I heard from a wise, wise man that Shit Is Just A Fart That Refused To Give Up.
If that's so, then I hope this blog has achieved some measure of it's purpose, and can be best portrayed as a Gigantic Pile Of Shit. One of my primary goals was to give SOME alternative to the "Lake Wobegon" Kool-Aid Daze puked forth by The Bulletin, and other Bend media outlets:
The Lake Wobegon effect is the human tendency to overestimate one's achievements and capabilities in relation to others. It is named for the fictional town of Lake Wobegon from the radio series A Prairie Home Companion, where, according to the presenter, Garrison Keillor, "all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average." In a similar way, a large majority of people claim to be above average; this phenomenon has been observed among drivers, CEOs, stock market analysts, college students, police officers and state education officials, among others. Experiments and surveys have repeatedly shown that most people believe that they possess attributes that are better or more desirable than average. The term is also used to describe a perceived tendency to treat children as "special" in order to boost their self-esteem, even though the children may only be average or even underperforming.
I don't know who posted this, but this is the best description yet of Bend. EVERYTHING here is 9 standard deviations above the mean... at least according to the local media.
And Bend is pretty sweet. It's great. Hell, living somewhere & declaring it a shitpile is just pathological, unless you're trying to achieve some ulterior motive.... ahem. I still really like it here. It's just that we ain't THAT great. We are a solid, single STD above the mean, which is pretty damn good.
But we're pricing ourselves at $40/lb prime rib, when we're really $6.99 material. Bend simply isn't competitive anymore. How many times have you bought $1.99 ground beef in the past year, compared to $40/lb Ruths Chris hyper-premium prime rib? I'll bet not often. That's what's happening to Bend.
You can see it in Doug Farmers November numbers: 102 solds of ALL residential types in Bend in Nov. You can see in my Google spreadsheet, that this is The Lowest dollar volume EVER in Doug's data. This is DOWN almost 70% since June 2006 volume. Hyper-expensive goods ALWAYS sell in tiny volume, EVEN IF THEY'RE WORTH IT. "tucker" wrote in the comments that "82 sold Nov. 97".
I don't know where we're going, but at todays prices we will either become a FAR smaller town, or we'll suffer from a hyper-inflation induced depression. That's it. 70% of the commission dollars are gone from 1 1/2 years ago. Do you think a 70% revenue decline in what was far and away the largest industry in this town from 18 months ago is good?
Don't know if anyone's noticed, but Paul-doh been BUSY! Geez, never 2 seconds to post or comment. So I might take on a less "verbose" format in the future... like starting... NOW. At least I hope I will. And maybe a bit less ranting. It's NOT because of whacky comments asking for such, but simply that if people don't know to cut price by now, and they don't cut enough, their house simply won't sell. And I don't suppose a blog telling them to do so will convince them otherwise. So maybe I'll take Tim's advice & post shorter, but more frequent posts.
So for today, I saw this over on BendBB:
mookie: New changes to the lien at The Plaza as of today -- appears the buyers of the four sold units have been added to the claim against Becky and Tommy. Anyone got a better idea what this means than me?
Check the clerk's site: http://recordings.co.deschutes.or.us/Search.asp
Last name is "Harvest LLC" to access Plaza-related documents.
Then "Shot down in flames":
The way I read it, is the few unit owners have also been named on the construction claim of lien. So not only did they buy homes in a failed project, but now they are named in a lien. What a mess.
mookie: That's what it looks like to me as well...I guess the question is, is this typical? Legal?
It would seem like once Bex and Tom sell the unit, the buyer ought to be out of the way of any liens. But maybe things work differently in the condo world.
I'm not the most Plaza sympathetic guy out there, but I have a tough time understanding how a third party buyer would be on the hook for the seller's misdeeds.
Where's the bulletin board lawyer? Or maybe some all-purpose know-it-all like Timmy?
Bend Bear: Completely legal, and very common in situations like this. What it means for the four owner/flippers, is that they are no longer able to even list their units. This one is going to get a lot worse, and standing by my prediction of apartmenting these things once Umpqua gets them back. The funny thing is Umpqua also provided financing for the most expensive unit that is/was listed. They were bullish on that project as recent as September.
bottom feeder: Problem is, other than a handful of units, none are finished on the inside. So to turn it into an apartment building is going to take another $20K or so per unit. The Plaza will is the monument to Bend's previous RE exuberance.
It's really too bad. I've said 100X, that I think Becky is a sweet, personable gal, and it's too bad this had to happen to anyone.
But there are people out there, who are still buying into The Bend Dream, and I've beat the analogy to death that dying on the slopes of Everest is a Good Reason to TEMPER CONGENITAL OPTIMISM. If you DO NOT, they will haul you out. Becky is learning this.
Anyone have any further info on this Plaza problem?
"optimist" posted this:
Bend is a marvelous place to invest. I read all of this, and up until now I withheld my opinion.
I'm an active Bend investor, and have bought dozens of homes in Bend during 2005-2006. I paid over $100k down for each home. I paid less than $150/sqft. I always borrow at 5.5% for 15 years. My units are 100% occupied with positive cash flows.
The negativity I read here leads me to believe that you are all renters, and have no idea of how profitable it is to own real estate in Bend. The values are not going to go down, and people can only make money, and lots of money by buying Bend Real Estate.
There has never been a better time to buy a home in Bend.
Huh. Actually there is a way to ALMOST ALWAYS be cash flow positive, as optimist defines it here: Simply pay cash. If you ever get anything back, you are cash flow positive. Can you pay $1,000,000 for a house & rent it for $100/mo & be cash flow positive? Sure, simply pay $1,000,000 cash. Whether it's a Good Investment & the slightest bit competitive with what you could get elsewhere is a totally different question. But more power to you optimist, if it makes you feel better.
My own feeling is that YOU HAVE NOT BOUGHT DOZENS OF HOMES putting $100K down. You're a desperate Realtor who is starting to get gaunt & thin. If you've even bought one home in 2006 & have not tried to sell it, how do you KNOW if you've made money? Of course you don't. But the idea that ANYONE has bought DOZENS of homes in Bend putting down MILLIONS & feels SANGUINE about the future & WILL NOW BUY MORE, is assinine. Go out & list a home dude. We've all been inoculated from Kool-Aid poisoning here.
"bruce" has put up good stuff on Juniper Ridge at juniper-ridge.info. It's probably a better source of info than here. The guys doing a lot of work on the topic. I get whaled on for not posting JR news 24/7. I am not well enough informed to do so. There are better sources. BendBubble.blogspot.com is another.
OK, maybe that's enough for today. I'll TRY a mid-week post & see how she goes....
151 comments:
Thanks for the shoutout :)
Remember the blog at juniper-ridge-info.blogspot gets updated more regularly, the latest on the pricing vs. SDCs issue. Kind of funny reading "The Boot" in the SORE about charging schools SDCs and not seeing anything about LS getting off for nada.
Re: "There has never been a better time to buy a home in Bend."
One of you guys with the data--just exactly how many homes sold for less than $150 sq ft in '05 and '06?
I don't remember too many under that price level. Certainly not "dozens". Hell, there aren't too many now even with all the haircuts being taken in the last few months.
I'm thinking in about 14 months it my be a decent time to buy. But what the hell do I know--I'm just a lousy renter that got here in the spring of '05. In fact, the fiasco of signing a lease on a flipper that was yanked out from under us before we even moved opened my eyes about Bend and some of its "business practices" very quickly.
I'm curious what effect the builder liens will have on Becky's ability to sell units. In some ways the builders lien is a Faustian Bargain of sorts: They want their money, but the lien makes it damn near impossible to sell additional units.
Would you buy a condo unit where you KNOW the first action is you'll have a lien slapped on you? If Becky doesn't disclose, she'll get hammered with lawsuits... talk about your cluster fuck.
Re: I;m curious to what effect the builder liens...
See the Homebuyer Protection Act (ORS 778):
"The Homebuyer Protection Act (HPA) protects buyers against construction liens filed in county record after the sale of the property where such liens arise out of new construction, additions or remodeling within 90 days of the date of the sale. The law took affect January 1, 2004 and applies to residential property sales that close on or after January 1, 2004.
...
Who must comply with the HPA?
A residential property owner selling –
* A new single family residence, condominium unit or residential building (containing four or fewer dwelling units.
Or
* An existing single family residence, condominium unit or residential building (containing four or fewer dwelling units) that had at least $50,000 worth of improvements, additions or remodeling completed within 90 days of the date of the sale.
What are some questions I can ask myself to determine if the property I’m selling is affected by the HPA?
* Is this a newly constructed home?
* Is this the first time the home has been sold?
* Have I had more than $50,000 in construction work, improvements or remodeling done to my home in the last three months?
If the answer is yes to any of these questions, you may need to comply with the HPA.
What happens if a seller doesn’t comply with the HPA?
Failure of the seller to provide the HPA Notice of Compliance form is a Class A violation, which subjects the violator to a fine of up to $600. The Construction Contractors Board (CCB) may also impose a civil penalty of up to $100.
If the seller is required to provide protection as outlined in the HPA, and fails to do so, or fails to obtain a signed waiver from the buyer, the buyer may take legal action against the seller to recover up to twice the amount of actual damages."
Basically, this requires full disclosure prior to sale, with a whopping fine of up to $700 total. More important are the clauses specifically allowing the buyer to file suit and requiring 25% of the sales price to be held in escrow until the claims of lien have been paid.
Can't imagine anyone buying, especially in this market, with this kind of stuff hanging over the transaction.
Wonder if there is not more new construction or major remodels with construction liens hanging over them?
GoBend has posted Nov data:
AVG: $428,775 ($404,153 last month)
MEDIAN: $340,000 (vs $319,950)
DOM: 172 days (vs 172)
Pending: 109 (vs 143)
Sold: 91 (vs 108)
Other interesting bits:
Bend acreage properties were SLAMMED:
AVG $551,090 vs $819,794 last month (DOWN 32% IN ONE MONTH)
MEDIAN $424,950 vs $710,000 last month (DOWN 40% IN ONE MONTH)
Redmond MEDIANS $221K vs $299,950 (DOWN 26% IN ONE MONTH)
Sisters residential: AVG $405,469 vs $596,399 (DOWN 32% IN ONE MONTH)
Even the Very Stable (to date) Sunriver IMPLODED:
MEDIANS $534K vs $909 last month (DOWN 41% IN ONE MONTH)
There also seems to be a RATIONAL NEGATIVE CORRELATION between price & volume: Where prices fell, volume was good... conversely in Bend where prices held up, volume went into a black hole.
Of course this is what I've been prattling on about for many moons... high prices will simply end many RE careers as a consequence of a hyper-inflation induced mega-depression.
Wanna keep your job? Drop prices in half. The pricing of GROUND BEEF applies directly to homes: $1.99/lb product sells billions per year, where $40/lb sells in the hundreds of thousands. BILLIONS will support an RE industry of many thousands in ANY INDUSTRY, while a couple of hundred thou will barely make the payment on one Realtor macro-shack.
YOU DECIDE.
The following Tetherow "press release" is ALL over, note the title "Home Sales", NOT A FUCKING HOME has sold at Tetherow, what has SOLD is a few lots, but have they been 'recorded"? This is what counts.
Home Sales News is Not All Bad; Oregon Development Closes on $12 Million in Homesite Sales in One Month
Tetherow's Success Defies Real Estate Trends
BEND, Ore.--(Business Wire)--If you think all of the news coming out of the housing industry is
doom and gloom, think again. A new development near Bend, Ore., closed
on 19 homesites in one month for a value close to $12 million or about
$631,000 per lot.
Internationally famous golf course architect David McLay Kidd and
his wife Jill recently closed on the first homesite at Tetherow, a new
700-acre golf resort community near Bend in central Oregon. They were
joined by 18 more buyers in the last month. The 19 lots have a
combined value of close to $12 million.
