Monday, September 29, 2008

Fear Nation

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Well, I'm going to do a short entry to break up the comments. And call me stupid, but as I noted earlier this week, there is a Big Element of Fear to Gee Dub's agenda.

This credit crunch is The Third Big One: First, the Iraq "War". And I always try to use quotes around "War", cuz it was never really a war, but more the annihilation of a country for oil, and a little payback for wanting to kill Daddy Bush, which I can understand.

Second, I group into Katrina Fear, but it's really the fear of natural disasters, Katrina just made it possible.

Third is this credit crisis. And this seems to be The Big One. I've heard such crap as we will be thrown into a Second Great Depression by today, if the Monster Pork Barrel $700bb bailout doesn't pass. THAT is how bad Wall Streeters want this thing.

I guess I don't know what The Bush Doctrine is either, outside of this Rule By Fear Agenda he's got going. Is this what Hitler did? Seriously. This is starting to feel like some sort of whacked dictator is running things.

And contrary to what hbm, Brucey, and Dunc think, I am a Repug that can think for himself. And if I had my druthers, McPain would come in Dead Last in the election, Osama would come in second, and some other Decent Candidate would win. Maybe Ron Paul, or someone. But that ain't gonna happen. It'll be one of these 2 ididots, both of whom are sellouts, and I suppose of the 2, I'd rather have Obama.

So I can think for myself, which is more than I can say for a lot of people. I'm thinking of registering Independent. The Dem's and Repug's are turning into twisted abominations, that aren't even about representing this countries people, but are more about hating each other.

Oy, this Fear Nation Rule has just reached a fever pitch, and there is no precedent for it. At least The "War" had 9/11. The hurricane fears had Katrina. I guess this bailout has...What? Bear Stearns going bust? Lehman? I mean, Who Cares? These things are MEANT to go down, if they have killed themselves.

It starting to feel like we, and I mean the U.S.A. are The Next 800 trillion lb Elephant ready to fail. They are really afraid of something I said well over a year ago to much guffaw, that This Housing Collapse will bring down this country. We're starting to hear that from our "leaders".

Maybe there is precedent. Maybe they do know we are knocking on Death's Door. Maybe this is The Big One, the one from which we will never really recover. Maybe we are, right now, The World's Fannie, Freddie, AIG, WaMu and a whole lot yet to come, All Rolled Into One. We are The World's Too Big To Fail Institution. Maybe the rest of the World wants us saved, because if we go down, so do they.

OK, there's a pretty good piece about the rising vacancy rates in Bend commercial property today. Watch for the "Zingers", the Games People Play That Don't Make Sense.

For businesses, a renters’ market
By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin

With vacancy rates for Bend’s commercial office space at 13.5 percent — more than double the empty space available early last year and a number that is expected to rise — landlords are offering incentives that range from rent reduction to tenant improvements to handing out cash.

The latest incentive for businesses looking to expand is geared toward helping companies overcome the financial hurdles resulting from the credit crunch; namely, the lack of financing available upfront for overhead costs such as new office computers and other equipment, and tenant improvements, said Brian Fratzke, principal broker for Fratzke Commercial Real Estate in Bend.

“A lot of landlords will take the first tenant with a pulse and a pocketbook,” he said. “But when this thing turns around, they’re going to say, ‘Darn, I’ve just devalued my building.’”

Instead of lowering lease rates, which devalues the building over time, one of Fratzke’s clients, owner of the 2,800-square-foot RedBend Office Building near the Redmond Airport, will give the tenant the first six months of rent free, up to $27,000, Fratzke said.

This is equal to giving a free month’s rent at move-in and one every 12 months thereafter, which is a common incentive, Fratzke said.

“What often happens in rent abatement is tenants will get one month free every 12 months,” Fratzke said. “Over the course of a five-year lease, that adds up to six months free. What we’ve done is offer the six months free upfront, so that the tenant can pay for their move-in and overhead costs.”

Commercial brokers are offering more incentives to get deals done, trying to ease concerns about expanding during tight economic times, said Eric Strobel, business development manager at Economic Development for Central Or-egon, which promotes business growth in the region.

“Anything that can be done on the commercial broker side to alleviate pressure on the company is helpful,” Strobel said. “Any help that can be given on the front end is a huge decision-making factor for the company.”

While tight credit sometimes makes it difficult for a company to expand, that’s a better problem to have than needing more credit to survive, Strobel said.

The slowdown in the commercial office sector has put growing companies in the driver’s seat when it comes to renegotiating lease terms or moving into new buildings, said Darren Powderly, a broker with Compass Commercial Real Estate Services in Bend.

“If a client says to me they will pay the asking price, without tenant improvements, but they want a check for $10,000, we’ll look at that,” Powderly said. “Obviously we want to look at their creditworthiness, and get corporate and personal guarantees (that they will stay for the length of the lease). If they walk a month later, you’re not looking very smart.”

Other trends include significantly cutting the rates on the first two years of a lease deal, Powderly said.

“Ironically, the tight credit market is helping leasing,” he said. “Even if the company thinks they’re in a great position to buy, they can’t get a mortgage. There’s no other option but to lease. It’s added some activity that would otherwise go toward purchasing.”

Bill Moseley, president of GL Suite, a software development company in north Bend, had planned to construct a new building in the NorthWest Crossing industrial area and move there when his lease expires in April.

But the slowdown in the commercial office market, along with higher costs of construction, has made it more expensive to put up a new building than to buy an existing one, Moseley said.

That, coupled with shrinking demand for space from real estate-related firms and several new, still-vacant buildings that have come online this year, makes leasing a no-brainer, Moseley said.

“It’s been bad for everyone else, but if you’re someone leasing or considering buying a building, there’s no better time.”

The Bulletin, Always Selling RE. Just can't help it.

Vacancies rising? Hell, that's Great News!

Vacancies falling? Hell, that's Great News!

I like how giving 6 months Free Rent at an inflated rent rate makes the building More Valuable. Here's a pic of a Realtor & his reading material, who believes such tripe:
Please, don't drop your monthly rate, just give 6 free months rent instead! That doesn't hurt property values! Now I have to go read something important that's been confusing me...

Another good piece this week is by Fleckenstein.

What's next, a ban on stock sales?

Prices aren't to the government's liking, so it's changing the rules on the fly, and no one knows where or when new lines eventually will be drawn.
By Bill Fleckenstein

The Securities and Exchange Commission has a list, and it's checking it twice. It's a compendium of nearly 1,000 companies the so-called watchdog has now pronounced off-limits to short-selling.

If this do-not-short list weren't such a travesty, it would be hilarious. Among the companies the SEC wants to "protect" are the ones -- Moody's (MCO, news, msgs) and McGraw-Hill (MHP, news, msgs), to name just two -- that did such a horrendous job rating the mortgage paper that helped cause this debacle in the first place.

The Cox virus unleashed

In the end, SEC Chairman Chris Cox and friends will discover that this will turn out to be an epic example of the law of unintended consequences. They've probably just succeeded in blowing up a tremendous number of quantitative-oriented money managers and hedge funds. In essence, this targets anyone who runs a long-short fund or arbitrage fund of any kind, and anyone who manages any sort of stock basket.

To distill those gory details down to their essence, what the SEC has done is guarantee that less liquidity will be available for markets.

I suppose that if this doesn't work, the next step will be to just outlaw selling altogether. After all, that does seem to be the government's response to prices it doesn't like. There was a witch hunt for speculators in commodities on the long side when oil (and various food items) went higher over the summer. Obviously, we've seen that lower stock prices have also precipitated a government response.

So when the bond market eventually revolts -- because of the cumulative effect of the Federal Reserve’s monetizing any and all pieces of paper the Treasury buys -- is the government then going to ban the short-selling of government bonds? Will it eventually say you can't sell dollars? How is any rational person supposed to plan for where the government may draw the line as to what sort of "manipulation" it may condone?

Meanwhile, one item you'll likely never see on the SEC's to-do list: leading the charge on reforming financial statements. Scrutiny of IBM (IBM, news, msgs) would be a perfect start, as the company has shown itself to be a financial engineer of the first order. Nevertheless, IBM last Tuesday begged its way onto the do-not-short list.

This happened even as IBM has been borrowing money to buy back its own shares while it crows about what good shape it's in. The stock is off only about 15% from the highest price it's ever traded at. And it sports a short interest of 10 million shares -- not that much more than IBM trades on any given day and microscopic relative to the 1.354 billion shares it has outstanding.

Any real, untroubled company would be completely embarrassed to be on that list. Thus, in my opinion, IBM's actions are perfectly fitting with how it operates.

The on-closer-inspection rejection

Of course, anyone with any knowledge of history and an IQ above room temperature knows that many of the financial institutions now in trouble have themselves, not the short sellers, to thank for their plights. I'd like to offer the following example, via a recent Bloomberg story headlined "Ten days changed Wall Street as Bernanke saw 'massive failures'":

"The storm in the markets began with a long-deferred nod to reality by Lehman. The 158-year-old, New York-based firm had possible acquirers inspecting its books. They discovered that Lehman hadn't yet written down its portfolio of subprime mortgages . . . as aggressively as some other Wall Street firms."

So, in all likelihood, what the short sellers are being blamed for is the harsh reality that Lehman shareholders would just as soon not take "ownership" of. That is not to say there wasn't any short-selling, but rather that short interest in Lehman was never large. In fact, short-selling was rather modest. As of the last reading, it had dropped to just less than 28 million shares from almost 54 million in June. (For reference, the company had 689 million shares outstanding.)

Security says, 'Remove your shoes -- and your shorts'

Nonetheless, despite any and all facts to the contrary, the SEC and the government have resolved to pursue their idiotic "solution" in terms of banning short-selling of certain stocks for the time being. They also have demonstrated that rules don't mean anything, because they are willing to change them whenever it suits their purposes, no matter how disruptive or foolhardy those changes may be.

A friend summed up the situation by commenting that we're in an environment where "short sellers . . . are risking private money betting against badly run businesses and governments are risking public money betting in favor of badly run businesses. You don't need a Ph.D. in finance to know which group of folks believe in truth and free markets. . . . You can expect to see all foreign banks move their toxic waste to their U.S. subsidiaries for delivery to Henry's Helpful Handouts."

One wouldn't have to be too cynical to conclude that we now know the real reason Treasury chief Hank Paulson decided he needed a $700 billion bazooka. I don't mind him helping out old friends at Goldman Sachs (GS, news, msgs), and I would prefer that the financial system not implode. But I find this bailout bill completely outrageous. Though I won't hold my breath, I hope it doesn't get enacted as currently proposed.

The silver lining: Halting a money-fund run

If I were to try to find the piece of last week's actions that was least objectionable, I would say it was putting a halt to the run on the money market funds. I know that places at a disadvantage all the people who prudently owned government-only paper, like many of my readers. But just as, when push came to shove, American International Group (AIG, news, msgs) had to be bailed out, a run on the money market funds would have been devastating to too many innocent bystanders.

The bottom line is that the government has decided it doesn't like where the prices of houses are, where the prices of mortgage-related debt securities are, where the prices of commodities are and where certain stock prices are, so it has elected to change them all by fiat. It won't work, and one of these days, the bond market will be absolutely shattered.

If Congress manages to agree on a bailout bill, the financial crisis will probably be over (but I'll reserve judgment until I see the action in all markets in the wake of the legislation).To that extent, the government's actions will keep the economy from getting "extra-worse" on the back of a stock market crash and a run on the money funds.

Having said that, when folks discover just how weak the economy is, especially now that we've blown out all kinds of participants in the stock market, we may still get some sort of a crash or serious sleigh ride south, though it's really hard to draw conclusions at the moment.

We obviously have been close to a crash in the stock market and a seizing up of the financial system. But regardless of what the "experts" say (most of them, after all, saw none of these problems coming), my fear is that the worst is still in front of us.

Keep the plates spinning. Fear Nation. If we don't keep the plates spinning.... What? We'll all have to actually... My God.... Live Within Our Means? Guns, butter, beans, and Gallo?

I don't think we'll collapse into a New Stone Age. We'll simply have to spend what we make, and Stop. And that's it. But to The New Corporate Government, that is Armaggedon. That's The End of the World. There's no point in even surviving such a disaster.

I see the markets are cratering this morning. Citi going to take over Wachovia. Wachovia hasn't opened yet, but pre-market, it is indicated down 90%, from $10 to 90 cents per share.

I really hate saying I told you so, but... well, let's say I was part of a small cadre of people who said this thing would end catastrohically early on. Over a year and a half ago. I said the US would, as a country, actually become Second Fiddle. We would become a has-been. You are watching The Fall of a Civilization. There are a lot of people for whom it will not be apparent until it is over, but it is apparent to me that it is inevitable. It's happening right now. We are bearing witness to a country destroying itself.

It's why I disagreed with BEM & Buster about "doing something" to Save Bend. Bend cannot be saved, it is Far Worse Off than the rest of the country. This country will tear itself to pieces trying to save itself, like a wolverine in a burlap sack thrown into a river. Nothing will help. Nothing will save Bend either.

I've also said that I hoped to position myself Delta Negative for this thing. Hell, that's like standing on the last point of the Titantic to go down. I'm probably only doing well with respect to those that are already in the water. This thing will take us all down.

There's nothing to do about this thing. It's like the tsunami of ~3 yrs ago: It's an unstoppable force. It'll wipe clean everything in it's way. And right now, we are in it's way. This bailout is like building a 1ft tall wall of sandbags against an unstoppable tsunami, 100% futile. It makes The Bulletin's attempts to revive Bend RE pretty laughable. Remind me of yet another recent Fleckstein piece:

Whatever we do, it will be wrong

It's time to start thinking about digging out from this crumbled financial house of cards. With heaps of blame to go around, it's clear that past policies won't help.
By Bill Fleckenstein

Tread lightly and thoughtfully
Events continue to move at a fast and furious pace. I don't think we've seen the last of startling actions. As for the investment ramifications of all of this action and potential future action, I think folks need to understand that amid the crosscurrents and head fakes, the potential to make mistakes is going to be extremely high. Probably the fewer decisions made right now, the better.

However, all decisions should be made with the expectation that the economic and financial environment will get far worse. For those of us who are professionals, a friend suggested that Henry Kissinger's comments about the Balkans should be kept in mind: "Whatever you do will be wrong, including nothing." That seems an appropriate warning.

367 comments:

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IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

This Wachovia "bailout" is especially sacry, because there was nothing more than regular "volatility" presaging it's demise. WB actually traded at $10/sh last Friday.

No one saw this one coming. At least not coming today.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

My Magic Buy Number is about to get hit...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

National City (NCC) may also bite the dust soon.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Needless to say, CACB is ridiculously overpriced compared to it's peers. It already meets the "rough" definition of a "troubled bank": 5+% NPA.

tim said...

Notice how the FDIC is getting involved in these transactions while keeping banks away from the FDIC insurance. Pretty nifty jig they're dancing for now.

LavaBear said...

>>>National City (NCC) may also bite the dust soon.

I'm now starting to think about who WON'T bite the dust soon. Seems like we are gonna end up with 4-5 huge Federally subsidized banks and then a whole bunch of very small local credit unions. Seems like a decent time to start the Bank of Lavabear. I'll use more of the mafia's style of debt collection versus the foreclosure method currently in use. I could give a shit about your house, I'm gonna sleep with your wife and your kids are gonna crush rocks in the pumice pit as you recover from all of your broken bones.

