Sunday, January 27, 2008

Bend Oregon: In A Depression Right Now

Well, I don't know if anyone else has noticed, by Ye Olde BendBubble2 blog has expended much virtual ink on the idea that there are people that need to be convinced that there is in fact a RE Bubble of unparalleled size imploding right now in our fair city. I've long talked that the nationwide implosion of wealth would be probably the most dramatic economic event in this country this decade (Or 2. Or 3), and it would probably be far and away the most important event in the history of Bend. So many previous posts were about convincing you that it was coming, and trying to guide people in a rational course of action, if you are caught in the Bend RE bubble. Hmmmm....that doesn't seem to be really necessary anymore.

If you can fog a mirror, you may have begun to perceive through the numerous obscure references to the US economy imploding before our eyes that have become de rigeur on The Nightly News & on the Presidential Cacophony of Bullshit, that The Shit Has Officially Hit The Fan. You may have started to notice a frenzied attempt to calm the masses with a large number of $600 checks. Yes, yes. That'll set things right. I'm looking at a $100K spanking on each of my 5 Bend spec homes, and by God, $600 will make it all better.

And as an aside, the Classic Stupidity of Liberals was aired on KTVZ, with respect to a "poll" asking locals what they would do with their refund check. The second person asked was a red-faced Bush hater, who responded, "I don't see how anyone can accept money from that... lying.... MAN!". Such vitriol for Bush is common, but ONLY KTVZ would have aired such an irrelevant liberal rant. Good call, dumbshits.

And so this blog must move to a new phase of chronicling the destruction, instead of convincing you about the depth & breadth of the coming horrors. The horror is here. And it's not leaving for the rest of our lives. It'll lead to a helluva recession in this country, despite protestations that it'll be short & mild. The government has NEVER predicted anything but short & mild recessions.

Bends fate is dramatically different though. We'll return to the Bend of Olde. Yes, when the dreadlocked set were easily employed for the Summer. When Bend teachers worked retail all Summer. 12% unemployment in February. You know, the good stuff, Depression era Bend.

Yes, I actually heard The "D" Word, by the abortion of Suzie Orman, Melony Hobson, on Good Morning America. Of course she said it would not happen in America EVER, but she actually defined what a depression is: 10% drop in GDP. I didn't know that. She said there has actually been a Depression since WWII, although she didn't say when. I'm guessing the early 80's.

Anyway, I've said often Bend is headed for a recession, which of course we are already in, right now. But that is sort damning our town with faint praise: We're headed for a Depression, in fact we are probably in it's beginning stages RIGHT NOW. And before it's over, DOWN 10% will look Damn Good.


So, with that I will try to temper my Predictions Of Doom, because it seems quite obvious to any sentient being that we are in the teeth of the most ravaging economic conflagration this town & the country will experience in the next 100 years.

So what's on the mind of our blessed commenters?

Well, there is one thread that sort of makes me chuckle, but lemme quote a wikipedia chunk on what an Alchemist is, first:

The best known goals of the alchemists were the transmutation of common metals into gold (called chrysopoeia) or silver (less well known is plant alchemy, or "spagyric"); the creation of a "panacea or the elixir of life," a remedy that supposedly would cure all diseases and prolong life indefinitely; and the discovery of a universal solvent.[1] Although these were not the only uses for the science, they were the ones most documented and well known. Starting with the Middle Ages, European alchemists invested much effort on the search for the "philosopher's stone", a legendary substance that was believed to be an essential ingredient for either or both of those goals. The Philosophers Stone was believed to mystically amplify the user's knowledge of alchemy so much that anything was attainable. Alchemists enjoyed prestige and support through the centuries, though not for their pursuit of those goals, nor the mystic and philosophical speculation that dominates their literature. Rather it was for their mundane contributions to the "chemical" industries of the day—the invention of gunpowder, ore testing and refining, metalworking, production of ink, dyes, paints, and cosmetics, leather tanning, ceramics and glass manufacture, preparation of extracts and liquors, and so on (it seems that the preparation of aqua vitae, the "water of life", was a fairly popular "experiment" among European alchemists).

Alchemy? What the hell sort of analogy is this about? Here's some guesses:

1) New Bend business transplant, International Environmental Technologies.
2) Bend real estate.
3) Bend, itself
4) Capstone turbines
5) The Shire
6) Tuscany Arctic Pine Butt Munkees
7) All of the above
8) Number 9

Yeah, my own guess is Number 8, which in fact leads to Number 9, which in fact leads to... confusion & nothing. Which, if you've been reading this blog for long, is pretty close to the mark. But, perhaps it is All of the Above.

Bend is built on the idea that you can convert an empty fantasy into something of substance. IET, is so perfect for Bend, it really is amusing. All the essentials are there:

1) Overly Impressive, yet meaningless name? CHECK!
2) Business Plan that defies the Second Law of Thermodynamics? CHECK!
3) Black box technology that somehow promises infinite wealth, yet sells zero units? CHECK!
4) Dumbfuck town willing to fund hucksters into the next century? CHECK!

As Brucey put it:

Whenever I hear about creating energy using extremely high temps, I start to wonder just how much net energy you end up with...

See, I was raised in a town where you burned your garbage in a big 32 gallon drum out back. NEVER did I get anything back, when I burned shit. But the alchemists at IET have totally bamboozled EDCO (ie Bend taxpayers) into sucking their corporate beanbag to relocate here. Here was Jeff Surma's (IET CEO) pitch:

Jeff: Roger Lee, how goes it? Dude, we have totally made a Magic Garbage Can, where you throw shit in, and out pops unlimited wealth! It's awesome!

Roger: Really? Cool! Cuz we need some big shit now that our previous Master Plan, "Double Down On Red", has imploded. What happens if I throw garbage in it?

Jeff: Dude, it totally produces this stuff, it's like plasma gas, that actually powers anything you want!

Roger: Really? What if I take a shit in my hand, and throw it in there?

Jeff: Dude, out pops a solid gold toilet! Seriously!

Roger: This seems to defy 9th grade physics though. Plus I've taken a shit in about 600 campfires, and never ended up with a solid gold toilet.

Jeff: Dude! That's old school, bullshit theory! It's 2008! It's Hammertime! This is the New Economy! Haven't you heard of Rumpelstiltskin? That shits in a BOOK! It's been proven in Estonian physics labs that this stuff works! Dude, just to prove how lucrative this is, here's a free coupon for a bottle of $4 wine at the Grocery Outlet!

Roger: Damn! It must really work!

And so forth. IET is exactly the sort of company this town attracts. Whether it's turning straw into gold, water into wine, or shit into solid gold toilets, Bend is your kind of town if you're in the grifting trade. You'll notice that water-to-wine, bullshit energy products make the rounds everytime oil pops up 50% "Gas additives" that boost your mileage to 300mpg? Yeah, every pop in oil. This is the same thing, it's just the Long Con for The Big Money.

And Bend is the Perfect Mark.

City of Bend On It's Way To Going Broke

An anonymous poster put the contents of this Bulletin piece in the comments, "Bend park board’s HQ on track as ball fields are slashed".

Pretty straightforward: Our fair City assumed that Doubling Down On Red was The Eternal Road To Riches back in the day, but unfortunately they didn't do 2 things first:

1) Read this blog
2) Think

So Big Fun, enviro-friendly, The Money Will Never End sort of projects, like Bend Pine Disneyworld are being scaled back to meth-den, gang-run Mexi-Cali shithole "parks", featuring parking lot & portable toilets, and the occasional raped jogger.

The scaling back on this particular project should give you pause about moving to, or staying in a city that is RIGHT NOW laying off cops: From $13MM, clear down to $2MM, or an 85% cut. THIS is just a hint of what's to come, and really happens to anyplace that sells it's soul to the devil or Brooks Resources: QUALITY OF LIFE GOES AWAY.

We made a Faustian Bargain that we'd do anything to be Number 1. Welp, the devil delivered, and now it's time to pay. Practically FREE SDC charges have transferred profits from the Citizens of Bend, to Mike Hollern, Randy Sebastian, and other shysters. Instead of parks, we have parking lots. Instead of cops, we'll have crack houses. Instead of handicap ramps, we have... nothing. Instead of mass transit, we got a junk yard.

And it's cold comfort that people like Hollern plowed their cash back into Fields of Dreams like Yarrow and Ironhorse, with a time to 100% absorption of 1 Human Lifetime.

Bankers Lament:

Who can forget the day I proudly posted The Plaza, as the first entry on our little RIP Hall Of Fame? Well, according to posts here and on BendBB, the $20.5MM note on The Plaza was sold by Umpqua Bank, possibly to make payroll, for $7MM.

First I'll note that statements about a "30%" return are slightly off the mark. This would have yielded Umpqua a tidy $26MM, give or take. No, the real return was -66%. Remember the post about how the Number 70, seemed to be popping up more than normal? This one is another close call.

I will say right now, that you should go have a look at the Plaza units, and offer 30 cents on the dollar. Those are going to be some nice rentals. And at $120/sf, they might even pencil, if you defer maintenance, and really gouge renters on their deposits. Right Buster?

In addition to Umpqua's shellacking, CACB posted their "dismal" results for Q4. Someone posted rather extensive financial highlights in the comments. Here are some interesting ratios & figures (2007 vs 2006, and the % chg):

Return on average total shareholders' equity (book) 7.42% 15.93% -53.4%
Delinquent >30 days to total loans 0.47% 0.09% 450.6%
Non-performing assets to total loans 2.23% 0.16% 1302.1%
Non-performing assets (5) 45,696 3,005 1420.7%
Net loan charge-offs (annualized) 0.33% 0.08% 308.5%

Yeah. I guess that 1302% INCREASE IN NON-PERFORMING ASSETS caught my eye. Seems like a uncomfortable trend? I don't know, maybe I'm just alarmist. Although they also noted this about their Developer Loans:

As background, this portfolio represents loans made to developers for the purpose of acquiring raw land and/or for the subsequent development of residential lots. The nationwide downturn in real estate has slowed lot and home sales within the Company's markets. This has impacted certain developers by lengthening the marketing period of their projects and negatively affecting borrower liquidity and collateral values. Accordingly, at December 31, 2007, those land development loans adversely rated through our internal risk-rating process totaled approximately $151 million or about 48% of the land development portfolio. Generally when a loan is adversely rated, an elevated level of credit reserve may be allocated based upon current facts and circumstances. In part, the higher provision for the fourth quarter represents the outcome of this ongoing process.

Huh. I guess Paul-doh is lucky he did not bet HALF OF ALL DEVELOPER LOANS IN BEND ARE BULLSHIT, cuz I would have lost. Only 48% of CACB loans to developers are in trouble. Still manageable, but I think CACB exec's might wanna keep an eye on that, cuz that could go seriously wrong. Not today, and not tomorrow. But someday. But these guys are sharp. Look at this analysis:

At December 31, 2007, Customer Relationship deposits(1) were up 7.2% compared to a year ago but decreased 2.9% on a linked-quarter basis. This decline in part reflects the end of the peak summer and fall tourism and construction season wherein deposit balances typically ease through the winter quarter. However, management also believes a general slowing in real estate activity has contributed to this trend, as deposits in real estate related business accounts show a reduction in average and end of period balances as compared to the prior year and quarter.

"Management believes a general slowdown in real estate" is adversely impacting deposits. Wow. They nailed that to the wall. But, it's no biggie, right now. But again, a trend to watch. This leads me to another topic:

SMEAR IT OUT:

You ever notice that Elizabeth Taylor is always "smeared out". She's all fuzzy & big-tittied. She almost looks doable.

Well, of course she is horrible, which is why the Paparazzi never get her; a clear photograph would bust the lense. Same with Bend, the Horror That Is Bend RE, and Bend Media.

To the extent that they ARE even covering the RE meltdown (The biggest story in Bend history. Have I said that?), they are SMEARING OUT the facts as much as is possible to give us the Lizzy Taylor titty bang.

The Smear Across Time:
Unemployment? Well... it's realy not so bad, cuz it's WHERE IT WAS 5 YEARS AGO.

Smear Across Geography:
And unemployment in Deschutes, Crook, Jefferson, Baker, Wallowa counties when mixed with Uzbekistan is at a comforting 8%.

Right. When we can count on The Bulletin to cover things, they are SMEARING them out to an almost ridiculous degree. WHY? Of course, because if you average in ANYTHING that occurred in 2004-2006, it drags everything up. If you smear it across many counties, or even better, the entire Northwest, it's impossible to figure out how Bend is actually doing.

And after all, we are MORONS who can't scratch our way out of a wet paper sack, at least according to the Bulletin.

Affordable Home In Bend:

This one is classic.

Now, first I'll say that this place needs affordable homes. And on the face of it, the Wednesday Bulletin article, "Low-cost houses in Bend's future" looks good for Bend's affordability problem. But is it affordable, or is it another "Eagle's Landing" maneuver, where prices are lowered, but the PRODUCT YOU'RE GETTING is also dramatically downsized? Buster say:

"Work Force Housing", somebody smells federal work projects coming, note the word "Force", they say no federal aid will be needed, but the "Work" will be Federal, and the projects forced, but is this enough to rescue the City of Bend.

I also got this distinct feeling as well. This is LABORER SHIT SHACK HOUSING. My Lord, they even interviewed housing development expert & Cessna exec Doug Oliver regarding this:


Cessna spokesman Doug Oliver said he tended to agree. Oliver said he's not familiar with the Mirada project specifically, but the consensus at Cessna's Witchita, Kan., headquarters is that its Bend plant is destined for growth in its work force, and anything that makes it easier to attract workers from outside the area, if that becomes necessary, will help its future here.

This is just awesome! Classic Bulletin-fueled insanity. Some shithole patch of scrub has been downgraded to Crap Shack Development, so David Fisher IMMEDIATELY runs out to the airport to blow.... errr, uh, interview any Cessna exec he can get his lips on. Their response?


"I don't know shit about this, but the mothership is 100% for stuff that makes us money, including the reclamation of energy from crap, plowing over foreclosed land, cross-breeding alien monkeys with humans, green energy garbage cans, and porno's where chicks go ass to ass on giant dildos like Jennifer Connelly did in Requiem For A Dream. That is the sum total of our knowledge about this issue."

Good job, David Fisher.

Econo-Rocket RETURNS... WITH A VENGENCE!

BEM, smart dude extraordinaire, has just checked in with this nugg:

CACB:

As background, this portfolio represents loans made to developers for the purpose of acquiring raw land and/or for the subsequent development of residential lots. The nationwide downturn in real estate has slowed lot and home sales within the Company's markets. This has impacted certain developers by lengthening the marketing period of their projects and negatively affecting borrower liquidity and collateral values.

"Nationwide downturn." Yeah, right. In other words, "beyond our control," "out of our hands," "couldn't see it coming." Someone at BOTC's been talking to the lawyers...

OK, back to reality. What seemed more likely in 2005, mass hysteria aside:

Option A: that an isolated, small town with no significant economic base except homebuilding and tourism, over 100 miles from any Interstate, over 100 miles from any city with over 100,000 population, over 100 miles from any 4-year college, surrounded on three sides by hundreds of miles of open land, with a population topping 70,000 and a median household income of under $50,000, can sustain indefinitely a median home price of close to half a million dollars, and a property price runup of over 100% in five years is based on fundamental economic strength and is a trend expected to continue into the foreseeable future.

Option B: that when there's been a property runup of over 100% in five years and the median home price approaches $500,000 in a community as described above, a massive speculative bubble has been formed and asset values are unstable; a major devaluation of property prices is therefore expected.

2 things. First this gels with the short thread about Half, OR. If you've never been there, it is one of the more bleak-ass near-ghost towns at The End Of A One-Way Street. If you're looking for others, WALK OUTSIDE. Bend is The Premiere ONE WAY TOWN. People coming here, typically turn around 180 degrees when it's time to go. Typical of places with this characteristic is a 100% DISSIPATION BASED ECONOMY. Fairbanks, AK is such a place. Skagway AK is another. Walk about 100 yards beyond the TOURIST SHMEAR, and you find NOTHING. These sorts of places are hollowed out, gutted communities, filled with borderline catatonic inhabitants going out of their minds.

You can closely figure out THE BUST of such places by going to a local Wal-Mart: They bust the hardest when the auto department is FULL OF GASOLINE ADDITIVES. Why? These places are 100% dissipation economies that ARE EXPENSIVE TO GET TO, AND TO ADD INSULT TO INJURY, IT'S EVEN MORE COSTLY TO LEAVE THEM. Bend is 100% dependent on Cheap Gas, but with oil at $100/bbl, we are dead meat. Namely Bachelor is DEAD. Notice there has been NO MENTION about Bachelor in the Bulletin this year. Why? Of course, Bachelor has busted as hard or harder than RE.

Second, there is an EXTREMELY well-written opinion piece in todays Bulletin, that made me speculate that I have AGAIN, identified who BEM really is. So I'll end this weeks post, with this incredibly smart piece about Bends decline, where the words "Motherfucker" and "smelly cunt" are not even used once:

Bend’s short-sighted planning will have far-reaching effects
By Alistair Paterson / Bulletin guest columnist
Published: January 26. 2008 5:00AM PST

As a transplant to Bend from Kauai, Hawaii, I am struck by the similarities between the two communities. Both are about the same size, have approximately the same number of people and face the same growing pains and challenges, i.e. a rapidly expanding population base and an infrastructure struggling to keep pace with it. Additionally, they pride themselves on their natural beauty and their numerous outdoor athletic activities. Indeed, the prose in their respective tourist publications is so similar one might easily suppose it’s generated from the same source.

What puzzles me is why these wonderful places are so willing to surrender all the qualities that made them so special. There’s still hope that Kauai may retain some of its rural appeal, but Bend, based on its recent past, appears committed to a never-ending stream of new “community” housing developments. Even the most casual observer cannot help but note the large number of cheaply constructed tenement-style row houses that will certainly deteriorate into the slums of the future.

