Sunday, September 20, 2009

What exactly will happen for the next 20 years in the housing market.

In trying to figure out what will happen in the future, I try to figure out if there is some sort of "model" that applies to the situation.

The housing bubble bursting is sort of hard to nail down, since it is pretty unprecedented. Housing prices as a whole have never really come down in this country. It's also hard to remember, but houses also used to not have such a "speculative" element to their pricing. House flipping was pretty marginal business, pretty much under the purview of sleazy infomercials until the late 90's.

But I think I have the housing market modeled pretty well, in a way that I think reflects the respective payoffs to the parties involved (and maybe I've talked about this before... I'm getting old).

It's our old friend, options.

See, when "we" build a house, we are "long" one house. Now, how it is financed is a secondary concern, but the asset, the house, exists, and we are "long" that house.

How it is financed does cleave the payoffs from this asset in a fairly interesting way.

When you buy a house, if you pay all cash, the payoff is simple: you gain and/or lose dollar for dollar whatever the house gains or loses. Pretty simple, the all-cash example is linear.

But when you buy a house, using one or more non-recourse mortgages (ie they can only take the house on default), you can't really lose monetarily anything once the house goes below the collective principle of the mortgage(s).

The "strike price" of the home is the sum of the mortgage principle. If you "cash out" (ie sell), you get the amount over and above the mortgage sum owed. If the sell price is below that, you simply get nothing.

Of course, it's more complicated than that, since there is also a cost borne of the hit to your credit record, and any sort of "psychic" or other costs, such as mental anguish, and such.

But this does model the purchase of a home using non-recourse debt.

So what is the payoff to the other side?

Well, if you study your options trading strategies, and I have, you know that to simulate a "long" payoff, you need to buy 1 call option (that's us, the home buyer), and sell 1 put option.

As an aside, a call option gives you the right (not the obligation) to buy a share of stock at a given price in a given period of time. A put option gives you the right (not obligation) to "put" a share of stock to someone at a given price within a given period of time.

So the "payoff" diagram of a call option looks like this (strike price = $30):

Call option payoff, $30 strike price.

So, say instead of $30 strike prices on shares of stock, think $300,000 mortgage on your home. Anything above that, you win, anything below... well, you just walk away.

So, we know we are "long" a house, financing ignored. And the home buyer is really long a call option, with a strike price of the mortgage amount. And for illustration purposes we'll ignore the fact that actually the home buyers "expiration date" and strike price change a bit everyday, since the mortgage is being paid off bit by bit thus lowering the strike price. We'll sort of look at it as a call option with a shorter expiration (like 1 year), with a sort of "blended" strike price of the average owed during the year.

So the other side of this transaction is the bank, and if you know anything about options, you know that they are essentially short a put option.

If they were long a put option, they could "put" the asset (ie house) to someone at a fixed price, something that's nice when prices are falling. But they aren't long, they are short, or the exact opposite. They can have the asset put to them at a fixed price, aka the mortgage principle.

So if the buyer owes $300K, and walks from the house worth $200K, the bank is out $100K. Simple.

So this is our housing market model: Buyers are long call options, banks are short puts the summation of these 2 positions equating to being long 1 house.

You might wonder, "Why in the hell would the banks ever go into a business with severely limited upside, and one hell of a lot of downside?"

Well, that's a good question. And the reason is simple, and was intimated to earlier: Banks receive "premium" (ie your mortgage interest payments) for bearing risk.

Think of an interest-only mortgage: The bank can receive (and invest) this amount every month for 30 years, and at the end they will either receive nothing (ie the house is worth more than the mortgage), or they will have to pay some amount that the house has fallen below the mortgage.

And before now, the idea that a house would be worth less in any decent period in the future was pretty absurd. In fact, this "bet" for banks was, and always has been, a pretty safe one.

But let's get back to our little housing model. To figure out the value of our home buyers "call option" we'd use Black-Scholes. I don't want to go into the mechanics of the formula, primarily because I don't fully understand them, but I do know a few things about option pricing.

When you are buying a call option, the price goes UP when:

  1. The volatility of returns goes up.
  2. The strike price goes down.
  3. The time to expiration is increased.
These are all pretty straightforward assumptions.

When the price of a stock is all over the place, the options for that stock, both puts and calls, go up in price.

When the "strike price" goes down, the value of a call goes up, since it's intrinsic value goes up.

When the time to expiration increases, you have more time for the stock to go above your strinke price, and so the value of a call goes up.

So, let's think about the historical aspects of this state of affairs, a bunch of Americo's long call options, and a bunch of banks short puts on the largest store of wealth on Earth, the US housing market.

Well, with respect to Black-Scholes, we can say that the call option buyer probably wants lower volatility, since that lowers the price of their option. The put seller actually can charge more at times of high volatility.

But US housing was never really volatile before 1997. Up a few percent here & there. Maybe once in awhile there would be a regional spike higher or lower, but on the whole home prices moved very steadily, if not slowly, higher. Home volatility has been historically low.

Lowering the "strike price" on a home, basically means increasing the down payment. This pushes up the value of a home owners "call option". It means they have more to lose if the price goes down.

The fundamental thing a large down payment does is it moves the strike price to the left, while the home value remains the same. The home buyer already has built-in "intrinsic value", and a pretty good cushion on which to make money. Similarly, the banks "loss point" moves way down (to the left, to the left), and given fairly stable returns over time, can pretty much count on a long, stable stream of interest payments from a call buyer who has got their financial ass on the line.

OK, so we've had this regime of stable returns, steadily incraesing prices, and fairly hefty down payments until about the past decade.

Then, what happens in any speculative bubble happened to buyers of home call options: They started buying more and more, and banks having lost their senses, also started participating, despite the fact that the increased volatility had actually imperiled the "value" of their vast holding of short puts (home mortgages).

The volatility pushed UP what people were willing to pay for call options, and increased the "premium" received for short puts. And slowly but surely, down payments shrunk, literally to nothing; ie the strike prices on homes equaled their value, and call buyers had almost nothing at risk except the transaction costs, which had actually grown considerably... but were still dwarfed by the potential gains.

And while prices were going up wildly, no really cared. Call prices, bought at little or nothing due to shriveling credit standards, leveraged returns to the sky. Instead of putting 20% down on a home & living in it, people put 3% down on 10 homes (that's 7, plus 3 more on credit cards, so I can retire in the Bahamas!).

And if your house went up 10% when you put 20% down, that was a nice 50% payoff.

But hell, if you put 3% down on 10 homes, and prices went up 10%, that was over 300% on the same money! Even with thick 1%+ transaction costs, it was still worth it.

And so our bubble was created. As usual, with high volatility and increasing strike prices (leverage), and the inherent risk associated with both.

So where are we now? Yes, yes.

Strangely, we have too many homes. That would be that pesky pursuit of 300% returns on 10 homes, not 1, kicking in.

Yeah, should have seen that coming.

Second, the banks hold short put options on assets (those 10 homes no one wants) that have plummeted in value. Yeah, this would be that pesky mortgage crisis I've been hearing about.

Yes, banks ALWAYS have a fairly limited upside on speculative bubbles, but typically (and theoretically) unlimited downside... well, at least to zero, or 100% losses on the assets.

Given that the cumulative sum of US homes was in the low to mid $20 trillion dollar range when this party got started, and prices have fallen off 40%, AND banks had the good sense to spike the party punchbowl with down payments of near 0%, well you've got yourself a recipe for a financial conflagration the likes of which cannot be imagined.

That tells us where we are. And might I add that this blog was around before this monster catastrophe even got started, way back in Dec 2006. And I'll try not to pull a muscle patting myself on the back here, but put all these option analogies together -- the increasing volatility, the shrinking "strike prices" (down payments), and you can see that while the individual call option owners (that's us) had quite a bit to lose (the collective "net worth" of homes in 2006 was many trillions), it was ALWAYS the banks that had the most to lose in a truly colossal meltdown of home prices.

You and me? We can just walk away. The banks just keep losing. And losing.

Or do they?

Our True and Goodly leaders have seen their way clear to taking our money, yes all that medicade and social security cash, and give it back to the fine local put sellers who are losing their shirts (ie Patty Moss et al).

So actually, our model is somewhat off. Because way down in the depths of the left hand side of our option payoff graph, the banks own a long put: They are putting their losses to the American people.

Way, way off to the left... something strange is happening. The banks have received something of almost mond-boggling value: A "free" put option.

Or is it 2 free puts options?

Because, if you look at the payoff diagram of a short put, you see it is the "horizontal" mirroring of a long put. A short put option has a flat payoff as prices increase (simple interest payment collection), but bends lower as prices fall (foreclosure).

Let's say banks on the whole have $15 trillion in mortgages outstanding. That "bend" lower is at $15 trillion and lower. But somehow, banks losses are being capped at an amount equal to what is probably their total capitalization, or about $1-2 trillion, I'd guess.

So somewhere around the $13 trillion mark, the linear negative payoff flattens. More absurdly, it actually seems to turn UP, and head back towards ZERO.

So the banks REAL PAYOFF seems to be a flat line, with a "V" in the middle. It pays banks to be nowhere near the bottom of this V. Be far above, or far below... but not in it's deadly center.

This raises all sorts of issues of fiduciary peril, the likes of which I hope you can clearly see.

But what I find far more interesting is the "offset".

We're STILL only long that one house (or one hundred millions houses... same diff). And Obama Jeebus W Bush has issued the banks somewhere between 1 and 2 FREE put options, meaning their losses are CAPPED below certain loss levels.

So WHO is paying for that put option... or options?

Ah yes... the answer is, of course, us! The American Taxpayer is paying for it.

So, to balance the equation of issuing banks a put option, we are going SHORT a put.

So now the tables are turned. What we thought was our collective "long call"on our homes, with unlimited upside and limited downside, has transformed. Our government has FORCED us to issue a SHORT PUT on the American housing stock, subjecting US to the full brunt of losses below a certain strike price.

But we don't receive interest. And with volatility at it's maximum, the value being lost is worth TRILLIONS.

THIS is the legacy we are leaving to posterity: The payoff of buying a home in this country has been fundamentally altered. Your call option is still in place. You can still win when/if prices go up.

But lurking on the dark side of the mortgage collective is the implicit short put option that will bail out the banks, AND STICK YOU WITH THE FULL BRUNT OF THE LOSSES.

The FLAT left-hand side of the payoff matrix is A LIE. YOU own the losses down there, NOT banks.

Maybe we should have known. How can banks, with their relatively thin capitalization, sustain losses FOREVER? Answer, they can't and they never could. There was always an implicit saving put option owned down there for them in the form of a government bailout.

So you are, as a home buyer, buying a huge call option when you buy a house, and now you KNOW that you are also PAYING for a put option as well. Never really "knew" it before... circumstances had always let it expire worthless, cuz prices inexoribly & continually went up. Not anymore. Prices CAN go down. A lot.

That fucking put option can take EVERYTHING.

Hmmmm...

This whole housing "investment" scheme seems a LOT less attractive. My upside is "unlimited" yes... but my fucking downside is also UNLIMITED. There's a "flat spot" there in the middle... but damn, we sliced through that like butter, and went straight to massive bank bailouts like flies go to shit.

Yes, yes... I will think twice about ever buying into this payoff matrix. It's not as good as it once was. Before now, it was all caviar and Lamborghini's. Now there's real pain if things don't work out.

No... I don't think I'll be doing that again.

So now... You Will See It Coming. Because THAT is what is going to happen. No more difficult to figure out than simply modeling the situation, and analyzing the payoffs.

It was this easy in 2006. But strangely, Patty Moss and the vast pool of experts the Bully and the rest of Bend media relied on had a curious dearth of insight into the problem.

This is a problem No One Saw Coming.

I did. You probably did.

Know thyself, motherfucker.

So when, in 5 or 10 years, when housing demand has simply Gone Away, and the Bully is interviewing Experts Who Cannot Explain What Is Going On, you'll know:

The payoffs have changed. "We" CAN LOSE. We are losing. But the debt? It's our kids problem, so who gives a shit.

Well, you should, cuz it's not really our kids... unless you're damn near dead already. It's us. The debt bomb is ticking, and we owe. Civilizations always die impaled on the pike of debt. Always.

