Sunday, January 11, 2009

The Collapse of Bend, Continues...

Well, it's coming fast & furious now, Folks.

A seeming swarm of layoffs from all corners. Epic Aircraft & Jeld-Wen should come as no surprise. But Cascade Heatlhcare? That stuff is supposed to be immune, right?

No, seems when you do not have money, that visit to the doctor that used to be required can become "elective" pretty quick. You won't see a lot of folks out China Hat Road way clogging St Chas waiting rooms.

Nope, nothing is immune, not healthcare, not recreation, nothing. We've seen store closings of little guys (Westside Video, Bond Street Market, childs clothing seller Bonkerz), big guys (Office Depot, Linens N Things), and we'll see more in the near future of all kinds (Gottschalks, Cessna, City of Bend, The Bulletin, Les Schwab).

Retail is just the "face" of a slowing economy. There's plenty of "back office" type businesses closing; little public face, but quite a few jobs lost just the same. Even our little local Gubmint is in a constant state of layoffs.

We're at 10% unemployment, businesses are closing so fast it's hard to keep count, we've watched our local medians drop from $396,000 to $226,000. OK, this is the shit storm this blog has been yammering on about for 2 years as INEVITABLE. It's here. This is it. And NO, it is not even close to ending. The damage is not even close to being done.

So what would you do, if your own personal life looked this shaky? Do you fall back on (hopefully) saved up reserves? Do you keep piling up the money in a Federally Insured bank account, if you're lucky enough to still have a job? Do you scale back your eating out? Do you scale back the wine from $40/bottle to $15? Do you actually, God forbid, start cutting some of this stuff out entirely?

Or, do you borrow to the last of your ability and buy a new SUV? Do you expend the last of your reserves on building a fence around your back yard? Do you go for broke, and throw it all down on a new investment house with negative cash flow for as far as the eye can see?

See, to me, the answers to these questions are just ridiculous. It's pretty obvious. You STOP spending. OK, you do that whether you still have an income source or not. There are some people who do this innately. They're called Rich People. Well, they are at least financially insulated. People I know who are doing well right now have been saving their pennies. And I mean pennies. They don't make a King's Ransom. But they do save, quite a bit more than most people. They aren't really "cheap", they just have "lean" tastes.

But not our City Council. Not our local Paper. No.

No, they are advocating that we all spend as much as we can as fast as we can.

Yeah, we'll get great stuff, like a shed to house our broken down bus fleet. Or some blown up rock out in the Juniper Ridge badlands.

Costa is trying to convince us that we should run out and BUY cars with incentives that actually don't exist West of the Rockies. And by gum, with medians in the low $200's, "Some interest rates also at historic lows, could drive buyers back into Bend market".

Uh huh. Read the piece, and you'll find that "Some" interest rates applies to Bill Gates' FICO, not yours. Costa just doesn't get it.

Brucey posted in the comments that we're getting 100+ NOD's a week. That's 100 people (well, maybe not quite, but you get the idea) who will not be able to buy shit on credit for 7-10 years. You can lower the rates to ZERO (or less), and these people WILL NOT get extended one cent.

The Fed can (and has) pushed the interest rate/monetary policy string as far as it can (rates at 0%), and nothing has changed. What's funny is that this country is simply returning to "normal". We're returning to fairly "normal" credit restrictions.

But there's the rub. For about 7-8 years we extended credit to "non-normals", people who could NOT afford it. No income to afford the debt service. So how did it go on for all those years? Easy, simply "co-mingle funds", ala Summit 1031. Make "refi" money your New Income Stream. All that nasty old loan debt, is replaced by an even bigger loan, and what's great, is I Get Paid To Do It! Old $350K loan replaced by $500K refi loan and 2 years from now with a crooked appraisers help, I get another $175K, ad infinitum. Presto, Huge Income, No Work, Forever.

Well, the Minsky Moment arived on this Enormous Teetering Edifice, and the whole thing began toppling the middle of last year. And NO WHERE did it stand taller, grander, more magnificently than Bend Oregon. No where. It literally DEFINES this place. Scam piled on graft piled on deceit piled on fraud piled on schemes.

No where in the USA is the local economy more exposed to the crushing forces overwhelming our national economy than right here. I've said it before, Sit Back And Witness The Horror, Ladies And Gents. You are about to see an entire small city rip itself to pieces.

The Hollern/Moss/Costa Triad is crumbling. Hollern drank the Kool-Aid and bought Ironhorse & Yarrow. Moss financed that, and much, much more. Costa is in a 100% Dead industry, and is desperately trying to hold the buggy-whip edifice that is The Bend Bulletin together.

Again, you are about to witness a town completely implode on itself like nothing that has happened to any major town in the USA in 80 years. It's going to happen right here. This town will be the stuff of Legendary Collapses. This town will be the stuff of future editions of "Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds".

You're seeing it now. Our unemployment rate is at 9.9%. That's just amazing, but it will get Far Worse. It's going to get worse than you or I thought possible. The Viscious Cycle of the Great Deleveraging will take down HALF this town.

Of course, Costa will tell you with the Last Dying Breath of The Bulletin that Aspe... errrr uh, sorry, Bend is made up almost completely of multi-millionaire transplants from Saudi Arabia, Dubai or somewhere, and so employment doesn't really apply to this place.

Ummmm, OK, a little test. I work for a living. Do you work for a living? Do most of the people you know work for a living? Of course, I do know retirees around here. But not many, certainly not many in proportion to the number of people I know who Have To Work For A Living. This is a WORKING TOWN. Employment DOES matter.

And Bend has NEVER had a decent employment base. This place is built on low-wage shit jobs. And those are being lost in waves. No big deal, it's always been that way. But now we're losing the small, core base of family-wage level jobs. Fuck Gottschalks, we're losing jobs at St Chas & Les Schwab corporate.

Head over to BendBB (anon proxy ONLY!), and check out recent price changes. Used to be that you'd see only a few price cuts in the double digits. Now their practically ALL double digit percentage cuts in price. And it's worse than it appears. Some of those homes have been flipped between Realtors like the crack-whores of RE that they are. Desert Skeeze listings can be counted on to have changed hands several times.

When you look at the DOLLAR CHANGE in prices, you are looking at INCOME REDUCTIONS. These reductions USED to be INCOME GAINS, and these gains fueled Deschutes County growth for the better part of 30 years. This place slowly but surely went from one of the most undervalued to The Most Overvalued RE market in the country. The whole REFI-AS-INCOME game was played NOWHERE more intensely than it was here. And it was played far, FAR longer. In fact, a very precious few can attest to even pretend to remember the Bad Old Days of the laste 70's. This Game has been going on for 3 DECADES in Deschutes County. Not 5 years. Not 10 years. 30 YEARS.

Don't think the Great Unwinding will be over here when the rest of the USA is done, it won't. Here's the point:

There won't be a recovery here. Not in the way you think about it.

Remember last year, early, when the market started cracking here? People who dodged the bullet renting (Timmy, etc) started talking about buying at fantastically lower prices? Like "$250K"?

OK, so we all know NOW that is a suckers game. It's become clear. But that Speculative Mindset is STILL HERE. The idea that I will BUY AT THE BOTTOM in Bend.

And what? What comes after? It's unspoken, but it's there...

Yes. That little SPECULATIVE VOICE that tells you that YOU will make a great deal on a house... and then... the market will recover... AND YOU WILL GET RICH! Yeah!

OK, this very vague and almost unspoken mindset subtley infects EVERYONE HERE. Everyone reading this blog probably has some deep-seated desire to scoop up the bargain of a lifetime at what seems to be a ridiculous bargain prices.

BEWARE. OK. This is NOT going to happen.

Here's a little chart from the Jap Bubble:
You can see that once the collapse began, it was still going strong 17 YEARS later. Bend is going to have a Hockey Stick decline. It'll fall for years & years. And then it'll just flatline. Dead as a doornail, no Big Recovery, no Return to Normal, no Speculation, no Good Times.

The malls will be half empty, as will downtown. Most of the STD's ringing the Eastside will have been sold off piecemeal, and will have weed-infested half-built shitshacks sitting on them. HALF the retail will CLOSE. HALF the restaurants will close, at least. Cascade Business News is GOING TO CLOSE. The Bulletin is GOING TO CLOSE. Either Lowes or Home Depot will close. All these consumerist fueled nightmares are going down.

There isn't going to be a recovery here. It'll be like living in a depressed little version of Detroit, where the Heyday is over. Never to return. You will need your little shit job to pay for the little shit house on your little shit lot. And you will not make any money EVER on it. EVER.

I'm telling you folks, you will NOT recognize Bend in 10 years. Many, if not most won't be able to recognize it, cuz you'll have left.

OK, if you are thinking of buying RE, I ask you to think again. We're NOT EVEN CLOSE to fair value. Values are PLUMMETING. Rent-to-own ratios are STILL ridiculous. This town is going to go bankrupt. Industry & retail are being GUTTED as we speak. We're in a precarious period where it looks like a place you'll "want to be" for the long haul. But it's not going to be for long. Would you want to live in inner city Detroit at any price?

Because that's what Bend is becoming. And medians BOUGHT at $225K will seem like a HORRIBLE, TERRIBLE ERROR in judgement 7-10 years from now. Medians aren't going to $125K for no reason. They are going there, and they will STAY THERE, for abundant reasons.

No local incomes to support anything more. Burns-style entertainment. No restaurants. No fun places. Completely uncertain job prospects. No opportunity. Just straight depression. You WILL NOT want to be here.

What to do:

  • Keep renting. Do NOT buy.
  • Pile up the cash. Don't BUY ANYTHING.
  • Cling to a paycheck as long as you can. If it's already gone, YOU LEAVE town.
  • List your EXCESS RE Now. And you mark it down BELOW MARKET. It'll be 20% lower in 12 months.
  • Start looking for INCOME PROSPECTS outside of Bend. Keep your eyes open.
  • Sell your cars. Sell your other toys. Sell your crap. Keep the money.

Speculative Bend is done. Over. We're in Survival Bend now. No one makes DEALS anymore. No sexiness, no flash. What 's befallen Summit 1031 will BEFALL THIS TOWN. Utter collapse, with NO HOPE OF RECOVERY EVER.

It's time to HUNKER DOWN.
DO NOT BUY ANYTHING
CONSERVE YOUR CASH.
REMEMBER THE FOUR B'S

IT IS OVER
"I just come from Bend Orygun, where they done titty fucked me atop Volo till I couldn't take it no more! I'm certainly glad I stayed as long as I did, with no visible ill-effects!"

664 comments:

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LavaBear said...

What, no funny pictures? I demand funny pictures when you delivery the bad news.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

State economist: Double-digit unemployment likely
by Richard Read, The Oregonian
Friday January 09, 2009, 4:20 PM

Oregon's unemployment rate could easily exceed 10 percent as the recession deepens, state economist Tom Potiowsky told a sellout Portland City Club audience today.

Potiowsky, who directs Oregon's office of economic analysis, predicted Oregon job losses persisting through this year's third quarter, with probably no real economic upturn until mid 2010. Already, the state's unemployment rate reached 8.1 percent, seasonally adjusted, in November.



"Undoubtedly I think that rate is going to go up again," Potiowsky told the luncheon audience of 275 in a downtown Portland hotel.

The state and the nation are seeing a very rapid drop, he said, into a much deeper recession. He expects the state budget will take a bigger hit than expected as the economy deteriorates and tax revenues fall.

The state can't run a deficit, Potiowsky noted, as the federal government can. But it can borrow for capital projects and raise fees, as Gov. Ted Kulongoski favors.

Oregon could raise gas taxes, said Potiowsky, noting that the recent drop in oil prices could make a hike more palatable. And Oregon officials can ask the Obama administration for a healthy piece of the expected federal stimulus package, being that states face more pressing needs than automakers and deserve help more than Wall Street executives.

Potiowsky said Oregon's status as "the center for the green movement in the U.S." will ultimately help it pull out of the recession.

Potiowsky criticized U.S. Treasury Department officials for bailing out financial institutions without attaching sufficient conditions. He said the Federal Reserve would have to get more creative than just dropping interest rates. He said he worries that the U.S. pendulum could swing from inadequate financial regulation to "too much reregulation of industries."

If the Legislature decides to suspend corporate kicker-tax credits again, Potiowsky said, the state's rainy-day fund would be a perfect place to put the money. He said tax breaks for renewable-energy projects are costing the state far more than predicted, but he doubts legislators will decrease the subsidies during the upcoming session.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The Oregonian gives it to us straight, while The Bulletin tells us TO KEEP IT IN PERSPECTIVE:

Downtown Bend: Trying to keep it all in perspective

January 11, 2009 4:00 am

Walk around downtown Bend these days and it’s easy to feel alarmed about the health of Bend’s heart, not to mention the overall patient. It’s the locked doors and darkened....MORE

This link is BUSTED right now, but it's pretty easy to figure it out given Costa's record:

"Hey, sure, if you look around & pay attention to The Facts, it looks pretty bad.

But keep things in PERSPECTIVE:

I still have a job at The Bull. I still suck Hollern shlong daily. And Bledsoe will still jerk off a donkey on top of Volo for 50 cents. Bend is still a paradise."

Anonymous said...

I think the guberment and Omabomba, after buying all the default loans on the books and foreclosing, will then employ people to bulldoze the shit shacks and thus create "housing demand" or just declare them public housing and ship in the section 8. In LA back in the 90's, section 8 housing was created in a place where there were lots of available land and those receiving welfare were bused in to get their checks from Palmdale/Lancaster.

Duncan McGeary said...

You'll be coming for my head.

Ducks and runs.

Hey, I've always been a contrarian, and when he came in all doom and gloomy, I gave him the positives....

I DID say LONG run.

But, yeah, for my store, I'm still in better shape foot traffic wise that I was in the past, and I AM situated right where the new development will help.

Not to underestimate the downturn, but I feel like Pegasus is in a good place.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

What, no funny pictures? I demand funny pictures when you delivery the bad news.

Done and done.

Anonymous said...

Kids alone for days after Oregon murder-suicide

Madras, Oregon, (AP) 1-09

It had been two days since anyone had seen or heard from Hannah Crowe and Julian Wallulatum.

Three of Crowe’s children had been playing outside Jan. 1 and 2nd, so nothing seemed wrong, said Andrew Smith, a neighbor.

But on Jan 3, the kids knocked on his door, Smith said. The eldest, an 8-year-old girl, did the talking.

“The oldest one said, I can’t wake my mom up. I can’t wake my mom and dad up, ‘cause I think they’re still passed out, but I can see blood on my mom’s leg, under the door,” Smith said in an interview with KTVZ-TV of Bend.


Smith walked over to his neighbor’s apartment. He smelled something terrible and heard Crowe and Wallulatum’s 9-month-old girl crying. He kicked down the locked bedroom door to discover the couple dead in the same clothes they were wearing New Year’s Eve. The baby was beside them; her shirt stained with their blood.

“My knees, they wobbled,” Smith said. “It just took it out of me. I almost fainted.”

Officers were called to the apartment at about 6 p.m. Jan. 3.

Madras police Sgt. Dennis Schneider said Crowe, 26, and Wallulatum, 21, were fatally shot. Schneider declined to release more information about the apparent murder-suicide until the investigation is further along.

He said both victims were members of the Warm Springs tribe.

Smith said the state Department of Human Services took the baby into protective custody, and the other children are with relatives.

hbm said...

What 's befallen Summit 1031 will BEFALL THIS TOWN. Utter collapse, with NO HOPE OF RECOVERY EVER.

"Ever" is a long time. This town has had deep recessions before and has recovered.

I agree, though, that this one will be longer and deeper than any we have yet seen because the whole global economy is in the crapper. And we will never, EVER return to the "glory days" of the Bubble. And in the long run that's a good thing -- it could mean that working people once again will be able to afford to live here.

BTW your predictions of doom do not distress me -- my family has very little debt and our investments have been very conservative -- but it does distress me to see the evident relish with which you make them. Why do you rejoice at the prospect of seeing your town and your neighbors become paupers? Schadenfreude is an ugly emotion.

bruce said...

Don't listen to Homer he's full of shit I see the ray of hope in Bend.

I see the BAT-BUS.

There will be jobs for everyone, good paying jobs. Jobs with Pensions. PERS pension, the best kind of pension.

Support the Bend Area Transit district and you will be taken care of until the day you drop dead.

Good paying jobs for all those who desire.

Ignore Homer he doesn't have the vision.

Bend will become a socialist paradise. We'll have a socialized Merenda, we'll force Denton to stay and run it and the city of Bend will subsidize good paying jobs for all.

The City will socialize the auto malls on I-97, we're gong to socialize the Bend Bulletin, the finest US newspaper.

Tomorrows Bend will be a beacon of hope to the world. "Change" is coming to Bend. Where everyone has a good paying public service job, with tier-1 benefits, and a PERS retirement package. We'll continue to retire at fifty, and get free medical care for life, and subsidized shopping at the BEND Metro CMX.

Ignore HOMER

Marge said...

The good times are over...let the depression set in and make Bend into what it always should have been. Poverty with a view, is what Bend has been forever. A few scant years of greed and we return to the norm.
Hunkering down with the 4 B's is the only smart thing to do.

