Monday, October 8, 2007

BEND WILL BE BANKRUPT IN 3 YEARS

Sometimes I sit around on a Saturday afternoon getting mildly hammered, and think, "Holy Crap, I got nothing to post tomorrow!". Then I start cycling through the comments left in the previous week, and realize that there's a ton to talk about. So much so, that I can't really narrow it down to one thing, and this is one of those times.

First, we knew the financial shit hit the fan regarding Columbia Air's bankruptcy a few weeks back. I wrote how Columbia was basically a Ponzi scheme doomed to implode, and that if there was a perfect reflection & predictor of Bends future, it was Columbia Air. BendBilboBust wrote:

Cessna say's that 'IF' they become the lowest prevailing bidder, and their low-bid is accepted, over the other higher bids, then they'll keep the staff in Bend.

OK, let me let you in on a little secret. The chances of Textron actually keeping Columbia in Bend FOR REAL, is 0%, with a standard error of +/-5%.

OK, if you are trying scoop up assets at rock-bottom prices, and you are dealing with dumbshit, old boy networking, non-due-diligence butt bangers, like Bend City Council (which is who these statements are aimed at), you start making Totally Unfounded Promises about saving little baby deer, puppies, kitties from ferocious dragons, Snow White kissing a frog that turns into a Prince, keeping Columbia in Bend, and other fairy tales, because you know you are dealing with morons... Morons who actually paid 1,000% markup for odometer-rolled back pieces of shit, and called it a bus system.

Morons who, as Pamela Hulse Andrews stated it with respect to the Juniper Utility Company debacle, "cost the city thousands of dollars in legal fees". Ummm, yes. That is what she said. "Thousands of dollars in legal fees". And she's right. We did pay "thousands" in legal fees. We also paid "hundreds" in legal fees... 140,000 "hundreds". Call me crazy, but given the fact that the city paid MILLIONS in legal fees, AND MILLIONS in interest expenses, would have led to poor, stupid Paul-doh to put it this way: "MILLIONS in legal fees."

And Pamela: On the front page, lower left, under "Departments": it's Business & Industry, not Businss & Industry.


Anyway, back to Textron & Columbia. Textron is making a smart move in dealing with hill billy dumbshits who can barely wipe their ass without a consultant. Note this snippet from todays piece, "Despite growth, some are worried about challenges for manufacturing":

Columbia is one of the area’s top employers, with roughly 400 workers, and last month announced it was planning to sell to Wichita, Kan.-based Cessna Aircraft Co., the world’s largest maker of general aviation airplanes. Columbia also announced it was filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

The announcement worries regional leaders, who fear a larger company could move Columbia out of Central Oregon. Cessna must win a bankruptcy auction to buy Columbia against other bidders, but has said it would keep the company in Bend.

Man, they are playing "regional leaders" like a fiddle. Now listen up Bend City Council dumbshits: Columbia Air will NEVER stay in Bend long-term. There is NO WAY. Textron is doing what any savvy bidder would do: prey on the weaknesses of dumbass locals to try to extract an extra margin a preferential treatment (ie MONEY) from local, regional, state, and/or federal government. It WILL NOT WORK on the state or federal level. Why? These are actually marginally qualified bureaucrats who are quite used to flim flam artists, and Big Government has instituted onerous paperwork requirements that only allow the highest level bullshit artists, like Blackwater, Halliburton, and the like, to actually Get Money.

Textron will not go to that much trouble. Columbia is chickenfeed to them, and not worth the bother. What IS worth the bother is leading local hillbilly dumbasses by the nose into providing spiff after spiff (ie tax breaks, free land, muni-issues) in making Columbia a No Money Down And No Money Ever Deal.

My God, we are going to be led by the nose into providing ridiculous breaks for this company so they can scoop up Columbia For Free... and they will MOVE COLUMBIA TO KANSAS IN LESS THAN A YEAR ANYWAY!

The Old BAIT & SWITCH. The LAVA COURT MOMBO. The Taxpayer Two Step. Bend taxpayers will get HUMPED UNMERCIFUL, and Columbia will leave NO MATTER WHAT WE DO TO KEEP IT. Give Textron $20,000,000 in 0% financing? They leave in 1 year. $10,000,000? 6 months. Tax breaks, free land? 1 month. They don't care about these things. Chickenfeed. Can't be carted up & hauled to Wichita.

There is a hint of just what happens when you run a nice fancy Ponzi scheme like Columbia: Textron has offered $14MM + assumption of $7MM liabilities. The liabilities were almost certainly hand-picked as the most easily disposable from a legal standpoint. Columbia's liabilities stood at $60,000,000 at BK-time.

For every millions bucks Columbia was loaned, they managed to turn it into $230K, or about a -77% return. I've already predicted that as goes Columbia, so goes Bend, and that would mean the ultimate losses of a $1MM McChicken Shack bought at Dead Top in 2006, could ultimately bring $230K. That's a little brutal for Paul-doh's girly constitution, I think we'll only get clocked for -50% top-to-bottom, but -77% from an economic standpoint may be possible: extend a 50% whack out 12-15 years, and you probably looking at a near 80% loss in purchasing power by owning a home in Bend.

And it will be due in part to people like Pamela Hulse Andrews. This pathological lunatic actually believes that by making patently false statements about the heinous fiduciary violations of our city officials, that somehow people can be endlessly duped into buying The Bend Dream. What's stupid is she's been right so far. People do not seem to care that editorial standards in this town revolve around One Thing: Selling Real Estate. Lying to sell Real Estate comes to Andrews like breathing. It's the most natural thing in the World. Classic Ponzi Scheme thinking.

But Ponzi Schemes ALWAYS BUST. Always. It's a simple mathematical proposition. The suckers are ultimately squeezed for every dime, and the House Of Cards implodes. Almost everywhere in this country participated in the Worldwide Real Estate Bubble, but in Bend we fanned the flames like there was no tomorrow. THAT'S ALL THIS PLACE KNOWS HOW TO DO. Man, and we did it to good effect. We got Real Damn Good at it. Fact is, it's our SOLE CORE COMPETENCE. We MARKETED OUR WAY INTO IT, now that it's busting, WE'LL MARKET OUR WAY OUT. Think about it: When the Juniper Ridge backlash became too much to bear, what did Bend City Council want to do? Yes, hire a PR firm.

House on fire? Hire PR firm.

Need groceries? Hire PR firm

I'm an idiot? Hire a PR firm.

Economy going to shit? Hire a PR firm.

Hell, it's not just our core competence, it's our ONLY COMPETENCE. And PR is just about CHANGING PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS. This is also known as LYING, BULL SHITTING, and SPANKING UNCLE DUMBSHIT. Hulse Andrews is The Epitome of this. She owns a little piece of shit rag, and has NO COMPUNCTION about LYING, STRAIGHT UP, to sell real estate.

Hulse Andrews, KTVZ, The Bulletin, Bend City Council: All know absolutely NOTHING except GRIFTING. This is a town of fucking Ponzi grifters, NOTHING MORE. What kind of returns can you expect from a GRIFTER? Well, my own guess is it ranges between -75% and -100%. The Columbia Air Ponzi grifters had not honed their craft very well, and actually left something on the table.

But have no illusions: The Bend Ponzi Grift will end, and when it does we'll be looking at Population Exodus, Economic Implosion, and parts of this place looking like a Ghost Town.

The Duncan Tiff:

Well, Duncan wrote a piece, "You Can't Outsmart A Bubble", which included:

"realize its a bubble and has not reason. Don't try to outsmart it."

I responded with the idea that bubbles DO seem to have some sort of "internal logic" that makes sense to those who are participating. It HAS to. Even if the logic is, "This thing has gone UP 30% a year for 3 years, and committing lots of money will maximize your return because there seems to be No Reason To Believe The Returns Will Slow Down."