Somehow, developers have convinced the powers that be that these poorly conceived communities serve Bend’s best interest. While the real estate market was booming, their heavily promoted product was quickly snapped up by a naive audience of buyers easily persuaded that this would be their last chance to jump aboard the real estate express. With the continuing downward spiral of the market, however, these same developers are being forced to significantly discount their product. The result is that they cut even more corners in the building process and subsequently market the homes for substantially less money than they persuaded buyers to pay for them over the past few years. Potential buyers would have been well advised to remember the adage “the bitterness of poor quality remains long after the sweetness of low price has disappeared.”

The situation has deteriorated so dramatically that across the nation Bend is perceived as having been vastly overbuilt and on an inventory versus population ratio, the amount of unsold homes on the market is among the highest in the country. It’s well past due that the overactive promotional glands of the visitor’s bureau, the chamber of commerce and the City Council be tempered by these facts. Any more development is not only ill-advised but practically suicidal, at least until current inventory levels have been significantly reduced and infrastructure improvements catch up with the recent population explosion. To even consider allowing Juniper Ridge to proceed under the current conditions is essentially nothing short of criminal.

Yes — planning for future growth is prudent and appropriate, but it’s also essential that the city take off its rose-colored glasses and accept the reality that Bend has a crisis on its hands. The visitor’s bureau spends $250,000 on its most recent advertising campaign but ignores the fact that, thanks to this thoughtless development frenzy, there is no longer even an attractive approach to the city. Anyone driving into Bend — according to current promotional materials the land of blue skies, powdery snow, elegant fare, snow angels and sleigh rides — will instead face clogged roads, urban sprawl, commercial strip malls, enormous billboards, a downtown with the worst festive lighting display of any resort area, and a city sharply divided between the haves and the have-nots.

In more than 30 years of general real estate, I’ve never observed such a lovely community with so many red flags waving at the same time. The current proliferation of gated communities is one of the first signs of a city in crisis, as these only serve to further polarize and divide a community that is increasingly losing all sense of its original appeal and ambiance. I know the people who live in these enclaves will object to this description, but it’s quickly obvious that the vast majority of their residents are recent transplants who escaped to Bend only to work toward the destruction of everything that drew me here originally. If indeed the tourist bureau’s promotional material is to be believed, why are gated areas a requisite at all?

The impact of such short-sighted planning coupled with a nationwide real estate crunch will have far-reaching effects for the city of Bend. I believe it will be at least four years before the median real estate prices return to those of 2006. It’s vital to remember that sooner or later, you reap what you sow, and if there is not an immediate perspective adjustment at every level of planning and promotion, then the only thing requiring more money will be a minor name change and new entry signage stating “Welcome to Bend — a gorgeous little community until greed took the lead.”

Alistair Paterson lives in Bend.




516 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 516   Newer›   Newest»
bruce said...

Sooner or later, you reap what you sow.

Truth.

Throw me some ideas about how to save this place somehow.

First--back off on JR, and build the reserve fund. Don't issue another $5M in muni bonds, and instead try to work our way out of this mess by being frugal.

BENDBUST said...

Good post homer, just the facts, no pussy pic's, could use a little fuck and smelly cunt.

Do you really think that Alistar is BEM? This person talks like one of us, hell everyone of the points is right off this site going back over a year.

A good move for the BULL, let's hope people read it, all the good stuff, just like I have said a 1,000 times here, ....

"What ye sow, so shall thou reap"

"We have me the enemy and he is US" ( All of Bend are are greedy Parasites )

Good shit, and even better because the BULL printed.

Yes, the recession started last year, and definitely Bend is in the beginning of a depression.

You didn't mention the 36% increase in un-employment, but I agree they averaged it in all county's.

Alistar nailed the PR/Marketing hard, hell the other day when Juniper-Ridge was having trouble, city-hall said "IT was just a PR problem, hire more PR".

The only disagreement I have with the story is the Developers didn't sway city-hall, and city-staff they are developer's. Virtually everyone is in this greedy town saw themselves as Real Estate tycoons, and went with the program. There was NO need to sway them, its all been "What can I do with taxpayer money to improve the value of MY real estate holdings".

Then entire reason that SDC's were 'deferred' was the old GM argument, what is good for Hollern ( Brooks ) is good for ALL of us.

Now its blame game, look on the comments this week on who the biggest event promoter in Bend is you have the Source saying its c3events, and Bulletin denying involvement, nobody wants to be accountable for the 'Bend-Brand'. The problem is DVA/VCB still has a HUGE 2008 budget to BRAND BEND AS 'THE BRAND'.

Brand of what? A desert island that takes the longest time to drive to walmart in terms of traffic congestion?? The city with the highest ratio of beggar to customer in the nation in a Walmart parking lot???

PR/Marketing is in a awful state. How do they market and overbuilt and oversold product?? There is still this "Bend is Aspen" flavor even today.

BEM is right, its going to be "Who could have seen it coming", all on the advice of lawyers.

I don't think BEM is alistar, to me Alistar sounds like a 'progressive' like bruce.

I don't think Alistar is one of the regulars here, but he sure in the hell quoted 99% of our recurring themes about Bend.

I completely agree, the depression in Bend has started.

Review, I have printed it many times...

A recession is when your neighbor doesn't have a job.

A depression is when YOU don't have a job.

The chickens in Bend are coming home to roost.

Stop the Spending. Stop the boon-doggle's. Terminate ALL PR budgets. Audit the city, and freeze all spending. Terminate the PR people before the cops, because we're going to need those cops, because crime will sky-rocket.

Sadly Chamber of Commerce ( good old boyz ) need to get involved, and take all of city-staff and city-hall to the woodshed for a good beating. Perhaps a few will resign,

For us citizens to get the city of bend books, and get them fixed, it will be as hard as it is for the new board at INN7thMTN, its NOT in Friedmans interest for the taxpayer to look at the city-hall books.

There has got to be someone in this city that cares? Certainly Duncan cares. I care, because all along to me its been the crime issue, I knew when the depression hits this town is going to get ugly, and quick.

Note, none of this had to happen, the citizenry could have gotten involved and forced city-hall to cut the budget of all non-essential spending.

bruce said...

Re: imothy said...
You can't re-inflate a souffle.

There is no avoiding pain. The two remaining forces in Bend are:

1) Those who want to have the crash hard and soon and get it over with.

vs.

2) Those who have "just one more" big deal they want to do so they can save their asses.

So let's just get it over with.

The time for one more big deal was last spring. This spring we better pull in the reins and take a really hard look at spending.

Spend the money on cops instead f PR, for a start.

Is there anything we can do about all those lost SDC's? Probably not.

Start billing water on actual usage, with no minimum.

BENDBUST said...

Throw me some ideas about how to save this place somehow.

*

We have to KILL all non-essential spending ASAP.

That means all feel-good PR, all events, no more subsidized ( permanently deferred SDC's, ... ).

Too many people in this town are on the PR dole, this alone will help.

Yes, its going to be sad to see all our favorite PR firms ( there are dozens ) die, but so what, its OVER.

Kill Juniper-Ridge, tell Les Schwab that the city will not subsidize, NO corporate welfare for Dick Brogman.

Stop all Knife-River projects, and put ALL debt to them ( $5M bond ), ... on a payment program, and let them sell their dump-trucks for 10 cents on the dollar. Its not the taxpayers business to float Knife-River during the Bend Depression.

There's a lot of shit bruce, first step is to get the current budge in expense format and start black-marking all non-essentials.

Then we need to get the backing of Chamber-of-Commerce, FUCK EDCO, there just PR whores.

The problem is Bend businessmen are out of the loop, and the PR whores are running the show.

No direct payment or indirect to the SORE or BULL. Period. NONE.

*

The people running this city will play the punish the taxpayer game, terminate cops, and make it hard for citizenry, so they beg for tax increases to keep the PR budget. Fuck that SHIT. Kill ALL the PR & EVENTS today and ALL other non-essential spending.

This is NOT a fucking resort town. It doesn't have to become a ghost-town ran by criminal thugs.

BENDBUST said...

Is there anything we can do about all those lost SDC's? Probably not.

*

Bullshit bruce, if I were king in this town I would go after Sebastian & Hollern and MAKE them pay.

There's no reason you can't apply a special assessment. Its quite clear that the folks running this town were in criminal collusion with developers to defer SDC's, we bring in courts or NEW government and we make Hollern, Bauhofer, Sebastian PAY.

Anonymous said...

Once ALL PR money in Bend from taxpayer to ALL PR whores in Bend are terminated overnight you'll have a new city.

Because it will be in no ones interest to do anything, but the right thing.

Bend is broke, we have to CUT spending and big, because at this point if we continue the PR spending, we'll have to borrow, and we'll never climb out of debt, and then bankruptcy will be certain.

BENDBUST said...

HOW TO FIX THE SDC problem

Going back to 2002 to all homes, and all homes NOT sold they get a lien that say's on the tax bill,

Dear Home-Owner and or developer it appears that you should have been charged an SDC of $60k, but where only charged $12k, thus a $48k lien has been placed on your property.

Thanks for your time.

**

p.s. FROM NOW forward every building permit in Bend for new construction is $60k, hell you don't even have to have a building moratorium, you just have to start making people pay the actual cost.

Anonymous said...

There is no avoiding pain. The two remaining forces in Bend are:

1) Those who want to have the crash hard and soon and get it over with.

[ It doesn't have to be hard. If we just DEMAND the problem be fixed, and the problem is spending is out of control. ]


2) Those who have "just one more" big deal they want to do so they can save their asses

[ It's over, if you didn't SELL your shit by 2005, your FUCKED. No more deals, and no more subsidy of DEAL MAKERS. ]

Anonymous said...

Alistair Paterson is 58 and has lived in Hawaii, Oregon, and Colorado. For $40 bucks you can purchase more details on him on ussearch.com (scary as hell how much people can find about us online.)

http://www.ussearch.com/consumer/tsrflow/product.do?adID=10002101&searchtab=people&pid=3164&searchPerson=001925865538&searchFName=Alistair&searchMName=J&searchLName=Paterson&searchCity=Hanalei&searchState=HI&searchApproxAge=58&searchStateJurisdiction=HI&searchGender=58&searchZip=96714-1491&vid=cfc&searchAgentNotes=PREVIEW-CFC

Anonymous said...

Alistair Paterson is 58 and has lived in Hawaii, Oregon, and Colorado

>>>>>>>

I think the point is he's not one of us,

Sounds like the typical migration, HI, CO, ... OR

Sounds like a downwardly economically disabled retiree.

The boomer looking for the best deal, a classic case of the BEND sucker that got sold the BILL of GOODS.

I hate to say this, but there should be a bunch of boomers engage in a class action lawsuit, because its quite clear that the city ( dva/vcb ) brought them all here on false pretenses.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Good shit, and even better because the BULL printed.

No shit! Whadup with that? Bought And Paid For Whores at the Bulletin won't write or print it, so they hire it out for NADA DOLLARS.

And this guy write better than any BULL writer.

timothy said...

Stopping the goddamned PR is going to be rough. The impulse will be to spend MORE on PR.

The town is hurting and it knows it's hurting, but it won't admit it's hurting because that's bad PR. It doesn't want to pay its own way, so the only choice is to try to take money out of the pockets of Californians, New Yorkers, and foreigners.

You watch. The worse we get, the more PR money we'll spend. You say we can stop it, but who can? Oldtimers? Newbies? What coalitions can we put together against a bunch of people who are used to running things?

You try to take any medicine and you'll be sacrificed. This town won't take medicine. It thinks it's too good for medicine.

This town DOES have to crash hard because there's no way to get money back that's been wasted and misallocated.

Anonymous said...

And this guy write better than any BULL writer.

*

You get what you pay for, and at the BULL there ain't much, you know they're hurting.

My summer prediction this past summer was layoff's by xmas, we haven't heard anything, but classic BULL is only report nice happy endings.

Certainly the BULL-fucker's have their finger in the air. Maybe its the fact that Friedman's problem can't get any worse??

Let's be honest, advertisers going to CUT.

I cut all my advertising back in September. I say the recession started in May 07, by Sep I knew it was the worst I have seen since 911. I cut ALL my non-essential spending.

The BULL must be seeing some significant drop by now.

A BULL writer what an oxymoron. 90% of the time they print verbatim press releases. The rest of the time generic copy that can go to all dozens of their 'family rags'.

They probably have 1 or 2 people tops assigned to write original copy for all twelves of their papers.

Look at the SORE, all they have is HBM part-time.

Alistar said it like it is, and there are probably a TON of retirees that got sucked into the black-hole of Bend, that are pissed.

It's NOT fucking rocket science, everything we state here is obvious, unless your a city of bend welfare whore. Which seems to be like 80% of this town.

These poor retirees, like alistar, going from HI, to CO, to OR, he bought a house, in 2005, and now its worth 30% on the dollar, he can't move anymore.

What the fuck is the city doing?? Selling this place as a low income tenement shack, he see's it coming, and know if something is NOT done, he's fucked.

Imagine being 58, and losing ALL equity, remember they all borrow to buy, so 30% on the dollar means NO down-payment to move on, ah the 401K, you need that for food in Bend.

My guess is the BULL is getting a 100 letters a day like this.

Note there will be a BIG fucking class action lawsuit by all these geezers who got FUCKED by the city of Bend promoting this place as the holy-grail.

Again, why I want the promotion shutdown, they didn't DO IT IN MY NAME.

Fucking Developers they over-sold this place, and now there is only going to be PAIN.

timothy said...

The Bulletin still runs the "What's Going Up" features that tell you what marvelous building is going on. I won't be satisfied until there are "What's Coming Down" features that talk about massive real estate defaults and failures.

The Bulletin doesn't even PRETEND to be covering real estate anymore. It was so fun to cover it when it was all bright and shiny. But now, no one wants to hear about it, do they?

timothy said...

>>The BULL must be seeing some significant drop by now.

Yes probably for most businesses, but no for Real Estate. 20 pages again today. And it'll be 28 again (as it was most of last year on Saturdays) once the inventory explodes in March.

Anonymous said...

You watch. The worse we get, the more PR money we'll spend. You say we can stop it, but who can? Oldtimers? Newbies? What coalitions can we put together against a bunch of people who are used to running things?

*

I talk to a lot of people, people who have been in politics for +40 years in this town.

This is what they say, The folks running city hall right now are all a bunch of naive dumb-fucking asshole morons.

The old timers ( chamber of commerce ) let these MORONS take over, just like DOT-COM gave all the money to kids who said bricks & mortar are over.

The PR machine of BEND, and remember its ONLY PR, and these folks that RUN BEND are ONLY PR.

The old-timers that have the MONEY in this town, will be buying everything in a few years for pennys on the dollar. The next group of politicians will be owned by the future elite old buzzards that have all the money.

I concur in a perfect world I have said what needs to be done.

But I have also said that "BEND will react Emotionally", thus there will be NO reasoning. The smart politicians will portray themselves as victims "Who saw it coming",...

We who KNOW, WE WHO OWN OUR OWN FUCKING BUSINESSES KNOW, that in order to FIX bend.

YOU must KILL all the PR and Consulting.

Will it happen?? Hell NO, because nobody even goes to city-council meetings except developers.

Anonymous said...

Yes probably for most businesses, but no for Real Estate.

*

The money for marketing Bend RE, is going to NIL, because nothing is selling.

Realtors can't keep putting money into a business that doesn't exit.

I think most likely what your really seeing, is every week the BULL keeps reducing prices on column inches to their favorites like Coldwell, ... deals are made, ... at some point its good money going down the rat-hole.

Anonymous said...

It doesn't want to pay its own way, so the only choice is to try to take money out of the pockets of Californians, New Yorkers, and foreigners.

*

At some point someone will bitch slap these assumptions, the foreigners don't want to come to a crime infested shithole.

The New Yorkers don't need to, and the calis are so fucking under-water, ...

Who in the HELL are they marketing too??

They don't know either. This is why the Bend as Brand entire PR machine is fucked. We here all know its good taxpayer treasure going down the rat-hole. Somebody will speak-up.

We just need dozens of people to show up at council meetings.

Trouble of course like Nazi Germany, is NOBODY is going to speak-up in Bend, because everyone is a Nazi on the payroll.

bruce said...

Re: Then we need to get the backing of Chamber-of-Commerce

Interesting fact--I sat next to the head of the CHamber at the last CC meeting, and he seemed to be as unhappy as I was over the spending. He was making notes of the millions of dollars going out. We talked a bit, enough that I am curious about talking to him further. Pure chance--I had no clue who he was when I sat down. But we were both front and center.

Anonymous said...

Luke the good-old boyz are our only hope.

They are the ONLY people here for the longterm.

Alistar, Kuratek, YOU, and probably Homer will be long gone in five years. BEM will stay around and I'll not go anywhere.

The good ol boyz got pushed out by the fast talking PR bunny's, and WHO brought them in and PAID for them??

Mike Hollern. They called it "SMART GROWTH".

Well this group has been running Bend for over six years now, and do they look smart??

Mike Hollern should pay us back for ALL the city loss he created in his desire to force NWXC up our ass, which is WHY we need to make him pay retroactive SDC's.

p.s. google "smart growth", and bend, learn about how hollern put together PR dog&pony shows years ago at the high-desert museum, and created all these beautiful people running bend, ...

Mike Fucking Hollern, aka Boss-Hogg-Hollern, what you sow, you will reap.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I won't be satisfied until there are "What's Coming Down" features that talk about massive real estate defaults and failures.

I trust Timmy, you know not to hold your breath...

Anonymous said...

I sat next to the head of the CHamber at the last CC meeting, and he seemed to be as unhappy as I was over the spending.

*

Yes, bruce, your learning Hollern put together this PR machine to get approval for his PROJECTS, and he shoved them up our ass for BILLIONS of dollars of deferred SDC.

These dog&pony "PR BUNNY SLUTS" that HOLLERN put in city-hall, like Abernethy, ... Friedman, his boy suck my dick and I'll give you all the HOA fee's on the PLANET.

So HOLLERN loads city-hall in his own image "SMART GROWTH", the old-guard Chamber-of-Commerce just throws up its hands, and lets the charade take place, trouble is NOW the ship is sinking, and NOW the good old-boyz are taking notes.

p.s. because HOLLERN loaded city-hall with PR bunnys, this is all they KNOW PR & Consulting, so they use city taxpayer money to enrich all their buddy's, and you get bend, all was fine when Hollern was selling his shit-shacks, and now all is fucked.

