I am an Olympics Junkie.
Now you know.
When the Olympics are on, I can do little else than pee, eat, sleep, and watch the Olympics. I can barely form coherent sentence, I show up to work in a sleep-deprived fog, I sometimes don't shower for days.
Why do I have this problem? I don't watch football, baseball, or basketball, or any other professional sport, except on rare occasion. I think watching sports on TV is actually pretty lame.
But I can't help but enjoy what are for the most part, fairly regular-World people, gather together & compete in events that largely define these peoples entire lives. It's really more a real-World drama than sport.
And I don't have a particular favorite sport, person, or team that I am watching, or cheering for. I like ALL of it, I like watching everyone, winners & losers alike. American TV is naturally slanted wildly towards American athletes, so it's hard to get unbiased coverage on this or any broadcast really.
And the Olympics have been sort of commercialized & overrun with "Pros" like Kobe, etc., who you KNOW are going to win. Even the Grama swimmer Dara Torres employs a small scale army to get her in shape. This is probably my least favorite thing about watching the modern Olympics. Too commercial, and loaded with country-switching Pros. Yuk.
But I still love watching. I remember watching the US beat the Ruskies in 1980, one of a precious few things that stays with me after that many years. I remember watching & thinking, "I am watching a historic moment here, and it'll be recounted till I am dead".
And it was. And it is still easily the Greatest Thing I have ever seen on a TV screen. Maybe that's when I contracted this addiction.
Anyway, if you've wondered here I've been, I've been glued to my TV. Can't help it, and I offer no apologies. OK? Sorry.
So it may be for a week or two that you guys have to carry the day. I'm going to try to limit my Olympic fever to a few hours a day. Try.
OK, that said, I busted out of my myopic Bend-addled fog last week, and went for a long drive last week in points beyond.
And I guess it was curious to see this RE problem from a different perspective. I figured it was at it's worst here, and existed in far milder versions elsewhere.
No. Well, yes & no. It is damn bad here. But it is Really Bad All Over.
The truly strange thing that caught me off-guard was the "Commercial Development" seller. You know, because Bend is absolutely chucked full of them: The useless hunk of ground, butt-ugly, too ugly for homes in fact, in some semi-industrial Death Zone, with a For Sale sign on it declaring it fit for "Commercial Development".
My God, this sort of thing is EVERYWHERE. It's along empty highways, next to schools, in neighborhoods, everywhere.
I saw several worthless plots declared fit for Commercial Development in some of the most bizarre places. Empty grasslands, with not a soul for miles. It's like these people paid a few hundred bucks for scrub MORE USELESS than the badlands East of Bend, and all of a sudden decided that it's worth $2,000,000.
Of course none of it is selling, you can tell by the weathered appearance of the signs. This stuff has been for sale for a few years.
And then there is the VAST inventory of acreage properties. I guess living in Bend, and watching the stratospheric take-off of acreage properties made me think there is some sort of shortage, or groundswell in demand for these properties.
No. Well, there may be decent demand, but there is a wave of supply. And it seems to be the same root cause. People either HAVE TO sell for some reason, or there is a gold-rush mentality to it. They think they can get 10-20 fold what they paid a few years ago.
I suppose it was just strange to see that Bend is not that different. We do have a lot for sale, but the problem is far larger than I have ever seen it. I got a new appreciation for how mired in a quagmire the nations RE market is.
It's hard to see how large the problem is until you actually lay eyes on the hundreds & thousands of properties that are out there, and are clearly not moving. Bend is not alone in its inventory problem.
Oy, now for the tech-dregs. I got this from Buster or one of his clones:
BESIDES it being fucking stupid, the CUNT must spend ALL his time looking at the fucking analytic data points, but then again, he's a fucking MBA, he can spreadsheet this generated data, and beat-off.
Note one of the worst that HOME-BOY has enabled is urchin, this SHIT is really NO fucking different than what BENDBB does, its just that homer gets away with it like HBM says, about the masses BEING FUCKING STOOOPID.
...
127.0.0.1 imageads2.googleadservices.com
127.0.0.1 imageads3.googleadservices.com
127.0.0.1 imageads4.googleadservices.com
As I thought, this are /etc/hosts entries so that certain domains go to your local loopback address. This is perfectly fine with me. Disable any or all src or href attributes you want, that is fine with me.
You'll find, if you take the time to View Source & search for the above terms ("googleadservices", for instance), you'll find they don't exist on this site.
I'll go one better: Go find an anonymous proxy somewhere & only surf this or other "suspicious" sites using anon-proxy. I'd give you the one I use to surf BendBB, but then it'd be banned... this happens on occasion when they figure out that they are not getting your real IP.
So go ahead & mislead, redirect & generally fuck with the system, it's all good with me. Some of these comments seem to imply that I give a shit about the identity of commenters. I have no unilateral way to convince anyone unambiguously that is not true, but I can urge you to take measures to keep your identity private.
There also seems to be this implication that I somehow "profit" from posting youtube, or other "off-site" crap on here.
Oh yes, I shall soon retire on the vast wealth I am accumulating from my youtube embedded videos. Oh yes. I'm really watching the money pile up from that. That & the craigslist RSS feeds. Woof. You have no idea how many mansions & Lamborghinis that has paid for.
OK, now for the non-borderline schizo's: OK, I just blog for my own enjoyment. I don't make dink, I DO have googles Urchin web analytics on the home page, something I check about never. I looked after I got "Pat-dotted", and got many thousands of hits out of nowhere. But that's about it. I don't care about IP's. I don't censor based on the offensiveness of anything. Hell, I encouraged people to go look at BendBB's "outting" post, cuz I knew that'd be gone before long.
This is just a little blog for posting what Bend media won't regarding Bend RE, and business in general. That's it.
I agree with the commenter, "Only the paranoid survive", and if you feel you are being "outted" here, you can modify your /etc/hosts file, or surf this site anon proxy. I NEVER go to BendBB except via anon proxy because it has been made clear via IP-banning policy that he IS keeping track of IP's over there. I HATE that.
This thing is meant to be open, free, yet respect individual privacy. So I am more about obfuscating your identity than anyone. Type "free anonymous proxy" into google, and find one you like, and bookmark it.
We ALL have a duty to Stick It to The Man in this regard.
Speaking of Sticking It To the Man, it seems the Al Haig moment sprouted some other Bend RE-bubble blogs.
http://benddenial.blogspot.com/
Of course it is impossible for me to assert anything absolutely about who is doing what, but this appears to be a site fired up by our own dearest marge! Good going marge. Keep it up, and feel free to copy/paste stuff over here, URL's and all.
http://angrybendbitch.blogspot.com/
OK, I think this was started by Buster-Clones, as some sort of marge-proxy weirdness. Seems they didn't post since last March, until recently. This one is good if only for the horrible picture on the sidebar.
The top one is classic Cali-Banger. My Lord. That is a real person, not animated horror. And almost certainly of Cali origin.
http://bendbubble3.blogspot.com/
Yup, this one is pretty good, featuring Post WWII apocalyptic pics. Anyone know who this is? Buster? In my Olympics-addled state, I'm finding it hard to keep up.
Anyway, I've been saying for some time that I am all for someone else taking over the reins (reigns?) of this thing, so that we can get a new perspective. I hope one or all of these blogs does well, and someone can take the lead on the Bend RE issue.
My primary objective has been "outting" Bend media as horribly slanted towards Bend RE, to the point of simply being PR whores. Some have not sold out so entirely. But if they are big & in broadcast or print, they almost certainly have.
Finally, before I head back to Olyimpificating my life:
tim said:
I thought we had seasonally peaked on inventory a couple weeks ago (like every other year), but looking at Clive's chart, I'm beginning to wonder if 2008 doesn't mark the emergence of a new kind of desperate late-summer seller.
anon said:
Could be we hit the sweet spot in GREATEST FOOL THEORY, remember it was supposed to come back for two years no. I think that all but the BEND-DEAD know its NOT coming back, sell now while you have a prayer, that is what's going on.
Yeah, I'm starting to question the validity of many Long Held Beliefs regarding the Bend RE market. Used to be you listed early Spring, sold in the Summer, and hibernate in the Winter. Easy, predictable.
But we're entering a new phase here: Forced Selling. People are not going broke according to the seasons around here. And if you go to RealtyTrac.com, you'll see that foreclosures are what is fueling the local market. NOT the seasons.
I figured the local inventory situation would look like a fairly gently rising sine wave, higher peaks & higher valleys. But I'm wondering if the coming valley fails to really materialize. And turns into more of a flat plateau. And next year begins a new wave up from there.
This market is coming apart. It's hard to even predict things that have held for decades, like Bends yearly cyclicality. It think it'll remain, but it'll flatten & ramp up into a monotonic rising wave.
My own view of the RE market outside Bend tells me that NO ONE is coming here to save us. They CANNOT sell what they have. As blindly myopic as I thought Bend sellers were, the rest of the country is pretty close. EVERYONE in this country is selling, or trying to, and they are not succeeding.
The RE market seems well & truly screwed for many, many years.
One more quick thing:
Rent & Invest The Difference still rolls on as my favorite investment theme for Bend.
There were occasional cries of "Invest in what?" several months ago, a legitimate question.
Hopefully, I've answered this criticism. I DO NOT believe RE is a prudent investment for what may well be the rest of my working life. Medians would have to fall to parity with rents for me to become interested, and we're NOT EVEN CLOSE.
Bonds, whether gov't or corporate, are an unknown quantity. Read the comments and you can see that these things are based on the re-payment capacity of some very marginal borrowers. And I believe there will be a cascading effect that we haven't even seen the beginning of.
And as Buster said, Price Ain't The Problem. Banks are ONLY loaning to FICO 800, 75% LTV, pristine borrowers. That's a rare bird these days, and getting rarer. No one borrowing, no one loaning, and everyone throwing around homes like hot potatoes, dropping prices to no avail.
It Ain't Price. We are tapped out or BK as a country. Every last dollar that could be borrowed, was borrowed and now we're coming to find that we can't pay it back.
It'll take a few more years, but RE will hit & drag bottom for a few years. But don't buy it yet.
Personally, I plowed into some spec stocks in July, and am doing OK. I think stocks are the Last Bastion of Safety, which is just strange. Stocks have traditionally been the Flight FROM Safety investment when things get uncertain.
But the usual Flight TO Safety instruments (bonds of all maturities) are suspect. The Full Faith & Credit of the US is now MORTGAGE BACKED. OK, WHY we are BUYING this crap is beyond me. Bear Stearns gets KILLED in the mortgage-backed market & the US Gov't decides NOW is the time to JUMP INTO THE MORTGAGE MARKET.
I don't get it. The outcome seems simple: INFLATION. More specifically, STAGFLATION.
We will print our way "out of this thing". Of course this NEVER WORKS. And maybe sometime I can show graphically why I think that as interest rates go up, stocks actually become the Best Investment Bet.
OK, so I must now return to my butt-cheek carved place on the couch, and watch the Olympics. I promise I'll try to comment more this week, and actually dedicate a brain cell or two to thoughts of RE and the like.
But meanwhile.... Phelps awaits.
387 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 387 of 387 Newer› Newest»Well, Mollie Hogan, who went to Bend High with my daughter, used to work in real estate and is now a professional hula hoop instructor. No kidding.
http://obsidianstock.com/talk/category/good-news/
3rd pic down. I know who my next RE agent is.
Looks like Bend's Business Darling, PV Powered, is laying off employees...
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Yes, soon the only jobs in Bend, will be high-paying PR&MARKETING jobs.
Best time 20 year to work a crowd.
What a stupid idea PV Solar on a remote desert island, in a time of historically maximum transportation costs.
It wasn't just Cali's that were sold a bill-of-goods, it businessmen all over the country that were sold Bend.
Note the smart one was LesSchwab, "Yea, we'll build a campus in Bend, but on our terms", Guess What? Les Schwab got the city to pay over $10M.
If your going to start a biz in BEND, force the city-hall to give it all up front in CASH, because that's all your ever going to get in terms of business ROI from being here. Once you start operations in BEND all expenses will be 2-4X of any where else.
Thus city-hall should subsidize ALL BEND business, in order that they can compete. Now there's an idea, city-hall provides every employer with $14k/yr per person to help subsidize wages. We're rich, anything is possible in Bend.
Regarding PV-Solar, like the Atlantic-Monthly article said months ago in regards to Bubbles. They only works when you have PR&MARKETING, EASY-MONEY, and TAX-INCENTIVES.
PV like BEND itself has lost easy-money, and tax-incentives have been pulled from the table, solar-panels don't need a tax incentive, that's like putting a tax credit buying ice-cream. Solar Panels have been around for years, they work, and they pay for themselves. The PV lobby would love the tax-credits to create a new bubble, but the piggy bank is broke.
Without tax incentives and easy money, PV is-was finished.
Bend is now a pariah, much like our own prez twisted-little-shrub BUSH, nobody wants to lobby for BEND(PV), and nobody wants to be seen near Bush. A loser is a loser, and BEND is a loser. From #1 winner the past years, to #1 loser today.
Its as American as apple pie to treat a loser as a leper, welcome to the real Bend, Oregon.
IHTBYB, you off watching long legs in short shorts jumping up and down right now?
Have you seen Steve Carell's promo piece on Womens Volleyball... it's good.
And yes I am.
Homer,
Like Lancair, the only type of manufacturing that really works near Bend is when you can have people do piecework in their homes with toxic chemicals that are illegal to sell over the counter in urban States.
Thus Bend has played the third world country angle.
Years ago when Intel first came to Hillsboro they did so for three reasons. First was inexhaustible cheap water which is essential to the process. Second was cheap white labor, e.g. english speaking. Last was inexpensive housing.
Today of course all chipper's are leaving Oregon, our water is polluted and/or gone, our white-labor force is meth'd out, and the bubble made housing cali-expensive.
