Sunday, April 27, 2008

What company will ensure the crash of Bend real estate?

Well, last week's "experiment" was a bust.

Everyone seemed to not want to hear from me the week before, and that's cool. And coincidentally, I noticed that while we have a tendency to just hammer away at some of the local RE schill's, and that some of that "bile" has seeped into hammering away at Bend in general. Seemed like we were starting to beat the shit out of each other.

And a long perusal of the comments gave me a little eye-opener: I know what I think are quite a few people in Bend, and I in fact know or have casually met many of the local luminaries that we all collectively hammer on periodically, and you know what?

They're not all that bad.

Timmy, Marge, Dunc, Brucey, rdc... and on and on. Most of the people making comments here are not the pathological locusts we whomp on. And neither are most are most of the people I know personally. Most of the people I know are work-related in some way, and many of them came from... California. And what's funny, is they are... dare I say... decent?

I know several ex Cali-bangers who came to Bend to escape. They feel like CA is an alien landscape, and they didn't really belong. Like transvestites: Born a woman in a man's body, these people are normal decent people, who were born in California. They knew something was wrong pretty quick.

So I wanted a week which was devoid of my take on things (Hallelujah), and just had the comments of you guys. Not many appreciated it, which I suppose is understandable; if I bought a copy the Wall Street Journal and all it had that day were letters to the editor, I guess I'd wanna roll it up & cram it up their corn chute.

Now the flip side is that people are selfish, they act in their own best interests, virtually at all times. And we are going to endure a crushing death blow, especially to Bend's local economy. And some of these people, decent, hardworking, and personable as they may be up close & personal, they may end up like the infamous "Raisin Face" (Heather Clark? Dang, she hot), and just leave a long-term bad taste in your mouth after really getting to know them.

But most people ain't that bad.

Most. Buster.

OK, I love the Buster as much as anyone, but the bitch got on my last nerve this week. Here's a snippet:

Yes, if your an intelligent investor, and your young, and you like to fix shit, there has NEVER ( in 25 years ) been a better time to buy in Bend.

Only fools can call a bottom, and you don't want to compete with man-twats on after the trough, thus right now when all the man-twats are panicking is a great time to buy.

I mean, what the fuck, did you join COBA this week? Bitch you been talking this thing DOWN 90% at times (remember $0.0006/ac?), and with medians down to a wimpy $275K or so, it's the best time to buy in 25 years? Are you fucking kidding me?

Needless to say, I strongly disagree with this crap. Things are going LOWER, something you've harped on HARDER than anyone here Buster. Way harder. I think it is still, overall, a crappy time to buy, and it will remain so for many years. When we have medians in the $100's... then maybe.

The RE market is a bell curve, some dumbshits asking WAYYYY too much, and a scant few offering a decent deal. In the bubble, the latter disappeared. And I mean, DISAPPEARED, extinct. I personally looked DAILY, all day, for a house from 2004 on that represented a decent deal around here, and found NOTHING. Hundreds, and hundreds, and hundreds of properties. Nada.

And it is still very close to those conditions. Is it lower than the absolute top? Hell yeah, but that don't mean dink. Ask marge:

Anyone that buys a rental in Bend before 2012 is a retard and will be feeding the pig forever. Buy it with cash and it's still going to go backwards for a long long time.

OK Buster, on to point 2:

Above click on "Bend Economy" BEM, last month, 30 days exactly BEM published "How to Fix Bend".

This is what we should be discussing, the upside, the down is over. It's Over, its going to take years for Bend to recover. In the meantime we need to stop government spending on PR&MARKETING. 90% of BEM's proposals are good. This is what we should be discussing.

Now here's where I am gonna catch shit, cuz we're about to go into Bizarro World, where I am contending what BEM & Buster are saying is mostly wrong. Hold on BEM... it gets better. Here is a summary of BEM's points about how to fix Bend:

  1. Raise taxes
  2. Increase funding for essential services & parks
  3. Suspend master planned projects
  4. Cut the destination resorts loose
  5. Lobby for a 4-year University
I disagree with 80% of these points. Buster, you'll have to tell me what 90% of 5 is... you agree with 4 1/2 of these things?

Anyway, I STRONGLY agree with #4. These chameleon subdiv's out in the scratch are simply end-runs around Oregon's land use laws, plain & simple.

And the recent piece in the Bulletin shows that NONE of the requirements are really being enforced. There was a purpose to WHY the destination resorts were given exemptions to traditional land use statutes, and now poor downtrodden pentamillionaires like the Pronghorn developers are claiming destitute poverty, and they don't want to build 99.999% vacancy units equal to 1/3rd of their housing stock. They are hoping for something closer to 0%.

This of course, makes them a regular subdiv. They must have their cake & eat it too. Dunc's summation:

Pronghorn gets it's fifth extension.

Disgraceful.

This the old-boy network in full-swing, and if you re-read the piece, you see they are actually in essence subverting OR land use laws by granting never-ending extensions. Unbelievable.

Now, for the other 4 points, I don't agree with. Let me put my objections in the form of an anecdote (you lucky devils):

Say some poor redneck schlub, LeRoy, wins the lottery. LeRoy wins $100MM. Now LeRoy ain't Einstein, and like 99.97% of all dudes, he wants to do 2 chicks at once, and basically live the good life after a hard life of fucking sheep.

So LeRoy lives it up, and I mean MC Hammer style. If he even thinks he wants it, he buys 20 of 'em. He gets jets, takes out his now lengthy list of friends to $1,000 plate dinners, $10,000 hookers, in short he goes berserk. He do it right.

OK, now it's 5 years hence, and LeRoy finds himself in a 1 bed apartment, $200 in the bank, shooting the cracker, no furniture, strung out, hitting rock bottom, wondering what the fuck happened.

LeRoy is Bend. We ain't got shit, we're fucked.

So back to BEM's well meaning list. Drawing a parallel to LeRoy, it's like he stood up, dusted he-self off, and proclaimed in Scarlett O'Hara fashion, "I'll never be poor again!". All I have to do is invest wisely (ie "Raise taxes"), spend wisely (ie "Increase funding for essential services and parks"), spend within my means (ie "Suspend master planned projects"), and keep a rainy day reserve (ie "Lobby for a 4-year University").

OK, these are all good ideas. Hell, they're Great Ideas.

But it's too late. LeRoy is down to his last $200. He's got nothing, and the days of making hay are over. He should have done all this to START. Can he take his $200, and turn it into $100MM again with his Good Ideas? Maybe. But it would have been a hell of a lot easier had he done it from the start.

My own philosophy for running a Country, State, County, City, or your life, is to Save when times are good, so you can spend when times are bad. If you do that, and the bad times are not really protracted, or they are evened out by protracted good times, then you should be OK.

If you do what LeRoy did, and spend every single penny on extravagant crap, well, you will go down hard.

Of course, this is exactly what Bend has done.

We can't raise taxes without cratering an already bad local financial situation. We should be LOWERING TAXES right now to stimulate... but we don't have ANY MONEY. We're $20MM in the hole. We are WORSE OFF than LeRoy.

And the same goes for each of the other items. New parks? With what? We're dead broke. Suspend Juniper Ridge? OK, this is one where I sort of also agree. But what do we do with it? Let it rot out there? Sell it? Is selling it even remotely possible? Give it to Les Schwab? My Lord, the City is actually still thinking they can move forward on this thing.

A 4 year University? Again, a great idea whose time has passed. We're busted.

During the boom, we spent on flagrantly idiotic crap. And to make things worse, we exacerbated the situation by lowering our SDC's BELOW COST. And just like underpricing insurance, you can actually watch the money pile up in impressive fashion by doing so. But you'll also ultimately go broke. This happens with amazing regularity in the insurance gig.

We under-priced city services, people rushed in to POCKET OUR MONEY by building homes in roughshod fashion, and now it's time to pay. $300MM to upgrade our sewers, and such. But what are we going to do? Where's the money? What's your answer Buster?

OK, and here's some good shit:

I have been demanding this for months, and BEM picked up the ball. Not one of you fuckers even read BEM's proposals. But what do you expect from a bunch of lazy retarded renters?? Like you think they actually care about Bend??

OK, Buster, fuck you.

You claim to be a landlord, and you are living off the largess of... who? Yeah, fucking renters. So fuck you & your elitist "owner" bullshit. Were it not for renters, you'd be cracker ass broke.

And that fucking lame false dichotomy about "Owners Care About Bend, Renters Don't"... Christ, how fucking moronic. I mean, think that if you want, but cripes... that loses you credibility.

No one, NO ONE, has been enumerating an exhaustive LITANY of prescriptive measures for CURING BEND than me. Maybe BEM. Fuck, as recently as 6 months ago, I held out hope that BEM's list was at least in some measure implementable. I don't anymore. LeRoy is sitting with a needle in his arm and $200 bucks in the bank. My money ain't on fucking LeRoy anymore, cuz I told the motherfucker time & time again to GET UP & DO SOMETHING and stop wasting his money, cuz this was a ONE SHOT DEAL & WHEN IT'S OVER, IT'S FUCKING OVER, AND IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN.

Well, LeRoy said Fuck You. You know what, Fuck You Too, LeRoy.

This town is broke, We spent when we should have saved. Even under-priced insurance might be sold by salvageable issuer, IF they invest very well. IF we had done all the things on BEM's list, there MIGHT have been some way to save this place.

Juniper Ridge could have been a fantastic industrial center. But what is it? It's 1,500ac of scrub, whose de facto owner & sole tenant is Les Schwab. Could have been a billion. We actually LOST MONEY on this thing.

4 Year University? Could have been a reputation maker. Could have made Bend a REAL destination, not a Bachelor motel dive. No. We did not pursue it AT ALL, and we briefly had the money.

Parks? Fuck that never had a chance, cuz that's about making things good for those that live here, and the City fathers have clearly shown they have NO REGARD for indigenous folks who they've already landed.

So yes, in this strange Bizzaro World, I actually stand alone on this triad against BEM & Buster.

And Buster, a lot of people care about Bend, whether renters or owners, Westside or Eastside, MBA or not, or what the fuck ever sort of categorization you want to put on them. OK Bitch, I bought a fucking house right when I got here, and sold when it just got too much for me to hold. I have been renting ever since, and I don't regret it at all.