You can't say it loud enough for all to have it sink in..STOP THE MADNESS..STOP SPENDING...JUST STOP IT.

Anonymous said...

Why do you rejoice at the prospect of seeing your town and your neighbors become paupers? Schadenfreude is an ugly emotion.

*

HBM, you have to understand that for ten years these newbies to BEND have been shoving down our ass this 'Bend is Exceptional' rhetoric.

Bend is like MT-B 100% perfection in Marketing, and 1% effort for delivery.

Thus it is exciting to see Hollern, Moss, Costa, Switzer grovel in the mud of debt, and impending suicide.

If all of you read "Grand Popular Delusions", you'll see that after the bubble's pop often those who were the loudest and most ostentatious, end up being town beggars.

HBM a beggar himself, is being sarcastic.

Let's remember that over 90% of the newbies in this town came here to get rich quick, and they got poor slow. Those that stick around MUST know it will take ten years just to stabilize the collapse.


All our BEAUTIFUL hustlers will be gone, certainly HOLLERN will be dead, from old age. Moss will not survive, Switzer will find a new fast growing town to hustle.

Anonymous said...

Costa will retire and become exactly like HBM, he'll work for free at a local alt-paper ( alt to BULL ), until he drops dead.

HBM will retire for real, having turned the torch of opposition over to Costa.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

...it does distress me to see the evident relish with which you make them. Why do you rejoice at the prospect of seeing your town and your neighbors become paupers? Schadenfreude is an ugly emotion.

Huh? Rejoice?

Psychological projection
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In psychology, psychological projection (or projection bias) is a defense mechanism in which one attributes one’s own unacceptable or unwanted thoughts and/or emotions to others. According to Wade, Tavris (2000) projection occurs when a person's own unacceptable or threatening feelings are repressed and then attributed to someone else..[1]

An example of such simple behavior would be: blame for failure, making an excuse for your own faults by projecting the cause of said failure onto someone else, hence blaming them and not accepting the reality of the failure. One would argue that you are projecting the threatening feelings.

Anonymous said...

Schadenfreude is an ugly emotion.

*

What your FUCK-HEADS @ the BULL&SORE have done to BEND in the last 20+ years is fucking BEND-UGLY.

Let's NEVER fucking forget the relentless 'bob woodward' over selling of bend mtn-biking and planting story's in Outside Magazine is what created the BUZZ in the first place.

The SORE&BULL were front and center in creating PR&MARKETING BUZZ that was BEND. All paid by COVA, e.g. Bend taxpayer.

Today HBM asks "why the self-hate", NO HBM we don't hate ourselves, we hate your masters, and yes we ENJOY watching them fall, we enjoy it very much.

bruce said...

Huh? Rejoice?

*

My neighbors will not become paupers, everybody on my street ( I live near Newport Mkt ), has their house paid for, most of us are retired. Most of the kids on the street have good jobs. The average person paid $30k for their home 20+ years ago, and their paid off. Most people on my street didn't suck equity.

So HBM, its your CALIS that came to your BOB-WOODWARD siren that bought the bait, the people who bought and flipped in the last ten years, the people who played 1031 with the best CPA's & Lawyers in Bend, the people with BIG Suv's, and plastic surgery. The people who run all the Salons and gallery's and real-estate shops downtown,, ...

No HBM we don't hate our nieghbors, we hate YOU HBM, and the kind of people you while at the BULL, and SORE brought to BEND in the last 20 years.

The HOPE is that all these beautiful people the the paid pied pipers of Bend ( SORE&BULL ) brought to BEND will NOW leave, given that their is only SHIT & not fold at the end of the Bend rainbow.

bruce said...

The HOPE is that all these beautiful people that the paid pied pipers of Bend ( SORE&BULL ) brought to BEND will NOW leave, given that there is only SHIT & not GOLD at the end of the Bend rainbow.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Schadenfreude

So, wht you think about those Summit 1031'ers, hbm? Huh? It's all good? They just playing the game & the game went bad?

No. No, I DO want THOSE fuckers to suffer. I got all kinds of SCHADENFRUEDE for those fuckers. I hope they go down so fucking hard, they never get up.

But towards "regular" folk? No. Towards people who held back on the insanity, toiled away in anonymity, saved their meager pennies and STILL GOT THEIR ASSES FIRED? No. No schadenfruede there. None.

But what about the GRAY AREA? What about those who bought 3-4 homes for fixer-upper or flipper purposes? I KNOW (and like) people who did this. Several, in fact. And I have NO ILL WILL towards them. I don't WISH ILL UPON THEM.

But "ILL" is what they're going to get. They are getting it now. You play, you pay. THEY did this to THEMSELVES. The signs were there & many decent people STILL decided to play.

Now they will pay.

THAT doesn't mean I WANT IT TO HAPPEN. This thing is going to happen whether I am here documenting it or not.

You accusations of SCHADENFREUDE are so far off, it's baffling. I am NOT gleefully CELEBRATING this collapse.

What am I doing? I am WAVING MY HANDS WILDLY, trying to get people to NOT COMMIT the last of their resources to a lost cause. They should SAVE & CONSERVE. Spending NOW is a HUGE MISTAKE. There's NO Schadenfreude here.

Your statement tells me more about you than me.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

we hate YOU HBM...

Not true for me at least. You seem an OK dude. Confused on this particular issue & my feelings about it.

But an OK & relatively intelligent dude, nonetheless.

Duncan McGeary said...

"It's time to HUNKER DOWN.
DO NOT BUY ANYTHING
CONSERVE YOUR CASH.
REMEMBER THE FOUR B'S

IT IS OVER"

You left off "THE END IS NIGH!!"

Funny to see the two extremes this morning.

A POSITIVE BLITZKRIEG
at the Bulletin:

HOUSING OPPORTUNITIES.

DOWNTOWN BEND: Trying to keep it all in perspective.

REDMOND DOWNTOWN: NEW FACES.

bruce said...

Homer,

You notice that HBM hasn't said a FUCKING WORD about 1031? On the SORE, not a fucking word.

He's always bashing stupid fucking Pug's.

Neuman gave the RNC tons of stolen client money, "MAKE THE RNC RETURN THE MONEY", HBM has the story of the fucking year, does he run it?? HELL NO.

WHY?

Cuz 1031 was a major part of the BEND-BUBBLE. These GUYS the ENTIRE TEAM-1031 were brought in all together in 1991, and setup shop, and by 2000 were up and running the 1031 exchange & reverse exchange and did 1,000's of deals, deals that would have NEVER sold all the fucking land on the fringes of the UGB.

Team-1031 are controlled by some of the BIGGEST players in BEND, TEAM-1031 brought tons of BUSINESS to BROOKS&MOSS.

You'll never see HBM do real reporting or investigation, he is incapable.

Bend-1031 is the fourth leg of the BEND-BUBBLE.

1.) Easy-Bush post 911 money (PUG)
2.) Defer SDC post 1998, hollern smart-growth
3.) taxpayer paid PR&MARKETING COVA, planted storys about BEND#1 in outside mag, ...
4.) Bend-1031, reverse exchange, brought 1031 money in from all over the world to 'invest' in BEND (HOLLERN) land.

(1) was common to everywhere, 2&3 to BEND, and (4) was Bend's secret weapon, this is why Neuman will NEVER spend a day in jail, BUSH will pardon all 1031 operatives nationally or OBAMA.

bruce said...

Not true for me at least. You seem an OK dude. Confused on this particular issue & my feelings about it.

But an OK & relatively intelligent dude, nonetheless.

*

Just being silly homer is right, we love you hbm, as only a faggot can love.

bruce said...

Your statement tells me more about you than me.

*

In many ways HBM is more adolescent than US, over at the source he called for jailing and imprisonment of bloggers who slander and call people child-molesters, and then over here on BB2 HBM calls rush-limbaugh a child molester.

Who is the real hbm, my guess is he's being sarcastic at both places.

But 'HBM' could do some good in town, but he chooses not to, instead, he just does funny's about dumb fucking PUGS (SMITH), over & over on his SORE-EYE, ...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Funny to see the two extremes this morning...

Yet between the two Alternatives, this blog & The Bulletin, who's been right?

The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow crowd?

Or the Fucking Crazy Clapboard Maniac?

You know what? You SHOULD BUY A HOUSE IN BEND RIGHT NOW... under the following conditions:

1) You can pay ALL CASH.
2) You can lose 50% of your purchase price WITH EASE, and sustain absolutely NO ILL EFFECTS to your own personal balance sheet.
3) You do not plan on selling EVER, or the next 25 years, at least.

I know NO ONE who fits these parameters. Not even real rich types.

Anonymous said...

Hate the ACT, but not the PERSON??

When I say 'hate' and HBM, I do hate the shit he's done as an employee of the BULL & SORE.

Had more people stepped up and called the bullshit, perhaps things wouldn't have been insane.

So we're to despise HBM for empowering the SORE&BULL for around 20 years, but love the man??

DUMB FUCKERS in BEND aren't to be despised, cuz that would be schaden-freud, ... something as bad as anit-semitism, ...

HBM is a master at playing the politically-correct CARD.

tim said...

(carry over from old conversation)

The case I know about directly is that nurses who have an actual pension plan (defined benefit) were actually cashed out of that and given a replacement defined contributions plan (in this case maybe a 403(b)--not sure).

What did these nurses, who thought they had a pension that would last the rest of their lives know about a shitty defined contributions plan with a lousy set of choices and a bunch of high fees. They SHOULD have been given an annuity in the pension was shutting down, given their career-long expectation that they had a pension.

tim said...

"(Timmy, etc)"

Yeah, I know, it's pretty clear we are ALL losers now.

Like buster warned, any one of us may make it to the other side with our money, but the great hulking collapse of everyone else pins us under their fetid corpses.

tim said...

>>HBM, you have to understand that for ten years these newbies to BEND have been shoving down our ass this 'Bend is Exceptional' rhetoric.

Yeah, I'm with you there. These were not innocent victims. Bend was full of fakers and posers and schemers. People who didn't want to work. They have to fall. It's good that they fall. They were absolutely 100% guaranteed and doomed to fall. The sooner the better.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

DUMB FUCKERS in BEND aren't to be despised, cuz that would be schaden-freud, ... something as bad as anit-semitism, ...

HBM is a master at playing the politically-correct CARD.


The only diff between Lib's & RePugs is that despite BOTH being reprehensible ASSHOLES, the gap between what Lib's are and what they think they are is HUGE. It's called The Hypocrisy Gap.

RePugs are ASSHOLES, and they know it.

Lib's accuse others of INTOLERANCE all the time, for example... and yet they are UTTERLY INTOLERANT OF DISSENT regarding that accusation.

hbm's statements here re RePugs act as innumerable proof, in his case. Libs are The Least Tolerant Human Beings on Earth. But they'll NOT HEAR OF IT. Never had a single LIB even consider the idea THEY ARE WRONG.

tim said...

>>Had more people stepped up and called the bullshit, perhaps things wouldn't have been insane.

Are you the one that told me in no uncertain terms the other day that you can't stop a bubble?

Anonymous said...

Are you the one that told me in no uncertain terms the other day that you can't stop a bubble?


*

No, APU, I think that was Ned Flanders, he goes on about bubbles being like fads, that just happen and can't be stopped.

I'm the one that says all bubbles are engineered.

That said bubbles are limited by the 'greater fool theory' bend has run out of fools.

Money is like water, it will find a way out, good money will always run from a bad situation.

I also wasn't the one who suggest that the city can or should privatize and provide public transportation.

What I said was that public transportation in ORYGUN only exists to build empires of good jobs, with good pensions, so that the elite can ride on the backs of taxpayers.

Anonymous said...

hbm's statements here re RePugs act as innumerable proof, in his case. Libs are The Least Tolerant Human Beings on Earth. But they'll NOT HEAR OF IT. Never had a single LIB even consider the idea THEY ARE WRONG.

*

Homer, I haven't ever heard you admit you were wrong, the other day when HBM demanded proof of your assertion that DUY had supported the bubble, and called you on that assertion there was silence, I stepped forward to confirm that HBM was right, and that I thought you had confused DUY of OR, with YUN of NAR.

I think that its good that we all learn from each other, but likewise I have never, ever seen HBM admit he was wrong about anything, ... I don't think for him its a lib/pug thing, I think that HBM is a real fucking elitist.

That's why he support HOLLERN, MOSS, Eckman, costa, switze, ... He really wants to be invited to the partys forever.

Anonymous said...

>>HBM, you have to understand that for ten years these newbies to BEND have been shoving down our ass this 'Bend is Exceptional' rhetoric.

Yeah, I'm with you there. These were not innocent victims. Bend was full of fakers and posers and schemers. People who didn't want to work. They have to fall. It's good that they fall. They were absolutely 100% guaranteed and doomed to fall. The sooner the better.

****


Let's remember here why HBM is frantic that we love these 'loser-fallers', these are the people who keep the BULL&SORE in business, ...

People like HBM don't want us to BASH calis, or to bash those that were 'fakers & posers', we're supposed to smile at our tourists, and say 'Bravo on that condo purchase'.

HBM&Switzer, fear and tremble that the word will get out that we're all laughing our ass off at all these posers and frauds that lost their life savings on blowing up the bend bubble.

But these people like the SORE/BULL team themselves are also responsible for turning BEND into a fucking nightmare of congestion and big-box stores.

Anonymous said...

Like buster warned, any one of us may make it to the other side with our money, but the great hulking collapse of everyone else pins us under their fetid corpses.

*

I think HOMER has long said when we hit bottom, you'll not want to be here.

That said, folks like me&dunc will weather the storm, but staying home, and reading a book by a fire.

Just stay away from apartments, shopping malls at night.

The only advice I have for those who were smart not to play is don't display wealth, dress down, drive an old car, never display wealth, live in a simple house, don't draw attention to yourself.

I remember during the last recession a bunch of my friends were high spenders and got followed home and robbed while they were asleep. During bad times people watch for ostentatious spending.

It's essential to appear to be just another of the walking dead in public. If you wish to survive.

Duncan McGeary said...

Of Course, you COULD stop a bubble. It's just that no one ever does. Too many people making money.

What I said is, you can't START a bubble. (Shit, Buster, they're trying ALL THE TIME! Every new business, every new product, thinks they are going to take over the world.)

What it comes down to, people think they can CONTROL a bubble, manipulate a bubble. The other guy will always be the last fool, not you.

And bubbles ALWAYS end badly, lower than where they started, with everyone at death's door.

Only a lucky few will escape before it all collapses, and a few others will get out intact.

And yes, I've equated fads with bubbles, that's my premise, if you don't buy it, I understand.

I've read POPULAR DELUSIONS. A more boring and dry book would be hard to find....

Anonymous said...

The case I know about directly is that nurses who have an actual pension plan (defined benefit) were actually cashed out of that and given a replacement defined contributions plan (in this case maybe a 403(b)--not sure).

What did these nurses, who thought they had a pension that would last the rest of their lives know about a shitty defined contributions plan with a lousy set of choices and a bunch of high fees. They SHOULD have been given an annuity in the pension was shutting down, given their career-long expectation that they had a pension.

*

Well like I keep saying, post 1980's the private-pensions were liquidated, converted from defined benefits to 'managed plan'. The way it worked is public-unions (PERS) used KKR ( big junk bond funds ) as fronts to buy companys, take the pension cash, and replaces with paper IOU's. They had to convert the private pensions because the money is gone.

Today if you want a 'real pension' you got to get a government job, which is WHY they're going to BUILD a BUS-BAT empire here in METRO-BEND. The lucky beautiful people of bend will all get 'government jobs' high paying jobs with defined life time pensions.

The private sector pension of the USA is fucking BEND-GONE.

That's why I'm big on RE for retirement at least you can retire at 40 with a few houses and live off rental income. FUCK INVESTING!!! Its a SHAM played on baby-boomers TRILLIONS were saved and lost the biggest CON 1980-2008 was robbing the baby-boom on his self-managed 'pension' now the money is BEND gone.

Most americans will once again return to working until they die, or if they're lucking and connected, they'll get a government job, with a REAL retirement plan.

NATIONAL SOCIALISM is here today NAZISM.

Trouble of course is its ALL a ponzi at FEDERAL level, not enough taxpayers to pay all these FED people, that's why the FED now prints money and hands it out. All off budget.

The last bastion of theft is of course city's this is why BEND is being robbed blind by MDU, and MOSS brazenly being paid $200k/yr for every $10M that MDU gets.

Something always gives eventually all of the cops & firemen in BEND will lose their pension, and the city-manager will be paid $300k/yr.

Anonymous said...

What I said is, you can't START a bubble.

*

Jeebus dunc, just let go, I could start a fucking bubble anytime I wish.

Let me tell a story as a kid I saw in EAST LA, back in the 50's at a park.

There was a guy playing cards, and if you picked the right card of three you got back $20 on a $10, and I was watching the winner(s) scream with joy, ... and soon there were 100 people around placing bets, ... when it was all over the card-guy handed a bunch of money to the original 2 or 3 'winners'. It turned out that the entire event had been orchestrated and in a 1-2 hour period they had taken in a ton of cash.

