Thursday, April 17, 2008

Your Momma so Fat, when you email me her picture, BendBroadband send us both a bill!

Yellowbeard said...

IHTBYB:

You know who else we'll lose? People, like me, who are looking for that Undiscovered Gem...Maybe it's my bent for holding "undervalued assets", or some such, but Undiscovered Gems are something I am drawn to, in all forms. Cars, restaurants, towns, etc.

Bend is like a crack whore that's been used up, fucked 50X day, strung out on the cracker, and just vile. She'll NEVER, EVER be the same. Time to go.


Your blogs continue to be great as always, but this again supports those who think you're just talking down the market so you can finally pick up those undervalued homes you want.

You kindly explained your theses about buying stocks after a catastrophic event, and that dealing with bubbles is similar and also takes the form of long cycles, where again the savvy investor buys at the bottom and holds.

This blog is marketing. It is a psychological operation. You want people to be scared into pricing their homes super low, low enough so that they sell and the new lows become a precedent leading the market as low as it can go. Only then will you and the others buy.

Rent and invest the diff; walk away and don't pay; wait until the time you are being paid to enter a transaction; all of this is sound advice. As a buyer you describe accurately the signals of a true buyer's market. I don't question the morals or ethics of this; buy low and sell high is the clear common-sense mantra.

What I don't understand, though, is why you as a writer resist when I or others ask you to just admit you're actively trying to talk down the market. I'd say lots of others here help you do this, some of whom are disgruntled locals, and others are investors like you who immediately understand what it means to talk down a market.

Keep bashing away, though -- I learn a lot here. You have every right to speak freely and you do that very well.

My point is that when you deny your obvious bias and try to present yourself as just a helpful guy, it flies rather in the face of your more passionate posts where you indicate your true motives. You don't need to avoid this concession, and in fact by admitting it I think it adds to your credibility.



Duncan:

There was a recent comment on Bendbubble2 of someone who was suspicious of Paul-doh's motivations. Personally, I think he's just an opinionated bastard who wants to world to hear his opinion. Just like the rest of us.

Anyway, the writer implied that only "disgruntled locals" were reading his blog.

I plead guilty to "disgruntled local" .

But not for the reasons you might think. I'm not disgruntled because of the growth and the congestion and the attitudes. Like I've said before, without all that I probably wouldn't have a business or a livelihood.

No, I'm disgruntled because this growth can't be sustained. Because it was built on hype and promotions, instead of real jobs. Hype permeates this town; from over-blown businesses (and too many of them); to overblown developments with overbuilt houses with unnecessary gates; to a city council who has overreached in public transportation and Juniper Ridge; to residents who have pristine hummers and SUV's that are twice the size they need to be.

Meanwhile, Mirror Pond will be allowed to fill with silt; the roads will be hastily patched; free parking will be taken away; white elephants like the Tower Theater will continue to sit; money is going toward lawsuit settlements instead of police and fire services and so on.

Because the self-important, over blown exceptionalism that pervaded this town, by people who made no real effort to understand the history or ethos of the area.

You tell me every time you sing the praises of Trader Joes that you would really want to live in Bend, California.

Everyone of you who says this is coming from a town that had a Trader Joes. Which means that you want to turn Bend into the town you left. You want to move to Bend, and pull the mass market in here after you.

That's what makes me disgruntled.

Brandeis Drugs. Upstairs had the toys.


Owl Drug.

For newcomers: Cascade Stationary, which was called Ericksens' Stationary. And Masterson St. Clair hardware.

I remember a grocery story across from the old Jr. High, (which was the old High School) Wagners? Safeway?

Newport Mrkt. I think was a Piggly Wigglys.

And next to where my wife's store is, in the Mini-Pet mart another market.

And of course, Rollies Market downtown; used to go there every day from my store in the eighties and get jojos and corndogs.


I always figured I'd be like Roger Gunson of Magill Drug (talk about old Bendites) and they'd pretty much find me slumped over my cash register.


(Not meant to be disrespectful, I liked Roger a lot.)


And before that (I think): Piggly Wigglys. No joke.

That 100k figure is interesting, though. Is that an automatic trigger? because it seems like they were loaning money up the the actual value of the house, in some cases. (not mine.)

Our house would have to drop more than 20%, after we invested 30k in improvements.

"The real point is that they are shutting down all helocs. Doesn't matter how much you could borrow."

Yeah, but he doubted me. Called me fishy!

Interesting, I've noticed in my store too. Despite our vaunted independence as Americans...most people will believe big over small, institutions over individuals, and the internet over the storekeeper.

I call it the unicorn effect. I could sell a unicorn over the internet and you have no way of challenging me.

If I tell you I have a unicorn in my store...well, I have to produce it.

So why would someone assume the story is fishy? Especially since it is under my own name? And I have a store in town?

I have nothing to hide, my mongering friend.

Timothy,
I just asked my older sister and she doesn't remember a Piggly Wiggly.

Googled it, and it says Safeway bought out the west coast PW in the
20s.

So, this may be a false memory.

And after I made such a big deal about my credibility.

Anyone out there remember a Piggly Wiggly in Bend, say, after 1958 or so. (As far back as I'm likely to remember.)

timothy said...

Amazingly, there really was a Bend Piggly Wiggly. I've been in many Piggly Wiggglys but I had no idea that there had ever been any on the west coast.

But sure enough, there are plenty of references to the old Bend Piggly Wiggly. A nice unicorn on the Internet told me so.


>>She really may be the sharpest tack in the bunch up at City Hall.

Bruce, you may as well look for the sharpest marshmallow in a bag.

>Until these fuckers man up and stand up to the RE/dev community, this place will always be in trouble, except for that once every generation bubble.

During a city's boom, it MUST attack all infrastructure problems with a gusto. If it misses that rare chance, it's doomed, because it'll built a backlog of trouble that slower, saner cities don't have.

I talked to someone running for councilor at a party once. All she could talk about was subsidized housing. I told her all her efforts along that route would just keep prices high and hurt the people she wanted to help. You don't build new, cheap housing--you keep old shithouses and shitmobilehomes from being torn down if you want affordable houses. I thought I had her pinned down to listen to me, but she escaped before I was finished.

And then she lost anyway.

>>The contempt for Bend citizenries IQ rolls on.

Yeah well the citizens are only important as a commodity you use to fill up the buildings you build.

Bruce mentioned commercial. Holy shit, the big money in Bend is in sign making. You can't go anywhere without seeing empty or near-empty office space.

It's as if someone thought we were magically going to have 200 more 10-person Internet startups than we really have. What we really have are a couple strong tech companies, a bunch of weak ones, and then a whole bunch of one-man shows that work at home.

Who the hell is going to rent all that office space?

>>"There is a great tradition of furniture-making in our state...

Did I wake up in North Carolina?

Looking a Clive's chart, we seem destined to hit what must be an all-time high for inventory in a couple months. Doesn't it also look like we're already at an all-time high for under-$300k, despite it only being April?

>>You will make MORE MONEY at lower medians. It's RIGHT THERE, do the math.

Cross your fingers that they are better at math than spelling.

>>Can't get on BEBB whaaaattsss upppp?

Free provider for that site has a lot of downtime.

Speaking of economy, I know of several more people looking for jobs now. Anything above $40k is getting snatched right up by people used to making a lot more.

There's always something compelling about a train wreck. I think that's really why most of us are here.

>>Makes it even harder to fill potholes and hire cops and firemen.

Was driving last night. On the radio the DJ was making fun of the city being unable to pave roads and pay for emergency services, but managing to have two more dog parks available by the end of the year. He did his interpretation of the council discussing the issues, making them sound like morons.

It was a dorky point, but it shows how it's becoming common knowledge around here that we're a city of fools being run by a council of greater fools.

>>Just went to fill the propane tank to grill some steaks, and the guy filling his alongside me stated he lives off Brookswood, in a house he moved into "because my Dad is a builder and he can't sell them..."

Hmm. The Millstone houses?

Hopefully the builders around here have procreated madly.

WTF? Is it old skool or unicode?


Marge said...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I just counted 1,425 Bend homes on lots for sale this morning (an exercise I think Marge also completed). That's about 6.4 QUARTERS worth of inventory, or 19.25 MONTHS. I count 591 homes on lots for sale in Redmond, and 92 sales yields 6.42 QUARTERS worth of inventory, or 19.27 MONTHS.


For clarification only...I just counted 1440 active in Bend.
Of those 66 are contingent and are counted as active. Most of the contingent homes are short sales awaiting lender approval for the sale. That means there are 1374 active.
So far April sales numbers are way down YOY. This year 23 sold as of 4.13.08 @ 298k median. In the same period of 07 there were 59 sold @$374k median.
Yup sales are up!! They always picup in the Spring.

Right now there are 87 short sales as active listings and 1 sold since Jan 1, 08. The median price on active shorts is $299k and $249k on contingent ones.
I think it is possible for more than 100 sales a month, but it will be close to 100 for a long time to come.

I might be time for some burrito bets on things that will soon happen in Bend. Or at least post some dates, for all to remember, fo likely to happens.
Like Cessna leaving in a year!
Friedman going to jail this summer!
Pape being indicted by the Attorney general for cheating everyone at the Inn of 7th.
Large RE offices shutting down by fall.
What else?

RE offices going down big....

My guesses are:
Southeby's Cushman&Tebbs
Keller Williams
Windermere
I bet Remax cuts their affiliation with ReMax and goes back to just Equity Group.
There are agents all over town looking for desks at companies that use the OLD split method and not desk fees that they pay every month whether or not you sell anything.
In the boom agents were jumping ship to the 2k a month desks plus all other expenses incurred. Now, with lean times, they are paying out more than they are making. They will either quit or split.
I can see that the bigger companies are losing market share to smaller non-franchised offices by 2 to 5%.

3 new listings in our office this were calibangers leavin cuz they didn't know we had winter.

Yahoo Skippey.

Hope you find some ice on the way out. Better go before August when we have summer.
If we have 5,000 leave this year, there will be enough homes to house the homeless. Maybe we should chip in and buy oneways for them too.

18 years ago, I worked at an office that was in the downtown alleyway from Drake. There was a bathroom that the public could access and the Rice Building occupants also shared it. Shit...I got crabs from it. Dunc, if you meant laundry room that is better than the bathroom! I'd rather not share any room with them. Don't know about the bat however. I think a ticket out of town would serve them well.

I should be outside like the rest of you, but I am holed up in the house watching the Masters, windows closed, with the junipers outside going PUFFF with their yellow clouds. Can't breath in that shit. Where is that nice cold weather that keeps the allergies at bay?

Actually, Tiger has been to Bend many, many times in the past 5 years. He and Steve go flyfishing down the Deschutes with a friend of mine. No...I have never seen him. I am not a groupie:)

========
Lice really don't ever change. They still make ya itch no matter what.
We know what's a comin in the near future. You newbies better take cover and jingle key your way out of C.O.
The early 80's are comin back to haunt us.
I'm tellin ya plant spuds, carrot, radish, beets, spinach they all grow well here as do garlic and onions and they store well in dark cool areas. Plant garlic now. Actually it should be planted in Oct. but now is better than not at all. Spuds and onions now. The rest should wait til June or when the snow is off Black Butte.
Need any more vegi advice?

Can't grow corn in Bend...growing season is tooooo short..no rice either...few types of beans and peas. See above for the few you can grow here, without a green house. Limes would be nice to go with the Tequila. Oh well.

Anonymous said...
St Paddy
Don't forget about the rather large Coldwell Banker office in the Mill that bad boy is gonna shut down soon enough.


CB is too well financed to crumble. Ingrained in Bend forever. I would slit my throat if they went belly up...won't happen. they would lease out offices within(as they are now doing) before that happened.

Maren opened the Pine Tavern, Wetle had Wetle's Department stor down town and Ray had clothing store next to the Tower Theater.

Dunc,
Remember when Newport Mkt.. was Green Mindt? Or when Pat and Mike's was upstairs in the Penny's bldg? That was 79ish. I don't remember when Eddies market and tire place opened out on Hwy 20, but those guys put tires on my truck and let me make $20's a month payments on them, in the last recession and bubble burst.

Ah..Good one LAVBEAR..I forgot about 3 boys.

Our house would have to drop more than 20%, after we invested 30k in improvements.
The real point is that they are shutting down all helocs. Doesn't matter how much you could borrow. Bend is a declining market on the maps and they are all getting shut off. If you need a business loan let me know. Private money, now is the better investment.

Interesting that our county is the only place in Oregon that is tagged that badly. Guess we should expect it with such a huge runnup. I have a feeling we are going back to 2003-2004 medians in the not too far off future. That's $195-$225k. All we need is one really bad summer of sales and this will be it.
Besides what the economy does to us we will be more royally screwed than some. It is hard to get out of Bend without a ticket. With the price of gas most will only get to Weed:) Oh good, stay in Weed at least it's Cali country.

Can't get on BEBB whaaaattsss upppp?

They are so off base! Even P-land wouldn't pay that. That there is Beverly Hills Billys. Pure Gold..Black Crude. Or is that Krud?

Me ( buster ) & Marge, we like the trailer-park lifestyle, I'm happy on horses or dirtbikes. I look forward to pickups again, and dirty streets, dive-bars downtown instead of salons.

Ya got me :) Trailer park will be my next move and I want my 1960 ford pickup back. Will you marry me?

Just took another look at home sales this month. BOY have they picked up. ARGGG
In March thru the 16th there were 44 sold. April(the hot spring month) stands at 33 today. Summer should be very interesting.
Lot o traffic going south today..HUMMM

Bruce asked:
How many of those home sales are auction sales?
++++++

My answer NONE.

True, we will have more autions, but most won't sell at auction. They will end up as MLS inventory.

I guess since the bad news is out of the bag, it's hard to find a few more things to talk about.

Had the best clam chowder for lunch at the D&D today. Finally found out what D&D stands for, as I sat with Creak, one of the owners. Anyone out there know this oldie question. Also had a shot of Patrone,,,Yummm

The Natives Are Restless said...

Daley & Daley....

Yes, you win the 64 million dollar question. They were brothers. Creak has a picture of the building with a wooden boardwalk out front.

bruce said...

CC Budget Work Meeting Update:

36 jobs cut or not filled.

Overtime cut by 22%/$417K

Elimination of Code Enforcement proposed

Building and Planning still sucking dollars, even with huge cuts. Clinton stated they should pay there own way--of course if this had been true three years ago we wouldn't be in such bad shape.

JR dead in water, leaving us $6M in hole, if land not sold this fall. Everybody's got their fingers crossed that Garz can work some magic. (From Sonia) Madras has the prison work sewn up into the foreseeable future, so that's out for now.

Public Safety (fire/police) staffing levels being cut back to 05/06 levels. Fire is planning on closing Tumalo Station about 15% of time. Lots of talk about finding another $100K to keep it open. Finally decided to use half of Mirror Pond money to do so. Even with six stations, we still run out of ambulances at least part of the time two days out of three.

Street maintenance more than halved: $1.7M to $700K.

They finally recognize that commercial fees are too low, "they've been subsidized by residential", but no talk of increasing them. Only grumbling from Clinton that they should pay for themselves.

Question: When was the last time a developer paid his true SDC and fee costs in Bend?

Answer: Never. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

An aside: The new SDC structure is only increasing fees about 30%. COBA has had about 200 contacts with the City staff over increases in construction fees. Five of the seven councilors are directly involved with development and/or real estate in some way.

Back to "news": UGB will be delayed, of someone sues City may run out of lawyer money. Is this bad?

Accessibility, affordable housing take big hits. Transit not so much. Still, Capell talked about killing it.

Planning and Engineering both take huge hits, still far from paying for themselves.

Commercial permit fees for this fiscal year second highest in history--do they really expect this too last? Besides, they are still far from paying for themselves.

Increases? Community Development and Economic Development. Also $250K to airport debt service, $180K to Juniper Ridge debt service. They are trying to build out economic areas with debt in the hope of recouping the outlays...somehow. Not entirely clear. Sonia said "if they sell 50 acres at $5 a sq ft, great! Thats $10M, and I'm even." But then agreed that she didn't know where the $40M for the interchange was coming from, and stated that wasn't really her concern. It's more on Garz and John Russell.

Her not-shovel ready price point seemed like she realized what it was really going to go for, if at all. I mentioned all the current commercial built and in process on the market and she glumly acknowledged it: "it's going to be tough". She really may be the sharpest tack in the bunch up at City Hall.

Also, reserves are being cut back to bare minumums, 1-2 months in many departments, and only two weeks in transit. Scary.

Eric kept coming back to "structural problems". I think this is an allusion to the lack of realistic SDC's and fees, both in the past and present. I sketched a diagram that led from LOw SDC's and Fees-->Planning, Engineering, Street, Utility deficits-->General Fund hits-->Public Safety Cuts. Until these fuckers man up and stand up to the RE/dev community, this place will always be in trouble, except for that once every generation bubble.

Sad. Especially when five of seven are directly involved with said industries. You can see it in their preference to cutting poor peoples' benefits (housing/transit/etc.) rather than cutting Economic and Community Development, rather than mandating realistic SDCs and permit fees.

The fucking head (Mel?) of the Planning and Engineering Departments was stating that the subsidizing of commercial inspections by residential fees was killing us now, and Clinton was the only one who even fucking stated that the developers should pay their own way in fee-based departments. Everyone else maybe thought that was a good idea, but action? Never.

That's all for now, back to taxes, etc.

PS Who ordered the fucking snow today? On the good side, some Cali's may be thinking Tucson ;)


PS That jobs cut number is close but there were so many different layoff and not hired numbers being thrown around it was hard to get a real handle on it. They are cutting or not filling a bunch, though.

On another note, both Johnson and Friedman were absent.

It's a sunny day in Bend!

"Bend home sales up as prices drop"
Houses spend fewer days on the market

"For the first time since September, 2005, the median home price for single-family residences in Bend has dipped below $300,000..."

"...there has been a slight bump in the number of sales month to month and a decline in the number of days properties are sitting on the market..."

Somebody has to post this whole piece of shit.

Also, I posted to new articles to juniper-ridge-info.blogspot.com, and they should also be up at bend weekly.com later this morning. I have a slightly different take on the budget cuts:

BULL-"City services in Bend face big cutbacks"

Bruce"the sharpest marshmallow in the bag" E-"Public safety staffing may be cut to 05/06 levels"

Re: Is this police "code" or building "code"?

City codes, not state and federal codes, like building codes. Things like sign ordinances.

Re: Just remember, Resident Lush and the GOP are doing this to you. Pay them back in November.

Telfer made a comment about how we need to send someone to Salem (her, I'm sure) to fight for the City's right to fix the "structural problem", i.e. that they can only increase property taxes by 3% annually.

Not much mention of the actual structural problem: the stupidly low SDC's and permit fees are not paying for the new development like they are supposed to. Only mention of the was Oberst's statements on how bad his department is hurting now that residential fees are no longer propping up commercial planning and inspection costs.

Not a word about maybe increasing those fees so they would cover direct costs. But then when you have someone like COBA making close to 200 contacts with the City to whine over proposed fee increases, they just don't happen as needed.

This FAA thing could really hurt Gordo if he doesn't man up and get his Repug buddies to bury it. But then, sometime in the not too distant future, the FAA may suddenly change their mind "due to Senator Smith's concerns"...

State pledges $8.96M for 820-job plant

A subsidiary of home retail giant Williams-Sonoma will open a manufacturing plant in Hickory, creating 820 jobs and investing $2.7 million over the next five years, Gov. Mike Easley's office said Monday.

Sutter Street Manufacturing, which already employs about 50 people in Hickory, will open a product development, distribution and upholstered furniture manufacturing facility for Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM).

The new jobs will pay an average of $42,000 plus benefits, ahead of the Catawba County average of $33,332, Easley's office says.

If Sutter Street Manufacturing creates the 820 jobs called for in its agreement with the state and keeps them for 10 years, it could receive a state Job Development Investment Grant worth up to $8.96 million.

"There is a great tradition of furniture-making in our state, and I am glad Williams-Sonoma is bringing it back," Easley said in a statement. "I hope this is the first in a long line of furniture-related industries we will be recruiting with better skill and higher pay."


Boy, we sure didn't do very good with LS, spending over $10M for 350jobs...

Hey, Marge, there is someone over in BBMLand that needs your input.

http://bendeconomy.informe.com/reasonable-realtor-commission-dt3892.html

Re: even if there ARE thousands of cheap places to RENT. Thanks.

Just saw a rental house at Widgi. I thought that was prohibited at those fancy types of places. Of course, if I recall correctly, that house was for sale last summer.

Re: Have you had your head in the sand trap? Widgi Creek has had rentals for years, it's like a mini-Sunriver for vacation rentals.

I work there in the summer, and this is the first time I have ever seen a For Rent sign in front of a house. Quite a few For Sale's, though.

Where, perhaps, are the signs. I was just there yesterday afternoon, I was there 5 days a week all last summer, we use the roads for shortcuts regularly, I note the signs, and this is the first For Rent sign I have actually seen. I have no idea about rentals through the management or otherwise that are not signed, though, since I'm grounds crew.

Re: Bingo, you figured out that not all rentals are signed.

You must live out there or something.

Re: You want people to be scared into pricing their homes super low, low enough so that they sell and the new lows become a precedent leading the market as low as it can go.

Actually, the almost daily foreclosure auctions are doing that already. Example: Pinebrook Pahse III, Block 10, Lot 5, a pretty nice 2-story that looks to be about 2500 sq ft, sold for $329K in Oct, 2005, and was sold at auction for $220K last week. Bank took a $45K bath at that price, but sold it anyway.

The one I'm curious to see repriced is at 23163 Switchback Court in Pronghorn. Sold for $595K in Jan 06, $495K owed on mortgage, due to be auctioned next Monday at 11 AM. That will be interesting.

If your curious to see how many auctions are coming up, search for Affidavit of Mailing / Publication at recordings.co.deschutes.or.us

as of this moment, 202 so far this year, including 39 so far in April. Two more today so far.

Ole Ted Himler is taking a beating, with seven of his properties being auctioned in April. There's only a 5-10 day lag from the mailing date to the auction date, so repricing will happen pretty quickly.

There's a lot of pain out there.

Re: continuing train wreck theme

Fro this mornings BULL:

"Bend will shell out $275K to settle 3-year-old lawsuit"

Announced with no discussion, according to the article. I didn't go last night, and this wasn't on the agenda, so it must have been discussed in Exec Session. Someone should post the whole article.

The continuing, endless lawsuit losses, water company, pumping station, soon the buses, etc. Makes it even harder to fill potholes and hire cops and firemen.

Note the confluence of mine and Marge's posts above:
Me:
If you're curious to see how many auctions are coming up, search for Affidavit of Mailing / Publication at recordings.co.deschutes.or.us...39 so far in April.

Marge:
Just took another look at home sales this month...April(the hot spring month) stands at 33 today.

Will there be more foreclosure auctions than home sales this month? How many of those home sales are auction sales?

This is getting scary. But the quicker we fall, the quicker we get back up.

I've been doing some analysis on SDC's and permits, and things like how our one ERU charge for sewer hookup of $2038 compares to Troutdale's charge of $4426 reveals the true structural problem with the City's finances.

When I get a chance to finish it I'll post the spreadsheet comparing Bend to Troutdale and Ashland.

I know Buster will hate me for this, but CPST is off the fucking wall today. Huge volume, and it is close to 4X last summers price. This new CEO they got it is really doing a good job.

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=CPST&hl=en&meta=hl%3Den

I happened to sit next to one of the top Public Works guys on Monday, and we discussed my little project again. I'm waiting on real numbers on the methane being vented, and Paul said they should finally have good sensors in by late June. Rather than venting a greenhouse gas that 20 times worse than CO2, we can use it to create usable energy. I like that.
Capstone, 5yr


Just went to fill the propane tank to grill some steaks, and the guy filling his alongside me stated he lives off Brookswood, in a house he moved into "because my Dad is a builder and he can't sell them..."

Re: ...why you as a writer resist when I or others ask you to just admit you're actively trying to talk down the market.

I actually don't think that's really possible.


No, we are merely catologing the totally expected collapse of a bubble. Do you truly think that Bend could actually support median housing prices at eight times median income?

It can't. Meaning a collapse is inevitable. We are just talking about it, unlike most.

Funny how quiet things have become. It's like we know the shit has really hit the fan, the "repricing" of local real estate is in process, and there's not much else for us to do.

It's happening.

So let's keep an eye on the CC, and their "ideas". Budget Work Session next Wednesday...I'll be there.

Facts to agree on:
1) We have enough housing to last us ten years, counting platted subdivisions.

2) Our SDC and permit fees need to be raised to a level that actually supports the departments that rely on them. No more General Fund support, no more one-time land sales to provide support.

3) Transparency, especially when it comes to the endless Executive Sessions. They can at least tell us what the topic are talking about.

Buster said...

Keep bashing away, though -- I learn a lot here. You have every right to speak freely and you do that very well.

*

Buster just got out of jail for beating that transient with a baseball bat. I got BENDBB to float my $100k bail.

WRT to this assertion, I think 'yellow-beard' is giving ALL these cunts way too much credit.

They're all a bunch of fucking BORING loser renters.

Fact is there were KILLER DEALS last year, this year, and there will be next year.

Talk down the market?? I don't think so, the market here was FUCKED by TEAM Hollern/Capell, &ASS.

99% of the fucking bloggers here are middle age, fat, lazy, blogger-renters. The normal asocial losers.

You think 'Homer' is a fucking marketing guy talking down, no he's just a loser obsessed with his 15 minutes of fame. Look at virtually EVERYONE on this blog, they're a fucking RENTER, even duncan rents his building for his comic shop.

It's all fucking sad.

If these birds had an intention to BUY real-estate they would have already done so when you could still get credit/cash. Now its too fucking late.

I'm simply coming to Homers aid in a twisted fucking way. I'm the only fucking landlord here, and besides BEM, and Dunc&Marge, nobody else here even owns their fucking home.

Talking down the market does nothing here to help the loser's here like Homer & Bruce-Pussy. They're newbies in this town, and by the time it its bottom, they'll be long gone.

If you think the 'bashing' here is about 'bashing bend homes', your wrong, its about 'bashing' the people who created the Bubble, and FUCKED BEND, and those people be Hap Taylor, Dick Borgman ( Les Schwab ), and Mike Hollern; and the people they own.

That's who we're BASHING here, the boss hoggs that OWN BEND.

Nobody here is BASHING Bend RE per-se.

That said, for almost six months PMI has recognized Bend as TOXIC as Sacramento, CA; and HONESTLY I think its MORE toxic.

This is the town that HOLLERN built, and he's going down with it.

Homer & his bruce-pussy, are just minor players; in this kluster-fuck of a town.

- buster


BruceyPussy wrote on April 19, 2008 5:10 PM:

3) Transparency, especially when it comes to the endless Executive Sessions. They can at least tell us what the topic are talking about.
--------

BruceyPussy will write on June 30, 2011 4:31PM

4) Transparency is really important when it comes to the secretive Executive Sessions. Some day I am going to write up a complaint and submit it to Judy Stiegler on the Ethics Commission.
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BruceyPussy will write on May 30, 2018 10:31PM:

38) Executive Sessions. The CC can at least tell us that they are having these sessions. They don't bother sending out notices. Maybe somebody should write up a complaint, since what they do is against the law.
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BruceyPussy's grandchild will write on December 20, 2078 10:31PM:

38) Executive Sessions. The CC doesn't hold Exec Sessions anymore. They went the way of Regular Sessions, which stopped happening around 2061. They don't bother sending out notices or nothing. They just publish their decisions without people knowing that any meetings were even held. In fact, they don't bother holding meetings anymore. Hap Taylor's grandson, Hank Taylor (son of Todd Taylor) just makes all the decisions, and doesn't even bother telling the City Council first, they find out along with everybody else, when they read the decisions online.

Maybe I should summarize my 12,346 pages of notes into a complaint form to the Ethics Commisssion?

bilbo-bend said...
Dunc,

The whole thing honestly is far too negative that said, that said we both know that 'Bend' is 18 months behind.

I saw a complete collapse in sales for most of my businesses back in May of 2007.

In the past week, I got more orders ( all international, and mostly from Australia, Taiwan, and Israel ), more orders than I have seen in the past six months. All in one week!

Why? Because the dollar is now so fucking cheap.

Now back to Bend, I call the recession back in May of 2007, as I know which of my businesses are the best bell-wethers. I don't think that our 'Bend' will really admit 'recession' until this fall, and then it will last two years.

I think that given the order strength I'm seeing right now, and that the past week sales is the same as I saw in the prior six months, ergo I'm now good for the next six months. The INTL folk were the first to bail, on the US scene they stopped doing National purchase orders back in the Spring of 2007, and there was a little in Fall of 2007.

I expect US military to ratchet up spending in 2009.

Bend will be FUCKED big time for the next two years. Our economy as you well know is all tourism, which will ditch as the US tourist does so on HELOC & VISA.

The INTL tourist will NOT come to Bend, not even to see the pregnant man with a beard.

Diversify DUNC, Diversify. SETUP a website, and let the INTL world know what you have, biz in Bend is going to be dry for the next few years, and if you sit and wait for them to walk in you'll starve, I'm sure you'll survive, but why?

Given how much FUCKING time you waste on BLOGGING, if you spent 10% of that energy on a INTL website marketing your 'hard to find product', esoteric shit, ... You would/could sail this recession. Don't put all your eggs in the BEND basket, because they next 2-3 years is going to be fucking Pathetic.

Getting back to 'negative' I have long wanted to go contrarian on Bend, as its now clear that everyone and their chipmunk know its coming down. Trouble is the deer are in the headlight all waiting for non-existant cali's to buy their crapshack, or hot-tub, or TV, ... or comic books. They're NO longer coming.

Do more 'comic' blogging on the INTL level, plug your product, and let folks INTL know you got shit, they got money, and the dollar is cheap. Their has NEVER been a better time to buy USA shit. Explain to people the history, put your creative work into marketing yourself on the INTL level, that is the future, you'll go the way of the dinosaur if you wait for Bend or USA customers.

jesse felder said....

PMI Group, one of the largest mortgage insurers in the nation, officially categorized Deschutes County as "highest risk" for future home price declines, along with areas such as South Florida, Southern California, Las Vegas and Phoenix.

Needless to say, I don't think they're buying, "the best buyers' market in 20 years," line.
LIV


Central Oregon Real Estate blog said...

Short Sales - Buyers need to be prepared for the long road. We are seeing a lot of short sales hitting our market and many buyers are looking for a great deal. There are a lot of great homes out there, many of them well below the real market value of the home.
This week, I personally had a listing lower the listing price to what will be a short sale. Many agents and buyers alike are “beating down” the door to see this great home and offers are starting to come in. It has amazed me to see what agents are putting in their offers.
A buyer, buying a short sale is not like buying every other home you have looked at. Everything is subject to the lender’s approval. Timelines are different, and you must be prequalified or be able to provide proof of funds if you plan to pay cash.
Most of the time the lender will not approve repairs, maybe the seller will complete a repair as to not have such a big ding on their credit but generally the lender will not. When looking at a short sale knowing if the seller and / or the seller’s agent have a working relationship with the bank is vitally important. Do they have the necessary paperwork ready for the bank? Do they have the additional paperwork ready for you the buyer?
Not every agent has the necessary knowledge to help you through your short sale procedure with success… if you need assistance please ask a lot of questions before choosing your REALTOR®.

Are you looking for water front property in Central Oregon? You might be surprise to find that most of our waterfront property is actually on the river and not on a lake. Although there are lake properties (see this previous posting) if you are looking for waterfront property in Bend, La Pine, Sunriver or Three Rivers South it will most commonly be found on one of The Deschutes Rivers. The Big Deschutes River is more navigational by boats and is much larger and longer than the Little Deschutes River.

Lots and homes along either of the Deschutes Rivers often sell quickly. Before buying on the river you should be aware of many of the land use rules, zoning, septic and well issues of these properties. Because every property is different having an agent that knows the area can be one of the best choices you can make.

There are many issues to consider when purchasing on the river such as; flood plain, can you build, what kind of septic will be required, how deep will the well need to be and will you need a filtration system for the well? Many lots along the river do not allow building as close to the river as some would like to build. And if you have flood plain on the property a conditional use permit may be required. All of these items can be discovered and most over come with the right due diligence and an agent that knows the area.

Real Estate is local and in Central Oregon, real estate is not just buying property but you are purchasing a lifestyle.


Woodhill Homes blog said...

In Your Best Interest: Making a Case for Buying Now

Published by Bill Duffey under Woodhill Homes

With today’s real estate market conditions, now is a great time to buy and trade up! “What?” you may say. But when it comes to buying and selling homes, I always suggest people look at the big picture when it comes to trading up. Okay, you may not get a dreamy windfall of cash you would like for the house you are selling, but if you have equity in your current house you can use that as a down payment on a better house. And if you need a better house (one that’s bigger, nicer finishes, different neighborhood, more energy-efficient or whatever), you would be crazy not to upgrade now. You have an outstanding selection to choose from and waiting will only cost you more in the long term. Think about it.

Consider the “Loss” on Selling Your Present Home:

For example, say your present house is worth $300,000, but because of high inventory and few buyers, you must reduce your price by 10%. So, instead of receiving $300,000, you would get $270,000 and “lose” $30,000.

Consider Your Real Profit:

Now, consider this. Say you bought this home 7 years ago and paid $100,000. You’re still ahead $170,000, less costs of sale, aren’t you?

Consider the “Savings” on Buying Your New Home:

If you are planning to move up to a $500,000 house, which is located in the same market, you could probably buy that house at that same 10% discount or $450,000. This would mean you had saved $50,000. So you “lost” $30,000 on the sale of your home. But you “made” $50,000 on the purchase of your new home. Doesn’t that put you $20,000 ahead?

Don’t Forget the Impact of Interest Rates:

Which way are interest rates moving? Are they moving up or moving down? If interest rates are near an all-time low and beginning to inch upwards, waiting could cost you more than you would think. You might not be able to afford to buy a home at any price.

