Monday, February 4, 2008

Bend Overwhelmed By STD Epidemic

Mstucker Ain't A Dude

I guess I should have known that a nickname like "EM-stucker", should have been "Ms Tucker" or some such, but Paul-doh's mind ain't been the same since being washed over by the ecstasy of Deschutes' Abyss beer. My Lord, I don't really drink beer EVER, but that Abyss is stuff alcoholism is made of. Has anyone partaken of that glorious elixir? I'm considering getting a divorce so that I can marry a vat of that stuff. Take crack, cable TV, porno, and a Wii, and make it into beer, and that's Abyss. My God, it's unbelievable.

Anyway, what was I talking about?

Right, Ms Tucker. Seems Ms Tucker is a Realtor that:

1) Is a chick
2) Can withstand a Buster Onslaught
3) Is actually not all that sanguine on the prospects for Bend RE
4) Is pretty good about posting timely Bend RE stats
5) Is refreshingly innocent ("What is a MILF?" God, I love that!)

I might have to reconsider my New Years request that all "Fake Tittied Realtors Kill Themselves, And You're ALL Fake Tittied Realtors".

mstucker
is all right! So let's post some mstucker nugg's (well, at least we think it's her):

mstucker:
1.) Please quit using abbreviations, so people know what your talking about.
2.) Please tell your story from the start that would be a good start.
3.) The reason we need you to start your own blog, because we need to have a womens blog here for real-estate women to come clean.

4.)
We need a place where women can comment there experiences and not have 50 year old guys going on 12 talk about pussy and their anus.
5.) Please tell your story from the beginning, and assume nothing. Start from the beginning, and tell us about how you saw the Bend real estate business change especially from 2000 to 2006, but also from the time you arrived.


Ummmm. Don't hold your breath on #4 going away. "50 year old guys going on 12" describes ALL 50 year old men. And all 40 year olds. And 60 year olds. Well, it describes every guy between 12 and 99, and most beyond that.

mstucker: Answer to IHTBYB. I tell my buyers and sellers the truth. Don't buy now. And sell as fast as you can at the lowest price you can or stay forever. I know of many brokers looking or working part time at other jobs.

They never heeded the good advice about keeping 6 to 12 months money in the bank.
I will retire this fall. Have no debt, no mortgage and will stay in Bend.

I blurted out that this is going bad until 2012 and was shussed by RE office owners. As if not saying it will somehow keep it from happening. But most of them don't read Mish or Clusterfucknation or HP or HD or BB2 or ML implode. I want all the best info so I can plan for the future.


That nugg about "Sell however you can, come hell or high water or plan on staying forever" is Dead Right. There really ARE people around here who have fairly stable & safe incomes, who have plenty of resources tucked away, who live in a nice but severely depreciated house, who could go into financial hibernation For Years if the need arose. There just aren't that many.

There are also Deep Equity types who have stuck around through the entire previous 1,000% runup, who could take a major beating (Buster?), and still have equity clear down to the Sleeping Point. Maybe this describes mstucker herself, she seems perfectly fine with Getting Real About The Bend RE Debacle.

mstucker: Yes i like Bend enough to stay. I don't like most of the changes that have happened in the past 15 years, but I have 30 years worth of good friends here.

Hallelujah! I think this describes most Old Timers. Now this is partly explained by the tendency of Old Bastards (sorry mstucker) to get crotchety and bitch about gas not being 12 cents, and those "Awful Baggy Pants" and shit. But Bend has been on a rather long-term trajectory of change that DID seem tolerable until about 6-7 years ago, when Our Founding Fathers began marketing Bend to Any Skank-Ass Californicated Bastard Who Had $1,000 they would part with in our wonderous downtown.

I'm FINE with change. DAMMIT. What is almost intolerable beyond belief, is that this town has mortgaged EVERYTHING to get unneeded & unwanted homes to litter every square inch within this towns UGB. As Buster has said repeatedly, our ridiculously LOW SDC CHARGES have spawned an Epidemic Of Siberian Tract Developments (STD's).

Even having a severe case of STD's is FINE with me. But ours came at the cost of SACRIFICING ALL MEASURE OF PUBLIC SERVICES.

$13.5MM Bend Pine Park complete with 4 baseball fields? Nope, now it's a $2MM parking lot with ~40ac of grass, and illegal-alien-meth-dealer friendly gazebo's.

It's even starting to impinge on EDUCATION. Anyone notice that the horizontal-snow Arctic gale on Tuesday did NOT result in school closure, BUT the Thursday Woosie Snow DID? Right, that's cuz we ran out of plowing money WEDNESDAY. We made the Big Shit, on Forbes.com:

Associated Press
Ore.: Heavy Snowfalls Stretch Budget

It's worse in Bend, where the city set aside $280,000 to remove snow on residential streets. But recent budget cuts due to fee permit declines from the housing slump dropped that to $152,000.

Parts of the city got more than 20 inches of snow in January and Bend may be at least $100,000 over budget, said Hardy Hanson, manager of the city streets division.

Bend still plans to call its contract snow removal companies when at least half a foot of snow falls at a time, possibly requiring a dip into the contingency fund.

"We will continue to operate at our standard level even though we may or may not get that money," Hanson said.

THIS is the cost of our short-sighted mania for unhindered, slap-dash, all engines FULL ON growth. SDC's that should have been $50-60K, were instead $12K and drew hyiena's from every quarter to evicerate the Bend carcass, while developers cashed in on the difference on the backs of those of us who will remain.

Of course The City of Bend Will Go Bankrupt. Randy Sebastian, Hollern, Pollock and other hyiena's, having gorged themselves to the bursting point, will simply leave. We who remain Will Pay. Unplowed streets, meth-den parks, closed schools, tens of busted industries (including all RE), Grand Canyon-esque potholes, No Cops, Teachers quitting, rampant homelessness, double-digit monster unemployment, and to boot, the lamest Christmas lights of any town West of Detroit. We haven't even begun to see the backlash of this horrendous shortsightedness. THIS will be what vacates the "It's Different In Bend" PR/Marketing standby (yeah, it's different all right... It Sucks!) we have expended MILLIONS on to Bring In Noob's (DOUBLE DOWN ON RED). Underpricing SDC charges is much like underpricing insurance, the aftereffects (LOSSES) can be delayed quite far into the future, and "today's" revenue gains can be quite dramatic, IF you're willing to completely Fuck Yourself "tomorrow". Well, "tomorrow" is now.

Here's Warren's philosophy (sorry Buster) about underpricing insurance with respect to an acquisition he made decades ago, NICO:

When we purchased the company NICO - a specialist in commercial auto and general liability insurance - it did not appear to have any attributes that would overcome the industry's chronic troubles. It was not well-known, had no informational advantage (the company has never had an actuary), was not a low-cost operator, and sold through general agents, a method many people thought outdated.

Nevertheless, for almost all of the past 38 years, NICO has been a star performer. Indeed, had we not made this acquisition, Berkshire would be lucky to be worth half of what it is today.

What we've had going for us is a managerial mindset that most insurers find impossible to replicate.

Can you imagine any public company embracing a business model that would lead to the decline in revenue that we experienced from 1986 through 1999? That colossal slide, it should be emphasized, did not occur because business was unobtainable. Many billions of premium dollars were readily available to NICO had we only been willing to cut prices. But we instead consistently priced to make a profit, not to match our most optimistic competitor. We never left customers - but they left us.

Most American businesses harbor an "institutional imperative" that rejects extended decreases in volume. What CEO wants to report to his shareholders that not only did business contract last year but that it will continue to drop? In insurance, the urge to keep writing business is also intensified because the consequences of foolishly-priced policies may not become apparent for some time. If an insurer is optimistic in its reserving, reported earnings will be overstated, and years may pass before true loss costs are revealed (a form of self-deception that nearly destroyed GEICO in the early 1970s).

THAT is exactly what has happened here: Our REPORTED EARNINGS HAVE BEEN OVERSTATED, AND YEARS WILL PASS BEFORE THE TRUE COSTS ARE REVEALED. We're in the teeth of the true costs being revealed. It's called FISCAL PAIN, and it's always the cosequence of financial irresponsibility. Thank you Bend City Council.

What SHOULD we have done? Glad you asked. We should have done what any person, city, county, state or country does to smooth their economic cycles, by CHARGING HIGHER SDC's DURING THE GOOD TIMES (and socking it away), and lowering them during the slowdowns. YOU SAVE DURING THE GOOD TIMES, AND SPEND DURING THE BAD, it's plain common sense. What are we doing? 100% THE EXACT DEAD OPPOSITE. Unfortunately we've seen the ecstatic highs & we will now suffer the plummeting lows....

I like that phrase, "A form of self deception". Kool-Aid anyone?

Anyway, back to mstucker.

mstucker: Timothy,

Realtor and Realist do not necessarily go hand in hand.

Their hopes of the market picking up is just that, a hope. I just heard on KBND a short quote that Knoop said he sees the market picking up this spring. It's a safe bet to say that, considering it always picks up in the spring. Yes we will have more than 50 sales in March.

But that is not enough. Just prior to Knoop speaking the reporter said 2007 was off 26% over 2006 nationally.
I beliveve now that the national media is reporting more about the RE mess more folks will get to the panic phase quicker. I will bet 6 months from now we will see 26% less Realtors here. They will be out of any money they may have had stashed. 50 to 100 sales in Bend per month will not support the # of Realtors we have.

Most Realtors don't even know who Shiller is, nor have they seen the graph of OP arms resting in 2010-12. Yun is their man.
Foolish

If you ain't been here much, "Yun" is Realtor code for Let's Get This Party Started. NAR seems inclined to hire the first low-bid meth-huffing economist they can find. mstucker is just parroting what 104% of all humans know (margin of error +/- 2%) that Realtors as a group are still bobbing for apples in the Kool-Aid vat.

See, ignoring reality & reason has been such a lucrative mindset for so long that these people don't realize that they are like heroine addicts, jonesing for an activity that will ultimately destroy them. mstucker seems to have seen the light here, taken her methadone, and is now calling it quits. She'll come out ahead. The rest will perish on the slopes of Everest, "shussing" her.

Foreclosure Is The New Black - The Economics of "Fuck You"

Of course anyone who could fog a mirror KNEW this Bubble would not end well. But I've long maintained that the Exact Consequences would be extremely hard to predict. This one, I guess we should have seen coming.

Californicators have this way of making The Absolutely Abominable And Morally Reprehensible, chic & fashionable. From CBS:

There is a certain cold logic to just walking away. Kevin Moran, the real estate agent who gave Kroft the tour of foreclosed houses in the Weston Ranch subdivision, says it is happening every day.

They were never really invested. Most of the people who lost the houses didn’t lose any money because they never put any money down. Though their credit is damaged, and they could face legal action in some circumstances, they got to live in a new house for a couple of years, and some of them even managed to get some money with home equity loans or by refinancing.
"Nobody seems to be saying, 'Look, I made a contract with you. I borrowed money from you. I'm gonna do everything I can to pay off that obligation.'

People just seem to be saying, 'Look, take the house. Good-bye. I'm leaving,'" Kroft says. "There was a time, I think, when people felt really bad about not paying off a debt."
"Yeah, I think in those days, loans were made by your local banker or building and loan associations or savings and loan. They were guys you saw in the grocery store. They were on the little league team with you, the PTA, the school. And I think as mortgages became securitized and Wall Street became involved, they became very transactional and there was no relationship built with the borrower and the lender. And I think that makes it easier for someone to see it as an anonymous party at the other end of the transaction and just walk away from it," Moran says. "Just a business decision," Kroft says.

This is The Economic of Fuck You. A complete mental walk-away from the idea of contractual obligations. What used to be a stigma, is now becoming a social norm. I'm not sure how our inter-personal & business relationships will evolve if our propensity to default on our promises, without any hesitancy or remorse, becomes the norm. "Contract" will become meaningless. Even the US Government has jumped on the bandwagon, by slashing rates to nothing, even if it's means flipping China the finger (& the rest of the world for that matter) on their trillions in dollar denominated assets. As if our International image needed to be further tarnished, The World may see this episode as reason for pause when dealing with America. We won't need NAFTA or tariffs or other bullshit, when we are perceived as the World's Biggest Deadbeats.

America & Americans are finally at their Minsky Moment, and when faced with the choice of "Them vs Us", it should come as no surprise given the inane level of selfishness that has overwhelmed virtually every interpersonal exchange (FUCK YOU, I'm leaving my cart right in the driving lanes. FUCK YOU, someone else can pick up my dog's shit. FUCK YOU, I'll pass your ass on the right, even if it kills us both. FUCK YOU, I'll park in a handicapped spot and hang my little tag, even though I can walk fine.) in this stupid-ass country, that we are flipping the World the collective finger.

The Economy That Bubbles Built

I just have to reprint an article I posted in the comments:

PAUL B. FARRELL
A mind-blowing machine
In America, land of the bubbles, the next pop will be the biggest
ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Three cheers! Wall Street's got a new rally song: "I'm dreaming dreams, I'm scheming schemes, I'm building castles high."

Actually it's the 1919 tune that launched the roaring run-up to the '29 crash and the Great Depression. Remember the lyrics: "I'm forever blowing bubbles. Pretty bubbles in the air. They fly so high, nearly reach the sky. Then like my dreams they fade and die."
And it still fits today! Listen to venture capitalist Eric Janszen's scary new paradigm in "The Next Bubble," a Harper's Magazine report: "That the Internet and the housing hyperinflations transpired within a period of 10 years, each creating trillions of fake wealth, is, I believe, only the beginning."

Translation: The next bubble is already expanding. Now listen very closely as Janszen makes the single most dangerous prediction of 2008: "There will and must be many more such booms, for without them the United States can no longer function. The bubble cycle has replaced the business cycle."

After the collapse of the 1990s dot-com bubble we laughed at all the hype they had spewed: "This time it's different." "New paradigm." "New economy that only went up."

Well, stop laughing: The new, new came true, says Janszen. Seriously, the economy and the stock market can no longer function without an ever increasing series of bubbles, one after another, rapidly expanding then bursting, with all the manic trading, risk, uncertainty, hypervolatility and distortions that come with it.

Janszen traces bubbles through history: From the 1720's South Sea Bubble to the housing-subprime bubble. Bubbles are accelerating, becoming more frequent, a frenzy feeding on itself: "Nowadays we barely pause between such bouts of insanity. The dot-com crash of the early 2000s should have been followed by decades of soul-searching; instead, even before the old bubble fully deflated, a new mania began to take place."

What's so scary is not that the subprime bubble was happening so fast on the heels of the dot-com bubble, not that the pundits, the public and the policy makers all appeared to be ignoring it. What's really scary is that our best and brightest leaders in Washington, Wall Street and Corporate America wanted to create a bubble! They even threw jet fuel on this raging fire with cheap money, favorable taxes and minimal oversight.

Of course the Treasury and the Fed will never admit it, but they saw the housing bubble as a healthy economic necessity in their warped ideology! In their myopic minds, the housing bubble was the messiah "saving" America from a big, bad bear/recession.

Publicly they denied the bubble's toxicity, dismissing it as "regional froth." Privately, they conspired to create a massive new bubble driving America deep into debt.

'New economy' morphs into out-of-control robot

This new ideology is extremely dangerous: It assumes the American economy can no longer be managed by politicians or Wall Street quants. The "new economy" has a life of its own, a "Terminator" from a dark future, an "I, Robot" from Asimov's sci-fi world.

Yes, our economy has become a self-sustaining "bubble-blowing machine" inventing new bubbles at warp-speed even before the last is buried, in endless reincarnations of Schumpeter's "creative destruction" cycles.

What's next? More asset-backed bubbles. The dot-com '90s created $7 trillion in market value. The housing boom created $12 trillion in "fake wealth." Janszen predicts the next great bubble will be a $20 trillion "alternative energy" bubble. In fact, Wall Street's already hustling biofuels, solar, wind, nuclear, geothermal and hydroelectric as the new alternative energies destined to replace oil, gas and coal in this next new economy.

Timing? The new "alternative energies" bubble will last about 8 years, from a 2005 launch till a peak around 2013, when it will "creatively destruct," when all possible "fake wealth" is squeezed out, when investors wise up to the scam, when that new bubble pops.

In his finale, Janszen admits that when the "alternative energy" bubble finally self-destructs around 2013, "we will be left to mop up after yet another devastated industry," while Wall Street "will already be engineering its next opportunity."

But be warned: Even before we near the end of the "alternative energy" bubble, the law of unintended consequences could trigger a meltdown, not of the bubble but of the "bubble-making machine" itself! The machine will implode, taking down Wall Street, Washington, Corporate America ... and with it, the "new economy," the "new paradigm" and the "bubble-making machine!"

'Black Swan' self-destructs 'shadow banking' derivatives

The trigger? A "black swan" off the radar and invisible to the quants managing the world's derivatives.

The brilliant supertrader and risk manager Nassim Nicholas Taleb says a "black swan" is an extremely rare, improbable event (like 9/11) that cannot be predicted, yet has catastrophic impact. Black swans are events outside the vision, experience and technology of the world's derivative traders' geniuses.

What will the black swan destroy? How about the derivatives market that spreads so far beyond subprime loan obligations.

Pimco's Bill Gross warns that $500 trillion of derivatives are hiding in a "shadow banking system" that "craftily dodges the reserve requirements of traditional institutions and promotes a chain letter, pyramid scheme of leverage ... with no requirements to hold reserves against a significant 'black swan' run that might break them."

Derivatives have become a renegade army of "I, Robots." "According to the Bank for International Settlements ... total derivatives amount to over $500 trillion, many of them finding their way onto the balance sheets of SIVs, CDOs and other conduits of their ilk comprising the Frankensteinian levered body of shadow banks."

Shadowy? Pyramid schemes? Frankenstein? Terminator? Black swan: Gross paints a much darker future than Janszen: "The last two decades alone have witnessed pyramid schemes involving savings and loans/junk bonds, the small investor/dot-coms, and now global bonds/subprimes ... in each and every case the originator of a surefire 'can't miss' concept collected huge premiums from a willing investment public, only to see the pyramid collapse either of its own merits or from the lack of additional gullible investors. There will be more to come, much like a regular university that welcomes a never-ending stream of new 'students' who pay annual 'tuition' to be 'educated.'"

Higher truth

Never-ending: Gross and Janszen agree on that. But they're both wrong. The biggest flaw in Janszen's argument: "Given the current state of our economy, the only thing worse than a new bubble is its absence."

Wrong, wrong, wrong! Remember, this new paradigm assumes that the only way the American economy can exist in the future is if Wall Street's greedy "bubble-blowing machine" keeps feeding on itself, creating an endless, accelerating succession of ever-bigger bubbles.
Folks, that's one of the dumbest economic theories ever, silly "new age" magical-thinking touted as a scientific basis for the new self-indulgent ideology of Wall Street, Washington and Corporate America.

There's a higher truth: The best (not worst) strategy would be to let the "bubble-blowing machine" implode, live with the absence of a new bubble for a while, then quietly step back and reassess our unsustainable "growth-at-all-costs" economic policies that are secretly designed to benefit the self-interests of Wall Street's insiders who profit by endlessly blowing bubble after bubble ... after bubble ... after ....