The only manufacturing advantage that Bend still has is lack of oversight by DEQ, & OSHA.
Eventually there will be terrible health problems resulting from the non-professional use of toxic chemicals used to produce composite airplanes in 'shacks' around Bend, for the Lancair 'piecework business model'.
A less expensive downtown emerges
A great article on why downtown should consist 115% of restaurants.
We are dangerously low on restaurants downtown, there being several vacant spaces that do not have a Subway yet.
Today of course all chipper's are leaving Oregon, our water is polluted and/or gone, our white-labor force is meth'd out, and the bubble made housing cali-expensive.
Any employers that can fog a mirror KNOWS that they will "indirectly" pay their employees mortgage.
That alone makes Bend a employer pariah for years to come. We'll see employer outflow forever, especially after we go broke providing tax incentives at huge taxpayer expense.
Brucey...
Have you talked to this Sonia gal recently?
Does this woman realize she is going to be scapegoated soon for the financial implosion of this town?
I just can't believe we are being driven towards financial oblivion, and the finance person at the helm doesn't realize she will be the sacrificial lamb for the incompetent boobery of Bends City Council.
I would expect her to resign soon, if she has any brains whatsoever. She is on a rapidly sinking ship, something she should know better than anyone.
There are a few more hours left to enjoy a typical day in Central Oregon. With the dark of night comes the moon and stars. The dim light creates silhouettes of the Three Sisters and Broken Top standing guard over the city. The river shimmers and reflects shadows of trees and buildings as it flows quietly under bridges and winds through Bend´s historic neighborhoods. Imagine an old mill worker and his grand children enjoying the summer evening. Over on Wall and Bond streets, pedestrians stroll along the sidewalks in the still warm air. A few locals can be seen heading to their cars after an extended happy hour. (Could it be Friday night?) The dark sky is a kaleidoscope of colorful constellations and brilliant stars, and when the meteor showers of August arrive, the sky will become alive with streaks of light so vivid and clear, chills will rundown your spine. But you know there is one more event to come. You can see a sliver of the eastern horizon turn from black to rose to orange to blue. For a few minutes your breath becomes visible and drifts away resembling a small cloud. Now the crisp morning air ushers in a new day on the High Desert ...
But what about THE UNICORNS? You didn't say anything about THE UNICORNS!
>>3rd pic down. I know who my next RE agent is.
And I know who my next hula hoop instructor is!
Imagine an old mill worker and his grand children enjoying the summer evening.
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You can go to gilchrist, or crescent today, and see second generation laid off loggers ( 34 yr old grand-pa ), enjoying the eve with children.
My how the realtors want to make living in a mill-shack owned by a company town, in the Brooks-Hixson days sound like paradise. A company town is a company town, and most of Bend's lumber was liquidated in a few years.
Real Estate is local.
That one sentence alone tells me the writer is full of crap. Real estate might once have been local, but not anymore, especially when it comes to Bend real estate. The real estate business here depends on pulling in buyers from out of the area (because the locals can't afford our home prices) and financial conditions elsewhere in the country influence the availability and the cost of money for borrowers.
Homer and Tim: You should be ashamed, ya old leches! (But, yeah, Mollie is pretty cute.)
And even if Real Estate were still local, the mortgage industry is not.
A less expensive downtown emerges
A great article on why downtown should consist 115% of restaurants.
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What about all the Salons? Bend Metro-Sexual (BENDBB) anal-wipe centers? Dar's one every other front downtown, are they gone already?
I know the food joints fail daily, but all those Salons, just tend to keep going, people who live to have a well preserved corpse will spend money on Salon's even during a recession you know?
I think in Bend, that's the bellwether to watch, we know 'bends rich' will shop&dine @ costco/walmart, thus the diners will fail, but the REHO's, the REHO's they'll keep the salons flooded until VISA/MC goes BK.
And even if Real Estate were still local, the mortgage industry is not.
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A local broker told me last night, that Bend's banks are about to do a total lock-down to prevent future loss.
The non-performing of Bend's assets is said to go astro, so short term, they just want to prevent adding new bad loans to the books.
So, yes Bend RE is local, and if you got CASH $$$ you can BUY BEND RE all day long,
Cash you play, otherwise you walk.
Remember there was the stock bubble, real-estate bubble, and now the energy-bubble.
They have played the corn game for what its worth, and the Solar scam was all built on tax credits.
I have said all along here get a $300 panel, a $5 charge-controller, borrow a 12v battery, and get a 2k-watt HF inverter, and your off the grid. DYI.
But let's look at the solar scam. Your borrow $15k for a system, and get a $2k tax credit, nothing down. So you got this $200/mo bill for ten years, and theory is/was at the end you electricity is FREE. Up front you got $2k from uncle same. The builder got $15k in Biz, for about $1k in parts, everybody MADE MONEY.
Trouble is now its real money, $15k, banks don't loan, and nobody has down. Most people have figured out that the 'life' of the equipment ain't even ten-years, so much for free power for life on the sales scam.
SOLAR is a ponzi racket like all others, unless you do it yourself and cheap, panel life is 7 years +- a little, battery life is 3 years, and thus even at my cost estimate of $500 for a home-brew system, you talking about $8/mo, but then consider all the time fucking with wires, and propane refer's, and water pumps, and water tanks, and solar-hot-water black pipes on the roof. What's your time worth?
For the PRO system, lets take typical $20k, less the $2k tax credit, $18k for 84 months, that is a cost of $214/mo, instead of $25/mo, or basically 10X for what??
Yes, these kinds of ponzi scams need tax-incentives without them, the greatest-fool-theory collapses in nano-seconds.
Does this woman realize she is going to be scapegoated soon for the financial implosion of this town?
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BP "Sonya, did you know Bend is going to BK"
Sonya "Who would have guessed"
HBM "Bend is going to BK"
COSTA "Who would have guessed"
The script is already written Homer.
Sonya will get a golden-parachute, and we'll pay the bill, the gal was a good soldier, and will be taken care of.
Real Estate is local.
That one sentence alone tells me the writer is full of crap.
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The old chicago POL once said "All politics is local".
This is like saying, home is where you sleep.
Yes, a house is local.
Why does this statement bother you HBM, just two days ago you said all Bend boss-hogg bend-bubble orchestration could be reduced to "STUPID".
This REHO is saying ALL BEND IS LOCAL, just like the POL.
Like the blind-men and the elephant, your all partially right, but all completely wrong.
part 2 of NPR's amenity migration story is on-line:
Morning Edition, August 20, 2008 · Around the country, more Americans are living where they want to, not where they have to. They're making new lives for themselves by the beach, in the mountains, in college towns.
Inevitably, these new residents are changing their new hometowns, making them more expensive places to live. And it can be hard for the original residents to keep up.
listen to or read the rest here:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=93769999
I would expect her to resign soon, if she has any brains whatsoever. She is on a rapidly sinking ship, something she should know better than anyone.
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Go where Homee? Where are the jobs? She's got a cozy GOVERNMENT JOB, which is way better in BEND to have then any fucking private sector job.
MBO's ( municipal CDO's ) are still trading at bond action, Bend hasn't even started to BORROW when you compare the potential to do so!
I really think that they're GOING TO DO AN ORANGE-COUNTY BK in BEND. This is going to BE BIG, they only got to milk the cow another two years until bottom, time flys quickly.
HBM says they're 'stupid', I think they're exactly on plan, and tune, and orchestration.
"Best time to hock a city in 20 years".
I still say that soon or within a year, the city will be buying HOLLERN inventory for low-income-housing at to dollar, well before the BK. Then it will burst, and HOLLERN will have a shell LLC buy it back for penny's on the dollar, this is how its always played in the past.
Sonya is a player, they wouldn't have had her there this long if she weren't, and besides look at the resume. "I FIXED BEND, the #1 RE fuck in the USA", she has nothing to lose by working through the shit. She obviously enjoys BP's stupid rhetorical questions.
You got to be a Machiavellian to be even 100 yards of city-hall Homer. All these fuck-heads know exactly the game plan.
HBM says their stupid, I say not, you don't churn Billions of dollars by being stupid.
Inevitably, these new residents are changing their new hometowns, making them more expensive places to live. And it can be hard for the original residents to keep up.
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Kind of a reverse Steinbeck "Grapes of Wrath".
But note these are the remaining easy-stock year high-tech money, and they're not getting 10%/yr.
They'll all return in time to ma&pa, and the rural folk who stick it out will be back to where they were before, albeit with higher taxes.
It's interesting that OPS (national petroleum radio) makes a big deal on a 10+ year old trend. Retiring young, but not having the cash to survive until old age.
The question is why now? Why are they telling us now? When in fact today they're leaving Bend quicker than they're coming.
More financial extremes in our brave new banking world.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/08/m3-contraction-future-is-now.html
The Telegraph is reporting Sharp US money supply contraction points to Wall Street crunch ahead.
The US money supply has experienced the sharpest contraction in modern history, heightening the risk of a Wall Street crunch and a severe economic slowdown in coming months.
Data compiled by Lombard Street Research shows that the M3 ''broad money" aggregates fell by almost $50bn (£26.8bn) in July, the biggest one-month fall since modern records began in 1959. "Monthly data for July show that the broad money growth has almost collapsed," said Gabriel Stein, the group's leading monetary economist.
FYI,
February 2008. Sold SFR's, Bend was 56. The properties (as DIAL shows) that sold for less than purchase totaled 7.
In July 2008 of 105 sold SFR's in Bend 27 were sold for less than the purchase price.
Umpqua Bank files NOD on ASPEN TREE HOMES LLC for $4.1+ Mil.
Another one bites the dust. Better put up a Suicide Watch List.
Unfortunately I don't think there is a way to see how many sales are coming in with negative equity.
One person I know just sold his house and had to bring $15k to the table. Looking at DIAL he sold it for more than he bought it for, but those darn HELOCs and realtor fees.
Another person I know just got an offer on his house for $3k less than what he owes, not including realtor fees. He had taken out his HELOC to actually improve the property and not to vacation or get a boat.
There is some guy who last summer got a "screaming deal" on a property on the 1400 block of Elgin - $219k. Looks like they spent a TON of cash on a remodel, of a 976 sq foot 2br/1ba that is now on the market for $329k FSBO. It was tear-down quality when it was purchased. When it finally does sell it may show a slight increase in DIAL, but no way are they going to make money on it.
I wish there were a way to find out the debt to sales price info. Any ideas?
>>with the exception of marge, women have never lasted more than a few days here.
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How do you know for sure that Marge, or any other poster, is a woman??
Hm?
One thing I've been noticing on the NODs is huge time gaps between when the last payment was received and when the NOD was filed.
Yesterday I saw a new one for Robert Butler - a name with a lot of NODs last winter. It looks like the last time he paid on this property was JUNE 2007. It goes to Auction Dec 22. That's over 18 months between last payment and foreclosure.
Same with a Martinez property a few weeks ago - July 2007, auction Dec. Loretta Sayers - May 2007, auction Dec.
It is frightening how many people may have stopped paying and have not had NODs filed yet.
Oh, but that's right - Short sales and foreclosures will soon decline and Sellers will be less likely to take just any offer.
Sorry. Nevermind. Everything will be fine.
Check out the awesome dividend yield on Freddie Mac.
"How do you know for sure that Marge, or any other poster, is a woman??"
Cant' you tell by my picture? that I am woman!
Hey! There's a comment one one of the Bulletin's articles. It's a request to clarify a sentence in the article.
After several days with no comments, things are really picking up over there.
It looks like the last time he paid on this property was JUNE 2007. It goes to Auction Dec 22. That's over 18 months between last payment and foreclosure.
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yep, I mentioned this to all you folks over two years ago, in Orygun it takes forever to kick you out, after you quit paying payment, on average historically about 1-2 years. Plenty of time to get your little to no down-payment back in lieu of rent.
How do you know for sure that Marge, or any other poster, is a woman??
Hm?
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Ned speculates she ain't, but 'she' sure has been having fun! It's not our sally, as our marge really couldn't write a complete sentence when she came aboard.
Who really cares? She dumps good RE dope. She knows Bend pre 1990's. She adds value to the debate.
We have seen her razor-clams!
I wish there were a way to find out the debt to sales price info. Any ideas?
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The only public record is the original deed, which lists the primary and the amount they borrowed. Thus if you go to county records and pull the tax lot, and see what the lien is, and assume that 90% of ALL BEND RE deals post 2002 were zero or almost zero down, and interest only, you can assume that what the borrowed is what they owe. If there are seconds it will also be listed on the lien notice.
Your never going to know the actual amount the 'owe' with interest and payments to date, that would be private banking information. That said, if your a bank, you can pull up their credit-report, which shows the amount owed to date, but that info is strictly controlled these days anybody other than law enforcement or banks.
Homer,
Think about how Orygun works.
Whether it be PDX or Bend its the same.
In PDX on every RE cycle at the peak Homer-Williams ( BrokenTop originator ) sells high-density apartments to city for low-income housing. At bottom of cycle homer buys them back for penny's on the dollar. Homer has made 100's of millions over the years on this cyclic process.
Then here in Bend its the same, this cycle the city-hall is talking endlessly about affordable-housing, thus the city will buy HOLLERN excess inventory at top 2006 or near value. Then post BK Hollern will buy it all back for penny's on the dollar.
There is NOTHING 'STUPID' about the people running Bend. They have been playing these games forever.
Both HBM & Dunc chose to be poor, HBM thinks that the people who got rich did so by being stupid.
No, they got rich by being here at the right time, at the right place, and they bought low, and sold high. That ain't stupid.
Like the SOLAR scam, great wealth isn't made by hard-work, its made by government manipulation.
The great fortunes in Orygun real estate have always been having the government BUY your inventory in bad times, and buying it back cheaper towards the good times. This is how BIG money is made.
