Monday, February 11, 2008

Bend Oregon: The Other Shoe Has Dropped

The Denial Continues:

Here's a good Reuters piece that summarizes the attitude of most economists towards the housing debacle, and certainly Bend media about our local situation:

Year of "denial" in U.S. subprime crisis

Fri Feb 8, 2008 7:01pm EST

By Jennifer Coogan

NEW YORK (Reuters) - One year after the first alarm bells of the subprime mortgage crisis rang on Wall Street, many of its victims are trading at half their value or less, while others have long been buried.

On February 8, 2007, HSBC (HSBA.L: Quote, Profile, Research) said it would take a charge of about $10.6 billion on subprime loans. The evening before, the No. 2 U.S. subprime lender, New Century Financial Corp (NEWCQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research), had unexpectedly warned it faced a quarterly loss and said it would restate previous earnings.

New Century shares lost more than a third of their value on February 8, but to look at the overall market, there was no telling how big a toll the crisis would take on the U.S. stock market. The S&P 500 shed less than 2 points that day.

By spring, the stocks of subprime lenders were falling into a death spiral and dropped from the major exchanges in steady succession.

On April 2, New Century filed for bankruptcy protection. American Home Mortgage Investment Corp AHM.N followed in August. Accredited Home Lenders Holding Co (LEND.O: Quote, Profile, Research) was bought out by a private equity firm in October.

Countrywide Financial Corp (CFC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the nation's No. 1 lender, hit a high of $44.92 on February 7, 2007. The shares are now trading at $6.58 as it awaits a takeover by Bank of America Corp (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research).

But despite the bloodbath in the mortgage finance sector, investors last autumn were still confident enough that the subprime debacle was contained that they pushed both the Dow and S&P 500 to lifetime highs on October 11.

From its intraday high on October 11 to Friday's close, the S&P 500 index has fallen 15.5 percent.

"That's been the history of the last year. Denial, denial denial," said Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., an investment research firm in Springfield, New Jersey. "That's what held stock up in October.

That confidence was shaken shortly after, when Merrill Lynch warned it would have to write down billions of dollars more in subprime-related debt than it had previously said. Citigroup, Bear Stearns and others added to the writedown chorus.

In a year, Merrill Lynch (MER.N: Quote, Profile, Research) has fallen nearly 45 percent. Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) stock has fallen more than 52 percent and Bear Stearns has shed nearly 51 percent. In addition to millions in market capitalization, all three firms have lost their chief executives.

By New Year, consensus formed that the subprime crisis would indeed spread beyond the mortgage and financial market and into the broader economy, and potentially beyond U.S. borders.

"More recently people realized the theory of decoupling was a fairytale, that the U.S. really is the world's economic leader," Shilling said. "There's still a lot of denial. The consensus is begrudgingly admitting we're into or close to recession, but the consensus is now that it will be over in the first half of the year."

Wall Street may have been late to recognize the impact of the subprime crisis, but the public caught on fast. Less than a year after HSBC and New Century fired their warning flares, the television show "Law and Order" featured a plot about a con-artist who scammed subprime mortgage holders facing foreclosure to sign over their homes.

Why is it that virtually EVERYONE "wants" this housing debacle to be mild so badly that they are perfectly FINE with making failed prediction after failed prediction that there will probably be NO RECESSION, ONLY A BARELY PERCEPTIBLE SLOWDOWN?

And incredibly this continues today. Every "prediction" is followed by COMPLETE FAILURE in it's predictive ability, but by God, they have NO PROBLEM issuing YET ANOTHER PREDICTION WHERE THERE IS NO FORMAL CONTRACTION (ie Recession).

This blog and most of it's commenters have said the Exact Opposite, And Been Dead Right.

Again: It'll be worse than you ever thought possible. It'll be worse than I thought possible. And I think it's going to be pretty gat damn bad.

To wit, mstucker posted on BendBB (don't cry Paulie... she can see other guys. We never agreed it was exclusive...) some horrendously deteriorating stats:

As of today the Jan 08 Stats are:
Residential homes on less than an acre, Bend
Sold=73
Median price=$310,000

Avg PP SF = $185.87

Avg SF = 2,057

DOM = 191


This is a 8.3% decline from Last Month! Last Month! I'm not sure how much stock I put in any stats regarding Bend RE at this point, cuz as I've said before, we've just reached The Sleeping Point: Our monthly sample sizes are too small to be reliable or indicative of any real trend. Even if I would have won the much vaunted Burrito Bet with BendBB, it would have been something of a hollow victory, cuz it could have just been a blip in the stats. 2 months below $300K? That would have been convincing.

The longest-running, internally consistent stats now seem to be coming from Doug Farmer.

David Foster seems to have thrown in the towel. Could it be that he has mentally walked away from RE as a career? Is tired of posting similar "hopeful" opinions, and pretty much being proved wrong? These posts don't really return him much given the time input? I don't know, but I sort of get the feeling that when you watch your industry disintegrate before your eyes, it's hard to stay enthused enough to write that all is well... or will be soon.

I've updated Doug's data in a google spreadsheet. There are some very forbidding numbers there.

First, it's The First Time that unit sales have fallen below 100 in Doug's data set, which goes back to Nov 2005. Only 94 units of all residential subtypes sold in Bend in January.

What does that mean?

That means the end of real estate as a career for MOST of Central Oregon. We should see mass exodus by many, MANY RE brokers in 2008. The weak will die en masse, the strong will be near-starvation, and many of them will die. Real Estate as a career & an industry (our PRIMARY industry) is Imploding.

94 units sold at an average of $388K (that's down 12.4% from Jan 2007's avg of $443K) means $36MM in sales, or about $2.2MM in commissions (assuming 6%, which is dubious at this point).

Remember, those commission dollars are split 4 ways, the respective listing & selling brokers & their respective motherships. And assuming 2,000 (that's LOW) brokers, that's $1,100 per, and divide by 4. Well, you can see this isn't sufficient for even 1/10th of our current broker count. Numbers down here is simply The End for HUNDREDS of the best paying jobs of the past 5 years.

According to Doug, the raw median for Jan was $307,500. This seems sort of odd given mstuckers addmittedly preliminary (but probably very close to the final figures) of $310K. Remember Doug's data covers "all residential subtypes" including townhomes, condos, and residential on acreage, amongst others. And it's the decent number of acreage properties that pushes Doug's median above the straight residential w/o acreage medians.

But not this month. This tells me (maybe wrongly) that acreage homes are falling apart compared to low-end stuff like mobiles.

And if higher end stuff is deteriorating, it seems maybe "trophy" home sales are starting to get hit, which also seems to be the case. Case in point, BendBB's listing data:


You can see that LISTING medians in Bend have flatlined at $400K +/- $1,000 for months. But sold prices are falling pretty regularly. So the high-end is going begging. No one is buying that stuff. Oh, they're still listing the hell out of it... but it ain't moving.

Why does this really matter? Well, I think I've heard the familiar refrain the "Bend Will Completely Escape The Fall In Prices Because Bend Is 103% Populated With Multi-Millionaires". Hmmmm... maybe that's true, but these vast fields of millionaires are starting to buy LOW END HOMES, and that's IF they buy anything at all... which they ain't.

Better than raw medians, is median PPSF:

Bend continues it's monotonic decrease, falling to $205/sf, down from a high of $227/sf in March of last year. Better to see the changes is PPSF's indexed to zero:

So you can easily see that homes as a store of value are falling HARD, especially adjusted for size, which seems to be the right measure.

So when does this conflagration end?

Welp, not soon, and not even close to current prices. Doug's AAA stat, most important number in Central Oregon economic stats is, of course, MONTHS OF INVENTORY. And at 20.01 months, this bodes VERY BADLY for the coming RE selling season. Last January this number was 12 months... and there was quite a bit of gravedancing.

WHEN SHOULD YOU BUY A HOME HERE?

I say again, "WHEN MONTHS OF INVENTORY STAYS BELOW 6 MONTHS FOR 3 MONTHS IN A ROW."

This is a deviation from my "12 months average below 6 months of inventory", and that's what I personally will look for. Either that or prices down around $200K adjusted for inflation. Yup... $200K! My 2007 number was $190K, or so so I'm adding the long-term average of 4% per annum, and rounding up a little. Hey, I'm an optimist.

But we won't see that for a long, LONG time. Why?

First, IT'S WORSE THAN ANYONE THINKS. I know, repetitive. But no one seems to be swallowing this. IT IS WORSE THAN YOU THINK. This isn't just a speed bump, neither locally or nationally. It is CATACLYSMIC. Our kids will look back on this as "Our Depression". We will ALL look back on this as The Turning Point, when we became Second Rate.

Huh? Yeah, see that's what happens when each & every person loses 1/4th... 1/3rd... or like here, 1/2 their wealth in a heavily indebted primary asset.

If you count roughly 75,000 housing units in Deschutes County, and each one losing $150K, that's $11.25 BILLION in losses. I know, doesn't seem possible, until you realize that back in the early 90's the ENTIRETY of Deschutes County real property was assessed closer to $1.5BB. It's now around $24 billion.

This is The Tsunami Wave down. This ain't that yearly cyclicality crap. Nor is it the decade long, Long Wave. This is The Big One. This one will blow out half the wealth of this place. It's OUT MIGRATION. IT'S MASS VACANCY, BOTH RESIDENTIAL & COMMERCIAL.

To repeat, IT IS WORSE THAN YOU EVER THOUGHT POSSIBLE. If you don't know what the fuck to do, it's cuz you're a deer caught in the headlights. Wake Up White People! Your ass needs to FLEE.

Sell that shithole surplus housing unit FOR WHATEVER YOU CAN GET. Hell, don't believe me, here's mstuckers take on it from a week or so ago:

I tell my buyers and sellers the truth. Don't buy now. And sell as fast as you can at the lowest price you can or stay forever.

Now I'm not sure I'm all in with the "sell at the lowest price you can" thing... I think *maybe* she means mark 'er down & get that White Elephant sold. The lowest PPSF in the neighborhood is The Only Stuff that'll sell.

Until January, you could conceivably say that the Bend RE market was "holding Up" OK. Prices had not really imploded. So you could say, "Hey, I might not have a great chance of selling, but at least I can still ask a decent price, cuz everyone else in the neighborhood is still asking more than what they paid".

No more. The Other Shoe Has Dropped. NOW, price is starting to plummet AND you have about a snowballs chance in hell of selling (remember 94 units... lowest per capita sold in Bend since The Earth was a molten ball of lava). Price is running away lower... and NO ONE is buying at these lower prices.

That sound?

That's THE OTHER SHOE HITTING THE FLOOR.

Buster Makes A Funny:

Usually Busters idea of humor is calling Bruce or I a smelly cunt. And I'll admit it was pretty funny the first 600X he said that. Now, I know that everybody has ulterior motives, little pet-projects that they want to succeed no matter what, and they'll talk about it whatever the forum topic is.

And brucey has apparently started mixing business & pleasure by threatening to legally whale on our helpless City Council unless they either staighten up... or buy Capstone turbines.

I know Bruce... I'm just bullshitting you. But Buster's response was pretty good:

Don't you fucking realize you can't send a public letter to a public official that says, Hey Bitch your breaking the law, and unless you buy 1,000 capstone micro energy butt-plugs I going to file a complaint...

That shit is funny! Sorry, just had to post that! Buster actually said something funny, without calling Brucey or I a smelly cunt!

timothy said...
>>This season, pass prices increased another 12 percent to $929.

Tim & others talked about the Bachelor debacle, in a thread started about -- *GASP* -- unfavorable piece on how the mountain is being managed via HARVESTING methods. Excerpt:

At Mt. Bachelor, mixed reviews
Bend Chamber chairman voices concerns; others say everything's OK


By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin
Published: February 06. 2008 4:00AM PST

The chairman of the Bend Chamber of Commerce board of directors fears the region’s economy could suffer from customer dissatisfaction with Mt. Bachelor ski area.

...

Mt. Bachelor, which is owned by Park City, Utah-based Powdr Corp., had its second best season ever in 2005-06 with approximately 590,000 visitors. Visitor counts dropped about 10 percent in 2006-07, according to the Pacific Northwest Ski Areas Association.

This year’s totals are behind last year’s pace, mainly due to a slow start to the season due to late-arriving storms, a national economic slowdown and several weekends of heavy snowfall that have hindered travel, Janney said.

Bachelor is simply being managed for harvesting of profits prior to a sale. "APPARENT" profits are maximized in an imaginary wonderland of NO CAPEX EXPENDITURES. The lifts are breaking, prices are being hiked, wages are slashed, service levels are disastrous... but by God, profits are going thru the roof.

Bachelor is going to be sold.

But it will be destroyed first as Powdr maxes out profits. This is Yet Another Nail in The Central Oregon Economic Coffin. Bachelor is The Only Thing That Keeps This Place Afloat During The Winter. Take away 600,000 Bachelor visits, and you've got Armageddon.

And Bachelor is being managed to the Sleeping Point.

Luckily Bend taxpayers are joint-partners in the continued MARKETING of this calamity. You cannot MARKET your way out of a BAD REPUTATION. People's memory LASTS LONG when they are GOUGED price-wise & are ALSO SCREWED with bad service.

Predicted this last year. Busted lifts & OVERRUN... people were FURIOUS. You can't market away furious.

But luckily you & I are acting as joint-partners in scheme to prop up Bachelor in last gasp of profit maximizing before Powdr blows Bachelor out the hatch. We are spending hundreds of thousands to get people from SoCal (dupes) to stay an extra 24 hours.

Self-fulfilling disaster. Did this last year, when Bachelor was at 110% of capacity, and people showed AND GOT FURIOUS WHEN THERE WAS NO SKIING TO BE DONE. Smart. Let's MARKET our way to 120% of capacity, so as to infuriate everyone who comes here to stand in lift lines at Bachelor for hours.

Good Call Bend. Yet another reason we will go broke. Yet another reason It Will Be Worse Than You Thought Possible.

Developers adjust Bend hotel plans

Well, today we hear that Yet Another Mega-Project has been "Right Sized". Remember... nothing is ever DOWNSIZED in Bend... plans are "adjusted" toward a Better Idea Than We've Ever Yet Dreamed. Geez.

Anyway, The Village can't get funding for ludicrous square footage no one wants, so they have scaled back to merely inane square footage no one wants.

This brings up a side issue raised by BEM:

Paul,

Please put the The Village condotel on the R.I.P. list.

Also, please put the Pine Nursery sport fields. These were also killed by the RE bust.

I'm not sure what to do about this, cuz the RIP list was something I originally thought of as 100% Total Failures. Like The Plaza. Like The Shire (Note to self: Put the Shire on the RIP list). Here was my take on it:

I think the Mercado is about ready for your gravestone. Ain't seen anybody there, not even the guards the signs warn you about, for months now.

Yeah, I've noticed that thing sits untouched.

But I actually consider the fact that they are doing nothing some sort of acceptance of the reality of the Bend RE situation, and not really a failure.

They bought the land at the top, so that's about a half failure... but the crazy fuckers are not building either by financial fiat or by choice. Either way they are not digging themselves an even deeper grave.

The Plaza (and probably The Shire to a lesser extent) is a great example of someone committing 100% to a brain-dead RE concept & losing everything.

The Bend Pine park & Mercato qualify more as 1/2 failures in my eyes.

I want to prioritze these losers...

It seems there are 3 pieces to this. I guess there's the RIP tome: stuff that was built and failed spectacularly. And then there are the Brain Dead projects; like Mercato or the Redmond Water Park; alive but in a coma. And then there's the merely amputated: These are not "dead" projects, but they have been vastly scaled back. This is The Village.

But where does IronHorse fit in? Or Yarrow? These projects were necessarily "built to order" in large measure, so they could never really be classified as "dead"... but they sure as hell are failing... MASSIVELY. They fall more in the "amputee" section. They are missing Huge Chunks they were supposed to have by now.

I don't know. I want to preserve some sort of classification of these things. Bend going broke is far, FAR more a Big Deal than Mercato not getting built. Maybe I'll have some sort of classification: DOA, Brain Dead, and Amputees. Don't know. Ideas?

Speaking of insane, they quote a Bend developer, Brad Fraley, in the Village piece. He actually used to go by a pseudonym, Matt Foley. He gave talks to Realtors & stuff, pumping them up. I actually found a video of one of his recent motivational talks. It's pretty good:


150 comments:

Anonymous said...

The FDA has NOT approved the CAPSTONE micro turbine for human use, but a person I know at the FDA sent me these notes on placing the device in your anus. Note I'm only posting this for the safety of Bend. It's one thing the city-hall issue these alt-energy device's, its another to know how to correctly insert up up your anus.

Good luck, and I hope that we all become rich in the alt-energy bubble in Bend, Oregon.

I can see the day when one city such as Bend, supply's enough energy needs for all of Central Oregon.

****

I have seen many times on the internet many techniques for anal stretching. Many of those will hurt you if you have never tried anything large.

I thought I would offer a method that has worked for me and is the least dangerous in regards to anal tearing. The following method is for men and women trying to get stretched out in preparation for a Capstone Micro Turbine to have a human anal power generation. It is not recommended for other devices, but is a good preparation for beginning on a larger turbine path.

Lets begin by looking at Figure 1. In the picture, you can see that this micro Turbine isn't large and that is the most common misconception that the turbine must be large. It measures 5 and 3/4ths inches tall from tip to base end. It is 2.5 inches across. When buying a turbine always watch for the distinction of "across" versus "around" as a dimension. if you are not careful you can get a turbine way to big or way to small.The one pictured here is one that I used personally and I still have. You will also need a good sized bottle of lube. Any good lube will work.

The part of the anus you want to stretch is located in Figure 2. This area applies to both men and women. Remember that time must be taken to do this stretching, never rush the process.How far up your anus a turbine should go inside of you is not an issue yet.You will want to make sure you are clean inside. It can be accomplished by enema or going to the bathroom.You will want yourself clean inside to avoid a mess(yuk).

Using lots of lube both on the plug and your anus. You will want to put the tip of the micro Turbine up to your anus. As you start pushing it in you will begin to feel some pain. It is normal. You should never however, go beyond your threshold of pain.

