Sunday, December 14, 2008

Failure Nation

It's really sort of amazing what is happening in this country today.

We've had a credit-fueled boom of consumerism these past 30 years or so. Just borrowing from the future to enjoy today. Not a horrible thing, until it goes overboard, which it did.

So to fuel the boom, we've built out excess capacity. An enormous amount. Just a ridiculous amount in consumer banking, and Bend is exactly where it should be in this regard, Far Behind The Times. People are still building banks in Bend. They're still building Everything in Bend.

This is exactly what the auto bailout is about: Taxpayer subsidizing of Excess Capacity. Keep It Alive, Keep It Going.

We don't need it, and No One Can Afford The Products, The Horrible Management, or the Incredible Union Greed, but KEEP IT ALIVE, No Matter What.

We, as taxpayers, are actually being force-fed failure-laden bailouts. We will soon bailout everything. Airlines are probably next. The only thing that won't get bailed out will be companies & industries that don't WANT it.

So what is the upshot? We are expending BILLIONS, probably trillions, to keep excess capacity alive & well. Producing millions of cars we cannot afford and DO NOT WANT. Trillions are being thrown into bank coffers to get us to borrow, but strangely, nobody is.

When it comes down to it, we borrowed to the hilt from the future, and now we can't repay. Everybody borrowed. GM borrowed to build plants. Banks, ironically, borrowed to buy mortgages, and were enriched per transaction. Individuals borrowed and bought the only asset that possibly could have absorbed this much lending capacity, homes, by the millions.

We have too much of almost everything, and we can't make the payments to keep it. Can't pay it off. So "we" have gone to the government & asked for trillions. Well, the banks are getting it. GM, Ford & Chrysler are getting it. Defaulting borrowers are "trying" to get it via Fannie & Freddie's moratorium on foreclosures.

In other words, Idiots Are Getting Rich and The Responsible & Prudent Are Funding It. Nice.

So what's going to happen? Well, I suppose in the ordinary scheme of things, if you are demanding quantity X of something, and producers are putting out 2X, prices will fall. Right? But falling prices brings on failure, which we are of course, vigorously trying to avoid. So we Have To keep prices artificially high.

So US Taxpayers are in the uncomfortable position of not just subsidizing current production that we do not want & can't afford, but owing well over $10 TRILLION dollars in future earnings to pay off government debts as well. And we will somehow have to keep prices HIGH to avoid failure.

So our money is simply funneled to bank presidents. To union bosses. To government bureaucrats. To every FAILURE in this country.

The More succesful you are, the MORE You Are Penalized. The LESS successful you are, the MORE You Are Rewarded.

And THE BIGGEST FAILURES are actually holding out for the Most:

‘UAW bailout’

It is a mistake to use part of the $700-billion rescue package to reward high-tax, non-right-to-work states such as Michigan, says Peter Flaherty, President of the National Legal and Policy Center (NLPC).

“The automaker bailout is actually a UAW bailout,” Flaherty said. “The union will not allow companies to deploy capital in ways that the market would dictate, such as closing plants and layoffs.”

Under Frank’s legislation, car companies receiving bailout money would face tougher restrictions on executive pay and dividends to their shareholders, the A.P. reported.

NLPC says the UAW wants additional taxpayer money to enrich health and retirement plans it controls. Indeed, UAW President Ron Gettelfinger has urged Congress to act immediately to provide a separate, additional $25 billion in loans so auto companies can meet their health care obligations to more than 780,000 retirees and dependents.

Awesome. The UAW will, HOPEFULLY, finally kill The Golden Goose. They are the 600lb suckerfish on the 20lb gristle-laden near-death automakers ass. I HOPE TO GOD they kill it. Because that is truly what the auto-bailout is: UAW payoff. We are paying big fat tubs of shit $90/hr to do NOTHING. Heard of JOB BANKS?

UAW is The Most Corrupt Bunch Of Greedy Fucks On Earth. Followed By Auto CEO's. There are actually thousands of non-union auto-workers, and extended industry workers, several of whom I Know, who think these two groups deserve each other, and deserve extinction. Even though it would probably threaten their own job. MOST of lower Michigan OPPOSES the bailouts.

What the hell is going to happen? We're paying TRILLIONS to keep alive capacity, predominantly Credit Capacity, that No One Can Pay For Anymore. Even 800FICO's aren't getting money.

Well, I can see a few things happening: Corporate ROI going to 0% or below. We are simply funneling money into products no one wants. Profit is simply (Unit Volume X Price) - Costs. And we are witnessing imploding volumes and prices, while Costs are being kept as high as they ever were. So I see permanent lowering of ROI as long as the Bailout Regime holds.

FAILURE Must Be Be Allowed To Take It's Course.

We are becoming Socialists Speculators. Our Government, is actually putting us into the auto and banking industries via EQUITY holdings. Believe me, they will SOON have us in the housing market. The government will soon start taking over HUGE housing developments. It'll happen.

Innovation Lost. Failure is a CLEANSING PROCESS. Failure MUST happen, or necrosis sets in. We are subsidizing FAILURE, and keeping alive the Dead.

War. We, or someone else, will be at WAR soon.

In China, anger rises as economy falls
The crisis in global capitalism has spelled trouble for the Chinese Communist Party, confronted by public unrest as factories shed workers and investments collapse.

By Barbara Demick

December 12, 2008

Reporting from Beijing — The signs of discontent are small but unnerving in an authoritarian country where public demonstrations are not permitted.

Laid-off toy company workers smash windows and computers and overturn police cars in Guangdong province. Employees of a liquor company in Harbin travel to their company's Beijing headquarters to demand back wages. Taxi drivers, as many as 20,000 of them, scuffle with police in protests that have spread into seven provinces.

Even the police have gotten into the act. Auxiliary officers surrounded a Communist Party office last week in Hunan province to demand higher wages, said the Hong Kong-based Information Center for Human Rights and Democracy.

As China's economy hits the skids, such protests have been sporadic and usually involved fewer than 100 people. But in recent weeks, they have cropped up across the country like brush fires.

"Definitely, this is the most serious problem we have seen since 1989," said Zhou Xiaozheng, a professor of sociology at People's University in Beijing. "You have millions of college students who can't find jobs. . . . You have migrant workers who have lost their jobs at factories and don't have land to go back to."

It is counterintuitive that a global financial crisis that started with the excesses of Wall Street should be undermining the Chinese Communist Party. But academics such as Zhou believe that the economic crisis could present the leadership with its biggest political challenge since the student protests at Tiananmen Square nearly two decades ago.

To a large extent, China's fiscal problems pale next to those of the United States. The unemployment rate is not expected to top 4.5%, compared with the current 6.5% in the U.S. Although the World Bank recently slashed China's growth forecast for next year to 7.5% from more than 9%, even the lower figure keeps it at the top of the pack.

The problem is that ordinary growth might not be enough for a system that's been sustained by double-digit gains over the last five years. New York University economist Nouriel Roubini predicted last month in a widely quoted newsletter that without 9% to 10% growth, China is headed for a "hard landing."

Security in growth

It is the conventional wisdom that Communist Party rule has survived into the 21st century because of the nation's extraordinary economic growth. China watchers often speak of an implicit bargain between the people and the party: Give up demands for democracy and free speech and we'll make you rich.

"I think the leaders are scared stiff," said Susan Shirk, a professor at UC San Diego. "Certainly the Chinese Communist Party leadership believes there is a connection between economic growth, social stability and the survival of one-party rule."

Even members of the intelligentsia have become more vocal, demanding political change in a petition released this week that was modeled after the 1977 one that challenged the Soviet Union's domination of Czechoslovakia. "In the world, authoritarian systems are approaching the dusk of their endings," says the document, signed by more than 300 prominent people.

What makes the government especially vulnerable is that the people hurting financially have few legitimate outlets to air grievances. Unable to vote out their leaders, strike or collect compensation from the courts, they protest. And when the police wade in, things can quickly turn violent.

That's what happened Nov. 25 after 1,000 workers were laid off from the Kai Da toy factory in Dongguan, a southeastern city often called the real-life Santa's workshop because of the toys manufactured there.

As one former worker, a 36-year-old mechanic who agreed to be quoted by his surname, Zhong, describes it: A group of workers was in discussions with management about termination pay when a dispute broke out. "We saw the police beating five workers with sticks, several of them unconscious. . . . Then many workers rushed out and surrounded them. Later there were thousands of people there. They smashed police cars, doors and computers."

The economic downturn is hitting hardest in places like Dongguan, where factories once churned out toys, shoes and clothing to satisfy the seemingly insatiable demand of American consumers. Now demand has plunged because of the U.S. recession and the scandals over tainted foods and dangerous toys produced in China.

The Chinese government reported Wednesday that last month, for the first time in seven years, exports declined. In the toy industry alone, figures from the General Administration of Customs showed that half of the 3,631 companies had gone under this year.

Almost all of the workers who are losing their jobs are migrants who may not have any place to return to.

Zhong and his wife, who is seven months pregnant, came from an area in Sichuan province that suffered heavy damage during the May earthquake. "We are just wandering around now looking for work," Zhong said.

Fears of instability

This floating population of the unemployed and desperate is one of the government's nightmares.

"The redistribution of wealth through theft and robbery could dramatically increase, and menaces to social stability will grow," Zhou Tianyong, an economist for a government think tank, said in an editorial last week in the China Economic Times.

But it is not only the migrants who can turn unruly.

Young professionals trashed the showroom of a real estate complex called Glamorous City in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, after learning that the developer was offering a 25% discount to prospective buyers of units they had paid full price for.

Middle-class Chinese are relative novices when it comes to investing, unaccustomed to the risks of real estate or the stock market -- and quick to blame the government when what they thought could only go up instead goes down.

The anger was palpable at a Beijing stock brokerage where investors sat on a row of orange plastic chairs, sipping tea from jars they'd brought from home and watching the latest indignities flashing on the electronic board of stock prices.

" Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao did nothing to help," snapped one man in a voice that cut through the background clatter and made the others -- unaccustomed to hearing gripes against China's president and premier spoken so loudly -- turn around to hush him. ("Don't tell the foreigner too much about what's happening in China," hissed a woman sitting behind him.)

The 53-year-old man, who gave his name as Lao Yang, or "old Yang," agreed to lower his voice and the conversation continued. He lost seven years' worth of savings from his job at a machine components factory, which is now closed.

Others with him shared his fury -- retired factory workers, homemakers, a former post office clerk, all had lost large portions of their savings playing the stock market and felt the government had betrayed the laobaixing, the common people, by not protecting them.

"Some people lost everything in the stock market. They sold their homes and borrowed money," said Xiong Huanyong, 66, a retired post office worker. "They think there should have been more regulations."

A basic structural problem in the Chinese economy is that wages and living standards have not kept pace with the extraordinary growth. As a result, consumers aren't prosperous enough to pick up the slack and keep the economy rolling in the face of reduced demand from the United States and Europe.

The Chinese government has lowered interest rates several times, and last month announced a $586-billion stimulus package. More moves are predicted, but economists doubt their effectiveness.

"The government's economic policy is still geared to producing high growth figures, but not to producing jobs or raising people's disposable income," said Mao Yushi, a prominent Chinese economist.

Shirk, of UCSD, believes that protests will accelerate as workers realize such actions can help them get what they want. For example, the laid-off workers at Kai Da received severance of about $900 each after their protest.

But Shirk thinks the government will be able to manage the crisis as long as protests remain localized and the nation's leadership remains united.

"They learned their lesson from the Tiananmen period," she said. "As long as they can prevent public splits, throw the ringleaders of the protests in jail, blame the problems on local officials, they can probably hang together."

Something's going to give in Asia. All has been well for the past 20-30 years, even with Tiananmen, because the Commies Have Delivered. But no more. There's about 1.4 billion pissed off motherfuckers over there, and not nearly enough thugs to hold them off. That country is a powder-keg.

China, India, Pakistan. That area is going to explode. Everyone of those fuckers has NUKES. And don't forget RUSSIA, who will do ALL IN THEIR POWER to foment anti-American sentiment. Or really, PRO-OIL sentiment.

The Bursting Bubble now goes FAR beyond American Housing. RUSSIAN OIL is collapsing. Chinese production capacity is imploding. Pakkie's are terrorizing India. And India is RICH & THEY GOT NUKES. There's going to be a FUCKING WAR.

Plan Folks. Plan. This crazy fucking blog has been beating the drums for TWO YEARS. "BEANS, BULLETS, BOOZE, BULLION". DO NOT for a second think that can't happen. Don't think for 1 second you can't be relegated to GROWING YOUR OWN FOOD. And SHOOTING YOUR FUCKING NEIGHBOR TO KEEP THEM FROM TAKING YOUR SHIT. EVEN WHILE YOU ARE STEALING THEIR SHIT!

The recent local rash of shootings, robberies, and assaults is NOT a statistical oddity. People are getting desperate. Unemployment EXPLODED in Deschutes County over the past year. And it's going to get far, FAR worse. This fucking place will be a war zone before it's over. Instead of reading about someone getting shot, YOU'LL KNOW SOMEONE who Got Shot.

So what's the solution to the Armaggedon Scenario? Actually Armeggedon IS THE SOLUTION. Got too many factories? Too much productive capacity? Too many unemployed?

There's One Very Effective Solution: WAR.

War tears shit up, right quick. War kills motherfuckers who would otherwise be robbing you. War will put people back in Chinese, Indian, and Pakkie factories. At least until they are nuked.

We are going to war soon. What do the RICH WORRY ABOUT? That's right, KEEPING WHAT THEY GOT. And India & China have watched the money pile up over the past few decades, and that shit is threatened now. Don't underestimate the retaliation of a well-funded country.

And what do WE do? Well, if we DO NOT side with China, we're fucking doomed. We OWE THEM $1 TRILLION, at least. In many respects, China runs this 2 bit shithole already. Who will they go after? India? Japan? Fuck, who knows. But it'll be US against THEM. And whoever THEM is, they have been our "Allies" for a long time.

Some whacked shit is going to happen. Government-owned EVERYTHING. Including your house, maybe. A tax-rate hike is coming that'll probably kill another 10-20% of this countries small businesses. And not just Federal. All the way down the line.

Hunker down, Folks. The Big One is coming. War. Depression. Suicide. Remember your 4 B's. Stock Up And Lock Down.

This is Going To Get So Much Worse Than You Thought Possible.

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IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Just checked RealtyTrac.com for Oregon, and it looks like Deshutes Counties foreclosure rate has almost doubled in the past few months. And of course, it's far & away the highest in the state.

Amazingly, places like Malhuer & Harney counties are almost untouched. Our foreclosure rate is around 40X higher than these places. Never in the boom, never in the bust, I guess.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And The Greatest Tax Hike In History will not be Obama-nator's fault. It'll be Bush's. And Greenspan's. And even Clinton's. (This fucking mess has it's roots in the Tech Boom of the late 90's... so yes, HBM... Clinton.)

But it's coming. Costs a lot of money to become Imperial Socialists. Gotta take over a lot of productive capacity.

Ohhhh geez. We're so fucked.

Anonymous said...

http://michelleobamasuicidewatch.blogspot.com/

Enough said.

Anonymous said...

MORE BUSH THAN BUSH, WHO WOULD HAVE GUESSED??

Strangling Dissent, Muzzling Whistleblowers

by Dr. Dennis Loo

Two news/story items came across my desk in the last couple of days that share something vital in common even though they look on the surface like opposites. The first concerns a Washington Post Op-Ed by Matt Miller, Senior Fellow with the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank, and ex-Clinton OMB official. The second is news about universities like Penn State and Temple that are encouraging students to lodge complaints against their professors for being “one-sided” or bringing up material not “germane” to the course.

In the Post Op-Ed, Miller calls for the Obama administration to ban any “kiss and tell” books from White House insiders, making serving in the administration the equivalent of omertà, the mafia’s code of silence, for five years after leaving the administration.

The universities in question are inviting, indeed, proudly institutionalizing, student complaints against the universities’ principal employees and the lifeblood of the university, the faculty.

So on the one side we have an attempt to silence and on the other an attempt to get people to speak up.

These two items imperil what still remains of openness in American society. First, some details.