• Each 1/2 point decrease in your interest rate gives you $25,000 more in purchasing power.
• Each 1 point decrease in your interest rate gives you $50,000 more in purchasing power.
• Each 2 point decrease in your interest rate gives you $100,000 more in purchasing power

Right now, you can get real estate in nice areas for prices that we haven’t seen in a while. So what if you take a little less for your current house? In three to five years when the market has fully rebounded you’ll have twice as much equity in the new house as you would ever have been able to build in the old house.

For more on why buying now is in your best interest according to famed money guru Peter Lynch, check out the “Ignore the Headlines” article from Dan Kadlec’s “Right on Your Money” column at Time Magazine. It’s more than just thought provoking.

Read full article here

More on Real Estate in Bend, Oregon

Related Posts:

The state of the housing (rental) industry in Bend, Oregon

Published by WoodHill under Woodhill Homes

The Bend Bulletin has a very interesting article about the housing industry in Bend. It’s not about home sales… but the state of the housing rental industry in Bend.

While the article does bring up an alternative to owning a home in Bend… the truth is still there: you’re renting. I’m not going to say that renting means that you’re practically throwing your money away… but it’s pretty darn close to it.

Mr. Moore brings up the point that more renters in the market + more houses for rent = falling rental prices. And this is certainly true. And while there may be some incentives out there to go the rental route (such as a discounted first month’s rental price or even some free work done on the property if you rent for over a year), you’re still renting… and not owning. I’d much rather put money towards property & a home I could potentially own than one I’m just renting for however long.

Anyway, a nice read for sure and a different perspective on the housing market.


UtterlyBoring wrote...

BendBroadband Bandwidth Cap Update

If you haven't been following the drama and the outcry surrounding BendBroadband's latest pricing changes, let me sum up what's been going on the last few weeks:

It's been a week or so since this thing hit the wire on a larger scale, and my sources at BendBroadband say they are watching the conversations here and are listening. They will not say, however, if anything will change, but they are listening (still waiting for the new business plans to come out, folks).

One of my original gripes (one that was putting my bandwidth consumption over the edge of some of the tiers) was that middle-of-the-night consumption shouldn't count the same. But something that was pointed out to me privately was a point I didn't think of that makes a bit of sense: The Net Neutrality advocates say that it's basically an all-or-nothing thing when it comes to bandwidth counting -- you can't consider nighttime data from daytime data (even though that's what the power company does). So you're damned if you do, damned if you don't.

A couple protest sites have been created since this all started brewing. One is FixBBB.com, which has been trying to organize a public protest and get more media attention to this cap. They also make a suggestion as to who you can switch to, but I'd recommend avoiding Clearwire and use somebody like Yellowknife or Webformix instead if you're looking for wireless rural Internet. BendTel also provides DSL, but primarily to Business customers.

Another protest site has hit the wire, being run off a BendBroadband home connection (which is bound to push usage up a bit, considering the site's received a few diggs). According to the site, the guy had 214GB of data transfer last month and 15GB between April 10 and 15. Even if he was on the platinum plan, he'd owe nearly $240 last month.

Since I don't have the foggiest idea if BendBroadband will shut his site down for terms-of-service violations, here's the screenshot off his site:

So it all comes down to this: Knowing what you know, if you're using a BendBroadband connection, what are your plans? Are you moving or are you staying? If you're moving, where to? I'm still exploring my options, and will reveal my decision at a later date, but I wanted to see what everybody else was doing as well.

Update on 4/17: Welcome Bulletin readers. All the relevant posts with all the discussions are linked above. I haven't had time to read the article yet, but will comment here when I have a chance to do so.



BendBulletin said...

Driving tourism to Central Oregon

In tight economic times, a region dependent on tourism redirects its efforts to lure motorists

By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin

Published: April 20. 2008 4:00AM PST

Responding to the economic downturn, Central Oregon’s tourism officials plan to refocus their marketing efforts toward an audience that can reach the region by car.

Lodging taxes, which indicate the health of the tourism industry, fell 9.6 percent in December and 1.9 percent in January in Bend, and remained flat in February, compared with those same months, respectively, last year.

In Deschutes County, room tax collections were down 5.7 percent in December from December 2006. But they recovered, showing a 20.1 percent increase in January and a 7.1 percent increase in February, compared with those same months last year. Deschutes County’s room taxes typically come from resort properties that draw visitors who book further in advance than Bend’s mostly hotel and motel properties.

Tourism growth is expected to be flat to moderate this summer, said Alana Audette, president and CEO of the Central Oregon Visitors Association, which promotes the region’s estimated $542.5 million annual tourism industry.

“The first quarter of 2008 was not as healthy as we’d like to see it, and we have a tough summer to beat from 2007,” Audette said. “August was a record-breaker.”

COVA may reduce its national marketing efforts and reallocate some resources to Oregon, Washington and Northern California, Audette said.

“The only shift may be pulling back from national marketing,” she said. “We may pull slightly from the L.A. market, but it’s important to maintain a presence there. We could take a minor portion.”

If COVA shifts some of its resources from the national and Southern California campaigns to the Oregon market, it would use the same movie-trailer concept from the winter TV campaign, and convert it for summer, she said.

The campaign, called “Real Winter,” flooded the Portland market with ads promoting Central Oregon’s snow-capped peaks, ski runs and blue skies as an escape from the dreary, traffic-clogged metropolitan areas. The ads were made in partnership with Mt. Bachelor.

The same concept could be put together quickly and affordably next month using stock footage of summer attractions, Audette said.

Sunriver Resort, one of the region’s largest tourism promoters with a $2 million advertising budget, also plans a greater emphasis on a regional drive market, stretching from southern Washington to Northern California, said Jay Lee, director of sales and marketing.

This summer, Sunriver will place ads in regional newspapers around the state, Lee said.

The resort also will target more niche travel groups to compete with other resorts in the region and the state, he said.

“Our strategy is to send out offers to smaller groups and be more targeted in our direct mail pieces,” Lee said. “We used to send out 10,000 pieces of direct mail. Now we’re sending out five different batches to more targeted groups, such as golfers, foodies and spa customers.”

The Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau, which markets tourism for the city, also will try to draw visitors from within the state.

In May, the visitor bureau will launch new radio spots in the Portland metro area and cable television ads in Salem and Eugene, said Doug LaPlaca, president and CEO of the visitor bureau.

Television ads will feature scenes of fly-fishing on the Deschutes River, mountain biking, kayaking and golf, and a shot of the Tower Theatre.

“We’re trying to position Bend as an idealistic escape from the real world, where people come to have fun in a place where blue skies persist,” said LaPlaca, who became Bend’s top tourism official in August.

He will submit his 2008-09 fiscal year business plan to the Bend City Council on May 7. The plan contains 14 strategies that he hopes will generate increased room tax revenue, despite the slowing economy, he said.

“When looking at the national and regional downturn in the economy, people will still travel, but they will go to driving destinations rather than flying,” LaPlaca said. “That heightens the importance of marketing in drive markets, such as Portland and the Willamette Valley, as opposed to destination markets where people would fly to get to Bend.”

That logic makes sense because Americans are still traveling, but opting for destinations closer to home, according to the state’s top tourism official.

“Individuals still want to take vacations, but rising gas prices and what’s expected to be higher airfares down the road changes how they will take vacations,” said Todd Davidson, executive director for Travel Oregon. “Central Oregon’s tourism marketing professionals are, very strategically, thinking about how they will change their marketing tactics, and responding to consumer trends.”

Another major component of the Bend visitor bureau’s marketing approach will be its completely revamped Web site, which will launch June 1, LaPlaca said.

“Travelers are using Web sites and online resources more than ever to gather information for their travel,” he said. “It will be an ongoing process to establish an industry-leading Web site, which will have breadth, quality and content to convey all the tourism interests in Bend.”

When it launches, the site’s home page will lead into about a dozen sections that will focus on specific tourism content areas, including a history and heritage site, an arts and entertainment site, and a cycling site, LaPlaca said.




cat stevens said...

226 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 226   Newer›   Newest»
Duncan McGeary said...

Where's the bile?

Postscript with your own take, please.

I know you got it in ya.

timothy said...

This landmark post marks a new phase in the blogosphere.

It's like the offseason in baseball or reruns on TV.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Great piece on The Soaring Costs of Liberal Guilt in the Bulletin today:

For the medically fragile, no milestone is too small

Unable to speak and in some cases unable to control their bowels or walk without help, they are in public school because of a 1974 federal law that requires schools to educate students with special needs. The class is designed to help students learn what they can, which could be how to use their eyes to communicate or how to hold a spoon. It’s also time for parents and families to escape the demands of their disabled children, whether that means going to the movies or finishing the grocery shopping.

Although it’s an expensive proposition to educate the students, Bend-La Pine Schools Director of Special Programs Patti Craveiro thinks it’s worth it.

“In a humane world, all of our community should be taking care of the young, regardless of the personal resources they have or do not have,” Craveiro said. “In my heart of hearts, I believe that’s the right thing to do.”

For Julie Welbourn, a nurse who has worked with students in the medically fragile unit for nine years, educating these kids is important, even if what they learn is low-level, and it is sometimes frustrating for the teachers.

“I think everyone should have an opportunity to learn whatever they’re able to learn,” she said. “If they get to the point where they can communicate what they need, that’s what we’re working for.”

Each day begins with breakfast, which can take some time. None of the children is fully capable of eating without some help. Some must be spoon-fed, others can handle the implements with a bit of help. Many days, a nurse will ask Nimsi Marquez, 8, to pick between juice and oatmeal, while an education assistant tries to keep Mathew from scooting his chair away from the table, his way of showing he’s not hungry. It’s a long process....

Unable to speak and in some cases unable to control their bowels or walk without help, they are in public school because of a 1974 federal law that requires schools to educate students with special needs. The class is designed to help students learn what they can, which could be how to use their eyes to communicate or how to hold a spoon. It’s also time for parents and families to escape the demands of their disabled children, whether that means going to the movies or finishing the grocery shopping.

Although it’s an expensive proposition to educate the students, Bend-La Pine Schools Director of Special Programs Patti Craveiro thinks it’s worth it.

“In a humane world, all of our community should be taking care of the young, regardless of the personal resources they have or do not have,” Craveiro said. “In my heart of hearts, I believe that’s the right thing to do.”

For Julie Welbourn, a nurse who has worked with students in the medically fragile unit for nine years, educating these kids is important, even if what they learn is low-level, and it is sometimes frustrating for the teachers.

“I think everyone should have an opportunity to learn whatever they’re able to learn,” she said. “If they get to the point where they can communicate what they need, that’s what we’re working for.”

Each day begins with breakfast, which can take some time. None of the children is fully capable of eating without some help. Some must be spoon-fed, others can handle the implements with a bit of help. Many days, a nurse will ask Nimsi Marquez, 8, to pick between juice and oatmeal, while an education assistant tries to keep Mathew from scooting his chair away from the table, his way of showing he’s not hungry. It’s a long process.

“One of the biggest challenges for me personally is you work on a goal for so long to see a small amount of progress,” Welbourn said. “You can be doing the same goal for days, but it’s like you see a piece of life in their eyes, and it makes it worthwhile.”

Sherpa said much of the work done in the medically fragile unit is for the benefit of the families.

“A lot of it is respite care,” Sherpa said, “to be able to send them to school and have it be a safe situation, where they’re learning and stimulated, and in a different way than at home.”

Craveiro, the special programs director, said it’s even more than that.

“I think parents of the severely disabled bear a special burden that society needs to share,” she said. “No one would choose this. But there but for the grace of God goes any of us.”

The twins’ parents, Scott and Ruth Boehmer, understand that. They said it’s helpful to have some time to get things done each day.

Ruth, a stay-at-home mom, said getting shopping done is much simpler without the boys.

“We can get things around the house done,” Scott said. “Just all-around, everyday life things.”


Once physical therapy is complete, students often go into assigned general education classrooms for story time or another event like music class.

“When I was a kid, it was like, ‘Don’t look at them,’” Sherpa said. “It’s good for other kids in the school to see kids like this.”

And the normal students get to learn all about their disabled classmates.

One day, Welbourn brought Elliana into Kellie Kathman’s class. When she wheeled in, the rest of the students cheered.

“Ellie!”

They offered her compliments on the plush bunny she’d brought with her to class. Then Kathman started reading a book about a sleepy pig, and students took turns passing the book to Elliana so she could touch the fuzzy illustrations.

When her shoe fell off, Welbourn was ready.

“Oh no!” she said, laughing. “Cinderella.”

Throughout the story, Elliana wiggled her arms and legs. When it was time to leave, the students all said goodbye, and Ellie moved an arm up, as if waving to them.

The students have to eat lunch, then spend the rest of the day busy, working on the computer or with other learning implements. Some return to their classrooms. On a recent day, Nimsi sat at the computer watching photos of her family flash across the screen, while Danny sat on a mat and held a musical toy to his ear. Another day, Welbourn placed Elliana on a padded table and removed her back brace to stretch her arms, and rub her jaw and neck.

At the end of the day, the Boehmers pick the twins up from school, and the rest are wheeled to the waiting school bus. Welbourn and co-workers communicate on a daily basis with parents by writing in logs that they send home with students.

Their schoolwork isn’t complex. But for these students, it may mean the world.

“I like to think they’re happy,” Welbourn said. “It gives them an opportunity to be around other kids their own age, it lets them do what they’re capable of doing. If there’s something in there, and we can help with it, it’s all worthwhile.”


Love it. Public schools are about as appropriate for teaching these kids as a library is for teaching soccer.

They've even worked Cinderella, hero-fantasies & other liberal BS and indoctrinated it into these kids heads.

Do these kids deserve some sort of education? Hell yes! But this "mainstreaming" is possibly The Stupidest, Most Expensive execution conceivable. The "mainstreaming" is done because the parents refusal to accept reality that Their Kids Are Different, and cramming them shoulder with "normal" kids ain't gonna "rub off".

It's TOO FUCKING BAD that your kid hasn't fulfilled your pie-in-the-sky liberal fantasies, BUT FUCKING UP THE EDUCATION OF 35 OTHER KIDS IS FUCKING SELFISH & ABOMINABLE.

Even the babysitting function of the school & by extension The Federal Government is exposed for what it is. These kids have become an INCONVENIENCE for their parents & as such are abandoned to the school system, a COMPLETELY INAPPROPRIATE venue.

This deranged fucking system costs taxpayers MILLIONS, and it is solely due to PATHETIC SELFISH PARENTS & LIBERAL GUILT.

Bend-LaPine is overrun with Hispanic kids who CANNOT speak English, are not being taught English, who cannot communicate with the teacher, but their parents are working at some shithole job ILLEGALLY to make minimum wage... WHY?

WTF!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Where's the bile?

Postscript with your own take, please.


See above.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Is it a coincidence this person's name is Sherpa?

Sherpa: Someone who shepherds along some lazy fucker who is too wimpy to do the work themselves.

Thank God these lazy ass parents have a Sherpa in the local school system to do the hard work that they won't.

timothy said...

This 1974 law attracts money like darkness attracts a grue.

Public policy is all about trade-offs. Doing stuff in an absolute manner is just a good way to use up 10 times as much money as reasonable people might make thinking practically and locally.

Please, provide those overburdened parents some help. Provide those poor kids some appropriate stimulus. Teach mainstream kids some compassion.

But seperate it from learning. Don't complain that our schools are not churning out world-competitive students without asking why education money has been diverted to such a degree.

Paul, I'm with you on this one. But I'm against you on the Hispanic issue. Yes, I want the system fixed so only legals are here. But if a Hispanic kid is here, we need to teach him or her. It's in our best interests. There is nothing wrong with Hispanic kids. They learn just fine.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Doing stuff in an absolute manner is just a good way to use up 10 times as much money as reasonable people might make thinking practically and locally.

This is what NO CHILD LEFT BEHIND is. This legislation has so many unintended consequences (?) it's not even funny. It's primary side effect is to slow down the rate of teaching progress to the SLOWEST KID IN CLASS.

"Mainstreaming" luckily slows things down to the sleeping point. My kids come home with spelling words & math problems that they could do in kindergarten (3-4 years ago). Public schools are an economic & educational abomination.

When kids ARE different, we insist that they paradoxically be MAINSTREAMED, but also get an enormous amount of SPECIAL TREATMENT. Typical of liberal doctrine, what they believe is COMPLETELY INTERNALLY INCONSISTENT & IMPOSSIBLE IN ITS EXECUTION.

"I want my kid to be with other kids, but I also want him to receive an inordinate amount of attention, money, and resources that is not available to other kids."

But I'm against you on the Hispanic issue. Yes, I want the system fixed so only legals are here.

Solution: Abolish the U.S. Merge with Mexico.

OK, Brucey... don't you think we should AT LEAST teach these kids English FIRST? We're NOT EVEN DOING THAT. We're allowing this ILLEGAL DUMPING of kids, and NO ONE has the slightest intention of teaching them ANYTHING.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Sorry Timmy... I addressed that to Brucey out of reflex.

I was elected to lead, not to read!"

McBain

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And what's stupid is that "mainstreaming" has produced Yet Another Level Of Stratifying Kids By Intelligence. To wit, the TAG program. This program pulls kids out of "mainstream" classes, and puts them in classes that are actually closer to where ALL NORMAL KIDS should be.

And what's GREAT is while AUTISTIC kids are mainstreamed at HORRENDOUS COSTS, the TAG program has to justify it's existence at ZERO ADDITIONAL COSTS or it will be terminated.

But we've dumbed it down to the COMA POINT, and luckily while QUALITY HAS IMPLODED, COSTS HAS EXPLODED. Thank God for LIBERAL BULLSHIT STUPIDITY.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

California home prices plummet 26 percent amid foreclosures

A glut of foreclosed homes helped prompt a 26 percent plunge in California home prices in March, spotlighting a trend that experts said is likely to keep squeezing the struggling market for at least several more months.

More than 38 percent of California homes sold in March had been foreclosed at some point during the previous year, DataQuick Information Systems said in its survey released Thursday.

That helped drive the state's median home price down to $358,000, from $484,000 in March 2007, when the market peaked, DataQuick said.

In addition, the number of new and resale houses and condos sold last month plummeted 38.3 percent from a year earlier to 24,565.

"When you look at areas with high foreclosure rates, the foreclosures sort of establish the value of the market," said Russ Valone, president of MarketPointe Realty Advisors, a research firm in San Diego.

Prices in California, once among the nation's hottest housing markets, could bottom out in summer or fall, around the same time foreclosures peak and lenders further loosen credit standards, DataQuick analyst John Karevoll said.

"Lots of activity is on hold because the mortgage spigot turned off," Karevoll said. "Between now and fall, we'll see more mortgage lending. Lots of these sales that haven't happened will happen."

Meanwhile, even more foreclosed homes are likely to go on the market as low, introductory interest rates expire and people struggle to make house payments, said Rick Sharga, vice president of marketing at RealtyTrac, a research firm.

Figures for previous years were not immediately available, but Karevoll said the March percentage for foreclosed home sales was believed to be an all-time high for California.

Foreclosed homes in the state sell for about 15 percent less than non-foreclosed homes in the same neighborhoods, bringing all prices down, he said.

Riverside and San Bernardino counties — a rapidly growing region known as the Inland Empire — were particularly hard hit. Foreclosures accounted for 56 percent of the sales last month in Riverside County, where the median price of a home fell 27 percent to $306,250.

The nationwide foreclosure glut is expected to worsen in May and June as two- and three-year introductory interest rates expire on homes purchased in 2005 and 2006, Sharga said.

Further souring of the economy could make it even tougher for people who lose jobs to cover mortgage payments, Karevoll said.

"If we do have a recession in California, things will get bloody out there," he said.

The foreclosure glut has hit California especially hard. The state ranks only behind Nevada — and just ahead of Florida, Arizona and Colorado — in the percentage of households in foreclosure, according to RealtyTrac's March rankings.

California and Arizona are victims of an overheated market in the early part of the decade, when banks lent money for homes that buyers could not afford, said Sharga. Nevada and Florida had lots of speculative buyers.

Los Angeles Neighborhood Housing Services, a nonprofit group, is counseling about 2,000 financially troubled homeowners a month, up from about 200 a month at this time last year, said Lori Gay, chief executive officer.

The group developed a "triage system" to accommodate the flood of people seeking to avoid foreclosure, Gay said. Previously, the organization worked with people over three or four months, often in classrooms. Now it asks people to tackle questions online and aims to give them quick answers.

"We're expediting in a way that we wouldn't have to before," Gay said. "Now there's not a lot of time. They're up against the wall."

The affordability of foreclosed homes has helped some buyers.

Cyndie Schubert, 52, who earns $16.94 an hour as a parking garage attendant, said she bought a San Diego home out of foreclosure for $250,000 after two years of looking for places that were out of her reach.

"I walk to work, I have my white picket fence," said Schubert, who lives with her 25-year-old daughter. "It's got a little yard but that's all right."

Her mortgage payment of $1,104 eats up much of her first monthly paycheck, but it's only $300 more than what she was paying to rent an apartment in a crime-ridden neighborhood where she was raised in suburban El Cajon.

She pays her other bills with her second monthly paycheck.

"I got caught up on my bills, and it was time for me to do something," Schubert said.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Vacant Homes in U.K. Prove Speculator Nightmare as Losses Mount

By Simon Packard

April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Richard Lee spent 5.3 million pounds ($10 million) buying 20 rental homes across the U.K. with just 150,000 pounds of his own money. Today, the properties are worth about 60 percent less and owned by the banks that financed the purchases.

Lee was one of thousands enticed by one of Europe's top five best-performing residential property markets during the past decade. Now repossessions are mounting and properties stand empty as many investors fail to find the tenants needed to cover their mortgages after a building boom flooded cities, especially Leeds and Manchester, with apartments.

The unraveling buy-to-rent investment market contributed to a 2.5 percent drop in home prices last month, the biggest since 1992, a report by mortgage lender HBOS Plc shows. Britain is among the countries most likely to follow the U.S. into a housing slump, according to the International Monetary Fund. Prices may drop 10 percent this year and next, said Michael Saunders, a London-based economist at Citigroup Inc.

``Buy-to-let investment was a bubble inside the housing market bubble,'' Saunders said. ``It's turning out worse than I thought.''

Home purchases by investors such as Lee helped triple housing prices between 1997 and 2007. The buy-to-rent market in the U.K. increased 19-fold to about 190 billion pounds in the same period, according to London-based broker Savills Plc.

Tax Incentive

Banks started promoting buy-to-let mortgages in the mid- 1990s, after the government ended rent controls and introduced fixed-term leases to ensure that tenants vacated properties. Interest payments on the loans are tax-deductible, making them attractive for landlords.

Rental properties generated annual investment returns of about 22 percent in the five years ended March 31, according to the Association of Residential Letting Agents in Warwick, England. The U.K. FTSE All-Share Index climbed about 12 percent, including reinvested dividends.

The ``virtuous circle'' of rental investment that powered the U.K. housing market was broken by falling property values and banks' retrenchment following record mortgage-related losses, Saunders said. Banks and securities firms have disclosed about $245 billion of asset writedowns and credit losses since the beginning of 2007.

The number of available buy-to-let mortgages dwindled to 926 in the first week of April from 3,362 at the start of August 2007, according to personal finance Web site Moneyfacts. Average two- year fixed-rate mortgage rates have climbed to 6.5 percent, or 1.5 percentage points more than the gross rental yield from a property in the first quarter.

Vulnerable Investors

Investors such as Lee, who have high levels of debt, and homebuilders that focused on developments in the center of English cities such as Leeds and Manchester are now the most vulnerable to the deflating buy-to-let market.

Buy-to-let investors who were behind on their mortgages by three months or more increased by 25 percent to 7,584 in the fourth quarter, according to the London-based Council of Mortgage Lenders. Repossessions rose 26 percent to 1,247.

Connells Asset Management in Leighton Buzzard, England, which sold more than 10,000 repossessed homes last year, expects the number of foreclosures to rise from the 20 percent gain already reported, led by cities in the northern part of the country.

High-Rise Condos

The skyline of central Leeds is dominated by construction cranes erecting high-rise condominiums, 60 percent of which were sold before completion to buy-to-let investors, according to London-based real estate broker CB Richard Ellis Hamptons International.

``Leeds is where we are seeing more city-center apartments coming onto our books,'' said Managing Director Mike Pudney.

Thousands more apartments are being built in the center of the city, where two-bedroom homes lost 12 percent of their value in the past two years, according to London-based research firm Hometrack Ltd. Brokers report average rents for these properties have dropped by about 20 percent and about 13 percent of city- center apartments are empty, according to Leeds City Council estimates, based on local tax returns.

``Twelve months ago, development was an easy way to make your fortune,'' said Tom Bloxham, chairman of Manchester-based Urban Splash, which develops derelict sites. ``Today, it's a disaster zone.''

`Mini-Floridas'

City center condominium developments like what's happening in Leeds represent Britain's ``mini-Floridas,'' said Alastair Stewart, who tracks homebuilders at Dresdner Kleinwort Securities in London. The state of Florida had the third-highest foreclosure rate in the U.S. in March, with one foreclosure for every 282 households, according to RealtyTrac Inc., the Irvine, California- based seller of data on mortgage defaults.

In Leeds, the market got so bad that a unit of Taylor Wimpey Plc, the U.K.'s largest homebuilder, delayed the planned 800-unit Green Bank condominium project in November. It may seek a zoning change to allow a mixed development of offices, shops and apartments. Taylor Wimpey dropped 40 percent in the past six months in London trading on concern about the collapse of the buy- to-let market and the slide in land values and home prices.

Barratt Developments Plc, Bellway Plc, Bovis Homes Group Plc, Berkeley Group Holdings Plc, Persimmon Plc and Redrow Plc declined by 16 percent to 48 percent in the same period.

Investment Clubs

Newly built apartments accounted for a ``significant part'' of the investments made by 61 percent of new buy-to-let investors over the past six years, Savills reported. Many of those purchases were brokered by the dozens of Internet-based property investment clubs that sprang up since 2000.

The clubs often attracted novice buyers, some of whom lacked ``an understanding of the risks that such investments pose,'' according to U.K. regulators at the Financial Services Authority. In May 2005, the government forced two of the clubs into liquidation to protect investors.

For a fee, the clubs offer members residential developments before construction work begins. They negotiate a price with homebuilders that is below the valuation made by an appraiser, and collect a percentage of the purchase price as a fee. The clubs also offer their dues-paying members property management, home insurance, legal and mortgage-broking services.

City Gate 2

Lee, 37, bought an apartment in the City Gate 2 development in Manchester for 239,500 pounds in October 2005. An identical property in the same building sold for 115,000 pounds earlier this year, said Lee, who has surrendered his keys to the bank.

Lee also purchased 17 properties, most of them in Leeds, in late 2005. He said he expected to earn a steady income from renting to students.

After the transactions were completed, Lee said he realized he had overpaid for the properties. He said 15 hadn't been refurbished as promised, the tenants occupying the homes had left and rental-income projections were wildly optimistic.

``The valuations were 15 years ahead of their time,'' Lee said. ``The biggest genius in the world couldn't have got those loans to work.''

Lee estimates his properties are worth about 3 million pounds less than he paid for them. The banks will probably ask Lee to repay the money when the homes, now in their possession, are sold. He doesn't have the money, he said.

Legal Action

Lee and 85 other investors plan to sue the developers, lenders, appraisers and solicitors involved in their property transactions. Lee's attorney, Hammad Ahmad of Max Gold Partnership in Hull, England, said the lawsuit will probably be filed in about two months.

Regulators and the government are beginning to review the practices and excesses of the U.K.'s housing boom. The FSA said in its 2008 report on financial risks that ``organized property fraud is most common in new-build and purpose-built flats in major towns and cities, and where renting is the main form of tenure.''

The FSA is probing more than 200 cases of suspected mortgage fraud and the City of London Police department is recruiting for its economic crime department to investigate fraud nationally.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling last week appointed James Crosby, former chief executive officer of HBOS, to make recommendations on improving the U.K.'s mortgage market.

Tony McKay, chief operating officer of Instant Access Group, the country's largest property investment club, said it's time the U.K. started regulating companies such as his.

``It's really strange,'' he said in an interview. ``A pension-provider is regulated for taking in just 20 pounds a month.''

Many homeowners and tenants have profited from the buy-to-let boom, said Michael Ball, professor of urban and property economics at Reading University, 35 miles west of London. And even as home prices decline, most investors will hold onto their properties, according to a Savills survey.

Once he has dug himself out of his current financial difficulties, Lee will consider getting back into the business.

``Would I do buy-to-let again?'' he said. ``Without a shadow of a doubt. This time I'll ensure I'm in control of all the levers.''

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

City of London Police department is recruiting for its economic crime department...

Looks like we're close to anarchy & civil war in this Post-Bubble Apocalypse...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000%5C298.pdf

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

``The valuations were 15 years ahead of their time,'' Lee said. ``The biggest genius in the world couldn't have got those loans to work.''

Lee estimates his properties are worth about 3 million pounds less than he paid for them. The banks will probably ask Lee to repay the money when the homes, now in their possession, are sold. He doesn't have the money, he said.

Legal Action

Lee and 85 other investors plan to sue the developers, lenders, appraisers and solicitors involved in their property transactions. Lee's attorney, Hammad Ahmad of Max Gold Partnership in Hull, England, said the lawsuit will probably be filed in about two months.


Good to see that the U.S. is not the only country filled to the brim with lawsuit-happy deranged lunatics who refuse to take responsibility for their actions.

I LOVE this VICTIM-MENTALITY that has overrun this planet. Feels like something akin to the Black Plague will be necessary to cleanse the planet of humanities increasing need to blame others for their own genetic programming to self-destruct.

Jeebus, please KILL THESE STUPID FUCKERS.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

This landmark post marks a new phase in the blogosphere.

It's like the offseason in baseball or reruns on TV.


Sometimes, wouldn't you rather watch an old re-run of McMillan & Wife than some crappy new reality show?

LavaBear said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XoF2DLBO1Vo

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I have 3 questions:

1) WHY IS IT A WHITE OUT BLIZZARD IN BEND ON APRIL 20 WHEN IT'S SUPPOSED TO BE 65 DEGREES OUT?

2) Why!

3) WHY!

timothy said...

>>don't you think we should AT LEAST teach these kids English FIRST?

No. I don't think all math and science learning should stop while the kid learns English.

Hispanic kids that grow up here will learn English easily. Their kids won't even understand the Spanish-speaking grandparents. There is no evidence that the Hispanics are learning English at a slower rate than previous waves of immigrants. It just seems that way because that's what we're surrounded by at the moment.

But back to the other problem. Ever since the Civil War, the Federal Gov't has held sway over the states, and pressed its power more and more. The trend is unmistakable. All it takes is the country seeing a bad situation somewhere and an oppressive Federal solution is created.

timothy said...

>>3) WHY!

Dude. Global cooling.

Anonymous said...

"But if a Hispanic kid is here, we need to teach him or her. It's in our best interests. There is nothing wrong with Hispanic kids. They learn just fine."
+++

And also:
">>don't you think we should AT LEAST teach these kids English FIRST?

No. I don't think all math and science learning should stop while the kid learns English.

Hispanic kids that grow up here will learn English easily."

+++

Okay, I hear the bit about teaching the local Hispanic (some illegal, some born here, thus legal) kids.

But the way to teach 'em is via English. In Woodburn, they try and teach the Hispanics in Spanish. I think they even try teaching them English classes in Spanish. They (Woodburn School District) brags about being able to teach a Hispanic student through all high school without speaking in English. Imagine that!! A high school graduate who still can't speak or understand a lick of English!! How many jobs do you think that student would be qualified for in the Woodburn area?

That is wrong. Hispanic students need to be totally immersed in English. Want to learn in America? Then learn everything in English. Math in English, History in English, Biology in English, etc...

The excuse that Woodburn SD gives is that it is hard to be immersed in English. So what? Life is tough. Deal with it. No pain no gain. I did it in a foreign country; so can they, and be beeter for it.

Anonymous said...

... are you really that much more 'beeter' for it?

timothy said...

What do we hear from the Bulletin about the Newport moderns?

Nothing. Nothing. Nothing.

Nothing.

Then finally, we get the story. But not until AFTER one has sold and 3 are pending.

So it's still pitched as a bit of a success story. Whew, they finally sold. Sure, half-off, and the builder and banks LOST money. But it's not part of the gaping chasm of inventory any longer. Maybe now things are moving since prices are falling. All we need to do is clear it all out and we're good. We'll be back at 30% annual appreciation any time now.

It really wasn't a story that the Bulletin wanted to cover until the pending sales.

timothy said...

I think Hispanics not learning English is mostly a myth. Or there are a few cases or a few places where it's true and people ignore the huge numbers of Hispanics learning English.

"Hispanics by a large margin believe that immigrants have to speak English to be a part of American society and even more so that English should be taught to the children of immigrants, according to recent surveys conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center."

7/8 of Hispanics born here say they speak English fluently. Yes, the 1 out of 8 is bothersome. But I bet their kids will speak fluently. Just doesn't bother me.

The real problem is the size of this immigration, not whether we educate them in English or Spanish.

My grandfather escaped Austria and was immersed in English. He always felt sad for the couple of years in school where he didn't know what the hell was going on. Yes, he learned English, but he felt shortchanged on the math he lost, as it directly applied to the work he ended up doing.

Mostly, I think we should admire those kids who are speaking and getting along in two languages. We're a bunch of spoiled fuckers, we who have been here for a few generations.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

It really wasn't a story that the Bulletin wanted to cover until the pending sales.

That applies to just about EVERY Bend RE story extant. I was very surprised they ran such a thing at all.

You're right, they waited until SILVER LINING time... but the guts of this story was about The Cloud. I think they've figured out that Head-In-Sand strategy og ignoring of this, The Single Most Important Story In The History Of Bend, undermines their credibility.

