Sunday, September 27, 2009

The Incredibly Stupid Hulce

OK, I'll make this a quickie...

I finally read the "editorial" piece by The Incredible Hulce. It's rolling along in acceptable fashion, cataloging past headlines from years gone by, until the final 2 paragraphs. Then she just completely blows up:

And here we are today, same issues, some different faces. But the economy still sucks and Bill Watkins, executive director of Center for Economic Research and Forecasting at Cal-Lutheran, says he doesn’t believe that sustained growth will occur any time soon. He said we may see small positive growth this quarter and the media will declare the recession over. However, the stimulus plan is not working. Government spending does not improve the productivity of private capital. Banks are still not lending. Houses, especially in Central Oregon, are selling for less than you can build them.

That said, we end this editorial with this: go ahead and declare the recession over. It’s not likely that there’s anything more that we can do to help the economy than to believe that it’s getting better and continue to operate our businesses lean and efficient and hold out for a recovery to eventually happen. If our community can lift itself up from the gloom and find some light even in the smallest of economic improvements, then that’s a very good thing. Let’s get this party started.


So everyone, including her hand-picked schmucks from some obscure-ass loser church-related global forecasting basement says that the shit is hitting the fan, and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

But Hulce, in her infinite wisdom, says "Let's get this party started"? Oh my God.

If our community can lift itself up from the gloom and find some light even in the smallest of economic improvements, then that’s a very good thing.

Really? So if we just click our heels together, we'll get back to Kansas... right?

This is Standard Issue Marketing Bullshit. That if you bullshit people enough, they'll start to believe anything.

But the real disturbing part of this, is the "Let's get this party started" bit. I mean, My God. Who talks like that? 85 year old white women trying to be "ghetto"?

And what's really wonderful, is that there is implied in statements like that, that The Bubble CAN, WILL, AND SHOULD get going again.

The PARTY was THE REAL ESTATE BUBBLE. And Hulce thinks the best medicine is to get it going again.

THIS is the reason Bend is doomed. There's a mentality there that isn't right. It's much like that of an alcoholic or chronic drug user: If I can just get the good feelings going again I had during the "high times", I'll be good, everything will be fine.

There are a lot of people in Cent OR who will be jonesing for a fix that never comes. "The party" is NEVER going to start again here. EVER. Well, not in my lifetime.

You've got to understand what is really happening to see why.

This is The Big Unwind.

We have made TRILLIONS in loans that will never be repaid. THAT was "The party". The seemingly unending river of credit which was used for almost everything from buying houses to paying off the old lines of credit so we could borrow anew, was "The party". The borrowing of a bit more to make payments on the old borrowings was when things started getting really dicey.

There was no more "party" at that point. Hulcey-mindset borrowers and others just started borrowing "to feel normal". This is where the drug & alcohol use is only hitting the "flatline" high... just feeling OK. Increased use, as always, is required to get "high" again.

And so you begin a spiralling vicious circle that can do nothing but end badly.

And so it has.

And Hulce wants us to ALL GET HIGH AGAIN... NOT finish rehab. The best way to handle what's happened, according to the Incredible Hulce, is we get a good shot of that what ails us, NOT quit cold turkey.

But what's just precious is THERE IS NO MORE, Hulce. That was it. We're in The Big Unwind. We're through.

So, I guess I will explain what is going to happen over the next several years, primarily for the benefit of dumbfucks like Hulce, in terms of what has already happened. And I'll try to make it painless & quick.

OK, our banking system is based on the Fractional Reserve System. If you ever had any sort of rudimentary finance classes, it's east to figure out: Let's say you deposit $100 in the local shithole collapsing bank, CACB. OK, they make money by loaning it out, but not all of it, more like $90. From wikipedia:

Central banks generally mandate reserve requirements that require banks to keep a minimum fraction of their demand deposits as cash reserves. This both limits the amount of money creation that occurs in the commercial banking system, and ensures that banks have enough ready cash to meet normal demand for withdrawals. Problems can arise, however, when a large number of depositors seek withdrawal of their deposits; this can cause a bank run or, when problems are extreme and widespread, a systemic crisis.

To mitigate these problems, central banks (or other government institutions) generally regulate and oversee commercial banks, act as lender of last resort to commercial banks, and also insure the deposits of the commercial banks' customers.


Really, those paragraphs embody a lot of info. There HAS TO BE reserve requirements, or else money creation is theoretically INFINITE (infinite inflation), and BANK RUNS can happen with ease. Imagine you have lent out all of that $100 deposit, if the person even writes a check for $1, you can't deliver.

Now, the "systemic crisis" part is what you should really be focusing on, because that is exactly what has happened.

If you read the wikipedia article in it's entirety (and you should), you'll see there is a very direct correlation between banking reserve requirements, and money creation. There is a very simple example with 20% reserve requirements which leads to a money creation multiplier of almost 5.

So the inverse of the reserve requirement is the money multiplier: 1 / .2 = 5.

You can see the actual reserve requirements for US banks here. It's a tiered system, but on all decent sized banks, it's about 10%. So the multiplier is about 10, but in actuality it is slightly lower due to other factors

Now, this system works great and can be actually used to spur spending by the Fed buying and selling a relatively small amount of bank-held securities, like government debt, some of which is always on the books of banks as "cash".

But there's something "Golden" about that 10% reserve number. It represents the amount beyond which losses become a vicious cycle of contraction vs it's usual virtuous circle of prosperity.

Once you loan losses go beyond 10%, you are pretty much fucked. Even if your losses approach 10% of your loan portfolio, you are in some deep shit. Because your depositors CANNOT get their DEMAND DEPOSITS. You are broke and cannot pay them.

You're in some Big Shit at that point.

Now, typically this sort of thing is a localized phenomenon. Big local business goes down, or some regional butter-fuck hits the local economy, like oil in the 80's or S&L commercial lending. And the shit goes down hard.

But this time it is WILDLY different.

The ENTIRE American housing base is down WAY over 10%. Commercial is down over 10%. THOSE 2 things represent TRILLIONS in loans.

The entire collateralized base of the American banking system is DOWN beyond the reserve point. This is the point where the "systemic crisis" begins.

The banks ARE NOT LOANING, not because they don't want to, but they can't. Even with the TRILLIONS flooding the system, the ENTIRE US BANKING SYSTEM IS STILL INSOLVENT. THAT is the problem. That is why we cannot "Get this party started".

We have gone WELL BEYOND the point of utter collapse. And the government response was really all it could be: FLOOD THE SYSTEM WITH TRILLIONS.

Because, you see, we have an entire banking system whose demand deposits are, say $10 trillion. But the loans and other securities that we have to pay each other off, are only $7 trillion. The gov't hawks were right: If we all tried to Get Our Money, the US banking system would have ceased to exist. Every single bank in the US would have to close.

So the governments only choice was to flood us with trillions.

But now the problem shifts from "I want my money" to "I want this economy to grow", and there my friends we are well & truly fucked. Because growth relies on money, and money comes and goes with the whim & weft of confidence in the fractional reserve banking system itself.

10% reserve requirements were NOT ENOUGH to avert one of the greatest crises in 100 years. So what do we do?

Lower it, as advocated by Hulce? THAT actually ENSURES it will happen again!

Or raise it? THAT actually ensures a TERRIBLE SLOWDOWN, by collapsing the lifeblood of our economy, money. A 20% reserve requirement would throw us right into a depression.

Even leaving it where it is portends that what we face today will happen again.

Fucking rock and a hard place, that is.

And so those are The Real Choices: Lower our reserve requirements to "Get the party started", but have an even more fragile banking system that will succumb to destruction almost instantly. Or raise reserve requirements, and face the prospect of a near-immediate and crushing depression, but a banking system that can in the far-future probably sustain almost any economic slowdown... once it stabilizes.

Or leave it as-is... and face a scenario that is a little of column A, and a little of column B.

Which is what we'll do.

So there will be no real growth in the next decade or so. And government will have to be on-call to forestall collapse for the foreseeable future. We will be in high-wire mode for at least 10 years, with even the slightest disturbance threatening our very existence.

Which is what will happen. We will be in low-or-no growth mode for 10 years, and banks will continue to fail. For years.

Look to Japan to see what happens. Moribund growth that never seems to take off.

When will it take off? When loan losses are so crushed that what actually remains is solid. And loan volume actually begins to exceed deposit growth, and money is created again. The Great Unwind ends when banks stop calling in loans (to pay depositors or "reserve" up), and actually start to lend again, which only happens AFTER we hit rock bottom, and they KNOW that their loans are solid, and repayment is assured. We aren't even close to that. AND THAT, my friends, is WHY banks are not loaning. They have raised their OWN implicit reserve requirements to SURVIVE.

It bears pointing out that I am not one of those psycho, Anarchy-types that believes the best thing is ZERO LOANS, and eating of home-grown beans & tomatoes. Well, I'm closer to that than many people I know, but I do believe there is a place for the modern banking system.

But I also acknowledge that this system can and will cause it's own implosions by it's very nature. And it's near collapse is what we are witnessing now. It makes the peaks and valley's higher & lower. But it does have it's merits.

But when it is systemically participates in a bubble, it literally ensures it's own destruction. There's really nothing else that can happen. And the bigger the bubble, the bigger the collapse IN PROPORTION to the leverage (financial crack-meth) used to create it.

And the leverage used to create our current debacle was almost infinite, because not only were banks going "off balance sheet" to create more money, the amount going into homes as downpayments was LESS THAN ZERO. People would actually get money at closing via all kinds of schemes, namely liar-loan fraud, appraisal fraud, and just about anything else they could get away with... ask Tammy Sawyer.

So our REAL reserve rate was far, FAR less than the OFFICIAL RATE of 10%. It was probably down around 0%, which means 2 things: Incredible fragility and the magnitude of the collapse will be unbelievable.

And THAT is where we are.
That there is GRILFY hotness, hbm.
Damn, I need to get laid.
Ahhhhh, the chubby quasi-pregger MILF. Is there anything better?

253 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 253   Newer›   Newest»
IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Please, for the love of all that is decent in the World... maybe read this post, then immediately go OUTSIDE and enjoy the weather.

It ain't gonna last! Phil's, Tumalo Falls, the lakes... anything.

I had one of the best days of my life yesterday with my kids. It was incredible.

Marge said...

Hulce, what part of the, PARTY IS OVER, don't you get.
With RE sales holding in the low 100 a month and median prices going down as well as 250 NOD's a month. We are truly one of the most doomed areas of the country. Remember, we still lag our feeder markets by 18 months. As Butter said, we are truly fucked. You just don't accept it yet. Party, Huh?
Some local RE stats:
to date in Sept. : 89 sold @$191k median.
Historical Sept. medians:
08-$276k
08-$332k
06-$380k
05-$302k
We have past any peaks for this year on price or number of sales. This will be another long winter for RE types and sellers. We are looking more like 2002 at $184k medians.
You can't start a party with over 20% real unemployment either.

Enjoy the weather today as it's winter soon.

Butter, you really should have a few extra beans for your butter stashed away.

blackdog said...

Couldn't agree more about Hulce's asinine comments. But then again, boosterism is her business; she's got to have her smiley-face pasted on at all times. She's not in the business of telling people the truth; she's in the business of telling them what they want to hear. (The Bulletin often seems to think it's in the same business.)

Re the weather: Yes, this is the best time of year in our beloved Paradise-on-the-Deschutes. If we're lucky it will last through October. But on Halloween ... WHAM, the steel curtain of winter slams down, not to lift again until June.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


Butter, you really should have a few extra beans for your butter stashed away.


Dearest, lovely marge... I do have a few beans stashed away. I have been squirreling away what I can for several years now.

And thanks so much for the stats.

We're at near-2003 levels... freaky. I wonder when we'll sink into the Good Times of the roaring 90's?

blackdog said...

Speaking of weather, I've heard a couple of the local weathercasters recently promising us we'll soon have "relief from the heat."

