Sunday, September 6, 2009

Goodbye Boys of Summer... that includes Patty Moss.

I'll make this a short one, since it's the last weekend of Summer...

I saw a pretty amazing home offers over at Forum Meadows. Not "amazing" because they are Good Deals, but amazing because they show how terrible things have gotten in Bend, and amazing in illustrating the after-effects of copious Kool-Aid consumption.


$129990 / 3br - Finished Newer Homes-Ready Now! (Bend) (map)
Date: 2009-08-08, 8:05AM PDT

Introducing Newer Homes from 1113 - 2100 sqft at Forum Meadows in East Bend Near St Charles Hospital. There are 3 floor plans to choose from and all homes are complete and ready for occupancy.

These are well appointed homes with tile counters, solid wood floor entries, appliances, finished garages, window blinds, fenced yards, accented exteriors, landscaping and underground sprinklers. They are 2 blocks from shopping, restaraunts and movie theater.

These homes are now for steal at $200,000 below 07' listing price.

They are in better shape than any bank owned home and you will receive an answer within 2 days of your offer.

If you're tired of making rejected, competing offers on homes that need repairs, then call Nancy @ 541-480-4599 or Matt @ 541-280-9576 today for information on these clean and ready to move in homes.

These Forum Meadows shitshacks are down 63% from their original ask prices of $349,500. Remember Pollocks infamous statement about STEALING?

Oregon subdivision a ghost town
Saturday, December 22, 2007 at 12:00 AM

Buena Vista Custom Homes unloaded 141 homes last weekend in what company says was the biggest residential home auction in state history. But none of the 29 in Bend sold.

Still, in every place except Bend, the auction achieved what Pollock set out to do — get rid of expensive-to-carry housing inventory. And it gave him some cash to use on his next moves.

"The sale of the homes from the auction put us in a great position as a buyer," Pollock said in a news release. "There are some great deals to be had out there right now on lots."

Some of the Bend houses attracted bids, Higgins said, but none of the bids came close enough to meeting the reserve prices to justify finalizing sales on any of the homes, Higgins said.

"They were trying to steal them," Higgins said.

The company retained the right to reject any final bids below its unpublished reserve prices, Higgins said. It was obligated to close on any final bids that rose above that level.

Buena Vista had hoped to see bidding start at $189,000 for its 1,133-square-foot models in Bend and $229,000 on its 2,116-square-foot homes.

Original asking prices had been $349,500 and $443,950, respectively.

Tamara Christensen and her family live nearby. She had hoped the auction would work at least well enough to fill the houses with people who would landscape the bare-dirt backyards she sees out of her back windows.

But another nearby resident said she was OK with the way it is.

"I kind of like having fewer neighbors," Charlene Gossling said.

"It's quiet."

I'm not sure how many times I ranted about Pollock taking the low bids for those cracker-ass shitshacks, and being happy to get them, but it was quite a few. He's still on the RIP Hall of Shame masthead.

I'm telling you folks... this thing isn't over by a long shot. THIS is where some Realtor would jump in and say something about "nowhere to go but up", or some shit. They've been saying that for 2 years. Is this UP?

It's stupid ideas like Pollocks STD-fest that'll be taking down this town for decades to come.

Speaking about Taking Down, someone (Ballzee) posted a link to the actual Cease & Desist order sent to Cracker Ass Motherfucking Butt-Fugly Patty Moss, and that shithole Fraud-U-Net Bank she whores over, Cascade Bank.

Funny, but this is yet another example of The Guy On The Street Saw It Coming YEARS Before The Lying Dumbfucks Who Are Actually Perpetrating The Fraud. This raises the question whether Moss KNEW she was blowing up CACB, or whether she is a fucking moron. I vote MORON.

So anyway, back to the order. Click the link, and read it, but I'd agree with Ballzee, it is damn "harsh":

the Bank...cease and desist from the following unsafe banking practices...
  1. operating with management whose policies and practices are determinetal to the Bank and jeopardize the safety of its deposits;
  2. operating with inadequate capital in relation to the kind and quality of assets held by the Bank;
  3. operating with a board of directors that which has failed to provide adequate supervision over and direction to the active management of the Bank;
  4. operating with inadequate loan valuation reserve;
  5. operating with a large volume of poor quality loans;
  6. operating in such a manner as to produce operating losses;
  7. operating with inadequate provisions for liquidity;

I mean Holy Shit! If that ain't a stinging rebuke for Moss, I don't know what is. The rest of the order is a bunch of micro-management directives about HIRING PEOPLE WHO KNOW HOW TO RUN A BANK, with the VERY OBVIOUS implication that those who are there now, DO NOT KNOW HOW TO.

One of the directives from Sheila BEAR HUG Bair, is that Mossco get Tier 1 capital up to 10%. It is not even close now:

Cascade Bancorp (Oregon) Announces Filing of Form 10-Q Quarterly Report and Financial Results for the Second Quarter of 2009
At June 30, 2009, the Company's leverage, tier 1 capital and total risked-based capital ratios were 5.19%, 6.03% and 8.87%, respectively...

FDIC also lays out how Mossy can and cannot raise money, one of which is the hilarious "raise it from the Board of Directors"! WTF! I also believe that "Begging for the money in the local lie-filled rag" is another legit money-raising avenue.

Mossy can also issue new stock... but hmmmm... that is NOT happening. I wonder why? Oh right... Wall Street would rather buy large, puss-ee (pussy?) maggots and eat them. Wall St would no more buy CACB stock than it'd rise & fly. Even CACB's largest shareholder KNOWS that this bank is DEAD & GONE, and will not give a nickel to save it.

OK, so I think Mossy & Pollock have finally earned their badge of shame on our RIP masthead.

OK, just some interesting pieces I read this week. First, I can't help but reprint the BBC piece, since it's hard with the character limits in the comments, and I think it's just a great balance to what you hear from Costa (ie 100% BULLSHIT):

Economic crash in Oregon boomtown

By Adam Brookes BBC News, Bend, Oregon

Bend, Oregon was a 21st century American boomtown. It is a beautiful place, in the high desert of central Oregon, amid mountains.

The sunshine is warm, the air crisp and filled with the scent of bitterbrush and pine.
Its people are gracious, their gorgeous surroundings imbuing them with a certain American languidness.

All these attributes were - in the minds of the city's ambitious planners and businessmen - what would bring the retirees and tourists flocking to Bend. To accommodate them, a boom in housing began.

Boom and bust

The population of Bend quadrupled in under 20 years - from 20,000 to 80,000.
Between 2001 and 2005, the median value of a home in Bend rose by 80%.

By 2005, work was getting underway on 700 new homes each month.

Some of the developments are stunning: houses filled with mountain light clinging to craggy hillsides.

More than 17% of the workforce was employed in construction - far higher than the national average.

In what had once been an isolated lumber and mill town, high-end restaurants and brewhouses opened. Shops selling expensive bric-a-brac bloomed. Massage therapists and hairdressers proliferated.

Downtown Bend looks like a shrine to post-millenial bijou: pricey shoes, scented candles, fancy coffee. There is even a shop specialising in beachwear - despite Bend's location in the high desert.

But when the US slumped, Bend crashed.

The value of a home fell 40% in under two years.
And unemployment nearly quadrupled from around 4% two years ago to 15% in the summer of 2009.

"Everything that Bend produced relied on the credit market", says Carolyn Eagan, an economist with the Oregon Department of Employment.

"Construction materials, doors and fittings, recreational vehicles: everything depended on people being able to consume more than they could use."

Now the credit has dried up, and the building of Bend has stopped.
The town is dotted with developments that got underway, and then ground to a halt.

They are desolate expanses of weeds, dust and discarded construction materials.

Homeless shelter

In downtown Bend, we met Dan Hardt. Mr Hardt used to employ 20 people hanging drywall in Bend's new homes.

He owned three houses of his own, and a boat.

He used to go on elk-hunting trips.
Now it is gone - all of it.

"When the building stopped, the lifestyle went very fast," he told us.

"It's a lifestyle I don't see coming back."

Dan now lives at the Bethlehem Inn
, a motel converted to an emergency homeless shelter.

"Those who were living at the at the top of the heap and who have fallen to the bottom, they don't know where to go for help, they don't know how to get that help.

There's anger and frustration and a sense of entitlement," says Corky Senecal, who heads emergency housing services for Neighbor Impact, and has 30 years experience of providing services for the poor.

"The middle class is where it's really been decimated," she says.
When you lose your job in America, you will receive financial aid from the government. But it is limited.

Typically, an unemployed worker in Bend will get state benefits for a period of six months to a year. After that, as many in Bend are discovering, you are on your own.

In addition, the loss of a job frequently means the loss of health insurance and payments into retirement funds.

This limited social safety net means unemployment in America can be devastating.
"It's not just the job that stops," says Dan Hardt. "Everything else stops with it."

Ms Senecal introduced us to to Randy Worrell and his 11-year-old daughter, Patty.
Mr Worrell, a burly 42-year-old former firefighter, was laid off from a variety of jobs.

He has not worked since the end of last year - and his unemployment benefits have run out.

"I don't know what I will do from one day to the next," he says.

Lesson learned
Neighbor Impact has put him and Patty in temporary accommodation. He will look for work, he says, for six hours a day.

And he is deeply sceptical of pronouncements emanating from Washington DC that the US economy is showing signs of recovery.

"Lately it's all, 'the economy is turning around'. No, it's not. At least it's not for us," he says. "I don't think we've even hit rock bottom yet. I think we have some way to go."

Bend, Oregon has a great deal going for it, and will, no doubt, experience some sort of recovery. The population of the city has not noticeably shrunk, which is a good sign.

But no-one expects the housing market ever to revert to its previous, ferocious levels of activity. And many will tell you they have no desire for it to do so, that Bend has learned a lesson about bubbles.

But in the US, joblessness can alter a life trajectory for ever. Seven and a half million Americans have lost their job since the start of the recession.

And unemployment's clawmarks will be visible on the face of Bend, and of the US, for a long while to come.

Some of this reporting is a little misguided (gracious?), but it is definitely not a piece you would EVER find in any Bend media outlet. It's basically an onthology and cataloging of greed and it's after-effects. Again, you will NEVER see this sort of thing from the Bully.

Another good piece I saw was from Mish:

Friday, September 04, 2009

How Overpriced Is The S&P 500?

Inquiring minds are wondering How Overpriced Is The S&P?

It's an excellent question given bulls feel the market is headed much higher while the bears feel the opposite after a remarkable 50% rally.

Let's start off with a look at the financial sector where Allowances for Loan and Lease Losses (ALLL) have plunged even though non-performing loans soar.

To understand the importance of ALLL, inquiring minds are reading a description of Allowances for Loan & Lease Losses.

Businesses try to predict, on an ongoing basis, the amount of loss in their accounts. They take periodic charges to earnings to better match losses to periods when they occurred. Banks do this as well.

They use current income, through the provision for loan and lease losses, to create and build a reserve to absorb losses.
The ALLL can be increased another way.

When the bank collects on previously charged-off loans, the amount recovered goes into the ALLL.
Charged-off loans decrease the ALLL.

If a bank decides it has overestimated its potential loss exposure, it can choose to reduce its ALLL and add the amount to its income. This is known as making “reverse provisions” for loan and lease losses, because the bank decreases the allowance, or reserve amount, rather than increasing the provision.

It is rare for a bank to make a reverse provision, however, because of the imprecise nature of determining an appropriate reserve.
One last point to remember with respect to the reserve is that the ALLL is a general reserve.

Therefore, even if a bank analyzes and estimates the loss on each loan, the allowance is there to absorb all losses in the loan portfolio and is not specific to a particular loan.
Remember that allowances for loan losses will decrease as charge offs increase. However, the above charts are in relation to non-performing loans.

Because allowances for loan losses are a direct hit to earnings, and because allowances are at ridiculously low levels, bank earnings have been wildly over-stated.
Bank Profits Too Good To Be True Flashback April 16, 2009:

Wells Fargo’s Profit Looks Too Good to Be True:

Jonathan Weil
What sent Wells shares soaring on April 9 was a three-page press release in which the San Francisco-based bank said it expected to report first-quarter net income of about $3 billion.

Wells disclosed few details of what was in that figure. And by pushing the stock up 32 percent that day to $19.61, investors sent a clear message: They didn’t care.

Dig below the surface of Wells’s numbers, though, and there are reasons to be wary. Here are four gimmicks to look out for when the company releases its first-quarter results on April 22:

Gimmick No. 1: Cookie-jar reserves.

Wells’s earnings may have gotten a boost from an accounting maneuver, since banned, that it used last year as part of its $12.5 billion purchase of Wachovia Corp. Specifically, Wells carried over a $7.5 billion loan-loss allowance from Wachovia’s balance sheet onto its own books -- the effect of which I’ll explain in a moment.

Once it took control of the reserve from Wachovia, Wells was free to start dipping into it to absorb new credit losses on all sorts of loans, including loans Wells had originated itself. (Think of a child raiding a cookie jar.)

The upshot is that Wells could get by with reduced provisions until the $7.5 billion is used up, boosting net income.

Another quirk: The reserve was related to $352.2 billion of Wachovia loans for which Wells was not forecasting any future credit losses, according to Wells’s annual report.
Weil goes on with three other highly suspicious (at best) practices by Wells Fargo, including a balance sheet holding of $109 billion of "other assets".

Weil writes:
"The footnote says the largest component was a $44.2 billion bucket that Wells labeled as “other.” Yes, that’s right: The biggest portion of “other assets” was “other.” And what did this include? The disclosure didn’t say. Neither would Bernard.

Talk about a black box. That $44.2 billion is more than Wells’s tangible common equity, even using the bank’s dodgy number. And we don’t have a clue what’s in there.

FDIC Problem Bank List Soars To 416

For a nice discussion of some of the problems facing the financial sector, please consider For FDIC, a long tunnel and little light by Rolfe Winkler at Option Armageddon.

FDIC’s problem bank list grew to 416 at the end of last quarter. These banks have $300 billion of assets.

In total, FDIC estimates the banking sector is wrestling with $332 billion worth of loans and leases on which borrowers have stopped making payments. That excludes hundreds of billions worth of underwater loans that may be current now but will ultimately default.

Many banks, including the largest ones, are likely to struggle for some time.

How Big is the B of A, and Citigroup Problem?

Citigroup and Bank of America have received hundreds of billions of dollars of government support, but, precisely because of that support, they’re not on the FDIC’s list.

Adding them to it would multiply total problem assets 10 times, to $3 trillion.
Asset prices aren’t going back to their highs of 2006-2007, so loans held against them will be generating losses for years.

The FDIC may raise enough cash from banks to fund depositor losses in small and medium-sized banks, but it is clear that the biggest banks are far too large for them to handle.

As a result, the government’s emergency rescue measures aren’t going away for a while. And taxpayers should expect to be writing fat bailout checks to the financial system for years to come.

America’s Japanese banks Inquiring minds are reading America’s Japanese banks also by Winkler.

A banking system loaded down with hundreds of billions of dollars worth of unrecognized bad debt — Japan in the 1990s? No, it’s the United States today.
And where are American banks hiding their losses?