OK, this is an argument of OPINION and hence cannot be "Won". You can argue with someone that buying a Bubble Good is a Bad Idea, but you'll have a hell of a time winning if they are already convinced or committed. I know: I had friends buying stocks in 1999, the business of which they had not a single iota of information, but they did have Hot Tips, Rumor, Inside Info From Their Broker, and other priceless tidbits. My attempts to talk about "FACTS" received the Obligatory Eye Roll of someone caught up in Bubble-mania. Comparing buying stocks with buying a car, or hamburger, or something else in which one attempts to maximize the utility of each marginal dollar was met with scoffs of "Irrelevant".

I think Duncan & I fully agree on this thing: It does not make sense to US. But it DOES make sense to THEM. And it will have some sort of predictable characteristics, as all bubble do. From a comment I left on Duncans blog:

Maybe it's just semantics, but you seem to be saying that the "unpredictability" of a bubble makes it impossible to predict, but I think these "unpredictable" characteristics are very predictable... I KNOW it will draw in neophytes, I KNOW it will be cocktail party talk, I KNOW morons will make $ in the runup which draws in more neophytes, I KNOW it will go up farther than I ever thought possible, I KNOW I will not make a cent & stay out, and I KNOW it will end and end badly, far worse than I ever thought.

It IS irrational, it does NOT make sense to me (like any Ponzi scheme), but I think I can outsmart it. If by outsmart, you mean wait for it to implode, as it ALWAYS will. I think Duncan & I were having a little semantical Tempest In A Teapot discussion, in which we both really agree fundamentally, but due to some quirk of existence, we came at our agreement from opposite poles. Like James Gleick saw order in "Chaos": Duncan sees the Chaos, I am seeing the Order, and we are both right.

As I noted earlier, there is a piece in todays Bulletin, "Despite growth, some are worried about challenges for manufacturing". This piece is in essence about The Dreaded Scourge Of Inflation Killing Everything In Sight, something I wrote about ad nauseum, probably to much confusion and guffaws. After all, homes prices going through the roof is a Universal Good, No Lose Proposition, right? See, I OWN A HOME, and hence I am richer... EVERYONE WINS!

Uhhh, no. Well, you DO win for a little bit. Until the economy can adjust to the fact that prices for EVERYTHING have exploded higher. Now if you're in the retraction mode, and are trying to shrink your business, then you really don't care. But if you're expanding because... I don't know... you have a Ponzi Scheme to support, then the demand for the dwindling resources pushes prices to a point where a very slim sliver of SIC code industries can survive; overpriced sushi, time-shares, and the like. Per the Bulletin:

In Bend, a limited supply of industrial land has pushed prices to some of the highest in the state, prompting some manufacturers to shuffle around the High Desert to find more affordable regions to grow. Additionally, Bend’s cost of living strains the work force, pushing many employyees (sic) to commute from cheaper cities and making labor costs rise for the employer.

"Shuffle around"? Yeah, eye-rolling Kool-Aid words for LEAVING BEND. They're not SHUFFLING AROUND... THEY ARE LEAVING BEND. It's this little edge-case bullshit that drives me nuts. "Shuffle around"... like it's fuckin' musical chairs, and that companies are just wandering around without a care in the World, and they might end up in Bend as much as anywhere else when the Music Stops. And the Bullshit never ends:

The key to absorbing any job losses in a changing economy, officials say, is attracting a larger diversity of industries — and pointing out that Central Oregon remains cheaper to manufacture in than other Northwest regions.

Another Kool-Aid Vendor Favorite: Mixing fact, with some sort of Logical Nightmare. YES, diversity is a key to mitigating the loss of some number of jobs. Of course, this town has been managed for the precise OPPOSITE of diversity. Overpriced sushi and time-shares, are 2 of approximately 4 SIC codes that Bend can support. "Illegal street corner vendor", and "Ponzi Scheme Grifter" are the other 2.

Kit plane maker is NOT one of them. Check this HILARIOUS quote by Joseph Bartels, owner of Lancair:

“I’m worried that one day somebody is going to end up offering me so much money (to relocate the company) that I would be an absolute fool not to take it,” Bartels said last week, acknowledging that a town in Colorado is courting his company. “I love Oregon, but am discouraged that no economic-retention organization has been sufficient enough to … keep organizations like Lancair here.”

He's "WORRIED" about being offered a BOATLOAD of money, to relocate out of Bend. If you can say one thing about Bend's Ponzi Scheme Grifters, it's Them Mother Fuckers Learn Fast! Bartels saw Textron pulling the Bait & Switch Butt Banger Special Grift with Columbia, and IMMEDIATELY hopped on board. It involves a GRIFTER, a pack of DUMBSHITS (Bend City Council), and a worthless old NAG (Columbia Air, Lancair, or whatever the hell the grifter owns). The grift is as follows: Grifter approaches Dumbshits, tells them he'll pack up his worthless old nag and leave, said nag having liberal amounts of lipstick and a tutu for hornying up the hillbillies, if the Dumbshits do not give him The Cash. And like a 14 year old boy paying to be alone with a sheep, the money flows like water. THE GRIFTERS ARE TURNING ON EACH OTHER, cuz there ain't no more NEW MEAT. Here's Roger Lee's (EDCO Chief Grifter) attempt to grift the State of Oregon:

Roger Lee, executive director of Economic Development for Central Oregon, admits other areas of the country have more attractive incentives for certain industries than Central Oregon. For example, parts of the Midwest offer breaks on property taxes and other cash incentives for businesses in the aerospace industry, he said. Oregon’s incentives are primarily geared toward attracting tech companies, Lee said, and any change to that must come at the state level.

"State level"? Translation: "Bend has expended every nickel grifting (PR MARKETING) Cali-spankers and we are essentially broke. If the grift is going to continue, we'll need state money." And the flawed logic rolls on:

Bend’s industrial land may be pricey, he said, but the region still is more affordable than larger metropolitan areas, notably California. For example, the region’s employment costs, workers’ compensation rates, and sales and property taxes are lower than some neighboring states.

OK, dumbshits, here's where Paul-doh teaches you EVERYTHING YOU'LL EVER KNOW ABOUT ECONOMICS (safe to say, cuz Bend Officials know NOTHING): California has JOBS. When you're a fuckin' grifter, this is like talking about alien life on another planet, it doesn't compute. California is not primarily a Grifting-based Ponzi Scheme Economy like Bend. California has INCOME SUPPORTED PRICES. We have HOT AIR, PR-GRIFTING SUPPORTED PRICES. That's the difference.

This piece is essentially chronicling what happens when a scam unwinds. When the fungible goo of The Grift is gone, just like a ghost town, everyone leaves. What did we do with the MASSIVE money flows from Bubble-times? We doubled down on red, AGAIN. We have done EVERTHING IMAGINABLE to make Bend as UNATTRACTIVE as possible to Business, and by extension Good Paying Jobs. NO ONE will relocate to Bend. Everyone here is leaving. THAT'S what this piece is about.

Grifters need a MARK. Without a Mark, the grifter is DEAD. The inbound Mark is no longer succumbing to our PR bullshit, so we are starting to feed on each other: Lancair is pulling The Short Con on The Mark (Bend City Councilors) because they are proving to be The Biggest Idiots for 1,000 square miles. And man, are they some Obligingly Stupid Marks. They seem to actually WANT TO GET CONNED. Lava Court ring a bell? Linda Johnson actually CHEERED The Pigeon Drop Con put over on the city! These people are actually grifters who are using other peoples money (taxpayers) to enrich their fellow CON MAN!

