Sunday, September 6, 2009

Goodbye Boys of Summer... that includes Patty Moss.

I'll make this a short one, since it's the last weekend of Summer...

I saw a pretty amazing home offers over at Forum Meadows. Not "amazing" because they are Good Deals, but amazing because they show how terrible things have gotten in Bend, and amazing in illustrating the after-effects of copious Kool-Aid consumption.

From bend.craigslist.org:

$129990 / 3br - Finished Newer Homes-Ready Now! (Bend) (map)
Date: 2009-08-08, 8:05AM PDT

Introducing Newer Homes from 1113 - 2100 sqft at Forum Meadows in East Bend Near St Charles Hospital. There are 3 floor plans to choose from and all homes are complete and ready for occupancy.

These are well appointed homes with tile counters, solid wood floor entries, appliances, finished garages, window blinds, fenced yards, accented exteriors, landscaping and underground sprinklers. They are 2 blocks from shopping, restaraunts and movie theater.


These homes are now for steal at $200,000 below 07' listing price.


They are in better shape than any bank owned home and you will receive an answer within 2 days of your offer.


If you're tired of making rejected, competing offers on homes that need repairs, then call Nancy @ 541-480-4599 or Matt @ 541-280-9576 today for information on these clean and ready to move in homes.


These Forum Meadows shitshacks are down 63% from their original ask prices of $349,500. Remember Pollocks infamous statement about STEALING?

Oregon subdivision a ghost town
Saturday, December 22, 2007 at 12:00 AM

Buena Vista Custom Homes unloaded 141 homes last weekend in what company says was the biggest residential home auction in state history. But none of the 29 in Bend sold.

Still, in every place except Bend, the auction achieved what Pollock set out to do — get rid of expensive-to-carry housing inventory. And it gave him some cash to use on his next moves.

"The sale of the homes from the auction put us in a great position as a buyer," Pollock said in a news release. "There are some great deals to be had out there right now on lots."

Some of the Bend houses attracted bids, Higgins said, but none of the bids came close enough to meeting the reserve prices to justify finalizing sales on any of the homes, Higgins said.

"They were trying to steal them," Higgins said.

The company retained the right to reject any final bids below its unpublished reserve prices, Higgins said. It was obligated to close on any final bids that rose above that level.

Buena Vista had hoped to see bidding start at $189,000 for its 1,133-square-foot models in Bend and $229,000 on its 2,116-square-foot homes.

Original asking prices had been $349,500 and $443,950, respectively.

Tamara Christensen and her family live nearby. She had hoped the auction would work at least well enough to fill the houses with people who would landscape the bare-dirt backyards she sees out of her back windows.

But another nearby resident said she was OK with the way it is.

"I kind of like having fewer neighbors," Charlene Gossling said.

"It's quiet."

I'm not sure how many times I ranted about Pollock taking the low bids for those cracker-ass shitshacks, and being happy to get them, but it was quite a few. He's still on the RIP Hall of Shame masthead.

I'm telling you folks... this thing isn't over by a long shot. THIS is where some Realtor would jump in and say something about "nowhere to go but up", or some shit. They've been saying that for 2 years. Is this UP?

It's stupid ideas like Pollocks STD-fest that'll be taking down this town for decades to come.

Speaking about Taking Down, someone (Ballzee) posted a link to the actual Cease & Desist order sent to Cracker Ass Motherfucking Butt-Fugly Patty Moss, and that shithole Fraud-U-Net Bank she whores over, Cascade Bank.

Funny, but this is yet another example of The Guy On The Street Saw It Coming YEARS Before The Lying Dumbfucks Who Are Actually Perpetrating The Fraud. This raises the question whether Moss KNEW she was blowing up CACB, or whether she is a fucking moron. I vote MORON.

So anyway, back to the order. Click the link, and read it, but I'd agree with Ballzee, it is damn "harsh":

the Bank...cease and desist from the following unsafe banking practices...
  1. operating with management whose policies and practices are determinetal to the Bank and jeopardize the safety of its deposits;
  2. operating with inadequate capital in relation to the kind and quality of assets held by the Bank;
  3. operating with a board of directors that which has failed to provide adequate supervision over and direction to the active management of the Bank;
  4. operating with inadequate loan valuation reserve;
  5. operating with a large volume of poor quality loans;
  6. operating in such a manner as to produce operating losses;
  7. operating with inadequate provisions for liquidity;

I mean Holy Shit! If that ain't a stinging rebuke for Moss, I don't know what is. The rest of the order is a bunch of micro-management directives about HIRING PEOPLE WHO KNOW HOW TO RUN A BANK, with the VERY OBVIOUS implication that those who are there now, DO NOT KNOW HOW TO.

One of the directives from Sheila BEAR HUG Bair, is that Mossco get Tier 1 capital up to 10%. It is not even close now:

Cascade Bancorp (Oregon) Announces Filing of Form 10-Q Quarterly Report and Financial Results for the Second Quarter of 2009
At June 30, 2009, the Company's leverage, tier 1 capital and total risked-based capital ratios were 5.19%, 6.03% and 8.87%, respectively...

FDIC also lays out how Mossy can and cannot raise money, one of which is the hilarious "raise it from the Board of Directors"! WTF! I also believe that "Begging for the money in the local lie-filled rag" is another legit money-raising avenue.

Mossy can also issue new stock... but hmmmm... that is NOT happening. I wonder why? Oh right... Wall Street would rather buy large, puss-ee (pussy?) maggots and eat them. Wall St would no more buy CACB stock than it'd rise & fly. Even CACB's largest shareholder KNOWS that this bank is DEAD & GONE, and will not give a nickel to save it.

OK, so I think Mossy & Pollock have finally earned their badge of shame on our RIP masthead.

OK, just some interesting pieces I read this week. First, I can't help but reprint the BBC piece, since it's hard with the character limits in the comments, and I think it's just a great balance to what you hear from Costa (ie 100% BULLSHIT):

Economic crash in Oregon boomtown

By Adam Brookes BBC News, Bend, Oregon

Bend, Oregon was a 21st century American boomtown. It is a beautiful place, in the high desert of central Oregon, amid mountains.

The sunshine is warm, the air crisp and filled with the scent of bitterbrush and pine.
Its people are gracious, their gorgeous surroundings imbuing them with a certain American languidness.

All these attributes were - in the minds of the city's ambitious planners and businessmen - what would bring the retirees and tourists flocking to Bend. To accommodate them, a boom in housing began.


Boom and bust


The population of Bend quadrupled in under 20 years - from 20,000 to 80,000.
Between 2001 and 2005, the median value of a home in Bend rose by 80%.

By 2005, work was getting underway on 700 new homes each month.

Some of the developments are stunning: houses filled with mountain light clinging to craggy hillsides.


More than 17% of the workforce was employed in construction - far higher than the national average.


In what had once been an isolated lumber and mill town, high-end restaurants and brewhouses opened. Shops selling expensive bric-a-brac bloomed. Massage therapists and hairdressers proliferated.

Downtown Bend looks like a shrine to post-millenial bijou: pricey shoes, scented candles, fancy coffee. There is even a shop specialising in beachwear - despite Bend's location in the high desert.


But when the US slumped, Bend crashed.


The value of a home fell 40% in under two years.
And unemployment nearly quadrupled from around 4% two years ago to 15% in the summer of 2009.

"Everything that Bend produced relied on the credit market", says Carolyn Eagan, an economist with the Oregon Department of Employment.


"Construction materials, doors and fittings, recreational vehicles: everything depended on people being able to consume more than they could use."


Now the credit has dried up, and the building of Bend has stopped.
The town is dotted with developments that got underway, and then ground to a halt.

