Monday, December 3, 2007

CACB = Cracker Ass Cracker Broke

Man doesn't live by bread alone, so I will take a break from the "Scathing Rant" format that has come to dominate past posts, and just put in some varied observations, mainly from comments which is of course where most of the goodness of this blog lies. But first...

I've noticed on more than one occasion while dropping eaves, that Realtors will talk about Ye Olde Bend Bubble Blog to their listing clients. Usually I am at lunch somewhere (Old Mill lunch haunts?) & will overhear something -- sometimes I don't really catch it all -- but 3 times that I remember, I've heard Realtors in consult with a client recommend, or at least give clear direction to, reaching this humble blog. Usually, just before giving a clear URL or Google search directions, they will deride it as distasteful, disgusting & offensive, in so many words. But one thing is clear: they want their sellers to come here & read.

If you're a longtime reader, it seems pretty clear why this would be so; BB2 ain't exactly sanguine on the prospects for Bend RE, and in fact the past few posts have been primarily dedicated to the Primary Objective Function Of Selling Your Home Via Extreme Price Cuts. And of course, there have been the requisite number of facts, figures, and diagrams to support this recommendation. And it's true: You can sing and dance and make groovy movie trailer posters & all that shit, but ain't nothing going to sell a home for $1,000,000 when No One's Got That Much.

But what's funny is that this blog has apparently become The Hatchet Man for local Realtors. When faced with listers who simply refuse to face the music, well then, with a healthy dose of disgust & the proper hesitancy, they promptly give them Detailed Directions for reaching this humble tome of despair.

And as I've said too many times to count, horrendous price cutting is ALL that will work at this point in moving inventory. That's it. As David Foster points out, without proper staging, you won't even be in the running -- of course this has ALWAYS been true for the past 1,000 years, except for a brief 2 year period starting in 2004 -- but cutting price TO THE BONE & BEYOND is really all you have. It's because The Money's Gone. It's NOT because your kitchen is too small, the paint is wrong, you got no granite, or any other nonsense. There's just No Money.

So it is with a certain sense of cruel irony that I welcome those sent here by their Realtor. They aren't trying to beat down your expectations cuz they're lazy sods. Hell, I don't know, they might be. But if your home is for sale, and it's been on the market for many, Many months (or years), or you've just gotten a lowball that's taken your breath away, and you've been referred here, it's cuz your Realtor WANTS to sell your home. But they've detected Kool-Aid staining about your mouth & nose area, and want you to get a shot of RE methadone. They KNOW full well that it's down to price, and that your anchoring on 2006 prices (plus a nominal 40% due to Bend Bulletin pump priming) will be twice as painful & almost as ugly as 1980's Big Hair Bangs & Cockle Shell Belts. Check the top right RIP/DOA tombstone on this page: Prices have GONE BELOW $100/sf! You check your $/sf ask, and I can damn near guarantee you are asking At LEAST 50-100% TOO MUCH for your house.

Just face it: If you've bought in the past 3-4 years, YOU WILL LOSE MONEY. And that's IF you can even sell. Don't believe it? Here's REAL LIVE examples of the CRUSHING losses already being sustained in Central Oregon.

About The Largest Asking Price Cut is the CUT IN HALF (-49.4%) on this Deschutes Market Road piece of shit.

This piece of shit is like some sort of Neverland Ranch done by hillbillies. It looks like a Fuqua Home was plopped down in the middle of topiary nightmare. I'm just kidding. This place is really not that bad. But the sellers have truly been poisoned by the idea where Juniper Ridge takes a shit, up pops a rainbow. You can readily detect the dollar signs cha-chinging in the sellers eyeballs the minute they THOUGHT they would be in the latest UGB:

INVESTMENT PROPERTY! This 3.86 acres should be within the Bend City limits when the boundary is changed in the near future. The value at that time should be around $2,000,000! The owner can't wait and has lowered the price to rock bottom for quick sale. Great IRC 1031 property to double your money in two to five years.Please See Virtual Tour.

Alas, it was not to be. This piece of crap, like many on Deschutes Market, is a Juniper Ridge fueled fantasy. If you look it up on DIAL, you see a few thing: First, is the Build Date discrepancy. DIAL says this shithole was built in 1977, while the Realtor states 2003. The current owner bought in 1998 for $155K, and so started his listing at a modest 1,000% markup (almost), or $1.5MM. Well, of course, REALITY got in the way, and as the Bursting Bubble hangover has worn on, this guy has blinked the sleep outta his eyes, and gradually dropped his price in half as he realizes What Has Always Been True: He lives in an Old Piece Of Shit Out In The Scrub which has been Overlandscaped, of which there are about 3,000,000 FOR SALE on Deschutes Market Rd. No offense Buddy, but that shit is a dime a ton around here.

I predict this place will soon go into the -50% price cut range... AND IT STILL WON'T SELL. You've gotta realize that anchoring on the Dead Top & even remotely believing that will EVER happen again, or even the faintest shadow of that event will happen again, is simply deluding yourself. Brooks Resources, who made more money than God FOR 20 YEARS cannot bail out fast enough. Here is the problem put MILDLY by big mucka-mucka Mike Hollern:

“Nobody quite knows where the price is going to settle down,” Hollern said. “I mean, pricing is so tough. But if you bought something in 2002 for $250,000 or $300,000 and you missed selling it for $750,000 two years ago, and now you have to sell it for $400,000, is that a bad deal? There was a peak there that some people missed if they didn’t sell. And if they bought on a peak, that’s kind of tough. So prices have to come back to, I think, to a somewhat more normal level.”

What's funny is Hollern is Just Like Everyone Else. He knows the shit has hit the fan, but He Still Is Anchoring On 2006 Dead Top Pricing. He dropped price on 3 RiverWild condos, got mega-free PR, frothing-at-the-mouth lowballers... and still a 67% FAILURE RATE. OK, if the Biggest Developer To Ever Grace This Scrub CANNOT sell after a 25% haircut, What The Fuck Do You Think Your Wimpy-Ass 3% cut will accomplish?

Still think you can "Hold Out" for "Better Times"?

Over on BendBB, a strange little trend is becoming evident. And much like BendBB's heart, it started out small & started to grow:

BendBB during a recent electrocardiogram taken at his Westside cave

It is summarized by BendBB himself, God bless his wretched heart:

Here's a table showing the percentage of new listings since July 2007 that are assumed to be lots.

Month % lots
July 24%

August 19%

September 21%
October 29%
November 40%


Lots as a percent of new listings have doubled in the past 2 months. Renaissance has gone WHOLESALE at Shevlin Ridge. This is shorthand for We've Stopped Building Homes Cuz We Don't Want To Go Broke, So We Are Selling Lots To Anyone & Everyone To Build Whatever The Hell You Want. Even my beloved Ranch At The Canyons, which may be primarily responsible for starting the DISASTROUS "Tuscany" themed insanity (mainly because they actually did it RIGHT), has started going wholesale on their lots. I hope that unlike other misguided attempts to liquidate their financial nightmares, that Ranch at the Canyons doesn't throw CC&R's to the wind to get'er done. The Shire, Renaissance Homes, and many others are Going Wholesale in an attempt to bail out on Bend ASAP. Of course this is Frying Pan Into The Fire thinking, cuz who wants to buy a nice 3,000/sf macroshack only to have a Fuqua shithole airdropped right next door?

And just to counter the idea that I am Captain Bringdown: I think I've made it clear that Becky Breezes cheap-ass AdvancedAccess website is about as ass-ugly as they come. But if you wanna see just about the best executed web design that reinforces (an admittedly flawed) concept, it is BendShire.com. This website is absolutely beautiful! Congrats to whoever designed this beauty. That flash stuff up top is excellent, and this site really does make the concept palatable, and has probably done much to move any inventory over there, if indeed any has moved. If you're a Realtor, you'd do well to look at the difference between BendShire.com & this abomination.

Anyway, you can see from the MASSIVE swing from about 80/20 homes to lots, to 60/40 that builders are liquidating as fast as is humanly possible. If you drive around Bend at all, you see them everywhere: Vast Siberian deserts of lots sprouting rotted For Sale signs, with 1 or 2 spec homes manned by VERY lonely Open House squatters. They are tired of watching their burn rate blow through the Bubble Bucks & are going to dump their inventory of lots by hook or by crook. Of course, they like 98% of Deschutes County selling population is afflicted with Price Anchoring Syndrome, and think they will somehow come close to getting prices of the past few years.

Nothing is certain except this: YOU WILL NEVER GET PEAK 2006 PRICES AGAIN FOR YOUR HOME IN YOUR LIFETIME. Your Realtor won't tell you this, cuz you'll jump ship. Then neither will the next guy, cuz nobody in the RE industry has had 3 square meals in over a year. If you're here cuz your Realtor has "hesitantly" given you detailed directions to find this blog, IT'S CUZ THEY KNOW FULL WELL YOU CANNOT & WILL NOT SELL YOUR HOUSE UNLESS YOU WAKE UP FROM THE FOG OF 2006 PRICE ANCHORING. Cut 10%? Fuck, you might as well spare yourself the dashed hopes. 10% price drops are NOTHING. 20%? Go back to bed. 30%? See, you need to realize that homes ARE UNDER $100/sf IN BEND, AND HEADED LOWER.

BUT My House is (Custom|Built by BigWig Builder|On a Prime Lot|Surrounded By Whitey|All sorts of other IRRELEVANT SHIT)!

Take a look around dumbshit. Your RiverRim shithole is SURROUNDED by price-slashing equity locust, CC&R busting, "I'll rent this fucker if it'll make the mortgage" liquidators that have to sell in the next 60 DAYS or their 401K, their Cali shithole domicile, their 8 year old Mercedes will all go on the auction block. This fucking town is going WHOLESALE -- Sell It All, By Hook Or By Crook NO MATTER THE LOSSES -- at an astounding rate. You think YOUR HOUSE is "SPECIAL"? Look at the White Elephant:

I mean that is a sweet ass little fuckin shack. Nice little guest house to boot. This place has been listed since the Stone Age (judging by it's listing number), has suffered 7 price cuts totally 42.7% -- and still NOTHING. And it's STILL TOO HIGH at $255/sf! There's no doubt, this is a sweet little primo piece of ass, but that shit is a dime a TON. This sort of stuff will soon be under $175/sf. Look at this Traditions East piece of crap:

Listed by our favorite Becky Breeze, she let the seller Name that Tune, who promptly when bobbing for apples in the nearest Kool-Aid vat, and came up with $184/sf! $184/sf for a PIECE OF SHIT GOLD RUSH WHACKY SHACK piece of crap that wouln't even rent for $750/mo? C'mon Becky, grow a fuckin backbone, and tell dumbasses like this to go fish. This little micro crap shack is one of the snot tubs dotting the Triad Homes Siberian Desert East of town. Right next door is Darnel Estate Shitholes trying to blow 'em out for $112/sf! Not to mention the Desert Skeeze piece of crap featured in previous posts that just went to $99/sf.

This is what I mean: You've STILL got a town onerrun with builders, sellers, equity locusts, and Tuscany wannabes trying to get 100% more than what someone RIGHT ACROSS THE STREET is asking. $184/sf Triad? Fuck, you'll have better luck buying Powerball tickets.

Anyway... moving on.

You can see from last weeks comments that someone kindly pasted the recent Bulletin story, "Home prices in Deschutes flatten out". What's funny, and a little sad, is that they are doing EXACTLY what I said they'd do, well over a year ago.

"Still, there are some statistical bright spots in the general market gloom. For one thing, home prices in the Bend Metropolitan Statistical Area, which covers all of Deschutes County, have risen 91.03 percent over a five-year period despite the recent slowdown, and they have remained stronger than the once-hot markets of California and Nevada, where prices slid 3.6 percent and 2.4 percent over the last year."

Everyday, as RECENT HISTORY turns more & more disastrous, The Bulletin has saw fit to go farther & farther into the past to relive the glory years. Hmmmm... now who did I compare that to...

Oh right, UNCLE FUCKIN RICO who is constantly reliving his Glory Years Before His Life Went To Shit. Predictably, VERY PREDICTABLY, this is exactly how The Bulletin has responded to the RE Implosion: Continuously reminiscing about The Glory Years. I'm sure this is a sound strategy. All sorts of Equity Locusts will want to swarm the 188th performing housing market in the US, out of 287. Dang! That puts us in the 65th percentile! Not good. Better stretch our analysis back to before Oregon achieved fuckin statehood.

Of course, this DELUSIONAL BULLSHIT is at the ROOT of why people are unwilling to lower prices: Bend is a magical fantastical wonderland where Anything Is Possible! "Hey, we're at the 65th percentile, DOWN FROM THE TOP 1%, but we can RECLAIM THE GLORY YEARS IF WE JUST BELIEVE!" Of course this will not happen, and will only act to PROLONG THE PAIN. The faster we get cut in half, THE BETTER.

And just a note: If you bought in the past 3-4 years, YOU WILL SELL FOR A LOSS, about that there is No Doubt. But if you've been here before that, and have simply switched homes & are going to sell now & move into another Bend home, then really you are not losing anything. It's like watching a stock go from NASDAQ 1,000, riding it up to 5,050, then riding it back down to 1,500 or whatever. If you were in Bend 10 years ago, you are almost certainly still UP.. a lot.

If you bought in the past 3-4 years, and you own more than 1 home, well then Fuck You. I hope you lose your ass. You're part of the problem. You made homes unaffordable for NORMALS, and you are 100% RESPONSIBLE for the Economic Implosion about to overwhelm this place. Again, FUCK YOU.

But if you've been here long term as a homeowner, your inane gains of 2004-2006 were largely illusory anyway. Cutting your price in half will STILL almost certainly leave you above water. I know several properties where 90% could come OUT of their late 90's purchase price & they will still breakeven. Don't make the mistake several of my NASDAQ bubble playing friends made & Hold On For A Pop: WON'T HAPPEN. Every single person I know who did this lost 90-99%... and it's because they couldn't stomach losing 20%.... then 30%.... then 60%.... then 80%.

OK, Bend has been CUT IN HALF in places. The low-end is racing to the bottom, and that bottom is currently UNDER $100/sf. And it's JUST GETTING A GOOD HEAD OF STEAM. It'll be in the $70's later this year, and you will rue the day (That day being TODAY), when you didn't SLASH to $95/sf to get 'er done. You'll be sitting on your shithole, priced at $90/sf, and some fuckin nutcase in Darnel Flipper Bait Shitholes will be at $49/sf.

It's NOT PERSONAL, OK. It's that there is NO MORE MONEY. NOTHING, no force on Earth, will somehow magically shower speculaltors with dumptrucks of cash. Not gonna happen again in our lifetime. And if you do own a home in Bend, and you are trying to sell it now, well then, mark it up to heinously BAD LUCK, cuz you are going to get caught in the most talked about ROUT ever recorded in RE history. There are homes in Bend DOWN 50% TODAY. Tomorrow, down 75% will be The New Norm. That's YET ANOTHER CUT IN HALF.

Again, my advice is SLASH IT TO THE BOTTOM, THEN ANOTHER 10%. Sounds like I wanna Gut You right? Absolutely Not. This is Cutting Your Losses time. This is about Moving On. It's like winning the lottery, and subsequently having the winnings viciously taken from you: It Sucks, but you wanting it back ain't gonna make it happen. If you've been here pre-2002, then shut the fuck up & take your lumps. You'll be a buyer in a buyers market & you can ride this Cannonball Run motherfucker right to the bottom in a rental, which is at least another 50% down.

Finally, here's a nugg from Timmy, on page 8 of the Nov price changes page of BendBB:

Japan has less buildable land than any other place I can think of, yet it suffered through a near-twenty year real estate drop.


Here's a chart of Japanese land prices since 1980:

Look HARD at this graph. In Japan, there was roughly a DOUBLE from 1980 to 1991 in the Greatest Land Bubble EVER to date. Bend? Bend has DOUBLED since FEBRUARY 2004! THAT'S 2 1/2 YEARS AGO! As I have said AD NAUSEUM, Bend Oregon will go down in history as The Greatest Real Estate Bust EVER RECORDED in this country, and possibly the World. 24 Years into the greatest bubble and subsequent BURST, Japan is right back at DEAD EVEN. Where were we 20 years ago? Half the national medians.

Don't Think For 2 Seconds That Bend, Which Has Experienced The Greatest RE Bubble This Or Any Country Has Ever Seen, Will Not GIVE ALL OF IT RIGHT BACK. Does that mean medians HALF the national? Of course it does... that's $100K. Of course, NO ONE around here thinks that's even remotely possible, but BY GOD they believe there is some way this Souffle can reflate & they can sell their 1,100sf cracker shack for $650,000.

Well, you keep dreaming. Just don't start bitching when you're down to your last nickel, homeless, car-less, and penniless because you were TOO FUCKIN' GREEDY to take what in retrospect would be a bearable loss today.

Finally, let's have a look at the trials & tribulations of Cascade Bancorp, CACB.

Ahhh yes, I remember it well. Remember when CACB Shorter first arrived on BEM's blog, and announced that he was going to put his money where his mouth is, and short this bitch. And how we were all like, "Dang dude, that's ballsy. I don't know though. Hope it works", and so forth.

Well look at me now. CACB must stand for CRACKER ASS CRACKER BROKE, cuz that bad boy has been handed it's own cut in half in the past year. I will add to my litany of misguided predictions that Patty Moss will soon bite the bullet. Whether it's resignation for "personal reasons" (does anyone EVER buy that bullshit?), or a takeover, Moss will be shown the door before 2008 is out. She won't be alone though. The heads of Umpqua & WashMu are also headed for the chopping block. I should note that it really isn't their fault. We're headed for something akin to the early 90's S&L crisis, where banking heads rolled on a daily basis. Will there be a Bank Holiday, per BendBilboBuster? Doubtful, last time we did that it made things worse.

But I'll bet on this, we'll all soon be banking at the First National Bank Of Islam soon. Why this is so is best distilled by the awesome Warren Buffett in the Oct 26, 2003 article, "Why I'm not buying the U.S. dollar":

I'm about to deliver a warning regarding the U.S. trade deficit and also suggest a remedy for the problem. But first I need to mention two reasons you might want to be skeptical about what I say. To begin, my forecasting record with respect to macroeconomics is far from inspiring. For example, over the past two decades I was excessively fearful of inflation. More to the point at hand, I started way back in 1987 to publicly worry about our mounting trade deficits -- and, as you know, we've not only survived but also thrived. So on the trade front, score at least one "wolf" for me. Nevertheless, I am crying wolf again and this time backing it with Berkshire Hathaway's money. Through the spring of 2002, I had lived nearly 72 years without purchasing a foreign currency. Since then Berkshire has made significant investments in -- and today holds -- several currencies. I won't give you particulars; in fact, it is largely irrelevant which currencies they are. What does matter is the underlying point: To hold other currencies is to believe that the dollar will decline.

Both as an American and as an investor, I actually hope these commitments prove to be a mistake. Any profits Berkshire might make from currency trading would pale against the losses the company and our shareholders, in other aspects of their lives, would incur from a plunging dollar.