This ain't STUPID.
Re: Christmas Valley
See http://corenewable.wordpress.com/2008/02/20/christmas-valley-area-may-get-solar-wind-geothermal-hub/
The key factors, other than a lot if sun, is a secure facility and massive transmission lines in place. It's a great opportunity.
>> Re: Christmas Valley
Time to snatch up some of that cheap XMas valley real estate!
>>with the exception of marge, women have never lasted more than a few days here.
I just celebrated a year here listening to you all rant. Not so sure that my writing has changed though. :>)
First time on the blog, and for what it's worth, its very interesting. I like the commingling of first rate data and blog-on-blog drama.
I shall return
I think we're going to do 400+ posts this week, and its all because we stole HBM!
Folks from the SORE are running away, and flocking over to BB2.
That said, looks like today at least Aaron Swishler has re-enabled comments on tsweekly.com.
BP&TIM post your Tolstoy, quick before Aaron wakes up in the AM with BENDBB again.
We'll see employer outflow forever, especially after we go broke providing tax incentives at huge taxpayer expense.
*
That's the great thing about the current city biz model, spend money you don't have quicker than anybody knows. Spend it all before folks wake-up and know its gone!
Can't declare a crisis and manufacture consent for the ultimate 'boss hogg golden parachute' if you ain't got a crisis of first order.
The little folks will never pay the bill, and big biz here doesn't exist, and the hogg's ain't paying the bill!
Thus Homer is right, new biz will think twice about coming to Bend in the future, as even the dead Bend RE speculators who know that somebody is going to PAY, and PAY BIG. The Bend Ponzi Scheme is about to blow-up, and somebody is going to get the bill.
Idea's? First of all look no further than the recent mandatory city biz registration. My guess is they'll do a PDX, once everyone has registered their DBA, they'll make them pay 1% of the gross for the biz license! You laugh? PDX has been doing this for years.
When BEND starts doing this shit, and they will, that's why they had the $500 fine two years ago if you didn't register your biz, so they could know who to tax.
When they start doing the +1% of the GROSS, nobody is going to re-locate their biz near Bend.
So who is going to pay? It's going to get ugly.
I would like to see them go back retroactive on the HOGG's for the MISSING $2 BILLION SDC's, but they'll not do that, like HBM says COSTA ain't going fuck with his friends and their golf game.
Pussy,
You should go to xmas valley and BUY!
There has never been a better time to BUY in xmas.
I never said I wanted to live there, just that it is a good opportunity for someone. The Governor, Walden, etc. are all over it already. Whoever starts up down there is going to save tens of millions in transmission line installation right away.
If all I was inteterested in was money, I sure as hell wouldn't be in Bend, like many others here. The get rich quick schemers have left or are trying to, as soon as they can dump their house.
Fannie, Freddie $223 Billion Debt Rollover Problem
Fannie and Freddie have a looming $223 Billion Debt Rollover Problem.
Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's success in repaying $223 billion of bonds due by the end of the quarter may determine whether they can avoid a federal bailout.
Fannie, based in Washington, has about $120 billion of debt maturing through Sept. 30, while McLean, Virginia-based Freddie has $103 billion, according to figures provided by the government-chartered companies and data compiled by Bloomberg.
My Comment: It is a near certainty taxpayers will be bailing out Fannie and Freddie. The only questions now are about the size and exact nature of that bailout.
...
My Comment: Those preferred yields suggest that bondholders may not be made whole by whatever shape the bailout takes. Pimco just might find itself on the wrong side of its bet if bondholders participate in some of the losses. And certainly equity holders will be wiped out in any kind of bailout.
Never seen a better short to zero...
Homee, Where are all the cute little pictures you used to post?
>>Never seen a better short to zero...
Ah, but you're not allowed to short Fannie and Freddie, are you?
"Ah, but you're not allowed to short Fannie and Freddie, are you?"
you can short as much as you can borrow. you cannot short phantom stock anymore though.
Tim, IIRC shorts are fine, but not naked shorts.
Lehman's another good candidate, although there is some small chance it will survive. If so, it will see great dilution:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/08/lehman-in-deep-trouble.html
Tim, IIRC shorts are fine, but not naked shorts.
Lehman's another good candidate, although there is some small chance it will survive. If so, it will see great dilution:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/08/lehman-in-deep-trouble.html
Naked shorts are never legal. In the 19 targeted pieces of shit the SEC is protecting, you actually now have to borrow first, which is pretty onerous (depending on your broker).
But what I was referring to is the fact that FNM and FRE broke down below $5. Many brokers will not let you short stocks under $5.
In short, it's gotten pretty damn tough to short these GSEs. Still possible, I guess, if you work hard and get lucky.
There are puts with strike prices below the current prices. That's what you could do if you wanted to bet they'll go down.
Another great piece by Mish:
The Future Is Frugality
"This is an epic event; we're talking about the end of a 20-year secular credit expansion that went absolutely parabolic from 2001-2007."...The US has been on a consumption binge of epic proportions all on the misguided belief that real estate prices would keep on rising forever, at a clip of 8% or more a year. No one ever bothered to do the math as to how anyone could possibly afford to pay the projected prices. Real wages were shrinking but somehow everyone could get rich selling houses to each other.
Good ol' Leonard Cohen on "The Future":
I've seen the nations rise and fall
I've heard their stories, heard them all
but love's the only engine of survival
Your servant here, he has been told
to say it clear, to say it cold:
It's over, it ain't going
any further
And now the wheels of heaven stop
you feel the devil's RIDING crop
Get ready for the future:
it is murder.
Or perhaps suicide, here in Bend.
Re: FRE and FNM
Wow, I just took a look--what a fucking pounding. Should have shorted last Friday. Down 50% since then...and no end in sight.
It's just a matter of time before FRE follows FNM into dropping the dividend to a nickel.
Or to zero if they no longer care about institutional holders that demand at least a token dividend.
Those were kick-ass stocks for a generation. Just goes to show you that leverage and a bubble can kill anyone.
It's not the bear that gets you--it's the bull.
If the goal is MORE JOBS then it doesn't make sense to get rid of the $14,000 received for system development charges. Who can afford that?
Why not just ban all motorized transport and introduce rickshaws, you know, like they have in Calcutta.
This would do a number of things:
1. It would create a lot of jobs, as getting home from the grocery store would require someone on the rickshaw to pull you.
2. This would reduce carbon emissions.
3. With no cars, the roads would be safer for bicyclists.
4. It would make it harder for people to leave Bend at night with all their stuff packed in a U-Haul. Therefore we can maintain population numbers.
5. The city could reduce its road maintenance budget, since rickshaws and bicycles hardly cost anything.
6. People would be in better shape, from walking and riding more.
7. Traffic jams would be less common, and the traffic circles easier to negotiate.
-- Come on, let's don't digress onto other shit -- let's push forward this program now!!!
Re: Why not just ban all motorized transport
Don't be a dumb shit and expect a decent response.
Inevitably, these new residents are changing their new hometowns, making them more expensive places to live. And it can be hard for the original residents to keep up.
Kind of a reverse Steinbeck "Grapes of Wrath".
The grandchildren of the Okies who went to California are invading Oregon and making it too expensive for Oregonians. There's a sort of poetic justice in it, I guess.
Maybe the Oregonians should move to Oklahoma. Personally, I'd rather die.
I think we're going to do 400+ posts this week, and its all because we stole HBM!
Awww, I'm touched. Really I am. (Sniff, sniff.)
bruce said...
Don't be a dumb shit and expect a decent response.
*
How true, BrucePussy, how very true.
Of course, you would know, right?
The PussyDumbShit who gave us:
1) Butt plugs that the City Council will buy
2) Statutory Rape is a good thing
3) CC Exec Sessions complaint
Pussy, be sure and keep the Dumb Shits on this blog in line!!! Call 'em out when you see 'em!!
I now proclaim that The Pussy is now hereby the King_Of_DumbShits_Pussy
If the City of Bend ia giving up SDC's. We need to raise money. I think it is time for others that use the streets to pay thier fair share.
In 1954, in Minneapolis, where I grew up, we all had a bicycle license. I was rather proud of mine. It was a mini plate like a car license. Maybe not be practical now.
With the recent uptick of bicycle sales I think the City could fill some street maintenence couffers with a licensure of bicycles. After all, they don't pay for the f*&king bike lanes that all of the car drivers do. Why should the bikes use the bike lanes we pay for for free. Sorry, I know many here ride bikes. If they used to charge bicycle license fees in the 50's and 60's why not now? Especially here in Bend.
So I am going statewide with this. If you want your own lane ...pay for it!!
BP, this can get the city out of debt.
Personally, I just want to tax the goofy bike riders who wear the Mighty Morphin Power Rangers costumes.
All the people wearing normal clothes should get a tax credit.
Tim,
Not, the ones in normal clothes are the ones that die when they go forward and a car turns right.
I saw one today on 3rd street near Albies. Jackass bike rider on the wrong side of the street, never slowed when a car was coming to the stop sign(a little forward of the line) he almost got smashed and flipped off the driver. I wanted to smack him. I wish I had some long arm that reaches out of my car to bitch slap some of the bicyclists. They all need to have a license and pay for the bike lanes.
Re: Why not just ban all motorized transport
Don't be a dumb shit and expect a decent response.
*
I worked in a developing country once where someone actually suggested that they ban motorized transport to create jobs for rickshaw pullers.
Hell, I live in a state where you can't even pump your own gas to make work for pump jockeys.
The point is that there are A LOT of stupid policies that can be adopted in the name of making jobs or helping out so-and-so ('affordable' housing).
The waiver of SDCs amounts to a "make work" policy. It's a subsidy to builders so that they will build houses and hire workers.
There's a lot of "make work" policies.
The best thing a government can probably do is to DO LESS.
At least this will help anyone whose a taxpayer (i.e., all of us).
Tim we call the bike suits getups, but I like your analogy I wear normal clothes not skin tight getups with names written all over like they are (sponsored)and those names what do they mean?Do the skintight clothes give them power or are they trolling for queers?
Bend Bicylists
"Speaking of the GSEs, the WSJ published a front page story today with this crucial paragraph:
[Freddie] had to pay hefty interest rates [in an auction of its debt yesterday]….Five-year notes were priced to yield 4.172%, or 1.13 percentage points above yields on safe Treasury notes, the highest “spread” Freddie has ever paid on such debt.
Among the largest buyers of GSE debt are foreigners recycling the dollars they collect as part of their trade surpluses. And the GSEs now finance virtually the entire U.S. mortgage market. If foreigners stop buying GSE bonds, the capital available to finance housing will be reduced significantly, and mortgage rates will spike. [Indeed, in this latest auction, Europeans/Asians bought 41% of Freddie's debt, which is down from an average of 51% last year.] Anyone who thinks the fall in housing prices can’t get much worse hasn’t considered what will happen if mortgage rates go to 9-12%."
Tim, you're such a Debbie Downer...
After all, they don't pay for the f*&king bike lanes that all of the car drivers do.
Marge, the vast majority of bike riders also own cars and help pay for the roads through gas taxes just like everybody else. And the bike lane doesn't add anything to the cost of the road, beyond the cost of painting a white stripe to mark it off.
Both HBM & Dunc chose to be poor
Never said I was "poor."
"HBM thinks that the people who got rich did so by being stupid."
No, the people who got rich were smart. It's their enablers in city government who are stupid. Or at any rate not smart enough to put together and carry out such elaborate conspiracies as some here have described.
Hell, I live in a state where you can't even pump your own gas to make work for pump jockeys.
I like the no-self-serve-gas rule. I don't relish the idea of having to stand out in the rain and snow and sub-freezing cold to pump my own gas and splashing gas on my shoes and pants and having my hands stink like gasoline all day.
And if you think self-serve gas means low-price gas you haven't traveled out of state much. Any money saved by having self-serve goes straight into the gas station owner's cash register. Why do you think the station owners push so hard for self-serve -- out of a benevolent impulse toward their customers? LOL.
I wonder if Sallie Mae won't be the next shoe to drop?
A huge lender on some pretty abstract collateral...
I like the no-self-serve-gas rule. I don't relish the idea of having to stand out in the rain and snow and sub-freezing cold to pump my own gas and splashing gas on my shoes and pants and having my hands stink like gasoline all day.
Another metric to add to the Cali-Banger Quotient?
pump my own gas and splashing gas on my shoes and pants and having my hands stink like gasoline all day...
I don't want to wank on ya too hard dude, but if you can't avoid splashing gas on your shoes while pumping gas, can we trust you to HAVE YOUR FINGER ON THE BUTTON over at The Source?
:-)
If you want a real idea of how BAD the restaurant biz is, go check the listings at Compass Commercial.
And this probably excludes their SILENT LISTINGS: the deluded seller who thinks that THEIR RESTAURANT is special & does't want it exposed to the dregs of humanity.
I'd bet that 75% f restaurant owners downtown would "entertain" offers. Few would actually sell, because this is Bend, we're special, etc...
Financials and Housing: The Outlook Remains Ugly
by: Whitney Tilson posted on: August 20, 2008 | about stocks: ABK / FNM / FRE / GGP / MBI / PMI / RDN / XHB / XLF Font Size: PrintEmail Financial stocks crashed in the first half of July and then rallied in the second half. Shorting these stocks had become widespread (often paired with going long oil and commodities), resulting in the shorts became very crowded. Thus, in mid-July when the government stepped in to eliminate naked shorting, prevent Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from failing (at least temporarily; we are short both) and pass (yet another) housing bailout bill, financial stocks experienced a quick, sharp reversal that fed into itself as momentum-driven short sellers rushed for the exits and a clumsily unwound their trades.
