Your Momma so Fat, when you email me her picture, BendBroadband send us both a bill!

Yellowbeard said...

IHTBYB:

You know who else we'll lose? People, like me, who are looking for that Undiscovered Gem...Maybe it's my bent for holding "undervalued assets", or some such, but Undiscovered Gems are something I am drawn to, in all forms. Cars, restaurants, towns, etc.

Bend is like a crack whore that's been used up, fucked 50X day, strung out on the cracker, and just vile. She'll NEVER, EVER be the same. Time to go.

Your blogs continue to be great as always, but this again supports those who think you're just talking down the market so you can finally pick up those undervalued homes you want.

You kindly explained your theses about buying stocks after a catastrophic event, and that dealing with bubbles is similar and also takes the form of long cycles, where again the savvy investor buys at the bottom and holds.

This blog is marketing. It is a psychological operation. You want people to be scared into pricing their homes super low, low enough so that they sell and the new lows become a precedent leading the market as low as it can go. Only then will you and the others buy.

Rent and invest the diff; walk away and don't pay; wait until the time you are being paid to enter a transaction; all of this is sound advice. As a buyer you describe accurately the signals of a true buyer's market. I don't question the morals or ethics of this; buy low and sell high is the clear common-sense mantra.

What I don't understand, though, is why you as a writer resist when I or others ask you to just admit you're actively trying to talk down the market. I'd say lots of others here help you do this, some of whom are disgruntled locals, and others are investors like you who immediately understand what it means to talk down a market.

Keep bashing away, though -- I learn a lot here. You have every right to speak freely and you do that very well.

My point is that when you deny your obvious bias and try to present yourself as just a helpful guy, it flies rather in the face of your more passionate posts where you indicate your true motives. You don't need to avoid this concession, and in fact by admitting it I think it adds to your credibility.

---

Duncan:

There was a recent comment on Bendbubble2 of someone who was suspicious of Paul-doh's motivations. Personally, I think he's just an opinionated bastard who wants to world to hear his opinion. Just like the rest of us.

Anyway, the writer implied that only "disgruntled locals" were reading his blog.

I plead guilty to "disgruntled local" .

But not for the reasons you might think. I'm not disgruntled because of the growth and the congestion and the attitudes. Like I've said before, without all that I probably wouldn't have a business or a livelihood.

No, I'm disgruntled because this growth can't be sustained. Because it was built on hype and promotions, instead of real jobs. Hype permeates this town; from over-blown businesses (and too many of them); to overblown developments with overbuilt houses with unnecessary gates; to a city council who has overreached in public transportation and Juniper Ridge; to residents who have pristine hummers and SUV's that are twice the size they need to be.

Meanwhile, Mirror Pond will be allowed to fill with silt; the roads will be hastily patched; free parking will be taken away; white elephants like the Tower Theater will continue to sit; money is going toward lawsuit settlements instead of police and fire services and so on.

Because the self-important, over blown exceptionalism that pervaded this town, by people who made no real effort to understand the history or ethos of the area.

You tell me every time you sing the praises of Trader Joes that you would really want to live in Bend, California.

Everyone of you who says this is coming from a town that had a Trader Joes. Which means that you want to turn Bend into the town you left. You want to move to Bend, and pull the mass market in here after you.

That's what makes me disgruntled.

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Brandeis Drugs. Upstairs had the toys.

Owl Drug.

For newcomers: Cascade Stationary, which was called Ericksens' Stationary. And Masterson St. Clair hardware.

I remember a grocery story across from the old Jr. High, (which was the old High School) Wagners? Safeway?

Newport Mrkt. I think was a Piggly Wigglys.

And next to where my wife's store is, in the Mini-Pet mart another market.

And of course, Rollies Market downtown; used to go there every day from my store in the eighties and get jojos and corndogs.

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I always figured I'd be like Roger Gunson of Magill Drug (talk about old Bendites) and they'd pretty much find me slumped over my cash register.

(Not meant to be disrespectful, I liked Roger a lot.)

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And before that (I think): Piggly Wigglys. No joke.

---

That 100k figure is interesting, though. Is that an automatic trigger? because it seems like they were loaning money up the the actual value of the house, in some cases. (not mine.)

Our house would have to drop more than 20%, after we invested 30k in improvements.

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"The real point is that they are shutting down all helocs. Doesn't matter how much you could borrow."

Yeah, but he doubted me. Called me fishy!

Interesting, I've noticed in my store too. Despite our vaunted independence as Americans...most people will believe big over small, institutions over individuals, and the internet over the storekeeper.

I call it the unicorn effect. I could sell a unicorn over the internet and you have no way of challenging me.

If I tell you I have a unicorn in my store...well, I have to produce it.

So why would someone assume the story is fishy? Especially since it is under my own name? And I have a store in town?

I have nothing to hide, my mongering friend.

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Timothy,
I just asked my older sister and she doesn't remember a Piggly Wiggly.

Googled it, and it says Safeway bought out the west coast PW in the
20s.

So, this may be a false memory.

And after I made such a big deal about my credibility.

Anyone out there remember a Piggly Wiggly in Bend, say, after 1958 or so. (As far back as I'm likely to remember.)

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timothy said...

Amazingly, there really was a Bend Piggly Wiggly. I've been in many Piggly Wiggglys but I had no idea that there had ever been any on the west coast.

But sure enough, there are plenty of references to the old Bend Piggly Wiggly. A nice unicorn on the Internet told me so.

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>>She really may be the sharpest tack in the bunch up at City Hall.