But as head of Berkshire Hathaway, I am in charge of investing its money in ways that make sense. And my reason for finally putting my money where my mouth has been so long is that our trade deficit has greatly worsened, to the point that our country's "net worth," so to speak, is now being transferred abroad at an alarming rate.

A perpetuation of this transfer will lead to major trouble. To understand why, take a wildly fanciful trip with me to two isolated, side-by-side islands of equal size, Squanderville and Thriftville. Land is the only capital asset on these islands, and their communities are primitive, needing only food and producing only food. Working eight hours a day, in fact, each inhabitant can produce enough food to sustain himself or herself. And for a long time that's how things go along. On each island everybody works the prescribed eight hours a day, which means that each society is self-sufficient.

Eventually, though, the industrious citizens of Thriftville decide to do some serious saving and investing, and they start to work 16 hours a day. In this mode they continue to live off the food they produce in eight hours of work but begin exporting an equal amount to their one and only trading outlet, Squanderville.

The citizens of Squanderville are ecstatic about this turn of events, since they can now live their lives free from toil but eat as well as ever. Oh, yes, there's a quid pro quo -- but to the Squanders, it seems harmless: All that the Thrifts want in exchange for their food is Squanderbonds (which are denominated, naturally, in Squanderbucks).

Over time Thriftville accumulates an enormous amount of these bonds, which at their core represent claim checks on the future output of Squanderville. A few pundits in Squanderville smell trouble coming. They foresee that for the Squanders both to eat and to pay off -- or simply service -- the debt they're piling up will eventually require them to work more than eight hours a day. But the residents of Squanderville are in no mood to listen to such doomsaying.

Meanwhile, the citizens of Thriftville begin to get nervous. Just how good, they ask, are the IOUs of a shiftless island? So the Thrifts change strategy: Though they continue to hold some bonds, they sell most of them to Squanderville residents for Squanderbucks and use the proceeds to buy Squanderville land. And eventually the Thrifts own all of Squanderville.

At that point, the Squanders are forced to deal with an ugly equation: They must now not only return to working eight hours a day in order to eat -- they have nothing left to trade -- but must also work additional hours to service their debt and pay Thriftville rent on the land so imprudently sold. In effect, Squanderville has been colonized by purchase rather than conquest.

It can be argued, of course, that the present value of the future production that Squanderville must forever ship to Thriftville only equates to the production Thriftville initially gave up and that therefore both have received a fair deal. But since one generation of Squanders gets the free ride and future generations pay in perpetuity for it, there are -- in economist talk -- some pretty dramatic "intergenerational inequities."

Let's think of it in terms of a family: Imagine that I, Warren Buffett, can get the suppliers of all that I consume in my lifetime to take Buffett family IOUs that are payable, in goods and services and with interest added, by my descendants. This scenario may be viewed as effecting an even trade between the Buffett family unit and its creditors. But the generations of Buffetts following me are not likely to applaud the deal (and, heaven forbid, may even attempt to welsh on it).

Think again about those islands: Sooner or later the Squanderville government, facing ever greater payments to service debt, would decide to embrace highly inflationary policies -- that is, issue more Squanderbucks to dilute the value of each. After all, the government would reason, those irritating Squanderbonds are simply claims on specific numbers of Squanderbucks, not on bucks of specific value. In short, making Squanderbucks less valuable would ease the island's fiscal pain.

That prospect is why I, were I a resident of Thriftville, would opt for direct ownership of Squanderville land rather than bonds of the island's government. Most governments find it much harder morally to seize foreign-owned property than they do to dilute the purchasing power of claim checks foreigners hold. Theft by stealth is preferred to theft by force.

So what does all this island hopping have to do with the U.S.? Simply put, after World War II and up until the early 1970s we operated in the industrious Thriftville style, regularly selling more abroad than we purchased. We concurrently invested our surplus abroad, with the result that our net investment -- that is, our holdings of foreign assets less foreign holdings of U.S. assets -- increased (under methodology, since revised, that the government was then using) from $37 billion in 1950 to $68 billion in 1970. In those days, to sum up, our country's "net worth," viewed in totality, consisted of all the wealth within our borders plus a modest portion of the wealth in the rest of the world.

Additionally, because the U.S. was in a net ownership position with respect to the rest of the world, we realized net investment income that, piled on top of our trade surplus, became a second source of investable funds. Our fiscal situation was thus similar to that of an individual who was both saving some of his salary and reinvesting the dividends from his existing nest egg.

In the late 1970s the trade situation reversed, producing deficits that initially ran about 1 percent of GDP. That was hardly serious, particularly because net investment income remained positive. Indeed, with the power of compound interest working for us, our net ownership balance hit its high in 1980 at $360 billion.

Since then, however, it's been all downhill, with the pace of decline rapidly accelerating in the past five years. Our annual trade deficit now exceeds 4 percent of GDP. Equally ominous, the rest of the world owns a staggering $2.5 trillion more of the U.S. than we own of other countries. Some of this $2.5 trillion is invested in claim checks -- U.S. bonds, both governmental and private -- and some in such assets as property and equity securities.

In effect, our country has been behaving like an extraordinarily rich family that possesses an immense farm. In order to consume 4 percent more than we produce -- that's the trade deficit -- we have, day by day, been both selling pieces of the farm and increasing the mortgage on what we still own.

To put the $2.5 trillion of net foreign ownership in perspective, contrast it with the $12 trillion value of publicly owned U.S. stocks or the equal amount of U.S. residential real estate or what I would estimate as a grand total of $50 trillion in national wealth. Those comparisons show that what's already been transferred abroad is meaningful -- in the area, for example, of 5 percent of our national wealth.

More important, however, is that foreign ownership of our assets will grow at about $500 billion per year at the present trade-deficit level, which means that the deficit will be adding about one percentage point annually to foreigners' net ownership of our national wealth. As that ownership grows, so will the annual net investment income flowing out of this country. That will leave us paying ever-increasing dividends and interest to the world rather than being a net receiver of them, as in the past. We have entered the world of negative compounding -- goodbye pleasure, hello pain.

We were taught in Economics 101 that countries could not for long sustain large, ever-growing trade deficits. At a point, so it was claimed, the spree of the consumption-happy nation would be braked by currency-rate adjustments and by the unwillingness of creditor countries to accept an endless flow of IOUs from the big spenders. And that's the way it has indeed worked for the rest of the world, as we can see by the abrupt shutoffs of credit that many profligate nations have suffered in recent decades.

The U.S., however, enjoys special status. In effect, we can behave today as we wish because our past financial behavior was so exemplary -- and because we are so rich. Neither our capacity nor our intention to pay is questioned, and we continue to have a mountain of desirable assets to trade for consumables. In other words, our national credit card allows us to charge truly breathtaking amounts. But that card's credit line is not limitless.

The time to halt this trading of assets for consumables is now, and I have a plan to suggest for getting it done. My remedy may sound gimmicky, and in truth it is a tariff called by another name. But this is a tariff that retains most free-market virtues, neither protecting specific industries nor punishing specific countries nor encouraging trade wars. This plan would increase our exports and might well lead to increased overall world trade. And it would balance our books without there being a significant decline in the value of the dollar, which I believe is otherwise almost certain to occur.

We would achieve this balance by issuing what I will call Import Certificates (ICs) to all U.S. exporters in an amount equal to the dollar value of their exports. Each exporter would, in turn, sell the ICs to parties -- either exporters abroad or importers here -- wanting to get goods into the U.S. To import $1 million of goods, for example, an importer would need ICs that were the byproduct of $1 million of exports. The inevitable result: trade balance.

Because our exports total about $80 billion a month, ICs would be issued in huge, equivalent quantities -- that is, 80 billion certificates a month -- and would surely trade in an exceptionally liquid market. Competition would then determine who among those parties wanting to sell to us would buy the certificates and how much they would pay. (I visualize that the certificates would be issued with a short life, possibly of six months, so that speculators would be discouraged from accumulating them.)

For illustrative purposes, let's postulate that each IC would sell for 10 cents -- that is, 10 cents per dollar of exports behind them. Other things being equal, this amount would mean a U.S. producer could realize 10 percent more by selling his goods in the export market than by selling them domestically, with the extra 10 percent coming from his sales of ICs.

In my opinion, many exporters would view this as a reduction in cost, one that would let them cut the prices of their products in international markets. Commodity-type products would particularly encourage this kind of behavior. If aluminum, for example, was selling for 66 cents per pound domestically and ICs were worth 10 percent, domestic aluminum producers could sell for about 60 cents per pound (plus transportation costs) in foreign markets and still earn normal margins. In this scenario, the output of the U.S. would become significantly more competitive and exports would expand. Along the way, the number of jobs would grow.

Foreigners selling to us, of course, would face tougher economics. But that's a problem they're up against no matter what trade "solution" is adopted -- and make no mistake, a solution must come. (As Herb Stein said, "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.") In one way the IC approach would give countries selling to us great flexibility, since the plan does not penalize any specific industry or product. In the end, the free market would determine what would be sold in the U.S. and who would sell it. The ICs would determine only the aggregate dollar volume of what was sold.

To see what would happen to imports, let's look at a car now entering the U.S. at a cost to the importer of $20,000. Under the new plan and the assumption that ICs sell for 10 percent, the importer's cost would rise to $22,000. If demand for the car was exceptionally strong, the importer might manage to pass all of this on to the American consumer. In the usual case, however, competitive forces would take hold, requiring the foreign manufacturer to absorb some, if not all, of the $2,000 IC cost.

There is no free lunch in the IC plan: It would have certain serious negative consequences for U.S. citizens. Prices of most imported products would increase, and so would the prices of certain competitive products manufactured domestically. The cost of the ICs, either in whole or in part, would therefore typically act as a tax on consumers.

That is a serious drawback. But there would be drawbacks also to the dollar continuing to lose value or to our increasing tariffs on specific products or instituting quotas on them -- courses of action that in my opinion offer a smaller chance of success. Above all, the pain of higher prices on goods imported today dims beside the pain we will eventually suffer if we drift along and trade away ever larger portions of our country's net worth.

I believe that ICs would produce, rather promptly, a U.S. trade equilibrium well above present export levels but below present import levels. The certificates would moderately aid all our industries in world competition, even as the free market determined which of them ultimately met the test of "comparative advantage."

This plan would not be copied by nations that are net exporters, because their ICs would be valueless. Would major exporting countries retaliate in other ways? Would this start another Smoot-Hawley tariff war? Hardly. At the time of Smoot-Hawley we ran an unreasonable trade surplus that we wished to maintain. We now run a damaging deficit that the whole world knows we must correct.

For decades the world has struggled with a shifting maze of punitive tariffs, export subsidies, quotas, dollar-locked currencies, and the like. Many of these import-inhibiting and export-encouraging devices have long been employed by major exporting countries trying to amass ever larger surpluses -- yet significant trade wars have not erupted. Surely one will not be precipitated by a proposal that simply aims at balancing the books of the world's largest trade debtor. Major exporting countries have behaved quite rationally in the past and they will continue to do so -- though, as always, it may be in their interest to attempt to convince us that they will behave otherwise.

The likely outcome of an IC plan is that the exporting nations -- after some initial posturing -- will turn their ingenuity to encouraging imports from us. Take the position of China, which today sells us about $140 billion of goods and services annually while purchasing only $25 billion. Were ICs to exist, one course for China would be simply to fill the gap by buying 115 billion certificates annually. But it could alternatively reduce its need for ICs by cutting its exports to the U.S. or by increasing its purchases from us. This last choice would probably be the most palatable for China, and we should wish it to be so.

If our exports were to increase and the supply of ICs were therefore to be enlarged, their market price would be driven down. Indeed, if our exports expanded sufficiently, ICs would be rendered valueless and the entire plan made moot. Presented with the power to make this happen, important exporting countries might quickly eliminate the mechanisms they now use to inhibit exports from us.

Were we to install an IC plan, we might opt for some transition years in which we deliberately ran a relatively small deficit, a step that would enable the world to adjust as we gradually got where we need to be. Carrying this plan out, our government could either auction "bonus" ICs every month or simply give them, say, to less-developed countries needing to increase their exports. The latter course would deliver a form of foreign aid likely to be particularly effective and appreciated.

I will close by reminding you again that I cried wolf once before. In general, the batting average of doomsayers in the U.S. is terrible. Our country has consistently made fools of those who were skeptical about either our economic potential or our resiliency. Many pessimistic seers simply underestimated the dynamism that has allowed us to overcome problems that once seemed ominous. We still have a truly remarkable country and economy.

But I believe that in the trade deficit we also have a problem that is going to test all of our abilities to find a solution. A gently declining dollar will not provide the answer. True, it would reduce our trade deficit to a degree, but not by enough to halt the outflow of our country's net worth and the resulting growth in our investment-income deficit.

Perhaps there are other solutions that make more sense than mine. However, wishful thinking -- and its usual companion, thumb sucking -- is not among them. From what I now see, action to halt the rapid outflow of our national wealth is called for, and ICs seem the least painful and most certain way to get the job done. Just keep remembering that this is not a small problem: For example, at the rate at which the rest of the world is now making net investments in the U.S., it could annually buy and sock away nearly 4 percent of our publicly traded stocks.

In evaluating business options at Berkshire, my partner, Charles Munger, suggests that we pay close attention to his jocular wish: "All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there." Framers of our trade policy should heed this caution -- and steer clear of Squanderville.


Here we see how Buffett fared on his 2003 prediction of a sinking dollar. As usual, he had The Long Wave dead right. And the attempted reflation of the Busting US RE market by Bernanke & Co will only make this problem worse. Read last weeks post on 17 Reasons We NEED a recession in this country. We need to break the back of this Consumption Monster. There needs to be a real Sea Change. Maybe one Good Thing that'll come out of this Economic Tsunami coming our way is we'll learn thrift again. We'll learn to save. We'll learn the maybe Really Being Green is NOT BUILDING OR BUYING 3 homes. Maybe we'll Getting Fucking Real.

ADDENDUM:

I just wanted to post data/graphs from BendBB's Google spreadsheet. These figures exclude raw land. First is the PPSF indexed to 0% back in Feb:

Bend has clearly done the worst, having price per sf rise only 1 month, way back in March. Redmond after being strong for most of the year has collapsed in the past 2 months. Sisters, after having a mini-bubble this Summer, has collapsed to flat & stayed there. Sunriver is the steadiest, rising slowly but surely, and never really swinging up or down.

Here are raw home price medians for the area:

Hard to see much change which is why I post the PPSF indexed to 0% first. November LIST medians are as follows:

Bend: $399,500 ($399,500 last month)
Redmond: $305,000 ($320,000 last month)
Sisters: $459,000 ( $472,200 last month)
Sunriver: $469,000 ($459,900 last month)

Finally here are PPSF medians, which I find more interesting than raw medians, as the square footage of homes varies widely from month to month:

Raw data:

Bend PPSF median: $208 ($209 last month)
Redmond: $175 ($179 last month)
Sisters: $249 ($247 last month)
Sunriver: $284 ($284 last month)

143 comments:

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Economy faces test from housing slide
Tourism activity, new businesses remain stable



Central Oregon’s economy continues to slow, but is relatively resilient despite a persistent, intensifying downturn in residential housing, according to a quarterly measure of the region’s economy.

The Central Oregon Business Index stumbled in the third quarter of 2007 to 175.7, a 0.7 percent drop from the second quarter and 1.6 percent lower than third quarter 2006. The index base of 100 was set in 1998 and nine economic variables, including building permits and employment numbers, comprise the index.

Overall, the index’s quarterly year-over-year declines illustrate that the region’s economy is quickly cooling after riding the wave of the red-hot housing market of 2005 to 2006, said Tim Duy, adjunct assistant professor of economics at the University of Oregon and the study’s author. As housing cools, its effects are limited to sectors directly tied to housing, Duy said.

The third-quarter intensification of the housing slide suggests that this heavily weighted sector will continue to drag down the Central Oregon Business Index in months ahead, he said, with most forecasters expecting the housing market to continue to deteriorate through 2008.

Additionally, that market may remain weak even after it hits bottom, Duy said.

“The housing market is just a mess,” Duy said. “I’ve been saying for a while that these are the two toughest quarters — the fourth quarter 2007 and the first quarter of 2008 — we have to get through without any other major negative shock (to the market).”

If Central Oregon’s economy can weather the housing storm through next year, Duy thinks the region will avoid a recession. A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of declines in gross domestic product, Duy said, adding that a more subjective definition is a broad-based downturn in activity experienced by multiple sectors and consistent with declining employment.

“I’m hoping that in the second to third quarter next year, (the housing market) will stabilize,” Duy said. “A turnaround has been harder to predict and talk about. Talking to mortgage brokers, their business is fundamentally changed because of the lack of access to capital — they just can’t make the types of mortgages they’ve made before and I think the financing just is not going to be there next year.”

The housing market has a limited spillover to other sectors of the economy, Duy said, although employment growth has slowed and retail activity is down.

“There’s no housing ATM anymore,” Duy said.

Woodhill Homes in Bend is one business shackled to housing. The builder this year has logged 75 percent fewer closings and new-home starts compared with the boom years of 2005 and 2006, said owner Jay Campbell. The company also has laid off 20 percent of its work force since that time, Campbell said, with primarily administrative workers going first. As a result, other employees are diversifying their tasks to make up for the reduced labor.

The company currently employs 11 people in Bend, he said, and employed 16 at the peak of the housing market. Some of those workers left on their own accord, Campbell said.

“We’ve in turn focused on the market but also on the business and ways in which we can do things better and improve our systems,” he said. “All that said, and you’ll probably hear this from every builder: There has never been a better time to buy a house.”

Campbell doesn’t expect the housing market to pick up before 2009, at which time he hopes consumer confidence increases.

Labor

Employment growth has slowed year-over-year, with Bulletin help-wanted ads reversing a gain made in the previous quarter. The Bulletin reported 7,452 help-wanted ads for the third quarter, their lowest level in two years for any quarter, Duy said.

The slide in help-wanted advertising is consistent with a drop in hiring, Duy said. Employers added 600 workers to nonfarm payrolls in the third quarter, a 3.1 percent gain over third quarter 2006. That increase pales in comparison to the 19 percent job growth experienced from the third quarter 2005 to the third quarter 2006, according to the Oregon Employment Department.

Initial unemployment claims rose modestly, Duy said, but remain normal for the region’s amount of job growth.

New business filings were mostly stable, suggesting a solid pace of business formation that should support the job market, he said, adding that many of the business filings are LLCs created for the sole purpose of buying or selling a business.

“Overall, the labor market is consistent with an economic environment in which employers are cautious about adding workers,” Duy said, “but remains strong enough to prevent numerous layoffs.”

Steve Williams, regional economist with the Oregon Employment Department in Bend, said the job market continues to grow along with Central Oregon’s population. In 2007, the tri-county area added 10,000 people, he said, compared with 2006, when the region added 11,000 people through births and in-migration.