Plus The Absence of Bulletin backbone in editorial independence dictates that negative RE stories are no longer as taboo as they were a year ago, when everyone here was still on the fence regarding Bend escaping the National Calamity. A year ago, EVERY SINGLE STORY WAS AMBIVALENT, full of RE experts (Realtors) who were predicting that Bend would avert disaster. Now, at least that has ebbed somewhat...

bruce said...

Re: OK, Brucey... don't you think we should AT LEAST teach these kids English FIRST? We're NOT EVEN DOING THAT. We're allowing this ILLEGAL DUMPING of kids, and NO ONE has the slightest intention of teaching them ANYTHING.

Most of the kids I've seen (I've been at RE Jewell of late, with a large percentage, maybe up to a 25% in some grades, of Hispanic students) understand English quite well, although some have trouble. They go into the NCLB tutoring progam with all the white kids that need extra tutoring.

Re: "Mainstreaming" luckily slows things down to the sleeping point. My kids come home with spelling words & math problems that they could do in kindergarten (3-4 years ago). Public schools are an economic & educational abomination.

No, mainstreaming isn't the cause for that--NCLB is. This law forces schools to teach to specific testing or risk losing funding. For smart kids, this level is pretty low. Mainstreaming has absolutely nothing to do with dumbing down classwork for regular students.

The biggest issue I've seen with special needs kids is the extremely wide range of physical and mental abilities. Mainstreaming does most of them a lot of good, and they will be much less of a burden on society after they know how to count, cook, tell time, behave in socially acceptable ways, control their anger, etc.

Note that many of the special needs kids have behavioral issues, as all the ones I've been working with of late. Most of them have had a pretty sad life. As one of them put it the other day when I asked why he never had his daily progress report signed as is required to be on "green", "My Dad doesn't care and my Mom sleeps all day long."

Another with a single mother just lost their home and had to move into a motel a month ago. Another was recently reclaimed by his biological mother at age nine after being raised by his stepmother since his first year of age, who then promptly decided he didn't need his meds. This little guy simply cannot sit still without his meds. Luckily his mom soon realized that yes, perhaps he better stay on them. He is above his grade level in math.

Some of the ones I've run into that have a hard time or cannot communicate, so called "autistic" kids (although this term covers a lot of ground, too), are actually pretty good academically.

The absolute number of special needs kids is very low. At Jewell, we have nine or so in our behavioral program out of almost 750 students, and half of these are bused up from LaPine or Sunriver. There are more in another program, but I'm not sure how many. I'll ask on Monday. At High Desert Middle school there are about 12 out of over 1000 students. Summit High has about a dozen, too.

Typically, kids will spend half the day in special needs classes, and most of the rest in regular classes. The extra staffing is mostly by $12-14/hr EA's, same as for NCLB-related programs. Staff ratio seems to be 2-3 kids per staff member, although often a single kid will be assigned an EA and that EA will work with all the kids, not just the one they are assigned to. Last fall, at Highland Magnet School, I spent a couple of months assigned to help with one kid termed "autistic", and while occasionally I had to totally focus on him, 98% of the time I was just another teacher working with 1/3 or 1/4 of the class at at time along with the certified teacher, another EA, and occasionally a parent helper.

It's a tough world for them. I suppose you could just warehouse them, or force their parents into eventual bankruptcy trying to homecare and homeschool them. They are a burden on society, and many probably will always be. But when we are blowing billions of dollars a month on no-bid contracts in an illegal war, I find it kind of hard to get really worked up about it. In the long run teaching kids to take care of themselves as best they can is likely cheaper in the long run than warehousing them and not teaching them much of anything.

If you want to rail at something, focus on NCLB. We are wasting a hell of a lot more money on that than we are on special needs kids.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And where's Buster? I can't believe I actually miss that nut!

Timmy's had to step into your shoes Buster to ridicule every single line of my posts. And I have to say, he's not nearly as effective in completely crushing my spirit as you are.

Do you need some man-love, baby?

I would've put more of your quotes in here, but you post anonymously so I was reduced to finding your comments by typing 'bruce-pussy' into my browsers search bar.

We love you Buster! ABUSE US! We are unable to smell & offer an unbiased opinion on the putrescence of our collective cuntlery!

bruce said...

I know, he hardly even bitches about my off-topic posts anymore. Did Buster go on vacation or something?

timothy said...

>>Timmy's had to step into your shoes Buster to ridicule every single line of my posts.

Oh yeah. Like I've really been doing that.

And Bruce, people have been noticing the $$$% drain from special needs programs way before NCLB.

The biggest problem is usually in rural schools, where one very needy kid can affect everyone else in the school.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


If you want to rail at something, focus on NCLB.


What bothers me is the ETERNALLY CONFLICTED nature of implementing this sort of crap.

Listen, I have an immediate family member who would definitely would be characterized as "special needs", and "mainstreaming" him would have been catastrophic for EVERYONE. Besides the inane idea that he could possibly learn in the public school environment, he would have been a horrendous burden on the teachers & children, and possibly a physical hazard. Were he my child, I would NOT HAVE DREAMT of putting him in public school. It would have been a nightmare.

But this NIGHTMARE is exactly what we have legislated our schools into becoming. Liberals DESPERATELY want to HOMOGONIZE their children ("He's just like every other kid, DAMMIT!") by hurling them into a completely inappropriate environment that penalizes EVERYONE involved, EVEN THEIR OWN CHILD! It's these selfish ass pricks that I loathe.

They'll "mainstream" their own autistic (hispanic, or whatever) kid if it wrecks the education of 35 other kids, and they'll do it in a heartbeat.

Selfish Californication of our schools.

Why the fuck we are even educating the children of ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS is simply too ludicrous to even talk about.

"Well, your Honor, my client was attempting to rape the victim, and I agree that while attempting to commit the crime, we could have had a case against him. But ultimately, he DID successfully RAPE THE VICTIM, so we must drop all charges & reward him for his trouble by putting his children through school at taxpayer expense, and providing him with food stamps."

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Only in the U.S. will you find that certain of our laws are PUNISHABLE when you succeed in breaking them, and others are completely PARDONED if you succeed in breaking them.

Our legal system needs to be completely dismantled. Socialize medicine? Fuck that, socialize LAW first. It's more of a perverse abomination than Bend RE.

Anonymous said...

Brucey-pussy, nobody bitches about your off topic posts. (did you ever really have on-topic posts? capstone buttplugs? statutory rape? CC Exec sessions? Bush is an idiot? Mormonism? and now NCLB?)

Nobody bitches anymore because you are now mostly ignored. You aren't worth even commenting on, because you are not worth anything.

Except for me, of course. But I am kinda sick that way, cause I find value in all human beings, even if only to criticize their idiotic behavior every week or two.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


It's like the offseason in baseball or reruns on TV.

We're a bunch of spoiled fuckers, we who have been here for a few generations.

Oh yeah. Like I've really been doing that.


Everyone, let's give Tim a hug.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


Except for me, of course. But I am kinda sick that way, cause I find value in all human beings, even if only to criticize their idiotic behavior every week or two.


Oh yea. That's the stuff....

Anonymous said...

Newport Moderns: It really wasn't a story that the Bulletin wanted to cover until the pending sales.

It was a nice misleading story. One of the "pending sales" had actually foreclosed last wednesday - two days before the article came out. The other two are contingent, not pending.

Zero pending.

The one that sold was to the VP of marketing of the mortgage company that was going to foreclose on it - not really a sale to someone to live in it.

Still 0 for 5 in my book.

timothy said...

Yeah, I agree about the funky messy status of the Moderns, but the Bulletin is 100% happy to play up the fact that there are 3 pending signs up right now. That was my point.

How many years until The Plaza has sold (or rented) enough units that The Bulletin can insinuate a silver lining?

bruce said...

Re: Listen, I have an immediate family member who would definitely would be characterized as "special needs", and "mainstreaming" him would have been catastrophic for EVERYONE. Besides the inane idea that he could possibly learn in the public school environment, he would have been a horrendous burden on the teachers & children, and possibly a physical hazard. Were he my child, I would NOT HAVE DREAMT of putting him in public school. It would have been a nightmare.

If he was seriously physically disabled, you have a point. Most of these kids simply are not. They have IEP's, and need extra attention, but I don't see much if anything being taken away from regular kids. Not as much as having a dozen extra EAs tutoring towards specific NCLB testing of a much larger number of kids.

bruce said...

Re: How many years until The Plaza has sold (or rented) enough units that The Bulletin can insinuate a silver lining?

That may never happen...

BTW-What was featured in "What's Going Up" this week?

timothy said...

>>BTW-What was featured in "What's Going Up" this week?

Don't know. Blood pressure?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

>>BTW-What was featured in "What's Going Up" this week?

It was an addition to a law office.

No shit.

Marge said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

...If he was seriously physically disabled, you have a point....

No, he is physically fine.

I don't see much if anything being taken away from regular kids.

Look closer. My kid had to tolerate being in close proximity to a physically violent lunatic whose EA chastised the other kids when she would:

1) Attack other kids physically
2) Even look at her when she let out blood-curdling screams for no reason.

This little maniac had NO BUSINESS being in public schools, much less within punching distance of 35 other kids.

Her mother writes letters to the editor explaining how this attack dog has every right to assault kids in public, or basically do anything she wants, including vandalize property.

She attended public schools for only 2 reasons:

1) An almost obsessively selfish parent
2) Our federal gov't believes it has a mandate to run our lives.

I'm a shame-filled Republican, but I am really an anarchist at heart. But I have many friends who declare themselves to be anarchists, who are really closet liberals who insist at suckling on the Federal gov't teet every chance they get.

If you're an elitist liberal who thinks you know how the fuck to run a government, despite not having the common sense of a fuckin' rock or the experience of a 8 year old virgin, then you gotta love what's happening to this country.

I do not. The U.S. government is about as competent as pack of fuckin' retards trying to hump a doorknob. I don't want them, or any cum sponge liberal trying to teach my kids.

I'm tempted to pull my kids out of the public school system.

Marge said...

40 CommentsClose this window Jump to comment form
Duncan McGeary said...
Where's the bile?

Postscript with your own take, please.

I know you got it in ya.

April 20, 2008 9:38 AM


timothy said...
This landmark post marks a new phase in the blogosphere.

It's like the offseason in baseball or reruns on TV.

April 20, 2008 9:47 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
Great piece on The Soaring Costs of Liberal Guilt in the Bulletin today:

For the medically fragile, no milestone is too small

Unable to speak and in some cases unable to control their bowels or walk without help, they are in public school because of a 1974 federal law that requires schools to educate students with special needs. The class is designed to help students learn what they can, which could be how to use their eyes to communicate or how to hold a spoon. It’s also time for parents and families to escape the demands of their disabled children, whether that means going to the movies or finishing the grocery shopping.

Although it’s an expensive proposition to educate the students, Bend-La Pine Schools Director of Special Programs Patti Craveiro thinks it’s worth it.

“In a humane world, all of our community should be taking care of the young, regardless of the personal resources they have or do not have,” Craveiro said. “In my heart of hearts, I believe that’s the right thing to do.”

For Julie Welbourn, a nurse who has worked with students in the medically fragile unit for nine years, educating these kids is important, even if what they learn is low-level, and it is sometimes frustrating for the teachers.

“I think everyone should have an opportunity to learn whatever they’re able to learn,” she said. “If they get to the point where they can communicate what they need, that’s what we’re working for.”

Each day begins with breakfast, which can take some time. None of the children is fully capable of eating without some help. Some must be spoon-fed, others can handle the implements with a bit of help. Many days, a nurse will ask Nimsi Marquez, 8, to pick between juice and oatmeal, while an education assistant tries to keep Mathew from scooting his chair away from the table, his way of showing he’s not hungry. It’s a long process....

Unable to speak and in some cases unable to control their bowels or walk without help, they are in public school because of a 1974 federal law that requires schools to educate students with special needs. The class is designed to help students learn what they can, which could be how to use their eyes to communicate or how to hold a spoon. It’s also time for parents and families to escape the demands of their disabled children, whether that means going to the movies or finishing the grocery shopping.

Although it’s an expensive proposition to educate the students, Bend-La Pine Schools Director of Special Programs Patti Craveiro thinks it’s worth it.

“In a humane world, all of our community should be taking care of the young, regardless of the personal resources they have or do not have,” Craveiro said. “In my heart of hearts, I believe that’s the right thing to do.”

For Julie Welbourn, a nurse who has worked with students in the medically fragile unit for nine years, educating these kids is important, even if what they learn is low-level, and it is sometimes frustrating for the teachers.

“I think everyone should have an opportunity to learn whatever they’re able to learn,” she said. “If they get to the point where they can communicate what they need, that’s what we’re working for.”

Each day begins with breakfast, which can take some time. None of the children is fully capable of eating without some help. Some must be spoon-fed, others can handle the implements with a bit of help. Many days, a nurse will ask Nimsi Marquez, 8, to pick between juice and oatmeal, while an education assistant tries to keep Mathew from scooting his chair away from the table, his way of showing he’s not hungry. It’s a long process.

“One of the biggest challenges for me personally is you work on a goal for so long to see a small amount of progress,” Welbourn said. “You can be doing the same goal for days, but it’s like you see a piece of life in their eyes, and it makes it worthwhile.”

Sherpa said much of the work done in the medically fragile unit is for the benefit of the families.

“A lot of it is respite care,” Sherpa said, “to be able to send them to school and have it be a safe situation, where they’re learning and stimulated, and in a different way than at home.”

Craveiro, the special programs director, said it’s even more than that.

“I think parents of the severely disabled bear a special burden that society needs to share,” she said. “No one would choose this. But there but for the grace of God goes any of us.”

The twins’ parents, Scott and Ruth Boehmer, understand that. They said it’s helpful to have some time to get things done each day.

Ruth, a stay-at-home mom, said getting shopping done is much simpler without the boys.

“We can get things around the house done,” Scott said. “Just all-around, everyday life things.”

Once physical therapy is complete, students often go into assigned general education classrooms for story time or another event like music class.

“When I was a kid, it was like, ‘Don’t look at them,’” Sherpa said. “It’s good for other kids in the school to see kids like this.”

And the normal students get to learn all about their disabled classmates.

One day, Welbourn brought Elliana into Kellie Kathman’s class. When she wheeled in, the rest of the students cheered.

“Ellie!”

They offered her compliments on the plush bunny she’d brought with her to class. Then Kathman started reading a book about a sleepy pig, and students took turns passing the book to Elliana so she could touch the fuzzy illustrations.

When her shoe fell off, Welbourn was ready.

“Oh no!” she said, laughing. “Cinderella.”

Throughout the story, Elliana wiggled her arms and legs. When it was time to leave, the students all said goodbye, and Ellie moved an arm up, as if waving to them.

The students have to eat lunch, then spend the rest of the day busy, working on the computer or with other learning implements. Some return to their classrooms. On a recent day, Nimsi sat at the computer watching photos of her family flash across the screen, while Danny sat on a mat and held a musical toy to his ear. Another day, Welbourn placed Elliana on a padded table and removed her back brace to stretch her arms, and rub her jaw and neck.

At the end of the day, the Boehmers pick the twins up from school, and the rest are wheeled to the waiting school bus. Welbourn and co-workers communicate on a daily basis with parents by writing in logs that they send home with students.

Their schoolwork isn’t complex. But for these students, it may mean the world.

“I like to think they’re happy,” Welbourn said. “It gives them an opportunity to be around other kids their own age, it lets them do what they’re capable of doing. If there’s something in there, and we can help with it, it’s all worthwhile.”

Love it. Public schools are about as appropriate for teaching these kids as a library is for teaching soccer.

They've even worked Cinderella, hero-fantasies & other liberal BS and indoctrinated it into these kids heads.

Do these kids deserve some sort of education? Hell yes! But this "mainstreaming" is possibly The Stupidest, Most Expensive execution conceivable. The "mainstreaming" is done because the parents refusal to accept reality that Their Kids Are Different, and cramming them shoulder with "normal" kids ain't gonna "rub off".

It's TOO FUCKING BAD that your kid hasn't fulfilled your pie-in-the-sky liberal fantasies, BUT FUCKING UP THE EDUCATION OF 35 OTHER KIDS IS FUCKING SELFISH & ABOMINABLE.

Even the babysitting function of the school & by extension The Federal Government is exposed for what it is. These kids have become an INCONVENIENCE for their parents & as such are abandoned to the school system, a COMPLETELY INAPPROPRIATE venue.

This deranged fucking system costs taxpayers MILLIONS, and it is solely due to PATHETIC SELFISH PARENTS & LIBERAL GUILT.

Bend-LaPine is overrun with Hispanic kids who CANNOT speak English, are not being taught English, who cannot communicate with the teacher, but their parents are working at some shithole job ILLEGALLY to make minimum wage... WHY?

WTF!

April 20, 2008 9:56 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
Where's the bile?

Postscript with your own take, please.

See above.

April 20, 2008 9:57 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
Is it a coincidence this person's name is Sherpa?

Sherpa: Someone who shepherds along some lazy fucker who is too wimpy to do the work themselves.

Thank God these lazy ass parents have a Sherpa in the local school system to do the hard work that they won't.

April 20, 2008 10:09 AM


timothy said...
This 1974 law attracts money like darkness attracts a grue.

Public policy is all about trade-offs. Doing stuff in an absolute manner is just a good way to use up 10 times as much money as reasonable people might make thinking practically and locally.

Please, provide those overburdened parents some help. Provide those poor kids some appropriate stimulus. Teach mainstream kids some compassion.

But seperate it from learning. Don't complain that our schools are not churning out world-competitive students without asking why education money has been diverted to such a degree.

Paul, I'm with you on this one. But I'm against you on the Hispanic issue. Yes, I want the system fixed so only legals are here. But if a Hispanic kid is here, we need to teach him or her. It's in our best interests. There is nothing wrong with Hispanic kids. They learn just fine.

April 20, 2008 10:13 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
Doing stuff in an absolute manner is just a good way to use up 10 times as much money as reasonable people might make thinking practically and locally.

This is what NO CHILD LEFT BEHIND is. This legislation has so many unintended consequences (?) it's not even funny. It's primary side effect is to slow down the rate of teaching progress to the SLOWEST KID IN CLASS.

"Mainstreaming" luckily slows things down to the sleeping point. My kids come home with spelling words & math problems that they could do in kindergarten (3-4 years ago). Public schools are an economic & educational abomination.

When kids ARE different, we insist that they paradoxically be MAINSTREAMED, but also get an enormous amount of SPECIAL TREATMENT. Typical of liberal doctrine, what they believe is COMPLETELY INTERNALLY INCONSISTENT & IMPOSSIBLE IN ITS EXECUTION.

"I want my kid to be with other kids, but I also want him to receive an inordinate amount of attention, money, and resources that is not available to other kids."

But I'm against you on the Hispanic issue. Yes, I want the system fixed so only legals are here.

Solution: Abolish the U.S. Merge with Mexico.

OK, Brucey... don't you think we should AT LEAST teach these kids English FIRST? We're NOT EVEN DOING THAT. We're allowing this ILLEGAL DUMPING of kids, and NO ONE has the slightest intention of teaching them ANYTHING.

April 20, 2008 10:29 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
Sorry Timmy... I addressed that to Brucey out of reflex.

I was elected to lead, not to read!"

McBain

April 20, 2008 10:31 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
And what's stupid is that "mainstreaming" has produced Yet Another Level Of Stratifying Kids By Intelligence. To wit, the TAG program. This program pulls kids out of "mainstream" classes, and puts them in classes that are actually closer to where ALL NORMAL KIDS should be.

And what's GREAT is while AUTISTIC kids are mainstreamed at HORRENDOUS COSTS, the TAG program has to justify it's existence at ZERO ADDITIONAL COSTS or it will be terminated.

But we've dumbed it down to the COMA POINT, and luckily while QUALITY HAS IMPLODED, COSTS HAS EXPLODED. Thank God for LIBERAL BULLSHIT STUPIDITY.

April 20, 2008 10:38 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
California home prices plummet 26 percent amid foreclosures

A glut of foreclosed homes helped prompt a 26 percent plunge in California home prices in March, spotlighting a trend that experts said is likely to keep squeezing the struggling market for at least several more months.

More than 38 percent of California homes sold in March had been foreclosed at some point during the previous year, DataQuick Information Systems said in its survey released Thursday.

That helped drive the state's median home price down to $358,000, from $484,000 in March 2007, when the market peaked, DataQuick said.

In addition, the number of new and resale houses and condos sold last month plummeted 38.3 percent from a year earlier to 24,565.

"When you look at areas with high foreclosure rates, the foreclosures sort of establish the value of the market," said Russ Valone, president of MarketPointe Realty Advisors, a research firm in San Diego.

Prices in California, once among the nation's hottest housing markets, could bottom out in summer or fall, around the same time foreclosures peak and lenders further loosen credit standards, DataQuick analyst John Karevoll said.

"Lots of activity is on hold because the mortgage spigot turned off," Karevoll said. "Between now and fall, we'll see more mortgage lending. Lots of these sales that haven't happened will happen."

Meanwhile, even more foreclosed homes are likely to go on the market as low, introductory interest rates expire and people struggle to make house payments, said Rick Sharga, vice president of marketing at RealtyTrac, a research firm.

Figures for previous years were not immediately available, but Karevoll said the March percentage for foreclosed home sales was believed to be an all-time high for California.

Foreclosed homes in the state sell for about 15 percent less than non-foreclosed homes in the same neighborhoods, bringing all prices down, he said.

Riverside and San Bernardino counties — a rapidly growing region known as the Inland Empire — were particularly hard hit. Foreclosures accounted for 56 percent of the sales last month in Riverside County, where the median price of a home fell 27 percent to $306,250.

The nationwide foreclosure glut is expected to worsen in May and June as two- and three-year introductory interest rates expire on homes purchased in 2005 and 2006, Sharga said.

Further souring of the economy could make it even tougher for people who lose jobs to cover mortgage payments, Karevoll said.

"If we do have a recession in California, things will get bloody out there," he said.

The foreclosure glut has hit California especially hard. The state ranks only behind Nevada — and just ahead of Florida, Arizona and Colorado — in the percentage of households in foreclosure, according to RealtyTrac's March rankings.

California and Arizona are victims of an overheated market in the early part of the decade, when banks lent money for homes that buyers could not afford, said Sharga. Nevada and Florida had lots of speculative buyers.

Los Angeles Neighborhood Housing Services, a nonprofit group, is counseling about 2,000 financially troubled homeowners a month, up from about 200 a month at this time last year, said Lori Gay, chief executive officer.

The group developed a "triage system" to accommodate the flood of people seeking to avoid foreclosure, Gay said. Previously, the organization worked with people over three or four months, often in classrooms. Now it asks people to tackle questions online and aims to give them quick answers.

"We're expediting in a way that we wouldn't have to before," Gay said. "Now there's not a lot of time. They're up against the wall."

The affordability of foreclosed homes has helped some buyers.

Cyndie Schubert, 52, who earns $16.94 an hour as a parking garage attendant, said she bought a San Diego home out of foreclosure for $250,000 after two years of looking for places that were out of her reach.

"I walk to work, I have my white picket fence," said Schubert, who lives with her 25-year-old daughter. "It's got a little yard but that's all right."

Her mortgage payment of $1,104 eats up much of her first monthly paycheck, but it's only $300 more than what she was paying to rent an apartment in a crime-ridden neighborhood where she was raised in suburban El Cajon.

She pays her other bills with her second monthly paycheck.

"I got caught up on my bills, and it was time for me to do something," Schubert said.

April 20, 2008 10:45 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
Vacant Homes in U.K. Prove Speculator Nightmare as Losses Mount

By Simon Packard

April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Richard Lee spent 5.3 million pounds ($10 million) buying 20 rental homes across the U.K. with just 150,000 pounds of his own money. Today, the properties are worth about 60 percent less and owned by the banks that financed the purchases.

Lee was one of thousands enticed by one of Europe's top five best-performing residential property markets during the past decade. Now repossessions are mounting and properties stand empty as many investors fail to find the tenants needed to cover their mortgages after a building boom flooded cities, especially Leeds and Manchester, with apartments.

The unraveling buy-to-rent investment market contributed to a 2.5 percent drop in home prices last month, the biggest since 1992, a report by mortgage lender HBOS Plc shows. Britain is among the countries most likely to follow the U.S. into a housing slump, according to the International Monetary Fund. Prices may drop 10 percent this year and next, said Michael Saunders, a London-based economist at Citigroup Inc.

``Buy-to-let investment was a bubble inside the housing market bubble,'' Saunders said. ``It's turning out worse than I thought.''

Home purchases by investors such as Lee helped triple housing prices between 1997 and 2007. The buy-to-rent market in the U.K. increased 19-fold to about 190 billion pounds in the same period, according to London-based broker Savills Plc.

Tax Incentive

Banks started promoting buy-to-let mortgages in the mid- 1990s, after the government ended rent controls and introduced fixed-term leases to ensure that tenants vacated properties. Interest payments on the loans are tax-deductible, making them attractive for landlords.

Rental properties generated annual investment returns of about 22 percent in the five years ended March 31, according to the Association of Residential Letting Agents in Warwick, England. The U.K. FTSE All-Share Index climbed about 12 percent, including reinvested dividends.

The ``virtuous circle'' of rental investment that powered the U.K. housing market was broken by falling property values and banks' retrenchment following record mortgage-related losses, Saunders said. Banks and securities firms have disclosed about $245 billion of asset writedowns and credit losses since the beginning of 2007.

The number of available buy-to-let mortgages dwindled to 926 in the first week of April from 3,362 at the start of August 2007, according to personal finance Web site Moneyfacts. Average two- year fixed-rate mortgage rates have climbed to 6.5 percent, or 1.5 percentage points more than the gross rental yield from a property in the first quarter.

Vulnerable Investors

Investors such as Lee, who have high levels of debt, and homebuilders that focused on developments in the center of English cities such as Leeds and Manchester are now the most vulnerable to the deflating buy-to-let market.

Buy-to-let investors who were behind on their mortgages by three months or more increased by 25 percent to 7,584 in the fourth quarter, according to the London-based Council of Mortgage Lenders. Repossessions rose 26 percent to 1,247.

Connells Asset Management in Leighton Buzzard, England, which sold more than 10,000 repossessed homes last year, expects the number of foreclosures to rise from the 20 percent gain already reported, led by cities in the northern part of the country.

High-Rise Condos

The skyline of central Leeds is dominated by construction cranes erecting high-rise condominiums, 60 percent of which were sold before completion to buy-to-let investors, according to London-based real estate broker CB Richard Ellis Hamptons International.

``Leeds is where we are seeing more city-center apartments coming onto our books,'' said Managing Director Mike Pudney.

Thousands more apartments are being built in the center of the city, where two-bedroom homes lost 12 percent of their value in the past two years, according to London-based research firm Hometrack Ltd. Brokers report average rents for these properties have dropped by about 20 percent and about 13 percent of city- center apartments are empty, according to Leeds City Council estimates, based on local tax returns.

``Twelve months ago, development was an easy way to make your fortune,'' said Tom Bloxham, chairman of Manchester-based Urban Splash, which develops derelict sites. ``Today, it's a disaster zone.''

`Mini-Floridas'

City center condominium developments like what's happening in Leeds represent Britain's ``mini-Floridas,'' said Alastair Stewart, who tracks homebuilders at Dresdner Kleinwort Securities in London. The state of Florida had the third-highest foreclosure rate in the U.S. in March, with one foreclosure for every 282 households, according to RealtyTrac Inc., the Irvine, California- based seller of data on mortgage defaults.

In Leeds, the market got so bad that a unit of Taylor Wimpey Plc, the U.K.'s largest homebuilder, delayed the planned 800-unit Green Bank condominium project in November. It may seek a zoning change to allow a mixed development of offices, shops and apartments. Taylor Wimpey dropped 40 percent in the past six months in London trading on concern about the collapse of the buy- to-let market and the slide in land values and home prices.

Barratt Developments Plc, Bellway Plc, Bovis Homes Group Plc, Berkeley Group Holdings Plc, Persimmon Plc and Redrow Plc declined by 16 percent to 48 percent in the same period.

Investment Clubs

Newly built apartments accounted for a ``significant part'' of the investments made by 61 percent of new buy-to-let investors over the past six years, Savills reported. Many of those purchases were brokered by the dozens of Internet-based property investment clubs that sprang up since 2000.

The clubs often attracted novice buyers, some of whom lacked ``an understanding of the risks that such investments pose,'' according to U.K. regulators at the Financial Services Authority. In May 2005, the government forced two of the clubs into liquidation to protect investors.

For a fee, the clubs offer members residential developments before construction work begins. They negotiate a price with homebuilders that is below the valuation made by an appraiser, and collect a percentage of the purchase price as a fee. The clubs also offer their dues-paying members property management, home insurance, legal and mortgage-broking services.

City Gate 2

Lee, 37, bought an apartment in the City Gate 2 development in Manchester for 239,500 pounds in October 2005. An identical property in the same building sold for 115,000 pounds earlier this year, said Lee, who has surrendered his keys to the bank.

Lee also purchased 17 properties, most of them in Leeds, in late 2005. He said he expected to earn a steady income from renting to students.

After the transactions were completed, Lee said he realized he had overpaid for the properties. He said 15 hadn't been refurbished as promised, the tenants occupying the homes had left and rental-income projections were wildly optimistic.

``The valuations were 15 years ahead of their time,'' Lee said. ``The biggest genius in the world couldn't have got those loans to work.''

Lee estimates his properties are worth about 3 million pounds less than he paid for them. The banks will probably ask Lee to repay the money when the homes, now in their possession, are sold. He doesn't have the money, he said.

Legal Action

Lee and 85 other investors plan to sue the developers, lenders, appraisers and solicitors involved in their property transactions. Lee's attorney, Hammad Ahmad of Max Gold Partnership in Hull, England, said the lawsuit will probably be filed in about two months.

Regulators and the government are beginning to review the practices and excesses of the U.K.'s housing boom. The FSA said in its 2008 report on financial risks that ``organized property fraud is most common in new-build and purpose-built flats in major towns and cities, and where renting is the main form of tenure.''

The FSA is probing more than 200 cases of suspected mortgage fraud and the City of London Police department is recruiting for its economic crime department to investigate fraud nationally.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling last week appointed James Crosby, former chief executive officer of HBOS, to make recommendations on improving the U.K.'s mortgage market.

Tony McKay, chief operating officer of Instant Access Group, the country's largest property investment club, said it's time the U.K. started regulating companies such as his.

``It's really strange,'' he said in an interview. ``A pension-provider is regulated for taking in just 20 pounds a month.''

Many homeowners and tenants have profited from the buy-to-let boom, said Michael Ball, professor of urban and property economics at Reading University, 35 miles west of London. And even as home prices decline, most investors will hold onto their properties, according to a Savills survey.

Once he has dug himself out of his current financial difficulties, Lee will consider getting back into the business.

``Would I do buy-to-let again?'' he said. ``Without a shadow of a doubt. This time I'll ensure I'm in control of all the levers.''

April 20, 2008 10:47 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
City of London Police department is recruiting for its economic crime department...

Looks like we're close to anarchy & civil war in this Post-Bubble Apocalypse...

April 20, 2008 10:49 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000%5C298.pdf

April 20, 2008 10:52 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
``The valuations were 15 years ahead of their time,'' Lee said. ``The biggest genius in the world couldn't have got those loans to work.''

Lee estimates his properties are worth about 3 million pounds less than he paid for them. The banks will probably ask Lee to repay the money when the homes, now in their possession, are sold. He doesn't have the money, he said.

Legal Action

Lee and 85 other investors plan to sue the developers, lenders, appraisers and solicitors involved in their property transactions. Lee's attorney, Hammad Ahmad of Max Gold Partnership in Hull, England, said the lawsuit will probably be filed in about two months.

Good to see that the U.S. is not the only country filled to the brim with lawsuit-happy deranged lunatics who refuse to take responsibility for their actions.

I LOVE this VICTIM-MENTALITY that has overrun this planet. Feels like something akin to the Black Plague will be necessary to cleanse the planet of humanities increasing need to blame others for their own genetic programming to self-destruct.

Jeebus, please KILL THESE STUPID FUCKERS.

April 20, 2008 11:01 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
This landmark post marks a new phase in the blogosphere.

It's like the offseason in baseball or reruns on TV.

Sometimes, wouldn't you rather watch an old re-run of McMillan & Wife than some crappy new reality show?

April 20, 2008 11:18 AM


LavaBear said...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XoF2DLBO1Vo

April 20, 2008 11:37 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
I have 3 questions:

1) WHY IS IT A WHITE OUT BLIZZARD IN BEND ON APRIL 20 WHEN IT'S SUPPOSED TO BE 65 DEGREES OUT?

2) Why!

3) WHY!

April 20, 2008 12:02 PM


timothy said...
>>don't you think we should AT LEAST teach these kids English FIRST?

No. I don't think all math and science learning should stop while the kid learns English.

Hispanic kids that grow up here will learn English easily. Their kids won't even understand the Spanish-speaking grandparents. There is no evidence that the Hispanics are learning English at a slower rate than previous waves of immigrants. It just seems that way because that's what we're surrounded by at the moment.

But back to the other problem. Ever since the Civil War, the Federal Gov't has held sway over the states, and pressed its power more and more. The trend is unmistakable. All it takes is the country seeing a bad situation somewhere and an oppressive Federal solution is created.

April 20, 2008 12:03 PM


timothy said...
>>3) WHY!

Dude. Global cooling.

April 20, 2008 12:04 PM


Anonymous said...
"But if a Hispanic kid is here, we need to teach him or her. It's in our best interests. There is nothing wrong with Hispanic kids. They learn just fine."
+++

And also:
">>don't you think we should AT LEAST teach these kids English FIRST?

No. I don't think all math and science learning should stop while the kid learns English.

Hispanic kids that grow up here will learn English easily."

+++

Okay, I hear the bit about teaching the local Hispanic (some illegal, some born here, thus legal) kids.