Now, I'm not sure how much stock can be put in a study with a data set of 2 (NASDAQ Bubble and Housing Bubble), but he's got interesting ideas here. What started this Bubble Mentality? IMO, America Online.

Why AOL? Well, first start with a chart:


You might notice that little runup from $.09 in 1992 to $90 in 2000. That little 1,000-fold increase in market value was fairly unprecedented in market value history.

"Why the fuck should I buy boring-ass crap like IBM, Exxon, Coke, or whatever, when I can string together 1 or 2 AOL's, and even if I don't time it perfect I will be WAY better off than boring old Buy & Hold. Fuck that, you only live once & I'm swinging for the fences."

Swinging for the Fences (Bubble Investing) is a dominate strategy, EVEN when catastrophic losses are factored in. Look at eBay buying Skype, and other misguided Bubble Buys. But you can see that The Next AOL (Google), is not nearly the AOL that AOL was. AOL was a 100,000% knock outta the park, Google is up a relatively anemic 1,000% or so since it's IPO. Yawn.

And when the Economics Of Fuck You are factored in, you can mitigate MUCH of the contractual losses by offloading them onto your bank.

You're going to see the offshoot of this paradigm shift in bank stocks. Watch it Arabs: Americans learn everything we know from Cali-Spankers, and those bitches are going to start Walking Away. You hold a contract with an American? You Ain't Got Shit.

Little Olde BendBubble2 Bats 500

Dang, 500+ comments! Now I don't put a lot of stock in pure quantity, but seems that we are having our own little Bubble. I should do a chart of the number of comments each week. I remember starting out & getting 3 in a good week.

Welp, as I've said before, the good stuff here's in the comments. Mercifully my contribution is limited to just adding a thin veneer of humor (maybe?) to a situation that is not just dead boring, but glacially slow to unfold. But it IS the most important news & economics story in Bend history... most media outlets either don't know it yet, or do know it & refuse to report on it, or just print complete & utter bullshit about The Sun Coming Out Tomorrow. It's ain't.

And speaking of kickass commenters... let's celebrate a relative noob...

All Hail BRUCE!

Man, most noobs that stumble upon Ye Olde BendBubble2 get their ass waxed by UNKNOWN commenters (who dat?), and promptly flee. But "bruce" done made the jump to lightspeed, and has put up with almost unending taunts of "bruce pussy", and other intellectually stimulating banter. Plus Bruce actually seems to STILL be doing the leg work that fat-asses like me refuse to do. Plus he gives as well as he gets from Buster, and then proceeds to throw Buster a smack down that would exhaust the rest of us.

So Bruce, I salute you! Rock on Buddy! (Don't worry Buster, we still love you too)



BRUUUUUUCE! Damn, I love that video! Bruce channeling Bob Dylan channeling Manfred Mann, who in turn channeled Bruce. Now, I have to go make plans to elope with my bottle of Abyss....

395 comments:

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Anonymous said...

Awwwwww ... the softer side of Paul D -- actually giving a female some props! Another milestone.

Anonymous said...

Why the saturday post's now?

Are you going to church on sunday now instead??

Anonymous said...

The new Harpers has "RE BUBBLE" on front page.

The Bubble that Bush Built.

Anonymous said...

just filled up my growler at silver moon, am in the process of emptying it. I love this blog when I'm sober, and it is twice as fun when I've consumed 64oz of pilsner.

SpiderWoman said...

Scotland ringing in here - been following the Bend Bubble since leaving the fair state of Oregon. Figured I may as well add a comment to increase the ever-important comments numbers. When is there gonna be an Excel graph of the comments bubble?

By the by, where's the Excel graph of December's sales? And looking forward to the January one.

mstucker said...

Tx, maybe, for, (opps tx means thanks, for those that don't like abbreviations), get with the text thing boyz.
I believe 100% in what I have had to say here regarding RE(AB), I almost feel like I need to apologize for the entire RE community. But I can't control what they all do. Mike(at MLS) love you man, but can't pull the BS line.
I will be gone soon.
I am hoping that the Fed cut will help the OP arms that will be reseting for the next 3-4 years.
I...WANT to start this about I..but changed my mind.
If you don't have a hot/green house next spring and make a deal with your neighbors to trade vegi's, that, which we can grow here, you may want to take out the lawn and plant spuds. If you want beef find an friend with a big lawn.Have both..You city boyz may want to own a steer or pig this year. :)
p.s
I think thanks for the quotes.

yellowbeard said...

Mr. Doh -- who do you like for the next President of the United States? Inquiring minds would like to know.

Anonymous said...

Ms. Tucker can stay... she put up with anon crapppola. But I expect that it may continue. Especially when that drunk above me finishes his growler. (By the way, 'growler' is short for the Daily Growl, which is the newspaper my dog takes with him to read when he goes out back to take a shit. So when I read that you were all over your 'growler', I really did laugh out loud!!). So pay no mind to the drunken peanut gallery, Ms. Tucker. Think of it as 'feeling the love'.

Speaking of love:
"But "bruce" done made the jump to lightspeed, and has put up with almost unending taunts of "bruce pussy", and other intellectually stimulating banter."
----------

I think that the bruce pussy, or 'bruce wussy', or whatever, stuff actually was brought on by bruce himself. bruce likes to think quite highly of himself, and the anon peanut gallery just did him a big favor by taking him down a notch or two. Think of it as a public service done to protect the citizens (and non-citizens aka illegals) from the bruce tirades that seem to come about when bruce's wife is away on business trips, or when bruce comes back from one of the many city council meetings where they have to throw bruce out because they want to go into exec session and talk about how the city manager has a small dick and must be fired, or when they want to do some negotiations with (little) Dick Brogan aka (The New Les Schwab), but that is all understandable because bruce pussy knows all about the CC mtgs, but sometimes forgets to post the data that he said he would.

Therefore, bruce pussy must always be held accountable to adhere to his word, and forever after be called bruce pussy.

Anonymous said...

>>I am hoping that the Fed cut will help the OP arms that will be reseting for the next 3-4 years.

They could take the rate to zero and it won't help. The credit markets are frozen and the only thing that is going to get them moving again is to clear the excesses of the last 5 years out of the system.

That won't be easy.

Many analyst put the losses to U.S. bank for this lending debacle at 300-400 billion. That type of mark to market would crush their balance sheets and risk collapsing our financial system.

They can, however, continue to revalue their holdings to the tune of 20 billion in write downs a quarter for the next 3-4 years until all the crap gets cleared out.

Meanwhile J6P (joe six pack) rolls down to refinance his mortgage and can't figure out why nobody is lending new money against his POS (piece of shit) Bend craftsman that is dropping in value monthly.

Of course every time the Fed intervenes to keep the stock market propped up and the PPT (plunge protection team) moves to supports artificial highs we stop the market from punishing bad investments in its usual swift and certain manner.

If we take our medicine as swiftly as we dare to drink it we can get this done with and start rebuilding. Or, we could just do it like Japan did and have 14 straight years of real estate declines.

Interest rates rise and fall but that value printed on your ARM, IO or FIXED note is a 30 year mistake that no new money lender is going to make.

After all, J6P and the MSM (mainstream media) still thinks we had a real estate bubble, when, in fact, we had a credit bubble that produced a housing bubble.

The credit party is over - go home.

Jambo said...

Jambo,

I wuv dis blog. Me husband in Zimbabwe now has eleven mud huts but we have no goats.

I talk and talk about da mud hut bubble but no avail, now nobody want hut. Four years ago we had one hut, and twelves goats we richest family in da village.

We sold our last daughter into da prostitute as interest on da huts. Evera day I read dis blog to my husband do show him dat un Americans no smarter dan Zimbabweans. I was da realtor for village, now I must go to Nairobi to be prostitute, they may have internet cafe so I stay on top of blog but on bottom of john.

mambo jambo

Anonymous said...

It's 10pm, my back is sore, I spent the better part of the day shoveling snow, and clearing roofs, and then shoveling more snow.

I read the blog, and I realize my work is done.

bruce said...

Re: ...but sometimes forgets to post the data that he said he would.

Stay on my ass, there is so much I do forget sometimes.

What's amazing to me in this whole JR clusterfuck is that we had that OTAK masterplan way back in June, 2005. But the city staff recommended letting the "master developer" do their own, to the tune of up to $2 million. And the CC went along. And then LS came along, and once again the CC went along.

We really need some cheap ass motherfuckers on the CC, the kind that you have to wrestle the pennies out of their pockets to have a chance at selling them anything. Then we might actually survive the fucking train wreck heading our way.

I'll go meet with Sonia after I get the January budget detail. I really want to see if the revenue trends are continuing down or stabilizing a little. Judging from yesterday's article in the BULL, Sonia doesn't have any problem kicking people out the door to save money, which is a good sign. Now let's see if we can stop the talk about a big shiny new city hall...

After all, the team of concerned citizens just came in with their recommendations about how to speed up the permitting process. Me thinks the permitting process sorted itself out just fine. It was just a part of the bubble.

I'm working up the nerve to confront the CC head on on the exec session nonsense at Wednesday's meeting. First an email laying out the law and how people will respect and trust you more if you are straight with them, with attachments of examples of other cities doing it right. And then a comment from the podium urging them to do the right thing, not just because its the right thing to do, but because there actually are consequences for breaking the law.

bruce said...

Little note from patrick.net, on the fate of those blinded by the bubble:

About the linked Business Week article interviewing Michael Youngblood of Friedman Billing Ramsey & Co, who claimed in May 2006 that "there can't be a
national house-price bubble":

Friedman Billing Ramsey filed Chapter 11 bankruptcy on January 18 for its mortgage origination subsidiary, liquidating First NLC Financial Services LLC.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/newstex/AFX-0013-22370886.htm

Looks as if Youngblood remains in key management.

Anonymous said...

Of course every time the Fed intervenes to keep the stock market propped up and the PPT (plunge protection team) moves to supports artificial highs we stop the market from punishing bad investments in its usual swift and certain manner.

**

PPT is Lyndon LaRouche, do we now have la-rouchies here?

Anonymous said...

I'm working up the nerve to confront the CC head on the exec session nonsense at Wednesday's meeting.

*

Bruce pussy you have been working on this nerve to fix months.

You would probably do more good just to file an informal complaint with state, for not following the law. You might want to mention in council that your doing so, as there would be 'once last chance', aka 'high noon' we call in political standoff's.

They probably want to come clean more worse than you. Friedman is fucked, Capell has a bad back and horrible health problems, Linda must be freaking out over cascade, trouble is the masters behind the scenes Hollern, Bauhofer, Smith, Lietz, Brogman all want action, and action happens in secret.

I would just publicly tell them that they're digging a hole for themselves that given the city is bankrupt, the odds are that they're going to have to hire an attorney with their own money, that this is there last chance.

If think if you put it like above, they would change. Because they know your right.

If they tell you to fuck-off, then file your complain with State, by law the system is complaint-driven, as long as you have documented everything, then your fine.

JUST FUCKING DO-IT BRUCEY, but give them an out this wednesday, and let them KNOW you FEEL THEIR pain.

Nobody's have fun anymore, and the old way of doing business is over. YOU GOT to have some balls.

bruce said...

Re: JUST FUCKING DO-IT BRUCEY, but give them an out this wednesday, and let them KNOW you FEEL THEIR pain.

That is what I was thinking. I've already approached the mayor, now I am approaching all of you, and if that doesn't work, the complaint is ready to be filed. And once that is filed it doesn't go away and they will have to come up with some answers for the Ethics Commission. Which is headed by one Judy Steigler here in Bend, who by some accounts is a rabid Democrat.

I should probably get in touch with her, too.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

We really need some cheap ass motherfuckers on the CC, the kind that you have to wrestle the pennies out of their pockets to have a chance at selling them anything. Then we might actually survive the fucking train wreck heading our way.

Damn right! We actually had these people in abundance earlier this decade. Then this place went ape-shit on the Bubble Spending Spree of a Lifetime.

bruce said...

The Pools of Riverside County

RIVERSIDE, Calif. – Look around at the still-life of half-built neighborhoods and red-tiled roofs, all so new, planted during the Miracle-Gro years when homes became A.T.M.s.

Look closer and you think you’re staring into a ghost exurb – empty homes left to bankers. This is the new America, Southern California’s affordable edge city, drowning in a sea of debt. In the Inland Empire, the eastern-most suburbs of Los Angeles, one out of every 43 households is facing foreclosure proceedings.

Peek behind the palm trees and there you see the most shocking sight: abandoned swimming pools, fetid and green, left to the elements and choked with algae. Thousands of people have walked away without even draining the water. Mosquito control agents now patrol these murky pools, treating them with pesticides to keep disease-carrying larvae from forming.

“With the skyrocketing foreclosure rate, the problem is compounding daily,” said Jared Dever, a spokesman for the government district that monitors insect breeding grounds. He said about 2,000 abandoned swimming pools would have to be treated in just one part of Riverside County.

The new year dawned with banks set to repossess more homes than any time since the Great Depression – about 2 million residences, according to various forecasts.

Is this the image of our consumptive age: the empty swimming pools of Riverside County? The epitome of middle-class life as just another cash play? People who took out loans on houses they never could afford, hoping for a quick flip, have left this squalor under the sun to the mosquito-control agents.

Or maybe we should look just to the west, to Orange County and beyond, to the half-empty glass hulks of the banks that changed the rules of lending – Ameriquest, New Century and Countrywide, now being picked over by federal investigators and civil litigants.

Ameriquest, founded in Orange County, basically invented the subprime mortgage industry, figuring out numerous ways for borderline debtors to defy gravity. Now bankrupt, they settled a lawsuit for $325 million after being accused of predatory lending practices. Their slogan was: “Proud sponsor of the American Dream.”

New Century Financial, also founded in Orange County, flew just as high. It is now bankrupt and defunct.

Countrywide, based outside San Diego, spread like a retail virus until it became the nation’s largest home-loan lender. The company chairman, Angelo R. Mozilo, could end up as the face of the subprime meltdown. Last year, while stock in his bank tanked by 80 percent in value, Mozilo sold shares worth $166 million, according to the bank’s financial reports. For the last two quarters it has reported losses in excess of $1.5 billion.

It’s an old story, not even surprising: corporate leaders say one thing to the public – we’re on a roll! — while dumping stock just as fast as they can in private. For recent history, we only have to go back to Ken Lay and Enron. The surprise is that it keeps happening, with only the corporate names changing.

Earlier this week, Mozilo said he would give up $37.5 million in severance pay. But it’s small change for a man who sold shares worth $310 million during a three-year period when most of the helium was being pumped into the housing balloon.

You may have seen Mozilo with Jim Cramer or Maria Bartiromo on television, touting the great American housing miracle. It was all good, all up, up, up. Flip and roll. No man without a mortgage. Mozilo said every American who wanted to buy a home should be able to do so, and Countrywide made it nearly as easy to get a mortgage as ordering fries at the takeout window.

I knew something had drastically changed a few years ago when I saw a man with an advertising sandwich board standing at a busy intersection in Los Angeles; the board said, “Re-fi now – guaranteed low rates.” The banker as virtual squeegee man.

Now, you sense a meanness around the abandoned swimming pools of Riverside County. “Perhaps now we’ll see a removal of the low-class types,” wrote one man in a reader post for the North County Times, a Southern California newspaper.

“Too many house-flippers. Maybe they’ll be burger-flipping now,” wrote another.

Riverside County, stretching from Orange County to the Arizona border, is nearly the size of New Jersey. It added more than half million people in the last six years. Four years ago, this was Bush Country, with Republicans winning nearly all of the 100 fastest-growing counties in America, places like Loudoun County, Virginia, or Douglas County, Colorado.

Now, if you want to find some of the highest foreclosure rates in the country, you go the places where exurban America is pushing into farm fields and forests. In 2005 there were 12 home foreclosures in Loudoun County. Last year, more than 600.

Any fix to this mess won’t be easy. President Bush has proposed a plan. Democrats say it doesn’t go far enough. Who will get the blame, the backhand from those new homes filled with new voters?

People who bet their pensions, their savings, their college funds on something that seemed so safe now look at these wrecks on the banking frontier and wonder: what were we thinking?

It’s obvious what we were thinking, all of us – homeowners, appraisers, brokers, buyers, bankers. We were all in on the bet.


And of course there are some gems in the comments, including this one:



With horror stories like this, what are potential mortgage borrowers now supposed to do? As they attempt to refinance out of adjustable-rate mortgages in 2008, they are scared to death that they will be the next victims of predatory lending and possibly foreclosure!

I am a former senior loan officer for a regional mortgage bank. It made me sick to see how we took advantage of consumers for thousands of extra dollars. Sometimes these were smart people who simply didn’t know any better. So I developed this simple Mortgage Loan Comparison Worksheet. If borrowers just used this easy tool when shopping for a mortgage, predatory lending and the resulting foreclosures in this country could virtually be eradicated:

http://www.januspresentations.com/MortgageLoanCompariso nWorksheet.pdf

Problem is, most borrowers only make a decision once every seven years, so how would they even know what to look for? As a loan officer, my mission was not to educate, but to get a signature on the bottom line, at any cost.

As my “penance” I wrote a book entitled Kickback: Confessions of a Mortgage Salesman, now one of the best-selling books on mortgages on Amazon.com. Please let me know if I can help you with information for any further articles.

In my book, I list the Top 10 Mistakes Mortgage Borrowers Make:

1. Not knowing which mortgage fees the borrower can — and cannot — negotiate.

2. Choosing and trusting the first loan officer the borrower interviews.

3. Using an interest-only or “payment option” adjustable-rate loan primarily to qualify for a more expensive house than the borrower could normally afford.

4. Thinking the interest rate is always the main thing.

5. Not comparing the final fees listed on the closing documents to the up-front estimates to avoid the lender “packing the loan” with added-on fees without the borrower’s knowledge.

6. Not knowing if the mortgage has a pre-payment penalty - until it’s too late.

7. Thinking that renting is always just throwing money away.

8. The borrower does not know if he or she is paying a back-end yield spread or Service Release Premium.

9. Paying for mortgage life insurance, credit insurance or other expensive lender add-ons to increase the amount of kickbacks the lender can receive from various vendors.

10. Paying hundreds of dollars to have a company set up a biweekly mortgage payment plan, something the borrower can generally do for herself or himself — for free.

— Posted by Ted Janusz


And on that note, I've got to go shovel the berm the snowplow left down my sidewalk.

bruce said...

One last thing, just to piss you all off even more:

Subprime Lenders Get Big Accounting Break at SEC: Jonathan Weil

Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Just when it seemed as if the mortgage mess had hit a new low, now comes this: The Securities and Exchange Commission's staff has granted the subprime-lending industry a huge exemption from the normal rules for off-balance- sheet accounting.

In effect, the move will let home lenders keep their balance sheets looking much smaller and less leveraged, even while the off-the-books loans they made get a makeover.

For months, banking regulators and politicians have been pressing lenders to freeze the interest rates on many adjustable-rate subprime mortgages that are scheduled to reset soon at higher interest rates. The idea is to minimize defaults and foreclosures.

While that's a noble objective, all good deeds must be accounted for, and that's been a sticking point for many banks. Through September, just 3.5 percent of subprime mortgages that reset in the first eight months of 2007 had been modified, according to Moody's Investors Service. Even lenders inclined to help don't want to hurt their financial results. And now they might not have to, thanks to a Jan. 8 letter from the SEC's chief accountant, Conrad Hewitt.