Well shit, this post didn't end up like I planned! Thought it'd be a hodge-podge of stuff, but I guess when Paul-doh's panties get in a bunch over the heinous mismanagement of this place... well, The Rant takes over. Just realize folks, that this place is still PACKED with grifters pulling The Long Con on us: Mercato, The Plaza, untold subdivided 5ac plots going for MILLIONS, land-giveaways, tax subsidies... these are ALL people trying to pull The Big Score, and the victims are US. Lowlife Bend taxpaying schlubs who will have to foot ALL THESE BILLS. And like day follows night, there is ONE and only ONE OUTCOME:

BEND WILL BE BANKRUPT IN 3 YEARS

Addendum:

Oy, I NEVER add on to the "Original" post, but cannot resist: There's a piece in yesterdays Bulletin, "
ADA compliance: Cost is in the details -- Bend, behind on the work, says there are few contractors bidding for the high-priced precision changes the government is requiring".

What's great about this piece, besides the endless rationzalizing about Why We Are Overcharged For Every Single Construction Project (ummm... incompetence, graft, etc), is the actual extent to which taxpayers are RIPPED OFF in dollars & cents:

The cost issue does not appear to be letting up, as work to improve bus stops is now averaging about $20,000 per stop. Officials earlier this summer said they expected to be able to fix many bus stops for about $1,500 each.

McNichols Products, a national company with offices in Portland, sells complete 40-foot-long slotted drain kits for about $1,500.

Wilson’s bid — which includes labor costs — charged $8,525 for the job.

Similarly, Traffic Safety Supply Co. in Portland sells 2-by-5-foot bumpy yellow mats, known as detectable warning mats, for $175 each. The amount needed for the parking spaces would have cost about $1,050.

The line for that item on Wilson Curb’s bid — which also included labor — was $5,040.

The invoice charges a total of $300 for material and labor to install four concrete wheel stops, two for each space. Central Oregon Redi-Mix sells the stops for $25 apiece.

So rough estimates put Bend City Council WASTE near 85-90%. What does DESIGNER and Bend City Councilor Peter Gramlich think we should do?

Another source of added costs is the outside consultants the city uses for much of the ADA-related design work.

“Us constantly outsourcing design to consultants is the epitome of inefficiency on this,” Councilor Peter Gramlich, who is a home designer, said Wednesday.

Gramlich and other councilors urged city staff to start doing more design work themselves, even if it means creating new positions.

It never ends. When you are pulling The Long Con, you got to take every opportunity to suckerfish whatever shark it is you're attached to. Gramlich literally can't help himself from touting the "Push it on city staff... who will ultimately have to outsource it to ME as a consultant" macro-scam. Don't think so?

If you do not know who the Mark is, YOU ARE THE FUCKIN' MARK!

267 comments:

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Anonymous said...

http://www.savebaymeadows.org/news.php

Folks looking for smoking gun, can also look into 'bay meadows', its a race-track down in San Mateo, CA.

The site posted above has a very good chronology, about all of the LLC's that Kuratek ran, and the political creeps he broke bread with, the good news is the good people, of this website did save their track from Kuratek.

The bad news, is that he got tarred and feathered, and ran out of town, and backed his bags and ended up on the doorstep of Bend, San Mateo ran him out in 2004, and by 2005 he was doing the same shit in Bend, that got him ran out of California.

The good news again, is these 'little folks' won.

For a deep analysis of the entire spider web, and true ugliness google "bay meadows kuratek".

Anonymous said...

What leverage does Kuratek ( Rasputin ) have on City-Hall? Why does all the Bend staff and electables tremble at the presence of Kuratek. What does he have on the city? How did he manage to charm Jim Clinton to become his greatest supporter?

*

Among the many things that have occurred behind closed doors so far, the selection of Ray Kuratek as the developer may be one of the most troubling ones. Although John Russell of the city said many criteria were examined and used in the selection process it is hard to find proof of any.

−Russell stated Trammel Crow was rejected early in the process because their response to his RFQ was “not as responsive or in-depth” as the others. This is questionable since Trammel Crow is one of the largest and most respected developers in the country, has an office in Portland with a senior company manager as it head, and helped create the Microsoft campus in Redmond WA.

−Juniper Ridge Partners is no more than two people who formed the company in order to bid on Juniper Ridge

−Reading Juniper Ridge Partners reply to the RFQ it is difficult to find anything other than platitudes and vague feel-good statements.

−Russell further said, “Juniper Ridge Partners’ experience in developing a successful mixed-use project in San Mateo, CA was one of the key factors in recommending the team to the council.”

−Kuratek’s resume states that he was employed by Stockbridge Capital Partners from 5/94 to present. He further states that he was “responsible for the entitlements and development of a 175 acre, billion-dollar, mixed-use transit development.

−The web site of the Bay Meadows Land Co. (bmlc.com) says Phase I of the project was 91 acres and is complete. Phase II, now being used as race track, is currently seeking final approvals etc. to be able to proceed with any actions.

−Kuratek as claimed that, as the developer of Bay Meadows, he attracted Franklin to his project and would do the same for Juniper Ridge.

A phone call with the facilities manager for Franklin Templeton Funds revealed the following:

-Franklin has been located in the Bay Area since the 1950’s and began planning to build a campus in 1995.

-Kuratek was a consultant to the Bay Meadows Land Company, working for a fee and with no financial interest in the project.

-Kuratek, acting a consultant to the seller (Bay Meadows), helped the Franklin people with public meetings and working through the various regulatory requirements.

-Franklin built their campus entirely by themselves.

−bmlc.com further states, “When Bay Meadows Land company acquired Bay Meadows, approximately 39 acres were already committed by the prior owners for resale to Franklin Resources…An additional 34 acres were also previously committed to by the prior owners. Bay Meadows Land Company was not involved in the design or development of the Franklin Templeton headquarters, the JPI apartments or the Ryland Homes at Bay Meadows.”

−The fact that Kuratek was recently alleged to have opened himself to serious conflict of interest questions on side deals with surrounding landowners has not been realistically addressed by the cou

Anonymous said...

Why did Jim Clinton destroy his entire political career on the behalf of supporting Ray Kuratek? Does this guy got connections? Drugs? Women? Money? Where does this power to make Bend politicians fall on their sword come from??

***

What basis is there for the council to make itself a major partner in a development venture that will compete with the local private interests (that it is supposed to represent, encourage, and regulate)? No matter how many times Jim Clinton denies it, the legal agreement, the review of all aspects of the venture, the sharing of profits, and the apparent use of city resources to further the partnership’s interests make this quite clearly nothing more than a partnership in a private development venture.

Anonymous said...

−The fact that Kuratek was recently alleged to have opened himself to serious conflict of interest questions on side deals with surrounding landowners has not been realistically addressed by the council.

*

How about it BEM, anyone else want to guess what these 'side-deals' might be??

Do I have to explicitly provide the pink bucket of shit?

Anonymous said...

http://bendbubble.blogspot.com/2007/10/bend-city-with-dysfunctional-staff-and.html

*

An extremely strong stomach might be useful for the above, but only if you support Juniper Ridge, and want to expedite Ray Kurateks $2.5M golden parachute.

Anonymous said...

http://www.bendbulletin.com/archive/2007/08/07/city_will_limit_developers_land_deals_around_juniper.html

Kuratek develops "side deals" with land-owners near perimeter of Juniper Ridge.


***

City will limit developer's land deals around Juniper

By Peter Sachs / The Bulletin
August 7, 2007

The pending contract between the city of Bend and Ray Kuratek, the master developer of Juniper Ridge, would limit his ability to enter into side deals with properties adjacent to the 1,500-acre city development.

Kuratek said he was approached by numerous landowners late last year hoping to get....