Bend Economy Man said...

Pine Nursery sports fields need to go on the R.I.P. list.

Duncan McGeary said...

Umpqua Bank's central Oregon ventures. R.I.P.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

their heavily promoted product was quickly snapped up by a naive audience of buyers easily persuaded that this would be their last chance to jump aboard the real estate express.

Damn! Remember that? The PANIC THEM INTO BUYING Marketing Method? Wow. That is so weird.

It sounds SOOOOOO idiotic today.

Bend Economy Man said...

Well now that they're pinning the blame for the Bend bust on the "national real estate downturn," expect the new pitch to be that Bend, with its amazing X, unique Y and unparalleled Z, will be first to recover from the slump, poised as it is to capture the retirement destination dollar of the wealthy Baby Boomer generation.

Jumping to the denouement here, but I think what's really going to take that popped souffle out of the oven and into the dog's bowl is the following:

Right now I think there's some more denial, even as the mass media report on the nation's economic troubles. But sooner or later the nation will have to address the question: how in the hell are the Baby Boomers supposed to retire in style now? If real estate takes a 30% haircut as some serious people are predicting, and 401(k) values get shot to shit in a recession, and the dollar continue to devalue (not to mention the insane debt levels of the average American) where are these 50/60/70-year-old Baby Boomers supposed to keep all their fabulous wealth?

It's one thing to be 30 and be say $70,000 in debt with student loans, credit cards, a car loan, etc. But how many Baby Boomers do you know who in the last 5 years have remodeled their homes, bought a dream car, motorcycle, boat or RV, bought a vacation home, got plastic surgery... among my relatives I've got all of those covered.

So anyway, medium-term prediction, after about 8 months of gloom look out for the "Baby Boomers--Busted" cover of Newsweek or Time.

timothy said...

>> So anyway, medium-term prediction, after about 8 months of gloom look out for the "Baby Boomers--Busted" cover of Newsweek or Time.

You might have missed it, but the Economist and WSJ and some wire stories have already done this. A recent study shows that boomers will bring DOWN the housing market as they move in with families, assisted living, and, in general, down-size.

They are outrageously unprepared to retire. They simply don't have enough wealth. Well, some of them do but as a group they are in deep deep trouble. You're right.

Duncan McGeary said...

"Right now I think there's some more denial, even as the mass media report on the nation's economic troubles. "
BEM

Denial and ignorance. I've had this conversation several times in the past month.

"I've just moved to Bend."

"Did you buy a house?"

"Yes, I bought a nice...blah,blah."

Me breaking in: "Did you think to wait? You might have saved a lot of money by waiting a while."

"Nah, I was good. I did so well selling my other house..."

So, there are still people wandering around who are apparently putting about as much thought into buying a house as buying toothpaste.

timothy said...

>>So, there are still people wandering around who are apparently putting about as much thought into buying a house as buying toothpaste.

There has never been a drop in the history of finance where there weren't people catching knives all the way down.

Anonymous said...

The real estate implosion in Bend will last longer and than many of our RE shills, financial experts or genius developers can fathom.

I have yet to see any of the RE circus barkers or genius developers even account for how much hidden inventory exists in Bend as they try and convince themselves, or anyone else, how long until things pick back up.

Let me make this a bit more concrete for those of you inclined to follow along.

I live on a street of newer homes in Bend - 22 of them to be exact, 6 of which are currently for sale and have been sitting for the usual year plus with no activity.

2 are currently off the market while the investors/developers refinance them. Apparently the owner/occupied mortgage fraud is a bit tougher to pull off if some crackerjack underwriter is smart enough to run a property search and comes back with an active MLS number.

Rest assured after the appropriate amount of seasoning they are coming right back on the market.

That makes 8 or 22 homes for sale on my street once things turn around - (2 hidden inventory)

But it gets better because 3 others on the street are currently rentals because after failing to sell they went the usual lets do anything to stem the bleeding until the market turns around.

That makes 11 of 22 for sale on my street once things turn around (5 hidden inventory)

But wait - it gets even better! 4 of the homes are occupied by small time builders who couldn't sell their last specs so they reluctantly moved into them. I know 3 or them want to sell once things turn and I haven't spoken to the fourth. He is a frumpy MF and you can probably ascertain why.

That makes 14 of 22 for sale on my street once things turn around (8 hidden inventory)

Lastly there is a couple who would desperately like to return to their in-migration state but gave up and yanked their home off the market. They've told me they'll relist once it looks better.

And finally, no really, this is the last one, their is one more home under construction that just broke ground 30 days ago and is now for sale. I'm guessing the builder just wants the construction draw and plans to stick the bank with it when they are done because, well, why else would you be that stupid.

So we've easily got 16 of 23 house (once they new spec finishes) in play on my street although it currently only looks like 6 of 22.

That my friends is fookin' problem no matter how you want to cook the books.

timothy said...

>>They've told me they'll relist once it looks better.

I've heard that over and over and over.

In my neighborhood, the first few times a For Sale sign came down, people automatically assumed the house sold. But no, the sellers just gave up. Now when a For Sale sign comes down, neighbors assume the seller gave up.

Boosters want to talk about buyers in waiting. There are some, but there are many more sellers in waiting.

Anonymous said...

Hey Bend Old Timers,

At what point in the recent history (since 1990 or so) did you realize that your town was being horribly and irrevocably BENT?

Just curious.

Anonymous said...

Bout the time Costco came in..95? Earnst was a good addition to the eastside, but the whole Forum Center sucks. So does the Old Mill and any building taller than 2 stories in downtown and the biggest lose was St. Clairs hardware. They are all eye sores and have ruined my skyline wilst drivin round town. Plus all those buildings so close to the road never let the sun melt the ice. Never did need a Home Depot or Lowes they just fed the developers. Parr was doin just fine. Since landing here in 78' and makin it thru the early 80's I am hopin for a huge avalanche to clear off the westside crap. Angry? Shit yes! I could write for hours on this subject and hope that 47,000 people leave Bend. Send the City Boyz down thru Boxcar. Where are the elk, deer and cougars going to live without feeding on your pet or flowers?
Uncle.

Duncan McGeary said...

For me, the beginning of the end was Shopko, in 1992.

Freddies came in around 1990, and that was sort of refreshing after a ten year drought. And at least -- at the time -- it was Oregon owned.

But after Shopko, it was one major chain after another.

Duncan McGeary said...

I'm not just anti chainstore just because I own a small business. It just seems like these store homogenize a place, dilute it, cheapen it somehow.

The whole atmosphere seemed to change; people had always tried to fit into the old western town, and suddenly we were like every other town with a Walmart, a Gap, a Star Bucks.

I heard a lady say in my store, "Finally, I can move to Bend because you're getting a" ....fill in the blank.

To me, she was saying, finally I can move to Bend because you're just like the place I moved from.

These new commercial outfits made no real effort to fill in the areas that needed upgrading, but simply stake out raw land on the edges of town and flattened them.

I remember how shocked I was that Target flattened all these acres without any effort to retain the natural terrain or trees. Or downtown renovations which were nothing more than bringing in the same faux Craftsman style that the Old Mill has.

No authenticity. No originality. No funkiness.

So...that's what offends me. And the idea of elbowing your way to cheap goods at Christmas like pigs to a trough is a mass market thing, too, mostly. So when I see people driving the exact same way, I have to think it's all part of the same 'get out of my way' mentality.

Duncan McGeary said...

I used to believe that people moved here to 'get away from it all.'

But that doesn't really seem to be true, anymore. They seem to prefer us to look like every other town. The excitement of Trader Joe's coming to town, for example, just mystified me.

It's a friggen chainstore! Is that why you moved to Bend?

I had a business neighbor (I've had so many over the years, you'll never figure out who I'm talking about) who moved into a little spot next door and announced that he was burned out, loved the small space, never wanted to get ambitious again.

Ten years later, he has joined the 'rat race' with a big store and employees and advertising.

I am actually offended when people tell me that they 'didn't know I was here', even though they've been in town for years. 28 years in the same spot, and this person didn't know I was here....for 3, 5, even 10 years. And it happens many times every day.

We could be anywhere U.S.A. as far as most of these people seem to care. So when I see a Sunset article that is about stores than are no older than 5 years old, I have to wonder who they talked to?

How about the 'real' Bend; the Pine Tavern, for instance. Or....Pegasus. Instead, we get McMenimens, which could be McDonalds for all that it is 'old' Bend.

Anonymous said...

That my friends is fookin' problem no matter how you want to cook the books.

*

That isn't a problem that's Bend, and we have a solution PR&Marketing all paid for by taxpayer.

Probably NOT a bad stat to suggest that 75% of all RE in Bend is dark-matter, sure 10% is explicit MLS, but 65% is dark matter.

Which goes back to population 20k, very soon.

Anonymous said...

At what point in the recent history (since 1990 or so) did you realize that your town was being horribly and irrevocably BENT?

*

1986 for me that's when I97 became a fucking parking lot.

My fondest years in Bend were 1983. That's when Bend was 'quaint'.

Yes, Costco out on 27th, and Freddy down south on I97, those were major turning points, especially in terms of traffic.

The saddest day? When we lost our downtown HW store.

Anonymous said...

McMenimens, which could be McDonalds for all that it is 'old' Bend.

*

In PDX mcMennamins is micky-d, but here in Bend mcMenn is a big deal, that oasis in back is really sweet with all the fires.

7 day week happy-hour 4-6 $3 burger $3 pint, that's the deal in town.

TJ is hot, good shit, good cheese, good olive oil, ... good frozen fish, For all these FUCKING WALMARTS & COSTCO for people who think sucking on a tailpipe is living, fucking TJ is some good stuff, if you know how to cook.

I love Newport, but honestly it sucks in terms of quality/price ratio, TJ is going to fucking kill Newport on some things like olive oil, cheese, meat, ... produce sucks at TJ.

Anonymous said...

Since Rhetorical questions are being asked I would like to ask one.

WHO IS GOING TO FIX BEND.

1.) old-timers

2.) RE-HO's, and their ilk

3.) Newbies

4.) courts

5.) Bend will be fucked for a long time

Please tell? Homer can you do one of those 'vote' blocks I suspect its #5 only because so much absentee ownership that everyone here assumes someone else will do it for them.

bruce said...

Wish I could insert a pic here, but alas only link.

Is this what half of Bend, the half that lives outside a gate, is going to be eating next year?

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2092/2221749191_acef3382cf.jpg

Bend Economy Man said...

At what point in the recent history (since 1990 or so) did you realize that your town was being horribly and irrevocably BENT?

Probably the construction of the factory outlet malls on south 97. I think that was early '90s. It just seemed like such an alien concept to have a giant parking lot surrounded by a horseshoe of stores. I'd been to factory outlet malls in California and it seemed innovative there, but it seemed out of place in a town where the parking lot might be covered with snow and ice 5 months of the year.


Parking somewhere and browsing around stores wasn't really something my parents, I or my friends or their parents did. We'd park in front of the store we wanted to go to and go inside and buy what we came there to buy, then left. No one hung out at the mall. People might hang out downtown at Coffee & Co., but locals really didn't stroll around downtown looking in the shops. In other words, typically when Bendites (or at least the Bendites I knew) went shopping, they knew ahead of time what store they were going to and what they wanted, rather than shopping as a browsing / recreational activity.

bruce said...

BTW, please go o http://www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/city_council_members/city_council_s_goals.html and read some of the Council Retreat stuff. Goal setting for 2008.

Give me some good goals. My first to Mayor Abernethy is going to be more transparency, be very specific about Executive Sessions. Or the Ethics Commission will be paying a visit very soon.

Any other suggestions?

bruce said...

FYI: The Retreat

City of Bend
EXPECTATIONS EXERCISE
Preparation for the 2008 City Council Goal Setting Retreat
Goal
In an effort to improve the relationships and communication between the City Council and City staff, the goal of this exercise is to ascertain the expectations that the City Council has for staff and vice versa in an effort to clarify the roles, expectations, and responsibilities of each group.

Timeline
City Councilors and City Management Staff will complete the attached survey and return it to Eric King by Wednesday January 25, 2008. The survey responses will then be summarized by our retreat facilitator for discussion at the City Council Goal Setting Retreat to inform a discussion about roles, responsibilities, and expectations.

Outcome
In an effort to strengthen relationships between City Council and City staff it is imperative that the expectations of both parties are clear. This exercise has been compiled in preparation for the City Council Goal Setting Retreat, which will have time allotted for team building with Council and Staff. This exercise provides the City Council and staff an opportunity to define a baseline from which both groups can operate together as a team.
The following items will be measured:
􀂃 Expectations that Elected Officials have of Staff (Council)
o Will be asked to rate (scale 1-5) how well the expectation is currently being executed
􀂃 Expectations that Staff have of Elected Officials (Staff)
o Will be asked to rate (scale 1-5) how well the expectation is currently being executed
Expectations Scale
(1) Below expectation
(2) somewhat below expectation
(3) somewhat meeting expectation
(4) meeting expectation
(5) Exceeding expectation

Followed by a 6-page questionaire.

bruce said...

OK, this is so fucking rich I have to share it. It's from the last CC Retreat on Dec. 6, 2006. Six days before the infamous Les Schwab Gunfight at the OK It's Yours Corral:

"Mayor Friedman believes that a goal should be added to address Juniper Ridge. Council must decide how to use the funds that come from this project. It could be reinvested in Juniper Ridge or used to adress some of the curent needs."

Funds that come from this $12M and counting money hole of a project?

Oh, I guess it's only $9M now that LS actually paid up. That's worth 350 jobs, right? How much per job is that? Only about $25,000. It will pay for itself in no time.

How, again?

bruce said...

With the benefit of hindsight, this whole fucking thing is rich.

The Dec. 6, 2006 Council Retreat Summary: http://www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/city_council_members/docs/12_06_2006_Counil_Retreat_Summary_Minutes.pdf

How to pay for infrastructure is a big problem? Duh? Ever think of charging realistic SDC's during the boom when it could be done?

And they are talking about how we need more cops. And now we are so strapped cops are getting less funding...

JIT said...

From PaulDoh:

First I'll note that statements about a "30%" return are slightly off the mark. This would have yielded Umpqua a tidy $26MM, give or take. No, the real return was -66%.

Holy crap. Does this mean that all those terrific returns my broker has been getting on the financial stocks over the last quarter are losses?

It was meant as sarcasm. Although it probably wasn't good sarcasm if the master , PaulDoh, didn't recognize it.

JIT

Anonymous said...

Ever think of charging realistic SDC's during the boom when it could be done?

And they are talking about how we need more cops.

*

It would get sticky if SDC's were used to fund the general, .e.g. go straight to DVA/VCB to keep the wine flowing.

NO, SDC's are for sewer, water, flood, parks, and storm. That's IT bruce-pussy SDC's revenue is not for smelly-cunt progressive causes.

To date Bend ( 2003->2006 ) is exactly $2B short of SDC's, exactly how much Hollern profited ( on his good bets, lets NOT talk about Hollerns bad bets ).

Brasada, Yarrow, all that crap up north, home to deer-mice, that there be Bends SDC's.

Anonymous said...

City of Bend
EXPECTATIONS EXERCISE
Preparation for the 2008 City Council Goal Setting Retreat
Goal

*

Bend's City Council and City Staff Going on Retreat
Bend, Or (c) The Bulletin, January 27, 2008

Six weeks at the Nevada "Mustang Ranch". Bend's Abernethy said "We have been through a lot lately, and everyone staff and council need a break".

Chris Telfer Councilor asks "Given that we'll all be in Nevada for six weeks, who will be running Bend?"

These are all good questions. Mike Hollern president and founder of the Bend Citizen equality alliance personally contributer $100 of his own money to the retreat fund. The cost of send 120 city staff and council to "Mustang Ranch" is estimated to cost $5,000/week per participant. The sum of $3.6M. Chamber of Commerce inquired the rationality of spending that kind of money while Bend was in a depression.

Councilor Friedman reminded everyone that council and staff had been through hell lately, and that the cost of the retreat would cost no one any money, as $3.6M was coming from the off budget sale of Juniper Ridge to Les Schwab.

We at the Bend Bulletin, 100% feel that these people City Council & Staff deserve a getaway to focus on city business, and there is no better place in than Mustang Ranch.

Anonymous said...

My first to Mayor Abernethy is going to be more transparency, be very specific about Executive Sessions. Or the Ethics Commission will be paying a visit very soon.

Any other suggestions?

*

If you must give suggestions to Abernethy, suggest that given he has NOT had a real job in his working life, that he resign from Politics like Hummel, and get a job in the private sector to balance his perspective on the real world.

timothy said...

http://www.nysun.com/article/70126

Manhattan is the last RE market standing. Miami is pitching to New Yorkers hard. Are our PR people in there throwing elbows, or are we too scared of the Miami mafia?

Anonymous said...

In other words, typically when Bendites went shopping, they knew ahead of time what store they were going to and what they wanted, rather than shopping as a recreational activity.

*

There is no doubt that in this town the "BEND BRAND", marketed with taxpayer dollars an sold to the world, that the Bend they're selling is not special, or exceptional, its the same old, ...

Which is why C3, Source, DVA/VCB, ... have dozens of 'events' every month all year round here in Bend to attract a stream of tourists, who will be sold time-share condos.

Given that most of these 'moron tourists' are from hamster-cages down in California, spending their free-time at the "Mall" is quite normal. From a developer/builder point of view Malls are max profit in min space.

Today there are 'Malls' all over Bend, and like Sacramento they'll soon all be quite empty.

They call all this traffic and "Mall Progress" progress, no wonder the City Council & Staff need to go to 'retreats' all this planning must be exhausting.

Anonymous said...

No bites, but I hear a lot of complaints about TJ & McMennamins,

But of all the 100's if NOT 1,000's of STUPID fucking chain-stores in Bend 99% of which I'll NEVER go in,...

TJ sells stuff that I want to buy, in bulk and its generally stuff of the highest quality, and lowest price,

Deschutes has GONE TO COMPLETE fucking hell, back in the 1980's Dechutes was the BEST-BREW pub in Oregon, best food, and great beer. Today its pissed off employees, and inconsistent food with high prices, and small quantity's. Bend Brewing sucks, Silver Moon is ok, for the $6 geri, but once they raise it to ten, who will go??