They are desolate expanses of weeds, dust and discarded construction materials.


Homeless shelter


In downtown Bend, we met Dan Hardt. Mr Hardt used to employ 20 people hanging drywall in Bend's new homes.

He owned three houses of his own, and a boat.

He used to go on elk-hunting trips.
Now it is gone - all of it.

"When the building stopped, the lifestyle went very fast," he told us.

"It's a lifestyle I don't see coming back."


Dan now lives at the Bethlehem Inn
, a motel converted to an emergency homeless shelter.


"Those who were living at the at the top of the heap and who have fallen to the bottom, they don't know where to go for help, they don't know how to get that help.

There's anger and frustration and a sense of entitlement," says Corky Senecal, who heads emergency housing services for Neighbor Impact, and has 30 years experience of providing services for the poor.


"The middle class is where it's really been decimated," she says.
When you lose your job in America, you will receive financial aid from the government. But it is limited.

Typically, an unemployed worker in Bend will get state benefits for a period of six months to a year. After that, as many in Bend are discovering, you are on your own.


In addition, the loss of a job frequently means the loss of health insurance and payments into retirement funds.

This limited social safety net means unemployment in America can be devastating.
"It's not just the job that stops," says Dan Hardt. "Everything else stops with it."

Ms Senecal introduced us to to Randy Worrell and his 11-year-old daughter, Patty.
Mr Worrell, a burly 42-year-old former firefighter, was laid off from a variety of jobs.

He has not worked since the end of last year - and his unemployment benefits have run out.


"I don't know what I will do from one day to the next," he says.


Lesson learned
Neighbor Impact has put him and Patty in temporary accommodation. He will look for work, he says, for six hours a day.

And he is deeply sceptical of pronouncements emanating from Washington DC that the US economy is showing signs of recovery.


"Lately it's all, 'the economy is turning around'. No, it's not. At least it's not for us," he says. "I don't think we've even hit rock bottom yet. I think we have some way to go."

Bend, Oregon has a great deal going for it, and will, no doubt, experience some sort of recovery. The population of the city has not noticeably shrunk, which is a good sign.


But no-one expects the housing market ever to revert to its previous, ferocious levels of activity. And many will tell you they have no desire for it to do so, that Bend has learned a lesson about bubbles.


But in the US, joblessness can alter a life trajectory for ever. Seven and a half million Americans have lost their job since the start of the recession.


And unemployment's clawmarks will be visible on the face of Bend, and of the US, for a long while to come.


Some of this reporting is a little misguided (gracious?), but it is definitely not a piece you would EVER find in any Bend media outlet. It's basically an onthology and cataloging of greed and it's after-effects. Again, you will NEVER see this sort of thing from the Bully.

Another good piece I saw was from Mish:

Friday, September 04, 2009

How Overpriced Is The S&P 500?

Inquiring minds are wondering How Overpriced Is The S&P?

It's an excellent question given bulls feel the market is headed much higher while the bears feel the opposite after a remarkable 50% rally.

Let's start off with a look at the financial sector where Allowances for Loan and Lease Losses (ALLL) have plunged even though non-performing loans soar.


To understand the importance of ALLL, inquiring minds are reading a description of Allowances for Loan & Lease Losses.


Businesses try to predict, on an ongoing basis, the amount of loss in their accounts. They take periodic charges to earnings to better match losses to periods when they occurred. Banks do this as well.

They use current income, through the provision for loan and lease losses, to create and build a reserve to absorb losses.
The ALLL can be increased another way.

When the bank collects on previously charged-off loans, the amount recovered goes into the ALLL.
Charged-off loans decrease the ALLL.

If a bank decides it has overestimated its potential loss exposure, it can choose to reduce its ALLL and add the amount to its income. This is known as making “reverse provisions” for loan and lease losses, because the bank decreases the allowance, or reserve amount, rather than increasing the provision.

It is rare for a bank to make a reverse provision, however, because of the imprecise nature of determining an appropriate reserve.
One last point to remember with respect to the reserve is that the ALLL is a general reserve.

Therefore, even if a bank analyzes and estimates the loss on each loan, the allowance is there to absorb all losses in the loan portfolio and is not specific to a particular loan.
Remember that allowances for loan losses will decrease as charge offs increase. However, the above charts are in relation to non-performing loans.

Because allowances for loan losses are a direct hit to earnings, and because allowances are at ridiculously low levels, bank earnings have been wildly over-stated.
Bank Profits Too Good To Be True Flashback April 16, 2009:

Wells Fargo’s Profit Looks Too Good to Be True:

Jonathan Weil
What sent Wells shares soaring on April 9 was a three-page press release in which the San Francisco-based bank said it expected to report first-quarter net income of about $3 billion.

Wells disclosed few details of what was in that figure. And by pushing the stock up 32 percent that day to $19.61, investors sent a clear message: They didn’t care.


Dig below the surface of Wells’s numbers, though, and there are reasons to be wary. Here are four gimmicks to look out for when the company releases its first-quarter results on April 22:


Gimmick No. 1: Cookie-jar reserves.


Wells’s earnings may have gotten a boost from an accounting maneuver, since banned, that it used last year as part of its $12.5 billion purchase of Wachovia Corp. Specifically, Wells carried over a $7.5 billion loan-loss allowance from Wachovia’s balance sheet onto its own books -- the effect of which I’ll explain in a moment.


Once it took control of the reserve from Wachovia, Wells was free to start dipping into it to absorb new credit losses on all sorts of loans, including loans Wells had originated itself. (Think of a child raiding a cookie jar.)


The upshot is that Wells could get by with reduced provisions until the $7.5 billion is used up, boosting net income.


Another quirk: The reserve was related to $352.2 billion of Wachovia loans for which Wells was not forecasting any future credit losses, according to Wells’s annual report.
Weil goes on with three other highly suspicious (at best) practices by Wells Fargo, including a balance sheet holding of $109 billion of "other assets".

Weil writes:
"The footnote says the largest component was a $44.2 billion bucket that Wells labeled as “other.” Yes, that’s right: The biggest portion of “other assets” was “other.” And what did this include? The disclosure didn’t say. Neither would Bernard.

Talk about a black box. That $44.2 billion is more than Wells’s tangible common equity, even using the bank’s dodgy number. And we don’t have a clue what’s in there.


FDIC Problem Bank List Soars To 416


For a nice discussion of some of the problems facing the financial sector, please consider For FDIC, a long tunnel and little light by Rolfe Winkler at Option Armageddon.


FDIC’s problem bank list grew to 416 at the end of last quarter. These banks have $300 billion of assets.


In total, FDIC estimates the banking sector is wrestling with $332 billion worth of loans and leases on which borrowers have stopped making payments. That excludes hundreds of billions worth of underwater loans that may be current now but will ultimately default.

Many banks, including the largest ones, are likely to struggle for some time.

How Big is the B of A, and Citigroup Problem?

Citigroup and Bank of America have received hundreds of billions of dollars of government support, but, precisely because of that support, they’re not on the FDIC’s list.

Adding them to it would multiply total problem assets 10 times, to $3 trillion.
Asset prices aren’t going back to their highs of 2006-2007, so loans held against them will be generating losses for years.

The FDIC may raise enough cash from banks to fund depositor losses in small and medium-sized banks, but it is clear that the biggest banks are far too large for them to handle.


As a result, the government’s emergency rescue measures aren’t going away for a while. And taxpayers should expect to be writing fat bailout checks to the financial system for years to come.

America’s Japanese banks Inquiring minds are reading America’s Japanese banks also by Winkler.

A banking system loaded down with hundreds of billions of dollars worth of unrecognized bad debt — Japan in the 1990s? No, it’s the United States today.
And where are American banks hiding their losses?