We believe this is yet another bear market rally in this sector, of which there have been many over the past year, as this chart of the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund makes clear - click to enlarge:
We remain short many financial stocks, primarily the bond and mortgage insurers, the GSEs and a few banks, because we believe that, in general, their fundamentals remain awful and they have not yet fully fessed up to big losses, which will require them to raise substantial additional capital on highly dilutive terms (if they’re lucky). At their lows a month ago, perhaps this scenario was built into their stock prices, but at much higher levels today we believe there’s limited upside and substantial downside.
The State of the Housing Market
In general, we are bottoms up stock pickers, but on rare occasions we develop a high degree of conviction on a particular macro view and apply this to our stock picking, both long and short. One such view is that a worldwide debt bubble of unprecedented proportions – the largest component of which was the U.S. mortgage market and its various derivatives (RMBSs, CDOs, etc.) – built up over a number of years, peaking in mid-2007, that is now in the process of unwinding. We believe that the unwinding of this bubble – and the resulting credit crunch – will last many years, the dollar amounts involved will eventually be measured in the trillions and the total losses will likely exceed $1 trillion, of which only about $400 billion has been recognized to date by the world’s financial institutions.
There are many factors impacting this ghastly mess, but surely one of the biggest is the unprecedented decline in U.S. home prices. Simply put, we do not believe that the financial sector will stabilize until U.S. home prices do. So, the key questions are: how much further will home prices fall and when will they reach a bottom? Our best guess is that home prices, which through May were down 18.4% from their peak in July 2006 (based on S&P Case Shiller data), are only about halfway finished declining – meaning that home prices will eventually fall 30-40% from their peak – and that a bottom will not be reached until 2010 at the earliest. Needless to say, our view is significantly more pessimistic (we prefer to think realistic) than that of most analysts, CEOs of financial companies and other “experts”.
Presentation on the Housing Market
We have put together an 18-page slide presentation with our latest analysis of the U.S. housing market, which is posted at www.valueinvestingcongress.com (click on the link on the right side of the page that reads: “READ the presentation or VIEW THE VIDEO from T2 Partners on the Bursting of the Housing and Credit Bubbles.”).
Here are our comments on each of the 18 slides:
Slide 1) This chart shows that prior to this decade, the average American household was able to borrow approximately 3x its pre-tax income to buy a house. As the decade progressed, lenders became increasingly irresponsible and, at the peak from early 2006 to early 2007, they were willing to lend 9x a household’s income! This madness was exacerbated when lenders frequently didn’t bother to verify a borrower’s income or assets – these low/no-doc loans are only somewhat jokingly referred to as NINJA loans: no income, no job, no assets.
The far right side of the graph shows that, as of the beginning of this year, due mainly to lenders tightening their debt-to-income ratio limit back to historical levels around 35%, the amount that can be borrowed to buy a home had fallen by 39.4%, to 5.2x income (as of today, the decline has been even greater, as Amherst Securities estimates that the leverage has fallen to 4.6x). Keep in mind that these figures are optimistic, as they assume an interest-only loan, which few lenders are willing to make anymore and, in addition, lenders are once again requiring meaningful down payments.
The massive decline in leverage available to home buyers will likely be permanent and put home prices under pressure for many years to come.
2) As the bubble has burst, existing home sales have tumbled and the inventory of homes to be sold has reached an all-time high of nearly one year. Econ 101 will tell you that prices cannot stabilize until excess inventory is sold off. It took three years for the excess inventory to accumulate and we wouldn’t be surprised if it took three years to work it off.
3) Not only are many homes and condos for sale, but even worse is the fact that many are vacant, which can result in distressed sale prices, homes falling into disrepair and depressing the prices of nearby homes, etc. This chart shows that 2.9% of all American homes and condos were vacant as of the end of Q1, more than 50% above historical levels (and the number is surely higher today). The most shocking statistic on the page is the fact that of all homes and condos built this decade, 10.2% are vacant.
4) Foreclosures are major drivers of home price declines because they typically result in an auction of the home, often resulting in a highly distressed sale price, whereas someone selling their own home typically won’t accept such a price. This chart shows that foreclosure filings have skyrocketed over the past two years and there’s no sign of a let-up. Last month, foreclosure-related sales accounted for 42% of home sold in California and here’s what an article in the New York Times article said today about what the nation’s two largest home mortgage players are doing:
Daniel H. Mudd, Fannie’s chief executive, told investors that Fannie was “using a lot of innovative ways to get the property out the door.” This is not, he said, a good time to be holding on to foreclosed properties “and hoping for a better day.”…
Foreclosures are soaring. In 2006, Fannie and Freddie between them acquired 52,967 properties, a figure that leaped 36 percent, to 71,961, in 2007. During the first half of this year, there were 66,420 foreclosures by Fannie and Freddie.
Not only are there more foreclosures, the losses are much larger. In 2005, Fannie lost an average of 7 percent of the unpaid principal when it sold a foreclosed property. So far this year, the figure is 26 percent, and in California it is up to 40 percent. In all of 2006, Fannie foreclosed on 93 California homes. The current rate is almost 1,000 a month.
Here are some additional statistics:
• At the end of Q1, 2.47% of mortgage loans were in foreclosure, equal to 1.3 million homes or 2% of U.S. households
• 1/3 are in California and Florida
• Nearly three million homeowners were behind on their mortgages at the end of 2007 and 1-2 million are at risk of foreclosure in 2008
• 8.8 million homeowners were underwater on their mortgages (balances equal to or greater than the value of their homes) as of the end of March according to Moody’s Economy.com
• 30% of subprime loans written in 2005 and 2006 are already underwater
5) Fueled by loose lending standards and a bubble mentality by all market participants, home prices nationwide from 2000-2006 rose more than 50% – and now need to fall approximately 34% from their peak to return to trend line.
6) In the top 20 metropolitan areas tracked by the S&P Case Shiller Index, home prices more than doubled – and, through May, had only fallen 18.4% from their peak.
7) This chart that appeared in the Wall Street Journal last month shows that home prices in the 20 metropolitan areas tracked by the S&P Case Shiller Index, having declined 17.8% from their peak through April, need to fall an additional 29.0% (41.6% total) to reach the level they were at in January 2002.
8) These two charts measure home prices relative to rent and income levels. The former shows that, assuming steady rent levels, home prices need to fall about twice what they have fallen so far to reach the historical average. The latter shows that home prices have already fallen back to the long-term price-to-income ratio. This is the only data point we’ve been able to find that shows home prices have already fallen back to normal levels, and it doesn’t make any sense to us, as income levels for average Americans have been stagnant.
9) This page shows the month-to-month (sequential) changes in U.S. home prices from March 2005 to May of this year. In the first 17 months of this chart, home prices continued to rise, albeit at a slower and slower rate, until July 2006, when home prices peaked. At that point, the line on the chart goes negative, where it has remained, meaning the home prices have fallen in every month since their peak.
The most interesting and relevant part of the chart is the line in the last three months, in which the rate of decline slows sharply: from January to February 2008, home prices fell an unprecedented 2.6%, but then "only" fell 2.2% in March, 1.3% in April and a mere 0.8% in May. Looking at this data, one might be tempted to extrapolate the recent trend and conclude that home prices might stabilize in the new few months – and if that's true, then many financial stocks will likely be great investments from here. We don’t think this trend will continue, however, as the next two slides make clear.
10) This graph shows month-to-month home price data since the inception of the S&P Case Shiller 20-city index at the beginning of 2000. It makes clear the enormously seasonality in the month-to-month numbers – and that in the eight previous years going back to 2000, home price changes in April, May and June of each year (highlighted by the red circles) are much higher than the rest of the year.
11) This is the same graph, using the S&P Case Shiller 10-city index, which goes back to January 1987. Again, in virtually every year, one can see the better performance in April-June. Mathematically, the simple average monthly increase in April-June of each year since 1987 is 0.76% (9.6% annualized) vs. only 0.29% in the other 9 months (3.5% annualized).
So does this mean that home prices are likely to return back to falling 2%+ per month later this year once this seasonal effect wears off? Probably not – 2% per month is a very high number. But we'd guess – and it’s only a guess – that the average monthly decline will average at least 1% for at least another year and then another year in the zero to -1% range on average for before home prices finally bottom in mid-2010.
12) Many mortgages written at the peak of the bubble (from early 2005 through the middle of 2007) had low “teaser” interest rates that reset after two years, which triggers payment shock and, in many cases, default. It’s not a coincidence that the mortgage crisis began in early 2007 which, as you can see in the chart, is when the first wave of resets hit, from (mostly subprime) mortgages written in early 2005.
This chart shows that the resets taper off by the end of the first quarter of 2009, which is leading many to predict that home prices will bottom shortly thereafter. There are two reasons why we believe this prediction is incorrect. First, it takes an average of 15 months from the date of the first missed payment for a home to go through the process of going into default, being foreclosed upon, the lender taking possession and, finally, liquidating the asset. It is primarily in the last phase, typically when the home is auctioned off, that home prices are pressured. So, to determine the timing of when home prices might bottom, one shouldn’t look at when the resets taper off, but rather when the wave of foreclosures and auctions do. Thus, add 15 months to the end of Q1 2009 and that’s mid-2010. But the story is even more grim…
13) This chart picks up what the other chart misses: that a huge wave of Option ARMs and, to a lesser extent, Alt-A mortgages will reset (or “recast”) in 2010 and 2011 – a wave as big as the one in 2007 and 2008 that has caused so much pain to date.
14) This slides describes what an Option ARM is. In short, an Option ARM is an adjustable-rate mortgage that was given to a prime borrower, usually based on the borrower’s FICO score and appraised value of the home, with little concern for the borrower’s income or assets – hence, more than 70% of Option ARMs were low/no-doc. The key benefit to the borrower was that, until the loan resets (the technical terms is “recasts”), the borrower only had to pay a small fraction of the interest owned on the loan, with the difference being added to the principal balance of the loan.
So, for example, the Option ARM might have an interest rate of 7%, fixed at this level for the first five years, but the borrower would only have to pay interest only at, say, a 2% rate (with very small increases each year). Each month that the borrower chooses to pay the lower rate, the unpaid interest is added to the balance of the loan – this is called negative amortization, and approximately 80% of all Option ARMs have incurred some degree of negative amortization since inception.
A typical Option ARM resets either after five years elapses or – this is key – the loan, due to negative amortization, hits a trigger point, generally at 110%-125% of the original loan balance. This means that a borrower paying 2% rather than 7% for three years will see the loan balance increase by roughly 15%, which often triggers a reset.
Slide 13 shows the scheduled five-year Option ARM resets, but because nearly all Option ARMs are negatively amortizing, many are resetting right now, which is triggering a sharp rise in defaults.
15) This slide has quotes from a Wall Street Journal article about rising Option ARM defaults. Here is the key quote:
’My sense is that many option ARM borrowers are in a worse position than subprime borrowers,’ says Kevin Stein, associate director of the California Reinvestment Coaliton, which combats predatory lending. ‘They wind up owing more and the resets are more significant.’
16) This slide shows that until March 2005, the interest rate on an Option ARM was lower than that of a fixed-rate 30-year mortgage, which attracted rational borrowers to Option ARMs and deterred those already holding Option ARMs from refinancing.
But after March 2005, rising short-term interest rates pushed the Option ARM interest rate above the rate of a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage – at one point, nearly 200 basis points higher. This should have dampened demand for Option ARMs and led to a surge of refinancings into the fixed-rate mortgages, but this didn’t happen – in fact, demand for Option ARMs surged.
How could this be? What could account for such unprecedented, irrational behavior? There are two likely explanations:
A) The borrowers had high FICO scores, but weren’t really prime borrowers (one of the major lessons from the mortgage bubble is that FICO scores have proven to be very poor predictors of whether someone would default on a loan). Recall that most Option ARMs didn’t require any documentation of income or assets (unlike most traditional fixed-rate loans), so if someone had, for example, recently lost his job, an Option ARM would be the product of choice. Of course, such borrowers are likely to have subprime-level default rates…
B) The borrowers were prime, but were buying their dream home at a peak-of-the-bubble price, were stretched to the limit, and simply couldn’t afford the full-interest-plus-amortization payments that traditional fixed-rate loans require. What do you think will happen to these borrowers when the Option ARM resets, the interest rate jumps (to a level far higher than what it would have been under a fixed-rate loan), and not only must all of the interest be paid each month, but the loan also becomes fully amortizing?
Even if the homeowners can afford the new, dramatically higher payments, will they be willing to make them? As the next slide shows, the majority Option ARMs were written in bubble states in which home prices have already fallen by 25% or more, meaning a huge number of Option ARM loans are far, far underwater.
Consider this example: Imagine a $600,000 mortgage that negatively amortizes to $690,000, which triggers a reset (assuming a 15% trigger). At the same time, the value of the home has fallen 25% to $450,000. How many homeowners will simply walk away from their homes (or demand that the lender write down the loan to market value) rather than make full interest and amortization payments on a mortgage that’s 53% above the value of the home?
17) This slide shows that Option ARMs were concentrated in the states that had the biggest housing bubbles – and are suffering the worst consequences.
18) This is an email from a Federal Senior Bank Examiner about Option ARMs, which he predicts will be “the next tsunami to hit the housing market”.
Disclosure: The author manages funds that are short Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ambac, MBIA, General Growth Properties, PMI Group, and Radian.
No, the people who got rich were smart. It's their enablers in city government who are stupid. Or at any rate not smart enough to put together and carry out such elaborate conspiracies as some here have described.
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'Elaborate Conspiracy', why not be a little explicit HBM? Afraid? Think your corpse might end up floating down the Deschutes below Benham if you specifically talk about the 'enablers'??
>>I don't want to wank on ya too hard dude, but if you can't avoid splashing gas on your shoes while pumping gas, can we trust you to HAVE YOUR FINGER ON THE BUTTON over at The Source?
Ah man, is hbm one of those adults wearing the big plastic kids bib at the spaghetti house?
HBM,
Just so you don't waste your time with the children here, lets review the cycle.
