Monday, December 17, 2007

Bend's Magic Number: 70

As I read about the demise of the Bend Mega-Bubble, I'm starting to notice the same number pop up over and over again, or at least damn close.

70

First, I saw a link posted by Timmy Tee over on Bend Bee Bee, House Prices in America by Median Price and Valuation. Besides having a pretty kick-butt interactive chart of overpriced areas all over the country, you can also find killer spreadsheet & PDF report. If you want long-term, good data on home prices in Bend, you cannot beat this National City page. Here's a really long-term chart of Bend medians:

Bend quarterly median home prices from Q1 - 1986 thru Q3 - 2007

Anyway, you can see that despite the fact that Bend is NO LONGER The Top Appreciating Housing Market in the US, we are STILL The Most Overpriced Housing Market by 70%. For those interested in the National City projection of "Fair Value", that 70% overvaluation figure is based on a $320,100 median(?) home price in Q3 of this year, which yields a Fair Price of $188,294.

That's a 50% haircut from the top of $380K in Sept 2006.

Moving on, I did my Google spreadsheet thing with Doug Farmers data this month, as usual. It can be characterized as pretty much The End Of The Real Estate Brokerage Business (and many other RE businesses) As We Know It. Here it is in graph form:
Monthly Dollar Volume Sold - All residential subtypes, Bend (Doug Farmer)

After the usual Winter slowdown in 2005-2006, volume went to a mega-spike high of $133,155, 206. That is a mind-boggling $491,218 AVG price, on 267 units sold. In November of this year we did 102 residential properties sold, at a still incredible $430,599. That's $43.9MM, knocking on a 70% reduction in sold dollar volume.

In a related stat, you can see from Doug's data that 303 units sold in Nov 2005, the earliest data point we have.
Residential Units SOLD in Bend

Again, we are sitting at 102 today, another near 70% decline.

Then there was the much ballyhooed "auction" by Brooks of their last 3 RiverWild condos, graciously highlighted As Usual in the Bulletin, How builders plan to face housing slide. We quickly find from the piece that it Never Really Was An Auction -- not surprising to any Bend resident with one wit of sentience, nothing IS EVER as it seems in this place.

Anyway, from the article we can see that when you run a Fake Auction, you will have Bad Results:

Frustrated by a season of sluggish sales, Brooks Resources Corp. put the last three unsold townhomes in its prime RiverWild subdivision at Mt. Bachelor Village up for auction Nov. 2.

It was a bit of a bust. Only one of the three sold, and at the minimum bid — more than $200,000 below list price.

The other two attracted not a single offer.

That, for Central Oregon’s largest land developer, was a sign of the times.

Sales in all of Brooks’ most active developments — IronHorse in Prineville, Yarrow in Madras and NorthWest Crossing in Bend — have come in well below projections this year, Brooks CEO Mike Hollern noted Wednesday.

Only 1 of the 3 "auctioned" units sold, or about a 70% FAILURE RATE.

In the same piece we heard about the Buena Vista "auction" that took place yesterday. This sham was even more dubious than Brooks farce auction, so we can expect the results to not even approach a 70% failure rate. The only people that would possibly buy Buena Vista shithole whacky shacks are out-of-state idiots who are totally ignorant of the market & probably haven't even laid eyes on these crappers.

I have. These are the "Yugo's" of Bend homes: Cheap, and for Good Reason. I would not buy these shitholes At Any Price. Not even as rentals. These BV dung heaps are the quintessence of Gold Rush mentality built crap. From the same Bulletin piece:

Buena Vista Custom Homes, a Lake Oswego-based company that billed itself as one of the nation’s fastest-growing builders when it moved into the Bend market in early 2006, announced Thursday that it will put all 200 of its unsold homes in Oregon up for auction next month, including 29 in Forum Meadows, its brand-new east-Bend subdivision.

“We were overaggressive and too slow to react to the changes in the market, and that has created an oversupply of finished homes,” Buena Vista President Roger Pollock said in a company press release. “Buyers are going to get amazing deals, but we simply have to reduce our inventory.”

Yes, they will be "Amazing Deals" all right. Amazingly CRAPPY. If you actually bought one of these Shitters, then I got a bridge to sell you.

Then there's the Home Builders. We can see from this 3 year chart, they have been decimated:

Sitting right at 70% DOWN. I actually think these stocks have been pounded so hard that they are getting pretty attractive on a valuation basis. A hell of a lot of Bad News has been baked into this industry. Coincidentally, -75% is about where the NASDAQ bottomed, post bubble.