I missed the bubble, and by my own investment predilections, I ALWAYS WILL. I may own at +2 STD... but never at 3+. EVER. So I ain't buying, and I won't until IT PENCIL'S against renting. And you stupid fuck, I do have an MBA, which neither confers intellectual greatness on me or not. I never ask people what their educational pedigree is, cuz I don't give a shit.

The smartest & most interesting people I know graduated from some ho-hum college or not at all. Probably like you, Buster.

And were I to ever meet you, I'd probably like you, cuz I like crotchety fuckers who made it despite the odds. OK, but just cuz you may be a slightly bigger than average polywog in a pathetically small pond, don't make you the shit. You're just one of the masses trying to scratch out a living, like the rest of us.

And if throwing the rest of Bend under the bus due to some arbitrary division you've made up in your head, and just cuz your old gristle-ly ass has carved out some small scale pile, well, then you're a pathetic fuck. You sound like you're angry & waiting to die.

OK, Buster? As Brucey would say: Flame on, motherfucker. Really. Flame on.

Cuz the larger issue, is that you & me be birds of a feather, bitch. We've both been banished to the netherworld of Bend RE blogging, cuz we outside the mold. And I am just letting you have it once as just a taste of the smackdown you've given me at least 100X, brother. So now it's your turn for another 100 hits on me... and hopefully you appreciate the knowledge that you CAN throw my fat ass under the bus, and I won't delete it. I won't delete it, but you better expect the occasional blowback on this shit.

And, let me tell you what the real root problem is here: It's not that we don't have good ideas, and that we couldn't implement at least some of them. It's that the governing structure in this town is so thoroughly inbred, corrupt, and Boss Hogg-ridden, that THEY are the real impediments to change.

Does anyone think our current, local government leaders are even capable of doing anything remotely right? They haven't so far. We'll NEVER get anywhere with the current City Council. Every single one is bought & paid for by someone, most by Bend RE.

So I'm all for implementing BEM's plan, or at least starting on one of them, but the current local government has got to go. Until they are gone, I don't believe Bend has a chance.

And moving on...

Man, I thought the fucking weirdest, most alarming news of the week was that rice rationing story!

Sam's Club, the membership warehouse division of Wal-Mart Stores Inc., is limiting how much rice customers can buy because of what it calls "recent supply and demand trends," the company said Wednesday.

The broader chain of Wal-Mart stores has no plans to limit food purchases, however.

Sam's Club said it will limit customers to four bags at a time of Jasmine, Basmati and long grain white rice. Rice prices have been hitting record highs recently on worries about tight supplies as part of broader global inflation in food costs.


Even KTVZ ran a video piece on this:

Rice shortage fears prompt some restrictions (4/24)

I saw that piece Wednesday, and figured it was going to stay a little marginal piece that I'd have all to myself. Hell no, it was The Leading Piece on Thursday's nightly news!

Food rationing? In the U.S.A? What the fuck is going on? And the public calls to not stockpile & hoard rice was something out of Rwanda or some shit.

I mean, I knew there would be some strange crap as the result of this housing bust, but food rationing? Shit, even I didn't see that one coming. But I probably should have; the last bout of monster stagflation was accompanied by rationing.

Damn, this is starting to get shades of Soviet Russia before they blew up. Bare store shelves, a government out of control, what's next?

Anyway, this is Yet Another Unexpected Consequence of the Unraveling Of The Biggest Bubble Of All Time. Try to stay ahead, try to capitalize, and not be run over by these things.

OK, now for the headliner. Google will be the death of Bend RE in the long run.

And I should warn you this is more of a personal intellectual exercise, than anything.

I think it's pretty well known that pre-bust, California had some of the most perennially overpriced real estate on the Planet, and it still does. I meekly put forth many moons ago that Cali might actually lead a charge lower in RE prices that would take it to ::gasp:: parity with the rest of the country. Yes, medians in CA within eyeshot of the rest of the country.

I know, this one is still pretty hard to imagine.

Then you'll love it when I say they might go even lower than that.

And what got me thinking this was the recommendation to read Taleb's Fooled by Randomness, as recommended by Timmy. Tim is smart, so I am usually interested in what's on his reading list.

And Taleb's book is actually pretty good, being a rather flowery, and sometimes overly intellectual read about how humans many times underestimate the effects of statistical distributions, how some distributions are different from others, how chance can make life appear contradictory in the extreme, even to the extent of ensuring the survival of the least fit in a species, and so on.

There's more to it than that, but much of it was material I was vaguely aware of, but Taleb is very good at distilling some of the strange & inexplicable aspects of chance, and is especially good at pointing out long term winners are many times in immediate losing positions, and vice versa, and the reality of the now should be very suspect. Holding period returns, whether in life or love or roulette, are strangely bound to the holding period you happen to be in.

And so we come to California.

California may be one of those places that is playing a long-term losing game with extreme distributions in returns, that happens to be having an inordinately lucky holding period return, and that period has just ended.

This may be a fairly tired illustration, but it is quite possible to win huge amounts in a losing game. If you enter a game with a dollar, and a coin is flipped & each time you call it right, your money is doubled, and when you call it wrong, your entire stake is wiped out... you will ALWAYS ULTIMATELY LOSE if you play enough times. Always.

But you can also have a hell of a run. And as Taleb points out, someone somewhere will always have a hell of a run, if the initial population is large enough. And if the lottery teaches us anything, the more skewed & extreme the payoff, the more people will play. And the more people that play, the more fantastic will be the winnings of the outlying winners.

If you can win 100,000,000 times your initial investment, but the chances of you winning are incredibly small, many people will play. It seems they are unable to comprehend that betting $1 in a game having a 1 in 200mm chance of winning $100mm is a Bad Bet.

Change the odds to something comprehendable, like roll a dice & hit 6 and I give you $3, otherwise you give me $1... most will quickly see the poor payoff matrix of such a game. Extreme, almost ludicrous payoffs & chances to win are required to make paupers of the players.

This is what California is.

In all it's incarnations, California is a place of almost unbelievable extremes. The distributions of "returns" is huge.

People go there to hit it big in Hollywood, with almost mind-numbingly tiny chances of doing so. The local restaurants are littered with starry-eyed immigrants who work for next to nothing, just to be close to the action. And what's better, they're intelligent WHITE PEOPLE who will do grubby crap work for a pittance. And like any sharecropper, these amenity business owners are happy as hell to have this vast field of moronic dreamers to choose from & exploit.

Do we see this? No. America does not broadcast losers. We broadcast winners only, and the cruel irony is that a vast swath of losers is the main byproduct of broadcasting winners stories.

But surely, Silicon Valley is different, right?

Hmmm. I don't think so. I would put to you that the current Bay-area "business model" is a horrendous loser, that happens to have had a hell of a holding period runup. So what is this business model?

Well, in short, it is a lottery.

But first, back up, way up... like to Des Moines.

What kind of businesses do you picture being started in Des Moines? Car repair? Maybe a deli? Comic book shop, right?

What do you think of when you think of the Bay? Do you think of it like Des Moines? I don't. I think of the Paris Hilton and Brad-Jolena super powers of the technological World.

Google. I think mainly of Google.

Why? Why do I think of Google, and not Amiga, Go.com, About.com, AskJeeves.com, or even Steve Jobs' neXt, or even O/S 2? Because the U.S.A does NOT broadcast losers, it broadcast winners, and Google is a winner. And what happens to those who start up a winner like Google? Well Sergey Brin & Larry Page get their own Boeing 767's, and a 11 digit net worth, and become kings of the World. We remember Winners & Losers are abandoned to anonymity.

So what is the process by which the Google's of the World are created? Venture Capital.

And what is Venture Capital about? VC's plays a game with companies that is much like the lottery, where the odds of winning are fairly small, but the payoff's are potentially enormous. Again, a situation where the odds & payoffs have become so extreme that there exists the distinct chance of dire investment consequences. And remember that VC is predicated on credit, lots of it, and that game is over.

The situation faced by VC's is this: We have $5 billion, and we can make 100 investments of $50MM each. And there exists a Google-like payoff out there of $25 billion. Do we do it?

Many answer "Yes", without asking the most important question: How many companies are out there to invest in? What are our overall chances of winning? All they see is a HUGE payoff, and they do realize their chances of winning are small, but they don't realize just how small the chances are.

And you might say, "No person would rationally buy a money losing investment, especially those with huge amounts to lose". It happens EVERYDAY. Don't believe me, go look at the lottery payoff. They tell you straight up that they are going to take HALF YOUR MONEY, but many GLADLY buy such claims on future... poverty?

I'll admit it. I have bought lottery tickets. And it is the same reason: My utility for a single dollar is low, but my utility for $100MM is so high, that I am willing to overlook the ridiculously small odds of my winning, and buy one anyway.

VC's can & will buy money losing investments. And what will make them willing to play an even WORSE game? Simple, just skew the odds & payoffs to even greater heights. aka Google.

Google has probably single-handedly kept alive the vast grindings of the VC trade. It's payoff was so spectacular that there again exists, post-NASDAQ bust, enough faith in the monstrous upside of the VC lottery to keep money flowing to losing enterprises for years.

I think the jig is up in Silicon Valley. It certainly did have some true innovative successes in the past. But the VC lottery of today is a long term loser. VC is to Silicon Valley as RE is to Bend. It may not be the entire economy, but it's damn big. And Google, the paradoxical poster child of perennial VC losses, will keep alive the dream for so much longer that, like Bend, the economic demise of the Bay region will be just that much worse & protracted. Mike Hollern & Brooks Resources is our Google. A single beacon of such huge gains that it inspires such a vast army imitators, that the entire game is fucked.

So just exactly how will the success of Google depress the Bend housing market in the long-term?

