Monday, July 9, 2007

Bend June 2007 -- Prelude To Disaster

By my mark, June 2007 will mark The Beginning of The End for Bend real estate.

Well, not really. It will actually mark the middle of the end. The true beginning of the end began in September 2006 with medians at $380,500. I don't believe we will hit this figure again in the lifetime of many Bendites.

But like most cults, the cult of Bend RE has various gradations of true believers. Hearken back to early 2006, and you would have found "real fringe nutjobs" like BEM & I raging against the machine on his original kickbutt blog. There were a few fence-sitters who listened to our ramblings about how "this cannot stand". But the VAST MAJORITY were of the Kool-Aid consuming ilk, and professed the idea that 30+% yearly gains were not only possible, but really the only realistic outcome in a Paradise like Bend. Through much of 2006, BEM and I were statistically challenged, and could show little validation for our thesis. Sure, inventory was going up, but that led to reassurance of "choice" and many other buyer friendly chants. The Bulls were well and truly in charge.

Then, round about October 2006, there was a distinct and rather surprising cool-down. Inventory came off the Summer highs, but sales fell off more so. Prices even fell off. There seemed to be rumblings of a crack in the market, which converted some of the true believers, but not many. The signals were still too "mixed".

From October until May of this year, there has been an almost Epic Waiting For Godot. "Have we bottomed out, and absorbed enough for a run at new highs?". "How will Spring go, should I list & will buyers show?". "How will rates, and easy financing affect sales, and is Bend immune?"

To be honest, there has been no clear cut trend. Inventory went ballistic, but the commensurate drop in prices never materialized. There was a huge drop in overall dollar volume -- near 50% -- but if you could sell, you weren't taking a beating on price. And so it's been with the Bend RE market for the past 3 quarters. To paraphrase Vivian Merciers' characterization of Waiting For Godot, Bend RE has been a play where “nothing happens, twice."

I think the confusion ends now. David Foster offers this as his first line in his June 2007 "Crystal Ball" section:

The June statistics offer few surprises, as the Bend market is continuing to adjust much as expected.

In some measure, he is right. Things seem to be just continuing a long trend of lessening the boil. There have been ups and downs, but the one thing that's stayed constant for 3 quarters has been the slowdown. No real catastrophe, no real booms to the old tops.

But there's the rub. Now, RIGHT NOW, was supposed to mark Our Ascendence To All Time Highs And 30%+ Gains For Life, was it not? June 2007, from the perspective of last November, was supposed to be characterized by dancing in the streets and all manner of Utopian real estate fueled splendor. But that is NOT the case. Sales volume has fallen off almost 50%. The Dream Is Over. We waited, and it is NOT HERE.

Here's a graph that roughly demonstrates where I think we are, using the NASDAQ as a parallel.


The True, mega, all-time top, I believe happened last September, with medians hitting $380,500. Since that time, there have been a series of peaks and valley's, with nothing really conclusive up or down. I think May gave a truly strange anomalous performance that just served to confuse many. The culprit was a small number of extremely expensive homes getting sold, in a particularly slow month. So May had this paradoxical nature of lousy volume, but seemingly firm prices. Not conclusive, at all.

But I think we are seeing something akin to the "right shoulder" that ushered in the catastrophic decline of the NASDAQ that started in the 2nd half of 2000. In less than 3 quarters the NASDAQ began a breathtaking plummet from the mid 4,000's, down to 1,600, an unparalleled drop never seen before by any major market in modern history. This is where I believe Bend real estate is today.

Obviously I do not think Bend RE will suffer a drop of similar proportions. That said, I didn't think the NASDAQ would get clocked from 5,050 down to almost 1,000. I don't think anyone did. But I do think we are entering a New Phase: The Next year or two will eradicate COMPLETELY the True Believers, and The Fence Sitters as having any hope whatsoever, that we will see prices that eclipse the old highs substantially & forever. I think we'll see price and volume action that clearly telegraph the message, IT IS OVER to all involved, much like it was telegraphed by the NASDAQ when it plunged towards 80% declines.

Why?

Look at June 2007 data. And remember this period in time is supposed to be The Savior of the temporary softness that started last Fall. From David Foster:

The average sales price dropped from $426,655 YTD in May to $418,229 YTD in June. The median YTD sale price also decreased from $351,900 to $349,250 in June and is now 1% less than at the first of the year. As compared to June 2006 (YOY), the average sales price has increased 5% and the median increased just 1%.

If you look at David's May summary, you see there were 691 sales at an average of $426,655 (median $351,900). From June, you see 850 sales at $418,229. These are both YTD figures, so backing out June only shows 159 sales at an average of $381,610. Here's a progression of David's YTD figures:

March: AVG $408,208 MEDIAN: $349,500
April: AVG $408,162 MEDIAN: $349,250
May: AVG $426,655 MEDIAN: $351,900
June: AVG $418,229 MEDIAN $349,250

Now, it may seem reasonable to say, "Hey, June is just correcting the weirdness of May. Look, we're still above April!". Hmmmm. True, but the start of the year was chugging along with averages and medians that were pretty darn stable in the $400's, and June has slumped to the low $380's. Now, I wouldn't think that's so big a deal, but there is no "Oomph" left in Bend RE. Nobody is buying ANYTHING! Dollar volume DOWN almost 50%? Talk to Realtors: These people eat dollar volume, NOT MEDIANS, and there is no volume in this market.

The Eastside sucks. But the Eastside is on fire compared to the Mega-Suckiness of the Westside! From mstucker on BendBB:

YTD June 30 2007 Median sales price, Bend Residential only, By quad.

NW $450,000
SW $395,000
NE $293,550
SE $325,000

Then from "The Wizard" (Realtor):

Paul-doh! said
I don't know what the monthly medians for Bend residential are

329,500...

Now, look at that quadrant data, and the June medians below $330K. That tells me the West has died. That's a right shoulder, right there.

If there was to be a Happy Face on the RE market here, it was supposed to happen now. Big volume, new SUV's, busy closing's, and all that good stuff. We do not have that. We have a financial sector that is increasingly becoming terrified of exactly the instruments that got us here, subprime, CMO's, and the like. Now it's OK when Grama loses money on this stuff, but we got Big Boys getting their asses fired over billion dollar bets gone bad in the mortgage backed department. It's not as bad as BendBust (or whoever) says, in that we are about to lose 40X Global GDP... but it is not good.

CMO (Collateralized Mortgage Obligations) are basically mutual funds, backed by mortgages, but there's a twist: The payout of interest is chopped, sliced, and diced, so that that there can be "manufactured" obligations from very high quality/low yield, to high risk/reward investments. Like all things, risk has it's price, and the prospect of making 12% by buying the high risk tranche is pretty attractive. But what they're finding is the default rate on the lowest grade tranches has been underestimated: Yup, when you lend money to people with nothing in the pot themselves, they don't really give a rat's ass about defaulting. And they did.

This is all well & good, but that Cletus tranche sort of acted like an insurance policy against upper tranches getting their ratings beaten down. Cuz once Cletus defaults, they start taking interest payments away from us "normals", then all of a sudden Alt-A that was supposed to be insulated from EVER losing money, looks like BBB. Woof, and BBB is worth WAY LESS than the AA we thought we were getting.

And when Merrill tried to liqudate their "collateral", they got what many Bendite homeowners are now getting: Few bids they would even consider, but what's worse they got ZERO bids on some of their mortgage pools. NADA.

Now, I'm not sure where they are, but the Big Boys are essentially saying there are homes out there with ZERO capacity to produce ANY INCOME. They do not want them at any price. That is scary. And I don't think it'll happen overnight, or even in a straight line, but Bend is the Quintessential Mega Bubble Town Of All Time. We're like many of the craptacular NASDAQ bubble stocks: We have not nearly the income to substantiate our current asset prices (homes, and RE). We are MASSIVELY overbuilding on all fronts. The access to capital is being turned off, at least for a generation of buyers. And we are building just laughable, idiotic projects. Every possible avenue to waste our resources is being explored to the fullest. Water parks, Frodo-village, condos piled up in every corner, and lately, even developers threatening to purposefully build UNWANTED projects if they don't get their way! Thanks Mountain Gate...

So here we are. Doesn't seem like catastrophe is imminent. But look back in 3-4 years. You will be awed by the complacency, even your own. This IS IT. This is the right shoulder of a breathtaking plunge that will carry us into the $200's. There will be a MASSIVE asset liquidation tsunami coming. At first it'll be garage sales and big SUV's. That'll be the signal, the receding waters that perplex & confuse people. Then will come wave upon wave of forced liquidation. There is no escaping the singular fact that we are a real live town (not Aspen, not Jackson Hole) with the economics to support home prices far closer to $199K, than $399K.

MARK MY WORDS: Let the devastation begin. The 4 Horseman of the Bend RE Apocalypse are coming. There is NO OTHER OPTION. We have already witnessed medians fall from $380K to $330K, and few are even mildly worried. Complacency is always in tremendous abundance before The Plunge. It actually makes the plunge possible. The complacent Discretionary Seller, becomes the Panicked Sell-At-All-Costs seller we'll see at the bottom, after they lose their job. We will see medians in the $200's before year end.

240 comments:

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IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Oy! Sorry about the terrible fontifying changes. Every attempt I made to unify the font, just made things worse...

bendbutt said...

It's not as bad as BendBust (or whoever) says, in that we are about to lose 40X Global GDP...

What??? You don't believe what BendBust says? You must be a koolaid drinker.

BENDBUST said...


It's not as bad as BendBust (or whoever) says, in that we are about to lose 40X Global GDP... but it is not good.


Actually what this stat means is that the total VALUE worldwide of the CMO/CDO leveraged paper is 45X GLOBAL GDP.

Think of this as like a P/E much of this 'paper' is as we know quite worthless, yet its 'paper-value' on paper is 45X Global GDP.

When this thing fucking un-winds WHO knows what it will be worth.

Expert bond trader's I know are saying 10% on the dollar.

UBS exec's that I know are saying that they're only 3% invested in toxic-waste ( this is what the big boyz call it ) of such, and don't plan on getting hurt.

That's because they sold their shit a few months ago, like before sub-prime meltdown in Feb 07.

It's just like when the Bend-Bubble un-winds, my bet all along is stabilization ( $240K ) at 4X of income/yr, but first like TT says the rubber-band will over-constrict, and thus we'll perhaps see $120k

WRT 45X global GDP, nobody said we're going to lose it, the figure is the amount of highly leverage hedge paper that has been written. It's almost an 'astronomical figure'. The good news is the smartest guys in the world, are once again trying to un-wind all this shit and fix our economy.

WRT grand-ma as posted today by TT, yes anybody that honestly thought they could get +6% return without risk is-was a DODO, whether the stock broker was a good looking guy or not. Like ol greenspan said, only invest in T-bills, and T-bonds.

"Hello granny this is your stock broker, with bad news...Yes, You remember your investment, Yes, Well its down, You mean the 6%?, No I mean the principle, its gone, What about the 6%, oh thats up, they'll now pay 12% on good money, but the bad money is gone, well that's good".

If anybody really cares about the 45X global GDP figure I could go back and publish more, I think the point here is a lot of worthless paper is floating around, and a lot of it MUST un-wind, and there are a LOT of houses that MUST be sold to get cash back to pay ALL the lawyers that NOW must be paid.

It's going be a long time before any granny's buy CDO Bonds that are MARKED BEND-MTG.

BENDBUST said...


A LOT of houses that MUST be sold to get cash back to pay ALL the lawyers that NOW must be paid.


The current estimate is 20% of the paper is worthless, basically the figure flying around is $2 Trillion.

Every granny has now hired a lawyer, who will get 1/2 of what is left, after underlaying homes are sold for real 'good' money. This is going to be a bonanza for lawyers, I think this is why Bend RE will go to $120K is that the REIT/CDO paper holders MUST liquidate the homes to pay the lawyers. It's going to be a real shark feeding frenzy.

Anonymous said...

Excellent POST IHTBYB, its good to see some opinion, and NOT just numbers all the time.

Anonymous said...

The central oregon research triangle Madras-Prineville-Bend

have your 3 universities.

1. The Natural & Artificial Rubber Polytechnic Institute.

{ Prineville, in honor of 're-cap' founder }

2. Bend Tire Changing and Rotation trade school.

{ Madra }

3. The Free Beef School of PR and Marketing.

{ Bend, the home of condo-whore, free beef to every condo purchaser }

The central oregon research triangle Madras-Prineville-Bend

BENDBUST said...

The below is all I found, there is NO 45X, or 40X, but let's deal with the accusation.


Leveraged-to-the-hilt financial mess that is so big that it is estimated to be in the $450 trillion range, which is roughly nine (pause) times (pause) global (pause) G (pause) D (pause) freaking P!!


This is outstanding value of paper that the leveraged paper at peak.

When paper is being traded that is over 9X of the global GDP that should even wake up the "The Bulletin".


$1,000 trillion of CDOs {45 times the world GDP }


This is a figure for paper traded in one year.

Can you imagine the fucking commissions that are-were being made on this sheeeeeeeeet????????

The point's that were being made here is that like P/E, it would take a millennium to actually create the kind of 'good' value out of the 'bad' paper.

In simple words, you know something is terribly wrong, when numbers like this are flying around.

Anonymous said...


I think we are seeing something akin to the "right shoulder" that ushered in the catastrophic decline of the NASDAQ that started in the 2nd half of 2000.


This is a good model, because they're both speculation. Most excess in Bend was bought and built on SPEC. Most stock bought on dot-com was margin-spec. Most homes bought on bend-bubble were cdo-subprime-spec.

Easy money for both by people who thought things only went up.

The real collapse of the right-shoulder will occur when the interest rate reset's go in, this is when the pain will be felt, and people MUST sell.

Like you say most say are still in denial.

A recent survey reported 3/4 of all people think there house is worth what they paid, and 1/2 think its worth more, ...

Anonymous said...

CIA FACT BOOK

GDP (purchasing power parity):
GWP (gross world product): $65.95 trillion (2006 est.)
GDP (official exchange rate):
$46.76 trillion (2006 est.)
GDP - real growth rate:
5.3% (2006 est.)

*

Estimates I have seen are $1,000 Trillion churn in cdo/cmo/hedge derivatives per year, 20X Global-GDP

Leveraged to the hilt in cdo/cmo/hedge paper $450 Trillion, then 10X of Global-GDP

There is no 40X

Anonymous said...


You don't believe what BendBust says? You must be a koolaid drinker.


A few of post too much on Mon,Tue,&Wed eve of happy hour pricing.

Anonymous said...

Garbage In, Carnage Out
By Jonathan R. Laing
Word Count: 2,146 | Companies Featured in This Article: Bear Stearns, MBIA

LOW INTEREST RATES AND LAX LENDING STANDARDS allowed millions of Americans to buy homes in the past few years, including many who lacked the means to repay their mountains of "subprime" debt. Now that mortgage rates are rising and the bill is coming due, these borrowers aren't the only folks who may be facing financial Armageddon.

Attention has begun to turn in recent weeks to the trillion dollars or so of securities Wall Street rolled out in the past two years to fund the mortgages of less-creditworthy borrowers, who are starting to default in higher numbers. The losses on these ...

Anonymous said...

Here's a good re-cap,

1.) Feb07 subprime is goes dead, insiders were told prior to xmas
2.) WSJ announces in Feb, it takes 3 months to get your money out of a hedge fund, by May07 funds went belly.
3.) By Jun07 granny finds out money is gone
4.) By July07, there is NO MTG money to be found, houses completely quit selling, except for cash deals

***

The Ecology of Toxic Mortgages

Posted July 5, 2007 | 06:02 PM

I lead two lives. Three days a week, I'm employed as chief investment strategist for a hedge fund that specializes in distressed and bankrupt situations. The rest of my time, I do what I've done for decades, which is to write about nature and the environment. There is virtually no overlap between these two worlds -- with one exception. At a metaphorical level, there are irresistible parallels between a profound flaw in early models of how to deal with pollution, and an almost exactly analogous flaw in financial models for how to deal with the financial universe's own version of toxics: risk.


My role at the fund is to look at the macro situation, and to help the portfolio managers interpret how larger trends in the economy will interact to the benefit or detriment of our investments and prospective opportunities. In that capacity, I've been looking at the unfolding debacle in subprime lending, a slow motion, far-reaching toxic poisoning, whose reach and impacts have been obvious for at least eighteen months to anyone not involved in making money off the origination, sale, and securitization of these subprime loans.

Unfortunately for investors, that aforementioned conflicted group includes virtually everybody in finance, including the mortgage brokers, subprime lenders, Wall Street firms that securitize the loans into mortgage-backed securities, Wall Street firms that then resecuritize slices of these bonds into collateralized debt obligations, and the rating agencies that, for a price, enable all these securitizations and re-securitizations, by blessing these teetering structures with ratings that imply far less risk than is turning out to be the case. There has been a good deal written about the ecology of finance in recent years, but reading about theoretical parallels between the worlds of nature and finance pales in comparison to the thrill of watching a toxics crisis in finance unfold before your eyes almost exactly as it does in the environment. For all our vaunted foresight, it's interesting to see that when greed and self-interest come into play, collectively we're no smarter than fruit flies.

In this case, the flawed environmental model for dealing with risk might be summed up by the cute phrase, "dilution is the solution to pollution." For a number of years, we freely poured toxics into the water and skies under the assumption that pollutants would disperse and become harmless in these vast receptacles. Instead, what we discovered is that these toxics re-accumulate as creatures eat each other and are eaten, a process repeated on up the food chain until the toxics reach deadly concentrations in the top predators and big animals. I remember years ago reading that dead whales washed up in the Saint Lawrence seaway contained such high concentrations of heavy metals and other toxics that in the U.S., they would be declared superfund sites.

That also could be said for some of the big investment banks, hedge funds, and Wall Street firms at the moment. The toxics in this case would be portfolios of various forms of securitization of subprime, alt-a and other loans that, amazingly enough, aren't performing according to models developed during the greatest run-up of home prices in American history. (I recall attending one conference on securitizations of home equity loans in early 2006 where the quants showed us supposedly reassuring "stress" tests of these bonds under various scenarios of home price appreciation. The most "stress" they envisioned was 3% appreciation, and not the negative price movements we are seeing just a year later). The practical logic behind packaging these risky loans was that most of them were money good, and that so long as defaults did not exceed expectations -- say 4-5% of the loans being packaged -- the great preponderance of the securitization could be treated as investment grade. And, the philosophy behind this whole process was that risk could be reduced if it was sliced up and efficiently dispersed in the investor ocean.

But, in an exact analogy, to the environmental example, risk did not stay dispersed. Rather it re-aggregated in the whales (hedge funds, investment banks, and pension funds) of the investment community. And now these top dogs are discovering that risk is just as toxic if it's sliced up and reformulated as if it never was broken up in the first place.

