Sunday, November 1, 2009

Bend Finally Get's It's Perp Walk

I don't know about you, but I'm just about to pee myself with excitement over the Tami Sawyer perp walk!

I mean, how long have we been waiting for this? Years? For an honest-to-God, real Bend realtor to give us the walk of shame we've been waiting for? Seems like forever.

But, unless Sawyer gives up the ghost between now & Nov 6, she'll be going to do some time in the pokey for not telling Judge Stranglenuts where she put kindly old Doc Redwine's retirement money.

Of course, both Sawyer and hubby both think they are above the law, since they got bigger fish to fry with the FBI. Hmmm... that ain't right either. They ARE the bigger fish to fry, and they are going to get cooked by the FBI.

They think that gives them special rights, like telling Stranglenuts & Red-whine that they ain't gonna help them get their cash back.

And of course, Sawyer's lawyer probably convinced them they'd never serve a minute in the old Corn Chute Parade Of Assshole Wideners.

So wait for it folks... by next Sat. We might get our long-awaited Perp.

OK, moving on from Tami Sawyers inevitable ass-reaming in prison....

I keep trying to find people who are as worried about what is going on as I am.

It is clear to me that the US has taken the "No Pain" exit-strategy from our already fleeting Great Recession. This is that strategy in a nutshell:

Despite the fact that DEBT was the Root Cause of what is pretty much acknowledged as the worst economic meltdown in a generation, we have taken the following remedial actions:

1) Cash for Clunkers: A failed program, that cost far more on a per-vehicle basis than anyone is willing to admit, and did almost nothing except make it's participants more indebted than they were before.

2) $8,000 tax credit to home buyers. This program is the most insidious of all. It's plays on peoples ignorance in thinking that they are getting a good deal, when really they are just indebting themselves to buy a house that has had it's price artificially inflated by the credit they are receiving.

3) The vast billions spent on "job-creation". Wow. This one is just mind-boggling in it's scale. What is happening on this one is so incredible, it deserves a little expansion...

See... they are counting every single person who even receives a nickel from the Obamanator Largess, as a "new job".

Doesn't matter what they do or for how long, it's a "job".

And the shysters getting the money, are almost certainly being encouraged to "shade the truth" about everything having to do with dispensing this money.

So what is really happening, is plain to see: There's a terrible overcounting of the "benefits"of the Obama-Jeebus's turning water to wine going on.

We're spending trillions -- TRILLIONS -- on fake jobs that don't even exist.

Since the jobs are fake, you can bet your ass the "Recovery" is fake.

We are simply experiencing the effects of a "Bloody Mary" recovery; a quick jolt of that which ails ye. A shot-glass of trillions that we are borrowing from ourselves (well... our kids), so that we might put off our ills just one more day.

Here's a quick eye-opener from my best-est politico buddy, Ron Paul:

Be Prepared for the Worst

The large-scale government intervention in the economy is going to end badly.

Any number of pundits claim that we have now passed the worst of the recession. Green shoots of recovery are supposedly popping up all around the country, and the economy is expected to resume growing soon at an annual rate of 3% to 4%. Many of these are the same people who insisted that the economy would continue growing last year, even while it was clear that we were already in the beginning stages of a recession.

A false recovery is under way. I am reminded of the outlook in 1930, when the experts were certain that the worst of the Depression was over and that recovery was just around the corner. The economy and stock market seemed to be recovering, and there was optimism that the recession, like many of those before it, would be over in a year or less. Instead, the interventionist policies of Hoover and Roosevelt caused the Depression to worsen, and the Dow Jones industrial average did not recover to 1929 levels until 1954. I fear that our stimulus and bailout programs have already done too much to prevent the economy from recovering in a natural manner and will result in yet another asset bubble.

Anytime the central bank intervenes to pump trillions of dollars into the financial system, a bubble is created that must eventually deflate. We have seen the results of Alan Greenspan's excessively low interest rates: the housing bubble, the explosion of subprime loans and the subsequent collapse of the bubble, which took down numerous financial institutions. Rather than allow the market to correct itself and clear away the worst excesses of the boom period, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury colluded to put taxpayers on the hook for trillions of dollars. Those banks and financial institutions that took on the largest risks and performed worst were rewarded with billions in taxpayer dollars, allowing them to survive and compete with their better-managed peers.

This is nothing less than the creation of another bubble. By attempting to cushion the economy from the worst shocks of the housing bubble's collapse, the Federal Reserve has ensured that the ultimate correction of its flawed economic policies will be more severe than it otherwise would have been. Even with the massive interventions, unemployment is near 10% and likely to increase, foreigners are cutting back on purchases of Treasury debt and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet remains bloated at an unprecedented $2 trillion. Can anyone realistically argue that a few small upticks in a handful of economic indicators are a sign that the recession is over?

What is more likely happening is a repeat of the Great Depression. We might have up to a year or so of an economy growing just slightly above stagnation, followed by a drop in growth worse than anything we have seen in the past two years. As the housing market fails to return to any sense of normalcy, commercial real estate begins to collapse and manufacturers produce goods that cannot be purchased by debt-strapped consumers, the economy will falter. That will go on until we come to our senses and end this wasteful government spending.

Government intervention cannot lead to economic growth. Where does the money come from for Tarp (Treasury's program to buy bad bank paper), the stimulus handouts and the cash for clunkers? It can come only from taxpayers, from sales of Treasury debt or through the printing of new money. Paying for these programs out of tax revenues is pure redistribution; it takes money out of one person's pocket and gives it to someone else without creating any new wealth. Besides, tax revenues have fallen drastically as unemployment has risen, yet government spending continues to increase. As for Treasury debt, the Chinese and other foreign investors are more and more reluctant to buy it, denominated as it is in depreciating dollars.

The only remaining option is to have the Fed create new money out of thin air. This is inflation. Higher prices lead to a devalued dollar and a lower standard of living for Americans. The Fed has already overseen a 95% loss in the dollar's purchasing power since 1913. If we do not stop this profligate spending soon, we risk hyperinflation and seeing a 95% devaluation every year.

First, you just gotta love this guy. No one in DC cuts through the bullshit like Ron Paul.

And you might be wondering what he means by this:

Anytime the central bank intervenes to pump trillions of dollars into the financial system, a bubble is created that must eventually deflate.

What bubble? Hey, I don't see no bubble! There's no bubble. Right?

Oh yes, there is an enormous bubble right before our eyes. It's called this (fake) Recovery.

It's this Bloody Mary hangover cure.

And it cannot end well. There are two end-game scenarios, and both end badly.

In the first, you have to imagine that our economy is like a big bathtub. Usually, it's nice, full and soaky-warm, everyone just having a good old time.

Now sometimes, Mean Old Mr Recession comes along, and starts to drain the tub.

Well, that's when Supermen from the old Fed come along, and put a spigot right over the tub, and start to fill the tub at --hopefully-- the same rate that water is being drained.

And that is what Superman Bernanke-Span has been doing for lo these many years.

Except in the past the spigot was your garden-variety water hose. And our Supermen have been able to shut off the water just in time to keep the warm, happy tub from overflowing... cuz this means something actually worse than sitting cold in an empty tub: It means people start drowning of INFLATION! Oh no!

But in the past, due to a number of factors, not the least of which was Chinese-fueled deflation, the monster of inflation has been pretty easily avoided.

But this time is different: the drain that opened up wasn't the usual inch or two in diameter. No, it was like the entire bottom of the tub opened up. Water didn't really "drain" out; it fell out. One second it was there, and the next it was gone.

THIS is what all the talk was about our economy "collapsing" last Fall. It wasn't getting "uncomfy" in the tub... it looked like the tub itself was going away.

But our Supermen have rushed to action to do what they always have: Keep the tub full.

But what's different this time is the size of the spigot. It's not a garden hose. It's an enormous pipe.

Bernanke's Enormous Pipe

But the problem with trying to keep the tub full with such a giant pipe, is exactly what Ron Paul says it is Runaway inflation.

Not wimpy, 4-5% inflation. But real-economy-wrecking inflation.

Cuz all it's going to take is for the drain to close even a little, Bernanke to miss the signs, keep the pipe open just a hair too long, and the tub goes from empty to overflowing all over the place, and people drowning.

This is actually the worst case scenario. One that Ron Paul thinks is inevitable. I happen to mostly agree, and think it is highly likely.

The second "Good News" scenario, is that Bernanke Get's It Right.

He turns off the gigantic spigot just in time when the drain closes up.

But the problem is that All That Water comes at a price. And the price is that all future tubby-time is a little more empty. More succinctly, we are draining future growth, so that we do not have to suffer today.

The trillions we are spending today HAVE TO be repaid one way or another. We are "investing" them today in an attempt to have the payoff tomorrow be large enough to make the payments. If the jobs created today create enough of a tax-base tomorrow, we'll be OK.

But as I said earlier, and as the Bully as much as admitted yesterday, we're wildly over-counting the job creation. The costs per job are far higher than Obama-Jeebus or anyone else will admit.

Just like everything else in this "recovery". It's fake. The cost per job is far higher than anyone admits, the cost per car sold under Cash-for-Crushers is far higher than anyone is admitting.

And Yes, the prices being paid for homes in the $8,000 tax credit regime are higher than they should be.

And we have a good predicting omen for what will happen when all the fakery stops... just look at Cash-for-Crushers: demand 100% evaporated.

We were sold the idea that somehow C4C would somehow "ignite" a New Age of Automobile buying that would last forever. GM would be fine. Chrysler would be fine. You would be fine. I would be fine.

No.

No, all they did was spend a ridiculous amount to get a very few incremental sales TODAY... AND FUCK TOMORROW.

THAT is what happened.

And it wasn't long before people realized this:

Lithia Motors (LAD), 1 yr

I, for one, barely dodged a bullet on this one. Since I sold LAD at $16 and change, it has fallen off a cliff, for almost a cut in half.

THIS, though, is what we should expect post-stimulus: When and if they discontinue the $8,000 tax credit for home buyers, we should expect a post-stim hangover... DUH!

What if they don't stop it?

Then it just becomes a permanent built-in part of the price.

So... what is that called when prices just go up forever?

Right. Inflation.

And so that brings a third scenario: STAGFLATION.

Not only could we have prices that go through the roof, as Ron Paul postulates, we could have little to no growth for a generation.

WHAT does this sort of scenario look like?

Zimbabwe.

OK, to finish off this week, I guess I want to address the idea that I am a big stock-broker type... or other such bullshit.

OK, I'm not. I'm just a working dude. I do have a business degree that probably "went to far" for it's own good.

So I'm intersted in stocks, they always seem to be the Canary In The Coal Mine with respect to the larger economic picture.