Anonymous said...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
National City (NCC) may also bite the dust soon.

*

I was following your advice last spring when Bear died, and NCC was next. I have a big 2nd with NCC. I grabbed it all that morning. The closed my 2nd right after I got a hold of the money. Hahaha. Too late, I took all my LOC out just as they closed it off. Let em die.

Happy camper.

hbm said...

Bailout bill defeated, Dow drops 700 points.

hbm said...

How did we get to this point? It’s the culmination of many past betrayals.

First of all, we have the Republican Study Committee blowing things up with a complete nonsense proposal — solving the crisis with a holiday on capital gains taxes. How is that possible? Well, if a party runs on economic nonsense for 25 years, eventually many of its foot soldiers will be people who actually believe the nonsense.

More specifically, though, the failure to get a deal reflects the betrayals of the Bush years. Democrats weren’t going to trust Henry Paulson, because behind him they see the ghost of Colin Powell (and Paulson’s “all your bailout are belong to me” proposal, aside from being bad economics, showed an incredible tone-deafness.)

And after the way the Bushies and their allies double-crossed the Democrats again and again in the aftermath of 9/11 — demand national unity, then accuse you of being soft on terrorists anyway — there’s no way Pelosi and Reed will do the responsible but unpopular thing unless the Republicans agree to share ownership.

So what we now have is non-functional government in the face of a major crisis, because Congress includes a quorum of crazies and nobody trusts the White House an inch.

As a friend said last night, we’ve become a banana republic with nukes.
-- Paul Krugman


And wasn't that the neo-con goal from the git-go?

bruce said...

RE: And wasn't that the neo-con goal from the git-go?

Yes, with them in control of the tools of empire. And raking in the jewels.


RE: "Whatever you do will be wrong, including nothing."

It has to be that way. At best you can exit a bubble with a parachute. That might have been possible two years ago. Now it's far too gone.

Our entire credit-based economy has turned into a house of paper, especially since the CFMA in 2000 allowed completely unregulated new sources of financial paper to be created and sold. A market of paper that now is larger than the market of actual production in the entire world.

Until this pile of paper is painfully digested (think the night after you had street tacos in Cabo, plus the next few days recovering) and any new paper is transparently regulated (forcing the sellers bear full responsibility for their stated backing assets) this will just happen all over again.

After Wall St. has sucked a few trillion more out of Main St.

bruce said...

Another big financial day tomorrow, as it is the closing day for yearend redemption requests from hedge funds. We will probably hear about another huge crisis on Wednesday.

bruce said...

Bloomie: Fed Pumps Further $630 Billion Into Financial System (Update3)

``By committing to provide a very large quantity of term funding, the Federal Reserve actions should reassure financial market participants that financing will be available against good collateral, lessening concerns about funding and rollover risk,'' the central bank said.

Without taxpayer dollars, but the dollar itself will take a hit.

bruce said...

At the end of that Bloomie article:

The bank-rescue plan being debated by Congress today would give the Fed more power over short-term interest rates by providing authority as of Oct. 1 to pay interest on reserves held at the central bank by financial institutions. That would make it easier for the Fed to pump funds into the banking system.

Paying interest on reserves puts a ``floor'' under the traded overnight rate, which would allow a central bank ``to provide liquidity during times of stress'' without affecting the rate, New York Fed economists said in a paper last month.


I saw this in the bailout bill, and wondered about it. And still can't figure out why it's a good idea.

It seems to just make the actual interest rate even lower, without lowering the nominal rate. Japan, deja vu.

Thoughts?

BTW, can you believe that the uproar of people calling their reps actually derailed this motherfucker?

Anonymous said...

>>BTW, can you believe that the uproar of people calling their reps actually derailed this motherfucker?

It's insane. Almost as if we lived in a democracy.

Anonymous said...

Pussy writes:
"BTW, can you believe that the uproar of people calling their reps actually derailed this motherfucker?"

===

Yeah, Pussy, we remember all your ranting and raving last week to call everybody and their mother to vote against this bill. Well, CongressCritters Wu, Bluemenhauer, Defazio all voted against this bill.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

RE: And wasn't that the neo-con goal from the git-go?

Yes, with them in control of the tools of empire. And raking in the jewels.


Notice that Dem's were pushing this Corporate Welfare bailout as hard as anyone... if not harder.

Wake Up White Peepul: The freakin Lib's have sold out to Corporate America as much as anyone.

bruce said...

Sorry, see you next year. It's not hard to go away.

I just try to provide info. I drink it.

Interesting, Walden voted for it?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

BTW, can you believe that the uproar of people calling their reps actually derailed this motherfucker?

I give you kudos on that one, Brucey.

bruce said...

Re: The freakin Lib's have sold out to Corporate America as much as anyone.

Truth. And those that did are getting fucking hammered by Kos.

There has been an explosion on the progressive side over this.

Anonymous said...

>>There has been an explosion on the progressive side over this.

Meaning what? I assume that there are progressives on both sides of the issue, no?

Pelosi looked pretty bad today (meaning dried up and beat). What are the ramifications for the leadership? Just a couple sentences, please. Not a link.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Another Black Monday for Wall Street
Major indexes suffered their biggest percentage declines since the 1987 crash as the government's bailout plan was defeated Monday

Wall Street was pinning its hopes on the government's $700 billion financial system rescue plan. But the fervently wished-for bailout was rejected Monday by the House of Representatives in a stunning turn of events, and investors reacted with a vengeance. Major U.S. stock indexes plummeted Monday in one of their worst sessions ever.

The ugliness was widespread, with major indexes posting their worst percentage declines since the 1987 stock market crash. The Dow industrials fell 5.4%, the S&P 500 sank 7.8%, and the Nasdaq plunged a jaw-dropping 9.1%. The Dow suffered its biggest-ever closing loss in point terms:

Biggest Point Drops in the Dow

Date Close Point Drop Percent Decline
Sept. 29, 2008 10,365.45 777.68 -6.98%
Sept. 17, 2001 8,920.70 684.81 -7.13%
Apr. 14, 2000 10,305.77 617.78 -5.66%
Oct. 27, 1997 7,161.15 554.26 -7.19%
Aug. 31, 1998 7,539.07 512.61 -6.37%
Oct. 19, 1987 1,738.74 508.00 -22.61%

On Monday, the blue-chip Dow Jones industrial average fell 777.68 points, or 6.98%, to 10,365.45. The broader S&P 500 index dropped 106.85 points, or 8.81%, to 1,106.42. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index tumbled 199.61 points, or 9.14%, to 1,983.73.

Activity in the broader market was overwhelmingly negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, 31 stocks fell in price for every one that gained. The ratio on the Nasdaq was 25-4 negative.

Bonds soared amid the chaos in equities. The dollar index climbed. Crude oil futures sank, while gold futures rose.

The House defeated the bailout measure, which had been crafted by the White House and legislative leaders over the weekend, by a vote of 226-207. The news, which took many investors by surprise, drove the Dow down over 700 points during the session as disappointed investors fled to the safety of Treasury bonds and gold. Other major indexes followed suit and posted outsized losses.

The rescue plan, as agreed to by lawmakers and the White House over the weekend, would use taxpayer money -- $350 billion initially, and up to $700 billion with Congressional approval -- to buy mostly soured mortgage-backed securities from Wall Street firms and banks. By taking these securities off the banks' hands, the bailout plan seeks to restore confidence in the financial system and ensure that banks can still carry on their fundamental role of handling payments and offering credit to the masses.

House members were expected to head back to the negotiating table, though it appeared unlikely that there would be a second vote Monday. Regardless of the outcome, the world appears headed for a recession with the global banking system in convulsions, says S&P MarketScope.

"Today Congress managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and shareholders voted with their feet ... as we moved toward the close of trading volume increased and there was an air of desperation," says Michael Farr, President of investment firm Farr, Miller & Washington LLC in Washington DC. "The rule is that markets top on irrational exuberance and bottom on fear and panic. The problem is, those emotions can last for a while."

Beyond the "short term noise" of the bailout drama, Farr notes that economic fundamentals in decline. "Consumer spending is contracting, energy and food prices remain high for the consumer. Unemployment is rising and other developed markets around the world are beginning their decline which removes them from the list of really good customers of our goods and services."

"The Dow is down about 4,000 points from its high almost a year ago - that by anyone's definition is a bear market," says Farr. "It may have more to go but we are much closer to the bottom than the top."

What should investors take away from Monday's market? "Emotional decisions are mistakes - if you feel like you need to do something think about what you want to buy when things are down and don't think about what you want to sell when things are down," says Farr.

Finance, commodity and technology related industry groups were hammered mercilessly Monday. Among the S&P industry indexes under the gun:

Investment Banking & Brokerage fell 14.82% amid big drops in Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS). Asset Management was down 17.12%.

Diversified Banks was down 13.50%, paced by Wachovia Corp. (WB), which fell nearly 80% after it announced plans to sell its retail bank, corporate and investment bank and wealth management businesses to Citigroup (C).

Regional Banks was down 13.14% amid investor jitters likely due to the assumption that this group faces a similar situation as Washington Mutual. The shares of industry member National City Corp. (NCC) were down significantly.

Consumer Finance was down 12.78% as shares of American Express (AXP) were weak after Credit Suisse cut its estimates and target on the stock. Credit Suisse said it expects AmEx's credit quality deterioration to continue over next several quarters.

In technology, Computer Hardware was down 9.23%, dragged lower by Apple (AAPL) after Morgan Stanley downgraded its rating on the stock to equal weight from overweight. RBC Capital lowered its rating on the stock to sector perform from outperform, citing a worsening consumer spending environment.

In commodities, Diversified Metals & Mining fell 16.60%, while other commodity groups such as Coal (-17.63%), Steel (-18.50%) and Aluminum (-9.96%) came under pressure as a defeated financial rescue plan heightened fears the world is headed into a severe recession that will reduce demand for commodities.

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sank 13.83% along with November crude oil futures amid concerns that slowing global economic growth would likely lessen demand for oil.

Treasuries surged on the back of a flight to safety as the House of Representatives failed to pass a rescue package for the financial sector. The 10-year note soared 66/32 to 103-04/32 for a yield of 3.62%. The 30-year bond rocketed 120/32 to 105-25/32 for a yield of 4.16%.

Fed funds futures are almost fully priced for a 50 basis point Fed rate cut next month, says Action Economics. "While the market is being dramatically skewed by flight to quality flows, many are starting to factor in the probability of a recession, and perhaps a deep one which the Fed might address with further easing."

The VIX equity volatility index surged above 47 as the bailout vote failed and stocks nose-dived. That puts the market's favored "fear gauge" through the 42.16 6-year high hit recently, notes Action Economics. It would take a move to 50-60 to reach areas previously struck at the times of inflection/capitulation points on stocks, with the next upside benchmark the 110 area struck on Black Monday in 1987.

PIMCO fund manager Bill Gross predicted a "freeze of significant proportions" in the credit markets if the rescue plan is truly dead -- "even more frozen than before" in a CNBC interview. As a next step for authorities, he sees the possibility that coordinated interest rate cuts are undertaken by global central banks if the credit markets seize up further and stocks plunge.

Markets around the world were also disturbed by more turmoil among financial institutions as the credit crisis goes global, with indexes in London and Paris dropping over 5% Monday. Among the developments: news that Wachovia's (WB) banking assets were to be acquired by Citigroup (WB) and that the Justice Dept. and Securities and Exchange Commission subpoenaed mortgage giant Freddie Mac's (FRE) records. News that two European banks were being nationalized suggested that the industry's problems were global in nature.

Monday brought word of another shotgun marriage for a troubled financial firm. Wachovia plans to sell its retail bank, corporate and investment bank and wealth management businesses to Citigroup (C). Wachovia will remain a public company with two main operating subsidiaries: Wachovia Securities, the nation's third largest brokerage firm, and Evergreen Asset Management, a leading provider of asset management services. Citi will pay $2.1 billion to Wachovia and assume the company's senior and subordinated debt. The FDIC would backstop any losses beyond $42 billion on Wachovia's $312 billion pool of loans.

In economic news Monday, U.S. personal income rose 0.5% in August, and above the 0.2% markets had expected. However, spending was flat and below the 0.2% increase. Moreover, July and June spending readings were also revised down. Disposable income fell 0.9%, a third consecutive monthly decline. The savings rate slowed to 1.0%. The core PCE deflator accelerated to a 2.6% rate compared to 2.5% in July (revised from 2.4%).

"Consumption spending shows a significantly weaker trend after this morning's personal income report," wrote Morgan Stanley economist David Greenlaw in a note Monday.

"The income data are a little better than expected, while the deflator numbers were a little worse. However, markets today will likely focus on the credit markets and the Congressional vote on the rescue package," wrote S&P senior economist Beth Ann Bovino Monday.

Fed funds futures were mixed in early trading Monday as traders bet on the merits of the Treasury bailout package, and weigh the likelihood of its success in rescuing the financial markets and salvaging economic growth, according to an Action Economics report. The market is fully priced for a 25 basis point rate cut at next month's Fed policy meeting, says Action, with some modest risk for a 50 basis point easing, even though the Fed has indicated over the past several months it prefers to hold the line on the target Fed funds rate at 2%.

"We still believe the Fed will hold its powder dry unless data show the economy is taking a severe hit from the credit stresses," according to Action Economics analysts.

There were also some worrisome new credit-crisis developments out of Europe on Monday.

The deepening of the financial turmoil has led to sharp rise in interbank rates and the ECB allotted €120 billion in a special 38 day tender, that will be extended into next year. Meanwhile European central banks have announced that they will double their USD swap facilities in another co-ordinated move to deal with the troubles in the financial sector.

Belgian, Dutch, and Luxembourg governments agreed to inject €11.2 billion (US$16.4 billion) into Fortis, and U.K. mortgage lender Bradford & Bingley became the second British bank to be taken under the government's wing since the crisis began last year. Fortis is the first major euro zone bank to buckle under the financial turmoil triggered in August last year by U.S. mortgage defaults.

Meanwhile, Germany's Hypo Real Estate secured credit guarantees of €35 billion, the bulk of which will be provided by the German government.

European stock markets plunged Monday. In London, the FTSE 100 index fell 5.3% to 4,818.77. In Paris, the CAC 40 index declined 5.04% to 3,953.48. Germany's DAX index shed 4.23% to 5,807.08.

Asian markets were also feeling the heat Monday. Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell 1.26% to 11,743.61. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index dropped 3.26% to 17,880.68.

The dollar index was higher at 77.59.

December gold futures were up $25.60 to $914.10 per ounce in volatile trading Monday afternoon. Investors were seeking the haven of gold in a flight to safety from worries the current financial crisis in the U.S. and Europe will result in a global recession. While a recession would reduce demand for commodities, some view gold as an alternative and safer investment. Regardless, the liquidity and negative sentiment in the banking sector will not go away soon and will have to be dealt with by the next administration.

November West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures tumbled $10.48 to $96.41 per barrel Monday afternoon after the House defeated the financial rescue plan.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

House members were expected to head back to the negotiating table, though it appeared unlikely that there would be a second vote Monday. Regardless of the outcome, the world appears headed for a recession with the global banking system in convulsions, says S&P MarketScope.