Among other places, in their loan portfolios. Banks have written down billions in toxic securities, but many toxic loans are still carried at close to full value.
According to data published by the Federal Reserve late last year, banks are carrying $3 trillion of residential real estate loans and $1.7 trillion of commercial real estate loans on their books for a total of $4.7 trillion.

Dan Alpert at Westwood Capital thinks as much as a fifth of that total could be uncollectable.
Banks argue that loans should not be marked down if they’re still “performing.”

As long as borrowers are meeting their contractual obligations, there’s no reason to take a writedown. The problem is, this gives banks an excuse to extend, amend and pretend. They can make concessions on loan terms or delay foreclosure notices, if only to maintain the fiction that borrowers will make good.

With real estate prices likely to fall, and stay, 40 percent below the peak, borrowers have a big incentive to renege on their side of the bargain. This is how we become Japan.

Emergency bailout facilities allow banks that otherwise would have failed under the weight of bad loans to hold those loans to maturity — pretending the bad ones will be paid off in full over time.

In reality, many loans will default and banks will bleed capital for years. Take commercial real estate. As the Congressional Oversight Panel has reported, few CRE loans that were originated at the peak will qualify for refinancing when they mature.

Banks can pretend they will, carrying the loans at values far above what will ever be paid back.

So what do we do? We can start by eliminating government guarantees that allow banks to avoid dealing with the problem.

As things stand, the biggest banks have no incentive to write down loans because the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and Treasury Department have, in effect, promised them unlimited financing to hold loans to maturity.

As the Japanese can tell you, this is just a recipe for stagnation. Thanks to a debt bubble that authorities refused to deal with decisively, that country is now entering its third consecutive lost decade.

S&P 500 Earnings Given that loan loss provisions directly affect earnings. Let's take a look a PE chart of the S&P 500 from Chart of the Day.
PE Ratio, S&P 500

That chart was from earlier in the month. Nearly all companies have now reported and the PE is down to 127.43.

If that sounds preposterous you can check the S&P 500 Excel Spreadsheet right on Standards and Poors.
Real vs. Operating Earnings The chart above is based on actual reported earnings.

Unfortunately it's difficult to find anyone stating P/E ratios based on actual earnings. Instead, because the media and investor bias tends towards being 100% invested 100% of the time, nearly all estimates you see are based on "operating earnings".

Barron's had an excellent article on this subject in May of 2008. It is as relevant today as it was then. Please consider What's the Real P/E Ratio?
There are two main earnings numbers that Wall Street uses when discussing valuations -- "reported earnings" or "operating earnings."

Typically, the bulls use "operating earnings," and the bears use "reported earnings" because operating earnings are higher and reported earnings are lower.

Also, it makes sense for the bears to use the past 12 months of earnings because they are usually lower, and for the bulls to use forward operating earnings to help make their case.

Using the last 12 months is much more consistent, since it avoids dependence on estimates of earnings.
Operating earnings exclude write-offs, while reported earnings include write-offs.

That is the only difference, but it's a difference that is getting much more important.

As recently as the early 1990s, operating and reported earnings were virtually the same. But then we entered the greatest financial mania of all time, and the earnings numbers diverged.

There were so many write-offs by companies making unwise investments and then undoing them that operating earnings grew much faster than reported earnings.

The write-offs that had been sporadic and unusual became common for many companies.
Using operating earnings is now like playing in a golf tournament that doesn't count any penalty strokes for hitting the ball into a water hazard or out of bounds.

Over the past 75 years, most market peaks topped at around 20 times reported earnings, and the troughs occurred at around 10 times earnings. The financial mania of the late 1990s pushed P/Es to over 40 times reported earnings, and the following bust never brought P/Es below 18 times reported earnings.

There's more we can do to make sense of earnings: The best way to measure present earnings and future earnings is to smooth them out over long periods.

Earnings can grow at only approximately 6% a year over the long term. The trend is limited by the growth in real GDP plus inflation.

And long term, real GDP cannot grow faster than the increase in the labor force plus the increase in productivity.

If you don't accept this, look at a long-term chart and draw a 6% growth line through the earnings. It is clear that earnings sometimes rise above the line and sometimes fall below it, but earnings always revert to the 6% mean.

Going back to 1950, every instance where actual earnings rose above trend-line earnings was followed by a period where actual earnings went well below trend-line earnings.

Creative Destruction

Please bear in mind that historical long term trends are just that. Intermediate-term, it is imperative to factor in demographics, changing consumer attitudes towards debt, willingness and ability of banks to lend, overall debt levels, etc.

I have discussed consumer attitudes many time, most recently in Creative Destruction.
Factors Sealing The Deflationary Fate

The five month, 50% rebound in the S&P 500 was certainly spectacular.

However, the more important question is where to from here?
Take a look at Japan's "Two Lost Decades" for clues.

Creative destruction in conjunction with global wage arbitrage, changing demographics, downsizing boomers fearing retirement, changing social attitudes towards debt in every economic age group, and massive debt leverage is an extremely powerful set of forces.

Bear in mind, that set of forces will not play out over days, weeks, or months. A Schumpeterian Depression will take years, perhaps even decades to play out.
Thus, deflation is an ongoing process, not a point in time event that can be staved off by massive interventions and Orwellian Proclamations "We Saved The World".

Bernanke and the Fed do not understand these concepts, nor does anyone else chanting that pending hyperinflation or massive inflation is coming right around the corner, nor do those who think new stock market is off to new highs.

In other words, almost everyone is oblivious to the true state of affairs.

How Overpriced Is The S&P?

Take another look at those charts kicking off this article. Factor in the analysis of Winkler and Weil. Factor in demographics, consumer attitudes, etc.

Factor in global wage arbitrage. Factor in loan loss provisions that have only one way to go, up. Factor in consumer debt levels, realizing that consumer spending is 70% of the economy.
Do the forward earnings estimates you hear from bulls make any sense to you? They do not make sense to me.

While it's hard to put a price tag on any of those components, we can look at Japan as a model as I have suggested on many occasions and Winkler is suggesting now.
If you have not yet done so, please consider Effect of Household Deleveraging on Housing, Consumption and the Stock Market.

Here is a snip pertaining to Japan, but there is much more in the article to see.

Nikkei, 28 yrs

A look at the Nikkei shows that Japan has already lost two decades since the peak in 1990. It is likely the US follows the same general pattern.

Of course some huge innovation like the internet could come along that would create enormous profits and employ millions of highly paid workers.

However, the odds of that are extremely small.
Thus, the risk/reward scenarios of long term investing are awful based on fundamentals alone.

Traders however, will have many opportunities in both directions.
All things considered, I suggest the S&P 500 is easily 50% overvalued based on what we know now.

That is not a prediction the S&P will be cut in half, rather it is my belief that it should be cut in half. Given that I have seen estimates as low as 200, I am not "SuperBear".

However, the reality is no one really knows what innovation is (or is not) coming, nor can anyone say for certain what valuations investors are willing to place on earnings. There are also foreign Central Bank issues to fact in.

With that in mind, the S&P could easily meander around this level for a decade while earnings catch up to what are now very poor valuation metrics.

As always, traders need to keep an open mind and not get locked into any scenario. Long-term investors will have to take what they get.

Unfortunately, I suggest those results are not likely to be very pretty.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

The title of the piece is sort of misleading because it is primarily about banking. What I think is amazing is the B of A and Citigroup chart.

These 2 banks on their own DWARF the size of the S&L problem several fold.

The number of failed institutions going down right now is quite low. But the size is incredible. And this graph doesn't even include AIG. Or Fannie. Or Freddie. Add those in, and you get a real sense that this current problem is something that will not fade away quietly.

Our government is trying to keep these companies off the FAILED board, because the incredible upset caused by just letting Lehman go (a piker in comparison) was not acceptable, and truly would have melted down the Worlds economies.

And it could still happen. I honestly do not think the US Government can recitify the situation. It's my strong belief that the bursting of the housing & credit bubble is the most important event of our lives (economically), and it's effects will be felt for decades.

And finally, I wanted to post this Oregonian piece.

Increase in Portland-area home foreclosures worries analysts
Posted by mgraves September 03, 2009 18:06PM

Portland-area foreclosure filings have begun ticking up again this summer, reversing a spring trend that showed mortgage defaults had leveled off.

County records show that the number of mortgage defaults -- the first step in a foreclosure -- rose less than 2 percent in Clackamas, Multnomah and Washington counties between the first and second quarters of 2009.

But this summer, new foreclosures are on pace to jump 9 percent in the third quarter to about 3,500 for the tri-county region, or 38 filings every day.

"We're not seeing any relief," said Sande Sivani, a consultant who researches property records and records documents for title companies. "It's going up and up and up."

The uptick comes as lenders, which months ago had put a moratorium on foreclosures, have grown more aggressive with struggling borrowers.

The housing market has seen a mild boost from bargain-hunting investors and first-time buyers chasing a federal tax credit. But the renewed interest isn't coming fast enough or broad enough for some home owners.

Double-digit unemployment and falling home values have pinched home owners between shrinking income and homes that are worth less than the mortgage debt. The position leaves them few options to avoid a default. "It's the high unemployment that's driving foreclosures," said Patrick Newport, U.S. economist with economics firm IHS Global Insight.

Banks, despite political pressure from the White House, remain reluctant to modify troubled mortgages to try to save homeowners from foreclosure. More frequently, borrowers whose mortgage fall into default are not escaping trouble.

Fitch Ratings Ltd., a credit-rating firm, examined mortgages that had been packaged into securities. The firm found that between 2000 and 2006, 45 percent of borrowers who fell behind on prime loans -- those with the best credit -- were able to "cure" their delinquency by catching up on their payments. But that cure rate has plunged to just 7 percent for prime loans.

For Alt-A loans, those with a slightly higher credit risk, the cure rate has fallen from 30 percent to 4 percent. For subprime loans, the riskiest type, the rate went from 19 percent to 5 percent.

In the three-county Portland area, Sivani said she found 800 loan modifications recorded in the first six months of the year. But, she said, her sampling found about only one in 10 were modifications tied to a delinquent mortgage.

Either way, those modifications were dwarfed by the more than 6,300 new mortgage defaults the lenders had recorded in those three counties in the same time period.

Despite Obama's calls for banks to lighten up on troubled borrowers, Newport said: "That isn't going to happen. Usually it's in the banks' interest to take the loan into foreclosure."

A July study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston found that lenders expect to make more money on foreclosures than from a modified loan. That's because a large percentage of borrowers historically either "cure" the delinquency on their own or they receive a loan modification, then default on the mortgage again.

By many measures, Oregon continues to fare better than the nation that's been dragged down by Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada. But in some cases, the state's woes are unmatched in its own record books.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported recently that about 8.5 percent of Oregon mortgage holders were at least 30 days delinquent or in some stage of foreclosure during the second quarter.

For the first time in this downturn, that figure has surpassed the previous high water mark set during the 1980s recession. The second quarter figure was the state's worst since the association started keeping track in 1979.

Those looking for a brighter outlook in the next year may have a difficult time.

Barclays Capital forecasts the number of foreclosed homes for sale will peak in mid-2010 at 1.15 million, up from an estimated 688,000 as of July 1, the Wall Street Journal reported.

IHS Global Insight's this week ranked Portland as the country's sixth most overvalued housing market. The firm says the Pacific Northwest is the final region to watch the froth of the boom years burn off.

Of the 11 markets labeled overvalued, seven fall in Oregon or Washington.
Dunc, please help me do horny FRASH-DANCE in this metal crib!
I wish I had a pearl necklace instead...
Now that the Downtowners gone, where we get an hbm sandwich?


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IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I actually think Forum Meadows is a great leading indicator of where prices are headed.

It's a great proxy for all the STD shitshacks that stand empty on the Eastside...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Mish quote:

How Many Rabbits Are Left In The Hat?

Growth may be underway, using the term loosely. However, sustainable growth is certainly not. Cash-For-Clunkers was a huge boondoggle that created no jobs. Instead it robbed some taxpayers for the sole benefit of others. Furthermore, and as discussed many times, it shifted demand forward.

Sound familiar?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And I couldn't agree more with this:

It's clear we are going to get a rebound in GDP. Nearly 100% of that rebound will be government spending.

Then what?

Then a double dip recession will come immediately as soon as government stops spending, or later even if it does not. Indeed, the US faces Structurally High Unemployment For A Decade

The Long Dreaded DOUBLE DIP... we'll finally get it.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I'm starting to hear NO MASSE to Bachelor this year... from some real Lifers.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I'd like to see the rest of this Bully piece:

Where hard times have just begun
Commercial real estate: Those who buy and sell office buildings, malls and warehouses are hardly in a festive mood, despite some encouraging signs in the job and housing markets.

September 6, 2009 4:00 am

As the commercial real estate market heated up earlier in the decade and lenders competed....MORE

Anyone got a subscription & some copy/paste?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

AH HA! Remember.... I said it would happen:

New FICO model may boost some scores

September 6, 2009 4:00 am

CHICAGO — Even the most responsible borrowers slip up sometimes. Maybe a utility bill went unpaid....MORE

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Sort of interesting posts on, in the biz section:

Store Equipment For Sale - $1 (Sisters, OR)
Date: 2009-09-03, 5:13PM PDT
Reply to: see below

4' sandwich case, 2 shelf $250
12' long by 2'9" deep open front vegi case $500
8' long by 2'9" deep open front, 4 tier deli case $500
2 POS systems, complete with register poles,scan wands,upc label printer,cash drawers $4000 total
wood shelving units, various sizes $50 to $100/ea
Misc kitchen equipment/wares
3 Coleman dinning tents $100/ea
10' by 10' event tent $200
Gas Bar-B- Que large size $100
3 Cambro hot boxes $75/ea
3 Large Iglo coolers $50/ea
2 Rolling bakers racks $100/ea
Single bay SS free standing prep sink with left hand drain board $250 complete with hardware
5' by 7' solid cooler door $100
2 3' by 7' glass cooler doors $75/ea
Rubber floor mats $10/ea
Cooler unit/condenser for a walk in cooler $500

You haul, all ready to pick up on 9-14-09 in Sisters. Call Gordon @ 541.280.3349 Will consider trades and volume discount! E-mail:

And then the next day, for sale:

Sisters Harvest Basket - $109000 (Sisters)

The Sisters Harvest Basket is central focal point of Sisters & the health of the community. Offering the freshest & organic products, The Sisters Harvest Basket has shown many years of profitability.

The Harvest Basket has been passed around like a $5 whore to innumerable owners in te past few years.

Looks like this guy is liquidating all the display hardware, and then selling the business... w/o the RE.

So WHAT exactly is he selling?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I've been "casually" (not real seriously) looking for a car in recent months on CL, and I can tell you that I will almost certainly have to go to Portland to actually buy anything.

Cars listed on Bend's CL are 40-50% higher that any major metro area. Actually they are higher than almost anywhere. Medford & Klamath have dirt cheap cars compared to Bend.

Drink it down folks... it's just like Pollock's STD-fest... but for cars.

