BEND WILL BE BANKRUPT IN 3 YEARS

Sometimes I sit around on a Saturday afternoon getting mildly hammered, and think, "Holy Crap, I got nothing to post tomorrow!". Then I start cycling through the comments left in the previous week, and realize that there's a ton to talk about. So much so, that I can't really narrow it down to one thing, and this is one of those times.

First, we knew the financial shit hit the fan regarding Columbia Air's bankruptcy a few weeks back. I wrote how Columbia was basically a Ponzi scheme doomed to implode, and that if there was a perfect reflection & predictor of Bends future, it was Columbia Air. BendBilboBust wrote:

Cessna say's that 'IF' they become the lowest prevailing bidder, and their low-bid is accepted, over the other higher bids, then they'll keep the staff in Bend.

OK, let me let you in on a little secret. The chances of Textron actually keeping Columbia in Bend FOR REAL, is 0%, with a standard error of +/-5%.

OK, if you are trying scoop up assets at rock-bottom prices, and you are dealing with dumbshit, old boy networking, non-due-diligence butt bangers, like Bend City Council (which is who these statements are aimed at), you start making Totally Unfounded Promises about saving little baby deer, puppies, kitties from ferocious dragons, Snow White kissing a frog that turns into a Prince, keeping Columbia in Bend, and other fairy tales, because you know you are dealing with morons... Morons who actually paid 1,000% markup for odometer-rolled back pieces of shit, and called it a bus system.

Morons who, as Pamela Hulse Andrews stated it with respect to the Juniper Utility Company debacle, "cost the city thousands of dollars in legal fees". Ummm, yes. That is what she said. "Thousands of dollars in legal fees". And she's right. We did pay "thousands" in legal fees. We also paid "hundreds" in legal fees... 140,000 "hundreds". Call me crazy, but given the fact that the city paid MILLIONS in legal fees, AND MILLIONS in interest expenses, would have led to poor, stupid Paul-doh to put it this way: "MILLIONS in legal fees."

And Pamela: On the front page, lower left, under "Departments": it's Business & Industry, not Businss & Industry.

Anyway, back to Textron & Columbia. Textron is making a smart move in dealing with hill billy dumbshits who can barely wipe their ass without a consultant. Note this snippet from todays piece, "Despite growth, some are worried about challenges for manufacturing":

Columbia is one of the area’s top employers, with roughly 400 workers, and last month announced it was planning to sell to Wichita, Kan.-based Cessna Aircraft Co., the world’s largest maker of general aviation airplanes. Columbia also announced it was filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

The announcement worries regional leaders, who fear a larger company could move Columbia out of Central Oregon. Cessna must win a bankruptcy auction to buy Columbia against other bidders, but has said it would keep the company in Bend.

Man, they are playing "regional leaders" like a fiddle. Now listen up Bend City Council dumbshits: Columbia Air will NEVER stay in Bend long-term. There is NO WAY. Textron is doing what any savvy bidder would do: prey on the weaknesses of dumbass locals to try to extract an extra margin a preferential treatment (ie MONEY) from local, regional, state, and/or federal government. It WILL NOT WORK on the state or federal level. Why? These are actually marginally qualified bureaucrats who are quite used to flim flam artists, and Big Government has instituted onerous paperwork requirements that only allow the highest level bullshit artists, like Blackwater, Halliburton, and the like, to actually Get Money.

Textron will not go to that much trouble. Columbia is chickenfeed to them, and not worth the bother. What IS worth the bother is leading local hillbilly dumbasses by the nose into providing spiff after spiff (ie tax breaks, free land, muni-issues) in making Columbia a No Money Down And No Money Ever Deal.

My God, we are going to be led by the nose into providing ridiculous breaks for this company so they can scoop up Columbia For Free... and they will MOVE COLUMBIA TO KANSAS IN LESS THAN A YEAR ANYWAY!

The Old BAIT & SWITCH. The LAVA COURT MOMBO. The Taxpayer Two Step. Bend taxpayers will get HUMPED UNMERCIFUL, and Columbia will leave NO MATTER WHAT WE DO TO KEEP IT. Give Textron $20,000,000 in 0% financing? They leave in 1 year. $10,000,000? 6 months. Tax breaks, free land? 1 month. They don't care about these things. Chickenfeed. Can't be carted up & hauled to Wichita.

There is a hint of just what happens when you run a nice fancy Ponzi scheme like Columbia: Textron has offered $14MM + assumption of $7MM liabilities. The liabilities were almost certainly hand-picked as the most easily disposable from a legal standpoint. Columbia's liabilities stood at $60,000,000 at BK-time.

