Sunday, January 25, 2009

Then and Now

Usually on these weekly posts, I wax on about how awful it's going to get. But I read the following piece, and this week I figured I'd wax off.

Read this.

Great Depression in the United States
I. Introduction

Great Depression in the United States, worst and longest economic collapse in the history of the modern industrial world, lasting from the end of 1929 until the early 1940s. Beginning in the United States, the depression spread to most of the world’s industrial countries, which in the 20th century had become economically dependent on one another. The Great Depression saw rapid declines in the production and sale of goods and a sudden, severe rise in unemployment. Businesses and banks closed their doors, people lost their jobs, homes, and savings, and many depended on charity to survive. In 1933, at the worst point in the depression, more than 15 million Americans—one-quarter of the nation’s workforce—were unemployed.

The depression was caused by a number of serious weaknesses in the economy. Although the 1920s appeared on the surface to be a prosperous time, income was unevenly distributed. The wealthy made large profits, but more and more Americans spent more than they earned, and farmers faced low prices and heavy debt. The lingering effects of World War I (1914-1918) caused economic problems in many countries, as Europe struggled to pay war debts and reparations. These problems contributed to the crisis that began the Great Depression: the disastrous U.S. stock market crash of 1929, which ruined thousands of investors and destroyed confidence in the economy. Continuing throughout the 1930s, the depression ended in the United States only when massive spending for World War II began.

The depression produced lasting effects on the United States that are still apparent more than half a century after it ended. It led to the election of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who created the programs known as the New Deal to overcome the effects of the Great Depression. These programs expanded government intervention into new areas of social and economic concerns and created social-assistance measures on the national level. The Great Depression fundamentally changed the relationship between the government and the people, who came to expect and accept a larger federal role in their lives and the economy.

The programs of the New Deal also brought together a new, liberal political alliance in the United States. Roosevelt’s policies won the support of labor unions, blacks, people who received government relief, ethnic and religious minorities, intellectuals, and some farmers, forming a coalition that would be the backbone of the Democratic Party for decades to come.

On a personal level, the hardships suffered during the depression affected many Americans’ attitudes toward life, work, and their community. Many people who survived the depression wanted to protect themselves from ever again going hungry or lacking necessities. Some developed habits of frugality and careful saving for the rest of their lives, and many focused on accumulating material possessions to create a comfortable life, one far different from that which they experienced in the depression years.

The depression also played a major role in world events. In Germany, the economic collapse opened the way for dictator Adolf Hitler to come to power, which in turn led to World War II.

II. Causes of the Depression

It is a common misconception that the stock market crash of October 1929 was the cause of the Great Depression. The two events were closely related, but both were the results of deep problems in the modern economy that were building up through the “prosperity decade” of the 1920s.

As is typical of post-war periods, Americans in the Roaring Twenties turned inward, away from international issues and social concerns and toward greater individualism. The emphasis was on getting rich and enjoying new fads, new inventions, and new ideas. The traditional values of rural America were being challenged by the city-oriented Jazz Age, symbolized by what many considered the shocking behavior of young women who wore short skirts and makeup, smoked, and drank.

The self-centered attitudes of the 1920s seemed to fit nicely with the needs of the economy. Modern industry had the capacity to produce vast quantities of consumer goods, but this created a fundamental problem: Prosperity could continue only if demand was made to grow as rapidly as supply. Accordingly, people had to be persuaded to abandon such traditional values as saving, postponing pleasures and purchases, and buying only what they needed. “The key to economic prosperity,” a General Motors executive declared in 1929, “is the organized creation of dissatisfaction.” Advertising methods that had been developed to build support for World War I were used to persuade people to buy such relatively new products as automobiles and such completely new ones as radios and household appliances. The resulting mass consumption kept the economy going through most of the 1920s.

But there was an underlying economic problem. Income was distributed very unevenly, and the portion going to the wealthiest Americans grew larger as the decade proceeded. This was due largely to two factors: While businesses showed remarkable gains in productivity during the 1920s, workers got a relatively small share of the wealth this produced. At the same time, huge cuts were made in the top income-tax rates. Between 1923 and 1929, manufacturing output per person-hour increased by 32 percent, but workers’ wages grew by only 8 percent. Corporate profits shot up by 65 percent in the same period, and the government let the wealthy keep more of those profits. The Revenue Act of 1926 cut the taxes of those making $1 million or more by more than two-thirds.

As a result of these trends, in 1929 the top 0.1 percent of American families had a total income equal to that of the bottom 42 percent. This meant that many people who were willing to listen to the advertisers and purchase new products did not have enough money to do so. To get around this difficulty, the 1920s produced another innovation—“credit,” an attractive name for consumer debt. People were allowed to “buy now, pay later.” But this only put off the day when consumers accumulated so much debt that they could not keep buying up all the products coming off assembly lines. That day came in 1929.

American farmers—who represented one-quarter of the economy—were already in an economic depression during the 1920s, which made it difficult for them to take part in the consumer buying spree. Farmers had expanded their output during World War I, when demand for farm goods was high and production in Europe was cut sharply. But after the war, farmers found themselves competing in an over-supplied international market. Prices fell, and farmers were often unable to sell their products for a profit.

International problems also weakened the economy. After World War I the United States became the world’s chief creditor as European countries struggled to pay war debts and reparations. Many American bankers were not ready for this new role. They lent heavily and unwisely to borrowers in Europe, especially Germany, who would have difficulty repaying the loans, particularly if there was a serious economic downturn. These huge debts made the international banking structure extremely unstable by the late 1920s.

In addition, the United States maintained high tariffs on goods imported from other countries, at the same time that it was making foreign loans and trying to export products. This combination could not be sustained: If other nations could not sell their goods in the United States, they could not make enough money to buy American products or repay American loans. All major industrial countries pursued similar policies of trying to advance their own interests without regard to the international economic consequences.

The rising incomes of the wealthiest Americans fueled rapid growth in the stock market (see Stock Exchange), especially between 1927 and 1929. Soon the prices of stocks were rising far beyond the worth of the shares of the companies they represented. People were willing to pay inflated prices because they believed the stock prices would continue to rise and they could soon sell their stocks at a profit.

The widespread belief that anyone could get rich led many less affluent Americans into the market as well. Investors bought millions of shares of stock “on margin,” a risky practice similar to buying products on credit. They paid only a small part of the price and borrowed the rest, gambling that they could sell the stock at a high enough price to repay the loan and make a profit.

For a time this was true: In 1928 the price of stock in the Radio Corporation of America (RCA) multiplied by nearly five times. The Dow Jones industrial average industrial average—an index that tracks the stock prices of key industrial companies—doubled in value in less than two years. But the stock boom could not last. The great bull market of the late 1920s was a classic example of a speculative “bubble” scheme, so called because it expands until it bursts. In the fall of 1929 confidence that prices would keep rising faltered, then failed. Starting in late October the market plummeted as investors began selling stocks. On October 29, known as Black Tuesday, the worst day of the panic, stocks lost $10 billion to $15 billion in value. By mid-November almost all of the gains of the previous two years had been wiped out, with losses estimated at $30 billion.

The stock market crash announced the beginning of the Great Depression, but the deep economic problems of the 1920s had already converged a few months earlier to start the downward spiral. The credit of a large portion of the nation’s consumers had been exhausted, and they were spending much of their current income to pay for past, rather than new, purchases. Unsold inventories had begun to pile up in warehouses during the summer of 1929.

The crash affected the economy the way exposure to cold affects the human body, lowering the body’s resistance to infectious agents that are already present. The crash reduced the ability of the economy to fight off the underlying sicknesses of unevenly distributed wealth, agricultural depression, and banking problems.

III. Economic Collapse (1929-1933)

The stock market crash was just the first dramatic phase of a prolonged economic collapse. Conditions continued to worsen for the next three years, as the confident, optimistic attitudes of the 1920s gave way to a sense of defeat and despair. Stock prices continued to decline. By late 1932 they were only about 20 percent of what they had been before the crash. With little consumer demand for products, hundreds of factories and mills closed, and the output of American manufacturing plants was cut almost in half from 1929 to 1932.

Unemployment in those three years soared from 3.2 percent to 24.9 percent, leaving more than 15 million Americans out of work. Some remained unemployed for years; those who had jobs faced major wage cuts, and many people could find only part-time work. Jobless men sold apples and shined shoes to earn a little money.

Many banks had made loans to businesses and people who now could not repay them, and some banks had also lost money by investing in the stock market. When depositors hit by the depression needed to withdraw their savings, the banks often did not have the money to give them. This caused other depositors to panic and demand their cash, ruining the banks. By the winter of 1932 to 1933, the banking system reached the point of nearly complete collapse; more than 5,000 banks failed by March 1933, wiping out the savings of millions of people.

As people lost their jobs and savings, mortgages on many homes and farms were foreclosed. Homeless people built shacks out of old crates and formed shantytowns, which were called “Hoovervilles” out of bitterness toward President Herbert Hoover, who refused to provide government aid to the unemployed.

The plight of farmers, who had been in a depression since 1920, worsened. Already low prices for their goods fell by 50 percent between 1929 and 1932. While many people went hungry, surplus crops couldn’t be sold for a profit.

Natural forces inflicted another blow on farmers. Beginning in Arkansas in 1930, a severe drought spread across the Great Plains through the middle of the decade. Once-productive topsoil turned to dust that was carried away by strong winds, piling up in drifts against houses and barns. Parts of Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado became known as the Dust Bowl, as the drought destroyed the livelihood of hundreds of thousands of small farmers. Packing up their families and meager possessions, many of these farmers migrated to California in search of work. Author John Steinbeck created an unforgettable fictional portrait of their fate in the novel The Grapes of Wrath (1939).

IV. Initial Response to the Depression

The initial government response to the Great Depression was ineffective, as President Hoover insisted that the economy was sound and that prosperity would soon return. Hoover believed the basic need was to restore public confidence so businesses would begin to invest and expand production, providing jobs and income to restore the economy to health. But business owners saw no reason to increase production while unsold goods clogged their shelves. By 1932 investment had dropped to less than 5 percent of its 1929 level.

Convinced that a balanced federal budget was essential to restoring business confidence, Hoover sought to cut government spending and raise taxes. But in the face of a collapsing economy, this served only to reduce demand further. As conditions worsened, Hoover’s administration eventually provided emergency loans to banks and industry, expanded public works, and helped states offer relief. But it was too little, too late.

The epitome of a “self-made man,” Hoover believed in individualism and self-reliance. As more and more Americans lost jobs and faced hunger, Hoover asserted that “mutual self-help through voluntary giving” was the way to meet people’s needs. Private giving increased greatly, reaching a record high in 1932, but charitable organizations were overwhelmed by the enormous number of people in need. To many, government assistance seemed the only answer, but Hoover was convinced that giving federal relief payments would undermine recipients’ self-reliance, and he resisted this step throughout his term.

The tension between citizens seeking government action and Hoover’s administration came to a head in June 1932. More than 20,000 World War I veterans marched on Washington, D.C., to ask for early payment of government bonuses they had been promised. But the government refused, and when some members of the so-called Bonus Army didn’t leave the capital, federal troops used tear gas and bayonets to evict the men and their families (see Bonus March).

Hoover and most of his Republican Party firmly supported protective tariffs to block imports and stimulate the American economy by increasing sales of American-made products. In 1930 they enacted the Hawley-Smoot Tariff, which established the highest average tariff in American history. This was a crushing blow to European economies, which were already sinking into depression. Other nations retaliated by raising their own tariffs. This action helped to worsen and spread the depression by choking off international trade. Between 1929 and 1932 the total value of world trade had declined by more than half.

V. International Effects of the Depression

Like Hoover, leaders of other nations around the world were determined to balance their budgets by raising taxes and slashing government spending. Germany, struggling to pay reparations imposed by the peace settlements after World War I, suffered to a larger extent than any other major industrial nation. Nearly 40 percent of the German workforce was unemployed by 1932. In these desperate economic circumstances, large numbers of Germans began to listen to the tirades of Hitler, who blamed the depression on Jews and Communists and promised to restore Germany to economic and military strength. After his Nazi (National Socialist) Party became the strongest political force in Germany, Hitler was named chancellor in January 1933. He soon seized absolute control of the German government.

In Britain the effects of the depression were not as dramatic because the nation had been suffering from high unemployment through much of the 1920s. Unlike the United States, Britain already had unemployment insurance and government welfare payments to ease the burden on the jobless. The depression took longer to hit hard in France because it was less industrialized than the United States, Germany, and Britain. Also, because so many French men had died in World War I, the workforce was very small, and it took a severe economic decline before the demand for workers fell below the small supply.

VI. Roosevelt and the New Deal

By the election year of 1932, the depression had made Hoover so unpopular that the election of the Democratic presidential candidate Franklin Delano Roosevelt was all but assured. Confidence—Hoover’s elusive goal—was Roosevelt’s most abundant quality. Declaring in his inaugural speech that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself,” Roosevelt quickly lifted the nation’s spirits with the rapid and unprecedented actions of the New Deal.

Within days of his inauguration Roosevelt called Congress into a special session, during which many pieces of emergency legislation were passed. Following the example of many states, Roosevelt proclaimed a nationwide bank holiday, closing all banks to stop panicky depositors from withdrawing their money. A few days later he broadcast the first of many fireside chats on the radio, reassuring Americans that all banks that were allowed to reopen would be safe.

The New Deal produced a wide variety of programs to reduce unemployment, assist businesses and agriculture, regulate banking and the stock market, and provide security for the needy, elderly, and disabled. The basic idea of early New Deal programs was to lower the supply of goods to the current, depressed level of consumption. Under the Agricultural Adjustment Act of 1933, the government sought to raise farm prices by paying farmers not to grow surplus crops. Parts of the National Industrial Recovery Act created codes for many industries that regulated competition while guaranteeing minimum wages and maximum hours for workers.

The New Deal also tried to increase demand, pumping large amounts of money into the economy through public works programs and relief measures. Public works projects not only provided jobs but built schools, dams, and roads; the innovative Tennessee Valley Authority provided electric power and improved living conditions in an area of the southeast United States.

However, Roosevelt never embraced the new ideas of British economist John Maynard Keynes, who argued that intentionally unbalancing the budget to a significant degree would boost demand to the point where recovery would take place. The U.S. gross public debt increased from $22.5 billion in 1933 to $40.44 billion in 1939, but Roosevelt was reluctant to accept any more deficit spending than seemed absolutely necessary to prevent mass suffering. He did not create an unbalanced budget on the scale Keynes advocated until World War II forced it upon him. Once the government started spending at the levels Keynes had suggested, the depression ended.

The New Deal helped people to survive the depression, but acted as a painkiller rather than a cure for the nation’s economic ills. Unemployment was reduced, but remained high through the 1930s. Farm income rose from a low of $1.9 billion in 1932 to $4.2 billion in 1940. The demands of the depression led the United States to institute social-security programs and accept labor unions, measures that had been taken decades earlier in many European nations.

VII. Life During the Depression

The Great Depression had a substantial and varied impact on the lives of Americans. Physically and psychologically, it was devastating to many people, who not only lacked adequate food, shelter, and clothing but felt they were to blame for their desperate state.

Although few people died from starvation, many did not have enough to eat. Some people searched garbage dumps for food or ate weeds. Malnutrition took a toll: A study conducted in eight American cities found that families that had a member working full time experienced 66 percent less illness than those in which everyone was unemployed.

The psychological impact was equally damaging. During the prosperity of the 1920s, many Americans believed success went to those who deserved it. Given that attitude, the unemployment brought by the depression was a crushing blow. If the economic system really distributed rewards on the basis of merit, those who lost their jobs had to conclude that it was their own fault. Self-blame and self-doubt became epidemic. These attitudes declined after the New Deal began, however. The establishment of government programs to counteract the depression indicated to many of the unemployed that the crisis was a large social problem, not a matter of personal failing. Still, having to ask for assistance was humiliating for many men who had thought of themselves as self-sufficient and breadwinners for their families.

Because society expected a man to provide for his family, the psychological trauma of the Great Depression was often more severe for men than women. Many men argued that women, especially married women, should not be hired while men were unemployed. Yet the percentage of women in the workforce actually increased slightly during the depression, as women took jobs to replace their husbands’ lost pay checks or to supplement spouses’ reduced wages. Women had been excluded from most of the manufacturing jobs that were hardest hit by the depression, which meant they were less likely than men to be thrown out of work. Some fields that had been defined as women’s work, such as clerical, teaching, and social-service jobs, actually grew during the New Deal.

The effects of the depression on children were often radically different from the impact on their parents. During the depression many children took on greater responsibilities at an earlier age than later generations would. Some teenagers found jobs when their parents could not, reversing the normal roles of provider and dependent. Sometimes children had to comfort their despairing parents. A 12-year-old boy in Chicago, for example, wrote to President and Mrs. Roosevelt in 1936 to seek help for his father, who was always “crying because he can’t find work [and] I feel sorry for him.” The depression that weakened the self-reliance of many adult men strengthened that quality in many children.

The depression’s impact was less dramatic, but ultimately more damaging, for minorities in America than for whites. Since they were “born in depression,” many blacks scarcely noticed a change at the beginning of the 1930s. Over time, however, blacks suffered to an even greater extent than whites, since they were usually the last hired and first fired. By 1932 about 50 percent of the nation’s black workers were unemployed. Blacks were frequently forced out of jobs in order to give them to unemployed whites.

Yet the depression decade was one of important positive change for blacks. First lady Eleanor Roosevelt and several leading New Deal figures were active champions of black rights, and most New Deal programs prohibited racial discrimination. These rules were often ignored in the South, but the fact that they were included at all was a major step forward. Blacks were sufficiently impressed with the New Deal to cause a large majority of black voters to switch their allegiance from the Republican to the Democratic Party during the depression years. See also African American History.

Other minority populations had experiences similar to those of blacks during the depression. Native Americans were even less likely than blacks to notice a downturn when the depression began; they already fared poorly by virtually every social or economic indicator. But Native Americans, like blacks, were brought into New Deal relief programs that in theory did not discriminate, and an attempt was made, through the Indian Reorganization Act, to enable tribes to reestablish their identities and cultural practices. In industrial cities such as Detroit, Gary, and Los Angeles and in agricultural regions such as California’s San Joaquin Valley, Mexican Americans were seen as holding jobs that should go to whites. Repatriation (meaning deportation) programs were instituted to persuade Chicanos to return to Mexico, often through intimidation.

Groups of white Americans also faced discrimination during this era. Poor farmers evicted from their land or fleeing the Dust Bowl were often despised and abused when they arrived in California and other western states. They were commonly labeled “Okies,” whether they came from Oklahoma or other states.

VIII. End of the Depression

Although economic conditions improved by the late 1930s, unemployment in 1939 was still about 15 percent. However, with the outbreak of World War II in Europe in September 1939, the U.S. government began expanding the national defense system, spending large amounts of money to produce ships, aircraft, weapons, and other war material. This stimulated industrial growth, and unemployment declined rapidly. After the United States entered the war in December 1941, all sectors of the economy were mobilized to support the war effort. Industry greatly expanded, and unemployment was replaced by a shortage of workers.

IX. Legacy of the Depression

The impact of the Great Depression and the programs of the New Deal dramatically altered the relationship between the American people and their government. The federal government expanded its role in many social and economic areas, becoming larger and more powerful. Americans came to accept government involvement and responsibility in caring for society’s most needy members and regulating many aspects of the economy.

The New Deal’s social programs reflected a shift in American values created by the shared hardships of the depression era. The depression experience discredited the extreme individualism and pursuit of self-interest that characterized the 1920s, and revived an emphasis on community, cooperation, and compassion. These values were reflected in the popular culture of the day and in political and labor movements that developed and expanded during the 1930s.

One of the most far-reaching New Deal measures, the Social Security Act of 1935, guaranteed government help to citizens who were unemployed or disabled, to older Americans, and to mothers and children. The National Labor Relations Act (1935) provided protection for union activity, which contributed to the rise of labor unions in mass-production industries such as steel and automobile manufacturing. Unions and racial minorities, who had benefited from the New Deal, were among the groups who became staunch supporters of the Democratic Party, changing American politics for decades to come.

The literature, films, and art of the depression era demonstrated the desire for a more cooperative, less fiercely competitive way of life. Many celebrated the common people, who were contrasted with greedy, powerful interests. Examples included films such as Mr. Smith Goes to Washington (1939), directed by Frank Capra, and Stagecoach (1939), by John Ford; paintings by Norman Rockwell; songs by folk singer Woody Guthrie; and novels by such writers as John Steinbeck.

While many conservatives believed the New Deal was turning the United States toward socialism, other Americans felt it did not go far enough and sought more revolutionary change. Political movements to the left of the New Deal enjoyed considerable support during the 1930s. Among them were the Minnesota Farmer-Labor Party, which offered radical proposals challenging the capitalist system, and the unsuccessful campaign by novelist Upton Sinclair to be governor of California in 1934, proposing essentially socialist programs to “End Poverty in California.” By alleviating some of the worst effects of the depression, the New Deal helped defuse tensions and preserve a democratic, capitalist system at a time when other nations turned to fascism or socialism.

