Sunday, November 22, 2009

Bend Bubble 2 -- The Final Curtain

Welp partners, it's been a hell of a ride.

A 3 year ride to be exact. As it started on Sunday December 17, 2006, so shall it end. This time for real.

Why? Well, I suppose in part for the same reason the original & kick-ass Bend Bubble Man shut his down: You just get caught up in other things. It's hard to keep up sometimes.

And I suppose I was much more interested in "Calling The Top", than cataloging the long, slow, agonizing demise. Face it, store closure after store closure, foreclosure after foreclosure, perp walk after perp walk, BK after BK, suicide after suicide... it can get monotonous & depressing.

But I suppose mainly it's because, to paraphrase a retarded asshole:

Mission Accomplished.

Yeah, The Bubble proper is over. We're not in a bubble anymore. Haven't been for awhile. We're in the deflationary phase. Well into it. And unfortunately for a lot of folks, it's not even close to over.

This thing will be an "L" shaped recovery, At Best. At Best.

"But, Bend is still one of the most overvalued RE markets in the country!", you say.

True. Especially true if by "overvalued" you mean "it has the farthest still to fall", because Bend is not even close to a "bottom".

And I can't help but keep quoting the word "bottom", because I see a painful and very long-lasting decline as the horizontal part of that "L" bottom. The sharp downdraft may be over... now the teeth-pulling life-sucking slow bleed-out begins. That's what I mean by "bottom". This thing is far from being over.

Just a quick review of where we've been:

So, as stated, we were here in Dec 2006. Gloom-and-dooming pretty well. Raising more hackles than awareness. Most of the comments have progressed with almost textbook precision over the past 3 years in parallel with the 5 Stages of Grief:

  1. Denial
  2. Anger
  3. Bargaining
  4. Depression
  5. Acceptance
Woo... we took it hard in the Denial & Anger phase. There were some upset Realtors & Builders that this blog even existed.

Bargaining? "OK, fine... there is a slowdown, but we'll bounce back better than ever!" Costa, DuBois, and many other Kool-Aid addicts are still riding that horse.

We've hit Depression & Acceptance. Perhaps another reason to shut'er down...

I started this thing to raise awareness that something is severely wrong with the mindset of Bend. It went beyond the Bubble here, although it was almost certainly a root cause. Ironically, it was best stated by one of our best known RE cheerleaders, Mike Hollern:

Developer Mike Hollern blames the Doctrine of Bend Exceptionalism – the peculiar notion that Bend is so special that it’s immune to outside economic forces. “We were overwhelmed by the amount of money pouring in,” Hollern told Costa. “We thought that we were different from the rest of the country. It turned out that we are not so much [different].”

I talk about this pretty extensively in my Feb 29, 2009 post.

The Doctrine of Bend Exceptionalism

What a great term for something so widespread, so insidious, and so economically deadly to a place, that even it's main proponent could no longer deny it's lethality to his company, his town, his region, his World.

The Doctrine of Bend Exceptionalism encapsulates So Much of what is wrong with this country. We have been convinced, All Of Us, that We Are Owed More. Always More. More. More. More. Never Less. No Matter What. No Matter The Cost. We are God's Chosen Flock. We have a Date With Destiny. We Are Rightful Heirs To A Kingdom. Nothing is to good for us.

1 house? Pathetic. I have 2.

2? I have 3, and I've never been to 1 of them.

3? What a loser, I have 5, none are rented out, and I only make $22K/yr!

And so it goes.

Our problem is not so much economic, as it is pathological. I know people don't like to hear that, even on this blog, because it goes after everyone, it is not analytical and it's fatalistic in a way.

But it's true. We've got an extreme case of Cultural Hedonism. We're a nation of Narcissists.

We've learned that All Our Whims (not "Needs") Should Be Satisfied. No Matter What. Now.

"What the fuck does this really have to do with the housing bubble?", you ask.

Hmmmm... let's see.

It's still going on in case you're interested. The above one-upping and keeping up with the Jonese, was the Consumer Side.

But we're starting to find that the Producer Side was at least as Greedy, Corrupt and Criminal. Think it's just Tami Sawyer, or 1031 Assfuckers? Think again:

13 indicted in Bend real estate case
By Jeff Manning, The Oregonian

In the largest fraud case so far to arise out of Oregon's real estate boom and bust, a federal grand jury on Friday indicted 13 people on a variety of bank fraud and conspiracy charges stemming from the 2008 collapse of a Bend real estate development company.

The grand jury indicted Desert Sun Development founder Tyler Fitzsimons and several of his former employees as well as two mortgage brokers, former loan officers with West Coast Bank and Umpqua Bank, and others.

Banks loaned about $41 million to Desert Sun or its employees through a series of falsified loan applications and ultimately lost $19 million on those loans, prosecutors allege.

The Oregonian first broke the story of the problems at Desert Sun in May 2008. The grand jury charged Fitzsimons, a 31-year-old Prineville native, with multiple counts of bank fraud, conspiracy to commit bank fraud, money laundering and making false statements to banks. Also charged were three other former executives of the now defunct company, Jeremy Kendall, Shannon Egeland and Garret Towne. "The conduct alleged in these indictments is typical of what has caused so much havoc in the mortgage and financial sectors," said Kent Robinson, acting U.S.Attorney in Portland.

Fitzsimons, Egeland and Towne declined comment. Kendall and the numerous other defendants could not be reached.

Desert Sun, a developer of both residential and commercial real estate projects, embodied the land-rush mentality that arose during the economic boom.

Desert Sun offered to build at cost new homes for its employees and certain friends and family. In return, the company said it wanted to split profits 50-50 with the owner should they choose to sell their homes.

In central Oregon's red hot housing market, it seemed like a sure moneymaker. More than 30 people signed up.
Financial institutions like Columbia River Bank, the now-defunct Community First Bank, West Coast Bank and U.S. Bancorp eagerly participated, lending $16 million to participants.

Desert Sun clerks and construction workers making $20,000 a year soon found themselves on the hook for mortgages of up to $400,000.
According to the indictment, Desert Sun executives helped falsify loan applications, forged employees' names and put thousands of dollars into the workers' individual bank accounts to make them seem more credit-worthy than they actually were.

Desert Sun got the construction loan proceeds. But it never built many of the promised homes. Some participants found themselves owing hundreds of thousands of dollars with nothing but a vacant lot to show for it.
In addition to the Desert Sun employees, the grand jury indicted Bend resident Jeffrey Sprague, 46, who was a loan officer with West Coast Bank. He and Barbara Hotchkiss, a loan processor who worked with him, were charged with bank fraud for allegedly helping prepare and submit false loan applications.

Also charged were two Bend mortgage brokers, Shaun Little, 41, and Del Barber Jr., 44, for allegedly participating in the scheme.

Barber has already been banned from the mortgage business by state regulators for unrelated violations.
Prosecutors appear to be sending a strong signal with these indictments that they intend to crack down hard on even relatively minor transgressions.

Among the indicted was Terri Ausbrooks of Bend, who was among the victims of the Desert Sun home loan program. She found herself more than $300,000 in debt for a house that Desert Sun never built.

Yet, the grand jury charged Ausbrooks with bank fraud for overstating her income and not listing a debt she owed to Fitzsimons in her loan application.

Inflated loan applications abounded during the real estate boom. The biggest, most respected banks in the industry began to accept "stated income" loans, sometimes called "liar loans" because they allowed the borrowers to list whatever earnings they saw fit.

Apart from the home ownership program, prosecutors also leveled additional charges against Fitzsimons, Egeland and Kendall for allegedly defrauding a number of banks in a series of commercial construction loans.

Prosecutors allege that Desert Sun repeatedly secured construction loan draws from a number of different banks based on phony construction progress reports.
Without the falsified reports, the banks wouldn't have released the money.

Robert Brink, 58, then a loan officer at Umpqua Bank, allegedly helped Fitzsimons pull off the scheme. The grand jury charged Brink with making false statements to the bank, alleging on five different occasions Brink filed bogus construction inspection reports with the bank.

"The economic hit that a community like Bend takes in a case like this one is very real," said Arthur Balizan, special agent in charge of the FBI in Oregon, which helped investigate the case along with the IRS and the Oregon Division of Finance and Corporate Securities.

"When a development company collapses under the pressure of fraud – as alleged in this case –we are left with millions of dollars in losses, empty lots and abandoned buildings. Everyone loses."

And there is just so much more of this to come. Remember the local piece where an appraiser basically stated that he stopped getting hired because he would not produce fraudulent appraisals at the BEHEST OF LOCAL RE BROKERS?

Yeah, when you HAVE TO commit fraud to survive in your business, you know that you & your industry are well & truly FUCKED. RE in Bend is STILL 100% FUCKED.

But not Garden Variety Fucked.

Fucked Long & Hard for the rest of our lives.

And it is due to the people, mortgage & RE brokers, appraisers, The Fucking Media, CACB, COBA, and every other cheerleading fraudster that made a buck from this disaster.

Let me inject another Bully story that has just come up this morning:

Homes for auction, buyer be prepared
It’s been a busy year on the Deschutes County Courthouse steps, where foreclosure auctions are conducted. Few auctions end in a sale, but every once in a while, a fantastic deal comes along. Of course, you need to have the money on you.

By Andrew Moore / The Bulletin

Before the housing bubble, Paul Helikson, a Bend-based process server, would conduct foreclosure auctions on the Deschutes County Courthouse steps every Friday at 1 p.m. On a busy day, there might be five auctions.

Now, Helikson conducts foreclosure auctions every day at 10 a.m., 11 a.m. and 1 p.m., with an average of 20 homes on the block each day.

With more than 3,100 notices of default — a filing that initiates foreclosure proceedings — recorded in Deschutes County so far this year, Helikson is busy. By comparison, there were 221 notices of default filed in 2006.

But where there’s crisis, there’s opportunity. Usually gathered on the courthouse steps along with Helikson are a small band of investors ready to scoop up properties for cents on the dollar.

They have to pay cash on the spot if they win. They also have to do their research, as a home sold at auction is sold as is, meaning broken pipes, missing appliances and even tax liens are their headaches if they submit the winning bid.

“Caveat emptor fully applies to all the auctions we do, and I think that’s the biggest thing,” Helikson said.

Helikson estimates only 3 percent of the auctions he conducts end with a sale, with the remainder either postponed or concluded without a buyer, meaning the property is turned over to the borrower’s lender.

Occasionally, however, a gem — a home in a good neighborhood or priced far below market value — goes under the gavel.

“There are (incredible deals), said Gene Norton, a Bend investor who’s been attending auctions for the last three months. “But you have to do your research ... it’s a pretty interesting scenario.”

Foreclosure process

Generally, a notice of default is filed against a borrower by the lender’s trustee after the borrower is 90 days delinquent on his or her loan, said Tami MacLeod, an attorney with Karnopp Petersen in Bend who specializes in foreclosures.

The notice must be sent to the borrower via certified mail as well as physically served to the property. On occasions when the home is vacant, the notice is posted on the property after the third attempt. The notice also must run once a week for four weeks in a local general circulation newspaper.

In addition to notifying the borrower that his or her loan is delinquent, the notice also lists a time, date and location for a sale of the property by auction if the loan is not brought current.

By law, the trustee must wait 120 days from the date the borrower is notified to conduct the sale. Therefore, the sale is set roughly 150 days in advance of the filing date, in case there are delays in notifying the borrower, MacLeod said.

During those 150 days, borrowers can attempt to remedy their default by bringing the loan current, either by catching up their payments or by working out a loan modification with their lender. A borrower also can sell the home to satisfy the default.

In cases where the likely sale amount is less than the loan amount — which has become common in the last two years due to the steep depreciation of home values — the borrower also can work out what’s called a short sale with the lender, whereby the lender agrees to forgive the amount of the loan not satisfied by the sale.

In years past, such forgiveness was treated as income by the Internal Revenue Service, but the rule was relaxed by Congress in 2007 and applies through 2012.

If there is no remedy for the loan in default, the home or property goes to auction.

Auction process

Before the auction, the trustee, in consultation with the lender, sets a minimum bid, according to Helikson, who is hired by trustee companies to conduct their auctions. The amount is either posted a few days before the auction or, in some cases, is phoned in to Helikson minutes before the auction.

Most trustee companies have Web sites where they list foreclosure auction properties and their minimum bids. A prominent site is

Generally, the minimum bid is the amount of the outstanding loan plus any interest, late fees, lien amounts or costs the trustee accrues arranging the auction. By law, banks can’t ask for more than that, MacLeod said.

However, Ryan Strasshofer, a principal with Gorilla Capital, a Eugene-based company that buys homes at foreclosure auctions in Deschutes County and 14 other counties in Oregon, said more lenders are discounting their minimum bids to entice buyers.

“(Banks) are essentially trying to recoup as much money as they can and are using trustee sales more than ever before to get rid of these properties,” Strasshofer said. “They are maxed out on inventory and would rather take $50,000 at auction than spend $20,000 to clean (a house) up and list it to make $60,000.”

Strasshofer said his company, which also operates in Idaho and Arizona, has purchased homes at auction for as little as 30 cents on the dollar.

“The fact is that with most notes out there, the note is worth more than the value of the property,” Strasshofer said.

MacLeod confirmed that she’s noticed more banks lowering their minimum bid to less than what they’re owed on the mortgage.

“I saw one where the (minimum) bid was $100,000 less than what was owed,” she said.

Walter Molony, a spokesman with the National Association of Realtors, said the foreclosure auction market nationwide remains small, comprising only 1 percent of sales volume, he said.

While foreclosure auction prices may sound appealing to some, MacLeod warns anyone interested in purchasing a home in a foreclosure auction to research the property as much as possible. This can be difficult considering it’s impossible to authorize an appraisal without the owner’s permission.

“Bidders on the steps need to be careful about it (because) these are not your typical sales,” she said. “Odds are you have never set foot inside the house, have no idea what condition it’s going to be in ... and it’s not uncommon for people to strip their houses (before they leave), so it’s a buyer-beware situation.”

Said Strasshofer, “We put a lot of time into research.”

Reading the scripts

Helikson said a common misconception among people new to the process is that bidding starts at zero, which is never the case.

When the hour of the auction begins, Helikson begins reading the “scripts,” as he calls them, the legal documents that announce the sale, identify the property and spell out the terms, mainly that a successful bidder has to pay in cash and is purchasing the property with no guarantees.

Helikson speeds through these, having nearly memorized them in the 20 years he has conducted foreclosure auctions.

The “script” also calls for any interested bidders to pre-qualify for an auction. In other words, bidders must prove to Helikson they have the money on their person and can turn it over immediately after the sale is concluded. Only cash or cashier’s checks are accepted.

“Most people know what the (minimum) bid will be and come with that plus a buck,” MacLeod said.

But sometimes, knowing how much cash to bring can be a quandary for bidders if the minimum bid is not made known until minutes before the auction or if they suspect a bidding war might break out.

In such cases, bidders usually bring a cashier’s check for what they guess will be the minimum bid amount as well as cashier’s checks in smaller increments that they can add on.

Helikson doesn’t make change, so any amount submitted over the winning bid is returned when the title is transferred, which must occur within 10 days of the sale, MacLeod said.

As Helikson works his way through his auction scripts, a familiar refrain is, “Going once, going twice, going three times, going back to beneficiary,” meaning the property has not sold and becomes the property of the lender.

Another familiar refrain is the announcement of a postponement. Banks often postpone auctions because they are still sorting through a short-sale offer or some other contingency, MacLeod said.

But banks can’t postpone an auction forever. If they have not conducted an auction within 180 days of the auction sale date listed on the default notice, they are required to rescind the notice and start the whole process over, MacLeod said.

If a home isn’t sold at auction, the lender takes ownership.

Tom Unger, a Portland-based spokesman with Wells Fargo Bank, said the bank tries to list a property after the auction “as soon as possible.” Unger said some homes are easier to list than others depending on what sort of cleanup needs to be performed, but the goal is to get houses listed with a local real estate brokerage quickly.

Molony, with the National Association of Realtors, pegs the number of bank-owned properties currently sold nationwide at 20 percent of all properties.

Sheree MacRitchie, a Bend Realtor who will assume the presidency of the Central Oregon Association of Realtors in 2010, said the number in Bend is roughly 35 percent.

Foreclosure impact

Helikson, whose company also serves notices of default to borrowers, estimates half of the notices he serves are on vacant homes, indicating to him they were either purchased by investors or homeowners who have walked away from their home.

Of the remaining half, 25 percent are served to owners still in their homes and the other 25 percent on renters living in a home that is being foreclosed on.

There have been lots of investors who have defaulted on homes, said Helikson. He can tell because he’ll recognize the same name on different properties. Some names he’s read 10 or 15 times, he said.

He said he doesn’t feel sorry for them, but he does feel for the families that have lost their homes.

On occasion, homeowners will come to their home’s auction to witness the event but generally do so quietly, Helikson said.

“They’re wanting closure, or want to know how long they have to move out, but typically people aren’t too mad because the process has been drawn out so long,” Helikson said.

The flip side, he notes, is all the homes that go through foreclosure re-enter the market at prices that are more affordable, which helps the community in the long run.

“First-time homebuyers are doing very well in this market,” Helikson said.

The median price of a single-family home in Bend rose in October to $220,000 on sales of 175 homes, the most in any month since August 2006, according to the Bratton Report, a monthly real estate sales analysis released by the Bend-based Bratton Appraisal Group.

Median prices for single-family homes in Bend have twice dipped below $200,000 in the last six months. At the market’s peak in May 2007, the median price was $396,000.

The collapse of the housing bubble also has helped Helikson’s company, Tri-County Legal Process Services. It has doubled in size the last two years, from approximately six employees to 12. Helikson estimates he conducts 75 percent of the county’s foreclosure auctions.

Another company that conducts foreclosure auctions in Deschutes County is Central Oregon Legal Services.

MacLeod’s firm, Karnopp Petersen, also conducts some foreclosure auctions for Bank of the Cascades.