1.) sunday, homer (dad) posts legal subject matter to be discussed for week
2.) sunday-monday; bulletin blogger fodder attacked
3.) tue-frid; personal attacks and potty talk prevail
4.) Satur; everyone quits posting fearing their tolstoy will fall on the last weeks blog
5.) sunda; go to #1; life is renewed
Ergo you'll find that sund-tue is only time worth wasting time here, just to help you be more productive.
Been this cycle for over two years, with zilch of a change. Homer calls the personal attacks post tues as strange, but remember this group is all about tearing into something, largely composed of 'loser renters' with a grudge against life. They can blame the BULL and perhaps SORE on lifes pain sun-mon, by tues what can be said was said, so then it becomes an Island of 'lost children' cannibalizing into one another. ... DEJA-VU
I want to say one other thing for BP's behalf, buster ain't been here for about 24+ hours, and I counted over a dozen buster-like posts, ergo I think my work may be done, I think this kluster-fuck has become self-perpetuating.
Lastly, HBM get off your ass and tell me if COSTA got rich?
I didn't mean to say you and DUNC were 'poor', I just meant that you didn't get 'RICH'.
That said I'm a firm believer in the emerson/thoreau defn of rich, "Your rich in proportion to the shit you can afford NOT to buy".
Ah man, is hbm one of those adults wearing the big plastic kids bib at the spaghetti house?
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Buster too, when I go to PDX, I always go to Jakes for Bouillabaisse, and they give you a bib, and I where it, and never see anybody else do so, but the whole point of eating that bowl of seafood is to get down and suck all the guts out the crab shells and craw-fish, ...
Does this mean that tim only eats through a straw?
Do they even offer a bib at Italain joints? They should, pasta eaten correctly is tossed and sucked, slopped.
HBM, get a pacific-pride card, and fill your own fuel, there all over town in Bend. I can't stand not filling my own tanks, the retards never put the caps back on correctly. Then you can where a bib, and shoe covers when you fill. I don't care myself, I always reek of diesel fuel. Shoes? My the bottom of all my shoes are pitted from the alcohol they put in gasoline, turns most 'rubber' soles into sponge. Must be a 'conspiracy' by shoe folk, to put ethanol in our fuel.
A few things I've discovered...
You can't throw a stone and not hit someone "in real estate" or "real estate related" field. I'm really shocked at the number of people I run into that are associated with real estate. Oh, and they all just bought houses in the last year, improved said house and believe they are in a good position with their real estate holdings. The Nile does not run in Egypt alone.
We're just now starting to see some of our friends capitulate on the real estate market. I'm looking at the number of our friends that are now just starting to hurt, I wonder what the real number is out there? It's gotta be huge. It's sad to see our friends obtain their expensive "education".
No, the people who got rich were smart. It's their enablers in city government who are stupid. Or at any rate not smart enough to put together and carry out such elaborate conspiracies as some here have described.
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This is no different than what I have said from day-one here.
The electorate are amentiy-parasites. The electables ( mayor, ... ) are packaged parasites.
City-Staff & City-Hall are controlled 'enabled' by BOSS-HOGG&CO, aka Brooks Resources.
Brooks came to the game rich, and will BK Bend, before allowing Brooks to BK, that said ALL WILL BK.
STUPID/DUMB are the parasitic-electorate, but they all thought they were going to get rich, and many still think so!
Most of the city-staff/city-hall, couldn't get a real job anywhere else, they can't compete in SForPDX, this is why Bend is so full of parasites. Then what would you expect in a town occupied by 'retired rich'. Never been a better place to be a grifter than Bend, Oregon.
No FUCKING CONSPIRACY HBM, a conspiracy MANDATES/REQUIRES SECRECY. All you got to do is read the fucking Les Schwab Sales agreement written by BOSS-HOGG lawfirm SWW ( schwabe, will, & wyatt ), and you can see how easy it is to FUCK BEND, and its all publicly available. The problem is city-hall don't read, never did, SWW/Les-Schwab only gave the city-staff and city-hall one-hour to read a document they wouldn't read anyhow.
All this is beside the point, everytime there is a vote, the city-electables look over to HOLLERN&CO and say "HOW WE VOTE BOSS", and in almost all cases the 'enabler' says "YES".
Conspiracy in FUCKING BEND HBM? NO FUCKING WAY. YOUR TALKING OUT OF YOUR ASS.
Can't have a conspiracy where its all documented. What we have is a conspiracy of SILENCE orchestrated by the SORE & BULL.
I have many rich friends in Bend.
Most are no longer rich.
I know many builders in Bend, most sold their BIG fucking STD to your FRIENDS back before 2007, and now live in small little cheap homes that are paid for, so they can weather the storm.
The WHOLE FUCKING 'best in 20 package' in the town, is that the 'enablers' have been selling now for two years to suckers.
ONE thing for damn sure, the 'enablers' of 'best in 20 years to buy' didn't fucking BUY, they SOLD.
That is my comment on this issue, and my friends. I know almost all the builders at BT, H@BT, & NWXC; and they all downsized 2+ years ago, the ONLY FUCKING people who didn't know that the bubble was over by 2006 were fucking gullible shit-heads.
Realtors lying, MTG Brokers LYING? Is the pope catholic?
Developers who bought into the BULL about buying post 2006 developments for 'cheap' committing suicide? Who would have guessed?
Bend cares? Cares about who? Your friends in BEND? They all came here for the gold-rush, most would leave today if they could leave. NOBODY cares in Bend, thats clear by the fact that city now gives away SDC's for FREE, and there was NO OUTRAGE.
NOBODY cares about anybody or anything in this town.
Now the good-old-boyz just sit tight with their loot, and weather the storm, and watch everybody else leave or die.
"Best in 20 years to BUY" will go down as a death-sentence, a city the self promoted suicide to its weakest and/or greediest members.
Lastly, HBM get off your ass and tell me if COSTA got rich?
I have no idea.
I don't want to wank on ya too hard dude, but if you can't avoid splashing gas on your shoes while pumping gas, can we trust you to HAVE YOUR FINGER ON THE BUTTON over at The Source?
What button? I ain't got no steenkin button.
I don't care myself, I always reek of diesel fuel.
Well, I don't reek. And I don't want to. But whatever floats your boat.
They should, pasta eaten correctly is tossed and sucked, slopped.
No, it's twirled -- without the aid of a spoon. I grew up in an Italian neighborhood in Trenton, NJ and know whereof I speak.
No, it's twirled -- without the aid of a spoon. I grew up in an Italian neighborhood in Trenton, NJ and know whereof I speak.
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I agree, but one man twirl is another mans whirl, you can do it lady like with a spoon, or you can whip it around your fork. The second technique is where all the buggers on the walls and your shirt comes from, and thus the need for a bib.
Not every Italian eats his pasta like a girl.
It's like Chinese with chop sticks, there are 100's of correct ways to use them.
Lastly, HBM get off your ass and tell me if COSTA got rich?
I have no idea.
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You don't get invited to his partys? Hell you used to have his job?
You know more about how well he's done here than the rest of us, you certainly must here rumor? At the very least you can publish a rumor as anonym-ass to cover your stupidity.
Talking about 'stupidity' I think we should talk about the pussy.
Its been a year now he just showed up. Soon he'll be running for mayor, and he'll most likely get elected to some orifice.
He's no better or worse than any other cheap REHO running our city.
He's covered city-hall more in the past year, than HBM has in the last ten years. I mean he actually goes to meetings, the SORE doesn't even have a person assigned, as thats the BULLs job to report on city council.
You note the pussy has talked all along about JR, and only JR, the pussy has always been consumed by KURATEK another new grifter not unlike the pussy.
The pussy never mentions the HOGG's, and never mentions Lord-HOGG-HOLLERN himself.
Thus I think that the pussy will do just fine in the post-bubble government, he'll vote for the HOGG, but be a new face, and the future looks fine.
I'm sure there are more pussy's in the wings ready to be brought out.
Like sonya, city treasurer, or book-keeper, she couldn't have this job in any other city, but in BEND anyone can rise to their level of incompetence by keeping their mouth shut 'omerta'.
Bend is a mob town, and the mob has enabled 'fools' to do their dirty work.
I love Bend.
On the subject of COSTA, our leader @ our BULL.
Certainly most of friends have passed away. I wonder what its like to belong to wine & golf clubs, and having all your best friends off themselves?
In COSTA's circle everybody has to play party line. Anybody new buy unsold development 'for the best price in 20 years', then COSTA will write you up in a hurry. Then about six months later when the bank tells you to go fuck yourself on the 10th REFI for the project, you lose another friend.
Certainly COSTA must be a player. I guess we only have to have the pussy run a DIAL, and see if he's a big player?
Most likely he's do busy telling lies for the BOSS-HOGG. Who knows someday soon COSTA might 'crack' and do a Fisher?
Hell, there are tons of folks at the BULL who must be ready to crack.
Lying to your nieghbors, your church, your family, ... seeing your 'friends' lose their life savings by buying into your BULL. It's a heavy burden that most people cannot carry, unless your a tier-one boss hogg, good old boy.
I do agree with HBM that the BOSS-HOGG keeps a long distance from the 'ENABLERS', so called 'stoooopid people'.
My humble fucking opinion is that COSTA is one of these stoopid fucking enablers, and thus HBM is probably right, he didn't make any money on Bend's greatest PONZI scheme in its short 100 yr history.
You don't get invited to his partys? Hell you used to have his job?
John Costa and I are not exactly best buddies. I would've thought you would be able to figure that out.
Who knows someday soon COSTA might 'crack' and do a Fisher?
Won't happen.
thus HBM is probably right, he didn't make any money on Bend's greatest PONZI scheme in its short 100 yr history.
I didn't say he didn't; I said I don't know. Costa doesn't discuss his financial affairs with me.
I didn't say he didn't; I said I don't know. Costa doesn't discuss his financial affairs with me.
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Have you been to his house? Watched his autos? ... Listened to him speak about his French Riviera vacations?
IMHO COSTA is a flunk, one of your 'enablers' that just lives pay check to pay check.
The developers and golfers let him tag along, but he's not a player, he's an 'enabler' of the HOGG.
You would know if COSTA had the trappings by now, just from 'rich mans' disease, e.g. GOUT, guys like that make a little money quick can always be told by the rosy cheeks from too much liver & wine living rich.
I'll let it go, by bet is COSTA lives paycheck to paycheck.
John Costa and I are not exactly best buddies. I would've thought you would be able to figure that out.
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Nothing is ASS-umed in this town.
Besides its not the opinion, but the answer to the question that brings insight.
You must be aware that you being an insider of the 'editorial machine' of Bend have an insight that nobody has like you.
I don't assume anything regarding to people in Bend. Some of the people that are referred to as assholes on this board are in fact very nice people.
My circles of people are high-tech, builders, ... that circle brings me in touch with the newbies that brought the money to this town in most recent years, and the people who built their homes.
I can't stand golf, cigars, or most of downtown Bend. Now ask many any fucking question about Deschutes Brewpub since the day they opened, there I would offer an opinion, as that had always been my second home. Today with alternatives I don't live their as much.
Sitting on the stools of Deschutes I have met many business owners, and builders.
I drink wine on occasion, I find that most of Bend's 'beautiful PR people' are wine folk.
Most of the power people are cigar/golf folk.
Beer drinkers, we're just regular working folk.
I go to a far variety of party's all over this town east&west all year round, but generally its the same type of people.
Where I meet the city council types and such are at all the ski, hiking, ... clubs; Generally they're very nice people, and have been here forever.
I would have never guessed one way or the other that you & Costa weren't fond of one another.
This is why I choose to remain anonymous, so I can get along with all these people.
Getting back to the pussy.
So he goes after KURATEK like a veneagance. Just so happens Bill Smith, & Mike Hollern also hate Kuratek.
Kuratek is Rasputin, came to this town, and took advantage of the left/right phony wedge in city government that Hollern has created.
Kuratek was brought aboard, because he like Garzini is an expert a federal block grants. The good old boyz pre 2004 needed federal grants real bad for their boon-doggles downtown, and they didn't want to use their own money, as OPM rules the day in Bend, like all other phony riche towns.
Kuratek got on some boards in 2004, and then took over JR by 2005, and it drove the fucking good-old-boyz crazy.
Imagine and outside grifter coming in and taking candy away from them?
So last fall along comes the pussy, who dedicates his life to bringing KURATEK down.
I love KURATEK, he shows that anything is possible in Bend, that an outsider can still come in and OUT-GRIFT the old boy Grifters.
Kuratek is the man!
Almost two years ago, HOMEE said 'buster is crazy', but all he writes about JR is true! So far I have been absolutely correct in the entire outcome.
I might also add the LesSchwab (Borgan) also hates Kuratek.
The big show never ends in Bend.
One day folks killing themselves, and or killing each other, the next day stealing from each other, and/or the public.
In a town like BEND where all common crime in Government goes un-reported anything is possible.
I'm really surprised a GUY ten times the size and TALENT of KURATEK hasn't come into this town off a horse, and just taken over?
Anything is possible in Bend, with the way that HOLLERN has sit it all up, and he's getting very old, and there is no apparent heir.
My bet is still Brooks will go BK, and take Bend down BK with it.
Buster, you and I were tickling on de Toqueville a couple weeks back and it prompted me to go back and do some re-reading of books I've read in the past.
Just picked up 1984 and Animal Farm for reading pleasure.
I read these in high school, but then I didn't know what the fuck was going on! I was just trying to survive. Now, after years of business experience (kicks in the teeth and callouses), these great works make SO MUCH MORE SENSE. I almost think reading these books is a waste of time in one's youth, at least that's been my experience. Its kinda like the Bible: You don't get "the wisdom" until you've seen and done a lot of shit.
Buster should publish a to-read booklist for those late bloomer/like-minders such as I.