The return of prosperity during and after World War II revived some of the forces that divided society and promoted self-interest in the 1920s. But the experience of the Great Depression left a lasting mark on the United States in the forms of a much greater role for the federal government, a new political alignment in which Democrats would retain the support of a majority for most of the next half century, and a general feeling that the free market must be regulated in order to avoid another such economic catastrophe.

Contributed By:
Robert S. McElvaine, B.A., M.A., Ph.D.
Elizabeth Chisholm Professor of Arts and Letters and Chair of the Department of History, Millsaps College, Mississippi. Author of The Great Depression: America, 1929-1941.
"Great Depression in the United States," Microsoft® Encarta® Online Encyclopedia 2008
http://encarta.msn.com © 1997-2008 Microsoft Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
© 1993-2008 Microsoft Corporation. All Rights Reserved.


OK, at what point does this thing get a little eerie? OK, I'll agree it's not a carbon-copy of today. But it's Close. The Past is Prologue, folks. Get ready.

729 comments:

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IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Lead business story in The Bulletin today?

Coyotes on Awbrey Butte

That there is hard hitting journalism.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Les Schwab cuts 25 at HQ; Bright Wood lays off 60

Posted: Jan 23, 2009 04:57 PM

Madras-Redmond wood products firm hopes to rehire

By Barney Lerten, KTVZ.COM

Central Oregon's economy was dealt two more sizable blows Friday, as Les Schwab Tire Centers cut 25 jobs from its new headquarters at Bend's Juniper Ridge, and Bright Wood Corp. confirmed 60 layoffs from its Madras and Redmond plants.

Les Schwab Tires issued a brief statement announcing "it will be eliminating 25 positions from the company's headquarters," less a month after it announced 27 workers were cut at its Prineville facilities.

"The downturn in the U.S. economy has impacted retailers throughout the country," said Jodie Hueske, Les Schwab's vice president for human resources," and Les Schwab has been working hard to reduce costs in all areas of our business."

"Reducing positions is a very difficult decision but is necessary to ensure our operations are consistent with current business conditions," Hueske added.

Meanwhile Bright Wood Corp. is laying off 60 workers in Redmond and Madras and cutting hours for others as the building slump continues to hit hard, company President Dallas Stovall said Friday.

About 80 percent of the layoffs that began last week and conclude next week are at the company's Madras plant, and the other 20 percent at its Redmond facilities, Stovall said.

That's less than 10 percent of the 760 workers the company had earlier this month, but is still very painful, said the president of the family-owned company that turns 50 in 2010.

There had been a slow shedding of jobs over the past year, as Bright Wood had 1,050 workers in February of 2008 at its plants that make window and door components, as well as molding and millwork products - all businesses hard hit by the housing slump.

Still, Stovall said the firm "made money last year" - by "matching crew sizes with orders" - but so far, 2009 is off to a very rocky start.

"We got through December pretty well, but after the first of the year, business absolutely collapsed," Stovall said. "Everybody scrambled to keep inventories down."

Other Bright Wood workers also are seeing work hours cut due to the business slowdown.

"I don't think I'll get the bulk of my people 40 (hours) a week, maybe down to 32 a week in most plants," he said. "We're just trying to keep as many people working as we possibly can."

"We'll get through the first quarter and see where we're at - once the weather breaks, hopefully things will pick up. We're trying to keep the highest-skilled people in place, so if we do have to ramp up, we're ready."

"We'll put people back on over the course of the summer, here and there, but this thing is going to drag out," he said.

And Stovall is no fan of the new president's bailout plans.

"I'm not a big fan of the bailout," he said. "I think it's a waste of money. What they need to do is cut taxes, get money in the private sector and change a few banking rules. History's proven it - what these guys is doing is only going to make it worse."

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Job-loss plague infects Oregon
by Richard Read and Laura Gunderson, The Oregonian
Saturday January 24, 2009, 9:40 PM

Layoff announcements reverberated like bomb blasts across Oregon this month.

A thousand at Intel. Up to 1,000 at Oregon Health & Science University. More at Harry & David, Xerox, Mercy Corps, Medical Teams International, Precision Castparts, Hollywood Entertainment, Daimler Trucks North America and others.

And that's on top of 174,000 Oregonians -- double the entire population of a city such as Gresham or Beaverton -- who were jobless at the end of December.

The worst recession in three decades slammed the state, rocketing unemployment to 9 percent -- among the nation's highest. Economists predict double-digit unemployment this year.

The numbers are shocking, but they fail to reflect the pain and fear of job seekers whose families, homes and health benefits hang in the balance. Laid-off workers describe swings from optimism to anger, elation to denial or isolation to depression.

"Because we identify with our jobs so highly, unemployment is right up there with death and divorce for a lot of folks," says Peter Paskill, a 28-year career counselor in Tualatin. "We sit at home sending out resumes that look like obituaries into the electronic black hole."

Last week, The Oregonian interviewed job seekers at various stages along unemployment's roller coaster. They describe a desperate job market. When Office Ally held a hiring event for 30 call-center jobs in Vancouver, 800 people showed up.

Julia Losli, a 55-year-old contractor and mortgage processor, watched a Lake Oswego spec house she marketed plummet from a $795,000 asking price to a $429,000 short sale. Losli, unemployed for the first time, has struggled for eight months to find work.

"I had moments that were really depressing," says Losli, who started training last week to process loans on commission -- a position without health benefits. "That was the weirdest blow, when I lost my health insurance, because I've never not had it."

Jason Johnson, a 35-year-old who's been job hunting for nearly two years, moved out of a duplex and into his parents' Vancouver home. The former Daimler assembly worker still drives his Escalade, a status symbol worth less than his car payments. His 7-year-old son asks why he can't have any new video games.

"He used to be spoiled before," Johnson says, "but he can't be now."

For Johnson, the happy ending may have arrived Friday when he started training for a security job at Portland International Airport.


-- Richard Read: richread@aol.com

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Ahhhh... Young Butt Love. Bye Bye Sam Adams...

Beau Breedlove tells of his romance as a 17-year-old with Sam Adams
by Brent Walth, Anna Griffin and Ryan Frank, The Oregonian
Sunday January 25, 2009, 12:02 AM

The former legislative intern at the center of the controversy involving Portland Mayor Sam Adams says Adams kissed him twice when he was 17 and that their relationship had "crossed the line" toward romance earlier than Adams has acknowledged.

Beau Breedlove, now 21, told The Oregonian on Saturday that Adams kissed him on the lips on two occasions before he turned 18 -- once in Adams' car and the other in the second-floor men's room in City Hall after a party that Adams, then a city commissioner, had in his office.

Anonymous said...

ou fuckers talk about 'reserves', and 'general fund', and that Bend don't MATTER, but remember KUNTS we're BEND, I know you would rather talk about AIPAC, or bruce's pussy, or anything BUTT debating Bend. The two things that will sink Bend is writing COD bets to get cash, and defaulting on all the fucking Muni-Bond debt the city has taken on to give MILLIONS to boss-hoggs. That interest MUST be paid, but can't be paid, and thus the city will default.

Vallejo, CA is just 100k people, slightly bigger than BEND, and they went down with almost $300M in muni-debt, how in the fuck? Can a city borrow so much fucking money for pet projects?? Will they did and so did Bend, like our round-abouts, ... all to keep Knife-River busy-busy.


***

Muni Bond Default Parade Plays On
Jack Colombo, 01.15.09, 05:30 PM EST
Distress continues to bedevil the muni bond market, and the rest of the year looks even tougher.

To look at current municipal default statistics, your first reaction might be that we have erroneously displayed the corporate defaults for 2008. However, 2008 would have been a record year even without Jefferson County, Ala., and its $3.8 billion sewer bond issue default. The town of Vallejo, Calif., added $280 million as it became the first municipal Chapter 9 bankruptcy in over a decade that affects bondholders.

Other notable 2008 defaults were the Las Vegas monorail issue ($451 million) and a $709 million issue whose only collateral was a gas supply agreement with Lehman Brothers (nyse: LEHMQ - news - people ), which filed bankruptcy six months after the deal was made.


Municipal and corporate bond defaults are rising but this could spell opportunity for huge profits by bold investors. Click here for guidance in Distressed Debt Securities newsletter.

While housing-related issues are always a principal source of defaults, at least in numbers, 2008 proved to be a bumper year, with 62 issues totaling $1.2 billion. That's more than the total for all defaults in either of the last two years. The outlook for 2009 is for even worse to come, at least in terms of numbers of defaults.

The wave of defaults in housing-related issues in California and Florida can be expected to accelerate. Expect further defaults by small municipalities in California and elsewhere. Also vulnerable are sales tax dependent issues everywhere and "feel good" projects that depend on private or public support. The latter are vulnerable to the weak economy and, in the case of ethanol projects, a change in the underlying economics.

The federal government may well step in to provide indirect support to the states through municipal bond guarantees for issuers who otherwise couldn't sell more debt, which may postpone into future years some of the grief building up. However, no such help will be coming for the thousands of bond issues backed by corporate sponsors or a home builder with empty lots and incomplete infrastructures.

Special Offer: Banks are issuing preferred stock with yields of 10% and higher. Nice yields, but don't get suckered into buying bad paper. Click here for Forbes-Lehmann Income Securities Investor.
Comment On This Story

Not helping is the cloud still hanging over the bond insurers. Their ability to provide coverage for new issues is in doubt, as is their ability to backstop deals previously insured and now in trouble. All in all, it looks like a busy year for this newsletter.

While municipal defaults broke all-time records in 2008, they pale in comparison to the massive volume of corporate defaults. The total of $157.56 billion easily broke the previous record year of 2002 when $107.9 billion in defaults was recorded, although that took 93 defaults. Setting aside the $127.5 billion contribution by the Lehmann Brothers default, the total for the year would still have made it the third largest year on record. While 2009 looks like it may challenge 2002 in terms of the number of defaults, we probably will not see a new dollar record even if General Motors (nyse: GM - news - people ) files a pre-packaged bankruptcy.

January 25, 2009 7:08 AM
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Vallejo, CA is just 100k people, slightly bigger than BEND, and they went down with almost $300M in muni-debt, how in the fuck? Can a city borrow so much fucking money for pet projects?? Will they did and so did Bend, like our round-abouts, ... all to keep Knife-River busy-busy.

Here people like BEM&DUNC say its the dipping into 'reserves' and chicken's, in Vallejo 'They' blamed it on paying the cops too much, like Bend the city is composed of PRO LIARS ( dunc&bem ), but the truth is what sent Vallejo-Ca into the toilet was $300M in DEBT, and Bend is close to the same shit hole, and everybody ignores it, because then they would have to ask "Where did the 100's of millions go?".

January 25, 2009 7:13 AM
Anonymous Anonymous said...

We know $5M went to the BULLetin. Imagine that who would have guessed?? I wonder if that has anything to do with the fraud?

January 25, 2009 7:14 AM
Blogger MrBruce said...

Bend is a tiny little pimple on the ass of this thing. Amateur hour at best. - lava, the pussy brain

###

Yes, lava change the subject, point to somebody with bigger problems, how very APOLOGIST of you.

The BPUSSY is an apologist for the city, you are, dunc is, bem is, tim, every fucking one of you KUNTS is an apologist. You say they are 'stupid', like Hank say's the its bruce that's stupid, these people have pocketed millions of dollars of CASH, on deals that had NOTHING to do with real-estate, and that ain't stupid.

Bend ain't amateur hour. We're #1 in appreciation for four fucking years 2004-2007 in a row, that didn't happen by dumb fucking luck, it was engineered by COVA. Why in the fuck do you think that BEND PR&MARKETING just got GOLD for 'branding'. Bend is a fucking Brand.

So this late in the hour we hear...

1.) They're amateurs,
2.) They're stupid,
3.) They're chickens in the pot, ...

All fucking BULLSHIT, this town is a MOB town, this town is ran by PROFESSIONAL CROOKS, and HOLLERN brought them ALL in post 1960's after he came. Not to say that HOLLERN had to do any 'theft' as he owned the town, but filling the town full of 'pros' insured continual bubbles and lots of fraud, and deceit. Then post 1990 they brought in dozens of the 1031 boyz who setup shop and did BEND-MADEOFF, the biggest fucking 1031 ORG in the PNW.

The ONLY fucking reason that Vegas, &PHX are bigger storys than BEND, is that they have already gone down, and Bend hasn't even started going down.

Lava is a dick-head apologist pussy. I have lost all fucking respect.

January 25, 2009 7:22 AM
Delete
Blogger MrBruce said...

Loving the multiple Bruces and HBM's these days. AIPAC is always great, BTW Mark Neuman, Brian Stevens, Lane Lyons and I had a bonfire today with hundred dollar bills, they burn surprisngly well we drank a shitload of PBR's too. He said the money ain't goin to the Jews. - st-paddy


###

Of course the money isn't going to the Jews, the Jews have NOTHING to do with AIPAC.

AIPAC is MOB going all the way back to the 1920's setup by Walter Annenberg. They made a movie about this mob, it was called "Once upon a time in America".

S-1031 was a Zionist ( christian zion ministry front ), but it had NOTHING to do with money going to Jews.

January 25, 2009 7:29 AM
Delete
Anonymous Anonymous said...

>>>Cascade Bancorp $67.4 million Applying for TARP.

Just so I'm straight...above you said "got $60M" and now you are saying applied for? I'd hate for you to just be making shit up that isn't true or stretching the truth to suit your theories.


*

Let's get this straight, your saying BEM is right, then on that basis MOSS would have spent the $60M before she even got her TARP lottery check, applying for the TARP, is just as good as booking it as a recievable.

Why do you KUNTS want to have it both ways? BEM pulls a straw-man ( lotter winner ) out of his ass, but MOSS just won the lottery by application.

BUTT, now this is where it gets interesting, ... given that MOSS has a TEXAS-RATIO of over 30, is it too late to feed the dead?? Butt USING BEM logic, I can guarantee you all, that MOSS spent the $60M the day she applied for the TARP(CARP).

January 25, 2009 7:51 AM
Blogger MrBruce said...

Ok guys don't ask me why I've wasted my time sifting through the clerks recordings, but here goes:

From 1/01/09 to 1/23/09 we have had 84 induvidual properties deeded back to the banks in lieu of foreclosure, some of these were multiples on a single filing but again because I have so much time to waste I counted each induvidual tax lot and or seperate property that was deeded back. Some of these single parcels I counted as one were actually development parcels that haven't been split yet, so there lies many more potential lots for the future.

***

St-Paddy, Just dump all the data. Why do you fucking KUNTS talk about the shit, and then sit on the SHIT, dumb what you found here and let other peruse, and between us all maybe something will be made of it.

Often when you mix shit & morons, you can get more shit & morons.

January 25, 2009 7:52 AM
Delete
Blogger MrBruce said...

They'd rather spend money on Juniper Ridge and Bend buses than basic fire, police and road services.
- dunc pussy

###

The people who have to beg on their knees for campaign cash ( not Eckman, as hubby pays ), have to pay back the master. That be Knife-River. Thus the gig in city hall to insure your political career is to perpetually create giant mega $10M or more public works projects, that you can borrow MUNI Debt.

Running for office is about collecting taxes, and paying for cops and firemen. That is a fucking myth.

Running for office is about borrowing 100's of millions of MUNI debt, and seeing that the majority of that money funnels back to your sponsor.

January 25, 2009 7:57 AM
Delete
Anonymous Anonymous said...

On the note of MOSS & AIPAC, one of the major nationwide fronts of AIPAC is called 'xxx good government', if you do a search on contributions, you'll see that MOSS gave $2k to 'xxx good government'.

January 25, 2009 7:59 AM
Blogger MrBruce said...

Apology rules this town.

Even in Vallejo, CA the media blames to this day to the public that the reason for BK is that city-hall over-paid the cops.

When in fact the reason for the BK, is that the city with $300M in muni-debt got to the point where the teeter-totter had more on the interest payment side, than the service side, but the media doesn't want to talk about that. But if you google 'city muni default' you can find its a big story on wall-st, where all the muni is written. But on main-street its top-secret.

Pay no attention to any of this, there is only ONE brain in BEND, there are no elections, and for all time collectively everybody in city-hall and city-staff had one goal, to increase the population from 100k to 200k to 1M.

That is a big fucking LIE.

Not everyone in BEND has the same goals. The city is made of up of dozen's of boss-hoggs all trying to keep their own pig trough full of pork.

HBM & COSTA would like nothing more than the history of Bend to say that collective hysteria is why we went BK. That is the BIG LIE.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Oregon Latinos hit hard by recession
by Gosia Wozniacka, The Oregonian
Saturday January 24, 2009, 5:51 PM


The national recession obliterating jobs in Oregon nurseries, construction sites and manufacturing facilities is hitting Latinos harder than any other group, primarily because they face distinct challenges that most people in the U.S. don't.

As a group, native and foreign-born Latinos often lack a financial cushion to sustain them in hard economic times, studies and data show. They tend to earn less and they financially support families in Latin America....

Anonymous said...

Apology rules this town.

Even in Vallejo, CA the media blames to this day to the public that the reason for BK is that city-hall over-paid the cops.

When in fact the reason for the BK, is that the city with $300M in muni-debt got to the point where the teeter-totter had more on the interest payment side, than the service side, but the media doesn't want to talk about that. But if you google 'city muni default' you can find its a big story on wall-st, where all the muni is written. But on main-street its top-secret.

Pay no attention to any of this, there is only ONE brain in BEND, there are no elections, and for all time collectively everybody in city-hall and city-staff had one goal, to increase the population from 100k to 200k to 1M.

That is a big fucking LIE.

Not everyone in BEND has the same goals. The city is made of up of dozen's of boss-hoggs all trying to keep their own pig trough full of pork.

HBM & COSTA would like nothing more than the history of Bend to say that collective hysteria is why we went BK. That is the BIG LIE.

MrBruce said...

>>>Cascade Bancorp $67.4 million Applying for TARP.

Just so I'm straight...above you said "got $60M" and now you are saying applied for? I'd hate for you to just be making shit up that isn't true or stretching the truth to suit your theories. - lava


*

Let's get this straight, your saying BEM is right, then on that basis MOSS would have spent the $60M before she even got her TARP lottery check, applying for the TARP, is just as good as booking it as a recievable.

Why do you KUNTS want to have it both ways? BEM pulls a straw-man ( lotter winner ) out of his ass, but MOSS just won the lottery by application.

BUTT, now this is where it gets interesting, ... given that MOSS has a TEXAS-RATIO of over 30, is it too late to feed the dead?? Butt USING BEM logic, I can guarantee you all, that MOSS spent the $60M the day she applied for the TARP(CARP).

MrBruce said...

Bend is a tiny little pimple on the ass of this thing. Amateur hour at best. - lava, the pussy brain

###

Yes, lava change the subject, point to somebody with bigger problems, how very APOLOGIST of you.

The BPUSSY is an apologist for the city, you are, dunc is, bem is, tim, every fucking one of you KUNTS is an apologist. You say they are 'stupid', like Hank say's the its bruce that's stupid, these people have pocketed millions of dollars of CASH, on deals that had NOTHING to do with real-estate, and that ain't stupid.

Bend ain't amateur hour. We're #1 in appreciation for four fucking years 2004-2007 in a row, that didn't happen by dumb fucking luck, it was engineered by COVA. Why in the fuck do you think that BEND PR&MARKETING just got GOLD for 'branding'. Bend is a fucking Brand.

So this late in the hour we hear...

1.) They're amateurs,
2.) They're stupid,
3.) They're chickens in the pot, ...

All fucking BULLSHIT, this town is a MOB town, this town is ran by PROFESSIONAL CROOKS, and HOLLERN brought them ALL in post 1960's after he came. Not to say that HOLLERN had to do any 'theft' as he owned the town, but filling the town full of 'pros' insured continual bubbles and lots of fraud, and deceit. Then post 1990 they brought in dozens of the 1031 boyz who setup shop and did BEND-MADEOFF, the biggest fucking 1031 ORG in the PNW.

The ONLY fucking reason that Vegas, &PHX are bigger storys than BEND, is that they have already gone down, and Bend hasn't even started going down.

Lava is a dick-head apologist pussy. I have lost all fucking respect.

MrBruce said...

Vallejo, CA is just 100k people, slightly bigger than BEND, and they went down with almost $300M in muni-debt, how in the fuck? Can a city borrow so much fucking money for pet projects?? Will they did and so did Bend, like our round-abouts, ... all to keep Knife-River busy-busy.

Here people like BEM&DUNC say its the dipping into 'reserves' and chicken's, in Vallejo 'They' blamed it on paying the cops too much, like Bend the city is composed of PRO LIARS ( dunc&bem ), but the truth is what sent Vallejo-Ca into the toilet was $300M in DEBT, and Bend is close to the same shit hole, and everybody ignores it, because then they would have to ask "Where did the 100's of millions go?".

...

We know $5M went to the BULLetin. Imagine that who would have guessed?? I wonder if that has anything to do with the fraud?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Bend: Best 3rd World City Ever!