Strasshofer said Gorilla Capital is the state’s largest buyer of homes from foreclosure auctions. While the company is profit-driven — its goal is to resell properties within 30 days after purchasing them at auction with a markup of as little as 10 percent of the purchase price — the company helps communities by quickly converting foreclosures into occupied homes, he said.

Gorilla, whose business model is dependent on volume, often resells its homes to buyers who have secured traditional financing, which includes many first-time homebuyers, Strasshofer said.

“We’re getting these things cleaned up and back on the market,” he said.

For investors like Norton, homes purchased at a foreclosure auction can be lucrative as rental properties. That’s because most of the rent is positive cash flow since there’s no underlying mortgage to service after buying the home with cash. Also, because of the discounted purchase price, the homes have a better chance to be sold at a profit as the market rebounds and home prices increase, Norton said.

“You have opportunities for short-term gains and long-term gains,” he said. “You make a little bit of money while waiting to make larger sums of money later, and that might take eight to 10 years, so you have to be prepared, (but) I’m a very conservative investor. The best deals may still be down the road.”

Nationally, more than 14 percent of homeowners were behind on their mortgage payments or in foreclosure in the third quarter, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Thursday, indicating many more foreclosed homes could yet hit the market.

In Deschutes County, the pace of notices of default filings appears to be slackening, though it’s not yet a trend. There were 310 notices of default filed in September, 261 in October and 180 through Nov. 19.

With unemployment figures still high and affecting a broad group of homeowners beyond those who took out risky loans, Helikson looks to remain busy for a while.

“The thing that sticks out the most is a year and a half ago, it was usually lower-end homes (at auction) and now it’s homes over the whole spectrum,” Helikson said. “There’s not a community that hasn’t been affected by this, from million-dollar homes to $100,000 homes to business complexes to apartment complexes. The whole spectrum is being foreclosed on.”

The Doctrine of Bend Exceptionalism. Look what it's got us. 20 homes a day getting foreclosed. Don't buy the bullshit that Bend isn't shrinking. It is. BIG TIME.

Bend Exceptionalism: We're Always Right. Doing what we're doing CANNOT be wrong, because we are God's Chosen People. So this isn't STEALING or FRAUD or MONEY LAUNDERING. No. I'm Tami Sawyer (YOUR NAME HERE), so this is OK.

Our Exceptionalism validates, buttresses, and finally supports our LIES & OUR CRIMES.

Guaran-fucking-tee you that Tami Sawyer, Sun Development, Epic Air, and 1031 Butt-Fuckers (and a hell of a lot I'm not including) ALL thought they were doing nothing wrong. Maybe that changed a little when the FBI came calling.

Narcissism. Exceptionalism. Egoism. Hubris. Belief that we are better than anyone else, we deserve the best of everything, NOW, and no cost is too high to get it.

That was how this bubble got started by both consumers (RE buyers) and producers (fee earning intermediaries). It is also the philiosophy fueling the Current Bubble... which I will try to talk about later.

I tended to never broach this Narcissism subject, because it struck many as WRONG for this blog. Maybe they're right. It's a really amorphous term with no really strong direct link to the creation of the RE-Asset Bubble in this country.

But it is my belief that it is the CORNERSTONE of the creation of the bubble. And it's CULTURAL. It's become PART OF THIS COUNTRY'S ETHOS.

Which makes me think we have more Bubbles to face in the future.

I wanted to divert next into something that I call The 1% Business Plan.

Bend is The Home of The 1% Business Plan. What is it?

Well, you know that if you are starting a business, you map out your idea, the finances, and all the niggly details about what you think will happen, right?

And there are always the "unknowns". How much demand, the costs of items, the ups, the downs, various projections, and all that. Pretty standard.

But most places plan for something like, say a 20-25% downturn as their "PESSIMISTIC" scenario. A real ball breaker.

Conversely, they plan for similar sized (maybe slightly more... these are business people, they're supposed to be optimistic) upside, say 25-30%.

This is Everywhere Else.

Not Bend.

No. In Bend the Pessimistic Scenario is PLUS 20% EVERY YEAR FOREVER. That's the DOWN SIDE.

The upside starts at 40% a year, and typically goes up from there.

Yes. In Bend, +20% is the new DOWN. Even when things are falling apart.

Maybe this concept is best explained by... surprise... a Bully article!

Over next 10 years, Central Oregon expected to see strong job growth
Economists say it will be fastest rate in the state

State economists estimate that 11,000 new jobs will spring up in Central Oregon by 2018, while the state as a whole will see an increase of about 163,000 total jobs.

Job growth in Central Oregon’s three counties — Deschutes, Jefferson and Crook — is expected to rise the fastest in the state, increasing from 2008 staffing numbers by 14 percent, to 92,340 jobs. That’s compared with statewide growth estimated at about 9 percent.

“Over the last 10 years, Central Oregon has grown tons faster than the state,” said Carolyn Eagan, Central Oregon’s regional economist, who helped compile the projections for the region. “There was nothing to me that would indicate that wouldn’t happen after the recession.”

The region could use some of those jobs today. The three counties suffer from some of the state’s highest unemployment. In September, the latest data available on a county level, seasonably adjusted unemployment rates were 15.9 percent, 15.9 percent and 19.7 percent in Deschutes, Jefferson and Crook counties, respectively.

The state, in its job growth projections, didn’t say when those jobs could be expected to start showing up — only how many are expected to be added, in total, over the years leading to 2018. But state economist Tom Potiowsky, in a speech last week in Bend, said he didn’t expect any job growth to occur until, at earliest, 2011 or 2012.

According to Tuesday’s Oregon Employment Department estimates, the education and health services industry is projected to grow the most in the three counties: by more than 2,900 positions, or a 29 percent increase, to nearly 13,000 total jobs. Both the professional and business services industry, and the food and beverage industry should grow by about 18 percent.

Construction will likely continue to lag behind other industries, growing at only 1 percent. Eagan said that construction statewide was at an unsustainable level before the recession, adding that it’s unclear whether the state will reach those levels again.

The projections — used to track job openings, the size of industries and the fastest-growing industries — are released every two years. This most recent projection uses 2008 employment levels as a starting point.

State economists make projections based on factors such as input from the industries and staffing patterns they observe, Eagan said. The projections track jobs in nearly a dozen general industries: everything from manufacturing to leisure and hospitality to government services.

These forecasts can vary, depending on the stability of the economy, Eagan said. When economists made projections based on 2006 staffing levels, they estimated Central Oregon would have about 100,000 jobs in 2016, she said. After the 2008 job losses, the area is now expected to staff about 92,000 positions by 2018.

Besides the creation of new jobs, the state also expects 21,112 positions to open up because people will either retire or move to a different line of work.

Only one industry, information, is expected to decline by 2018. Most others, such as manufacturing, government, leisure and hospitality, and trade, transportation and utilities are expected to grow by between 9 and 14 percent.

During 2008, 4,113 people who worked in construction filed for unemployment insurance, more than any other industry. More than 3,200 people from the manufacturing industry and 1,800 people from retail trade filed for benefits.

U.S. Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., co-sponsored legislation Tuesday to reauthorize the Economic Development Administration, an agency that aims to promote economic development in communities whose unemployment rate for the past two years is at least 1 percent higher than the national average or whose per capita income is 80 percent or less than that of the national average, according to a news release from Merkley’s office. The Economic Development Administration has created an estimated 392,000 jobs nationwide since its last authorization, according to the release, and has funded 11 projects in Oregon, totaling $10.58 million, since 2007.


No. Growth, my friend, is STILL HERE. Despite the fact that... there... is... no... growth.

No, what we'll do is simply slide the Still Ridiculously Optimistic Growth Projections down just a bit on the Y-axis. So.... instead of 100K, we're down to 92K. But for the love of Christ, MAKE SURE WE STILL HAVE GROWTH!

This is The Bend Way. Always Exceptional.

This is why The Most Pessimistic Plans are for PLUS 20%. That's The Worst that could happen. The upside is UNBOUNDED really.

Hence, The 1% Business Plan. Bend is The Home of Unbounded Business Failures, because a smaller & smaller number of entrepreneurs are actually even remotely close to the True Crux of Bend Growth... which is honing in on MINUS 20%.

This brings me to another idea:

Too Big To.... EXIST.

We've heard a lot now about the astronomical costs of saving firms that are "Too Big Too Fail". These costs will ultimately bankrupt this country, but that's another blog...

But I don't hear much about what seems to be the Inevitable Conclusion to this idea: Too Big To Exist.

How do we "cure" Too Big To Fail? Well, it seems the only Sure Way is to not let it happen in the first place.

But, doesn't that mean some sort of Quasi-Socialism? Some sort of "invisible" government hand moderating, or flat out quashing success, and possibly nurturing failure, if for no other reason than to serve as a dampener to a firm that may be endangering our "National Stability" because of it's size & importance?

Have we actually reached the Limits of Capitalism?

I find this to be a fairly facinating question. It is strating to seem like that "Cowboy Capitalism" (fairly unregulated) seems to breed "concentration" of wealth, assets, and opportunity.

This flies in the face of the "democratization" of opportunity that it seemed the internet would make all but inevitable, only a few years back. I was utterly convinced of this in 2000.

I thought The Big would get smaller. Much smaller. Competition would come out of the woodwork. Regulation would be like trying to herd a swarm of bees. The elephants would fall.


Bank deposit concentration has increased enormously over the past 2 decades.

Increased Concentration in Banking: Megabanks and Their Implications for Deposit Insurance

During the past two decades, the U.S. banking industry has experienced an unprecedented wave of consolidation, marked by a substantial decline in the number of insured depository institutions and the emergence of banking behemoths with assets totaling in the hundreds of billions of dollars. This unparalleled concentration of assets and deposits among a handful of megabanks has important implications for deposit insurance. Most importantly, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) now faces a situation in which the failure of even a single megabank could overwhelm the resources immediately available to the deposit insurance system and expose both the banking industry and the government (i.e., taxpayers) to huge potential liabilities. This article highlights the current structure of the banking industry, examines the threat that this structure poses to the deposit insurance funds, and suggests possible approaches for dealing with megabanks and the increasing concentration of insured deposits.

And banking is just one industry in which this has happened.

Virtually the entire chain of financial services has been joined into one huge inter-linked system in which all the participants either sink or swim.

Is this Too Big To Exist? Or is it that the inexorable binding linkages of successful firms are flawed, and the entire system is bound to implode & destroy itself?

I don't know honestly. It does seem inevitable that Like Everything Else, the FDIC will ultimately fail & have to be bailed out to save its industry. They will try to extort premiums from members, which will weaken their insureds balance sheets, which will increase failures, resulting in a vicous Drag-Me-To-Hell scenario of failure & bailout.

I just know there is something Deliciously Ironic in the idea that all the Too Big To Fail firms will at some point be subjected to a Too Big To Exist philosophy that will shape up over the next coming years in our beloved government.

This will alter the very idea of Capitalism in this Country. Many firms are too big to exist. Perhaps it's true of everything.

I wanted to mention something briefly that just irks me....

What's Been Destroyed In Bend By The Bubble

A lot has changed since the inception of this blog in this town. Increasing prices seems to do funny things to people.

Things that are "OK" at one price point, are torn down at another. Prosperity has a price. Especially if you are in the way of a Tear Down.

Increasing prices for homes in Bend accomplished much of what Bend's Monied Gentry truly wanted to happen in the first place: Apartments, low-income housing, and vast swaths of trailer parks were either converted to high-priced condos, or bulldozed altogether.

A similar fate awaited much of Bend's undeveloped land on the fringe of the City.

We've popularized (I like to think) the term STD, or Siberian Tract Development.

This is typically an amalgam of dense-development, low-to-no quality slave-labor huts that are best suited to cooking meth, growing Mary Jane, and finally blowing up in a fireball of decapitated Maxicans, tiara's, satin proms dresses, and fucking 75 kids and infants.

And worse still, the 1977 Mercury Grand Marquis Station Wagon in the garage cannot house the survivors.

Sure, this sounds like standard issue shit for Madras (and La Pine) for the last 50 years, but the immense fields of STD shit shacks populating the East side (mostly) have made this a common occurence in our own beloved Bend.

This is a real monkey in the wrench for people like Costa who are summarily thrashing the Exceptionalism Doctrine for all it's worth.

But worse, is that after all the Meth-Cooking-Mexicans have burned these shitholes to the ground in what is really a public service... we are stuck with these ass-end of the World shithole homes that I wouldn't let a maggot live in... on postage stamp lots.

Ummmm... didn't we all COME HERE for The Scenery?

Didn't we all come here to Breathe The Air In The Wide Open Spaces?

Didn't we come here so that when we look out our window, we DO NOT SEE INTO OUR NEXT DOOR NEIGHBORS KITCHEN, GAT DAMN IT!


This is just another reason this fucking Bubble PISSES ME OFF.

This place has been CUT UP into ANT-SIZED plots of dirt, NEVER TO BE UNDONE, in an attempt to profit as much as is humanly possible from what is now an asset that only a FUCKING PSYCHOPATH would want -- a house. But not just a house, a house that is practically INSIDE the fucking house next door.

Fuck you fucking builders, and the Bend City Councilor SELL OUT MOTHERFUCKERS for doing this. There is no UNDO button for this. These shitholes will act as a blight FOR DECADES on this town.

You greedy fucks have cut up "paradise" (that's 1 STD above the mean), and made it a checkerboard of shit. The entire East side of Bend is going to morph into a decrepit pile of crap. Also happening to SW Bend, and (HORROR OF HORRORS), some sections of West Bend (yes, I put Tetherow in that bucket).

The pathetic afterbirth of Measure 37, and it's bastard bitch, Measure 49, can only serve to make this worse in EVERY WAY.

Of course, the Bully has given us a steady stream of GREEDY-ASS-CUNT-MOTHERFUCKERS who want to, INCREDIBLY, build trailers, air-drop rusted out Chevy Citations, and God Knows What The Fuck Else onto their pristine, undivided, and dare I say, picturesque farm land, and replace it with something NO ONE FUCKING WANTS ANYMORE.

Of course, the Bully portrays these people as VICTIMS:

Awaiting decisions in a land use limbo
One of the goals of Measure 49 was to streamline development claims made under Measure 37. With a key deadline looming, though, the law's meaning is still debated, and families like the Bolkens are increasingly frustrated.

But they could not sell the old house to their 41-year-old son because a zoning change on their land in 1979 prevented them from dividing the property. “By selling the one lot to our son, that would clear all our debts,” Olaf Bolken said. Instead, Torfinn Bolken chips in to help pay the mortgage, and Olaf said he has to count the payments as rental income.

Oh man. What a fuckin' load.

Poor fucking OLAF can't anally fuck the US Tax Code for all it's worth, so the Poor Fucker has to hold onto his PRISTINE FARM LAND BOUGHT FOR NEXT TO NOTHING, instead of subdivide it like a Narcissistic Greedy Fucking Douche, thereby increasing his own net worth by 50 FUCKING CENTS while wrecking everything around him.

Yeah, I feel REAL BAD for Olaf.

If Costa had his way, EVERYONE WOULD BE AN OLAF, and Cent OR would be a tax-evasion PARADISE.

But... yeah, that's right. This fucking place would be, instead of an outdoor paradise, a checkboard shithole of trailers, medieval-slingshotted motherfucking rusted out GMC Gremlins, hurled into low-Earth orbit and abandoned whereever OLAF-FUELED FUCKSTICKS have cut up their pastures for Meck-mobbed insanity. FUCKERS.

Costa, do you REALLY want to allow any dumbass hick douche to cut up their land, and house half of fucking GUATAMALA on thier dirt farm?


Our fucking free public lands (Drake Park, the River, Taco Salsa, aka "Meth-N-More", and our forests) are already overrrun with the 3 worst demographic groups on this planet: Motherfucking lazy-ass meth-cooking Mexicans, Murderous Bums, and 800 lb White Trash Single Mothers. To date, we've contained this cancerous scourge to where it should be:

Deschutes River Woods.

But these little nipper fucks are devious, and all they need is 50 sq ft, and fucking 2,000,000 mexicans will invade & be living right next to Legitimate White People.

Think about it Costa, you brain-dead motherfucker.

Again, Narcissim, Greed, Obsession With Self. That's ALL this is. Fuck you, as long as I get mine. Not a brain cell anywhere concerned with the after-effects. Who cares what the costs are. Just GIMME. Now!


But we're all going to destroy this place we love, one subdiv at a time. And that shit cannot be undone, driven out, or fucking exterminated. We're going to have to live with that for a long damn time.

I guess I couldn't possibly go out without at least mentioning the Mother Of All Boondoggles, JUNIPER RIDGE.

In a piece that can only be filed under "I Guess You Never Know", The Incredible Hulce has allowed a piece titled "General Custer & Juniper Ridge" to somehow slip by her martini-addled editorial radar.

While it is far past time for the City of Bend to acknowledge that Juniper Ridge (JR) has failed to meet even minimal objectives in seven years, they are more likely to pursue "business as usual" because only taxpayer money is at stake. The purpose of this editorial is to explain in clear and simple business terms why everything associated with JR that could possibly go awry did go wrong, and why Juniper Ridge is now a tainted brand just like Ford's Edsel of decades ago.

Holy Fucking Crap!

Yes, this is in the current Cascade Business Buttfucker. Incredible.

Author Scott Siewert goes into a play-by-play of the utter failure that is Juniper Ridge.

And I can only assume that "Scott Siewert" is a pseudonym for someone I can't quite put my finger on right now....

Siewert goes on to just tear JR a new corn chute, and predicts it's complete demise only after, of course, swallowing as much money as Drew Bledsoe swallows donkey cum. That's a lot of fucking money.

Read the piece. Yes, throw The Incredible Hulce a fucking bone, and read her useless rag. This one article is actually a no-holds-barred look at the only place ON EARTH where a City deluded by it's own munificience manages to turn a$1 piece of shit volcano rock strewn Superfund shithole tract of 1,500 acres, into a sure-thing CITY of BEND BANKRUPTCY.