Here's the background: Many lenders recorded upfront profits by selling loans in bulk to off-balance-sheet trusts -- known as qualified special purpose entities, or QSPEs -- which then repackaged the loan pools into mortgage-backed securities. The trusts are supposed to be beyond the lenders' control. And if the companies servicing the loans tinker with them in ways that aren't spelled out in the trusts' charters, the sales must be reversed, and the trusts must come onto the lenders' books, under the Financial Accounting Standards Board's rules.

Financial Constraints

That would mean much more assets and debt, possibly limiting banks' ability to make new loans. Not surprisingly, some of the biggest mortgage lenders, including Washington Mutual Inc., Countrywide Financial Corp. and Wells Fargo & Co., had been pushing regulators for a break.

By following new guidelines issued last month by a banking- industry group called the American Securitization Forum, Hewitt said servicers will be allowed to modify subprime mortgages where defaults are ``reasonably foreseeable,'' without jeopardizing the trusts' off-balance-sheet treatment.

Hewitt's letter came in response to requests by the ASF, as well as the Treasury Department and others. On Dec. 6, the ASF published a ``streamlined'' framework for evaluating subprime mortgages issued from January 2005 to July 2007, where the initial rates are scheduled to reset before August 2010.

Loans that meet certain criteria -- based on things such as low credit scores, the number of days delinquent, and high loan- to-value ratios -- are eligible for ``fast-track'' modifications, on the basis that it's foreseeable they'll default, the ASF said.

Losing Status

The wholesale approach includes lots of room for discretion. For instance, if a borrower's credit score is too high, mortgage servicers can use an ``alternate analysis'' and consider a ``tailored modification for a borrower.''

Hewitt said such modifications wouldn't cause the QSPEs to lose their off-the-books status, though he did call for more disclosures by lenders about QSPEs' activities.

Hewitt said he realized there's no way to know how accurate the ASF criteria might be at predicting actual defaults, because there ``is a lack of relevant, observable market data that can be used to perform an objective statistical analysis of the correlation.'' Still, he said the group's criteria looked reasonable, ``based upon a qualitative consideration of the expectation of defaults.''

Hewitt declined to be interviewed, as did FASB officials.

Little Discretion

The accounting standard at issue is FASB Statement No. 140. Its rules had envisioned QSPEs as brain-dead vehicles, akin to wind-up toys. Their actions are supposed to be automatic responses that ``were entirely specified in the legal documents that established'' the trusts. When servicers do exercise discretion, it must be ``significantly limited.''

``I do not believe mortgage modification in such a wholesale and proactive fashion can be reasonably viewed as significantly limited,'' says Stephen Ryan, an accounting professor at New York University, who specializes in financial instruments and institutions.

According to the ASF, many QSPEs' legal documents say loan modifications are permitted where default is ``reasonably foreseeable.'' However, the ASF framework wasn't published until last month. So there's no way the activities it describes could be fully specified in the charters at any of the affected QSPEs.

While it may be a good thing under current circumstances to give servicers incentives to modify lots of subprime mortgages, Ryan says, ``I think the chief accountant should have indicated he was providing an exemption to, rather than interpreting a vague area in, FAS 140.''

Changed Rules

The ASF's executive director, George Miller, says that ``the framework itself cannot be specified in trust documents that existed before the framework was issued.'' However, he says ``it does not need to be'' and that Hewitt's letter is ``not an exemption, just an interpretation'' of whether applying the group's criteria would comply with Statement 140.

This might be a slippery slope. Perhaps the auto industry could be saved, for example, if only we devise new accounting ``interpretations'' of the rules governing their massive pension liabilities.

Hewitt couldn't call his Jan. 8 letter an outright exemption, of course. Unlike the SEC itself, he doesn't have the authority to overturn the FASB's rules. Practically speaking, however, that's what he did.

The SEC and the FASB at least should acknowledge this subterfuge for what it is. Don't count on it, though.

(Jonathan Weil is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this column: Jonathan Weil in Boulder, Colorado, at jweil6@bloomberg.net


Gotta help those poor, miserable banks out, you know. It's the BushCo way.

All you Repug fucks that voted for that dimwit...ah, at this point I'm sure you hate him as much as I do.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Damn. Check out Timmy's "Preforeclosure" thread on BendBB. Used to be just 1 or 2 homes per post... now it's tens of homes per post.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Shit, and Page 7 of "Bend Losses" on BendBB shows that losses on homes that banks treat like ebola, are showing losses of 30% from the top. These are Real Losses comparing 2 sales, not Zillow bullshit estimated losses from the dead top.

We're still in a state of suspended animation (ala Pollock) about the sort of price slashing that it would take to actually jump start our local market. Apparently it is -30%... AND FALLING.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


Subprime Lenders Get Big Accounting Break at SEC: Jonathan Weil


Huh. Apparently our government believes that if you put a sack over the head of an ass-ugly chick & fuck her, that she ain't all that bad....

bruce said...

Re:
Now, you sense a meanness around the abandoned swimming pools of Riverside County. “Perhaps now we’ll see a removal of the low-class types,” wrote one man in a reader post for the North County Times, a Southern California newspaper.

“Too many house-flippers. Maybe they’ll be burger-flipping now,” wrote another.


Nah, now you'll get the real "low-class types", the squatters. Fifteen or twenty illegals to an abandoned McMansion. Their own little bit of paradise.

bruce said...

BTW, great video. The first music I ever bought was "Born To Run" way back in about '75. On eight-track tape...

MStucker said...

Are your ready for some football?
Go Pat's!
See ya all tommorrow, if I can get out of bed.

Anonymous said...

1) Is a chick
2) Can withstand a Buster Onslaught
3) Is actually not all that sanguine on the prospects for Bend RE
4) Is pretty good about posting timely Bend RE stats
5) Is refreshingly innocent ("What is a MILF?" God, I love that!)

*

Nobody I have ever seen here writes with so many abbreviations, but this RE-Abbreviate don't know MILF?

Don't know anger.

We should probably start making a list of what she don't know, as its going to be longer than what she does know.

timothy said...

Paul,

A lot of those preforeclosures belong to a few people. I think what's happening is the people who "went nuts" at the top, paying way too much in late 2004-early 2007, got crunched by the debt load. These are people who paid 50% more than the dude they bought it from paid two years earlier.

If you close your eyes, you can see the greed dripping out the corner of their mouths a few years ago. And the agony dripping out of the corners of their eyes now.

These are people who thought they were geniuses who had it made one day, then felt like fools the next.

Life has a way of kicking hubris heard, right in the ass.

timothy said...

>>See ya all tommorrow, if I can get out of bed.

What are you wearing?

BilboBend said...

Watching the fucking Football, is like Golfing.

So how many of you other than Ms. Tucker are actually watching the boobtube and getting drunk today?

bruce said...

Re: So how many of you other than Ms. Tucker are actually watching the boobtube and getting drunk today?

Me...kind of...since the Pack's out it's hard to get real excited.

Duncan McGeary said...

Well, Bend Cable, I want my fucking money back.

Worst reception ever. Were they in such a hurry to get HD in place that they didn't have time to calibrate?

Anonymous said...

Then like my dreams they fade and die."
And it still fits today! Listen to venture capitalist Eric Janszen's scary new paradigm in "The Next Bubble," a Harper's Magazine report:

*

Homer, I mentioned this story the other day, my wife gets Harpers, and I only read the title, the actual article is only about the bubble in the first 1/3, the last 2/3 is the history of shit ( human feces ), and then the holy grail of the next bubble, turning shit into energy.

Get's back to the debate my & bruce were having last week about IET, make coal out of garbage, and then turning coal into liquid fuel.

Here they're turning SHIT into coal, and then into liquid fuel. They expect the next bubble 2012 to be bigger than Real-Estate,

Dot-com $3Trillion, dot-RE $7Trillion, and dot-SHIT(energy) $12T, ...

Pretty interesting, and probably correct, now if we can just get the capstone turbine to run on raw shit.

Good historical review going back to WWII how the USA became world leader military and financial.

Now the only way for USA to maintain that position is endless bubbles. Probably fairly correct, but as you know when everybody is playing it, it will be over.

MStucker said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
MStucker said...

DAMN..NY

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Wow, I skipped all the Game except the final 3:00. Good finish!

MsTucker said...

Yes I am riding football. I can nines on tonight all I'm wearing is pon-pon's.

Now! Bye.

No Pat's, Yes Pat's, Go Pat's, No Pat's, Mo Pat's, Blow Pat's, No Pat's, Fuck Pat's, Mo Pat's, No Pat's, Go Pat's.

You boy's like MILF's I have lots of girlfriends.

MsTucker said...

Look What Your Missing

You may be in Bend, but if your good, next year I'll invite you to my super bowl party.

Quimby said...

>> So how many of you other than Ms. Tucker are actually watching the boobtube and getting drunk today?

*

Not me! There was NOBODY else except the pros doing what I was doing this afternoon and tonight. Bummer I can't say what it was.

bruce said...

Re: Pretty interesting, and probably correct, now if we can just get the capstone turbine to run on raw shit.

Not raw shit, but close. The methane from decomposing shit digestors.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Not me! There was NOBODY else except the pros doing what I was doing this afternoon and tonight. Bummer I can't say what it was.

Was it filming Gay Porn? Cuz I was also filming gay porn.

Just substitute "filming" with "eating", and "gay porn", with "the worst food at Wendy's ever consumed by humans".

People, do not eat at Wendy's. There is some really f&$@d up shit happening there. I had the grossest meal ever there, and besides the place is utterly filthy.

I'm pissed at myself for seeing how nasty it was & allowing my wife & kids to eat there anyway. I should be castrated.

Anonymous said...

Read the entire Bubble story in this week Harper's, then read the following.

The Wall Street Journal

Feb. 4, 2008
President Bush unveiled a $3.1 trillion budget that supports sizable increases in military spending and protects his signature tax cuts. The spending proposal, which shows the government spending $3 trillion in a 12-month period for the first time in history, squeezes most of government outside of national security, and also seeks $196 billion in savings over the next five years in Medicare and Medicaid. Even with those savings, Bush projects that the budget deficits in coming years, which had been declining, will soar to near-record levels.

Anonymous said...

http://bend.craigslist.org/rfs/562324652.html

Ouch, but its here, I have been saying for over a year, down -50% it wasn't that long ago that people were paying $500k, and expecting their SHEVLIN PARK mcMansions to go to $1M. Today $250k no problem.

Nice little house, ski out the front door, close to shevlin park, and owner will most likely take 4X bend median income on a low-ball. It's here folks.

Now we patiently watch for the over-correction.

***

This Fabulous Westside Home Has Been Reduced $35,000 and Can Be Yours...if You Act Quickly!*

Priced to sell at...

$289,400

2979 NW Merlot at Skyline Ranch

Anonymous said...

Ms Tucker,

I love your photo. How many children did you have? Your prolapsed uterus is rembrandt.

You mentioned your friends. Do you have pic's of your friends??

We need to have a party for the new girls soon at BendBB's Mobile home park.

MStucker said...

Looks like someone was posting for me last night.
Naughty Naughty

Anonymous said...

Portland get-rich-quick RE icon loses shirt.

***

Million Dollar Marginal Buyers

Ryan Frank wrote a great article in the Sunday’s Oregonian:

The 10,000-square-foot estate home in West Linn comes loaded with Mount Hood views, three wet bars and nanny quarters. It once fetched $3.3 million.
The neoclassical Italian-style villa in the West Hills: $1.4 million.
The 17th-floor riverfront condo in South Waterfront: $798,170.
All were coveted properties during Oregon's housing boom.
Today, all fester in foreclosure.
Oregon has so far dodged the mass defaults and plunging home values that plague parts of the country. Through September, Oregon had the nation's third-lowest rate of delinquent loans, and the rate remains far below the state's highs from the 2001 and 1980s recessions, according to the most recent figures from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
But more recently, real estate brokers who specialize in foreclosed homes say the nation's foreclosure troubles have crept into the Portland area.

Bill Ridge would qualify as a mortgage expert.
He owns dozens of rental properties, and his Ridge Mortgage Services in Tigard specializes in financing investor home purchases across the country.
In 2006, Ridge thought he saw a deal on the banks of the Willamette River.
That year, the first condo tower sprouted in the South Waterfront district. The Meriwether came amid a historic rise in Portland's downtown condo supply. Each project jutted into Portland's skyline, providing a visual reminder of how boom times can reshape cities. Last year, condos made up 16 percent of Portland-area home sales.
Ridge paid $798,170 for a place in the Meriwether.
But then: "My wife said, 'I hate the height,' " Ridge says. "It gave her vertigo."
They moved back to West Linn and put the condo up for rent. Ridge knew the rent wouldn't cover his $5,748 monthly mortgage payment, but he wanted to hold on to ride what he expected would be rising value.
In August, he put the condo on the market for $995,000.
No takers.
The next month, he stopped paying his mortgage.
In December, his lender put the condo into foreclosure.
"This is a rags to riches and back to rags" story, Ridge said.
"It's my own stupidity and my own fault I got into it."
He wasn't alone. Two other Meriwether condos went into foreclosure.
Ridge, 64, is determined to keep his mortgage company going, but he has similar troubles on other investment properties, and his mortgage business isn't what it used to be. "My company's income is going south, and my income is going south, too," he said.
Looking back, he said he tried to ride the boom too long.
"I got greedy."


There is a fine line between financial savant and idiot when you play with leverage. This is not a rags to riches and back to rags story, it is a story of somebody who used extreme leverage and lost control when home prices declined 1.5% from their peak. Ridge is the stereotypical million dollar marginal buyer that ate up the Portland market over the past few years.
DinOR was correct when he said, 'prices don't have to decline to mess up this town, they just have to stop rising.'
The article is really good and I encourage you to read the whole thing.

Oh and Ridge blames the foreclosure on his wife’s vertigo? Like you two couldn’t tour one of the other towers in Portland prior to taking on $800,000 in additional debt? Maybe he is expecting to lose her too.

timothy said...

>>http://bend.craigslist.org/rfs/562324652.html

I love it when the owner threatens to come back to town if someone doesn't hurry up and buy his damned house.

"All right you cowards. Buy this house or I'm moving back. Don't think I won't do it!"

Anonymous said...

I love it when the owner threatens to come back to town if someone doesn't hurry up and buy his damned house.


*

It's probably true, he can't afford to have two, and probably can sell the one in Colorado, but the one in Bend will not sell for ten years, unless he drops the prices to $120k.


Thus I would agree, its not a threat, its more of self pity.

He would be coming back to minimal employment, ah but perhaps he's a tele-commuter, and thus can survive the bend bubble implosion.

mstucker said...

mstucker (the real one) said...
Looks like someone was posting for me last night.
Naughty Naughty
----------

Yep. mstucker is the new anonymous.

It is really amazing, the things that mstucker posts on this blog.

Nice picture. How about more pics, especially from of your friends. Calling all mstuckers.

MsTucker said...

I talked with my son today, and I told him I had to go public out of professional courtesy.

We'll here is the bombshell.

BendBB is my son.

That's it, he's my boy, and I'm damn proud of him.

Duncan McGeary said...

Missed THAT conspiracy, busterbilbo!!!

Quimby said...

>> Was it filming Gay Porn? Cuz I was also filming gay porn.

Dammit! I thought we were going to remain anonymous. That's the whole POINT of the glory hole!!!!!!

Really though, I was drunk so ignore my comment from last night. But, I am a freak and didn't watch football. What a weirdo.

:D

timothy said...

I'm not much of a pro football guy. More of a baseball dude. I usually don't get excited by the Super Bowl. But I tell you that was about the best Super Bowl I've seen.

Anonymous said...

Since nobody these days qualifies for 'AAA' rating of any kind, Moody says lets just toss the whole system, and make everyone a winner!


***

The Wall Street Journal

Feb. 4, 2008

Moody's is considering a range of changes in the way it rates thousands of mortgage-related bonds and other vehicles hit hard in the credit crunch, including new warning-like labels that underscore the limitations of the rating. The firm published a letter to investors today seeking comment on proposals including new labels for its ratings or an overhaul in its system to replace the familiar triple-A to single-C rating scale with a 21-point numerical system.

Quimby said...

>> More of a baseball dude.

Tim, I've probably spilled beer on you at an Elks game!


Did anyone see the article in the BULL regarding the Developer who is suing the city for 2.5 million because it is forcing it to install infrastructure?????

OH MY GOD...PROVIDE INFRASTRUCTURE??......THE HORROR!!!!!! Looks like they recognize the gravy train is OVER.

Can someone with an account re-post this?

timothy said...

>>Tim, I've probably spilled beer on you at an Elks game!

Yeah, well, who hasn't?

timothy said...

>>Can someone with an account re-post this?

I don't have an account but it's a weird case. The original developer offered the moon in infrastructure, now the current developer says, hey are you crazy, this is way too much.

The odd part? The former developer and the current developer have the same address. Something smells funny.

newbie said...

MsTucker said... Yes I am riding football. I can nines on tonight all I'm wearing is pon-pon's.
Now! Bye.
No Pat's, Yes Pat's, Go Pat's, No Pat's, Mo Pat's, Blow Pat's, No Pat's, Fuck Pat's, Mo Pat's, No Pat's, Go Pat's.
You boy's like MILF's I have lots of girlfriend

***

Now THAT is high-larious!!! Someone here missed their calling as a comedian.

Anonymous said...

Oop's somebody has town the banks that they're losing money. Now its time to tighten, get your loan while you can. Loaning money in 2008, is no different than russian-roulette 1 our of 4 of your customers will lose his/her job.

***

Fed Survey Finds Banks Tightening Credit Banks, lenders anticipate economic deterioration in 2008

By Martin H. Bosworth
ConsumerAffairs.Com

February 4, 2008

A survey by the Federal Reserve shows banks are tightening credit standards on a variety of loans, including mortgages, and are expecting a continued worsening of economic conditions for 2008.

The survey, conducted in early January 2008, found that "80 percent of domestic banks reported tightening their lending standards on commercial real estate loans over the past three months," and that 55 percent of foreign banks indicated they had tightened their lending standards on such loans.

Forty-five percent of both domestic and foreign respondents reported weaker demand for commercial real estate loans over the past three months.

"A large number of domestic and foreign respondents pointed to a less favorable economic outlook and to a worsening of the conditions of, or the outlook for, commercial real estate in the markets where their banks operate as reasons for tightening terms on commercial real estate loans in 2007," according to the report.

The survey asked banks and lenders a set of special questions relating to current economic trends and the respondents' forecast of potential developments.

"Regarding loans to businesses, between about 75 percent and 85 percent of domestic and foreign banks expect a deterioration in the quality of their...commercial real estate loan portfolios," the report said.

"[A]bout 70 percent and 80 percent of domestic respondents expect the quality of their prime, nontraditional, and subprime residential mortgage loans, as well as of their revolving home equity loans, to deteriorate in 2008. Finally, about 70 percent of domestic respondents expect a deterioration in the quality of both credit card and other consumer loans."

The bankers and lenders interviewed for the Fed survey were particularly pessimistic about "loss mitigation strategies" designed to help troubled homeowners avoid foreclosure, even as foreclosure reports and delinquencies skyrocket around the country.

