was a millionaire. Frugality works.

***

Einstein called "Common Sense", the prejudice acquired prior to the age of 18. Tim has suggested giving kids a copy of "think & grow rich". I know that I was reading all those 1950's "HOW TO BE RICH BOOKS", when I was twelve years old.

Its all a habit, you get into the habit when your young, and it stays a habit.

Probably the worst is still PUSSY, the worst thing a kid can do is knock up some welfare mom at 18, and be strapped forever. It's simply impossible to have saved $20k by 25 or earlier if your feeding 1/2 dozen dependents, but guys get fucked by pussy,...

Anonymous said...

On the subject of 'money'.

I have said this before, and I'll say again, MRS-FUCKER are you listening.

Back in the days of 1980's, the realtors that I know that made the BEST money of their lives were working for banks, and dumping their foreclosures, shorts, ... you ... name it, ...

You got a national list of investors with money, and you got a bank that knows you can dump a house in 72 hours, you'll get ALL THE FUCKING BIZ you could want, those days are here NOW, and they'll be here for the next five years.

There IS NO FUCKING reason anybody can't make money in this fucking town, if they use their fucking brain.

Now buster, has given a fucking tip, how many will pursue?

NADA cuz most are too busy starving or making a living, or struggling to pay the SUV payments to make real money.

Anonymous said...

He calls Millionaire Next Door "silly" because the implied (or perhaps explicit) conclusion of the book is that people can get rich by doing what rich people do.

*

Paris Hilton is rich, she gets DUII's, she makes porn, ... thus to get rich you do what the rich do,... Didn't read the Taleb shit, but I suspect that this is the rich he's advising you not use as a role model.

JP Getty wrote "How to be Rich", and went from rags to riches, this is the kind of rich person one needs to use as a role model.

MOST RICH are 2nd, 3rd, ... generation, its VERY hard to find 1st gen rich, cuz they're NOT at the fucking pool, bar, traveling, they're working until the day they die, and generally they're NOT writing books.

So yes I would agree that imitating the 'riche' is a very fucking stupid thing to do. On the the other hand there are many people that amass fortunes from 20 to 40 years of age, and throughout the times, they have written books. They're NOT going to be be best selling books, because by definition, they're going to tell you that its all about frugality, working-smart ( & not hard ), ...

To me the MOST critical thing is to imitate what real rich do, you know an really rich entrepreneur? Get a job and work for him, and learn his biz, cuz when you start your own biz, you'll want to do what works.

MOST businesses are FUCKED, its very rare to work for someone that actually makes money. During the last 20 years almost all corp America is debt.

This is what pisses me off about Warren Buffet he talks shit about how Ben Graham was his mentor, but rule-1 of Graham, was don't buy a leveraged holding company, and that is all that Berkshire-Hathaway is, is a leveraged holding company.

The fact is Buffet is using Grahams ideas in reverse, the secret to fleecing fools, my point is whatever works. To Buffet he is a student of Graham, yet he follows very little of the advice that Graham suggests. On the other hand its NOT clear that Graham was a very rich man, on the other hand, Buffet is one of the richest men in the world.

SO here is my fucking point, don't do what Graham says, or Buffet says', do what Buffet does, and by that I don't mean be a coat-tailer, which is a crock-of-shit, you would need to work in one of Buffets insurance company, learn the racket, and start your own insurance company, best racket around collect premiums, and deny claims, and invest the premiums.

for your edification said...

States Try to Manage Foreclosure Rules

Legislators have introduced bills to protect homeowners from foreclosure in Georgia and Oregon, while the Maryland Court of Appeals has ruled it is not unconstitutional to start foreclosure if the homeowner has not received notification.

A Georgia bill introduced by Democratic Senator Emanuel Jones would extend the period between foreclosure and sale of a property from 37 to 90 days.

The proposal aims to curb the number of foreclosures in metro Atlanta, which hit a record high of 58,076 in 2007, according to a study by Atlanta-based real estate data firm Equity Depot.

The Oregon House unanimously passed a bill Thursday that would prevent lenders from taking advantage of homeowners facing foreclosure.

Under the bill, homeowners would have at least 24 hours to go over contracts. Lenders would be required to spell out contract terms in plain language and include information on how homeowners can cancel their contracts.

The bill also addresses foreclosure notice requirements. The notice would have to contain information on how much the homeowner owes and how much he or she must pay to get out of foreclosure

“Not only does this help families facing this devastating loss of home, it will also help protect Oregon’s economy from the severe economic downturn our country is facing,” said Democratic Representative Suzanne Bonamici, vice chair of the House Consumer Protection Committee, in a statement.

Meanwhile, the Maryland Court of Appeals did not side with a woman who claimed her constitutional rights were violated because foreclosure proceeded on her home, even though she never received notices.

The mortgage issuer sent notice to Joyce Griffin via two certified letters and two regular mail letters, none of which were received. She found out her home was sold in a foreclosure auction only after the new owner posted a notice on her door.

Although the court noted banks should be required to have proof that homeowners received foreclosure notices, the opinion determined Griffin’s case should be taken up by the legislature.

(accidently posted on older post)

Anonymous said...

The Mother of All Financial Fucks Coming to You Soon

by Martin Wolf

"I would tell audiences that we were facing not a bubble but a froth - lots of small, local bubbles that never grew to a scale that could threaten the health of the overall economy." Alan Greenspan, The Age of Turbulence.
ADVERTISEMENT

That used to be Mr Greenspan's view of the US housing bubble. He was wrong, alas. So how bad might this downturn get? To answer this question we should ask a true bear. My favourite one is Nouriel Roubini of New York University's Stern School of Business, founder of RGE monitor.

Recently, Professor Roubini's scenarios have been dire enough to make the flesh creep. But his thinking deserves to be taken seriously. He first predicted a US recession in July 2006*. At that time, his view was extremely controversial. It is so no longer. Now he states that there is "a rising probability of a 'catastrophic' financial and economic outcome"**. The characteristics of this scenario are, he argues: "A vicious circle where a deep recession makes the financial losses more severe and where, in turn, large and growing financial losses and a financial meltdown make the recession even more severe."

Prof Roubini is even fonder of lists than I am. Here are his 12 - yes, 12 - steps to financial disaster.

Step one is the worst housing recession in US history. House prices will, he says, fall by 20 to 30 per cent from their peak, which would wipe out between $4,000bn and $6,000bn in household wealth. Ten million households will end up with negative equity and so with a huge incentive to put the house keys in the post and depart for greener fields. Many more home-builders will be bankrupted.

Step two would be further losses, beyond the $250bn-$300bn now estimated, for subprime mortgages. About 60 per cent of all mortgage origination between 2005 and 2007 had "reckless or toxic features", argues Prof Roubini. Goldman Sachs estimates mortgage losses at $400bn. But if home prices fell by more than 20 per cent, losses would be bigger. That would further impair the banks' ability to offer credit.

Step three would be big losses on unsecured consumer debt: credit cards, auto loans, student loans and so forth. The "credit crunch" would then spread from mortgages to a wide range of consumer credit.

Step four would be the downgrading of the monoline insurers, which do not deserve the AAA rating on which their business depends. A further $150bn writedown of asset-backed securities would then ensue.

Step five would be the meltdown of the commercial property market, while step six would be bankruptcy of a large regional or national bank.

Step seven would be big losses on reckless leveraged buy-outs. Hundreds of billions of dollars of such loans are now stuck on the balance sheets of financial institutions.

Step eight would be a wave of corporate defaults. On average, US companies are in decent shape, but a "fat tail" of companies has low profitability and heavy debt. Such defaults would spread losses in "credit default swaps", which insure such debt. The losses could be $250bn. Some insurers might go bankrupt.

Step nine would be a meltdown in the "shadow financial system". Dealing with the distress of hedge funds, special investment vehicles and so forth will be made more difficult by the fact that they have no direct access to lending from central banks.

Step 10 would be a further collapse in stock prices. Failures of hedge funds, margin calls and shorting could lead to cascading falls in prices.

Step 11 would be a drying-up of liquidity in a range of financial markets, including interbank and money markets. Behind this would be a jump in concerns about solvency.

Step 12 would be "a vicious circle of losses, capital reduction, credit contraction, forced liquidation and fire sales of assets at below fundamental prices".

These, then, are 12 steps to meltdown. In all, argues Prof Roubini: "Total losses in the financial system will add up to more than $1,000bn and the economic recession will become deeper more protracted and severe." This, he suggests, is the "nightmare scenario" keeping Ben Bernanke and colleagues at the US Federal Reserve awake. It explains why, having failed to appreciate the dangers for so long, the Fed has lowered rates by 200 basis points this year. This is insurance against a financial meltdown.

Is this kind of scenario at least plausible? It is. Furthermore, we can be confident that it would, if it came to pass, end all stories about "decoupling". If it lasts six quarters, as Prof Roubini warns, offsetting policy action in the rest of the world would be too little, too late.

Can the Fed head this danger off? In a subsequent piece, Prof Roubini gives eight reasons why it cannot***. (He really loves lists!) These are, in brief: US monetary easing is constrained by risks to the dollar and inflation; aggressive easing deals only with illiquidity, not insolvency; the monoline insurers will lose their credit ratings, with dire consequences; overall losses will be too large for sovereign wealth funds to deal with; public intervention is too small to stabilise housing losses; the Fed cannot address the problems of the shadow financial system; regulators cannot find a good middle way between transparency over losses and regulatory forbearance, both of which are needed; and, finally, the transactions-oriented financial system is itself in deep crisis.

The risks are indeed high and the ability of the authorities to deal with them more limited than most people hope. This is not to suggest that there are no ways out. Unfortunately, they are poisonous ones. In the last resort, governments resolve financial crises. This is an iron law. Rescues can occur via overt government assumption of bad debt, inflation, or both. Japan chose the first, much to the distaste of its ministry of finance. But Japan is a creditor country whose savers have complete confidence in the solvency of their government. The US, however, is a debtor. It must keep the trust of foreigners. Should it fail to do so, the inflationary solution becomes probable. This is quite enough to explain why gold costs $920 an ounce.

The connection between the bursting of the housing bubble and the fragility of the financial system has created huge dangers, for the US and the rest of the world. The US public sector is now coming to the rescue, led by the Fed. In the end, they will succeed. But the journey is likely to be wretchedly uncomfortable.

bruce said...

Re:
Back about 3-4 years ago at the D&D there used to be a guy who gave $1 hand-jobs at the bar, and the full monty in the head.

He called himself bruce.

I just stopped in to catch up. Thanks for the laugh ;)

LavaBear said...

The Mother of All Financial Fucks Coming to You Soon
****

This is really the reason the COBA packet just made me laugh....they don't even know who the enemy really is. They have their heads so stuck up their PR assholes they don't see the tsunami rolling in. There is no mo' money. There really never was, it was all made up "credit" and that shit can't be written off fast enough.

It all makes me want to back the truck up to Nosler and load it up. I got your back Buster.

bruce said...

Re: Back in the days of 1980's, the realtors that I know that made the BEST money of their lives were working for banks, and dumping their foreclosures, shorts, ... you ... name it, ...

You got a national list of investors with money, and you got a bank that knows you can dump a house in 72 hours, you'll get ALL THE FUCKING BIZ you could want, those days are here NOW, and they'll be here for the next five years.

...

That sounds like today. So where's the opportunity? What is the specific mechanism of the transaction? Who do you talk to, what docs do you execute?

I'm curious.

Anonymous said...

The layoffs are a comin'. Palisch homes just laid off 17 employees including 4 of their 6 superintendents. They were the last builder still slamming houses up. Supposedly unloaded the building that their offices are located in also. Maybe wal mart is hiring.

bruce said...

Re:
Then on the other hand if you plan and save, then you really can retire by the time your 4

The funny part to me is I ran around a lot up to 35. Schools, locales, girls, etc. Best time of my life. I love going fast and I love deep snow. Over your head for many turns type snow. Hand throwing explosives 10-20+ times a morning deep snow (they never let me anywhere near the 105, except for carrying ammo).

And now I'm on the 20-years to retire plan. With a wife I love and admire to no end. Hopefully the plan works, adjusted for whatever occurs over the long run.

Although I can't imagine never working on something fun/interesting. Retirement? Baaah! Only if it involves more travel to cool places.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Back about 3-4 years ago at the D&D there used to be a guy who gave $1 hand-jobs at the bar, and the full monty in the head.

What happened to full head to a guy named Monty?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The layoffs are a comin'. Palisch homes just laid off 17 employees including 4 of their 6 superintendents.

Where'd you hear that?

Too bad. One of the only decent paying jobs for normal guys is going away...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Damn! mstucker posted Armaggedon sales figures over on BendBB. Thru 2/19, only 19 sales.

I mean Holy Shitballs!

People were talking about sub-100 months as The End of the World.

We could easily do LESS THAN 50 THIS MONTH. That's The End. I mean Holy Fucking Shit!

Game Over Man! GAME OVER!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

a bend native posted this:

lets do all homes in bend to date.

30 with a median of $327,545 feb to current and in jan was 91 with a median of $313,477


Hard to decipher. Sounds like (s)he is saying 91 solds in Jan (to Jan 19)... but David Foster shows 73 total sales in jan 08. maybe David omits manufactured, etc...

No matter how you slice it, Feb 08 will be the cruelest months in many, MANY moons.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

You know how many people 50 sales/month will support?

Mabye 50 or 60.

What the fuck are the other 9,940 people in RE transaction businesses in Cent OR supposed to do?

Shit. We're dead.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Wow. 100th comment. Better make it good.

FUCK! WE'RE DEAD FUCKIN MEAT!

LavaBear said...

FUCK! WE'RE DEAD FUCKIN MEAT!

***

6th Sense....we been dead just didn't figure it out till too late.

Anonymous said...

Heard about palisch from someone who works for them. Can't confirm the building sale, only the layoffs.

timothy said...

The gears have ground to a halt. You can hear the silence.

Next up: the flood of "spring" inventory.

So Paul, how many years of inventory will we have at the end of February?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

So Paul, how many years of inventory will we have at the end of February?

Well, last Feb David Foster recorded 132 sales, and 1,168 homes for sale at the end of that month. That's about 8.9 months of inventory.

Jan 08 was 13% higher inventory than Jan 07, and Feb 07 was 1,173, so if Feb is 13% higher than last Feb, that yields 1,326 homes.

If we sell 50 homes, that's 26.5 months. 40 homes is 33.15 months. 30 homes (Armaggedon), yields 44.2 months.

We're going to have to really bust it out to hit 50 homes by the end of the month. 30 homes seems to horrible to consider. I'm guessing 30 months for Feb 08, or 2 1/2 years.

That's GAME OVER for soooooo many people around here. That's Hasson, Remax & Morris shutting down shop in The Old Mill & leasing 1,000sf next to a consignment shop, or something. These people cannot make their lease/mtg payments at that level of sales, much less anything else.

I think a lot of brokerage will go "boutique" in the next few years. Big franchises will exit. Lots of little 4-5 man shops. And of course the rise of cut-rate, limited service shops. Bye-bye 6%.

Anonymous said...

12 Steps to Economic Catastrophe:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4d19518c-df0d-11dc-91d4-0000779fd2ac.html

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The gears have ground to a halt. You can hear the silence.

Thank you local Bend media for giving the Bubble Bursting all the fair & balanced reporting you gave the Inflating Bubble.

Nice.

Anonymous said...

"Additionally each of the participating organizations are requested to utilize their advertising strength & partnerships to "economically encourage" local media to print and broadcast the stories."

As someone with extensive experience in the news media and PR, I can say that such tactics more often than not are counterproductive. No editor
likes to be threatened with loss of advertising for not printing somebody's bullshit news release, and the likely response to such a threat is to tell whoever made it to stick their news release where the sun don't shine. Whoever came up with this dumb suggestion is a PR amateur.

Anonymous said...

. No editor
likes to be threatened with loss of advertising for not printing somebody's bullshit news release, and the likely response to such a threat is to tell whoever made it to stick their news release where the sun don't shine.

*

This is BEND, the BULL has now 3 regular advertisers, if they say JUMP, the BULL says how high.

Your forgetting that the town isn't diversified. The BULL & SORE have no choice but to go along, or go out of biz.

Altruism may work else-where, but not in Bend, here if you don't eat-shit, your out of a job.

Anonymous said...

Blogger bruce said...

Re:
Then on the other hand if you plan and save, then you really can retire by the time your 4

*

Yep, bruce-pussy is correct, plan in the womb, and be set by 4.

Now bruce right a fucking self-help book, before its too late, mothers all over America will want their unborn children to know your secret.

MStucker said...

Let us have a look at a broader picture of Central Oregon.
At peak there were 2200+ members of COAR. Made up of RE brokers, appraisers, and licensed assistants. About 200+ did not renew their memberships this year.
In all areas of CO that COAR covers, during the first 20 days of Feb.there are 84 sold at a median of $265k, This includes all types of residential properties (straw built also). In 07, same period of time there were 212 sold at a median of $305k. There are currently 4179 active residential listings in all areas of CO.
You can assume, of the 1600 RE broker members that 1500 will not get a paycheck this month. The Realtor membership will need to drop to less than 500 for that few to make a meger living in 08.
There are many who have not closed a home in 6 months and several I have talked to only have 2 months expenses left to live on.

BOOMB...implosion!

Anonymous said...

That sounds like today. So where's the opportunity? What is the specific mechanism of the transaction? Who do you talk to, what docs do you execute?

I'm curious. - bruce

*

BRUCE, note what I wrote "realtors who made the best money of their lives".

The trade is largely about who-you-blow. If you have been a realtor in a town like Bend for say 10+ years, then you should know everyone, bankers, mtg, why the fuck do people golf? Connections.

Most people are poor, but a good realtor knows who has money, and money people always know other money people. Money people are always looking for a good deal ( investment ).

Banks, anyone who holds 'toxic RE' is the key, they need to dump that shit, and molly@the keyboard, or ms frumpy, or mr golf isn't going to dump the shit. Getting rich during these foreclosure cycles is simply about the numbers game.

There really is no money in a little guy buying a foreclosure, the real money is the commission that a bank gives you for dumping toxic shit.

Ok, bruce I'll play the game, but first of all your NOT a realtor, and you just crawled into this town from Provo, and you don't know anybody, so this is a waste of time.

You know which banks are sitting on toxic shit, you work with those banks and get listing(s) of shit they want dumped, you line up investors and get them a deal, and you dump the whole lot, then the bank gives you an exclusive deal.

Look at this fucking BEND PR&MARKETING they wouldn't keep dumping money if it didn't work, and there are 'investors' all over the country looking for deals in the next Aspen.

The BIZ of dumping foreclosures for the bank used to be around 2%, in the 80's dumping $50k homes that was still $1k/day per home. Which was good money to be made. Today with the crap-shacks going for $160k, you can still get $3k/home. ( I have friends that were dumping 2 or 3 homes a five day work week for years )

There are MANY ways to find investors, its BEST to know them, the problem in general is you don't want the bank to know how you do it, as they'll cut you off. ( Just like the drug biz, your a middle man, you don't let the investor meet the banker ) { Read "robert ringer", if you want to know how banks fuck middle men, but this is why you must be the bankers buddy in the first place } If your NOT a good old boy, then your fucked to begin with.