Among other places, in their loan portfolios. Banks have written down billions in toxic securities, but many toxic loans are still carried at close to full value.
According to data published by the Federal Reserve late last year, banks are carrying $3 trillion of residential real estate loans and $1.7 trillion of commercial real estate loans on their books for a total of $4.7 trillion.

Dan Alpert at Westwood Capital thinks as much as a fifth of that total could be uncollectable.
Banks argue that loans should not be marked down if they’re still “performing.”

As long as borrowers are meeting their contractual obligations, there’s no reason to take a writedown. The problem is, this gives banks an excuse to extend, amend and pretend. They can make concessions on loan terms or delay foreclosure notices, if only to maintain the fiction that borrowers will make good.


With real estate prices likely to fall, and stay, 40 percent below the peak, borrowers have a big incentive to renege on their side of the bargain. This is how we become Japan.

Emergency bailout facilities allow banks that otherwise would have failed under the weight of bad loans to hold those loans to maturity — pretending the bad ones will be paid off in full over time.


In reality, many loans will default and banks will bleed capital for years. Take commercial real estate. As the Congressional Oversight Panel has reported, few CRE loans that were originated at the peak will qualify for refinancing when they mature.

Banks can pretend they will, carrying the loans at values far above what will ever be paid back.


So what do we do? We can start by eliminating government guarantees that allow banks to avoid dealing with the problem.


As things stand, the biggest banks have no incentive to write down loans because the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and Treasury Department have, in effect, promised them unlimited financing to hold loans to maturity.


As the Japanese can tell you, this is just a recipe for stagnation. Thanks to a debt bubble that authorities refused to deal with decisively, that country is now entering its third consecutive lost decade.

S&P 500 Earnings Given that loan loss provisions directly affect earnings. Let's take a look a PE chart of the S&P 500 from Chart of the Day.
PE Ratio, S&P 500

That chart was from earlier in the month. Nearly all companies have now reported and the PE is down to 127.43.

If that sounds preposterous you can check the S&P 500 Excel Spreadsheet right on Standards and Poors.
Real vs. Operating Earnings The chart above is based on actual reported earnings.

Unfortunately it's difficult to find anyone stating P/E ratios based on actual earnings. Instead, because the media and investor bias tends towards being 100% invested 100% of the time, nearly all estimates you see are based on "operating earnings".


Barron's had an excellent article on this subject in May of 2008. It is as relevant today as it was then. Please consider What's the Real P/E Ratio?
There are two main earnings numbers that Wall Street uses when discussing valuations -- "reported earnings" or "operating earnings."

Typically, the bulls use "operating earnings," and the bears use "reported earnings" because operating earnings are higher and reported earnings are lower.

Also, it makes sense for the bears to use the past 12 months of earnings because they are usually lower, and for the bulls to use forward operating earnings to help make their case.

Using the last 12 months is much more consistent, since it avoids dependence on estimates of earnings.
Operating earnings exclude write-offs, while reported earnings include write-offs.

That is the only difference, but it's a difference that is getting much more important.

As recently as the early 1990s, operating and reported earnings were virtually the same. But then we entered the greatest financial mania of all time, and the earnings numbers diverged.


There were so many write-offs by companies making unwise investments and then undoing them that operating earnings grew much faster than reported earnings.

The write-offs that had been sporadic and unusual became common for many companies.
Using operating earnings is now like playing in a golf tournament that doesn't count any penalty strokes for hitting the ball into a water hazard or out of bounds.

Over the past 75 years, most market peaks topped at around 20 times reported earnings, and the troughs occurred at around 10 times earnings. The financial mania of the late 1990s pushed P/Es to over 40 times reported earnings, and the following bust never brought P/Es below 18 times reported earnings.


There's more we can do to make sense of earnings: The best way to measure present earnings and future earnings is to smooth them out over long periods.

Earnings can grow at only approximately 6% a year over the long term. The trend is limited by the growth in real GDP plus inflation.

And long term, real GDP cannot grow faster than the increase in the labor force plus the increase in productivity.


If you don't accept this, look at a long-term chart and draw a 6% growth line through the earnings. It is clear that earnings sometimes rise above the line and sometimes fall below it, but earnings always revert to the 6% mean.


Going back to 1950, every instance where actual earnings rose above trend-line earnings was followed by a period where actual earnings went well below trend-line earnings.


Creative Destruction


Please bear in mind that historical long term trends are just that. Intermediate-term, it is imperative to factor in demographics, changing consumer attitudes towards debt, willingness and ability of banks to lend, overall debt levels, etc.


I have discussed consumer attitudes many time, most recently in Creative Destruction.
Factors Sealing The Deflationary Fate

The five month, 50% rebound in the S&P 500 was certainly spectacular.

However, the more important question is where to from here?
Take a look at Japan's "Two Lost Decades" for clues.

Creative destruction in conjunction with global wage arbitrage, changing demographics, downsizing boomers fearing retirement, changing social attitudes towards debt in every economic age group, and massive debt leverage is an extremely powerful set of forces.


Bear in mind, that set of forces will not play out over days, weeks, or months. A Schumpeterian Depression will take years, perhaps even decades to play out.
Thus, deflation is an ongoing process, not a point in time event that can be staved off by massive interventions and Orwellian Proclamations "We Saved The World".

Bernanke and the Fed do not understand these concepts, nor does anyone else chanting that pending hyperinflation or massive inflation is coming right around the corner, nor do those who think new stock market is off to new highs.

In other words, almost everyone is oblivious to the true state of affairs.


How Overpriced Is The S&P?


Take another look at those charts kicking off this article. Factor in the analysis of Winkler and Weil. Factor in demographics, consumer attitudes, etc.

Factor in global wage arbitrage. Factor in loan loss provisions that have only one way to go, up. Factor in consumer debt levels, realizing that consumer spending is 70% of the economy.
Do the forward earnings estimates you hear from bulls make any sense to you? They do not make sense to me.

While it's hard to put a price tag on any of those components, we can look at Japan as a model as I have suggested on many occasions and Winkler is suggesting now.
If you have not yet done so, please consider Effect of Household Deleveraging on Housing, Consumption and the Stock Market.

Here is a snip pertaining to Japan, but there is much more in the article to see.

Nikkei, 28 yrs

A look at the Nikkei shows that Japan has already lost two decades since the peak in 1990. It is likely the US follows the same general pattern.

Of course some huge innovation like the internet could come along that would create enormous profits and employ millions of highly paid workers.

However, the odds of that are extremely small.
Thus, the risk/reward scenarios of long term investing are awful based on fundamentals alone.

Traders however, will have many opportunities in both directions.
All things considered, I suggest the S&P 500 is easily 50% overvalued based on what we know now.

That is not a prediction the S&P will be cut in half, rather it is my belief that it should be cut in half. Given that I have seen estimates as low as 200, I am not "SuperBear".


However, the reality is no one really knows what innovation is (or is not) coming, nor can anyone say for certain what valuations investors are willing to place on earnings. There are also foreign Central Bank issues to fact in.

With that in mind, the S&P could easily meander around this level for a decade while earnings catch up to what are now very poor valuation metrics.


As always, traders need to keep an open mind and not get locked into any scenario. Long-term investors will have to take what they get.

Unfortunately, I suggest those results are not likely to be very pretty.


Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com


The title of the piece is sort of misleading because it is primarily about banking. What I think is amazing is the B of A and Citigroup chart.

These 2 banks on their own DWARF the size of the S&L problem several fold.

The number of failed institutions going down right now is quite low. But the size is incredible. And this graph doesn't even include AIG. Or Fannie. Or Freddie. Add those in, and you get a real sense that this current problem is something that will not fade away quietly.