For every millions bucks Columbia was loaned, they managed to turn it into $230K, or about a -77% return. I've already predicted that as goes Columbia, so goes Bend, and that would mean the ultimate losses of a $1MM McChicken Shack bought at Dead Top in 2006, could ultimately bring $230K. That's a little brutal for Paul-doh's girly constitution, I think we'll only get clocked for -50% top-to-bottom, but -77% from an economic standpoint may be possible: extend a 50% whack out 12-15 years, and you probably looking at a near 80% loss in purchasing power by owning a home in Bend.

And it will be due in part to people like Pamela Hulse Andrews. This pathological lunatic actually believes that by making patently false statements about the heinous fiduciary violations of our city officials, that somehow people can be endlessly duped into buying The Bend Dream. What's stupid is she's been right so far. People do not seem to care that editorial standards in this town revolve around One Thing: Selling Real Estate. Lying to sell Real Estate comes to Andrews like breathing. It's the most natural thing in the World. Classic Ponzi Scheme thinking.

But Ponzi Schemes ALWAYS BUST. Always. It's a simple mathematical proposition. The suckers are ultimately squeezed for every dime, and the House Of Cards implodes. Almost everywhere in this country participated in the Worldwide Real Estate Bubble, but in Bend we fanned the flames like there was no tomorrow. THAT'S ALL THIS PLACE KNOWS HOW TO DO. Man, and we did it to good effect. We got Real Damn Good at it. Fact is, it's our SOLE CORE COMPETENCE. We MARKETED OUR WAY INTO IT, now that it's busting, WE'LL MARKET OUR WAY OUT. Think about it: When the Juniper Ridge backlash became too much to bear, what did Bend City Council want to do? Yes, hire a PR firm.

House on fire? Hire PR firm.

Need groceries? Hire PR firm

I'm an idiot? Hire a PR firm.

Economy going to shit? Hire a PR firm.

Hell, it's not just our core competence, it's our ONLY COMPETENCE. And PR is just about CHANGING PUBLIC PERCEPTIONS. This is also known as LYING, BULL SHITTING, and SPANKING UNCLE DUMBSHIT. Hulse Andrews is The Epitome of this. She owns a little piece of shit rag, and has NO COMPUNCTION about LYING, STRAIGHT UP, to sell real estate.

Hulse Andrews, KTVZ, The Bulletin, Bend City Council: All know absolutely NOTHING except GRIFTING. This is a town of fucking Ponzi grifters, NOTHING MORE. What kind of returns can you expect from a GRIFTER? Well, my own guess is it ranges between -75% and -100%. The Columbia Air Ponzi grifters had not honed their craft very well, and actually left something on the table.

But have no illusions: The Bend Ponzi Grift will end, and when it does we'll be looking at Population Exodus, Economic Implosion, and parts of this place looking like a Ghost Town.

The Duncan Tiff:

Well, Duncan wrote a piece, "You Can't Outsmart A Bubble", which included:

"realize its a bubble and has not reason. Don't try to outsmart it."

I responded with the idea that bubbles DO seem to have some sort of "internal logic" that makes sense to those who are participating. It HAS to. Even if the logic is, "This thing has gone UP 30% a year for 3 years, and committing lots of money will maximize your return because there seems to be No Reason To Believe The Returns Will Slow Down."

OK, this is an argument of OPINION and hence cannot be "Won". You can argue with someone that buying a Bubble Good is a Bad Idea, but you'll have a hell of a time winning if they are already convinced or committed. I know: I had friends buying stocks in 1999, the business of which they had not a single iota of information, but they did have Hot Tips, Rumor, Inside Info From Their Broker, and other priceless tidbits. My attempts to talk about "FACTS" received the Obligatory Eye Roll of someone caught up in Bubble-mania. Comparing buying stocks with buying a car, or hamburger, or something else in which one attempts to maximize the utility of each marginal dollar was met with scoffs of "Irrelevant".

I think Duncan & I fully agree on this thing: It does not make sense to US. But it DOES make sense to THEM. And it will have some sort of predictable characteristics, as all bubble do. From a comment I left on Duncans blog:

Maybe it's just semantics, but you seem to be saying that the "unpredictability" of a bubble makes it impossible to predict, but I think these "unpredictable" characteristics are very predictable... I KNOW it will draw in neophytes, I KNOW it will be cocktail party talk, I KNOW morons will make $ in the runup which draws in more neophytes, I KNOW it will go up farther than I ever thought possible, I KNOW I will not make a cent & stay out, and I KNOW it will end and end badly, far worse than I ever thought.