"Respondents anticipate difficulties in contacting borrowers, and they are concerned with borrowers' reduced motivation to retain possession of their properties. To a lesser extent, respondents also anticipate difficulties arising from a shortage of qualified loss-mitigation specialists at their banks," the report said.

The survey was based on responses from 56 domestic banks and 23 foreign banking institutions. The survey, which is conducted every three months, was completed before the Federal Reserve's recent aggressive moves to stem the economic woes caused by the mortgage meltdown and global credit crunch.

Anonymous said...

The former developer and the current developer have the same address. Something smells funny.

*

No thats just the City of Bend you smell.

The sweet smell of Siberian Tract Developments decaying in their own feces.

Who needs infrastucture when Bend is enmeshed in the largest power grid in the nation? We're going to be selling excess energy, we're going to be #1 again, we're coming back.


Generating methane forever for bruce pussy's sea of capstone micro turbine perpetual motion machines.

MsTucker said...

I have something here you all might like.

I think ya'all be forming a line at my back door for weeks to come.

I got what you want, and if you want it, come and get it


If you want it, here it is come and get it, ... Bend Milf pie, ripe, willing, and ready.

bruce said...

The bubble has truly burst.

Just went back into the County Records site, as I am going through January's records and counting how many are in 97701 and 97702.

So far in the two days that the recorders office has been open in February, 19 Notices of Default and Election to Sell have been filed.

Fourteen today alone.

It's really getting ugly.

newbie said...

http://bend.craigslist.org/rfs/562324652.html
Nice little house,...

... but where's the yard? I need a yard.

newbie said...

hous-562902600@craigslist.org

This one is on ONE ACRE and it's cute ... and only $299,000. Good deal - right?

Anonymous said...

\\|//


Developers of condos sue Bend for $2.5M
By Peter Sachs / The Bulletin
Published: February 04. 2008 4:00AM PST

The developers of a planned 432-unit condominium project off of Reed Market Road are suing the city of Bend for nearly $2.5 million, claiming the city is requiring them to make too many road and sewer improvements.

But the city says the suit is unjustified because the original developer proposed making the improvements.

The upgrades include rebuilding the intersection of Reed Market and American Lane, adding a signal where the northbound Bend Parkway off-ramp meets Reed Market and upgrading about 1,000 feet of sewer line at Northeast Revere Avenue, far to the north of the development.

“The city basically said, ‘Are you sure you want to do this?’, and they said, ‘Yes, we’re sure we want to do this,’” city attorney Pete Schannauer said.
The suit, filed in late January in Deschutes County Circuit Court, was brought by Central Oregon Investors LLC, which was created two months ago. The company said in the lawsuit that it took over the development from Mill District Partners.

A state database shows the two companies share the same Portland address. No one from the companies nor their lawyers could be reached for comment last week.

According to the suit, the road and sewer improvements are excessive compared with the actual road and sewer impacts of the project.

They seek about $2.5 million in damages because the road and sewer improvements are so large they effectively make the property worthless, according to the developers.

The Sun Ranch development would sit on the site of the current Sun Country Mobile Home Park, which has about 80 residents. In September, the Bend City Council unanimously agreed to rezoning the property for higher density.

Schannauer noted that the developers had two chances to publicly object to the road and sewer improvements. “One was before the hearings officer and one was before the City Council, and they never objected to them,” Schannauer said.

Bend Economy Man said...

You never added the Pine Nursery sports fields to the R.I.P. list.

What's going on with Mercado nowadays?

LavaBear said...

People, do not eat at Wendy's. There is some really f&$@d up shit happening there. I had the grossest meal ever there, and besides the place is utterly filthy.
>>

Grand Dandy...the place has had it's up's and down's over the decades but pound for pound the Grand Dandy has stayed strong. And of course Pilot Butte can put the coma on you in a good way. But you did mention once upon a time that you found Jake's Truck Stop. All three make you look Cali'ish for stepping foot in Wendy's.

mstucker said...

"People, do not eat at Wendy's."

Why not?

Anonymous said...

anyone going to the real esate forecast breakfast end of the month?

timothy said...

>>anyone going to the real esate forecast breakfast end of the month?

I can see that thing going one of two ways.

1) Like a wake. Everyone dressed in black and crying.

2) Like the Mad Hater's Tea Party.

MStucker said...

A RE broker after my own heart. Bend sellers need truth like this.
Cudos to this guy.

http://www.phoenixrealestateguy.com

"Do You *Really* Want to Sell Your Phoenix Home?

Sometimes I have to wonder…

Here are the particulars:

Gated condo in a golf course community. Lovely home. Grossly overpriced at $245K.
Languishing on the market for 201 days.
Last unit sold in the development was in August 2007 for $228K. Same model. A perfect comp, other than it sold six months ago.
Our buyers are from Canada. Down for a few days to view homes and they like this development. We figure OK, the last sale was $228K, prices have dropped since then roughly 7%. That’d put it at $212K. So let’s offer $200K and see where we go from there. Cash offer, with proof of funds available. We expect a counter.

(And before anyone jumps in, please keep in mind the offer price was derived from much more in-depth analysis. I’m summarizing here for brevity — something I don’t usually excel in…)

Lo and behold we get a counter:

Price to be $230K (higher than the last sale six months ago, in a generally declining market mind you).
Doubling of the buyer’s earnest money amount (in an all cash deal with closing just 11 days post inspection period???)
Adding conditions that make the buyer’s earnest money non-refundable. (WTF?)
Notice that the HOA fees were 14% higher than what was in the listing (uhm, try updating the MLS. It takes 15 seconds).
Changing the choice of the buyer’s title company (let’s make it as inconvenient as possible for our out-of-country buyers).
Huh?

Are you just playing a game, listing your home hoping the combination of ignorant buyer and lousy agent stumble across it?

Buyers have a bazillion other homes to chose from. Well, maybe half a bazillion because it’s likely there are a bunch of other listings in the mix that the owners really have no intention of selling.

If you really want to sell your home here are a few simple tips.

Price it properly. Wanting 20% more than it’s worth is understandable, but it’s not realistic.

Make sure the info in your listing is updated. Things like getting notice of increased HOA fees tend to annoy people. Annoying a prospective buyer in this market is generally a bad idea.

If the buyer presents solid loan qualifications or is a bona fide cash buyer, don’t get greedy with earnest money demands.

You don’t have to suck up to buyers, but really in the grand scheme of things, does the title company really matter? (see “do not annoy buyer” above)

It’s a buyers market in Phoenix (and many other locations across the country). Like it or not, buyers are pretty much in the driver’s seat. If you get an offer, it’s a proclamation that “Hey! Someone is interested in purchasing your home!” To squelch that right out of the gate is just silly.

And it is proof positive you don’t really want to sell your home."

OK stop making up posts for me you sicko.

MStucker said...

I eat at Dandys never Wendys

Anonymous said...

They seek about $2.5 million in damages because the road and sewer improvements are so large they effectively make the property worthless, according to the developers.

*


At last the truth comes out, raw land in or near, or around bend is worthless, well not really worthless, 1500 for $1, is 0.000667 cent/acres.

When you have to pay SDC it doesn't look so good does it??

The taxpayers of Bend are no longer paying your commission, and/or profit.

msTucker said...

I'm going to the real estate forecasters breakfast and I got an advance copy of the La Menu

See you all there.

Anonymous said...

Central Oregon Investors LLC, which was created two months ago. Before that Mill District Partners LLC,

Bill Smith were are you??

In the old days if you had a problem, Les Schwab would bail you out.

Today, if you have to pay SDC then you can't make any money off Bend Island desert.

Don't worry about having dozens of LLC's all at the same address or even 1,000's of LLC's at the same address, Mike Hollern has been doing this for years, and nobody ever noticed the address in the past.

bruce said...

Re: Cudos to this guy.

That is good knowledge.

If my relatives decide they want to invest here (they've made such noises, which I have successfully tamped down to date) you will have to let me turn them over to you if and when such a time comes.

Subject to review, of course. But you seem real.

Anonymous said...

MsTucker said...
If you want it, here it is come and get it, ... Bend Milf pie, ripe, willing, and ready.
***
Boy, you misogynists really know how to drive the women away -- and after Paul D'oh done give mstucker a big old green light to be one of the boys. But mstucker's a stubborn ol' broad, so you have our work cut out for you.

However, it certainly has amped up the humor factor several notches. Funnnyyyy!

timothy said...

>>I eat at Dandys never Wendys

Is Dandy's the drivethru on 3rd? I love that place. There's another drivethru on Greenwood and their burgers taste like dig dry lumps of sawdust--no flavor at all.

mstucker said...

Paul D'oh done give mstucker a big old green light to be one of the boys.

[ Old Homer loves the Milf-Pie, but hates the woman, its always been a conundrum here. Hey Homer, nothing sweeter than cougar pie ala Bend, for half the price. ]

Anonymous said...

Anybody notice here that the BULL has been doing two DUII story's per day for weeks, the world is going to hell, not much to talk, about, but that drunk-driving problem.

First of all this problem ain't new, albeit all these drunk calis in their SUV on ice, isn't pretty.

Now before you all attack me, note that I'm a major proponent of being in walking distance from our own beer-muda triangle ( silver moon, mcMennamins, Bend-Brew ).

This is just like the METH thing that the Oregonian did a few years ago, they created a hysteria.

The only thing I can see coming is traffic stops or something I simply refuse to believe that the BULL has made DUII public enemy #1 right now for lack of any other hysteria to whip up.

A few weeks ago they told cop storys, and told a story about a cop whose life mission is cracking down on DUII, his name was Chandler,

Isn't this the same cop that was on a motorcycle this summer doing 120mi/hr coming down from Santiam, and refused to stop?? Tell me this guy isn't out of control, the the BULL has the balls to use him as an example of law & order?? If this town had balls this cop should have lost his job for evading state police, if me or you would have gotten caught it would be a year in prison

timothy said...

Apparently no one was getting killed on the roads during the real estate bubble. Or at least no one important enough to bump "What's Going Up" and delirious orgasmic breathless pronouncements of the superiority of CO RE.

Anonymous said...

Apparently no one was getting killed on the roads during the real estate bubble.

*

If you read the BULL now you would see that their is an epidemic of drunks on the road.

I think its probably the number one complaint of tourists is 'traffic', and lack of parking. Solution, more towing, and putting red-necks in the bus. That will make the traffic better for the gentry.

But first we have to create a panic and keep everyone off the roads, and make them safe for the gentry.

It's clear that the BULL is up to something.

Yes, Duncan now this is a conspiracy, and most likely the BULL is brown nosing the County, which wants more jails, more cops, and more judges, YOU WANT, and the BULL will deliver.

You want a war?? A good newspaper can create one.

LavaBear said...

You want a war?? A good newspaper can create one.

>>

WTF?? Did you just call the BULL a "good newspaper"?

Anonymous said...

Hey, doom and gloomians! Take heart. Bend ain't f#$%ed! Nowhere near the list baby:

http://money.cnn.com/real_estate/zip_code_foreclosures/index.htm

Pack up your "Bend is F*#!ed" Mantra and ship it to Vagas.

Anonymous said...

WTF?? Did you just call the BULL a "good newspaper"?

*

I was thinking of the US Spanish war in Cuba, at the turn of the century Hearst told TR anytime you want a war, I can make you one.

TR later said, I fine little war indeed. Read "Rough Riders".

This is what newspapers are for, creating hysteria, and manipulating the masses.

A good newspaper is a paper that beckons the call of the boss-hogg aka Hollern, and distracts the publik from their misfortune.

Anonymous said...

Hey, doom and gloomians! Take heart. Bend ain't f#$%ed! Nowhere near the list baby:

http://money.cnn.com/real_estate/zip_code_foreclosures/index.htm

Pack up your "Bend is F*#!ed" Mantra and ship it to Vagas.

*

This is tired OLD debate Bend, will never be of the league of Vegas, because we weren't Vegas. Bend will never show up on #1 list of foreclosures, because were they're getting 5,000/mo, we'll get 5,000 during the collapse. No comparision.

What we do know is that Bend was #1 for appreciation, and will most likely be #1 for loss as what goes up, comes down. Will this even make the national press??? Hell NO!

The CNNFN.com survey for Bend being over-valued for 04,05,06 never made the national press either its wasn't news, because NOBODY cares about a little desert Island town of 60,000 or less souls with 5,000 homeless and exponentially growing.

Bend will be the stuff of history books and nothing more.

So, for you realtors who sit smug and say "LOOK AT VEGAS", all I can say is BEND ain't vegas, look at the moon, that's a lot of cheese, but so what, we can't eat it.

LavaBear said...

>>Hey, doom and gloomians! Take heart. Bend ain't f#$%ed! Nowhere near the list baby:
***

The DOW is down 300+, the S&P 40 ish, the Fed for the first time used the "R" word, you have just posted some pretty freakin' scary stats for Bend's largest "screw it I'm moving to Bend" markets. It's good news how??? Are you sure about that?

Ah what the hell...it's the best time in 20 years to buy! Let's write that offer.

Anonymous said...

Hey, doom and gloomians!

*

We're not doom and gloom, we're optimistic realists.

Dim 1980's were the best of times, once the BEND RE medians go down 50% the equity locust form cali will leave all Bend, because there are no jobs here, nuttin, just a desert town out in the middle of no where.

What you call 'doom & gloom', I call Bends second chance to clean up its fucking mess. A new day I see in Bend.

Not doom & gloom, seeing a line of calis in their U-Hauls heading out of town is my idea of better times ahead.

Anonymous said...

Ah what the hell...it's the best time in 20 years to buy! Let's write that offer.

*

BULL FUCKING shit, we're NOT even down to 2002 prices, we're going 1998, which is -80%.

When we get to $120k, which is the median of working service-sector 4X income family unit, then we're only the best prices in 10 years.

Hell the best prices in 20 years would take us down under $50k, which would be -90%.


Bend has a long fucking way to fall, before the working poor can afford to buy a home in this town. Note that rich were always a myth, unless you all fucking thought that selling a min-wage moron a home in Shevlin for $500k was going to make everyone rich.

They're going to walk from their homes by the 1,000's once the layoff's hit.

Too many poor were sold homes, in order for a home to pencil for a family on min-wage Bend income, the home has to go under $100k.

Anonymous said...

The CNNFN.com survey for Bend being over-valued for 04,05,06 never made the national press either its wasn't news, because NOBODY cares about a little desert Island town of 60,000 or less souls with 5,000 homeless and exponentially growing.

NOT TRUE. Bend was listed on CNNFN many times during the boom. Hovering right around SanDeigo. It was also quoted many times in CNNFN about Bends out of wack price appreciation. Wish I had saved screen shots of 'em....

LavaBear said...

>>I was thinking of the US Spanish war in Cuba, at the turn of the century Hearst told TR anytime you want a war, I can make you one.

I was thinking Citizen Kane...but same difference. Thus I am skeptical that the BULL has the sway or intelligence that Orson Welles had.

Anonymous said...

SERVICE SECTOR is FUCKED, there go them fucking BEND tele-commuter jobs, now the fucking pain begins for those in Bend that make more than min-wage.

***

Services data add to US economic gloom

By James Politi in Washington

Published: February 5 2008 15:09 | Last updated: February 5 2008 15:09

Activity in the US services industry contracted in January for the first time in five years, according to a closely-watched survey, adding to gloominess about the economic outlook as businesses suffered from a combination of weak demand and rising costs.

The Institute for Supply Management’s non-manufacturing business activity index, which records the temperature across vast swathes of the US economy, fell from a seasonally adjusted level of 54.4 per cent in December, signalling an expansion, to 41.9 per cent in January, indicating a contraction.
EDITOR’S CHOICE
Video: Thorold Barker on signs of recession - Feb-05
US urged to focus on housing crisis - Feb-03
US homeowners confound predictions - Jan-31
Weak growth heightens recession fears - Jan-31
US suffers first drop in jobs since 2003 - Feb-02
Lex: US growth disappoints - Jan-30

Most economists had predicted that activity in the services industry would slow, but the ISM index would fall only slightly to 53 per cent.

The sharp contraction in services businesses - from financial services to healthcare and lodging – is likely to raise the odds of a US recession in 2008. It also makes it more likely that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates at its next meeting in March.

“If the move does stand up on revision, then it suggests a significant and sudden broadening out of the weakness in the US economy,” wrote analysts at Goldman Sachs. “In its short history (since 1997) this survey has rarely produced readings below 50 outside recession”.

Anonymous said...

I was thinking Citizen Kane...but same difference. Thus I am skeptical that the BULL has the sway or intelligence that Orson Welles had.

*

Don't think 'citizen kane', because that would infer that the folks that owned the BULL, had balls & bucks. The folks that own the BULL have neither.

This town is owned by Mike Hollern, and he is our Citizen-Kane, but he don't need to own no fucking worthless newspaper biz, he keeps all his money tied up in desert crap-shacks that have no buyers.

Regional papers like the BULL are fucked, thats why they charge for internet, the trend is to stop print and delivery nationally, eventually there will only be local blogs, and national blogs, there may be no print, as the cost is too high, there is no way in hell that fifty cents can cover the cost.

Newsprint isn't even a good way to advertise, direct is better for retailers.

Anonymous said...

“If the move does stand up on revision, then it suggests a significant and sudden broadening out of the weakness in the US economy,” wrote analysts at Goldman Sachs. “In its short history (since 1997) this survey has rarely produced readings below 50 outside recession”.

*

Boyz the above is worth sinking your teeth into, the service sector is fucked, and that is what finances all these fucking Milm's that bike,hike, and wine in this fucking town. We're going back to 1998 prices, and fucking quick, our tele-commuters are fucked, cuz they're the easiest to terminate, no pain and suffering @ HQ.

Note my use of MILM is ( middle age male ), not quite a retiree, but came to Bend, cuz he/she could live anywhere, and now they're fucked.

I have said for almost a year now, if you bought since 1998, and paid over 1998 prices for RE, your fucked.

Newbies for reference a spanking new house in the best part of inner west could be had for $120k in 1998, and those homes were being sold for $500k in 2005, and $240k in 2002.

It's all going back to what level that working folks can pay, and that is $120k ( 4X $30k/yr household income, on min-wage job ).

bruce said...

For Anonymouse 11:19

"Positive Strategies and Staying Motivated in a Difficult Market"

Wed, Feb. 6, 10 AM to Noon at Central Oregon Association of Realtors, Meeting Room, 2112 NE 4th St., Bend. This event, designed for realty professionals, is hosted by BrickKicker Home Inspection and features speakers Dennis Hungerford, of Sandler Sales Institute, and Steve Brandt, of Legacy Hypnosis. Cost is $10. Proceeds will go to Habitat For Humanity. Contact: 330-1742

Anonymous said...

OK. So some people just moved into a house next to us in Plainview area. Paid 10K under asking. They're from Albany. Doesn't so much sound like a tanking market to me. House across the street sold in November. Again, 10K under asking. Sounds more to me like we're back in '99.

timothy said...

>>So, for you realtors who sit smug and say "LOOK AT VEGAS", all I can say is BEND ain't vegas, look at the moon, that's a lot of cheese, but so what, we can't eat it.

I prefer a nice Wensleydale.

timothy said...