See the whole card game had been orchestrated and the early winners, had brought bystanders into the game.

Bubbles are created all the time in public. If you don't see this you are fucking blind.

Self-Sustained bubbles of an enormous magnitude are pure luck.

But HOLLERN knew after 1986, that there would be another bubble, all of us RE players in BEND know its 20 yr avg cyclic here, always been so, ...by 1991 HOLLERN had everything in place, ... by 1998 'smart growth' was in place, folks saw the high-tech bubble in 1999, a lot of people knew that RE would be the next bubble.

Like I keep saying ... 1,2,3,4

(1) easy-money bush post 911
(2) deferred SDC's, pure profit for builders
(3) COVA: pr&marketing of bend paid by taxpayer
(4) 1031 exchange - reverse brought them in from all over

All of 1-4 above came together at the same time (1) of course was un-forseen but it just threw a ton of money on the table, everybody knew there was cyclic bubble, but nobody saw this magnitude with the easy-money.

That said, and I REALLY THINK THAT YOU BEING A DUMB FUCKING LIB, miss the point.

That HOLLERN lobbied the PUGS for easy money,

That NEUMAN lobbied the PUGS NOT to regulate 1031 ( allow commingled funds )

All these players in BEND that run the show MOSS,HOLLERN, COSTA, they're all PUGS they ALL lobbied for deferred or free SDCs, easy-money, non-regulated 1031's (TIC). None of this was a fucking accident or FATE.

Anonymous said...

I've read POPULAR DELUSIONS. A more boring and dry book would be hard to find....

*

Well that's why you can't read science.

Pop-Del is dozens of chapters your telling me the chapter on burning witches in Salem wasn't fascinating?

Bullshit dunc, you haven't read the book, and if you did you skimmed, you were bored, ... you don't like reality.

Your a sci-fi guy, you like fake worlds truth bores the fuck out of you.

Duncan McGeary said...

You and I are never going to agree on this, Bilbo. We have different world views. You see Evil Genius, and I see Chaos.

Ordinarily I'm a great believer in cause and effect, but when it comes to bubbles, I'm an agnostic.

I think they're a mystery.

I could be wrong about this, but even if it's true that bubble are created, who decides what becomes big and what doesn't?

So it becomes a moot point.

I'll give you this much. It is possible to recognize a bubble early, to promote it, to be part of the TIPPING POINT, and making it really happen.

The biggest benefiters to the bubbles, are people who were accidentally (on purpose? Luck goes to the prepared?) positioned.

In Bend, you have the Hollerns, the Coats, the Wards, the Miller, sitting on what had been, up until 15 years ago, fairly worthless property.

The other people who can profit are the few survivors of the last bubble who have no consciouses and are willing to screw people in the new bubble.

And you have a few survivors like me who are just trying to survive with their businesses and integrity intact.

But as Tim said, we'll be buried under fetid corpses....

Duncan McGeary said...

Bullshit dunc, you haven't read the book.

I just told you, I did read the book.

Must be nice to ignore everyone elses reality.

Duncan McGeary said...

I gagged my way through it.

The only interesting parts were the South Sea bubble, and the Tulip Madness.

It was like reading The Gangs of New York. You force your way through because there are some fascinating elements.

But you wish a modern writer would update the info in a more entertaining fashion.

Duncan McGeary said...

"Jeebus dunc, just let go, I could start a fucking bubble anytime I wish."

Ummmm, go right ahead?

Duncan McGeary said...

"Um, go right ahead?"

Spend a fortune of time and money trying to create a bubble.

If you succeed, you will be hailed a genius. If you fail, we'll never hear from you.

Like I said, it begs the point -- why do some things take off and not others? It can't be just brains, and money.

It's something more mysterious.

In your view, I'd have to say that the housing bubble inflaters were awfully nice to wait for the Nasdaq bubble inflaters to burst first.

One bubble at a time? Benefiting only one element?

Accident explains it more, fertile ground, maybe, but the EXPLOSION (not just 'hot' product, that can be created by advertising, but BUBBLE magnitude is way, way bigger.

Unaccountably hugely delusional.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

"Jeebus dunc, just let go, I could start a fucking bubble anytime I wish."

I agree with the Dunc-ster & it's really a matter of semantics.

You've described The Short Con -- ripping off a few individuals with a Dog & Pony Show. THAT is easy.

A True Bubble has some sort of feed-back mechanism, whereby early participants make out extremely well & even later suckers. Large societal-scale bubbles almost always involve leverage, and the gains are structural in nature (home prices gains make riskier & riskier loans possible, and so prices go up, and so refi's make buying more possible, and prices go up...). So a large number of uncoordinated selfish individuals start acting largely in unison.

I would say Madoff was NOT a bubble, but a Short Con that evolved into a Long Grift by fortuitous nature of the economic circumstances.

Maybe a matter of semantics, but 3 card monte ain't a Bubble, to me. Madoff is 3 card monte gone parabolic. Jap RE, NASDAQ & US housing... those were bubbles.

Duncan McGeary said...

If ten thousands monkeys set out to create a bubble, and one succeeds, is he lucky or a evil genius?

You could write a book about how this one evil genius monkey figured it all out, and find all the reasons in hindsight.

I guarantee you there are ten million monkeys out there right now, trying to create wildly successful, delusionally profitable trends or product.

General Mills right now is expending millions on product development and advertising, trying to create the hottest cereal ever.

Ford is trying to convince you their next model is the new Mustang.

And so on.

It's the "Sam Walton" is a genius school of thought.

If you start with 1000 stores 50 years ago, one will end up being the biggest. Then we can all go back and see why, and give it all kinds of importance.

But to me, it's like asking why Saturday is the busiest day of the week in retail. Oh, because people are off work, or whatever.

But what if the busiest day was Tuesday, then we'd find all the reasons.

And alternative explanation is:

ONE OF THE DAYS OF THE WEEK, BY DEFINITION, WAS GOING TO BE THE BIGGEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

It's simple statistics.

So, yeah, Walton did some things right, but if it hadn't been him, it WOULD'VE been someone else. And we'd be calling them, CHEAP SHIT FROM CHINA, either way.

And Target would be trying to position themselves as the classier Walmart, but it would still be, "WE ARE COOLER THAN WALMART, BUT WE HAVE CHEAP SHIT FROM CHINA, TOO"

tim said...

Dunc,

The beginnings of the housing bubble were underway before the Nasdaq bubble popped. It just didn't really come to a head until investors had given up on stocks and focused on Real Estate as their next savior.

So, yeah, kinda one bubble at a time is the way it works, because you need lots of participants, and they can't be distracted by something else.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Ya know, hbm, what grinds my fucking cheese, is all these Johnny Come-Lately's who are now spouting the old, "I think we all knew it couldn't last..." bullshit.

What! The BULL was (and sometimes IS) FULL OF ARTICLES BY RE EXPERTS (and other interested parties) saying IT WOULD LAST FOREVER.

Bends entire media spectrum NEVER FOR ONE FUCKING SECOND ever stated that Bend MIGHT NOT BE EXCEPTIONAL. That we might succumb to the "slow down" elsewhere. Not a single person, not one time.

What really rolls my eyes, are these BULL interviews of RE EXPERTS who say, "I think everyone knew it couldn't last..." FUCK YOU! Fucking LIARS!

This town & its media were OVERWHELMINGLY POPULATED with RE-types, contractors, speculators, Editors In Chief, and other herd-following FUCKWADS who WENT ALONG WITH POPULAR OPINION.

BEM's original blog was pretty thin with commentary at the outset, that said this fucking thing was doomed. The VAST MAJORITY said IT'D GO ON FOREVER, AND IF YOU DIDN'T SEE WHY YOU WERE A DUMBFUCK.

The ACTUAL foretellers who got this DEAD FUCKING RIGHT FROM DAY 1, can be counted on one hand. The ones who got it 100% WRONG number in the THOUSANDS.

But Bend media has NO PROBLEM acting like the people they interviewed have been RIGHT ALL ALONG. What a load.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Ummmm... has there been ONE SINGLE DAY in the past 2 weeks when SKIING hasn't beenb on PAGE ONE of The Bull?

bruce said...

Re: This town & its media were OVERWHELMINGLY POPULATED with RE-types, contractors, speculators, Editors In Chief, and other herd-following FUCKWADS who WENT ALONG WITH POPULAR OPINION.

###

Were?

And they just successfully took over the City Council.

On the housing bubble, you also have to remember Bush basically stopping all regulation and the constant push for more and more shakier and shakier mortgages to create all those derivatives that were being traded back and forth, along with the sidebets on them. That enabled the entire mess. And made a lot of Wall St. folks incredibly rich.

The fact that after their top level Ponzi scheme inevitably blew up they successfully pulled a couple of trillion out the the US taxpayer, with virtually no oversight, is simply fucking maddening. TARP and all of the related programs haven't done a fucking thing to help Main St.

hbm said...

Ummmm... has there been ONE SINGLE DAY in the past 2 weeks when SKIING hasn't beenb on PAGE ONE of The Bull?

Actually today's front page had lots of hard-hitting enterprise reporting. I especially liked the story about the birds that stay here in the winter. Pulitzer material!

Anonymous said...

Tuesday, December 16, 2008
The Talmud, the Stock Market and Bernie the Goniff
by Michael Hoffman
Copyright © 2008. All Rights Reserved

Bernard L. Madoff has run off with the store so to speak -- the store of cash that is, which Judaics from Steven Spielberg to Elie Wiesel had stashed with this agent of of the world's second oldest profession, whose patron is that hoary old rascal who Shakespeare dubbed Shylock and the am-haaretz on the Lower East Side call the goniff.

I hesitated writing this column because the acolytes of Wilhelm Marr are coming out of the woodwork pointing to the Judaic ethnicity of Madoff, as if there are not a legion of gentile crooks and con-men running amok in the stock market these days, fleecing peasantry and gentry from coast to coast. A crook is a crook, whether Catholic, Hindu or Talmudic, and in my view they should all be hanged with an equal length of rope.

Madoff's enormous heist (do my eyes deceive me when I grok the sum of $50 billion?!), interests this newshound precisely because it undercuts a stereotype of the Jew-haters: that Judaics are always the "smart money," evincing a fiduciary adhesion surpassing the strongest bonding agents in Das Kapital's marketplace: always robbing gentiles and profiting communally from the rip-off.

This sub-cellar stereotype is actually misdirection emanating from a resonance of rabbinic propaganda that has been covertly seeded in right wing ranks ever since Hitler chose the Protocols over Entdecktes Judenthum as his movement's signature reference work.

Contemporary professional anti-semites push a post-modern version of this disinformation when they maintain that Judaism, or its potent offshoots, Judaic culture and tribalism, always defraud gentiles while enriching Judaics. This is sheerest ignorance reflecting a sound-bite knowledge --of the little bit is dangerous variety -- of the posek's sacred Torah SheBeal Peh.

Contrary to the received opinion, Judaism is not good for Judaics. Any religion that inculcates cheating God is going to end up having its followers cheat each other. They may cheat the gentiles first, but sooner or later they'll give each other a haircut too, and not just on Lag B'omer.

Judaism runs the gamut from one-upmanship over God to the enslavement of married couples by the torturous and labyrinthine halachos of Niddah (laws on menstruation). S'iz shver tsu zayn a yid ("It's no fun being a Judaic" --my translation).

It is certainly true that Orthodox Judaism teaches that under certain circumstances, the Neshama HaElyonah-deficient subhumanity otherwise known as the goyim are fair game for every imaginable theft and deception.

Furthermore, Orthodox Judaism holds that even God can be fooled through the superior brain-power of the lawyer-like posek ha-dor. Kol Nidrei is but one of many institutionalized examples of a lawyer's loophole created so as to defraud God of promises that were made to be broken.

Business ethics are equally compromised. Honesty is not highly prized in Judaism if it threatens the standing of the rabbis or the fortunes of the tribe. The creepy Khazars who ran the kashrut slaughterhouse in Iowa are only the most recent example of this praxis.

In William N. Grimstad's magisterial, book-length flight of Celinean prose, Talk About Hate, (Colorado, 1994), he offers the world-historic insight that Judaism's "officially sanctioned covert practice" and "contempt for us gullible marks" leads to the "inevitable moral abasement that this sort of treachery fosters in its practitioners."

Judaism does not entail only deceiving non-Judaics; at its core it is deeply enmeshed in a gigantic web of self-deception. Shoel U'Meishiv: a Judaic defendant bribes a gentile judge not for the sake of evading a just sentence but only where a judge would otherwise pronounce "an incorrect ruling." BT Sanhedrin 54b and BT Ketubot 11b: when a Judaic male has intercourse with a little boy under the age of nine, it's not sodomy, because it's not a "significant" act since, by the Gemara's own definition, sodomy with a boy under the age of nine cannot be sodomy. Mishnah Nedarim 3:1: "He who desires that none of his vows made during the year shall be valid, let him stand at Rosh haShanah and declare, 'Every vow which I make in the future shall be cancelled."

The goniff Bernie Madoff is not a renegade. He is the terminal Talmudic man that the Jewish self-haters who created Judaism have constructed from the golden calf which they have worshipped in preference to Yahweh, for more than 3,000 years. Bernie's prodigious swindle proves a point which this writer has been making against intense opposition from the Henry Ford wing of the Right: the biggest victims of Judaism are not gentiles but Judaics themselves. That's why the world's most virulent Judaic-haters, the Protestant fundamentalists and the modern Vatican pontiffs, encourage Judaics to remain in their synagogues, while exalting Orthodox Judaism as truly representative of a divine and eternal covenant.

As a function of Judaism itself, Madoff has brought misery down upon the heads of his fellow Judaics. For those who have eyes to see: "anti-semitism" was borrowed from Wilhelm Marr in order to disguise the long history of this communitarian torment.

To understand this paradox will require a paradigm-shift away from everything the agents of the rabbis have seeded in our ranks for hundreds of years. The words of truth are often paradoxical: those who would save Judaics from the Madoffs of the world must necessarily save them from Judaism itself.

Contrary to the bubbe meises told to the bochurim, the Esau who hates Jacob for all eternity ("Halacha hi beyoduah she'Eisav soneh l'Yaakov"), is not the authentic follower of Yeshua the Nazarene; rather he is the authentic exponent of the Misheh Torah and the Mishneh Berurah.

Ethical behavior ("mitzvos bei Adam L'Chavero") is so often found lacking in Talmudic business practices contracted even between Talmudists. The man who will cheat God and the gentiles who sustain the nation that harbors him, will cheat his co-religionists with equal impunity, as Yeshiva University, the Elie Wisel Foundation for Humanity, Norman Levy, the UJA, Mortimer Zuckerman, the Jewish Federation of Greater Washington, the North Shore-Long Island Jewish Health System, Rabbi Haskel Lookstein's Ramaz School, the Jewish Community Centers Association of North America, the Carl and Ruth Shapiro Family Foundation, the Jewish Federation of Palm Beach, SAR Academy, and Spielberg's Wunderkinder Foundation, are all learning to their dismay.

A ready means of destroying Judaics would be to suppress any violence or vandalism against them and leave them to rabbinic Judaism. Without an "anti-semitic" alibi to distract them from their religiously-institutionalized penchant for self-destruction, the Bernie Madoffs of their world would channel their inner-Esaus and reduce Judaism's adherents to a collection of feuding bankrupts.

Only a lover of Judaics would endeavor to dissuade them from their toxic and self-annihilating theology, society and culture which generates predators possessed of the dizzying manipulative skill, remorseless mercantilism and "inevitable moral abasement that this sort of treachery fosters in its practitioners" of a Bernard L. Madoff.

Michael Hoffman is a former reporter for the New York bureau of the Associated Press and the author of the underground bestseller, Judaism Discovered: A Study of the Anti-Biblical Religion of Racism, Self-Worship, Superstition and Deceit, now in its second printing, in spite having been banned by Amazon.com (the only book about Judaism which has that distinction).

hbm said...

I have never, ever seen HBM admit he was wrong about anything,

I was wrong to support the Wall Street bailout. Aside from that I can't remember anything I have taken a public position on that I was wrong about. If you can point some out to me I will admit I was wrong.

I have never been one who maintained that the RE bubble would go on forever; I have consistently said that the insane growth we had in Bend in the late '90s and early '00s was not sustainable.

hbm said...

These were not innocent victims. Bend was full of fakers and posers and schemers.

And many of those fakers and posers and schemers have been here for decades. It wasn't the newbies who really inflated the bubble -- it was the GOBs who own the local real estate firms and the appraisal firms and the mortgage brokerages and the construction companies -- and, of course, the land. Those people control the politics of Bend, always have, always will.

So the fury against "newbies" and "Calis" is somewhat misdirected.

tim said...

hbm,

Yes, but those Calis and Portland 2nd homers knew what they were going. And we had scads of local "little guys" buying multiple houses with nothing down. Huge impact on prices when the little idiot schemer will pay ANYTHING because he has a 0% down loan.

So blame all around, sure.

Anonymous said...

So blame all around, sure.