Just got back from ODOT meeting, which I got to so late I missed virtually all of City's presentation. Saw ODOT's presentation of alternatives on 97 reroute. Their timeline is picking the best alternative(s) this fall, finish NEPA study over 2009, then Record of Decision summer/fall 2010.
Then comes actual bidding and construction.
Needless to say, this doesn't fit into the cities timeline.
From overhearing several conversations, gist of city's argument is that we want jobs, we'll deal with the congestion.
Gist of ODOT's argument: it's our highway, number 1 priority is through travel, local traffic should be on local streets.
ODOT prefers bridge at Cooley, no direct access to 97. That surprised me. This was in their guidance to planners from March, 2007.
I'm trying to find out more about City presentation (they brought a crowd) from 3rd parties who attended and by getting the docs they presented.
Chair of OTC recommended looking into ODOT subsidizing local streets as a way to reduce overall costs of 97 fix. They are looking out 20+ years, including a potential north beltway from 20 to 97 and around east and south to 20.
None of this is happening by this fall.
I still don't see a way ODOT authorizes developing JR, because it not only makes an already failed intersection an even greater failure but it is favoring the city over private landowners, a big no-no. Commenter Jim Bruce, who owns land around the 97/20 intersection, made this extremely clear and the OTC agreed that this is an issue.
My take: City is pretty much fucked as far as sales this fall, or even next spring. I don't know what kind of magic Garzini can pull out, but it better be good.
Correction: OTC prefers bridge, ODOT recieves their guidance. Probablt ODOT, too, but may be impolitic to say.
Cascade Village lawyer made comment about needing access to commercial developments, about how the alternatives cut off too much access. Provided maps with ideas for more access.
ODOT only wants access points at Deschutes Market and Empire, with maybe one in between. They want a freeway in a place with no room left for one. The elephant in the room.
You know what simply amazes me is the $30-40M midterm solution, the one that many public meetings were held about and much planning went into the last two years has simply disappeared.
That was supposed to enable JR and Walmart.
Now, the city is trying to push through JR at the cost of private developers other than Walmart. Walmart is the only one willing to buy a bunch of $9000 trips is my guess.
Or rather $6000 trips, because the Bend taxpayer is already subsidizing this before it even happens.
I'll let it go, by bet is COSTA lives paycheck to paycheck.
Like I said, I don't know anything about his personal affairs but I'm pretty sure you'd lose that bet. I'm sure his salary at The Bully is generous. As for what investments he may have or what his net worth is, I have no idea. He and I don't travel in the same circles, we don't share the same political views, we don't see each other or talk to each other.
spotted this "job" ad on craigslist. is the job market in Bend similar to the real estate market? bring in out-of-towners with no pay but instant equity leading to quick riches. excerpt:
"We are searching for a lead engineer / team who will receive a very large percentage ownership of our business. The goal is to sell the company within two years for $10 million or more. . . . There is no cash compensation for the first 480 hours of work which will push us to profitability, then we can pay salary. . . . We are located in Bend, Oregon and prefer people who like to visit here / are open to moving here . . . ."
http://bend.craigslist.org/sof/807123868.html
Re: lead engineer...no cash first 480 hours
Is that even legal?
Not in my experience as an employer, but hey, what do I know?
Regards the pussy's inquiry about WALMART. There is only one comment.
FELONY
Across the street from Dunc, and all over town 'DreamScape' or whatever it was called, well there are now tons of indictments and people going to jail. All this was originally a front for Walmart deals that is what cascaded their Credibility in the town to get UNLIMITED local money from your favorite local Bend regional banks.
My guess is WALMART is laying very low, as the 'dreamScape' was their front & center PR & Advance Team.
It's all in limbo now boyz.
'desertScape' or 'dreamScape' something like that, we have posted many times here about that deal and all the felony's.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgcdRCWEt4Q&feature=related
My take: City is pretty much fucked as far as sales this fall, or even next spring. I don't know what kind of magic Garzini can pull out, but it better be good.
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Imagine that! Everyone read carefully what the pussy said above.
HOMER, HOW MANY TIMES HAVE WE TOLD THE PUSSY JR WAS DEAD?
How can the city be 'fucked' pussy, its the people who BUY that worthless shit rock land, that county sold city for ONE DOLLAR in 1992.
Those are the people that are fucked.
The ONLY REASON les-schwab bought the land for $3M, was to pay off KURATEK, and in turn they got over $12M in 'shovel ready' excavation improvements paid by the City of BEND.
The ONLY WAY deals @ JR will EVER GO DOWN is if the City Spends $20M to make $3M.
Who is getting fucked?
JR lands costs $7/acre to BUY, but COSTS $18/acre to blast-rock to use, so long as city pays the latter shit will happen.
Given we're BROKE, its over pussy.
How can the city be 'fucked' pussy, its the people who BUY that worthless shit rock land, that county sold city for ONE DOLLAR in 1992.
Those are the people that are fucked.
The ONLY REASON les-schwab bought the land for $3M, was to pay off KURATEK, and in turn they got over $12M in 'shovel ready' excavation improvements paid by the City of BEND.
The ONLY WAY deals @ JR will EVER GO DOWN is if the City Spends $20M to make $3M.
Who is getting fucked?
JR lands costs $7/acre to BUY, but COSTS $18/acre to blast-rock to use, so long as city pays the latter shit will happen.
Given we're BROKE, its over pussy.
Re: Who is getting fucked
Local taxpayers. Never said different, have I?
Re:HOMER, HOW MANY TIMES HAVE WE TOLD THE PUSSY JR WAS DEAD?
Many. Too many to care.
But I mean shit. The city crew wants it to happen, in a real bad way. It's their parachute.
Doesn't matter if traffic backs up for 20 minutes on a state highway if they can just sell a few million in land to make their budget projections.
I'm just hoping Sonia has projections without all the fluff.
I've been so busy I haven't checked the BULL today--did the CC agree to all those new hirings last night?
bruce said...
Re: lead engineer...no cash first 480 hours
Is that even legal?
Not in my experience as an employer, but hey, what do I know?
+
Of course it is legal.
Didn't Lee Iacoca-cola lead Chrysler back from the dead for $1/year and a boat load of stock?
Didn't Microserf's work for sub-standard salary and M$FT stock, and now live in Central Oregon, riding bikes in their (spandex) underwear, retired in their 40's?
And the Pussy claims to have been a high-tech employer. LOL!! Who did you employ, the buff-ski-bum-biker-tri-athlete? Nope, she owns you, remember, Mr KeptMan.
Pay the employees a buck a year, but be sure and pay that employment tax, and make sure you deduct for income taxes! Nothing illegal bout dat!
Walmart, Prison, Juniper-Ridge: This is what Bends looks like after a Bubble.
Ex-bank investigator gets 3 years for fraud
by Brent Hunsberger, The Oregonian
Thursday March 20, 2008, 11:42 AM
A federal judge this morning sentenced a former U.S. Bank fraud investigator and land developer to 37 months in prison for embezzling $1.5 million of the very money he recovered from bank thieves.
U.S. District Judge Garr King also accepted a forfeiture agreement that requires David A. Shelofsky, a former police officer in California and real estate developer in Central Oregon, to fork over up to $1 million of net proceeds from the sale of tony Bend- and Portland-area properties which he purchased with stolen money.
Shelofsky, 39, pleaded guilty in October 2006 to pocketing $1.5 million of the money he recovered from people accused of defrauding U.S. Bank. He had served as manager of the bank's asset forfeiture and recovery section based in Portland when he pilfered the funds between 2002 and 2005.
At the same time, Shelofsky and several business associates sank more than $20 million into prime commercial and resort lands, mostly around Bend's booming real estate market. In early 2006, Wal-Mart Stores Inc. acquired land for a new store in Redmond from Shelofsky and his partners for $10 million.
The West Linn resident was scheduled to be sentenced in March 2007. But King at the time rejected a plea deal between the government and Shelofsky, suggesting the proposed sentence of 37 months was too lenient and voicing concern that neither U.S. Bank nor prosecutors had fully investigated how much of his wealth stems from the theft.
An accounting review ordered by King traced $582,000 of the embezzled funds to properties that Shelofsky purchased, including a $1.5 million lot in the exclusive Pronghorn Estates golf resort outside Bend and a half share of an 18th-floor condo along Portland's South Waterfront.
But the recent decline in real estate values, particularly around Bend, led King to conclude that Shelofsky might not reap any profits from his investments.
An independent review by an accountant for DesertScape Properties, a Bend development firm in which Shelofsky owns a 45 percent stake, found Shelofsky's assets at $8 million, about $2 million less than what he owes in mortgages, debts to third-parties and unpaid taxes.
Under federal bank fraud law, Shelofsky faced as many as 30 years in prison and a $1 million fine. Citing Shelofsky's cooperation with prosecutors and the court, King today accepted the original recommended sentence of 37 months and three years' probation.
King also imposed the new forfeiture agreement, which will require Shelofsky, after paying off an estimated $4.6 million in outstanding debts to third parties and unpaid taxes, to give the government half of all proceeds from future land sales up to $1 million.
King granted Shelofsky's request that he serve his time at a medium-security correctional facility in Sheridan starting June 2.
Shelofsky worked as a police officer in South San Francisco and Arcata in the 1990s before joining U.S. Bank in 1997. He also volunteered for two years as a reserve police officer in Milwaukie.
In court today, Shelofsky turned and apologized to his former manager, bank senior vice president and head of security Terry Gerling, and to his family for betraying their trust. His attorney, Stephen Houze, said Shelofsky had entered treatment for drug and alcohol abuse and had received a two-year sobriety award from an Alcoholics Anonymous program.
"I had no excuses," Shelofsky told King. "I do not blame my addictions, my alcoholism or my childhood. ... I blame this selfish man standing before you."
Houze said none of Shelofsky's DesertScape business partners - including Craig J. Glazier, Portland attorney Thomas E. Bahrman and accountant Matt Mattechek -- were aware of Shelofsky's criminal behavior before his confession in early 2006.
Hank & Lava, I have a question for you.
Who has MORE olympic gold medals, Phelps or the Pussy?
This is not a joke.
Buster should publish a to-read booklist for those late bloomer/like-minders such as I.
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Mao's 'little red book'
The Primer on Money ( US Congress )
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The first essential, because all of Mao's new millenium plans are on track.
The second is useful to understand why Mao will win.
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Oswald Sprengler's "Decline of the West" ( 1920's two volume ) classic german mathematician/sociologist study's all western civilization since dawn of mankind.
Shirer(?) Rise & Fall of the Third Rhiech is good to understand how Nazism ( national socialism like Bend ) came about.
"The fall of the roman empire" ( 1800's can't remember his name ) Learn how & why all western civilizations always collapse. ( Read the Primer on Money ) two-volumes
McElevny 'The Great Depression' ( learn how people survived the last one, no bullshit here, tells is like it was )
Actually Quim, on the subject of Books, essential READ is "Carrol Quigley", Georgetown U, PROF, head teacher for CIA/State-Depart, died a few years, Bill Clintons personal & favorite teacher.
At first inauguration, CLINTON only MENTIONED one man, Quigley was still alive then B-CLINTON said "I wouldn't be here today, being inaugurated as POTUS if not for my under-grade prof carrol quigley", now who in the fuck was that man?
Carrol Quigley did what NO man has ever done before. He was a historian. He felt that the how & why 'white-man' took over the world was SO FUCKING important, it MUST be documented. Thus with historical perfection Quigley wrote one dozen books starting from Apes in Caves to Cecil Rhodes, the height of anglo-saxson influence, on to the creation of the CIA.
His first book is called 'History of Civilization' talks about how man crawled out of the cave and how society became what it is today. ... His last book, before he died dealt with post WWII all the way up to Ronald Rayguns tenure.
What quigley does is say who is who, who runs the USA, who is in control, and who put who in power.
This is where Bill-Clinton came in Bill was so influenced by Quigley, that Bill used this information, to secure contacts with these very people who do RULE THE WORLD, and Bill got them to sponsor him to become president.
Like OUR pussy, in good information is good power. If you WISH to rule the world, as CLINTON did, then reading Quigleys books is essential. Like OUR Bend PUSSY, if you wish to RULE Bend it wouldn't be hard. You just got to know where the power is, and who pulls the levers, and you need to gain their trust.
So Quimby, get on Amazon.com and type in 'carrol quigley' if you really want to know, why things are the way the are, and why they put greenspan where he is, ... whatever you want to know, becuase quigley documented it et-al.
quim,
I would start with evolution, then do ango-american, so you can see how US/UK took over the world, then do Tragedy&Hope last so you can see post WWII how&why everything today is run by the CIA the way it is. Remember Quigley's whole purpose was to educate CIA children, so they could continue the empire.
He did a good job of this, his books were written, because he considered the history as important as the mission.
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Tragedy & Hope: A History of the World in Our Time by Carroll Quigley (Hardcover - Jun 1975)
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4.4 out of 5 stars (32)
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2.
Anglo-American Establishment by Quigley Carroll (Paperback - Jun 1981)
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3.
EVOLUTION OF CIVILIZATIONS, THE by Carroll Quigley (Paperback - Aug 1, 1979)
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4.
Tragedy and Hope by Carrol Quigley (Unknown Binding - 1966) - Import
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Houze said none of Shelofsky's DesertScape business partners - including Craig J. Glazier, Portland attorney Thomas E. Bahrman and accountant Matt Mattechek -- were aware of Shelofsky's criminal behavior before his confession in early 2006.
*
Now that is the quote of the night.
>>"The fall of the roman empire"
I think you're referring to Gibbon on that one. Great book. Love the part when the church splits east & west.
But I mean shit. The city crew wants it to happen, in a real bad way. It's their parachute. - BP
*
Brooks Resources also wants his enablers ( your city-crew ), HBM's stupid people, Hollern wants them to BUY all his STD's for full value, before he goes BK.