Bruce, you may as well look for the sharpest marshmallow in a bag.

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>Until these fuckers man up and stand up to the RE/dev community, this place will always be in trouble, except for that once every generation bubble.

During a city's boom, it MUST attack all infrastructure problems with a gusto. If it misses that rare chance, it's doomed, because it'll built a backlog of trouble that slower, saner cities don't have.

I talked to someone running for councilor at a party once. All she could talk about was subsidized housing. I told her all her efforts along that route would just keep prices high and hurt the people she wanted to help. You don't build new, cheap housing--you keep old shithouses and shitmobilehomes from being torn down if you want affordable houses. I thought I had her pinned down to listen to me, but she escaped before I was finished.

And then she lost anyway.

---

>>The contempt for Bend citizenries IQ rolls on.

Yeah well the citizens are only important as a commodity you use to fill up the buildings you build.

Bruce mentioned commercial. Holy shit, the big money in Bend is in sign making. You can't go anywhere without seeing empty or near-empty office space.

It's as if someone thought we were magically going to have 200 more 10-person Internet startups than we really have. What we really have are a couple strong tech companies, a bunch of weak ones, and then a whole bunch of one-man shows that work at home.

Who the hell is going to rent all that office space?

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>>"There is a great tradition of furniture-making in our state...

Did I wake up in North Carolina?

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Looking a Clive's chart, we seem destined to hit what must be an all-time high for inventory in a couple months. Doesn't it also look like we're already at an all-time high for under-$300k, despite it only being April?

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>>You will make MORE MONEY at lower medians. It's RIGHT THERE, do the math.

Cross your fingers that they are better at math than spelling.

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>>Can't get on BEBB whaaaattsss upppp?

Free provider for that site has a lot of downtime.

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Speaking of economy, I know of several more people looking for jobs now. Anything above $40k is getting snatched right up by people used to making a lot more.

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There's always something compelling about a train wreck. I think that's really why most of us are here.

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>>Makes it even harder to fill potholes and hire cops and firemen.

Was driving last night. On the radio the DJ was making fun of the city being unable to pave roads and pay for emergency services, but managing to have two more dog parks available by the end of the year. He did his interpretation of the council discussing the issues, making them sound like morons.

It was a dorky point, but it shows how it's becoming common knowledge around here that we're a city of fools being run by a council of greater fools.

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>>Just went to fill the propane tank to grill some steaks, and the guy filling his alongside me stated he lives off Brookswood, in a house he moved into "because my Dad is a builder and he can't sell them..."

Hmm. The Millstone houses?

Hopefully the builders around here have procreated madly.

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WTF? Is it old skool or unicode?

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Marge said...

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I just counted 1,425 Bend homes on lots for sale this morning (an exercise I think Marge also completed). That's about 6.4 QUARTERS worth of inventory, or 19.25 MONTHS. I count 591 homes on lots for sale in Redmond, and 92 sales yields 6.42 QUARTERS worth of inventory, or 19.27 MONTHS.

For clarification only...I just counted 1440 active in Bend.
Of those 66 are contingent and are counted as active. Most of the contingent homes are short sales awaiting lender approval for the sale. That means there are 1374 active.
So far April sales numbers are way down YOY. This year 23 sold as of 4.13.08 @ 298k median. In the same period of 07 there were 59 sold @$374k median.
Yup sales are up!! They always picup in the Spring.

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Right now there are 87 short sales as active listings and 1 sold since Jan 1, 08. The median price on active shorts is $299k and $249k on contingent ones.
I think it is possible for more than 100 sales a month, but it will be close to 100 for a long time to come.

---

I might be time for some burrito bets on things that will soon happen in Bend. Or at least post some dates, for all to remember, fo likely to happens.
Like Cessna leaving in a year!
Friedman going to jail this summer!
Pape being indicted by the Attorney general for cheating everyone at the Inn of 7th.
Large RE offices shutting down by fall.
What else?

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RE offices going down big....

My guesses are:
Southeby's Cushman&Tebbs
Keller Williams
Windermere
I bet Remax cuts their affiliation with ReMax and goes back to just Equity Group.
There are agents all over town looking for desks at companies that use the OLD split method and not desk fees that they pay every month whether or not you sell anything.
In the boom agents were jumping ship to the 2k a month desks plus all other expenses incurred. Now, with lean times, they are paying out more than they are making. They will either quit or split.
I can see that the bigger companies are losing market share to smaller non-franchised offices by 2 to 5%.

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3 new listings in our office this were calibangers leavin cuz they didn't know we had winter.

Yahoo Skippey.

Hope you find some ice on the way out. Better go before August when we have summer.
If we have 5,000 leave this year, there will be enough homes to house the homeless. Maybe we should chip in and buy oneways for them too.

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18 years ago, I worked at an office that was in the downtown alleyway from Drake. There was a bathroom that the public could access and the Rice Building occupants also shared it. Shit...I got crabs from it. Dunc, if you meant laundry room that is better than the bathroom! I'd rather not share any room with them. Don't know about the bat however. I think a ticket out of town would serve them well.

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I should be outside like the rest of you, but I am holed up in the house watching the Masters, windows closed, with the junipers outside going PUFFF with their yellow clouds. Can't breath in that shit. Where is that nice cold weather that keeps the allergies at bay?