At this stage you are not trying to put all the micro Turbine inside yourself. You are merely working at stretching the anus at first. You must stretch out the anus first before you can get to the next step of stretching out the area beyond the anus in Figure 2. Here is a rough time-line for steps.
1) First day, put micro Turbine inside you (not all the way) but stretch out your anus.
2) First week, begin putting more and more of the micro Turbine inside you stretching out your anus even more.
3) Second week same as step 2.
4) Third week Same again as step 2 put now try to shove past the large area of the micro Turbine past your anus. If you fail, repeat step 2 for another week.
5) Once you get the micro Turbine fully inside you, it is important that you keep it there for a minimum of a half hour.
6) Build up the time you can keep it inside you to over an hour in the least. Doing so is stretching the area in figure 2 and is important as this is where the Turbines wiring will be. This area just on the other side of the anus will be where you are tied to the Turbine. Most important do not rush the steps. Use lots of lube. If during any step you should bleed or see blood, stop wait 2 weeks and start all over at step 1 and 2.
Stop completely if you bleed heavy and go see a doctor (very rare). "Bleeding heavy" means that you are literally dripping blood all over or bleeding won't stop. Common sense really. It is common that you will see some blood as stretching causes micro tears in your anal wall and anus.

Before trying to wiring with any Capstone Micro Turbine, I suggest you get another turbine that is 2 inches longer than the Capstone Micro Turbine's Generator with wiring that you are interested in tying int the grid with . If you can put the length of the turbine you measured form the Capstone Micro Turbine to the depth inside you as measured including wiring without bottoming out, you are ready to try the Turbine. Be sure to stretch just before your attempt and use lots of lube.

The above method has 2 advantages.
1) It causes a minimum of possible injury.
2) It is a good way to get started on using longer and larger diameter turbines, as pre-training for alt-power anal energy or for pre-training to alt-energy prison farms.

How do you do that? Once you get used to the thickness of the micro Turbine you can up the diameter of turbine to 3 inches or more and increase the length of the turbine as well. It is best to do this in small stages.

timothy said...

...from old thread...

I am angry. Because how bad are things now if you have people who:

1) Can't wait until night to steal a car?

2) Are willing to be seen stealing a car?

3) Can't even shave their fucking red facial hair and take off their lower-lip ring to steal a car?

This is where we get to people that have so little to lose that they fucking don't even care if they are caught. Or they are so hopped up on something that this seems like a reasonable risk/reward trade off.

How do we know he won't just kill his victim next time because he realizes that with red facial hair and a lip ring, he's an easy catch because his buddy will turn him in for a nickel because his buddy is also a loser?

This is _exactly_ why I started to rethink my plan A 9 months ago when people started telling me that it won't just be house prices coming down. It'll be a whole community. This is _exactly_ why I have to wait&see on whether I'm a long timer or not. There are other places I love that aren't this fucked up.

If Broken Top houses go back down to $350k where they probably started, do I want to huddle shivering and scared in there? How can I possibly enjoy gloating at my timing if people aren't just annoyed at me, but hate me?

Anonymous said...

I think I might have to repost my last quotes I'm glad you responded. I talked about the this 'homeless' issue for months.

The problem it these lots @ Home-Depot, Lowes, Costco, Walmart. The meth-heads are living in them in rundown RV's, and they're having their 'whore' old-lady's to tricks in the lot with baby in the arm. Last few times at South-Walmart I was propositioned by a couple meth-head gals.

I think the reason it happened in the daylight is yes, they're drugged up, and yes they have nothing to lose, and yes some innocent gal with a stroller and her baby are going to die. It's sad that's what it will have to wait for before their is public outrage.

Personally, I think it was time a long time ago for vigilantes to walk these parking lots.

Bend cops are too busy chasing yuppy dog's off-leash, I never see the cops at these lots.

Walmart seems to have this home-less camp RV attitude, and its great I guess,

I don't see any solution except vigilantes. Sorry, I'm just calling a spade a spade. Perhaps this is what it will take to bitch slap city-hall. When the national media finds out that Bend has vigilantes walking women to & from their car, and whistles handed out to women shoppers.

A lot of the problem of course is these damn large lot mall parking lot's, this shit has been going on forever down in Miami, where they harvest organs and pull people under cars in the lots.

Anonymous said...

Homer, We're debating the ramifications of the collapse of the Bend-Bubble.

*** [ A wakeup call to Bend's Misery Index ]

I want to live here, I want to stay here, I want Bend to improve, I don't want 50% homeless, I don't want women&infants getting robbed at knife-point in the Costco parking-lot.

Tim, at what point are you going to get angry? What if it had been your wife, given that you have young children?

I tell my wife to stay out of the parking-lots at night, but this event was at noon.

Bend is burning, and city-hall is fiddling, and talking butt-plugs.

searching for home said...

... and whistles handed out to women shoppers.
***
Whistles? -- give me a gun! Is it legal to shoot a robber in Bend Oregon in self defense?


Timmy -- I also wanted Bend to be my Plan A, based on idyllic childhood memories. Now it's all fucked up. I'm bitter that MY Plan A had to be destroyed.

What other places do you like?

Anonymous said...

A concealed handgun license is very easy to get. I've had one for years. Most of my friends have them as well. Unfortunately, none of us were in the costco parking lot the other day.

Anonymous said...

Last summer in Sheridan, OR, a young couple on meth, walked down their own street. Grabbed a middle age guy doing yard work, robbed him at gun point. Stripped him of his clothes, sexually assualted him. Totured him to get all his credit cards and pin's, and then blew his brains out.

Then they drove his car to the money-machine, and drained his cards. They were caught next day "on camera". A young couple. They were on meth, they were invincible. The female reported that they were fearless.

All of Bends empty crap-shacks are going to become meth-houses.

Somebody in this town has got to quit spending money on PR&Marketing.

As a landlord METH has been a huge Bend problem for over 20 years, We have a huge crisis that needs to dealt with ASAP.

It's not a meth problem per-se, its a human nature problem, the more misery, the more people will turn to meth, and then they become invincible, and do stupid shit.

The problem is minimizing the number of miserable fucking people in this town, that will be attracted to the escapism of the METH lifestyle.

[ There have been violent murders in recent years in Central Oregon, but this Sheridan case is most telling, because it involved a young couple. ]

Homer has said a 100 times, you don't want to buy here when it hits bottom, hell you'll not want to live here when it hits bottom.

How many people have to die, before the BULL/SORE take off the fucking rose-colored glasses???

5,000 homeless in Bend today, what is the growth, are we manufacturing them here? Or are they attracted to the DVA/VCB marketing?

Anonymous said...

If you shoot someone, you have to be able to demonstrate that you feared for your life or someone elses, or you feared that the individual you shot intended to do you great bodily injury. You also better have a concealed carry license or you're in deep doo doo.

Anonymous said...

A concealed handgun license is very easy to get. I've had one for years. Most of my friends have them as well. Unfortunately, none of us were in the costco parking lot the other day.

*

I'm a life member of the NRA, I too have CCL, but that doesn't help a young mother with an infant one iota. Distraction factor and all.

There needs to be presence and security at all these mall lots. There needs to be awareness.

Awareness & a means of alert are the number one method of averting problems, a distracted mother is never going to be on alert.

Andy Grove says only the paranoid survive.

I would hate to see all grannys, nanny's, an mummy's in Bend armed, it wouldn't make anyone safe.

There needs to be presence in these lots that causes the losers to go else where. I know from my own experience they're in your face. They feel like the own the lots, because they live in the lots.

Fine if the owners want homeless to camp in their lots, then they need to pay for 100X security, otherwise the citizenry will fill the void.

Again, the problem is this sea of lots that's only going to get worse as these malls shutdown and become ghost-malls.

Anonymous said...

Most of my friends have them as well. Unfortunately, none of us were in the costco parking lot the other day.

*

These things happen very quickly.

It's imperative to avoid the situation, by not tolerate obvious malcontents to prowl the lots.

A weak or preoccupied women is shadowed to her car, while preoccupied a man presents a knife, a witness with a gun may or may not clearly know the situation. Do you and ask questions? Do you tell him to stop, and then he takes the women hostage, or just attempts to kill everyone.

You eliminate the situation in the first place, with means for people to draw attention ( personal alert devices, sirens, whistles ). You have security presence private, corporate, or vigilante like NYC guardian-angels.

You have ZERO tolerance for obvious losers prowling the lots night & day looking for unlocked doors, and weak members of society to rob.

Arming morons is a crazy idea, as the late Jeff Cooper say's, "Owning a good, no more makes you a shooter, than owning a guitar makes you a musician", It takes years of skill and training to be a gunfighter. There is NO point of arming granny, mommy, ... ( Cooper was always a good friend of mine over the years )

This all goes back to RED-NECK eradication, Bend is now full of pussy wimp calis, and that is why the worst of the worst of the homeless will come to Bend to prey on them.

Thus I do agree with our "SHOOTER's" here in one respect, a couple incidents of meth-heads getting wasted at Walmart/Costco would send a clear signal, but the reality is a poor mother and her child would most likely lose their lives in the cross fire, and/or knife counter-attack.

Anonymous said...

If you shoot someone, you have to be able to demonstrate that you feared for your life or someone else's, or you feared that the individual you shot intended to do you great bodily injury. You also better have a concealed carry license or you're in deep doo doo.

*

Yes, exactly as one of the people who spent years & years in securing these CCL's for the citizenry in Salem, we don't want to lose the right to have these CCL's.

The 'liberals' or gun-haters would want NOTHING more than mis-use of the CCL.

We have motto in the NRA world if you mis-use your CCL, you had better not fear the cops or lawyers, you had better fear everyone. To date with the available of CCL's for many years we have had minimal nut cases misusing them.

I have tried to bring up this crime problem over & over, right now they're in the lots but soon they'll be downtown, they're already in the Drake Park in the summer, I'm not talking the weaker homeless I'm talking the hard cases, the ones who have spent time in prison, and that are meth-heads, they're not hard to spot male or female if you know what to look for.

Like Duncan said the other day there are websites here in Bend that post their mugs.

Anonymous said...

Homer, the below two PDF's are a MUST READ.

***

MGIC (Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation)

Portland Placed On Restricted List

***

Has Portland been black listed from MGIC?

Here is the letter explaining the new tiers.
http://www.mgic.com/pdfs/Customer_Letter_02-06-08.pdf

Here is the black list.
http://www.mgic.com/pdfs/Restricted_Markets_02052008.pdf

Seattle doesn't make the list but Portland does, huh? Maybe that is the surprising part. Bend is saved temporarily, off the radar for now. MGIC most likely just missed Bend & Medford.

Anonymous said...

I'm bitter that MY Plan A had to be destroyed.

What other places do you like?

*

Any small community where everyone knows each other.

In the days of old when a 'stranger' came to town, everyone knew, and watched, and was paranoid.

The cost of a portable society.

Bend given 5,000 destitute today, and most likely 1/2 are meth-heads, BEND is facing an epidemic.

We have said many times, Baker, LaGrande,Joseph, hell Burns. Anywhere highly populated by old-school red-necks all armed to the teeth.

Even though Bend is republican, its a 'BAMBI' variety, the treasure here is good, too good, my guess is we're going to have home-robberys, car-jackings, ... all kinds of stuff in the next few years.

Like I have said, the gates don't do know good, when you have to drive your car out side of them.

Awareness is 99% of survival, first step is to stay aware, and be prepared, and have a mental rehearsed plan, and physical plan.

Even Baker will be like Bend in 20 years, so there is NO way to run away from it, the disease of have/have-nots, easy-money, get-rich-quick, ... it's all a population problem, too many strangers.

Besides Bend attracted through its PR&MARKETING all the get-rich-quick losers it could get, and its not surprising that them and their spawn return to crime when things get bad.

All of this could have been predicted just like the Bend-Bubble, it was clear for all to see.

You can't have a town of old weak rich people, and not expect smart criminals to come and feast.

MStucker said...

Last year a gal friend of mine had her car stolen at eastside Safeway, broad daylight, car open while she put the cart away. He grabbed her keys out of her hand and jumped in the car.
Since then I never leave the car unlocked when I return the cart and am aware of anyone around me when I am alone.Never used to have to lock the car or the house.I also carry, in my car, a cop sized mace spray that shoots 25 feet.
Never had to feel that way in Bend before. It's sad that the rich brought their drug needs with them. The drug dealers followed them here.Drugs got too expensive for the average person, so cheaper meth has now become the least expensive high for the poor. When pot was cheap it was a great little high that didn't turn you into an addict that needed to steal for the high.

timothy said...

>>What other places do you like?

It's not what I like, it's what you like. I've lived in the midwest and the south. To me it may come down to a place where the average Joe isn't hopeless, because it's the state of the average Joe that determines the health of the community. I was in Charlotte for a good spell this summer and Average Joe there is doing well. Fortune 500 companies and tons of jobs with trickle down of all that BOA and Wachovia money into the city. Will it hold up? Don't know. Lots of momentum there, though. For small town I would stay the hell out of the south and go to the midwest close to a working city--Chicago or Columbus, not Cleveland or Detroit.

Note that there are nice places in the East half of the country where the median income is ABOVE BEND's and where the median house price is 140k. Don't tell me there are no jobs there. There are no jobs HERE. Pull up a list of Fortune 500 and look where they are located, because they pull money into the states one way or another.

It's about YOU and what you want. You have to know you like it. I've been there and I like it. You may hate it.

You really have to have been around the country enough to notice the differences. I can't pick places for you. But there's enough variety around the country that there should be 10 great places for you.

I still like Bend, but its trajectory is troubling.

In a year, we could see even the lucky golden people all bummed out and depressed because the area surrounded by bad news.

I'm just not sure. My crystal ball is hazy.

For now I'm here and hopeful but concerned.

Anonymous said...

When pot was cheap it was a great little high that didn't turn you into an addict that needed to steal for the high. - msT

*

Wow, msT I have never seen you philosophical, cool.

Ya, pot makes you paranoid, but METH makes them invincible. Big difference.

You said it, its cheap, and now that 'most' are going to be poor, even more meth will be consumed, which means that more people will be doing stupid shit in broad daylight.

Anonymous said...

It's about YOU and what you want. You have to know you like it. I've been there and I like it. You may hate it. - tim

*

tim that was on the assumption of other's here in the past newbies, that had made the Oregon leap, and wanted a fresh started in Oregon, what Bend used to be. Frequently people here have asked "Where is an old Bend in Oregon" ... Today.

I hear you, for someone like you, you wouldn't have wanted to be here in the 1983 Bend, Hell you should have seen Baker then!

I agree just today googling on 'housing', Tulsa is doing great and so is Tucson, supposedly.

There are always places that are hot, especially near major military bases, as money will continue to be spent.

I'm still staying in Bend, as I have seen crime all my life, I always figured LA would come to Bend, why not, when they're all from LA.

I hardly ever go to the mall-lots, but when I go I always note the gauntlet of beggars wandering the lot, especially the young meth-women holding baby's.

I would prefer everyone stay in Bend, and try to make it a better place, than leave, that is the essence of the problem I noted in this forum over a year ago, that everyone was going to leave, and here we are today your all still here, and still intend to leave, ...

Watching the bubble go down, watching the town go to shit, and nobody cares, ...

Anonymous said...

I also carry, in my car, a cop sized mace spray that shoots 25 feet. - msT

*

Now that's smart thing for a women, you can get little cans, big cans, keep one in a coat pocket, always paranoid, always ready.

That's good advice for women in Bend.

Is there a shop in Bend that women can get the real stuff that stops bears at 25 feet?

timothy said...

OK. Well, regarding the fix? Can it be fixed before it goes to hell? Or does it need to go to hell before it can be fixed. I've never lived in a place that could arrest itself mid-fall, but maybe it's possible.

Don't the excesses truly have to be purged? Doesn't everyone have to be shown to be the fool?

Anonymous said...

Well, regarding the fix? Can it be fixed before it goes to hell?

*

I wrote six posts last week on that issue, perhaps others can respond.

Regarding 'hell', does everyone in the village have to die, before a war is over??

An eye for an eye, does everyone have to become blind before insanity is recognized?

First step, freeze city spending and deal with reality.

Terminate ALL PR&MARKETING. Deal with reality.

Prioritize law enforcement away from condo-sales to criminal activity.

Anonymous said...

It's not a meth problem per-se, its a human nature problem, the more misery, the more people will turn to meth, and then they become invincible, and do stupid shit.

*

Lack of meaningful jobs, complete utter boredom.

A year ago I was writing about Summit High school latch-key kids, parents work two jobs, toss money at junior & sis, who spend money on drugs, drugs come to Bend up I97 via Mexico.

The kids are bored out their fucking minds, the parents are bored, and now un-employed, what do you do?? Drugs.

Parents I know say the #1 alcohol problem isn't kids buying booze, its that some parents host party's for their kids and invite friends, this the real Bend, we're a town of party's and drug's, like msT say's above, it used to be 'expensive' drugs, I'm sure she means cocaine.

Calis' come here and bring junior, there is nothing to do ( they don't hike, bike, walk, ski, ... ) they just want to be enertained and get high, then they hit the 20's, ... some live at home, some live at the homeless camp.

This is Bend.

The city of Bend VCB/DVA budget for PR/MARKETING is almost all spent on party's.

timothy said...

>>Regarding 'hell', does everyone in the village have to die, before a war is over??

I agree. What was on my mind was this...

1) Everyone has to agree that local gov't is in the wrong pocket. What used to work no longer does. This may take a more vocal alternative media. Perhaps even a _genuine_ alternative paper or broadside, local access TV program, and a radio interview and call-in show.

2) Realtors and Mortgage Brokers and Builders really have to cry uncle. I'm not sure what I mean by this yet.

3) Someone has to give a damn about parks and infrastructure. It might have to be someone appealing. My wife got some TV coverage about 10 years ago that got a local law changed. It's all about the messenger.

Anonymous said...

How come the city has no money for snow removal, parks, buses, etc. but comes up with $2.6 million for a settlement of the Juniper Ridge masterplan? And the Bullshiten raises no questions about it whatsoever? This is outrageous!

timothy said...

It's so easy to get sloppy when your cash flow is high. Bend as a city is just like one of its high-living Awbrey Butte citizens.

Hard to throttle back. You made all kinds of dumb commitments, and now they are coming home to roost. You're trying to keep it all together, but it's going to take a wipe out to get you spending right.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

What's this Costco robbery stuff about? Old thread from last wk?

I just left Costco, and there were 3 cop cars out front....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

It's so easy to get sloppy when your cash flow is high.

True. I have made the stupidest purchases of my life when I am cash rich.