“We’re still seeing that population growth is continuing, albeit slower than in 2005 to 2006, but it’s still in a range that’s generating demand for new workers and new business,” Williams said. “Recently, the Wal-Mart Supercenter (in Redmond) opened up, and we’ll see another big chunk (of jobs) when Lowe’s and Home Depot open up (in Redmond).”

Tourism and housing

Tourism activity remained strong in the third quarter, according to the index, with both Redmond Airport passenger counts and estimated Bend lodging tax revenue posting solid gains.

In contrast, the housing market is falling faster and faster, Duy said. Housing units sold in the region fell again to a monthly average of 225 homes, compared with 305 in the third quarter of 2006. September was especially bad with 153 homes sold compared with 214 in September 2006, Duy said, reflecting the national tightening of credit in the home mortgage market.

Duy points to 10- and two-year interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds as indicators of the economy. A year ago, the 10-year interest rate reached its maximum point below the two-year rate, he said.

“That’s often a signal of economic weakness,” Duy explained. “It means the federal bank will probably start cutting interest rates.”

Median days a house sits unsold on the market remained relatively stable at 82 days.

Residential building permits for new construction, however, have dropped sharply, Duy said, to a monthly average of 82 permits. In the first quarter of 2007, the index tracked 199 new building permits in Deschutes County. The third quarter of 2005 saw a monthly average of 391 permits.

But the sagging residential market isn’t hurting everyone in the construction industry.

For Steve Herbert, president of Herbert Construction & Remodeling LLC in Bend, more difficulty selling homes means more homeowners are turning to remodeling. Herbert said he has been doing more and more additions to homes and updates to older ones. Many homeowners are choosing remodeling over buying new homes because they don’t want to change neighborhoods or move their children to a new school, he said.

“When home prices fall off in an economy like we have now, people who were holding out (to sell) until the last minute but can’t, remodel,” Herbert said. “Now, remodelers are a good thing to be.”

Anna Sowa can be reached at 383-0304 or asowa@bendbulletin.com

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Median days a house sits unsold on the market remained relatively stable at 82 days.

This line is an obvious typo. If you click on "print" to see all the graphs on this piece, you can easily see that median days on market has climbed from a low of 82 days in Q4 2005 to 145 days now.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

New business filings were mostly stable, suggesting a solid pace of business formation that should support the job market, he said, adding that many of the business filings are LLCs created for the sole purpose of buying or selling a business.

And the 10 fold increase in New Business Filings, I don't think that really signals some sort of "support" of the job market whatsoever. People have become savvy enough to file LLC papers for just about everything. I know PLENTY of people who file LLC papers whenever they start the tiniest add-on or offshoot of their current business. It's really seen as HYPER CHEAP insurance against lawsuits... not foolproof, just another layer between people & lawyers (who are obviously NOT people).

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Overall, the index’s quarterly year-over-year declines illustrate that the region’s economy is quickly cooling after riding the wave of the red-hot housing market of 2005 to 2006, said Tim Duy, adjunct assistant professor of economics at the University of Oregon and the study’s author. As housing cools, its effects are limited to sectors directly tied to housing, Duy said.

That last sentence seems to be another obvious typo. "It's effects are not limited to sectors directly tied to housing", seems to be consistent with the rest of the piece.

Anonymous said...

. I know PLENTY of people who file LLC papers whenever they start the tiniest add-on or offshoot of their current business. .

(*)

Hollern alone has over 1,000 LLC's in Bend, an LLC is NOT a measure of busienss, it is a measure of corruption.

Long ago is was said that the more laws a nation has the more corruption, in Bend or Central-Oregon it can be said the more LLC's, the more likely default and insolvency is on the horizon.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

If Central Oregon’s economy can weather the housing storm through next year, Duy thinks the region will avoid a recession.

Sorry, but these sort of "self-identity" statements are pretty worthless.

"If we can avoid ALL the symptoms of a recession, we can avoid a recession."

I mean, what's next?

"We are not IN a recession, we simply have all the symptoms of a recession."

Anonymous said...

Homer,

What is it with all the buffetology lately? I see it everywhere, fool.com is 24/7 buffet, there is a site called 'coat-tails' that only does buffet.

I'm very leary of buffet, cuz note his listing of berkshire-hath, mostly home-depot, coke, ... I really think the monkey see money do has been keeping buffet going. The real gains on BRK-n were made in the 1970's, sort of reminds me of lynch's fidelity magellan, the gains were all made prior to 1992, before it was even an OPEN-POOL!!!!

Everywhere you go is "Had you invested a nickel in BRK in 1950, you would be a billionaire now ...." It's all irrelevant. I really think the BRK-n is scared shitless, and getting a lot of lemmings to dupe his position. So he can start dumping all this stock that is basically S&P thats BRK hold ( see the bk website, and EDGAR data for holdings, nothing great there, just ma&pa S&P stuff )

No brainer, the dollar has been going south for twenty years, didn't just start happening in 2002. Sure AUST & CAN are even now starting to be stronger than US, so fucking what the USA is FUCKED, and everyone knows it!! You can not spend $3 Trillion on a fucking war, that makes things worse. The USA is now on record as completely fucking insane.

BENDBUST said...

There will 'bank holidays', and it has nothing to do with a government, it has to do with banks, brokers, mtg-invest houses, not being able to redeem investments on an appointed date. There has ALREADY been banks (investment houses) closing all over the country, a lot of people of already lost ALL their principal.

The run on E*Trade started weeks, ago and Country-Wide this summer. The reason for citi getting arab money is for the bank-runs. Smart people have been pulling out their money and buying t-bonds/bills for months.

Everyone here should immediately get "The Great Depression" by mcElvaine, and read carefully.

I don't think there will be a government ordered bank-holiday, there will just be orderly collapse. Everyday more and more people will slowly lose their life-savings. Like the Florida story yesterday, Governments are now getting "Dear John" calls to say that their principal is gone. The subprime Bond Index ABX 'bbb' is now down to ten cents, and that is a theoretical value, the real value is closer to zero. Corporations, Bonds, ... everything is on this paper, and SOON it will be marked to market, then everything will evaporate.

The big play now in Hedge-Funds is going south on Bonds, as most folks are assuming that bonds will soon collapse. The MTG bond HF play is over, that said those that bet write in 2006 did on average 1000% for their clients.

Prior to the great depression insiders ran up the stock market in order to sell it, we know that a few months ago CACB voted to buy their own stock, eventually they give up, and that's when its over.

Again, read the book by mcElvaine, and then look around.

At this point what we should really be discussing is safe investments, a lot of people survived the depression, sadly only insiders of banks knew when to go short and make a killing. After 1929 many bankers borrowed cash against their company and used it to go short against their own company, and made personal killings. Again, you have to be an insider to time this correctly.

This is going to effect the whole world, so simply buying CAN dollars is not safe, they're too tied to us.

***

Read Grand Popular Delusions, and Madness of the Crowds, South Sea Bubble. Folks that pimped the bubble always bought the stock after days of collapse, and that brought ever higher highs, and more suckers, eventually they got tired, and sailed away, and everything collapsed.

It's a double whammy now, with everything being worth nothing, and the dollar as well. Gold is not the solution, as everyone well soon be dumping their dollar.

BENDBUST said...

One other comment about Berkshire-Hath that scares me BUFFETT.

If you all read the "great depression" by mcElvaine, you'll notice that the problem in the stock market was holding companys like buffet that owned stocks, that were leveraged, and pools owned pools that were leveraged, ...

Thus funds went up xxxxxx%%%% during the 1920's because of leverage, on leveraged, on leverage, so similar today, and like today nobody knew what they were worth, because it was impossible to UN-WRAP them.

Look at SEARS this week, its a HOLDING company, LOWES is a holding-company,

BUFFET is close to the top of the food chain, but most of his holdings, are holding of holdings in holdings. All these holdings were created by acquistion and payment of with MTG-PAPER!!!!!!!! These bonds when marked to market will collapse.

I would watch BRK-n very closely.

I think BUFFETT must be scared shitless, today he is the poster boy of success, just like HOOVER in the 1920's, and then the USA turned again HOOVER in the 1930's.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

And I don't see any Bulletin piece about Duy predicting ANYTHING about Q1 2008. The only piece responding to a search for "Duy 2008" on the Bulletin site, had this nugg from almost exactly a year ago:

In the third quarter that ended Sept. 30, 311 housing units were sold, down 45 percent from last year's third quarter. Additionally, houses sat on the market a median of 104 days in the third quarter 2006, compared with the record low of 82 days in fourth quarter 2005.

Deschutes County builders have been responding to the downturn in housing by sharply scaling back construction plans, Duy found: Residential building permits are down 49 percent from their peak in the third quarter of 2005.

"Locally, we know there was quite a bit of speculation activity in housing, especially in Bend," Duy said. "The unwinding of this housing bubble is not causing people to not move here, but it will have an impact."

Central Oregonians may already see lower home prices as developers work to unload their inventories, said Ross Robertson, director of sales and training with the Garner Group, part of Coldwell Banker Morris Real Estate in Bend.

"We've had a lot of activity just in the last two weeks," Robertson said Friday. "With rental prices rising, we're seeing a lot of first-time home buyers and investors picking up homes before prices go up again."

Overall, the market still looks good to investors, Robertson said. He expects most of the housing inventory will be absorbed by the first half of 2007 and as Central Oregon's population increases, more housing demand will result.

"We'll see a dramatic upspike in the (beginning) of 2008 in terms of (the average sale price of homes)," he said.


Whew DOGGY! Talk about your KICKASS predictions! I assume EVERYONE remembers that HUGE SPIKE in the local RE market last Winter. And that DREADED HOUSING INVENTORY that was absorbed like this local market is a giant motherfuckin roll of Bounty.

Anyone still think, "We'll see a dramatic upspike in the (beginning) of 2008 in terms of (the average sale price of homes)"? Anyone?

How about THIS from 1 year ago:

The index measured three variables directly affected by housing, said Aaron Frank, a University of Oregon economics student who worked on the index: housing units sold, the length of time houses sit on the market and residential building permits.

"Because housing is so important for Bend's health, we gave it more of a spotlight," Frank said.


Now today:

The housing market has a limited spillover to other sectors of the economy, Duy said, although employment growth has slowed and retail activity is down.

So a year ago, it's the most important industry in Bend, and today it has "limited spillover" effects. Nice.

Revisionist bullshit, as usual. These dumbshit economist are just making "predictions" based on the recent past. Last Winter, we were barely into the bust, and they signaled All Is Well, now that it's a real rout, they're saying, "Well, I've been saying All Along that Q4 2007 & Q1 2008 would be the bottom." BULL SHIT! You motherfuckers said Q1 & Q2 2007 WOULD CLEAR OUT THE INVENTORY of 2006! Q1 2008 would see a "DRAMATIC UPSPIKE" in home prices? Fuckers have been DEAD WRONG EVERY TIME!

Geez, these guys don't PREDICT anything. Anybody who thinks Q1 2008 will be the bottom in Bend needs to go get a lobotomy. Maybe it's another misprint, maybe he really said "2018" would be the bottom.

This Duy dude seems to be another Roger "The Sun Will Come Out Tomorrow" Lee from EDCO, all of whom seem to be the bastard children of Mike Hollern & Becky Breeze, Norma DuBois, and The Goddess of Self-Identity Logic, Pam Lester.

Who can forget this NUGG:

"In the meantime, though, things have gotten to the point in the local markets, especially for home builders on recently purchased land, where prices can’t sink much further without inviting losses, Redmond-based Century 21 Gold Country agent Pam Lester said.

“I don’t expect prices to go anywhere but up from here,” Lester said, “because they can’t go any lower.”


Notice the pattern: These people have every right to be deluded & ridiculously optimistic, that's FINE. But the BULLETIN ONLY SEEKS OUT INTERVIEWEES OF THIS TYPE. Duy as their choice of OPTIMISTIC ECONOMIST is NO COINCIDENCE. DuBois & Breeze? Are they interviewed for their DOUR FORECASTS? HELL NO! It's THE BULL-SHIT-IN that is 100% for the KOOL-AID POISONING this place has to endure.

And they think, "Hey, it's worked so far! We've had pretty damn good times for a decade!". Uh huh. That delusional BULLSHIT is why people REFUSE to short sale their $995,000 5ac, 1,100sf pile of shitcakes worthless-ass Deschutes River Woods crack-meth factory tubba crap house... the Bulletin has convinced them THAT THE MOTHERFUCKIN SUN WILL COME OUT TOMORROW, YOU JUST HOLD TIGHT ON YOUR PRICE.

Is it any MOTHERFUCKIN WONDER that when REALTORS want to KICKSTART a deal, they DO NOT hand their clients a Hyper-Optimistic Revisionist BULLSHIT copy of the Bulletin anymore, but send them HERE? Answer: FUCK NO, IT'S NOT ANY MOTHERFUCKIN WONDER.

Bend is a KICKASS place, have no doubt. But it is ONE OF MANY. people have choices. But no, The Bulletin ONLY interviews DELUDED LUNATICS like Norma DuBois, who put SELF SERVING BULLSHIT like this on RealtyTimes.com:

This is Bend, Oregon and people want to live here.

Woof, thanks Norma. That should put things right. Deluded Kool-Aid bobbing motherfuckers. In 4-5 years when you are looking like a holocaust victim cuz your stupid ass ain't eaten in years, maybe you'll change that Holier Than Thou Bullshit.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Speaking of Norma "Sold Out" DuBois, remember, this load of shit from April 26, 2006?

Buyers compete for Bend condos
Deadline for bids on Franklin Crossing condos today


The bar has risen again on the price of downtown Bend condominiums.

Realtors opened seven luxury condos on the fifth floor of the new Franklin Crossing building at Bond Street and Franklin Avenue for "reservations" last week.

Six of the seven drew offers at the asking price before the reservation period ended last Friday, Coldwell Banker Morris Real Estate broker Norma DuBois said. Five drew multiple bids, which prompted a follow-up bidding period. The competition may bump the prices up even further.

As it is, the prices are breaking new ground in the pricing of downtown real estate.

The most expensive of the units that drew bids at Franklin Crossing - a $1.1 million unit with sweeping views of downtown, Mount Bachelor, the Three Sisters and the Deschutes River from the building's southwest corner - drew five offers at the asking price.

For a 1,793-square-foot condominium, that works out to about $613 per square foot, and the price may go higher by the time the follow-up bidding ends at 5 p.m. today.

Other units drew bids at similar prices.

Unit 5 on the southeast corner, with views of Mount Bachelor and the Paulinas from its balcony, drew three bidders at $920,000, or about $476 per square foot.

Unit 4, with a master bedroom and great room that share the curved windows on the building's south side, drew two offers at $650,000, or $570 per square foot.

Unit 8, a small unit in the far northeastern corner of the building with views mostly of the alley and of the Phoenix Inn on Hospital Hill, drew only one bidder at $450,000, or $451 per square foot.

On the other end of the scale, the building's priciest unit, Unit 2 with 2,360 square feet of view space, including the curved windows on the building's west side, drew no takers at its $1.4 million asking price.

The reservation period was offered only to a "priority list" of potential clients who had expressed interest in the project, DuBois said.



Then in April of this year, we found out THE TRUTH:

"In Franklin Crossing at the corner of Franklin and Bond — the downtown’s first new five-story mixed-use building — buyers lined up to snap up reservations on the buildings eight top-floor condominium units last spring, despite prices that ranged over $1 million, DuBois said.

But the market changed over the summer, and so did Franklin Crossing’s fate.

Reserved buyers melted away from five of the building’s eight units by the end of 2006, DuBois said, leaving only three sold so far. The remaining five units, priced between $450,000 and $1.1 million, account for about $3.25 million in inventory at current listing prices."


Well, I happened by Franklin Crossing, and found out there has been a SMALL REDUCTION in the asking prices for these piece of shit TOILETS:

The MUCH BELOVED #4 unit that Norma said drew "two offers at $650,000", is now languishing at $590K. Folks, you should take a look at this 1 BEDROOM, 1 BATH, 1,139sf shithole. Timmy, this might fit the bill for you, cuz the motherfuckin toilet is within breathing space of EVERTHING.

And lowly Unit 8, which drew 1 bidder A YEAR AND A HALF AGO at $450K, is rotting at $390,000. Folks, I say again, take a look at this baby, you get a SWEEPING VIEW of the back door of Connecting Point computers, Bend meth addicts favorite place to shoplift all their electronics.

If you need a warm place to sleep off your Thunderbird fueled hangover, then I suggest Franklin Crossing. I was there yesterday, and that place is a fuckin ghost town. NOBODY THERE. Seriously, you could set up a cot, or just set up shop in the elevator, and never be bothered. Even the escalators are TURNED OFF. It's real nice & quiet.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

take a break from the "Scathing Rant" format...

Old habits die hard, I guess....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Just posted by REB over on BendBB:

Nov. stats as of today:
81 sold
1347 Active
$358,000 Median Sold price
124 DOM
2056 Med SQFT

95 listings active over 1 mil...4 sold in Nov. 23 month supply?


That median, if it holds, is WAY up from $319K last month. DAMN IT. I can feel that Burrito money slipping away.

Of course The Big Number here is, AS ALWAYS, is the MONTHS OF INVENTORY at 16.6 months. That "81 SOLDS" number spells THE END of RE as a career choice for HUNDREDS of people around here. More than one "boutique" RE office will close in the next few months. And probably more than one Big Boy. Watch for at least one BIG Old Mill RE franchise to shutter or at least drastically downsize to far more humble quarters.

Go to GoBend.com stats (down around the middle of the page), and you see Oct had a HYPER PATHETIC 108 sales. 81 in Nov is proof that The Bottom WILL DEFY ALL BEARISH EXPECTATIONS, even the most pessimistic.

I doubt Deschutes County has had a monthly sales figure this low in OVER A DECADE.

tucker said...

82 sold Nov. 97

Carl said...

How about someone bringing back some of the "It'll be a soft landing"B.S. quotes that some realtors and other economistas were spouting a year+ ago?

Duncan McGeary said...

Wow. That's amazing. 81 people still bought a house last month!

REB said...

50% of Realtors in MLS sold 97.7% of all listings in the entire MLS. Using the total sold volume, so far, in 07 of 3.283 Billion, means 1050 Realtors made less than $3,000this year. Ouch! Many are getting backup, out of RE, jobs as we speak. Think that doesn't change the CO economy. WalMart has lots of openings and one can make $15K + there, with beni's.REB

Anonymous said...

Anyone notice the number of agents at Cushman/Tebbs Sotheby's has been growing?

http://ccppinfo.com/about_agents.htm

If you have to be an agent right now, selling high end is probably the best place. High risk/High return.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

tucker said...
82 sold Nov. 97


Woof. Per capita, that is a NIGHTMARE.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Anyone notice the number of agents at Cushman/Tebbs Sotheby's has been growing?

Hey, I like that Devon gal. Mary Taft ain't too bad either.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

When I was in The World, I remember that Tebbs & Reuben Garmin were the only net-savvy brokers in Cent OR. Both have broken off from the mother ship & kicked some ass.