Ahhhh yes. Now we come back to Becky & The Massively Imploding White Elephant -- The Plaza. She stated that she had SOLD 14 of these condo Crappers, which come with an optional rocket-propelled casket/bed that fires deceased owners straight into the Deschutes River when there is no longer a heat-signature. Plus, the caskets come with Auto-Listing Technology, so when the underside of the casket gets wet, the condo unit is automatically listed on MLS. Timmy said that the toilets come with high-pressure bidets using turbines co-developed with The Bellagio & NASA engineers that not only cleans those hard to reach geezer-flaps, but stands the old bastard up after they blow a crap.

That's real convenience.

Anyway, after much hand-wringing & gnashing of teeth, we actually come to find that Becky HAS NOT sold 14 of these masoleum's, but instead sold 70% FEWER, or only 4. It's arguable whether 2 of these 4 were really "Sales" in the proper definition, as they had the rotting scent of Flipper Bait when they went back on the market less than 45 days after Becky schlocked them off on some True Believer.

Finally, to round out our Lucky Number 70 Review, I saw this post on BendBB, by "bruce"

Post subject: $100,000 30% haircut leads to PENDING sale

There is a house about a block away, very similar to the one I'm renting for $850/mo, that was recently vacated after being on the market for many months. Almost directly across from another newer and larger house that was vacated last summer, and is on at least its second listing.

But today I saw something I haven't seen in quite awhile: "PENDING"

It seems these guys decided it had to be sold, so according to the new flyer I just grabbed it was marked down $100,000, to $229,900, and the seller also would pay up to $5000 in closing costs.


I think a lot of these Siberian Desert Tract Flipper Bait Buyers will need to realize that they need to mark their current price to 70% of where it is now to even get lookers. This equates to 43% overvalued. But this is short term. There WILL be buyers at Todays' Bargain Prices that will seem insane when they realize that todays market is NOT 43% too high, it is in fact 70% overvalued per National City.

So, as is my way, I will make a few predictions based on Lucky Number 70, with my prototypical 50% coin-flipping accuracy:

First, CACB will ultimately do a high-dive into the concrete for -70% from it's all-time top of $32.
5 year chart, Cascade Bancorp

This would put our beloved local bank down at post-mega-bubble lows towards $10. I said many times in the past that I thought CACB was worth in the low to mid teens... back when "CACB Shorter" manned-up & shorted this loser. It's easy to see from the above chart that after a 50+% beating, that $10 isn't that much of a stretch. $12-13 is probably fair value, but post Bubble implosions know no bounds to their ferocity on the downside, so CACB may even see single digits.

Prediction #2: The Real Psycho Ward projects; The Plaza, The Shire, Tuscany Pines, and Tuscany Shire Plaza Condos at Tuscany Pines, A Tuscan Themed Homeless Shelter (don't worry, If You Build It, They Will Come -- as proven by the Fakeroney "Borealis" macro-scam, that offered IGLOO's as "residences"), will get whacked for 70%. My Lord, they actually had takers too, on that Borealis Scam:

KOHD reports:

12/14/07 Bend

If you're making future plans to stay at the Borealis Resort near Mt. Bachelor, you're in for a surprise. It doesn't exist.

Tim Neville and a friend made up the resort to further the controversy surrounding the endless construction of new developments in Bend. They sent out a mass email with a description, website and phone numbers. Neville says the website was clearly meant as a joke and those who are upset haven't done their research.

"You see immediately that these things are igloos that all of our homes are igloos and they come in 7 to 11 foot diameter configurations," says Neville.

Within a few hours after sending the email, Neville received more than a hundred responses ranging from laughter to outrage. He says that was the point. Some out of state companies even offered to market the new project.


This exemplifies the current thinking in Bend: Lunatic fringe, half baked idiotic RIPOFF mega-scams are The ONLY THING WE GOT. This guy was OFFERING IGLOO's, for the love of Christ, and he had LEGITIMATE offers to MARKET IT, no doubt from desperate Realtors who learned Photoshop over the past 2-3 months, since they ain't eating, and WILL DO ANYTHING for food, including fart Happy Birthday at Old Folks Homes.

Anyway, these SCHIZO-DRIVEN FANTASIES which are quickly imploding will most likely see the most brutal price declines, what I predict are 70% BEATINGS. Siberian Desert tract whacky shacks will get spanked for slightly less, maybe 60%. The average pre-2000 Bend cracker-ass cracker, meth-cooker, Aryan-race ziek-heil, jackboot wearing, goosestepping, standard-issue batten-board shithole in DRW will probably get clocked for 50%. The same goes for gun-totting maniacs in La Pine. And Terrebonne. And Redmond too. And actually most of Bend, since we're mainly Niggra-hating Playa haters.