Heat??? WHAT heat???

80 degrees is not "hot," people. 90, 95, 100, 105 -- THAT's hot.

Did all these people grow up in Antarctica, fer cripe's sake?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

More Cash 4 Crushers bashing:

Chevy, Ford, Aston Martin: Not all clunkers were junkers

The most popular clunker was the Ford Explorer, with 69,887 copies turned in, accounting for roughly 10 percent of the trade-ins under the program. Under federal law, only vehicles built after 1984 were eligible for the program, and the trade-in rules favored trucks over cars to spur the removal of less efficient models.

Backers of the program have credited it with snapping the U.S. auto industry out of its worst slump in decades and bringing factory workers back on the job as automakers ramp production and spurring sales of fuel-efficient models.

President Obama's Council of Economic Advisors estimated last month that the program saved or created 21,000 jobs and boosted the national economy in the third quarter.

But several economists have questioned those claims, contending that the clunkers had a value to society that has to be added into the program's costs. Burton Abrams and George R. Parsons, professors at the University of Delaware, said in a study published Tuesday that the clunker program likely cost the country $2,600 per vehicle while producing benefits worth only $596 per trade - leaving a gap of about $2,000 on every clunker.

Abrams and Parsons said all of the program's benefits derived from burning less fuel, and any increase in auto production or employment were a transfer of wealth rather than real economic growth.

Clunkers "gives participants a substantial gift," they said. "Meanwhile the burden of the program is dispersed over a large group of taxpayers. Concentrated benefits create vocal advocates while diffused costs produce silent apathetic opponents."

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Welcome to AmeriKKKa!

Concentrated benefits create vocal advocates while diffused costs produce silent apathetic opponents.

Anonymous said...

The bubble is over and it ain't comin' back. The marketplace got fat on the Kool Aid of too much easy and unregulated money and now that its gone people have to learn to live on what they can really afford, not pie in the sky financial dreams. Or as I like to say "welcome to reality, enjoy your stay".

Anonymous said...

Bend is bleeding jobs, probably around 200-300 a month. By spring, we will have another thousand out of work.
Can this area sustain those kind of downturns? Won't city revenues drop off a lot?

Anonymous said...

Don't worry tonight I have figured out how to turn shit into food.

We'll all survive just fine in Bend.

Anonymous said...

Blackdog was picked up last night running off leash in Drake Park by Animal Control.

If nobody claims him in 72 hours he'll be euthanized.

His owner a Mr. Buster said that 'blackdog' was a truffle dog, funny the only truffles I ever see at Drake is the geese shit. Mr. Buster was also arrested for indecent exposure to a police officer.

Anonymous said...

Good rant this week Homeboy....poor selection of titties though.

PopGoesBend said...

Graph of % of total homes sold in Bend during the previous 12 month period.

http://tinyurl.com/yde6b5e

We are currently selling more than the pre-bubble norm.

blackdog said...

This just in ...

"WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. Secret Service is investigating an online survey that asked whether people thought President Barack Obama should be assassinated.

"The poll, posted Saturday on Facebook, was taken off the popular social networking site quickly after company officials were alerted to its existence. But, like any threat against the president, Secret Service agents are taking no chances.

"The poll asked respondents "Should Obama be killed?" The choices: No, Maybe, Yes, and Yes if he cuts my health care.

"Facebook says the question was not created by the company, but by an independent person using an add-on application that has been suspended from the site."

According to other accounts Facebook took the poll down only after being told to do so by the Secret Service.

When the Secret Service locates the asshole who put that poll up he gonna have a LOT of 'splaining to do. Maybe some ENHANCED INTERROGATION techniques are called for.

And then we have the lynching of that census worker by some harelipped hillbillies down in Kentucky earlier this month.

This country is getting just too fucking crazy to live in.

Anonymous said...

There are a lot of people in Eastern Oregon who are actualy afraid of the outside world.
Most of them have never been outside of the state, but they 'know all about it" anyway.

Anonymous said...

I'm from the US Federal government, and I'm here to help you.

I will not cum in your mouth.

The check is in the mail.

BendBB has adopted 'black-dog'.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
There are a lot of people in Eastern Oregon who are actualy afraid of the outside world.
Most of them have never been outside of the state, but they 'know all about it" anyway.


+++++

That's fuckin stupid. What's your point? There are people living in Detroit that are afraid of the outside world. That little old lady that lives next door to you is probably afraid of the outside world. There are times when I can very well see their point!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

US income gap widens as poor take hit in recession

Census data show a widening income gap in US as poor people take bigger hit in recession

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The recession has hit middle-income and poor families hardest, widening the economic gap between the richest and poorest Americans as rippling job layoffs ravaged household budgets.

The wealthiest 10 percent of Americans -- those making more than $138,000 each year -- earned 11.4 times the roughly $12,000 made by those living near or below the poverty line in 2008, according to newly released census figures. That ratio was an increase from 11.2 in 2007 and the previous high of 11.22 in 2003.

Household income declined across all groups, but at sharper percentage levels for middle-income and poor Americans. Median income fell last year from $52,163 to $50,303, wiping out a decade's worth of gains to hit the lowest level since 1997.

Poverty jumped sharply to 13.2 percent, an 11-year high.

"No one should be surprised at the increased disparity," said Richard Freeman, an economist at Harvard University. "Unemployment hurts normal workers who do not have the golden parachutes the folks at the top have."

Analysts attributed the widening gap to the wave of layoffs in the economic downturn that have devastated household budgets. They said while the richest Americans may be seeing reductions in executive pay, those at the bottom of the income ladder are often unemployed and struggling to get by.

Large cities such as Atlanta, Washington, New York, San Francisco, Miami and Chicago had the most inequality, due largely to years of middle-class flight to the suburbs. Declining industrial cities with pockets of well-off neighborhoods, such as Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Buffalo, N.Y., also had sharp disparities.

Up-and-coming cities with growing middle-class populations, such as Mesa, Ariz., Riverside, Calif., Arlington, Texas, and Henderson, Nev., were among the areas showing the least income differences between rich and poor.

It's unclear whether income inequality will continue to worsen in major cities, said William H. Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution. Many Americans are staying put for now in traditional cities to look for jobs and because of frozen lines of credit.

"During the years of the housing bubble, there was middle-class movement from unaffordable metros with high-income inequality," Frey said. "Now that the bubble burst, more of the population may be headed back to the high-inequality areas, stemming their middle-class losses."




CONT...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Among other findings:

--Income at the top 5 percent of households -- those making $180,000 or more -- was 3.58 times the median income, the highest since 2006.

--Twenty-one states and the District of Columbia had higher poverty rates than the national average, many of them in the South, such as Mississippi (21.2 percent), Kentucky, Arkansas and Louisiana (each with 17.3 percent). That's compared with 19 states and the District of Columbia that ranked above U.S. poverty in 2007.

--Use of food stamps jumped 13 percent last year to nearly 9.8 million U.S. households, led by Louisiana, Maine and Kentucky. The increase was most evident in households with two or more workers, highlighting the impact of the recession on both working families and unemployed single people.

--Pharr, Texas, and Flint, Mich., each had more than a third of its residents on food stamps, at 38.5 percent and 35.4 percent, respectively.

--Between 2007 and 2008, income at the 50th percentile (median) and the 10th percentile fell by 3.6 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively, compared with a 2.1 percent decline at the 90th percentile. Between 1999 and 2008, income at the 50th and 10th percentiles decreased 4.3 percent and 9 percent, respectively, while income at the 90th percentile was statistically unchanged.

--Plano, Texas, a Dallas suburb, had the highest median income among larger cities, earning $85,003. Cleveland ranked at the bottom, at $26,731.

The findings come as the federal government considers new regulations to rein in executive pay at companies in which it has invested. President Barack Obama also typically cites the need for higher taxes on the wealthy to pay for health care overhaul and other measures, arguing that the wealthy have disproportionately benefited from tax cuts during the Bush administration.

The 2008 figures come from the Current Population Survey and the American Community Survey, which gathers information from 3 million households. The government first began tracking household income in 1967.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

FDIC expected to ask banks to prepay $36B in fees
FDIC likely will require banks to prepay $36 billion fees to replenish deposit insurance fund

By Marcy Gordon, AP Business Writer
Tuesday September 29, 2009, 6:24 am EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Looking to shore up the diminishing fund that insures bank deposits, the FDIC may take the unprecedented step of requiring banks to prepay three years' worth of premiums: about $36 billion.

The insurance fund has been sapped by billions from a rash of bank failures that began in mid-2008. The board of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. likely will call for "prepaid" bank insurance premiums at its public meeting Tuesday to discuss the issue, three industry executives and a government official said. The banking industry prefers that option over a special emergency fee -- which would be the second this year.

The executives and the official spoke on condition of anonymity Monday because the decision had yet to be made public.

It would be the first time the FDIC has required prepaid insurance fees. Under the plan, banks would have to pay in advance their insurance premiums for 2010-2012, bringing in about $12 billion for each of the three years, two of the executives said. That is the normal amount of insurance fees, though it could vary somewhat according to growth in total insured deposits -- the basis for determining the fees.

Off the table, at least for now, are the options of tapping the agency's $500 billion credit line with the Treasury Department and the agency borrowing billions of dollars from healthy banks by issuing its own debt, the industry executives and the government official said.

A spokesman for the FDIC declined to comment Monday afternoon.

FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said earlier this month that she was "considering all options, including borrowing from Treasury," to replenish the insurance fund. Yet she is generally perceived as considering that the most unpalatable approach.

Borrowing from the Treasury could create the undesirable impression of another taxpayer-financed bailout, while borrowing from the banks might make the FDIC look as if it were beholden to the banking industry, experts say.

Ninety-five banks have failed so far this year as losses have mounted on commercial real estate and other soured loans amid the most severe financial climate in decades. The insurance fund fell 20 percent to $10.4 billion at the end of June, its lowest point since 1992, at the height of the savings-and-loan crisis. The fund has now slipped to 0.22 percent of insured deposits, below a congressionally mandated minimum of 1.15 percent.


CONT...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Some analysts expect hundreds more banks to fail in the coming years and the FDIC forecasts the fund will need $70 billion through 2013 to deal with those losses. But the FDIC is fully backed by the government, which means depositors' money is guaranteed up to $250,000 per account.

Besides the prepayment plan, the agency could still later propose an emergency assessment, or a transfer of cash collected in fees from the FDIC's temporary rescue program that guarantees hundreds of billions of dollars of debt that banks issue to each other. The agency has collected about $9 billion in fees from banks issuing debt under the program, and $596.7 million of it already has gone into the deposit insurance fund.

The first emergency fee, which took effect June 30, brought in around $5.6 billion. Another one would allow the healthiest banks to keep more capital for investment, but could drive weaker banks toward failure, further depleting the insurance fund.

"I think they will continue to levy (emergency) assessments on an ad hoc basis," said Bert Ely, a banking industry consultant in Alexandria, Va.

Bair acknowledged earlier this month that the agency did not want to "stress the industry too much at this time, when they're still in the process of recovery." U.S. Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan, who with Bair is a member of the FDIC board, has said another emergency levy "could cause more stressful conditions."

"We're pleased that they're looking at alternatives to another special assessment," said Karen Thomas, executive vice president of government relations at the Independent Community Bankers of America.

In addition to the insurance fund, the FDIC has about $21 billion in cash available in reserve to cover losses at failed banks, down from $25 billion at the end of the first quarter. The independent agency likely wouldn't consider tapping its credit line at the Treasury unless that cash were depleted, FDIC officials have said.

Anonymous said...

Gloom and doom for Butter:

http://tinyurl.com/yecre5n





Re: widening income gap


Fox News: Opiate of the dumb masses. Where they will tell you how to get to a tea party to yell about that muslim nigger taking your freedoms.