Google inspires the long-term playing of a losing game, and Bend has long been the beneficiary of the California miracle. The miracle is over. The chain of events, while seemingly convoluted, should be clear:

  • California plays a coin-fliping game of extreme risk/reward.
  • They have a good run, as statistics dictates... someone was going to have a good run.
  • Like LeRoy, they spend like hillbillies in a snowmobile store (Bend).
  • They lose it all.
  • Hillbilly snowmobile shop closes

The California economic miracle looks iron-clad, durable, and well-founded in fact & reality. It's something like the 6th largest economy in the World, for Gods sake!

Such is the nature of all losers before their streak abruptly ends.

Google & it's enormous success, ironically, will probably have the effect of prolonging the downturn in CA and, by extension, Bend than just about any organization anywhere.

Except for maybe, Bend City Council.

276 comments:

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Anonymous said...

Bulletin (c) 2008 Bend Mother Eats her Young.

son: "Mom are we losers?"

mom: "Where the fuck did you hear that?"

son: "School, the kids say that a middle age guy thats rent a home is a loser, and that make dad a loser"

mom: "No son, we're winners, homer tells us so"

son: "What you mean mom?"

mom: "Remember the Bend prayer, I tell you every night", "The baby jeebus loves us so, because homer tells us so"

son: "Mom, the kids at the school say that homer is a false prophet, that he is leading his lemmings off the financial cliff"

mom: "Oh, no Homer has an MBA."

son: "The kids say that buster says that they should buy a home when they're young, so they can have it paid off by the time their forty."

mom: "That buster is full of shit, Homer tells so.", "Its ok to be a renter until your say 80, then you live in a poorhouse, and die"

son: "But mom, what happens to us, if you go to live at the poorhouse?"

mom: "Homer hasn't told us yet, but I'm sure he has a plan for all of us"

son: "Buster says that Homer is a POVERTY-PIMP, that people who buy into his proselytizing will become perpetual losers, and there children such, and the poverty cycle will never end"

mom: "Son, money isn't everything, we're all a family here, this is Bend we're exceptional. I'm sure all of Homers flock we'll be sharing the little food we have when times get really tough"

son: "So self reliance is completely thrown out the window? We're basically in the lines at the gallows waiting for homer to tell us what to do?"

mom: "Homer tells us that the baby-jeebus works in strange ways"

son: "I'm getting the hell out of Bend, and I'm going to buy a house, and pay it off on a 15yr fixed, and I'm not going to raise my children to be part of an endless poverty cycle"

mom: "Son your speaking blasphemy, do you realize that Homer could have us excommunicated from his flock for such talk"

son: "Fuck Homer, he's a loser"

[ All heard by Bart ]

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Dude I agree, except for this:

6.) Don't wait for the bottom, because then NO MONEY will be available.

That shit is true RIGHT NOW.

The money is GONE now. And I'd rather buy at rock bottom for cash than on the way down. That's what we call in the computer biz

PREMATURE INTERPOLATION

and that shit is costly. Wait. Buy at rock bottom. As Timmy said, buying at a rock bottom price can be the diff between OK, and FAN-FUCKIN-TASTIC returns.

As for me... I'm gonna wait.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

"Buster says that Homer is a POVERTY-PIMP, that people who buy into his proselytizing will become perpetual losers, and there children such, and the poverty cycle will never end"

This is the sort of shit that'll get copy/pasted 12 months from now to the chagrin of it's poster.

Buster, you selling your inventory?

Anonymous said...

It is most certainly NOT FINE. I know several people who own multiple homes, who are finally seeing that they cannot sell them OR rent them, and they are desperate to do either. And they are deeply regretting that they did not cut price last Summer when the getting was still relatively good.


*

Who is that guy on the corner of Walmart with the sign, "The End is Near". Why that be Homer.

Why does NOBODY NOT follow him off the cliff??

1.) They own their own home free & clear.

2.) They have stable income.

3.) They have savings of 2-4 years income equivalent.

4.) They have controlled their spending.

There are many 1-4 people above in Bend. Then there are the MAN-TWATS, people like Homer, Bruce, Timmy, endless twat that came to Bend, with nothing but the shit on their back, in order to 'get rich quick'. There world is imploding and they want everyone else to get excited.

The rest of us built our houses of stone. But homer et-al live in card-board crap-shack rentals, and in their world, that world is coming to an end.

Homer waves the sign of despair, but gets no respect. Why? Because Had him an his ilk not moved to Bend, had they stayed put and done 1-4 above, they would be 'SET'. Instead their live is on a string, and they move like rats from town to town looking for an easy feed.

Life is NOT easy Homer, but a rolling stone gathers NO moss, and your a perfect example.

Folks that are prepared will feel virtually NO pain during this correction.

Only people un-prepared, or renters who think that poverty is preferable will feel pain.

I still love you Home-Boy, I'm just trying to set you straight, your like all the other RE-blogger nationally, they're all renters, and the sky is always falling, but the problem is its over, and now we got to start putting humpty-dumpty back together again.

Only un-employed renters are afraid homer, people who own their own homes, and have CASH, are NOT afraid.

The first step to owning your own home HOMER is to BUY a home, and NOT to fucking move all the time, that is loser shit, and that make you a loser.

Your a poverty pimp, and your way of life is NOT pretty. It's people like you, that moved to Bend that fucked this place.

Anonymous said...

Buster, you selling your inventory?

*

Homer, why don't you listen for once?

I have been 100% consistent here.

I haven't sold shit in 30+ years, I have bought two in the last two years.

I never sell. Rule #1.

It's coming back, like Hollern says perhaps 20 years, but its coming back.

The inherent problem here Homer, is that you don't listen, and you have NO Bend history.

Look at whats happening now, YOU, TIM, Bruce-Pussy, just print national 'sky is falling' storys to reaffirm your position, a position that renting is superior.

The three of you should leave Bend, its obvious you don't want to BUY a home, and live here.

Since you asked a bruce-pussy question "Are you selling",

I'll give you the answer.

Buffett says when others are selling I buy, and when others are buying I sell.

Homer others are NOW selling if they can, that make it a BUYER's market for people with money and brains.

Homer you may have a MBA, but your a perfect example of an educated idiot. Not to pick on you, its not my goal. I don't even think there is a goal anymore now that this blog has gone man-twat 24/7, and renters rule. Hell how can we have a housing debate when nobody even owns a house??

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Folks, there'll come a time soon, about 3 years from now, when STD's and other dogshit RE will be lying fallow and unwanted in the high desert. It'll be going to seed just like Buster said.

But, the full horror of it's FULL ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS will also be evident. City of Bend will have gone bust, 40-50% vacancy downtown, businesses closing, huge unemployment.

At that point you'll be able to get owner financing for just about everything. Why? People will realize that they cannot sell, and that the piddle of cash from renters is just a nightmare... while the income from a *prospective* buyer is an easy walk-away investment where they might never hear from THE HOUSE again.

And owner financing will be ALL THERE IS. You will have the luxury of not just LOWBALLING THE SELLER INTO A FUCKING COMA, but you can ride 'em hard on the financing as well.

I think Buffett said that buying stocks in the depth's of the 70's bear markets was like being in a haram. Same goes for Bend, circa 2012. Sub $200K medians, Awbrey shacks in foreclosure, STD's under $50/sf, 100% owner financing for business sales It'll be glorious. If you're here & you have cash, it'll be guaranteed millions... but only if you buy at DEAD BOTTOM.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

that make it a BUYER's market for people with money and brains.

Dude, you need to use your COBA T-shirt to wipe the Kool-Aid from your mouth.

:-)

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Right here is why I'm confused:

1.) 98% of the time its more prudent to be an owner than renter, I'm saying this as a land-lord.

2.) 4X, homes should cost no more than 4X income, that be 160-240k in Bend.


OK, I AGREE WITH BOTH THESE THINGS.

In Bend, I would say that 95% of the time it's better to be a renter than owner, but just the same, WE ARE IN ONE OF THOSE TIMES.

I ALSO think homes are going to sub $200's. We're near $275K now... so why are you saying "BUY NOW?" THAT doesn't make sense.

Dude I agree with "People with money & brains...", but that time is NOT YET. Why not WAIT TILL WHAT YOU ARE SAYING actually HAPPENS?

Why buy at $275K, when sub $200K is a dead lock? These aren't my words, their YOURS. Why do you wanna buy into the teeth of a vicious decline?

We're in that 5 years out of 100 where owning a house is DUMB. Started in 2007. Probably end in 2012, and it'll be a hell of a 95 year run up after that. But I ain't buying till I know it's a money maker.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Here is a really prescient piece from OVER A YEAR AGO:

Can 4% of Homeowners Sink the Entire Market?

(February 21, 2007)

If 4% of all American homeowners fall into foreclosure, could that "small number" cause a collapse in the entire housing market? The Pareto principle says: yes.

Despite months of suspiciously negative data--housing sales and starts sagging, cancellations of sales and foreclosures rising--housing apologists have maintained that the problems with subprime borrowers and lenders can be "contained." In other words, only those "few" who lose their homes will suffer any economic impact; Home Depot and Lowes sales will remain robust, construction activity will continue unchanged, employment in construction, home furnishings, remodeling, lending and real estate will continue to hold up with minimal declines, etc.

That's the happy story. Let's get some facts before we buy into it. Here is a recent story in the Wall Street Journal: Sharp Drop in Housing Starts Adds To Fear of Wider Economic Impact (2/17/07) (subscription required)

So far, defaults and late payments have remained very low on prime mortgages, which are made to lower-risk borrowers and account for the bulk of home loans. But late payments have risen swiftly over the past year on subprime mortgages -- those made to risky borrowers with spotty credit histories -- and on "Alt-A" mortgages, a category between prime and subprime which includes many loans for which borrowers haven't documented their income. According to trade publication Inside Mortgage Finance, 13% of mortgages outstanding are subprime.

In November, payments were at least 60 days overdue on 12.9% of subprime loans packaged into mortgage securities, up from 8.1% a year earlier, according to First American LoanPerformance, a research firm in San Francisco. For Alt-A loans, the delinquency rate jumped to 2.1% in November from 1.1% a year earlier.

But if we dig a little deeper, we find that seems to understate the true scope of delinquencies and foreclosures. Here is the Financial Services Fact Book:

Adjustable rate mortgages, loans in which the interest rate is adjusted periodically according to a pre-selected index, accounted for 31 percent of mortgage originations in 2005, up from 12 percent in 2001.