Yeah, I know, You Ain't... But Everyone Else Is. 2 words: Bend Buster. Yea, bitch. Mother fucker is an entrenched deep-equity type that'll outlast you, me, Cali's and the motherfuckin roaches in a direct nuclear hit. Motherfucker does NOT drive a Prius, takes rent in flatback crack ho fashion, and likes to blog when he drunk... so I guess he's a little more enlightened than he look.

Anyway, THAT motherfucker will be the ONLY one buying property when all the rest of us have been shuffled off to The City, holed up in a cracker-ass cracker 800sf meth-cookin' shithole, or have been unceremoniously shot into the Deschutes River. And that bitch will only buy at -70%.

48 comments:

Anonymous said...

National Reporter,

Here is another angle on this story, given you want a credible witness. I know who can give it to you, because I talked to the guy.

I cannot remember his name, but someone here will shortly post it. He's a 'black guy' very nice guy ( note there are very few black guys in Bend ). This guy runs the Deschutes County Animal Control. He is the man. I was at a party in July 2007, and I asked about the legality of this 'dog at large' being used by Real-Estate interests of Bend to drive out red-necks ( old timers ). This lawyer I cannot use her name, she suggested I talk to this Deschutes County Guy.

I went over to him, and mentioned that I felt this new program of banning folks from letting their dog swim in the River was just a way to keep locals away from the River. He said he complete agreed, and felt the same way. He had seen the change, and the program, and knew exactly WHO had driven the program.

If our national-reporter, wants the story they can talk to this guy, I can of course google his name, but he might have been replaced by now. I'm sure somebody knows his name, as there are only a handful of non-whites in Bend.

*

Remember most people at 'county' are very unhappy with what the new birds running Bend ( real estate interests ) have done to the town. There's got to be someone at county willing to go on record. Most of city-hall and city-staff are spineless, and part of the problem.

bruce said...

Finally! Thanks for the laugh over the image of the old geezer being turbine-cleaned and stood up post-shit.

Truly funny shit, Homer.

Also, there is a ice big full page ad from Cessna in todays BULL:

OUR MISSION IS TO BUILD GREAT AIRPLANES-AND GREAT RELATIONSHIPS

We at Cessna are ecstatic. Not only are we looking forward to working alongside a highly skilled workforce that has been responsible for one of the best next-generation aircraft in aviation, we are also extremely excited to become part of Central Oregon. For the last 80 years we have taken our involvement in all our home communities very seriously. And while it might be seen as a little outdated for a company to care about the community, for us, it's the only way to build a great relationship.

Anonymous said...

local gov conspired to get old people out of their homes by taking the last happy thing in their lives -- their dogs with $400 tickets. - National Equirer

*

There are several angles to this.

The timeline is essential.

1.) In 2003 the city of bend, revises their definition of BCC 5.25 "dog at large", to mean "any dog off leash in city limits". They selectively go after un-desirables, e.g. old timers. Tickets are written, dogs were destroyed.

2.) By summer of 2006 the panic has hit, real estate sales were down, and city-all along with real estate brethren were in a panic. All coming winter city-all/Real-Estate promised a recovery, but nothing came. In the fall of 2006 the 'enforcement' to clean up Bend of 'red-necks' went full on. By spring of 2007 it went maximum, the cop 'brown' was assigned full time, just to write 'dog at large' tickets. April 07, the 'bend weekly' announces that dogs being dumped at shelter causes over-load, after that they were destroyed, through the summer of 2007 tickets continued to be written, dogs continued to be destroyed.

Public outrage by August 2007, shut the program down. The new budget is going to kill 'enforcement' by $250k. To date the program didn't rescue Bend Real Estate, you cannot say they didn't try.

Timothy said...

Great one Homer.

Timmy's 2008 prediction: big trouble in commercial RE. Especially office space.

Banks will be getting that stuff back in a more visible way than they're getting houses back.

Watch all the regional Northwest banks (not just CACB) cry the Deschutes up to flood level around summertime 2008.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Damn. Check the Near Vertical on that National City chart: Right at Q4 - 2004, that bitch goes STRAIGHT UP.

Classic Bubble Chart.

BENDBUST said...

Homer,

Check out todays Craigs-List, over 1/2 the listing's start less than $300K, I think we have broke the median now for $300k.

Most of science, including 'natural numbers' average about 2/3, or your 70%. You can probably assume that most human hysteria's will stabilize long term at 70% (1/e), the over correction and Hysteresis is anyone's guess. The next 3-5 five years will be extremely volatile, but stabilization will occur.

{ 1/e = 1/2.71 = .367 } -> 63%, close enough to 70 for government work.

Now here's the issue for you program traders ( bruce ), if you can have your computer and/or realtor call you when homes hit -63% in your favorite hood, that's when you should buy. It's going to go a lot lower, but then vultures will step in, things will still stabilize I believe post recovery up to -50% from 2006 summer high.