Bend's used car market is going to CRASH hard in the next few years... thanks to massive Kool-Aid imbibing & Cash-4-Crunchers.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


I will almost certainly just fix my POS auto's for now. I KNOW they will crash & burn on price. C4C all but guarantees it.

Anonymous said...

Sisters Harvest Basket - $109000 (Sisters)

Originally listed by RE agent Ross Kennedy for $400K for the biz, and another $400K for the building and dirt. $800K total.

What's it worth now, with a gutted business? What is the building and land worth, if the is nobody left to pay the rent?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The Five Worst Bailouts

Has anything good come from $3 trillion worth of bailouts over the last 18 months? To be fair, probably. After Lehman Brothers failed in September 2008 and other Wall Street firms began to founder, urgent government intervention forestalled a deeper financial panic and perhaps even a depression. Instead of talking about a recovery today, we could be facing steep double-digit unemployment and many more months of misery.

But the Year of the Bailout also entailed some disturbing moments, and there may still be unhappy consequences. Here's my list of the worst bailouts:

AIG. Did the Federal Reserve know what it was getting into on Sept. 16, 2008? That's the day AIG would have collapsed if the Fed hadn't issued $85 billion in credit to the huge insurance company in exchange for a 79.9 percent ownership stake. The problem wasn't AIG's insurance units, which constitute most of the firm, but an internal hedge fund, AIG Financial Products, that was basically backing huge gambles with solid insurance assets. When the hedge fund bet wrong on billions in mortgage-backed securities, it imperiled the entire company.

The Fed's intervention may have prevented deep losses throughout the banking system, but it also committed the government to a tawdry, open-ended bailout that's easily the single-biggest corporate rescue in U.S. history. The March 2009 revelation that AIG paid $165 million in bonuses to executives at the same Financial Products division that sank the firm became the hottest flash point in the Year of the Bailout and the darkest stain on bailout architects like Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Barry Ritholtz, author of Bailout Nation, contends that the government could have taken over the Financial Products division and treated it as a failed bank, imposing losses on every firm that did business with the unit. "You're supposed to suffer pain and agony when you put money into a company that's as corrupt as that AIG hedge fund," Ritholtz says. The insurance units, he argues, could have been spun off as a new stand-alone company, freed from the albatross of Financial Products.

Bernanke has argued that since AIG wasn't a bank, the federal government lacked a legal and practical mechanism for taking over and dismantling the company. That's why the Obama administration wants Congress to grant the Fed new powers to take over "systemically significant" institutions like AIG when they fail. Meanwhile, the AIG bailout could wind on for another three or four years, and there's a good chance taxpayers will never get all their money back.

Citigroup (C). When other banks become insolvent, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. swoops in, fires management, zeroes out the stock, pays bondholders a portion of their investment, and either sells off the bank in pieces to other banks or runs it until a buyer is found. But not Citigroup. This lumbering giant would have collapsed on its own, but instead of a takeover, Citigroup got $25 billion in bailout funds in October 2008, then another $20 billion three months later. Plus taxpayers are on the hook for a big chunk of $301 billion in mortgage-backed securities and other dodgy assets on Citigroup's books. It could be years before Citigroup is healthy. CEO Vikram Pandit has said that the fazed bank will pay back the taxpayers in full. But there's no deadline, and Pandit himself could be long gone before taxpayers get a dime back.


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Bank of America (BAC). If this North Carolina-based bank hadn't picked up ailing brokerage firm Merrill Lynch in September 2008, it might be out of the woods by now. But the Merrill acquisition saddled BofA with billions in losses and made CEO Ken Lewis a corporate pariah. One of the most tawdry episodes in the Year of the Bailout was the battle between Lewis, who reportedly wanted to renege on the Merrill acquisition when he learned that the brokerage would post a $28 billion loss for 2008, and Bernanke, who threatened Lewis with the disapprobation of the Fed if he backed out, which basically equates to death by bank examiner. Lewis caved. Then a couple months later he got to explain why Merrill executives earned $3.6 billion in bonuses while taxpayers were providing $45 billion to keep the firm afloat. Go ahead. Scream.

Goldman Sachs (GS). Wall Street's toniest firm got $10 billion in TARP money in October 2008, along with eight other big banks that got government checks. Eight months later, Goldman was the first big bank to pay back its bailout money, with interest. Hooray for them. But Goldman also got a stealth bailout that will never be returned to taxpayers, courtesy of AIG. When the feds propped up AIG last fall, that allowed Goldman to ease its way out of nearly $6 billion worth of deals with AIG that could have been worth pennies on the dollar in a normal bankruptcy case. And later, Goldman got almost $14 billion of bailout money that went to AIG's trading partners, effectively redeeming Goldman's trading bets with AIG at 100 percent of their face value.

Other banks got a 100 percent redemption out of AIG too, but Goldman got the most. And the fact that Henry Paulson, who was treasury secretary during the first four months of the meltdown, had come straight from a stint as CEO of Goldman Sachs raised the awful prospect that billions in taxpayer money was going to favored Wall Street fat cats. Nobody has ever offered a convincing explanation for the delicate treatment Goldman received, which fuels the worst kind of speculation. Please, say it ain't so.

Bear Stearns. Nobody knew how momentous it was at the time, but the $30 billion deal in March 2008 to keep Bear from completely imploding set the stage for every bailout that followed—and some other disasters as well. Bear was one of the biggest players in the market for mortgage-backed securities, and it fell first when that market began to crumble. The Fed brokered a deal in which JPMorgan bought most of the firm for $1.2 billion, a fraction of Bear's former value, with the Fed taking on $29 billion worth of toxic securities nobody else would touch. The bailout helped calm markets at the time—partly because it created the expectation that the government would rescue any other Wall Street firm that got into trouble.

That led Lehman Brothers to turn down financing offers from Warren Buffett and others when it needed cash, presumably because the firm felt it could hold out for a better deal—from the government, if necessary. When the feds let Lehman fail in September 2008, the chaos that followed partly stemmed from deep confusion over who deserved a bailout and who deserved a bullet. In retrospect, it's plausible that if the feds had let Bear Stearns fail outright, they could have done a better job of forcing Wall Street to work out its own problems—while saving taxpayers several hundred billion dollars. Of course, we'll never know. You only get one chance to get an epic bailout right.

tim said...

Yet another short post from Butter.

hbm said...

The BBC piece contained nothing we didn't already know, but what I found interesting was the subtle jab toward the end at the US for not providing an adequate social safety net. As the piece pointed out, once your unemployment runs out here, you're on your own -- no home, no income (except charity), no medical care (except at the hospital emergency room). In those terrible "socialist" countries of Europe a person who loses a job has enough support to give him time to get back on his feet. Lose a job here and it may mean a lifetime of poverty for yourself and your family.

Anonymous said...


Your a dumb fucking 'apologist' on MOSS.

Face the facts.

1.) 12 years ago MOSS was a bank-teller.

2.) Today she owns $2M of MDU ( knife-river ) stock, ... of which she is a board member.

In between 1&2 she was allowed to run her own bank into the ground, and you call it stupidity.

Homer pull back the curtains once in your lazy fucking life, and look who profited from the $400M city debt that christian-moss&co got the good city into, ...

Have a nice day, ...

Fairy tales & Bend, BB2, Big Tits, and inflatable cocks. Children's tales.

Moron's NOT!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Your a dumb fucking 'apologist' on MOSS.

Buster? Is that.... you?


He's back! And it appears... yes.... wait for it.... he's STILL full of PISS & VINEGAR!

Anonymous said...

Where hard times have just begun

Commercial real estate: Those who buy and sell office buildings, malls and warehouses are hardly in a festive mood, despite some encouraging signs in the job and housing markets.
By Terry Pristin / New York Times News Service
As the commercial real estate market heated up earlier in the decade and lenders competed feverishly to issue ever-riskier mortgages, hundreds of bankers, investors, lawyers, brokers, appraisers, accountants and analysts flocked to an investors’ conference in Florida each January to celebrate their good fortune with lavish beach parties featuring bikini-clad models and popular entertainers.

But in what a Prudential Real Estate Investors report described as “a move of near-perfect symbolism,” the conference sponsor, the Commercial Mortgage Securities Association, recently announced that next year’s event would be relocated from South Beach to Washington, where the industry has been lobbying strenuously for federal assistance.

These days, the people who buy and sell office buildings, shopping centers, warehouses, apartment buildings and hotels are hurting despite some recent encouraging signs of a turnaround.

That’s probably because those signs are related to the job and housing markets, but there’s been a recent increase in sales of smaller office buildings, too.

Even though industry lobbyists were able to persuade Congress to extend a loan program aimed at prodding the stalled securitization market back to life, several analysts said it was unlikely to head off a spate of defaults, foreclosures and bankruptcies that could surpass the devastating real estate crash of the early 1990s. “It will prop up a few deals, but you can’t stop the wave that’s coming,” said Peter Hauspurg, the chief executive of Eastern Consolidated, a New York brokerage firm.

The distress is still in its early stages, analysts said. “We are between the first and second inning,” said Richard Parkus, who directs research on commercial mortgage-backed securities for Deutsche Bank. “We’re going to have to get through a very difficult period.”

Parkus said that vacancy declines and rent increases already mirrored what happened in the 1990s, and until new jobs were created, generating an increase in demand for commercial space and more retail spending, this was not likely to be reversed.

Drop in value

Building values have declined by as much as 50 percent around the country, and even more in Manhattan, where prices soared the highest. As many as 65 percent of commercial mortgages maturing over the next few years are unlikely to qualify for refinancing because of the drop in values and new stricter underwriting standards, he said.

Anonymous said...

Part 2 (due to 4k character limit)


Fitch Ratings recently reported that $36.1 billion in securitized loans — mortgages pooled, sliced into different categories of risk and sold to investors — have been transferred so far this year to a “special servicer,” an agency that handles troubled loans. Such a transfer is prompted by a bankruptcy, a 60-day delinquency or the prospect of an imminent default. In all, some 3,100 loans representing $49.1 billion, or 6.1 percent of the total, are currently in special servicing, an amount that could grow to nearly $100 billion by the end of the year, Fitch said.

But the damage is expected to be even greater for banks, which are holding $1.3 trillion in commercial mortgages (including apartment buildings) and $535.8 billion in construction and development loans, said Sam Chandan, the president of Real Estate Economics, a New York research company. About $393 million worth of mortgages are scheduled to mature by the end of next year alone, and an estimated $39 million more were due to expire this year but have been extended, he said.

By midyear, Real Capital Analytics, a New York research company, had identified $124 billion worth of distressed property. Less than 10 percent of the distress had been resolved through loan modifications or sales.

Special servicers

The rising incidence of delinquencies and defaults has cast a spotlight on the special servicers, who are chosen by the investors who hold the riskiest bonds, and, in most cases, are part of the same firm. Six companies control 85 percent of the business, according to Fitch.

One source of conflict is that pension funds, endowments and other institutional investors with the most protected securities are often eager to liquidate their positions as quickly as possible, and those with the riskier portions resist taking an immediate loss.

Patrick Sargent, the president of the Commercial Mortgage Securities Association, said that despite an apparent conflict of interest, the servicers are accountable to all classes of bondholders and are required to maximize the proceeds for the investment as a whole. Falling short can lead to a lawsuit or a ratings downgrade. “They are in a fishbowl,” he said. “They are going to be watched.”

Critics say the special servicers are overwhelmed by the current workload. “The people we are dealing with are swamped beyond any measure,” said Paul Fried, a managing director of Traxi, a New York consulting company, who is advising borrowers with securitized loans.

But one executive at a special servicer whose employer would not allow his or his company’s name to be used said that his firm had tripled its staff in the last two years, and that other companies were also hiring asset managers.

Despite the criticism, Stephanie Petosa, a managing director at Fitch, which rates special servicers, said they were equipped to handle the workload. “I think they are moving at a reasonable pace, given the current environment,” she said.

LavaBear said...

>>>2.) Today she owns $2M of MDU ( knife-river ) stock, ... of which she is a board member.

According to MDU's latest 14A proxy statement Moss owns 35,910 shares of MDU and at the going rate of $19.15 that equals $687k.

When you make shit up it's better to do so with info that isn't publicly available.

Anonymous said...

When you make shit up it's better to do so with info that isn't publicly available.

Sweet, it is Buster. Full of piss and bullshit as usual.

Actually, if it was Buster, he'd surely be raving about all the Malay prostitutes he got for little or no money. That shit is so creepy I can hardly keep myself from wishing he comes down with some jungle rot on his twig and berries.

I'm thinking it's an fake Buster with Buster like stupidity.

Anyone wishing Buster would come back soon to spice things up around here...that's some sad fuckin shit right there.

Anonymous said...

"Anyone wishing Buster would come back soon to spice things up around here...that's some sad fuckin shit right there."

Yeah, well buster's shit does stink, no doubt about that. And I agree 'bout the jungle rot on his tiny twig.

But without him, we just have the three stooges (hbm, BP, dunce) spewing their national liberal Daily Kos, and Messiah Obama bull shit.

That get's old, but have you noticed they kinda shut up recently, since Obama has fallen on his face of late? What with the Obamacare meltdown, and this Van Jones reject having to bail out of Airforce One without a parachute, et al.

But then almost everything about this blog is "some sad shit."

Turning to the local sad shit, how about that Sisters RE, eh?

Duncan McGeary said...

Who's Van Jones?

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

Here dunc here it is Van Jones Resigns As White House Advisor
Van Jones took a bullet for his boss.

After more than a week of withering criticism for past comments, Jones has resigned as an advisor to the White House on green jobs.

The White House announced the news in the early hours of Sunday morning. In a statement, Nancy Sutley, Chair of the White House Council on Environmental Quality, thanked Jones "for his valuable contributions to the Council on Environmental Quality. Over the last six months he has been a strong voice for creating 21st century jobs that improve energy efficiency and utilize renewable resources. We appreciate his hard work and wish him the best moving forward."

But Jones had turned into a political liability for President Obama after statements he made prior to joining the White House came to light. Last week Jones apologized for a six-year-old petition he signed, alleging government complicity in the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. He also issued an apology for recorded comments from a February public meeting where Jones referred to Republicans as "a**holes" for not supporting administration efforts.

On Saturday, Jones came under more fire after Verum Serum posted an excerpt for an anti-war CD that Jones appeared in which also featured Mumia Abu-Jamal, who was convicted of shooting to death a Philadelphia police officer in 1981. But the case has turned into an international cause celebre with critics arguing that Jamal's death row sentence should be overturned.

Whether that was the proverbial straw remains unclear but as conservative criticism ratcheted up, the White House did not go out of its way to defend Jones. On Friday, press secretary Robert Gibbs responded to questions by declaring that Jones "continues to work for the administration." He referred all other questions about Jones to the environmental council.

In a statement, Jones, who had worked at the White House as special adviser for green jobs since March, acknowledged that he had become a lightning rod for criticism. With the administration's hands full trying to push through controversial legislation on health care and energy, Jones said that opponents of reform had decided to launch "a vicious smear campaign" against him.

