tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post7735158231497281063..comments2023-07-07T00:32:17.629-07:00Comments on BendBubble2: Bend June 2007 -- Prelude To DisasterUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger240125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-89620543123604481392007-07-17T11:22:00.000-07:002007-07-17T11:22:00.000-07:00What did we learn today from the media??1.) We lea...What did we learn today from the media??<BR/><BR/>1.) We learned that Mexicans will be coming, second generation born in the USA, and that they'll come to Central Oregon and create the next generation housing boom.<BR/><BR/>2.) We learned that they'll keep building, until the prices collapse. <BR/><BR/>3.) We learned that all of Central Oregon are made up of Pessimists and Optimists. Pessimists are negative people, and optimists are happy positive people. There are no realists, only good and bad people.<BR/><BR/>4.) We learned that inventory is not a problem, only a major drop in prices would be a problem.<BR/><BR/>5.) We learned that sales volume of Real Estate is much lower today, than last year this time.<BR/><BR/>Did we actually learn anything? No, but remember its not what is said, but who said it. The status quo is telling us what to think, thus we need to be thinking why these new ideas are so important.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-67274873538858460282007-07-17T11:04:00.000-07:002007-07-17T11:04:00.000-07:00The decline is good news, right?( Yes, kids will b...<B>The decline is good news, right?</B><BR/><BR/>( Yes, kids will be able to buy homes again, and thus there will be some kind of fairy tale myth to motivate them. )<BR/><BR/><B><BR/>After all, we would like things to return to reality.<BR/></B><BR/><BR/>( Most folks can't handle reality, that might wreck their shopping day. Like Dubya said after 911, Just Go Shopping )<BR/><BR/>That goes for the federal government too. <B>In 2008 we have the chance at renewal and the chance NOT to elect the same swindlers. Or do we?</B><BR/><BR/>( Yeh, right Hillary Clinton { cheney-in-drag }, and Rudy-Gulliani { mr gun grabber }, the two choices. Things will be very different. Not. )<BR/><BR/>***<BR/><BR/>The only chance for 'renewal' is no chance, you have a sub-prime nation that is dependent upon China for money. Everything is made in China. Want a future? Move to China.<BR/><BR/>USA is simply a large prison, look what's going on this week in the media. Al-Queda is coming to the USA to do Iraq stuff, ... Time to have National-Id, beef up the borders... Are we trying to keep them out, or us in?<BR/><BR/>USA has already had its greatest day, its no different than the UK, which is about 15 years ahead of the USA in terms of economic and social disintegration. The only thing going for the USA is a large coal deposit, and empty land in the West. <BR/><BR/>Southwest has NO water, so they'll all be coming to the PNW in the next 20->40 years.<BR/><BR/>Elections and Politics has never been the solution to anything. This is such a pathetic debate, the simple fact that you can 'vote', e.g. pull a lever and then enjoy the ride. A democracy or government comes of the 'people', and the people of the USA are consuming parasitic locust.<BR/><BR/>Yes we have the Locust party-R, and Locust party-D. Both want to stay i n Iraq, Iran, Pakistan, & Afghanistan because this is where ALL the future oil and gas will be and those that control it, get the worlds gold ( note I didn't say paper money ). No matter what ms & mr America say about war, the war's will go on, this is why the stock market keeps going up. <BR/><BR/>Vote, and Vote often, but remember it will change Nada, both party's are owned by the same people.<BR/><BR/>Look at the little desert shit hole called 'bend-oregon', we have so called liberals and conservatives, but they both vote the same way, when boss-hog says jump they jump.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-71092424681724939682007-07-17T10:47:00.000-07:002007-07-17T10:47:00.000-07:00Now same story as the BULL, but here at KTVZ its j...Now same story as the BULL, but here at KTVZ its just the fact's mam. Note there is no dribble about optimists and pessimists. Just hard facts about the fact that homes aren't selling like they used to. What is MOST interesting is the statement to the effect that since they're NOT dropping we should keep building. It's not a problem that they're slow to sell. By golly if they ever start dropping, then and ONLY then will we keep building.<BR/><BR/>What is important, and NOT said with Bend's 1.5% drop in median, is that those zero-down homes will now have NO equity for appraisal, and thus cannot appraise nor REFI as promised. Now we wait a year for the true panic to begin.<BR/><BR/><BR/>***<BR/><BR/>Central Oregon home sales chill in '07<BR/><BR/>July 17, 2007 07:49 AM <BR/><BR/>Prices stall in some areas, still surge in others<BR/><BR/>By Barney Lerten, KTVZ.COM<BR/><BR/>The softer, sometimes conflicting picture of Central Oregon's real estate market deepened in the first half of 2007, with home sales off sharply but few signs of lower prices - and prices in some areas continue to surge, according to Central Oregon Association of Realtors figures.<BR/><BR/>Bend saw 850 home sales in the six-month period, down almost 26 percent from the first half of 2006, but the median sales amount rose more than 1.5 percent, to $349,250, though that's quite a drop, of course, from the big surge of prices in recent years. And it took an average 167 days to sell a Bend home, up more than 30 percent from a year ago.<BR/><BR/>Redmond saw an even steeper decline, with fewer than 300 homes sold, down 43 percent from 2006. The city's median home price basically held even at $255,000, while the average actually fell by almost 2 percent.<BR/><BR/>Sisters home sales in the first half of the year dropped almost 38 percent, and the median sale price slipped 3 percent, to $393,383. Sunriver saw a 23 percent drop in sales, but the median sales price still rose 3 percent, to $550,000.<BR/><BR/>In La Pine, the 31 first-half home sales were down almost 54 percent from last year, but the median sales price still jumped 20 percent, to $210,000, although the 201 average days on market was up a patience-testing 49 percent.