Just listen to Glenn, and all will be clear. Go buy his new book, Arguing With Idiots--it will tell you everything you need to know. Just trust him. He quit drinking and became a Mormon, so he must be smart.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The fund has now slipped to 0.22 percent of insured deposits, below a congressionally mandated minimum of 1.15 percent.

ie: technically broke.

So they are collecting 3 YEARS worth of premiums to pay todays BUSTED BANKS. A move that actually will put enough banks under to wipe out the 3 yearsof premiums they are collecting, and bust the FDIC anyway.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Gloom and doom for Butter:

Damn dude... glad to know I'm not the only nut-job up at 4:18AM...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

So it was on Sept 1 that CACB got their Cease & Desist.

Most banks last about 4-6 weeks after that.

Anyone betting CACB gets a Sheila BEAR HUG this Friday?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

http://tinyurl.com/yecre5n

Dude, that is hilarious!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

CACB Investors... REJOICE!

Returns:
10 years: -76%
5 years: -92%
1 year: -87%
6 months: -36%
3 months: -9%
1 month: -10%

Yeah... I'm betting this Friday on that BEAR HUG.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Case-Schiller out today...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Where Home Prices Are Likely To Rise

But the numbers are useful for sketching out the potential shape of a recovery, and many experts agree with Moody's outlook.

"Recent trends show a slowing of declining prices and the formation of a bottom," says Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School. But she stops short of heralding a new real estate boom. "The big picture here is that there's no rebound. I think it is in fact far more likely that we will see an L-shaped outcome."

Anonymous said...

the FDIC may take the unprecedented step of requiring banks to prepay three years' worth of premiums: about $36 billion.

*

Yep, 'pay-to-play', if you want to be a banker, Moss doesn't have a fucking chance to play.

The Atlanta bank shutdown last week had a non-performing loan ration of 5%, Moss is pushing almost 10%.

You have the case here of fuck-ups that are un-fathomable, I think the fear I'm hearing is a house of cards falling here in Bend, what I'm hearing from the higher up's is that when CACB goes down there will be a ripple effect to all regional banks, which means the Nationals will also quit making loans in this region.

So how fucked? Like we all say here, the worst will be about 2012, and if you think its bad now, ... just wait.

Anonymous said...

Thank god OR-BUSH-EO will bomb Pakistan & Iran and solve Bend's problems.

For a REAL fucking bitch-slap on OR-BUSH-EO ( was OR-BOMB-EO ) read this weeks rich in NY-TIMES called "Obama on a Precipice", Fucking hard-core truth coming from a liberal and liberal paper. About 8 pages, so I don't expect any pussy's to read, great material for those willing to open their fucking minds to the most fucked up mess in two generations.

Anonymous said...

The good weather is over, rain today and future.

HBowelMovement weather is now here, Bend-Winter, frozen-fog-smog, cold and no more sunshine, ... hope you enjoyed our 100 days of sunshine. I think there will be 5X wood burning this season so our smog-fog should be very nice, sort of like the smoke yesterday, but all winter.

I think that 10 posts on sunday for home was a record but then that was an awesome day, now with the weather going to shit the nerds will return to their keyboards.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Case Schiller is out for July

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index fell 13.3 percent in July from a year earlier, the smallest drop in 17 months, the group said today in New York. Adjusted for seasonal variations, the gauge rose 1.2 percent from the prior month, the biggest gain since October 2005.

Anonymous said...

Consumer confidence is down...

...And that was unexpected?

Anonymous said...

Obama will be a one term president.

If he pulls out of Afganistan, he will be viewed as weak.

If he increases troop level, he will loose a lot of supporters who thinks he is a "peace" president.

Either way, he looses.

Bewert said...

Just did a post about the CACB C&D (with link to actual doc) over at http://bend-gazette.blogspot.com/

I like this line:

"1. The Bank shall have and retain qualified management.
(a) Each member of management shall have qualifications and experience commensurate with his or her duties at the Bank."

What's going to be tough is the writedown provisions. They had 30 days to charge off all loans classified as "Loss" and half of those classified as "Doubtful".

And the part about reducing "Substandard" and "Doubtful" assets to not more than 75% of capital is troubling as well.

Interesting times for Bends flagship.

Anonymous said...

It's Pakistan that's crucial. If Pakistan falls to the radicals, Al Qaeda could have access to nukes. If Obama pulls out of Afghanistan, he's going to have to have a good story on dealing with Pakistan.

Anonymous said...

The good weather is over, rain today and future.

Sweet, I am tired of the heat. Bring on winter!

Bewert said...

Good catch by Buster:

Obama at the Precipice

By FRANK RICH
Published: September 26, 2009

THE most intriguing, and possibly most fateful, news of last week could not be found in the health care horse-trading in Congress, or in the international zoo at the United Nations, or in the Iran slapdown in Pittsburgh. It was an item tucked into a blog at ABCNews.com. George Stephanopoulos reported that the new “must-read book” for President Obama’s war team is “Lessons in Disaster” by Gordon M. Goldstein, a foreign-policy scholar who had collaborated with McGeorge Bundy, the Kennedy-Johnson national security adviser, on writing a Robert McNamara-style mea culpa about his role as an architect of the Vietnam War.

Bundy left his memoir unfinished at his death in 1996. Goldstein’s book, drawn from Bundy’s ruminations and deep new research, is full of fresh information on how the best and the brightest led America into the fiasco. “Lessons in Disaster” caused only a modest stir when published in November, but The Times Book Review cheered it as “an extraordinary cautionary tale for all Americans.” The reviewer was, of all people, the diplomat Richard Holbrooke, whose career began in Vietnam and who would later be charged with the Afghanistan-Pakistan crisis by the new Obama administration.

Holbrooke’s verdict on “Lessons in Disaster” was not only correct but more prescient than even he could have imagined. This book’s intimate account of White House decision-making is almost literally being replayed in Washington (with Holbrooke himself as a principal actor) as the new president sets a course for the war in Afghanistan. The time for all Americans to catch up with this extraordinary cautionary tale is now.

Analogies between Vietnam and Afghanistan are the rage these days. Some are wrong, inexact or speculative. We don’t know whether Afghanistan would be a quagmire, let alone that it could remotely bulk up to the war in Vietnam, which, at its peak, involved 535,000 American troops. But what happened after L.B.J. Americanized the war in 1965 is Vietnam’s apocalyptic climax. What’s most relevant to our moment is the war’s and Goldstein’s first chapter, set in 1961. That’s where we see the hawkish young President Kennedy wrestling with Vietnam during his first months in office.

The remarkable parallels to 2009 became clear last week, when the Obama administration’s internal conflicts about Afghanistan spilled onto the front page. On Monday The Washington Post published Bob Woodward’s account of a confidential assessment by the top United States and NATO commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, warning that there could be “mission failure” if more troops aren’t added in the next 12 months. In Wednesday’s Times White House officials implicitly pushed back against the leak of McChrystal’s report by saying that the president is “exploring alternatives to a major troop increase in Afghanistan.”

As Goldstein said to me last week, it’s “eerie” how closely even these political maneuvers track those of a half-century ago, when J.F.K. was weighing whether to send combat troops to Vietnam. Military leaders lobbied for their new mission by planting leaks in the press. Kennedy fired back by authorizing his own leaks, which, like Obama’s, indicated his reservations about whether American combat forces could turn a counterinsurgency strategy into a winnable war.

Within Kennedy’s administration, most supported the Joint Chiefs’ repeated call for combat troops, including the secretaries of defense (McNamara) and state (Dean Rusk) and Gen. Maxwell Taylor, the president’s special military adviser. The highest-ranking dissenter was George Ball, the undersecretary of state. Mindful of the French folly in Vietnam, he predicted that “within five years we’ll have 300,000 men in the paddies and jungles and never find them again.” In the current administration’s internal Afghanistan debate, Goldstein observes, Joe Biden uncannily echoes Ball’s dissenting role.

Bewert said...

(cont.)

Though Kennedy was outnumbered in his own White House — and though he had once called Vietnam “the cornerstone of the free world in Southeast Asia” — he ultimately refused to authorize combat troops. He instead limited America’s military role to advisory missions. That policy, set in November 1961, would only be reversed, to tragic ends, after his death. As Bundy wrote in a memo that year, the new president had learned the hard way, from the Bay of Pigs disaster in April, that he “must second-guess even military plans.” Or, as Goldstein crystallizes the overall lesson of J.F.K.’s lonely call on Vietnam strategy: “Counselors advise but presidents decide.”

Obama finds himself at that same lonely decision point now. Though he came to the presidency declaring Afghanistan a “war of necessity,” circumstances have since changed. While the Taliban thrives there, Al Qaeda’s ground zero is next-door in nuclear-armed Pakistan. Last month’s blatantly corrupt, and arguably stolen, Afghanistan election ended any pretense that Hamid Karzai is a credible counter to the Taliban or a legitimate partner for America in a counterinsurgency project of enormous risk and cost. Indeed, Karzai, whose brother is a reputed narcotics trafficker, is a double for Ngo Dinh Diem, the corrupt South Vietnamese president whose brother also presided over a vast, government-sanctioned criminal enterprise in the early 1960s. And unlike Kennedy, whose C.I.A. helped take out the Diem brothers, Obama doesn’t have a coup in his toolbox.

Goldstein points out there are other indisputable then-and-now analogies as well. Much as Vietnam could not be secured over the centuries by China, France, Japan or the United States, so Afghanistan has been a notorious graveyard for the ambitions of Alexander the Great, the British and the Soviets. “Some states in world politics are simply not susceptible to intervention by the great powers,” Goldstein told me. He also notes that the insurgencies in Afghanistan and Vietnam share the same geographical advantage. As the porous border of neighboring North Vietnam provided sanctuary and facilitated support to our enemy then, so Pakistan serves our enemy today.

Most worrisome, in Goldstein’s view, is the notion that a recycling of America’s failed “clear and hold” strategy in Vietnam could work in Afghanistan. How can American forces protect the population, let alone help build a functioning nation, in a tribal narco-state consisting of some 40,000 mostly rural villages over an area larger than California and New York combined?

Even if we routed the Taliban in another decade or two, after countless casualties and billions of dollars, how would that stop Al Qaeda from coalescing in Somalia or some other criminal host state? How would a Taliban-free Afghanistan stop a jihadist trained in Pakistan’s Qaeda camps from mounting a terrorist plot in Denver and Queens?

Already hawks are arguing that any deviation from McChrystal’s combat-troop requests is tantamount to surrender and “immediate withdrawal.” But that all-in or all-out argument, a fixture of the Iraq debate, is just as false a choice here. Obama is not contemplating either surrender to terrorists or withdrawal from Afghanistan. One prime alternative is the counterterrorism plan championed by Biden. As The Times reported, it would scale back American forces in Afghanistan to “focus more on rooting out Al Qaeda there and in Pakistan.”

Bewert said...

(cont.)

Obama’s decision, whichever it is, will demand all the wisdom and political courage he can muster. If he adds combat troops, he’ll be extending a deteriorating eight-year-long war without a majority of his country or his own party behind him. He’ll have to explain why more American lives should be yoked to the Karzai “government.” He’ll have to be honest in estimating the cost. (The Iraq war, which the Bush administration priced at $50 to $60 billion, is at roughly $1 trillion and counting.) He will have to finally ask recession-battered Americans what his predecessor never did: How much — and what — are you willing to sacrifice in blood and treasure for the mission?

If Obama instead decides to embrace some variation on the Biden option, he’ll have a different challenge. He’ll face even more violent attacks than he did this summer. When George Will wrote a recent column titled “Time to Get Out of Afghanistan,” he was accused of “urging retreat and accepting defeat” (by William Kristol) and of “waving the bloody shirt” (by Fred Kagan, an official adviser to McChrystal who, incredibly enough, freelances as a blogger at National Review). The editorial page at Will’s home paper, The Washington Post, declared that deviating from McChrystal’s demand for more troops “would both dishonor and endanger this country.” If a conservative columnist can provoke neocon invective this hysterical, just imagine what will be hurled at Obama.