Reason to be cautious now, as a matter of fact....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

How come the city has no money for snow removal, parks, buses, etc. but comes up with $2.6 million for a settlement of the Juniper Ridge masterplan? And the Bullshiten raises no questions about it whatsoever? This is outrageous!

As Buster would say:

WELCOME TO BEND OREGON!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

There are other places I love that aren't this fucked up.

Ditto.

For the first time EVER, I am actually considering LEAVING BEND to go on a vacation!

I've never left Bend, cuz there was always cool stuff to do with 50 miles. Now I am just getting a "bad vibe" here... I want to LEAVE to enjoy myself.

Eastern Oregon beckons more & more...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Anyone out & about today? Was it just me, or did the hard-core hillbillies come out of the woodwork?

Not the self-aware friendly types, but the nasty-ass, dumbfucks who think they're IQ is 250, when it's really 50, with massive fat-ass, HUGE hair, tubs of shit married to greasy-haired guys that weigh in at 1/3rd of their titanic weight, and 15 year olds with 3 kids, everyone of them disgustingly filthy, SCREAMING every fuckin word, cuz they think people are dying to hear what they're saying. I'm talking BURNS HILLBILLIES, and not the good ones, the jailbird drunks.

Gat Dang, this town was overrun with these lowlifes today. Musta been a clear shot from Burns today.

As Chris Rock would say:

They's black people, and then they's niggers! And niggers have GOT TO GO!

Anonymous said...

They's black people, and then they's niggers! And niggers have GOT TO GO!
==========

What color were they?

Were they whities? colored?

Calis? with dreadlocks? & birkies?

Anonymous said...

Rumor has it the Mercato is not being built right now because the loans for construction would be loans funded with full recoarse against the developer.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Rumor has it the Mercato is not being built right now because the loans for construction would be loans funded with full recoarse against the developer.

Yup.. last I heard they would only lease once certain leasing "metrics" were reaced. The developer was just happy as hell about it too.

"What doesn't kill me makes me stronger & what not..."

Classic.

Anonymous said...

timothy said...
>>This season, pass prices increased another 12 percent to $929.


Bachelor season pass: $929

Sun Valley season pass: $1990

Non-skiers complaining about season pass prices: priceless

timothy said...

So 12% annual increases seem reasonable?

I think maybe the problem would be people who pay with dollars instead of gold. If you pay in gold, your price went way down this year.

Anonymous said...

Bend Woman thrown to ground with infant, threatend with Knife, @Costco, soon all our 'MALLS' will be like this, ARE YOU CUNTS HAPPY WITH THE NEW BEND??

Make sure all our tourists are first sent to Costco or Walmart on next visit to Bend.

**
SUV carjacked from Bend Costco parking lot

Posted: Feb 9, 2008 05:46 PM

Lots of folks went shopping in Bend on the warmest Saturday - the warmest day, actually - in several weeks. But it was a coldly frightening shopping trip for a Bend woman, pushing her baby in a stroller, who was forced to the ground in the Costco parking lot by a man who pulled a knife, demanded her keys and carjacked her SUV.

Police said the 31-year-old Bend woman was leaving Costco at 2500 Highway 20 with her 8-month-old child in a stroller when she was approached by a young man who brandished a knife and demanded her keys. Neither the victim nor her baby were hurt in the incident, which occurred around 12:35 p.m., said Bend police Sgt. Dan Ritchie.

The suspect was described as a white man in his mid 20s with brown hair, a medium build, reddish facial hair and a pierced lower lip. He last was seen wearing a camouflage hooded sweatshirt and blue jeans.

The stolen SUV was described as a silver 2004 Jeep Grand Cherokee, with Oregon license plates 043BDV. A dog cage-divider in the vehicle is visible from the outside, Ritchie said.

Anyone with information was asked to contact Bend police at (541) 693-6911. Anyone who sees the vehicle should not approach it but instead call 911 immediately, Ritchie said.

Anonymous said...

Regarding 'hell', does everyone in the village have to die, before a war is over??

I agree. What was on my mind was this...

*

Old dumb fucking bilbo, town alki, has said its a complaint driven system, if just 5-10 lazy ass bend citizens got off there arse and got involved for reasons other than selling capstone-butt plugs we could turn this city around.

En masse we mail complaints of substance to the Governor, who is a good man, and I guarantee over-night this city would change it fucking priority.

The only reason that the status-quo remains constant in Bend, is that citizenry, to quote Dunc today, are a bunch of "WUSSES".

Anonymous said...

If ten, or a 100, or more people printed, and mailed the below to the Oregonian, and the GOVERNOR IN SALEM, and and kept at it, Bend would change over-night, the problem is good people in Bend are cowards, afraid that HOLLERN will punish them, trouble is HOLLERN is BK.

It's time to move on.


If everyone signed, and mailed the below to their friends, and their friends of friends mailed it to the Oregonian in PDX, and the Governor in Salem, OR, I can guarantee the rats of BEND,OR would go into hiding for years.

GET OFF YOUR LAZY ASS.

***

I agree. What was on my mind was this...

1) Everyone has to agree that local gov't is in the wrong pocket. What used to work no longer does. This may take a more vocal alternative media. Perhaps even a _genuine_ alternative paper or broadside, local access TV program, and a radio interview and call-in show.

2) Realtors and Mortgage Brokers and Builders really have to cry uncle. I'm not sure what I mean by this yet.

3) Someone has to give a damn about parks and infrastructure. It might have to be someone appealing. My wife got some TV coverage about 10 years ago that got a local law changed. It's all about the messenger.

Anonymous said...

2) Realtors and Mortgage Brokers and Builders really have to cry uncle. I'm not sure what I mean by this yet.


*

Hell yes, the Realtors know this, BEND is heading towards the METH crime capital of the NW, doesn't have to be this way, if good people stand up, we can turn it around, and Realtor, even like msT who we speak the truth.

We don't have to hit bottom. This is a myth.

Long ago Mike Hollern said Bend is a town of non real people, with non real jobs, and non real children.

This is true, but Mike Hollern created this Bend, now he wants to punish the town, for what he created, he has nothing to lose, because he has already lost everything.

We the people of Bend, must demand that Salem, OREGON, step up and clean up our town.

Anonymous said...

Perhaps even a _genuine_ alternative paper or broadside, local access TV program, and a radio interview and call-in show.

*

Get off your ass, get friends and neighbors to write, and call, and talk.

We don't all have to die in this town, before it turns around.

Get a well written statement of complaint, and send it to every State and Federal agency in the Northwest, the parasites who run Bend, will either resign in mass or change.

Bend Economy Man said...

I don't think there's any quick fix in Bend. Bend was oversold - to all comers.

You don't know who you'll get moving into your town when you put the word out in every way imaginable that we want people to move here, when you declare triumph with every bit of national magazine coverage calling this the "best place to..."

When construction was really hot in Bend (2003-2005), it was known across the West as a place where you could get a job in the building trades, cash under the table, no application process whatsoever. And like everywhere else, you could buy a house without the need to prove income.

In 2004 you could move here with a criminal record, a drug habit and not a cent in your pocket and after one year you could have made $50K easy in the construction trades and pulled $100K out of your home equity, and have a nice house, a nice car and a garage full of toys.

The opportunities Bend offered people to "reinvent" themselves during the boom were at least as attractive to dead-enders, dopeheads, social misfits and the chronically violent, desperate and unemployable as they were to successful wine-and-cheese-loving Baby Boomer retirees and high-earning urban-dropout yuppies looking to start a family.

Obviously it's sickening when a lady with her baby gets carjacked at knifepoint at the Bend Costco. That's not the Bend anyone wanted. But we sure weren't being too picky over the last few years when we were Desperately Seeking Newcomers.

Unfortunately a lot of Bend real estate is going to be rented out by absentee landlords to some pretty antisocial elements over the next several years. That's on top of the--gulp--THOUSANDS of people living in the woods like psycho Ewoks. This problem is gonna get worse before it gets better.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The opportunities Bend offered people to "reinvent" themselves during the boom were at least as attractive to dead-enders, dopeheads, social misfits and the chronically violent

Hey! I resemble that remark...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Bachelor season pass: $929

Sun Valley season pass: $1990

Non-skiers complaining about season pass prices: priceless


Bachelor ain't no Sun Valley.

Anonymous said...

Blogger Bend Economy Man said...

I don't think there's any quick fix in Bend. Bend was oversold - to all comers.

*

It's still being over-sold to this day, to this day our city of Bend treasury spends a fortune of taxpayer money still PR&Marketing BEND as #1.

#1 for what? Oh, yea the Bend Brand #1 resort in the West!

This past year, Mike Hollern himself the Godfather of Bend said "Bend is a town of non-real people, with non-real children, and non-real jobs."

Mike might as well said, Bend is a town of parasites, drug-kids, and burger-flippers.

Now that its not possible to make $50k under the table in a year, and grab another $100k HELOC a year, what percentage of these people are going to become anti-social?? 5%??

If you just look at the figure of homocidal maniacs in the US its 4%, where EU is 2%, some say its because we were a prison colony, a lot of the world dumps their worst on the USA, ...

Today we have 5,000 living in thier cars & wood, and parking-lots. Probably be 10,000 by late this summer. That's 500 psych-paths on the loose. In the meantime Bend city cops fuck with yuppy-dog owners to make sure fido is swimming with a leash on in the river.

Last summer when Officer Brown camped all summer at McKay Park, and there was a large bunch of middle-age meth heads living in the bushes near and under the Colorado St Bridge @ Deschutes River, I asked him one day, why didn't go after them, after all they all had off-leash pitbulls.

The cop said "I don't mess with those people".

That's Bend, write tickets where the money is, stay in the bushes, and out-ta site your fine.

Anonymous said...

"The cash incentives for IET through the governor's office are still being negotiated, Lee said."

Nobody even knows how much we're paying IET to put up their fucking office here!!! Read carefully, they're NOT even bringing the R&D jobs here, just the fucking secretary jobs at best. What fucking JOKE!!!!! Remember this is the outfit that takes shit & garbage and turns it into coal, and then liquid-fuel, for $500/gal, government subsidized.

***

Feb. 11, 2008
Richland's IET moving headquarters to Bend
By Pratik Joshi, Herald staff writer

Richland's Integrated Environmental Technologies has moved its headquarters to Bend, Ore.

The new office brings accounting, project management and operation teams that currently are scattered in various locations in Washington, Oregon and California under one roof, said Jeff Surma, president and chief executive officer of Integrated Environmental Technologies.

Also, the move will help the company - which has developed a technology to convert garbage and hazardous wastes into clean fuels and molten glass without producing harmful toxins - to secure loans with help from Economic Development for Central Oregon, a nonprofit group working to promote the regional economy, Surma said.

Click here to find out more!
The company is poised for growth, particularly after recently bagging a $60 million contract from Dow Corning Corp. to set up a plant to recycle chemical waste at a Dow facility in Michigan.

IET expects to hire at least five employees in Bend over the next year, Surma said.

IET's relocation to Bend has taken away potential jobs from Richland, said Gary Ballew, Richland's business and economic development manager.

He said he'll soon talk with Surma to find if the city needed to do more to keep its headquarters in Richland.

But Surma said the move doesn't reflect negatively on Richland, where the company was formed in 1995. The company's technical and engineering staff will continue working in Richland, and he will divide his time between Bend and Richland, Surma said.

The relocation to Bend was favored by many of his employees, Surma said. He said he didn't want to force his employees to move to the Tri-Cities out of concern they might leave.

"I wanted to keep my staff happy," he said.

IET's decision to keep it research arm in Richland is a positive for the community, said Diahann Howard, director of economic development & government affairs at Port of Benton. It'll continue to help develop quality work force in the Tri-Cities, she said.

"We can continue to work with Jeff and his group to spin off another company," she said.

Often, tech start-up companies like IET need money for growth that sometime can force them to relocate, she said, adding the Tri-Cities has established angel investor groups to help out growing companies.

Ballew said he was surprised to hear of IET's move to Bend. The city's business expansion and retention survey didn't see any red flags. Bend's recent growth is attracting young professionals, which may have influenced IET's decision to relocate, Ballew said.

Roger Lee, executive director of nonprofit Economic Development for Central Oregon, said his agency worked for about 15 months to lure IET to Bend. The company will bring high-paying scientific jobs, enhancing the region's growing renewable energy sector, he said.

The cash incentives for IET through the governor's office are still being negotiated, Lee said.

Anonymous said...

Non-skiers complaining about season pass prices: priceless

Bachelor ain't no Sun Valley.

*

I ski everyday. The #1 complaint I have heard over the last two years is "NEVER AGAIN", will I buy a season pass, lifts are down on weekdays, and lines are longer, ... then insult to injury now they're even closing lifts on weekends, which makes lines longer.

Powrz is an RE company, they have sold off so much MT-B land ( bend bus station ), that they have almost now paid off their original purchase price. They don't maintain anything, the food sucks, who in the hell is going to buy it?

Once POWRDZ sells all the valuable land and assets, then they'll sell it to the city, because sure as hell nobody else will buy it cuz POWDERZ will have stripped and sold all the most valuable assets. All that will be left is the forest-service lease, ...

Bend will BUY it a full-price, and then turn around and sell it to another POWDRZ in five years for ten cents on the dollar.

The big debate this year will be how letting them build more condo's at the MTN will somehow improve the lifts.

It was always about RE, and nothing else, POWDRZ is a resort-development company.

Bend is a lying parasitic PR&MARKETING Town.

MT-B has already priced itself out of the local market. It's over, been over for a year now, virtually every media has already posted its death.

Thus the question, when will Homer put MT-B on his death-list.

Devil's Advocate said...

Just had a paranoid but plausible thought: maybe the daytime carjacking was actually an elaborate insurance scam by a stuck flipper... standing by to get pelted with rocks...

Anonymous said...

The opportunities Bend offered people to "reinvent" themselves during the boom were at least as attractive to dead-enders, dopeheads, social misfits and the chronically violent

Hey! I resemble that remark...

*

Hell yes, all this talk about RICH COMING TO BEND, was always BULLSHIT.

Fact is like somebody here paralleled the other day, "HOW was Bagwa different than Hollern??"


Bagwa brought 1,000's of homeless by the bus to Antelope, OR ( Rajaneesh-Puram 1980's ) so they could win an election. Hollern with taxpayer money spent millions attracting the dumbest fuckers in the USA to come to Bend and buy zero-down, interest-only, ARM, Hollern-Ville Crap-Shacks.

***

"reinvent" themselves during the boom were at least as attractive to dead-enders, dopeheads, social misfits and the chronically violent

All gold rushes attract these folks, because they know easy pickings. Hell they didn't need to 'reinvent' themselves most of the contractors in 2002-2005 were all coked up themselves.

I think msT said it well last night, the builders/developers brought their dealers with them, when they came to Bend, and now that nobody has any money, METH is the only drug that is affordable.

I don't think anybody ever intended to 'reinvent' themself, it was more like "HEY", go to Bend, get a house, a HELOC ( what the hell is that? ), maybe work a little to figure the racket.

Hell there are people who are hiring guys fresh out of prison to live in tear-downs and flip them, I know of several homes that had 1/2 dozen ex-cons living in the homes, and then when they were done, they would all move into another fixer-upper. The cons talked, they learned, word got back to jail, that anybody could get a loan.

The folks running Bend are essentially criminal, thus its actually fascinating to see the full circle 'criminal cluster fuck' that is Bend.

It's only said to say mothers with infants being terrorized.

Hollern says "A town of non-real people and their children", Hell Hollern you created this town, your the one that set the racket up, why do you find this surprising?? Its your town. I guess 'real' people are too smart to buy into Hollerns "SMART GROWTH", and thus perhaps all of HOLLERN's non-real ( criminals ) are really the intended consequences, we can only surmise.

MStucker said...

"I tell my buyers and sellers the truth. Don't buy now. And sell as fast as you can at the lowest price you can or stay forever.

Now I'm not sure I'm all in with the "sell at the lowest price you can" thing... I think *maybe* she means mark 'er down & get that White Elephant sold. The lowest PPSF in the neighborhood is The Only Stuff that'll sell."

You are correct in assuming that I don't want my sellers to give that house away. But they need to position it in the neighborhood to have the most attractive ppf.
I won't take a listing if I can't git'er done. Why work for nothing.

bruce said...

Re: a HELOC ( what the hell is that?

Home Equity Line of Credit. Imagine a checking account that you can buy your toys with and pay it all back when you flip the house.

...

Boy, a guy spends the day hiking at Smith Rock, eating burgers with the wife in Priny and listening to the locals talk, and then comes back to a shitstorm he seems to have created.

Promise #1: nothing more here from me about a certain type of buttplug.

Yes, I have a plan. The brilliance of it or not is the question, which only time will tell. If you really want to hear it, buy me a beer. I like feedback, but I'm pretty sick of talking about anuses.

bruce said...

The subprime "Structured Investment Vehicle" (SIV) aka throw a bunch of shit together and make it look nice is now reaching into the insurance industry:

AIG Discloses `Weakness' in Derivative Accounting (Update2)

By Hugh Son

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc., the world's largest insurer by assets, said auditors found a ``material weakness'' in how the company values its credit- default swap portfolio. The stock fell the most in 20 years.

The contracts declined by about $4.88 billion in October and November, according to data in a regulatory filing today. The drop was confirmed by company spokesman Chris Winans. AIG had said in December that the value of the ``super senior credit derivatives'' fell by about $1.1 billion in those two months. The stock retreated 11 percent to $45.16 as of 10:19 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

AIG has lost about a third of its market value in the past year on concern that the U.S. housing slump will reduce earnings and the value of its holdings. The company has units that originate, insure and invest in subprime loans or securities. AIG hasn't yet fully determined the decline in value of the swaps in the fourth quarter, the New York-based insurer said in the regulatory filing today.

``AIG is still accumulating market data in order to update its valuation'' of the portfolio, it said in today's filing.

The insurer said it believes it presently has ``procedures to appropriately determine the fair value'' of the portfolio for the yearend financial statements.

AIG's third-quarter net income declined 27 percent to $3.09 billion on losses linked to the U.S. housing slump.

bruce said...

BTW Another empty house in the neighborhood as of yesterday. Nice smallish McMansion, maybe three years old, right next to another one that has been empty for the better part of a year and is now on its third listing, and on its other side is one that a builder is living in and has been trying to sell for at least six months. The 1200 SW block of Silverlake Blvd.

timothy said...

I've seen a couple houses sell lately. I think one was for cash because it went "SOLD" and then had the moving truck in short order. I'm eager for the sales to work into DIAL to see what kind of "bargains" people people are getting off the list price.