<BR/><BR/>Jefferson and Crook counties also saw a steep decline in home sales, off 45 and 50 percent, respectively. But demand in the relatively cheaper home markets still kept prices on the rise. The median sales price in Jefferson County was up 12 percent, to $179,400, while Crook County's median price jumped 13.5 percent, to $210,000.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-13636964747205049512007-07-17T08:55:00.000-07:002007-07-17T08:55:00.000-07:00Google also moved into North Carolina for cheap po...Google also moved into North Carolina for cheap power and huge tax breaks. Oh, by the way, sorry about your RE market, but we have five months' inventory here in Portland, so, much as we'd like to move to Bend, we don't seem to be able to sell our house here. That and the median appears to be going down over here. So be patient.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-60864736384561174022007-07-17T08:54:00.000-07:002007-07-17T08:54:00.000-07:00The decline is good news, right?After all, we woul...The decline is good news, right?<BR/><BR/>After all, we would like things to return to reality.<BR/><BR/>That goes for the federal government too. In 2008 we have the chance at renewal and the chance NOT to elect the same swindlers. Or do we? Please no more "pro-lifers" for war, "compassionate conservatives" for torture, and "faith based" science.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-7486761107508107642007-07-17T08:53:00.000-07:002007-07-17T08:53:00.000-07:00Lots of opportunities for hobby ranching. Not sure...<B><BR/>Lots of opportunities for hobby ranching. Not sure what else, though, unless Microsoft sets up shop here. But hey, Hewlett Packard moved into Corvallis, so we can dream, eh?<BR/></B><BR/><BR/>HP moved OUT of corvallis a long time ago.<BR/><BR/>The only game is GOOGLE in the Dalles, but that is a cheap power server farm at an old aluminum mill site. The only local yoco they needs is janitors to sweep the floor.<BR/><BR/>Microsoft WILL NEVER setup anything in Eastern Oregon. <BR/><BR/>There will be NO more higher-ed investments in Oregon, that issue is dead, as less and less Oregon kids are going on to college.<BR/><BR/>Hobby Farming is right on, but it requires a retiree with money. A lot of our retirees lost money in DOT-CON, lost money Sub-Prime. The whole model was 10%/yr on your savings, risk free. It hasn't happened. I think they hobby-farm dream will be enjoyed by fewer and fewer retirees.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-70821646897714806972007-07-17T08:46:00.000-07:002007-07-17T08:46:00.000-07:00Kelleher, an 'optimist', thinks the region will sh...Kelleher, an 'optimist', thinks the region will shake off its excess inventory by spring 2009, ...<BR/>On the other hand,... the pessimists might be right about a longer downturn.<BR/><BR/><B><BR/>On the one hand inventory may sell, on the other hand inventory may rot.<BR/></B><BR/><BR/>Statements like this are pathetic.<BR/><BR/>Let's take Prineville, and Bend is the pretty much in the same situation. At the current sales levels it will take 27 years to clear inventory. That means for inventory to clear in 2-3 years that sales levels would have to rise ten-fold during the next 2-3 years. Given that MTG loan finance has been completely hosed, and the purchase of second homes is no longer easy. Where in the HELL are these buyers supposed to come from??<BR/><BR/>The only way that 'inventory' will completely sell, is if the prices fall to 1999 levels ( $120k ), and bargain shoppers step in, but unless major employers were to come into priny why would anyone tie up their money?<BR/><BR/>In Bend there are ton's of Siberian Tract Homes sitting. Even if the prices get VERY LOW, is that enough to get people out there?<BR/><BR/>I don't think that inventory will clear for a very long time. Money will longer be easy, and thus the level of sales will be just like it is now, only those that can buy will be buying. <BR/><BR/>Banks don't loan to developers anymore unless they can pre-sell 25% of the project, this is a nice way of saying the project cannot be financed.<BR/><BR/>The only hope is that a vast number of retiree's come to Bend in the next ten years, but note nobody is predicting this, they're predicting millions of second generation Mexicans.<BR/><BR/>Priny is MOST interesting to me, because in most situations I know, our Bendite sold his little mill-house in 2004, and used 1/2 for a Shevlin mcMansion, and put the other 1/2 of his cash into Priny as an 'investment', some 80% of all property in Priny is speculation. In 2004 everyone in Bend thought it was the next play.<BR/><BR/>Given that its going to take a generation to clear Priny inventory, in order for folks to get their money out prices will have to drop.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-49241512965031419272007-07-17T08:28:00.000-07:002007-07-17T08:28:00.000-07:00Does everyone notice that todays BULL article pret...Does everyone notice that todays BULL article pretty much is in agreement with everything said here to date!<BR/><BR/>Note, that NOT one Realtor was interviewed with story's about how things were going to get back next month.<BR/><BR/>Our optimistic 'builder' who is looking for land is quite fishy, my guess is that YA, if he could find a good deal on land, and hold for 2-3 years. Most developer/builders are trying to dump their project right now, and get out with their personal investment. Its a good time to cash out, and lay low in Mexico for 2-3 years and wait for the good times to come back.<BR/><BR/>So where we're at now is the BULL has admitted that for the next 2-3 years it going to be more of the same.<BR/><BR/>Now what needs to be admitted is the magnitude of the inventory problem. Like I posted a few months ago here, a major builder in Prineville told me there is almost 30 years of inventory at the current sales level.<BR/><BR/>The 'positive-spin' right now seems to be wait 2-3 years, and the inventory will be cleared, and things will once again be explosive.