This reminds me of a conversation I had in September with a builder that had been around for quite awhile, built hundreds of homes in Bend, the Running Y near Klamath Falls, etc. We were discussing pricing and he firmly stated his belief that pricing was going to hold or only drop slightly because "...builders can't drop prices anymore or they won't even break even."
I didn't have the heart to tell him that buyers really don't care if the seller loses money or not.
Home Sales News is Not All Bad; Oregon Development Closes on $12 Million in Homesite Sales in One Month
Haven't you heard? You can LIE.... errr, MARKET your way out of the doldrums!!!
builders can't drop prices anymore or they won't even break even.
This applies to sellers of ALL types. Many are in short sale situations where they simply CANNOT drop price below a certain dollar amount, because there is NO MONEY available at close. No more Credit Cards, no more Neg ARMS, no more unsecured BS loans, no more auto equity loans, no loans from parents... NADA.
It's THE MINSKY MOMENT folks. I've said before that this is what ENDS DOMINANT CIVILIZATIONS. Romans, Greeks, England... all are dragged down by having their balance sheet go upside down on them one way or another.
Regarding liens, here's my experience.
First of all a CONDO is worth NOTHING until the ENTIRE project is DONE. This is NOT mexico, where rebar is permanently sticking out of walls and roofs. The Plaza is NOT done, and therefore nothing can truly be 'SOLD', occupied.
Somebody may have 'bought' an unfinished condo, but that is there fucking problem. The fact is the CONDO's are NOT finished. Thus folks are still working on them, and they're NOT getting paid, which means that every contractor and supplier that does work to finish them, must file a lien. The lien basically does one thing, it tells the bank, that they cannot be first-in-title, until the lien is satisfied. Most of the money for the project is coming from a bank ( Umpqua ), the liens are a nice way of telling the bank that the developer ( becky ), has bad record in paying bills, or the supplier is very worried, and wants to get paid first in the event of bankruptcy.
I guess a few Plaza Units, have sold as folks have posted here evidence from DIAL. Note, these are uncompleted units, because the The Plaza, ain't done, until the WHOLE project is DONE, this is how condo's work, and the essential danger of condos, you have huge project, and generally you cannot sell off 10%, or 1%, because its like 100% of NOTHING this is critical. In sub-div you can sell a completed home, or lots', but you don't have to finish the whole project in order to SELL. Thus, CONDOS are the riskiest biz there is, and note that ol becky came late to the party.
Let's say somebody paid cash, for uncompleted condo, because becky wanted the cash, the buyer had the cash, and the deal was too good to be true. Thus you have an owner, I doubt a bank would have bought an uncompleted condo. Generally they're pre-sold with a deposit of $500, and 10%. We know 'one' got recorded so thus it sold, and thus most likely was cash.
The uncompleted condos can have liens placed anytime someone does work or has materials delivered. The fact that someone new, and not beck is listed as the owner, simply means that becky has become the general-contractor for the property, the lien is NOT assigned to a person, but is recorded against a property. In this case the legal 'owner' is this new buyer, and thus they get the liens. This is completely fair, the problem of course the buyer paid for a complete unit, and is waiting for becky to pay the bills.
The bad thing here for ALL, which why I stress the 100% issue is that somebody has to finance this thing to completion. It's MOST likely NOT going to happen, our "BUYER" is fucked.
Lastly, note there are 100's of complexes like this in PDX right now stalled. There are dozens in Bend. We are in a CONDO fucking glut. I posted back in April 07, and I'll post it again. Prior to April 07, you could borrow money from any bank and build a CONDO COMPLEX that like the Tower of Babel. In April 07, they changed the rules, even for pending projects, that said 25% pre-sold "REALLY SOLD", or NO MONEY. Since April 07, 1,000's of Oregon Condo projects have come to a HALT. The money is NOT coming.
Here we are in Dec 07, where in the FUCK are these rich people in Bend? They could easily finish Becky's Condo Complex with their 'golf budget'.
You think David Kidd paid full "market value" , guarantee his was free no money out of pocket, his payment for the design. Whatever, nice PR firm jingle. I talked to one of said "buyers' over weekend, he pulled his offer as he thinks he can pick up a lot in tetherow in 2 years for h alf the price if not less. I agree. Why buy now. They will be sliced and diced the next 3-5 years.
Probably a few new owners also of the resort.
builders can't drop prices anymore or they won't even break even
*
Not true, you can 'short-sale' developments, just like you short-sale homes.
Its better for someone to DUMP a sub-division at 80% of debt, than to let it fall to 10% of debt, like what has happened to bbb-abx subprime-bonds.
It's critical to get out, study your fucking Great-Depression, or hell Homers post last week of Japan RE, it was a slow slide in Japan for ten years DOWN, DOWN, ...
The Great Depression ( mcElvaine ) saw homes goes south from 1929 to 1938, DOWN, DOWN
This is WHY Hollern is DUMPING lots, and Tetherow, and anybody that can get cash now and DUMP their sub-division.
Today a BANK is DAMN LUCKY to get back say 80% of their capital. Let's say builder is already under water, and in theory he cannot go lower, its better to arrange a short-sale, and DUMP the project TODAY, than wait for tomorrow. This COLLAPSE is going to be BIG, and smart BOYS that can get 90% out today, are going to be looking really fucking smart in 1-2 years.
Lastly, to bruce you comment that you want to buy a home in 1-2 years, I stress to you that there will be NO money available. If a government law is passed denying the investors their interest-rate promised, your going to see a complete absence of lending money. If you want to BUY a home, the price is NOT what you look at, what you look at is the availability of money, and the door is going to get shut, very fucking soon.
The problem with this blog is you and other habitual posters continually adjust the facts to fit the theory. Anyone with a different experience is shouted down or accused of being a "desperate realtor". Sort of reminds me of Bush.
You think David Kidd paid full "market value" , guarantee his was free no money out of pocket, his payment for the design.
*
David Kidd owns Homes with his name all over the world, just like Trump, there are 100's of Trump projects.
WSJ a few weeks ago had a story about all these Trump property's collapsing, because people found ou that they didn't have a fucking thing to do with Trump. People were actually 'leasing' his 'good' name, and putting on projects for 'good-will' value.
Now jump to fucking David Kidd, its the same fucking deal, every golf course in the world is using his 'good name', You don't read anything about Tetherow without seeing the name 'david kidd', they're just play the Trump game. Once a name its over-used, then it has no value, once Tetherow is brought to a halt, because there are too many fucking golf courses, visit EDCO website, there are over 24 high-end golf courses in the Bend area, and MORE coming on line.
The WSJ has HUGE fucking Tetherow ad's this weekend, in the RE section.
All over the world their current press-release is running "homes are selling in Bend", what a fucking JOKE, lots of sold, a few, with a couple dollar deposit, but NOT a fucking HOME has sold in Bend, there are NO fucking HOMES @ Tetherow, we all know that.
Anyone with a different experience is shouted down or accused of being a "desperate realtor".
*
Like old brucy a few months ago, you come into this forum, and state what you want un-censored. If your full of shit we'll call you on it. Eventually bruce backed up his assertion with beef, and now he has credibility.
You play the PC ( politically correct ) card, but you don't post your fucking issue, and to add insult you say we're like DUBYA.
In response all I can say, is that we have killed nobody, nor have we dropped bombs, nor have we denied habeas-corpus.
Different fucking experience, the five major regulars here all come from completely different diverse fields, I myself have been doing real-estate for over 40 years.
I do concur one statement with DUBYA - "BRING IT ON".
If you have something to say, then say it,...
The problem with this blog is you and other habitual posters continually adjust the facts to fit the theory. Anyone with a different experience is shouted down or accused of being a "desperate realtor".
Prove us wrong. Post DIAL info.
Basically, this requires full disclosure prior to sale, with a whopping fine of up to $700 total.
Whoa! $700 fines pretty much guarantee that condo sellers will be ULTRA-COMPELLED TO ALWAYS TELL THE TRUTH.
Although I'm sure title searches will do the job. Breeze will pretty much HAVE TO tell the truth, cuz she KNOWS the title company WILL. I say again: CLUSTER FUCK.
Anyone with a different experience is shouted down or accused of being a "desperate realtor".
Prove us wrong. Post DIAL info.
*
There are over 2,000 'desperate realtors' in Bend, certainly the population has dropped, as smart people started leaving two years ago when the party ended.
Let's say 1 in 30 of Bend is a 'desperate realtor', that's a lot.
By definition, any realtor in Bend is Desperate, as their total revenue is down 90% to date, that 2,000 sharks feeding over one bucket of carrion.
Homer, we don't our Political-Correct person's issue, because they haven't told us, it may not even be about real estate. It may very well be a sodomy question, as the person to seems to be obsessed with DUBYA, and we know from abu-ghraib that republicans have used Iraq as a pretext for sexual sadomasochism. Forcing adult males to perform strange sex-acts is quite prevalent in both US prisons, and US military prisons under DUBYA.
The MEDIAN & AVG of Madras & Prineville homes with acreage was coincidentally EXACTLY THE SAME: $0.
Zero acreage properties in Madras & Prineville sold in Nov.
There are over 2,000 'desperate realtors' in Bend, certainly the population has dropped, as smart people started leaving two years ago when the party ended.
According to Doug Farmers data, dollar volume for ALL RESIDENTIAL sales was $2.635MM. Split 2,000 ways that is $1,315 for the LISTING BROKER, SELLING BROKER, and their respective franchises. So that's $425 TAKE HOME PAY FOR THE AVERAGE BROKER.
Thank the Lord this is LAKE WOBEGON & every single Bend Realtor makes 5,000% of the Average. Otherwise we'd be fucked.
dollar volume for ALL RESIDENTIAL sales was $2.635MM
That's COMMISSION DOLLAR VOLUME. $2.635MM (assuming 6%... which is damn dubious)
builders can't drop prices anymore or they won't even break even
*
This is been re-hashed before, but repetition is the essence of this group.
Most builder/developers saw this coming two years ago, Toll Brothers hit peak in 2004, by 2005 buiders/developers were dumping projects in Bend.
Anybody still holding today is fucked, this is why HOLLERN ( BROOKS ) is having fire sales on lots at all his 100's of Central Oregon Projects.
Many developers/builders SOLD their entire project in 2005 at a loss, to get out, again its better to walk with 90% of your TOTAL-NET-WORTH, than 10%.
WRT to developers who have LOST all their net-worth, most developers I know kept going back to the table on every deal, and putting their cash all on the table and saying, this time I made a million, next time I'll make ten million, and quit, and move, ...
Most developers own the lots, that was the collateral used, the bank paid for infrastructure, and built a few houses. The projects at a standstill, you either sell the lots ( but still make money ), or you sell the entire project WHOLESALE.
Not many WHOLESALE projects have sold, that's why you have tons of lots for sale, and they're selling. Cheap compared to 2005.
Let's Not forget that most of this land cost nothing, and so if a developer can get $100k for a lot, they're still making money.
The major problem I see with developer and builders in Bend, is this poker game, where they kept putting ALL their money back in the game for one more deal. The ones that went back in 2005, are hurting because there are NO buyers anymore, nobody is coming to Bend to build.
In 2005 you could sell a shitting little 5k-sqft lot on the westside for $300k, builders were coming up from cali and buying them, thinking they could build a $150k home, and sell the package for $750k, there lots of of these lots in Bend, just sitting, and losing money, and note these people largely paid cash, because thats the collateral the bank likes to see.
The smart boyz that played the Bend game are GONE, the ones still here, are here because they're stuck.
that is $1,315 for the LISTING BROKER, SELLING BROKER, and their respective franchises.