The children in Hell want Ice. BP, this is why we call you the pussy.
Who gives a fuck what the 'enablers' want? Bend is fucking broke. It took too fucking long. The candy store is plain fucking empty.
Yes, the want it bad, not certain its their parachute. Everybody in politics wants a bridge named after them, if you didn't like people, and need your ego fed, you wouldn't do that shit. For no other reason most of those people have invested their entire political lives in this boondoggle, but so fucking what!
Bullshit walks, and money talks, and BEND is broke. Anymore work up there @JR is going to be CASH in advance, the ONE thing BEND ain't got.
What if we get SNOW this winter? What is the current CASH-BAL is the city $50K?
Nothing worse than a poly-tick-ian that has no money to spend, its not going to be FUN anymore.
SO FUCKING WHAT. WE DON'T CARE PUSSY, WHY DO YOU CARE?
SURE they WANT it to happen, like the child in hell want's ice, like you want cookies brought to bed at nappy time by your wife. So what.
>>"The fall of the roman empire"
I think you're referring to Gibbon on that one. Great book.
*
Yes, make sure you get the two volumes and get the original un-censored un-adulterated version. Originally the catholic church and the Jews, and everyone else had all the good shit removed, by your quote I suspect you got your hands on the original set.
Just make sure you get the REAL ORIGINAL PURE manuscript version from the 1800's and learn the REAL fucking history of the CHURCH.
Learn how & why ROME really fell, and it fell for the reasons on the Primer-on-Money, it fell because the money became worthless, and bakery's went empty, and granaries went empty because farmers wouldn't take the worthless paper money.
>>McElevny
Wow. You stumped me. I haven't read that. But I did read "Hard Times," which I love.
Re: Hard Times
I meant Studs Terkel, not Charles Dickens, BTW.
>>McElevny
Wow. You stumped me. I haven't read that. But I did read "Hard Times," which I love.
*
Its a classic, keep it by your bedside, all the way down the bendbubble. This book has whole chapter just on how real-estate collpased, that's where the expression "real estate paralysis" comes from "buyers couldn't sell, sellers couldn't buy". 1932, three years after the stock collapse, real-estate became paralyzed. 90% DOWN
McElevny is genius, great historian, clearly understand business. Doesn't miss anything from 1920's to the 1940's. Thick book. Not boring.
One last classic for the night is
"Grand popular delusions, and madness of the crowds"
If you had one book to talk about HBM's STUPID, this would be the book, witch-trials, bubbles, its all here, each in their own chapter, also written in the 1800's.
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles MacKay (Hardcover - Dec 2003) - Illustrated
Get an old original copy from the 1960's or earlier in paperback for $1, they're around, big book.
A chapter on south-sea bubble (bend-like), tulip mania, ...
You can't even TALK ABOUT BEND-BUBBLES until you have read this book.
Madness of Crowds is great. Dirt cheap, from what I remember, as it's public domain.
Online here:
http://robotics.caltech.edu/~mason/Delusions/index.html
Hank & Lava, I have a question for you.
Who has MORE olympic gold medals, Phelps or the Pussy?
This is not a joke.
@
Hmm... you may be correct.
Google our very own Bruce Ew#@%t and gold medals, and you get 40 hits. Turns out Mr. BE is a wine maker outta Nova Scotia with many many gold medals for his wines.
After all his Bend City Council mtgs, he must fly his Lear Jet to Nova Scotia for the total eclipse of the sun.
After all his Bend City Council mtgs, he must fly his Lear Jet to Nova Scotia for the total eclipse of the sun.
Good one!
What button? I ain't got no steenkin button.
Well, I'm just saying... you've got to carry those 5 gallon buckets of ink walking on those narrow gangways suspended above the vast field of Source printing presses... right?
Don't try to BS me... I've watched Citizen Kane!
Just more proof that there is No Pipe Dream Bullshit RE Project That The Blletin Will Not Flog:
Tall hotel may be in Sisters' future
An upscale hotel rising as much as 50 feet could be on the horizon for Sisters’ Western-themed downtown.
Under plans submitted to the city in April, the 98-room, three-story Sisters Village Hotel at the west end of Sisters would give the city its tallest building and would be evaluated based on Deschutes County planning guidelines, according to Eric Porter, the city’s community development director.
That’s due to an agreement made in 1998 between Pine Meadow Village LLC, the city of Sisters and the county that gave owners of the property 10 years to submit an application and fall under the county’s less-restrictive code for the Sisters area.
Representatives of the project’s developer, Celia Hung, of Bend, turned in the hotel project application April 4, a day before the 10-year agreement expired, Porter said.
Just because you CN doesn't mean you SHOULD.
This Hung chick bought the KOA campground at the Absolute Dead Top of our local RE zenith.
Market conditions could alter the project, said Hung, the owner of the Sisters/Bend KOA, a 102-space campground on the east edge of town. Hung is the managing partner of 853 James Terrace Inc. of San Marino, Calif., which bought the property for $2.4 million in 2005, according to Deschutes County records.
That property will NEVER EVER be cash flow positive in our lifetimes. EVER. This hotel is WORSE.
This woman probably will earn the distinction of Losing More Money Faster Than Anyone Alive In The Bend Oregon RE Bust.
That Pine Meadow site is just about the WORST POSSIBLE SITE for a project of that kind. Overlooks Les Schwab, and the Cracker Shithole that is Pine Meadow.
This is a Last Man Standing piece by the Bully: Absolute grasping at straws to illustrate that You Can Still Build In Bend & Make Money.
Just because you CN doesn't mean you SHOULD.
Mmm... CAN
That KOA makes money 2 times a year: Quilt Show & Sisters Rodeo.
Otherwise it sits at near ZERO OCCUPANCY.
And if you've looked recently, you'll see she ground up ever square inch of dirt to FURTHER PACK IN CAMPERS.
There is only ONE WAY this thing will EVER come close to breakeven: She parcels up the thing into 300 sf lots that she sells to dumbfuck old farts who love to own plots good for camping 2 months out of the year.
She'll have to get $50-60K/ea. And it'd take a decade or two to sell out.
Never happen.
She parcels up the thing into 300 sf lots that she sells to dumbfuck old farts who love to own plots good for camping 2 months out of the year.
And why do that, when acreage around Sisters will soon be below $10K/ac?
Learn how & why ROME really fell, and it fell for the reasons on the Primer-on-Money, it fell because the money became worthless, and bakery's went empty, and granaries went empty because farmers wouldn't take the worthless paper money.
I've read Gibbon too. The story was a lot more complicated than that. By the time Rome started printing paper money it was well into decline. Hyperinflation (worthless currency) is a symptom of a country in the terminal stages. The US isn't there yet ... but we're on the way.
you've got to carry those 5 gallon buckets of ink walking on those narrow gangways suspended above the vast field of Source printing presses
LOL! No, actually I have my "minions" do that. It's good to have minions.
Rome started printing paper money it was well into decline. Hyperinflation (worthless currency) is a symptom of a country in the terminal stages. The US isn't there yet ... but we're on the way.
*
Decline started the day Rome Started, it ended when the granaries went empty, no food, folks moved away. The farmers wouldn't bring wheat for bread, because the money had no value. Nobody fucking said where the USA was in this, its just a good book. Just like Oswald Sprenglers book, on how all western-civilizations have ended for the same reason, over&over.
HBM your new here, but HOMER writes about hyper-inflation all the time, its one of his favorite subjects.
Probably the best thing about Gibbons book, if you can get the original is his take on religion. I think Sprenglers books is better on why Rome as a business failed.
SHit 50' in Sisters, who would have guessed.
It will never fucking happen, Sisters Hotel has been a bust since day-one.
Deja-vu, new sucker is spending money in Central-Oregon, and the BULL gives them 15min of fame. This is how they killed Audia.
Make a STUPID purchase in a falling knife economy, BULL reports your brilliance, then six months later you OFF yourself, and your persona non-grata. Only in BEND.
Hyperinflation (worthless currency) is a symptom of a country in the terminal stages.
*
This is why Oswald Sprenglers two-volume set "Decline of the West" is the best, he has whole chapters on what he calls 'mercantile economys'.
The gist is that since the beginning in all western-civilization, all starts fine with good 'coin' be it gold or shells. Then mercantilists take over government, and print paper money, and the dilute the money. Money becomes worthless, civilization collapses.
Where is the USA? Today? My guess is not in our lifetime. The UK is 15+ year ahead of us, watch them, they're the canary in the coal mine.
Full swing on Books is why I mentioned Chairman Mao's "Little Red Book"
"Quotations from chairman mao tsetung" - should be avail on amazon.
Mao had everything planned back in the 1950's to take over the world, and all his plans are on perfect track. Just about the time OUR current Western-Civilizations are in utter ruin, China will lead the world into the next millenium.
I think that's why Quigley, Carrol wrote "Tragedy & Hope" before his death, there is hope, but most likely tragedy on the horizon. The tragedy of the Anglo-American US/UK empire crumbling into a psychotic/parasitic mess.
If Mao were alive today he would be so pleased, the USA borrowing Chinese money to kill Arabs.
Four bedrooms for a buck
Think you can make a killing in the foreclosure market? You'd be hard pressed to find better bargains than in Detroit. The Motor City gives new meaning to an upside-down housing market. If the banks were smart, a reach I grant you, they'd bypass the brokers and unload these beauties at Dollar Tree.
One unnamed bank just sold a four-bedroom house for a buck -- at a cost of $10,000! Explains why bank stocks are in the toilet. If you're looking to troll the Detroit market, realtor.com has four more $1 steals (including a duplex!) and listings for over 170 properties under $1,000. (Go shopping!) "My 14-year-old son could buy a block of Detroit property," Ann Laciura lamented to the Detroit News. She's a senior servicing specialist for the Bearing Group, the firm hired to manage and sell the property. The kicker? Even at a buck, it still took 19 days to sell it. Word to Detroit banks: It might be more cost effective to forgive the debt than foreclose. I'm just sayin.'
I searched Realtor.com, and found 190 properties in Detroit for under $1,000. Several homes & lots selling for $1.
Homer,
Those must be some sweet hoods, where even 12yr old crack-dealers are afraid to invest?
Trouble is my bet is these were $1 homes ten years ago, and during the bubble someone said, "Hey that part of Detroit is going to be the next Bend, I'm mean Aspen". Now the shit is back to where it was before. Boarded up.
Great comments by everyone today, and hey ... how did someone find about the cookies brought to me in bed?
The gist is that since the beginning in all western-civilization, all starts fine with good 'coin' be it gold or shells. Then mercantilists take over government, and print paper money, and the dilute the money. Money becomes worthless, civilization collapses.
That sounds back-asswards to me. The only thing that gives paper money value is the good faith and credit of the government backing it. As long as people have faith in the government and its survival the money has value. When they lose faith, the currency becomes less and less valuable and a downward spiral begins -- hyperinflation (viz. Germany after WWI, the American Confederacy in 1864).
First comes social/governmental weakness and loss of public confidence, THEN hyperinflation, THEN collapse.
Speaking of the Olympics, what do you all make of the men's and women's 4x100 relay teams BOTH dropping the baton? I mean, how fucking LAME is that??? Simply inexcusable.
Unbelievably lame....
I love that Jamaica is a world power in terms of Reggae, smoking dope, and running really fuckin fast.
That sounds back-asswards to me.
*
Read the "Primer on Money" HBM
Forum Meadows in FORECLOSURE
Great story in Oregonian, about how your Buena-Vista that did all the auctions, is now completely BK.
If I recall correctly, they did not sell a single Bend house in the auction. How many houses in bend are affected?
Yeah, 29 houses in Bend failed to sell in the auction late last year.
I suppose it's possible a few may have been sold since.
How it can go down if a business blames you of "false accusations".... and to think this is by warm, soft, fuzzy Nike.
Nike asks Chinese government to ID blogger
by Richard Read, The Oregonian Friday August 22, 2008, 6:05 PM
Nike denies there's anything wrong with asking Chinese authorities to find out who posted "false accusations" about the Beaverton-area company on the Internet.
A columnist for the British newspaper The Guardian, wrote Friday that Nike asked the Chinese government to track down the author of a Web post that accused the company of forcing a hurdler out of Olympic competition.
"Nike is enlisting the services of a repressive regime to crush its enemies," Marina Hyde wrote from Beijing.
Pennbrook Homes showed up for a couple NOD's today. Shevlin Reserve. Haven't paid since Nov 1st. These weren't included in the cool guy lease back lawsuit deals in the Highlands a few weeks ago.
"Nike denies there's anything wrong with asking Chinese authorities to find out who posted "false accusations" about the Beaverton-area company on the Internet."
This is a story you will NOT read in The Oregonian, which thinks Phil Knight shits rose petals.
US regulators shut Kansas bank
Columbian Bank of Topeka, reported $92 million in delinquent loans in the second quarter.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- -- Federal regulators on Friday shut down Kansas bank Columbian Bank and Trust Company, which was struggling with losses on soured real estate loans.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. was appointed receiver of Columbian Bank of Topeka, Kan., which had $752 million in assets and $622 million in deposits as of June 30.
The FDIC did not give a reason for the closure, but Columbian reported $92 million in delinquent loans in the second quarter, citing a "volatile real estate market." The bank set aside $9.2 million for loan losses in the first quarter, up nearly 30 percent from the $7.1 million it set aside in the first quarter of 2007.
5 problem borrowers
A financial statement for the bank shows $482.3 million in real estate loans in the first quarter, including $439.4 million in construction and development and commercial real estate loans. Columbian has said that five borrowers represented nearly half the $92 million in problem loans.
Construction and development loans are areas that have been under greater scrutiny from federal examiners, the FDIC has said, and a growing number of banks have cited weakness in those areas of their loan portfolios.