TJ has a hell of a good product/service, top end product for low-end price. They're going to kill Rays, Safeway, and Newport. Sadly putting it out there in that shitty strip-mall with the traffic from hell "GI JOES", that sucks.

McMennamins in Bend is nice you can stroll around, they have 1/2 dozen areas, a nice movie theater generally the music is always free, happy-hour everyday. Better food than the average mcMennamins.

To me TJ & McMennamin, could stay and every other mall store in Bend can leave, even the REI here sucks, they don't have the selection of the I5 warehouses, so whats the point? Its just a small outlet store, and same for all these mall's in Bend, and all these stores, what are they really for? Big companys can sign big leases for five years because they have to be in the hot places, ..

Which is why City-Hall spends our money marketing Bend as the brand.

Do you all see the similarity of "BEND BRAND", and "SECOND LIFE", everyone in the corporate world has locations in "Second Life" for real money. Do they make money? Does Bend make money??

All this is about presence, marketing & pr creates its own need, and its own buzz, and its own groupies and cheerleaders.

Bend is 'second life' a virtual world, that doesn't exist, except for those stupid enough to have bought in, and moved here. Then they're fucked because once you change your money to Bend-Dollars you can't go back to real money. Your stuck here.


My solution to shutting "second life Bend" down is to kill ALL PR city-hall funding. That will cause all the cheerleaders to move on, then Bend will once again be like the 1983 Bend, where everyone is just living with what is, ...

Second Life is a computer 'game' you can exit, and enter, ... But Bend is a real life game, that destroy's retirement plans, and liquidates 401k's, you can enter Bend, but you can't leave. The people controlling the levers of 'second life bend', keep bringing in new suckers with taxpayer dollars. Eventually the result will be tens of thousand of angry dependents.

Anonymous said...

I don't know about you guys, but the Eagles' song "The Last Resort" is playing in my head. It could be about Bend today — although, ironically, it was written about LA. The last two lines are chlling:
"They call it paradise I don't know why
You call someplace paradise, kiss it goodbye"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsFf60VzGds

She heard about a place people were smilin'
They spoke about the red man's way, and how they loved the land
And they came from everywhere to the Great Divide
Seeking a place to stand or a place to hide

Down in the crowded bars, out for a good time,
Can't wait to tell you all, what it's like up there
And they called it paradise I don't know why
Somebody laid the mountains low while the town got high

Then the chilly winds blew down, Across the desert
through the canyons of the coast, to the Malibu
Where the pretty people play, hungry for power
to light their neon way and give them things to do

Some rich men came and raped the land,
Nobody caught 'em
Put up a bunch of ugly boxes, and Jesus, people bought 'em
And they called it paradise
The place to be, They watched the hazy sun, sinking in the sea

Who will provide the grand design?
What is yours and what is mine?
'Cause there is no more new frontier
We have got to make it here

We satisfy our endless needs and
justify our bloody deeds,
in the name of destiny and the name of God

And you can see them there, on Sunday morning
They stand up and sing about what it's like up there
They call it paradise I don't know why
You call someplace paradise, kiss it goodbye

dartagnan said...

The good ol boyz got pushed out by the fast talking PR bunny's, and WHO brought them in and PAID for them?? Mike Hollern. They called it "SMART GROWTH".

You're incredibly naive if you don't think Hollern is one of the GOBs. He's been here forever. The GOBs actually were the biggest advocates of breakneck, pedal-to-the-metal growth. Always have been. And The Bullshittin has always backed them, even in Bob Chandler's day and probably before that.

bruce said...

Re: NO, SDC's are for sewer, water, flood, parks, and storm. That's IT bruce-pussy SDC's revenue is not for smelly-cunt progressive causes.

Dumbfuck anonymouse, here is the comment you replied to: "How to pay for infrastructure is a big problem? Duh? Ever think of charging realistic SDC's during the boom when it could be done?"

Infrastructure, which is the same thing you rode me about. Water, sewer, storm, roads...

Parks has its own SDC, which was fairly well funded. Storm just got raised last year, finally, but the big guys like Old Mill are bitching about it and trying to get out of it. Just like the fuckers out at Tetherow trying to get out of paying for road improvements.

If you ever actually looked at the city budget you would learn a lot about the various SDC funds.

Anonymouse, please read the whole comment before mashing the keys with your index fingers.

Capische?

bruce said...

Re: You're incredibly naive if you don't think Hollern is one of the GOBs. He's been here forever. The GOBs actually were the biggest advocates of breakneck, pedal-to-the-metal growth. Always have been. And The Bullshittin has always backed them, even in Bob Chandler's day and probably before that.

That's been my take on it. The oldtimers were pushing growth long, long ago.

Maybe it got a little out of hand, but not many were complaining much at the top of the bubble.

When we first moved here, the bubble was nearing the top. February of 2005. Yes, I'm a fucking shortimer, which is why I don't get pissed when someone fills me in on Oregon history. I like it. I like to learn.

Anyway, we looked around for rentals because even then it was so much cheaper to rent than buy it was ridiculous. We made a deal, or so we thought, to get a one-year lease on a place on Kingston, above 14th. Up in the big trees, a short ride to Phils or the road loop north, perfect.

So we came by to pay the rent and deposit and the guy has brought a month-to-month lease, not the one-year we had insisted on. We bitched, he said we can sign the one-year later, he made a mistake. We had to make a trip back to Salt Lake one last time, so we did. Not with much trust, though.

Which was smart, because the dollar signs in his eyes asshole, thinking we were back in SLC, called us up two days later and said that he had decided to sell the house, he had suddenly gotten a chance at a great deal on another one, etc. etc.

Unbeknowenst to him we were still in town, as the weather was really nice and we were out exploring on our bikes and taking care of details like cell phones and utilities. And now thoroughly pissed off at his type of BS.

Within hours we had our money back and had torn up the lease. The guy didn't even show--he left his wife to feel our anger.

Scumbag.

It was our welcome to the Bend Bubble moment.

We found another place the next day, about the same price and closer to the river, so it all worked out. But it was a wakeup call. And we watched in wonder as the prices on the flyers we picked up just went up and up and up...

Knowing all the time there was no way in hell it could last.

bruce said...

O.C. '07 home-building hit 52-year low

An industry group reports 2007’s building permits for single-family homes and row houses dropped to the lowest level since at least 1955. (See history HERE based on data from the Construction Industry Research Board for 1967-2007; Security Pacific National Bank for 1946-1966, using a different method that slightly underestimated totals.)

Permits were issued for just 2,183 single-family homes in 2007, according to the Construction Industry Research Board, a Burbank-based industry center that tracks building permits statewide. That compares to a peak of more than 24,000 homes permitted in 1955 and down from 8,200 a decade ago. (See chart; click on it for bigger version!)

Total residential building permits, which includes homes plus apartments and condos in multi-story buildings, fell to a 14-year low in 2007 and the fifth-lowest number of permits since 1967. However, permits for apartments and condos in multi-story buildings hit a level not seen since 2004.

Irvine again led the county in new home construction, with 2,536 building permits in 2007, all but 230 of them for apartments or multi-story condo buildings. The city’s permit total is down from 3,530 units permitted in 2006. Anaheim and Orange issued the next largest numbers of permits: 875 in Anaheim and 826 in Orange, an increase for both cities.

Construction levels that boomed from the 1950s through the 1980s have tapered off in the past two decades as the county runs out of room to build. Homebuilders caught off-guard by the housing downturn also drastically cut production in the past 18 months to reduce their inventory of unsold homes.

The numbers show also that single-family home construction is dwindling as housing density rises in the county. The percentage of permits in the “single-family” category — consisting of detached homes and attached row houses, townhomes or side-by-side condominiums — fell from 94% of all residential construction in 1955 to 31% last year, the figures show.

Last year also marked the second consecutive year in which the estimated value of commercial and other non-residential construction ($1.98 billion) outpaced homebuilding ($1.79 billion.) The last time non-residential construction outpaced homebuilding prior to 2006 was in 1984, research board figures show.

Home remodeling also fell for a second straight year in 2007, dropping to an estimated value of $444 million, down from $515 million in 2006, the research board reported.

timothy said...

My kingdom for a Frys.

bruce said...

Re: My kingdom for a Frys.

I know--every time I go to Portland I make the pilgramage 20 miles south.

Anonymous said...

I am actually offended when people tell me that they 'didn't know I was here', even though they've been in town for years. 28 years in the same spot, and this person didn't know I was here....for 3, 5, even 10 years. And it happens many times every day.

It must be difficult having a chip on your shoulder like that.

Anonymous said...

Since landing here in 78' and makin it thru the early 80's I am hopin for a huge avalanche to clear off the westside crap. Angry? Shit yes! I could write for hours on this subject and hope that 47,000 people leave Bend.

This is some of the funniest shit I've read in a long time. This guy wants to tell 47,000 other people how to live their lives!

Anonymous said...

It must be difficult having a chip on your shoulder
**
This guy wants to tell 47,000 other people how to live..
**
Uh-o -- a punch-drunk koolaid drinker in our midst today. Brace yourselves for a flood of koolaid to spill over this blog.

Hey bud - if you don't like the opinions here, there's about 2 billion other blogs. C-ya!

dartagnan said...

bruce: "The oldtimers were pushing growth long, long ago. Maybe it got a little out of hand, but not many were complaining much at the top of the bubble."

Of course not. Why would they? They owned the land, the construction companies, the major local development companies, the real estate agencies, the title companies.

That's why I laugh when I hear somebody blaming our out-of-control growth on "those damn California newcomers." The damn California newcomers were just patsies too, paying ridiculously inflated prices for a piece of this bogus "paradise."

dartagnan said...

"Hey bud - if you don't like the opinions here, there's about 2 billion other blogs. C-ya!"

LOL! Yeah, that's right -- "We don't want to hear from anybody who disagrees with us! Get out of our private clubhouse! Nyaaah, nyaaah!"

Infantile.

Anonymous said...

Infantile.

I noticed that too. Some of the commenters here really like to dish it out but they don't like to hear any ideas that don't match their own.

Anonymous said...

Get out of our private clubhouse!
***
You sound like you're fresh off 1-5 from cali or you just bought a Bend shit-shack and want to feel good about yourself.

Just a guess.

dartagnan said...

And as I sit here watching the third mini-blizzard of the month come down I find myself asking, once again: "What the FUCK did I move here for???"

Actually I moved here more than 20 years ago because my wife and I had always wanted to live in a small town and Bend was a nice small town then. It's an overgrown, ugly, sprawling mess now ... with a shitty climate and no economic opportunity.

Not a hell of a lot going for it, in other words.

So why don't I move? As soon as the housing market picks up a little, I will.

dartagnan said...

Anon 1:29: Moved here 22 years ago, bought my shack then. Aside from that I have no money in Bend real estate. How about you?

Anonymous said...

Dartagnan --

22 years is a long time to suffer - why so long?

Where you gonna go?

Dr.Pepper said...

Dart,
Thanks..Luv the get out of our private clubhouse.Guess I should get a handle (name) so ya have someone to call out once in a while..So I will use my CB handle, Dr.Pepper.
What color is your koolaide, mines brown.
Only been perusing here for a few months..but the info is great.The entertainment is even better.

Duncan McGeary said...

You call THAT a chip? Haven't been reading here long, have you?

Anonymous said...

That's why I laugh when I hear somebody blaming our out-of-control growth on "those damn California newcomers." The damn California newcomers were just patsies too, paying ridiculously inflated prices for a piece of this bogus "paradise."

*

Dartagnan, My man your on a roll today.

Yes, the old timers that had RE related biz here wanted to see 'growth', but that's not what concerns me.

What concerns me is this millions of taxpayer dollars spent on marketing the Bend brand, and especially during a depression ( in Bend ).

Yes, there is NO doubt them dumb fucking cali's got cleaned, but we have been saying that all along here, that Bend cleans your clock.

Anonymous said...

Bruce,

When Hollern started the "smart growth" program to sell NWXC that is when in my humble opinion the PR went PRO.

Let's review HOLLERN an heir to shevlin-hixson the old-mill, then was a TV broadcaster in the 60's in Montana, where he failed, then went to cali and got an MBA, his under-grad was in marketing. Then came in the 70's to Bend and built Black-BUTT ranch, ... and the rest is history. His "SMART GROWTH" is the same CUNTS selling "WISE GROWTH", or "WISE USE".

"BROOKS RESOURCES was created to take all the worth-less wood product land that had NO wood, and market it, and in the 1983 crash, HOLLERN almost loss his ASS"

"Today BRooks is repeating the same mistake, except this time, he will lose his ass".

"Trouble is Brooks is going to take Bend down with him"

The difference is-was come post y2k Hollern got smart with 'smart-growth' and hired young liberal pr-bunny pussy to sell, and it SOLD, and the BEND brand is FULL on ever since, an ALL the cali retirees came so that they could lose their life savings, and their 401K, and become beggars.

Anonymous said...

Calis are NOT the cause of the BUBBLE. BUT the calis are a MAJOR pain in my ass, they speed here, and run over our pets, and thus "If its tourist season, how come we can't shoot them".

The bubble was a perfect storm in Bend caused by ...

1.) Dumbya giving money for free to idiots to buy 4+ homes for nothing down, with no cap in price.

2.) SDC's were waived and deferred by the city, cost was $60k, but city only charged $12k, thus ponzi deferral scheme was created, Hollern & Bauhoffer, Bill Smith, and Homer Williams, Sebastian; greatest recipients

3.) DVA/VCB sold Bend as the brand, a retirement PARADISE and tens of thousands of cali retirees, and CO or HI retirees came here to retiree, but what they got was fucked by the machine (#2). They ALL bought way too much house (#1) for what they could afford, now they're all under water.

All things equal #1 was true everywhere, #2 was what made 'bend exceptional', and #3 was frosting on the cake because the #2 boyz got the city to PAY the PR/Marketing cost.

Anonymous said...

This is some of the funniest shit I've read in a long time. This guy wants to tell 47,000 other people how to live their lives!

*

No were NOT telling you how to live your lives, just don't live it here.

Understand the difference? Once your out of Bend, we don't give a fuck what you do with your life.

Anonymous said...

You're incredibly naive if you don't think Hollern is one of the GOBs. He's been here forever. The GOBs actually were the biggest advocates of breakneck, pedal-to-the-metal growth. Always have been.

*

Dart,

I think your missing the point, the CURRENT boom in growth was a result of the smart-growth, that ended the debate ( 2000 ) before that there was anti-growth, and pro-growth (GOBS) HOLLERN PAID FOR THE SMART-GROWTH, HE BROUGHT THE PEOPLE IN FROM OUT OF TOWN.

After 2000, there was NO more talk of anti-growth, there was ONLY smart-growth.

Anti-Growth was killed a long time ago, but the current DVA/VCB Bend-Branding, now runs Hollern's Smart-Growth and 'growth' religion is self-sustaining.

Anonymous said...

Cali's are THE problem -- that state produces the most materialistic, egotistical, narcissistic, consuming idiots in the US. When they move en-masse to anyplace, they wreck it. It's not just Bend: it's Atlanta, Austin, Missoula, Seattle, you name a popular place and you'll find the cali stink all over it. I've seen it every place I go. They want big cars, malls, chain stores, boxes called houses crammed up next to each other, and smog -- and they they aren't happy until they turn every town into an LA suburb.

That state, from San Fran south, needs to stop producing so many people who then leave and shit on other decent places. Or make it a separate country with a border patrol. Back in the day, Oregon discouraged cali's from coming here. Then some greedy guy who fancied himself a RE genius rolled into Bend straight out of Cali (surprise!) and marketed the hell out of it to his ex-pats.

The real crime is that Bend citizenry didn't stop him and his band of rapists. It's too damn late now.

Anonymous said...

How to pay for infrastructure is a big problem? Duh? Ever think of charging realistic SDC's during the boom when it could be done?

And they are talking about how we need more cops. And now we are so strapped cops are getting less funding...

*

Bruce,

Above is what you posted, my concern is you went from SDC to cops ( general budget ), they're NOT linked, and my concern was that you were trying to link them.

The SDC problem has NOTHING to do with the COP problem, so I'll guess I'll phrase my question. "Why did you link the general budget problem with the SDC problem??"

Anonymous said...

You call THAT a chip? Haven't been reading here long, have you?

Being offended because there are people in Bend who don't know where your store is, that qualifies as a chip. Lots of people don't go downtown much, why should they.

No were NOT telling you how to live your lives, just don't live it here. Understand the difference? Once your out of Bend, we don't give a fuck what you do with your life.

Dude, you need to get a life. You're carrying around an even bigger chip than Duncan is. Those 47,000 people you want to move away aren't going to do it, so you might as well take an anger management class to get over your personal issues.

Anonymous said...

Then some greedy guy who fancied himself a RE genius rolled into Bend straight out of Cali (surprise!) and marketed the hell out of it to his ex-pats.

*

Wow thank-you

Is this you timmy? Your the only fucking person here who ever thinks.

Yes, this fucking cali who came up here in the 70's cuz some distant fucking relative that owned shevlin-hixson from a family in MN said go to Oregon, and you can have that town, we don't want it, ... SO little Mike Hollern came up from Stanford and applied everything he learned.

Note "DART", that Hollern has NOT been here forever, but HE is NOT only a GOOD-OLD-BOY, he is the 500LB gorilla of the good-old-boyz,

But lets NOT fucking forget that Hollern was a silver spoon fucking loser before he came up to Bend, most likely he had handlers that help him with Black-Butte, in my memory he got a lot of help from John D. Gray ( OMARK ), who built Sunriver earlier. In the day JD Gray was the richest man in Oregon, his company OMARK invented the fucking chain-saw. Gray went on to do these fucking 'resorts' all over Oregon.


Hollern, just about lost his fucking ass in 1983 because brooks resources was almost bank-rupt. For fifteen years he laid low.

I don't know if you folks remember but when DUMBYA first got elected he came out to central-oregon and had a big meeting with these folks.

They all knew the BIG easy-money was coming even around 911.