Plus, I do have my pittance of a retirement fund in and out of stocks (and rarely, bonds) as I see fit.

And as I said over the past year, I went from long-on-the-sidelines, to all-in late last fall.

And people, I can tell you it was harrowing.

There was a stretch when I mentally walked away from ALL of my retirement money. It was THAT gone.

Mercifully, Obama-Jeebus & Bernanke-Span have swooped to the rescue of their Wall St brethren. Thank God. As a side-effect, I was also largely spared.

So I managed to escape this past years investment debacle pretty much unscathed.

BUT, like most things in my life, the Real Gain was the lessons learned.

One, I tried to Catch Falling Knives again. I well and truly got stabbed on most of these.

All the gains of Lithia... well, they went to cover the heinous losses of now-bankrupt Monaco Coach & Fleetwood.

And I fully understand that Lithia itself was the one instance where I did catch the knife... but just barely.

Lesson 2: This thing ain't like the others.

This time IS different. It really is. This is The Black Swan of our lives. This IS The Big One.

It's going to end badly. Again.

The ARM resets are coming. The bank failures are coming. The rising tide of unemployment is coming. The government debt crisis is coming. And the foreclosures will keep on coming. The Zimbabwe-esque End is coming.

I don't know if DJIA 3,000 is coming. But DJIA 5,000 is.

Lesson 3: Stocks may have started off missing it, but I still think they are the Canary in the Coal Mine.

I see this thing ending, on a mega-wave scale, with stocks bottoming FIRST, then RE.

Well, if you can call DJIA range trading between 3,500 and 6,000 a "bottom", and residential home prices NOT FALLING 20% a year a "bottom".

That said, I think that the former will happen first. Then the latter. For decades.

I talk about stocks a lot because it is Part I in my attempt to avoid the scourge of inflation I see coming. And it's an inflation I don't see housing participating in.

I will want to hold something that is not Cash In The Bank, when Bernanke's giant pipe-laying experiment goes bad.

I want "stuff". Gold, copper, timber, oil. Stuff. Specifically, I want companies that produce (or own) this stuff.

I still think the Play is to hold cash. For now. Until there is proof that the tub has closed up, and our economic cup will begin to runneth over.

At that point I want to own stuff.

I'm not sure how long that'll take to "play out". Probably years.

But my "real aim" is to buy back into RE... finally. Yup, to buy a house.

NOT as an investment. It won't "go up". But as a dwelling primarily (soley), but also as what I see as a decent post-speculative-busted Bubble asset that may just hold it's value over the remainder of my life.

But until that time, I wait. Cash is the place to be. Until there are "real" green shoots. Then own the "stuff" sellers. And when things have finally bottomed out, RE will have finally hit it's "L" bottom, and you can buy.

NOT "buy and make a killing!". No. Never again. But you can buy and not lose your ass.

hbm, you please Perp-walk me to bedroom?

How come no one like Whitey no more?

Buster, you type so much, my titties not sore anymore!

221 comments:

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IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And I don't know if anyone else noticed, but we also officially went below the $100K barrier!

http://bend.craigslist.org/reb/1445747178.html

That there is a real, live house at $99K.

Well, not a "real" house. It's an Eastside POS that a maggot wouldn't shit in...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

What is also hilarious about Sawyer, is she is suing "unknown" craigslist haters who have defamed her!

My God! This woman is priceless! She's going to the Ass-Reaming Center of the Universe, and she still has the cajones to file a suit against some Johnny NoGoodNik!

Classic Delusional Bend Cunt Dumbfuck.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Anyone noticed the newest Craigslist craze?

Begging for a car

Pleeze!

PLEEZE!

My grama needs an operation, and I need a car!

My kids are starving. and I NEED A CAR!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

From the Oregonian:

Stimulus spending increases the deficit: Is it worth the money?

Excerpt:

Moreover, some economists and lawmakers worry that the enormous cost of keeping the nation out of a Depression has bloated the deficit so much it could be a stubborn barrier to full recovery.

"We're already dealing with the degrading of the (U.S.) currency and interest rates are likely to come back up," said Bill Frenzel, a former congressman who now serves as a guest scholar at the Brookings Institution. "All of that will crowd out private investment."

Frenzel supported the stimulus but believes it won't have long term benefits unless Congress and the White House work aggressively to slash the deficit.

The reason is well known to economists and felt directly by consumers: When deficits are high, the government borrows more to pay the debt, soaking up money that could have been used by the private sector. With less money available, interest rates go up, which forces people to pay more on their credit cards, car loans and mortgages.

If the cost of money is too high, businesses may not be able to afford loans they need to expand, which means they can't hire new workers.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Another Good Thing comes out of Cash-4-Crushers!

Clunkers debate: Who gets the scrap fee?

Yet if you check out the Cash for Clunker's Web page (cars.gov) today, the message is quite different:

"The program requires the scrapping of your eligible trade-in vehicle ... and that the dealer disclose to you an estimate of the scrap value of your trade-in. The scrap value, minus $50 the dealer keeps for administrative fees, will be in addition to the rebate, and not in place of the rebate." Further, in agreements dealers made to join the program, they promised to take no more than $50 for their clunkers-related costs.

The Desk called the program's customer-service hot line and was told that consumers deserved all but $50 of the scrap value, and that anyone having trouble getting it should contact his state attorney general.

Since the program ended in late September, it seems that some dealers kept the money, some handed clients all but $50 and at least one -- in at least one case -- charged a buyer a $50 "disposal fee."

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Yup... you were supposed to get a pittance for your CRUSHED POS, and it seems some AUTO DEALERS were keeping the MONEY! Your money!

WHAT!

CROOKED AUTO DEALERS!

NO!

SAY IT AIN'T SO!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Even picked up by the Oregonian:

Judge orders Bend broker to jail for contempt
By The Associated Press
October 31, 2009, 10:01PM
BEND -- A Bend real estate agent found in contempt of court is facing possible jail time unless she answers questions about one of her real estate firms under FBI investigation.

Tami Sawyer and her husband, former Bend police captain Kevin Sawyer, were sued by a Bend couple who won a $900,000 judgment after claiming they loaned money to the Sawyers' firm, Starboard LLC, that was never repaid.

Deschutes County Circuit Judge Stephen Forte is holding debtor exams to determine whether the Sawyers have assets that could be used to satisfy the judgment.

On Friday, Forte ordered Tami Sawyer to report to jail in a week unless she answers questions or provides documents about the firm.

A dozen Starboard investors have won judgments against the firm or the Sawyers, and several other lawsuits are pending.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Judge Stephen Forte is holding debtor exams...

Yeah! Debtor Exams! I hope I pass! I've studied real hard Judge STRANGLENUTS!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Portland-area builders shift to small, efficient homes


Renaissance Homes will pull back from Bend to focus on its core markets in Portland's affluent suburbs.

NO! What will we do without Randy Sebastians CROSS-ARMED FLESH EATING AIDS confidence to see us through!

Someone get a bucket of DONKEY-CUM poured down my throat before I go straight!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The greatest part of that RANDY SEBASTIAN CUM-PLUNGER story above, is the ridiculous "V" shaped recovery you can see in the home building graph.

My Lord, is there no one who isn't completely deluded by the Recovery 2.0 Kool-Aid?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

People... don't listen to me.

Things are clearly on the mend with CACB EXPLODING back above a buck to $1.02/sh.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Wow. From The Bully today...

For boom counties that didn’t go bust, theme was diversity
While counties like Deschutes that relied on 2nd-home and leisure-based economies have seen biggest reversals...


You can already see what they are going to say:

"The Bully has been PRO-DIVERSITY this whole time!"

Uhhhhhh, yeah.

Costa, you cum-swallering hypocritical cock, you could not have possibly had more RE cock in your mouth at the peak.

Lying fucker.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Maybe Dunc or one of the other 7 Luddites that still takes the paper version of the Bully can expand on this fantasy..

Juniper Ridge plan is back on Bend’s agenda
Councilors are taking public feedback on the commercial section of the development


This promises to just be ridiculous...

"Santy, I want a firetruck, a rocket, a bigwheel, an astronaut, a planet, a gold house..."

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Stimulus’ job gains in Oregon are fewer than first reported

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

SAY IT AIN'T SO!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

27 jobs cut at Eagle Crest Resort, Brasada Ranch

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

OBAMA-JEEBUS! HELP US!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Stimulus jobs overstated by thousands

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

WHAT THE FUCK!

WHY HAVE YOU FORSAKEN US OBAMA-JEEBUS!!!

WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Cash-for-Clunkers Cost Us $24k Per Car

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!

IT'S LIKE POISON, I TELL YOU!!!

OBAMA-JEEBUS, SQUIRT YOUR MAGICAL CURE-ALL CUM IN MY EYES!!!!!

PLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEZE!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Cost of stimulus jobs in Texas so far: $545,000 per job

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!

CAN THIS BE TRUE!

IN TEXAS!!! NO!!!!

THEIR MEDIA IS ONLY SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE NAZI'S.... BUT STILL!!!!

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Here's a quick eye-opener from my best-est politico buddy, Ron Paul:

Be Prepared for the Worst

The large-scale government intervention in the economy is going to end badly

*

Hell yes HOMER, this is what I'm trying to tell the KUNTS.

This stimulus is going to cause Bubble-2 between now and OREO's next attempt for next election, and then post 2012 its going to be a ten year depression.

Yes, its going to end very badly, but until the dollar is worthless they'll hyper-print, and give the tax-rebate to RE to everyone that has a breath.

In 1929 the world ended, but in 1932 there was a dead cat bounce, and then thing just went to shit until WWII. Such as now where 2008 was our 1929, 2011 will be our next boom, and then post 2012 things will just turn to ugly fucking shit.

Ron Paul of course speaks the obvious truth, but there is no hope of correction, he's a pied piper of doom that would like to be prez, another little Napoleon, Nobody can fix the USA, and it ain't worth saving.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

"Well.... luckily I don't have to worry about that shit. I'm a defined-bennies government sucker-fish... my pension is good as gold..."

City of Houston is Bankrupt (So are California, Oregon, and Pension Plans in General)

The City of Houston is financially broke and it appears that the mayor who takes office in January 2010 may have to captain the City through bankruptcy procedures.
The City’s unrestricted assets were $1.2 billion short of the already recorded
corresponding liabilities these assets were needed to pay as of fiscal year end June 30, 2008,according to the City’s latest publicly available audited Comprehensive Annual Financial Report (CAFR). The $1.2 billion shortfall was a result of operating losses totaling $1.5 billion for fiscal years 2004-2008, applying the full accrual basis of accounting used in the private sector.