I question the implication that because the bailout vote failed, we are now headed for recession.

This thing was doomed many, Many moons ago.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The VIX equity volatility index surged above 47 as the bailout vote failed and stocks nose-dived. That puts the market's favored "fear gauge" through the 42.16 6-year high hit recently, notes Action Economics. It would take a move to 50-60 to reach areas previously struck at the times of inflection/capitulation points on stocks, with the next upside benchmark the 110 area struck on Black Monday in 1987.

Come, my precious....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And hell, maybe Bush was actually right!

Maybe The Second Great Depression DID arrive today!

Sum'bitch had to be right once.

Anonymous said...

today I saw a guy with an oversized confederate flag on top of his pickup off reed market and it read- the confederacy will come back?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Nobody wants to take over this blog? I can't believe it!

This baby has low mileage, it's a creampuff! Only driven by an elderly old geezer with Turrets, this motherfucker is ready for you to take the wheel!

Please! It don't get any better than this! The World is your oyster, and currently that oyster is spewing forth a litany of spanktacular newsworthy bullshit!

This thing writes itself! Timmy! Take the wheel! Someone!

Anonymous said...

Major indexes suffered their biggest percentage declines since the 1987 crash as the government's bailout plan was defeated Monday

*

There is a god, there is, there is, US democracy just might be working ...

In the past ten years DEM's&Pug's got $2billion from wall-st, and the $700B would have meant more.

Note sure that the PROGRESSIVES had a fucking thing to do with this, it was the GINGRICH folks that caused FEAR in the heart of the OR-BUSH-EO democrat's.

Praise!!!

Yes, the Recession started in May 2007, and the Depression started in Sep 1, 2008.

Now 5-10 long lean years, but you know what?? We fucking NEED IT!

Marge, I was out at one of my 'holes' digging in for end times, cutting fire wood, and stocking supply's in my favorite 'rabbit-hole'.

HOMEE you love this site, just keep your sunday posts to new more than 15min/week, and you'll do fine.

Anonymous said...

Had this BITCH passed, it would have been OR-BUSH-EO and the DEM's that made it pass.

A few DEM's were smart enough to think about election.

The best part of this is that it BITCH-SLAPS BUSH, PAULSON, & BERNANKE for good.

Hopefully now in the NEXT term with prez OR-BUSH-EO, we'll not see anymore PAULSON.

Anonymous said...

Marge,

FYI from my 'rabbit-hole' there is no internet, need to rig some kind of 3G antenna off a Juniper and use a solar WIFI to pump a signal down, but its going to be a while.

During 'end times' like this its good to have a news black-out from time-to-time, once your out in the hole, hiding out in the wild's, who gives a fuck what is happening in the 'world'.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

C'mon marge, Timmy, Buster, hbm, Brucey, The Professor & Marianne! This is the Greatest News Era of This or Any Decade!

This fucking country is imploding on itself! Might not be jocular, but there's a lot of material!

I want to hear from someone else! Doesn't have to be War & Peace! A little ditty about why we wouldn't be in this mess if LIB'S WERE IN CHARGE! C'mon! You'll be ripped to pieces, but hell, so am I. It ain't that bad.

C'mon Buster. Marge. Tim. Send it along, I'll put your name up in lights! It'll be great!

Anonymous said...

>>This thing writes itself! Timmy! Take the wheel! Someone!

I've told you before.

Just write a post with 5 lines of news once a week and we'll fill in the comments.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Well, KTVZ 's lead story had a financial advisor on air. A contrary indicator if ever I've seen one.

Anonymous said...

Just who took the picture of linda Johnson that is on her reelection posters around town? DMV? Did she really approve it.Must of been city of police mug shot takers.

Marge said...

Marge, I was out at one of my 'holes' digging in for end times, cutting fire wood, and stocking supply's in my favorite 'rabbit-hole'.
Keep it up..I bought more ammo and gas today and hit the grocery outlet for some extreme buys. I figure my money can't make 10 to 30% in the bank or market. If I stock up on foods that I eat at discounts like that I am well ahead of the game. Silver or gold are harder to sell than the barter value of a can of peaches or bag of brown sugar. Staples, on sale, are a great investment vehicle. The stock market is gone for a while. Good investments start near home and have value to someone you know or meet. Prep the rabbit hole.

Anonymous said...

I heard that sister....Man, I am glad for once that I had to learn how to do all the crap ( like make lye soap, can food, dress an animal, ect.) that I did growing up. Hoped like hell I'd never have to use those skills regular like though. I will admit I have only canned food since I left my parents house.
The dumb optimist in me hopes this house of cards will hold long enough to finish getting my nursing lisc. However, I know that might not happen in the way I had planned.

Dottiebug

bruce said...

Re: Pelosi looked pretty bad today (meaning dried up and beat). What are the ramifications for the leadership? Just a couple sentences, please. Not a link.

I think they are shaken to the core. The progressives, symbolized by Kos, won this one. And ain't giving up. The BS is continuing to hit the fan over their (a place with one a readership comparable to CNN.com) as shown by this:

Treasury Officials Admit Bill's CEO Compensation Measure and Restrictions on Paulson Were a Farce, a diary about a private conference call between Treasury and Wall St. executives that some bloggers got the phone number for.

Populism at it's finest. And the reason they are going to try to shut the internet down, like is stated in PNAC's seminal paper.

Butter, I'll write something next Sunday.

BTW, just got back from the CC working meeting about the budget. Things are beyond bad, they are not hiring the people just approved, cutting others, but at least Sonia seems to have found a partner in Eric King to attack it head on. Finally. No BS, we are fucked, and these are the things we are going to cut to survive, or pretty close, anyway.

But by no means are we out of the woods yet. Far from it.

Funniest line of the night: Patti Stell telling me "You don't believe anything I say!" when I was asking about availability of some docs.

Wednesday is a Juniper Ridge Management Board working meeting with the CC. Should be interesting. Don't think they will allow common people to say anything, but...

Marge said...

Bruce Said "Funniest line of the night: Patti Stell telling me "You don't believe anything I say!" when I was asking about availability of some docs.

Funnier that the common(Patti) are calling folks or treating others like commoners! Is it income. knowledge? What? Or just the fact you are not a Bend City insider(whom are all common). Bruce gettey up on them!

bruce said...

Yeah, I'm "dumb" and stubborn, Marge. I don't think they all like that, although some of the other staff seems to.

More on that conference call here: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/09/mussolini-style-corporatism-in-action.html

bruce said...

Various readers wrote us, and it was confirmed by a detailed report on the call at DealBreaker, that the Treasury Department held a conference call this evening for analysts on the bailout bill. A memo was evidently sent to SIFMA members; others may have been contacted by other means. But the report I got from one person who was on the call was the the questions came from financial services industry members. In other words, this was most assuredly not intended to be a call open to the public at large. If anyone from the media or other member of the great unwashed was listening in, it was by accident.

This is simply scandalous. To have a group of interested parties get a privileged briefing by government officials on a matter of keen public interest flies in the face of what a democracy is supposed to be about. The proper method would either be a published FAQ on the Treasury website or a briefing with the media included. But why should I be surprised? Favoritism has been a staple of the Bush Administration.

Anonymous said...

.I bought more ammo and gas today and hit the grocery outlet for some extreme buys.

*

Well when it gets tough ammo will be worth more than silver coin,

One many 100's army cans of 30-06 AP, 223, 45, 9mm, 306win, 306-win/mag does one need?

Anonymous said...

C'mon Buster. Marge. Tim. Send it along, I'll put your name up in lights! It'll be great!

*

Jeebus xmas dumb fucking cunt HOMEE, ya got 400 posts last week, randomly pic one to be your fucking main post for the following, like someone here said, and I agree, you weekly only has to be five lines, but please don't let it be pussy shit about daily-kos taking over the world.

I agree you got this fucking boner that your weekly has to be 100 pages, with vid's and still's, why? why? just 5 lines about your stinky cunt is all we need, and maybe a little bit about Johnson and Abernethy cunt, and a picture of Hollern's prostrate.

Anonymous said...

Populism at it's finest. And the reason they are going to try to shut the internet down, like is stated in PNAC's seminal paper.

*

Gingrich 'populism' the fucking 'progressives' were nancy fucking PELOSI, and she is NOW an OR-EO, or a OR-BITCH-EO.

The DEM's voted for the bailout 3/4, and the PUG's 1/4, so you pic who fucking supported the FUCKING bailout, the PUSSY once again trys to re-write history while the ink is still wet.

The fucking FACT is OR-BUSH-EO put all his political capital on this bailout and lost.

A BIG fucking opening for McSame!!!!

Anonymous said...

PUSSY,

All this is playing into McSame hand, and OR-BUSH-EO ( OH-BOMB-EO ) aka OH-BOMB-BA, was 100% sucking on BUSH's cock on the whole deal. In the past ten years a whopping $2B from wall-st and most to DEM's, think HRC, and think wall-st, and tort-law, same with OR-BUSH-EO.

When the names come out in the coming days who vote YES & NO, the YES will be FUCKED.

Like timmy says the PUG's ( now GOP ), are playing CHESS, while OR-BUSH-EO is playing with BUSH's dick.

I FUCKING wish the 'PROGRESSIVES' counted, but this is quite common on the continuum of politics the fact is the FAR right, and the FAR LEFT have MORE in common than the center, and OR-BUSH-EO ( BUSH/OBAMA BAILOUT ) was 100% center wall-street payoff.

Marge said...

Bruce, I didn't say you were dumb or stubborn. Are you thinking about next Sundays's post? :)

Anonymous said...

FUCKING PUSSY, so who is your leader?

It ain't PELOSI? It ain't OR-BUSH-EO, and it ain't Reid.

On the other hand for the GOP, they got clearly Shelby, Gingrich, and flexible McSame.

OR-BUSH-EO has exhausted his political capital by teaming with the fucking sub 20% popular SHRUB-TWISTED, and BET wrong.

Anonymous said...

HOMER,

SO we're supposed to fucking send email to bendbubble2@gmail.com, what are you now fucking collecting email for you handlers?

Just fucking take comments here, or have someone post something that is useful for YOUR agenda, and make it the next blog.

There are a lot of people that aren't going to email you directly.

Anonymous said...

As a friend said last night, we’ve become a banana republic with nukes.
-- Paul Krugman

*

HBM,

Excuuuuuuuse me but 30 years special forces were calling the USA a 3rd world country with nukes, we were always a penal colony with nukes,

There was a very short time probably 1945-1972 that the US had nuke to the world's head, but since 1980 the dollar is down. Today the US is once again the world largest penal colony, albeit with nukes.

Marge said...

C'mon Buster. Marge. Tim. Send it along, I'll put your name up in lights! It'll be great!

Homer, it can't be that hard to just tell us to fuck off on Sunday morning and they will just keep on talkin, like yesterday.
If, I were to write a rant it would be about "gettin along in the days to come". You all know Beans, bullets, booze and Bunkers. Or Butter:). Please don't disparage the idea of making money on purchasing staples. My bank nor investment co. can pay me more than 3.5 % safely. Why no buy goodies that you enjoy consuming for 30% less if you watch the ads? It makes lots of sense and money.

Anonymous said...

A lot of people GOT FUCKED today, a lot of Jews bought into the myth that because today was a the begin of a long holiday they would get the bail-out, and went long.

Then there was BUFFET who said he bought those $5B GS options because the bail-out was a done-deal.

Goes to fucking show you that Malcolm X was RIGHT, never give whitey the credit of running the world, he's a FUCK-UP 24/7.

A TON of FUCKING people lost their ass today long on this done-deal.

Tonight was PUB night what did I hear? Folks are down -50% average on their life-time 401k's, and not to happy to talk about the WHOLE FUCKING issue.

bruce said...

Buster, go here and you can see the top five contributors to Obama and McCain: http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/contriball.php?cycle=2008

Note that McCain's top five is all banks, while Obama's is three banks and two university's.

Yes, they all gave way more to the smart guy.

Anonymous said...

ANGRY NIGGER's NIX OR-BOMB-EO BAILOUT ...

How Voter Fury Stopped Bailout
Left-Right Combo By Opponents Put Plan on the Ropes
By STEPHEN POWER and GARY FIELDS

The defeat in Congress of a proposed $700 billion economic-rescue package followed an intense outpouring of voter anger, fanned by politicians, interest groups and media on the left and right, that overwhelmed calls from the president and top lawmakers to pass the deal.

Voters opposed to the deal deluged Capitol Hill with letters, emails, phone calls and faxes over the past week. Some 23,000 signatures were collected over two days by Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont Independent, calling for a five-year, 10% surtax on the wealthiest Americans to help fund the bailout. Some prominent conservatives and bloggers criticized the deal as an unwarranted intervention in the free market.
[Fierce resistance from both ends of the political spectrum drove lawmakers to vote against the economic-rescue plan.] Getty Images

Fierce resistance from both ends of the political spectrum drove lawmakers to vote against the economic-rescue plan.

"The vast majority of my voters looked at this as a bailout for Wall Street," said Rep. Darrell Issa of California, one of the most outspoken Republican critics of the proposal.

On his Web site in recent days, Rep. Issa has posted letters and emails from some of the more than 2,000 constituents he said had contacted him about the proposal, including one from "Greg" in Temecula, Calif., who called the proposal "poorly thought out and rushed to the floor."

"I am 45 and a husband and father of 4. I am outraged and appalled at the arrogance of my President and the lack of regard for what is right," the message said.

Among prominent conservatives who publicly assailed the administration's proposal in recent days was former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich. But Mr. Gingrich said in a statement posted on his Web site Monday that he would "reluctantly and sadly" vote for the proposal if he were still in office.

"This bill is not the best proposal for solving the housing crisis. It is not even a good proposal for solving the crisis," the statement said. "However, it is the only proposal Secretary [Henry] Paulson would support, and his support was essential in this setting."

Mr. Gingrich then capped his tepid endorsement with a call for Mr. Paulson's resignation, saying that "having a former chairman of Goldman Sachs preside over disbursing hundreds of billions of dollars to Wall Street is a terrible concept and inevitably will lead to crony capitalism and the appearance of -- if not the actual existence of -- corruption."

The proposal's defeat was also cheered on by a number of blogs that in recent days have posted links to lawmakers' telephone and fax numbers and urged citizens to oppose the plan. They included stopthehousingbailout.com, a Web site organized by a 37-year-old Los Angeles attorney named Morgan Ward Doran, and globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com, run by Mike Shedlock, an investment adviser at SitkaPacific Capital Management. Mr. Shedlock said in an interview Monday that his site had received 1.7 million page hits this month, which he said was half a million more than normal.

On his Web site, Mr. Shedlock has derided the proposed rescue as "a rush to judgment" that would benefit "high-flying financiers who chased big profits through reckless investments," and as "a complete waste of $700 billion."

"A number of people emailed me to say this was the first time that they've written, faxed or phoned their member of Congress," said Mr. Shedlock, a 55-year-old resident of Prairie Grove, Ill. "Were going to phone and fax every member of Congress who voted against this to thank them. ... Everyone who voted to pass this bill, we're going to actively organize to oust them."