"They are using lies and distortions to distract and divide," he said. "I have been inundated with calls -- from across the political spectrum -- urging me to 'stay and fight.' But I came here to fight for others, not for myself. I cannot in good conscience ask my colleagues to expend precious time and energy defending or explaining my past. We need all hands on deck, fighting for the future."

One down a bazillion more czars to go.

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#2 09-06-2009, 06:19 AM
Lotus Blossom

Anonymous said...

hibiscus bulimic melonhead

you really are stupid and don't let anyone tell you you're not...

really? bet i am in better shape than you and stupid? ummm? I can ride this thing out can you?

rotorman said...

Come out from behind the counter once in a while. There is a world beyond Pegasus

Bewert said...

The Next Securitization Bubble:

Wall Street Pursues Profit in Bundles of Life Insurance

After the mortgage business imploded last year, Wall Street investment banks began searching for another big idea to make money. They think they may have found one.

The bankers plan to buy “life settlements,” life insurance policies that ill and elderly people sell for cash — $400,000 for a $1 million policy, say, depending on the life expectancy of the insured person. Then they plan to “securitize” these policies, in Wall Street jargon, by packaging hundreds or thousands together into bonds. They will then resell those bonds to investors, like big pension funds, who will receive the payouts when people with the insurance die.

The earlier the policyholder dies, the bigger the return — though if people live longer than expected, investors could get poor returns or even lose money.

Either way, Wall Street would profit by pocketing sizable fees for creating the bonds, reselling them and subsequently trading them. But some who have studied life settlements warn that insurers might have to raise premiums in the short term if they end up having to pay out more death claims than they had anticipated.

The idea is still in the planning stages. But already “our phones have been ringing off the hook with inquiries,” says Kathleen Tillwitz, a senior vice president at DBRS, which gives risk ratings to investments and is reviewing nine proposals for life-insurance securitizations from private investors and financial firms, including Credit Suisse.

“We’re hoping to get a herd stampeding after the first offering,” said one investment banker not authorized to speak to the news media.

The rest is here:


That C&D is damning.

1. The Bank shall have and retain qualified management.

Bewert said...

Dunc, Van Jones founded ColorofChange, which has been quite successful in its efforts to get advtertisers to quit Glenn Beck's show after Beck called Obama a racist. Beck went after him hard, and won the battle.

Good coverage of the battle here:

Duncan McGeary said...

I repeat.

Who's Van Jones?

Anonymous said...

Showed ya brother take it or leave it . life sucks me oh yeh iam one of the natives more ways than none. and even that does not matter hey dunc look up black swan taleb that guy cannot sleep at night . He is saying what iam saying not that we are going to repeat the 1930's but the 1780's

Anonymous said...

Duncan McGeary repeats:

"Who's Van Jones?"

Anon repeats:

"One down a bazillion more czars to go."

HAhahaha....ummm, sorry.
The first of many czars thrown under the Obamabus...

Anonymous said...

Coach Chip Kelly showed class and compassion on BadBoy Blount by benching him, but not totally throwing him under the UofO bus.

President Obama, not so much.

Anonymous said...

Dunc: Who's Van Jones?
Anon: Obama's czar.
Dunc: What's a czar?

“Others have pointed out that having offices called ‘czars’ is an odd naming choice for a democracy. But czars weren’t just authoritarians. They were ultimately authoritarians who left their country far poorer than their more democratic counterparts, lost a world war, and of course paved the way for an even worse system of government. The label ‘czar’ thus doesn’t historically connect to a model of strongman effectiveness — it connects to a model of strongman failure.”

Anonymous said...

"Anyone wishing Buster would come back soon..."

[is bored to death of bores like you].

Anonymous said...

I thought buster and pussy both had Aids and were dying, why are they still here?

Anonymous said...

According to MDU's latest 14A proxy statement Moss owns 35,910 shares of MDU and at the going rate of $19.15 that equals $687k.

When you make shit up it's better to do so with info that isn't publicly available.


Not a bad haul, her CACB is worth a big ZERO, ... and she walks with 1/2 Million cool cash for services rendered.

Her current proxy is based on the fact that she has sold lots of stock over the years, for cash.

Still the fact is this money is City of Bend taxpayer money as most of the MOSS-YEARS ( 1998-2008 ) construction ( over $400M ) was done in the name of MDU&MOSS&CO.

Oh, but its ok, cuz homer&lava say she's an idiot.

Anonymous said...

Bend is in the top ten in the country for unemployment and homelessness.
While the weather is warm,people can muddle through(live in their car, don't use heat in the house.)
But come Nov., when the snow flies, the homeless will leave Bend in droves, and people who were "just making it", will be hit by the tsunami of job losses, credit card debt, and mortgages that they can not afford.
Small businesses here will fall like dominos.
Time to really take stock. Do you still want to stay here?

tim said...

Duncan, there's no reason for you to know who Van Jones is unless you're interested in Obama's trials and tribulations. It's inside-the-beltway stuff. Obama clearly has shown no interest in protecting his people when they are caught having expressed nutty ideas in the past. I don't really blame him. As long as the crazy doesn't rub off on Obama, he seems to do fine.

Anonymous said...

really? bet i am in better shape than you and stupid? ummm? I can ride this thing out can you?

awww, who's puffin out their chest.

Like I said, don't let anyone tell you differently...

and I am doing well, thanks for you concern!

Anonymous said...

Time to really take stock. Do you still want to stay here?

I think we've already had a huge number of people leave....and winter is gonna be a tough deal for anyone trying to scrap it out.

The lull between summer tourism and winter tourism starts today. This is always a tough time for any business that relies on tourist dollars. Look for RE sales to drop from the highs of spring and summer.

Some people are able to ride it out. Personally, like my puffy chested friend above...I ain't going nowhere. Shoot, hunting season is here and ski season is just around the corner.

Duncan McGeary said...

Are we there yet?

When are we going to get there?

You said we'd be there by now?

We'll never make it!

Are we there yet?

Anonymous said...

Coming to a school near you-
They look human-
They act human-
But they are NOT human-
They are robots-
blindly following their leader-
No questions asked-


release date 9/8/09-
In 3D and surround sound.

LavaBear said...

>>>Oh, but its ok, cuz homer&lava say she's an idiot.

Ummm...I don't think I called Moss an idiot, I thought I was calling the poster an idiot for making shit up.

Once upon a time not that long ago Moss was counting her net worth in the 10's of millions. Now it's in the 1/2 millions...big change. Plus she is about to be out of a job when Sheila gets up in her shit. I doubt MDU is going to ask her back on the board when her appointment expires in 2010. Unless she completely diversified all of her holdings over the years she may just end up broke. Or at least needing to go find a frickin job.

hbm said...

"Others have pointed out that having offices called ‘czars’ is an odd naming choice for a democracy."

Allow me to point out that the "czar" title has been pinned on these people by the media; it is not their official title. For example, Ron Bloom's title is counselor to the secretary of the treasury and chairman of the Presidential Task Force on the Auto Industry, not "auto czar."

"Czar" is common journalistic shorthand for somebody in a top position, because it's a lot less cumbersome to write "auto czar" than "counselor to the secretary of the treasury and chairman of the Presidential Task Force on the Auto Industry." Only now have Glenn Beck and the other professional right-wing liars decided to make something sinister out of it.

Just as an aside, isn't it odd for a "communist" president to appoint so many "czars"? Wouldn't he call them "commissars"?

Anonymous said...

Plus she is about to be out of a job when Sheila gets up in her shit.


I know MOSS and she is NO sheila.

( sheila is aussie for woman )

Anonymous said...

H Bowel Movement is a 'czar' at the SORE? WTF?

Conspiracy in Bend?

hbm said...

"H Bowel Movement is a 'czar' at the SORE? WTF?"

Just a serf. I don't know why some people on this blog persist in the peculiar notion that I'm some big honcho at the Source. I hardly ever even go into the office.

hbm said...

"I'll make this a short one, since it's the last weekend of Summer..."

I hate this bullshit of declaring summer "officially over" after the first weekend of September. Maybe if you're a kid and have to go back to school it is, but not for everybody else. The last weekend of summer ends on Sunday, Sept. 20, which is the last weekend before the autumnal equinox on Sept. 22. And then (if we're lucky) we'll have Indian summer.

Our goddamn summers are short enough here without trying to chop two more weeks off of 'em.

Anonymous said...

well here it is non movement of drama and you all seem to thrive on that . this didbit of advice tighten your belts don't be a big baby and buckel down the dollar index is goin down. what that means is the purchasing power of the dollar is going down.not inflation but what your dollars can buy you the gov is goin to crash the dollar to get out of their debt.

Anonymous said...

"gov is goin to crash the dollar to get out of their debt"

If you believe this, the logical thing to do is spend all your cash right NOW, while your dollars are strong. Stock up for the future.

Is this what you're suggesting?

LavaBear said...

>>>If you believe this, the logical thing to do is spend all your cash right NOW, while your dollars are strong. Stock up for the future.

My biggest issue/problem is my largest potential $ holdings are my future income. Unless we get the fuck outta the USofA then what are your options? Odds are I'm going to be paid in USD.

Anonymous said...

A hunting we will go, a hunting we will go, high ho the merrier, a hunting we will go.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Thar she blows boyz!

$129K for 3bd, 2ba!


Anonymous said...

If you buy 10 houses like this, at $129K, and rent them out, when the market comes back in 3 years, prices will double, and you can walk away with $1,290,000.!!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

when the market comes back in 3 years, prices will double...


Prices are so low, they can't go anywhere but UP!

PopGoesBend said...

There will be no doubling. Those places are shitholes in an undesirable part of town. I doubt they will be worth $129k in three years unless we have massive inflation.

Get real.

Anonymous said...

What makes this part of town
Thousands of people live in that area.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

What makes this part of town

One thing: That neighborhood, those homes.

That's a foreclosure den, where weeds grow to the roof. Shitty quality homes.

Dude, they are $129K for a reason.

STD's built in Bend over the past 5 years had NO PURPOSE but to make money as FLIPPER FODDER. That's all that Forum Meadows is. A shithole of cracker-ass dumps built soley so that Pollock could screw people in liar loans.

PopGoesBend said...

Rows of poorly designed and built garage front homes with few large trees in neighborhoods that have no walking access to parks or schools. These homes were not built with the idea of a nice place to live, which is ONE of the many reasons they did not sell. People are living out there because it is cheap, not because it is a desirable place to live.

PopGoesBend said...

I was wrong about the park. There seems to be one a few blocks away - but I stand by the rest of my comments.

Anonymous said...

Thanks. I am not a construction expert, and with new paint and carpet, these places all look the same.
I appreciate your help.

hbm said...

"$129K for 3bd, 2ba!"

At 1,113 square feet (half of which appears to be the garage) those bds must be so small you can't even turn around in them and the bas must be barely big enough to hold a roll of toilet paper.

St Paddy said...

Square footage does not include the garage. They are still POS's I actually see those homes dropping much lower because eventually they will need function as rentals that cash flow. Rent on those homes will need to be in the mid to high $500's per month, placing present value in the $50,000 to $60,000 range.

Anonymous said...

"Rent on those homes will need to be in the mid to high $500's per month, placing present value in the $50,000 to $60,000 range."

No truer words ever spoken.

Anonymous said...

My biggest issue/problem is my largest potential $ holdings are my future income. Unless we get the fuck outta the USofA then what are your options? Odds are I'm going to be paid in USD And what if the usdollar aint worth shit? It's comin let me put it to you this way our country has created money or wealth out of thin air fiat mind you. This is the real grabber your currency is only worth what the people who have faith in it? and one other point according to our constitution we are only to trade in gold or silver physical at that in this climate.I think a lot of you folks who have wealth at this point should go to kitco .com join the blog and listen to what people in our country are saying. Because you have worked hard all of your lives and to put it bluntly save your wealth in whatever means possible. quickly

Anonymous said...

The Dollar Collapses
Carl Gutierrez, 09.08.09, 04:05 PM EDT
Commodities, stocks and foreign currencies all rise as investors sell dollars.

The U.S. dollar reached its lowest point against the euro this year due to a myriad of forces including rising global stocks and commodities prices, low interest rates, and investors diversifying out of Treasury debt and into other assets including U.S. stocks with the Dow Jones industrial average approaching 9500 in late afternoon trading.

Stocks in Asia and Europe saw big gains, and gold topped $1,000 an ounce. (See "Stocks, Commodities Rally After Long Weekend.") Oil also gained 4.9%, or $3.31, to $71.33, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, due in part to Goldman Sachs affirming its year-long outlook. By midday trading one euro traded for $1.45, meanwhile the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell to its lowest level since September of 2008.

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"It isn't as if the fundamentals are better in Europe," said Jessica Hoversen, a foreign exchange and fixed income futures analyst at MF Global. "There are other factors outside of economic growth taking hold in the market."

Japan's special drawing rights holdings hit a record $18.5 billion, from $3 billion in July. SDRs are the currency of the International Monetary Fund and other international institutions. It's a basket of currencies composed of the dollar, euro, sterling and yen in a fixed weighting determined by the IMF and World Bank every five years.

One of the reasons cited for the rise is an increased in commitment in overseas aid, but Hoversen noted that to a certain degree it speaks to the general demand for the dollar, and that scares the market. "It doesn't necessarily mean diversification away from the dollar, but there is a heightened sensitivity about the topic," Hoversen said.

Currency investors have been obsessed with the prospect of central banks diversifying out of the dollar. (See "Spotlight On The Dollar.") The fixation has been fueled by meetings under the G20/G8 framework, as well as candid comments from some of the largest reserve managers, namely Russia and China. The prospects of a massive diversification are low though, at least in the short-term, because most of the alternatives, including using SDRs as a global reverse currency are unrealistic.

tim said...

"Maybe if you're a kid and have to go back to school it is, but not for everybody else."

Not "everybody else." Teachers and parents, too. There is much rejoicing from parents this week.

tim said...

"when the market comes back in 3 years, prices will double"

OK. Belly laugh. Can't breath. Thanks, man, that's a good one.

Bewert said...

UN Says New Currency Is Needed to Fix Broken ‘Confidence Game’

By Jonathan Tirone

Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar’s role in international trade should be reduced by establishing a new currency to protect emerging markets from the “confidence game” of financial speculation, the United Nations said.

UN countries should agree on the creation of a global reserve bank to issue the currency and to monitor the national exchange rates of its members, the Geneva-based UN Conference on Trade and Development said today in a report.

China, India, Brazil and Russia this year called for a replacement to the dollar as the main reserve currency after the financial crisis sparked by the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market led to the worst global recession since World War II. China, the world’s largest holder of dollar reserves, said a supranational currency such as the International Monetary Fund’s special drawing rights, or SDRs, may add stability.

“There’s a much better chance of achieving a stable pattern of exchange rates in a multilaterally-agreed framework for exchange-rate management,” Heiner Flassbeck, co-author of the report and a UNCTAD director, said in an interview from Geneva. “An initiative equivalent to Bretton Woods or the European Monetary System is needed.”

The 1944 Bretton Woods agreement created the modern global economic system and institutions including the IMF and World Bank.