Anonymous said...

http://realtytimes.com/rtcpages/20071012_mrktconditions.htm

*

Taxpayer dollars are paying off on PR, here is a national report, written by Bend RE, that says that Bend today is the best place to invest in RE.

The most interesting point, is that the ONLY negative of 'bend' is those FUCKING RESIDENTS who cannot adjust to growth.

Our fucking taxpayer dollars paid for this PR placement, and we're told that that our problem is that we the people have a bad attitude.

The positive is that the job market is great, and interest rates are only 7%, as most borrowers are paying 20%.

Anonymous said...

Bend Real Estate Officials Warn Tourists Against Patchouli Inhalation
Written by Zack Matheson
Story written: 12 October 2007
Bend Bulletin

BEND, OR -- Here in this so called "hippie haven" in the mountains, many people substitute patchouli oil for actual bathing and good personal hygiene. Margie Pierce, a tourist from Devil's Lake, North Dakota, discovered that patchouli oil can be dangerous.

Last weekend, while on vacation with her husband and two children, Margie Pierce accidentally wandered into a large drum circle in progress outside of a local bead shop. After inhaling large amounts of patchouli oil vapor radiating from the drum circle, Ms. Pierce was rushed to the hospital.

A HAZMAT team was called in to dispose of the noxious hippies but weren't able to remove them because every one of them were chained to trees to protest logging operations in the area.

A spokesman for the Oregon chapter of the American Heart Association stated that even used in small amounts, patchouli oil is still incredibly vile and suggests that people who use patchouli oil either bathe more often or simply stop smoking so much cannabis.

Anonymous said...

Kuratek said he was approached by numerous landowners late last year hoping to get....

*

Kuratek was approached, lets see the Master Developer, and Master Planner, and Master of Bend put up a sign that say's "Get Rich Quick Advice Available", and then folks approached him with land propositions. Just what Bend needs is another realtor.

Do you folks see where this is going? He's going to be the Next Hollern.

There will be Kuratek Resources, Kuratek Investments, Kuratek Security, Kuratek Crematorium, Kuratek Property Management, ... This will be bigger than ALL the BROOKS LLC's in Central Oregon.

Not bad for a guy covered with tar&feathers, that crawled up from cali just a few years ago. Becomes the Rasputin of City-Hall, I wonder where he'll go next?

Anonymous said...

http://realtytimes.com/rtcpages/20071012_mrktconditions.htm

*

Please IHTBYB rip this thing apart, I find it amazing that they can come right out and say that the nasty existing residents are the #1 problem with Bend RE sales, everything in Bend is fine.

Just old-timers with bad attitude.

What Bend needs is a Neutron Bomb that wipes the slate clean of all resident life, so that a fresh crop can be brought in who will appreciate growth, for the sake of growth.

The residents fight Juniper Ridge, our most elegant symbol of prosperity. These dumb old incestuous residents MUST be purged ASAP.

Brooks Security Now has the contract for Bend Stewards, which is a new private security team for securing all parks of illegal activity, the stewards can write tickets, but not carry guns, but they can carry any other weapon they wish. Brooks CCR's will now be enforced in ALL BEND CITY LIMITS. For instance the Stewards will be able to write a ticket for any hanging out laundry anywhere.

The stewards can write a $400 dog-off-leash ticket, and it will have the full power in Bend City Court. The cops don't want to do this shit, but Brooks Security will get 90% of the gross, and of that each steward takes in 10% of the gross on each face value of ticket.

Primary initial will be park patrol for alchohol, littering, indecency, general CCR problems that plague all Brooks Subdivisions by the 100's in Central Oregon.

The stewardship program is predicted to drive ALL residents out of Bend during the first year of the program.

All stewards MUST have spent at least 4 years in Iraq, and preferrably Falluja. Mike Hollern of Brooks has stressed to the Steward candidates that the residents of Bend are every bit as hostile good living as Iraqis.

Anonymous said...

The stewards can write a $400 dog-off-leash ticket, and it will have the full power in Bend City Court.

*

Last year the cops wrote 2,000 dog tickets, at $400, thats only $80k, that will barely pay kuratek one month for providing Rasputin services to city-hall.

It's imperative that Brooks Security bring "Bend Stewards" online ASAP and patrol ALL of the city 24/7 for ALL illegal activity. This in its entirety should pay for ALL Juniper Ridge costs, e.g. the cost to keep Kuratek here, note that this is a good program because it would cost the city and the taxpayer nothing.

tim said...

Brooks auctioning off townhomes.

It has begun.

Up until now, panic has been seen only on an individual level, as foreclosures and short sales move up the price scale.

When people see that Brooks is auctioning, that's the excuse to finally realize we won't be the only place in the country to avoid the big downturn.

The panic starts now.

Anonymous said...

I'm shocked by the Patchouli incident.

Someone could have died, imagine what negative publicity that could have harmed our tourism industry we have worked so hard to develop.

The Patchouli incident is a perfect example of why by Emergence Ordinance today the City Council must adopt the "Bend Stewardship" program.

If we had Stewards on the street these hippy's would have never been in Bend in the first place.

Signed, Association of Bend Real Estate Official's

Anonymous said...

Timmy where did you hear this? Print some evidence.

I know that two months ago Mike Hollern halted all NWXC new building. I knew he had a wholesale auction planned, but it was supposed to be around turkey-day.

Provide information on the auction.

Anonymous said...

The auction if true may provide insight in why todays 'realty-times' online said that Bend had some of the best deals in the country.

A little advance PR.

Anonymous said...

First of all its ONLY three condo's, and I can tell you what he's going to do, did you read the story about old watches the other day in WSJ?? Turns out all these auctions are phony internal bidders, to make people think the shit is valuable.

They did the PR, and the SHIT will sell for quite high, only THREE, and they'll buy from themselves, and then the BULL will go "LOOK HOW GOOD THIS IS".

This isn't a real auction, a real auction is when he start's dumping whole developments in madras, or priny.
.......
Developer will auction townhomes
Brooks Resources aims for quick sale of remaining high-end RiverWild units
By David Fisher / The Bulletin
Published: October 12. 2007 5:00AM PST
Published daily in Bend, Oregon, by Western Communications, Inc. Copyright 2007.
Times have turned tough in the Central Oregon housing market, so one of the region’s largest developers is turning to an offbeat tool to sell three of its premium townhomes along the Deschutes River rim.

An auction.

Published daily in Bend, Oregon, by Western Communications, Inc. Copyright 2007.

Anonymous said...

This is only the first step. Much more going on inside Brooks.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Brooks auctioning off townhomes.

It has begun.


I thought that too. Until I saw it had a reserve. This is no auction. A flat-out No-Reserve public auction... THAT would be interesting. But I also believe this may be some sort of FAKE, a setup to "Prove" how SOLID Bend RE really is.

I think if there were TRUE No-reserve public auctions, THAT would be the UNDOING of Cent OR real estate. You'll notice NO ONE SINGLE "AUCTION" of Bend homes has succeeded, because all are simply masked price reductions (there is a reserve price), and the reductions are MARGINAL.

A public no-res auction would reveal the market clearing price, which would show The Emperor Has No Clothes... The market clearing price (generalized median) is probably 30% below where we are.

This Brooks "auction" is a PR stunt, trying to make a marginal price reduction "mole-hill" into a PR "mountain". YAWN.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And if you have an iota of eBay experience, you know that even with no-res auctions, self-dealing is rampant... bidding on your own stuff when it comes in below your own "internal" reserve.

I'll bet you RIGHT NOW, this auction SUCCEEDS wildly, because it's a 100% FRAUD. There'll be a Bulletin piece about it's INCREDIBLE & UNEXPECTED SUCCESS. Hollern will be SURPRISED AS HELL.

WOW! THINGS LOOK GREAT! I'M SURPRISED AS HELL!