*

Yes, but blame the PUG's for lobbying the SHRUB to de-Regulate 1031, and MTG to the point that a hair-lip could buy 4 homes for nuttin down, where every hair-lip in Bend was a 'retired' flipper in 2004.

I remember 2004 like yesterday, and everyone at deschutes brew-pub had quit their job, and everybody was buying houses and selling them the next day for $50k profit, and it was going to happen forever.

But let's NOT forget it was Bend-1031, HOLLERN, and MOSS that lobbied BUSH post 911 to OPEN THE FUCKING easy-dumb-money floodgates.

Anonymous said...

Contrary to the received opinion, Judaism is not good for Judaics. Any religion that inculcates cheating God is going to end up having its followers cheat each other. They may cheat the gentiles first, but sooner or later they'll give each other a haircut too, and not just on Lag B'omer.

*

Well its a lot like BEND, or any ponzi scheme, you can rob the goyim, but eventually you run out of suckers, so Jews started fucking Jews.

Who would have guessed?

Anonymous said...

On the housing bubble, you also have to remember Bush basically stopping all regulation and the constant push for more and more shakier and shakier mortgages to create all those derivatives that were being traded back and forth, along with the sidebets on them. That enabled the entire mess. And made a lot of Wall St. folks incredibly rich.

*

Don't BLAME SHRUB PUSSY, DUMBYA was only doing what the RNC told him to do, and MOSS, HOLLERN, NEUMAN all paid the RNC well to do gods work, and de-regulate 1031 (TIC) and MTG.

It's no fucking accident that Moss&Bend-1031 are all jeebus freaking bible thumps.

The lord in Bend works in strange ways.

tim said...

Also blame mortgage deduction, capital gains tax breaks on houses, and every politician, Rep and Dem, who conspired to get minorities into houses with crazy-ass loans.

Anonymous said...

What was dunc's point I never know he says stupid shit then flips the next day.

Some stupid shit like fads and bubbles are same, that a bubble is like a hoola-hoop craze, ... then today dunc said that bubbles can't be stopped.

The class book on bubbles is 'grand pop and delusion'. In that book there is a bubble called 'salem witch hunts'. WTF kunts the witch deal was about burning witches? A bubble?

Ok, heres the story the accused died naturally but what they don't tell you is the accuser got a percentage of the estate. So it got wicked everyone was accusing everyone of being a witch, and lot of people died and a lot of people got rich.

OK, ... it was a FULL ON FUCKING BUBBLE.

Then one day some of the foaming at the mouth christians talking in 'tongues' started accusing the 'JUDGES' of being witches, see had witch had a trial in a court of law.

Well as soon as judges started being accused of being a witch the whole thing ended abruptly.

Imagine that.

Now it could have been the same with our Bubble. Someone could have sternly SAID STOP in 2002, no more zero-down loans to un-employed Mexcians, but NOPE didn't happen cuz everybody was making money.

Also it didn't hurt the ruling class, as they were going to make a fortune when all the cheap ARM's did the reset.

... So the bubble went on until it ran out of FOOLS like all bubble's but it could have ended at any time. Had a Judge, or PREZ, or SENATOR came out strongly against, but HELL all were having a good time.

Even the IRS knowing that TIC(1031) was fraud, stayed back, as they knew politically it was suicide to end a good thing.

To this fucking day Fannie&Freddie still refuse to release to the public all the cheap and easy loans they made to politicians and FUCKING JUDGES.

This bubble was a beauty cuz EVERY FUCKING PERSON could play.

Now dunc talks about fad's and hoola-hoops, but those a fad's and MOST of us don't play, but a true BUBBLE everybody plays, like the witch-hunts you were a player whether you wanted to or not.

To me, a bubble we're all players, sure I didn't play in the bubble but the aftermath will effect me, if I hang out at night at a Walmart parking lot. So I'm a player.

A fad doesn't hurt anyone except those stuck with the merchanise, and most don't play.

But a real bubble always hurts all,

Lastly there were no bubbles in human history prior to the printing press, all bubble for the past 500 years were orchestrated by the press, and sustained by the press.

Anonymous said...

Also blame mortgage deduction, capital gains tax breaks on houses, and every politician, Rep and Dem, who conspired to get minorities into houses with crazy-ass loans.

*

MTG DED, is old and political.

Minority loans was Country-Wide MOZZILA(orwhatever) he had ran out of suckers and these PUGS lobbied to include all, and Sharpton loved that shit, it sold real good to make every mexican & obama into a home-owner, ...

But note the fucking silence, ... and everybody knew, hell these people were buying houses at 20X of their income, ...

In all bubbles the problem is getting new suckers and financing their entry, ... today with the FED printing $8T per quarter, its sure to start a new bubble, the money is out there, like they say, the USA has now entered a PERMANENT BUBBLE CYCLE.

I would love to see the MTG DED go away, but it will NOT, just like the IRS 1040 WILL NOT GO away, simply too many lobbyists make to much money with the status quo.

Things aren't that bad, hell stockton is today where we'll be next year, and Atlanta past the worst last year.

The wave is just starting to hit Bend, but its not hard to see what the wave does, just look at the damage done to places that are 2-3 years ahead of us in the cycle.

LavaBear said...

>>>Done and done.

Thanks man...that's better.

Anonymous said...

Homer,

Who is the babe with the big tits? Is that your old lady?

Is that real? Or Bend?

bruce said...

Google

10,400,000 for gary fish

387,000 for drew bledsoe.

296,000 for jody denton.

Yep, there right as always, the fish wins.

Nada for Eckman.

bruce said...

In Zimbabwe, bread costs Z$10 million

With inflation at 100,000 percent, few can afford even basic goods...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

“I still get way more foot traffic than I used to get,” McGeary said of renovations and additions around his Minnesota Avenue store over the years that have landed him in the middle of a more vibrant city center. “So I actually am pretty positive about the long-term future of this area.”

Why not? The nearby Oxford Hotel, expected to be completed later this year, will deposit more people onto the streets, as will the new Putnam Pointe apartment/condominium complex behind the hotel. A new Bend-based bank, Crown Point, is forming and is remodeling the old Washington Mutual building on the corner of Bond and Oregon. A Subway sandwiches shop and Sisters Coffee Co. are opening a shared site. And you’ve got to believe the Merenda, Deep and Volo sites will generate ample interest. Their locations are too good. Even in very trying 2008, new businesses like Ciao Mambo and Bend Burger Co. quickly replaced Hans and Bluefish Bistro, for example.


Good Job Costa. Wait-ta Sell Out. You're supposed to TELL US those locations are TOO GOOD? Ya dumbass, of course they are good, but the rents BROKE the businesses there.

tim said...

You know how much I love to hate the local TV news and their barely literate staff.

Well, I have new respect for them, because they make a hell of a lot more sense than The Source.

Try to read this HUGE RED PULL QUOTE out loud. (Page 4 Jan 8 09.)

It's important for me to push the envelope, but your really cant afford do push too far or you'll fall out.

your
cant
do

Hello! Fire your damned drunk monkey copy editor. This is a friggin' pull quote!

One error per seven words in this pull quote, with a stunning three mistakes in a string of five words!

Absolutely amazing. January 8th and we already have a candidate for LAME-ASSNESS OF THE YEAR award.

I've seen better middle school papers.

Anonymous said...

"Fire your damned drunk monkey copy editor"


You assume they can afford to hire one?

Anonymous said...

I've seen better middle school papers.


*

You get what you pay for.

Anonymous said...

>>You assume they can afford to hire one?

Says "Polly Howard" in the mast head. I hope she tries harder next week.

Anonymous said...

Hey KUNTS forget about drinking the Bend kool-aide, today on Ned Flanders blog he has proved that the Bend Kool Aid Enema is the new SALON choice of Bend.

So everybody run over to Ned's site and read about how its the best time in 20 yrs to have a comic shop in downtown Bend.

The Salon next to Ned, has a deal, two-fer-one, bring a friend or HO, and you both can get kool-aid pumped up your ass.

I love Bend.

Anonymous said...

Homer I think I'm in love with your wife.

I love the pic.

Duncan McGeary said...

Sheesh.

I was beginning to think I'd gotten away clear.

It wasn't kool-aid, I swear. It was a....popsicle. Yeah, a purple popsicle.

Anonymous said...

"best time in 20 yrs to have a comic shop in downtown Bend."

Duncan is sitting pretty because he's been driving the other game and comic shops out of business.

It must be all that coverage in the BULL.

tim said...

>>Duncan is sitting pretty because he's been driving the other game and comic shops out of business.

"With heart, faith and steel. In the end there can be only one."

Duncan McGeary said...

Someone has had the effrontery, the temerity to open in the next block over!

I shall crush him like a bug. Eat my dust! Why, I'll.........


Um, what I mean to say is, welcome to the neighborhood.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Homer I think I'm in love with your wife.

I love the pic.


Do your boobs hang low
Do they wobble to and fro
Can you tie them in a knot
Can you tie them in a bow
Can you throw them over your shoulder
Like a regimental soldier
Do
Your
Boobs
Hang

L
O
W

Marge said...

>>>Do your boobs hang low
Do they wobble to and fro
Can you tie them in a knot
Can you tie them in a bow>>>
Awe Jees boys been sayin this say line to me for 40 years..but they are not like that photo/fixed thing.

Quimby said...

>> The beginnings of the housing bubble were underway before the Nasdaq bubble popped. It just didn't really come to a head until investors had given up on stocks and focused on Real Estate as their next savior.

I remember this phenomenon. After the Nasdaq crashed, that Rich Dad Poor Dad book was hot and it was all about Real Estate. It's so clear from hindsight, I wasn't plugged into this body of knowledge until 2007....THEN it was clear.

So boys, what's the next bubble? Green Energy and "infrustructure", blowing Obama's wad seems to be a decent bet.

Quimby said...

>> It's so clear from hindsight,

For Timmy:

It's so clear in hindsight,

bruce said...

Talking about hindsight.

You guys want a job, we're still looking for a few good men to drive BUS here at BAT.

Full benefits, living wage pay.

bewert@gmail.com if you want a BUS job @ BAT.

bruce said...

bewert@gmail.com if you want a BUS job @ BAT.

#

Fuck you BP, I want a BP at D&D.

I don't want no bus job, and want the old fashion bp-job at D&D.

Anonymous said...

i read a piece that said dubai re is on hold these days - nothing moving there either. so I'm sorry, those people are stuck and can't come to bend until they sell.

hank said...

bruce said... (which one? the real pussy, I guess)
Re: This town & its media were OVERWHELMINGLY POPULATED with RE-types, contractors, speculators, Editors In Chief, and other herd-following FUCKWADS who WENT ALONG WITH POPULAR OPINION.

###

Were?

And they just successfully took over the City Council.

+++

BP, hank here ... I just stopped by for your quarterly (hey, I got better things to do with the other 89 days of the quarter) Exec Session trashing.

The reason the City Council sucks in Bend is because they feel they can do whatever they want to do. No accountability. Nobody to hold their feet to the fire.

The Bend City Council can violate Oregon's Open Meeting laws in their Exec Sessions because nobody does anything about it (other than talk, BP, other than talk).

At least I (hank, also known as anonymous) never said I was going to file a complaint about it.

But Bruce, Bruce Pussy, Bruce E. can't say that, since he has bragged how his 10,000 page manifesto will soon be delivered to Judy Stiegler and the Ethics Commission, with a cc to the Gov.

BP will no doubt have many more excuses on why he still has not filed his complaint.

But they are only excuses .... and poor ones at that.

Anonymous said...

Baltazar O. Chavez has been in the PN section of the Bull a couple times lately.

Same guy?

bruce said...

Yep, OREO has ended war as we knew it.

###


Thousands of Oregonians to head for war

Last Update: 1/11 4:39 pm

SALEM, Ore. (AP) - Nearly half the Oregon Army National Guard will leave for war in 2009, the most since World War II, with more than 3,000 departing by summer.

They will include men who fight wildfires, search and rescue teams that rescue stranded climbers and help communities overcome floods and freezes.

This month, all 12 of the Oregon Guards medical evacuation Black Hawk helicopters and 100 soldiers, best known for their dramatic interventions, will leave.

Maj. Gen. Raymond F. Rees, the adjutant general who leads Oregons military and office of emergency management, said the state has reorganized emergency operations. Oregon also will turn to Washington, Idaho, Nevada and California for help.

"This is going to be a very demanding year for the Oregon Army National Guard," Rees said.

Those mobilized will include Lt. Col. Christian Rees, his youngest son.

About half of Oregon's 6,500 Army Guard troops will depart this year. State Senate President Peter Courtney wonders who will help Oregon in tough times.

"I feel my state and my people become more vulnerable," Courtney said. "Just last week, we needed you to go to Gresham when Mother Nature came our way. You take care of us."

On Monday the Capitol will be packed with judges, senators and representatives for the opening of the Legislature.

But this week, parents, wives, husbands and wide-eyed children filed into the hall with digital cameras and wistful smiles. The Rees family passed the newest member of the family, Lt. Col. Christian Rees 15-month-old, William Montgomery Rees, up and down the front row.

The conventional wisdom in military circles is that today's soldiers are very likely the parents of those serving tomorrow, said Shelley MacDermid, director of the Military Family Institute at Purdue University.

Four of Maj. Gen. Rees' uncles served in World War II. The son of eastern Oregon wheat ranchers, Maj. Gen. Rees said he knew by first grade that he also wanted to serve in the military. When he graduated in the class of 1962 at Helix High School outside Pendleton ("the senior class numbered seven and I wasn't even the valedictorian") he received an appointment to West Point and began a 40-year military career.

He led cavalry troops in Vietnam and served in the National Guard Bureau in Washington, D.C., as acting chief in 1994 but returned to Oregon to earn a law degree at the University of Oregon and to be close to his children.

His son Christian graduated from Bend High School and completed the ROTC program at Cornell University. The younger Rees also went to the University of Oregon, and earned a masters in architecture and works full time for the Guard as deputy director of installations, managing all of the Guards infrastructure around the state.

"The Guard is a family," Mary Len Rees said.

Anonymous said...

Duncan is sitting pretty because he's been driving the other game and comic shops out of business.

*

It's actually quite brilliant soon Dunc will have all downtown to himself, as all else but his shop will be boarded up plywood.

He deny's the 'Bend Bubble' was orchestrated, and he was the conductor and soon his outcome will be complete.

hbm said...

So boys, what's the next bubble? Green Energy and "infrustructure", blowing Obama's wad seems to be a decent bet.

"Americans Demand New Bubble to Invest In" -- Onion headline

At least when you build highways and bridges and rail lines you end up with something of real value, not just pieces of paper.

Anonymous said...

"Fire your damned drunk monkey copy editor"

*

Please don't fire HBM.

Where would he go?

hbm said...

I love the pic.

Me too. When I'm high-speed-scrolling through Homer's interminable post it lets me know when I'm at the end.

hbm said...

In many ways HBM is more adolescent than US, over at the source he called for jailing and imprisonment of bloggers who slander and call people child-molesters

I never said anything even remotely close to that. This illustrates my point that many blogs are not trustworthy sources of information. Any anonymous asshole can go on-line and post any bullshit he pleases without any consequences.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

This illustrates my point that many blogs are not trustworthy sources of information. Any anonymous asshole can go on-line and post any bullshit he pleases without any consequences.

First, are you saying that The BULL IS a totally trustworthy source of information? I think that question answers itself.

Second, your acting like these comments are WORTHLESS, unless they are PURE FACT. What about the COMMENTS & Letters to the Editor of TSW & The Bull?

Third, there are PLENTY of Anon Assholes who went online and puffed this bubble to the sky with innuendo, half-truths, and opinion. Where were you then?

Dude, you know as well as I, this blog survives ONLY BECAUSE OF IT'S ANON NATURE. Half the people on here would be shot, lynched, fired, ostracized, and generally PUNCHED IN THE GROIN if anyone knew who they were.

And I started it sans MODERATION, so people could SAY WHAT THE FUCK THEY WANT. FUCK MODERATION.

If you're going to use the ravings of a whacko to denounce free speech, then go ahead. See, you can say VILE FUCKING SHIT like that here, cuz I don't DISCRIMINATE AGAINST ASSHOLES who "go on-line and post any bullshit he pleases".

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

hbm, you seem to want eople to be easily LULLED into a false sense of security viz some sort of TRUSTWORTHY SOURCE OF INFORMATION.

Like the LEGITIMACY of the printed word somehow allows people to completely dismiss critical thinking, or something.

Dude, we ALL KNOW Buster raves on attributing all sorts of WHACKED ASS SHIT to all of us. According to Buster, I was on the grassy knoll.

You DO have to use some measure of rational discrimination here... but that is true with the Bull & TSW. You ranted on about Smith ad nauseum, and it was PURE OPINION driven by a almost out-of-control LIB agenda. And that's OK. Cuz I KNOW have to approach EVERYTHING with some measure of critical thinking. I have to figure out what's true & what's bullshit, wheat from chaff. Same deal here.

Don't hold this blog to some sort of FALSE STANDARD that even you don't live up to. Does it have an agenda? Fuck man, check the title. BUT it is also 100% UNMODERATED.... anyone, including you can say whatever the fuck they want, pro or con. Can TSW or The Bull say THAT?