Our government is trying to keep these companies off the FAILED board, because the incredible upset caused by just letting Lehman go (a piker in comparison) was not acceptable, and truly would have melted down the Worlds economies.

And it could still happen. I honestly do not think the US Government can recitify the situation. It's my strong belief that the bursting of the housing & credit bubble is the most important event of our lives (economically), and it's effects will be felt for decades.

And finally, I wanted to post this Oregonian piece.

Increase in Portland-area home foreclosures worries analysts
Posted by mgraves September 03, 2009 18:06PM

Portland-area foreclosure filings have begun ticking up again this summer, reversing a spring trend that showed mortgage defaults had leveled off.

County records show that the number of mortgage defaults -- the first step in a foreclosure -- rose less than 2 percent in Clackamas, Multnomah and Washington counties between the first and second quarters of 2009.

But this summer, new foreclosures are on pace to jump 9 percent in the third quarter to about 3,500 for the tri-county region, or 38 filings every day.

"We're not seeing any relief," said Sande Sivani, a consultant who researches property records and records documents for title companies. "It's going up and up and up."

The uptick comes as lenders, which months ago had put a moratorium on foreclosures, have grown more aggressive with struggling borrowers.

The housing market has seen a mild boost from bargain-hunting investors and first-time buyers chasing a federal tax credit. But the renewed interest isn't coming fast enough or broad enough for some home owners.

Double-digit unemployment and falling home values have pinched home owners between shrinking income and homes that are worth less than the mortgage debt. The position leaves them few options to avoid a default. "It's the high unemployment that's driving foreclosures," said Patrick Newport, U.S. economist with economics firm IHS Global Insight.

Banks, despite political pressure from the White House, remain reluctant to modify troubled mortgages to try to save homeowners from foreclosure. More frequently, borrowers whose mortgage fall into default are not escaping trouble.

Fitch Ratings Ltd., a credit-rating firm, examined mortgages that had been packaged into securities. The firm found that between 2000 and 2006, 45 percent of borrowers who fell behind on prime loans -- those with the best credit -- were able to "cure" their delinquency by catching up on their payments. But that cure rate has plunged to just 7 percent for prime loans.

For Alt-A loans, those with a slightly higher credit risk, the cure rate has fallen from 30 percent to 4 percent. For subprime loans, the riskiest type, the rate went from 19 percent to 5 percent.

In the three-county Portland area, Sivani said she found 800 loan modifications recorded in the first six months of the year. But, she said, her sampling found about only one in 10 were modifications tied to a delinquent mortgage.

Either way, those modifications were dwarfed by the more than 6,300 new mortgage defaults the lenders had recorded in those three counties in the same time period.

Despite Obama's calls for banks to lighten up on troubled borrowers, Newport said: "That isn't going to happen. Usually it's in the banks' interest to take the loan into foreclosure."

A July study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston found that lenders expect to make more money on foreclosures than from a modified loan. That's because a large percentage of borrowers historically either "cure" the delinquency on their own or they receive a loan modification, then default on the mortgage again.

By many measures, Oregon continues to fare better than the nation that's been dragged down by Arizona, California, Florida and Nevada. But in some cases, the state's woes are unmatched in its own record books.

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported recently that about 8.5 percent of Oregon mortgage holders were at least 30 days delinquent or in some stage of foreclosure during the second quarter.

For the first time in this downturn, that figure has surpassed the previous high water mark set during the 1980s recession. The second quarter figure was the state's worst since the association started keeping track in 1979.

Those looking for a brighter outlook in the next year may have a difficult time.

Barclays Capital forecasts the number of foreclosed homes for sale will peak in mid-2010 at 1.15 million, up from an estimated 688,000 as of July 1, the Wall Street Journal reported.

IHS Global Insight's this week ranked Portland as the country's sixth most overvalued housing market. The firm says the Pacific Northwest is the final region to watch the froth of the boom years burn off.

Of the 11 markets labeled overvalued, seven fall in Oregon or Washington.
Dunc, please help me do horny FRASH-DANCE in this metal crib!
I wish I had a pearl necklace instead...
Now that the Downtowners gone, where we get an hbm sandwich?

288 comments:

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Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
"I think Jim Crowell has written a more recent history of the area, if I'm not mistaken."

Couldn't find it. If you can find a title, let me know.


It's not quite what I thought is was, but it might be an interesting read. Also, go to Paulina Books in either Redmond or Sisters. They have a lot of local history stuff. Below in a link to something that might explain Crowell's book a little better. Also, I saw where The Bulletin archives are now online. Much of what's written about the area originates there anyway, I think.

http://www.historycooperative.org/journals/ohq/109.3/br_6.html

Anonymous said...

There are only 100,000.people in Bend. Since, on average, it only takes a chain of 5 people to find out who someone is, go to work, and find out who is real, and who is made up.

Anonymous said...

Here is the book written by Elsie Williams and containing a chapter and photos by Jim Crowell

Bend Country: Past and Present by
Elsie Horn Williams with a New Chapter and Photographs By Jim Crowell
Bookseller: Bygone Pages
(Aurora, MN, U.S.A.)

Bookseller Rating:

Quantity Available: 1
Book Description: Donning Company Publishers, Virginia Beach, Virginia, 1998. Cloth. Book Condition: Very Good. Dust Jacket Condition: Very Good. Second Edition. 4to - over 9¾" - 12" tall. This is a nice rare copy of a nonfiction history book about central Oregon called The Bend Country: Past and Present, copyright 1998, second edition, hard cover, dust jacket, written by Elsie Horn Williams with a new chapter and photogrpahs by Jim Crowell. The book and its dust jacket have minor wear and in very good condition, with tight binding, nice photographs, new archival mylar wrap on dust jacket and 223 pages. Inscribed By Photographer. Bookseller Inventory # 005065

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hbm said...

"I'm of the firm belief that fuel-powered shipping will become so expensive that China will not be such an option in 20-30 years."

I recall reading a while back that the rising cost of diesel was causing a renewed interest in sail power. If your cargo doesn't have to get there in a hurry it could make sense.

Anonymous said...

"DKOS bullshit sounds just as fucking hateful to someone on the other side. And with even fewer facts to back itself up!"

Dude, have you ever even read the site? All it is is facts...and truly, "hateful" is what you get from Beck...completely unfounded hate.

Anonymous said...

Here is another book on Bend by Elsie Horn Williams:

Bend: A Pictorial History
(Hardcover, 1983)

Author: Elsie Horn Williams

BEST PRICE
$13.72

LIST PRICE
$17.95
Save 23%

Format: Hardcover
ISBN-10: 0898652030
ISBN-13: 9780898652031
May 1983
Publisher: Walsworth Pub Co
Language: English


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Anonymous said...

Listen up kiddies, Schwab is waaay
ahead of this detour. These days it's simple strategy to move your supply source to the next Asian
country. Think the Chinese tire mfrs don't have plants in Viet Nam, Cambodia, Loas,Malaysia, Indonesia?... all shitholes with cheap labor < mainland China. Whaa
Laa, now it's not 'made in China', and doesn't fall under DOC's trade ruling. Done, simple. Cheap tires
for the working man.... won't miss a beat over at Schwab's.

hbm said...

"Think the Chinese tire mfrs don't have plants in Viet Nam, Cambodia, Loas,Malaysia, Indonesia?... all shitholes with cheap labor < mainland China. Whaa
Laa, now it's not 'made in China', and doesn't fall under DOC's trade ruling."

Not so sure about that -- I'm going to check it out. Methinks if it were so simple Schwab wouldn't be bitching about it so much.