Look right now, nothing is selling, but we're creating MORE foreclosures than we're building or selling. There is a foreclosure BUBBLE that will last for years, smart folks will be following their nose to the money.

Investor criteria? Is simply like myself if a home can pencil, then I buy it, I don't buy no more, and I don't want no more.

There are a lot of investors, The problem is pencil criteria in Bend has to fall to $160k, which is 1/2 from now. The problem for the banks is some of this shit owes, or MOST owes over $300k, but there will be short sales, and the bank will be glad to dump the shit for $160k, which makes the investor BUY.

In the 80's people were buying homes for $80k, for little down, and when it all went bust down to $30k, the investors were buying the stuff from the banks, commissions are always negotiable. Banks don't want homes, and once the floor falls out the banks will be offering prices that pencil to investors. Smart BANKER's know that today.

{ Yesterday & tomorrow they'll all walk once their equity goes -50% }

***
What a fucking 'joke' what doc's do you execute, what fucking button do you push. We're not talking about taking a leak here.

You have to know people, you have to know banks that dump toxic shit to dump, and you have to know investors that can close in 72 hours.

You don't know people? Then crawl back into your whole.

Anonymous said...

I think a lot of brokerage will go "boutique" in the next few years. Big franchises will exit. Lots of little 4-5 man shops. And of course the rise of cut-rate, limited service shops. Bye-bye 6%.

*

Most RE shops in Bend, are false fronts, just signs, and open space, the realtors themselves rent/lease the space, this way those that don't perform have to leave, and don't take space.

Now that nothing closes the realtors will be working from home and networking.

With internet, skype, ... there is NO reason not to work from home, cut the over-head.

I think the only boutique realtors will be losers afraid of being alone.

The real ball busters will be out getting listings, which gets their name on the street, and running a website.

CUT the fucking burn rate. No reason to have an office, this is what coffee shops are for.

Commission is a hard call, given the 4-way nature today, your right, bye, a guy/gal working from home can do it for 3%, unless they have to split with another house, but chance is there will be no other house.

There will just be realtors working from home, and perhaps splitting commission.

Note they're lucking to close every 60 days for $4k, which is $2k/mo income, thus you got to be married to someone with a job to be in this racket.

This is why I love the bank/foreclosure racket, you can make $1k/day or more no problem, which is sweet money in a depression.

There are going to be 100's if not 1,000's of empty BEND commercial office spaces in this town for years to come.

Anonymous said...

Affordable-Housing, becomes slum, becomes gangland in PDX, ... Want to see Bend in a year, look at PDX today.

***

A longtime homeowner in the Argay neighborhood on Portland's east side says her husband wants her to get a concealed weapons permit and a handgun so she can safely walk her dog.
Once a bucolic neighborhood filled with older homes, the Argay neighborhood is now becoming cramped as apartment complexes, condos and row houses spring up. Police say that along with the many new homes going up, the crime rate has kept pace. Many longtime residents have left the area.
The homeowner, who did not want to be identified, said friends ask her why she doesn't move away now that there is "a ghetto down the street."
She says the neighborhood has been taken over by drug dealers and prostitutes. Statistics show that drug crimes and prostitution have grown almost 300 percent in the Argay area between 2003 and 2007.
Police patrolling the area, often rolling down unpaved streets, said housing lots that used to hold one home now have over 20 homes crammed into the same space.
East Portland Police Commander Mike Crebs said the problem lies with the explosion of "affordable housing," which he thinks could turn into slums in the near future.
He said the new homes are poorly built and will not last. He also says much of the housing lacks "neighborhood" features such as sidewalks, outdoor lighting, fencing and landscaping.
Metro planner Robert Liberty told KATU that there is no relationship between crime and population density. He says the source of the crime is high-density poverty.
But Liberty does agree that slums are a possibility due to the lower quality "in-fill housing."

Anonymous said...

Metro planner Robert Liberty told KATU that there is no relationship between crime and population density.

[ Yes, just come to Bend, the rich from all over the world have came here, and prove that 9 out of 10 rich prefer high-density over low-density. ]

He says the source of the crime is high-density poverty.

[ Ya, Bend has lots of poverty, and hight density. ]

But Liberty does agree that slums are a possibility due to the lower quality "in-fill housing."

[ Nothing of lower-quality on earth, than 2002->2006 Bend crap-shacks on flag-lots. ]

Anonymous said...

"Your forgetting that the town isn't diversified. The BULL & SORE have no choice but to go along, or go out of biz."

RE advertising is a huge money-maker for THE BULL, much less so for THE SORE. It will be interesting to see whether THE BULL is willing to pimp for COBA and COAR.

Duncan McGeary said...

I foresee a future of roving bands of real estate agents, living out of their SUV's, waylaying the unwary traveler.

Make-up streaked into war paint, cell phones strapped to sticks and made into clubs, For Sale flyers clued into body armor.

Anonymous said...

So instead of laying off people why doesn't Pahlisch just cut the prices of their homes. I checked their website -- their new sub-division in Sisters has three houses available, including one at $533,250 for 2448sq ft.

That's $218 per sq ft. If they LOWER prices they just sell one.

Anonymous said...

I guess my question is:

Instead of laying of 17 employees, why not FIRST try lowering the price of each of your houses by $100,000?

If that fails to work, THEN lay off the employees.

Anonymous said...

Instead of laying of 17 employees, why not FIRST try lowering the price of each of your houses by $100,000?

If that fails to work, THEN lay off the employees.

*

All the people are going to get laid off, might as well do it now, while you still have excuses, like a slow-down, laying people off during a total collapse doesn't look good.

Builder's know its over, sub's are now down right almost working for free just to stay busy.

These days its probably smarter to layoff all full-time people, and then hire sub's at sub-min wage, that's how its going be done, for those that survive this RE depression.

Anonymous said...

RE advertising is a huge money-maker for THE BULL, much less so for THE SORE.

*

Its a complete waste of money to do image-advertising in the BULL.

At less than one house a day selling, its best to work relationships, and word of mouth.

The BULL & SORE are fucked, I hope that Switzer has lots of savings to tide the depression, and the BULL well they're fucked before xmas, they're dead me walking, and they know it.

Anonymous said...

http://www.ocpp.org/2008/iss20080219Subprimemaps_fnl.pdf

The above is the critical care report on where Oregon will be the worst, note Bend is bad, but there are much worst places.

Subprime census report 2008, by district, the define subprime by high interest rates, not low-quality people, I agree, by definition only a bozo pays high rates,

Anonymous said...

Bend subprime ranking #25, subprime 22%.

Note Bend is NOT #1, sorry PR&MARKETING doesn't always work.


#1 40% subprime, I-5 corridor Salem to Woodburn. Commuter heaven.

Anonymous said...

Of course, factors besides subprime loans impact the foreclosure rate.

These include declining
home prices,

[ bend ]

a weak local economy,

[ bend ]

or a high concentration of risky mortgage products besides
subprime loans.

[bend ]

But with subprime loan delinquencies already high and rising, census tracts in
which these loans are concentrated should concern policymakers and those seeking to
ameliorate the problem through public education and other means.

[ yea, Bend is the perfect storm, and the dark clouds are on the horizon ]

Yes, subprime is only 22% of Bends problem, another variable NOT in the report is second-homes, and flippers, and investment inventory. Had they added that and ranked by all issues, Bend would be #1, hooray, someday maybe Bend will make the #1 list, but this report is political, and its purpose is to help the SALEM area, e.g. the working government poor.

timothy said...

>>The BULL & SORE are fucked, I hope that Switzer has lots of savings to tide the depression, and the BULL well they're fucked before xmas, they're dead me walking, and they know it.

RE & Mortgage people fucked first. Bulletin is fucked second.

Yes, they are fucked, but still bringing in in lots of RE advertising money. Why? Lots of out-of-town owners that are just STARTING to get the hint. They'll pay for the ads themselves if they have to. I think this fall is when the Bulletin will be in trouble. Because that's when the out-of-staters will stop paying for ads that don't work.

Friend of mine who is a Realtor says they ALL want big-ass ads because they are getting desperate. Realtors have to screen clients now because it's a waste to take someone who thinks their house is still worth $500k.

You look at them and their $500k house, and you say $350k. If they blink, you drive away.

Anonymous said...

Garzini is back in the news, ENDGAME Alaska is #1 one facility will hold 2m, google "garzini prison alaska"

***

Now We Know Why There’s A Press Blackout On S 1959 - It’s Called “ENDGAME” By DHS

Update: The basics of this article were substantiated by the San Francisco Chronicle on 2-4-08 LINK

Today I received a tip by a fellow writer that KBR (Kellogg Brown & Root, Inc.), a subsidiary of Halliburton, was behind the creation of Senate Bill S 1959, otherwise known as the “Thought Crime Prevention Bill”, or by its legal designation, the “Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act of 2007.” I wasn’t able to make a solid connection that indicated KBR was actually behind the introduction of S 1959, but what I did find demonstrates we are likely approaching the final days when Homeland Security (sic) implements their “final solution” which DHS has labeled as “EndGame.”

Anonymous said...

http://justanothercoverup.com/?p=356

Alaska, KBR, ENDGAME

http://justanothercoverup.com/?p=398

San Francisco Chronicle Acknowledges ENDGAME By Homeland Security
February 10th, 2008 · No Comments

In a rare breath of fresh air, The San Francisco Chronicle has now written an article confirming concentration camps in the United Sates and the possible impact of “Endgame” - and based on the few comments that were made, people don’t want to believe the truth. Unfortunately, Americans are acting the same as the Jews, disabled, and dissidents did during Hitler’s Third Reich, always believing it could never happen to them… When presented with the evidence that our own government is readying itself to imprison hundreds of thousands, or even millions of patriotic Americans that refuse to support a criminal and perhaps mentally unbalanced President LINK LINK - the author of the article, even though Dan Hamburg is a former Congressman, has been ridiculed for telling the truth:

Anonymous said...

San Francisco Chronicle Acknowledges ENDGAME By Homeland Security
February 10th, 2008 · No Comments

In a rare breath of fresh air, The San Francisco Chronicle has now written an article confirming concentration camps in the United Sates and the possible impact of “Endgame” - and based on the few comments that were made, people don’t want to believe the truth. Unfortunately, Americans are acting the same as the Jews, disabled, and dissidents did during Hitler’s Third Reich, always believing it could never happen to them… When presented with the evidence that our own government is readying itself to imprison hundreds of thousands, or even millions of patriotic Americans that refuse to support a criminal and perhaps mentally unbalanced President LINK LINK - the author of the article, even though Dan Hamburg is a former Congressman, has been ridiculed for telling the truth:

Rule by fear or rule by law?

Lewis Seiler,Dan Hamburg

Monday, February 4, 2008

“The power of the Executive to cast a man into prison without formulating any charge known to the law, and particularly to deny him the judgment of his peers, is in the highest degree odious and is the foundation of all totalitarian government whether Nazi or Communist.”

- Winston Churchill, Nov. 21, 1943

Since 9/11, and seemingly without the notice of most Americans, the federal government has assumed the authority to institute martial law, arrest a wide swath of dissidents (citizen and noncitizen alike), and detain people without legal or constitutional recourse in the event of “an emergency influx of immigrants in the U.S., or to support the rapid development of new programs.”

Beginning in 1999, the government has entered into a series of single-bid contracts with Halliburton subsidiary Kellogg, Brown and Root (KBR) to build detention camps at undisclosed locations within the United States. The government has also contracted with several companies to build thousands of railcars, some reportedly equipped with shackles, ostensibly to transport detainees.

According to diplomat and author Peter Dale Scott, the KBR contract is part of a Homeland Security plan titled ENDGAME, which sets as its goal the removal of “all removable aliens” and “potential terrorists.”

Fraud-busters such as Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Los Angeles, have complained about these contracts, saying that more taxpayer dollars should not go to taxpayer-gouging Halliburton. But the real question is: What kind of “new programs” require the construction and refurbishment of detention facilities in nearly every state of the union with the capacity to house perhaps millions of people? MORE

To those of us that receive our news from sources other than the MSM, the facts alleged in the story were no surprise, but the lack of comments, and those of a negative nature were indeed a surprise. Why are the bulk of Americans so complacent? This is one of the comments that appears online:

watcher2 wrote:

I suggest that Seiler and Hamburg re-read the title to their piece…”Rule by fear or rule by law”…and then examine the activities of those they seek to defend. “Activists” (I use the term loosely) whose appear unable to understand the difference between: “I don’t like what you do, please stop”, and “I don’t like what you do and if you don’t stop, I’ll (burn your car, burn your house, threaten you with physical violence…or if you happen to live in England…I’ll rob the graves of your relatives or attack you with baseball bats…insert your own threat)”, and have failed to understand the difference between protest and blackmail. I don’t recall the right to blackmail as a part of the 1st amendment…or did I miss that? More power to Ms Harman. In her own state there resides a medic who advocates the killing of researchers as a defensible was to save the lives of lab rats….rule by fear or rule by law? Hmmm, think I know where I stand on that one.

When you take into consideration the importance of a mainstream newspaper actually breaking the silence on this issue, I expected pages of comments, however, the original article was published on February 4th, and so far, there have only been five (5) comments, two of them made today. The article was concise and didn’t go into the specifics when I wrote Now We Know Why There’s A Press Blackout On S 1959 - It’s Called “ENDGAME” By DHS on December 21st, 2007, but they did cover the essentials - and it went nowhere. Why? It’s one thing when people don’t choose to believe what we research and write on our Blogs, but when the public ignores a dire warning by a mainstream newspaper, it’s obvious that America’s complacency, if it doesn’t stop soon, could be the final nail in FEMA’s coffin for all of us.

William Cormier

Anonymous said...

Benanke tells US GOVERNMENT - WERE FUCKED!
***

Bernanke's State of the Economy Speech: "You are all Dead Ducks"
Economic Policy
by Mike Whitney

Even veteran Fed-watchers were caught off-guard by Chairman Bernanke's performance before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday. Bernanke was expected to make routine comments on the state of the economy but, instead, delivered a 45-minute sermon detailing the afflictions of the foundering financial system. The Senate chamber was stone-silent throughout. The gravity of the situation is finally beginning to sink in.

For the most part, the pedantic Bernanke looked uneasy; alternately biting his lower lip or staring ahead blankly like a man who just watched his poodle get run over by a Mack truck. As it turns out, Bernanke has plenty to worry about, too. Consumer confidence has dropped to levels not seen since the 1970s recession, real estate has gone off a cliff, credit-brushfires are breaking out everywhere, and the stock market continues to gyrate erratically. No wonder the Fed-chief looked more like a deck-hand on the Lusitania than the monetary-czar of the most powerful country on earth.

Bernanke's prepared remarks were delivered with the solemnity of a priest performing Vespers. But he was clear, unlike his predecessor, Greenspan, who loved speaking in hieroglyphics.

Bernanke:

As you know, financial markets in the United States and in a number of other industrialized countries have been under considerable strain since late last summer. Heightened investor concerns about the credit quality of mortgages, especially subprime mortgages with adjustable interest rates, triggered the financial turmoil. However, other factors, including a broader retrenchment in the willingness of investors to bear risk, difficulties in valuing complex or illiquid financial products, uncertainties about the exposures of major financial institutions to credit losses, and concerns about the weaker outlook for the economy, have also roiled the financial markets in recent months."

Yes, of course. The banks are ailing from their subprime investments while Europe is sinking fast from $500 billion in unsellable asset-backed garbage. The whole system is clogged with crappy paper and deteriorating collateral. Now there are problems popping up in auction rate sales and the normally-safe municipal bonds. The whole financial Tower of Babel is cracking at the foundation.

Bernanke continues:

Money center banks and other large financial institutions have come under significant pressure to take onto their own balance sheets the assets of some of the off-balance-sheet investment vehicles that they had sponsored. Bank balance sheets have swollen further as a consequence of the sharp reduction in investor willingness to buy securitized credits, which has forced banks to retain a substantially higher share of previously committed and new loans in their own portfolios. Banks have also reported large losses, reflecting marked declines in the market prices of mortgages and other assets that they hold. Recently, deterioration in the financial condition of some bond insurers has led some commercial and investment banks to take further markdowns and has added to strains in the financial markets.

Bernanke sounds more like an Old Testament prophet reading passages from the Book of Revelations than a Central Banker. But what he says is true; even without the hair-shirt. The humongous losses at the investment banks have forced them to go trolling for capital in Asia and the Middle East just to stay afloat. And, when they succeed, they're forced to pay excessively high rates of interest. The true cost of capital is skyrocketing. That's why the banks are protecting their liquidity and cutting back on new loans. Most of the banks have also tightened lending standards which is slowing down the issuance of credit and threatens to push the economy into a deep recession. When banks cramp-up, the overall economy shrinks. It's just that simple, no credit, no growth. Credit is the lubricant that keeps the capitalist locomotive chugging-along. When it dwindles, the system screeches to a halt.

"DOWNSIDE RISKS TO GROWTH HAVE INCREASED"

Bernanke again:

In part as the result of the developments in financial markets, the outlook for the economy has worsened in recent months, and the downside risks to growth have increased. To date, the largest economic effects of the financial turmoil appear to have been on the housing market, which, as you know, has deteriorated significantly over the past two years or so. The virtual shutdown of the subprime mortgage market and a widening of spreads on jumbo mortgage loans have further reduced the demand for housing, while foreclosures are adding to the already-elevated inventory of unsold homes. Further cuts in homebuilding and in related activities are likely.... Conditions in the labor market have also softened. Payroll employment, after increasing about 95,000 per month on average in the fourth quarter, declined by an estimated 17,000 jobs in January. Employment in the construction and manufacturing sectors has continued to fall, while the pace of job gains in the services industries has slowed. The softer labor market, together with factors including higher energy prices, lower equity prices, and declining home values, seem likely to weigh on consumer spending in the near term.

So, let's summarize. The banks are battered by their massive subprime liabilities. Housing is in the tank. Manufacturing is down. Food and energy are up. Unemployment is rising. And consumer spending has shriveled to the size of an acorn. All that's missing is a trumpet blast and the arrival of the Four Horseman. How is it that Bernanke's economic post-mortem never made its way into the major media? Is there some reason the real state of the economy is being concealed from 'we the people'?

Bernanke continues:

On the inflation front, a key development over the past year has been the steep run-up in the price of oil. Last year, food prices also increased exceptionally rapidly by recent standards, and the foreign exchange value of the dollar weakened.... (If) inflation expectations to become unmoored or for the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility to be eroded could greatly complicate the task of sustaining price stability and reduce the central bank's policy flexibility to counter shortfalls in growth in the future.