The analogy does break down ultimately, because in the investment universe version we have an accelerant to the toxicity of risk in the form of leverage. Because so many of these repackaged subprime loans were rated investment grade, the whales could gorge on the stuff using borrowed money. The embedded leverage is astonishing. While each deal is different, and this unregulated market remains opaque to non-participants, an idealized example illustrates this point:

Take a billion dollars in subprime mortgages and package them into a new security. Typically, a model security would rate about 95% of the slices in this new bond as investment grade. Under these high-rated slices are what are called mezzanine tranches, the lowest piece of the investment grade slices, and the lowest of these would be rated BBB-, or just above junk status. Typically, these mezzanine tranches will amount to about 4% of the$1 billion total value. Below the mezz pieces would be the lowest rated tranches, including the equity which absorbs the first losses if borrowers default. In this idealized securitization, the BBB- tranches might represent 1% of the total value of the bond and be buffered from losses by about 5% of equity and junk (which represents a computer model's estimate of the outer limit of realized losses).

So in this case, those buying the BBB- tranche are betting that losses for the entire billion dollars in loans never rise above $50 million over the life of the bond. Fair enough, but if they do rise higher, those holding this tranche lose money in a hurry. Let's say, losses rise to 8% (some predictions are even higher). In that case, the value of the BBB- tranche would be worthless, and losses would take out all of the BBB tranche and half the BBB+ tranche as well. That's the price of leverage.

But it gets worse.

Given the risks of subprime loans, many lenders could not afford to make large volumes of loans if they were forced to keep the loans on their own books since they would tie up too much capital. So they finance the loans with short term borrowing and then sell the mortgages into securitizations. The buyer -- the securitizer -- then puts together his MBS. To do this, the buyer has to sell the mezzanine tranches (many securitizers keep the equity themselves). These tranches buffer the whole structure from losses, and once they have been sold, it's easy to sell the higher rated stuff.

In recent years, the money funding these mezzanine tranches has come from a subset of another securitization called collateralized debt obligation or CDO. To form a CDO that invests in subprime mortgages, a securitizer will buy up mezzanine tranches from perhaps 100 different mortgage-backed securities, and then package them in different tranches similar to the way a mortgage backed security was packaged in the first place. Thus, some CDO's can consist entirely of BBB- tranches of subprime mortgage MBS, but still have 95% of their value rated investment grade.

Here is where leverage is the true killer. While an increase in realized losses from 5% to 8% will wreck havoc on a $1 billion MBS, even a smaller increase from say 5% to 6% losses could utterly destroy a CDO based on BBB- tranches where the leverage is over 100 to one. That additional one percent in losses will not only wipe out the bottom tranches of the CDO, but it will eat through most of the investment-grade slices as well. Bearing in mind that many hedge funds also used leverage (meaning that they borrowed most of the funds to buy a CDO tranche), it becomes obvious that even minor variations from the expected performance of subprime loans can have a huge impact on results.

This is why we are beginning to see some very sick whales, and what happens to them affects us all. Since $1 invested in a CDO ultimately funds $100 in subprime lending, this poisoning will reduce subprime lending (as much as 50% this year alone) sending further ripples through the housing market. Moreover, most Americans have exposure to this mess since pension funds accounted for 18% of purchases of the riskiest tranches of CDOs, and insurers and pension funds were investors in the investment-grade tranches as well.

So, given the stakes and leverage, why haven't we seen more blow-ups such as what happened to the Bear Stearns funds? Just wait. The system has built in lags in recognizing losses since the rating agencies don't have to downgrade until losses are actually realized, and that can take 18 months or more. Moreover, markets for these bonds are highly illiquid, and without trades, holders can maintain the illusion nothing bad has happened.

That's a dangerous game, however, because, investors don't have to wait for downgrades or price adjustments before pulling out of exposed hedge funds or otherwise dumping suspect investments. If a fund wants to take advantage of the illiquidity and lags in the system to maintain the illusion of good performance, it runs the risk of having to pay investors more than market value if they withdraw at the end of the quarter. That's probably why we've seen a number of funds halt withdrawals from investors in the past few weeks.

This sets up an interesting dynamic for the coming months. Typically, an investor gives 90 days notice before withdrawing money from a hedge fund, and the price for the redemption will be marked to the next quarter's performance. Clearly that puts some pressure on hedge funds to come clean in their accounting of performance in the quarter that just ended, but, because alarm about this market has soared in the past month, it puts even greater pressure on funds to accurately price for the third quarter ending in September. What's likely to happen is that unlevered funds will mark down their investments in this now-toxic stuff and pay off those who want to redeem.

Is there a way to avoid this day of reckoning? CDOs are actively managed, and in theory the manager can swap out badly performing investments for better stuff. The bad stuff has to be sold, however, and given the illiquidity of this market such sales could hasten the repricing of many billions of similar toxics sitting in portfolios. Also, subprime accounted for over 50% of the collateral for CDO's in 2006, and an asset class that disproportionately represented is not easy to swap out even in the best of times.

More likely, this toxics crises will play out in finance just as it does in nature -- with a mass die-off.

Anonymous said...

Leveraged-to-the-hilt financial mess that is so big that it is estimated to be in the $450 trillion range, which is roughly nine (pause) times (pause) global (pause) G (pause) D (pause) freaking P!!

*

This BIG picture here is NOT just the little CMO, its the whole hedge-derivative system, that has been running since LTMC collapse.

The CMO is estimated to be +$20 Trillion, of which 10% is considered worthless { $2 Trillion }.

Then there is the WHOLE CDO world, aka hedge,derivate,... Now that ALL pensions are starting to fold, and make granny calls this is going to effect the who whole system.

Everyone is now making the three month 'withdrawal' calls, and this paper cannot be traded like stock, its sold on the phone, and in May07, the offer's were averaging 10cents on the dollar.

It's NOT going to be pretty.

Anonymous said...


For all our vaunted foresight, it's interesting to see that when greed and self-interest come into play, collectively we're no smarter than fruit flies.


This is in reference to Juniper Ridge Bond Holders, aka toxic-paper, aka Fruit-flys.

Anonymous said...

Ohio cop & fire might lose +7% of principal ... This is only the beginning, time to sue moody's, ... 'AAA' bond's aren't what they used to be... Public pension funds always have first right of refusal, after all private pensions were looted years ago by KKR { and the Oregonian Newspaper... }

***

Subprime contagion?
Ohio's attorney general is investigating the role that credit-rating agencies like Moody's played in rubberstamping dicey bonds, report Fortune's Katie Benner and Adam Lashinsky.
FORTUNE Magazine
By Katie Benner and Adam Lashinsky, Fortune
July 5 2007: 11:16 AM EDT

(Fortune Magazine) -- While Bear Stearns is the most recent financial institution to find itself caught up in the subprime-mortgage quagmire, the three credit-rating agencies - Standard & Poor's, Moody's (Charts), and Fitch - may be the next ones to see their good names dragged through the mud.

The reason? Ohio attorney general Marc Dann is building a case against them based on the role he believes their ratings played in the marketing of risky mortgage-related securities.

"The ratings agencies cashed a check every time one of these subprime pools was created and an offering was made," Dann told Fortune, referring to the way the bond issuers paid to get their asset-backed securities (ABSs) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) rated by the agencies. These ratings run from AAA for debt with the lowest risk of default all the way down to noninvestment- grade bonds, which many pension funds are prohibited from purchasing in their charters. "[The agencies] continued to rate these things AAA . [So they are] among the people who aided and abetted this continuing fraud," adds Dann.

Ohio has the third-largest group of public pensions in the United States, and they've got exposure: The Ohio Police & Fire Pension Fund has nearly 7 percent of its portfolio in mortgage- and asset-backed obligations.

Anonymous said...


I've been looking at the unfolding debacle in subprime lending, a slow motion, far-reaching toxic poisoning, whose reach and impacts have been obvious for at least eighteen months to anyone not involved in making money off the origination, sale, and securitization of these subprime loans.


Now we know why 3/4 of Bend is in denial, this is the percentage of people involved in RE, MTG, and Construction.

Bend Economy Man said...

Paul, I think you and I and a bunch of people in the bubble-blogging world predicted a number of the things now taking place with interest rates headed up, inventory flooding the market even as construction has plummeted, risk being re-evaluated across the mortgage market, the recognition that the MBS market was out of control, and the resulting tightening credit environment, all pounding away at the housing market.

But no one has really figured out what happens then. Some say financial apocalypse, some say everything will be OK. Obviously a lot of people owe a lot of other people money, and the collateral ain't as good as it looked when the loan was made - and that goes for Joe Homeowner as well as Bear Stearns.

It's like in a Tarantino movie where everyone has his gun pointed at someone else's head. Everyone realizes that there's no point in everyone killing everyone else, and there's also no chance of making it out unharmed unless everyone puts his gun away.

Anonymous said...

-- Tetherow Resort and Spa, a luxury golf resort community under
construction in Bend, Oregon, scheduled to open in 2009.

Dolce International Launches Resort Destinations Division

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places to hold meetings and conferences," said Michael Quinn, Dolce Resort
Destination's regional director of sales and marketing. "In North America,
our newly formed resort division shows our commitment to grow and operate
inspired resort properties that rival our reputation for outstanding hotels
and conference centers."
Dolce Resort Destinations currently consist of:

-- Tetherow Resort and Spa, a luxury golf resort community under
construction in Bend, Oregon, scheduled to open in 2009.

BENDBUST said...


Some say financial apocalypse, some say everything will be OK.


'They' say it will be orderly like LTCM, but the problem is, granny didn't really get hurt on LTCM, this one is going to be VERY POLTICAL.
Which means the politicians will step in and do stupid SHIT, which is what caused the GREAT DEPRESSION.

BENDBUST said...


Obviously a lot of people owe a lot of other people money, and the collateral ain't as good as it looked when the loan was made - and that goes for Joe Homeowner as well as Bear Stearns.


A lot of heads ( CEO ), have already rolled. A lot of individual money has already been lost. A lot of SubPrime MTG outfits NO longer exist. A lot of pension funds will lose 5-10% of principal.

It's all slow motion.

At issue is ...

1.) The 'investors' want their money back, and to do so requires liquidation of the assets.

2.) The reset's on all the ARM's really haven't taken place. The real pain has yet to be felt at the local level.

3.) The massive layoff's from complete loss of RE, MTG, & Construction has NOT yet taken place.

We have a long way to go.

Is the world coming to an END, hell no, well maybe in cali, ...

Here in Bend, we'll see over-reaction, especially on condo's they'll go so low that I don't even care,... McMansions in Siberia DITTO.

Nice little homes close to town east or west, will go back to 2001 levels, kids will be able to buy homes again in 2+ years. This is ALL a good thing.

WRT ALL those RE&MTG having to leave dodge this is also a good thing.

The real wild-card is will the NEW ALL democratic congress over-react? Basically the congress has already said "They'll NOT bail out the investors", this is a good thing. Folks who did 'risk', should lose their principal.

Look at the stock market. Doing quite well, as MOST of the bad-news has already been played. There might even be bargains out there in CMO land???

BENDBUST said...


Is the world coming to an END, hell no, well maybe in cali, ...


Right Now I'm seeing 100's of applicants for rentals coming from cali, folks without jobs to Orygun.

They think they can just move here, get a place, and find a job. The majority of these people have lost their home, as they're about a year ahead of Bend on the bubble-burst.

What I'm trying to say, is RIGHT NOW we're already seeing a mass migration of peasant's not seen since the great dust-bowl depression. They're coming to Oregon because shit is cheap. Tired of paying $1500/mo for a little house, that they can get here for $800/mo. This is what they're all saying....

Anonymous said...

They shouldn't come to Oregon because shit is cheap. They should go to Detroit.

Anonymous said...

Hurray! Affordable housing is on its way! Time to stop renting and start watching where the buzzards are. :)

No, not REALLY gloating. Just glad I bought cheap, sold and rented. It makes the pickings easier. And extra, extra glad I don't depend upon construction or real estate for my income. (I KNEW there was a reason I stayed a cheapskate)

It's like when you watch a ship sinking - you're glad you got off the boat when you did, but find yourself crossing your fingers for your friends who wouldn't listen to your cries of alarm.

:(

Anonymous said...

They shouldn't come to Oregon because shit is cheap. They should go to Detroit.

***

It's still the gravy people, who want to be hip, but think that a job is every person's right.

What I find MOST surprising about the current rental cycle, is this stated-income notion, all the renters now think that I should believe they earn $50k/yr, because they say so, ohhh pleeeeeeze, You demand a tax stub or a pay check stub and they look in blank. There are lots of spoiled kids, but in a few years there's going to be a whole lot of depression children, this is a good thing, perhaps it will once again make the USA competitive.

For those that have cash, and can wait, just wait, because you'll be able to pick up a nice house next year for around 100K,

I really like duncan because he's the only real businessman here, another thing interesting about the new rental biz, is that you can no longer do full credit checks on people, you used to be able to find out if they were in debt to their arse, and knew if they could pay rent, now you can no longer get their credit report, what a fucking mess this is going to be,

It's like the system is doing everything it can to let crooks beat the system, and then we wonder why honest folks even bother, ... why bother?

Let's be honest here, its been said before and lets say it again, the reason the calis are coming besides its cheap is the race thing is at each others throat, yes detroit is cheap, but the race thing is even worse, oregon looks like fucking paradise, even without a job,

Thats the scary thing, why I don't want us to start blaming left vs right, top vs bottom, we must not attack one another, down in cali everyone is already at each others throat, not good, lets not bring that shit here,

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Excellent POST IHTBYB, its good to see some opinion, and NOT just numbers all the time.

Dang, dude. You should read more... all I do is TALK!

They shouldn't come to Oregon because shit is cheap. They should go to Detroit.

Detroit, Hell! Save your gas money, and stop in Burns!

I KNEW there was a reason I stayed a cheapskate

Don't know TT... you could be a little cheaper. Wait for those Awbrey shacks to hit $150/ft. All the cheapness of the Eastside, with all the snootiness of the West.

You gonna buy you a nice white suit, cowboy boots, a big ass Cadillac and throw silver dollars to the neighborhood urchins? Ohhhh, that's the life.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

It's like in a Tarantino movie where everyone has his gun pointed at someone else's head. Everyone realizes that there's no point in everyone killing everyone else, and there's also no chance of making it out unharmed unless everyone puts his gun away.

Ah yes, Reservoir Dogs. I never did understand how the last guy got shot. I mean, it's basically a bloodbath down to the last 2 guys, then one guy shoots the other guy. There should always be one guy left. Watched that 100X trying to figure out the double blast at the end.

Maybe it's like the "bite reflex" of The Shawshank Redemption: Your final compulsion is to kill or at least maim the bitch who shot you.

But no one has really figured out what happens then.

I guess I see us entering a "liquidity frenzy", where people are just selling any and everything. SUV's, furniture, jewelry... then houses.

We've been borrowing to supplement income for so long, that it's a lifestyle & "baked in".... people can't live without it. They'll need to sell stuff to pay debts. And they will just cycle through assets selling everything in sight, till they finally liquidate the house at rock bottom.

There appear to be people in this crisis mode now. Most are still gripped by the idea that they can still "make out" alright, and are trying to get that last big score by finding the Last Of The Bucket/Box Idiots. You can see these nuts with "Taking All Offers, Seller Desperate!", while they've priced their property at 200% of comps.

These people will be panicked out at rock bottom. I agreed with poster & Realtor "mstucker" over on BendBB: Price it 10% below comps, or expect to grow roots.

Anonymous said...



I guess I see us entering a "liquidity frenzy", where people are just selling any and everything. SUV's, furniture, jewelry... then houses


Fifteen years ago in CO & CA I saw pawn-shops on every corner, I don't see that yet in Bend, but then again, perhaps today its ALL done on EBAY??

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

There's a subdiv on the East side, Eagles Landing or something. Looks to be platted for 40-50 homes, and the Open House Sitter has essentially taken up residence. He must have done something wrong, cuz he's been sentenced to the RE-equivalent of Siberia.

Anyway, the original signs proudly proclaimed "$375,000 to $525,000" for 1,800 to 3,000+/- sf Vanilla shacks. About 4-6 wks ago, they got a little gold starburst sign attached to the main sign announcing that they were going to $329,900 on the small Gold Rush Specials. Today, it seems they realize that that ain't enough: Went to $299,900! That is a 20% haircut on brand spanking new homes.

And still, no one at that Open House that I could see. I can see these crappers hitting $275K in a few months, and even $249K in the depths of Winter 2007/2008.

I think there'll be a mass realization that this Spring/Summer has been a total bust, and these builders are able to bust out their gold starburst signs. Why?

Cuz Whitey Like Gold Starburst. That's Why.

Anonymous said...

Detroit, Hell! Save your gas money, and stop in Burns!

*

Yes, but our un-employed, broke, destitute yuppy would last about one day in Burns, those folks don't take kindly to free-loaders, ... It's a small town surrounded by lots of very empty desert.

Anonymous said...

Cuz Whitey Like Gold Starburst.

*

These projects are over, even if you have a nice smile, you cannot build developments anymore, and CONDOS, completely over.

At least in LA during the early 90's they burnt town entire tracts (palmdale) to make hollywood horror flicks, but who will come to Bend to purchase and burn down these east-side siberian mcMansions?

Even Pedro, Hermes, and Gonzales don't want no Siberian tract,... Gas costs too much, might as well camp out in the Badlands for free. Might as well rent in NWXC for $800/mo, even Siberia for $240k is still twice as much as a new NWXC rental.

Rent, after all we know these Siberian McMansions will be trading for less than $100k next year.

It's amazing that the 'investment' community didn't pull the plug on this stuff six months ago, ... goes to show you the 'smart' boyz, aren't that smart.

Anonymous said...

This is the BIGGEST news in the Bulletin today ... Sort of sad ..

***

More praise heaped on Bend
City makes Outside magazine's list of best places to live in Northwest
By Jeff McDonald / The Bulletin
Published: July 10. 2007 5:00AM PST


Yet another national publication has heaped accolades upon Bend, which is becoming known among the lifestyle set as a great place to work and play.

Santa Fe, N.M.-based Outside magazine, which has a circulation of roughly 650,000, ranked Bend in its August edition as the best place to live in the Pacific Northwest for cities with fewer than 100,000 people.

The rankings are based on a city's beauty, and recreational and job opportunities, according to Leslie Weeden, travel director for the outdoor lifestyle magazine.

Oregon's largest city, Portland, ranked No. 1 for larger cities with more than 100,000 people in the Pacific Northwest, according to the rankings.

"Bend is a growing city filled with our kinds of readers," Weeden said. "A lot are active in the outdoors. They are working hard, playing hard, drinking good beer and listening to good music. There also is good nightlife, which is key."

Weeden said Bend's rapid population and job growth, youthful demographics and "realistic housing prices" also contributed to its ranking.

The article divided the lower 48 states of the country into nine regions.The Pacific Northwest states were Oregon, Washington and Idaho, Weeden said.

Bend has been featured in several other regional and nationally circulated magazines this year, including Mountain Bike, Sunset and Via. The city also was listed in May among Inc. magazine's Top 10 Cities for Doing Business.

Last year, Outside featured Bend as the country's top trail-running destination in its annual rankings list.

The national attention has extended the advertising reach for the region, said Justin Yax, public relations director for DVA Advertising & Public Relations in Bend.

The increased editorial exposure may not prompt people to pick up and move to Bend, but it could bring more people to visit the area, Yax said.

Visitors fuel a tourism industry whose impact on the Central Oregon economy is estimated at $498 million a year.

DVA, which worked with Bend writer Tim Neville and Outside's editorial staff on content for the article, contracts with the Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau to promote tourism for the city.