<BR/><BR/>The 'investors' are the ones getting hit on the sub-prime debacle. Interest rates are going to be VERY HIGH, which historically dampers price, and money will not be easy. <BR/><BR/>What is actually going to happen in the next 2-3 years is selling pressure. Clearing out ALL those who had NO business buying a second home in Bend, and those who had NO business buying a first home in Bend. Clearing out these folks is going to drive the price below $200k ( 1200 sqft base, small lot ). Once all the sub-primy's have cleared the pool price pressure will rise back up to 4X household income. Homes will be priced at levels real people can afford, and qualify for a loan.<BR/><BR/>The best advice for folks right now that follow this shit, if you don't own a home, and want one, is save yourself a down-payment, as big as you can. Fall of next year should be some of the best deals.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-46208521438645918072007-07-17T08:16:00.000-07:002007-07-17T08:16:00.000-07:00Kirk Schueler, president of Central Oregon's large...Kirk Schueler, president of Central Oregon's largest developer, Brooks Resources Corp., said he and the Brooks board of directors don't expect local housing prices and sales to stabilize, at this point, possibly until 2009. <BR/><BR/>( Yes, three years for the correction, one year has already passed, now we have two more. )<BR/><BR/>"I'd say it's going to be a good buyers' market for most of the next six to 12 months," Schueler said. "From July 2008 to July 2009, the market will get back to predictability."<BR/><BR/>( By the fall of 2009 all the resets will have forced foreclosure, all the bad news should be out, Wall Street should be out of the MTG biz, and Bank Financing should have re-invented itself. )<BR/><BR/>The only real wild-card here is that purchasing WILL never come to the 2002-2006 level as very few people have 20% down. Given that 80% of MTG's in 2005 were of low-down, its safe to say that current sales level that are seen now will continue. Only those that have good credit and a down-payment, will even be in the game. Which means fewer players.<BR/><BR/>The interesting thing about the article, while they agree that its going to take three years to 'recover' they don't touch the issue of price stability, other than infer that prices have held. In the next two years when the foreclosures start getting dumped, and the ARM's start making it too expensive to 'own a home', there will be lots of people WHO MUST SELL.<BR/><BR/>Those builders are smart they know the mexicans bought the low end and made the bubble, and they're counting on an influx of mexicans in the future to bring back the good times. The homes are going to have to get very cheap before vast amounts of mexicans come to Bend to buy homes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-12892025212775985062007-07-17T08:03:00.000-07:002007-07-17T08:03:00.000-07:00Fueled largely by immigrants and their native-born...Fueled largely by immigrants and their native-born children, the number of American households is expected to grow by 12.6 million by 2015, according to the Harvard study - about 2 million households more than the nation added between 1995 and 2005.<BR/><BR/>*<BR/><BR/>I hope somebody tells Pedro @ Super-Burrito that bend-bubble recovery is dependent upon him. All them second generation Latino's think of nothing else but Bend home ownership.<BR/><BR/>If I were running city council I would be buying time on the spanish cartoon channels, so that LA bambinos knew exactly how to find Bend when they were of age.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-74500963682508813442007-07-17T07:55:00.000-07:002007-07-17T07:55:00.000-07:00The sky is falling in Bend. More bad news from the...The sky is falling in Bend. More bad news from the "BULL".<BR/><BR/>***<BR/><BR/><B><BR/>Home sales continue decline<BR/>Median prices hold in Bend, Redmond<BR/></B><BR/><BR/>By David Fisher / The Bulletin<BR/>Published: July 17. 2007 5:00AM PST<BR/><BR/>Bend developer Darrin Kelleher says he's still in the market for buildable land in Central Oregon this summer, even though the housing market is "certainly on its nose."<BR/><BR/>The reason: Kelleher, a self-described optimist, thinks the region will shake off its excess inventory by spring 2009, opening the gates again - the gates, not the floodgates - to new growth.<BR/><BR/>On the other hand, the market numbers are bad enough right now that even an optimistic developer has to concede that the pessimists might be right about a longer downturn.<BR/><BR/>"It comes," Kelleher said, "with an element of fear."<BR/><BR/>In Bend, the region's most expensive market, 1,550 single-family homes without acreage, or homes on less than an acre, were for sale on June 11, according to Bratton Appraisal Group appraiser Mike Caba's tracking numbers, an inventory level that could take 10.9 months to sell if the average monthly sales rates of the first six months of 2007 continue to hold.<BR/><BR/>The number of houses for sale in Bend alone has risen 27.7 percent since the third week of January, according to Caba's numbers, but price and sales weakness have been evident all year in nearly all of the region's local markets.<BR/><BR/>In Bend, the median price of single-family homes without acreage sold in the first six months of the year stood at $349,250, or 1.54 percent above the first six months of 2006, according to the Central Oregon Multiple Listing Service. But sales numbers plunged 25.8 percent from the same period in 2006 to 850, dipping to levels not seen since 2003.<BR/><BR/>Redmond's sales slide was even steeper. Median prices held at $255,000 on non-acreage homes sold in the first six months, according to the MLS, but the city's 298 sales came up 42.9 percent short of the same period in 2006.<BR/><BR/>Long-term, the nationwide outlook for housing is "upbeat," according to a study released recently by the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University.<BR/><BR/>Fueled largely by immigrants and their native-born children, the number of American households is expected to grow by 12.6 million by 2015, according to the Harvard study - about 2 million households more than the nation added between 1995 and 2005.