The problem isn't going broke, it's worse than that. We'll lose this country.

To see our "bankers", look East.

Both the borrower & lender have nukes.

And a lender with nukes will always recover the vig.
Cowboy hats & bikini's... cures anythingDamn...
Thumbs up to NUKES!

210 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 210   Newer›   Newest»
IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I've always LOVED the argument that somehow the massive bailouts are GOOD for me.

"If we don't do this now, the problem will be even BIGGER in the future!"

"This helps EVERYONE by increasing the value of ALL our homes!"

No.

The bank bailout was a straight transfer of the largest amount of wealth in World history to crooks, like Patty Moss. And I am PAYING. I am not BENEFITING. Not at all.

I will pay, you will pay. The debt bomb is ticking, and it will explode in either inflation or taxation form. Both are equally deadly.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Don't buy the bullshit that "No one's losing" in this bailout. Bullshit. The banks are WINNING, and YOU ARE LOSING.

This isn't some sort of "synergistic win" for all of us collectively; someone is winning and someone is losing.

Believe me, it is WE who are losing. We are borrowing TRILLIONS, and we'll pay it back via taxation or inflation, both are 100% DEADLY to growth, which is the only real cure for this thing.

Believe me, we are well & truly screwed.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

This guy is awesome...

Deflationary Collapse Dead Ahead

You have heard me talk about this before.

I have written Tickers for more than two years.

I have sent multiple petitions to our Congress, and you have signed them.

I raised an unbelievable amount of Hell when TARP was under debate, arguing that we must allow those banks that are underwater to collapse and we must force the bad debt from the system.

The fact of the matter is that you have been lied to for the last decade about our economic state, and if we do not divert from the road we are on our economy, our monetary system and our government WILL COLLAPSE.

Not "might collapse."

Not "might get bad."

WILL COLLAPSE.

It is a mathematical certainty, and here is the proof.

Now I want to present two charts - the first being a simple mathematical chart of two functions - a GDP that grows at 5% annually and debt that grows at the actual compound rate it has grown since 1953, 8.7946%.

I started both debt and GDP at the same value, $10,000, for the purpose of this series (even though in fact debt was higher than GDP.)

You'll notice that due to the fact the debt isn't a constant (and neither is GDP) these are not exact matches - but they're pretty close!

Now let's go forward 20 years, maintaining the same assumptions. That is, if you and your wife or husband, boyfriend/girlfriend sleep together tonight and conceive a child, this is what our economy will look like in terms of debt and GDP at the approximate time they go to college:

You think so eh? Debt outstanding will be six times greater in 20 years. GDP will be three times greater, but having started from a much lower level, will of course continue to lag.

Do you really believe that those interest payments can be made?

Look at that chart.

Now look up above at the top chart.

That is reality right here, right now, today.

Tell me it doesn't turn into the bottom chart.

I didn't make these numbers up folks. That compound annual debt growth rate is real.


CONT...

Anonymous said...

Homer, I'm worried about you, there's NOT a fucking thing in this blog today about Bend.

We were hoping you would read the CBN there was tons of blogger-fodder there,

We were hoping you would comment on CACB's penny stock being bought up all over the country.

I get the feeling from reading this boiler-plate that your not even in Bend anymore, that you have gone national, and that your just back posting your national content to this site.

I disagree with everything you say, just look at the housing prices in USA since 1880 post civil-war on a continual graph, and you can see they are as volatile as any stock market, prior to cookie-cutter 1910 homers were expensive and non-volatile, but post 1910 always volatile.

I think your a stock broker obsessed with BULLSHIT, stocks are bullshit worthless paper sold to the masses, but REAL-ESTATE homer is real, but you have lived and will die a pauper, so who gives fuck what life long loser-renter thinks?

I concur your a good man, and someday too bad we all can't meet, but your stock-market is a collective con, on the scale of made-off, and simply wish to apply that logic to Real-Estate, yes easy money drove up prices, and you obviously are a young man, because you not know the 1970's and know they just like now, and you NOT know Bend to know we have always had roller-coaster real-estate prices forever.

FUCK YOUR STOCK MARKET HOMER.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

More importantly, Geithner, Paulson, Bernanke, Bush, Obama: all have emphasized that "we must get more credit to consumers and businesses" as their primary mantra ever since this crisis began.

They are pressing this position because if we do not expand credit further the existing banks and other institutions that have bad debt on their books will collapse - and they know it.

The correct action to take in 2000 was to force the bad credit from the system and accept the impact on GDP. It would have caused about a 10% contraction in GDP at that time - a mild Depression (or a really nasty recession, depending on how you count it.)

Now, having instead blown another credit bubble, we essentially doubled the debt in the system over the last ten years, while GDP grew by about 40%.

The result of this was a horrible stock market crash, 6.7 million jobs lost (and underreported), personal income tax receipts are down 21%, corporate tax receipts are down 58%, the deficit is tracking at $1.8 trillion this year alone (and $9 trillion more predicted over the next decade), government is now spending nearly 200% of taxes taken in, 13% of mortgages are either delinquent or in foreclosure, more than 20% of all FHA loans are delinquent or in foreclosure, home prices have fallen by half in many places and are not done declining and the rest of the world is wondering if we're going to try to hyperinflate and destroy our currency.

If we try to double our debt once again over the next ten years we won't make it there. The available free cash flow cannot support the interest payments now, and won't be able to if we add more debt to the system.

I understand the political difficulty of closing all the major banks in the United States, selling off their assets and making good on their deposits when required. I recognize the damage this will do to pension funds and bond investors. I am fully cognizant of the fact that this means taking an intentional depression here and now.

But if we don't it will in fact be worse later.

Not "might" be worse.

WILL be worse.

The odds are high that if we attempt to add more debt to the system, instead of clearing debt through defaults and bankruptcies, that we will precipitate not only a Depression but a full-on monetary collapse.

Such an outcome would destroy our economy, result in almost everyone who is currently middle class and has any debt whatsoever being rendered penniless, unemployment could easily reach 30% or more and the government would be unable to fund any of its social programs, including Social Security and Medicare.

Now think that through - 100 million homeless, penniless, angry Americans searching for the people responsible for what amounts to a "sudden stop" in the economy along with the cessation of all social assistance payments. What sort of odds would you like on civil disorder (at best) or a revolution (at worst)?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I ask Congress: Is either of those possible outcomes an acceptable risk? If not, then we cannot stay on the path you are following today.

We must take the right path.

Policymakers must have demanded of them an explanation for how they intend to get away from the simple laws of exponential growth when debt is 375% of GDP, has expanded faster than GDP and must continue to do so to avoid the deflationary outcome. They will not be able to do so, as the mathematics render such an explanation impossible to provide.

In order to prevent the immediate creation of asset bubbles the interest rate charged must always be greater than the risk-free rate of return in the economy - that is, the growth rate. Always. Yet this guarantees, as a direct consequence of the laws of exponential growth, a fundamental mathematical concept, that debt defaults and thus "clearance" of the system, along with the contraction of GDP and the economy and failure of both lenders and borrowers, must occur on occasion in order to clear the system. The longer you try to avoid these normal business cycles in any debt-based monetary system the worse the crashes are, and if you try to avoid them for too long you get a collapse instead.

This is basic, fundamental, sixth-grade math and that the leaders in this country refuse to accept it is an outrage against the people and an intentional act of deception that we must not allow to stand.

We are one cycle away from a collapse - if we're lucky.

We must change our economic course now and accept the contraction that MUST COME in order to save our economic and monetary system.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

NOT a fucking thing in this blog today about Bend...

Actually, I'd say it's quite a bit about Bend.

It's about who gets paid, and who gets ROBBED. Which has always been of great interest in Bend.

It's all about Bend media.

Uses options as an analogy, but this ain't about stocks. It's about figuring out what happens next.

I'd rather know that, than hammer away at the mad ravings & lies of Patty Moss... which I will probably do next week.

Anonymous said...

Bend will lag many other places in recovery in home prices, due to lack of major employers, it's location, and lack of immigrant inflow.
There are 37 Million,foreign born immigrants in the US. The U.S. allows 1,500,000.legal immigrants per year. 15,000,000 new people will need a new home every decade. If you are an area that attacts immigrants, you can expect real estate to turn around sooner.
Unfortuately, Bend is not one of those places.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Median Incomes and Economic Obsolescence of Large Homes

Written by Richard K. Green, Director, USC Lusk Center for Real Estate

One thing that has led me to believe that the housing market in Southern California is largely at bottom is the fact that many houses are selling at less than replacement cost. While such a discrepancy can exist for a long time in places with declining population, replacement cost is a pretty sound fundamental for determining the minimum sustainable house price in areas with growth.

The report on median incomes released yesterday, though, suggests to me a flaw with my line of reasoning. While the average new house has grown about 20 percent in size over the past ten years, median household incomes have actually fallen a bit. If house size is a proxy for house quality (and we have good statistical evidence to think that it is), then house quality has outstripped the ability of people to pay for it.

When comparing market prices to replacement cost, we really need to think about depreciated replacement cost. Depreciation comes in three flavors: physical, functional and economic. Physical depreciation happens because things wear out as they age--it is what Congress is thinking of when it allows depreciation deductions for investment property and plant and equipment.

Functional depreciation happens when a component of a capital asset does not perform its function well by current standards. Think of a furnace that uses lots of energy, and could be replaced by something more efficient. It is possible that it could work as a furnace for years, but it still would be best replaced by something more efficient.

Finally, there is economic depreciation, which happens when the demand for something (like Detroit real estate) disappears. It is possible that large houses have incurred economic depreciation because people lack sufficient income to afford them. If this is true, values can fall below original construction cost and stay there for some time.

Such considerations do not, of course, apply to reasonably well located, modest homes--I continue to believe that 1500 square foot houses in the San Fernando Valley and the central part of the San Gabriel Valley are reasonably priced now. But the market for larger houses may be troubled for some time yet to come.

One other implication: builders should construct smaller houses in the years to come. This vindicates a prediction I once made. Unfortunately, I made it in 1990.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

We were hoping you would read the CBN there was tons of blogger-fodder there,

My reading of CBN for any sort of "news" has dropped to zero. Seriously... how much "news" is in this worthless rag anymore?

A Battle of Wits with the Incredible Hulce is no more a battle than a man vs a moth. Beating up on this woman is gratuitous, and like beating a retard at chess. She's fucking idiot. It would be shameful to tear her a new ass.

I'll do it next week.

LavaBear said...

I like the options analogy. The one thing you didn't mention is the existence of the likes of Fannie, Freddie, FHA and all the other government subsidies in place forever giving the banks places to sell off loans. Thus the banks really didn't give a crap about the option they just wanted the transaction. The Government has always been the option holder. (implicitly up until the Chinese called and suggested Fannie and Freddie be explicit.)

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I should have gone for the easy meat... there so much low-hanging fruitiness in here it's unbelievable.


With grant on the line, Bend looks to create airport jobs

If the city gets an extension, however, it might have to start over and find 214 new jobs, not 82, Andrews said. She hopes state officials would be willing to compromise and grant an extension for just the remaining jobs.

“Given the completely unforeseen and worldwide recession — we’re not talking about a mistake somebody made here, we’re talking about worldwide recession that nobody saw in 2007 when we entered into the agreement — given that situation, we hope they will extend it for two years for 82 jobs,” she said. “That seems like a very reasonable request.”


"Nobody saw coming"... how many more times is that going to be played?

I can already "PREDICT" what course our blessed City Council will take on the matter:

Whatever causes the smallest amount of pain TODAY... that is what they'll do. No matter the cost.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

We haven’t had a spot on the airport for 10 years to put a company. It’s not that we’re happy that Cessna left, but it’s a good opportunity to get a company in there.”

Yes, yes.

The complete abandonment of the Bend airport by virtually EVERY SINGLE LARGE TENANT is a real opportunity.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Strobel knows it’s a tough time for many aviation businesses, but said the departure of businesses like Cessna and Epic has created an unusual opening for something new.

Soooooo.. aviation has basically been shutdown.

What sort of thing do you expect will move into an AIRPORT?

Right... there was that tax-dodging software dude, but you actually turned him down flat.

Nigga pleeze. You ain't gonna have Boeing come knocking. Take that software dudes money. Now.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Finance Director Sonia Andrews said the city has several options if it is unable to find some or all of the new jobs.