But the way to teach 'em is via English. In Woodburn, they try and teach the Hispanics in Spanish. I think they even try teaching them English classes in Spanish. They (Woodburn School District) brags about being able to teach a Hispanic student through all high school without speaking in English. Imagine that!! A high school graduate who still can't speak or understand a lick of English!! How many jobs do you think that student would be qualified for in the Woodburn area?

That is wrong. Hispanic students need to be totally immersed in English. Want to learn in America? Then learn everything in English. Math in English, History in English, Biology in English, etc...

The excuse that Woodburn SD gives is that it is hard to be immersed in English. So what? Life is tough. Deal with it. No pain no gain. I did it in a foreign country; so can they, and be beeter for it.

April 20, 2008 12:24 PM


Anonymous said...
... are you really that much more 'beeter' for it?

April 20, 2008 12:42 PM


timothy said...
What do we hear from the Bulletin about the Newport moderns?

Nothing. Nothing. Nothing.

Nothing.

Then finally, we get the story. But not until AFTER one has sold and 3 are pending.

So it's still pitched as a bit of a success story. Whew, they finally sold. Sure, half-off, and the builder and banks LOST money. But it's not part of the gaping chasm of inventory any longer. Maybe now things are moving since prices are falling. All we need to do is clear it all out and we're good. We'll be back at 30% annual appreciation any time now.

It really wasn't a story that the Bulletin wanted to cover until the pending sales.

April 20, 2008 12:44 PM


timothy said...
I think Hispanics not learning English is mostly a myth. Or there are a few cases or a few places where it's true and people ignore the huge numbers of Hispanics learning English.

"Hispanics by a large margin believe that immigrants have to speak English to be a part of American society and even more so that English should be taught to the children of immigrants, according to recent surveys conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center."

7/8 of Hispanics born here say they speak English fluently. Yes, the 1 out of 8 is bothersome. But I bet their kids will speak fluently. Just doesn't bother me.

The real problem is the size of this immigration, not whether we educate them in English or Spanish.

My grandfather escaped Austria and was immersed in English. He always felt sad for the couple of years in school where he didn't know what the hell was going on. Yes, he learned English, but he felt shortchanged on the math he lost, as it directly applied to the work he ended up doing.

Mostly, I think we should admire those kids who are speaking and getting along in two languages. We're a bunch of spoiled fuckers, we who have been here for a few generations.

April 20, 2008 12:54 PM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
It really wasn't a story that the Bulletin wanted to cover until the pending sales.

That applies to just about EVERY Bend RE story extant. I was very surprised they ran such a thing at all.

You're right, they waited until SILVER LINING time... but the guts of this story was about The Cloud. I think they've figured out that Head-In-Sand strategy og ignoring of this, The Single Most Important Story In The History Of Bend, undermines their credibility.

Plus The Absence of Bulletin backbone in editorial independence dictates that negative RE stories are no longer as taboo as they were a year ago, when everyone here was still on the fence regarding Bend escaping the National Calamity. A year ago, EVERY SINGLE STORY WAS AMBIVALENT, full of RE experts (Realtors) who were predicting that Bend would avert disaster. Now, at least that has ebbed somewhat...

April 20, 2008 1:02 PM


bruce said...
Re: OK, Brucey... don't you think we should AT LEAST teach these kids English FIRST? We're NOT EVEN DOING THAT. We're allowing this ILLEGAL DUMPING of kids, and NO ONE has the slightest intention of teaching them ANYTHING.

Most of the kids I've seen (I've been at RE Jewell of late, with a large percentage, maybe up to a 25% in some grades, of Hispanic students) understand English quite well, although some have trouble. They go into the NCLB tutoring progam with all the white kids that need extra tutoring.

Re: "Mainstreaming" luckily slows things down to the sleeping point. My kids come home with spelling words & math problems that they could do in kindergarten (3-4 years ago). Public schools are an economic & educational abomination.

No, mainstreaming isn't the cause for that--NCLB is. This law forces schools to teach to specific testing or risk losing funding. For smart kids, this level is pretty low. Mainstreaming has absolutely nothing to do with dumbing down classwork for regular students.

The biggest issue I've seen with special needs kids is the extremely wide range of physical and mental abilities. Mainstreaming does most of them a lot of good, and they will be much less of a burden on society after they know how to count, cook, tell time, behave in socially acceptable ways, control their anger, etc.

Note that many of the special needs kids have behavioral issues, as all the ones I've been working with of late. Most of them have had a pretty sad life. As one of them put it the other day when I asked why he never had his daily progress report signed as is required to be on "green", "My Dad doesn't care and my Mom sleeps all day long."

Another with a single mother just lost their home and had to move into a motel a month ago. Another was recently reclaimed by his biological mother at age nine after being raised by his stepmother since his first year of age, who then promptly decided he didn't need his meds. This little guy simply cannot sit still without his meds. Luckily his mom soon realized that yes, perhaps he better stay on them. He is above his grade level in math.

Some of the ones I've run into that have a hard time or cannot communicate, so called "autistic" kids (although this term covers a lot of ground, too), are actually pretty good academically.

The absolute number of special needs kids is very low. At Jewell, we have nine or so in our behavioral program out of almost 750 students, and half of these are bused up from LaPine or Sunriver. There are more in another program, but I'm not sure how many. I'll ask on Monday. At High Desert Middle school there are about 12 out of over 1000 students. Summit High has about a dozen, too.

Typically, kids will spend half the day in special needs classes, and most of the rest in regular classes. The extra staffing is mostly by $12-14/hr EA's, same as for NCLB-related programs. Staff ratio seems to be 2-3 kids per staff member, although often a single kid will be assigned an EA and that EA will work with all the kids, not just the one they are assigned to. Last fall, at Highland Magnet School, I spent a couple of months assigned to help with one kid termed "autistic", and while occasionally I had to totally focus on him, 98% of the time I was just another teacher working with 1/3 or 1/4 of the class at at time along with the certified teacher, another EA, and occasionally a parent helper.

It's a tough world for them. I suppose you could just warehouse them, or force their parents into eventual bankruptcy trying to homecare and homeschool them. They are a burden on society, and many probably will always be. But when we are blowing billions of dollars a month on no-bid contracts in an illegal war, I find it kind of hard to get really worked up about it. In the long run teaching kids to take care of themselves as best they can is likely cheaper in the long run than warehousing them and not teaching them much of anything.

If you want to rail at something, focus on NCLB. We are wasting a hell of a lot more money on that than we are on special needs kids.

April 20, 2008 1:04 PM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
And where's Buster? I can't believe I actually miss that nut!

Timmy's had to step into your shoes Buster to ridicule every single line of my posts. And I have to say, he's not nearly as effective in completely crushing my spirit as you are.

Do you need some man-love, baby?

I would've put more of your quotes in here, but you post anonymously so I was reduced to finding your comments by typing 'bruce-pussy' into my browsers search bar.

We love you Buster! ABUSE US! We are unable to smell & offer an unbiased opinion on the putrescence of our collective cuntlery!

April 20, 2008 1:12 PM


bruce said...
I know, he hardly even bitches about my off-topic posts anymore. Did Buster go on vacation or something?

April 20, 2008 1:15 PM


timothy said...
>>Timmy's had to step into your shoes Buster to ridicule every single line of my posts.

Oh yeah. Like I've really been doing that.

And Bruce, people have been noticing the $$$% drain from special needs programs way before NCLB.

The biggest problem is usually in rural schools, where one very needy kid can affect everyone else in the school.

April 20, 2008 1:27 PM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

If you want to rail at something, focus on NCLB.

What bothers me is the ETERNALLY CONFLICTED nature of implementing this sort of crap.

Listen, I have an immediate family member who would definitely would be characterized as "special needs", and "mainstreaming" him would have been catastrophic for EVERYONE. Besides the inane idea that he could possibly learn in the public school environment, he would have been a horrendous burden on the teachers & children, and possibly a physical hazard. Were he my child, I would NOT HAVE DREAMT of putting him in public school. It would have been a nightmare.

But this NIGHTMARE is exactly what we have legislated our schools into becoming. Liberals DESPERATELY want to HOMOGONIZE their children ("He's just like every other kid, DAMMIT!") by hurling them into a completely inappropriate environment that penalizes EVERYONE involved, EVEN THEIR OWN CHILD! It's these selfish ass pricks that I loathe.

They'll "mainstream" their own autistic (hispanic, or whatever) kid if it wrecks the education of 35 other kids, and they'll do it in a heartbeat.

Selfish Californication of our schools.

Why the fuck we are even educating the children of ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS is simply too ludicrous to even talk about.

"Well, your Honor, my client was attempting to rape the victim, and I agree that while attempting to commit the crime, we could have had a case against him. But ultimately, he DID successfully RAPE THE VICTIM, so we must drop all charges & reward him for his trouble by putting his children through school at taxpayer expense, and providing him with food stamps."

April 20, 2008 1:27 PM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
Only in the U.S. will you find that certain of our laws are PUNISHABLE when you succeed in breaking them, and others are completely PARDONED if you succeed in breaking them.

Our legal system needs to be completely dismantled. Socialize medicine? Fuck that, socialize LAW first. It's more of a perverse abomination than Bend RE.

April 20, 2008 1:31 PM


Anonymous said...
Brucey-pussy, nobody bitches about your off topic posts. (did you ever really have on-topic posts? capstone buttplugs? statutory rape? CC Exec sessions? Bush is an idiot? Mormonism? and now NCLB?)

Nobody bitches anymore because you are now mostly ignored. You aren't worth even commenting on, because you are not worth anything.

Except for me, of course. But I am kinda sick that way, cause I find value in all human beings, even if only to criticize their idiotic behavior every week or two.

April 20, 2008 1:31 PM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

It's like the offseason in baseball or reruns on TV.

We're a bunch of spoiled fuckers, we who have been here for a few generations.

Oh yeah. Like I've really been doing that.

Everyone, let's give Tim a hug.

April 20, 2008 1:32 PM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Except for me, of course. But I am kinda sick that way, cause I find value in all human beings, even if only to criticize their idiotic behavior every week or two.

Oh yea. That's the stuff....

April 20, 2008 1:33 PM


Anonymous said...
Newport Moderns: It really wasn't a story that the Bulletin wanted to cover until the pending sales.

It was a nice misleading story. One of the "pending sales" had actually foreclosed last wednesday - two days before the article came out. The other two are contingent, not pending.

Zero pending.

The one that sold was to the VP of marketing of the mortgage company that was going to foreclose on it - not really a sale to someone to live in it.

Still 0 for 5 in my book.

April 20, 2008 1:58 PM


timothy said...
Yeah, I agree about the funky messy status of the Moderns, but the Bulletin is 100% happy to play up the fact that there are 3 pending signs up right now. That was my point.

How many years until The Plaza has sold (or rented) enough units that The Bulletin can insinuate a silver lining?

April 20, 2008 2:07 PM


bruce said...
Re: Listen, I have an immediate family member who would definitely would be characterized as "special needs", and "mainstreaming" him would have been catastrophic for EVERYONE. Besides the inane idea that he could possibly learn in the public school environment, he would have been a horrendous burden on the teachers & children, and possibly a physical hazard. Were he my child, I would NOT HAVE DREAMT of putting him in public school. It would have been a nightmare.

If he was seriously physically disabled, you have a point. Most of these kids simply are not. They have IEP's, and need extra attention, but I don't see much if anything being taken away from regular kids. Not as much as having a dozen extra EAs tutoring towards specific NCLB testing of a much larger number of kids.

April 20, 2008 2:31 PM


bruce said...
Re: How many years until The Plaza has sold (or rented) enough units that The Bulletin can insinuate a silver lining?

That may never happen...

BTW-What was featured in "What's Going Up" this week?

April 20, 2008 2:33 PM


timothy said...
>>BTW-What was featured in "What's Going Up" this week?

Don't know. Blood pressure?

April 20, 2008 3:58 PM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
>>BTW-What was featured in "What's Going Up" this week?

It was an addition to a law office.

No shit.

April 20, 2008 5:18 PM


Marge said...
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We are almost out of Bend RE stuff to talk about, unless rehashing over and over counts. I still think there is more bad to come with super low April sales and foreclosures beating sales.
It's still fucking snowing!!! Today should send more Cali's south.
Went to the Farmer's Market out at Pine Mtn. Ranch..cold but I bet it will be fun with some warmer weather. Yaks and Buffalo, fresh vegis', all sorts of organic stuff. Even pony rides and dog agility stuff. I really wanted the pony ride :)


Jeebus, please KILL THESE STUPID FUCKERS.

Just kill all the stupid fuckers. Including all of the presidential hopefuls. We haven't a chance with any of them. We are so screwed with the Fed blowouts and the lack of overvision of them we are going to be totally busted next year.
1981 here we come.
Deer in the yard is free food. If you fish, now you can only keep 5 Kokanee (starve) at Billy Chinook. This years growing season is already screwed, since it's still snowing.
Greenhouse, greenhouse, greenhouse, but don't let the gases out you might melt a glacier.


Blah blah, blah.

Rant...what rant

Sane....insane.

Marge said...

40 CommentsClose this window Jump to comment form
Duncan McGeary said...
Where's the bile?

Postscript with your own take, please.

I know you got it in ya.

April 20, 2008 9:38 AM


timothy said...
This landmark post marks a new phase in the blogosphere.

It's like the offseason in baseball or reruns on TV.

April 20, 2008 9:47 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
Great piece on The Soaring Costs of Liberal Guilt in the Bulletin today:

For the medically fragile, no milestone is too small

Unable to speak and in some cases unable to control their bowels or walk without help, they are in public school because of a 1974 federal law that requires schools to educate students with special needs. The class is designed to help students learn what they can, which could be how to use their eyes to communicate or how to hold a spoon. It’s also time for parents and families to escape the demands of their disabled children, whether that means going to the movies or finishing the grocery shopping.

Although it’s an expensive proposition to educate the students, Bend-La Pine Schools Director of Special Programs Patti Craveiro thinks it’s worth it.

“In a humane world, all of our community should be taking care of the young, regardless of the personal resources they have or do not have,” Craveiro said. “In my heart of hearts, I believe that’s the right thing to do.”

For Julie Welbourn, a nurse who has worked with students in the medically fragile unit for nine years, educating these kids is important, even if what they learn is low-level, and it is sometimes frustrating for the teachers.

“I think everyone should have an opportunity to learn whatever they’re able to learn,” she said. “If they get to the point where they can communicate what they need, that’s what we’re working for.”

Each day begins with breakfast, which can take some time. None of the children is fully capable of eating without some help. Some must be spoon-fed, others can handle the implements with a bit of help. Many days, a nurse will ask Nimsi Marquez, 8, to pick between juice and oatmeal, while an education assistant tries to keep Mathew from scooting his chair away from the table, his way of showing he’s not hungry. It’s a long process....

Unable to speak and in some cases unable to control their bowels or walk without help, they are in public school because of a 1974 federal law that requires schools to educate students with special needs. The class is designed to help students learn what they can, which could be how to use their eyes to communicate or how to hold a spoon. It’s also time for parents and families to escape the demands of their disabled children, whether that means going to the movies or finishing the grocery shopping.

Although it’s an expensive proposition to educate the students, Bend-La Pine Schools Director of Special Programs Patti Craveiro thinks it’s worth it.

“In a humane world, all of our community should be taking care of the young, regardless of the personal resources they have or do not have,” Craveiro said. “In my heart of hearts, I believe that’s the right thing to do.”

For Julie Welbourn, a nurse who has worked with students in the medically fragile unit for nine years, educating these kids is important, even if what they learn is low-level, and it is sometimes frustrating for the teachers.

“I think everyone should have an opportunity to learn whatever they’re able to learn,” she said. “If they get to the point where they can communicate what they need, that’s what we’re working for.”

Each day begins with breakfast, which can take some time. None of the children is fully capable of eating without some help. Some must be spoon-fed, others can handle the implements with a bit of help. Many days, a nurse will ask Nimsi Marquez, 8, to pick between juice and oatmeal, while an education assistant tries to keep Mathew from scooting his chair away from the table, his way of showing he’s not hungry. It’s a long process.

“One of the biggest challenges for me personally is you work on a goal for so long to see a small amount of progress,” Welbourn said. “You can be doing the same goal for days, but it’s like you see a piece of life in their eyes, and it makes it worthwhile.”

Sherpa said much of the work done in the medically fragile unit is for the benefit of the families.

“A lot of it is respite care,” Sherpa said, “to be able to send them to school and have it be a safe situation, where they’re learning and stimulated, and in a different way than at home.”

Craveiro, the special programs director, said it’s even more than that.

“I think parents of the severely disabled bear a special burden that society needs to share,” she said. “No one would choose this. But there but for the grace of God goes any of us.”

The twins’ parents, Scott and Ruth Boehmer, understand that. They said it’s helpful to have some time to get things done each day.

Ruth, a stay-at-home mom, said getting shopping done is much simpler without the boys.

“We can get things around the house done,” Scott said. “Just all-around, everyday life things.”

Once physical therapy is complete, students often go into assigned general education classrooms for story time or another event like music class.

“When I was a kid, it was like, ‘Don’t look at them,’” Sherpa said. “It’s good for other kids in the school to see kids like this.”

And the normal students get to learn all about their disabled classmates.

One day, Welbourn brought Elliana into Kellie Kathman’s class. When she wheeled in, the rest of the students cheered.

“Ellie!”

They offered her compliments on the plush bunny she’d brought with her to class. Then Kathman started reading a book about a sleepy pig, and students took turns passing the book to Elliana so she could touch the fuzzy illustrations.

When her shoe fell off, Welbourn was ready.

“Oh no!” she said, laughing. “Cinderella.”

Throughout the story, Elliana wiggled her arms and legs. When it was time to leave, the students all said goodbye, and Ellie moved an arm up, as if waving to them.

The students have to eat lunch, then spend the rest of the day busy, working on the computer or with other learning implements. Some return to their classrooms. On a recent day, Nimsi sat at the computer watching photos of her family flash across the screen, while Danny sat on a mat and held a musical toy to his ear. Another day, Welbourn placed Elliana on a padded table and removed her back brace to stretch her arms, and rub her jaw and neck.

At the end of the day, the Boehmers pick the twins up from school, and the rest are wheeled to the waiting school bus. Welbourn and co-workers communicate on a daily basis with parents by writing in logs that they send home with students.

Their schoolwork isn’t complex. But for these students, it may mean the world.

“I like to think they’re happy,” Welbourn said. “It gives them an opportunity to be around other kids their own age, it lets them do what they’re capable of doing. If there’s something in there, and we can help with it, it’s all worthwhile.”

Love it. Public schools are about as appropriate for teaching these kids as a library is for teaching soccer.

They've even worked Cinderella, hero-fantasies & other liberal BS and indoctrinated it into these kids heads.

Do these kids deserve some sort of education? Hell yes! But this "mainstreaming" is possibly The Stupidest, Most Expensive execution conceivable. The "mainstreaming" is done because the parents refusal to accept reality that Their Kids Are Different, and cramming them shoulder with "normal" kids ain't gonna "rub off".

It's TOO FUCKING BAD that your kid hasn't fulfilled your pie-in-the-sky liberal fantasies, BUT FUCKING UP THE EDUCATION OF 35 OTHER KIDS IS FUCKING SELFISH & ABOMINABLE.

Even the babysitting function of the school & by extension The Federal Government is exposed for what it is. These kids have become an INCONVENIENCE for their parents & as such are abandoned to the school system, a COMPLETELY INAPPROPRIATE venue.

This deranged fucking system costs taxpayers MILLIONS, and it is solely due to PATHETIC SELFISH PARENTS & LIBERAL GUILT.

Bend-LaPine is overrun with Hispanic kids who CANNOT speak English, are not being taught English, who cannot communicate with the teacher, but their parents are working at some shithole job ILLEGALLY to make minimum wage... WHY?

WTF!

April 20, 2008 9:56 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
Where's the bile?

Postscript with your own take, please.

See above.

April 20, 2008 9:57 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
Is it a coincidence this person's name is Sherpa?

Sherpa: Someone who shepherds along some lazy fucker who is too wimpy to do the work themselves.

Thank God these lazy ass parents have a Sherpa in the local school system to do the hard work that they won't.

April 20, 2008 10:09 AM


timothy said...
This 1974 law attracts money like darkness attracts a grue.

Public policy is all about trade-offs. Doing stuff in an absolute manner is just a good way to use up 10 times as much money as reasonable people might make thinking practically and locally.

Please, provide those overburdened parents some help. Provide those poor kids some appropriate stimulus. Teach mainstream kids some compassion.

But seperate it from learning. Don't complain that our schools are not churning out world-competitive students without asking why education money has been diverted to such a degree.

Paul, I'm with you on this one. But I'm against you on the Hispanic issue. Yes, I want the system fixed so only legals are here. But if a Hispanic kid is here, we need to teach him or her. It's in our best interests. There is nothing wrong with Hispanic kids. They learn just fine.

April 20, 2008 10:13 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
Doing stuff in an absolute manner is just a good way to use up 10 times as much money as reasonable people might make thinking practically and locally.

This is what NO CHILD LEFT BEHIND is. This legislation has so many unintended consequences (?) it's not even funny. It's primary side effect is to slow down the rate of teaching progress to the SLOWEST KID IN CLASS.

"Mainstreaming" luckily slows things down to the sleeping point. My kids come home with spelling words & math problems that they could do in kindergarten (3-4 years ago). Public schools are an economic & educational abomination.

When kids ARE different, we insist that they paradoxically be MAINSTREAMED, but also get an enormous amount of SPECIAL TREATMENT. Typical of liberal doctrine, what they believe is COMPLETELY INTERNALLY INCONSISTENT & IMPOSSIBLE IN ITS EXECUTION.

"I want my kid to be with other kids, but I also want him to receive an inordinate amount of attention, money, and resources that is not available to other kids."

But I'm against you on the Hispanic issue. Yes, I want the system fixed so only legals are here.

Solution: Abolish the U.S. Merge with Mexico.

OK, Brucey... don't you think we should AT LEAST teach these kids English FIRST? We're NOT EVEN DOING THAT. We're allowing this ILLEGAL DUMPING of kids, and NO ONE has the slightest intention of teaching them ANYTHING.

April 20, 2008 10:29 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
Sorry Timmy... I addressed that to Brucey out of reflex.

I was elected to lead, not to read!"

McBain

April 20, 2008 10:31 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
And what's stupid is that "mainstreaming" has produced Yet Another Level Of Stratifying Kids By Intelligence. To wit, the TAG program. This program pulls kids out of "mainstream" classes, and puts them in classes that are actually closer to where ALL NORMAL KIDS should be.

And what's GREAT is while AUTISTIC kids are mainstreamed at HORRENDOUS COSTS, the TAG program has to justify it's existence at ZERO ADDITIONAL COSTS or it will be terminated.

But we've dumbed it down to the COMA POINT, and luckily while QUALITY HAS IMPLODED, COSTS HAS EXPLODED. Thank God for LIBERAL BULLSHIT STUPIDITY.

April 20, 2008 10:38 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
California home prices plummet 26 percent amid foreclosures

A glut of foreclosed homes helped prompt a 26 percent plunge in California home prices in March, spotlighting a trend that experts said is likely to keep squeezing the struggling market for at least several more months.

More than 38 percent of California homes sold in March had been foreclosed at some point during the previous year, DataQuick Information Systems said in its survey released Thursday.

That helped drive the state's median home price down to $358,000, from $484,000 in March 2007, when the market peaked, DataQuick said.

In addition, the number of new and resale houses and condos sold last month plummeted 38.3 percent from a year earlier to 24,565.

"When you look at areas with high foreclosure rates, the foreclosures sort of establish the value of the market," said Russ Valone, president of MarketPointe Realty Advisors, a research firm in San Diego.

Prices in California, once among the nation's hottest housing markets, could bottom out in summer or fall, around the same time foreclosures peak and lenders further loosen credit standards, DataQuick analyst John Karevoll said.

"Lots of activity is on hold because the mortgage spigot turned off," Karevoll said. "Between now and fall, we'll see more mortgage lending. Lots of these sales that haven't happened will happen."

Meanwhile, even more foreclosed homes are likely to go on the market as low, introductory interest rates expire and people struggle to make house payments, said Rick Sharga, vice president of marketing at RealtyTrac, a research firm.

Figures for previous years were not immediately available, but Karevoll said the March percentage for foreclosed home sales was believed to be an all-time high for California.

Foreclosed homes in the state sell for about 15 percent less than non-foreclosed homes in the same neighborhoods, bringing all prices down, he said.

Riverside and San Bernardino counties — a rapidly growing region known as the Inland Empire — were particularly hard hit. Foreclosures accounted for 56 percent of the sales last month in Riverside County, where the median price of a home fell 27 percent to $306,250.

The nationwide foreclosure glut is expected to worsen in May and June as two- and three-year introductory interest rates expire on homes purchased in 2005 and 2006, Sharga said.

Further souring of the economy could make it even tougher for people who lose jobs to cover mortgage payments, Karevoll said.

"If we do have a recession in California, things will get bloody out there," he said.

The foreclosure glut has hit California especially hard. The state ranks only behind Nevada — and just ahead of Florida, Arizona and Colorado — in the percentage of households in foreclosure, according to RealtyTrac's March rankings.

California and Arizona are victims of an overheated market in the early part of the decade, when banks lent money for homes that buyers could not afford, said Sharga. Nevada and Florida had lots of speculative buyers.

Los Angeles Neighborhood Housing Services, a nonprofit group, is counseling about 2,000 financially troubled homeowners a month, up from about 200 a month at this time last year, said Lori Gay, chief executive officer.

The group developed a "triage system" to accommodate the flood of people seeking to avoid foreclosure, Gay said. Previously, the organization worked with people over three or four months, often in classrooms. Now it asks people to tackle questions online and aims to give them quick answers.

"We're expediting in a way that we wouldn't have to before," Gay said. "Now there's not a lot of time. They're up against the wall."

The affordability of foreclosed homes has helped some buyers.

Cyndie Schubert, 52, who earns $16.94 an hour as a parking garage attendant, said she bought a San Diego home out of foreclosure for $250,000 after two years of looking for places that were out of her reach.

"I walk to work, I have my white picket fence," said Schubert, who lives with her 25-year-old daughter. "It's got a little yard but that's all right."

Her mortgage payment of $1,104 eats up much of her first monthly paycheck, but it's only $300 more than what she was paying to rent an apartment in a crime-ridden neighborhood where she was raised in suburban El Cajon.

She pays her other bills with her second monthly paycheck.

"I got caught up on my bills, and it was time for me to do something," Schubert said.

April 20, 2008 10:45 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
Vacant Homes in U.K. Prove Speculator Nightmare as Losses Mount

By Simon Packard

April 17 (Bloomberg) -- Richard Lee spent 5.3 million pounds ($10 million) buying 20 rental homes across the U.K. with just 150,000 pounds of his own money. Today, the properties are worth about 60 percent less and owned by the banks that financed the purchases.

Lee was one of thousands enticed by one of Europe's top five best-performing residential property markets during the past decade. Now repossessions are mounting and properties stand empty as many investors fail to find the tenants needed to cover their mortgages after a building boom flooded cities, especially Leeds and Manchester, with apartments.

The unraveling buy-to-rent investment market contributed to a 2.5 percent drop in home prices last month, the biggest since 1992, a report by mortgage lender HBOS Plc shows. Britain is among the countries most likely to follow the U.S. into a housing slump, according to the International Monetary Fund. Prices may drop 10 percent this year and next, said Michael Saunders, a London-based economist at Citigroup Inc.

``Buy-to-let investment was a bubble inside the housing market bubble,'' Saunders said. ``It's turning out worse than I thought.''

Home purchases by investors such as Lee helped triple housing prices between 1997 and 2007. The buy-to-rent market in the U.K. increased 19-fold to about 190 billion pounds in the same period, according to London-based broker Savills Plc.

Tax Incentive

Banks started promoting buy-to-let mortgages in the mid- 1990s, after the government ended rent controls and introduced fixed-term leases to ensure that tenants vacated properties. Interest payments on the loans are tax-deductible, making them attractive for landlords.

Rental properties generated annual investment returns of about 22 percent in the five years ended March 31, according to the Association of Residential Letting Agents in Warwick, England. The U.K. FTSE All-Share Index climbed about 12 percent, including reinvested dividends.

The ``virtuous circle'' of rental investment that powered the U.K. housing market was broken by falling property values and banks' retrenchment following record mortgage-related losses, Saunders said. Banks and securities firms have disclosed about $245 billion of asset writedowns and credit losses since the beginning of 2007.

The number of available buy-to-let mortgages dwindled to 926 in the first week of April from 3,362 at the start of August 2007, according to personal finance Web site Moneyfacts. Average two- year fixed-rate mortgage rates have climbed to 6.5 percent, or 1.5 percentage points more than the gross rental yield from a property in the first quarter.

Vulnerable Investors

Investors such as Lee, who have high levels of debt, and homebuilders that focused on developments in the center of English cities such as Leeds and Manchester are now the most vulnerable to the deflating buy-to-let market.

Buy-to-let investors who were behind on their mortgages by three months or more increased by 25 percent to 7,584 in the fourth quarter, according to the London-based Council of Mortgage Lenders. Repossessions rose 26 percent to 1,247.

Connells Asset Management in Leighton Buzzard, England, which sold more than 10,000 repossessed homes last year, expects the number of foreclosures to rise from the 20 percent gain already reported, led by cities in the northern part of the country.

High-Rise Condos

The skyline of central Leeds is dominated by construction cranes erecting high-rise condominiums, 60 percent of which were sold before completion to buy-to-let investors, according to London-based real estate broker CB Richard Ellis Hamptons International.

``Leeds is where we are seeing more city-center apartments coming onto our books,'' said Managing Director Mike Pudney.

Thousands more apartments are being built in the center of the city, where two-bedroom homes lost 12 percent of their value in the past two years, according to London-based research firm Hometrack Ltd. Brokers report average rents for these properties have dropped by about 20 percent and about 13 percent of city- center apartments are empty, according to Leeds City Council estimates, based on local tax returns.

``Twelve months ago, development was an easy way to make your fortune,'' said Tom Bloxham, chairman of Manchester-based Urban Splash, which develops derelict sites. ``Today, it's a disaster zone.''

`Mini-Floridas'

City center condominium developments like what's happening in Leeds represent Britain's ``mini-Floridas,'' said Alastair Stewart, who tracks homebuilders at Dresdner Kleinwort Securities in London. The state of Florida had the third-highest foreclosure rate in the U.S. in March, with one foreclosure for every 282 households, according to RealtyTrac Inc., the Irvine, California- based seller of data on mortgage defaults.

In Leeds, the market got so bad that a unit of Taylor Wimpey Plc, the U.K.'s largest homebuilder, delayed the planned 800-unit Green Bank condominium project in November. It may seek a zoning change to allow a mixed development of offices, shops and apartments. Taylor Wimpey dropped 40 percent in the past six months in London trading on concern about the collapse of the buy- to-let market and the slide in land values and home prices.

Barratt Developments Plc, Bellway Plc, Bovis Homes Group Plc, Berkeley Group Holdings Plc, Persimmon Plc and Redrow Plc declined by 16 percent to 48 percent in the same period.

Investment Clubs

Newly built apartments accounted for a ``significant part'' of the investments made by 61 percent of new buy-to-let investors over the past six years, Savills reported. Many of those purchases were brokered by the dozens of Internet-based property investment clubs that sprang up since 2000.

The clubs often attracted novice buyers, some of whom lacked ``an understanding of the risks that such investments pose,'' according to U.K. regulators at the Financial Services Authority. In May 2005, the government forced two of the clubs into liquidation to protect investors.

For a fee, the clubs offer members residential developments before construction work begins. They negotiate a price with homebuilders that is below the valuation made by an appraiser, and collect a percentage of the purchase price as a fee. The clubs also offer their dues-paying members property management, home insurance, legal and mortgage-broking services.

City Gate 2

Lee, 37, bought an apartment in the City Gate 2 development in Manchester for 239,500 pounds in October 2005. An identical property in the same building sold for 115,000 pounds earlier this year, said Lee, who has surrendered his keys to the bank.

Lee also purchased 17 properties, most of them in Leeds, in late 2005. He said he expected to earn a steady income from renting to students.

After the transactions were completed, Lee said he realized he had overpaid for the properties. He said 15 hadn't been refurbished as promised, the tenants occupying the homes had left and rental-income projections were wildly optimistic.

``The valuations were 15 years ahead of their time,'' Lee said. ``The biggest genius in the world couldn't have got those loans to work.''

Lee estimates his properties are worth about 3 million pounds less than he paid for them. The banks will probably ask Lee to repay the money when the homes, now in their possession, are sold. He doesn't have the money, he said.

Legal Action

Lee and 85 other investors plan to sue the developers, lenders, appraisers and solicitors involved in their property transactions. Lee's attorney, Hammad Ahmad of Max Gold Partnership in Hull, England, said the lawsuit will probably be filed in about two months.

Regulators and the government are beginning to review the practices and excesses of the U.K.'s housing boom. The FSA said in its 2008 report on financial risks that ``organized property fraud is most common in new-build and purpose-built flats in major towns and cities, and where renting is the main form of tenure.''

The FSA is probing more than 200 cases of suspected mortgage fraud and the City of London Police department is recruiting for its economic crime department to investigate fraud nationally.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling last week appointed James Crosby, former chief executive officer of HBOS, to make recommendations on improving the U.K.'s mortgage market.

Tony McKay, chief operating officer of Instant Access Group, the country's largest property investment club, said it's time the U.K. started regulating companies such as his.

``It's really strange,'' he said in an interview. ``A pension-provider is regulated for taking in just 20 pounds a month.''

Many homeowners and tenants have profited from the buy-to-let boom, said Michael Ball, professor of urban and property economics at Reading University, 35 miles west of London. And even as home prices decline, most investors will hold onto their properties, according to a Savills survey.

Once he has dug himself out of his current financial difficulties, Lee will consider getting back into the business.

``Would I do buy-to-let again?'' he said. ``Without a shadow of a doubt. This time I'll ensure I'm in control of all the levers.''

