Sunday, August 10, 2008

IHTBYB Outted on BendBB? I Can't Believe It's Not Butter!

Well, we knew it here first from marge, and The Bulletin reported it Friday that medians in Bend got killed last month.

Median prices, sales mostly down in July

Bend's median sales price for a single-family home in July dropped to $287,000, down nearly 9 percent from June, according to the latest Bratton Report, released Thursday.
July's median was about 16 percent less than the July 2007 median of $343,000.
The number of sales last month also dipped almost 9 percent from June, to 104. There were 152 sales in July 2007.
The median sales price per square foot, considered by many real estate experts to be a better measure of value, dropped to $152 in July from $166 in June, the lowest since July 2005.
...


Of the homes sold in Bend in July, the majority -- 29 -- were priced between $200,000 and $250,000. And additional 23 homes were priced between $250,000 and $300,000. Two homes sold for more than $1 million.

In Redmond, the median price in July dipped to $215,000 on sales of 42 homes. The median price per square foot rose nearly 8 percent, from $127 in June to $137 in July.
In other areas of Deschutes County, the median prices for July were $327,000 in Sisters, on sales of 7 homes; $564,000 in Sunriver, on sales of two homes; and $160,000 in La Pine, on sales of two homes.


You can see that the high end stuff is hardly selling at all. It looks like the mix has definitely downshifted. Sunriver has all but dried up. La Pine as well.

This was supposed to be our swan song, the time after we had hit rock bottom back in April. Supposed to be doing great, right?

No, well after this month, you will quickly watch things go to hell. How far? I found this piece regarding rent-to-value ratios:

Rent or Buy: Craigslist and Realtor.com
by Brent Wilson
Reochronicle.com/blog

Home ownership is a deeply ingrained desire for most Americans. Who wants to brag about how nice their rental house is? Besides, home interest is tax deductible, so it isn’t really money, right?

Normally it’s a good idea to buy if prices are in line with rents, but in many areas prices have shot way ahead of rents, although things are coming back into line.

To compare rents and home prices, what follows is a comparison of home prices from Realtor.com and rental prices from Craigslist. This study is very unscientific, since it isn’t normally possible to compare the exact house for rent with the exact same house for sale–normally a house is either for sale or for rent.

However, I’ll try to include similar sized and similar looking houses within a given city, at least based on descriptions and pictures.

Thousand Oaks , CA

http://ventura.craigslist.org/apa/776302660.html. This listing on Craigslist is going for $3900 per month, which includes gardener and pool service. The house
is 3000 square feet, 3 car garage, etc. This works out to $46,800 per year.

Realtor.com lists houses with 2700+ square feet in Thousand Oaks starting at roughly $675,000, on up to above $900,000. At the lowest price of $675,000, the total cost to own would run roughly $67,500 per year (7% mortgage, 1% property tax, 1% maintenance, 1% for insurance and general upkeep). A house more comparable to the one on Craigslist would probably run around $750,000-$800,000, or around $75,000 per year to own. Tack on $4000 a year or so for gardener and pool service for a total of $79,000 per year.

Ventura, CA

http://ventura.craigslist.org/apa/776165804.html. This house on Craigslist is renting for $2250 per month, 4 bedroom, 2 bath with a 2 car garage. Works out to
$27,000 per year.

Realtor.com lists a number of 4 bedroom, 2 bath homes in Ventura which look fairly similar, in the $400,000 price range. This would work out to roughly $40,000 per year to own.

Santa Rosa/Rohnert Park, CA

http://sfbay.craigslist.org/nby/apa/776298792.html. This house is in Rohnert Park, just next to Santa Rosa, CA. 4 bedroom, 2 1/2 bath, 2 car garage, rents for $2300 per month, $27,600 per year.

Realtor.com lists a number of fairly similar looking houses for $375,000-$450,000, or roughly $40,000 a year.

Reno, Nevada

http://reno.craigslist.org/apa/776371760.html. $1600 a month will get you this brand-new looking house in Reno, 3/2/2. $19,200 per year.

Realtor.com lists a number of similar looking houses for around $200,000, so this might be one place where it could pay to buy.

Minneapolis, MN

http://minneapolis.craigslist.org/apa/776338785.html. Just for variety, here’s a split level 4 bedroom in the Minneapolis area for $1500 a month, or $18,000 per year.

Realtor.com lists a number of similar looking houses for around $200,000, so this might be another area where it could pay to buy (if you can handle the winter heat bills).

Roseburg, Oregon

http://roseburg.craigslist.org/apa/773994070.html. OK, so Roseburg is out in the boonies, but this house rents for only $850 a month and looks like new. $10,200 per year.

Realtor.com lists a number of fairly similar houses for $175,000-$200,000 or so in the Roseburg area. Annual cost $18,000 or so annually, so it seems better by far to rent around there.

Do Your Own Comparison

You can do your own comparison in your area by just multiplying your rent by twelve, and dividing the purchase price by ten, to get a very rough figure to compare.

This is assuming you have a good landlord who performs repairs on a timely basis, and that you are considering buying a well built house that doesn’t need much work.

Realtor.com is a good place to look for comparable houses for sale, since it normally includes the local multi-list. Craigslist has a good selection of rental properties, although it has been my experience that you can usually find a place for less than on Craigslist by driving around, calling yard signs, local newspaper ads, etc.

If you really want to compare prices, it’s probably best to just compare cash outlay between renting and owning. Over time, if you own, you will probably end up spending unexpected money on furnaces, air conditioners, sewer lines, water heaters, etc, and this amount of money will probably about equal whatever tax benefit you might have gotten from the mortgage interest deduction (if you are lucky). Have you checked lately what it costs to replace a roof? Or a furnace? When you rent, you don’t have to worry about what it costs–the landlord does.

Lots of people rush into a home purchase without thinking about how long they might stay in a place. In general, if you think you could move within 3 or 4 years, you might just be better off renting. When you rent, you don’t have to pay 6-10% to move (Realtor’s commission plus a fee to every real estate service provider within 5 miles). When you rent, you just pack up and go.

Overbuilding

In many areas, way too many homes have been built and can’t be sold, so property owners are renting out brand new houses to at least get something coming in.

If you can work it, you might be able to get a great deal on renting a brand new house for a few years, maybe for less than 2/3 of what it would cost you to buy. It might pay to drive around some areas where new houses have been built recently to see if you can find a rental.

Landlords Provide a Real Service

Landlords provide a valuable service–they provide you with a suitable place to call home, without you having to go into debt for decades to buy it. They also repair everything that needs it (at least most do), pay the taxes and insurance, and sometimes even take care of the yard and pay the water bill.

When you get ready to move, you just give notice, pack up, and move! Some landlords will even rent to you for less than their house payment! Renting isn’t for everybody, but it makes sense to lots of people, especially if you can rent a place for considerably less than it would cost to buy, without tying up your money or going into debt.

Regardless of what you do, it can pay to do a little off the cuff comparison of costs before you buy or rent, just to see how things stack up in your area.

Incredibly, rents in Bend compare closest to Roseburg, where they advise Not Buying. And that's for homes in the $175-200K range! That bodes ill for Bend.

This all goes back to ROI that is far below comparable investments. ROI on Bend homes while starting to rise recently, is still far below almost anything in the US.

Don't think that $287K is a bargain, just because we haven't seen prices like these since Summer 2005. It is looking more & more like sub $200K medians will ultimately happen here.

The Outrage of The Week has to AGAIN source from Don Bau-humper:

“We had a lease-back program on our project out at Eagle Crest,” said Pennbrook founder Don Bauhofer. “With the downturn in the market, the company just ran out of money.”