Enhanced SDRs

While it would be desirable to strengthen SDRs, a unit of account based on a basket of currencies, it wouldn’t be enough to aid emerging markets most in need of liquidity, said Flassbeck, a former German deputy finance minister who worked in 1997-1998 with then U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers to contain the Asian financial crisis.

Emerging-market countries are underrepresented at the IMF, hindering the effectiveness of enhanced SDR allocations, the UN said. An organization should be created to manage real exchange rates between countries measured by purchasing power and adjusted to inflation differentials and development levels, it said.

“The most important lesson of the global crisis is that financial markets don’t get prices right,” Flassbeck said. “Governments are being tempted by the resulting confidence game catering to financial-market participants who have shown they’re inept at assessing risk.”

The 45-year-old UN group, run by former World Trade Organization chief Supachai Panitchpakdi, “promotes integration of developing countries in the world economy,” according to its Web site. Emerging-market nations should consider restricting capital mobility until a new system is in place, the group said.

The world body began issuing warnings in 2006 about financial imbalances leading to a global recession.

The UN Trade and Development report is being held for release via print media until 6 p.m. London time.

To contact the reporters on this story: Jonathan Tirone in Vienna at
Last Updated: September 7, 2009 09:52 EDT

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Piece & interview of Super Rich Old Buzzard, Joe Weston of Portland:

Developer Joe Weston says times are tough, but will get better
by Ryan Frank, The Oregonian

Developer Joe Weston is old Portland. In a charming way.

At 71, Weston has built a real estate empire that ranks him among the city's wealthiest men. But he doesn't drive a Mercedes. He doesn't live on an estate. He doesn't do pinstripes.

No, Weston drives a yellow VW bug with a smiley face plastered on the side. He rents an 1,800-square-foot apartment just off Northwest 23rd Avenue, his home for the last 16 years. And he shows up to public meetings wearing ties festooned with the American flag and a bald eagle without a hint of irony lathered on by comedian Stephen Colbert.

You wouldn't guess from meeting Weston that he's a one man economic bellwether for the Portland region. You can learn more about the economy in five questions with Weston than you can in an hour with most economists.

Weston's empire provides a window into the wealthy and the working class. He employs about 175 in his real estate and storage businesses. He is the chief investor behind the Pearl District's leading condo builder, and he owns low-rent apartments across east Portland.

Like every executive in town, Weston's business has taken a hit. The vacancy rate in his apartments, typically less than 2 percent, has ballooned to 8 percent. But Weston remains upbeat in his blunt but witty way.

On what he's buying these days: "The only thing we're buying now is buildings that need some work on them and will provide employment for our employees. We haven't laid anybody off and we're not going to lay anybody off. We're bringing some jobs back in house that we used to vendor out to keep our employee base going."

On what title he uses. President? CEO? "Proprietor."

On why he stays in a 1950s era apartment: "I'm comfortable there. I don't change very often. I keep the same vendors. Have long term employees. I'm kind of a stick in the mud."

When asked his age: "I shouldn't be working this hard. I should be retired."

On when he plans to deed most of his property to his charity, the Joseph E. Weston Public Foundation: "They pretty well get it all when I become worm food."

Weston talked with The Oregonian about how he sleeps at night when his latest condo tower isn't selling well and why the apartment market is tanking. His answers have been edited for clarity.


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Q: You sold just a handful of units in your new Pearl District condo tower, the Encore. How long can you keep up with the hundreds of thousands of dollars in monthly costs for interest, taxes and home owners' dues.

A: We'll hold on for whatever length need be until sales are made. Stay the course. I save my money. It's just that simple. We're a very
conservative company. We've been doing it through savings and cash flow from the company.

Q: You've had eyes in the past on building three more condo towers when the market returns. What evidence will tell you that it's time to build a new condo tower again?

A: That there is a demand for new units. At that time, we'll start building. But before we can make the decision, we've got to determine two things. Number one, who else is going to come out of the ground. But more importantly, how many of the apartments or the condos converted to apartments are going to convert back to condos.

That's going to be very, very hard to predict. A lot of them will have to convert back because that's the only way they can get a financial return is to sell them as condos. They're not making it as apartments.

Q: That feeds into my next question. There's been a lot of talk about a glut of condos in Portland. But the city's skyline is now dotted with shiny new luxury apartment towers. How can a city like Portland support this huge supply of high-rise apartments?

A: That's a very, very good question because we are not a corporate town and we don't have a huge executive payroll. I don't know how the people currently are paying $2,400 to $6,500 a month for these units. It's a mystery to me. You're looking at a corporate payroll for that of $175,000 a year or more. We just don't have that many jobs in Portland, Oregon, that pay that.

Q: You own storage units, office buildings and lower-rent apartment complexes. What has the recession done to each of those businesses?

A: On the storage, our occupancy has dropped. Many people find that they can save money by not having to rent a unit. They find they haven't been to their unit for two to three years so they come to the conclusion that they don't really need the unit because they can't even remember what's in it.

Definitely the vacancy is higher in self-storage. I think we're running probably about 78 percent where typically we'd run 88 to 90 percent.

In office, the vacancy in the suburbs is higher. Downtown is remaining pretty much stable. We have a lot of companies -- architects, engineers, real estate brokers, appraisers they're long gone. Anything tied to the construction industry like Trinity Carpet. You take some of the larger home builders that occupy full floors, they've either shrunk down considerably or their history.

In apartments, our vacancy is up. There's no question about that. I think that's largely because of all these condominiums that are going to apartments. Two and three people. they will double up in them and rent them. And then I think loss of employment has caused people to move back home or move elsewhere.

The key is, if you're a parent, you sell the family home when the last child moves out and by a condominium from us. That's not happening. They keep staying at home. Now, all the kids have come back.

You haven't moved back have you?

(Answer: Not yet.)

Q:You drive a yellow VW bug with a smiley face on it. Given the state of the economy, have you ever thought about turning that smile into a frown?

A: No. No. You still gotta keep up your smile. We'll get through this. It's tough, but we'll survive. The question is, at what point have we hit bottom? Once we hit bottom, then we can look up and start climbing out.

But I don't know if we've hit bottom yet. I feel sorry for the developers that own a lot of developable land and they're trying to service a bank debt because there's just no way they can do it. It's eating them alive.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I like that guy. Down-home and pretty damn normal.

Sounds just loaded with cash too.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Rent on those homes will need to be in the mid to high $500's per month

I'm not sure about that.

Those homes are in such a state of deferred maint, that it'll cost all of $600-750/mo just to make them legal rentals. Lots of those homes are functionally defective (like most STD's), and have flooding garages, and shit.

Not only will monthly maint be a bitch, but they'll need $30-40K just to meet a bare-bones inspection.

The REAL COST on those shitholes is closer to $170K.

Bewert said...

Dunc, a column from the guy who "got rid" of Van Jones:

Phil Kerpen


- September 06, 2009
How Van Jones Happened and What We Need to Do Next

Now that Jones has resigned, we need to follow through with two critical policy victories. First, stop cap-and-trade, which could send these groups trillions, and second repeal the unspent portion of the stimulus bill, which stands to give them billions.

The Van Jones affair could be an important turning point in the Obama administration if we use it as a window to understand the structure of the left and to stop the huge power-grab now taking place in the name of green jobs. It's also one of the most significant things I've ever had the honor of being involved in. Here's how, from my perspective, it happened and what it means.

I was an unlikely Van Jones expert. It started July 9, when "FOX & Friends" asked me if I'd come on the show the morning of July 10 to explain what "green jobs" are. It meant an early morning the next day, but I was glad to do it, because exposing the green jobs scam is critical to fight cap-and-trade, my top legislative priority for the year. The producer asked me if I knew anything about green jobs "czar" Van Jones. I didn't but said I would find out.

I e-mailed a friend who follows the green groups and he said he thought Jones was socialist. -- I doubt he had any idea how deep it went. A couple Web searches later, I couldn't believe what I found in an article from the alternative San Francisco newspaper the East Bay Express. The man was a self-professed communist, with ties to ACORN and a radical Maoist group called STORM. His real name was Anthony, with "Van" made up in college because he thought everyone cool has a one-syllable name.

There was so much material there, but what really stood out is what I used the next day on F&F: the "green jobs" concept was merely a new face on the old ideology of central economic planning and control, an alternative and a threat to free market capitalism.

(cont. below)

Bewert said...

As soon as I got back to the office, I e-mailed the East Bay Express article to one of Glenn Beck's producer, saying: "Please share with Glenn this article about green jobs czar Van Jones, a self-described communist who was radicalized in jail. Confirms "watermelon" hypothesis." (I was referring to an explanation we had offered on his show of the cap-and-trade bill as a "watermelon," green on the outside but Communist red to the core.)

The rest is history. I spent the next two weeks researching everything I could find about Jones and the Apollo Alliance (much of which is still to be published, including a forthcoming paper from the Capital Research Center next month), the national umbrella organization for coordinating between the environmentalists, the labor unions, and the social justice street organizers that Jones has served as a board member and a primary national spokesman for. Beck had me on his show to explain Apollo on July 28, and several more times thereafter, while he began pounding away.

Two days later, the stakes got higher when another Jones-founded organization, Color of Change, called for a boycott of the Beck show. Amazingly, many in the mainstream media would report the fiction that Beck's coverage of Jones was retaliation for the boycott, even though coverage of Jones started first. Given the chronology, if there is any connection we should consider whether the boycott was retaliation for the coverage.

The mainstream media completely ignored the controversy, but the Internet kicked into high gear, with so many people doing great work that it was hard to keep track of. This week, when Gateway Pundit the broke story that Van Jones actually blamed George Bush for the 9/11 terrorist attacks, some of the mainstream media (but only some) finally began paying attention. Rep. Mike Pence stepped up and called for his resignation. And early today Jones made his exit.

Now Van Jones has left the administration, but we can't afford to stop thinking about him and what he represents. Clearly, he was far less cautious than many of the left-wing radical currently influencing the direction of policy in this country. Less cautious but not ideologically distinct.

The agenda laid out in Van Jones's book, "The Green Collar Economy," which we now know is an attempt to achieve radical ends, is squarely within the mainstream of the political left and the Democratic Party. He urged adoption of a carbon cap-and-trade program, renewable electricity mandates-- including Al Gore's outlandish and impossible goal of eliminating fossil fuel use by 2018, large taxpayer-funded green jobs programs, a so-called smart grid for electricity, more mass-transit subsidies, higher fuel efficiency standards for automobiles, federal funding for organic farms, a ban on new coal plants, expanded ethanol mandates, and even a spirited, multiple page pitch for a cash-for-clunkers program--he called it "Hoopties for Hybrids."

(cont. below)

Bewert said...

Even if Apollo is properly tainted by the Van Jones scandal, it's only the tip of the iceberg, as this chart shows. In fact most of the action has already moved to the Center for American Progress, the hyper-politicized think tank that's advancing most of the left's agenda, especially the push for green jobs and all of the policies from Van Jones's book.

As I explained previously on the FOX Forum, the push for "green jobs" has everything to do with funding the far-left political activities that Van Jones so adamantly believed in. Green jobs are not economic jobs but political jobs, designed to funnel vast sums of taxpayer money to left-wing labor unions, environmental groups, and social justice community organizers.

Now that Jones has resigned, we need to follow through with two critical policy victories. First, stop cap-and-trade, which could send these green groups trillions, and second repeal the unspent portion of the stimulus bill, which stands to give them billions. The Van Jones affair is, as President Obama likes to say, a "teachable moment," and we need to put not just him but the whole corrupt "green jobs" concept outside the bounds of the political mainstream.

Mr. Kerpen is director of policy for Americans for Prosperity. He can be contacted through Phil Follow him on Twitter and Facebook. His free two-minute Podcast is available daily.


Americans For Prosperity also brought us the teabaggers and thetown hall health care protestors.

It's funded by the Koch family, ExxonMobil and other oil money interests:

The AFP is the third largest recipient of funding from the Koch Family Foundations, behind the Cato Institute and the George Mason University Foundation. Before 2003, when the AFP was still named the Citizens for a Sound Economy Foundation, it received $18,460,912 in funding. 84% of that funding came from the Koch Family Foundations ($12,906,712) and the Scaife Family Foundations ($2,510,000). Koch Family Foundations is funded by Koch Industries. According to Forbes, Koch Industries is the second largest privately-held company, and the largest privately owned energy company, in the United States. Koch industries has made its money in the oil business, primarily oil refining. Presently, it holds stakes in pipelines, refineries, fertilizer, forest products, and chemical technology. Americans for Prosperity is also connected to oil giant ExxonMobil. According to ExxonSecrets, between the years 1998-2001, Citizens for A Sound Economy and Citizens for a Sound Economy Foundation received $380,250 from ExxonMobil.


And Fox News, purveyors of truth, always watching out for Americans.

Anonymous said...

Many of the businesses in Bend are small businesses (under 25 employees).
Under the Obama plan, you will be required to pay for heath insurance for all part and full time employees, at a cost of $5,000 to $10,000. per employee.
Can we please hear from some small business owners, on what impact this will have on you?

Anonymous said...

All these little political maneuverings probably aren't that important in the big picture. It's just entertainment for those who watch TV.

The elephant in the room is energy security and climate change. The Obama administration has good intentions, but doesn't have the will or ability to do enough. What is needed is a hefty carbon tax, but that is a political impossibility, and in any case, what is the point if the Chinese release a new coal-fired power plant every 2 weeks. Even if the U.S. tries to lead, the rest of the world is going to burn all its coal and pump the atmosphere full of CO2. It's likely that the climate 50 years from now, and the sea level, is likely to be very different than it is now. In this case I agree with some of the folks on the folks on this blog that -- Republican or Democrat, it doesn't really matter.

Anonymous said...

Some questions about that Van Jones guy:

- did he really change his first name to Van? Why not Bruce or Duncan, since those are so much better names?

- did he really sign on to the 'truther' manifesto? does he really believe that 9-11 was an inside job? was W flying the plane, or was that one of those inflatable W-dolls?

- is he really a communist? why doesn't he admit it, since it is all the vogue in today's administration, or is that socialist? what's the difference?

- why did he resign? I did not read anything about him in my normal fishwrap scannings, and then, bam! out of the blue he bailed on Obama?

- as Dunc asks, who is this guy?

Anonymous said...

Under the Obama plan, you will be required to pay for heath insurance for all part and full time employees, at a cost of $5,000 to $10,000. per employee.

Documentation please.

Bewert said...

The Bend City Council will hold three special work sessions.

The first meeting is scheduled for Thursday, September 10, 2009 at noon in the Board Room at Bend City Hall, 710 NW Wall. The purpose of this meeting is to discuss progress toward Council goals.

The second meeting is scheduled for Friday, October 2, 2009 at 8 AM, location TBA (location will be posted on City website). The purpose of this meeting is to discuss financial strategies.

The third meeting is scheduled for Monday, October 12, 2009 at 7 PM at Jewell School, 20550 Murphy Road. The purpose of this meeting is an “Open Line with the Council” hosted by Southeast Bend Neighborhood Association.