Believe it. Only in Bend. Nowhere else on EARTH are the elected officials STUPID ENOUGH to somehow turn an enormous FREE FINANCIAL ASSET (at bubbles peak, at least) into a complete City-wide bankruptcy in less time, than Bend Oregon.

Thank you, you selfish dumbfuck City Councilors.

What's the difference between a SELFISH fucker and a STUPID fucker?

Nothing. That little dicotomy is what will bring down this country.

Now, just a little summary of where we are & where we might go in the financial markets.

Well first, on the macro-scale, my super-duper, never-fail prediction for the stock market is.... {drumroll!}


I mean, we're not extremely over or under valued from a L/T perspective.

DJIA, 80 year chart.

We're still in the dead middle of that trend line. Fair Value just floated above 10K for the first time ever 2-3 weeks ago.

If this were a "normal" economy, maybe there'd be reason to be at least hopeful.

But I have a sneaking suspicion that the damage from the Bubble imploding, and possibly the even worse side-effects of trying to AVOID ANY PAIN AT ALL COSTS, NO MATTER HOW HIGH under the Obama-Jeebus, will actualy make the current "fair value" a pipe dream in a scant few years.

I actually think we'll be re-visiting the lower band of that trend line before all is said & done.

That's why I am out of stocks for the foreseeable future. No IRA money, no taxable money. Nut'n.

Stocks aren't quite in a bubble, but they are much like RE: Stuck ina temporary holding pattern on a long, slow bleedout to horribly low levels.

So why the "meh"?

Well, at some point, in the far distant future, you actually will be able to make money in US stocks again. Not today, mind you. Not tomorrow. But someday. And when we break through to the horrible depths only touched briefly on a statistical basis way back in 1982, it will be one hell of a ride up. To...ohhhh.... I'd say a triple off the low, over the course of 10 years.

So 12K on the DJIA in 2025.

So don't buy stocks now. Or RE.

But there's an even Bigger Bubble out there.

US Government debt. This is the Ponzi scheme that is making MADOFF look like a piker.

It's really remarkable in it's simplicity. And it's evil.

See, you & me, are going to be sheered by the US Gov't over the coming decades. Our taxes are going to go apeshit. That's because today, our government is borrowing trillions to effect the largest Corporate Welfare Program the World has ever seen, or will ever see in the current living generations lifetime.

They are borrowing the money from our kids, loaning it to corporations, and requiring them to buy T-bonds, which pay interest via taxes.

It is incredible. The amount being transferred is staggering. It's trillions.

This is why in the midst of the most dire, job-crushing recession in 100 years, stocks are headed up. They are making billions on this Ponzi scheme.

But much like the FRAUD-U-NET RE Bubble, at some point even this Government-sponsored fraud must collapse on itself.

And there are 2 outcomes: We pay or we start shooting.

There is a hell of a good chance that we will go to war (and LOSE) over this currently collapsing RE Bubble. Yes. People will die because of this.

From the smallest scale (Tami Sawyer), to the largest (China has nukes), people want to get their money. And when you steal a few hundred grand, you just get a little alone time in the slammer.

But when TRILLIONS are on the line, the slants get their guns. And nukes.

You watch.

The US bond market will be the trigger for our next war. Watch for it to implode, that's the signal that you need to "Get Your Ass To Mars".

And with its collapse will come the dominant theme for the next generation: STAGFLATION.

It's a ways off now, because we are in the throes of deflation. But I have the feeling that Obama-Jeebus-Bernanke will be unable to turn off the spigot in time. They've already admitted as much. They are projecting low rates ad infinitum.

So what do you do when deflation rules the roost, stocks, bonds and RE are all a bust for the forseeable future, what to do?

Gold seems one possible play.

I read that (especially with gold at $1,150/oz), and I say "TOP!".

Which is why I'm still not crazy about gold. What I like more is "stuff".

Copper, non-ferrous mineral, timber, coal, water. Stuff. Basic stuff. I like the materials stocks. But they've had a hell of a run already, and they may well get knocked when the market as a whole is re-valued lower.

But if there is going to be some sort of Next Bubble, seems like they would be a good pick.

Basic Materials, Defense, and choice Pharma.

We're going to war, and old fuckers are going to live long enough to watch their spawn die.

Besides that, it's slim pickins'. I guess buy toys from the foreclosed on. Cars, trucks, stuff. People are going to leave Bend in droves for years, and they will want to sell their shit. WTF... buy it. There's nothing else to do with your money.

So, that's the MACRO.

The Regional?

California is going down.

Yes, the topic that caused almost as much loathing as all my Narcissism Yammering, was the idea that Cali in it's entirety, is becoming a second-rate piece of shit.

Seems logical, the state is following the path of it's citizens.

But think about it: Cali is a VC fueled economy, full of horribly over-priced trailers about to be overrun by the Mexican hordes.

Cali is only considered to BE a paradise, because it has BEEN a paradise.

Is Haiti a paradise? Fuck no. Jamaica? No.

Paradise is what you make it. Something we've all learned from hbm.

WHich I guess brings me to a little aside about weather, scenery and all the shit that makes a place "home".

I always said that bland places like Iowa would do the best in this current economy, because they never participated in the upside, they won't get killed in the downturn.

hbm always said he'd rather be dead in Bend than alive in Iowa.

But really, when I think back on my life, and the myriad of places I've lived, the weather, the scenery, and all the other externality bullshit that is so overly touted as an ABSOLUTE reason for moving to a place like Bend, somehow pales in comprison to the reasons that I truly enjoyed some of the places I've lived.

It was always friends or family that made a place. Not weather.

I love the place I went to college because of all the good times & friends I had there.

You could throw me in the middle of a cornfield to camp with my siblings, and I'd probably have a better time than I would camping alone in Yosemite.

Not only does scenery NOT pay the bills, it is cold & unfeeling. It's very nice to be in a new surrounding for a bit, and I've had some of the greatest times of my life out in the bush.

But being around people you enjoy is 100X more important in the long run.

Assholes can make paradise a total shithole, as has been demonstrated many times over by the equity locust invasion this place has suffered. Which is why I sometimes question the wisdom of moving to a place because of the outdoor activities.

I know more than one person (couple) that drank the Visit Bend Kool-Aid, moved here, bought at the top, and are now drowning in debt and DESPISE THIS PLACE. And they went out every weekend & did something real fun.

But they have had it. They want out.

'Course they can't get out. Bank won't short sale till they default, and once they default they can't get a job cuz they got fired when Epic/Cessna/Unicom/Equity Group/whoever went broke and stole their last paycheck & 401K.

But that's trivialities.

I think a lot of people go through life think all the external pieces of their environment are what count most; no, it's people. And on that mark, Bend is below average. And it will be until there are no H2 Hummer driving Cali-cunts who cut me off on Wall. Fucking cunts.

Hmm. Anyway, back to the business at hand. I suppose it only really matters that Cali is taking a financial bath in that Where Cali goes, so goes Oregon. 18-24 months later.

And if you want to see where we are going in the future, read this piece from Calculated Risk, "Unemployment Rate Increases in 29 States in October".

Even more interesting is this chart with the highst, lowest & most recent unemployment rates for all 50 states.

Click to enlarge...

You can see that California is suffering the highest unemployment EVER. It is maxed out.

Oregon is not far behind, of course, at #7.

This bodes ill for us. As recently as a year ago, COVA, Visit Bend, and all those other marketing schills were selling California Billionaires as Cent OR's economic saviors. Fucking ridiculous.

The facts: Bend unemployment will probably hit 20% one of these years. I guess that's pretty bad. But worse, it will NEVER go down. It will probably stay persistantly high. Why? People won't leave!

They've drank the Kool-Aid and actually think things are going to turn around here. They will not. Things are going to get far worse.

"Hey, but what about that Olive Garden? They must know something we don't!"

What about Gottschalks? What about Cessna? Oregon Woodwork?

This place is an investment SHITHOLE. Anything doing Bend-based business is a MIRAGE. When I came here, a business broker told me 80% of the businesses in Bend were TECHNICALLY INSOLVENT, being kept alive solely by spousal welfare.

There are very precious few companies actually making any money in Bend.

You want to know the Best Investment for anyone living in Bend? Buy a tankful of gas AND LEAVE.

People think that this blog & it's commenters are Broken Clock Bears, and are full of shit. OK. Fine. Take a sec to read a few pieces from someone who really knows how to throw down.

Wall Street's 2012 meltdown sweepstakes
Don't say we didn't warn you this time -- a new crash is dead ahead

By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch

LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- It's coming in 2012: Another, bigger meltdown of Wall Street's "too-greedy-to-fail" banks. No, this is not another fanatical warning about that Dec. 21, 2012 end-of-days prediction based on the Mayan calendar, though you may well ask "Who will survive?"

Here is what's happening: History is repeating itself. Wall Street's soul-sickness is setting up a new meltdown. Dead ahead. Be prepared.

My track record speaks for itself. Back on March 20, 2000, my column headline read: "Next crash? Sorry, you'll never hear it coming." Bull's eye: The dot-com bubble popped at 11,722. The economy collapsed. A 30-month recession. Markets lost $8 trillion. Today the market is still below that 2000 peak. Factor in inflation and Wall Street's "too-greedy-too-fail" banks have lost about 30% of your retirement nest eggs in this decade. Incompetent? Clueless? No, Wall Street is a bunch of crooks without consciences.

Since 2000, my columns have covered many warnings of major debt accumulation, market meltdowns, and the psychological failings of Wall Street's greedy, myopic brains. Last June we summarized 20 predictions made between 2000 and 2007 warning of a subprime meltdown coming. Oddly, no one seemed to be listening to all the warnings from leading minds like Buffett, Grantham, Gross, Faber, Shilling, Roubini, Fed governors, and many more. Was that a repeat of 2000 with no one listening?

Suddenly it hit me: It's just the opposite: Everyone is listening and everybody knew a crash was coming -- but we were in a trance, including Washington's bosses. Bernanke, Bush, Paulson, Greenspan all heard it. So did Wall Street, and Main Street.

Unfortunately America's collective brain was addicted to the adrenaline rush of gambling in a risky bull. The euphoria is intoxicating. We were caught up in a game of musical chairs, squeezing out every last dollar of return, blind to the catastrophe ahead until caught by surprise. Unfortunately, Wall Street lacked a moral compass and stole trillions from American taxpayers. Today, the only lesson Wall Street has learned is "greed is good." Now the beginning of the end has become a moral tragedy that is setting the stage for an implosion of Wall Street, capitalism and our economy circa 2012.

Everyone's still listening, still in a trance

Yes, another meltdown is coming; it's inevitable. This time, I've decided to do more periodic updates -- a watch list of alerts, warnings and predictions. Just like the updates done for over a decade, except this time we're more aware that few in power will listen, not Wall Street, not Washington, not Corporate America. But you must.

Recently a bright idea came to me: a new way to present these predictions. My wife was working all day at a hospital in Templeton, Calif., so I parked myself in the Café Vio in nearby Paso Robles, with two huge briefcases of research files on bubbles, debt, derivatives, behavioral economics and lots more. While trying to make sense of the materials, the headlines themselves started telling a fascinating story. Here's an edited montage of their staccato warnings. Read fast and "feel" the message:

Financial Times: "Second Great Depression [is] still possible."

The economy's "spiral is captured in a Titanic metaphor ... unsinkable."

BusinessWeek: "Next bubble could come sooner than you think."

From Reinhart and Rogoff: "This time is different." But it never is.

Bloomberg: "Citi's 'near death' hoard signals lower profits."

Citi hoarding $244 billion in cash "as if another crisis were on way."

Wall Street Journal: "Three decades of subsidized risk."

Gasparino's "The Sellout:" Greed, mismanagement killed financial system.

SeekingAlpha: "Crisis lessons forgotten in new speculation."

We prop up trash stocks Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG; learned nothing.

USA Today: "Wall Street bailouts ... business as usual"

Warning: "Too big to fail" protections guarantee another crash down the road. "Why capitalism fails ... why it will happen again."

Economist says American capitalism "contains seeds of own destruction."

MarketWatch: "Einhorn bets on major currency 'death spiral.'"

Hedger bet against Lehman. Now against dollar. Says "break up too-big-to-fail" banks.

Forbes: "Be prepared for worst ... repeating Great Depression."

Expect "GD2" says Congressman Ron Paul, author, "The Revolution," "End the Fed."

New Republic: "Next financial crisis coming; we made it worse."

Former IMF economist: "Bernanke soft landing, sowing seeds of next crisis."

Wall Street Journal: "The economy is still at the brink."

Moral hazard: No CEOs of failed banks indicted ... even paid millions.

BusinessWeek: "What happens if the dollar crashes?"

Trade wars break out, banks collapse. Cheap dollars are killing us.

Pimco Investment Outlook: "On the course to a new normal."

Gross's "new normal:" spending, stocks down, savings up, banks riskier.

Economix, New York Times: "Finance gone wild."

Simon Johnson: Wall Street's "pathological" power over Washington.

Vanity Fair: "Wall Street lays another egg."

Ferguson: "Math models ignored history, human nature," failed, repeating.

Clusterstock: "10 bubbles in the making."

Fed's toxic debt, gold, emerging markets, ETFs, China, securitization, more!

Rolling Stone: "The great American bubble machine."

Taibbi: Goldman's a giant vampire stealing trillions with "gangster economics."

Temasek Hedge: Roubini predicts bubble, hates equities.

Economist sees "bigger bubble than before" as Fed wastes taxpayer trillions.

CNN/HuffPost: "Wall Street made mess, big bucks on clean-up."

Michael Lewis says "they're too powerful ... we're in for day of reckoning."

Vanity Fair: "Wall Street's toxic message: capitalism failed."

Stiglitz: Wall Street writes self-serving rules, puts global economy at risk.

MarketWatch: "Wasting our chance to fix the banking system."

America's got a "banking system that's just a ticking time bomb."

Mother Jones: "Could cap'n'trade cause new meltdown?"

Yes, and Goldman sees huge profits if this $1 trillion market is created.

Fortune: "We owe what? The next crisis, America's debt."

Yes, "chronic deficits are putting America on the path to fiscal collapse."

Time: "America and its deficits: Are we broke yet?"

Justin Fox, author, "Myth of the Rational Market:" "We'll soon find out." "Main Street jobs? First kill Wall Street jobs."

"Looting of America" author: Wall Street got rich destroying Main Street.

The Nation: "Creative destruction on Wall Street."

Greiner: They treats problem as "psychological," solved by "happy talk."

Kiplinger: New black swan triggers next financial crisis.

Money manager Bob Rodriquez: "Next bubble already growing."

The Atlantic: "Why Wall Street always blows it."

Blodget learned a lesson, but Street chief executives still clueless, no lessons learned.

Questions for today: Do you believe a new crash is coming in 2012, give or take a year? Will it trigger the "Second Great Depression?" And how big a factor is Wall Street's greed and lack of morals?

Well, that one is good. This one is Great!

20 reasons new megabubble pops in 2011
Greed blinded us to subprime meltdown, it'll blind us next time too

ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- You think I'm drinking that famous Beltway Kool-Aid, maybe because I'm predicting another meltdown coming in 2011? Well, you're being served from the same punch bowl, my friends.

Wall Street, Washington and the Fed are all praying the credit crisis is under control. Unfortunately, all their happy-talking is just a lot of hype, to hide their next bubble.

World markets are headed into another meltdown by the end of the first term of the next president ... and you won't even hear it coming under all the happy-talk.

Cycles happen. Bubbles blow, pop, meltdowns happen. Significantly, they're getting bigger and more frequent. Think 1987, 2000, 2007 -- the next in 2011. All the happy-talk from Washington and Wall Street gurus can't start the bull before it's time. Nor will a lot of non-happy-talker warnings make a bubble burst early.

For example, two years ago I analyzed the 2000-2002 bear phase of "The Cycle." We reported on 16 reasons why all the happy-talk failed to restart the bull market during that 30-month recession, while investors slowly lost $8 trillion.

Now you'll see how all the warnings of a housing bubble and a coming meltdown also had no effect on the 2004-2007 bull phase of "The Cycle."

Why? Because bull/bear, bubble/bust, expansion/recession cycles have a natural pattern that ebbs and flows on their own time, making fools of all gurus predictions. And all the happy-talk and not-so-happy-talk in the world has no effect: Happy-talk won't restart a bull. Nor can not-so-happy-talk warnings puncture a bubble. Cycles have lives of their own, they mature and die unpredictable, age and pop when they feel like it.

Another will happen, soon. A busted bubble and a new meltdown coming by the end of the next presidential term. Why then? Because the last few occurred with increasing frequency, separated by thirteen years then seven, and the next will come within four years. These trends are obvious from studying the works of masters like former Commerce Department chief economist Ed Dewey's classics, including his Cycles, the Mysterious Forces that Trigger Events.

Here's my list of warnings from 20 not-so-happy-talkers. Notice how they were as unable to pop the 2004-2007 bubble before its time, as the happy-talkers were unable to restart a bull during the 2000-2002 recession:

  1. 2000: Fed governor warns Greenspan. Former Federal Reserve governor Ed Gramlich served 1997-2005. He was warning Alan Greenspan as early as 2000 about the coming subprime crisis. See his book "Subprime Mortgages: America's Latest Boom & Bust."

  2. 2004: Nixon's secretary of commerce. In "Running on Empty," Peter Peterson says: "This administration and the Republican Congress have presided over the biggest, most reckless deterioration of America's finances in history" creating a "bankrupt nation."

  3. June 2005: The Economist. Cover story two years before collapse: "The worldwide rise in house prices is the biggest bubble in history. ... Rising property prices helped to prop up the world economy after the stock market bubble burst in 2000." Values increased 75% worldwide in five short years. "Never before have real house prices risen so fast, for so long, in so many countries ... This is the biggest bubble in history."

  4. January 2006: Fortune. Interview with Richard Rainwater. "This is the first scenario I've seen where I question the survivability of mankind." He's 112th on the Forbes 400, worth $2.3 billion: "Most people invest and then sit around worrying what the next blowup will be. I do the opposite. I wait for the blowup, then invest." He waited with a half-billion-dollar war chest.