No.

Quimby said...

>> See, you can say VILE FUCKING SHIT like that here, cuz I don't DISCRIMINATE AGAINST ASSHOLES who "go on-line and post any bullshit he pleases".

Everyone who posts here is probably at least a 1/2 way decent fellow (or gal, sorry Marge). Most of what gets posted here is the outlet of one part of their psyche which can't be aired or discussed without serious repercussions in our society. A contrarian part....an alter ego.

Thanks to Homer.

HBM, if you don't like what you see here, don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out. Anyone who reads here has to take what they read with a healthy grain of salt. I really don't need an editor to protect me.

bruce said...

Oh, people will say, "Mean old scammer, they took advantage of my 82-year-old grandmother and duped her into sending her life's savings in a Nigerian Scam."

*

Dear Granny HB Miller,

I'm a son of a king here in Nigeria. I'm due to inherit $15M, but my trust account will not write checks in my name. I need a friend in ameriKKKa who can help me.

I can send you a check to ameriKKKa for $1M on my father's bank the most esteemed Bank of Nigeria, it would be cashiers check, in US funds of course directly in your name Granny HB Miller, Note it is I that is entrusting you with $1M of my money.

Upon receipt of the check, I only ask you to wire $900k to an Orphanage I'm running in Bend, Oregon. It might seem selfish of me to only offer $100k for your assistance, but please think of the Orphans in Bend who have lost their parents from Bend suicides.

Thanks for your consideration granny, and when I get the $900k acknowledged from the Orphanage, I'll send you pictures of the Orphans you have rescued.

Lastly, if this transaction works out, I may be able to give you 20% on future transactions.

Sincerely,

Obama Mambo Jambo, his most trusted

Anonymous said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djgH9wA-JSU

So long, US dollar.

bruce said...

I think we should have a discussion on who is going to fill that huge Merenda space.

I'm voting for a Bog Lots.

bruce said...

Big Lots.

Coffee, please...

bruce said...

100% UNMODERATED.... anyone, including you can say whatever the fuck they want, pro or con. Can TSW or The Bull say THAT?

*

Can't we all just get along, what is it exactly that buster did now?

I control him, cuz I control the Bruce-Pussy, and buster loves the BP.

Just tell us what we did and he'll be punished.

WRT to TSW, its even better than moderation, if you write anything that doesn't support the HBM world view of Bend reality he deletes you.

What is most interesting is that he is over in this world demanding that we operate at his standards.

That said, HBM is always full of shit. He has said horrible and vile things about Republicans for years, and nobody has called for his elimination.

In fact most people in Bend simply will not even touch a 'SORE' because it contains offensive and inflammatory materials about republicans, but blesses democrats for being perfect and gods chosen people.

Thus HBM is just having fun, the truth is he is censored over at the 'SORE' self censorship, and here he is not.

Here he can tell his readers they're fuck-tards, there he cannot.

What I'm saying is the VILE bullshit that comes from HBM is not directed to BB2 rock-pissers, but is in fact directed to SORE readers et-al, HBM hates all that is BEND, and this is the only forum he can be his true and real self.

Anonymous said...

In many ways HBM is more adolescent than US, over at the source he called for jailing and imprisonment of bloggers who slander and call people child-molesters

I never said anything even remotely close to that. This illustrates my point that many blogs are not trustworthy sources of information. Any anonymous asshole can go on-line and post any bullshit he pleases without any consequences.


*

Do I have to go back and POST what you wrote HBM are you going to NOW deny what you wrote??

It's in the SORE, about a month ago.

HOLY FUCK HBM, not a fucking thing you say is going to be forgotten, don't even try to fucking deny.

Over on the SORE-EYE blog last month you said "That bloggers should be sued and imprisoned, for saying things like 'child molester'", ...

Then a few days later your over on this site calling Rush Limbaugh a 'child molester', its YOU HBM that are fucked, at least we don't try to create diametrically opposite selves.

As you well know, we make fun of everyone including ourselves.

But YOU, dunc, Bruce, ... they all are liberals, who have a license to denigrate the 'right-wing' but protect the 'left'. That hypocrisy is what drives us fucking crazy.

So will somebody please post HBM's rant on the sore-eye he did last month about calling for 'lawsuits and prison' for bloggers.

Quimby said...

One of the keys to success in life (and I mean respectable success, not bubble shit) is the ability to properly read people. Everyone's working an angle, even the preacher.

When reading, watching, or talking with someone, it helps to know what their worldview is and what angle they're working. If you accept shit hook-line-sinker, you'll be suckered all your life.

Propoganda. This is why Quimby doesn't like TV or movies. The shit comes at you SO fast, you don't know what the author's intent or worldview is....you can't make logical decisions with the information that has just been dumped into your brain.


CASE IN POINT:

Over Christmas, I was forced to watch a movie about Saudi Arabia with some FBI people shooting up a Saudi village (The Kingdom??). The images and screenplay were powerful and I felt myself being tugged in the direction the producers/directors wanted to take me. It was irrational to follow their lead because only one view had been presented. At the conclusion of the propaganda piece....errr, "movie", Quimby's Father-in-law proclaims "We shouldn't be over there". WTF? You just watched a shoot em up movie about the middle east with some tear jerker scenes and you've made a political decision based on a fucking movie. No time or opportunity taken to critically think or discuss the movie, just make a judgment and move on.

Folks, this is how 90% of America operates, it is FUCKING SAD and it will be the death of us.

bruce said...

But HBM LOVES HOMER ... 21sep08

The Eye has mixed feelings about the value of blogs like BendBubble2. They sometimes publish important information that the mainstream media can’t (or won’t) touch. For instance, BendBubble2 was predicting the bursting of the Bend real estate bubble long before The Bulletin woke up to the fact that it wouldn't go on forever.

But blogs give any anonymous loony with Internet access the chance to spew toxic rumors that are hurtful to the people they target and their families – and the victims have no way of fighting back under present libel law.

Meanwhile, after threatening a week ago to drop out of the blogging game, “I Hate to Burst Your Bubble” is back this Sunday at BendBubble2, and in his usual form:

“Just so you know, Portlandians, this f##king town is Bank-Mob Run. These f##kers killed themselves for reasons probably VERY SIMILAR to why that Buena Vista contractor was arrested: This ain't CIVIL anymore. Ain't a misdemeanor to lose money around here anymore, it's CRIMINAL. Your ass will SERVE TIME. Either that, or they will find you & shoot you. Or throw you over Benham Falls.”

bruce said...

HEY KUNTS here's the article HBM wrote that he deny's he wrote, NOW note he says that people who accuse people of 'baby fucking' should be hung by their legal nuts until dead, ... yet the same HBM on many occasion here in this forum has called Rush Limbaugh & Friends 'baby fuckers'.

I really don't care what you say HBM, just fucking don't deny what your on record for having said, ... Now who is the REAL fucking HBM?? I don't know, but if you read the below carefully its FUCKING CLEAR that HBM is no liberal he's a FUCKING COSTA with a Janet Reno atrophied KUNT.

...

Judge Declares Open Season for Libel on Web E-mail
User Rating: / 1
PoorBest
Written by H. Bruce Miller
Wednesday, 17 December 2008

An Oregon judge has handed down a ruling that will make it easier for anonymous posters to libel people on-line – and make it just about impossible for people who are libeled to do anything about it.

As reported in The Oregonian, Clackamas County Circuit Judge Pro Tem James Redman ruled in October that Oregon’s reporters’ “shield law” protects those who operate Internet forums – such as this one – from having to disclose the identities of those who post on them. The judge also ruled that under federal law the proprietors of the forums can’t be held liable for what’s posted on them.

Redman’s ruling came in the case of Portland businessman Terry Beard, who sued the Portland Mercury, Willamette Week and Bikeportland over anonymous comments posted on their websites.

The posts about Beard “were mostly trash talk, comments that were probably more personally hurtful than materially damaging,” writes Oregonian reporter Steve Mayes. However, “Under the right circumstances in Oregon, even anonymous comments that destroy a career or drive a person to suicide potentially could be protected” thanks to Redman’s ruling.

The Eye’s considered opinion – and let us make it very clear that our opinions are our own, not necessarily those of the Source or its management – is that this ruling sucks big-time.

Web forums offer a venue for the most sick, twisted, bitter, vindictive and just plain crazy individuals in society to vent their hatred for other individuals – or the world in general – from behind a screen of anonymity. The ruling essentially means that whatever vileness somebody accuses you of on the Web – embezzlement, child abuse, mass murder – you have no recourse against him or against the business that allowed him to spew his lies.

The Eye can’t see what compelling public purpose is served by that. If Redman correctly interpreted the state and federal laws, then those laws need to be changed – ASAP.

Anonymous said...

Yes, Quim, this is why I don't watch TV, all bullshit all the time,

But its not just the USA, BBC has TV 24/7, and China has the same, ...

The only solution is to KILL YOUR TV.

bruce said...

Somebody please tell me that the following RANT is not from the likes of Adolf Hitler, or Mussolini, or Janet Reno

....

The Eye’s (HBM) considered opinion – and let us make it very clear that our opinions are our own, not necessarily those of the Source or its management – is that this ruling sucks big-time.

Web forums offer a venue for the most sick, twisted, bitter, vindictive and just plain crazy individuals in society to vent their hatred for other individuals – or the world in general – from behind a screen of anonymity. The ruling essentially means that whatever vileness somebody accuses you of on the Web – embezzlement, child abuse, mass murder – you have no recourse against him or against the business that allowed him to spew his lies.

bruce said...

This is not just isolation with HBM, he has declared war in Bend on three things.

1.) Free speech on the net.

2.) Studded Tires ( MDU controls the US supply of road salt ).

3.) Republicans.

These three themes have gone on for years. The question of most interest is #1, why does he even bother to deny his position #1 on this board, its like over here he's an INDY, but at the SORE he's a NAZI-LIBERAL.

WHO THE FUCK IS THE REAL HBM?

bruce said...

The ruling essentially means that whatever vileness somebody accuses you of on the Web – embezzlement ( 1031, bend bubble,... ), child abuse, mass murder ( bank mob hits ... )
– you have no recourse against him or against the business that allowed him to spew his lies.

***

What I find interesting in HBM's accusal, is that it is him, that has called people 'child abusers', we say a lot of mean spirited shit about fraud, and suicide in Bend, but NEVER have we accused a BEND BOSS HOGG of child-fucking ... NEVER.

It's almost like HBM is making shit up to create a hysteria to demonize the free & open web.

This is all so strange, because like I have said, in BEND where media is controlled by TWO NAZI groups SORE&BULL, the COSTA-BULL is the bad-cop, and the HBM-SORE is the good-cop, but its fucking CLEAR here when it comes to 'free press' that FUCKING HBM is to the RIGHT of COSTA.

NEVER has COSTA written vile shit against freedom of expression, never, but HBM rants continuously about how he hates 'free speech', and hates judges to protect the first-amendment.

HBM IS NOT AN AMERICAN.

Anonymous said...

If you don't allow free anonymous speech, most people will not say what they think.

There is a grand history of anonymous speech going back centuries. It serves a purpose. Very difficult to have a revolution without it.

Anonymous said...

HBM and Costa both have good reason to hate the blogs.

The blogs regularly show these newspaper men to be suckers and fools.

If the papers did a decent job we wouldn't feel like we were getting more from the blog than from the paper.

bruce said...

f you don't allow free anonymous speech, most people will not say what they think.

There is a grand history of anonymous speech going back centuries. It serves a purpose. Very difficult to have a revolution without it.

*

So, why does HBM despise people who say what they think? Why does he call for their imprisonment and criminalization of free speech??

bruce said...

If the papers did a decent job we wouldn't feel like we were getting more from the blog than from the paper.

*

I'm glad someone mentioned that essential point.

I waste my fucking time blogging, cuz I learn more about what's going on in this town from the fellow rock pissers, than I would ever learn from the BEND PRESS.

I started doing this blog shit to toss ideas with like minded people, and I'm sure you all know that me&BEM all along have likened fixing BEND to AA and 12-steps, and step-1 is admitting you have a fucking problem.

Unlike HBMorCOSTA I want to fix BEND, I want BEND to be a better place.

BUT the BOSS HOGGS running this town are turning it into a fucking CALI prison with walmarts.

Yes, there is NO fucking doubt that HBM/COSTA are working side-by-side, remember HBM still gets his pension from the BULL, he needs the BULL to survive.

We just want a press to tell us what the fuck is BEND.

Who, what, where, when, and WHY, ...

But everyone in this town tells us "NEVER ASK WHY, NEVER DISCUSS WHY, and NEVER EVER ASK WHO", ...

Thus the print-media of BEND sucks dick.

We will continue to BLOG, until the BEND MEDIA hires writers who can write.

HBM talks of an agenda of the bloggers, hell I have no fucking agenda other than tired of seeing bend destroyed by greed.

Its HBM/COSTA that have an agenda, which is to rob the taxpayer blind.

bruce said...

The blogs regularly show these newspaper men to be suckers and fools.

*

We really don't know much about Costa, as he keeps his cards close to his chest.

But we do know that HBM is stupid, bend stupid.

Protecting the status quo is all they can do, and in my years of politics, its usually just about being invited to the party's.

Seldes ( a real journalist ) once said "A real newspaper should have no friends".

That is the essential problem with BEND-MEDIA is that as we know COSTA golfs with the boss-hoggs, and HBM well who the fuck knows what he does with them, but they're definitely his 'friends'.

It's a New Year, and as you can see pre xmas, HBM had a declared a full on war since post labor day on BB2.

I'm sure the reason he's here is to be an agent provacateur, so somebody here really does slander a boss-hogg.

But let's all remember, that all our 'blogger-fodder' (dunc) comes from the bull&sore, all we know is what COSTA/HBM feed us, and a little that a few people Piss on this rock known as BB2.

Anonymous said...

Your always safe, when you can hire the best lawyers money can buy with other peoples money.

The Wall Street Journal


Jan. 12, 2009

A judge has allowed Bernard Madoff to remain free on bail at his Manhattan penthouse, with additional restrictions on his and his wife's assets.

Anonymous said...

Seldes ( a real journalist ) once said "A real newspaper should have no friends".

This is the reason why the Bulletin is so eternally suspect. Why should we trust them? What big player have they brought down through investigative journalism?

They appear to be merely shills for the builders and Realtors.

Really, there's nothing there but boosterism and local school sports. There's not even an impressive veneer of journalism.

"Wut's going up?"

Pathetic.

Anonymous said...

So why is OREO trying to get the SHRUB to release the other 1/2 of the $700B before he starts?? Seems that this would be a bad move for PUG's.

Why is the Shrub going along??

****

In Quick Shift, Bush to Seek Second Half of Bailout Funds
New York Times - 1 hour ago
President Bush gave his final press conference in the White House briefing room on Monday. By BRIAN KNOWLTON and DAVID STOUT WASHINGTON - The White House said on Monday that President Bush, acting on the request of President-elect Barack Obama, ...

Anonymous said...

This is the reason why the Bulletin is so eternally suspect. Why should we trust them? What big player have they brought down through investigative journalism?

*

Let's not forget when the BULL is mentioned, that most 'events' that brought in the tourists to BUY condo's, were all ran by the SORE whose owner Aaron Swizter of Who-Is-Who in BEND EVENT LLC non-profit, ...

What is going on here is that the BULL&SORE are trying to come out of this collapse unscathed, and its the bloggers who will not tolerate the SORE&BULL's redefinition of Bend history.

On the subject of the SORE, regarding 'investigative journalism', they have never had a 1031 story, or a Suterra story, ... nothing, just storys about Smith losing a frozen pie in Pendleton.

Anonymous said...

"Everyone's working an angle, even the preacher."

Gee, Quimby, you are now my guru.

Let the wisdom continue to flow from thy lips.

Quimby said...

>> Let the wisdom continue to flow from thy lips.

Have you figured out my "angle"?

Anonymous said...

Have you figured out my "angle"?

*

It's sort of an interesting thread, HBM-etal are forever bashing 'conspiracy theorists', a conspiracy requires secrecy everything we discuss is based on public record.

So HBM continually presents over at the SORE-EYE that BB2 is composed of a vast conspiracy of 'like-minded' bloggers with an angle or agenda.

That to me is a real conspiracy theory, because we are secret, by definition.

Dunc's Angle? He likes to write and is bored out of his mind.

I have been pissed for over 20+ years watching this town turn into a south-cali traffic shit-hole.

Homer? Who the fuck knows?

Marge? Certainly just wants like minded folks to chat with.

Lava? Quim? who the fuck knows.

But what we do know is the agenda of the BULL&SORE, which is to PIMP the bubble all the way up, and then deny there were a PIMP all the way down.

The preachers angle? These days it seems to be sex or cash, you never here about any thing else.

At the end of the day with we had a real newspaper with real news, these blogs would be redundant.

Anonymous said...

- The White House said on Monday that President Bush, acting on the request of President-elect Barack Obama, ...

*

What is the fucking hurry, bush boyz don't want to release the money, they want to blame the OREO for spending.