Immigrants aren't leaving, despite harder times in U.S.

There may be a tipping point in the decision-making of immigrants such as Maria and Zenon, Papademetriou said.

"At which point are horrible conditions over there better than the horrible conditions here?" he said. "If you have to live on the margins, with no income, in a place where people don't want you and don't help you, there is only so much time you can move in with relatives and tighten your belt before you hit bare bones."

If the recession continues for six to nine months, Papademetriou said, and if the recovery is "jobless," undocumented Latinos may reconsider. But the decision to return to poverty in Latin America would still be agonizing, especially in light of the potential for U.S. immigration reform.

"The deck is stacked and they are stuck," Papademetriou said. "The question is, which gives first, the economy, Mr. Obama with legalization, or a realization that I can't survive anymore."

Anonymous said...

Yes, HOMER watch PDX, BEND #1 feeder market just got bitch slapped by golden high-tech.

Expect another 10k BEND homes to default from these layoff's alone.

Second homes and PDX high-tech is like BP&condoms.

Anonymous said...

You fuckers talk about 'reserves', and 'general fund', and that Bend don't MATTER, but remember KUNTS we're BEND, I know you would rather talk about AIPAC, or bruce's pussy, or anything BUTT debating Bend. The two things that will sink Bend is writing COD bets to get cash, and defaulting on all the fucking Muni-Bond debt the city has taken on to give MILLIONS to boss-hoggs. That interest MUST be paid, but can't be paid, and thus the city will default.

Vallejo, CA is just 100k people, slightly bigger than BEND, and they went down with almost $300M in muni-debt, how in the fuck? Can a city borrow so much fucking money for pet projects?? Will they did and so did Bend, like our round-abouts, ... all to keep Knife-River busy-busy.


***

Muni Bond Default Parade Plays On
Jack Colombo, 01.15.09, 05:30 PM EST
Distress continues to bedevil the muni bond market, and the rest of the year looks even tougher.

To look at current municipal default statistics, your first reaction might be that we have erroneously displayed the corporate defaults for 2008. However, 2008 would have been a record year even without Jefferson County, Ala., and its $3.8 billion sewer bond issue default. The town of Vallejo, Calif., added $280 million as it became the first municipal Chapter 9 bankruptcy in over a decade that affects bondholders.

Other notable 2008 defaults were the Las Vegas monorail issue ($451 million) and a $709 million issue whose only collateral was a gas supply agreement with Lehman Brothers (nyse: LEHMQ - news - people ), which filed bankruptcy six months after the deal was made.


Municipal and corporate bond defaults are rising but this could spell opportunity for huge profits by bold investors. Click here for guidance in Distressed Debt Securities newsletter.

While housing-related issues are always a principal source of defaults, at least in numbers, 2008 proved to be a bumper year, with 62 issues totaling $1.2 billion. That's more than the total for all defaults in either of the last two years. The outlook for 2009 is for even worse to come, at least in terms of numbers of defaults.

The wave of defaults in housing-related issues in California and Florida can be expected to accelerate. Expect further defaults by small municipalities in California and elsewhere. Also vulnerable are sales tax dependent issues everywhere and "feel good" projects that depend on private or public support. The latter are vulnerable to the weak economy and, in the case of ethanol projects, a change in the underlying economics.

The federal government may well step in to provide indirect support to the states through municipal bond guarantees for issuers who otherwise couldn't sell more debt, which may postpone into future years some of the grief building up. However, no such help will be coming for the thousands of bond issues backed by corporate sponsors or a home builder with empty lots and incomplete infrastructures.

Special Offer: Banks are issuing preferred stock with yields of 10% and higher. Nice yields, but don't get suckered into buying bad paper. Click here for Forbes-Lehmann Income Securities Investor.
Comment On This Story

Not helping is the cloud still hanging over the bond insurers. Their ability to provide coverage for new issues is in doubt, as is their ability to backstop deals previously insured and now in trouble. All in all, it looks like a busy year for this newsletter.

While municipal defaults broke all-time records in 2008, they pale in comparison to the massive volume of corporate defaults. The total of $157.56 billion easily broke the previous record year of 2002 when $107.9 billion in defaults was recorded, although that took 93 defaults. Setting aside the $127.5 billion contribution by the Lehmann Brothers default, the total for the year would still have made it the third largest year on record. While 2009 looks like it may challenge 2002 in terms of the number of defaults, we probably will not see a new dollar record even if General Motors (nyse: GM - news - people ) files a pre-packaged bankruptcy.

Anonymous said...

Bend: Best 3rd World City Ever!

*

Compared to Tijuana, Bend ain't that bad.

Fact.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The Final Leg, Tech, is gone...

Intel closing plant, costing Hillsboro 1,000 jobs
by Mike Rogoway, The Oregonian
Wednesday January 21, 2009, 10:31 PM

Intel will close an aging computer chip factory in Hillsboro late this year, eliminating 1,000 positions as it ratchets back production in response to a spectacular decline in sales.

The 12-year-old facility, known as Fab 20, is one of five sites worldwide that Intel will shutter in 2009. As many as 6,000 workers will lose their jobs globally, about 7 percent of Intel's total work force.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

So.... how's a bout an over/under pool on Bend's UNADJUSTED December unemployment?

My guess is 11.4%.

Anonymous said...

Ahhhh... Young Butt Love. Bye Bye Sam Adams...

*

So was it bend's guitar breedlove??

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Compared to Tijuana, Bend ain't that bad.

Wow. That is a ringing endorsement Folks!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Go look at the coments on that Intel story... ALREADY talking protectionism:

Posted by PEARLJAM550 on 01/22/09 at 5:28AM

does anyone know if we manufactured all that we use and buy, on a daily basis, was made only in the usa,if it would turn this country around?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Anyone got a copy/paste on this Bulletin nugg?

Median home price falls 38% in California

January 25, 2009 4:00 am

The median home price in California plummeted 38 percent in December from a year earlier as low-....MORE

LavaBear said...

>>>Lava is a dick-head apologist pussy. I have lost all fucking respect.


I'm pretty sure that I called you an apologist for making up your conspiracy theories as to what they do. I don't give them near that much credit. You give them super genius fraud plots. I give them barely amoeba level intelligence as every crook from far and wide rips them off.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

marge? You there? How do the numbers look so far this month?

LavaBear said...

>>>
Let's get this straight, your saying BEM is right, then on that basis MOSS would have spent the $60M before she even got her TARP lottery check, applying for the TARP, is just as good as booking it as a recievable.


There you go. That is a great point and worth watching.

>>>given that MOSS has a TEXAS-RATIO of over 30, is it too late to feed the dead?


And that is why I pulled the TARP data to see if they were included in the latest funding. Seems like they SHOULD of given it was mostly to smaller banks. But they weren't and Umpqua has gotten theirs.

Anonymous said...

>>St-Paddy, Just dump all the data. Why do you fucking KUNTS talk about the shit, and then sit on the SHIT, dumb what you found here and let other peruse, and between us all maybe something will be made of it.<<

I explained how to do it above,
again:

go to :

http://recordings.co.deschutes.or.us/search.asp

type in the year, upper left corner of screen

open search field "deed"

under last name put %bank%

press search button

peruse til your heart is content buddy.


Hey Bruce, your stalker is a lazy fucker.







SP

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

WTF? This is a piece in todays Bull, about those POOR BUILDERS getting FORECLOSED ON despite having a "PERFECT RECORD".

Ummmm... You CAN'T FORECLOSE on someone who has NOT MISSED A PAYMENT, right?

Oh yes... Bull so PRO-BUILDER they have chosen to ignore ALL REALITY. These aren't FORECLOSURES, they are simply reeled in credit lines. Good job COSTA.

Foreclosing on builders with perfect records
They’ve never missed an interest payment, but large numbers of small-time builders, a group that accounts for 70 percent of new-home construction, are being shut out by banks anyway

January 25, 2009 4:00 am

TEMPE, Ariz. — Dave Brown, one of this city’s best-known homebuilders, had kept his...

LavaBear said...

Compared to Burns, Bend ain't that bad!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

http://recordings.co.deschutes.or.us/search.asp

Wow... Umpqua was involved with about every dumbshit project in town! The Shire, Tuscany Buttplugs, The Plaza...

Marge said...

>>>marge? You there? How do the numbers look so far this month?<<<


As of Saturday Bend...Residential

41 homes sold at $225,000 median.

We are on target of selling about 60 this month. The median last year was $293k.

LavaBear said...

The Aftermath of Financial Crises

That is an interesting paper written by two Harvard Economists.


"Broadly speaking, financial crises are protracted affairs. More often than not, the
aftermath of severe financial crises share three characteristics. First, asset market
collapses are deep and prolonged. Real housing price declines average 35 percent
stretched out over six years, while equity price collapses average 55 percent over a
downturn of about three and a half years. Second, the aftermath of banking crises is
associated with profound declines in output and employment. The unemployment rate
rises an average of 7 percentage points over the down phase of the cycle, which lasts on
average over four years. Output falls (from peak to trough) an average of over 9 percent,
although the duration of the downturn, averaging roughly two years, is considerably
shorter than for unemployment. Third, the real value of government debt tends to
explode, rising an average of 86 percent in the major post–World War II episodes.
Interestingly, the main cause of debt explosions is not the widely cited costs of bailing
out and recapitalizing the banking system. Admittedly, bailout costs are difficult to
measure, and there is considerable divergence among estimates from competing studies.
But even upper-bound estimates pale next to actual measured rises in public debt. In
fact, the big drivers of debt increases are the inevitable collapse in tax revenues that
governments suffer in the wake of deep and prolonged output contractions, as well as
often ambitious countercyclical fiscal policies aimed at mitigating the downturn."

Anonymous said...

"Ummmm... You CAN'T FORECLOSE on someone who has NOT MISSED A PAYMENT, right?

Oh yes... Bull so PRO-BUILDER they have chosen to ignore ALL REALITY. These aren't FORECLOSURES, they are simply reeled in credit lines. Good job COSTA."

Many of these are covenant defaults based upon new appraisals. Most banks must re-appraise collateral at least every 12 months, or sometimes less is market conditions are in a tail-spin (like now). The builders may be keeping their interest payments current but they are not comming up with the re-margin funds to bring the loan back to 75% LTV. On A&D and land loans, if the collateral exceeds 75%/60% LTV then the bank must downgrade the credit and set-aside more loan loss reserves which means, less net income.

hbm said...

The top news stories in Bend on Sunday, Jan. 25, 2009, according to The Bulletin's web site:

"A healthy child grows increasingly ill"

"Grandchild phone scam nearly nets Bend woman"

"Fasten-ating art: Sunriver woman’s creativity gets teeth after receiving mass mailing of hundreds of zippers"

"Woman's weeds in Bend spur action in Salem"

"Pet owners, watch for coyotes"

Anonymous said...

I used to live in a house owned by Portlanders. Yeah, it's defaulting. These people thought they were going to get rich. Word has been going out through Portland and Lake Oswego that Bend is death.

Bend is going to be blamed and hated in Portland for a generation.

Duncan McGeary said...

"Wow... Umpqua was involved with about every dumbshit project in town! The Shire, Tuscany Buttplugs, The Plaza..."

How about their 'boutique' bank at Northwest Crossing?

They really got sucked in...

Anonymous said...

Coyotes on Awbrey.

And letter to the editor says you're weak if you can't stop masturbating.

Hell of a paper.

Anonymous said...

>>How about their 'boutique' bank at Northwest Crossing?

Yeah, that makes no sense to me at all. WTF is it doing there?

(word verification: mount)

Anonymous said...

I'm pretty sure that I called you an apologist for making up your conspiracy theories as to what they do. I don't give them near that much credit.

*

Conspiracy requires secrecy. If you get off your lazy ass and analyze Bend's MUNI DEBT ( A PUBLIC RECORD ), you'll see that we don't have enough revenue to cover interest debt, once Volcker takes over, and starts making us pay for our money.

Sure the 'geni-asses' could have pulled off this PONZI had bend grown and grown, and everybody including BEM could have won the lotter also, but lets not forget that buying a lottery ticket is a fools game.

Anonymous said...

>>>given that MOSS has a TEXAS-RATIO of over 30, is it too late to feed the dead?


And that is why I pulled the TARP data to see if they were included in the latest funding. Seems like they SHOULD of given it was mostly to smaller banks. But they weren't and Umpqua has gotten theirs.

- lava

***

Ok, I'll quit being HARD-ON for you, now your getting IT.

CACB ain't getting no CARP, cuz they're going DOWN and hard.

Anybody want to place bets otherwise?? That said, given that BEM's theory of BEND is said to be BEND GOSPEL, then MOSS did spend the money back when she applied, per the BEM rule that idiots always spend money they think they're going to get before they get it.


Maybe this is why she pulled the plug on MERENDA post xmas, maybe by then she knew CARP wasn't coming?

hbm said...

Bend is going to be blamed and hated in Portland for a generation.

True story: I was walking along Wall Street one summer day in 2006 when a couple came up to me, identified themselves as psychiatrists from Portland, said they were looking to buy 10 houses in Bend and asked me where they should buy them. Me, a complete stranger.

I told them, "Prineville."

The Portlanders who bought here during the bubble have nobody but themselves to blame for being so fucking stupid.

Anonymous said...

And letter to the editor says you're weak if you can't stop masturbating.

*

Just had that conversation with my wife yesterday, "Why do you masturbate so much".

Well maybe if I got a little pussy I wouldn't masturbate so much.

I think that masturbation and Bend is like cali & sunshine.

Want to fix Bend? A masturbation tax.

hbm said...

And letter to the editor says you're weak if you can't stop masturbating.

Not only that, but you're a SINNER and you're goin' TA HELL!!!

(But first you'll go blind and your dick will rot off.)

Anonymous said...

Israeli PM in war crimes pledge

Any Israeli soldiers accused of war crimes in the Gaza Strip will be given state protection from prosecution overseas, the country's PM has said.

Ehud Olmert said troops should know Israel would keep them safe after they acted to protect their country.

Palestinians say 1,300 people died during the offensive, and UN officials want independent probes into whether war crimes were committed.

Meanwhile, a Hamas delegation is in Egypt for talks on cementing a truce.

Israel ended its military operation in Gaza on 18 January, and Hamas declared a ceasefire hours later.

No formal framework for a lasting ceasefire has yet been agreed.

While Israel says it requires Hamas to end weapons smuggling into Gaza and rocket attacks on Israel, Hamas has demanded that Israel lift its economic blockade of the territory.

Soldiers 'safe'

In Israel, Prime Minister Olmert told a weekly cabinet meeting that soldiers who had put their lives on the line for their country need not fear prosecution for war crimes overseas.

"The commanders and soldiers that were sent on the task in Gaza should know that they are safe from any tribunal and that the State of Israel will assist them in this issue and protect them as they protected us with their bodies during the military operation in Gaza," he said.

Israel's military tactics have come under intense scrutiny as evidence has emerged of the high numbers of Palestinian civilians killed in Gaza.

Among complaints made by human rights groups are accusations of indiscriminate firing and the use of white phosphorus shells in civilian areas.

Israel has admitted using white phosphorus in Gaza but says it did not break international law in doing so.

White phosphorus is legal for creating smokescreens in open battleground. But rights groups and journalists say it was used in crowded civilian areas.

The weapon sticks to human skin and will burn through to the bone.

Truce talks

In Cairo, delegates from Hamas met Egyptian intelligence officials on Sunday as they sought to bolster the week-long calm in Gaza.

Representatives from Fatah, the main rival Palestinian faction, were also due to attend the talks.

The talks came as Hamas said it was beginning a programme of cash handouts to Palestinians in Gaza whose homes were damaged by the three weeks of Israeli bombardments.

There was no word of the substance of discussions in Egypt with Omar Suleiman, the Egyptian intelligence chief who brokered a previous six-month truce between Israel and Hamas.

Mr Suleiman held talks with an Israeli envoy on Thursday.

In a statement, Egyptian state media said Hamas and Mr Suleiman discussed "Egyptian efforts to consolidate the ceasefire, reach a [permanent] truce, reopen Gaza crossings and resume Palestinian national dialogue".

Israel and Egypt closed their borders with Gaza when Hamas seized control of the territory in mid-2007.

Anonymous said...

"Wow... Umpqua was involved with about every dumbshit project in town! The Shire, Tuscany Buttplugs, The Plaza..."

*

But UMPQUA has a texas-ratio of 6, and CACB over 31, and rising, and WAMU went down at 30.

UMPQUA is 'chosen' bank.

The whole point of TARP is to pick winners & losers.

Yes, lava watch the payouts closely, and then you can see who is CHOSEN by God.

We all know that UMQUA is up to its FUCKING eyeballs in worthless RE, yet it has a golden fucking texas-ratio, how do they keep all these non-performing loans off their books?? I smell an ENRON.

hbm said...

I think that masturbation and Bend is like cali & sunshine.

Not a hell of a lot else to do here in the winter.

They don't masturbate in Prinveille -- they fuck dead deer instead.

Anonymous said...

Compared to Burns, Bend ain't that bad!

*

Burns is what BEND should be, Burns will not BK, Burns didn't do stupid shit, Burns is paradise compared to Bend.

In Burns, everyday is tourist season, that's why they're so hard to find.

Anonymous said...

But they weren't and Umpqua has gotten theirs.

*

That's the whole fucking point.

So long as your cash asset ratio is high compared to your non-performing your texas-ratio is golden, so those who get TARP look good and those that don't fail.

The question that should be asked is WHO choses? Who is God?

Anonymous said...

A lot of people where don't want their IP logged by county, since sp is too fucking stupid, will someone else dump the data.

*


I explained how to do it above,
again:

go to :

http://recordings.co.deschutes.or.us/search.asp

type in the year, upper left corner of screen

open search field "deed"

under last name put %bank%

press search button

peruse til your heart is content buddy.

Anonymous said...

I explained how to do it above,
again:

go to :

http://recordings.co.deschutes.or.us/search.asp

type in the year, upper left corner of screen

open search field "deed"

under last name put %bank%

press search button

peruse til your heart is content buddy.


And you can select "party type" as indirect so you filter out where the bank is a seller.

This is the 4th or 5th time this has been posted.

paranoid bastard. look it up yourself. Or go to a fucking coffee shop and look it up.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I wondered when this would finally happen...

Massive cuts likely for Bend schools; With shortfall as high as $7.5M, district could be forced to slash staffing or shorten school year

Todays Bully...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

shorten school year..

I hope it's the high schoolers who are let out early... rampaging little vandals... God love 'em.

Anonymous said...

>A lot of people where don't want their IP logged by county, since sp is too fucking stupid, will someone else dump the data.

First, it's not like it's one of those child-porn websites you visit. It's actually legal and there is nothing wrong with looking at the county's website. What the FUCK could they construe from you looking at it.

Second, since you have obviously never been, there is way too much data to sort through. All the numbers are in PDFs to download, which are scans that have not had OCR on them. YOU CAN'T DUMP THEM.

And even if you could dump them, that's the most fucking irritating thing on this blog. Someone tells you how to get the EXACT FUCKING data they have. You are like Jabba the Hutt on the web. Too fucking lazy to do anything yourself except write pages and pages of bullshit, that you know is mostly "stretching the truth for effect."

Dumping is what's wrong with this blog. Short summaries and links so anyone that is actually interested can go read the full article should be the norm.

Lazy fucks can just go without the data since you would be too lazy to go through it anyway.

tim said...

That lady doesn't realize that there are only two kinds of men: Those who masturbate and those who lie.

Every "decent" man she knows is a liar, and a secret mad wanker.

tim said...

>>Massive cuts likely for Bend schools; With shortfall as high as $7.5M, district could be forced to slash staffing or shorten school year

And they are building new schools even as kids leave the district.

hbm said...

The return of prosperity during and after World War II revived some of the forces that divided society and promoted self-interest in the 1920s. But the experience of the Great Depression left a lasting mark on the United States in the forms of a much greater role for the federal government, a new political alignment in which Democrats would retain the support of a majority for most of the next half century, and a general feeling that the free market must be regulated in order to avoid another such economic catastrophe.

And then, starting in 1980, Americans forgot the lessons of the Great Depression and put the right-wingers back in power, and they proceeded to enact their policies (which have not changed in over a hundred years) of regressive taxation, union-busting, dismantling of the social safety net and deregulation of business.

Well, THAT sure worked out well, didn't it?

It appears that Americans need to relearn the same painful lesson every 70 years or so: Right-wing policies DO NOT WORK.

hbm said...

Burns is what BEND should be

Oh, please.

I don't usually say this, but ...

... if you think Burns is so fucking wonderful, why don't you move there?

Bend has its problems, but Burns is a REAL shithole. I wouldn't live there on a bet.

St Paddy said...

>>Bend has its problems, but Burns is a REAL shithole<<


It does have some of the same upscale dining options as Bend.

Subway -downtown Burns

Dairy Oueen- midtown Burns

The Apple Peddler (I heard Denton is opening one in Aspen this spring)

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


It appears that Americans need to relearn the same painful lesson every 70 years or so: Right-wing policies DO NOT WORK.