  5. February 2006: Faber's Market Newsletter. "Correction Time is Here!" was Faber's headline: "If we combine the overbought condition of the stock market, investors' sentiment high optimism, equity mutual funds' low cash positions, and also heavy foreign buying, we have all the ingredients for a stock market correction in the US getting underway very shortly."

  6. March 2006: Forbes. Economist Gary Shilling wrote: "The current housing weakness will develop into a full-scale rout ... It's clearly a bubble and is nationwide ... The house-price collapse will induce a painful recession that will send U.S. stocks into a tailspin ... China will suffer a hard landing ... and weakness in the U.S. and China will spread worldwide."

  7. March 2006: "Sell Now." Former Goldman Sachs investment banker John Talbott's book: "Sell Now! The End of the Housing Bubble." His statistics covered America's top 130 metropolitan areas. The top 40 were facing an average 47.2% decline.

  8. March 2006: Pimco Investment Outlook. In the quarterly newsletter, "The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight," Pimco's boss Bill Gross took a big swipe at a presidential economic report: "It's not so much that the report was a compilation of untruths or even half-truths. It's just that it failed to tell the truth," and hid the fact that Washington's "borrowed from the future to pay for today's party."

  9. March 2006: Buffett in Fortune. Remember Warren Buffett's famous farmer story: "Our country has been behaving like an extraordinarily rich family that possesses an immense farm. In order to consume 4% more than they produce -- that's the trade deficit -- we have, day by day, been both selling pieces of the farm and increasing the mortgage on what we still own."

  10. May 2006: Harper's magazine. Michael Hudson wrote an article, "Guide to the Coming Real Estate Collapse," analyzing 20 trends: "Taken together, these factors will further shrink the 'real' economy, drive down those already declining real wages, and push our debt-ridden economy into Japan-style stagflation or worse."

  11. August 2006: Wall Street Journal. Countrywide's CEO Angelo Mozilo: "I've never seen a 'soft-landing' in 53 years, so we have a ways to go before this levels out. I have to prepare the company for the worst that can happen." He did little. A year later, he was in full denial mode.

  12. November 2006: Fortune. Cover story asks: "Can the Economy Survive the Housing Bust?" They said "the correlation between current builder confidence and future stock market returns over the past 10 years is downright unnerving." The NAHB confidence index is a leading indicator because the stock market inevitably follows in lockstep a year later. The index had "plummeted 54%."

  13. November 2006: The Economist. In a cover story: "The Dark Side of Debt," Timothy Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said in a Hong Kong speech: "The same factors that have reduced the probability of future systemic events, however, may amplify the damage caused by, and complicate the management of, very severe financial shocks. The changes that have reduced the vulnerability of the system to smaller shocks may increase the severity of the larger ones." Geithner later negotiated the Bear Sterns collapse.

  14. January 2007: Los Angeles Times. Schwab "averaged 242,300 trades a day the first nine months of 2006. That was up 29% from the same period a year earlier, and a click above its 242,000 peak in 2000"and the last collapse.

  15. April 2007. GMO Quarterly Newsletter. GMO manages $145 billion. CEO Jeremy Grantham wrote: "The First Truly Global Bubble: From Indian antiquities to modern Chinese art; from land in Panama to Mayfair; from forestry, infrastructure, and the junkiest bonds to mundane blue chips; it's bubble time. ... Everyone, everywhere is reinforcing one another. ... The bursting of the bubble will be across all countries and all assets ... no similar global event has occurred before."

  16. June 2007: Shilling's Insight Newsletter. "Just as the U.S. housing bubble is bursting, speculation elsewhere will come to a violent end if history is any guide. ... Richard Bookstaber, who designed various derivative-laden strategies over the years, now fears that financial derivatives and hedge funds, focal points of today's huge leverage, will trigger a financial meltdown."

  17. June 2007: Pop! Then it happened! And Dan Gross had a well-timed book: "Pop! Why Bubbles are Great for the Economy." He says bubbles work miracles, so just let them pop, Pop, POP!

  18. July 2007: Fortune. As the contagion spread, Treasury Secretary and former Goldman Sachs CEO Henry Paulson tells Fortune "this is far and away the strongest global economy I've seen in my business lifetime." He's repeated the same remark often since. Earlier, he and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the subprime crisis was "contained." Clueless, Bernanke assembled hedge fund managers, asking them to explain the global derivatives market.

  19. August 2007. Wall Street Journal. Former SEC Chairman Arthur Levitt wrote on the Journal's Op-Ed page: "In terms of market meltdowns and the degree of pain inflicted on the financial system, the subprime mortgage crisis has the potential to rival just about anything in recent financial history, from the savings and loan crisis of the late 1980s to the post-Enron turndown in the beginning of this decade."

  20. August 2007: 60 Minutes. While Paulson and Bernanke were claiming the subprime crisis was "contained," the chief architect of the subprime-housing meltdown, Alan Greenspan, was on tour, making millions, hustling his new book, "The Age of Turbulence." On 60 Minutes he made a totally incredulous denial that he "really didn't get it until very late." He "didn't get it?" Yes, and to this day Greenspan rigidly maintains his blind faith in the free-market myth. His latest argument: Bubbles are a function of innovation, like the dot-coms and subprime derivatives. Regulators should trust the free markets, never micromanage innovation.

But what blinded Greenspan? His ideology? A brain quirk? Genetics? The president's reelection? It doesn't matter why: Whatever it was, it's bad news for America. Why? Because if the leader of America's monetary system for 18 years "doesn't get" that he was also the chief architect of the biggest economic blunder in American history since the 1929 Crash, can we ever trust any future leaders?

Scary, isn't it! How can we have faith in the next guy? Are our leaders the problem? Or is the system broken? Is capitalism itself at risk when the best and brightest are "blinded," unable to see disasters until it's too late?

But that is our "system," and in this system our leaders inevitably morph into bulls, ideologically blinded by their power. And like real bulls, all they see is red. So eventually ... they must run onto a sword, and self-destruct!

Really read some of this stuff. It's worse than we're just going to be a Little Poorer.

We're going to be a lot poorer. But worse, we've lost something.

50 years ago, people actually had some values that weren't financially based abominations. Today, no one cares about that. All they care about is money. If you have it, You're Good. If you don't, You Are Dogshit. That's it. That's AmeriKKKa.

And I'll save the best Farrell for last...

Death of 'Soul of Capitalism': Bogle, Faber, Moore
20 reasons America has lost its soul and collapse is inevitable

ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Jack Bogle published "The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism" four years ago. The battle's over. The sequel should be titled: "Capitalism Died a Lost Soul." Worse, we've lost "America's Soul." And, worldwide, the consequences will be catastrophic.

That's why a man like Hong Kong contrarian economist Marc Faber warns in his Doom, Boom & Gloom Report: "The future will be a total disaster, with a collapse of our capitalistic system as we know it today."

No, not just another meltdown, another bear-market recession like the one recently triggered by Wall Street's too-greedy-to-fail banks. Faber is warning that the entire system of capitalism will collapse. Get it? The engine driving the great "American Economic Empire" for 233 years will collapse, a total disaster, a destiny we created.

OK, deny it. But I'll bet you have a nagging feeling that maybe he's right, that the end may be near. I have for a long time: I wrote a column back in 1997: "Battling for the Soul of Wall Street." My interest in "The Soul" -- what Jung called the "collective unconscious" -- dates back to my Ph.D. dissertation, "Modern Man in Search of His Soul," a title borrowed from Jung's 1933 book, "Modern Man in Search of a Soul." This battle has been on my mind since my days at Morgan Stanley 30 years ago, witnessing the decline.

Has capitalism lost its soul? Guys like Bogle and Faber sense it. Read more about the soul in physicist Gary Zukav's "The Seat of the Soul," Thomas Moore's "Care of the Soul" and sacred texts.

But for Wall Street and American capitalism, use your gut. You know something's very wrong: A year ago, too-greedy-to-fail banks were insolvent, in a near-death experience. Now, magically, they're back to business as usual, arrogant, pocketing outrageous bonuses while Main Street sacrifices, and unemployment and foreclosures continue rising as tight credit, inflation and skyrocketing federal debt are killing taxpayers.

Yes, Wall Street has lost its moral compass. It created the mess, but now, like vultures, Wall Streeters are capitalizing on the carcass. They have lost all sense of fiduciary duty, ethical responsibility and public obligation.

Here are the Top 20 reasons American capitalism has lost its soul:

1. Collapse is now inevitable

Capitalism has been the engine driving America and the global economies for over two centuries. Faber predicts its collapse will trigger global "wars, massive government-debt defaults, and the impoverishment of large segments of Western society." Faber knows that capitalism is not working, capitalism has peaked, and the collapse of capitalism is "inevitable."

When? He hesitates: "But what I don't know is whether this final collapse, which is inevitable, will occur tomorrow, or in five or 10 years, and whether it will occur with the Dow at 100,000 and gold at $50,000 per ounce or even confiscated, or with the Dow at 3,000 and gold at $1,000." But the end is inevitable, a historical imperative.

2. Nobody's planning for a 'Black Swan'

While the timing may be uncertain, the trigger is certain. Societies collapse because they fail to plan ahead, cannot act fast enough when a catastrophic crisis hits. Think "Black Swan" and read evolutionary biologist Jared Diamond's "Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed."

A crisis hits. We act surprised. Shouldn't. But it's too late: "Civilizations share a sharp curve of decline. Indeed, a society's demise may begin only a decade or two after it reaches its peak population, wealth and power."

Warnings are everywhere. Why not prepare? Why sabotage our power, our future? Why set up an entire nation to fail? Diamond says: Unfortunately "one of the choices has depended on the courage to practice long-term thinking, and to make bold, courageous, anticipatory decisions at a time when problems have become perceptible but before they reach crisis proportions."

Sound familiar? "This type of decision-making is the opposite of the short-term reactive decision-making that too often characterizes our elected politicians," thus setting up the "inevitable" collapse. Remember, Greenspan, Bernanke, Bush, Paulson all missed the 2007-8 meltdown: It will happen again, in a bigger crisis.

3. Wall Street sacked Washington

Bogle warned of a growing three-part threat -- a "happy conspiracy" -- in "The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism:" "The business and ethical standards of corporate America, of investment America, and of mutual fund America have been gravely compromised."

But since his book, "Wall Street America" went over to the dark side, got mega-greedy and took control of "Washington America." Their spoils of war included bailouts, bankruptcies, stimulus, nationalizations and $23.7 trillion new debt off-loaded to the Treasury, Fed and American people.

Who's in power? Irrelevant. The "happy conspiracy" controls both parties, writes the laws to suit its needs, with absolute control of America's fiscal and monetary policies. Sorry Jack, but the "Battle for the Soul of Capitalism" really was lost.

4. When greed was legalized

Go see Michael Moore's documentary, "Capitalism: A Love Story." "Disaster Capitalism" author Naomi Klein recently interviewed Moore in The Nation magazine: "Capitalism is the legalization of this greed. Greed has been with human beings forever. We have a number of things in our species that you would call the dark side, and greed is one of them. If you don't put certain structures in place or restrictions on those parts of our being that come from that dark place, then it gets out of control."

Greed's OK, within limits, like the 10 Commandments. Yes, the soul can thrive around greed, if there are structures and restrictions to keep it from going out of control. But Moore warns: "Capitalism does the opposite of that. It not only doesn't really put any structure or restrictions on it. It encourages it, it rewards" greed, creating bigger, more frequent bubble/bust cycles.

It happens because capitalism is now in "the hands of people whose only concern is their fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders or to their own pockets." Yes, greed was legalized in America, with Wall Street running Washington.

5. Triggering the end of our 'life cycle'

Like Diamond, Faber also sees the historical imperative: "Every successful society" grows "out of some kind of challenge." Today, the "life cycle" of capitalism is on the decline.

He asks himself: "How are you so sure about this final collapse?" The answer: "Of all the questions I have about the future, this is the easiest one to answer. Once a society becomes successful it becomes arrogant, righteous, overconfident, corrupt, and decadent ... overspends ... costly wars ... wealth inequity and social tensions increase; and society enters a secular decline." Success makes us our own worst enemy.

Quoting 18th century Scottish historian Alexander Fraser Tytler: "The average life span of the world's greatest civilizations has been 200 years" progressing from "bondage to spiritual faith ... to great courage ... to liberty ... to abundance ... to selfishness ... to complacency ... to apathy ... to dependence and ... back into bondage!"

Where is America in the cycle? "It is most unlikely that Western societies, and especially the U.S., will be an exception to this typical 'society cycle.' ... The U.S. is somewhere between the phase where it moves 'from complacency to apathy' and 'from apathy to dependence.'"

In short, America is a grumpy old man with hardening of the arteries. Our capitalism is near the tipping point, unprepared for a catastrophe, set up for collapse and rapid decline.

15 more clues capitalism lost its soul ... is a disaster waiting to happen

Much more evidence litters the battlefield:

  1. Wall Street wealth now calls the shots in Congress, the White House

  2. America's top 1% own more than 90% of America's wealth

  3. The average worker's income has declined in three decades while CEO compensation exploded over ten times

  4. The Fed is now the 'fourth branch of government' operating autonomously, secretly printing money at will

  5. Since Goldman and Morgan became bank holding companies, all banks are back gambling with taxpayer bailout money plus retail customer deposits

  6. Bill Gross warns of a "new normal" with slow growth, low earnings and stock prices

  7. While the White House's chief economist retorts with hype of a recovery unimpeded by the "new normal"

  8. Wall Street's high-frequency junkies make billions trading zombie stocks like AIG, FNMA, FMAC that have no fundamental value beyond a Treasury guarantee

  9. 401(k)s have lost 26.7% of their value in the past decade

  10. Oil and energy costs will skyrocket

  11. Foreign nations and sovereign funds have started dumping dollars, signaling the end of the dollar as the world's reserve currency

  12. In two years federal debt exploded from $11.2 to $23.7 trillion

  13. New financial reforms will do little to prevent the next meltdown

  14. The "forever war" between Western and Islamic fundamentalists will widen

  15. As will environmental threats and unfunded entitlements

"America Capitalism" is a "Lost Soul" ... we've lost our moral compass ... the coming collapse is the end of an "inevitable" historical cycle stalking all great empires to their graves. Downsize your lifestyle expectations, trust no one, not even media.

Faber is uncertain about timing, we are not. There is a high probability of a crisis and collapse by 2012. The "Great Depression 2" is dead ahead. Unfortunately, there's absolutely nothing you can do to hide from this unfolding reality or prevent the rush of the historical imperative.

OK, well maybe it's time to wind down this post, and this blog.

Let's say goodbye to the Good, The Bad, and The Ugly.

Well, The Good certainly includes marge.

She was really the only woman I know who could tolerate this band of smelly cunts for 5 seconds and held her own better than any man here. Here's to you marge.

To Tim: His apostrophatic proclivitie's kepts' me tune'd to his's every word's.

To round out The Good, who could forget Brucey? Always on the verge of doing Great Things... but never quite getting there. Maybe that is all you can do in a place like Bend.

Finally the Duncster, the only dude who I thought should really be mayor of this place, and still the only merchant downtown who I don't think is a total shyster.

The Bad almost certainly has Buster at the top of the list. He was the one person who probably wrote more here than I did.

You might only remember the profanity & Thai Sex fantasies... but the guy tuned in to JR when it was a nothing, and nailed it.

We salute you Buster, you lying fucknut, may Thai-middles-schoolers forever be spelunking into your wretched-smelling cavernous twat, you nasty sunofa bitch.

And I am forgetting a lot of people here, but God love you, you crazy bastards.

Now The Ugly, we need only review the RIP list, which I might say with some pride was surprisingly accurate in predicting the demise of some of Costa's media sweethearts.

Becky Breeze & The Plaza. Little Baby Jeebus, please see clear to smiting this Old Mill Pile Of Defaulted Dogshit and push it into the Deschutes, along with the rest of the Old Mill, where it all belongs. Condos in Bend is the worst RE idea in Bend history.. except for The Shire & Tuscany Buttplugs. And those shitty row houses on Colorado. Geez... always gotta act like this is Frisco.

Let's stop acting like this town is something it's NOT GAT DAMMIT!

Tetherow, Thornburgh Ranch, Brasada, Pronghorn, and all the rest of the Greed-Fueled chameleon subdivs that now pockmark our pristine landscape in either semi-finished or litigation-hamstrung limbo, Fuck The Lot of You. I hope you all get the financial AIDS and die of gonorrhea.

The Shire: The Epitome of Moronic Faux Pretentious Intellectualism. What a Bunch of fucking idiot douches. The Shire. Get a lobotomy you moron dipshits.

Forum Meadows: Pollock looks like the quintessential dumbass now, holding back every single house in this tubleweed strewn pile of crap. Feelin' pretty smart Pollock? The only thing Forum Meadows is good for is illustrating how HORRIBLE a place Bend really is to do business. Don't buy a house there, unless you want to DOUBLE DOWN on fixing it up. Those places will fall to the ground in under 5 years, like half of the STD riddled East side.

John Costa: Well, dude, you suck ass. You run a paper that has been discredited 100X over. And still you stand tall. I have to admire Blind Idiocy like that on some level...maybe in the fungal-ridden flap of skin between my asshole & my balls. You & your retarded fucking whore sister, The Incredible Hulce, should move to Burns & fuck each other in the ass until you die, Hulcey using a gigantic black strap-on, of course.

Randy Sebastian: What a stupid cunt. This cross-armed mega-faggot finally succumbed to the Bend Taint, before the flesh-eating virus devoured his puffed up chest. I am only certain of one thing in this life: This guy gets pumped up the ass by a brigade of gigantic black felons every night.

Bend City Council: Fuck you losers. You fuckers are actually still in a place to do something good, but are too retarded & convinced of your own munificence to do anything of the kind. So FUCK YOU for whatever boondoggle you are about to undertake, cuz I know whatever it is, it's utterly IMBECILIC, and will take this City one step closer to inevitable BK.