Writes Miller in his Post piece entitled “A Prenup for the West Wing:”

“Barack Obama should simply require key advisers and officials to sign a binding contract of confidentiality as a condition of employment. Aides should pledge not to disclose anything they see until, say, five years after their boss leaves office.”

He goes on to state:

“[T]his [is not] the same as post-White House advocacy urging an administration to change policy direction -- something that I and other White House alums have done, and which has in some cases made sitting officials unhappy. In addition, there are rare but legitimate acts of conscience by officials that led them to resign and speak out (something that did not occur in McLellan's [sic] case, which rendered his appeals to duty unpersuasive).

“No, when top presidential aides [he names George Stephanopoulos or Scott McClellan specifically] kiss and tell, it's uniquely troubling.”

I can appreciate Miller’s disdain for those who have cashed in and his sentiment that the high officials should have resigned and spoken out instead of waiting, for if they had spoken out at the time it much more likely would have made a difference. Scott McClellan’s revelations of the Bush White House manipulating intelligence to justify the illegal war on Iraq would have been much more useful if he’d spoken out when he was being instructed to lie by the White House. Over a million lives wasted that have resulted from our invasion could have been saved.

Better late than never. I am glad that McClellan finally spoke up. It is a good thing, not a bad thing, that his conscience bothered him.

It’s good, not bad, that McClellan revealed dirty secrets, secrets that were no secret to those of us who were saying it all along in the anti-war movement. But the fact that an insider revealed it carries a great deal of weight. It makes this country’s leaders’ deceit all the harder for their ardent defenders to refute and dismiss as the ravings of malcontents. I don’t care whether McClellan made a bundle of money for doing it. I don’t even care what his motives are as long as he’s telling the truth. I’d happily trade the money he made for the hundreds of billions spent on this immoral and unjust war.

As for Stephanopoulos, Miller’s right, the man’s clearly his own biggest fan. But just because he thinks the world revolves him is no reason to lower a wall of secrecy around the White House even thicker than what already exists. Miller’s advocating promised silence as a condition for serving in the White House extends the trend that Glenn Greenwald correctly decries as the increasing non-accountability surrounding the executive branch (and the government more generally).

As Barbara Bowley reveals at length in her chapter “The Campaign for Unfettered Power: Executive Supremacy, Secrecy and Surveillance “ in my book, Impeach the President: the Case Against Bush and Cheney:

In May 2006 USA Today revealed that since 2001 the NSA has been illegally and covertly collecting a massive database of calls placed by tens of millions of Americans. In May 2006, shortly after this startling revelation, Bush nominated Gen. Michael Hayden to be the new CIA Director. As NSA chief from 1999 to 2005, Hayden oversaw that agency’s massive, illegal surveillance. During his confirmation hearings, Hayden refused to publicly answer any probing questions about this surveillance, continuing to claim against all evidence that he and the NSA were abiding by the law.

Anonymous said...

Never in the boom, never in the bust, I guess.

*

Those places get real slow, in the busts. I remember being there during the last recession, and folks hanging out at the 'bar' saying "You got a job really?". They let you take off?

One thing is certain, Burns didn't get a tons of Cali flippers, but their economy was dependent upon people 'driving through'. The timber in all of Eastern ORYGUN was shut down last summer.

At least people take care of one another, in Bend yes, they'll fuck one another, because that is the LA WAY. When the SHIT hits the fan in BEND, you can expect all these LA transplants to "Go Shopping", just like do during riots in LA.

The walmarts & costco's will get hit by a bunch of cali-locust, and that will be it, no more cargo.

Never been a better time to be an armed guard full employment.

Anonymous said...


In Bend, Ore., there's no excuse to be bored


Framed by mountains and forests, Bend, Ore., is home to world-class cyclists, triathletes, kayakers and rock climbers — and, of course...

By WHITNEY MALKIN

The Associated Press


Bend information

Get tourist information, including on where to stay, through the town's Visit Bend office, www.visitbend.com or 877-245-8484.

Mount Bachelor

Check on the ski area's operating hours at www.mtbachelor.com/ or 800-829-2442. Lift tickets are $58 weekdays, $69 Saturdays and holidays for adults. (There are discounts for children and seniors.)

Nordic ski tickets are $14 to $17.

Bend hotels

Bend has many motels, lodges and B&Bs (get info at www.visitbend.com) plus resorts such as Sunriver, www.sunriver-resort.com, about 15 miles from Bend.

Traveler's tip

For those who don't want to drive, Bachelor's Super Shuttle ($7 one way) leaves almost hourly during the ski season from the Bend Park-N-Ride and heads to the ski area. www.mtbachelor.com/winter/planner/super_shuttle

— The Associated Press and

Seattle Times Travel staff

Framed by mountains and forests, Bend, Ore., is home to world-class cyclists, triathletes, kayakers and rock climbers — and, of course, skiers who flock to nearby Mount Bachelor.

Bend's population has quadrupled in the past 20 years, but it seems like all 70,000 residents are friendly and eager to get outside and play.

Named one of the five best little ski towns in America by Travel + Leisure magazine's December issue and one of Outside magazine's best towns last year, Bend is surrounded by 2 million acres of national forest, rivers and the Cascade Mountains.

A logging town that hasn't forgotten its roots, the earthy, laid-back community has Craftsman-style architecture, a buzzing downtown and an exceptional culinary scene.

On the slopes

Don't forget the skiing and boarding. Mount Bachelor has 10 lifts, several terrain parks, more than 31 miles of Nordic trails and a tubing hill.

At a little more than 9,000 feet, Bachelor is known for long ski seasons that stretch into May. It's also a dormant volcano that regularly emits steam through tiny cracks. The vents are so small you ski right over them, but the heat sometimes melts snow around the crevices.

On cloudy days, skiers should try the Outback chair, on the northwest shoulder of the mountain, where conditions are often pristine and the runs feature the best moguls.

Boarders will likely feel at home in the Superpipe, which has been home to the Chevy Truck US Snowboard Grand Prix and 2006 Olympic qualifier.

Boarders and skiers alike should head up the Summit chair on clear days. It gives breathtaking views that make the chilly ride to the top well worth it.

For lunch, try Scapolo's at the midmountain Pine Marten Lodge. At the end of the day, settle into the Clearing Rock Bar in the West Village Lodge.

Good eats in Bend

Back in town, there are a lot of choices for dinner.

With more than six homegrown breweries, nightlife is defined by grabbing a pint and warming up by the fire. Check out Deschutes Brewery, 1044 Bond St., which features more than 18 beers on tap. Be sure to try Jubelale, a seasonal winter ale brewed for just a few months each year during the holidays.

But if you tire of long lines at Deschutes, head down the street to the Silver Moon Brewing, 24 N.W. Greenwood Ave., which offers the cheapest craft brews in town at $3.

For dinner, wander downtown to grab a bite at Merenda, 900 N.W. Wall St., for tapas-style offerings and an extensive wine bar.

Other surefire bets are Zydeco, 185 S.E. Third St., where fresh local ingredients, Northwest flare and Cajun spice collide, and The Decoy Bar and Grill, 1051 Bond St., a newcomer that's turning heads.

For meals easier on the wallet, check out Parilla Grill, 635 N.W. 14th St., and order the fish tacos, made with fresh snapper.

For different evening entertainment, head to McMenamins Old St. Francis. In addition to a billiards room, Turkish soaking bath and cigar bar, the downtown hot spot (and hotel) is home to concerts and shows $3 movies in a theater filled with couches. The staff will deliver pizza and beer to your seat during the show at what once was a Catholic school.

Beyond skiing

Outdoors lovers may want to hook up with Wanderlust Tours — www.wanderlusttours.com — to spend a night trekking on a moonlight snowshoe tour or relaxing by a bonfire on the snow.

Or, for a winter classic, head up to the Seventh Mountain Resort — www.seventhmountain.com — and strap on some ice skates to twirl under the lights on an old-school outdoor rink.

Or, if you're looking for a family adventure, take a sled-dog ride. Get details through www.mtbachelor.com/ (click on "services/activities").

Shopping and museums

Shoppers should head to the Old Mill District, the former site of a sawmill and now a vibrant 49-store shopping complex on Bend's west side (www.theoldmill.com/).

Farther south you'll find Factory Outlets, 61334 S. Highway 97, where bargain-hunters can grab deals from Oregon-based Columbia Sportswear and Nike.

Want a little culture? For kids, the Working Wonders Children's Museum, www.workingwonders.org, or (for adults and kids) the High Desert Museum, www.highdesertmuseum.org, are great ways to spend the afternoon.

Anonymous said...

"Or, for a winter classic, head up to the Seventh Mountain Resort — www.seventhmountain.com — and strap on some ice skates to twirl under the lights on an old-school outdoor rink."
===

Old school ice rink.... or maybe rinky-dinky ice rink.

Hows that fool and his lawsuit about his fractional share condo buy? Tell the good Dr. Boors that only fools sign a fractional sales agreement that they didn't read.

Every Village has one, and the Village Idiot at 7th Mtn Resort... is Dr. Boors.

Anonymous said...

Dr. Boors is a full owner, and has nothing to do with the fractional owner lawsuit @ INN7th.

With PAPE & FRIEDMAN now dead, all these lawsuits are at a standstill. No one is alive to sue.

What do you do when your not block abortion clinics?

Is this Janes Wife?

Anonymous said...

"NOTHING THAT YOU SEE IN THE USA IS REAL .. WHO WOULD HAVE GUESSED"


Apparently nothing in America is what it seemed.

Ponzi schemes, corruption and bankruptcy signal American meltdown


Sunday, December 14th 2008, 4:00 AM
Darren Gygi

When the history of these extraordinary times is written, the case of Bernard Madoff will deserve special attention. His confession to his sons that his $50 billion money management empire was a "giant Ponzi scheme" and that almost nothing was left stands as a perfect metaphor for the collapse of the second Gilded Age.

It's not just the sheer size of the swindle that is astonishing. Nor is it that the sons immediately reported their father's confession to the feds, who arrested him.

What's really astonishing is that Madoff, 70 years old, was a major player on Wall Street for more than 40 years and one of the most respected titans in the investment world. His funds delivered such high returns that his clients, including charities and endowments, considered it a privilege to be permitted to invest with him. He was an establishment icon, a financial wizard to the roster of old money and new, from New York to Palm Beach.

Poof, now their money is gone, too. Welcome to the club, folks. The bailout line forms to the left. Take a number.

Apparently nothing in America is what it seemed. The wealth boom, fueled by the credit bubble that made luxury lifestyles common, turns out to have been largely a global fraud. The con lasted only as long as new suckers bought in. It all seemed too good to be true because it was.

If you're one of those prudent people who lived within your means, you probably wondered how your neighbor could afford a new car and a boat and a bigger house on the same salary as you. Now you know the answer.

Your neighbor was living on borrowed money, just like Madoff, all the banks on Wall Street, the Detroit automakers, the insurance companies, most of the states and cities. Now the piper must be paid, sometimes in criminal court.

How long the unraveling will take and how deep it will go is a guessing game, but recent days have proven that America's meltdown isn't limited to financial shenanigans. The brazen hawking of a Senate seat by the governor of Illinois, caught on FBI wiretaps, has taken those corrupt precincts to a new low. All the more so because the seat was held by our next President, forcing Barack Obama to answer uncomfortable questions about the sordid saga.

The prospect that Obama could be damaged by the scandal before he takes office is unnerving some people, including a few journalists. As a savvy colleague, who has always been wary of Obama, said to me, "We can't afford this now. Too much is at stake."

My friend has a point about the stakes. With our troops fighting two wars abroad and the economy still sinking, there's no time for buyers' remorse. Besides, as President Bush largely cedes the stage to his successor, Obama has earned high marks for his calm demeanor and for picking known and trusted economic and security aides.

Yet I'm not sure we can avoid learning who in the Obama camp was talking to the office of Gov. Rod Blagojevich. Obama said he had no conversations about his successor, but promised to make public any contacts from others on his team. Already there are reports that Rahm Emanuel, the next White House chief of staff and a Chicago congressman, talked with Blagojevich about the Senate seat, so the momentum is moving quickly toward disclosure.

Even if we wanted to put our heads in the sand on the issue, it wouldn't be a good idea. We'd be repeating the same mistake we made on the economy. Not wanting to spoil a good thing, we ignored the warning signs of danger ahead.

Our willful blindness didn't stop the perfect storm from hitting so hard that an emerging question is whether even Uncle Sam has the deep pockets to weather it. The trillions of dollars pumped into the economy haven't done the job, and the clamor for more is virtually nonstop.

The automakers perfectly illustrate the dilemma. Nobody believes a bailout will do anything but delay the inevitable, yet everyone is afraid to let them fail.

So count on Washington to borrow some more money and hope for the best. It's the new American way.

mgoodwin@nydailynews.com

Anonymous said...

Good fucking point.

Lolli-Pop Politics, OBAMA is a fucking MOBSTER, but he's our MOBSTER, ...

Keep feeding DETROIT, but know that they're a loser.

We all smell shit, but keep the happy face, and comment about the sweet-smell.

The USA burns, and HBM fiddles about the great day of OREO.

If the OREO survives he'll beholden to those who kept him safe.

We have years to come before anybody close to the truth can lead the USA.

Putting a corrupt POL, from the most corrupt city in the world, in charge of the USA was quite brilliant. If your an anarchist.

Anonymous said...

The prospect that Obama could be damaged by the scandal before he takes office is unnerving some people, including a few journalists. As a savvy colleague, who has always been wary of Obama, said to me, "We can't afford this now. Too much is at stake."

*

The recurring theme, we can't afford to fight the fire, so we'll throw on gasoline.

Years become decades, the fire rages, engulfs the world.

You can't say humans aren't predictable.

Marge said...

>>>>Hunker down, Folks. The Big One is coming. War. Depression. Suicide. Remember your 4 B's. Stock Up And Lock Down.

Sounds like something I have said a few times.

The question is Have those words fallen on deaf ears? or have any of you actually done something tangible to protect and prepare yourselves from that which is without a doubt coming?

Anonymous said...

No need to be bored...

http://i19.photobucket.com/albums/b178/blackberry74/geregerbil.gif

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And this area's greatest asset is going to be destroyed:

Less-pristine rec sites may greet us in 2009
Bulletin board postings, toilet maintenance and litter removal all depend on fees, which were down in 2008

"Come to our litter-strewn forests, where bums & methers give discount blow jobs, and circa-2004 triple D titties are yours for the fucking..."

Anonymous said...

Get ready for a eurozone bank meltdown.

http://paul.kedrosky.com/WindowsLiveWriter/ChartduJourBankLeverageWorldwide_96FF/leverage_2.png

hbm said...

This fucking mess has it's roots in the Tech Boom of the late 90's... so yes, HBM... Clinton.)

The roots go way, way deeper than that, to policies begun 30 years ago that led to the gradual impoverishment of working Americans -- union-busting, resistance to raising the minimum wage, shifting more and more of the tax burden away from the rich and the corporations onto the backs of the middle class. Combine those policies with globalization, deregulation (of practically every sector but especially the financial) and neglect of our education system and infrastructure and you have the makings of the disaster we are now seeing unfold.

So yes, Homer -- REAGAN.

BTW I'm no big fan of Clinton, whom I consider almost a DINO -- although, obviously, he was far better than Chimpy. (But then what president wasn't?)

hbm said...

Hunker down, Folks. The Big One is coming. War. Depression. Suicide. Remember your 4 B's. Stock Up And Lock Down.

As a late, lamented friend of mine used to say: "Well, there's always the river."

And she wasn't talking about fishing.

I figure I've had 62 good years before America turned to shit, so when the time comes to go I'm ready.

Anonymous said...

You used to be semi-entertaining and kind of smart.

Now, you've just lost your fucking mind.

See ya' later, and please get some psychological help.

hbm said...

Already there are reports that Rahm Emanuel, the next White House chief of staff and a Chicago congressman, talked with Blagojevich about the Senate seat, so the momentum is moving quickly toward disclosure.

There is NO EVIDENCE WHATSOEVER that any of Obama's team, much less Obama himself, did anything improper with regard to the selection of his Senate replacement, yet the right-wing pundits are swarming all over this like flies on a turd.