Apparently the City has no idea as to what has transpired financially since June 30, 2008 or will transpire this fiscal year ending June 30, 2010, on the full accrual basis of accounting. But even on the modified accrual basis of accounting (essentially cash basis) followed by the City and all other municipalities, the $236.8 million fund balance in the City’s general fund as of July 1, 2009 (the beginning of this current fiscal year) would not exist except for the City having deposited the proceeds of pension obligation bonds into the City’s general fund instead of depositing them in their legally required immediate destination, the pension plans’ bank accounts.

The City is in this dangerous financial position because its total spending since fiscal year 2003 has greatly outstripped its total revenues in that period. And the rate of growth in the City’s total revenues since 2003 has, in turn, greatly outstripped the City’s rate of growth in population plus inflation.

Thus the City’s problems are a result of greatly overspending and not a result of
insufficient revenues. All of this occurred before the current severe recession. Now the City has the added burden of the recession.

The City is in a real financial dilemma, because now its two principal sources of general fund revenues are in trouble---sales taxes and property taxes. Sales tax revenues already are dropping significantly and property tax revenues will commence dropping at an even more rapid rate after the next annual appraisal and assessment process. And the City will have to go to the voters for any contemplated rate increases in either the sales tax rate or the portion of the property tax rate allocable to operations.

It appears to us that there may be no viable alternative to bankruptcy proceedings and thereby positioning the City to regain control over its overspending, through addressing structural spending problems such as overstaffing and overly generous employee benefits.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

CONT:

What About Oregon?

Inquiring minds are reading Climbing PERS expenses face Oregon pension board, agency budget writers.

The cost of Oregon's Public Employees Retirement System is about to skyrocket to budget-busting levels.

As a result of PERS' $17 billion investment loss in 2008, every state agency, municipality and school district that participates in the system is staring at an average 50 percent increase in the base rates PERS charges to fund their employees' retirement benefits in 2011 and 2012.

That's not a doomsday scenario. Unless the pension fund's board changes its rate-setting rules, or its investment portfolio generates a 26 percent return in 2009, these rate increases are guaranteed. What does that mean to you? Fewer teachers, cops and firefighters. Less of every service that government provides. Higher fees and taxes. Perhaps all of the above.

The base rate that public agencies pay to support employees' retirement benefits could double in the next five years, according to the PERS actuary, Mercer Inc. If rates reach that level, the retirement system will gobble one quarter of every tax dollar that goes into a public agency to support payrolls.

Oregon isn't alone.

Public pensions nationwide are in crisis mode, and state Treasurer Ben Westlund points out that Oregon's pension system is still better funded than most. PERS officials also note that a major recovery in the stock market could alleviate, or even eliminate, the pain. Indeed, the system's investment portfolio has already bounced back 14 percent this year.

But here's the rub: Even if the pension system's investments return an average 10.5 percent annually for the next three years - their historical average - PERS rates will still increase to 21 percent of payroll in July 2013, according to Mercer's modeling.

If, in a slower growth scenario, investment returns are closer to their 10-year average of 4.5 percent, all bets are off. PERS' executive director, Paul Cleary, recently told the citizens board that oversees investment of the $50 billion pension fund that if 4.5 percent is the new normal, "our business model doesn't work."

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

CONT:

Pension System Busted Country Wide

It is highly likely that nearly every pension plan in the country is busted. The solution is for every city and municipality in a predicament to "pull a Vallejo" and declare bankruptcy. Please see Judge Rules Vallejo Can Void Union Contracts for details.

Deficiencies cannot be met on the backs of taxpayers. Enough is enough. It's time to end every massively underfunded public defined benefit plan in the country, by force if necessary (bankruptcy), unless unions agree to major concessions that would make the plans viable without raising taxes one cent.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Judge Rules Vallejo Can Void Union Contracts

In a groundbreaking ruling as well as a rare victory for common sense and the overall good of taxpayers, Bankruptcy Judge Rules Calif. City Can Void Union Contracts.

In the first ruling of its kind, a bankruptcy judge held the city of Vallejo, Calif. has the authority to void its existing union contracts in its effort to reorganize, holding public workers do not enjoy the same protections Congress gave union workers at private companies.

Municipal bankruptcy is so rare that no judge had yet ruled on whether Congressional reforms in the 1990s that required companies to provide worker protections before attempting to dissolve union contracts also applied to public workers' union contracts

"This will have a huge effect nationwide if it is upheld," said Kelly Woodruff, of Farella, Braun & Martel in San Francisco, representing the firefighters and electrical workers unions. Woodruff said the unions would certainly appeal if the city ultimately voids the existing contracts with the two unions. "And I think we have a good chance of success," she said.

"My understanding is that a lot of cities are watching this and particularly this motion," said Woodruff. "If the city of Vallejo succeeds in using bankruptcy to void union contracts I am sure others will follow," she said.

Vallejo attorney Norman C. Hile of Orrick, Herrington & Sutcliffe's Sacramento, Calif. office said, "This is a decision that is somewhat groundbreaking."

"There are a number of other cities and government entities watching it very closely," he said, but declined to speculate on whether others would take the step Vallejo took of seeking bankruptcy protection.

The decision will be particularly important to cities with large unfunded pension liabilities, according to James Spiotto, of Chapman & Cutler in Chicago and a specialist in municipal bankruptcy who helped advise the Senate Judiciary Committee on Chapter 9 reforms.

He said the unfunded pension liabilities for states and cities was $800 billion a few years ago and may be at $1 trillion today. "The question is whether it is an inability to pay or an unwillingness to pay. If municipalities can't provide basic services and still pay labor costs or pensions then that is a real issue," Spiotto said.

McManus held that because Congress did not impose limits on invalidating union contracts under Chapter 9, cities must only meet the requirements under the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling in NLRB v. Bildisco, 456 U.S. 513 (1984), which gives broader discretion to break the contracts in bankruptcy.

McManus did not allow for an immediate action by the city but ordered both sides back to court March 23 to tell him if negotiations with the two unions have progressed.

Woodruff said at this point the sides are not talking.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

CONT:

I am hoping this gets settled in court rather than out of court. In that regard, it's good news that the sides are not talking.

The union wage and pension agreements were absurd; the union refused to give in; and now the union got what it deserved for bankrupting Vallejo, California. This is a victory for Vallejo taxpayers, and actually, taxpayers in general as this is likely to be a precedent setting case.

Expect to see more cities file bankruptcy or threaten to, in order to get major union concession on pension funding. I am tired of sky high taxes for the benefit of the few while most private plans have suffered.

This was a good ruling. A tip of the hat goes to U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Michael McManus.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Anonymous said...

That's fucking cool to cancel union contracts.

Should cause this shit-hole to become a third world country over night.

The only reason our cops are like Mexico, or Thailand, or any third world country, is we pay our cops and have made the job into a profession.

So, now we go into a depression and every cop becomes a free-lancer, guys keep a few 100's in the wallet to pay off the cop for that DUI or ticket, cuz otherwise they'll extort you, this is how 90% of the world policeman operate, and overnight if we the public fuck the insane militarized police we have created, they will fuck us back.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Another good piece by Mish... but mainly the youtube by Peter Schiff:

Is a Home an Investment?

The last minute or so of that video is great...

Schiff basically states that houses (as dwellings) are NEVER good investments and that the structure itself always goes DOWN in value.

Homes As Consumables

I strongly agree with Schiff that a home is a consumable. It has to be maintained or its worth will head to zero. In fact, homes can be worth less than zero as has happened recently in Detroit.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

My Cash-4-Stuffers investment theme is already playing out in some of the miners:

Freeprt McMoran Copper & Gold

Up from the teens to the $70's this year...

tim said...

Butter: It's "its."

tim said...

And "gets." Who stuffed you full of extra apostrophes this morning? Two in the freaking headline?

Anyway, awesome perp walk. Not clear on where her husband sits in all this. He's not going to jail, right?

blackdog said...

"For boom counties that didn’t go bust, theme was diversity"

I didn't think there were ANY boom counties that didn't go bust. Not to the degree of Bend, of course.

Anonymous said...

That 100$ will be in the wallet to pay off the cops when they bust you for packing heat.....soon to be illegal.....But if you're not packing you're going to be easy meat for the hordes of mugger, robbers & rapists.....Crime, much of it violent, will soon be the only growth industry...Such is the situation in Argentina now; violent crime rampant, guns illegal & cops bribed to look the other way..

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Wow... at 9th & Franklin, someone is building a castle wall to keep out the rabble...

Go check it out... the wall is worth more than the structure it's protecting.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Who stuffed you full of extra apostrophes this morning?

Is that what we're calling it? I am full of something...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Anyone notice that our unemployment, adjusted and otherwise is now the same or HIGHER than Jefferson County?

Both are at 15.9% adjusted.

Our actual is 13.5% vs Jeff's 12.9%

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Wow... our ass is being kicked by long-time perennial employment black holes like Malheur & Baker counties...

Malheur: 9.3%
Baker: 8.5%

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I'm telling you... this whole "Bend As Paradise" thing is going to start wearing thin when dogshit places like Baker & John Day have better employment outlooks than we do.

Ooop...too late.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Goodbye to all that stimulus?

Investors are nervous that monetary and fiscal stimulus measures may be ended too soon.

"If the government pulls out too early and they are not spending, (and) the consumer is not spending, you've got a big issue," said Anthony Conroy, head trader for BNY ConvergEx, an affiliate of the Bank of New York.

U.S. stocks slumped on Friday in a stark reminder that investors remain highly sensitive to signs of economic weakness. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (.SPX) closed out its first down month in eight on October's final trading day as investors questioned the sustainability of the rally.

"You got a spurt that was stimulus driven," said Fred Dickson, a market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego. "The common belief right now is that the economy will move forward in the fourth quarter, but probably at a little slower pace than in the third quarter."



That's what he said: You got a spurt that was stimulus driven..

You bet your ass I got a spurt that's stimulus driven...

Anonymous said...

That's what he said: You got a spurt that was stimulus driven..

*

Just wait until 2010/2011 and see what the OREO does to ensure re-election, the 'stimulus' will even get HBM's unused dick up to 30 degrees.

This fucking loony tune DEM/PUG game is almost over, but so long as they can print a dollar and people take it the printing-press will hyper-print M1/M3. Flood this country with dollars, trouble is nobody else is doing this but us, it doesn't look good for the whole world to watch the USA do stupid shit.

I can tell you write now that money in Europe and USA is moving to Asia as quick as it can, and EU is dragging its ass and the USA is just printing the shit to maintain liquidity.