If you ain't on the web, you ain't shit.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I don't know when REM got his data, but I saw 1,390 residential Bend homes for sale today. That's 17.1 months of inventory.

Anonymous said...

Tourism YUP, its #1 in Bend, new-biz? Must be the new male only eye-brow & makeup shops downtown. Lots of new biz, or the new men of Bend.


Economy faces test from housing slide
Tourism activity, new businesses remain stable

By Anna Sowa / The Bulletin
Published: December 02. 2007 5:00AM PST

Central Oregon’s economy continues to slow, but is relatively resilient despite a persistent, intensifying downturn in residential housing, according to a quarterly measure of the region’s economy.

The Central Oregon Business Index stumbled in the third quarter of 2007 to 175.7, a 0.7 percent drop from the second quarter and 1.6 percent lower than third quarter 2006. The index base of 100 was set in 1998 and nine economic variables, including building permits and employment numbers, comprise the index.

Overall, the index’s quarterly year-over-year declines illustrate that the region’s economy is quickly cooling after riding the wave of the red-hot housing market of 2005 to 2006, said Tim Duy, adjunct assistant professor of economics at the University of Oregon and the study’s author. As housing cools, its effects are limited to sectors directly tied to housing, Duy said.
RELATED
Articles

Housing ‘a mess,’ but not all bad

The third-quarter intensification of the housing slide suggests that this heavily weighted sector will continue to drag down the Central Oregon Business Index in months ahead, he said, with most forecasters expecting the housing market to continue to deteriorate through 2008.

Additionally, that market may remain weak even after it hits bottom, Duy said.

“The housing market is just a mess,” Duy said. “I’ve been saying for a while that these are the two toughest quarters — the fourth quarter 2007 and the first quarter of 2008 — we have to get through without any other major negative shock (to the market).”

If Central Oregon’s economy can weather the housing storm through next year, Duy thinks the region will avoid a recession. A recession is typically defined as two consecutive quarters of declines in gross domestic product, Duy said, adding that a more subjective definition is a broad-based downturn in activity experienced by multiple sectors and consistent with declining employment.

“I’m hoping that in the second to third quarter next year, (the housing market) will stabilize,” Duy said. “A turnaround has been harder to predict and talk about. Talking to mortgage brokers, their business is fundamentally changed because of the lack of access to capital — they just can’t make the types of mortgages they’ve made before and I think the financing just is not going to be there next year.”

The housing market has a limited spillover to other sectors of the economy, Duy said, although employment growth has slowed and retail activity is down.

“There’s no housing ATM anymore,” Duy said.

Woodhill Homes in Bend is one business shackled to housing. The builder this year has logged 75 percent fewer closings and new-home starts compared with the boom years of 2005 and 2006, said owner Jay Campbell. The company also has laid off 20 percent of its work force since that time, Campbell said, with primarily administrative workers going first. As a result, other employees are diversifying their tasks to make up for the reduced labor.

The company currently employs 11 people in Bend, he said, and employed 16 at the peak of the housing market. Some of those workers left on their own accord, Campbell said.

“We’ve in turn focused on the market but also on the business and ways in which we can do things better and improve our systems,” he said. “All that said, and you’ll probably hear this from every builder: There has never been a better time to buy a house.”

Campbell doesn’t expect the housing market to pick up before 2009, at which time he hopes consumer confidence increases.

Labor

Employment growth has slowed year-over-year, with Bulletin help-wanted ads reversing a gain made in the previous quarter. The Bulletin reported 7,452 help-wanted ads for the third quarter, their lowest level in two years for any quarter, Duy said.

The slide in help-wanted advertising is consistent with a drop in hiring, Duy said. Employers added 600 workers to nonfarm payrolls in the third quarter, a 3.1 percent gain over third quarter 2006. That increase pales in comparison to the 19 percent job growth experienced from the third quarter 2005 to the third quarter 2006, according to the Oregon Employment Department.

Initial unemployment claims rose modestly, Duy said, but remain normal for the region’s amount of job growth.

New business filings were mostly stable, suggesting a solid pace of business formation that should support the job market, he said, adding that many of the business filings are LLCs created for the sole purpose of buying or selling a business.

“Overall, the labor market is consistent with an economic environment in which employers are cautious about adding workers,” Duy said, “but remains strong enough to prevent numerous layoffs.”

Steve Williams, regional economist with the Oregon Employment Department in Bend, said the job market continues to grow along with Central Oregon’s population. In 2007, the tri-county area added 10,000 people, he said, compared with 2006, when the region added 11,000 people through births and in-migration.

“We’re still seeing that population growth is continuing, albeit slower than in 2005 to 2006, but it’s still in a range that’s generating demand for new workers and new business,” Williams said. “Recently, the Wal-Mart Supercenter (in Redmond) opened up, and we’ll see another big chunk (of jobs) when Lowe’s and Home Depot open up (in Redmond).”

Tourism and housing

Tourism activity remained strong in the third quarter, according to the index, with both Redmond Airport passenger counts and estimated Bend lodging tax revenue posting solid gains.

In contrast, the housing market is falling faster and faster, Duy said. Housing units sold in the region fell again to a monthly average of 225 homes, compared with 305 in the third quarter of 2006. September was especially bad with 153 homes sold compared with 214 in September 2006, Duy said, reflecting the national tightening of credit in the home mortgage market.

Duy points to 10- and two-year interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds as indicators of the economy. A year ago, the 10-year interest rate reached its maximum point below the two-year rate, he said.

“That’s often a signal of economic weakness,” Duy explained. “It means the federal bank will probably start cutting interest rates.”

Median days a house sits unsold on the market remained relatively stable at 82 days.

Residential building permits for new construction, however, have dropped sharply, Duy said, to a monthly average of 82 permits. In the first quarter of 2007, the index tracked 199 new building permits in Deschutes County. The third quarter of 2005 saw a monthly average of 391 permits.

But the sagging residential market isn’t hurting everyone in the construction industry.

For Steve Herbert, president of Herbert Construction & Remodeling LLC in Bend, more difficulty selling homes means more homeowners are turning to remodeling. Herbert said he has been doing more and more additions to homes and updates to older ones. Many homeowners are choosing remodeling over buying new homes because they don’t want to change neighborhoods or move their children to a new school, he said.

“When home prices fall off in an economy like we have now, people who were holding out (to sell) until the last minute but can’t, remodel,” Herbert said. “Now, remodelers are a good thing to be.”

Anonymous said...

If you have to be an agent right now, selling high end is probably the best place. High risk/High return.

*

High End, is the ONLY end in Bend. The low-end is gone. The JUMBO east-side cracker-shack is fucked.

The +10K sq-ft BIG-BOY, there are 1/2 a dozen I know of going in Highlands, average time to Build 2 yrs, the subs on these jobs are set, all the homes are being built cost+, and cash. 99% National football&basketball. Somebody has done a damn good job of telling the blazers that its the best place to be, it used to be Lake Oswego, now its Highlands@BT.

Probably not a bad play, the lots are down -50% from high, the cost to build has never been lower, and builders are making deals to keep everyone busy during the next few years.

The people that are fucked, are them dumb fucking folks that moved to Bend 2003-2006 and bought <$1M homes, they're fucked, they now own $300k cracker-shacks.

Anonymous said...

SAC is smalltime compared to Bend, but SAC is Bends future, the RE popped in SAC in 2005, so the following is a picture of Bend in 2008

(*)

Behind the Meltdown: Out and down
The pain lingers long after foreclosure
By Jim Wasserman, Phillip Reese and Dale Kasler - jwasserman@sacbee.com

Last Updated 12:06 am PST Sunday, December 2, 2007

Heidi Paulsen and fiancé Michael Hughes have been knocked down twice by foreclosures. A year ago, they lost their condominium in Folsom. They then rented in Natomas, but the owner lost that condo to foreclosure. Now they're back in Rancho Cordova, where they lived before buying in Folsom.


It's odd, they say, what you remember afterward: the cherry wood kitchen cabinets you loved. A maple tree in the front yard you fertilized to be the biggest on the street. How easy it was to keep the place clean.

For Stephen Cook and Georgia Turner of West Sacramento, the trauma from losing the single-story house on Tacoma Narrows Street last spring remains all too real today. Six months after the foreclosure, little things about their pretty home in the Southport area float back as they contrast their memories with the jarring reality of the place they now rent.

The furniture doesn't quite fit. The walls have no pictures. Strange tile floors make you slip when wet.

Above all, there is the quiet unease of starting over after losing your home to the bank. Last month, Turner, 50, Cook's wife of nearly 10 years, flew home to family in Massachusetts and isn't sure when she's coming back.

"Sacramento just means sadness to me," she says, crying at a coffee shop before leaving town. "Whenever I look at a house now I see an albatross."

Cook, 55, a cabinetmaker and carpenter, eyes the rental where he lives now, just a few blocks from his old home. "It's a little difficult to call this a home," he says.

For more than 7,600 households across the region, the lights of home have gone out this year. Months after their foreclosure proceedings ended, they are scattered to new neighborhoods and to other towns. They are a harbinger of what's to come as the region's mortgage crisis spills into 2008.

Politicians, including Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, as well as officials in the Bush administration are trying to curb the foreclosure problem before it does even more damage to the economy. But it's not known how much a difference their plans to freeze interest rates for some borrowers will make.

Most foreclosure refugees located through public records searches and approached by The Bee didn't want to talk about their experience. In Southport one who did – while asking that his name not be used – stepped out to his driveway away from his family. He stopped speaking every time one of his children came outside.

A few, though, were willing to talk about what it's like to hand their keys to the bank. Their stories about returning to rentals, moving their children to new schools and even leaving town are not easy listening. There are tears. There is even relief that their struggle with lenders has ended. The stories are often melancholy, sometimes bitter and always about learning the hard way that things that seem too good to be true usually are.

"I just wanted to own a home," says Andrea Eddy, 27, a former state worker in Sacramento who lives in Trinity County now, a four-hour drive from the capital. "I thought everything was perfect with my husband and our jobs and our daughter, and that a house was the next step."

A year after losing her new light-brown two-story home at Southport's Huckleberry Circle, she says, "I just wish we never would have bought."

For Eddy and others the goal was a nice home in a newer Sacramento-area neighborhood. And the booming capital region offered countless opportunities to realize it.

Home builders, tapping low interest rates and a new generation of novel mortgage products, supplied more than 80,000 new houses in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties from 2001 to 2006. Southport, south of Interstate 80 off Jefferson Boulevard, almost tripled in population from 2000 to 2007 and saw construction of more than 4,000 homes. Another 10,000 residences are on the drawing boards.

The times were a go-go carnival of fast money, easy financing and pursuit of the ideal new home in West Sacramento, Natomas and Folsom before the next person beat you to it. Those who arrived earliest found they were quickly house-rich and could tap their equity for swimming pools, cars, boats and home improvements. It was a wonderful time for the middle-class dream to come true.

Then in 2005 things started to go bad. Sacramento home sales and values silently peaked and started to roll back.

Anonymous said...

“I don’t expect prices to go anywhere but up from here,” Lester said, “because they can’t go any lower.”

Notice the pattern: These people have every right to be deluded & ridiculously optimistic, that's FINE. But the BULLETIN ONLY SEEKS OUT INTERVIEWEES OF THIS TYPE.

*

What the fuck? Bend city taxpayer pool VCB/DVA is ran by the wife of BULL editor.

The BULL & VCB ( bend tourism ) are siamese twins that share a common asshole.

I really wonder if tourism is really fucking doing that well?

We know that tired figure of $498M coming into the 'area' is three years old. How much actually comes to Bend, how efficient is the cool $1M budget that VCB ( city of bend ) blows paying writers for postive story's of Bend in "Outside Magazine" How efficient? So bike bums and board bums come to Bend. DO they really stay at the Phoenix? Most sleep in the back of their truck.

Also note most interest lately in the PR, we're NO longer compared to ASPEN-CO, now Bend is compared to VAIL-CO, why the change? I think its because ASPEN is a resort, and VAIL, is just a 'gift-shop' in the snow. Let's go-bend, and go shopping @ the old-mill, like Bend has some unique shopping.

Bring them in, and keep business folk keep sending hard-earned dollars to the BULL to reel-them-inn, BULL&VCB siamese twins.

tucker said...

MLS shows 1346 Active, of which, 22 have a contingent offer.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

I'm just using the public site:

Showing properties 1 - 10 of 1390

That res in Bend.

Anonymous said...

Wall St. Journal exerpts:

Troubled Builders, Bargain Seekers United
Lennar's Land Sale
Could Be a Catalyst
For Similar Deals
By MICHAEL CORKERY
December 3, 2007; Page A2

Lennar Corp. has sold about 11,000 home sites to a venture mostly owned by the real-estate arm of Morgan Stanley for $525 million, a large land sale that signals that investors have begun to pounce on bargain deals.

The sites -- in 32 communities in areas hit hard by the housing downturn -- were valued on Lennar's books at $1.3 billion as of Sept. 30. The low price the venture paid is a vivid sign of how land values have plummeted with the downturn, precipitated by defaults on subprime mortgages and tightening credit that have led to a broader slowdown in sales.

. . .

"There is a lot of money out there right now trying to do deals like this," says John Burns, a home-building consultant based in Irvine, Calif., who consulted with Morgan Stanley on the sale. "The problem has been the gap between what the buyers are willing to pay and what the sellers are willing to accept. This sends a strong message that somebody is willing to part with land at a significant loss."

Anonymous said...

Bend's only hope is to find a major high tech employer. A Google or Qualcomm R&D center with 1000 employees. With cheap real estate here now, its a possibility.
But who is working on this? Forget about Les Schwab, that company is going to get acquired before the 'Niper Ridge is built anyway.

Mr Reality said...

Rule 1) Cut the price
Rule 2) Cut the price, but this time cut it to rock bottom, then cut it 10% more
Rule 3) Go to Rule 1
***

Homer, For almost a year its the same shit,over, and over, and over.

When in the fuck are you and the other dimwit renters going to buy a fucking house of your own?

Always telling everyone to sell low, lower, ... Yet yourself don't even have the balls to buy a home, and never did.

Some of the best prices in five years are now available, are you really waiting for the lack of finance? I and most people in Bend suspect the real act, is that you always have been a renter and always will, like the majority of people on this blog.

Once the bottom is hit, you'll be telling people how stupid they are for buying at the bottom because in a generation it will go down again.

Anonymous said...

Morgan Stanley for $525 million, a large land sale that signals that investors have were valued on Lennar's books at $1.3 billion

*

So 50% so what look at fucking Bend. Land that was $100 acre/ went to $2M ( 8 lots @ $300k / acre )

So in effect, we're saying here that $1M/ac is a DEAL!!!!! I don't think so, a deal will be $100k/acre.

Morgan Stanley is betting that the $500M purchase can be pooled and sold as a bottom feeder pool to Wall-Street, problem is it will be years before there is a market for this land. The public wants 'bottom feeder' plays, and Wall-Street will sell them, but this is NO FUCKING BARGAIN.

Anonymous said...

New Juniper Ridge FUCK - SCHOOLS

North JR is in Redmond, South is in Bend. 900 acres is planned, 1/2 to be home, 8 per acre, thus 4,000 homes, which means 8,000 kids. WHO PAYS? Do taxes go to Redmond Schools or Bend-LaPine. An ISSUE NOT mentioned, here is that the JR contract stipulates that ALL taxes in JR go to the "Les Schwab Urban Renewal Zone", therefore no matter where the kids are bused the tax money doesn't go out, which means those in the ZONE, would be double-taxed to pay for education!!!!!! This fiasco just keeps getting more fucked up.

****

When the city first received the 1,500-acre Juniper Ridge parcel from Deschutes County, it was slated to be used for light industrial purposes. As a result, there was little concern about the school district boundaries.

But now that it’s temporarily shrunk to about 900 acres and morphed into a mixed-use community with housing, the district boundaries are a big question mark.

“If you’re building an industrial park and building structures that don’t have residences, it’s not a problem,” Bend Special Projects Manager Ron Garzini said. “You just send the checks to different directions, when you start having residents that it becomes a complex issue ... that’s a lot simpler than trying to fool with boundaries and figure out how to overlay the master plan.”

Current plans call for a scaled-back, 900-acre, mixed-use development, Garzini said. Of those acres, 500 are currently in the Bend city limits and in the Bend-La Pine Schools boundary. But 400 of those acres fall within the Redmond School District.

“At some point, we’re going to be developing inside the Redmond district,” Garzini said. “We could put all the housing in the Bend district and give Redmond the light industrial or the government stuff that’s nontaxable. But the reality is that’s not the right way to do master planning.”

Garzini hopes to finish the development’s master plan early in 2008. Without a master plan, Garzini doesn’t know where a school, or schools, would be built in the development. The first master plan draft did have a technical high school in the Redmond district, which Garzini believes was an oversight.

According to Garzini, three years ago then-Mayor Oran Teater and the council officially committed 50 acres in Juniper Ridge to the Bend-La Pine Schools.

Garzini, who lives in Redmond and whose wife works for the Bend-La Pine Schools, has scheduled meetings between the districts and himself to come to an agreement between them that will ease concerns about the project’s future. He isn’t expecting a heated fight between the school districts.

“I’m a neutral party, and I want to do the right thing for Juniper Ridge,” Garzini said.

Tense negotiating

But both the Bend-La Pine Schools and the Redmond School District want to do the right thing for their districts, and that might mean some tense negotiating.

Smith has been interested in the issue since he was on the school board.

“I didn’t think it was in the kids’ best interest to be driving up and down (Highway) 97, and I didn’t want the city to proceed and then drop the ball on the two school districts,” Smith said. “Many people like to live closer to their school and whatnot, and really it’s not the quality of education, it is the travel, and it is the family having to drive that distance for all school activities.”

Yet there are valid reasons the Redmond district may not want to budge. Juniper Ridge, as it is built up, will expand the district’s tax base, making building schools cheaper for taxpayers. It also will be able to use the construction excise tax, a new tax passed by the Legislature that allows school districts to charge a square-foot rate on new construction in district boundaries. The tax cap is $1 per square foot on residential development and 50 cents for nonresidential construction.

The families who will live in Juniper Ridge will likely bring big taxable incomes with them, and for a district that has struggled mightily to pass bonds to build new schools, those are important ways to raise money to ease overcrowding.

And Snyder doesn’t like the idea of setting a precedent.

“Both Redmond and Bend, we’re fast-growing communities, and the property they have to grow on is north,” Snyder said. “Are we setting a precedent? Where every time they decide to expand the city limits the school district boundaries change?”

Fleming said there are plenty of other places in Oregon that have schools in one city and a separate school district. Among them are Gresham-Barlow School District east of Portland, where some of the edges of the district are in Portland city limits. Some students with Portland addresses attend schools in the Beaverton School District.

By state law, if both districts agree to the change, it can move forward without any problem. But if the districts cannot agree, then the issue goes to the impacted district’s voters — in this case, Redmond’s population.

“We’d have to tell the Redmond voters, what is the benefit to those voters? And right now, I don’t see a benefit to them,” Snyder said.