Hmmmm... I keep "PREDICTING" that major Old Mill Franchises will shut down, when clearly it's NOT a prediction. It's a simple foregone conclusion, no prediction about it.
It's MATH... not prediction. "Prediction" has some measure of error, and this doesn't. I WILL HAPPEN.
I WILL HAPPEN.
Uhhhh... "IT WILL HAPPEN". I have unfortunately already happened. I think.
Does anyone have any toilet paper?
This is NOT mexico...
Who said this blog ain't educational?
I have in fact confirmed the above statement, via Norma DuBois:
"This is Bend, Oregon and people want to live here."
I stand humbled before the mental Giants that inhabit local RE offices. Whenever I want to know Where The Fuck I Am, I can easily check with Norma.
It's MATH... not prediction. "Prediction" has some measure of error, and this doesn't. I WILL HAPPEN.
*
Long ago I predicted that the entire 'old-mill' would implode, and all the buildings would become the UnivOregon@Bend.
http://bendbubble.blogspot.com/2007/07/this-is-story-about-terrible-mistake.html
The analysis of how ALL the office's in the Old Mill area will implode is all going according to plan.
Fuck Victoria Secret or Red Robin, the UofO@Bend would be one of the nicest campuses in the world, and that in itself would in time recruit world class scientists to make Bend really into a silicon valley, and incubate its own googles, ...
The 2000+ realtors you speak of are not just in Bend. They are all over CO From Madras to Prineville to LaPine and Sisters including everywhere in between. FYI 50% of all realtors sold 97.7% of all CO RE in 2007. That left 2.3 % for the other 1050. Which is about 5k to split with the office.
The problem with this blog is you and other habitual posters continually adjust the facts to fit the theory. Anyone with a different experience is shouted down or accused of being a "desperate realtor". Sort of reminds me of Bush.
*
Buster was bullied by the other kids when he was young, and now he's getting back at the world by being a cyber-bully. Pathetic isn't it.
Buster was bullied by the other kids when he was young, and now he's getting back at the world by being a cyber-bully. Pathetic isn't it.
*
Cyber Bullying would in mee mind (IMHO) be a youngin's sport, to suggest that an old geezer could be a 'cyber bully' in Lake Wobegon (Bend), where every Realtor is a beautiful MILF, and every child is exceptional, ... To suggest that an old Geezer could intimidate the best minds of 'Mirror (Wobegon) Pond', is quite pathetic.
The old geezer bend-bust, simply calls them as he see's them.
Just found ALL listings in UPPER TERRACE (aka The Plaza) have been pulled, INCLUDING RESALES.
She's getting ugly.
The Plaza units can still be accessed by clicking on the "featured listings" button of her website.
WTF? Just re-ran MLS query & Upper Terrace is back up with 16 listings... WTF! It wasn't the javascript screwy shit either.
Although "The Plaza" is GONE from it's usual front page position on BeckyBreeze.com. There are ZERO links to her "Plaza" area anymore. Can't find it.
The Plaza units can still be accessed by clicking on the "featured listings" button of her website.
Yup, you CAN still view her Plaza listings.... but her whole Plaza dedicated page seems to be gone.
I wanna know what the hell is up with MLS? Gone one minute, here the next. How f-'d up is that?
Regardless, Becky is NOT directly positioning The Plaza as her primary marketing target. She knows advertising units that immediately get a LIEN SLAP is even below her.
Something funky is happening. Maybe she went by Umpqua with a box full of keys & crammed it in the lobby ATM....
I think others may have gotten the same ZERO result on MLS that I got, given BendBB chatter.
Anyway, I pulled the short-lived ADDENDUM on the post.
Screwy.
This is NOT mexico...
Who said this blog ain't educational?
*
Bend will be just like Mexico, when this boom, comes to its final halt which will be very soon, there will be 100's of unfinished buildings.
Why keep dumping money? Investors are trying to stop the loss.
Todays New York Times and slate.com are full of story's about how Wall Street people are getting laid off.
Look around, not much will change, everything will come to a halt. In a few years when all this 1/2 built shit starts rusting and falling apart, Bend will be Tijuana.
The old geezer bend-bust, simply calls them as he see's them.
*
Maybe you're right, maybe buster is simply afflicted with coprolalia.
Yup, you CAN still view her Plaza listings.... but her whole Plaza dedicated page seems to be gone.
*
It's still there.
http://www.beckybreeze.com/PageManager/Default.aspx/PageID=1004802
The people who sell today at a loss what they bought in 2005 will feel like fools today but will feel like geniuses in two years.
If you're trying to sell you simply MUST get out now while the getting is half-good.
People who say it's bullshit that prices can go down have to realize that there are builders making money building nice $250k houses on the East coast on golf courses.
The difference? There are a few. Bend's sky-high land price. That'll be fixed when people stop coming here (rate of pop growth has already dropped by half).
A real problem: Being in the middle of a desert. Getting bricks here is costly. Even getting lumber and steel here is costly. But if our economy hits the brakes, and that affects the world (people are starting to back off the idea that a US recession won't hit the world hard), watch commodities tumble.
You can buy in Sisters for less than $200K, so why would you want to buy in Bend?
Sisters acerage is going up, (6%) while other areas are going down.
Can't believe IHateToBurstYourBubble fell for the typical glitches found at the COR website. One has to wonder how many folks didn't bother to research Bend further because of how faulty the COR website is. That's the problem with this blog, is its full of 1/2 truths in the comments and some of them get picked up by IHateToBurstYourBubble.
That's the problem with this blog, is its full of 1/2 truths ....
Do two 1/2 truths make a full truth? If so we can combine the halves into whatever we want. for example:
She's getting ugly. You can buy her Sisters for less than $200K.
Ok BB2 Gangbangers,
If Bend is SO bad (and Oregon) why do you stay? Why not, oh I don't know ... move? (Old timers need not reply.)
Is it a case of "the devil you know is better than the devil you don't"? or what?
And NO I'm NOT a real estate agent. Just curious.
Thx
Some of us will move. Some of us won't.
There are people moving out (they are still outnumbered by people moving in). Someone charted the price differntial between UHaul coming and going between here and SF. The "to Bend" price is coming down and the "from Bend" price is going up.
The "to Bend" price is coming down and the "from Bend" price is going up.
*
Better leave quick before the price gets too high and you're stuck here forever.
RE: 1) coprolalia, 2) CORS is stupid, 3) why do you stay here?
1) I'm sure BB2's foul mouth existed long before his blog, 2) yes, always take the listings as suspect, and 3) because so far it is financially amenable and it is a nice place. Although the last 36 hours are starting to remind me of Wisconsin...
Hey I'm a 22 year old girl. 36-24-36, 120LB, blonde, single, I have been reading this blog forever.
I think I'm in love with BendBust, I love the grandfather type, they make me so horny. My mother is a realtor, and she says I need to get involved with an older man, preferably one with money. How can I find BendBust??
Maybe you're right, maybe buster is simply afflicted with coprolalia.
(*)
I can see your point, but why would this group, make an old geezer afflicted, or I should say, dilapidated with Corprolaia into their mascot??
It just doesn't make, unless of course the water in Bend drives everyone eventually into a Corporlaiac? Maybe its not the water, maybe its the lying, and denial? There is no doubt that Corprolaia is the #1 ailment in Bend of those over 30. Is this normal distribution? Or is Bend exceptional, in the Wobegon sense?
That's the problem with this blog, is its full of 1/2 truths ....
*
Why is that folks that make such statements never say anything?
One thing about this group, and me included, is if you ask us what time it is, we'll not only tell you how to make a clock, we tell you the history and meaning of time.
I think the 'real' fucking problem is that 99% of Bend is hood-winked 24/7 by the BULL & SORE, and then along comes this blog with a few folks that aren't afraid of using their brains, and have NO FUCKING MONEY in the game, and nothing to fucking lose, and tell the truth, and it just drive the liars ( majority of bend ) out of their fucking mind.
Just my humble fucking opinion.
The people who sell today at a loss what they bought in 2005 will feel like fools today but will feel like geniuses in two years.
-- timmy twat
*
Timmy Twat, speaketh the truth. You can bail today at 80% of cost or walk in two years at 40%, your future is in your fucking hands.
Note, we who tell the fucking truth have NO FUCKING SKIN in the game.
We can give a fuck one way or the other whether you get hosed or not, just a casual observation from those of us that have been around for too fucking long, and seen this fucking play before.
That's the problem with this blog, is its full of 1/2 truths...
Hmmm... you mean like these?
"Six of the seven drew offers at the asking price before the reservation period ended last Friday, Coldwell Banker Morris Real Estate broker Norma DuBois said. Five drew multiple bids, which prompted a follow-up bidding period. The competition may bump the prices up even further."
"Local real estate agent Becky Breeze and her husband are building a 42-unit condominium project in the Old Mill District. Breeze already has sold most of her units. She said buyers know what they want and they don't balk at prices."
"A few blocks away, The Plaza is expected to have models ready to show next month, Breeze said. So far, 14 of the building's 42 units are under contract. Prices average around $650,000 to $700,000 for units in the all-residential building, but the most expensive unit so far - a top-floor penthouse with views of the river, The Shops at The Old Mill District and the Cascades, went under contract for $1.999 million at Christmas."
Maybe the difference between MY HALF TRUTHS & THESE, is that mine was acknowledged as such & PULLED IMMEDIATELY & CORRECTIONS WERE MORE VOCIFEROUS THAN THE ANNOUNCEMENT.
Breezes & DuBois' lies live on.
That's why I like BLOG RULE: When someone posts BS it's blown to pieces in minutes, while BALD FACED LIES CIRCULATED TO THOUSANDS OF BENDITES BY THE BULLETIN SURVIVE TO THIS DAY UNCORRECTED.
I know... you want to believe that every single mistake here is reason to discredit ALL POSTS & FACTUAL INFO... go ahead & think that. Don't make it so...
If Bend is SO bad (and Oregon) why do you stay? Why not, oh I don't know ... move?
Just for the record, I've said repeatedly & EVEN IN THIS POST, that I think Bend is great.
$350K Medians? Nahhh, ain't THAT great. It's more $215K great. And that's in 7-8 years.
Maybe you're right, maybe buster is simply afflicted with coprolalia.
*
Let's take this statement at face-value. We here in Bend are in a world of fucking-shit ( Full Metal Jacket ).
Is it difficult to believe that when in shit up to the fucking nose, that one would not reduce all human behavior to defecation?
I generally only quote H.L. Mencken, but tonight after one serious fucking pub-crawl. I'll quote the fucking Maestro, and that be Mark Twain, aka Samuel Clemmons, "Sexual intercourse is lifes most over-rated pleasure, defecation is lifes must under-rated pleasure", source - "Letters from earth",
p.s. if you haven't read "letter from earth", then you deserved to get fucked in the ass by the city of Bend.
I can see your point, but why would this group, make an old geezer afflicted, or I should say, dilapidated with Corprolaia into their mascot??
(*v*)
Every village needs an idiot, and buster is ours.
If you're trying to sell you simply MUST get out now while the getting is half-good.
Dunno. "Half good" may have past us by 4-5 months ago. "Shit can disaster" is what we got today. We've got to go back about a decade to get the unit sales rates we got today. And that is NOT per capita. I'm not sure Bend RE has EVER been this depressed in modern history.
And it's just going to get worse...
$350K Medians? Nahhh, ain't THAT great. It's more $215K great. And that's in 7-8 years. - homee
*
Homer,
Excuuuuuuuse me, but we're going to see medians of $215k in 1-2 years, and you know it.
Bend is low-fat hamburger trying to convince you that it's prime rib.
If you buy, you deserve the disappointment coming your way.
Every village needs an idiot, and buster is ours.