Members of the Congressional Black Caucus felt pressure from opposition to the package that was mounted by some prominent African-American radio personalities, who objected because it failed to address their listeners' everyday concerns, such as health-care costs. Among members of the caucus who voted against the deal were Democrats John Lewis of Georgia, John Conyers of Michigan and Jesse Jackson Jr. of Illinois.

Bev Smith, a nationally syndicated talk-show host on American Urban Radio Networks, said the Congressional Black Caucus members might have been influenced in part by a national campaign she organized, along with other radio hosts, calling for their audiences to contact members and voice their opposition to the plan.

When the bailout proposal was announced, she brought on economists and other financial experts to discuss the financial problems it ostensibly would solve. "Last week, I asked my audience to call their legislators and tell them if they vote for this without thorough investigation and without knowing the impact, we're going to kick their butts out of Washington, D.C. My audience flooded the Capitol Hill lines," she said.

The feelings were evident on blogs and Web posts. One contributor to blackamericaweb.com urged others to contact their representatives and senators by email and to "Tell them to vote NO on the bailout. This is the biggest robbery of the US in the history of this nation."

Anonymous said...

FUCK YOU PUSSY, I hate both party's, but since 1990 $2B was given to the party's by the banks on wall st, and mostly to DEM's.

LIKE team shrub, they be texas oil-men, and HRC that be NY lawfirms, and fucking OR-BOMB-EO, that be tort-law, insurance and banking.

FUCK YOU PUSSY the DEM's are the biggest HO's in the picture, which is WHY the DEM's voted in MAJORITY for the bailout.

Anonymous said...

PUSSY before your man-wife puts you to bed, have her get you some milk & cookies and read this to you.

*

The politics of the bill

29 Sep 2008 10:46 pm
There is no glory to go around here. Assume, arguendo, that most people in the House believed both that the bill would be passed, and that anyone who voted for it would suffer politically, except maybe in New York.

Pelosi screwed up royally. She is the Democratic Tom DeLay. Newt Gingrich was an ideologue, but Tom DeLay was simply a partisan, most keenly interested in maximizing his party's political power. Pelosi cut a deal in which, as far as I can tell, every single Republican in a safe seat had to vote yes so that the Democrats could maximize their no votes. Given that the Republican caucus is pretty much in open revolt, this was beyond moronic. She then spent a week openly and repeatedly blaming the Republicans and the Bush administration for the current crisis. The way she set things up, it was "Heads I win, tails you lose": vote for the deal and I'll paint you as heartless reactionaries bailing out your fat cat friends. If you're going to do that, you'd better make sure you have some goddamn margin for error in your own party. She didn't. Then she got up and delivered yet another speech blaming the Republicans for the bailout deal she was about to pass.

Being in power means that you get to give your party special favors on many occasions--but it also means that you, yes you, have the ultimate responsibility for getting things done. She didn't particularly try to bring her party in line, and so of course as soon as a few Republicans defected, hers stampeded. The ultimate blame for this failure has to be laid at her feet.

That doesn't excuse the Republicans; I've already expressed my opinion of their conduct. If they do not understand that there are some things more important than reelection, they do not deserve to be in Congress. I'm not sure they deserve to be let loose in society. But Pelosi is the one who was vested with the ultimate responsibility for shaping the legislative process in the House. She not only dropped the ball; she picked it up and drop kicked it through her own goal.

Marge said...

Anonymous said...
A lot of people GOT FUCKED today, a lot of Jews bought into the myth that because today was a the begin of a long holiday they would get the bail-out, and went long.


Would you mind awfully much taking a single identity so that we know which anon is speaking? Dude, get a set ya know?

Anonymous said...

Here's one for the pussy, a fund with 100% protection, means you can go to a bendbb party without a condom, and be ok, except for every dollar you put in you get a penny back. 100%, ...

*

Lehman's `100% Principal Protection' Means Pennies for Notes

By Bradley Keoun
Enlarge Image/Details

Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- A brochure pitching $1.84 million of notes sold by Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in August, a month before the firm filed for bankruptcy, promised ``100 percent principal protection.''

Buyers had ``uncapped appreciation potential'' pegged to gains in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, the brochure said. In the worst case, they would get back their $1,000-per-note investment in three years. Only the last in a list of 15 risk factors mentioned the biggest danger: ``An investment in the notes will be subject to the credit risk of Lehman Brothers.''

hbm said...

Would you mind awfully much taking a single identity so that we know which anon is speaking? Dude, get a set ya know?

+


Huh?

Has marge gone all PUSSY on us?

Maybe hbm posing as marge? (wait, I'm hbm. I knew that, ... really, I knew that!)

Maybe that is Butter posing as marge baiting us to reveal our IDs so he can payback his master?

Be afraid... very afraid.

bruce said...

Re: The way she set things up, it was "Heads I win, tails you lose"...

Pretty sweet, and the Dems got covered in a no-win situation.

This thing was running better than 2-to-1 against in Kos, and about 50-to-1 against in Redstate. Manahattan and San Fran were the only places that wanted it.

bruce said...

Re: "The vast majority of my voters looked at this as a bailout for Wall Street," said Rep. Darrell Issa of California

One of the few times in my life when I agreed with that troglodyte. Shows you jow much this bailout was despised.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

U.S. home prices down 16.3% in past year, Case-Shiller says

By Rex Nutting
Last update: 9:24 a.m. EDT Sept. 30, 2008

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities fell 0.9% in July and were down 16.3% in the past year, according to the Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday by Standard & Poor's. In the smaller sample of 10 cities, prices fell 1.1% in July and 17.5% in the past year. Prices fell in 13 cities in July, led by a 2.8% drop in Las Vegas and a 2.7% decline in Phoenix. Prices have fallen in all 20 cities in the past year. "There are signs of a slowdown in the rate of decline across the metro areas, but no evidence of a bottom" said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And the LIB's have to live with the Bizarro World concept that THEY wanted to bailout Wall St BILLIONAIRES, while the RePug's voted that abomination down.

I don't know how you guys can possibly spin THAT with your World-View that you are populist, for-the-little-guy, etc. This lib vote stinks of hyper-elitism to me.

But it was probably the most "split" vote I've ever seen. Usually, they predictably go down party lines ~98%... but this thing split every which way.

I hope that it fails again. I will lose quite a bit, but I'll survive. I want some overpaid asshole Wall Streeters to go down HARD.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

"There are signs of a slowdown in the rate of decline across the metro areas, but no evidence of a bottom" said David M. Blitzer...

I'm still sticking with a 2012 bottom for the US, and a 2014 bottom for Bend. That's nominal. Inflation-adjusted bottoms will be near 2020's...

Anonymous said...

ne of the few times in my life when I agreed with that troglodyte. Shows you jow much this bailout was despised.

-BP

*

SHOWS how much PEOLOSI and her DEM's are out of touch of the 'people'.

Shows like the fucking war that pelosi is a bitch'

"Impeachment is OFF the table" - Pelosi

Two years ago Pelosi got where she is today by promising to end the war, and to impeach BUSH, she did neither, to boot, she PUSHED the bailout.

Anonymous said...

END OF THE WORLD BUSH-SHIT

Look at the stock market this AM, up,

and lastnight the EU and ASIAN wasn't that low.

This is NOT the end of the world, just the end of PAULSON&BUSH.

Anonymous said...

Maybe that is Butter posing as marge baiting us to reveal our IDs so he can payback his master?

Be afraid... very afraid.

*

I always thought that 'homers' outing was a setup, and the pussy begging for people to talk to Anne Saxer of the big-zero.

Now homer begging people to EMAIL him at bendbubble2@gmail.com

At the very least they got HOMER by the balls now, and he's try to give them what they want in turn for NOT turning him inside out.

Anonymous said...

Like the 'nofollow' thing, homer could have removed this shit, nobody see's this site except those that know about it, this is a kluster-fuck.

Homer could have fixed the nofollow, but NO, ... he has his madness.

100% just like dunc, I have always thought they be the same.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Like the 'nofollow' thing, homer could have removed this shit, nobody see's this site except those that know about it, this is a kluster-fuck.

Homer could have fixed the nofollow, but NO, ... he has his madness.

100% just like dunc, I have always thought they be the same.


Dude, seek help. Schizoid embolism's can be dangerous...

hbm said...

I hope that it fails again. I will lose quite a bit, but I'll survive. I want some overpaid asshole Wall Streeters to go down HARD.

So that's what this is all about -- resentment of people who you think make too much money and revenge against them for making too much money?

I have no love or admiration for the sleazeballs who helped get us into this mess either, but we have to look at the consequences of allowing bank failures on a massive scale and the freeze-up of credit nationwide and globally. A hell of a lot of people are going to be hurt by Great Depression II. It's a high price to pay for momentarily experiencing a little thrill of schadenfreude.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

A hell of a lot of people are going to be hurt by Great Depression II.

No. A lot of IRRATIONALLY RICH BASTARDS are going down hard because of their OWN GREED. I could give a fuck about these ethic-less bastards.

Are there a lot in this town? Hell yes, this is meth-addled, Kool-Aid quaffing, Greedy Cali-Banger CENTRAL. Lots of locals who jumped on the bandwagon can, will, and SHOULD go down. What? You believe in SOCIALIZING ALL LOSSES? No. If you are stupid, greedy, or what-have-you, you should LOSE.

I do NOT want to pay an inflated amount for my next HOUSE to save the motherfuckers who made it too expensive to begin with. FUCK THEM.

LavaBear said...

>>>So that's what this is all about -- resentment of people who you think make too much money and revenge against them for making too much money?

Not really resentment. Wall Street and the banks we are trying so hard to bailout have had a year plus to do something/anything with their balance sheets. What we keep finding out is they aren't doing a thing besides hiding the crap. And our solution is what? Give them $700 billion so they can hide it on the governments balance sheet. All so they can loan more money to you and me. Great....just what every American needs: another loan to add to their maxed out credit cards. Just where the fuck does it all end?

We are already in a severe recession and the bailout won't stop it. Won't do a fucking thing. Why not save that $700 billion and spend it on something that adds value/jobs in the world. Buying bad debt adds nothing to the equation.

LavaBear said...

And yeah, what he said...FUCK THEM.

LavaBear said...

I don't know how many times in the past two days I've heard "We have to pass this so people can get car loans and student loans.....this is for the people." It makes me want to shove the shit sandwich straight down their throats. What in the world ever became of SAVING THE MONEY TO BUY A CAR or SEND YOU KIDS TO COLLEGE? Can't fucking save money, need credit, want more debt. Just so fucking stupid.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And dude, what's happening now is A Good Thing. We are unwinding 30 years of a Fantasy. This country has been living outside it's means for decades. This is our Minsky Moment.

There's NO BAILOUT that will CURE this. Delay? Maybe. But not cure. This thing is the unwinding of lifestyles that never had any financial basis in reality.

Yes, it will affect EVERYONE. As well it should. This is The Great Deleveraging of our Lives. This is why I said AD NAUSEUM, "All you who are benefiting so magnificently now, will someday WISH this NEVER HAPPENED".

I'm not CAUSING THIS. I'm watching as OTHERS who acted irresponsibly are getting their comeuppance. And I'm supposed to feel BAD for them? Uhhhhh, no.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

It's a high price to pay for momentarily experiencing a little thrill of schadenfreude.

Ain't gonna be momentary, dude.

And my "schadenfruede" ain't The Cause. My glee didn't Get This Party Started. WARNINGS have POURED out of this blog for almost 2 YEARS about the catastrophic outcome of this thing. And I caught much RE-fueled FLAK for it.

People are going down HARD because of their own ACTIONS, not my ex-POST glee. My "schadenfruede" DID NOT BUILD THE PLAZA. It did not push it into foreclosure. It did not push RE values down for 2 years.

I've had NOTHING whatever to do with this implosion. I warned of the financial tsunami that would result. For TWO YEARS.

You hear that Mr. Anderson?... That is the sound of inevitability.. . It is the sound of your death... Goodbye, Mr. Anderson.

Anonymous said...

I'd be for the bailout if I thought it would fix the problem.

Seems like it would be like paying a few thousand to kill the insects in your house and then seeing ants all over your toast the next morning anyway.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

This is the most F-d up legislation ever, and reminds me why I am a Repug, for better or worse.

When the rubber met the road, RePug's VOTED THIS ABOMINATION DOWN. Lib's were STRONGLY FOR IT. I mean, WTF?

I thought you were supposed to be the party of the DOWNTRODDEN, The WEAK, The EXPLOITED? This bailout largely benefits ELITIST BILLIONAIRES, not a solitary SINGLE BLACK MOTHER WITH 12 KIDS FROM 19 DIFFERENT FATHERS will be saved from foreclosure. Not one.

The RePugs, be they LIARS, THIEVES, CON-ARTIST EXPLOITERS... they VOTED THIS THING DOWN.

This is why I ultimately loathe Lib's "principles": In the end, THEY ARE HYPOCRITICAL, PATHOLGICAL LIARS who are FAR MORE SELFISH & DELUDED than Repugs.

YOU guys voted thumbs up on this thing, not RePugs.

Simple question: hbm, Brucey, Dunc, et al, do you support the bailout, YES or NO. And why?

Anonymous said...

Case-Shiller index drops at fastest annual rate ever.

Anonymous said...

Bend Economy Board posts claim that Steve Dorn hanged self at RV & Marine store on 97. Rumor? True? Anyone find anything?

hbm said...

We are already in a severe recession and the bailout won't stop it.

Mo. But if we don't do something soon to unfreeze the credit markets we will experience something much worse than a severe recession.

What in the world ever became of SAVING THE MONEY TO BUY A CAR or SEND YOU KIDS TO COLLEGE?

Have you looked into college tuition rates lately? A working person/family can never save up that kind of money.

And my "schadenfreude" ain't The Cause. My glee didn't Get This Party Started. WARNINGS have POURED out of this blog for almost 2 YEARS about the catastrophic outcome of this thing. And I caught much RE-fueled FLAK for it.

So you want the economy to go down in flames so you can say "I told you so"? Okay, you told us so. Congratulations. You're a genius. But what do you stand to gain -- in rational, tangible terms -- from seeing the economy crash and burn? Or are you one of those who think this is a fake crisis? I don't think you are, seeing as how you've been warning about it, as you say, for years.

I thought you were supposed to be the party of the DOWNTRODDEN, The WEAK, The EXPLOITED? This bailout largely benefits ELITIST BILLIONAIRES, not a solitary SINGLE BLACK MOTHER WITH 12 KIDS FROM 19 DIFFERENT FATHERS will be saved from foreclosure. Not one.

What I'm seeing here -- not just from you but from everybody -- is a gross lack of understanding of how the national and global economies work. People just look at three words -- "Wall Street bailout" -- and say, "Well, fuck those sleazy cocksuckers." But with credit frozen, not only can't consumers get loans to buy cars and houses and flat-screen TVs, but businesses of all sizes can't get loans to start up, expand or even cover everyday operating expenses. And if you think this isn't going to hurt ordinary people -- even black mothers with 12 kids from 19 different fathers -- you're delusional.

Or you just don't give a fuck, which is probably the more likely explanation. You'd rather hang out here smirking and saying, "I told ya so, ya stupid greedy bastids."