“It’s really that assessed valuation, it comes down to this math problem,” Fleming said.

Snyder worries about the boundary discussions taking away from the district’s ability to educate kids.

A long process

“There’s all these pieces that go into it,” Snyder said. “With a new boundary, many will be happy and many will be unhappy ... there will be a lot of politicking, it’s a long process and labor-intensive, and it takes us off of our mission, which is to educate kids.”

And Snyder said the other big issue is, if the mixed-use community goes as planned, more students will move into those homes and then there will be a need for schools, creating a need for more bond issues.

“So it’s a question. Are voters in Terrebonne going to support a bond issue for a school in Juniper Ridge?” he said.

Further, if that area is transferred to the Bend-La Pine Schools, anyone who buys there has to pay off any existing bonds from the Redmond School District that were already in place when the land was exchanged. Those people would also have to begin paying Bend-La Pine Schools bonds.

Rexford said that using a formula of .4 children per household, when Juniper Ridge is built, there could be 2,000 school-age kids living there.

If the area stays in the Redmond School District, it is likely that any elementary-age children moving into Juniper Ridge would be bused to Tumalo Elementary, which is currently overcrowded.

Fleming said she’d prefer there be a discussion about creating some sort of regional school or program. And when she says regional, she means including Crook County, Sisters, Jefferson County and Culver in the conversation.

“The push is to eliminate redundancies,” she said. “So we don’t want anything that further divides us.

“We’re dealing with something pretty parochial, and that’s whether the education system is better in Bend or Redmond,” she said. “If we want to be future-focused, it’s about cooperation, not competition. And we need to have the best interest of kids in mind, of educating a future workforce for the area.”

Anonymous said...

“I’m a neutral party, and I want to do the right thing for Juniper Ridge,” Garzini said.

Ron Garzini, Prison Booster, Corrections Corporation of America.

Anonymous said...

Garzini hopes to finish the development’s master plan early in 2008. Without a master plan, Garzini doesn’t know where a school, or schools, would be built in the development. The first master plan draft did have a technical high school in the Redmond district, which Garzini believes was an oversight.

*

Note above, the BULL here makes it sound like a done-deal, that the master plan is now in "Garzini's" hands, yet its clear that KURATEKs idea of Juniper-Ridge being residential is now in stone. Note, the original sale of JR from county to city stipulated industrial only. When in the hell is county going to sue the city of Bend for breach of contract on the deed of sale of JR to the city of Bend?

The city approved Kurateks $2.5M Oct 15, 2007, but Kuratek refused to cash the check. Given that Garzini is now sounding like the residential is on, note also that JR is now back up to 900 acres from 500; orginally 500, then kuratek 1500, garzini 500, and now 900.

There's a lot of compromising going on, and you can be sure that Kuratek is getting his profits on paper, like I have said for a long time, he's going to walk with over $10M, no matter what happens.

Here's a question for HOMER&CUNTS here, what in the hell are we going to do with 2,000 new home in JR? and why in the hell would anyone want to live in that Island near les schwab? There's never going to be a university, its just going to be another low-income crap-shack, albeit this time financed by the city of bend, as an 'investment'.

Anonymous said...

Good News BB2 Cunts; Looks like some shit is finally happening in Bend, there is a major fucking rumbling. Ol Cunt teater got 450 signatures on Juniper Ridge this summer, but Infra-First got over 5,000 to date, to put a ballot in Bend that says "INFRASTRUCTURE FIRST", looks like the golden days of welfare for developers is over!!!!!!!

*** The following is from the current SOuRcE ****

Remember “infrastructure First,” the Bend group formed to push the novel idea that construction of roads, sewers and other such amenities should keep pace with growth? Well, it’s back.

Or, more accurately, it’s never gone away.

Frank Fiedler, one of the founders of Infrastructure First, informed The EYE via e-mail today that the group has collected more than 5,000 signatures on a petition to put a measure on the local ballot. It needs to get about 700 more signatures by mid-February to make the May election, but “if we miss that deadline, we can always extend it to the November election,” Fiedler said.

According to the ballot title, which you can read in full on the group’s website, the measure “would prohibit the City of Bend from approving new real property development, unless infrastructure necessary to support the new development is available within two years of the occupancy date for private development (four years for publicly funded development).” “Infrastructure” is defined as “water facilities, sewer facilities, storm water facilities, transportation facilities, electrical power facilities, schools and parks.”

Infrastructure First members are out gathering signatures in front of the Deschutes County Library downtown every Wednesday afternoon, and sometimes at the trailhead to Pilot Butte and the Juniper Fitness Center on weekends. You also can get a form to sign by e-mailing infrastructurefirst@yahoo.comThis e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it .

Fiedler said the 5,000 signatures collected so far “represents the largest number ever gathered for a local initiative in Bend's history through unpaid volunteers. … I think it shows the dissatisfaction among Bendites with the way the city is managing the growth.”

Hmmm, could be.

Anonymous said...

http://www.bendinfrastructurefirst.com/petitionlang.htm


CITY OF BEND INITIATIVE PETITION



BALLOT TITLE:



AMENDING BEND CHARTER BY LIMITING DEVELOPMENT WHERE INFRASTRUCTURE IS INADEQUATE



QUESTION:



Shall the Bend Charter be amended to require infrastructure be completed within two years of new, private land development?

SUMMARY:



This initiative, if passed, would prohibit the City of Bend from approving new real property development, unless infrastructure necessary to support the new development is available within two years of the occupancy date for private development (four years for publicly funded development).



“Infrastructure” is defined as: water facilities, sewer facilities, stormwater facilities, transportation facilities, electrical power facilities, schools and parks.



A person applying for a land use permit would be required to prove the adequacy of infrastructure, including transportation connections to the nearest arterial street, and that the nearest arterial street would be adequate to handle the demand caused by the new development.



The initiative would require the City to coordinate with developers for construction of new infrastructure to allow development to occur in phases. If there were a shortage of facilities or services, the City would review all feasible alternatives to correct the deficiency, including the management of growth under the state law relating to adoption of a public facilities strategy.

Anonymous said...

Good News BB2 Cunts;

What is it about BB2 cunts why are they so lazy and pathetic

Anonymous said...

What is it about BB2 cunts why are they so lazy and pathetic?


*

Thats simple they're losers, nomadic gypsy's, and malcontents.

They whine about Bend, and wish prices for homes would be lower, but have no intention of ever owning a home, as they have no down payment. They generally just arrived, and they'll all be moving on. That is the good news.

Usama Bin Bend said...

The designer of the WTC towers an Israeli, long ago admitted that the towers were built to withstand the impact of a fuel laden Boeing 707. This assertion was documented in the 1970's long before 911.

The Boeing 767 carrying ten times as much fuel as a 707, created a fuel source that vaporized the steel and concrete, in the presence of oxygen ( winds ).

Osama Bend Laden was an engineer, trained in America. His team knew exact what they were doing. Using basic physics and engineering knowledge, and the Israeli architects documented limitations of the structure they went for the Achilles heal.

I guess that is the hard part for the morons who did the original 911 conspiracy post. They're incapable of understanding that Arab's created the mathematics we use, and the numbers we use, and the law we use. The west in hits moronic hypocrisy has to believe its own government is culpable, rather than accepting the fact that a couple dozen disciplined men with a plan could bankrupt the US government.

To date for every dollar Bin Laden Spent, the USA Government lost $1 Million dollars. In war theory the 911 attack will go down as the greatest military operation in human history. So called hair-lip patriots with two-digit IQ's rather than being humbled by this success, instead blame their government.

Personally this MOST likely all a government COINTELPRO operation for USA military, because the average American simply cannot handle the simple truth that two dozen Arab men with a small budget could economically devastate the largest war machine in human history. For the sake of ego, and recruiting US morons to continue the crusades and pillage the Arab lands, it is essential to perpetuate the myth that Arabs are too stupid to have accomplished this mission on their own.

There will be more 911's, and it will not take many more to bring the USA down to its knees. Long ago Muslim Malcolm X, said that the JFK assassination was just a case of chickens coming home to roost, their is no doubt that any Muslim today with balls, would not have said the same thing, if America today was not the Fourth Reich, and citizens did not fear their government.

GotYourBack said...

Usama Bin Bend said...

Hey, what the H does Usama Bin Bend's post have to do with the price of real estate in BEND?

Someone needs to delete this guy's post. I think he's trying to get you noticed by Internet police looking for anti-government Websites.

To the rest of you complainers about this Website — the truth hurts, don't it?

Great job, you guys. Keep it up. The losers hate you and — that just makes this all the more fun.

Anonymous said...

Hey, what the H does Usama Bin Bend's post have to do with the price of real estate in BEND?
*
Actually 911, is what caused dubya to drop interest rates to record lows, which is what caused builders to recognize the greatest RE boom in their lifetimes, e.g. cheap mortgages to anyone with a breath, liar loans, nothing down; Ergo you could sell anything and quick. A bonanza, add to that fact the city-of-bend was subsidizing 'infrastructure' inexpensive SDC's, and you had the Bend RE bubble.

While NYC may have been ground zero for 911, the results of 911 such as the RE boom/bust Bend, Oregon is-was ground zero.

Today Bend Oregon is the leader in toxic radioactive Real Estate.

Regarding the 'internet police', they're far more interested in Sodomy in general, and as we all know BB2 leads the internet in Sodomy & Real Estate. The "Internet Police", have been watching BB2 for a longtime.

There is nothing new under the sun.

Anonymous said...

Perhaps one of our "winner" renters that can afford to subscribe to the BULL can share the following ...

03DEC07 BULL
Juniper Ridge developers willing to talk; Latest letter rejects city’s terms, suggests a mediator

Anonymous said...

The losers hate you and — that just makes this all the more fun.

*

Who are the 'losers'. My humble opinion, that be the taxpayer of Bend. All the newbies that came to Bend in the last five years to catch the RE-BUBBLE wave are now foreclosures. Thus, they'll be moving on. Who will get to hold the bag?

The real losers in Bend, are the old timers that didn't play, and now will have to pay.

Anonymous said...

A good note, catch the ktvz pic of Abernethy, he looks DUBYA grey, I mean he looks like shit. You know its NOT fun anymore to be even NEAR Bend politics these guys for a long time were golden, and now they're being treated like shit.

Anyone want to be how long they stick around??

http://www.ktvz.com/Global/story.asp?S=7418980

Note, its NOW all about "INFRASTRUCTURE" CUNT ABERNETHY gave away the fucking store, and now the citizens are out to tar&feather his ass. Now that the money is gone his GOLDEN fucking protectors are NO-WHERE to be found.

Fucking hiding at The Plaza is my guess, its going to get very UGLY.

Check out what's happening in Stockton?

Note also today, like I have said all along here, and caught hell back in the SPRING, "EVERYONE IS SUBPRIME", this in TODAYS WSJ, EVERYONE WAS SOLD SUBPRIME LOANS!!!!!!

Expect to start seeing major MTG bosses jumping out of windows, the legislation is coming to punish those that wrote mortgages, and the sages of Wall-Street are saying these are bottom times, once the indictments are delivered generally thats the worse of the News, and then you have hit bottom!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

**************


Juniper Ridge developers willing to talk
Latest letter rejects city’s terms, suggests a mediator
By Peter Sachs / The Bulletin

In the latest salvo between the city of Bend and Juniper Ridge Partners, the master developer of the city’s 1,500-acre project, the firm says it’s willing to come back to the bargaining table — but not on the city’s terms. Relations broke down in October, and ever since, the fate of the university-centered development has hung in limbo.

The master developers of Bend’s 1,500-acre Juniper Ridge project suggested to the city Friday that bringing in a mediator with experience in big developments would help the two sides hash out an agreement.

In a letter e-mailed to the City Council and numerous city officials Friday, Jeff Holzman and Ray Kuratek of Juniper Ridge Partners said they are willing to return to the negotiating table, assuming the city “can commit to something long enough to make it work.”

The letter is the latest in a series of exchanges that started Oct. 23, when Bend Special Projects Manager Ron Garzini told the developers that the city needed to change the terms of a development agreement to reduce its risks.

Garzini said Sunday he stands by that letter, as it is “in the very best interest of the city.”

“I can’t tell whether this is a rejection of the Oct. 23 letter or not,” Garzini said in response to the Friday letter from the developers. “And if it is, then I’m seriously not interested in bargaining further.”

Kuratek said Sunday that the letter was clear in rejecting Garzini’s terms, but that he was still willing to talk with the city.

“We’re ready to do some things, but if you’re just going to tell us, ‘It’s this way or the highway,’ that’s not going to be productive and it’s going to lead to litigation,” Kuratek said.

The grand vision for Juniper Ridge, which both city officials and the developers independently say they all still support, includes a university, research and development park, town center, performing arts complex and thousands of homes on the north side of the city. The draft development agreement that the city and developers were seemingly close to finalizing in mid-October would have padded the city’s coffers with as much as $200 million from land sales over the next 25 years.

On Nov. 20, the city sent its most recent letter to Juniper Ridge Partners, offering to negotiate based on Garzini’s terms or sever their relationship as per a 2006 handshake agreement between the two parties. The city also offered to buy the master plan, which would guide development of the project.

In their letter Friday, Holzman and Kuratek chastised the city for changing its mind in recent years and being unable to settle on a structure for the complex project.

“You will forgive us if we no longer know what the City wants,” they wrote in the letter. “We wonder sometimes if the City itself even knows.”

At the end of their letter Friday, Holzman and Kuratek suggested bringing in Dave Leland, a Portland land use consultant, as an independent mediator to work with the city and Juniper Ridge Partners.

The city most recently hired Leland as a consultant on the Central Area Plan, which envisions redeveloping part of the Third Street corridor into a high density mixed-use area. Leland wrapped up his work on that project in September.

Before that, the city used Leland in 2005 to provide advice on how to proceed with Juniper Ridge before it picked a master developer. At the time, Leland cautioned the city not to place too many restrictions on the project before picking a developer.

Garzini said the City Council will likely discuss the most recent letter during a closed-door meeting Wednesday night.

The relationship between the city and Juniper Ridge Partners started falling apart in late October, when Garzini said in a letter to the developers that the city would have to hold off on development until coming up with a solution to the traffic congestion at the intersection of U.S. Highway 97 and Cooley Road.

At the time, Garzini pointed to a letter from the Oregon Department of Transportation and his own financial risk assessment in saying that the draft deal with Juniper Ridge Partners left the city carrying too much risk.

Garzini said Sunday that a method for resolving the intersection’s problems would have to be part of the development agreement. Such a provision could include the developer paying for part of an interchange at the intersection, in exchange for a specific number of car trips that could be applied toward businesses or homes at Juniper Ridge.

The city is narrowing down options for a mid-term fix at the intersection, which would likely involve passing Cooley Road under both the highway and the railroad tracks there. It could cost as much as $30 million.

“My concern is that the developer have sufficient funds to help us acquire trips for the mid-term improvement, and it really doesn’t matter how that occurs,” Garzini said.

Kuratek suggested he would be willing to negotiate on the intersection issue, but said he would not accept “unilateral” terms from Garzini.

“Maybe I’m being overly optimistic when I try to read into things (Garzini) says that indicate maybe there’s flexibility on the city’s part,” Kuratek said. “We want to make the deal, but we have to make it on terms that are fair for both parties.”

__________________


Timeline

Sept. 8, 2006
: The city and Juniper Ridge Partners sign a memorandum of understanding, which in broad terms sets out what a formal development agreement would look like. The development agreement would spell out the responsibilities of both the city and the developer and would define how profits get divided. Only one paragraph of it is binding. It requires a period of exclusive negotiation and for the city to pay up to $2.5 million of the developer’s expenses if the two sides can’t reach an agreement.

Sept. 5, 2007: A loose coalition of residents, including nine former mayors, present a petition with 450 signatures to the Bend City Council, asking officials to reconsider the direction of the Juniper Ridge project.

Oct. 15: Special Projects Manager Ron Garzini releases a policy statement summarizing major parts of the development agreement and suggesting that the city should add an exit clause that would let it get out of the agreement in the future.

Oct. 23: Garzini announces a delay of the project while the city works out traffic problems, and he seeks a number of new terms in a pending development agreement.

Nov. 1: In reply to Garzini’s new terms, developers Jeff Holzman and Ray Kuratek send a letter to the city saying they would be willing to renegotiate on the original terms, not his new ones. Otherwise, they want to dictate their own severance terms, including that they receive a cut of future land sales.

Nov. 20: The city offers Juniper Ridge Partners the option of renegotiating on the city’s terms or severing the relationship based on the Sept. 8, 2006, agreement. The city also offers to negotiate over payment for the master plan so the city can own it.

Nov. 30: Juniper Ridge Partners responds again, saying it is willing to start talking, but not under Garzini’s Oct. 23 terms, and suggests bringing in an outside mediator to help.

Anonymous said...

“We’re ready to do some things, but if you’re just going to tell us, ‘It’s this way or the highway,’ that’s not going to be productive and it’s going to lead to litigation,” Kuratek said.

*

Remember the Les Schwab deal, how a tire-flipper racket, gave the city an ultimatum, that will end up costing us $100M. Here Kuratek is playing by the same rule's. He knows the City Council has NO balls. He threatens to make stuff public, he might pull this off.

Note also the Garzini is being trivalized. Let's NOT forget here the Kuratek is still getting $2k/day on that 'handshake', while Garzini only gets $333/day for his 'handshake'.

No matter what happens here, the "we the people of Bend, get fucked".

Kuratek is basically saying, "I will not deal with Garzini, he's persona-non-grata, another out of town nobody! Kuratek is demanding that the city-council meet him in the ring, with a referee of his choice. It's clear that Garzini doesn't have a plan. It's clear that the city MUST have a master-plan in place to satisfy the Juniper Ridge "DEED", otherwise someone will SUE the city and Les Schwab when Borgman ascends his new castle.

Pure and simple this is ALL a fucking mess, and its clear that NOBODY has the balls or will to fix things. All goes back to secret deals. Kuratek is saying, "Deal with ME, or I take everything public", that to me is worth at least $20M in todays dollars. If Kuratek starts deposing folks in this town, and then hires super-lawyer that always beats the city, this mess is going to make the RE bubble implosion look small.

My guess is Garzini has played his BullDog routine, and Kuratek has seen it all before, and simply told the city to put your dog back on its leash. A cheap dog at that.

My bet is the city finds a bigger, meaner BULLDOG, which is going to cost them $20k/day. Thus my whole point last month they could have gotten rid of Kuratek for $10M, now its $20M, and its just going to keep going up, as he has ONLY TIME on his hands, and the City is going to see their SUPER TOP SECRET LES-SCHWAB deal IMPLODE, if they don't get that Master-Plan in place to satisfy the county "DEED".

Anonymous said...

prediction on Juniper-Ridge, and the Kuratek deal:

The BULL or SORE ain't going to go PUBLIC, its going to be the Oregonian, or some outside news source that matters.