First, the city could pay back the state at a rate of $2,500 per job that isn’t created, or a total of $205,000 for all of the 82 required positions.

Alternately, Andrews said the city might be able to wrap the outstanding grant money in with the 25-year loan that was awarded to the city to help pay for the infrastructure.

Or, the city could ask for a two-year extension to next summer’s deadline.


See? Easiest NO PAIN option pursued FIRST.

Second will be the Parilla Loan Wrap, with extra peanut sauce.

NO WAY IN HELL will we actually start paying them back for not creating the jobs. NO WAY.

Do anything but adhere to the loan agreement.

Jam yesterday, and jam tomorrow....

LavaBear said...

>>>What sort of thing do you expect will move into an AIRPORT?

I was thinking they need one of those Bledsoe donkey cum lounges. Seems criminal to make him have to go all the way downtown to get his fill.

Anonymous said...

If the government has to "create" jobs, they probably have little or no use in the "real" world,that us taxpaying slobs live in.
City council apparently has one job-to spend other people's money.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And remember:

If the city gets an extension, however, it might have to start over and find 214 new jobs, not 82, Andrews said. She hopes state officials would be willing to compromise and grant an extension for just the remaining jobs.

So we have fulfilled our bargain on 132 jobs, or about 60% of the loans requirements.

But we're not looking to pay ANYTHING back, and are, in fact, looking to PACK ON that 60% onto the principal.

PAYING THEM OFF would be the CHEAPEST way to go... simply giving back a prorated amount for the jobs we couldn't fill.

But NO. We'd rather COMPLETELY IGNORE any sort of past "fulfilled promises" if it means even the SLIGHTEST PAIN today. Our brilliant city fathers would rather start over 100% with a new, and even more onerous loan (no way in hell will we fill 214 jobs), just to avoid paying ANYTHING today.

Incredible.

have I been misspelling "principal" this whole time? Where is Tim?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Anyone notice that the Bully's "Renters rejoice" made Patrick.net?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

we’re not talking about a mistake somebody made here, we’re talking about worldwide recession that nobody saw in 2007...

I posted 74 fucking times on this blog in 2007 that the shit would hit the fan.

Please, stop saying nobody.

Duncan McGeary said...

YeeHaw!!!

Specially the third babe.

Anonymous said...

Dunc, what is about the third?

Do you think she's winking back at YOU, her lips look like a wet vagina, or something (or two) else?

Duncan McGeary said...

Nah, I just like the hats. These are Bend girls, right?

tim said...

"have I been misspelling "principal" this whole time? Where is Tim?"

I'm your pal.

hbm said...

"I think your a stock broker"

I think Homeboy is a day trader, and not a very successful one. If he was a stock broker he'd be too busy trying to peddle stocks to suckers to post 100,000 words a week like he typically does.

He obviously knows a lot about the technical aspects of finance, but I have to wonder how successful a guy is when his big night out is a trip to the Redmond Sno-Cap.

Duncan McGeary said...

Pretty wonky stuff. Options?

Eyes glaze.

Must stay awake. He will say something outrageous in the next...

zzzzzzzzzzz

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Funny comment from Dec 10, 2007:

"optimist" posted this:

Bend is a marvelous place to invest. I read all of this, and up until now I withheld my opinion.

I'm an active Bend investor, and have bought dozens of homes in Bend during 2005-2006. I paid over $100k down for each home. I paid less than $150/sqft. I always borrow at 5.5% for 15 years. My units are 100% occupied with positive cash flows.

The negativity I read here leads me to believe that you are all renters, and have no idea of how profitable it is to own real estate in Bend. The values are not going to go down, and people can only make money, and lots of money by buying Bend Real Estate.

There has never been a better time to buy a home in Bend.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

his big night out is a trip to the Redmond Sno-Cap.

Lunch. I don't go out at night. I tend to my crazy-eyed schemes, and such.

tim said...

butter,

That post sounds like a joke. I can't decide if that was real or not.

But certainly people were thinking like that. That's either someone's heartfelt justification, or someone doing some brutally mocking.

Anonymous said...

I think that post was real. I've probably met the idiot that posted that. There were still lots and lots of Kool-aid parties going in Bend in 2007.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I can't decide if that was real or not.

I remember at the time, it sounded perfectly legit. Everyone went after the dude in the comments... there was no "retraction" or anything.

Anonymous said...

Our local daily newspaper offers a great editorial rant this morning about an impending socialist menace, warning ominously of “the specter of a vast and sprawling federal bureaucracy [that] is too horrible to contemplate.”

Is the editorial attacking liberal health care reform ideas like single-payer or the “public option”? Nope – it’s attacking federal aid to education, and it came from the paper’s archives of 1961.

Specifically, the editorial is ripping the Crook County School Board for showing interest in accepting – horrors! – federal money to help with school construction and – double horrors! – teachers’ pay.

“There may be some justification for federal help in school construction, particularly in the more hard-pressed areas of the country,” The Bulletin conceded. “But the proposal to provide federal money for teacher salaries is a piece of political skullduggery.

“The specter of a vast and sprawling federal bureaucracy in control of America’s schools is too horrible to contemplate. We’re convinced that federal money for paying our teachers would be an opening wedge. This must not happen.”

It might be hard for anybody born after, say, 1955 to believe that federal aid to education was once hotly controversial, but it was. When I was on my high school debating team in the mid-1960s, the topic one year was “Resolved: That federal aid to education should be significantly increased.”

The argument on the anti side was that the eeee-vil, tyrannical federal government wanted to “take over” education and extend its slimy, socialistic tentacles into every classroom in America – just as we’re hearing today that the eeee-vil, tyrannical federal government wants to “take over” health care and extend its slimy, socialistic tentacles into every doctor’s office.

Of course conservatives have said pretty much the same thing about every progressive idea going back for more than a hundred years. They said it about Social Security, they said it about Medicare and, as we have just seen, they said it about federal aid to schools. Today only the lunatic fringe of the lunatic fringe wants to abolish these programs, and it would be hard to imagine America without them.

For progressives, in addition to a good laugh, the 1961 Bulletin editorial offers some encouragement. It shows that change for the better does gradually happen – although the conservatives have to be dragged along kicking and screaming every inch of the way.

For conservatives, the lesson of the editorial is that they need a new line. Your old one’s getting mighty tired, folks.

Posted by :
H. Bruce Miller


Love it think you are gonna dodge the issue with me?

Anonymous said...

Ron Paul's] Federal Reserve Transparency Act, HR 1207, [is] now up to 232 co-sponsors. It needs a two-thirds vote with 290 members on board so ... Obama will not veto it.

Ron Paul's office has just confirmed that 290 members are now on board supporting the bill.


Here is the list of 289 supporters (plus Paul equals 290).

Obviously, support in the Senate for the parallel bill is crucial. According to Zero Hedge, there are approximately 25 co-sponsors for Sen. Bernie Sanders' S 604 Bill, "The Federal Reserve Sunshine Act of 2009.

What do you think Hb miller should we audit the fed?Yes or no?

September 19, 2009 6:43 PM

Anonymous said...

Mandatory Insurance Is Unconstitutional
Why an individual mandate could be struck down by the courts.Article Comments (154) more in Opinion »Email Printer
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Text
By DAVID B. RIVKIN JR. AND LEE A. CASEY
Federal legislation requiring that every American have health insurance is part of all the major health-care reform plans now being considered in Washington. Such a mandate, however, would expand the federal government’s authority over individual Americans to an unprecedented degree. It is also profoundly unconstitutional.

An individual mandate has been a hardy perennial of health-care reform proposals since HillaryCare in the early 1990s. President Barack Obama defended its merits before Congress last week, claiming that uninsured people still use medical services and impose the costs on everyone else. But the reality is far different. Certainly some uninsured use emergency rooms in lieu of primary care physicians, but the majority are young people who forgo insurance precisely because they do not expect to need much medical care. When they do, these uninsured pay full freight, often at premium rates, thereby actually subsidizing insured Americans.

The mandate's real justifications are far more cynical and political. Making healthy young adults pay billions of dollars in premiums into the national health-care market is the only way to fund universal coverage without raising substantial new taxes. In effect, this mandate would be one more giant, cross-generational subsidy—imposed on generations who are already stuck with the bill for the federal government's prior spending sprees.

View Full Image

Chad Crowe
Politically, of course, the mandate is essential to winning insurance industry support for the legislation and acceptance of heavy federal regulations. Millions of new customers will be driven into insurance-company arms. Moreover, without the mandate, the entire thrust of the new regulatory scheme—requiring insurance companies to cover pre-existing conditions and to accept standardized premiums—would produce dysfunctional consequences. It would make little sense for anyone, young or old, to buy insurance before he actually got sick. Such a socialization of costs also happens to be an essential step toward the single payer, national health system, still stridently supported by large parts of the president's base.

The elephant in the room is the Constitution. As every civics
As Clint would say Hb miller Who are you?

September 19, 2009 6:

Anonymous said...

http://kohd.com/page/141726

Unemployed Central Oregon people fucking cheerful. Or possibly lying.

Anonymous said...

central oregonians lying? H b miller let me remind you we will not fold we will not let you put us into fema camps we will not follow your socialist mind set or follow your facism hitler doctrine that our government ideals is what we think is right for you? You sir are a traitor to all the people who died in world war 2 and to all the vietnam vets who bravely served our country so fuck you

Anonymous said...

Nice run on sentence there nutball..

FEMA camps are the idea of the Cheney administration. They exist now because nutballs such as yourself appeared to be dangerous to the right wing people in charge. If the right had won the election, you'd be living in a FEMA camp...

Anonymous said...

really? what is a nutball? because you state that does not make it fact Ok? what is a realist? someone who states the facts. and do you really know the facts? I am not a repuplican or democrat but someone who cares about our country and I love my country and that is is the gods honest truth.You are a person who has the right to say what you want and that is ok I am not a bush cheney supporter i AM A FREE THINKER ok I have that right do i or not?

Anonymous said...

Hb miller what is best for your community? what is best for all the people. not your agenda what you might think is best for everyone might just not be the best answer. Listen folks we are entering another great depression kinda like the one in 1838 not the one in 1930 it is gonna get ugly lets help each other out. This is bad prepare yourselves. yes you too hb miller make as many friends as you can.

Anonymous said...

really? what is a nutball? because you state that does not make it fact Ok?

What you state makes it fact...

I never said you are a Bush/Cheney supporter, I said you are a nutball.

Anonymous said...

I think the good old times @ bb2 are back, glad to have done my part today to stir the pot.

Thank god the pussy is gone.

There is a god.

Today I flew up to Big-Bay,BC to do some fishing before the season is over. I now sit in the bar and they have internet.

Wish you were all here.

Love,

Anonymous said...

HBM,

Yes I think you have hit homer with a home-run, loser day trader,

You must have spent some time at Reed College after the stint at Princeton.

xx00xx

Anonymous said...

and where do you get the facts to say i am a nutball? What is your defination of a nutball? really the fact is you are a nutball Hbruce miller a sanfrancisco implant to oregon please I will not get on your level I am better than that. What is your defination of a nuttball? I want the facts you guy who lives in redmond and I know where you live.

Anonymous said...

we will see who has the last word h bruce miller you are full of kisses and love and i will be there to see it

Anonymous said...

Our local daily newspaper offers a great editorial rant this morning about an impending socialist menace, warning ominously of “the specter of a vast and sprawling federal bureaucracy [that] is too horrible to contemplate.”

Is the editorial attacking liberal health care reform ideas like single-payer or the “public option”? Nope – it’s attacking federal aid to education, and it came from the paper’s archives of 1961.

Specifically, the editorial is ripping the Crook County School Board for showing interest in accepting – horrors! – federal money to help with school construction and – double horrors! – teachers’ pay.

“There may be some justification for federal help in school construction, particularly in the more hard-pressed areas of the country,” The Bulletin conceded. “But the proposal to provide federal money for teacher salaries is a piece of political skullduggery.

“The specter of a vast and sprawling federal bureaucracy in control of America’s schools is too horrible to contemplate. We’re convinced that federal money for paying our teachers would be an opening wedge. This must not happen.”