<BR/><BR/>That, combined with an "enormous growth in household wealth" over the last 20 years, "will help propel residential spending to new heights, the study concluded. But the nation's housing markets will continue to be dogged by price weakness and sluggish sales as long as affordability remains an issue and until current inventory levels, fueled by the speculative frenzy of 2004 to early 2006, dissipate. When that will occur, the Harvard study did not guess.<BR/><BR/>In Central Oregon, in-migration apparently continues. United Van Lines brought 290 new clients to Deschutes County alone in the first five months of this year, according to figures reported by Economic Development for Central Oregon. The bulk came from California, Arizona, Washington state and Texas. Only 155 moved out in United's trucks.<BR/><BR/>Wages in Deschutes County rose 5.8 percent from 2005 through 2006, according to the Oregon Employment Department, reaching an average of $16.02 per hour, or $33,329 a year per wage earner.<BR/><BR/>More ominously for housing sales, though, 30-year fixed mortgage interest rates rose to 6.6 percent in June, mortgage lending agency Freddie Mac said, up from 6.22 percent in January.<BR/><BR/>Kirk Schueler, president of Central Oregon's largest developer, Brooks Resources Corp., said he and the Brooks board of directors don't expect local housing prices and sales to stabilize, at this point, possibly until 2009. Brooks opted to pull the plug on a high-end riverfront townhome project in Bend earlier this year, partly because the company expects weakness to continue in that market for at least another year, Schueler said.<BR/><BR/>"I'd say it's going to be a good buyers' market for most of the next six to 12 months," Schueler said. "From July 2008 to July 2009, the market will get back to predictability."<BR/><BR/>Other local markets<BR/><BR/>In Sisters, non-acreage home sales slid 37.8 percent to 46 for the first half of the year, sliding below the pace of any year since 2002, according to the MLS, while median prices dipped only 3 percent from the first half of 2006, to $396,383.<BR/><BR/>On non-acreage home sales, only Jefferson County, home to resurgent Madras, and Crook County, home to Prineville, showed significant price gains over the first half of 2006, according to the MLS. Jefferson County's median price rose 12.2 percent to $179,400, although sales slipped 54.3 percent from the first half of 2006 to 76. Crook County's median price rose to $210,000, even though sales skidded 50.3 percent to 81.<BR/><BR/>In smaller market segments, homes on acreage in the Bend area logged the weakest sales through the first half of this year, according to the MLS. Only 68 Bend acreage homes sold - 50 percent off the first half of 2006, and 43.8 percent fewer than the first half of pre-boom 2003. Median sales prices on the acreage homes that did sell continued to rise, though, jumping 7.62 percent over the first half of 2006 to $600,000 - up from $310,000 in the first half of 2003.<BR/><BR/>Townhome and condominium sales, meanwhile, ran relatively strong in Bend and Sunriver through the first half of the year but slid in Redmond.<BR/><BR/>In Bend, 109 condos and townhomes sold in the first half of the year, according to the MLS, up 13.5 percent from the same time last year. Median prices held about steady at $315,000. Sunriver logged 31 sales, up 29.2 percent compared with the first half of last year, with prices also running about steady at $337,000.<BR/><BR/>In Redmond, condo sales plunged 55.8 percent to 23 compared with the first half of 2006, although median prices on the few sales that closed jumped 64 percent to $339,000.<BR/><BR/>Predictably, the sales of raw lots plunged in most markets, falling 38.9 percent in Bend with a 5.46 percent price reduction from the first half of 2006, and diving 41.9 percent in Redmond with a 28.6 percent price cut compared with the first half of 2006.<BR/><BR/>Bare lots, which are commonly sold to builders, logged a median price of $199,000 in Bend and $100,000 through the first six months of this year, MLS reported.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-76418330138487256882007-07-17T00:14:00.000-07:002007-07-17T00:14:00.000-07:00I can say one thing about Priny and that its NOT a...<B>I can say one thing about Priny and that its NOT a tourist town, do you see them trying to market it as such?</B><BR/><BR/>Well sorta- the Chamber of Commerce points to the golf course- (kind of a joke since; I'm not a golfer but there are obviously better courses in the area) the reservoirs and the Ochocos. They also point out that Prineville is "how the rest of America used to be" which appeals to some I suppose. There seems to be an influx of hunters in the fall.<BR/><BR/><B> Does Priny even have brewpub yet? Last time I was there all they had would was one bad Mexican restaurant as you came into town.</B><BR/><BR/>Brew pub is a topic of discussion with my crowd. I think P-ville could support a small one, or at least a place that sold tap Deschutes beer and pub food. I like to cook and think about opening such a place sometimes...yeah that Mex place coming into town is lame, worst service I've seen in awhile. <BR/><BR/>Restaurants: We buy Tacos Morales takeout 1-2x/wk, a little hole in the wall in the Ray's/Rite Aid shopping center towards the east end of town. Owners are a crackup and food is good. There's another Mex place going in, I think its part of a Bend chain. New pizza place just south of the new Starbucks (!!) is pretty good, far cry from Cinnabars- the worst pizza I've had, ever. Barney Prine's is the best semi-upscale place, not very trendy but they are trying. We go there pretty often- good steaks, prime rib, seafood (had some great sea bass there last Friday) and OK happy hour. Recently remodeled and pretty nice place. The Iron Butterfly (sheesh, why that name?) serves yuppie coffee and decent wanna be yuppie style lunches inside a home decorating store on Main Street. Dillon's is new, workin the cowboy theme, their "cook your own steak" business plan lasted about two weeks, now they offer regular semi-lame service and surprisingly good burgers...only place in town (besides the grocery store) that I could get an IPA. Then they quit carrying it- I asked why; waitress told me "IPA is GROSS". Customer isn't always right I guess...Tastee Freez serves buffalo burgers, right on the main drag, they could work the retro American Graffiti/Happy Days theme if they gave enough of a shit to fix their neon sign. We tried the local Chinese MSG Palace once, won't be back there anytime soon. Sandwich Factory makes pretty good, ah, sandwiches.