Homer, regarding Bend ROI, when folks like me bought homes in Bend in the early 70's, for $15k, these homes went to $450k at summer-06 peak, so cheap to me prices would have to be 3% of 2006, or a -97% drop, to make me happy. This would be my definition of a Bend Bargain. This could happen if we do go into a 'great depression', it just all depends on what the politicians do in the next 2-3 year.

buster,

Anonymous said...

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ATOL

I think TOLL says it all hysteria hit in early 2004, by summer 2005, the smart boys were bailing, shorter's came in by summer 2006, it was game-over.

The money was made by those that got in around 2002, and bailed by 2005. That magic three year number as someone posted the other day here. Now we have the long dry five that follow.

Homer, I do agree with your old proposition that 'builders' inherently have nothing in terms of underlying value, but TOLL is a very interesting BELLWETHER. They may not come back, but they do, you can clearly see they forecast the masses very nicely.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

the image of the old geezer being turbine-cleaned and stood up post-shit.

I heard that they abandoned plans to have toilets double as garbage disposals that grind up the corpses of Geezers who pass away while taking a dump, when other old fuckers started finding hair & eyeballs in their nightly dinner. They may get approval if they sluice the remains into street gutters & not the kitchen.

Anonymous said...

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:NCC

The national-city is a very good look about how banks that are enmeshed in over-valued RE will fair, and that be MOST Central Oregon holdings.

Finance is now getting screwed, but if you focus on the 30 yr picture, they usually bounce back from these corrections.

The more interesting thing is these huge Builders like TOLL, and other's.

Do a ten year on TOL and NCC, up 1600% and 80% respectively.

My analysis on this is the banks don't have that much farther to fall, it might be very close of have played out, but these builders, are still 1500%, but the banks are down to the sill. Just something to think about.

I wouldn't post this shit if I didn't think others would add their two cents.

Anonymous said...

Good report on the 'auction' for those who want to know. Oregonian 16dec07.

http://www.oregonlive.com/news/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/news/1197777362248240.xml&coll=7


Sold! A Happy Valley 3-bedroom
Real estate - Builder Roger Pollock will auction 200 homes at the Convention Center, where some find a good deal


Auction a sign of slowdown
Sunday, December 16, 2007
RYAN FRANK
The Oregonian Staff

This weekend -- and this weekend only -- home builder Roger Pollock is auctioning off more than 200 homes he couldn't sell in the slowing housing market.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...


Check out todays Craigs-List, over 1/2 the listing's start less than $300K, I think we have broke the median now for $300k.


I have to agree with something BendBB wrote: we're getting to such low volumes that medians, avg's & other stuff is starting to less reflect "the market" as a whole, and is more the particular sales mix for a month. Remember back in May when an inordinately large number of high priced homes sold? Looked like the boom was back on! But it was just a fluke. We'll probably see many more on the upside & downside because the absolute number of units sold is getting to be so low, that stats are becoming less & less reliable about indicating "real trends".

We may well go below $300K medians soon (please be in Dec!), but we could also have bounces up 10-20% in any given month. STD's, be definition, go UP when the number of observations goes down. That means more variation in any given month.

Timothy said...

If loans become impossible to get, only the cash buyers will be able to buy houses. That could skew the numbers.

Medians are going to be absolutely worthless bullshit until the inventory is back down at normal levels.

Anonymous said...

Timothy said...

If loans become impossible to get, only the cash buyers will be able to buy houses. That could skew the numbers.

*

Which is why I have suggested for months, that you purchase a home while you can.

Let's review the 'great depression' RE paralysis, buyers wouldn't buy, sellers wouldn't go down. Eventually when sellers had to sell, you could no longer buy money, then RE went down 90%. This process took three years.

How this plays out really depends on Government, sadly we converted our HOME finance biz from FHA, FMA, ... To Wall-Street which used foreigners to feed the sub-prime pool. By 2006 everything had become sub-prime, soon NO investor will give to housing.

Think for a moment when I say 'government' if the government 'freezes' are changes the terms-of-the-contract on prior RE deals or future, then contracts MEAN NOTHING.

This could be a good thing all home purchase will fall to private contracts.

Timmy, when your ready to buy a home, at -90%, and you don't have the cash, perhaps we can make a deal on a loan. I think this will be the likely future.

The good news once the Republicans are out stuff can be fixed, the current bunch of bastards only intend to make shit worse. They like the folks who run Bend are like 'Midas, whereas everything they touch, turns to Shit'.

Anonymous said...

The following from Duncans blog, this 'tetherow night security' might be something to watch. People running around with mask's. Do the folks working 'security' for our BOSS-HOGGS now have to hide their faces?? Is this Iraq? Are they blackwater? Are we Iraqis?