Thank Jeebus, that the Tuscan Mania finally bit the dust. Tuscany Buttplugs, now a long distant memory is just a bunch of Tyvek flapping in the wind. Better that than even one of those moronic Tuscan themed condo turds getting sold.

Good riddance to Communal Frisk Bankers (Prineville Bank), which finally bit the dust. And don't worry Mossy, Sheila BearHug will be coming for you. CACB will go down in flames sooner than later. You ugly wretched cunt. Gat damn you ugly.

And as an aside: Who in the fuck is crazy enough to buy in on that recap of CACB? Notice the incumbent ID investor who lost his ass because of Moss, will not put in another cent, unless a lot of other dumbfucks throw in like $70 mill first. DUH! Why throw 1 red cent into a bank that is technically insolvent! And not just insolvent, but with a HUGE NEGATIVE NET WORTH. He might as well start from nothing. CACB is going down. Soon.

Patty Moss should be reviled as one of the WORST BUSINESS PEOPLE THIS TOWN HAS EVER SEEN. Will she be? Fuck no. Old Boy Network will see to that. Once you're in the Inner Sanctum of this Backwoods Butt-Fuckery shithole, you're gold. They take care of their own here, no matter how brain damaged (see Mark Capell, City Council, and half of the officials in City Hall). God, this place sucks. Anyway...

COBA, COVA, Visit Bend, EDCO and the rest of the Government funded ripoffs that continue to this day to rob taxpayers: Fuck you goons, I hope Jeebus smites you fuckers good. You wanna CUT something City Council? Start with these FUCKERS.

deep, Merenda, Volo, Bluefish, and the rest of the pretentious upscale bullshit restaurants that briefly made us feel like the Big Time, and not a bunch of Invaders living in a mountain trailer park. Good Riddance you fuckers. But next time... take a Cali banger or two with you on the way outta town.

OK, that be about it, my Niggaz.

I'm going to leave this post up a bit longer than usual, seeing as how it's the last one. I'll probably shut off comments on Dec 17, 3 years to the day this fiasco got started. On Dec 31, I'll probably redirect the site to

I'm hoping to somehow spider the site & it's comments, and maybe try to save it for posterity. Maybe it's safe with the Goog's, who knows. It is probably the most work I've ever put into a single project. If I do manage to get it all saved, maybe I'll post something on Dunc's blog about where to download it, if you're interested. There's some pretty wicked shit in this thing.

Time to start a New Decade fresh. Don't know when, but there's going to be Good Buys in the next 10 years ahead, but we're not there yet. Stay frosty... stay liquid... buy when people have 100% and completely given up, and they don't care about what they get... they just want out. That day is coming.

Remember: Bend is 99% Empty Marketing. We're going to have to burn through that Falsified Image with years of persistently high unemployment, before people finally succumb to the idea that BEND SUX. Then you'll see H3 Hummers for a buck.

The Decade of Hubris is ending. The Decade of Humility has begun.

But one more time: Right this minute, we're in the Obama-Jeebus Last Hoorah. This country cannot survive what's happening now, and have even a semblance of it's past financial "glory". We're the Worlds Debtor. We're The Poorest Country on Earth... soon.

I still think there is a lot of demand for some kind of unmoderated, no-holds-barred forum about this town. Fuck, maybe it'll be me who starts it. But it probably won't be a blog, if I do. Maybe along the lines of what BendBB has going... except it would of course, NOT track IP's, nor filter comments. Again, I'll probably post anything like that at Dunc's blog, if he'll post it.

It doesn't have to cover the Bubble... really we're facing the Final Collapse. It'll last for years & years. The Bully will implode, so will CACB. It'd be a shame to leave reporting it to the Yellow-Kangaroo Journalism of this one-horse shithole. I'm sure the Bully will find the Silver Lining in it's own demise.

But that's it. The Bubble is Over. Long live The Great Unwind, the long slow bleed-out of Bend.

And one more time... don't "Buy" this current "recovery": Wolf in sheeps clothing, and you my friends are paying for it. Largest redistribution of wealth in history. You're getting sheared.

Well, siyonara brothers & sisters...

Paul D.

Bye bye Busta! I miss you ravaging my twat!

Won't someone please titty-fuck me soon!

Dunc, please bring back Japanese porno VHS tapes. Me love you wrong time!

Gat Damn. That's the one I'd take, right dare.
You white Supremacist Bend motha fuckas don't deserve my black-ass snatch!

They might be fake, but they fuckable!
How many fishnet MILF's it take to change a lightbulb?
Timmy, I cant's find's me apostrophes's!Sunafa Bitch. I'd fuck that right there.

I've had black, so I can't go back to this.... unless I been in prison.There you go Buster. Last one's for you.


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IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Holy Fucking Shit.... that was a long one.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I well & truly shot my wad.

It's gonna take 6 months to fucking reload.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And feel free to post whatever you want with regards to new blogs or sites along the lines of Bend, RE, or whatever...

Anonymous said...

It was a good run dude.

Duncan McGeary said...

You're just feeling pressure to keep topping yourself.

You could keep this blog going just by putting up a weekly post:

"What do you assholes have to say this week?"

Anonymous said...

Great stuff over the years my brutha'. I have been lurking here since BEM's blog got started. Never posted much (mostly because I'm an inarticulate idiot), but I became aware of the massive bullshit frenzy in this town due in large part to this and a few other blogs. I always wanted to buy you a beer after this thing popped, and maybe I have and never knew it. Sunday mornings wont be the same, but damn, the time you put into this thing had to have gotten old, so I don't blame you for killing this thing. Good luck out there.

Longtime Bendbubble cunt

Duncan McGeary said...

I mean, you don't have to be entertaining and insightful EVERY week.

Look at me. Heh.

I look in today's headlines and I know there is a wealth of blog fodder.

"Job Growth -- for those who can wait."

(Which is like saying, food, for those who can afford to starve...)

Or the fact that only 13 building permits were issued in October. Economy of Bend ain't going nowhere without the jobs.

I don't even have to read John Costa's "Standards in Journalism's New World," to know there's something there to comment about.

"Supply, demand and the post-Clunker rise in Car Prices" -- and the law of unintended consequences...

Come on, man! Don't give up!

Don't leave me with Buster!!!

Anonymous said...

Butter! Wait! This is one of your greatest posts. There has to be more. The past few months it's been hard to find fodder worth mentioning. The USA collapse is worth yapping about in some form, with you as Da Man..
I have mostly enjoyed the poking from you and the boyz over the past 2 1/2 years. Thanks for the mention today.
I shall continue to prepare for the unsure future we have before us by stocking up, honing my tactical skills and buying tangibles at great discounts.
Thanks for the memories.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

There *may* be a new app for documenting this thing in the future.

But it really seems like trouncing the Bend media, the RE Puffers, the wretched local gov't and just cataloging the slow bleed-out of this town is getting monotonous.

Man, I'm ALL FOR someone writing their own stuff w/ unmoderated comments... even Bend Bubble Man edited out a lot of my stuff.

I'm sort of in that nether region between blown off peak and harrowing bottom.... there's not a lot to do. Someone asked me when I started this thing "How do you expect to make money, while never putting your money at risk?". Well, asked & answered: I didn't expect to MAKE anything on the decline, I just didn't want to get killed.

I personally know a LOT of people whose financial lives have been ruined by Bend RE & Bend puffery.

But it seems that at some point in the next decade we'll come upon a time when you should go ALL IN... and man will it be calamitous. People will want out at any cost.

But that time is off a ways, and while I'd like to fire up the blog machinery when that time is here... it's not time yet.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Butter! Wait! This is one of your greatest posts.

Thanks Young Margie! You goddess!

Anonymous said...

Holy shit, now I'm really I've got to go on without the comfort of knowing that I'm not the only person who thinks the shit going on is fucking insane. Cheers.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Molony, with the National Association of Realtors, pegs the number of bank-owned properties currently sold nationwide at 20 percent of all properties.

Sheree MacRitchie, a Bend Realtor who will assume the presidency of the Central Oregon Association of Realtors in 2010, said the number in Bend is roughly 35 percent.

Say it ain't so!

Anonymous said...

Man ... you seriously belong in the looney bin.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Man ... you seriously belong in the looney bin.

Dude, I seriously appreciate you making the walk up from China Hat Road to read my blog & make a parting comment.

Sorry "RE Broker" did not work out as your career. I'm pretty sure Subway is hiring downtown.

Good luck to you brother.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

making the walk up from China Hat Road

To the library.

MDHN09 said...

and this is the beginning

blackdog said...

Nice job for the past three years, Homeboy, although I still think you were wrong to not moderate comments and allow loonies like Buster to take over.

I'll read today's post when I get a few weeks' vacation. Fucking thing is longer than War and Peace.

One last remark in conclusion: I am the person who coined the phrase "The Doctrine of Bend Exceptionalism," not Hollern. It was my name (given in the Wandering Eye blog) for the mentality Hollern was describing. It's derived from the phrase "The Doctrine of American Exceptionalism."


MDHN09 said...

"everyone's still listening, still in a trance"

off course it is a trance, We are experiencing alien take over. And like i said, denial of this now is like denying there was an RE bubble- pure ignorance and the unwillingness or inability to understand simple facts.

Next RE boom is Obama and the Norwegians with a plan that has been in the works for a long time.

blackdog said...

"America Capitalism" is a "Lost Soul" ... we've lost our moral compass ... the coming collapse is the end of an "inevitable" historical cycle stalking all great empires to their graves."

By a strange coincidence, today is the 49th anniversary of The Day America Started Turning Into Shit.

Anonymous said...

The Doctrine of Bend Exceptionalism came about by Bend comparing itself to places that had at least a modicum of exceptionalism and assuming Bend would become as desirable and expensive. The problem is that Bend never had anything exceptional at its core. Sure, it's a nice place and attractive in many ways--but so are very many places throughout the western U.S., New England and elsewhere.

Unlike Bend, places like Boulder have exceptional universities; Jackson Hole and several places in Colorado, Utah and Idaho have exceptional skiing; Santa Fe has long (very long) had an exceptional art market; Napa, Sonoma, and San Luis Obispo counties have exceptional wineries; southern California and Hawaii have exceptional beaches.

I could add to the list and add more factors to the places already on this random list (Boulder is a short freeway drive from all Denver has, including its major airport; Santa Fe is a short freeway drive from Albuquerque and its large airport . . .). But we know that there is nothing similar on Bend's list.

Bend is nice but not exceptional. Only truly exceptional places become exceptionally desirable and sustain especially high real estate prices over long periods of time. The nice places do okay, unless they get ahead of themselves and decide that they are exceptional.

I like simply nice places more than exceptional places--but only nice places that don't believe that they are somehow exceptional.

Unless Paul Allen decides to build a truly world class university in Bend, plus a freeway through Bend--from Boise to I-5, cutting through the Cascades--Bend will remain a nice place and will never see exceptional real estate prices again. I think Bend is better off without the high prices, and the turmoil of unstable prices.

MDHN09 said...


its all symbols and math, the ancients knew this. We are fucked oh so good.

- loosing the soul is not a good thing.

ironically it should be mentioned that both 11 and 22 are power numbers. What is the date today?

Anonymous said...

it should also be mentioned it's a good thing this thing is being shut down so we don't have to deal with years of the fucking lunatic MDHN09

MDHN09 said...

we don't have to deal with years of the fucking lunatic MDHN09

i know the inside code of your DNA, not going anywhere. Prepare.

Anonymous said...

"One last remark in conclusion: I am the person who coined the phrase "The Doctrine of Bend Exceptionalism," not Hollern. It was my name (given in the Wandering Eye blog) for the mentality Hollern was describing. It's derived from the phrase "The Doctrine of American Exceptionalism.""

Right up to the very end, HBM (The Pompous One), has to let everyone know just how fucking smart he is. So fitting.

By the way, Bruce, when you feel it's important to let people know that some stupid stolen phrase, used on some blog, was yours, you've really hit bottom.

Anonymous said...

This blog died months (okay 1.5 years ago) when HBM (aka Black Negro Noir Darkie) started humping Bruce Pussy (aka Bruce Ewert Mormon Jail Baiter ButtPlug Mayoral Wannabe) online, with Duncan (aka Village Idiot with a Minimum Wage job) watching on the sideline, and periodically humping in a three way.

But glad you finally pulled the plug on this blog.

It just was not very Earth friendly, in a sustainable kinda way, since the life support electrical bills were not very enviro, bro. Better to take the bandwidth elsewhere.

Thanks Butter.

Thanks for nothing, BP, HBP, Dunc, you assholes.

Anonymous said...

Yar, it was a good run matey!

Anonymous said...

Don't need to listen to those anon assholes anymore, do we? Why would anyone, that knew Dunc, call him an asshole? He is swells above the crowd that has gathered here for the last 6 months or so.

blackdog said...

"Right up to the very end, HBM (The Pompous One), has to let everyone know just how fucking smart he is."

And right up to the very end you have to let everyone know what a nasty, mean-spirited, close-minded, petty, spiteful, vindictive piece of shit you are ... anonymously, of course.

Fuck you and all the other cowardly anonymous imbeciles who infest this site.

MDHN09 said...

pay attention the new dimensions are forming- QUICKLY. The sun as we know is changing. We have evolved, nwo is dead-but much more pain to be felt. WAKE UP.

ALL that we have been told is a lie, the game has begun- PREPARE..

Slacker said...

Good job on the blog...I understand your decision to shut it down.
I must thank you. I have followed this since the beginning of BEM's blog, when you were a fringe voice. I took many of your words to heart, and it helped me tremendously. I had a home there. I wondered about the rapid rise in prices. I started reading BEM's blog and looked into what you guys were ranting about. I got out, and am very happpy I did. I sold just after the top in my neighborhood. Now, prices for similar homes are about $100K less than what I sold for. Although I had my own suspicions about what was going on, your rants and the data that you pointed to were definitely helpful in guiding my decision to sell and movde on. Many thanks, and good luck to you and yours.

Anonymous said...

Gonna miss you Butter. Feel like I'm losing a brother in arms. -Panda

Anonymous said...

A sincere thanks for your blog.
Although it frequently got off topic, there was a lot of careful thought and research to post what you did. It can not be easy to hold down a job, and put this together at the same time.
Think about taking a one year sabbatical, and maybe bringing it back. In one year, we will have a much clearer picture of the national and state economy, how the mid-term elections went, and whether the public woke up to these huge bailouts for the financial industry.Could be an interesting time in the history of our country.
Thanks again. May you enjoy good health, prosperity, and a long life.

MDHN09 said...

Thanks again. May you enjoy good health, prosperity, and a long life.

Gratitude is the only path,in the this time of Galactic re-alignment.


Anonymous said...

"Fuck you and all the other cowardly anonymous imbeciles who infest this site."

Fitting end to his bloviating...
...since it began with:
"Fuck you and all the other Republicans."

And as for The Village Idiot, he jumped the shark when he went on his Obama-is-Messiah delusional rant-fest while home sick, and lost his marbles when he could not tell who he was arguing with, as to Dunc one anon was the same as another anon. Maybe a nice Village Idiot, but an nice asshole just the same.

Anonymous said...

Fuck you and all the other cowardly anonymous imbeciles who infest this site.

Enjoy the weather moron!

I propose we set up an aftercare site so people can still bitch and moan about shit that may or may not be true. If people let that shit build up and it could turn out tragic.

Anonymous said...

"And right up to the very end you have to let everyone know what a nasty, mean-spirited, close-minded, petty, spiteful, vindictive piece of shit you are ... anonymously, of course.

Fuck you and all the other cowardly anonymous imbeciles who infest this site."

That cuts me deep, DICKHEAD, that cuts me real deep.

LavaBear said...

The last time you announced you were done I was bummed. It just didn't feel like the right time. Now...I kind of shrug. It's been a damn good run and lately watching the collapse is about as much fun as watching paint dry. The bubble is over and now it's a matter of counting the corpse as they stack up. It becomes a bit too tedious. Thanks for the fun and I can't wait for Dec 17th 2010 when you start ranting about the next bubble.

MDHN09 said...

angry bubble-heads and cali-banger bitch's are one in the same. You have been genetically altered- dive inside and find the truth.
its simple math, just like uncovering the re bubble, what you know to be true is false.

MDHN09 said...

coming to get ya


blackdog said...

"We're The Poorest Country on Earth... soon."

Nah, we won't beat Haiti or Congo. Probably not even Kenya.

I think we're going to end up being a bigger version of England. And for the same reason: Trying to maintain our empire bankrupted us.

When you consider that the US has been in a state of actual or virtual war continuously since 1941, is it any wonder we're flat-ass broke?

Bewert said...

Quite the rant. OK, made it through about half. The rest soon.

Anyone want all my docs, just ask and I'll zip them up and send them to you. Long decided I was over Bend and let the URL fly off into the ether earlier this month.

The RE ghouls are incredibly aggressive here. I can't imagine, unless they've gone underground, what they are like over in your neck of the woods.

Oh, one link of interest recently:
Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for potential 'global collapse'

And then there are the comments. Even Marge snuck out.

Take care, Butter.


Re: Thanks for nothing, BP, HBP, Dunc, you assholes.


Sorry you couldn't be rich.

Bewert said...

Re: ying to maintain our empire bankrupted us.



It was maintained for those to whom the US was just another country to use.

Corps are not nationalistic, except in their rhetoric as need be.

Bewert said...

By the way, Bruce, when you feel it's important to let people know that some stupid stolen phrase, used on some blog, was yours, you've really hit bottom.


Is it better to know your efforts have made some impact? Which did nothing in the end.

Or to wonder what one commenter was referring to, perhaps from a link he neglected to proffer.

Bewert said...

By a strange coincidence, today is the 49th anniversary of The Day America Started Turning Into Shit.


Yep. Not long after Eisenhower's speech on the Military-Industrial-(Media-he took it out)-Complex speech:

We are paying even bigger bills today for adventurism to support "capitalism".