"Cheap tires for the working man"

"Working man" is kind of a misnomer, since chances are he doesn't have a job because it's been shipped off to some Third World shithole.

The plutes will realize their longstanding dream when the entire world is a Third World shithole and everybody except them is working for a dollar a day.

BTW the word you were groping for is "voila." "Whaa Laa" sounds like the noise a crying baby makes.

Anonymous said...

Herpetic Blistering Malignancy, does it make you feel superior to correct other's enlish? It really does prove just how smart you are. No, I take that back. It make you look like more of an arrogant asshole than you already are.

Anonymous said...

It's funny how just a couple months ago Buster was so proud of himself for buying a ton of rental property in this "shit-hole some call 'Bend".

*

Yes, its funny, the funniest part is buster never paid over $50k for any, .. cuz they were all bought pre 1983.

Today, its not like I can't sell above cost, today the problem is there are no buyers at any cost.

Minor problem? Hic!

Yes, if I could sell out of this shit-hole and never CUM back, I would, and I think the same for HBM, ... and many of the KUNT's here,

So I'm fucking bend-stuck, and what am I doing about it? Spending as little time here as possible.

Proud of myself? Hey, its retirement income, I'm not complaining, my ONLY complaint is all the ASS-HOLES that arrived here post 1980.

Anonymous said...

Let me correct myself, as someone may not correctly infer my assertion.

Everyone who came to Bend post 1980 is a fucking ASS-HOLE, and probably from Cali.

Ok?

Anything left unsaid??

PopGoesBend said...

>Yes, its funny, the funniest part is buster never paid over $50k for any, .. cuz they were all bought pre 1983.

Which is funny because buster was bragging about buying a crap shack near drake park for $240k just over two years ago.

That's the problem with making shit up.... tough to remember it all

Anonymous said...

Fuck everything in Bend, its all going down and hard Except the value or your rentals?...right?

*

I think this is a dead horse like all the so called debate here, for a few of us like me, bem, and homer we said it all back in 2006 in this forum, and everything we predicted has came to Bend.

Then along come 2007 and BB2 is/was flooded with assholes like the pussy and hbm.

Given that the majority of fuck-heads on BB2 are NOT owner's of real-estate, this entire blog is really a complete waste of fucking time.

Will my rentals go below cost? No, I think we predicted back in 2006 that the bottom would be $120k-$180k, 4X of income, and that wild card is dropping like a rock, income that is for the average fuck-head trapped in Bend.

I was getting $750 a month for rentals 20 years ago, and not much more today, ... and I'm not complaining.

Homes on the westside near drake-park will not go below $50k, ... I have long made this assertion.

Anonymous said...

Which is funny because buster was bragging about buying a crap shack near drake park for $240k just over two years ago.

*

That wasn't a rental, it was a home to live in for trudi and bruce, my kids.

Not often you can pick up homes near drake-park with big trees and off-street parking, and big lots, .. that's why we old timers call these troughs the best of times.

For rentals, I wouldn't buy anything over $150k. Period, that's pencil point, and I have said that a million times in this forum. Of course today with 4% rates and luv-guv deals I suspect a young kid could go as high at $200k,

It's all going to come back in 2016, so why worry, trouble is that's a long time to live in a box and eat canned beans.

Anonymous said...

If I finger bang my asshole and smell my fingers can I be part of this blog??

PopGoesBend said...

>That wasn't a rental, it was a home to live in for trudi and bruce, my kids.

That's some funny shit.

Anonymous said...

I think I'm going to get sick.

My head is spinning even comic books are no longer making sense to me.

Duncan McGeary said...

If you throw up on them, they won't be worth anything....

Bewert said...

>That wasn't a rental, it was a home to live in for trudi and bruce, my kids.

That's some funny shit.

####

Yeah, that is.

Buster, I grew up taking care of my Dad's rentals in Eau Claire. It can be a total fucking pain in the ass. With the Bend economy, I am amazed you can find good renters.

The whole thing kind of changed my view of getting rich in real estate buying and renting...as a friend of mine recently put it: you are just buying yourself a job.

Better to create one from thin air.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

BTW the word you were groping for is "voila."

My sister played the voila in high school.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

If I finger bang my asshole and smell my fingers can I be part of this blog??

You can run the motherfucker with qualies like that.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

my ONLY complaint is all the ASS-HOLES that arrived here post 1980.

Dude, if that were your only complaint, this motherfucking blog would have 2 comments a week.

Anonymous said...

Interesting article about CACB in the latest edition of CBN.

Private investment company has been quietly buying up undisclosed amounts of CACB stock...they have faith!

It's gonna be in Homeboy's Sunday rant for sure...if you're hurting for material, they just backed a dump truck to your door with this addition of CBN.

Be sure to catch the article about residential housing sales...they are up you know!

Anonymous said...

Yes, this CBN is must read, they make it sound like dozens of folks are buying CACB stock, ... but then at the end of the story it says ...

"If the FDIC really does shutdown CACB and force them to auction their real-estate holdings, then that will be the end of Bend"

Folks, its over.

Get your copy for free at Cascade Locks Brewpub, or wherever fat ass golfers congregate.

Anonymous said...

>That wasn't a rental, it was a home to live in for trudi and bruce, my kids.


Shit who would have guessed that trudi and bewert were brother and sister?

Who could have known?

Who would have guessed?

Anonymous said...

> If you throw up on them, they won't be worth anything....


Ned, if theres a little pee stain are they still saleable?

I was countin on selling mee comic collection on craigs

It would be good of you to be up front with us on our assets, to frankly tell us what a little vomit, piss, dog-shit, urea, goose-shit, ... on comics in Bend will fetch.

There's probably not a thing in my house that don't have a little excrement on it, just need to know, maybe I ain't got the net worth I think?

Anonymous said...

Interesting article about CACB in the latest edition of CBN.

*

I think the best thing about this issue, is there are several pages on how to sell your garbage on ebay and craigs, ..

Who could have guessed that in 1-3 years Hulse could of would gone from hustling RE sales, to selling unused condoms on craigs? There is even a list of folks who will buy your 10+ year old cell phone, ...

What's best is the article about how everyone should find a job that doesn't involve larceny or fraud, I don't make this shit up, its true there is a whole article about how you can be happy if your job isn't about fucking your neighbor in the ass.

Who could have guess the turn around of our Bend elite, it brings tears to my comic eyes.

FYI: If you all haven't noticed but across the street from Newport, where there was a video store, its NOW a pawn-shop. The best of times are now on the west side!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

"Here is another book on Bend by Elsie Horn Williams"


Thanks for the tips.

My oh my, what a variation of folks we get on this blog.

Anonymous said...

There's a ton of books about 'Bend' and they're all for sale at the Bend historical museum.

Get off your lazy fucking ass and turn off the computer, and go there and peruse.

Anonymous said...

FYI: If you all haven't noticed but across the street from Newport, where there was a video store, its NOW a pawn-shop. The best of times are now on the west side!!!!!!!!!!!

Really? Rudy has got to be pissed about that.

That article on CACB makes it sound like people in the know are smartly snapping up CACB stock. Get it while it's hot, this ones going to the moon!

On the page prior to the CACB article, PHA declares..."go ahead and declare the recession over. It's not likely that there's anything more that we can do to help the economy than to believe that it's getting better".

Sounds like a Disney movie....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Get off your lazy fucking ass and turn off the computer, and go there and peruse.

Good one! I assume you are posting via carrier pigeon...

Anonymous said...

Most of the people who came to Bend after 1980, are from other parts of Oregon, not California.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Most of the people who came to Bend after 1980, are from other parts of Oregon, not California.

BULLSHIT! Native Oregonians don't even begin to know how to act like such assholes.

Anonymous said...