Right. So, if the Fed's rate-cutting strategy doesn't work and the economic troubles persist (and prices continue to go through the roof) then we're S.O.L. (sh** out of luck) because the Fed has no more arrows in its quiver. It's rate cuts or death. Great. So, we can expect Bernanke to hack away at rates until they're down to 1% or lower (duplicating the downturn in Japan) hoping that the economy shows some sign of life before it takes two full wheelbarrows of greenbacks to buy a quart of milk and a few seed-potatoes.

Sounds like a plan!

We don't blame Bernanke. He's been remarkably straightforward from the very beginning and deserves credit. He's simply left with the thankless task of mopping up the ocean of red ink left behind by Greenspan. It's not his fault. He should be applauded for dispelling the decades-long illusion that a nation can borrow its way to prosperity or that chronic indebtedness is the same as real wealth. It's not; and the bill has finally come due.

Of course, now that the low-interest speculative orgy is over; there's bound to be a painful unwind of hyper-inflated assets, falling home prices, tumbling stock markets, increased unemployment, and a generalized credit-contraction throughout the real economy. Ouch. Who said it was going to be easy?

Bernanke's summation:

At present, my baseline outlook involves a period of sluggish growth, followed by a somewhat stronger pace of growth starting later this year as the effects of monetary and fiscal stimulus begin to be felt.... It is important to recognize that downside risks to growth remain, including the possibilities that the housing market or the labor market may deteriorate to an extent beyond that currently anticipated, or that credit conditions may tighten substantially further.

(Editor's translation) "Discount everything I've said here today if the economy blows up – as I fully-expect it will – from decades of regulatory neglect and the myriad multi-trillion dollar Ponzi-schemes which have put the entire financial system at risk of a major heart attack."

Bernanke's candor is admirable, but it is little relief for the people who will have to soldier-on through the hard times ahead. Perhaps, next time he could spare us all the lengthy oratory and just forward a brief cablegram to Congress saying something like this:

"We are deeply sorry, but we have totally fu**ed up your economy with our monetary hanky-panky. You are all in very deep Doo-doo. Prepare for the worst."

Our sincerest regrets,
The Fed

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

There are many who have not closed a home in 6 months and several I have talked to only have 2 months expenses left to live on.

That's just sad. Been down that road before & that shit is scary.

Can you keep talkin stats Ms Tucker... I get a little turned on...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Friend of mine who is a Realtor says they ALL want big-ass ads because they are getting desperate. Realtors have to screen clients now because it's a waste to take someone who thinks their house is still worth $500k.

You look at them and their $500k house, and you say $350k. If they blink, you drive away.


This is step 2 in my 64 step plan to the market normalizing again...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I foresee a future of roving bands of real estate agents, living out of their SUV's, waylaying the unwary traveler.

Actually, this is a very close description of LaPine.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Bernanke's State of the Economy Speech: "You are all Dead Ducks"

That's a real good piece. Thanks!

Anonymous said...

mrs fucker you don't even have to talk RE stats, and you turn me on,

...

Anonymous said...

Think 1932 was concentration camps or gas-chambers for Jews real German considerations?? Hell NO, meat & potatoes, word on the street is bush/cheney declare martial law prior to nov 08.

In years to come, folks will say, how come nobody in the USA knew what what was coming?? They knew what was coming, but they all assumed it didn't apply to them.

***

Martial Law, Concentration Camps, and Fascism: Are These Real Concerns To Americans?
February 18th, 2008

Within the next two to three weeks, Justanothercoverup will be expanding the category “# S 1959, Endgame, Martial Law, DHS, NSA, Fascism” by adding articles from all over the Internet that present varying thoughts on these subjects as well as the best way to survive a declaration of Martial Law. We also plan to offer specific materials, available from this site, that will be a compilation of facts and hypothesis from the leading authorities who have had the courage to speak-up on this issue. There have always been those who are complacent and “believe it could never happen to us,” but a close reading and analysis of Bush’s recent administrative and executive orders seem to speak otherwise, and for those attempting to survive, it will be our mission to provide the best the Internet has to offer in suggestions, methods, and the actual probabilities of what such an action would entail and how it would manifest itself upon the population.

We are taking these steps because we have identified a remarkable trend in the composition of visitors that regularly peruse this site. In the last three (3) months, approximately 80% of our visitors have been looking into Senate Bill S 1959, the Senate’s Sister Bill HR1955, which was passed in the House of Representatives and now is in committee, supposedly awaiting Senate (sic) confirmation. Americans appear to be extremely concerned with this odious Bill, the prospect(s) for Martial Law, Concentration Camps that are rapidly being built and maintained in the continental United States, and the general militarization of corporate and local law enforcement agencies. If we couple those facts with NSA turning their spy satellites on US citizens, the situation appears to becoming worse, not better, and millions of Americans are reading-up on the subject and attempting to gauge the severity of the threat if one actually exists - and unfortunately, Martial Law could easily present itself without warning and at any time, today, next year, or never.

The “Webalizer” program, which is an internal counter program provided by BlueHost indicates that since December of 2007, Justanothercoverup has received 1,723,608 hits which resulted in 245,460 page views conducted by 106,455 visitors. The “AwStats” counter program, also provided by BlueHost indicates that during the same time period, JAC received 1,499,436 Hits which resulted in 212,345 page views by 87,842 visitors. Finally, the StatCounter Program, which is from England, collects a lot of valuable information on where the hits originated from as well as which article the subscriber is reading and how long they visited the site, but doesn’t indicate total number of hits, and the statistics is does count are only those who enter the site with their cookies turned-on; These are the Statcounter statistics for the same time-period: 88,682 Visitors who read 66,675 pages.

If we take the Statcounter figures, which are the lowest of all, that equates to an average of 29,560 average visitors per month for December, January, and I also counted February - which isn’t even over yet! In consideration that many of these articles have been posted on high-traffic sites throughout the Internet, it stands clear that this is a subject that America is interested in and demands information to prove or disprove its existence. The preponderance of the evidence, including contracts awarded to KBR by FEMA indicate that internment camps are being built, however the exact details of DHS’s “EndGame” remain unclear, and as we approach a Presidential election, it is this author’s opinion that these allegations and facts should be a part of the debate process. If S 1959 isn’t made to be a campaign issue, especially in consideration that many aspects of this program are already being implemented LINK, “we the people” are selling ourselves short and electing an individual that could potentially enslave the country just as the Bush administration can now do with the singular stroke of the pen!

This is a matter that affects every American in existence yet despite its seriousness and the general interest of the public, there is still a mainstream news media blackout on the issue which was courageously broken on February the 4th, 2008 by the San Francisco Chronicle when they published the story, “Rule by fear or rule by law?”. Many of us had hoped this “crack in the dam” of the MSM might lead to a flood of news coverage and commentary on S 1959 and the prospects of Martial Law, however, as usual, our cowardly and ineffective MSM stood mute in cowardice as the San Francisco Chronicle gave them a lead-in to a story that the bulk of Americans want to hear - IN GREAT DETAIL! I’m sure the SF Chronicle has noted the huge amount of traffic they have received in regard this subject, something the rest of the MSM should take into consideration!

There is no question or doubt that this is a subject that is arousing the interest of countless millions of Americans. If there wasn’t a press blackout on the issue, maybe it wouldn’t be such a big deal, however, when our own government won’t address the concerns of millions of curious citizens - it then becomes a matter of interest to all who care about the secretive nature in which our government is currently operating under, and has for the past seven years. President Bush and Congress are not passing these measures because they don’t have anything better to do, and to insult us by stating this program is designed to cope with “illegal immigrants” is a slap in the face of any American that has more than an ounce of intelligence! If illegal immigrants were the issue, the southern border would have been secured long ago and the President wouldn’t be attempting to expand the guest-worker program and further allow America’s farm wages to be driven even lower by foreign labor. LINK

We have invested in written as well as electronic materials, and after analyzing and perusing all that’s available we hope to offer a meaningful plan of action if martial law becomes a reality and what you can do to insure your family’s survival in times that will fall well within the meaning of chaos and anarchy. Please keep in mind that a declaration of martial law would likely strip stores bare in a matter of hours and would severely disrupt the service sector, a guarantee that food will not reach the grocer’s shelves for a very long time. President Bush’s Executive Orders have granted the military permission to seize all of your food and water, so it won’t be as easy as stocking-up food, but having the wherewithal to hide it where it can’t be easily found. The situation we face is complicated and could be the result of political instability, a terrorist attack, or a severe natural disaster, all of which Bush has cataloged as “reasons” to declare martial law.

Any author that would like to write on this subject is invited to contact Justanothercoverup and your contribution will be considered, and if it’s appropriate, published with any desired author credits. Contact: administrator@justanothercoverup.com These materials are meant to be provided as a public service, and while it’s understandable some of those referenced materials may be proprietary in nature, they will only be selected for inclusion on this site if they are priced in a manner where it’s relatively easy for anyone to afford. Our survival as a people when faced with fascism or a theocratic version thereof cannot be measured in dollars and cents, and like it or not, it is the poor and lower middle-class who shall suffer the worst, so any reference materials contained herein will have to be relatively inexpensive.

Anonymous said...

S. 1959: Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act of 2007

A bill to establish the National Commission on the Prevention of Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism, and for other purposes.
Overview

Summary

Floor Speeches

Other Info
Introduction

From Congresspedia:
The Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act of 2007 (H.R. 1955/S 1959) was introduced by Rep. Jane Harman (D-California) on April 19, 2007, and scheduled for debate on August 1, 2007. The bill passed the House of Representatives by a 'roll call vote' conducted on October 23, 2007 under a 'rules suspension' subsequently noted by Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) in a Speech to Congress on December 5, 2007 The resolution was next sent to the Senate where it was referred on to the Committee on Homeland Security.[http://homeland.house.gov/ ...

Anonymous said...

Obama “Undecided” on S. 1959

By Jessica Lee

Senator Barack Obama is “undecided” on the Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act (S. 1959), according to a statement released from his Washington, D.C. office.

“Senator Obama has not taken a position on S. 1959. Should the bill be considered by the Homeland Security Committee, he will carefully evaluate it, as he does with all pieces of legislation,” an Obama spokesperson wrote to The Indypendent in a Dec. 13 email.

Obama’s office wanted to clarify his position on this bill after my previous Dec. 10 blog update reported that some constituents receiving email responses from Obama felt that his letter indicated support for the bill. Several people have posted Obama’s email letter on blogs, often adding in their own personal reaction.

ORIGINAL DEC. 10 BLOG UPDATE:

Obama to Support Homegrown Terrorism Bill

By Jessica Lee, The Indypendent

Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama says that he will support the Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act (S. 1959). According to the automatic email responses constituents are receiving from his office, Obama appears to be straddling the fence between preserving civil liberties and being tough on terrorism.

“The American people understand that new threats require flexible responses to keep them safe. They also insist that our responses to threats respect the constitution and do not violate the basic tenets of our democracy,” Obama’s email said. Several people who have written to Obama have posted his response on various blogs, including “Justin” who’s personal blog was picked up on diggs.com.

“I wrote Senator Obama (my senator from Illinois) about this act, which is now in a committee of his (the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs). I asked that he read the bill (not to insult his intelligence, but after the Patriot Act it appears this is a necessary request for most senators), and that he recognize the dire consequences that could result from its vague language,” Justin wrote Dec. 6 below the post of Obama’s email. “He’s quite eloquent, you’ve got to give him that. This act ‘includes provisions prohibiting the Department of Homeland Security’s efforts from violating civil rights and civil liberties of U.S. citizens.’ Didn’t we used to have something like that? What was it called? Oh right… The Constitution.”

The House version of the bill, H.R. 1955, passed Oct. 23 by a vote of 404-6 under the “suspension of the rules,” a provision that is available to quickly pass bills considered “non-controversial.”

Obama is on the 17-member Senate Committee for Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, where S. 1959 was introduced by Senator Susan Collins (R-Maine) Aug. 2. “I will keep your important comments in mind as I work with my colleagues on the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Government Affairs. I will work to ensure that this legislation helps to achieve our domestic security objectives while protecting civil liberties and constitutional rights,” Obama stated in his email to Justin.

Many scholars, historians and civil liberties experts say they fear that the proposed bill will set the stage for future criminal legislation that be used against U.S.-based groups engaged in legal but unpopular political activism, ranging from political Islamists to animal-rights and environmental campaigners to radical right-wing organizations.

“This bill fits the pattern we are seeing coming out of Congress – both Republican and Democratic – of a continued campaign of fear, which gets into heads of Americans that we now need to start criminalizing ideology,” said Alejandro Queral, executive director of the Northwest Constitutional Rights Center. He said he is very concerned about the bill’s vague definitions of “violent radicalization,” “homegrown terrorism,” and the terms within the definitions including “extremist belief system,” “violence” and “force.”

“What is an extremist belief system? Who defines this?” Queral questioned. “Planes flying into the World Trade Center is an extremist belief, but are anti-abortion activists extremists? Are individuals who liberate mink extremists? These are broad definitions that encompass so much, which need to rather be very narrowly tailored. It is criminalizing thought and ideology, rather than criminal activity.”

Jules Boykoff, an assistant professor of politics and government at Pacific University and author of Beyond Bullets: The Suppression of Dissent in the United States, told The Indypendent said he is concerned about how the government is broadening the definition of terrorism.

“Section 802 of the USA PATRIOT Act is a law that created a new brand of terrorists, the ‘domestic terrorist.’ Under this definition, the civil rights work Martin Luther King, Jr. did could have been construed as an act of ‘domestic terrorism,” Boykoff said.

In a Nov. 30 Common Dreams article, ‘Homegrown’ Suppression of Dissent,’ Boykoff provided a historical-based critique of who could be included under the umbrella definition of terrorism. “Even a cursory look backward through U.S. history reveals heroic figures who could be dubbed ‘violent radicals’ or ‘homegrown terrorists’ under the proposed bill, from U.S. revolutionaries like Sam Adams to gun-toting slavery abolitionists like John Brown to militant civil-rights organizers like Malcolm X and Martin Luther King, Jr.”

Kamau Franklin, an attorney with the Center for Constitutional Rights (CCR), also expressed concern that H.R. 1955/S. 1959 will foster a legislative momentum on criminalizing a broad range of dissident voices. “The Commission’s broad mandate can lead to the ability to turn civil disobedience, a form of protest that is centuries old, into a terrorist act,” he said. “My biggest fear is that they [the commission] will call for some new criminal penalties and federal crimes,” says Franklin. “Activists are nervous about how the broad definitions could be used for criminalizing civil disobedience and squashing the momentum of the left.”

“It’s possible that someone who would have been charged with disorderly conduct or obstruction of governmental administration may soon be charged with a federal terrorist statute,” Franklin said.

Many activists and civil liberties advocates have expressed concern across the nation on blogs and radio shows about how the bill’s use of vaguely defined terms can be seen within a historical pattern of sweeping government repression of dissenting voices throughout the history of the United States where citizens have been targeted for their political beliefs. Two generations of Americans experienced first hand the two “Red Scares” (1917-1920 and 1940-50s) and the FBI’s secret Counter Intelligence Program, nicknamed COINTELPRO, which enabled the FBI to “expose, disrupt, misdirect, discredit, or otherwise neutralize” domestic protest groups for “subversive activities” and “potential crimes.”

To many, the similarities between COINTELPRO and the bill are unsettling. The proposed legislation calls for the National Commission to “examine and report upon the facts and causes of violent radicalization, homegrown terrorism and ideologically based violence in the United States” in order to develop policy for “prevention, disruption and mitigation.” This investigation is needed, according to stated Congressional findings, due to possible threats to national security.

The secret program continued until it was discovered COINTELPRO was investigated by a U.S. Senate select committee on intelligence activities (commonly known as the Church Committee) which convened in 1975. The Church Committee found that from 1956 to 1971, “the Bureau conducted a sophisticated vigilante operation aimed squarely at preventing the exercise of First Amendment rights of speech and association, on the theory that preventing the growth of dangerous groups and the propagation of dangerous ideas would protect the national security and deter violence.”

In the last 30 years, significant evidence has surfaced about how the FBI and local law enforcement disrupted non-violent social and political movements, even “neutralizing” individuals through target assassinations. The secret program was vast, with agents monitoring and agitating people involved in the “New Left,” including anti-Vietnam War efforts, the civil rights movement, the Black Panthers, Students for a Democratic Society (SDS), the American Indian Movement, Puerto Rican independence groups, popular musicians and counter-cultural and revolutionary independent newspapers.

OTHER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE VIEWS ON THE BILL

Democratic presidential hopeful Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) said that he believes the proposed bill is unconstitutional.

Speaking to a crowd of supporters in New York City Nov. 29, Kucinich took several questions from the audience, including my question asking why he voted against the bill. Kucinich was one of only six representatives to oppose the bill on Oct. 23.

“If you understand what his bill does, it really sets the stage for further criminalization of protest,” Kucinich said. “This is the way our democracy little, by little, by little, is being stripped away from us. This bill, I believe, is a clear violation of the first amendment.”

Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul was one of the 22 House members not present for the vote.

A small demonstration against S. 1959 took place outside Senator Hillary Clinton’s office in New York City Dec. 10. Her office did not return an Indypendent’s call for comment.

bruce said...

Re: Now bruce right a fucking self-help book, before its too late, mothers all over America will want their unborn children to know your secret.

Get an education, preferably at the foot of someone who knows their ass from a hole in the wall.

And don't spend every fucking penny you make.

As for the young mothers, ah....

I wuv bruce pussy said...

As for the young mothers, ah....

*


Fuck DUMBYA's plan to lock up all wage-earners into a GARZINI prison, I say 24/7 this is all about bruce-pussy, and always has been for his HOLE is WHOLE, and true, and CLEAN in the most MORMRON sense.

Why do pirates and MORMORONS prefer little boyz?? Cuz they don't get pregnant.

bruce said...

Re: S 1959

Here is the text, cut and paste with no cleanup, other than bolding of a few sections:

Text of Legislation
S 1959 IS


110th CONGRESS

1st Session

S. 1959
To establish the National Commission on the Prevention of Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism, and for other purposes.


IN THE SENATE OF THE UNITED STATES


August 2, 2007

Ms. COLLINS (for herself and Mr. COLEMAN) introduced the following bill; which was read twice and referred to the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


A BILL
To establish the National Commission on the Prevention of Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism, and for other purposes.

Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,


SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.

This Act may be cited as the `Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism Prevention Act of 2007'.


SEC. 2. PREVENTION OF VIOLENT RADICALIZATION AND HOMEGROWN TERRORISM.

(a) In General- Title VIII of the Homeland Security Act of 2002 (6 U.S.C. 361 et seq.) is amended by adding at the end the following:


`Subtitle J--Prevention of Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism

`SEC. 899A. DEFINITIONS.

`In this subtitle:

`(1) COMMISSION- The term `Commission' means the National Commission on the Prevention of Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism established under section 899C.

`(2) VIOLENT RADICALIZATION- The term `violent radicalization' means the process of adopting or promoting an extremist belief system for the purpose of facilitating ideologically based violence to advance political, religious, or social change.

`(3) HOMEGROWN TERRORISM- The term `homegrown terrorism' means the use, planned use, or threatened use, of force or violence by a group or individual born, raised, or based and operating primarily within the United States or any possession of the United States to intimidate or coerce the United States government, the civilian population of the United States, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of political or social objectives.