Bewert said...

Re: Man ... you seriously belong in the looney bin.

Dude, I seriously appreciate you making the walk up from China Hat Road to read my blog & make a parting comment.


Funniest thing I've read today.

Good luck. Got to finish this job now. Enough supper time, right?

Take care, Butter.

Bend Economy Man said...

Bend's bubble ends with a whimper. BB2 ends with a bang.

Paul you are awesome. We all owe you one.

Man I wonder where Life is Good is right about now. It's been unsatisfying that the bubble deniers have all turned into I-saw-it-coming-of-course-it-couldn't-lasts.

But we were right, they were wrong. We weren't right in the same way John Paulson was right; we were right in a less badass but still satisfying way. God Bless America which allows anyone living in a small town with a media conspiracy against revealing the town's biggest secret to start a blog and tell the truth. Maybe someday they'll make a movie about it.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

CACB @ $0.90/sh.

Good Job Moss.

MDHN09 said...

RE: : Yep. Not long after Eisenhower's speech on the Military-Industrial-(Media-he took it out)-Complex speech: "

Eisenhower was tapped in...

"Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific technological elite."


"We pray that peoples of all faiths, all races, all nations, may have their great human needs satisfied; that those now denied opportunity shall come to enjoy it to the full; that all who yearn for freedom may experience its spiritual blessings; that those who have freedom will understand, also, its heavy responsibilities; that all who are insensitive to the needs of others will learn charity; that the scourges of poverty, disease and ignorance will be made to disappear from the earth, and that, in the goodness of time, all peoples will come to live together in a peace guaranteed by the binding force of mutual respect and love."

unconditional love is the only way


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Maybe someday they'll make a movie about it.

That's one loooooooooooooong motherfuckin' movie!

Thanks BEM for getting this party started man. I STILL remember back in the day when you were asked for an interview (The idea we were in a "Bubble" was pretty novel back then...) after starting the original Bend Economy Blog, and said "No". I figured only 1 in 100 would say NO to the media in this town. I knew then that blog was going to be good.

Thank you my brother, live long & prosper.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

a small town with a media conspiracy against revealing the town's biggest secret...

Brings up a good point.

For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.

People like Costa, Hulce, KTVZ and the rest need to realize that at this point, people aren't buying the Pollyanna Bullshit anymore.

They need to realize that their RIDICULOUSLY slanted pieces are part of the reason this blog reached a certain level of "popular blowback". People have had it with being LIED TO.

They (Bend Media) need to be straight up in their reporting, and just start reporting FACTS... if that is at all possible.

This blog & others like it are only as popular as Bend Media is slanted.

Bewert said...

Re: CACB @ $0.90/sh.

Good Job Moss.


Looking at the chart for last month, it has been above $1 once since Nov.4th--on Nov. 20, last Friday, when someone suddenly bought about 100,000 shares at prices around 1.05 to 1.07, then it promptly dropped back down.

How long can CACB keep from being delisted? Isn't the rule 30 days under $1?

Maybe that will be when the truth will started being printed by Costa.


Re: Man I wonder where Life is Good is right about now.


Like I said before I left, just look at the top 50 and check out towns that suit your lifestyle:

You don't have to stay in #345.

Unless you bought in and are stuck with no savings or credit.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Bend Unemployment:

Oct 2009 - 13.6%

Oct 2008 - 8.7%

Things look terrif!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

WTF is going on with Tami Sawyer?

I thought she'd have had her smelly twat stretched out by some Cali-Meth-Fueled-Super-Dykes by now.

I can just imagine her getting double-teamed by some gigantic black strap-ons.

Ohhhh, the memories...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Live in a motel room, just like all those glamorous vagrants we've been hearing about!

$650 / 1br - Furnished condo blocks from downtown!!

Condo in the Bend Riverside Motel, just blocks from downtown Bend
* Fully furnished Condos at the Bend Riverside Motel

MDHN09 said...

ohh how i love to burst the "IHateToBurstYourBubble" BUBBLE..

the RE conspiracy is nothing compared to what we are gonna see in the coming days. Landings are happening in all over. The media is picking up on it in Nevada

The RE melt down is fucking child's play. Obama is gonna have to come clean with NASA secrets.

The humans have fucked up this world so much- we either have to travel back in time to fix, tap in to higher powers or get help. But the road to do that is gonna get fucking nasty in a country full of ignorance.


blackdog said...

"Yep. Not long after Eisenhower's speech on the Military-Industrial-(Media-he took it out)-Complex speech:"

I was thinking specifically of JFK's assassination. That ended our last best chance of breaking the grip of the MIC.

Almost 70 years of war takes a terrible toll on a nation. The Brits couldn't handle it, the Soviet Union couldn't handle it and we can't handle it.

blackdog said...

"Like I said before I left, just look at the top 50 and check out towns that suit your lifestyle:"

Bismarck ND and Fargo ND? Shit, I'd rather just starve in someplace warm.

And just because those places have low unemployment doesn't mean they have bustling economies with tens of thousands of jobs waiting. It means they haven't generated any new jobs in decades and the few available jobs are filled.

Bend is just the opposite -- it generated a shitload of jobs in a very brief period of time and thousands of people moved here to take them -- and then the jobs disappeared and they're out on their asses.

Bewert said...

Bank watch list climbs to 552
Number at risk of failing soars in latest quarter. Deposit insurance fund slips into the red for first time since 1991.

"The FDIC, which was created to cover the deposits of consumers and businesses in the event of bank failures, also revealed that its deposit insurance fund slipped into the red for the first time since 1991.

During the quarter, the value of the fund fell $18.6 to a negative $8.2 billion, partly because of $21.7 billion provision the agency took for future bank failures."

Bewert said...

I said top 50, not top three. Boulder, Fort Collins, Missoula, etc. Towns that didn't put all there hopes on being exceptional, but rather on higher education and a broader range of industry. You know, the kind that had four-year colleges decades ago.


"None will improve your lot if you yourself do not."
– Bertolt Brecht

Anonymous said...

I just realized a huge perk to BB2 going away...

Anonymous said...

Would also add Sante Fe, San Antonio, and Champaign, Ill. as great places to live.
Decent affordable housing, all college towns so some intellectual stimulation, and lots of good jobs.

MDHN09 said...

Look past the cooperate delivery system..AND fear of the bubble

THOSE who disregard what is happening are tossing out a HUGE piece of the puzzle. The government is holding onto anti-gravity technology (why we really invaded Iraq )

If you are not factoring in UFO's into government corruption you are blind, very blind. Don't be a REAL-A-dor of 2007...... do not ignore the signs at this point. It is time to arise. You cannot control a populous of enlightened people. The beginning is near.


Anonymous said...

First of all, thanks for your hard work over the years, researching economic numbers. Most importantly, you saved me from making the biggest mistake of my life.
I was planning on buying a house in Bend this year, as prices seemed more attractive. Reading your blog, it is obvious that there is no hurry to buy. Interest rates on mortgages may go up slightly, but the falling price of real estate, at least in BEND, will more than make up for it.
Many people in this town are just barely hanging on by their fingernails. As the unemployment stays high, most will loose their grasp, and either move in with a relative, leave the area, or just walk away from their toxic mortgage.
All of which means, real estate here has a LONG time to keep declining,probably another 5 years or so. Unless you have a secure government job, this is not the time to buy.
Thanks again, and as you sail through life, may the wind be at your back, your larder full, and calm seas be ahead.
Peace to the World, in 2010.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Fed: record-low rates designed to keep economic recovery going could feed speculative bubble

WASHINGTON - The Federal Reserve doesn't expect the recovery will be strong enough to quickly drive down the jobless rate, and acknowledged its efforts to keep the rebound going could feed a new speculative bubble.

Record-low interest rates "could lead to excessive risk-taking in financial markets," according to documents released Tuesday of the Fed's closed-door meeting earlier this month. It also could cause consumers, investors and businesses to worry about inflation taking off.

Although Fed officials saw the current likelihood of that as "relatively low," they pledged to "remain alert to these risks."

At the Nov. 3-4 meeting, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues kept the target range for its bank lending rate at zero to 0.25 percent.

Fed policymakers also pledged to hold rates at such super-low levels for an "extended period," to ensure the recovery gains traction. Most analysts predict that means rates will stay where they are through the rest of this year and into part of 2010.

On the economy, the Fed expects the unfolding recovery will be gradual, as modest growth keeps the nation's unemployment rate elevated over the next several years.

Most Fed policymakers said it could take "five or six years" for the economy and the labor market to be consistently healthy.

High unemployment, slow income growth and hard-to-get credit will weigh on consumer spending "for some time to come," the Fed said. Troubles in the commercial real-estate market also will restrain the recovery, according to minutes of the November meeting.

Fed officials expected the pace of the recovery "would be rather slow, relative to historical experience." Recoveries after steep economic downturns are usually robust, the Fed said.

In updated economic projections, the Fed said the economy's contraction for all of this year won't be as deep as it thought in a forecast released in the summer. That's because the second half of this year is shaping up better than anticipated.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Most importantly, you saved me from making the biggest mistake of my life.

Woo Hoo! Glad to hear it!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The government is holding onto anti-gravity technology (why we really invaded Iraq )

Kent Brockman: Kent Brockman here for a followup with Springfield's favorite
hard-luck family, the Simpsons. Folks, any words for the
Christmas thief if he's watching?
Homer: Eh, yes.. Kent. Uh, hello... jerk. We may never find you, and
we should probably all stop looking. But one thing's for sure
--you do exist.

Strong words. Strong, confusing words.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Let’s make a deal

Central Oregon’s private golf clubs are slashing their initiation fees in an attempt to lure new members during tough times. Here are a few examples of the discounts:
Club Was Now
Bend G&CC $10,000 $2,500
Broken Top Club $50,000 $13,000
Crosswater Club $20,000 $15,000

Now... think house prices.

Anonymous said...

"Bismarck ND and Fargo ND? Shit, I'd rather just starve in someplace warm."

Says the guy who is always cold.

Anonymous said...

If you told someone from ND how "cold" it gets in Bend, they would thank you for the laugh and remind you that it doesn't get that cold in Bend.

Whine on...

Jelement said...


Sad to see this blog go as I appreciated the insight. Knowing that the local media is always trying to paint a pretty picture of things meant this was exactly the kind of site I was looking for to hear the full story.

We too have not ventured into the housing market yet partially because of the information obtained here. Outside of the uptick in activity from the "expiring" homebuyers tax credit, things seem to be pretty stagnant, and I'm sure this winter will bring back the bigger price drops that haven't been happening as much lately.

BTW, I've had my suspicions over the months but I believe we met this past summer. It isn't often that you meet someone named Paul who calls you a cali-banger after all.

MDHN09 said...

RE: Strong words. Strong, confusing words.

Iraq is home to ancient civilizations-this you should know. The idea that there was not more advanced civilizations WAY before Christ and his boyz is an fucking ludicrous. The pyramids are OK proof,(being that we can not re build many of them today with all of our technology, telescopes and large cranes) but Iraq- the museums in Iraq and hillsides, which where destroyed had some good shit and it is all gone now.

The ancients knew things that we are just now begening to understand- denial of this is easy to understand, but do not be ignorant-


Anonymous said...

yes, I am going to Iraq, to see the Pyramids.

MDHN09 said...

Anonymous said...
yes, I am going to Iraq, to see the Pyramids,

they are or where likely there, but not my point.

This is SOOOOO MUCH BIGGER the the DJ and re market.

try and be open to future postings, most are not ready for this info- but bubble heads can see better then most.

MDHN09 said...

this is not new age bull shit, simple science getting smarter - what we have always done- evolved. The implications politically and economically are so much bigger then what the Fed or nwo may be able to do.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The Westward HOOOOOO Motel is for sale...

$1.75 mill...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

It isn't often that you meet someone named Paul who calls you a cali-banger after all.

Really? I meet those motha fuckas all the time!

MDHN09 said...

you really think the world leaders are not paying attention to crop circles growing in size, complexity and frequency???
ya really think its liberal ufo fools and drunk Englishman? really?

MDHN09 said...

more crop circles.. full length movie in previous post

do not forget you are tami sawyer fucked if you do not wake up now- might as well sell the precious metals and buy some
randy sebastian upgrades.

MDHN09 said...

just like forclosure the numbers rise and rise


MDHN09 said...

on the east coast tonight

Anonymous said...

Raise your hand if you click on MDHN09's links anymore.

Anyone? Anyone?

Ya, that's what I thought.

MDHN09 said...

again from tonight...

Log Number: US-11252009-0020
Submitted Date: 2009-11-25 22:31 GMT
Event Date: 2009-11-25 18:31 GMT
Status: Submitted
City: Russellville
Region: Arkansas
Country: US
Longitude: -93.1398
Latitude: 35.2828
Shape: Triangle
Distance: One mile or less
Entity Type: None
My daughters (6 years and 4 years) and I were driving on Interstate 40 West (mile marker 84) headed into Russellville when in front of us, maybe a half-mile to a mile, was a triangular shaped object slowly passing over the interstate. I do not remember it coming into view quickly especially since it seemed to be moving so slowly, only that it appeared and my daughters and I all noticed even as I was yelling for them to look. There was a radiant multi-colored prism like light at each of the corners, and a small flashing red light in between the two rear lights. The lights definitely were not those of any aircraft, as they were almost ball like and the rays or the light source itself seemed to have a glowing life or activity about them. The object appeared to be slightly tilted at about 20 degrees but at the moment was not turning, only drifting directly across us. My youngest daughter immediately upon seeing the object asked, "what is that daddy?" to which my oldest immediately responded, "a spaceship!" I go to grab my phone and notice the craft begin to arc in a horshoe, a slow deliberate curve away. I pull our vehicle over onto the shoulder of the interstate, against the wishes of my oldest daughter, and check my mirrors and wait for a semi to pass to get out. When I look back, it is further away and when I get my cell phone up to snap, it is gone behind the tree line. It didnt zoom away but definitely seemed to speed up somewhat, although its lights never turned from the original direction they were facing, even when pulling the arc away behind the tree line. My heart was pounding, it was so real and intense and obviously not an airplane, or aircraft as we would think of them. I got back in the blazer and we sped to pass the tree line and view the sky openly. When we broke past the curve and saw the sky wide open there was nothing that could explain what we just saw, and upon it seeming to disappear, my daughter inquisitively asked, "daddy, was it an alien spaceship?" I hope this helps with anything, and if you need anything else please e-mail me

this is from

MDHN09 said...

Raise your hand if you click on MDHN09's links anymore.

Anyone? Anyone?

Ya, that's what I thought.

this is the same angry asshole, that wanted to get ride of me last week. Go back to the couch and watch the" The Simpsons " this is WAY beyond you. You are perfect example of the dumbing down of America- the links that have been chosen are very elementary and you can not follow-

do you really think I am gonna quite posting links here?

MDHN09 said...

so now I really want to take over this blog- being that we are on the last days all the better and an angry bubble head does not like my links

Do you all not think that some sort of higher intelligence could not completely destroy us with one simple energy wave? that is not gonna happen, but the world leaders operate from fear and shit is gonna get crazy. Homeland Security takes on a whole new role and the government cannot hide it.

Anonymous said...

You forgot, PREPARE, in that one. You whacked out dickhead.

Anonymous said...

In the 1950's, the military had above ground nuclear testing in Nevada. All citizens were assured this was "safe".
One of the tests involved flying manned aircraft directly INTO the mushroom cloud, to "see what would happen."
What happened is that the crew got very, very sick.
Yes, we certainly should believe what the government tells us regarding the economy, house prices,the deficit, and taxes.

blackdog said...

"I was planning on buying a house in Bend this year, as prices seemed more attractive. Reading your blog, it is obvious that there is no hurry to buy."

If you investigate a little further you'll find there's no particular reason to buy a house in Bend EVER.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

You forgot, PREPARE, in that one. You whacked out dickhead.

Now THAT is funny!

Anonymous said...

blackdog said...
"If you investigate a little further you'll find there's no particular reason to buy a house in Bend EVER."

Let's see here. There are prolly around 200k+ people living in the metro Bend area. Some of whom would have you believe that they were duped, and that's why they're here.

A small minority of them came without doing what should have been at least some form of rudimentary research on the area; its, climate, economy (or lack there of), politics, etc., etc.

Then you have those like HBM. An aging, bitter, washed-up hack of a has-been reporter. Never really made it to the "bigtime" with that fancy Princeton degree of his. His piss-poor attitude on life, not so delicately weaving its way through his tired scratchings.

But, my friend, the vast majority of those living in Central Oregon are happy they're here. It's a wonderful place to live and to raise a family. So proceed with your due diligence, get a good deal on a new home, and welcome to Central Oregon. I'm sure you'll enjoy it as much as I and thousands of other have for years and years to come!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Looks like a hard down day in stocks coming...

MDHN09 said...

coming to get ya

oh yea

PREPARE.. if you know how...

MDHN09 said...



Status: Assigned
City: Martin
Region: Kentucky
Country: US
Longitude: -82.7593
Latitude: 37.5458
Shape: Cigar,Star-like
Distance: One mile or less
Vallee Index: FB2
I was feeding my dog, looked up seeing two solid lights traveling north east. The light appeared to be attached to the same object. At arms length it would have taken two dollar bills end to end to cover it up. Usally when I see aircraft I can al least hear the engine, or rotors. I estimate a altitude of about 2000feet, not sure for it being dark outside was judgeing in relation to the mountains. I watched this thing for about 1 1/2 minutes before it vanished. Didn't have a camera or phone with me, was feeding my dog not expecting to see anything that needed recording. For some reason I couldn't look away, guess I was amazed to see something like that.

MDHN09 said...


MDHN09 said...


MDHN09 said...


MDHN09 said...

eeeek es yarim dom kop....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I like how Mountain Comfort has crashed & burned... but then I spy Dee Dee Keith on the back of CBN celebrating the opening of it's successor...

What's Old Is New Again...

Bend -- Home of The Bad Debt Recyclers.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

So proceed with your due diligence, get a good deal on a new home, and welcome to Central Oregon.