But the author of “Lessons in Disaster” does not believe that a change in course in Afghanistan would be a disaster for Obama’s young presidency. “His greatest qualities as president,” Goldstein says, “are his quality of mind and his quality of judgment — his dispassionate ability to analyze a situation. If he was able to do that here, he might more than survive a short-term hit from the military and right-wing pundits. He would establish his credibility as a president who will override his advisers when a strategy doesn’t make sense.”

Either way, it’s up to the president to decide what he thinks is right for the country’s security, the politics be damned. That he has temporarily pressed the pause button to think it through while others, including some of his own generals, try to lock him in is not a sign of indecisiveness but of confidence and strength. It is, perhaps, Obama’s most significant down payment yet on being, in the most patriotic sense, Kennedyesque.

Anonymous said...

Who gives a fuck, Jewtah boy? Go away.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, a war overseas is a non-issue in Bend.
Doesn't effect us either way.

blackdog said...

"Already hawks are arguing that any deviation from McChrystal’s combat-troop requests is tantamount to surrender and “immediate withdrawal.”

Generals ALWAYS want more troops. That's an automatic. McClellan and other Union generals kept asking for more troops during the Civil War. Abrams and other generals kept asking for more troops during the Vietnam War. One thing Lincoln liked about Grant was that he wasn't always bitching that he didn't have enough troops, saying instead that he would take what Lincoln could give him and get the job done with that. (Which he did.)

Afghanistan has been the graveyard of empires -- the Romans, the British, the Russians, and now us. We're not going to eradicate terrorism with conventional warfare, and the real action is in Pakistan now anyway. Throwing more troops into this meat grinder will accomplish nothing.

blackdog said...

"HBowelMovement weather is now here, Bend-Winter, frozen-fog-smog, cold and no more sunshine, ... hope you enjoyed our 100 days of sunshine."

Nah, I think Indian summer will be back, although the next week or so looks pretty crappy. We get these interludes of cool, cloudy weather in September and October, but Oct. 31 is when winter really arrives. Like clockwork.

Bewert said...

Re: Anonymous said...

Who gives a fuck, Jewtah boy? Go away.

####

Just here to torment you personally.

Cause I know you pay attention.

Who knows, who cares, maybe someday I'll buy a summer condo in Bend.

Bewert said...

BTW, anonymouse, I thoroughly enjoyed my freshly picked strawberries with my Grape Nuts this morning. They perfectly complemented the banana that Smith's imported from somewhere ;)

Anonymous said...

right on, my tomatoes are going off right now.

You can grow stuff here too...

Anonymous said...

I like the part about Deim of vietnam having a brother running drugs, and now we have our Karzai and his brother is the head of opium,

My the USA can really pick them, but nah we're not in the business controlling the drug empire, ... nah we're they're to educate, I mean incinerate women and children.

Bend its all about Bend, the golden cookie, I should say 'final solution' is being manufactured as we type at Suterra here in Bend, this is the fucking epicenter of genocide, so its very Bend.

Anonymous said...

Breaking News Tsunami Advisory Is in Effect for the Coastal Areas of California and Oregon

*

The end is near boyz, the end is near.

Anonymous said...

Giant waves crash over coastal range, and cascade range, cleansing Bend of all Californian's.

Anonymous said...

What is it about Bendites?

Company president gets prison for embezzling from Tualatin company's retirement plan

By Bryan Denson, The Oregonian
September 29, 2009, 5:00PM
The former owner of a defunct Tualatin chemical company has been sentenced to two years in prison for embezzling $269,000 from his employees’ retirement plan.

Joel J. Morris, 44, who was the owner and president of Jadco Chemical Ltd., was the trustee of his company’s pension plan. The Bend resident made eight unauthorized withdrawals from the plan from 2005 to 2007, which were intended for 12 former employees, according to government prosecutors.

Some of the withdrawals were made after Jadco shut down in 2007.

Morris pleaded guilty last May to one count of embezzlement from an employee benefit plan. At his sentencing Monday, U.S. District Judge Michael W. Mosman imposed a three-year term of supervision after his release from prison and ordered him to pay full restitution to his victims.

Kent Robinson, the acting U.S. Attorney for the District of Oregon, described Moris’ theft as “unconscionable” and warned in a prepared statement that the sentencing “should send a message that prison is waiting for any corporate executive who illegally raids the company’s pension plan.

Anonymous said...

"I think there will be 5X wood burning this season so our smog-fog should be very nice"

Is it legal to install wood burning stoves in a modern subdivision? Or do you have to be "grandfathered in" to have one of these?

Anonymous said...

The end is near boyz, the end is near.


or not....

Anonymous said...

Is it legal to install wood burning stoves in a modern subdivision? Or do you have to be "grandfathered in" to have one of these?

*

Are you out of your fucking mind?

Like a 'man' is going to get a fucking permit to put in a fucking wood-burning stove in his own castle?

Listen this is the fucking god damn problem with you fucking CALI transplant alan-alda metro-sexuals, your not real men, hey marge, how long does it take a real man to install a wood burning stove with FED approved burner? Like a few hours.

You fuck-heads think that mobiles and singles came with 'wood-stoves', did the good old boyz go to city-hall and get a permit to put a wood-stove in their single-wide?

This is what makes ME so god damn fucking angry with ALL you fuck-heads from CALI and newbies, is that you just don't fucking understand what it even means to be a man, and you have NO fucking idea of what you have lost.

Get over it fuck-heads there will be 1,000's of 'illegal' wood-stove spewing smoke out of all your favorite CC&R subdivisions within the next 5 years, and after that places like awbrey, broken-top, ... skyline and all these fucking gated communitys will be filled with mexicans, ...

Then the likes of BB2 will be saying, "didn't anyone get approval for this change", "What happened to my 2004 Bend", ...

It was always a MIRAGE little BB2 boyz the real Bend is returning.

Anonymous said...

. The Bend resident made eight unauthorized withdrawals from the plan from 2005 to 2007, which were intended for 12 former employees, according to government prosecutors.

*

HomeBOY missed it when he read the last HULCE gazette, but I laughed my ass off,

In HULCE she had an article about employment, and she advised people not practice 'larceny' in their business life.

I mean this is like telling her 'kind' not to carry a bible. She also mentions 'fraud', ... the good HULCE say's "Fraud & Larceny should be avoided" ... WOW like moses on the mount HULCE has spoken.

A BB2 kunt here rhetorically ask's "What is it about Bend & Fraud?"

I think me & homeBoy since day one here have made it VERY clear that Bend is 100% FRAUD, and LARCENY is butter on the bread.

I think we have made it clear for 4 big fucking years here now, that we brought in 50,000 CALI-grifter's in the last 10+ years, one only has to look at the Bend christian church ( BCC: CACB, ... ) of Bend to see 1031, Bend is FRAUD. The criminal-mind is Bend. The white-collar criminal is Bend. Bend is/was a magnet for BIG-EASY MONEY.

Now it all un-winds, and just like the end of any tulip-mania ( Dutch ) those that didn't leave early go to jail.

Have a nice day. This coming HBM Bend winter we should see an avalanche of suicides.

Anonymous said...

This is what makes ME so god damn fucking angry with ALL you fuck-heads from CALI and newbies, is that you just don't fucking understand what it even means to be a man, and you have NO fucking idea of what you have lost.

AMEN...These fucks need permission to take a shit in the morning. What they've lost? What they've lost? They've lost their fucking balls. They just have this little hacky-sack of a bag down there with nothing but fairy dust in it. Just like Spewart Smalley, the man-child that ran back to Jewtah with his nut (yes one) tucked between his legs, they all need to go home.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

this is the fucking god damn problem with you fucking CALI transplant alan-alda metro-sexuals, your not real men...

Oh yeah.... that's the stuff.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

she advised people not practice 'larceny' in their business life.

Wow. Me & Hulce agree on that.

Pleeze Peepul: Stop your larceny. Pleeze.

Anonymous said...

oh, that's some good stuff right there.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

From today's Bully:

Finally, good news for newspaper stocks

September 30, 2009 4:00 am

SAN FRANCISCO — Newspapers may have finally stopped — or at least slowed — their harrowing descent....MORE


This apparent "stop" in the descent of newspaper stocks only lasted about 1/2 a day. Down HARD today.

Good job COSTA. Nice tout.

Anonymous said...

This coming HBM Bend winter we should see an avalanche of suicides.

*

Snow starts in Bend this weekend.

HBowelMovement weather for future, 100 days of sunshine are BEND-OVER.

No indian-summer for Bend,

Anonymous said...

Spewart Smalley, the man-child that ran back to Jewtah with his nut (yes one) tucked between his legs, they all need to go home.

*

He don't need balls, he's got a man-wife with balls, next best thing to balls.

Anonymous said...

This apparent "stop" in the descent of newspaper stocks only lasted about 1/2 a day. Down HARD today.

Good job COSTA. Nice tout.

***

You just know that the folks that own this newspaper conglomerate out of wally-world want to sell, COSTA wouldn't be touting this shit if a fire-sale weren't in the air.

My god what would we do without the BULL?

blackdog said...

"This is what makes ME so god damn fucking angry with ALL you fuck-heads from CALI and newbies, is that you just don't fucking understand what it even means to be a man, and you have NO fucking idea of what you have lost."

The psychos appear to have returned in force from wherever they've been the past few weeks (Fucking child prostitutes in Malaysia? Yeah, that's what REAL MEN do!) so it's time for me to take a little vacation from this blog. Hasta la vista.

Anonymous said...

When you do not have a job that has a future, it is always popular to take a negative slant on everything.
The kind of people that are usually referred to as "poor white trash."

Anonymous said...

I dunno about Bend, but I got a permit to put a wood stove in my mfg house. It cost almost nothing. Your stove has to be EPA certified but that's no big deal.

Of course if you already own your place and don't plan on selling it, then a permit isn't strictly necessary. If you later made an insurance claim because the place burned down, though, expect a fight from the ins co.

Anonymous said...

OOOOO!
RE solds bursted to 126 but the median is now $186k for Sept. What was that about 2002?

Anonymous said...

The kind of people that are usually referred to as "poor white trash."

*

Welcome to BB2 nigger.

Anonymous said...

Fucking child prostitutes in Malaysia? Yeah, that's what REAL MEN do!

*

Yep, to HBowelMovement a 30yr old women is a child, and to BP man is anything that can run faster than its father or older brother. Same-Same for a virgin, I think the okie joke used to be a virgin was a 6yr old girl that could run quicker than dad.

Welcome to HBM's world.

This is what is so cool about our Bend, a real cast of characters.

For me the motto is "ANYTHING BUT BEND COUGARS".

blackdog said...

"Yep, to HBowelMovement a 30yr old women is a child"

30 is pretty long in the tooth for you, isn't it, Buster? I thought about half that age was your max.

Anonymous said...

I looked it up -- Alan Alda was a TV actor from the 1970s known as the "archetypical sympathetic male." So the analogy makes sense.

Anonymous said...

"Yep, to HBowelMovement a 30yr old women is a child"

30 is pretty long in the tooth for you, isn't it, Buster? I thought about half that age was your max.

*

HBowelMovement ( was NiggerDog ), I prefer to reference Hugh Hefner's quote on this subject.

"Hey Hugh, what do you think about women over 24?",

Hugh: "I don't know I have never been with one".

I'm 65, my preferred woman is 30-35, below 30 they have minds of children, over 35 you only got about ten road miles left. Post 45 menopausal women me not want.

The Hugh school is that women peak at 24, and that's probably true for sex and body, but like you HBM and Dunc, ... I really am a mind person. I also require the girl have a college degree, and preferably a graduate degree in something pleasant like art. Nothing better than going to museums everyday with your own beautiful guide.