It might be hard for anybody born after, say, 1955 to believe that federal aid to education was once hotly controversial, but it was. When I was on my high school debating team in the mid-1960s, the topic one year was “Resolved: That federal aid to education should be significantly increased.”

The argument on the anti side was that the eeee-vil, tyrannical federal government wanted to “take over” education and extend its slimy, socialistic tentacles into every classroom in America – just as we’re hearing today that the eeee-vil, tyrannical federal government wants to “take over” health care and extend its slimy, socialistic tentacles into every doctor’s office.

Of course conservatives have said pretty much the same thing about every progressive idea going back for more than a hundred years. They said it about Social Security, they said it about Medicare and, as we have just seen, they said it about federal aid to schools. Today only the lunatic fringe of the lunatic fringe wants to abolish these programs, and it would be hard to imagine America without them.

For progressives, in addition to a good laugh, the 1961 Bulletin editorial offers some encouragement. It shows that change for the better does gradually happen – although

Anonymous said...

And I said what is a definition of a nutball? still have not answered asshole

Anonymous said...

love it just like you do

Anonymous said...

Simple the definition of a nutball is a guy who is a fag from cali named h bruce miller who is a socialist commie facist who wants to move to russia where his dream society already exists.

Anonymous said...

YeeeHaw, how many times can you use the word "who" in one sentence?

CoachingByPeter said...

Every investor must start-up a plan before heading up on buying a property. Learning the basics of real estate is essential rather than visualizing the money aspect. Listen to skilled professionals like bankers, estate agents, home inspectors, etc., they most likely know the latest trend.

Anonymous said...

who it only took three who's that is a lot less who's in a lot of who's who in the book of who;s who;s

Anonymous said...

Ah, Pete's got a sense of humor...

tim said...

I blame butter's initial post for the comments today.

Anonymous said...

From Coach Petes' web site:

"YES! PETER: I would like to discuss how your one-on-one coaching program can help me take advantage of the best market in real estate history!"

Better sign right up, Buster!

Anonymous said...

From the Telegraph.co.uk
(Even Obama's supporters don't support him)

President Barack Obama is beginning to look out of his depth

It is lovely to feature in other people's dreams. The problem comes when they wake up. Barack Obama is an eloquent, brainy and likeable man with a fascinating biography. He is not George Bush. Those are great qualities. But they are not enough to lead America, let alone the world.

By Edward Lucas

Admittedly, the presidential to-do list is terrifying. The economy requires his full-time attention. So does health-care reform. And climate change. Indeed, he deserves praise for spending so much time on thankless foreign policy issues. He is tackling all the big problems: restarting Middle East peace talks, defanging Iran and North Korea and a "reset" of relations with Russia. But none of them are working.


Related Articles
Obama confronts America over racial divide
Michelle Obama - the secret weapon on health reform
Obama denies racism is driving health care opposition
My odyssey with Barack Obama
The most influential US political pundits: 30-21
Antonia Fraser: InterviewRegimes in Moscow, Pyongyang and Tehran simply pocket his concessions and carry on as before. The picture emerging from the White House is a disturbing one, of timidity, clumsiness and short-term calculation. Some say he is the weakest president since Jimmy Carter.

The grizzled veterans of the Democratic leadership in Congress have found Mr Obama and his team of bright young advisers a pushover. That has gravely weakened his flagship domestic campaign, for health-care reform, which fails to address the greatest weakness of the American system: its inflated costs. His free trade credentials are increasingly tarnished too. His latest blunder is imposing tariffs on tyre imports from China, in the hope of gaining a little more union support for health care. But at a time when America's leadership in global economic matters has never been more vital, that is a dreadful move, hugely undermining its ability to stop other countries engaging in a ruinous spiral of protectionism.

Even good moves are ruined by bad presentation. Changing Mr Bush's costly and untried missile-defence scheme for something workable was sensible. But offensively casual treatment of east European allies such as Poland made it easy for his critics to portray it as naïve appeasement of the regime in Moscow.

Mr Obama's public image rests increasingly heavily on his extraordinary speechifying abilities. His call in Cairo for a new start in relations with the Muslim world was pitch-perfect. So was his speech in Ghana, decrying Africa's culture of bad government. His appeal to both houses of Congress to support health care was masterly – though the oratory was far more impressive than the mish-mash plan behind it. This morning he is blitzing the airwaves, giving interviews to all America's main television stations.

But for what? Mr Obama has tactics a plenty - calm and patient engagement with unpleasant regimes, finding common interests, appealing to shared values - but where is the strategy? What, exactly, did "Change you can believe in" – the hallmark slogan of his campaign – actually mean?

The President's domestic critics who accuse him of being the sinister wielder of a socialist master-plan are wide of the mark. The man who has run nothing more demanding than the Harvard Law Review is beginning to look out of his depth in the world's top job. His credibility is seeping away, and it will require concrete achievements rather than more soaring oratory to recover it.

Edward Lucas writes for The Economist and is the author of The New Cold War (Bloomsbury, £8.99)

hbm said...

"The man who has run nothing more demanding than the Harvard Law Review is beginning to look out of his depth in the world's top job."


*

Who Knew?

Who could have known this?

This was totally unforseen, even unimaginable, due to his awesome speechyfing wonders. (I still get tingles down my spine when he speechyfies, even when I have no idea what he is saying.)

Anonymous said...

Jimmy Carter was also a likeable, nice guy. Unfortunately, he was totally incompetent as a President.
What you want in a President,is like what you want in a lawyer-
someone who gets the job done.

Anonymous said...

Yes, but on the plus side, it's entertaining to watch Jimmy Carter as an ex-President.

A lot of these guys are around longer as ex-president than president, so entertainment value is something to consider when we elect these guys.

Anonymous said...

You guys pissing on Obama this fast are funny. At this point in our last Presidents' term, we were watching Manhattan smolder after he spent August on vacation.

Anonymous said...

"You guys pissing on Obama this fast are funny."

*

Yeah, that last dipshit took six years to show his spendthrift ways. Obama, only six months. Obama's debt will crater America's middle class as we knew it.

Obama's foreign policy will crater the rest.

tim said...

Why do we put the same party into the White House and both chambers of Congress? Isn't that just like sending them an overnight FedEx letter asking them overspend?

Both parties want to spend their pants off. Neither makes its standard restraint speech unless it's in opposition.

I don't mind growth in Federal spending, but it shouldn't outstrip the rate of growth in the economy.

We spend like drunken sailors during booms, believing unrealistic projections, and we spend in downturns to get out of the quagmire.

We're spending ourselves into a real mess.

Anonymous said...

The National Debt will increase this year by around 2 trillion dollars.
In 10 short years, the national debt will be 20 trillion dollars, with annual interest ONLY cost of around 1-1.5 trillion dollars.
That is not sustainable.

hbm said...

It was a lot of fun watching my team, the NY Giants, spoil the Cowboys' debut in their ostentatious new stadium last night.

Smirky McChimp was there -- he got to toss the coin. If I had been the Giants I would have asked to examine the coin first and probably have it X-rayed.

Smirky is now making his home in Dallas, having put his Crawford "ranch" up for sale. Now that he doesn't need it as a stage set for his "cowboy" photo ops anymore, he's not going to spend any more time in that shithole. Can't say I blame him.

I do blame the assholes who were dumb enough to fall for his "cowboy" act, though. Some of them still do.

hbm said...

"a fag from cali named h bruce miller who is a socialist commie facist [sic] who wants to move to russia where his dream society already exists."

Uh, Russia is a capitalist country now -- has been for almost 30 years. Didn't anybody tell ya?

Anyway, I would never move to Russia -- too damn cold. Might as well stay in Bend. Cuba, however ...

hbm said...

"H b miller let me remind you we will not fold we will not let you put us into fema camps we will not follow your socialist mind set or follow your facism [sic] hitler doctrine that our government ideals is what we think is right for you? You sir are a traitor to all the people who died in world war 2 and to all the vietnam vets who bravely served our country so fuck you"

Damn, I could just SEE the spittle flying from your lips as you reeled off that rant. You right-wingers go into incoherent rages like that and wonder why normal people think you're nut cases?

hbm said...

Tim: We spend like drunken sailors during booms, believing unrealistic projections, and we spend in downturns to get out of the quagmire.

How would you propose getting out of the quagmire? Or do you think it would be better to just stay in the quagmire?

tim said...

"How would you propose getting out of the quagmire? Or do you think it would be better to just stay in the quagmire?"

We're in a real pickle. I'm always skeptical of those who say revolution is coming, but given how disillusioned we've become simultaneously with both parties, I can't quite figure out how we get out of the mess walking. We may have to jump.

Even when we have spending tied to growth, there are a million little loopholes that violate the idea.

It seems anything the gov't tries to incentivize (housing, college) just goes up in price faster than wage growth, making people still more dependent on the gov't, making the "aid" provided by the gov't worse than worthless.

Before the World Wars, the federal government was tiny. Is there any way we can keep the good stuff we've added and get rid of the crap?

I don't know. I need some change I can believe in that's a lot more credible than the current change.

I think we're facing some kind of discontinuity. For instance, how do you reform a tax system that's eleventy zillion pages long, is only explained after a bunch of little pieces of litigation, and still manages to hit the middle class in the nose when it's aiming for the rich?

Reboot. Not sure how or what that means, though.

hbm said...

"Reboot. Not sure how or what that means, though."

Maybe it means we need a new OS -- i.e., political system. Three or four or five parties instead of the present two, Tweedle-Dumb and Tweedle-Dumber, which offer no meaningful choice to voters. For a multi-party system to work, though, we need to go to proportional representation instead of the present winner-take-all setup.

Second, get the money out of politics by instituting campaign spending limits. Unfortunately that can't be done without reversing the SCOTUS decision that spending money is protected as a free speech right (a decision that IMO ranks up there with Dred Scott as one of the dumbest and most disastrous the SCOTUS has ever made).

hbm said...

"It seems anything the gov't tries to incentivize (housing, college) just goes up in price faster than wage growth"

But things the government doesn't incentivize (food, gasoline, clothing) ALSO have been going up in price faster than wage growth.

The problem, you see, is not so much that prices have been rising as that wages have basically been stagnant -- in fact, have declined -- for more than 20 years. I don't need to go into what I think are the reasons for that; you've heard them before.

tim said...

I don't think food and clothing have not followed the curve that housing and tuition followed over the last 20 years. For years, tuition went TWICE the rate of consumer goods. With a Federal backstop, why wouldn't loans and tuitions grow out of control?

tim said...

Absolutely agree with you that we can't sustain consumer inflation levels much higher than wage inflation levels for long.

tim said...

Tuition rates vs general tuition.

http://wwww.finaid.org/savings/tuition-inflation.phtml

hbm said...

"I don't think food and clothing have not followed the curve that housing and tuition followed over the last 20 years."

They haven't gone up as much, but my point was they still have gone up. And fuel prices have risen astronomically.

As for housing, we had government incentives to buy houses (mortgage deductions, GI Bill loans and what not) for decades before the Great Bubble came along. It was not government incentives but manic speculation that inflated the Great Bubble, and that speculation in turn was facilitated by deregulation of the financial industry, thanks to idiots like Alan Greenspan who thought it would "police itself." But what else can you expect from a disciple of Ayn Rand? And not merely a casual reader or admirer, but a member of the inner circle.

Incidentally, why is it that people who embrace crackpot left-wing ideologies like Van Jones are (rightly) deemed unfit for public office, but those who embrace crackpot right-wing ideologies like Greenspan become chairman of the Fed?

Anonymous said...

Well, as least Bend won't have race riots when the economy crashes. Unlike Portland.

Duncan McGeary said...

Anyone here subscribed to the WSJ and can post the entire new article on Bend?

hbm said...

"Anyone here subscribed to the WSJ and can post the entire new article on Bend?"

I was able to access it without a subscription. Try this link:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125348951896526259.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

hbm said...

"Well, as least Bend won't have race riots when the economy crashes."

What do you mean "when"?

Anonymous said...

Things are not so bad in Bend.
Weather is good, most people have jobs, real estate is holding steady, and some adventerous people are even opening new stores.

Anonymous said...

Oooo. I love that usage of "adventurous!"

As in, "He was feeling adventurous, so he stepped out in front of a bus."