`(4) IDEOLOGICALLY BASED VIOLENCE- The term `ideologically based violence' means the use, planned use, or threatened use of force or violence by a group or individual to promote the group or individual's political, religious, or social beliefs.


`SEC. 899B. FINDINGS.

`The Congress finds the following:

`(1) The development and implementation of methods and processes that can be used to prevent violent radicalization, homegrown terrorism, and ideologically based violence in the United States is critical to combating domestic terrorism.

`(2) The promotion of violent radicalization, homegrown terrorism, and ideologically based violence exists in the United States and poses a threat to homeland security.

`(3) The Internet has aided in facilitating violent radicalization, ideologically based violence, and the homegrown terrorism process in the United States by providing access to broad and constant streams of terrorist-related propaganda to United States citizens.

`(4) While the United States must continue its vigilant efforts to combat international terrorism, it must also strengthen efforts to combat the threat posed by homegrown terrorists based and operating within the United States.

`(5) Understanding the motivational factors that lead to violent radicalization, homegrown terrorism, and ideologically based violence is a vital step toward eradicating these threats in the United States.

`(6) The potential rise of self radicalized, unaffiliated terrorists domestically cannot be easily prevented through traditional Federal intelligence or law enforcement efforts, and requires the incorporation of State and local solutions.

`(7) Individuals prone to violent radicalization, homegrown terrorism, and ideologically based violence span all races, ethnicities, and religious beliefs, and individuals should not be targeted based solely on race, ethnicity, or religion.

`(8) Any measure taken to prevent violent radicalization, homegrown terrorism, and ideologically based violence and homegrown terrorism in the United States should not violate the constitutional rights, civil rights, or civil liberties of United States citizens and lawful permanent residents.

`(9) Certain governments, including the Government of the United Kingdom, the Government of Canada, and the Government of Australia have significant experience with homegrown terrorism and the United States can benefit from lessons learned by those nations.


`SEC. 899C. NATIONAL COMMISSION ON THE PREVENTION OF VIOLENT RADICALIZATION AND IDEOLOGICALLY BASED VIOLENCE.

`(a) Establishment- There is established within the legislative branch of the Government the National Commission on the Prevention of Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism.

`(b) Purpose- The purposes of the Commission are the following:

`(1) Examine and report upon the facts and causes of violent radicalization, homegrown terrorism, and ideologically based violence in the United States, including United States connections to non-United States persons and networks, violent radicalization, homegrown terrorism, and ideologically based violence in prison, individual or `lone wolf' violent radicalization, homegrown terrorism, and ideologically based violence, and other faces of the phenomena of violent radicalization, homegrown terrorism, and ideologically based violence that the Commission considers important.

`(2) The Commission shall, in cooperation with the Department, the Department of State, and other Federal departments and agencies, as appropriate, conduct a survey of methodologies implemented by foreign nations to prevent violent radicalization and homegrown terrorism in their respective nations.

`(3) Build upon and bring together the work of other entities and avoid unnecessary duplication, by reviewing the findings, conclusions, and recommendations of--

`(A) the Center of Excellence established or designated under section 899D, and other academic work, as appropriate;

`(B) Federal, State, local, or tribal government studies of, reviews of, and experiences with violent radicalization, homegrown terrorism, and ideologically based violence; and

`(C) foreign government studies of, reviews of, and experiences with violent radicalization, homegrown terrorism, and ideologically based violence.

`(c) Composition of Commission- The Commission shall be composed of 12 members appointed for the life of the Commission, of whom--

`(1) 2 members shall be appointed by the President from among officers or employees of the executive branch and private citizens of the United States;

`(2) 2 members shall be appointed by the majority leader of the Senate;

`(3) 1 member shall be appointed by the minority leader of the Senate;

`(4) 2 members shall be appointed by the Speaker of the House of Representatives;

`(5) 1 member shall be appointed by the minority leader of the House of Representatives;

`(6) 1 member shall be appointed by the Chairman of the Committee on Homeland Security of the House of Representatives;

`(7) 1 member shall be appointed by the ranking minority member of the Committee on Homeland Security of the House of Representatives;

`(8) 1 member shall be appointed by the Chairman of the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs of the Senate; and

`(9) 1 member shall be appointed by the ranking minority member of the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs of the Senate.

`(d) Chair and Vice Chair- The Commission shall elect a Chair and a Vice Chair from among its members.

`(e) Qualifications-

`(1) IN GENERAL- Individuals shall be selected for appointment to the Commission solely on the basis of their professional qualifications, achievements, public stature, experience, and expertise in relevant fields, including behavioral science, constitutional law, corrections, counterterrorism, cultural anthropology, education, information technology, intelligence, juvenile justice, local law enforcement, organized crime, Islam and other world religions, sociology, or terrorism.

`(2) LIMITATION- Not more than 6 members of the Commission shall be from the same political party.

`(f) Deadline for Appointment- All members of the Commission shall be appointed not later than 60 days after the date of enactment of this subtitle.

`(g) Quorum and Meetings- The Commission shall meet and begin the operations of the Commission not later than 30 days after the date on which all members have been appointed or, if such meeting cannot be mutually agreed upon, on a date designated by the Speaker of the House of Representatives. Each subsequent meeting shall occur upon the call of the Chair or a majority of its members. A majority of the members of the Commission shall constitute a quorum, but a lesser number may hold meetings.

`(h) Powers of Commission-

`(1) IN GENERAL-

`(A) HEARINGS AND EVIDENCE- The Commission or, on the authority of the Commission, any subcommittee or member thereof, may, for the purpose of carrying out this section, hold hearings and sit and act at such times and places, take such testimony, receive such evidence, and administer such oaths as the Commission considers advisable to carry out its duties.

`(B) CONTRACTING- The Commission may, to such extent and in such amounts as are provided in appropriation Acts, enter into contracts to enable the Commission to discharge its duties under this section.

`(2) INFORMATION FROM FEDERAL AGENCIES-

`(A) IN GENERAL- The Commission may secure directly from any executive department, bureau, agency, board, commission, office, independent establishment, or instrumentality of the Government, information (including classified information), suggestions, estimates, and statistics for the purposes of this section. The head of each such department, bureau, agency, board, commission, office, independent establishment, or instrumentality shall, to the extent authorized by law, furnish such information, suggestions, estimates, and statistics directly to the Commission, upon request made by the Chair of the Commission, by the chair of any subcommittee created by a majority of the Commission, or by any member designated by a majority of the Commission.

`(B) RECEIPT, HANDLING, STORAGE, AND DISSEMINATION- Information shall only be received, handled, stored, and disseminated by members of the Commission and its staff consistent with all applicable statutes, regulations, and Executive orders.

`(i) Assistance From Federal Agencies-

`(1) GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION- The Administrator of General Services shall provide to the Commission on a reimbursable basis administrative support and other services for the performance of the Commission's functions.

`(2) OTHER DEPARTMENTS AND AGENCIES- In addition to the assistance required under paragraph (1), a Federal department or agency may provide to the Commission such services, funds, facilities, and staff as they may determine advisable and as may be authorized by law.

`(j) Postal Services- The Commission may use the United States mails in the same manner and under the same conditions as departments and agencies of the United States.

`(k) Nonapplicability of Federal Advisory Committee Act- The Federal Advisory Committee Act (5 U.S.C. App.) shall not apply to the Commission.

`(l) Public Meetings-

`(1) IN GENERAL- The Commission shall hold public hearings and meetings to the extent appropriate.

`(2) PROTECTION OF INFORMATION- Any public hearings of the Commission shall be conducted in a manner consistent with the protection of information provided to or developed for or by the Commission as required by any applicable statute, regulation, or Executive order.

`(m) Staff of Commission-

`(1) APPOINTMENT AND COMPENSATION- The Chair of the Commission, in consultation with the Vice Chair and in accordance with rules adopted by the Commission, may appoint and fix the compensation of a staff director and such other personnel as may be necessary to enable the Commission to carry out its functions, without regard to the provisions of title 5, United States Code, governing appointments in the competitive service, and without regard to the provisions of chapter 51 and subchapter III of chapter 53 of such title relating to classification and General Schedule pay rates, except that no rate of pay fixed under this subsection may exceed the maximum rate of pay for GS-15 under the General Schedule.

`(2) STAFF EXPERTISE- Individuals shall be selected for appointment as staff of the Commission on the basis of their expertise in one or more of the fields described in subsection (e)(1).

`(3) PERSONNEL AS FEDERAL EMPLOYEES-

`(A) IN GENERAL- The executive director and any employee of the Commission shall be employees under section 2105 of title 5, United States Code, for purposes of chapters 63, 81, 83, 84, 85, 87, 89, and 90 of that title.

`(B) MEMBERS OF COMMISSION- Subparagraph (A) shall not be construed to apply to members of the Commission.

`(4) DETAILEES- Any Federal employee may be detailed to the Commission without reimbursement from the Commission, and during such detail shall retain the rights, status, and privileges of the regular employment of such employee without interruption.

`(5) CONSULTANT SERVICES- The Commission may procure the services of experts and consultants in accordance with section 3109 of title 5, United States Code, at rates not to exceed the daily rate paid a person occupying a position at level IV of the Executive Schedule under section 5315 of title 5, United States Code.

`(6) EMPHASIS ON SECURITY CLEARANCES- The Commission shall make it a priority to hire as employees and retain as contractors and detailees individuals otherwise authorized by this section who have active security clearances.

`(n) Commission Personnel Matters-

`(1) COMPENSATION OF MEMBERS- Each member of the Commission who is not an employee of the Government shall be compensated at a rate not to exceed the daily equivalent of the annual rate of basic pay in effect for a position at level IV of the Executive Schedule under section 5315 of title 5, United States Code, for each day during which that member is engaged in the actual performance of the duties of the Commission.

`(2) TRAVEL EXPENSES- While away from their homes or regular places of business in the performance of services for the Commission, members of the Commission shall be allowed travel expenses, including per diem in lieu of subsistence, at rates authorized for employees of agencies under subchapter I of chapter 57 of title 5, United States Code, while away from their homes or regular places of business in the performance of services for the Commission.

`(3) TREATMENT OF SERVICE FOR PURPOSES OF RETIREMENT BENEFITS- A member of the Commission who is an annuitant otherwise covered by section 8344 or 8468 of title 5, United States Code, by reason of membership on the Commission shall not be subject to the provisions of such section with respect to membership on the Commission.

`(4) VACANCIES- A vacancy on the Commission shall not affect its powers and shall be filled in the manner in which the original appointment was made. The appointment of the replacement member shall be made not later than 60 days after the date on which the vacancy occurs.

`(o) Security Clearances- The heads of appropriate departments and agencies of the executive branch shall cooperate with the Commission to expeditiously provide Commission members and staff with appropriate security clearances, to the extent possible under applicable procedures and requirements.

`(p) Reports-

`(1) FINAL REPORT-

`(A) IN GENERAL- Not later than 18 months after the date on which the Commission first meets, the Commission shall submit to the President and Congress a final report including--

`(i) its findings and conclusions;

`(ii) legislative recommendations for--

`(I) immediate and long-term countermeasures to violent radicalization, homegrown terrorism, and ideologically based violence; and

`(II) measures that can be taken to prevent violent radicalization, homegrown terrorism, and ideologically based violence from developing and spreading within the United States; and

`(iii) any final recommendations for any additional grant programs to support these purposes.

`(B) ANNEX- The report submitted under subparagraph (A) may include a classified annex.

`(2) INTERIM REPORTS- The Commission shall submit to the President and Congress--

`(A) by not later than 6 months after the date on which the Commission first meets, a first interim report on--

`(i) its findings and conclusions and legislative recommendations for the purposes described in paragraph (1)(A); and

`(ii) its recommendations on the feasibility of a grant program established and administered by the Secretary for the purpose of preventing, disrupting, and mitigating the effects of violent radicalization, homegrown terrorism, and ideologically based violence and, if such a program is feasible, recommendations on how grant funds should be used and administered; and

`(B) by not later than 6 months after the date on which the Commission submits the interim report under subparagraph (A), a second interim report on the matters described in that subparagraph.

`(3) INDIVIDUAL OR DISSENTING VIEWS- Each member of the Commission may include in each report under this subsection the individual additional or dissenting views of the member.

`(4) PUBLIC AVAILABILITY- The Commission shall release a public version of each report required under this subsection.

`(q) Availability of Funding- Amounts made available to the Commission to carry out this section shall remain available until the earlier of the expenditure of the amounts or the termination of the Commission.

`(r) Termination of Commission- The Commission shall terminate 30 days after the date on which the Commission submits its final report under subsection (p).


`SEC. 899D. CENTER OF EXCELLENCE FOR THE STUDY OF VIOLENT RADICALIZATION AND HOMEGROWN TERRORISM IN THE UNITED STATES.

`(a) Establishment-

`(1) IN GENERAL- The Secretary shall establish or designate a university-based Center of Excellence for the Study of Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism in the United States (in this section referred to as the `Center') using merit-review processes and procedures and other limitations established for designating university-based centers for homeland security under section 308(b)(2)(B). The Center shall assist homeland security officials of Federal, State, local, and tribal governments through training, education, and research in preventing violent radicalization and homegrown terrorism in the United States.

`(2) USE OF EXISTING CENTERS- In carrying out this section, the Secretary may create a new Center designed exclusively for the purpose described in subsection (b) or identify and expand a university-based center for homeland security of the Department in existence on the date of enactment of this subtitle by designating a working group within that center to achieve the purpose described in subsection (b).

`(b) Purpose- It shall be the purpose of the Center to study the social, criminal, political, psychological, and economic roots of violent radicalization and homegrown terrorism in the United States and methods that can be used by homeland security officials of Federal, State, local, and tribal governments to mitigate violent radicalization and homegrown terrorism.

`(c) Activities- In carrying out this section, the Center shall--

`(1) contribute to the establishment of training, written materials, information, analytical assistance and professional resources to aid in combating violent radicalization and homegrown terrorism;

`(2) use theories, methods and data from the social and behavioral sciences to better understand the origins, dynamics, and social and psychological aspects of violent radicalization and homegrown terrorism;

`(3) conduct research on the motivational factors that lead to violent radicalization and homegrown terrorism; and

`(4) coordinate with other academic institutions studying the effects of violent radicalization and homegrown terrorism, where appropriate.


`SEC. 899E. PROTECTING CIVIL RIGHTS AND CIVIL LIBERTIES WHILE PREVENTING IDEOLOGICALLY BASED VIOLENCE AND HOMEGROWN TERRORISM.

`(a) In General- In carrying out this subtitle, the Secretary shall ensure that the efforts of the Department to prevent ideologically based violence and homegrown terrorism as described in this subtitle do not violate the constitutional rights, civil rights, and civil liberties of United States citizens and lawful permanent residents.

`(b) Commitment to Racial Neutrality- The Secretary shall ensure that the activities and operations of the entities created by this subtitle are in compliance with the commitment of the Department to racial neutrality.

`(c) Auditing Mechanism- The Civil Rights and Civil Liberties Officer of the Department shall develop and implement an auditing mechanism to ensure that compliance with this subtitle does not result in a disproportionate impact, without a rational basis, on any particular race, ethnicity, or religion and include the results of its audit in its annual report to Congress required under section 705.'.

(b) Clerical Amendment- The table of contents in section 1(b) of such Act is amended by inserting after the item relating to section 899 the following:


`Subtitle J--Prevention of Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism

`Sec. 899A. Definitions.

`Sec. 899B. Findings.

`Sec. 899C. National Commission on the Prevention of Violent Radicalization and Ideologically Based Violence.

`Sec. 899D. Center of Excellence for the Study of Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism in the United States.

`Sec. 899E.

bruce said...

Re:
Fuck DUMBYA's plan to lock up all wage-earners into a GARZINI prison, I say 24/7 this is all about bruce-pussy, and always has been for his HOLE is WHOLE, and true, and CLEAN in the most MORMRON sense.

Why do pirates and MORMORONS prefer little boyz?? Cuz they don't get pregnant.


You sound like you know a whole lot more about little boys than I do ;)

Now MILF's....

Besides, fuck the Mormon bullshit. I left Utah because I hate fucking Mormon's when they get together in packs. One on one, OK, three or more, hide your beer and money. So lay off the stupid Mormon shit. I'm from fucking northern Wisconsin, not Utah.

Anonymous said...

`(3) The Internet has aided in facilitating violent radicalization, ideologically based violence, and the homegrown terrorism process in the United States by providing access to broad and constant streams of terrorist-related propaganda to United States citizens.

*

Over on the SORE, where AARON Swishler fucks pigs when he's not running his press they say "America love it or leave, and their proof of freedom, is OUR freedom to hand our selves on the 'internet'.

Long ago, I predicted that the internet would devolve into "WRITE YOUR OWN DOSSIER", who needs mormorons to enter intelligence reports when the mass enter their bio on facebook?

The freedom and internet are oxymorons, very soon 'real' press will once again return to secret press.

Anonymous said...

Bruce, you'll always be a MORMRON, you can't have spent an hour there not have been infected

Anonymous said...

(6) EMPHASIS ON SECURITY CLEARANCES- The Commission shall make it a priority to hire as employees and retain as contractors and detailees individuals otherwise authorized by this section who have active security clearances.

*

You CAN NOT OBTAIN a 'security clearance', unless you are DUMBYA BIBLE thumper. Thus they might as well say that it is a priority to higher JEEUBUS thumpers.

Anonymous said...

`(5) Understanding the motivational factors that lead to violent radicalization, homegrown terrorism, and ideologically based violence is a vital step toward eradicating these threats in the United States.

*

The essence of government is beating, killing, and imprisoning.

Motivational factors opposed to the status quo, above mentioned are ideological terrorists.

I love the term 'eradication' that means ROUNDUP, CROSSBOX, DDT, AGENT-ORANGE.

America, "LOVE IT OR LEAVE IT", but leaving it means leaving by COFFIN.

Anonymous said...

I'm confused this is a housing blog. Why do we care if a few 100k of Oregonians are 'eradicated' in order to preserve our way of life ( Real Estate Sales ).


Let's stay focussed on making money. So what if BUSH kills 60M jews, who would care??

bruce said...

Re: Bruce, you'll always be a MORMRON, you can't have spent an hour there not have been infected

When one of the brethren fucks you for a few hundred thousand, yes you can not be infected...

bruce said...

On the CC meeting: LS building looks as good as we will get, Sonia is worried about money (some real "choices" will have to be made if we don't sell any JR land next year) and the dickhead John Russell simply brushed me off with a "no" when I asked him how we were planning on paying for the roads/sewers/etc. for the 50 acres we were planning on selling if all the money from that acreage was going to pay for the current shit that we are building.

Got a honey that wants cuddling, so no more crap from me tonight..

Anonymous said...

When one of the brethren fucks you for a few hundred thousand, yes you can not be infected...

*

Ok, maybe you have a point, I would blame the courts, or the person who filed the complaint ( YOU ), but why blame the MORMRON church for your loss of a couple 100K??