Nevada investor Chad Osorno purchased two homes from Pennbrook in January and February 2007.

He entered into a lease-back agreement with Highland Investors in February, according to his suit.

The companies stopped paying the $3,279 per month rent in November, Osorno’s suit says, and he’s seeking $69,158 in rent, late fees and interest.

You wonder what the THOUSANDS of incorporations that spiraled into the stratosphere over the past 5 years, that's what this is. Sleazeballs like Bauhofer enter into these agreements with almost NO ACCOUNABILITY for paying you.

Should have asked WHAT Highland Partners is? What happened to that MONEY? This thing SOLD you the houses, got a big wad of cash, and then shortly after DEFAULTED.

Where's that BIG WAD of money? That should have remained in the partnership that sold those houses, and it was almost certainly bled out to Bau-humper himself.

This guy was 100% scammed.

Of course, these are some Nevada investors who had no business swimming with the Cent OR sharks. A Sale-Leaseback of a $500K house? WTF? Here's the Humper:

But Bauhofer said the agreements ceased to make sense as the homes’ values dropped from more than $550,000 to less than $400,000. The companies, out of money, stopped making payments, Bauhofer said.

Huh? He sold a $500K house to the guy, he's GOT THE MONEY. Now, he says since the house he SOLD has gone down in value... no wait, it's not that, it's because the shell company that engaged the transaction has run out of money, that he cannot fulfill the transaction.

That's like Dunc saying he can't make his lease payments cuz the building has gone down in value. But then later flip-flops claiming poverty.

See, I have a feeling if some "normal" tried this stunt, and they were hauled into court, they'd LOSE BIG. If some shopkeeper downtown tried this, they'd declare the rent + damages DUE & PAYABLE before they even walked in the court room.

But Bauhofer will probably get away with it. It was a 100% SCAM SALE. There was NO LEASE BACK. Bau-humper had about 2 shits worth of intent to pay this guy his money. He inflated the price, with a commensurate PACK OF LIES about money he was going to pay the dude.

Standard Ponzi Scheme. 100% lies about a HUGE PAYOFF to get your money up front.

OK, moving on.

Lookie here! Little old BendBubble2 is getting some play in the Source:

Real Estate's Dead, But Weeds Look Healthy

Is it just our imagination, or is Bend looking weedier (and seedier) than usual this summer?

A month ago the BendBubble2 blog commented on the proliferation of weeds around town, attributing it to the real estate bust.

“Problem is Bend is hucked-full of empty houses,” wrote “I Hate to Burst Your Bubble.” “These things aren't getting minimal maintenance, they're getting none. And you'd think that after a long, cold winter, things would brighten, and all would be well, and that at the very least, the landscape here would ‘stage’ itself. After all, many front yards are meant to mirror desert scrub. But it's not working out that way.”

IHTBYB proves his point by posting a bunch of photos of really butt-ugly weed-filled yards (plus a lot of colorful, funny and obscene comments).

Why can’t the city do something about all this unsightly – and potentially dangerous – overgrowth that threatens to make Bend look like some 1930s Oklahoma dust bowl town? We spoke with Bend Deputy Fire Chief Gary Marshall to get the straight skinny.

The city has an ordinance requiring property owners to cut down weeds if they become a fire hazard, he explained. The problem, as always, is money.

If the fire department finds high weeds growing within 10 feet of any building, tree or fence it will give the property owner 14 days to cut them down, Marshall said. If the weeds are still not cut after two weeks the owner generally will get “a few more days” to do it.

Finally, the fire department can ask the city public works department to send out a crew to cut the weeds and bill the property owner for the work. The city also can slap the owner with a $250 fine, Marshall said. Trouble is, budget cuts resulting from the real estate collapse mean there aren’t enough city crews to get the job done.

There’s another problem, Marshall said: “We have so many property owners that don’t live in the state. We send them certified letters [telling them to cut their weeds] and we don’t get a reply. We really have no way to go after these people.”

The Eye has no way of knowing how many of those out-of-state weed scofflaws are former real estate “investors” (aka speculators, aka flippers) who just took off for points south, north, west and east when the Bend market went belly-up – but we suspect there are more than a few.

Anyway, if you spot a weed problem you can call the city’s weed control hotline, 541-317-3002, Ext. 3. Good luck.

This exacerbates the problem of selling. It's like a foreclosure in your neighborhood; it brings down the value of your house, even if you're down the street a ways.

Head over to Forum Meadows, and there aren't even fences to break up the sea of weeds. Head over to mapbend.com, and look at Forum Meadows; listings are so thick, you can drill down far enough.

From Nov 18, 2007:

How builders plan to face housing slide

Some aren’t waiting to find the bottom before they jump ship.

Buena Vista Custom Homes, a Lake Oswego-based company that billed itself as one of the nation’s fastest-growing builders when it moved into the Bend market in early 2006, announced Thursday that it will put all 200 of its unsold homes in Oregon up for auction next month, including 29 in Forum Meadows, its brand-new east-Bend subdivision.

“We were overaggressive and too slow to react to the changes in the market, and that has created an oversupply of finished homes,” Buena Vista President Roger Pollock said in a company press release. “Buyers are going to get amazing deals, but we simply have to reduce our inventory.”

Then March 20, 2008:

Bend subdivision faces foreclosure

Elsewhere in Bend, Buena Vista Custom Homes has rented 18 of the 29 homes in its Forum Meadows development near St. Charles Bend since efforts to sell the homes in mid-December at auction failed to produce a single sale, said Mike Higgins, a spokesman for the Lake Oswego-based builder.

“It was done in a loss position, but it was better than the alternative,” Higgins said. “If we can’t sell them, we’ve got to do something. We looked to auction the homes, but it didn’t work. Builders right now are just trying to make the mess go away.”

Lemme guess: Buena Vista Homes WISHES they had SOLD these dogs at auction way back when. Remember, he accused bidders of trying to "steal" these homes with their PATHETIC bids.

Now these shit-tacular STD's have gone to seed. There should be some sort of Weed Formula for calculating how the height & thickness of weeds in a neighborhood discount area home prices.

By my reckoning, Forum Meadows & several other places will be nearly invisible soon, swallowed up by an onslaught of weeds.

Another interesting stat I ran across this week. Go to Realtytrac.com, and click on Oregon on the map on the home page.

Yes, you see that "1 in 398 homes in foreclosure" gradient, The Highest Foreclosure Rate In the State?

Yes, that would be Deschutes County. More foreclosures per 1,000 homes than anywhere in Oregon.

The Source: Why don't you cover that? I ask you because I know full well The Bulletin would NEVER cover that.

For perspective, the lowest foreclosure rate is in Lake County, with a mere 1 foreclosure per 12, 138 homes. The Meth-ford market is in 2nd place, with a still mild 1:559 ratio.

And of course, we are nowhere near cycle bottoms.

OK, moving on to Rent & Invest The Diff: Well, it had a pretty good week.

I bought Lithia Motors several weeks ago, a little Medford-based car dealership with 110 locations. My own rationale was pretty simple: If these dealerships are worth about $5MM, then they might have rock-bottom cycle-low valuations of $500-600MM, net of debts & S/T payables.

Well, Lithia announced earnings Friday, and they were horrendous. Right?

Then why was the stock up 20%?

Lithia Motors Announces Second Quarter 2008 Results

MEDFORD, Ore.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--

Lithia Motors, Inc. (NYSE:LAD) today announced that net income from continuing operations in the second quarter of 2008 was ten cents per diluted share, excluding after-tax adjustments for asset impairments of $243.4 million (or $12.27 per share) and a net loss from discontinued operations of $2.2 million (or ten cents per share).