I think its well understood this thing will not end with a bang, the total collapse of the dollar will be a slow unwind over the next ten years.

blackdog said...

"I'm telling you... this whole "Bend As Paradise" thing is going to start wearing thin"

Start to wear thin? I'd say it's worn out already.

Bend is not the worst town in America, but there are thousands of towns just as good -- or better.

Bob Woodward has a long post on his "Off Piste" blog at the Source website about SF and all the fun things (including outdoor things) you can do in and near The City. Warning: Hard-core "Bend Is a Uniquely Paradisical Paradise" believers should not read it -- the shock could be fatal.

blackdog said...

"In 1929 the world ended, but in 1932 there was a dead cat bounce, and then thing just went to shit until WWII."

Right-wing revisionist bullshit. Look at unemployment rates for the period.

In 1928, when Hoover was elected, the unemployment rate was 4.2%. In 1930, following the market crash, it climbed to 8.7%. But in 1932, after two years of the Hoover/Republican do-nothing policy, unemployment had nearly tripled, hitting the highest rate in US history, 23.6% FDR took office in March 1933. By 1934 unemployment was down to 21.7%; by 1936, 16.9%. Then FDR (responding to the clamor from conservatives) made the mistake of trying to reduce the budget deficit and prematurely cut back on New Deal programs; in 1938 unemployment climbed back up to 19%. Two years later it was down to 14.6% -- a full 9 points lower than when Hoover left office.

Okay, 14.6% is not anything to brag about -- but what do you think it might have been if the US had re-elected Hoover and he spent another four years sitting around with his thumb up his ass waiting for "the market" to fix itself?

Anonymous said...

Right-wing revisionist bullshit. Look at unemployment rates for the period.

*

I don't give a FUCK ABOUT un-employment SHIT-HEAD hbm I'm like HOMER I just think about real-estate prices and stock-market prices.

Under-stand shit head?

Fuck un-employment, working-man ALWAYS has and always will be fucked ( bendfuck(tm) ) in USA, its an owner society.

It fucking KILLS me to see a lazy fucking PRINCETON GRAD urnalist being a champion for the un-employed peon of USA just makes me fucking sick.

When I say 1929 was bad talking RE and stock, and 1932 was dead-cat bounce and thereafter stuff went to shit, ... of COURSE fucking working-man FUCKED.

HBM, if you have EVER read one thing I write is that I advocate self-employment or ownership.

The working man is just a fucking SLAVE.

lastly its YOU HBM that is a fucking right-wing nut, me & homer hate the right & left, and your every much a left wing nazi as Bush, and OREO is a left wing nazi all same-same, and I don't like R-PAUL either. Just a fucking midget rePUG.

Why do I have to look at un-employment?? I don't give a fuck about this thing, nor have I ever.

Only a fucking DIP shit holds a job in the USA.

Anonymous said...

Bob Woodward has a long post on his "Off Piste" blog at the Source website about SF and all the fun things (including outdoor things) you can do in and near The City. Warning: Hard-core "Bend Is a Uniquely Paradisical Paradise" believers should not read it -- the shock could be fatal.

*

Bob Woodward his knees are gone, some think he wore his knees out by brown nosing of friends(boytoy) at SORE. No not true this hamster ran in said shoes made in singapore, but marketed in oregon, and ran hamster track in Bend an blew his knees, now HBM sorrows at night about these knees.

Buying into "BEND LIFESTYLE" destroyed bob woodwards life, and has made him a cripple. Now write a fucking story about this HBM, you know the fucking story.

Anonymous said...

The OREO can do nothing about 'jobs' other than GUBmint jobs,

And as HOMER posts on MAIN today, that at the cost of $500k per said job created there are many better ways to create a fucking job, CCC comes to mind.

USA is falling apartment, but we already knew when OREO was elected and we had the phony debate about giving the bankers ( who annointed OREO ) the money, rather than spending it on infrastructure jobs.

The OREO mindset is mass-slavery for everyone, MANDATORY NATIONAL SERVICE, exactly as HITLER called it in 1928 ( read mein kampf ).

This solves all un-employment problem, as by definition EVERYONE has a job and everyone gets a voucher.

HBM true paradise.

Anonymous said...

Warning: Hard-core "Bend Is a Uniquely Paradisical Paradise" believers should not read it -- the shock could be fatal.

*

Newbies lets revisit the CODE here that's happening before your eyes the siamese twins con-joined by the common asshole said HBM and BOB-WOODWARD were the BIGGEST fucking promoters of BEND IS PARADISE from 1990-2005, and NOW they have a deja-vu moment, this is history in the fucking making.

EVERYONE that loves BEND, hates BOB-WOODWARD, he's the asshole that put BEND's mtn-biking in OUTSIDE MAG, and brought the fucking hordes, for years OUR URNALIST BITCHES ( sounds like journalism ) had much work to do "PROMOTING BEND", but now that the honey-pot has gone DRY our bitches turn their fucking horn on that which enriched them prior 20 years,

HBM you can still walk, if not run, leave Bend while your alive, bob on the other hand is a cripple, BEND-FUCKED(TM) we call, all because BOB lived the fucking LIFE he sold to others.

IT's CALLED FUCKING "KARMA" HBM, BOB is living KARMA, he's living the SHIT he sold to suckers that he sucked into BEND-ORYGUN.

Anonymous said...

HBM, if you have EVER read one thing I write is that I advocate self-employment or ownership.

The working man is just a fucking SLAVE in the USA.

USA means United Slavery Amalgamted, always has and always will.

*

HBM and others TATTOO the fucking above on your fucking forehead.

Anonymous said...

Bob Woodward has single handedly done more to perpetuate the "Bend is Beautiful" myth than anyone else in this town. That includes The Bulletin, the realtors, the developers, etc., etc., etc. And the reason his knees are shot...that's from crouching under HBM's desk down at the Source and sucking the goop out of his meat puppet.

Anonymous said...

That includes The Bulletin, the realtors, the developers, etc., etc., etc. And the reason his knees are shot...that's from crouching under HBM's desk down at the Source and sucking the goop out of his meat puppet.

>>>

Now that's funny because BP is the meat-puppet that's why his nickname is Beaker from the Muppets.

We used to call BP Beaker-Pussy back in the day, cuz he was tall, and bald, and had no teeth. Those were the days.

Now you go out trail riding and all you see is "NO BOB" scrawled on trees and cabins. Go figure.

Anonymous said...

A little Bend Trivia. HBM, Bob Woodward, Aaron Switzer, Tom Dewolf, Jim Anderson, and ol' Dutch Stover were the original, "Men Without Balls."

Anonymous said...

Mother of all carry trades faces an inevitable bust:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9a5b3216-c70b-11de-bb6f-00144feab49a.html

LavaBear said...

>>>I don't give a FUCK ABOUT un-employment SHIT-HEAD hbm I'm like HOMER I just think about real-estate prices and stock-market prices.

Funny that... do you think the stock market crash of 1929 caused the Great Depression or was it something else?

Anonymous said...

LB,

The great depression was caused exactly as this time, it was leverage,

In the 1920's everyone with a dime was allowed to BUY one dollar of stock, and everybody with a dime was allowed to buy a dollar of home.

When they ran out of suckers to buy both everything went down 90% Kow-Jai?

Now in Great-USA-DEPRESSION-II, everybody was allow to buy $100 of house for a dollar, so prices could in theory go down 99%

During 1920's everybody bought now, and paid later, which produced over-capacity, and led to a glut, which in turned caused job-loss.

Today everybody in USA has SHIT ( stuff ) up to their fucking eye, and a ton of fucking debt.

Today nobody needs anything, there will be no jobs, and it will take massive inflation to make the debt worthless to start the entire process over.

LB, I have no fucking idea where-ever you are ever coming from. If you want to learn about the great-depression read the book by mcElvaine called "great depression".

Anonymous said...

A little Bend Trivia. HBM, Bob Woodward, Aaron Switzer, Tom Dewolf, Jim Anderson, and ol' Dutch Stover were the original, "Men Without Balls."

*

I think men without brains is more apt.

Or RE PIMPS, lets face the must you above list of 'men' were in fact pimps for HOLLERN & SMITH to dump worthless desert land on CALI's, or any sucker that read the rags that fell from the above list.

For 20+ fucking years these URNALISTS ( bob, hbm, .... ) whored, and pimped and over-sold Bend as fucking paradise.

Now that Bend is Bend-Fucked(tm), HBM and clan aren't stupid, they already have flipped the topic, they're survivors, they're the new champions of austerity.

Lack of Balls? No, if you study grand-popular delusions and tulip mania you'll see who went to jail and who walked often the biggest crooks in a bubble are not those who go to jail, but those who point fingers first at the weak.

Sawyer is a case in point the PRESS ( aka 4th estate aka woodward,hbm,costa ) can and will point the finger at the weak, .e.g. sawyer, 1031,... but the fact is the PRESS is what caused the problem, but the first will also pass the blame to the victims.

This is the real world folks.

Now HBM will call the above right-wing hysteria, ... but we know it as a truth.

Anonymous said...

Mother of all carry trades faces an inevitable bust

By Nouriel Roubini

*

Good read, but you got to admit, that you don't get the coverage this man has unless your a member of the annointed.

My only comment is that NOBODY is doing what the USA is doing massive printing of money, he suggests that other nations are following I'm not seeing that in EUROLAND I'm seeing massive austerity, and lack of liquidity.

You all know the USA could just come out looking good, because they could be the last drunk at the party with the last bottle that never went empty before the last whore passed out.

I like the fact that the ONLY wild-card the fucker pulled out of his ass is war between IRAN and US ( owned by israel ), like as if this wasn't the end game?? What is it with the USA demonizing weak nations and then invading them, hell this what HITLER did, and his people bought the shit.

As long as the USA has the nukes and prisons, it can force the world to use its paper money, and thus print all it wishes, as long as the USA can threaten IRAN with invasion if IRAN goes off the dollar for oil transactions, then the DOLLAR will live on, ..

Roubini is every bit part of the massive fraud as every over part of the fraud, ...

Just like Ron Paul, another cog in the wheel of fraud.

Anonymous said...

A little Bend Trivia. HBM, Bob Woodward, Aaron Switzer, Tom Dewolf, Jim Anderson, and ol' Dutch Stover were the original, "Men Without Balls."

*

I think this is too sweet men without balls is like "alan alda", like BP, the good hearted loser guy next door, like DP (dunc aka ned flanders).

No HBM, and Woodward ( also ex-mayor ), these are what homer would call GRIFTERS of the first order. These are calculating men, who came, and worked the gold rush for their masters like a master playing a fiddle.