If you are selling, you must be happy as hell (both houses I saw sell have been on the market LONG time).

Anonymous said...

Promise #1: nothing more here from me about a certain type of Capstone Micro Turbie butt-plug.

*

Do you have wear this device 24/7?

Do you take out for a shit? Or does it work on shit? I thought it used your methane, and you just had to eat the right food to keep it operating?

What kind of energy credits can I get if I purchase one? Is bruce the only rep in Central Oregon?

Anonymous said...

Check this out...

http://tinyurl.com/ystjrj

The BLITZ is on to buy RE now.

I am cleaning the puke off the floor.

bruce said...

Re: the Best Buyer's Market in 20 Years! blitz

That is stunning. The local RE folks are really in trouble if that obvious BS is the best they can do. Talk about not living in the real world--they are about as out of touch as Dumbya.

Wasn't there a bit of a buyers market about 15 years ago, if I remember you oldtimers' posts right? Like median prices about 1/3 to 1/2 current when adjusted for inflation?

Anonymous said...

R.I.P list addition

50% of Bend RE folks

Anonymous said...

Wasn't there a bit of a buyers market about 15 years ago, if I remember you oldtimers' posts right? Like median prices about 1/3 to 1/2 current when adjusted for inflation?

*

Even ten years ago, you could BUY @ 1/3 of TODAYS ASK.

We have a long way to go down.

Bend will not be affordable until we see a $120k median, in 1998 you could buy a nice new home, in the inner west side nice neighborhoods for a $120k. Even TODAY I see people ASKING $360k for such homes, the ones selling are taking $280k, but its dropping like a rock.

Fifteen years ago was very cheap, but I think just going back ten year is still 1/3, which its back to OUR magic number -67%, there will be over-correction, but much of Bend will go down 70%.

Even today we have builders in Central Oregon seriously working on $120k homes BRAND-NEW. The race to zero has already started. Their will soon be new homes in Siberian Bend for under $100k. Imagine what that will to the price of the existing.

Lots, material, and labor is NOW dirt-cheap. That's why I'm calling it the race to zero.

Anonymous said...

Another doozy of a BS sight.

http://housingmarketfacts.com/

Anonymous said...

438 bare lots for sale in Bend now.
4 sold in Jan.
51.8 month supply of overpriced lots.

bruce said...

From the Best In 20 Year Rollout:

To Do List
1. Download Your Email Banner from The COBA Website www.coba.org

2. Download posters from the COBA Website

3. Read through the rollout kit. Learn the facts about your market. Be able to explain why it is a
great buyers market.

4. Write up a phone answering script for your office ...”Best Buyers’ Market In 20 Years, The
Bend Chamber of Commerce”

5. Write up a press release of a “Good News” story, send it out and follow up with a phone call. Repeat
Often!! This is key!! We have to produce enough “Good News” stories to move the national “wire” stories from the front page or the lead in story.

The combined efforts of the Central
Oregon Chamber’s of Commerce and
three major trade associations
have been formed for the first
time to reinforce and promote local housing market conditions.

snip

After seeing multiple national
stories printed and broadcast in local media, the six groups partnered to dissuade the notion that the national trends applied to the local market.

snip

Following the initial press release each participating business
will be responsible for releasing “Good News” stories. These press releases will cover a variety of
subjects predominately focusing on “good news” stories and op ed opinions of all participating businesses. Each of the
organizations should actively solicit “good news” and “actual
fact” stories.

Additionally each of the participating organizations are
requested to utilize their advertising strength & partnerships
to “economically encourage” local
media to print and broadcast the stories
.

snip

In the under $300K price range (starter home/1st time homebuyer)
there were a... OK, point of order on not living in the real world: homes that cost 6 times the median average household income ARE NOT STARTER HOMES!...a lot more nonsense on loan availability, including "...100% financing is still available, as are interest only loans and loans for “bruised” credit AND rates are fantastic..."

snip

It can probably be stated that
in any given 20 year period in the United States, an investment in a home was sure to appreciate over that 20 year time frame. The true indicator of the “Buyers’ Market” is the fact that the median price of a home actually dropped from 2006 to 2007.

The pricing chart is important because it indicates that prices
have indeed dropped some from 2006 to 2007. Point of order: if you are talking about the best market in 20 years, why are you just using price date from the last 24 months?

snip

Lot's of pretty ad layouts, and the last page is all about how to write feel good press releases and get them printed in the media.

...


IHTBYB, you need to do another post ASAP, and post this entire thing. Along with some actual historical data, which a couple of the old grouches can provide.

This is an incredible effort at making real problems simply disappear, substituting fully acknowledged feel good information for dealing with actual structural problems in the real estate market and local economy. This is public brainwashing, just like BushCo used to lead us into Iraq.

Folks, everyone needs to read this. GREAT CATCH! Since there was no URL, I uploaded it to the juniper-info server in case it "disappears", or just use the tiny URL above:

http://www.juniper-ridge.info/BestBuyersMarketRollouKitEVersionBend.pdf

bruce said...

PS Sorry about the formatting. Cutting a pasting from a PDF with hard returns is a bitch. I sure missed a lot of them...

bruce said...

Re: Since there was no URL, I uploaded it...

I meant since there was no copyright notice.

dartagnan said...

That means the end of real estate as a career for MOST of Central Oregon.

I'm seeing people I know who were formerly in real estate working at other, low-paying jobs. The other day I ran into one behind the popcorn counter at the Pilot Butte Six. And another appeared in a photo in The Bulletin working as a Hula Hoop instructor.

Amid all the schadenfreude on display here, it might be a good idea to reflect that for the most part these are decent people who are paying a heavy price for other people's mistakes.

dartagnan said...

Bend will not be affordable until we see a $120k median, in 1998 you could buy a nice new home, in the inner west side nice neighborhoods for a $120k.

You can't compare 1998 dollars with 2008 dollars. Figuring an annual price increase of about 4% (the historical average increase for home prices in the US) that $120K house of 1998 would cost more than $177K today. Of course that means the median price of Bend homes still has to drop a hell of a lot to reach a realistic level.

bruce said...

Re: Amid all the schadenfreude on display here, it might be a good idea to reflect that for the most part these are decent people who are paying a heavy price for other people's mistakes.

Exactly, and the sooner we face the music and take the necessary steps to work through this huge overhang of inventory, the sooner things will get better.

LavaBear said...

it might be a good idea to reflect that for the most part these are decent people who are paying a heavy price for other people's mistakes.

***

Or to put it another way:

It might be a good idea to reflect on how these decent people without any skills (save for hula hoops and popcorn serving) were paid exorbitant commissions while taking advantage of other people's mistakes.

Anonymous said...

You can't compare 1998 dollars with 2008 dollars.

*

We're NOT, we're comparing COMP homes ten years ago to the TODAY ASK price.

HISTORICALLY RE appreciates with INFLATION.

We're only seeing inflation seriously go up now, with DUMBYA devaluing the dollar. But historically call it 3%, which would take 25 years to double, but we saw bend homes in TEN years go up 4X. Which would take 50 years if we hadn't been in a fucking bubble. Most of that appreciation occurred from 2001->2005.

Anyways there are tons of charts that show natural inflation in one color versus year, and then RE prices, whenever these do go out of whack we call it a bubble, and then the RE prices fall and they always go under the trend line for inflation.

GIVEN THAT BENDS INCOME HASN'T GONE UP ONE FUCKING IOTA in 20 years, we can call the dollar FIXED for all meaning of comparison in BEND, OREGON. Sure in San Jose where $90k is pauper pay, in BEND, OR that would be a real fucking high-paying JOB.

Twenty years ago people were making $30k/yr, and today they're still making $30k/yr REAL people that work two min-wage jobs, in the Bend service economy.

It does take rocket science to understand that in 1998 homes were affordable (4X income), but few had the down payment.

Then in 2005 you didn't need a down payment. But the homes are trading 10-20X of income.


Its all about income ratio, Bend is NOT a town of RICH, Bend is a town of working-poor.

If HOLLERN wants to have a sustainable biz, and sell suckers homes, then he needs to deliver crap shacks at less than $120k.


Our BEND-BUBBLE was manufactured.

1.) SDC's were deferred, which made hollern, sebastian, et-al rich
2.) TEAM-DUMBYA offered zero-down loans
3.) BEND CITY hall treasury blew taxpayers dollars on PR&MARKETING and got every parasite in the USA to move here.

Now that ZERO-DOWN is over, the people in BEND can't buy crap-shacks. In time people who must SELL will be selling for 1998 prices.

Given the devaluation of the dollar that DUMBYA has created, we probably will see inflation of housing, but that's not clear because materials, labor, and land have collapsed in price.

REMEMBER we're talking about BEND, BEND is fucked, there are plenty of places that AREN'T Bend, but we're talking Bend.

Anonymous said...

Exactly, and the sooner we face the music and take the necessary steps to work through this huge overhang of inventory, the sooner things will get better.

*

I hate to sound like HOMER.

But INVENTORY is NOT the problem.

The problem is depression ( drugs ), the problem is homelesssness.

The problem is lack of jobs, that pay more than min-wage.

The problem is a lack a better tomorrow for most. ( drugs ).

Too many homes were built, sure we can give our 5,000 homeless a home, and have the FEDS give HOLLERN a big check, but that doesn't solve the problem, then you would just have 5,000 welfare recipients, waiting for the next hand-out.

The problem is we're in a bubble, that will take a long time to correct. Too many people came here for the gold-rush, and there are NO incentives for them to leave.

There are NO incentives for ANYONE to move here, yet city of bend, keeps spending more money on PR&MARKETING to bring them here.

The 'inventory' is a TIME problem, its NOT my problem, it may be HOLLERN's problem,

I have NEVER heard anyone here say they had an INVENTORY problem

Perhaps bruce is once again empathizing with the boss-hoggs???

Anonymous said...

Amid all the schadenfreude on display here, it might be a good idea to reflect that for the most part these are decent people who are paying a heavy price for other people's mistakes.

*

Most of these 'good people' came from out of town. I have met tons over the past five years in Bend, and hardly NONE were here before 2002.

They are the gold-panners, they bought kit, loaded the SUV, and came to Bend to find gold (RE suckers), builders came here to find gold ( sell to RE suckers ).

Now with zero-down GONE, and NOTE for any of you the new MGIC black-list is critical, and BEND/MEDFORD will soon be on the list, as they put PDX on the list. Which means 20% down is required.

Nobody hardly had 20% for a $120k home in 1998, how in the hell can they put 20% on a 2008 $300k STD??? They can't prices are going to collapse.

WHO in the FUCK is COBA marketing to?? WHo in the fuck is pay the bill??

This is the last desperate act of desperate people, COBA is trying to create a demand for a POLLACK auction.


DART, after a gold-rush, you have to move on, to the next strike, nobody stayed in a post-gold-rush town, and rotted away, that's because there was NO WELFARE.

Anonymous said...

the sooner we face the music and take the necessary steps to work through this huge overhang of inventory, the sooner things will get better. - bruce

Perhaps bruce is once again empathizing with the boss-hoggs???

*

Bruce, "WE" don't have an inventory problem.

Sebastian & Hollern have an inventory problem.

Their problem, will NEVER be our problem

When I hear this talk, it makes me thing a Sebastian/Hollern bailout fund is in the works.

Its NOT OUR FUCKING PROBLEM Bruce.

Bruce 'we' don't have to worry about the inventory, we don't have to work through the inventory, why are you obsessed with the boss-hoggs problems??

Anonymous said...

It's NOT going to come back,

That is full employment for builders, contractors, realtors, mtg, title, its NOT coming back.

It will take years to clear the inventory, and then the population will be less than today.

All these people are simply going to have to move on to places where their services are in demand.

bruce said...

Re:
"I hate to sound like HOMER.

But INVENTORY is NOT the problem.

The problem is depression ( drugs ), the problem is homelesssness.

The problem is lack of jobs, that pay more than min-wage"


All that shit you are talking about is a result of an economy based on RE and tourisim, and the RE component is gone because of the inventory overhang.

I was referring to the RE business particularly, not all of Bend. It is going to take more decent jobs and some outmigration of those who came for easy-to-get work with subcontractors.

I mean, you go from "Too many homes were built" to "I've never heard anyone say we had an inventory problem." It's the same fucking thing.

Re: there are NO incentives for them to leave

Lack of work is a huge incentive to leave. But it's much more difficult if you don't have enough money left to load up your shit and go.

Re:
The problem is we're in a bubble, that will take a long time to correct.

That's what I said.

Anonymous said...

Read the below, word is BEND is going on the black-list very soon, PDX is now on the list.

It's NOT coming back, like I have said for a year, we're coming back to 20% down. Period. 20% down or the highway. Its game over.

***

MGIC (Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation)

Portland Placed On Restricted List

***

Here is the letter explaining the new tiers.
http://www.mgic.com/pdfs/Customer_Letter_02-06-08.pdf

Here is the black list.
http://www.mgic.com/pdfs/Restricted_Markets_02052008.pdf

Seattle doesn't make the list but Portland does, huh? Bend is saved temporarily.

Anonymous said...

All that shit you are talking about is a result of an economy based on RE and tourisim, and the RE component is gone because of the inventory overhang. - bruce

*

Bruce, ITS GONE because zero-down is gone, its GONE because all the sleazy BEND MTG outfits got shutdown.

The INVENTORY is a symptom, of the fucking problem, NOT THE FUCKING PROBLEM.

The problem was ZERO-DOWN, and its been solved.

The builders created their OWN inventory problem on the assumption that and endless stream of nitwits would come to Bend Oregon, and buy crap-shacks.

Their 'inventory' is NOT our problem. The 'inventory problem' is HOLLERN's problem. Period.

Most of these homes will never be occupied, smart towns are already tearing these STD's down, and selling the lots to neighbors in order to expand their yards.

Anonymous said...

Let's use the gold-rush analogy.

Bruce is saying we have a gold-pan problem, cuz all the minors left their kit when they packed and left.

The gold has played, the GOLD, was EASY-MONEY, created by TEAM-BUSH, that was the problem.

What is left now that we have played out our gold-mine, is the trash that get-rich quick gold rushes always leave behind,

What do gold-rushes leave behind?? Ghost-towns.

What do Eastern-Oregon people do with ghost towns?? We steal the materials and gradually the ghost town disapears.

Anonymous said...

I was referring to the RE business particularly, not all of Bend. It is going to take more decent jobs and some outmigration of those who came for easy-to-get work.
- bruce

*

Then why did you use the word's "WE have an inventory problem".

Do you see yourself as part of the Bend RE industry??

Or was "WE" have an inventory problem?

I'm confused, because other than msT, nobody here has ever identified themselves as part of the RE business.

timothy said...

>>Figuring an annual price increase of about 4%...

A better number is 1% above inflation. Longer-term studies (in Holland) show dead-even with inflation.

Looks like inflation was averaging about 2.5% over that period, so I'll give you 3.5% for what houses "should" have done.

bruce said...

Re: Or was "WE" have an inventory problem?

The entire community is being dragged down by too much housing. The whole community was the "WE". Sorry for any confusion.

bruce said...

Re: What do Eastern-Oregon people do with ghost towns?? We steal the materials and gradually the ghost town disapears.

I see that happening already. I came across a brand new JennAire island insert stove and Frigidaire dual oven when I was riding towards Brookswood to go teach the other week. They still had the protective tape on them, and other than a couple of missing parts that fell off, were fine.

bruce said...

Re: Bruce, ITS GONE because zero-down is gone, its GONE because all the sleazy BEND MTG outfits got shutdown.

It's not gone. It's right here in my neighborhood. And it requires a painful workout.

Anonymous said...

What is left now that we have played out our gold-mine, is the trash that get-rich quick gold rushes always leave behind,

What do gold-rushes leave behind?? Ghost-towns.

What do Eastern-Oregon people do with ghost towns?? We steal the materials and gradually the ghost town disapears.
================

Man, there's Gold in them there Ghost towns!!!

I mean RE gold, not gold gold. Although some people are panning up there, since gold is at $900/oz.

But forget about the gold panner hobie-dudes.

I am talking RE gold. Invest in RE. Now! Today, you can bye many lots in old ghost towns. Pamplin (Billionaire from PDX) bought Shaniko (old sheep town ghost town). Many old ghost towns are abandoned. Get them now on the cheep.

Towns like Bourne, Halfway, Greenhorn, Cornocopia, Sumpter.

Check out this url. Photos of the way it used to be and will soon return to the future.

Outhouses out back. Off the grid. It is the good life!

http://www.bakerlib.org/webphoto/exhibit2/vexid2.htm

timothy said...

Bend Bulletin. Front Page Story. Wait for it...

High rents and scarce units available because of the housing bust. People can't buy so they have to rent and no one can find a place and everything is expensive! Oh no!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

High rents and scarce units available because of the housing bust. People can't buy so they have to rent and no one can find a place and everything is expensive! Oh no!

Yup... the usual BULLSHIT.

This is just a piece to sell rentals to brain-dead doctors & nurses (ie The Only People With Money In This Town).

"BUY A RENTAL HOUSE! THERE'S A SHORTAGE OF HOMES IN BEND OREGON! RENTS SKYROCKETING IN BEND!"

They post one of these 100% BALD FACE LIES every few months. Never ends.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

No... I take that back.

BUT A RENTAL HOME IN BEND! A BRAND NEW ONE! THERE IS A SHORTAGE!

I want to keep the line of landlords long and desperate, so when I wear out the brand spanking new shit shack I'm renting now, I want to ensure that there is another sucker lined up, ready to rent me a brand ass new home for 1/4th their monthly payments.

BUYERS MARKET! BUY NOW! BE A LANDLORD! ENJOY THE GOOD LIFE! OWN YOUR OWN STD SUGAR SHACK! YOU GET RICH! ME LOVE YOU LONG TIME!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY!

timothy said...

Well, the story is actually about $600-$700 busted-up-and-nasty apartments.

People losing their houses going to apartments. Day laborers having trouble making the payments.

It's really going to be multiple families in giant houses, I guess. The apartments are so full they are hiking prices. The houses are empty.

There has to be a cap on the apartment rates--they can't very well bump into the rental house rates, can they?

Anonymous said...

Not all of Oregon, is like Bend,Medford, or PDX. Salem gots jobs, and gots gubment jobs,the best jobs.