The perfect fucking storm,

1.) easy money,
2.) defer SDC's forever
3.) market Bend as a brand dva/vcb, and make the taxpayer pay.

1,2,3 created the MOST over-valued RE in USA cnnfn.com 04,05,06

Now its a BIG fucking MESS, who is going to fix it,

p.s. Dart, I like you, but what we all do here is keep each other honest, and remember HOLLERN hasn't been here for fucking ever. I was here for years before HOLLERN got here, and I don't even consider myself forever.

TO me forever is to have had family here two or three generations ago.

Anonymous said...

Dude, you need to get a life.
***
Isn't he cute boys? -- so young, so naive. It's entertaining to listen to the young-uns prattle on in their baby talk.

Dr. Pepper/was anonymous said...

I am not a DUDE DUDE. Chip or not, I hope we get 2 feet of snow today and the electricity goes off for a while. If the falling RE prices don't make em leave may discomfort will. Give me Bend with no boxes and no money anyday.

Anonymous said...

Those 47,000 people you want to move away aren't going to do it, so you might as well take an anger management class to get over your personal issues.


*

Having a 'smelly cunt' tell me that I have a 'chip on my shoulder' is a fucking badge of honor.

OK, I'll say this before I really do get angry. This site is about debating the bend-bubble,

Its not about bruces pussy, its about bend-busts drinking problem, and its not about duncan card shop. This site is about the bend-bubble and its ramifications for survival.

If all you want to do here is personal attacks, then you should move on.

Yes, we're angry, I have been here since the early 1960's and have seen this place become a fucking shit-hole I'm angry.

Now lets get back to the bend-bubble, and quit talking about personal issues. IT's fucking boring.

Anonymous said...

I am not a DUDE DUDE. Chip or not.

*

If your not a DUDE, then your a woman that likes to debate the BendBubble with mysogynists.

There has only been 1 or 2 women on this site, and their 1/2 life seems to be days.

Anonymous said...

Give me Bend with no boxes and no money anyday.

Dude, you and buster ought to build a time machine and go back to 1983 so you can live together in happiness. You'd make a good couple.

not timmy said...

Is this you timmy? Your the only fucking person here who ever thinks.
***
nope just someone who saw calis ruin Atlanta in the 80s -- now the city is double the size and has NO water!! Atlanta is full of the same same type of greedy RE people that you have in Bend. Their motto is -- "What's good for business is good for Bend." I hope being thirsty is good for business.

Also saw calis ruin Seattle, Missoula, Austin -- and I know they are everywhere that is considered the least bit trendy in the U.S. Calis are like locusts.

Now bend is irrevocably ruined -- 45,000 won't leave, because they sunk all their money into a mirage in the desert.

When is that damn earthquake going to finally sink cali into the Pacific? That's the clean sweep the U.S. need.

Anonymous said...

Blogger Duncan McGeary said...

You call THAT a chip? Haven't been reading here long, have you?


*

Thanks dunc, Newbies we used to have a rule here, before you post go back and read all of homers posts, and all the comments, so you don't have to bore us, ok?

Everyone here has a chip on their shoulder, its what happens when you live in Bend for more than ten years, and you'll get one also.

Anonymous said...

Now bend is irrevocably ruined -- 45,000 won't leave, because they sunk all their money into a mirage in the desert.

*

They will leave, because there are no jobs here ( unless walmart is your career ), things cost 2X here, ... With $10/gal fuel coming, Bend will be ghost town very quickly.

YOU MUST know your history, Bend is a gold-rush town, and the calis will leave, but quicker than they came.

The problem today is that NOT enough people know that the RE gold-rush is over, once its a common fact, and there's nobody to screw because everyone is broke, your cali-locust will move on.

A locust has to move on to a new area to fuck, or they die.

Duncan McGeary said...

"Being offended because there are people in Bend who don't know where your store is, that qualifies as a chip. Lots of people don't go downtown much, why should they."

Gosh, when you put it that way, I can see my chip is totally uncalled for.

You know, since you can get just about everything you could ever need at the super Wal-mart in Redmond, you could avoid Bend altogether.

Anonymous said...

Gosh, when you put it that way, I can see my chip is totally uncalled for.

You know, since you can get just about everything you could ever need at the super Wal-mart in Redmond, you could avoid Bend altogether.


The last bookstore I shopped at was The Open Book, do you consider that part of downtown?

If you're such a downtown Bend booster, tell me again why I should go there. Is it so I can mingle with the beautiful people, or struggle to find parking, or pay extra for the privilege of shopping downtown?

timothy said...

I'm always amused when a someone is offended because someone else doesn't like Bend. No one place is perfect for everyone.

I don't know how long I'll be here, but it sure won't be forever. Maybe long enough to get the kids into college. Then I'm off to Manhattan, probably for 2 or 3 years to get my fill of museums, plays, and great restaurants. Then somewhere else. Probably a coast on the southeast.

If someone says they don't like Bend, big fucking deal. It's not a judgment of you, they just don't like it. Not everyone wants to ski every damned day.

Duncan McGeary said...

How would you know?

I have yet to not find a parking spot in the FREE parking garage which is a block away from my store.

You can't be bothered?

If you move to a town and don't make the slightest effort to discover it, then you are nothing but a resident tourist. Forget my store, have you been to the Pine Tavern? Have you ever heard of the Pine Tavern. How about the Book Barn, which until a few months ago was the only independent bookstore in Bend. How about Goodies?

It ain't THAT hard. Unless you just don't care, which you obviously don't.

bruce said...

RE: The SDC problem has NOTHING to do with the COP problem, so I'll guess I'll phrase my question. "Why did you link the general budget problem with the SDC problem??"

Because the City has transferred over $1.3 million out of the Police section of the General Fund into other funds to make up for shortfalls. See page 1 of the Detailed Budget as of Dec. 31, 2007, here: http://www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/docs/Dec_07_Detail_City_Financials.pdf

bruce said...

Tourism expenditures as of Dec. 31 are $546,726. $135,696 more was transferred out of the Tourism Fund into other funds to cover shortfalls.

Page 12 of the detailed budget, link above.

Duncan McGeary said...

Besides, it's impossible to argue with someone without knowing a thing about them, when they know exactly who your are.

But, Tim's right. If he doesn't like downtown Bend, that's O.K.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I am not a DUDE DUDE.

Are ya hot?

Duncan McGeary said...

Actually, when you get right down to it, half of the posters here probably don't like downtown Bend. If I didn't have a store in downtown Bend, I might not like it.

Still....it's hard for me to envision moving to a town and at least not get a pretty good impression of the layout. I think I would find out which businesses are around, even if I didn't shop there.

I don't know. When I lived in Eugene, I didn't try very hard, outside the theaters and the bookstores. But I never considered myself a Eugenean. I was the resident tourist (student) there.

So...whatever.

Anonymous said...

I'm always amused when a someone is offended because someone else doesn't like Bend.

I'm always amused when someone is offended about anything. Taking offense is a purely voluntary activity and it reveals more about the person taking it than the person supposedly giving it.

Forget my store, have you been to the Pine Tavern? Have you ever heard of the Pine Tavern. How about the Book Barn, which until a few months ago was the only independent bookstore in Bend. How about Goodies?

Yes, yes, yes and yes.

It ain't THAT hard. Unless you just don't care, which you obviously don't.

That chip looks like it's getting bigger. There's plenty of good shopping closer to where people live. Downtown isn't the center of the universe anymore. 99% of the time there's no need for me to waste gas driving downtown. Sorry to be the one to break the news to you.

bruce said...

Re: Not everyone wants to ski every damned day.

Skiing at Mt. B is pretty boring...

timothy said...

Personally, I like downtown. Sitting out back at the Pine Tavern in the summer is wonderful, as long as the bees don't want what you're eating.

Bend has a pleasant enough downtown that I think it's worth investigating. I find it essential in some ways. Where can you get a decent gift for a kid if you don't go to Leapin' Lizards?

There should be a REALLY good online web site for downtown that shows me where everything is. Maybe the Downtowners should put some money in that.

Duncan McGeary said...

I'm always amused when someone is offended about anything. Taking offense is a purely voluntary activity and it reveals more about the person taking it than the person supposedly giving it.

Arrggh!

I can't believe I got into an argument with an anonymous person who could say such an inane thing.

I'm done.

Anonymous said...

Watch 60 Minutes tonight. They stole Paul D's terminology about Bend to describe Stockton, CA -- a place that DOES make over-built Bend look like pardise.

They call Stockton "ground zero" for the RE subprime fiasco (BTW, "subprime" just means ghetto-ass-poor). They say its the microcosm of RE bust. Two of 3 houses for sale there are foreclosures or distressed sales. (Sorry PD -- I guess Bend ain't #1 RE sinkhole no mo.)

Best line -- "it's free money ... you had to apply NOT to get a loan (after 2003)."

2nd best -- Some real estate securities are worth ZERO dollars!!!

3rd best -- "It's far from over."

Anonymous said...

I can't believe I got into an argument with an anonymous person who could say such an inane thing.
***
Hell ya Dunc -- anyone who doesn't like downtown Bend is a hick-ass-burn-red-redneck retard. Saying downtown Bend is not worth the trouble is like saying ... "I do all MY shoppin' at the Walmart, thank ya very much" or "I have no character and think that Costco is heaven on eath."

could I be a woman said...

There has only been 1 or 2 women on this site, and their 1/2 life seems to be days.
***
How do you know if a poster is a female or not? Hmmmm?

Duncan McGeary said...

I'd rather argue with Bendbust.

Hey, Bendbust. You're fucking crazy, you know that?

Oh, Duncan. I think you have a small chip on your shoulder.

Fuck you, and shove this chip up your ass.

Oh, gosh, Duncan. I think you need to reread The Secret. You have anger issues.

You think, you crazy Bastard? No, I can't imagine that. Anger, here?

Yes, I must have won this argument because I'm unfazed. I'm so glad I've found such a positive site to express my views.

Anonymous said...

And as I sit here watching the third mini-blizzard ..."What the FUCK did I move here for???"
***
Sorry dartagnan, the forecast looks pretty bleak for at least one week:
http://www.findlocalweather.com/7DayOutlook/or/bend.html

Anonymous said...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said..

Are ya hot?

***

Are YOU?

Anonymous said...

"How do you know if a poster is a female or not? Hmmmm?"
-------

The women say I am not a Dude Dude.

So therefore, you are:
1) either a woman,
2) or you are not a guy and also not a woman

If #2, please leave now, as we don't want to learn any additional info about you.

Again, if you are #1, I repeat the previous question: Are you hot?

Anonymous said...

And as I sit here watching the third mini-blizzard ..."What the FUCK did I move here for???"
----

Dart is dipshit has been here for two decades and only now figured out it snows in the winter?

Hey Dartshit, get a clue, DUDE. Winter is sunny, cold and snowy here. But Palm Springs is sunny, warm and not snowy in the Winter.

Choose wisely, Grasshopper!! Go back to sunny Southern California, Dartshit. But wait a few days until the rains stop.

Hey, everybody, Cali Dartshit is going back home to Cali. One down, only 48,999 to go!

Anonymous said...

One down, only 48,999 to go!
***

That's 44,999 to go -- dipstick!

marge said...

Again, if you are #1, I repeat the previous question: Are you hot?
***

I repeat: are YOU??

Anonymous said...

I repeat: are YOU??
----

Okay, I got it now...

Hot chicks are not afraid to let people know it.

You aren't so you ain't.

That's cool, we have some ugly chicks on this site, but they leave after a day or two.

We also had a guy on here once who said he wasn't a DUDE. He didn't last long either. Not a flowery kinda blog, you know? Move on down the road....

Dr. Pepper./was anonymous said...

Nooooo. Not hot..Sorry..Just a working middle aged RE woman. Split personality, as in, help new folks buy a home and don't want more people in Bend. Never sold an investment house, none of my clients are in trouble with loans. Some have left town but most are still here.
I am no BB as far as hot.. I love Bend(the old Bend).
I love this blog and will from today on will read and not speak. I will start a new place to Bitch about Bend. I will try that tonight. Hoping to be www.BendBitch.informe.com
Been reading for 7 months..a bit more than the 1/2 life expected of a woman.

marge said...

I repeat: are YOU??
----
Okay, I got it now...Hot chicks are not afraid to let people know it.
***

you are avoiding the question Paul D: ARE YOU HOT or NOT?

by avoiding the question, you are admitting you are NOT hot -- and hot women do not answer such a question to not-hots!

(P.S. Looks like you might have two females on your lil ol blog tonight. One says she's not hot and one won't answer until you do. What a quandry.)

Anonymous said...

I don't know if we have any hot women on this blog or not but we definitely have a bunch of dip-shits juveniles stinking up the joint.

Dr.Peper/was anonymous said...

So Marge,
Are you from Fargo? You have the same name as my mother. She was from Fargo, but not the movie. The day is not over , so I can post more.
Thank you for this blog.
I will read it many times a day. I will continue to have a chip and Dunc, sorry, someone messed up your chip with mine. I'll stop in to your store and reintro myself in person. So NOT HOT will be at Bendbitch2.informe.com for my bitch sessions.
All you cunts can join anytime:) At least I have one. I hope we have more cops and less cunts. Git a gun...soon.

timothy said...

I have met three people who left after ONE winter. And one of them was last winter!

This floors me. People move here and don't know that it snows here? Or maybe they know, but they don't really know what it's like until they shovel their driveway.

I just have to laugh.

Dart wants to move because the city's gone to hell? So what? He's sick of it. Nothing wrong with that. Dart, you only live once. Hope you find a good place when you go.

Anonymous said...

Speaking of dogs (not not-hot bitches)...

I've never seen this specific point mentioned here -- but has anyone else seen a copy of Bend's 4-color Visitor's Guide brochure (www.visitbend.com). It not only has the nerve to feature a man playing with a dog in the river, but it has a dog theme throughout the whole friggin' thing. Is this the biggest joke of the decade or what? A city that bans and fines dogs and no longer allows them to play in the river -- actually has the balls to use dogs to promote Bend's desireability -- with a dog, no leash, playing in the river.

Who's responsible for this PR mockery? Anyone know?

marge said...

So Marge, Are you from Fargo?
***
No - Springfield.

We best not talk here. The boys are getting restless ("... we definitely have a bunch of dip-shits juveniles stinking up the joint"). I've been secretly reading and posting for four months -- don't tell them, they hate girls.

I like the name of your Web site! I'll check it out.

bruce said...

Re: I've been secretly reading and posting for four months -- don't tell them, they hate girls.

Please don't include me in that hate thing...

Anonymous said...

Please don't include me in that hate thing... - brucepussy

*

This is why he's affectionately our bruce-pussy, because brucey is about as much pussy as we get on this blog.

Anonymous said...

A city that bans and fines dogs and no longer allows them to play in the river -- actually has the balls to use dogs to promote Bend's desireability -- with a dog, no leash, playing in the river.

*

Welcome to Bend bitch let me explain.

Those $450 tickets for fido swimming in the river you don't think that cunt running the city of bend fine collection isn't running a racket??

It's symbiotic, attract the tourists, or locals, and get them to let fido swim, and BAM city gets $450.

You MUST think like a Bend Kleptocrat around here, otherwise you'll get fucked quick.

Of course www.visitbend.com ( DVA/VCB ) is a complete disconnect from reality, but who gives a fuck, they come, and SORE, C3, BULL, & DVA/VCB have events, and RE-HO's sell them condos.

This is fucking bend, this is why its a paradise, because an infinite number of dumb-asses come to this town and get fucked.

bruce said...

Just started watching 60 Minutes--Stockton? Huh? A bedroom community of San Fran?

I really don't understand the attraction, unless it was all for the field workers who all got no-doc mortgages.

More houses than people, here, there and everywhere. Just how did that come about so hard in the last five years?

Anonymous said...

bruce said...

Tourism expenditures as of Dec. 31 are $546,726. $135,696 more was transferred out of the Tourism Fund into other funds to cover shortfalls

*

Ok, bruce but that is still $546k too much down the rathole.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Just a working middle aged RE woman. Split personality, as in, help new folks buy a home and don't want more people in Bend.>

Ahhhh... c'mon. We'll play nice. Well. I'll play nice. Timmy will almost certainly play nice. Buster? Hmmm.

C'mon. Just post anon, don't tell us you're a gal, and it'll be fine.

"BendBitch"? C'mon... if you really haven't sold to an spec-puke-bag & actually pine for the old Bend... you're all right.

In answer to the question, "Am I Hot"? My Lord, have a look at the techni-color hemorrhoids posted by Buster here, and you'll get a decent idea of how I look... on a good day.

has anyone else seen a copy of Bend's 4-color Visitor's Guide brochure

That would not surprise me a bit. It's, of course, completely enraging and also par for the course for this asylum.

This place is about reeling them in, by hook or by crook, even if you have to show patently criminal misdemeanors on the cover of our Visitors Brochures to get 'er done.

"HI! Come to Bend & commit THIS misdemeanor, and you'll get fined $600! And that's IF there are any cops on the beat, which there almost certainly will NOT be, since we decided to charge 1/5th what we should have for SDC charges, so now:

1) When it rains a 1/4 inch, it floods half the city
2) If two Mexicans can divert cops by smashing some downtown windows, half the banks here can get robbed w/o any cops showing up
3) Our parks are FBI approved meth-dens
4) We can't plow a single fucking road, except the one from the Bachelor Park-n-Ride to the mountain.
5) This town is run like a feedlot: We're glad to welcome you in, but once the gate closes, we slaughter you.

Bend: It's everywhere you want to be!

Duncan McGeary said...

The future of Bend?

Anyone want to invest in a "Repo Bus?"

bruce said...

Re: Ok, bruce but that is still $546k too much down the rathole.

Just information, not a judgement. I think we should spend some, but not that much. Maybe a $100K or so. We have to work our way out of this mess, and tourism is part of it. But not the major part.

Can we pass special assessments on those that made a pile? What are the legalities? A question I am looking into.

Anonymous said...

Duncan,

I would like to refresh the newbies on this issue of your shop. Downtown Bend is 2 by 3 blocks, which can be walked in entirety in less than 5-10 minutes.