***

Duncan,

I thought I would post this here, as you tend to also report on strange sightings for the record.

The last couple night's 4-6pm, I had gone for walks above Tetherow.

Both nights after dusk I encountered different guys completely dressed in black with camaflouge masks, gloves. Both carrying plastics boxes, a glock on their waist, and a black 308 remington sniper rifle with a harris bipod.

On both occasions they told me they were hunting varmint, specifically coyotes. They wanted to know what I was doing there ( note I was west in Forest Land ), they wanted to know on both occasions how often I walked out there.

My gut feeling is that two nights in a row, to meet two different guys that both approached me, before I saw them is not happenstance. My guess is that Tetherow has some kind of strange perimeter security going, or their gaurds are bored out of their minds. Still carrying 100% cop sniper equipment for coyote? That's over-kill. The glock backup as well. It certainly wasn't cold out, there was NO reason for full face masks on both occasions.

The first night the guy was tall and heavy, the second night it was a tall slender guy.

I just wanted this incident recorded, because I found it interesting. You have to understand that your typically varmint sniper doesn't wander around after dusk carrying several thousand dollars of equipment.

Timothy said...

>>Which is why I have suggested for months, that you purchase a home while you can.

It's good advice, but I'm still tempted to wait for Armageddon. I think it's possible that houses will come down hard to meet the cash people have.

I very well might jump the gun and buy next year, instead of waiting it out. I'm patient, but not PERFECTLY patient.

Anyway, your advice is better than 99% of advice I get. Everyone was laughing at me 2 years ago for not buying then.

MIsstrade said...

One word for you, Fibonacci. 71.1% is a key Fib number. Use it learn it and its all over in all tradeable markets.

Anonymous said...

71.1% is a key Fib

*

63%, or 71%, its still averages at 67, which is DAMN close to homers 2/3,

63% could be a buy marker, and 71% a sell? if it starts dropping below 71%, I don't think you may want to own any for five or more years.

Other than for a long haul of 10+ years, buying RE in Bend is dangerously speculative gamble.

Anonymous said...

I very well might jump the gun and buy next year, instead of waiting it out. I'm patient, but not PERFECTLY patient.

*

A good thing to do would be to find out the hood's where 'most' of the people bought 20+ years ago, and don't intend to sell, and that own free and clear, with NO HELOC.

My nieghbors talk, and most of the folks on my street will weather, what I'm getting to is there will be no homes with broken windows, and shit that will attract kids, once your hood becomes infected with cockroaches, its doesn't matter how cheap it gets.

Choose your hood, look around, make sure its no over 10% newbies, because anybody that bought in the last five years is going to be hurting bad, folks that don't have a house payment should be fine.

We haven't even seen the layoff's yet, it could get up to 30% here in un-employment.

If you buy a house in the next year, know your neighborhood, I think that is far more important than price.

It's far better to be in a hood, of well armed old timed neighbors that put up with NO SHIT. I would hate to be in a siberian-desert tract 1/2 empty. People are going to be growing, and cooking meth, and the cops are going to be too busy to even answer the phone.

Anonymous said...

It's far better to be in a hood, of well armed old timed neighbors that put up with NO SHIT....

Great advise -- what are some of the good hoods in Bend? Is it just a small few, like close-in West side?

Timothy said...

>>If you buy a house in the next year, know your neighborhood, I think that is far more important than price.

That is really good advice. Thanks. I'll check out neighborhoods and streets in DIAL before I buy to make sure my neighbors aren't on the edge of disaster.

It's the people who stretched at the wrong time who will get creamed.

Anonymous said...

What's become our our beloved blog sanctuary? Have the nut-cases completely taken over?

Anonymous said...

Is it just a small few, like close-in West side?

*

Yes, exactly Shevlin Park, NWXC anywhere you can legally own a machine gun.

Anonymous said...

I think after two or was three too many beers I worked out "Homer's Calculus"

Ok, here it goes, its profound, and its deep.

Ya take da 'snow white' you know the HO, and you get her seven pimps. Then ya count da digits, include da foot's.

Ok, now we're leaving homer-calculus, seven pimps divided by ten digits is 7/10, or .70.

BINGO, you got Homer's magic number, is that it or what?

Anonymous said...

'Cali steps in Thirty Year Old Dog Shit"
The Bulletin ( Bend, or ) Dec 16, 2007

Yesterday a remnant of 'the day' caused a major catastrophe near McKay Park. A thirty year old 'doggy rocca' from the 1970's was found by a California tourist while watching eagles near coveted Old Mill Condos.