<BR/><BR/><B>Yeh, the jeezus thing has always been big in Priny and LaGrande. Retiree's that love Jeezus, they're good people. Don't worry about red-necks it could be worse, you could be in LA-pines. That said if your not a red-neck or don't try to dress and look like one, then what the hell are you doing there?</B><BR/><BR/>Jesus is fine as long as no one tries to cram him down MY throat, or bring his opinions into the workplace, government, classroom or science lab. Some folks here forget that religion is a personal choice. <BR/><BR/>My blue collar days ended 30 years ago after two years in a MT sawmill, but rowing huge rafts on 2-week river trips and cooking for 30 people was pretty hard work. I wear Carhartts cuz they last a long time, so I sorta blend in I guess. Sometimes I wear em with Birkenstocks or thongs just for the hell of it. I even wear a cowboy hat out in the yard because my skin is shot from so much sun.<BR/><BR/><B>Priny's are armed to the teeth, always have been something about guns&jeezus, they go together like beer&pizza. Safe place, the kids might be bored, but your home isn't likely to get robbed, and your not likely to get mugged on the street.</B><BR/><BR/>Well I gotta admit we haven't been ripped off at all here, and we were robbed twice in Corvallis, while out of town over xmas.<BR/><BR/><B>Traffic, yes I agree there aren't enough cars in Priny to create the mess in Bend . Bend is cali where they go to the store ten times a day, the big SUV's literally never quit moving.</B><BR/><BR/>Actually, the main drag clogs up sometimes, pretty often actually. But it is nothing like Bend. Yet.<BR/><BR/><B>Priny folks freeze everything, most of them only need to go to the store monthly at best...these folks are efficient and optimal, no waste of anything.</B><BR/><BR/>Well its hard to argue with that kind of lifestyle. I can finally some local beef at the not all that bustling Saturday Farmer's Market, run with an iron fist by the local Breese family. There's a lady there selling eggs that are gone by 9:05am, a few wilted salad greens and some funky homemade soap. But its a start. I bought a shopping bag made out of a recycled feed sack for $10, I think I got ripped off, but the guy looked like he could use the money. Buying beef at Ray's that came from some fucking midwest feedlot sure doesn't make any sense when there are 5000 cows right out of town, and a few actually in town.<BR/><BR/><B>I would be surprised that MORE Mormons haven't started up there, as keeping two years of food at home is mandated and prinys were doing that before Joseph Smith was born. Priny's are ready for Armageddon and the second coming.</B><BR/><BR/>Big new LSD (I mean LDS, or maybe they really ARE all on acid) church was finished this spring. Cue the line from Poltergeist: "They're heeeerrre!"<BR/><BR/><B>I mentioned LaGrande, because it and Baker are very similar to Priny in terms of the old Oregon feel and attitude. Folks that want to move to Oregon to retire should really be looking there if they want something affordable and quaint.</B><BR/><BR/>You hit the nail on the head- that is the main appeal of this place. But it ain't that affordable anymore, getting closer to Bend and Redmond all the time, especially with those places dropping faster than here. My wife's folks moved from Bay Area to Sierra foothills, been in Cali their whole life. When they visit here they think they are in paradise, similar to their west Texas roots about 50 years ago. Lots of opportunities for hobby ranching. Not sure what else, though, unless Microsoft sets up shop here. But hey, Hewlett Packard moved into Corvallis, so we can dream, eh?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-36161712897169006782007-07-16T21:42:00.000-07:002007-07-16T21:42:00.000-07:00Normally I don't care much about the legal busines...Normally I don't care much about the legal business, as its too complex and convoluted for most loco-yoco. That said when the biggest legal cock in the PNW moves into little Bend, Oregon its time for part-time female impersonators to to say "Tits Up".<BR/><BR/>** <BR/><BR/>Two Significant Land Use Attorneys in Seattle Move to Schwabe, Williamson & Wyatt<BR/><BR/>Aggressive Growth Strategy of Firm and the Strength of Local Real Estate Market Prompt Acquisitions that Enhance Practice Group<BR/><BR/>SEATTLE--(BUSINESS WIRE)--In the world of land use, a legal professional’s status extends beyond the stature of the supported projects; it encompasses the ability to help clients navigate the legal process, defend properties against legal challenges and keep projects moving forward on schedule.<BR/><BR/>Recently, two of the area’s top land use attorneys, Curtis R. Smelser and Aaron M. Laing, joined Schwabe, Williamson & Wyatt in Seattle. Both Smelser and Laing are considered significant by these measurements, and bring their exceptional reputations and statewide practices to the firm. They moved to Schwabe from Ryan, Swanson & Cleveland effective July 1, 2007.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-89090355527686569812007-07-16T21:30:00.000-07:002007-07-16T21:30:00.000-07:00I'm trying to find my faddder. My mum just said he...I'm trying to find my faddder. My mum just said he goes by IHTBYoB in Bem, Or, does anyone know how I can find my fadder?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-72997097840899212272007-07-16T14:37:00.000-07:002007-07-16T14:37:00.000-07:00Trails here and there might be closed due to confl...Trails here and there might be closed due to conflict with hikers or horses, but overall I predict mountain bike access to remain good, or even improve over time.<BR/><BR/>*<BR/><BR/>The trails west and east of Bend were created by motorized vehicles the double track by jeeps, and the single by motorcycles.<BR/><BR/>The mtn-bikes came much later.