I think your original observation, was that people who claimed to have lived here 5-10 years or more didn't know about your shop. I agree, how can anyone who has 'lived' in Bend not know what is downtown? Unless they never go downtown. I live close to downtown, and summer I'm down there every night doing my homeless walk/bike thing.

I support your original observation that someone who doesn't know Pegasus must not have really lived in Bend 5+ years, or must have never gone downtown. Perhaps they never walked downtown.

Hell even in 1982 when things were rough it was still nice to walk around downtown.

I do speculate that given our population has doubled in less than ten years that there are a ton of people that stay on the east-side, and given that walmart is south, and costco is east, there are most likely a ton of people who have never been west of I97 (third ave).

I never go east of I97 unless I'm going to hike the Badlands, or going to Burns or French-Glen.

I know the dump is out on se27th, and that is the only useful thing in Bend east of I97, the dump.

Anonymous said...

http://bendbitch2.informe.com/forum/

Let's review this for the newbies.

Informe.com is a nazi racket of IP collection, and anybody that posts there and noticeably transfers their anonymous status to informe.com can have their IP logged.

In summary, lonely MILF cunt wannabe one of the boys, if you want attention, then setup a blogspot.com site, and don't use informe.com, because most of us are tech guys and we don't want media, cops, or RE-HO's logging our IP's.

It would take you just a second to create

angrybendbitch.blogspot.com

But you would have to post something, and say something, ...

sincerely,

Anonymous said...

Can we pass special assessments on those that made a pile? What are the legalities? A question I am looking into.

*

I think it happens all the time, remember the cunts running this town can pull anything out of their ass.

In 2000 they deferred SDC for stuff in the west to 2007, and now the fucking cunts are deferring it to 2014 for their masters. Given anything can be deferred, why can't they go back and UN-DEFER.

Sure they can, all its takes is a lawyer to draft the ordinance, and the city-hall to bless it, of course given that our city-hall is OWNED by HOLLERN & Bauhofer, its NOT likely to happen.

If & when we put folks like we have on this site, for folks like Chamber of Commerce, or the 1,000 people that signed the STOP juniper-ridge bill, ... then we could load city-hall, and turn the fucking thing around.

Look at SDC the infrastructure-first people got 5k signatures, and this MAY08, there's going to be a FULL SDC ballot title, if the politicians don't go back and un-defer the defer, then the good people at infrastucture-first can make the NEXT ballot title do it, and city-hall can't stop it.

Bruce get involved with infrastructure-first people google that on the web with bend oregon you'll find them, I always sit with those people at council meetings.

Anonymous said...

... even if you have to show patently criminal misdemeanors on the cover of our Visitors Brochures to get 'er done.
***
Oh that is funny -- it's killer comments like that that makes you d'oh man!!

You forgot one point (which I have heard is becoming a big problem):
6. Sewers backing up in people's homes.

Hey, one lil ol town can only handle so much shit evenutally.

bruce said...

Re: You forgot one point (which I have heard is becoming a big problem):
6. Sewers backing up in people's homes.

In what areas?

Anonymous said...

"HI! Come to Bend & commit THIS misdemeanor, and you'll get fined $600! And that's IF there are any cops on the beat, which there almost certainly will NOT be, since we decided to charge 1/5th what we should have for SDC charges,

*

Homer last summer at mcKay park they had cops hiding in the bushes all summer long. The bend city traffic judge ( lisa I think is her name ) lives there, and on occasion I mentioned to her that I felt it was a racket, and she told me she hated dogs, and that she was glad that the cops were down there in the bushes.

Also during the summer the cops were hiding all over Les-Schwab amphitheater writing tickets, remember $400/ticket in a park watching partially clothed rafters go by is way better than writing $80 tickets out on HWY97, and/or sitting in the patrol car. 99% of the time the cops writing the tickets are the bike cops.

I'm out on my bike all summer along the river, so I see this shit everyday.


Fucking Bend, #1 resort, another myth is Bend loves dogs, bullshit, bend loves to fuck dogs for money.

timothy said...

We can have one house filling up with shit every week, and no one will care except for that person. But just wait until we have a week where no one can drink their water. Then people will care. That's probably the first time that 99% of people in town will know how backward our infrastructure is.

bruce said...

OK, CBS 60 Minutes has turned into a pro-Iraq war show.

What a fucking plant this guy they are interviewing is...

Dr. Pepper said...

KO,
How bout some info, Jan. so far posting 188.00 PPST average, 45 Bend Res units sold @ med 288k. If it holds it will be the first true post that is close to 20% drop in Bend.
Isn't that what ya'll are looking for?
Thanks for the tip on blogspot vs. informe. Never would wat anyone to be found. Specially the the person tht posted 60 Min,,b4 it came on in OR.
Must be a FTA freak.
p.s. I like the "angry' part of the potential URL. That way all the C' can post also.

Anonymous said...

More houses than people, here, there and everywhere. (60 minutes)
***

See it's not just Bend.

Once they made those no-down loans and threw money at anyone who could fog a mirror, they just threw up (literally) crap shacks all over the U.S. On 60 minutes the one couple didn't even seem to realize they'd taken out a LOAN for money they had to pay back.

I once worked at a banking software company -- and until very recently, no one would even give a credit card to people in the subprime sector. But when the prime market became saturated with credit cards (multiple cards per household), the bankers started to think, "Hmmm where are we going to get new customers? I guess we're going to have to go after the ghetto dwellers without jobs and charge them sky-high interest rates."

Then it was just a hop, skip, and a jump to "no-down home loans." (thanks to bush apparently)

It's not even the U.S. that is culpable for these crimes, because foreign banks bought up the packages of "sliced and diced" subprime loans -- many now worth ZERO. Millions of retiring boomers' 401Ks were invested in these things.

Our world is now a series of financial dominos, that are all starting to fall -- one after the next. And all the dumb fucks are going : what happened? Now that we know how stupid the supposedly smart people were, we can see how truly doomed we are.

Anonymous said...

6. Sewers backing up in people's homes.

In what areas?

*

Eastside, is the biggest I'll explain it for all.

Under the new rules shit can ONLY flow downhill to a sewage station.

Problem is THE FUCKING CITY gave building permits to SHIT-HOLES out far on the eastside that are downhill from the fucking sewage treatment plant. Originally the developments were to put in tanks and pumps, but it didn't happen got 'deferred'.

Now there are all kinds of developments out east mostly north of HWY 20, buts a general problem all over the east-side, again I repeat there is a general rule in Bend PLANNING if you BUILD a house, your SHIT MUST flow down hill to a treatment center.

Well these fucking east siberian crap-shacks they got built downhill. The SDC's did NOT get paid for the pumps, and the city is broke.

You want actual locations, just get a topo map with google, and locate the sewage plants, then draw vectors on the topos that are downhill from sewage, now overlay that with the hybrid google map, and you can see the developments that are downhill.

BIG FUCKING PROBLEM, and its going to cost us $200M->$500M.

All these developments that have this problem need their own sewage holding station, and big pumping pipes to pump the shit uphill.

1) Bends system was designed for 25K pop, and hasn't been update for years
2.) Bend city-hall planning let developers build on worthless land, remember there was a reason this land Had NO VALUE.
3.) The developers should have paid, for the pumps, but permit/city had NO balls, besides developers are the fucking city-hall/staff.

There is a lot written about SHIT in Bend, I think this past summer I wrote ten blogs just on Bends SHIT.

Because of the failed design, and that people are on the system downhill the theory is that once the treatment centers are FULL, the shit will have no where to go, except downhill to the lowest tracts, ... Bend is full of shit literally.

Another fucking reason to stay far away from the east side of bend.

Anonymous said...

6. Sewers backing up in people's homes.

In what areas?

***
Don't know. Someone was complaining on CraigsList rants. Probably in the SE which apparently no one cares about anyway. But if it ever reaches the NW side, you can bet the shit will hit the fan.

Anonymous said...

We have killed this dead-horse, but it goes back to worthless desert land.

Remember County sold JR for $1, there was a reason.

This land out east of SE27th, some of it lays low. It was worthless.

Note all the canals all that water runs downhill.

Trouble is far north, and far east is NOT where the sewage treatment stations were built in the day.

Then in the great boom, the developers refused and/or lobbied to defer the building of new shit treatment stations.

Mandatory rule in Bend you can't build downhill from shit station, but developers greased city-hall and that rule waived, ...

Actually flood control is even worse. ...

Sewage $500M missing

Water $500M, when the canals go pipe, it will cost over $500M to put all rural on city water, as wells will go dry when canals are piped, its going to happen.

Flood control is the worst, out at NWXC like Summit High, it cost almost $10M to fix the football field, because of flooding, HOLLERN avoided flood control in all the west which is all pummy-powder, and in a big rain, it all washes away.

Flood control is going to cost over a $1BILLION dollars to fix, because it got deferred.


There was a reason all this land had no value prior to the bendbubble, but trouble is the money didn't get spent for long term, short term its all going to wash away.

Anonymous said...

But if it ever reaches the NW side, you can bet the shit will hit the fan

*

As long as your UPHILL from your neighborhood treatment plant your ok, but if your downhill, then somebodys shit is going to hit your fan.

BilboBend said...

You forgot one point (which I have heard is becoming a big problem):
6. Sewers backing up in people's homes.

*

I'll post a background on this shortly, newbies are such a pain, this is old stuff, unless of course you just bought a home on the eastside for $550k, and your knee-deep in shit, and your scratching your ass asking, how come nobody knew?

We knew everybody fucking knew, but who cared, the only way to make a profit in this shithole was to defer SDC's.

Anonymous said...

6. Sewers backing up in people's homes.

In what areas?
-----------

The bunghole. That's where all of my shit comes from. But I understand if most of yours comes from just under your lip, burcepussy.

Anonymous said...

http://bendbubble.blogspot.com/2007/07/bend-ugb-urban-growth-boundary-story.html

For those that can't get enough shit, here's one I wrote a while back entitled Bend, a city of shit.

Its all about the Gravitational Shit Problem in Bend.

It requires a firm understanding of Tensor Calculus and Manifold Algebra. Post Graduate General Relativity would help, but its a place to start.

The fundamental idea is that shit/piss ( Human Excrement or "FUN" in Mandarin ) flows downhill.

Anonymous said...

Bruce,

I found a lot of shit, if you just google "shit bend oregon sdc bend".

You'll have a nights worth of feces reading.

Note, Bend Shit is one of my favorite subjects.

Note, also today you posted the chipmunk or squirrel box, a while back I did a whole blog just on Chipmunk Recipes. If your interesting in din-din after your shit reading, I'll post the link to the chipmunk dining.

Anonymous said...

How bout some info, Jan. so far posting 188.00 PPST average, 45 Bend Res units sold @ med 288k. If it holds it will be the first true post that is close to 20% drop in Bend.
Isn't that what ya'll are looking for?

*

Bend RE was down 20% a year ago, why is NAR now going public with old info??

I suspect its because the BIG stuff isn't selling, and thus the medians being weighted to the high-end isn't working anymore.

In my hood homes that were selling for $500k two years ago, could be had for $300k last winter, and now for $250k, I live near Drake Park.

In my opinion were already down 50%, but hell by the time NAR admits that we'll be in recovery.

The good news is that -20% down common knowledge ( if it gets fucking reported ), then banks will have to admit all the nothing down cunts are under water and fucked.

Anonymous said...

How bout some info, Jan. so far posting 188.00 PPST average, 45 Bend Res units sold @ med 288k

*

The bend BULL article just a few days ago quoted 32 homes in bend sold for month of January 08, me thinks our realtor here is making things sound better than it really is. Sounds fishy +50% in few days.

Anonymous said...

newbies are such a pain...
***
damn man, it's a full-time job to read ALL the old stuff. I have my hands full keeping up with Mr. D'oh's site.

I perused your shit rants thought. Thx, I guess.

Anonymous said...

A Short History of Shit in Central Oregon

Cities like Bend and Redmond are built on solid basalt. Central Oregon contractors did not dig sewer trenches with back hoes. They blew trenches with explosives. The Legislature sold state pollution control bonds and created a “hardship fund” to subsidize cities with high sewer construction costs. The bonds were paid off with income tax revenues over 30 years. By the late 1970s nearly all Oregon cities had sewage treatment facilities built to serve double the population. That is the good news.

The population of Central Oregon is expected to grow nearly as much. The sewage treatment and water supply systems completed by the 1970s are now reaching their capacity. Drinking water is an emerging concern.

It’s time to do it all over again.

*

So, there you are, Bend is sitting on a 1970's system, that was designed for 2X of 1970's population, there was a reason there were NO siberian housing out there on the eastside, but they built it anyway.

Like INNof7thMTN HOA bills, I can honestly see liens of $100's of thousands on homes in some of these siberian mcMansion crap-shacks, note these costs exceed what they paid.

Anonymous said...

IF there are any cops on the beat, which there almost certainly will NOT be, since we decided to charge 1/5th what we should have for SDC charges,

*

Cops are general fund, and are not part of SDC's.

The cops did use the dog tickets as an easy way to generate revenue.

Maybe someone can correct, but my recollection is that this year the city wanted TEN new piggy's, but the money isn't there, and they wanted a dozen new pig-pens on wheels, and that money is not there. No pigs in bend, have been laid off, we're just not going to get any new pork.

Dr.Pepper/was anonymous said...

F**k your newbie BS. Not a newbie to RE. I posted real numbers. 288.9 med to date in Jan. 188.9 PPSF, 45 sold to date. You figure it.If you can get better info let me know. I will always tell you the truth, I will visit Dunc in person this week, it seems he is the only REAL person here. The rest of U are CS .

Anonymous said...

F**k your newbie BS. Not a newbie to RE. I posted real numbers. 288.9 med to date in Jan. 188.9 PPSF, 45 sold to date.
>>>
It's ok to say fuck here, don't be afraid.

You didn't answer the question, just a few days ago the BULL reported 32 homes sold for Jan, and now you have blown that number up 50%.

If you don't know what I'm referring to, then you don't live in Bend.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the tip on blogspot vs. informe. Never would wat anyone to be found. Specially the the person tht posted 60 Min,,b4 it came on in OR.
Must be a FTA freak.
p.s. I like the "angry' part of the potential URL. That way all the C' can post also.

*

I thought only children used abbreviations like the above. Is this person posting from an iPhone? FTA, GOB, C, b4, ... What's the point of this, I have never seen anybody but children do this.

It probably is a realtor, and most likely an angry MILF RE-HO. Our favorite kind, our poster girlz for Bend RE. Hey Bend Cougar, take any men to the cleaners lately in Bend?

I don't care what you look like, but I'm curios, if you are a realtor, and afraid to say FUCK, but like stat's, why aren't you over at BENDBB's site?? That where all the political correct shit eaters hang in the bend blog-sphere. This site really is a bunch of misogynistic old farts. Other than a cougar fondling prey, what would be the point, besides a real cougar would be fondling the real thing, and that would be a 25 year old hunk.

Well feel free to ask any questions about BEND RE, we have all been around here for a long time, and have seen it all.

Anonymous said...

I will always tell you the truth, I will visit Dunc in person this week, it seems he is the only REAL person here. The rest of U are CS .

*

Bruce is also a nice guy. Dunc is our own Ned Flanders here in Springfield.

A nice guy to a fault.

Anonymous said...

Homer,

Before I forget to complement, this may be a record 150 posts, and little over 24 hours after the new blog opened, if you keep this up, you make break the 300 record.

Dr. Pepper said...

"I don't care what you look like, but I'm curios, if you are a realtor, and afraid to say FUCK, but like stat's, why aren't you over at BENDBB's site?? That where all the political correct shit eaters hang in the bend blog-sphere. This site really is a bunch of misogynistic old farts."

I go on BBB's site as ANON or Mstucker posting stats for the last 4 months. I really like to tell the truth, what ever that may be, good , bad or otherwise. As far as saying "FUCK", in my private life, I say it every third word. I was just sensoring myself. Would ya'all feel better if I used all the cuss words you use? It's not like they don't slide off my tongue as easily as it does for most here.
I thought only children used abbreviations like the above. Is this person posting from an iPhone? FTA, GOB, C, b4, ... What's the point of this, I have never seen anybody but children do this.

"It probably is a realtor, and most likely an angry MILF RE-HO. Our favorite kind, our poster girlz for Bend RE. Hey Bend Cougar, take any men to the cleaners lately in Bend?"
I hope that someday you will know that I am with you, not against you. Far as the cougers go if I see one on the home place, I will feed it. Any offering for the feeding ?
GDub

DR. Pepper said...

"I thought only children used abbreviations like the above. Is this person posting from an iPhone? FTA, GOB, C, b4, ... What's the point of this, I have never seen anybody but children do this."
I think the only abb that was important is FTA.
That said, I still say I will always say what is real about stats. If the Bull had a few days earlier stats it was probably true. My crystal ball says" it is the 1st REAL and recorded huge, drop in RE prices in 15 years. If it holds true til the end of the month, I really hope the press reports it. I am open to suggestions for outing this to the public.

PopGoesBend said...

Soon I think we will see more realtors becoming realistic about the bubble's pop. They have to, their income depends on it. At this point nobody is buying and the only way they will start again is if enough realtors can convince their sellers to knock at LEAST 20-25% off their prices. At that point some may start selling and realtors can start making money again.

DR.Pepper said...

Homer,
If they will stay up, 300 comments are really possible.
Homer R U UP?
If the rest are sleeping, can you tell me why a woman has a 1/2 life here? How about the hated RE person. Ya know we didn't all suck the hind tit for all it may have been worth. Not only do I care but my clients are safe and free from the ilks of the mortgage industry.
Happy 27th of the month. Hope for 300 comments shortly.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

How bout some info, Jan. so far posting 188.00 PPST average, 45 Bend Res units sold @ med 288k

*

The bend BULL article just a few days ago quoted 32 homes in bend sold for month of January 08, me thinks our realtor here is making things sound better than it really is. Sounds fishy +50% in few days.


Thanks for the info.

And up 50% IS possible when the numbers are this low. 32 sales by the 20th, puts us on track for 50 sales in Jan. We'll be close....