It IS irrational, it does NOT make sense to me (like any Ponzi scheme), but I think I can outsmart it. If by outsmart, you mean wait for it to implode, as it ALWAYS will. I think Duncan & I were having a little semantical Tempest In A Teapot discussion, in which we both really agree fundamentally, but due to some quirk of existence, we came at our agreement from opposite poles. Like James Gleick saw order in "Chaos": Duncan sees the Chaos, I am seeing the Order, and we are both right.

As I noted earlier, there is a piece in todays Bulletin, "Despite growth, some are worried about challenges for manufacturing". This piece is in essence about The Dreaded Scourge Of Inflation Killing Everything In Sight, something I wrote about ad nauseum, probably to much confusion and guffaws. After all, homes prices going through the roof is a Universal Good, No Lose Proposition, right? See, I OWN A HOME, and hence I am richer... EVERYONE WINS!

Uhhh, no. Well, you DO win for a little bit. Until the economy can adjust to the fact that prices for EVERYTHING have exploded higher. Now if you're in the retraction mode, and are trying to shrink your business, then you really don't care. But if you're expanding because... I don't know... you have a Ponzi Scheme to support, then the demand for the dwindling resources pushes prices to a point where a very slim sliver of SIC code industries can survive; overpriced sushi, time-shares, and the like. Per the Bulletin:

In Bend, a limited supply of industrial land has pushed prices to some of the highest in the state, prompting some manufacturers to shuffle around the High Desert to find more affordable regions to grow. Additionally, Bend’s cost of living strains the work force, pushing many employyees (sic) to commute from cheaper cities and making labor costs rise for the employer.

"Shuffle around"? Yeah, eye-rolling Kool-Aid words for LEAVING BEND. They're not SHUFFLING AROUND... THEY ARE LEAVING BEND. It's this little edge-case bullshit that drives me nuts. "Shuffle around"... like it's fuckin' musical chairs, and that companies are just wandering around without a care in the World, and they might end up in Bend as much as anywhere else when the Music Stops. And the Bullshit never ends:

The key to absorbing any job losses in a changing economy, officials say, is attracting a larger diversity of industries — and pointing out that Central Oregon remains cheaper to manufacture in than other Northwest regions.

Another Kool-Aid Vendor Favorite: Mixing fact, with some sort of Logical Nightmare. YES, diversity is a key to mitigating the loss of some number of jobs. Of course, this town has been managed for the precise OPPOSITE of diversity. Overpriced sushi and time-shares, are 2 of approximately 4 SIC codes that Bend can support. "Illegal street corner vendor", and "Ponzi Scheme Grifter" are the other 2.

Kit plane maker is NOT one of them. Check this HILARIOUS quote by Joseph Bartels, owner of Lancair:

“I’m worried that one day somebody is going to end up offering me so much money (to relocate the company) that I would be an absolute fool not to take it,” Bartels said last week, acknowledging that a town in Colorado is courting his company. “I love Oregon, but am discouraged that no economic-retention organization has been sufficient enough to … keep organizations like Lancair here.”

He's "WORRIED" about being offered a BOATLOAD of money, to relocate out of Bend. If you can say one thing about Bend's Ponzi Scheme Grifters, it's Them Mother Fuckers Learn Fast! Bartels saw Textron pulling the Bait & Switch Butt Banger Special Grift with Columbia, and IMMEDIATELY hopped on board. It involves a GRIFTER, a pack of DUMBSHITS (Bend City Council), and a worthless old NAG (Columbia Air, Lancair, or whatever the hell the grifter owns). The grift is as follows: Grifter approaches Dumbshits, tells them he'll pack up his worthless old nag and leave, said nag having liberal amounts of lipstick and a tutu for hornying up the hillbillies, if the Dumbshits do not give him The Cash. And like a 14 year old boy paying to be alone with a sheep, the money flows like water. THE GRIFTERS ARE TURNING ON EACH OTHER, cuz there ain't no more NEW MEAT. Here's Roger Lee's (EDCO Chief Grifter) attempt to grift the State of Oregon:

Roger Lee, executive director of Economic Development for Central Oregon, admits other areas of the country have more attractive incentives for certain industries than Central Oregon. For example, parts of the Midwest offer breaks on property taxes and other cash incentives for businesses in the aerospace industry, he said. Oregon’s incentives are primarily geared toward attracting tech companies, Lee said, and any change to that must come at the state level.