Anonymous said...

Actually, I drove through downtown yesterday (Sunday). It and the neighborhoods were eerily quiet. However, Sisters was packed with people attending an art and craft show and sale.

P.S. I get day-old WSJs - what day was this article in print?

Anonymous said...

How come Bend doesn't have a Arts and Wine Fair?

hbm said...

"Weather is good"

At the moment.

"most people have jobs"

That's true in Detroit too.

"real estate is holding steady"

Like the Titanic on the bottom of the Atlantic.

"and some adventerous people are even opening new stores."

While other formerly adventurous people are closing them.

hbm said...

"How come Bend doesn't have a Arts and Wine Fair?"

We have about 16 of those "festivals" a year. They're all exactly the same.

Anonymous said...

"We have about 16 of those "festivals" a year. They're all exactly the same."

*

No there not, you douchebag.

Sisters festivals are much better, since we are 'special'. Sisters, what Bend wanted to become, but failed.

Anonymous said...

there = they're

So they're, you douchebag!

Anonymous said...

Weather is good, most people have jobs, real estate is holding steady, and some adventerous people are even opening new stores.

The weather is good. Even though some people whine about the weather, I think it's great. It's the high desert in the PNW...it's gonna get cold but it doesn't rain for weeks at a time like the rest of the PNW. It's not deathly cold like Northern Idaho and Montana.

RE holding steady? Yup, it's still plummeting at a steady pace if that's what you mean.

New stores are opening...and closing. Good time to hunker down. Bad time to hang it out there. This winter is gonna be brutal on tourist driven businesses.

Bewert said...

Re: Sisters, what Bend wanted to become, but failed.

####

That's funny.

Anonymous said...

Damn, I could just SEE the spittle flying from your lips as you reeled off that rant. You right-wingers go into incoherent rages like that and wonder why normal people think you're nut cases?
You are the nut case the old ww2 vets fought for a cause just what is your cause? and by the way what is a right winger because that is not in my voc or left winger as well please explain? And also could you please explain what is normal? don't dodge that question cause I would really like to know.

Anonymous said...

"And also could you please explain what is normal?"


*

To hbm, I suspect that normal is:

- a fat, balding, bitter old man, who was passed up in his failed journalism career

- who is so liberal that he thinks the most liberal Senator is mainstream, middle of the road

- who is still foaming at the mouth, spittle flying everywhere, when ever he talks about "Smirky McChimp"

- who hates his meager existance here in Bend, sees nothing of value here, nothing better than Detroit

- who wishes he would be able to exit out of Bend and go somewhere warmer, anywhere warmer, except for the fact that he has no money to exit Bend.

Those five paragraphs describe hbm's "normal". If you don't agree with all five, you clearly are NOT normal, you fucking retard!

Anonymous said...

RE:...you clearly are NOT normal, you fucking retard!

-

You sure you are alright?

hbm said...

I can appreciate your difficulty understanding the concept of "normal."

What is "normal" is somebody whose mind has not been rotted away by hate and paranoia to the point where he flies into a screaming rage at anybody whose political viewpoint differs from his own and calls him a traitor, a socialist, a communist, a fascist, a fag, and any other hateful term that he has been taught by Limbaugh, Beck, Coulter, Savage etc.

Clearer now?

Anonymous said...

HBM, I admire you for all you put up with. On this blog and at the Source. And the amazing thing is that you're public, unlike nearly everyone else of us here.

Anonymous said...

hbm writes:
"...rotted away by hate and paranoia to the point where he flies into a screaming rage at anybody whose political viewpoint differs from his own and calls him a traitor, a socialist, a communist, a fascist, a fag, a chimp, and any other hateful term that he has been taught by DKos, Huffington Post, Franken, Limbaugh, Beck, Coulter, Savage..."

Got it.

hbm said...

Franken, DKos, HuffPo are all quite rational, and they never, ever call people names. Seriously.

tim said...

"Franken, DKos, HuffPo are all quite rational, and they never, ever call people names. Seriously."

Hahaha.

Anonymous said...

Interesting graph:

http://img110.imageshack.us/img110/3417/thevalueofthedollar1776.jpg

Anonymous said...

Obama Health Care Plan in four minutes:

http://www.youtube.com/v/hUNCpnRBf9o

Anonymous said...

Monday, 21 September 2009 15:43 H. Bruce Miller


The Wall Street Journal has published a first-rate piece on Bend’s economic debacle, using it as a microcosm for what’s going on nationally.

The story (pretty long, but well worth reading) begins by describing anecdotally how the collapse of Bend’s economy has created “slack” – a gap between the economy’s productive capacity and what’s actually being used:

“A year and a half of recession has left local manufacturer Bright Wood Corp. with too much capacity at its plants that make window and door components. Bright Wood has laid off nearly half of its work force, shut an 80,000-square-foot factory in Bend, and sold or stored its extra equipment.

“Additional underutilized industrial space, housing and workers are apparent across town. More than 9,000 people have lost jobs since mid-2006. Some 29% of homes are vacant. ‘For Lease’ signs hang on store windows near the town's main drag, Wall Street.

“Similar slack … is evident across the U.S. Thousands of airplanes and hundreds of thousands of train cars sit unused, hotels report their highest vacancy rates in at least two decades, and millions of Americans are underemployed.”

Calculating the degree of slack in the economy is important to the Federal Reserve Board, the WSJ explains, because it needs to steer a delicate course between pumping too much money into the economy (and thus igniting inflation) and not pumping enough (which could stifle recovery and even lead to a disastrous deflationary spiral).

With the amount of slack in the national economy, the Journal says, the inflation risk appears small. Unneeded, surplus productive capacity means employers lay off workers and close plants, and that keeps wages (and prices) low. However, “some Fed officials have been arguing for months that the central bank is putting too much weight on this argument and risks being behind the curve in combating inflation.”

In Bend, at least, the prospect of inflation seems like the a very remote worry. Unemployment is at record levels, the housing market is still glutted, and banks aren’t handing out a lot of loans.

“At the Bank of the Cascades – Bend's largest locally based bank, with $2.4 billion in assets – total loans and leases are down 14% from a year ago,” the Journal writes. “Its holdings of government securities and debt issued by government-backed lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are rising. In August, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. ordered Bank of the Cascades to improve its capital and liquidity, an indication the bank won't be flooding the local economy with cash anytime soon.”

At another local lending institution, High Desert Bank, President and CEO Larry Snyder says customers aren’t coming in asking for loans. “‘The dentist office that's thinking of expanding and adding another dental chair is holding off,’ he says.

“From groceries to home prices to wages, costs haven't shown any hints of rising. And inflation? ‘I don't see it on the horizon whatsoever,’ Mr. Snyder says.”




Posted by :
H. Bruce Miller
fresh from the source weekly

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The slow creep up in Bend unemployment has started, 14.1% for Aug, up from 13.8% in July.

7.4% a year ago.

tim said...

Inflation hitting us hard is inevitable. Our money is over committed, so we'll have to inflate.

Won't be soon, though.

Anonymous said...

The guy who writes a blog from Bend, wants advice about whether he should move to Montana.
Please leave a comment at
www.themessthatgreenspanmade.blogspot.com

Anonymous said...

Jeez. He just got to Bend and already he's looking to leave? That guy is smarter than I thought.

hbm said...

"HBM, I admire you for all you put up with. On this blog and at the Source."

Thank you. More than 40 years in journalism has made me pretty thick-skinned, but the non-stop abuse does take an emotional and psychological toll. In the old days a reader who didn't like what you wrote would either have to have the balls to phone you personally or take the trouble to write and mail a letter (and many papers refused to publish anonymous letters, which I think is a good policy). Now any imbecile with access to the Internet can anonymously post all the vile shit he can think of.

Thinking about this last night, I made up two rules to follow:

1. I will not reply to assholes.

2. I, and only I, get to decide who is an asshole.

These rules apply here and on my own blog.

hbm said...

Pretty funny video:

http://pol.moveon.org/insurance_execs/?id=17285-478252-kkZgEvx&t=2

tim said...

Well, there are always trolls who delight in running the conversation off the road. Sometimes because it's fun, and sometimes because they don't like the discussion or where it's going. However, the guy who gets picked on all the time gets pity and martyr points if he wants them and if he knows how to play it up.

Bewert said...

Think things are going to get better or worse?

Are W's appointees going to make long lasting changes to our landscape in favor of those with money and power?

Probably.

The courts have long treated corporations as persons in limited ways for some legal purposes. They may own property and have limited rights to free speech. They can sue and be sued. They have the right to enter into contracts and advertise their products. But corporations cannot and should not be allowed to vote, run for office or bear arms. Since 1907, Congress has banned them from contributing to federal political campaigns — a ban the Supreme Court has repeatedly upheld.

In an exchange this month with Chief Justice Roberts, the solicitor general, Elena Kagan, argued against expanding that narrowly defined personhood. "Few of us are only our economic interests," she said. "We have beliefs. We have convictions." Corporations, "engage the political process in an entirely different way, and this is what makes them so much more damaging," she said.

Chief Justice Roberts disagreed: "A large corporation, just like an individual, has many diverse interests." Justice Antonin Scalia said most corporations are "indistinguishable from the individual who owns them."


Pretty soon, the whole US could be just like Utah, with no limit to corporate contributions. Trust me, it isn't pretty.

hbm said...

"Justice Antonin Scalia said most corporations are "indistinguishable from the individual who owns them."

?????

Does this assclown actually believe that most modern corporations are "owned" by one individual?

Bewert said...

That evil ACORN:


Police: ACORN worker in video reported couple

NATIONAL CITY, Calif. (AP) -- Police say a worker with the activist group ACORN who was caught on video giving advice about human smuggling to a couple posing as a pimp and a prostitute had reported the incident to authorities.

National City police said Monday that Juan Carlos Vera contacted his cousin, a police detective, to get advice on what to with information on possible human smuggling.

Vera was secretly filmed on Aug. 18 as part of a young couple's high-profile expose.

Police say he contacted law enforcement two days later. The detective consulted another police official who served on a federal human smuggling task force, who said he needed more details.

The ACORN employee responded several days later and explained that the information he received was not true and he had been duped.

Vera was fired on Thursday.

Bewert said...

WTF is up with MBIA?

MBI MBIA Inc. 8.37 +1.61 23.82%

Anonymous said...

ACORN is another "feel good" idea, paid for by taxpayers. Virtually none of it's workers are white, so any critism is immediately labeled
"racism"

Bewert said...

Health insurance premiums up 88% in Mich. since '99
David Shepardson / Detroit News Washington Bureau

Washington -- Michigan has had the nation's lowest increase in health care insurance premiums in the last decade, a White House report said today.

"Over the past decade, premium growth has ranged from 88 percent in Michigan to 145 percent in Alaska," said the eight-page report released by the White House as part of its effort to make the case for Congress to pass health care reforms....

####

You think that is all inflation and waste, or do you think that very little regulation of a market with only one or two major players in any one place might have something to do with it?

Anonymous said...

Shit Bruce, take it somewhere else man........

Anonymous said...

So Vera gave advice, then waited two days to report the incident. Then Vera claimed to have been duped.

Why did Vera wait two days? I'd guess because Vera got worried or suspicious that something funky was going on.

I think ACORN's head has it right that what happened was UNACCEPTABLE.

Personally, I'm more worried about the other corruption in ACORN. This one that finally brought them to their knees just happened to be sensational.

Anonymous said...

ACORN is lucky that Blagovich the clown resurfaced to distract people.

Anonymous said...

If ACORN were a right-wing organization, Bruce would be jumping all over the corruption. Thanks for the hypocrisy, Bruce.

Anonymous said...

I'm not especially impressed with Obama's effectiveness, but I gotta say I don't appreciate the British papers all jumping on this "Obama is showing he's out of his depth" meme. Especially since they have Brown as PM.

Anonymous said...

http://www.nowandfutures.com/inflation_long_term.html Click on these charts and you see just where the dow really is. inflation adjusted that is

Bewert said...

Re: If ACORN were a right-wing organization, Bruce would be jumping all over the corruption. Thanks for the hypocrisy, Bruce.