It's the $288K medians in one month that sound funny. That's a $50K dive in one month. Damn.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

it is the 1st REAL and recorded huge, drop in RE prices in 15 years.

Didn't come soon enough to help me on my burrito bet. Dang it!

I'm just dubious about the "reality" of ANY prices at the current volume level. Remember last May when prices exploded higher on a very small number of high priced homes? Then it fell right back the next month.

I think we're going to have to go to 2 or 3 month moving averages to get a real sense of where prices are really going. Plus, I favor PPSF numbers, not raw home prices. PPSF figures have shown prices dropping in Bend for a long time. In low volume places like Sisters, the monthly SQFT number varies so wildly, that raw prices don't give a decent indication of anything.

But I'll say this: Prices dropping below $300K medians is a hell of a psychological blow. When I made my bet with BendBB, the median was $360K, or so. Medians in the $200's sounded pretty crazy...

timothy said...

With volume this low, the median under $300 could be saying that banks aren't giving non-conforming loans. Of course the gov't wants to up the non-conforming cutoff. Poor Freddie and Fannie.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Builders slash prices 10%, but sales fall anyway
December's 5% decline caps record 26% drop in new-home sales in 2007



WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. builders slashed prices by more than 10% in December in a failed bid to boost sales, which dropped about 5% to the lowest level in nearly 13 years, the Commerce Department reported Monday.

The grim figures show no relief in sight for a battered building sector and are certain to be a major item on the Federal Reserve's agenda for its two-day policy-setting meeting that begins Tuesday.

Sales of new homes fell 4.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 604,000 in December, far below the 645,000 expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch and the lowest sales pace since February 1995.

November's sales pace was revised down to 634,000 from 647,000 reported earlier. Large downward revisions to the data have become common.

The sales figures likely overstate the health of the building sector, since they don't include cancellations, which have soared in the past year.

The median sales price tumbled a record 10.9% to $219,200 compared with November and were down 10.4% compared with a year earlier. It's the biggest year-over-year drop in the median sales price since 1970. The average sales price fell a record 11.5% to $267,300 compared with December 2006.

The inventory of unsold new homes dropped to 495,000 from 502,000, but rose to a 26-year high in relation to sales, representing 9.6-months' supply at the December sales pace. Inventories don't include homes thrown back on the market due to canceled sales.

For all of 2007, home sales fell a record 26.4% to 774,000 compared with 1.05 million sold in 2006. Inventories fell 8% in 2007.

The median sales price rose 0.2% in 2007 to $246,900.

Government statisticians have low confidence in the monthly report, which is subject to large revisions and large sampling and other statistical errors.

The standard error in December was plus or minus 12.1%. Read the full government report.

Longer trends do a better job of showing the reality of the housing market than volatile monthly numbers. For the annual figures, the standard error is just 2.5%.

The government says it can take up to five months to establish a new trend in sales. Over the past five months, sales have been on a 669,000 annual pace, 33% slower than a year earlier. In 2006, 1.05 million new homes were sold.

Last week, the National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes marked the sharpest annual decline in a decade, while median sales prices fell for the first time on record.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The inventory of unsold new homes dropped to 495,000 from 502,000, but rose to a 26-year high in relation to sales, representing 9.6-months' supply at the December sales pace. Inventories don't include homes thrown back on the market due to canceled sales.

Inventories DON'T COUNT homes back on the market due to busted sales?

Well shit. Add 20% to the above numbers then. Half the shit out there is a re-entrant, busted sale.

timothy said...

Hey Paul, guess how many houses sold last January, when the market was so dead that all the Realtors said it just HAD to come back...





135

Anonymous said...

It seems that some idiot Sisters RE dork has been reading this blog:
"“It will be the type of stores that you would find in Aspen, Colorado, or resorts that bring in tourists,” Storton said."

Maybe PaulDoh is Peter Storton in real life?


From the Bulletin:

SISTERS — A Portland-based developer wants to convert a former gas station site on this city’s west side into upscale retail stores like those found in well-known resort areas.

The Sisters Plaza development would bring national and regional tenants who would ultimately attract higher-end tourists visiting Sisters, said Peter Storton, broker and owner of Sisters-based RE/MAX Town & Country Realty, who represents the property’s Portland-based owner.

“It will be the type of stores that you would find in Aspen, Colorado, or resorts that bring in tourists,” Storton said. “We would like to get this out finally because it’s sat vacant. Now that we can introduce something, we’re talking to the potential tenants and trying to secure letters of intent.”

The 11 spaces available in the development could include a Starbucks Coffee Co. or a Peet’s Coffee & Tea, an upscale deli, bank, wireless phone company, higher-end women’s or men’s clothing shops, and a gift store, Storton said.

While most lease rates in downtown Sisters are about $1.25 or less per square foot, Sisters Plaza lease rates would be much higher, Storton said. In addition to rent, tenants would pay taxes, insurance, utilities and maintenance costs, he said.

“It’s much more than what people are used to,” Storton acknowledged, but he believes Sisters needs more higher-end stores.

“That’s the problem we have ... ,” not enough higher-end attractions, he said. “It’s great when we get people here, but we’ve got to have something for them to do when they get here.”

The development of the property, located next to the Sno-Cap Drive-in on Cascade Avenue across from the Clearwater Gallery, also will provide shopping for out-of-town convention attendees at the FivePine Conference Center on the east side of town, said Storton, a past president of the Sisters Area Chamber of Commerce.

Mixed reactions


One local resident said Sisters locals need shops for basic goods and services.

“The city is already priced so high that we have to go to Bend or Redmond to do our shopping,” said Ila Huff, manager of the Sno-Cap, which has been in business since 1954. “Why get a pair of earrings for $12 when you can get them at Wal-Mart in Redmond for $6? There’s no place in Sisters where you can buy socks or underwear.”

A national coffee chain also could hurt the city’s already-crowded field of coffee purveyors, Huff said.

Sisters cannot prohibit national chains, said Mayor Brad Boyd, owner of Eurosport, a downtown bike rental and sales shop.

“Nowhere in our code does it say we get to choose who our tenants are in that building,” he said.

The city already has several chain stores, including McDonald’s and Subway restaurants, and Ray’s Food Place, Boyd noted.

Sisters Plaza developers would need to adhere to the city’s 1880s, Western-themed design code and 30-foot height limits, and the code also prohibits any businesses with drive-through services, Boyd said.

Julia Rickards, owner of the Clearwater Gallery, across the street from the proposed development, offered mixed views on the proposal.

“I love that that’s going to be developed and not a dirt lot,” Rickards said. “I’m in favor of the vitality of downtown Sisters — that’s the only way we’re going to have growth.”

But Rickards said she would continue to patronize Sisters Coffee House and other local coffee establishments if Sisters Plaza included a national coffee chain.

“Our customers like that Sisters is not the same old town,” she said. “To bring in a chain, especially a chain coffee shop — I would not be in favor.”

Other developments in the area, including a planned rebuilding of the Ray’s Food Place, and a sale and redevelopment of the 53-acre U.S. Forest Service property one block west of Sisters Plaza, will add further value to the city’s west side, RE/MAX’s Storton said.

The property’s owner, Portland-based developer Nick Veroske, had to wait about 2½ years for former owners to clean up the site, which had housed a Chevron station for about 30 years, before he could advance his development plans, Storton said. Veroske could not be reached for comment Thursday or Friday.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

From David Foster, Jan 10, 2008:

The December statistics and trends showed a continuing overall sluggish market. I will be posting a summary of the year's trends in a week or so, so won't comment much at this point.

Kinda sad, but it seems David has lost interest in chronicling the implosion of Bend. He seemed to hit a dearth of material, and used phrases like, "I suggested that the market would likely continue to adjust and transition into a more "normal" market", over & over.

He also seemed compelled to put a Happy Face on what is increasingly acknowledged by all as a Total Disaster.

Not bad or anything, I would have thrown in the towel if I was him, long ago.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Yo Mstucker!

Just curious if you, or others you know, are thinking about quitting the business?

I think it's no secret that current sales volumes cannot support all the agents in Bend. And it's also probably clear that MANY agents will think, "I'll stick it through to the other side of this thing".

Just curious if there is a sense of dread & dispair in the ranks yet. I'd suspect the Bubbletime-agents are getting a bit disillusioned right now.

And what's the attitude of sellers regarding dropping price? Many look to be moving in small steps. There seem to be quite a few dreamers who have extrapolated 2004-2006 gains right through to today, and are asking ludicrious prices. What happens when you have The Conversation about price?

Are you taking listings from these people? I'd think that's gotta be a tough call, cuz you know you can't sell at ridiculous prices anymore, so you'll have to have The Conversation at some point, and many people are firmly stuck in la-la land regarding prices (Kool-Aid poisoning... Thank You!). And a lot of agents ain't paying for Homes & Land, Bulletin 4-colors, and Google PPC ads with Monopoly money. This has gotta be costing you....

I've heard several Realtors who feel this is the uphill battle they are fighting.

Any thoughts?

timothy said...

Paul, did you miss my post above? Last January we had 135 sales and everyone thought that was lame. We won't make half that this January.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The 11 spaces available in the development could include a Starbucks Coffee Co. or a Peet’s Coffee & Tea, an upscale deli, bank, wireless phone company, higher-end women’s or men’s clothing shops, and a gift store, Storton said.

Damn! That's a Great Idea! Wadda ya think, Duncan? Homogenize the hell outta the place, and make it like every other retail nightmare in America! AWESOME!

Back in the early 1900's, John D Rockefeller had railroads impose a predatory tax on his competitors, where by HE received a payment for every barrel THEY shipped! He didn't even own the railroad!

Sisters should do that. Make indigenous businesses PAY for every cup of Starbucks served! THAT will kill Sisters ASAP, and we won't have to endure it's slow, grinding destruction from within!

People LOVE driving 200 miles to drink Starbucks! Good Call, Peter Storton! Like Becky Breeze, this guy KNOWS what people want.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Last January we had 135 sales and everyone thought that was lame. We won't make half that this January.

Yup, I saw that.

What's great is we've seen that damn near every month of 2007. "So low, it can't go any lower", seemed to be the mantra.

Anyone wanna say that this month? You will almost certainly get a willing audience with David Fisher at the Bulletin. But your credibility will be shot to hell.

Anonymous said...

The 11 spaces available in the development could include a Starbucks Coffee Co. or a Peet’s Coffee & Tea, an upscale deli, bank, wireless phone company, higher-end women’s or men’s clothing shops, and a gift store, Storton said.

*

"COULD INCLUDE" is BULL talk, lets talk real talk ...

"Porn Outlet", "Vibrator Shop", "Cell Phone Card Shop", "Hock-Shop", "Payday Loan Center", "Tan Salon", "Video Lottery Day Care Ctr", "Meth Recovery Outpatient Ctr".

Did I miss any central oregon standby that real people use and not tourists??

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Is BendBB down? I get:

Could not get topic data

DEBUG MODE

SQL Error : 1064 You have an error in your SQL syntax; check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near '' at line 1

SELECT t.* FROM phpbb_topics t WHERE t.topic_id =

Line : 442
File : index.php

timothy said...

>>Is BendBB down?

It's back up. I just posted a link over there to a story about historic RE prices...

http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7258934

bruce said...

“That’s the problem we have ... ,” not enough higher-end attractions, he said. “It’s great when we get people here, but we’ve got to have something for them to do when they get here.”
...
“I love that that’s going to be developed and not a dirt lot,” Rickards said. “I’m in favor of the vitality of downtown Sisters — that’s the only way we’re going to have growth.”


Yeah, get more tourists in and they can just get out of their car in that parking lot called Hwy 20 thought the middle of town and shop for a new cell phone.

What fucking world do these people live in?

timothy said...

Aren't there about a dozen drive-through coffee huts along the strip in Sisters already? I guess Starbucks can always steal some of that, though. They're like McDonalds (also selling coffee), you know what you're getting.

timothy said...

What is the state of the bypasses being built? Aren't we going to get new ways to drive AROUND Redmond and Sisters?

When that happens in other towns, the businesses dry up and blow away.

Anonymous said...

While most lease rates in downtown Sisters are about $1.25 or less per square foot, Sisters Plaza lease rates would be much higher, Storton said. In addition to rent, tenants would pay taxes, insurance, utilities and maintenance costs, he said

*

Oh boy what a novel idea, drive all the native old boyz out of business in sisters and bring in centrally managed chains. Then everyone in Sisters can be a pauper cool!

Triple-Net Leases, yes and make them 15 years, so they can't change their minds.

p.s. These oil tank deals average $2M, my bet is that its still NOT DEQ approved, anybody can go to the DEQ site and can status, these sites where there are old buried gas tanks are always fucked forever. All neighbors have to do is demand a core sample, and if they find anything in the soil, they can hold up this project for another century.

Anonymous said...

Not to beat a dead dog, but ...

If you haven't seen the Bend Visitor's brochure (and haven't yet had our lunch - which you would lose reading it), take a look. I think you'll see in this little gem that the PR and Mar of Bend has reached its finest ... level of delerium.

you don't have to order it, just double-click on the icon on the vistbend.com home page. You'll get a pdf.

Here's one gem;
"In 2005, Bend celebrated a century of official cityhood. Much has changed. Once a rough and rugged timber boomtown, Bend is now Oregon’s most cosmopolitan city east of the Cascades."

Does that mean Bend was officially a "city" in 1905?

"rough-and-ready" for what? a 20-ought up the kester.

but at least it really is THE MOST cosmopolitan city east of the cascades. It's only 70 redneck vs 75 percent in some other east oregon village.

notice they do not feature Peterson's Rock Garden -- a highlight of Bend in my childhood. hell they even leave out pilot butte. Now Bend is the land of Sunday brunches at sidewalk cafes, massages, shopping, and cute dogs romping happily -- leashless.

Anonymous said...

What is the state of the bypasses being built? Aren't we going to get new ways to drive AROUND Redmond and Sisters?

*

The 'state' tim is that the Federal Government has approved a FREEWAY from RENO to Madras ALONG the I-97 corridor, but construction will not start until 2025.

What you see is city giving away the store, and State refusing to fund the boon-doggle, and NO federal dollars coming in for another 16 years.

Solution of course is SDC's, planning, ... something that the city-hall, and city-staff is incapable.

Please all 'google' the news today about Oakridge, and the war there it turns out that city-hall sold there old-mill to a Nevada developer all in secret, in exchange for jobs!!!!!!!!!!!! Sounds familiar, in Bend at least they just sold to a local cunt Borgan aka Les-Schwab.

Anonymous said...

They're like McDonalds (also selling coffee), you know what you're getting.

*

Yes, McDonalds just the other day in the WSJ they're going high-end on coffee for cheap, and last week starbucks announced $1 coffee.

Like 'coffee' is going to save sisters.

All you need to know is that you can get coffee at mcdonalds or subway, and keep moving, don't fucking stop, its a black-hole that town. You stop, they may not let you back in the slow crawl line leaving town.

Subway and/or micky-d are good because their on the end's of town.

Anonymous said...

timothy said...

With volume this low, the median under $300 could be saying that banks aren't giving non-conforming loan

*

Tim, we knew that months ago, that it was virutally impossible to get a jumbo loan in Bend.

What your seeing is the stat's are now shaping up, sure the only thing that can really sell is under $300k, why?

Because the average household income is $60k-$40k depending who you talk to, thus the very few that have 20% down, can only buy a $250k home, want to sell your fucking house, then this is the window.

Given the TON of people in this town working min-wage, and at $8/hr, they're all part-time two jobs, and thus if they're VERY lucky they might be doing $35k/year household

My issue is do these kinds of people NEED TO OWN A HOME?? Hell FUCKING NO. They have enough problem paying insurance, and buying food and gas.

Home ownership has been a con, written well by bruce-pussy's "Kunstler".

Anonymous said...

Brucey,

Here's a stock pick for you.

Informe.com, always down, and always tracking IP's.

It's going to be a better play than CACB, or CPST.

Anonymous said...

A debate I would like to see here is why do the working poor have to buy homes??

I mean running out of suckers to feed the machine is why the poor were sold credit-cards, and why the poor were offered easy-money loans.

The theory today is that with shipping our jobs 1980's to China, that construction is what has driven the economy. Thus selling homes was how the government kept employment optimized. Now of course there is a surplus of homes, of which cannot be sold to other country's.

Here Bend, where its always been "poverty with a view", where there are NO good paying jobs, and but tons of $8/hr or lower jobs. Why must we force these people into poverty associated with homeownership?? Well, I know why, but its not rational.

If your a working poor, and you MUST buy, then buy in Redmond where there are more jobs, and cheaper homes all things being equal.

In Bend the issue is 'retirees', they came, and they bought townhomes in Widgi, MT-B Village, ... They're are the cream of Bend.

This past week a new east-side development was proposed with $180k homes, why force a person into a cost of $1500/mo for a negative appreciating asset when they can rent for $800/mo and be done??

When I was a kid the rule of thumb was 25% of your income towards housing, in Bend that's $1k/mo TOPS. There is NO way today with taxes, and insurance, that even a $120k home can pencil for the working poor.

This is ALL fucking bullshit. Just a few years ago insurance was $200/mo, now it can be $500/mo, taxes are averaging $2500/yr, most of these people don't have the 20% down, so they have to pay PMI which costs a fucking fortune.

Then do this is a negative market, that will be negative for at least another five years, this shit is fucking CRUEL.

How many people does the city of bend have to fuck?? When will the fucking end??

Anonymous said...

A debate I would like to see here is why do the working poor have to buy homes??

I mean running out of suckers to feed the machine is why the poor were sold credit-cards, and why the poor were offered easy-money loans.

The theory today is that with shipping our jobs 1980's to China, that construction is what has driven the economy. Thus selling homes was how the government kept employment optimized. Now of course there is a surplus of homes, of which cannot be sold to other country's.

Here Bend, where its always been "poverty with a view", where there are NO good paying jobs, and but tons of $8/hr or lower jobs. Why must we force these people into poverty associated with homeownership?? Well, I know why, but its not rational.

If your a working poor, and you MUST buy, then buy in Redmond where there are more jobs, and cheaper homes all things being equal.

In Bend the issue is 'retirees', they came, and they bought townhomes in Widgi, MT-B Village, ... They're are the cream of Bend.