Now HBM is Bend-Fucked(tm) sitting in a home he can't sell, and BOB is a fucking CRIPPLE because all the SHIT he wrote for 20+ years he actually did, and thus destroyed his body, which is ALWAYS the outcome of the BEND LIFESTYLE.

As HBM alludes but doesn't have the balls to print, the NY-TIMES has great article this past weekend, that this trend of putting middle-age men into running in NIKES (oregon/bend), .. all it does is destroy the knees and back, and lead to un-necessary surgery. ( st-charles )

I think its just POETIC BEND JUSTICE that WOODWARD is now a cripple because he really did eat his own DOG-FOOD!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

CIT files for BK... US "investment" of $2.3 bills? Gone.

Anonymous said...

gotta love the CIT scam...

LavaBear said...

>>>LB, I have no fucking idea where-ever you are ever coming from. If you want to learn about the great-depression read the book by mcElvaine called "great depression".

I've read it. I knew the answer to the question before I asked it. Just checking on you.

I agree with Butters thesis that sooner or later the tub is going to overflow and we will have the mother of all bubbles that Bernanke won't be able to handle. It's going to make this "credit crisis" seem tame. So we've got that to look forward to.

blackdog said...

"A little Bend Trivia. HBM, Bob Woodward, Aaron Switzer, Tom Dewolf, Jim Anderson, and ol' Dutch Stover were the original, "Men Without Balls."

Says the douche bag who doesn't have enough balls to put his name on his posts.

blackdog said...

"As HBM alludes but doesn't have the balls to print, the NY-TIMES has great article this past weekend, that this trend of putting middle-age men into running in NIKES (oregon/bend), .. all it does is destroy the knees and back"

Didn't have the balls to print? Did you expect me to copy and paste the whole fucking story?

I've ALWAYS said that excessive running is bad for people's joints, especially on pavement and especially for middle-aged (and older) people. I used to run quite a lot but I don't any more -- I walk.

I suspect a lot of the people in their 50s and 60s (and beyond) who you see out there pounding the pavement in all kinds of weather think it's going to make them immortal. It isn't. Fitness is not the same thing as health and being able to run marathons doesn't give you a guarantee against a heart attack, as Steve Larsen learned.

blackdog said...

"do you think the stock market crash of 1929 caused the Great Depression or was it something else?"

No, the crash was just the trigger. It was the collapse of the banking system that brought on the Depression.

Slacker said...

"I agree with Butters thesis that sooner or later the tub is going to overflow and we will have the mother of all bubbles that Bernanke won't be able to handle. It's going to make this "credit crisis" seem tame."

A question for you guys...will this doomsday scenario be restricted to the US, or will it be global? More to the point, will Mexico be involved in the onslaught? Cuz everyday it looks better and better to me.

blackdog said...

Why is Tami Sawyer threatened with jail for contempt but her husband the ex-cop isn't? Aren't they both withholding information in defiance of the court's order? I don't get it.

blackdog said...

"lastly its YOU HBM that is a fucking right-wing nut, me & homer hate the right & left"

Well, from what I can deduce from your posts, you just hate everybody and everything. Must really suck to be you.

blackdog said...

"And as HOMER posts on MAIN today, that at the cost of $500k per said job created there are many better ways to create a fucking job, CCC comes to mind."

Agreed.

The rich called FDR a "traitor to his class" -- i.e., the rich.

Obama also seems to be a "traitor to his class" -- the middle class. The kid raised by a single mom was awed by the privileged plutocrats he encountered at Hahvahd, and he still is.

The comical thing is watching the wingnut ranters trying to paint him as some kind of wild-eyed socialist or communist.

Anonymous said...

The comical thing is watching the wingnut ranters trying to paint him as some kind of wild-eyed socialist or communist.

*

Come on HBM, HL-MENCKEN would have told you that both heads of the Siamese assholes OWN both left&right ends of the debate.

This is all comedy.

Remember our original premise here going back to early 2008, the ONLY reason the plutocrats placed a black-face on the prez, was to make it easy to send nigggers and beaners off to war.

Anonymous said...

A question for you guys...will this doomsday scenario be restricted to the US, or will it be global? More to the point, will Mexico be involved in the onslaught? Cuz everyday it looks better and better to me.

*

Slacker, this is why I'm already settled in Malay, if you haven't noticed folks are dying by the 100's of in Mexico as we type, the civil war down there has already started, in the next few years it will spill over,

Safe place in western hemisphere? Alaska or Canada if you white.

Or you can go to NO Idaho or Montana and starve.

NOPE mexico is game-over.

The drug wars is now civil war, and its now spilling over into LA & San-diego, and soon refugees will be coming to Orygun.

USA is doing the DUMBEST shit, but like Roubini says above JAPAN is also fucked, with USA close to follow, Germany is doing things right, ... can't say that about UK.

A lot of smart money men have already moved their familys to IRELAND, aka Dublin.

I take a an ass to water, but I can't make you drink, thanks very much, I'll have SE Asia.

Rogers is in Singapore, a man of my own heart.

You have to remember the future is Asia, the rest of the world is Bend-Fucked(tm). Even though Germany is strong, their public debt is already peaked on private taxation,

You all must remember that the ASIAN rice-bowl was broken 20 years ago, they're now back to 101 where children take care of parents.

Imagine that!

Anonymous said...

Obama also seems to be a "traitor to his class" -- the middle class. The kid raised by a single mom was awed by the privileged plutocrats he encountered at Hahvahd, and he still is.

*

Obama is part of the OLD school Chicago machine, what outcome did you expect?

Who the fuck do you think paid his black ass bills for the last 20-40 years?

He's just paying back those who put him up where he is, ...

HL-Mencken would be laughing his ass off at the OREO, and US morons who elected, but I like you voted OREO cause it was my only ANTI bush vote.

St Paddy said...

Here it is coming right up.

Official: Obama Considering Next Stimulus Package
by CalculatedRisk on 11/02/2009 06:33:00 PM
From Bloomberg: Obama’s Advisers Are Considering Second Stimulus, Locke Says

President Barack Obama’s advisers are “seriously” considering proposing a second stimulus measure to boost the economy, Commerce Secretary Gary Locke said in an interview.

Locke said another stimulus would be “very targeted and specific and we need to be mindful of the deficit as well.”
Atrios notes: "Had a pet theory that they'd wait until unemployment rounded that magic 10% mark."

We could see 10% on Friday. The unemployment rate was 9.83% in September (before rounding); an increase of 0.17% from August.

Although there probably were fewer job losses in October than in September (BLS reported 263,000 jobs lost), if a few more people were participating in the work force - perhaps looking for one of the scarce holiday retail jobs - the unemployment rate could easily hit 10% for October. If not in October, then probably in November.

Anonymous said...

A second stimulus? God save us. How much this time will go toward infrastructure? 18%?

Already they need to give a nod of acknowledgement to the deficit -- they know they are getting awfully close to crossing the line.

Slacker, you need to go to Chile. Arica if you want to live cheaply, quietly and safely. (It's boring, but the weather's nice.)

Anonymous said...

Yes, I have written about Africa, before Kenya, and Nairobi have the best weather in the world, 70F all year round and sunny everyday in Nairobi, but you have to live behind bars so you don't get your throat cut when you sleep.

Ahh, even paradise has the nuisance.

I think that chile is too far south, its like living in Canada, this is why I like the equator, good weather all year round.

Anonymous said...

Economically I fear to say that much of South America will go Mexico already most of South America is a mess, even COSTA-RICA is no longer a white-guys paradise.

Things change quickly, just 20 years ago BAJA-CALIF was paradise for geezers, now that is Bend gone.

Nothing lasts for long thanks to Woodward and HBM's "OUTSIDE MAGAZINE", that has destroyed every secret paradise on earth with their constant media drumbeat and commercialization and promotion. Sending grifters in mass to every paradise on earth to be lost.

Paradise LOST like Bend. Yes, once upon a time Bend was paradise.

Anonymous said...

Nothing lasts for long thanks to Woodward and HBM's "OUTSIDE MAGAZINE", that has destroyed every secret paradise on earth with their constant media drumbeat and commercialization and promotion. Sending grifters in mass to every paradise on earth to be lost.


*

This is WHY I never personally ever specifically mention my 'paradise' by name, cuz I don't want company.

Love,

blackdog said...

"Yes, once upon a time Bend was paradise."

No, it wasn't. It was a nice small town. Over-marketing it as "paradise" has turned it into an ugly sprawling mess.

Anonymous said...

No, it wasn't. It was a nice small town. Over-marketing it as "paradise" has turned it into an ugly sprawling mess.

That's your less than humble opinion, Dickhead.

Anonymous said...

Any word on the October sales/medians?

Anonymous said...

I thought I was Dickhead...?

Anonymous said...

"OUTSIDE MAGAZINE"


And what is their readership -- like 50,000 subscribers? Doubt that this had much of an effect around here.

Anonymous said...

"OUTSIDE MAGAZINE"


And what is their readership -- like 50,000 subscribers? Doubt that this had much of an effect around here.


I've never seen it anywhere except the doctors office.


On another note....man the commercial vacancies are getting to the point where you really can't not notice. It used to be the new buildings that never got occupied but now, downtown & 97 are looking a little rough.

Anonymous said...

Seems like just a year ago since HBM told us Independents wouldn't swing back to vote Republican.

Anonymous said...

>Any word on the October sales/medians?<

Bend SFR only:
170 sold @ $222k median price.
6 sold under 100k and 9 over 1 mil.
Median price by section over past 90 days:
NW $334k
SW $229k
SE $187k
NE $158k

Marge

Anonymous said...

Green shoots? Nah, dead cat bounce with cash for clunkers houses, that has now been extended until April 2010. The bully will be kickin their heels high on this next week...all the good news as homes price rise $24k in 30 days. Yippee, we can all take our heads out of the sand, the good times are rolling back.

Anonymous said...

Seems like just a year ago since HBM told us Independents wouldn't swing back to vote Republican.

Kinda funny isn't it. Seems like there's a whole lotta stuff that HBM (that mighty prognosticator from Princeton) says, that just doesn't quite pan out.

Anonymous said...

Kinda funny isn't it. Seems like there's a whole lotta stuff that HBM (that mighty prognosticator from Princeton) says, that just doesn't quite pan out.

kinda like that guy who calls everyone DICKHEAD...

Still waiting for the 300 days of ice fog to start.

Bewert said...

Re: I don't give a FUCK ABOUT un-employment SHIT-HEAD hbm I'm like HOMER I just think about real-estate prices and stock-market prices.

Under-stand shit head?

Fuck un-employment, working-man ALWAYS has and always will be fucked ( bendfuck(tm) ) in USA, its an owner society.