<BR/><BR/>Regarding the blow-down up at Ochoco's, why not carry a chain saw in your rig if you come across it and clear it, that's what we used to do, that's why there trails. Same for motorcycles, there are chain-saw carriers now for motorcycles, so you can clear an old road if you come across blow-down. <BR/><BR/>On a bike you have no tools, and everything has to be brought in by wheel-barrow.<BR/><BR/>In summary, if there is a blow-down problem in the Ochoco's don't wait for the government to fix it.<BR/><BR/>The trails east and west of bend aren't created by the government, they're maintained by users.<BR/><BR/>The only thing that Government does is shut stuff down, and write tickets, ... <BR/><BR/>All the old trails that the mtn-bikers love so much are old motor-cycle trails, mrazek trail is just and old motorcycle trail.<BR/><BR/>COTA creates a few trails these days where motorcycle's have been banned, but there would be no trails if the motor-bikes hadn't made them 20+ years ago.<BR/><BR/>Motorized equipment will always be around, as there is no other way to get tools into remote areas to do work. It's better to use a quad to work remote areas than an excursion, escalade, or hummer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-75547876534252170552007-07-16T14:21:00.000-07:002007-07-16T14:21:00.000-07:00This would be a really depressing place to be youn...This would be a really depressing place to be young and single.<BR/><BR/>*<BR/><BR/>YUP, that's my opinion, I'm old and married, but my original young&single exposure to priny a zillion years ago is still there, first impression,... . Forty years ago you could blink driving through priny and miss the town, it was a lot like Sisters. <BR/><BR/>I can say one thing about Priny and that its NOT a tourist town, do you see them trying to market it as such?<BR/><BR/>My wife loves priny and always has, I would be bored to death there, I hate the one hour drive via Powell-Butte to Bend. I don't drink & drive, I like walking to the a 1/2 dozen brew pubs in five minutes or less. Does Priny even have brewpub yet? Last time I was there all they had would was one bad Mexican restaurant as you came into town.<BR/><BR/>Priny does have a lot of auto parts stores, one on every corner. Great place to be stuck when your rig breaks down. Just park at the RV park and your in walking distance to a dozen auto-part stores, and the folks at the RV park don't even question you about why your removing your drive train in the RV spot. Power, water, beer, its all there. I love priny. It's central oregon, the way it all used to be.<BR/><BR/>Yeh, the jeezus thing has always been big in Priny and LaGrande. Retiree's that love Jeezus, they're good people. Don't worry about red-necks it could be worse, you could be in LA-pines. That said if your not a red-neck or don't try to dress and look like one, then what the hell are you doing there?<BR/><BR/>Priny's are armed to the teeth, always have been something about guns&jeezus, they go together like beer&pizza. Safe place, the kids might be bored, but your home isn't likely to get robbed, and your not likely to get mugged on the street.<BR/><BR/>Traffic, yes I agree there aren't enough cars in Priny to create the mess in Bend . Bend is cali where they go to the store ten times a day, the big SUV's literally never quit moving.<BR/><BR/>Priny folks freeze everything, most of them only need to go to the store monthly at best, and then it would most likely be Costco or Walmart to FREEZE-UP.<BR/>This is why there are no restaurants there, or traffic. Never has been, never will, these folks are efficient and optimal, no waste of anything.<BR/><BR/>I would be surprised that MORE Mormons haven't started up there, as keeping two years of food at home is mandated and prinys were doing that before Joseph Smith was born. Priny's are ready for Armageddon and the second coming.<BR/><BR/>I mentioned LaGrande, because it and Baker are very similar to Priny in terms of the old Oregon feel and attitude. Folks that want to move to Oregon to retire should really be looking there if they want something affordable and quaint.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-85767970181407516122007-07-16T13:50:00.000-07:002007-07-16T13:50:00.000-07:00Neither place has local jobs that support the hous...Neither place has local jobs that support the house prices but that does not seem to matter so far.<BR/><BR/>*<BR/><BR/>Tahoe is close to Reno, there are many good paying jobs there.<BR/><BR/>Tahoe is a weekend resort for cali's in the bay. There will always be bay people with money.<BR/><BR/>Bend on the other hand, a lot of cali's that couldn't afford Tahoe said "I'll buy in Bend, and drive 8 hours, instead of 4". Thus now Bend has tons of empty second homes, it all worked when the market was appreciating 30% forever.<BR/><BR/>In the next 2-3 years things will start to matter, for no other reason than $5/gal fuel will hurt the 8 hr drive.<BR/><BR/>There will always be MORE disposable cash from the bay-ahrea, than PDX. Bend is NO Tahoe, and never will be, the Tahoe area has skiing choices in the winter, and summer recreation. Bend has an almost bankrupt ski resort, and lots of golf, that has a very short season.<BR/><BR/>The most well off people in Bend will be those that can soak the tourists of their 1/2 Billion sales in July/August and spend the rest of their time in the highlands of Mexico living the good life.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-3802032324834713692007-07-16T13:49:00.000-07:002007-07-16T13:49:00.000-07:00You should be within the inner mile radius of down...<B>You should be within the inner mile radius of downtown Bend, at least you can walk and bike around and people watch, ... Priny?</B><BR/><BR/>We would have preferred to live in Bend, but I didn't want my wife to have to commute to her agency job here in P-ville. And in hindsight we are VERY glad we didn't buy in Bend when we were shopping in late 2005 near the tail end of the frenzy. Things were/are overvalued here too, but I don't think quite as much as Bend. Time will tell...<BR/><BR/><B>Priny is just Madras in a hole. I can only imagine what Priny will be like if & when Les Schwab moves to Bend.