This past week a new east-side development was proposed with $180k homes, why force a person into a cost of $1500/mo for a negative appreciating asset when they can rent for $800/mo and be done??

When I was a kid the rule of thumb was 25% of your income towards housing, in Bend that's $1k/mo TOPS. There is NO way today with taxes, and insurance, that even a $120k home can pencil for the working poor.

This is ALL fucking bullshit. Just a few years ago insurance was $200/mo, now it can be $500/mo, taxes are averaging $2500/yr, most of these people don't have the 20% down, so they have to pay PMI which costs a fucking fortune.

Then do this is a negative market, that will be negative for at least another five years, this shit is fucking CRUEL.

How many people does the city of bend have to fuck?? When will the fucking end??

Anonymous said...

WHO IS GOING TO FIX BEND.

1.) old-timers

2.) RE-HO's, and their ilk

3.) Newbies

4.) courts

5.) Bend will be fucked for a long time

Anonymous said...

Sister's Plaza "COULD INCLUDE" is BULL talk, lets talk real talk ...

"Porn Video Outlet", "Sex Toy Shop", "Cell Phone Card Shop", "Hock-Shop", "Payday Loan Center", "Tan Salon", "Video Lottery Day Care Ctr", "Meth Recovery Outpatient Ctr".

{ Note the poor don't have cell phone service, they buy pay cards, thus you need pay-cards kiosks in sisters }

Did I miss any central oregon standby that real people use and not tourists??

bruce said...

Re: Informe.com, always down, and always tracking IP's.

It's going to be a better play than CACB, or CPST.


Bend Economy Board down again, eh?

I was planning on accumulating more CPST around $1.30 but the damn thing went up to almost $1.60 before hours on some news about ultra-low emission turbines for landfills and water treatment plants. Should have just put a standing buy order in rather than try to catch it, as it poked its head below $1.30 for about 10 minutes last Tuesday morning...

On the sewer system/waste treatment plant discussed upthread, Bend is in the middle of upgrading their 1970's era digesters. In 1977 they constructed two 411,000 gallon units, and in 2001 built another single 822,000 gallon unit. They are also installing new headworks leading to the digestors. Should be fine for quite a few more years. I've been doing a bit of studying preparing to pitch a turbine to them.

Just got my smile back :) Found a great denture guy, 2/3's the price and seems very experienced. Wish I had known about him a couple of years ago. It's a little one-man operation called Bend Denture Center on Revere across from Albertson's. Has his own lab, which saves money, and he does work for a bunch of dentists in town, too.

It's scary, I'm almost 50...

Anonymous said...

Thoughts on Retirement Other Than USA.

"I have no problem leaving this nightmare (USA) once I don't need to work."

*

Prior to 911, I used to travel, up to six months a year ( I quit traveling because I hate to be searched by NAZI-TSA ), and as punk kid I realized USA is ok to make money, but a nazi-death camp to live, that's why we have the most people prison in the world.

Sure you can retire in Nepal, or Belize, or Mexico, but you better hire a guard, or hell Africa, hire a dozen guards.

The problem is where your want to be like Tuscany ( central Italy ) where people live, can cost $1M for a home, and the $1200/mo for heat (electricity), ... food is cheap. There is NO cheap way to live in the best parts of EU, sure 30 years ago you could live in Greece for nothing like a king, but that is long gone.

I like rural oregon coast, because you can grow stuff, in eastern oregon ( central ), east of cascades you can't grow anything, and trees grow slow. In coast range, land is cheap, and off-grid power is cheap, and you can grow food, and tree's regenerate quickly for heating.

It's very hard to get old in third world countrys, that said if your young, I highly suggest it, especially today with internet. New Zealand is nice, and Australia is awesome, but it takes lot of money, they want $500k to get in, and you can't take their jobs, so if you go there you MUST have a ton of cash. Not an option for most.

This is all like canada, I have seen a lot return, its the same thing, they may have medical, but you can't make money.

Solution? If your young buy a vineyard in Italy, and make friends, go there as often as you can, and then retire there, and live like the peasants. If your not young, then its too late, because even if your rich, you don't have time to cultivate friend-ships, and in old towns in Italy, spain, ... if you don't know people, your fucked. They'll rob you blind, unless you befriended the mob boss when he was young.

In Italy, everyone has three children, one for the church, one for the government, and one for the mob. You get to know these people by hiring their children to do odd jobs, and after twenty years they'll take care of you. You move to these places and be an ass, and they'll rob you blind, and leave you for dead.

MStucker said...

Answer to IHTBYB.

I tell my buyers and sellers the truth. Don't buy now. And sell as fast as you can at the lowest price you can or stay forever.

I know of many brokers looking or working part time at other jobs. They never heeded the good advice about keeping 6 to 12 months money in the bank.

I will retire this fall. Have no debt, no mortgage and will stay in Bend.

I blurted out that this is going bad until 2012 and was shussed by RE office owners. As if not saying it will somehow keep it from happening. But most of them don't read Mish or Clusterfucknation or HP or HD or BB2 or ML implode. I want all the best info so I can plan for the future.

bruce said...

Re: Oakridge

Source: http://www.registerguard.com/csp/cms/sites/dt.cms.support.viewStory.cls?cid=50577&sid=1&fid=1

Nevada firm proposes major Oakridge development

By Karen McCowan The Register-Guard

Published: January 17, 2008 05:01AM

OAKRIDGE — A Nevada company has told city officials it plans to put up an 800,000-square-foot building housing up to 16 disparate businesses and creating an estimated 545 jobs on land it is buying in the city’s industrial park.

Documents obtained by The Register-Guard on Wednesday in response to a Dec. 13 public records request show that Atherton Properties proposes to bring “under one roof” more than a dozen companies engaged in industries as diverse as printing, land sales, fiberglass and water bottling.

The City Council could finalize a deal as early as tonight to sell 18 acres of the former Bald Knob mill site to Atherton. The company signed a conditional purchase agreement with the city in April that called for completion of the $628,000 deal by Jan. 1.

But the City Council voted unanimously Jan. 3 to extend that deadline by one month. City Administrator Gordon Zimmerman said Wednesday that another extension may be needed if Atherton has not submitted a final sales agreement in time for an executive session scheduled at the council’s regular meeting tonight. Oregon law allows closed-door discussions of a handful of topics, including real estate negotiations, though any formal action must take place in public.

A review of more than 200 pages of records released by the city on Wednesday afternoon sheds little light on the companies involved, and both a former mayor and a current city councilor contacted the newspaper this week to say they are unhappy about the secrecy surrounding the deal. The purchase agreement, signed only by Eugene attorney Keith Boyd as Atherton’s “managing member,” included a clause requiring the city to keep confidential “all information connected with the proposed transaction.”

Zimmerman said Wednesday that he had “tried to honor the request of a business interested in bringing a substantial number of jobs and a wide variety of jobs to Oakridge.”

Among documents released Wednesday was a single page, unsigned and with no letterhead, titled “Overview/Projection of Building Project.” It said a “group of businessmen own Atherton Properties, LLC, and also own businesses in their fields of expertise. They wish to consolidate all businesses under one roof.”

It said their plans include design and construction of a co-generation power plant “that will not only serve us — but the community also.” It calls for construction in “four to five phases” of a single building with “a total square footage of around 800,000 square feet.”

Under “Employment” the document lists 13 categories and the projected jobs for each: printing (110); machinists (63); land sales (94); title office (11); office staff (97); fiberglass (18); drivers (22); maintenance (12), co-gen plant (15); racing (45); construction (33); cabinetry (11); and logging (14) for a total of 545.

Zimmerman’s handwritten notes released in response to the records request show that he began discussing the deal with a person named Ted Thomas in September 2006. Thomas later sent e-mails to the city from a Hotmail account that did not include a corporate identifier. Zimmerman also received a Nov. 25 e-mail from a J.W. “Joe” Johnson describing himself as “one of Ted Thomas’ partners” expressing interest in a “water bottling project” on the site.

Ronel Paddock, a lifelong Oakridge resident and the city’s mayor from 1970 to 1978, said he and other residents are “frustrated and upset” by the city’s secrecy regarding the project.

“I’m not opposing the deal, but I am afraid that it will become whatever it will be without the people of Oakridge ever knowing if they’re buying into something good or something bad,” he said. “Why can’t they come to the people with what their product is going to be? I have never seen city government operate like they are now, with the secrecy. I don’t think these council members have any idea what this agreement really does.”

In a letter to the City Council last week, Paddock questioned the city’s plans to sell rather than lease the 18 acres to Atherton. He cited terms of a 1994 U.S. Department of Agriculture loan the city used to purchase the property, which call for the city to repay the federal government if it sells the land.

City Councilor Dan Rehwalt said Wednesday that he feels in the dark regarding the proposal, yet received a phone call Sunday night from an Atherton representative, urging his support and telling him, “We don’t want any dissenters.’ ”

Rehwalt said he could not recall the name of the person who contacted him.


The records released on Wednesday show that Boyd and Thomas requested contact information for councilors on Jan. 7.

Zimmerman said Wednesday that Rehwalt had been given “all the information I have” on the deal during past executive session discussions. As for Paddock, “I’m sorry, but I have a confidentiality agreement,” Zimmerman said. He added that he expects a USDA response today on the city’s request to keep the sales proceeds and invest them in cleanup and redevelopment of the rest of the industrial park.

In his April 12, 2007, request letter to the USDA, Zimmerman expressed excitement about the Atherton project.

“Should their employment projections come close to reality, it represents almost a complete reversal of the job loss caused by the closure of the (Bald Knob) mill on just 25 percent of the available developable property,” the city administrator wrote. “As you look at the list of jobs created, you will see that these are not minimum wage jobs.”

Atherton is not registered with the Oregon Secretary of State’s Office, which makes public the names and addresses of officers for companies doing business in the state.

Eugene attorney Keith Boyd, who signed the Oakridge sales agreement as Atherton’s “managing member,” said last month that the firm plans to register in Oregon.

He declined then to elaborate on the company or its plans. When the newspaper refused his request to withdraw its public records request in the matter, he said he would “no longer be available to provide … any information relating to our company’s activities,” adding: “Other than curiosity, I see no public interest or need to know in connection with our dealings with the city of Oakridge.”

Jack Orchard, an attorney for the Oregon Newspaper Publishers Association, disagreed. A public body such as the city can’t legally withhold otherwise public documents “just because you have an agreement with a private party,” he said.


Secrecy, confidentiality agreements, etc. Sure sounds familiar...

bruce said...

From the above comment on Oakrdige:

Under “Employment” the document lists 13 categories and the projected jobs for each: printing (110); machinists (63); land sales (94); title office (11); office staff (97); fiberglass (18); drivers (22); maintenance (12), co-gen plant (15); racing (45); construction (33); cabinetry (11); and logging (14) for a total of 545.

Looks like somebody is going to be going into development.

bruce said...

More Oakridge

Source: http://www.cyberfreak.com/csp/cms/sites/dt.cms.support.viewStory.cls?cid=51281&sid=4&fid=2

Oakridge postpones proposed land sale

By Karen McCowan The Register-Guard

Published: January 18, 2008 11:39AM

OAKRIDGE — The City Council again postponed action on a $682,000 deal to sell 18 acres in its industrial park, but emerged from a closed-door executive session Thursday night to accept a $300,000 sales agreement for its former public works building.

A Eugene real estate group, HomeFinders Services, purchased the 2-acre parcel along the north side of Highway 58 near the A&W/Subway restaurant. HomeFinders President Mark Nored declined to comment on details after the meeting. But sales documents released by the city showed that HomeFinders hopes to combine the property with adjacent land it owns to develop an outlet mall on the site.

Meanwhile, the city has won permission from the U.S. Department of Agriculture to keep and reinvest expected proceeds from the sale of the industrial park property. Oakridge purchased and improved the land, a former mill site, in 1995 with more than $2 million in USDA Rural Land Business Enterprise grants. The grant’s terms gave the federal government rights to any proceeds from the property’s sale.

But Jeffrey Deiss, business director for the USDA’s Oregon Rural Development office, notified the city late Wednesday that it would grant Oakridge’s request to keep the $682,000 a Nevada company has pledged to pay for the property. The agency endorsed the city’s proposal to reinvest the proceeds in cleaning up and redeveloping the rest of the former Bald Knob Timber site.

Atherton Properties LLC has told city officials it plans an 800,000-square-foot building housingup to 16 separate businesses and creating an estimated 545 jobs.

The deal had been scheduled to close Jan. 1, but the council voted earlier this month to extend that deadline. City Administrator Gordon Zimmerman said he now hopes to close the deal in February.

A half-dozen city residents, part of an overflow crowd, commented on the Atherton deal during a public comment period earlier in Thursday night’s meeting.

Hendrena “Henri” Main told the council that she hoped it had requested financial statements from the Nevada-incorporated company’s undisclosed owners “to see if they are legitimate and if they have the money to do what they’re talking about doing.”

Former Mayor Ronel Paddock affirmed the city’s need for economic development, but reiterated his previous concerns about the deal’s secrecy.

“What is this company’s track record? Has it been held accountable in other communities? Has it produced the jobs it says it will?” he asked. “Any business that would come to a community and make it a better place would send a representative and stand right there and tell us what they have to offer.”

He drew applause from people inside and outside the chamber when he added: “You, the council, need to be sure you read every single line of the document you sign for we, the citizens.”

Another longtime resident said he worried that the city could be held liable in the future for any long-term effects of toxins remaining in the industrial park land from the mill operation. And three-year city resident Vincent La­Rochelle said he was bothered that the company is registered in Nevada, “the state with the strictest corporate shield laws in the country,” and he raised concerns about the origins of the funds to be invested in Oakridge.

“I think we have to know a lot more before you vote on this project,” he said.

Oregon law requires companies to register with the Secretary of State — publicly disclosing the names and addresses of corporate officers — before doing business in the state. An Atherton spokesman said in December that the company intends to register in Oregon.

Several council members also drew applause when they responded to the questions raised by audience members.

“The lawyers are involved in this process, the (state Department of Environmental Quality) is involved in this process, and we are asking questions,” Councilor Randy Dreiling said. “It’s not like we’re going blind into the project. But I think it’s a great day that we’re getting a bunch of family-wage jobs. I know a handful of people think we haven’t handled this properly. We did this at the request of the company — this happens all over the country. This is no big conspiracy. … You’re going to get your answer soon enough, people.”

Mayor Don Hampton also assured the crowd there was nothing sinister driving the secrecy, saying the city’s entrepreneur program grants the same confidentiality to small businesses seeking to launch or relocate in Oakridge.

“It’s the same with this company,” he said. “They don’t want four or five competitors to get an unfair advantage.”

Councilor Carina Shorer said she understood that the secrecy “seems like a weird issue,” but asked: “How is anything that’s coming in going to be worse than what’s there now? It’s an eyesore. This is positive. It’s all good. Oakridge is coming into its own.”

And Councilor Rayetta Clark asked the residents to trust that the council is watching out for the city’s interests in closed-door executive session discussions allowed under Oregon law for real estate negotiations.

“Several of us have asked a lot of questions, believe me,” she said. “You elected us to ask these questions. You need to trust us.”


Just trust us--sounds like our Council ;)

Anonymous said...

mstucker said ... I will retire this fall. Have no debt, no mortgage and will stay in Bend.
**
So you must like Bend if you are stayiing, mstucker? You don't find Bend to be a living hell like the rest on BB2?

Also noticed the boys didn't scare you off yesterday. I guess because PD gave us the green light -- as long as we keep our true identities on the downlow.

And what does FTA stand for?

MStucker said...

FTA Stands for Free To Air. It is a device that one can hook up to Dishnetwork cable and get all of the channels for Free. That includes an eastcoast fed for all of the networks. You can watch 8pm programming at 5pm. The commentor had indicated that he had seen 60 min before the rest of had. Maybe he lives in a different time zone.

Yes i like Bend enough to stay. I don't like most of the changes that have happened in the past 15 years, but I have 30 years worth of good friends here.
A few harsh words are not enough to scare me off.

timothy said...

mstucker,

How well are your colleagues able to separate their desires from reality?

I've still had a few Realtors at Open Houses tell me that it's bad now, but it'll pick up in the spring. Do they really believe that? Or is it just their job to say it?

Do most Realtors believe Yun or do they believe Shiller?

timothy said...

bendbb found this census data...

YEAR STRUCTURE BUILT
Built 2005 or later 1,630
Built 2000 to 2004 9,431
Built 1990 to 1999 9,071
Built 1980 to 1989 4,466
Built 1970 to 1979 4,628
Built 1960 to 1969 1,252
Built 1950 to 1959 595
Built 1940 to 1949 411
Built 1939 or earlier 1,083

HOUSING TENURE
Owner-occupied 18,824
Renter-occupied 11,200

MORTGAGE STATUS FOR OWNER-OCCUPIED UNITS
Housing units with a mortgage 14,827 (79%)
Housing units without a mortgage 3,997 (21%)

http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/ADPTable?_bm=y&-geo_id=16000US4105800&-qr_name=ACS_2006_EST_G00_DP4&-ds_name=ACS_2006_EST_G00_&-_lang=en&-redoLog=false&-_sse=on

Duncan McGeary said...

How does the Owner-occupied and Housing units with mortgage stack up the national rates?

MStucker said...

Timothy,
Realtor and Realist do not necessarily go hand in hand.Their hopes of the market picking up is just that, a hope. I just heard on KBND a short quote that Knoop said he sees the market picking up this spring. It's a safe bet to say that, considering it always picks up in the spring. Yes we will have more than 50 sales in March. But that is not enough. Just prior to Knoop speaking the reporter said 2007 was off 26% over 2006 nationally.
I beliveve now that the national media is reporting more about the RE mess more folks will get to the panic phase quicker.
I will bet 6 months from now we will see 26% less Realtors here. They will be out of any money they may have had stashed. 50 to 100 sales in Bend per month will not support the # of Realtors we have.

Most Realtors don't even know who Shiller is, nor have they seen the graph of OP arms resting in 2010-12. Yun is their man.
Foolish

«Oldest ‹Older   1 – 200 of 516   Newer› Newest»