Here's the deal: The Republicans have convinced themselves that they have a divine right to the presidency and they just refuse to accept it when a Democrat whups their ass. They couldn't accept it when Clinton won and they spent eight years trying to drag him down, climaxing (pun intended) with Blowjobgate. They can't accept it that Obama won and they will spend the next eight years trying to drag him down.

Republicans: Always PUTTING COUNTRY LAST.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

You used to be semi-entertaining and kind of smart.

Now, you've just lost your fucking mind.

See ya' later, and please get some psychological help.


Are you going to take that Buster?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


There is NO EVIDENCE WHATSOEVER that any of Obama's team, much less Obama himself, did anything improper with regard to the selection of his Senate replacement, yet the right-wing pundits are swarming all over this like flies on a turd.


Dude, you have clearly never been to Chicago. I would hasten to call it the most corrupt town in America, were Bend not already holding the title.

Obama IS dirty, it's just a matter of degree.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I need to learn Chinese... next growth industry.

Anonymous said...

A birdy inside the bulletin tells me they are rearranging the paper. Moving bits around to different days. Trying to save costs and be more relevant to poverty-stricken bendites.

No more focus on new home living. Moving toward the kinds of activities you do at home when you're broke in a bad economy.

It'll be interesting to see how slim the paper gets after the holiday ads.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Anyone seen how paper-thin rags like "Home & Garden" are getting? Those are going down...

tim said...

>>Moving toward the kinds of activities you do at home when you're broke in a bad economy.

So is that like the home craft movements of the 70s and after 9/11?

Candle-making, carving old peoples' faces out of apples, macrame plant holders, doing puzzles, crocheting vests for your family because your house is so damned cold?

bruce said...

Re:
The question is Have those words fallen on deaf ears? or have any of you actually done something tangible to protect and prepare yourselves from that which is without a doubt coming?

###

Should have seen the crowd at the gun counter at Sportsman's Warehouse yesterday. I gave up trying to get some help after a while.

bruce said...

Re:
Are you going to take that Buster?

###

Naw, he's off looking for something new from Ann Coulter or Michelle Malkin to cut and paste.

Or his new squeeze, Stephanie Ramage.

Here, Buster, is some real knowledgable stuff from Ms. Ramage:

Don’t abandon Iraq By Stephanie Ramage

I recently met a Korean War veteran who explained to me that the Korean War was never won because no peace agreement was secured. What we achieved was an armistice, which is why we still have troops on the North Korean border.

“The truth is,” he said matter-of-factly, “we haven’t won a thing since World War II.”

That is a profound observation. World War II was more than 60 years ago. In that time, we have been involved in one military conflict after another, and we typically withdraw without securing peace.

For example, we did not “win” the Gulf War—many soldiers who fought in it call it “the unfinished war” because we should have taken Baghdad then. But for political reasons, we did not, and that is why we are fighting in Iraq now. If we had done the responsible thing then, our soldiers would not be there now. Securing peace means preventing war, not merely delaying it.

That’s why I so strongly opposed last week’s attempt by members of Congress to withdraw our troops from Iraq by the end of the year. I do not want my son, now almost 11, to ever go to war, and I have very little doubt that our troops will be returning to the Middle East within 10 years’ time if we leave Iraq prematurely.

In responsible societies, one generation makes the world a safer place for the next. My father made the world safer for my generation by serving our country in WW II. My brother, serving in the Gulf War, tried to do that for my son’s generation as well. Then, in 2003, my nephew, a young man in his 20s, deployed to Iraq and I hoped that he and his fellow soldiers would be allowed to do what my brother’s fellow soldiers had not been allowed to: establish a base of American cooperation.

People want us to leave Iraq because our presence there, they say, is based on a pack of lies. Well, your marriage may be based on a pack of lies, too, but if that marriage has produced children who would be irreparably harmed by your abandonment, would you leave it? Our union with Iraq has produced ideological “children” presently growing up in the minds of the young people who live in that country. If you think that some of those youths hate us because of the turmoil their country is experiencing now, just wait until we abandon them and the only doctrine they are fed is virulently anti-American. We have a choice to make. We can leave, or we can do the moral thing regardless of why we think we are there, and keep our long-term commitment to them, help them to grow up in a free country, and help guard them from Iran.

The New York Times editorial board wrote on July 8: “Americans must be clear that Iraq, and the region around it, could be even bloodier and more chaotic after Americans leave. There could be reprisals against those who worked with American forces, further ethnic cleansing, even genocide. Potentially destabilizing refugee flows could hit Jordan and Syria. Iran and Turkey could be tempted to make power grabs. Perhaps most important, the invasion has created a new stronghold from which terrorist activity could proliferate.”

After disingenuously wrapping certainties in the fog of speculation by using the conditional word “could,” the Times states we should leave. Its columnists, of course, do not tell the truth about their flimsy and ineffectual prescription for peace. They do not mention that following our abandonment of Iraq, our ability to hammer out any peace agreement anywhere in the world will be dangerously compromised. War is the enforcer of peace, and one’s reputation for keeping one’s word is the only thing that precludes the use of that enforcer; peace agreements hang entirely upon trust. If we abandon Iraq we will have failed so horrifically at both war and peace that one wonders why any country would ever trust us again.

The worst of this is not that our abandonment of Iraq will spark more terrorist activity throughout the world, but that our children will pay the price: Diplomacy and the honor of nations upon which it depends are built over time. The world watched as we left Saigon on April 30, 1975, as our allies frantically tried to hand their babies up to the departing American helicopters hoping that they would at least be able to save their children. The world watched as we abandoned our Vietnamese allies to the bloodbath caused by our departure. If we abandon Iraq next year, the world will watch us leave yet another ally to its bloody fate. Would you want an ally like us?

There is no “war to end all wars”—that was President Woodrow Wilson’s wishful thinking about World War I—but there is foreign policy that takes into account future consequences. If we pull the plug on our efforts in Iraq, that country will be absorbed by the most aggressive, extremist anti-Western factions of Iran and the mercenaries of Syria. The resulting regime, developing its atomic weaponry and seeing an opportunity to expand into the neighboring states that will have been destabilized by huge waves of refugees, will attempt to do exactly that. To hammer home who their scapegoat is, they will attack us directly, and we will not have the diplomatic credibility necessary to avert the war that will result.

Then, my child and yours will go to finish yet another unfinished war. SP

LavaBear said...

Size 10

That is an instant classic.

hbm said...

"It'll be interesting to see how slim the paper gets after the holiday ads."

It's already slim. Today's Bulletin nearly gave me a hernia carrying it in, but take the inserts out and it's barely a leaflet.

The trend toward inserts is bad for newspapers because while the inserts yield revenue they don't yield as much as ROP ads, and the ROP ads are needed to keep the news hole a decent size. Eventually people will stop buying a "newspaper" that's only a wrapper for 10 pounds of inserts.

hbm said...

That is an instant classic.

ROTFLMAO!!!

A very wholesome custom that should have been emulated by our own Washington press corps, IMO.

Anonymous said...

Newspapers everywhere are doing poorly.

Imagine how much ad revenue must have fallen for the Bulletin since the peak of the bubble.

hbm said...

Moving toward the kinds of activities you do at home when you're broke in a bad economy.

Parcheesi and Chinese checkers will make a big comeback.

My goodness, people might actually read again.

Nah, that's probably too much to hope for.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

That is an instant classic.

Those fucking Iraqis LOVE to fight!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Man, and they just went Rodney King on that bastard! They kicked the hell outta him! Awesome.

Marge said...

After 16 years in the same house, I actually get to make the very LAST payment next week. Now the only way I'll have to move is when I am taxed out. That will be coming to a Bend home near you.
No debt except the tax man!
My $169 foodsaver that I got for $59 and free shipping was delivered Friday. Now I can really load up the pantry. The 23 qt. canner will be here next week. This is what the Bull should write about for their Home and Living section. Canning and food storage. Gary Lewis should write about proper gun handling and ammo storage.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Imagine how much ad revenue must have fallen for the Bulletin since the peak of the bubble.

I don't suppose collapse is imminent there... but they are having belt-tightening discussions they've never had before....

LavaBear said...

Shrub has decent reflexes. Kind of like he knew the other shoe was about to drop.

You have to wonder where the hell is the secret service agent ready to take the bullet.....err I mean the shoe. I'll give them the first shoe but the guy was able to reload and pop-off with another one without a single agent stepping in. Perhaps they were laughing too hard but that doesn't seem to be their nature.

Anonymous said...

"the gradual impoverishment of working Americans -- union-busting, resistance to raising the minimum wage, "
====

Where does HBM get his shit from, the HoneyBucket leftovers shack? What an idiot....

Yes, Detroit's problems are all laid at the feet of Reagan and his Union busting buddies.

It couldn't be that each Detroit car has a "union tax" that makes the car cost $2543 more than the Made in USA Honda or Toyota.

Or that Union contracts force there to be way to many specialized job descriptions, since the union members are always saying "No my Job, man. Go ask Barney to that shit... not my job."

Let Detroit bail themselves out, just like the Airlines.

Whoever said that we CAN'T let the auto industry go bankrupt is an idiot. Inefficient industries with overpriced labor go bankrupt all the time.

And if you think pissing $15B down the auto industry rathole this year will help anything, you are wrong. It might buy 6 months, but not even a year. And when the Chinese start shipping their cars worldwide, GM and Chrysler will go the way of the Packard and the Studabaker.

Anonymous said...

The question is Have those words fallen on deaf ears? or have any of you actually done something tangible to protect and prepare yourselves from that which is without a doubt coming?

*

Marge, never assume more than 3% have the ability nor desire to plan, besides, all the hungry will get bailed out? Right this is the USA.

I can see the end of the tunnel on this bail-out thing, its not going to last for long.

Anonymous said...

BP,

Buster went skiing, M,Tu, W, Th, F, Sat, & Sun; I plan on going skiing everyday now until the snow is gone, so if you don't see me around you know where I'll be until mtn-bike season.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


It couldn't be that each Detroit car has a "union tax" that makes the car cost $2543 more than the Made in USA Honda or Toyota.


Yeah, take a look at who is holding up this BAILOUT. It's the UNIONS, who are so greedy, they'd rather get shot in the face than survive.

Anonymous said...

if that marriage has produced children who would be irreparably harmed by your abandonment, would you leave it? Our union with Iraq has produced ideological “children” - BP

*

This is funny, so now we're supposed to believe that after 10+ years, all those children that have died from dysnentry cuz we bomb their water&sewer, we're know supposed to believe they all be the seed of white men, pleeze, your making spill beer on my bib.

Anonymous said...

Obama IS dirty, it's just a matter of degree.

*

OREO ain't dirty, he's from Chicago.

Shit cum, on we have talked this sheeeet for months, you can't take a guy who was brought to power by FARRAKAHN, and 'made' by WHITE power of Chicago, and then make this OREO national with the 2004 DEM conv, ... Then he's pres, ... but pleeeeeeze, like somebody in the MEDIA said today, #1 with POL's is they ASS-U-ME that all ameriKKKan's are stupid.

Anonymous said...

There is NO EVIDENCE WHATSOEVER that any of Obama's team, much less Obama himself, did anything improper with regard to the selection of his Senate replacement, yet the right-wing pundits are swarming all over this like flies on a turd.

*

What would this 'evidence' look like ... "Hey if you give me $5M I give you the OREO's SENATE seat and let you fuck his wife for life" ...

I get it now, and paid AD in the NY=TIME's "FOR SALE OREO SENATE SEAT, HIGHEST BIDDER, SEND CHECK TO RAHMBO", ... Is that the kind of evidence??

The trouble with 'evidence' and criminal LAW in the USA HBM, and you know this, is it doesn't have a FUCKING THING TO DO WITH THE FACTS.

GAME-OVER, OREO is going down, before Jan 20, 2009.

hbm said...

You used to be semi-entertaining and kind of smart. - HBM

-

I resemble that remark.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, take a look at who is holding up this BAILOUT. It's the UNIONS, who are so greedy, they'd rather get shot in the face than survive.

*

Let's be HONEST here HOME=BOY,the UNIONS PUT in the OREO, and its PAY-BACK time.

If the BUSH were TRULY an INDY he would oppose, but like Nader&Vidal say "There is no diff between PUG&DEM".

The Unions, so what you want, but they're NO worse than the PUBLIC unions ( prison industry ), and now that everything is going Fascist ( CORP public ), all GOV controlled, all will be public union.

So what your seeing with Detroit is the last of the public unions getting 'theirs'.

The future USA will be a prison colony, for worker-bees to support 'public-union' employees.

Anonymous said...

Here, Buster, is some real knowledgable stuff from Ms. Ramage:
- BP

*

Sounds to me like a bunch of AIPAC dribble.

BP, FYI I don't search google for 'fox obama'. I search for 'Obama Capone'.

I don't care if the author is left or right, I only care if their interesting, LIMBAUGH & O'Reilly are never interesting

Anonymous said...

Candle-making, carving old peoples' faces out of apples, macrame plant holders, doing puzzles, crocheting vests for your family because your house is so damned cold?

*
I remember those years, people were making 'ice candles', and carving nickels with coping-saws to make jewerly, and growing orchids in hot-houses, ... it was like everybody bought into the next biz @home, and the trouble is the only folk that made money were those selling the next biz.

My favorite got to be the laminating Hendrix photo's on tables over shellac, hell black-lights, ... indoor growing, ...

Humans are fucking dumb monkeys, and BEND its 99.997%, its going to be fun to watch.

Anonymous said...

This could be a fucking war you know, throwing shoes at a US prez??

Anonymous said...

The next thing you'll know is that the US will invade Iraq.

Anonymous said...

Hey, BUSH, thanks for 'liberating' Iraq, but most of all thanks for giving me this job for life ... Maliki,

Anonymous said...

Somebody has burned down the only church in Wasilla, AK, and now PALIN is going to move to ORYGUn.

Anonymous said...

Who would have guessed how 'madoff' beat the street for 40+ years, ... not the SEC.

Who would have known? Who would have guessed? Nobody saw it coming? Next time somebody says those lines bitch-slap them.

...

Madoff Scandal Deals Blow to SEC
Wall Street Journal - 2 hours ago
By KARA SCANNELL An enforcement case 16 years ago gave the Securities and Exchange Commission its first shot at figuring out how Bernard Madoff could rack up favorable returns with such uncanny consistency.

Anonymous said...

You have to wonder where the hell is the secret service agent ready to take the bullet.....err I mean the shoe.

*

Who would have guessed?

You know this wasn't in their planning, now from now on, everybody will be barefoot at these 'meetings'.

Just remember that this house was hand picked with USA loyalists.

Anonymous said...

Bruce said: "Should have seen the crowd at the gun counter at Sportsman's Warehouse yesterday. I gave up trying to get some help after a while."


They only have one AR left and they don't know when they will be getting more. I don't know if anyone noticed but the 50Cal Bushmaster on the counter was sold last week. You cut down trees and punch holes in armored vehicles with that gun...ain't no hunting rifle.

I have been thinking of adding an AR-15 to the collection but .223 just seems a little small if shit hits the fan. Remington has makes an AR-25 in 7MM & .308 but nobody has then and nobody can get them.


Nice post this week Homeboy...so bright and cheery for the holidays.

hbm said...

You have to wonder where the hell is the secret service agent ready to take the bullet.....err I mean the shoe.

Also makes one wonder what might happen after Smirky leaves office (God hasten the day!) and has a lower level of protection.

To employ an old New Jersey expression: "I ain't sayin' nothin', I'm just sayin'."

hbm said...

My favorite got to be the laminating Hendrix photo's on tables over shellac, hell black-lights, ... indoor growing, ...

Ah, those were the days!

Maybe hanging plants in macrame baskets will come back.

hbm said...

What would this 'evidence' look like

Well, I'd settle for a wiretapped conversation in which Blago says the Obama team is offering him a bribe to appoint Obama's choice.

But we don't have that. Instead we have tape of Blago saying O and his team can go fuck themselves because all they're offering is "appreciation."

And then we have Fitzgerald saying repeatedly, in response to questions, that O is not implicated.