No.... the Real Lesson is this country cannot seem to reach any sort of long-term equilibrium on moderate policies.

We are a country of extremists. The pendulum swings...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

hbm... you seem to imply that since OUR POLICIES do not work... that yours will.

We'll see: We're about to get an overwhelming helping of government-fueled aid, assistance, and welfare.

Funny thing is WE ARE GOING TO PAY FOR IT.

If I have to trust either GOVERNMENT or INDIVIDUALS to re-allocate wealth, I sure as hell won't choose government IN ANY FORM. INDIVIDUALS aren't perfect at it, but their a long-shot better than government.

hbm said...

hbm... you seem to imply that since OUR POLICIES do not work... that yours will.

I'm not implying it -- I'm saying it. And I have history to back me up.

The greatest era of prosperity for America was the post-Roosevelt era -- the period from 1946 through approximately 1970, when the tax system was much more progressive than it is now, the minimum wage was much higher (adjusted for inflation), union membership was much higher, the distribution of wealth and income was much more even and government regulation of business was much tighter. All these were the direct results of policies inaugurated during the New Deal.

You might not have even been alive during that era, but I was. With only one blue-collar breadwinner, my family was able to afford a home, a car, a vacation every year, good medical care when necessary, and a college education for me.

Ironically, conservatives look back on that era as a golden age without acknowledging what made it golden.

OTOH right-wing policies have failed every single time they have been tried. And that's a fact, Jack.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

But there really can't be anything more HYPOCRITICAL than John Boehner talking about the "OUT OF CONTROL" spending of the Obaminator.

My God, I just want to hide.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The greatest era of prosperity for America was the post-Roosevelt era -- the period from 1946 through approximately 1970, when the tax system was much more progressive than it is now, the minimum wage was much higher (adjusted for inflation), union membership was much higher, the distribution of wealth and income was much more even and government regulation of business was much tighter. All these were the direct results of policies inaugurated during the New Deal.

Did you know that the correlation of golf course building over the past 80 years has a 99% correlation with the divorce rate?

So.... golfing CAUSES divorce, right?

Maybe on the margin, but it is predominately a side-effect of the growth in prosperity which caused the golf course building, and the loosening of marital expectations that caused the divorces rate to rise... it wasn't causal.

The prosperity of the time period you are talking about was probably matched or exceeded by the RePug era of prosperity that STARTED WITH REAGAN.

I won't put that out there... cuz it was the extension of a period that just happens to coincide with the prosperity this country has experienced over the past 70 years, no matter the Prez or Congress.

Distinguish between causality & coincidence.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Distinguish between causality & coincidence.

Bdetter put:

CORRELATION DOES NOT IMPLY CAUSALITY

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

As of Saturday Bend...Residential

41 homes sold at $225,000 median.

We are on target of selling about 60 this month. The median last year was $293k.


Wow... that's just incredible.

DOWN 43% off the May 2006 highs ($396,000).

BendBB... I know you're here once in awhile... Wanna go double or nothing on medians in the $100's before the next New Year?

Anonymous said...

http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/25/markets/sunday_weekahead/index.htm

The week ahead: Investors gear up for a deluge of weak earnings and the biggest plunge in GDP in 26 years.

hbm said...

The prosperity of the time period you are talking about was probably matched or exceeded by the RePug era of prosperity that STARTED WITH REAGAN.

If you measure "prosperity" just by the size of the GDP, yeah, the post-Reagan era may have been more "prosperous." But the prosperity has been very unevenly distributed; real incomes for most Americans have actually declined over the past 30 years and net worth is now a negative.

Of course there were other factors behind American prosperity in the post-WWII era -- such as being the only major world manufacturing power that emerged from the war with its manufacturing capability intact. But they don't explain why the prosperity lasted so long and why it was so broadly distributed. There are always uncontrollable external factors affecting an economy, but to pretend that government policies have nothing to do with it is absurd on its face. (Of course, now that right-wing policies have failed so visibly and catastrophically, that's exactly what I'd expect a right-winger to pretend.)

Right-wingers seem to see the ideal economy as an inverted pyramid that balances on its tip -- a handful of super-rich individuals. I believe a healthy economy is shaped like a right-side-up pyramid that rests securely on the broad base of a prosperous working class and middle class.

We've tried the right-wing model, and it ended up falling over -- as it always does.

tim said...

Neither left nor right works. Obviously we will bob back and forth forever.

Leave anyone in for very long at all and they get corrupt enough to throw out.

My political party is "throw the bums out." I love voting against incumbents.

hbm said...

CORRELATION DOES NOT IMPLY CAUSALITY

Correlation does not PROVE causality, but it certainly does SUGGEST it. Effects, as a general rule, follow causes. Of course we must avoid the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, but when we see Event B following Event A, it is logical to at least hypothesize that Event A had at least some causal effect on Event B.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Seattle Times Layoff Database

Company Locations Jobs Announced date Effective date Industry
Microsoft Redmond 5,000 1/22/2009 1/23/2009 Software Details
Boeing Seattle 4,500 1/9/2009 4/20/2009 Aerospace Details
Washington Mutual Seattle 3,400 12/1/2008 1/1/2009 Finance Details
Columbia Distributing Arlington, Ferndale, Renton, Vancouver 933 7/15/2008 9/15/2008 Distribution Details
Macy's Seattle 697 3/3/2008 5/2/2008 Retail Details
Alaska Distributors Kent, Everett, Spokane 600 8/13/2008 10/3/2008 Distribution Details
Genie Industries Redmond, Moses Lake 475 10/22/2008 10/22/2008 Manufacturing Details
Meridian Yacht/US Marine Arlington 445 10/10/2008 10/10/2008 Manufacturing Details
Paccar's Kenworth Truck Co. Renton 430 11/13/2008 1/16/2008 Manufacturing Details
TTM Technologies Redmond 429 1/15/2009 6/30/2009 Technology Details
Group Health Redmond 363 2/25/2008 4/30/2008 Health care Details
J.R. Simplot Pasco 335 2/15/2008 4/18/2008 Food processing Details
Meridian Yacht/US Marine Arlington 276 10/16/2008 10/16/2008 Manufacturing Details
Rosetta Inpharmatics/Merck Seattle 240 10/22/2008 12/31/2009 Biotechnology Details
Qwest Seattle 235 1/15/2009 4/15/2009 Telecommunications Details
Columbia Lighting Spokane 211 8/7/2008 9/26/2008 Manufacturing Details
KeyBank Tacoma 200 1/13/2009 12/31/2009 Banking Details
Rosario Resort Eastsound (Orcas Island) 195 8/21/2008 10/20/2008 Hospitality Details
DHL Express Kent, Bothell, Bellevue, Fife 187 11/19/2008 1/18/2009 Delivery services Details
Intermec Technologies Everett 184 7/10/2008 10/3/2008 Electronics Details
Seattle Post-Intelligencer Seattle 181 1/21/2009 3/18/2009 Media Details
Starbucks Seattle 180 7/29/2008 7/29/2008 Retail Details
Hunter Douglas Fabrication Renton 166 12/3/2008 2/2/2009 Manufacturing Details
Teck Cominco Metaline Falls, Pend Oreille County 165 12/15/2008 2/1/2009 Mining Details
IntelliTax Software Bellevue 150 10/24/2008 10/24/2008 Software Details


There are far more.... Bye bye to another feeder market.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

hbm said: Right-wing policies DO NOT WORK.

hbm said: If you measure "prosperity" just by the size of the GDP, yeah, the post-Reagan era may have been more "prosperous."


Ahem.

tim said...

What you really need is "fresh." You have to reinvigorate now and then. Nothing works indefinitely.

Reagan was a reaction to Carter-era misery index numbers.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/13/business/economy/13charts.html?ref=economy

Marge said...

>>>DOWN 43% off the May 2006 highs ($396,000)>>>

It was May 2007 that we hit the peak of $396k. So we slide 43% in 20 months, not 32 months.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

What's funny is ALL my lib friends will admit that yesterday was just an insane OBAMA-LOVEFEST. All of them.

But not a single one will declare it the work of LIBERAL MEDIA. None.

Liberals: 2 + 2 = almost anything but 4

They can always admit the EFFECT, but the CAUSE is completely a mystery. Lib's will NEVER deviate from their own ingrained DOCTRINE. EVER. hbm, dunc, brucey... all shrieking lib's and that's OK. But NONE will admit yesterday was a carefully orchestrated LOVEFEST by OUT-OF-CONTROL LIBERAL MEDIA. NONE! NEVER can put 2 and 2 together, cuz they don't like the answer. Lib's are just COMPLETELY BLIND to their own INCREDIBLE BIASES.

This is why you are relentlessly hammered. WAKE UP WHITE LIB-RUL'S!

January 21, 2009 8:03 AM

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

It was May 2007 that we hit the peak of $396k.

Ahhh yes. I always forget that we truly are 18 months behind the rest of the country... not 6 months.

Bewert said...

Re: CACB and TARP

###

They've already gotten $45M and have a shelf registration looking for $60M more. Here is the S-3 that was filed Dec. 19, 2008.

This prospectus is a part of a registration statement that we filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, or “SEC,” using a “shelf” registration process. Under this shelf registration statement, we may sell, either separately or together, senior debt securities, subordinated debt securities, common shares, preferred shares, purchase contracts, units and warrants, in one or more offerings. In addition, we may offer to our existing shareholders subscription rights, which may or may not be transferable, to purchase additional shares of our common. We may use the shelf registration statement to sell, in one or more offerings, up to $60,000,000 of any securities registered, in any combination, in any offering amount, in addition to the $44,815,502 (which amount includes the shares of common stock reserved for issuance under the Warrant at the exercise price of $6.77 per share) of Series A Preferred and the Warrant we previously issued to the U.S. Treasury in a private placement and the 863,442 common shares reserved for exercise of the Warrant, which are also included in the registration statement and may be sold hereunder.

I know facts interfere with your theories, Buster, but there you have it.

Bewert said...

Butter, you sound like Rush Fatass. The media hasn't been liberal since Reagan got rid of the Fairness Doctrine.

Our number one cable news channel, Fox, is run by Roger Ailes, who has been a media consultant for Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and George H. W. Bush, as well as Rudy Giuliani. Most every news show there is has 2-3 conservatives for every center-left liberal, with the exception of Olbermann.

Try reading and listening to both sides. I even listened to Chris Wallace on Fox this morning, someone who I despise, before moving over to Stephanopolus and an economic roundtable with Krugman and Fiorina.

The Obama lovefest may have something to do with his 70% approval ratings; an even, pleasant intelligent demeanor; and a country that was so over W that they couldn't wait to see him, Dick, and the rest of their cabal leave.

Bewert said...

FYI--the next City of Bend revenue source:

FYI:

City of Bend

Financial Strategy Session Day 2

Friday – January 23, 2009

North Fire Station - Training Facility

8:00-10:00am Presentation of Financial Strategy Needs
Transportation Utility Fee/Gas Tax

Bewert said...

Re: Re: City debt load

###

It's about $120M. We have $8.2M reserved for debt service.

2007-2009 Biennial Budget, see pages 90 and 91.

"Debt Capacity and Limitation

It is anticipated for a growing city to have associated debt burden supporting its expanding infrastructure needs. However the City continues to monitor its debt burden to ensure fiscal responsibility and discipline in issuing debt. Debt issued must be affordable and cost effective and an appropriate balance between capital needs and the ability to pay for them must be maintained.

The debt proposed for the 2007-09 biennium extends the City to its highest level of debt burden. Based on conservative revenue and expenditure projections, the City will be at or near capacity for
Transportation System Development Charges (SDCs) and Water Reclamation with the bond issues proposed.


Transportation construction bonds are currently repaid through transportation system development charges (SDCs). With the proposed debt issues, debt service coverage is projected to decrease to 3.06 by the end of the biennium. Although transportation construction is financed through full faith and credit bonds which do not have debt coverage ratio covenants, a conservative coverage ratio should be maintained as SDCs are dependent on building activity and are not assured revenues."


And that was before the bottom dropped out of the SDC's.

Anonymous said...

The 'City' Note the PUSSY say's the CITY, the real debt is hidden in dozens of Bend quasi public/private agencys like 'BURA' Bend Urban Renewal Agency, Like ENRON, with 100's of names like 'Raptor',... All this debt BEND is on the hook, but its all hidden from the 'city' budget.

No where is all the individuals 'off books' quasi public agency's integrated.


All of Juniper Ridge is under BURA, and shows a net profit, as everytime they borrow more money, they record the debt as 'future sales' @JR, and thus all the books balance, today 'future sales' stands at $30M, notable given to date sales has been $6M, and 1/2 went to kuratek. Notable as every $3M we take in, we spend $15M on 'improvements'.

BAT (Bend Bus) 'Bend Area Transit' is its own off-books agency, but can use the city's name for debt, e.g. the city is the co-signer for the agency.

MrBruce said...

Transcript:

Obama's Speech at AIPAC

"But if anyone has been confused by these e-mails, I want you to know that today I'll be speaking from my heart, and as a true friend of Israel. And I know that when I visit with AIPAC, I am among friends. Good friends. Friends who share my strong commitment to make sure that the bond between the United States and Israel is unbreakable today, tomorrow and forever.

It was just a few years after the liberation of the camps that David Ben-Gurion declared the founding of the Jewish State of Israel. We know that the establishment of Israel was just and necessary, rooted in centuries of struggle and decades of patient work. But 60 years later, we know that we cannot relent, we cannot yield, and as president I will never compromise when it comes to Israel's security.

Not when there are still voices that deny the Holocaust. Not when there are terrorist groups and political leaders committed to Israel's destruction. Not when there are maps across the Middle East that don't even acknowledge Israel's existence, and government-funded textbooks filled with hatred toward Jews. Not when there are rockets raining down on Sderot, and Israeli children have to take a deep breath and summon uncommon courage every time they board a bus or walk to school.

I have long understood Israel's quest for peace and need for security. But never more so than during my travels there two years ago. Flying in an [Israeli Defense Forces] helicopter, I saw a narrow and beautiful strip of land nestled against the Mediterranean. On the ground, I met a family who saw their house destroyed by a Katyusha rocket. I spoke to Israeli troops who faced daily threats as they maintained security near the blue line. I talked to people who wanted nothing more simple, or elusive, than a secure future for their children.

I have been proud to be a part of a strong, bipartisan consensus that has stood by Israel in the face of all threats. That is a commitment that both John McCain and I share, because support for Israel in this country goes beyond party. But part of our commitment must be speaking up when Israel's security is at risk, and I don't think any of us can be satisfied that America's recent foreign policy has made Israel more secure.

Hamas now controls Gaza. Hezbollah has tightened its grip on southern Lebanon, and is flexing its muscles in Beirut. Because of the war in Iraq, Iran — which always posed a greater threat to Israel than Iraq — is emboldened and poses the greatest strategic challenge to the United States and Israel in the Middle East in a generation. Iraq is unstable, and al-Qaida has stepped up its recruitment. Israel's quest for peace with its neighbors has stalled, despite the heavy burdens borne by the Israeli people. And America is more isolated in the region, reducing our strength and jeopardizing Israel's safety.

The question is how to move forward. There are those who would continue and intensify this failed status quo, ignoring eight years of accumulated evidence that our foreign policy is dangerously flawed. And then there are those who would lay all of the problems of the Middle East at the doorstep of Israel and its supporters, as if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the root of all trouble in the region. These voices blame the Middle East's only democracy for the region's extremism. They offer the false promise that abandoning a stalwart ally is somehow the path to strength. It is not, it never has been, and it never will be.

Our alliance is based on shared interests and shared values. Those who threaten Israel threaten us. Israel has always faced these threats on the front lines. And I will bring to the White House an unshakeable commitment to Israel's security.

We should export military equipment to our ally Israel under the same guidelines as NATO. And I will always stand up for Israel's right to defend itself in the United Nations and around the world.

We must isolate Hamas unless and until they renounce terrorism, recognize Israel's right to exist, and abide by past agreements. There is no room at the negotiating table for terrorist organizations. That is why I opposed holding elections in 2006 with Hamas on the ballot. The Israelis and the Palestinian Authority warned us at the time against holding these elections. But this administration pressed ahead, and the result is a Gaza controlled by Hamas, with rockets raining down on Israel.

The Palestinian people must understand that progress will not come through the false prophets of extremism or the corrupt use of foreign aid. The United States and the international community must stand by Palestinians who are committed to cracking down on terror and carrying the burden of peacemaking. I will strongly urge Arab governments to take steps to normalize relations with Israel, and to fulfill their responsibility to pressure extremists and provide real support for President Abbas and Prime Minister Fayyad. Egypt must cut off the smuggling of weapons into Gaza. Israel can also advance the cause of peace by taking appropriate steps — consistent with its security — to ease the freedom of movement for Palestinians, improve economic conditions in the West Bank, and to refrain from building new settlements — as it agreed to with the Bush administration at Annapolis.

The threats to Israel start close to home, but they don't end there. Syria continues its support for terror and meddling in Lebanon. And Syria has taken dangerous steps in pursuit of weapons of mass destruction, which is why Israeli action was justified to end that threat.

I also believe that the United States has a responsibility to support Israel's efforts to renew peace talks with the Syrians. We must never force Israel to the negotiating table, but neither should we ever block negotiations when Israel's leaders decide that they may serve Israeli interests. As president, I will do whatever I can to help Israel succeed in these negotiations. And success will require the full enforcement of Security Council Resolution 1701 in Lebanon, and a stop to Syria's support for terror. It is time for this reckless behavior to come to an end.

There is no greater threat to Israel — or to the peace and stability of the region — than Iran. Now this audience is made up of both Republicans and Democrats, and the enemies of Israel should have no doubt that, regardless of party, Americans stand shoulder to shoulder in our commitment to Israel's security. So while I don't want to strike too partisan a note here today, I do want to address some willful mischaracterizations of my positions.

The Iranian regime supports violent extremists and challenges us across the region. It pursues a nuclear capability that could spark a dangerous arms race and raise the prospect of a transfer of nuclear know-how to terrorists. Its president denies the Holocaust and threatens to wipe Israel off the map. The danger from Iran is grave, it is real, and my goal will be to eliminate this threat.

But just as we are cleareyed about the threat, we must be clear about the failure of today's policy. We knew, in 2002, that Iran supported terrorism. We knew Iran had an illicit nuclear program. We knew Iran posed a grave threat to Israel. But instead of pursuing a strategy to address this threat, we ignored it and instead invaded and occupied Iraq. When I opposed the war, I warned that it would fan the flames of extremism in the Middle East. That is precisely what happened in Iran — the hard-liners tightened their grip, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected president in 2005. And the United States and Israel are less secure.

We will also use all elements of American power to pressure Iran. I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. That starts with aggressive, principled diplomacy without self-defeating preconditions, but with a cleareyed understanding of our interests. We have no time to waste. We cannot unconditionally rule out an approach that could prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. We have tried limited, piecemeal talks while we outsource the sustained work to our European allies. It is time for the United States to lead.

There will be careful preparation. We will open up lines of communication, build an agenda, coordinate closely with our allies, and evaluate the potential for progress. Contrary to the claims of some, I have no interest in sitting down with our adversaries just for the sake of talking. But as president of the United States, I would be willing to lead tough and principled diplomacy with the appropriate Iranian leader at a time and place of my choosing — if, and only if, it can advance the interests of the United States.

Only recently have some come to think that diplomacy by definition cannot be tough. They forget the example of Truman, and Kennedy and Reagan. These presidents understood that diplomacy backed by real leverage was a fundamental tool of statecraft. And it is time to once again make American diplomacy a tool to succeed, not just a means of containing failure. We will pursue this diplomacy with no illusions about the Iranian regime. Instead, we will present a clear choice. If you abandon your dangerous nuclear program, support for terror, and threats to Israel, there will be meaningful incentives — including the lifting of sanctions, and political and economic integration with the international community. If you refuse, we will ratchet up the pressure.

My presidency will strengthen our hand as we restore our standing. Our willingness to pursue diplomacy will make it easier to mobilize others to join our cause. If Iran fails to change course when presented with this choice by the United States, it will be clear — to the people of Iran, and to the world — that the Iranian regime is the author of its own isolation. That will strengthen our hand with Russia and China as we insist on stronger sanctions in the Security Council. And we should work with Europe, Japan and the Gulf states to find every avenue outside the U.N. to isolate the Iranian regime — from cutting off loan guarantees and expanding financial sanctions, to banning the export of refined petroleum to Iran, to boycotting firms associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, whose Quds force has rightly been labeled a terrorist organization.

I was interested to see Sen. McCain propose divestment as a source of leverage — not the bigoted divestment that has sought to punish Israeli scientists and academics, but divestment targeted at the Iranian regime. It's a good concept, but not a new one. I introduced legislation over a year ago that would encourage states and the private sector to divest from companies that do business in Iran. This bill has bipartisan support, but for reasons that I'll let him explain, Sen. McCain never signed on. Meanwhile, an anonymous senator is blocking the bill. It is time to pass this into law so that we can tighten the squeeze on the Iranian regime. We should also pursue other unilateral sanctions that target Iranian banks and assets.