Ummmm.... in 5 years at DOWN 40-50% from here.... and I'll agree.

Now is a terrible time to buy here if you care at all about your financial future.

Many, MANY house will go below $100K ($50/sf), and that will be an OK time to buy in Bend...

Anonymous said...

Remember how when Homer seemed to vanish into thin air earlier this year, and we were told to go to Bend Bubble 3? Look I found it:

MDHN09 said...

angry bubble heads and cali banger bitches- ONE IN THE SAME

prepare if you know how

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Now that I hear the Party Line is "The Dubai Debt problem is No Big Deal", I know the Dubai Debt Problem is a BIG DEAL.

Oh right.....


Anonymous said...

Nice catch, IHTBYB.


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

What a difference a few years makes:

New values

Bigger may have seemed better during the housing boom, but since the market went bust, many homebuilders have shifted to constructing smaller houses with less extravagant amenities in an attempt to sell at a competitive price and meet buyers’ price demands.

From first-time homebuyers to retirees looking for a vacation home, people are searching for ways to save cash on home purchases because of the tough economic times, builders said. The result is that some builders have become more mindful in planning and building new homes in an attempt to keep home prices low.

“I think everybody right now is in a mode to save money,” said Dennis Pahlisch, founder of Bend-based Pahlisch Homes.

While large homes were commonplace a few years ago, most builders are shaving off a few hundred square feet to knock a few thousand dollars off a home’s price.

Pahlisch said some builders are cutting or reducing features such as extensive exterior architectural rock.

“Every few thousand dollars makes a difference nowadays,” he said.

The same trend is true elsewhere. The Wall Street Journal reported this month that builders and architects across the nation are taking Jacuzzis, extra pantries and additional square footage out of initial home plans to rein in home sizes and prices.


"We seem to be dealing with a group of buyers who is very mobile and they enjoy dining at a fancy restaurant and cruising the shops," Swan said. "The downtown becomes their backyard."

They're willing to pay for the convenience.

Swan said he and his partner haven't yet decided a price for their units, which range from 800 to 2,000 square feet.

But like others, they are planning a project that doesn't skimp on luxuries. One feature they are considering is a sliding glass wall that opens out onto a deck, creating a sort of seamless indoor and outdoor summer environment.

Add stainless steel appliances, wood floors and cabinets, granite countertops and buyers can expect prices in the neighborhood of $400 per square foot, Swan confirmed.

Local real estate agent Becky Breeze and her husband are building a 42-unit condominium project in the Old Mill District. Breeze already has sold most of her units. She said buyers know what they want and they don't balk at prices.

"They want to live in a custom home," Breeze said. "And they don't want to sacrifice quality. They want to be close to walking trails and the mountains. They're really mobile and they have a lot of money," she said.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

most builders are shaving off a few hundred square feet to knock a few thousand dollars off a home’s price....

Yeah. Do the math on this.

MINUS $2,000 for MINUS 200sf.

They're subtracting $10 for each sf they take off the house.

Ask if they'll BUILD a house, and ADD square footage for $10/sf.


This is a story about builders trying to make as much money selling dinky crapper houses as they did big houses.


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


Filling in the Old Mill District

The $80 million to $85 million Mercato's retail space, with its 400-plus spaces of underground parking, is designed to be unique enough to be an attraction in its own right, Trono said, with a European-style mix of small restaurants and food stands, shops, and larger spaces designed to draw people in for a leisurely experience, similar to San Francisco's redeveloped Ferry Building. He expects no problems with filling it, even though it will add almost 17 percent to the district's existing retail and restaurant space.

Trono is shooting to have at least one of the giant project's top-floor condominiums ready for the Central Oregon Builders Association Tour of Homes in July 2009.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Can you spot the "Bend Exceptionalism" circa 2007?

Filling in the Old Mill District

In a softening residential real estate market, the saleability of the district's condo and townhome projects remains to be seen.

The marketers of Pahlisch Homes' riverside Deschutes Landing on the district's south end, Becky Breeze's and Tom Wurzel's The Plaza condominiums next to The Shops at The Old Mill District, and Trono's Mercato are all banking on uniqueness to set them apart.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The marketers of Pahlisch Homes' riverside Deschutes Landing on the district's south end, Becky Breeze's and Tom Wurzel's The Plaza condominiums next to The Shops at The Old Mill District, and Trono's Mercato are all banking on uniqueness to set them apart.

My God. Only in Bend.

3 RE Schill's... ALL banking on UNIQUENESS to set them apart.

My God. Please smite this fucking town and it's NARCISSISTIC fucking RE douchebags. PLEASE!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

JOB INTERVIEWER: "So what do you three think is your best asset in applying for this job?"

TRONO: "Uniqueness."
BREEZE: "Uniqueness."
PAHLISCH: "Uniqueness."

JOB INTERVIEWER: "Huh. Interesting. OK, can you each tell me about what makes you unique?"

TRONO: "Ummmm, no."
BREEZE: "Ummmm, Bend?"
PAHLISCH: "Uhhh, uniqueness?"

MDHN09 said...

RE: My God. Please smite this fucking town and it's NARCISSISTIC fucking RE douchebags. PLEASE!

you have no idea what is coming...


MDHN09 said...

Defiantly a hot air balloon

better get your game on....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Defiantly a hot air balloon

You're damn right it's DEFIANT!


MDHN09 said...


yes this sums up the intelligence of this, "Simpson Dumbed DOWN American crew" .. all apart of the play book.

release the anger my friends.. it is the only way.

eek es yarim dom kop

Anonymous said...

This guy is suckin so bad, I think I miss BP....

Anonymous said...

MDHN09 is going to be, sadly, the last commenter on Butter's Bend RE blog.


Anonymous said...

The world financial markets will have many "surprises" in the next year. The country of Dubai defaulting on billion in debt is only the start. Some incident, like this, will trigger a massive drop in the stock market.
During the depression, the stock market rallied, then sank lower. It did this several times, over a period of about 6 or 7 years. When it was done, stocks had lost 90% of their value.
This recession has a LONG way to go, and people will be surprised about many things that loose most of their value.
When you can't put food on the table, things like jewelery, snowmobiles, jet skis, and big SUV's, and luxury homes, are going to drop in value like a lead balloon.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

'Emerging Trends' in real estate: Cynical, bearish, 'green'

Real estate developers should quit and go play golf for three years, and owners of office space will make only cynical nods at efforts to improve energy efficiency in the nation's apartments and workplaces.

Those are some of the points raised in the annual 'Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2010' report – an encyclopedic compilation of forecasts, recent market trends and gossip compiled by PriceWaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute. The report will have its Portland debut at a breakfast event on Tuesday.

The report suggests real estate developers would be best served to go play golf for three years: "Write Off the Year, as Well as 2011 and Probably 2012. You can close up shop, hit the links, convert operations to asset and property management, or become a workout specialist like everyone else."

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

MDHN09 is going to be, sadly, the last commenter on Butter's Bend RE blog.


MDHN09 said...


Bizarre calf mutilations found on Colorado ranch
(AP) – 2 days ago

SAN LUIS, Colo. — A creepy string of calf mutilations in southern Colorado has a rancher and sheriff's officials mystified, and a UFO chaser thinks extraterrestrials are involved.

Four calves were found dead in a pasture just north of the New Mexico state line in recent weeks. The dead calves had their skins peeled back and organs cleared from the rib cage. One calf had its tongue removed.

But rancher Manuel Sanchez has found no signs of human attackers — such as footprints or ATV tracks — or animal attackers — such as pools of blood. Sheriff's officers tell The Pueblo Chieftan they're baffled.

It's led to speculation the mutilations are the work of aliens. An area UFO chaser, Chuck Zukowski of Colorado Springs, says another calf was found dead near Trinidad earlier this year, its ears removed.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Chuck Zukowski of Colorado Springs, says another calf was found dead near Trinidad earlier this year, its ears removed.


Someone found a dead animal! What the fuck is going on!!!!

Sunufa Bitch! MDHGXE099, dude this is FAR MORE IMPORTANT THAN JUST UFO's!!!!

Get Obama on the horn! We're all fucked!!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

oh right...


MDHN09 said...

Obama? come on dude you are smarter then that... media, fear, hope, change... Obama will spoon feed this bull shit to the world like honey creampie- just wait its coming. When some asshole is posting on a real estate blog from bend oregoon, we are main stream.

don't be ignorant.. you gotta look past what you know to be true its really not that complicated-

Anonymous said...

MDHN09 is Buster reincarnated...

Oh yeah.... PREPARE!!

Anonymous said...

All Right MD.....So how do you prepare???...and this cattle mutilation shit is old..There was a rash of them back in the 70s near China Hat east of Newberry Crater...They found one mutilated steer up a fucking tree...Old dude in a trailer near the herds said he saw lights hovering over the herds on nights before the mutilated cattle were found......New a local LEO back then..Gov dudes told them to keep their fucking mouths shut about it.....So he got drunk and told me..
Here's music to greet the aliens with:..Portland's Jim Pepper, died of cirrosis back around

MDHN09 said...

RE: and this cattle mutilation shit is old.

yuu are right, so have ufo sightings and crop circles.. its the frequency that is changing in a big way, as well as complexity (crop circles are hard undeniable evidence of this)

we have evolved our technology to a point where it will be impossible for the world leaders to keep what has been known away from the main stream.. You Tube is a perfect example information is flowing quickly. Physics and Science are discovering. The public is in a place on distrust.

Now is the time........ AND ONLY NOW!


1. Stay Open. We have been told a lie

MDHN09 said...

attempt to comprehend

MDHN09 said...

RE:Here's music to greet the aliens with:..Portland's Jim Pepper, died of cirrosis back around

its all...NATIVE.... blessed be the life...native roots deep inside know the truth.
Blue Hopi Light Shinning Bright, go into the gap....


Anonymous said...

Suggest you guys who really think aliens are among us- dress up like Captain Kirk,or Mr. Spock, and go the the CONCOM comic book converntion.

You would fit right in.

Anonymous said...

Butter, can you post one more post? An empty one? So that we can continue conversation without the massive goodbye showing up forever?

MDHN09 said...

Perhaps, Butter has moved on to the new dimension...


MDHN09 said...


Even assuming 3D universe ( highly unlikely) calculations will show that intelligent life exists elsewhere in this galaxy- AND earth has OBVIOUSLY seen the presence of E.T's. This is simple math and science which happens to reaffirm ancient spiritual teachings- Go ahead and disrespect the ancient spiritual knowledge- your choice.

But the science, Math and Hard Evidence? Easier to have done, even ten years ago, but 2009?? WAKE THE FUCK UP!!!!!!!!


MDHN09 said...


Mankind is being enslaved by non-human forces who are technologically, psychically, and dimensionally superior to us. They consist of multiple factions, spanning multiple dimensions and locations in spacetime, all here to take a slice of the human pie. Their ultimate goal is to assimilate us into their fascist empire and parasitically exploit us for our biological, etheric, and physical resources. Through covert manipulation and hyperdimensional tricks that utilize time travel, they have secretly manipulated and exploited humanity in every way conceivable for tens of thousands of years. We are now seeing their plans overtly manifest with the abduction and hybrid breeding program, and their imminent portrayal as saviors to a human race gone mad with world conflict. If the world accepts them as saviors, individual freedom as we know it will become snuffed like a blown candle, leaving only darkness

Anonymous said...

Listen MDHN09, you forgot "PREPARE" last time. Now someone's gonna get killed, you fucking asshole. You'd better get your shit together now or we're all gonna die. Fucker.

Now PREPARE Goddamnit.

MDHN09 said...

Power Grids will be the first to go, should we come to that-

Americans on Earth- VERY EASY TO MANIPULATE....

move beyond the ego AND....


MDHN09 said...


Shrek had it right..

Anonymous said...

Paul: The First 24 are for you...
MDHN09: The Last one is all encephalitic , cock gobbling, corn hole banging numb nut...

Anonymous said...

And, just for old times sake...

Bewert needs to lube up his anushole with a little preparation HBM. Then some little Jewtah Cub Scout man-boy can give him a good hard reamin' and then pull out and shoot a load of man milk all over his smiling little face. We, we, we, we, all the way home.


Anonymous said...

Butter - your last good rant...and they are all good, and humorous, usually... posted 11/22. So, officially you are done.

So, PLEASE, for BB2's legacy and credibility sake, please filter that fucking MD!!!! It's ok. really. Don't worry, he (it?...what do you call a limp micro-dicked, fat, short alien?) won't blame you...he'll blame Klingons from YourLabia...or the person recording betamax while waving that red laser cat toy on carpet in his recent youtube "thanksgiving UFO siting in PA" link.

I thought white trash, calibangers, SE Asian nimphos, pregnant men, toothless meth heads pumping gas, liberal hypocrites were irritating...this guys is the #1 irritable-bowel-fuckhead ever to grace this board.

UNPACK, it's OK. Really. Have a few IPAs, buy a plasma HDTV, enjoy poverty with views.

Anonymous said...

Enjoy 300+ days of ice fog!...or 2 weeks of it, what's the difference when making statements on BB2?

Thanks homeboy for several years of your humor and views. I unloaded a house back in 06/07 based on BB2. I think we had lived in the house for 3 weeks when I first found BB2 and 6 weeks when we put the house on the market. We listed it at break even and it was gone. I got a free lesson in mortgage fraud and dealing with crappy contractors in a bloated market. Beats the alternative...thanks again!

Whine on...

MDHN09 said...

comming to get ya...

Angry bubble heads and cali banger bitches are one in the same- your gonna get fucked in the ass- the ignorance you carry is shocking. Worse then COBA 2007-

fucking simpson dumbfucks- go back to your bubble...


MDHN09 said...

Global fascism is real.The dollar will crash, food will be sparse. This we have known.

The energy that rules the planet is not of the planet.

Corruption and greed has controlled society - some of this blog understands this, but most do not understand...we are in a frequency WAR, fear will ALWAYS loose..

At the very top of our power structure we use a holographic structure. This can be proved.

NASA is watching crafts and you have no clue...No Clue.... Massive Tax dollars are being spent and lots evidence is unfolding . E.T's are arriving will be seen by all soon. The intension is not to spook the earth. Humans must wake up to what is real. The shift in consciousness is critical.

Americans have an enormous mess and must step down. It your destiny to learn what you have to offer this world..... NOT get killed by vaccines and war.

WAKE THE FUCK UP the real conspiracy is now unfolding.



MDHN09 said...

take a little time.....

Anonymous said...

A cold and ice foggy night...
Aliens teleport into MDHN09's methden...
Alien: "Wake up G-Bag! We are here to abduct you for Alien Sex experiments."
MDHN09: "Finally my dreams have come true. Let me throw some clothes on..."
Alien: "Wait...that's gross. You sleep naked. Oh man, did you shit yourself..."
MDHN09: 'Turns on the light'
Alien: "What the fuck is that little thing stuck where your penis should be?"
MDHN09: "Hey! My boyfriend says it is big enough for him" - although it did get stuck between his 2 front teeth the other day.
Alien: 'Snicker Snicker' "Look dude never mind. I think we'll pass. I think we'll head over to Beatie's place again...Chow!"
MDHN09: "NOOOOOOOOOOOOO! It is just like Prom night except it's not my Mom this time!"

Anonymous said...

Obama is speaking, justifying more war in the middle east.
This is no longer "Bush's War"-
it is now, clearly, "Ombama's War".
We who voted for you, are greatly disappointed, and will vote accordingly in Nov. 2010.

Anonymous said...

Wow. Obama just bought himself a war. WTF?

MDHN09 said...

Wow. Obama just bought himself a war. WTF?

Come on now.. WAKE UP! look at Obama's logo- A SUN RISING- "dawn of a new day"... something every EVER president has mentioned from the beginning.. Obama is a puppet, - there was no stopping this war and most bubble heads on this blog saw it coming 18 months ago.

A country 100 trillion in debt trying to lead the world, Some jack ass kills 4 cops.(after a 108 sentence released early... then rapes a 12 year old.. tells others he is gonna kill cops.. then he does......) this is not an easy fix.

We are destined for take over.


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

For a good laugh, read this:

Commercial vacancy rates stabilizing in Bend - a positive sign, some say

Look at the graph, and tell me where is the "positive sign", Costa?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Although Powderly is one of Costa's go-to guys when he needs sunshine blown up his skirt...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

All I can see in that chart is Family-Wage jobs have gone away (20% office vacancy), and poverty-wage jobs are stabilizing (retail).

Anonymous said...

Many retail stores in Bend will stagger through the holidays, hoping for a "Hail Mary" recovery.
It will not happen. In Jan., the "Going out of Business" signs will sprout like dandelions after a spring rain.

Anonymous said...

I always assume the opposite when I read a Bull story. To me, this reads..."We are fuckin desperate over here in the commercial RE section. Let's see if we can throw out a net and land a sucker or two".

LavaBear said...

>>>Look at the graph, and tell me where is the "positive sign"

I'd say buy the dip on that one. It looks bullish to me.

blackdog said...

"Look at the graph, and tell me where is the "positive sign", Costa?"

They see one tiny dip in the curve and declare that vacancy rates are "stabilizing." If so they're stabilizing at an awfully high level.

BTW is everybody enjoying our first "inversion" of the 2009-2010 winter? I guess this still counts as a "day of sunshine" because it's sunny on the top of Mt. Bachelor.

Anonymous said...

November is gone...

Anyone have the stats?

Anonymous said...

"I always assume the opposite when I read a Bull story."

Yeah, me too. The reason they bother saying anything about the situation is to try to overcome what people know and suspect. It's a typical desperation response.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

In Jan., the "Going out of Business" signs will sprout like dandelions after a spring rain.

Speaking of which, I saw the Grand Opening spread in CBN of the successor to Mountain Comfort... forgot the name.

Surprise, surprise... Dee Dee Keith was there... a phoenix rising from her own ashes?

"Going out of business" is The New Black for businesses around here.