</B><BR/><BR/>I think Prineville would survive, but it would be a hit. I know the bigwigs are moving to Bend, but its hard to imagine them building a new warehouse etc over there with land prices what they are. I think they will either keep those operations in Prineville, or move out of state if and when they get bought out. <BR/><BR/><B>Outdoors wise I do like Priny, the Ochocos are close by, and there will be no closure for a long time, the reservoirs have lots or rec. The only problem with Priny is the town.</B><BR/><BR/>The Ochocos are great, but they need a better trail system and maintenance. There are 100's of miles of logging roads, but the amount of blow down on them is huge. There are definitely some Neanderthal aspects to the town and the locals, I can testify to that. But it is changing, gradually, and there is a decent underground of educated, forward thinking people. To be fair, some of the traditional locals are actually pretty decent in a salt of the earth kind of way. But there's also strong contingent of big hat, big jacked up truck, overweight, cigarette smokin, Jesus freakin, dubya lovin tiny minds from out of the dark ages, towing around trailers full of ORVs they probably bought on credit. <BR/><BR/>And putting all the church names right there on the street signs? What is up with that? Improper mixing of church and state if you ask me.<BR/><BR/>This would be a really depressing place to be young and single. I am neither so that helps make it tolerable. The almost complete lack of a night life doesn't matter much to me. And Bend is pretty close if we need a fix of the enviro yuppie vibe. The upside to Prineville and downside to Bend is the traffic situation and number of cali dickheads in Escalades and Hummers who brought their lameass driving habits to Oregon.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-82613180246721185502007-07-16T12:42:00.000-07:002007-07-16T12:42:00.000-07:00I was up in Tahoe this past weekend. Hard to fin...I was up in Tahoe this past weekend. Hard to find a shack under 500K there. Bend is a much nicer and much cheaper place. Neither place has local jobs that support the house prices but that does not seem to matter so far.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-53952594282228565742007-07-16T11:27:00.000-07:002007-07-16T11:27:00.000-07:00Prineville has taken some getting used to after li...Prineville has taken some getting used to after living in Flagstaff and other college towns <BR/><BR/>*<BR/><BR/>You should be within the inner mile radius of downtown Bend, at least you can walk and bike around and people watch, ... Priny? <BR/><BR/>Priny is just Madras in a hole. I can only imagine what Priny will be like if & when Les Schwab moves to Bend.<BR/><BR/>Outdoors wise I do like Priny, the Ochocos are close by, and there will be no closure for a long time, the reservoirs have lots or rec. The only problem with Priny is the town.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-88084139396981686232007-07-16T11:18:00.000-07:002007-07-16T11:18:00.000-07:00I don’t think this is going to happen anytime soon...I don’t think this is going to happen anytime soon. Bike tourism is an important part of the mix for Bend<BR/><BR/>**<BR/><BR/><B>The motorbikes you can hear coming and basically have an hour to hide or clear off trail</B>, these days whether I'm hiking or biking by myself I dread the thought of an oncoming mtn-biker with no warning. They're going as fast as they can, and I have NO IDEA of what they're looking at, it certainly isn't the trail ahead of them.<BR/><BR/>I get run off the trail almost daily in the Phil's complex. I have had a lot of friends badly hurt being run off the trail. Its exactly like the snow-boarder's on the mtn, the difference is when people get hurt in the woods nobody hears about it.<BR/><BR/>For the past twenty years since the mtn-bike thing has taken off, I dread hiking in the dense forest knowing that folks are coming down hill in silence with NO intention of slowing down.<BR/><BR/>I think ALL need their places, the motorcycle people, quads, mtn-bike, hikers, ...<BR/><BR/>These days @ phil's or wherever you have the joggers, who want it for themselves, the bikers who want it for themselves, the dog people who just don't want to get ran over, ... <BR/><BR/>I think there's going to be big change and closures in and near Bend very quickly in No-AZ the excuse may be fire, but here in the Bend area the excuse will be the crowds.<BR/><BR/>Bike tourism is NOT the owner of the forest, they may think they are, but the Forest-Service is mandated for multiple-use, not single use.<BR/><BR/>Sadly most snow-boarders are out of control and most mtn-bikers are the same folks in a different season, out of control. My guess this what you get when you have lots of 'kids' ( 15-40 ) who are spoiled by their parents. The good news is that with the RE depression coming, times are a-changin,<BR/><BR/>Why do so many snow-boarders collide with skier's?? Why do so many of the same mtn-bikers collide or drive other mtn-bikers off the trail?<BR/><BR/>Lastly, since the 'bad' mtn-bikers are really only concerned with fixed objects ( rocks, trees, ... ), what I do is hold my ground, and basically play chicken, they themselves either go off trail or stop. I have found that giving them passage or way, just gives them the chance to knock someone over, and they NEVER look back.<BR/><BR/>I love to MTN bike, but the whole thing reminds of of Amity and the "JAWS", everybody in this little tourist town is making money on mtn-biking, and nobody wants force any kind of safety, "it might offend the tourists".Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-48516257527753674722007-07-16T10:57:00.000-07:002007-07-16T10:57:00.000-07:00There are some very good deals, I'm talking $500/a...<B>There are some very good deals, I'm talking $500/acre or less.</B> <BR/><BR/>I was primarily talking about houses in town, not bare land out in the sticks. At the price you cite, I would guess you are talking about areas a ways out of town, probably east of town. East of east bumfuck, we used to call that area- where the wind howls 366 days per year. You are also probably going to be hauling water.