Then down in the dregs:

Under SFAS No. 142, "Goodwill and Other Intangible Assets," the Company is required to perform a goodwill impairment analysis on an interim basis if certain events or circumstances indicate that it is more likely than not that an impairment loss has been incurred. Recent restructuring actions taken, including the placing of stores up for sale, an adverse change in business climate, reduced earnings forecast and the significant decrease in the Company's share price required goodwill to be tested on an interim basis in the second quarter. The Company performed the required steps for impairment analysis and concluded that the entire balance of goodwill was impaired. The Company recorded a non-cash impairment charge to write-off the entire balance of goodwill of $210.6 million after tax in the second quarter, of which $24.8 million is classified in discontinued operations. In the quarter, the Company also recorded a non-cash asset impairment charge of $32.8 million after tax related to certain indefinite-lived intangible assets (franchise value) and other long-lived assets, of which $10.0 million is classified in discontinued operations.

They recorded a HUGE $210MM loss from the goodwill on their balance sheet. Did they actually lose $210MM this quarter? No, just an accounting entry.

But it creates a HUGE tax loss carryforward, essentially making most if not all of Lithia's earnings from now on, virtually tax-free. And you can see that they are in small-scale liquidation mode:

On June 2nd, 2008, the Company announced restructuring plans that would generate annualized savings of $18 million. Additionally, the Company outlined a list of steps it is taking to right-size and realign its business. Mr. DeBoer continued, "Those cost savings have all been completed, and we are now on track for $22 million in total cost reductions - as we have recently added an additional $4 million in planned annualized cost cuts. Since the beginning of the year, we have reduced the outstanding debt on our credit line from $184 million to $138 million. We have sold one domestic store and have agreements on six of the thirteen remaining store divestitures. An additional two domestic stores are pending sale as a result of an unsolicited offer, showing a demand still exists for domestic auto retail stores. These store sales are estimated to generate over $35 million in total net cash proceeds."
"Through the second quarter, financing of real estate has raised net proceeds of approximately $65 million. The depreciated value of our real estate portfolio in continuing operations has book value of over $300 million, and we are confident it would appraise for significantly more; we have real estate debt of approximately $220 million - leaving substantial room for additional financing to be completed throughout the remainder of the year. This does not include $22.8 million in development properties and our airplane which are held for sale - many of which have pending buy-sell agreements."

It's not entirely clear whether he's saying that Lithia will clear $35MM on six store, or 7. Either way, it looks like they are being forced to sell at cycle-low valuations of about $6MM/store.

And these stores are fairly decent sized operations. Lithia grosses $3.2BB on these 110 stores, or about $30MM per. So that $6MM sale price is actually a bargain... maybe.

So Lithia created a HUGE tax loss carryforward Friday, announced $.10/earnings after severe cost reductions, and showed they can sell dealerships at prices that put a valuation on the whole shebang at around $500-600MM, about half of it distributable tax free.

The market value of Lithia is $108MM.

So why do IHTBYB tout his stock? Well, I have said repeatedly that Rent & Invest The Diff is THE DOMINANT investing theme for Cent OR. Can't buy RE, you'll get killed. Can't buy bonds, you'll end up with toxic shock with the crap being sold (and now bought back) by Citicorp, USB, and others.

That leaves stocks & commodities. I faded the oil frenzy hard, because I saw $150 crude hitting a demand wall. I personally am consuming FAR LESS. people are engaging in some wholesale behavior changes that will be tough to undo in the S/T.

We're still consuming to much, and I still think inflation is a Big Problem, but commodities as an investment medium is black hole to me. I know me, and I would be easily scared out of a position. Besides, it's leveraged to much. Commodities is too much like pure gambling.

So I am buying small-scale, workout-situations that are negative delta on oil. But their real, and required feature is Deep Value. I saw stocks that hit 80-90% discounts from fair value in mid-July. And I bought several, not in huge amounts, and I scaled down.

I missed a few, such as US Airways & Six Flags which had a One Day Wonder implosion.

But I remain with what I've got, they are situations that I've studied to the extent I am able, and I still feel like they have a rough row to hoe, but they seem very undervalued in some instances.

This is what works for me. It may not be good for you. I can only recommend a widely diversified domestic & foreign blend of stocks & bonds (corp & gov't) for people who want minimal risks per the highest unit of return. This works.

Finally, some are saying that I have been disrespectful to recently deceased Cent OR RE participants. Really?

OK, use your browser search feature (Ctrl-F) right now and look for these people's names.

There is NOTHING derogatory about any of these people. NOTHING.

Have I said the RE game they were involved with is full of sleaze, slime, scum, Ponzi Scheme con-men? Well, maybe not, but it is. These guys were playing with sharks.

But I never disparaged these guys. I disagree with their choice of investments. But I never said anything against them. Look for "Audia" on this page:

  • This McDonald guy buys Meyers chunk of the Shire for an unknown amount in May, and not even 2 months later, jumps over Benham falls? Really? That's an awful long distance to cover from doubling up on REd, to committing hari kari, in such a short time.
  • And Jay Audia shot himself? This is another vulture job in the works that seems to have driven it's principle to his grave awful fast.
  • It's getting awful strange. Start combing the obits. Audia supposedly shot himself, a crime so easily done by someone else, a 2 year old could have planned it. McDonald's story just doesn't add up at all.
  • Anyway, be concerned about your privacy. I'm not AT ALL convinced the Audia & McDonald deaths are suicides. There's a LOT of money being lost, and it would not surprise me in the least that deluded RE speculators would approach some seedier types to do a refi, to bridge the financing gap & keep a project alive.
  • I don't know who this Jay Audia guy is, but he swooped in on what is now the Mirada parcel, bought it at a pretty good discount, and was going to make low-end laborer shacks. We've talked about this in the past actually. I've actually put pictures of Mirada right here in this blog.
  • Apparently Mirada, at steep land price discounts, still did not work out. And this Audia guy took it to heart. Too bad. But it illustrates a point.
  • Jay Audia, I'm sure was a nice guy. But he bought into The Bend Dream, like thousands of others. But it's a DREAM folks. This place doesn't really have a sustainable economy.
  • And it's because the media WON'T let us BURN. Audia in the papers as a WARNING? No. Put out that fire. What's after Audia then? Someone going postal?
  • See, Jay Audia is the collateral damage of this firestorm. There will ALWAYS be losses. Anyone whose been in Cent OR for the Summer season KNOWS there's always going to be a spark.
  • But no one wants anyone to know that. They think that ARTIFICIAL CONTAINMENT is a sustainable practice, it is not. Jay Audia killed Jay Audia. But in some measure John Costa killed Audia. KTVZ killed Audia. Hell, even Alan Greenspan had a hand in it.
  • Jay Audia would be alive today were the NASDAQ recession allowed to run its course. But no, Greenspan had to resurrect the Cali-Banger ASAP. Who cares about Round 2, that's Not My Watch.
  • Drugs. Business Closures. Murder. Suicide. Speed traps. Bank failures. Homocide. Fannie. Freddie. Foreclosures. The Plaza. Meth dens. Robbery. Embezzlement. Fraud. Jay Audia.


Here's someone's reaction on BendBB:

Up until a few weeks ago, I thought a person had every right to be anonomous on the web, but seeing IHTBYB's writings about Jay Audia changed my mind. When anonymity is used to cause unneccessary and unwarranted pain to a family, it is much like using the right of free speech to yell FIRE in a crowded theater.

Huh?

You know, whoever you are, if Audia is a friend of yours, I'm sorry for your loss. I know people who knew him, and I heard he was a nice guy.

But there is NOTHING in this blog disparaging the guy.