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Actually, Tiger has been to Bend many, many times in the past 5 years. He and Steve go flyfishing down the Deschutes with a friend of mine. No...I have never seen him. I am not a groupie:)

========
Lice really don't ever change. They still make ya itch no matter what.
We know what's a comin in the near future. You newbies better take cover and jingle key your way out of C.O.
The early 80's are comin back to haunt us.
I'm tellin ya plant spuds, carrot, radish, beets, spinach they all grow well here as do garlic and onions and they store well in dark cool areas. Plant garlic now. Actually it should be planted in Oct. but now is better than not at all. Spuds and onions now. The rest should wait til June or when the snow is off Black Butte.
Need any more vegi advice?

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Can't grow corn in Bend...growing season is tooooo short..no rice either...few types of beans and peas. See above for the few you can grow here, without a green house. Limes would be nice to go with the Tequila. Oh well.

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Anonymous said...
St Paddy
Don't forget about the rather large Coldwell Banker office in the Mill that bad boy is gonna shut down soon enough.

CB is too well financed to crumble. Ingrained in Bend forever. I would slit my throat if they went belly up...won't happen. they would lease out offices within(as they are now doing) before that happened.

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Maren opened the Pine Tavern, Wetle had Wetle's Department stor down town and Ray had clothing store next to the Tower Theater.

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Dunc,
Remember when Newport Mkt.. was Green Mindt? Or when Pat and Mike's was upstairs in the Penny's bldg? That was 79ish. I don't remember when Eddies market and tire place opened out on Hwy 20, but those guys put tires on my truck and let me make $20's a month payments on them, in the last recession and bubble burst.

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Ah..Good one LAVBEAR..I forgot about 3 boys.

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Our house would have to drop more than 20%, after we invested 30k in improvements.
The real point is that they are shutting down all helocs. Doesn't matter how much you could borrow. Bend is a declining market on the maps and they are all getting shut off. If you need a business loan let me know. Private money, now is the better investment.

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Interesting that our county is the only place in Oregon that is tagged that badly. Guess we should expect it with such a huge runnup. I have a feeling we are going back to 2003-2004 medians in the not too far off future. That's $195-$225k. All we need is one really bad summer of sales and this will be it.
Besides what the economy does to us we will be more royally screwed than some. It is hard to get out of Bend without a ticket. With the price of gas most will only get to Weed:) Oh good, stay in Weed at least it's Cali country.

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Can't get on BEBB whaaaattsss upppp?

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They are so off base! Even P-land wouldn't pay that. That there is Beverly Hills Billys. Pure Gold..Black Crude. Or is that Krud?

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Me ( buster ) & Marge, we like the trailer-park lifestyle, I'm happy on horses or dirtbikes. I look forward to pickups again, and dirty streets, dive-bars downtown instead of salons.

Ya got me :) Trailer park will be my next move and I want my 1960 ford pickup back. Will you marry me?

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Just took another look at home sales this month. BOY have they picked up. ARGGG
In March thru the 16th there were 44 sold. April(the hot spring month) stands at 33 today. Summer should be very interesting.
Lot o traffic going south today..HUMMM

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Bruce asked:
How many of those home sales are auction sales?
++++++

My answer NONE.

True, we will have more autions, but most won't sell at auction. They will end up as MLS inventory.

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I guess since the bad news is out of the bag, it's hard to find a few more things to talk about.

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Had the best clam chowder for lunch at the D&D today. Finally found out what D&D stands for, as I sat with Creak, one of the owners. Anyone out there know this oldie question. Also had a shot of Patrone,,,Yummm

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The Natives Are Restless said...

Daley & Daley....

Yes, you win the 64 million dollar question. They were brothers. Creak has a picture of the building with a wooden boardwalk out front.

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bruce said...

CC Budget Work Meeting Update:

36 jobs cut or not filled.

Overtime cut by 22%/$417K

Elimination of Code Enforcement proposed

Building and Planning still sucking dollars, even with huge cuts. Clinton stated they should pay there own way--of course if this had been true three years ago we wouldn't be in such bad shape.

JR dead in water, leaving us $6M in hole, if land not sold this fall. Everybody's got their fingers crossed that Garz can work some magic. (From Sonia) Madras has the prison work sewn up into the foreseeable future, so that's out for now.

Public Safety (fire/police) staffing levels being cut back to 05/06 levels. Fire is planning on closing Tumalo Station about 15% of time. Lots of talk about finding another $100K to keep it open. Finally decided to use half of Mirror Pond money to do so. Even with six stations, we still run out of ambulances at least part of the time two days out of three.

Street maintenance more than halved: $1.7M to $700K.

They finally recognize that commercial fees are too low, "they've been subsidized by residential", but no talk of increasing them. Only grumbling from Clinton that they should pay for themselves.

Question: When was the last time a developer paid his true SDC and fee costs in Bend?

Answer: Never. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

An aside: The new SDC structure is only increasing fees about 30%. COBA has had about 200 contacts with the City staff over increases in construction fees. Five of the seven councilors are directly involved with development and/or real estate in some way.

Back to "news": UGB will be delayed, of someone sues City may run out of lawyer money. Is this bad?

Accessibility, affordable housing take big hits. Transit not so much. Still, Capell talked about killing it.

Planning and Engineering both take huge hits, still far from paying for themselves.

Commercial permit fees for this fiscal year second highest in history--do they really expect this too last? Besides, they are still far from paying for themselves.

Increases? Community Development and Economic Development. Also $250K to airport debt service, $180K to Juniper Ridge debt service. They are trying to build out economic areas with debt in the hope of recouping the outlays...somehow. Not entirely clear. Sonia said "if they sell 50 acres at $5 a sq ft, great! Thats $10M, and I'm even." But then agreed that she didn't know where the $40M for the interchange was coming from, and stated that wasn't really her concern. It's more on Garz and John Russell.