Right. This is a 100% FRAUD, PR-Marketing bullshit scam to PROVE that Bend is IMMUNE to the Bubble Bursting. If things were so good, this FRAUD would be 100% unnecessary. This 100% FRAUDULENT BULLSHIT "AUCTION" is proof of only 1 thing: Bend RE is practically UNSALABLE at current prices. The market clearing price is 30% below where it is today. It'll be 50% below in 3 years.

Stop the bullshit, mark your crappy overpriced, shitty-quality flipper-bait piece of crap down 30%, and it'll sell. Either that or be forced to mark it down more as the months roll on. Brooks is simply in a last gasp effort to flush out the rarest species on the planet: Bucket/Box dumbshits with cash that can & will STILL buy RE in the face of guaranteed losses.

Duncan McGeary said...

Cynical ploy or not, I still find it interesting that Brooks is still ahead of the curve, at least further ahead than all these newcomer developers.

Brooks has been through it before. They're managing an organized retreat. They'll probably escape with their skins.

The other guys are apparently still clueless.

Duncan McGeary said...

I've said it before. Keep your eye on Brooks. They've been through it before. They're smart people.

They pushed this surge for all it was worth, but I'll bet you they had a plan of retrenchment worked out in advance.

If they've set that plan in motion, they are going to be months if not years ahead of anyone who hasn't planned for this, or if they have planned, pulled the trigger.

Brooks has been through a downturn in Bend, before, and knows just how bad it can get. The other guys have been through downturns elsewhere and only think they know how bad it will get.

Anonymous said...

Here. These folks are headed your way.

Lenders siezed more than 1,000 homes in Riverside County in August and again in September. That’s more than five times as many repossessed homes as in July and almost 20 times as many as in September 2006, according to RealtyTrac.” “Just before the bank took possession of a home in northwestern Riverside County, its former owners attacked the walls with paintball guns and smashed gaping holes in them.”

“They ripped out stair railings, banisters and cabinet doors in the half-million-dollar Eastvale house. Then they turned on the upstairs bathroom sinks, put down the drain stoppers and fled as the bank’s locksmith arrived to rekey the doors.”

Anonymous said...

“They ripped out stair railings, banisters and cabinet doors in the half-million-dollar Eastvale house. Then they turned on the upstairs bathroom sinks, put down the drain stoppers and fled as the bank’s locksmith arrived to rekey the doors.”

*

This is why ol bendbust keeps saying over&over, that nobody in their right mind wants to buy a REPO. Find nice little homes that have been loved, if you must buy.

By a REPO inherit a nightmare.

Anonymous said...

I've said it before. Keep your eye on Brooks. They've been through it before. They're smart people.

*

The road to hell is paved with smart people. Brooks survived the 1983 crash, because he was cash poor, and land rich.

Now he's house rich, over-extended, and he's going to have to DUMP a ton of shit in the coming months to meet the withdrawal demands on Brooks investments.

Smart don't have nothing to do with it. You call Brasada, Yarrow, Pronghorn, ... NWXC SMART? Yeh FUCKING BROOKS called it SMART-GROWTH.

Let's see how FUCKING SMART HIS GROWTH WAS.

My nickel is that he's going to be looking pretty fucking DUMB, putting all that good money into Jefferson & Crook County as late as 2006, and later. Fucking Brilliant. NOT.

Smart don't have a fucking thing to do with it, and EMPIRE built on MARKETING & PR, and that's ALL they have.

SMART MARKETING & SMART PR, ONLY WORKS WHEN YOU CAN BRING IN SUCKERS WITH CASH. THEY NO LONG EXIST.

Anonymous said...

Bucket/Box dumbshits with cash that can & will STILL buy RE in the face of guaranteed losses.

*

The interesting thing here is this is the good shit, this is his best condos, in the best hood.

We're NOT talking Yarrow here, we're talking MT-B Village, he's going to get PR in the Realty Section of the BULL about how great this sub-division is, with pic's that money cannot buy.

Three fucking condos auctioned, if you look at the big picture this is like him swatting three flys at the dump in the middle of summer in a MTN of SHIT. There are 10K fly's, and Brooks has killed three. Holy fucking shit, this man is going to single handedly rescue the Bend Bubble.

The other take is he lets the THREE gorgeous condos go cheap, and like todays story in the 'realty times' online, everyone makes a big fucking deal how BEND is give luxury away for free. The point is whether the auction is fixed, or the DEAL is fixed to attract NEWS, its a sign of MARKETING-PR that is FUCKING desperate.

Keep Swatting those fly's Mike, you only have 99999997 left to kill.

Anonymous said...

They pushed this surge for all it was worth, but I'll bet you they had a plan of retrenchment worked out in advance.

*

The believed their own BROOK-SHIT, even up to the 11th hour, still dumping money into Brasada, Pronghorn, Yarrow, ... Look around downtown all those boutique Realtor-as-Art shops are BRAND-NEW.

Plan?? Yes, there was a fucking plan, the easy-money would last forever, folks would just keep moving to Bend. The boyz like Sebastian didn't even arrive until 2002, if they thought the bubble was going to peak as early as 2005/2006, they wouldn't have invested. I know tons of developers that have been trying to dump their 20 acres for over a year now.

Its fairly clear that Hollern, believed his own Brook-SHIT.

Look at his infamous quote, "non-placement bound people, no real children, no real jobs", he only said that a few months ago, that is the talk of an angry man.

All the rich were going to come to Central Oregon, hell they were going to come to Madras, Prineville, ...

Brooks even has developments planned next to Juniper Ridge. The planning is still going on, the only problem is that nothing is selling. So what do you do??

You see what they're doing, they're creating their own marketing PR show, and the media is going along with it, because they know, that it is just like DUBYA's war, we MUST stay the course.

Anonymous said...

This is only the first step. Much more going on inside Brooks.

*

Honestly, all silly rhetoric aside. What can they really do at this late stage in the game?

There are NO buyers. This is the most over-valued RE in the country.

It all goes back to M49, Hollern still holds tons of pre-1972 land. If M49 passes, then he can sell/transfer all that worthless land to foreign investors who will buy it, because M49 guarantees them pre-1972 rights. It would just be buy & hold.

If M49 fails, then Brooks has NOTHING to sell, Bankruptcy is imminent. All is dependent upon M49.

Hell if M49 passes, he can use ALL the pre-1972 land as collateral to hold off his creditors. It's now a waiting game until November.

tim said...

It'll be interesting to watch. Even if Brooks does goes bankrupt, you can bet Hollern won't give up without a fight.

I expect this is just the first move we'll see.

Maybe he already knows he's going to lose the chess game, but he's still going to play it.

Duncan McGeary said...

All I'm saying is if evidence of an awareness of problems is actually doing something pro actively, Brooks seems to be the first out of the gate.

First they unloaded the property down by the river a few months ago, now this. They've ramped up their promotional efforts, and I suspect they've cashed in some chips to get all the coverage.

It takes time to put these into effect, so I'm guessing they have a plan.

It may be a lifeboat and not a oceanliner, but at least it'll be something. Being Bendites, their used to that.

Duncan McGeary said...

At the end of a bubble, it isn't about making big money, or any money, anymore. It's about unloading what you've got left. Before you take a loss, before the other guy, before you can't unload it at all.

Anonymous said...

At the end of a bubble, it isn't about making big money, or any money, anymore. It's about unloading what you've got left. Before you take a loss, before the other guy, before you can't unload it at all.

*

Duncan, I agree in abstraction, but lets get to your matrix approach here.

1.) You didn't play at all have no debt, and secure job and/or income. No worry. Except crime.

2.) You played, your in debt, and you can't liquidate. You have no income, because RE appreciation was your income. Your Fucked.