"Jay Audia, I'm sure was a nice guy."

I don't know the guy, but I assume the best.

You are missing the point. I want people to WAKE THE FUCK up. Is it worth KILLING yourself over a RE deal gone bad? I would say HELL NO.

It WAS a warning shot that there may exist the possibility that there are some unscrupulous types who will attempt to engage you in a transaction. That is what happens when the money starts flowing, it attracts scammers, grifters, and in some cases much worse.

This is a person who wanted to distort the FACTS as much as possible, and try to take a punitive action against me. Of course, I would never confirm or deny such silliness.

But you might want to consider the idea that outting someone will be done erroneously. Certain situations can develop in situations like that, and they can have fairly unfortunate circumstances for those involved. These people own arms in abundance, and they don't take kindly to unpleasant strangers at their door.

The Eastside don't abide that shit, motherfucker.

I guess what I find most unbeleivable about this, is that people at first blush seem to believe this! Personally, I would take any such pronouncements with a HUGE grain of salt. My skepticism would be nearly 100%. Besides, what if it is correct? How will I ever KNOW that? What would I do anyway?

If you want to "out" someone using some sort of warped logic, that is your business. I guess all I can say is I disagree with it. Fuck, Buster has equated me & Dunc, me & Tim, and basically me & most other people on this thing. Fuck, it's like it's me talking to myself on this thing.

The only thing that worries me about this? Comment from BendBB:

It's very dangerous to believe an address posted on the Internet. Someone can be trying to get back at someone and post an address.

And if anyone gets hurt or harassed, the lawmen will be looking at IP. If you hid your IP, they'll be looking at ISP records.


Posting someone's address in this context can easily be construed as some sort of retaliation. Why else would you do it? Try to imagine the following scenario:

1) This person is NOT ME.
2) They are well-armed.
3) They are not pleasantly predisposed to a hostile visitor on their doorstep spewing bullshit.

Your little outting WILL come back to you. You'll need to be explaining to a Judge why you felt you needed to initiate a series of events that may have an unpleasant outcome. Think about it.

And whoever did this will almost certainly construe such statements as a threat of some sort. Of course it is not. It is a POSSIBLE consequence of YOUR ACTIONS, not mine.

"Outting" someone is an action so idiotic & fraught with negative consequences, you have to wonder about person doing it. I actually encourage people to go read BendBB's thread on this (anon proxy, of course). The comments are, as usual, the most interesting part.

Anyway, I guess stuff like this is inevitable. All I can say is I have respect for the dead, no matter the circumstances. Audia & McDonald and others MAY have made choices in the investment arena that contributed to their demise. MAYBE. If so, I just disagree with their decision to kill themselves. IT AIN'T THAT BAD. My Lord. It's just fucking real estate. Your life is WAY more important than that.

All I am saying is If You Are About To Invest In Something That Could REMOTELY Cause You To Kill Yourself:

DON'T.

258 comments:

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Anonymous said...

Below is how to disable HOMER-SHIT for windows, following I'll do it for mac, note also you need to frequently go through BB2 source, and map every fucking .com script kiddy to localhost aka 127.0.0.1

*

You can disable/remove the advertisements by doing the following, which also disables the use of 'tracking' via Google Analytics.

C:\WINDOWS\system32\drivers\etc

open the file 'hosts' with Notepad and add the following entries and file save

127.0.0.1 media.fastclick.net
127.0.0.1 google-analytics.com
127.0.0.1 www.google-analytics.com
127.0.0.1 www.redkawa.com

Anonymous said...

Below is what it would look like for MAC, note earlier I showed for windows, note below the list is longer, note almost all of these domains are enabled spybots by HOMER.

BESIDES it being fucking stupid, the CUNT must spend ALL his time looking at the fucking analytic data points, but then again, he's a fucking MBA, he can spreadsheet this generated data, and beat-off.

Note one of the worst that HOME-BOY has enabled is urchin, this SHIT is really NO fucking different than what BENDBB does, its just that homer gets away with it like HBM says, about the masses BEING FUCKING STOOOPID.

*

computer:/private/etc root# cat hosts
##
# Host Database
#
# localhost is used to configure the loopback interface
# when the system is booting. Do not change this entry.
##
127.0.0.1 localhost
255.255.255.255 broadcasthost
::1 localhost
# [Google Inc]
127.0.0.1 pagead.googlesyndication.com
127.0.0.1 pagead2.googlesyndication.com #[Google AdWords]
127.0.0.1 adservices.google.com
127.0.0.1 ssl.google-analytics.com #[urchinTracker]
127.0.0.1 www.google-analytics.com #[Google Analytics]
127.0.0.1 imageads.googleadservices.com #[Ewido.TrackingCookie.Googleadservices]
127.0.0.1 imageads1.googleadservices.com
127.0.0.1 imageads2.googleadservices.com
127.0.0.1 imageads3.googleadservices.com
127.0.0.1 imageads4.googleadservices.com
127.0.0.1 imageads5.googleadservices.com
127.0.0.1 imageads6.googleadservices.com
127.0.0.1 imageads7.googleadservices.com
127.0.0.1 imageads8.googleadservices.com
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Anonymous said...

So above is how you disable ALL homers spybots.

This way you can still read the site, and post comments, but HOMER don't get to see whats inside your under-wear.

Anonymous said...

HOMER says mea-culpa, how me know I spy on you, ... Well doing above, and NOT being stoopid you protect your self, and keep HOME-BOY honest. Note every fucking spybot logs, and when HOLLERN finally requests all the logs, they'll know exactly where to go based on these sources, KEEP HOMER HONEST, KEEP HIM IN THE DARK.

***

On the more popular subject of dumbing down, is spying and bringing our computers to a grinding halt.

While not addressed last post by KING-CUNT homer, that he has 50 spybots and trojan horses on this fucking site the issue not addressed for a year is HOW DO I KILL THIS SHIT, as homer add's NEW fucking TROJANS WEEKLY to his site, you must manage the fucking list.

Which leads to the question? BENDBB is a know trojan with explicit IP logging, while BB2 can easily be disable if you study the following.

The rhetorical is/was, was HOMER really outed? Or was this a trojan decoy duck move?

Anonymous said...

iberals produce little or nothing. They like to govern the producers and decide what to do with the production.

That must explain why the red states get more from the federal government than they pay in taxes while the blue states pay more in taxes than they get back. IOW the red-staters are getting welfare from us blue-staters.

Liberals believe Europeans are more enlightened than Americans are.

And they're right.

That is why most of the Liberals remained in Europe when Conservatives were coming to America.

The Founding Fathers were liberals (actually, radicals). Today's conservatives would have been Tories.

Who produced this load of horse shit? Does he have an IQ higher than his shoe size?

Every improvement in the well-being of ordinary Americans that this country has made -- EVERY SINGLE ONE -- was the result of efforts by LIBERALS (progressives) while conservatives fought them tooth and nail. Anti-child labor laws, consumer protection laws, the minimum wage, anti-pollution laws, the 40-hour week, Social Security, Medicare -- if conservatives had their way, NONE of these would ever have happened.

It's the role of liberals to change things; it's the role of conservatives (by definition) to stop change.

August 14, 2008 8:19 AM
Anonymous hbm said...

Two excellent books are The Deliberate Dumbing Down of America, by Charlotte Thomson Iserbyt (Conscience Press, Revenna Ohio, 2001), and The Dumbing Down of America, by John Taylor Gotta. Both books trace this process to the impact of education

I hope they give equal credit/blame to our debased popular culture and news media, which evidently believe their readers/viewers have the mentality of 8-year-olds.