Her not-shovel ready price point seemed like she realized what it was really going to go for, if at all. I mentioned all the current commercial built and in process on the market and she glumly acknowledged it: "it's going to be tough". She really may be the sharpest tack in the bunch up at City Hall.

Also, reserves are being cut back to bare minumums, 1-2 months in many departments, and only two weeks in transit. Scary.

Eric kept coming back to "structural problems". I think this is an allusion to the lack of realistic SDC's and fees, both in the past and present. I sketched a diagram that led from LOw SDC's and Fees-->Planning, Engineering, Street, Utility deficits-->General Fund hits-->Public Safety Cuts. Until these fuckers man up and stand up to the RE/dev community, this place will always be in trouble, except for that once every generation bubble.

Sad. Especially when five of seven are directly involved with said industries. You can see it in their preference to cutting poor peoples' benefits (housing/transit/etc.) rather than cutting Economic and Community Development, rather than mandating realistic SDCs and permit fees.

The fucking head (Mel?) of the Planning and Engineering Departments was stating that the subsidizing of commercial inspections by residential fees was killing us now, and Clinton was the only one who even fucking stated that the developers should pay their own way in fee-based departments. Everyone else maybe thought that was a good idea, but action? Never.

That's all for now, back to taxes, etc.

PS Who ordered the fucking snow today? On the good side, some Cali's may be thinking Tucson ;)

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PS That jobs cut number is close but there were so many different layoff and not hired numbers being thrown around it was hard to get a real handle on it. They are cutting or not filling a bunch, though.

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On another note, both Johnson and Friedman were absent.

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It's a sunny day in Bend!

"Bend home sales up as prices drop"
Houses spend fewer days on the market

"For the first time since September, 2005, the median home price for single-family residences in Bend has dipped below $300,000..."

"...there has been a slight bump in the number of sales month to month and a decline in the number of days properties are sitting on the market..."

Somebody has to post this whole piece of shit.

Also, I posted to new articles to juniper-ridge-info.blogspot.com, and they should also be up at bend weekly.com later this morning. I have a slightly different take on the budget cuts:

BULL-"City services in Bend face big cutbacks"

Bruce"the sharpest marshmallow in the bag" E-"Public safety staffing may be cut to 05/06 levels"

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Re: Is this police "code" or building "code"?

City codes, not state and federal codes, like building codes. Things like sign ordinances.

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Re: Just remember, Resident Lush and the GOP are doing this to you. Pay them back in November.

Telfer made a comment about how we need to send someone to Salem (her, I'm sure) to fight for the City's right to fix the "structural problem", i.e. that they can only increase property taxes by 3% annually.

Not much mention of the actual structural problem: the stupidly low SDC's and permit fees are not paying for the new development like they are supposed to. Only mention of the was Oberst's statements on how bad his department is hurting now that residential fees are no longer propping up commercial planning and inspection costs.

Not a word about maybe increasing those fees so they would cover direct costs. But then when you have someone like COBA making close to 200 contacts with the City to whine over proposed fee increases, they just don't happen as needed.

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This FAA thing could really hurt Gordo if he doesn't man up and get his Repug buddies to bury it. But then, sometime in the not too distant future, the FAA may suddenly change their mind "due to Senator Smith's concerns"...

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State pledges $8.96M for 820-job plant

A subsidiary of home retail giant Williams-Sonoma will open a manufacturing plant in Hickory, creating 820 jobs and investing $2.7 million over the next five years, Gov. Mike Easley's office said Monday.

Sutter Street Manufacturing, which already employs about 50 people in Hickory, will open a product development, distribution and upholstered furniture manufacturing facility for Williams-Sonoma (NYSE: WSM).

The new jobs will pay an average of $42,000 plus benefits, ahead of the Catawba County average of $33,332, Easley's office says.

If Sutter Street Manufacturing creates the 820 jobs called for in its agreement with the state and keeps them for 10 years, it could receive a state Job Development Investment Grant worth up to $8.96 million.

"There is a great tradition of furniture-making in our state, and I am glad Williams-Sonoma is bringing it back," Easley said in a statement. "I hope this is the first in a long line of furniture-related industries we will be recruiting with better skill and higher pay."

Boy, we sure didn't do very good with LS, spending over $10M for 350jobs...

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Hey, Marge, there is someone over in BBMLand that needs your input.

http://bendeconomy.informe.com/reasonable-realtor-commission-dt3892.html

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Re: even if there ARE thousands of cheap places to RENT. Thanks.

Just saw a rental house at Widgi. I thought that was prohibited at those fancy types of places. Of course, if I recall correctly, that house was for sale last summer.

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Re: Have you had your head in the sand trap? Widgi Creek has had rentals for years, it's like a mini-Sunriver for vacation rentals.

I work there in the summer, and this is the first time I have ever seen a For Rent sign in front of a house. Quite a few For Sale's, though.

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Where, perhaps, are the signs. I was just there yesterday afternoon, I was there 5 days a week all last summer, we use the roads for shortcuts regularly, I note the signs, and this is the first For Rent sign I have actually seen. I have no idea about rentals through the management or otherwise that are not signed, though, since I'm grounds crew.

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Re: Bingo, you figured out that not all rentals are signed.

You must live out there or something.

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Re: You want people to be scared into pricing their homes super low, low enough so that they sell and the new lows become a precedent leading the market as low as it can go.