3.) You Played, You sold out in early 2006. You have no debt. Your sitting pretty, with your cash in T-BILLS. You have no worry, except crime.

4.) You played, your sitting on tons of un-sellable shit, and you have a good income. Your bleeding to death, with no possibility of closure. In time the burn-rate will evaporate your cash.

Ok, my guess is from what we all say here, we're mostly 1's, and there might even be a 3 out there, but he's probably a liar, as you eloquently point out, nobody can call a bubble until game-over.


There are MANY #2's, like most people in this town, they played, and they bought top of market. They're fucked. They came to Bend to play, and they'll lose their 401K, and et-al.

The #4 are the strange animal, on a HUGE scale HOLLERN ( BROOKS ) is a #4, and there are lots of little #4's, but the problem here is its only a matter of time, before your cash burn-rate evaporates your net-worth.

Yes, HOLLERN has a large bank-account, but he's got a BURN-RATE from hell.

I suspect that Mrs Breeze, and Dubois are also #4's. These people have EVERYTHING in RE, they violated rule #1 if you keep all your eggs in one basket watch them like a hawk.

Hollern simply has too many baskets, and too many LLC's.

Now if you want to sell it's -30% of the high ( summer 06 ), my humble opinion has been for over a year now that Aug 06 was game-over. I feel that the Shire was insanity, and that is exactly when Bitch Kuratek's Handler UBS-Suisse Bank said fuck-you to Juniper Ridge. Smart folks really did know in August 2006, it was over.

So why in the FUCK did Hollern keep dumping money into the downtown boutiques, and the Madras, and Priny SHIT if he's so smart????

Since Feb 07, there have been some very sweet deals out there, and that's how the smarter folks DUMPED, they had equity, they could drop their price.

We're now in RE paralysis, very few can go down, or they would have gone down, now its just wait for REPO.

Anonymous said...

It may be a lifeboat and not a oceanliner, but at least it'll be something. Being Bendites, their used to that.


*

I still say they have swatted less than 1/2 dozen flys.


When I start seeing entire sub-divisions go wholesale auction, then I'll be impressed.

Yes, you mention the River, that's my point what he's selling is his good stuff. If he were so smart he wouldn't be dumping Park-Place, he would be dumping Yarrow, but he can't so he's dumping the good stuff because it will sell.

What happens very soon now when he has NO more good stuff? and only crap-shacks to sell?

Anonymous said...

It takes time to put these into effect, so I'm guessing they have a plan.

*

You have a plan, and yet you know in your heart that if sales go down more than 50% its going to be very hard to stick it out, I have said that if your willing to go out of your garage you could survive all the way down to -90% drop in sales.

Planning and survival are too different issues, its How Bad Do You Want to Survive?

A plan is fine, but reality is a completely different matter.

I don't mean to use Brooks always as an example, but hell he is the boss-hogg, its his town, he paid for 'smart-growth', its all his nightmare, thus I'm as fascinated by how he blew up the bubble, as how it deflates around him. All these other folks from Kuratek to Breeze to Sebastian, are just human see, human do wannabe's of Hollern. No offense to the man, but if you want to understand the history of the Great Bend Bubble RE Depression, you must study Brooks Resources.

Anonymous said...

Maybe he already knows he's going to lose the chess game, but he's still going to play it.
-timmy

*

Exactly like I have said for months, Brooks has 100's of LLC's, so what if 20% ro 50% go bankrupt, creditor come and get it, ... Probably what he is doing right now is selling the best stuff from each LLC's that are most likely to be sold whole-sale, who knows. It's clear that he's getting the cash from the best.

Think of each LLC as a piece on the chess board, he has 100's of men, so what if 50% go bankrupt, I'm not suggesting he's out of the game. It 's just that in the Bend area he is the game.

Anonymous said...

Hell if M49 passes, he can use ALL the pre-1972 land as collateral to hold off his creditors. It's now a waiting game until November.

*

It's really too bad that nobody in this group as any real grasp nor care about Oregon. I gather that not a one of you own land. This is all just a big joke on the internet to pass time.

What Hollern & Gray are doing with M49 is creating two types of land. Anybody holding pre-1972 land will now be able to sell it, and the buyer can build, today thats not the case M37 says ONLY the pre-1972 owner.

Thus NOW ALL post 1972 land is going to be without value, so it will fall in price.

Thirty five years ago Hollern & Gray got SB100 passed which created UGB, and made their land valuable, inside of UGB, and other peoples land outside of UGB without value. Now thrity-five years later the land that was outside of UGB, Hollern-Gray are once more doing the flip, now they're going to make their outside UGB very valuable, and ALL post-1972 land outside of UGB without value.

I don't care personally, I own both kinds of land. What bothers me is they got away with this the first time in the name of the environment, and now they're going to get away with it again, in the name of the environment, but this time, shit will get built all over the place outside of UGB.

I guess that is the problem, when all of Bend is just non-placement bound parasites.

Hollern ( Black-Butte ), and Gray ( Sunriver ) will get away with this, and they'll make a fortune on the flip side, exactly like they did back in 1972. This is how the rich get richer, and ALL you dumb fuck just struggle through your pathetic lives scratching bugs off the ground.

The M49 is going to change Central Oregon like no change we have ever seen before, bubble or no bubble. In about 5+ years the entire desert will be filled with crap-shacks and Oregon Land Control will be considered a big fucking joke.

You you all get what you deserve for feeding at the Hollern Trough.

Duncan McGeary said...

Maybe I'm overestimating Brooks astuteness, the way Bilbobend overestimates their nefarious tentacles into every facet of Bend.

What I'm trying to say is, once you've been in the kind of downturn that Bend had in the early '80's, you're not likely to forget it. Any plan worth its name would have ways of escaping -- golden parachutes, reversion rights, whatever, and I'd be willing to bet that Brooks has some of that.

It appears to me that they've been very careful not to build too much of Yarrow without money in hand, the same way Bauhofer hasn't built Thetherow. Unlike the idiots at Northwest Crossing that believed: 'If you build it, they will come.'

Others think may think they're prepared, they may think they know what a slowdown is, but it may never have happened in their current career, and certainly not the way it could happen in Bend.

Anonymous said...

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/698160/

* COLUMBIA IS FUCKED REPORT

IHTBYB get two cold beers, drink them before you read the above, everything we predicted about the low-bidder being a done-deal was true. Now the creditors are PISSED.

Anonymous said...

Unlike the idiots at Northwest Crossing that believed: 'If you build it, they will come.' - duncan

*

Ok, folks, just in case their are readers who don't enjoy Duncan 'socratic methods' of discourse.

First of all he says that boss hogg hollern, ain't a fucking moron, aka Brook Resources, then he goes on to point out that the folks that BUILT, BOUGHT, DEVELOPED, and PIMPED NWXC is fucking Brooks Resources.

So which one is it dunc, is Brooks a fucking idiot or not.

Lastly, I don't need to make shit up, there are according to my count, over a hundred fucking LLC's in Central Oregon ALL owned by Brooks Resources, aka boss hogg hollern, including of fucking course North West Crossings, which in itself is a dozen fucking LLC's.

Anonymous said...

Ok, I had a few beers, I hadn't had a few beers for a few days, and I had a few crocodile tears for Brooks Resources.

What upset me the most was that there legal Team is Miller-Nash, aka Super-Lawyer in the PNW legalese.

So what if Brooks can sell off the good shit now, and say a couple dozen LLC's go south, that's an excellent write-off, remember in the RE biz, you don't pay tax until you make profit. You don't make a profit until you sell, right now Brooks will try and sell the good stuff to get cash, and he'll let the bad stuff ( YARROW, BRASADA, ... ) become a very sweet loss, that makes all the profit NIL, thus a sweet tax-free gain.