***

Salem dodges housing slump

Home sales fall 16 percent in 2007 but prices remain strong, analysts say

MICHAEL ROSE
Statesman Journal

February 12, 2008

It wasn't long ago that home buyers felt obligated to pounce on the first good deal that came along. Home sales were sizzling and another bidder was certain to make an offer.

Today, house "for sale" signs seem to be sprouting like dandelions across the Salem area.

"You could throw a rock and hit three," said Bob Riggi, a real-estate broker with Windermere/ Pacific West Properties Inc. in Salem. Buyers in the Mid-Willamette Valley have an abundance of choices, and sellers sometimes need to trim their expectations, but Riggi and others in the real estate industry say that's no cause for alarm.

The Salem area has avoided the double whammy of sluggish sales combined with falling prices. Demand for housing remains strong enough to maintain prices, averting the downward spiral seen in many other regions.

Housing Predictor, a real estate analyst group, forecasts that housing prices in Salem will appreciate 6.5 percent in 2008. Portland, Eugene, Corvallis, Medford and Bend will experience price deflation.

But the Mid-Willamette Valley real estate market of a few years ago -- in which double-digit price increases and booming sales were routine -- has downshifted. Real estate agents insist that the slowing is a return to a normal, healthy market.

"The pieces that drive our housing market keep us in better shape than most of the nation," said Byron Hendricks, the president of Prudential Real Estate Professionals in Salem.

The area's stable employment base, including the many jobs provided by state government, have helped sustain home prices. Newcomers, such as Jill Bortz, a former Texas resident who was recruited by Salem Hospital's business office, also are supporting the market.

"I had the pick of anything. There were so many homes available," said Bortz, who chose a blue, ranch-style house in southeast Salem. She bought the three-bedroom house, which was built in the 1950s, for about $169,000.

Her new home had been listed for about $179,000. That's well below the Mid-Willamette Valley's average sales price of roughly $249,000.

Real estate agents say they're optimistic about 2008. Peter Rogers, the president of Coldwell Banker Mountain West Real Estate Inc., is forecasting a 5 percent increase in home prices and a 10 percent increase in the number of sales.

John Lee, a manager and principal broker with Re/Max Equity Group, said the Salem office currently ranks as the top-selling Re/Max location in Oregon and Southwest Washington for units sold.

In contrast, it has been one bad report after another on the national real estate scene:

# The Commerce Department said recently that sales of new homes dropped by 26.4 percent last year. That marked the biggest decline on record, surpassing the old mark of a 23.1 percent plunge in 1980. Sales of existing homes also dropped 13 percent last year, the biggest decline since 1982.

# A key home price index showed that U.S. home prices fell by a record 8.4 percent in November. The decline in the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller 10-city composite home price index was the biggest year-to-year drop since a 6.7 percent decrease in October. The November performance was the 11th consecutive monthly decline.

"Nothing in these numbers suggest a bottoming out. The numbers universally are disappointing," said David Blitzer, S&P's managing director and chairman of the index committee.

Although the Mid-Willamette Valley's housing market might be resilient, it too has experienced a slowdown. The number of home sales here slipped by nearly 16 percent in 2007 compared with 2006, according to the Willamette Valley Multiple Listing Service.

Prices remain strong, although they are increasing at a slower rate. The average price for the area, including Marion, Polk, Linn and Benton counties, rose about 7 percent in 2007.

Portions of the Mid-Willamette Valley are still seeing big price increases. For example, South Salem's average sale price increased more than 18 percent from 2006 to 2007, according to multiple listing service data. South Salem's average sale price is about $311,000.

Oregon State Economist Tom Potiowsky said he expects local home prices will be essentially flat in 2008.

"I think you'll see further drops in the rate of price appreciation," he said.

Salem, as well as the Portland metropolitan area, were latecomers in experiencing a run-up in housing prices. The national trends, as a result, might be a bit slower to reach the housing market, the economist said.

Other parts of Oregon's economy are already feeling the effects of the national housing slump. The construction industry has lost jobs and the wood products companies are hurting because of the slowdown, Potiowsky said.

Anonymous said...

OMG
My brain just kicked in, there is a really good side to the ad BLITZ!
Finally the sellers will be berated with bad news in Bend.."It' the best buyers market in 20 years". They are going to have to learn how to position their homes, in the market,in order to get the one buyer out there to think they should buy that sellers home.
Now, the other key, is educating the RE folks to read stats and understand them. Walk away if a seller won't be realistic. Pricing a home to sell, is difficult at best, in a declining market without the seller thinking they are leaving money on the table. Sellers may have to write a check to close or turn in the keys if they can't.
I don't believe part of the blitz statement. The "best" or the "20 years" are wrong.The best was about 1992 when the med was under 100k.

Anonymous said...

http://www.zillow.com/quarterlies/QuarterlyReports.htm

Even Zillow's picking on poor old Bend/Redmond/Sisters.

Anonymous said...

The group is sponsoring the $80,000 campaign, being paid for by nine local home builders, along with Parr Lumber, Riverview Bank and Countrywide Financial.

The above just off the press, from PDX, note here that PARR,RB,&CW ante $80k, real money to PR world. What about Bend, how much REAL money?? All we saw in the COAR kit was a tutorial on how to write a press release a real threat that said..."If you advertise,tell your media to print your PR, or you'll discontinue advertising."

Hey,Bend PARR/CW/CACB put up some real money and dump your lip-stick PIGS!!!

Vancouver PAYS & BIG, and BEND tells minions to deliver THREATS to the BULL/SORE, BEND is FUCKED.

**********

Why Wait, Buy Now!!!

Here is a follow up to the Buy Now Campaign from the Columbian:

Waiting to buy a new house in Clark County? Local builders say now is a good time to do it, and they’re spreading the word with a new ad campaign and event to showcase their products.In April, a tour of more than 30 new homes will wrap up the “Buy New Buy Now” promotion launched this month via television and radio ads that will reach about 890,000 people a week, according to the Building Industry Association of Clark County. The group is sponsoring the $80,000 campaign, being paid for by nine local home builders, along with Parr Lumber, Riverview Bank and Countrywide Financial.The advertisements urge buyers to consider low mortgage interest rates and reduced new-home prices, said Morall Olson, vice president of the 1,050-member building industry association.“We want to get the word out that it’s a great time to buy,” he said.‘Perception of uncertainty’The TV and radio spots also downplay the notion that home values could continue to slide in Clark County. A total of 312 new and pre-owned homes were sold here in January with a median price (half for more, half for less) of $245,383. It was a 7 percent decline from the median price of $263,900 for the 517 homes that sold in January 2007.The cooling market has kept buyers riding the fence, said Olson, owner of MJ Olson Enterprises, a Kalama-based custom home builder.“The reports create a perception of uncertainty for anybody looking to buy or sell. It scares them,” he said.

Anonymous said...

Even Zillow's picking on poor old Bend/Redmond/Sisters.


*

It was just a matter of time, thats the problem with being #1 on the upside, it means that on the down, your also going to be #1.

I guess thats' what DVA/VCB means when they say "BEND is #1".

Bend is a 'Brand', a brand that's a lot like a used Kotex.

That should be our new Bend icon, instead of the city shield, we should have some U-Haul cali roadkill.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

“The reports create a perception of uncertainty for anybody looking to buy or sell. It scares them,”

Remember way back when, when we were scared INTO BUYING homes?

No one had a problem with THAT perception.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Used to be>:

Buy now or you might never be able to afford to again!

Now it's:

Buy now, or I will not be able to stay in business to SCARE YOU AGAIN!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I saw a comment in the Cascade Business Buttwiper, acknowledging a 25% decline in RE prices since last Summer!

I surprised they acknowledged things were even "soft".

Quimby said...

I missed this earlier. It's a WSJ article from January about "rural gentrification". Buster, I know you've talked about it before but I believe this is more precisely the problem in the Inter-mountain West (Bend included) than simply the broad brush-stoked "cali" term we throw around.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120069319738001353.html

This is a big fucking problem in my book. Yet we have met the enemy, and it is us.

Quimby said...

More info...

An in-depth study by the Housing Assistance Council on Gentrification, focusing on three communities/counties with different degrees and drivers of the process:

Chester County, PA
Teton County, ID (most applicable to us)
Beaufort County, SC


www.ruralhome.org/manager/uploads/Gentrification.pdf

Quimby said...

So looking around at different rural communities throughout the NW and Rockies, this rural gentrification seems to be an unstoppable economic force. If its not Calis, its Texans or just plain "Big City" people.

How would a town (that would buy truckloads of Busters "Don't Bend Our Town" bumper stickers") resist this type of influx and extinction of its rural/small identity by the rapidly migrating amenity whores? I'm not one for legislation but it is it the only possible course of action to attempt to prevent this?

Outlaw gated communities and chain stores. What else could you legally do?

Quimby said...

>> The group is sponsoring the $80,000 campaign, being paid for by nine local home builders, along with Parr Lumber, Riverview Bank and Countrywide Financial.

*

We should pool some $$$ and take out a prominent billboard or newspaper ad time to coincide with this blitz that reads:

**WORST** time in 20 years to buy a house! Why catch their falling knives? http://bendbubble2.blogspot.com

I doubt they would even print it. Can you imagine the outrage???

Quimby said...

Hmmm, the HAC has some interesting searchable housing data:

Here's some info on Oregon. Unfortunately, its based off the 2000 census data but you should be able to put together some trends at least.


http://tinyurl.com/27n4xn

Anonymous said...

quim,

Overall ten or more years ago Montana had a new-yorker problem, but Bend ( Oregon ) has long had a cali problem.

The good news is the locusts can go anywhere, and they almost always be faddish, and Bend is OVER, nobody cool is going to Bend.

All you have to do is look at the music scene, we're NO Austin, TX. The movie Scene, We NO Sundance, ..

Ahh... The Golf scene that is where we SHINE, about three months a year! No way to run a biz.

MT-B will be dead in a year, you can't sell the private land under-neath, and deny maintenance, and piss off your old time customers, and raise prices, and lengthen life-lines. MT-B is FUCKED it will be on Homers tomb-stone by end of year.

We don't have the ambiance of McCall, ID. We aren't a resort like Aspen ( Population 6,000 ). Bend is now a base, a large U-Haul Center, a U-Store parking garage at the end of the highway. A launching off point.

Given how badly our baby-boomers have lots their life-savings in the bubbles; dot-com, RE, alt-energy, ... They'll have only enough money to retire in Flint, MI.

I think folks in Sumpter, or Cornucopia, or Fields, OR. Will be safe for awhile from the Boomers. They generally want to be within 35 miles of a decent hospital.

It ain't going to be Bend. The Bend brand is now FUCKED, its a used Kotex, its road-kill, its last nights vomit on the side-walk in front of the D&D. Even a child would say "YUK", about Bend, OR. This is what happens when you over-sell a place, but put nothing into infrastructure ( SDC ), or like MT-B, you spend $250k on getting them to come, but then treat them like shit when they get their.

Bend only wanted one time tourists, they must have known they weren't coming back, or maybe given that the goal was only to sell a condo time-share, they didn't even want them to come back.

You Reap what you Sow, and Bend has reached nirvana. Bend is now Fucked.

Note, that even PDX/VAN are ante-ing $80k of THEIR $$$ to reel in the fish, not Bend, this town is SO FUCKING used to using taxpayer dollars, the boss-hoggs wouldn't even think of using their own money to make that last sale.

No, its all over now, just a slow death.

A ghost town.

You folks MISSED my point the other day, back in the day there were ghost towns all over eastern-oregon, after the 1960's out every summer I noted they slowly dissapeared, there was 'fields' when I first went there, they had furniture in the houses, and old wagons, and autos pre-depression, and gradually people stole everything in the 70's, but the 80's they tore down the buildings for wood, cuz yuppy's would pay for weathered wood. Now the old ghost towns are gone.


This is the way of Bend, OR, it will take a few years, but people will gradually take the contents of the STD's, and then strip them for 2by4's.

This is Oregon, over the long term everything gets used by somebody.

Anonymous said...

Staying on Track KIDD comes to Bend to Golf, so many golf courses, and NO golfers, that's ok, the ELK need a place to graze. Tetherow the great white hope of Bend, thrown together during the depression, what courage these investors have with other-peoples-money.

***

Staying on course in Central Oregon
Architect David McLay Kidd, designer of Bandon Dunes, settles in Bend to lead his company and raise his family
Published: February 13. 2008 4:00AM PST

This nondescript space on the west side of Bend could easily be mistaken for the office of a mortgage broker or a financial planner.

The office is like any other: It has wooden desks with computers, a conference room with a long table, a break room with a plain white refrigerator and, of course, a coffee pot on the counter.

But the two persimmon woods in an old golf bag may clue in a visitor that the work being done is anything but usual.

This is the U.S. headquarters of DMK Golf Design, the company started by Scotsman David McLay Kidd after the critically acclaimed golf architect designed Bandon Dunes Resort’s namesake course.

Kidd’s design, the first of three courses to open at Bandon Dunes, made the sparsely populated Southern Oregon coast a must-visit for golfers around the world. It’s a fixture near the top of every list of best courses in the U.S.

Kidd is hoping to bring that same magic to Tetherow in Bend, which is set to open this summer.

The 40-year-old Kidd, though, is no outsider to Central Oregon, at least not anymore.

The man who was picked to design the first full-length course at St. Andrews in Scotland in nearly 100 years is creating his world-renowned golf courses as a permanent resident of Bend.

“My first reactions (when I saw the Tetherow site in 2004) were, ‘I would love to do the golf course,’ says Kidd in a Scottish accent. “But almost on its heels, very quickly that same day: ‘Maybe I could live here, too.’ I immediately started talking to my wife.”

Kidd’s company is paid millions for his designs, but you wouldn’t know it by meeting him.

When I met Kidd on Friday, he was wearing a T-shirt and jeans and looked more like a greenskeeper (he is the son of a Scottish greenskeeper, Jimmy Kidd) than one of the hottest architects in golf.

The charming Kidd is quick with an anecdote, understanding perfectly the relationship between an interviewer and his subject. Perhaps that comes from the dozens of magazine articles or the two books written about him and his work.

One of his stories might surprise the many Oregonians who know Kidd best for Bandon Dunes.

Central Oregon

His first trip to Oregon wasn’t to the coast. It was to Central Oregon, in the early 1990s.

Kidd was surveying a potential course site near Smith Rock near Terrebonne for the Scottish development company he was working for at the time.

That course never materialized. But when Kidd was summoned to Oregon years later by Mike Keiser, the owner of Bandon Dunes, he took a plane to the coastal town of North Bend to look at a barren piece of land about 25 miles south of there that later would launch his career.

The Bandon Dunes project was being billed as a true Scottish-style links course in the United States on terrain similar to that found in Kidd’s homeland.

But when Kidd heard that he was flying into the North Bend airport, he was confused.

“I said no, no, no. I’ve been to Bend. It was hot as hell, and it was dry, and it was nowhere near an ocean,” Kidd recalls. “My first reaction with my first trip to Bandon was (that) my flight took me to a place called North Bend in Oregon, and I had already been there. But I hadn’t. I’d been here (Bend).”

Luckily, the land in Bandon was actually perfect for what Kidd and Keiser wanted to create.

Kidd’s efforts at Bandon Dunes turned him from an unknown young designer — he was only 31 when the course opened in 1999 — to a household name in golf design.

Soon after Bandon Dunes opened, he met his future wife, Jill, who grew up in Coos Bay, just across the bay from North Bend.

The two met on a return trip to Bandon by Kidd, who eventually took her around the world for two months during their courtship.

The two also developed a fondness for Central Oregon and spent a week each year in Sunriver, even though Kidd was primarily living in London.

The Kidds decided that Oregon would be a good place to raise their two young children — son Campbell and daughter Ailsa — but David Kidd wasn’t keen on living on the coast.

“The weather can be pretty dire (on the Oregon Coast) through the wintertime, just watching it rain,” Kidd says. “As a Scotsman, I did that for all my childhood. I don’t need to do it now. I wanted to find somewhere I can set up home for my family, somewhere I can operate a business out of that was close enough to communications that I can easily get in and out of all of the other projects.”

Tetherow

When DMK Golf Design was hired to design Tetherow, Kidd saw an opportunity.

He wanted to find a place to not only raise his family, but to attract the best young golf course designers he could find.

Bend fits that bill, Kidd says.

The Bend staff includes three young designers along with the company’s chief financial officer, Jan Cunningham.

The office dynamic seems unique, a place where the boss jokes around with his employees as if they were his equals rather than his subordinates.

Kidd bought the first lot at Tetherow — which is expected to open in June — and plans to build a home there soon.

But Tetherow, the fifth course Kidd has designed in the U.S., had to be more than just another golf course because of how familiar his name is in this state.

“Tetherow was that much more important because having done Bandon and setting my own benchmark so high, I knew there would be a lot of people with high expectations,” Kidd says. “I instantly saw it, that this was a great site. It’s got great topography for golf.”

Will the course meet the high standards Kidd — who considers himself a “naturalist” because of the way he melds the course with the site’s natural aesthetics — has set for himself?

He seems to think so.

“The course will play like a traditional British Isles links course,” Kidd says. “To golfers who love golf, I think they are going to just love it. To the occasional golfer that is used to desert golf that is bright green (grass), I think it is going to be a shock. Because it’s not going to be that. My argument is that there is plenty of that.”

The work

Of course, an international golf course designer isn’t anchored in Central Oregon.

In fact, Kidd had just returned from a two-week trip to Costa Rica and Florida when I spoke with him Friday.

Kidd’s most famous project is the seventh course at St. Andrews — yes, that St. Andrews — which will open for play in June.

St. Andrews Links Trust chose Kidd in 2002 to design what is now known as the Castle Course, one of the most anticipated projects in golf.

“I think any golf course architect would have sold their mother for that, nevermind their grandmother,” Kidd says. “It’s the home of golf, a waterfront project for the Links Trust. It was the near-perfect set of circumstances.

“It was the first time they looked to build a full-length golf course in 100 years. It doesn’t even happen once in a lifetime; it happens once in every three or four lifetimes. So amazing to be at the peak of my career at exactly that moment, and it wasn’t lost on me.”

By creating the course, Kidd joined a list of the greatest names in course design who have also worked at golf’s most hallowed grounds, including Tom Morris (Carnoustie in Scotland), Harry S. Colt (Hoylake in England) and American Alister MacKenzie (Augusta National in Georgia, Cypress Point in California).