"It reaches a demographic that most other advertising efforts don't reach because of a limited budget," Yax said. "Most of our advertising efforts don't go nationally. This is how we reach the national travel audience." The three-quarter-page article in Outside would have cost $71,720 as an advertisement, Yax said.

Recent media attention has translated to more business for Sunnyside Sports, which rents and sells bicycle and cross-country ski equipment and gear and has been located in west Bend since 1972.

"The magazines have been rating Bend highly for years, so we don't pay as much attention as we used to," said Don Leet, co-owner. "But there are more tourists who come into town that rent bikes and mention the articles. We definitely noticed."

For the last several years, the number of customers per year who came to Bend due to an article that they read has spiked, Leet said.

Last year alone, at least 15 customers said they read about his shop in a national publication, he said.

Anonymous said...

There used to be a joke, that when "Outside Magazine" listed your place it was the kiss of death, I had gone to Tulum,MX for years before it got listed in 'Outside', fucked in a year.

Like they say "Outside" has been praising Bend for years, the kiss has been placed, its game over.

For those that want to know the 'dark side' on this issue, "Outside" has a sister-publication called "Outside Business", only available to distributors and retailers of of Recreational crap.

The "Outside Business" is quite dark, tells the real story, the "Outside" is nice cheerful, I find it essential to read both, to know the real purpose of posts and demographics are. Basically PNW is home of REI, and there is a lot Recreational purchase here for a small town like Bend as you all know, we have a SHIT-LOAD of bike-stores,... and a REI.

My personal OPINION on the love affair of PNW by "Outside Company" is that they want more advertising from the PNW so they mention it frequently, sort of a feel good, I'm in the right place. Thus it doesn't mean much, lastly the demographics are getting old, more of the kids in PDX don't hike, they just hang at coffee shops in the AM, and pubs in the eve.

The fact that "Outside" rates PDX/BEND over&over has zero effect on us, at best the geriatric crowd looking for a NICE place to retire who has NEVER heard of Bend might bite, but those people are few. The people that I have met lately who are looking to retire in Oregon are looking more towards Eugene, where its cheap, and their is a college. There are good bike paths. Its very important for ACTIVE elderly to be around kids, and UofZero makes a good campus town for geezers.

Most elderly that are active find Bend depressing, because its NOT a college town, its a tourist town. The MOST ugly kind of tourist town with Tetherow Company selling exotic time-shares, and such on every corner.

Retiree's with money want a little recreation, and youthful population, and low expenses. Surprisingly I have found that MOST retiree's don't want to be in a gated geezer community, they don't want to be surrounded by the walking-dead. It's depressing.

Bend is going to skyrocket, even our water bill is going to go up from 2X-10X over the next five years to pay for the Juniper-Ridge infrastructure so Les Schwab doesn't have to pay, so that a dozen exec's don't have to commute to Prineville. Everything in Bend is going to go up to pay for the boon-doggles, that our City Council has signed up for the in the last five years.

Bend downtown has gone from HW shops and sleezy bars, to high restaurants & art shops, Now its going to time-share sales offices, and fast-food taco shacks.

Sometimes it seems we have a hundred bike shops in town, how in the hell do even 1/2 stay in business? Duncan where are you?

Anonymous said...

The people that I have met lately who are looking to retire in Oregon are looking more towards Eugene, where its cheap, and their is a college. There are good bike paths. Its very important for ACTIVE elderly to be around kids, and UofZero makes a good campus town for geezers.

This is CRITICAL on this WHOLE Juniper-Ridge University of Badlands debate.

Let's pick on Davis, California. Beautiful, bike path's, flat, and centrally located college campus. Shop's downtown are all interesting, and best of all like real college towns, lots of cheap good places to eat.

Now let's move to Eugene, college centrally located, ok places to eat, great bike paths along the rive. This is what a college town is ALL about, just like Flagstaff, AZ.

Now lets go to FUCKING BEND Oregon, the city-college up on the hill is built on a fucking 45 degree slope, its NOT pedestrian friendly, what were they thinking? Now lets jump to fucking Juniper-Ridge, out in the fucking middle of the Badlands ( Its just a reference ) Now lets build a campus, its going to be fifty years before there is charm around this hypothetical campus,...

There is NO way in hell that Bend will ever be a desirable college town, the college would need to be central and have 100 acre's. There would have to be a nice established 50+ year downtown around the campus. There must be trees & shade. Juniper-Ridge is only going to have rocks and tumble-weeds.

I'm going into this detail, because there are still some who want to dump money into a University out in the middle of the fucking desert, and think it will make something of Bend. I can think of NO University in America out in the middle of fucking NO WHERE desert that is TOP-NOTCH. Well I can think of ONE. It's called University of New Mexico @ Socorro its a nice campus, out in the fucking desert an hour or more south of Albuquerque. Kids that go there study, as there is NOTHING else to do.

Bend is an old washed-up mill town, that had ALL its natural resources purged years ago. There was NO planning, it just involved into what it is, e.g. Redmond with Drake Park. Yes, its close to Century-Drive, which is nice when its open in the summer.

I look at the beautiful PLAN RFQ for Juniper Ridge and I think it was a bad idea to place this in the middle of NO-WHERE. What about downtown? The city could do an emminent domain on franklin/newport-10th/14th, NO better yet, what if ALL the fucking Condos and SHOPS hadn't fucked up the OLD-MILL, what if ALL the plans of Juniper-Ridge RFQ had been applied to the Old-Mill area, after all its several 100 acre's. It's in the middle of town, and its basically flat, its would have Bend into one of the GREATEST FUCKING college towns in the world.

BUT NO, some dumb fucking two bit whores, took the old-mill and made it into shitty little shops surrounded by dumb fucking condo's and NOW it all sits empty.

In ten years the Old-MILL hond-condo-whore-canyon will be all crack apts, and the city may be able to condemn the place and start over, PLEEEZE hold off on Juniper-Ridge out in the desert, and pleeeeee condemn the fucking Old-Mill today, raze what you can... Remember all those fucking building's near REI are just MTG & realty shops, they're all going to be empty.

The OLD-MILL area will be a great campus, and then prof's can walk to work, NO fucking prof wants to be out in the fucking desert near the Redmond Airport.

I'll go on, but I think is my new rant. Condemn the condo-canyon, its all great student housing, the MTG&RE building's will be class rooms. The core REI area can be administration. Geezers and kids and FUCKING DOGS can walk the river boardwalk what a fucking dream.

Lastly, some will say, but the cost of land is so high near the Old-Mill for the hightech startup's. I say this as an old entrepreneur, "We don't fucking care, in the High-Tech biz, the fucking building is one of our lowest costs". Firstly, there must be a world-class campus near where people WANT to WORK & LIVE.

Let's make the Juniper-Ridge RFQ plan real, lets make Bend the kind of world-class place, but lets NOT do it under the flight-path of the Redmond Airport.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Weeden said Bend's rapid population and job growth, youthful demographics and "realistic housing prices" also contributed to its ranking.

I like the "realistic housing prices" in quotes. Like they know that's crap. Not a lot of research by Outside mag into why Bend is the #1 overvalued MSA in the country.

And I agree, this feels like the "Sports Illustrated" curse. Or Time magazine. You could just watch a company or industry implode after a Time piece.

BilboBend said...

I agree, this feels like the "Sports Illustrated" curse. Or Time magazine. You could just watch a company or industry implode after a Time piece.


*****


Buy on Rumor, Sell on News,


What is MOST interesting is timing, this "Outside Rank" is the top news today coming out of "The Bulletin", they are really trying to make the best of things.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

what if ALL the plans of Juniper-Ridge RFQ had been applied to the Old-Mill area, after all its several 100 acre's. It's in the middle of town, and its basically flat, its would have Bend into one of the GREATEST FUCKING college towns in the world.

Yup, agreed. We had our chance, but now RE downtown will never go that route, too expensive plus none left. Old Mill would've been a killer Univ setting.

Anonymous said...

Lots of good stuff.

Young debtors. This is a big deal. It's easy to heap hate on these kids who think they can charge their whole life on their credit card, but that's what we taught them. They aren't dumb, they're just uneducated. Anyone born in 1980 or later is so far removed from stories of the great depression and memories of their parents running out of money at the end of the paycheck cycle that they really have no idea what money is.

We have to start teaching kids how to save for things instead of buy on debt.

As for Eugene, yes, the bike trails are great. Yes, the college is beautiful. But I can't see too many Californians liking it there for long. The drizzle feels endless by May. You can go weeks without seeing the sun. I had to use one of those special sun lamp things when I lived there or I couldn't get out of bed. Also, the night life is weak, which is crazy for a college town.

My aunt was in California last fall. She never heard anyone say they were aiming for Eugene. She heard Bend about a dozen times, and Medford a few. Personally, I wish they would start saying Eugene instead of Bend.

As for the University in Bend, it should absolutely be on the river. Out in the desert is a silly place for one.

--TT

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Speaking of Well Researched Articles Regarding Bend's Realistic Housing Prices And Excellent Banking Institutions, here's something in Forbes online:

Four Financials Fit For The Masters

First line:

Cascade Bancorp: Headquartered in Washington state, this 91-year-old small-cap ($663 million) has 20 offices in the Puget Sound region. It has a variety of personal and business offerings, including banking, lending, and investment services.


Uhhhhhhhhhhh... heh... heh.... heh.... uhhhhh

Like, uhhhhh, that must be someone else, cuz, uhhhhh Cascade is HQ'd in Bend. Uhhhhhh, heh.... heh... uhhh

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Funny that you can see how little fact checking really goes into this sort of thing. Outside says we have "realistic housing prices", even though we're The Top overvalued housing market in the country.

And this Forbes piece, you can tell that guy just typed in "Cascade Bank" into google, clicked the top result, and plotzed it all out, never checking to see if he got it right, which he didn't.

On the upside, they always could get a job at The Bulletin.

bendbutt said...

Let's pick on Davis, California. Beautiful, bike path's, flat, and centrally located college campus. Shop's downtown are all interesting, and best of all like real college towns, lots of cheap good places to eat.

What BS. Beautiful? Davis is out in the middle of the flat featureless central valley. Weather? Tule fog in the winter and oppressive heat in the summer. Davis used to be a nice college town 20+ years ago, but now it's a bedroom community for Sacramento and the Bay Area.

Anonymous said...

Oh you guys don't get it, try as you might. A new home development just went up near where I live in the Bay Area. Houses ranging from 1.5 million to 2.9 million. Bend's prices are a footnote. It might seem a lot of money to you where your prices are at, but from where I'm standing they are an afterthought. Your median is about 2X income for most people I know. Whether they fall or not makes little difference in whether or not I can buy.

Duncan McGeary said...

2Xincome for most people I know.

Not around here.

Just as long as you realize you will be living off the equity you bring here.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Oh you guys don't get it, try as you might.

Right. Buddy, the whole "Your homes are cheaper than the homes are where I live means YOUR HOMES ARE CHEAP" argument is so fatally flawed, I don't know where to start. That argument leaves ALL MARKETS cheap with respect to ONE MARKET: The most expensive housing market on Earth, where ever that is... probably the kitchy outskirts of London somewhere.

OK, Burns OR is dead cheap. But hold on to your panties: Burns is cheap for a reason. It's economically depressed.

Oy. How many nuts have to have this idiotic argument shot down, try as I might? Geez... yet another reason we need to build a freakin' wall South of Klamath Falls...

It might seem a lot of money to you where your prices are at, but from where I'm standing they are an afterthought.

OK, pull your head out of your myopic ass. World doesn't revolve around you. Thanks for your mind-blowing "insight".

Anonymous said...

Your median is about 2X income for most people I know.

*

Whoopy-Poohpy OUR income in Bend averages around $7/hr. If you work two jobs, like MOST people have for the past forty years here, then you income is median.


The median income for a household in the BEND was $40,857, and in 2006 the median income for a family of four is $58,800. Males had a median income of $33,377 versus $25,094 for females.


Let's take our MR-BIG-DICK here from cali, here in Orygun his median of $33k would get him what in the BAY???

Anonymous said...

Today New York Times has an excellent cover on the complete fucking collapse of Atlanta housing.

Foreclosure auctions are selling 30 cents on the dollar.

Good read, that applied to Bend, and the article says its coming means our $360k median, will soon be $120k, as we have been saying.

Anonymous said...

IHTBYB a few days ago hell, yesterday I posted that brand new Tetherow press release, why in the hell did they issue it? It doesn't say anything.

Most interesting the tetherow bend website is dead, my guess is the plug is being pulled???

Anonymous said...


Davis used to be a nice college town 20+ years ago, but now it's a bedroom community for Sacramento and the Bay Area.


Are we talking about the same place? I take the train down there all the time from here, and attend scientific workshops and meetings. The train goes right into town. The bike paths go for a zillion miles. Anybody that doesn't love that campus must be a quad locked in auto all day long. Get off your ass and go ride around the campus on a bike, you couldn't even see it all in one day, it must be at least five miles square with a couple dozens miles of bike paths.

I love that campus, and shit the school has its own micro-brewery and winery,... Top notch scientists. You may think its day is over, but kids fight like hell to get into UC-DAVIS, getting an education there means something.

Anonymous said...

As for Eugene, yes, the bike trails are great. Yes, the college is beautiful. But I can't see too many Californians liking it there for long - TT

**

TT, The retiree's I'm seeing are coming from the mid-west they travel all over the PNW to retire. Two top spots are Eugene ( if you like to bike ) and Anacortes ( if you like to fish or boat ).

Given that ALL the calis I see coming up here are broke, I wouldn't call them 'retirees' I'd call them walmart or costco greeters'.

Anonymous said...


We had our chance, but now RE downtown will never go that route, too expensive plus none left. Old Mill would've been a killer Univ setting.


It's NOT TOO LATE as I have written.

The condo's will all foreclose, the commercial is ALL MTG&RE ( CLOSING ), the place is going to be empty. It will all sell for 30 cents on the dollar or less.

I just wish we in Oregon had ONE fucking rich person like Bill Gates that wanted to build a real fucking legacy institution in Oregon.

The chance is there its NOT time to give. The EMPIRE ( star wars ) has fucked itself, we have seen it coming. It's never too late to turn city council away from the dark-side. The RFQ was written by people with a heart. The dark-side folks will bail now that they have lost their money.

This is perfect time to turn OLD-MILL into the most beautiful college town in the world. The high-tech breeding was be dynamite as the post-doc's would never want to leave. Hell I myself would invest in incubator startup's if I thought for a minute someone with a fucking scientific brain in this town was actually serious about this cheap talk thrown around all the time about how we want high-tech.

What the fuck did we do? Our high-tech Juniper-Ridge 'ANCHOR' is a two-bit tire marketing outfit that is ONLY famous for giving away free beef ( freezer burnt 1/2" steak ).

I say let Les Schwab have their BadLand office, but we get Old-Mill for the UofO@Bend.

Obi Won Kenobi said...

Luke,

Every thing is going to plan.

Soon the Old-Mill condo-whores will be bankrupt. The Empire is bankrupt.

The UBS bankers are fleeing Bend, nobody now want their MTG-BOND to have "bend,oregon" any where in their portfolio.

The resistance will take the Old-Mill and turn it into a great University.

Anonymous said...

Median Bend income means nothing. Bend prices are based on wealthy immigration from other states and most of those people don't need jobs in the local economy.

Anonymous said...

Poor dirtbags from Cali and everywhere else will also always find Bend appealing. Rent is cheap and you can climb and snowboard here. For laid back 20 somethings, that is all you need.

Duncan McGeary said...

Whenever someone says that "most people don't need jobs in the local economy..." run, don't walk the other way.

BS. BS. to anyone who says "they don't need the money...."

There are very few of those people around, and those that exist don't partake of the local economy, either because they're retired and don't need anything, or because they're so rich that they would never buy in a podunk town like Bend. Visit, sure. Have a second home, great. Buy anything?

We aren't Aspen, buddy.

Bend Economy Man said...

If you read through to the meat of the Bulletin piece on the Outside magazine "coup" for Bend, you'll see that there's essentially an admission that the Outside "Best Places to Live" piece on Bend was more-or-less ghostwritten by the Bend tourism promotion authority.

DVA [Advertising & Public Relations], which worked with Bend writer Tim Neville and Outside's editorial staff on content for the article, contracts with the Bend Visitor & Convention Bureau to promote tourism for the city.

An interesting and rare insight into the incestuous process. So you have an ad agency working for the Bend tourism bureau in direct contact with the editors of the magazine? And who hired Bend writer Tim Neville? DVA or Outside? I guess you can guess my guess.

I don't want to make too big a deal out of the process though. Obviously in terms of getting the word out about Bend, room tax revenues are being reinvested pretty well.

I can imagine that it's not exactly a bought-and-paid-for piece. I'm sure if the tourism bureau brought a couple of Outside editors here for an all-expenses-paid weekend, put them up in McMenamins, took them out to dinner and a couple of comped rafting trips or mountain-bike tours, the editors came away with an awesome impression.

Bend clearly has a quite sophisticated, well-oiled machine for promoting Bend as a place to move to. And compare that with the ham-fisted attempts to woo employers here. The only real success we've heard about in that regard is inviting Les Schwab and it's lawyers to make the 45-minute drive over to give our City Council a good reaming.

It'd be interesting to find out whether city laws allow the room-tax revenue to be invested in promoting something other than Bend as a place to move to or visit. It seems a diversity-hindering move for a tourism/newcomer-dependent city to take room-tax revenue and put it right back into promoting the same industry that generated that revenue. Doesn't sound like a very "taxing" tax, does it? If my income tax went to fund an effort to increase my own income, I certainly would have a different view of it.

Anonymous said...

Being rich in Bend is easy compared to Aspen, where the bar is much higher. Yet, you can have more or less the same benefits. No one moves to Aspen for the local jobs. Likewise, a large contingent move to Bend and don't need your $7 an hour jobs. Bend isn't Aspen, you're right. It's much cheaper and probably always will be. Bend is an easy place for millionaires, Aspen requires multi-millions.

Duncan McGeary said...

"Bend is an easy place for millionaires..."

Not exactly a basis for a local economy. Great for the millionaires....but how many are there, how many want to live here, and how many are dumb enough to buy now when the prices are dropping?

Anonymous said...


It's much cheaper and probably always will be. Bend is an easy place for millionaires, Aspen requires multi-millions.


I really wish the newbies would read old posts, the whole issue of Aspen keeps coming up. The fact is that if there was a galaxy that had two stars Bend & Aspen would each be on opposite sides.

Aspen is now a place for Billionaires this is fact. If you didn't know this, then you don't know Aspen.

Regarding our place for 'Millionaires" that doesn't mean shit these days. A million dollars is nothing.

If you really think you have enough cash that you could live anywhere in the world, and live off your cash. Please somebody out there tell me why in hell would that place be Bend, Oregon. I only want people who have traveled all over the world to answer this question.

BilboBend said...

The central oregon research triangle "Madras-Prineville-Bend" is all centered around the HUB of the known Universe ..
400+ stores and over $1.5 billion in annual sales...You're right on the money, Les Schwab is a "two bit tire marketing outfit in Prineville."


Known to the local's as Central-Oregon Reasearch Triangle. The HUB is surrounded by the three greatest institutions in America.