Why did Congress defund ACORN? Where are prostitutes and pimps supposed to go for Federally-funded business help?

PopGoesBend said...

>FYI: If you all haven't noticed but across the street from Newport, where there was a video store, its NOW a pawn-shop. The best of times are now on the west side!!!!!!!!!!!

No, not really. It's a consignment clothing store that moved from next to Hutch's on Columbia. Last time I was in they seemed to have a lot of vintage and hipster items.

hbm said...

"With the Bend economy, I am amazed you can find good renters."

I'm surprised he can find ANY renters for his crapshacks. I've heard from an extremely reliable source that the vacancy rate for residential rentals in Bend is running at an astronomical 30% because there's such a glut of them. Buster the Slumlord probably went to Malaysia to dodge his creditors.

Anonymous said...

We must not critize ANY government program, no matter how lame or corrupt.
Anyone who does is a racist!

Anonymous said...

All hail our leader!

Obamabot # 324, Northwest legion

Anonymous said...

I don't know much about stock buying, but it sure looks to me like someone's trying to keep that stock at 1.20 or above.

If I had a significant amount invested in this bank and the only chance I had of ever getting it back is if the bank survives, and stock is so cheap that I only have to throw a small amount of good money after the bad to keep the stock up, then I might try that. (When pigs fly....)

Or, buy whenever it reaches dangerously low levels, and sell every time it peaks a little over the 1.20 range.

Of course, I don't know if stock price has much to do with the bank survival -- the FDIC may have completely different standards, but...I suspect that having it drop to penny stock range make sit even more unviable.

Like I said, I don't even know if this is possible, but that's how it looks...

You all probably can guess who I am, but I think I'll post anonymously this time.

Duncan McGeary said...

I still like Obama.

He's Robert Redford, at the bottom of the ninth, ready to bat it out of the ballpark.

(The movie, not the book...)

hbm said...

"He's Robert Redford, at the bottom of the ninth, ready to bat it out of the ballpark."

With the count at 0-and-2.

God, I hope you're right, but I fear Mighty Obama is going to strike out. Why did he waste all spring and summer playing footsie with the Republicans, trying to achieve "bipartisanship" on health care reform, when he had a huge electoral mandate, large majorities in both houses, and it was clear to anyone smart enough to tie his own shoelaces that the Republicans wouldn't accept ANY meaningful reform proposal?

Possible explanations:

1. Obama is not smart enough to tie his own shoelaces. (Can't buy that one.)

2. Obama is smart, but naive and inexperienced. (More plausible than #1, but still can't quite buy it.)

3. Obama was never truly as progressive as he made himself out to be during the campaign. That's the one I'm leaning towards now.

Anonymous said...

Obama is a a970's liberal. Big gov. programs are the solution to everything.
He is alienating one group after another ("Cops did a stupid thing"),etc.
His supporters call opponents to his plan "ignorant". A sure way to win votes.
Dems. will loose 20% of the seats next year, and without a super majority, Obama is dead.
He will be out in 2012.

MDHN09 said...

Obama is dead.
He will be out in 2012.
______________

who the fuck is going to take over.. the Pugs are screwed, no Unity- 1/3 is creating this HATE against Obama and that is not gonna work.

Besides when there is a environmental disaster sometime in the next 3 years- Obama is make Gilliani/ Bush team of 911 look elementary.

Anonymous said...

Okay, this native Oregonian needs to rant. Forwarned...

MDHN09 said...

Hello, newbie. May I call you Newbie Asshole Douchebag?

Shut the fuck up until you have been here at least 6 months. Are you just another idiot Bruce Pussy?


Obama is dead.
He will be out in 2012.
______________

who the fuck is going to take over.. the Pugs are screwed, no Unity- 1/3 is creating this HATE against Obama and that is not gonna work.

Besides when there is a environmental disaster sometime in the next 3 years- Obama is make Gilliani/ Bush team of 911 look elementary.

===

Okay, Newbie Asshole Douchebag (NewbieAss, or AssholeDouch, or NAD for short, much better than MDHN09), we all know you are now the official Blog Bitch that everybody can piss on. Thanks for stepping up to fill Bruce Pussy's shoes, since he has left the bldg, and hbm and dunc feel all alone w/o her.

Spew more of you idiotic Obama-love all over us. We don't get near enough DKos from dunc and hbm.

Duncan McGeary said...

"Spew more of you idiotic Obama-love all over us. We don't get near enough DKos from dunc and hbm."

I like Obama.

But I have a feeling I like him a lot less than you seem to hate him.

Duncan McGeary said...

DKos.

You seem a little obsessive about this. I've never been to this site; I can't imagine anything more boring than going to political websites. Blah.

You really need to get off this anti-Obama rant stuff.

tim said...

"I've heard from an extremely reliable source that the vacancy rate for residential rentals in Bend is running at an astronomical 30% because there's such a glut of them."

I drove around yesterday and the number of "For Rent" signs was astounding. I've never seen half the number of signs I see how.

What's going on with that?

tim said...

"I can't imagine anything more boring than going to political websites."

Don't ever go there Duncan. It's all the worst parts of progressive politics. It would make you throw up to see what happens to liberals who hang out together for too long. :-)

Duncan McGeary said...

Yeah, I stopped watching MSNBC because -- even though I agreed with a lot of it, I hate the reaching for stuff that the Oberdolferman seems to do just to summon up rage.

There's enough outrageousness already.

Back in the political campaign, I kept being accused of 'liberal talking points.'

I had never seen MSNBC, nor even been to Dkos, or any of those sites. When I finally watched MSNBC, I realized that much of what I was thinking was also being said there -- but...I didn't get it from there, or any other media. I was making up my own mind.

So...Fox News is pretty much out, MSNBC is mostly out, and the rest of the media seems too superficial.

Obama's just a political. I can't understand the hate. I never hated Bush. I just thought he was incompetent.

Duncan McGeary said...

I'm so old fashioned, I'd prefer not to use nicknames or disparagements, even when I don't agree.

Call people by their proper name. Palin, Bush, Obama. Give them proper respect, even if you disagree.

Duncan McGeary said...

"Call people by their proper name..." I say, and just above it I have Oberdolferman -- by that's just because I can never remember his name.

tim said...

I agree. Using silly names makes you look sillier than the damned politicians. It's just childish.

I think my problem with all these left and right extremists is how sure they are. No one should be that smug and self-righteous. It's bad for the soul.

MDHN09 said...

Hello, newbie. May I call you Newbie Asshole Douchebag?

you can call me asshole douchebag, newbie- no.
i think i have listened to you bubble heads spew your shit for almost three years. i just call myself different names or go anomos.

i moved from cali and sell real estate.

MDHN09 said...

I drove around yesterday and the number of "For Rent" signs was astounding. I've never seen half the number of signs I see how.

What's going on with that?

well over 100 rental listings a day on craigslist,

second wave is a commin.. crazy how these realatourons are STILL in denial!

Quimby said...

>> I think my problem with all these left and right extremists is how sure they are. No one should be that smug and self-righteous. It's bad for the soul.

Amen, and these are the types that can get whipped up into a fever and fight each other over silly name calling. Dangerous!

"Flag wavers" I call 'em.

MDHN09 said...

not that the left is any better but..........


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lUPMjC9mq5Y

Anonymous said...

3. Obama was never truly as progressive as he made himself out to be during the campaign. That's the one I'm leaning towards now.

*

4.) OR-BOMB-EO is a bought and paid whore brought to you by AIPAC, and he is doing everything that his masters wish. AIPAC, Insurance Lobby, AIPAC-Lobby all same-same.

The OREO is just BUSH in a nigger's jump suit. Who could have guessed?

Well its America.