April 20, 2008 10:47 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
City of London Police department is recruiting for its economic crime department...

Looks like we're close to anarchy & civil war in this Post-Bubble Apocalypse...

April 20, 2008 10:49 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
http://www.comstockfunds.com/files/NLPP00000%5C298.pdf

April 20, 2008 10:52 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
``The valuations were 15 years ahead of their time,'' Lee said. ``The biggest genius in the world couldn't have got those loans to work.''

Lee estimates his properties are worth about 3 million pounds less than he paid for them. The banks will probably ask Lee to repay the money when the homes, now in their possession, are sold. He doesn't have the money, he said.

Legal Action

Lee and 85 other investors plan to sue the developers, lenders, appraisers and solicitors involved in their property transactions. Lee's attorney, Hammad Ahmad of Max Gold Partnership in Hull, England, said the lawsuit will probably be filed in about two months.

Good to see that the U.S. is not the only country filled to the brim with lawsuit-happy deranged lunatics who refuse to take responsibility for their actions.

I LOVE this VICTIM-MENTALITY that has overrun this planet. Feels like something akin to the Black Plague will be necessary to cleanse the planet of humanities increasing need to blame others for their own genetic programming to self-destruct.

Jeebus, please KILL THESE STUPID FUCKERS.

April 20, 2008 11:01 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
This landmark post marks a new phase in the blogosphere.

It's like the offseason in baseball or reruns on TV.

Sometimes, wouldn't you rather watch an old re-run of McMillan & Wife than some crappy new reality show?

April 20, 2008 11:18 AM


LavaBear said...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XoF2DLBO1Vo

April 20, 2008 11:37 AM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
I have 3 questions:

1) WHY IS IT A WHITE OUT BLIZZARD IN BEND ON APRIL 20 WHEN IT'S SUPPOSED TO BE 65 DEGREES OUT?

2) Why!

3) WHY!

April 20, 2008 12:02 PM


timothy said...
>>don't you think we should AT LEAST teach these kids English FIRST?

No. I don't think all math and science learning should stop while the kid learns English.

Hispanic kids that grow up here will learn English easily. Their kids won't even understand the Spanish-speaking grandparents. There is no evidence that the Hispanics are learning English at a slower rate than previous waves of immigrants. It just seems that way because that's what we're surrounded by at the moment.

But back to the other problem. Ever since the Civil War, the Federal Gov't has held sway over the states, and pressed its power more and more. The trend is unmistakable. All it takes is the country seeing a bad situation somewhere and an oppressive Federal solution is created.

April 20, 2008 12:03 PM


timothy said...
>>3) WHY!

Dude. Global cooling.

April 20, 2008 12:04 PM


Anonymous said...
"But if a Hispanic kid is here, we need to teach him or her. It's in our best interests. There is nothing wrong with Hispanic kids. They learn just fine."
+++

And also:
">>don't you think we should AT LEAST teach these kids English FIRST?

No. I don't think all math and science learning should stop while the kid learns English.

Hispanic kids that grow up here will learn English easily."

+++

Okay, I hear the bit about teaching the local Hispanic (some illegal, some born here, thus legal) kids.

But the way to teach 'em is via English. In Woodburn, they try and teach the Hispanics in Spanish. I think they even try teaching them English classes in Spanish. They (Woodburn School District) brags about being able to teach a Hispanic student through all high school without speaking in English. Imagine that!! A high school graduate who still can't speak or understand a lick of English!! How many jobs do you think that student would be qualified for in the Woodburn area?

That is wrong. Hispanic students need to be totally immersed in English. Want to learn in America? Then learn everything in English. Math in English, History in English, Biology in English, etc...

The excuse that Woodburn SD gives is that it is hard to be immersed in English. So what? Life is tough. Deal with it. No pain no gain. I did it in a foreign country; so can they, and be beeter for it.

April 20, 2008 12:24 PM


Anonymous said...
... are you really that much more 'beeter' for it?

April 20, 2008 12:42 PM


timothy said...
What do we hear from the Bulletin about the Newport moderns?

Nothing. Nothing. Nothing.

Nothing.

Then finally, we get the story. But not until AFTER one has sold and 3 are pending.

So it's still pitched as a bit of a success story. Whew, they finally sold. Sure, half-off, and the builder and banks LOST money. But it's not part of the gaping chasm of inventory any longer. Maybe now things are moving since prices are falling. All we need to do is clear it all out and we're good. We'll be back at 30% annual appreciation any time now.

It really wasn't a story that the Bulletin wanted to cover until the pending sales.

April 20, 2008 12:44 PM


timothy said...
I think Hispanics not learning English is mostly a myth. Or there are a few cases or a few places where it's true and people ignore the huge numbers of Hispanics learning English.

"Hispanics by a large margin believe that immigrants have to speak English to be a part of American society and even more so that English should be taught to the children of immigrants, according to recent surveys conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center."

7/8 of Hispanics born here say they speak English fluently. Yes, the 1 out of 8 is bothersome. But I bet their kids will speak fluently. Just doesn't bother me.

The real problem is the size of this immigration, not whether we educate them in English or Spanish.

My grandfather escaped Austria and was immersed in English. He always felt sad for the couple of years in school where he didn't know what the hell was going on. Yes, he learned English, but he felt shortchanged on the math he lost, as it directly applied to the work he ended up doing.

Mostly, I think we should admire those kids who are speaking and getting along in two languages. We're a bunch of spoiled fuckers, we who have been here for a few generations.

April 20, 2008 12:54 PM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
It really wasn't a story that the Bulletin wanted to cover until the pending sales.

That applies to just about EVERY Bend RE story extant. I was very surprised they ran such a thing at all.

You're right, they waited until SILVER LINING time... but the guts of this story was about The Cloud. I think they've figured out that Head-In-Sand strategy og ignoring of this, The Single Most Important Story In The History Of Bend, undermines their credibility.

Plus The Absence of Bulletin backbone in editorial independence dictates that negative RE stories are no longer as taboo as they were a year ago, when everyone here was still on the fence regarding Bend escaping the National Calamity. A year ago, EVERY SINGLE STORY WAS AMBIVALENT, full of RE experts (Realtors) who were predicting that Bend would avert disaster. Now, at least that has ebbed somewhat...

April 20, 2008 1:02 PM


bruce said...
Re: OK, Brucey... don't you think we should AT LEAST teach these kids English FIRST? We're NOT EVEN DOING THAT. We're allowing this ILLEGAL DUMPING of kids, and NO ONE has the slightest intention of teaching them ANYTHING.

Most of the kids I've seen (I've been at RE Jewell of late, with a large percentage, maybe up to a 25% in some grades, of Hispanic students) understand English quite well, although some have trouble. They go into the NCLB tutoring progam with all the white kids that need extra tutoring.

Re: "Mainstreaming" luckily slows things down to the sleeping point. My kids come home with spelling words & math problems that they could do in kindergarten (3-4 years ago). Public schools are an economic & educational abomination.

No, mainstreaming isn't the cause for that--NCLB is. This law forces schools to teach to specific testing or risk losing funding. For smart kids, this level is pretty low. Mainstreaming has absolutely nothing to do with dumbing down classwork for regular students.

The biggest issue I've seen with special needs kids is the extremely wide range of physical and mental abilities. Mainstreaming does most of them a lot of good, and they will be much less of a burden on society after they know how to count, cook, tell time, behave in socially acceptable ways, control their anger, etc.

Note that many of the special needs kids have behavioral issues, as all the ones I've been working with of late. Most of them have had a pretty sad life. As one of them put it the other day when I asked why he never had his daily progress report signed as is required to be on "green", "My Dad doesn't care and my Mom sleeps all day long."

Another with a single mother just lost their home and had to move into a motel a month ago. Another was recently reclaimed by his biological mother at age nine after being raised by his stepmother since his first year of age, who then promptly decided he didn't need his meds. This little guy simply cannot sit still without his meds. Luckily his mom soon realized that yes, perhaps he better stay on them. He is above his grade level in math.

Some of the ones I've run into that have a hard time or cannot communicate, so called "autistic" kids (although this term covers a lot of ground, too), are actually pretty good academically.

The absolute number of special needs kids is very low. At Jewell, we have nine or so in our behavioral program out of almost 750 students, and half of these are bused up from LaPine or Sunriver. There are more in another program, but I'm not sure how many. I'll ask on Monday. At High Desert Middle school there are about 12 out of over 1000 students. Summit High has about a dozen, too.

Typically, kids will spend half the day in special needs classes, and most of the rest in regular classes. The extra staffing is mostly by $12-14/hr EA's, same as for NCLB-related programs. Staff ratio seems to be 2-3 kids per staff member, although often a single kid will be assigned an EA and that EA will work with all the kids, not just the one they are assigned to. Last fall, at Highland Magnet School, I spent a couple of months assigned to help with one kid termed "autistic", and while occasionally I had to totally focus on him, 98% of the time I was just another teacher working with 1/3 or 1/4 of the class at at time along with the certified teacher, another EA, and occasionally a parent helper.

It's a tough world for them. I suppose you could just warehouse them, or force their parents into eventual bankruptcy trying to homecare and homeschool them. They are a burden on society, and many probably will always be. But when we are blowing billions of dollars a month on no-bid contracts in an illegal war, I find it kind of hard to get really worked up about it. In the long run teaching kids to take care of themselves as best they can is likely cheaper in the long run than warehousing them and not teaching them much of anything.

If you want to rail at something, focus on NCLB. We are wasting a hell of a lot more money on that than we are on special needs kids.

April 20, 2008 1:04 PM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
And where's Buster? I can't believe I actually miss that nut!

Timmy's had to step into your shoes Buster to ridicule every single line of my posts. And I have to say, he's not nearly as effective in completely crushing my spirit as you are.

Do you need some man-love, baby?

I would've put more of your quotes in here, but you post anonymously so I was reduced to finding your comments by typing 'bruce-pussy' into my browsers search bar.

We love you Buster! ABUSE US! We are unable to smell & offer an unbiased opinion on the putrescence of our collective cuntlery!

April 20, 2008 1:12 PM


bruce said...
I know, he hardly even bitches about my off-topic posts anymore. Did Buster go on vacation or something?

April 20, 2008 1:15 PM


timothy said...
>>Timmy's had to step into your shoes Buster to ridicule every single line of my posts.

Oh yeah. Like I've really been doing that.

And Bruce, people have been noticing the $$$% drain from special needs programs way before NCLB.

The biggest problem is usually in rural schools, where one very needy kid can affect everyone else in the school.

April 20, 2008 1:27 PM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

If you want to rail at something, focus on NCLB.

What bothers me is the ETERNALLY CONFLICTED nature of implementing this sort of crap.

Listen, I have an immediate family member who would definitely would be characterized as "special needs", and "mainstreaming" him would have been catastrophic for EVERYONE. Besides the inane idea that he could possibly learn in the public school environment, he would have been a horrendous burden on the teachers & children, and possibly a physical hazard. Were he my child, I would NOT HAVE DREAMT of putting him in public school. It would have been a nightmare.

But this NIGHTMARE is exactly what we have legislated our schools into becoming. Liberals DESPERATELY want to HOMOGONIZE their children ("He's just like every other kid, DAMMIT!") by hurling them into a completely inappropriate environment that penalizes EVERYONE involved, EVEN THEIR OWN CHILD! It's these selfish ass pricks that I loathe.

They'll "mainstream" their own autistic (hispanic, or whatever) kid if it wrecks the education of 35 other kids, and they'll do it in a heartbeat.

Selfish Californication of our schools.

Why the fuck we are even educating the children of ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS is simply too ludicrous to even talk about.

"Well, your Honor, my client was attempting to rape the victim, and I agree that while attempting to commit the crime, we could have had a case against him. But ultimately, he DID successfully RAPE THE VICTIM, so we must drop all charges & reward him for his trouble by putting his children through school at taxpayer expense, and providing him with food stamps."

April 20, 2008 1:27 PM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
Only in the U.S. will you find that certain of our laws are PUNISHABLE when you succeed in breaking them, and others are completely PARDONED if you succeed in breaking them.

Our legal system needs to be completely dismantled. Socialize medicine? Fuck that, socialize LAW first. It's more of a perverse abomination than Bend RE.

April 20, 2008 1:31 PM


Anonymous said...
Brucey-pussy, nobody bitches about your off topic posts. (did you ever really have on-topic posts? capstone buttplugs? statutory rape? CC Exec sessions? Bush is an idiot? Mormonism? and now NCLB?)

Nobody bitches anymore because you are now mostly ignored. You aren't worth even commenting on, because you are not worth anything.

Except for me, of course. But I am kinda sick that way, cause I find value in all human beings, even if only to criticize their idiotic behavior every week or two.

April 20, 2008 1:31 PM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

It's like the offseason in baseball or reruns on TV.

We're a bunch of spoiled fuckers, we who have been here for a few generations.

Oh yeah. Like I've really been doing that.

Everyone, let's give Tim a hug.

April 20, 2008 1:32 PM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Except for me, of course. But I am kinda sick that way, cause I find value in all human beings, even if only to criticize their idiotic behavior every week or two.

Oh yea. That's the stuff....

April 20, 2008 1:33 PM


Anonymous said...
Newport Moderns: It really wasn't a story that the Bulletin wanted to cover until the pending sales.

It was a nice misleading story. One of the "pending sales" had actually foreclosed last wednesday - two days before the article came out. The other two are contingent, not pending.

Zero pending.

The one that sold was to the VP of marketing of the mortgage company that was going to foreclose on it - not really a sale to someone to live in it.

Still 0 for 5 in my book.

April 20, 2008 1:58 PM


timothy said...
Yeah, I agree about the funky messy status of the Moderns, but the Bulletin is 100% happy to play up the fact that there are 3 pending signs up right now. That was my point.

How many years until The Plaza has sold (or rented) enough units that The Bulletin can insinuate a silver lining?

April 20, 2008 2:07 PM


bruce said...
Re: Listen, I have an immediate family member who would definitely would be characterized as "special needs", and "mainstreaming" him would have been catastrophic for EVERYONE. Besides the inane idea that he could possibly learn in the public school environment, he would have been a horrendous burden on the teachers & children, and possibly a physical hazard. Were he my child, I would NOT HAVE DREAMT of putting him in public school. It would have been a nightmare.

If he was seriously physically disabled, you have a point. Most of these kids simply are not. They have IEP's, and need extra attention, but I don't see much if anything being taken away from regular kids. Not as much as having a dozen extra EAs tutoring towards specific NCLB testing of a much larger number of kids.

April 20, 2008 2:31 PM


bruce said...
Re: How many years until The Plaza has sold (or rented) enough units that The Bulletin can insinuate a silver lining?

That may never happen...

BTW-What was featured in "What's Going Up" this week?

April 20, 2008 2:33 PM


timothy said...
>>BTW-What was featured in "What's Going Up" this week?

Don't know. Blood pressure?

April 20, 2008 3:58 PM


IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
>>BTW-What was featured in "What's Going Up" this week?

It was an addition to a law office.

No shit.

April 20, 2008 5:18 PM


Marge said...
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We are almost out of Bend RE stuff to talk about, unless rehashing over and over counts. I still think there is more bad to come with super low April sales and foreclosures beating sales.
It's still fucking snowing!!! Today should send more Cali's south.
Went to the Farmer's Market out at Pine Mtn. Ranch..cold but I bet it will be fun with some warmer weather. Yaks and Buffalo, fresh vegis', all sorts of organic stuff. Even pony rides and dog agility stuff. I really wanted the pony ride :)


Jeebus, please KILL THESE STUPID FUCKERS.

Just kill all the stupid fuckers. Including all of the presidential hopefuls. We haven't a chance with any of them. We are so screwed with the Fed blowouts and the lack of overvision of them we are going to be totally busted next year.
1981 here we come.
Deer in the yard is free food. If you fish, now you can only keep 5 Kokanee (starve) at Billy Chinook. This years growing season is already screwed, since it's still snowing.
Greenhouse, greenhouse, greenhouse, but don't let the gases out you might melt a glacier.


Blah blah, blah.

Rant...what rant

Sane....insane.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Just got back from my very first visit to a Trader Joe's. Conclusion?

Eh.

On a 1-10 scale, I gove it a 3.5, just below Rico's Mexican Market, which I give a 4.

I'm just curious why so many people LOVE that place (TJ's). It's VERY small, it's like a petite Wild Oats, with not nearly the selection, and prices that did not WOW me, at all.

Just exactly WHY were some people chomping at the bit for this place? Yawn. I'm not sure I'll ever go back. It's too far to drive for so little benefit, and it's like a snack shop for Euro-dreadlocked organic freaks. You can't actually FEED a family from what that store sells.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Blah blah, blah.

Et to Marge?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Went to the Farmer's Market out at Pine Mtn. Ranch..cold but I bet it will be fun with some warmer weather. Yaks and Buffalo, fresh vegis', all sorts of organic stuff. Even pony rides and dog agility stuff. I really wanted the pony ride :)

Where is this?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

... and please don't say "Pine Mountain"!

Exactly... where.

Anonymous said...

It funny that people are ranting about it snowing in April...you haven't been here long have you?

If you think it'll be any different next year, you are going to be disappointed.

I grow tomatoes, peas, beans, squash, greens, carrots, onions, potatoes, melons, & pumpkins every year. It can be done...without a greenhouse even.

Carry on with your whining about the snow, it gives me hope.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Yeah, and I am noticing a "bust" of sorts for local RE talk. BendBB has had 2 comments so far today. I've seen days when it gets no comments all day.

Bubble Overload?

Or maybe there's just no Rage Against The Machine anymore. The question of "whether" Bend will succumb or not has been answered.

And chronicling something as slow-moving and informationally "challenged" as Bends Bust, is just damned hard.

Look at those Eco-lux pieces of shit: Only carried by the local paper once the blogosphere had covered the topic ad nauseum.

There's no real local media impetus to cover this thing, doesn't do anyone any good. Only amounts to ad revenue lost.

Marge said...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
Went to the Farmer's Market out at Pine Mtn. Ranch..cold but I bet it will be fun with some warmer weather. Yaks and Buffalo, fresh vegis', all sorts of organic stuff. Even pony rides and dog agility stuff. I really wanted the pony ride :)

Where is this?


On Hwy 20E. Just before Dodds Rd, near milepost 9.Right side of the road.
In addition, thanks for the quotes, glad I can lend some real, yet limited, info to your blog.

Anonymous said...

yep, RE talk has slowed more than the sales. There is no argument left, shit is rolling backward and taking people out left and right. No amount of Hype/PR/COBA Bullshit can hide the truth. Now people just want to know how long before it comes back. At least 4-5 snowy April's will pass before we see this thing hit bottom and start to stagger it's way back to the surface.

Sad but true. I am not happy about it and don't wish any hateful shit on anyone. It's just the truth and the sooner we hit bottom, the sooner we get it over with.

bruce said...

Re: >>BTW-What was featured in "What's Going Up" this week?

It was an addition to a law office.

No shit.


Seriously--an ADDITION to an existing building is the best the BULL could come up with?

Boy, if that doesn't mark the end if RE optimism, I don't know what does.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The Great Experiment Is Over


“The state budget is chronically in deficit, California’s schools rank near the bottom of the states in academic achievement, and a severe water supply crisis is looming, all issues that the state Legislature has managed to sidestep for years or even decades.”

“But lawmakers are Johnny-on-the-spot in responding to matters ripped from the headlines.”

“A political feeding frenzy has erupted over the housing industry meltdown, for example, with dozens of measures that purport to alleviate the pain of those whose subprime mortgages have been foreclosed, even though most of those mortgages should never have been issued in the first place.”

“Whether any of the proposed nostrums would ease the mortgage situation is almost beside the point. Lawmakers, especially those from regions with high foreclosure levels, are scrambling to demonstrate their compassion by throwing bills into the hopper, seeking media notice and political credit for doing something.”

“Legislating in ignorance about a situation that hasn’t yet played itself out would appear to be the height of folly. And history would indicate that hasty lawmaking almost certainly would have unanticipated and perhaps very negative consequences.”

“The Hope for Homeowners Act of 2008 is an ambitious effort to address the crisis created by the collapse of the housing bubble, and the epidemic of predatory subprime mortgages over the years 2003-2007.”

“I…argue the effort to stabilize prices in bubble-inflated areas is counter-productive. Insofar as it succeeds, it makes homeownership less affordable for young people and families moving into the area.”

“If the sale price-to-rent ratio is 20 to 1 (in many cities it is higher), then this house would rent for just 5 percent of the sale price. This means that owners would end up paying 77 percent more in housing costs than a family who rents a comparable unit.”

“In addition, since house prices will continue to decline in these areas as the bubble deflates, it is unlikely that many of these families will accumulate any equity by the time they sell their home. In fact, most of the homeowners in these areas are likely to end up underwater.”

“If prices did temporarily stabilize at bubble-inflated levels, it would only lead to more construction, which would then place further downward pressure on prices.”

“A government house-price stabilization program that tries to maintain artificially high prices would face all the same drawbacks as farm price support programs that target artificially high prices, except the housing market is far larger.”

“Furthermore, it is difficult to see why it would be desirable to sustain artificially high prices, even if it were possible. Sustaining bubble-inflated prices means that it will be much harder for young people and families moving into an area to afford to buy a home.”


Funny to hear about the "outrageous" overvaluations elsewhere of "20:1" costs of owning vs renting. My entire neighborhood is over 30:1, and it's your standard rental STD nightmare.

Man, are we going down HARD.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The long hangover

Apr 10th 2008 | WASHINGTON, DC
From The Economist print edition
America's economy is in recession. Don't expect a quick recovery

IT MAY not be official but it is increasingly obvious: America's economy has slipped into recession. The latest labour-market figures—a jump in the unemployment rate to 5.1% and the loss of 98,000 private-sector jobs in March, the fourth consecutive month of decline—point to a shrinking economy. So do surveys of manufacturing and services. So does Ben Bernanke, chairman of the Federal Reserve. On April 2nd he told a congressional committee that output was unlikely to “grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and could even contract slightly.”

The official judges of American downturns—a group of academics at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)—define a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales.” (Contrary to popular belief, recession does not require two consecutive quarters of falling output.) Though the NBER's wonks will not pronounce for many months, their criteria look increasingly likely to be met.

The question now is: what kind of recession will this be? Shallow or deep; short or long? So far, it seems remarkably gentle, given that many think America is suffering its worst financial shock since the Great Depression. Since December the economy has shed an average of almost 80,000 jobs a month. In most recessions a rate of 150,000-200,000 is normal.

To be sure, this downturn has only just started. The labour market will surely worsen as firms cut back in the face of weaker consumer spending. But a buoyant world economy is still boosting American exports; a fiscal stimulus is on the way; real interest rates are around zero and likely to fall further; and, with the rescue of Bear Stearns, the Fed has given an implicit guarantee to Wall Street. So few forecasters expect outright slump. A liberal enough loosening of fiscal and monetary policy can stop recession turning into depression, and American policymakers have left little doubt that they will use their recession-fighting weaponry freely.

More controversial is the question of how long the weakness will last. Not very, Mr Bernanke told Congress. Growth will strengthen in the second half of the year, nourished by lower interest rates and the fiscal package. In 2009, he suggested, the economy would be growing “at or a little above” its trend rate, which the Fed is thought to put at around 2.5%. Many investors seem to agree that the downturn will be short as well as shallow. Share prices have recovered since the Bear Stearns rescue, even as economic statistics have been gloomy. The S&P 500 stockmarket index is around 5% higher than it was a couple of weeks ago and is still only 13% below its all-time high.

Others are more pessimistic. In its latest World Economic Outlook, published on April 9th, the IMF slashed its forecasts for America's economy both this year and next. It now expects GDP to shrink in every quarter of this year. By the fourth quarter the economy will be 0.7% smaller than a year before. (Only three months ago the fund expected a rise of 0.9%.) Nor does the IMF expect 2009 to be much better: GDP will grow, but at well below its trend rate.

Such a dramatic divergence of official economic opinion is rare. And it matters. Recent recessions, as defined by the NBER, have been both short and shallow: those of 1990-91 and 2001 each lasted eight months, below the post-war average of ten. If the Fed is right, the 2008 recession may be shorter and shallower still. That would be remarkable, given the extent of the housing bust and credit turmoil.

If the IMF is right, weakness will last longer this time. America's new president will be elected against the backdrop of a shrinking economy and on taking office will face months of economic malaise. That in turn will imply bigger budget deficits, and redefine next year's big domestic policy debates: whether to roll back George Bush's tax cuts for the wealthy, for instance, and how ambitiously to reform health care. It could fuel protectionist and populist sentiment, particularly since Americans are already unusually fed up. A new CBS/New York Times poll finds that eight out of ten people think the country is “on the wrong track”, the most since the question was first asked in 1991.

The hangover's duration will depend on many things, from the strength of foreign economies to the degree to which American firms cut jobs and investment. But top of the list, given the recession's origins in the property bust and the credit crunch, are the fate of the housing market and the resilience of consumer spending. On both counts, the odds are against catastrophe but on a lasting headache.

By many measures the news from housing is still getting grimmer. Housing starts are at less than half their peak, and builders are continuing to cut back. Although this has begun to reduce the stock of unsold new homes, the frailty of demand means that supply still vastly outweighs sales. At 9.8 months' worth of sales, the stock is at a 26-year high. The official overhang of existing homes (which excludes those repossessed) is not much lower. The excess of supply over demand means that the fall in house prices is accelerating. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller index, house prices are 13% off their peak. They fell at an annual rate of 25% in the three months to January.

The drop in house prices so far has left some 9m people, or 10% of all those with mortgages, owing more than their houses are worth. Among all mortgage borrowers, 6% are behind on their payments; among subprime borrowers, 17% are in arrears. Lenders are already foreclosing on more than 1m homes. The pessimists expect these figures to climb much higher, adding to supply and further depressing prices.

In the short term that is likely. But there are some signs of hope. Demand seems to have stabilised: since November total home sales have been running at an annualised rate of 5m or so (see chart 1). Lower prices have made houses a bit more affordable. And government action may help to ease the drought of mortgage finance stemming from the collapse of the subprime market and the contraction of the market for large (“jumbo”) mortgages, and to limit foreclosures.

At the height of the housing boom in 2006, non-traditional loans, such as subprime and jumbo mortgages, backed nearly 40% of home sales. Some $750 billion of financing disappeared as they shrank. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, America's government-backed mortgage behemoths, will fill part of that hole. The Bush administration recently announced changes to these institutions' capital rules, to let them buy up to an extra $200 billion of mortgages. Political momentum is also building to prevent a surge of foreclosures. For now Congress is debating some modest tax incentives. But a more ambitious idea is gaining support: to allow the Federal Housing Administration to refinance troubled mortgages at a discount.
Hit from all sides

Despite these hopeful signs, house prices will continue to fall until the excess inventory is worked off. Even the cheeriest analysts expect that average house prices will continue to fall this year. Worse, house-price deflation is only the first element of a quadruple whammy that is thumping American consumers. The other three elements are tougher credit conditions; a deteriorating labour market (with unemployment on the way up and wages slowing); and high commodity prices pushing up the cost of fuel and food.

Weekly private-sector wages rose by 3.6% in the year to March, the slowest pace since mid-2003. Headline consumer-price inflation is likely to have topped 4% in the same period, so for many real pay is falling. Economists at Goldman Sachs reckon that consumers' real discretionary cashflow—their income plus any new credit minus debt service and spending on essentials—has been shrinking since late last year.

Faced with all this, no wonder Americans are glum. The forward-looking bit of the Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence is at depths not seen since the recession of 1973. Indicators of financial stress outside housing, such as delinquencies on car loans and credit cards, are rising. And consumer spending, after years of resilience, has finally cracked. Not all economists share the IMF's view that spending is actually falling, but none doubts that it is at best barely growing. Because it makes up 70% of total demand, its feebleness does much to explain why the economy has tipped into recession.

On all four counts—house prices, credit, the labour market, and fuel and food prices—the consumer's position is likely to worsen in coming months. Granted, the imminent fiscal stimulus should help. Between early May and mid-July $117 billion will be paid out in tax rebates. The average American household with two children will get a cheque from Uncle Sam for up to $1,800 and will spend at least some of it.

Unfortunately, most of the forces dragging down consumer spending are likely to persist long after the cheques have been banked. Even with stronger exports, growth is likely to be too sluggish to raise incomes by a lot or offer much support to employment. Looser monetary policy will cushion but not avert financial deleveraging. Lending standards are usually tight for years after credit busts, not months. And by most estimates less than half the likely losses in America's financial sector have been written down. Meanwhile, lower house prices will reduce both homeowners' wealth and their potential collateral.

Even when house prices eventually stop falling, they will not suddenly soar. After years of tapping rising housing wealth to finance their consumption, Americans will need to build wealth the old fashioned way, by saving more. At 0.3%, the household saving rate is above its all-time nadir, but not by a lot (see chart 2).

No one knows by how much, or for how long, America's economy will be weighed down. The IMF's gloom is based in part on its reading of history. An analysis by the fund of post-war housing busts in rich countries, written in 2003, suggests that crashes typically last about four years and are often accompanied by banking crises. Economies end up 8% smaller, on average, than they would have been had they carried on growing at pre-crunch rates. Perhaps this time will be different, and the hangover will soon be gone. But given the scale of America's housing binge and of the financial crisis the bust has spawned, that seems unlikely.


Go & look at the 2 cool charts.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

From The Economist... I swear!

The joys of parenthood

Mar 27th 2008
From The Economist print edition
Why conservatives are happier than liberals

IN EVERY nursery there is one child known as the Biter. Who suffers the most from this child's delinquency? Not his classmates, whose bite marks quickly heal. It is the Biter's mum and dad, who endure sideways glances from other parents when dropping him off in the morning and fret constantly that their own poor parenting has produced a monster.

Arthur Brooks was once the father of a Biter. For a year, his son gnawed on boys, girls, siblings, friends and so many guests that he had to be removed from his own fourth birthday party. Mr Brooks worried, argued with his wife, lost sleep and sought professional help. So he speaks from experience when he says that having children does not make you happy.

Happily for the reader, his book, “Gross National Happiness”, is not a memoir. It is a subtle and engaging distillation of oceans of data. When researchers ask parents what they enjoy, it turns out that they prefer almost anything to looking after their children. Eating, shopping, exercising, cooking, praying and watching television were all rated more pleasurable than watching the brats, even if they don't bite. As Mr Brooks puts it: “There are many things in a parent's life that bring great joy. For example, spending time away from [one's] children.”

Despite this, American parents are much more likely to be happy than non-parents. This is for two reasons, argues Mr Brooks, an economist at Syracuse University. Even if children are irksome now, they lend meaning to life in the long term. And the kind of people who are happy are also more likely to have children. Which leads on to Mr Brooks's most controversial finding: in America, conservatives are happier than liberals.

Several books have been written about happiness in recent years. Some have tried to discern which nations are the happiest. Many more purport to offer a foolproof guide to self-fulfilment. Others wonder if the obsessive pursuit of happiness is itself making people miserable. Mr Brooks offers something different. He writes only about Americans, thus avoiding the pitfalls of trying to figure out, for example, whether Japanese people mean the same thing as Danes when they say they are happy. And he writes intriguingly about the politics of happiness.

In 2004 Americans who called themselves “conservative” or “very conservative” were nearly twice as likely to tell pollsters they were “very happy” as those who considered themselves “liberal” or “very liberal” (44% versus 25%). One might think this was because liberals were made wretched by George Bush. But the data show that American conservatives have been consistently happier than liberals for at least 35 years.

This is not because they are richer; they are not. Mr Brooks thinks three factors are important. Conservatives are twice as likely as liberals to be married and twice as likely to attend church every week. Married, religious people are more likely than secular singles to be happy. They are also more likely to have children, which makes Mr Brooks confident that the next generation will be at least as happy as the current one.

When religious and political differences are combined, the results are striking. Secular liberals are as likely to say they are “not too happy” as to say they are very happy (22% to 22%). Religious conservatives are ten times more likely to report being very happy than not too happy (50% to 5%). Religious liberals are about as happy as secular conservatives.

Why should this be so? Mr Brooks proposes that whatever their respective merits, the conservative world view is more conducive to happiness than the liberal one (in the American sense of both words). American conservatives tend to believe that if you work hard and play by the rules, you can succeed. This makes them more optimistic than liberals, more likely to feel in control of their lives and therefore happier. American liberals, at their most pessimistic, stress the injustice of the economic system, the crushing impersonal forces that keep the little guy down and what David Mamet, a playwright, recently summed up as the belief that “everything is always wrong”. Emphasising victimhood was noble during the 1950s and 1960s, says Mr Brooks. By overturning Jim Crow laws, liberals gave the victims of foul injustice greater control over their lives. But in as much as the American left is now a coalition of groups that define themselves as the victims of social and economic forces, and in as much as its leaders encourage people to feel helpless and aggrieved, he thinks they make America a glummer place.
Extreme happiness

So much for right versus left. Mr Brooks also finds that extremists of both sides are happier than moderates. Some 35% of those who call themselves “extremely liberal” say they are very happy, against only 22% of ordinary liberals. For conservatives, the gap is smaller: 48% to 43%. Extremists are happy, Mr Brooks reckons, because they are certain they are right. Alas, this often leads them to conclude that the other side is not merely wrong, but evil. Some two-thirds of America's far left and half of the far right say they dislike not only the other side's ideas, but also the people who hold them.

Oddly for a political writer, Mr Brooks thinks his country is doing pretty well. Americans are mostly free to pursue happiness however they choose with little interference from the state. Well-meaning coercion is less common than in Europe, though it can still backfire spectacularly. He cites this example: a county in Virginia recently banned giving food to the homeless unless it was prepared in a county-approved kitchen, to prevent food poisoning. Churches stopped ladling soup, and more homeless people were forced to scavenge in skips. This hurt not only the hungry, but also the volunteers who might have found satisfaction in helping them. The surest way to buy happiness, argues Mr Brooks, is to give some of your time and money away.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Hey Costa,

You want a model of how to run The Bulletin, go look at The Economist. 100% free online content. And it's damn good content. So a lot of people buy their magazine too.