Even in ORYGUN if you file a claim in State court and your 99% in the legal right, you still only have a 1% chance of winning the case which means you pay ALL legal costs. This is how our legal system works.

Anonymous said...

Got a honey that wants cuddling, so no more crap from me tonight..

*

Bruce, you told me you wouldn't keep our private life, private?

links stinks said...

]

NY Times, Feb. 21: MORE AMERICANS GIVING UP GOLF

bruce said...

Just posted an update on last nights CC meeting at juniper-ridge-info.blogspot.com

Some of the things being discussed just don't make sense to my grapefruit-sized brain...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

80 losing jobs at Bright Wood
Layoffs amount to 16 percent of work force; company attributes cuts to housing market

By Lauren Dake / The Bulletin
Published: February 21. 2008 4:00AM PST

MADRAS — For the second time in just more than a year, Madras-based Bright Wood Corp. has laid off more than 10 percent of its work force.

Around 180 out of 1,130 employees, working mainly in manufacturing and administrative positions, will be let go, said Bright Wood President Dallas Stovall. The layoffs started Monday and should be completed by the end of the week. The cuts amount to about 16 percent of the staff.

“You hate doing this, and we put it off as long as we could,” Stovall said. “But pretty soon you look at the financials and if you don’t do something now, you’re going to bleed the company.”

Stovall said the decision was a result of the soft housing market. The remanufacturing company makes a range of wood components, including door frames and window casings. The company’s slowdown started last month, and it tried to compensate by reducing staff hours.

“It became apparent from all our customers that it was going to remain flat and the entire year was going to be a reflection of around 20 to 30 percent volume reduction,” he said. “We can’t afford to speculate by increasing inventory to keep people working, so we made the decision to lay off.”

The national housing slowdown also hit Prineville wood products manufacturer Contact Industries, which eliminated 55 employees, or 11 percent of its work force, last month. The company — which makes door, window and furniture components primarily used in new-home construction — saw a steep drop in orders from the nation’s housing industry last year and also didn’t see any near-term turnaround.

Bright Wood’s cuts are a tough hit for Jefferson County. The opening of the 1,223-bed, medium-security portion of the Deer Ridge Correctional Institution was recently postponed indefinitely, delaying the arrival of new jobs.

Also, the Culver operation of boat manufacturing company Seaswirl Boats Inc. closed last spring, eliminating around 170 jobs.

Jefferson County last year lost 330 manufacturing jobs, a 20.1 percent drop for the sector. The county averaged 7 percent unemployment in 2007, up from 5.7 percent in 2006, the highest in Central Oregon.

Last year was the first time in Bright Wood’s 47-year history that it had a large-scale layoff. Around 140 employees were let go.

Bright Wood remains one of Central Oregon’s largest private employers, according to Eric Strobel, business development manager at Economic Development for Central Oregon, a nonprofit group that works to attract and support businesses in the region. Bright Wood trails only Cascade Healthcare Community and Les Schwab Tire Centers in employee count.

After the cuts, Bright Wood, which has plants in Redmond and Madras, will have around 950 employees. The majority of the cuts will be made in the Madras facility, but some are occurring in Redmond. None of the employees will receive severance packages.

The company also has roughly 10 employees in Bend, all of whom will keep their jobs.

After the first cuts a year ago, nearly everyone was hired back, said Stovall. This time around, he’s not sure if the layoffs will be permanent or seasonal.

“Hopefully, for the bulk of people, it will be temporary,” he said. “But I have no doubt some permanent positions will be eliminated.”

Stovall said the layoffs have nothing to do with overhiring. Only a few months ago, he said, business was better.

“At the time business supported it,” Stovall said. “If you look at the market, we were fairly strong all last year. ... Almost every mill operating right now is on reduced hours and you can only do that for so long, and you have to stop putting wood in inventory and let people take advantage of unemployment.”

Strobel, with EDCO, said he’s not surprised to hear Bright Wood is slimming down.

“It’s a cyclical thing, and hopefully it will be taken care of down the road here,” Strobel said.

He added that manufacturing creates the largest total payroll in Jefferson County.

“And a lot of that is Bright Wood,” he said.

Bright Wood also has a plant in New Zealand, where employees are on reduced hours. The company also sells wood products in Asia and Europe.

It was two years ago that Bright Wood idled its Bend manufacturing operations and moved 131 jobs to its plants in Redmond and Madras.

Stovall hopes this is the end of the cuts, but he can’t make any guarantees.

“By the end of this week we should be done with cuts,” Stovall said. “We’ll see how the market is; it’s one of those things that is very difficult to predict.”

Lauren Dake can be reached at 419-8074 or at ldake@bendbulletin.com

Anonymous said...

\\|//

Area tourism feeling a pinch
By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin
Published: February 21. 2008 4:00AM PST

Skiers and snowboarders flocked to Central Oregon over Presidents Day weekend, but the business boost was short-term relief in a so-so winter for many businesses that rely on visitors, industry representatives said Wednesday, expressing nervousness about the future.

Benefiting from clear roads, ample snow and sunny days, Hoodoo Mountain Resort broke attendance records over the holiday weekend, and Mt. Bachelor ski area saw more visitors and spending. But local lodging properties and restaurants are feeling the pinch of a cooling national economy.

A slow December and January at many area lodging properties could bode ill for the region’s $498 million-a-year tourism economy, according to Alana Audette, president and CEO of Central Oregon Visitors Association, which promotes the region’s tourism industry.

“Overall, we’re still getting that sense that people are just belt-tightening a bit,” she said. “People are getting more wary about making those vacation plans. Advance reservations for spring are off, and the summer also is showing signs of slowing. It’s making us real nervous.”

Business has dropped between 15 percent and 20 percent the past 2½ months at Merenda Restaurant and Wine Bar in downtown Bend, said Jody Denton, chef and owner. He said the slowdown has affected many restaurants and retail businesses around town. Denton also is chef and owner of Deep, which opened downtown in June.

“I don’t think anybody’s immune,” Denton said. “I thought Bend would dodge the bullet until December and January, but it’s definitely trickled down.”

Bend’s cold housing industry has played a large role in slower business at Merenda and Deep, Denton said.

“We have nearly the same number of people coming through the door, but how much each person is spending has changed. People are watching their pennies,” Denton said.

Concerns are spread evenly throughout the tourism industry, which includes retail, restaurants, lodging properties and other support businesses that cater to out-of-town visitors, Audette said.

The region got too little snow in December and too much snow in January, which added up to more hazardous traveling conditions over mountain passes, she said.

“It was too much of a good thing,” Audette said.

Anecdotal evidence suggests Central Oregon’s resort properties, condominiums and vacation homes have fared the same or just slightly better this winter than they did last year, Audette said, but hotels and motels in Bend and Redmond are down. Audette says hotel/motel customers tend to be spontaneous travelers who this winter were forgoing a last-minute weekend vacation.

In Bend alone, room-tax collections, which can be used as a measure of out-of-town visitors, dropped almost 10 percent in December 2007 from December 2006, according to COVA.

But unincorporated Deschutes County, which holds many of the area’s destination resorts, posted a December tax-collection increase of 5.7 percent over December 2006, according to COVA.

“Fewer people were traveling and those who did were more of a destination visitor,” Audette said. “Those people usually are coming for a longer stay and are making plans farther out.”

A bright spot


Mt. Bachelor saw a 14 percent jump in revenues over the weekend and an 8 percent increase in ski and snowboard visitors compared with a year ago, said Carly Carmichael, marketing director.

“It was the first solid, sunny weekend we’ve had since we opened,” Carmichael said. “We had big crowds on the weekend.”

On Santiam Pass west of Sisters, Hoodoo CEO Chuck Shep-ard reported “the best three-day weekend we’ve ever had. We had excellent snow and excellent weather throughout Presidents Day weekend. It couldn’t have been better.”

Hoodoo hosted about 6,000 visitors over the weekend, besting its previous all-time record for a three-day weekend by 30 percent, Shepard said.

After a slow start to the season, Hoodoo had 15 percent visitor growth in January and has had between 10 percent and 15 percent increase so far in February, Shepard said.

Despite the influx of skiers and snowboarders into the area, local lodging properties did not report a huge spike in business, said Diane Wilcox, general manager of Mt. Bachelor Village Resort west of Bend.

That’s because the supply of available hotel and motel rooms, resort properties, condominiums and vacation homes has grown steadily this decade, Wilcox said.

More visitors to Central Oregon own second homes due to the region’s housing boom that lasted through 2006, she said.

“So many people came to Bend and loved it so much that they bought property and became owners,” Wilcox said. “Instead of renting units or staying in hotels, they are staying in their own homes or condominiums.”

The national economic downturn has not hurt bookings this winter at the Fairfield Inn & Suites by Marriott, said Amy Reynolds, general manager. The hotel’s winter travel consists largely of business travelers, who typically travel regardless of the economy.

Summer travel could see a larger share of leisure travelers who would otherwise take their families to Disneyland or elsewhere out-of-state during better economic times, said Reynolds, also a board member for the Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau, which markets tourism for the city of Bend.

“When the economy gets down, people who would typically fly somewhere out-of-state can drive here,” Reynolds said. “Our drive market is huge anyway.”

Efforts to attract more regional, West Coast travelers already are under way, said COVA’s Audette.

Tourism resources planned for a national audience will be redirected to the West Coast, Audette said.

“We’ll start to investigate markets that are closer to home and more affordable for travelers,” Audette said. “It’s going to get very competitive for tourism dollars. Targeted marketing becomes imperative.”

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Business has dropped between 15 percent and 20 percent the past 2½ months at Merenda Restaurant and Wine Bar in downtown Bend, said Jody Denton, chef and owner. He said the slowdown has affected many restaurants and retail businesses around town. Denton also is chef and owner of Deep, which opened downtown in June.

I thought this was the interesting stat in this piece. These sorts of "trophy" destination places are supposed to be The New Bend. Bend, Inc. The New Aspen.

Notcie how Merenda was down harder than anything else quoted in the piece.

Anonymous said...

A slow December and January at many area lodging properties could bode ill for the region’s $498 million-a-year tourism economy, according to Alana Audette, president and CEO of Central Oregon Visitors Association, which promotes the region’s tourism industry. { COVA is paid for with taxpayer dollars }

*

When the fuck is this figure going to get modified?

The magic number, in the Bend area is 1/2 Billion dollars of tourist revenue that never changes, and anyone that questions the number is a lunatic.

The number has been used unquestionably for years. It's time that a number for county and city be graphed, and monitored monthly so we can all see the actual trends.

My personal guess is that TOURISM is NO longer a majority economical force, and only the PR&MARKETING interests are trying to KEEP THEIR JOB.

Let's be honest, and its NOT in this artical, and has been printed as of late, "WE FUCK OUR TOURISTS", and BORE them to death, they come once, and everyone has came here once, and yes the ones that came more than once bought a CONDO, cuz that was always the game-plan, now they can't sell the condo, and are bored to death with this place.

It's OVER, TOURISM is NOT the basis of our economy.

Anonymous said...

homer,

Merenda was dying two years ago too big, and that's why jody opened the DEEP smaller place, bigger tickets,

Now that merenda is always empty, it just accelerates the 2yr trend, their peak was 2004, by 2005 they were slowing down, I remember talking to the manager there in 2005 @ deschutes, and he told me they had over 80 employees, and were going crazy, that was when jody started working on the DEEP.

Merenda will sell, and the space will get broken up. This is actually an old story, but the decline of Merenda is now accelerating. What do they do?? Most like a 5,10,15 yr lease??

Who in the fuck is going to pick up the lease?? What works in Bend is small places, those cavernous eateries just don't work, especially given that the BUZZ wears off after 1-2 years.

The first year Merenda was open it was incredible, now its mediocre.

Add Merenda to your tombstone, but you'll need a new entry called failed businesses, or walk-away leases, ... I think that's what you'll see a whole lot is folks walking away from these 10+yr triple-net leases, most are done as a LLC, walkaway broke, and say "SUE ME". These guys are mostly renters that showed up here post 2002, and put ALL their money into equipment, to become the NEXT Gastronomical Aspen ( 2004 ). By 2005 it was over, now its DEAD.

Anonymous said...

Yep, the fastest way to lose a fortune in BEND is build a golf-course, or BUY a crap-shack near golf course.

***

The problem was not a game of golf. It was the game of golf itself.

Over the past decade, the leisure activity most closely associated with corporate success in America has been in a kind of recession.

The total number of people who play has declined or remained flat each year since 2000, dropping to about 26 million from 30 million, according to the National Golf Foundation and the Sporting Goods Manufacturers Association.

More troubling to golf boosters, the number of people who play 25 times a year or more fell to 4.6 million in 2005 from 6.9 million in 2000, a loss of about a third.

The industry now counts its core players as those who golf eight or more times a year. That number, too, has fallen, but more slowly: to 15 million in 2006 from 17.7 million in 2000, according to the National Golf Foundation.

Anonymous said...

Let's see the summary for today.

Tourism is dead, we know that, we fuck our tourists they don't come back, its well established that MT-B now sucks. It's well established that GOLF is DEAD. Thus summer/winter tourism in BEND is now DEAD.

Manufacturing layoffs are well documented in the area.

Restaurants are imploding, because their customers can no longer dine out on HELOC.

It's NOT the housing or prices, or RE that will kill Bend, it will be the loss of jobs, ... we're already over 10% real un-employment which means DEPRESSION.

***

Homer, read the NEW SORE this week, there is an article about COBA telling city-hall to slow down, and that the racket was over, but note they also make fun of the fact that COBA told advertisers to threaten the media if they didn't run the 'best deal in 20 year' Press-Release.

What is BEND? Where are we going? Who is running the show? Is it only about paying the KURATEKS off to go away??

Anonymous said...

Duncan asks "WHY DID the Super-Burrito" building deal fold?? Here is why, cuz the WALMART/DESERTSCAPE empire fell apart.

Read the part about 'investors flocking', stupid rich people handing money out like candy in 2005 to be part of the BEND COMMERICIAL RE BUBBLE. This is why all downtown will become a plywood ghost town, note that DESERT-SCAPE has a 1/2 dozen downtown projects in limbo, including the empty lot eyesore's, where they tore down nice old buildings and then stopped the project.
***

[October 16, 2006]

Red flags at U.S. Bank

(Oregonian (Portland, OR) (KRT) Via Thomson Dialog NewsEdge) Oct. 15--In his day job, David Shelofsky hunted bank fraud.

The onetime small-town cop chased bad-check writers and credit-card thieves to recover money stolen from U.S. Bank, ex-colleagues say.

On the side, the West Linn resident developed real estate. He and partners sank more than $20 million into prime commercial and resort properties, mostly in and around Bend, land records show. Earlier this year, they sold land in Redmond to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. for $10 million.


On Friday, federal officials alleged what several co-workers had long suspected: He was actually defrauding the bank by pocketing some of the recovered assets while building a development empire on his modest bank salary.

The U.S. attorney's office said Shelofsky, 38, intends to plead guilty in coming weeks to embezzling money from the bank, according to a filing in U.S. District Court in Portland on Friday. Federal attorneys believe Shelofsky, an investigative recovery manager, took the money between 2002 and 2005.


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Federal authorities declined to describe the case against Shelofsky or say whether his alleged embezzlement and property development were connected. They also declined to reveal the amount of his alleged fraud.

But in an Oregon civil rights complaint, a co-worker has accused Shelofsky of "possibly embezzling millions of dollars" from Oregon's largest bank.

An examination of the case by The Oregonian raises deeper questions about U.S. Bank's internal controls and policing of employee theft since its 1997 purchase by First Bank System of Minneapolis.

Former workers say that, following the merger, the bank got rid of a seasoned investigative unit dedicated exclusively to internal fraud. They say bank managers also failed to properly oversee the money and property recovered by Shelofsky and repeatedly ignored red flags raised by co-workers.

"They would rather let an employee retire or quit than investigate and prosecute," said Ron Schanaker, who headed the bank's former internal investigative unit before leaving shortly after the merger. "They definitely had a small bank mentality."

In 1999, the bank discovered a loan fraud scheme that involved at least one senior manager and cost millions, according to a former investigator and depositions in a wrongful termination lawsuit, later settled.

To some who worked with Shelofsky, his plan to plead guilty comes as little surprise. Two former U.S. Bank investigators say they raised concerns about Shelofsky's honesty with bank managers shortly after he was hired in 1997. In 1999, co-workers recommended that the bank keep better tabs on the assets he recovered, according to depositions in the lawsuit.

In the civil-rights complaint to the Oregon Bureau of Labor and Industries in May, longtime fraud investigator Deborah Anderson alleged Shelofsky gave gifts to co-workers to keep his activities quiet and claims the bank discriminated against her, in part, for reporting her suspicions to the FBI.

On Friday, U.S. Bancorp spokeswoman Teri Charest said Shelofsky no longer works for the bank. But she declined via e-mail to answer further questions about the case. But she noted that "at no time were customer accounts or funds ever at risk."

Charest also declined comment on matters that took place before 2001, when Firstar Corp. bought U.S. Bancorp and ushered in new management.

In a July filing with the labor bureau, the bank denied retaliating against Anderson, saying she never told managers of her suspicions.

Anderson and her attorney both declined to comment.

Shelofsky, reached by phone June 12, called Anderson "a very volatile person." He has not returned calls since. His attorney, Stephen Houze, said he expects the matter "will proceed by plea agreement" but said one had not been signed. He declined further comment.

Those who know Shelofsky describe him as energetic and athletic, with an aggressive but likeable personality.

"He's got really good people skills," said Doug Knight, one of Shelofsky's development partners in Bend. He described Shelofsky as "the wild sales guy who's very good at procuring other investors."

Shelofsky came to the bank after a two-year stint as an officer with the South San Francisco Police Department ending in 1993 and a one-year tour on the force in Arcata, Calif., according to those departments.

A former colleague in Arcata said he was "the type of person you can't help but like."

"He really had a gift of gab," Capt. Tom Chapman said.

U.S. Bank hired Shelofsky as a fraud investigator in February 1997, according to records kept by a former bank investigator. He volunteered as a reserve officer for two years with the Milwaukie Police Department, officials there said.

Within two years, the bank promoted him to a new post recovering assets from customers and employees who had written bad checks or stolen money, ex-employees said. He negotiated with suspects to fork over stolen money or goods, which the bank then auctioned or redeposited.

"He was very effective," recalled Steve Ryker, one of Shelofsky's ex-bosses at U.S. Bank. "He embraced (the job)."

Within a few years, Shelofsky began flashing signs of wealth and making friends in high places while pulling down a salary that one former manager estimated at about $35,000.

In 2001, he bought a half-million-dollar home in a West Linn hillside neighborhood and built a second home in the sagebrush east of Bend with a second-story deck facing Three Sisters.

He struck up a conversation with Brian Snodgrass, a builder whose family owned Dennis' Seven Dees Landscaping business, at a gym in Clackamas, Snodgrass said. Together, in 2002, they formed Rhino Properties and developed 50 rowhouses in Portland's Delta Park area, he said.