Anonymous said...

hbm,

except for the pussy most here are neither left nor right, and most here understand quite well that both sides are manufactured,

Anonymous said...

no-script, which you can download for firefox is another way to disable almost all of homers spybots.

you should be using firefox, and have it configured to 'delete all' everytime you start up,

if you use no-script a plug-in, it will take care of most this garbage, you can also fine tune,

the reason I like 'hosts' editing, is your disable the shit at the lowest level of the TCP-IP stack, which means that any request goes to NULL, with no-script there is always the chance that someone used your computer and got it into an everything-ok state, but going to the 'hosts' level you basically telling the operating system that it can never use taboo sites ever.

These days with all kinds of programs and such running and spying, ... of course too you can also map physical IP's to 127... as quite often the HOMER-SPY types will use explicit IP's rather than 'names' which are easy to find, its easy to know what is what, just use your cmd-line prompt to 'tracert' a suspicious IP, and you can find where it goes.

Paranoia? Yes, Andy Grove says "ONLY THE PARANOID SURVIVE".

Anonymous said...

Let's be honest 'dumb sells'.

Sex sells.

WSJ is written on a 7th grade level.

Oregonian 5th, and most likely the BULL at a 3rd.

The SORE? It has to be written at a 4th grade level, otherwise their readers would be gone.

The mass merchandising didn't start until the 1920's, and even before that not all were educated. Probably HITLERS people were the first to take new media to political power, now ALL do it.

It's always been up to the individual to edooocate dim-self, its always been the case to not wait for the 'state' to edoocate you.

I think probably the biggest think is self-reliance, back in the day Emerson & Thoreau wrote a lot about US self-reliance, today we have universal nanny-ism.

We have met the enemy, and he is US.

It's not left vs right, nor top vs bottom, its CORRUPTION.

That's WHY I'm so hard on TRIBE-HOLLERN.

Anonymous said...

These days with all kinds of programs and such running and spying, ... of course too you can also map physical IP's to 127... as quite often the HOMER-SPY types will use explicit IP's rather than 'names' which are easy to find, its easy to know what is what, just use your cmd-line prompt to 'tracert' a suspicious IP, and you can find where it goes.

Paranoia? Yes, Andy Grove says "ONLY THE PARANOID SURVIVE".

*

This is how all the BENDBB stuff works all the spybots are hard-written to logging centers in new-jersey using physical IP's.

Anonymous said...

Two excellent books are The Deliberate Dumbing Down of America, by Charlotte Thomson Iserbyt (Conscience Press, Revenna Ohio, 2001), and The Dumbing Down of America, by John Taylor Gotta. Both books trace this process to the impact of education

I hope they give equal credit/blame to our debased popular culture and news media, which evidently believe their readers/viewers have the mentality of 8-year-olds.

*

HBM, why don't you read them and find out?

When are you going to write a history of yourself in this town for the BOYZ?

Do we have to fucking pay you?

tim said...

I'm assuming that's "Ravenna," which is the county seat for people at Kent State. Lots of sightings of Bigfoot there, so it's like the NW in that way.

As for corruption, that's what kills an economy. You can have left or right or mixed gov't that all kick ass. It's corruption or lack of it that determines success.

Anonymous said...

Today sometime the Bulletin is supposed to come out about a BigFoot sighting near Sunriver this weekend. They say there are pictures.

Anonymous said...

It's always been up to the individual to edooocate dim-self, its always been the case to not wait for the 'state' to edoocate you.

I must respectfully disagree. We used to have a public education system in this country that did a pretty decent job of educating people. (I think it did a pretty decent job of educating me, although there was a lot of self-education too.) And many other countries still have public education systems that do a pretty decent job of educating their citizens. It ain't impossible.

Although I consider myself a liberal I lay most of the blame for the destruction of the American public education system at the feet of liberals with their emphasis on "self-esteem" bullshit instead of actually making kids learn stuff. Make a kid accomplish something and he'll have self-esteem. Stroking his ego without expecting him to learn anything just makes him lazy, dumb and conceited.

Anonymous said...

It's not left vs right, nor top vs bottom, its CORRUPTION.

That's WHY I'm so hard on TRIBE-HOLLERN.

*

Evil can only succeed when good men sit on their ass.

That said, Bend et-al is 'evil'

Anonymous said...

When are you going to write a history of yourself in this town for the BOYZ? Do we have to fucking pay you?

That would help a lot. ;^)

Anonymous said...

I must respectfully disagree. We used to have a public education system in this country that did a pretty decent job of educating people. (I think it did a pretty decent job of educating me, although there was a lot of self-education too.) And many other countries still have public education systems that do a pretty decent job of educating their citizens. It ain't impossible.

[ fucking myth when? for the blacks in the south? when HBM, quit fucking generalizing, no more sweeping generality's, the fact is at best people who used to graduate could read,rite,&rith; college was for less than 2% until post wwii, USA is & was always a penal colony. ]

Although I consider myself a liberal I lay most of the blame for the destruction of the American public education system at the feet of liberals with their emphasis on "self-esteem" bullshit instead of actually making kids learn stuff. Make a kid accomplish something and he'll have self-esteem. Stroking his ego without expecting him to learn anything just makes him lazy, dumb and conceited.

[ It's been WELL ESTABLISHED that NEA, or PUBLIC-ED UNIONS are MOST responsible for destroying PUB-ED. What you call 'self-esteem' is in fact a watering down, or make the teachers job easier, and the NEA made it so fucking easy that today most of the kids no longer learn how to read,rite,or rith. ]

Anonymous said...

When are you going to write a history of yourself in this town for the BOYZ? Do we have to fucking pay you?

That would help a lot

*

Well given that you work for the SORE for free, certainly you can write at least one 'manifesto' for us for free; call it the HBM years, and tell us how you saw Bend evolve, and rise and FALL.

These newbies, all here in the last ten years need real be to understand how Bend became what it IS.

Anonymous said...

corruption, that's what kills an economy. You can have left or right or mixed gov't that all kick ass. It's corruption or lack of it that determines success. - tim

*

Good people look the other way, or Bend, they're promised a percentage of the loot. Once the town is robbed, say here in BEND with over $2BILLION in SDC missing the town will never recover.

Toleration for outright theft, judges, city-hall, cops, city-staff, all getting tip's and special loans, ... You end up with BEND-OREGON.

Anonymous said...

I finally setup no-script with firefox, and now it take like a nano-second to load homers pig-site.

All I want is homer's text, no fucking pics, tubes, porn, or spybots. Just fucking text. No fucking gadgets, wizards, gomodules, or craigs-list. No fucking spy-logging, just text.

It was taking 5 minutes, and I have BendBroad's 10M/S package.

NoScript :: Firefox Add-ons
Add-ons extend Firefox, letting you personalize your browsing experience. ... Experts do agree: Firefox is really safer with NoScript ;-) ...
https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/722 - 30k - Cached - Similar pages
NoScript - JavaScript/Java/Flash blocker for a safer Firefox

Anonymous said...

Today's conservatives similarity to that rant is pretty much summed up in Dick Cheney. He shot his best friend with the gun. Then he started a war financed by China, and blamed the fiscal problems on "liberal" spending. Bush was a cheerleader who wouldn't have made it a mile without Daddy's money and connections. The problem is that "Conservatives" as described don't really exist in the government anymore.

Anonymous said...

Well given that you work for the SORE for free

I don't. But damn near. ;^)

Anonymous said...

Well given that you work for the SORE for free

I don't. But damn near. ;^)

*

You win, you have to buy everyone a beer.

Above about cheney/bush, shooting people, borrowing from china for a war, that's not lib/cons, that's corruption, and 'conservative movement' that eat's rush-limbaugh shit. Corp-USA has put the 'conservatives' to sleep with O'Reilly-etal, trickle down. Now the conservatives are fucked, and mad as hell.