Finally, let there be no doubt: I will always keep the threat of military action on the table to defend our security and our ally Israel. Sometimes there are no alternatives to confrontation. But that only makes diplomacy more important. If we must use military force, we are more likely to succeed, and will have far greater support at home and abroad, if we have exhausted our diplomatic efforts.

That is the change we need in our foreign policy. Change that restores American power and influence. Change accompanied by a pledge that I will make known to allies and adversaries alike: that America maintains an unwavering friendship with Israel, and an unshakeable commitment to its security.

Now is the time to be vigilant in facing down every foe, just as we move forward in seeking a future of peace for the children of Israel, and for all children. Now is the time to stand by Israel as it writes the next chapter in its extraordinary journey."

MrBruce said...

So WHO is UMPQUA BANK, What makes them so good? ( pinball wizard )

In order to understand Orygun, you got to understand Timber, sure BEND is dead its a resource colony that has all the resources sucked out to death, today Bend is a desert Shit-hole. But the boyz over in Roseberg, they got TREES, they got billion's of dollars, and they give lots of it in campaign contributions to PUG's, and that is why they are TARP GOLDEN & MOSS is NOT.

###


The weather may not have been great and the numbers may have been few, but that didn't stop a handful of activists from picket in front of Umpqua Bank this morning around 11:30 a.m. today. Two great big banners were revealed as others handed out information about stUmpqua Bank and their dastardly destruction of Oregon's ancient forests. The handout that was given went a little something like this:

stUmpqua bank is run by timber barons who are profiting from the destruction of Oregon's ancient forests. Allyn Ford, president of the board of (st)Umpqua Bank, is the owner of Roseburg Forest Products. Lynn Herbert of Herbert Lumber is also a board member, and the Herbert family are the largest stockholders of stUmpqua Bank.

Both Roseburg Forest Products and Herbert Lumber have long histories of destroying native eco-systems, turning salmon bearing watersheds into muddy rivers and ancient forests into fields of stumps and government-managed tree plantations. Currently Roseburg Forest Products is buying tress from the Biscuit Timber Sale as part of the deceptively named "Fire Recovery Project." This extreme logging plan, the largest in US Forest Service history, is mainly in Old Growth Reserves and Roadless areas. Many of these areas are completely unburned and others are part of a fragile post burn eco-system.

Anonymous said...

I know facts interfere with your theories, Buster, but there you have it.

*

No pussy, it was lava that said they had gotten zero, and I knew they had applied for the $60M long ago, so its good to hear they got something, but it still didn't help their texas-ratio.

LavaBear said...

>>>I know facts interfere with your theories, Buster, but there you have it.


I know this is gonna suck Bruce but you owe Buster an apology. The S-3 you are looking at is for CASB out of Walla Walla. Not the CACB out of Bend, Oregon. Says so on the very first line of the PDF.

Here is the link to the Treasuries list of all TARP money spent to date. Cracker Ass isn't on it.

Anonymous said...

Of course there were other factors behind American prosperity in the post-WWII era -- such as being the only major world manufacturing power that emerged from the war with its manufacturing capability intact. - hbm

*

Thank you HBM, and that's it nobody should get credit demORpug, shit happens, then we had the baby food which fueled shit to the 1980's, then we had the retirement investment boom which fed wall-st, now its game-over, and NOBODY can fix it, like homers post today, in a few years we'll have WWIII, an the USA will have its fingers crossed, that ALL manufacturing is destroyed elsewhere, my bet this time, don't count on it, more than likely this cycle the war will be fought on US ground this place will be destroyed, sure we would like war's to be forever fought 'elsewhere' but history is rarely so kind.

LavaBear said...

CASB is in Everett not Walla Walla.

Anonymous said...

I know this is gonna suck Bruce but you owe Buster an apology. The S-3 you are looking at is for CASB out of Walla Walla. Not the CACB out of Bend, Oregon. Says so on the very first line of the PDF.

*

Thanks lava, but one thing consistent about the PUSSY, and that is he NEVER reads the shit he posts, so its not surprising that he read it wrong.

My assumption is that would have gotten some of the $60M by now, so we all can now confirm MOSS has gotten NO CARP!!!

Then back to theory like above, we asked why UMPQUA, note above these boyz are sitting on Billions of SW ORygun old growth coastal forest, and they're PUGS bigtime, and thus its rather obvious that BUSH loved them cuz, well they got real fucking assets, so much that even all their non-performing loans doesn't effect their books.

So I think we can all assume that very soon, UMPQUA will own CACB, unless UMPQUA don't want to the bitch? Which is quite possible, given that its desert, and NO real CASH assets.

hbm said...

hbm said: Right-wing policies DO NOT WORK.

hbm said: If you measure "prosperity" just by the size of the GDP, yeah, the post-Reagan era may have been more "prosperous."


Ahem.


Did you miss the fucking point COMPLETELY, Homer, or are you being deliberately obtuse?

Your standard of "prosperity" evidently is not mine. I'm more interested in whether most people can make a living than in whether a handful of people can make a killing.

"Ahem" yourself.

Anonymous said...

The Apple Peddler (I heard Denton is opening one in Aspen this spring)

*

BIG lie.

Denton is Boca Raton, and is opening a Deep there. He's already got a loan.

Florida is 18 months ahead of us and there are tons of bargains there, and those with money are bailing out of NY and going to Boca to retire.

Denton is going to land on both feet just fine, while you fucks in Bend turn to cannibilism.

hbm said...

Homer wants to give credit for the prosperity of the post-Reagan era to the conservatives but wants to deny credit for the prosperity of the post-Roosevelt era to liberals and refuses to blame the current mess on conservative policies. IOW cause-and-effect works when a period of prosperity follows a conservative regime but does NOT work when a period of prosperity follows a liberal regime or when an economic collapse follows a conservative regime.

The laws of logic have been repealed on Planet Homer.

hbm said...

Reagan was a reaction to Carter-era misery index numbers.

Before long we'll be remembering the Carter administration as the good old days.

Anonymous said...

HBM don't bother, homer is a Rush Limbaugh to the core, with a little bit of liberal-pussy to sympathize, but deep down he roots for the winners, the big winners.

Don't bother trying to ever get homer to spill crocodile tears for the 'common man', sure a croc, might dump one tear for the 'common man' he has just eaten, but its only for show.

This group is what it is, and you ain't going to make the Pussy go 'right', and you ain't going to make homer go 'left'.

Me, I'm an Emma Goldman Anarchist, and she be a Jewish woman, who had strong opinions.

Personally I think HBM would like people to think he's liberal, or maybe that's why Switzer has him at the SORE, to balance the BULL, and make it appear that Bend has both sides of the FASCIST continuum covered.

Anyways HBM, its a waste of time to argue left vs right with homer.

I always say, .. it ain't left vs right, it ain't top vs bottom, and ain't rich vs poor.

It's CORRUPTION stupid.

Like made-off sitting in a $20M apt, or Geithner refusing to pay back taxes, ... any of us would have gotten hosed, double standards and corruption is what has FUCKED the USA, and until we force our government to fairly ENFORCE the fucking law, we'll continue to run this country into the toilet.

The law must be fair. Those in fiduciary control of public funds must be HUNG until dead for theft.

I think HOMER thinks that when PUG's ripoff the government its like robin-hood giving to the poor. Some twisted shit.

But BEND, but is a FRAUD of a town, ran by frauds for frauds, and of frauds.

Prior to the 1920's the USA was poor for most people, during the 1920's most people were poor, that is why PONZI was so big in the 20's , it was the first time ever the little guy could get rich like the big guy!!!!

For a short time after WWII US manufacturing enjoyed best wages ever, but it didn't last, and today US auto is toast.

NO politician left or right can fix anything, because just like BEND, all poly-tick-ians are blood suckers owned by people like MOSS, or COBA, or CORA, and the only purpose of politicians is to rob the public treasury, today its done with MUNI debt.

LavaBear said...

>>>BIG lie.

Man, you not so smart are you? It was a FUCKING JOKE. But now that it has to be spelled out you just ruined it.

Anonymous said...

Before long we'll be remembering the Carter administration as the good old days.

###

I remember Carter as the good days. It wasn't that bad. There were gas lines, and interest rates were high, so fucking what I wasn't in debt then, and not now. I had friends pump gas privately so I didn't have to get in line.

BFD, carter was a nice guy. Raygun was an asshole like BUSH. To this day Carter is a nice guy.

Why do KUNTS demonize carter? Because he went against AIPAC. End of story, had he guessed AIPAC's shit hole like raygun, or bush, then carter today would be loved by Pug's.

Anonymous said...

had Carter KISSED AIPAC's shit hole like raygun, or bush, then carter today would be loved by Pug's.

MrBruce said...

Apology rules this town.

Even in Vallejo, CA the media blames to this day to the public that the reason for BK is that city-hall over-paid the cops.

When in fact the reason for the BK, is that the city with $300M in muni-debt got to the point where the teeter-totter had more on the interest payment side, than the service side, but the media doesn't want to talk about that. But if you google 'city muni default' you can find its a big story on wall-st, where all the muni is written. But on main-street its top-secret.

Pay no attention to any of this, there is only ONE brain in BEND, there are no elections, and for all time collectively everybody in city-hall and city-staff had one goal, to increase the population from 100k to 200k to 1M.

That is a big fucking LIE.

Not everyone in BEND has the same goals. The city is made of up of dozen's of boss-hoggs all trying to keep their own pig trough full of pork.

HBM & COSTA would like nothing more than the history of Bend to say that collective hysteria is why we went BK. That is the BIG LIE.

Anonymous said...

Yes, its always talking in 'code' with this crowd.

The BIG LIE, but we got be like homer and use innuedo, we can't just come out and say its a mob town, ... oh no, .. we got to play games like the bull and say, ...

Who could have know?

Who could have guessed?

How come 1031 boyz aren't jail for stealing ten's of millions?? How come NO 1031 boyz anywhere in the USA aren't jail for stealing 100's of millions??

Anonymous said...

The 'City' Note the PUSSY say's the CITY, the real debt is hidden in dozens of Bend quasi public/private agencys like 'BURA' Bend Urban Renewal Agency, Like ENRON, with 100's of names like 'Raptor',... All this debt BEND is on the hook, but its all hidden from the 'city' budget.

No where is all the individuals\ 'off books' quasi public agency's integrated.


All of Juniper Ridge is under BURA, and shows a net profit, as everytime they borrow more money, they record the debt as 'future sales' @JR, and thus all the books balance, today 'future sales' stands at $30M, notable given to date sales has been $6M, and 1/2 went to kuratek. Notable as every $3M we take in, we spend $15M on 'improvements'.

BAT (Bend Bus) 'Bend Area Transit' is its own off-books agency, but can use the city's name for debt, e.g. the city is the co-signer for the agency.

Bewert said...

Re: this is going to suck.

###

My bad. IIRC this is the second time I've confused these two. Public humiliation is due.

Here is our CACB":

"To ensure the security of your dollars, Bank of the Cascades has chosen to participate in the FDIC's temporary 100% guarantee of non-interest bearing checking accounts. This program ensures that all funds in these accounts are fully insured through 12/31/09. The guarantee also applies to Interest checking accounts (also known as NOW accounts) with interest rates of 0.50 or less. The safety and security of your money is a priority. You can rest assured knowing your dollars are in a well capitalized bank with the advantage of extra FDIC insurance. Plus, your money stays right here and is reinvested in our local economy, working for you and your community"

Anonymous said...

TOTAL REQUIREMENTS 1,358,651$ 2,559,760$ 5,241,300$ 1,714,000$ 9,336,200$ 9,336,200$ 9,336,200$


Read the City of Bend budget for 2009 is quite amusing.

For 2005 the requirement for debt service was a little over $1M/yr, in 2009, it will be $10M/yr, so 10X in three years, not bad eh???

So you got to look at it this way, in three fucking years since 2005, the city has managed to 10X our fucking DEBT, that's a 3X every year, at this fucking rate of debt-servicing all of Bends revenue will go toward DEBT in three years from now. Of course we have to BK before that because once all goes to debt, that means there can be no cops or anything, ...

It's pretty clear that right now, we're approaching the post where DEBT is where MOST of our city money is going.

Anonymous said...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
Lead business story in The Bulletin today?

Coyotes on Awbrey Butte

That there is hard hitting journalism.


What the fuck planet are you on, you wonk. The lead story I saw was "Massive Cuts Likely For Bend Schools"

Anonymous said...

So where are we today??

Right now the city gets about $30M/yr so they say for revenue, ...

For 2009/2010 they're planning on getting $60M, ... Cold day in Hell right?

So right now 1/3 of the city treasure is to service debt but the city debt doubles every 6-9 months. So in 1-2 years, the city will only be paying debt, unless of course it can raise revenue, based on forecasts.

FOLKS BEND IS FUCKED.

LavaBear said...

>>>The lead story I saw was "Massive Cuts Likely For Bend Schools"

If you go online right now and goto the Business section it's all about the crazed Coyotes. Nothing regarding Bend Schools.

hbm said...

HBM & COSTA would like nothing more than the history of Bend to say that collective hysteria is why we went BK.

Congratulations, Buster, you have unmasked me. Costa and I are the behind-the-scenes powers who really pull all the strings in Bend -- hell, in the WORLD. I have hundreds of billions of dollars stashed in numbered Swiss bank accounts, my share of the spoils from the rape of Bend. And that's not even counting the tens of billions I have secretly contributed to AIPAC and the cause of Zionism. (Did I mention that Costa and I are both Jews?) And then there are the additional hundreds of billions I have stashed away in the Cayman Islands, my proceeds from the vast global Suterra conspiracy. And then there's my secret controlling interest in Brooks Resources, Juniper Ridge, Les Schwab, assorted 1031s, the Bank of the Cascades, Umpqua, Washington Mutual, etc. etc. etc. etc.

BWAAAAAAHAHAHAhahahahaha!

Shalom!

Bewert said...

CACB did hold a shareholder meeting on Dec. 19, 2008 that prepared them for TARP:

NOTICE IS HEREBY GIVEN that a Special Meeting of Shareholders of Cascade Bancorp (“Cascade” or the “Company”) will be held at 1100 NW
Wall Street, Bend, Oregon, on December 19, 2008, at 8:00 am Pacific Time for the following purposes:
Item 1. To approve an amendment to our Articles of Incorporation to authorize 5,000,000 shares of preferred stock with limited voting rights;

Item 2. To approve an amendment to our Articles of Incorporation to increase the number of authorized shares of the Company’s common
stock from 35,000,000 to 45,000,000;...

Terms of the Possible TARP Capital Purchase Program

Estimated Proceeds: Under the TARP Capital Purchase Program (CPP), eligible financial institutions can generally apply to issue shares of preferred stock to Treasury ranging from a minimum of 1% to a maximum of 3% of each participating institution’s “risk-weighted assets.” Cascade’s risk weighted assets as of September 30, 2008 were approximately $2.2 billion, which would potentially enable Cascade to receive an investment from Treasury of between $22.4 million and $67.4 million. Cascade’s application requested CPP funds up to the maximum amount. It is expected that upon preliminary approval by Treasury, Cascade will have 30 days to satisfy all requirements for participation in the CPP, including receipt of shareholder approval of the Articles Amendment Proposal and the Board of Directors final determination of participation, as well as execution and delivery of an investment agreement with Treasury.

Use and Effect of CPP Proceeds:Cascade intends toutilize the proceeds of possible CPP funds to augment its capital position and to prudently extend lending activities in all of our markets. As a traditional community bank, Cascade gathers local deposits and deploys them exclusively into loans within the markets served. Cascade is committed to helping the businesses and consumers in our communities access suitable credit. Prior to such deployment, the funds may provide additional liquidity and reduce current borrowings or augment investments. Should circumstances result in the Company being viewed as an acquirer of other financial institutions to the benefit of local communities in the northwest, the Board of Directors would contemplate such usage as well.

hbm said...

If you go online right now and goto the Business section it's all about the crazed Coyotes. Nothing regarding Bend Schools.

They have a front-page story about the school mess today but for some unknown reason it's not on the Web site.

Anonymous said...

http://www.ci.bend.or.us/depts/finance/budget/docs/z_Final_Budget_ALL_published.pdf

TOTAL REQUIREMENTS 1,358,651$ 2,559,760$ 5,241,300$ 1,714,000$ 9,336,200$ 9,336,200$ 9,336,200$

The above is from the city-of-Bend 2007/2009 adopted budget.

###

Read the City of Bend budget for 2009 is quite amusing.

For 2005 the requirement for debt service was a little over $1M/yr, in 2009, it will be $10M/yr, so 10X in three years, not bad eh???

So you got to look at it this way, in three fucking years since 2005, the city has managed to 10X our fucking DEBT, that's a 3X every year, at this fucking rate of debt-servicing all of Bends revenue will go toward DEBT in three years from now. Of course we have to BK before that because once all goes to debt, that means there can be no cops or anything, ...

It's pretty clear that right now, we're approaching the post where DEBT is where MOST of our city money is going....

So where are we today??

Right now the city gets about $30M/yr so they say for revenue,

...

For 2009/2010 they're planning on getting Revenue of $60M, ... Cold day in Hell right? Today revenue is $30M/yr, and somehow in the next year during a depression Bends revenue will double, and if it stays the same, all revenue will only go toward debt servicing.

So right now 1/3 of the city treasure is to service debt but the city debt doubles every 6-9 months. So in 1-2 years, the city will only be paying debt, unless of course it can raise revenue, based on forecasts.

FOLKS BEND IS FUCKED.

Anonymous said...

http://www.ci.bend.or.us/depts/finance/budget/docs/z_Final_Budget_ALL_published.pdf

The above is the link to the prior referenced budget on Bend's debt, and the real reason the city is bankrupt.

The city MUST default on these loans, otherwise the city revenue will only be used to pay debt, and there will be no police or schools, or water, or toilets or anything.

Anonymous said...

Bewert said...

CACB did hold a shareholder meeting on Dec. 19, 2008 that prepared them for TARP:


*

Wow pussy your a geni-ass, they applied for $67M back in Dec-08, who could have know, who would have guessed, what would we do with out the pussy?

Anonymous said...

HBM & COSTA would like nothing more than the history of Bend to say that collective hysteria is why we went BK.

Congratulations, Buster, you have unmasked me.

*

No, the conspiracy is YOUR ANGLE, what I said was that YOU&COSTA "Want nothing more than the BEND BK to be seen as the effects of mass hysteria".

For the record I know both you & costa are poor, by virtue of you being in the paper biz, ... I never said you or costa made $$$ for your pimping, I simply said that that your job is to keep peoples eyes away from the real reason Bend is fucked.

hbm said...

NO politician left or right can fix anything, because just like BEND, all poly-tick-ians are blood suckers

LOL! "Politics" comes from the Greek word "poly," meaning "many," and the English word "ticks," meaning "small blood-sucking insects."

Some comedian said that but I can't remember his name.

But I still can't bring myself to be as totally cynical as you are. All poly-tick-ians are corrupt to some extent, in the sense that they have to cut deals and engage in a certain amount of deception to get things done. But they are not all equally corrupt. And some of them, I believe, have a genuine desire to do something for the common good. JFK was one, Carter was another, and I hope Obama is another.

People like Smirky McChimp and Lord Darth Cheney, OTOH, have no fucking clue what "the common good" even MEANS.

hbm said...

what I said was that YOU&COSTA "Want nothing more than the BEND BK to be seen as the effects of mass hysteria".

And what the hell is your basis for saying that? I have been saying for a long, LONG time that Bend's breakneck pace of growth was unsustainable and unwise.

"For the record I know both you & costa are poor, by virtue of you being in the paper biz"

Costa is considerably less poor than I am, I'm sure.

Anonymous said...

Getting back to the BEND BUDGET, most laughable to ME, is that somehow this year the REVENUE is going from $30M/yr to $60M/yr,

Of course we know CHEER-LEADER ECKMAN will be doing a strip show at the LOFT of volo, but HOMER pls tell me how this town can double its revenue.

They also still show the SDC as coming in and growing, and know all new construction is dead.

The fact is BEND's revenue in 2009/2010 will be LESS than NOW, this is a fucking fact, and with debt growth in 2010, 1/2 of all revenue will go to debt servicing, ...

Consider in 2005 it was a paltry 5% of revenue.

How fucking quick can you go BK??

Let's play the numbers logically.

Given that the debt is $10M/yr, and say their paying 5%, then that means they got over $200M in debt on their ass, and that it was only $20M three years ago.

Again I ask you fucking KUNTS where did the $200M go?? This crime makes B1031 look amateur.

Bewert said...

It's on the document I linked to earlier, pages 90-91. Page 93 is projected debt service. Includes all funds as far as I can tell, including BURA.

Total projected indebtedness, including BURA, on June 30, 2009: $128,915,157

Total projected debt service:
08/09 $11,975,500
09/10 $12,362,000

I'll try to get current numbers from Sonia next week.

LavaBear said...