“You really have to pinch yourself, and think, ‘God, this is amazing for a greenskeeper’s son,’ ” says Kidd.

The Castle Course, which will be open to the public, is another in a line of world-class daily fee courses in Kidd’s portfolio.

Kidd has also designed some ultraprivate courses, such as financial gurus Charles Schwab’s and George Roberts’ Nanea course in Hawaii.

But creating public courses has become important to Kidd, who saw how Bandon Dunes mushroomed into a monstrous success, largely because the public can play the course.

“I realized (after Bandon) that public is actually really important to my long-term career development,” Kidd says. “It then became important to me to fight a little bit harder (to design a course) when I knew a course would likely be easier to access. Tetherow is private — there is no getting around that. But it’s not going to be ultra-, ultraprivate. You’ll be able to get on it.”

Interestingly, now that he is at the top of his profession, Kidd is considering slowing down a bit.

“The cool thing now is that I’ve reached what I perceive is the next stage of my career,” Kidd says. “I got to do Bandon at 30, and between 30 and 40 I managed to do everything and more that I ever hoped to do with the Castle Course and Nanea.”

And now Kidd wouldn’t mind settling in here in Central Oregon, and letting his younger designers take the reins of DMK Golf Design.

“Now I have this core group of young-buck designers who I am molding in my image, and (I will) be able to watch them over the next 10 years achieve everything they want to achieve, and do it as a team,” Kidd says. “That’s where I am now. So I see the next 10 years as me doing a little less traveling, and seeing them do a little more. And me making my home here in Bend and watch my (children) grow up and getting involved in the community as much as I can.”

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

But when Kidd heard that he was flying into the North Bend airport, he was confused.

“I said no, no, no. I’ve been to Bend. It was hot as hell, and it was dry, and it was nowhere near an ocean,” Kidd recalls. “My first reaction with my first trip to Bandon was (that) my flight took me to a place called North Bend in Oregon, and I had already been there. But I hadn’t. I’d been here (Bend).”


Wow, he sounds like he really loves it here.

Anonymous said...

Wow, he sounds like he really loves it here.

*

He owns a BIG expensive lot up at tetherow, that allegedly cost $750k, but has $300k BofA note on it ( DIAL ), given that nobody is building up there? That I can see.

It sounds like he's opening an office in Bend, why not? I'm sure the same people that sold him the $750k lot for $300k, gave him a $5k/mo office for $500/mo, its nice to have people who love you.

***

Just 2-3 weeks ago we had a BULL story published here that golf-courses can't even find people to play anymore. Bend area has 24 golf courses, and another dozen coming on line this year ( see EDCO website ).
Too many golf courses, not enough golfers. Economy fucked, not a problem, charge $10/game to play, trouble is you can't pay the maintenance. Most of our golf courses can't get new members to be $50k to join, and they can't even get the public to pay $50/game.

Damn good thing that Kidd can design courses for the richest people in the world, sounds like an ideal biz, doesn't have a damn thing to do with Bend. He's got 2-3 employees, probably all he'll ever need.

Once again, the BULL shows that Bend is recovering.

***

I really think kidd was sold a bill of goods, most likely he didn't get paid well for the Tetherow design, which is why they sold him the subsidized lot, now he's got it, might as well be here, to develop it, Bend ain't that bad, and you know he's getting a sweet deal on the office building given that the same guys who own Tetherow on tons of empty Bend commercial.

Sad that Kidd designs courses in the town best known for the end of the golf fad, and surplus golf-courses.

If I were Kidd, I would be looking at creative designs for these courses, like water-parks, amusement, ... There are going to be 100's of golf-courses that need to find new use, and a guy like Kidd would be great architect to hire to find and/or create a new use or design.

Frisbee golf courses?? Hell of Aaoron of the SORE, is a world-class frisbee golfer, I'm sure he would like to see Tetherow go that way, and would be willing to pay $300/game.

Anonymous said...

Ok, the Oregonian, has now picked up the story of the day. A little mention on the MAGIC that is Bandon Dunes, for ONE REASON only is it's MAGIC, because 'BANDON' spent $35M on a taxpayer funded private airport so the richest people in the world could privately fly in&out. The FUCKING relation to BEND OREGON?? Our own VCB/DVA PR&MARKETING are the folks who got the $35M Bandon BOND passed. Small world.

If Tetherow does 'MAGIC' it will only be if someone can put in a helicopter pad from Redmond to Tehterow, so the visiting rich to Bend, don't have to see our WALMART city of strip-malls.

This is why PRONGHORN is hot, they have a private road from the air-port.

***

The Scot who designed Bandon Dunes is setting down roots in Bend
Posted by The Oregonian February 13, 2008 06:57AM
Categories: Central Oregon, Oregon Coast
David Wagner/Bulletin

Here's a great profile in the Bend Bulletin about golf course designer David McLay Kidd. He didn't just do Bandon Dunes. A new course at THE St. Andrews set to open in June is also a Kidd design. The full story.

This nondescript space on the west side of Bend could easily be mistaken for the office of a mortgage broker or a financial planner.

The office is like any other: It has wooden desks with computers, a conference room with a long table, a break room with a plain white refrigerator and, of course, a coffee pot on the counter.

But the two persimmon woods in an old golf bag may clue in a visitor that the work being done is anything but usual.

This is the U.S. headquarters of DMK Golf Design, the company started by Scotsman David McLay Kidd after the critically acclaimed golf architect designed Bandon Dunes Resort's namesake course.

Kidd's design, the first of three courses to open at Bandon Dunes, made the sparsely populated Southern Oregon coast a must-visit for golfers around the world. It's a fixture near the top of every list of best courses in the U.S.

Kidd is hoping to bring that same magic to Tetherow in Bend, which is set to open this summer.

Quimby said...

RE>> Kidd

Just what we need, another smug arrogant prick from god-knows-where. And a fucking "architect" (said with reverence) to boot. Doesn't even know that there is a Farewell Bend and a North Bend.

Tetherow to the BULL: Print this Press Release.

BULL: Duuuohhhh, OK Boss!

LavaBear said...

Just what we need, another smug arrogant prick from god-knows-where. And a fucking "architect" (said with reverence) to boot. Doesn't even know that there is a Farewell Bend and a North Bend.

****

I've met the guy and he's not even close to smug or arrogant or a prick. He's from Scotland and sure enough Oregon wasn't much on his radar until he designed Bandon. Goes back to Tim's point last week about people east of Ontario don't have Oregon on their internal maps.

Anonymous said...

SPRING 2008 PUBTALK SPEAKER LINEUP SET - EDCO

Plan now to join PubTalk regulars for stimulating presentations and interaction with our keynote speakers:

January 17th
Allen Alley, currently Deputy Chief of Staff of Governor’s Office, and co-founder and Chairman of the Board of Pixelworks, Inc. Pixelworks designs and develops “system on chip” semiconductors and software that drive the flat panel display industry.

February 21st
Dave Hersh, President & CEO of Jive Software, developer of social collaboration software and winner of the Oregon Entrepreneurs annual award in the Growth Company of the Year category.

March 20th
Ray Davis, CEO & President Umpqua Bank about service differentiation in financial services.

April 17th
Dan Eilers, Managing Director of Vanguard Ventures, which invests in software, hardware, storage, and other information technology companies. Eilers was founding managing partner of Apple Computer's venture capital fund and has been CEO of several other technology ventures.*

May 15th
Chris Van Dyke, President Nau, the transformational outdoor clothing company making waves both in the world of outdoor apparel and sustainability, which has attracted significant equity capital the past two years.

June 19th
Patrick Kruse, Ruff Wear, the company’s founder and acknowledged “leader of the pack” talks about efficiency and building a niche brand in the global outdoor industry.*

* Dan Eilers and Patrick Kruse may exchange PubTalk presentation dates.

Anonymous said...

MGIC, who 'black-listed' PDX last-week, is now in-solvent, Bend to be on list soon.

NO more PMI in Bend or PDX for any price, what does it mean for you?? 20% down MIN, game-over folks, no more sales to morons, now all STD's MUST be sold on private-contract.

***

MGIC Loses $1.47 Billion in Quarter, Seeking Capital (Update3)

By Josh P. Hamilton

Feb. 13 (Bloomberg) -- MGIC Investment Corp., the largest U.S. mortgage insurer, fell the most in a month after posting a record quarterly loss of $1.47 billion and said it hired an adviser to raise capital.

MGIC's fourth-quarter net loss was $18.17 a share, compared with a profit of $122 million, or $1.47, a year earlier, the Milwaukee-based company said in a statement today. Excluding investment losses, the insurer lost $18.09 a share, worse than the $8.13 average loss estimate of seven analysts compiled by Bloomberg.

Claims costs, including additions to reserves, surged sevenfold to $1.35 billion, compared with a Jan. 22 company forecast of as much as $1.3 billion. MGIC set aside money for losses on loans that served as collateral for Wall Street securitizations, whose performance ``deteriorated materially.''

``Higher loss severities and higher delinquencies had a material impact,'' Curt Culver, MGIC's chief executive officer, said in the statement. While the company expects to remain unprofitable this year, Culver said MGIC has adequate capital to meet its claim obligations.

MGIC fell $2.03, or 14 percent, to $12.15 at 10:10 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. Earlier in the session the company fell as much as 16 percent.

Foreclosure Rates

U.S. foreclosure rates have risen to their highest since at least World War II, and defaults on privately insured U.S. mortgages rose 37 percent in December from the same month a year earlier, according to the Mortgage Insurance Companies of America trade group. Foreclosure rates rose 75 percent in 2007, according to Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac Inc. Mortgage insurers reimburse lenders when borrowers don't repay their debts.

Borrowers who couldn't make higher monthly payments after introductory rates expired propelled a jump in third-quarter claims, leading MGIC and smaller rivals PMI Group Inc. and Radian Group Inc. to report their first money-losing quarters as publicly traded companies.

Payments on about $460 billion of adjustable-rate mortgages are scheduled to be repriced this year, with an additional $420 billion expected for 2011, according to New York-based analysts at Citigroup Inc.

Claims Forecast

The number of delinquent loans MGIC insures rose 18 percent during the final three months of 2007 to 107,120, the company said, confirming a Jan. 22 statement. MGIC at that time raised its forecast of what it expects to pay out in claims this year to $1.8 billion to $2 billion, from as much as $1.5 billion previously.

``We will be looking for color on the analyst call as to whether the company believes that'' the amount of claims paid will peak in 2008, said Seth Glasser, a credit analyst at Barclay's Capital Inc., in a note to clients yesterday. The company is scheduled to discuss the results on a conference call at 10 a.m. New York time.

Policy sales rose 25 percent to $380.5 million in the quarter as the company insured $24 billion of new mortgages, up from $15.5 billion a year earlier.

Anonymous said...

I've met the guy and he's not even close to smug or arrogant or a prick. He's from Scotland and sure enough Oregon wasn't much on his radar until he designed Bandon.

*

As far as a 'person' he's probably a great guy to have a beer with, but so what?

Bandon & Band are intertwined, both are ran by the same PR&MARKETING DVA[VCB].

Kidd is a pawn, he's on the ride, if these RE hustlers, want to throw him a bone, why shouldn't he be on the ride??

Sadly me thinks that he'll lose his ass on his $300k Tetherow 'investment' [ real cost BA DIAL ], that's probably why he's here, so that he can personally see the project completed and SOLD ASAP, and get the fuck out of here.

For now he's stuck & fucked, like so many in Bend,

He's got the name, if he builds a real nice home @tetherow, and can sell it with his name, and make a profit, my bet he's gone.

For now he's stuck.

Hell yes, he's a nice guy, I guess Quim doesn't like architects.

Hell Hitler was a nice guy, and so was Mussolini, and even DUMBYA a nice guy to snort a line of cocaine with, the road to hell is paved with nice guys.

Anonymous said...

Homer, Ignored the MGIC internal 'black-list' report from last week, note entire cali, they don't note below that PDX is on list, and soon Bend.

Virtually 88% of "BUYERS" have now been locked out. [ 88% was the 2005 # of people paying less than 20% down on average ]

***

Tuesday, February 13, 2008
PMI tightens underwriting guidelines

PMI Group Inc. will no longer insure mortgage loans with loan-to-value ratios above 97 percent and would no longer write coverage for certain types of risky loans in distressed markets, including 28 markets in California, or virtually the entire state, the company said.

The Walnut Creek mortgage insurer said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission it would implement that change and other revisions to its underwriting guidelines starting on March 1.

The latest changes follow earlier revisions PMI made in October to its underwriting guidelines that reduced the percentage of loans the company would insure at loan-to-value ratios of more than 97 percent, meaning that borrower had equity of 3 percent or less in the home. Even with that change, PMI still saw tremendous demand to insure loans of 100 percent loan-to-value, meaning a borrower was putting no money down. Twenty-one percent of PMI's new loans underwritten in the fourth quarter had loan-to-value ratios or more than 97 percent, said Beth Haiken, vice president of public relations at PMI.

"With home prices stagnant in many areas it doesn't make sense to insure 100 percent loan-to-value ratio loans," Haiken said. "That is not a good loan for this market -- it is unlikely to be successful."

Anonymous said...

I remember a year ago and talked about how only 20% down or more would buy a home, and how under 20% down, PMI would be un-affordable.

Costs now up 7-fold, PMI will be un-affordable, and those areas that people can get PMI will see double cost MTG's just for the right to BUY with less than 20% down, which means in a DOWN market that more will walk.

It's PINCH now, nobody has the down, but anybody that has less than 20% down that gets PMI will be fucked, and thus eventually BK, note also for those UNDER-WATER, they can call your loan under 80% LTV and demand PMI, and in some areas its NOW unavailable, so then they can call the entire loan.

It's going to get much WORSE.

Anonymous said...

Hey I've just about perfected a solar powered lawn mower/chipper-shredder/. Any good places in Bend to set up shop?

Anonymous said...

Hey I've just about perfected a solar powered lawn mower/chipper-shredder/. Any good places in Bend to set up shop?

*

Just call EDCO, they'll get you a free building/office, State money, ... anything you want.


Soon Bend will be the perpetual motion capital of the world.

Yesterday, "Send us your dead, to buy RE", We have STD's to sell.

Today, "Send us promises and dreams, we have money to burn".

There is NO doubt that the next BUBBLE will be alt-energy, and BEND as always will be ground-zero.

Anonymous said...

MT-B will be dead in a year, you can't sell the private land under-neath, and deny maintenance, and piss off your old time customers, and raise prices, and lengthen life-lines. MT-B is FUCKED it will be on Homers tomb-stone by end of year.

Hell Hitler was a nice guy, and so was Mussolini, and even DUMBYA a nice guy to snort a line of cocaine with, the road to hell is paved with nice guys.

*

That's a big negative on both of those buster. Bachelor ski area is public land and it's going to be around long after you're dead and gone. Hitler and Mussolini were nasty guys according to historians, but they haven't issued their verdict on W yet.

Anonymous said...

Bachelor ski area is public land and it's going to be around long after you're dead and gone.

* [ Yes, Bachelor BUTT will be around after I'm gone, Powdrz/MT-B will NOT ]

Your missing the point, obviously a newbie.

MT-B was bought for $25M only 4-5 years ago, they SOLD the land around the BUS depot in BEND, they have already gotten BACK 1/2 their original capital. There is other assets they're trying to liquidate. I agree they cannot SELL forest-service public land, and I never said they did sell it.

I guess this is generally the FUCKING point, MT-B isn't a PLACE, its a business OWNED by Powdrz, A real-estate resort company. They thought they were going to make a Billion on Condo's up at the MTN ( the place ), but now with BEND dead the investment is DEAD, like ALL else in Bend.


The plan (powdrz) is they get back their capital, and then DUMP the bitch.

This is why they're bleeding it to death.

WRT KIDD & HITLER, my point is every mother thinks her boy is/was a good boy. I was trying to defend Kidd from Quim, who suggested that he was not worthy of a beer.

Anonymous said...

Homer,

If Powdrz run's MT-B ( the biz ) into the ground, which is clear, then is it NOT worthy of being listed on the tombstone??

Like Tetherow, like Pape buying the INNof7thMTN biz, a LOT of rich people made real fucking BAD-TIMING investments in BEND, OR.

Which is why PAPE is fucking INNof7th CONDO owners, and why Powdrz is bleeding the MT-B op, and why Bauhofer brought KIDD to Bend, to sell desert swamp-lots, aka goof courses.

These are desperate times.

It's all about getting ALL your capital back ASAP, and getting the fuck out of Dodge.

Anonymous said...

Homer, your death list ain't NOTHING peruse the following, and this is just Jan08.

***

Movie Gallery closing another 400 stores
Charming Shoppes (CHRS) closing 150 stores and cutting expansion plans by 50%
Starbucks (SBUX) closing 100 stores and slowing expansion plans by 34%
Ann Taylor (ANN) shuttering 117 stores and slowing store growth
Boston Market evaluating its real estate opportunities
Buffet Holdings sorting out its underperformers
Sprint Nextel (S) closing 125 stores and 4,000 distribution points
Cost Plus World Market closing 18 stores
Liz Claiborne (LIZ) closing 54 Sigrid Olsen stores
New York & Company (NWY) axing the Jasmine Sola brand and its 32 stores
Ethan Allen (ETH) closing 12 stores
PacSun (PSUN) closing all of its 173 demo stores
Talbots (TLB) exiting its kids and men's lines through closure of 78 stores
Rite Aid (RAD) exiting Nevada by closing 28 stores
Macy's (M) closing nine stores
Krispy Kreme (KKD) expecting many franchisees to close stores
Kirkland's Home (KIRK) likely closing 130 stores
CompUSA's remaining 103 stores being disposed of
Rent-A-Center (RCII) closing 280 stores
Sofa Express closing 44 stores in bankruptcy
84 Lumber closing 12 stores
Home Depot (HD) closings some call centers
Levitz Furniture disposing of 76 stores in bankruptcy
Pep Boys (PBY) closing 31 stores
Lifetime Brands (LCUT) closing 30 stores
Big A Drugs liquidating its 21 stores Movie Gallery closing another 400 stores
Charming Shoppes (CHRS) closing 150 stores and cutting expansion plans by 50%
Starbucks (SBUX) closing 100 stores and slowing expansion plans by 34%
Ann Taylor (ANN) shuttering 117 stores and slowing store growth
Boston Market evaluating its real estate opportunities
Buffet Holdings sorting out its underperformers
Sprint Nextel (S) closing 125 stores and 4,000 distribution points
Cost Plus World Market closing 18 stores
Liz Claiborne (LIZ) closing 54 Sigrid Olsen stores
New York & Company (NWY) axing the Jasmine Sola brand and its 32 stores
Ethan Allen (ETH) closing 12 stores
PacSun (PSUN) closing all of its 173 demo stores
Talbots (TLB) exiting its kids and men's lines through closure of 78 stores
Rite Aid (RAD) exiting Nevada by closing 28 stores
Macy's (M) closing nine stores
Krispy Kreme (KKD) expecting many franchisees to close stores
Kirkland's Home (KIRK) likely closing 130 stores
CompUSA's remaining 103 stores being disposed of
Rent-A-Center (RCII) closing 280 stores
Sofa Express closing 44 stores in bankruptcy
84 Lumber closing 12 stores
Home Depot (HD) closings some call centers
Levitz Furniture disposing of 76 stores in bankruptcy
Pep Boys (PBY) closing 31 stores
Lifetime Brands (LCUT) closing 30 stores
Big A Drugs liquidating its 21 stores

Anonymous said...