It's only one fucking week and then the OREO can give PAULSON#2 $10T/month if he so wishes.

What is the fucking hurry??

The last $350B was just used to BUY banks by bank-holding company's on the cheap. So what is the fucking hurry to more of the same??

Certainly PAULSON wants the money now, and not in a week.

All I can think is they want to blame BUSH, but why would BUSH go along with an OREO win??

Quimby said...

>> What is the fucking hurry??

Maybe somebody BIG, too big to fail, is in deep trouble. Rescue!!!

tim said...

People are not fond of the press. This is not new with the Internet.

People don't think that the interest of the press is aligned with the interest of the people.

Usually, the public distaste for the press baffles pressmen, who assume that they should be heroes or something.

hbm said...

So HBM continually presents over at the SORE-EYE that BB2 is composed of a vast conspiracy of 'like-minded' bloggers with an angle or agenda.

And when, exactly, did I say that?

Dates? Links?

Waiting ... waiting ...

hbm said...

I have been pissed for over 20+ years watching this town turn into a south-cali traffic shit-hole.

Well, that makes two of us.

When my wife and I first arrived here in 1984 we took a look at the Highway 97 strip and said "WTF??? We drove 600 miles and we're back in San Jose!"

But then we got a look at the rest of the town and decided it was pretty nice.

Now the strip-development crap has overrun pretty much the whole place.

hbm said...

Usually, the public distaste for the press baffles pressmen, who assume that they should be heroes or something.

It is frustrating because we think we're trying to serve the public.

The problem, of course, is that journalists -- if they're worthy of the name -- try to tell people what they need to know, not what they want to hear. This is not a formula for popularity.

tim said...

>>try to tell people what they need to know, not what they want to hear.

To me the problem is how bad the attempt is.

hbm said...

One of the problems with the Internet as a source of news is that it's easy for people to screen out all the news and information they don't want by sticking to sites that pander to their prejudices, be they of the left and right.

If you subscribe to a newspaper or watch or listen to a newscast regularly you'll inevitably be exposed to information and viewpoints that conflict with your preconceptions. And that's a good thing. If we become over-dependent on blogs and websites for our news we can end up isolating ourselves in little echo chambers in which we hear only our own voices.

hbm said...

To me the problem is how bad the attempt is.

Yes, it's generally not well done. And many media seem to have given up the effort entirely, viz. The Bullshittin's happy-talk formula.

tim said...

People can be just as selective with magazines, newspapers, radio, and TV. It's not a blog problem exclusively. In fact, you'll often get MORE diversity on a blog, as people fight back.

I quit journalism because the pay sucks.

Many of the people in the business sleep walk through it. Platitudes. Easy comparisons. Lousy craft. Often the reporters are innumerate and otherwise poorly educated. No sense of scale, probability, or statistics. Little knowledge of history.

The same damned metaphors over and over.

And, yeah, the Source has lousy copy editing, but I find errors in the WSJ and NYT all the time.

You can blame a lot of it on the business, but that excuse doesn't make the product any more attractive.

tim said...

It's sad seeing the NYT go to hell (WSJ still pretty good). I guess what I want from the NYT is a something as good as The Economist EVERY SINGLE DAY. If you can't do that, just give me Sunday.

Anonymous said...

How do we know that the 'hbm' here is the real HB Miller of the SORE?

We know the real HBM, cuz only him can post at the SORE-EYE.

But here he deny's what he writes over at the sore-eye,

So is this the real hbm, but a hypocrite? Or is this a fake hbm in our midst?

Anonymous said...

Judge Declares Open Season for Libel on Web E-mail
User Rating: / 1
PoorBest
Written by H. Bruce Miller
Wednesday, 17 December 2008

An Oregon judge has handed down a ruling that will make it easier for anonymous posters to libel people on-line – and make it just about impossible for people who are libeled to do anything about it.

As reported in The Oregonian, Clackamas County Circuit Judge Pro Tem James Redman ruled in October that Oregon’s reporters’ “shield law” protects those who operate Internet forums – such as this one – from having to disclose the identities of those who post on them. The judge also ruled that under federal law the proprietors of the forums can’t be held liable for what’s posted on them.

Redman’s ruling came in the case of Portland businessman Terry Beard, who sued the Portland Mercury, Willamette Week and Bikeportland over anonymous comments posted on their websites.

The posts about Beard “were mostly trash talk, comments that were probably more personally hurtful than materially damaging,” writes Oregonian reporter Steve Mayes. However, “Under the right circumstances in Oregon, even anonymous comments that destroy a career or drive a person to suicide potentially could be protected” thanks to Redman’s ruling.

The Eye’s considered opinion – and let us make it very clear that our opinions are our own, not necessarily those of the Source or its management – is that this ruling sucks big-time.

Web forums offer a venue for the most sick, twisted, bitter, vindictive and just plain crazy individuals in society to vent their hatred for other individuals – or the world in general – from behind a screen of anonymity. The ruling essentially means that whatever vileness somebody accuses you of on the Web – embezzlement, child abuse, mass murder – you have no recourse against him or against the business that allowed him to spew his lies.

The Eye can’t see what compelling public purpose is served by that. If Redman correctly interpreted the state and federal laws, then those laws need to be changed – ASAP.

Anonymous said...

HBM LOVES HOMER THINKS HOMER SHOULD SPEND TIME IN BIG HOUSE ... 21sep08

The Eye has mixed feelings about the value of blogs like BendBubble2. They sometimes publish important information that the mainstream media can’t (or won’t) touch. For instance, BendBubble2 was predicting the bursting of the Bend real estate bubble long before The Bulletin woke up to the fact that it wouldn't go on forever.

But blogs give any anonymous loony with Internet access the chance to spew toxic rumors that are hurtful to the people they target and their families – and the victims have no way of fighting back under present libel law.

Meanwhile, after threatening a week ago to drop out of the blogging game, “I Hate to Burst Your Bubble” is back this Sunday at BendBubble2, and in his usual form:

“Just so you know, Portlandians, this f##king town is Bank-Mob Run. These f##kers killed themselves for reasons probably VERY SIMILAR to why that Buena Vista contractor was arrested: This ain't CIVIL anymore. Ain't a misdemeanor to lose money around here anymore, it's CRIMINAL. Your ass will SERVE TIME. Either that, or they will find you & shoot you. Or throw you over Benham Falls.”

Anonymous said...

And when, exactly, did I say that?

Dates? Links?

*

Fess up to the vile & bile you have already written, then we can move on to your blogger conspiracy theory's.

hbm said...

David Carr of the NY Times thinks the key to the survival of newspapers depends on somebody inventing an iTunes for news (iNews?):

Remember that when iTunes began, the music industry was being decimated by file sharing. By coming up with an easy user interface and obtaining the cooperation of a broad swath of music companies, Mr. Jobs helped pull the business off the brink. He has been accused of running roughshod over the music labels, which are a fraction of their former size. But they are still in business.

Those of us who are in the newspaper business could not be blamed for hoping that someone like him comes along and ruins our business as well by pulling the same trick: convincing the millions of interested readers who get their news every day free on newspapers sites that it’s time to pay up.

For a long time, newspapers assumed that as their print advertising declined, it would be intersected by a surging line of online advertising revenue. But that revenue is no longer growing at many newspaper sites, so if the lines cross, it will be because the print revenue is saying hello on its way to the basement.

As a report by Craig Moffett of Bernstein Research stated last year, “The notion that the enormous cost of real news-gathering might be supported by the ad load of display advertising down the side of the page, or by the revenue share from having a Google search box in the corner of the page, or even by a 15-second teaser from Geico prior to a news clip, is idiotic on its face.”


Intriguing idea ... and there might be a fortune in it for whoever can bring it off.

tim said...

>>Intriguing idea ... and there might be a fortune in it for whoever can bring it off.

Yeah, I like that idea.

Anonymous said...

hbm said...
So HBM continually presents over at the SORE-EYE that BB2 is composed of a vast conspiracy of 'like-minded' bloggers with an angle or agenda.

And when, exactly, did I say that?

Dates? Links?

Waiting ... waiting ...

January 12, 2009 12:44 PM

++++++++++

HBM, you love to be pussy-whipped by the crowd, doncha?

Man, bruce just nailed you to the wall earlier this morning, and you are back for more. You da loser!!!

See below for your last pussy-whippin'


" bruce said...
HEY KUNTS here's the article HBM wrote that he deny's he wrote, NOW note he says that people who accuse people...

...

Judge Declares Open Season for Libel on Web E-mail
User Rating: / 1
PoorBest
Written by H. Bruce Miller
Wednesday, 17 December 2008

+++

Anonymous said...

Ouch!!!

hbm, you are bleeding from the rectum!!!

ROTFLMAO!!!

Anonymous said...

People I know who are doing well right now have been saving their pennies. And I mean pennies. They don't make a King's Ransom. But they do save, quite a bit more than most people. They aren't really "cheap", they just have "lean" tastes.

That's me. Doing fine, house 70% paid off and I bought in 2004 too. Then again, I never fell for the keeping up with the jones crap and I have no plan to sell. If you get a house for less than I paid, good for you at timing the market. I've stopped counting, other than counting down to zero mortgage payments.

Anonymous said...

Well there is no doubt that the OREO will take USA socialist, even more than shrub.

So like everything else media will be come public.

China has Zinhua, Russia Pravda, and UK BBC, and USA NPR, .. That will be journalism.

People will always pay for info, rich people will pay for the WSJ, or Bloomberg, ...

The vast majority will be fed shit by their government.

Transportation, food, medical, ... everything will be socialized in the coming years.

The Shrub has made sure that 'free market' is dead for generations.

Anonymous said...

The Eye (HBM@SORE) can’t see what compelling public purpose is served by that. If Redman correctly interpreted the state and federal laws, then those laws need to be changed – ASAP.

*

HBM is right, we must destroy the US constitution, we must nullify the first amendment. Then it will be easy for HBM to kill the 2nd amendment, ... Peace & Justus in our time, who would have guessed??

Anonymous said...

*

Enough on HBM, poor bastard. Why oh why can't we all just get along?

I tried to find good news today, but this is all I found . . .




No Recovery for Real Estate as Speculators Dominate Sales


Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- As the U.S. housing recession enters its fourth year, there’s no sign of a recovery because speculators account for most of the rise in sales.

While the purchases are trimming the inventory of unsold properties, most of those bought by speculators will likely return to the market when prices rise again, hampering any recovery, said Nobel laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz and Yale University Professor Robert Shiller in interviews.

“We’re creating a shadow inventory of homes that will be right back on the market as soon as the economy and the housing market begin to improve,” said Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor of economics. “We could see a double-dip in the housing recession if that happens.”

Banks owned a record $11.5 billion of repossessed homes in the U.S. at the end of the third quarter, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Foreclosures accounted for almost half of all U.S. purchases in November and homes in default helped increase sales 83 percent in California.

There were an average 3,100 foreclosures per day in the U.S. in November, according to RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California real estate data company. That’s triple the 1,000 per day average in 1933, the worst year of the Great Depression, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The repossessed properties offer opportunities for investors, who typically buy homes at auction and rent them out until prices increase and they can sell.

‘Flippers’ Rule

“You don’t have it in strong hands, you have flippers,” said Shiller, who helped create the S&P/Case Shiller real estate price indexes. “These speculators are preventing the market from crashing now, and when they get out it could fall again.”

U.S. real estate prices and sales may begin to stabilize in 2010, said Stiglitz. A worsening economy and growing speculation will delay the recovery further, he said.

“Assuming we don’t overshoot, we could be back at equilibrium in 12 to 18 months, but there are reasons to believe we might overshoot,” Stiglitz said.

In November there were 4.2 million homes on the market, falling from an all-time high of 4.6 million in July, the National Association of Realtors said in a Dec. 23 report. The U.S. median home price plunged 13 percent from a year ago, the fastest pace since the 1930s, the trade group said.

Anonymous said...

"“We’re creating a shadow inventory of homes that will be right back on the market as soon as the economy and the housing market begin to improve,” said Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor of economics."

In a place like Bend, the "shadow market" could be 2-3 times the size the number actually listed.

hbm said...

HBM is right, we must destroy the US constitution, we must nullify the first amendment. Then it will be easy for HBM to kill the 2nd amendment,

Okay, moron, here's my whole post:

An Oregon judge has handed down a ruling that will make it easier for anonymous posters to libel people on-line – and make it just about impossible for people who are libeled to do anything about it.

As reported in The Oregonian, Clackamas County Circuit Judge Pro Tem James Redman ruled in October that Oregon’s reporters’ “shield law” protects those who operate Internet forums – such as this one – from having to disclose the identities of those who post on them. The judge also ruled that under federal law the proprietors of the forums can’t be held liable for what’s posted on them.

Redman’s ruling came in the case of Portland businessman Terry Beard, who sued the Portland Mercury, Willamette Week and Bikeportland over anonymous comments posted on their websites.

The posts about Beard “were mostly trash talk, comments that were probably more personally hurtful than materially damaging,” writes Oregonian reporter Steve Mayes. However, “Under the right circumstances in Oregon, even anonymous comments that destroy a career or drive a person to suicide potentially could be protected” thanks to Redman’s ruling.

The Eye’s considered opinion – and let us make it very clear that our opinions are our own, not necessarily those of the Source or its management – is that this ruling sucks big-time.

Web forums offer a venue for the most sick, twisted, bitter, vindictive and just plain crazy individuals in society to vent their hatred for other individuals – or the world in general – from behind a screen of anonymity. The ruling essentially means that whatever vileness somebody accuses you of on the Web – embezzlement, child abuse, mass murder – you have no recourse against him or against the business that allowed him to spew his lies.

The Eye can’t see what compelling public purpose is served by that. If Redman correctly interpreted the state and federal laws, then those laws need to be changed – ASAP.


Could you please point out to me where I said anybody should be thrown in jail or shipped off to Gitmo or any of the other absurd bullshit you claimed? Or where I said the First Amendment (or Second) should be nullified? I'm only saying people should not be immune from the libel laws just because their libels appear on the Web.

Contrary to what you may have been taught when you were home-skuled, the First Amendment does NOT give everybody an unconditional right to say whatever he wants, whenever and wherever he wants.

This whole exchange proves (again) my point about ignorant and malicious assholes abusing the Web to anonymously publish any bullshit they want. And unfortunately people like that tend to drive away those who want to have rational, adult discussions. It's a kind of Gresham's Law at work.

Anonymous said...

'Flippers' continue to have our Bend RE valuations by the ball's, and FLIPPER's will not let go of their RE until they're all BankRupt. ...

Here's a good layout on defining the bubble, and what causes the bubble, like we know, but in engaging the debate it important to focus on the critical issues, and at this late point its not 'greater fool theory' or 'greed' damage is done, now the focus needs to be liquidity & herding. It was CACB that provided the liquidity to OUR BUBBLE, and it the BULL/SORE/COVA that created the 'herd' the FOUR essential elements of the RE PRICING BUBBLE.

***

An economic bubble (sometimes referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, or a speculative mania) is “trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably at variance with intrinsic values”.[1][2]

While some economists deny that bubbles occur,[3] the cause of bubbles remains a challenge to those who are convinced that asset prices often deviate strongly from intrinsic values. While many explanations have been suggested, it has been recently shown that bubbles appear even without uncertainty,[4] speculation,[5] or bounded rationality.[6] Most recently, it has been suggested that bubbles might ultimately be caused by processes of price coordination[7] or emerging social norms.[6] Because it is often difficult to observe intrinsic values in real-life markets, bubbles are often identified only in retrospect, when a sudden drop in prices appears. Such a drop is known as a crash or a bubble burst. Both the boom and the bust phases of the bubble are examples of a positive feedback mechanism, in contrast to the negative feedback mechanism that determines the equilibrium price under normal market circumstances. Prices in an economic bubble can fluctuate erratically, and become impossible to predict from supply and demand alone.


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2009 2:45 pm Post subject: If a post contains some illegal issues you may abuse on it - just click Abuse and fill the form Reply with quote
Greater fool theory

Popular among laymen but not fully confirmed by empirical research,[5][6] greater fool theory portrays bubbles as driven by the behavior of a perennially optimistic market participants (the fools) who buy overvalued assets in anticipation of selling it to other rapacious speculators (the greater fools) at a much higher price. According to this unsupported explanation, the bubbles continue as long as the fools can find greater fools to pay up for the overvalued asset. The bubbles will end only when the greater fool becomes the greatest fool who pays the top price for the overvalued asset and can no longer find another buyer to pay for it at a higher price.

[edit] Greed

A related explanation is that economic bubbles are favored by the greed and irrational exuberance of overly bullish investors. The argument is that investors tend to extrapolate past extraordinary returns on investment of certain assets into the future, causing them to overbid those risky assets in order to attempt to continue to capture those same rates of return. Overbidding on certain assets will at some point result in uneconomic rates of return for investors; only then the asset price deflation will begin. When investors feel that they are no longer well compensated for holding those risky assets, they will start to demand higher rates of return on their investments.