These meetings are open to the public.

For additional information, please contact:
Patricia Stell
City Recorder
City of Bend

Bewert said...

Some facts about HR 3200, the "most progressive" bill on the table:



31. I'm a business owner ­ what will I have to do for my employees?

The House health care reform bill requires employers to either offer coverage to their employees or pay a payroll tax. If an employer decides to ofer coverage for their full- time employees, then the employer must make a contribution of 72.5 percent of the premium for individual coverage and 65 percent of the premium for family coverage. If an employer has part time employees, this amount will be reduced relative to the hours those employees work. If an employer decides not to offer coverage, then the employer pays a payroll tax of 8 percent of the employer`s payroll.

32. I'm a small business owner ­ what will I have to do for my employees?

The House bill will help you immensely. Small businesses will benefit from the insurance reforms that prohibit insurance companies from discriminating against small businesses on the basis of the health of their employees, and the Exchange will give small businesses access to coverage at rates similar to what large employers enjoy. Most small businesses will see a decline in the premiums as administrative costs go down and you no longer have to worry what happens to your premiums as employees get older, have babies or get sick. Small businesses are also eligible for a tax credit to help you afford premiums.

The House health reform bill requires employers to offer coverage or pay a penalty, but special rules apply for small businesses. Small businesses with low average payroll and low numbers of employees will be eligible for a tax credit to help them afford health insurance. These are businesses who are least able to offer coverage to their employees. Many small businesses will be exempt from any requirement to offer coverage or pay a penalty. In HR 3200, if a small business annual payroll is $250,000 or less, then there is no penalty if the employer decides not to offer coverage. However, even these firms could be eligible for the tax credit if they decide they want to offer coverage. In 2008, 4.7 million firms have payroll of $250,000 or less--this is 76 percent of all firms. For firms above this payroll rate, but not above $400,000, the penalty is phased-in up to 8 percent. 86 percent of all firms would pay less than 8 percent if they do not offer coverage.

Bewert said...


33. I'm an employer with part-time employees. Do I have to provide health insurance for them?

You have the option of providing part-time employees with health coverage by contributing a share of the expense, or contributing to the Exchange in order for part-time employees to get coverage there. Your contribution wouldn`t be as much as for a full-time employee, but would be relative to how many hours your part-time employee works. If you don`t offer coverage, you would have to pay the penalty, up to 8 percent of your total part-time employee payroll.

34. Does the health surcharge hurt small businesses?

Small businesses benefit immensely from HR 3200 by eliminating the ability of insurance companies to charge premiums based on the health status of the employer`s workers. This key reform makes health insurance costs more affordable and predictable for small businesses. Using the broadest definition of a small business owner (i.e., any individual with as little as $1 of small business income), the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation has estimated that only 4.1% of all small business owners would be affected by the health care surcharge. The remaining 95.9% of small business owners would be completely unaffected by the health care surcharge but would benefit from the insurance market reforms in the bill. When the Joint Committee on Taxation looked closer at these 4.1% of small business owners, half of these individuals earned less than one-third of their\income from small businesses.

35. I'm an early retiree ­ what will this bill do to make health care affordable to me? Will my employer continue to provide coverage?

There is a reinsurance proposal that will reduce costs for insurance for retirees. Employers will have the same incentives that they do today to offer retiree coverage, but unlike today there will be a good option available if your employer doesn`t continue coverage. If you don`t have coverage through an employer, you will be able to purchase comprehensive insurance at reasonable premium rates in the exchange.

Bewert said...

So, if your payroll is less than $250,000, you are not required to pay anything, and if you want to offer coverage you can get tax credits to help you do so.

Your employees will be able to get coverage through the exchange, which would include a public option like Medicare.

I imagine that covers 99% of Bend small business, as $250K would let you have up to a dozen $10/hour full-time employees.

$250K to $400K payroll, you have to provide coverage or pay a sliding scale of up to 8% of payroll, or a maximum of $32,000 if you have 20 $10/hour full-time employees.

And you can get tax credits to help pay for your employees coverage.


Yes, China's coal-fired power plants are a huge issue. And one we won't have much of an impact on.

Just as China's pile of US currency, T-bills, etc. is a huge issue we don't have much control over.

hbm said...

Hey look, Buster made the news:

Anonymous said...

hbm, why you want to hate on Buster? It's not like he's ever been mean to you or anything.

tim said...

Paglia says get out of Afghanistan, but first gives blistering critiques of our two horrible parties. Pelosi and Gingrich get equal abuse.

Anonymous said...

OK buster, the last time you got back from one of your "trips" you couldn't shut up about your new girlfriend, and how all of us should move to Malaysia, blah, blah, blah.

Now you've purportedly been gone again and you have nothing to say. Probably this suits most folks fine. But I have a slight curiousity about what exactly you encountered. Do fill us in, old friend, unless, of course, you've got better things to do than "talk" to virtual strangers.

Anonymous said...

I'm thinking Buster had some kind of "David Carradine" experience, and he's still hyperventilating due to his close call.

hbm said...

"Hey look, Buster made the news:"

Funny thing, but that's EXACTLY what I picture Buster looking like ... if he was a real person. But he isn't -- I've become convinced he's a character somebody made up to irritate people.

BTW Homer, are you recycling titty pictures? Those two nicely tanned young ladies who want an hbm sandwich look familiar.

Anonymous said...

hbm: Those two nicely tanned young ladies who want an hbm sandwich look familiar.


Check your backyard.

Anonymous said...

What do you think about the congressman who yelled at Obama?



LavaBear said...

>>>What do you think about the congressman who yelled at Obama?

Has nothing to do with Right or Wrong. It was just stupid and made him look like an idiot. Who cares about who the President is or whether you agree or disagree...he is still the President. Not the time or place.

With that said I always stop surfing when I come across the British Parliamentary debates on C-SPAN. Now THAT is the right time and place. Love that shit.

Bewert said...

A blast from the recent past:

Court-appointed trustee seeks $30 million in damages from Umpqua Bank
Fri. June 26, 2009; Posted: 01:30 PM

Jun 24, 2009 (The Bulletin - McClatchy-Tribune Information Services via COMTEX) -- The court-appointed trustee in charge of liquidating the assets of Bend-based Summit 1031 Exchange filed a lawsuit Friday in Multnomah County Circuit Court seeking more than $30 million in damages from Umpqua Bank for allegedly aiding and abetting Summit in operating what the complaint called a Ponzi scheme.

Kevin Padrick, trustee of the Summit Accommodators Liquidating Trust, alleges in the complaint that Ray Davis, the president and CEO of Portland-based Umpqua Holdings Corp., the bank's parent company, along with Dave Edson, the company's commercial banking president, learned Summit was operating a Ponzi scheme in a series of personal meetings and telephone conversations with Summit's principals beginning in March 2007 but did not stop Summit from depositing its clients' money in Umpqua Bank.

The complaint alleges that even after learning of the Ponzi scheme, the bank solicited more business from Summit to earn more fee money, increase its market share of deposits and profit from interest on loans it made based on the increase in deposits. Summit filed for bankruptcy in December.

Steve Philpott, the bank's general counsel, said the bank will "vigorously" defend itself against the claim, that it has a "reputation for honesty and fair dealing" that it will uphold and that the claim against Davis and Edson is "outrageous." "To imply that Ray or Dave or anyone at Umpqua knowingly aided and abetted a Ponzi scheme is outrageous. I mean, it's nonsense," Philpott said. "And frankly, I don't know how you can attach a Ponzi scheme label to what Summit was doing." U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Randall Dunn also said Summit "arguably ran a Ponzi scheme" during a Summit bankruptcy hearing in Portland last month.

Philpott said Umpqua did not loan money to Summit or invest in Summit and only provided standard banking services to the company.

Padrick declined to comment on the case. Messages left for Padrick's attorney, David Aman of Portland-based Tonkon Torp LLP, were not returned.

The Summit Accommodators Liquidating Trust was established in May after Summit's liquidation plan was approved in bankruptcy court. Padrick, who was the Chapter 11 trustee in the case, was then named trustee of the liquidating trust.

Pursuant to his role as liquidating trustee, Padrick is attempting to return more than $40 million in asserted claims to the company's roughly 120 unsecured creditors. He's authorized to do that by, among other things, selling real estate throughout the Western United States and Mexico that was purchased by Summit's principals or related third parties through as many as 91 separate legal entities formed by the principals.

In a May 7 story in The Bulletin about Summit's bankruptcy, Jeanette Thomas, the attorney for the official committee of unsecured creditors, said Padrick also is authorized to seek damages.

Summit, which was incorporated as Summit Accommodators Inc. but did business as Summit 1031 Exchange, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after reporting on its Web site that it had a liquidity problem that left it short more than $14.2 million due its clients.

The Bankruptcy Court judge overseeing the case later approved motions by Padrick and the creditors committee to liquidate the company's assets.

Bankruptcy filings also say Summit is the subject of FBI and state investigations.

Throughout the complaint filed Friday, Padrick alleges Summit's principals embezzled money from Summit and operated a Ponzi scheme.

Bewert said...


Padrick alleges that as far back as 1995, Summit principals Mark Neuman and Brian Stevens began embezzling money from Summit by loaning the company's funds to a separate business entity they controlled named Inland Capital Corp.

The complaint alleges Inland then made "substantial" loans to Neuman and Stevens, and later to Lane Lyons and Tim Larkin, who became equal shareholders in the companies when they joined Summit in January 2006.

According to the complaint, the principals and related entities they formed benefitted personally from the loans from Summit. The complaint also says the embezzled money from Summit was primarily invested in real estate.

Due to the amount of money embezzled from Summit, according to the complaint, the company had insufficient funds to pay off its obligations to its clients, and "the only way that Summit was able to continue meeting its payment obligations was to bring in new clients -- in other words, the principals engaged in a classic Ponzi scheme." Summit, in its exchange contract, stated it would place its clients' money into deposit accounts at financial institutions and use those funds only to accomplish the contracted exchange, according to the complaint.

The complaint alleges Umpqua bank began in mid-2005 to "aggressively solicit" business from Summit, which had used Columbia River Bank as its primary bank. In late 2005 or early 2006, Summit and the principals switched their banking to Umpqua, according to the complaint.

The complaint then alleges Umpqua and Summit began discussions about "a potential business relationship beyond that of depositor-bank," and discussed a "strategic alliance of some kind." In early 2007, the discussions began to escalate, resulting in a series of face-to-face meetings and telephone conversations between the Summit principals and Davis and Edson, according to the complaint.

The complaint alleges that no later than March 2, 2007, Summit's principals "described in great detail all relevant aspects of their Ponzi scheme to Davis, Edson and other Umpqua officials" by providing them "a PowerPoint presentation and a memorandum describing their business model in detail, including the diversion of funds to Inland for the principals' personal benefit." The complaint also alleges Summit's "principals practically bragged that they had used the embezzled exchange funds to build up substantial net worth for themselves" but that they faced a serious liquidity problem because of the embezzlement and needed a loan or equity investment from Umpqua to cure the problem.

The complaint does not allege Umpqua loaned money to Summit but that Umpqua did make "substantial loans" to Summit's principals and their related entities between 2005 and 2008. The complaint does not specify how much.

The complaint argues that Umpqua knew of the principals' scheme as far back as 2005 due to detailed financial information provided to the bank by the principals and their related entities in order to secure loans from the bank and that "the financial information disclosed in detail how the principals had used money embezzled from Summit through Inland to their personal benefit." As the real estate market began to deteriorate in 2007 and 2008, Summit's liquidity problem worsened as the number of new clients dropped and the principals' real estate investments struggled, according to the complaint.

The complaint argues that the principals -- "with Umpqua's encouragement and substantial assistance" -- continued to cause Summit to contract with new clients during the market's decline.

Summit filed for bankruptcy on Dec. 19.

Bewert said...


In his claim for relief, Padrick argues Summit's principals breached their fiduciary duties to Summit by embezzling funds and that Umpqua "knew or had reason to know" that the principals' conduct was wrong and was done so "pursuant to a plan or agreement among the principals and Umpqua."

Padrick further argues Umpqua actively encouraged and substantially assisted the principals in their conduct, that Umpqua is liable in an amount exceeding $30 million and that Umpqua acted with "malice" and "a conscious indifference to the welfare of others."

Philpott, Umpqua's general counsel, said "the complaint is one side of the story, and in due course, we'll have the opportunity to file our answer and go through the typical civil litigation process, but Umpqua has a solid reputation for honesty and fair dealing and we're going to uphold that reputation."

Reached early Tuesday evening, Larkin, one of Summit's principals, said, "We disagree strongly with the allegations, and we look forward to defending ourselves as the process unfolds. In the meantime, we will continue to do what we can to provide the most positive outcome for the creditors."

Attempts to contact the other Summit principals or their attorneys for comment were unsuccessful.

tim said...

"What do you think about the congressman who yelled at Obama?"

About the same as the ones who boo'd Bush's state of the union. Hopped up on power like a bunch of Mike Tysons.

On the other hand, compared to Britain's screaming Parliament, even Cynthia McKinney seems only halfway to insane and obnoxious.

tim said...

And if someone told me that calls into his office were more high-fives than shout-downs, I would not be surprised. It's polarized politics all around.

Anonymous said...

Best description I've ever heard:

"The British House of Commons is like Congress with a two drink minimum."

hbm said...

"What do you think about the congressman who yelled at Obama? Right? Wrong?"

No. Stupid.

I donated a token $25 donation to his opponent today. I've read that more than $400,000 has come in since Wilson's idiotic performance.

I tried to check out Wilson's official congressional website and got a message that because of the volume of traffic it had been taken down. I doubt it was the overwhelming number of favorable comments that crashed it.

The same opponent, Joe Miller, a Marine combat veteran, nearly beat Wilson last time. One more House seat for the Democrats in 2011.

Anonymous said...

Love it I wish paul mcartney could sing a song that pertains to all the stupid people rather than the lonley people.

Anonymous said...

bravo these people are weak and simple minded just what the ones who really are in control want. The beatles had it right say you want a?

Anonymous said...

Saw on CNN that Wilson's office says calls are three-to-one in support. Of course that's what they'd say. Both he and his opponent will get money out of idiots to battle it out.

Anonymous said...

Obama has been in office 9 months.
Opinion please-

Doing a good job??

Bad Job??

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Officials plan to ask for $50M grant for rail facility

This is a fantastic way to spend $50 million, cuz the best way to travel between Redmond and Prineville is via RAILROAD.

Anonymous said...

"Obama has been in office 9 months.
Opinion please"

He's continuing the great tradition of spending more money than our children will be able to repay. Another in a long line of fucking awesome presidents.

Anonymous said...

"Obama has been in office 9 months.
Opinion please"

I see you're one of those who still believes the president runs the country.

Nice burro.

Anonymous said...

That Priney railroad thing is beyond dumb. WTF?

Anonymous said...

Public officials must stay up nights trying to figure out how to waste taxpayer money.
A railroad between two small towns, in a middle of a severe recession/ depression?

Sounds like a wise use of scarce taxpayer dollars.