I was think about 'Century Drive", the hwy of Loss.

Look at what's going on,...

MT-B Village, can't even sell condo's at an auction, ... nada Hollern's loss

Broken-Top Homer Williams make a mint ( as always ) sell's to Bauhofer, who sells to Brenneke, new money gets fucked.

INNof7thMTN PAPE buys at top of market, dumps a fortune into new bar,hotel,pool, then trys to recoup loss by passing the bill to condo-owners, big fuck for Pape.

World class resort Builder POWDRZ, buys MT-B for CHEAP, and plans to build a luxury resort at base of MT-B to rival Sunriver, result,..NADA big FUCK for Powdrz, now they're selling all salable assets, and running the biz to the ground. Makes you think they plan on selling at an auction or worse, They know they can't get top dollar, so get your money back, and what?? Walk away? Who is going to buy a broken down ski resort with a bad name?? The city of Bend?? Especially given that ALL assets not tied down were sold. Hey city of Bend, want to buy some nice buses?? MT-B buses, come with heaters.

Our beloved Century-Drive, probably what most of came to Bend for, just fucking beautiful, now a highway of loss leading to what?? You know that some crappy low-bidder from China is going to be getting all this shit for wholesale.

The future of Century Drive doesn't look good.

Oh, yea 'Tehtherow', boy talking about late, last time I looked Bauhofer and partners had borrow over $30M to what they have done to date, and they have sold a few lots, and maybe the club-house will be open this year, and maybe people will be paying to golf, but it ain't going to pay for itself.

Who made the most money?? Probably Homer Williams back in the 1990's.

Everyone since, doubled their bet, over, and over, and over.

Who will clean up the mess?

At least POWDRZ bought a company with real assets, I have NO DOUBT, that POWDRZ will get every dime invested back out, before they walk.

Anonymous said...

COSTAR is one of the #1 source of news in the country for commercial RE.

http://www.costar.com/News/Article.aspx?id=DAF9E98E8F8A2E0EFF898D104926AF29&ref=100

Retailers Taking Their Medicine and Turning Cautious Over Growth

Retail Industry Experts Say Closing Stores and Pulling Back is the Right Move in this Market
The past couple months in retail real estate have been laden with more store closing announcements and news of retailers slowing expansion plans than we've seen in a long time. However, two retail real estate strategy executives, a Wall Street retail analyst and a leading Texas retail real estate broker, confide that closing stores and turning cautious over expansion plans may be the best thing for retailers to be doing right now.

Announcements over the last couple months include Movie Gallery closing another 400 stores; Charming Shoppes closing 150 stores and cutting expansion plans by 50%; Starbucks closing 100 stores and slowing expansion plans by 34%; Ann Taylor shuttering 117 stores and slowing store growth; Boston Market evaluating its real estate opportunities; Buffet Holdings sorting out its underperformers; Sprint Nextel closing 125 stores and 4,000 distribution points; Cost Plus World Market closing 18 stores; Liz Claiborne closing 54 Sigrid Olsen stores; New York & Company axing the Jasmine Sola brand and its 32 stores; Ethan Allen closing 12 stores; PacSun closing all of its 173 demo stores; and Talbots exiting its kids and men's lines through closure of 78 stores.

Others include Rite Aid exiting Nevada by closing 28 stores; Macy's closing nine stores; Krispy Kreme expecting many franchisees to close stores; Kirkland's Home likely closing 130 stores; CompUSA's remaining 103 stores being disposed of; Rent-A-Center closing 280 stores; Sofa Express closing 44 stores in bankruptcy; 84 Lumber closing 12 stores; Home Depot closings some call centers; Levitz Furniture disposing of 76 stores in bankruptcy; Pep Boys closing 31 stores; Lifetime Brands closing 30 stores; Big A Drugs liquidating its 21 stores; and more.

Anonymous said...


Suicide rise linked to closure of rural pubs

I can recall pubs every night with the family in Ireland. Singing every night, always free food with the Guinness. Every night, that was living, now gone.

This hits home, because nowadays in Bend, the micro-brew pubs really don't like older people. The servers, and then Deschutes Gary Fish, trying to grow an empire, he'll be on Homer Death List, be he will.

**

14 February 2008

Suicide rise linked to closure of rural pubs

By Catherine Shanahan
SUICIDE in elderly people has been linked to the demise of rural pubs, according to several leading mental health and public health experts.


Adding his voice to growing suggestions that rising suicide rates are directly attributable to the closures, consultant psychiatrist Dr Mosajee Bhamjee said pubs, like churches, had been a focal point in rural communities, and their demise left many feeling increasingly isolated.

“I would say it is contributing to some extent to suicide among the elderly.




“For many older people, the pub was a social centre. It created a sense of social togetherness.

“That is all dying out now and people find themselves at home alone, in some cases drinking alone, which can lead to an even greater sense of loneliness and depression,” said Dr Bhamjee.

Dr Bhamjee was reacting to earlier comments made by Tom McGrath, secretary of Ennis Mental Health Association, who said pub closures were one of the biggest contributing factors to rural suicides.

Mental Health Ireland chief executive Brian Howard said older, single men were particularly vulnerable.

“Obviously by closing off that social outlet, it could give rise to pressures which affect people’s wellbeing in a negative way. This negativity could have an influence on suicidal behaviour,” said Mr Howard.

Public Health specialist Dr Paula Gilvarry said the demise of the rural pub was “one more element leading to a decrease in social involvement”.

“It’s not just the pub closures, it’s the overall lack of community support for people in rural communities. In the USA, in areas where people were actively involved in the community, a study found they had a greater life expectancy,” said Dr Gilvarry.

Dr Joe Barry, a senior lecturer in public health at Trinity College Dublin, and medical adviser to the National Drugs Strategy team, said he “wouldn’t dispute” the link between rural pub closures and higher levels of depression and suicide.

“It could happen, of course. It is not helped by the wider availability of cheap alcohol in our supermarkets and off-licences. People are buying more and drinking more and home consumption of alcohol has gone up,” said Dr Barry.

Figures from the Vintners Federation of Ireland show in 2003 there were 6,031 rural pubs around the country. This dropped to 5,434 in 2006. In 2006 alone, 437 pubs closed nationally.

Suicide rates in Ireland have risen from nine per 100,000 people in the five-year period 1980- 1984, to 15 per 100,000 in the five years 2000-2004. Suicide Prevention Helpline: 1800 742 745 Farm and Rural Stress Helpline: 1800 742 645 6pm-10pm daily.

Anonymous said...

World class resort Builder POWDRZ, buys MT-B for CHEAP, and plans to build a luxury resort at base of MT-B to rival Sunriver, result,..NADA big FUCK for Powdrz

*

Dude, whatcha smokin' tonight? There never was a plan to build a luxury resort at Bachelor, the forest service ain't down with that as anybody who knows anything can tell you. The Bachy resort is a figment of your fevered imagination.

Anonymous said...

Dude, whatcha smokin' tonight? There never was a plan to build a luxury resort at Bachelor, the forest service ain't down with that as anybody who knows anything can tell you.

*

In the day it was "Bachelor BUTT", just another BUTT in the area, then it became MT-B, like all of Bend's other "BRANDS".

Just google 'mt borealis' & powdrz for all the plans, actually it would have all happened had the BEND RE economy not collapsed for 20 years. Now, its going to take a generation or amnesia.

HELL NOBODY on the fucking earth would invest in CONDOS even near Bend, thus MT-BOREALIS is NOT only DEAD, but like the wiz-of-oz said, it is most surely dead.

Thus your right, there will now not be a sea of 'affordable time share condos' at MT-B, and that is why POWDRZ is is liquidating all assets ASAP and will be gone very,very soon.

Anonymous said...

a WSJ article from January about "rural gentrification."
***
Great article.

NE Oregon's just got to be next. Get to Baker before it's too late!

Anonymous said...

NE Oregon's just got to be next. Get to Baker before it's too late!

*

No, the Alvord Desert will be next, and the little town of Andrews will be the next Bend.

Even as we type Mike Hollern is laying plats out on the Alvord Desert Playa.

Anonymous said...

"Thus your right, there will now not be a sea of 'affordable time share condos' at MT-B, and that is why POWDRZ is is liquidating all assets ASAP and will be gone very,very soon."
-----------

Great spin job. Yeah, MB is not building out the condo-haven.

"NE Oregon's just got to be next. Get to Baker before it's too late!"
==========

So true. Baker City is the big metro. Sumpter is the suburbs. And Greenhorn is the just-right-size town.

Anonymous said...

Bend had better quit borrowing MUNI-DEBT to fund Knife-River ( Capell ).

The BOND MARKET for muni's has froze. Nobody is buying this debt at auction, and you know what that means??

It means that this trash must be priced for risk.

Bend DEBT?? How about 10% or maybe more.

The city MUST freeze spending and kill all non-essential ASAP.

No more CREDIT, you can write BONDS, but they can't sell them, the auction market isn't working, nobody is buying bonds.

Why should they??

I said a long time ago, that once investors got their quarterly s and realized the loss, they would NOT go back. Average loss right now is 25% of capital, this was supposed to be for AAA, low-risk investing.

Some people have lost 80%, some 10%, but the average 25%.

Nobody wants anything now except T-Bills & T-Bonds.

No more borrowing for Bend, that little bit you get from the taxpayer is it.

Garzini say's "RUN YOUR CITY LIKE A BUSINESS", which means run your city on DEBT. Now the money is no longer available, now what do you do??

All 'auction rate' bonds are on hold, and all Bonds are sold these days at auction, and nobody is buying. So when Bend goes borrow money, soon nobody will be answering the phone. When does this city learn to only learn to live on the blood it can suck off its citizens?? You can no longer suck blood off Wall-Street, because Main-Street will no longer loan good money to Wall-Street.

Anonymous said...

OH Shit, now we need a site called 'angrybendbuilder.com'. The builders in Bend are NOW ANGRY, go figure??

Behind the best time to BUY BEND RE in 20 years is ANGER!

Behind Cheery Facade Home Builders Angry, Depressed


IBSA cheery gaggle of singers and dancers are set to open the International Builders Show here in Orlando this morning. But behind the scenes at the convention, many builders are angry and downright depressed by the state of the housing market. The target of their angst: politicians in Washington, D.C.

“Our industry is struggling in a big way,’’ said Charles Kasko, an at-large trustee of the political action committee of the National Association of Home Builders. “It’s important that they stop bickering in Washington and get the job done.” The home builder’s PAC said late yesterday that it was withholding all of its campaign contributions to congressional candidates, “until further notice.”

The builders are clamoring for Congress to pass proposals, which would make mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration available to more home buyers and raise the loan limits on mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Both measures are expected to boost home sales during one of the worst housing markets in recent memory.

Home builders, who reaped massive profits during the housing boom, have been criticized for fueling a speculative run-up in house prices and overbuilding in many markets, which contributed to the current housing crash.

“Did we have a lot of speculators in the market? Yes we did,’’ said Mr. Kasko. “But the pendulum has swung so far the other way. Many builders in America are small family businesses and this is dragging them down.’’ –Michael Corkery
Permalink

Anonymous said...

http://www.salon.com/mwt/col/tenn/2008/02/14/suburban_house/

So a mcmansion on .1 acre isn't the paradise lost people thought it would be -- can you feel their pain?

Anonymous said...

So a mcmansion on .1 acre isn't the paradise lost people thought it would be -- can you feel their pain?

*

This is WHY the #1 use of un-wanted STD's all over USA, is to demolish them NOW, and sell the lots to a neighbor, and once again, you can have .25 acre lots!

Think this isn't coming to Bend?

What do they do with a meth-house? Tear it to the ground, and the lot sits. In time most of Bends STD's will go this way.

Anonymous said...

The Other Shoe Has Dropped!

No shit! I relocated out of state too late and dropped the price of my house too little. Gee, I wonder why it won't sell with a foreclosure next door and Adairs being dumped like there is no tomorrow.

Is there a tomorrow?

So, here I sit, with a bunch of money tied up in my stupid little piece of Bend real estate that I can't dump, looking at moving BACK to this marketing hell hole of a town.

It was a great town in the 80's. What happened to it???

Moving back is a last resort for me, it took me 12 years to get to a place I really love, but I was too late in getting here, and now I gotta come back???

Since I am out of state, I can't really see what's going on, except for the constant online data I sift through every day. Good thing I am not a paying subscriber to the Bend Bulletin - at least I don't have to read their shit.

Can someone tell me what the rental market is doing in Bend. My guess is that there is a bunch of rentals on the market and prices are dropping there too. Other than coming back to Bend (gag!) renting my home seems to be my only option.

Can someone comment on the rental scene in Bend for a home owner like me and what YOU might do in my place?

(Gawd, why did I BUY a home in Bend?)

Many thanks!

timothy said...

Adairs next door. I think I know your house and the ones next door. A house in that neighborhood was flooded and foreclosed and needs to come down 100k. Your house and the others need to come down 50k.

You could probably rent out, but there are a lot of rentals on the market (houses--cheap apartments are scarce).

My advice as a renter... If I were you, I'd wait until May. Rentals will be hard to find because owners will be trying to sell, and having an empty property is necessary when you're competing against so many other sellers.

This happens every year. In early summer a rental house cannot be found. Once school starts there are zillions of rentals from the sellers who have given up.

Anonymous said...

At least my house wasn't flood damaged!

Looks like I'm coming back to the hell hole that is Bend.

Watch out, I am in full on mountain mode now and I drive a big black truck.

No cell phone, no Volvo, no fake tits, no rich husband.

And this time around, I could give a rats ass what any of those PTA moms think of me!

timothy said...

Great WSJ front page story on two brothers who sold their 50 year old shipping business for over a billion last year. Turned some of the money over to Lehman with "capital preservation" as their #1 goal. Lehman promptly dumped 2/3 of their money into auction bonds and almost immediately lost over $250 million.

Naturally there are lawsuits.

How much you bet Lehman had been looking around for a sucker to take this bad paper off their own books?

Lehman says, "how can we know what'll happen in the markets?"

Yeah, right. Then how come the other two investment banks that got the money from these guys put them into treasuries?

This crap will take years to play out. The investment banks are playing "hot potato" and "smell my finger."

Anonymous said...

FYI
Fed Chairman: Less Available Credit to Continue
http://creditcollectionsworld.com/article.html?id=20080214JGB4N33I&from=creditandcollectionnews
„More expensive and less available credit seems likely to continue to be a source of restraint on economic growth,‰ Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke testified Thursday before the U.S. Senate‚s Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs.

bruce said...

Re: Great WSJ front page story on two brothers who sold their 50 year old shipping business for over a billion last year.

This type of thing happened to a friend of mine. He took over a mine and refurbished a bunch of stuff, dealt with permitting, and made it profitable again. It mined stuff (gypsum, I believe) that is used to scrub coal-power smokestacks.

He sold it, netted $20 million, handed it over to one of the big Wall Street banks, whom promptly lost well over half if it during the dot-com meltdown. Not a happy camper...

Anonymous said...

Bachelor needs to be rebuilt from the ground up with major capital expenditures to bring it into the 21st century. Who ever came up with the plan to sell that white elephant as the next Vail/Aspen/Sun Valley should be taken out and put out of his/her misery. It's suffering from an identiy crisis in bad need of a plastic surgon. It should be the best f$#%$%^ "local" mountain that the locals want to keep secret and the out-of-townies are clamoring to get to. Good lord, what do they expect when the kegs malfunctions on a holiday weekend. The beer should always flow from the kegs on a holiday weekend. Strike that...It should always flow no matter what.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Anyone notice this....?

The Plaza was relisted yesterday...

2008-02-13 2801223 Bend Upper Terrace 449900 275 0
2008-02-13 2801225 Bend Upper Terrace 524900 293 0
2008-02-13 2801228 Bend Upper Terrace 549900 336 0
2008-02-13 2801227 Bend Upper Terrace 599900 368 0
2008-02-13 2801229 Bend Upper Terrace 599900 336 0
2008-02-13 2801250 Bend Upper Terrace 615900 385 0
2008-02-13 2801247 Bend Upper Terrace 639900 342 0
2008-02-13 2801242 Bend Upper Terrace 659900 335 0
2008-02-13 2801231 Bend Upper Terrace 679900 417 0
2008-02-13 2801244 Bend Upper Terrace 699900 361 0
2008-02-13 2801245 Bend Upper Terrace 729900 437 0
2008-02-13 2801248 Bend Upper Terrace 749900 426 0
2008-02-13 2801246 Bend Upper Terrace 779900 467 0
2008-02-13 2801249 Bend Upper Terrace 799900 501 0

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Seems the new owner is still hell-bent on making a pile on this mound of shit.

Dream on, dumbfuck. We didn't buy it from a local... you think we'll buy them at essentially the same price from you?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Good lord, what do they expect when the kegs malfunctions on a holiday weekend.

What the fuck is a "keg malfunction"? Kegs don't malfunction! If your keg malfunctions, you got no fuckin business suspending human beings 100ft above the ground from badly worn cables....

Anonymous said...

Excerpt from http://www.ktvz.com/global/story.asp?s=7871823

"We'd love it if we could build Rome in a day," said resort Marketing Director Carly Carmichael. "But some things do take longer, and we're super-committed."

Carmichael told me about a few things they are working on in the meantime.

"We are in the middle of, I think, a ton of changes," she said. "And some of them can't happen overnight, some of them can."