'Dick' Borgman ( Les Schwab CEO ) MUST be sweating, because when this thing goes PUBLIC back to the EDCO setup, heads are going to ROLL all over the region. Borgman may not even maintain his CEO status if this goes public.

That's why I'm saying right now at this time $10-20M in city money cash, for Kuratek to go away, and not file a lawsuit is what he's worth. In the meantime as Oregon looks on Bend with skepticism, some writer at the Oregonian, is going to BUST this thing wide, and get a Pulitzer prize.

Personally I think its in Kurateks interest, the current plan of Garzini in Borgman kills the original DEED and Juniper-Ridge "Guidelines".

Going public, and having a lawsuit, Kuratek will walk with close to $20M in damages, he'll still get to control JR because its his plan, Garzini will be out, and so will Borgman, and most of City Council.

The master plan of Kuratek will get scaled back, hell by then the Bend Bubble will have passed bottom, and investors will be wanting to invest on Bend at the bottom. Juniper Ridge will have unlimited financing.

Garzini, Borgman, EDCO, VCB/DVA, ... Represent old guard. The pendulum is going to swing, and KURATEK's plan is essentially liberal Pollyanna, which will go fine marketing the new Post Bubble Collapse Bend.

Remember what's going on here behind the scenes is a power struggle over Juniper-Ridge, you have the EDCO team that wants Les Schwab to steal the whole thing, and then you have City-Hall, Planning, ... who want create a Post Depression style great public works project.

Once everything goes public, the cockroaches at EDCO will all disapear.

Originally as Duncan said Garzini would do this for free, but at some point he's only treading water for peanuts in this game. Thus, again my bet is a new pit bull very quickly be hired.

WHY, pray tell?? Because six times in ROW now Garzini has demanded secrecy and told Kuratek NOT to talk to the public, and what does KURATEK DO? He sends an email to EVERYONE accept Garzini, he knows exactly how to put 'salt in the wound of Bend'. The 'bad cop' Garzini only works when you play his game, but Kuratek is NOT playing Garzinis game, and Garzini as an OLD PRISON BULL, on knows one game and that is ROUGH EM UP IN PRIVATE.

You take Garzini public, and he's completely CASTRATED.

Anonymous said...

One Portlander's take on the Bull article:

Saying Bend's "economy" is "relatively resilient despite a persistent, INTENSIFYING downturn in residential housing" is like saying:

"If it weren't for baseball the Chicago Cubs wouldn't suck nearly as much"? Well...? WTF?

O.K, whatever.

bruce said...

Couple of notes:

1) As of Nov. 26, LS has still not pulled the trigger on the actual sale. The clock is ticking towrds the 12/31/07 automatic cancellation of the agreement.

A possible sticking point for LS is if they think they are going to get stuck with that $30M bill for the mid-term solution interchange.

2) Re: Garzini, Borgman, EDCO, VCB/DVA, ... Represent old guard.

I am assuming you include the Chamber of Commerce in that group.

If so, please note that the head of the CoC went along with Andy to check out Kuratek.

"John Russell, with Chamber of Commerce CEO Mike Schmidt, went to San Mateo, California to interview city staff for several hours (Community Development Director, Senior Engineer and Zoning Administrator/Principal Planner) who worked directly with Ray Kuratek on the Bay Meadows development. A meeting was also held with the San Mateo Chamber of Commerce Director, who also knows Mr. Kuratek. Finally, Mr. Schmidt, coincidentally, knew a former employee who now works for a company that is involved in the Bay Meadows project, and talked with that person."

You would think if they are checking references they would talk with Paine Webber-UBS, who Kuratek actually worked for, but maybe that isn't possible in this day and age.

bruce said...

OK, cunts, some macro-political stuff:

"Today in Iowa, he was again asked whether, and how, he would make good on his pledge.

Here's what this good man had to say.

ALGONA, IOWA -- John Edwards, who has pledged that as president he would strip health coverage from congressional members if they did not adopt universal healthcare, faced sharp voter skepticism Sunday over whether he could achieve that and other campaign goals.

On the first day of a two-day drive around iced-over north-central Iowa, Edwards was asked by 62-year-old retired teacher John Nordman whether it was "credible" for Edwards to say that as president, he would have the power to strip Congress of its health coverage.

http://www.latimes.com/...

He was asked a question, and oh my God, he answered it--honestly.

Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, acknowledged that he could not do it unilaterally and would have to use political pressure to force Congress to act. It could be done by submitting a bill forcing members to either vote for universal healthcare or lose their own coverage -- a measure that would target Republicans because, he said, all Democrats would support it.

"I want to see a Republican senator or congressman take the position that they're going to defend their healthcare and vote against healthcare for their constituents," Edwards said. "I will make sure every voter in their state knows they are protecting themselves against the interests of the people that they represent. I'm telling you, this will work."

What does this have to do with Bend RE?

Simple--take away most of my $680 a month in health insurance costs, plus the co-pays, and I have more monthly money to buy a house. Pretty simple.

I love JRE's strategy.

More here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/12/3/193639/304

Anonymous said...

"'Dick' Borgman ( Les Schwab CEO ) MUST be sweating, because when this thing goes PUBLIC back to the EDCO setup, heads are going to ROLL all over the region. Borgman may not even maintain his CEO status if this goes public.

That's why I'm saying right now at this time $10-20M in city money cash, for Kuratek to go away, and not file a lawsuit is what he's worth. In the meantime as Oregon looks on Bend with skepticism, some writer at the Oregonian, is going to BUST this thing wide, and get a Pulitzer prize."
--------------

The Oregonian and all it's weasels have very small balls and even smaller penises.

Remember how they took on Sen Packwood? (If you want to know what's happening in Oregon, read the WashPost).

And remember the Neil Goldschmidt expose? Neil spoonfed the Oregonian first, that his quiting the OR Board of Higher Ed was due to a bad heart. Then he said that his "affair" was over "about a year" and was with "a high school student".

It was Willamette Week that proved he *raped* a *13 year old* for over *three years*.

Give up on the idiots at the O, go find a real investigative journalist reporter at the WillyWeek. Google Nigel.

Anonymous said...

"I love JRE's strategy.
More here: http://www.dailykos"
-----------

Get rid of your worthless national political bullshit, you commie dailyKos idiot.

Anonymous said...

WillyWeek. Google Nigel.
------------------

Nigel is the best.

He SMOKED the pathetic Oregonian on the Goldy scam.

And the WillyWeek is the leader on BernieGate.

Nigel would ream Bend a couple of new orfices. He would have the politicos, and Borgman sweating bullets. Even Gazrazitini would piddle in his polyester pants when Nigel starts looking around.

Anonymous said...

2713614 sold for $1,650,000, $1 over asking on 11/29. A blind squirrel gets a nut.

Anonymous said...

Nigel would ream Bend a couple of new orfices. He would have the politicos, and Borgman sweating bullets.
*
Yes, but HBM has balls the size of the rooster at 14th and Galveston, he's not going to let Nigel steal the story?

Anonymous said...

HBM does not even haave a cock, thus his pet rooster.

HBM is so small and shriveled up, his wife needs a magnifying glass just to find it.

HBM is the bruce idiot who babbles on about moveon.org and BlowDry $400 haircut idiot Edwarduffus.

Anonymous said...

It was Willamette Week that proved he *raped* a *13 year old* for over *three years*.

*

That was Hebrews protecting Hebrews, completely different story. Big-O ( Oregonian ) is own by KKR, NYC junk-bond firm, which owned Goldschimdt, and the Willamette Week Hebrew Weasels courtesy of Rabbi Rose. Bend has NO fucking Hebrew action, its ALL MOMRON here, thus the Hebrew's are licky their chops to set the Mormrons back a few generations. Yes, Gertrude, its all politics. Lastly, the fucking 13 yr old that Goldy was bopping was fucking goyim, doesn't, not chattel, not even meat.

Anonymous said...

Please don't discuss Bruce he died this week from Toxic Shock Syndrome.

bruce said...

Re: "I love JRE's strategy.
More here: http://www.dailykos"
-----------

Get rid of your worthless national political bullshit, you commie dailyKos idiot.

You wouldn't want to save our country a few trillion and get on a equal health care cost level as say France?

Sorry, you are a fucking idiot. Stick your head in the sand in Iraq along with the rest of your ilk. And continue giving Bush and his buds your money.

Some of the stupidest and nastiest shit I've read in a while is right here.

Sad fact, IHTBYB.

Anonymous said...

bruce said...

Couple of notes:
*

I thought you had TSS from shoving Bread-Sticks up your pussy, and here you are monday night post Deschutes happy hour, I have Bendbb in my fuckng arms ( well sort of he's between my legs ), and your still here!!! There is a god!! God Bless Bend. God save Bruce!!

Anonymous said...

John Edwards, who has pledged that as president he would strip health coverage from congressional members if they did not adopt universal healthcare
*

Give me a fucking BREAK, I remember about 25+ years ago today at Lewis & Clark College, Jesse Jackson was running for prez and said "If I'm elected I'm going to get rid of the CIA and secret-service", ....

I was sitting right next to a secret service guy, who started laughing his fucking ass off. He had the dark glasses, ear-phone and all. Here was the CIA, and secret-service protecting jacksons arse and he's talking non-sense, its the same non-sense of Edwards, the fact is the existing health-care rewards system owns Edwards, like ya he's going to fuck those who pay for his campaign, it was like ya, the only thing between Jackson and the public was the secret service, and the CIA. Like ya, these guys are going to fuck the status quo.

NOT GOING TO FUCKING HAPPEN.

Anonymous said...

Some of the stupidest and nastiest shit I've read in a while is right here.

Sad fact, IHTBYB.

*

I agree, I think its time to post that picture of Bruce's pussy again, its monday, its time to get nasty.

Anonymous said...

HBM is the bruce idiot who babbles on about moveon.org and BlowDry $400 haircut idiot Edwarduffus.

*

Nah, the real HBM sits next to the world frisbe golf champ, aka Aaron Switzer.

Our Bruce, is from Sand Point, UT, and is a polygamous. If he stays long enough in Bend he'll become a sodomist, e.g. one of us.

bruce said...

Anonymouse, you are too stupid to fight with.

bruce said...

This is getting richer and richer (in more than one way, I'm sure we'll find out), from this morning's BULL, and behind the pay firewall online:

"COUNCILORS WILLING TO TALK JUNIPER WITH MASTER DEVELOPERS"

"Bend city councilors appeared guardedly optimistic Monday that the city would be able to sit down and talk again with the master developers for its 1,500-acre Juniper Ridge project, though they expressed concerns about the tone of a recent letter from the developer.
...
In letters and recent interviews, Ray Kuratek, one of the master developers, has threatened to sue the city for negotiating in bad faith, somthing that could cost the city millions of dollars if it resulted in protracted litigation."

Cue some more dumbness from our councilors--someone with E-BULL access will have to cut and paste it all.

A question for our councilors: Kuratek and Holzman were supposed to bring $30M to the table. if they can't, they are in a basic default position.

They can't. Inform them that if they can't cure this default within a short time frame, like 90 days, that the abolute most they are going to get is the $2.5 million, if they give up the master plan.

Grow a fucking spine. Don't hang us citizen taxpayers out to dry yet again.

I'm not hopeful any of our fine councilors has a spine. At least, those that are not in on the game somehow.

bruce said...

Sorry, just into my first cup of coffee, fingers aren't working yet. I hate typos.

bruce said...

Oh, I just have to add this idiocy from Councilor Linda Johnson:

"At this point the city could use some expert guidance."

Ya think?

Or do you think that point was back before your staff tossed out the Trammel Crowe response to the original RFP?

bruce said...

This is kind of odd"

"Background: The City of Bend received tentative approval to partition a portion of the Juniper Ridge property into three parcels in order to sell the Les Schwab Corporate Headquarters site. Bend Development Code section 3.4.300(D)(2) requires, as a condition of approval, that the land owner of a proposed subdivision or partition sign an annexation agreement with the Park District."

Everything I've ever seen only shows two parcels for Les Schwab.

From the Issue Summary on the required Park District annexation formality, scheduled for tomorrow night's Council Meeting, doc is here: http://www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/docs/IS_Park_District_Annexation.pdf

Anonymous said...

Juniper Ridge property into three parcels

*

"All I know what what I read in the BULL"

That said, recently in the BULL they said 900 acres, which is interesting, because it was 1500, and garzini dropped to 500, now its 900.

My guess is that Les Schwab will be partitioned to be outside of Juniper Ridge, for the sake of the master-plan, that's parcel-1, then there's the 900 acres for development, and the remaining 580 acres for reserve [ note schwab got 20 acres ].

It's a real mess, the meeting currently is about who is going to pay for schools. The JR plan says that ALL revenue for JR, stays in the JR-Urban Renewal Zone, thus occupants of JR will be double taxed, once for JR, and second for the school district that win's JR, most notably tonight.

Also GO back to the DEED it says 10% of JR must be "PARK", I never seen anyone allocating 150 acres to a park, on any plan to date. It's like they don't give shit about the DEED at all.

Anonymous said...

Or do you think that point was back before your staff tossed out the Trammel Crowe response to the original RFP?

*

Given that Kuratek has gotten $2k/day since 2005, I would think their budget for consultants would be a little over-budget by now, especially given the outcome.

Where in the hell does this money come from??

Anonymous said...

Ray Kuratek, one of the master developers, has threatened to sue the city for negotiating in bad faith, somthing that could cost the city millions of dollars if it resulted in protracted litigation."

Cue some more dumbness from our councilors--someone with E-BULL access will have to cut and paste it all.

A question for our councilors: Kuratek and Holzman were supposed to bring $30M to the table. if they can't, they are in a basic default position.

[ There is NOTHING in writing that said this was a contingency. ]

They can't. Inform them that if they can't cure this default within a short time frame, like 90 days, that the abolute most they are going to get is the $2.5 million, if they give up the master plan.

[ The $2.5M is-was a agreed severance, the master-developer walks with the master-plan. That was agreed back in 2005. ]

Grow a fucking spine. Don't hang us citizen taxpayers out to dry yet again.

[ In Bend the taxpayers always get hung out to dry, always have, always will. Get over it. ]

I'm not hopeful any of our fine councilors has a spine. At least, those that are not in on the game somehow.

[ The councilors have a spine, and that's Kuratek. Its the OWNERS of the city Schwab, EDCO, HOLLERN, Teater: It's these good ol-boyz that want to kill the Kuratek deal and steal his master-plan. The city council wants to see the plan succeed they believe in the plan. The good ol-boyz want to steal Juniper-Ridge, and then let Les Schwab parcel it out to insiders. This is how old Bend has always worked. ]

Anderson brought back Garzini [ cave-troll ] in order to get rid of Kuratek, the 450 ol-boyz signature drive forced city-council to fire Anderson and hire Garzini back.

The master-plan was developed by Kuratek, its simply NOT FAIR to steal his plan, and let Les Schwab and EDCO ( HOLLERN,... ) make ALL the money, this is what this is all about, the GOOD OLD BOYZ, can't stand seeing an outsider make money off Bend, thus they're trying to destroy Kuratek. City Council always has been been, and always will be dysfunctional lackeys.

Anonymous said...

The last dozen comments were from bruce writing as 'bruce' and then bruce answering 'bruce' writing as 'anon'.

I think bruce is an idiot, and needs a new hobby. Go away, back to bruce-land.

bruce said...

Re: I think bruce is an idiot, and needs a new hobby. Go away, back to bruce-land.

I must be stepping on some toes.

FYI-just picked up the map of the three parcels a little while ago. It's the two LS parcels plus about 605 acres to finish out the first phase of JR. I'll scan it when I get a chance.

I also have the map of the Redev District, which takes in the Lowes-GI Joes area plus JR plus some space north of Lowes. I'll scan it and pot it when I get a chance.

Anyone else going to the CC meeting tomorrow night?

bruce said...

pot it=put it up

bruce said...

Hey Anonymouse, this is for you:"Disturbing Wisconsin Arrest For [Anonymouse]Blogging"

"MADISON, Wisconsin (AP) -- Bloggers and free speech advocates are calling on prosecutors not to file charges against a teacher arrested for allegedly posting an anonymous comment online praising the Columbine shooters.
...
Police Capt. Toby Netko defended the arrest. He said the teacher who complained was disturbed by the reference to "one shot at a time" and other educators agreed it was a threat."

Wierd story, but remember that every time you comment here Google logs your IP. And associates your comment with all your Google searches. And your emails if you use GMail. And your local computer files if you use Google Desktop. Etc.

BEWARE, ANONYMOUSE!

FYI-Article from original blog commented in here.

bruce said...

CNN article: "Teacher Arrested For Pro-Columbine Blog Post"

bruce said...

Attn all cunts: I got the annexation map up. Look in the blog I just linked to juniper-ridge.info, http://www.juniper-ridge-info.blogspot.com

I'll continue to post daily or more info in the blog, and then migrate into the Wiki. As soon as I get my Ajax timeline slider working, anyway.

I just noticed something about budget adjustments in tonights CC meeting, so I'll take a look at that when I get a chance.

Anonymous said...

Bruce,

Come over to the dark side. You have done well in instilling fear and doubt in this group.

***

Prosecutor will not charge teacher for Columbine blog posting

Associated Press - December 5, 2007 4:35 PM ET

MADISON, Wis. (AP) - A prosecutor says he won't file charges against a teacher who posted an anonymous comment online sarcastically praising the Columbine shooters.

Washington County District Attorney Todd Martens says he believes the comment left by James Buss was disgusting but is protected under the First Amendment.

bruce said...

Re: Prosecutor will not charge teacher for Columbine blog posting

Sanity prevails :)

Anonymous said...

The last three charts shows that Sisters and Sunriver RULES, and Bend/Redmond DROOLS.

Sisters and Sunriver are great investments in real estate, while RedmondBend are sucking the exhast from the SistersSunriver machine.

In bad times, there is always a flight to quality. Sisters and Sunriver represent quality (pretty little towns/villages, great schools, nice people).

Bendmond represents inferior quality, tacky houses, smelly ponds, ugly people, and worse than all of the above, HBM.

Anonymous said...

Cooler head's have prevailed, never make fun of stupidity, it could wind you up in a night at the Deschutes County Jail. I say if this site offends you, then stay away, but please don't tell the sheriff that we're advocating that people mutilate their genitals with bread sticks.


Prosecutor will not charge blogger for 'breadstick rape' blog posting

Bend Bulletin - December 5, 2007 4:35 PM ET

Bend, Oregon. (AP) - A prosecutor says he won't file charges against a journalist who posted an anonymous comment online sarcastically praising a victim of self induced Toxic Shock Syndrome.

Bend bloggers had been critical of a medical emergency where a towns person had lodged a 'breadstick' in their vagina.

Bill Clinton said...

"...had lodged a 'breadstick' in their vagina."
----------

You dolt!! It was a cuban cigar!

And for the last time: "I did not have sexual relations with that woman!"

Bend Economy Man said...

City Building and Planning Departments Are Finally Laying People Off

A bad thing for these employees, a good thing for taxpayers. The Building and Planning Departments are supposed to be self-funding, and, as the interim city manager says, "our revenues in our Community Development and Public Works departments have decreased enormously over the past year."

bruce said...