The factbook also lists some very interesting charts of delinquencies: 12.9% of all FHA loans are delinquent. Are these listed as subprime? No. These are "conventional mortgages."

The Factbook also states that 24.7 million homes are owned "free and clear," with no mortgage, and about 50 million have mortgages of one kind or another. About 10 million homeowners have equity lines of credit as well as a mortgage--in effect, second mortgages. Though rarely mentioned in all the hoopla about subprime ARM (adjustable rate) mortgages, it is important to note that equity lines of credit are adjustable-rate loans; they are not 30-year, fixed-rate "conventional" mortgages.

The upshot: 10 million homeowners who statistically have "safe" conventional mortgages are at risk of their home equity line loans re-setting to higher rates. There's about $9 trillion in home mortgages on the books, and $500 billion is due to re-set higher. More Americans are losing their homes:

Nothaft estimates that $500 billion in variable rate mortgages will reset, or rise, sometime this year, leaving many with a payment they can no longer afford. “Those would be the candidates for … delinquent status,” he said.

Foreclosures had been at historic lows in the past three years as rapidly appreciating home prices gave financially strapped owners the option to refinance, sell their house at a profit or take out a cheap home equity line of credit. But with the pace of appreciation slowing in many markets and interest rates rising, for many, these avenues have been cut off.

“You’re really out of options,” said Susan Wachter, professor of real estate at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Number of vacant homes for sale surges 34%

The number of vacant homes waiting to be sold surged 34% to 2.1 million at the end of 2006 compared with the end of 2005, by far the fastest increase ever recorded, the Census Bureau reported Monday.

"We have more than a million housing units of excess supply," said James O'Sullivan, an economist for UBS. "If you are looking for evidence that the worst is over for housing, you're not going to find it in this report. This argues that housing starts need to go down more."

According to the Financial Times, The inventory of new and existing homes waiting for buyers is now approaching 4m.

The total value of US residential property is now around $19 trillion, according to the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard University. The US Census Bureau calculates that there are around 123.9m housing units in the US. (ED: this includes condos and rental apartments)

Total household debt is $11 trillion: $9 trillion in mortgages and $2 trillion in revolving credit (credit cards, etc.) That means net equity for all 75 million American homeowners is $8 trillion--including the 25 million households who own their homes free and clear. What if we subtract those folks? Since 1/3 of all homes are owned free and clear, let's assume about a 1/3 of the $19 trillion is represented by these mortgage-free homes.

That's $6.5 trillion, which means all 50 million mortgage holders are left with a grand total of $1.5 trillion in net equity. If housing values decline 15%, that's a $2.85 trillion haircut off net equity. If we set 2/3 of that against mortgaged real estate, (the other 1/3 being a decline in the value of free and clear homes), then the decline collectively suffered by all mortgage holders is $1.9 trillion--enough to put them in a negative equity hole.

This is a staggering conclusion, for it suggests just how a "mere" 4% delinquency/foreclosure rate could trigger a "modest" 15% decline in housing values, which would put the nation's mortgage holders (if taken in aggregate) under water: the nation's household debt would exceed the value of the mortgaged residential real estate.

So let's put this together. With the Pareto Principle in hand, we can foresee the distinct possibility that when a mere 4% of outstanding mortgages enter delinquency / foreclosure, then a "tipping point" will be reached, triggering effects which far outsize the proximate causes.

Please examine the chart above carefully. Over 69% of the population are homeowners, and another 26% are in poverty. According to the FDIC, the recent surge in ownership from 64% to 69.5% has created a pool of "at-risk" borrowers who couldn't have purchased a house with a conventional mortgage. Of the remaining 4% who are not homeowners or those living below the poverty line, the recent stalling home ownership rates at about 69.1-69.7% suggests these households are just above the poverty level and unable to buy a house, not yuppies renting penthouse suites who are now ready to buy a McMansion.

There are 50 million mortgages. If 4% is the magic number, that's 2 million mortgages. In other words, when 2 million mortgages enter delinquency / default, then according to the Pareto principle, that will affect the 64% "trivial many," i.e. those holding "safe" conventional mortgages.

According to the FDIC, about 4 million recent buyers are at risk of defaulting. Recent news items suggest 1 million subprime mortgages are already in that category. There are at least 6.7 million subprime loans outstanding, and if 13% are in foreclosure, that's nearly 900,000. We can be confident that a much larger number are delinquent, and that lenders are scrambling to keep them out of foreclosure.

Also recall that 13% of FHA loans--"conventional fixed-rate mortgages"--are already in delinquency. (see Factbook link above for the chart) So while the foreclosure rate on those mortgages is still low--2% or so--the pool of potential foreclosures is large, and increasing.

How close are we to the "tipping point" where a "small" 4% (2 million defaulted mortgages) will cause 64% of the effects, i.e. declines in housing prices? If you total up delinquencies, it would seem we are already well over the 2 million mark. As for 2 million foreclosures--the clock is ticking.

Here's a question that deserves to be asked: if everyone who can afford a house--even those who stretched their credit to the breaking point--has already bought a house, then who's left to buy the 4 million empty dwellings? Please don't say someone who's selling their existing house--they're adding one unit of inventory even as they take one off.

If you add up the facts presented above, it is difficult not to reach disturbing conclusions: there is no way buyers will emerge to snap up 4 million empty homes; the number of mortgages in delinquency is large, and rising, meaning the number of foreclosures in the future pipeline must also rise; once 2 million mortgages/homes are in foreclosure, a "tipping point" may well be reached which will lead to significant declines in all housing values far in excess of the supposedly "contained" "small" number of delinquent / foreclosed loans.

Here's another way to consider the possible Pareto effects: if 20% of the housing stock in the "hot markets" of Florida and the West and East coasts declines in value, then will that cause a decline in 80% of the U.S. home market?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I've been saying this forever: This thing AIN'T LINEAR.

5% in trouble doesn't mean 5% losses, or something. It's a vicious cycle that feeds on itself. 5% down means 2% more marginal players (Bear Stearns) go down, which leads to 3% more, ad nauseum.

The only ones left standing will be ALL-CASH DEEP EQUITY types (aka Buster), everyone else will be beached whales, suffocating to death.

Don't buy. You'll die.

Anonymous said...

Homer,

I like to put my own words down, not yours.

1.) "It's a good time to BUY",

Not what I have said, what I have said is its a good time to low-ball. Last spring on BB I wrote a whole story on how-to-low-ball, and its still there.

2.) COBA 'best in 20', is NOT busters 'best in 20'.

I never said today is best in 20, it can't be as we would have to have minimum prices in the last 20, which would be $60k, and this isn't going to happen. I don't see the median going below $120k. ( 4X of min income see wiki for min-income in Bend which is $30k/yr )

COBA is selling STD's, that is ALL they have, BUSTER only buys inner city close to drake nice little 1,000 sq-ft or so homes that rent easily to yuppies.

Buster acknowledges that 98% of most people will always be losers, but Buster hopes that the 2% start when they're young.

***

I'm NOT picking ON you homer, I still love you. What I'm picking on is IDEAS, TODAY is the time NOT to be a renter, today is a good time to BUY a home on a LOW-BALL. TODAY is the TIME Homer, and for over a year you MAN-TWAT renters have been saying that you would BUY once the time came. I'm just calling all you perpetual loser-renter poverty-pimps to your rhetoric. Me thinks that most of you don't have 800 fica, don't have 20% down, and don't have a job to qualify the 4X income for the home purchsae.

I pick on duncan for NOT buying his own building.

I'm a landlord, I pick on my own renters for NOT buying, after five years I always tell them its time to buy. I don't rent to people who couldn't buy in the first place. ( credit check, job, ... ) The past 2-4 years in Oregon hasn't been a good time to BUY, but now it is, this is a simple fact Homer.

Sure Bend will NOT hit bottom for another 18 months or more, but so what, it will come back fast, and for the person in a long haul they'll NOT lose.

1.) Don't BUY a STD, e.g. BUY close to town, very close, and don't buy a home built after 2002 they're all crap.
2.) Low-Ball, offer less than $200k, make sure you don't pay over 4X the median income of Bend, which today is about $50k/yr average for household.

We're going to have inflation Homer, me & you agree on that, at 6% inflation, homes will double in price in 12 years.

LavaBear said...

Ok Buster I'll add in my .02 cents worth. I've been a homeowner. I've been a landlord. I've owned several rental properties. For a while I figured I'd keep them forever. Then this bubble thing happened. I essentially watched as the price of my properties and home went parabolic. I figured this was a once in a lifetime event. I've always invested with the thought that you never "make" anything until you sell. Thus I took the huge gains and sold and became a man twat. I'm ok with that really. With the gains that I took off the table I'm pretty well set. Will I buy again...of course. I just don't think now is the time.

As for Homer, Bruce, Timmy..et al. If you were in their shoes would you buy right now in Bend? Does the future employment prospects look so great that you'd be willing to bank on it? If their jobs dried up tomorrow they have the flexibility to move on. And in this economy and this generation that is a positive for them. Where the fuck would they go to get a promotion? Probably the home office which means moving.

I'm invested in Bend, my family is from Bend it's different for me. But for any professional person why the fuck would you tie the anchor around your neck at this moment? It's fine when houses were going up. You could sell in a week and be on with it. If they buy today they be stuck.

Anonymous said...

The only ones left standing will be ALL-CASH DEEP EQUITY types (aka Buster), everyone else will be beached whales, suffocating to death.

*

You must live in a bubble homer, because ALL my neighbors are sitting in homes free & clear, and all have savings,...

The problem is ALL you fucking newbies to Bend, if you came to Bend in the last five years YOUR fucked whether your a renter or NOT.

That said, there are tons, probably 1/2 of Bend that isn't worrying, because they own their home, and they have savings.

You can't get to this position without BUYING.

Being a RENTER will leave you in the position of desperation forever.

What I here you saying HOMER is that "I'M FUCKED, and therefore everyone else is fucked"

Not true Homer, a lot of people in Bend ARE NOT fucked.