[edit] Herding

Another related explanation used in behavioral finance lies in herd behavior, the fact that investors tend to buy or sell in the direction of the market trend. This is sometimes helped by technical analysis that tries precisely to detect those trends and follow them, which creates a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Investment managers, such as stock mutual fund managers, are compensated and retained in part due to their performance relative to peers. Taking a conservative or contrarian position as a bubble builds results in performance unfavorable to peers. This may cause customers to go elsewhere and can affect the investment manager's own employment or compensation. The typical short-term focus of U.S. equity markets exacerbates the risk for investment managers that do not participate during the building phase of a bubble, particularly one that builds over a longer period of time. In attempting to maximize returns for clients and maintain their employment, they may rationally participate in a bubble they believe to be forming, as the risks of not doing so outweigh the benefits.[12]

[edit] Liquidity

Others argue that the cause of bubbles is excessive monetary liquidity in the financial system, inducing lax or inappropriate lending standards by the banks, which then causes asset markets to be vulnerable to volatile hyperinflation caused by short-term, leveraged speculation.[11] According to the explanation, excessive monetary liquidity (easy credit, large disposable incomes) potentially occurs while fractional reserve banks are implementing expansionary monetary policy (i.e. lowering of interest rates and flushing the financial system with money supply). When interest rates are going down, investors tend to avoid putting their capital into savings accounts. Instead, investors tend to leverage their capital by borrowing from banks and invest the leveraged capital in financial assets such as equities and real estate.

Simply put, economic bubbles often occur when too much money is chasing too few assets, causing both good assets and bad assets to appreciate excessively beyond their fundamentals to an unsustainable level. Once the bubble bursts the central bank will be forced to reverse its monetary accommodation policy and soak up the liquidity in the financial system or risk a collapse of its currency. The removal of monetary accommodation policy is commonly known as a contractionary monetary policy. When the central bank raises interest rates, investors tend to become risk averse and thus avoid leveraged capital because the costs of borrowing may become too expensive.

[edit]


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2009 2:50 pm Post subject: If a post contains some illegal issues you may abuse on it - just click Abuse and fill the form Reply with quote
An 'economic bubble' the over-valuation of an asset.

Well we all know that BEND has been since 2004, and continues to be in 2008/2009 the MOST OVER-VALUED RE in the USA.

SO BEND RE IS IN A PRICING BUBBLE AND WILL DEFLATE.

Bend is not a 'bubble' the asset value of BEND RE is in a bubble state.

What factors drove the prices of BEND RE to the highest in the USA? WHO? WHY? HOW?

These questions are the subject of this debate.

Anonymous said...

Final nail in coffin, ... Coming soon.

Cessna to lay off 2,000 workers
13 Jan 2009

WICHITA: Cessna Aircraft Co. told workers Monday that it will lay off an additional 2,000 employees across its facilities, saying the job cuts are necessary to ensure its long-term stability and success.

The announcement was made in an e-mail from Cessna's head of human resources, Jim Walters, to employees. The work force reductions will be implemented across the Wichita, Kansas-based company's facilities and affect all pay categories, it said. Cessna is a unit of Textron Inc.

``These actions are regrettable, but necessary to ensure our long-term stability and success,'' Walters told employees in the e-mail. ``As always, we remain committed to keep you informed of the processes and next steps as we work through this difficult time.''

Workers will receive 60-day notices within the next few weeks, with the cuts occurring in March, Cessna spokesman Robert Stangarone said. As part of the cuts, the company will offer a voluntary layoff program, with details to be released later.

``These are particularly difficult times and it is very painful to lose so many great team members, and unfortunately we must take these steps to protect the future of our company,'' Stangarone said in a telephone interview.

The layoffs were not entirely unexpected. The company told its employees last week that it was planning a second round of cuts, a month after it issued 60-day layoff notices to about 500 Wichita employees and 165 workers in Bend, Oregon.

Cessna is Wichita's biggest employer, with 12,000 employees. The company also has 1,300 people working at its Independence facility and has manufacturing facilities in Columbus, Georgia; Bend, Oregon; and Chihuahua, Mexico.

Stangarone could not say exactly how many jobs might be cut at each location.

``Right now we are just saying across Cessna. We are not being any more specific than that,'' he said.

The company has been talking to its customers about their orders and trying to assess what production will be throughout the year, he said.

Anonymous said...

HBM, the following is your post from the google-cache, of course you have now gone and deleted the post and fixed outrageous SHIT, but your original stands on google-cache for all time, you fucking asshole.

***

Judge Declares Open Season for Libel on Web E-mail
User Rating: / 1
PoorBest
Written by H. Bruce Miller
Wednesday, 17 December 2008

An Oregon judge has handed down a ruling that will make it easier for anonymous posters to libel people on-line – and make it just about impossible for people who are libeled to do anything about it.

As reported in The Oregonian, Clackamas County Circuit Judge Pro Tem James Redman ruled in October that Oregon’s reporters’ “shield law” protects those who operate Internet forums – such as this one – from having to disclose the identities of those who post on them. The judge also ruled that under federal law the proprietors of the forums can’t be held liable for what’s posted on them.

Redman’s ruling came in the case of Portland businessman Terry Beard, who sued the Portland Mercury, Willamette Week and Bikeportland over anonymous comments posted on their websites.

The posts about Beard “were mostly trash talk, comments that were probably more personally hurtful than materially damaging,” writes Oregonian reporter Steve Mayes. However, “Under the right circumstances in Oregon, even anonymous comments that destroy a career or drive a person to suicide potentially could be protected” thanks to Redman’s ruling.

The Eye’s considered opinion – and let us make it very clear that our opinions are our own, not necessarily those of the Source or its management – is that this ruling sucks big-time.

Web forums offer a venue for the most sick, twisted, bitter, vindictive and just plain crazy individuals in society to vent their hatred for other individuals – or the world in general – from behind a screen of anonymity. The ruling essentially means that whatever vileness somebody accuses you of on the Web – embezzlement, child abuse, mass murder – you have no recourse against him or against the business that allowed him to spew his lies.

The Eye can’t see what compelling public purpose is served by that. If Redman correctly interpreted the state and federal laws, then those

Anonymous said...


Web forums offer a venue for the most sick, twisted, bitter, vindictive and just plain crazy individuals in society to vent their hatred for other individuals – or the world in general – from behind a screen of anonymity. The ruling essentially means that whatever vileness somebody accuses you of on the Web – embezzlement, child abuse, mass murder – you have no recourse against him or against the business that allowed him to spew his lies.
- HBM 17dec2008



Surely your not talking about US BITCH??

Anonymous said...

See what HBM is trying to do is get people to visit the SORE-EYE site so he can log IP's, but we don't do that, us KUNTS only visit GOOGLE-CACHE.

Sorry HBM, you fucking asshole.


Lastly, I agree HBM, is boring I wish he would go away, as discussing him is like talking about genital-herpes after you have been cured, we already know everything we need to know about HBM, and his fucking views.

Quimby said...

Citi taking a beating

Maybe this is why the next $350,000,000,000.00 bailout/rescue package is being requested.

bruce said...

In a place like Bend, the "shadow market" could be 2-3 times the size the number actually listed.


*

In a place like BEND 'shadown' or dark-matter as we have always called it could be 10x-100x, god only knows, ...

All I do know is a ton of people have listed in the last 1-2 years, and NOT got one fucking offer, not even a lowball, so they just take the STD off the market and wait.

The real fucking issue with job-loss, is how fucking long can BEND's walking-dead ( I'm not talking aboug HBM ), how long can they feed these fucking STD's corpses?

This is why BEND-RE will be soft out til at least 2014 or later, at the very best we know resets end in 2012 the end of the worst, and then add Bends two year lag, and then add in dark-matter inventory, it could be 2018, which is what I have assumed all along.

Again, if you aren't going to stay here for the next ten years, get the fuck out now.

bruce said...

God Damn quim thanks for reminding me, I had that all written, and noticed the same thing today on the tombstone of the DOW BA & C just got fucking hammered today.

I really wish we could quit talking about NAZI-HBM, and focus on debating the Bend econ.

Yes, it appears that Citi & BA, and a bunch of others are in a world of fucking hurt, and need the money NOW.

Still I think that BUSH gets pardoned in return, there has to be a deal here for BUSH doing so many things for OREO.

YOU know the lib's want cheney's head on a fucking plate, the give-away to lib's today is that OREO is shutting down GUANTANAMO, yeh we have heard that a million times, ...

So many things to talk about other than HBM,

HEY HOMER, CACB is back at the LOW now also, very close to breaking the BIG FIVE.

hbm said...

HBM, the following is your post from the google-cache, of course you have now gone and deleted the post and fixed outrageous SHIT, but your original stands on google-cache for all time, you fucking asshole.

What you posted is EXACTLY the same as what I posted, you fucking psychotic moron.

Surely your not talking about US BITCH??

Yes, you are PRECISELY who I am talking about.

And why are you afraid to put your name on your posts, asshole?

Oh, I know -- you're afraid Mike Hollern and I will order a "mob hit" on you. Fucking psycho.

I'm through with this blog -- too many psychotic trolls eaten up by hate and spite with nothing to do but vent it here on any target that offers itself.

I'll read it, but I'm done commenting on it. Good bye.

hbm said...

And one last thing....

Fuck all you Repugs!!!!

bruce said...

FYI

Please join Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer and RGE Monitor Chairman Nouriel Roubini as they discuss the political and economic risks in the year ahead. As the world enters 2009 facing the first global recession, Bremmer and Roubini aim to identify a comprehensive view of the challenges ahead - bringing together their expertise on global politics and economics. There will be an opportunity to ask questions after the discussion.

Date and Time: 13 January 2009 10:00 (New York)
13 January 2009 15:00 (London)
Speaker(s): Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group
Nouriel Roubini, Chairman, RGE Monitor

Topics: The top political and economic risks for 2009

* Who are the winners and losers from the first truly global recession?

* What are the political and economic forecasts for the world, and what impact do they have on each other?

* How will the Obama administration fare in its first year?

* What are the likely crisis points for the developed and developing world?

Call-in: +1 866.847.7860 (US, Canada, Puerto Rico)
+1 703.639.1427 (International)
Passcode: 1323113

Replay: +1 888.266.2081 (US, Canada, Puerto Rico)
+1 703.925.2533 (International)
Passcode: 1323113

(the replay will be available two hours after call through 20 January)

If you have any questions or need further information, please contact RGE Monitor at +1 212.645.0010 or info@rgemonitor.com

Quimby said...

>> Fuck all you Repugs!!!!

Good to see ol' HBM back again. He really livens up the place. That's the spirit!

Anonymous said...

Haha.

HBM always leaving in a huff. So pompous. So superior.

bruce said...

Hey hb, I've been teaching all day. Fake bruce has been baiting you, not me. I'm a Pug hating progressive, too.

On another note, it sounds like Obama has different plans for the rest of the TARP money. Only time will tell. Paulson needs to be fucking reined in, before he bankrupts us trying to save the banks. Rogers had it right when he said that giving money to the weakest banks run by the stupidest people is just plain wrong.

tim said...

The stories say Obama wants the rest of the TARP to "help" people avoid foreclosure. This just stretches out the slump, in my opinion. Let the people lose the houses. I'd rather have the money go to new jobs.

bruce said...

Re: I'd rather have the money go to new jobs.

###

Hopefully, both. Obama wants another $800M to go towards new jobs, too.

If people can just get into a mortgage they can afford, instead of getting reset to a much higher payment, that's good. If they simply can't afford the house no matter what, I agree--let them get foreclosed. But I've heard plenty of horror stories of unscrupulous mortgage brokers putting people into resetting loans because the broker made more money from them.

tim said...

hopelessness...

http://ashizashiz.blogspot.com/2009/01/doctors-of-death.html

Anonymous said...

Haha.

HBM always leaving in a huff. So pompous. So superior.


===

Yes, hbm allways leave in a hissy fit, almost like he was a fem gay pussy who got her feelings hurt.

But then she always comes back, even after she promises to leave for good.

I'll read it, but I'm done commenting on it. Good bye.

January 12, 2009 4:30 PM

===

So, who wants to start a betting pool on when she comes back?

I bet that hbm can't stay away from commenting on this (okay buster, pissing on this) rock for more than 10 days.

I bet hbm (the real hissy fit hbm, not the faux hbms) writes a comment before Jan 22nd, 4:30pm. hbm can't stay away for more than 10 days.

Anonymous said...

hopelessness...

Learned Helpness - BEND ORYGUN -

It's in the kool-aide,

Anonymous said...

See I have a different take on HBM,

Sure he hates the US Constitution, 1&2, and sure he hates the USA,

But he also hates the PUG's, but the PUG's feed the bitch, they fed him at the BULL, and they feed him at the SORE,

He could never defame, and insult the SORE readership, so he comes over and tosses insults at us 'indys'. Go figure.

That said, its one SORE son-of-a-bitch.

He knows that Bend has been destroyed by the KUNTS he has been pimping for, for over 20 years, ...

So at his twilight he does all he can do, living in fear, one of the broken men, one of the walking dead of orygun, cuz if he pisses the BULL, they pull his retirement, ...

Living in Fear, welcome to Bend.

bruce said...

Hopefully, both. Obama wants another $800M to go towards new jobs, too.

*

BULL FUCK SHIT REAL-PUSSY.

OREO will spend the last $750 on PAULSON aka citi/BofA before Jan 20, 08, then he'll say, there ain't no more for da little fucks, ... imagine dat, ...

Imagine? Where does the PUSSY pull these figures? The $750B was authorized, and OREO will have it spent by PUG's on PUG-SHIT before taking orifice, by the time the OREO bring's legislation the PUB minority will be opposed to all socialism.

Get with the POGROM BP.

bruce said...

>> Fuck all you Repugs!!!!


*

The trouble with this rhetoric is NOT a single one of US is a PUG, we're all INDY's.

It's the FUCKIN HBM that is a incarnate of GAY EDGAR HOOVER, read the shit that HBM writes, that is J. Edgar. Hoover Rhetoric. FACT.

HBM is no liberal, he is a NAZI.

Anonymous said...

Web forums offer a venue for the most sick, twisted, bitter, vindictive and just plain crazy individuals in society to vent their hatred for other individuals – or the world in general – from behind a screen of anonymity. The ruling essentially means that whatever vileness somebody accuses you of on the Web – embezzlement, child abuse, mass murder – you have no recourse against him or against the business that allowed him to spew his lies.
- HBM The Sore-Eye 17dec2008

Anonymous said...

The ruling essentially means that whatever vileness somebody accuses you of on the Web – embezzlement, child abuse, mass murder – you have no recourse against him or against the business that allowed him to spew his lies. - hbm

*

Note the freudian slip, a true Nazi would have said 'they', but HBM always falls back to the 'him' or 'his', obviously a male fetish.

I ask you KUNTS was HBM fucked by a male as a child? How else can you account for this anger??????

Anonymous said...

BEND SORE/BULL learned-helplessness

He's No Longer Doctor Doom. Now He's Doctor Death.

Nouriel Roubini is one of "them". He has become a doctor of death.

When people take on increasing amounts of debt, they begin to feel hopeless. In fact, an increasing debt load with no way to pay it off is indicative of hopelessness. The overwhelming majority of folks who take on increasing amounts of debt know that they will not, in fact, win the lottery or have some other financial windfall which will allow them, at some point in the future, to get out of debt. And so with this reality bearing down on them, why do so many people nevertheless run up credit card debts into the tens if not hundreds of thousands of dollars?

The most widely accepted argument is that people need to employ debt in their struggle to survive: Individual or familial deficit spending as a way to pay the bills and put food on the table. Another argument points to our culture of addiction: that people use spending, and hence ever-increasing credit card debt, in the same way they would use alcohol or heroin---to ease the pain.

I do not disagree with those who posit the two aforementioned hypotheses with regard to the seemingly insane act of putting oneself further and further into slavery. But I think we’re missing one key factor: Utter hopelessness.

We in the West are a society of the hopeless. We search desperately for ways to feel OK, and our answers remain exogenous: spend, accumulate, possess. This lack of contentedness, of inner peace of mind, makes us anxious, and so we seek to mitigate our anxieties in the short term by spending money that we, in fact, do not have to buy stuff that we, in fact, do not need. And we feel OK for a moment, but the moment quickly passes and our anxiety grows because not only are we still totally empty and unfulfilled, but we now owe yet another thousand dollars to the man. And our slavery deepens. And eventually our anxiety morphs into depression, and our depression into hopelessness. And we max out our credit cards without a care, because in our hopelessness and despair we have become ready to die.

And so I would posit that, in our world, increasing levels of debt are not simply predictive of rising suicide rates, but in fact that taking on increasing amounts of unserviceable debt is actually a form of suicide. And so then isn’t it fair to paint the purveyors of this debt machine---the banks and the Obama’s with their trillion dollar stimulus plans and the Paulson’s and the Madoffs and the Greenspans---as financial Jack Kevorkian’s of a sort? Of course there is a major difference between Kevorkian and Paulson et al. In our current situation there are tens of thousands of folks who are suicidal, but none of them actually have a terminal incurable illness! In fact, the illnesses that they have could be cured by the very people who are assisting in their suicides?!?