Me wept many a crocodile tears over me beer thinking about poor Brooks Resources, having to spend all their RE profits on tax lawyers, in order to avoid taxes, but then this is the American way. God Bless America.

I don't think anybody but me will feel sorry and be shedding crocodile tears for all boss hogg hollern.

The only thing left for the bend blog fodder brigade is to predict that which he'll sell ASAP, and that which we'll dump for a tax loss, aka write-off.

Anonymous said...

the way Bilbobend overestimates their nefarious tentacles into every facet of Bend.

*

Dunc NWXC alone is one dozen LLC's, and there are several dozen active sub-divisions right now.

Ok, your an employer, but the other blogger-fodder's aren't thus a little education, your exempt from federal employment laws if your 'company' has less than fifty employees. Brooks with there 100's of LLC's in Central Oregon if it was JUST ONE FUCKING company would be the largest employer in Oregon.

But they don't do it that way they have dozens and dozens of LLC's that are ALL OFF THE FUCKING RADAR.

Once there are bankruptcy's it will just be individual LLC's, not the company Miller-Nash SUPER-LAWYER put the structure together, the best law-firm in the NW, this is IRON tight shit, no matter how bad say YARROW fucks its creditors, they can NEVER come after Brooks, et-al.

No matter HOW bad Brooks fucks an LLC office in say Bend, the employees are fucked, because its a small business.

Anonymous said...

Why is it that of ALL the cunts on the blog board, not a fucking one will read the M49 text but timmy?

Why?

This is the ONLY important issue facing us, everything else is PURE Brook-Shit.

Lastly, somebody please payoff Kuratek his $2.5M and save us some money today, while we're still ahead.

Anonymous said...

This is really curious, and thanks to Land Use Watch for catching it. It seems that Oregonians In Action's Dave Hunnicutt understands that Measure 37 has gone too far in the minds of most Oregonians.

"I think the average Oregonian would like to see some sort of compromise, not a repeal - and that's exactly what (Measure) 49 is," Hunnicutt told the Eugene Register Guard.

***

The OPPOSITION to M49, the ONLY opposition, 'was' OIA ( oregonians in action ), and now even they have seen the light and now support M49, look here hunnicutt the OIA head-dog and promoter of M37, loves M49.

Thus M49 has NO opposition, its all a myth, this is the most incredible PR Measure in Oregon History.

OIA back M37, they got it passed, they got as much as they could get, but now that Hollern&Gray need to sell THEIR LAND, ( recall M37 was an attempt to neuter SB100 1972 LCDC GRAY&HOLLERN's love-child ), NOW that GRAY-HOLLERN need to sell land, they come out with M49, and its OK, by all.

What's good for Gray-Hollern, is good for ALL Oregonians. Even the Green Ones, especially the Green, the color of money.

This is completely incredible.

Duncan McGeary said...

I went to Brooks Resources website, and Bendbust may be more on to something that I thought.

I still suspect that there are varying degrees of exposure to risk in all their developments. The developments that are totally theirs, they seem to build in phases that are bought in advance.

Northwest Crossing is in partnership with someone else -- and since it has none of exclusivity and charm of their other developments, I wonder if they just provided the damn land.

But at this point, I think I'll just back off. My basic points about Brooks relative savvy remains, but damned if I can figure out what is theirs and what isn't....

Thing about bendbust, everytime you think he's exaggerating, come to find out he not far off the mark.

Duncan McGeary said...

Bendbust is like Columbus, he may have found the wrong continent, but he found something interesting anyway...

Anonymous said...

I went to Brooks Resources website

*

Dunc,

1.) You'll learn very little about Brooks from the website. The better approach is to go to the Yarrow site, Brasada, e.g. to all sites, which all have their own web sites and they're all their own cluster of LLC's, you can gleam a little info on each, and then put the WHOLE pic together, but if you just go to the Brooks Corporate site you'll learn nothing.

2.) They have their own Investment Bank called "Brooks Investments", they actually sell their own CDO's for their developments.

The investment company invests in the LLC's,

This is all like Kuratek, when he got the city to sign on to his JR proposal back in 2005 he told them about 1/2 dozen firms he worked with down in cali, problem is all the firms were Kura

My gut feeling on Brooks being 'savvy' is that granny is going to be calling her money back, once she hears that Bend is no longer a safe place to 'invest', not only that, but for no other reason that MOST smart grannys that aren't yet broke want their money back.

Brooks has all these LLC's, for instance up at NWXC it has its own realty office, which is a Brooks LLC, ...

This whole thing is going to un-ravel quite quickly.

Anonymous said...

Bendbust is like Columbus, he may have found the wrong continent, but he found something interesting anyway...

*

Just trying to find my way to the D&D and back, Columbus was trying to find a new passage to the new world.

I know nobody in this town gives a fuck about Bend.

Anonymous said...

Ok, So boss-hogg-hollern sell's three condos, fucking condo's near the river, he calls it an 'auction', but it has a reserve,

Why is it FRONT-PAGE BULL NEWS that Brooks Resources has THREE CONDOS for sale????

Bend is ONLY ABOUT SELLING CONDOS, that the ONLY reason this city exists. From now on every time Brooks has a condo for sale is this going to be page-one news? Did Brooks BUY the fucking BULL?

tim said...

>>Why is it that of ALL the cunts on the blog board, not a fucking one will read the M49 text but timmy?

Finally, something almost less than disdain. I grovel.

The more I read this blog, the more I worry about my gameplan. (And I AM here to learn, not for the pure entertainment value, of which there is much.)

I've been expecting mass bank takeovers of properties in Bend. Price declines to 2003, or even earlier levels.

I'm prepared for Plan B in that DOESN'T happen. (Go to a part of the country where my down payment here buys a whole house there.)

But am I prepared for the true ramifications of Plan A?

If Bend crashes hard and I get what I thought I wanted, am I just living it up in a sweet house in a decimated crime-ridden, depressing hellhole of a town?

Anonymous said...

NWXC, Note the below, 'anybody' can now build, and the lots are down -60%, just one year ago there were ONLY seven preferred builders. Now its cut&run time. How do you spell DESPERATE to run away from NWXC? It's a good thing that Brooks doesn't have anything to do with NWXC.
*
$150000 NW Crossing lots for sale...bring your own builder
Reply to: hous-447710281@craigslist.org
Date: 2007-10-12, 9:53PM PDT


Licensed contractor builds for cost plus 8% with simple open-book program. For the first time ever new builders are welcome to this great neighborhood. This added competition means big savings for you if you are seeking a lean, mean and green experienced no frills licensed and bonded general to deliver your product on time and on budget.

Volume investor discounts available. 2/10 builder's warranty included.

Reply for more information about our contract build program or leads on other buildable lots on the west side.

Anonymous said...

If Bend crashes hard and I get what I thought I wanted, am I just living it up in a sweet house in a decimated crime-ridden, depressing hellhole of a town?

*

Yes, I have tried to stress this all along, I have suggest to buy while you still can, in your game plan its wait until Bend is a cannibalistic shit-hole, where Mrs Breeze and Dubois are running around siphoning gas out of cars at night.

It's coming, and thus you can BUY now in a gated community, or wait for bottom if you have cash.

Note, however it will NOT be as bad as South Africa, or Iraq.

We already live in a depressing shit-hole, and the crime thing I have addressed, the solution is already on the city-hall list of emergency ordinances, its called 'Bend Stewards'.

Anonymous said...

Hollern/Brooks CCR's to APPLY to Entire City Limits of Bend - How the RE Depression Crime Issue will be Controlled.