I didn't like the bailout package the House defeated either, but something has to be done on a pretty urgent basis. The do-nothing, let-it-crash-and-burn option is not acceptable.

hbm said...

America Needs a New New Deal

This year happens to be the 75th anniversary of the New Deal, a revolution in governmental philosophy that began with the Emergency Banking Act of 1933. That first piece of New Deal legislation was a hurried response to the worst banking crisis in U.S. history--until now.

President Franklin Delano Roosevelt outlined the problem clearly in his first fireside chat, a week after taking office. "We had a bad banking situation," Roosevelt said. "Some of our bankers had shown themselves either incompetent or dishonest in the handling of people's funds. They had used the money entrusted to them in speculations and unwise loans . . . It was the government's job to straighten out this situation and do it as quickly as possible."

President Roosevelt's banking plan ended the panic. But it did much more than that. In Roosevelt's words, it "reorganized, simplified, and made more fair and just our monetary system."

Compare those aims and that achievement with what the Bush administration proposed. Having championed the free market, small government and deregulation for years, the administration asked taxpayers to assume the costs of Wall Street's poor investments--while allowing Wall Street to hold on to the good ones.


More: http://www.thenation.com/doc/20081013/kvh_schlosser

This is what I'm talking about. Obama should immediately begin promising a New New Deal for Americans. If he has the balls. I'm not sure about that. But if he did it he would have this election in the bag.

Anonymous said...

Dorn thread removed at Bend Economy Board. Must have been a garbage post. Nothing on google.

LavaBear said...

>>>Have you looked into college tuition rates lately? A working person/family can never save up that kind of money.

So throwing money at banks so they can make more loans is going to solve this problem how? I personally believe college tuition has itself been a bubble waiting to pop just like housing. As this world deleverages and deflation takes over prices will adjust to where they SHOULD be in terms of the price people can pay. Not the price they can borrow to pay.

I'm well aware of how the national and global enonomies USED to work. It's all about credit. I get that. I also think that shit has blown up and no matter what Paulson tosses at it, it's not going to stop the unwind. It may postpone it for a few months but this is more the law of gravity than anything. I'd rather save the cash because I do believe we really are gonna need it soon.

Anonymous said...

Homer, Then why don't you get off your lazy ass, and fix the 'nofollow' thing?

Anonymous said...

Hedge Funds will be hitting the 'CASH OUT' button

Posted September 30th, 2008

I think we all saw this coming, you can't have a 700 point drop in the DOW and not expect to lose a few clients. So in the nearly $2 trillion world of hedge funds how much will be cashed out ASAP? If you were that rich and had money there, wouldn't you want to hit the 'CASH OUT' button? Worse yet, what will this do to the market?

Here's the lowdown from CNBC.com, probably the best and only article we are willing to read from the know-it-all's copy/paste reporters that have been flip flopping all over the place this last week, but let's be fair, this article was 1st published by the NYTimes, so whatever:

Full Article Here - http://www.cnbc.com/id/26942431

First, the money rushed into hedge funds. Now, some fear, it could rush out.

Even as Washington reached a tentative agreement on Sunday over what may become the largest financial bailout in American history, new worries were building inside the nearly $2 trillion world of hedge funds. After years of explosive growth, losses are mounting — and so are concerns that some investors will head for the exits.

No one expects a wholesale flight from hedge funds. But even a modest outflow could reverberate through the financial markets. To pay back investors, some funds may be forced to dump investments at a time when the markets are already shaky.

The big worry is that a spate of hurried sales could unleash a vicious circle within the hedge fund industry, with the sales leading to more losses, and those losses leading to more withdrawals, and so on. A big test will come on Tuesday, when many funds are scheduled to accept withdrawal requests for the end of the year.

“Everybody’s watching for redemptions,” said James McKee, director of hedge fund research at Callan Associates, a consulting firm in San Francisco. “And there could be a cascading effect, where redemptions cause other redemptions.”

What happens at hedge funds, those loosely regulated private investment vehicles, matters to just about every investor in America. Hedge funds are not just for the rich anymore. Since 2002, the industry has roughly tripled in size, as pension funds, endowments and foundations piled in, hoping for market-beating returns.

Now, the heady returns of the industry’s glory days are over, at least for now. This is shaping up to be the industry’s worst year on record, with the average fund down nearly 10 percent so far, according to Hedge Fund Research. Famous traders like Steven A. Cohen, who runs SAC Capital Advisors, are losing money, and even Kenneth C. Griffin, the head of Citadel Investment Group, is down in one of his funds.

And they are the lucky ones. A growing number of hedge funds are closing down. About 350 were liquidated in the first half of the year. While hedge funds come and go all the time, if the trend continues, the number of closures would be up 24 percent this year from 2007.

Anonymous said...

FUCK YOU HBM,

You are the PROBLEM, your retired of the BULL, member of the 4th estate of Bend.

Your on a fucking retirement program, and NOW that BITCH ain't worth shit.

You ASS-U-ME-D that if KKR ran your pension fund, that you wouldn't get fucked, NOW YOU BE fucked.

Your solution? The trickle down bail-out fund. Guess what, its not going to fix the bitch.

The problem is SIV's, CREDIT-SWAPS, DERIVATIVES, the MTG-BOND is just the TIP of the fucking iceberg.

YOUR PENSION is FUCKED, the BULL FUCKED YOU, and NOW NOBODY is going to bail your sorry ass out.

You ASSUMED you could fuck people your whole life, while wrapping the 'liberal' flag around your 4th estate ass, and now your broke.

Nothing worse and pathetic than a starving liberal without a PIG with gun to back him up.

Anonymous said...

President Franklin Delano Roosevelt outlined the problem clearly in his first fireside chat, a week after taking office. "We had a bad banking situation," Roosevelt said on TV in 1932. - JOE BIDEN

*

Had PALIN SAID STUPID SHIT LIKE THIS people would have called her an idiot, now you got HBM repeating this fucking shit.

WHO GIVES a fuck what FDR said 75 years ago? Bush does talks weekly too, and never says SHIT.

Time, like HOMER said today, 2012, and 2014 for Bend, before we see bottom. That's fucking six years of fucking austerity.

Anonymous said...

Two weeks ago BUSH, McCAIN, and OR-BUSH-EO all denied the economy was in the shits.

The recession started in May of 2007.

Nobody in modern high-tech office can afford to tell the truth, hell even Obama & McCain the other night didn't tell the truth on anything for fear of offending the 'middle undecided voter'.

The best part of depression-2 is that folks are going to have to choose a position, the PUSSY's will fucking STARVE.

bruce said...

Re: Roosevelt New Deal

This is exactly what we need--more regulation. The unregulated financial market, especially the derivatives.

The wizards on Wall St., in collusion with dergulators like Phil Gramm, have built a market of paper that is now larger than the entire world GDP of actual goods. This paper is based on debt-backed securities. It is a bubble far, far larger than just the housing market, as it included everything from credit card debt to commercial debt, all "securitized" and sold back and forth between banks and other financial institutions, completely unregulated thanks to the CFMA of 2000.

This must be stopped, or the current financial crisis will be unending.

And, yes HBM, there is going to be real pain. But most will hit the investment banks, hedge funds and most aggressive commercial banks and money market funds that have trillions of this toxic crap.

And the banks have no idea what each other holds, because it is unregulated and totally opaque. This is the reason for the credit squeeze, not a lack of liquidity. And $700B will be gone faster than you can say Christmas.

The lowflyers are sitting OK, not great, but OK. We'll muck our way through. But deflating the biggest bubble in history isn't going to get easier by artificially extending it with no regulation of the root cause.

Anonymous said...

Overnight borrowing by Money-Markets raises to 11%, "NOW HOW ARE THEY GOING TO HANDLE THE RUN's?????"

***

Money market borrowing costs soar
Tue Sep 30, 2008 9:12am EDT


By Jamie McGeever and Kirsten Donovan

LONDON (Reuters) - The cost of borrowing overnight dollars on global money markets soared on Tuesday despite central banks pumping billions into the banking system to prevent it seizing up further after U.S. lawmakers' rejection of a $700 billion financial rescue bill panicked markets.

The scramble for cash as banks sought to square their books over the end of the quarter saw the European Central Bank lend $30 billion dollars overnight at a huge rate of 11 percent -- more than five times the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target rate -- and call for bids for an additional $50 billion.

Meanwhile, the London interbank offered rate (Libor) for overnight dollars jumped by a record 430 basis points to 6.87 percent, the highest in at least 7-1/2 years.

After the U.S. House of Representatives late on Monday rejected the $700 billion rescue package and sent Wall Street shares plunging, fears of further meltdown in Europe grew.

But in part buoyed by the Irish government's decision to guarantee all bank deposits and speculation central banks could cut interest rates in concert soon, a collapse of European equities failed to materialize.

European shares erased initial losses to trade largely flat on the day and U.S. stock futures pointed to a higher opening on Wall Street.

"Money markets are more of a problem than stock markets. Perceived counterparty credit risk ... probably won't go away for a while," said Everett Brown, strategist at IDEAGlobal.

He said interbank rates and premia over government borrowing costs and expected policy rates -- key gauges of financial market stress and investor risk aversion -- should come down from historically high levels in the coming sessions.

bruce said...

Re: The problem is SIV's, CREDIT-SWAPS, DERIVATIVES

Buster, you're right, and you're on the same page as HBM in calling for real regulation of it.

As far as pussy's starving--by definition, don't they know how to grow or kill their own food? Maybe coast pussies can't kill animals, but I sure as hell can. Got my first gun at about 10. Was just talking to Trudy about picking up a new rifle, maybe a .270 or a 30-06, last night. Something that I can take either deer or elk with, depending on the bullet. At a gun show, of course.

Anonymous said...

The wizards on Wall St., in collusion with dergulators like Phil Gramm, have built a market of paper that is now larger than the entire world GDP of actual goods.

*

This shit goes back to NIXON pussy, its goes back to the 1972 going off the gold standard.

That where it all goes back to, the problem is YOUR POLITICIANS have been getting several billion per decade from the banks to go along, and now we have a 200X leverage, the great depression bubble had a 10X de-leveraging.

Today we got 200X de-leveraging, and its all going down to actual worth.

What will come out of this?? Certainly a NEW currency and a new gold standard.

Regarding FDR, your DEM party is NOT the solution, it is the problem.

There will be many new partys by 2012, there is NO way in hell the DEM or PUG will survive this.

There is NO DEM leader in site, OR-BUSH-EO is MORE of the same, like PELOSI.

The best we can hope for is DeFazio on the left, and Gingrich on the right, and out of those two diametrically opposite passions will be new ideas.

CLINTON,OR-BUSH-EO,BUSH,CAIN, ... all the McSAME. ALL OWNED BY LAWYERS&BANKS.

Anonymous said...

Re: The problem is SIV's, CREDIT-SWAPS, DERIVATIVES

Buster, you're right, and you're on the same page as HBM in calling for real regulation of it.

*

Yes, but I see this GRAHAM shit, being someone who has been writing about this shit since the mid 1970's, this shit AIN'T new, hell LYNDON LaROUCHE was foaming at the mouth on this SHIT in the 70's, GOLD-WATER was foaming at the mouth on this shit.

It's now been 30+ years of fucking denial, now we're 200X and the de-leveraging has started, and what will be left??

It's PHYSICS, god bless physics, conservation of mass, and energy.

What goes up comes down, and we're going to 'mark to market' whether the best lobbyists money can BUY want to or NOT.

Out of this will come politicians who talk like Ron Paul, Soro's, Jim Rogers, DeFazio, ... There are many people who know what the fuck is going on.

MTG-MBO's, CDO's, are just a minute tip of the ice-berg, the de-leveraging is around $260 Trillion dollars, this will go down to less than $5 trillion 'mark to market'.

There aren't enough liars in DC to fix this, its CIVIL-WAR in the US, its every state for themselves.

Anonymous said...

Maybe coast pussies can't kill animals, but I sure as hell can. Got my first gun at about 10. Was just talking to Trudy about picking up a new rifle, maybe a .270 or a 30-06, last night.

*

1.) Please pussy don't harm your self, life is too precious.

2.) There aren't enough dear pussy, and marge shoots poachers.

Fuck rifles, buy boxes of ammo like 223, or 45acp, and or 308win, and keep them in sealed ammo boxes, good shells will trade for a bag of grocerys, the first thing the government will do post xmas is declare martial law, and ban retail ammo sales.

What has marge been saying? Booze, bullets, beans, bunkers; lots of canned food has good trade value, maybe even a good portable water filter. Keep your bikes maintained,

Probably the only practical purpose of firearms will be home security.

hbm said...

Your on a fucking retirement program, and NOW that BITCH ain't worth shit.

This is a prime example of what I was talking about -- a dumb fucker rejoicing in the bad fortune of others because he's been too dumb and/or lazy to accumulate any nest egg for himself other than his old pickup, his 19 dogs and the broken refrigerator sitting on the front porch.

HOWEVER ...

I have no retirement program from The BULL. There was a profit-sharing program and I cashed out when I left back in 1992. The only retirement funds I have are my own investments, and fortunately I have gotten almost completely out of equity positions over the past several years. So I'm not as fucked as you think, except insofar as we are all going to be fucked when the USA turns into a goddam banana republic.

And in conclusion, sir, you are an ignorant flaming asshole. With all due respect.

Anonymous said...

But deflating the biggest bubble in history isn't going to get easier by artificially extending it with no regulation of the root cause.

*

Once it starts FDIC will be out of money in days,

Money Markets, hedge-funds, are all being sold.

WAMU got wiped out in a few days with 16BILLION in redemptions.

FDIC now has $42Billion on hand, that's just three weeks worth of WAMU.

The number of banks that can buy failing is now running low, FDIC is running out of options.

Hedge-Funds, Money-Market, ... its all having bank-runs, and getting the CASH to pay back depositors is too fucking expensive.

In a few weeks BUSH can declare martial-law, and create a 'bank holiday' and blame the bail-out failure.

Anonymous said...

Heard the Dorn thing again. What's the story?

hbm said...

Two weeks ago BUSH, McCAIN, and OR-BUSH-EO all denied the economy was in the shits.

Obama didn't deny it. He's been warning about the consequences of deregulation for a long time.

Anonymous said...

I have no retirement program from The BULL. There was a profit-sharing program and I cashed out when I left back in 1992. The only retirement funds I have are my own investments, and fortunately I have gotten almost completely out of equity positions over the past several years. So I'm not as fucked as you think, except insofar as we are all going to be fucked when the USA turns into a goddam banana republic.


*

OK, so HBM has no pension to lose, and thus he is a kept-man, under the nose of an earning man-wife.

FUCK YOU HBM, we're NOT fucking laughing at losers fucking our country, I have been seeing this THEFT forever, like YOUR BITCH HOLLERN not paying actual SDC cost, all you bitches wanted something for nothing.

So HBM ain't got a pension to lose, does that mean you live off social security? We're to infer he made his own investments, will that be fucked, I hop you got it all now in T-BILL's or equiv.

hbm said...

Maybe coast pussies can't kill animals, but I sure as hell can. Got my first gun at about 10. Was just talking to Trudy about picking up a new rifle, maybe a .270 or a 30-06, last night.

Asshole thinks we're gonna go back to a hunter-gatherer economy. Lotsa luck with that.