Shelofsky also met Craig Glazier, who managed the U.S. Bancorp Tower in Portland for then-owner Unico Properties. Beginning in 2001, they formed Peaceful Warrior Enterprises, later renamed DesertScape Properties, along with at least four other limited-liability corporations, to develop land, according to records of the Oregon secretary of state's corporation division.

Over the next few years, the duo and a group of mostly unspecified investors began buying Bend-area land, including prime commercial properties downtown, according to Deschutes County property records. They set per-square-foot purchase price records, local developers say, as they bought St. Clair Place, Bend's first mixed-use boutique mall; the historic D.H. Sphier Building; and land next to the popular Deschutes Brewery, where they plan a mixed-use condo project.

Shelofsky and Glazier also acquired two parcels on their own in Pronghorn Estates, a new exclusive golf resort northeast of Bend, county records show. In 2005, Shelofsky also bought a $1.5 million home hugging the Deschutes River in downtown Bend. In August, he borrowed $1.7 million to buy two lots in the tony community of Broken Top, west of Bend.

But Shelofsky and Glazier found their biggest success in Redmond, where the duo and partners assembled six commercial lots on the north edge of town. Earlier this year, DesertScape subdivided the 32 acres into three parcels and sold the largest to Wal-Mart for $10.3 million for a Supercenter.

"Wal-Mart," Glazier said in an interview in July, "was huge." Lenders opened their coffers, he said, and the duo's investors were thrilled.

"They've been just perfectly honest with us," said L. Scott Goodrich, an investor and a Bend-area contractor who built Shelofsky's second home, in an interview this summer. Added wife Wanda Goodrich, "We're pretty touchy about who we invest with."

On Friday, Glazier said he was unaware of Shelofsky's planned guilty plea and said his partner "was never really a huge part of our company."

"He was with me in the beginning," he said. "I needed someone to sign on these loans for me. I've been running this thing some time now. . . . I'm the only one with real estate experience."

In July, DesertScape removed Shelofsky's name from its list of shareholders, corporation division records show, and reorganized as a company solely managed by Glazier.

Long before Shelofsky went into development, several former and current co-workers said they found him less than honest.

One was Anderson's former boss, Tammy Glenn, a fraud investigator at U.S. Bank from 1995 to 1999.

Glenn sued the bank in 2001 for wrongful termination, alleging the bank forced her out after she reported to federal authorities an unrelated loan fraud scheme by bank employees. Without admitting wrongdoing, the bank settled the lawsuit in 2002 for an undisclosed sum.

When Shelofsky joined the bank in 1997, Glenn was working for internal investigations chief Schanaker. The four-person unit -- kept separate from investigators who looked into fraud by customers -- investigated and fired 135 workers that year, Schanaker said.

Glenn and another investigator quickly grew suspicious about Shelofsky, according to interviews with Glenn and depositions taken in her case. Shelofsky, Glenn said, bragged about working on a SWAT team and showed off a tattoo he said he got working undercover. The two investigators doubted the claims.

Glenn said they took their misgivings to Schanaker, who she said found inaccuracies in Shelofsky's job application. But First Bank managers, who by then had assumed control of the consolidated bank, barred Schanaker from confronting Shelofsky, Glenn said.

Schanaker declined to discuss his findings but said they would have prompted the bank to fire Shelofsky under its previous ownership. "They made some poor judgments on retaining Shelofsky," Schanaker said.

After the bank combined internal and external investigators into a single unit, it offered Glenn a supervisory role. She accepted the job but objected to overseeing Shelofsky, she said. Glenn said she recommended to Ryker, then the bank's regional investigations manager, that Shelofsky be fired, citing the alleged discrepancies in his application.

Ryker, who now works for Wells Fargo Bank's corporate security department in Portland, said he investigated Glenn's allegations but found nothing improper.

Ryker then assigned Shelofsky to report to him, Glenn said, and promoted him to the asset-recovery job.

Later, Glenn said, she recommended a second time that Shelofsky be fired, this time for allegedly violating bank policies. Glenn and another investigator alleged Shelofsky brought a gun to work, flashed his Milwaukie reserve officer's badge while interviewing a suspect at the bank and sexually harassed female co-workers, including Glenn. Her recommendation went unheeded, she said.

Shelofsky and Ryker, meanwhile, became friends. They worked out together at lunch several times a week and occasionally socialized with each other's families, Ryker said.

Before long, other investigators grew resentful of Shelofsky's relationship with Ryker, particularly after Shelofsky was placed on a more favorable pay scale, according to depositions in Glenn's case. Several workers expressed qualms about Shelofsky's honesty and his handling of recovered assets, according to Glenn and depositions.

"He'd come in and brag about the brand-new car he was buying or the latest boat," Glenn said in an interview.

Glenn said she doubted Shelofsky could afford the purchases on a salary that she recalled to be in the mid-$30,000s. She also disbelieved accounts Shelofsky told of a large inheritance because, she said, his stories varied.

"There was just lots of complaining going on around the office about Dave, and ethics issues, dishonesty, unreliability," said Kim M. Stone, a bank investigator, in a deposition in Glenn's case. "And so we went to Steve (Ryker) to talk to him about that."

Glenn, Stone and another investigator, Debra Zabel, met with Ryker on Aug. 16, 1999, to air their concerns, exhibits in the lawsuit show.

"Some staff feel David is dishonest," according to Ryker's notes on the meeting, submitted as an exhibit in Glenn's lawsuit. "Need controls on recovered property. Feel David is given too much room. Recommend that all staff handle their own recoveries."

Within two weeks, Ryker informed the women that the allegations against Shelofsky were "unfounded," Ryker's notes say.

Glenn quit the bank a month later.

In an interview last month, Ryker said he could recall no indication that Shelofsky might be stealing money. "If there were warning signs, the company would have looked into them," Ryker said.

Yet, suspicions about Shelofsky continued, stirring tensions on another front.

Anderson, a 21-year fraud investigator, said she suspected as early as 1998 that Shelofsky was embezzling large sums, according to the complaint she filed with the state labor bureau. In May 2005, Anderson told a co-worker that she had passed her suspicions on to the FBI, the complaint says.

A month later, the complaint alleges, she told the bank's human resources manager about the alleged embezzlement. The manager, the complaint states, later told her that her allegations were "false" and that she was a "gossip."

Anderson also suspected Shelofsky had shared some allegedly embezzled money with co-workers, her complaint says. "I was informed that Mr. Shelofsky was giving 'gifts' of large sums of money to persons I worked with and/or around," she says in the complaint.

No other claims or evidence suggesting such payments took place surfaced in The Oregonian's examination.

Anderson said in her complaint that she believed Jim Ghelfi, a regional manager for the bank, and Zabel, then her direct supervisor, "and others" had been aware of "illegal activity" at the bank for some time. "Some may have accepted gifts from Mr. Shelofsky and/or others may have just looked the other way," her complaint alleges.

Ghelfi declined comment, citing the bank's media policy, and referred questions to a spokesperson. Zabel did not return calls placed to her home and work.

Anderson alleges in her complaint that bank managers disciplined her, personally attacked her and treated her differently, partly because of her suspicions.

In a written response to Anderson's complaint, U.S. Bank said Ghelfi and Zabel learned of Anderson's allegations on June 9, when they received a copy of Anderson's labor bureau complaint.

"Ms. Anderson did complain to Mr. Ghelfi and Ms. Zabel that she thought Mr. Shelofsky was away from his desk too frequently," the bank said. "However, she said nothing to them about his alleged illegal or unethical behavior."

The bank said Anderson's performance "took a turn for the worse beginning in 2003" when she failed to resolve cases on time and also engaged in "disruptive behavior."

Labor bureau officials say they are investigating the complaint. Anderson remains an employee of the bank but has been on medical leave since August 2005.

Duncan McGeary said...

Then who's the drug laundering guy, owner of Liberty Theater downtown. Wasn't he also involved in DesertScape at one point?

Duncan McGeary said...

I've never felt Merenda was ever meant to succeed. It was meant to get established with other people's money, while the Deep is all one owner. Interesting.

Duncan McGeary said...

The 15 to 20% drop is what I've seen as well. It may mean that he's just willing to be more honest about it. But....it also go be a forewarning so it won't be such a shock when Merenda's folds.

I've always thought the Deep was the real end-goal.

Duncan McGeary said...

Former owner of the Liberty Building, I should say. I think he's in jail.

timothy said...

Tiger Woods got a bunch of Joe Sixpacks onto the courses a while back. That movement convinced people to fund a bunch of golf courses. Joe golfs a lot less now, because it really is expensive, and the courses are hosed as a result.

Too many course and too many houses.

How many Realtors and Mortgage Brokers are golfing now?

timothy said...

I love that NYT golf article. A course added a party tent and does weddings so it can stay relevant. But folks living on the course are pissed by the noise.

So the kind of golf course that has adapted to reality is now incompatible with the remora-like houses that are attached to it.

Anonymous said...

Notcie how Merenda was down harder than anything else quoted in the piece.

Merenda is a mediocre restaurant with high prices. It was the fashionable place to go for a couple of years, and then the novelty wore off and business started to decline. It's a familiar pattern for "upscale" Bend restaurants. How many can you name that were in business 10 years ago and still are today?

Anonymous said...

Then who's the drug laundering guy, owner of Liberty Theater downtown. Wasn't he also involved in DesertScape at one point?
*

Dunc, Do you remember a while back when ms-fucker ( ms-tucker I know this is an endearment ).

Ms-Fucker made a totally TRUE assertion, that when (2002) most of these frauds came to BEND they brought their drug dealer, who of course was making far more REAL MONEY.

Much of the SHIT bought in BEND at COMMERCIAL was done with drug money.

See drug issue @ angrybendbitch.blogspot.com about two posts ago.

*

IF the DEA wanted to have real fun in BEND, they could go around, and force the dealers to tell them who their customer/investors were, ... they know, but its pattern to go after small fry.

BEND RAN ON COCAINE all during the BOOM, and MS-FUCKER knows this, and she is a realtor who speaks the truth.

Anonymous said...

BEND RAN ON COCAINE all during the BOOM, and MS-FUCKER knows this, and she is a realtor who speaks the truth.

*

Dunc,

This is the primary reason why the SORE&BULL and all is-was silent, it wasn't so much about 'money' during the BEND-BUBBLE, as it was about drugs, pussy, and wine, ALL paid for by city-hall budget.

This crosses liberal/conservative boudnarys which is why ALL past liberal politicians were silent, because NOBODY wanted the party to end.

Anonymous said...

One thing is clear that 2002+ and later the old guard SOLD out Bend to organized criminals, and sat back and enjoyed the cash flow. ONLY now that contract sales are defaulting and ALL this RE is coming back to the good old boyz, only now is the old liberal guard coming out and saying something.

*

This is critical to understand, much of these over-priced deals were SOLD on contract, which means when the default, and they always do they ALL come back to the old gaurd.

I had a buddy that had few bars, he's dead now, and he would sell the bar for a fair price, and 10% down (CASH), on contract, he NEVER in 40 years ever didn't have bar come back in 3-5 years. He said it was the greatest biz he was ever in, just taking in downpayments and getting FAR more in payments than he would have gotten for rent. Doing it over&over, ...

The big pic is this is how Bend works in all bubbles.

Anonymous said...

One last item on the 'desertscape ', and I wrote about this a year ago, and NOT one of you fucking cunts would believe me, e..g the WALMART connection.

The fact is "desertscape " was funded by WALMART, and they just were doing this here, all over the country, good looking young guys in their late 30's were going into small town city-halls and with pussy, cocaine, ... getting a WALMART approved, they would BUY the land, and then they would front for WALMART to get the deal made. Nobody would KNOW that the land would be a WALMART until after the land was purchased, and magically desertscape found a BUYER "WALMART". It was all magic.

This IS HOW THEY MADE their money. The story is very similar to the Mena Arkansas story of Clinton first term COCAINE. The boyz got to big.

The real problem, is once that WALMART realized there were TOO MANY FUCKING walmarts around bend, they quit buying property which was how 'desertscape ' made their bucks, all the downtown was an investment of the walmart profits.

BUT make NO FUCKING mistake desertscape was a front for WALMART, right out of the TEAM-HOLLERN playbook called 'smart growth' SEND in young PR bunnys male&female young good looking kids, and get shit done in city-hall.

Duncan McGeary said...

I'm starting to believe you that they fronted for Walmart in Redmond.

But I suspect the downtown buildings are their own idea.

Walmart isn't that stupid.

Anonymous said...

I'm starting to believe you that they fronted for Walmart in Redmond.

But I suspect the downtown buildings are their own idea.

Walmart isn't that stupid.

*

I know I write incoherently, but HERE I go again, ...

They fronted for WALMART all over the country.

They took the WALMART profits they made by getting the deals done, and BEING PR bunnys' on walmarts behalf, ... good local young boys buy local land, but only find WALMART as buyer.

Young boyz make a lot of MONEY, they invest in BEND COMMERCIAL RE, they have very expensive habits, and they're loved by everyone in city-hall cuz, they throw the best party's.

WALMART didn't want the building across the street from you, that was there attempt to invest their money in what they thought would be the NEXT ASPEN.

They MADE THEIR REAL MONEY from the WALMART deals, and they weren't just here in OREGON, 'desertscape' was doing this local good looking young boy act all over the country.

WALMART didn't give a rats ass what these kids did with their money.

The fact is WALMART needed land, and these kids were a FRONT, to prevent NEW WALMART opposition from day-one.

Once they proved they had the WALMART relationship, they got tons of investor money, that they used for down payments to BUY even more downtown, ... Central Oregon land, trouble is they did this all at the end of the game.

The best part is the investors, this is so old, I have been here too long, and seen this too many times,

Years ago there was a guy in town, NOW DEAD, that got ten's of millions from "BEND INVESTORS" to buy almost all of SE-Oregon down south of Burns, ... they bought all the towns like French-Glen, and they lost ALL the money.

Good looking young people's ability to swindle stupid old greedy farts is without end, and look at DOT-COM, the young were supposed to re-invent the world.

Anonymous said...

But I suspect the downtown buildings are their own idea.

Walmart isn't that stupid.

*

Yes, DUNCAN they ONLY represented WALMART in terms of BEING a STRAWMAN with a pretty face to get good deals, from good old boyz, ....

It's an old trick, very old, ...

MIKE HOLLERN did the same thing to sell the NWXC to city-hall, he paid millions for dog & pony shows at high-desert museum, brought in consultants and called it 'smart growth', hired nothing but good looking young people to pull it off.

Smart Growth came from "WISE USE", and is a major republican mechanism to over-ride anti-development.

This is why there are NO liberals in Bend, this is why all of your OLD GUARD are shit-eaters, like bob woodward, and bruckner, cuz they ate the 'smart growth' wine&dine hook line & sinker, cuz the folks that own this town lead them all around by a leash.

Anonymous said...

Years ago there was a guy in town, NOW DEAD, that got ten's of millions from "BEND INVESTORS" to buy almost all of SE-Oregon down south of Burns, ... they bought all the towns like French-Glen, and they lost ALL the money.

*

His name was Floyd, again long dead,

Hell he even bought Denio, ...

Does anybody remember this shit??

I just bring it up, cuz it was all back in the late 1980's, and it was all investor money from Bend & PDX, and the investors all lost everything, ...

Oldest fucking tricks in the world, ... 'Investing' in Bend, I would RUN like hell if you ever see a good looking young guy in Bend tell you about making money on Eastern-OR land, ...

This shit just keeps happening over & over, some of these ghost towns in Bend have been sold 1/2 a dozen times to outside investors, ...

Never an end of STUPID money in BEND Oregon.

Anonymous said...

Good REPORT BOYZ/GIRLZ, even NOW BEND still #1 over-valued in PNW. 70%, and its got now where to go but DOWN.

***

https://www.nationalcity.com/content/main/micro-site/economics/commentary-analysis/pages/documents/3Q2007Report.pdf

Oregon Homes Way Overvalued

National City released its third quarter 2007 report last month and it offered a chilling look at Oregon’s Metro areas when compared to the nation.


The most overvalued market is Bend, OR at 70%. While price declines in all of the California metros have reduced their overvaluation, extreme overvaluation remains the norm in each of the Pacific Coast states.


According to National City, Oregon contains some of the most overvalued markets in the country. The first graph shows Northwest markets with their ‘overvaluation’ ranking. Click on any graph for a better image.

Anonymous said...

FUCK PNW, BEND is the MOST TOXIC RE in the USA, and MOST LIKELY WORLD.

MS-FUCKER are you read for 1-4 sales per month??

***
https://www.nationalcity.com/content/main/micro-site/economics/commentary-analysis/pages/documents/3Q2007Report.pdf
***

Bend, OR - price versus OVER-VALUE
$181.9 12.4% | 2003
$202.4 17.0% |
$249.3 36.9% |
$319.8 73.1% |
$317.5 68.1% | 2007/q2
$320.1 70.0% | 2007/q3

( Page two )

The most overvalued market is Bend, OR at
70%. This level of valuation is up 1.9
percentage points from the second quarter. It
was among 117 metro areas which saw their
levels of overvaluation increase. The largest
declines in levels of overvaluation were seen in
Merced, CA (falling 12.3 percentage points)
and Stockton, CA (down 11.3).
While price declines in all of the California
metros have reduced their level of
overvaluation, extreme overvaluation remains
the norm in each of the Pacific Coast states.
Overvaluation is also still extensive throughout
Florida, and in the Greater Washington, DC
metro area.
In our analysis, we have determined that levels
of valuation that fall within ±15% are
considered to be statistically normal. In the
third quarter, there are 201 metro areas that
fall in this range, up from 186 metro areas in
the second quarter.
The fact that nearly two-thirds of the areas
covered are in this "normal" range highlights
that the metros that are overvalued are among
the minority and are gradually seeing their
numbers decline. As the housing slowdown
takes hold nationally, the number of overvalued
markets should continue to decline.

MStucker said...

Yeah, I am ready! As I said in a previous post, I have no debt, house is paid for, plenty of "other" income and may just go play for a few years.

How come you keep misspelling my name? :>(

bruce said...

Re: They fronted for WALMART all over the country.

That is simply not proven by anything you have ranted about.

They got LUCKY by selling Walmart land they had assembled.

Not that they are not stupid asshole greedheads, of course. But you are giving them too much credit.

Anonymous said...

Bruce pussy, if you take time and google

"desertscape walmart"

You can see they have been busy boys all over the country.

Anonymous said...

http://innowners.com/


Some good news the INN-OWNERS@7thMTN have PAPE sucking dick. I think he's about ready to hand over Freidman & Johnsons HOA HEAD.
Below is the PAPE meeting, and following the COMPLAINT pdf, this puppy is going to court.