####

Corruption? Questions swirling around sale by Blue Dog Mike Ross of Land to Pharmacy Chain

ProPublica is reporting that Blue Dog Congressman Mike Ross (DINO-AR) "sold a piece of commercial property in 2007 for substantially more than a county assessment and an independent appraisal say it was worth."

Who did he sell it to? An Arkansas-based pharmacy chain with an interest in defeating universal health care.

Ross sold the real estate in Prescott, Ark., to USA Drug for $420,000 -- an eye-popping number for real estate in the tiny train and lumber town about 100 miles southwest of Little Rock.

"You can buy half the town for $420,000," said Adam Guthrie, chairman of the county Board of Equalization and the only licensed real estate appraiser in Prescott.

####

Read more about what this Dem asshole did here. It's a top recced diary on DKos.

We don't cut our side much slack.

####

Hey, bottom, got an example from your side?

hbm said...

"Pretty soon, the whole US could be just like Utah, with no limit to corporate contributions."

I can see a potential upside to this, however. Corporate contributions presumably would have to be reported, and voters could see exactly which corporations were giving how much to which politicians. As things stand they can hide their contributions by funneling them through phony astroturf organizations set up by K Street lobbyists and given names like "Americans for Truth and Freedom."

Bewert said...

Or kinda, as here: http://ucrs.utah.gov

Which rebounds to this:
http://gva1.utah.gov/disclosures/

Actual disclosures?

Haven't found them yet.

HB, that is the $64M question.

Bewert said...

And, yes, I will become a pain in the ass of dumb shots politicians over here as well.

hbm said...

Fair and Balanced:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/09/19/fox-news-producer-caught_n_292529.html

Anonymous said...

Oh Dunc, where art thou?

The three idiots only have two active at the momment. Bruce Pussy (renamed Bewert) and HBruceM (aka hbm) are busy tilting at Dkos and HuffPo reposts. But no Dunc anywhere.

Dunc, you can't be part of The Three Stooges if you remain silent.

Come out and play Dunc!

Duncan McGeary said...

Who's that tripping over my bridge?" roared the troll .

"Oh, it is only I, the tiniest Billy Goat Gruff , and I'm going up to the hillside to make myself fat," said the billy goat, with such a small voice.

"Now, I'm coming to gobble you up," said the troll.

"Oh, no! pray don't take me. I'm too little, that I am," said the billy goat. "Wait a bit till the second Billy Goat Gruff comes. He's much bigger."

"Well, be off with you," said the troll.

Anonymous said...

You are a classy guy, Duncan -- much too good for this sorry blog.

Anonymous said...

Thanks. Much more entertaining than Curly or Moe.

Bewert said...

PG&E quits Chamber of Commerce:

Sep 22 2009

Irreconcilable Differences

Posted by: Jonathan Marshall

In the past several weeks, two high-profile companies - Duke Energy and Alstom - publicly gave up their membership in the American Coalition for Clean Coal Energy in protest over its opposition to federal climate change legislation.

Other companies that similarly favor climate change legislation faced uncomfortable questions this summer over their memberships in similar groups that have mounted aggressive campaigns to defeat pending climate bills.

Most responded to critics by pointing out that climate change is only one of many issues these organizations address.

Fair enough. But not every issue is created equal, and sometimes companies decide they have to take a more decisive stand on the really big ones.

Duke and Alstom made that decision. Now PG&E has as well.

In a letter to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, PG&E Chairman and CEO Peter Darbee cited "fundamental differences" over climate change to explain why the company is pulling out of the organization, despite the Chamber's "long history as a positive force for America's businesses and its economy."

The letter criticized the Chamber for taking an extreme position on climate change, which Darbee said does not represent the range of views among Chamber members. In particular, he took the Chamber to task for its recent demand that there be a "Scopes monkey trial of the 21st century" to challenge the science on climate change:

We find it dismaying that the Chamber neglects the indisputable fact that a decisive majority of experts have said the data on global warming are compelling and point to a threat that cannot be ignored. In our opinion, an intellectually honest argument over the best policy response to the challenges of climate change is one thing; disingenuous attempts to diminish or distort the reality of these challenges are quite another.

Darbee also drew a sharp contrast between the Chamber's approach and the constructive, consensus-driven positions forged by Edison Electric Institute and the U.S. Climate Action Partnership.

Instead, he said, "I fear it has forfeited an incredible chance to play a constructive leadership role on one of the most important issues our country may ever face."

Anonymous said...

The death penalty should be abolished.

tim said...

Why is this a political blog, now? Even when someone says something about Bend, there's not much comment on it. We just go back to our sports-like political cheerleading.

Donkeys vs the Elephants again this week and it's hard for me to give a damn. :-)

hbm said...

"Even when someone says something about Bend, there's not much comment on it."

What is there to say about Bend's sad plight that hasn't already been said?

Okay, here's a possible fresh topic: What do you all think of the way The Bulletin handled the story about Bend ranking 6th in the US in homelessness?

A refresher: First there was a news story reporting the ranking, then a long editorial arguing that the ranking is bogus because of questionable methodology used for counting the homeless, then a couple of In My Views defending the count, then a column by Costa last Sunday attacking the defenders for defending the count.

Do you think The Bulletin got it right or wrong on this one? Do you think we really are 6th in homelessness and The Bull is just in denial, or was the count really flawed?

Anonymous said...

No place could beat Honolulu/Oahu for homelessness. Thousands of these guys have taken over entire parks, run hoses from bathrooms to their tent, and stay put as long as 10 years.
Waikai beach is ground zero for street people

Anonymous said...

Do you think The Bulletin got it right or wrong on this one? Do you think we really are 6th in homelessness and The Bull is just in denial, or was the count really flawed?
----

Nobody but you really gives a shit, HBM. Can you say, "Disgruntled ex Bully employee?"

Duncan McGeary said...

Unless I missed something, the Bulletin completely whiffed on the unemployment rate story. Buried it in the fourth paragraph of a story on benefit extensions.

The figure I was doubting was the 29% house vacancy that the WSJ touted.

That can't be right...

tim said...

"Do you think The Bulletin got it right or wrong on this one? Do you think we really are 6th in homelessness and The Bull is just in denial, or was the count really flawed?"

I don't know if they got it right or wrong. But it illustrates the credibility problem the Bulletin, and especially Costa, has.

Who believes the Bulletin anymore after all the preposterous happy talk at the top? They are see as more "boosterish" than "newsish."

Anonymous said...

Newspapers exist for one reason- to sell ad space. What goes on between those ads is not important.
Newspapers ALWAYS like upbeat stories about the economy- convinces stores to buy more ad space.

tim said...

And yet newspapers are dropping like flies. They are full of news I read yesterday on the web. And I don't trust them because I suspect the editorial is driven by advertising (directly or through fear of offense).

Perhaps if the paper were ballsier, I'd pick it up and read it and my eyes would actually have some chance of seeing some ads.

hbm said...

"Can you say, "Disgruntled ex Bully employee?"

Can you say "I am an ignorant asshole"?

I left the paper in 1992, while Bob Chandler was still alive and years before the Gordon Black - John Costa junta took over. And I left in a highly gruntled state. The Bulletin had always treated me very well.

hbm said...

"And I don't trust them because I suspect the editorial is driven by advertising (directly or through fear of offense)."

Not true everywhere, but true in too many places, alas.

One of the things I'm most looking forward to about leaving Bend is not having to read The Bulletin anymore. Can't wait for the day I call that circulation department and say, "Cancel."

hbm said...

This is fucking scary stuff:

by Ted Rall
SWINE
Why Are Insurers Blocking H1N1 Treatment Prescriptions?
NEW YORK--I got swine flu. Five days later, I was at death's door--because my evil insurance company wouldn't honor my doctor's prescription. Memo to future revolutionaries: if you require a firing squad for the executives of the Health Insurance Plan (HIP) of New York, I'm handy with a rifle.
I wasn't worried at first. A little sneezing, slightly achy joints. I figured it was my usual bout of fall allergies. There's usually nothing to do but suffer. But I felt worse each day: achier, more congested, stiffer, headache, fevers. The third night was bad. I went to bed under a pile of comforters, chattering uncontrollably. Then nightsweats. I checked my temperature: 103.7. When your temperature looks like a classic rock station, it's time to see the doctor.
I've known my general practitioner for decades. So I pay out-of-pocket to see him even though he's not on HIP's list of plan-approved doctors. Hey, what do you expect for $749.01 a month?
My ordeal with the insurance company began when I went to fill my prescription for Tamiflu, an antiviral medication that is widely considered the standard treatment for swine (and other types of) flu.
"Your insurance isn't going to cover this," the pharmacist said. "You would need a pre-approval from your doctor."
"But that's a prescription," I said, motioning to the white slip of paper in her hand. For younger readers, I come from a generation when a doctor's prescription was all you needed to get a medication.
"It's not going to work," she said, slowing her speech for emphasis. "This drug is for people who have the flu."
"Um...I have the flu."
"You have the flu?" She looked shocked.
Because Tamiflu or another drug called Relenza can significantly reduce flu symptoms if taken less than 48 hours after the onset of symptoms, people have been hoarding and taking anti-viral drugs prophylactically--especially in New York City. Given what was about to happen to me, I admire the hoarders. Smart.
I called my doctor. No answer; left a message. Waited. I called back. Got his assistant, who patched me through. I explained the situation. "Put her on," my doctor said.
I offered my cellphone to the pharmacist. She recoiled in horror. "You have the flu! I'm not using your phone!" She believed I had the flu enough to shriek like a wee girl. So why did she need to confirm it with my doctor?
I asked my doctor to call the pharmacy. "Right away," he promised.
Wait. Wait. Wait more.
I called back. "Wait. Are you already at the pharmacy?" he asked. "You want me to call where?"
At this point I began to lose my mind.
An hour passed after my doctor and pharmacist exchanged the required bureaucratic pleasantries. She returned to the counter. "I'm sorry, Mr. Rall," she said, "but your doctor is going to have to call HIP to get their advance approval. It will take him quite a bit of time...it's complicated, especially for doctors."
Especially for doctors?
Remember, this isn't heroin. It's Tamiflu. The street value of this stuff isn't that great, and it's a really, really bum trip. My brain may be baked from a week of triple-digit fevers, but I want to know:
Why the hell would an insurer make it more difficult to get the main drug prescribed to treat the number-one most-talked-about disease in America, one that's a probable pandemic?

(cont.)

hbm said...

Rall column (cont.)

Shouldn't HIP and other insurers be shoveling these yellow and white capsules out the door, trying to keep their own costs down by getting as many flu victims to recover as quickly as possible?
What the hell is a "pre-approval"? If a doctor prescribes a drug, why isn't that good enough for the health insurance company?
Oh, and why doesn't the federal government make Tamiflu available free? Hey, President Obama: What part of "pandemic" do you not understand?
Another hour went by. My pharmacist's phone rang. She winked at me. "Everything should be fine now," she said.
Everything was not fine.
I was getting sicker and sicker, just sitting there. My head reeled; an invisible C-clamp tightened behind each ear. I could barely breathe. It felt as though there were shards of glass stuck in my lungs. Every breath hurt. I barely had enough energy to stand up and take a step. My fingers were bluish-gray (an early sign that breakdown of the cardio-pulmonary system is imminent.) I coughed and caught a ball of phlegm in a napkin. It was soaked in blood.
Four hours and 12 phone calls after I arrived at the pharmacy, I went home empty-handed. HIP's approval still hadn't appeared in the pharmacy's computer system.
When swine flu appeared in the U.S. this spring, the government prompted hysteria, predicted the deaths of as many as 90,000 Americans. Now they're going to the opposite extreme, downplaying a genuine threat by trying to ignore it. They're no longer even tracking new cases. And Obama Administration health officials are now selling an official line--for most people, swine flu symptoms are no worse than those of any other random flu--that isn't quite accurate.
For example, while it's true that children and the elderly are in high-risk categories for swine flu, "40-year-olds are the group most at risk of developing life-threatening complications from H1N1," according to Canadian researchers cited by the Montreal Gazette. (Centralized data collection is a big advantage of a national healthcare system.)
Another difference is that swine flu is much more likely to cause viral pneumonia, the most common life-threatening complication of flu. It is not just another flu.
Lord knows, it's not like any other flu I've had. I spent that night coughing up blood and downing aspirins to try to keep the fever down. By way of comparison, I've been thrown down two flights of stairs--and swine flu is worse. I had pneumonia last year; it sucked hard, but it was a joke next to this.
I went back to the pharmacy in the morning. Still nothing. I called HIP. Unsurprisingly, their voice recognition voicemail tree had some trouble understanding my voice by this time. God forbid they should hire someone in India to actually answer the phone. Finally--success. Sort of.
"The pharmacy needs to enter the approval code," the HIP lady explained. She read me a long number. I gave it to the pharmacist. She typed it into her computer. "No. Still nothing," she said.
She didn't look surprised.
"Would you like me to call HIP?" the pharmacist asked.
"I thought you'd never ask," I replied.
Half an hour, an overnight and about two pints of phlegmy blood later, I had my Tamiflu in hand. "$87.12," demanded the pharmacist.
I asked her how much it would have been out-of-pocket, without insurance.
"$112," she said.
Losing that night has diminished the effectiveness of the drug. It took three days more of feeling like death just to advance to the stage of feeling like crap. Now I'm settling into a nice, comfortable state of wretched.
I just read that a recent ABC News poll says that 32 percent of Americans think the current healthcare system is just peachy. Let's hope they don't catch swine flu this winter.