In Malay sure you can fuck 6 hrs a day, rather than the 6 minutes a day as here in US, but like we say what do you do with the rest of the time? I love Asian women compared to Bend-Cougars, the black hair, soft skin, womanly sensitivity, keeping their fucking mouth shut unless there is something to say ... and don't forget the cooking and fucking. Never met a Malay women yet that couldn't whip up a 5 course meal in 30 minutes from nothing.

Heaven on earth for me HBM, but you wouldn't know these things, ... as you pussy's like BP, DP HBM-P, all live with man-wives, ...

love,

Anonymous said...

When you do not have a job that has a future, it is always popular to take a negative slant on everything.
The kind of people that are usually referred to as "poor white trash."

*

What is 'future'?

What is a negative slant?

I think that Bend is a bed of roses, and even though we be knee deep in the shit I think the real estate prices will only go up. Right?

I see this a lot lately with the middle-class of Bend, anybody that speaks the truth about this little shit-hole is 'negative', but then I remind them that they touted endless growth back in 2004 and at BBQ's bragged of flipping, and that was 'POSITIVE"????

Now that everyone knows that Bend is fucked, its negative to think of the obvious?

Years ago the majority of Bend and region were "white trash", what the fuck is new. HomeBoy has long pointed out that this town downsizes 401K's and net-worth, ... I don't give what the fuck you were before, but here in Bend if you stay long enough you will become 'white trash'

HBowelMovement is a perfect example, prior to coming to Bend he be a Princeton Graduate with a 'future', and now he's a miserable old fart in Bend Oregon that anywhere else would consider white-trash. This town does this to people and always has. Welcome home boyz.

Anonymous said...

Hasta la vista.

*

My god, you have promised us this longer than the pussy, but you always come back.

I think you have been here 2 years now, your one of us you know! :)

Anonymous said...

"archetypical sympathetic male."

*

Sympathy is weakness, you'll find none of that shit on BB2.

Anonymous said...

Mission Accomplished

http://www.theweek.com/bullpen/column/101020/Obamas_cynical_Afghan_ploy

Anonymous said...

According to the Tax Policy Center,47% of all families pay NO federal income tax.
No wonder there is such support for free health care.
They know that THEY won't be paying for it.

Anonymous said...

Mission Accomplished

http://www.theweek.com/bullpen/column/101020/Obamas_cynical_Afghan_ploy

*

What did any BB2 fuckhead think?

The OR-BUSH-EO is owned lock, stock and barrel by AIPAC.

The OR-BUSH-EO is Jewish, by the fact that his mothers, mother was jewish.

The OR_BUSH_EO has surrounded himself by MOSSAD men of Israel.

The OR-BUSH-EO has VP that is the #1 MOSSAD man in USA.

Surprised? Only a pussy would be surprised.

So we have more dead Palestinians, and more dead Arabs and Persians, ... so what does anybody care?

Suterra continues to manufacture bio-cyanide encapsulated sterialization products for aerial spraying on the middle-east and south-america, ... there are no crocodile tears for human life being shed in Bend. Suterra now licenses their technology to Israel.

It's ok, the Bend may be fraud and larceny but they're all christians.

blackdog said...

"My god, you have promised us this longer than the pussy, but you always come back."

"Hasta la vista" means "seeya later," not "goodbye forever." Sometimes I can't resist poking Buster with a sharp stick through the bars of his cage.

blackdog said...

"HBowelMovement is a perfect example, prior to coming to Bend he be a Princeton Graduate with a 'future', and now he's a miserable old fart in Bend Oregon that anywhere else would consider white-trash."

Hey, I ain't washed up, I's retired. And we got our single-wide fixed up real nice!

blackdog said...

"In Malay sure you can fuck 6 hrs a day"

You're 65 and you can fuck 6 hours a day? You sure you didn't mean it takes you six hours to fuck?

Anonymous said...

When you live in Bend, you just have to accept the fact that you will not get ahead, financially.
Good jobs are scarce, and most people here reach the height of their career around the age of 30.

Anonymous said...

"When you live in Bend, you just have to accept the fact that you will not get ahead, financially.
Good jobs are scarce, and most people here reach the height of their career around the age of 30."

I think that's true. There's a place looking for a controller and not being able to find one - some candidates don't want to move, others are risk-averse (finance people tend to be like that). The problem is that Bend's too small. When I moved to Oregon (many years ago) I chose only to look at PDX or SEA for the very reason that there's little security anywhere any more.

blackdog said...

"There's a place looking for a controller and not being able to find one - some candidates don't want to move, others are risk-averse (finance people tend to be like that)."

If I know anything about Bend, the company is offering a shitty salary too. Employers here expect people to work for nothing because this place is such a fucking "paradise."

Anonymous said...

"Leaners" turn Republican...

In the first three months of this year, Gallup found that 17 percent of all adults were independents who leaned toward the Democrats, and 11 percent independents who leaned toward the Republicans. Since then, however, Democrats have lost ground with indpendents and Republicans have gained ground. Gallup's third quarter data showed that 15 percent of adults were Republican-leaning independents, and 13 percent Democratic-leaning independents.

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/44/2009/10/01/a_republican_comeback.html?hpid=topnews

Anonymous said...

blackdog said:If I know anything about Bend, the company is offering a shitty salary too. Employers here expect people to work for nothing because this place is such a fucking "paradise."Wonderful analogy blackdog or hbm where have you been? It's called poverty with a view, nothing new but since you said it it is. Kinda like the hippies discovering sex nothing new been around a long long time.

Anonymous said...

Man, the weather today was simply dreadful....

Anonymous said...

Gallup polls always lean to the right...no matter what the truth is.

Pretty sure Gallup had McCain/Palin as a lock.

Not that it matters. Right, left, it's all the same in the end.

Anonymous said...

Man, the weather today was simply dreadful.... Really? Hey man I guess you have not lived anywhere where the sun don't shine. Like mabe the coast or how about northwestern montana? What about this alaska? To tell you the complete truth today was stellar! I got my vitamin D. Are you one of those hippies who thought they discovered sex?

Anonymous said...

Gallup polls always lean to the right...no matter what the truth is.

Pretty sure Gallup had McCain/Palin as a lock.

Not that it matters. Right, left, it's all the same in the end. Remind me to never ever hang out with you!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Q: What does a Bend noob say upon arrival?

A: Man, the weather today was simply dreadful....

Anonymous said...

Anyone know a good orthopedic hand doctor?

Anonymous said...

Anyone know a good orthopedic hand doctor? Not me just ask blackdog or the hippie who thought he discovered sex.

Anonymous said...

"in Bend you just have to accept the fact that you will not get ahead, financially."

But SOMEONE must have got ahead financially. . . . like the long time landholders around who sold all this land to developers.

It was only 2.5 years ago Pahlisch paid $15 million for 75 acres on 15th. That's $200,000 per acre! Now tell me that the former landowners didn't make out like bandits. I'll bet they had inherited or bought the land for pennies a long time ago.

You can make money -- just have to be in the right place at the right time [luck]

Anonymous said...

"In Malay sure you can fuck 6 hrs a day"

You're 65 and you can fuck 6 hours a day? You sure you didn't mean it takes you six hours to fuck? - niggerdog

*

HBowelMovement, this is hardly worth a reply, but we all know your the guy that measures an erection with a protractor, and your like all our pussy's are married to a man-wife, that probably hasn't given you any Nukie for a few decades. Your stuck in Bend, and probably are a puritan to boot, and hate sex, as much as you hate niggers, and white-trash.

I hate to go to into detail but yes, minimum 6 hours a day, usually 8, its quite easy a new girl, I usually pop Cialis which is good for three days or viagra daily, I find that after a week with a new girl you settle in at the pace, and can drop the Viagra or Cialis,

This always works for me. For me its all about PACE, with a new girl it can be awkward, shyness is a big problem in SE ASIA, you got to be patient first few days, so its good to have the Cialis. Once you PROVE to a new girl you have the POWER ( a dick and you know how to use it ), then your good to go. Most girls I know want to fuck 6-8 hours a day fucking is what they dream about most of the time. Most have a kid, and their husband has dumped them for an 18yr old. I like 30 yr old girls, and I'm willing to shack up with one that have a kid, don't bother me.

How does it work?

Let's see wake-up at 5am and see a 30 yr old naked girl next to you, and I get an erection, who looks 20 compared to a white bend cougar-bitch of same age. Fuck for an hour, and then go do eating. Of course you shower ten times a day.

Then about 10am after morning exercise you fuck again, and nap. I jog & swim, and do martial arts everyday. Then its lunch time, and you shower and fuck again, ... Then after noon more walking around and more exercise ( swimming ). Then more sex after a shower, and another shower. Then its time for a beer maybe 6pm and eat some dinner, and hang out in bed by 8-9pm and fuck again.

It's quite easy to fuck 6 hours a day.

The real question I have is a 65 year old man who knows that the 'fountain of youth' is 30 year old babes, is why do most 65 year old geezers like HBM think their dick is for urinating?

Anonymous said...

"in Bend you just have to accept the fact that you will not get ahead, financially."

But SOMEONE must have got ahead financially. . . . like the long time landholders around who sold all this land to developers.

*

Yes, there's lots of money in Bend and Bledsoe is still handing it out like candy.

Yes, as we know, HOLLERN inherited 10's of thousands of acres, for free. Then you got JR which the city paid the county 0.06 cent an acre, such is the real cost for Bend land. FREE, or almost free.

So then at the peak people were paying $300k, for 1/8 acre lots, ... or $2.4M an acre, for land that cost folks $100/acre not many years ago, ...

So yes, lots of people made lots of money, on you god damn fucking newbies.

There are dozens of names here in town of family's that are sitting on 10's of millions so don't feel that ALL of Bend is loser-renters like the majority of folks on BB2.

Anonymous said...

Yes its now 4:30 pm and my sweetie says I must get off the internet, I say bye to you KUNTS for now.

See you in Bend when I return at XMAS.

Got to be around for the BIG freeze during water pipe bursting season.

I hope somebody here get's HBM ( blackdog, nigger-dog, ... so many aliases ) a hard-on, he certainly needs it, maybe a few can get a BP collection of $$ and buy HBM a hour with one of Bend's Craigs escort girls? Shit the guy needs some real pussy and bad.

Maybe if he got some pussy he really would hasta-la-vista from us? We could only wish.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

In the Bully biz section:

Tiny bubbles are the source of aroma from champagne

October 2, 2009 4:00 am

WASHINGTON — Don Ho was right. It is the tiny bubbles. A team of researchers — in Europe,....MORE


Important stuff folks...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Looks like CACB + Butt Fuggly Patty Moss survive to BEG another week....

Anonymous said...

Being born into a wealthy family does not qualify as "getting ahead financially." It has nothing to do with ambition, brains, or education. All you have to do is "be born".

Most of the people I have met who inherit wealth are goof offs with big egos.

Most of the people that I have met who are self made millionaires are down to earth, practical people, who do not flaunt their wealth..

Anonymous said...

Why are the unemployment numbers and the factory orders "worse than expected" today? Who is doing the "expecting" and why are their guesses so rosy?

Anonymous said...

I ain't got much money here in Bend.

Anybody know where I can get an inexpensive hand job?

Anonymous said...

* I ain't got much money here in Bend.

Anybody know where I can get an inexpensive hand job?

I know where you can get one for free. With a health benefit, too.

Anonymous said...

another horrid day in Bend...can't he city do something about this?

blackdog said...

"See you in Bend when I return at XMAS."

Have a good time. Don't hurry back.

blackdog said...

"The real question I have [as] a 65 year old man who knows that the 'fountain of youth' is 30 year old babes"

Sounds like your "fountain of youth" is Cialis.

Never taken the stuff -- haven't needed it yet. Of course I'm a mere youth of 63 -- I'm sure there'll come a day ...

blackdog said...

"Most of the people I have met who inherit wealth are goof offs with big egos."

Depends on what (if any) values their families instilled in them. I've known people with inherited wealth who were very hard-working, although the work wasn't necessarily about making more money.