Of course there will never be enough evidence to convince the right-wing loony-toons because they want -- no, NEED -- to believe they didn't get their ass whupped fair and square.

Anonymous said...

How about a new running tally of businesses dropping like flies around Bend? I thought for sure there would be some gloating about Volo closing. Deep? What the hell - heard Jodi Denton took off to Canada for Chrissake. This town is buggered...

Jane said...

>Deep? What the hell - heard Jodi Denton took off to Canada for Chrissake. This town is buggered...

I heard he was heading for Australia and both were closing after this week.

Rumors fly all the time. I've heard tons of them over the summer, making me less likely to believe them anymore. This one does come from more credible sources, but I'll still believe it when I see it.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I thought for sure there would be some gloating about Volo closing. Deep?

Why? What's the news?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Well, Holy Shit...

Volo closed; future plans are unclear

Published: December 12. 2008 4:00AM PST

The downtown Bend restaurant Volo appears to have closed, but it may be temporary, according to the restaurant’s landlord, Jeff Pickhardt.

Volo — which opened in May on the bottom floor of the 919 Bond building at 919 Bond St. — has been dark all week. Numerous calls to Volo’s managing partner, Chris Jones, have not been returned.

“I’m having a hard time getting the straight scoop, so I’m not sure what the outcome is,” Pickhardt said. “It appears they are doing some restructuring, not necessarily closed, but I don’t even feel confident with that.”

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

“It appears they are doing some restructuring, not necessarily closed, but I don’t even feel confident with that.”

OK Pickhardt, They are taking your shit, dude. They are packing up, go git yo money!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The downtown Bend restaurant Volo appears to have closed, but it may be temporary, according to the restaurant’s landlord, Jeff Pickhardt.

What? This guy practically admits they've offed with the fixtures, but BULLSHIT'N spins it as a temporary shutdown.

Good call DOUCHE BAGS.

VOLO IS NO MOMO.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I hope we can expect a Bulletin story soon about a Great NEW restaurant opening in Volo's place...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Wow, shows how disconnected I've been for the past week... Volo finally went bellyup, and I didn't even know!

tim said...

We already covered Volo in last week's comments, didn't we?

Anonymous said...

Why get an ar-15? sks is a war proven gun 762x39 and a lot cheaper. drag that fucker in the mud and will still shoot. get you a mosin nagant 762x54 now those are on sale at big five for 99.00. can get ammo cheap online although i can reload the brass with 308 bullets.You can drive taks with those and when you run out of ammo just attach the bayonet for hand to hand.

Anonymous said...

It's all Sheila Hollern's fault!

LavaBear said...

>>>We already covered Volo in last week's comments, didn't we?

There was a thread over on the BendBB General under Merenda. Enon proxy etc...

Anonymous said...

What's with all the new work out places in bend? Why pay to work out when you can do it for free?

Anonymous said...

It appears that the two cops who died in Woodburn-Orygun this week were killed with toyz (BOMB-EQUIP ) bought in, ... BEND-ORYGUN. Flying Couches, Pregnant-Men, and now BEND is going to be crawling with men from BATF doing friendly Tim McViegh Visits. ...


Officials: Bank bomber might have used cell phones

53 minutes ago

PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) — Cell phones might have been used in a bomb blast that killed two officers who had carried the device into an Oregon bank, investigators said Sunday as they released surveillance photos of a "person of interest."

Marion County Sheriff Russ Isham said the man in the photos, who has not been identified, may have experience in welding and electronics.

The photos, apparently taken with a security camera, show a man with an average build who appears to be in his 30s. He has a beard and dark hair.

The Sheriff's Office declined to say where the photos were taken but said someone involved in the bombing might have been in the central Oregon city of Bend last month.

Cell phones and items that might have been used to make the bomb were bought in Bend last month, Isham said. The man might have taken actions "in furtherance of his plan" on Thursday and Friday in Salem and Woodburn.

Authorities would not elaborate on how cell phones might have been used. Bombers often use cell phone signals to remotely detonate explosives.

Lt. Sheila Lorance of the Marion County Sheriff's Office, the lead agency in the case, did not have an explanation Sunday for why the officers who ended up dead or wounded took the bomb into the bank after it was found outside.

A West Coast Bank branch manager found the device Friday after a call about a bomb threat to a nearby Wells Fargo bank branch that turned up a harmless device.

Isham asked the public to help identify the man in the photos. A $35,000 reward has been offered for tips.

"We remind the public of the danger he poses to our community, not only to the potential intended victims, but to others who may know him or are exposed to his explosives," Isham said.

"He may be careful, but others around him — children, relatives or co-workers — may be in grave danger," Isham said.

Woodburn Police Chief Scott Russell remained in critical condition Sunday at a Portland hospital as a result of the blast that killed Woodburn police Capt. Tom Tennant and Oregon State Police Senior Trooper William Hakim.

Robert Sznewajs, the CEO of West Coast Bank, said Sunday that the bank planned to establish a fund for the families of the law enforcement officers.

Sznewajs said that all records and money kept at the branch were secure, and that it would reopen as soon as possible.

Anonymous said...

VOLO - was mentioned by lava last monday night, he said he heard it at deschutes, it was posted here, how come HOMEBOY doesn't read his comments, he has 'nofollow' on so google doesn't see the comments for indexing, and he doesn't read them himself, ...?? HOMEBOY used to say the comments were the best part of BB2, we'll yes, the home-page content is always the same retread.

I have also heard from kids in the biz that 'blacksmith' is going down, after just spend millions on the new remodel.

The other night (thursday) at the new Summit Bar, one year anniversary, a lot of kids there said it wasn't going to make it.

We have heard for over a year that DEEP was going down, and MERENDA, welll they're just waiting for their lease to pass.

Anonymous said...

BEND is going to be crawling with men from BATF doing friendly Tim McViegh Visits. ...

*

Sort of reminds me of Kingman, AZ I'll tell you all a little story.

Back when OKC blew up, McViegh had also done some stuff with a guy name Fournier I think his name was, and he had lived in Kingman, AZ. At the time the luv-guv assumed there was some kind of right-wing neo-nazi white-trash militia that was going to take over the USA.

Long story short, the FBI paid a visit to every person who had a FFL license in KINGMAN-AZ, visited their homes un-announced and took their FFL book's. They never saw them again, they were looking for anybody that had ever traded guns with McViegh or Fournier. They were looking for links to a vast 'militia'.

All this 'gun talk' going on here, normally orchestrated by the BP-PUSSY, who is a serious gun-grabbing liberal always goes back to this recurring agent provocateur shit.

With this bomb incident in Woodburn, this weekend, and the fact that the materials have been traced to Bend Oregon. Sure as shit I can tell you all that have FFL's or any serious 'gun' collections, or black-powder purchases, or whatever that you will get a visit.


Now back to Kingman, AZ so most of meeee buddy's down there live out in the remote fucking desert ( seen the move 'tremors'?? ), and they all got visits the same way the same week, and never heard a word. Along come the driveways in the open desert 1/2 dozen black suburbans with tinted windows and out pops G-MEN all in full CAMO & sub-machine guns, and they simply asked for the FFL logs. My friends have never seen their books ever again, most got rid of their FFL's all together after that. Once regular folks have had gun pointed at the heads of their entire family, it makes them think twice about being on a list of FFL 'holders'.

As far as I know, they never found one link to local Kingman, AZ to Fournier or any militia, as he was said to be a loser/loner, and nobody ever sold him anything, but it is said that some had met him.

I have no idea what ever happened to him, I think him & his wife got ten years for not telling the government about the crime to be, as he is said to have known that McViegh had planned to bomb the BATF building @OKC, that had been the HQ for the murder of the Branch-Davidian Children.

I'm telling the above for two reasons, one is how the system works, and secondly I think that its fine to talk & debate the economy but talk about guns in these times is not a good idea, just my humble opinion.

marge's talk about beans, bullets, booze, and bullion, is just her attempt to be sexy. note she never talks about gun's, only bullets, and marge is an old law enforcement woman,

Anonymous said...

Volo — which opened in May on the bottom floor of the 919 Bond building at 919 Bond St.

*

So close to the D&D ( 927 bond ), and so far from god.

But go up a few floors and you got cigar humidor heaven.

Anonymous said...

The question is Have those words fallen on deaf ears? or have any of you actually done something tangible to protect and prepare yourselves from that which is without a doubt coming?

*

What can one really do marge? Just live, try to keep low enough on the radar where you don't get your door kicked in at 5AM.

I sure wouldn't want to be in BEND-ORYGUN if the shit hit the fan, there is a lot better places to be, like places where you can grow food. High desert is a rich persons game, ... if things get ugly your going to get locked down, why sit in a house in BEND-ORYGUN? I would much rather be traveling in Australia.

The real ticket I think is to have your passport current, and see it coming. That said it will come but in pockets, but not here. We don't have the racial problems of that most of the USA has.

Bend is a great place to play outdoors, if I had to stay put for months on end, I would get the fuck out of this town and quick.

Hawaii ( remote places ), Mexico ( remote ), Nea Zealand, ... lots of cheap nice places in the world to weather a fucking storm rather than fucking BEND-ORYGUN sitting eating cold canned beans, and counting your bullets & bullion. I hate fucking butter, give me olive oil.

The thought of living in a rat-hole out in the desert, and eating beans, butter, and listening to the radio 24/7 sounds like a living hell to me. Put me in front of a TV, and I would blow my brains out quick.

bruce said...

Arrest made in bomb explosion that killed two officers

The Register-Guard

Published: Dec 14, 2008 08:03PM

WOODBURN — Police made an arrest Sunday evening in connection to the killings of two Oregon police officers, critical injury to a police chief, and an injury to a bank employee when a bomb exploded in a Woodburn bank Friday afternoon.

Marion County Sheriff Russ Isham announced the arrest Sunday night, but the Marion County District Attorney’s Office has directed the suspect’s name, investigative and arrest details withheld because of the ongoing investigation.

Police arrested the man in the Salem area and expect to release his name and the charges he will face Monday afternoon.

“The arrest was the result of an intensive round-the-clock investigation by an interagency task force comprised of federal, state, county, and city public safety agencies,” said Isham. “I’m really proud of those who tirelessly worked to get us to this point and am humbled by the community’s support. We know there is still a lot of hard work ahead of us, but this development will help bring relief to the local community and the officer’s families.”

Oregon State Police Senior Trooper William Hakim and Woodburn Police Captain Tom Tennant were killed in the Friday afternoon bombing. Woodburn police Chief Scott Russell was critically injured. An employee of West Coast Bank was also injured.

bruce said...

7 degrees and dropping. Tough fucking night to be homeless in Bend.

bruce said...

7 degrees and dropping. Tough fucking night to be homeless in Bend.

Anonymous said...

What's with all the new work out places in bend? Why pay to work out when you can do it for free?

*

I agree, to me work-out is outdoors, see that is the paradox.

Most of these CALI KUNTS that moved here, HATE OUR FUCKING WINTER from OCT to MAY, so they go to spin classes, and ... blah-blah, ... spin is a new word for stationary bicycling, indoors.

To me people who exercise indoors should be living where you live. You need 'fresh air', whether its yoga, ... or anything you need fresh air.

So we have these 35k that moved here in the last ten years they hate this fucking place, they can't stand being outdoors, so they go to all these 'health clubs' to exercise in artificial CALI like climates.

I know I was MTN biking everday up to 4-5 days ago, and now I'll be skiing every day until APR, and then back to the MTN-BIK.

FUCK INDOOR EXERCISE.

I think from a business thing, however the shops a cheap, its like opening a KARATE school or whatever, what the fuck do you need just a fucking empty building, and then get idiots to sign up to get their 'black belt'. Ditto with all Bends shit, its the cheapest BIZ in the world to open, an exercise place, and people are paying for you to yell at them!!!!

Then there is this trend today of having a 'trainer' where you pay somebody $40/hr to tell you what to do, ... lift, squat, ... Having a trainer is so fucking CALI. If you can't discipline yourself to get off your ass.

OH, I paid $30 for todays 1hr spin-class, so I got to go, ...

It's all BEND-STUPID shit, CALI-STUPID, soon all of BEND's spa's, and salons will be fitness places where people will pay to sweat.

BEND FUCKING STUPID.

I can see it in the next COVA Press Release "Tourists come to Bend for indoor exercise, worlds premiere place to ride a bike indoors", ...

Anonymous said...

7 degrees and dropping. Tough fucking night to be homeless in Bend.

*

Not for the lucky guy that gets to crawl up in your womb.

Tomorrow is going to be -2F.

If your getting all bothered about the 'homeless' BP, drive over to WALMART and bring a few home.

But pleeeeeeeze don't preach to us about their choices, or yours.

I don't know why the MAJORITY of these rich calis live here, it sure as hell ain't 7F tonight @ palm-springs.

tim said...

>>I can see it in the next COVA Press Release "Tourists come to Bend for indoor exercise, worlds premiere place to ride a bike indoors", ...

That's pretty damned funny.

Anonymous said...

Arrest made in bomb explosion that killed two officers

*

That's good, but the FBI will still be scouring BEND for weeks trying to find out if HE(she/it) had any acquaintances here, or did any gun purchases, ... BATF

It's pretty amazing what people do with cell phones, how they buy them in their own name, like McViegh, he was buy calling cards, that's how they linked his network.

These days all cell phone calls are backed up, and GPS(aliased) by location of origination, once the FED's put together his cell list, they could easily triangulate.

Then of course there are cameras everywhere, they put a photo out of this guy yesterday probably everybody that knew him called the cops for the $35k reward.

Crazy fucking people, but thats not the point, the point is BEND-OREGON. Why Bend?

Are our walmarts really better than those in the valley??

Anonymous said...

That's pretty damned funny.


*

Tim but its NOT funny, and you know its true, and you know that MALKIN will have that in her next press release, given that people come from all over the world to Bend, to shop, and all our shops be fitness centers.

tim said...

Why Bend? Bend has a lot of complicated Karma to work out. That's why.

We've earned a lot of misery.

tim said...

>> and you know its true

And that's why it's funny. It's unbearably, embarrassingly true.

Anonymous said...

Shit BP now NOAA says a low of -3F tonight, and a high tomorrow of 9F.

Going to be a cold ski tomorrow.

Next two days high of 9F, its going to be a COLD brew night tomorrow @ deschutes.

Abyss time.

bruce said...

Going to be tough getting any glide, that's for damn sure. Be able to walk up without skins.

I see Bachelor got Pine Marten open today. While, Sunshine, too. If you consider that skiing.

Anonymous said...

Bend the Must Visit City for Bombers, & Wannabe Terrorists

Bend Bulletin(C) Bend, Oregon

December 14, 2008

(Bend, Oregon) COVA Bends Central Oregon Visitor Association has just been granted $472k dollars by the city of bend for the promoting new Bend Pyro Mall & Weapons Bizarre.

Situated by the Old New Mill, the new Bend Pryo Mall will sell explosives, cell phone detonators, explosive phone cards. Specializing in detonators, high explosives, binary's, and a wide variety altitude controlled fuses. Remote controlled detonators for all ranges. New laser triggers for avoiding radio detection, or radio jamming anti-terrorist systems.

Computer Fire Control systems that previously could only be found at the DOD research labs are now readily available for public purchase in Bend, Oregon.

Bruce Aberpussy of Bend Oregon says "With all the terrorism in the world, Bend was just being passed by". So far the City has met its goal. Most of the recent killings and bombing in the Pacific Northwest had their components traced back to Bend, Oregon. Aberpussy went on to say that the ripple effect had already improved tourist traffic at Bend Hotels & Bars.

A hit with the familys is the Little-Bomber Pyro Center, where children can mix harmless binary chemicals and create their own high explosives in minutes and detonate their work product on site. It's really fun for the whole family say's COVA, and it really puts Bend on the map so when people think of death Bend comes to their mind.

Aberpussy said, "Bend has always been #1, and we want the whole world to know we're #1".

Anonymous said...

I see Bachelor got Pine Marten open today. While, Sunshine, too. If you consider that skiing.

*

I know your going to think I'm stupid, but I always walk up and ski down. So what your telling me is I will not have to use skins?

I had no problem today and it was dry. Yesterday was very wet, but felt colder because of the wind.