>>NOT TRUE. Bend was listed on CNNFN many times during the boom. Hovering right around SanDeigo.

Actually, for most of that time we were fighting Naples for the title. Naples got about 90% of the press. We got the scraps.

bruce said...

'It's going to be much worse'
Famed investor Jim Rogers sees hard times ahead for the United States - and a big opportunity looming in China.
By Brian O'Keefe, senior editor

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- You might expect Jim Rogers to be gloating a little bit. After all, the famed investor has been predicting a recession in the U.S. economy for months and shorting the shares of now-tanking Wall Street investment banks for even longer. And with fears of a recession sparking both a worldwide market sell-off and emergency action from Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, Rogers again looks prescient - just as he has over the past few years as the China-driven commodities boom he predicted almost a decade ago began kicked into high gear. But when I reached him by phone in Singapore the other day there was little hint of celebration in his voice. Instead, he took a serious tone.

"I'm extremely worried," he says. "I have been for a while, but I just see things getting much worse this time around than I expected." To Rogers, a longtime Fed critic, Bernanke's decision to ride to the market's rescue with a 75-basis-point cut in the Fed's benchmark rate only a week before its scheduled meeting (at which time they cut it another 50 basis points) is the latest sign that the central bank isn't willing to provide the fiscal discipline that he thinks the economy desperately needs.

"Conceivably we could have just had recession, hard times, sliding dollar, inflation, etc., but I'm afraid it's going to be much worse," he says. "Bernanke is printing huge amounts of money. He's out of control and the Fed is out of control. We are probably going to have one of the worst recessions we've had since the Second World War. It's not a good scene."

Rogers looks at the Fed's willingness to add liquidity to an already inflationary environment and sees the history of the 1970s repeating itself. Does that mean stagflation? "It is a real danger and, in fact, a probability."
Where the opportunities are

The 1970s, of course, was when Rogers first made his reputation - and a lot of money - as George Soros's original partner in the Quantum Fund. And despite his gloomy outlook for the U.S., he still sees opportunities in today's world. In fact, he sees the recent correction as a potential gift for investors who know where to head in global markets: China.

Rogers has been fascinated with China ever since he rode his motorcycle across the country two decades ago, and he's been a full-fledged China bull for several years. In December he published his latest book, an investor-friendly tome titled "A Bull in China: How to Invest Profitably in the World's Greatest Market." And that same month he sold his beloved Manhattan townhouse for $15.75 million to a daughter of oil tycoon H. L. Hunt and moved his family full-time to Singapore - the better to be closer to the action in Beijing and Shanghai. (He bought the New York mansion 30 years ago for just over $100,000; not a bad return on his investment.)

But in a November interview I conducted with Rogers, he admitted that he was rooting for a serious correction in China to cool off an overheating market and bring back prices to a reasonable level. With the bourses in Shanghai and Hong Kong both some 20% off their recent highs as of late January, Rogers says he's starting to consider new investments.

"I'm delighted to see what's happening in Shanghai and Hong Kong," he says. "As I've said, if things hadn't cooled off, the Chinese market was in danger of turning into a bubble. I find this most encouraging. The government's been doing its best to try and cool things off. Mainly they've been trying to deal with real estate but it's having an effect on stocks, too. I would suspect the correction isn't quite over in China. But I'm gearing up. I didn't put in any orders for tomorrow but I'm starting to prepare my list of things to buy in China. Whether I buy this week or this month or this quarter, who knows. But I'm starting to think about buying new shares in China for the first time in a while. And I'm not thinking about buying in America."

Ultimately, Rogers doesn't think that the troubles in the United States will be much of a drag on the prospects for the People's Republic. "Anybody who sells to Sears (SHLD, Fortune 500) or Wal-Mart (WMT, Fortune 500) is going to be affected, without question," he says. "Some parts of the Chinese economy are going to be untouched, however. They won't even know America's in recession. They won't care if America falls off the face of the earth."

What's on his China buying list? Rogers says it will depend in large part on which stocks come down to the right level, but he's keeping his eye on certain high-growth sectors including tourism, agriculture, power generation and airlines.

The pullback in commodity prices on recession fears hasn't dampened his enthusiasm for resources investments, either. More like a cyclical correction in the middle of a long-term bull market. "Certainly some commodities are going to be affected," says Rogers. "But it's not as if the markets haven't figured this out. Remember the old expression: 'Dr. Copper is the best economist in the world.' Well, Dr. Nickel and Dr. Zinc figured out a few months ago what I thought I had figured out, that we were going to have a recession. Nickel is already down 50%. Other commodities may fall more. But I don't see the economics of agriculture being much affected at all. Maybe there will be a few less cotton shirts bought. Maybe there will be a few less tires bought. But the supply is under more duress than the demand."

Once again Rogers draws on the 1970s in his analysis. "Think about the story of gold in the '70s," he says. "Gold went up 600%, and then it started correcting. It went down nearly every month for two years, nearly 50% from the high point. And everybody said, 'Well, that's the end of the gold market. It was just a fluke. It's over.' It scared everybody out. And then gold turned around and went up 850% from that level. This is what happens in markets. But the fundamentals of the secular bull market in commodities are not over any more now than they were for gold in the '70s."

Where he expects the pain to be most intense is on Wall Street. He says he hasn't covered his short positions on the investment banks or Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and won't for a while. "Those things are going to go way, way, way down," says Rogers. "The investment banks are down now because of the problems in the credit market. Wait until the effects of the bear market come along. If you just go back and look at other bear markets, investment bank stocks have gone down enormously. We haven't gotten to that stage yet. It's going to bring their balance sheets under duress. This is going to get much worse. But that's where there have been excesses for the past decade or so. And whenever you have a bear market come along the great excesses of the previous period are the ones that get cleaned out the most."

He'll be watching - from Singapore.

From Fortune.

timothy said...

I like Rogers. "Hot Commodities" is a great book.

OUR EGO said...

NOT TRUE. Bend was listed on CNNFN many times during the boom. Hovering right around SanDeigo. It was also quoted many times in CNNFN about Bends out of wack price appreciation. Wish I had saved screen shots of 'em....

*

DUDE, When I say "national news", I'm talking Oprah, and NOTE I don't watch TV, nor OWN a TV, nor have I ever seen fucking Oprah.

You mention a fucking 'screen shot', nobody even fucking knows what cnnfn.com is except fucking nerds, like Duncan says, and I'll say it for him, "bubble-heads think they and they're internet are too fucking self important", the average guy on the street don't have time, inclination, nor intelligence to read shit on the web.

When I say NATIONAL, I'm talking shit being spoon fed to the masses, everyone is talking about LAS-VEGAS cuz everyone has been there, NOBODY gives a fuck nor, has been to Bend.

Bend's collapse will be in history books by Harvard about case history of RE fraud from the 2006 depression.

Me & Duncan like philosophy, and trends and history. In the big picture, these blogs don't mean shit, and neither does Bend,OR. #2 over-value appreciation was Prescott, AZ which the average person never heard of either.

The fascinating thing to ME, is how a bunch of con-artists ( HOLLERN, BAUHOFER, SMITH, ... ) got a retirees to spend their life savings on an isolated desert shit hole, but then again HOLLERN came from TV and got is CALI MBA in advertising & PR. Thus it makes perfect sense, from a history point of view Bend, OR is only fascinating because of the scale of the people a few losers scammed.

Note that the reason HOLLERN went back to CALI to get his MBA in the 60', is that as MONTANA TV anchorman he was a failure. When he got to Bend, and started selling Black-Butte ranch, he got his shit together, and then almost lost it during the 1980's recession, then post 2000, he hit pay-dirt, because he owned the town, and didn't have to pay SDC's.

This is the ONLY STUFF that's interesting.

Nobody except MBA's will ever know, cuz nobody gives a fuck about Bend, OR.

Anonymous said...

That's probably why the average guy on the street with 3 homes to flip is going through bankrupcy. He watched too much Oprah...

dartagnan said...

Serious question: At what point does a MILF morph into a cougar? Or are we talking about two distinct species?

dartagnan said...

In the big picture, these blogs don't mean shit ...

Most intelligent statement I've read here in months.

Anonymous said...

That's probably why the average guy on the street with 3 homes to flip is going through bankrupcy. He watched too much Oprah...

*

That's what I like most about the DUMBYA economy is that everyone was a player.

I mean in the past a few folks got rich, but in the DUMBYA years 2001->2006 everyone voted for the bastard a second round, everyone loved their SUV's, their golfing, big-dicks, big-tits, ...

What fucking genius TEAM-DUMBYA is/was, trouble is they BLEW the fucking USA wad. Sure, there may be a ALT-ENERGY bubble, and ya there are still a few people with lots of money.

Oprah, I'm OK, YOUR OK, we're ALL OK, foreclosures are OK, ...

Oprahs people ( the blacks ) are hurting bad, they were all sold SHIT-SHACKs in detroit, ... that are now worth nothing, I mean forget about white-trash in Bend, think about the tens of thousands of AG-mexicans on min-wage that bought $750k homes in sacramento, and the tens of thousands of blacks that bought $300k homes in Chicago now worth $30k, or blacks in Atlanta that paid $500k for homes that now auction for $100k start-bid, and there are NO takers, ...

Oprah rode the wave, and everybody deserved to be rich, and now everyone deserves pity, the pity of losing it all, but its OK, to walk from your home, ...


The average GUY with two kids, and a job HE hates, has always been TOO BUSY to fuck around on the internet, ... or CB-Radio, or whatever is the yak-yak forum of the day.

I don't think the average guy bought 3 homes, but certainly the lazy guy that didn't like to work did, and he bought 4 without a job. The trouble for the average guy is he bought HIGH, and bought for zero-down, cuz he could, he was going to get rich, and quit work, and stay home with the kids and live the dream.

Now the dream is a nightmare for millions of Americans.

The guy that bought 4, will just go back to hustling, there will always be hustles, if your used to not working. The hardest is for the guy that really does work, and is laid off cuz there are NO jobs in Bend, and can't afford his $2k/mo Shevlin MTG.

The Pain, the pain, the pain, its coming. The city of Bend fiddles. The BULL cracks down on drinking and driving, but there is no work, and all people do is drink & drive, because their car is the last thing they'll never walk away from.

A few days ago the BULL reported 5,000 people in Bend were living in their cars, and NOTE the layoffs haven't even started.

Just a few weeks ago the un-employment of Bend went up 36%, and thats just for the on-top-the-table jobs.

DUMBYA was genius, he got the votes, he got two terms, and made everyone a player, everyone rich.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous dartagnan said...

In the big picture, these blogs don't mean shit ...

Most intelligent statement I've read here in months.

*

Thanks DART, coming from you, that's a badge of honor.

I did want to reflect on your comment the other day, wrt to Napolean-Hill "Think & grow rich", if you have the desire you can do anything, I think you were calling some of that bullshit, I was raised on all those books, "You can do anything if you put your mind to it".

Where is this today?? Where is the can do anything optimism?? Hell I always thought I could do anything.

Now I'm going to get to the point.

One of the major quotes of that time and genre was "Tell the world what your going to do, but show it first".

This one is for bruce-pussy, forever he tells us what he's going to do, but generally never does shit. Ok, he put up a website for the LS sales agreement, and goes to few council meetings, ... but he's told us many times about all the shit he's going to do, ... FUCKING BRUCE JUST FUCKING DO-IT.

Now Dart, I do agree in your comment a few weeks ago about the partners, and one was a realist, and the other said "If you have a positive attitude, the economy will come back". Of course what we can do is one thing, but influencing a bubble is another thing.

For bruce, just fucking do something, then take the fucking credit, but talking about what your going to do, before you do it, this is why your always going to be bruce-pussy.


Now for dart, do you think that 'positive mental attitude' books will return??

dartagnan said...

... in the DUMBYA years 2001->2006 everyone voted for the bastard a second round ...

More than 59 million of us didn't.

timothy said...

A culture of optimism creates winners and losers. You don't get anything the fuck done without fools who think they can rise above. Some of them make it, most of them don't.

In a culture of pessimism everyone is equal, because everyone sucks all the time.

Which do you prefer? Probably depends who you are.

dartagnan said...

Now for dart, do you think that 'positive mental attitude' books will return??

I don't think they ever went away, did they? People want to believe this bullshit. Many people NEED to believe it.

"The people would rather believe a comforting lie than an uncomfortable truth." -- DeTocqueville

Bend Naturalist said...

Anonymous dartagnan said...

Serious question: At what point does a MILF morph into a cougar? Or are we talking about two distinct species?

*

Any women over 40 is a MILF ( the cut-off depends on her shape, I have known 80 year old women that can out dance and out-fuck women 1/2 their age, it old depends how they take care of themselves ).

A cougar is a MILF, generally in Bend, that has taken her ex-hubby to the cleaner's, generally she got the farm ( 5 acre mini-ranch ), lives outside of town, and is looking for another EX to fuck, everytime she gets divorced she doubles her bet ( takes 1/2 of his or more ).

Note all MILFS have the ability to become cougars.

There are many good MILFS. After all many women who raise kids, and then the old man dumps them, but they don't become cougars. A good MILF gets a job, and COUGAR hunts for easy prey, a COUGAR doesn't work for a living.

Cougars tend to be RE type women, they're flashy but no substance, generally without education, which is why fucking MEN economically is the only way they can EAT.

A MILF becomes a cougar when her first divorce settlement jack-pot takes place, she gets the cash, the house, he gets the kids. Now the MILF is free to roam the bars ( merenda, marz, ... martini-bar ), in search of young-cock for fun, and old rich geezers to double her bet.

Thanks, for asking dart, its a privilege to share.

p.s. I'm happily married to fine old gal, that has a heart of gold.

dartagnan said...

Timothy, you present a false choice. There is an alternative to both unreasonable pessimism and unreasonable optimism. It is called "realism."

timothy said...

>>Timothy, you present a false choice. There is an alternative to both unreasonable pessimism and unreasonable optimism. It is called "realism."

This idea of "realism" interests me. Do you have a newsletter I can subscribe to?

dartagnan said...

Bend Naturalist, thank you for the enlightenment.

I am reminded of a quote from Zsa Zsa Gabor (one of the famous early cougars): "I am a mah-velous housekeeper, dahling. Every time I divorce a man I keep his house."

Anonymous said...

I don't think they ever went away, did they? People want to believe this bullshit. Many people NEED to believe it.

*

Ok, I have to be honest, I haven't bought a 'self-improvement' book since the 60's, but then there was napoleon-hill, dale-carnegie, ... so many, but they all required hard-work, there was NO easy way to make it.

I don't think a business plan that requires 20 years in order to retire-rich would sell today would it?? Perhaps duncan knows?

I love Tocqueville, but this gets back to what we were discussing several weeks ago from 'babylon', that 98% of humanity is always fucked, ... its always been this way.

There really was essential truth in the old self-improvement books, I simply can't think of anything that I have read in recent years or seen at airports and picked up that wasn't "Tell you what you want to hear".

***

FYI dart, I did use the info in those books and it did take 20 years, but it did make me rich.

I think there are essential truths about working smart, and building secure future.

That said, I also agree with Edison, that Genius is 99% perspiration, and 1% inspiration.

dartagnan said...

Timothy: Sorry, I don't. Realism has never been as hot a seller as optimism.

Anonymous said...

This idea of "realism" interests me. Do you have a newsletter I can subscribe to?

*

Warren Buffet says ...

When optimists are buying SELL, when pessimists are selling, BUY

Warren considers himself a realist, but then his mentor Ben Graham say's "Nobody knows the top or bottom, until its passed".

There are many Buffet news-letters, trouble is for NOW, BUY&HOLD no longer works.

Tim, we should have this debate sometime, I'm not sure if this is the time, but there is that myth that 'buy&hold' is over, and thus all buffet-ology is over.

Regarding newsletters, I always found that the BEST investment you can make is in yourself. Handing fools your money is generally a loser game, Buffett likes to write&talk, but mention graham, but Graham made it very clear the average guy always loses on wall-street, and following the stock-market 24/7 is my idea of hell.

dartagnan said...

There really was essential truth in the old self-improvement books ...

Of course the philosophy is correct insofar as if you don't believe you can achieve something you will never achieve it. Where it has gone wrong is in telling people they can achieve ANYTHING if they believe they can. Our society is so marinated in this bullshit that questioning it is almost considered unAmerican.

timothy said...

>>Tim, we should have this debate sometime, I'm not sure if this is the time, but there is that myth that 'buy&hold' is over, and thus all buffet-ology is over.

I'm all for buy and hold, as long as the buying isn't done at the top (it usually is, thanks to the folly of mankind).

The most fascinating work in economics has been done in the last 25 years in behavioral finance. Some clever experiments have clarified exactly what habitual mistakes people make with money.

The funny (sad?) thing is that most behavioral finance economists say that even KNOWING what mistakes you will make doesn't stop you from making them. No one likes to fight their instincts. So, yeah, investing is, in fact, hell.

My favorite example is anchoring bias. You have people spin a dial with numbers on it. Then you ask them how many countries are in Africa. Guess what, the number they choose is heavily influenced by the number they got when they spun the dial. How funny is that?

timothy said...

One beautiful summer day I sat in a hammock with some beers and every Buffett letter to shareholders.

It was a great day. It's nice that he puts jokes in. What other CEO does that? And they are good jokes.

...older man who crashed his grocery cart into that of a much younger fellow while both were shopping. The elderly man explained apologetically that he had lost track of his wife and was preoccupied searching for her. His new acquaintance said that by coincidence his wife had also wandered off and suggested that it might be more efficient if they jointly looked for the two women. Agreeing, the older man asked his new companion what his wife looked like. "She’s a gorgeous blonde," the fellow answered, "with a body that would cause a bishop to go through a stained glass window, and she’s wearing tight white shorts. How about yours?" The senior citizen wasted no words: "Forget her, we’ll look for yours."

Anonymous said...

Where it has gone wrong is in telling people they can achieve ANYTHING if they believe they can.

*

I see it all the time, when the white hair-lip racist in Bend says "The reason I'm not a brain surgeon, is because of those mexicans, they took my job".

Sort of like in the early 1980's when Mitch Kapor said anyone can become an industry tycoon. - "All you need is a garage, a computer, and $5M".

Dart, so what should people be told? Of course this question is nonsensical, because our government by design wants sheep to show up to work 8-5.

I wanted to get out of the poverty that I saw people living, I knew their had to be a way, and read books, until I found books that I considered the author knew what they were talking about, ...

Are such books published today?? Like I have said earlier, when I look at the genre these days at airports, all I ever see is brown-nose-your-way-up-the-ORG,

my advice to kids for the past 20 years has been, get a government job, PERS, easy-work, and retire at full pay at 55, millionaires don't get that good of a annuity.

timothy said...

Who needs new books? Regarding success and ambition, it's all been said. Napoleon Hill is still on the shelves, and people still tell kids to read it.

MStucker said...

In Q3 of 07 Prescott,Az was #5 @ 63% over valued.
#1 Bend 70%
#2 Atlantic City 64.4%
#3 Madera,Ca 62.3%
#4 Merced,Ca
Las Vegas in not over valued @ 19.4% but is one of the worst crash scenes.
Global Insight consider any market over 36% over valued.
Our crash will come, it's only a matter of time.

signed,
Not a cougar.

LavaBear said...

>>hot a seller as optimism.