Anonymous said...

I'd understand a railroad improvement between Redmond and Portland. But I can't make heads or tails out of this.

Duncan McGeary said...

You're kind of revealing you'all are newcomers.

The Prineville railroad has a long history of going it's own way.

"The City of Prineville Railroad is unique in that it is entirely owned by a municipality, the city of Prineville, Oregon. It is also the oldest
continuously operated municipal owned railroad in the United States. It was originally constructed in 1916 to connect to the jointly owned,
Union Pacific / Oregon Trunk Railroad mainline. Prior to that, Prineville was one of the largest cities in central Oregon, but neither the UP or
Oregon Trunk had any interest in building a line just to service that city. The larger railroads didn't think it was economicly feasable to build and
maintain a line there. However, the city fathers of Prineville felt the town would die if it didn't get railroad service. The town finally took matters
into their own hands and incorporated the Prineville and Eastern Railway in 1911. With city funds, the line was built around 1916 to 1917 and
started hauling freight and passengers in 1918."

More on the city website.

hbm said...

"Saw on CNN that Wilson's office says calls are three-to-one in support."

They won't take your call if you're not from SC.

hbm said...

Dunc: But the Prineville RR serves no real practical purpose today. They've tried to make it pay for itself with that dinner theater thing, but that never quite worked out. I can't see pissing away another $50 million on it just for the sake of nostalgia, or local pride, or whatever.

tim said...

"They won't take your call if you're not from SC."

Will they take your vote if you're not from SC?

Duncan McGeary said...

I don't disagree. Just trying to explain why they would even consider such a thing....

Anonymous said...

This railroad to no where is a perfect example of government waste.
$50,0000,0000. could buy free ice cream cones for everyone in Bend.

Just about as useful.

Anonymous said...

DIVERSION get the people off of what the real problem is and all you folks seem to be caught up in it. The economy is the focus where it should be and what is the almighty dollar going to do? the faith in it is getting what? china and russia are giving the finger to it. I am not a genius but was born with simple common sense please people use your simple common sense it is kinda like look both ways before you cross the street

tim said...

Wilson rakes in over 750k. His opponent over a million. That race just got a lot more expensive. :-)

tim said...

From the article, that railroad has nothing to do with dinner theater and passengers, and everything to do with shipping.

So I guess it doesn't make sense to me unless Central Oregon is trying to "feature" Prineville as the place to put industry.

And so it still doesn't make sense to me. Isn't Redmond a more sensible place to pitch for industry (if anywhere in Central Oregon makes sense)?

I read Duncan's explanation and I still don't understand, unless there's some potential for railroad history buff tourism that I'm not aware of.

This seems like a waste to me. But whatever. I think the government is willing to spend, spend, spend, and it doesn't matter if it's for infrastructure or if it's just dumb spending. All spending is seen as good now.

tim said...

"Sounds like a wise use of scarce taxpayer dollars."

I don't think the government considers taxpayer dollars to be a scarce commodity.

Anonymous said...

blind and you do not deserve the truth Now i know how Jesus felt with his message.

lemmyschild said...

whoa is god posting here now?

prinville rr? too bad the article neglects to mention how many containers currently have to be unloaded and trucked into pville. probably cause the number is so small as to be invisible. seriously though, top end 10-15? more? less?
this isn't some kinda taxpayer boondoggle for the purpose of moving large quanties of tires is it?

and if its for containers why do they want to spend 3 times as much for equipment to move loose material and liquids? those things dont come in containers.

p.s. i hope the jesus complex guy responds he should have all the answers

Anonymous said...

The Prineville railroad would"potentially help others to move here".
Yeah, all those big industrial companies are just itching to get up and running in Prineville, in the middle of nowhere, hundreds of miles from the nearest port.
That is the silliest reason of all- hoping that "If we build it, they will come."
Only government thinks like that.

Anonymous said...

Let's build a NFL football statdium stadium in Bend.

Potentially, this will get us an NFL team.

tim said...

"this isn't some kinda taxpayer boondoggle for the purpose of moving large quanties of tires is it?"

I thought of that, but aren't Les Schwab tires made in China? Why would they ever need to be shipped into Prineville just to be shipped out?

Bewert said...

Tires are shipped to Portland and trucked to Priney. Railroad is for moving them.

But how long is LS going to stay in Priney? Why not just move to Portland?

Not like Les is around to stop them anymore.

tim said...

Do you know why the tires go to Prineville instead of just being shipped to their ultimate destination? To be branded like meat? Seems like a lot of energy being used for nothing if you're using Prineville as a shipping hub.

Bewert said...

No, I just know someone who worked in the Priney warehouse for a while. I think it was Les' jobs program for Priney.

Anonymous said...

Les died in 2007. He was born in Bend, and worked as a circulation manager for the Bend Bulletin.
Probably why Schwab was headquartered in Central Oregon.
Prineville does not make sense in todays world, and the current Schwab owners will figure that out shortly, and move it someplace else.

Anonymous said...

US Trade commission is imposing a 35% tarriff on all Chinese tires heading to the U.S.

hbm said...

"blind and you do not deserve the truth Now i know how Jesus felt with his message."

Jesus was a fag.

tim said...

Wilson's "You lie!" is still bringing in money for him. Word is it's brining money in for his opponent, too, but apparently Wilson's inflow has now eclipsed his opponent.

We'll see which side keeps giving, I guess.

tim said...

"bringing," not "brining," of course

hbm said...

"From the article, that railroad has nothing to do with dinner theater and passengers, and everything to do with shipping."

Maybe they gave up on the dinner theater. Never was a money-maker, from what I've heard.

hbm said...

"We'll see which side keeps giving, I guess."

Doesn't matter how much Miller gets, the insurance companies that Wilson whores for will match and surpass it.

Anonymous said...

"Never was a money-maker, from what I've heard."


Sounds a lot like HBM!

Anonymous said...

Well, another humdrum weekend in the pathetic town we call home...

It's too bad winter is knocking on the door now that September has arrived. I think I will go grab my fleece and hunker down.

Anonymous said...

Oh, BTW...this blog is dead!

I mean dead dead with only 136 posts this week. Stick a fork in it...

Anonymous said...

Winter in Sept.??

I don't live in Bend, but that seems awfully early.

I lived in Mich, and we could trick or treat at the end of Oct.

Needed a jacket, but certainly not cold.

Does Bend have a colder climate?

Anonymous said...

This blog is what we call "Bend Dead".

Marge is gone, the Pussy & Buster are shacking up in SLC.

All that is left is flaccid H-Bowel-Movement.

Rumor is homer may have died.

Thank god for Dunc creating 100's of virtual strangers, or this place would have died years ago.

Anonymous said...

Does Bend have a colder climate?

according to HMB, summer ends after August. It was pretty toasty today but I am sure it will snow tomorrow...right HMB?

Anonymous said...

Marge is off having a life, Buster is about as much fun as a bag of dicks. Pussy...well, what can you say about someone who can't keep his yap shut about how cool he is and who he knows.

MDHN09 said...

lived in Mich, and we could trick or treat at the end of Oct.

You are full of shit.. mid west is F-ing cold. October weather is a hit and miss in Bend and Mich

Anonymous said...

I lived in Mich too, 3 decades. Halloween georgeous warm, blowing leafs 1/3 of the time, raining-cold-windy another 1/3, and snowing or slushy the last 1/3. In the UP, forget it - 90% snow/rain/cold.
Bend is better climate wise. But more dangerous for most kids out that night.

Anonymous said...

Halloween night in Bend is usually cold. It is within a month of the mountain opening so it's to be expected.

Anonymous said...

"This blog is what we call "Bend Dead".


No kidding!

No we are reduced to talked about the weather?

Dead. Bend Dead!!

Anonymous said...

I lived in midwest. Never missed a Halloween. Most of them were nice. Real snow usually came in late December. Thanksgiving time required a warm jacket, but not a winter coat.

hbm said...

"according to HMB, summer ends after August."

I'm not HMB, but I'll assume you meant HBM.

I never said that. We typically (but not always) have nice Indian summer weather through October. Then on Oct. 31 winter arrives. Instantly. Like somebody dropping a curtain. And the curtain won't lift for seven months, minimum.

Anonymous said...

I lived in midwest. Never missed a Halloween. Most of them were nice. Real snow usually came in late December. Thanksgiving time required a warm jacket, but not a winter coat.

Did not live in Minneosota.. everyt Halloween required hat and warm jacket. ever spend time in Montana, nothing like 20 degrees and bittercold wind on Halloween. All you fucks and the bad weather in Bend... give it up, go tour the country and watch the weather channel OR move to Cali.

Anonymous said...

Point taken on Minnesota. Wisconsin, too. But most of the population of the midwest is Michigan, Ohio, Illinois. And those are all OK (usually) for Halloween night.

Montana isn't part of the Midwest, of course.

Anonymous said...

Where the hell is Buster these days?

Anonymous said...

>Where the hell is Buster these days?

Buster never existed except on this board and in the mind of his creator.

Anonymous said...

Ned, a mind is a terrible thing to waste.

Anonymous said...

At least we aren't talking about Kayne West.

hbm said...

"At least we aren't talking about Kayne West."

That's because there's nothing to talk about. Just another stupid nigger who wants attention.

Anonymous said...

Oh, you's classy!

Anonymous said...

I've got a suspicion that wasn't the real HBM, just someone trying to make him look bad.

Anonymous said...

You mean make him look worse.

Anonymous said...

I've got a suspicion that wasn't the real HBM, just someone trying to make him look bad.

I didn't notice the HBM...I believe you are correct.

The real HBM is a whiner not a complete douche.

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

Since Butter is too busy:

Bewert said...

Your chance to see where tens of millions of dollars are going:


The Juniper Ridge Management Board will meet at Juniper Ridge for a site visit on Thursday, September 17, 2009 from 8:30 to 10:00 a.m. The purpose of the visit is to physically tour the site and development area(s).

This meeting is open to the public.

For additional information, please contact:

Terri Shepherd

Administrative Specialist



It's a pretty big area already, from the power substation to Les Schwab, so count on more than 90 minutes.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Where the hell is Buster these days?

I'm back...

Anonymous said...


hbm said...

Pretty funny ...

"Tea Party protesters trying to tout the size of their march on Washington last weekend have been passing around a photo of a packed National Mall. But the picture is years old.

Politifact asked Pete Piringer, public affairs officer for the D.C. Fire and Emergency Department, if the rally was big enough to fill that space. Piringer said no -- and moreover, the picture can't be from 2009.

"It was an impressive crowd," he said. But after marching down Pennsylvania Avenue to the Capitol the crowd "only filled the Capitol grounds, maybe up to Third Street," he said.

Yet the photo showed the crowd sprawling far beyond that to the Washington Monument, which is bordered by 15th and and 17th Streets.

There's another big problem with the photograph: it doesn't include the National Museum of the American Indian, a building located at the corner of Fourth St. and Independence Ave. that opened on Sept. 14, 2004. (Looking at the photograph, the building should be in the upper right hand corner of the National Mall, next to the Air and Space Museum.) That means the picture was taken before the museum opened exactly five years ago. So clearly the photo doesn't show the "tea party" crowd from the Sept. 12 protest.

"I've seen bigger crowds at Montreal Expos games, but I still wouldn't fake a photo just to justify your predictions of millions descending on Washington," said one gleeful Democratic media strategist. "This is grade-A stupid and just plays into the argument that these were astroturf protests to begin with. They've always brought the noise, but the question that was supposed to be answered this weekend was, could they bring the numbers? In that respect this was an unmitigated disaster."

The photo had been circulated on blogs and Twitter. A number of conservative blogs have since taken the photo down. Some have corrected their posts. Others say the circulation of the picture was a left-wing conspiracy to discredit the event. However, many of them are still claiming that at least a million people attended the march. Nate Silver estimates about 70,000 protesters showed up.

It isn't the first failed attempt by the protesters to inflate the size of the event. On Saturday, organizer Matt Kibbe announced on stage that ABC News had estimated a crowd of 1 to 1.5 million. ABC News had reported no such thing."

I especially like these two sentences: "Others say the circulation of the picture was a left-wing conspiracy to discredit the event. However, many of them are still claiming that at least a million people attended the march."

Right-wingers have only a nodding acquaintance with reality, at best.

Now what was somebody saying about jackasses?

Anonymous said...

Marge is gone, the Pussy & Buster are shacking up in SLC.

I look in on you when I have WiFi.
I have been traveling to So. Cal. and am in Del Mar sitting here looking at the ocean and surfer boys. Good for an old lady to see those little tight buns :)
Obamy just killed all the Schwab jobs with the new tire tariff. China has given us the finger and all of your Christmas stocking will be empty this year. Have you seen the picture of the thousands of ships anchored off southern Singapore? Nobody shippen nothin. No tires for Priney anytime soon.

So, I am still around and busy enjoying my retirement.

Bewert said...

Ah, the ghost fleet that won't be bringing Christmas goodies this year. Here's the linky:

Am I the only one who thinks this thing is going to play out pretty big on the downside, before all the money being printed by the west actually has any effect?

Bewert said...

In other revolting Repub news, all R's voted for letting health insurance companies declare domestic violence a pre-existing condition to deny coverage.

Sometimes, I really don't fucking understand what you conservatives are fighting for through the Repub party.


With the White House zeroing in on the insurance-industry practice of discriminating against clients based on pre-existing conditions, administration allies are calling attention to how broadly insurers interpret the term to maximize profits.

It turns out that in eight states, plus the District of Columbia, getting beaten up by your spouse is a pre-existing condition.

Under the cold logic of the insurance industry, it makes perfect sense: If you are in a marriage with someone who has beaten you in the past, you're more likely to get beaten again than the average person and are therefore more expensive to insure.

In human terms, it's a second punishment for a victim of domestic violence.

In 2006, Democrats tried to end the practice. An amendment introduced by Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), now a member of leadership, split the Health Education Labor & Pensions Committee 10-10. The tie meant that the measure failed.

All ten no votes were Republicans, including Sen. Mike Enzi (R-Wyoming), a member of the "Gang of Six"
on the Finance Committee who are hashing out a bipartisan bill. A spokesman for Enzi didn't immediately return a call from Huffington Post.

At the time, Enzi defended his vote by saying that such regulations could increase the price of insurance and make it out of reach for more people. "If you have no insurance, it doesn't matter what services are mandated by the state," he said, according to a CQ Today item from March 15th, 2006.

Robert Zirkelbach, a spokesman for an insurance industry trade group, America's Health Insurance Plans (AHIP), said that the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) has proposed ending the discrimination. "The NAIC has a model on this that we strongly supported. That model bans the use of a person's status as a victim of domestic violence in making a decision on coverage," he said.

During the last health care reform push, in 1993 and 1994, the industry similarly promised to end discrimination against people with pre-existing conditions.

Murray pushed to include the domestic violence concern in this year's comprehensive health care bill. "Senator Murray continues to believe that victims of domestic violence should not be punished for the crimes of their abusers. That is why she worked to include language in the Senate HELP Committee's health insurance reform bill that would ban this discriminatory and harmful insurance company practice," said spokesman Eli Zupnick.