The Bend area was closed off most of the day while HazMat teams from Redmond responded to enforce.

Bruce Abernethy has assured VCB/DVA that no 'doggy rocca' will ever be found again. Bend is now free of dog shit, so said Bend's Mayor.

Abernethy said "we have virtually eliminated all trace of dog's, humanity, and auto's from the old age of Bend." ... "We have banned the burning of wood, we have made the cost of auto ownership out of reach for the poor, we have shutdown Homeless Food Programs."

There are some in Bend think the 'program' to eradicate family pets is not over. Ron Garzini Bend's own Mr-Fixit says "I have never met a dog problem that couldn't be resolved by a 30-06 rifle"

Anonymous said...

Anonymous National Reporter said...

Hey Deep Throat Dumb Asses (with affection),

Pitching and writing a story often requires underground information and persepctives. It also requires bringing something NEW to the table.
*
Well on our table tonight, we had Bend Goose Shit from Drake Park, a little dog-shit from Big-Sky, followed by some Bend-Cougar cunt for desert.

{ p.s. Intl space alien reporter, learn to spell, especially perspectives, there is little to no reason for spelling failure using blogspot.com }

Anonymous said...

Losers, all of you, who believed that anybody actually cared about the two dogs who were put down because they smelled bad, and left dogshit around for Calis to step in.

Who cares? Nobody. Not even a loser make believe reporter.

*

You have just defined all 'reporters' in Bend. Could you just for a moment imagine being a reporter in Bend?

BULL: Hey Joe, we just got the tenth PressRelease today from Tetherow, get back into pagemaker 1.0!

SORE: Hey HBM, there's a meeting tonight at the Silver Moon, a bunch of Lisbos's are going 'impeach bush'.

Yeah, like we're right there, and all this for $2/hr!! With benny's? NOT!

Ok, lets take our feedback with a grain of salt. "A loser in Bend", hell that's an exceptional bird. A cali that's afraid of dog-shit, whoa, no wonder they moved to Orygun.

I think the best part, is people who 'care'. Think about Bend for a moment, I have never met anyone who arrived in the last ten years who cared about anything other than their dick and their wallet.

All of the above is what makes Bend so fucking exceptional. Like this is why Bend is the #1 tourist resort in America. www.visitbend.com, www.gobend.com, ...

Anonymous said...

That is really good advice. Thanks. I'll check out neighborhoods and streets in DIAL before I buy to make sure my neighbors aren't on the edge of disaster. - timmy twat

*

Thats the ticket dude. Just go to 'dial' and search for 'newbie', 'cali', 'siberia', ... Yeh DIAL has it all, hell they got cameras 24/7 watching everyone.

The only way you can know a hood, is to live there, given the current climate, a smart renter should move every six months until they find a hood they know.

Anonymous said...

Great advise -- what are some of the good hoods in Bend? Is it just a small few, like close-in West side?

*

It's "great ADVICE", this is the same typist as our 'national reporter', I haven't seen anyone type this bad since 'dartagnan' who was a pseduonym for homer when his wife didn't buy beer.

Anonymous said...

Great advise -- what are some of the good hoods in Bend? Is it just a small few, like close-in West side?

*

The only good hood in Bend is the one buster lives in. All the others SUCK.

Anonymous said...

All the others SUCK.

*

All of Bend sucks, that's why I moved back to LA-Pines.

bruce said...

Here are some scary numbers to comment on:

Notice of Default and Intention to Sell

Month Number
12/05 17
01/06 21
02/06 18
03/06 20
04/06 17
05/06 20
06/06 14
07/06 13
08/06 19
09/06 17
10/06 18
11/06 19
12/06 25
01/07 26
02/07 24
03/07 38
04/07 33
05/07 30
06/07 41
07/07 56
08/07 52
09/07 56
10/07 76
11/07 80
12/07 39 through 12/14

Source: http://recordings.deschutes.org/login.asp

Username: anybody
Password: anything

There's a serious meltdown happening here. There are almost as many foreclosures as there are sales right now. And it's only going to get worse next winter after all next summers subprime mortgage resets.

Anonymous said...

It also requires bringing something NEW to the table.

*

Are you a sodomist? Do you know where the D&D is? Do you know BENDBB?

We in Bend, always like it when cali's bring new stuff to the table.

Anonymous said...

HBM,

You want something new to the 'table', but the fact is this summer, when the Silver-Moon had their 'impeach bush' Faux-Impeachment, and Hanging. You didn't attend.

I was there, at the 11th hour, there was a call, from city-hall, that said if the 'faux impeachment' went through, Sliver-Moon would lose their OLCC. You didn't copy the story then, you still haven't copied the story.

You say you want new shit on the table, but you never have put any old shit on the table.