*
I have long advocated that philosophy. Bend, Oregon is the hair-lip republican capital of Oregon, our sister city is Sand Point, Idaho.
Where else in the Pacific North West besides Sand-Pt do you find Nazi-Days? Bend Oregon, why pray tell?
Because in Bend, every hair-lip is a king if he's white, and has a double digit IQ, yes Bend is Wobegon-Pond. Where ever MILF is beautiful, and every child on meth is a king.
If you buy, you deserve the disappointment coming your way.
*
Spoken like a true renter who hopes prices drop so he can buy a house.
Spoken like a true renter who hopes prices drop so he can buy a house.
Now this is a real half truth. I do rent. PROUDLY! But I will almost certainly NEVER buy a home in Bend.
I refuse to lose money on a house & I will almost certainly move or die before this is possible in Bend.
Bend RE is going into The Big Q.
QUAGMIRE
Bend is low-fat hamburger trying to convince you that it's prime rib.
*
Over $1 Million dollars a year spent by City of Bend, on PR & Marketing almost 100% to VCB/DVA promoting the single concept that "Bend is the #1 resort in the USA".
It's fairly obvious to those of us who have spent our entire working lives in PR & Marketing that the essence of the expenditure is that we're marketing to the worlds collective MORONS.
The future of Bend is to magnetically attract the worlds dimwits.
Yes, the fish that bite the Bend PR&Marketing have never even tasted Prime-Rib, and they tell ALL their hair-lip relatives how good it tastes. When in fact they're eating micky-d's Australian grown hormone beef, from a boneless, skinless, beef ranch.
The Wobegon analogy is quite fitting for todays theme, because in fact while the populace of Bend, truly thinks they are Wobegon, they are in fact the imbeciles of the world with money. The sad thing is now that HELOC is gone, Bend is a world of debt.
Homee,
I just want to say one thing before I pass out, as it is well past 7pm.
My point is you one a sunday long blog is just fine, I don't think you need to make this shit more frequent, as to quote 'duncan' the blogger-fodder, generated by the BULL just isn't dense enough for more than once a week, and besides, its clear that you a busy man, other than your 1-2 hours you reserve to waste on sunday AM.
Please don't burn yourself out, just keep up the good work, that your doing.
Spoken like a true renter who hopes prices drop so he can buy a house.
*
The problem with this analysis is that over 50% of Bend is speculation, and there will always be MORE rentals than renters, and thus the price to rent will always be low.
One the price for an average inner westside home hits less than the mean median income, which according to wiki is $40k, e.g. $160k, then that is affordable.
Forever in Bend a renter has been able to rent any home for $750/mo, and any apartment for $500/mo, in Bend, the more things change the more they remain the same.
Owning Real Estate in Bend is largely about a forced savings program. For those without discipline to stay out of the piggy-bank. Those with discipline need never purchase Bend RE, sadly most humans have NO discipline, and thus BUYING a home, near the low is a good bet.
That said "TIMMY", note that once the low is near, the ability to finance will be non-existent, thus if you want to buy, low-ball now while you can still get money. In 1-2 years NOBODY is going to be loaning anybody on BEND RE.
Now this is a real half truth. I do rent. PROUDLY! But I will almost certainly NEVER buy a home in Bend.
*
Dude yer wettest dream is that the median will drop to $215K so you can buy and then it will go back up again so you can say yer a FUCKING REAL ESTATE GURU.
Re: Dude yer wettest dream is that the median will drop to $215K so you can buy and then it will go back up again so you can say yer a FUCKING REAL ESTATE GURU.
Nah, I have zero interest in being a "FUCKING REAL ESTATE GURU". Sorry.
If it drops so I can buy equivalace at the price I rent, on a 15 yr. mortgage, and the place is decent, I will.
Otherwise, I'll continue to rent, while investing the extra. In stupid little alternative energy stocks like CPST.
I have no pride, only common sense.
Dude yer wettest dream is that the median will drop to $215K so you can buy and then it will go back up again so you can say yer a FUCKING REAL ESTATE GURU.
*
No, at $215k, you'll still be able to obtain a MTG, at $120k, nobody will give you MTG.
The 'GURU' myth, is like a young girl assuming your a HUNK, because your a male, not going to happen, in a 1-2 years in Bend, simply owning a home will cause pity.
The myth here that anybody BUYS RE because of what people think is just that a fucking MYTH.
Like Homee has said a BILLION times here BUYING RE in Bend is a losing investment, but like I say, given MOST peoples lack of discipline at best its a forced savings program.
Given that if in 1-2 years you buy a median home at $215k, and in 2-4 it goes south to $120k, and in 20 years it goes back up to $240k, nobody will care.
No more than anybody cares that I might have been a fucking genius because I bought a homes in Bend when they were $15k back in the early 1970's. Nobody cares, nobody ever cares. Nobody ever did are, this whole concept that you should care what over people think is a form of insanity, just my humble opinion.
The whole premise here to me smells like a fucking 'desperate realtor syndrome'. I repeat nobody cares.
I think most of our 'renters' in this forum, are NOT in the long haul for Bend, given they just arrived in the last five years, and we all know, in the next five years Bend is NOT going to be a cool place to be.
What is a fucking 'real estate guru', is it someone in debt today on HELOC's? Is it a Realtor?
RE in Bend is-was just a classic bubble like all classic Bubbles. Had you bought paper during any past classic bubbles and used that today in bar to pickup a chick it would only solicit pity, and so will future mention of having bought RE at anytime in Bend.
Your doing it for yourself.
Nobody else cares.
No more than anybody cares that I might have been a fucking genius because I bought a homes in Bend when they were $15k back in the early 1970's.
*
Guess what, nobody cares so why are you telling us yer a genius?
I'll continue to rent, while investing the extra. In stupid little alternative energy stocks like CPST
*
Bruce, so tell us what is significant about this penny-stock?
Seriously, all this negativity, it would be good to discuss a positive investment.
Why do you think this company will be good in the long haul? Where is it going?
Please share you insight?
Guess what, nobody cares so why are you telling us yer a genius?
*
Nobody cares, so there is no point. Because buying RE doesn't have anything to do with being a fucking genius. But given we're on that subject I'll write about it.
A genius is anybody with an IQ over 148 which is about one in a 100 people, its a dime a dozen, and doesn't have a fucking thing to do with making money.
The secret of making money, is showing up, and being at the right place at the right time. When I was a kid I was involved in MENSA for years, I think I had a tested IQ of 180.
To me a 'genius' is a dime-a-dozen. Sort of like saying someone has an asshole, so fucking what?
I'm sure lots of the folks in this forum are geniuses so fucking what. It doesn't have a fucking thing to do with RE.
In Bend during 2004 all you had to do is be breathing and the banks would have given you $10M to build a condo-complex.
I think this argument that folks are smart/dumb because of their actions is crazy, its all human-see, human-do, it has NOTHING to do with intelligence.
I have no pride, only common sense. - bruce
*
Albert Einstein once said that "Common sense is the accumulated prejudices before the age of 18".
Are you telling us your a racist?
When I was a kid I was involved in MENSA for years, I think I had a tested IQ of 180.
*
So its true buster really is a genius, or maybe an idiot-savant.
Re: Why do you think this company will be good in the long haul? Where is it going?
Good IP on its air bearings, which result in almost zero maintenance. An interesting niche, in distibruted energy production (as noted in the latest news re: Mayor Bloomberg announcing a standard for installing them in New York City, see http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20071204006266&newsLang=en)
I just basically like their tech angle. Mini-turbines that can run on everything from biodiesel to fumes from water treatment plants and pig farms. With very low maintenance and high tech management built-in.
Financial fundamentals are not too out of line, $175M or so in capitalization. A new CEO, with lots of energy industry experience, that has been watching the bottom line. Etc.
distibuted==distributed
I am curious about the current update to our water treatment system and the possibility of using a Capstone turbine running off the methane from the digester to produce electricity.
Re:
So its true buster really is a genius, or maybe an idiot-savant.
I'm sure most of us here are ;)
I am curious about the current update to our water treatment system and the possibility of using a Capstone turbine running off the methane from the digester to produce electricity.
*
I can see that the city of NY just signed on to such a deal, but NOTE back in DOT-COM, this was a $100 stock, and now a $1 stock, I'm rather surprised you would honestly call putting real money into these folks a 'common sense' proposition?
So its true buster really is a genius, or maybe an idiot-savant.
I'm sure most of us here are ;)
*
That's my point, I'm sure all here are technical 'geni-asses', but so fucking what?
I want to make the exception of BendBB I'm sure he was dropped on his head at birth, and pulled out ass first from the birth canal, and had depleted oxygen. Everyone else here, I'm sure as hell is a certified 'geni-ass', but so fucking what.
Anybody in Bend in 2004 could have bought four houses for nutting down anywhere in the city, so fucking what?
Capstone turbine running off the methane from the digester to produce electricity.
*
It appears this was a 80 dollar IPO back in y2k then up to $100, then went to a dollar in 2001, and has been there ever since until this NY deal.
Perhaps we can get Homer's opinion, or BEM's, but isn't most typical for these one time high-flyers to be terminal penny stocks?
I would love this group to discuss some rational 'investments' for folks to survive the coming Bend RE collapse. I have long felt this should be part of the constructive debate, e.g. Survival.
We should really have a 'contrarian' investment club, and test to see if we really know what the fuck is going on, I mean calling this Bend RE implosion was like obvious to a retard ( no offense to Bendbb, I'm sure he still think Bend RE is going up ).
RE: bubble stock CPST
Yeah, $100 a share was stupid. $1.35 not so much. They do have a quality product, with big partners. And the latest energy bill will help them.
Survival? A cheap greenhouse is probably the first step.
Bruce,
Have you been following this? Announced at Perdue in March of 07, and they patented it as AlGalCo. Looks to be going commercial.
Google "Algalco" to find original source physics. The following is just copy-cats, but shows that this is starting to move, sort of like the old 'back to the future' gig of just stopping at the service-station for a cup of water.
After 'cold-fusion' many of us are skeptical, but then again, this is ALL 40 year old stuff,
*
HPI Announces Breakthrough in Its Advanced Hydrogen Fuel Technology
PR Newswire
December 03, 2007: 08:00 AM EST
SEATTLE, Dec. 3 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Hydrogen Power, Inc. ("HPI", "the company") , an engineering development stage hydrogen generation company, today announced its research chemists have developed a new mixture of its proprietary AlumiFuel(TM) powder which significantly enhances performance in its target energy applications.
The modified AlumiFuel(TM) mix uses a higher percentage of aluminum and a lower percentage of the proprietary reactant additive, which accelerates the aluminum-water reaction. This modification also enables a simplified AlumiFuel(TM) manufacturing process. The net result is a 60% increase in hydrogen generation yields and a 45% reduction in fuel production costs.
Cartridges filled with AlumiFuel(TM) powder are dropped into a reactor and when water is added, high purity hydrogen is generated as a result of the chemical reaction. The hydrogen can be fed into fuel cells, turbine-based power conversion modules, or directly into inflatable devices, such as weather balloons. As the company moves into the hardware engineering development stage with selected partners, the AlumiFuel(TM) upgrade makes HPI's technology even more competitive for certain portable and stationary power applications. Hydrogen based-systems provide 4-5 times the energy density and runtime of lithium-ion batteries.
Survival? A cheap greenhouse is probably the first step.
*
I'm talking 'survival' as to 'live', not as 'survivalist', are you still trying to get that 30-06 to hunt chip-munk?
It's fairly clear the next ten year that RE is out, and that money-market is too boring, its just fun to invest and pay attention to change.
When I say 'survival' I'll try to be more clear.
Bend RE is going to collapse, the dollar is going to collapse.
Thus we need to make wise investments in order to survive, I don't think a green-house will accomplish this.