Anonymous said...

Actually, there are only 500 empty ships anchored there. However, this time of year, they should be crossing the Pacific, bringing Asian goods to America for the big Christmas season.
This xmas season is going to be bad for retailers- VERY,VERY bad.

Bewert said...

In 1994, then-Rep. Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.), now a member of Senate leadership, had his staff survey 16 insurance companies. He found that eight would not write health, life or disability policies for women who have been abused. In 1995, the Boston Globe found that Nationwide, Allstate, State Farm, Aetna, Metropolitan Life, The Equitable Companies, First Colony Life, The Prudential and the Principal Financial Group had all either canceled or denied coverage to women who'd been beaten.

The Service Employees International Union asked members to write letters to Congress regarding the exclusion and have quickly generated hundreds, says an SEIU spokeswoman.

The relevant provision:


'(a) IN GENERAL.--A group health plan and a health insurance issuer offering group or individual health insurance coverage may not establish rules for eligibility (including continued eligibility) of any individual to enroll under the terms of the plan or coverage based on any of the following health status-related factors in relation to the individual or a dependent of the individual:

(1) Health status.

(2) Medical condition (including both physical and mental illnesses).

(3) Claims experience.

(4) Receipt of health care.

(5) Medical history.

(6) Genetic information.

(7) Evidence of insurability (including conditions arising out of acts of domestic violence).

(8) Disability.

(9) Any other health status-related factor determined appropriate by the Secretary.

UPDATE: The eight states that still allow it are Idaho, Mississippi, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota and Wyoming, according to a report by the National Women's Law Center.


That is simply fucking disgusting.


Anonymous said...

Obama just raised the import tax on tires by 35%.
Les Schwab sells $1.5 billion of these tires a year.
How many Oregonians did Obama just put out of work??


Bewert said...

A bunch. Plus a bunch in other states. China makes our tires, just like they do many things, because the environment they live in is not much of a concern to their leadership.

LS got hit as hard as Goodyear:

The Goodyear Tire & Rubber Company (GT) is a leading manufacturer of tires worldwide. The Company operates 61 manufacturing facilities in 25 countries. Its business operates in four segments, including Europe, Middle East and Africa Tire (EMEA), Latin American Tire and Asia Pacific Tire

Link for more:

Les wasn't a sustainable business from a world view from the start. It amazes me that he managed to employ as many locals in Oregon and the surrounding states as he did.

But the loyalty, using already paid folks to fix things (I went to LS in La Pine on the way to Reno with a nail pickup in my tire, they did it no charge and I had never bought anything from them) worked for a long time.

Gut feeling--the new management means LS is becoming a world corp.

Priney warehouse?

Yeah, right.


What can you create and sell at a profit in Central Oregon?

Bewert said...

For you fucking fornicators out there, I must pimp this movie--it is going to be truly fucking funny:


Sitting in B&N, couple next to me that looks in their thirties talks about "...when she gets married..."

I look up and spout "You are old enough to have a daughter getting married?"

Waitress says "Yes"

They leave.

This place kills me sometimes.

But then the fucking Mo's at U of U are second behind MIT in startups.

To say nothing of BYU's football team this year.

God, I hate the fucking Mo's...

A respectful hate, perhaps.

Bewert said...

OK, I simply can't help pissing you off with this DKos rant:

Based on Rush, who has recently lost his place behind Glenn and Rep. Wilson.

Community service, Limbaugh explained, was something that should be done by convicts. Specifically, he offered: "Let prisoners do it, let prisoners pick up the trash. Let prisoners mow some highway grass. This -- this community service, folks, it's insidious. It is nothing more than a well-sounding compassionate label. But it means something entirely different. It means turning you into a robot."

Rush got out of the military because his spine almost built a tail, resulting in a near-anal leaky cyst.

Anonymous said...

A man walked into a very high-tech bar. As he sat down on a stool he noticed that the
bartender was a robot. The robot clicked to attention and asked, "Sir, what will you

The man thought a moment then replied, "A martini please."

The robot clicked a couple of times and mixed the best martini the man had ever had.

The robot then asked, "Sir, what is your IQ?"

The man answered "oh, about 164."

The robot then proceeded to discuss the 'theory of relativity', 'inter-stellar space
travel', 'the latest medical break throughs', etc.......

The man was most impressed. He left the bar but thought he would try a different tactic.
He returned and took a seat. Again the robot clicked and asked what he would have?
"A Martini please."

Again it was superb. The robot again asked "what is your IQ sir?"

This time the man answered, "Oh about 100". So the robot started discussing
Nascar racing, the latest basketball scores, and what to expect the Dodgers to do this

The guy had to try it one more time. So he left, returned and took a stool.... Again a
martini, and the question, "What is your IQ?"??

This time the man drawled out "Uh..... bout 50".

The robot clicked then leaned close and very slowly asked,
"A-r-e y-o-u p-e-o-p-l-e s-t-i-l-l h-a-p-p-y w-i-t-h O-B-A-M-A?

Anonymous said...

"The robot clicked then leaned close and very slowly asked,
"A-r-e y-o-u p-e-o-p-l-e s-t-i-l-l h-a-p-p-y w-i-t-h O-B-A-M-A?"


Ha ha ha. Good one.

But I think you are still going to have to explain it to the Pussy, him being from Utah and all.

Anonymous said...

Anybody ever hear of Phil Brogan? Wrote a book "East of the Cascades", published in 1964. I'm finding it quite fascinating.

Anybody read it? Anyone know of another book like this covering more recent years?

Anonymous said...

Yep. Phil and his wife were long, long time Central Oregonians and he was a reporter for The Bulletin for years. Extremely knowledgable about this area. You will see his name all over the place in The Bulletin archives.

I think Jim Crowell has written a more recent history of the area, if I'm not mistaken.

Anonymous said...

Bulletin says first time in 22 years Bend-LaPine school enrollment has not grown.

West side schools are still packed and growing, but other areas down.

Cascade stuff to the gills. Word is some private school kids switched to public school.

Seems like there's a lot of houses to sell and rent out there. Don't know how you do it without population growth.

Our inventory problem just got a lot bigger.

Anonymous said...

"OK, I simply can't help pissing you off with this DKos rant..."

Those KOS guys are so full of hate that steam must come out of their ears.

Poisonous place. I imagine a lot of misery and ulcers there.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Recession could become long-term jobs crisis: OECD

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The recession could turn into a long-term unemployment crisis unless governments around the world take action to help jobseekers, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Secretary-General Angel Gurria said Wednesday.

The Paris-based organization's annual employment outlook report said unemployment in OECD countries reached a post-World War II high of 8.5%, with the number of unemployed rising by 15 million since the end of 2007.

Unemployment in OECD countries could approach 10% if the recovery fails to gain momentum, the report said, with a total of 57 million people out of work.

Unemployment in the 30 countries that make up the OECD was 5.6% in 2007 before the crisis took hold.

Bewert said...

That was a great fucking joke.


Those KOS guys are so full of hate that steam must come out of their ears.

Poisonous place. I imagine a lot of misery and ulcers there.


You want hate, listen to Glenn and Rush.

DKos is righteous anger at those we elected if they cop-out to their corporate funders. It's called accountability.

And it has so much traffic the folks in office actually pay some attention.

The top-recced diary right now is:

Dear Dems, Feed me a Sh!t Sandwich on HCR and I'll BURN THIS MFing TENT TO THE GROUND
by MinistryOfTruth

It addresses the Baucus attempt to mandate buying private insurance without providing a public option, a response to a recced diary from Kucinich (yeah, that progressive nutcase) about how we will get fucked by the corps, making noise about a public option (i.e. Medicare for anyone who wants it) but in the end universal coverage will be mandated, with taxpayers helping the poor pay for theirs, but the only option will be private insurers.

In short, Kucinich wrote:

1. House will make a big deal about keeping/putting a public option in HR3200 because it competes with insurance companies and will keep insurance rates low.

2. The White House will refer to the President's speech last week where he spoke favorably of the public option.

3. The Senate will kill the competitive public option in favor of non-competitive "co-ops". Senate leaders like Kent Conrad have said the votes to pass a public option were never there in the Senate.

4. The bill will come to a House-Senate Conference Committee without the public option.

5. House Democrats will be told to support the conference report on the legislation to support the President.

6. The bill will pass, not with a "public option" but with a private mandate requiring 30 million uninsured to buy private health insurance (if one doesn't already have it). If you are broke, you may get a subsidy. If you are not broke, you will get a fine if you do not purchase insurance.

Which, as ex-CIGNA PR head Wendell Potter states, is a gift to private insurance companies. That link is to an excellent piece from Time about Potter and his journey.

Bewert said...

BTW, the Obama Health Care Reform Bus Tour is coming to Salt Lake today. Should be an interesting show.

Bewert said...

Somebody in Bend hurting?

1957 Chevrolet Bel Air/150/210 Convertible $63,500

Anonymous said...

Meh. Getting all wound up about politics is just something some people like to do.

You can drive yourselves nuts with that inside-the-beltway crap.

If that's what you dig, fine.

Some people are angry by nature, no matter what's going on. They'll go looking for something to be angry about, if they have to.

Anonymous said...

Bewert said...

You want hate, listen to Glenn and Rush.

DKos is righteous anger at those we elected if they cop-out to their corporate funders. It's called accountability.


What a fucking Bewtard. It's only righteous anger because it supports the side that you're on. DKOS bullshit sounds just as fucking hateful to someone on the other side. And with even fewer facts to back itself up!

hbm said...

"Obama just raised the import tax on tires by 35%.
Les Schwab sells $1.5 billion of these tires a year.
How many Oregonians did Obama just put out of work??"


People are still going to need tires and Les is still going to sell them. And since the tariff applies to all Chinese tires, not just the ones Les sells, the tariff does not competitively disadvantage Les vs. other tire dealers.

hbm said...

"The bill will pass, not with a "public option" but with a private mandate requiring 30 million uninsured to buy private health insurance (if one doesn't already have it). If you are broke, you may get a subsidy. If you are not broke, you will get a fine if you do not purchase insurance."

The House must stand firm and refuse to pass a bill without a public option. Without it all you've got is a perpetuation of the private-insurance monopoly -- plus a taxpayer subsidy for the insurance companies to "cover" the poor. And wait 'til you see what kind of coverage the poor will get -- $10,000 deductible, $200 co-pay for office visits and prescriptions, no conditions covered except acne, hemorrhoids and ingrown toenails.

Anonymous said...

Wrong again, HBM, my rotund little friend. The Chicoms will pass the tax onto their customers. U.S. tire dealers will then pass those expenses on to their customers. The U.S. tire customers will put off their tire purchases as long as possible. Revenues will decrease, and to maintain profitability, expenses will need to cut. See where this is all leading, big boy?

Anonymous said...

So if school enrollment didn't grow, that sorta punches the whole idea that we're going to work through the inventory right in the gut.

Anonymous said...

What Les Schwab said in OPB piece:

"As you drive into a Les Schwab tire store, you see the workers running from the office to the garage – just as they do in the famous commercials.

You also see aisles of gleaming silver rims, and bright black rubber tires.

But most of those tires aren’t the famous American brands like Goodyear.

Instead, they are off-brand labels – like the Wanli S101-5 – made in China.

Les Schwab sells $1.6 billion worth of tires every year.

The U.S. International Trade Commission says Les Schwab, and other stores, are getting the tires at an unfair discount from China.

In it’s 4-to-2 ruling, the trade panel says quotas or price restrictions should be put on tires imported from China.

Les Schwab had tried to convince the panel otherwise – it said most of those sales come from the lesser-known brands.

In a written statement, Les Schwab CEO Dick Borgam said the ruling means “Americans will face increased costs for tire and auto maintenance, at a time when most families are struggling to make ends meet.”

The company also says higher prices could result in job losses for tire sales maintenance workers."

Of course, they could be lying.

Anonymous said...

They always threaten jobs if the government takes something away.

It's the canned statement for anything corporate America doesn't like.

Bewert said...

Re: And with even fewer facts to back itself up!


Please post us some facts of yours.

Bewert said...

Re: Bewtard


Now that's a new one. I've been called a hell of a lot of things, so that's cool.

We progressives stand for paying for all peoples necessary health care (like every other industrialized country) somehow, someway. And we that helped elect the Big O are insistent on him doing so.

I mean, the fucking hated Frenchies can do it, and we can't?

That's simply unAmerican.

Bewert said...

Re: See where this is all leading, big boy?


American tire factories, again?

I'm of the firm belief that fuel-powered shipping will become so expensive that China will not be such an option in 20-30 years.

Bewert said...

Funniest thing is Les will use this to move the LS warehouse from Priney to Portland. To "be competitive".

Anonymous said...

"I'm of the firm belief that fuel-powered shipping will become so expensive that China will not be such an option in 20-30 years."

International trade by ship will remain cheap. Once you put cargo on a ship in Shanghai, it takes very little energy to push it over to Los Angeles, relative to the value of the merchandise.

It may cost more to ship that merchandise from Los Angeles to Dallas than it takes to get it from Shanghai to Los Angeles. The expensive stuff is within the country.

Anonymous said...

"I think Jim Crowell has written a more recent history of the area, if I'm not mistaken."

Couldn't find it. If you can find a title, let me know.

Anonymous said...

So, I am still around and busy enjoying my retirement.


Same here marge, and I think the pussy has finally killed this blog.

My cycle is now the same-same, come back to the shit-hole some call 'Bend' and get rental's fully occupied and then go back to Malaysia for two months, my new cycle is one month here two months over there. One more year of this shit and I'll consider permanent retirement over there, trouble is as you know marge its a bad time to sell, but renting here is just fine.

Over there I have many role models much older than me and more healthy and with more wives, ... its a good life if you got anything more than $500/month.

Yes, marge I agree, best time NOT to be in Bend in 20 years. I figure I got one more month and then I'm out of here until new years, and then wait out the cold season here because I like to be around in pipe freezing season, and then come early spring stay in Malay until lawn-mower season.

Fuck Schwab, Fuck everything in Bend, its all going down and hard. Xmas will be just fine in Asia, USA could fall off a fucking cliff and nobody would fucking notice, about 10% of China's economy is exporting to USA, so yes a few are hurt, but not the majority. In Bangkok ( which I hate, but must mention ) the economy has already turned and things are booming again. People are building new mega-resorts all over Thailand now, business is booming.

Long ago Malcolm-X said USA democracy is hypocrisy, and that the chickens were coming home to roost. Well they have arrived, and you folks will be living in a world of shit for years to come.

My blessing from my heart. I hope the pussy, and hbm continue to promote dkos as religion to the last of the Bend obese on BB2, just count me out.

Anonymous said...

It's funny how just a couple months ago Buster was so proud of himself for buying a ton of rental property in this "shit-hole some call 'Bend".

Now the dude crows about how better he is for hanging out in Malay paying for sex....Fuck everything in Bend, its all going down and hard Except the value or your rentals?...right?

just count me out.

Promise not to come back?...Kook!

Further proof that Buster is someone's made up personality...because nobody is really that stupid.

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