1. The Natural & Artificial Rubber Polytechnic Institute.

{ Prineville, in honor of our 're-tread' founder, the father of the "retread guarantee" }

2. Bend Tire Changing and Rotation trade school.

{ Madras, Oregon }

3. The Free Beef School of PR and Marketing.

{ Bend, Oregon, the home of condo-whore, free beef to every condo purchaser ( 1/2" freezer-burnt steaks ) }

BilboBend said...

We aren't Aspen, buddy. - duncan

*

Thanks duncan, remember ALL this coming from a man that's been doing retail in this little desert town for 30+ years.

Anonymous said...

That place is Bend, Oregon for some people because:

1) It is an outdoor playground. Great skiing, cycling, fishing, climbing, golfing etc.

2) It is large enough to have a few good restaurants and some cultural attractions.

3) It requires far less money to have this lifestyle in Bend than most other places that offer it in the West.

Anonymous said...


Poor dirtbags from Cali and everywhere else will also always find Bend appealing. Rent is cheap and you can climb and snowboard here. For laid back 20 somethings, that is all you need.


Yes, but NOW nobody can afford a lift pass. The free shuttle is now $5 each way.

In the day you could sell burrito's the mexicans have all those jobs. The only good mex places anymore in town are 100% mex owned. They would never in hell hire a 20 yr white trash kid.

Our 'laid back 20 yr old' is fucked in Bend, OR. He can steal bikes, and sell them on ebay. I can't think of any other entrepreneurial activity in Bend these days for Board Bum's.

Anonymous said...

The pass price is a bummer, no doubt. But if you get a part time job at the hill, I think you can get the pass for free? That is how I did it when I ski bummed in Colorado back in the 90's.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

If you really think you have enough cash that you could live anywhere in the world....

Yup, me & the wife like to play "If we won the lottery", and the first thing we'd do is get the hell out of here!

Bend's nice... but there is a lifetime of WAY nicer, if you got the money.

Anonymous said...

Ok, the RE whores are hard@work today. We're told the following are the reasons to move to Bend.


1) It is an outdoor playground. Great skiing, cycling, fishing, climbing, golfing etc.

2) It is large enough to have a few good restaurants and some cultural attractions.

3) It requires far less money to have this lifestyle in Bend than most other places that offer it in the West.


1) It is an outdoor playground. Great skiing, cycling, fishing, climbing, golfing etc.


{ Name them exactly, be specific. What you have written is just a tourist statement. }

2) It is large enough to have a few good restaurants and some cultural attractions.

{ Name them specifically }

3) It requires far less money to have this lifestyle in Bend than most other places that offer it in the West.

{ BULLSHIT, Bend is one of the MOST expensive places to live in the West. The ONLY thing cheap here is RENT because there is a glut of homes. By definition, your a rich retiree ( You don't have to work ), and thus cheap rentals, don't make things cheap for you, because you don't rent. }

bendbutt said...

Most interesting the tetherow bend website is dead, my guess is the plug is being pulled???

More BS. Tetherow lot sales start next month with prices in the $300K to $700K range.

I love that campus, and shit the school has its own micro-brewery and winery,... Top notch scientists. You may think its day is over, but kids fight like hell to get into UC-DAVIS, getting an education there means something.

That's why I went to college in Davis. It's still a very good school, but Davis' days as a small college town are over, the population has grown and the commuters have moved there (and to Woodland and Vacaville, etc.). It's a good place for road biking (try the Davis Double Century sometime), but not for mountain biking. It's hard to imagine someone from Bend who enjoys the outdoors living in Davis because skiing and other recreational activities we take for granted require a long drive from Davis.

Anonymous said...


The pass price is a bummer, no doubt. But if you get a part time job at the hill, I think you can get the pass for free?


Let me tell you a little story.

1.) Every one that I know has a free pass.

2.) Those that I meet at Deschutes, ... that actually paid for a season pass all have told me "never again", most lifts are closed weekdays.

Who in the hell pays for the place? They make ALL the little bit of money they do on 1-2 holiday weekends. Our ONE Bend ski-resort is staying in business only because somebody is willing to throw good money after bad.

Anonymous said...


It's still a very good school, but Davis' days as a small college town are over, the population has grown and the commuters have moved there


I'm not talking about the suburbs of Sacramento, I'm talking about the first little mile perimeter around the campus. That's the nice part of Davis.

The suburbs of Davis are like cali suburbs anywhere, .e.g. NWXC, Shevlin, they all suck.

Anonymous said...


Most interesting the tetherow bend website is dead, my guess is the plug is being pulled???

More BS. Tetherow lot sales start next month with prices in the $300K to $700K range. - BENDBUTTHEAD


The question was "Why did they issue the press release", we didn't ask how much the ASK prices were.

bendbutt said...

I'm not talking about the suburbs of Sacramento, I'm talking about the first little mile perimeter around the campus. That's the nice part of Davis.

Now you're talking. If you like Davis so much how about you move there and spend the rest of your life inside the first little mile perimeter around the campus? It's a win-win situation -- you'll be happy and everybody in Bend will be happy too.

BilboBend said...

Shit wrong again, I thought ALL the bad news was out there, It turns out that the front page New York Time article was read by grand-ma. She said SELL, and they sold.

*

U.S. Stocks Fall, Led by Banks, Retailers on Housing Slump Woes

By Eric Martin

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Builders, banks and retailers sent the U.S. stock market tumbling for the first time in six days on increasing evidence the housing slump is depressing earnings.

Home construction shares fell to the lowest in almost four years after D.R. Horton Inc. said a decrease in orders will lead to a third-quarter loss. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. dropped after Standard & Poor's said mortgage defaults may grow. Sears Holdings Corp., the biggest U.S. department-store company, slid the most since 2003 on its forecast profits will shrink.

Both the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index posted their worst decline in a month after concerns mounted the housing recession will hamper earnings as companies start to report second-quarter results this week. Oil's rise above $73 a barrel also dimmed the outlook for profits.

``If you have significant defaults in the subprime area and weak retail reports, that does spook people,'' said Damon Barglow, who helps manage $1.8 billion at Eastern Investment Advisors in Boston. ``One could paint a weak outlook for the consumer, which is the main driver of the economy.''

The S&P 500 lost 21.73, or 1.4 percent, to 1510.12. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 148.27, or 1.1 percent, to 13,501.70. The Nasdaq composite slid 30.86, or 1.2 percent, to 2639.16.

Anonymous said...

Oh geez, just this once I will answer this knee-jerk post. "name them specifically". I wonder where I'd go skiing near Bend, please someone tell me. Or mountain biking for that matter, no where to do that anywhere is there? Or climbing, after all I climbed all 10,000 routes at Smith in one weekend, and put up a new route on Monkey Face harder than To Bolt or Not to Be. What a choss pile isn't it?

How about the restaurants downtown, do I really have to name them for you? I like Toomies, Pizza Mondo, Victorian Cafe, the breweries. Good enough for me.

And no, no no Bend is in no way shape or form one of the most expensive places to live in the west, except western Oregon. You must live a truly sheltered life to believe that. Try Tahoe, Flagstaff, Mammoth, Durango, Taos or other towns with similar outdoor opportunities.

The Oracle said...

As Buffett aptly said,

"Price is what you pay; value is what you get."

Just like a stock, property is undervalued at one price, fairly valued at another price, and overvalued at yet another.

The goal is to buy the first, avoid the second, and sell the third.

Maintain this discipline all the time, and you will never have to worry about what cycle of the market you're in.

Anonymous said...

How about the restaurants downtown, do I really have to name them for you? I like Toomies, Pizza Mondo, Victorian Cafe, the breweries.

*

Too much shit today, we asked the rhetorical question "If you won the lottery, why would you choose Bend", then we were told explicitly Restaurants. Then we asked them to be named and we get the above.

It's fairly clear that our RE whore didn't win the lottery.

In summary, nobody that ever won the lottery came to Bend, Oregon.

bendbutt said...

Too much shit today, we asked the rhetorical question "If you won the lottery, why would you choose Bend", then we were told explicitly Restaurants.

There's that "royal we" again! Tell us, Bendbust, who do you speak for besides yourself? Do you speak for IHTBYB? Do you speak for BEM? C'mon, fess up.

Anonymous said...


Try Tahoe, Flagstaff, Mammoth, Durango, Taos or other towns with similar outdoor opportunities.


Tahoe had many major home-less resort(s) lakeside. Very cheap property.

I own property near Flagstaff, and its cheap, and far cheaper than Bend for a beer & burger. It's a University town, it HAS to be cheap to stay in business.

Bend Oregon is NOT cheap. Rentals are cheap, every thing else is dear.

Anonymous said...

Hey want to become a Mortgage Originator?

Originator licenses must be renewed every two years, normally July 1. This year, the renewal date was moved to Oct. 30 to give companies more time to comply with the new rules, which will require them to have a net worth of $250,000, a surety bond of $50,000 and approval by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. The application fee is $425, but Aug. 1, it goes up to $2,125.

IHTBYpussy said...

There's that "royal we" again!

*

Would you prefer the royal-EYE?

BENDBUST said...

Today the death warrant was signed on the MTG industry. Hopefully all the bad news is now out.

"More mortgage fraud will be uncovered as the tide goes out."

The incrimination begins. Blame the little guy, not the Bankers.

***

S&P finally says subprime is mostly junk
Commentary: New methodology is death knell for the troubled industry
By MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:51 PM ET Jul 10, 2007

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Standard & Poor's just drove a huge harpoon into the heart of the mortgage credit bubble, and it's going to take a long time to clean up the mess once the beast finally dies.
S&P, one of the three main credit-rating agencies that served as enablers of the subprime-mortgage boom, announced Tuesday that it would lower its ratings on 612 bonds, a small portion of the mortgage-backed securities it had given its seal of approval to. See full story.
But the bigger news is that S&P isn't going along with the charade anymore. S&P said it would change its methodology for rating hundreds of billions of dollars in residential-mortgage-backed securities. And it would review its ratings on hundreds of billions of dollars in the more complex collateralized debt obligations based on those subprime loans.
A lot of debt will be downgraded to junk status. A lot of that debt will have to be sold at fire-sale prices. A lot of pension funds and hedge funds that once thrived on the high returns they could get from investing in subprime junk will now lose a lot of money.
S&P's announcement is a death warrant for the subprime industry. No longer will mortgage brokers be able to help buyers lie their way into a home. Fewer stressed homeowners will be able to refinance their mortgage, thus extending and exacerbating the housing bust.
"We do not foresee the poor performance abating," S&P said.
Prices will fall, and foreclosures will rise. More mortgage fraud will be uncovered as the tide goes out.
And hedge funds will have to find another way to beat the market -- if they survive this blow, that is.

BENDBUST said...


There's that "royal we" again! Tell us, Bendbust, who do you speak for besides yourself? Do you speak for IHTBYB? Do you speak for BEM? C'mon, fess up.


We are ALL ( me, you, & them ) the same person. Represent them all we do. Thus, the "Royal We".

BENDBUST said...


But the bigger news is that S&P isn't going along with the charade anymore.


You have to love this, when its news that the charade is over.

Does this apply to DUBYA and the republican administration, are they too now going to end the charade??

How about the City of Bend are they going to end the charade?

Are the condo-whores now going to come clean?

bendbutt said...

We are ALL ( me, you, & them ) the same person. Represent them all we do. Thus, the "Royal We".

That sounds more like the Borg than like Bilbo.

BENDBUTTHEAD said...

We are ALL ( me, you, & them ) the same person. Represent them all we do. Thus, the "Royal We".

That sounds more like the YODA than like Bilbo.

Anonymous said...

>>Too much shit today, we asked the rhetorical question "If you won the lottery, why would you choose Bend", then we were told explicitly Restaurants.

Good lord I hate the Bend restaurants.

--TT

eyepublius said...

Significantly Brooks Resources, as reported in The Bull the other day, has pulled out of the "Miller's Landing" project for "upscale" townhomes on the river and has sold its interest to another developer who wants to put up less expensive condos. This is the first such retrenchment I'm aware of. Meanwhile I have it on good authority that you can't find a decent rental in this town for love or money. Maybe people moving into the area see home prices are headed downward and are waiting for the bottom.

Anonymous said...

>>Meanwhile I have it on good authority that you can't find a decent rental in this town for love or money.

There are plenty of rentals up for sale with the renters still inside. I feel for those people if they lose their place to live, because it'll be hard to find another one now.

Same thing happened last year in June. In fact, I got kicked out by the owner so they could sell their house if you remember my sob moving story from last year. Hard as hell to find a 4 bdrm that would take pets.

And then in the fall there were rentals all over.

BENDBUST said...

The stage is shifting the blame-game has started. Note that the lead of this blog on the subject of wide-scale CDO's, not just little MTG-CDO's(CMO's). This article is quite interesting as the CDO market is imploding. The thing we with ALL this stuff is there is NO market, its all on the phone. Grandma wants OUT, and like they say they're not designed to be sold early. Like all good ponzi schemes your supposed to wait until the money is gone, and they call you.

People who have their OWN money in any kind of CDO are now wanting redemption, and its ALL the media's fault.

***

Chief executives warn of CDO meltdown Renée Schultes
11 Jul 2007

The problems being experienced in structured credit markets have highlighted the risks of selling complex investment products, according to fund management chief executives.

With collateralized debt obligations backed by US sub-prime mortgages running into trouble, fund managers at the Fund Forum said the situation resembled the UK’s split capital investment trust scandal of 2002.

Martin Gilbert, chief executive of Aberdeen Asset Management, said: “There’s an uncanny resemblance between split capital and CDOs. But CDOs have been sold to professional investors. The mistake we made was selling yield (through split capital trusts) to private investors.”

Aberdeen, the largest managers of split capital trusts sold its retail funds business to New Star Asset Management after the collapse of the sector. “In hindsight it was the best thing for us because it allowed us to concentrate on the institutional business,” he added.

Anthony Bolton, investment director at Fidelity International, echoed Gilbert’s concerns about CDOs, in particular in how they are valued. “These CDOs are based on a model, and the model is based on a set of assumptions. If something changes in the world and the assumptions prove wrong, the models and the structures will be wrong. It reminds me a lot of split-level investment trusts,” he said.

However, Richard Wohanka, chief executive of Fortis Investments, one of the largest CDO managers in Europe, said risks had been overstated. “The press has gone berserk on the CDO sub-prime debacle. A CDO is a highly illiquid bond and the premium on pricing is the compensation for the illiquidity. If people buy the CDO to hold it to maturity, it will pay out. However, if you have to sell you will probably suffer,” he said.

Jeroen Bakker, head of asset and mortgage backed investments at Faxtor Securities, said: “A CDO that is well structured shouldn’t get the blame for what is happening at Bear Stearns.”

CDOs typically have a life of five to eight years. Several hedge funds, including two managed by Bear Stearns and two in London, have reported losses on US sub-prime securities when delinquency rates rose and house prices fell.

Anonymous said...

I knew CDOs were going to hedgies and pension funds and investment banks. I had no idea they were being sold to retail investors.

Anonymous said...

Good lord I hate the Bend restaurants.

--TT

**

Once again, thanks for the confirm TT, me too, I think that Bend has some of the worst collection of restaurants in the Gastronomical Universe.

I like Super-Burrito.

The problem with Bend is ALL business is in July/Aug to the GOLFERS ( real shit-heads ). They don't eat, they're all rush-limbaugh fat arses that drink their meal, and thus it don't matter, every restaurateur in Bend knows they're only coming once, thus serve them pig-slop.

TOOMIES what a shit-hole, and those stupid pathetic hostesses there. Anybody that likes Toomies doesn't even know what the fuck thai food is. This would be like saying the TacoBell is mexican.

Too much here has already been written about our Bend as Aspen Gastronomy. Fact is in Bend the only place thats worth the price is super-burrito. Every place else isn't worth the price, the mondo salad is an exception and the pizza. ALL else sucks.

In the food sense Bend is very much like any other cali town with a Red-Robin.

Anonymous said...

I had no idea they were being sold to retail investors.

*

Remember what the article said, they're not supposed to be redeemed early, thus in order to dump them you had to sell them to some other sucker for 'face value'.

There has been an orderly cleansing of 'toxic-waste' since xmas. A lot of 'high-income funds' and 'smart-funds' were created in the last six months just to repackage and sell this shit to the public so that UBS could get it off the books before the shit hit the fan.

This is why UBS fired the CEO last week, because they lost several funds, so did Bear-Stearns lose a couple Billion Funds a few weeks ago, because after May07 the stuff started getting an offer of only 10 cents on the dollar.

The public learned of the sell-off in Feb07, it takes 3 months to redeem a hedgey. When jun07 hit there was no market they were only getting offer's of 10 cents on the dollar, thus bear-stearns stepped in to cover their stuff.

Everyone started asking for their money back in Feb07, its now been 90 days, and buyers are only offering 10 cents on the dollar. What would you do if you were in the junk-bond-mutual-fund-biz? I say a lot of folks will be jumping out of windows.

In the following week's so did UBS-Paine/Warburg. By July07 everybody now knows the first noisy folks get their money back, the late folks that another story.

Most pensions have less than 10% exposure to the toxic-waste, so there will be loss of principle, there will be lots of redemption.

For greedy granny's that bought into repackaged 'High Interest' smart-bond-funds in the last six months, there could be lots of folks with zero principle. Granny was told this toxic-shit was grade 'aaa' backed by fliper-bait, thus she's going to sue, its going to be a good time to be a lawyer for a long time.

The magnitude of the angry granny earthquake is going to be quite large.

Anonymous said...


“A CDO that is well structured shouldn’t get the blame for what is happening at Bear Stearns.”


A Bend Condo-Whore that is well structured shouldn't get the blame for the absence of liquidity in Bend condos.

We can't blame the condo-whore, the city, the bank (UBS), the builder? Who can we blame?

I think what they mean by "structuring" is putting the lipstick on the pig correctly.


“A CDO-PIG that is well painted shouldn’t get blamed for the fact that buyers are only offering 10 cents on the dollar.”


I thought the charade was over?

Anonymous said...


“The press has gone berserk on the CDO sub-prime debacle. A CDO is a highly illiquid bond and the premium on pricing is the compensation for the illiquidity. If people buy the CDO to hold it to maturity, it will pay out. However, if you have to sell you will probably suffer,” he said.


This is so funny, lets follow their logic, lets just wait 30 years for the flipper-bait MTG underlying property to be paid off, and then what is our investment going to be worth then? If we do as you say and don't demand a redemption now, what will we get in 30 years from now when that company that is long gone??

compensation for the illiquidity

If it looks like a ponzi scheme, and talks like a ponzi scheme?

The whole notion on toxic waste was that "dilution was the solution to pollution", it turns out that ALL the Bond waters have been polluted.
Just like the great run on the banks during the Great Depression, this is what your seeing now.

The great CDO bond minds tried so hard to convolute and distribute the risk, that they have polluted all the waters, and now everybody wants out.

Remember bond's like these have NO MARKET its all done on the phone you have to find a buyer, if there is NO buyer, then it has NO value.

In theory an excess of the GDP could get wiped out. The leverage factors are 10X to 100X, just like the great depression. Its leverage, and not the beauty that killed Kong.

Anonymous said...