The liberals are no better, O-BOMB-A is going to prove to be the best REPUG the REPUG's ever had, just like Clinton.

Anonymous said...

Today sometime the Bulletin is supposed to come out about a BigFoot sighting near Sunriver this weekend. They say there are pictures.

A couple of crackers in Georgia (USA) say they have a body of a dead Bigfoot but I haven't seen anything about Sunriver.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

http://benddenial.blogspot.com/

Gettin started on a new blog. Where I will post stats, sale info, and when I can get out from behind my desk, photos of how we welcome folks to Bend...smirk.
The angrybitch thing is past. I am still angry, but I can't look at those pictures. Bilbo, you might as well delete that one.

Anonymous said...

The shit is hitting the fan. http://innowners.com/

Anonymous said...

Re: 7th

"fillings" is teeth, "filings" is lsgal...

Anonymous said...

Re: 7th

"fillings" is teeth, "filings" is lsgal...

Anonymous said...

Marge,

Thanks for the UPD, I'll cut&paste EVERY FUCKING thing on bend-denial, and post @ angry-bend-bitch, IMHO there hasn't been a better name in 20 years.

p.s. Marge, tonight I'm drunk & horny

Anonymous said...

Bend IS better than anywhere else!

[ Hell yes, better than death-valley, and better than love-canal. ]

We have Quality of Life,
[ best government money can buy ] Quality Roundabouts,
[ designed by death-derby ]
Dead Bicylists, Suicidal investors/developers,
[ tier-3 in Bend? were you stupid? ]
what more could we ask for?
[ hollern-ville hotel ]
Oh, I know..Blue Sky, we have of ton of that in ask prices of homes for sale.
[30 years of inventory ]

Not as in 300 days of sunshine.
[ Smoke summer days, less thunder, less smog, yep, 65 'clear' days in Bend per year ]

Marge, Are you sure your not a horny REHO?

Anonymous said...

The shit is hitting the fan. http://innowners.com/

*

The fan hit the shit, but only because in BEND shit is over 8' feet high.

Yep, don't even think about buying any kind of condo in Bend. Thinking about buying a condo? Then this fan-shit-hitting website should make you realize that the Russian-Suburbs of Georgia are a lot safer and have less risk.

Anonymous said...

I hope you cunts are happy tonight, seems like we have lost our pussy.

Anonymous said...

It's slow, it could be the heat, it could be August, it could be vacation time at Cultus Lake.

That said, do you all realize tonight is the Bend Police & Judge Goose-Shit banquet?

Every year in August city-hall gathers all the precious goose-shit at Drake Park for this one night.

All in a big pile all of Bend's judges, cops, councilors, engorge themselves all night with goose-shit.

DVA/COBA provides the wine. EDCO the crackers.

It doesn't start until midnight. Don't miss out on one of the best Bend Party's in twenty years.

Out of town? No problem, next week on thursday eve, the Bend City Parks folk 'unleash' all the years worth of dog-shit in those little green barrels, and its ditto time, more of the same, aged dog-shit, wine, and crackers. Speak Up, and maybe you can be on the list.

Anonymous said...

Bilbo, you might as well delete that one.


*

The razor clams? The before/after BEND salon?

Marge, your razor clams are the talk of the town.

Besides, now that all the 'before' are leaving Bend, and soon, we'll only be stuck with the 'Bend After", shouldn't we at least show what you looked like when you arrived?

Anonymous said...

HBM,

You be the final judge.

angrybendbitch.blogspot.com

Tell me it ain't Bend.

BEND + Real_Estate = METH

Bewert said...

Re: METH

A bigger downtown for Sisters?
Proposed project calls for a mix of apartments and commercial space on the city's north end

Plans to develop a 10-acre property at the north end of Sisters could create four new city blocks with a mix of housing and commercial space next to the city’s new post office, city and real estate officials said Thursday.

The development, called Black Butte Crossing, would include 32,000 square feet of commercial space and up to 243 apartment units comprising roughly 340,000 square feet when built out over four to seven years, according to representatives of the project and plans filed with the city of Sisters.

The project, which would need to conform to the city’s 1880s Western-themed architectural standards, would provide rental housing and business services close to downtown for the city’s growing ranks of retail and tourism-related employees, said Peter Storton, principal broker of RE/MAX Town & Country Realty in Sisters.

Still awaiting city approval, the phased project could break ground by spring, said Storton, who is a broker for the project.

“We hope to put a bank in there and get title companies to move into one space,” Storton said. “It wouldn’t be a generalized retail space.”


Accountants, attorneys and service-type businesses such as a deli and coffee shop could occupy the commercial space, Storton said.

The development would follow construction of the new Sisters post office, which is located to the north of the planned development. Completion of the post office is expected by November, said Eric Porter, community development director for the city.

The city has a need for affordable rental housing for its growing population of lower-earning service workers, he said.

“We have quite a few retail-wage jobs that are on the lower-wage scale because of our tourism economy,” Porter said. “But we’re short on multifamily housing that’s affordable.”

Other new projects in the city’s west end include a new 43,000-square-foot Ray’s Food Place in the Outlaw Station development, 20,000 square feet of surrounding retail and a new South Valley Bank branch, Porter said. Ray’s is expected to open in November, he said.

The building activity is a good sign for the small community during tough economic times, said Shane Lundgren, developer of the 33-acre Sun Ranch Business Park, which is located across Barclay Avenue from the planned Black Butte Crossing.

Sun Ranch has sold 12 of its 20 lots, but no construction has occurred yet, Lundgren said.

The new post office will bring more traffic to the area, he said.

“It’s a great spot to be developing with the post office going in there,” Lundgren said of the new commercial and residential development. “Obviously, it’s good for Sun Ranch because it will generate interest in that part of town.”

Eventually, the apartments could be converted into condominiums, depending on market conditions, said Tia Lewis, a Bend attorney with Schwabe, Williamson & Wyatt, representing Portland-based Willamette Planning Group LLC, which is developing the project.

“It helps the city of Sisters attract business because there is housing for employees,” Lewis said.

Brent Keys, the manager of the development group, could not be reached for comment.

“The innovative part of this project is that it’s a flexible space,” Lewis said. “Many times the commercial space sits vacant. Initially, (all of the allotted residential space) will be used as residential space. It can be converted into commercial space later.”

Lewis and Storton could not provide an estimated cost of the project.

The city’s Planning Commission could review Black Butte Crossing’s application at its Sept. 18 meeting, Porter said.


Yep, we're fast-tracking this mofo!

Anonymous said...

If it looks like the city’s going broke, he said, “we [will] pull the plug on this.” - Councilor Peter Gramlich

*

Well the City is already 'BROKE'. Thus how broke does it have to be? The un-mentionable 'builders', 'good old-boys', 'boss-hoggs' whatever you want to call them are broke. They're going down, and they own 100% of all Bend Poly-Tick-Ian's ( blood sucking parasites ). Whether you call Clinton/Johnson 'left leaning' or Telfer/Capell 'right-leaning' both sides of the debate are owned by the 'good-old-boys'.

The 'good-old-boys' are sitting on 1,000's of acres of empty land around the city, land that can be sold to prospective tier-4 builders. Tier-1 was Hollern/Smith/Williams, Tier-2 Bauhofer,..., Tier-3 Audia, McDonald, ...; Tier-4 will most likely be targeted towards high-risk opportunity funds who will buy land from tier-1 boss hoggs, and then build using funds. It's a wonderful package. The Boss-Hoggs sell land that isn't moving, the funds build homes which keeps construction busy ( Capell-Knife/River ). The funds can be marketed on the premise that the good city of bend is 'paying fund investors to invest'. It's all a beautiful story. Trouble is nobody will buy the homes.