Meeting with the Papes
February 14th, 2008

All-

Loren Waxman, Charles Cook, Susan Kimes and myself met with Jordan Pape and Danny Hollingshead for approximately three hours yesterday afternoon. You all know Jordan, who works at Flightcraft at PDX, where we met. Danny Hollingshead retired after a long career with Price Waterhouse in Seattle and joined the Pape Group in Eugene within the past two years. The meeting was certainly amicable, courteous, and hopefully productive. Charles gave a presentation on possible grants, low interest loans, and tax credits from the Energy Trust of Oregon, with whom he has been meeting. Then Loren gave a powerpoint presentation outlining a framework for a mutually acceptable solution. While I am hesitant to publicly air all of our negotiating points, we are attempting to separate the issue of money owed the Papes from the larger issue of how to finance and share fairly in the renovation of our buildings. We would like a greater involvement of more of our owners with construction experience in the renovation project. We want a greater transparency in accounting practices. We would like to see the voting rights of partial owners restored.

Both Jordan and Danny were open in their discussion and asked many good questions. They allowed as how we probably could agree on many of our points with little further discussion. The issue of how much the Papes are owed for work to the central core is obviously the greatest challenge. At this point the ball is in their court. We anticipate future meetings. We did agree to try initially to settle our differences within our group of six, utilizing our attorneys to formalize our agreement rather than negotiate a settlement. In the meantime preparations will continue for a possible appearance before a judge.

Danny opined that the first thing that Randy Pape would want to know would be whether our negotiating group of four adequately represents the private owners and could in fact speak for them. We replied that we have worked hard to establish a dialogue with all of the owners. While achieving unanimous support in our group is probably unrealistic, we felt that we would be able to rally support for a fair settlement from an overwhelming majority of our owners. This raises the possibility that possibly only at this time we could achieve a super majority of 90% to rewrite and modernize our bylaws. PB

Posted in Uncategorized | No Comments »
Amended Complaint Filed 2/5/08
February 6th, 2008

http://innowners.com/FirstAmendedComplaint.pdf

Anonymous said...

How come you keep misspelling my name? :>(

*

How come you don't write more for your website??

We need story's about what its really like to be a REALTOR today in BEND OREGON.

Anonymous said...

http://www.tsweekly.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=2515&Itemid=66


Bruce Pussy I need a devils advocate that Sucks Capell Cock. Will you offer your two cents, or better yet get one of your wives that skis to offer a point of view??
p.s. bruce pussy you think that Capell is distant from the old progressive politicians not true, ALL the current past pols in Bend are all active in the idea that they OWN century drive for their personal playground. Maybe this is why they let HOLLERN have everything else in the county?


The nordic club has forest-service in their pocket.

Most notable is the plan ..

1.) To charge $$$ to use Meissner ski, just like xc @ mt-b to pay for nordic-clubs machine, which I as a purest wish there were NO machines, but NORDIC wants it both ways, to have all control of all the MTN, but no machines, but theres, and US taxpayers paying their bill.

2.) Nobody should charge us to ski on century drive, this is why I no longer use MT-B.

3.) Linda Frost & Nordic Club seem to think they OWN swampy, Meissner, & wanogal; they have forest service in their pocket.

4.) This is wrong, twenty years ago these same people banned us dog people from OUR mtn, now they tell us we can use WANOGA, if we help ban snow-mobiles.

Make it clear that almost all ex politicians in BEND support the idea that century drive is their private playground, this goes for Capell, Frost, .. and ALL the people who run the Nordic Club.

They stole Swampy & Meissner for their personal use, this WAS all public land.

Let's stop it at this.

Anonymous said...

HEY BULL&SORE, want to see your future, read the following ... Newspapers that whored for RE laying everyone off, this one from Vancouver,WA, which is about 1yr ahead of PDX, and two years ahead of Bend
***

Columbian eliminates 30 jobs

Thursday, February 21, 2008
By JULIA ANDERSON, Columbian Staff Writer

Faced with a weakened local economy, The Columbian publishing company announced a restructuring that will eliminate about 30 jobs from its 360-person work force.

Nineteen employees were laid off Wednesday with the remainder of the reductions coming from vacant positions that will not be filled.

Publisher Scott Campbell said the company has struggled to meet revenue projections over the past year due to a weak economy, particularly in real estate, automotive, and retail advertising. “We tend to reflect the business trends of the local economy, and some of our key customers are struggling,” Campbell said. “We hope this will quickly improve for them, and for us.”

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

How come you keep misspelling my name? :>(

You don't want to hear what he's called some of us....

Timmy got the worst of it...

The Good News is after calling Tim the most vile name possible for a full year, Tim is now the only one he doesn't verbally abuse! YEAH!!

And "Tucker" is some pretty low-hangin fruit...

Anonymous said...

CACB called safest bank in the world - Homer it's TIME to put CACB on honor roll.

Cascade Bancorp (Oregon) (Nasdaq: CACB) Increases Its Estimated Fourth Quarter 2007 Provision for Credit Losses By $8.1 Million (Pre-Tax) to Approximately $15.6 Million (Pre-Tax)
Posted : Thu, 21 Feb 2008 21:30:40 GMT
Non-performing assets (5) 56,968 3,005 1795.8% Non-performing assets to total loans 2.79%
In addition, as of December 31, 2007 loans classified as non-performing increased by approximately $12.6 million


BEND, Ore., Feb. 21 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Cascade Bancorp ("Cascade") announced it revised its estimated fourth quarter 2007 earnings from those previously reported in the Company's January 23, 2008 press release. As a result of the revisions, the Company's fourth quarter earnings estimate is reduced to approximately $0.3 million or $0.01 per diluted share, with full year 2007 net income estimated at approximately $30.0 million or $1.05 per diluted share. This updated earnings estimate is the result of an $8.1 million (pre-tax) increase in the Company's fourth quarter 2007 provision for credit losses to approximately $15.6 million (pre-tax) compared to the $7.5 million (pre-tax) previously announced. This increased level of provision adjusts the Company's reserve for credit losses to approximately $37.0 million or 1.81% of gross loans at December 31, 2007.

The updated provision for credit losses is the result of events subsequent to the previous press release which provide additional evidence with respect to the credit quality and collateral value of Cascade's loan portfolio as of December 31, 2007. Since such information pertains to conditions that existed as of December 31, 2007, accounting guidelines require the related effects be recorded in that year. The Company had earlier estimated its fourth quarter 2007 earnings at $5.4 million or $0.19 per diluted share, and full year 2007 earnings of $35.2 million or $1.23 per diluted share.

"As we navigate through this challenging downturn in the real estate market, we will continue to monitor our loan portfolio and take appropriate measures to reserve against the risks posed," said Patricia L. Moss, CEO. After recording this increased provision for credit losses, Cascade continues to be "well-capitalized" according to regulatory guidelines. CACB estimates its Tier 1 tangible equity ratio at December 31, 2007 at approximately 9.91%, compared to 9.82% at December 31, 2006.

The adjustment to the provision for credit losses arises from the following:

-- $3.8 million increase in reserve for credit losses associated with loan credit quality rating and valuation adjustments mainly against certain land development related loans. -- $1.7 million increase in the unallocated reserve for credit losses to approximately 10% of the total reserves. This action is taken in recognition of the elevated level of uncertainty as to the severity of the real estate downturn and its related effects on loan credit quality. -- $2.6 million increase in net loan charge-offs including $1.7 million in fair value adjustments applied to collateral dependent assets classified as other real estate owned. The increase in net charge-offs brings the total for the quarter to $6.4 million compared to the $3.8 previously announced.

In addition, as of December 31, 2007 loans classified as non-performing increased by approximately $12.6 million and balances classified as other real estate owned increased by approximately $4.5 million. This adjustment is primarily related to certain land development loans in the Southern Oregon market.

Anonymous said...

SWEET DOWN 5% in one day, SO BEND


Cascade Bancorp
(Public, NASDAQ:CACB) - Add to Portfolio - Discuss CACB Find more results for cacb

12.11
-0.59 (-4.65%)
Feb 21 - Close Open: 12.83 Mkt Cap: 339.49M P/E: 9.89 Dividend: 0.10
High: 12.85 52Wk High: 27.44 F P/E: N/A Yield: 3.30
Low: 12.06 52Wk Low: 11.50 Beta: 0.90 Shares: 28.03M

Bend Economy Man said...

Just a thought:

If Bank of the Cascades had 4Q 2007 earnings of $0.01 per share, probably a safe bet that in 1Q 2008 it's running at a loss.

CACB really "lucked out" (wink-wink) that even after revising its accounting mistakes, it managed to eke out a meager profit, thus delaying the inevitable "Bank of the Cascades Unprofitable" headline for a few months.

How, by the way, has P. Moss kept her job the whole time?

My target CACB stock price for April 2008: $9.

Anonymous said...

The Good News is after calling Tim the most vile name possible for a full year, Tim is now the only one he doesn't verbally abuse!

*

TT ( timmy-twat ), is probably the most considerate persona here. I have actually never called homer a smelly-cunt, that's his own self description.

We have met the enemy and he is us.

I have actually only called homer nasty names once, and that was over a year ago when he suggested that the city offer 'incentives' to employers, and I demanded to know what he meant by that.

msFucker is a lot cuter than msTucker. It shouldn't be about people it should be about ideas. I would like to call her 'Lisa', but she doesn't appear to be smart enough, I guess she could be Marge, if you wish I'll start calling you Marge rather than msFucker, but then that would make you Homer's wife.

bruce-pussy is a good devils-advocate at some times, as he feels himself part of the status quo, and wishes to protect them, but in his current blog from city-hall labors to the point of self pity. Why Can't HE get NO RESPECT? {juniper-ridge-info.blogspot.com }

I called Dunc "Ned Flanders", cuz he's such a goody two shoes in his blogging of Bend. Its all a facade of course, cuz his vitriolic causticity is worse than mine. He feels that being public requires this, I feel that being very hard on one another makes us strong.

My guess is he hasn't been around politics long enough to know how the elite rules really do think of the citizenry. If he wants respect, then he should run for city office, and then fire the city-manager.

Bruce-Pussy is no more smarter nor dumber than the average electable in this town, that is for damn sure. So do it BP, you got the time.

What the fuck does BEM do at 2am every AM?? I'm only up because I can't sleep the new Imperial IPA from Cascade Locks just came out, and I picked up a growler on Wednesday, and I had a couple pints last night.

I can display adolescent humor, because I'm Bart.

I have been called every name imaginable, but I'm oblivious because I only care about ideas.

I really do wish we had a 'lisa' in a our group, a caustic female, who knew Bend.

Anonymous said...

Regarding the issue that on the National Level the Bottom will be called this year on the RE market. That most likely is true, but doesn't have a DAMN thing to do with Bend, Oregon.

***

You'll clearly see that TOLL peaked in 2004, and CACB in 2006. ( If you compare the two charts at the 5yr scope using google-finance )

Bend is TWO years behind the National Trend.

Leading is Atlanta, they collapsed a year ago.

.....

TOLL is/was SMART money, the investor/builders knew it was game over in 2004/2005. It takes about a year for the RE market to collapse after that. Go to Google and look at the five year chart for TOLL or any other major USA builder of high-end homes.

The reason that Bend is late, is the reason PDX is late, Oregon is always late to the game, and always has been. Last to runup, last to recover.

My feeling for this is on a National Level, when you have RE runup's people are looking for bargains, and Oregon is off most peoples radar. Finally when deals can be found no where else in a bubble, then Oregon is found last.

Bend of course is an a perfect storm of artificial creation where you had City-Hall running PR/Marketing scam to sell condos, an artificial SDC to subsidize developers, and a pre-existing second home market.

Bend even today is still the #1 toxic most over-valued RE in the USA at 70% over-value.

From 1988 to 2006 PDX had almost 15%/yr non-stop, in many ways Bend reflected SO-CAL with the 1992 slump.

2010 will be bottom for Bend, but the UP-SIDE will neither be long nor strong, boomers will be selling their homes, and the kids not buying them. Boomers with 2 or more homes, and kids with min-wage jobs. Once the boomers cash is gone, and savings is gone, its going to be a slow-down out to 2018, then a BIG-WAR, then another baby-boom in 2025.

2018 will be the peak of the next bubble ( alt-energy ), then there is nothing BUT a HUGE war that will re-ignite the US machine. No problem in seven years another baby-boom, then it will be a rocket for another generation.

2010 will be a good time for kids to buy homes at 4X of income, by the time the baby-boom starts up and if they get a 15yr fixed, they can ride the next boom, and be free&clear. From 2010 to 2025 buying a home in Bend will do NO better than inflation. It will take new baby-boom and amnesia of a generation to forget the housing bust. People in 2025 will look back to 2008 the way we look at the 1930's.

Anonymous said...

BendWeekly publishes 'tetherow' press release VERBATIM - It looks like BAUHOFER&LIETZ are dressing the PIG up for a sale. What a market to be making this many promises, in the worst possible timing, and with GOLF utterly collapsing in popularity.
***

Feb 22,2008
Tetherow golf course on track for summer opening
by Bend Weekly News Sources
small font medium font large font

BEND, Ore. – Tetherow, a new luxury golf community close to the central Oregon city of Bend, hosted a “soft-opening” June 19-21 for members of the David McLay Kidd-designed golf course, with a public opening planned for late summer 2008.

Kidd is the internationally famous designer of the Castle Course at St. Andrews in Scotland and of Bandon Dunes on the southern Oregon Coast. The Tetherow course will showcase the minimalist, natural style Kidd made famous with those two installations.

Members of private clubs elsewhere may take advantage of reciprocal play for a limited time before Hotel Tetherow opens next year. Initial greens fees are set at $200 per round.

The course is part of Tetherow’s new 700-acre golf resort community which will include Bend’s first luxury hotel. Tetherow also will feature a spa, restaurant, recreation center, conference center and 589 homesites.

When the lower, public area of the golf clubhouse at Tetherow opens this summer, it will feature a pro shop, locker facilities and catered food and beverage. The members-only upper level will include a bar, restaurant, private dining room and separate locker facilities, and is set for a fall opening. Tetherow homeowners will enjoy social memberships in the 17,500-square-foot clubhouse and may also purchase golf memberships. In addition, guests at Hotel Tetherow will have playing privileges and access to the lower level of the clubhouse.

Kidd elaborated on his newest course: “Modern equipment allows practically anyone to create perfectly immaculate golf courses,” he said. “As a result, golfers have almost come to expect that their fields of play are lush and green and manicured... in other words, bland, uninspiring, and cookie cutter. We embrace nature’s imperfections. We seek to take golfers on an adventure marked by nuance and subtlety and unpredictability.”

Tetherow’s course will have the visual characteristics of a seaside links course built near the water’s edge, with many of Kidd’s signature design elements. Landscaping will feature high desert trees such as Ponderosa pine and juniper, and golfers will enjoy views of the Cascade Mountains.

Named “the hottest architect in golf” by Golf World magazine in 1999, Kidd is the only contemporary golf course architect whose work has been the subject of two books. “Dream Golf” chronicled the construction of Bandon Dunes, and “The Seventh at St. Andrews: How Scotsman David McLay Kidd and His Ragtag Band Built the First New Course on Golf's Holy Soil in Nearly a Century” is a shovel-by-shovel look at his work at “the birthplace of golf.”

Born and raised in the Scottish lowlands, Kidd learned the trade at the side of his father, Jimmy Kidd. David Kidd’s formal education came at Writtle College, the largest land sciences college in the UK. After an internship with Southern Golf, a leading golf construction company, he joined a small design firm, Swan Golf Designs, as a designer/project manager. In 1991, at the age of 24, Kidd returned to Scotland as director of design for Gleneagles Golf Developments. In that position, he designed courses throughout the world, including Gokarna Park Golf Resort in Kathmandu, Nepal; Golf De Andratx in Majorca, Spain, and Bandon Dunes.

When he completed Bandon Dunes in 1998, Kidd struck out on his own and established DMK Golf Design, which now has offices in Essex, England and Bend, where he recently purchased the first homesite at Tetherow. In April, 2007, he relocated his world headquarters to Bend.

To enhance the natural features of the unplayable areas, says golf development director Chris van der Velde, Tetherow is spending most of this winter in a re-naturalizing process that takes native vegetation and soil cleared from home lots, the hotel and the clubhouse and reintroduces it around the fairways to blend them with the surrounding environment.

“David wants to make it look as natural as possible,” says Van der Velde, a former European Tour golfer. “It looks like David laid the fairways and greens down between the rolling hills and the sagebrush, bitterbrush and manzanita.”

If all goes well, Tetherow will earn the Audubon International Certified Golf Course designation for its care with the environment, Van der Velde said. It would be the first such certified course in the state of Oregon. In order to achieve certification, golf courses must implement and document projects in environmental planning, wildlife and habitat management, chemical use reduction and safety, water conservation and quality management and outreach and education.

Tetherow will be the first of central Oregon’s major resorts to be located so close to the city’s many amenities, and will offer the area’s first luxury hotel accommodations. The resort’s location on the edge of Bend’s upscale west side means that Hotel Tetherow guests and Tetherow homeowners can take advantage of an integrated city and wilderness environment. Arrowood Tetherow, LLC, a Bend development company, owns the Tetherow project. Don Bauhofer and John Lietz are principal partners.

Anonymous said...

Could someone from the City please tell me just how we are going to finance this thing without going bankrupt? - bruce PUSSY

* WRT Juniper-Ridge Financing of LS


Bruce Pussy,

First of ALL the city GOT nothing for the land. LS paid $3M on the behalf of Dick Borgman to get rid of KURATEK. This was why LS was brought in.

In exchange for providing the $3M hush-money, LS got 40 acres for FREE, plus $15M in SDC ( shovel ) ready. 20 acre explicit for CAMPUS plus the other 20 acres was used as a source of FILL (ROCK) for MT-BORGMAN the pad for the campus.

Given that the road cost for LS @ JR will be $60M, the true cost of LS@JR is $75M to the city of Bend to date.

Now WRT the LAND, the land was FREE $1 back in 1990, the city gave the land to LS, for bailing them out of the KURATEK fuck-UP.

Now the city of bend OWNS two very nice master-plans ( OTEK+KURATEK ) that Garzini & good old boyz can shove up their ass for perpetuity.

Its game over, now what in the fuck are you dwelling on??

There were was NO $10 sq-ft, there was NOTHING that came in, cuz what happened was a straight transfer the same FUCKING day the LS money came in it was wired to KURATEK's account. This was always the DEAL.

KURATEK got city-hall to DUMP the OTEK master-plan in 2005, in 2006 of August the UBS $20M finance that KURATEK promised failed, that was the NAIL on the coffin for KURATEK.

Good OLD boyz, garzini/hollern came to BORGMAN (LS) for a bailout. He drew up the LS-sales agreement on oct 15,2006, only two months after KURATEK announced he couldn't get financing. On dec 2, 2006 the city signed the infamous LS sales-agreement that said the city would give LS 40 acres for free, and spend $75M in SDC, in exchange for paying off KURATEK $2.5M + costs to go away.

Borgman had to wait until Dec 2, 2006 because that was when he became president, prior to that he didn't have the power, and old man Les Schwab was infirm, he died the following spring.

Bankruptcy? The city of bend has been a dead man walking for a long time.