Take 'Bruces' Les Schwab Agreement, not a fucking membrer of the media has even admitted its existence to date. How 'fucking' new does news have to be??

Why didn't you get off your lazy ass and attend the 'faux bush impeachment', I called you on it, on the day, and you said you were too busy to attend, but the SOURCE but a whole page out on the event. Like always the SOURCE is real good about promoting events, but their single fucking reporter doesn't have the time to cover the actual event. Had, you actually been there, you would have KNOWN, the Republicans shut the event down.

All this summer, you didn't attend a fucking city-hall meeting once, when you were asked why you were never there, you said it was because "The Bulletin was already covering all city-hall meetings".

How about, for once you getting off your ass, and YOU bringing something new to the table??

Anonymous said...

'scary shit' foreclosures, now exceed sales in Bend, Oregon.

11/07 80
12/07 39 through 12/14

Source: http://recordings.deschutes.org/login.asp

Username: anybody
Password: anything

***

Why do you say 'scary', scary to whom?

We knew this was coming. There is not a fucking thing that is happening that is a fucking surprise.

Bend was #1 over-valued, like fucking rhetoric today on second homes. Fuck that shit, I know title secretaries in Bend that own four flippers. Everyone in Bend, bought, 1,2,3,4 flippers, and a few in Prineville, and a couple in Madras, because they could no longer afford Bend.

Anonymous said...

Bend, was fucking 1/2 un-occupied last winter, this winter its going to become 1/3 occupied.

Pity the siberian shit, that has whole streets on without a fucking light.

This is the point, nobody will buy, and soon, nobody will loan.

When you figure Bend is 10X oversold, its quite easy to see that it will go down -90%.

Anonymous said...

Bend, was fucking 1/2 un-occupied last winter, this winter its going to become 2/3 occupied.

[ correction, now 2/3 }

Anonymous said...

The holy fucking grail of Bend, for the past twenty years, was second homes by folks in PDX.

That shit is over, the snow is now better at Meadows or even Government Camp.

Fuel is UP, Bend has gone to Shit, folks in PDX don't even want to go to Bend anymore, as its MORE cali, than cali.

The cali's, don't come up, they all bought second homes also from the bay, but that 12 hr drive, is now too expensive.

Who in the FUCK owns second homes in Bend, a lot of people have second homes in Sun River from PDX that are paid for, but that's another issue, and probably why Sun-River prices are holding the best.

Look right now Yarrow, Brasada, NWXC, ALL of fucking Brooks, except Pronghorn is FUCKED.

The only reason PRONGHORN is HOT, is they have a private-driveway to the airport. So that 'real rich' don't have to look at white-trash.

With the exception of Tetherow, and Pronghorn, Everything in Bend is 'white-trash', and the so called 'riche' that were coming to Bend, aren't coming, and the HELOC rich are broke.

bruce said...

Extend the 9187-2001 trend line on Homer's median home prices chart and it shows medians well under $200K. That's where we're heading. And the sooner the better in the long run.

bruce said...

1987-2001...

Anonymous said...

'MEDIANS' don't mean SHIT.

We have been below $300k, for a long time.

Folks that had asked $500k in 2005/2006 were taking $250k in jan/feb 07, this is why stuff was selling back then,

Now as then, stuff is selling for $200k, that's already down -60%, which is damn close to 1/e. It's already fucking here now.

Fuck the MEDIAN's that NAR reports, and that cunt BENDBB they don't mean shit.

Anonymous said...

Every where I go now, is ALL negative, even the fucking liberals that don't know where to wipe their ass, are now saying the sky is falling.

I'm getting very close to making the contrarian call.

We have already been in the Bend-Bust for over a 1-1/2 year, we have already passed the milestone in the last 30 days where the BULL has admitted its game-over.

Anonymous said...

Buster,

Tell us how to cook dog?

Tell us how to prepare goose-shit from drake park?

TEll us how to prepare chip-munk?

Tell us how wipe our ass, pleeeeze.

Anonymous said...

I'm sad, I'm hurt, and quite frankly, I'm angry. I just read through this whole thing, and unless I'm mistaken, not a single word about my Becky. My dear, sweet, lovely, hard working Becky. You should all be ashamed of yourselves.

Anonymous said...