I thought it was pretty funny when Congress started to make moves to help people losing their homes. You could almost see the gears grinding in the heads of the people questioned by the committee. They were thinking, "Yeah, good luck on that. You can't even isolate a loan anymore. This guy holds the principle payments and that guy holds the interest payments. And the loan didn't come from a local S&L and it's not even held by a bank anymore."

The Congressmen went WTF a couple times, then they saw how it was and the hearings were over. If you CAN'T do anything, then there's nothing to do.

--TT

Anonymous said...


There are plenty of rentals up for sale with the renters still inside. I feel for those people if they lose their place to live, because it'll be hard to find another one now.


Fear NOT renter, this shit will not sell.

Every house in Bend is virtually for sale, I don't think this should even be considered.

All you do is say "Given that your home dear owner is for sale, and I might have to help show it, I expect a 10-20% reduction in price..."

The MTG market is gone, just wait for foreclosure, until then the owner should be glad to get his $800/mo.

Anonymous said...


The Congressmen went WTF a couple times, then they saw how it was and the hearings were over. If you CAN'T do anything, then there's nothing to do.

--TT


TT, these are smart ol bastards, they have been around, remember all these folks assume ClitorisH is going to be prez, e.g. cheny-in-drag. HillBillary is the greatest whore in the WallStreet Biz, she'll not screw those who put her in the whitehouse.

Waxman and all the other folks on the banking committee made it perfectly clear that the "Investors wouldn't get bailed out", now that is the folks that bought the toxic-bonds themselves.

The other subject, is the mex ag-worker that lost his life savings in Sacramento, and the black mom's in Atlanta... This the bailout that should scare the hell out of everyone.

During the great depression the government tried to help people who lost their home, then as now, everyone was leveraged, and they had been making their home a piggy-bank. Many historians feel that it was government reaction to the the 1929 crash, that caused the great-depression.

Anonymous said...

I like Bend restaurants. WTF do want the French Laundry? I'm a beer and pizza type of guy mostly, and Bend does both quite well.

I convinced that lots of people on the board actually just hate Bend. I really encourage you leave and bitch about some other town.

Anonymous said...


I convinced that lots of people on the board actually just hate Bend. I really encourage you leave and bitch about some other town.


Hate what Bend has become.

Where is the Bend is Aspen crowd, all we hear about how Bend is like Aspen is from the Beer & Pizza crowd. It's clear the the rich move to Bend for the Beer & Pizza.

Is this why the rich move to Aspen also?

Are Bend & Aspen really different or are they the same?

Anonymous said...

Bend doesn't do pizza well. Anything thing from New York to Chicago does, and even much of the south. Bend doess do beer well, though.

Anonymous said...

UPDATE 3-S&P may cut $12 bln worth of subprime-related debt

Tue Jul 10, 2007 10:56am ET143

By Walden Siew

NEW YORK, July 10 (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's may cut $12 billion of subprime-related debt on expectations for an 8 percent drop in U.S. home prices and more defaults on home loans, the rating company said on Tuesday.

The classes of affected securities include 612 residential mortgage debt backed by U.S. subprime loans. S&P also announced changes to its rating methodology and is reviewing its ratings of collateralized debt obligations, S&P said in a statement.


The projected fall in home prices would exceed the record 6.5 percent drop between 1991 and 1992, making subprime loans issued in late 2005 and 2006 particularly vulnerable, David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York, said on a conference call. Subprime loans are extended to borrowers with spotty credit histories.

"The housing market is doing poorly," said Wyss, who also expects a 10 percent drop in housing starts.

"The levels of loss continue to exceed historical precedents and our initial expectations," S&P said in a statement. "At this time, we do not foresee the poor performance abating."

The benchmark ABX 07-1 BBB-minus index dropped 6.5 points to 49 points, a record low, after S&P's rating action. The $12 billion in affected debt represent 2.13 percent of the $585.3 billion in U.S. RMBS rated by S&P last year.

S&P said it underestimated loss rates of the subprime loans that back CDO debt structures. The situation will get worse before it improves, the rating company said.

"This could be important," said Lou Brien, a strategist with DRW Trading Group in Chicago. "Keep an eye out for the other rating agencies to follow suit."

Moody's Investors Service on June 27 said it also expects to downgrade more subprime-related CDOs in the next two years than it did in 2006.

Fitch Ratings said on June 22 that it may cut its CDO manager rating on Bear Stearns Asset Management, part of Bear Stearns Cos.' (BSC.N: Quote, Profile , Research), after Bear Stearns Cos. Inc. (BSC.N: Quote, Profile , Research) said it would provide up to $3.2 billion in financing for a struggling hedge fund it manages.
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CDOs are a rapidly growing class of securities created by packaging together bonds, including risky subprime loans, junk or high-yield bonds and high-grade debt, to help diversify risk.

"On a macroeconomic level, we expect that the U.S. housing market, especially the subprime sector, will continue to decline before it improves, and home prices will continue to come under stress," S&P said. (Additional reporting by John Parry and Neil Shah)

bendbutt said...

Hate what Bend has become.

Get used to it, because Bend sure isn't going to magically turn back into what it was X years ago when you liked it.

Anonymous said...

Notice there is nothing going on at rennaissance? That is because the banks pulled the financing. He cannot build until he has sold enough units. He will not finish the project. He is focusing on his West Linn, Oregon and Forest Grove projects. The bend project is for sale.

Interest payments on the development are $212,000 per month...DR ate his luch next door because they have been slashing prices and adding in free upgrades and they are almost done now.....they killed him......tick tock tick tock....

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

That is because the banks pulled the financing.

Where'd you hear that?

Duncan wrote that he has construction sub's customers who are getting laid off, or hours cut due to a major slowdown. Can't help but think it'll be good, cuz there be a glut, mate.

These banks are going to lose their asses UNLESS they start pulling financing on these white elephants. What they need to do is pull the loan on the waterpark.

Anonymous said...

Bad News Keeps getting worst. ABX is the closest thing we have to a 'DOW' stat on MTG-Bond's. ABX 'bbb' is the stat for MTG-BOND-bbb. Note it is now below '50', today it hit 49. This basically means at best, if you can find a buyer of your bond, in theory the highest price 'MIGHT' be 49 cents on the dollar. This shit is going, going, ... Gone. Trouble is big-boy buyers have only been offering 10 cents on the dollar for this shit.

***

ABX Goes To Lowest Ever
NEW YORK, July 11 (Reuters) - Benchmark ABX indexes opened lower on Wednesday, following Tuesday's sharp selloff and record low close, after major credit rating agencies started to cut ratings on $17.3 billion of subprime mortgage securities.

ABX 07-1 "BBB-" index, which is tied to loans made to risky borrowers in last year's second half, opened Wednesday's session at 50.50, falling below Tuesday's record low close of 51.42. The index hit an intraday low of 49 bid during the prior session before recovering.

"The market is nervous after yesterday's massive selloff on the rating actions. We're opening weaker," an ABX trader said.

ABX, used by investors to hedge subprime mortgage bets, tumbled on Tuesday after Moody's Investors Service and Standard & Poor's weighed in with rating actions.

Moody's cut the ratings of 399 residential mortgage-backed secured by subprime loans while placing 32 additional issues under review for downgrade. The action affected $5.2 billion in securities issued in 2006, backed by first-lien mortgages.

S&P signaled it may cut the ratings of 612 RMBS totaling $12.0 billion or 2.13 percent of the $565.3 billion U.S. subprime market. Both rating agencies cited further deterioration in pools of subprime loans underlying the securities and eroding credit support as triggers for the rating actions.

The ABX 06-2 index, which references loans from 2006's first half, traded at 58, down from 58.58 at the prior close.

Anonymous said...

They're now calling it "Black Tuesday". S&P said "The Charade is Over".

All the media today is calling yesterday "black tuesday". Pro's have been predicting for years that the Bond Market would implode. Well its Happened.

No More leveraged buy-outs ( KKR your fucked, this means you have to sell the Oregonian )

No more MTG's, this means Wall-Street is OUT of the MTG biz,

No more easy-money,

Luke, there is only one source of money left for the "dark-side", that is CDO-MUNI's.

Anonymous said...


He cannot build until he has sold enough units.


April 07, the new rule was NO construction loan, until you have sold 25% of the units.

Two weeks ago UBS completely closed-the-door permanently on Oregon Condos.

Do the Bend Condo Whores have any idea of what is coming?

For years you could just get a loan for $4M, build a condo-brothel and sell. Now you must sell 25% of the units, this means buyers with a REAL down-payment, not a $500 check. This means real buyers that qualify, not sub-prime flipper's without a job.

Condo Whores, your going to have to go back to what you know best, flat-backing.

BilboButt said...


Get used to it, because Bend sure isn't going to magically turn back into what it was X years ago when you liked it.


*

I was particularly fond of the salted-pork and cascadian pipe-weed back in the early 80's. Those were me best of days.

All of downtown was sleazy bars and HW stores.

With the price of gas high, and folks will not drive to Siberia. There's going to be a lot houses to work on for under the table handy-men, we need lots of HW stores downtown within reach.

Most of the devolution I have predicted to date has devolved. Certainly downtown will once again be primarily populated by sleazy biker bars, and HW stores. There were the best of days.

Luke, everything is going to plan.

Anonymous said...


Do the Bend Condo Whores have any idea of what is coming?


No problem, with CDO-MUNI's the City is going to be the banker, to keep the condo's moving.

We Must Have More Condo's.

CDO-MUNI debt is still selling well, as investors still think that a city is a better 'risk' that a subprime-flipper.

What if YOUR CITY is ran by subprime flipper's??

We need affordable condo's. The condo-whores don't want to go back to flat-backing.

The builder's need work, the city needs to justify its existence and payroll during the recession.

The only way to keep our city from being placed into massive CDO-MUNI debt, is to keep reminding Wall-Street that Bend is going to be the next Orange-County default

Anonymous said...


It's not as bad as BendBust (or whoever) says, in that we are about to lose NX Global GDP...


First of ALL nobody ever said such, but this is the start of this thread, so lets keep it moving.

That was monday this is wednesday, yesterday was black-tuesday.

Does anybody know how much money evaporated yesterday??

Yesterday S&P said the charade is over, they were going to downgrade 600+ CDO's. Moody is going to do the same. How would you feel if your income-interest-income fund all of a sudden went from 'AA' to 'bbb'. This stuff can only be sold on the phone, for the past 2-4 weeks buyers have only been offering 10 cents on the dollar.

Most pension funds MUST sell by decree when a bond fall's below 'AA'.

It certainly has been a charade. That MUST be the statement of the year. Our DUBYA is the ultimate emperor with no clothes. All have gone along while ALL were getting rich. Now ALL will be at each others throats while getting poor much more quicker.

The lawyers are going to be suing all the rating company's for year, expect them all to go bankrupt.

S&P and ilk with 'their' charade allowed flipper-cdo's to be traded as 'AAA' in the first place. The were supposed to have been the gate-keeper to protect granny.

Granny is fucked.

Anonymous said...

I missed the first part of the Renaissance story. Can someone fill me in? I have seen the ads, but that's all.

Did he own lots or have options on them? How many houses were actually built? How many of those were sold or occupied. Where, exactly, is the development if I want to drive by it?

I've seen some pretty big lumps of lots for sale. Are there any contrarians scoping these things up when they get low enough?

I'm not seeing anyone bailing out in the NW. Shit, they're still building up here! Even with sales slow.

--TT

Anonymous said...


What they need to do is pull the loan on the waterpark.


Muni-Bond, its protected by the good taxpayer of Redmond.

I hope they're allowed in the park, as they'll be paying for years to come, whether they get to use it or not.

We're heading into recession/depression in slow motion, while its true that 80% of Redmond City Employees are 'family', they'll not piss in their own soup.

The bypass is almost done. I suspect things will come to a halt when that is completed.

In actuality the good ol boys of Redmond are probably a little smarter than the 'pretty-people' that run the City of Bend.

Anonymous said...

I've seen some pretty big lumps of lots for sale. Are there any contrarians scoping these things up when they get low enough?
- TT

***

TT, developers and builders have been trying to sell the stuff as-is for six months to cut & run.

Bend has a 30+ year inventory now of siberian mcMansions. No contrarian is going to be buying remote lots. This shit should have never been built to developed. It will rot. If we were closer to Hollywood it could be burnt down to make movies.

I repeat the PRO's in the development biz have been trying to get out for months, the problem is they have ALL their money tied up in a project, and they know the completion will not sell, the only hope is another developer pick up the shit for cost. The problem is every developer in Bend is in this situation.

If there was a white horse contrarian from cali, that could pay 10 cents on the dollar for all this development-in-progress... TT - Its NOT going to happen. Most of these developers are going to be back driving twenty year old F100's within six months.

Anonymous said...

But at some point doesn't the developer drop the price of he land so low that some nut buys it?

That's what I'm curious about. What is the "new" value of Bend subdivision land if no one wants it?

The reason I ask is that my neighbor says, "Well, prices can't go much lower because the land is worth so much."

My response is always, "Hey, supply and demand. If no one wants your house, it's not worth anything."

Another argument he makes is that replacement value is so high because building costs are high. But that just takes China slipping a gear for the world to be suddenly flooded with cranked out building commodities.

--TT

Anonymous said...

But at some point doesn't the developer drop the price of he land so low that some nut buys it?

*


During the great depression dust-bowl property's ran themselves into dust.

It's one thing for inner-town homes where people are, but these 1,000's and 1,000's of Siberian mansions, it will take 30 years to fill the inventory.

Let's say your hypothetical 'contrarian' buys for the long-haul, do you realize what it costs to maintain a siberian pig-farm in the remote desert?

Anything that will NOT sell last year, will not sell now.

With Homes in Sacramento empty by the 1,000's and west-nile breeding in pools, our contrarian would be better investing there.

Or go to Atlanta where a $380k home last year will now cost you $100k.

There are MANY could 'comeback' plays all over the country, but remote desert siberian mcMansions are NOT on the list.

Anonymous said...

What is the "new" value of Bend subdivision land if no one wants it?


ZERO.

What was the 1500 acre Juniper Ridge worth when sold to Bend twenty years ago? One Dollar.

Then two-bit hustlers said "Lets turn zero-value desert land to gold", then everyone bought desert land and built mcMansions. Then three years later the flipper get's hosed, who just happens to be the primary purchaser.

The land returns to its TRUE value, its in the fucking desert. They called the 'Badlands' That for a reason.

Anonymous said...

The reason I ask is that my neighbor says, "Well, prices can't go much lower because the land is worth so much."

***

Much of our desert land just a few years ago was worth $100/acre, and that is a high price considering that that at the same time you could buy timber land on the coast for $400/acre.

Desert land has always been worthless. Unless of course it has irrigation.

Your little subdivision figure to put 8 lots on an acre, and thus MY little $100/acre land has gone to $1.6M/acre ( $200k lot times 8 ). Sell the shit mcMansion 3K+sq-ft for $450k. That was the plan, now the mcMansion might sell to a loser for $100k if he could get the sub-prime loan that no longer exists. The bank is sitting on a ton of this shit and wants NO MORE.


Now you can no longer get loans to flip, you can no longer get loans to build, Everything collapses.

Anonymous said...

There are MANY good 'comeback' plays all over the country, but remote desert siberian mcMansions are NOT on the list.

*

Remember the rest of the country is a year of ahead of Bend.

Perhaps next year if the 'contrarian' isn't broke, remember in depression's most people have no money. What's the point of buying if there are NO greater-fools on the horizon?

Atlanta was the first to go because they have a 60 day foreclosure law, Oregon takes about a year, thus expect to see astronomical foreclosures here next year. Then perhaps you'll see some contrarian buys.

Anonymous said...

I get your point, but there are still some (smaller number) of people buying. And the prices they are paying are still (to me) crazy.

The system may be freezing up, up it's not ice yet.

--TT

Anonymous said...

The system may be freezing up, up it's not ice yet.
--TT

*

Dude some days you sound like a kid, and some days mature. Like I have written a 100 times here, the shit isn't going to hit the fan until another year.

Oregon is always the last to fall, and the last to recover.

sincerely,

Anonymous said...

6.6666666666666666666666666666667e-4 Dollars per Acre ( $1/1500 acres )


What is desert land worth?


Let's take our current boon-doggle. The City of Bend gets Juniper Ridge all 1500 acres twenty years ago from Deschutes County for .06 cents/acres.

Then in 2005 the flippers take over City Hall, and they say "Lets turn desert land into GOLD". So the Juniper-Ridge plan is created. Dreams are sold, bankers are lined up. Who wants to build a world-class University where you can't get rich? Nobody. Let's do it out on worthless desert land, and then make a zillion dollars an acre.

It got so hysterical that UBS backed out when the City and them couldn't compromise on who got 60% of the profits and who 40%.

Since when is-was it City-Council business to be in the RE-Speculation biz??

Why shouldn't the city get in the gig? After all folks west of 17th West, and east of 27th East were already taking worthless desert land and making millions...

Print & Read the above, remember this whole thing is going be around for a long time.

Anonymous said...

This is the read of the day here. Note the rhetorical question earlier today. How much was lost yesterday? Conservative estimates are $50-100 Billion dollars. Note this is only 3-5% of S&P & Moody crap, thus extrapolate to all, and you get the tidy figure of $2Trillion dollars down the shit-hole. Almost as much as DUBYA has wasted on Iraq if you were to integrate the 20 yr cost of the war.

*************

Subprime Losses Drub Debt Securities as Ratings Drop (Update2)

By Caroline Salas and Mark Pittman

July 11 (Bloomberg) -- On Wall Street, where the $800 billion market for mortgage securities backed by subprime loans is coming unhinged, traders are belatedly acknowledging what they see isn't what they get.

As delinquencies on home loans to people with poor or meager credit surged to a 10-year high this year, no one buying, selling or rating the bonds collateralized by these bad debts bothered to quantify the losses. Now the bubble is bursting and there is no agreement on how much money has vanished: $52 billion, according to an estimate from Zurich-based Credit Suisse Group earlier this week that followed a $90 billion assessment from Frankfurt-based Deutsche Bank AG.

Even the world's second-largest company by market value must ``triangulate'' the price of an asset-backed bond when it gets bids from traders, said James Palmieri, who helps oversee $197 billion in investments at General Electric Co.'s Stamford, Connecticut-based GE Asset Management Inc.

``We do not foresee the poor performance abating,'' Standard & Poor's said yesterday as it threatened to downgrade $12 billion worth of securities backed by subprime mortgages. Losses ``remain in excess of historical precedents and our initial assumptions,'' S&P said.

Moody's Investors Service went further, lowering the ratings on $5.2 billion of subprime-related debt. Moody's today said it may cut the ratings on $5 billion of collateralized debt obligations backed by subprime debt.

Why Now?

More than a few investors would like to know what took the New York-based rating companies so long to discover a U.S. liability of Iraq-sized proportions.

``I track this market every single day and performance has been a disaster now for months,'' said Steven Eisman, who helps manage $6.5 billion at Frontpoint Partners in New York, during a conference call hosted by S&P yesterday. ``I'd like to understand why you made this move now when you could have done this months ago.''

Eisman was referring to the rise in borrowing costs that has forced thousands of Americans to default on their mortgages.

A total of 11 percent of the loan collateral for all subprime mortgage bonds had payments at least 90 days late, were in foreclosure or had the underlying property seized, according to a June 1 report by Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group Inc., a securities firm in Arlington, Virginia. In May 2005, that amount was 5.4 percent.