Actually, the almost daily foreclosure auctions are doing that already. Example: Pinebrook Pahse III, Block 10, Lot 5, a pretty nice 2-story that looks to be about 2500 sq ft, sold for $329K in Oct, 2005, and was sold at auction for $220K last week. Bank took a $45K bath at that price, but sold it anyway.

The one I'm curious to see repriced is at 23163 Switchback Court in Pronghorn. Sold for $595K in Jan 06, $495K owed on mortgage, due to be auctioned next Monday at 11 AM. That will be interesting.

If your curious to see how many auctions are coming up, search for Affidavit of Mailing / Publication at recordings.co.deschutes.or.us

as of this moment, 202 so far this year, including 39 so far in April. Two more today so far.

Ole Ted Himler is taking a beating, with seven of his properties being auctioned in April. There's only a 5-10 day lag from the mailing date to the auction date, so repricing will happen pretty quickly.

There's a lot of pain out there.

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Re: continuing train wreck theme

Fro this mornings BULL:

"Bend will shell out $275K to settle 3-year-old lawsuit"

Announced with no discussion, according to the article. I didn't go last night, and this wasn't on the agenda, so it must have been discussed in Exec Session. Someone should post the whole article.

The continuing, endless lawsuit losses, water company, pumping station, soon the buses, etc. Makes it even harder to fill potholes and hire cops and firemen.

---

Note the confluence of mine and Marge's posts above:
Me:
If you're curious to see how many auctions are coming up, search for Affidavit of Mailing / Publication at recordings.co.deschutes.or.us...39 so far in April.

Marge:
Just took another look at home sales this month...April(the hot spring month) stands at 33 today.

Will there be more foreclosure auctions than home sales this month? How many of those home sales are auction sales?

This is getting scary. But the quicker we fall, the quicker we get back up.

I've been doing some analysis on SDC's and permits, and things like how our one ERU charge for sewer hookup of $2038 compares to Troutdale's charge of $4426 reveals the true structural problem with the City's finances.

When I get a chance to finish it I'll post the spreadsheet comparing Bend to Troutdale and Ashland.

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I know Buster will hate me for this, but CPST is off the fucking wall today. Huge volume, and it is close to 4X last summers price. This new CEO they got it is really doing a good job.

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=CPST&hl=en&meta=hl%3Den

I happened to sit next to one of the top Public Works guys on Monday, and we discussed my little project again. I'm waiting on real numbers on the methane being vented, and Paul said they should finally have good sensors in by late June. Rather than venting a greenhouse gas that 20 times worse than CO2, we can use it to create usable energy. I like that.

Capstone, 5yr

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Just went to fill the propane tank to grill some steaks, and the guy filling his alongside me stated he lives off Brookswood, in a house he moved into "because my Dad is a builder and he can't sell them..."

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Re: ...why you as a writer resist when I or others ask you to just admit you're actively trying to talk down the market.

I actually don't think that's really possible.


No, we are merely catologing the totally expected collapse of a bubble. Do you truly think that Bend could actually support median housing prices at eight times median income?

It can't. Meaning a collapse is inevitable. We are just talking about it, unlike most.

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Funny how quiet things have become. It's like we know the shit has really hit the fan, the "repricing" of local real estate is in process, and there's not much else for us to do.

It's happening.

So let's keep an eye on the CC, and their "ideas". Budget Work Session next Wednesday...I'll be there.

Facts to agree on:
1) We have enough housing to last us ten years, counting platted subdivisions.

2) Our SDC and permit fees need to be raised to a level that actually supports the departments that rely on them. No more General Fund support, no more one-time land sales to provide support.

3) Transparency, especially when it comes to the endless Executive Sessions. They can at least tell us what the topic are talking about.

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Buster said...

Keep bashing away, though -- I learn a lot here. You have every right to speak freely and you do that very well.

*

Buster just got out of jail for beating that transient with a baseball bat. I got BENDBB to float my $100k bail.

WRT to this assertion, I think 'yellow-beard' is giving ALL these cunts way too much credit.

They're all a bunch of fucking BORING loser renters.

Fact is there were KILLER DEALS last year, this year, and there will be next year.

Talk down the market?? I don't think so, the market here was FUCKED by TEAM Hollern/Capell, &ASS.

99% of the fucking bloggers here are middle age, fat, lazy, blogger-renters. The normal asocial losers.

You think 'Homer' is a fucking marketing guy talking down, no he's just a loser obsessed with his 15 minutes of fame. Look at virtually EVERYONE on this blog, they're a fucking RENTER, even duncan rents his building for his comic shop.

It's all fucking sad.

If these birds had an intention to BUY real-estate they would have already done so when you could still get credit/cash. Now its too fucking late.

I'm simply coming to Homers aid in a twisted fucking way. I'm the only fucking landlord here, and besides BEM, and Dunc&Marge, nobody else here even owns their fucking home.

Talking down the market does nothing here to help the loser's here like Homer & Bruce-Pussy. They're newbies in this town, and by the time it its bottom, they'll be long gone.

If you think the 'bashing' here is about 'bashing bend homes', your wrong, its about 'bashing' the people who created the Bubble, and FUCKED BEND, and those people be Hap Taylor, Dick Borgman ( Les Schwab ), and Mike Hollern; and the people they own.

That's who we're BASHING here, the boss hoggs that OWN BEND.

Nobody here is BASHING Bend RE per-se.

That said, for almost six months PMI has recognized Bend as TOXIC as Sacramento, CA; and HONESTLY I think its MORE toxic.

