It's Guest Post Monday! The Mayor?

I have to apologize for not putting these 2 submissions to bendbubble2@gmail.com up sooner. I am just lame. Anyway, 2 guest posts, 1 from the Mayor, and 1 from an RE dude. First, his highness:

To whom it may concern ... (is this you Bruce?) I was looking at your blog and came across an amazing bit of text. A quote attributed to me that is not only inaccurate, but I never said it.

January 3, 2008 you wrote "Green is not alone as a second-home owner in Deschutes County. These days, two of every three dwellings in Bend, Oregon is a second home, according to Bend, Oregon Mayor Bruce Abernethy, himself a real estate broker."

What??? First of all, I would never say two out of three homes are second homes because it isn't true. Secondly, I am not and never have been a real estate broker. Where do you make this stuff up? I suppose I should give you some credit because you did get the part about me being mayor right.

Bruce Abernethy
383-6030 (w)

Now the RE dude:

General State of the Economy

I am a Real Estate Appraiser. I have worked as a Realtor, Loan Officer and Real Estate Appraiser here in Central Oregon since 1995. While I agree with the majority of your opinions regarding our local real estate industry, I wholeheartedly agree with your comments regarding the "bailout".

Bailout-
I think the term "pissing in the ocean" applies here. There is a reason the administration rushed this legislation through congress. The bailout is the biggest hoax on the American people since Reagan's deregulation. It would have been better to let these financial institutions fail, because the free market has shown that something better and stronger will take it's place. Think of these mortgages as a game of musical chairs... taxpayers are once again out of the game without a chair, but holding all the debt. As you've seen from the stock market the last few days... those in the know are not buying into the bailout as a saviour.

Family Wage Jobs-
The Central Oregon area has some special challenges that occur in other areas of the country (Aspen, Durango, Lake Tahoe come to mind). Unfortunately, we have a number of groups which have formed political alliances to maintain the status quo. The number one priority of our local government should be in obtaining family wage jobs. The status quo group of Realtors, Politicos, Developers and the Bend Bulletin believe that we should be building additional resorts. While tourism brings needed dollars and businesses to our area, the minimum wage jobs these industries spawn does nothing to raise the standard of living for the majority of Central Oregonians. The developing of our land, for resort use, benefits those at the top of our economic food chain with very little dribble down to the majority of Central Oregonians. The time, effort and money wasted by our local government spent in kowtowing to this cartel would be much better spent in wooing businesses to the area with tax breaks and/or other benefits.

The Local Housing Market-
I told my clients at the beginning of this year, that I believed our local housing market was going to get worse. The bad news is that we have not hit bottom yet. This makes the March 2008 prediction of recovery by Dana Bratton, one of our local appraisers, look that much more ridiculous. Home pricing will continue to spiral downward as credit tightens - it's a horrible snowball that is still gaining strength as it rolls down the hill. Check out Kevin Phillips book - Bad money : reckless finance, failed politics, and the global crisis of American capitalism. This gives a glimpse of how short sighted politicians have allowed greed to ruin our economy. Locally, foreclosures are increasing and driving the median home pricing down. This will continue to snowball as local businesses begin to fail and thereby force more pressure on homeowners already struggling to pay their monthly mortgage. This financial pressure has tragically manifested itself through a number of suicides and a rise in divorce filings. The financial strain of our declining real estate market takes a very real toll on the personal lives of all Central Oregonians.

Folks - it's going to get a bit worse before it gets better. There may be a very real up-tick in consumer confidence after the Presidential election. Look for positive signs in the economy after the first of the year. However, if this economic snowball continues, it could turn into an avalanche and take most of the world with it. Most economic experts are predicting a few years of stagflation. The only fix is to pry open the credit markets. This 700 billion dollars would have been much better spent establishing a direct government mortgage system. If consumers know they can once again have access to credit, then home pricing will stabilize and people will start spending again.

Of course, Central Oregon is still a great place to live and work. I am heartened by the citizens of Bend who care deeply about this place. I moved here for the lifestyle and I have not been disappointed, those who moved here to "get rich" in the housing industry can't help but be disappointed.

Thank you for allowing me to post...

David Skelton