>>>Getting back to the BEND BUDGET, most laughable to ME, is that somehow this year the REVENUE is going from $30M/yr to $60M/yr,


Where are you getting the $60m number? I'm not finding it. I see the $30m but not what you are quoting for the $60m?

LavaBear said...

>>>Where are you getting the $60m number?


Ok, disregard the question. I see what you are looking at and I must say....you are a fucking retard. Sorry there is no nice way to put it. And I thought Bruce's CASB was bad. On the Budget you see 2007/08, 2008/09 and then the $60m column you are freaking about is those two numbers added together. Thus the heading of that column is 2007-09.

Bewert said...

LB, current budget here, much more accurate:
http://www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/docs/2009_Financials_by_Month_Dec08.pdf

2nd Qtr Financial Outlook:
http://www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/docs/Quarterly_Financial_Report___Q2_0809.pdf


I'm not sure where Buster is getting his numbers, but I get a total revenue number of $190M this year off the first page of the current months numbers (the first link), including $20M+ in debt proceeds between now and June 30.

LavaBear said...

Thanks Bruce. Way better than the 2 years old one.

Whoa...yes the SDC fees are a glaring oh shit. I bet they'll have to redo the projection down from there as well.

Bewert said...

Re:
Whoa...yes the SDC fees are a glaring oh shit. I bet they'll have to redo the projection down from there as well.

###

Especially since they will be handing out further permit extensions to anyone who wants one.

Anonymous said...

>Ok, disregard the question. I see what you are looking at and I must say....you are a fucking retard. Sorry there is no nice way to put it.

Uh... what's new. Ignore 98% of what he says.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I even listened to Chris Wallace on Fox this morning...

That's one of us. I don't watch Fox. Ever.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

hbm said...

Oy. I'm just glad it is so EASY to tell the diff between real hbm and Fake hbm... as well as all the other real's & fakes...

Real hbm, brucey, and dunc are intelligent folks... fakeroo's uses the work KUNT 16,000X/second to describe almost everyone. And is obsessed with AIPAC.

Bewert said...

RE: That's one of us. I don't watch Fox. Ever.

###

Helps to see what the majority of America is watching once in awhile. I stop in at Townhall and Redstate on occassion, too. I think it was on Redstate that I read an impassioned screed about the possibility of Obama regulating the financial industry and thereby ruining our economy. As if the utter lack of regulation hasn't already done that.

I thought that was so rich I almost copied it over here. But it seemed to have been removed when I went back.

I figure if Obama can have dinner at George Will's, I can wade in once in a while.

Anonymous said...

RE: That's one of us. I don't watch Fox. Ever.


*

But PUSSY YOU must watch FOX, that is what the SHIT that is being FED to the US peeple,... just the other day you told us it was essential to watch the shit that PEEPLE were being fed.

Anonymous said...

JFK was one, [yes, irish are good men ]

Carter was another,

yes penis farmers are good men ]

and I hope Obama is another.

[ nope, this bitch is a OREO to the fucking CORE. ]

Bewert said...

I think the weakness of deregulation in capitalist systems is that it allows those that are very greedy and amass some power to accrue goods in far greater quantity than they actually produce. A sense of entitlement, and when like-minded folks get together, you get Wall St. and derivatives.

They even have a word for it, the same thing that brought on the current mess: leverage. It inevitably leads to the L-curve, which does not a healthy society make.

Or to think of it in another way, who would you rather have approving an MRI over the phone--a Medicare adjuster who gets paid the same either way, or a Blue Cross/Blue Shield adjuster who has a personal financial incentive to deny treatment?

Or to put it a third way: if everyone makes $12 an hour, who is going to buy your products? Even Henry Ford knew if he wanted to sell cars he had to pay his employees enough to buy them.

PS I do watch Fox on occasion. They still own cable news, although NBC has been cleaning up in the over-the-air stats the last few months.

Butter the one that says he NEVER watches Fox.

Anonymous said...

09/10 $12,362,000

*

Whoa fucking KUNTS, that's the fucking POINT, in 2005 the total fucking yearly debt service was $1.2M, now its $12M,

Will someone please bitch-slap someone and justify 10X in DEBT-SERVICE in a declining Interst-Rate environment?

Anonymous said...

So now the BPussy is telling us to ignore the earlier 2009 PDF he posted on CITY, and that it doesn't matter, whoops, who but the pussy would assume NOBODY would read a 800 page doc??


But the pussy did post the doc, and the doc had some interesting numbers, did the pussy read the 800 page doc?? Hell no, never does.

I cut & pasted all the data from the doc, if you take the cut&paste and search you can find the shit. The page 91-92 that BP keeps talking about HAS NOTHING as always, BP's job is to feed the world shit, and keep them being mushrooms.

Anonymous said...

Where are you getting the $60m number? I'm not finding it. I see the $30m but not what you are quoting for the $60m?



*

Pussy DOC pg. 56, I see your point, but so what, at $10M+ debt service that be 30% revenue spent on DEBT.

Then in 2005 it was only $1M, now its close to $12M, YOU FUCKING CUNTS don't see a pattern here?

At 5% INT, that be $200M in Debt, and three years ago it was $20M,

Who got the $180M, where did it go you lying HBM KUNTS/??

Anonymous said...

http://www.ci.bend.or.us/depts/finance/budget/docs/z_Final_Budget_ALL_published.pdf

TOTAL REQUIREMENTS 1,358,651$ 2,559,760$ 5,241,300$ 1,714,000$ 9,336,200$ 9,336,200$ 9,336,200$

*

Fuck YOU pussy, this doc says 2009, and you posted it, so don't start feeding us new docs, next time read a fucking doc before you post.

LAVA, I agree, but why did they integrate the 2007-2008 revenue?


But still that's not my concern.
My concern is that in 2005 the DEBT service was $1.2M, and now its $12M, this is fucking insane. This is fucking BEND REHO, flipper insane.

Anonymous said...

Ok, I have to eat dinner but I wanted to share this before I vomited.

Me and pussy were having love this eve, and pussy was reading homers post about 'breedlove' kissing the middle age mayor of PDX.

Pussy kept going on about the lips of the mayor touch the 17yr old virgins lips, and I don't know what happened, but I just fucking swelled up, anyhow there was blood everywhere ( pussy blood ).

In summary Homer, pleeeeze don't provide explicit sexual stuff about middle age guys kissing 17yr old boyz, cuz it just makes the pussy go wild.

Anonymous said...

So nobody cares about Bend, how about CACB & UMPQUA, anybody want to explain why CACB has a 31+ texas ratio, and Umpqua a flat 6, and we all here know that Umqua owns tons of BEND non-performing shit.

FYI - a texas ration is assets to non-performing, once non-performing exceed total that the TR is 100, and some actually have more non-performing than total assets.

So bring it on geni-asses of Bend. I mean, trusted Bend morons apologists of City Hall.

Anonymous said...

Butter the one that says he NEVER watches Fox.

*

Is butter/homer a lame ass or what, he posts today cut&paste of the depression from wiki, then he dumps a dozen shit's from the wire, and then 2-3 posts where he tempts the pussy with right vs left rhetoric. HOMER? Did you ever actually use your brain at all or do you just play with HBM's dick all week? At least I had my dick in BP pussy.

LavaBear said...

>>>TOTAL REQUIREMENTS 1,358,651$ 2,559,760$ 5,241,300$ 1,714,000$ 9,336,200$ 9,336,200$ 9,336,200$

Damn. So your concern really is $1.35m up to $9.33m. You round funny but ok I'll play along.

1. You are just looking at the Bend Urban Renewal Agency - Downtown Debt Service Fund. The number you are looking at aren't even the entire City totals.

2. Even if they were the right number you are lumping in the Debt Service and Reserves they are setting aside for the debt.

3. You are a fucking retard again. The $9 million is once again 2007 thru 2009 combined.

And once again I'm not being an "apologist" for the city. I'm just pointing out you are incapable of even high school accounting. So I nominate you for the next Finance Committee opening.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

HOMER? Did you ever actually use your brain at all

My aim is to educate & horrify.

Thought I'd try the former for a change.

Bewert said...

Re: Fuck you pussy.

###

In your dreams.

One doc is the original final 2007-2009 budget (which if you go through the mid-month financials they started adding to in October, 2007 because they forgot to budget in furniture for the new cop shop, which came in $500K over budget to start with) and the other doc is the latest monthly budget detail from last week.

Forgetting to budget in a half-million in furnshings for a new building? No comment.

Same numbers, updated. If you don't have the brain cells left to figure that out, you might want to lay off the sauce.

BTW, if anyone's interested, here is Obama's stimulus bill. All 647 pages of it. There's opportunity in there somewhere, I can feel it ;)

Bewert said...

Re: anybody want to explain why CACB has a 31+ texas ratio, and Umpqua a flat 6

###

My impression was that you were going to do the digging on that one.

Bewert said...

Re: ...where he tempts the pussy with right vs left rhetoric.

###

I don't mind that much. Especially when he posts something rather left-sided to start with. I'm almost always up for a little wingnut baiting.

Bewert said...

Re: [ nope, this bitch is a OREO to the fucking CORE. ]

###

How about a little review of his first five days in office:

1) Ordered Gitmo and secret CIA black prisons closed

2) ordered restrained interrogation techniques (albeit there is an uncomfortable amount of wiggle roon here)

3) Went over to George Will's for a pleasant dinner talk with him, Kristol and Krauthammer. Krauthammer yesterday on Fox: “Look, this is one of the worst bills in galactic history. … FDR left behind the Hoover dam and Eisenhower left behind the interstate highway system. We will leave behind, after spending $1 trillion, a dog run in East Potomac Park.”

Krauthammer is truly one of the worst Zionist wingnust in existence. Yet, he actually wrote a column I agreed with not to long ago. There's a first time for everything.

3) Continued to usher the stimulus bill along.

4) Regulated the TARP program such that some banks decided they don't need it anymore.

5) Overturned Bush's exec orders on banning funding any family planning org that mentions abortion, and opening up stem cell research.

And word is next week he will reverse the Bush EPA decision on Cal and other states having tougher emissions restrictions.

Now that's an OREO I can live with. He's not perfect (Bill Lynn's appointment for #2 at DoD, for instance) but he is a definite change from fear and loathing.

Bewert said...

You know, Butter, whenever I hear that stuff about the age of prosperity brought by Reagan, I always wonder why, if trickle down was so good, did Clinton win on the slogan "It's the economy, stupid!"

No one has been able to explain that to me.

Anonymous said...

Me and pussy were having love this eve, and pussy was reading homers post about 'breedlove' kissing the middle age mayor of PDX.

Pussy kept going on about the lips of the mayor touch the 17yr old virgins lips, and I don't know what happened, but I just fucking swelled up, anyhow there was blood everywhere ( pussy blood ).

In summary Homer, pleeeeze don't provide explicit sexual stuff about middle age guys kissing 17yr old boyz, cuz it just makes the pussy go wild.

Anonymous said...

: [ nope, this bitch is a OREO to the fucking CORE. ] :

Transcript:

Obama's Speech at AIPAC

"But if anyone has been confused by these e-mails, I want you to know that today I'll be speaking from my heart, and as a true friend of Israel. And I know that when I visit with AIPAC, I am among friends. Good friends. Friends who share my strong commitment to make sure that the bond between the United States and Israel is unbreakable today, tomorrow and forever.

It was just a few years after the liberation of the camps that David Ben-Gurion declared the founding of the Jewish State of Israel. We know that the establishment of Israel was just and necessary, rooted in centuries of struggle and decades of patient work. But 60 years later, we know that we cannot relent, we cannot yield, and as president I will never compromise when it comes to Israel's security.

Not when there are still voices that deny the Holocaust. Not when there are terrorist groups and political leaders committed to Israel's destruction. Not when there are maps across the Middle East that don't even acknowledge Israel's existence, and government-funded textbooks filled with hatred toward Jews. Not when there are rockets raining down on Sderot, and Israeli children have to take a deep breath and summon uncommon courage every time they board a bus or walk to school.

I have long understood Israel's quest for peace and need for security. But never more so than during my travels there two years ago. Flying in an [Israeli Defense Forces] helicopter, I saw a narrow and beautiful strip of land nestled against the Mediterranean. On the ground, I met a family who saw their house destroyed by a Katyusha rocket. I spoke to Israeli troops who faced daily threats as they maintained security near the blue line. I talked to people who wanted nothing more simple, or elusive, than a secure future for their children.

I have been proud to be a part of a strong, bipartisan consensus that has stood by Israel in the face of all threats. That is a commitment that both John McCain and I share, because support for Israel in this country goes beyond party. But part of our commitment must be speaking up when Israel's security is at risk, and I don't think any of us can be satisfied that America's recent foreign policy has made Israel more secure.

Hamas now controls Gaza. Hezbollah has tightened its grip on southern Lebanon, and is flexing its muscles in Beirut. Because of the war in Iraq, Iran — which always posed a greater threat to Israel than Iraq — is emboldened and poses the greatest strategic challenge to the United States and Israel in the Middle East in a generation. Iraq is unstable, and al-Qaida has stepped up its recruitment. Israel's quest for peace with its neighbors has stalled, despite the heavy burdens borne by the Israeli people. And America is more isolated in the region, reducing our strength and jeopardizing Israel's safety.

The question is how to move forward. There are those who would continue and intensify this failed status quo, ignoring eight years of accumulated evidence that our foreign policy is dangerously flawed. And then there are those who would lay all of the problems of the Middle East at the doorstep of Israel and its supporters, as if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the root of all trouble in the region. These voices blame the Middle East's only democracy for the region's extremism. They offer the false promise that abandoning a stalwart ally is somehow the path to strength. It is not, it never has been, and it never will be.

Our alliance is based on shared interests and shared values. Those who threaten Israel threaten us. Israel has always faced these threats on the front lines. And I will bring to the White House an unshakeable commitment to Israel's security.

We should export military equipment to our ally Israel under the same guidelines as NATO. And I will always stand up for Israel's right to defend itself in the United Nations and around the world.

We must isolate Hamas unless and until they renounce terrorism, recognize Israel's right to exist, and abide by past agreements. There is no room at the negotiating table for terrorist organizations. That is why I opposed holding elections in 2006 with Hamas on the ballot. The Israelis and the Palestinian Authority warned us at the time against holding these elections. But this administration pressed ahead, and the result is a Gaza controlled by Hamas, with rockets raining down on Israel.

The Palestinian people must understand that progress will not come through the false prophets of extremism or the corrupt use of foreign aid. The United States and the international community must stand by Palestinians who are committed to cracking down on terror and carrying the burden of peacemaking. I will strongly urge Arab governments to take steps to normalize relations with Israel, and to fulfill their responsibility to pressure extremists and provide real support for President Abbas and Prime Minister Fayyad. Egypt must cut off the smuggling of weapons into Gaza. Israel can also advance the cause of peace by taking appropriate steps — consistent with its security — to ease the freedom of movement for Palestinians, improve economic conditions in the West Bank, and to refrain from building new settlements — as it agreed to with the Bush administration at Annapolis.

The threats to Israel start close to home, but they don't end there. Syria continues its support for terror and meddling in Lebanon. And Syria has taken dangerous steps in pursuit of weapons of mass destruction, which is why Israeli action was justified to end that threat.

I also believe that the United States has a responsibility to support Israel's efforts to renew peace talks with the Syrians. We must never force Israel to the negotiating table, but neither should we ever block negotiations when Israel's leaders decide that they may serve Israeli interests. As president, I will do whatever I can to help Israel succeed in these negotiations. And success will require the full enforcement of Security Council Resolution 1701 in Lebanon, and a stop to Syria's support for terror. It is time for this reckless behavior to come to an end.

There is no greater threat to Israel — or to the peace and stability of the region — than Iran. Now this audience is made up of both Republicans and Democrats, and the enemies of Israel should have no doubt that, regardless of party, Americans stand shoulder to shoulder in our commitment to Israel's security. So while I don't want to strike too partisan a note here today, I do want to address some willful mischaracterizations of my positions.

The Iranian regime supports violent extremists and challenges us across the region. It pursues a nuclear capability that could spark a dangerous arms race and raise the prospect of a transfer of nuclear know-how to terrorists. Its president denies the Holocaust and threatens to wipe Israel off the map. The danger from Iran is grave, it is real, and my goal will be to eliminate this threat.

But just as we are cleareyed about the threat, we must be clear about the failure of today's policy. We knew, in 2002, that Iran supported terrorism. We knew Iran had an illicit nuclear program. We knew Iran posed a grave threat to Israel. But instead of pursuing a strategy to address this threat, we ignored it and instead invaded and occupied Iraq. When I opposed the war, I warned that it would fan the flames of extremism in the Middle East. That is precisely what happened in Iran — the hard-liners tightened their grip, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected president in 2005. And the United States and Israel are less secure.

We will also use all elements of American power to pressure Iran. I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. That starts with aggressive, principled diplomacy without self-defeating preconditions, but with a cleareyed understanding of our interests. We have no time to waste. We cannot unconditionally rule out an approach that could prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. We have tried limited, piecemeal talks while we outsource the sustained work to our European allies. It is time for the United States to lead.

There will be careful preparation. We will open up lines of communication, build an agenda, coordinate closely with our allies, and evaluate the potential for progress. Contrary to the claims of some, I have no interest in sitting down with our adversaries just for the sake of talking. But as president of the United States, I would be willing to lead tough and principled diplomacy with the appropriate Iranian leader at a time and place of my choosing — if, and only if, it can advance the interests of the United States.

Only recently have some come to think that diplomacy by definition cannot be tough. They forget the example of Truman, and Kennedy and Reagan. These presidents understood that diplomacy backed by real leverage was a fundamental tool of statecraft. And it is time to once again make American diplomacy a tool to succeed, not just a means of containing failure. We will pursue this diplomacy with no illusions about the Iranian regime. Instead, we will present a clear choice. If you abandon your dangerous nuclear program, support for terror, and threats to Israel, there will be meaningful incentives — including the lifting of sanctions, and political and economic integration with the international community. If you refuse, we will ratchet up the pressure.

My presidency will strengthen our hand as we restore our standing. Our willingness to pursue diplomacy will make it easier to mobilize others to join our cause. If Iran fails to change course when presented with this choice by the United States, it will be clear — to the people of Iran, and to the world — that the Iranian regime is the author of its own isolation. That will strengthen our hand with Russia and China as we insist on stronger sanctions in the Security Council. And we should work with Europe, Japan and the Gulf states to find every avenue outside the U.N. to isolate the Iranian regime — from cutting off loan guarantees and expanding financial sanctions, to banning the export of refined petroleum to Iran, to boycotting firms associated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, whose Quds force has rightly been labeled a terrorist organization.

I was interested to see Sen. McCain propose divestment as a source of leverage — not the bigoted divestment that has sought to punish Israeli scientists and academics, but divestment targeted at the Iranian regime. It's a good concept, but not a new one. I introduced legislation over a year ago that would encourage states and the private sector to divest from companies that do business in Iran. This bill has bipartisan support, but for reasons that I'll let him explain, Sen. McCain never signed on. Meanwhile, an anonymous senator is blocking the bill. It is time to pass this into law so that we can tighten the squeeze on the Iranian regime. We should also pursue other unilateral sanctions that target Iranian banks and assets.

Finally, let there be no doubt: I will always keep the threat of military action on the table to defend our security and our ally Israel. Sometimes there are no alternatives to confrontation. But that only makes diplomacy more important. If we must use military force, we are more likely to succeed, and will have far greater support at home and abroad, if we have exhausted our diplomatic efforts.

That is the change we need in our foreign policy. Change that restores American power and influence. Change accompanied by a pledge that I will make known to allies and adversaries alike: that America maintains an unwavering friendship with Israel, and an unshakeable commitment to its security.

Now is the time to be vigilant in facing down every foe, just as we move forward in seeking a future of peace for the children of Israel, and for all children. Now is the time to stand by Israel as it writes the next chapter in its extraordinary journey."

Anonymous said...

AIPUSSY, has a PR problem.

January 26, 2009
The BBC's record is good, but it's wrong not to broadcast the DEC appeal
Joan Bakewell

There are many of us who have enjoyed long careers with the BBC. We have learnt our journalistic values within its doors; we have exercised judgment in matters of impartiality; we have taken responsibility for our own decisions according to its long tradition of journalistic ethics. The BBC's fine record is a matter of pride to us — its international reputation is something we cherish. When the BBC comes under attack we search first to understand and then defend its position. Even in retirement we are watchful to see those standards upheld. That is why there is shock at the recent decision made by the current BBC management not to broadcast the appeal by the Disaster Emergency Committee.

The BBC's motive is to safeguard political impartiality. But there is nothing political about misery at the point where large numbers of destitute people, many suffering the shock of bereavement, are in need of housing, clothing and food. Gaza's communities need their hospitals and schools restored, their infrastructure repaired. This needs to be done quickly. No politics about that. Thirteen charities, each with a fine record of dedicated service, are making the plea for our help. It is into their hands that we will send our donations. No politics there either. All the pre-conditions for a legitimate appeal are here: a humanitarian disaster, extensive suffering that can be alleviated, and an immediate call for help from international aid agencies. No other consideration enters in.