We have a ten year inventory, and now its going to become a twenty year inventory.

Tier-1 builders are broke, and need cash-flow, houses don't sell, that said tier-1 made their billions off selling worthless desert land in the first place, this is all they know. Teir-2 are sitting happy having sold to Tier-3. Tier-3 have for the most part committed suicide. Tier-4 will be faceless 'opportunity investors', aka fickle blood sucking parasites.

Some may say, "But where is this going?", tier-4 lose their money, the lots they buy will decrease in value, the new homes built will not sell. Tier-5 the city 'buys' 1,000's of empty homes at top-dollar prices using the 'left-leaning' argument of affordable-housing, the right-wing salivates with approval. Tier-6 the city goes bankrupt, and all the homes & lots are sold back to tier-1 boy's at penny's on the dollar.

In a generation after bend-bubble hysteria, amnesia takes place, tomorrows teir-1 become heirs to todays tier-1, they too own city-hall. Deja-Vu.

Welcome to Bend, Oregon. Nothing is ever new in Bend, the above is a cyclic re-occurence, has always been so, will always be so.

Anonymous said...

All that Bend is missing to date is Kristalnacht, or some kind of event where the brown-shirts go door to door to rob homes of their art and jewelery. Of course in Bend when the brown-shirts do begin, they'll have been privatized, and will get a percentage of their haul, not unlike Bends privatized parking ticket writers of today.

Herr Hollern has long had his own HOLLERN-SECURITY for enforcing HOA rules in such places like Awbrey, its not hard to expand. Hanging out clothes? Fifty lashes or forfeiture of property.

Anonymous said...

We have Quality of Life,
[ best government money can buy ] Quality Roundabouts,
[ designed by death-derby ]


The roundabouts are actually one of the few good things Bend has done in the past 15 or so years. They improve traffic flow and reduce accidents. Of course you DO have to take your head out of your ass when going through one and I realize that inconveniences a lot of people.

tim said...

I love the roudabouts, actually. Then there are accidents, they are rarely disabling or fatal. They slow traffic down.

Bad points are they are scary for bikes and pedestrians. And they back up like crazy at rush hour in busy places.

They confuse people from out of town. My dad went THE WRONG WAY on one. "I wanted to go left," he aid.

tim said...

I thought we had seasonally peaked on inventory a couple weeks ago (like every other year), but looking at Clive's chart, I'm beginning to wonder if 2008 doesn't mark the emergence of a new kind of desperate late-summer seller.

Anonymous said...

I love the roudabouts, actually. Then there are accidents, they are rarely disabling or fatal. They slow traffic down.

Bad points are they are scary for bikes and pedestrians. And they back up like crazy at rush hour in busy places.

*

THAT's exactly the FUCKING POINT, some of us are ped's and bikers, and they're death-traps, of course auto drivers don't get killed.

Many cycle folks and ped's ran over, and DEAD, Bend RE suicide DEAD.

FUCK AUTO's and people in them.

Anonymous said...

I'm beginning to wonder if 2008 doesn't mark the emergence of a new kind of desperate late-summer seller.

*

Could be we hit the sweet spot in GREATEST FOOL THEORY, remember it was supposed to come back for two years no. I think that all but the BEND-DEAD know its NOT coming back, sell now while you have a prayer, that is what's going on.

Anonymous said...

FUCK AUTO's and people in them.

*

Yes. Autos are evil. If autos were outlawed, only outlaws would have autos.

Long live the bicycle. They do make studded snow tires for bikes, but Les Schwabie don't carry them. You have to see BruceyPussy's man-wife for a set of those tires, at your local bikeshop.

Peds are also not evil. Peds are good for the economy. Especially peds shopping at Costco. I see many peds coming from Costco with Boxes of Bulk Items balanced on the backs like the Sherpas from Nepal. Did you know that France invented the pedestrian?

We could learn lots more from the French. Peds and bicycles. And Brie. And gay little silk scarves worn by manly men walking poodles and smoking their clove cigarettes.

Autos are evil and so are the people in them.

Bewert said...

From this weeks SORE:

Something Very Wrong With This Picture: Juniper Ridge plan doesn’t pass smell test

Written by Scott R. Siewert

Wednesday, 13 August 2008
While our fine City continues to paste yellow “smiley faces” over a myriad of problems at Juniper Ridge, The Bulletin provides front page coverage for a miniscule 10 employee (no new job) candidate for property there. Taxpayers should start asking penetrating questions regarding how much this will cost after the shellacking we took from Les Schwab along with the following:

1. State of the Union at JR

Preface: Last December Jim Clinton said, and I quote, that “as time goes on, all of these forces have come to bear which will likely lead to a dumbed-down mediocre project. I keep wondering if the mess we’re in now was foreseeable, and I guess for me it wasn’t.” Moreover, developers across CO are scrambling for sidelines, mothballing projects, reneging on deals, and filing for bankruptcy in this ugly market.

Question: Given the sincerity of Jim’s assessment, the myriad of problems that JR has encountered, and a bleak economic outlook, why are we pouring millions into this black hole?

2. Profitability

Preface: Financial success at JR would have required superlative management and flawless execution from inception. Instead, we got Juniper Ridge Parters. The 1st tenant should have been a hi-tech research firm on a profitable basis. Instead we got Schwab at the cost of millions.

Question: In a best case situation, we’re looking at 1-2 years of mounting debt with no revenue. How can the council justify status quo and business as usual?

3. Central Oregon State U

Preface: 4 outlying Universities are floundering in a sea of mediocrity, broke, with combined enrollment of 12,000 – enough for 1 school. COCC recently announced plans for new medical & technical Centers.

Question: How could the State possibly add a 5th institution to a system that is mired in excess capacity

4. Employment at JR

Preface: Schwab cost millions, but created no new jobs. Pepsi is incompatible with a research park, & won’t create new jobs either. JR has not created any new jobs while amassing millions in debt.

Question: When will the council draw a line in the sand on this issue?

5. Consultants and more Consultants

Question: Beyond Garzini and the trio of education gurus, how many consultants are retained at JR, what are the terms of engagement, and how will the Council pay for them with no revenue stream?

6. Sources and Uses of Funds

Preface: The Budget Committee recently approved $406,000.00 it doesn’t have for police and fire stating that repayment could come from land sales at Juniper Ridge instead of retiring debt.

Question: How can this type of misappropriation be possible?

7. Master Plan / Strategic Plan

Question: Has the Council drafted a formal strategic/fiscal plan to direct tactical activity and investment at JR? Does it contain contingent strategies and exit strategies? What specific performance measurement tools does the Council utilize to monitor budgets, progress, and net expense at JR?

8. Roadblock at Cooley/97

Preface: ODOT has projected 10 years for a N. side traffic fix, a trip tax won’t work with no tenants, and an interim fix at Cooley will take 2-3 years at best if Santa shows up with money.

Question: How can the Council hope to compromise with ODOT on Limited development without letting Wal-Mart proceed 1st?

9. Mythical Hi-Techs

Question: How can the Council pursue tenants for 50 buildable acres that could be controlled by JRP if they exercise their option and taunt us again?

Conclusions:

Strategic and tactical lynchpins at Juniper Ridge comprise a giant myth designed to confuse taxpayers while massive debts accumulate to a point where the city can’t reverse course.

One senior City Official told me that no private developer would touch Juniper Ridge. Does the City believe that they are smarter and more capable than free market forces at work?We know better!