I seem to recall Mark Hemstreet somehow got this trend rolling a few years back, when he put a large number of Shilo Inn's into BK... but somehow retained ownership, and came back bigger & better than ever...

Anonymous said...

Unemployment is not going to decline much in the next decade.
With 1,500,000 temporary workers and legal immigrants entering the U.S. every year, unemployment numbers are going to stay high, for a very,very, long time.
I am surprised that no one has proposed a temporary freeze on immigration, until the economy recovers.

Quimby said...

>> "Going out of business" is The New Black for businesses around here.

>> I seem to recall Mark Hemstreet somehow got this trend rolling a few years back, when he put a large number of Shilo Inn's into BK... but somehow retained ownership, and came back bigger & better than ever...

It's called when the chips aren't in your favor, screwing your creditors and starting over. It's just business....or is it? Seems like there is no sting or scourge in bankruptcy any more.

Woman, have you no shame?

Anonymous said...

"I am surprised that no one has proposed a temporary freeze on immigration, until the economy recovers."

I'm not surprised a bit. That's what happens in a fascist nation. The corporations LIKE the cheap labor, and they own the government.

MDHN09 said...

I'm not surprised a bit. That's what happens in a fascist nation. The corporations LIKE the cheap labor, and they own the government.

Now ask yourself who is controlling the cooperations?

This is MUCH bigger then most realize and it is not rocket science to start connecting the dots.

PREPARE.. if you know how

Anonymous said...

It's called when the chips aren't in your favor, screwing your creditors and starting over. It's just business....or is it? Seems like there is no sting or scourge in bankruptcy any more.

It's a regular part of doing business for Trump...but if you stiff me here in Central Oregon, I don't forget. There are very few degrees of separation here in Central Oregon...word spreads fast that you are a douche.

There should be a law that prohibits a business owner from declaring BK and opening up a new business within months.

Anonymous said...

Via Roubini:

The Housing Crisis and Wall Street Shame

Robert Reich | Nov 30, 2009

One out of four homeowners is now under water, owing more on their homes than the homes are worth. Why? The biggest single factor behind the housing crisis is rising unemployment. According to the latest ABC-Washington Post poll, one out of every three Americans has either lost their job or lives in a household with someone who has lost a job. Today it takes two and sometimes three incomes to buy the groceries and pay the mortgage or the rent. So if one of those incomes is gone, a homeowner can't make the payment.

The scourge of unemployment is splitting America into three groups: (1) the third just mentioned, whose households are in danger of losing their homes and whose kids are surviving on food stamps (that's up to one in four children in America today); (2) the vast majority of Americans who are managing but worried about keeping their jobs and homes; and (3) a small number who are taking home even more winnings than they did in the boom year 2007.

Prominent among category (3) are Wall Street bankers, many of whom are now concluding their most profitable year ever. Goldman Sachs is so flush it's preparing to give out bonuses in a few weeks totaling $17 billion. That will mean eight-figure compensation packages for lots of Goldman executives and traders. JPMorgan Chase is rumored to have a bonus pool of around $5 billion. The three other major Wall Street banks are ratcheting up their compensation packages so their "talent" won't be poached by Goldman or JPMorgan.

Wall Street is booming again in large part because the rest of America -- categories (1) and (2), above -- bailed it out to the tune of $700 billion last year. The Street has repaid some of that but, according to the bailout program's inspector general, much of it is gone forever. For example, the taxpayer money that bailed out giant insurer AIG went directly through AIG to its "counterparties" like Goldman Sachs -- to whom Tim Geithner, according to the inspector general, gave away the store. As Goldman Sachs prepares to dole out some $17 billion to its executives and traders, it's worth noting that Goldman received $13 billion a year ago from the rest of us via AIG and Geithner, no strings attached.

Which brings us back to homeowners who are falling further behind. The $75 billion federal program designed to bribe banks to modify mortgages has been a bust. No one knows the exact number of mortgages that have been modified (that will be reported next month) but housing experts I've talked with say it's a tiny fraction of the number of homeowners in trouble. Seems that the big banks can't be bothered. "Some of the firms ought to be embarrassed," Michael Barr, the assistant Treasury secretary for financial institutions told the New York Times...

Anonymous said...

...Barr says the government will try to use shame as a corrective, publicly naming institutions that have moved too slowly. But the banks have done almost nothing to date. "We've made dramatic improvements, and we continue to try to get better," says a spokesman for JPMorgan Chase, but as a practical matter JPMorgan has done squat.

Shame? If we've learned anything over the last year, it's that Wall Street has none. Ten months ago Wall Street lobbyists beat back a proposal to give bankruptcy judges the right to amend mortgages in order to pressure lenders to reduce principle owed, just like Wall Street lobbyists are now beating back tough regulations to prevent the Street from causing another meltdown.

Shame? For Wall Street, it all comes down to PR, at minimal cost. Goldman Sachs, attempting to preempt a firestorm of public outrage when it dispenses its $17 billion of bonuses, is setting up a crudely conceived $500 million PR program to help Main Street.

Shame won't work. Only political muscle and courage will. Congress and the Obama administration should give homeowners the right to go to a bankruptcy judge and have their mortgages modified.

And while they're at it, resurrect the Glass-Steagall Act that used to separate investment from commercial banking, so Wall Street can't continue to use other people's money to gamble.

Finally, before Goldman hands out $17 billion in bonuses, claw back the $13 billion Goldman took from AIG and the rest of us and add it to the pool of money going for mortgage relief.


What is the end result when the transfer of wealth becomes so blatant?

MDHN09 said...

What is the end result when the transfer of wealth becomes so blatant?



Tim said...

Why would someone even use the word "shame" when dealing with these banks? The reason banks had any shame at all in the early 1900s was that they were FOUNDED and OWNED by powerful men with their NAMES on the banks. Those men could dictate what the bank did overnight without fear of shareholder lawsuits.

Now they are just publicly owned companies run temporarily by powerful men who move on to another job when their bank goes under.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, right. Powerful Andrew Girlicker and Dr. Carl Berg.

Anonymous said...

The city of Long Beach pays it's firefighters $175,000. a year in salary and benefits.
Maybe paying a banker $4,000,000. a year is not out of line.

Anonymous said...



Ok jackass what have you done with the real buster.

MDHN09 said...

Buster was an illusion, just like your bank account and sexual frustration.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

A very good piece in the Oregonian today on Warm Springs & their 63% unemployment:

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

CACB took a 9% beating Fri... Bear Hug approaching.

MDHN09 said...

A resource based economy is the only way. Technology will win. Higher intelligence is here-


MDHN09 said...

As the burst bubble is known to be beyond broke.. physical frequency changes WILL MOVE QUICKLY.

this is not difficult...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Tim Duy, economist extraordinaire, finally figures it out:

Index reflects a region still reeling
‘We fell into a very deep hole, and it's going to take a long time to pull out of that'

Duy said Central Oregon is potentially faced with the prospect of a weak recovery as it recalibrates its economy, one that is less dependent on housing. High unemployment rates could continue as a result, he said.

The region will likely find new industries or economic sectors on which to base its growth, perhaps information technology or health care. But Duy cautions that despite the region's attractiveness, any notion that the region can return to its pre-bubble growth is misplaced.

“To re-create the same kind of economic environment seen in the middle of this decade requires a set of conditions that I don't think are going to return, and consequently, you can't base your identity and plan your economy off of that dynamic,” Duy said. “It's likely gone and not going to come back, so you have to get back to how you see the economy transition to some other dynamic, and take a different view of what kind of economy can we support.

“(Central Oregon) has gone through this massive psychological blow, and the challenge is to reconnect people's reality with expectations,” Duy said. “For a town in the middle of nowhere with no transportation hubs, it's done remarkably well ... but the growth path of this decade was not sustainable.”

And remember: PREPARE!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

But Duy cautions that despite the region's attractiveness, any notion that the region can return to its pre-bubble growth is misplaced.

Ingrain that in your brain Costa!

Attractiveness == Dog Shit

Uniqueness? It's bullshit, and we don't have it anyway.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Duy's tune has changed since Summer 2007:

If history proves a guide, housing slump won’t last

The traditional underlying drivers of the local housing market are likely still there, University of Oregon economist Tim Duy said Thursday. Newcomers are still attracted to Central Oregon’s natural beauty and, even at today’s prices, average housing prices here remain lower than they are in neighboring California and in other high-priced regions along the nation’s gold coasts.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

More predictions from Duy, circa Dec 2007:

Economy faces test from housing slide
Tourism activity, new businesses remain stable

“The housing market is just a mess,” Duy said. “I’ve been saying for a while that these are the two toughest quarters — the fourth quarter 2007 and the first quarter of 2008 — we have to get through without any other major negative shock (to the market).”

If Central Oregon’s economy can weather the housing storm through next year, Duy thinks the region will avoid a recession. A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of declines in gross domestic product, Duy said, adding that a more subjective definition is a broad-based downturn in activity experienced by multiple sectors and consistent with declining employment.

“I’m hoping that in the second to third quarter next year, (the housing market) will stabilize,” Duy said. “A turnaround has been harder to predict and talk about. Talking to mortgage brokers, their business is fundamentally changed because of the lack of access to capital — they just can’t make the types of mortgages they’ve made before and I think the financing just is not going to be there next year.”

The housing market has a limited spillover to other sectors of the economy, Duy said, although employment growth has slowed and retail activity is down.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I can sum up Tim Duy as follows:

If nothing bad ever happens again, things will be just fine. Otherwise, I have no idea what will happen.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

“I’m hoping that in the second to third quarter next year, (the housing market) will stabilize,” Duy said.

What sort of economist says this?

You "hope"?

blackdog said...

"What sort of economist says this? You "hope"?"

Only a confirmed idiot would say "I know."

Anonymous said...

Last Stats for BB2:

Nov 09 SFR solds were 175 at $220k median price and pp sf median was $113. Nearly the same as Oct 09. The pending and contingent prices are $195k and $189k repectively.
239 Nods, seems they are dropping off for now from over 300 a month.

It's been real boyz! Cheers.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

More HILARIOUS Dec 2007 quotes from COSTA (via Anna Sowa):

Economy faces test from housing slide

Central Oregon’s economy continues to slow, but is relatively resilient despite a persistent, intensifying downturn in residential housing, according to a quarterly measure of the region’s economy.

At the time this was written, Cent OR unemployment was 5.0% adjusted, 6.1% unadjusted.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Sorry, 5.9% adjusted...

Anonymous said...

Many sad stories in this economy.
A small church in New England is selling it's only valuable asset, a Tiffany window in the church, in order to pay for heat.
An animal rescue organization near Salem, Lighthouse Farm Sanctuary, in nearly broke, and may have to shut down.
These are terrible times for so many.

MDHN09 said...

Zeitgeist Addendum- (for those that have not seen WATCH THIS, its not New Age Crap or Aliens.) Some of you may need to skip forward to 5 min mark to get to "how money works" quickly, At the very least there is good BASIC INFO and well directed----

Some bubble heads have been preaching same thing about the o mighty dollar,

humans are waking up to the truth


blackdog said...

"Central Oregon’s economy continues to slow, but is relatively resilient"

Don'tcha love the weasel word "relatively"? A good copy editor would ask the reporter: "What do you mean by 'relatively'? Relative to what?" If the reporter didn't have a good answer the editor would take the sentence or phrase out.

BTW how are we all enjoying these "snow flurries" The Bull predicted? This is why it's bogus to promote this area as a retirement haven. People don't want to put up with this shit in their 60s, 70s and 80s.

The only people for whom it makes sense to retire here are (a) those rich enough to afford a second home in a warmer place for the winter or (b) those who just want a cheap place to live and are content to end their days in a single-wide in LaPine.

Anonymous said...

Epic post.

I've enjoyed this blog since the early days.

I hope on ocassion, as we experience seminal events, you will opine.

You blend economics, social behavior, and philosophy, with crude humor. I like it.

Thanks for everything.

David in AZ

Anonymous said...

Seeking Christmas cottage or lot within 1/2 mile from Drake Park

Date: 2009-12-06, 9:58AM PST
Reply to:

I'll purchase "as is and with all faults" for the right home & location within 1/2 mile of Drake Park footbridge. I'll can pay back taxes & closing cost if needed. Condition not important, prefer distressed property. Can close immediately. Local long time Bend resident, private party.

Please call: 419-4403


Looks like the same guy that posted the Best Craiglist Post Ever:

$599000 Worst house in Bend
Reply to:
Date: 2007-12-30, 7:51AM PST

I'm completely embarrassed. I never realized how undesirable our home is. I apologize to anyone that's visited it. We only wish our friends would have told us just how miserable of a place it really is. PRESS RELEASE: The home is available under market price @ $599,000 for immediate sale. 3 bedroom , 2.5 bath, 2071 square feet. Builders own personal home. Built in 2006. This is a great opportunity to own a unique home in one of the most desirable areas on Bend's westside. It's located within a few blocks of everything downtown has to offer,Newport Market, Nancy P's Bakery,Deschutes River,Drake Park, Deschutes Brewery.

I'll consider trades of value for partial or all of the asking price & discount for a cash/clean deal.

Anonymous said...

Aaah yes, Paul Mandel. Dipshit.

We all knew the gig was up when he put that house on the market for $1.25M - for a house on Federal St. He ended up selling it in September 08 for $500k. The buyer paid too much.

Kind of like Buster's great deal in that area..."dude, you over paid." "but it had a 1.25m ASK price and I got it for $500k. That's a FUCKING DEAL."

Anonymous said...

Re: Tim Duy, economist extraordinaire, finally figures it out:

Index reflects a region still reeling
‘We fell into a very deep hole, and it's going to take a long time to pull out of that'


The Bully really printed that, on the public site. Change has happened.

Costa may have finally accepted the last stage of grief-Acceptance.

That is actually a pretty good thing for you guys.

And you likely had a significant hand in it, Butter.

Anonymous said...

"Lee said that in the 1970s, two out of three jobs in the region were related to wood products. That number has dropped to one in three in recent years, he said."


Does Roger even know what the fuck he is talking about?

Anonymous said...

Re: "But Lee suggested that a wholly diversified economy immune to natural economic cycles is elusive.

“You may never get that diversification because industries change and technologies change ... (so) it's about diversifying in enough different sectors and cycles that hopefully you create a more durable economy,” he said."


A real Economic Developer would say something like "Diversification is dependent on the benefits from the region, be they transportation, quality of life, education institutions, etc. Versus how those factors match up with the industries which will grow in the near future.

Can we be a regional healthcare center? A regional education center?

Can we attract educated professionals in the growing green energy industries? In the growing health information technologies?

That is where our focus should lie. As should our higher education focus."


Yeah, they fucking change. If you had a clue, you would talk about which ones are ascendant.

Anonymous said...

Somebody with too much time on their hands might want to try this to promote Bend:

aka "Introducing the Google Model Your Town Competition"

Anonymous said...

The San Francisco Chronicle tell us all about a family to relocated to Bend:

"My wife and I love it here," he wrote of Bend, a central Oregon city with a population of about 82,000. "It's a lot cheaper than the Bay Area, great for kids (no need for private schools for sure), great restaurants, and it's an outdoor mecca."

Before their move, Lynch, 39, was the CFO at two biotech startups while his wife, Jenny, worked as a pharmaceutical research scientist. She had grown up in Bend, and when their thoughts turned to raising a family, the Oregon town kept coming up in their discussions.

"Bend was big enough to have good restaurants, cultural happenings and activities," Lynch says, "yet it was small enough that we could imagine raising our family in a place where we could become part of the fabric of the community."

"One night at dinner," he remembers, "I said to my wife, 'Let's just get up and move to Bend.'"

It was the first time he had deemphasized his career when making a major life decision: "We first asked, 'Where do we want to be? We'll figure out the career thing second.'"

When they arrived in Oregon, Lynch remembers feeling the pleasures of the place immediately. "I felt like I was on vacation," he says. "It was winter time, and the snow was blanketing our deck ... which overlooks the Deschutes River. There are waterfalls not far away, and there's was a nice, white-noise sound in the evening."

That peaceful, easy feeling still seems to permeate his life.

"The basics of day-to-day life are a lot more convenient in a smaller community," he says, "whether it's going to the store or visiting friends. Sometimes we'll see family members two or three times on a weekend. In the city you can't do that."

Lynch dealt with the challenges of the smaller (and recently struggling) local economy by bringing his own work to Bend: He started a small biotech investment fund there (with a San Francisco-based partner), and says his work pace slowed considerably when he left the Bay Area. Jenny started a home-based, online skincare products business. The couple have two children, Ethan, two, and Piper, one.

"I probably worked 10 to 12 hours a day in San Francisco," Lynch says. "Now it's probably closer to 6 to 8. But I do a broader range of things."

Like playing the French horn in the local symphony, for example. He was a serious musician through college, but he says "that aspect of my life was kind of shut down when I was in career mode for 15 years ... One of the first things I did (when we moved to Bend) was I got my horn back out."

Lest you assume Lynch has become some kind of pastoral, horn-toting loafer, he points out that you can't fully take the city out of the man. "I miss the energy and diversity of San Francisco," he says.

And while he doesn't express any major regrets about his move, he does think about the career compromise it may have entailed. "I'm still as ambitious as I've always been," he says. "I'm just interested in making different trade-offs. I'm still interested in advancing my career ... but I'm willing to work with maybe somewhat of a handicap by not being in a major (urban) hub."

Anonymous said...

"Lest you assume Lynch has become some kind of pastoral, horn-toting loafer..."

Hey, I'm two out of three....

MDHN09 said...
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MDHN09 said...
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MDHN09 said...

the real story behind angry bubble heads and cali banger bitches

THE TIME IS NOW.. the invitation is here

Anonymous said...

"the real story behind angry..."

Dude stop posting youtube links. My internet is too slow. If you have something to say, then say it in your own words. Please.

Anonymous said...

Oh, he's got something to say, alright. It's fucking...


Anonymous said...

Dude stop posting youtube links

Dude, post up something relevant to this blog or go the fuck away. You've made your stupid point, we're over it.

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