"State level"? Translation: "Bend has expended every nickel grifting (PR MARKETING) Cali-spankers and we are essentially broke. If the grift is going to continue, we'll need state money." And the flawed logic rolls on:

Bend’s industrial land may be pricey, he said, but the region still is more affordable than larger metropolitan areas, notably California. For example, the region’s employment costs, workers’ compensation rates, and sales and property taxes are lower than some neighboring states.

OK, dumbshits, here's where Paul-doh teaches you EVERYTHING YOU'LL EVER KNOW ABOUT ECONOMICS (safe to say, cuz Bend Officials know NOTHING): California has JOBS. When you're a fuckin' grifter, this is like talking about alien life on another planet, it doesn't compute. California is not primarily a Grifting-based Ponzi Scheme Economy like Bend. California has INCOME SUPPORTED PRICES. We have HOT AIR, PR-GRIFTING SUPPORTED PRICES. That's the difference.

This piece is essentially chronicling what happens when a scam unwinds. When the fungible goo of The Grift is gone, just like a ghost town, everyone leaves. What did we do with the MASSIVE money flows from Bubble-times? We doubled down on red, AGAIN. We have done EVERTHING IMAGINABLE to make Bend as UNATTRACTIVE as possible to Business, and by extension Good Paying Jobs. NO ONE will relocate to Bend. Everyone here is leaving. THAT'S what this piece is about.

Grifters need a MARK. Without a Mark, the grifter is DEAD. The inbound Mark is no longer succumbing to our PR bullshit, so we are starting to feed on each other: Lancair is pulling The Short Con on The Mark (Bend City Councilors) because they are proving to be The Biggest Idiots for 1,000 square miles. And man, are they some Obligingly Stupid Marks. They seem to actually WANT TO GET CONNED. Lava Court ring a bell? Linda Johnson actually CHEERED The Pigeon Drop Con put over on the city! These people are actually grifters who are using other peoples money (taxpayers) to enrich their fellow CON MAN!

Well shit, this post didn't end up like I planned! Thought it'd be a hodge-podge of stuff, but I guess when Paul-doh's panties get in a bunch over the heinous mismanagement of this place... well, The Rant takes over. Just realize folks, that this place is still PACKED with grifters pulling The Long Con on us: Mercato, The Plaza, untold subdivided 5ac plots going for MILLIONS, land-giveaways, tax subsidies... these are ALL people trying to pull The Big Score, and the victims are US. Lowlife Bend taxpaying schlubs who will have to foot ALL THESE BILLS. And like day follows night, there is ONE and only ONE OUTCOME:

BEND WILL BE BANKRUPT IN 3 YEARS

Addendum:

Oy, I NEVER add on to the "Original" post, but cannot resist: There's a piece in yesterdays Bulletin, "ADA compliance: Cost is in the details -- Bend, behind on the work, says there are few contractors bidding for the high-priced precision changes the government is requiring".

What's great about this piece, besides the endless rationzalizing about Why We Are Overcharged For Every Single Construction Project (ummm... incompetence, graft, etc), is the actual extent to which taxpayers are RIPPED OFF in dollars & cents:

The cost issue does not appear to be letting up, as work to improve bus stops is now averaging about $20,000 per stop. Officials earlier this summer said they expected to be able to fix many bus stops for about $1,500 each.

McNichols Products, a national company with offices in Portland, sells complete 40-foot-long slotted drain kits for about $1,500.

Wilson’s bid — which includes labor costs — charged $8,525 for the job.

Similarly, Traffic Safety Supply Co. in Portland sells 2-by-5-foot bumpy yellow mats, known as detectable warning mats, for $175 each. The amount needed for the parking spaces would have cost about $1,050.

The line for that item on Wilson Curb’s bid — which also included labor — was $5,040.

The invoice charges a total of $300 for material and labor to install four concrete wheel stops, two for each space. Central Oregon Redi-Mix sells the stops for $25 apiece.

So rough estimates put Bend City Council WASTE near 85-90%. What does DESIGNER and Bend City Councilor Peter Gramlich think we should do?

Another source of added costs is the outside consultants the city uses for much of the ADA-related design work.

“Us constantly outsourcing design to consultants is the epitome of inefficiency on this,” Councilor Peter Gramlich, who is a home designer, said Wednesday.

Gramlich and other councilors urged city staff to start doing more design work themselves, even if it means creating new positions.

It never ends. When you are pulling The Long Con, you got to take every opportunity to suckerfish whatever shark it is you're attached to. Gramlich literally can't help himself from touting the "Push it on city staff... who will ultimately have to outsource it to ME as a consultant" macro-scam. Don't think so?

If you do not know who the Mark is, YOU ARE THE FUCKIN' MARK!