Only the amenity parasites that bought into the HOLLERN DVA/COBA PR&MARKETING that brought YOU, TIM, Bruce-Pussy here, and all the other parasites, YOUR all the people who are FUCKED. People who have been in Bend for more than ten years that own their own HOME, and have some savings are NOT FUCKED.

I suggest we rename this blog-site to 'fucked-renters-in-bend.blogspot.com'

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Dunc says The Book Barn is closing.

"35 years in existence..."

Wow, clear back to 1973. Yet Another Long Time Bend Business Destroyed By the Bubble.

Killed by the 70's gas panic? nope
Reaganomics? nope
80's RE bust? nope
Gulf War recession? nope
9/11? nope

RE Bubble? There it is....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

why the fuck would you tie the anchor around your neck at this moment? It's fine when houses were going up. You could sell in a week and be on with it. If they buy today they be stuck.

Exactly. I do not want to swap places & become AN OWNER today. Many of the OWNERS of Bend RE that I know are desperate to sell, cuz it's a spiral down.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

What I here you saying HOMER is that "I'M FUCKED, and therefore everyone else is fucked"

Not true Homer, a lot of people in Bend ARE NOT fucked.


Dude... what about this line do you not understand?

The only ones left standing will be ALL-CASH DEEP EQUITY types (aka Buster)

Anonymous said...

The entire 'market' is NOT sinking.

Look at PDX, complete fucking paralysis, but prices are holding.

It's because of 'demand', folks want to live in a nice place, that has low crime, and is clean, with water.

Then OUR Bend, Bend was over-sold by con-artists like Hollern, Smith, Hap-Taylor, ... COBA/COAR,EDCO boss-hogg family.

They attracted people like Homer, Tim, Bruce-Pussy to come to Bend.

Bend is NON-SUSTAINABLE. Because its good money feeding a desert sand hole. You can pour all the money you wish into the Bend Hole, and it still will never hold water.

Hollern, Smith, Taylor, ... Sebastian, ... Friedman, Johnson, ... Borgman, will ALL lose their ass over this fiasco.

Bend is stabilizing amazingly well, YOUR argument Homer is your surprised that utter insanity has NOT taken over, I can tell you HOMER that 1983 was FAR worse. Back then Oregon was FUCKED, today things are doing well, there is a lot of money floating around.

It's an election year.

I think we'll have 20% interest in a few years, we'll have Volcker back who will fix the dollar. Right now they'll keep interest rates low to elect McCain.

People in Bend in own their home, and have cash will be FINE. Those who don't will be fucked.

People who moved to Bend post 2000 were idiots, in TIME this will be common knowledge. Gradually the idiots will all leave.

HOMER is/was an idiot to move to Bend, but he already knows that.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I'm NOT picking ON you homer, I still love you.

I still love you too baby. And not that prison shit. But the love of 2 lesbo's where one look like a man, but got the turkey basters mixed up & now she pregger, with nasty fucking hair under the arms.

That fat nasty lesbo probably responsible for at least 5% of Bends losses....

Anonymous said...

People who moved to Bend post 2000 were idiots, in TIME this will be common knowledge. Gradually the idiots will all leave.

*

Homer, there are tons of people in BEND who are 'SET'

You don't have to be rich.

1.) Own you own home.
2.) Have cash savings.
3.) Own a small house.
4.) Live close to town ( commuting will kill you )
5.) Have a good job/profession.

Many people Homer have 1-5 above, and are 'set', you don't need to be rich to be 1-5.

The problem is that 90% of the post 2000 newbies that came to Bend, were NEVER 1-5 in the first place, because as the sage said "A rolling stone gathers NO moss".

Amenity parasites and rats, will always go to the next party, and when the food runs out, they'll be the first to bitch ( endless posting about the demise of Bend ), but the fact is YOU HAVE ONLY YOUR SELF to blame for your poverty.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

YOU HAVE ONLY YOUR SELF to blame for your poverty.

I agree.

Luckily I have taken my own medicine & am RENTING AND INVESTING THE DIFFERENCE, so I'm OK.

tim said...

>>You can see that gov't stats are bullshit from our current situation.

Well, that's true. But forget core and all that, because it doesn't factor into my point.

Wages did get locked into the cycle of inflation in the 70s. My point is that if you have a FIXED cost, like a mortgage, and rising everything-else (including wages), the mortgage effectively is going down.

But remember how bad it was for the elderly on FIXED INCOME?

Anonymous said...

But for any professional person why the fuck would you tie the anchor around your neck at this moment? - lava

*

This is a silly question. Today is a good day to low-ball.

Typically when 'professionals' come to a new town they BUY. They only rent when they know they're staying less than a year.

Your argument is essentially that ALL 'professionals' in Bend are going to lose their jobs.

My comment on this observation, is that perhaps MOST 'professional' jobs in BEND are in fact un-needed wasteful, bubble-year jobs.

My advice all along has been to get the HELL OUT OF BEND, if your profession doesn't have a job in BEND, why in the fuck are you here?? I know the PR&MARKETING brought you here, but it sure and the hell isn't going to subsidize you, once its cleaned you out.

Lava, my rhetoric is NOT for these old middle age losers, they're already fucked. My rhetoric is for the young, my rhetoric is for the 25 year olds, so that they can see, and BUY now during a once in a generation and be set.

Most of the middle-age bloggers here that are renters, are so far behind that they'll most likely never own a home again, especially given that their earning days are almost over.

Look at high-tech now, forty and its over.

If you haven't bought a home by 25, and paid off by 40, your fucked.

My rhetoric is NOT for homer, and bruce-pussy, they're already fucked.

Lava YOU are NOT a man-twat.

A man-twat is a clue-less parasite, Homer is NOT a man-twat.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

My point is that if you have a FIXED cost, like a mortgage, and rising everything-else (including wages), the mortgage effectively is going down.

Hell Timmy, that's why they invented NEG ARMS!

Fool me once, shame on you...

LavaBear said...

>>My rhetoric is for the young, my rhetoric is for the 25 year olds, so that they can see, and BUY now during a once in a generation and be set.

I'm with you on most of it Buster but I'm a bit skeptical on these 25 year olds you speak of. At 25 where are they getting the down payment? At 25 how is their credit rating going to be good enough? At 25 where is there work history? At 25 where are the jobs in this town that are going to support them? I just think that your 2% number is too high. I think we could find one or two 25 year olds that are going to fit into your criteria. The rest of the 20 somethings I know in this town are trust funders or are dirt ass poor trying to survive to ski/bike another day.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Elites Consider Move To PetroEuro

The Council on Foreign Relations is now openly talking about the prospect of a move to the PetroEuro. OPEC is seriously discussing whether oil should be sold in Euros versus U.S. Dollars and the Council on Foreign Relations seems to think that this might happen in light of the dramatic decline in the value of the U.S. Dollar. Lee Hudson Teslik wrote a piece published on the CFR’s web site entitled “Considering the PetroEuro” citing various positives for Europe if a PetroEuro were to be established. Teslik even admits that a move from the PetroDollar to the PetroEuro would cause the U.S. Dollar to decline even further. Teslik downplays the harm that such a move would cause the U.S. economy despite the fact that the only thing keeping the U.S. Dollar afloat is the U.S. military ensuring that nation states trade their oil for U.S. Dollars. Remove this link, and a U.S. Dollar may soon be worth less than a roll of toilet paper. This would have a catastrophic effect on the U.S. economy.

The U.S. economy is already unraveling and here are some of the reasons why.

- Iran has already dropped oil sales in U.S. Dollars entirely thus reducing demand for them.

- Oil producing countries are thinking about depegging their currency from the U.S. Dollar.

- China holds over $1 Trillion in U.S. currency reserves and could send the value of the U.S. Dollar into a tailspin if they begin dumping them.

- The Bush administration has announced a proposal to bailout the big banks by fixing interest rates to stave off a massive wave of foreclosures due to the subprime mortgage debacle.

- Irresponsible policies from the Federal Reserve have resulted in rampant inflation with the price of gold and oil lingering around all-time nominal highs. These policies have resulted in the U.S. Dollar Index reaching all-time lows.

- Food prices have increased as a result of the bio-fuel scam which is converting food into fuel under the fraud of man-made climate change.

- The U.S. Dollar is a fiat currency and is not backed by anything tangible. Its link to oil, is only in place because the U.S. military enforces the use of the U.S. Dollar for oil sales. If more nation states trade Euros for oil instead of Dollars for oil, the value of the U.S. Dollar will fall.

- The American middle class and poor are being squeezed by an engineered deflation in the housing market and an engineered inflation in the U.S. Dollar. The result will be the loss of equity in homes and the reduction in purchasing power in individual's bank accounts.

- The U.S. debt recently went over $9 Trillion and continues to go up as the U.S. military continues its expansion of an American empire.

The U.S. economy is on the road to a complete collapse much like what happened in the Soviet Union during the late 80s and early 90s. A switch to the PetroEuro from the PetroDollar would be a dagger through the heart of the U.S. economy. It is remarkable that the CFR would actually publish an article that ponders a move to the PetroEuro without much consideration for the U.S. economy or the American people. At the end of the article, Teslik concludes that it is likely that other nations will follow Iran's lead and begin diversifying away from the U.S. Dollar. If this holds true, this will not be good for the value of the U.S. Dollar and the American people will suffer. Any move to a PetroEuro from a PetroDollar would be a disaster for the American people.

The central bankers and elites appear to be attempting to manage a slow decline of the U.S. Dollar and stave off a collapse of the banking system. The bailouts from the Federal Reserve and Bush's proposal to fix interest rates are clear proof that they are doing everything they can to bailout the banks. With that in mind, the very fact that an institution like the CFR would be pondering a switch to a PetroEuro currency shows that they do not have much confidence in the future of the U.S. Dollar. This should be an indication to get your money out of U.S. Dollars and into gold, silver and other tangibles.


If we see a wholesale move away from denominating the Worlds assets in dollars... Hello Tijuana, U.S.A.

tim said...

>>Any fucking RENTER on this blog, who is still WAITING is full of FUCKING SHIT, and was ALWAYS a renter/loser in the first place.