Jupiter Coyote Lyrics

Becky Lyrics

Well now look at me Becky
Yeah I'm wasted again
And your valley is laughing
At the fool I've been
The fool I've been
Well now look at me Becky
Cause you're all I see
And if there is something you've been hiding on your other side
I wish you'd give up girl
show it up to me
Cause it's late afternoon and the sun's fading shadows
Cast that surreal glow on your beautiful face
And every time that I see you I just wanna freeze the time
But with that sun you'll vanish without a trace
Without a trace
Well now look at me Becky
Yeah and don't turn away
Cause the hours I have longed for you
Now are my borrowed days
My borrowed days
But it's late afternoon and the sun's fading shadows
Cast that surreal glow on your beautiful face
And every time that I see you I just wanna freeze the time
But with that sun you'll vanish without a trace
Look at me Becky
Yes now look at me Becky
Well now look at me Becky
Well now look at me Becky
Well now look at me Becky
Well now look at me Becky
Well now look at me Becky
Well now look at me Becky

The Natives Are Restless said...

How about this one...
(sung to the tune of Copacabana)

Her name was Becky,she was an agent
with realestate signs in her trunk
trying to peddle a bunch of junk
She would merengue, and do the cha-cha
And while she tried to be a star she even drove a fancy car
She'd work that cell phone hard
Passing out her business card
She was young, workin on commission
Ridin' that Bubble hard
At the Plaza, the Old Mill Plaza
The deadest spot east of the Gaza
At the Plaza, the Old Mill Plaza
Becky was hatin' and swithin and baitin
A the Plaza, She lost it all...
(Plaza, the Old Mill Plaza)

Buster gets busted! said...

Well on our table tonight, we had Bend Goose Shit from Drake Park, a little dog-shit from Big-Sky, followed by some Bend-Cougar cunt for desert...


Hey Buster "the connoisseur" Butt Hole,

Thanks for the spelling tip. So I guess that means you really did have B-C cunt for “desert” -- and not for DESSERT! Awwwwwwww Buster got BUSTED.

You just lost all credibility, BustterHole. Maybe that goose shit you ate came out of your brain.

Here’s a tip for you – triple check your spelling before telling someone else to check theirs.

bruce said...

Re: So I guess that means you really did have B-C cunt for “desert” -- and not for DESSERT!

By definition, B-C cunt is desert. Dry as can be. That's why you gotta bring the Astroglide.

(Sorry--just couldn't resist. Just how far can we degenerate?)

bruce said...

I tried to put this on BEBB, but informe is screwed up again...

On Healthcare Costs

You really would rather support the insurance and drug industries rather than simple stupid humans that will always need healthcare at some point?

Then these kind of paychecks should come out of your pocket:

William McGuire, the UnitedHealth CEO ousted last year in an options-backdating scandal, has cut a deal to settle civil and federal government claims that came out of the options mess.

After the giveback, McGuire still has about 24 million stock options, worth in the neighborhood of $800 million, WSJ reports. During his tenure at UnitedHealth, he was paid $530 million.

Taurel, Sidney
Chairman and CEO. Eli Lilly

The total compensation figure includes salary of $1.7 million, $2.8 million in non-equity performance pay, stock and options valued at a cost to the company of $9.2 million, a $1.4 million increase in pension value and $192,409 in "other compensation." This category included the company's $99,020 401(k) match, as well as perks such as $91,069 in costs for the use of the corporate aircraft to attend outside board meetings. As of Dec. 31, pension and nonqualified deferred compensation stood at $41,911,019.

Essner, Robert
Chairman, CEO, Wyeth

Aside from his salary of $1.66 million, Mr. Essner earned $3 million in nonequity incentive pay, stock and option awards valued at a cost to the company of $23.51 million, an increase in the value of his pension of $4.53 million as well as other compensation worth $147,138. The "other" category includes $41,397 for personal use of company aircraft, $49,860 representing company matches to savings plans and $27,471 for tax reimbursement. As of Dec. 31, the value of Mr. Essner's pension and deferred compensation stood at $26,591,865.

More here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/12/17/164842/12/655/423452

Yes it's that fucking liberal site DailyKos. You know, those pissy liberal libertarians that don't ban you for saying what you believe, unlike RedState, NewRepublic, and their ilk.

But when hundreds of millions of dollars go into those pockets that are in charge of saying whether somebody like my wife gets an MRI on her knee, who decides what she pays for her epilepsy meds, who cranks our premiums up every year, while at the same time cranking up our co-pays, I just get fucking mad.

And when I read about the rest of the civilized world not having this layer of blubber, and getting better results for far less money, I get even fucking madder.

So there you have it. If you support the Republicans and most of the Dems, I'm sure Billy Tauscher will feed you when you have to suck up to someone's teat.

You know, that ex-Congressman who kept the vote open for hours in the House, until three in the morning, so he could get the Medicare Drug Bill passed with a prohibition on the US government bargaining on pricing with the drug companies.

And then resigned and took a $2M a year job as the head drug company trade lobby group.

We simply need single-payer, with negotiated pricing based on costs here and the rest of the world.

We don't need to subsidize the super rich on the backs of the health of those we love.