Investors depend on guesswork by Wall Street traders for valuing their bonds because there is no centralized trading system or exchange for subprime mortgage securities. Credit rating companies supported high prices because they failed to downgrade the debt as delinquencies accelerated.

Headed Lower

While there's no consensus on prices, traders agree that the bonds are headed lower. Some of the securities have already declined by more than 50 cents on the dollar in the past few months, according to data compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co.

One subprime mortgage bond, Structured Asset Investment Loan trust 2006-3 M7, is valued at about 91 cents on the dollar to yield 9.5 percent, according to the securities unit of Charlotte, North Carolina-based Wachovia Corp. Merrill Lynch in New York puts the price of the same security at 67 cents to yield 18 percent.

Bear Stearns Cos., the second-largest underwriter of mortgage bonds, was forced to extend $1.6 billion of loans to its High-Grade Structured Credit Strategies Fund, one of two money- losing hedge funds, last month after bad bets on bonds tied to home loans. New York-based Bear Stearns offered to salvage the fund after creditors including Merrill Lynch seized securities held as collateral and started selling them in auctions.

Shares of Bear Stearns tumbled 4.1 percent yesterday. Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the largest mortgage originator, fell 5 percent.

UBS, United Capital

UBS AG, the biggest money manager for wealthy investors, disbanded the Dillon Read Capital Management LLC hedge fund unit earlier this year at a cost of $300 million after mortgage-bond losses. The Zurich-based company, Europe's biggest bank, ousted Chief Executive Officer Peter Wuffli last week.

John Devaney's United Capital Markets Holdings Inc., which invests in subprime mortgage bonds, halted redemptions in some of its funds last week so it wouldn't have to dump holdings. The Key Biscayne, Florida-based firm oversaw $620 million in funds on March 31.

The downgrades may force sales, giving investors who have relied on estimates real prices to value their own holdings. That would be novel in the market for asset-backed bonds.

The securities, backed by everything from student loans to auto payments to mortgages, almost doubled to about $9 trillion outstanding since 2000, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.

Masking Swings

At least a third of hedge funds that invest in asset-backed bonds pick and choose values for their investment that help mask wide swings in performance, according to a survey of 1,000 funds worldwide by Paris-based Riskdata, a risk management firm for money managers.

``If you have five different brokers you will get five different quotes, so if you don't have an objective valuation process you can choose the quote which for you is the most interesting,'' said Olivier Le Marois, chief executive officer of Riskdata. ``There's no consensus on where the market price is.''

Price transparency came to the corporate bond market in 2002, when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission instructed the NASD to require securities firms to report every trade over a computer network called Trace.

Wall Street Benefits

If trades of asset-backed securities were reported on a similar system, more investors could have avoided losses, said Lawrence White, professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business.

``With transparency, changes in value, which will be reflected in changes in the price, will let people know sooner that their value has changed,'' White said. Holders will ``get taken by surprise less and less often and to a lesser extent.''

Wall Street has benefited from keeping the so-called structured finance market opaque. Securities firms collected $27.4 billion in revenue from underwriting and trading asset- backed securities last year alone, according to Kian Abouhossein, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in London.

Investors struggle when they need to set values for subprime and lower-rated debt because the bonds trade infrequently, said Dan Shiffman, vice president at American Century Investment Management in Mountain View, California.

``If it's a bond that requires a lot of credit work and if that bond hasn't traded for some time, it's very difficult to assess,'' Shiffman said. American Century manages $5 billion in mortgage-backed and asset-backed bonds.

Increased Confidence

Reporting trades of asset-backed securities on a system similar to Trace may attract more investors, said Joseph Fichera, chief executive officer of New York-based Saber Partners LLC, which has advised governments and utilities on $8 billion of securitizations over the past five years.

``It would increase confidence and help the market grow if it became more transparent because we would expand the number of buyers and sellers,'' Fichera said. ``There would also be less fear of a major repricing, a traumatizing event.''

The SEC started tackling the lack of price transparency in the corporate bond market in 1992 because of concern that traders were using inside information to manipulate prices of high-yield, high-risk bonds. Former SEC Chairman Richard Breeden's probe into junk-bond trading led to the creation of the Fixed Income Pricing Service.

Trace Objections

Arthur Levitt, who succeeded Breeden, wanted a database to collect the prices of trades on all registered corporate bonds after a 1998 review of the debt markets. The SEC concluded that transparency wasn't an issue for asset-backed securities and didn't include them in the Trace system. Levitt is a director of Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News.

Investment banks objected to Trace. The Bond Market Association, the trade group representing fixed-income underwriters and dealers, said traders wouldn't be compensated for buying risky bonds because investors adjust their bids and offers after prices are disseminated.

Bonds rated below Baa3 by Moody's and BBB- by S&P and Fitch are considered below investment grade.

Resistance

Securities firms missed an opportunity to make the asset- backed market more transparent in 2004, when the NASD proposed changing the definition of securities that would be listed on Trace. The BMA sent a letter to the NASD expressing concerns that the language could include asset-backed bonds and other structured finance products.

The NASD said asset-backed bonds wouldn't be on Trace. The BMA merged last year to create the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, the leading lobbyist of Wall Street firms.

Traders in subprime and low-rated asset-backed securities may resist any move to shine a light on the trades because they benefit from having their moves kept under wraps, said American Century's Shiffman. ``They might get better execution rather than having the bonds flagged all over the market,'' he said.

Anonymous said...

Like I have written a 100 times here, the shit

Yes a lot of nonsense has been repeated ad nauseum on this blog.

Any attempt at reasonable discussion of viewpoints differing from the currently fashionable "total imminent apocalypse" are greeted with derision.

Anonymous said...

>>Dude some days you sound like a kid, and some days mature.

I'm in my 40s and a full-time trader. I make a point of asking all kinds of questions. A lot of time I just like to hear how other people answer questions that have been posed to me.

You should never assume that the way someone asks questions on the Internet represents how they are thinking. We're all just trying to grapple with what's happening, and learn how to answer various questions.

--TT

Anonymous said...

"Imminent Apocalypse" that is the whole point, its not going be imminent, its all in slow motion, and the worst will be next year.

The bad news comes out now, in the fall interest rates will have risen, and resets will cause pain, then defaults, then foreclosures,

In orygun it takes a year to get them out, so then next year a shit-load of homes hit the market,

Is that really a"Imminent Apocalypse" ??

savagelove said...

Hello my name is Dan.

We have a Gay Man's Calendar that is of UPS ( United Postal Service ) men in shorts. It has come to our attention when google'ing "GAY & LES SCHWAB" that this site comes up #1.

We're planning a Gay Man's Calendar of Les Schwab men in crew cuts and shorts. If anybody in this site has any pictures or would like to submit them please.

Please pictures & bio's only. We would prefer Les Scwhab gay men if possible. Just shorts, no shirts please.

letters@savagelove.net

Anonymous said...

Yo Paul,

I know you've set this site up to be come one come all and all opinons are accepted but freakin bendbust has absolutely highjacked this site and it is too bad because the dialog is great and the traffic used to be better before numbnuts began posting when he is stoned, drunk, and methed out.

Bendbust..... go away you are an embarrassment to native Oregonians everywhere you are a dickhead Cali puke and will always be. I used to think Shawn Hannity was one of the biggest gas bags around but I'm positive you are every bit as annoying as that guy.

Anonymous said...

oy,oy,

I used to think I was the only metro sexual in Bend.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

freakin bendbust has absolutely highjacked this site and it is too bad because the dialog is great and the traffic used to be better before numbnuts began posting when he is stoned, drunk, and methed out.

Heck, it weren't a year or two ago that I posted on BEM's site & got bumped a time or two! I still see no problems with enslaving the entire population of Burns... And everyone rattled the bars screaming about "Open Posting" on any successor. And me & Buster have both been censored over at BendBB.

And he goes on, quite a bit, sometimes. But I figure, if he's saying something you don't like, you can click the header & his whole post collapses & you don't have to read it.

I would rather allow long-winded posting by "assholes"... cuz I'm one of them! Once I start censoring stuff, THAT'S when this blog would blow the monkey. I mean, we wouldn't have Chicago fags soliciting us for gay calendars.

And then where would we be?

Anonymous said...

Yo Les,

Bring Les Schwab to Bend and get out of that homophobic Prineville.

In Bend there are many guys that can flip tires, fuddle with flubber, and fiddle, fidget, and fuck.

Like Most guys we just love the Free Beef, well hung beef. North West is home of the free beef.

bendbutt said...

me & Buster have both been censored over at BendBB.

*

Why is that? What is the cunt afraid of?

It's one thing to censor his site, but why does the cunt want to censor this site?

Anonymous said...


This IS IT. This is the right shoulder of a breathtaking plunge that will carry us into the $200's. There will be a MASSIVE asset liquidation tsunami coming. At first it'll be garage sales and big SUV's. That'll be the signal, the receding waters that perplex & confuse people.


Actually 2005 was the year of toys for builders up in NWXC ($45/hr), and 2006 ($25/hr) was the year of liquidation of boats, motorcycles,... In spring of 2007 ($15/hr) we saw the two ends converge. Mexicans are demanding $10/hr, and skilled gringo's lucky to get $15/hr.

The non-compete agreements are driving out the gringos, as by definition the latinos don't sign non-compete's.

In my neighborhood I'm closer to construction so I know better what's going on. Most of my high end friends are more like myself, we didn't flip, we own our home's ( NO-MTG).

MTG&RE is feeling real pain, its hard to put a nail on the toy liquidation of these folks, as they tended not to have explicit toys.

Even in the Great Depression, only 25% were really 'out of work', of course some areas like Flint,MI now, were devastated.

There's a lot of RV's on craigs, cars seem to be more on the low-end. That said from personal experience stuff is hard to sell on craigs, all nose-pickers. EBAY is a lot better.

The MTG&RE folks started hurting last summer. Fall of 2006 was slow, in February 2007 I knew realtors with NO closing on their calendar, this was un-heard of. I don't know what they're selling, ... My personal experience is they have shifted.

You know all those time-share sales places in Bend, where a tourist walks through Bend and is sold an exotic vacation 'somewhere else', that is what realtors I know are doing now. They're sales-people, they just shift into another line of sales. Most I know don't think the gravy days of Bend RE are coming back.

Anonymous said...

You should never assume that the way someone asks questions on the Internet represents how they are thinking. - TT

**

ASSUME - "make an ASS out of U and ME"


Internet 'blogging' is no different than CB radio in the 70's, its just the fad of he moment. Nobody was thinking then, nobody is thinking now.

All we can really do to see the 'elephant', is converge our experience, some feel the leg, others the trunk, others the leg's; put it all together and you can see the elephant.

It's fun to know what's going on, not fun to be surprised. There are very few surprises to date.

Once July/August are past and tourist season is over it should get interesting.

Anonymous said...

Do we have drunk, angry Realtors posting here? It's all I can figure, given some of the recent comments about sexual orientation, drug use, et cetera. I was planning to move my family to Bend but apparently the Portland influence has already corrupted the place...

Mr. Reality said...

Do we have drunk, angry Realtors posting here?

( Yes )

It's all I can figure, given some of the recent comments about sexual orientation, drug use, et cetera.

( Sex is a human factor. Drug-use only comes from mr-myth, your alter-ego. 'Recent' are you suggesting that this adolescent humor game of yours is something 'new' to this blog? )

I was planning to move my family to Bend

( Come to Bend, we will strip you of your cash, your daughter, and your wives. You and your son's will leave this little desert shit hole with the clothes on your back. )

Anonymous said...

And me & Buster have both been censored over at BendBB.

And rightfully so! You IHTBYB/Paul-doh posted a few immoderate messages that I removed from the bulletin board a while ago, but since then you've been a regular participant on Bendbb. Bendbust on the other hand posted and reposted insults and obscenities so after a few weeks of removing his messages and asking him to stop he was banned. But for Bendbust's loyal readers they can still get all the same stuff right here on BendBubble2 (over and over and over again).

-- Bendbb

eyepublius said...

"I say let Les Schwab have their BadLand office, but we get Old-Mill for the UofO@Bend."

A swell idea. Now who's going to pay for it?

BTW if you're waiting for the Old Mill District to dry up and blow away, don't hold your breath.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

a few immoderate messages

Geez dude... chill. I'm just saying there are different philosophies here. You believe you're qualified to judge what "immoderate" means, and I do not (believe I am qualified). BendBuzzard can post whatever he wants... who a I to judge whether it is relevant, "immoderate" or what? I think even he knows he's repetitive at times, but it's easily circumvented by the individual readers; if they want to read it, great. If not, great. The whole blog is based on allowing readers to make that choice, not me.

It's sort of No-Win: If you censor, some monolithic leader decides what goes. If you don't, you can get splogged.

Both suck... but what you gonna do?

Anonymous said...

I'm just saying there are different philosophies here.

Right you are, and if the philosophies were the same there wouldn't be any point in have two forums because they'd be clones of each other. It's a Win-Win situation now -- people who want to read Bendbust's masterpieces can find 'em on BendBubble2 and those who don't can avoid 'em on Bendbb. Or they can double their fun and read both.

-- Bendbb

Anonymous said...


BTW if you're waiting for the Old Mill District to dry up and blow away, don't hold your breath.


Luke, Sure REI 'might' survive, but the dark-side has largely invested the old mill with condo's that cannot sell. With RE building's that will soon be empty, with MTG outfits that have gone bankrupt.

Soon almost all of the old-mill surrounding will be boarded up for-sale and/or for-lease. When that happens the Red-Robin and outlet stores will implode. The REI will wish it was out next to "JOES" on I-97.

The Rebel-Alliance, will then buy the Old-Mill for penny's on the dollar and a great University in Bend will be born.

BENDBUST said...

Bendbust on the other hand posted and reposted insults and obscenities - bendbb

***

You were blocking my IP back in January 07, when I was posting RE story's that went against your 'tone'.

I have NO interest in posting potty talk.

The fact is you don't like anything that isn't pretty.

Have I called the condo-whores by their correct name? Yes, but I wasn't the first to do so.

Have I correctly predicted the Bend economic meltdown? Yes, but I'm not the only one who thinks the charade is over.

I have moved around to many coffee shops, and posted RE story's on your 'bendbb' blog, only to see the IP get quickly blocked, yet the real people who continually post 'potty talk' on your blog, keep going. You are VERY selective about what you delete and block.

In my humble opinion the simple fact is you just don't like the truth.

As IHTBYB say's, let there be lots of blogs. I find 99% of the time the stuff on your site SUCKS, its just the same renters over and over asking the rhetorical question? Should I buy now.

I want to know what's going on in this fucking town, and anytime anyone publishes the truth on your site you delete it, and block the IP.

Given that IHTBYB's site is wide open, what I don't understand is why do you come over here to berate me? I don't even bother visiting your site ever.

To me its all a control thing, you can't control us your site, so you try to control us over here by suggesting that our comments are out-of-line, or drive-by-blogging, ... Get over it, if you don't like it, don't read it.

You remind me of some kind of DUBYA anti-porn vigilante that's trying to clean up Bend.

This is the ONLY dissenting opinion around, and yet you would like all the BEND blog-space to be just like the "bulletin", "source", "Oregonian" or "BENDBB".

Anonymous said...

Bendbust wrote:

I have NO interest in posting potty talk. ... Have I called the condo-whores by their correct name? ... I want to know what's going on in this fucking town ... I have moved around to many coffee shops, and posted RE story's on your 'bendbb' blog ... I don't even bother visiting your site ever.

Great stuff Bendbust, and I'm glad you've found this blog where the readers appreciate your thoughtful insights. But wait, some of them said you've hijacked this blog so maybe they don't appreciate it as much as you think they do.

-- Bendbb

BENDBUST said...


A few harsh winters, to expose the shoddy construction work, a few natural disasters, (a burning subdivision or two, overrun by deer, rock chuck, and rabid squirrels.) Settle in, lose your Cali-bagger status and become locals, struggling to get by. - dunan


What a beautiful sight.

Carpet-Bagger: It was originally a derogatory term, suggesting an exploiter who does not plan to stay. Since 1900 the term has also been used to describe outsiders attempting to gain political office or economic advantage, especially in areas (thematically or geographically) to which they previously had no connection.

I'm not sure if cali-bagger is apt, a bagger in my mind is a yank who came south to get carpet post civil-war. Bend has NOT yet fell on the hard times to come ( next year ), then the carpet-baggers will come. Next year is when you will be able to get stuff in Bend for penny's on the dollar.

What I have seen from cali is mostly losers.

Folks that wanted Aspen but they were short of the required net worth, so they came to Bend. Then they tried to create their own revenue source by selling pretty things to other equity immigrants.

Then there are the tons of folks who moved to Bend because it is "cheap", they came to rent, because its 1/3 of what it is in cali.

I'm really not sure that most cali-baggers thought far into the future, I really think they thought they were the smart ones coming early to the next Aspen.

outsiders attempting to gain political office or economic advantage

This second defn perhaps is more apt, but this gives them too much credit, perhaps Ray Kuratek ( Juniper-Ridge ) can fall in this category, or Abernethy, and a lot of City Council.

Frodo said...

Great stuff Bendbust,
-- Bendbb

*

Thanks, now go back to your own board and leave us alone, and NEVER come back. - gollum

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Right you are, and if the philosophies were the same there wouldn't be any point in have two forums because they'd be clones of each other.

I disagree. Movie critics both have the same job, but they bring widely varying commentary about the exact same subject matter. It would be quite difficult to produce clones of opinion-based forums of any kind.

I'm not against blog censorship per say: BEM censored several of my rants, and I was fine with it. I disagreed with your censorship of my comments, but it is NOT my place to dictate how you run your show, but simply understand that if I do post on BendBB, that you are the ultimate arbiter of whether it's posted or not.

There's a good number of posts on here that I (disagree with|think are stupid|think are irrelevant), but I just determined up front that I would censor nothing because I didn't think the topic at hand would be best explored by someone like me acting as a filter.

I'm not saying you run BendBB "wrong"... nor BEM & his original & awesome blog. And I empathize with the guy who says this blog is getting "hijacked", but I'd rather give BendBust his platform than start down the road of censorship, even "benign" censorship. It's a short hop from "benign" to "immodest".

Dang BendBB, you've posted stuff here I ain't crazy about... but it's going to stay, like the rest. I just believe that censorship of any kind would ultimately pit me against my commenters, and as a moderator, I would have my finger on the button & there would be no recourse for people except to start posting anon or leave.

In the words of GWB:

NOT

GONNA

DO IT!

Net Nanny said...

Movie critics both have the same job, but they bring widely varying commentary about the exact same subject matter.

*

In criticism ... The issues can be wide ...

There is the issue of style.

The issue of subject matter.

The issue of presentation.

The issue of timing.

One of the main problems with modern information is that all consent is manufactured.

The debate itself is often manufactured. The whole concept of duality, where all can be left vs right is manufactured.

The issue of good vs bad....

Many of us sat on our hands for many years watching Bend get run into the toilet. There will be orderly liquidation.

Why should the truth be limited to the select inner circle?

Like the man said "If you can't handle the truth, then go to BENDBB".

Anonymous said...