I hate the lifts, fear of getting stuck on the fuckers. Now that MT-B is 'open' I'll not be skiing there much, but if east-side is still closed, then its all mine.

Besides I hate to sit on the fucking lifts when its 5F and wind blowing, I need to be always moving.

Marge said...

>>>>What can one really do marge? Just live, try to keep low enough on the radar where you don't get your door kicked in at 5AM.

I am sure my ISP, that changes often, could find me. But the small motorhome is now packed and ready to go at a moments notice. I love Bend when I stay out of the frey of noobs and snoots.
I am pretty full of it when it comes down to it. Never believe anything I say. I tell too many lies and can't be trusted.
Buying my oneway to Mexico, then back here to drive a differnt direction. Will find internet access along the way.

HAAA HAAA HAAA..B,B,B,B.

Jane said...

"explosive phone cards"

I don't live in Bend, but can someone please get me some for my mother in law as an xmas gift??

Do any of you Benders have a mailing address or website??

Anonymous said...

But the small motorhome is now packed and ready to go at a moments notice. I love Bend when I stay out of the frey of noobs and snoots.

*

Now mobility is nice, especially in the right season. I hope tonight you got a nice fire, or warm comforter.

There is NO such thing as anonymity marge, if someone wanted to know everything about you they could, you know law enforcement a lot of people who have access to the computers sell the file(s), same with google, an insider can get an IP, or an insider can sell an IP.

If you want privacy, then first order would be NO computer, internet, or electronic gadget of any kind. For instance today ALL cell phones are really remote bugs, and the only way to turn them off it to remove the batterys, and they always tell the carrier where your at. No, if you really wanted 'privacy' you wouldn't even use a computer, or have any kind of electronic gadget near you.

I always say that a 'computer' is just a way to get people to type in their own dossier for the Government.

Anonymous said...

I think I figured out 'why bend'.

You folks remember 911, a rumor was that all the terrorists got to go play in Las Vegas before zero-hour, ... sort of like getting ready for their own 24 virgins in the special place they were going ...

So our home-grown terrorists, see read in the news that Bend was a special place for people to visit who were near the end ( retirement ).

Sort of like that new movie "In Bruges", which is hillarious, about a hitman who is to be killed, but is sent to Bruges(Belgium) to enjoy life before he his killed.

So people come to Bend ( heaven on earth ), before they to do nasty shit, like the 911 guys, so the BEND COVA PR&MARKETING MUST be working.

Wackos come to Bend for R&R before they do nasty shit, who would have guessed??

Bend is Aspen.

Anonymous said...

I love Bend when I stay out of the frey of noobs and snoots.

*

Me too, but noobs and snoots don't ski or bike in the remote woods, and I don't got to any of Bend's 1k 'fitness centers', and thus we never meet.

Well except @ deschutes, but I'll tell you folks in the last few weeks the noobs have dropped off big-time.

The #1 noob used to be look for for RE in Bend, and I haven't seen those noobs for a long time.

Now its all old angry white men, pissed as hell cuz their BT(brokenTop) crap-shack is +$100k under-water. It's NOT funny anymore, these guys are angry, fighting angry. There's a lot of people in Bend ready to crack, and you don't want to be near them when they go off.

Anonymous said...

Now that 'winter' is here, and the ski is on, we'll see tomorrow if there are any tourists @ deschutes on monday, cuz the last few mondays had been just regulars, which is strange.

It's awful cold, but if we don't see a pickup downtown in the next 1-2 weeks, then this winter-cycle could be the end of a lot of downtown, like dunc mentioned the other day, most biz makes almost ALL their money of the quarter in the next 1-2 weeks, and so far this quarter has been dead.

Marge said...

>>>>>Now mobility is nice, especially in the right season. I hope tonight you got a nice fire, or warm comforter.

I have a fire and a comforter.
I agree with all that you said. If for some reason I felt becoming covert was really necessary I would certainly not be here chatting it up with ya'all. There is still alot of time before the SHTF. Might be 2 years yet. Lot's of time to wind down the electronics and cell phones. I certainly don't live in fear of reality. I just get ready for that which is ahead of us. I like living in my own skin, do you?

Anonymous said...

It's NOT funny anymore, these guys are angry, fighting angry. There's a lot of people in Bend ready to crack, and you don't want to be near them when they go off.

*

I was going to quit, got to get up early and ski ...

These 'retirees' that moved to Bend in the last 2-8 years and bought hook line & sinker this idea that BEND RE only goes up, that their $750k BrokenTop STD would be $2M by 2010, and then they could move anywhere, hell Aspen. What I see is the recurring self pity broken dream, people in their late 50's or early 60's that retired 'early' cuz in Bend anybody could retire, all you had to do is buy any fucking STD for zero-down, and live forever off the HELOC, and still walk away with a cool $1M anytime you wish, ...

Bend COVA/CORA ... talk today about PONZI HEDGE, hell BEND is/was a $10Billion or more ponzi scheme, all orchestrate by the CITY through COVA/CORA/COBA, ....

What's interesting the anger is directed ONLY towards those who RUB the in SHIT in the face of the suckers, which is common psychology, when most people get fucked, their ashamed.

If & when all these destitute old broke retirees with NO hope in hell of ever finding a job that will put them back in the black in their lifetime, if they ever seriously organize or collectively put their heads together it could be an awesome force, but for know self pity rules Bend, OR, and you don't want to be in range of any of these fuckers going off.

Pity, I have no pity, for anybody, as we ALL here had to listen @BBQ's for years about how smart these free-loaders were, the Deschutes was full of retired 30 yr olds in 2005, who only had to flip one house year to make $50k....

Almost of Bend it seems played, yet most I know aren't hurting, like Homer says soon it will people you know rather than the news.

For now I see tons of people trapped in BEND, and believing the COVA/CORA myth that it will come back, like a fucking chinese water torture.

Anonymous said...

Might be 2 years yet.

*

They really don't have any use for us old people, especially if we have our own money to pay for our own confinement.

I think it would be a bad time to be a kid.

There are lots of worse places in the USA to be than eastern-orygun.

I really don't care who listens ... I have always approached all this shit with the assumption that there is NO such thing as privacy.

Yes, two years from now will be worse than now, ... food on hand is always a good idea,

I just don't think that if the USA goes toward the NAZI thing it would be a pleasant place to even be around. The smart jews got out of Germany very early. Those that waited until the end, didn't get to leave.

If you read the Wall St Journal everyday, you can find out where the hot spots are, and how shit is growing, and pretty much make a move before martial law. Simple things like keeps lots of fuel available so you can take the long drive with the RV.

I just don't see 'martial law' in eastern-oregon, the problems will be where the people are, 90% of the people in urban areas, those are the ones that need to be controlled.

This is why I moved here over 40 years ago, but that said, if they did have food rations, and fuel, and forced everybody to stand in line for everything, ... I would get the fuck out of here.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Doug Farmer:

NOV 2008
Listings Sold: 78
Listing -2- Sold Ratio: 25 to 1
This Month Sales vs Year Ago: - 23.5%
Median Sales $ this month vs Year Ago: - 23.5%
Listings Expired: 142
Avg Square Footage: 2017
Avg Days on the Mkt: 199/234
Avg Sale Price: $ 319,401.
Median Sales Price: $ 265,535.
Active Listings Nov 30: 1725


NOV 2007
Listings Sold: 102
% of Inventory Sold: 4.89%
Listings Expired: 133
Avg Square Footage: 2062
Avg Days on the Mkt: 170
Avg Sale Price: $ 430,599.
Median Sales Price: $ 347,500.
Active Listings Nov 30: 1982


OCT 2008
Listings Sold: 129
Listing -2- Sold Ratio: 18 to 1
This Month Sales vs Year Ago: + 7.5%
Median Sales $ this month vs Year Ago: - 14.6%
Listings Expired: 156
Avg Square Footage: 2061
Avg Days on the Mkt: 154 / 185
Avg Sale Price: $ 342,392.
Median Sales Price: $ 280,000.
Active Listings Oct 31: 1970

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

NOV 2008
AVG $/SF: $158.35 (-24.17% YoY

NOV 2007
AVG $/SF: $208.82

OCT 2007
AVG $/SF: $166.13

Starting to look like Real Price Drops! Down 24% is pretty brutal.

Anonymous said...

Starting to look like Real Price Drops! Down 24% is pretty brutal.

*

Yes, and mean's for all those BrokenTOP retirees, that their money-tree, is now a sink-hole, retirement over, but there are no jobs, welcome to the greatest collective ponzi scheme in US history.

Who would have guessed that the majority of baby-boomers would get snookered?

Anonymous said...

Dropping quick to below $100 sq-ft HOMER, you still buying?

tim said...

If 24% is brutal, imagine how the next 24% is going to feel.

Anonymous said...

IRAQ MAN WHO THROWS SHOE AT BUSH TO BE 2008 'MAN OF THE YEAR' WHO WOULD HAVE GUESSED??

Iraq rally for Bush shoe attacker

Sadr Protests for Iraqi TV journalist

Bush shoe-ing worst Arab insult

Thousands of Iraqis have demanded the release of a local TV reporter who threw his shoes at US President George W Bush at a Baghdad news conference.

Crowds gathered in Baghdad's Sadr City district, calling for "hero" Muntadar al-Zaidi to be freed from custody.

Anonymous said...

If 24% is brutal, imagine how the next 24% is going to feel.

*

Maybe you can help, me I studied this shit, but it was fifty years ago.

Remorse, anger, regret, guilt, contemplation, escape, retribution, ... Denial, Hope, ...

What is the order??

Certainly we have seen 'denial', that is pretty much finally past. I'm seeing lots of anger.

It's really 'tulip mania' here in Bend, these people now think its a national, the BULL&SORE denied, now they're saying 'look across the USA', no its far worse in BEND, and we're still the most over-valued.

'Tulip-Mania' can be read in McKays 1800 class 'Grand popular delusions, and madness of crowds', if you read the south-sea corp chapter, and tulip-mania, then you'll know exactly what happened in Bend, and how it will end.

tim said...

Shock or Disbelief
Denial
Bargaining
Guilt
Anger
Depression
Acceptance and Hope

Yes, I've read Popular Delusions and Madness of Crowds long ago. Of course.

I think I said before the most amazing thing to me is huge bubbles usually happen once a generation, so why did people fall for a bubble in 2005 after having one in 2000?

hbm said...

If 24% is brutal, imagine how the next 24% is going to feel.

Another 24% drop in the median home price -- from the present $268,000 to $204,000 -- still won't get us to where the median should be, based on Bend's median household income.

hbm said...

And to the assholes who were saying "it doesn't get cold in Bend": Fuck you! When I got up this morning the temperature outside my house was 4 DEGREES. Maybe that's not Minnesota cold or Wisconsin cold or Siberia cold, but it's BLOODY FUCKING COLD by any reasonable definition.

If I was able to sell my house I'd be outta here in a fucking heartbeat.

Anonymous said...

ok here it is ...

enthusiasm, greed, delusion, denial, fear, capitulation, despair.

Right fucking now we have passed denial, and have entered 'fear', its going to be a free-fall drop now the next 1-2 years.

There is a graph, I'll post it this AM on BB ( bendbubble.blogspot.com ).

Anonymous said...

http://bendbubble.blogspot.com/2008/12/bend-oregon-bubble-now-enters-fear.html

OK, its UP, the new 24% graph, with nice pic's, and of course the credits all go to HBM and the SORE.

Great graph TT, it shows exactly where we're at.

The real trouble is the graph isn't linear in time, I think these things ramp up quick in greed phase, but take forever to un-wind.

Anonymous said...

Sorry HOMER, I fucked up, I forgot to put 'nofollow' in BB like you do in BB2.

tim said...

>>When I got up this morning the temperature outside my house was 4 DEGREES. Maybe that's not Minnesota cold or Wisconsin cold or Siberia cold, but it's BLOODY FUCKING COLD by any reasonable definition.

"Reasonable" depends on your experience. If you grew up in the midwest, 4 degrees happens every year. -15 happens in most, and the difference between 4 and -15 is huge.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

How much wealth in this country is a House of Cards?

Alleged Madoff fraud has worldwide exposure

By JOE BEL BRUNO and JANE WARDELL, AP Business Writers

Monday, December 15, 2008

The list of investors who say they were duped in one of Wall Street's biggest Ponzi schemes is growing, snaring some of the world's biggest banking institutions and hedge funds, the super rich and the famous, pensioners and charities.

The alleged victims who sunk cash into veteran Wall Street money manager Bernard Madoff's investment pool include real estate magnate Mortimer Zuckerman, the foundation of Nobel laureate Elie Wiesel, and a charity of movie director Steven Spielberg, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Among the world's biggest banking institutions, Britain's HSBC Holdings PLC, Royal Bank of Scotland Group PLC and Man Group PLC, Spain's Grupo Santander SA, France's BNP Paribas and Japan's Nomura Holdings all reported that they had fallen victim to Madoff's alleged $50 billion Ponzi scheme.

The 70-year-old Madoff (MAY-doff), well respected in the investment community after serving as chairman of the Nasdaq Stock Market, was arrested Thursday in what prosecutors say was a $50 billion scheme to defraud investors. Some investors claim they've been wiped out, while others are still likely to come forward.

"There were a lot of very sophisticated people who were duped, and that happens a great deal when you've had somebody decide to be unscrupulous," said Harvey Pitt, a former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, a regulator in charge of monitoring investment funds like the one Madoff operated.

The extent of the potential damage prompted a leading fund manager in London to lash out at U.S. regulators for failing to detect the fraud earlier.

"I think now it is very difficult for people to invest in things that are meant to be regulated in America, because they haven fallen down in the job," Nicola Horlick, the manager of Bramdean Alternatives, which has 9 percent of its funds invested in Madoff's scheme, told the British Broadcasting Corp.

"All through the credit crunch this has been apparent," Horlick added. "This is the biggest financial scandal, probably, in the history of the markets."

Among U.S. investors, the Boston-based Robert I. Lappin Charitable Foundation, a charity that financed trips for Jewish youth to Israel, sacked its staff after revealing that the money for its operations was invested with Madoff.

New Jersey Sen. Frank Lautenberg, one of the wealthiest members of the Senate, entrusted his family's charitable foundation to Madoff. Lautenberg's attorney, Michael Griffinger, said they weren't yet sure the extent of the foundation's losses, but that the bulk of its investments had been handled by Madoff.

Lautenberg's foundation handed out more than $765,000 to at least 100 recipients in 2006, according to the most recent listing on Guidestar, which tracks charitable organization filings.

The foundation helps support a variety of religious, educational, civic and arts organizations in New Jersey and elsewhere, and its contributions range from a gift of than $300,000 to the United Jewish Communities of MetroWest New Jersey to a $2,000 donation to a children's program at the Hackensack Medical Center.

Reports from Florida to Minnesota included profiles of ordinary investors who gave Madoff their money. Some had been friends with him for decades, others were able to invest because they were a friend of a friend. They told stories of losing everything from $40,000 to an entire nest egg worth well over $1 million.

They join a list of more powerful investors that have come forward, all worried about the extent of their losses. The roster of names include former Philadelphia Eagles owner Norman Braman, New York Mets owner Fred Wilpon and J. Ezra Merkin, the chairman of GMAC Financial Services, among others.

The Wall Street Journal, citing a person familiar with the matter, said Mortimer Zuckerman, the chairman of real estate firm Boston Properties and owner of the New York Daily News and U.S. News & World Report, had significant exposure through a fund that invested substantially all of its assets with Madoff.

The Journal also said the Steven Spielberg charity, the Wunderkinder Foundation, in the past appears to have invested a significant portion of its assets with Madoff. It said the Elie Wiesel Foundation for Humanity, founded by the famed Holocaust survivor and writer, was hard hit by losses, citing two people familiar with the organization's investments.

Messages were left with the Zuckerman fund and Wunderkinder foundation. The Wiesel foundation said it was looking into the matter.

The Journal also reported potential investors and firms exposed to the alleged fraud included: Carl Shapiro, founder and former chairman of women's apparel company Kay Windsor Inc.; Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. co-founder Leonard Feinstein; Yeshiva University; EIM Group; UBS AG; Fairfield Greenwich Advisors; Tremont Capital Management; Maxam Capital Management and Ascot Partners.