Last week I attended, with many old BBC hands, the memorial service for Charles Wheeler, which celebrated his outstanding 60-year career reporting on the world's inhumanity and speaking up for human rights. The Old Testament readings urged us to “comfort all who mourn... give them a garland instead of ashes, the oil of gladness instead of mourning”. Charles would surely have extended such humanity to the people of Gaza.

The BBC has to be seen to be impartial and resist pressure. It walks a fine line. But some of us who have served in its ranks, absorbed and shaped its journalistic code, feel the current decision is a wrong one.

Bewert said...

Re: I cut & pasted all the data from the doc, if you take the cut&paste and search you can find the shit. The page 91-92 that BP keeps talking about HAS NOTHING as always, BP's job is to feed the world shit, and keep them being mushrooms.

###

You know, you really are one of the stupidest motherfuckers I've ever had the pleasure of meeting.

Here, just for you: http://www.tuckermax.com

Check out this story. It's right up your "alley". And damn funny.

And I don't like that AIPAC speech anymore than you. But unless you suck AIPAC dick, you ain't getting elected. I, too, hope he pushes back at some point.

Unless the masses of American's push back (like the Spanish, say, who put 250,000 in the streets protesting the Gaza invasion) ain't no politician going to be able to fight back against the Zionest. They are like Mormon's on steroids.

Bewert said...

Page 90: Projected Statement of Indebtedness
Long-Term Debt Outstanding

TOTAL INDEBTEDNESS - CITY OF BEND AND BURA 6/30/08: $117,985,957

Page 91: Projected Statement of Indebtedness
Long-Term Debt Outstanding
TOTAL INDEBTEDNESS - CITY OF BEND AND BURA 6/30/09: $128,915,157

Page 92: June 30, 2007
Schedule of Future Debt Service

2007/08 $13,800,400
2008/09 $11,975,500
2009/10 $12,362,000
2010/11 $7,526,800 (you believe this?)

###

Seriously, do you even know how to read financial reports?

You're scared numbers are half of what we actually owe.

As a measure of debt vs. total budget--total budget is currently about $242M.

Bewert said...

Your scared numbers....

And I don't go wild over boys. Get over it. If you do, that's your thing.

Anonymous said...

>>I always wonder why, if trickle down was so good, did Clinton win on the slogan "It's the economy, stupid!"

Because there was a short recession 3 years after Reagan left office, nicely timed for Clinton to take advantage of.

Bewert said...

Are we nearing bottom, or is it just an illusion?

U.S. Existing Home Sales Rise on Record Price Slump

tim said...

>>Are we nearing bottom, or is it just an illusion?

We're closer to bottom than last month, but not "nearing" it.

You gotta be wary of seasonally-adjusted numbers. They are adjusted with seasonal numbers borrowed from normal times, and may not apply to the fits and starts of our recession.

Bewert said...

Re: Because there was a short recession 3 years after Reagan left office, nicely timed for Clinton to take advantage of.

###

That recession started around the time of Black Monday, in October of '87. Along with the concurrent S&L collapse (another great deregulatory effort) and the oil price rise during BushCo's First Iraq War, we had a recession.

Now whose policies were in place for all of these? Remind me again?

"It's The Economy, Stupid". A winning slogan considering the previous six years. Remember the Laffer Curve?


###

Yeah, Timmy. Plus the absolute numbers are not too hot in the historical context.

Did you see the other Bloomie article on Geightner opening up the spigots?

"Timothy Geithner, who may be confirmed as head of the Treasury today, will have the benefit of near record-low yields as he presides over auctions of as much as $150 billion of notes and bonds the next three weeks. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., one of the 17 primary dealers that are required to bid at the auctions, said last week the U.S. will likely borrow a record $2.5 trillion this fiscal year ending Sept. 30, almost triple the $892 billion in notes and bonds sold in fiscal 2008."

Turn on the stimulus--we'll deal with inflation when it comes! Actually, I think the Masters of the Universe would love to see some inflation, as it would decrease our debt load.

Sometimes I start thinking spending our way out of this mess as a nation is as spurious as building our way out of this mess as a town. There must be another way, one with some savings, spending on essentials and some luxuries, etc. One that might be more stable in the long run.

Anonymous said...

Amounts in this schedule do not include principal and interest payments on proposed debt that has not been issued.

BP your shit is from pg 99 and clearly has the above caveat, and its also from 2007, so what.

Page 92: June 30, 2007
Schedule of Future Debt Service

2007/08 $13,800,400
2008/09 $11,975,500
2009/10 $12,362,000
2010/11 $7,526,800 (you believe this?)

tim said...

>>Turn on the stimulus--we'll deal with inflation when it comes!

Crazy.

Anonymous said...

Debt Service Requirements

The amount of money required to pay interest on outstanding debt,
serial maturities of principal for serial bonds and required contributions to accumulate monies for
future retirement of term bonds.

Anonymous said...

Below is VERY interesting, and hows where the $12M debt service figure is coming from this all the city is allowed to pay by state law. Its 3% of the RMV of taxable property. So you can see why the city wanted RE to go up, up, up, now with down, down, down, the city can no longer borrow, and loans will be called.

*** pg 96

Legal Debt Limitation

Oregon Revised Statutes (ORS) 287.004 provides that the City may not issue or have outstanding at
any one time general obligation bonds in excess of three percent of the real market value (RMV) of
all taxable property within its boundaries. This statute makes specific exception to bonds issued for
water, sewage disposal plants and off-street parking facilities, as well as, special assessment bonds.
The City’s RMV for 2006-07 is $12,867,135,135 providing for a legal debt margin of $386,014,054
(note that this debt margin does not reflect the need to balance debt burden with ability to pay and is
not utilized by the City in assessing its debt capacity).

Anonymous said...

How about replacing this assumption with ZERO.


SDC Revenues

During FY 2006-07, commercial and industrial construction activity continued to be strong, however
the significant slow down in the housing market pushed up housing inventory levels and reduced
residential construction to a pace not seen since 2001 to 2003. For the 2007-09 biennial budget,
current average SDC rates plus a 3% inflation factor were used to project revenues.

Anonymous said...

2009/10 $12,362,000
2010/11 $7,526,800 (you believe this?)

*

Yes, because these numbers are simply 'legal' numbers that the city MUST print to NOT violate state law.

The 2009 number above is the max for 3% of the RMV, with that collapsing the city MUST print the $7M figure, now of course the problem is somebody still has to pay the $5M/yr loan cost, and the money ain't there.

SO what do you do?? DEFAULT BK, on the loans, there is no other option, you can't renegotiate as this is already the interest cost, and its already low.

The fucking problem is the CITY is already under-water in service debt, and in 2010 they're going to be running in violation of the law.

But books can be cooked like above, the entire budget is just make believe in order to meet state laws. There is probably a set of real books somewhere else.

Anonymous said...

* Amounts in this schedule do not include principal and interest payments on proposed debt that has not been issued.

pg-91


BP, your numbers go down because the assumption is the city never borrows anymore money, of course we know that borrowing is what is keeping Bend alive.

The fact is right now we're max'd out for debt-servicing, and the CAP is going down.

The notion of all the tables on pg-91 are bullshit, because they assume that there will be no future debt acquired.

Anonymous said...

pg. 87, so we know that the city is max'd out for debt, but whats insane is the sdc ratio to now going below 3.0, which would CALL most loans, but 'transportation' loans are exempt from 'rules', and thus the city can borrow all the 'transportation' money it wants, in other words, just keep borrowing and CALL IT TRANSPORTATION.

*** pg 87

The debt proposed for the 2007-09 biennium extends the City to its highest level of debt burden.
Based on conservative revenue and expenditure projections, the City will be at or near capacity for
Transportation System Development Charges (SDCs) and Water Reclamation with the bond issues
proposed.

Transportation construction bonds are currently repaid through transportation system development
charges (SDCs). With the proposed debt issues, debt service coverage is projected to decrease to
3.06 by the end of the biennium. Although transportation construction is financed through full faith
and credit bonds which do not have debt coverage ratio covenants, a conservative coverage ratio
should be maintained as SDCs are dependent on building activity and are not assured revenues.

Anonymous said...

Following is the intellectual back-bone of the entire BEND BUDGET (pg70). REHO's told them the numbers to USE!!!!

###

Discussions with professionals in the real estate development industry indicate that residential activity will
resume after the excess inventory is sold, however, for revenues that are affected by building activity (such
as development fees and permits, engineering fees and SDC’s) the City used FY 2002-03 and FY 2003-04
activity levels and trend-line projections to develop the 2007-09 Biennial Budget.

Anonymous said...

DEBT COVERAGE RATIOS

pg 87 ( final budget 2009/2010 )

Remember that term. All of BEND's loans are based on maintaining a ratio above a tolerance, typically revenue/debt > 1.5

Right now using the phony 2009/2010 numbers Bend is just a hairs ass above the min threshold,

Certainly the number employed are BULLSHIT.

Certainly loans will get called, and Bend Aa credit rating will drop to Bb, or F, within this year.

There is JUST too much fucking debt, and not enough revenue to cover the debt-servicing ( monthly payments ).

Today the city is robbing the reserve funds to pay debt, soon there will be no reserves.

The point is its NOT like the money is going to cops and firemen, its going to debt payments.

Why did the city borrow so much money? For JR? For buying land from the Bulletin?

Anonymous said...

http://www.ci.bend.or.us/depts/finance/budget/docs/z_Final_Budget_ALL_published.pdf

DEBT COVERAGE RATIOS

pg 87 ( final budget 2009/2010 )

Remember that term ( DCR ). All of BEND's loans are based on maintaining a ratio above a tolerance, typically revenue/debt > 1.5

Right now using the phony 2009/2010 numbers Bend is just a hairs ass above the min threshold,

Certainly the number employed are BULLSHIT.

Certainly loans will get called, and Bend Aa credit rating will drop to Bb, or F, within this year.

There is JUST too much debt, and not enough revenue to cover the debt-servicing ( monthly payments ).

Today the city is robbing the reserve funds to pay debt, soon there will be no reserves.

The point is its NOT like the money is going to cops and firemen, its going to debt payments. The city has peaked out its borrowing, debt-service is limited to 3% of the RMV of RE in the area, and that be $12M/yr, and we're there now. Thus the city can no longer 'borrow' to continue the ponzi. That is why the 'reserves' are BEND-GONE.

Why did the city borrow so much money? For JR? For buying land from the Bulletin?

Anonymous said...

>>Turn on the stimulus--we'll deal with inflation when it comes!

*

What choice is there? All western mercantile economies have ended this way for over 2,000 years, expect the USA to burn-out any other way?

Paper money, its just to easy print more, or in case of Rome to use cheaper metal's instead of gold. As long as you have strong police/military you can force the people to accept the paper.

But then one day even the cops don't want the paper because it no longer buys them food.

Then its game-over.

Anonymous said...

There is a rumor going around that I heard last night that Denton's loans he ran off on, may have broke the bank of cracker-ass, of course this bullshit as the amounts are tiny, but its interesting that those who have left are going to get blamed for the fiduciary failure of those who stay.

Of course just a month ago, all the Merenda regulars told me Denton would never leave Bend, ... ergo perhaps some boss-hoggs will leave, and no to like 1031 to a garzini hotel.

MrBruce said...

Page 92: June 30, 2007
Schedule of Future Debt Service

2007/08 $13,800,400
2008/09 $11,975,500
2009/10 $12,362,000
2010/11 $7,526,800 (you believe this?)

###


You're sacred numbers are half of what we actually owe.

###

That's ever so comforting.

We know one thing your FDS table above is simply the CAP authorized by city's for debt servicing to keep them from getting in over their heads in DEBT.

The entire 'budget' is cooked for the single purpose of proving that BEND is legal tender to the State of Oregon, and for investors.

The trouble of course is that these Books were cooked by ENRON type people.

This explains why BP's pal 'sonia@cityfinance' is so very fucking afraid, cuz she knows its going down, and hard.

hbm said...

All good things must come to an end. Jan. 20, 2009, marked the end of a conservative era.

Since Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980, conservatives of various sorts, and conservatisms of various stripes, have generally been in the ascendancy. And a good thing, too! Conservatives have been right more often than not — and more often than liberals — about most of the important issues of the day: about Communism and jihadism, crime and welfare, education and the family. Conservative policies have on the whole worked — insofar as any set of policies can be said to “work” in the real world. Conservatives of the Reagan-Bush-Gingrich-Bush years have a fair amount to be proud of. -- Bill Kristol in today's NY Times


Bill Kristol, the idiot son of neo-con guru Irving Kristol, is a prime example of what happens when somebody spends his whole life in right-wing "think tanks." He is so completely delusional as to border on psychosis.

At least he was honest enough to admit that conservatives "have been in the ascendancy" since 1980. That means that conservatives are largely to blame for the calamities we see all around us. (Of course the delusional Kristol doesn't see any calamities, only triumphs.)

But the best part of the column was a single line in italics at the bottom: "This is William Kristol's last column."

Out on his neo-con ass after one year. Good riddance. He can go peddle his right-wing bullshit on Faux News.

Anonymous said...

The city only has one choice to STAY alive, and that is to borrow money 'marked' for transportation, and that might explain why all the talk about Cooley and elsewhere, ...

The city is not legally required to maintain sdc-ratios for 'transportation' debt, they can borrow as much as they wish.

Obviously the city will continue to 'borrow' to pay the future 'debt service', and eventually 100% of bend's revenue will pay debt.

Certainly before that something has to give, but my reading of the budget is to plow ahead, and borrow money marked as 'transportation' shove it into the general-fund, and try to wait out the recession/depression.

MrBruce said...

prime example of what happens when somebody spends his whole life in right-wing "think tanks."

*

My experience is that these 'right wing think tanks' are just a way to employee non-useful people. So they can write about great things like 'zero tax' for the rich, incidentally behind every think tank is a rich guy.

It's not left vs right, but certainly with the NEW-DEAL the rich had to pay taxes, and they created the modern conservative movement to sell the notion of NOT taxing the rich.

Ok, so the rich got really fucking rich, and like homers wiki paste on the great-depression, now we're right back where we were prior to the NEW-DEAL.

Kristol has to say good bye, cuz the sponsors of these think-tanks are now broke.

But fear not, out of the ashes of OREO's NEW DEAL, will rise new right wing think tanks.

MrBruce said...

My experience is that these 'right wing think tanks' are just a way to employee non-useful people.

###

Not so different than the US education system, whose only purpose is to employee non-useful left-wing people. It's all about PORK, thats why it never matters.

MrBruce said...

So nobody cares about Bend, how about CACB & UMPQUA, anybody want to explain why CACB has a 31+ texas ratio, and Umpqua a flat 6, and we all here know that Umqua owns tons of BEND non-performing shit.

FYI - a texas ration is assets to non-performing, once non-performing exceed total that the TR is 100, and some actually have more non-performing than total assets.

So bring it on geni-asses of Bend. I mean, trusted Bend morons apologists of City Hall.

Anonymous said...

Obama inauguration: Words of history ... crafted by 27-year-old in Starbucks

• Chief speechwriter known as president's mind reader
• Young aide studied past inaugural orations

* Ed Pilkington in New York
* The Guardian, Tuesday 20 January 2009

Jon Favreau, head speech writer for Barack Obama

Jon Favreau, head speech writer for US Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama. Photograph: Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images

When Barack Obama steps up to the podium to deliver his inaugural address, one man standing anonymously in the crowd will be paying especially close attention. With his cropped hair, five o'clock shadow and boyish face, he might look out of place among the dignitaries, though as co-author of the speech this man has more claim than most to be a witness to this moment of history.

Jon Favreau, 27, is, as Obama himself puts it, the president's mind reader. He is one of the youngest chief speechwriters on record in the White House, and, despite such youth, was at the centre of discussions of the content of today's speech, one which has so much riding on it.

For a politician whose rise to prominence was largely built upon his powers as an orator, Obama is well versed in the arts of speech-making. But today's effort will tower over all previous ones.

It is not just that Obama has set an extremely high bar by invoking the inaugural speeches of Abraham Lincoln as his inspiration - admitting to feeling "intimidated" when he read them. It is also that, as he begins his term with the US in an economic crisis and two wars, he knows he needs to kick start his presidency with a soaring rhetoric that both moves and motivates the American people.

The tone of the speech could be decisive in determining how the public responds to his first 100 days, as Franklin Roosevelt's famous line "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself" helped to determine his.

Obama aides have let it be known that a key theme will be restoring responsibility - both in terms of accountability in Washington and the responsibility of ordinary people to get involved. Rahm Emanuel, Obama's chief of staff, talks of a "culture of responsibility" that would "not just be asked of the American people; its leaders must also lead by example."

In composing the high notes of the speech, Obama has leant on Favreau, whom he discovered almost by chance four years ago when the younger man was working on John Kerry's failed presidential bid. "Favs" has since studied Obama's speech patterns and cadences with the intensity of a stalker. He memorised the 2004 speech to the Democratic national convention which first brought Obama into the limelight. He is said to carry Obama's autobiography, Dreams From My Father, wherever he goes. As a result, last November when Favreau sat down to write the first draft of the inaugural address, he could conjure up his master's voice as if an accomplished impersonator.

That skill had been put to almost daily use in the 18 months of brutal campaigning on the presidential trail. Favreau would be up most nights until 3am, honing the next day's stump speeches in a caffeine haze of espressos and Red Bull energy drinks, taking breaks to play the video game Rock Band. He coined a phrase for this late-night deadline surfing: "crashing".

He crashed his way through all Obama's most memorable speeches. He wrote the draft of one that helped to turn Iowa for Obama while closeted in a coffee shop in Des Moines. For the presidential election, he wrote two speeches: one for a victory, one for defeat. When the result came through, he emailed his best friend: "Dude, we won. Oh my God."

The tension between such youthful outbursts and his onerous role has sometimes cost the 27-year-old. In December, pictures of him and a friend mocking a cardboard cut-out of Hillary Clinton at a party, Favreau's hand on her breast, were posted on Facebook to his huge embarrassment.

Obama is an accomplished writer in his own right, and the process of drafting with his mind reader is collaborative. The inaugural speech has shuttled between them four or five times, following an initial hour-long meeting in which the president-elect spoke about his vision for the address, and Favreau took notes on his computer.

Favreau then went away and spent weeks on research. His team interviewed historians and speech writers, studied periods of crisis, and listened to past inaugural orations. When ready, he took up residence in Starbucks in Washington and wrote the first draft. The end result will be uttered on the steps of the Capitol.

Obama's mind reader has crashed his way through yet another deadline.

• This article was amended on Friday 23 January 2009. Jon Favreau, age 27, is not the youngest chief speechwriter in the White House. He shares that honour with James Fallows, who served as Jimmy Carter's speechwriter at the same age. This has been corrected.

Marge said...

From Calculated Risk

Otishertz spotted this Ice Cream truck in Portland yesterday. Thanks for sharing!

Umpqua Bank received $214 million from TARP in mid-November.

They cut their dividend recently according to the Portland Business Journal:

Umpqua Bank parent Umpqua Holdings Inc., based in Portland, cut its quarterly dividend in December to 5 cents from prior payments of 19 cents per share.
At least we know what they are using the TARP money for: Free ice cream!

hbm said...

My experience is that these 'right wing think tanks' are just a way to employee non-useful people. So they can write about great things like 'zero tax' for the rich, incidentally behind every think tank is a rich guy.

Yep. Or more likely a bunch of rich guys.

Kristol has to say good bye, cuz the sponsors of these think-tanks are now broke.

Neh, they're well-funded and will continue to be -- in fact they'll probably get more contributions than ever. It takes a lot of money to catapult the propaganda that what's best for the 1-percenters is best for the 99-percenters.

Anonymous said...

Umpqua Bank received $214 million from TARP in mid-November.

*

Yep, and I bet they used that money to BUY the Clark Bank of Vancouver, WA. The next round of money they get well be used to BUY CACB.

Anonymous said...

Neh, they're well-funded and will continue to be -- in fact they'll probably get more contributions than ever. It takes a lot of money to catapult the propaganda that what's best for the 1-percenters is best for the 99-percenters.

*

Things are in disarray now, about the time this depression hits bottom, those hair-lips listening to Rush Limbaugh will want to hang his ass. It's important to be young & cool, my guess is that some smart think tank is figuring out right now to whip up the twenty somethings to the idea that the rich should pay no tax, our current leaders like limbaugh, and o'reilly, are simply too old to matter.

bruce senior said...

Well $12B was top for BEND's RMV for real estate, and Bend can borrow 3% of that, trouble is Bend couldn't afford the interest payments even if it wanted too.

Today we're down 50% of this 2006 high, given that median are now close to $200k, that were close to $400k. So today the legal LIMIT Bend could even borrow if it wanted to would be about $190M, which is fucking close to what they have borrowed.

What's killing BEND is the SDC ratio, and right now today, its below 1.5 the threshold of killing our credit rating. There is no hope increasing SDC revenue, they should have collected the revenue during the boom, but didn't but then the boom largely happened because the taxpayer subsidized the boom.