Dude. You're just talking. I owned two houses (that I lived in--I don't have the landlord temperament, I admit) before selling the second and renting two years ago.

I may be full of shit. I may be a loser. I may be a lousy four-eyed nerd with bad breath. But I have not always been a renter.

Anonymous said...

Dude... this is Bend, and the local MLS Gestapo probably won't let you take a picture of them for fear it'll steal their souls.

Ho, ho, ho, you're a funny guy!

Reading between the lines on the informe.com support forum leads me to believe this problem is due to an upgrade gone bad. Other bulletin boards hosted there are having problems too and support isn't getting back to anyone.

-- bendbb

Anonymous said...

The thing is those houses don't pencil at $240k. They don't pencil at $160k.

Rent on close in small house is $1000 if it's NICE. 800 if it's not.

Let's run with $1000, cuz it's nice.

Figure that 1 month a year it will be vacant on average. (cost= 1000/12 = $83.33 a month)

Taxes are probably around $1800. (cost = 1800/12 = $150 a month)

Maintenance is $1500 a year because if we don't keep it up it will be an $800 a month shit shack. (cost $1500/12 = $125 a month)

Insurance: $50 a month

Your total haul of the $1000 a month after expenses: $591.67.

So if this is to pencil it needs to for $591.67.

Since you want a 15 year loan, but you say you can get one for 5% that means you can take out a loan for $75k. If you put 20% down that means you can spend $94k to buy it. If you put 30% down you can spend a whopping $107k.

If you take out a 30 year on it at 5.75% and put 20% down it pencils out to buy it at $120k. Wait... where have I seen that number... where... hmmm... OH YEAH.. every fucking place that says that to make it pencil it needs to be 120x monthly rent. Maybe they are right.

If you spend more than 120x rent for a place it will cost you each month. That money is an investment but you have to figure that in each month. Until it gets to that price point you can't just go buying shit up because the monthly losses on the properties will kill you.

Please show me some math on buying a $200k house and renting it out for $1k that works. It doesn't.

Disclaimer: I'm a loser renter who previously owned and has the 20% downpayment and 4x income to support a $360k house. My FICO is only 797.

Bewert said...

Re: According to Doug Farmer's numbers it was last year:

Mar 07

Listings Sold: 165
Listings Expired: 70
Avg Square Footage: 1957
Avg Days on the Mkt: 183
Avg Sale Price: $ 402,658.
Active Listings Mar 31: 1790

Apr 07

Listings Sold: 152
% of Inventory Sold: 8.49%
Listings Expired: 61
Avg Square Footage: 1973
Avg Days on the Mkt: 171
Avg Sale Price: $ 424,164.
Active Listings Apr 30: 1986


Actually, no. It was slower, but not lower.

LavaBear said...

Hey bendbb,

I hate admit it, given you are a commie ass, book burning, post deletin' motherfucker...this week I've come to realize the service you provide is an asset around here. So thanks. I kinda miss it.

Love Lavabear

Bewert said...

Here is the original CFR article:

Considering the PetroEuro

December 7, 2007
Author: Lee Hudson Teslik

Easily missed amid the rising outcry over oil prices is the fact that they have only been skyrocketing in dollar terms. Priced in euros—or yen, or pounds sterling—the cost of a barrel of oil has risen much less over the past decade. At recent meetings of OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, ministers disputed whether oil should be sold in euros instead of dollars (WashPost), in light of the dollar’s recent decline. Officials from Venezuela, Iran, and Algeria called for a switch. But Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, both of which hold huge dollar reserves, urged caution, and the bloc concluded the meetings saying it would further study (FT) the impact of the falling dollar on its member states.

If oil were priced in euros, what would the effect be? On the surface, possibly not much, experts say. “Whether they’re selling in dollars or euros, they can make their currency conversions,” says Peter J. Robertson, vice chairman of Chevron Corporation, in an interview with CFR.org. The fact that major currencies are easily exchanged means that oil producers don’t sustain any immediate monetary loss by accepting payment in one currency or another. Yet a currency switch could bring a slew of more subtle changes. First, there is the psychological impact. Robertson says a shift would send a clear signal that oil producers “didn’t have as much confidence in the future of the United States”—a sentiment that could deeply undermine investor confidence.

This, in turn, could further hamper the strength of the dollar. As Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister says “the mere mention that the OPEC countries are studying the issue of the dollar is itself going to have an impact,” adding that a dollar collapse could take a severe toll on OPEC (UK Telegraph) economies. Indeed, several of the main oil-exporting nations would be among the most vulnerable parties, globally, should the dollar’s value decline. Having accepted dollars in payment for years, countries like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates have compiled massive dollar reserves(Economist), rivaling those held by China. They have a compelling interest in keeping those dollar piles as valuable as possible. Other countries, including Iran, have already diversified away (Gulf News) from the dollar, which explains the sharp differences of opinion within OPEC.

Beyond its effect on the dollar, OPEC shifting to the euro could also bring substantial benefits to European countries and companies by reducing currency risk (Guardian) currently built into their trade with oil states. More broadly, an OPEC shift to the euro could bring an overall reduction in global demand for the dollar, taking away one of the main ways in which the United States has financed large budget and trade deficits, as CFR’s Brad W. Setser notes in a recent interview.

The pressing question, then, is whether OPEC will switch. Here, expert opinion is mixed. Pressure from Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s heavyweight, seems likely to keep any immediate switch at bay. Two Lehman Brothers economists write on the website of the Financial Times that Riyadh’s stockpile of petrodollars binds its prospects to the health of the currency. Still, it seems all but certain that more oil states will follow Iran’s lead in diversifying their holdings away from the dollar. Riyadh has substantial support (Bloomberg) in defending the dollar, but Nigeria and Angola, two of Africa’s major oil exporters, are making new efforts to diversify their currency reserves.

Beyond its effect on the dollar, OPEC shifting to the euro could also bring substantial benefits to European countries and companies by reducing currency risk (Guardian) currently built into their trade with oil states. More broadly, an OPEC shift to the euro could bring an overall reduction in global demand for the dollar, taking away one of the main ways in which the United States has financed large budget and trade deficits, as CFR’s Brad W. Setser notes in a recent interview.

The pressing question, then, is whether OPEC will switch. Here, expert opinion is mixed. Pressure from Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s heavyweight, seems likely to keep any immediate switch at bay. Two Lehman Brothers economists write on the website of the Financial Times that Riyadh’s stockpile of petrodollars binds its prospects to the health of the currency. Still, it seems all but certain that more oil states will follow Iran’s lead in diversifying their holdings away from the dollar. Riyadh has substantial support (Bloomberg) in defending the dollar, but Nigeria and Angola, two of Africa’s major oil exporters, are making new efforts to diversify their currency reserves.


Source: http://www.cfr.org/publication/14988/considering_the_petroeuro.html?breadcrumb=%2Fissue%2F2%2Feconomics

It's well worth going to that link and checking out the graph comparing oil prices in Euros and dollars.

The pricing and sale of oil in dollars is the only thing holding up the dollar. The fact that Iran is leading the charge is deeply troubling to the administration, much more so than any potential nukes they may build a decade or more in the future. Scary shit.

But face it, it's going to happen at some point.

Bewert said...

OFF TOPIC

Any of you oldtimers have a favorite vet? Our little elderly Jack Russell needs a checkup, and they old vet we have been going to retired.

Thanks for any input.

Anonymous said...

Vet..Marie Vandeerver at Bush Clinic in Old Mill.

Bewert said...

Thanks, Marge :)

Another CFR-posted article related to the Euro superceding the dollar:

How the Rise of the Euro Threatens America's Dominance

Author: Benn Steil, Senior Fellow and Director of International Economics


April 23, 2008
Financial Times

As the dollar continues its relentless six-year slide against the euro and other main currencies, the question is being asked more and more: what would it mean if the dollar ceded its global dominance to the euro?

The question is a serious one because the US Federal Reserve is pumping new dollars into the global economy at an astounding pace. A broad measure of US money supply growth is increasing at a rate not seen since 1971 when President Richard Nixon imposed price controls and ended the dollar’s convertibility into gold, which recently roared above $1,000 an ounce. With consumer prices having climbed 4 per cent from a year ago, and wholesale prices having soared 6.9 per cent, presaging higher consumer price inflation around the corner, we are living witnesses to Milton Friedman’s famous dictum that “inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, in the sense that it cannot occur without a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output”.

The Fed is acting with the best of intentions to head off a recession. But in a rapidly globalising financial marketplace it is in fact accelerating the demise of its own unique powers. Virtually all national economies show a positive link between currency depreciation and inflation and between depreciation and interest rates, meaning that their central banks cannot use loose monetary policy to stimulate their economies—it only fuels capital outflows and a rise in market interest rates to attract it back. Not so the US, whose currency has commanded a unique premium as the global store of value and the transaction vehicle for international trade. But this may be changing. The dollar is looking more and more like a typical developing country’s currency, with long-term market interest rates, crucial to determining borrowing and investment behaviour, climbing as the Fed pushes hard in the other direction.

If international use of the euro were to continue to rise, the Fed would lose other important powers. In a financial crisis, central banks are supposed to act as “lenders of last resort”, printing money to prop up banks and reassure their depositors. This does not work in developing countries. People withdraw money anyway, not because they fear the governments will let the banks collapse but because they fear the inflation and depreciation that printing money brings. So they exchange it for dollars, undermining the putative powers of their central banks. But what if Americans were to do the same, selling dollars for euros in a crisis? The Fed would become impotent. This is not science fiction. American investors have lately been pouring money into foreign bond funds at a record rate.

What about currency crises, the bane of developing countries? These happen when investors, local as well as foreign, fear that the country may face a shortage of foreign money, necessary to pay off its debts. If America were to become obliged to trade and borrow in euros, rather than dollars, it would face the very same risks.

What about America’s political power in the world? A continuing fall in the dollar means a fall in the global purchasing power of all its foreign assistance, whether for humanitarian, economic or military purposes.

But it means much more than that. The US has exploited the unique role of the dollar in international trade and investment to disrupt the financial flows of its adversaries, such as North Korea and Iran. If such transactions switched to euros and were funnelled through institutions not doing business in the US, this power would be neutered. The US would likewise lose influence over both friends and enemies facing financial problems, as they would be looking increasingly to Europe for euros, rather than to America for dollars.