Anonymous said...

And in conclusion, sir, you are an ignorant flaming asshole. With all due respect.

This is not news. It's like saying the sky is blue.

Anonymous said...

Obama didn't deny it. He's been warning about the consequences of deregulation for a long time.

*

FUCK YOU, I watched the DEBATE, he said the same thing as mcCain wrt the economy.

OR-BUSH-EO & Mc$ain are McSame.

What makes OR-BUSH-EO worse is that bitch PELOSI, great west coast HO for SF banks.

The DEM party is finished. Sure OR-BUSH-EO will win, but it will be a hollow fucking win, OR-BUSH-EO will sit over the worst fucking economy is US history, and will get all the fucking blame.

Anonymous said...

FUCK YOU, I watched the DEBATE, he said the same thing as mcCain wrt the economy.

But did you LISTEN and COMPREHEND what was said at the debate?

Anonymous said...

This is not news. It's like saying the sky is blue.

*

The sky is blue because of solar diffusion of light.

The story about derivatives & credit-swap-defaults is NOT new, its 30+ years old.

The DEM's setup the racket post Nixon.

If they were going to do an FDR they should have done it in the 1970's.

The pug's have always wanted to bankrupt the USA, and thus are getting exactly what they have wished for, which means that all medicare, and social security can be shit-canned.

The dem's just wanted power, and did what the banks told them to do.

Everyone has been a complete fucking idiot since 1972.

hbm said...

But deflating the biggest bubble in history isn't going to get easier by artificially extending it with no regulation of the root cause.

Just as in 1933 we need action NOW to unfreeze the credit market, THEN implement tough regulations and measures to help working people. I recommend you read the Nation piece I posted a link to earlier.

We probably will have to wait for a new president and Congress to take office in January. Fortunately we don't have to wait as long as people did in the previous Great Depression, when Hoover sat with his thumb up his ass for three years waiting for The Magical Market to do its magical thing. Hoover was a smart man and a good man but he was blinded by dogma, as dogmatists of the left and right both tend to be.

Anonymous said...

Asshole thinks we're gonna go back to a hunter-gatherer economy. Lotsa luck with that.

*

Here we have hbm-pussy, calling bp-pussy an 'asshole'. What happened to pussy-pussy respect?

All is going to shit, well its tuesday, ...

Can't we all shit suck each others cock and get along??

bruce said...

Buster, my favorite gonzo lib(ertarian)

Gramm passed the two key pieces of deregulation, the repeal of the FDR-era Glass-Steagal Act and the under-the-cover-of-secrecy CFMA of 2000. These first allowed insurance companies, investment banks and commercial banks to be one and second created the legal right for the derivatives to be created and to be traded among financial institutions in a totally unregulated, opaque market.

This opacity is the real cause of the "credit freeze". The banks don't know what toxic waste each other is holding, but they know their shit stinks and so won't trust anyone else.

The solution is to bring it out into the sunlight. Just like a lot of solutions--sunlight is a great disinfectant.

What truly pisses me off is the derivative market as recently as three years ago was still seen as a good thing. Use this testimony to the Federal Reserve Board in Sept. 2005 to sway anyone who thinks that the banks should take care of their own stinking piles of dung:

The Federal Reserve Board believes that the CFMA has unquestionably been a successful piece of legislation. Most important, as recommended by the President's Working Group on Financial Markets in its 1999 report, it excluded transactions between institutions and other eligible counterparties in over-the-counter financial derivatives and foreign currency from regulation under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA)...Such transactions are not readily susceptible to manipulation and eligible counterparties can and should be expected to protect themselves against fraud and counterparty credit losses...Together, these provisions of the CFMA have made our financial system and our economy more flexible and resilient by facilitating the transfer and dispersion of risk.

As I noted in my Dkos diary on this subject: Obviously, in light of the events of the last twelve months, this testimony is complete and utter bullshit.

The banks fucked themselves, they don't know what toxic shit each other owns, they want us taxpayers to take it off their balance sheets and are threatening to break our balls with a credit squeeze if we don't.

Fuck them.

And I'm glad most of our Oregon Reps agreed. I plan on having a chat with Hooley and Walden staffers today about their votes.

Walden 202-225-6730
Hooley (202) 225-5711

Of course Hooley is retiring, so she isn't feeling too much pressure. And Walden is a lock, so he voted with his masters. But a little logical yelling can do wonders for the soul.

Anonymous said...

Just as in 1933 we need action NOW to unfreeze the credit market,

*

HBM, read the SOROS article I posted last week, he tells how to do it,

Trouble is the problem is confidence, and nobody has confidence.

The system must 'mark to market', but with $280 Trillion in toxic paper, that needs to be marked to market, NOTHING but 10-20 years is going to fix the confidence problem.

Like I have been saying since day-one here, expect a HUGE-FUCKING war by 2018.

Anonymous said...

Gramm passed the two key pieces of deregulation, the repeal of the FDR-era Glass-Steagal Act and the under-the-cover-of-secrecy CFMA of 2000.

*

I know pussy, but that is only 10-20 TRILLION of new toxic paper since 2000, the REAL fucking problem, the real fucking iceberg is the $240 trillion derivative&cds paper that has no value. The post 2000 Graham shit was just the proverbial straw that broke the camels back.

Anonymous said...

FDR-era Glass-Steagal Act and the under-the-cover-of-secrecy CFMA of 2000.

*

Blessed by DEM Clinton.

Anonymous said...

boats and rvs

Tough times. People need to get help.

hbm said...

Fuck you with that kept man shit.

I worked hard to get my man wife.

Go find your own, you envious bastard, and screw all you Fucking Repug trolls.

Anonymous said...

You seem to have a strong fear of trolls. Are you a billy goat?

Anonymous said...

Just as in 1933 we need action NOW to unfreeze the credit market, THEN implement tough regulations and measures to help working people.
*

Read McElvaine the "great depression" the best book on how they fucking fixed it, and who caused it.

Note that even by 1939, and 1942 things were still a fucking mess, it was ONLY WWII that pulled it out of the morass.

We had to create war-bonds just to finance the war, ... which is why since day-one I have called OBAMA OR-BOMB-EO, he's going to be our WAR-PREZ, and well be asking people to buy war-bonds, ... DRAFT, ..

hbm said...

Here we have hbm-pussy, calling bp-pussy an 'asshole'. What happened to pussy-pussy respect?


BPussy is a carpet bagger pussy from Utah.

I have been king pussy in this town for decades! I am not going to give up my crown to some cock sucker new comer pussy like BP.

Anonymous said...

Makes sense that the RV guy off'd himself, we know he was hurting months ago, with fall, the season is over.

Folks are no longer buying boats or RV's.


We have to find a developer connection, you know this guy had to be buying trailer-parks and converting them to STD's.

bruce said...

Re: I know pussy, but that is only 10-20 TRILLION of new toxic paper since 2000

No, more like $70 trillion. Where are you getting $240 trillion?

Re: Blessed by Clinton

Both bills were. Clinton and Bush are real tight, you know.

I was dropping off a bunch of boxes at the post office yesterday and got buttonholed by a fundie from LaPine who though our new little Jack Russell was cute (she is, ridiculously so--not just a girl magnet, a goddamn people magnet. I'm going to take her canvassing for Merkley with me.) Anyway the guy gave me this card about prophecies and told me how Barack means lightening in Hebrew and that he is going to drop the bomb. He also insinuated Obama was muslim, so I'm not sure who he thought the bomb would be dropped on, Iran or Israel. He pressed me to read Hebrews 11:32, which I did-it puts Barack into the company of Samson and Gideon, who are good guys IIRC.

But then he said something that struck me as so implausible it might be true: that Palin was just a red herring, and she is so stupid that McCain is going to dump her for Hillary.

Didn't really know what to say to that one. Just nodded my head.

Anonymous said...

The Federal Reserve Board believes that the CFMA has unquestionably been a successful piece of legislation.

*

Sanders (VT), Ron Paul, ... Barney Frank, virtually EVERYONE knows its time to KILL the federal-reserve, and put money making back under congress.

This is the ONLY solution to the crisis, to issue new currency, and abolish the FRB (FED).

Anonymous said...

No, more like $70 trillion. Where are you getting $240 trillion?


*

$180 Trillion derivatives on the world market

$60 Trillion credit default swaps

Since 2000 there was 10-20 Trillion in toxic paper wealth created around MTG's.

All this is vapor ( toxic paper ), that will evaporate, now that all is going to be be 'marked to market' whether they want to or not, because NOW is the BIG bank-run, everybody in Hedge-Funds, and money-market is taking their money out.

The issue today is ALL this toxic paper has no value, the worlds banks, brokerages, investment houses have ALL been playing the KKR shell game since 1972, e.g. replacing REAL CASH with IOU's and toxic-paper.

Now that the house of cards is crashing there is NO cash to handle the redemptions.

bruce said...

I'm just a prince pussy--HBM is the king. We exchange quiche recipes, using tomatos and peppers from the garden. And only the most expensive organic cheeses and bacon. Grass fed, never caged chickens provide the eggs. Nothing else is acceptable to a true pussies stomach.

While, other than a good organic lager or single malt with at least 17 years in the cask, of course.

Anonymous said...

Palin was just a red herring, and she is so stupid that McCain is going to dump her

*

Palin is doing just fine,

She KICKED ASS during her opening at the PUG con.

She'll kick ass thursday, she's only got to do this one, and BIDEN is also an idiot.

They both have a script, and she's had two weeks of intensive coaching by the best in the world.

She'll do fine.

She's is the ultimate US candidate, 'Being There', ... all wrapped in a flag.

This debate will be the most scripted in history, she'll know all her lines going in.

This is the ONLY debate, after this she'll be never seen again taking live questions.

bruce said...

Re: Now that the house of cards is crashing there is NO cash to handle the redemptions.

The Fed is trying--the put in anoth $650 billion of fresh green paper yesterday, and are pushing foreign central banks to do the same.

The great inflation will soon be upon us, along with the great crash. What's the end product. I'm still puzzling about that. A dollar with .20 Euro or the Great Depression ver 2.0. Right now I'm guessing the former.

Anonymous said...

Now that the house of cards is crashing there is NO cash to handle the redemptions.

*

Like homer said two weeks, ago just de-leveraging, I just go into more detail.

Bubble's, continual Bubble's have kept the US economy going it should have been 1987, or 1972, now there is literally nothing that any POL can pull out of his ass.

The internet is probably the REAL problem, in the past they could have sold the bail-out, but these days GINGRICH got out too quick to his people.

Anonymous said...

What's the end product. I'm still puzzling about that.

*

25-50% un-employment.

BUY Yen, or Yuan ( china ).

Live cheap, keep your auto full of gas in the garage, gas caps will not be enough to protect $200 worth of fuel.

10-20 years, the sooner they start WWIII, the sooner it will be over.

Anonymous said...

Heard the Dorn thing again. What's the story?

*

Marge, knows the cops, give her a few hours, and she'll give us a full report from the police reports.

Anonymous said...

BP, could you get on DIAL and do a dump on what property that DORN owned?? Perhaps he owned some STD lots??

bruce said...

Re: She'll do fine.

Here she is with her sugar daddy, trying to save her from herself. She may not be an idiot, but it's clear she is not ready for prime time.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/09/29/eveningnews/main4487826.shtml

On second thought, she is not only an idiot, but she is an arrogant one.

McCain: "Clinton was a governor of a small state with no experience, too."

Clinton was a Rhodes Scholar. Obama headed the Harvard Law Review. Palin has "a bachelor of science degree in communications-journalism from the University of Idaho."

I'm hoping to find a local house party and have a drinking game of some sort for the debate Thursday. Something like every time she says "change".

Oh, yeah, this just is surfacing, too:

Palin Implicated By Witness in ‘Troopergate’ Probe

An Alaska woman who owns a company that processes workers’ compensation claims in the state has told an independent investigator that she was urged by the office of Gov. Sarah Palin to deny a benefits claim for Palin’s ex brother-in-law, a state trooper who was involved in an ugly divorce and child custody dispute with Palin’s sister, despite evidence that the claim appeared to be legitimate, according to state officials who were briefed about the conversation....Wilkes has a $1.2 million contract with the state to handle workers compensation claims. Her contract with the state was up but her firm was recently given a new contract despite the fact that there were others who provided the state with a lower bid than Wilkes’s firm. One of the other applicants who submitted a lower bid has appealed the decision.

Wilkes told Branchflower she believed it was impressed upon her from Palin's office that she would lose the contract if she did not deny the claim, state officials knowledgeable about her testimony said.


Nice church-going lady.

bruce said...

Re: Dorn

Recordings shows some liens file and repayed on Copper Ridge Lot 28 and Redmond Retail Park Lot 7

bruce said...

DIAL shows three more lots in Boulder Brook, plus the above two mentioned.

No NODs, but that recently repayed lien was for almost $100,000.

Anonymous said...

I'm saddened by these deaths. People need to remember that many of their heroes (including Trump) have been broke more than once.

The people who promoted the Bend Bubble shouldn't be saying there are no suicides, they should be saying, "Yes we know people are in trouble, and we're going to get them help."

It does no one any favor to cover up the sad truths. We need to get people mental health help.

We need seminars and well-publicized professional call lines for people who need help.

We need a newspaper that cuts into its space to tell people how to get help, instead of endlessly, senselessly, and shamelessly promoting a shangra la that's gone away.

bruce said...

Re: BUY Yen, or Yuan ( china ).

Reals (Brazil) are also a good option, or so I've heard/read.

bruce said...

From Phoenix:

A city worker was brutally mauled Tuesday morning by two American bulldogs at a local park, forcing officers to shoot the animals.

The city of Phoenix employee was at Mariposa Park near 33rd and Northern avenues when the two dogs attacked him. The 42-year-old man had serious bites to his arms and upper body. One arm was torn to the bone, said Detective Tony Morales with the Phoenix Police Department.

Police received a call at 9:30 a.m. from a witness who saw the man being attacked. Officers happened to be near the area and responded within minutes.

“As I was walking my dogs in the park I saw the dogs doing something and as I got closer I saw the body,” said Sam Nasser, the witness. “So I called police and said there is a dead body in the park.”

When the officers arrived the man appeared lifeless and the dogs were dragging him through an irrigation system.

The victim was taken to John C. Lincoln with life-threatening injuries, Morales said.

Both dogs, which appeared to weigh between 60 and 70 pounds, were fatally shot after they threatened officers.

Morales said they were large bulldogs and one was female and the other male.

The dogs are believed to have escaped from a nearby house. A criminal investigation is underway.

Marge said...

Bunch of Dingleberries here.

I just called the RV and Marine and asked for Steve. He was not in. I told the gal my name and that I was ans old friend of his and that I heard something awful happened to him. She said yes it did. I said a couple more things and hung up.

There you have. Do the police work yourself.

Anonymous said...

Never let it be said that Marge is afraid to go where angels fear to tread.

Anonymous said...

ihatetoburstyourbubble said "I guess I don't know what The Bush Doctrine is either, outside of this Rule By Fear Agenda he's got going. Is this what Hitler did? Seriously. This is starting to feel like some sort of whacked dictator is running things."

HaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHah..oh shit heehee!