It fucking KILLS me to see a lazy fucking PRINCETON GRAD urnalist being a champion for the un-employed peon of USA just makes me fucking sick.

####

Who you planning to rent to?

Bewert said...

Re: What is it with the USA demonizing weak nations and then invading them, hell this what HITLER did, and his people bought the shit.

####

With the help of the media BS from the (Hitler/teabag) right:

Current example of BS:

http://tinyurl.com/yc8nt92

Yeah, yeah, I know...just watch until your sick of it and watch the last thirty seconds. Quite striking.

Bewert said...

Re: You have to remember the future is Asia...

####

You have that right.

What most Americans don't know is China invented gunpowder over 100 years before the US declared independence. We are not taught world historyso much as our own. We think we are the best, we know everything. The current health care debate is a great example. Something created 60 years ago is held up as the gold standard.

Past is future.

Bewert said...

...over 1000 years...

http://asianhistory.about.com/od/asianinventions/a/InventGunpowder.htm

Bewert said...

Re:
I think that chile is too far south, its like living in Canada, this is why I like the equator, good weather all year round.

####

What do you do during monsoon eason?

Bewert said...

Season...fuck my typing is getting bad. 5 AM wakeup...

Bewert said...

Re: "OUTSIDE MAGAZINE"


And what is their readership -- like 50,000 subscribers? Doubt that this had much of an effect around here.

####

650,000

You are off by an order of magnitude.

Google is your friend.

Bewert said...

Re: It used to be the new buildings that never got occupied but now, downtown & 97 are looking a little rough.

####

Worse than when I left? It seemed pretty bad at that point.

Bewert said...

Re: A question for you guys...will this doomsday scenario be restricted to the US...

####

I laughed when I read this. Asking the experts, eh?

Bewert said...

Re: 6 sold under 100k and 9 over 1 mil.

####

Most promising stats you have had in a while.

Check back soon...

Anonymous said...

"What most Americans don't know is China invented gunpowder over 100 years before the US declared independence. We are not taught world historyso much as our own."

Well, I hear that fact from kids all the time. I have also heard from kids that the Chinese invented spaghetti.

I think the problem isn't that Americans aren't taught factoids like these. I think the real problem is that history is often taught as factoids, and the important part (the movements of ideas and power and technologies and resources and concepts through time) is barely addressed.

Because history is taught in such a mindless, boring way, as factoids, we forget what we learn.

World history IS taught. Americans do learn about world history, not just American history. Go look at the world history textbooks in the schools--I have and they are pretty damned good. It's just that most American kids don't give a damn about it, and promptly forget it.

Anonymous said...

"You are off by an order of magnitude."

He said readership, not circulation. My guess is that 5,000 a month READ it and 645,000 page through it nervously in the doctor's office because they are too old for Highlights magazine.

Anonymous said...

The DIAL numbers for Millbrook Estates are interesting. Someone actually paid $366k at the top for one of those. More recent purchases have slid down into the 200s. And one is for sale now for $185k (the same one that sold for $366k just two and a half years ago.

Love how the Realtor doesn't wat to waste her time... "The house is very clean and in good shape, the major downfall is that it backs up to brookswood."

Yeah, she's had it with you whining about the "location." She's so fed up that she doesn't even dignify Brookswood with its proper-name-capital-letter.

Anonymous said...

"What most Americans don't know is China invented gunpowder over 100 years before the US declared independence."

Yeah, but we were good at capturing/bribing German scientists and getting them to produce an atomic bomb for us.

Duncan McGeary said...

100 years?

Try 1000 years.

Anonymous said...

"100 years? Try 1000 years."

Didn't read the rest of the thread, did you Dunc?

Anonymous said...

Dunken MyDonuts is back!

Bewert said...

Re: I think the problem isn't that Americans aren't taught factoids like these. I think the real problem is that history is often taught as factoids, and the important part (the movements of ideas and power and technologies and resources and concepts through time) is barely addressed.

####

That is the most cogent statement I've ever read from you.

How do we fix it in the age of Twitter?

Bewert said...

That Sawyer thing is a bit weird.

What are they hiding? How many million does it take to be worth a few years in the pen? Creepy.

Bewert said...

This guy is way more of an American than any teabagger:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/11/5/801105/-How-to-Get-the-Republicans-to-Back-Down

No disguise.

"They used to call President Harry Truman 'Give 'em Hell Harry'. But President Truman said, "I don't give them hell; I just tell the truth and they think it's hell." I'm telling the Republicans this: Lives are at stake. If you can't stand the heat on health care, then get out of the kitchen."

Anonymous said...

"Yeah, but we were good at capturing/bribing German scientists and getting them to produce an atomic bomb for us."

no, we got the german scientists to produce rockets for us. the atomic bomb was developed by jews who fled hitler's europe (mostly hungary) for america. hitler drove out the best nuclear physicists, to our great advantage.

Anonymous said...

"hitler drove out the best nuclear physicists"

perhaps hitler was just a stooge of the amercan military-industrial complex. the whole point was to get the best brains onto our shores.

tim said...

"That is the most cogent statement I've ever read from you.

How do we fix it in the age of Twitter?"

I thought I was always cogent. Ah well.

We fix it with visualization. We make history interactive. We animate textbooks.

Anonymous said...

"That Sawyer thing is a bit weird.

What are they hiding? How many million does it take to be worth a few years in the pen? Creepy."


That Spewert thing is a bit weird.

Why is he still here? How many millions of post does it take to realize you should never pick up the pen? Creepy.

LavaBear said...

>>>We make history interactive. We animate textbooks.

So we turn the history books into comic books and then we go out back and have civil war reenactments? Sweet. Can we give General Lee some super human powers or a flying horse or something. It would also be nice if we don't use the throwback jerseys and go all new Nike retro when we line up. Those old gray versus blue was boring.

blackdog said...

Another bubble-related perp walk may be in the offing: Today's Bull reports that veteran local real estate appraiser Kevin Halligan is under investigation by a state regulatory board for turning in inflated appraisals. Halligan, of course, denies any wrongdoing and says he is trying to "quietly and subtly slip into another profession."

Yeah, I bet he is. He'd probably also like to quietly and subtly slip out of town.

tim said...

"So we turn the history books into comic books and then we go out back and have civil war reenactments?"

We engage kids so they want to learn and understand more.

Why not show troop and supply movements on this classic chart, and show the seasons as time goes by?

http://www.orangemath.com/graphics/napoleon_russia_graph.jpg

Anonymous said...

For Dunc: Regarding Commercial Re

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-commre-outlook5-2009nov05,0,974015.story?track=rss

Anonymous said...

Today's Bull reports that veteran local real estate appraiser Kevin Halligan

doh!

Live by it, die by it...

I think he's also been trying to unload some property for several years without any success.

Can't say that I am overly shocked on this but thanks for the post.

Anonymous said...

My discussions with appraisers a year or so ago were decidedly weird. They seemed much more optimistic than the Realtors I talked to. Maybe because the Realtors spend more time in the trenches and the appraisers only get called out when something is happening.

He may have just been overly optimistic, discounting all negative market pressures and comps.

LavaBear said...

>>>Why not show troop and supply movements on this classic chart, and show the seasons as time goes by?

That sir, is one frickin awesome chart. I don't remember having that in any of my history book but then again I was a lazy ass American teen who probably blew that week off and went skiing.

tim said...

"That sir, is one frickin awesome chart. I don't remember having that in any of my history book but then again I was a lazy ass American teen who probably blew that week off and went skiing."

It wasn't in your history book, probably. It should have been.

That's why I say we have to make kids give a damn. It's our fault, collectively, that the textbooks are dull and the lessons aren't always inspiring.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Tufte

LavaBear said...

>>>It's our fault, collectively, that the textbooks are dull and the lessons aren't always inspiring.


Bruce/HBM, can you jump in here and explain how it's all a right wing conspiracy/Republican plan to dumb down the populace?

Growing up I look back and I remember learning the most from one teacher who started the first day of class by tossing the textbook in the trash. We all cheered. Great theater. But it turned out that teacher worked at teaching and following her own lesson plan as opposed to just following the textbook page after page. I look back now and think....holy crap that must of been a huge amount of work! Good thing she was still young. And damn, I learned the most because of how much she tried.

The other teacher I learned the most from was a mean ass cranky bitch who wouldn't let anything slide. Page after page of the text book and if it wasn't perfect holy hell.

Two sides of the same coin I guess.

tim said...

"Bruce/HBM, can you jump in here and explain how it's all a right wing conspiracy/Republican plan to dumb down the populace?"

Well, crap, I was about to blame the teachers' union. You done took the steam right outta me.

LavaBear said...

>>>Well, crap, I was about to blame the teachers' union. You done took the steam right outta me.

You knew it was coming. And it will.

I'm still not over the chart from earlier. I want to order it and hang it on my wall.....I don't feel so bad that it wasn't in my textbook as a child because I'm pretty sure it wasn't in young Adolf Hilter's text either.

Anonymous said...

Congratulations TIANNA M. KEENAN, A SINGEL PERSON AND TIM FRATTO, A SINGLE PERSON.

You were the 3000th person to receive their Notice of Default in Deschutes County this year.

Your prize is to be able to live mortgage and rent free from 8/1/2007 until 3/17/2010 - unless your bank decides to postpone your foreclosure even more.

--------------

Yes, it really does appear that this person hasn't made a payment in 28 months and is just getting their NOD now. I guess that's one benefit of living in La Pine.

Anonymous said...

Way to go Keenan and Fratto! What have you been doing with all that mortgage money? Saving up for a big party?

LavaBear said...

They haven't paid since 08/2007. It's a Countrywide loan, what do you want to bet BofA has it on their books at full value? Shadow inventory indeed.

Should we chip in and send them a burritos or something?

Anonymous said...

Tami: "We won!"

http://www.ktvz.com/global/story.asp?s=11418225

Anonymous said...

Please explain the Tami Sawyer as Jane Doe lawsuit from the front page of the Bulletin. I read it, but it just made my head swim. Gave me a "maybe I'm still dreaming" feeling.

blackdog said...

Me too. Imagine something like that going on right here in little ol' Bend, Ory-gun, where the folks are friendly, honest, upright and pure.

The bursting of the bubble has stirred up the cesspool and all manner of interesting shit is bobbing to the surface.

Anonymous said...

Notice how the article lacks the exactly the info that you know everyone cares about. WHEN was this consensual relationship? While she was married to the cop, or before? WHAT drugs were dispensed? WHAT is the timing between the relationship an Tami getting the large sum of investment money from the gynecologist?

Good lord.

Anonymous said...