Today we're FUCKED.

***

Legal Debt Limitation

Oregon Revised Statutes (ORS) 287.004 provides that the City may not issue or have outstanding at
any one time general obligation bonds in excess of three percent of the real market value (RMV) of
all taxable property within its boundaries. This statute makes specific exception to bonds issued for
water, sewage disposal plants and off-street parking facilities, as well as, special assessment bonds.
The City’s RMV for 2006-07 is $12,867,135,135 providing for a legal debt margin of $386,014,054
(note that this debt margin does not reflect the need to balance debt burden with ability to pay and is
not utilized by the City in assessing its debt capacity).

Bewert said...

Re:
It's not left vs right, but certainly with the NEW-DEAL the rich had to pay taxes, and they created the modern conservative movement to sell the notion of NOT taxing the rich.

###

The first big don't tax the rich movement was in the 1920's, when the top tax rate went from 73% to 24% under TreasSec Andrew Mellon.

What we need to do is tax wealth creation as much as working. Hedge fund managers can make billions and only pay 15%.

senior 'depends' bruce said...

Homer,

A 1,000 times here I have told you KUNTS to read "the great depression" by Robert S. McElvaine, B.A., M.A., Ph.D.

It seems that entire wiki you lifted on to your blog is a simple minded synopsys is his book, for the 1001 time I highly suggest you KUNTS buy the book on amazon ( used of course ) and read it.

There is a whole chapter just on 1933 "Real estate paralysis", where buyers couldn't buy, and seller's couldn't sell.

We're there today, I think its a good model that 911 was the real 1929, and this depression is going to be long and deep and today we're about 1932, so this depression is going to expand out 2X linear in time.

Bewert or not to Bewert said...

Remember KUNTS today is Deschutes monday, cheap beer 4:30pm to close, and LAVA is buying.

You'll see me with Real-Bruce, he's the tall one that's bald and has no teeth, and I'm the old short one. You have to guess which one is master, and which one is blaster, but we'll be at the bar until lava runs out of money.

bewert or not to bewert said...

The first big don't tax the rich movement was in the 1920's, when the top tax rate went from 73% to 24% under TreasSec Andrew Mellon.


*

yeh, yeh, yeh, ...

Nobody paid much tax until income tax in 1916, and that is what raised the think-tanks your talking about in 1920.

Lincoln largely paid for the war, by allowing to have people buy their children out of the war for $500, before that most tax was 'tariff' tax.

So its easy to say that tax-opposition started in 1920, cuz 4 yrs earlier, there was nothing to bitch about unless you did import/export.

Stupid fucking subject, how come nobody wants to debate the BEND economy?? I mean debating US taxation history is fucking like arguing whose children are more attractive, ...

Revenue isn't the problem, take US education we spend more than anyone else in the world, take medical we spend more than anyone else in the world.

The problem is FUCKING CORRUPTION KUNTS. That is why I bitch so much about the THEFT of BEND public funds.

Anonymous said...

(note that this debt margin does not reflect the need to balance debt burden with ability to pay and is
not utilized by the City in assessing its debt capacity).

***

'Pay' who said we were going to PAY, we're just going to keep borrowing and passing millions, and ten's of millions to the BULL, to Knife-River(moss), ... to kuratek, to anybody that lobby's and elects their own poly-tick-ian, and want to pass millions to their sponsor.

Probably cute that we got Kathy Eckman back, the only one in there that bought the seat with her own money. She's been around forever, and knows all, ...

Of course today she's going to try to build us out of the HOLE we're in, ... It will be interesting to see what programs she starts cutting, because in order to service our HUGE fucking DEBT RATIO, we need to cut tons of shit in BEND.

Anonymous said...

our boyz are back in the news, looks like kalispell, MT; has been thrown to the 1031 wolves, ...


Summit 1031 Exchange one of several recent collapses in industry
Land Exchange’s Bankruptcy Sheds Light on Regulation Debate

Summit 1031 Exchange, a Bend, Ore., firm with a location in Kalispell, recently filed for bankruptcy. - Lido Vizzutti/Flathead Beacon
By , 01-22-09

The bankruptcy of an Oregon-based real estate exchange firm with a Kalispell branch office has shed light on – and raised questions about – the industry.

“I was shocked to find they weren’t regulated,” said Richard DeJana, a Kalispell attorney. DeJana is representing an area resident who suffered six-figure losses when Summit 1031 Exchange, a firm specializing in tax-deferred land deals, collapsed last month after using customers’ money to fund its owners’ endeavors.

“Now, when he asks me if I think he’ll be able to get his money back, I honestly don’t know what to tell him,” DeJana said.

Summit 1031 Exchange closed its doors – including its Kalispell branch office – and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in late December after announcing it has only about $13 million on hand of the $27 million it owes its clients. Rather than investing customers’ money in short-term, liquid securities, like most accommodators do, Summit’s principals had been putting millions of dollars into real estate deals, according to a posting on the company’s Web site.

The bankruptcy has left at least one local man out more than $1 million and may affect untold more here. Summit’s was one of a handful of similar scandals in the industry, and together they’re shedding new light on a business few people may know about and adding to a national push for more regulation.

Summit specialized in 1031 tax-deferred exchanges, a type of real estate investment named after a section of the IRS tax code. The exchanges allow investors to defer taxes on the sale of investment property so long as the proceeds from the deal are held by a third party, like Summit, and reinvested within 180 days in a similar property.

There are no federal regulations governing who can open a 1031 exchange company or what they must do to safeguard clients’ money. Most states, including Montana, do not regulate 1031 accommodators.

The exact number of qualified intermediaries is unknown: Under the law, a company can act as a 1031, but so can a friend. The trade organization Federation of Exchange Accommodators has more than 300 exchange firm members – eight of which are based in Montana.

After an exchange company in New York left more than 500 customers out $132 million in 2007, the Federation of Exchange Accommodators petitioned the Federal Trade Commission to apply registration and certification standards to the industry. The petition cited 23 cases involving $250 million losses.

Victims of abuse, including some here, have often voiced frustration with a system that required them to hand their money over to a third party but offers little protection against fraud.

But the Federal Trade Commission in August denied the request for more control.

“Frankly, they didn’t think it was enough of a problem in our industry that it merited their trying to step in and deal with it,” Hugh Pollard, president of the Philadelphia-based Federation of Exchange Accommodators, said. “Certainly, that’s good news, but it’s something we’d still support.”

The trade group is now trying to work through the IRS to get some standards and regulations implemented, Pollard said. Because of time and expense, another go at the FTC isn’t likely for a while, he added.

A handful of states, like Nevada, Idaho, California, Washington and Arizona, have implemented, or are considering, their own regulations – some of which are in response to abuses like Summit’s.

In October, California enacted minimum standards for 1031 facilitators. The new laws there prevent companies from combining clients’ money with operating accounts, or loaning funds to an affiliate. Facilitators there must also notify clients within 10 days if the company has been sold.

Prospective clients should ask 1031 exchange companies what kind of insurance they have, where their money will be invested and whether they will receive monthly statements, Pollard said. IRS employees said escrow and trust accounts are the safest way to park 1031 money, but those services require additional fees.

And while Pollard and the federation support more stringent guidelines, there’s little assurance that those would have helped Summit’s creditors, who are now beginning lengthy bankruptcy dealings and watching federal criminal investigators look into the company.

“People talk about regulation, too, but you look at this guy (Bernard) Madoff and he’s supposed to be regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission – a lot more muscle and power than we’re talking,” Pollard said. “Just because it’s regulated doesn’t mean everything will be perfect.”

Anonymous said...

Hola amigos. I know it's been a long time since I rapped at ya.

Ever hear of the Virginia Military District?

At end of Revolutionary War, Virginia didn't have any money to pay its soldiers.

So it gave them land. In what is nowadays called Ohio.

*

Fast forward to manana.

City has no money to pay its debtors.

What can it do?

Give them land. LOTS of land.

In a place called JR.

One square acre for each year of salary that is due.

*

What do you think of my idea?

*

Via con Dios!

Bewert said...

Re: The city only has one choice to STAY alive, and that is to borrow money 'marked' for transportation, and that might explain why all the talk about Cooley and elsewhere, ...

###

Sonia today:

"Bruce,
We have submitted projects for all the stimulus packages out there. Our City Manager's office has the lists of projects submitted."

Behind door #3: the Obama gravy train. I know there are some JR-oriented folks that are really hoping to get some help on the $40M Cooley/97 mid-term upgrade.

Bewert said...

Re:
Why did the city borrow so much money? For JR? For buying land from the Bulletin?

###

$12M Avion Water payout? Water and sewer upgrades that SDCs were too low to pay for? Two pieces of property from Knife River/TaylorCo?

Speaking of reserves, at the time of the first or second cutback one of the staff stated that the Planning and Engineering divisions went through $2M in reserves in a matter of months at the end of the peak. I'll have to find that in the minutes sometime.

Bewert said...

Homer, they have finger food at Deschutes Happy Hour?

Bewert said...

BTW, Moss was in Salem instead of the JRMB meeting last Thursday--something to do with lobbying?

Bewert said...

Re: BP your shit is from pg 99 and clearly has the above caveat, and its also from 2007, so what.

###

I didn't catch that caveat. That explains a lot considering the actual debt is planned to keep going up. I asked Sonia for updated numbers this afternoon, but haven't gotten them yet.

BTW, you are looking at the page number in the little Adobe page number window, I'm looking at the actual page numbers on the actual pages being shown in Adobe

Bewert said...

Change: Karl Rove's subpoena to the Judiciary Committee

(Word ver: crumbo)

Bewert said...

Credit crunch claims Iceland government after 'Household Revolution'

Who's next? My vote is Ireland.

The Masters of the Universe have really fucked things up this time.

Bewert said...

Kucinich channeling Ron Paul?

Anonymous said...

BTW, you are looking at the page number in the little Adobe page number window, I'm looking at the actual page numbers on the actual pages being shown in Adobe

*

Yes, your using actual photo-copy #'s, and I'm using PDF, lets be honest here, that the pdf #'s are useful, as this thing is not in numerical order, its a lot shit put together.

Anonymous said...

Homer, they have finger food at Deschutes Happy Hour?


*

There are only two deals on MONDAY,

1.) Beer for about $3/pint ( 20oz pint ) instead 4.50.

2.) The $12 burger is $5 on monday, but its not on the menu, you got to be a local to know.

3.) Of course the best deal, which also NOT on the menu is the basket of home-made chips, must better than kettle chips for $1 basket.
This is available always, but again NOT on the menu.

Anonymous said...

"Bruce,
We have submitted projects for all the stimulus packages out there. Our City Manager's office has the lists of projects submitted."

*

What the fuck was the last $200M when we didn't need it??

Do you KUNTS know that Sam Adams the day before he got outed announced a $500M 'stimulus' for PDX.

Too bad that these big junks of cash always go to the same people over, and over, and over, and over. Good times and bad.

Who would have fucking guessed, but don't worry DUNC says its not criminal.

Anonymous said...

City has no money to pay its debtors.

What can it do?

Give them land. LOTS of land.

In a place called JR.

One square acre for each year of salary that is due.


*

To date the Knife-River ( MOSS/MDU ) has charged city the special price of $800k/acre to clear the rock to make the JR land useful, this is why county sold the SHIT for all 1500 acres for one fucking dollar back in 1990.

So anybody that gets an acre @JR, better be a millionaire to make his acre useable.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Just out

MOST IMPORTANT STAT OF THE MONTH:

DEC 2008 UNEMPLOYMENT IN BEND: 11.3%

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Central Oregon jobless rates soar to records

Posted: Jan 26, 2009 11:21 AM


From KTVZ.COM news sources

Central Oregon unemployment rates soared to levels not seen in at least 18 years as 2008 drew to a close, with all three counties in double-digit figures, the state Employment Department reported Monday.

Here's the full news release:

Central Oregon Employment Situation for

December 2008

All three of the counties in Central Oregon saw their unemployment rates increase yet again from November to December, after increasing from October to November. Crook County continues to have the highest unemployment rate and it saw the largest month-over-month increase.

Crook County: The county's unemployment rose to 14.0 percent in December, up 1.7 percentage points from November. While the increase was large, it was slightly less than the 1.9 percentage point increase from October to November. The unemployment rate continues to run higher than the historical lows of a few years ago (5.6 percent in December 2006) and is the highest rate since at least 1990. The second-highest December rate was 1996's 11.6 percent.

The county lost 230 jobs in December, which is more than November's revised loss of 140 jobs. December's loss was considerably larger than expected, as normally about 50 jobs are lost in December.

The only industry to show job gains in December was educational and health services (+10), although several other industries held steady over the month. Industries reporting no change in employment included construction, retail trade, information, and financial activities. The private industry with the largest job loss in December was wholesale trade (‑150). Other industries that lost jobs in December were wood product manufacturing (‑30) and leisure and hospitality (‑20).

Both the federal and local government lost jobs in December (‑10 and ‑30, respectively), while state government reported no change.

The county recorded 540 fewer jobs this December than in December 2007 - a decline of 7.8 percent. This is the county's 17th consecutive month of year-over-year decline in employment. Industries showing the largest year-over-year declines include wholesale trade (‑22.1%), wood product manufacturing (‑18.4%), transportation, warehousing, and utilities (‑11.6%), and professional and business services (‑9.4%). The only industry to report year-over-year gains was educational and health services (1.5%). Several industries reported no over-the-year change in employment.

Deschutes County (Bend MSA): The county's unemployment rate increased from a revised rate of 9.8 percent in November to 11.3 percent in December. The rate stands 5.2 percentage points higher than one year ago and is the highest rate in December going back to at least 1990. The next-highest December rate was 1996's 8.8 percent.

In December, 180 jobs were lost, continuing the declines that began in September. The job loss was slightly larger than expected, as the county typically loses about 140 jobs during December. Overall, the county's employment has shown mixed trends this year, with employment flattening out during the spring and declining since the summer.

Several industries posted large employment losses in December. These industries included natural resources, mining, and construction (‑230) and durable goods manufacturing (‑150).

Overall, however, the private industry had a net employment gain of 70 jobs. Leisure and hospitality increased by 200 jobs as the tourism industry ramped up for the winter season. Other private industries gaining jobs included retail trade (+60) and transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+60). Following its trend over the last five years, educational and health services continued to add jobs in December (+30).

All levels of public-sector employment lost jobs in December. Local government led the way with a decline of 160 jobs - 50 of which were in local education. Federal government lost 80 jobs and state government lost 10.

For the second month in a row, Deschutes County posted an over-the-year decline in total employment. Several industries continue to show year-over-year expansion, including state government (8.8%), educational and health services (5.3%), federal government (3.8%), and retail trade (3.3%). This growth, however, was offset by losses in industries such as durable goods manufacturing (-10.2%), natural resources, mining, and construction (‑9.6%), and information (‑3.5%).

Jefferson County: The county's unemployment rate rose to 13.3 percent in December, from November's revised rate of 11.8 percent. The rate stands 5.1 percentage points higher than one year ago and it is the highest December unemployment rate dating back to at least 1990; the next highest was 1992's 9.8 percent.

Jefferson County lost 30 jobs in December - exactly the same number that are typically lost at this time of year. In 2008, the county's job performance was below normal nearly every month due to the slowing economy.

Two industries experienced employment gains in December: natural resources and mining and retail trade (+10 each). The industry sectors losing jobs were leisure and hospitality (-30), Indian tribal government (‑30), and educational and health services (‑10). All other public and private industries posted no net employment change over the month.

With the continued softness, the county recorded a 5.6 percent year-over-year job decline in December. The largest losses were in manufacturing (‑24.4%), construction (‑7.7%), and federal government (‑6.3%). Some industries experienced year-over-year gains, including transportation, warehousing, and utilities (+9.1%), state government (+6.1%), and educational and health services (+4.5%).

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Deschutes County (Bend MSA): The county's unemployment rate increased from a revised rate of 9.8 percent in November to 11.3 percent in December. The rate stands 5.2 percentage points higher than one year ago and is the highest rate in December going back to at least 1990. The next-highest December rate was 1996's 8.8 percent.

What they aren't saying is THIS IS THE HIGHEST UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN BEND SINCE RECORDS HAVE STARTED BEING KEPT.

Feb 1994 is the next closest at 11.1%, PERIOD


Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2008 7.5 8.2 7.8 6.7 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.8 6.7 8.0 9.7 11.3 -
2007 5.6 5.7 5.2 4.6 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.9 5.4 6.1 5.0
2006 6.0 6.3 5.6 4.6 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.8 4.3 4.5 4.7
2005 7.4 7.6 6.8 5.8 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 5.1 5.5 5.8
2004 9.0 8.7 8.2 6.6 6.3 6.6 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.9 6.2 6.3 6.8
2003 9.2 9.4 9.0 8.3 7.7 8.0 7.3 6.9 6.7 6.8 7.3 7.1 7.8
2002 9.6 9.6 8.8 7.7 7.0 7.2 6.9 6.9 6.7 7.1 7.8 7.9 7.8
2001 7.1 7.7 7.1 6.0 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.6 6.2 7.4 8.1 6.5
2000 6.9 7.1 6.4 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.6 4.9 4.5 4.7 5.4 5.4 5.4
1999 8.5 8.8 7.8 6.3 5.6 5.8 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.7 6.2
1998 9.3 9.0 8.9 6.7 6.1 6.7 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.8 7.2 7.2 7.3
1997 10.3 10.8 9.7 7.6 7.0 7.3 6.8 6.6 6.3 6.5 6.1 7.1 7.6
1996 9.5 10.2 9.8 8.0 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.6 6.5 7.8 8.8 8.8 8.1
1995 7.7 8.2 7.4 6.4 6.2 6.2 5.8 5.8 5.7 6.2 7.1 7.0 6.6
1994 10.0 11.1 10.0 7.6 6.8 6.8 6.2 5.9 5.5 5.7 5.8 6.1 7.3
1993 10.2 11.0 10.1 8.0 7.6 8.0 7.4 6.9 7.1 7.4 8.1 8.0 8.3
1992 9.9 10.4 9.5 7.8 7.3 7.7 7.2 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.9 8.3 8.2
1991 7.6 7.9 7.4 6.3 6.1 6.4 5.9 5.9 6.4 6.7 7.8 7.7 6.8
1990 6.8 7.0 5.8 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.3 4.6 4.7 5.7 6.4 5.4

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The county's unemployment rate increased from a revised rate of 9.8 percent in November to 11.3 percent in December

Note how Nov was revised HIGHER (of course), and probably so will Dec... and my prediction of 11.4% will be DEAD ON!

In your face, INACCURACY!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And note what happened in the Dec preceding the Feb 1994 (previous) record high of the past 2 decades.

Dec 1993 unemployment was 8.0%, and proceeded to climb 3.1 percentage points, or about 40%.

That imputes 15.7% by next month.

I don't expect THAT, and the correlation is obviously not perfect every year. But that tells you that 14-15% is TOTALLY POSSIBLE. And THAT is the WORST ECONOMIC situation this area has seen in a generation.

And we're just at the beginning of this thing.

Folks, don't believe anyone who says this is about over, or wants to start making premature comparisons to 1982 or whatever. This thing is just getting started. 20% unemployment is totally possible, and in my book it's probable.

How will $396K medians look then? Disregard all intimation that we will return to The Good Olde Days anytime soon. Most of the people reading this blog will DIE before we hit $396K again.

Never again in our lifetime.

Anonymous said...

Sooooo.... I should just ignore the boners everyone had today about the increase in housing sales? What do you think happened to the inventory? The sales vs drop in inventory numbers don't match. I think people are pulling the houses, waiting to see if they get a last minute repreave from Comrade Sam and if not...bye, bye house.

Marge said...

>>>But that tells you that 14-15% is TOTALLY POSSIBLE. And THAT is the WORST ECONOMIC situation this area has seen in a generation.<<<<

My bet is true 25% unemployment by August.

Those figures don't include the RE, contractors and mortgage types that can't collect money from the state. I ran some data on REHO pay checks. Only 40% got more than 1 check in 08. That's 800ish that didn't. I don't know how all that computes for unemployment rates but it is devastating another 800+ lives..
Bean, Bullets and Booze.

Did you all go the Chile Cookoff at the D Sunday? The place was standing room only. Free Food!

LavaBear said...

>>> I should just ignore the boners everyone had today about the increase in housing sales?


Existing Home Sales Increase in December
Existing Home Sales (NSA)
Annual Existing Home Sales

Go read those. It's a good start.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Only 40% got more than 1 check in 08. That's 800ish that didn't. I don't know how all that computes for unemployment rates but it is devastating another 800+ lives..

That's UNDEREMPLOYMENT, and in the New Fangled Employment Stat's of G&ee-Dub, that does not go into the unemployment numbers.

We ain't got a monopoly on the Kool-Aid.

I think we might hit 20% unemployment & just hover there for a few years. You will then see bend start to evacuate... just like lower Michigan. Unemployment = Outflight. Low home prices won't induce buyers at that point... there won't be buyers. There won't be buyers because there are no jobs.

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