Among those overseas confirming exposure on Monday, Banco Santander, the largest bank in the euro zone by market capitalization, said its clients have 2.33 billion euros ($3.07 billion) in exposure with Madoff, mostly through a fund called Optimal Strategic US Equity.

HSBC, Britain's largest bank, said a "small number" of its insitutional clients had exposure totaling some $1 billion in Madoff funds.

It added that it has custody clients who have invested with Madoff, but it did not believe those "custodial arrangements should be a source of exposure to the group."

Royal Bank of Scotland — Britain's second-largest bank, which is now 58 percent owned by the British government — said it could lose around 400 million euros pounds through exposure in trading and collateralized lending to funds of hedge funds invested with Bernard L Madoff Investment Securities LLC.

Man Group, the world's largest publicly traded fund manager that reported exposure of around $360 million on Monday, said "it appears that a systematic and comprehensive fraud may have been committed, evading a range of structural controls."

Japan's Nomura Holdings said it has 27.5 billion yen ($306 million) in exposure, but added that any losses were likely to be limited compared to its capital base.

French banks foresee nearly 1 billion euros in potential losses as indirect victims of the alleged fraud.

Natixis, France's fourth largest bank, set its maximum indirect exposure at about 450 million euros. A statement by the investment bank said it made no direct investments in hedge funds managed by Madoff. However, it said that some of its clients' money was invested in funds managed by "first class custodians," which in turn entrusted those securities to Madoff's investment securities company.

Both Societe Generale and Credit Agricole said they had "negligible" exposure of below 10 million euros each. However, the euro zone's largest bank, BNP Paribas, has estimated its risk exposure to hedge funds managed by Madoff at up to 350 million euros.

In a statement Sunday, BNP Paribas said it has no investment of its own in Madoff's hedge funds, but "does have risk exposure to these funds through its trading business and collateralized lending to funds of hedge funds."

Swiss bank Union Bancaire Privee indicated it had hundreds of millions of dollars in client assets invested under the management of Madoff. The Geneva bank, one of Switzerland's largest, did not disclose a total amount invested, but did say the exposure of its clients "represents less than 1 percent of the total assets under management of the bank."

UBP's announcement Monday followed weekend disclosures by Swiss banks Reichmuth & Co of Lucerne, Benedict Hentsch of Geneva and Neue Privat Bank of Zurich that they had millions of dollars worth of client assets at risk in the case.

In Germany, Deutsche Bank AG, Dresdner Bank AG and Commerzbank AG declined to comment on the matter.

On Friday, representatives from major U.S. banks — Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., PNC Financial Services Group Inc. and Merrill Lynch & Co. — declined to comment on if they had exposure to Madoff's company. Both BlackRock Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said they had no exposure.

Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo & Co., Comerica Inc. and U.S. Bancorp did not return calls seeking comment.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Starting to look like Real Price Drops! Down 24% is pretty brutal.

Heck no. I probably won't buy here cuz I won't live to see tlhe bottom.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And that the guys name is pronounced MADE-OFF is classic.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

If 24% is brutal, imagine how the next 24% is going to feel.

I ain't so worried about The Next 24% Down... it's the one after that I'm worried about.

People getting SHOT. Civil War.

Folks, people are STEALING PLUMBING for the love of Christ. People are STEALING SCRAP METAL. METAL STATUES. WTF!

You hear THAT sort of shit happening in UGANDA.

Anonymous said...

The Great Bend-Orygun Baby-Boomer Pension grab of 2006. Today we're now at free-fall, we have entered fear. While today I mostly see anger, the fear manifests itself externally as anger.

So here is the graph, so you can see exactly where you are in Bend-Orygun.

It's really 'tulip mania' here in Bend, these people now think its a national, the BULL&SORE denied, now they're saying 'look across the USA'.

No its far worse in BEND, and we're still the most over-valued.

'Tulip-Mania' can be read in McKays 1800 class 'Grand popular delusions, and madness of crowds', if you read the south-sea corp chapter, and tulip-mania, then you'll know exactly what happened in Bend, and how it will end.

http://www.amazon.com/Extraordinary-Popular-Delusions-Madness-Crowds/dp/051788433X

Another comment on the graph, the media in Bend (BULL/SORE) was deeply involved going back to 1998, when BROOKS/COMPASS put it all together and engineered the Bend Bubble. In 2004 COVA/CORA took Bend public to the world, brought in suckers from all over, by suckers I mean retiree's.

Not to blame Brooks/Compass hell for all effect Brooks owns the BULL, as they gave them $10M of land for free in 1998, and the BULL sold it to the city of bend in 2008 for $5M cash.

No the real blame goes to the baby-boomers that bit the bait that the BROOKS/COMPASS fisherman threw in the ocean of greed. Bend in itself was never special. What made Bend-ORYGUN so very special was the three-legged stool.

1.) Brooks/Compass 'smart growth' marketing of Bend post 1998. Northwest Crossing, ... No-Growth, Slow-Growth, all becomes neutered, only Brooks (HOLLERN) 'Smart Growth' is allowed in Bend. ( Smart Growth, and Smart Money [ see graph ] are always the same )

2.) Bush easy-money post 911, where everybody got to buy four homes for zero down.

3.) City of Bend spend's million via CORA/COVA/COBA to promote 'Bend' to the world, and deferred SDC's so builders came from all over the country to build and pay no upfront costs.

All things equal, most places got #2, most places were never a company town ( Brooks Scanlon ), so they didn't get #1, but #3 is the one that really sent BEND over the top. This is where the City wasted billions by letting builders build ten's of thousands of over priced Siberian Crap Shacks in Central Oregon. In spite of Millions of taxpayer dollars spent by the city of bend ( owned by BROOKS/COMPASS ), the homes never sold. Today Bend and outlaying areas sit on 10-30 years of inventory.

Anonymous said...

stealth phase 1998-2001

NWXC, Smart-Growth, ... all paid by HOLLERN.

Awareness phase 2002-2004

post 911, Bush easy-money

Mania phase 2004-2006

COVA,CORA,COBA 'BEND 25%/yr FOREVER always up, always has'


Blow-Off Phase 2007-2012

End of credit in March of 2007, easy-money gone, nothing to support the bubble, it collapses into negative 1998 pricing.


The vertical scale about 4X, note the time scale is NOT linear.

Anonymous said...

http://bendbubble.blogspot.com/2008/12/bend-oregon-bubble-now-enters-fear.html

Ok, I'm done for now, anybody have anything to add??

TT, I have convinced myself, that the ANGER I'm seeing is the outward manifestation of FEAR by Bend girly-men that have lost their ass up on BrokenTop, I'm not even going to think about the HOSE @NWXC.

Anonymous said...

Folks, people are STEALING PLUMBING for the love of Christ. People are STEALING SCRAP METAL. METAL STATUES. WTF!

You hear THAT sort of shit happening in UGANDA.

*

No that happens in ALL third-world country's, and in case nobody ever told you HOMER, the USA is a third-world country with NUKES. That's what they taught me when I got my training.

Anonymous said...

NWXC is dream gone bad. Much worse situation than the quiet frustration of Broken Top.

Anonymous said...

Alleged Madoff fraud has worldwide exposure

*

This is just the tip of the iceberg, see people couldn't get their money back from HEDGE-FUNDS until now, and now that the money is due, they can't pay, cuz it ain't there, ...


So now we'll see even more selling to raise cash.

Smart folks have predicted a complete liquidation in hedge-funds for months, trouble is you couldn't get your money out, its lock in quarterly or yearly cycle locks.

More de-leveraging, more selling, ..

Anonymous said...

NWXC is dream gone bad. Much worse situation than the quiet frustration of Broken Top.

*

Yes, many pre 2002 are paid off (@BT), and post 2004/2005, those are the angry BT'ers I might add.

I SIMPLY never meet anyone who 'admits' they do own @NWXC.

I do admit I myself tried to buy a few in FEB 2007, cuz I figured there were deals and even then at the realty-office of NWXC, owned by BROOKS, and next to the little coffee shop, even then they were saying 'Bend only go's up 25%/yr APR', and 'That all the realtors in the office owned 2-4 units themselves, as you could only make money', ...

I never got farther than that on NWXC I ran, I knew the kool-aide was so fucking DEEP @NWXC, ... sort of sad, cuz the little cottages were 'hobbit cute'.

Many were built very well 2004'ish, but now they're just terrible.

Then the FUCKING lawsuits, there so many fucking lawsuits @NWXC, ... homes were just too fucking close together, and just like the high-school nobody understood or cared about the drain-age, the DIFF of course the city paid $6M to rectify the field @ summit-high, next to NWXC, ... @NWXC there is NO money from anyone to pay for the remediation of the drainage problems.

I'm sure there will be insurance claims, but lets be honest most policy's written didn't include 'flooding', and I can tell you that the insurance biz is to collect premiums and deny claims. So all you can do is SUE, now you know why so many of our favorite 'builders' have filed Bankruptcy, cuz that is the ONLY fucking way to end the tidal wave of fucking judgments.

Talking about 'hobbit cute', it could be worse for NWXC folks, they can always point to the shire!!! That's the beauty of Capitulation, you can start looking at people who are MORE fucked than you are.

Everybody in BEND knows someone is more fucked than themselves.

Anonymous said...

I don't think we'll see this until 2010, anybody want to debate? Make sure you reference the graph at bendbubble.blogspot.com, sure there are some that are @capitulation, but I'm talking when the BULL tell's US.

A military term. Capitulation refers to surrendering or giving up.

In the stock market, capitulation is associated with "giving up" any previous gains in stock price as investors sell equities in an effort to get out of the market and into less risky investments. True capitulation involves extremely high volume and sharp declines. It usually is indicated by panic selling.
Investopedia Says... After capitulation selling, it is thought that there are great bargains to be had. The belief is that everyone who wants to get out of a stock, for any reason (including forced selling due to margin calls), has sold. The price should then, theoretically, reverse or bounce off the lows. In other words, some investors believe that true capitulation is the sign of a bottom.

Jane said...

Here are excerpts from a Daytona-area real estate company’s web site newsletter for the last six months. Note how capitulation arrived in December (this month).

July: Activity from prospective buyers continues to increase… but sales continue to remain sluggish… we think we have seen 90-100% of the price declines that we are going to see… The process of moving properties from weak hands to strong hands is well underway… the slowing of price reductions indicates the process is nearing an end.

August: The real estate market in our area continues to just move sideways along what appears, from a volume perspective, to be the bottom… We do not believe the real estate slump will get worse- and we do think the credit crisis will end soon.

September: (Starts with a discussion of the recent OFHEO numbers.) …OFHEO found the price declines in the second quarter… to be not as bad as the first quarter. Yet the declines for the year ending June 30 were worse than for the year ending March 31. So we have the twelve month figure looking better and the three month figure looking worse. This is the way things are when a market turns around.

October: (Starts with a rambling analogy to a marathon runner.) It was the liquidity crisis that tripped the real estate market last month, dumping it on all fours (photo of a runner on her hands and knees). The question is whether the market will get right back up…or whether the liquidity crisis… will hold it down a while longer.

November: The question we were left with last month was whether the market’s abysmal performance in September was a temporary stumble or a full-blown collapse… it appears September was an aberration rather than the start of a new leg down.

December: Unfortunately there is virtually no good news on the housing front… the situation just keeps getting worse and the housing market now has little chance of recovery without a recovery in the whole financial system, which at this point, to be perfectly frank, has collapsed.

Jane said...

Note: That's an example of capitulation. They are way ahead of us in this. We aren't even close yet.

Anonymous said...

I'm starting to SMELL a rat on this orchestrated 'PONZI', hell if I hear the word 'bailout' for these rich hedgy's I'm going to be pissed. Everybody knew this was coming, all these HEDGES are going down, its silly to call this a 'ponzi', or a crime, this is how they all have operated for years. It's just they could have NEVER handled redemptions and there had never been a run in the past.

...

Madoff wreckage hits L.A. Jewish Community Foundation
9:02 AM, December 15, 2008

The wreckage from the case of Wall Street insider Bernard Madoff appears to be spreading to Los Angeles. According to the Jewish Journal, there is growing concern at the Jewish Community Foundation:

"It has come to our attention that the Jewish Community Foundation [Los Angeles] is included among a number of major institutions as well as individuals who may have been victimized by an alleged fraud," wrote Jewish Community Foundation Board Chair Cathy Siegel Weiss and President and CEO Marvin Schotland in a letter sent to board members.

"Regretfully, the Foundation was one of those clients. Mr. Madoff was highly regarded and his firm has been one of the most prominent firms on Wall Street for decades. We were shocked to learn of this alleged fraud."

Some $18 million of the Foundation's Common Investment Pool (currently valued at 11% of its assets) was invested with Madoff, according to the letter.

The Times' Walter Hamilton has more on the Madoff affair.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Jane said...

Here are excerpts from a Daytona-area real estate company’s web site newsletter for the last six months. Note how capitulation arrived in December (this month).


Nice one.

Anyone notice the Friday Bull headlines?

"Space for homeless a concern in bend as chill nears"

"Less-pristine rec sites may greet us in 2009"

"A failed auto bailout would have wide ripples"

"Estrogen could be of benefit in breat-cancer battle"

"Recession might set mood for baby bust"

Only 1 positive story, and that was from a St Louis reporter. BULL's having a hard time find positive AP pieces, and since they are 90% AP-reprinter, can't get Pollyanna feeds anymore.

Both local pieces were negative as well.

Anonymous said...

Regretfully, the Foundation was one of those clients. Mr. Madoff was highly regarded and his firm has been one of the most prominent firms on Wall Street for decades. We were shocked to learn of this alleged fraud."

*

Note NOT stupid fucking managers, not bad stewardship, not a fiduciary responsibility, "HELP I HAVE BEEN ROBBED"

I smell a fucking RAT. When the fucking TULIP-MANIA imploded did people who held worthless tulips claim to have been robbed? They paid the fair fucking price, nobody hell a fucking gun to their heads.

It's like the homes @NWXC, I like to write about HOLLERN, cuz its BEND history, but god bless mike, he didn't put a gun to any greedy fucking BENDER's head and say "BUY THIS HOME", NO HE HAD THE BULL DO IT FOR HIM.

Anonymous said...

Robbed, "FRAUD", note now this criminal.

OK, I'll what I think is going on, it takes REAL MONEY to file a lawsuit, but if you make it CRIMINAL its costs a BIG ZERO.

That's what I think is being orchestrated, and remember like always it all started on friday over the weekend, and now its monday and all the money managers are yelling "WE HAVE BEEN ROBBED".

Truth be told, 'mark to market', we all knew the money was BEND-GONE almost a year ago.

tim said...

Interesting that the way the banks got screwed in this. It was because they were loaning money to hedgies that were deep in Madoff.

Anonymous said...

Jane,

Ditto for Atlanta, GA they had $300k ( 2004 high ) homes that weren't selling at auction 1-2 years ago for even $50k. Many places are way ahead of US.

That's why us old timers in BEND, always say to add two years of lag time to ORYGUN.

The trouble in BEND of course is that the city is OWNED by real-estate developer interest and thus the pain is prolonged, so this cycle we might want to start saying that BEND-ORYGUN lags by 4 years, only time will tell, but it looks like the old rule of thumb has been revised.

tim said...

Madoff is prime example of the dangers of doing what Greenspan did--prevent recessions every chance he got, and pump our way out of the shallow ones before crooks could get exposed. This is a two-administration, back-to-back Fed-led cock-up of amazing proportion.

Anonymous said...

Interesting that the way the banks got screwed in this. It was because they were loaning money to hedgies that were deep in Madoff.

*

Yes, but this is the TIP of the PENIS iceberg, them banks were diversified, and MADE-OFF is just the first to go public.

Everyone knew this was coming, but the Hedge-Funds had a locked-gate, and now they can't give excuses anymore on procrastinating the redemptions, and of course now the fucking banks have to mark all these ASSETS as a complete fucking LOSS. Which means ... MORE fucking bailouts, but we already knew this, the $8Trillion this fall of 2008, paid out by the FED will be over $20 Trillion by this time next year.