This is the town that HOLLERN built, and he's going down with it.

Homer & his bruce-pussy, are just minor players; in this kluster-fuck of a town.

- buster

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BruceyPussy wrote on April 19, 2008 5:10 PM:

3) Transparency, especially when it comes to the endless Executive Sessions. They can at least tell us what the topic are talking about.
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BruceyPussy will write on June 30, 2011 4:31PM

4) Transparency is really important when it comes to the secretive Executive Sessions. Some day I am going to write up a complaint and submit it to Judy Stiegler on the Ethics Commission.
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BruceyPussy will write on May 30, 2018 10:31PM:

38) Executive Sessions. The CC can at least tell us that they are having these sessions. They don't bother sending out notices. Maybe somebody should write up a complaint, since what they do is against the law.
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BruceyPussy's grandchild will write on December 20, 2078 10:31PM:

38) Executive Sessions. The CC doesn't hold Exec Sessions anymore. They went the way of Regular Sessions, which stopped happening around 2061. They don't bother sending out notices or nothing. They just publish their decisions without people knowing that any meetings were even held. In fact, they don't bother holding meetings anymore. Hap Taylor's grandson, Hank Taylor (son of Todd Taylor) just makes all the decisions, and doesn't even bother telling the City Council first, they find out along with everybody else, when they read the decisions online.

Maybe I should summarize my 12,346 pages of notes into a complaint form to the Ethics Commisssion?

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bilbo-bend said...
Dunc,

The whole thing honestly is far too negative that said, that said we both know that 'Bend' is 18 months behind.

I saw a complete collapse in sales for most of my businesses back in May of 2007.

In the past week, I got more orders ( all international, and mostly from Australia, Taiwan, and Israel ), more orders than I have seen in the past six months. All in one week!

Why? Because the dollar is now so fucking cheap.

Now back to Bend, I call the recession back in May of 2007, as I know which of my businesses are the best bell-wethers. I don't think that our 'Bend' will really admit 'recession' until this fall, and then it will last two years.

I think that given the order strength I'm seeing right now, and that the past week sales is the same as I saw in the prior six months, ergo I'm now good for the next six months. The INTL folk were the first to bail, on the US scene they stopped doing National purchase orders back in the Spring of 2007, and there was a little in Fall of 2007.

I expect US military to ratchet up spending in 2009.

Bend will be FUCKED big time for the next two years. Our economy as you well know is all tourism, which will ditch as the US tourist does so on HELOC & VISA.

The INTL tourist will NOT come to Bend, not even to see the pregnant man with a beard.

Diversify DUNC, Diversify. SETUP a website, and let the INTL world know what you have, biz in Bend is going to be dry for the next few years, and if you sit and wait for them to walk in you'll starve, I'm sure you'll survive, but why?

Given how much FUCKING time you waste on BLOGGING, if you spent 10% of that energy on a INTL website marketing your 'hard to find product', esoteric shit, ... You would/could sail this recession. Don't put all your eggs in the BEND basket, because they next 2-3 years is going to be fucking Pathetic.

Getting back to 'negative' I have long wanted to go contrarian on Bend, as its now clear that everyone and their chipmunk know its coming down. Trouble is the deer are in the headlight all waiting for non-existant cali's to buy their crapshack, or hot-tub, or TV, ... or comic books. They're NO longer coming.

Do more 'comic' blogging on the INTL level, plug your product, and let folks INTL know you got shit, they got money, and the dollar is cheap. Their has NEVER been a better time to buy USA shit. Explain to people the history, put your creative work into marketing yourself on the INTL level, that is the future, you'll go the way of the dinosaur if you wait for Bend or USA customers.

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jesse felder said....

PMI Group, one of the largest mortgage insurers in the nation, officially categorized Deschutes County as "highest risk" for future home price declines, along with areas such as South Florida, Southern California, Las Vegas and Phoenix.

Needless to say, I don't think they're buying, "the best buyers' market in 20 years," line.
LIV Posted by jessefelder at 3:31 PM

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Central Oregon Real Estate blog said...

Short Sales - Buyers need to be prepared for the long road. We are seeing a lot of short sales hitting our market and many buyers are looking for a great deal. There are a lot of great homes out there, many of them well below the real market value of the home.
This week, I personally had a listing lower the listing price to what will be a short sale. Many agents and buyers alike are “beating down” the door to see this great home and offers are starting to come in. It has amazed me to see what agents are putting in their offers.
A buyer, buying a short sale is not like buying every other home you have looked at. Everything is subject to the lender’s approval. Timelines are different, and you must be prequalified or be able to provide proof of funds if you plan to pay cash.
Most of the time the lender will not approve repairs, maybe the seller will complete a repair as to not have such a big ding on their credit but generally the lender will not. When looking at a short sale knowing if the seller and / or the seller’s agent have a working relationship with the bank is vitally important. Do they have the necessary paperwork ready for the bank? Do they have the additional paperwork ready for you the buyer?
Not every agent has the necessary knowledge to help you through your short sale procedure with success… if you need assistance please ask a lot of questions before choosing your REALTOR®.

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Are you looking for water front property in Central Oregon? You might be surprise to find that most of our waterfront property is actually on the river and not on a lake. Although there are lake properties (see this previous posting) if you are looking for waterfront property in Bend, La Pine, Sunriver or Three Rivers South it will most commonly be found on one of The Deschutes Rivers. The Big Deschutes River is more navigational by boats and is much larger and longer than the Little Deschutes River.