Man, I love them crazy Brits.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

No amount of Hype/PR/COBA Bullshit can hide the truth.

I wonder if these people realized that everytime they unleashed their torrent of bullshit, the backlash was voluminous & well-backed by facts.

Maybe they mean to shutdown their opponents, by shutting down themselves.

Maybe a smart move... for once.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

A good post over on BendBB by "Easy Money":

Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2008 8:35 pm Post subject: WORST IDEAS
Reply with quote

The boom was really interesting to watch unfold. A lot of really clever people put together some cool projects, but unfortunately some truly awful schemes were proposed, financed, and (partially) developed.

Here are my nominations for the worst ideas;

1.) Yarrow- A 1900 lot subdivision in Madras. If it ever fills up, this will double the size of a town that has never had a mad scramble of people trying to move to. At current absorption rates, Yarrow will build out in 950 years.

2.) Demolishing the Bond street building- 8 revenue producing rentals (including the Alpenglow cafe) were demolished before obtaining preliminary approval or financing for the successor building- brain dead property management

3.) Juniper Ridge- a multitude of reasons- 1400 hundred of them are homesites

4.) The Plaza- Where to start?

5.) Remington Ranch- A me too concept that might have made sense if Pronghorn and Brasada had sold out. The estimated cost of bringing Avion to this debacle is over 14 million - and is the main reason this brainstorm is on hold.

6.) Desert Sun’s indoor Motocross park- Maybe in a metropolitan area this would have some chance of working, but next to Brad’s Auto Wrecking?

Any other nominations?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I think Mercato will ultimately be DOA as well.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Redmond Water Park!

Are we counting only "built" stuff?

The Shire is a shoe-in also

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Also drove by 2 good nominees today, Garag-Mahol & Tuscany Buttplugs.

That Tuscany crapper is soooooo not going to work. Those structures are wall-to-wall. What is it? 90 units on 5ac? And they're that Phoenix Inn adobe crap.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

IronHorse is in the same league as Yarrow, I think.

And I also think Thornburgh may be a bigger "no-show" than Remington Ranch.

Amazing how many horrendously bad ideas got funding around here....

Anonymous said...

The bit in the graphs about 20% YOY increase in revenue is BS, unless Bend moved out of Deschutes County in Jan. 2007. Somehow, the county as a whole brought in less than the city.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Actually a really good article on other nationwide housing crashes, and how bad they can get.

U.S. housing bust not so special: report

Jacqueline Thorpe, Financial Post Published: Wednesday, April 16, 2008


TORONTO -- The United States may be suffering its worst housing bust since the Great Depression but by international standards it's not so special.

A new report by Goldman Sachs suggests the United States is going through a garden variety housing downturn that will involve a sharp slowing in overall economic growth and a sluggish recovery that equity markets will nevertheless sniff out well ahead of time.

Indeed, as far as house busts go, Canada can claim some fame. Our December 1989 to September 1998 slow motion crash was the fourth-longest of 24 busts among OECD countries, Goldman said.

It came in at 35 quarters, behind only Japan's 67-quarter marathon during the 1990s, Germany's post-unification slump of 52 quarters and Switzerland's 45-quarter downturn during the 1990s.

In terms of price declines, Canada's 1990s slump was the second-smallest. At a 16% decline in real prices, it came in ahead of Germany's first property slump - a decline of 15% during the 1980s.

The biggest decline in price terms was the Netherlands which posted a 50% decline in prices in the early 1980s, Finland at 49% and Japan at 44%. Together with slumps in Sweden and Spain, these are considered the "Big Five" crashes and were accompanied by banking crises, saw significant public bailouts, had fiscal costs ranging from 4% to 24% of GDP, and caused great economic damage.

On average, real house prices tended to fall about 30% and only bottomed after six years.

Interestingly, almost every country has had two busts including Canada, which also posted a 16 quarter 21% price decline in the early 1980s, the U.K., Germany and Japan.

As Goldman expects the United States to end up with a cumulative house price decline of 30% to 35% - prices are down about 11% so far - over the next 18 months, its slump looks comparable to the international experience.

"Experience elsewhere would suggest that house prices could still have a long way to fall and that the trough may be at least a couple of years away," Dominic Wilson and Raluca Dragusanu said in their report.

There are some differences however.

Nominal short-term interest rates seem to have peaked before real house prices peaked and easing began about a quarter later than the experience of other OECD busts.

U.S. equity prices have also been atypical, rising even after the initial price bust and only acknowledging the damage a year after the bust began in late 2006.

In general, equity prices tended to peak nearly two years ahead of house prices. The trough in equity prices occurred on average around five quarters after the bust began, ahead of the trough in GDP and well before the housing bust ended.

Of course there is always a chance the current U.S. bust ends up making the Big Five the Big Six crashes but Goldman does not expect so - so far.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Report optimistic on region’s job growth outlook
By Bulletin Staff Report
Published: April 21. 2008 4:00AM PST

While some areas in Central Oregon have recently seen increases in their unemployment rates, the state projects that the region will outpace the state in job growth over the next eight years.

Employment in Crook, Deschutes and Jefferson counties is expected to grow by 25 percent between 2006 and 2016, according to an Oregon Employment Department report released in January. That translates into nearly 20,900 jobs.

Employment in the state as a whole is expected to increase 14 percent, or by about 241,100 jobs, during the same period.

The Employment Department made the predictions after analyzing historical trends and changes in population and industries, along with state and national employment forecasts. The report cautions, however, that no 10-year predictions can be 100 percent accurate.

During the previous 10-year period, 1996-2006, employment in the region grew 52 percent, adding more than 28,000 jobs, the report states.

The forecast for future job growth is largely based on the assumptions that population growth will continue in the region, and that national media will continue to showcase Central Oregon as a destination for recreation.

The report points to the number of destination resorts under development and in the planning stages.

Almost half the job growth from 2006-2016 will be in the leisure and hospitality, professional and business services and retail trade industries, according to the report.

An aging population in need of health care will expand the number of jobs in the educational and health services category, the report states.

And the expanding population will need more services. The report predicts the professional and business services category, which includes jobs in call centers, law, architectural, engineering and scientific research firms, will also be one of the leaders in job growth.

Wood-product manufacturing is expected to be the one industry to see an overall decline in jobs, the report states, due to decreasing logging in the forests, increasing foreign competition and improving mechanization in the mills and plants.

Less logging in the forests also means little growth in the number of federal government jobs, according to the report.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


The report points to the number of destination resorts under development and in the planning stages.


No problem there. They will certainly all be built & occupied, 100%.

Maybe I'll get me one of those sweet call center jobs they talked about & buy me a house up in Pronghorn.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

This report is to soften us up for the impending unemployment report that promises to be heinous. Prior years in Bend:

Mar 06: 5.5%
Mar 07: 5.2%

Last month, Feb 08, was 8.3% in Bend, vs 5.7% in Feb 07.

We're supposed to believe that everything will be OK after this little "rough patch". Right.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

The market's worst is yet to come

Now that a few Wall Street folks have finally dared to utter the word 'recession' aloud, most of the rest are assuming this downturn is practically over. Expect the bulls to stumble.


By Bill Fleckenstein

This week's Contrarian Chronicles focuses on the multitrillion-dollar question on Wall Street: Has the worst been seen, or is the worst yet to be seen?

The majority of market participants find themselves in the former camp (which, regular readers know, is not where I stand). They believe that because a handful of folks have now said the word "recession," it's nearly over. As a result, they say all the bad news we see is a function of what we "already know." Thus it has been discounted and should be ignored.

Similarly, they take confidence in the fact that the stock market reached a low in January, created around the Société Générale banking panic, and retested that low as Bear Stearns (BSC, news, msgs) supposedly almost took apart the financial system (which led the Federal Reserve to create the latest alphabet soup of funding facilities).

The combination of recession, massive Fed easing and those two financial panics has encouraged the bulls to think that we now have seen all we need to see before we have a bull market. Therefore, we should buy stocks.
Problems can't last, can they?
That glib notion has arisen because of the policies pursued by the Fed and then-Chairman Alan Greenspan over the past two decades, which led to the current sad state of our bailout nation.

Bulls have been conditioned by that ride, in Pavlovian fashion, to believe that anytime there is an admission of recession or any kind of panic, it will resolve itself positively in relatively short order, if not almost instantly. (They forget that it took a little time, between 2001 and 2003, to resolve the stock bubble. But that's a minor point.)

That same class of animal also believed that as the credit bubble initially burst, in the form of the initial subprime FPDs (first payment defaults), it would be limited to subprime mortgages and thus be contained.

Everyone knows how the story went from there. I believe folks in that camp never understood that the housing bubble was the economy, which is why they are now quite sanguine.

Listening to the speakers at a recent conference hosted by Grant's Interest Rate Observer, I found that some thoughtful people remain in the it's-going-to-get-better camp because it hasn't yet gotten all that bad. Perhaps they are right, but I don't think so.

I think the better arguments are made by those who understood what the unwinding of the credit bubble meant, who understood that it wasn't just subprime, who understood that it wasn't contained -- and, armed with that knowledge, realized the ramifications of that bubble's unwinding are quite large.

Tear-downs in home prices

One such person is John Paulson, whose hedge fund made an enormous score, perhaps the biggest of all time, betting against subprime and the rest of the credit structure. His best guess, as articulated at the Grant's conference, is that when housing reaches a bottom, prices on average will be down 25% from the top, which is to say an additional 10% to 15% from where they have already fallen.

This is on average, mind you. Some locations will fare worse, others better.

If that happens, the ramifications throughout the financial system and economy will be sizable -- which, to repeat, is what I expect.

As I point out in "Greenspan's Bubbles," aside from the lift given to the economy via the stimulus that came from the money homeowners extracted from their equity, the last recovery essentially wasn't one. And, given that about 40% of the job creation in that "recovery" was related to real estate, now that this source has been drained, there's no way you're going to convince me that the recession that comes out of that will be some mild event that is manageable, contained and pretty much behind us. It just makes no sense.

The recession after the equity bubble was milder than I would have expected, but that was because it was positively impacted by the beginning of the housing bubble. This housing bubble (as I pointed out while it was under way) was destined to leave bad debts in its wake, crippling both the lender and the consumer.

Bulls still in charge (for now)

Back to the multitrillion-dollar question: From a trading standpoint, one has to be cognizant of the fact that the folks who believe everything will be OK have more votes and more money than the folks who are in the other camp. (Witness how quickly General Electric's (GE, news, msgs) pullback was forgotten as folks latched on to Intel (INTC, news, msgs) having "made a number" that had been twice reduced.)

Thus the tricky part -- for me -- is figuring out when to express, by taking short positions, the bearish view.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

As Goldman expects the United States to end up with a cumulative house price decline of 30% to 35% - prices are down about 11% so far - over the next 18 months, its slump looks comparable to the international experience.

"Experience elsewhere would suggest that house prices could still have a long way to fall and that the trough may be at least a couple of years away," Dominic Wilson and Raluca Dragusanu said in their report.


This points to Bend going down 50-60%, and the bottom being 3-4 years out...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

That Goldman report imputes a total top-to-bottom loss of about $7.5 trillion in home equity in the U.S.

Anonymous said...

"Thus the tricky part -- for me -- is figuring out when to express, by taking short positions, the bearish view."

+++

Okay, ICANTBELIEVEITSNOTBUTTER, then maybe the above quote should be part of BendBubble2 next stage. You nailed the busting of the bendbubble, no doubt.

But what have you done for us lately? Do you have the Web 2.0 version of BBubble2, titled maybe BBubble2_phase2? Maybe it can be where you call the trough or bottom? Maybe it can be how to capitalize on the bust? (Please, no pump and dump Capstone buttplugs).

All us rent-and-invest-the-difference guys (and gals) need to know where to move our goobs of cash. Into short positions, when and where? Into longs, when and where?

Anonymous said...

Hey all of you assholes just remember this!...Squirrels like bile! You assholes!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Into longs, when and where?

Pfizer (PFE), today. $20.29, 6.3% yield. Buy it, and mentally walk away for 5-6 years.

Remember, I did a post about 10 ways to make cash during the bust of Bend...

Anonymous said...

An open letter to all from buster.

Saturday, March 22, 2008
5 Things Bendites Should Do Now

As they say in Alcoholics Anonymous,

"God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the - difference."



Above click on "Bend Economy" BEM, last month, 30 days exactly BEM published "How to Fix Bend".

This is what we should be discussing, the upside, the down is over. It's Over, its going to take years for Bend to recover. In the meantime we need to stop government spending on PR&MARKETING. 90% of BEM's proposals are good. This is what we should be discussing.

I have been demanding this for months, and BEM picked up the ball. Not one of you fuckers even read BEM's proposals. But what do you expect from a bunch of lazy retarded renters?? Like you think they actually care about Bend??

Everyone knows that Bend is toxic #1 shit-hole in the land, and headed back to 1998 Medians ( $120k ). It's a dead story.

Now we need to only focus on the future and cleaning this fucking town.

Homer, Bruce-Pussy, ... Nobody gives a FUCK in this forum about Bend except buster, marge, dunc, and Bem; Everyone else is a fucking dumb renter-loser-moron.

So there's the challenge. It's never been a better time to buy ( truly you can get 2002 medians today if you lowball ). So dumb fucking renters, buy or leave.

99% of all RE blogs like this are composed of lazy out of the loop renters. You can go to any site and get the same shit anytime.

Read BEM's proposals. Homer re-publish them, and focus on the future.

We're 2-3 years away from the physical bottom of the Bend Bust, but intellectually we're ready for the recovery. If your all so fucking smart then get with the program. Nobody wants to be reading or talking about man-twats in 2-3 years.

Homer quit wasting your fucking time. Leave or help make this a better place.

The microscopic analysis of when and why Bruce-Pussy's wife changes his kotex is nauseating. We must focus on fixing Bend. BEM through the ball, and NOT a one of you dumb fucking renters even picked up the ball.

Even Duncan, while I have begged for over a year that he focus on his business, still blogs daily, he too could focus on fixing Bend, rather than writing the same insipid shit every fucking day, over & over. For dunc, everyday is ground-hog day.

This blogging is like 1970's CB-Radio, in a few years it will long be forgotten, and you'll all have found a new hobby.

If you care about Bend then help fix it, otherwise leave. I remember over a year ago when I got involved in this forum, the first question I asked was "Who is staying, and who is leaving", and to date, its the exact same. Not one fucking change.

Human nature doesn't change, man-twats will always be man-twats, so pleeeeeze take you bruce-pussy's to another town, and let us get this place fixed.

When I say 'bruce-pussy' I'm talking about this type, they are city-hall, and city-staff, they're all a bunch of bruce-pussy's, the only difference is rather than living off their cave-troll mormRon wife, they live off our government. Bruce is just an example of the man-twats. He can spend every day fussing with cap-stone butt-plugs because his wife supports him, and same for our government staff/electables, they too can play with their man-twats at our expense.

buster

Anonymous said...

BEGIN TRANSCRIPT

RUSH: Here's Brent in Ohio. I'm glad you waited, sir. You're next on the EIB Network. Hello.

PAUL: Hello, Rush. Mega erudite dittos.

RUSH: Thank you.

PAUL: I just want to call and tip my hat to you. I mean, to call the president of the United States to say thank you, and have him return your call, I mean, that puts you in very rarefied air, and it's a testament to your parents, your upbringing, and your hard work, and, you know, in American history and American folklore, especially the number of times you've been mentioned on the congressional floor and in the mainstream media, you're right up there with Will Rogers, Edward R. Murrow, and so on and so forth. But anyway, the main reason of my call is I've had the luxury of time in the last six months to do a lot of reading, and I've read a lot about William F. Buckley. And I was thinking back -- I'm about seven years younger than you, and I first voted in 1976. From '76 until '80 is what I call the wilderness years, because, as conservatives, all we had was the National Review, Firing Line, and the weekly address by Ronald Reagan. And I noticed that some of your younger calls, they sort of don't appreciate how good we have it now with you, just the mere fact that your name is brought up everywhere. I was just wondering if you'd take some time and sort of tell your younger listeners what those years were like, '76 'til 1980.

RUSH: Yeah, you know, that's a good point. Even before that, I mean, if you go back to 1964, prior to that, the Goldwater election, which really was the birth of Ronald Reagan when you get right down it.

PAUL: Exactly.

RUSH: Those early years, they were dark but they were exciting because it was new and it was intellectually energetic. I know you've heard some of the college students that call here and others who are complaining. Their point of reference, you know, most people's historical perspective begins with the day they were born, maybe when they're five years old, their first memory. They have to study to know what happened prior to that.

PAUL: Correct.

RUSH: But they know what happened since they've been born, and so they're comparing what they see as the circumstances into which they're born, a powerful liberal media, a Democrat Party aligned with the media, they are seeing genuine reprobates attain power in the Democrat Party. They are seeing the American people buy into full-fledged hoaxes, such as global warming, and they're wondering, how can this be? They're worried really about the overall intelligence and ability to learn of the American people. They don't understand how this stuff can so easily be sold, and that's what they're complaining about. Every college professor they run into is a socialist who hates the country, and they don't understand that, and so it would be wise to tell these young people how far we have progressed versus where we were those four years that you mentioned. You left out that Jimmy Carter was the president then, and that didn't help.

PAUL: Exactly. That was the worst.

RUSH: We had a misery index to tell ourselves how bad it was.

PAUL: Yeah, and he was scolding us for his problems.

RUSH: Precisely.

PAUL: Yeah. It's just amazing that conservatives tend to be of good cheer. I've read about that about William F. Buckley, of you, of course. And the liberals are just so pensive and so angry at everything. Do they ever laugh at a nonpolitical joke?

RUSH: I don't think they're ever happy. By definition, they can't be. The worldview through a pair of eyes in a liberal skull is pretty bad, because they're seeking perfection, and anything that's short of perfection makes them mad, it depresses them and so forth, and they see things through a different lens. But by definition, liberals can't be happy.

PAUL: Yeah. This is not the United States of utopia, it's the United States of America.

RUSH: No.

PAUL: We try to form a more perfect union.

RUSH: And don't forget who the primary enemies of liberals are, anybody successful, independent of government.

PAUL: That's correct.

RUSH: US corporations, individuals who have not used liberal prescriptions in order to attain their success in life. They hate anything like a religion that proscribes boundaries and black and white, look at what's right and what's wrong.

PAUL: Exactly.

RUSH: And of course this week we've featured the vicar of Christ in town in the country for a week, and they have seen thousands and thousands show up to worship with the vicar of Christ. That makes 'em mad.

PAUL: Yeah.

RUSH: A couple of military jets flying over the Super Bowl will make 'em mad because that's the military. They can't even go to the Super Bowl without being happy.

PAUL: Or the Blue Angels.

RUSH: Oh, that's just a waste of precious --

PAUL: Yeah. Well, Rush, just so you know, there's millions of us who consider you part of our family, and thank you for all you've done.

RUSH: Thank you, sir. I appreciate your call.

END TRANSCRIPT

Duncan McGeary said...

"Even Duncan, while I have begged for over a year that he focus on his business, still blogs daily, he too could focus on fixing Bend, rather than writing the same insipid shit every fucking day, over & over. For dunc, everyday is ground-hog day."

Another belly laugh.

Solutions? How the hell do I know? I'm just trying to survive this shitfest.

Anonymous said...

Classic quotes by Willits in the middle... gotta love that Sisters Country!!



==========
Two teens' arrests led to four more suspects

By Jennifer Burns and Barney Lerten, KTVZ.COM

Four more juveniles, 12 to 15, have been arrested in a string of a half-dozen burglaries around Sisters in recent weeks, bringing the total number to six, Deschutes County sheriff's deputies said Sunday.


Two 15-year-olds were arrested Thursday and charged with burglaries earlier in the week at Sisters Video, 413 W. Hood Ave. and Bambuumi, an Asian imported goods store at 170 W. Cascade Ave.

That led to sheriff's officers identifying more suspects in recent days in related burglaries that began in late March, according to a news release from Deputy Dustin Miller, Sisters School Resource Deputy Don Pray and Sgt. Chad Davis.

The other crimes occurred at the offices of Wolftree Central Oregon, a science education non-profit at 170 W. Cascade Ave. No. 7; rental Cabin 31 at the Five Pine Lodge, and homes at 446 E. Jefferson St. and 555 E. Washington Ave., officers said.

Police were tipped off to the burglary suspects when a truancy officer asked the kids why they were missing so much school.

The six youths have been lodged at the county's Juvenile Detention Center on multiple felony and misdemeanor burglary, theft and criminal mischief charges, deputies said.

"The juveniles all knew each other and participated together and separately to commit these burglaries," officers said in Sunday's updated release.

More than $2,600 worth of property stolen from Sisters Video and Wolftree has been recovered so far, the deputies said, adding that the case remains under investigation.

Lodge owner Bill Willitts said Sunday he believes the kids just made a wrong choice, and hopes they learn from it.

"We believe we don't have bad kids here in the Sisters community," he said. "We just need to work as a community to convince these kids of what they did."

The youths attempted to break into one of the Five Pine cabins not once, but twice. The first time, they tried to cut away at a screen in a cabin a guest was staying in.

Willitts says the guest was shaken up.

"We tried to explain to her she's in Sisters Country and generally safe," Willitts said.

Willitts says staff found the screen cut a second time and some damage to the window.

He thinks the suspects were probably trying to steal the Plasma TV inside.

"It's just not good for our tourist-based community to have young vandals running around," he said.

Bambuumi owner Elizabeth Hasskamp says she knew something was wrong when she walked around the corner and saw the window open.

"This shelf was broken, all the candles were on the floor," she said. "They got through right here."

She says the suspects stole clothing and cash in the register.

"In six years we've never been broken into," Hasskamp said.

Wolftree Central Oregon, located just above Hasskamp's store, also was burglarized. Police say the youths got away with two big-ticket items, a computer monitor and a camera.

They also targeted a home in the backyard of another residence where many of the stolen items were recovered.

Anyone with information about the burglaries is urged to contact the sheriff's office at (541) 693-6911.

foz said...

>>>If you care about Bend then help fix it, otherwise leave. I remember over a year ago when I got involved in this forum, the first question I asked was "Who is staying, and who is leaving", and to date, its the exact same. Not one fucking change.<<<

Not exactly true. I left. Because Bend is a long ways from being fixed. Slam renters all you want but you are lucky there are renters out there or else you'd be living in a ghost town, or at the very least way more fucked then you already are.

Anonymous said...

\\|//

Horizon cutting one of two RDM-LAX non-stops
Posted: April 22, 2008 04:34 AM

'We need to fill planes,' airline spokeswoman says

By Barney Lerten, KTVZ.COM

Horizon Air will drop one of two non-stop flights between Redmond and Los Angeles on June 24, replacing early-morning and evening flights with midday flights more suitable for vacation travelers, the airline said Monday.

At present, one non-stop flight to LAX leaves Roberts Field at 6 a.m. and another leaves at 6:05 p.m., said Horizon spokeswoman Jen Boyer in Seattle. They will be replaced by one that leaves at 10:50 a.m. and arrives at LAX at 1:20 p.m., with a Los Angeles flight leaving at 9:10 a.m. and arriving at 11:30 a.m.

The same 74-seat Q400 turboprops will be used on the new, single non-stops, she said.

"The two (flights) were not sustained enough to afford to continue to operate," Boyer told KTVZ.COM. "We really need to fill these planes to make ends meet." She noted that oil hit a record $117 a barrel Monday.

The twice-daily non-stops to LAX began Aug. 1, 2007 and were announced at an Economic Development for Central Oregon luncheon that February.

"We've picked a better time for people coming up on vacation," Boyer said, "First, they get to LA after all the morning traffic, and get in in time to check in to their hotel."

"Even after June 24, we'll still be operating 11 flights a day out of Redmond," she added.

timothy said...

>>This blogging is like 1970's CB-Radio, in a few years it will long be forgotten, and you'll all have found a new hobby.

Uh. Breaker. Breaker.

I'm not quite ready to buy a house yet, but every time you mention CB radios I get a madly sharp twinge of desire to pick one up.

I want a old skool model with wood paneling and red LED channel display. I don't care who makes it, but the manufacturer's name should be written in a slanted 70's retro script.

Duncan McGeary said...

Wait, haven't they been touting the great 'boarding' numbers at the airport as a sign of vitality?

Anonymous said...

Love the BendBroadBand joke...

By the time you guys decide we've hit bottom, my house will probably be paid off. I really don't care either way, except if it gets low enough I might buy a second place and rent it out.

bruce said...

Re: PAUL: Hello, Rush. Mega erudite dittos.

RUSH: Thank you.

PAUL: I just want to call and tip my hat to you. I mean, to call the president of the United States to say thank you, and have him return your call, I mean, that puts you in very rarefied air, and it's a testament to your parents, your upbringing, and your hard work, and, you know, in American history and American folklore, especially the number of times you've been mentioned on the congressional floor and in the mainstream media, you're right up there with Will Rogers, Edward R. Murrow, and so on and so forth

...


President Bush just did an appearance on Deal-No Deal.

Just saying, you know.

bruce said...

"Barney Lerten"

Now is that a name, or is that a name!

And the guy seems to be on top of shit, most of the time.

Anonymous said...

Horizon cutting one of two RDM-LAX non-stops
Posted: April 22, 2008 04:34 AM

'We need to fill planes,' airline spokeswoman says

*

Sounds like 'ex-lax', but we call it rmd-lax, and you wonder why they can't sell it out?

What happened to all the rich that wanted to golf at Pronghorn??

Another fucking Bend my, but gone.

bruce said...

Buster, I moved here with the intention of living here for at least 20 years. That being the time I spent in my last two locations. Yes, I do travel, unlike you, and yes, I have lived in both a smaller city with a healthy university and a growing resort area.

Hang your pussy bullshit on whatever you want.

Just saying.

So perhaps you could provide a link to that post that would fix Bend. I looked for it, and it's almost like BEM deleted it. I know it was there, I commented about how we might be able to divert some of the tourism advertising money (70% of the motel tax must be spent on tourism by law) to making the place the tourists see better.

You know, by maybe filling the potholes in the roundabout in front of Cascade Brewing? Rather than just putting a couple of orange cones up to warn tourists?

Come on, Buster, link that list. It was a great start.

Anonymous said...

"We believe we don't have bad kids here in the Sisters community," he said. "We just need to work as a community to convince these kids of what they did."

*

Just remove the video stores, and then once again the good kids of Sisters will be good kids. Hell I remember when Sisters was all trailer parks.

There was nothing to steal, but trailers, and they were all filled with folks with double-00 buck shotguns.

Keep kids in Sisters honest, make sure there is nothing worth stealing.

Anonymous said...

Hang your pussy bullshit on whatever you want.

- bruce 'cunt' pussy, aka man-twat, .e.g. alan-alda dry gulcher @ large

*

Hey big guy, your not the ONLY fucking man-twat in Bend, like I have said 80% of BEND is man-twats, your just our primary man-twat in this forum, and timmy-twat is runner up.

Abernethy ( mayor ) Freidman, Costa, HBM, ... ALL man twat's everyone running this city is a man-twat in 'public'. Behind the scenes the town is ran by Hollern, Borgman, Hap-Taylor, NOT man-twats.

Man twats are cheap in Bend, a dime a fucking dozen.

YOU bruce-pussy are NOT the biggest MAN-TWAT in Bend, just another fucking man-twat in Bend. In cali, and I guess in UTAH they fucking grow them like weeds, and for some fucking reason they drift here.

You say your in for fucking 20 years, ... your fucking full of fucking shit. Your a man-twat. Your our 80%. You'll be gone within two years. I bet Homer's burrito.

Homer calls them 'amenity-parasites', I call them 'parasites' or parasitic-electorate. Man-Twats are parasites. Bend is the fucking desert.

The thing is BRUCE-PUSSY and ALL other man-twats in this forum, this is the fucking desert. Man-Twats cannot survive in the desert, eventually your host to which you have sucked the blood clear will die, or kick you out of the fucking house, and you'll be back in UTAH.

Anonymous said...

So perhaps you could provide a link to that post that would fix Bend. I looked for it, and it's almost like BEM deleted it. I know it was there ...

*

http://bendoregonbubble.blogspot.com/

Bruce-Pussy, I think its time for a nap, and its time for your wife to wipe your ass, pay the bills, and put you to sleep.

Anonymous said...

Ouch... that spanking was so harsh, even MY ass hurts!

YeeeHaw.

Anonymous said...

sweet sweet buster love...i need some vagasil for my man twat.

bruce said...

Buster, had my nap and realized the error of my search--I was at the old bendbubble blog, not BEM's new one.

Anyway, here's the list, so we can all read it and comment on it:

What can Bend do now? Well, maybe we should put the question a little differently: what should people do when they're stuck in the middle of nowhere with no money? The answer is to protect their own interests, make their little corner of the world the best possible place to live, and band together to prevent outsiders from coming and taking their stuff. Because life's not going to get easier around here for a while.

1. RAISE TAXES. That's right. Bend needs money. For deferred infrastructure and maintenance, for police and other essential services, for schools, for public transit. Revenues are already down, but the big whammy's yet to come: reduced property tax assessments due to falling property values. Bend needs to resist the urge to cut taxes, and actually needs to increase revenue this year and going forward.

2. INCREASE FUNDING FOR ESSENTIAL SERVICES AND PARKS. Especially police. Bend needs to regain its reputation as a safe, relatively drug-free, violent crime-free town if it's going to keep residents and attract new ones. What's the point of living in a small town if you can get carjacked in the Costco parking lot, same as Compton? And parks too. There's no point in living in small-town Oregon if there's no place to push a stroller or walk a dog.

3. SUSPEND MASTER-PLANNED PROJECTS. Forget about Juniper Ridge. Forget about the Third Street Corridor. Pay off whoever's owed, terminate the consultants' contracts, stop buying new land, stop land grants, stop all city-funded development activity. No more Lava Court or whatever it's called. Keep the land for the future (a university, for example) or sell it to the private sector at market prices, with restrictions if necessary. Maybe in other cities, the local authorities have the vision and competence to carry out big-concept projects. Not in Bend.

4. CUT THE DESTINATION RESORTS LOOSE. No matter what they say in public, not one of these destination resort subdivisions around here is "penciling out" the way its sponsors thought it would. Soon the destination resorts will come calling to city and/or county and/or state governments asking for property tax breaks, regulatory exemptions and other goodies, and they should be told "NO." I'm not an anti-destination resort activist. Some say that their drain on services and infrastructure exceeds their economic benefit. But let's assume for sake of argument that they create jobs and are generally a net benefit to neighboring communities. It doesn't matter - they don't deserve a handout. They should be treated like any other business. Either destination resorts make economic sense or they don't. In a county where almost every business besides Trader Joe's is hunkering down for tough times, 5,000 homeless people are living in the woods, the desert, motels, vacant homes and the streets, and 19% of the population (including kids) has no health insurance, luxury golf course developments don't deserve any subsidies or breaks. And making them nicer does almost nothing to make Bend or other Central Oregon communities nicer.

5. LOBBY FOR A FOUR-YEAR UNIVERSITY. And don't let up! The best way to secure Bend's future is to get a 4-year university here. Natural resources is gone. Real estate is gone. But Bend is an excellent candidate for a 4-year school. OK, so far it hasn't worked out. But that's because these fool good-old-boy local business interests have been put front-and-center. Bad idea. Those guys' money should be welcome in the effort, but all these fat, white local artifacts should be kept safely out of sight when we're selling this area as a site for a new 4-year university. It might take another 5 or 10 years. It might take longer. But it makes sense. Bend would be a great college town. We just need the right people to plan our approach and the whole community needs to be on board, like what happened in Merced.


For starters, before raising taxes we have to raise SDC's and permits to the point where new development is paying for itself. This seemingly simple thing would pretty much solve our "structural" deficit, since that is what caused it in the first place.

bruce said...

Excellent series on housing crisis in Minnesota (yeah, I know Bend is special...) at a real paper, the Star Tribune. The third part is today.

http://www.startribune.com/local/west/17989859.html

Part 3: Suburbs stuck with empty houses are trying to figure out what to do now

Wright County welcomed growth with new schools and wide roads. But as half-built subdivisions lie fallow, it's paying the price. Officials are scrambling to revitalize neighborhoods that have fallen into decline just years after they were built.


An hour after the Otsego City Hall has officially closed for the evening, a dozen City Council members and administrators work overtime, struggling to find solutions to a new and unexpected menace: vacant houses.

In this once fast-growing city of 11,000 people, about 30 miles northwest of the Twin Cities, there are 138 empty homes, spread throughout the city's newer subdivisions. In one subdivision more than half the homes are vacant, and many are in foreclosure.

Hunched over largely uneaten pizza, city officials ask questions that can't readily be answered. How should empty homes be monitored? Should the city turn off the water to prevent freezing pipes? How can criminals be kept out?

Few in Wright County ever expected the housing market downturn to be so ugly. Problems once associated with inner-city blight have arrived here with little advance warning, and officials are scrambling to revitalize neighborhoods that have fallen into decline just years after they were built.

Wright County, which welcomed the growth, and in some areas did little to control it, is now paying the price. Housing values are declining at a time when many local governments are in the midst of building new schools and roads and expanding waste-water treatment plants. And vacant homes and half-built subdivisions do little to attract employers or shops that might help turn things around.

Foreclosed homes affect more than the owners of those properties and their lenders. In Minnesota, where one in 40 houses is projected to go into foreclosure in the next two years, homes within an eighth of a mile of a foreclosed property are set to lose an average $4,129 in value, according to a report released last week by the Pew Charitable Trust.

Losses attributable to foreclosures and property-value declines will trim $2.3 billion from Minnesota's state and local tax base. But the total cost of foreclosed and vacant homes is much higher.

Kil Huh, the Pew Center's research manager, said that in Chicago a single foreclosed property can set the community back up to $30,000 in police, fire and code-enforcement costs.