Yet another conservative turns liberal. Just one more kick in the crotch and you could join the APA=Armed Progressives of America. We been saying this for 8 FUCKING YEARS! Too bad membership is full up right now:(

hbm said...

"BP, could you get on DIAL and do a dump on what property that DORN owned?? Perhaps he owned some STD lots??"



What is he, your BitchPussyGofer?

hbm said...

" bruce said...
DIAL shows three more lots in Boulder Brook, plus the above two mentioned."

ROTFLMAO!!!

BP takes the trophy.

GrandMasterKing_of_all_Pussys!!! LOL

hbm said...

As marge says, do your own work, you fucking Repug Trolls!!

Over and out...

bruce said...

Hey, I was curious, too. If ulitmately true, I imagine the rolling RE on the lot is a real big investment as well. And not moving off the lot real fast.

Anonymous said...

I told the gal my name and that I was ans old friend of his and that I heard something awful happened to him. She said yes it did. - marge

*

Well that's it, confirmed, once again marge comes through.

This week the biggest auto dealer in the US went BK, 'Tom Heard' I think chevy dealer, 3500 lost their jobs, auto is hurtin bad, now if they can just get that $25Billion bailout.

Anonymous said...

Fuck that shit BP, we all work together this fucking cunt ( and he's not the real HBM ) is just saying dumb shit.

All of us here, have different expertise, BP likes to sift through govee shit, ..

Add another to Bend's suicide developer death list, gosh hung himself at work.

There are about a dozen of us, and we each are good at certain things.

Perhaps if mr. lib-hater could tell us what he was good at, we could give him a project?

Anonymous said...

Re: Dorn

Recordings shows some liens file and repayed on Copper Ridge Lot 28 and Redmond Retail Park Lot 7

*

That's enough STD developing, commercial lots, ... playing with fire, any new purchases during the falling knife, that seems to be the biggest killer around here.

RV, Auto, ... hurting bad, their customers can't get loans, fuel up, nobody wants huge RV's, all recreational finance on permanent hold, credit cards tapped out.

This is just normal cyclic shit, but feeding Real Estate lots that have no fucking hope of paying for themselves in a generation, that is a killer.

Anonymous said...

I just called the RV and Marine and asked for Steve. He was not in. I told the gal my name and that I was ans old friend of his and that I heard something awful happened to him. She said yes it did. I said a couple more things and hung up.

There you have. Do the police work yourself.

*

Thanks marge, now isn't that easy, it takes just a few minutes around here to verify a rumor.

Yes, I agree with the person who posted on suicide denial. If this place was recognized for what it is, the 'suicide capital of the USA, per capita', perhaps it would be a public health issue, and treatment could be made available.

Say on TV or Radio here ad's like, "Don't kill yourself, just cuz you bought Bend RE during the falling knife, ... St. Charles has folks 24/7 you can talk with, ..."

hbm said...

McCain: "Clinton was a governor of a small state with no experience, too."

Wasn't he also governor for something like five terms? That's a little different from a year and a half. And while it's small compared to some states, Arkansas is huge compared to Alaska -- the metro Little Rock area ALONE has more people (over 666,000) than the whole state of Alaska.

McCain is full of shit. But that's not news.

Anonymous said...

Palin is doing just fine,

She KICKED ASS during her opening at the PUG con.

She'll kick ass thursday, she's only got to do this one, and BIDEN is also an idiot.


Ummm... have you seen any of her interviews? Couric? Gibson?

She didn't kick ass. She looked like an ass.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vbg6hF0nShQ

I can't imagine a situation where she actually comes out ahead after Thursday.

Anonymous said...

Please, lets not go back to the PALIN shit, we did this for almost two weeks ago and that dead-horse is dead.

Also in our 2+ years, we never did politics, it all came with this phony HBM,

Let's focus on the economy, let's debate the effects of the Bend Bubble, obviously international economic collapse effects Bend.

Palin is just fucking BUSH-SHIT, if you like her vote for her, if you don't then don't. If you like her a whole lot then get her image and beat off.

hbm said...

We need seminars and well-publicized professional call lines for people who need help. We need a newspaper that cuts into its space to tell people how to get help, instead of endlessly, senselessly, and shamelessly promoting a shangra la that's gone away.

Amen. The Bull could do a piece on recognizing the signs of depression in yourself or others and how to find help. But it probably doesn't want to admit that people get depressed and even commit suicide in "paradise."

Anonymous said...

A few weeks BILL CLINTON himself said, ..

"Don't underestimate Sarah Palin, she is a natural politician, and has some of the best instinct of the game I have ever seen"

Bill said this two weeks, and I agree, don't underestimate her, otherwise you'll lose. Stupid works, it worked for BUSH for 7 years, now he's playing the pity card.

the one and only hbm said...

Also in our 2+ years, we never did politics, it all came with this phony HBM

About half of the hbms posting here are phony. I am the real one.

Anonymous said...

The Bull could do a piece on recognizing the signs of depression in yourself or others and how to find help. But it probably doesn't want to admit that people get depressed and even commit suicide in "paradise."

*

Now there's the real HBM that I love.

'Paradise' I thought this place was exceptional, a real 'ASS-BEND'.

Anonymous said...

I can tell from the last sentence your the real one, I think its best to use a 'blue' login name, or be anonymous, if you continue to just use 'name' "HBM", your going to have all the BP haters imitate you.

hbm said...

25-50% un-employment.

50%???? That's nuts. Unemployment only hit 25% during the Great Depression.

50% is Haiti.

Anonymous said...

Ummm... have you seen any of her interviews? Couric? Gibson?

She didn't kick ass. She looked like an ass.

*

First of all NEWBIE read our fucking threads. This couric interview has had dozens of comments. I have no horse ( or rat ) in this race.

I think the interview was brilliant, for every fucking questions, Palin answer 'health care' for mothers like myself over-whelmed. Fuck brilliant.

Marge said...

I hope Costa is reading this. Maybe he can get a suicide prevention line going. I think suicide is selfish. Look what you do to you friends and the pile you leave your family in. Then nobody will talk about it except bloggers.
HEY JC shed some light on this problem. Maybe Ann@ zero will jump you on this.

Anonymous said...

50%???? That's nuts. Unemployment only hit 25% during the Great Depression.

*

That's a funny thing, first of all its known, or reported that 'un-employment' high during the great depression was 25%, but this time is worse because of the leveraging, we simply don't know.

In the old days they used honest numbers, e.g. census of un-employed, today its only those looking for jobs, once you give up, your no longer on the list.

Certainly games were played in the 30's, and certainly today even in Bend their is already double-digit un-employment, if you consider all able bodied folk without a job or trust-fund.

What will it BE in the future? Well given 25% last time, it can be that or worst. That said, given our funny numbers, and the fact that we still refuse to even admit we're in a recession ( may 2007 ), the depression will be over by the time they admit.

A depression is 10% un-employment, thus Bend is already in a state of depression.

Anonymous said...

Marge,

Can you post the full known on this guy, and I'll pass it on to anne at the big-zero.

She needs to be kept up on our developer suicide watch.

Anonymous said...

The space used up by that stupid suicide denial editorial could have been used to launch a community initiative.

Anonymous said...

Come on Costa, time to write a "Yes, Bend has a problem, and here's how we at the Bulletin are going to try to help."

You can do it!

Anonymous said...

BP,

I didn't ask for the liens, they don't mean shit, if your a player you have liens.

This guy has dozens of BIG commercial all over, and is sitting on a ton of full sectional lots ( 160 acres ), major fucking player, mostly Redmond.

***

[00003] STEVE DORN INVESTMENTS LLC


[00001] 124663 R2001151321C001800 2795 S HWY 97, REDMOND 56 A

[00002] 200545 R2001151319AD00246 2009 SW 38TH ST, REDMOND 56 A

[00003] 209851 R2001151309CC01406 , A

[00004] 240865 R2001151309CC01433 , A

[00005] 240870 R2001151309CC01438 , A

[00006] 256589 R2001151321CC00601 , A



[00004] STEVE DORN RV & MARINE INC

Anonymous said...

Anne Saker - BIG ZERO
annesaker@news.oregonian.com

*

Tell her what you know, she wants all the stuff about Bend suicides, give it to her.

Marge said...

Marge,

Can you post the full known on this guy?


Haven't heard it all. I put the bug in a few ears..so may hear more.

bruce said...

I didn't know what the hell that was. How do you read it?

Anonymous said...

First of all NEWBIE read our fucking threads. This couric interview has had dozens of comments. I have no horse ( or rat ) in this race.

I think the interview was brilliant, for every fucking questions, Palin answer 'health care' for mothers like myself over-whelmed. Fuck brilliant.


First off, you look like an idiot. Speak in full sentences - what the fuck is that caveman talk in the last paragraph? Ever hear of tense? "... for mothers like myself over-whelmed?" What does that even mean?

Idiot.

Just because you can yell in CAPS and cuss a lot doesn't mean you are right.

I can't take a damn thing seriously that you say if you actually think that interview was good for Palin. Since she has been opening her mouth they have been going down in the polls. I expect a further decline after she speaks Thursday.

Lastly - cut with the newbie shit. We are both posting anonymously so neither of us knows who the other is, or how long they have been here. Way to try to use intimidation to ward off criticism. It's not working. You are an ass. It's nothing new, you have been showing your true colors for a long, long time. Please shut up.

Anonymous said...

I can't take a damn thing seriously that you say if you actually think that interview was good for Palin.

[FUCK YOU]

Since she has been opening her mouth they have been going down in the polls.

[NOT TRUE, McCain is going down, PALIN is loved, by those who love her. ]
I expect a further decline after she speaks Thursday.

[ You beat her down, and her people will love her more, the more you focus on her, and less on McCain, the more likely McCain will bring another four years of McSame ]

Read carefully what Bill Clinton said about Palin two weeks ago "Palin has a natural gift for politics, don't underestimate this women".

The worst thing you can do in war is assume that your enemy is week.

Anonymous said...

Can you post the full known on this guy?

Haven't heard it all. I put the bug in a few ears..so may hear more.

*

I'm sorry, can you post little history, so everyone can get the whole picture? I'm talking over the last 20+ years, not the last 72 hours.

Anonymous said...

I didn't know what the hell that was. How do you read it?

*

BP, I'm not one to bitch slap you.

If you actually owned land, building, and property here, you would know your shit, and read it on DIAL, then you would know what it means. Given you don't own shit in Bend, its hard to look at the shit and know what it means.

All this is like a puzzle, we get a few pieces like DORN hangs himself, and a little from you, marge, and a few others, and we develop a picture in a few hours, then we move on.

I have had this discussion with you, a lot of these records don't mean much if you don't have a lot of your own records and know what you have, for instance if you have loans, then you know to look for them, you find them, then you know how to find loans on others. You own raw land, you know how they record raw land, cuz you know what you have, and what they have recorded about it.

I know of no other way to use these tools, I suspect that a REAL MTG pro or a realtor with a brain can read these records, but unless your a wheeler dealer in RE, its not going to mean much.

Just find what you can and post it, and if if you have questions on what it means, we'll help educate ALL.

Marge said...

I'm talking over the last 20+ years.

***
I'll poke around.

Anonymous said...

I'm talking over the last 20+ years.

***
I'll poke around.

*

You called and told them you knew him, do you? I have never been in his store, I don't buy fresh water boats, or RV's with 500 horse motors.

I was hoping a little history, so we could put together a picture of the man. For instance with Audia, we were able to put together a picture pretty quick about his love of golf, and part of the community, and his recent development of affordable housing, ...

I'm sure HOMER will do the FULL google, and find any past five year BULL.

Anonymous said...

Homer ask's for material, but this is the kind of thing, a major business man in Bend, takes his life, that's worthy of a whole blog.

People want the story, of the man. Sort of like Orson Welles and 'Citizen Kane', people need to know about 'rosebud'.

Anonymous said...

Looks like he had two youngish children working there with him. Damn shame.

http://www.stevedorn.net/content05.asp?nav=105808&

Anonymous said...

Re: Dorn

Recordings shows some liens file and repayed on Copper Ridge Lot 28 and Redmond Retail Park Lot 7

*

BP, just dump anything you can find, if its not obvious what it means, someone will detail it, right now we just need to dump the entire elephant in order to see the big picture.

Anonymous said...

Last year they had the BIGGEST RV show in the nation right there in Redmond you folks all remember??

RV biz with high fuel costs is seasonal, and like dunc enough years in the biz you learn to mix & match, product, but this real-estate mix, you buy that stuff and your bleeding your cash flow, and there is no way in hell to fix the problem.

I remember last year when they had the RV show, I think near the Redmond fair grounds the BULL was all over that show.

Anonymous said...

GOOGLE DROPS to $25 today, 9% loss

*** This is what the future will look like ***

Google stock plunges more than 93% in "erroneous trading"
By Wolfgang Gruener
Tuesday, September 30, 2008 17:06

New (York) - Google’s stock was hit by what appears to have been massive "erroneous trading" that caused the stock to drop from a $380 Monday close to as low as $25.80 in late Tuesday trading. The drop happened within the final five minutes of the trading day.

The share price began to recover almost as quickly as it fell and close at $320, down $60.50 and more than 17%. Over the course of the day, Google shares were trading in the $395 - $420 range. Preceding the dramatic 93.3% drop, the stock climbed to $488.92 at around 3:55 PM EDT.

At 3:57 PM, the share price rose back to slightly above the $400 mark, but fell back to the closing price of $320.50.

Anonymous said...

Another reason to stay away from the stock market.

***

Google Inc.
(Public, NASDAQ:GOOG) - Add to Portfolio - Discuss GOOG Find more results for GOOG

320.50
-60.50 (-15.88%)

Marge said...

You called and told them you knew him, do you?

No Dog..I lied when I called. Who could guess that I may lie about something. He is a past client of someone I knew..They sold him some RE. The someone is not around anymore.

Anonymous said...

woof woof, we love you marge

enjoying your holiday?

Marge said...

By John Letzing, MarketWatch
Last update: 6:24 p.m. EDT Sept. 30, 2008Comments: 3SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Following a confusing late slide in shares of Google Inc. Tuesday, the Nasdaq Stock Market canceled a block of transactions in the stock and reset its closing price, citing the mistaken routing of trades from another exchange.

Anonymous said...

Lastly - cut with the newbie shit. We are both posting anonymously so neither of us knows who the other is, or how long they have been here.

Hey, dump fuck, everybody who posts here anonymously knows who everybody else is. And most who fake somebody else (like the non-hbm gal) are outed by the smart ones (but fooled by the idiots). To say "We are both posting anonymously so neither of us knows who the other is" means you have outed yourself as an idiot/newbie.

Way to try to use intimidation to ward off criticism. It's not working. You are an ass. It's nothing new, you have been showing your true colors for a long, long time. Please shut up.

Intimidation and cussing are a literary style here, you dumb fuck. Learn the local ways.

And nobody, I mean NOBODY, not even the pussy, nor the hbms (real or otherwise), nor dunc, nor buster, butter, NOBODY has ever said Please shut up.

If you want somebody to shut up, then the proper terminology is:

SHUT THE FUCK UP!

Please shut up. ??? LOL Come on, dude!

hbm said...

What will it BE in the future? Well given 25% last time, it can be that or worst.