Many of my neighbors have green houses, and the Bend sun beats them to shit. Anybody that has tried to grow anything in Bend, has been disappointed, given that summer starts in July, and ends in September.
If you want to grow shit, move to the valley. Bend is the fucking desert.
Re: AlGalo hydrogen tech
Yes, but I'm more interested in distributed energy. Algae to oil is rather interesting, too.
Re: "survival"
You are predicating your survival on "money" being relevant. I was answering more fundamentally.
Bend RE is going to collapse, the dollar is going to collapse.
*
The bridges are going to collapse. The sky is going to fall.
Invest in cowrie shells now. When I was a kid I was involved in MENSA for years, so I know what I'm talking about.
Actually, the dollar has already collapsed, and Bend RE is well on the way. So what.
Invest in yourself. I would say something to do with foreign tourism, as the dollar is so cheap these days, but everyone is scared of our Customs now... Exporting something, but what?
One thing is green energy, the kind of stuff that we have to construct over here. Solar, wind, physical stuff.
Farther out but fascinating is algae to oil, and eating CO2 to grow it. Algae has tremendous growth rates under the right conditions, and some species have up to 70% lipids, which can be turned into biodiesel. Algae is a plant and so eats CO2, enabling potential CO2 reduction credits.
The seminal paper is here: http://www.unh.edu/p2/biodiesel/article_alge.html
Other links:
http://www.oilgae.com/
http://en.phyco.org/wiki/Main_Page
http://peswiki.com/index.php/Directory:Biodiesel_from_Algae_Oil
http://tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/oil_from_algae/
Main companies right now:
http://en.phyco.org/wiki/Companies_%26_Organizations
Although this list seems a little old...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119724657737318810.html?mod=fpa_whatsnews
Good graph/table today on MTG meltdown, as I have said for almost a year over $2Trillion, now they're saying perhaps $6T loss. The graph compares our current MTG collapse to dot-com collape.
U.S. Mortgage Crisis
Rivals S&L Meltdown
Toll of Economic Shocks
May Linger for Years;
A Global Credit Crunch
By GREG IP , MARK WHITEHOUSE and AARON LUCCHETTI
December 10, 2007; Page A1
The home has long been the bedrock asset of most American families. Now, its value has become the biggest question mark hanging over the global economy and financial system.
Over the past decade, Wall Street built a market for more than $2 trillion in securities sold globally and backed by loans to U.S. homeowners on two long-accepted beliefs and one newer one. The prevailing logic: The value of the American home would never fall nationwide, and people would almost always make their mortgage payments. The more recent twist: Packaging mortgage loans and turning them into securities would make the global economy more resilient if anything went wrong.
[Chartbook]
In a matter of months, though, much of the promise of the new financial architecture -- together with its underlying assumptions -- has proven to be a mirage. As house prices fall and homeowners default on mortgages at troubling rates, the pain has spread far and wide. An examination of the resulting crisis shows that it is comparable to some of the biggest financial disasters of the past half-century.
So far, the potential losses look manageable compared with the savings-and-loan crisis of the 1980s and the tech-stock crash of 2000-02. But the housing debacle could yet take years to work out, thanks to the sheer complexity of it. Until the mess is cleaned up, investors will remain jittery and banks will likely hold back on all kinds of lending -- a credit crunch that is already damping global growth and could tip the U.S. economy into recession.
the dollar has already collapsed,
[20 yr slide to date and more to com ]
and Bend RE is well on the way. So what.
[ 10yr slide, and who the fuck knows if it will ever come back, to anything other a redmond the size of san-jose ]
Invest in yourself.
[ too old for that shit, started dozen of companys 20, 30 years ago, don't do that anymore, don't want to fuck with 'employees' ]
I would say something to do with foreign tourism, as the dollar is so cheap these days, but everyone is scared of our Customs now...
[ ya, fingerprints, cavity-checks, visiting the USA is only for Nazis ]
Exporting something, but what?
[ PORN, The so-cal valley will continue to be a leader. ]
A possible way to bring in foreign currency?
Older white women join Kenya's sex tourists
Hard figures are difficult to come by, but local people on the coast estimate that as many as one in five single women visiting from rich countries are in search of sex.
Allie and Bethan -- who both declined to give their full names -- said they planned to spend a whole month touring Kenya's palm-fringed beaches. They would do well to avoid the country's tourism officials.
"It's not evil," said Jake Grieves-Cook, chairman of the Kenya Tourist Board, when asked about the practice of older rich women traveling for sex with young Kenyan men.
We can put our MILF population to work! Rent out McMansions by the hour to Arab Shieks. Fuck these Money Center bailouts!
In Bend we got MILF's & empty homes, the Middle East has got rich, horny fuckin Arabs.
Problem Solved!
Perhaps we can get Homer's opinion, or BEM's, but isn't most typical for these one time high-flyers to be terminal penny stocks?
Mostly that's what happens, there are exceptions: RIMM went to $20 in 2000, then to $1.50 in 2002 & looked dead. Recently hit $137.
The bridges are going to collapse.
[ I97 @biggs, ... sellwoood in pdx, ... ]
The sky is going to fall.
[ The physics of this has already been discussed, see earlier responses. In general the 'sky' is in equilibrium, by inward forces of gravitation, and outward forces of gas expansion. In the event that gravitational attraction greatly increased, e.g. earth become a black-hole. Then perhaps the sky could fall. I don't think this is going to happen. The physics requires a Chandasekar Mass of multiples of our own Sun.]
Invest in cowrie shells now.
[ knick-knacks are not edible. I personally don't collect any kinds of knick-knacks, to each his own. I understand that Duncan has some shelf space for cowrie-shells. See Duncan. ]
When I was a kid I was involved in MENSA for years, so I know what I'm talking about.
[ Mensan's, are some of the strangest, weirdest, ugliest people I have ever been around. This is the whole point I was trying to make about the argument is a dodo that buys "Bend RE, and you call him a genius". Most real geniuses are smelly, un-groomed, non-conformist wackos.
]
Study history the men with the greatest fortunes in human history, had no education, and mediocre IQ's. Being smart, intelligent, ... will not even get you a cup of coffee. The secret of wealth is being at the right place, at the right time, and showing up.
People who make money in RE are like Breeze, Hollern, Sebastian, the kind of people voted 'most popular' in high school. Then there is old farts like bendbust who make money in RE because they just showed up for 40 years, and held on in good and bad times.
What I'm trying to say, is that if you bought RE in the last four years in Bend, your most likely a MORON. If you made money in RE in Bend in the last ten years, you would have had to liquidate everything already, and you probably did it out of necessity, and NOT intelligence.
Even Buffett says that NOBODY can call tops and bottoms until they have passed.
so you can say yer a FUCKING REAL ESTATE GURU...
Just shows that you don't understand the fundamental premise of BLOGGING ANONYMOUSLY.
I will be able to claim nothing. Even if I hopped out of the closet, I would not receive a single acknowledgment of "being right". I would more likely be blamed as "The Cause".
Being negative & DEAD RIGHT is always a thankless bitch. In Bend.... it'd start a witch hunt.
I just want to say one thing before I pass out, as it is well past 7pm.
My point is you one a sunday long blog is just fine, I don't think you need to make this shit more frequent, as to quote 'duncan' the blogger-fodder, generated by the BULL just isn't dense enough for more than once a week, and besides, its clear that you a busy man, other than your 1-2 hours you reserve to waste on sunday AM.
Please don't burn yourself out, just keep up the good work, that your doing.
I LOVE YOU, MAN!
PORN, The so-cal valley will continue to be a leader.
I always wondered where they shot porno.
Mostly that's what happens, there are exceptions: RIMM went to $20 in 2000, then to $1.50 in 2002 & looked dead. Recently hit $137.
*
Yes, but RIMM has a HOT consumer market that creates dreams, called the 'blackberry', which is pervasive.
Also going to 10 to 20, and down to 2, then having a 'hit' product, and going to $120. Ok, so its happened once, but RIM in my mind did't go that high, before it busted.
In my own experience, back in the day, once a stock plummeted the employees got very-very cynical and unhappy, and generally if the company continued to stay around, it was because the CEO had nothing better to do, and the thing just eventually died.
I'm not sure we can compare RIM to bruces friction-less generator. It's not a consumer item, and a few city's might by it.
My fear in general is that once a stock fly's to 100 early, from nothing, and then goes back to nothing, the good people ALWAYS leave, and the imbeciles stick around. Eventually somebody gets tired of feeding them and the OP implodes. I think that RIM was always well capitalized, and the blackberry is a hell of a product, which proves they NEVER lost the ability to innovate. There was that lawsuit that for years created doubt between RIM&PALM, thats now settled, I think that is what allowed RIM to explode.
Getting back to Bruces 'capstone turbine' what does homer & bem thing?
I was around the algae people a lot back in the 80's I saw tons of stuff of how everyone was going to grow algae in huts to feed africa, and make s
Re: I always wondered where they shot porno
http://www.avn.com
The trade show's a riot.
We can put our MILF population to work! Rent out McMansions by the hour to Arab Shieks.
*
Homer, I think you missed the point, the MILF's are PAYING the kenyan studs to service them.
There is NO fucking way an Arab Sheik is going to PAY for Bend MILF PUSSY.
You could get kenyans over here, for $1/day to service MILFS, or we could re institute slavery, and kidnap young Kenyan men by the boatload, and put them in the mcMansions, and have OUR BEND REHO MILFS be 'madams'.
The Kenyans are proud people, and Kenya is a poor country. Once the Kenyans got to Bend, their price would quickly go from $1/day to $100/day, ...
Lastly, our Bend Cougars are generally older white women that have taken their 'contractor' hubby to the cleaners. The Cougars are on the prowl, most notably the bar next to Marz, they're looking for another guy with money. Given that RE is dead, all these cougars will eventually starve. Most of them are the people who start all these bead and salons in Bend, 99% of the time they're out of biz the first year.
I like the idea of foreign capital to Bend. Right now city money is spent on marketing Bend as the best resort in the west to Chinese. Now Chinese old-rich men, would be quite happy with MILF pussy, they would prefer younger stuff, but initially any white-pussy would do.
I have said here before, that in order to make this place 'sticky' for older rich Chinese businessmen, you MUST have PUSSY & GAMBLING. They really don't care about the amenitys that VCB/DVA promotes, and they certainly don't care what Outside Magazine has to say.
Given that gambling and pussy-biz is exploding in Macau, and south-asia in general, why the fuck would they come to Bend?
Arab sheiks have Dubai, where all the worlds beautiful women come to them.
There are in any class of people, extremist perverts, you could probably do a highly-specialize 'escort' biz in Dubai that only does REHO-MILFS, there's probably some Arab out there with bucks that would be attracted to this perversion.
I'll get real now, the way its going to play out is that Bend we'll get gambling, the prostitution will be done by Bend/La-Pines children ( over 18+ of course, but still children to me ), this is because like the west, most older men with money prefer young boy's and young girls.
In Bend we got MILF's & empty homes, the Middle East has got rich, horny fuckin Arabs.
*
You obviously haven't traveled there. You can have any kind of pussy you want, I remember years ago I was in Constantinople ( Istanbul ), and they had a city in a city of Prostitution, that rivaled anything I have seen in Amsterdam.
No alcohol of course, but they had women of every color, and nationality of the world, and it was all $1/trick, and the average woman there did $200/day, and was able to come and go at will, and there were always hoards of taxi's awaiting to bring them in and out.
There are places like this all over the arab/persian world.