One thing I found in college was that the guys from old-money families weren't snobs at all -- they couldn't care less whether you went to prep school or public high school (like me) or were the son of an investment banker or a security guard (like me). They were secure in their own social status and associated with who they pleased.

It was the nouveau riche kids (first- or second-generation money) who tended to be snobs.

PopGoesBend said...

I was looking at the craigslist rentals and came across a place that looked like it was in the Mews. I then googled "Tedstone Mews" to see, and DAMN.... result number 2.... bendbubble2.blogspot.com

Bendbubble2 no longer banned by google.

Google "Patty Moss".... BB2 is number 2 result. Hot damn.

Anonymous said...

http://correspondents.theatlantic.com/christina_davidson/2009/10/mortgage_fraud_in_bend_or.php

mortgage fraud in bend

Bewert said...

Re: It's quite easy to fuck 6 hours a day.

####

Buster, one of your best fantasies yet. You tha' man.

####

Great MP3 from "This American Life" this week, in the Global Pool of Money:

http://podcast.thisamericanlife.org/podcast/390.mp3

####

I've found GDX options rather interesting of late.

Bewert said...

Re: http://correspondents.theatlantic.com/christina_davidson/2009/10/mortgage_fraud_in_bend_or.php

mortgage fraud in bend

####

Wow, that is a damning article.

Fits right in with my experience there, though.

Bewert said...

That MP3 I linked to has an interview with a mortgage broker that was making $75K to $100K A MONTH.

And another with a black guy who got a $530K mortgage when "...even my criminal friends wouldn't have given me..."

One of the first people I met in Bend was a mortgage broker.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Water park project’s deadline likely will be extended to 2014

No! No, someone tell me this isn't so!

Anonymous said...

Why would you buy a condo next to an indoor water park?
Have you ever been in one of these?
They stink, are extremely noisy,and have the humidity of a Florida summer.

Anonymous said...

Re: It's quite easy to fuck 6 hours a day.

####

Buster, one of your best fantasies yet. You tha' man.

####

Sheeet buster & bp used to go mano-mano for 12 hours a day back in the early days at bendbbs trailer. Them were the days. How many hours was bp pulling train at d&d in 2007? Maybe 18? Fantasy?

Anonymous said...

"We got to stop this fraud and larceny" - hulce

###

NO FRAUD in BEND

( HAGAR )

Blog postings and chain emails trying to discredit his work circulated through real estate industry networks. One time in late 2006 or early 2007, a Bend real estate agent reached him on his cellphone, launching into a full-throated tirade as soon as he answered. "She yelled, 'There's no fraud in Bend. You can't say that. We're not scammers. We wouldn't do that. You'll destroy our real estate market,'" Hagar recounts, adding his own response: "Hmmm, actually, you're destroying your market."

###

The end is near!

Anonymous said...

Off the top of his head, Hagar can think of at least 30 Bend residents who would deserve to be indicted, tried, and convicted for their role in the fraudulent activities that artificially inflated the local community's housing bubble. However, he says, "The reality is only about 5% will ever be caught."

###

30?? How about 40,000!

Bend is fraud, and always has been fraud.

Blame game? Blame the BULL & SORE. Blame HBNiggerDog for being a soreass urnalist.

Anonymous said...

This bubble could never have happened to that extent without the
media hype, the hype of the financial experts / pundits.

###

The above is from the comments on Bend-Fraud.

Think about this, as we all know it wasn't the appraisers that caused the fraud. It was promotion by the BULL&SORE.

Anonymous said...

anyone have the final Sept. sales and median prices?

Marge?

blackdog said...

"Blame game? Blame the BULL & SORE. Blame HBNiggerDog for being a soreass urnalist."

Buster, you horny old pedophile, shouldn't you be busy laying in a supply of Cialis for your annual trip to Malaysia to screw 14-year-old hos?

Meanwhile, can you explain how the Source and I promoted real estate fraud? I won't hold my breath waiting for your answer.

BTW I kinda like the "HBNiggerDog" label. Makes it sound like I'm a rap star.

Anonymous said...

Bend is entering a six month future of very low real estate sales. Not many people will pull the trigger from Nov to March.
By next spring, prices should be down another 10%, unless unemployment get worse.

PopGoesBend said...

>By next spring, prices should be down another 10%, unless unemployment get worse.

I expect worse than that. Last year it was down 20% between Sept and March, and with the crater in April it was down almost 30% from Sept. In the 12 month period from Oct 2007-Sept 2008 there were only 1540 NODs. For the same period 2008-2009 there were 3310 - and increase of 115%. Number of sales are about the same as last year.

If we held at only a 10% drop between now and then I would be amazed.

Anonymous said...

Could someone here kindly donate some money so that HBNiggerdog and Buster could get a room together?

blackdog said...

"Wow, that is a damning article. Fits right in with my experience there, though.


Small-town crooks are the worst crooks there are, when you get right down to it. I think they get fewer opportunities to steal than the big-town crooks do, so when they get a chance they really go balls-out. Everybody in the local real estate industry saw the bubble as his or her One Big Chance to make that One Big Score.

Marge said...

Anyone have the final Sept. sales and median prices?

Marge?

This Am it was 139 sold at $199,900median for SFR.
It can change, there are RE folks that don't report on time.

Anonymous said...

socialism A social system in which the producers posess both political power and the means of producing and distributing goods. The theory or practice of those who support such a social system. In Marxist-Leninist theory, the building of the material base for communism under the dictatorship of the proletariat. HbM what is your response? Is this what you support?

Anonymous said...

excuse me this is somethig that should be brought to the sources attention .socialism A social system in which the producers posess both political power and the means of producing and distributing goods. The theory or practice of those who support such a social system. In Marxist-Leninist theory, the building of the material base for communism under the dictatorship of the proletariat. HbM what is your response? Is this what you support?

Anonymous said...

hbm is blackdog

Anonymous said...

sounds to me like we have freethinkers on this blog? shall you tolorate or condemn freethought blackdog? Or should our government tell us what to think?

Bewert said...

Just finished a fascinating book. "Outliers" by Malcolm Gladwell. Be ever curious and persistent, taking what is possible, what is presented to you, from life.

And the "10,000 hour rule". Being really good at something costs a lot of time and effort.

AKA persistence.

Anonymous said...

excuse me this is somethig that should be brought to the sources attention .socialism A social system in which the producers posess both political power and the means of producing and distributing goods. The theory or practice of those who support such a social system. In Marxist-Leninist theory, the building of the material base for communism under the dictatorship of the proletariat. HbM what is your response? Is this what you support?

Awwwwww, how cute! Who's new...

Did you google that all by yourself?

Oh well, congrats on getting this far! It's hunting season and I got work to do.

hbm said...

Just finished a fascinating book. Das Kapital by Marx. Be ever persistent and tenacious, taking what is not yours, and giving it to your friends.

Anonymous said...

Small-town crooks are the worst crooks there are, when you get right down to it. I think they get fewer opportunities to steal than the big-town crooks do, so when they get a chance they really go balls-out. Everybody in the local real estate industry saw the bubble as his or her One Big Chance to make that One Big Score.

*

Really worse than what? A baby fucker?

MOSS is small time teller who made big time from 1998 to 2008, WTF going from teller to CEO of your own HO bank, only in Bend.

But in a small town, ... .. NOPE

I think HOME-BOY got it right on this one a long time ago. A ton of FUCKING GRIFTERS came to BEND, post 1998 about 40,000 of them. HBNigger is right, that every fucking one of them wanted theirs and quick. No fucking surprise of the outcome.

1.) Grifters, and lots of them
2.) Once in a lifetime easy money
3.) Small town that will sell their pre-pubescent children into prostitution in a nano-second.

Toss em all together and you get Bend, OR.

HBNiggerdog is right, they all from carpenter, to banker, to any and all on the RE food-chain, knew this was their once in a lifetime to get rich quick and easy. Just another fucking tulip-mania like all before. Of course there are a few smart Pimp's like SMITH & HOLLERN something tells me they're not living in their car.

Most interesting an predictable is occupancy, in my street not a fucking person has lost their home up at highland@BrokenTop (Bend1031) they're running over 50% foreclosure. Bend's biggest and best, are going down the hardest.

Anonymous said...

Lots at Highland at Broken Top are still on the market for over $500K.
Who on earth is going to pay 1/2 Million for a LOT?
Duncan, here is your chance!

blackdog said...

"socialism A social system in which the producers posess both political power and the means of producing and distributing goods. The theory or practice of those who support such a social system. In Marxist-Leninist theory, the building of the material base for communism under the dictatorship of the proletariat. HbM what is your response? Is this what you support?"

No.

That's what the United States already has.

The producers of material goods (corporations) also hold the political power.

You don't think those schmucks we elect and send to Washington have any real power, do you?

blackdog said...

"A ton of FUCKING GRIFTERS came to BEND, post 1998"

There were plenty of grifters here long before then. They were small-time grifters and the bubble gave them the chance to become big-time grifters. I'm amused by the naivete of people who think Bend was ethically as pure as the driven snow up until the real estate boom.

Speaking of the driven snow, there's about three inches of it outside my house this morning and more coming down. Would somebody please remind me again what a fucking "paradise" this place is?

The marketing of Bend as "paradise" is one of the biggest grifts ever perpetrated. It's a boring little town in the middle of nowhere with a shitty climate. That's all it is, all it ever was and all it ever will be.

blackdog said...

"Or should our government tell us what to think?"

No, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Glenn Beck and Michelle Malkin should tell us what to think. 'Cause they is REAL AMURRICANS!

Fucking imbecile.

blackdog said...

"Most interesting an predictable is occupancy, in my street not a fucking person has lost their home up at highland@BrokenTop (Bend1031) they're running over 50% foreclosure. Bend's biggest and best, are going down the hardest."

Same story here -- I don't know of one foreclosure in my neighborhood. (Of course almost everybody here has owned his house for a long time -- like, decades.)

Places like Broken Top are populated by nouveau semi-riche who like to blow money around to inflate their sense of self-importance. The folks with serious money don't behave that way. The late Les Schwab and Bob Chandler, Mike Hollern, Bill Smith -- all led, or lead, pretty low-key lifestyles. (I know Schwab and Chandler didn't even play golf. Smith doesn't either. Don't know about Hollern.)

blackdog said...

"HBNigger is right"

Please spell the name right -- it's HBNiggerdog.

Anonymous said...

blackdog said...
"HBNigger is right"

Please spell the name right -- it's HBNiggerdog.
===========

H Bruce Miller is a racist.

And a White Trash wannabe gansta idiot. Reminds me of the idiot middle schoolers here in Bend who want be cool.

Anonymous said...

blackdog said...

BTW I kinda like the "HBNiggerDog" label. Makes it sound like I'm a rap star.
=========

Seriously, does H Bruce Miller really feel this way?

What an racist idiot.

A racist for the above.

An idiot for going public with his racism.

Marge said...

Found some info worth mentioning here, since this blog is about Bends decline.
Of the 2100+ sales to date of ALL types of residential properties, in Deschutes County, 1081 were REOs or Short Sales. The median price of those sold was $170k. How are we going to handle another 3300+ NODs coming on the market in the next year. Who the heck is going to buy them all.
We better keep the "Paradise" thing going. Don't tell anyone that we got 3 inches of snow on Oct.4th or we will have to start tearing down houses.

blackdog said...

"We better keep the "Paradise" thing going. Don't tell anyone that we got 3 inches of snow on Oct.4th or we will have to start tearing down houses."

More like four inches at my place and still coming down. Big branches of elm trees coming down all over my property because their leaves are still on them and they can't bear the weight.

I tell everyone I encounter who's thinking about Bend that the climate sucks. But don't worry -- video of this storm is gonna be all over TV and the Web. Frankly I don't give a rat's ass what happens to Bend because in two years or less I will be OUT of this shithole.

blackdog said...

"Seriously, does H Bruce Miller really feel this way?"