Optimist...she is hot. I'd fuck her. But after a bit I'd get tired of hearing how great things are gonna be after we get over this rough patch. Realist...sure I'd fuck her too but when she keeps telling me I shouldn't drink so much she and I are done. For my money I'll marry Pessimist. She's got that dark side that does it for me.

dartagnan said...

Dart, so what should people be told?

Find work that you love, do your best at it, don't take on more debt than you can handle, buy low, sell high, hope for the best but plan for the worst, and remember it's all a crap shoot anyway.

Anonymous said...

bend weekly sets the BULL straight,DUII down not UP as BULL asserts for past two weeks.

***

Feb 05,2008
Super Bowl weekend drunk-driving arrests down, deaths up, for 2008
by Bend Weekly News Sources
small font medium font large font

In comparison with 2007, Oregon State Police troopers reported a decrease in the number of drunk-driving arrests made during Super Bowl weekend this year. 23 drivers were charged with driving under the influence of alcohol, 13 which were arrested after noon on Sunday. Last year, 42 DUII arrests were made.

Troopers also reported an increase in deaths from car crashes with five persons killed in four separate crashes this weekend. Last year, OSP and ODOT said, two persons died and the year before, six persons lost their lives.

Anonymous said...

"It's only a matter of time". Prices are already back to reasonable levels on many listings. It seems it will go even lower for 2008 and maybe into 2009. By the time people figure it's time to buy, my house will probably be 100% paid off.

dartagnan said...

The funny (sad?) thing is that most behavioral finance economists say that even KNOWING what mistakes you will make doesn't stop you from making them.

The assumption of classical economics that people will make rational economic decisions has been pretty well blown to shit, hasn't it? But the conservatives cling to it with the desperation of drowning men.

msfucker said...

Full Study: House Prices in America - Q1 2007
A Global Insight / National City Corporation, June 2007
http://www.globalinsight.com/Highlight/HighlightDetail2350.htm

• House prices have been resilient in the interior West, though we see overvaluation there increasing, making those gains precarious. Bend, Oregon and Prescott, Arizona are now the nation’s most overvalued markets. Alternatively, price gains in Texas seem more firmly based, as valuations there are attractive by historical standards.

dartagnan said...

lavabear: LOL! Funny.

I can picture Optimist as Carrie Underwood and Pessimist as Amy Winehouse. But who is Realist?

LavaBear said...

>>I can picture Optimist as Carrie Underwood and Pessimist as Amy Winehouse. But who is Realist?

Zsa Zsa Gabor?

timothy said...

>>But the conservatives cling to it with the desperation of drowning men.

Meh. The liberals are no better. Very little understanding of reality out there.

MStucker said...

My dog must have eaten that along with my super bowl tickets.
This is where I found the Q3 07 info. http://tiny.cc/GP2p2
click on reports.
Perhaps Prescott was #2 in Q1 07.

msfucker said...

Perhaps Prescott was #2 in Q1 07.

*

Perhaps you should take the time to read about 10,000 of our prior posts.

Anonymous said...

MBIA rating too low to be rated.


Ratings on $2.4 trillion of debt the industry guarantees would be thrown into doubt if the downgrades expand.


Nope, no doubt here amongst us bubble-heads, we have been predicting over $2 Trillion loss for a long time.

*

MBIA's AAA Rating Placed Back Under Review by Fitch (Update2)

By Christine Richard

Feb. 5 (Bloomberg) -- MBIA Inc.'s AAA bond insurance ranking was placed back under review for a downgrade by Fitch Ratings less than a month after being affirmed with a stable outlook.

Fitch, which also put CIFG Financial Guaranty back under review, is updating its assumptions for higher losses on U.S. subprime-mortgage securities, the New York-based ratings company said today in a statement. If loss projections rise materially, the AAA ratings on bond insurers may no longer be appropriate regardless of how much capital they hold, the company said.

Fitch will likely raise the amount of capital it requires, a move that would put ``further downward pressure on the ratings'' of Ambac Assurance Corp., CIFG, Financial Guaranty Insurance Co., MBIA and Security Capital Assurance Ltd., according to the statement. Ratings on $2.4 trillion of debt the industry guarantees would be thrown into doubt if the downgrades expand.

``Right now the AAA ratings for MBIA, Ambac and FGIC simply aren't justified,'' said Janet Tavakoli, president of Chicago- based Tavakoli Structured Finance, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``They simply don't have the capital.''

Fitch has already cut the AAA insurer ratings of New York- based Ambac Financial Group Inc., FGIC Corp., and Security Capital, and they remain under review for further downgrades.

msfucker said...

My dog must have eaten this along with my super bowl tickets.

Anonymous said...

Now the good news.

*

American mortgage meltdown can result in the third world war between Asia and the West - 2012 or later?
Balaji Reddy, India Daily
Feb. 6, 2008

The situation is similar to 1930s. The world is headed for depression led by the American economic meltdown and severe depression from underemployment. Soon America will realize that in a free and fair turf they just cannot compete with Japan, China, and India. Japan likes America because it can dump all its cars and electronics on American consumers. Similar love affair is on the rise between India and America for services and China and America for low-end consumer goods.

The next US President will stop these illegal dumping to protect the nation from total economic meltdown. That will bring severe depression in Asia.

At the same time Asia and the West (Europe and America) will compete for scarce energy and raw materials. It will finally end up in confrontation.

As Asia realizes it has nothing to gain from the West and the West realizes Asia is the biggest nuisance snatching away the scare energy and materials, the seeds of a third world war that got planted with the Iraq war will explode.

It is possible that the third word war will be short and devastating. It may come soon as 2012 or later.

de tocqueville said...

"The people would rather believe a comforting lie than an uncomfortable truth." – DeTocqueville

I believe this is the correct quote:
“It is easier for the world to accept a simple lie than a complex truth."

correcting buster said...

Whoever gave that long-ass description of a cougar is dead-ass wrong.

A "cougar" is slang for an older woman who hunts for younger men. Period.

(from www.urbandictionary.com) An older woman who frequents clubs in order to score with a much younger man. The cougar can be anyone from an overly surgically altered wind tunnel victim, to an absolute sad and bloated old horn-meister, to a real hottie or milf. Cougars are gaining in popularity -- particularly the true hotties -- as young men find not only a sexual high, but many times a chick with her shit together. ("That cougar I met last night, showed me shit I didn't know existed, I'm goin back for more.")

Anonymous said...

Perhaps you should take the time to read about 10,000 of our prior posts.
***
Why are the cranks on this blog the only bloggers who expect people to read every f-ing comment from the beginning of time? Wake up -- not everyone is retired and sitting around on their asses all day.

Where were you guys when the page was blank? I notice only a handful of comments when this blog first started -- everyone here is a newbie in the past 12 months.

more on cougars said...

- A woman in her sexual prime who prefers to hunt rather than be hunted. A cougar's victims are usually under 25, as cougars prefer to mate with men who still have hair.

- Cougars are older and more practiced in the ways of snaring a mate so they will rarely broadcast their intentions to sleep with you until you are already in her Jetta, headed for the condo she just bought. It is this elusive behavior that earns her the name “Cougar.”

- A 35+ year old female who is on the "hunt" for a much younger, energetic, willing-to-do-anything male. The cougar can frequently be seen in a padded bra, cleavage exposed, propped up against a swanky bar in San Francisco (or other cities) waiting, watching, calculating; gearing up to sink her claws into an innocent young and strapping buck who happens to cross her path.

Anonymous said...

The cougar in San Francisco (or other cities) waiting, watching, calculating; gearing up to sink her claws into an innocent young and strapping buck who happens to cross her path.

*

First of all Bend, ain't a fucking city. Our cougars like young cock, which is well known, but they like money even better. The typical Bend cougar is in her late 40's and/or early 50's, and take men, usually developer/builders to the cleaners.

The Bend cougar lives on her ex-hubbys hobby farm, and she takes a young stud out there, until she finds a new hubby to economically cleanse, then she repeats. The typical profile is an un-educated ex-realtor.

Homer wrote a good description a while back, but from the back they look pretty good, flowing long golden blond hair, long legs, and shapely body, but when they turn around you see ... This.

The Bend cougar likes young cock as a play thing, but a Bend cougar lives and preys on men, foolish men that have money.

Anonymous said...

A "cougar" is slang for an older woman who hunts for younger men. Period.

*

Bend is fucking exceptional CUNT.

This is BEND #1, and our cougars are self-breeding here, and we have cougars, that you'll find NO where else.

There are lots of things you'll find in the world, and definitions, that you'll see in the big city like SF, or LA, but here in Bend, Oregon, where a 40+ MILF can write her own ticket, where there is MORE men with money than there is SINGLE pussy, the BEND COUGAR rules the fucking day.

Bend is exceptional, Bend is number 1.

Shit this is too much, we have been using this definition of Bend-Cougar for over a year, and now its getting challenged, challenged by BIG-CITY world class encyclopedias.

All I can say is read closely, read my text, "BEND COUGAR"

Anonymous said...

Wake up -- not everyone is retired and sitting around on their asses all day.

*

Yeh, we know Bend is exceptional, we're all flipping houses and getting rich all day.

Bend is #1, we make our own rules in this town, we're the #1 resort in the USA.


It's a good day for blogger fodder, a very good day indeed.

Anonymous said...

Where were you guys when the page was blank? I notice only a handful of comments when this blog first started -- everyone here is a newbie in the past 12 months.

*

Fucking RIGHT-ON Dude, where the fuck was Homer prior to version 1 of NetScape, nada was he. Just a figment of our imagination he was.

We didn't have a life before Homer, he is our life, he is our leader, but this isn't new information.

It must be a bad day to be a Realtor in Bend, OR.

It must be a bad day to be a builder/developer in Bend, OR.

It must be a really shitty day to be a politician in Bend, OR.


"Where were you guys when the page was blank?"

Where's my fucking BEER? Homer we got to do something about dim blank pages, the newbies don't have enough to read.

happy hour said...

BEND-COUGAR

Short history: Ok, so you know where I'm coming from, and this has been posted before, and HOMER hates redundant posts.

I live at Dechutes Brewpub, I'm always at the bar. I talk to a lot of people, boss-hoggs, and guys that can't find a min-wage job as a finish-carpenter in this town.

I have had dozen's of conversations that go like this "Some young kid has got my farm", I say "WHAT", guy next to me "Yeh, my wife divorced me after I got rich, off my last development, she's bored to hell, I work 18hrs/day", ... I bought ten acres, and put in a pond, a real nice place big house., ... The judge gave it all to her, ... The guy has another sip, then says "this young kid in his 20's is living in my house, fucking my ex-wife, ... and all I got is alimony, child support" ...

I have had this conversation so many times over the years, that last winter I said to myself, there is a pattern here, folks come from all over the USA to get rich in Bend, and their marriage falls apart, the guy is always working, making money, and buys this place out in no-where, so his wife is bored, and starts sleeping around, and falls in love with a young kid, and say's "HEY, live with me and you don't have to work."

Thus the "BEND COUGAR" was born, I have heard this same story, over a dozen times during the last two years at Deschutes. I don't have to make this shit up, these guys are pissed, hurt, and angry.

So now you all know where I'm coming from, and how & why I created the terminology "bend cougar". Typical is a 45 year old woman, getting a 25 year old board-bum to come out and live with her at the farm.

The reason I like this story, is that its a complete fucking picture of the REAL fucking Bend, OR.

Come to this town, and we'll clean your fucking clock, you'll lose your wife, your money, and some kid two steps away from being a meth addict will be fucking your ex-wife, and your daughter, and probably your son. This is BEND, this is the REAL BEND, and this is why the story is essential.

Anonymous said...

A "cougar" is slang for an older woman who hunts for younger men. Period. - mstucker

*

I think you can see from my point of view the bend-cougar is not so much about women, its about what money has done to this town, how get-rich-quick people descended this town, and built siberian tract developments (STD's), and got reamed in the process.

Thus, mstucker, its not about women, its about the place, we call Bend, OR. The story being told, is about the collapse of the Bend-Bubble.

Anonymous said...

Oregon Lumber Prices Lowest Since Early 90's

From the Realtor's Guard:


With no end in sight for the national housing slump, wood products, Lane County’s largest manufacturing sector, is bracing for another difficult year.
“Our mills, they’re just trying to batten down the hatches and withstand (the downturn),” said Butch Bernhardt Jr., spokesman for the Western Wood Products Association, which represents 120 mills in 12 western states.
He said last year’s string of announcements of curtailments and layoffs will continue in ’08.
“And we’ll see some mills close for good,” he predicted. “Which ones? It’s impossible to say. Given the conditions that we’re anticipating and the trends we’ve seen in pricing so far, for some companies, it will be difficult to be competitive in this type of market.”
Lumber prices are at historically low levels, said Jon Anderson, publisher of Random Lengths, a Eugene-based firm that tracks forest products markets in North America.
“We haven’t seen these prices (unadjusted for inflation) since the early ‘90s,” he said, adding that he doesn’t think that prices can go much lower.
“There can’t be very many (producers) that aren’t losing money right now,” Anderson said. “I think we’re going to see a shakeout, if we’re not already in it.” That could include mill closures, as well as consolidation within the industry, he said.
Housing starts nationwide are predicted to be about 1.1 million in 2008 — roughly half their level in 2005, Anderson said.
Housing starts are a measure of new residential construction and an indicator of economic growth, which affects a long chain of businesses from lumber mills to landscapers.

*

How anybody can say the slowdown is isolated to housing is beyond me. The economy builds on itself when it’s getting stronger and it eats away at itself when it’s weakening. Same thing applies to the international aspect.

Anonymous said...

man, I knew I shouldn't have clicked on the link in the comments about cougars. That lady has one big razor clam between her legs.

MStucker said...

OFF Topic (as in Bend Bubble)
Like I said I am not a Cougar. I guess you have and will not have any way of knowing that. You will however continue to have your fun bantering.
Where the hell did you find that grotesque photo. Icky thang.

Anonymous said...

This is BEND, this is the REAL BEND, and this is why the story is essential.
****
Okay dude - you d'oh man. Got it!


***
I shouldn't have clicked on the link in the comments about cougars.
***
Thanks for the heads up (or tails up?). I ain't lookin'.

bruce said...

The cougar shit is rich tonight :)

Homer, I pulled the trigger on the Executive Sessions, so you fucking do something and come to the City Council meeting tomorrow night. You can sit in the back and buy me an Abyss afterwards.

Just sent this e-mail to the entire council, plus Peter Sachs at the BULL and H. Bruce at the SORE, referencing a document that I will post on the Juniper Ridge Info blog shortly:

Dear Councilors,

I wish to bring more transparency to our local government. Your regular use of Executive Sessions is a concern to many of your consituents. Especially as Juniper Ridge morphed from a 500 acre initial project to a 1500 acre project with very little public input. Plus the fiasco that has followed with the selected master developer. This project has led me to come out publically with my Juniper Ridge Info web site and blog.

Attached is an extended version of a document I submitted to the Bulletin for an "In My View" feature. It covers the relevant law and your recent history of the use of Executive Sessions. I believe that your broad usage of Executive Sessions does not comply with the Oregon Open Meetings laws.

I previously approached Mayor Abernethy about this issue, but nothing has changed. So now I am approaching all of you. As it is you personally that have the obligation, undertaken with your Oath of Office, to follow relevant Oregon laws.

For reference to these laws, a succinct overview is found here:
http://www.open-oregon.com/New_Pages/A_Quick_Reference_Guide.shtml

It is with great trepidation that I send this, as I plan to approach you with a green energy plan to burn waste gas at the treatment plant to provide energy and save the City money while reducing greenhouse gases. I do not wish to poison personal relationships and set such a project back.

Yet I believe this issue is so fundamental to excellent governance, and to strengthening the implicit trust that your constituents hold in you, that I must press forward.

I also wish to make a public statement highlighting this issue at the Council Meeting tomorrow night, Wednesday, Feb. 6.

Thank you for your review and consideration,

Bruce Ewert
(address data deleted, look it up f you want it)

www.juniper-ridge-info.blogspot.com
www.juniper-ridge.info

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I eat at Dandys never Wendys

There is innate business genius in having young hotties on rollerskates serve you food in your car.

DAMN! Dandy's got the hotness.

bruce said...

Deschutes County foreclosure records count, year to date:

Request for Notice of Default: 27

Notice of Default and Election to Sell: 112

Something tells me foreclosures are outpacing sales this year.

Anonymous said...

Something tells me foreclosures are outpacing sales this year.

*

Bruce, foreclosures were outpacing sales in Dec 07.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The sharp contraction in services businesses - from financial services to healthcare and lodging – is likely to raise the odds of a US recession in 2008.

What, up from 100%?

Anonymous said...

man, I knew I shouldn't have clicked on the link in the comments about cougars. That lady has one big razor clam between her legs.

*

Oregon Razor clam yes, but Labia Major to this gynecologist.

Like Homer said, Cougars look great from the backside.

Anonymous said...

It is with great trepidation that I send this, as I plan to approach you with a green energy plan to burn waste gas at the treatment plant to provide energy and save the City money while reducing greenhouse gases. I do not wish to poison personal relationships and set such a project back.

*

You forgot to mention the Capstone infinite energy perpetual motion micro turbines.

bruce said...

Re: Bruce, foreclosures were outpacing sales in Dec 07.

It was close, but hard to tell. I've been going through the PDFs to get a hard count for 97701 and 97702 but it's really slow and boring.

What I'm really curious about is seeing the property tax receipts for January in the Budget Detail. That could be telling.

bruce said...

Re: You forgot to mention the Capstone infinite energy perpetual motion micro turbines.

Details will come later. They are not perpetual motion, but they can burn shit-gas. Big difference.

Funny how you think a technology that has well over 16,000,000 hours of documented running time on over 4000 separate installed machines isn't quite real.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

From realtytimes.com, surprisingly:

Homeownership Plunges At Record Rate
by Broderick Perkins

The rate of homeownership is the latest casualty in the nation's economic crunch.

A one-two combination -- a housing hangover and the mortgage meltdown -- dropped the rate of homeownership by its largest ever one-year decline.

The U.S. Census Bureau said compared to one year ago, the fourth quarter 2007 rate of 67.8 percent represents the largest annual decline in the rate of homeownership since the bureau began tracking the rate in 1965.

The West was hit hardest, where the rate was down to 62.7 percent; followed by the Northeast at 64.6 percent; the South at 70 percent; and the Midwest, 71.7 percent.

The national fourth quarter rate is also as low as its been since the first quarter of 2002. The rate of homeownership peaked at 69.2 percent in the second quarter of 2004, but has been edging down ever since.

Tight mortgage money conditions makes it tough to land the mortgage you need to buy a home, but affordability also remains a big factor.

A recent Center for Housing Policy report found that in 2007 home prices declined in more than three quarters of the 201 metro areas it studied. However, police, firemen, teachers and other community workers still can't afford the median priced home in their community.

Some 40 communities have home prices that require more income to buy in 2007, than in 2006. In Birmingham, AL home buyers need 18.95 percent more income to buy a home in 2007 than in 2006, according to the Census.

Unaffordable home prices linger from the last housing boom when home prices skyrocketed, following ever lower interest rates and easy-qualifying mortgages. First timers joined growing numbers of speculators, move-up buyers and second home buyers. A record numbers of buyers created an unprecedented boom in demand.