Lots and homes along either of the Deschutes Rivers often sell quickly. Before buying on the river you should be aware of many of the land use rules, zoning, septic and well issues of these properties. Because every property is different having an agent that knows the area can be one of the best choices you can make.

There are many issues to consider when purchasing on the river such as; flood plain, can you build, what kind of septic will be required, how deep will the well need to be and will you need a filtration system for the well? Many lots along the river do not allow building as close to the river as some would like to build. And if you have flood plain on the property a conditional use permit may be required. All of these items can be discovered and most over come with the right due diligence and an agent that knows the area.

Real Estate is local and in Central Oregon, real estate is not just buying property but you are purchasing a lifestyle.

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Woodhill Homes blog said...

In Your Best Interest: Making a Case for Buying Now

Published by Bill Duffey under Woodhill Homes

With today’s real estate market conditions, now is a great time to buy and trade up! “What?” you may say. But when it comes to buying and selling homes, I always suggest people look at the big picture when it comes to trading up. Okay, you may not get a dreamy windfall of cash you would like for the house you are selling, but if you have equity in your current house you can use that as a down payment on a better house. And if you need a better house (one that’s bigger, nicer finishes, different neighborhood, more energy-efficient or whatever), you would be crazy not to upgrade now. You have an outstanding selection to choose from and waiting will only cost you more in the long term. Think about it.

Consider the “Loss” on Selling Your Present Home:

For example, say your present house is worth $300,000, but because of high inventory and few buyers, you must reduce your price by 10%. So, instead of receiving $300,000, you would get $270,000 and “lose” $30,000.

Consider Your Real Profit:

Now, consider this. Say you bought this home 7 years ago and paid $100,000. You’re still ahead $170,000, less costs of sale, aren’t you?

Consider the “Savings” on Buying Your New Home:

If you are planning to move up to a $500,000 house, which is located in the same market, you could probably buy that house at that same 10% discount or $450,000. This would mean you had saved $50,000. So you “lost” $30,000 on the sale of your home. But you “made” $50,000 on the purchase of your new home. Doesn’t that put you $20,000 ahead?

Don’t Forget the Impact of Interest Rates:

Which way are interest rates moving? Are they moving up or moving down? If interest rates are near an all-time low and beginning to inch upwards, waiting could cost you more than you would think. You might not be able to afford to buy a home at any price.

• Each 1/2 point decrease in your interest rate gives you $25,000 more in purchasing power.
• Each 1 point decrease in your interest rate gives you $50,000 more in purchasing power.
• Each 2 point decrease in your interest rate gives you $100,000 more in purchasing power

Right now, you can get real estate in nice areas for prices that we haven’t seen in a while. So what if you take a little less for your current house? In three to five years when the market has fully rebounded you’ll have twice as much equity in the new house as you would ever have been able to build in the old house.

For more on why buying now is in your best interest according to famed money guru Peter Lynch, check out the “Ignore the Headlines” article from Dan Kadlec’s “Right on Your Money” column at Time Magazine. It’s more than just thought provoking.

Read full article here

More on Real Estate in Bend, Oregon

Related Posts:home buying home equity homes for sale new homes woodhill homes

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The state of the housing (rental) industry in Bend, Oregon

Published by WoodHill under Woodhill Homes

The Bend Bulletin has a very interesting article about the housing industry in Bend. It’s not about home sales… but the state of the housing rental industry in Bend.

While the article does bring up an alternative to owning a home in Bend… the truth is still there: you’re renting. I’m not going to say that renting means that you’re practically throwing your money away… but it’s pretty darn close to it.

Mr. Moore brings up the point that more renters in the market + more houses for rent = falling rental prices. And this is certainly true. And while there may be some incentives out there to go the rental route (such as a discounted first month’s rental price or even some free work done on the property if you rent for over a year), you’re still renting… and not owning. I’d much rather put money towards property & a home I could potentially own than one I’m just renting for however long.

Anyway, a nice read for sure and a different perspective on the housing market.

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UtterlyBoring wrote...

BendBroadband Bandwidth Cap Update

If you haven't been following the drama and the outcry surrounding BendBroadband's latest pricing changes, let me sum up what's been going on the last few weeks:

• BendBroadband announced they were going give you more speed, but they were going to cap the bandwidth. Needless to say, this caused quite the outrage, and that post now has 100 comments (and counting), many from BendBroadband representatives. Their response to the outcry was to create a new platinum plan with lower speed, but a higher cap. A calculation spreadsheet was also posted so folks could really see how expensive this could get. BendTel was also featured in the local paper, and made a few subtle jabs at BendBroadband.
• A couple weeks later, the story made national news with it hitting Gizmodo where it then hit the digg front page, as well as a bunch of other sites (you can digg my original post here).

It's been a week or so since this thing hit the wire on a larger scale, and my sources at BendBroadband say they are watching the conversations here and are listening. They will not say, however, if anything will change, but they are listening (still waiting for the new business plans to come out, folks).

One of my original gripes (one that was putting my bandwidth consumption over the edge of some of the tiers) was that middle-of-the-night consumption shouldn't count the same. But something that was pointed out to me privately was a point I didn't think of that makes a bit of sense: The Net Neutrality advocates say that it's basically an all-or-nothing thing when it comes to bandwidth counting -- you can't consider nighttime data from daytime data (even though that's what the power company does). So you're damned if you do, damned if you don't.