No, but Buster pinned the HBNiggerdog label on me and I figured that instead of getting mad (which was the reaction he wanted to provoke) it'd be better to make a joke out of it.

Anonymous said...

Frankly I don't give a rat's ass what happens to Bend because in two years or less I will be OUT of this shithole.

Please, ASSHOLE, make it less. Make it much less.

blackdog said...

"Please, ASSHOLE, make it less. Make it much less."

I will if I can. It'd happen tomorrow if I could swing it.

"Don't tell anyone that we got 3 inches of snow on Oct.4th or we will have to start tearing down houses."

Might not be such a bad thing. That's one way of getting rid of the surplus inventory. Might be the only way, considering how much we overbuilt.

Anonymous said...

hbm, you'd be better off if everyone still wants to come, if you want to unload your place.

I don't see how it does you any good for the place to look as bad from the outside as it does from the inside.

blackdog said...

"hbm, you'd be better off if everyone still wants to come"

I think that delusion has been demolished. The bloom is off the (frozen) Bend rose, so to speak. It'll be a long time before we see more magazine puff pieces about what a swell place to live Bend is. We've become a national joke and a byword for folly and fraud. Anything I say or don't say won't make any difference.

Anonymous said...

HBNigger Bend is an International joke the whole world is laughing at the BBC series.

Anonymous said...

"I will if I can. It'd happen tomorrow if I could swing it."

where would you go? just wondering. thanks.

Anonymous said...

I tell everyone I encounter who's thinking about Bend that the climate sucks. But don't worry -- video of this storm is gonna be all over TV and the Web. Frankly I don't give a rat's ass what happens to Bend because in two years or less I will be OUT of this shithole.

##

My fucking god, HBNiggerdog is now talking buster jive, .. get the two a room. Rat's ass, shit-hole, ... who could have guessed we're talking about Bend?

Anonymous said...

Same story here -- I don't know of one foreclosure in my neighborhood. (Of course almost everybody here has owned his house for a long time -- like, decades.)

###

You know I have to wonder if our HBNiggerdog is really our HBM, cuz this niggerdog is talking some real hardcore shit, that I would have only expected from buster.

Yes, same here, virtually everyone on my street paid less than $30k for their home, I don't know anybody that ain't free and clear, and most just stood around like deer in the head-light watching the bubble, and now they just watch the implosion.

What really struck me about HBN was his comment about socialism, yes the USA is fascist ( government by the corporation, our US socialism ) with Limbaugh as the spokesman. The goons we send to DC are just grifters in Kmart suits not unlike the average bender.

The point about pre 1998, is that post the population doubled and my argument is the majority that came in were GRIFTERS, who is to say the percentage before? Like Me and HBN's assertion, most of our good neighbors are free and clear and NOT flippers.

It seems that the real parastic grifters live in the STD's, like much of the BB2 population. Broken-Top et-al are just expensive STD's, NWXC comes to mind.

Buster, HBN, and Dunc all live in simple old bend-style homes.

blackdog said...

"where would you go?"

We're considering a couple of places. We don't want to move too far away from our daughter in Portland. Ashland is a strong contender. It's consistently about 10 degrees warmer on a daily basis down there, and spring arrives in April instead of June.

blackdog said...

"Rat's ass, shit-hole, ... who could have guessed we're talking about Bend?"

Nah, I've called Bend a shithole a number of times before. Among other things.

blackdog said...

"Yes, same here, virtually everyone on my street paid less than $30k for their home"

Paid $85K in cash for ours in '85. It's 2,700 square feet and has almost an acre of land. But it's pretty simple -- no Italian marble bathrooms, granite countertops, etc.

Used to have a nice view too until Pahlisch threw up a bunch of crapshacks next to it. The city changed the land use rules to allow the bastards to build two-story monstrosities about 10 feet apart. Still pisses me off. Whatever a developer wants in Bend, the developer gets -- even if it's an out-of-town developer.

"Buster, HBN, and Dunc all live in simple old bend-style homes."

I've always been under the impression that Buster lives in a cabin made of logs that he felled and shaped himself using a Bowie knife. That's what A REAL MAN does, ain't it?

blackdog said...

"most just stood around like deer in the head-light watching the bubble"

Yeah, that's what I did, I'm sorry to admit. Shoulda sold out in the summer of 2006. We'd be sitting pretty.

I was just kinda standing there stunned with my mouth hanging open, not believing what was going on.

Anonymous said...

Hollywood reminds us why we hate the left.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2009-10-03/return-of-the-limousine-liberal/?cid=bs:archive3

MDHN09 said...

and a few others remind us why we fear the right///

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUPMjC9mq5Y

Anonymous said...

Blackdog
"Where would you go"
Astoria /Warrenton is a great place,not far from Portland ....came here 33 yrs ago from NH which had a climate similiar to Bend,cold witers and hot 4 month summers,'cept w/ the humidity. Found out I don't mind the rain so much and the older I get I don't really like hot,hot weather. Mild year round.....it does rain now and then.

Anonymous said...

It's NOT left versus right.

It's NOT top versus bottom.

It's NOT black versus white.

It's corruption.

It's fraud.

It's the guy in the mirror.

If you god damn American psychopathic fuck-heads must kill, then please kill the man in the mirror.

Anonymous said...

Serious talk today about Depression Boyz, ... as you know that's what I have been calling in this forum since the fall of 2006.

The global beast will be turning up its roaring quite a few notches at this point. In my system of describing this phenomena, the point of absolute expansion was 2001. This is where contraction BEGAN. It was High Noon, when the world system reached its moment of perfection...and popped. The Spirit of Deflation (if I can speak of it this way) was tiny, a little seed, overwhelmed by the Spirit of Inflation. But from this point Deflation began to grow and Inflation began to get weaker. Greenspan-Bernanke represent this Spirit of Inflation....but they have been losing strength ever since.

Noon is 2001. Dusk is 2010. At Dusk the Spirit of Inflation and the Spirit of Deflation will be at equal strength (as the light and the shadow are of equal strength at Dusk, the days and nights are of equal strength, the Night is rising, the Light is falling)....but 2010 indicates the triumph of the Spirit of Deflation. The Darkness rises and is in power and will remain in power from 2010 through 2028, until the Dawn returns. But the real power of Deflation will run from 2010 to 2019. 2019 will be the apex of the Forces of Deflation in the same way that 2001 was the apex of the Forces of Expansion. The Spirit of Inflation will appear as a seed in 2019 and will begin climbing the mountain again, weak at first, but gaining strength until 2028, when the Dawn will return, and the future will again become light and hopeful.

Spring is the Golden Age, during which time everything seems to work.

The credit expansion (1983-2001; 2019-2038) represents a 'filling up'; the debt contraction (1965-1983; 2001-2019) represents an 'emptying out'.

The darkest period will be 2010-2019.

###

How fucking dark? Will boyz, ... like I have said, the smart-boyz weathered the great-depression in France and that's why I have already moved enough assets to survive ten years to SE Asia.

If figure about 2018+ will be time to crawl back into Bend, and start-over, and build anew out of the ash. To weather the storm and pass the time, I'll simply enjoy the fountain of youth. ( gorgeous 30yr-old women )

Love you all,

Anonymous said...

Thinking about Physics ...

Greenspan's battle with the depression (his bubble sequences) were an attempt to re-inflate a dying credit expansion cycle. We had credit expansion of the high variety from 1983-2001, 18 years. 2001 is when we should have begun raising rates slowly, chocking the inflation out of the system (inflation which has been horrific in fact, EXCEPT in salaries....this is the gimmick that allowed the government to proclaim a lack of inflation).

We now face 18 years of deflation, 2001-2019, during which time we will attempt to unwind our debt and should also make an attempt to stabilize our currency.

The idea that we can fight deflation by back-handed currency devaluation is irresponsible and immoral. The middle class, the working poor, and the poor in America CANNOT afford an ever-inflationary model because high prices bankrupt them over and over again.

Discipline is needed. 18 years of expanded credit (yes, I supported Reagan's expansion of credit in 1983); followed by 18 years of credit contraction. Painful? Yes. Pain is involved. Discipline brings stability. Currency re-valuation has to follow currency de-valuation. Expansion is NOT an eternal condition. The fact that Bernanke does not get this shows that his philosophy of life is incomplete. He is terrified of the shadow side of life. Understandably. But we cannot endure as a nation pretending that life is made of only days and no nights, of only wealth and no poverty, of only victories and no defeats, of only hubris and no punishment for hubris.

The higher your mountain of debt expansion, the lower your valley of debt deflation. It is a law as explicit as the laws of physics.

Anonymous said...

One last report for you KUNTS.

In Portland because of the RE tax credit, inner city homes under $300k are now impossible to find.

Portland is actually in a BUBBLE right now, let's call it Bubble-2, serious talk about extending this credit after expiration Nov 31, 2009. If they don't extend, then there will be no more customers, for now they have filled the balloon with hot-air, and there is pandemonium of first-time buyers to buy any shit-shack, just like the best of times.

Too bad fucking BEND, couldn't get this kind of hard-on with any credit. No our Bend is too far gone, and no possible hope of real-jobs, and over-built to boot with STD's.

But just wanted to mention that only 3+hrs from Bend, there be a place that was like Bend in 2005.

blackdog said...

"Astoria /Warrenton is a great place"

Too much rain and grayness -- depressing. If it wasn't for the rain we'd probably move to Portland.

"the older I get I don't really like hot,hot weather."

The older I get, the more I like the heat and hate the cold. Seems like I never feel warm in Bend anymore.

Anonymous said...

HBN Astoria is actually MUCH better than it used to be.

But its still Bend in the Rain.

blackdog said...

"But its still Bend in the Rain."

I'll pass, then.

Didn't the Lewis & Clark expedition spend one winter camped at Astoria and nearly went insane because of the weather?

Anonymous said...

HBM Said...
"The older I get, the more I like the heat and hate the cold. Seems like I never feel warm in Bend anymore."

Why don't you try turning off your computer and getting the fuck out of your cave.

Anonymous said...

Hey, Bend made the Today show this morning--plowing what looked like about six inches of wet snow.

####

HBM--if you don't mind being in the middle of nowhere, how about Brookings:

"Perhaps most unusual is the climate. Brookings and Harbor are in an anomalous pocket of warm weather. It is believed to be due, in part, to a coastline the runs east-west, like Santa Barbara's, rather than north-south.

Whatever the cause, the result is weather warmer than not only the rest of Oregon coast, but also the northern California coast. Nonetheless it is usually still balmy when temperatures inland become uncomfortably hot."

http://www.oregoncoast.net/brookingsweather.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brookings,_Oregon

blackdog said...

"Hey, Bend made the Today show this morning--plowing what looked like about six inches of wet snow."

Told ya. Now the whole world knows about Bend's shitty climate -- as well as its real estate scams, its high unemployment, etc.

Oh yeah, we're gonna be a REAL popular place.

"HBM--if you don't mind being in the middle of nowhere, how about Brookings:"

I do mind being in the middle of nowhere, and I understand Brookings is very wet. Or am I wrong about that?

blackdog said...

"Why don't you try turning off your computer and getting the fuck out of your cave."

Because my computer is a source of warmth!

Anonymous said...

Told ya. Now the whole world knows about Bend's shitty climate -- as well as its real estate scams, its high unemployment, etc.

Oh yeah, we're gonna be a REAL popular place.

"HBM--if you don't mind being in the middle of nowhere, how about Brookings:"

I do mind being in the middle of nowhere, and I understand Brookings is very wet.


You just need to get to Palm Springs or Sun City. This is the PNW....You're gonna bitch about the weather period. It's too wet, it's too cold....fuggin A dude, spare me the drama.

It's wet on the west side of the mountains and it's cold on the east side of the mountains. Nothing has changed, it's always been this way....nothing has changed. You've been here long enough to know this so why the "this place is a shithole" attitude after all these years?

PopGoesBend said...