Anonymous said...

This is a two-administration, back-to-back Fed-led cock-up of amazing proportion.

*

Never fear the OREO has the same people but younger orchestrating ACT THREE.

Anonymous said...

Somebody help me, I wish BEM was around, he seems like a 'real' MBA, but there has got to be some interesting reason on "FRAUD" being the call of the day today, do these people get special tax treatment, or insurance coverage by calling 'Fraud', I mean it seems to me that nobody forced them to be in this highly leveraged most popular hedge-fund in the USA where you had to be a 'made' establishment jew, just to park your money.

There has got to be a legal explanation for calling this weekend's US-ECON kluster-fuck a 'FRAUD'. Sort of redundant as the USA is a fraud, Bend is a fraud.

Anonymous said...

"Estrogen could be of benefit in breat-cancer battle"

My wife says that ALL hormones can cause breast cancer. How can estrogen be a benefit??

*
Like below ALL fucking hormones have been proven bad, so how is this a positive homer? I say its JUST MORE BULL FROM THE BULL. Incapable of anything But BULL.
*


New analysis of a large federal study suggests menopause hormones taken for five years increases the risk for breast cancer twofold, revealing compelling findings of the dangers associated with these still widely used pills.

The new findings, presented last week at the San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium, will likely put to rest any doubts that the risks outweigh the benefits for most women.

In recent years, breast cancer rates have declined, largely, due to millions of menopausal women that have stopped taking hormone therapy and fewer women are starting taking it, said Dr. Rowan Chlebowski, M.D., Ph.D., the study’s leader of Harbor-UCLA Medical Center in Los Angeles.

“This is excellent news: Even if you’ve been taking hormones for a long time, quitting will still lower your risk of cancer within about two years,” said Dr. Claudine Isaacs, Medical Director of the Cancer Assessment and Risk Evaluation program (CARE) at Georgetown University.

The findings are based on the Women’s Health Initiative (WHI), which tested progestin and estrogen pills that doctors believed could prevent heart disease, bone loss and other medical conditions in women following menopause. The study was halted in 2002 after researchers found that HRT increased the risk of adverse events including blood clots, heart attack and breast cancer in hormone users.

Since that time, experts have continued debating about whether the risks apply to those women just starting on hormones after entering menopause, usually in their 59s, and take them for less time. The federal study included women mostly in their 60s and well past menopause.

Experts recommend using hormone therapy only when symptoms are severe and to use the lowest dosage possible for the shortest amount of time. New findings still support those recommendations and while they remain the same, what has changed is “whether hormone treatment should be started at all,” Chlebowski said.

Most short-term pill users are not at risk for developing breast cancer. The increased risk from hormone use over a few years accounts for a few extra cases of breast cancer per 1,000 hormone users. However, with each year of use, the risk increases.

The WHI was made up of two parts. The first part of the study included 16,608 women who were randomly assigned a placebo or Wyeth’s Prepmro (estrogen and progestin).

Researchers detected a 26 percent higher risk of breast cancer in women given Prempro prompting the study to be halted.

But, that average was based on the 5 ½ years the women were on the pills. For the new study, researchers followed 15,387 of these women through July 2005 and marked breast cancer cases as they occurred.

Researchers found a pattern – at the start of use, risk increased, peaked when the study ended and fell when hormone users stopped taking their pills. The risk of breast cancer for pill takers was twice that of the others at the peak.

In the second part of the study, 16,121 women who had taken hormones for about seven years and another group of 25,329 women that had never used hormone pills were examined.

In retrospect researchers found hormone users had begun with a double risk of breast cancer compared to the others and it fell as use stopped. Among hormone users at the start of the study, use dropped to 41 percent in 2003.

The use of hormone products has declined by 70 percent in the general population, since the onset of the study, said Dr. JoAnn Manson, study co-author and preventive medicine chief at Harvard’s Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston.

While that figure corresponds with a large decline in breast cancer cancers, some researchers speculate that this could be due to a drop in mammograms, which would in turn mean fewer cancers are being reported but not necessarily occurring.

In the future, researchers will observe women who took only estrogen, which is generally recommended for women who have had a hysterectomy.

Anonymous said...

We, as taxpayers, are actually being force-fed failure-laden bailouts. We will soon bailout everything. Airlines are probably next.

*

No victims of 'fraud' will be next.

Jane said...

This weekend I was at a friend's house for dinner. He lives in a nicer neighborhood where some homes have sold for upwards of $900k this year, but his place is one of the smaller/cheaper houses. He mentioned he may move some time in the next few years to be closer to family and he was thinking about putting an addition on his house to "raise the value" of it before he put it on the market. I let him know that would be financial suicide. He then mentioned waiting until the "market recovered," to which I mentioned that it would be 6-8 years at least before you could get today's price for the house, and it's going down fast.

We are far from capitulation.

And it sucks being the one that has to let people know.

tim said...

>>he was thinking about putting an addition on his house to "raise the value" of it before he put it on the market.

Are you kidding? I didn't know people were still thinking of throwing good money after bad.

Anonymous said...

We are far from capitulation.

And it sucks being the one that has to let people know.

*

Nobody likes the bearer of bad news, even 'buster', don't tell his friends the truth.

I think that plans need to be revised, everybody is always in a hurry, whether its 30-50mph in a Bend roundabout, or coming to Bend and flipping your RE to a cool Million in 1-3 years.

Divorce sky-rockets in good times, a lot of bubble people moved from CALI in post 2005 with their fresh divorce to GET RICH, and then move on, Bend is a terrible place to date & wait.

Now most these people have never had to wait for anything in their lives.

What I see from my talks with people on the street is Divorce, a little cash moved to Bend to see the 'kids' finish school, get rich, flip the house, and then 'retire' in paradise, Bend is now the town of broken dreams.

That said, there will be less divorce, things will slow down, and people will no longer expect to get rich over-night.

Yes, recovery is going to take at least ten years,

All these people WHO had no plan to stay more than 3-5 years, will all be wiped out for life. The smart ones will stay and survive.

Such has always been the way.

Anonymous said...

In Bend, Ore., there's no excuse to be bored

*

"If your still rich"

Anonymous said...

We are far from capitulation.

And it sucks being the one that has to let people know.

*******

We had several interesting family conversations over Thanksgiving...

One blamed people like me for shorting the stock market and driving it down.

The other said that we were just negative and people just needed to go out and spend money and everything would be okay. (This person by the way owes not only my family but my in-laws money all while driving new cars, wearing 25th anniversary rings and wearing $4,000+ watches.)

And yes, these people are in Cali.

Long way to go my friends...long way.

Anonymous said...

>>he was thinking about putting an addition on his house to "raise the value" of it before he put it on the market.

Are you kidding? I didn't know people were still thinking of throwing good money after bad.

*******

I know people still adding onto their houses, buying new funiture and buying flat-panel tv's for every room in the house...complete denial that anything bad is going on around them and they don't want to hear about it cause it's all about them. They did inherit some money but it will be gone in less than 5 years in my prediction.

hbm said...

"Reasonable" depends on your experience. If you grew up in the midwest, 4 degrees happens every year. -15 happens in most, and the difference between 4 and -15 is huge.

I did not grow up in the Midwest, I have never lived in the Midwest (nor would I want to) and 15 below is an experience I hope I never have.

I grew up in New Jersey and lived there and in Pennsylvania and New York before moving to California and then to Bend. I don't remember it EVER getting to 15 below in the Northeast (although of course it sometimes does in northern New England) and getting down to zero was very, very rare. (There was plenty of snow, however -- more than in Bend, in a typical winter.)

This is the COLDEST fucking place I have ever lived. It's cold in the fall, often brutally cold in the winter, cold in the so-called "spring" and barely warm in the summer. (Even at the height of summer you need to wear a sweater if you're going to be out much after dark.) I'm getting the fuck out as soon as I possibly can.

And I bet the realtors don't sell many homes to people who get a real taste of winter here in "paradise." Another reason why selling "lifestyle" is not a sound basis for building the local economy.

hbm said...

>>he was thinking about putting an addition on his house to "raise the value" of it before he put it on the market.

You almost never recoup the cost of home improvements when you sell a house. If you want the addition or remodeled kitchen or whatever for your own enjoyment go ahead, but don't expect to get the cost back when you sell.

It's often said that you recoup 90% of the cost of a kitchen remodel. Even if that's true (I doubt it) it's a bad deal. It's as if I said: "Okay, here's the proposition: Give me $10,000 now and in five years I'll give you back $9,000."

hbm said...

"I know people still adding onto their houses, buying new funiture and buying flat-panel tv's for every room in the house"

OTOH there really are no good investments for them to put the money into. T-bills at 0%? Or I guess there's always the mattress.

hbm said...

That said, there will be less divorce

No, there will be more. Divorce rates always go up in times of financial stress.

hbm said...

A 36-page Bulletin today, at the height of the Christmas shopping season (or what should be). Monday papers normally are skinny, but this is a shockingly low page count. Display advertising can't be more than 30%. (Newspapers typically aim for at least 50%.) They must be hemorrhaging money.

Jane said...

>Nobody likes the bearer of bad news, even 'buster', don't tell his friends the truth.

And I didn't tell this guy the "truth." I told him that he wouldn't get the money out of the remodel and I told him it would be "at least 5-6 years" before the price were where it is now.

The truth is that if we see house prices where they are now in 5-6 years it will be because we have had a fuck-ton of inflation and everything costs double what it does now. In terms of today's dollars we will probably be at about half the value in 5-6 years.

For me it has been coming up in conversation regularly. I sold last year and pocketed the cash. Very few social gatherings go by when someone doesn't ask when I'm going to buy again. I tell them we are probably a year out, when in reality it's probably closer to two - but ask me again next year at this time and I may still be saying two.

On the plus side, I have a friend who is a realtor, and we used to sell our house. Right after we sold we did throw in a couple offers that I thought were lowball at the time. In both instances our agent thought we were way too low and the seller laughed at us. One of those houses foreclosed 10 months later, and the other did a lease-to-own jobbie that hasn't recorded. For months I tried to explain to my realtor friend whenever she brought it up how bad things were going to get. This summer she got to the point that we would both make sure NOT to talk about it. Just last week we had a good conversation that she initiated where she listened to me. She listened to the numbers, to what was happening in other bubble areas, and when I came home I sent her an email with a 15-20 links showing all this. She thanked me. That probably brings the realtors who know what's going on to about 4 in this town, but I did my part.

Anonymous said...

I have been writing 'lowballs' for years, early on when I started blogging here, I wrote a blog on how to write low-balls.

If your realtor doesn't write your low-ball on your behalf, find a new realtor. If he/she or anyone laughs at your offer, rescind it and move on.

I have a dozens offers in 2007, and and one went through all that countered at full are no foreclosed, the guy that closed with me was as a happy as pig in shit.

Realtors don't make a commission unless their writing offers. A realtor who will not write low-balls is not a realtor they're a newbie, and will never survive. This is why I prefer folks that got 30+ years in the biz, been around long enough to know that 'closing' is what its all about.

There are a lots homes now that you couldn't touch 5+ years for any amount of money. When I see a nice home near Deschutes Brew pub, with a big yard, lots of off-street parking for toys, old trees, ... and if the seller has some equity, ... then I might write a lowball. Most of this siberian shit today I wouldn't touch with BP's dick. It's all NOD bait always is and always was. Fortunately most people paid less than $100k for their home, and are still making money if they can get $200k today, and in a year if they didn't sell, they'll wish they had sold for $200k.

Yes, the INFLATION is coming, and VOLCKER is coming, ... But HOLY shit, when these fucking RESET folks get HIT with the 20% APR on their crap-shacks its going to make the current NOD rush look like a trickle.

Low-Balls are like asking women if they want to FUCK, 9 times out of 10 you'll get slapped, the 10th time you'll get your brains fucked out. It's all a numbers game, and those that don't play, don't get laid or a good deal.

You can't BUY a house at 1/2 the current median if you don't OFFER the deal, and you die waiting for them to come to you.

Jane said...

Over on KOHD.com, Peter Gramlich receives call with an offer to pay off all his campaign debt if he agrees to meet before the UGB meeting....

"Gramlich has chosen not to reveal the identity of the caller."

Anyone recognize the voice in the message?


--------------------------

t's a sign to some that politics, even on a local level, can get dirty.

"It was pretty apparent that it was, we will pay off your campaign debt if you give us favoritism," said Bend City Councilor Peter Gramlich. That is how he interpreted a message left on his personal phone requesting a meeting before the city council votes on Bend's urban growth boundary expansion, a decision that can mean millions of dollars in increased property value for landowners who are included.

The message is hard to misunderstand.

"We would like to hand deliver to you personally a check for your campaign debt."

Citing ethical concerns, Gramlich did not return the call. But according to the Deschutes County District Attorney, the offer is not illegal. The caller only requested a meeting, not a vote. And the payment would be part of a campaign, placing it into the gray area of campaign finance.

"I know I've, in the past, have received some pretty big checks from people that may have something come before me and I've sent them back," said Deschutes County Commissioner Mike Daly.

He says drawing an ethical line is just part of campaigning but that he's never received such a blunt offer. A sentiment that is echoed by Redmond Mayor Alan Unger who said people should know better. Gramlich agrees calls like this are not the norm, but he says they can't be ignored.

"It bothered me and that's why I want to go public with it. I want to give the impression that Bend is not immune from local government corruption," said Gramlich.

Gramlich has decided not to reveal the identity of the caller.

Anonymous said...

"why did people fall for a bubble in 2005 after having one in 2000?"

Most people don't follow the stock market like you do, Tim. Money that got lost in 2000 was just retirement money -- kind of abstract unless you're actually at the age of retirement.

This time the bubble is in real estate -- this is most peoples' largest investment by far.


*


"selling "lifestyle" is not a sound basis for building the local economy"

Unless you are Phoenix or Tuscan. Difference is, they have warmer weather and easier communications.

tim said...

>>And I bet the realtors don't sell many homes to people who get a real taste of winter here in "paradise." Another reason why selling "lifestyle" is not a sound basis for building the local economy.

Not going to disagree with you on that. I've seen a lot of older folks go, rightly worried about the ice and their bones.

I know it's cold to a lot of people, but I've already been out in it three times today, and it doesn't strike me as incredibly cold. Just "normal" cold like I grew up in. Probably most people here came from somewhere warmer, but I know a fair number of people who came here from somewhere colder.

Anonymous said...

No, there will be more. Divorce rates always go up in times of financial stress. - HBM

*

I'm not sure HBM, its counter-intuitive, but I'll try and explain, in good times the women see the fucking bright light on the Horizon. In bad times there is no option. Hell yes stress increases in BAD times, but when they're broke there is no where to go.

How do I know this HBM, I was reading an article the other day by on the #1 divorce lawyers in the country, and they're now hurting cuz divorce is down. When times were good Bend REHO's were taking their builder hubby to the cleaners, now that times are bad, its bad times for divorce lawyers, when they do close a deal its a BK.

I'll say one more thing, given that my parents didn't go a day as a child telling me depression storys, even in the 60's they still would talk like going to be hungry was just yesterday, we knew that the tough times made people strong, brought them together.

LA & BEND were divorce paradises during all the BUBBLE's people were getting divorced, the REHO of Bend becomes a COUGAR, today most of BEND's cougars are starving they spent the 1/2 or more they got from the divorce now they're crawling back, in need of any kind of fucking den.

NO HBM bad times increases the bullshit that women will put up with, in good times they leave.

Truth be told me&you are probably the same, as we worship our wives, but I speak from observation of 'others', and by those I mean the SUV,BIG-TIT, BIG-DICK people. These are the people that make divorce lawyers rich.

tim said...

>>No, there will be more. Divorce rates always go up in times of financial stress.

I'm going to agree with that more. In fact, I'm already seeing it.

tim said...

>>OTOH there really are no good investments for them to put the money into. T-bills at 0%? Or I guess there's always the mattress.

The mattress will kill ya as soon as we get inflation. I don't know when that'll happen, but given the size of the bailouts, it's going to be a doozy.

Anonymous said...