Not only have homes become unaffordable to buy, they've also become unaffordable to keep as mortgage interest rates reset, creating higher monthly mortgage payments. A higher mortgage bill has more than a million homeowners into foreclosure, a short sale or other form of homeownership termination.

An additional 80,000 homes sat vacant and available for sale nationwide in the fourth quarter 2007, compared to a year earlier. The 2.18 million vacant homes for sale in the fourth quarter matched a record set in early 2007.

With talk of a recession, the trend is for more terminated homeownerships and greater supplies of homes on the market.

That could mean some bargain basement discounts for some buyers. But if your homeownership is in jeopardy, talk to your lender, a financial counselor or other professional advisor who can help you keep your home.

Published: February 5, 2008

Anonymous said...

I plan to approach you with a green energy plan to burn waste gas at the treatment plant to provide energy and save the City money.

*

Wow Bruce, pollacks call this 'pissing in your soup', if your going to do biz with the city of bend, get the money before you piss them off, or at the very least don't, ...

OK, I'll quote my old mentor, ...

"NEVER MIX BUSINESS & POLITICS"

I can only imagine, that after this bunch of buffoons running city-hall goes to prison, you think the next bunch of clowns will be buying Capstone perpetual motion micro turbines that run on shit-fumes from you wholesale direct plus ten percent.

Some other people might even think that mixing business with politics is a form of extortion.

Do one or the other, but never both, and they wonder why we call him Bruce-Pussy.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Funny how you think a technology that has well over 16,000,000 hours of documented running time on over 4000 separate installed machines isn't quite real.

Busters personal Viagra-making machines?

:-)

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Lease-Option Should Specify Terms of the Sale

by Bob Hunt

Lease-options are back in vogue. And that is just fine as long as the optionor (owner) and the optionee (tenant) take care to be clear about exactly what they intend with the option. "I'll rent your house now, and I get a chance to buy it later on," isn't quite enough.

This subject has been addressed here before, but it is important enough to warrant further attention. Anyone who doesn't think so should pay attention to a recent case from California's Fourth Appellate District (Sunil Patel v. Morris Liebermensch et al.).

In July of 2003, Sunil Patel and his wife rented a condominium from Morris Liebermensch. The parties also agreed that Patel would have an option to buy the unit. Liebermensch drew up a document that said, "Through the end of the year 2003, the selling price is $290,000. The selling price increases by 3 percent through the end of the year 2004 and cancels with expiration of your occupancy. Should the option to buy be exercised, $1,200.00 [the amount of the security deposit] shall be refunded to you."

In July of 2004, Patel notified Liebermensch of his desire to exercise the option at a price of $298,700 according to the terms to which they had agreed. Liebermensch responded by drafting a purchase agreement requiring that a 10 percent deposit would be placed in a specified escrow company, that the sale would be "as is," and that the escrow period would be 90 to 120 days. The lengthy escrow was needed so that Liebermensch would have time to accomplish a tax-deferred exchange.

Patel countered to some of the terms proposed. After the "as is" provision, he added language that would enable him to cancel "if not fully satisfied." He further indicated that if the escrow were to be more than 30 days, the deposit would only be $5,000. Also, if the escrow had to be more than 30 days, Liebermensch was to bear all escrow expenses.

Liebermensch did not accept Patel's changes. Negotiations ensued, but eventually broke down. They could not come to an agreement on the terms. In November of 2004, Patel filed a lawsuit seeking specific performance.

A jury found (a) that the two had entered into an option agreement giving Patel the right to purchase the property, and (b) that the terms of the option contract were "sufficiently clear to enable the parties to carry out the objective of the contract." The trial court then ordered that the contract be performed with escrow closing no later than 60 days. Liebermensch appealed.

The appellate court noted that, "To be enforceable, an option contract must contain all the material terms that would be contained in the ultimate contract of sale … . These essential contract terms include (1) the parties, (2) the term of the option, (3) the identity of the property and (4) the price and method of payment." "In addition, any other terms that are intended to be included within the bilateral purchase contract … must be included within the terms of the option." [my emphasis] The idea is, when the option is exercised, there should be nothing further to negotiate about.

Now, the court also acknowledged that sometimes terms, such as the time of payment, might be left out, but the contract could still be enforced "because the law implies a reasonable time." However, it went on to emphasize that, if there is uncertainty about some term of a contract, and "the uncertainty relates to a matter that is so important to the contract that the court cannot determine what the parties intended," then courts will refuse to enforce the uncertain agreement.

In the Patel case, there was never any agreement about the time of payment (length of escrow), and, for the parties, that was a crucial issue. They never had reached a complete agreement; hence the option contract could not be enforced. The appellate court reversed the judgment of the trial court.

There's a moral to this story, one that we have heard before. If you are going to create an option to buy, it is a good idea to draft a completed purchase agreement (though undated and unsigned) as an exhibit that will clearly specify what the terms of the potential sale will be.

Published: January 25, 2008

Anonymous said...

The West was hit hardest, where the rate was down to 62.7 percent; followed by the Northeast at 64.6 percent; the South at 70 percent; and the Midwest, 71.7 percent.

*

Homer, good post, want to place bets?

My assumption all along is that once this plays out and minoritys, and poor get fucked, and Oprah says "Homeownership is Slavery", that it will fall below 50%. What is your guess?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Plan to Boost Canada's Housing Affordability Would Take 10 Years
by Jim Adair

Canada has enjoyed a surging real estate market for almost a decade, with record home sales and appreciating prices. But the Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM) warns that "finding adequate housing (is) becoming an issue even for the so-called middle class and chronic, systemic homelessness continues in Canada's urban areas."

"Too many Canadians are forced to choose between food and rent, clothes for the kids or making the mortgage payment," says Sam Sullivan, mayor of Vancouver and co-chair of the FCM Big City Mayors' Caucus. "The high cost of housing also undermines the ability of people who want to get ahead but cannot afford a secure and decent place to live."

In a study of housing and homelessness from 2001 to 2006 in 22 large and medium-sized urban centres, FCM found that house prices outpaced income growth, "even for couples and two-parent families.

"Income growth was far slower among lone-parent families and single people, who faced serious and growing barriers to affordable home ownership," says FCM.

Recently Statistics Canada released a report called, The Dynamics of Housing Affordability. It profiles people who are spending 30 per cent or more of their household income on shelter (rent or mortgage payments, property taxes, condominium fees and utility payments). "The 30 per cent level is commonly accepted as the upper limit for affordable housing," says the report.

It found that 20 per cent of Canadians live in households that spend above the affordability benchmark for shelter in any single year. During the three years of the study, 28 per cent reported exceeding the benchmark at some point.

"The attributes associated with the highest probability of exceeding the benchmark were: living alone, being a female lone parent; renting; being an immigrant; or living in Vancouver or Toronto," says the Statistics Canada report.

Those who experienced some kind of transition, such as changing from owner to renter or vice versa, or those who got married or divorced, were also most likely to move above or below the affordability benchmark.

Homelessness is also a growing issue, says FCM. "In 2006, even small and suburban communities ... required emergency shelters," with close to 20,000 permanent shelter beds across the 22 communities studied, it says.

The federation has come up with an Action Plan to address the problem. It calls on the federal government to make a renewed funding commitment to housing, because the current federal housing fund program will expire in March 2009.

The FCM says chronic homelessness could be eliminated in 10 years if 20,000 new transitional, supportive and permanent affordable housing units are made available, along with support for underlying issues such as mental health and addiction.

It says the stock of affordable non-market housing must expand by 15 per cent of the total annual housing starts per year. The FCM says this is an estimated 25,000 to 30,000 units per year, which could include new construction and acquisition and preservation of existing market units.

The third FCM recommendation is that an existing backlog in core housing need be reduced by 25 per cent over 10 years, which amounts to 35,000 households per year. It also calls for Canada's existing housing stock to be preserved and modernized at the rate of 20,000 units per year, and that existing subsidies be renewed.

Finally, the FCM says the Residential Rehabilitation Assistance Program, which provides homeowners and landlords with funds to help maintain their homes, should be extended and revised to rehabilitate 10,000 homes a year.

How much will all this cost? The FCM says it will be $3.35 billion a year, to be shared by all levels of government.

"However, this is not new money," says the report. "Much of this is already being invested and is scheduled to end in 2009." It says renewing current programs would raise $2 billion over two years, and most of those funds are matched by the provinces and territories. "This can be augmented by reinvesting spending from expiring social-housing operating agreements (federal expenditures are currently $100 million annually and would rise gradually over the next 10 years to $500 million annually)" and would also be matched by the provinces.

The FCM says the figures don't include revenues generated by the housing market activity, which it estimates to be more than $500 million in tax revenue for the federal government and $175 million for the provincial and territorial governments.

"There is no choice. The federal government must put an end to the chronic uncertainty around affordable housing in this country and play a strong leadership role by committing to a long-term strategy," says FCM President Gord Steeves. "We are proposing an ambitious but realistic plan to address the most pressing problems."

Published: February 5, 2008

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Homer, good post, want to place bets?

OK, I'll bet home ownership rates go lower.

BAM!

What's the spread?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And notice the inverse correlation between how expensive a region is, and it's home ownership. Midwest ranks highest in ownership... West is the lowest.

Anonymous said...

Funny how you think a technology that has well over 16,000,000 hours of documented running time on over 4000 separate installed machines isn't quite real.

*

Did anyone 'EVER' say it wasn't real??

We have to give you credit, like the every-ready bunny, your always selling Capstone.

Note, heed my comment, albeit you think your being cute, erudite, and or suave.

Never, mix business and politics.

Anonymous said...

Midwest ranks highest in ownership... West is the lowest.


*

Ya, I saw that I didn't realize that anywhere exceeded 70%.

That said, its all about income-multiples, back in the 80's you could buy Bend RE for 1X of yearly income, and then in 2005 it was up to 20X.

I'm sure in the midwest you can still buy a home for 2X or 3X of annual income. So, hell yes, its better than renting. But here in Bend, its a fools game to BUY, unless you can get a home for less than 4X of income.

Like I said, once Oprah tells her flock they're being fucked, homeownership will drop like a rock in the sun-belt.

People every where are walking away, they bought a home as a lottery ticket, and they know its not going to pay, the midwest is going want to secede from the sun-belt if they get the bill. This could be the start of a new civil war.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Homer, good post, want to place bets?

I will bet that the housing bubble puts homeownership OUT OF REACH of more people than any other event, ever. And it sure as hell won't be price, which will fall hard... it'll be wrecked credit ratings. And lowering rates won't do shit. These people will not get loans AT ANY RATE for 10 years.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

the housing bubble puts homeownership OUT OF REACH of more people than any other event, ever...

THIS is what I mean when I say people will WISH this Bubble had never happened. There'll be a good number of Realtors that go into the poorhouse because of this, lose their houses, everything.

Of course, WHILE it was happening, I took far more than my share of abuse that:

1) There was No Bubble
2) I was a raving lunatic (that part is true)
3) Bend is different, and hence immune from any Bubble that might be occuring, of which there was none.
4) Shut up, EVERYTHING'S FINE.

Anonymous said...

Details will come later. They are not perpetual motion, but they can burn shit-gas. Big difference.

*

if they love shit, then we love them

a perpetual fart machine , with an attitudinal difference

doesn't our city-hall already generate toilet gas?? I thought abernethy, and friedman were already full of shit??

no shortage of shit in bend, we're already for the next bubble, the alt-energy bubble ( Eric Janszen )

maybe when friedman is in jail, you can put a capstone up his ass and make power??

bruce said...

Re: Never mix business and politics.

Unfortunately they are inextricably linked, especially in our little city. See Hollern, Mike.

Yes, I could be a quiet Anonymouse, but that doesn't get shit done, other than the twelve of us that comment in this blog pissing on each other. I knew I was taking a chance in setting up the blog, and I know I am taking a chance on this move.

It needs to be done. It won't make or break me financially, although it could hurt a little. But somebody has to take a stand, damn it.

And not too many here seem to be willing to do so. So be it.

I'm off to read my wife to sleep...tomorrow is another day.

Anonymous said...

the housing bubble puts homeownership OUT OF REACH of more people than any other event, ever...

*

I hate to be devils advocate, but we could make the same argument about credit cards, "Defaults put credit out of reach, ..." 18% APR is what makes American Great, ...

The problem is too many houses, and they ran out of suckers, and thus they marketed & PR'd ( city of bend ) to the weakest members of society, who bought a crap-shack ( 2004-2006 ) with the idea of winning the lottery. These people didn't need this shit.

Home-owner ship is not the be all for all people, and certainly not the working poor, who need to be mobile, by definition.

Most Bend housing was built to be sold to the dumb, the poor, the stupid, and the un-educated. They over-sold, soon even hicks will know that 'homeowner-ship' is a fool's game.

We used to talk of the BBQ's where people would only talk of RE, now those BBQ's are gone. Now people will be bragging that they're a renter with no debt, and no worry about 'owning' a falling-knife.

Anonymous said...

the housing bubble puts homeownership OUT OF REACH of more people than any other event, ever...

*

Every person that can't reach for the falling knife, is one less person for the city of bend to fleece.

Anonymous said...

Re: Never mix business and politics.

Unfortunately they are inextricably linked, especially in our little city. See Hollern, Mike.

*

NO, bruce you linked them, and that was a stupid move, as an old business man, I can tell you it was a very STUPID move.

You can't have it both ways, to eliminate secrecy, but then say by the way, if you buy a few perpetual-motion machines, I'll back off, because that's what it sounds like,

What worse is your trying to get press coverage to ask rhetorically, what does he mean by a machine that runs on shit?? You don't give a fuck about Bend, your simply a self promoter. Which is why your our bruce pussy.

No bruce, YOU linked business & politics, you didn't have to issue your press-release threat, and toss in Capstone in the same letter, but you did, and you did it because your a 24/7 flim-flam promoter. Your type is incapable of doing one thing at a time, or better said, there is only one goal in all of this, selling Capstone,..


Even a few months ago MT-B was talking about using Capstone to generate electricity from snow-melt.

Don't mix business & politics, cuz eventually your going to get hit with a complaint when the pendulum turns, and it always does.


I have never in my life seen so much stupid self centered promotion, that it is so fucking obvious, that said, this is Bend, a town of two bit hustlers.

Have a good night and sleep well.

Anonymous said...

INNof7thMTN vs Friedman Bend MAYOR, just keeps getting more weird.

***

Recent Legal News as of January 26, 2008
January 28th, 2008

RECENT LEGAL NEWS

Friday, January 25, 2008 – This week the disputed AUO board controlled by the Papés and INNspired attempted to file a temporary restraining order on all members of the new board that were elected on December 31, 2008. Amongst other demands, the Papés and INNspired attempted to ban the new boards constitutional rights to free speech and assembly. Lawyers for the Papés and INNspired quickly retreated in court while the judge considered the motion at 9:30 a.m.

In the spirit of compromise, the newly elected board offered to (1) refrain from using the trade name Inn of the Seventh Mountain in relation to its popular web site and (2) letting all members know at meetings that there is a dispute that is presently being litigated as to which Board is the official and legitimate Board of the AUO. Any action taken by this group is not the official action of the AUO board until this question is resolved. However, if we are determined by the court to be the proper Board, then any actions taken will become the official action of the AUO.

In return, the disputed INNspired controlled board, agreed to produce all information requested in our earlier subpoena including all AUO records.

The newly elected board reiterated that they have not solicited the payment of any monthly dues, directly or indirectly to them, and will not do so until such time as a preliminary injunction hearing can be held. The newly elected board policy issued last week is to continue making all payments to Cascade Bookkeeping.

We expect the justice system to look into the issues in more detail at a preliminary injunction hearing in the end of February.

Please find links for legal documents at the website: http://innowners.com/

observer said...

...and they ran out of suckers, and thus they marketed & PR'd ( city of bend ) to the weakest members of society...
***

Did your Hollern, et al, take a page book out of Rashnishi's plan to build his spiritual village (of idiots) out at the Big Muddy in East Texas back in teh 80s? At one point the group of devotees was bussing in homeless people from as far as Atlanta to build up the population for political reasons. Now Bend has attracted the poor and vulnerable to sell them crap shacks. Not much difference really. Hollern sounds like Bend's guru for the brainwashed.

observer said...

oop .. I meant out in East Oregon!

former Bendite said...

Speaking of STDs ... back when I lived in Bend in the late 60s I was in grade school. I went to a school on the east side just south of Pilot Butte. One day they bussed us to another grade school for a program. On the way we drove through a development filled with cookie cutters, no yards, and no trees. Even as a kid of 9 years old, I was completely depressed by the thought of living in such a place. And I just lived in a modest house on Burnside, but it had a yard and trees and all the houses were all different.

Does anyone who lived in Bend back then know which area of town this was? It had to have been one of the first housing developments in Bend.

Ever since then, I've been depressed by developments and do not understand how anyone can be happy in such a place.

Anonymous said...

Now Bend has attracted the poor and vulnerable to sell them crap shacks. Not much difference really.

*

Our BULL ( our press ) recently announced last week we have 5,000 homeless, aka folks living in their cars, not bad for a seasonal population averaging 60k, my guess is its 1 in 10. Fasting growing influx.

If we have 5,000 homeless in the dead of that nastiest winters in a decade, then certainly we have 10k during the summer 'tourist/golf' season.

You have to sell them, and this is what the federal government is for, to bail out the rich. If FEMA can buy trailers, then FEMA can give houses to our homeless.

The way it works is FEMA buys the crap-shacks, tens of thousands from HOLLERN for full-ask price, and then in a few years, HOLLERN buys them back for ten cents on the dollar, this is how federal spending operates, its win-win for all.

timothy said...

I lived in the midwest and all it took to get a house was time. You could have a whole family of 2nd and 3rd generation Italians making pizza and they could all have houses. Parents threw in a $5000 down and then buying was cheap. In the 90s my parents had a 3/4 acres house two story plus basement and attic. Huge. Beautiful. $90,000. In a mediocre neighborhood, $40k.

Still, all the ambitious kiddies (coming out of the dozens and dozens of great universities in the midwest) just looking to get the hell out of there and move somewhere expensive. No one wants to watch the rust belt rust. You have not seen depressing until you see a city that's trying to raise enough money to tear down abandoned sections of town. The people who stay haven't even ever left their damned county. NOT cosmopolitan.

So for someone who can stand living there, it's perfect. Slow Joe and Jill can buy a kick-ass house for almost nothing and live their dull-ass lives in reasonable comfort, making sandwiches and watching TV.

In contrast, I also lived in the South. The cities are very Cosmopolitan there, with all kinds of interesting Northerners, foreigners, and the best Southerners. Just a bit more expensive, but a hell of a lot more fun and optimistic. But good lord stay out of the small towns.

In contrast to the midwest and south, the west is uptight. People wound up, often dissatisfied. Not surprising, because they are often here because they are restless and ambitious. Then they get here and they don't understand why they are going broke because back home you don't grow broke so fast. You make $75,000 in the West and you think, fuck, am I rich or what? But you aren't. Because $75,000 back east in a cheap place is crazy money. Here it's a trap because you start spending like you were rich. People don't fucking spend in the midwest. There aren't two SUV's in the driveway. You don't have a speedboat. You have some crazy-ass pontoon boat built out of oil drums and astroturf that you bought from a crazy uncle for $400. You rent skis when you go to upstate NY. You rent a camper when you go camping. You don't buy everything you see, because the midwest is full of cheap-ass skinflint families who have felt like they were broke since 1929. And because they raised families of 6 kids working at the steel or tire or roller bearing factory.