>>I'm not saying you run BendBB "wrong"... nor BEM & his original & awesome blog.

Actually, it's too late to nitpick, but I thought BEM ran his "wrong." The delay waiting for him to give the thumbs up to comments made conversations impossible. It was like chess-by-mail.

Anyhow, BendBB's blog has a lot of fun stuff. The raw data is great. This blog is better for ranting and raving.

--TT

Anonymous said...

it's too late to nitpick

*

It's never too late to nitpick, as bendbb has shown us.

Anonymous said...

IHTBYB, I like the way you run your blog. Looking forward to eating a burrito with you at the end of the year.

-- Bendbb

bendbutt said...

Just like Bend, +70% loans are subprime-ARM and subject to reset this year valued at $515B, and then another $680B next year. Foreclosures for the next two years, going into 2009.

*
Wall Street: Target of Housing Lawsuits (AP)
By ALAN ZIBEL 07.12.07, 1:44 PM ET

In a report last month, Banc of America Securities warned of a "broader fallout from subprime mortgage deterioration" when homeowners with about $515 billion in adjustable-rate home loans - more than 70 percent of whom are subprime borrowers - get higher monthly mortgage bills as rates reset before year-end.

Another $680 billion worth of mortgages will reset in 2008, the report said. And the two biggest credit ratings agencies on Tuesday downgraded billions of dollars worth of bonds backed by subprime mortgages.

Anonymous said...

THE CYCLE OF REPEATING FACTORS:

1) failed auctions and unsatisfactory public sales of asset-backed bonds

2) debate on value in illiquid opaque markets, driven by models

3) rating agency debt security downgrades

4) forced sale of bonds which lose investment grade status

5) huge writeoffs on balance sheets holding bonds

6) compensatory sales of other bonds to improve debt ratios

7) downgrade of ‘AAA’ rated bonds from falling home collateral assets

8) available mortgage funds reduced from collateral sales

9) continued bankruptcy of lending institutions

10) inevitable bankruptcy of a major bank and many home builders

11) return of bonds to broker dealer issuers for non-performance or fraud

12) lawsuits against lenders for predatory practices, misrepresentation

13) Congressional action to clarify liability from fraud and predatory practices

14) hedge fund failure, credit disposition, liquidation of bonds

15) falling housing prices, pressured by heavy unsold home inventory

16) mortgage rates reset upward, ending initial bargains

17) rising mortgage defaults, delinquencies, and foreclosures

18) bankers return foreclosed properties to the market for sale

19) mortgage bonds fail to perform on income from monthly payments

20) base long-term interest rates rise from market conditions

21) tighter lending standards, big pre-payment penalties inhibit refinances

22) stronger homeowners decide to sell so as to avoid going underwater in equity

23) state legislation to attempt to protect homeowners soon to lose homes

24) Congressional threat of ratings agencies and bond issuers for liability

25) REPEAT THE PROCESS

bendbutt said...

My guess is that the DOW is up because DUBYA is going to keep the war going, which means more profits. Watch the war. Hillary is also going to keep us in the war. Wall Street likes what it see's.

People are also moving out of Bonds, and into stock, e.g. those that could sell their bonds.

Anonymous said...

Win-Win situation now -- people who want to read Bendbust's masterpieces can find 'em on BendBubble2

-- Bendbb

***

Hell go for the BULL and read the real thing at bendbubble.blogspot.com

-- Bendbb

Anonymous said...

Bendbust said, "What I have seen from cali is mostly losers."

And where are you from again..... Exactly. Nuff said.

As much as you'd like to think I'm in no way tied to the RE game so let me debunk that myth, yep there are some of us that don't have a stake in RE that are tired of your rants bilbo.....

Although I can see your point Mr Doh. gotta take the good with the ridiculous sometimes. I would have to agree with TT. I enjoy content on both sites keep'em going.

It would be hoot to meet in a year or two some place to be determined just to put names with faces. Although I mentioned to a friend there would probably be a drive by, by some disgruntled RE Clerk, MGT hustler or appraisal guy.

Ticktock

Anonymous said...

"What I have seen from cali is mostly losers."

*

Yes, there are only two kind of loser's coming from cali,

Those with a little money to pretend they found Aspen.

Those who come to rent with NO money.

Did we miss anybody??

Anonymous said...


drive by, by some disgruntled RE Clerk, MGT hustler or appraisal guy


drive-by in the city bus they will, but in two years they'll not be driving a car, not a one of them, the foreclosures will not even be done playing out by 2010 in this little desert town.

the above is only conditional on the premise the good people of Bend still have those cute little buses

Anonymous said...


What I have seen from cali is mostly losers.


What is wrong with this statement. The point being made is that we're we have not been getting the Santa Barbara people. We have been getting RE's, MTG's, ... from cali, generally those that couldn't make it there. Then we get those that can't even pay the going rent down there.

That makes Bend a dust-bowl recovery basin.

We're told by City Hall that all the beautiful rich are moving to Bend, and they're the reason for high prices.

Again not true, the reason price's went high is sub-prime, back in the spring I caught hell for pointing out that the Mexican was buying the shit from the white trash of Bend, who in turn was buying out at Shevlin. Folks didn't want to hear the truth, they all wanted to believe that rich calis were going to make us all rich.

Now we got a shit load of cali losers, folks that cali was glad to get rid of, non-productive RE, MTG, ... types, also I might mention builders a shit-load of cali builders came up here in 2005/2006 and bought 3500 sq-ft lots for $300, and they all got hosed.

Somebody has to tell the truth, why shouldn't the royal-we?

Anonymous said...

-

Redmond sees drop in building permits
By Scott Hammers / WesCom News Service
Published: July 12. 2007 5:00AM PST

REDMOND — New construction in Redmond has fallen off significantly in recent months, as the slowdown in the local real estate market has prompted builders to hold back.

In June, Redmond’s Community Development Department issued just 16 permits for new single-family homes, down from 59 in June 2006 and 95 in June 2005. Going back to January 2000, the number of permits issued in a single month has dropped below 16 just two times.

Andy High, the director of government affairs for the Central Oregon Builders Association, said people in the building trades are starting to feel the pinch. There’s a “chain effect” related to the various steps involved in building a house — builders felt the slowdown six months ago, High said, and finish carpenters are starting to feel it now.

“There’s definitely concerns out there that they’re going to have to reduce some costs, and most of the time, the highest cost in any company is personnel,” he said. “Unfortunate as that may be, I already know of one or two companies that have reduced some staff to keep the doors open.”

High estimates that 20 percent of Central Oregon’s population is employed in construction, but they don’t show up in traditional measures of economic conditions.

“For a lot of those people, they’re self-employed,” High said. “The self-employed framer doing a job, doesn’t have a crew, or they’re a contract employee for the company. You won’t see them register under the unemployment data. It is one of those things similar to agriculture in that you go where the work is.”

John Stark, of Express Personnel, said he has yet to see any decline in the number of employers coming to his company to hire workers. The Bend-based employment agency places workers in both skilled and unskilled construction jobs, as well as in factories that produce materials used in construction.

“We’re seeing the same types of numbers (declining permits), however, what we’re not seeing is a consistent drop in the companies that we work with,” Stark said. “From time to time, we do see slowdowns — more in the manufacturing and distribution of those materials — but it’s usually over the course of a year, not specific to this time right now.”

Redmond contractor Steve Herbert said he sees evidence of a slowdown — his permits are approved much quicker than before, and subcontractors return his calls.

“Lately, I’ve been calling and getting really good, quick service. Last year, we weren’t,” he said. “If I called a heating contractor when it was just really going crazy, it would take weeks to get somebody out there sometimes, and now, I can get somebody out there in a matter of days. So it’s good for me.”

Herbert occasionally builds a complete house but specializes in remodels, something he thinks is on the rise. People who might have looked at selling their house and moving across town a few years ago now look at the softer housing market and decide that remodeling their current home is a better choice, he said.

High said some of the slack in the residential construction market is being sucked up by the commercial market, which he said is up 44 percent in Bend over last year. Some people in construction, like HVAC installers, can easily adapt to commercial projects, he said.

Most of the builders in Central Oregon are small operators, High said, building only a few houses at any one time. Many of them planned ahead, anticipating an inevitable slowdown, he said, but they still don’t have the flexibility to wait out the market like the bigger builders do. A smaller builder will typically finance a project with a one-year loan, often only paying interest, which effectively commits them to finishing and selling every house during that time period, regardless of market conditions.

“Those are the people we really concern ourselves with in a market like this,” High said, noting COBA’s efforts to assist builders with financial planning. “They just don’t have the capital of a Pahlisch or one of the other production home builders.”

Herbert said he’s been watching Pahlisch and the other big builders closely in recent months, and he gets the sense they’re ready to start building again.

“I think we’re probably about as flat as we’re going to get. I don’t think we’ll see a sharp increase, I think we’re going to kind of gently ease out of it,” Herbert said. “I hope (the market) doesn’t go back past a couple of years ago, but definitely, a year ago, we were riding the crest at that point in time.”

Bend Economy Man said...

A good story from The Bulletin, though they can't quite tell the story straight, making it about "Redmond" when everything in the story is equally true of Bend or Central Oregon in general.

I mean, they quote a Bend employment agency, refer to the Bend commercial real estate market, quote the COBA stooge (based in Bend) - how is this a Redmond-specific story?

Anonymous said...

The Bulletin, though they can't quite tell the story straight, making it about "Redmond" when everything in the story is equally true of Bend or Central Oregon in general.

*

Cannot be Bend, bend is exceptional, we're Aspen, RE only goes up. Redmond is where construction people sleep, Bend is where they work.

Doh, whats really interesting about this is the people in 'finish' that I know that have been working, have been working in Redmond, because the cheap land is-was the last affordable place to buy.

What can I say? Will people do construction for free? If finish carpenters will work for $5/hr, is that low enough for developers to seek a permit? The fact is there are NO buyers, and thus you cannot get money in the first place.

The only real work there has been for six months is remodel, there are still a lot of people with money.

Anonymous said...

One other item that needs to be said on this construction re-model issue.

The permits have been the holy-grail revenue for Bend, now that 80% of all construction will go remodel, nobody will bother with a permit, as they same its all under the table handymen....

Anonymous said...

“For a lot of those people, they’re self-employed,”

The construction pay started falling over a year ago, smart guys moved into remodeling and and lined up jobs to keep them busy in the coming year.

This is the reason for the ever present non-compete agreement. If you ever work for anyone even as a temporary you must sign, and then you can no longer, unless its under the table.

What is happening, is that everything is going to be remodel only, and its all going to be under the table.

Expect HOME-DEPOT to be busy, and the PERMIT office empty.

The city fucked its own, and what you sow so shall ye reap. Maybe the condo-whores will make donations to the permit office, or are there 'affordable condos' exempt from fee's?

Anonymous said...

Ever noticed Bend is becoming a rich mans retirement community?

***

Is it now?

All I see moving here is cali losers, folks who have lost their home.

There are a few folks up in Broken-Top that are going to lose their arse.

The city tried, the condo whores tried, everyone but humpty-dumpty tried to market Bend as Aspen. But the real rich people didn't bite.

Bend will be what it has always been an old washed up logging town, like many in Oregon.

In time the new managers of Les Schwab will run the two bit tire company into the ground, and then what will central-oregon have? A water slide?

Anonymous said...

The city fucked its own, and what you sow so shall ye reap.

( The city bought Juniper-Ridge for 6 cents/acre, and tried to flip it for $1.6 million/acre )

Maybe the condo-whores will make donations to the permit office, or are there 'affordable condos' exempt from fee's?

( The building permit fee's were supposed to be the 'golden goose' that was going to pay for the affordable housing, e.g. a 'new way' to sell condo's that don't sell. Permit fee's will now fall to 5%, the permit center may as well lay everyone off and be open 2 hour/day. Greed created the busy-busy permit center, and greed busted the bubble. What you sow, so shall ye reap )

Anonymous said...

So, Paul Doh!pe

Didja notice that, from the low point on your little NASDAQ chart (which appears to be closer to 1,200 than to 1,600) in the fall of 2002 to today, the market has risen right around 100 percent?

Predicting the same "shoulder effect" for Bend real estate? Or do your metaphors work like Tweedle-Dee's ... "Words mean exactly what I say they mean. Nothing more and nothing less."
The world is going to shit, because I say so.

You have never, in your thousands of words of loudmouthed rants on this site, produced any analysis or evidence for a prediction of 199k medians. Except for your own blather-at-the-mouth, whack-myself-off bombastic insistance that it must be true.

What is that magic number, anyway? Your own qualification point?

How's the renting working out, anyway? Enjoy the tax breaks? Keep as many dogs as ya want? Let the kids tack as many posters as they want to the walls? Get everything fixed when it breaks down? Likin' the landscaping in the wilting summer heat?

Where, in other words, do you come off comparing, on a straight-up basis, housing (for chrissakes) -- a home, for most people (our now gone, but unlamented flippers, notwithstanding) and the freaking NASDAQ?

And do you EVER do original research on this site? Or do you just relish bashing The Bulletin, and Realtors and their ilk, while taking their data (including the worshipped David Foster's, or "David" as you gropingly refer to him) as gospel?

How much are you paid for your newly added real estate listings?

Something tells me that you're just a generally disgruntled jackass. And this site is largely composed of bullshit.

Can't quite put my finger on why.

Mr Reality said...

do original research on this site?

( the purpose of the site is to debate, to allow all to rant & rave and share their point of view )

Or do you just relish bashing The Bulletin, and Realtors

( your point is? if the Bull were covering the news there would be purpose for the debate, the blogs have filled a void created by apathetic media )

and their ilk, while taking their data as gospel?

( david is one of their own, david is not our 'gawd' he is there 'gawd' )

Anonymous said...


You have never,... produced any analysis or evidence for a prediction of 199k medians.


Yes, only about 199 time or more times has the 199k median prediction been analyzed on this site.

Every village needs an idiot and a royal opposition.

The median DONT MEAN SHIT, its largely the invention of realtors, what really matters is COMPS, hell if a median meant anything then appraisers would just use the median and be done.

Comparable affordable homes will fall below $199k during the next three years. Current estimates are the RE market will be down until 2010 as that is how long its going to take to clear the sub-prime created inventory ( clear out foreclosures ).

Today in Atlanta homes that had been selling for $360k, are now selling for $120k. Georgia has a 60 day foreclosure law, which means that a bank start a sheriff sale when you are 30 days late. In Bend its going to take 1-2 years for the resets to to cause late payments, then a year for the court to remove them from the home. Atlanta leads the nation on future prediction where things are going.

In Bend you have falling wages, and rising home costs ( resets ), the squeeze will effect a large number of people during the next 1-2 years. All these houses will go back to the bank, whom will sell the houses at auction.

DOHBOY has analyzed the $199k minimal floor too many times, and all analysis doesn't mean shit. What matters is what BUYERS will pay SELLERS. Given that money is NO longer available nothing will sell. Your demand to analyze for the N+1 time is just a repetitive exercise.

A more interesting question might be rather than asking that a predicted floor might be reach, justify what a little lot in downtown Bend was trading for $300k in 2005/2006? Only because builders thought if they put a cute little house on the little lot they could sell it for $600k. What justified the notion that anyone would buy a little house in Bend for $600k? Sellers were asking those prices, why?

Stated-income, zero-down, ARM, interest-only loans; on as many houses as you wanted ( typically each person could buy four houses NO problem ).

Simply the best prediction of future prices of Bend real-estate is prices that exists prior to the easy-money, e.g. Wall-Street got into the MTG biz. If you take a house that had an ASK of $450K in 2006, that house in my BEND neighborhood had a SELL price of $120K in 1999.

High prices ONLY exist for ONE reason, easy money in a small desert town. This is NOT the bay-area where you have a ton of people making really good money. This is Bend Oregon, where you have a ton of people barely getting by.

Thus given that the $199k floor has been analyzed a zillion times, lets play a new game, and justify HIGH prices.


Tell us why prices should be high. Tell us why what's happening in Atlanta will never happen here. Tell us why next month building permits will be back to the 2005 level... Tell us why?

Anonymous said...

Where, in other words, do you come off comparing, on a straight-up basis, housing (for chrissakes) -- a home, for most people (our now gone, but unlamented flippers, notwithstanding) and the freaking NASDAQ?

**

What a bunch of baited bullshit. Somebody is bored this AM. A Bend 'home' is NOT a home, the majority of all cracker-shacks in Bend are flipper bait, they were built as flipper bait, and they'll always be flipper bait.

The NASDAQ is similar to Bend RE, built on GREED & FEAR.

The NASDAQ is made up of intangible worthless paper stock.

BEND RE is made up with "Bend as Aspen" Intangible value.

In times of greed prices go up, and in times of fear prices collapse.

The NASDAQ shoulder was shown for many reasons, one reason DOH noted was that it went lower than he thought. It didn't surprise me at the time, as I knew most of the reported sales and expectations were phony. Most of the dotcom biz models were based on zero-profit, give away stuff and they'll come.

Bend RE was based on build, and they'll come, build for free, use other peoples money. NO RISK, housing only goes up,

NASDAQ was the same, stocks only go up, I remember that ALL I heard in the day, is that stocks only go up.

FOR two years or more up in NWXC I heard everyday RE only goes up,... make 30%/yr forever risk free.

Greed & Fear, stocks and Bend real-estate. What are they both worth? nada

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Where, in other words, do you come off comparing, on a straight-up basis, housing (for chrissakes) -- a home, for most people (our now gone, but unlamented flippers, notwithstanding) and the freaking NASDAQ?

And do you EVER do original research on this site? Or do you just relish bashing The Bulletin, and Realtors and their ilk, while taking their data (including the worshipped David Foster's, or "David" as you gropingly refer to him) as gospel?

How much are you paid for your newly added real estate listings?

Something tells me that you're just a generally disgruntled jackass. And this site is largely composed of bullshit.


Awesome! I wondered if the malcontents had left town.

Where do I come off... Nice! Righteous indignation! SWEET! I was actually starting to get worried that since I hadn't heard from any True Believers in awhile, that there were no suckers left to sell to. Fear assuaged. Where do you come off..., I'll have to remember that one.

Can I gropingly refer to you as a dumbass? OK, here's something.

DICTIONARY!

Read it, use it, love it. Gropingly... another good one!

Ahhh yes, the fabulously lucrative RSS feeds. Well, I don't want to say what craigslist pays me, but suffice it to say that after they got those ebay millions, they were quite interested in lavishing me with cash to run Google-fueled RSS feeds on this blog. How much am I paid... seriously dude, you need to post here more, cuz you are seriously funny!

Something tells me that you're just a generally disgruntled jackass. Now this is dead true. 100%.

And this site is largely composed of bullshit. Your mileage may vary.

your thousands of words of loudmouthed rants on this site

Wow. I take it all back. thousands of words. Holy shit, you put me in my place with that one. It's clear you've done your homework. I mean you came here and pretty much figured out that this blog has thousands of words in like 2 seconds. Seriously, are you in Mensa, cuz you should consider joining. Cuz people who can figure out that blogs have words and other thorny problems should be put to work solving World hunger, global warming & the like. Good job.

Now, I don't want to challenge your obviously superior intellect, but scroll down The Blog if you want to see more words about justifying $199K medians. There's like thousands of words on the topic, but I can see that you probably did not have time for any in-depth research on the topic, cuz you were tied up with the whole blogs have words project.