This was the early 80's, I had a buddy I was traveling with during one instance, and I don't pay for pussy, I just walk around drink tea and enjoy the scenery, like I say, it rivals Amsterdam. My friend has a few tricks after walking around and having 100's of beautiful women beg him to screw them. Anyways he paid his dollar, in a street room behind curtain, and was back out in two minutes, completely satisfied. The next AM he couldn't walk, and most of the skin on his cock has blistered, he mentioned that her pussy had felt like sand-paper. In those days nobody used condoms, but the women douched frequently with strong chemicals.
My point here is there's it lots of diverse cheap pussy already in the Arab/Persian world.
I have also extensively traveled in Africa, and yes in Kenya its a nickel and virtually impossible to rent a hotel room by anything but an hourly increment.
**
The above is not meant to be offensive, but given that it seems Bend destiny to become the #1 resort for Chinese & Arabs tycoons, I think it is essential that we describe exactly the standard of service that we must provide.
Re: I'm not sure we can compare RIM to bruces friction-less generator. It's not a consumer item, and a few city's might by it.
My fear in general is that once a stock fly's to 100 early, from nothing, and then goes back to nothing, the good people ALWAYS leave, and the imbeciles stick around. Eventually somebody gets tired of feeding them and the OP implodes. I think that RIM was always well capitalized, and the blackberry is a hell of a product, which proves they NEVER lost the ability to innovate. There was that lawsuit that for years created doubt between RIM&PALM, thats now settled, I think that is what allowed RIM to explode.
I don't think any stock explodes for fundamental reasons, more of a gradual climb as they grow. They explode occasionally for the same emotional/unrational reasons that Bend RE exploded.
CPST has great core technology that is becoming more useful with time. They build units in the small range (from as small as bus engines up to the office building sizes the Bloomberg is talking about), and their latest units actually put out cleaner exhaust than the air they take in, removing trace amounts of unburned hydrocarbons. They burn everything from diesel to landfill/manure pit methane flares. The exhaust is hooked up to heat exchangers to extract the heat energy for use in driving air and water heaters and air pumps for cooling and heating.
They are incrdibly efficient and low maintenance. From this EPA report:
"Capstone Turbine's new CR65 renewable energy microturbine systems is a biogas-fueled 65-kilowatt power/heat generator that can be easily arrayed without switchgear or other external hardware to serve power loads ranging from a few kilowatts to more than a megawatt. A natural gas fueled C65 model is also available. The Capstone MicroTurbine engine has just one moving part: no pumps, gearbox, radiator, or other mechanical subsystems. The system uses no oil, lubricants, coolants, other hazmats or even water. These generators achieve extremely low emissions without any exhaust treatment devices or chemicals. See the EPA Environmental Technology Verification (ETV) test report for emissions and performance information on previous models. An integrated copper heat exchanger (or stainless steel for biogas applications) is an available option. Direct2Grid interconnection is built in and pre-certified to the New York and California statewide distributed generation grid interconnection regulations. It is also UL-Listed to UL2200, UL1741, and others. Government sales are available via Capstone's GSA Schedule #GS-07F-9281S.
...
In conventionally fueled combined heat and power applications, utility power plants and boilers consume 50% more fuel to create the same power and heat outputs of the Capstone C65-ICHP system. Refer to the EPA ETV reports for emissions test verification vs. utility power plant emissions reported by the EPA Power Profiler. Also uses no lubricants, coolants or other hazmats, and emits no ammonia, mercury, carcinogenic soot or other toxics common to utility power plants. Biogas fueled applications of the CR65-ICHP model have similar emissions performance advantages and use waste flare gases, mitigating the use of fossil fuels, to create renewable energy. The CR65 engine also destroys methane and non-methane organic compounds far more effectively and with far lower pollutant emissions than flaring.
Performance:
Achieves 80% total fuel efficiency to end-user loads in combined power and water-heating efficiency (64% in biogas applications due to stainless steel heat exchanger). Some installations using custom heat exchangers or direct exhaust utilization for drying/heating are more than 90% fuel-efficient. See above regarding emissions performance."
They have several thousand units in the field,as seen here.
CPST has gone through the process of management renewal in the last year or so, bringing in experience people from the energy field. Their sales operation went from ridiculous (you had to sign an NDA to simply get a quote) to very organized, and they have been very proactive at getting government certifications and bundling the turbines with other components to create simple-to-install complete systems, like in UTC's PureComfort systems.
They look like they might actually turn a profit a few quarters out. I'm kicking myself for not picking some more up this summer when it got down in the .80's. That might have been the low.
CPST has gone through the process of management renewal in the last year or so, bringing in experience people from the energy field.
*
Ok, you have done a ton of homework, what is the PDG? What kind of growth do you expect? How come this isn't already priced in the stock?
Re: CPST
See the pros take here: http://www.247wallst.com/2007/12/lazard-more-bul.html
What do you mean by PDG?
What do you mean by PDG?
PEG
Re: CPST
See the pros take here: http://www.247wallst.com/2007/12/lazard-more-bul.html
*
Bruce,
I asked what you thought, not what every penny stock analyst said last wed-fri after the bloomberg NYC buy of a couple generators.
Not applicable as they are just turning the corner towards actual profits.
I like the pattern of insider purchases, too, right up to a few days ago: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=CPST
Capstone Turbine (CPST - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) slumped 6.4% after the microturbine-technology developer said fiscal first-quarter revenue sank 14.5% year over year to $5.6 million. Despite also narrowing its per-share loss by 2 cents to 7 cents a share, the Chatsworth, Calif., company was off 7 cents to $1.03
*
So they may have a sexy product, but their biz is like Bend, sales off 14% year to date. They get a little order from NYC and issue a ton of press releases, and their stock goes down. Then two days later Lazard calls it a buy!
This sounds like typical penny-stock BULL.
Why in the hell would a company selling a hot technology see sales going south?
Just like the Tetherow Press release of this week "Homes Still Selling in Bend", trouble is Tetherow never sold a home. Capstone hasn't sold a generator either, things aren't 'SOLD' until the money is in the bank.
Sorry Bruce, but I smell a rat.
Ya, I meant 'PEG', I don't see how I typed PDG, someday I need to hire an editor.
All my years in high-tech is that all biz is a bell curve, camel-backs are very rare, where in the hell is the competition? Given that this shit has been on the market forever, ... All these years and $5M in sales for the quarter? Get a n RFQ from NYC an send out Press-Releases? This puppy will be down to your 80 cents very soon, just wait and buy a ton.
Declining sales in this 'GREEN MARKET"??
This looks like pump&dump to me.
I was referring to Lazard, not a penny stock op:
"Shares of Capstone Turbine Corp. (NASDAQ:CPST) are up in early trading after the open, although not as much as one might suspect, on a key analyst call. Sanjay Shrestha, Managing Director and Senior Analyst, Alternative Energy & Industrials at Lazard Capital Markets, has initiated coverage of CPST with a Buy rating and a $2.50 target. Normally we might not even cover a stock with a $1.28 price, but this analyst has been quite insightful in alternative energy stocks and the price target of $2.50 is roughly a call for the stock to double."
Personally, if they can get their per unit margins to reasonable levels, I think that's pretty conservative. They are laying a lot of good groundwork now that will really start paying off in 3-5 years.
The new CEO, Darren Jamison, was actually COO for a customer of Capstone, Northern Power Systems, and before that worked in the distributed energy industry for ten years with Steward & Stevenson. He brought another longtime S&S guy as EVP-Sales. They seem to be making a real impact.
I personally think they could very well be acquired for $4-5/share a few years down the road.
Shrestha believes this is a turnaround story and represents an attractive way to invest in the expected growth of the distributed generation (DG) market. Shrestha adds, "We expect significant growth in distributed generation driven by increasing electric demand, coupled with an aging transmission and distribution network and an increasing need for power quality and reliability..... The company appears to be gaining sales traction in a number of key markets and has successfully rebuilt its OEM and distributor network, which we believe will help propel further sales."
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=CPST
*
I don't want to pick on you, your my bitch. But Honestly, you say that people has bought this shit, nobody has bought it since early 2006 and them dimwits paid over $3.00, this year its all been candy-options.
I still smell pump&dump, this PR, they YOY drop in sales, to me this is a big deal for a growth company. These guys are desperate, they have been sitting on this bitch for five years, they need to get on with their lives, all dodo's know the stock-market will implode next year, these guys should have sold this technology years ago to a major and made some real fucking money,
If the technology is so fucking unique how come no buyer, do they have patents? How come the Chinese aint' making this shit if its the holy-grail, hell they had the iPhone cloned before the iPhone hit the street.
Again, NOT picking on you, but I smell a rat, you brought this up.
I personally think they could very well be acquired for $4-5/share a few years down the road.
*
I'll do some more research, I would really like BEM & HOMERS opinion. I have to get off my ass now.
You say someone might buy them out in a few years, why not now when its cheap????
I'll repeat, money is going to get tight from now on, for a LONG fucking time, if these cunts didn't sell in the gravy years, how in the HELL are they going to sell tomorrow, or next year????
They don't have much direct competition. It's a rather unique product. The closest one to us was installed in the new OHSU LEED Platinum building in Portland, featured here: http://www.edcmag.com/CDA/Articles/Feature_Article/BNP_GUID_9-5-2006_A_10000000000000166319
They've sold around 3700 to date. The sales curve is 18-36 months, so the last few quarters have still been the results from the prior management. The big focus is getting per unit margins up, as well as initiating new sales that will occur in a couple of years. The UTC PureComfort system is huge, too, with all the necessary components on one skid ready to install. Jamison comes from a company that integrated Capstone systems and has come miles in doing it more in-house and with UTC.
They've got hundreds of them running in SoCal, too. CARB loves them.
Yeah, lots of good IP. Good outside board members, too.
Gotta go now.
My friend is a Realtor... He told me somewhat jubilantly that he just closed a 2.35 million dollar house and an 850K. But hey, all Realtors are doing bad, aren't they?
Life is good...
>>My friend is a Realtor... He told me somewhat jubilantly that he just closed a 2.35 million dollar house and an 850K. But hey, all Realtors are doing bad, aren't they?
George Burns lived to be 100, but that doesn't mean all celebrities can expect to live long lives.
Big article on how Tetherow is a bright spot in Real Estate sales.
So when can expect some hard-hitting investigative journalism on what went wrong at the Plaza or with the modern houses at Newport Market, or at any of the new empty office buildings?
Re: I'll repeat, money is going to get tight from now on, for a LONG fucking time, if these cunts didn't sell in the gravy years, how in the HELL are they going to sell tomorrow, or next year????
Bad management. Like I said, two years ago you had to sign and NDA just to get a price quote. Ridiculous. I've been following them for well over two years now.
But if it is a pump and dump, a 100% gain in a year is fine with me.
Timmy,
The truth is out there. Just won't see it on the pump fest rag over at the bullsh**Tin, not good for ad revenues if they post the truth.
Nothing about Woodhill, or Rennaissance selling all their lots, etc etc etc.
Won't be and when there is full out stories like that You will have your buy indicator.
Watch "The Trading Desk" on COTV, those guys tell it like it is. Monday 5:30 or Wed @ 9pm.
Big article on how Tetherow is a bright spot in Real Estate sales.
*
Hello, I have printed this press release a dozen times here in the past few days, and then its gets printed in the BULL and its news??
They say a dozen lots sold at $600k, and they're calling these lots 'homes', but NOTE there are NO HOMES @ Tetherow. ALL this came form the press release issued by Tetherow itself, there is NO NEWS here, as always when the BULL gets a press-release they treat it like news.
There are NO journalists at the BULL, only a few monkeys that reprint press-release that they get by email.
The following Tetherow "press release" is ALL over, note the title "Home Sales", NOT A FUCKING HOME has sold at Tetherow, what has SOLD is a few lots, but have they been 'recorded"? This is what counts.