Re: City Layoff's

10 let go as off Mar. 31, 35 jobs "affected".

Sad thing was the Council passed a further $5M funding resolution, with such a long description that they kind of laughed after hearing it, but in reality most of it was for the JR Cooley Road realighment. Passed it without any comment or questions. Period.5-0.

This happened just a few minutes before Eric Knight let them know the City had such shortfall in expected revenues that these "adjustments" were going to occur.

Sad.

I'll put a report up from my notes, at juniper-ridge-info.blogspot.com, in the morn.

So, as far as I can tell, we are at $12M and counting for a driveway for 350 jobs transferred from Prineville to here. Piss poor execution on that dream called Juniper Ridge.

Also, I had a run in with the City's attorney about the validity of bloggers vis-a-vis being "real media". I am sure this will be revisited in the near future.

bruce said...

Eric King, not Eric Knight...

Bend Economy Man said...

.

"Northwest national forests sold more firewood in fiscal 2007 than in recent years: 25 percent more than two years earlier. Demand was so high, the front desk at the Deschutes National Forest in Central Oregon ran short of firewood permits, said Paul Brna, who manages wood sales for the Deschutes and Ochoco national forests. 'There's just been a bigger interest this year.'"

We had a debate on my blog, Paul's blog and elsewhere whether it's really possible that large numbers of Central Oregonians could or would abandon their sophisticated, leisure-oriented lifestyles and go back to the traditional ways of survival in Central Oregon: fishin' and huntin' (for food as much as recreation), woodcuttin', hand-me-down clothes, babysitting co-ops, etc.

BENDBUST said...

We had a debate on my blog, Paul's blog and elsewhere whether it's really possible that large numbers of Central Oregonians

*

If you want to stay in Central Oregon, this is what you MUST do, otherwise they'll move on.

Chipmunk stew, firewood, homebrew, ... two jobs @ $7/hr,... The good old Bend is quickly returning.

Anonymous said...

Sad thing was the Council passed a further $5M funding resolution, with such a long description that they kind of laughed after hearing it, but in reality most of it was for the JR Cooley Road realighment. Passed it without any comment or questions. Period.5-0.

***

This must looked at carefully, they don't have the money, and the plan ALL along was to get a BOND for this, but they're expensive right now, and BEND is a sub-prime city.

It would be interesting to find out what they're going to have to pay to borrow this.

Anonymous said...

The Building and Planning Departments are supposed to be self-funding, and, as the interim city manager says, "our revenues in our Community Development and Public Works departments have decreased enormously over the past year."

***

I think we knew this was coming six months ago, its just that now they're finally doing it, because nobody anymore says "Its coming Back".

bruce said...

More jobs leaving Bend?

BULL: AT&T Sets Its Sights On Bend's Edge Wireless

"Edge Wireless has 196 employees in Bend and 370 companywide, according to Donnie Castleman, president and COO. In 2005, it was named the best large business to work for in Oregon in a survey by Oregon Business magazine.
...
Central Oregonians, however, are still out of luck when it comes to signing up for service for an iPhone. Edge Wireless does not provide wireless services in the region. Bend is home only to its headquarters.
...
Castelman said the deal should benefit Edge Wireless custoemrs and he hopes it won't adversely affect the company's employees."

So who's taking bets on AT&T keeping an administrative HQ open in Bend?

bruce said...

Sheer idiocy.

Robin Freeman, president and CEO of Community First Bank, doesn't believe that freezing subprime mortgage rates will have much of an effect in Central Oregon. "We don't have the critical mass of borrowers that is really coming in and needing to buy a home and therefore kind of stretching to get into the more expensive homes here."

Uh, Robin, do you mean the following numbers mean Deschutes County mortgage holders are not under pressure?:
Scheduled
Name Pop. Auctions
Deschutes 152,615 46
Jackson 198,615 52
Clackamas 367,040 43
Multnomah 701,545 96

Sources:
bluebook.state.or.us
recontrust.com

bruce said...

Re: City layoffs, budget shortfalls

The BULL seems to be having a problem getting actual numbers.
So let's help them out and look at the city budget reports. What we can find here?:http://www.ci.bend.or.us/city_hall/meeting_minutes/docs/Detail_City_Financials_oct_2007.pdf

Paging through, checking out other things besides just the Planning Dept. revenue, we see a few large YTD budget revenue and resource shortfalls:
P. 2 Trans SDC Fund
Budget $6,720,500
Actual $1,420,500

P. 5 Water SDC Fund
Budget $4,736,300
Actual $4,270,862

P. 7 Planning Fund
Budget $1,477,967
Actual $838,913

P. 10 Affordable Housing Fund
Budget $599,667
Actual $363,063

P. 19 LID Construction Fund
Budget $66,667
Actual ($3,073)

P. 21 BURA JR Construction Fund
Budget $35,667
Actual ($29,435)

P. 23 Trans Construction Fund
Budget $1,252,605
Actual $318,216

P. 31 Revenue Totals By Dept.
Good
Tourism Fund +30% +$114,000
Stormwater Fund +38% +$215K
Downtown Parking Fund +64% +$216K

Bad
SDC Revenue -10% -$465K
Building Fund -12% -$235K

Ugly
Planning Fund -43% -$639K
Afforable Housing Fund -39% -$237K
Trans Constr Fund -25% -$934K
Intra-Gov Srvcs -23% -$3.32 Million

Overall Revs -11% -$10.5 Million

P. 32 Total Expenditures by Dept.
Overall Expenses
Budget $63,406,202
Actual $53,418,300
Cuts-Affordable Housing, cut 90%, Accessibility Constructon, cut 71%
Inta-Gov Srvcs, cut 40%, $6.2M

Other Requirements
Budget $8,814,960
Actual $6,651,025
Cuts-Future Construction/Facilities and Future Major Maintenance Reserves

Change in Working Capital
Budget -$14.6M
Actual -9.9M

Net Avlble Working Capital
Budget $24.1M
Actual $25.7M

So things aren't dire, yet. But we can keep spending $10 to $15 million a year more than we take in, that's for sure.

Also, these numbers don't take into account the additional $5 million of debt the Council authorised last night.

bruce said...

FYI Just posted a City Council meeting report at http://juniper-ridge-info.blogspot.com/

Anonymous said...

Chipmunk stew, firewood, homebrew, ... two jobs @ $7/hr,... The good old Bend is quickly returning.

This is your greatest fantasy hope it seems. It must really bother you that some people here have their homes paid off and lots of cash in the bank.

Bend Economy Man said...

It must really bother you that some people here have their homes paid off and lots of cash in the bank.

Well obviously we don't expect to see anyone's bank statement, but if someone's house is paid off it's a matter of public record (in Deschutes it's even Internet-accessible information).

Got an address of anyone with a paid-off house in Bend?

Anonymous said...

Got an address of anyone with a paid-off house in Bend?

*

Most of the people on my street paid $12k, back in the early 1970's for their homes, and most have paid them off, and certainly didn't do a HELOC.

In my humble opinion, its the newbies that are fucked.

Anonymous said...

Chipmunk stew, firewood, ...
...
It must really bother you that some people here have their homes paid off and lots of cash in the bank.
*

This is what is fun about this group, everyday someone says funny shit, as duncan calls it 'blogger fodder'. Ok, I'll respond.

Those of us that have paid off homes, bought them back in the 'day' for around $12k. They're paid for, they have wood-burning fire-places, because that was the backup heat in the 'day'. We came to Bend originally to ride dirt-bikes, fish, hunt, ... LIVE.

Now in the last ten or more years, folks came to Bend to get rich quick, or some other fucking dumb-ass reason.

Us old-timers will survive no matter how bad it gets, because we can live next to nothing, and we know how to live on nothing, and our burn-rate is nothing.

Then there are all these new fuckers in Bend that burn through money in their HUGE MTG's, and their HUGE +3k-sqft, ... homes that cost a fortune to heat.

In my neighborhood ( westside, west of drake ) all the homes cost around $12k in the early 70's, and the cali's were buying them for $500k in 2005, most of my neighbor's didn't sell. There's quite a few news kids that came in the late 1990's. My guess is that all the Bend newbies 2002 and later were buying new homes from builders, ...

A recurring theme here is that old-timers know how to live off the land, and everything they have is paid for. No matter how bad it gets, we'll have plenty of food and heat. Life is good, the best of times are going to return, and all the calis that came in the last ten years are going to leave with the shirt on their back in their debt ridden SUV.

It's the BIG-screen TV crowd, and their BIG-SUV, that will be in a world of hurt.

Anonymous said...


In my humble opinion, its the newbies that are fucked.


Which newbies? The rich retirees from out of state? The small minority of people who bought in 2005-2006 and who actually occupy their homes but could not afford it?

Speculators, realtors, and people directly connected to housing will be hurt. Otherwise it's smooth sailing.

Anonymous said...

It must really bother you that some people here have their homes paid off and lots of cash in the bank.

*

Having your home paid for is no big deal, if you been here over twenty years, and got a fixed fifteen year loan, your done.

The whole point of the firewood and chipmunk thread, is YOU DON'T need a boat-load of cash to live simple. Remember folks its not how much you have, but how much you spend. Making money is easy, keeping it is hard. A good way to keep your money is to not have to spend it.

I'll say something else here regarding the 15-yr fixed issue, most of our Bend newbies got interest only ARM's, ... these folks are NEVER going to pay off their FUCKING $500k MTG's.

This is my whole point, the old-timers are generally just fine, its ALL these newbies that 'discovered Bend' in the last ten years that are terminally fucked.

No matter how much money you have its about your burn rate. I know lots of 'millionaires' up at Broken-Top, that bought five years ago, and were going to live on interest, and now their principal is near gone, and their shack ain't worth shit, even if you could find a buyer.

Anonymous said...

Which newbies? The rich retirees from out of state?

*

Anybody that came to Bend, and bought house, or EVEN took a fucking job here after 1998, is FUCKED.

It's all going back to 1998 level's, and thus if you didn't BUY before that, then fo everyone that came thereafter they're NEGATIVE. Which means they're FUCKED.

I get REAL tired of this 'RICH' thing, I know a lot of people in Bend, and MOST are not rich. These fucking calis that sold their shack for $800k, and came here and bought a shack for $400k ( thats now worth $160k ), their other $400k is GONE.

Sure there's a few NBA/NFL guys up a Broken-Top-Highlands, but these are all investments, their CPA told them to BUY.

It's MY humble opinion that everybody that came here POST 1998, will get FUCKED.

I remember a long time ago I said here everybody that bought post 2002 was subprime, and EVERYONE pissed and screamed, and you KNOW WHAT?? Two days ago the WSJ reported that almost ALL loans sold after 2002 were subprime, even to people with good credit.

YOUR ALL FUCKED. Just wait and see, and like always folks will see I'm correct.

Anonymous said...

FYI Just posted a City Council meeting report at http://juniper-ridge-info.blogspot.com/

*

Good job bruce,

Anonymous said...

What does it mean to be a newbie and fucked?

Even if you didn't buy a home here after 1998, and your a renter here your still fucked. The economy here is going to be in the toilet for the next 3-5 years. The jobs are going to be terrible, OK, lets say your a rich-renter, by that I mean you have over $1M cash, ... ( not really rich, but just a reference ).

It's highly suspicious someone would have been here during the past five years, with a wad of cash, and still be a renter. Very doubtful.

Let's take my street, lots of folks in their 50's retired, bought house in 1970's, its paid for, they get pension checks from utility company's, or sold a business. The key is to MINIMIZE burn-rate that means NO HOA's, the majority of our newbies bought into these fucking HOA's that can be any number. They're just burning too much money.

Let's say someone had lots of money, and moved to Bend in the last ten years, and has so much money, they don't care if RE goes south. Why in the hell would this person stay here? Its not going to be fun. Look at bruce's numbers above, this city is fucking bankrupt. The fun is over, very shortly 20% of Bend is going to get laid off, just from city/county jobs, that will effect everything.

Very few people can just bike, or xc ski around, fish/hunt, live cheap, ... Everything in the New Bend is about burning money Tetehrow plans on charging $300/game to play, that is what I mean by burn, people who live that life ... Its NOT sustainable.

Those of us who spend $50/week on non-essentials will be fine,

If you moved to Bend in the last ten years, and don't have a TON of money, then you had better to dump all your toys quick, and learn to hunt chip-munk, and fish, and hunt, ... You better hope you own your home free & clear.

Most of the Bend Rich in the last ten years has been HELOC cali feeder white-trash RICH. This shit going to implode so fucking quick. Just go to the pawn shops and ask to see the Rolex's, and count them day to day, thats the way to know Bend.

Anonymous said...

http://juniper-ridge-info.blogspot.com/

*

Bruce,

Remember to go to orblogs and bendblogs on homers tombstone, and promote your new blogsite to them, so it shows up on all or/bend blog listings.

Anonymous said...

Chipmunk stew, firewood, homebrew, ... two jobs @ $7/hr,... The good old Bend is quickly returning.

This is your greatest fantasy hope it seems.

**

Let's remember that these were the best of times. You golfers driving around in your SUV's if you can afford the gas, the peasants will know why they're fucked. I'll continue to bike in Bend, and walk around, not draw attention to myself.

I think conspicuous wealth in Bend, is going to be a very stupid thing to do in the next few years, the have-not's are going to multiply like shit.

Like Emma Goldman said long ago, "A man without bread, has the right to take bread from a rich man that does". All those gated-community's may make you safe while there, but eventually you have to come into town, I highly suggest an old F-100, and dress down in the coming years.

This is what I'm talking about, when the 'nouveau bend riche' have to hide their wealth, they'll move on rather quickly, especially after their HUMMER gets keyed a few times.

bruce said...

Re: Be sure to go to....

Done.

Saw the most amazing thing the other day in the Walmart lot--a huge RV pulling a Hummer as it's local transport.

Personally, I think that those that are dependent upon work in town are the most vulnerable. If most of your income comes from elsewhere, whether through telecommuting, business model, or other, local conditions simply don't affect you that much.

I've only been here for a little less than three years. I took one look at the RE situation and decided to wait. It looked a bit ridiculous seeing 800 sq ft 1920 bungalows going for $300,000 plus on the west side.

Bend does have a lot going for it when it comes to outdoor recreation and local entertainment and shopping. The tourists will continue to come. Unfortunately, 1) tourism jobs don't pay much and 2) companies that look at macro-economics and operate worldwide simply won't find Bend to be a good deal. And those that would like to come here because it's a nice place have issues with the City government and with the cost of housing.

PS I just watched Olbermann call Bush a "bald-faced liar". So true.

Unfortunately 3) is we have been spending hundreds of millions of dollars borrowed from the Chinese to finance a ridiculous war, which has also driven up energy costs and enriched BushCo's buds, and that is going to affect us just as much as the subprime crisis. Bush has set us up for a horrible fall.

Anyone have a good 30-06 or .270 cheap?

Anonymous said...

Got an address of anyone with a paid-off house in Bend?

20035 ALDERWOOD CIR BEND 97702

These addresses are easy to find on the Deschutes County website, look for Satisfaction of Mortgage documents in the Clerk's system and then cross-reference the name & address in DIAL.

Anonymous said...

Most of the Bend Rich in the last ten years has been HELOC cali feeder white-trash RICH. This shit going to implode so fucking quick. Just go to the pawn shops and ask to see the Rolex's, and count them day to day, thats the way to know Bend.

.....

Pleeeeeze I know two or three people in Bend that make over $7/hr, and they are not white trash.
Well one did hawk his wife's wedding ring, and the kid's college fund is gone, and the auto insurance has lapsed. But they're good people.

bruce said...

Category: really stupid headlines

"Gunman at Omaha mall had troubled history"

Ya think?

bruce said...

To whoever left a comment with a BULL article in my blog: it seems to be gone. I didn't realize the moderation of comments was on. It's now off, just like here.

I'm old and grizzly enough to deal, just like IHTBYB.

Sorry for whatever the F happened to it.

Anonymous said...

These addresses are easy to find on the Deschutes County website, look for Satisfaction of Mortgage documents in the Clerk's system and then cross-reference the name & address in DIAL.


No, the clerk section appears to need a password so this info is IMPOSSIBLE to access.

Anonymous said...

No, the clerk section appears to need a password so this info is IMPOSSIBLE to access.

*

Use my login credentials.

Username: bendbust
Password: imawhacko

See it's not IMPOSSIBLE.

Anonymous said...

°

Juniper Golf Club seeks to defer debt to Redmond
Organization will consider raising its membership dues and greens fees
By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin

REDMOND — The manager of the city-owned Juniper Golf Club will ask the Redmond City Council on Tuesday for more time to make several monthly payments on a $7 million debt used to build the course and is considering hiking player fees to improve finances.

Juniper Golf Club Inc. will request that the council defer about $33,000 of its $42,000 in monthly payments over the next three months, said Mark Crose, president of Juniper Golf Club’s board of directors.

Juniper Golf Club Inc. — which manages the 18-hole course, clubhouse, restaurant and pro shop for the city — has not found a way to offset the decline in revenues from fewer memberships and less course play during the slow winter months. Unexpected maintenance costs and a slower-than-expected October also forced the semi-public club to ask for a payment deferral, Crose said.

“We’re well aware of the seasonality of our business plan,” Crose said. “We thought it would work well this winter, but we had a nightmarish October. We got ahold of the city to work out a rescheduling of our debt.”

The golf club, ranked No. 6 earlier this year by Golf Digest magazine on the list of best new public courses under $75, will consider raising greens fees, which are currently $60 during the week and $65 on weekends for nonmembers, and membership dues, when it drafts its budget in early 2008, said Crose. He said member dues and rates would be decided in January.

Membership rates are $170 per person or $190 per family per month, plus a $550 initiation fee.

According to a memo to the City Council, the club also is taking other steps to improve its finances:

• Afternoon discounts will be changed to increase revenue.

• A new membership promotion campaign will be introduced.

• Winter hours at The View, the Juniper Golf Club’s restaurant, will be reduced.

The golf club will present its plan to the council in a workshop Tuesday morning, Crose said. The 6:45 a.m. workshop will be at the Redmond City Council chambers, located at the Redmond Police Station, 777 S.W. Deschutes Ave.

This will be the second consecutive fiscal year the course, which opened in July 2005, has asked to defer monthly payments to the city. The fiscal year begins July 1. The city uses the money to make $225,000 semiannual bond payments on the course in June and December, Crose said.

After its deferral last fiscal year — in January, February and March 2007 — the golf club made its full semiannual payment of $225,000 in June, said Chris Earnest, city finance director.

The city keeps a reserve fund equal to one semiannual payment in case of default, Earnest said.

“We’re confident that working with the golf course on a short-term basis that we won’t have to touch the reserve fund,” Earnest said. “The bigger issue is dealing with this so that in the long-term we don’t have to do it again,” he said of payment deferrals to the city.