"It's a race against time," Huh said. "It not only hurts families that are in danger of being foreclosed upon, but communities, as well."

Tax tremors

Until recently, local governments in Wright County have been large beneficiaries of the explosive housing growth. The county's overall property tax revenue nearly doubled to a projected $46.3 million in 2008 from $24.9 million in 2003. Last year, residential properties accounted for nearly 60 percent of that figure.

In Montrose, a city of 2,500, the assessed value of agricultural land plunged 28 percent last year, in large part because fewer developers are buying farmland for subdivisions. In both Otsego and St. Michael, agricultural land values also posted double-digit declines last year.

The full impact of the slumping values on local government budgets won't be known for another year or so, when tax assessments catch up with the decline in housing prices. A Wright County commissioner, Dick Mattson, has proposed a hiring freeze.

Elmer Eichelberg, another Wright County commissioner, said: "We might need a meeting of the minds and figure out a way to cut costs."

Some areas are already feeling a budget squeeze. In Buffalo, the county seat, city officials are grappling with how to pay for the $17 million in bonds issued to pay for the expansion of their waste-water treatment plant. The bonds were to be financed partly from fees assessed from the construction of new houses.

But the city's initial forecasts were wildly off the mark. Just 35 new houses were built in Buffalo last year -- compared with a projected 65 -- and none has been constructed in the city so far this year. Buffalo has already refinanced the bonds and raised sewer and water fees by 5.5 percent to make up for the lost income.

Also in Buffalo, the county is spending $52 million on a jail and law-enforcement center on 89 acres of undeveloped land. It's a project funded, in large part, by bonds backed by property tax revenue that could slide along with housing prices.

"It should have been obvious there was a problem, when developers kept building and building and building, in spite of the fact that many of their houses weren't being sold," said Fred Naaktgeboren, mayor of Buffalo. "A lot of people wanted to believe everything was all right."

Stealing the kitchen sink

Twenty-three houses a week, on average, are falling into foreclosure in Wright County. While break-ins at abandoned houses are rare, Wright County police said burglars have ripped out appliances and even fireplaces from vacant houses.

"We've had cases where they've stolen everything -- including, literally, the kitchen sink," said Brian Johnson, a sergeant in the Wright County Sheriff's Office.

Some lenders that own foreclosed houses are headquartered in warmer regions where winterizing a house is an unfamiliar concept. Requests to shut off water are often ignored. This winter, 17 vacant houses in Otsego flooded when frozen water pipes burst.

Overgrown lawns are another nuisance. In Buffalo, the city expects to spend $12,000 to $15,000 this year on unkept lawns in developments like Rodeo Hills. The city charges $120 each time it cuts a lawn, but collecting fees on foreclosed homes can be impossible.

Monticello -- where officials estimate 25 to 30 percent of homes for sale are vacant -- is using officials who used to inspect new houses to monitor vacant properties to make sure they're maintained. The city is so concerned they've formed a housing committee to try to get families into the city's growing number of unoccupied houses -- a move intended to help make the community more attractive to prospective employers.

"Companies want to come to communities with a good work force and having a high foreclosure rates is not necessarily good for a community," said Bob Viering, president of the First Minnesota Bank office in Monticello and a commissioner of the Monticello Economic Development Authority.

Limiting growth

Some communities put the brakes on new development in time to avoid many of the troubles that ailed others. For example, St. Michael, concerned that rapid growth was taxing infrastructure and leading to crowded classrooms, began slowing development. It limited the expansion of municipal sewer and water lines and turned down developers' requests to build more homes.

Construction peaked in 2002 -- three years before neighboring communities -- when the city issued 430 building permits. Last year they issued just 55.

"At the time, I thought it was unfortunate we didn't open up more land for development," said Bob Derus, St. Michael's city administrator. "We would have had more foreclosures, a bad budget and more layoffs." Foreclosures aren't rampant or concentrated in St. Michael, and Derus says the city isn't saddled with an overhang of unsold lots or homes.

But in many Wright County communities, the rapid suburbanization was largely uncontrolled, and the changes to the county's once-rural landscape are permanent.

Six years ago, Kent Maehling and his family sold their 114-acre farm in Buffalo. Maehling's farm included one of the most scenic spots in all of Wright County -- a high ridge overlooking Buffalo Lake and the city's historic downtown. When Maehling owned it, the ridge's seven hills gently rolled from one to the other and deer ran in the meadow below. "It was as peaceful as you can imagine," said Maehling, a 59-year-old production worker.

But a developer's construction crews bulldozed the tops off the hills to make room for a new subdivision called Sundance Ridge. The changed landscape wouldn't bother Maehling so much if families were living in all the houses. But many of the newer homes are vacant.

"I don't like to see people losing their place, no matter where it is," Maehling said as he walked along the flattened ridge. "But it hurts more because I know how beautiful it used to be."

bruce said...

Another thing to do that will save money is simply slowing down capital projects, such as new sewers, the upgrade at the waste treatment plant, etc.

timothy said...

Bend WOULD be a great place for a 4-year college. I agree. Getting the kids home at Christmas could be a bit of a trick some years. We have had sad cases of kids dying on the passes, and that's just our kids going to valley schools.

We won't have one for a long time because of the ridiculous dorking around with Juniper Ridge. The University should be at Old Mill, obviously, since that's got the view kids and parents want, and it's just a couple blocks away from Century. All that kid & parent ski money could really help our tourism without begging people to come. It's the only way I see for us not to be a fad that waxes and wanes.

timothy said...

Who is the first butthole who conceived of a college at Juniper Ridge, anyhow? Imagine you're a parent and you come to Bend with your kid. What does a college at Juniper Ridge look like? View of shopping center, highway, and Les Schwab, and a horizon of scrub? Fucking amazing idea.

Versus a college on the river with great stuff all around. Easy walks to Farewell Bend, Mirror Pond. Reasonable walk to downtown.

How the fuck did we get so damned ridiculous that the obvious solution eludes us?

Duncan McGeary said...

Have we become so inured that we let a 2% drop in housing sales go unnoticed.

I know, I know. I'm always saying it YoY that counts, but still...

Serious question: has there EVER been a drop in sales between Feb. and March?

Anonymous said...

The Oregon State University - Cascades campus offers 20 different Bachelor of Science degrees, including:

Art
Business
General science
General social science
Human Development and Family Sciences
Liberal studies
Mathematics
Natural Resources
Psychology
Tourism and Outdoor Leadership

Each Bachelor degree is offered either by Oregon State University or the University of Oregon.

OSU-Cascades has small class sizes, one-on-one mentoring by world-class faculty, and creative course delivery methods, all of which make for a dynamic learning experience.

Please visit this web site for more information:

www.osucascades.edu

timothy said...

>>www.osucascades.edu

Can't find the page on that site that shows the dorms. Help?

LavaBear said...

>>Can't find the page on that site that shows the dorms. Help?

I found it:

http://bend.craigslist.org/apa/

LavaBear said...

http://www.housingnorthwest.org/studenthousing/cocc/index.asp

Cock and OSUC share.

Anonymous said...

OSU and UO together have 300 years of educational excellence to share with OSU-Cascade campus students.

OSU-Cascades has many housing alternatives, including a dorm, which is now a less preferred mode of student living.

ON-CAMPUS HOUSING
Juniper Hall, located on the Cascades Campus, is available for OSU-Cascades students.

Off-campus housing is available in many forms, all of which are considered by today's students to be cooler than dorm living:

1. Apartments

2. Quads - Two houses joined together at one of the outer walls.

3. Condominiums - Similar to apartments, but each unit is privately owned.

4. Houses

The campus is well connected by Bend-are transit from many parts of the city.

Anonymous said...

OSU Cascades will continue to grow and will eventually morph into a 4 year university on the butte. No way will there be a university on the river in the Old Mill.

Anonymous said...

Has Bruce-pussy been teaching his ways over in Sisters?

From the NuggetNews:

Sisters youth charged with rape
A 16-year-old Sisters youth has been charged with rape in connection with an incident that occurred last February 6, at SOAR (Sisters Organization for Activities and Recreation).

The 16-year-old male was charged as an adult. The alleged victim is a 12-year-old girl. According to Deputy District Attorney Brentley Foster, the 16-year-old has been charged with: one count of sodomy in the first degree; one count of rape in the first degree; three counts of sex abuse in the first degree; one count of sodomy in the second degree; and one count of rape in the second degree.

All counts are felonies and carry mandatory prison sentences.

According to Foster, the 16-year-old is "currently indicted as an adult." It is not clear yet whether he will actually be tried as an adult.

Foster declined to discuss any details of the case, citing its sensitive nature. SOAR officials also declined to comment, citing the constraints of the ongoing investigation. However, they did indicate that they do not believe the incident reflects a security problem at SOAR.

The alleged perpetrator was in custody briefly in March and was released by a judge on March 18.

The alleged perpetrator was scheduled for a court hearing on April 21, but that hearing was expected to be continued.

Editor's note: The Nugget does not identify victims of sex crimes.

This paper does identify juvenile offenders who are charged as adults with felony crimes. However, because it is not clear yet whether the 16-year-old alleged perpetrator will be tried as an adult, The Nugget will not identify him at this time.

Anonymous said...

Stay on topic, dammit:

"Debating the Bend Oregon Real Estate bubble, its implications for Bend residents, businesses, and the economic outlook for this area."

timothy said...

Gold Leader: It's no good, I can't maneuver!
Gold Five: Stay on target.
Gold Leader: *We're too close!*
Gold Five: Stay on target!

bruce said...

Let me throw a real choice nugget at you: in my SDC research I've learned that Ashland has a 4% restuarant tax that they use to pay for treatment plant upgrades (actually 3% for that, and 1% for open space purchases).

One of our biggest upcoming costs, next to roads, is sewer lines and treatment plant upgrades. I toured the facility this spring, and the amount of grease put out by the restuarants literally is seen by the fact that after all the treatment, three different levels IIRC, there is still a ring of fat nodules on the resevoir of water exiting the treatment plant. A lot goes to Pronghorn, who spent something like $10 million building a facility to take the treated water and pump it up to their golf course.

Why not create a 2% or 3% restaurant tax here? Most of it will be paid by tourists, as according to COVA they spend about $100M in restaurants annually. It will prevent raids of the general fund for public works improvements that are not paid for by the too low SDC's. And maybe we could even use a portion to create a waste cooking oil recycling system that would reduce the impact on the treatment plant and even create a source of revenue by partnering with one of the local biodiesel firms.

Flamesuit on

dartagnan said...

From The Economist print edition
Why conservatives are happier than liberals


In my observation, conservatives are better than liberals at deluding themselves; thus it's easier for them to persuade themselves that they are living in the best of all possible world.

timothy said...

Today the guy who runs Coldwell Banker was on CNBC with Maria. He complained and whined about media coverage. The media's not getting across the message to people that Real Estate is local.

I hate that "RE is local" crap. Sure it is, but we just came out of a run up where manic RE investors went all over the country and bid up all the real estate they could find. And the credit crunch that affects loans is most assuredly NOT local.

We're not having a RE slump. We're having a super-duper credit RE slump. You can't play your "RE is local" card in this game. It's like trying to go out with "gin" in crazy eights.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Horizon cutting one of two RDM-LAX non-stops

Second leg of a 2 legged stool collapsing.

the manufacturer's name should be written in a slanted 70's retro script.

A sweet ass COBRA! Yes! Them are nice.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Nobody mentioned the absolutely HEINOUS unemployment figures for Bend for March:

7.9%!

My God, last year was 5.2%! Over 50% HIGHER! And only up .3% from Feb's horrendous 8.2%

My Lord, that is just death. Jeff County actually had HIGHER unemployment, busting into the double digits. First time that's happened in MANY MANY YEARS.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And only up .3% from Feb's horrendous 8.2%

That's down.

That always screws me up, where down is good.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

marge, you got any Month to date stats...?

How's Apr look?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

'Americans say jobs key to keep home'

"There is definitely a lot of pressure and stress on American households right now," said Alan Steel, general manager of AOL Real Estate. Thirty percent of respondents said they know someone who has gone through or is being forced to sell their home due to a foreclosure. "In this environment too many people are passive and maybe deny things, but with all the headlines these days everyone should get really smart about their own situation and figure out what they can do," Steel said. Despite the headlines about housing troubles, 31 percent of respondents believe their homes are worth more than they were a year ago and 56 percent do not think their home will be worth less in five years.

This optimism continues, with 69 percent of Americans seeing real estate as a viable investment. If forced to sell their home today, half would buy another home rather than rent. They also would also prefer to use their computers when house shopping, with 67 percent turning to the Internet first when looking for a home. For those not interested in selling or purchasing a home this year, 16 percent said they were planning a major home remodeling project.

Interviews for the AOL Real Estate-Zogby International survey were conducted among a national sample of 6,678 adults ages 18 and older, conducted Feb. 15-18. Members of the online Internet panel were recruited by Zogby. The margin of error is plus or minus 1.2 percentage points.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Love the BendBroadBand joke...

Thanks!

Finally, someone who appreciates topical hilarity.

IT'S TOPICAL!

Rub it on your fuckin' buttcheeks to get rid of your cottage cheese ass.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Looks like The Bulletin's selling their Hermiston paper... The Herald.

timothy said...

>>This optimism continues, with 69 percent of Americans seeing real estate as a viable investment. If forced to sell their home today, half would buy another home rather than rent.

That means we still have a long way down to go. Won't go back up until people hate real estate.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Bank of America nixes Countrywide's subprime, option ARM loans

Bank of America Corp., the second largest bank in Middle Tennessee, says it will implement new lending guidelines in its consumer mortgage business after it acquires Countrywide Financial Corp.

BofA says it will continue its policy of not originating subprime mortgages. Following the merger, the combined mortgage operation will discontinue nontraditional mortgages for which monthly payments may not cover all interest and will curtail low-documentation loans.

BofA also will limit prepayment penalties as well as interest-only and hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages.

"We think it's important to clearly explain the changes in mortgage lending practices once we operate as a combined company," says Bruce Hammonds, global consumer credit executive at BofA in a release. "We recognize this tightening, by definition, restricts the availability of credit to some borrowers. However, this will help ensure that those who get loans can afford to repay them."

Additionally, the Bank of America Charitable Foundation and Countrywide plan to provide $35 million in grants and low-cost loans to assist local and national nonprofits engaged in foreclosure prevention, and to purchase vacant single-family homes for neighborhood stabilization.

Charlotte-based BofA (NYSE:BAC) announced in early January it would buy Countrywide (NYSE:CFC) in an all-stock transaction worth about $4 billion.

Later that month, California-based Countrywide said 33.64 percent of its subprime mortgages were delinquent at the end of 2007. That was up from 29.08 percent in September and 21.22 percent in December 2006.

In August, BofA invested $2 billion in Countrywide, the country's largest mortgage lender. BofA's investment came in the form of a nonvoting convertible preferred security yielding 7.25 percent annually. The security can be converted into 16 percent of Countrywide's common stock.

At that time, Countrywide's stock price was falling amid concerns about its exposure to the subprime-mortgage market. Since then, that market has deteriorated, and Countrywide has fought off rumors of bankruptcy.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Looks like The Bulletin's selling their Hermiston paper... The Herald.


Hmmm... that's WesCom selling.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


That means we still have a long way down to go. Won't go back up until people hate real estate.


I think we'll know it's over when they stop asking people questions that implicitly assume their homes are money-making vehicles.

When the idea that purchasing a home for the monetary rewards becomes sort of strange.... that's when you buy.

LavaBear said...

If forced to sell their home today, half would buy another home rather than rent.

If they were truly forced to sell today, 98% of that 50% would realize they are screwed and would reconsider.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

A brand new look for The Riverhouse

The Riverhouse seeks to attract more group and conference travelers, who ultimately benefit Central Oregon’s estimated $542.5 million tourism economy by spreading out their spending when they visit the region, said Doug LaPlaca, president and CEO of the Bend Visitor & Convention Center, which promotes tourism for the city of Bend.

Woo Hoo! It's Gone!

RIP BEND'S $498 MILLION SURGICAL PRECISION TOURIST ECONOMY!

Remember folks: That $542.5 MILLION MUST be dead accurate cuz of that POINT FIVE in there. They WOULD NOT have put that in there unless they knew it to the cent. It should be more accurately printed thusly:

$542,500,000.00

Cuz they KNOW IT TO THE PENNY.

We also KNOW tourist spending is WAY UP, cuz Bachelor is DOWN this past season.

Anonymous said...

RE: cooking oil recycling


In the best of all worlds, maybe there'd be a tube into which you pour the cooking grease and this would lead straight to you bio-diesel powered car. Wow -- an incentive to eat more fries and burgers at home.

Marge said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Marge said...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
marge, you got any Month to date stats...?

How's Apr look?

As of 4/23/08
51 Sold @ $270k Med

Same period in March 08
67 Sold @ 293k Med

Same period Apr 07
106 Sold @ 349,500

Could be the 1st time ever that sales in April were not higher than March.

timothy said...

So Marge, basically grinding to a halt.

Duncan McGeary said...

Better hurry! Only a week to go before prices go up!

Marge said...

No, it's 2 days before we lead the COUNTRY out of the housing crisis. Remember April 25th !!!

Duncan McGeary said...

Oops. Sorry. 2 days. Why April 25, I wonder?

Duncan McGeary said...

If I was Dana Brattan, I'd be going on a two week vacation about now, and hope everyone forgets what I said.

And I wonder if the Bulletin will do a follow up....

Marge said...

We all thought the past 9 months were slow....We don't know slow yet. And worse..I am seeing "investors" looking for rentals to buy. How stupid can they be?

Anonymous said...

We all thought the past 9 months were slow....We don't know slow yet. And worse..I am seeing "investors" looking for rentals to buy. How stupid can they be?

*

Ok, marge I'll play the rhetorical game. Let's say I buy a real NICE home 3bd-2bth, near drake park for $220k ( 30% down, investors pay 30%down ) that be $180k loan, no problem for a $1k/mo rent to cover, yes your NOT making money, but if your young, and in for the long haul, and you just 'inherited' $60k, its a VERY wise investment, say on a 15yr fix, you have a $500k or more property ( yes I think that bend RE might be back in 15yr ).

The $200 question, is can nice inner city homes be had today for $220k?? The answer is yes. Do a lot of investors have $60k?? Yes.

I myself have bought two homes in the last two years, for prices that I simply couldn't refuse. The most recent was a for $240k for a home that had an ASK of $550k in 2005. The owner only owed $90k, and was simply glad to have nearly tripled his money.

- buster

I'm not around much, because as homer say's we don't do 'stupid', and lately this blog has become man-twat and stupid 24/7. You note BEM hasn't been around for a while either. Note he did a real good job of defining how to fix Bend, and NOT one fucking man-twat picked up the ball. This group is fucking pathetic.

WRT investors, there of course simply isn't enough of people like myself that like to fix-up, and maintain rentals, and that can put up 30% down. Like I have said for a 'kid' at 25, its a sweet deal, as you can be 'retired' by 40, if you were to do this. You can lead a man-twat to water, but you can't make IT drink.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I'm not around much, because as homer say's we don't do 'stupid', and lately this blog has become man-twat and stupid 24/7. You note BEM hasn't been around for a while either. Note he did a real good job of defining how to fix Bend, and NOT one fucking man-twat picked up the ball. This group is fucking pathetic.

Man, I needed that.

WRT to Month to date figures: Thanks Marge, you Goddess.

April looks like death. $270K? I guess I'm still sort of surprised at the "inverse geometric" way this thing seems like it's unfolding. There was "nothing" in the way of real prices moves, all the while volume went to shit. Finally... prices are imploding.

Hmmm, who knew.

Anonymous said...

Ok, marge I'll play the rhetorical game. Let's say I buy a real NICE home 3bd-2bth, near drake park for $220k ( 30% down, investors pay 30%down ) that be $180k loan, no problem for a $1k/mo rent to cover...

Ok, I'll play the rhetorical game.

You take a loan out for 180k at 5.875 for 30 years. The principal and interest payment is $1065 a month. The taxes on the property are $150 a month and the insurance is another $50. Your cost is $1265 a month for PITA. Over the year that is $15180 a year.

Maintenance costs on the low end are about 1% to 2% of the purchase price. On the low end say $2200 a year.

Renting every month isn't guaranteed and you will have some lapses. Figure you are taking in rent 11 months a year.

Income on the property: $11000 a year. PITA plus maintenence is $17380 a year. That's net loss of $6380 a year, or about $532 a month.

That doesn't pencil out in my book and isn't an "investment" I want to make.

Marge said...

Dudes,
Rental investments haven't made REAL sense in Bend since the early 80's. I don't care if you pay cash or 30% down there is no sense in todays prices.You never make your maintenence and PITI. Now it's even worse. If you have bought or are buying in years 2006 to date, you are screwed. The only way you make money is by selling. Since the prices are going down for the next 3-4 years and will be held down for years after that, the only thing you gain is deprecition. If that works with your income , jump right in. Otherwise jump ship.
I ask, why do people consider a house anything different than any other purchase that you have to maintain, that goes down in value as soon as you own it? Why should one expect a return on the investment? You use it, many don't maintain it, you but it like a car. It's not a diamond that may go up in value like gold. What is the point of the unrealistic expectations.
Answers?

Anonymous said...

Rental investments haven't made REAL sense in Bend since the early 80's.

*

I'm still living in the early 80's.

- buster

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Pronghorn persuades county to grant it a fifth extension
Everything's in place but 2 hotels, which are required for resort status
By Hillary Borrud / The Bulletin
Published: April 24. 2008 4:00AM PST

The Pronghorn destination resort will get five more years to complete overnight units required by state law and county code, under an agreement reached by the resort developers and Deschutes County officials Wednesday.

With 48 overnight units built so far at the 640-acre resort northeast of Bend, developers approached the county seeking a fifth extension of the time to its deadline to meet the 2-to-1 ratio of single family homes to overnight lodging units.

The real estate market has slowed since the county approved the resort in 2002, but at Wednesday’s meeting, the resort’s attorney said the economic viability of overnight units has increased now that facilities such as golf courses and a clubhouse are built.

Pronghorn’s request provoked a heated exchange as county commissioners aired conflicting opinions on the divisive issue of overnight units. Along with amenities such as golf courses, this lodging for tourists distinguishes destination resorts from rural subdivisions. Deschutes County has found it difficult to enforce rules for overnight units from the beginning.

Pronghorn has 305 lots and residential units laid out and the developers plan to add 79 more, said Paul Blikstad, a senior planner with Deschutes County. As a result, the resort needs to build a total of 192 overnight units. Overnight units can include hotel rooms or time shares, such as the 48 “fractionally owned units” that Pronghorn has built so far.

The agreement reached Wednesday will require Pronghorn developers to build the first of two “condo hotel” structures in three years, and complete the second one in five years. Together, they will bring 144 more overnight units to Pronghorn and allow the resort to meet state and county requirements.

Commissioners Tammy Melton and Dennis Luke acknowledged the county’s lack of options, or what Luke called a “hammer” to hold Pronghorn accountable if it does not meet the five-year deadline. The county could issue code enforcement fines or build the overnight lodging itself, using a cash bond the developers put up to guarantee they would meet the 2-to-1 ratio — a path the county is reluctant to take.

Commissioner Mike Daly initially opposed giving Pronghorn a strict deadline and said the county needs to allow developers some leeway during the economic slowdown.

“I think what we’re doing is allowing the developer of a very beautiful development to have a little breathing room,” Daly said. “If you can’t fill the rental units, in my opinion, there’s no reason to build them.”

Melton said the county needs to stand firm on the overnight lodging requirements, because other developers are watching and the county’s treatment of Pronghorn could set a precedent.

“When we have a contractual agreement; we have to stand on something, not just that we’re going to continually waffle on (it),” Melton said.

Luke agreed. “Other resorts will be able to throw this up and say, ‘You’re not enforcing your own conditions,’” he said.

Deschutes County Legal Counsel Laurie Craghead confirmed some of Luke and Melton’s concerns. “That’s considerably longer than we’ve given anyone else,” she said of the five-year extension.

Luke said he wants Pronghorn to report its progress to the county on an annual basis.

“This is an agreement that will set standards for other resorts,” Luke said. “The comments we’ve got on Eagle Crest and others is we have no hammer.”

Although the Deschutes County Commission and Pronghorn’s attorney arrived at an agreement on the conditions of the extension Wednesday morning, the county still needs to draft the actual legal document and bring it back to the commission for signatures. The commission requested the document for Monday.

The latest plans

Pronghorn’s approach to meeting the overnight unit requirements has changed over time, and with the latest plans for hotels it has reverted back to its initial concept. Under a final master plan approved in 2002, Pronghorn was supposed to build a 75- to 100-room luxury hotel. At that time, the resort was required to have 150 overnight units by the end of 2007.

In early 2007, however, the resort developer sought a fourth extension and changed its plans. Developer Tom Hix said at the time Pronghorn would rely on townhomes to meet the overnight unit requirements.

Pronghorn has built six “eight-plexes,” with eight bedrooms in each building, Blikstad said. People can rent an entire eight-plex, or an individual bedroom and bathroom unit known as a “lock out.” The resort counts each of the rooms as an overnight unit, to reach its current total of 48.

What’s different?

Melton asked Pronghorn representatives at Wednesday’s meeting what would be different about the latest extension, considering the resort did not meet past deadlines.

Laura Cooper, an attorney for Pronghorn, said the market for overnight units is better now that facilities including the golf courses and clubhouse are complete.

“We currently estimate that both hotels can be completed in four years, and that it is our absolute intent,” she said.

“I certainly understand your position, and I hear the same people complain that you do,” Cooper continued. “In the past, we didn’t have all the infrastructure completed. It’s a tremendous investment that, with the hotels, will pay off in the future for the resort and the community.”

The high-end resort is surrounded by federal land northeast of Bend, off Powell Butte Highway, and boasts golf courses designed by Tom Fazio and Jack Nicklaus. It is also home to the Jack Nicklaus Academy at Pronghorn Golf Club.

Despite the commissioners’ disagreements over how to treat Pronghorn’s extension request, all were careful to acknowledge the economic contributions of resorts in Deschutes County. In the 2007-08 fiscal year, Pronghorn was the fourth-largest property taxpayer in the county, with $671,681 in assessed taxes, according to documents from the County Assessor’s Office.

“I believe they need to be as successful as possible, too,” Luke said.

“I want to be clear; it’s a wonderful opportunity for Deschutes County to have destination resorts,” Melton said. “But we’re shooting ourselves in the foot if we don’t stick by our agreements.”

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

This Pronghorn piece is a classic example of how the old boy network & cronyism completely runs Central Oregon.

Pronghorn is, YET AGAIN, flipping the bird at the rules.

And of course, our towns leaders throw up their hands, and declare themselves POWERLESS to punish Pronghorn for building their chameleon subdivision.

"Oh no, we're UNABLE to punish them! What'll we do!"

YOU STUPID MOTHERFUCKERS, you take their fuckin' bond money & you contract to have the shittiest meth-dive MOTEL (yea, I said MO) ever built right in the entrance.

Par for the course, cast a 100% BLIND EYE to Rule Breakers if they are chums of City Hall.

You wanna know why Bend "can't be saved"? Look here. The City of Bend is still sucking the cock of local RE.

"Ahhhh, we're defenseless to punish these fuckers!"

SHUT THE FUCKER DOWN!

This is just PATHETIC.

Melton is THE ONLY ONE who comes remotely close to even asserting that THE RULES SHOULD BE ENFORCED. WHAT? What the fuck are these Commissioner lunatics doing? Why are there ANY rules at all?

It's these brain-dead cocksuckers JOB to enforce the rules THEY'VE MADE, and they declare themselves IMPOTENT in their enforcement.

Nowhere else, man. NO FUCKING OTHER PLACE on Earth is as fucked up as Bend.

"Dude, we can't punish Pronghorn, cuz their lawyer has sucked all our cocks, my boy is dating the developers daughter, and Jack Nicklaus has jerked off on Tom Fazio's ass up there. It's sacred ground."

You fuckin' jerk offs! SHUT THE FUCKER DOWN!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

FIFTH FUCKIN EXTENSION?

What the fuck? How the fuck many extensions are you gonna give these bitches? 100? 500? 10,000?

These poor, POOR Pronghorn fuckers are claiming poverty because they're down to their last $50 million, and they can't quite bring themselves to squeeze this Cleveland Steamer of a LUXURY HOTEL outta their ass, so they go to the biggest PATSY dumbfucks within 1,000 miles: Right, Bend City Commissioners.

And the same BS as usual: Some Pronghorn fuckers takes a shit in his hand, puts the turd in the freezer, then arrives at their extension meeting & Alaskan Pipelines the frozen turd right up MIKE DALY'S ASS, who is then physically unable to oppose them cuz they are joined at the asshole by frozen shit. Seriously. Try it, it's like being in a fuckin' Vulcan Mind Meld.

Mike Daly, pull that mind-controlling shit outta your ass & grow a backbone, you wimpy ass cum sponge.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Daly said. “If you can’t fill the rental units, in my opinion, there’s no reason to build them.”

Daly probably had to gurgle out this line, cuz he was sucking the cocks of so many Pronghorn lackey's at once.

What the FUCK!

Why? Why do we have these BRAIN DEAD FUCKS running this town?

This guy's solution to Pronghorn being the slightest bit resistant, is to completely give them a pass. This fucker should do brder patrol down in AZ.

"Well, there's just a lot of them jumping the fence, and I'm unable to stop them, cuz all I have is a Hummer, a sub-machine gun, 27 German Shepherds, a bullet-proof vest, the Law Of The U.S.A., night vision goggles, 5,000 co-workers similarly armed, and Stinger missiles. What am I supposed to stop them with? After all, they are unarmed Mexican's with a 20 yard head start. They'll be in Madras running a meth superlab before I can even stop sucking the cock of this real estate developer I picked up in Tucson."

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

From BEM:

CUT THE DESTINATION RESORTS LOOSE. No matter what they say in public, not one of these destination resort subdivisions around here is "penciling out" the way its sponsors thought it would. Soon the destination resorts will come calling to city and/or county and/or state governments asking for property tax breaks, regulatory exemptions and other goodies, and they should be told "NO." I'm not an anti-destination resort activist. Some say that their drain on services and infrastructure exceeds their economic benefit. But let's assume for sake of argument that they create jobs and are generally a net benefit to neighboring communities. It doesn't matter - they don't deserve a handout. They should be treated like any other business. Either destination resorts make economic sense or they don't. In a county where almost every business besides Trader Joe's is hunkering down for tough times, 5,000 homeless people are living in the woods, the desert, motels, vacant homes and the streets, and 19% of the population (including kids) has no health insurance, luxury golf course developments don't deserve any subsidies or breaks. And making them nicer does almost nothing to make Bend or other Central Oregon communities nicer.

timothy said...

>>That doesn't pencil out in my book and isn't an "investment" I want to make.

That's not a terrible loss. And that loss will stay in 2008 dollars.

Also, the loss will diminish if we get inflation that causes rents to rise. (In other words, we need good old-fashioned wage inflation.)

And eventually your loan is up and you stop making payments. So it's a form of "retirement plan" for a young person.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Is this really the 5th extension for Pronghorn? That just seems incredible. That's one each year. Plus the tone of the article seemed to indicate that the dumbass commissioners had never heard of Pronghorn.

This doesn't sound right to me. Is it even conceivable these people are truly THAT stupid?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


That's not a terrible loss. And that loss will stay in 2008 dollars.


Ahhhhhhhhhhh!!! Someone call the paramedics!

"Well officer, he was standing there minding his own business, when these 5 guys in suits came out of the local real estate office rushed him & forced him to drink some sort of orange-colored drink. He initially struggled, but was unable to fight back or control his bowels once they had gotten a gallon in him. He started screaming about "Never buying at a loss", or something, but after awhile, it seemed like he gave up. I hope he's OK."

Timmy: ::slurred speech:: "Buying at an acceptable lossssssss is perrrrfectly fiiiiine. Besssst Buyerrrs Marrrk... 20... 401K... gone..."

WE NEED 200cc's of ipecac, STAT!

bruce said...

Note on that Pronghorn extension, it's for five years. FIVE FUCKING YEARS. None of those County Commissioners will be around then...

Other news:

New-Home Sales in the U.S. Plunge More Than Forecast (Update2)

By Shobhana Chandra

April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Purchases of new homes in the U.S. plunged more than forecast in March to the lowest level in almost 17 years as stricter loan rules and falling prices caused buyers to hold off.

Sales dropped 8.5 percent to an annual pace of 526,000, the fewest since October 1991M, from a 575,000 rate the prior month, the Commerce Department said today in Washington. The median sales price slumped 13.3 percent from the same time last year, the most in almost four decades.

A jump in subprime mortgage defaults and record foreclosures have worsened the real-estate slump and led banks to limit lending. The threat of a prolonged recession is growing as lower home values constrain consumer spending and persistent declines in homebuilding subtract from economic growth.

``This blows away any hope that things are stabilizing in housing,'' said Michael Feroli, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. ``It's a negative for growth and for the economy, and it's going to persist into the second half of the year.'' ..."


There's more here.

BushCo and Greenspan policies have led us into what could almost be considered a perfect storm hitting our economy:

1) Uncontrolled deficit spending and, until recently, lending policies, resulting in a historically low dollar and interest rates.

2) A tripling of energy costs, which has greatly increased food costs especially, as we are stupidly growing food to feed our SUV's.

3) A succession of bubbles that finally exploded when the bubble surrounding the core of our economy, our housing industry, finally exploded.

My question is what is going to fuel the US economy after all these defaults (not only on houses, but also on cars according to an article yesterday) work their way onto credit ratings and cannot be removed due to the "reform" in the bankruptcy laws? Who is going to buy when so many will not have credit to buty with? Isn't this a giant fucking hole in whatever logic has been driving this administration for the last eight years?

timothy said...

Heh. I didn't say I'd do it. But I've seen people sustain rental losses for a while and have them turn into gains and then get the big payoff at the end.