*

Brooks Security Now has the contract for Bend Stewards, which is a new private security team for securing all parks of illegal activity, the stewards can write tickets, but not carry guns, but they can carry any other weapon they wish. Brooks CCR's will now be enforced in ALL BEND CITY LIMITS. For instance the Stewards will be able to write a ticket for any hanging out laundry anywhere.

The stewards can write a $400 dog-off-leash ticket, and it will have the full power in Bend City Court. The cops don't want to do this shit, but Brooks Security will get 90% of the gross, and of that each steward takes in 10% of the gross on each face value of ticket.

Primary initial will be park patrol for alchohol, littering, indecency, general CCR problems that plague all Brooks Subdivisions by the 100's in Central Oregon.

The stewardship program is predicted to drive ALL residents out of Bend during the first year of the program.

All stewards MUST have spent at least 4 years in Iraq, and preferrably Falluja. Mike Hollern of Brooks has stressed to the Steward candidates that the residents of Bend are every bit as hostile good living as Iraqis.

tim said...

>>This whole thing is going to un-ravel quite quickly.

>>Why is it FRONT-PAGE BULL NEWS that Brooks Resources has THREE CONDOS for sale????

It's only a big deal because it IS Brooks. It's foreshadowing. It's an omen. It's Brooks saying, goddamn, how embarrassing.

You're right, this is not the real thing. This isn't the first domino faling.

But it is the finger moving to the first domino. Shit is going to start hitting the fan so fast the stunned readers of the Bulletin have to be prepped.

Hollern saying "things suck" in a giant story on the front page is the perfect anecdote to the Realtors on the business page at the end of every housing story saying, "I think things are picking up again."

The big story, aside from Brooks, is Becky Breeze's Plaza loan. Someone once said she has a payment due on that thing in December. How many of those Deeeeluxe Apartments in the Sky has she sold?

tim said...

>>where Mrs Breeze and Dubois are running around siphoning gas out of cars at night

Wow. You CAN find a silver lining in any dark could.

Anonymous said...

If Bend crashes hard and I get what I thought I wanted, am I just living it up in a sweet house in a decimated crime-ridden, depressing hellhole of a town?

*

Most will move on, folks like Duncan will go out of biz, and move into his garage, if he really wants to stay in biz.

If you live in an old hood where neighbors watch each other's home, and their ALL ARMED TO THE TEETH, things will be ok.

I guess the real choice is your recurring 'resort' issue, bend was never a resort, and living in a town with all of downtown boarded up is not resort living. Given if it is true you can live anywhere, then why here? I'm stuck here. If I were younger I would consider Australia, South Africa, New Zealand, I say this because they're beautiful and expansive.

When the Bend-Stewards become online, all of Bend will become one big gated community, many old-timers will leave, because they'll not want nazi brown-shirts following them around like sharks.

A recurring theme coming from the 'goldens' in Bend is that its the people, the old-timers that are an impediment to progress in Bend, the old-timers will be blamed for the failure of Juniper Ridge.

The old-timers will be punished.

Anonymous said...

Hollern saying "things suck" in a giant story on the front page

*

Hollern saying 'things stuck' is bend bust says "Real Estate Paralysis, ala 1932".

tim said...

>>in any dark could.

Wow, did you see that "l"? It jumped TWO whole letters to the right!

>>the old-timers will be blamed for the failure of Juniper Ridge.

Now that's a good point. My wife (unlike me, a very social person--she might even have met you) knows a lot of old-timers and a lot of new Bend. She said the side-talk has really heated up. She thinks it's silly. But I think there's something to the heat. Feels like West Side Story.

Which side is the Bulletin on? In other words, where's the $$$?

Anonymous said...

http://realtytimes.com/rtapages/20050202_appraisalcrisis.htm

*

Read above if you think I'm cynical, the National Appraisal Association say's that you cannot even be in the Real Estate business today without committing felony's on a daily basis.

Anonymous said...

Which side is the Bulletin on? In other words, where's the $$$?


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The BULL is it in for the long-term, they put their wet finger out, and figure who has the prevailing power, and after all, today RE is the basis of their revenue.

What will it be after RE? Revenue down 90%, ... I have predicted for a year now there will be mass layoffs at the BULL by xmas.

Anonymous said...

She said the side-talk has really heated up. She thinks it's silly. But I think there's something to the heat. Feels like West Side Story.

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Blame game, greed was the prevailing emotion, and now fear, find the innocent and punish them.

Despise those that aren't wallowing in self pity, bail-out Mrs. Breeze and the other "Golden's".

My wife doesn't have a clue what's going on nor cares, her girlfriend was up at Brasada the other and told her that everything has gold, including the street numbers. The only comment to date has been "What a beautiful place".

So many dreams, so much pressure to get rich, to build, to destroy. We all know that the system is imploding because easy-money is over. Like Duncan says, and this includes my wife, most don't even have an idea yet what is to come. I learned some 30+ years ago not to 'discuss' negatives with others, that's why I blog with the other blog-fodders.

Juniper Ridge is a good example 80% of the people are against it, but it moves on, the city-hall is exactly like the DUBYA government, they'll do as they wish, until they're recalled or impeached. The city staff and politicians DESPISE the people of Bend. Everyone in the city-biz had plans to get rich, Bend was going to become ASPEN. The dreams are now nightmares.

Whose fault is the failure? The people of Bend, the new people came here to make it a better place, but the old-timers impeded progress.

The old-timers MUST be punished, and punished severely.

Anonymous said...

Blame game, greed was the prevailing emotion, and now fear, find the innocent and punish them.

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Greed, Fear, and Now Anger.

The principal attitude of city-hall is now that the residents are the enemy of growth.

National RE advises that while Bend is still a good investment, the residents are the #1 obstacle to growth.

Juniper Ridge is now the battle ground.

Anonymous said...

NWXC, Note the below, 'anybody' can now build, and the lots are down -60%,

Do you have ANY data on this or are you just blowing smoke like the realtors out there????

Anonymous said...

Dear Pigpen,

Go back to bendbb and butt fuck bendbb.

Sally

Anonymous said...

Hey,
Go back to bendbb and butt fuck bendbb.

Sally
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Sally sounds like like your brilliant cat.
===========
I am just trying to keep this site legit, you start throwing out bullshit comps, you look like some asshole that says they will always move to Bend. NWCX offered builders lots without commsion, location creates different prices. There may have been a drop, but 60%???

Why anyone would build? Your right they would be a a dumbass, but relax, have some integrity with your stats, this market has not reached panic yet.

Anonymous said...

This weekend would have been the last possible moment for me to get in and start setting up planning a gourmet dinner for a group of wonderful real estate acquaintances.

I spent the entire day at Drake Park collect Geese Droppings.

Then I went up to Shevlin Park and collected two dozen chipmunks.

A few onions, carrots, and magnifinque. A Bend dinner fit for a king.

These are the best of times. Living off the land, no care or worry. No need for money.

Anonymous said...


$150000 NW Crossing lots for sale...bring your own builder
Reply to: hous-447710281@craigslist.org

PigPen Cunt two years ago there was no lot in NWXC for less than $300k. Today vaginal cysts are asking 1/2 that amount, how close to a 60% drop do you need. Take this revelation back to bendbb.

Did bendbb ever find any young boys interested in his old entrepreneur will help young men ad's on craigs?

Anonymous said...

.....my mistake i thought the high was 250k for lot with a view.....i was just asking a queston and i will assume you are right. There has to be some panic considering they only sold 1 of 49 lots to there prefered builders. They were even cheaper for builders-I feel for the guys that are sitting on completed unsolds that bought lots close to 300k. You drive through nwcx and it just stinks of debt and stale listings.

Whats up with the Garner Group selling all the new town homes?

Panic is creeping in.

Anonymous said...

There are an awful lot of new roads anxiously waiting for new houses in NW Crossing.

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