None of this is inevitable. America is blessed to be the master of the dollar’s fate, in the sense that the world has no incentive to move to another monetary standard as long as the dollar’s long-term value appears secure. But it means that the US government needs to address the country’s economic problems deriving from the housing market collapse and the credit crunch “on-balance-sheet”, through direct, targeted, explicitly funded interventions, rather than “off-balance-sheet”, with the Fed undermining global confidence in the dollar by continuing to flood the market with new dollars. This can only lead to greater damage to America’s prosperity and global influence.


The Fed is digging our grave for us, and all the ask is our penury in return.

Anonymous said...

You can post the Apr google spreadsheet URL here, if you want.

Here's a link to the file containing 4,575 active MLS listings (all property types) for Bend, Redmond, Sisters and Sunriver as of the end of April 2008.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pvRNJCMc8DgtBIIx6CpQvXw

tim said...

>>Vet..Marie Vandeerver at Bush Clinic in Old Mill.

I second that. The whole crew there is great.

Anonymous said...

The thing is those houses don't pencil at $240k. They don't pencil at $160k.

*

30% down, remember investments are 30% down, lets take the $160k, that's $48k down, that means you carry a $112k MTG, right now that costs me about $500/mo. Rent the house for $995/mo, thats all I care about. That pencils.

Taxes, insurance are a fact of life and cost of business.

End of story.

Anonymous said...

Fuck all of you. I used to own almost every property on the Monopoly board. Today I have simply quit playing Monopoly.

I have been there, and I would rather be here with Homer wailing my head on the Bend Wall of Poverty.

Anonymous said...

My stats still stand at
81 sold @ $270k median
April 08,
250k here we come.
One on the side.... 77 month inventory of homes on acreage over 1 Mil.

Anonymous said...

Can we stop talking about whether buying a house will "pencil"?

Let's face it: if you're planning to be in a community for the long run, you buy a house and hold it -- don't view it as an investment.

What we don't need is folks rolling that rolling into town because it's a "hot spot", and then leave when the party's over.

Why can't people settle in a community, get to know people, and GATHER SOME FUCKIN MOSS.

If you join the "rat race" and want that promotion (and AUDI, etc.), you'll be saying adios and off to Reno or Boise or Fargo -- wherever it is that they tell you to. JUST SAY NO.

Learn to live within your means.

Let your kids start and finish school in the same town. If you divorce, don't leave town.

GATHER SOME MOSS. Put down roots.

tim said...

>>GATHER SOME MOSS. Put down roots.

If that floats your boat, sure. I like moving, living in different regions. I'll probably be in Bend until the kids graduate, then I'm moving to Manhattan with the wife for a couple years. After that, who knows. We both like to live in different places.

I don't really like the flavor of moss. If you do, eat a lot of it.

Anonymous said...

I like that mossy feeling,
Oh yeah that mossy feeling,
I like that mossy feeling,
til it's gone, gone, gone.

Anonymous said...

lets take the $160k, that's $48k down, that means you carry a $112k MTG, right now that costs me about $500/mo. Rent the house for $995/mo, thats all I care about. That pencils.

Taxes, insurance are a fact of life and cost of business.


Taxes and insurance are a fact of life and business, and if you don't figure them into your costs then you aren't very good at business.

You keep telling us to get a 15 year mortgage. A 15 year mortgage on 112k at 0% is $622 a month. Since yours is only $500 I can only assume that you can get a loan that someone is paying you to have.

A 30 year at 5% is still $600 a month.

A 40 year at 5% is $540 a month.

How the fuck can you come up with a $500 a month payment on $112k. Interest only? Yes, you can get an interest only loan for $500 a month, and if you do you are just renting the house from the bank then renting it out to someone else making a big old $91 a month for your efforts, and the house still isn't getting paid for.

All I see from you is a bunch of bullshit numbers that don't add up. OOOHHH look at me! I bought for $220k and can rent it out for $1000 and it makes sense!! Er.. I mean I put 30% down and rent it for $1200 and it makes sense!! Er... I bought it for $160k and rent it for $1000 and it makes sense, but only if I don't count a bunch of my costs. Uh.. um... WAIT.. if I only pay 120k for it it makes sense...

Shut the fuck up.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

My stats still stand at
81 sold @ $270k median
April 08,
250k here we come.
One on the side.... 77 month inventory of homes on acreage over 1 Mil.


Dang. 6 1/2 years of acreage properties.

Bewert said...

Re: I don't really like the flavor of moss. If you do, eat a lot of it.

Welcome to reality for those of us that have brains and can work from anywhere.

Suck it up, Buster. We want a decently run area with sporty amenities. We don't give shit if you have lived here forever, and will never leave. Because we have lived in other places. We have a standard to put our pathetic Council up against.

...Just the way it is. So rant on, as you always do.

Bewert said...

Re:..% down, remember investments are 30% down, lets take the $160k, that's $48k down,..

Have you ever met a 25-year old kid with that kind of down payment?

Most that I know are trying to figure out how to pay off their student loans.

Anonymous said...

Re:..% down, remember investments are 30% down, lets take the $160k, that's $48k down,..

Have you ever met a 25-year old kid with that kind of down payment?


Nope. And if they are buying a rental they should already have a house because being a landlord AND a renter doesn't make sense. Your tenants won't take as good a care of your property as you would so you will have more maintenance and you will have months your rental is empty.

That means the 25 year old needs the 48k down to buy the rental, the money he already spent to put 20% down on the first house, full payment for the first house, and $400-$500 a month of his own money to pay for costs of the rental that aren't being covered by the renters.

Say they bought their first house at 4x income. Then they buy a second house at 4x income. The renters are paying 60% of the second house so you just need to cover the 4x of the first and the 1.6x of the second the renters don't.

That's 5.6x income. Unless you decide to buy two "income" properties and it's 7.2x income.

25 year olds can't do that. Nobody can if it's just based on their income from their job.

You maybe can because you have owned property for over 15 years. Those properties are full income after tax/maintenance/insurance. That money can subsidize your new properties.

In todays market you can't start doing that until prices drop much further.

I'm not saying it isn't working for you. I'm just saying it would be pretty dumb for someone just starting out now to think they could do it. In two years it will probably be doable and something the 23 year olds of today should think about.

Except they won't be able to save 48k.

Anonymous said...

Nope. And if they are buying a rental they should already have a house because being a landlord AND a renter doesn't make sense.

If they are 25 and already have a house they probably bought in the last 4 years and overpaid.

If they bought in 2004 and sold in 2006 they may have the money to invest - but that would have been awfully man-twat of them to sell.

If they bought like most youngsters and got creative financing then they probably owe more on the house than it will be worth in another year and their first priority would be affording the one house and not buying a second house they can't afford.

Anonymous said...

*

You can divide the commenters here into two groups -- those who:

(a) moved their families here in the recent past and already seem to be making plans to move on (Alaska, New York City, ??),

and

(b) those who are in this for the long run (you know who they are). Count me in as (b).


You can also divide the group this way -- those that:

(a) see a house an investment -- a way to make money,

and

(b) a place to raise a family and establish yourself in a community.


Yes, I know, the modern economy requires highly mobile laborers, and some people do like to move.

But I guess in Lord of the Rings I would have been a Hobbit.

Anonymous said...

I'll take b and b or was that D&D ;) whichever. Here for the long haul, banished or not from my RE peers, if you can call them that. As they scramble to try to make a living, I will be sailing the warm blue Carribean.

LavaBear said...

b and c

(c) cashed our because they saw the bubble as a freakish anomaly and realized they will NEVER see that much appreciation again. (we're plenty established in the community and our kids think this rental is just like camping)

(d) decided not to buy because they saw the bubble as a freakish anomaly that must correct.

Bewert said...

Re: 30% down, remember investments are 30% down, lets take the $160k, that's $48k down, that means you carry a $112k MTG, right now that costs me about $500/mo. Rent the house for $995/mo, thats all I care about. That pencils.

Taxes, insurance are a fact of life and cost of business.

End of story.


Hmmm...500*12*15=90,000

Who is your bank--I want some of that type of negative interest loan thing.

Re: c and d

d) moved here in the run up to the peak of the bubble, decided not to buy, and hope to stay a long, long time. Thus want the city to be more than a place where cops shoot meth heads on a regular basis.

Not so funny thing--one of my kids lives on the same street as the incident. He showed me video of the cop cars on his cell phone all excited by the action...not the kind of place I want to stay long term. What scares me is that some of these folks are so bad off they can't afford to leave. So it's guns and drugs and drink.

Bewert said...

Great post, very apropos to our own market:

Have you noticed how the position of the market bulls has been evolving? Awgee has. He went on a rant in our forums making fun of the bulls arguments. I will quote him here:

At first, it was, “Prices will continue to appreciate at this rate.”

Then it was, “Prices may not continue to appreciate at the same double digit rate that they have, and it will be healthy for the market if it slows down to single digit appreciation.”

Then, “Prices will level off, but they will never decline in Irvine, (Newport), (take your pick).”

Then, “The market is experiencing a small. temporary correction.”

Next, “Prices have fallen, but interest rates are low and inventory has never been better. It is a great time to buy.”

Now, “We realtors are seeing greater market activity. The bottom is in. Serious buyers are making offers. You may be surprised by multiple offers on the home you are interested in. If you plan to live in a home for ten years, it does not matter when you buy.”

Next month, “This latest decline is just the final blow-off before prices start to rise again.” or “You can’t lose in this market.”

or ( Tell us what the next Kool-Aid sales pitch will be ).

I hope you have enjoyed this week at the Irvine Housing Blog. Come back next week as we continue chronicling ‘the seventh circle of real estate hell.’ Have a great weekend.


My guess on next months koolaid: lowball them ferociously, getting the bank to give you that repo for a loan payment that will fall short off repaying the principle by, oh, say 20% or so at the end of the term.

Just like Buster! If he can do it, you can, too!

tim said...

>>If you plan to live in a home for ten years, it does not matter when you buy.