After the old guy died in their house, I thought we had maxed out the weird. Someone please tell me it's not going to get any weirder than this.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Turning around Tetherow's troubles: ‘Not if ... just when'

Wow, I thought Fox News was stupidly biased...


“Tetherow is going to be a terrific community,” said Bill Bernards, spokesman for Spring Capital. “It can't help but be because the real estate is just too good, it has the number one golf course, its proximity to (Mt. Bachelor ski area), the town ... It's just that it will take more time than people originally envisioned. It's not if, it's just when.”

Bernards said Spring Capital recently secured a five-year loan extension for its Tetherow investment and can wait out market turmoil while the economy recovers. He said the resort's ownership is strengthening, and that the property's uniqueness practically guarantees success.


This piece is just a story about a blizzard of foreclosures at Tetherow...and yet, endless puffery about how awesome it is, and thus failure is impossible.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Everyone who has become involved at Tetherow has watched their money turn to shit... but still success is inevitable because BEND IS TOO GOOD TO FAIL.

the real estate is just too good, it has the number one golf course, its proximity to (Mt. Bachelor ski area), the town...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Look at this:

Gwil Evans, a Bend businessman who owns a residential lot at Tetherow, said he has no regrets about buying land at the resort.

“Like any other property you bought two years ago, it's probably worth half now, but I think that location will be among the first to come back and will do better than any other (Central Oregon) golf course location,” Evans said. “They really created a quality environment out there, and I don't think they went overboard. It's really sensibly done and just really, really nice.”


I love how Costa puts words in peoples mouths. This guy has NO REGRETS. Really? Not even losing HALF his money?

You bet your ASS he regrets losing all that money. But that'll never see print in COSTA'S XANADU. He'll always find someone and put words in their mouth...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

My God, I cannot wait till the Bully goes down...

blackdog said...

"the property's uniqueness practically guarantees success."

The Doctrine of Tetherow Exceptionalism (a corollary to the Doctrine of Bend Exceptionalism) has now been promulgated.

blackdog said...

"My God, I cannot wait till the Bully goes down..."

Don't hold your breath.

tim said...

So, blackdog, would you say that Tetherow is a concentrated form of Bend?

The Bulletin actually gained circulation recently. It's not going down yet.

Anonymous said...

Can you believe they're still searching for this asshole?

http://www.ktvz.com/global/story.asp?s=11464891

Anonymous said...

“Like any other property you bought two years ago, it's probably worth half now"

not really. had he bought in a nice neighborhood in san francisco then it would be worth about 98% now.

Anonymous said...

Well, to be fair, I think what he meant was, "If you were dopey or delusional enough to buy in one of the worst bubble cities in the country, your property is probably worth half now"

Anonymous said...

Can you believe they're still searching for this asshole?

how do you know he was an asshole?


not really. had he bought in a nice neighborhood in san francisco then it would be worth about 98% now.

and paid 5 times as much to be packed in like a sardine....now that's living!

Anonymous said...

not really. had he bought in a nice neighborhood in san francisco then it would be worth about 98% now.
__________

and paid 5 times as much to be packed in like a sardine....now that's living!
__________

true, but that's part of the deal when you want to be in a metro area with millions of high-paying jobs with plenty of room for advancement. worth it to some (or san fran prices would not be sky-high and holding) but not others (retired people and hunter/gatherers).

Anonymous said...

"that's part of the deal when you want to be in a metro area with millions of high-paying jobs with plenty of room for advancement"

Bruce, is that you? Writing in from SF instead of SLC? We love you man,

LavaBear said...

>>>not really. had he bought in a nice neighborhood in san francisco then it would be worth about 98% now.


Defaults moving up in SF.

Funny, this article from the Chronicle this morning seems to dispute what you are selling. It's ok though if you need to keep believing what you are believing.

Anonymous said...

Funny, this article from the Chronicle this morning seems to dispute what you are selling. It's ok though if you need to keep believing what you are believing.
__________

The situation is the opposite of what you assume. I wish the trend would arrive in SF's desirable neighborhoods. I want to buy!

Further, if you had read the article you would have seen it is about the suburbs. I'm looking in the city.

Anonymous said...

>> Gwil Evans, a Bend businessman who owns a residential lot at Tetherow, said he has no regrets about buying land at the resort. <<

Gwil Evans paid $1.4M for his current BT home. Now on the market for $1.1M. Paid $650K for his Tetherow lot now worth less then half that. Wonder what he will buy next?

LavaBear said...

>>>Further, if you had read the article you would have seen it is about the suburbs. I'm looking in the city.

Patience...it is coming in a big way. Shit is sticky for those that have but soon enough they too will give up the ghost. It's only a matter of time. Even in the city the option arms and pick a pay will blow up. The stats don't lie.

LavaBear said...

>>>he has no regrets about buying land at the resort.

I wonder what it would take for this man to feel regret. It's merely a flesh wound but damn that vein is starting to gush.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Good stuff Dunc!

blackdog said...

"Patience...it is coming in a big way. Shit is sticky for those that have but soon enough they too will give up the ghost. It's only a matter of time."

How many years now have you guys been predicting that SF will turn into Detroit?

Home prices in SF actually seem to be trending back up:
http://pics4.city-data.com/ctrends/ctr2092.png

LavaBear said...

>>>How many years now have you guys been predicting that SF will turn into Detroit?

It's not going to be Detroit. Period. But it's going to be hit hard in the next wave of pain. The first wave is pretty much behind us and that was the sub prime bomb. Next up are all of the real fancy loan "products" that people used in the more expensive areas of Cali that are set to explode. In the next two years as they all reset and recast is when reality will set in for SF. It's not going to be Detroit but it's not going to be pretty either.

Duncan McGeary said...

Since we actually in the process of selling a townhouse in a nice part of S.F., I'd say prices are down 10 to 20%.

Won't know till it sells.

And the first time I checked was a year or two ago.

blackdog said...

"Since we actually in the process of selling a townhouse in a nice part of S.F., I'd say prices are down 10 to 20%."

Compared to when?

Duncan McGeary said...

Like I said, I probably checked a couple of years ago. Our asking price is about 10% below the price I figured back then. But we've plunked some money down renovating the kitchen, too. So, I'm think about 15% less than we could've gotten, perhaps.

Who knows, really.

Slacker said...

The high-end condo market in SF is getting hit pretty good too. A friend of mine got in pre-construction on a unit in a new building near downtown...the purchase price was $2 million. A year and a half later, it was time to do the financing, etc., and close on it. Lo and behold, the price for similar units in the same building were down to $1.3 million or so, and similar deals could be found in any of several other new developments in the same area. The developers told him that price was a promo deal, cuz they couldn't get enough people to fill the units. My friend balked, perfectly willing to walk away from his deposit and just pick up a significantly lower priced unit somewhere else. They rather quickly dropped his price to acommodate.
I had told him NOT to buy the condo in the first place, as prices were bound to come down. But he insisted that prices in SF would NEVER go down...too much demand, high paying jobs, etc. Same old same old.
So when he told me about his "promo" price, and what a good deal it was, I kinda giggled a little "I told ya so."
Funny thing is, he doesn't view it as the price of SF real estate "falling". He buys the whole line by the developer that only these few units will be offered at such prices to get the requisite number of tenants in...I forget what the deal was, but for some reason they HAD to have a certain percentage of the building occupied...maybe insurance requirement? Local government requiremment? I dunno. Anyways, he insists it's this little fluke that essentially gifted him a $2 million condo for $1.3 million. He insists that the unit would EASILY sell for $2 million. He INSISTS that SF real estate prices have not come down. He INSISTS. All evidence to the contrary.
He's a funny bird.

Duncan McGeary said...

Well, I hate to be squishy about my numbers -- but I saw estimates of much higher prices at the peak... I just never believed them. Thought they'd crash, anyway.

Anonymous said...

prices for the good stuff in san fran have come down a little, but just a little. i'm waiting to buy because there are certainly no bargains now. i expect there to be bargains at some point though.

the stock market recovery seems to be pumping some money back into the bay area though, at least for now.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Fed’s Lockhart Says Commercial Real Estate May Weaken Recovery

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Dennis Lockhart said the economy will probably recover slowly from the deepest recession since the 1930s because of rising bank losses, especially in commercial real estate.

“Now that growth has resumed, the overall objective of economic policy should be to bring about a durable recovery and an environment that reduces unemployment as quickly as possible while containing inflationary pressures,” Lockhart said today in a speech in Atlanta. “The process of achieving this objective will necessarily involve judicious removal of government supports and the normalization of monetary policy.”

Policy makers have expressed concern that rising commercial real estate loan defaults could pose a risk to U.S. banks and hinder a recovery. All 12 Fed district banks reported a weak or declining commercial real estate market, the central bank said Oct. 21 in its Beige Book business survey.

Defaults on commercial real estate loans totaled $110 billion, or 6 percent of all such loans, in the second quarter. Banks worldwide have recorded more than $1.6 trillion in losses and writedowns since the start of 2007, data compiled by Bloomberg show. ...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Fed's Yellen: Economy Beset By 'Substantial Slack'


That said, the recovery "is likely to be gradual and remain vulnerable to shocks," Yellen said. She referred to what the recovery's course might look like when plotted on a graph. What she expects is akin to an economy that loses ground sharply, with only a slow recovery that struggles to cover what was lost: "If I were to describe it, it would look something like an "L" with a gradual upward tilt of the base.

"Unfortunately, my own forecast envisions a less-than-robust recovery," the official said.

Yellen noted "households have been pummeled and prospects for consumer spending are cloudy.

"It's particularly sobering that labor markets continue to deteriorate badly" and "unemployment could well stay high for several years to come," the central banker said.

There are big challenges before the economy. "With such enormous reservoirs of slack in the form of high unemployment and idle productive capacity, we need a strong rebound to put unemployed people back to work and get underutilized factories, offices and stores humming again," Yellen said....

LavaBear said...

Bay area Sept sales stats by zip

Anonymous said...

"Bay area Sept sales stats by zip"

yes, in the areas i'm looking in the city, prices are stubbornly resilient. i'm happy to wait though. what goes up must come down, someday, and i'll be ready.

Anonymous said...

Well, if Duncan has a townhouse to sell in S.F, that means he will be an instant millionaire, when the sale closes.
Hey Dunc, how about a loan?

Duncan McGeary said...

We're the executer, not exactly the same as the inheritor.

Lois had kids.

Anonymous said...

Good news in the Bull today...it's over, the housing market has hit bottom and now it's on the way back up.

Anonymous said...

It's amazing that these people will tell flat out lies to make money...maybe I would too if I was hungry. Anyone who has been paying attention knows the shadow inventory is over 5K properties.