Regarding "Flags", hey Quim, the voice of rationality.

My favorite HL-Mencken line is "Everytime I see an asshole wave a flag, I expect to get a bill".

Nothing has changed since the 1930's, all these flag-wavers left&right are on somebodys AIPAC payroll.

The good news is now HL-Mencken is considered 'anti-semitic', who could have guessed.

OREO's mother was Likud, who could have guessed.

Anonymous said...

Ok, KUNTS I just did a full search on craigs of rentals, and I didn't find one fucking rental in my core area of 1/2 mile radius of drake park.

Right Now I have 100% occupancy, and have one person exiting on OCT1, and last time someone moved out July1, I had the home filled same-day.

FYI

Real Estate is always location, location, location. I note that most of the BEND-SHIT ( I see a lot Redmond on craigs ), is that HOMER-PALISCH shit out on the siberian ( Dunc ) east-side. God forbid that shit, $600/month for a new house and sitting empty.

I still charge an average of $995/month, for 3bd/2bth, and I don't take dogs. Yet, I love dogs.

Anonymous said...

The new BP is probably BP, note that BP is addicted to this fucking site. I really like the part about being an asshole from cali who is into RE. A persona made in heaven for this group.

I think he's just created a new persona that has balls.

I don't watch TV, and this past six months I quit reading the news, and have now quit reading the WSJ and FT for the first time in 25+ years.

I think OREO is doing exactly what his owners/handlers want, which is nothing. Well except make bigger mess in the middle-east.

This country is going down and hard, and everything that can be looted is being looted. FYI.

PopGoesBend said...

>Ok, KUNTS I just did a full search on craigs of rentals, and I didn't find one fucking rental in my core area of 1/2 mile radius of drake park.

852 columbia:
http://bend.craigslist.org/apa/1379622046.html

839 columbia:
http://bend.craigslist.org/apa/1374413193.html

Ogden at 8th:
http://bend.craigslist.org/apa/1354795440.html

338 riverfront:
http://bend.craigslist.org/apa/1381387000.html

323 riverfront:
http://bend.craigslist.org/apa/1376515243.html

Stacatto building: (hey, it's less than half a mile from drake)
http://bend.craigslist.org/apa/1373732572.html

1335 hartford:
http://bend.craigslist.org/apa/1354054346.html

------------
I know I missed a bunch, I didn't look that hard.

Anonymous said...

Read what the experts say about the OREO and his nation of parasites, ...

"The very existence of this regime is an insult to the dignity of the people," the hardline Ahmadinejad said of Iran's arch-foe Israel.

"They (the Western powers) launched the myth of the Holocaust. They lied, they put on a show and then they support the Jews.

"If as you claim the Holocaust is true, why can a study not be allowed?" he said to chants of "Death to Israel" from the crowd gathered for the annual display of solidarity with the Palestinians.

"The pretext for establishing the Zionist regime is a lie... a lie which relies on an unreliable claim, a mythical claim, and the occupation of Palestine has nothing to do with the Holocaust," he added.

"This claim is corrupt and the pretext is corrupt. This (the Israeli) regime's days are numbered and it is on its way to collapse. This regime is dying."

Washington condemned Ahmadinejad's comments as ignorant and hateful.

British Foreign Secretary David Miliband branded the comments "abhorrent as well as ignorant," and said they were "not worthy of the leader of Iran".

"The coincidence of today's comments with the start of Jewish New Year only adds to the insult," he added.

French foreign ministry spokesman Bernard Valero called the remarks "unacceptable and shocking. We resolutely condemn them."

In Berlin German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said they shamed Iran.

Similar comments by Ahmadinejad shortly after his first election as president in 2005 also sparked an international outcry.

Then he said Israel was "doomed to be wiped off the map".

Anonymous said...

Within 30 years, the majority of Europe will be Muslim.
Within 30 years, the majority in the U.S. will be Hispanic, Asian, or Muslim.
None of these groups care about the existance of Israel.

Anonymous said...

"...asshole from cali..."

----------

A little redundant, don't-cha-think?

Duncan McGeary said...

I drove through my neighborhood last night, Williamson Park, and didn't see a single house for sale or rent. (There were about 3 rentals a couple of weeks ago, up for less than a month.)

Looks like most people are staying a paying.

hbm said...

"Ok, KUNTS I just did a full search on craigs of rentals, and I didn't find one fucking rental in my core area of 1/2 mile radius of drake park."

That's an awfully tiny core area.

Within MY core area (within a half-mile radius of my house) there aren't any rentals available either.

hbm said...

"It would make you throw up to see what happens to liberals who hang out together for too long."

Ever check out the Freak Republic site?

hbm said...

"We don't get near enough DKos from dunc and hbm."

Believe it or not, I never look at Daily Kos unless I hear about something with a local or state angle there.

hbm said...

"Dems. will loose 20% of the seats next year"

Why can't right-wingers ever learn the difference between "loose" (adjective) and "lose" (verb)?

Was they ALL "home-skuled"?

They're not that great at arithmetic either. Democrats currently hold 313 seats in the House and Senate. A loss of 20% would mean a loss of almost 63 seats. Care to explain where the fuck the Repugs will pick up 63 seats?

For comparison: In 2004 the Repugs lost 29 House and six Senate seats, and that was (rightly) considered a disaster.

If you're going to pull a number out of your ass, at least pull one that has some remote relationship to reality.

hbm said...

"Similar comments by Ahmadinejad shortly after his first election as president in 2005 also sparked an international outcry. Then he said Israel was "doomed to be wiped off the map"."

I'm-a-Dinner-Jacket is just playing to the cheap seats with this rhetoric. He knows damn well that if Iran attacks Israel it will be reduced to a cinder in about 15 minutes.

tim said...

>>Ever check out the Freak Republic site?

Not sure. Link? I feel the same way about the right 10% of the country as the left 10%.

Too cocky. Too strident. Too hateful.

Some on DKos say that everyone opposed to Obama is racist. A sane lefty will not say this. It's prejudgment and painting-with-one-brush that's the equivalent to racism itself.

tim said...

'Why can't right-wingers ever learn the difference between "loose" (adjective) and "lose" (verb)?

Was they ALL "home-skuled"?'

There is so much childishness and meanness (in more than one sense) in these two paragraphs that it may as well have been posted on KOS.

Yeah, all liberals and no conservatives know the difference between loose and lose.

Don't be the poster boy for the worst elements of your political faction. Elevate yourself above the fray--you'll sound more reasonable and more intelligent.

Right now you're coming off as poorly as the dope (and he's one dope, not a meaningful representative for his party) who can't get his "loose" right.

You're being a caricature of what people don't like about liberals.

Quimby said...

>> You're being a caricature of what people don't like about liberals.

Thank you Tim. Someone had to say it and you did so eloquently.

HBM, are you for real?

tim said...

I just want to be able to hear HBM's opinions without all the name-calling and gratuitous slime-balling of the people he doesn't like. I'm not a big fan of bullies.

Anonymous said...

HBM's a fag!

hbm said...

Tim: "Right now you're coming off as poorly as the dope (and he's one dope, not a meaningful representative for his party) who can't get his "loose" right."

Anon: "HBM's a fag!"

Now THERE's an intelligent response from a right-winger. But at least he spelled "fag" right.

I know you'll say he's not "representative" of his political faction, but I get this kind of shit day after day from right-wingers, both here and on my own blog. I seem to have become their favorite local hate target. I can deal with that, but I get pissed off and lash back once in a while. Sorry, I'm human.

Anonymous said...

Your own blog? Is that the one about your life and times, posted over at the Sore? What's it called, The Wandering Brown Eye?

Bewert said...