Sounds a lot worse than any flu I've ever had either. I suspect the government is feeding us a line of bullshit (surprise, surprise) to prevent panic.

hbm said...

"They are full of news I read yesterday on the web."

Somebody -- can't remember who -- had a great line a few months ago: "I don't need the New York Times to tell me what happened in China yesterday. I need the New York Times to tell me why I should care about what happened in China yesterday."

True. But how many people want or need to read pages and pages of heavy analysis every day? Maybe in the Internet age weekly or biweekly newspapers make more sense than dailies.

hbm said...

"I don't know if they got it right or wrong."

From what I've been able to learn -- and it gets VERY complicated, much too complicated to explain here -- The Bulletin got it right, technically. But it's interesting that they got their panties in such a bunch over the story that they felt obliged to demolish it on their editorial page -- and then blast back at those who tried to rebut them. (Like the old saying goes, "Never get into an argument with a man who buys ink by the barrel.")

Does it really make that much difference if we're ranked 6th or 12th or 24th? Point is, we have a lot of poor and homeless people here. The Bulletin (and its advertisers) might not like to be reminded of that -- it doesn't mesh well with the official story line of Bend as a "paradise" where the sun always shines and everybody is healthy, happy and affluent -- but it's a fact just the same.

tim said...

"True. But how many people want or need to read pages and pages of heavy analysis every day? Maybe in the Internet age weekly or biweekly newspapers make more sense than dailies."

Probably why The Economist is what people brag about reading now.

Anonymous said...

Glad I got here took awhile ok here we go to hbm born 58 man like i told you the old timers had a cause to win ww2 and i asked what was your cause? Sorry bro but you never answered that part of the question.Just what is your cause because you seem to be hanging out here with us libertainians or right wingers god forbid. Just the fact that you want to be here tells me something.Are we comforting to you. Hey listen when they transport our currency to hell it does not matter. We are all in the same boat. Yes i agree we are entering scary times.Better to make friends than enemys because our friends is all we got.

tim said...

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1925576,00.html

OK. I love Nader for calling it like he sees it.

What do you think about the current fight over health-care reform?
Well, it's going down heavily. Obama's not going to get a public option. By the time the thousand-page monstrosity of complexity and ambiguity gets to his desk, it's going to be a shred of what the majority of doctors, nurses and the people in this country want — which is full Medicare for all.

What's your take on President Obama thus far?
Weak. Waffling, wavering, ambiguous and overwhelmingly concessionary.

I'll have to read his book. He's ballsy as hell.

Anonymous said...

I like Nader too. Wasn't he active in the 1960s against the car industry for not implementing easy safety advances? Kind of a strange obsession he had. And the fact that he's still around and saying relevant things 45 years later.

Anonymous said...

Nader is funded by the trial lawyers.

Anonymous said...

From what I've been able to learn -- and it gets VERY complicated, much too complicated to explain here -- The Bulletin got it right, technically. But it's interesting that they got their panties in such a bunch over the story that they felt obliged to demolish it on their editorial page -- and then blast back at those who tried to rebut them. (Like the old saying goes, "Never get into an argument with a man who buys ink by the barrel.")
************

Seem like you're doing exactly the same thing. Technically you're right, but you sure seem to be getting your panties in a bunch. (Like the old saying goes, "Never get into an argument with a man who buys ink on the internet.")

hbm said...

>>What's your take on President >>Obama thus far?

>Nader:
>Weak. Waffling, wavering, >ambiguous and overwhelmingly >concessionary.

=======

Nader is a washed up hasbeen who couldn't win the Dem Primary for the Whitehouse. He hates my Obama-messiah, and he won't drink my Obama Kool-aid, so Nader is a nobody.

Anonymous said...

RT @Roland_Hedley Huckabee back on death panels. Fascinating what flies. As experiment, may do story tonite on unicorns, let viewers decide.

Anonymous said...

Local Fox Affiliate Debuts Terror-Alert Van

"...A Fox 11 News promotional spot features footage of the van driving down Murfreesboro thoroughfares while flashing its trademark Terror Alert Warning Light, which informs Murfreesboro citizens of the current Homeland Security Advisory System terror-threat level. The images of the van are juxtaposed with grainy, black-and-white footage of a terrorist—actually WMFB production assistant Fred Fromme clad in a towel and bathrobe—lingering in doorways and back alleys.

The commercial ends with a message from Fox 11 anchor Bob Herlihy: "When terror strikes, don't get left behind. Stay ahead of the game with Fox 11."

Although the only criminal activity the van has uncovered thus far was the illegal dumping of several quarts of used motor oil into the sewer, response from Fox 11 viewers has been overwhelmingly positive..."

Don't we need one of these in Bend?

hbm said...

Re Terror Alert Van: ROTFLMAO!!!

Oh yeah, we DEFINITELY need one of those in Bend.

Anonymous said...

Speaking of what we need in Bend, how about a KUNT with a brain??

Nah? Not here right?

Anonymous said...

I found a house for trudi & bruce

$875 / 2br - DESCHUTES RIVER/DRAKE PARK (Westside Bend) (map)
Date: 2009-09-24, 10:32AM

Charming 2 BR/1BA remodeled house
Wonderful Location across from river and walk to downtown or Old Mill
*Wood Floors
*Gas fireplace
*Large storage room
*Private Deck
*Low maintenance yard
*Washer/Dryer and all other appliances included

No smoking
$875/mo
389-5599
AVAILABLE NOVEMBER 1st


38 NW Mueller (google map) (yahoo map)

* Location: Westside Bend
* it's NOT ok to contact this poster with services or other commercial interests

hbm said...

Obama is BUSH in a Nigger's Jumpsuit.

"Mission Accomplished"

CoachingByPeter said...

Any buyer should ensure that he has the capacity to pay for a house. The seller must be sure that the buyer is qualified in purchasing before approving the offer. Conducting home inspection can also help if in case there are some minor problems in negotiating with the seller.

Anonymous said...

Pete's got some serious experience in the spam industry...and cute little tips that every 3rd grader knows.

BB2 is the wrong place to be peddling your goods Coach.

Anonymous said...

Hey, Coaching By Peter, GO AWAY, go far, far away. We don't want your fucking ads here.

Bewert said...

Via HuffPo:

House Pushes For Sweeping Audit Of The Fed

WASHINGTON — House lawmakers want to pry open the books of the famously secretive Federal Reserve with legislation that would subject the central bank to a sweeping congressional audit.

The effort is overwhelmingly bipartisan. Hardline conservatives and liberal Democrats have banded together in their criticism of the Fed as a major power broker in the financial system that doesn't answer to Congress.

Friday's debate comes as lawmakers consider a proposal by President Barack Obama that would give the Fed new powers to prevent another economic crisis.

"Nobody in my district thinks that the Fed has done such a wonderful job of running the economy that we should continue to cloak them with secrecy for the purpose of protecting them from second-guessing criticism," said Rep. Brad Sherman, a California Democrat.

The Fed is pushing back, warning that its ability to stabilize prices and monitor interest rates would be compromised if it knew politicians were looking over its shoulder.

The House proposal would "cause the markets and the to public to lose confidence in the independence and the judgments of the Federal Reserve," Scott Alvarez, the board's top lawyer, told the House Financial Services Committee in testimony.

The legislation is championed by Rep. Ron Paul, a Texas Republican whose extreme libertarian bent usually doesn't generate consensus in Congress. But as of Friday, Paul's legislation had attracted 295 co-sponsors with a range of political philosophies, including Hawaii liberal Rep. Neil Abercrombie and Rep. Jeb Hensarling, an outspoken conservative from Texas.

The bill would direct the Government Accountability Office, the congressional watchdog agency, to complete by the end of 2010 an audit of the Fed's Board of Governors and its banks. Current law shields the Fed from scrutiny of its work on monetary policy and its dealings with foreign banks.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has insisted that any congressional audits should steer clear of the central bank's core mission – setting interest rates to foster economic growth, employment and low inflation.

Since its creation almost a century ago, the Fed's profile has increased substantially. In addition to setting monetary policy, the Fed supervises banks to ensure the "safety and soundness" of the financial system and enforces rules to protect consumers.

Most alarming to lawmakers is the Fed's $2 trillion balance sheet after invoking emergency powers during last year's market crisis to lend money to companies outside the financial sector and buy up mounds of short-term commercial debt.

"I simply do not believe that ultimately an unelected group of individuals should have unfettered ability to impose trillions of dollars of taxpayer exposure liability without some type of check or constraint by the people's elected officials," said Hensarling.

Alvarez countered that the Fed is still accountable to Congress because it testifies on its activities and cooperates with GAO investigations in areas other than monetary policy and foreign dealings.

Obama has proposed a major overhaul of the regulatory system that would strip the Fed of its consumer protection role and hand that to a separate government agency. But the plan would give the Fed another major role in influencing the market by putting it in charge of regulating institutions deemed "too big to fail."

In a bid to mollify critics who say the Fed should be more accountable, Obama also proposed a requirement that the Fed obtain Treasury Department approval before extending credit to institutions in "unusual and exigent circumstances."

####

Some of the comments are hilarious.

####

Barney Frank held a hearing today on Ron Paul's bill. It's on C-Span here.

Anonymous said...

Anyone have any idea of the school enrollment this year , as compared to last year?

Anonymous said...

Are the ski resorts lowering prices on lift tickets?

Anonymous said...

On Sept 9, there was a report that enrollment was "flat."

I have heard that there is some bump up in public schools due to people moving their kids from expensive private schools.

Anonymous said...

Looks like Iran might give Obama the opportunity to look like a militarily strong President.

Bewert said...

AGENDA

Juniper Ridge Management Board


Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Time: 3:00 p.m.

Location: Council Chambers, City Hall

Roll Call

1. Infrastructure Planning:

a. Water System - scope & budget verification

b. Collection System – scope & budget verification

c. Natural Gas – planning status & budget update

d. Water System Pressure Zone issue – status update

2. Transportation Planning:

a. Presentation on Overlay System Development Charges

b. Discussion on Formation of a Transportation Management Association

c. Status of TRP Analysis, 2030 Projected Traffic Impact, & Draft Mitigations

d. Proposed Agenda for Presentation to Oregon Transportation Commission–November 18, 2009

3. Codes, Covenants & Restrictions: Status Update on Document Development

4. Design Guidelines: Status Update on Document Development

5. Suterra / PPL Partition Plat: Status Update on Document Development

6. Administrative Matters:

a. Date & Time of Next Meeting

b. Review of COB Minutes from the February, July & August 2009 meetings

c. Bend 2030 Action Items

7. Executive Session Pursuant to ORS 192.660 (2) (a-e)

8. Adjourn

####

Re: d. Water System Pressure Zone issue – status update

Somebody should look into that.

Bewert said...

Re: Looks like Iran might give Obama the opportunity to look like a militarily strong President.

###

Who the fuck cares. We spend a hundred times more than any other country on our military. It doesn't matter who the fuck the President is, we can bomb nations into parking lots.

But we can't forcibly rule another population a few thousand miles away.