Home Sales News is Not All Bad; Oregon Development Closes on $12 Million in Homesite Sales in One Month
Tetherow's Success Defies Real Estate Trends
BEND, Ore.--(Business Wire)--If you think all of the news coming out of the housing industry is
doom and gloom, think again. A new development near Bend, Ore., closed
on 19 homesites in one month for a value close to $12 million or about
$631,000 per lot.
Internationally famous golf course architect David McLay Kidd and
his wife Jill recently closed on the first homesite at Tetherow, a new
700-acre golf resort community near Bend in central Oregon. They were
joined by 18 more buyers in the last month. The 19 lots have a
>>Watch "The Trading Desk" on COTV, those guys tell it like it is.
I've seen ads for that on CNBC. Do you know any of those guys? I'll try it out.
A whole bunch of Bends Realtor MILF's have been asked to be HO's for a major Saudi Prince.
Things are looking up for Bend.
What cracks me up is what's not said.
Saying that Tetherow is a bright spot in any otherwise slow real estate market in Central Oregon kinda begs the question, "So then what's sucking?" Doesn't it?
All we ever heard is that things are great, so how can this Tetherow press release be news at all since we've never heard any details of how bad things are otherwise.
Are you listening to me David Fisher? I'm calling you out. Do some damned reporting!
PR firm doing their job for their 250k per year for Tetherow, its standard PR fodder, nothing more. Read between the lines, its a glorified sales pitch that gets delivered via google to every mail box that does a search for Bend, OR. Beautiful really. No different than W spouting ownership nation. I mean debtor prison nation. You just got to believe Timmy, there's no place like home, there's no place like home. Home is where the heart is. In this mobile nation, who needs a 30 year note? Just rent and move again with 5 years of inventory and old folks dying to get out of their existing homes the next 20 years of boomership will be over and more homes will flood the market.
Below is the FULL press release as sent out by Tetherow Dec 7, and picked up today by BULL.
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/index.jsp?epi_menuItemID=887566059a3aedb6efaaa9e27a808a0c&ndmViewId=news_view&ndmConfigId=1009073&newsId=20071207005540&newsLang=en
Home Sales News is Not All Bad; Oregon Development Closes on $12 Million in Homesite Sales in One Month
Tetherow’s Success Defies Real Estate Trends
BEND, Ore.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--If you think all of the news coming out of the housing industry is doom and gloom, think again. A new development near Bend, Ore., closed on 19 homesites in one month for a value close to $12 million or about $631,000 per lot.
Internationally famous golf course architect David McLay Kidd and his wife Jill recently closed on the first homesite at Tetherow, a new 700-acre golf resort community near Bend in central Oregon. They were joined by 18 more buyers in the last month. The 19 lots have a combined value of close to $12 million.
More than 80 Tetherow homesites have already been reserved, with an estimated value of $42 million. Tetherow’s success vividly illustrates the continued strength of this real estate market in the midst of a sluggish national economy.
Bend was the country’s hottest market in 2006, with price gains of more than 30 percent. This year’s 7.2 percent increase in prices for residential lots is the lowest in years, attracting others like Kidd who want to own a piece of Oregon’s most popular vacation spot.
Kidd’s designs for Bandon Dunes and the Castle Course at St. Andrew earned him Golf World magazine’s “hottest architect in golf” title, and the private resort course he designed for Tetherow will open in June. In April he moved his international design company and family to Bend. When fully developed, Tetherow will include a golf academy and clubhouse, hotel, spa and wellness center, recreation center, conference center and 589 homes and townhomes.
For more information on Tetherow, visit www.tetherow.com or call Brand Director Femke van Velzen, 541-390-2259, femke@tetherow.com. For information on homesites, call Joe Kearney, director of sales, 866-234-4848 or 541-318-1234, jkearney@tetherow.com. Media calls: Olga Haley, 971-244-0661 or olga@leoketel.com.
PR firm doing their job for their 250k per year for Tetherow, its standard PR fodder, nothing more
*
Homer likes becky, but this Heidi Berkman she is Bend's Super-MILF, and she's the ONE-WOMAN PR-FIRM of Tetherow, albeit $250k/yr.
You all know that Tetherow recently fired DVA ( city VCB PR machine ), and hired a new PR bitch, last weeks PR was ONLY FOR CHINA, and basically said what a great place Bend was for rich Chinese, then last friday they do the same Press Release again, this time for domestic realtors about how Bend is exceptional.
These fuck-heads may have fired DVA, but they're using the same exact sound/press bites.
Fact is they're desperate.
I still think if some of our YOUNG 'DIAL' BUCKS here did some searching on these so called dozen lots that 'closed', note NOT RECORDED, thus there would be NO DIAL ( or would there ), thats the point,
We already know that in Tetherow-Land a muddy LOT is a HOME.
Bauhofer MUST be desperate to get cash for lots, and there are a couple dozen VERY rich guys in Bend, that would buy these lots, just to build a house on the best golf course in town, if it ever happens, the chance I think now is getting well below 50% of never happening,
Like completion of the Plaza, that the odd's are now what 20% maybe, and remember with the Plaza its either 100% or nothing,
With Tetherow it started out as HUGE, and its been cut back so much, that a few very rich guys probably realize it might be nice and quiet.
That said "Bauhofer" will bail and move, at least the plan when course is done ( for marketing ), and lots are sold, and pass cost of maintenance to the home-owners, hello Broken-Top.
The Plaza may never see more than a handful of homes built, take a bike ride up to Highlands@Broken-Top, you can could ALL the homes on one hand. One Pays? Well @Highlands what as happened is the developer has quit paying for everything, and the few homeowners cannot pay the ENTIRE security maintenance budget, so the whole place has been cut back to one kmart security person work m-f 8-4, it used to be Gorillas working 24/7,.... These BIG projects don't pencil, when there is NO cost averaging.
Who in the FUCK is going to pay for Tetherow, SELL, HYPE, MARKET TODAY, ...
Oh, and did I mention HOA's, up at Highlands @BT, they're already $1,000/mo.
These BEND resort gated community's are way more fun to watch than the Plaza.
I'm convinced we need to create a Bend Realty Dictionary for Homers site and keep it handy.
Just in the last week I have discovered two now words.
HOME - A muddy lot, doesn't have to be habital, just a parcel of land that someday will become a Bend Crap-Shack.
CLOSING ( closed ) - means that someone bought the right to buy the real estate at a later date.
A closing is like a sale in Bend.
Sale - When a house is presented to a potential buyer, all homes are recorded as a potential sale.
HOME-SITE: A site where someday, perhaps in 20-40 there may be a double-wide or something, or even a lean-to, but the point is potential this parcel may become occupied by a live human.
Its important to read the following , note that Nov 19, 2007 Tetherow FIRED DVA, and HIRED this NEW FIRM LKP, which is why your seeing ALL the NEW sleazy PR.
Tetherow Selects Leopold Ketel & Partners for Public Relations Services
By: PR Newswire
Nov. 19, 2007 10:31 AM
Digg This!
PORTLAND, Ore., Nov. 19 /PRNewswire/ -- Tetherow, a new luxury resort hotel, residential and golf development taking shape on Bend's west side, has selected Portland's Leopold Ketel & Partners to provide public relations services.
The 700-acre Tetherow development will encompass a luxury hotel/spa/restaurant, recreation center, conference center, 18-hole championship golf course with a clubhouse, and a residential area with 589 homes and town homes. Groundbreaking for the golf clubhouse was held October 19, 2007 and opening is set for June, 2008, with hotel construction starting in 2008. More than 100 homesites in the first phase of the residential development have been reserved and the second phase of homesites is now available.
Embodying a design philosophy of "Life on the edge of the forest, near the heart of the city," Tetherow is Bend's first luxury resort development, set between the desirable western end of the city and the national forest. Land on Bend's west side is prized for its views and proximity to the city's upscale amenities and Tetherow is rising on the last of that valuable acreage.
Announcing LKP's selection were Tetherow partners Don Bauhofer and John Leitz, owners of Arrowood Development, LLC, a Bend development company. Femke van Velzen, brand manager for Tetherow, said, "For our public relations representation in the Northwest, we were looking for people with a rounded background and excellent connections. Personal references were also important, and Leopold Ketel came out on top on all counts."
Olga Haley, LKP's managing director, public relations, said, "As Oregon's tourism industry grows, we are pleased to work with some of the leading resort developments on the West Coast, and Tetherow is among the finest." LKP is one of the Northwest's leading agencies, representing regional and national clients including Tillamook Cheese, Hood River Distillers, Springbrook Properties, Pendleton Woolen Mills, Oregon Public Broadcasting, ODS Health Insurance, Benchmade Knife Company, Oregon Health & Science University, Oregon Humane Society, Oregon Coast Aquarium, Castelli Cycling Apparel and Old Mill District in Bend.
For more information about LKP, call 503-295-1918 or visit http://www.leoketel.com/. For more information about Tetherow, contact Brand Manager Femke van Velzen, 541-390-2259, or visit http://www.tetherow.com/.
Leopold Ketel & Partners
Can we even support the golf courses we already have? Isn't Broken Top's problem not enough members?
Re: Internationally famous golf course architect David McLay Kidd and his wife Jill recently closed on the first homesite at Tetherow...
You guys are so depressing. Heidi and David are trying to build something for us here, in Bend. Can't we support them just a little bit more?
You guys are so depressing. Heidi and David are trying to build something for us here, in Bend. Can't we support them just a little bit more?
*
Did you see what DVA&David did for BANDON? $25M city paid private air-strip for the richest people in the world to access a golf course.
How come DVA who has their Orygun Orifice based in Bend, cannot do this kind of feces for Tetherow? I mean holy defecation. You can give Les Schwab a fucking tire flipper $12M+ in benny's, but not give fucking Tetherow it's due, so fucking sleazy is Bend, they had to shit-can DVA, and find a new PR-HO, and we know in BEND this is big shit. Because PR is the end-all, be-all, suck-all, fuck-all of BEND, BEND lives&dies - PR.
Can we even support the golf courses we already have? Isn't Broken Top's problem not enough members?
*
Ok, here I go again, two weeks Press Release from Tetherow, was targetted 100% to Chinese Tycoons ONLY, the deal is that in Bend Oregon, there is a WHITE-MILF at every tee. Ready, really, and waiting.
Gambling, no problem an hour, buy Greyhound to Kahneetahs finest pleasure palace. Prostitution, ya we got I97 cooridor all the way down to La-Pine, rumor is that old MILF herself Sally Pleasanton of Atlanta, is still down at the LA-Pine doing tricks.
Can we even support the golf courses we already have? Isn't Broken Top's problem not enough members?
*
Right now EDCO reports 24 golf course resorts in the Bend Area.
Then there are another dozen coming on line in 2008.
Why not, they cost next to nothing, and help sell worthless desert land ( home-sites ), aka LOTS to out of town suckers, brought in by the SORE aka, Aaron Switzer, MR. Event.
Whats not to love about Bend, Golf, and PR??
Does the FUCKING BULL even have a place in this village anymore?
>>Does the FUCKING BULL even have a place in this village anymore?
"Who is Number 1?"
"You are Number 6."
Re: >>Does the FUCKING BULL even have a place in this village anymore?
Gotta have one place for the food stores to put their weekly ads. Someone's got to pay for that big red brick building on the hill above Century.
Nice job headlines this morning:
Industry void hurts local wages
Inflation adjusted wages were higher in 1976 than today
and
WaMu to cut more than 3,000 jobs, close loan centers
And you have the optimists:
"Realtors revise outlook upward
Bucking conventional wisdom, a trade group for real-estate agents on Monday said the battered housing market is on the verge of stabilizing and inched up its outlook for 2007 and 2008 home sales. The revised monthly forecast from the National Association of Realtors, which followed nine straight months of downward revisions, calls for US existing home sales to fall 12.5% this year to 5.67 million--the lowest level since 2002."