Re: What's it called, The Wandering Brown Eye?

####

Yep, another brilliant asshole.

####

Timmy:

http://www.freerepublic.com

http://townhall.com/

The two main right wing sites. I subscribe to Townhall.

What irks me is that Fox News is even given the title of news. They don't even post the correct party of those being shown. It depends on if they agree with the comment (that's an "R") or if they don't (yep, a "D").

Reality has no bearing on their graphics.

hbm said...

"Yep, another brilliant asshole."

Recent studies have shown that 43% of Republicans have hemorrhoids. The rest are perfect assholes.

Anonymous said...

Our local daily newspaper offers a great editorial rant this morning about an impending socialist menace, warning ominously of “the specter of a vast and sprawling federal bureaucracy [that] is too horrible to contemplate.”

Is the editorial attacking liberal health care reform ideas like single-payer or the “public option”? Nope – it’s attacking federal aid to education, and it came from the paper’s archives of 1961.

Specifically, the editorial is ripping the Crook County School Board for showing interest in accepting – horrors! – federal money to help with school construction and – double horrors! – teachers’ pay.

“There may be some justification for federal help in school construction, particularly in the more hard-pressed areas of the country,” The Bulletin conceded. “But the proposal to provide federal money for teacher salaries is a piece of political skullduggery.

“The specter of a vast and sprawling federal bureaucracy in control of America’s schools is too horrible to contemplate. We’re convinced that federal money for paying our teachers would be an opening wedge. This must not happen.”

It might be hard for anybody born after, say, 1955 to believe that federal aid to education was once hotly controversial, but it was. When I was on my high school debating team in the mid-1960s, the topic one year was “Resolved: That federal aid to education should be significantly increased.”

The argument on the anti side was that the eeee-vil, tyrannical federal government wanted to “take over” education and extend its slimy, socialistic tentacles into every classroom in America – just as we’re hearing today that the eeee-vil, tyrannical federal government wants to “take over” health care and extend its slimy, socialistic tentacles into every doctor’s office.

Of course conservatives have said pretty much the same thing about every progressive idea going back for more than a hundred years. They said it about Social Security, they said it about Medicare and, as we have just seen, they said it about federal aid to schools. Today only the lunatic fringe of the lunatic fringe wants to abolish these programs, and it would be hard to imagine America without them.

For progressives, in addition to a good laugh, the 1961 Bulletin editorial offers some encouragement. It shows that change for the better does gradually happen – although the conservatives have to be dragged along kicking and screaming every inch of the way.

For conservatives, the lesson of the editorial is that they need a new line. Your old one’s getting mighty tired, folks.

Posted by :
H. Bruce Miller



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God I am so glad tom mcall was wrong his signs saying visit but don't stay were so wrong now ican follow h b miller he is my saviour everything he says is true. Nobody else has an opionion but to follow hb miller I am going to worship his word as god almighty.

Anonymous said...

Recent studies have shown that 43% of Republicans have hemorrhoids. The rest are perfect assholes.
%%%%%%%%%%%%

It takes real men like Bewart and HBM to recognize perfect assholes.

Anonymous said...

Mandatory Insurance Is Unconstitutional
Why an individual mandate could be struck down by the courts.Article Comments (154) more in Opinion »Email Printer
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By DAVID B. RIVKIN JR. AND LEE A. CASEY
Federal legislation requiring that every American have health insurance is part of all the major health-care reform plans now being considered in Washington. Such a mandate, however, would expand the federal government’s authority over individual Americans to an unprecedented degree. It is also profoundly unconstitutional.

An individual mandate has been a hardy perennial of health-care reform proposals since HillaryCare in the early 1990s. President Barack Obama defended its merits before Congress last week, claiming that uninsured people still use medical services and impose the costs on everyone else. But the reality is far different. Certainly some uninsured use emergency rooms in lieu of primary care physicians, but the majority are young people who forgo insurance precisely because they do not expect to need much medical care. When they do, these uninsured pay full freight, often at premium rates, thereby actually subsidizing insured Americans.

The mandate's real justifications are far more cynical and political. Making healthy young adults pay billions of dollars in premiums into the national health-care market is the only way to fund universal coverage without raising substantial new taxes. In effect, this mandate would be one more giant, cross-generational subsidy—imposed on generations who are already stuck with the bill for the federal government's prior spending sprees.

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Chad Crowe
Politically, of course, the mandate is essential to winning insurance industry support for the legislation and acceptance of heavy federal regulations. Millions of new customers will be driven into insurance-company arms. Moreover, without the mandate, the entire thrust of the new regulatory scheme—requiring insurance companies to cover pre-existing conditions and to accept standardized premiums—would produce dysfunctional consequences. It would make little sense for anyone, young or old, to buy insurance before he actually got sick. Such a socialization of costs also happens to be an essential step toward the single payer, national health system, still stridently supported by large parts of the president's base.

The elephant in the room is the Constitution. As every civics
As Clint would say Hb miller Who are you?

tim said...

Why does it feel as if we're just playing games now in politics instead of trying to get things fixed?

Are we just trying to score points against the other side?

Anonymous said...

[Ron Paul's] Federal Reserve Transparency Act, HR 1207, [is] now up to 232 co-sponsors. It needs a two-thirds vote with 290 members on board so ... Obama will not veto it.

Ron Paul's office has just confirmed that 290 members are now on board supporting the bill.


Here is the list of 289 supporters (plus Paul equals 290).

Obviously, support in the Senate for the parallel bill is crucial. According to Zero Hedge, there are approximately 25 co-sponsors for Sen. Bernie Sanders' S 604 Bill, "The Federal Reserve Sunshine Act of 2009.

What do you think Hb miller should we audit the fed?Yes or no?

Anonymous said...

Yes tim it does suck but things will never be fixed. It is like asking hitler in his day why can;t we all just get along?He would not smoke a joint with you and say yes. We live in a world where power is more important to some than money or anything else. History is our guideline nothing has changed.

tim said...

The problem with saying it's always sucked is that we remove all hope. Maybe it's true, but I would rather have hope.

I can at least express my anger at people using made-up names for their opponents. This is how we dehumanize.

I can at least complain about how big Washington has got and the creepy lobbyist system.

Maybe I can't do any good, but I can't stop saying how childishness and meanness remove the impact of the messages that HBM is trying to convey.

And as for the immediate responses you get, those are obviously just people who enjoy provoking you. To me those people could even be apolitical. They just delight in the lowering the discourse. Not that I blame them, much, as so many people have given up on the system that it really doesn't matter to them what they say or what you say.

People are dropping out. As we keep reading, people think the game is rigged. They don't believe in the politicians or the media or any other institution.

Anonymous said...

What is truth ? and what is the intentions of what our forefathers intended for our country to become? They laid it all out on the table remember these guys lived in another time. Those principles have not changed. example- gold and silver to be our only exchange to buy or sell of goods. If we were still on the gold standard we would not be in the shape we are in today.You could not print money out of thin air there would be a basis for economic exchange.Things have gotten so out of hand the only thing to happen is a cleansing or correction as painful as it willbe.

LavaBear said...

>>>The problem with saying it's always sucked is that we remove all hope. Maybe it's true, but I would rather have hope.

It has always sucked BUT we always have hope. That's how they built the system. Make it suck to a point where not a whole lot gets done but always have hope that the next election can go in your favor and then....it will suck. I think the suck factor was built into the system from the beginning with hope as well.

Anonymous said...

"If we were still on the gold standard we would not be in the shape we are in today"

Dude, I know you are our token gold bug, and that there is nothing I can say that can change your mind, but in response to the above, the answer is YES, if we were still on the gold standard we would not be in the "shape" that we are today, we would be a lot POORER.

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