"We're adding new grooming signs at the bottom of all lifts. Right now, there's only one at the bottom of Pine Marten. So by this weekend, there should be signs at the bottom of the core lifts, so you can see right then what's groomed off of those areas."

"We've got lift closure signs, so when Outback or Northwest open, we can flip a sign and say 'open,' Carmiachael said. "We're looking on internal communication to make sure that's done more on time and right when the lifts are open."

"So we're in the process of analyzing all those things to try to make it better and communicate better with our guests."



Wow...way to spend the capital expenditures. What...cost a couple grand? I can see they are so excited about their plans that instead of yelling them from the rooftops, they are veiled in secrecy.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

"We are in the middle of, I think, a ton of changes," she said. "And some of them can't happen overnight, some of them can."

"We're adding new grooming signs at the bottom of all lifts. Right now, there's only one at the bottom of Pine Marten. So by this weekend, there should be signs at the bottom of the core lifts, so you can see right then what's groomed off of those areas."

"We've got lift closure signs, so when Outback or Northwest open, we can flip a sign and say 'open,' Carmiachael said. "We're looking on internal communication to make sure that's done more on time and right when the lifts are open."

"So we're in the process of analyzing all those things to try to make it better and communicate better with our guests."


Are these idiots fuckin retarded?

"Putting up signs" is their idea of "Customer Service"?

Wow... they are in deep shit.

bruce said...

Re: What the fuck is a "keg malfunction"? Kegs don't malfunction! If your keg malfunctions, you got no fuckin business suspending human beings 100ft above the ground from badly worn cables..

From today's BULL: Girl falls from lift; officials examine Bachelor

7-year old snowboarder, didn't get all the way on, hung by her arms as clueless lifty tried to stop Sunrise, fell twelve feet.

Best part--she was in a ski school class at the time :)

bruce said...

Muni Regulators Seek Disclosure on Auction-Rate Bonds (Update2)

By Michael Quint

Feb. 15 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. banks and securities firms may be forced to disclose more information on bidding for auction- rate bonds after dealers stopped buying the securities, triggering more than $20 billion of failures this week that squeezed local governments nationwide.

The U.S. municipal bond market's main regulator, the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board, plans to seek comment on whether dealers should reveal the number of bidders and disclose how often auctions fail in the $330 billion market for the securities, whose rates are set periodically at auctions, said Executive Director Lynnette Hotchkiss.

Banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. allowed more than 100 auctions to fail this week after they were unable to attract bidders and decided not to buy unwanted securities. The failure nearly doubled borrowing costs on $15 million of bonds sold by Harrisburg International Airport in Pennsylvania to 14 percent, said executive director Tim Edwards. The Port Authority of New York & New Jersey's rate reset at 20 percent on $100 million of debt, up from 4.3 percent a week ago.

``Obviously, auction-rate trading is a big issue right now,'' Hotchkiss said in an interview late yesterday.

Auction-rate bonds are long-term debt with interest rates reset according to bids submitted to banks and securities firms every seven, 28 or 35 days. Banks stopped their typical practice of buying the securities for their own accounts to prevent failures after losses on debt linked to subprime mortgages led to downgrades of some of the bond insurers that back most auction notes.

Insurer Downgrades

As banks backed away from the market under the pressure of $146 billion in credit losses and writedowns, at least 129 auctions failed on Feb. 13. That's left investors who wanted to sell the debt unable to unload the securities and boosted interest costs for cities, hospitals and universities.

Zurich-based UBS AG will no longer buy auction-rate securities that fail to attract enough bidders, and Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York is reducing purchases, people with direct knowledge of the matter said this week.

Hotchkiss declined to detail disclosures that will be included in the notice because it hasn't been approved by the Alexandria, Virginia-based board. She said the notice for comment may be issued within two or three weeks.

Buyers including corporate treasurers held auction-rate securities as a higher-yielding alternative to cash equivalents such as certificates of deposits and savings accounts. New York City owes about $3.5 billion on auction bonds, or 5 percent of the city's total indebtedness.

SEC Discussion

Providing more information on auctions, such as the amount of bids and sale orders, might help the market because it ``could allay some investor concerns about getting stuck holding a security,'' said Joseph Fichera, chief executive officer of Saber Partners, a New York-based adviser to local governments.

The staff at the Securities and Exchange Commission has talked with the board about enhanced disclosure of the auction process, Hotchkiss said.

The board began work in October on changing its trade reporting system to include the interest rate on auction bonds, not just the price. At that time, Frank Chin, chairman and head of the public finance group at New York-based Citigroup, the biggest underwriter of auction-rate debt, said disclosures on details of auctions beyond the rate would be the ``subject of additional dialogue with the SEC.''

The SEC enforces regulations of the municipal board. The commission's approval is required for any new rules.

Scant Information

The board began looking at ways to increase auction-rate disclosure at the request of the SEC, which in 2006 fined 15 banks a total of $13 million for using inside information to submit bids on auction-rate securities. Banks are allowed to continue the practice so long as they disclose to investors that they might bid, though they haven't been required to reveal if, or how much they paid at auctions or what the range of offers was.

Revealing the interest rate would help investors and issuers, Martha Haines, head of the SEC's Office of Municipal Securities, has said.

Investors have few publicly available sources of information on yields of auction-rate securities, beyond indexes published on the Web site of the Securities Industry Financial Markets Association, the bond market's trade group. The indexes are based on securities whose rates reset on Tuesday or Wednesday, and are published with a lag. The most recent indexes are for Feb. 6.

###

Interesting, considering our own city is planning on a debt auction in the very near future, or maybe was one of the failed one's...

mtnbikegirl said...

Re: From today's BULL: Girl falls from lift; officials examine Bachelor

7-year old snowboarder, didn't get all the way on, hung by her arms as clueless lifty tried to stop Sunrise, fell twelve feet.

Best part--she was in a ski school class at the time :)

I was up there yesterday and rode the Sunrise lift. As someone who is somewhat vertically challenged (I'm 5'2), I thought that the loading height of the chairs to be kind of high and had to adjust to kind of hop on to properly get on the chair. As a lift that services a lot of kids, the loading height of the chair should perhaps be adjusted a little.

bruce said...

"There will be no Executive Session"

From the just posted Feb. 20 agenda. Perhaps my efforts are having some effect.

I'll have to go, as there are JR related updates in both the work session and regular session.

Now for a little budget analysis--at first blush, January overal revenue was only down $1.9M from budget projections, far less than Decembers $3.5M. More to come...

Anonymous said...

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‘AFFLUENZA’
By Alandra Johnson / The Bulletin
Published: February 15. 2008 4:00AM PST

Coming from an affluent family isn’t a guarantee that a kid will thrive. In fact, some researchers believe that wealth is tied to a unique set of problems for students, an epidemic sometimes called ... ‘AFFLUENZA’

For years, most researchers dedicated to analyzing the problems of youth focused on inner-city kids or those growing up in poverty. But within the last decade, the focus has expanded as researchers began to notice problems plaguing teenagers from middle- and upper-class families.

While having money certainly doesn’t bring about problems, affluence doesn’t guarantee a free pass from trouble, either. In fact, some researchers believe that teenagers raised in financially comfortable circumstances are more likely to adopt certain negative traits including a sense of entitlement, a lack of motivation, stress, anxiety disorders, psychosomatic behaviors, substance-abuse issues, low self-esteem, a self-image tied to material things and more.

This array of issues is sometimes referred to as “affluenza.”

Kimberly Williams, a pediatric neuropscyhologist with the NYU Child Study Center, believes that the problem has become an “epidemic.” These problems, she says, stem from children getting their “identities from their place in the world.”

Pressure and anxiety

About eight years ago, child and adolescent psychologist Madeline Levine noticed a shift in the teenagers coming into her office. In the past, certain clues would point educators and therapists to children who needed help, such as failing grades, poor hygiene or low-income backgrounds. Then that all began to change, according to Levine.

The students coming into Levine’s office had the “appearance of having it all under control.” Yet they were clearly depressed and stressed. One patient in particular inspired Levine to look into this matter. The girl, who came from an affluent family, had carved the word “empty” onto her forearm.

Levine said she realized that “nobody has a clue these kids are really unhappy.”

She went on to write the best-seller “The Price of Privilege,” which examines many of the issues affecting youngsters from upper-middle-class families.

The problems, Levine says, are real. She says upper-middle-class teenagers have the highest rate of depression, anxiety, substance abuse and psychosomatic disorders of any socio-economic group. Levine believes it “meets the criteria for epidemic.”

While these problems spring up among the upper-middle class, Levine doesn’t think income level is the real key.

“I don’t believe this is actually about money,” said Levine. Instead, she says it is about a culture “where stuff matters more than people.”

She says kids get a message that they need to achieve or accumulate things in order to be valued.

“It’s driving kids to think they have to get everything right,” said Levine.

This, in turn, leads kids to not want to fail, which means they are less likely to try new things and therefore don’t develop resiliency, she said.

Summit High School counselor Debbie McKeown sees some of the issues tied to affluenza play out in her counseling office, particularly those connected to anxiety and stress. Many students, she says, arrive at school at 6:30 a.m. to take early-bird classes and then don’t leave until after 6 p.m. She sometimes wonders, “When is the quality time with parents?”

McKeown knows that affluence enables many families to offer their children wonderful opportunities, including spots on traveling sports teams, summer study programs and more. But these opportunities also mean kids are busy. Many kids, she says, “see teachers and coaches more than parents.”

She sees kids who “break down and start crying” because they are so tired and have so much going on. They get “overcommitted,” which can lead to depression and anxiety.

McKeown works with students, who might be getting their first B or C grade, trying to help them and their parents to accept that letter grade. Sometimes, she says, they are “looking for that letter grade rather than substance.”

Williams sees many children in her New York office who struggle with perfectionism. She says those who stress out can “self-medicate” with alcohol and drug use.

“They start to rely on their accomplishments for their sense of worth,” said Williams.

Sometimes McKeown helps students and families “refocus goals” for a particular teenager. One of her recent students, for instance, planned to go into medicine, but he started feeling burned out. He never considered pursing his longtime passion for creative writing. McKeown talked to the student and his parents about aligning his “aptitude more with his passion” and altering his career path.

Material goods

McKeown thinks fashion and material goods play a role in some students’ lives at Summit High School.

“There’s so much of it here; it’s just a way of life. Kids don’t think it’s odd to pay $100 for jeans,” said McKeown.

She remembers pulling into the parking lot on her first day at Summit and wondering at all of the nice cars.

McKeown recalls thinking, “I wonder who all these parents are?”

Then, she realized the nice vehicles weren’t from moms and dads, they were students’ cars.

Her concern is that some students tie their self-image to these material things. And now that the economy is slumping, she worries about how they will react if they can’t keep up.

McKeown says teenagers worry they are “not going to be popular or not going to fit in” if they can’t purchase certain things.

She says this will be a struggle for some families.

“How do you shift back to those old-fashioned values?” said McKeown. “We’re still fine, we’re still a family.”

McKeown says that while many students at Summit come from affluent families, a quarter of the student population is receiving free or reduced lunch, an indicator that they come from low-income families.

Students can feel pressure not just to be the best students, according to NYU’s Williams, but to also be the best looking.

She said affluenza affects middle-class families as well as the affluent. Some families, she says, spend their money on cars, video games, manicures and “might spend their last dime on a pair of sneakers.”

Families can be living “paycheck to paycheck and still be taken in by materialism,” said Williams.

Psychologist Levine points to shows such as MTV’s “My Super Sweet 16” as encouraging the notion that bigger is better. Sometimes, she says, parents also promote this attachment to material goods. One mother she worked with mentioned the need to do some “retail therapy.” Levine thinks it’s dangerous to promote “the notion that material goods somehow have magical and curative powers.”

Bend mom Sandy Hill thinks materialism does play a part in kids’ lives, and she thinks parents are a big factor.

“I’ll be the first to admit I should say no sometimes and I don’t,” said Hill. She has a 19-year-old son in college and a 17-year-old daughter at Bend High School.

Hill can’t compare her own experience with her kids’ because she grew up very poor, where saying yes “wasn’t an option.”

Hill says she and her husband do try to teach their children the down side of instant gratification and the benefits of saving. For instance, their son Spencer pays for his own books and living expenses in college, even though Hill says those are costs they could afford.

But still, Hill knows they both agree to buy things for their children “a lot more than we should.”

Sometimes, she says her daughter will tell her, “You really should get me this because everybody else has it,” said Hill. But for the most part, she says, her daughter and her friends find ways to save money by exchanging clothing or making things on their own.

Entitlement and motivation

Some students who come from affluence can develop a sense of entitlement, according to Williams. This can come in part from parents who over indulge their children.

“Children haven’t learned how to acquire things for themselves,” said Williams.

Many parents come to Williams because they worry their children are not motivated. In some ways, this may seem the opposite as being overachieving, but Williams says they are just different ways in which children react to the same issues.

Kids can lack motivation, she says, because they are anxious about what to do or how to proceed.

Williams says lack of motivation is usually a sign of something else. Kids may feel like failures, be in the wrong type of school, feel anxious or may be using drugs. Lack of motivation, she says, is a secondary issue.

Sometimes, too, Williams says, parents have trained their children to work only for rewards. They make the honor roll, they get a new Xbox. When the rewards are removed, some kids lose their motivation.

It’s hard to say whether these issues are a problem in Central Oregon.

Levine says most of the research on affluent youth has focused on those living in suburban settings. That means that the experience of Central Oregon teens may not necessarily match up.

Counselor Gary Whitley says Bend High School is more of a “blue collar, middle class kind of place” and doesn’t see too many issues from students involving material goods. That said, Whitley believes teenagers today face a lot of difficulties.

“I think there’s more pressure on kids today in some respects,” said Whitley. “A wide range of issues create stressors for kids and can be present regardless of the socio-economic piece.”

Michael McDonald, assistant principal at Summit, thinks it’s hard to pigeonhole students.

“Kids from all backgrounds are capable of flying high or of running into problems,” said McDonald.

He believes Summit has just as many issues as other schools he has worked at when it comes to substance abuse.

“There are definitely kids out there that feel entitled. There are definitely kids out there that don’t,” said McDonald. “The job of the school is to not let that be the focus.”

Bend mom Hill believes, for the most part, Bend students aren’t too entitled.

“I think for the most part, they’re pretty good here,” said Hill. “It’s not like it would be in a big city.”

Hill believes, as long as they say please and thank you, it’s OK for her children to ask for things. It’s the parents’ job, she thinks, to say no.

What parents can do

“Parents obviously love their kids a whole bunch,” said Summit counselor McKeown. “Parents really, really do want to do the best for their kids.”

That love can help parents recognize when their children are facing issues.

McKeown says sometimes parents hear about a problem affecting youth and don’t think it applies to their students.

As a parent herself, McKeown understands this impulse. “The first thing I want to say is, ‘Oh, not my child,’” said McKeown.

They “hear information a little disturbing and maybe not totally believe it,” said McKeown. Instead, she suggests parents take a moment and really listen and “be open to checking it out.”

The basic warning sign for depression, anxiety or substance abuse issues is any major change in a teenager’s behavior. This can include a drop in grades, change in sleeping patterns, change in friends, change in activities, etc.

Parents should watch for students who isolate themselves, who hide information or who have become overly sensitive.

Williams suggests parents ask themselves: Does my child seem happy? Does my child seem awake?

If parents suspect their students is having problems, Williams suggests they talk to the family pediatrician with the hope of a referral to a therapist. Parents can also approach teachers or school administrators to try to identify the problem, Williams says.

Sometimes parents jump to find a quick fix, according to Williams.

“They are a problem solver at work so they want to be a problem solver at home,” said Williams. That approach can lead to unnecessary prescription drugs and other more quick-fix options.

Real solutions take longer.

Sitting down to dinner together, for instance, is one activity that Williams recommends. She also suggests parents “be open to talk and be available to talk.”

Levine is a big proponent of downtime for kids. She also believes that children need to get enough sleep. For teenagers, that’s more than nine hours a night.

Bend Economy Man said...

while many students at Summit come from affluent families, a quarter of the student population is receiving free or reduced lunch, an indicator that they come from low-income families.

So 25% of the kids at Summit, our town's "rich snob" high school, are on government assistance. That is pathetic.

This is NOT a rich town, everybody!!

Why's The Bulletin doing 1500-word features on "Affluenza" and the pressures of material wealth when it should have, hey, a whole "Living Poor" section with tips on food stamps, lice combs and how to have fun family vacations in the woods rather than Hawaii.

Anonymous said...

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Gilchrist on the verge of becoming a ghost town

14yroldfbigirl said...

"There will be no Executive Session"

From the just posted Feb. 20 agenda. Perhaps my efforts are having some effect.

-->

Does this mean what I think it does?

Does this mean that Goldschimidt will not be cumming at the party?

for your edification said...

tates Try to Manage Foreclosure Rules

Legislators have introduced bills to protect homeowners from foreclosure in Georgia and Oregon, while the Maryland Court of Appeals has ruled it is not unconstitutional to start foreclosure if the homeowner has not received notification.

A Georgia bill introduced by Democratic Senator Emanuel Jones would extend the period between foreclosure and sale of a property from 37 to 90 days.

The proposal aims to curb the number of foreclosures in metro Atlanta, which hit a record high of 58,076 in 2007, according to a study by Atlanta-based real estate data firm Equity Depot.

The Oregon House unanimously passed a bill Thursday that would prevent lenders from taking advantage of homeowners facing foreclosure.

Under the bill, homeowners would have at least 24 hours to go over contracts. Lenders would be required to spell out contract terms in plain language and include information on how homeowners can cancel their contracts.

The bill also addresses foreclosure notice requirements. The notice would have to contain information on how much the homeowner owes and how much he or she must pay to get out of foreclosure

“Not only does this help families facing this devastating loss of home, it will also help protect Oregon’s economy from the severe economic downturn our country is facing,” said Democratic Representative Suzanne Bonamici, vice chair of the House Consumer Protection Committee, in a statement.

Meanwhile, the Maryland Court of Appeals did not side with a woman who claimed her constitutional rights were violated because foreclosure proceeded on her home, even though she never received notices.

The mortgage issuer sent notice to Joyce Griffin via two certified letters and two regular mail letters, none of which were received. She found out her home was sold in a foreclosure auction only after the new owner posted a notice on her door.

Although the court noted banks should be required to have proof that homeowners received foreclosure notices, the opinion determined Griffin’s case should be taken up by the legislature.