Didja notice that, from the low point on your little NASDAQ chart (which appears to be closer to 1,200 than to 1,600) in the fall of 2002 to today, the market has risen right around 100 percent?

Holy shit, what's going on? Who are you people? Where are we? What's that? Who am I? What year is it?

2007!

Holy fucking crap! What's the NASDAQ at... 1,250, I assume. I've been in a coma for 4 years, and am easily confused. I remember making graphics, but went partially blind on my right side in the process.

Where, in other words, do you come off comparing, on a straight-up basis, housing (for chrissakes) -- a home, for most people (our now gone, but unlamented flippers, notwithstanding) and the freaking NASDAQ?

Seriously dude, that's one of the funniest things I've read in a long time. The convoluted idiocy of that cannot be measured with known technology. Every word is a jewel of insanity.

housing (for chrissakes) -- a home, for most people

I love how you attempt to clarify housing as "a home, for most people", while at the same time interjecting expletives, to indicate that I, somehow, do not or refuse to understand what you're saying. My God, that is Gold!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

"Hello, I am Paul-doh. I am here today to talk about housing -- a home for most people -- you thick-headed gat damned sons-a-bitches."

That is awesome. Dude, become a professional speaker, I would pay to hear more.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

"Hello, for crissakes, I am Paul-doh. I'd like to talk about housing today -- a home for most people -- but some mistake it as a puppy, a lamp, or a hemorrhoid. But to you stupid mother fuckers, I say again:

HOUSING

See, I feel because I am of superior intellect that I must DISAMBIGUATE the term. "Housing" is what I'm talking about, not the skid on my underwear or washing the dog. It's housing, a "home" to most people. Some people want to say I am clarifying the wrong term, saying such bullshit as:

I'm going to go housing, and get something to eat.

or:

Where did Angie go?

She went housing.
..."

It's stuff like that that keeps me going...

Anonymous said...

"David" as you gropingly refer to him

*

IHTBYB when was the last time your groped david foster?

I always figured the reason you quoted ALL the professional-realtor blog's was that you could use their stuff as ammunition for the debate.

Now your being accused of being one of the pimps for the condo whores.

The kool-aid drinkers have figured out that your a realtor that wanted to destroy his commission income, and drive himself into poverty. Mass insanity has finally taken place in Bend.

Anonymous said...

Google "Housing" and you get ...

The county should not be responsible for finding them housing. Sex offenders have a 95 percent failure rate. Parents know where your kids are at all times. ..

Anonymous said...

'Affordable' Housing often leads to ...

Public housing or project homes is a form of housing tenure in which the property is owned by a government authority, which may be central or local. ...

Anonymous said...

Policing the Poor: From Slave Plantation to Public Housing:

Keeping them on the plantation - public housing reform - Rebuilding America:

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Just a note:

I may miss a few posts, cuz with all the RSS money I make from this "word-filled blog", I am chartering a Learjet down to SoCal to buy 5 Lamborghini's.

Anonymous said...

Housing facts and figures, stats and information on Hoosier Housing.

Most Hoosier housing units are single-family Mobile homes.

Hoosier Village is pledged to the letter and spirit of the United States policy for the achievement of equal housing opportunity throughout the nation. ...

FUCK BEND I'M MOVING to HOOSIER

Median rent in Hoosier, at the time of the 2000 Census, was $508. Monthly homeowner costs, for people with mortgages, were $1125. Hoosier housing guide ..

Anonymous said...

To disambiguate between this area and the broader eastern region of the City ... locals have come to use the term "Eastside" for the region (to counter with ...

The short form for the region, "West Bend.", is an imprecise term which can ... To disambiguate, locals often refer to the larger region as "the Westside". ...

That's it its NOT in the name of disambiguation, Bend is NO longer Bend, its now either westside or eastside.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Hello, non-understanding mother fuckers, I am Paul-doh. I'd like to compare on a straight up basis, housing -- better known as a "home" to most people; and by "most people" I refer to our now gone, but unlamented flippers, NOTWITHSTANDING.

Let me re-clarify that "our" flippers, while gone today, we must not lament them, while in days and years past we should not only lament them, but include them in discussions about "most people".

So I would like to gropingly proceed in the aforementioned non-lamentable flipper averted talk about "housing", and not my hairy-ass buttcheeks, or other topics of which there are many in number and large in scope -- or to most people, except flippers: "humungous".

I hope that by clarifying each word with like 500 other words, I can get to the meat of the subject, which I must repeat is "a home, to most people": AKA HOUSING.

OK, so "housing" is the topic, you mother fuckers are the not-understanding morons, flippers are the lamentable bitches that I do NOT want to talk about the topic at hand, and I am smarter than you is the assumption.

OK, that concludes my speech, are there any questions?

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

You call her home
And you want to move in
But a house is not a home
And a home is not a house
When there's not enough room for you


To all the True Believers, on a lazy, hazy, not-so-crazy Friday after you've done chewed my ass on this blog for the tenth time:

You've got a lot of nerve
To say you are my friend.
When I was down you just stood there grinning.

You've got a lot of nerve
To say you've got a helping hand to lend.
You just want to be on the side that's winning.

You say I let you down,
You know it's not like that.
If you're so hurt, why then don't you show it?

You say you've lost your faith,
But that's not where it's at.
You have no faith to lose, and you know it.

I know the reason that
You talk behind my back.
I used to be among the crowd you're in with.

Do you take me for such a fool
To think I'd make contact
With the one who tries to hide what he don't know to begin with?

You see me on the street.
You always act surprised.
You say, how are you, good luck, but you don't mean it.
When you know as well as me,
You'd rather see me paralyzed
Why don't you just come out once and scream it!

Now don't I feel that good
When I see the heartaches you embrace
If I were a master thief perhaps I'd rob them.

And though I know you're dissatisfied
With your position and your place,
Don't you understand, it's not my problem.

I wish that for just one time,
You could stand inside my shoes,
And just for that one moment I could be you.
Yes, I wish that for just one time
You could stand inside my shoes,
You'd know what a drag it is to see you.

bendbutt said...

Now we know positively that IHTBYB lives on 4th Street.

BilboBend said...

Everyday rather than debating the bend-bubble all the adolescent diatribe results in bashing individuals. Yesterday it was bendbust, a few weeks ago duncan, today its ihtbyb. There is one clown here that has his own agenda.

There certainly are very few 'true believers' left in Bend. We're one year into the decline of the bend-bubble we have 2+ years to hit bottom.

BEM pointed out months ago that his blog was simply stating the obvious.

IHTBYB seems to think there are still some hermits in Bend that haven't heard the news.

Debating the economic outlook at this point should be the goal.

There is NO longer a debate that being a flipping isn't smart. The implication for Bend residents is that a home is a 'home' and not a piggy bank. The implication for business is to reacquaint yourself with 2001 levels of spending.

At this point all we can possibly do is predict what the post 2010 Bend will look like, and what the priority's should be.

Anonymous said...

What's up with Columbia Aircraft?

Anonymous said...

I'm going to have to put Blonde on Blonde on my iPod.

--TT

Anonymous said...

What's up with them Duck's?

Anonymous said...

What's up with Columbia?

The Bootleg Series Volumes 1-3 (Rare & Unreleased) 1961-1991. (Columbia reportedly issued the most 'complete' take from that session, as it breaks down at the start of the very last verse.)

Anonymous said...


We really don’t want people to try this, but at the same time, you have to admire the gutsiness and ingenuity of Bend gas station owner Kent Couch, ...


This is like the biggest story in the history of Bend. Has it been discussed here? NO!

Here's a guy from Bend Oregon a guy that makes you proud to be an American. A guy with ingenuity and gustiness, the kind of stuff that Bend people are made of.

bendbutthead said...


It's a Win-Win situation now -- people who want to read Bendbust's masterpieces can find 'em on BendBubble2 or bendbubble.blogspot.com


The most prolific writer in the history of Bend.

Classics like ..

Bend cops eat goose shit

All people of bend are dis-engaged shitheads

Bend people eat dog

a hobbits tale of bend

Are ALL californians assholes?
Bend cop bites dog

Duncan is Ned Flanders, Bendbust is Bart

People in Bend are happy because they eat lard

Juniper ridge terminated, UofO Bend to be at Old Mill

Juniper Ridge the greatest fiasco in the history of bend

How to get a world class education in Oregon

Invest in Bend, a road to debtors prison

EDCO declares new oregon order

Les Schwab rapes poodle

Bend report on contractors

Bend report on mexicans

A movie review of the "Host" another story about Bend

The Shires, Bends other great boondoggle

A Cascadian hobbits tale of Bend

californians are goblins

comparing redmond/bend to la-pines

how to get rich in bend

fourteen steps to RE recovery in Bend

how to train a realtor to write lowball offers in Bend

Bend RE Investors the 'missing link' is found, proof that man is not as smart as dog



The above is less than 25%, you get the idea, there is an encyclopedia of content.

Anonymous said...

"Tell us why prices should be high. Tell us why what's happening in Atlanta will never happen here. Tell us why next month building permits will be back to the 2005 level... Tell us why?"

Haven't made any of those contentions, ya jackass. Sorry ... not gonna be your strawman today.

Atlanta???? What the hell does Atlanta have to do with Bend? Since when is ATLANTA the nation's leading real estate indicator? Or the Northwest's?

And where, in the reams of bullshit you have posted in this blog, apparently now under several names, have you offered any real evidence/analysis to support the likelihood of a 199k median?

Shut the f#### up and find me some cites.

And Jesus, get a life. Bend -- a place where lots of people are just getting by.

Doofus, San Franscisco is a place where lots of people, maybe most, are just getting by. So is Hong Kong. New York. Chicago. But it's also a place, like those are, where lots of people are innovatively creating new businesses, where they are telecommuting through the world's money centers, where they are bringing their assets earned elsewhere, in some cases, to retire young in an active place.

Head out on Phil's Trail, any given day this summer, and ask the 30-something Mt. bikers who they are, what they do, and why the f*** they have the time to be out mountain biking in the middle of a work day, and you might find out more about the town you live in than you do beetling over your scummy computer keyboard in your little rental.

Get a life. Get out and interview some people. Do some original research.

At least "The Bull" and the realtor-creatures talk to real humans.

What do YOU do?

Atlanta and NASDAQ shoulders ... What pathetic bullshit.

bentbutthead said...

"Tell us why prices should be high.

( bend is exceptional, the people here are all rich )

Tell us why what's happening in Atlanta will never happen here.

( Atlanta is now down 66%, they lead the nation )

Tell us why next month building permits will be back to the 2005 level...

( bend building permits are down 90% )

Tell us why?"

( Bend is exceptional, everyone here is rich )

bendbutthead said...

Doofus, San Franscisco is a place where lots of people, maybe most, are just getting by. So is Hong Kong. New York. Chicago.

*

What does these city's have to do with Bend, a little desert town ran by get rich quick real estate hustlers?

Bend had, note I fucking said "HAD", environment, the environment has been fucked, the golden goose of bend is dead.

Now we're just redmond with drake-park.

bendbutthead said...


Head out on Phil's Trail, any given day this summer, and ask the 30-something Mt. bikers who they are?, what they do?

*

I'm on phils everyday, done so for 20+ years, I personally know phil as we're the same age. Phils up there most days also. Are you involved in COTA? Did you build the fucking trails? I did. I have been up there forever with a shovel and pick. What in the FUCK have you done for Bend?

I bet you are in cali or india working for a remote indian off-shore real-estate marketing company. Did you know that we don't even have a place to eat curry in Bend? If you ever do visit I suggest Super-Burrito its the best place to eat in Bend.

I have a $12,000 carbon fiber bike from Sunnyside. I keep it there at night in humidor for bikes.

Most of the jerks up at phils live in their beatup truck with cali and/or colo plates. Just like bend has always had board-bums, we have always had bike-bums.

Just because there are a couple dozen beat up trucks up at phils trail head during the day, with people living in them at night that seems to be your bellwether that bend is fucking awesome.

Just because there are a whole bunch of bike-bums in Bend this should NOT be an economic bellwether.

**

Regarding your questions ... I talk to these people ALL the time, as they're always getting lost in the Phil's Maze. The number of 30+ is few, most are 30-,


30-something Mt. bikers who they are?,


( on vacation )

what they do?

( some cubicle job in cali )

Regarding Phil's just the other day Outside Magazine had a story about how Bend is the best for bikes, turned out the story was written by a Bend PR firm, and published by Outside. If City money wasn't spent on PROMOTING phils, there would only be locals, this would be a good thing.

bendbutthead said...

San Franscisco is a place where lots of people, maybe most, are just getting by. So is Hong Kong.

*

SF has tons of home-less, its very easy there to be a slacker.

HK everyone work 12/hrs a day to just live, not a place to slack, most are NOT rich.

Does this have anything to do with Bend? nada

On the other hand Atlanta is a leading indicator of RE in the USA, because of Georgia's RE foreclosure law, which makes it possible to foreclose and auction in less than sixty days, we can see what Bend will look like in 1-2 years. I Oregon it takes generally a year to get auction a house and get them out.

In Atlanta they have it down to 30 days, capitalism at its perfection.

Since you brought up "people just getting by", this is how the world lives my friend.

As we have said in this forum MANY-MANY times, the ONLY person who thinks that Bend is special, is a person who has NOT traveled. The fact is the MAJORITY of mankind lead lives of desperation, and always have at all places.

Anonymous said...

"Regarding Phil's just the other day Outside Magazine had a story about how Bend is the best for bikes, turned out the story was written by a Bend PR firm, and published by Outside."

Interesting. I think this is entirely possible, especially if the local business community is as desperate as many here think. But would you care to provide some details about how you came to "know" this? Was it just a rumor, or do you actually have some verifiable info?

bendbutthead said...

But would you care to provide some details about how you came to "know" this? Was it just a rumor, or do you actually have some verifiable info?

*

God DAMN,this fucking issue is in this thread and very well written by BEM. Don't any of you ever fucking read anything? Just fucking search this thread for "outside".

Sheeeeeeeeeze, where does IHTBYB find these people????????????

Anonymous said...

It's about time. I found your site in Bend while searching for "condo whore" on Google.

My wife is one of your condo whores. The bitch has taken me for every dime. I moved to this town five years ago to "retire".

She got involved with Bend Real Estate and then divorced me. She got the house, and all our savings. I got the child support. She's going to be getting my pension. I had to pay for her lawyer.

My ex-wife now lives in my house with a boyfriend half her age. The kids have gone to live with my wifes mother.

I hate Bend. I'm now living in Montana.

BilboBend said...

{ Comparing Bend to other nasty little tourist towns }

Duncan,

Long ago I called you Ned Flanders, because like the Simpson's character to me you remind of that all to nice Christian character next door.

I say if you have a shop downtown, then as the Romans would say, "When do Rome, do as the Romans".

Its quite silly to be in "The Shire", "Bend as Aspen", and not to be selling high-end crap to tourists.

Given that the entire downtown is ONLY about separating money from tourists then that is what you should be doing.

Otherwise why be there?

I know your a nice guy, .... blah-blah, but nice guys finish last in a tourist town like Bend.

For instance you call the people in the street out of towner's selling elephant-ears, but I guarantee you that they're of town, they work the summer in the street, and spend winter in down in Mexico.

It's the same way in Friday Harbor, WS, e.g. San-Juans. It's all about tourism, just like Bend. What MOST people do in Friday Harbor is sell Fish & Chips on the street from May-Sep, and then spend Oct-Apr at their Mexican Hacienda.

If YOUR not playing this game, then what the hell are you doing in a tourist-town???

Let's MAKE perfectly clear that Bend is just a nasty little tourist town just like Friday Harbor. Real Estate and Cotton Candy. Just like Sisters.

Perhaps you need to focus more on internet sales? Websites, ... You obviously like to spend several hours/day on the computer, perhaps you need to create the greatest card-shop in the world on the internet??

Anonymous said...

Is there a full-length version of Sad Eyed Lady of the Lowlands on CD?

Anonymous said...

Yes, its on Columbia. The Columbian-Aircraft did a "sad eyed lady" in the lowlands of Madras.

It was dedicated to bringing coke in from India for dubya while he was in college.

Its still on 8-track, but it will be coming out on LP soon.

Anonymous said...

Menefee and Fraley, through their company, Fraley & Menefee LLC, are also involved in a hotel project in the Old Mill District and a retail-office project that broke ground recently on Northwest Newport Avenue.

“We had been eying the Liberty for a while,” Menefee said. “When there’s a seizure, hopefully there’s always an opportunity.”

***

Old Mill pimps when they aren't fucking their ho's or pimping them are brown nosing judges, and getting deals that mortals can only dream of.

Only in fucking Bend would a deal like this NOT go to public auction and get done by local Old-Mill boys.

Remember its not what you know, but you you blow.

Anonymous said...

"I'm on phils (sic) everyday, done so for 20+ years, I personally know phil as we're the same age. Phils (sic) up there most days also. Are you involved in COTA? Did you build the fucking trails? I did. I have been up there forever with a shovel and pick. What in the FUCK have you done for Bend?"

Fascinating.

You are, indeed, one of the heroes who helped to make Bend what it is, and I salute you.

Sounds like you're an expert on the streets of Hong Kong and San Francisco as well. Oh, and a world traveler. Enough to know that there's nothing special about some little city in Oregon where you can ride your mountain bike on an extensive trail system every day for the last freaking 20+ years.

Try that in S.F. Or H.K. Or (gee, dare we bring it up) fucking Atlanta.

No, nobody who has ever traveled the world has ever noticed anything special about Bend. Except, apparently, for the number of homeless mountain bikers who are purusing its trails with $15,000 bikes that they store in the backs of the beat-up pickups they live in.

I,for one, can't wait for the interviews that you no-doubt plan to publish with said homeless bikers in future posts, complete, for sure, with names, ages, etc. ... along with your analysis of the raw data (dare we hope?) of a survey of at least a day' worth of travelers on old Phil's Trail (I know Phil ... Phil is a friend of mine .. and Bendbutthead, you're no Phil...).

That's the least I would expect of the Bend Bullshitten, for chrissakes.

But so far, you haven't come close to providing even a half a step toward that much real info.

Just more sturm, drang, rant and bullshit.

Show me the data, jackass, or just shut the fuck up and suck your bitter lemons on your daily -- and bloody freaking special -- trail ride.

Anonymous said...

The Columbian-Aircraft did a "sad eyed lady" in the lowlands of Madras.

> In the day Jefferson Airplane.

Anonymous said...

the number of homeless mountain bikers who are pursuing its trails with $15,000 bikes - dumb bitch

*

Dear Dumb Bitch,

I have a $12k carbon fiber bike. I never said that the homeless have $15k bikes.

Most of those that live on the 'trail' do the Mrazek Trail, they don't ride at phils proper.

The homeless mostly live on the dirt-road afetr phil's where it crosses the Tumalo river. They generally like to camp near water. If you want to know about the lifestyle read the "How to cook chipmunk articles".

The homeless camp in the woods and do little biking. There are ton's of folks living on fringe of Bend these days. They didn't come to Bend to mountain-bike per Outside Magazine.

Learn to fucking read. Never post until you have first read IHTBYB's main post, and you have read the entire thread. Then and only then post.

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