The cheaper you buy the better. It makes a monstrous difference to the long run.

timothy said...

>>Is it even conceivable these people are truly THAT stupid?

Is it conceivable that they aren't?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I didn't say I'd do it. But I've seen people sustain rental losses for a while and have them turn into gains and then get the big payoff at the end.

I'm just thinking the whole "pay monthly losses for the big appreciation payday at the end" is over for a decade or so.

Almost any medium or long term RE investment, good or bad, probably had a good payoff if the holding period terminated in 2005-2006.

I agree, buying at rock-bottom prices is as close to a sure thing as you can get. And we ain't there yet. We're not even close.

LavaBear said...

>>Is it even conceivable these people are truly THAT stupid?

5 frickin extensions for Pronghorn. Can they be THAT stupid?

Juniper Ridge fiasco. Can they be THAT stupid?

Giving away SDC fees to promote "growth". Then going fucking broke. Can they be THAT stupid?

Should we go on?

Anonymous said...

More Rhetorical on the rental:

Say you buy the place at 240k with the 180k loan. Prices continue to drop to make that place worth $160k at the bottom and then go up at 4% a year for 30 years. In 30 years you have a house worth just about 500k. Not a bad retirement.

BUT... say you took your 30% down and closing costs over to the stock market instead an just got an 8% return. That would be about $720k for the same time period. Without the yearly loss for the next 10 years and without the headache of renting and maintaining the place.

Yes this is an over simplification and you can argue that the rent will go up and you will be making money at the end. I say if you took the money you are loosing per year now and invested that too in stocks you would be ahead. Losses now will be greater after compound interest than you will make in the end.

Not a good investment to buy as a until the house sells for 120x the monthly rent. That house was bought for twice as much as it makes sense to pay.

LavaBear said...

>>Ok, marge I'll play the rhetorical game. -buster

Ok buster as someone pointed out I'm not sure the math really works well at this point and time. Until we see some seriously $60-$80/sq ft on the Westside it doesn't make sense to me. And mostly because of Bend's demographics. Once all of the REHO money leaves we are back to sustaining rents with people who work in the service industry. And that sucks.

I've been researching buying rentals but I've decided I'm sticking with West Coast college towns that are declining rapidly. Tempe, and Tucson seem to be better bets. 20,000 college kids seems a better rentor pool then the 500 seasonal ski bums Bend attracts.

Which leads back full circle to your rants regarding making Bend better. I had high hopes for OSUC when first announced. Finally was my thought. Yet now I think they've essentially made it into an internet course school where you can head up to Cock and see an adviser. Not the 4 year college we need.

timothy said...

Also, normally I assume inflation, and we could be in for a doozy period of it like late 70s-early 80s.

But if we have deflation coming on, as some argue (and as Japan had for almost 2 decades), buying would be the millstone that drags you to the bottom of the Mirror Pond.

timothy said...

>>Which leads back full circle to your rants regarding making Bend better. I had high hopes for OSUC when first announced. Finally was my thought. Yet now I think they've essentially made it into an internet course school where you can head up to Cock and see an adviser. Not the 4 year college we need.

That school could raise money enough to build a real campus if it would just finally succomb to selling sexy I ♥ COCC shirts.

Anonymous said...

These poor, POOR Pronghorn fuckers are claiming poverty because they're down to their last $50 million, and they can't quite bring themselves to squeeze this Cleveland Steamer of a LUXURY HOTEL outta their ass, so they go to the biggest PATSY dumbfucks within 1,000 miles: Right, Bend City Commissioners.

We all know Paul can be clueless at times, but is he really so out of touch with Central Oregon that he can't tell the difference between Bend City Councilors and Deschutes County Commissioners?????

Anonymous said...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...
Is this really the 5th extension for Pronghorn? That just seems incredible.
+++

bruce said...
Note on that Pronghorn extension, it's for five years. FIVE FUCKING YEARS. None of those County Commissioners will be around then...
+++

Huh, is that the kettle calling that pot black?

Brucey-pussy has been spouting off about how he is gonna file Ethics Commission complaints on the CC's violations of Exec Sessions for how long now? And he is complaining about other people not doing what they say they are gonna do.

What a fucking Brucey-pussy Man-TWAT hypocrite.

From the IHTBYB post with the awesome picture of Piper, way back on October 28, 2007 9:58 AM, our very own brucey-pussy was gonna file the Ethics Commission complaint against the CC for Exec Sessions violations.

+++++++++
Bruce said...
Great rant, even by your standards :)

BTW, I was going to post this yesterday but seemed to have forgotten. Next time our fine city council breaks the law, let's file suit within 60 days and make it very public. Here's the scoop:

Re: Broken open meeting laws

The most egregious example is the Les Schwab deal. It was blatantly illegal. I did a comment explaining it here (see second comment): http://pegasus-dunc.blogspot.com/2007/09/what-is-wrong-with-our-city-council.html

It's a response to Duncan's 9/7/07 post "What is wrong with our city council?"

Briefly, the council blatantly broke ORS 192.640 by meeting without 24 hours notice and not ratifying it as an actual emergency.

ORS 192.680 concerns enforcement of this law as well as the validity of any decisions made and the liablility of memebers. It has a big out in that it states "A decision made by a governing body of a public body in violation of ORS 192.610 to 192.690 shall be voidable. The decision shall not be voided if the governing body of the public body reinstates the decision while in compliance with ORS 192.610 to 192.690." The council never did this, as far as I can tell from the minutes following the illicit session.

680 also states "Any person affected by a decision of a governing body of a public body may commence a suit in the circuit court for the county in which the governing body ordinarily meets, for the purpose of requiring compliance with, or the prevention of violations of ORS 192.610 to 192.690...", but that "Any suit brought under subsection (2) of this section must be commenced within 60 days following the date that the decision becomes public record."

And no one did, back then.

Next time we will.

October 28, 2007 9:58 AM
++++++++++

Anonymous said...

bruce-pussy said...

And no one did, back then.

Next time we will.

October 28, 2007 9:58 AM
+++

Yeah, right, brucey-pussy.

All talk, no action.

Wife works, and you stay home to post more of your talk, no action.

++++
I'm not around much, because as homer say's we don't do 'stupid', and lately this blog has become man-twat and stupid 24/7.
++++

Amen.

bruce said...

Re: Wife works, and you stay home to post more of your talk, no action.

Been up since 6 working on a web site I'm contracted to do, and will go teach in about an hour for my normal half-day on the clock. Then have four Exerscape product shipments to do after I get done this afternoon.

But I'm just a lazy ass man twat in your bitter old eyes, which I simply don't give a fuck about.

Right now I'm just accumulating, waiting for the medians to reach 2000 levels or better. Talking about buying a rental "investment" at 240 times monthly rent is fucking stupid. I grew up helping my Dad maintain his fleet of rental houses and no all about that game. It's a pain in the ass, and if you don't do it yourself, you don't make money. I simply have no desire to spend all my off hours fixing rentals with negative cash flow...

timothy said...

Old cranky guys are starting to realize the situation is hopeless, and that even posting to a blog is no use.

We've entered another stage of Bend's drowning process.

Anonymous said...

We all know Paul can be clueless at times, but is he really so out of touch with Central Oregon that he can't tell the difference between Bend City Councilors and Deschutes County Commissioners?????

*

Not to defend my 'homer', but honestly folks the difference between city-council and county-commission, is the difference between tweedle-DUMB, and tweedle-DEE, They're ALL man-twats.

No offense against OUR bruce-pussy personally, because he's they genetic stuff that run's the county/city.

Man-Twats and their self-serving parasitism is our fucking problem.

We have a parasitic electorate, and a parasitic electable ( city commish, and city-hall ). They're ALL man-twats.

Bruce, is just a perfect example of how they think.

Anonymous said...

BUT... say you took your 30% down and closing costs over to the stock market instead an just got an 8% return. That would be about $720k for the same time period.

*

First of ALL the stock market is 100% lottery, you couldn't even BUY in the years MAGELLAN was public, the past five years the DOW has been NET-ZERO 'FACT'.

The WHOLE FUCKING issue with rentals is the fucking renter is paying your MTG.

YOU can't compare that to stock ownership, nobody is paying for your fucking stock.

Stock is just fucking paper, and all companys are ran by liars, its always best to manage your own fucking business.


Nobody can take $60k when they're 25 and turn it into a $1200/mo cash-flow 15years later. An annuity that paid that well could cost close to a $1M.

FUCK all of you, thats why your all fucking lazy loser renters.

BIG 'IF' there 8% return in the stock market. When?? Not in the past six years, .. RE goes up typically with inflation, about 4%, but the point is the fucking RENTER is paying your MTG. No other investment compares to this.

The above said most of you are too fucking lazy and stupid to maintain rentals, but Marge asked why 'investors' are buying these property's, and out of respect to marge, I have answered the question.

Anybody that tells you that the stock-market returns 8%/yr, is either a liar, or a man-twat ( fucking moron ).

The stock market is and and always has been a way for brokers to make money, and 'investors' to lose money. In the 1920's there was a book called "where are the customers yachts", then and now that question, can still be asked.

BIG fucking ponzi scheme.

The problem with BEND RE is not rentals or investments, its man-twats that thought their home was a piggy bank.

Anonymous said...

"...post more of your talk, no action."
+++

If you ain't gonna do what you say you are gonna do, then SHUT THE FUCK UP with all your braggin.

Just sayin, ya know?

Walk your talk, or don't talk.... at least about those Ethics complaints you talked so much about.

Anonymous said...

say you took your 30% down and closing costs over to the stock market instead an just got an 8% return. That would be about $720k for the same time period.

*

Here we are playing 'stupid' again, ...

The $60k down, IF you could get 8%, and YOU FUCKING CAN'T. ( without losing ALL your fucking principal )

If you invested the $60k at 8%, the first ten-years would net $120k, and the next five would bring it up to $180k. That's triple the money.

YOU buy the home now for $200k, and say it worth $500k in 15yr, and it will be because of inflation.

Then you have almost ten-folded your $60k, and note the fucking renter pays the fucking MTG.

It's all mute, because the 8% isn't possible. Right now you can only get 2% risk-free.

I have been buying rental homes for 30+ years, and I have NEVER lost money, and always made 20X or better.

The stock market is game for man-twats, and is ran by real-men to trade their real-cash for worthless paper.

Even today buying a home for around $200k is SAFE, why?? Because it is in range of 4X ( 4 times avg income ), its affordable, you can't lose.

Closing costs are nothing worth, besides as a buyer you NEVER pay closing costs, and I NEVER SELL.

Again we're debating with fucking renter man-twats, there is NO fucking point.

My point is-was that if you 25, its quite possible to be done and retired at 40, and set for life, if your not a fucking man-twat.

Anonymous said...

Even today buying a home for around $200k is SAFE, why?? Because it is in range of 4X ( 4 times avg income ), its affordable, you can't lose.

Awesome. Please read the first example. Poster said buying the house at $240k, putting 30% down and renting it for $1k a month. Renting it for $1k a month after PITI and maintenance, and figuring on a month every now and then it won't be rented is a net loss of about $500 a month.

If the renter is paying $1000 a month for it and I'm paying $500 a month to it than the renter isn't paying for my house. We are both paying for it.

If you buy a house today for 200k it won't be worth $500k in 15 years. Historically houses go up at inflation +1%. If the house goes up an avg of 4% a year that puts it at $346k in 15 years.

The thing is, we aren't at the bottom. That $240k house from the original example isn't going up at 4% from now. It's going to continue to drop. Who knows how far. If it continues to drop for two years and goes to 160k then it will be worth about $256k in 15 years. If it goes only down to 180k in 2 years it will be worth $290k.

And your renter isn't paying for the house now. You are still putting $500 a month into it. If rent goes up 5% a year, taxes go up 3% a year and maintence goes up at 3% a year the renter will be fully paying for the house in about 12-14 years.

The discussion started as the one buyer $240k/30%/$1k per month. In that scenario the person is taking a net loss for the first 12 years in rent. After that time the renter is indeed paying for your investment.

If the buyer waited until prices got to $160k and put the 60k down then the PI for a 15 year would be $830/month. Add in $200 taxes and insurance and you would just be paying maintenance out of pocket ($2000 a yr). After 3 or 4 years you would have rent increase to cover that and then it starts to pencil out.

So, invest away. I'll wait, thank you. Man-twat.

timothy said...

http://tinyurl.com/55eor5

Media finally notices shadow inventory, which we have been talking about for well over a year on this blog.

Shadow inventory (all the sellers that are waiting for a "better market" to finally sell) will be final thing that holds down prices. And it will hurt the most, because it will dash the hopes of recovery just when it seems that prices will rise due to increased sales volume (whenever that starts to happen).

If you want to buy, THAT's when you buy--during the maximum misery of the shadow sellers. The final era of pain.

Anonymous said...

If you want to buy, THAT's when you buy--during the maximum misery of the shadow sellers. The final era of pain.

*

Then there will be NO money avail, then NO bank in hell will loan on BEND.

IF YOU WANT to BUY, its always location, location, location.

ALL BEND STD's will be demolished, only small nice little inner city hood homes will survive the purge.

That said given that 98% of Bend is man-twat, and given that man-twat wants +3k sq-ft miny-me mcMansion's, ... the klusterfuck will continue.

Why 'invent' a new word timmy-twat? We have all along called it 'dark-matter', that 1/3 of Bend that is 2nd homes, that can't be sold, and now with 5-10 dollar fuel, they no longer will be used, ...

Then there is the 10K+ STD's new HOLLERN shit all over DODGE, that will go back to the deer mice and chip-munks.

Nothing dark or shadowy, all you have to do is drive Bend in the eve and count the number of homes with the lights on. Most of Bend is dark-matter.

We still have 2-3 more years, trouble is there will be fewer and fewer that bought for under $100k, or had to sell that were free&clear to sell, ... as time progresses most homes for sale will be under-water, .e.g. REPOS's, you never want to buy a REPO.

Anonymous said...

The discussion started as the one buyer $240k/30%/$1k per month. In that scenario the person is taking a net loss for the first 12 years in rent.

*
FUCK YOU MAN TWAT.

I do this shit, I have done it, I hate discussing this SHIT with MBA's that haven't done it or lawyers, but you know what ?? Most lawyers and MBA's don't have SHIT when its over.

You buy a fucking house, a nice house for $200k, $60k down, get the fucking $140k loan at 5%, no cost ( I do it ), its around $1k/mo, I don't give a fuck about prop-taxes, so fucking what, there is no PMI, maintenance is zero-cost. Insurance is about $300/yr. I have been writing here on how this work for over a year, I have already said, you don't do it if it don't pencil.

LISTEN man-twat your 8% on $60k would be $190k in 15yr, and at the real 2% it would be $80k, but the fucking house, and put in a renter for $1200/mo who pays the MTG, and in 15yr you have a $500k asset that was tax-free. You can't do that on interest.

You do this when your 25 1,2,3 .. homes and you retire at 40 on the rental income, or you do what I do and create a fucking empire, ... I was retired at 35, and spent 15yrs traveling, then I went back and bought more.

FUCK MAN-TWAT mba's, and lawyers, ... & cpa's, they couldn't and don't maintain rentals, this is why when its over they don't have shit.

This is why we have the bend-bubble because man-twats are stupid, and tried to play piggy bank with their house.

All of Bend is man-twat 98% I have written this many times here.

Only 2% of people ever 'get-it', read 'richest man in babylon' most man-twats go through their whole lives and end up with nothing.

Marge you fucking started this, I have answered your fucking question.

Yes, if your an intelligent investor, and your young, and you like to fix shit, there has NEVER ( in 25 years ) been a better time to buy in Bend.

Only fools can call a bottom, and you don't want to compete with man-twats on after the trough, thus right now when all the man-twats are panicking is a great time to buy.

Long term, its all long term.

By 2025 we'll be in WWIII, there will have been a new baby-boom, and by 2030 a whole new bend-bubble.

HOMER why don't you be a useful slimey cunt, and use some of this material on your site, so that people can understand how its done. I did it last Feb 07, on bendbubble.blogspot.com "How to get rich in RE", ...

Hell yes, the next 2-3 years are going to be PURE fucking misery in Bend, but don't think for a moment, these aren't the best of times.

Lastly, 98% of of all of you are pathetic man-twats.

timothy said...

>>Why 'invent' a new word timmy-twat?

I didn't invent a new word. I just pointed out that I'm starting to see acknowledgment in the media.

I find it interesting to watch when the media decides to play various cards. I think the writers and editors have to sense that the timing is right to catch the attention of the public. Play the card too soon and the public ignores it or rolls their eyes.

Yes, it all plays out in the blogs first, but so early that 99% of people don't want to hear it. When it finally hits the mass media, maybe 20%-40% is ready to hear it.

Anonymous said...

Awesome.

Show me a house you can get in Bend for $200k that will rent for $1200. Good luck with that. May as well figure in a few more months a year of empty because $200k right now is going to be a shithole. Smart people don't rent shitholes for $1200 a month.

Houses that are $200k now aren't going to be $500k in 15 years. Nope. Not going to happen. They will be 150k in two years, then go up at 4% a year. 13 years of 4% on $150k is $250k. That's roughly half of your estimate.

Show me a house that isn't going to require maintenance. Whoops - the water heater shit the bed. No painting it for 15 years? Sure. The roof is shit? No problem - what's a leak here or there. If it's $200k now it is either old and needs work, or is new crap construction and will fall apart in 10 years. Either way it needs maintenance. You don't maintain - I don't want to rent from you.

When you started buying 20+ years ago was a different time.

Call us all more names. Still doesn't change that it doesn't pencil out. Yet.

Anonymous said...

Snip 1:
Ok, marge I'll play the rhetorical game. Let's say I buy a real NICE home 3bd-2bth, near drake park for $220k ( 30% down, investors pay 30%down ) that be $180k loan, no problem for a $1k/mo rent to cover, yes your NOT making money, but if your young, and in for the long haul, and you just 'inherited' $60k, its a VERY wise investment, say on a 15yr fix, you have a $500k or more property ( yes I think that bend RE might be back in 15yr ).

Snip 2:
I have been writing here on how this work for over a year, I have already said, you don't do it if it don't pencil.



Hey fucktard, that's what the earlier poster said. It don't pencil. Principal and interest on 180k on a 15 year loan at 5% is $1425 a month. Add the taxes because that's part of the cost of the house. With insurance it's at least $1600 a month with no maintenance.

You said rent for $1000.

That's costing $7200 a yr on top of your $60k if you don't maintain and if you have no vacancy. Both are ridiculous assumptions.

Pick up three winners like that and you are all set to start turning them back to the bank.

People make money in the stock market. If you know what you are doing you can make much more than 8%. Of course if you know what you are doing with stocks as well as you seem to know the current real estate situation then you are fucked.

assmonkey. (come on with the fucking man-twat, can't you come up with something original each post?)

Marge said...

Marge you fucking started this, I have answered your fucking question.

Enough with the MT name calling!
Thank God I am not an MT.

Anyone that buys a rental in Bend before 2012 is a retard and will be feeding the pig forever. Buy it with cash and it's still going to go backwards for a long long time.
Hey, if you want to flush your money go right ahead, I'll help you buy it and get 6% :) I will be the only one that makes any money.
If the depreciation is what you need that should factor in. But the recapture will get you in the end. I don't feel like running the $'s on this little excersise for those that don't care and those that do, can run your own. Now is not the time to buy a rental. Enough said on that.
So, it didn't snow today..Yahoo

I didn't start this, I was just stating my thoughts on rentals.
They have barely ever penciled here. The only way in the PAST was to hold and sell in a rising market. That won't be possible for a long time to come.

I would like an 8% investment though...any ideas? Best I can think of is 1st mortgages on homes that are not under water.

Anonymous said...

I thought you all might enjoy the Porta-Potty Index (courtesy Sacramento Landing):


I was searching for signs of the coming economic apocalypse along the stressed seams of Sacramento’s suburban neighborhoods, and honey buckets [aka porta-potties] seemed like a perfectly reasonable place to start...It seems reasonable to expect, given rising unemployment in the construction industry, to find stacks of honey buckets piling up all over the country. We might point to this excess as an indicator of reduced economic activity, a honey-bucket index, if you will.
...
After the real-estate bubble popped 18 months ago, the porta-potties began stacking up at the rental place [my Dad] drives by on the way into town [Redding]. Nowadays, so many honey buckets have been returned, they’re stacking them outside the fence. Surely, my father speculated, the same phenomenon must exist in Sacramento.

Indeed it does. At J & J Sanitation in south Sacramento, the excess toilets were stacked four-deep next to an adjacent vacant warehouse. The sweet stink of what seemed like 1,000 honey buckets wafted over the razor wire at Waste Management’s compound off Elder Creek Road. At United Site Services in north Sacramento, the porta-loos, hundreds of them, were stacked high and deep behind the security fence.

bruce said...

Re: I would like an 8% investment though...any ideas? Best I can think of is 1st mortgages on homes that are not under water.

Maybe shortselling banks like WaMu and Cascade and builders like Puhle.

When the Fed rate is hovering near 2%, 8% looks like haven.

Anonymous said...

LISTEN man-twat your 8% on $60k would be $190k in 15yr, and at the real 2% it would be $80k, but the fucking house, and put in a renter for $1200/mo who pays the MTG, and in 15yr you have a $500k asset that was tax-free. You can't do that on interest.

You do this when your 25 1,2,3 .. homes and you retire at 40 on the rental income, or you do what I do and create a fucking empire, ...


Dude, great idea, let's all do it. We'll all buy $200K houses near Drake Park and rent them to each other for $1200/mo and in 15 years we'll all be fukin' rich. What could be easier!!!!!

bruce said...

I'm still wondering where the $40M is coming from that is going to rescue our fine City via Juniper Ridge land sales.

Both Sonia Edwards-Finance and John Russell-Econ Dev have told me face to face they have no idea. I'm still trying to get a good response out of Garz.

This is critical. As Sonia said, fingers are crossed.

Especially among the Council pushing this.

Did anyone else notice the recent article in the BULL about some great person "exploring" the possibility of a arts/performance/sports facility in Bend?

You know, like at Juniper Ridge...

timothy said...

>>As Sonia said, fingers are crossed.

Finger-crossing. Does that work?

Marge said...

Sink...sunk... I am hoping for a small Bahamian island..although Mexico is cheaper.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Did anyone else notice the recent article in the BULL about some great person "exploring" the possibility of a arts/performance/sports facility in Bend?

I try not to read stuff that raises my blood pressure. Impossible here.

Brucey, just what the fuck seems to be running thru these people's heads? I am confounded that there exists a group in this town, who just happen to be in charge, that could be so COMPLETELY OBLIVIOUS. It's just absolutely amazing.

I kinda want to go to one of these meetings just to see what these deluded lunatics talk about, and HOW they talk about. Do they even understand the magnitude of the calamity coming? Do they even talk about how bad it COULD get?

I am simply dumbfounded by these idiots.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Finger-crossing. Does that work?

No joke.

Do these turds have a Plan B? Have they even conceived of the possibility that This Won't Work, and NOTHING ELSE at Juniper Ridge will sell, or it will sell at fire-sale prices?

It's like we're on the Titanic, and they've ordered the crew to start up the orchestra...

Anonymous said...

Ok kids, the housing market is now officially on the way back up. Sorry if any of you missed buying at the low over the last 48 hours but don't say you were not warned.

Man, I feel better knowing the worst is over. I would think gas prices will also be back down below $3 a gallon sometime in the next week or two.

Did you know we are running out of rice?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Thursday, April 24, 2008 - 10:21 AM PDT
Cascade Bancorp profits down 37 percent
Portland Business Journal



Along with most other banks in the current round of earnings announcements, Cascade Bancorp Inc. reported a sharp drop in profits for the first quarter.

Bend-based Cascade (NASDAQ: CACB) reported first-quarter revenue of $43.6 million, down 7 percent from last year's first-quarter revenue of $46.9 million.

Profits, however, fell much more steeply, to a little more than $6 million, or 22 cents per share, a 37 percent decline from last year's first-quarter earnings of $9.5 million, or 33 cents per share.

Cascade Bancorp, which operates Bank of the Cascades in Oregon and Idaho, said that its first-quarter results included two one-time gains. The partial distribution of shares in VISA Inc. brought in $600,000, or 1 cent per share during the first quarter, a gain that was offset by nonperforming loans.

The other one-time event was a favorable adjustment of 2 cents per share, due to Cascade's decision to hold all its existing bank-owned life insurance policies until death of the insured.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Man, I feel better knowing the worst is over.

Awesome.

I too am glad that we've all had a good laugh & we can finally shut down this God forsaken blog of doom.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

CACB traded way lower after hours yesterday, but it was on practically no volume. I'm not sure what the expected earnings were... I guess we'll see how it goes in about 10 minutes.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Actually CACB released yesterday during market hours... Here's a better release.

4/24/2008 11:05:36 AM Thursday, banking services provider Cascade Bancorp (CACB) announced first quarter financial results, posting a decrease in profit from the prior year period.

For the first-quarter, net income of the Bend, Oregon-based company decreased to $6.04 million or $0.22 per share from $9.52 million or $0.33 per share in the prior year period.

On average, five analysts polled by First Call/Thomson Financial expected the company to report earnings of $0.22 per share.

First quarter earnings included a $4.5 million provision for credit losses with net loan charge-offs of $4.2 million. The results also included a gain on the mandatory partial distribution of VISA, Inc. shares of $0.6 million or $0.01 per share from their recent initial public offering.

Quarterly net interest income decreased to $25.06 million from $26.55 million in the comparable period last year. Non-interest income was down to $5.50 million from $5.54 million a year ago.

Total interest expense rose to $38.1 million from $14.8 million in last year quarter.

Shares of CACB are currently trading at $8.87, down $0.09 or 1.00%, on a volume of 67,348 shares on the Nasdaq.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And to celebrate today, The Bottom Of The Central Oregon Real Estate Market:


‘The big picture is pretty rosy’
At Central Oregon Business Expo, EDCO director points to region’s strong, diversified foundations
By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin
Published: April 25. 2008 4:00AM PST


REDMOND — Central Oregon’s housing market downturn, while painful for many, does not reflect the economy’s overall health, the region’s top economic development official said Thursday.

The region’s diversification, enhanced by several years as the fastest growing region in the state, will help it weather what could be an impending recession, said Roger Lee, executive director of Economic Development for Central Oregon, which promotes business growth in the region.

Lee was the keynote speaker at the Central Oregon Business Expo, an annual showcase event for the region’s businesses at the Deschutes County Fair & Expo Center in Redmond.

“The fundamentals are still intact for this area to outpace the rest of the nation in terms of growth and prosperity,” Lee said. “Buildings are still going up, restaurants are still full, we’re still faring better than Oregon and the rest of the nation.”

Lethargic job growth — which slowed to 1.4 percent year over year in Deschutes County in March, compared with an average of 7.4 percent in March between 2004 and 2006 — could create recessionary pressures, Lee said.

“If we aren’t in a recession, maybe we will be in the next six to eight months,” he said. “But it’s not going to last that long. It’s a great opportunity to get your business in order from a financial perspective, develop future products and find competitive advantages in the marketplace.”

Despite median home sales prices that dropped in the first three months of 2008 almost 12 percent in Bend, to $306,500, and 14 percent in Redmond, to $220,000, from the first quarter of 2007, Lee pointed to several bright points in the region’s economy in an hourlong slide presentation.

EDCO has 35 key pending economic development projects in 10 different industries that will produce $127.7 million in capital investment and 1,352 jobs within the next four to 18 months, Lee said.

The region’s software industry has several smaller-sized companies that are expanding, he said.

Alternative energy has the potential to transform the region’s economy in the same way the semiconductor industry pulled the state out of the timber-based economy in the 1990s, Lee said.

He also pointed to advancements in the aerospace and biotech industries, where several companies have spun off from Lancair and Bend Research Inc.

“The big picture is pretty rosy,” he said. “We had hoped the housing collapse would come sooner, and we would have a softer landing. But housing is an important component of the employment and wealth in the region, but it’s not the economy.”

Lee’s report sounded good to Molly Renner, business services marketing manager at BendBroadband.

“Everyone’s basing the economy on real estate and building, and we’re not doing as well as we used to,” Renner said. “But BendBroadband’s business continues to grow. When companies are expanding, that also will enable us to grow. New businesses are calling us up every day.”

Lee also gave businesses steps to take to prepare for an economic downturn, including:

• Build reserves to carry forward during lean times.

• Cut employees who aren’t meeting expectations.

• Renegotiate supplier con- tracts.

• Determine what new product or service your company can offer to build competitive advantage.

• Control inventories.

“If you’re a manufacturer and not implementing lean (management) principles, you should,” Lee said. “And not just for manufacturing.”

The outlook encouraged McDonald Group, a human resources recruiting firm, based in Bend.

“It’s an exciting and encouraging economic outlook for Central Oregon,” said Anne McDonald, the business’s owner. “The bottom line is that it’s smart business to prepare and have reserves in the bank. It’s a good time to get out there, network and make the connection before things turn around.”


Jeff McDonald can be reached at 383-0323 or at jmcdonald@bendbulletin.com.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

“Buildings are still going up, restaurants are still full, we’re still faring better than Oregon and the rest of the nation.”

Buildings going up? How's Mercado?

Restaurants full? Really?

We're doing better than Oregon or the U.S.? Do they are down much FARTHER than the 10-15% we are?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Speaking of Mercato, you can find out more here:

http://www.mercatobend.com/default.aspx

Click the "About" page & you'll find such gems as this:

Two, 28 ft tall additional buildings on the street side will assist in unifying the scale of Mercato to the pedestrian.

I'm just glad they have the decency to UNIFY THE SCALE OF MERCATO to the casual passerby. Thank God.

Although I've driven by there & the unification efforts so far seem on the weak side. There is a chain link fence, with a broken sign warning of a vast armed contingent ready to mow you down if you breach the perimeter. Oh... and the riches inside are vast & wondrous. There's dirt & chunks of cement. My goodness, it's a scavengers Xanadu.

Stephen Trono, who's forging ahead with plans for his $80 million, 200,000-square-foot retail, office and condo project, Mercato, near the Deschutes River off Industrial Way, said every developer in the area will benefit as Bill Smith fills his Shops at the Old Mill District with national and regional retailers and other major projects, including his own, and a $127 million hotel/condo at 500 Bond St., get under way.

Trono is STILL trying to shake money from his Australian Bankers, and if the dirt-like nature of the Mercato plot is any indication, it looks like he's not having much luck.

So many Big Dreams dying a whimpering little death in the High Desert...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Do they are down...

That there is good grammar, y'all.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

From Duncans twitter updates:

Spring in Bend. Nature's way of helping local mass market stores sell the same plants twice to newcomers.

4 days ago


That is funny!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Go to Jesse Felders blog, My Back Pages, and get a better take on CACB:

Non-performing assets, or NPAs (essentially defaults), grew 68% in the first quarter alone to nearly $100 million. This is an increase of over 10-fold from last year's first quarter when NPAs were only $7.6 million.

He's also got a graph of existing homes sales, and time-indexed commentary by NAR economists that is pretty funny. Wrong 19 months in a row & counting...

bruce said...

“The big picture is pretty rosy,” he said. “We had hoped the housing collapse would come sooner, and we would have a softer landing. But housing is an important component of the employment and wealth in the region, but it’s not the economy.”

Roger Lee, May 22, 2007, at EDCO Membership Event: "2008-09 more like 2004-05...Housing activity revving back up by end of 2007"

Source: http://www.edforco.org/.docs/_sid/de7a3c7ac3d037c4a0be761f47d5e81a/pg/400/rid/10270/f/Membership_Event_5.22.07..pdf

Anonymous said...

"Buster"... SHUT THE FUCK UP. All you seem to do is call everyone names (NASTY, names 7th graders use when trying to gross each other out...) and bitch about how everyone but you is stupid and you know everything. I think enough people have posted to show the ignorance of your examples... so I won't go there. I've never met you, but just from your writing style I can tell it's a pretty safe bet you're a fuckin' loser, no close friends, fat, nasty, angry person. If you hate this blog and all these "loser renters" so much, why do you even come here?? Again, SHUT THE FUCK UP, we're tired of your ignorant rants.

Anonymous said...

HANK, WHERE ARE YOU?!

There was a commentator named Hank on here a couple of weeks ago who made some real good insights about the local economy.

Haven't heard from him since.

*

hank said...

I mostly have moved on, sometimes a lurker.

hank said...

hank said...
April 4, 2008 10:09 PM

+

Haven't posted under hank since that post, cause basically it is wasted effort. Nuttin happening on that front, nor will it ever.

Marge said...

I was so excited this AM, I went and bought a little ticket machine, like DMV's and placed it at the front door of our RE office. The agents were scrambling to the phones for all the buyers that would call to go see and buy houses, then our entire internet went down, nobody called and the ticket machine is still full.
So far BRATTON Day is a bust!

Marge said...

Maybe it is BRATTON Day.
Just got 2 offers on one home that is ending up in a bidding war and both parties are offering over list price...Hummmm

Marge said...

DOPES!

Marge said...

From Mookie at BEB

I'll take a Brattonade, barkeep.

I like that one. From now on we need to refer to RE bullshit as Brattonade!!

timothy said...

Marge,

Suckers will be buying all the way down.

Marge said...

Guess no one is sitting in front of their computer..the weather is great. I wrote Dunc a comment today. Part of which I would like to share here.
Back in the 40's and 50's, the American dream was to buy a home, make your payments for 30 years and have a mortgage burning party. No one expected anything other than having your $18k house paid off so you could leave it to your children. Why do people now expect to be paid to live in a house?
I want the mortgage burning party. I will get it soon as I have lived in this house for 15 years on a 15 year fixed loan and no HELOC's. That is the same dream my father had for his house which he paid off 17 years ago. Purchased for 18k now worth 618k and he can't believe that. For him a real bonus for putting his nose to the grindstone most of his life.
Why are thing so different now?
Spoiled Americano's is my guess. They are going to get in the end and we know which end.

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