This makes me throw up in my mouth.

The price you pay is critical to determining your return.

Suppose you buy in a time when prices are moving rapidly, either up or down, and your timing causes you to buy at either $200k or $300k. 10 years later you sell for $325k. Did your purchase price make a difference to your long-term financial balance sheet or not?

Anonymous said...

The bottom is in....Got that?

Deluded Dude

We are in the 4th inning that's all.

Write a great post for this week will ya? I'll be sitting in a hotel in Ft. Lauderdale awaiting my flight to blue water and white beaches and will need someting to read.

Anonymous said...

Hey you fuckin' homos are not gonna believe my next invention. It's a crap and solar powered hat. You guys have any cheap land I can set up on to build some prototypes? You fuggin' homos.

Bewert said...

Re: You fuggin' homos.

Hmmm, I think your looking in the wrong state. Try Idaho, a guy by the name of Larry Craig. I hear he has a nice wide stance, too.

Anonymous said...

What we don't need is folks rolling that rolling into town because it's a "hot spot", and then leave when the party's over.


*

Well the essence of the arg, is that 1/2 of Bend ought leave, because if they don't their going to end up in Garzini's debtor prison, with Homer boning you for 27 years, and fathering your children.

It's NOT a pretty site. So get the fuck out of dodge, all newbies in the last ten years.

Anonymous said...

It's NOT a pretty site. So get the fuck out of dodge, all newbies in the last ten years.

*

Dude, it would be better if you grumpy farts who claim to have moved here 25 years ago get the fuck out so those of us who enjoy living here don't have to keep listening to your incessant boring rants.

Bewert said...

This is pretty sobering:

Credit Crisis: In the Eye of the Hurricane

From Reuters: JPMorgan says no near end to financial crisis: report

"We can only speculate how deep and how long the recession in the United States will really be and how that in turn will impact banks," [JPMorgan Chase & Co CEO] James Dimon told "Welt am Sonntag".

"But we are not done with the crisis for a long time," Dimon said ...

And from Goldman Sachs: Eye of the Storm (research report no link). Goldman argues there is a "gaping hole in the side of the U.S. economy" from falling house prices (significantly more price declines to come in their view) and too much supply.

[Fiancial market] relaxation is unlikely to mark the start of a sustainable recovery.

... the evidence for spillover effects from housing via the credit crunch, wealth effects, and multiplier effects in the broader economy is mounting, particularly as far as consumption is concerned. ... In an absolute sense, the data this week were clearly quite poor.

And from the WSJ: Downgrades Show Storm Isn't Over

ResCap's credit rating was cut deep into "junk" territory after it unveiled plans to restructure $14 billion of debt and possibly borrow billions more from its parent, GMAC LLC.

Countrywide's debt rating was slashed to junk from investment grade by Standard & Poor's after Bank of America Corp. said it isn't sure it will stand behind roughly $38 billion of Countrywide debt.

Credit markets have become substantially calmer since the Federal Reserve helped avert a complete collapse by Bear Stearns Cos. in March. Friday's downgrades were a reminder that other big financial institutions are still struggling under the weight of problem mortgages.

Being in the eye of the hurricane can lead some people into thinking the storm has passed. Maybe. But probably not.

With falling house prices, less mortgage equity extraction, less consumption, and falling business investment (especially for non-residential structures), there is more storm damage to come.


Source, with links: http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/05/credit-crisis-in-eye-of-hurricane.html

How much more structured mortgage debt is going to be slashed from investment grade to junk status in the next 12-18 months?

Anonymous said...

Re: You fuggin' homos.

If Larry Sheriff Blanton is out of jail he is a homo and can likely help you understand Bend better. He likes young boys though, so you better not be older than 17 if you want to be on his good side and stay away from Sawyer Park.

Anonymous said...

Hey and here is another invention I'm workin' on...it's a gold and silver automatic solar powered dildo washer made for marge.
The weenie queen and homo king.

tim said...

Why is Saturday so often gay day on this blog?

Not that there's anything wrong with that.

Anonymous said...

solar powered dildo washer made for marge.

I can't thank you enough, my old one died. When can you deliver it?

I am sitting in Salt Lake City ona 3 hour flight delay, drinking Crow Royal by the bucket. Please entertain me.:)

Anonymous said...

opps, Guess I mispelled a few things..Happy Days!!!

Bewert said...

Marge, what kind of fish are you hunting? Fly rod?

I'm jealous as hell.

Anonymous said...

The Bend Economy Bulletin Board is back online, with price changes and new listings through the end of April.

http://bendeconomy.informe.com

-- bendbb

Anonymous said...

>>Why is Saturday so often gay day on this blog?

Buster loves 25 year olds that can't do math. Buster loves them long time.

Anonymous said...

Bones..Maan Yaa de fly rood

Tee Hee Heee

Bahama mama

Bewert said...

Re: Bones..Maan Yaa de fly rood

Now I'm really jealous!

Send us some pics of flying bones on the end of your line and I'll forgive you :)

Anonymous said...

Dude, it would be better if you grumpy farts who claim to have moved here 25 years ago get the fuck out so those of us who enjoy living here don't have to keep listening to your incessant boring rants.

*

Yes, I concur ALL in the past 25 years, LEAVE, and take your debt with you.

Those of us grumpy old farts that were born here, would become very happy old farts.

99% of the people on this blog-site represent the NEW BEND, and they're man-twats, and their attitude and outlook is precisely why the 'new bend' sucks.

Anonymous said...

>>Why is Saturday so often gay day on this blog?

Buster loves 25 year olds that can't do math. Buster loves them long time.

*

Everyday on this blog is gay-day.

Bend bloggers from day-one were always the Bend Metro-Sexual crowd. A bunch of fat lazy middle age 'professional' long under/un-employed. Shaving their body hair, dressing up as women.

Obsessed with youth.

Are they 'gay'?, a homosexual would have nothing to do with a Bend Metrosexual Blogger.

Is 'marge' really a woman? Is bruce-pussy really a cunt? Is Homer really a MBA?

Bend is a prison, this blog is the messages being passed between cells.

Freedom can only be obtained by exiting Bend.

Anonymous said...

Buster loves 25 year olds that can't do math.

[ Math doesn't have anything to do with buying a home when your young. You just have to have good-credit, and save a downpayment. No math required. ]

Buster loves them long time.

[ Stupid is not loved, discipline and planning is loved. ]

*

Bend has become a town of clue-less parasites that come from one 'idiot-village' to the next in waves, like long ago we called them equity-locust. Last year we pointed at the others.

Today if you want to see a parasite, or Bend Equity-Locust on the downside, just tell that person to look in the mirror.

99% of the people on this blog are losers, and this is the way its always been.

Homer makes them feel good, and smug about being a loser, in a equity-locust town ran by con-artists. Then you get bruce-pussy coming to town to tap into the biz, BP has everything it takes to be a Bend Commish, watch him grow, he is soooooo Bend.

Parasitical Locusts in swarms descend on the current place, now that they're 401k, and HELOC are tapped out, they're stuck in Bend, like fly-paper they sit and rot.

They come to this blog-site to share misery and feel smug.

Such is the way.

Gradually over time, most will simply die. Homer is NOT going to feed you, as he himself has nothing.

The middle-age losers in this town are fucked forever. Some of your children will see your failure, and choose NOT to take that path.

At the very least if 25 yr-olds buy a house, and pay it off on a 15yr fixed, you old losers might have a place to live.

Tell your children that 'renting' is the Kings-Lifestyle, is simply a method to perpetuate poverty endlessly. Then again, this is what makes a loser a loser, bring everyone else down.

Such is the way in any population, of humans, or locust, or chipmunks.

Bruce-Pussy typifies the group the best, a parasite, living off his mormon wife, obsessed with child-fucking. Such is Bend, BP is-will be the perfect Bend politician, the lowest common denominator is always attracted towards politics as there really is no other way to feed at the pig-trough without working.

In two years from now, when Bend home prices are on the rise, the man-twats here, that are still alive, will be talking about how they might BUY a house when the price is right, by then the prices will be high, forever trapped as a renter.

The average person in Bend is a loser, and the majority on this blog are losers. Will always be losers.

Bewert said...

Bitter because I pointed out that your math is ridiculous? Or did you just forget to remove your tampon and can feel the effects of toxic shock syndrome as the infection creeps upwards?

Buster, you tell me where to get a $112000 15 yr. mortgage for $500 month and I'll start lowballing people tomorrow. I was just out east of town checking out some land Friday.

Unfortunately, we both no that such a loan is BS, because $90,000 doesn't come close to $112,000 plus 6% interest. Just as we also know that prices are going to tumble for another 12-18 months, that money isn't going to be any harder to get then than it is now, and that median prices are dependent on a multiple of median incomes and nothing else in the long run.

When local medians drop below 4X, I'll start looking seriously. At 3X, I'll be ready to pull the trigger. Until then I'll rent and accumulate capital.

Hell, I just bought a '96 Nissan Sentra for $200 from a kid who was broke and leaving town. It's got a couple of dents but is mechanically sound and can run all the errands I need to do in a car around town for $10 a week. That way I can park the minivan unless I need to haul something. Just one more way to sock away some money in one of our savings or brokerage accounts.

Oh right, I forgot, I'm a fat lazy loser and would far rather live off my single credit card and lease a Hummer while renting a trailer in DRW than save money...

Change your tampon, Buster. It's past time. The smell is overpowering.

Anonymous said...

Buster, you tell me where to get a $112000 15 yr. mortgage for $500 month and I'll start lowballing people tomorrow.

*

Good credit BRUCE-PUSSY. I'm getting $100k for 4% right NOW from BofA, and USBANK. That be about $398/mo. Do the math for $112k, $500/mo would do it easily.

How does one get $100k for 4% from a 'bank'.

Get off your ass and talk to bankers, and if you don't have a FICA of about 800, well then that's why your a bruce-pussy.

Bewert said...

$398*12 mo *15 yr=$71,460

Who's your banker, Buster? I would love to meet him. If he really hands out loans like this he may be useful in a few months, depending on how fast things fall.

Just had two more neighbors leave town last week, BTW.

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