I guess you could call that optimism...
Worst. Forecasters. Ever.
http://www.slate.com/id/2179605/
What's interesting in the last 2-3 days, is virtually all the bankrupt, e.g. citi UBS, wamu,HR-Block, are lining up for their $10B bailout by the middle east.
It's clear that you can't get money anymore from the USA, or from CHINA, but the Arab's are dumping their dollars in a FORM of picking up assets on the biggest banks in the world for cheap.
I really think that Dubai, may be the next big stock play when this settles, they could be the last man standing.
As a store owner, I can tell you that sales mean nothing. Profits are all that count.
*
I'm glad you commented this. I'm a 'cash-accountant' myself, bullshit walks, but deposits talk.
A sale in MY mind hasn't taken place until the FULL amount of purchase has been wired in MY account. That's what I call a 'SALE'.
FYI, yes its already documented that ALL 19 of the home-sites allegedly 'SOLD' @ Tetherow were to locals, not a single out-of-state 'buyer' to my knowledge to date.
The IRONY here, and NOTE Tetherow itself wrote the press-release, and they knew if it just said "Tetherow sells lots", that wouldn't cut, e.g. the BULL wouldn't run it as news.
Instead the title is "Tetherow Proves that Bend is resistant to National Real Estate collapse in Homes". Trouble is NO homes sold at tetherow. Doesn't matter, TITLES never mean anything in the BULL, all that ever matters is the last sentence in the copy that the BULL prints, we know that.
There is in my mind two BIG storys here, one about words, and the other about PR ( public relations ).
In the word biz a 'home sale' or 'closing' is now a wink/nod. A muddy/frozen lot next to a couple 100 yards of artificial turf is now a "HOME"
Then there is this PR ( public relations ) deal, and I have SEEN NOBODY pick it up, buts its obvious that DVA of Bend, had been FIRED in November 17, 2007, and replaced by this new firm LKP ( call 503-295-1918 or visit http://www.leoketel.com/ ). I think this could be the biggest story of the year on Tetherow. Firing your existing PR firm, and getting a NEW one is BIG biz. It means first of all that your previous PR firms campaign, completely fucking failed.
Note, it was DVA that GOT "David Kidds" course in BANDON-OR, online, thus they know what the hell they're doing when it comes to shoving golf course up the taxpayer ass. Yet, they got replaced for Tetherow. This is some BIG SHIT, and not a mention from ANYONE, ANYPLACE in the BEND BIZ community.
What is going on is that what DVA is good at, and that is getting unpopular boondoggles accepted by the public, that isn't what matters now. In 2004 you could SELL a Tetherow lot to a Mexican Landscaper making $5/hr, with a stated-income loan. Today, nothing is selling, and especially Golf Courses in Bend, Oregon.
Regarding the Tetherow deal what I think is going on, is that the 19 lots that sold were to the dozen 'really rich guys' at Broken-Top, that actually financed the Brenneke buyout.
These guys love to golf, and they want to be at the next best place.
So, the trouble is long term, if Tetherow comes on line, the 'saints', or 'goldens' of Broken-Top, will exit and DUMP thier mcMansions, and build over at Tetherow, this is ALL course way off.
You can be sure of one thing, NOT much real money has changed hands. I'm talking hunks of CASH, you can be damn sure of that.
On another related item, you all might like this, but as you know the original guy that put Broken-TOP together was Homer-Williams of PDX, the richest developer in the city. He built a bunch of condo-towers on the south-water front, several 1000 that were pre-sold now nobody wants them and TICOR is suing all the people who put their down, to keep their down.
The interesting thing is Homer-Williams our BT founder, is trying to get PDX's PDC, to buy the condos as low income housing, at full price. Then later his other PDX/BEND buddies can come back and buy the units at 30%. I'm just bringing this up, because Bend is ran by the same folks that RUN PDX, and its all the same BIG money running all. Here in Bend, we have the same fucking problem tons of CONDOS that will NEVER sell. So, what do you do? The city buys them at full price, and then rents them out as low-income, after a year or so, the city loses its ASS and sells the shit for 30 cents on the DOLLAR and guess who buys it back?? Homer-William's and Friends.
I love Bend, and I love PDX. I love Oregon.
Everyone is TOO BIG to fail.
I suspect that right now becky is talking with the city of Bend, about making the Plaza into section-8 housing.
That's funny, Dunc. I especially like the part about the former NAR economist's inspirational 2005 book "Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?: The Boom Will Not Bust and Why Property Values Will Continue To Climb Through the End of the Decade—And How To Profit From Them"
>>I suspect that right now becky is talking with the city of Bend, about making the Plaza into section-8 housing.
Good for her if she is, because I had imagined her just stubbornly ignoring the mess.
Dvid Fisher, HEY DAVID FISHER! You guys covered The Plaza when it was hot shit. How about a follow-up?
Don't forget that David Lereah's book title and cover was changed. That's what makes takes it from delicious to sublime.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Lereah
Regarding the Tetherow deal what I think is going on, is that the 19 lots that sold were to the dozen 'really rich guys' at Broken-Top, that actually financed the Brenneke buyout.
___________
I have heard rumors of the same thing, they knew the people and said they had direct ties to the development
Just off to deliver another friendly request for docs to the City. More soon.
BTW, tomorrow is a work meeting of the CC regarding the parks in JR. It looks to be something good for a change, making sure 10% is used for parks and open space.
As of this minute, 19 days, 23 hours and 13 minutes until the LS Purchase Agreement automatically expires.
As of this minute, 19 days, 23 hours and 13 minutes until the LS Purchase Agreement automatically expires.
*
you should add a new-year style counter/clock to your web site, it shouldn't be hard to cut&paste a snippet that does this. there should be lots of new-year down-counters laying around on the web as source
Bruce,
Sounds like somebody is FINALLY making city-hall read the Juniper-Ridge DEED terms-of-sale, 1990, 1500 acres, for $1, cost 0.067 cents per acre
It had THREE TERMS ...
1.) NO secrecy public process, they fucked that one up big time. There MUST be a master-plan in place, before ANYTHING is SOLD OR BUILT.
2.) Industrial use, again, big FUCK UP, residential, city investment, ... boondoggle
3.) At least 10% goes towards parks, thats 150 acres JUST FOR PARKS.
Ok, so the meeting is about #3, give them an atta-boy, BUT never let them forget they still have fucked up on 1&2 BIGTIME.
It's understood that Homer is supplying the 'light-meal' as always.
***
http://www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/december_12_2007_bend_city_council_&_bend_metro_parks_and_recreation_joint_meeting.html
***
December 12, 2007 Bend City Council & Bend Metro Parks and Recreation Joint Meeting
Skip to content
WELCOME
Bend City Hall
Skip to News and Highlights
December 12, 2007 Bend City Council & Bend Metro Parks and Recreation Joint Meeting
AGENDA
Bend City Council & Bend Metro Park & Recreation Board of Directors Joint Meeting
City Council Chambers – City Hall
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
5:00 p.m. Light Meal
5:30 p.m. Convene meeting
1. Memorandum of Understanding regarding the development of future parks at Juniper Ridge. (Juniper Ridge Proposal from Parks District) (MOU) (Exhibit A) (Exhibit B)
a. Consider a motion by the Bend Metro Park and Recreation District to approve the memorandum of understanding for Juniper Ridge.
b. Consider a motion by the Bend City Council to approve the memorandum of understanding for Juniper Ridge.
2. Discussion of the proposed future for Brandis Square (Brandis Square Proposal from Parks and City Staff)
3. Update on Murphy Road Improvements
4. Support of and changes to the Park Steward program (Paul Stell and Chief Jordan – per Don Horton)
5. Good of the Order
Executive Session pursuant to ORS 192.660 (2) (a through h)
I will say though, with all this fallout, it sure is spankin' easy to get contractors to call you back now. THEY ACTUALLY CALL BACK! And better yet willing to negotiate! It's nice to be back to normal.
I will say though, with all this fallout, it sure is spankin' easy to get contractors to call you back now. It's nice to be back to normal.
*
Yes, the best of times will soon be here again, and they call us 'pessimists'. We're optimist's we enjoy service with a smile. Hell even the city employees will soon be grateful for a job.
Yes, in Bend Recessions are always the 'best of times".
I don't know if any saw this WSJ, graph from front page yesterday, but I'll try and share.
TWO BUBBLES
stock RE
$13 $21 peak TRILLIONs
136% 153% of GDP, Peak
6.5 6 Loss Trillions (30% re loss)
75% 60% of GDP
2% 48% leverage
The real interesting one is RE-loss, up above its same as dot-com, 'IF' the RE losses are less than 30%, every 10% loss in RE, is $2TRILLION dollar US economy loss. The last, is MOST important, for the dot-com bubble only 2% of loss was debt, here its 48%. Thus those who played DOT-COM, largely lost their OWN MONEY. But in DOT-RE-CON, those that played, lost Other-Peoples-Money.
Interesting story, what happens if RE goes south say 50% or more, then look to $10TRILLION dollars in loss, the largest loss in history from any bubble total.
I remember almost a year ago here I was suggest $2Trillion loss, and you folks called me a fucking IDIOT ( not to say that I still ain't, but the above came from yesterdays WSJ ) page-one.
The last, is MOST important, for the dot-com bubble only 2% of loss was debt, here its 48%. Thus those who played DOT-COM, largely lost their OWN MONEY. But in DOT-RE-CON, those that played, lost Other-Peoples-Money.
*
I'll say one additional on the above observation. Then insult to injury, to add legal parlance. Now we tell the investors that their interest-rate is fixed, thus $3 Trillion of KNOWN OPM is lost, and we tell the same losers that all contracts are NULL & VOID.
Now, remember what I have told timmy for a long time here, if you want to buy house, do so soon, because its going to become almost impossible to get money in the future to BUY RE.
Re: thus $3 Trillion of KNOWN OPM is lost
The real issue is that the OPM being referred to is not just the money-market rich and the bankers, it's municipalities like Bend and all those in Florida that believed the bond ratings agencies. When the bottom third or more of tranches from a supposedly commercial paper offering, like those from Bear Stearns, get zeroed out on the inevitable mark-to-market, a lot more than the rich get fucked.
We ain't seen the deep end, yet.
supposedly safe...
On an "optimistic" note, let me go back to BilboBend's 7/10/07 Post on bendbubble.blogspot.com:
"Let's discuss Davis, California. Beautiful, bike path's, flat, and centrally located college campus. Shop's downtown are all interesting, and best of all like real college towns, lots of cheap good places to eat. UC-Davis has some of the top professor's in their fields in the world. This is the kind of campus model that UofO-Bend should have in mind.
Now let's move to Eugene, college centrally located, fair cheap places to eat, great bike paths along the river. This is what a college town is ALL about, just like Flagstaff, AZ ( UnivOfNoAz )
Now lets go to BEND Oregon, the city-college up on the hill is built on a 45 degree slope, its NOT pedestrian friendly, what were they thinking? Now lets jump to Juniper-Ridge, out in the middle of the Badlands ( Its just a reference ) Now lets build a campus, its going to be fifty years before there is charm around this hypothetical campus,..."
Truth.
We need more hard truth and less of the pie-in-the-sky kind around here.
Truth.
We need more hard truth and less of the pie-in-the-sky kind around here.
Bruce, You don't really mean, you want more truth. The truth about Bend is that most people here, came here in the last ten years for a get-rich-quick, and don't give a fuck about anyone but themselves.
Thus these blogs are simply a form of chest beating in an empty forest.
Just sharing some truth.
The best 'good' you can do is ask tough questions of city-hall, and as you can see in a City of 72,000, there is literally NO ONE but you, willing to go stand in a public forum and tell the council the truth.
Bend is apathy.
Post a Comment