And so when I hear Barney Frank and Barack Obama and Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke and Paul Krugman and Nouriel Roubini promote increased governmental spending---trillions of dollars in deficit spending, thus exponentially increasing the common man's future debt burden---to try and loosen credit markets so that all of the people in debt “choose” to go deeper into debt, I simply see these men as I see the guy who sells the daggers upon which the Juliet’s of the world impale themselves. Dealers in death, no better.

And so Nouriel Roubini, in his calls for trillions in spending to "save" the economy, is no different from the other doctors of death who populate Wall Street and Capitol Hill. No different.

bruce said...

Deep in my worthless drunk on Abyss (deschutes) heart of fuck darkness (Conrad) I still believe that HBM is one of us.

He can't tell the BULL what he feels, he can't tell Bend what he feels, and he can't tell the SORE what he feels.

What your seeing is the tremendous pain and suffering from a fellow human being.

Please be nice to HBM. When this is all over, you'll then see that he was one of us.

bruce said...

We in the West are a society of the learned helpless & hopeless.

*

Hell yes, for once in your fucking lives just open up, and tell the fucking truth.

Life is short KUNTS.

On your final death bed nobody will care either way, so tell the truth today, rather than die in a bed of lies.

bruce said...

I'm a Pug hating progressive, too.

###

What does that mean? Your a PUG that hates progressives? Or a progressive that hates Pug's??

Everytime I hear somebody say 'progressive' I see an asshole that doesn't have the balls to call himself what he is, a 'progressive' is by definition somebody with 'new ideas', there are no fucking 'new idea's, unless your fucking ignorant of all human history.

Quimby said...

>> Obama wants another $800M to go towards new jobs, too.

To hell with that idea, just run the presses and get C130s to fly over cities and dump cash out the back. THAT will solve the problem (rolling eyes)

bruce said...

Fuck Pug's

*

Yes, Yes, and Yes, ...

But even Marge, the most right-wing of all of US deny's being a PUG, even she calls herself an indy.

It's easy to fuck Pug's, but why not go to a pug blog???

This is an indy blog, certainly you can google 'go palin' and find a pug blog? Can't you??

Anonymous said...

Fuck all you fucking progressives.

A Progressive is a Liberal who is too chickenshit to admit it.

Anonymous said...

"hbm can't stay away for more than 10 days"

*

I'll take 8 days.

In fact, since he cried his pussy, puss-filled tear-streaked face outta here, he probably has been reading all of our hbm insults.

He left (rather Nixonesque, by saying "You won't have hbm to kick around anymore") in his emotional pity party, but he admitted that will continue to read this blog, just not comment.

I bet his fingers are burning right about now, just itching to get on the keyboard and spout his hbm wisdumb-shit all over this blog.

Anonymous said...

I bet his fingers are burning right about now, just itching to get on the keyboard and spout his hbm wisdumb-shit all over this blog.

***

I'll buy a Abyss double pint to the first person who outs hbm posting here as an "anonymous".

hbm is a fool who loves the sound of his foolish voice (oaky, loves the sight of his foolish written words) here on this blog. He can't stand to not be part of the dialogue, so he will insert himself, maybe even in the next TWO (2) days, but not as hbm (too much humiliation to go back on his word to leave this place) via an anonymous comment.

Again, a double Abyss to the first dude who out's his anonymous comment.

hbm will be back... his word is as trustworthy as the pussy's word on filing the Exec Session complaint!!!

Quimby said...

>> hbm will be back... his word is as trustworthy as the pussy's word on filing the Exec Session complaint!!!

ROFLMAO! God we're some sick fucks, eh?

bruce said...

A Progressive is a Liberal who is too chickenshit to admit it.

*

Yes, but a 'progressive' is a new liberal, he wears condoms when he fucks you.

Anonymous said...

http://images.heaven666.org/g/3/boooooobs-3.jpg

Mrs. Bend 2009, has been picked, and homer has already had his way with her.

Anonymous said...

I found homer's site by searching for big-tit bikiny girl, ... name of homers jpg

What's interesting is that it appears this shit is real, real fucking big tits, its obvious our homer is a kind-of-sewer of natural 'big women'.

bruce said...

Re: Mrs. Bend 2009

###

That's funny. Get your Butter out, rub it all over her, and roll her in the flour.

bruce said...

When an auto writer starts sounding like Marge, you know we're fucked. By Jeremy Clarkson, of one of my favorite Brit shows, Top Gear.

###

I was in Dublin last weekend, and had a very real sense I’d been invited to the last days of the Roman empire. As far as I could work out, everyone had a Rolls-Royce Phantom and a coat made from something that’s now extinct. And then there were the women. Wow. Not that long ago every girl on the Emerald Isle had a face the colour of straw and orange hair. Now it’s the other way around.

Everyone appeared to be drunk on naked hedonism. I’ve never seen so much just being drizzled onto so many improbable things, none of which was potted herring. It was like Barcelona but with beer. And as I careered from bar to bar all I could think was: “Jesus. Can’t they see what’s coming?”

Ireland is tiny. Its population is smaller than New Zealand’s, so how could the Irish ever have generated the cash for so many trips to the hairdressers, so many lobsters and so many Rollers? And how, now, as they become the first country in Europe to go officially into recession, can they not see the financial meteorite coming? Why are they not all at home, singing mournful songs?

It’s the same story on this side of the Irish Sea, of course. We’re all still plunging hither and thither, guzzling wine and wondering what preposterously expensive electronic toys the children will want to smash on Christmas morning this year. We can’t see the meteorite coming either.

I think mainly this is because the government is not telling us the truth. It’s painting Gordon Brown as a global economic messiah and fiddling about with Vat, pretending that the coming recession will be bad. But that it can deal with it.

I don’t think it can. I have spoken to a couple of pretty senior bankers in the past couple of weeks and their story is rather different. They don’t refer to the looming problems as being like 1992 or even 1929. They talk about a total financial meltdown. They talk about the End of Days.

Already we are seeing household names disappearing from the high street and with them will go the suppliers whose names have only ever been visible behind the grime on motorway vans. The job losses will mount. And mount. And mount. And as they climb, the bad debt will put even more pressure on the banks until every single one of them stutters and fails.

The European banks took one hell of a battering when things went wrong in America. Imagine, then, how life will be when the crisis arrives on this side of the Atlantic. Small wonder one City figure of my acquaintance ordered three safes for his London house just last week.

Of course, you may imagine the government will simply step in and nationalise everything, but to do that, it will have to borrow. And when every government is doing the same thing, there simply won’t be enough cash in the global pot. You can forget Iceland. From what I gather, Spain has had it. Along with Italy, Ireland and very possibly the UK.

It is impossible for someone who scored a U in his economics A-level to grapple with the consequences of all this but I’m told that in simple terms money will cease to function as a meaningful commodity. The binary dots and dashes that fuel the entire system will flicker and die. And without money there will be no business. No means of selling goods. No means of transporting them. No means of making them in the first place even. That’s why another friend of mine has recently sold his London house and bought somewhere in the country . . . with a kitchen garden.

These, as I see them, are the facts. Planet Earth thought it had £10. But it turns out we had only £2. Which means everyone must lose 80% of their wealth. And that’s going to be a problem if you were living on the breadline beforehand.

Eventually, of course, the system will reboot itself, but for a while there will be absolute chaos: riots, lynchings, starvation. It’ll be a world without power or fuel, and with no fuel there’s no way the modern agricultural system can be maintained. Which means there will be no food either. You might like to stop and think about that for a while.


I have, and as a result I can see the day when I will have to shoot some of my neighbours - maybe even David Cameron - as we fight for the last bar of Fry’s Turkish Delight in the smoking ruin that was Chipping Norton’s post office.

I believe the government knows this is a distinct possibility and that it might happen next year, and there is absolutely nothing it can do to stop Cameron getting both barrels from my Beretta. But instead of telling us straight, it calls the crisis the “credit crunch” to make it sound like a breakfast cereal and asks Alistair Darling to smile and big up Gordon when he’s being interviewed.

I can’t say I blame it, really. If an enormous meteorite was heading our way and the authorities knew it couldn’t be stopped or diverted, why bother telling anyone? Best to let us soldier on in the dark until it all goes dark for real....Right now, there are two paths you can go down. You can either adopt the Irish attitude to the impending catastrophe and party like it’s 1999. In which case you are better off ignoring the Vauxhall and buying a 24ft Donzi speedboat instead.

Or you can actually start to make some sensible preparations for the complete breakdown in society. In which case you don’t want a Vauxhall either. Better to spend the money on a pair of shotguns and an allotment.

Anonymous said...

Quimby said...
>> hbm will be back... his word is as trustworthy as the pussy's word on filing the Exec Session complaint!!!

ROFLMAO! God we're some sick fucks, eh?

*

No, just straight shooting truth tellers who shit on bullshitters and the bullshit they shit.

Anonymous said...

"Yes, but a 'progressive' is a new liberal, he wears condoms when he fucks you."

===

Aha. Splains everything.

bruce said...

O.C. lender with $1 billion in assets files bankruptcy
January 9th, 2009, 4:11 pm · 4 Comments · posted by Mathew Padilla, Reporter

BNC Mortgage, an Irvine-based subprime lender, filed for bankruptcy today to wind down its assets along with its parent Lehman Brothers, which also is bankrupt, reports Bloomberg.

The lender listed assets and debt of more than $1 billion each in its Chapter 11 petition in Manhattan. Here’s more from Bloomberg:

Lehman bought the unit, which specialized in subprime loans, in 2004, bringing it into the business which eventually led to the company’s demise. Lehman filed the biggest bankruptcy ever on Sept. 15, listing debt of $613 billion.

BNC joins another Lehman unit, Luxembourg-based Luxembourg Residential Properties Loan Finance, which filed for court protection in New York on Jan. 7. Both units want their bankruptcies consolidated with Lehman’s, according to court documents.

Consolidation is necessary “to experience a smooth transition into Chapter 11 with a minimum of delay, cost, and expense for the benefit of all parties in interest,” lawyers for BNC Mortgage said in court documents.

BNC Mortgage, along with another acquisition, Aurora Loan Services LLC, were used by Lehman to create a steady flow of debt to package into bonds. In the first quarter of 2006, BNC was lending more than $1 billion a month.

Lehman closed the unit on Aug. 22, exiting the subprime business as it declared that the U.S. housing recession was far from over. Subprime loans, made to homebuyers with weak or limited credit histories, were cited by Lehman in its bankruptcy filing.

Luxembourg Properties and BNC Mortgage will seek consolidation with the Lehman case at a hearing Jan. 14.

Read the full story HERE.

Anonymous said...

I heard a rumor yesterday that gottchaulks was closing,but no offical anouncement.can anybody confirm?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


All I do know is a ton of people have listed in the last 1-2 years, and NOT got one fucking offer, not even a lowball, so they just take the STD off the market and wait.


True. I see this everywhere. There are so many people waiting in the wings to sell, it's hard to know when we can possibly burn thru the current inventory & all the Dark Matter.

Layoffs at Cessna should add another 1-200.

tim said...

>>I heard a rumor yesterday that gottchaulks was closing,but no offical anouncement.can anybody confirm?

I'm sure there are rumors because they are almost out of money.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Note that a little chunk of Bull Credibility has been lost by SPECULATING that BEND IS DIFFERENT, BEND IS IMMUNE.

Bend may escape Cessna’s next ax

Wichita, Kan.-based Cessna Aircraft Co. plans a second round of layoffs, but Bend may survive further cuts because the company is focusing on ways to trim costs related to diminishing demand for business jets, Cessna spokesman Doug Oliver said.

Today?

Cessna to lay off 2,000 workers companywide

Cessna is Wichita's biggest employer, with 12,000 employees. The company also has 1,300 people working at its Independence facility and has manufacturing facilities in Columbus, Ga.; Bend, Ore.; and Chihuahua, Mexico.

Stangarone could not say exactly how many jobs might be cut at each location.

"Right now we are just saying across Cessna. We are not being any more specific than that," he said.


hbm, note that SPECULATION about the "positive" Cessna news came out Bend medias ASS en masse.

NEVER THE OPPOSITE. Always GOOD NEWS thrown out when the TRUTH is unknown. NEVER BAD.

THIS is why blogs serve a purpose that traditional LIAR MEDIA doesn't. But by God when WE throw out SPECULATIVE BAD NEWS, well then, it's VILE, BITTER AND VINDICTIVE.

Web forums offer a venue for the most sick, twisted, bitter, vindictive and just plain crazy individuals in society to vent their hatred for other individuals – or the world in general – from behind a screen of anonymity.

Hypocrisy Dude, that's what that is.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

ktvz is throwing it out there that the current layoffs may well exceed the last round that saw about 1/3rd of Bend's plant laid off.

THIS IS BEND.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

It’s back to work - if you’re lucky, that is
Central Oregon has the highest unemployment rate in the state, and local temporary employment agencies are struggling to keep up with the flood. In this economic climate, many who thought they were done with the workaday world have discovered ...

Central Oregon has the highest unemployment rate in the state; Crook County and Jefferson County have 12.4 and 12 percent unemployed, respectively, while Deschutes County comes in at just under 10 percent unemployed.

Just the beginning, folks. We'll do 15-20% unemployment before it's done.

Sorry hbm, about the sick/twisted/bitter/vile/vindictive SPECULATIVE LIES in the preceding prediction, and my horrible HORRIBLE schadenfreude since I obviously so badly WANT it to happen.

tim said...

It's hard to make anything out of the ktvz report.

tim said...

Saw something somewhere that we don't calculate unemployment the way we did in the 30s. According to the old methods, we're already very close to Depression unemployment.

I can't find the article now. Anyone else see it?

Quimby said...

Tim: Offshoot of you depression level unemployment idea....I don't see folks in bread/soup lines yet so it doesn't look as bad.

If a new CCC is formed by Obama, how will he handle illegals?

Is this an end of an era for illegals in the USA as more whitey's are willing to do jobs that fat/HELOC-rich Whitey's formerly didn't want to do? Now they gots to eat.

Thoughts?

Quimby said...

Offshoot of YOUR.... grrrrr

Anonymous said...

Tim,

We used to 'calc' un-employed by # of people out of work, who should have been working,...

Today we calc by the number of people collecting un-employment insurance, or looking for a job, most notable now, ...

1.) Those who give up looking are not counted,

2.) Those who work under the table are not counted ( Hello Bend )

3.) Those who are old/young are not counted, for instance a college student is not counted.

It's sort of a joke now, hell the DEFN of a depression is 10%, even using the 'Orwellian' methods today, we're already in a depression in the tri-county area here.

#1 above is the national joke, but #2 is Bend as most people in construction worked for cash.

Anonymous said...

The Wall Street Journal


Jan. 13, 2009

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the stimulus package being crafted by Barack Obama and Congress could provide a "significant boost" to the sinking economy. But he warned that such a recovery won't last unless other steps are taken to stabilize the shaky financial system.

Bernanke's statements marked the first time he has referenced the roughly $800 billion recovery plan now being worked on by Obama. Obama envisions a blend of tax cuts and increased government spending, including on big public works projects.

bruce said...

Re: Gottschalks

###

Word is that employees are being told to cash their paychecks ASAP.

They had an ad in the paper a couple of days ago stating today is their last day.

Anonymous said...

Sorry hbm, about the sick/twisted/bitter/vile/vindictive SPECULATIVE LIES in the preceding prediction, and my horrible HORRIBLE schadenfreude since I obviously so badly WANT it to happen.

*

This must be hard for HBM,COSTA,COVA,COBA,MOSS,.. They used tax payer money, the most beautiful PR&MARKETING people money can buy, and still they can't put the Bend Humpty Dumpty back together again.

Pay no attention to the 'bend economic RE bubble' ( price over-valuation ), just a fluke nothing to do with Bend, OR, ...

Econ Bubble - Econ Over-Valuation - Ingredients Required

1.) Fools tons of fools, limiting factor 'greatest fool'.

2.) Greed, nothing like Bend for Greed.

3.) Herding: Ah the secret of BEND RE over-valuation, cheap SDC's, PR&MARKETING, COVA/COBA,CORA,... endless city-paid plants in Outside Mag ( hbm/woodward ). Summit-1031 herd flippers from all over the country who want a tax-shelter, and unlimited ROI.

4.) Liquidity: Ah, another secret ingredient ala MOSS easy, cheap, money to anybody with a breath for four flippers each, ... Summit-1031 more cash, ...

So, here we are 2009, we have run out of 'fools with money' (1), Greed has turned to Fear, the 'HERD' is now leaving via UHAUL quicker than entry, and the Bank-of-Bend has 'texas ratio' that only the mother of a downs child could love.

So now what? Life support for 'humpty'?? Speculative-Bubbles never end well for those who bought the ITEM at top. Sad fact is Humpty hasn't even hit the fucking pavement yet, he's still in free-fall, Costa/HBM only now acknowledging he is off the wall.

Anonymous said...

BP,

Anything killer deals for the home? Kitchen? Going to be cooking a lot more the next few years, need some new shit, ... Are they going to give SHIT away, like they did at Linens and Things??

tim said...

>>They had an ad in the paper a couple of days ago stating today is their last day.

They did? Wow.

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