The agency said Columbian's deposits will be assumed by Citizens Bank and Trust of Chillicothe, Mo. Its nine offices will reopen Monday as branches of Citizens Bank. Depositors of Columbian Bank will continue to have full access to their deposits, the agency said.
It was the ninth failure this year of an FDIC-insured bank.
That compares with three failures in all of 2007. More banks are in danger of failing this year, agency officials have said.
The FDIC estimated the resolution of Columbian Bank will cost the deposit insurance fund around $60 million.
Regular deposit accounts are insured up to $100,000.
There were about $46 million in uninsured deposits held in 610 accounts at Columbian Bank that potentially exceeded the insurance limit, the FDIC said.
Concern has been growing over the solvency of some banks amid the housing slump and the steep slide in the mortgage market. The pressures of tighter credit, tumbling home prices and rising foreclosures have been battering many banks, large and small, across the nation.
The FDIC has been beefing up its staff of examiners to handle the anticipated spike in bank failures this year.
IndyMac Bank
The largest bank failure by far this year has been that of savings and loan IndyMac Bank, which was seized by regulators on July 11 with about $32 billion in assets and deposits of $19 billion.
The seizure of Pasadena, Calif.-based IndyMac, which was the largest regulated thrift to fail in the United States, prompted hundreds of angry customers to line up for hours in Southern California to demand their money. IndyMac also was the second-largest financial institution to close in U.S. history, after Continental Illinois National Bank in 1984.
The FDIC has been operating the bank, now called IndyMac Federal Bank, under a conservatorship.
On Wednesday, the FDIC announced a program under which thousands of troubled home borrowers with loans from IndyMac will be able to switch into 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages with interest rates capped at around 6.5 percent in what could be an important test case for future bank resolutions.
FDIC officials have said the agency expects to raise insurance premiums paid by banks and thrifts to replenish its reserve fund after paying out billions of dollars to depositors at IndyMac. The fund, currently at $53 billion, is expected to take a hit from IndyMac of $4 billion to $8 billion.
FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said recently she expects turbulence in the banking industry to continue well into next year, and more banks to appear on the agency's internal list of troubled institutions.
Of the 8,500 or so banks in the country, 90 were considered to be in trouble in the first quarter. The FDIC doesn't disclose the banks' names.
Only 13 percent of banks that make the list fail, on average, and most are nursed back to health or acquired by stronger institutions, according to Bair.
Federally insured banks and thrifts set aside a record $37.1 billion to cover losses from soured mortgages and other loans in the first quarter, when profits were nearly halved.
Couple more builder NODS:
Fehlman Land and Homes
5 lots $357K to Bank of Tigard
Aspen Tree Homes
2 lots, $3.4M to Umpqua Bank
Badlands Ranch LLC
3 lots, $800K to LibertyBank
Sun Coast Development LLC
18 lots, $2.1M to US Bank
A financial statement for the bank shows $482.3 million in real estate loans in the first quarter, including $439.4 million in construction and development and commercial real estate loans. Columbian has said that five borrowers represented nearly half the $92 million in problem loans.
*
Do the numbers BP, its not hard to run DIAL, and find the BIG-FIVE for CACB. It's not hard see that those five add up to more than $100M.
It's not hard to predict where CACB or Umpqua are going.
Brooks Resource Coyotes now grabbing personal pets for the joy of kill on Awbrey!
Coyote grabs, kills dog on Awbrey Butte
By Deanne Goodman, KTVZ.COM
It happened in a matter of seconds.
"Becca was hot tubbing and Lulu was playing in the yard," Leisha Marshall said Tuesday, recounting what her daughter told her.
"A small coyote that she said looked like a large cat grabbed Lulu, and she heard a yelp," Marshall said.
She says her daughter jumped out of the hot tub and chased the coyote in her swimsuit onto a golf course.
"The golfers saw the coyote run, but it didn't have Lulu in it's mouth" said Marshall.
Lulu was found in the brush, dead. She had puncture wounds to her neck, one to her rear and one in her eye.
Steven George, a wildlife biologist with the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, says most coyotes kill animals to eat them.
He says if you see a coyote, walk away from it slowly, and if you are a pet owner, keep your pets indoors or near the home.
"We have numerous coyotes spread throughout (Deschutes) County - very common just about anyplace - even had them in downtown Bend," George said. "So it's not unusual to see them anywhere."
Coyotes often travel in packs and have been known to get a pet to chase one, only to lead that pet into the mouths of waiting coyotes.
Re: Do the numbers BP
DIAL doesn't have mortgage info. the Recorders office does, but you have to open each individual PDF file to read the bank name, as I did for the posting above. That's because when the NOD is filed it's in the new trustee's name.
You can search for Deed of Trust/Mortgage by bank name, but it brings back a big list. 23,404 for Bank of the Cascades for example.
Although such a search does yield interesting info. For one, they have only done eight (yes-8) mortgages in August. Along with 10 home equity loans under $100K.
Interestingly, two of those eight were $3,000,000 loans ($6,000,000 total) into 919 Bond Condominiums. One was to 311 Oak Street LLC for first floor condos, and the other to Cannery LLC for second floor condos.
Rather speculative at this time, one would think.
I was checking out those fancy new condos Bauhoffer's Arrowood is building behind Inn of the 7th the last couple of days. the pace seems to have picked up. They are really trying to sell them, to retirees I would think, but they must be spending millions moving rock around.
Speaking of coyotes, we had one around Widgi all spring. Pretty much single-handedly took care of the voles. I named him Barry after the owner. He was getting pretty used to us working aroun him--at one point I was less than 50 feet from him at the 6th green as he drank from a puddle near a sprinkler head. He drank his fill and trotted off towards town.
Didn't hear of any pets getting killed, but I think he had more than enough to eat between the squirrels and voles. He was one of the fattest, healthiest looking coyotes I've ever seen.
Haven't seen him for a few weeks now.
Watched an osprey hunting over the ponds between 16 and 17 twice in the last couple weeks, too. First time I didn't notice him until he hit the water trying to nail one of the bass. Couple days ago he spent 5 minutes or so hovering and looking, then flew off towards the river.
Another big B of C investment in downtown Bend, to the tune of $2M. This one to Bond Street Partners LLC, secured by 956 Bond St, on 7/28/08.
Jeez, another CACB loan, $2,125,000to Cascade Holdings LLC, secured by 2705 NE Conners Ave. June 11, 2008.
Who the fuck would put out another $2+ million for STD's now?
Some curious decision making.
That last one is wierd. The debtors include Doug Zirker and Bill Delgado. The wierd thing is the description of the land securing the note:
EXHIBIT 'A'
LEGAL DESCRIPTION:
Lot 2 of CARPENTER SUBDIVISION, City of Bend, Deschutes County, Oregon.
File No.: 7061-1158935 ( CS)
EXCEPT a tract of land to be dedicated for traffic signal purposes, located in the Northwest one-quarter of the Southwest one-quarter of Section 26, Township 17 South, Range 12 East, W.M., City of Bend, Deschutes County, Oregon, described as follows:
Beginning at the Northwest corner of Lot 2, CARPENTER SUBDIVISION, CS13736, Deschutes County Records, said corner located on the South right of way of NEConners Avenue and the East right of way of 27th Street; thence North 89°57'16" East, along said South right of way, a distance of 30.00 feet; thence leaving said right of way South 44°57'16" West, 42.43 feet to a point on said East right of way of 27th Street; thence North 00°02'44" West, along said right of way, 30.00 feet to the point of beginning.
Now, if I'm reading that right, that's a 30 by 42 piece, 1260 sq ft.
Odd...
Another CACB construction loan, $1,395,000, secured by 1303 SW Lake Road, Redmond, on May 28, 2008. Builders Roger Dryden and Bob Eberhard.
Man, I can't imagine how deep of a hole they are digging themselves, still.
OK, maybe I was reading that one wrong--the 30x42 spot is for the traffic signal, and the rest of lot two is a commercial development.
Still--in this market climate, out on the northeast side?
OK, back to long, strong legs in short shorts jumping up and down...
BP,
Do deed-of-trust by bank, by month, by volume/month, by name!
What we need is spread-sheet, and then perhaps we can pick the big-five.
Certainly Bledsoes cigar-parlor is coming along, I walked by next to the D&D last night, and their were all kinds of guys with beer hanging out the second story window like New Orleans.
All the private cigar club is having condo's at that site, I wonder if any had sold?
The bank trends would be interesting who is loaning, who is contracting, so is expanding right now?
We should do more research on these big deals that have been done by Umqua & CACB recently, by name, who is getting these deals, once you have the LLC, you can go back to DBA and find out who the principal really is.
Brooks Resource Coyotes now grabbing personal pets for the joy of kill on Awbrey!
Coyote grabs, kills dog on Awbrey Butte
By Deanne Goodman, KTVZ.COM
*
This will be the biggest story tomorrow on the BULL.
Re: Do deed-of-trust by bank, by month, by volume/month, by name!
Yeah, I wish I had the time...
Buster probably does, between fixing his rentals.
I just want to say its a pleasure sharing my Bend with you folks.
You might know that they don't let us do 'stupid' over at the Source.
I have found this site to be Birds of a Feather when it comes to 'stupid'.
Bend is stupid, all the blogs are stupid, city hall is composed of stupid enablers.
Realtors are stupid, bankers are stupid, almost all of Bends rich people are stupid.
It's easy to be smug in Bend, if your not stupid.
The preceding poster is an impostor.
But there definitely is more than enough stupidity in Bend to go around.
>>The preceding poster is an impostor.
Yeah, we knew.
Never let it be said that hbm doesn't know the difference between "your" and "you're."
A Certain Way -- KOHD
8/23/2008 – Bend
by Matt McDonald
Thirty one year old Brad Bailey was quickly captured by Bend Police this morning after he allegedly broke into the M and J Tavern. Around three AM, Bend Police recieved [sic] an alarm call at the M and J tavern on the corner of Greenwood and Hill Streets. When they arrived, they found the window on the side door had been smashed and that several bottles of liquor had been taken. Police determined the suspect had cut himself in the process. They began a search of the area and quickly made an arrest.
"The evidence led to him and he kind of came to us in a certain way," said Bend Police Lieutenant Ken Mannix.
Bailey lives just west of the M and J Tavern and was spotted by police walking down the street shortly after the break-in. He's was arrested on burglary and theft charges. After his arrest, Bailey was transported to Saint Charles Medical Center and treated for his injuries before being lodged at the Deschutes County jail.
There is a reason television reporters are not newspaper reporters. Of course the Bulletin didn't catch Jeld-Wen's huge ad with Bachelor misspelled like 4 times.
And I just noticed the "he's was."
A truly amazing piece.
Guess he is STUPID. Even I knew it wasn't hbm.
You know, I could have sworn I put up half a dozen or so posts on CACB loans in the last two months...
I wonder if the local banks are starting to encounter scared depositors.
Is there some kind of reassuring words the cashiers are supposed to say if someone asks about FDIC insurance?
yes they are, I am one of them.
Moving out business account out of Columbia River Bank on Monday.
Stock is now under $4 and I am out.
I have found this site to be Birds of a Feather when it comes to 'stupid'.
+++
Never let it be said that hbm doesn't know the difference between "your" and "you're."
+++
Or the difference between apostrophes and quotes. Or the need to put the period inside the closing quote (apostrophe) and not outside it--except in the U.K.
D&D Bar & Grill
927 NW Bond St, Bend, OR 97701-2705
Home of the $1 hand job. Next to Bledsoes Cigar Club. The upstairs is now the most expensive penthouse condo's in the city.
Watch that address range BP.
BP - Another big B of C investment in downtown Bend, to the tune of $2M. This one to Bond Street Partners LLC, secured by 956 Bond St, on 7/28/08.
Homer will like these people read carefully, its a 'pool' of Sisters 'investors'.
A new player in local finance?
Investors plan to start nationally chartered bank in Bend
By Andrew Moore / The Bulletin
Published: August 11. 2008 4:00AM PST
Crown Point National Bank, a new bank proposed by area investors to be based in Bend, would be headed by this group of executives, who gathered Friday inside the bank’s future downtown headquarters at 956 N.W. Bond St., site of the former Washington Mutual Home Loan Center. They are, from left, Jolyn English, Bill Henle, Donald Kalkofen, Jesse Averette and Andrew Gerlicher, the proposed bank’s president and CEO.
| order photo
Crown Point National Bank, a new bank proposed by area investors to be based in Bend, would be headed by this group of executives, who gathered Friday inside the bank’s future downtown headquarters at 956 N.W. Bond St., site of the former Washington Mutual Home Loan Center.
A group of investors led by Sisters resident Elijah Aldinger has proposed creating a full-service commercial bank that would be headquartered in downtown Bend with a branch in Portland. The proposed bank, which would be called Crown Point National Bank, would specialize in servicing the banking needs of small businesses, said the bank’s president and CEO, Andrew Gerlicher.
“This is a great place to open a bank,” Gerlicher said. “People are discovering Bend, have been and continue to, and the opportunities are real and, we think, dependable.”
CACB loan, $2,125,000to Cascade Holdings LLC, secured by 2705 NE Conners Ave. June 11, 2008.
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BP, seems to be chamber-of-commerce, and medical offices, and fairly well occupied, must have been a REFI?
1303 SW Lake Road, Redmond
Slater Communications & Electronics Inc
Another CACB construction loan, $1,395,000, secured by 1303 SW Lake Road, Redmond, on May 28, 2008. Builders Roger Dryden and Bob Eberhard.
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Sounds like two-way cop radios for prison comm, this might be a Garzini gig up in Redmond?
Now I thought this was pretty darn funny on the walk away post on bend economy bulletin board but boy do they have a sense of humor http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZ0mPkKifWQ
look at those gogo boots and if i had half of that ladys energy umm 1978 those people are in their mid to late fifty's now
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