COMPS?? The next company that comes to JR ( juniper-ridge ) can expect to pay nothing for the land, and also get $100M or more in SDC's paid for by the city-of-Bend. This is NOT even a ponzi scheme as the first tier didn't pay, nor will anyone ever pay. No further tier would pay, you would have to be an ABSOLUTE MORON to DEVELOP THERE!!!

The real problem here is the cost to develop desert ROCK LAND, there is a reason JR sat empty all these years. Its ALL ROCK. It cost the city $12M just to have Knife-River move around 40 acres of ROCK to build MT-BORGMAN on behalf of LS ( Les Schwab ). Thats a cost of $300k per acre just to make that land shovel-ready. That's a cost of $7.5 sq-ft just to develop the land, for get about what the land cost.

The ONLY one that EVER profits from this boondoggle is KNIFE-RIVER aka Mark Capell.

There are simply too many other places that there is NO cost to develop the ground. What can the city sell this SHIT for?? Let's say the city asks $7sqft, that's just break-even, if they continue to provide the excavation. If they don't then the buyer has to pay $15sqft just for land, thats $600k/ac for worthless desert land.

ALL this crap is corporate welfare for Knife-River, Brooks Resources, ... which will probably all go bankrupt as well.

Les Schwab has ALWAYS bailed out BEND, they bailed out Old-Mill for Bill Smith, they bailed out every fucking problem this city has ever had.

Thus the city-hall had NO problem committing $100M in SDC's & free land to LS to pay KURATEK to go away, win-win for all.

FUCK the taxpayer, FUCK the citizen, they have nothing to do with this town. The ONLY reason the 70k population in this fucking town is kept around, is they'll be used as prison-fodder for Garzinis big wet prison dream.

bruce said...

Re: Bruce pussy, if you take time and google

"desertscape walmart"

You can see they have been busy boys all over the country.

I did, couldn't find shit. Only other mention of a Desertscape company and Wal-mart was in Syracuse, UT, where Desertscape was complaining a Walmart development had taken some of their potential tenants.

Got any real links? Or just and empty growler?

Anonymous said...

Brucey,

Isn't that where your from? Syracuse, UT??

I'll bet that you work for desert-scape, and thats why this is only time we have ever seen you ever get excited about anything??

Anonymous said...

Hey Bend! I hope THIS is NOT your future. For everyone's sake.

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200803/subprime

bruce said...

Re:Isn't that where your from? Syracuse, UT??

I'll bet that you work for desert-scape, and thats why this is only time we have ever seen you ever get excited about anything??

Nah, it was just such BS that I had to reply to something I normally would ignore. A few young guns with more money than brains come to Bend and end up getting their ass handed to them, and Anonymouse is claiming they are shills for Walmart nationwide. The fucking Redmond land sale to Walmart was the only thing they seem to have made money on, and judging from their actions, I bet they sunk those winnings into downtown Bend and now have nothing to show for it.

I'm way more worked up about the City going bankrupt following dreams of JR and we end up looking like Flint, Michigan on the High Desert. If JR had remained focused on jobs, and the idiots in office at the time (most of the same idiots as now) had simply moved forward with the OTAK plan, we wouldbe in a much better position right now. And we would probably still have LS moving in, but at less cost.

Bend Economy Man said...

CACB at just above $10 a share. Spectacular implosion. Did I say $9/share in April? Maybe it'll be below that by the end of next week!

Man I wish CACB Shorter were here. Paul, you remember back say 18 months ago when we were saying that CACB would end up going below $10? Even to those of us predicting it, it seemed like a bearish fantasy.

Today's Bulletin had an article on the new Bank of the Cascades writedown where they quote that same analyst in Portland whom they always quote and he was like "They won't go out of business."

And that guy's the same fool who's been predicting for a year now, as CACB has lost 70% of its market cap, that it would turn things around and that its loan portfolio is in good shape. He's been wrong with every other prediction, so him saying "They won't go out of business" is like the kiss of death for Bank of the Cascades.

Duncan McGeary said...

Bend Economy Man:

I really liked your comment over on my blog, and so I'm reproducing here, if you don't mind...

"It wasn't just local intellectuals like HBM and Bob Woodward that got co-opted. It was all of us. How many of us bit our tongues about growth when we saw Beck, Jack Johnson, Willie Nelson, Bob Dylan and the rest play at the amphitheater? How many of us thought "this new Bend ain't half bad" as we saw cute, single 20-something women in decent numbers for the first time in memory? How many of us sighed "FINALLY" when decent restaurants, coffee shops and bars started opening up in town?

2004-2005 will be remembered by many as the best of times in Bend. A time when it seemed like everyone in town, just by staying here or moving here, had made a smart move, and every day there was a new media story or anecdote about how fortunate we are. When house prices went up literally every day, and everyone who's anyone owned a house. When there was no doubt, NONE, in many people's minds that Bend's future would be only brighter and more upscale as time went by. When comparisons to super-elite resort areas like Aspen didn't seem farfetched, but inevitable.

The "hangover after the party" metaphor is overused but so apt. Everything and everyone looks different. I was a skeptic even during the boom but at least it was uplifting to see so many optimistic, self-assured people. The nice new buildings, cars, businesses and marketing materials looked so sleek and confident. Newly-platted housing developments crawling with hundreds of workers rushing to get houses to market exuded Progress and Hope. The new young people fresh from California and elsewhere were affluent-looking and attractive, slim and tan, outdoorsy yet worldly and educated, fashionably dressed and well-equipped for recreation.

But now the cute 22-year-old blondie is pale and overweight from a winter spent snowed in. The buildings and roads are covered in cinder dust. The unfinished housing developments and empty homes look dangerous, abandoned, haunted. You don't see a lot of 2007 and 2008 model cars. People look worried, not self-confident."


To which, I would add; I've always heard it said you can't see out of the bubble when you're in it.

It takes a pure act of will to try to instill a bit of downbeat reality into it, and most people wouldn't or couldn't do it.

Anonymous said...

But now the cute 22-year-old blondie is pale and overweight from a winter spent snowed in.

BEM just couldn't resist instilling a bit of downbeat unreality could he? Bend isn't the Yukon, people don't spend the winter snowed in here. During the big dumps at the end of January on the west side of town which got the most snow I saw kids sledding on hills and grown-ups cross country skiing through residential neighborhoods, but nobody snowed in. The cute 22-year-old blondie is more likely to be in good shape from all the skiing she did this winter at Bachy.

bruce said...

Re: "They won't go out of business" is like the kiss of death for Bank of the Cascades.


They're still trading at almost 12x earnings, which seems mighty optimistic.

What scares me is the overseas stuff, Northern Rock, Credit Suisse, UBS, etc.

And columns like this one by David Ignatius:Wall Street Bank Run
It doesn't look like an old-fashioned bank run because it involves the biggest financial institutions trading paper assets so complicated that even top executives don't fully understand the transactions. But that's what it is -- a spreading fear among financial institutions that their brethren can't be trusted to honor their obligations.

Frightened financiers are pulling back from credit markets -- going on strike, if you will -- to escape the unraveling daisy chain of securitized assets and promissory notes that binds the global financial system. As each financier tries to protect against the next one's mistakes, the whole system begins to sag. That's what we're seeing now, as credit market troubles spread from bundles of subprime residential mortgages to bundles of other kinds of debt -- from student loans to retailers' receivables to municipal bonds.

Investors are nervous because they aren't sure how to value these bundles of securitized assets. So buyers stay away, prices fall further, and the damage spreads.

The public, fortunately, doesn't understand how bad the situation is. If it did, we might have a real panic on our hands. And there would be more pressure for bad policies -- ones that try to freeze the damage, rather than letting prices fall to levels where buyers will return and the markets will clear. Hillary Clinton's proposed moratorium on home foreclosures, in that respect, is one of the truly bad ideas of our time. It would make the situation worse by increasing even more the illiquidity and inflexibility of the housing market.

The answer to Wall Street's bank run may be a version of what saved Main Street banks during the Great Depression. President Franklin Roosevelt created the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in 1933 to reassure the public that there was an insurer of last resort for the banks -- and that people's money was safe even if they couldn't see it or touch it or put it under a mattress. Rep. Barney Frank and other congressional experts are weighing different approaches to this problem of how to backstop the markets without Clinton's misguided moratorium.

These markets are now so complicated that most of us can't begin to understand the details. So I asked the chief financial officer of a leading concern to walk me through what has been happening. The problem, he said, is that financial institutions are required to "mark to market" their tradable assets (which is a fancy term for setting a value) even when there isn't a functioning market. In many cases dealers can do little more than guess at the value -- and other investors down the line know it.

To explain how this happened, the CFO took a simple example of residential mortgages. As financial engineering improved in the 1990s, these individual loans were gathered into bundles -- 10,000 home loans of $100,000 each, let's say -- and turned into a $1 billion security that could be traded in ways the individual mortgages never could. But that wasn't enough. The financiers realized they could boost their profits by carving the $1 billion package into different slices, with different risk levels. In that way, a pool of B-rated mortgage assets could generate a slice that was rated AAA, because it was judged the slice most likely to be repaid.

But what happened when the real estate market confounded recent history and began to turn down? People holding the paper could no longer be sure if or when their particular slice would be repaid. The traditional accounting approach -- of estimating the projected cash flow and then discounting for the risk -- didn't work. With 10,000 disparate mortgages underlying the paper, both the rate of cash payments and the risk of default were impossible to predict. So the pyramid began to wobble.

The hubris in this system was Wall Street's confidence that it could value paper securities that had been sliced and diced so many times that they no longer had solid connections to their underlying assets. The nation's leading financier, Warren Buffett, had warned years before that "derivatives," whose value was balanced loosely on the real assets underneath, were the equivalent of "financial weapons of mass destruction." But in the rush for profits, nobody listened.

I've saved the worst for last. Do you want to know who is bailing out America's biggest banks and financial institutions from the consequences of their folly -- by acting as the lender of last resort and controller of the system? Why, it's the sovereign wealth funds, owned by such nations as China and the Persian Gulf oil producers. The new titans are coming to the rescue, if that's the right word for their mortgage on America's future.


The Masters of the Universe truly did themselves in this time around, and it's going to hurt a lot of people. In ways I fear we can't even fathom yet.

bruce said...

And on a related note, this is an interesting article from Bloomberg on the banks difficulty actually tracking down those all important mortgage documents needed to foreclose:

Banks Lose to Deadbeat Homeowners as Loans Sold in Bonds Vanish

Feb. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Joe Lents hasn't made a payment on his $1.5 million mortgage since 2002.

That's when Washington Mutual Inc. first tried to foreclose on his home in Boca Raton, Florida. The Seattle-based lender failed to prove that it owned Lents's mortgage note and dropped attempts to take his house. Subsequent efforts to foreclose have stalled because no one has produced the paperwork.

``If you're going to take my house away from me, you better own the note,'' said Lents, 63, the former chief executive officer of a now-defunct voice recognition software company.

Judges in at least five states have stopped foreclosure proceedings because the banks that pool mortgages into securities and the companies that collect monthly payments haven't been able to prove they own the mortgages. The confusion is another headache for U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson as he revises rules for packaging mortgages into securities.

``I think it's going to become pretty hairy,'' said Josh Rosner, managing director at the New York-based investment research firm Graham Fisher & Co. ``Regulators appear to have ignored this, given the size and scope of the problem.''

More than $2.1 trillion, or 19 percent, of outstanding mortgages have been bundled into securities by private banks, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, a Bethesda, Maryland-based industry newsletter. Those loans may be sold several times before they land in a security. Mortgage servicers, who collect monthly payments and distribute them to securities investors, can buy and sell the home loans many times.

Housing Boom

Each time the mortgages change hands, the sellers are required to sign over the mortgage notes to the buyers. In the rush to originate more loans during the U.S. mortgage boom, from 2003 to 2006, that assignment of ownership wasn't always properly completed, said Alan White, assistant professor at Valparaiso University School of Law in Valparaiso, Indiana.

``Loans were mass produced and short cuts were taken,'' White said. ``A lot of the paperwork is done in the name of the original lender and a lot of the original lenders aren't around anymore.''

More than 100 mortgage companies stopped making loans, closed or were sold last year, according to Bloomberg data.

The foreclosure rate, at 1.69 percent of all U.S. homeowners, is the highest since the Mortgage Bankers Association began tracking it in 1993. The foreclosure rate for subprime borrowers, who have bad or incomplete credit and whose mortgages typically are securitized by private banks rather than government-sponsored entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, is at a four-year high, according to the mortgage bankers.

750,000 Homeowners

More than 1.5 million homeowners will enter the foreclosure process this year, said Rick Sharga, executive vice president for marketing at RealtyTrac Inc., the Irvine, California-based seller of foreclosure information. About half of them, 750,000, will have their homes repossessed, Sharga said.

Borrower advocates, including Ohio Attorney General Marc Dann, have seized upon the issue of missing mortgage notes as a way to stem foreclosures.

``The best thing to do is to keep people in their homes and for everybody to take steps necessary to make that happen,'' said Chris Geidner, an attorney in Dann's office. ``These trusts are purchasing these notes, and before they even get the paperwork, they foreclose on people. They become foreclosure machines.''

Lost-Note Affidavits

When the mortgage servicers and securitizing banks that act as trustees of the securities fail to present proof that they own a mortgage, they sometimes file what's called a lost-note affidavit, said April Charney, a lawyer at Jacksonville Area Legal Aid in Florida.

Nobody knows how widespread the use of lost-note affidavits are, Charney said. She's had foreclosure proceedings for 300 clients dismissed or postponed in the past year, with about 80 percent of them involving lost-note affidavits, she said.

``They raise the issue of whether the trusts own the loans at all,'' Charney said. ``Lost-note affidavits are pattern and practice in the industry. They are not exceptions. They are the rule.''

State laws generally make it difficult to foreclose because they favor the homeowner, said Stuart Saft, a real estate lawyer and partner at the New York firm Dewey & LeBoeuf LLP.

``All these loan documents are being sent to the inside of a mountain in the middle of America and not being checked very carefully,'' Saft said. ``The lenders can't find the paper. We're dealing with a lot of paper produced in a mortgage closing.''

`Waste of Time'

Requiring banks to produce the paperwork at a foreclosure hearing is a nuisance, said Jeffrey Naimon, a partner in the Washington office of Buckley Kolar LLP.

``It's a gigantic waste of time,'' Naimon said. ``The mortgage may have transferred five, six, eight times. It's possible that you don't have all the pieces of paper, but it was enough to convince the next guy in the chain. There's no true controversy over whether the owner owns the loan.''

Judges are becoming increasingly impatient with plaintiffs who produce no more proof of ownership than a lost-note affidavit or a copy of the note, said Michael Doan, an attorney at Doan Law Firm LLP in Carlsbad, California.

``Things are heating up,'' Doan said.

In Ohio, where RealtyTrac reported an 88 percent jump in foreclosures last year, Dann, the attorney general, is now arguing 40 foreclosure cases that challenge ownership of mortgage notes, according to his office.

`Cavalier Approach'

U.S. District Judge David D. Dowd Jr. in Ohio's northern district chastised Deutsche Bank National Trust Co. and Argent Mortgage Securities Inc. in October for what he called their ``cavalier approach'' and ``take my word for it'' attitude toward proving ownership of the mortgage note in a foreclosure case.

John Gallagher, a spokesman for Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG, said the bank had no comment.

Federal District Judge Christopher Boyko dismissed 14 foreclosure cases in Cleveland in November due to the inability of the trustee and the servicer to prove ownership of the mortgages.

Similar cases were dismissed during the past year by judges in California, Massachusetts, Kansas and New York.

``Judges are human beings,'' said Kenneth M. Lapine, a partner at the Cleveland law firm Roetzel & Andress LPA. ``They no doubt feel the little guy needs all the help he can get against the impersonal, out of town, mega-investment banking company.''

Warning Plaintiffs

U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Samuel L. Bufford in Los Angeles issued a notice last month warning plaintiffs in foreclosure cases to bring the mortgage notes to court and not submit copies.

``This requirement will apply because developments in the secondary market for mortgages and other security interests cause the court to lack confidence that presenting a copy of a promissory note is sufficient to show that movant has a right to enforce the note or that it qualifies as a real party in interest,'' the notice said.

Quick foreclosures benefit communities because properties in default lose value and homeowners in financial distress don't maintain their houses or pay real estate taxes, said Saft of Dewey & Leboeuf.

Painted as the Enemy

``When banks originally made the loans they used people's money from pension funds and savings accounts and they should be allowed to foreclose the loan as quickly as possible before the property depreciates in value any more,'' Saft said. ``The mortgage industry has been painted as the enemy when all they did was make loans to enable people to buy homes. Now there's less money available for new borrowers to buy homes and that's what's causing the value of homes to go down.''

Lents is former CEO of Investco Inc., a Boca Raton, Florida-based developer of voice recognition software. In 2002, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission sanctioned Lents and others for stock manipulation, according to the SEC Web site. He lost his job, was fined and his assets were frozen. That's the reason he couldn't pay his mortgage, he said.

``If the homeowner doesn't object to the lost-note affidavit, the judge rubber-stamps it,'' Lents said. ``Is it oversight, or are they trying to get around the law?''

Washington Mutual spokeswoman Geri Ann Baptista said the bank had no comment.

Looking for Loopholes

``I can't believe the handling of notes is worse than it was five years ago,'' said Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance. ``What we didn't have back then were armies of attorneys out there looking for loopholes. People are challenging foreclosures and courts are paying a lot more attention to foreclosures than they ever did before.''

American Home Mortgage Investment Corp., the Melville, New York-based lender that filed for bankruptcy last August, said it was paying $45,000 a month to store loan paperwork and petitioned U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Christopher Sontchi in Wilmington, Delaware, for the right to toss it all. Sontchi ruled last week that American Home Mortgage could charge banks from $3 to $13 a file to retrieve documents.

The home-loan industry has had a central electronic database since 1997 to track mortgages as they are bought and sold. It's run by Mortgage Electronic Registration System, or MERS, a subsidiary of Vienna, Virginia-based MERSCORP Inc., which is owned by mortgage companies.

No Tracking Mechanism

MERS has 3,246 member companies and about half of outstanding mortgages are registered with the company, including loans purchased by government-sponsored entities Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae, said R.K. Arnold, the company's CEO.

For about half of U.S. mortgages, there is no tracking mechanism.

MERS rules don't allow members to submit lost-note affidavits in place of mortgage notes, Arnold said.

``A lot of companies say the note is lost when it's highly unlikely the note is lost,'' Arnold said. ``Saying a note is lost when it's not really lost is wrong.''

Lents's attorney, Jane Raskin of Raskin & Raskin in Miami, said she has no idea who owns Lents's mortgage note.

``Something is wrong if you start from what I think is the reasonable assumption that these banks are not losing all of these notes,'' Raskin said. ``As an officer of the court, I find it troubling that they've been going in and saying we lost the note, and because nobody is challenging it, the foreclosures are pushed through the system.''


Seems like the lawyers make money coming and going, one way or another.

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