A couple protest sites have been created since this all started brewing. One is FixBBB.com, which has been trying to organize a public protest and get more media attention to this cap. They also make a suggestion as to who you can switch to, but I'd recommend avoiding Clearwire and use somebody like Yellowknife or Webformix instead if you're looking for wireless rural Internet. BendTel also provides DSL, but primarily to Business customers.

Another protest site has hit the wire, being run off a BendBroadband home connection (which is bound to push usage up a bit, considering the site's received a few diggs). According to the site, the guy had 214GB of data transfer last month and 15GB between April 10 and 15. Even if he was on the platinum plan, he'd owe nearly $240 last month.

Since I don't have the foggiest idea if BendBroadband will shut his site down for terms-of-service violations, here's the screenshot off his site:

So it all comes down to this: Knowing what you know, if you're using a BendBroadband connection, what are your plans? Are you moving or are you staying? If you're moving, where to? I'm still exploring my options, and will reveal my decision at a later date, but I wanted to see what everybody else was doing as well.

Update on 4/17: Welcome Bulletin readers. All the relevant posts with all the discussions are linked above. I haven't had time to read the article yet, but will comment here when I have a chance to do so.

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BendBulletin said...

Driving tourism to Central Oregon

In tight economic times, a region dependent on tourism redirects its efforts to lure motorists

By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin

Published: April 20. 2008 4:00AM PST

Responding to the economic downturn, Central Oregon’s tourism officials plan to refocus their marketing efforts toward an audience that can reach the region by car.

Lodging taxes, which indicate the health of the tourism industry, fell 9.6 percent in December and 1.9 percent in January in Bend, and remained flat in February, compared with those same months, respectively, last year.

In Deschutes County, room tax collections were down 5.7 percent in December from December 2006. But they recovered, showing a 20.1 percent increase in January and a 7.1 percent increase in February, compared with those same months last year. Deschutes County’s room taxes typically come from resort properties that draw visitors who book further in advance than Bend’s mostly hotel and motel properties.

Tourism growth is expected to be flat to moderate this summer, said Alana Audette, president and CEO of the Central Oregon Visitors Association, which promotes the region’s estimated $542.5 million annual tourism industry.

“The first quarter of 2008 was not as healthy as we’d like to see it, and we have a tough summer to beat from 2007,” Audette said. “August was a record-breaker.”

COVA may reduce its national marketing efforts and reallocate some resources to Oregon, Washington and Northern California, Audette said.

“The only shift may be pulling back from national marketing,” she said. “We may pull slightly from the L.A. market, but it’s important to maintain a presence there. We could take a minor portion.”

If COVA shifts some of its resources from the national and Southern California campaigns to the Oregon market, it would use the same movie-trailer concept from the winter TV campaign, and convert it for summer, she said.

The campaign, called “Real Winter,” flooded the Portland market with ads promoting Central Oregon’s snow-capped peaks, ski runs and blue skies as an escape from the dreary, traffic-clogged metropolitan areas. The ads were made in partnership with Mt. Bachelor.

The same concept could be put together quickly and affordably next month using stock footage of summer attractions, Audette said.

Sunriver Resort, one of the region’s largest tourism promoters with a $2 million advertising budget, also plans a greater emphasis on a regional drive market, stretching from southern Washington to Northern California, said Jay Lee, director of sales and marketing.

This summer, Sunriver will place ads in regional newspapers around the state, Lee said.

The resort also will target more niche travel groups to compete with other resorts in the region and the state, he said.

“Our strategy is to send out offers to smaller groups and be more targeted in our direct mail pieces,” Lee said. “We used to send out 10,000 pieces of direct mail. Now we’re sending out five different batches to more targeted groups, such as golfers, foodies and spa customers.”

The Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau, which markets tourism for the city, also will try to draw visitors from within the state.

In May, the visitor bureau will launch new radio spots in the Portland metro area and cable television ads in Salem and Eugene, said Doug LaPlaca, president and CEO of the visitor bureau.

Television ads will feature scenes of fly-fishing on the Deschutes River, mountain biking, kayaking and golf, and a shot of the Tower Theatre.

“We’re trying to position Bend as an idealistic escape from the real world, where people come to have fun in a place where blue skies persist,” said LaPlaca, who became Bend’s top tourism official in August.

He will submit his 2008-09 fiscal year business plan to the Bend City Council on May 7. The plan contains 14 strategies that he hopes will generate increased room tax revenue, despite the slowing economy, he said.

“When looking at the national and regional downturn in the economy, people will still travel, but they will go to driving destinations rather than flying,” LaPlaca said. “That heightens the importance of marketing in drive markets, such as Portland and the Willamette Valley, as opposed to destination markets where people would fly to get to Bend.”

That logic makes sense because Americans are still traveling, but opting for destinations closer to home, according to the state’s top tourism official.

“Individuals still want to take vacations, but rising gas prices and what’s expected to be higher airfares down the road changes how they will take vacations,” said Todd Davidson, executive director for Travel Oregon. “Central Oregon’s tourism marketing professionals are, very strategically, thinking about how they will change their marketing tactics, and responding to consumer trends.”

Another major component of the Bend visitor bureau’s marketing approach will be its completely revamped Web site, which will launch June 1, LaPlaca said.

“Travelers are using Web sites and online resources more than ever to gather information for their travel,” he said. “It will be an ongoing process to establish an industry-leading Web site, which will have breadth, quality and content to convey all the tourism interests in Bend.”

When it launches, the site’s home page will lead into about a dozen sections that will focus on specific tourism content areas, including a history and heritage site, an arts and entertainment site, and a cycling site, LaPlaca said.

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cat stevens said...