Anonymous said...

Now Bend has attracted the poor and vulnerable to sell them crap shacks. Not much difference really. Hollern sounds like Bend's guru for the brainwashed.

*

Well it would be fun to compare. The Bagwa ( rajaneesh ) liked hot babe, machine-guns, and rolls-royces. He had his own town in the early 1980's. Today HOLLERN has all kinds of STD's near MADRAS, that are all sitting empty. HOLLERN wouldn't have to buy the homeless in from PDX like the Bagwa did because they're already all over central-oregon.

The bagwa made his bucks by people giving up all their money in exchange for living in his commune and having infinite food, pussy, and shelter, and spiritual fulfillment.

The HOLLERN made his bucks by selling get-rich quick cali-morons crap-shacks, that cost him next to nothing because the city-of-bend deferred SDC's ( sewer,water,storm ). Hollern's flock live in places like NWXC, which are STD's built on old grave-yards, e.g. town fringe dump.

The people who followed the bagwa, had a great time, the people who followed the HOLLERN got to live in a dismal crap-shack. The value added to the people is not comparable. In both cases those that gave their money to either party ended up with nothing, but at least those that gave their money to the Bagwa, had a hell of a good time.

The dismal life of those living in a HOLLERN-VILLE ( like hoover-ville ), crap shack is too depressing to speak of, I'll not mention those words in this forum.

The bagwa renamed the town of Antelope, OR into 'ranjaneesh-puram', the HOLLERN left the town of Bend intact, but ran every element, person, and city-council, city-staff member. The town of Antelope had NO wealth to speak of all wealth was brought in by the Bagwa and his flock.

In Bend, HOLLERN robbed the city of Bend to the point of bankruptcy and beyond, by having the city pay for SDC's for all his crap-shacks which he built by the ten's of thousands in Central Oregon and near Bend, OR.

The people who bought the HOLLERN crap-shack's paid nothing down, thus no real money was brought to the table in the HOLLERN CULT.

The Bagwa called the area "rajaneesh-puram", HOLLERN called it "BROOKS RESOURCE".

The greatest similarity is how one man can destroy a region, and the lives of ten's of thousands of people.


The Bagwa turned the police force into his own private army, in Bend HOLLERN turned the police force into HOA enforcement to destroy pets, and anything else that kept away tourists, e.g. prospective STD purchasers.

Homer, in the early 1980's playboy magazine rated 'rajaneesh' the sexiest cult in America. No shit, hot women, lightly dressed, and everybody could fuck night & day. The price of admission was only your net worth, in the day I think it averaged $75k for entry, many people took out loans just to get in, and then would go back and work once in awhile. As in Bend there were very few 'rich'.

timothy said...

>>Homer, in the early 1980's playboy magazine rated 'rajaneesh' the sexiest cult in America. No shit, hot women, lightly dressed, and everybody could fuck night & day.

True. My aunt & uncle got a Seattle downtown house on the cheap because it was a rajaneesh house. It was busted and sex-stained. Literally sex stains on the WALLS!?!

Took them months to clean it right.

Anonymous said...

Literally sex stains on the WALLS!?!

*

Too bad that HOLLERN-VILLE had no such fun, living in STD's people just wasted away in depression.

In the day rajaneesh was hot and fun, nobody ever used those two words to describe hollern-ville.

Timmy, the outcome will be the same, many people in hollern-ville, will blow their brains out, and the walls covered with brain matter, and folks will buy the shit for cheap, and it will take months to get rid of the 'smell of death'.

Anonymous said...

Unfortunately they are inextricably linked, especially in our little city. - brucey

*

NO, bruce you linked them, and that was a stupid move, as an old business man, I can tell you it was a very STUPID move.

You can't have it both ways, to eliminate secrecy, but then say by the way, if you buy a few perpetual-motion machines, I'll back off, because that's what it sounds like,

What worse is your trying to get press coverage to ask rhetorically, what does he mean by a machine that runs on shit?? You don't give a fuck about Bend, your simply a self promoter. Which is why your our bruce pussy.

No bruce, YOU linked business & politics, you didn't have to issue your press-release threat, and toss in Capstone in the same letter, but you did, and you did it because your a 24/7 flim-flam promoter. Your type is incapable of doing one thing at a time, or better said, there is only one goal in all of this, selling Capstone,..


Even a few months ago MT-B was talking about using Capstone to generate electricity from snow-melt.

Don't mix business & politics, cuz eventually your going to get hit with a complaint when the pendulum turns, and it always does.


I have never in my life seen so much stupid self centered promotion, that is so fucking obvious, that said, this is Bend, a town of two bit hustlers.

Bruce your so Bend, you should run for public office.

Anonymous said...

Bend Chamber of Commerce, Tourism, and MT-B at FUCKING WAR, WWIII has started.

***
Too much has been written about how fucked MT-B, but now the tourists are even pissed, and they're NOT coming back. The end is near.
***

At Mt. Bachelor, mixed reviews
Bend Chamber chairman voices concerns; others say everything's OK

By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin
Published: February 06. 2008 4:00AM PST

The chairman of the Bend Chamber of Commerce board of directors fears the region’s economy could suffer from customer dissatisfaction with Mt. Bachelor ski area.

David Rosell expressed his concerns in a letter he wrote in the February issue of the chamber’s Business Journal. His letter was triggered by the Dec. 31 shutdown of the Sunrise Express chairlift during the busy Christmas-to-New Year’s holiday period.

Rosell wrote that the incident caused “inexcusable mayhem and confusion at the ski area. I observed the anger expressed by countless tourists visiting Central Oregon with their families.”

In an interview, Rosell said, “I … thought to myself, ‘Here are 150 tourists who will never come back to Mt. Bachelor,’ The last few years, I’ve noticed service disruptions, but this is the first year I’ve thought about it in negative economic terms.”
On the Web

Read David Rosell’s letter, “Mt. Bachelor — A Slippery Slope for our Local Economy”

Rosell, who became chairman on Jan. 1, is concerned that negative feelings about Mt. Bachelor could result from such disruptions and damage Central Oregon’s $498 million-a-year tourism industry, including the restaurants, hotels, and ski and snowboard shops that rely on the mountain for visitors, he said in the letter and interview.

“I am writing this to express true concern for both the mountain (that) my family and I love so much as well as for our local economy, which we at the Bend Chamber are so dedicated to enhancing,” he wrote.

The chamber has more than 1,550 members.

The New Year’s Eve snafu was the first real problem this year for Mt. Bachelor, which has revamped its lift and maintenance operations this season and re-engineered its key Pine Marten chairlift in January, said Matt Janney, president and general manager of the ski area.

Janney took over leadership of the ski area in July and promised then to address all aspects of its operations, including lift operations, customer service and the overall skiing and riding experience.

“We had our challenges on the 31st,” Janney acknowledged Tuesday. “Sometimes it takes something like that to see how the team will react.”

Mt. Bachelor has been getting more positive feedback on a daily basis since the New Year’s chairlift shutdown, he said.

“We’re working diligently to make changes,” Janney said. “Obviously our number one priority is to address that and open up lines of communication with the community. I think we’ve made great leaps in the last several months.”

Rosell’s complaints in the chamber newsletter were not reflective of most downtown business owners, said Chuck Arnold, executive director of the Bend Downtowners Association.

“It’s a changing industry and they’re an easy target,” Arnold said. “Bend has changed, and it’s not necessarily going to be the same mountain.”

Mt. Bachelor, which is owned by Park City, Utah-based Powdr Corp., had its second best season ever in 2005-06 with approximately 590,000 visitors. Visitor counts dropped about 10 percent in 2006-07, according to the Pacific Northwest Ski Areas Association.

This year’s totals are behind last year’s pace, mainly due to a slow start to the season due to late-arriving storms, a national economic slowdown and several weekends of heavy snowfall that have hindered travel, Janney said.

Doug LaPlaca, president and CEO of the Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau, agreed that Mt. Bachelor plays a pivotal role in Bend’s tourism industry.

“The importance of Mt. Bachelor to Bend is significant,” LaPlaca said. “It’s the primary winter draw for tourists. Their ongoing success is critically important to the health of Bend’s tourism industry.”

Some longtime skiers and snowboarders also have criticized Mt. Bachelor for raising prices the past two seasons. Season pass prices went from $699, where they had been since Powdr Corp. bought the ski area in 2001, to $829 in 2006-07, a 19 percent increase.

This season, pass prices increased another 12 percent to $929. Daily lift ticket prices also have gone up the past two years. Janney said in an interview last year that the increases were necessary to cover rising expenses.

Matt Gadow, a longtime passholder at Mt. Bachelor, said the combination of lift breakdowns and pass price increases has caused some resentment among locals.

Xinhua, Dai Qingming “It’s the worst communication I’ve seen at any ski resort,” Gadow said. “I bit my tongue for a good, solid two months this year because I heard Matt Janney was a local, but I haven’t seen anything different.”

Gadow’s biggest complaint, frequent lift stoppages, is something that the ski area is working to improve, Janney said.

“We’re doing a lot of things up here,” he said. “I’d like people to know broadly that we are listening to them and making changes.”

Mt. Bachelor has had only one complaint this year — for the New Year’s Eve lift shutdown — fewer than in previous years, said Phil Cruz, Bend-Fort Rock District ranger for the U.S. Forest Service, which leases land in the Deschutes National Forest to the ski area.

“I’m really pleased with how things are going this year,” Cruz said. “We’re not getting anywhere near the number of concerns or comments about things not working.”

Cruz heard about the New Year’s incident and said the ski area is continuing to improve its maintenance record and equipment operation.

The Forest Service approved the ski area’s pass price increases and is charged with ensuring the mountain is safe and affordable for the general public.

“I’m disappointed in the chamber letter because it doesn’t tell both sides of the story,” Cruz said. “Matt’s arrival has made for a really nice revival of the mountain and given us a new look at the needs of the mountain. You can’t fix anything that big overnight.”

The Forest Service is working with Mt. Bachelor in the first six months of a 1 1/2- to two-year master planning process that could ultimately result in more investment at the mountain, Cruz said. The master plan would be a three- to 15-year vision of how the resort would be developed in the future.

Ultimately, the process could result in new hiking and mountain bike trails, new chairlifts, remodeled buildings and better employee break rooms, he said.

Anonymous said...

Xinhua, Dai Qingming “It’s the worst communication I’ve seen at any ski resort,” Gadow said. “I bit my tongue for a good, solid two months this year because I heard Matt Janney was a local, but I haven’t seen anything different.”

*

.XINHUA is biggest newspaper in China, and all our PR&MARKETING dollars in Bend are NOW being spent wining&dining chinese to come to this whore house we call Bend.

The Chinese are NOW pissed, they don't have to put up with SHIT and be lied to, there are too many resorts that will tell the truth.

XINHUA must save face, only the richest people in China can travel, if XINUA prints a positive story about Bend, and a Chinese family takes their once in a lifetime vacation here, and the new gets back to CHINA that Bend SUCKS, and that things don't work, ... Then XINHUA writer loses face.

Most likely as fucking always with VCB/DVA that Dai Qingming was promised all kinds of shit, because Bend PR is ran by professional liars. China don't need this shit, they don't need Bend, and Bend is so used to looking at people in the face and saying this isn't SHIT this is GOLD.

Hey Bend, its SHIT, and the rest of the world isn't buying Your PR&MARKETING.

Powdrz has fucked MT-B in the ass fucking bad, I have written so much I'll not mention here.

Why the fuck does Chamber keep mentioning the $498M tourist money, its been constant for years, why is everybody lying?? The Chinese are GONE, NOT coming back.

XINHUA is the fucking news in China, I used to live there, and these folks are pissed, and Bend is FUCKED.

SO what will Bend do?? Keep throwing PR&Marketing money into China, even though they're fucked.


xie-xie, zai-jian,

Anonymous said...

I'm going to date myself here, but I've been skiing at Mt. Bachelor since 1977. Back then an adult day ticket was $12 and a child day ticket was $9. I consider Mt. Bachelor home and I am happy I'm able to give my 7 year old daughter the same skiing opportunities I had growing up on my home mountain.

I’ve got to say though that I’m extremely disappointed with the season pass price increases. First of all what’s up with a youth's 10-day pass costing more than a youth season pass? Just curious! Also $929, for an adult season pass if you buy before Oct 1st, even after the sharp decline in customer service on the mountain over the past couple of years.

Since Powder Corp. took ownership a few years back the quality of Mt Bachelor has been in steep decline. The brand new lifts break down frequently; the ticket turn-stiles don’t function half of the time; the lift attendants don’t pay close enough attention to safety; the food is horrible (an expensive hamburger that tastes like cardboard and is put together with the cheapest quality ingredients Mt. Bachelor can buy); the runs aren’t groomed at the level they were during Mt. Bachelor’s great days; and finally the parking lot is not plowed when you arrive in the morning to ski.

Maybe I was just spoiled all of those grand years skiing on a great, well maintained mountain BPC (before Powder Corp.). I just find it interesting that Mt. Bachelor is asking us to fork over even more money when we continue to see declines in the quality of Mt. Bachelor’s services. They have not proved to me that by increasing their fees they are going to increase our customer service. So far it has proved to be the opposite.

Because I still love skiing and I want to see if Matt Janney will be able to return Mt Bachelor’s great image and high quality services, I will be paying the increased fees for season passes for my daughter and me. I know Matt Janney remembers the good old days and wants Mt. Bachelor to be a high class skiing destination. I guess all I can do at this point is have faith that he can do that.

Anonymous said...

At Mt. Bachelor, mixed reviews
Bend Chamber chairman voices concerns; others say everything's OK


*

Remember this winter the city spent $250K, on promoting MT-B as a winter paradise on PDX TV, ... for what?

MT-B can't deliver, all the money goes into PR, but nothing into the beef.

WHY, because Powdrz is real-estate company, they bought MT-B to build condos up there, and down at the old bus-station on Simpson.

Powdrz doesn't care a rats ass about putting GOOD-MONEY into the MTN, they only cared about building condos', with RE implosion, that investment is NOW fucked, and thus MT-B is fucked,

Trouble is there is a dis-connect the city spends $250k promoting the MTN PR, but the MTN doesn't deliver a product.

All the fucking PR in the world doesn't SELL a fucked product.

Bend is so fucked up.

PR/MARKETING creates a 'NEED', so people go to MT-B ONCE, and that's IT, after that its NEVER-AGAIN, which means you always got to be bringing in new suckers, which means always more marketing & pr, and endless of cycle.

In Bend everything is about turning SHIT into GOLD.

Even Bruce pussy has convinced city-hall he can turn fart's into energy.

timothy said...

>>This season, pass prices increased another 12 percent to $929.

12 percent in one year? That's an increase a health care insurance company would salivate over.

Anonymous said...

...in the early 1980's playboy magazine rated 'rajaneesh' the sexiest cult in America...
***
wow many people here know a lot about a lot of obscure stuff.

Anonymous said...

In contrast to the midwest and south, the west is uptight.

***
you're exactly right! when I lived in Seattle people were quite uptight. They are loose as hell in austin.

I've also noticed that in the western small towns people's main question is: "what do you do for work?" it's like there are only so many jobs to go around and making a living is always on people's minds. I haven't noticed that so much in the east and southeast. But maybe it's a small-town thing everywhere.

btw, texas didn't let people buy houses with nothin' down. Austin RE is still strong.

Anonymous said...

...in the early 1980's playboy magazine rated 'rajaneesh' the sexiest cult in America...
***
wow many people here know a lot about a lot of obscure stuff.

*
This wasn't obscure in the 1980's in Oregon, it was the news. Also at that time, playboy had some of the best editorial in the country.

It's unbelievable that lack of knowledge of Oregon history 25 years ago.

LavaBear said...

wow many people here know a lot about a lot of obscure stuff.
***

It sure wasn't obscure when you'd goto Wagner's and see robe wearing folks shopping for groceries. Or you'd see a Rolls Royce roll by in town. Or the town of Antelope had it's name changed to City of Ragneesh. Or 700+ people came down with salmonella poisoning in The Dalles. It was an everyday deal around here in the early 80's.

timothy said...

>>It's unbelievable that lack of knowledge of Oregon history 25 years ago.

Why? Oregon is hardly a player on the national scene. Until I visited, I thought it was uninhabited. Except along I-5, I wasn't too far wrong.

People can't even pronounce Oregon correctly where I come from. Or Eugene. Or Willamette. Or even butte.

Salem is in Massachusetts. Detroit in in Michigan. Sweet Home is in Alabama. Oakridge is populated with boys. Arlington is in Texas or Virginia, Redmond is where Microsoft is. Newport is in Rhode Island. Charleston is in WV or SC. Toledo and Dayton are in Ohio. Milwaukie made beer famous, and you spelled it wrong. Albany is in New York. Harrisburg is in Pennsylvania. They hunted down witches in Salem. Waterloo was the downfall of Napoleon. And Donald Duck is for kids not a football team.

Nobody knows shit about Oregon except for about 1/20 of you natives, and there are hardly any of you in the first place. Your population density is like 1/12th of Ohio. And Ohio isn't even dense compared to the eastern seaboard.

Just saying, you shouldn't be surprised.

timothy said...

>>Or 700+ people came down with salmonella poisoning in The Dalles.

Believe it or not, that did actually make news back east. We thought, jeez, those people north of California are even weirder than Californians.

That and the volcano and Tacoma Narrows Bridge are all I knew about the NW.

timothy said...

Bulletin today. A thin strip on the right with Super Tuesday coverage. The whole rest of the front page is talk about Bend's woes.

Big money payouts and severance and benefits going to Anderson, Fuller, and Maniscalo as our budget goes to hell.

Problems with plowing sno-parks as out budget goes to hell.

Sinkholes in our roads as our budget goes to hell.

Bumpy washboard roads. We don't know why the hell this is happening.

Also, our golf courses are freezing over. The Mt. Bachelor story. Slowing economy. La Pine septic fight.

Still nothing about The Plaza, Newport Moderns, empty office buildings, or any sort of comprehensive run-down of where this bank or that is writing off failed loans.

timothy said...

Or remember the big story in the paper when Millbrook estates was going up in that extremely desirable field on Powers and Brookswood? So optimistic then. Where is the story telling us what the builder thinks about the project now? And why did all the lots just go up for sale in a big lump when only 6 houses have been built? Why do all those banners say you can get cheap financing? Why don't they advertise the awesome feature that you can moon Brookswood from on high up in your exposed bedroom balcony?

LavaBear said...

Why? Oregon is hardly a player on the national scene.

***

And that is kinda why it hurt so bad when Clyde, Terry, Jerome and Buck didn't win one. It's built into our psyche and we were national players for a bit.

timothy said...

>>And that is kinda why it hurt so bad when Clyde, Terry, Jerome and Buck didn't win one.

Oh yeah, I forgot. Real states have two pro baseball teams and two pro football teams. If you only have one baseball or football team, man, that's rough. Don't know how you make it.

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