Could be. We will be hit worse than most other areas because our economy is so dependent on real estate, construction and related services.

An old friend of mine who worked for years with a well-established local architect just let me know she was laid off. I don't know the reason but I have to surmise it had to do with a decline in clients.

Growth has become our only industry, and it's tough to sell "lifestyle" to people standing in bread lines.

hbm said...

Google stock plunges more than 93% in "erroneous trading"

You can smell the panic in the air on Wall Street even from 3000 miles away. No stock is safe.

hbm said...

Top 10 Excuses for Sarah Palin to Cancel the Debate:

10. Suspicious Russian tourists spotted across the Bering strait in Dezhnevo

9. Wrasslin' a bear

8. Learns Tina Fey will be watching

7. When taken on tour of White House by McCain handlers, is "inadvertently" locked in Cheney's man-sized safe

6. Schedule for memorizing state capitals thrown off by need for new schedule to memorize states

5. Speechless after finally looking up what "MILF" stands for

4. On deadline to finish her book, Namin' Your Baby the Alaskan Way

3. Needs more time to really nail those hilarious hair-plug zingers

2. No matter how hard she scrubs, she can't get Kissinger's moral stank off of her

1. Stuck in traffic on the Bridge to Nowhere

-- David Weinberger, Huffington Post


Just thought a little humor might be welcome. G'night.

Anonymous said...

Growth has become our only industry, and it's tough to sell "lifestyle" to people standing in bread lines.

-hbm

*

This is the REAL fucking HBM, I hope your reading homer, cuz look carefully.

OUR REAL HBM is sound JUST like our homer.

Can't have a town, that only exists by grifting growth.

Enough Said, any LEADer's ( lead as the kind used in fish'n and shoot'n ) listening?

Anonymous said...

Google stock plunges more than 93% in "erroneous trading"

You can smell the panic in the air on Wall Street even from 3000 miles away. No stock is safe.


*

Short are Guard-Rails, now even they have been removed.

NOTICE nothing is SAFE, and even a vaporous company like GOOGLE can tank in a nano-second.

Beware.

They should have blamed 'technology' on all the bank stock failures, leave it to google to blame their fucking collapse on technology.

Personally GOOGLE is fucked, they're ONLY revenue is advertising and its down 90% in the past 3-4 years, and now its down to the last 10% and falling by the hour. Today basically 'internet advertising' is fucked.

The 'CHROME' is a SHIT SW. The google G1 is PURE shit, the day of all of google smelling a rose is fucked.

TECH is fucked.

If y2k knocked out 90%, then 911, knocked out the last 10%, meaning 1% post y2k, and then along comes May 2007, Bush Recession, and now high-tech don't have a leg to stand on.

Believe me BOYZ I know tech, and its fucked like never before.

Defense has shit-tanked, and what was left was banking.

Google, Oracle, ... all the men left standing are going to be LEH,AIG,WAMU, ... in the coming days.

Anonymous said...

Please shut up. ??? LOL Come on, dude!

*

YEP that's pure vaginal talk around here, and unless your marge, you can't take it.

Anonymous said...

DORN RV, METH, crime, ... Bend Shit.

***

Police, deputies break 2-year Bend-Redmond theft ring

Kurt Newton of Steve Dorn RV and marine in Redmond expressed frustration earlier this month after second break-in in three weeks
Kurt Newton of Steve Dorn RV and marine in Redmond expressed frustration earlier this month after second break-in in three weeks

Redmond man jailed; recovered items include two RV dealers' TVs

By Barney Lerten, KTVZ.COM

A 22-year-old Redmond man faces numerous burglary, theft and other charges in recent break-ins at two Redmond RV dealerships, an investigation that also has turned up "multiple items" stolen from homes, businesses and construction sites around Bend and Redmond over the past two years.

Deschutes County Sheriff's Office Street Crimes Unit detectives, aided by Redmond Police detectives, acted Friday on information about "multiple burglaries" in Bend and Redmond, according to a news release issued early Saturday by sheriff's Lt. kevin Dizney and Sgt. Mike Espinoza.

The investigation turned up "multiple items of stolen property," including three flat-screen TVs believed to have been stolen over the past several weeks at Steve Dorn RV and Marine and Courtesy RV in Redmond, the officers said.

Various other seized items include construction equipment, jewelry and other home electronics, they said.

Curtis Martin Sly was arrested in the RV dealer burglaries, Dizney and Espinoza said, adding that the "investigation will continue to properly identify locations where these crimes occurred and to identify those responsible for these crimes."

Sly was being held Saturday on $54,000 bail at the Deschutes County Jail, facing three counts each of first-degree criminal mischief, burglary and third-degree criminal trespass, two counts each of first-degree theft and first-degree theft by receiving, and one count of first-degree attempted theft.

Anyone with added information that could help in the investigation was urged to contact the sheriff's office Detectives Division at (541) 617-3393 or 1-800-3-DETECT.

The two RV dealerships had three break-ins in less than a month, mostly through door windows, taking the TVs and stereos. The thefts prompted the dealers to move the TVs out of the RVs and into a secure area.

"They knew what they were doing," Robert Eastham of Courtesy RV said at the time, showing how a fence was cut by culprits who drove in and broke into the RVs and campers. Dorn was hit twice and Courtesy once, officials said.

"It's real frustrating," said Kurt Newton of the Dorn dealership. Police said at the time they had identified suspects in the case.

While authorities weren't available Saturday to provide more details or confirm or deny any link, it was the second time in a month that a major Redmond-area theft ring was busted, leading to arrests.

Redmond officers recovered about 270 stolen items in a Feb. 22 raid on a southwest Redmond apartment, saying they'd been stolen from stores, construction sites, homes and vehicles throughout Central Oregon, with the loot then sold on eBay. Officers announced on March 11 the arrest of two men, Jason Vickers and Brian Fee, but said the investigation was continuing and more arrests were pending.

Anonymous said...

A week ago a permit to build a 'dollar tree' in Redmond, anyone want to bet?? Deal fell through??

***

Permit#: B67775 Issued: 09/23/08 Value: 6,840
Taxmap: 151321C001800 Bldg Use: (2) WALL SIGNS DOLLAR TREE
Applicant: STEVE DORN INVESTMENTS LLC, Contractor: CARLSON SIGN CO INC
Location : 2795 S HWY 97 REDMOND Subdivision:

Anonymous said...

HEY KUNT's the mother load, and its in IDAHO.

* Same Guy *

Declarant: The term “Declarant” shall mean Steve Dorn Investments LLC, or its’ successors in interest, or any person or entity to whom rights under this Declaration are expressly transferred by Steve Dorn Investments LLC.

A Notary Public, personally appeared D. Steven Dorn known or identified to me to be the Member of Steve Dorn Investments LLC, that executed the instrument or the person who executed the instrument on behalf of said Corporation, and acknowledged to me that such Corporation executed the same.

IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand and affixed my official seal, the day and year in this certificate first above written.


__________________________________

NOTARY PUBLIC FOR OREGON

DECLARATION OF PROTECTIVE COVENANTS, CONDITIONS AND RESTRICTIONS FOR VAN DORN ESTATES


For Platted Lands in Adams County, Idaho.

THIS DECLARATION is made this ____thth day of September 2006; by Steve Dorn Investments LLC. hereinafter called “Declarant”.

WHEREAS Declarant is the owner of the real property described in Article III of this Declaration (“the Property”) and desires to create on a portion thereof a residential community;

WHEREAS Declarant desires to provide for the preservation of the values and amenities in the Property, and to this end, desires to subject the Property to the covenants, conditions, restrictions, easements, charges and liens hereinafter set forth, each and all of which is and are intended for the mutual benefit of said property and of each owner of a portion thereof; and,

NOW, THEREFORE, the Declarant declares that the Property, and such additions to the Property as may be made pursuant to Article X hereof, is and shall be held, transferred, sold, conveyed and occupied subject to covenants, conditions, easements, charges, and liens hereinafter set forth.

Anonymous said...

McCall IDAHO, real nice place, all done begun at the begin of the falling knife, exactly like AUDIA.

I have to admit KUNT's McCall is a fucking jewell compared to Bend, but interesting, make your money in Bend, playing RE, selling frontal I97 lots, and make your BIG play in McCall-Idaho, of course as we all know, even in Idaho, its game-over.

***

The Crawford Company, Van Dorn Estates
The Van Dorn Estates consist of fifteen private and secluded five-acre parcels. ... McCall, Idaho 83638 Office: (208) 347-2323 Fax: (208) 347-2891 ...
www.thecrawfordcompany.com/van_dorn_estates.htm - 17k - Cached - Similar pages
#
Crawford Company Real Estate, New Meadows and McCall Idaho
Our office is in downtown New Meadows, Idaho at the intersection of Hwy 55 ... Van Dorn Estates consists of fifteen private and secluded five-acre parcels. ...

Anonymous said...

OUCH bitches, I have beer drinking, I'm out of here, its tuesday, which means happy hour at bend-brewing.

That said FUCKING OUCH these "DORN" lots are for sale at $1,000, and there is NO-MIN BID!!! MARGE/HOMER are you reading this SHEEEEEEET, tomorrow I'll figure what he paid for this stuff, my fucking gawd OUCH!!!!!!!!!!!!

What have we been saying about BEND-OREGON? De-leveraging down 200X!!!!!!!!!!

***

Lot 8 Van Dorn Drive , New Meadows ID - Photo Gallery View with 3D Wall of Images.
Building Lots
Price: $ 1,000
MLS#:CIR98376517
Beds: ( 0 )
Baths:( 0.0 )
Sq. Ft.:( 0 )
5 Acres - 9.9 Acres
Land Use: Single
Built in 1

Subdivision:Van Dorn Estates New Meadows



No minimum bid on Lot 8, to be sold by auction on November 19, 2008. In conjunction with Realty Marketing/Northwest of Seattle & Portland. Listing information courtesy of: The Crawford Company

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Brucey, what's up with your wife's shop? Looks like it's For Sale... unless I'm totally off on which is her store....

Says it's an AUCTION

Anonymous said...

Brucey, what's up with your wife's shop? Looks like it's For Sale... unless I'm totally off on which is her store....

Says it's an AUCTION


I am pretty sure that it's just the building for sale, not the business. That building has been for sale a number of times in the last few years.

(hey buster, which anonymous am I?)

bruce said...

Re:
I am pretty sure that it's just the building for sale

Yeah, Pete Wilkinson is auctioning off 14 of his 16 properties, keeping only five acres in Tumalo and a $200,000 house to live in. His million dollar house up on Jackdaw(?) with great views of the mountains is even going, along with the vacant lot right next to it. Same guy who got the city to sell the Galveston/14th corner lot to him for $100K, but couldn't pull it off in the end.

Marge said...

Holy Crap! Marge is so proud of her kin for finding all of the property records. Whitey lives in McCall and the KKK survialists! Maybe Steve was a Whitey prepper, gambled and lost. Money can kill you. Bad investments can kill you. Hope the family can forgive him for what he has done. Baby Jeebus...please be forgiving.

bruce said...

Norway's got a three-year lease, so they are good. He may even bid on the property himself--his family owns a bank back in Kansas. The shop is in a great position right now, just waiting to pounce. Staying lean, ready to pick up the good stuff when it becomes available.

bruce said...

This is a scary article, just how dumb pols are:

SEC, FASB Resist Calls to Suspend Fair-Value Rules (Update2)

Sept. 30 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission probably will resist calls to suspend the fair-value accounting rules that some members of Congress blame for exacerbating the global financial crisis, people familiar with the matter said.

The SEC and Financial Accounting Standards Board today issued ``clarifications'' on how banks should interpret existing rules requiring them to review assets each quarter and report losses if values decline. A moratorium isn't being considered, said the people, who declined to be identified because the plan hasn't been completed.

Congressmen, banking lobbyists and companies including American International Group Inc. have urged the SEC to suspend fair-value accounting, saying it forces firms to report losses they never expect to incur. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and other proponents say removing the rule would erode confidence that firms are owning up to losses.

``In the past couple of weeks, fair-value accounting has been under attack,'' JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Dane Mott wrote in a report today. ``Blaming fair-value accounting for the credit crisis is a lot like going to a doctor for a diagnosis and then blaming him for telling you that you are sick.'' ...

Representative Todd Tiahrt, a Kansas Republican, said the House probably would have approved a $700 billion bailout of financial companies yesterday had the legislation included a suspension of fair-value accounting. The House rejected the measure 228-205.

It would have passed ``easily'' if the rules had been suspended, Tiahrt, who opposed the legislation, said today in a Bloomberg Television interview.

Bernanke said in Sept. 23 testimony before the Senate Banking Committee that if regulators repeal the rules, ``nobody knows what the true mark-to-market price is.''

Fair-value rules require companies to determine how much assets are worth based on what they could expect to sell them for on the open market.

``Suspending the mark-to-market prices is the most irresponsible thing to do,'' said Diane Garnick, who helps oversee more than $500 billion as an investment strategist at Invesco Ltd. in New York. ``Accounting does not make corporate earnings or balance sheets more volatile. Accounting just increases the transparency of volatility in earnings.''

`Unrealistic Prices'

Anne Canfield, executive vice president of the Consumer Mortgage Coalition, counters that businesses have been forced to ``mark down their assets to unrealistic fire-sale prices,'' because trading has dried up. Canfield, whose group represents mortgage lenders, urged the SEC to suspend fair-value rules ``immediately'' in a Sept. 29 letter to the agency.


More at the link.

Suspending mark-to-market rules would be absolutely devastating in the long run. Fucking stupidest thing I have heard lately.

tim said...

1. I agree with Bruce. These fuckers will use the first excuse to get rid of mark-to-market accounting that they can.

2. Great article from 9 years ago in the NYT on Fannie Mae:

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9c0DE7DB153EF933A0575AC0A96F958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all

Money quote:

In moving, even tentatively, into this new area of lending, Fannie Mae is taking on significantly more risk, which may not pose any difficulties during flush economic times. But the government-subsidized corporation may run into trouble in an economic downturn, prompting a government rescue similar to that of the savings and loan industry in the 1980's.

3. Terrible news about Steve Dorn. I think the Real Estate he has will turn out to be minimal. But that RV/Marine business has got to be rough right now. Who is NOT trying to dump the boats and RVs they bought with HELOCs right now?

The pressure of it being a family business, and employing a lot of good people, must have been just awful.

4. Any bets on how the Bulletin will handle the Dorn story?

hbm said...

You know it balances on your head
Just like a mattress balances
On a bottle of wine

Anonymous said...

The anon non-buster wrote:
"Hey, dump fuck, everybody who posts here anonymously knows who everybody else is. And most who fake somebody else (like the non-hbm gal) are outed by the smart ones (but fooled by the idiots)."


BP as anonymous:
(hey buster, which anonymous am I?)

Good one, BP.

At first I thought you were seriously idiotic, but then I realized even you couldn't be that dense. Just playing dumb over to the buster. I get it.

Marge said...

Great work today boyz! Maybe JC will pickup on the suicide thing. HBM any pull left there?

hbm said...

Name me someone who’s not a parasite, And I’ll go out and say a prayer for him

hbm said...

All are parasites, sucking the rich, sweet mother's milk from the gov't teat.

hbm said...

hbm is 200th

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