I guess when you are hurtin, you'll say anything. Kinda like my experience while shopping for new commercial digs. I had a specific rent cap I was willing to pay and I knew I would find. On one building, the price was right but there was some bullshit with the bank so I backed away. Before I did though, the agent told me that the rest of the suites had been rented out in the last week and someone was interested in suite I had made an offer on. "we need you to sign the lease today or the owners want to give it to the other party". I said , "great, let them have it". Never heard from that agent again and you can drive by the building today and listen to the sweet melody of crickets chirping 24/7.

I am sure there are some people in the RE business that are honest and ethical but....

Say anything if it puts money in your pocket. How fuckin creepy is that?

blackdog said...

"it's over, the housing market has hit bottom and now it's on the way back up."

How many times does this make that The Bull has called the bottom? Somebody should be keeping score.

tim said...

Thanks God it's over. Great news!

Anonymous said...

How many times does this make that The Bull has called the bottom? Somebody should be keeping score.

With reliable information from Bratton, it really really just might be the bottom....right?

Anonymous said...

With Buster gone this blog has suddently become G rated -- at least once you get beyond Butter's titty pics. I don't find myself wincing anymore.

blackdog said...

"With reliable information from Bratton, it really really just might be the bottom....right?"

Didn't Bratton say three years ago that the market would rebound within six months, or something like that?

blackdog said...

Housing forecast: It’ll only get better

Bend appraiser says market is on the verge of a turnaround

By David Fisher / The Bulletin
Published: February 26 2008

Bend appraiser Dana Bratton is bullish on Central Oregon’s real estate market.

Bratton told a crowd of 700 real estate brokers, mortgage originators, bankers and contractors at the Bend Chamber of Commerce’s annual Real Estate Forecast Breakfast on Monday that the battered local housing market is on the verge of a turnaround.

To be exact, Bratton said, somewhat tongue-in-cheek, it’ll turn on April 25.

“You’ve got 60 days to make that great buy, and then they’re onto us, and Bend is going to lead the nation out of this housing recession we’re in,” Bratton said to cheers and applause in the Riverhouse Convention Center. “Why not? It’s gonna start here, OK? So I say make the move — don’t miss the boat.”

Okay, I was off by about a year.

April 25, Bratton Day -- mark that date. You've got less than five months to make your big score in Bend real estate! Get out there and buy, buy, buy!

blackdog said...

Market looks to be on plateau for now

Buyers are likely to encounter more bargains, officials say

By David Fisher / The Bulletin
Published: October 11. 2007

The key word in Central Oregon real estate this year is flat.

Flat sales.

Flat price appreciation.

And, at least in the short term, a flat outlook for all three of the major real estate sectors — residential, commercial and industrial.

But, in the wake of a flattened real estate boom, there may be some bargains hiding in the dust for anyone who’s willing to look for them.

That was the basic picture drawn Wednesday morning by two panels of developers, appraisers and brokers put together by Opportunity Knocks, a volunteer executive training group, as part of Economic Development for Central Oregon’s annual Industry Month.

About 80 people turned out to hear Bratton Appraisal Group President Dana Bratton; Renaissance Homes owner Randy Sebastian; Hayden Homes President Dennis Murphy; Cohen Skovborg LLC Principal Jordy Skovborg; MHi Corp. owner Jean Wood; Fratzke Commercial Real Estate Advisors broker Brian Fratzke; and Realtors Norma DuBois and Priscilla Martin dissect the state of the local real estate industry in the Central Oregon Realtors Association’s Fourth Street conference room.

Flat? We should only have been so lucky!

blackdog said...

Real estate outlook: slower, but healthy

Days of easy money are over; '07 will require creativity

By David Fisher / The Bulletin
Published: February 28. 2007

Want to make money in local real estate this year?

This is what three prognosticators say you should do:

* Sell industrial land in Bend. Buy it in Redmond.

* Build apartments in Bend.

* Buy in downtown Redmond. And think condos and downsized housing in Bend.

The easy money of the housing market boom is gone, but plenty of opportunities still exist, Compass Commercial Real Estate Services broker Darren Powderly, Bratton Appraisal Group President Dana Bratton and Becky Breeze and Co. principal real estate broker Becky Breeze told a sold-out Bend Chamber of Commerce crowd Tuesday morning.

Anonymous said...

You know The Bulletin. It's like that kid in grade school. The one who ws so easy to pick on.

Anonymous said...

Restaurants must be awesome places to work.

In Bend: 25 positions, 500 applications.

In Redmond: 5 positions, 250 applications.

Anonymous said...

Two weeks and we haven't even made it past 200 comments. I officially pronounce this blog Bend-dead.

Anonymous said...

I second your motion!!!!

Anonymous said...

Dunc's blog has taken the ball...

Anonymous said...

Post counts have more to do with the quality of titties than anything.

Want more posts, show better titties. Several weeks ago we had cowboy hats and bikinis...poof, 300+ posts in a week. This week, cheap malay hookers only gets you 170 comments in two weeks.

Anonymous said...

Bend elementary student dies after recieving h1n1 vaccine.See bulletin for story.

blackdog said...

Where? I couldn't find that story in The Bulletin either in print or on line. Nor was it on the KTVZ or KOHD websites.

You wouldn't be some anti-vaccination fanatic trying to start a rumor, would you?

MDHN09 said...

the swine flu thing.. did not see the article either. First round of this flu is not a problem, its when it comes back the second time that is an issue- Stress as we KNOW is the biggest reason people get sick, the nwo is timing this flu perfectly with our financial concerns. So the second time this rears its head- likely the time our economy is being felt at a new level- these people are not dumb they can plan well- PREPARE YOURSELF- guns and organic food and true kindness is the only way

Anonymous said...

"Bend elementary student dies after recieving h1n1 vaccine.See bulletin for story."

I read that. I also saw it in the Source and the Nugget, in Sisters.

blackdog said...

"I also saw it in the Source"

No way in hell did you see it in the Source. I would definitely know about that.

"Stress as we KNOW is the biggest reason people get sick, the nwo is timing this flu perfectly with our financial concerns."

The dumbest thing about these New World Order conspiracy theories is how they assume the conspirators are super-humanly smart. Organizing a global flu pandemic to coincide with a global economic crisis -- now THAT ain't easy.

If "they" were half as smart as the conspiracy theorists think "they" are, the world probably wouldn't be so fucked up.

blackdog said...

BTW what we are experiencing now IS the second wave of H1N1. The first wave broke out last spring in Mexico, spread around the world, then went into dormancy as flu viruses do in the summer. The second wave erupted this fall and a third wave probably will hit in the spring. The second wave typically is the worst; by the time the third wave arrives a lot of people already have had the flu and therefore are immune. That's what happened with the killer 1918-1919 flu and with all other flu pandemics we have records of.

Anonymous said...

"Bend elementary student dies after recieving h1n1 vaccine."

yes, i think i heard that a kid got the vaccine and then, within hours, got hit by a bus.

Anonymous said...

"This week, cheap malay hookers only gets you 170 comments in two weeks"

So what. Ignore this comment. Those malay girls are hot. U.S. white women are like white bread - no nutrition - then certain death.

Anonymous said...

"No way in hell did you see it in the Source. I would definitely know about that."

Just like shootin' fish in a barrel. HBM, did you know that there's no such word as gullible in the dictionary? Huh? Did ya?

MDHN09 said...

he dumbest thing about these New World Order conspiracy theories is how they assume the conspirators are super-humanly smart.

super-humanly smart, You are right. The nwo is not of this world. Has anyone checked into the 2009 crop circles?? Shit don't you bubble heads know anything. This shit going down is....from a differnt place of control and ohh so good and has been planned for very long time. Not waking up to this now is like saying no RE bubble in 2004, but soon everyone will be denying it as it it was 07. NASA has secrets my friends.

Slacker said...

"super-humanly smart, You are right. The nwo is not of this world. Has anyone checked into the 2009 crop circles?? Shit don't you bubble heads know anything. "

bwahahahaha!

Feel free to leave your brains at the door....

MDHN09 said...

hundreds of billions of stars in hundreds of billions of galaxies..you are right we probably are the only ones and the crop circles are a bunch of drunk Englishman with plywood measuring mathematical symbols perfectly in the dark. Oh yea and the changes happening economically, socially and environmentally have nothing to do with spirituality or human evolution- I can sell you a nice palmer house on the east if you like.

You all have tapped in to see that this RE market was a fucking illusion- now look deeper- My God do you not realize that as you read this you have 100 trillion cells doing 5 trillion things a minute- you are a god damn fucking miracle.

ok so maybe crop circles are a bit out there, but it is f'ing fascinating....

http://www.youtube.com/user/MDHN09#p/f/8/8mAdrSvOgwI


i have been on this blog for 3 years, held back- but no more this blog is dead now.. i can post with freedom

Slacker said...

Once again, feel free to leave your brains at the door...

Anonymous said...

This is what happens when made up character Buster is played out and person decides to post as whackjob MDHN09.

Buster was a better character, but is played out.

blackdog said...

"the crop circles are a bunch of drunk Englishman with plywood measuring mathematical symbols perfectly in the dark."

Definitely. It's their favorite thing to do after the pubs close.

What is it about this blog that it attracts every loony-toon in the universe?

Anonymous said...

Housing getting hammered. Starts down and mortgage applications down.

Again, the numbers are declared to be "surprising."

Over and over and over and over, the bad news on housing is "surprising."

Anonymous said...

Vroom! Vroom!

http://www.bendbulletin.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20091118/BIZ0102/911180351/1041&nav_category=

MDHN09 said...

you guys will actually like this one.. don't worry no crop circles...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bkzdme4WCrA

Quimby said...

(crickets chirping)

Anonymous said...

I'm still waiting for the 300 day ice fog massacre. At this rate, we're gonna have ice fog related deaths all summer.

Whine on...

Anonymous said...

What the hell are you talking about?

Anonymous said...

What the hell are you talking about?

you must have been absent the day some kook said the weather forecast called for 300 days of ice fog.

MDHN09 said...

Obama will be holding a press conference sOOn. He is a puppet, wake up and know who really pulling the strings

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQgF4zzfQKQ&NR=1

Slacker said...

Don't worry...the aliens are our friends. In fact, tghey already live among us...just ask Lou Dobbs.

Besides, just think about it for a sec...a new alien race descending on our planet? They're gonna need some place to live, right? Woo Hoo! Housing collapse solved!

blackdog said...

"Besides, just think about it for a sec...a new alien race descending on our planet?"

It's an encouraging thought. The human race has done such a great job of fucking up the Earth that maybe it's time for new management.

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