Since moving from its previous location northwest of Redmond Airport, the course has been well-run but has had a difficult time keeping members year-round, said Ron Bryant, president of the Redmond Public Building Corp., a wholly owned subsidiary of the city of Redmond, which owns the club and operates it through Juniper Golf Club Inc.

Some members at the old club dropped their memberships when rates and public use increased at the new course, Bryant said.

“It’s not like the old Juniper Golf Course, where you could just walk onto the course and play,” he said. “Now, you have to call ahead and plan tee times. Members don’t like that. Also, it’s a difficult course to play.”

Anonymous said...

I'm making money (a small amount) on a house I bought in 2005 and am renting. Then again, I did put 100K down so according to this blog I must be the only one in town who put money down. It's obviously not a great investment, but I plan to move back and occupy the house in a couple years and meanwhile it costs me nothing.

Anonymous said...

Then again, I did put 100K down so according to this blog I must be the only one in town who put money down.

*

First of all in this hypothetical BULLSHIT, you didn't say what you paid, given it was 2005, and there were no fucking deals, you PAID peak, which was probably $400/sq-ft. Let's says you bought your cracker-shack for $500k, and borrowed $400k, you must likely are still in the first few years of your 5/1 ARM, so yes you rent is covering your payment.

You will be FUCKED when you ARM resets, better move back in quick, so you live there, and can have the feds lock your ARM.

BENDBUST said...

REDMOND — The manager of the city-owned Juniper Golf Club will ask the Redmond City Council on Tuesday for more time to make several monthly payments on a $7 million debt used to build the course and is considering hiking player fees to improve finances.

**

Too MANY golf-course, like today TETHEROW CUNTS say they have closed 24+ lots I SAY BULLSHIT.

How many fucking ten+ million dollar city golf courses did the city of Bend invest in??

I say sell this bitch in Redmond QUICK, stop the bleed, SELL IT ASAP.

In 1-2 fucking years a golf-course is GOING TO BE WORTH NOTHING.

Anonymous said...

30 yr mortgage at 5.75%. I actually locked in the house price in 2004 and house was finished being built in 2005 so it was considerably off peak prices. About $135 per sqft.

Bend in the 60s said...

It's all going back to 1998 level's...

Okay BB2 smarties, tell me this: how come the houses in Bend are still nearly the same prices they were when I started looking 6 months ago. When is this hypothetical price drop going to come?

By the way, I lived in Bend in the 60s ... you guys are talking about the 70s. Does that make me more of a Bendite than you?

Also what happens to a town goes bankrupt? Do the taxes go sky high? How will the old-timers pay high taxes and keep their houses? Won't this impact your burn rate?

Hmmmm ... just wondering.

Also, by the by, my mom put me in one those babysitting coops in Bend someone mentioned ... they were like something out of Dickens. Horrible.

bruce said...

FYI-Put up a post analyzing what LS is actually paying with regards to the SDC issue at http://www.juniper-ridge-info.blogspot.com

Remember anonymouse, comments are not moderated ;)

Anonymous said...

HOMER,

YOUR BITCH BUFFETT is going NOW, and he's going to be doing BIG-TIME, just like your PAL @ AIG, the favorite lender to the city of bend.

[ The whole point is that ALL of Buffet's company's are holding company's, e.g. flim-flam overly leveraged shit, that's going to fall so fucking BIG! ]

***

Report for December 7th, 2007

Fellow Buffett Watchers,

Warren Buffett will be asked to testify in a case against five former senior executives who are being charged with fraud, conspiracy and lying to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), in regard to manipulating American International Group (AIG) financial statements.

Four of the five executives indicted in 2006 were from General Reinsurance Corporation, which is owned by Berkshire Hathaway. The execs in question were allegedly involved with the manipulation of over $500 million worth of complex reinsurance deals. Buffett has stated that he had no idea that the deals were improper. The trial is scheduled to begin January 7, 2008 in Hartford, Connecticut.

Anonymous said...

Okay BB2 smarties, tell me this: how come the houses in Bend are still nearly the same prices they were when I started looking 6 months ago. When is this hypothetical price drop going to come?

*

Your obviously a fucking REALTOR.

Anybody in this town that has enough equity, e.g. 50%, would gladly take 1/2 of the 2005 HIGH, the reason is that FEW ASK's in Bend are DOWN, is that most dumb fucking parasites bought with NOTHING DOWN, and they CANNOT go DOWN.

End of fucking Story.

90% of any post 2000 purchase in Bend, is a fucking Foreclosure, just a-waiting.

Anonymous said...

I actually locked in the house price in 2004 and house was finished being built in 2005 so it was considerably off peak prices.
30 yr mortgage at 5.75%
***

Ahhh shit, our hypothetical here is talking about east siberian desert fucking RE out in the fucking tracts of fucking HELL.

The hypothetical Realtor will not tell us what he paid, but given its siberia, lets say it was 3500 sqft that $472k, with $100k down, thats $372k loan, at 5.75% 30yr, that $1800/mo, and this FUCKING CUNT is telling us that he has a renter that is pencil's this? Ya, the only fucking renter that will pay over $1k/mo is a fucking meth-lab

Anonymous said...

Okay BB2 smarties, tell me this: how come the houses in Bend are still nearly the same prices they were when I started looking 6 months ago. When is this hypothetical price drop going to come?

*

Prices are dropping on some houses, but not across the board. The range of asking prices within a neighborhood can be big, so if you have a neighborhood you like look for deals from motivated sellers. Many of the sellers aren't all that motivated though.

Anonymous said...

Ahhh shit, our hypothetical here is talking about east siberian desert fucking RE out in the fucking tracts of fucking HELL.

*

Dude, lots of people were building houses for $135 per sqft back in 2004, including on the westside.

Anonymous said...

Dude, lots of people were building houses for $135 per sqft back in 2004, including on the westside.

House is less than 2000 sq ft and as I said I'm making money renting it although not much. I could have bought even cheaper, but the quality wasn't as good. I think you are wrong, most people who bought in the last several years will be fine. Some speculators will get burned but that is why its called "speculating".

Anonymous said...

$135 per sqft back in 2004, including on the westside.

House is less than 2000 sq ft

*

The plot thickens, OUR LYING CUNT now says that bought a home in Bend in 2004, no that was 2005, no it was 2004, and they bought it for less than $260k, and it was NEW, it must have been a FUCKING CONDO, on the fucking FAR-EAST side.

Homer, where in the HELL do you find these people???

bruce said...

FYI--just rescanned the LS-JR agreement, so it is totally readable now. Sorry for my ineptness in the original scan. It's on juniper-ridge.info New scanner, etc.

And, no, I don't care what your IP address is.

Anonymous said...

Dude, lots of people were building houses for $135 per sqft back in 2004, including on the westside


*

That might have been the price of the house, but that didn't include the lot.

If it was WEST-SIDE, it was Deschutes River Woods!

Anonymous said...

. Many of the sellers aren't all that motivated though.

*

There fucking motivated, but they don't own the fucking house. So how low can they go with a 100% loan?? They can't go down, and that speaks for most of Bend.

It's foreclosure time, over the next five years.

I really think that those that could dump, e.g. they bought pre-1986, they went down -40% from the 2005 high and they sold winter of 2006/2007.

Those still sitting today, are fucked, and they couldn't go down, because they bought post 2000.

Anonymous said...

Our Smart fucker, now admits, .. in hypothetical fucking BB2 bullshit at its best ...

$100k down, 5.75%
$260k condo, eastside,

We're supposed to believe he paid $100k down on a $260k purchase, which means he owes $160K, which means his payments are about $1000/mo, you add insurance and taxes, and this bitch is losing money.

What's the point of tying up $100k? You could be getting 12% from any good Corp Bond, fund, and thats $12k/yr, more than your getting for rent, and beware, your renter will fuck you, OH YA, your in the long haul and your $260k CONDO is going to be worth a fucking COOL $1MIL in a few years, ya about fifty years.

This is the stupidest fucking shit in awhile, so stupid it must be made up by homer, who loves to make this shit up, and play dumb, its troll food for him.

Anonymous said...

Dude, lots of people were building houses for $135 per sqft back in 2004, including on the westside.

House is less than 2000 sq ft and as I said I'm making money renting it although not much.

***

New house in 2005 ( or 2004 ) bitch can't make up her mind. It is said to be $260k, and under 2k-sqft, and in Bend that CAN ONLY MEAN CONDO. Bend didn't build cracker-shacks that small as single-family. This bitch is a CONDO WHORE!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

I'm making money (a small amount) on a house I bought in 2005 and am renting.

***

I forgot to mention, that my children are selling themselves as prostitutes when my renter travels, and that is how I keep a positive cash flow.

I still cannot remember if it was 2004 or 2005, but I know right now its 2008. Real Estate is coming back, so I'll be back in California a rich woman.

Anonymous said...

Bruce,

This one is for you, remember the $6M man?? Well this is the $265k kid. I suspect that kool-aid that Buffett serves at his sermons was also drank by kids.

You mentioned the other day it was ironic press reported the kid had a problem, this kid was a government 'investment' of the highest order. Right out of Manchurian Candidate.

(*)

$265,000 spent on treating mall killer
ANNA JO BRATTON AND NATE JENKINS IN OMAHA, NEBRASKA

STATE authorities spent $265,000 (£131,000) attempting to treat Robert Hawkins, the teenage gunman who killed eight people in a shooting rampage at a department store in Nebraska on Wednesday.

Hawkins spent four years in treatment centres, care homes and foster care after threatening to kill his stepmother in 2002.

Anonymous said...

hey bought it for less than $260k, and it was NEW, it must have been a FUCKING CONDO, on the fucking FAR-EAST side.

What's amazing is how much of a complete and utter dumbfuck you are. Are you really this stupid, or is it an act? Wrong again, on all counts!

Bend in the 60s said...

Your obviously a fucking REALTOR...


NOPE! Just someone waiting for the prices to drop!

Anonymous said...

What's amazing is how much of a complete and utter dumbfuck you are. Are you really this stupid, or is it an act? Wrong again, on all counts!

*

Anybody that BOUGHT a fucking house in Bend, after 1998 is fucked.

Only time will tell, how fucked, but they are fucked.

It's been said too many times, but I'll say it again. Bend separates cali-white trash from its money quicker than you can say 'bend cougar'.

Optimist said...

Bend is a marvelous place to invest. I read all of this, and up until now I withheld my opinion.

I'm an active Bend investor, and have bought dozens of homes in Bend during 2005-2006. I paid over $100k down for each home. I paid less than $150/sqft. I always borrow at 5.5% for 15 years. My units are 100% occupied with positive cash flows.

The negativity I read here leads me to believe that you are all renters, and have no idea of how profitable it is to own real estate in Bend. The values are not going to go down, and people can only make money, and lots of money by buying Bend Real Estate.

There has never been a better time to buy a home in Bend.

Anonymous said...

Heidi Berkman of Tetherow has been working hard, her following Press Release is all over the place. Now they're NOT saying 'recorded' they're saying closed! Twenty lot's at $600k! It would be interesting for the ambitious to use DIAL to determine, if they were recorded? Could be speculators, as almost all the lost at Highlands@Broken-Top sold first years, for $500k then went up to $2M, then fell back to less than $1M, and still most not developed. Tetherow could be the same thing, an early 'buyer' can hope that the premium lots become rare, and thus go up? Perhaps? What's more interesting is did they really record? The word 'close' no longer has any meaning, the ONLY word that has meaning is 'RECORD', and that is when the DEED is recorded, until then the transaction has not taken place. For instance did the closers pay a down? Or 100%? We know from the plaza that early marketing always wants to create a shortage limitation scarcity of resources. Whats also interesting is that most lots are selling to 'locals', as opposed to world-class traveling rich golfers! With DIAL we could determine if Bauhofer simply paid $5k and reserved ten lots for himself, ...


Home Sales News is Not All Bad; Oregon Development Closes on $12 Million in Homesite Sales in One Month

Tetherow's Success Defies Real Estate Trends
BEND, Ore.--(Business Wire)--If you think all of the news coming out of the housing industry is
doom and gloom, think again. A new development near Bend, Ore., closed
on 19 homesites in one month for a value close to $12 million or about
$631,000 per lot.

Internationally famous golf course architect David McLay Kidd and
his wife Jill recently closed on the first homesite at Tetherow, a new
700-acre golf resort community near Bend in central Oregon. They were
joined by 18 more buyers in the last month. The 19 lots have a
combined value of close to $12 million.

More than 80 Tetherow homesites have already been reserved, with
an estimated value of $42 million. Tetherow's success vividly
illustrates the continued strength of this real estate market in the
midst of a sluggish national economy.

Bend was the country's hottest market in 2006, with price gains of
more than 30 percent. This year's 7.2 percent increase in prices for
residential lots is the lowest in years, attracting others like Kidd
who want to own a piece of Oregon's most popular vacation spot.

Kidd's designs for Bandon Dunes and the Castle Course at St.
Andrew earned him Golf World magazine's "hottest architect in golf"
title, and the private resort course he designed for Tetherow will
open in June. In April he moved his international design company and
family to Bend. When fully developed, Tetherow will include a golf
academy and clubhouse, hotel, spa and wellness center, recreation
center, conference center and 589 homes and townhomes.

For more information on Tetherow, visit www.tetherow.com or call
Brand Director Femke van Velzen, 541-390-2259, femke@tetherow.com. For
information on homesites, call Joe Kearney, director of sales,
866-234-4848 or 541-318-1234, jkearney@tetherow.com. Media calls: Olga
Haley, 971-244-0661 or olga@leoketel.com.

For Tetherow
Olga Haley, 971-244-0661 or 503-860-0848
olga@leoketel.com
or
Carolyn Patten, 971-244-0682 or 503-819-7094
carolyn@leoketel.com

Copyright Business Wire 2007

Anonymous said...

Tetherow's Success Defies Real Estate Trends
BEND, Ore.--(Business Wire)--If you think all of the news coming out of the housing industry is
doom and gloom, think again.

*

Think again, buy a lot in Tetherow, and make 30%/yr forever, ... Where have we heard this before. ...

RE Depression in Bend? Not at Tetherow, exempt from the laws of supply and demand.

Anonymous said...

ignorant reactionary right wingers, properly marginalized back in the sixties, have finally managed to put the last nail in their coffin by war-mongering the bankruptcy of the US.

*

I don't think you can really give them credit, this is the same crowd that Malcolm-X, said couldn't be given credit for conspiracy.

Let's just say that 'republicans' have long wanted to 'bankrupt' the USA to do away with entitlement's, if you look closely what dubya has done is squander the most money in history, an incurred a war debt that is astronomical. The justification for all of course is our "Reichstag's Fire", aka 911-WTC.

The most relevant to Bend, is that DUBYA drops interest rates to almost zero, and real-estate mortgages are handed out to anybody with a breath, for nothing down. The city of Bend spends millions a year on national marketing of Bend as a Real-Estate paradise, and exempts builders from paying actual cost of SDC. Bend becomes the #1 overpriced Real Estate ( CNN MONEY 2005/2006 ) in the USA! Every part of Bend is part of team DUBYA which is debt, and the total destruction of the middle-class, the imprisonment of the lower-class, and the building of gated community's for the upper-class.

I can remember 20+ years ago in Salem Politics, when issue would come up with solving problems, the common republican theme was always, only a total bankruptcy of the USA could create a clean-slate, which then would allow a new-world-order, that had no entitlements. What is always perplexing is that entitlements for large corporations are ok, but not for people?

Bend is very much related to 911, thus its good that it is being discussed. Certainly the Bend Real Estate boom would never have happened if not for 911. EDCO and City-Hall, and VCB/DVA jumped at the chance to market Bend, as the "#1 tourist resort in the West", and they still do. Now the money is gone, and the people who control Bend, still think they can spend taxpayer money to market Bend out of its Real-Estate glut.

It's been said to think global, act local. Certainly the first step to world problems, is to fix Bend problems. The lying, denial, and deceit that is ever present in 911, is every bit as much prevalent in Bend. Our Bulletin & Source are dependent upon advertising revenue of a happy military-industrial-complex. Nobody speaks up, because everyone is on the payroll.

The Republicans always wanted to bankrupt the US, in order to kill FDR's programs. They have succeeded in their first goal, but its highly unlikely that they know where they're going. They want power, they want change, but most of all they want everything for themselves.

Lastly, when I say Republicans, let's all remember there is NO difference between republicans & democrats in Bend; here they're all kleptocrats, just common criminals stealing from one another.

Is there a solution? First and foremost is a larger participation in an open government. In Bend everything has become secret, and the populace docile, feeling so long as their real-estate investment is positive that city-hall can operate in secret. Nobody in Bend participates in Government, other than real estate developers, thus we get the Government we deserve. It's going to take a long, long time to fix Bend.

Anonymous said...

Y'all be needin a billboard about now?

Billboard appears on April 16, 1971, near Sea-Tac, reading: Will the Last Person Leaving SEATTLE -- Turn Out the Lights.
HistoryLink.org Essay 1287
Printer-Friendly Format

On April 16, 1971, real estate agents Bob McDonald and Jim Youngren put the words, "Will the last person leaving SEATTLE -- Turn out the lights" on a billboard at S. 167th St. and Pacific Highway S. near Sea-Tac airport. The two realtors, who work for Henry Broderick, Inc., put up the billboard as a humorous response to pessimism generated by the national aerospace industry's nosedive, known locally as the Boeing Bust.
A Sign of the Times

The recession was caused as The Boeing Company, the region's largest employer, went from a peak of 100,800 employees in 1967 to a low of 38,690 in April 1971. McDonald said their out-of-town clients, "were amazed that Seattle wasn’t a ghost town with weeds growing in the streets. We wanted to counteract that attitude with a little humor" (Duncan). They chose a billboard site that they inevitably passed after picking up their clients at the airport. The men rented the billboard for $160.

The Boeing recovery began slowly: by October 1971 the firm employed 53,300 workers.

twisted sistah said...

Sisters RULES and BendRedmond (now Bendmond) DROOLS. Tetherow SUCKS.

Sisters makes the NYT.

http://travel.nytimes.com/2007/12/07/travel/escapes/07mark.html

DOWNTOWN Sisters, Ore., with its 1880s-style buildings, resembles the Old West.

"The top seven sales this year to date for houses on under an acre were from about $1 million to $1.75 million; the bottom, $250,000 to $300,000."
---------

These houses are for all those faux ranchers (All hat, no cattle).

"For houses on 1 to 80 acres, the top eight sales were from $1 million to $2.8 million; the bottom eight were $300,000 to $500,000."
--------------

This is were the BossHogs live. Check out the $2.8M spread on 33 acres. 5,000 sqft of pure haute ranchero alta vista, baby!

Pretty soon Arnold himself will be selling his Sun Valley spread and vacationing in Sisters, Or and skiing at Mt Bachelor.

You Go, Girl! The little Sister ROCKS!

Anonymous said...

You Go, Girl! The little Sister ROCKS!

&

The little sister has been passed around and fucked by every jock in Bend.

The little sister has every disease imaginable.

The little sister is toxic, radioactive, & ground zero in the National Real Estate Meltdown.