The Shire: When Dreams Become Delusions

n doing advance research about foreclosures in Bend, Oregon, I happened across local news coverage of a most absurd housing development. A planned community with Old World architectural detailing designed to resemble a Lord of the Rings hobbit village, the Shire represents a prime example of irrational excesses that an untrammeled housing market can nurture. I intended to take pictures of the now bankrupt and foreclosed development so I could write a post ridiculing those behind its creation, until I learned one of them had committed suicide.

The Recession Roadtrip charted a course through Bend in central Oregon specifically because of the community's unusually high rate of foreclosure. At around 4 percent, Deschutes County's per capita foreclosure rate is half that of Vegas, but still two to three times any other shire4.JPGcounty in Oregon. As I wrote last week, the fairly pervasive role of mortgage fraud throughout the local real estate market's expansion sets up the community for a steep fall.

Developer Ron Meyers originated the concept of building a community inspired by medieval fantasy and Old World architecture. He partnered with former emergency room doctor Lynn McDonald to secure financing for the project. Lynn and his wife Janet signed for a $3.4 million loan from Umpqua Bank in December 2004, and building began in fall 2005.
...........

(continued at the link)

blackdog said...

"You've been here long enough to know this so why the "this place is a shithole" attitude after all these years?"

Your question is like asking somebody why he decided to divorce his wife after 24 years. It's been a slow, cumulative process of disenchantment and disillusionment. I've changed, Bend has changed (not climate-wise but otherwise) and we're not compatible anymore.

Anonymous said...

right on, that's fair but it doesn't make it a shithole for a lot of people.

I agree, this place has changed but it's still pretty nice at the core. I am not one who cares about big houses and bling, I like outdoor stuff and this place has it all.

I do think many of the people who have shown up in the last decade are pretty kooky folks but I ignore them and just do what I do. I am glad to see the population shrink a little. I am happy with poverty with a view and i'd like to keep it that way if possible.

blackdog said...

"right on, that's fair but it doesn't make it a shithole for a lot of people."

Never said it was. If you like it, fine. I do get annoyed by all the hype about it being fucking "paradise," though.

To continue the analogy, I guess that's like when somebody tells you what a wonderful woman your ex-wife is.

Anonymous said...

It's fun to compare Blackdog's comments to those of Jack Elliott. It's like night and day.

http://socal2bend.blogspot.com/



*

I thought it is funny that Buster is "moving his assets to SE Asia".

Does that mean that you're shipping that rental house you're always talking about over to SE Asia?

What makes you think Asia is a good place to "ride out the storm".

If you think the economy is the biggest factor around -- just wait until you see what happens with global warming.

Your beach front property in Malaysia is going to be submerged in saltwater.

Anonymous said...

I agree, this place has changed but it's still pretty nice at the core. I am not one who cares about big houses and bling, I like outdoor stuff and this place has it all.

###

A BIG fuck-you,

Bend is rotten to the core, and that is a fundamental premise of BB2, and if you dont' know that or see that then what the fuck are you doing on BB2?

Anonymous said...

I thought it is funny that Buster is "moving his assets to SE Asia".

*

Nope, he's moving BP and maybe HP, and DP and rent them out to Asian men by the hour. I think HP will really like the weather in SE-A and quit bitching.

BP is his only real ASSet. But you got to make income on what you can.

BB2 is now reach the zenith of a bunch of old women bullshitting at a bridge party. Fucking pathetic.

Anonymous said...

A BIG fuck-you,

Bend is rotten to the core, and that is a fundamental premise of BB2, and if you dont' know that or see that then what the fuck are you doing on BB2?


Aaaww, fuck you too sweety!.

Too much Kool-Aid?...is that why you're so grumpy? If it's rotten to the core then why not get the fuck out?

So let me get this straight...I can't post on this blog unless it's about what a dump Bend is?

While I completely agree that Bend has some serious issues. Rotten at the core it is not. I guess if you came here to golf and drive an sparkly SUV around town, you probably never got a look at the core. I meet a lot of people with my job. I am always amazed at the percentage of people that live here but don't really like outdoor activity....and I ain't talking the dog park or golf. I would say it's somewhere in the range of 60% of the people I meet that I think to myself....why the fuck would you live here, it's fucking cold six months out of the year.

So ya, if your bitter, you should move on. This place sucks for you and we're tired of hearing about it.

Gonna go hike up a mountain the dark and see if I can fill my tag before work this morning....later on whiner kooks!

Anonymous said...

When you are in your 20's or 30's, in prime physical shape, this is a good place to live.
When you get into your 40's or 50's, you are more concerned with your family, careers, and saving for retirement.
Not so good anymore.

Anonymous said...

Spot on with the do-it-while-you're-young part. I couldn't STAND being in the office working on most of the few true summer days. It would drive me nuts. At least when I lived in Santa Cruz, I could go surfing, THEN go to work. Dawn patrol made it worthwhile. Oh yeah - I was in my 20s and 30s then. I forgot.

Anonymous said...

"Told ya. Now the whole world knows about Bend's shitty climate -- as well as its real estate scams, its high unemployment, etc."

Does the whole world watch the friggin' Today Show?

Bewert said...

Bend would be a lot better off if the city had collected SDCs and used them for infrastructure. You guys ain't seen nothing yet when it comes to the city budget. But then pretty much no one, including the Council, reads it.

####

Re: ...hike up a mountain...

I find it simpler to sleep on the mountain.

Deer or elk?

Anonymous said...

I find it simpler to sleep on the mountain.

Deer or elk?


That's a great way to get your scent all over the place you want to hunt and prevent anything from bedding down for the day....seriously not a good idea but whatever floats your boat.

I am in my 40's, 60 hour a week job, 2 kids and a wife...spending the night camping (even if it was a good idea) is usually not an option.

It's deer rifle season at the moment....elk starts on the 17th.

blackdog said...

Okay, I'm going to stun everybody by saying something GOOD about Bend weather:

Today is a classically gorgeous autumn day -- and far more typical of Bend's October weather than the crap we had last weekend.

Weather-wise, it's hard to beat Bend's Indian summer ... when we get one.

Anonymous said...

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/prnewswire/200910061749PR_NEWS_USPR_____NY88423.htm


USA Mobility Inc. (Nasdaq: USMO) will replace Cascade Bancorp (Nasdaq: CACB), and BJ’s Restaurants Inc. (Nasdaq: BJRI) will replace Frontier Financial Corp. (Nasdaq: FTBK) in the S&P SmallCap 600. Cascade Bancorp and Frontier Financial both have market capitalizations below $40 million, ranking them 599th and 600th in the index, respectively.

Bewert said...

"USA Mobility is a provider of wireless communications solutions to the healthcare, government, enterprise and emergency response sectors. Headquartered in Alexandria, VA, the company will be added to the S&P SmallCap 600 GICS Wireless Telecommunication Services Sub-Industry index."

Bewert said...

Re: That's a great way to get your scent all over the place you want to hunt and prevent anything from bedding down for the day....seriously not a good idea but whatever floats your boat.

####

So you want them to bed down? Always seemed easier to shoot them when they are walking around...

I would go someplace below a ridge, where I knew they had to come over to water, and then get up before dawn and wait. Althougn one year it stormed and I had to stick my gun but in between some rocks to survive a little avalanche as I crossed a snowfield.

And another I had a mountain lion jump in between me and a buck I was tracking in the snow. Lion jumped a 20 foot gully like it was nothing. Quite a day, that was.

Bewert said...

Dems can suck, too:

http://www.thenation.com/doc/20091019/jones

So we out them.

I am close, but I haven't given up hope yet.

Anonymous said...

So you want them to bed down? Always seemed easier to shoot them when they are walking around...

They don't hang around period when the pressure is on. Camping in the middle of the ground you intend to hunt is not going to help the situation. Right now with the full moon, they are bedded long before the sun comes up...you have no choice but to seek them out where they sleep.

I agree that it would be "ideal" to shoot them out in the open but in the local unit, there is no "out in the open". Eastern Oregon allows for glassing from a high point but around here, you'd be glassing the tops of trees.

Bewert said...

We used tree stands a lot back in Wisco, but in Utah I would just find a nice perch above a pass towards water, far enough away to not be winded. It was pretty easy because I could sleep in the patrol shacks at Alta and walk to the pass in the morning.

Is there more pressure on the game locally in Bend these days?

I know the morning the alpha elk buck and doe got killed out in front of Widgi right as we were heading out, because some asshole was go about 80 in the dark, that we never saw that herd again.

The sound was awful. Both the wail of a car going from fast to squealing braking and impact, and the shots from the sheriff putting them down. The rest of the herd tore the hell out of some places they were so upset.

It took us hours to fix it, and we were all pretty damned pissed, too. We loved the elk crossing through.

That truly, truly sucked.

Good hunting. Nothing like wild game sometimes.

Bewert said...

Digby states it better than I can:

"One thing that should be done is that Democrats of all stripes should stop pretending that Democrats are anything more than slightly better than Republicans on these issues and only because they have to include unions and the working poor in their coalition in order to get elected. And even then it doesn't keep them from quietly selling themselves to highest bidder while they're still in office. Once they're out, they immediately pull on a metaphorical micro-mini and start trolling K Street for Johns."

Anonymous said...

I find it simpler to sleep on the mountain man. Broke Back mountain comes to mind.

Deer or elk? Who is to say, when warm blood flows, lubrication is always good.

- Bewert

###

Yes, BP best time to go huntin for cali hunter pussy in 20 years.

Bewert said...

Never lived in Cali. I'm from fucking northern Wisconsin, about as far from Cali as your mind from a useful thought. I learned to drive on frozen lakes, asshole. Go back to your porn.

Anonymous said...

Our pussy is no longer a pussy, now that he in JewTah with man-wife, he real Mormon man.

So far from Bend and so close to god.

BP did you notice today that Code-Pink has now endorsed Obama's war in Afghan? They're also going to endorse the war in Pakistan, and Iran.

It's funny how the opposition to Bush is now 100% in support of war. Funny indeed! Who could have guessed?

FYI: Code-Pink is a feminist/lesbian PAC that is a front for the Democratic party, but they ran all the anti-bush rally's during the election, on a anti-war platform.

Anonymous said...

Wasn't "Brokeback Mountain" filmed in Wisconsin?

Anonymous said...

While the KUNTS of BB2 play with their boyfriends dicks, the US empire crumbles.

###
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-a-financial-revolution-with-profound-political-implications-1798712.html
###

Robert Fisk: A financial revolution with profound political implications

Such large financial movements will have major political effects in the Middle East

Wednesday, 7 October 2009



The plan to de-dollarise the oil market, discussed both in public and in secret for at least two years and widely denied yesterday by the usual suspects – Saudi Arabia being, as expected, the first among them – reflects a growing resentment in the Middle East, Europe and in China at America's decades-long political as well as economic world dominance.

Nowhere has this more symbolic importance than in the Middle East, where the United Arab Emirates alone holds $900bn (£566bn) of dollar reserves and where Saudi Arabia has been quietly co-ordinating its defence, armaments and oil policies with the Russians since 2007.

Bewert said...

Re: Such large financial movements will have major political effects in the Middle East

News you won't see on Fox. And why Iran is such a threat. It's not the nukes, it's their new oil bourse:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CLA410A.html

####

Dollar going down? Play with GDX options:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=gdx

####

Dumbfuck, why are you so fixated on Brokeback Mountain? I've never seen it so you'll have to tell me about the good parts.

####

Funny, I can't find that on Code Pinks website. They are protesting Israeli cosmetics today, though:

http://www.codepink4peace.org/section.php?id=40

According to WaPo they were protesting the Afghan war yesterday:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/05/AR2009100503257.html?nav=rss_opinion/columns

Gotta get your BS straight.

Bewert said...

PBS Frontline: "Obama's War"

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/obamaswar/

Hopefully he is smart enough to take the JFK path in Vietnam and ignore the generals who want ever more troops. We will see soon.

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