Hell, Israel has failed miserably forcibly ruling a population a dozen miles away.

So why bother trying?

So you can grab your balls with nationalistic fervor?

####

Why not worry about taking care of ourselves, starting with universal health care like the rest of the fucking first world has?

Anonymous said...

Totally why this is a good example?should I get a permit to put an addition to my house when in fact when i do they The government will first impose a permit fee and then raise my taxes because I improved my dwelling?Sort a sounds like the germanic overrule of the roman empire.hbm do you support the suppresion of our society?

Anonymous said...

5. Suterra Biocyanide Munitions / PPL Partition Iran Plat: Status Weapons Development DARPA Update on Document Development

Somebody should look into this? Nah, this is Bend, is this is jobs.

Anonymous said...

You people need to ruberneck bush the iranians are going to sell oil in euros rather than dollars. This spells war Looks like Iran might give Obama the opportunity to look like a militarily strong President.
You sir are a very weak person.
September 25, 2009 2:52 PM

Anonymous said...

When I'm not working on perpetual motion machines, well I work on inventions. The past forty years of my life I have been striving on 'Bend Perfume', HBM ( My Precious ) he say it like shit and sage, but I say no.

I have now perfected the essence of Bend.

Eat duck or geese shit for 1-2 weeks, and then stick you finger up your ass, and wave in front of your nose for 3-4 minutes to dry. Then take a wiff, its Bend, and we have hit the jackpot. I share this with you my friends because I know that all of you will share the rewards with me.

We now can reverse engineer 'Bend Perfume' and sell this product to the world, the world no longer needs to cum to Bend, now Bend can cum to the world.

I think this is my greatest discovery, well its second to the BP Perpetual motion turbine energy butt-plug, but hell that put Bend on the map and started the post 2000 RE gold rush.

I think Bend perfume will be bigger than butt-plugs. I think homer should buy RE today.


Love,

Anonymous said...

Iran selling its oil in Euro's rather than the all mighty Jew-Tah dollar.

Who could have guessed, who could have known?

Anonymous said...

come on hbm Looks like Iran might give Obama the opportunity to look like a militarily strong President.

September 25, 2009 2:52 PM

do you really believe this shit ? hbm come on brother where the hell are you? because I am not buying your political bullshit

Anonymous said...

When I'm not working on perpetual motion machines, well I work on inventions. The past forty years of my life I have been striving on 'Bend Perfume', HBM ( My Precious ) he say it like shit and sage, but I say no.

I have now perfected the essence of Bend.

Eat duck or geese shit for 1-2 weeks, and then stick you finger up your ass, and wave in front of your nose for 3-4 minutes to dry. Then take a wiff, its Bend, and we have hit the jackpot. I share this with you my friends because I know that all of you will share the rewards with me.

What a week cop out do you even have a spine?

Anonymous said...

come on bro what the fuck are you thinking about? This is america the home of the brave (mabe not you)We have rights and we will stand up for them. Come on brothers we have the right don't we Hbm?

Anonymous said...

Bend is wonderful.
Everyone wants to move here.
The rebound is right around the corner.
If you were here in the early 80's, you know it took another decade to rebound. This recession is worldwide, so a decade would be optomistic.

hbm said...

I get real hard thinking about this.

Think of an OREO, you know Bush on the inside and Obama on the outside.

You call it "OR-BUSH-EO".

Mission Accomplished, I think we have it today, and I'm proud to be an American. Nobody can call us racist, and now we'll have a 1,000 points of light forever. Shining out of every niggers ass.

God bless America, and Princeton Grad's.

Anonymous said...

Call Me 'Ishmael', I mean "Moss"

The Georgia Department of Banking and Finance took over Georgian Bank late Friday and appointed the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. receiver. The FDIC then arranged for all of the failed institution's deposits and essentially all of its assets to be assumed by First Citizens Bank and Trust of Columbia, S.C. The acquiring bank is a subsidiary of First Citizens Bancorp(FCBN Quote).

Georgian Bank specialized in construction lending to residential developers in the suburbs of Atlanta and also provided private banking services to businesses and wealthy depositors. More than half of the bank's assets were concentrated in construction loans and commercial real estate loans.

Credit quality took a nosedive in the second quarter, with nonperforming assets -- including nonaccrual loans and accruing loans past due 90 days or more, along with repossessed real estate -- making up 17.19% of total assets as of June 30. That marked a deterioration from the previous quarter, when the nonperforming assets ratio was 5.13%.

Hey these numbers look good compared to CACB.

Anonymous said...

http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/financials/drawFiling.asp?formType=10-K

CACB has a non-perform of over 7% YTD, so why is the FED waiting for the bitch to die?

Non-performing assets (3) 159,425 55,681 3,005 40 483
Non-performing assets to total loans 7.00 % 2.33 % 0.13 % 0.00 % 0.05 %

Anonymous said...

Obama won Oregon in 2008. The Fed does not want to upset the applecart until absolutely necessary.
Mid term elections are only 13 months away. Obama will do anything to keep the majority in Congress .

blackdog said...

Because of all the hbm impostors posting outrageous shit, I'm not going to use the hbm name anymore. Instead I'm using my other Google account persona, "blackdog." So henceforth anything that appears on this site under the name "hbm" is NOT by me.

Sincerely,
H. Bruce Miller aka hbm

blackdog said...

Something outrageous on the front page of today's Bully: The future of the Riverbend Beach dog park is in doubt because apparently somebody interested in buying one of Pahlisch’s “Deschutes Landing” shacks doesn’t like the idea of having a dog park near them – even though it’s all the way on the other side of the river. Pahlisch is bitching that they weren’t properly notified of plans for the park – although there was a lengthy series of public hearings on where dog parks would be sited. Bottom line is they want to take away a facility that the whole community enjoys for the sake of selling a house to some selfish bastard who evidently wants the river (and the opposite bank) to be treated as his personal property.

If the dog park is taken away I hope the park district sells the property and somebody erects the biggest, most butt-ugly building the law allows directly across from Pahlisch's overpriced riverfront dumps.

Bewert said...

More tax cases vs wealthy, U.S. banks: U.S. prosecutor

By Kim Dixon

CHICAGO (Reuters) - The U.S. government is stepping up prosecutions of wealthy individuals dodging taxes through off-shore accounts, with new cases expected to be made public "every couple of weeks," a top government attorney said on Saturday.

U.S. officials have been sifting through about 250 client names obtained through a February settlement of a criminal probe against Swiss banking giant UBS AG, alleging the bank illegally helped U.S. taxpayers hide funds offshore.

That effort, along with an amnesty program encouraging tax evaders to turn themselves in, is speeding prosecutions, one of the top U.S. lawyers working on the cases at the U.S. Justice Department said.

"You can expect a few every couple of weeks," Kevin Downing, a senior attorney in the tax division of the Department of Justice told an American Bar Association tax conference.

On the sidelines of the conference, Downing also told Reuters that U.S. banks that helped U.S. clients hide money off-shore are a target.

"The folks in the United States that we get information on are obviously the easiest ones for us to pursue," he said.

"So anybody in the U.S. ... the U.S. banks helping U.S. clients set these offshore accounts up, we are doing the same thing," in going after them, he said.

In August, UBS AG agreed to disclose the names of 4,450 American holders of secret accounts at the bank, ending a related lawsuit that has begun to show cracks in Switzerland's prized banking secrecy.

"The UBS case has been a great success for the government," Downing said. "It is not an anomaly. It is the beginning of what is now a resource-intensive," process of going after other banks and countries.

The government has secured six guilty pleas so far in its effort, including one on Friday, where a New Jersey man pleaded guilty for failing to report about $6.1 million he had held in a UBS AG Swiss bank account.

On a parallel track to the UBS case, the government last Monday extended a temporary amnesty program by three weeks to October 15, to encourage wealthy Americans with undeclared assets abroad to come forward.

Those taking part in the amnesty program pay reduced penalties and generally avoid criminal prosecution.

Downing also said the government has "made a lot of headway" in dealing with foreign banks, Downing said. "Let your clients know if they think it's just UBS they are mistaken," he told the group of tax lawyers.

####

Do you think this would happen under W?

Bewert said...

Re: The future of the Riverbend Beach dog park is in doubt because apparently somebody interested in buying one of Pahlisch’s “Deschutes Landing” shacks doesn’t like the idea of having a dog park near them...

####

That's fucking rich. They've been trying to sell those since long before I left.

Of course, you've got to show up or put in a complaint using your real name to fight it, which ain't going to happen in Bend.

tim said...

I thought the Pahlisch move was absolutely disgusting. Especially how he's complaining about closing one deal in particular where the buying is hesitating. It's just nauseating.

I don't blame the buyer for hesitating, of course. But I sure hope the city does the right thing.

Bewert said...

Re: But I sure hope the city does the right thing.

####

You can hope or you can help.

Anonymous said...

that's unreal!...but it's Bend real.

You don't wanna live near a dog park, THEN DON'T!

Anonymous said...

The thing is, these Pahlisch places are practically in a park anyway. They are kind of an eyesore when you're floating down the river. I find it irritating that they were even built there. And the dog park is across the damned river from them.

Anonymous said...

Anyone surprised that the correct process was not followed on the dog park? I'm not.

blackdog said...

"You don't wanna live near a dog park, THEN DON'T!"

If I knew that a dog park was planned for that site on the river then you can be damn sure Pahlisch knew about it -- it's been in the news for months. But they didn't raise any objections until one prospective buyer objected. Now they say they weren't given proper notice.

I don't like the butt-ugly "Sun Meadow" development that Pahlisch put next to my back yard -- giant two-story, 3,000-square-foot crapshacks crammed onto 3,200-square-foot lots. Maybe I should raise a stink and demand that it be torn down.

tim said...

There was a year of discussion, according to a March article in the Bulletin. It was also covered on TV news. There were maps in the paper at least once.

The parks opened May 30.

Anonymous said...

Ironic isn't it? They keep opening dog parks even while the children's museum closes down.

Are dogs becoming more popular than children?

Anonymous said...

Blackdog? Now I am really intimidated because i own 2 of um. Yes that is a word um. I own 2 blacklabs and they are the best dogs any one could own. such peaceful dogs they mind very well. When i say sit they sit. when i say laydown they laydown. when i say speak they bark. This is the gods honest truth they are the most submissive animals on the face of this earth.

Anonymous said...

Yes, hbm has corrupted and insulted the name blackdog, forever disparaging black labs everywhere.

For here forward, everyone should now refer to hbm (aka blackdog) as niggerdog, since that better reflects the racist hbm more accurately.

Anonymous said...

Now i am begining to think is this bb2 blog a high school project come on is it? the response is elementry to blackdog you guys are smart don't get me wrong or ccb students getting a kick out of trying to mess with the older generation? that's it

tim said...

"Are dogs becoming more popular than children?"

Your child can run around the dog park and poop, as long as you clean up after it. And as long as your child obeys voice commands and is not aggressive.

tim said...

"Now i am begining to think is this bb2 blog a high school project come on is it? the response is elementry to blackdog you guys are smart don't get me wrong or ccb students getting a kick out of trying to mess with the older generation? that's it"

Um, what? Please have your teacher correct your work before posting it.

Anonymous said...

Ironic isn't it? They keep opening dog parks even while the children's museum closes down.

The Children's Museum has nothing to do with the city. Kids need parks and dogs need parks. The city has provided plenty of space for kids to play. It is sad the Working Wonders is closing but this has nothing to do with the city.

Anonymous said...

Um, what? Please have your teacher correct your work before posting it.

September 26, 2009 7:51 PM

What i posted is what could be who is black dog? seems such a shame we are headed into the next economic depression not seen since not 1930 but 1830.everyone here needs to enter realist doctrine verses everything gonna be ok doctrine

tim said...

hbm has been blackdog for ages on Duncan's site.

Anonymous said...

so what?hbm has been blackdog for ages on Duncan's site. You people had better wake up . This is reallity food shortages unemployment benifits running out the dollar is tanking. look people tim hbm blackdog i hate to burst your bubble duncin what ever hede my warnings our society is entering unpreceded territory.no that statement is wrong i will admit not since 1830's

Anonymous said...

I agree from now H Bowel Movement should be referred to as Nigger-Dog.

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