Scott R. Siewert, Bend


This seems to have been written before the Council voted to modify the JRP option at the last session. I'll put up an analysis over at juniper-ridge-info.blogspot.com. I want to fully digest Para 2.4, which along with 2.5 is the heart of the agreement

The new agreement is here: http://www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/docs/Agreement_JR_Partners.pdf

Bewert said...

Wierd how quiet it is.

Anyway, I think this is the meeting that will determine whether ODOT will allow development at JR to destroy the Cooley/97:


Wednesday, August 20, 2008 - 12:00pm to 3:30 pm
Redmond Fire Dept., 341 NW Dogwood Ave., Redmond, OR

Link: http://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/TS/gac.shtml

Some may want to attend.

Anonymous said...

Bend is getting more play in the national media.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/15/travel/escapes/15tiny.html


BRIAN ENDTER’S 30-day road trip this summer from his home in Bend, Ore., to his native lands of the Midwest unfolded like an American greatest-hits tour: national park campgrounds, stops in the Tetons, a visit to Old Faithful. His 6- and 4-year-old sons were ecstatic when a buffalo wandered through their Yellowstone campsite, and they relaxed in his dad’s cabin in northern Wisconsin. Good times. The funny thing was, the trip wouldn’t have happened but for one thing: a new trailer/tent hybrid called the SylvanSport Go.

Mr. Endter, 41, a special-education teacher, had done the math: flights for his family of four and renting a car would have cost around $3,000, which seemed prohibitive. He didn’t want a motor home. “I don’t want to sound like an elitist,” he said, “but I’ve never been interested in the hotel-room-on-wheels R.V. thing.” And Mr. Endter didn’t have a vehicle powerful enough to pull a full-sized pop-up camper. Then he read about the Go, released in stores in April, in an outdoors magazine.

By day, the Go is a gear-hauling utility trailer. At night, it opens into a hard-roofed tent that sleeps four. The willowy unit weighs only 800 pounds, meaning the Endters can tow it with their four-cylinder Honda CR-V. Their gas mileage dropped from 27 or 28 miles per gallon to 21 or 22 m.p.g., but that now seems like a small price to pay.

...and on and on ...


Out of 300 million people in the U.S., how did the Travel writer at the NY Times found this person, from Bend, Oregon, of all places?

Anonymous said...

[The roundabouts] back up like crazy at rush hour in busy places.

I bet if there were traffic lights or four-way stops instead of those roundabouts the traffic would back up even more.

tim said...

>>I bet if there were traffic lights or four-way stops instead of those roundabouts the traffic would back up even more.

I think the one at Reed Market is especially dysfunctional at rush hour. Cars coming from Old Mill and Reed going south to Brookswood put up an effective wall against cars coming from the Broken Top neighborhoods. You get traffic stopped coming from that direction longer than a light would last.

Anonymous said...

FUCK CARS, take away the cars there would be NO roundabout problems.

Anonymous said...

BP I wrote the following in reply to HBM for the SORE article on JR, could you please post the following. For a few weeks ago the SORE had UN-BANNED ME, well they have again banned ME, must have been something I said.

****

Great idea HBM, but the problem is that the problem of all time, the problem of why county sold the entire JR to Bend for ONE-DOLLAR in 1992.

That problem is that JR is all solid rock. In order to sell 10-20 acres to Les Schwab the city had to GIVE Knife-River $10M to excavate. The city got $3M which it promptly turned over entirely to KURATEK.

The theory is that JR sold for $7/acre to Les Schwab. Problematically is that it cost $18/acre to force that transaction, as per the Les Schwab Sales Agreement ( dec 2006 city hall was top-secret recently de-classified ). Per that agreement purchase by LS was contingent upon JR lot being 'shovel ready' to build, e.g. the city had agreed on paying ALL expense other than the building and paving the parking lot.

I repeat the city lost over $12 Million dollars in the transaction, all because they couldn't 'expense' the KURATEK black-mail any other way. Had they not paid KURATEK the $3M severance per the 2005 JRP agreement signed by city-hall, then KURATEK would have sued the city in civil-court, and all the skeletons in Bend CIty closet would have been exposed.

Now Given that it cost $800k/acre to excavate in order to develop, and the cost of the land is $200k you would have to be a complete idiot to purchase JR land, unless of course the city was paying all excavation cost.

The ONLY group that made out like a bandit on the Les Schwab Juniper Ridge was Knife River, who got almost $10 million dollars in excavation work all paid by the Bend taxpayer. The city can do this kind of 'infrastructure' all day and pass it off as a CMO ( Collateralized Municipal Obligation ).

The reason that Smith played Old-Mill is that its river bed, aka alluvial which means minimal excavation cost.

Anonymous said...

New Junkie who I'm sure is "Aaron Swisher" of the SORE.

He has posted a very nasty comment on BB3 ( bendbubble2.blogspot.com )

The essence of the subject News-Junky is that this is what the Nazi's did, they explicitly robbed Jews to pay for their war.

The boss-hoggs of BEND are using NAZI economics, e.g. "Socialize Expense, Privatize Income". The Boss-Hoggs via their control of city-hall is robbing the Bend taxpayer for their war.

If you bother to study the entire course of human history, this type of mercantile economics always results in holocaust.

Bend is not unique this crap is going on all over America.

Holocausts happen because good men do nothing.

A good Jew say's "NEVER AGAIN", and means it!

The boss-hoggs of Bend ain't Jewish. Holocausts will happen again, and they'll happen in BEND if we don't stop them before the HOGG's become so powerful they're unstoppable.

Anonymous said...

"I think the one at Reed Market is especially dysfunctional at rush hour. Cars coming from Old Mill and Reed going south to Brookswood put up an effective wall against cars coming from the Broken Top neighborhoods. You get traffic stopped coming from that direction longer than a light would last."

very true. i get stuck in a very long queue there heading east on reed mkt most afternoons. there is an unbroken parade of cars heading south from bond to brookswood and it is impossible for eastbound traffic on reed mkt to get into the roundabout.

Anonymous said...

"Out of 300 million people in the U.S., how did the Travel writer at the NY Times found this person, from Bend, Oregon, of all places?"

i guess by going to campgrounds, interviewing people and picking the story the reporter found most useful. such person had to be from somewhere.

Bewert said...

Re: BP I wrote the following in reply to HBM for the SORE article on JR, could you please post the following.

They're not posting my comments either.

Broke said...

Saturday, August 16, 2008
Pride..False Pride

In my meanderings through properties for sale in Bend I have found the most pride full owner of all time.
647 NW Drake...great address to have, if anyone cares.
Bought in March 2004 for $998,000, owner put in extensive upgrades and put it back on the market for $2.9 Million. Overboard price, AKA , Blue Sky. It did finally sell for $1.373 Million recently.

Over on the unmentionable blog, someone asks what percentage of the sold homes were being sold for less than the last purchase price. My, bigger question would be, what is the debt as opposed to sales price.
I can't answer that one one yet. But here is some interesting info.

February 2008. Sold SFR, Bend was 56. The properties (as DIAL shows) that sold for less than purchase totaled 7.

In July of 105 SFR'a in Bend 27 were sold for less that purchase price.

Just lettin you know.

Wait til the ALT-A's cream Bend in the last Q this year...


Dive...Dive...Dive...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

All I want is homer's text, no fucking pics, tubes, porn, or spybots. Just fucking text. No fucking gadgets, wizards, gomodules, or craigs-list. No fucking spy-logging, just text.

Man up then & use lynx.

Anonymous said...

Never have seen this many moving sales before, people are getting the hell out. I remember just a year ago people saying this is bend we are immune to a downturn.The only jobs are caregiving and toxic work at the airplane factories.

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