Now my turn, why isn't this a fucking BLAGO coronation?? I mean clinton/kennedy/bush, ... its like these people BUY whatever they want, HRC wanted to be prez, Kennedy wants to be a Senator, SHE's GOING TO BUY THIS SEAT, where is the outrage??

Caroline Kennedy to seek Clinton's NY seat

USA Today - 1 hour ago
By Brian Snyder, Reuters By Ken Dilanian and Greg Toppo, USA TODAY WASHINGTON - Caroline Kennedy, who has spent most of her life outside of politics, has decided to seek the US Senate seat being vacated by Hillary Rodham Clinton, a friend said Monday.

tim said...

>>Monday papers normally are skinny, but this is a shockingly low page count.

When I picked it up, I almost hit myself in the face with it--that's how unexpectedly light it was. Not that I was in any danger--it would have felt like a feather.

Anonymous said...

>>OTOH there really are no good investments for them to put the money into. T-bills at 0%? Or I guess there's always the mattress.


*

Chinese YUAN is at LOW right now, and still say it will be on PAR with the dollar in five years.

Any of you fuckers that don't see this just have your eyes wide shut.

This attitude of chasing interest rate is what caused this HEDGE-FUND problem. It's not about interest rates, its about playing asset valuations on the long term, and making intelligent guesses.

There are always ways to make money, but why debate making money with renter losers that don't have any money???

Anybody want to have a serious debate on making money today bring it on.

tim said...

>>This time the bubble is in real estate -- this is most peoples' largest investment by far.

Gotchya, but you can't claim people didn't know about the 2000 bubble. The Bubble was party talk for 2 years. The Nasdaq meltdown was the lead media story for months.

Anonymous said...

>>No, there will be more. Divorce rates always go up in times of financial stress.

I'm going to agree with that more. In fact, I'm already seeing it.

*

I still say its counter intuitive, besides now your going to see a different group, before the opportunists made the flip ( divorce ), now your going to have people bail for different reasons, like they just want out, like here in BEND, you got a REHO married to a guy with a house under-water, ... you want out, he's BEND STUCK, so you bail, ... yes you'll see that, but 2000-2006 during the bubble there were a ton of divorces where people did it to cash out, and leave cuz they could, now most folks are stuck, as there is NO PRIZE on exit, now its leave with the clothes on your back.

Will there be divorce? Yes, will it be profitable for lawyers?? NO

Anonymous said...

OK, here is one factor, that is the problem here, unlike BEND RE this subject is NOT push-button easy.

...

Divorce rates edged upward last year in both Marine Corps and Army
Beaufort Gazette, SC - Dec 11, 2008
By PATRICK DONOHUE Two branches of the nation's military continue to push programs to help service members strengthen their marriages as divorce rates ...

Anonymous said...

Here's a mother-load...

To help people understand how divorce differs based on factors like education, age of marriage, and the era in which you married, Stevenson -- in partnership with divorce360.com -- developed The Marriage Calculator ( http://www.divorce360.com/content/divorcecalculator.aspx ) to show these differences to the public. Moreover, this calculator lets people see how the incidence of divorce evolves throughout the life of a marriage.

Anonymous said...

So the first two were to support HBM's assertion, but now I'll focus on mine, and that is that people are actually less likely to divorce in BAD times, cuz as you all know, its not like they have a place to go.

I know its counter-intuitive, but its true.

***

Divorce rates may drop during economic downturn
KOAA, CO - Nov 19, 2008
Other local attorneys say divorce is recession-proof. Money problems often lead to divorce -- and a tough economy means more of them. ...

Anonymous said...

Like most things, what most people tend to believe is usually wrong.

***

Divorce rates may drop during economic downturn

Story By: Abby Lane
Source: KOAA
25 day(s) ago

A bad economy may decrease divorce rates. A survey by a group of the country's top divorce lawyers found fewer people file in an economic downtown.

“Divorce is an expensive proposition,” said Tom Davis, a family law attorney in Colorado Springs. Filing fees can be several hundred dollars, and thousands of dollars for a retainer. For a family also facing a tightening budget, he says, divorce may take a backseat. “I think families find that the reality of finances when they do get divorced having to maintain two households is going to cost more than having to maintain one household,” he said.
Other local attorneys say divorce is recession-proof. Money problems often lead to divorce -- and a tough economy means more of them. However, the American Academy of Matrimonial Trial Lawyers, a group of leading divorce attorneys, found nationally many people postpone divorce during national economic downturns.

“I think economic hardship can actually be a time to pull a family together,” said Bill Maier, a clinical psychologist at Focus on the Family where calls for help at their counseling department are up. He says tension within a family can often worsen during an economic crisis, and couples should work together and communicate openly about money.

“If you're not, if there's any secrecy or duplicity what you're going to find is that that will really exacerbate the issues that are already at hand,” he said.

Anonymous said...

When I picked it up, I almost hit myself in the face with it--that's how unexpectedly light it was. Not that I was in any danger--it would have felt like a feather.

*

I pick up & read a BULL like once a month, hell I read every issue of the SORE ( Did you hear that HBM?? ).

I'm really surprised that so many of you get & read the BULL, I'll take one day of WSJ and learn more than 3-months of daily BULL.

The SORE is actually FUNNY, those fuckers must be laughing their ass off when they write that shit, but the BULL its not even funny, its pathetic.

tim said...

It's possible these ones I'm seeing are just the final bubble divorces then. ;-)

Anonymous said...

PORTLAND is Aspen TODAY. it's 23 out, and I just did a six-mile run on my lunch hour. Take that, socalis.

tim said...

>>I'm really surprised that so many of you get & read the BULL, I'll take one day of WSJ and learn more than 3-months of daily BULL.

The Bulletin has always been fascinating to me. Remember on the old blog I used to mention how many pages of real estate ads there were every Saturday.

It was 28 pages for the longest time.

Anonymous said...

I can foresee the day, when your going to have to fall back to old editions of the BULL, if you want more BULL, don't throw them away.

It's going to go the way of the Bend Condo(r).

Anonymous said...

It's possible these ones I'm seeing are just the final bubble divorces then. ;-)

*

Yes, exactly remember this shit takes years, and even in 2006/2007 idiots were still on the bubble from their CALI sale BUYING into the BEND perpetual money tree.

In order to really see this 'recession divorce' factor, you need to be at about 2012 when you start seeing the divorces from 2010 move through the system.

I really buy that argument that these people have no where to GO.

I know a BUNCH of REHO's up at BT that were single over the past 2-3 years, and they have all been foreclosed, cuz the money ran out on the divorce and they couldn't make payments, when they came here they really thought that the HELOC was forever, like diamonds.

Anonymous said...

A HELOC was forever, like diamonds.

*

I like that it has a ring to it, so fucking Bend.

Never a town with so many stupid fucking people.

The greatest fool theory is really about BEND, all these people really thought that someone dumber than them would come here and do what they did, and it would go on forever.

Anonymous said...

I know ALL your kunts use login names so you can delete shit you write, as anon or temp-name doesn't support that, but we really need more people to use temp-names so they don't get tagged no follow by dick-head nazi homer.

We need fresh blood for this debate, and the only way we can get it is if these blog-comments get indexed by google, and its not going to happen if you KUNTS keep using these logged in names.

Anonymous said...

HBM,

I think its all counter-intuitive because its irrational, but remember its irrational for a REHO COUGAR at 55 yrs old to pay for a fake butt, fake tits, and a face-lift; But they do these things, I'm sure in your circle you see none of this shit.

They divorce en-masse in good times cuz they can, in bad times, I don't know what the fuck they do.

HBM, go hang out at the Martini Bar, or Merenda, or Astro Lounge, and get to know the real new Bend, and see irrational and counter-intuitive human behavior first hand.

Only in good times can a divorce settle the kind of cash for these surgerys to justify the REHO making the cougar transformation.

I know this is heavy shit, but your a smart old devil.

Anonymous said...

On the divorce debate I have outlined the woman side, I think I'll make the mention of the MAN side, as I need a nap, having done the ski today 11-1pm, and need the nap prior to hoofing to the Dechutes for BIG MONDAY, I must HOOF, cuz if I drive I can only do two pints, but if I walk then I can slip on ice and feel no pain, and drink 3-4 pints, ... :>

OK, so I know a ton of guys, mostly contractors that had their old ladys leave them post 2002, when times were good, usually just after their first BIG deal, the first time they ever had money as a couple and whats wifey doing? She fucking bails and takes, 1/2 (or more), then what?? We'll then she gets the Tumalo hobby farm, and all the toyz, and she becomes a cougar and MAGIC, she has a young-stuf living with her on the farm!!!

So I have these beer bud's, and its always the same line, "There's another guy enjoying my POND, my HOME, my SHIT,..." Yeh, lifes a bitch I remind them. Man, I have seen this story so many times post 2002, and thus APU your right, this shit takes years to work through.

Who would have guessed that if a BUILDER comes to BEND, and wins the BEND-LOTTERY, that honey-pie, would become REHO-COUGAR??? Hormones?? Most these guys working SO fucking hard doing these deals, they certainly didn't want to fuck after 12hr/days 2002->2004, ... maybe honey-pie was attention starved, but that's how it all transpired in BEND.

APU calls it BEND-KARMA, and he's absolutely correct. You simply can't move here, and dive into your work, and leave the little attention starved little wife alone, because the rest of us desert rats will fuck her brains out!!!

Welcome to BEND.

Anonymous said...

On a positive note from our sponsor over at BEBB, $81/sq-ft, Do I hear $49/sq-ft???

262 NW Outlook Vista Dr Bend, OR 97702 Listing Price: $245,000

3,000sqft $81.67 per foot.


Look out below!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Those Outlook Vista houses (none of them are custom) started around $250k and peaked at around $610k. I think $225k might be a common sale point for them in 2009.

Anonymous said...

I think the commenter at BEBB was correct, find the lot value, and then add in $7.48 for the value of a MORRISSETTE CRAP-SHACK, then integrate, and determine the true value.

That said, what is vertical lot up there worth, especially given that everytime it rains they lose 10% of their top-soil.

BEND KLUSTER-FUCK WHATS IT REALLY WORTH??? WE KNOW THE VALUE OF THE BUILDING, BUT WHATS THE VALUE OF THE LOT??

ANY COMPS FOR THOSE LOTS THESE DAYS??

Anonymous said...

Good new renters, the luv-guv has announced today that if you landlord doesn't make payment you can stay.

If you bought the house, and your owner-occupied your fucked.

I love ameriKKKa.

The fact that the Woodburn bomber got all his toyz form BEND is now national news today, ... Remember KUNTS that SAND-POINT-IDAHO, HOME of FUHRMAN ( rodney king ) is our sister city.

Real Bruce said...

Re: Outlook Vista

Isn't that Comfort Heating & Cooling, one of the commercial spaces in that row?

BTW, Buster has a point on the no-follow, i.e. new name.

Anonymous said...

>>Good new renters, the luv-guv has announced today that if you landlord doesn't make payment you can stay.

I know some cases in town where the owner is not paying to the bank, but the renter is paying to the owner.

In this case, what should the renter do? Keep paying the owner until the bank officially has the house?

Anonymous said...

>>Isn't that Comfort Heating & Cooling, one of the commercial spaces in that row?

What do you mean? Skyliner Summit is all residential.

Anonymous said...

Isn't that Comfort Heating & Cooling, one of the commercial spaces in that row?

*

BP WTF are you talking about??

Remember some of us are old.

Anonymous said...

262 NW Outlook Vista Dr Bend, OR 97702

*

BP, go to google, then click map, and enter the above, this is that shit that overlooks SUMMIT HIGH all this shit is on a HILL, and all their TOPSOIL is gone, and all the houses are surrounded by SAND-BAGS 24/7, these lots, you have to PAY somebody to take them.

bruce said...

Re: If you bought the house, and your owner-occupied your fucked.

### Dumb fuck (AGAIN) Fannie said back on Nov. 20 that owner occupants get to stay, too.

Sometimes you make sense, and other times you are just fucking out there.

But, hey, you are always entertaining. Just like that guy who threw his shoes at W. That was flat out the funniest thing I've seen in years. And getting real big, postive, play in most of the world, other than Fox/AP land.

Anonymous said...

What do you mean? Skyliner Summit is all residential.

*

Remember BP just got off the bus from UTAH,

Anonymous said...

But, hey, you are always entertaining.

*

I love you too, whenever I need a laugh I just picture you in those funny underwear with the baldhead, and no front teeth.

Bend fuckable you are.

bruce said...

Re: BP, go to google, then click map, and enter the above

###

I see where it is now, kitty corner from Summit. Up towards where Pete Wilkerson lived.

Haven't been in there for awhile, so don't know about the drainage situation. Seems awfully high end for that sq ft offer. Another market point, aiming down.

I was thinking of those places up off Shevlin Park, on Reserve Camp.

Anonymous said...

Outlook Vista is an "L" shape. Half the L is on a hill, half not.

Half the "L" backs to Mt. Washington and half backs to Skyliner. Mostly they are packed right next to each other.

Anonymous said...

>>Seems awfully high end for that sq ft offer. Another market point, aiming down.

Picture giant empty box.

bruce said...

Yeah, and I picture you in 1970's REI gear slowly skinning up Sunshine. Convinced you are the best skier on the mountain, so don't get in my fucking way.

But hey, at least you get your dick wet at home enough to keep things kosher. That's good.

Anonymous said...

Haven't been in there for awhile, so don't know about the drainage situation. Seems awfully high end for that sq ft offer. Another market point, aiming down.

*

There's a side-walk along skyliner right below them as your heading into town from the wash-park circle, if you look up, you'll see that every-home is sandbagged. Folks with money have place ripp-rapp between the homes and below, but sadly most folks have no money.

Another RUN DON'T WALK FROM BEND-ORYGUN.

That's a service we could do here for folks, anytime, just post a fucking address.

This is why I prefer the sweet cottages around deschutes pub, at least the fucking soil doesn't walk away, well it does, but differently.

Even in the flat-lands the rain carry's away the PUMMY, but shit, these place up on the hillsides, I'm surprised they haven't slid down 'YET'.

bruce said...

I was always amazed at how packed in the McMansions were up by Outlook Vista. One of the worst of the worst.

Real Bruce said...

Christ, I try to comment in a follow-friendly way, and get kicked right back...

Anonymous said...

I think 3 Outlook Vista houses have shown up as preforeclosure in the last few months. Maybe this is one of them?

Anonymous said...

Yeah, and I picture you in 1970's REI gear slowly skinning up Sunshine.

*

Nope very old fart, old enough to be your grandpa, and don't compare myself to others never did, never will. My only comment is being terrified of being ran over by board-heads.

Today I just went up to Swede Ridge from Skyline, too fucking cold to drive up to MT-B.

I just feel like shit if I don't get out and breath the fresh air everyday.

Gear? Try 1950's thats the best. I wish REI still sold 1970's gear. I hate this disposable plastic gear that everyone sells now.

I think tomorrow will be excellent, a little warmer, and no wind.

Anonymous said...

I was always amazed at how packed in the McMansions were up by Outlook Vista. One of the worst of the worst.

*

See that's the same problem with NWXC across the street from their 'view'.

You can't put crapshacks that close together up there with the pummy powder top-soil, it just melts away, with the homes five-feet apart all the water run's between them live a river in any rain,

BP when the snow is gone, go walk on that side of the street under them and see the hay, and stuff they have to minimize soil loss, and go walk around the undeveloped areas of NWXC and see the HUGE fucking ravines from just minimal rain.

Like the high-school you know, they lost their whole fucking soil under the grass, and just spent $6M rebuilding the football field. They went back and did right.

All of NWXC, and 'outlook vista' skyliner-village or whatever they called it is like that movie "POLTERGIEST", sometime its all going to slide or dissapear into a sink-hole, partly location, but mostly cuz the homes were TOO FUCKING CLOSE TOGETHER.

Real Bruce said...

Re: My only comment is being terrified of being ran over by board-heads.

###

The hardest I've ever gotten hit, by someone else, is coming off the tram on my board. Day off, good pow, and some fucking asshole on skis decides to take me out. Missed grabbing him by that much...

How's the snow up around Swede? Deep enough to feel somewhat safe?

I have some old fishscale things I've been wanting to go poke around on.

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