<BR/><BR/>I’ll admit that the best deals are to be found under the radar, houses or bare land regardless. But I think I got a pretty good feel for the local market- remember I lived there for 24 years. I do know a few people, some of whom are in real estate.<BR/><BR/><B>I hope you didn't mean you raft 3 times a year, because you can only get a permit once every ten years by lottery. The price of a commercial trip is now $4k, which would be $12k/yr to float down the river.</B><BR/><BR/>Yes, I’m familiar with access issues and how expensive commercial trips are. I could not afford one. I worked as a guide for many years. I take researchers down the river now and do a private trip about once every ten-fifteen years. <BR/><BR/><B>I remember back in the mid 80's Flagstaff was a dirty little high-mtn town, cold as hell in the winter.</B><BR/><BR/>It’s still cold as hell in the winter except nowadays, it doesn’t snow. Just blowing dirt and dust for about 5 straight months. I’m a huge fan of winter, was a fanatic skier for decades, but in my book 10-30 degrees and windy, without any snow for months at a time is SHITTY weather!<BR/><BR/><B>WRT to closure JUST hold on, they're already talking of closing ALL central-oregon national-forests to Motorcycles, and bikes will be next.</B><BR/><BR/>WRT to national forest land being closed to motorcycles, couldn’t happen a moment too soon. And ORVs are even worse because they need what are basically small roads rather than trails. A pox on the landscape driven mainly by fatass rednecks too lazy to get into the backcountry under their own power. And with 5 orthopedic operations over the past 25 years on three different parts of my body, I don’t buy the argument that ORVs are needed so people with disabilities can get out in the wilds. <BR/><BR/>WRT bicycles, I don’t think this is going to happen anytime soon. Bike tourism is an important part of the mix for Bend, and while bikes have their impacts, per capita they are a fraction of motorized recreation. Regardless of the extent to which the local tourism board influences write-ups about Bend in mags such as Outside, Bend is rightfully known for world class mountain biking, and the trail system is getting better all the time. Trails here and there might be closed due to conflict with hikers or horses, but overall I predict mountain bike access to remain good, or even improve over time.<BR/><BR/>WRT to a college- I agree that adds a lot to the vibe in Flagstaff. I miss college town amenities a lot. Prineville has taken some getting used to after living in Flagstaff and other college towns my whole life up til now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-14339995166617586152007-07-16T09:24:00.000-07:002007-07-16T09:24:00.000-07:00"I own property near Flagstaff, and its cheap..."*..."I own property near Flagstaff, and its cheap..."<BR/><BR/>*<BR/><BR/>The original subject here was Juniper Ridge, and about building world-class campuses in the desert.<BR/><BR/>There are only a few Flagstaff was mentioned, as a nice little campus in a desert town similar to Bend. If I remember right, UofAZ-North (Flagstaff) is most known for party and football.<BR/><BR/>The only good little desert school that I can think of is Socorro, NM.<BR/><BR/>Given that the 'news' today has put a death-warrant out on Oregon higher-ed, I think we an assume there will be no Bend University in our lifetime. Unless of course the population does tenfold,... but thats another story, and not likely to happen for a long-long time.<BR/><BR/>Is Flagstaff cheap? If you stay away from the little tourist magazines, and get to know some old timers that that want to sell off a little land on contract under the table so they don't get hit up on taxes, yes very cheap.<BR/><BR/>Northern Arizona has many people that are completely off the grid. Like that movie "Tremors" a few years ago its a very accurate description of Northern Arizona Locals.<BR/><BR/>Sadly Bend is a very different story, Bend is more about shit eating yuppies and old timers trying to learn about wine so they can talk like them. Comparing Northern Arizona and Central Oregon is a completely different animal.<BR/><BR/>The reason is that BOTH are largely southern cali transplants. The difference is that the MALL people moved to Bend, and the people trying to get away from MALL's moved to Northern Arizona. Thus, the two places a very different mindset. Then there are the weekender's that come up from phoenix, which of course is LA. These are ALL MALL people, generally Northern Arizona folks hate their southern neighbors. Just like No-calis despise So-calis.<BR/><BR/>Then there is Bend a beautiful place of beautiful condos and beautiful people selling them. A place that all magazines describe as #1, a place where a large portion of the taxpayer base is used to pay these magazines to say these good things. Indeed Bend is a beautiful place.<BR/><BR/>The difference between Bend & Arizona is that the folks of North-Arizona are armed to the teeth, and if politicians squandered money in No-AZ, the way they do in Bend, well ... You just to have to watch Tremors.<BR/><BR/>Central Oregonians have always been a bend-over and take it in the ass kind of people. Why? Its not really clear. Fear? Isolation? Greed? Exceptional-ism? What we do know is that change is happening so fast that most of the old time central Oregonians don't even know that things have changed.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-70718606267982253842007-07-16T08:15:00.000-07:002007-07-16T08:15:00.000-07:00I looked through several real estate mags when I w...<B><BR/>I looked through several real estate mags when I was there in April. My impression is that Flag real estate is now at least as expensive as Bend, maybe more expensive. MR AZ<BR/></B><BR/><BR/>My wife looks at those pretty real estate mag's also. By the time that stuff gets in those it's been on the market for years, usually over-priced dogs.<BR/><BR/>The good stuff is always the stuff by word of mouth or hoof.<BR/><BR/>By hoof I mean getting out of your car and talking to locals, spending some time getting to know people who know people who have land to sell on contract. There are some very good deals, I'm talking $500/acre or less.<BR/><BR/>The entire corridor of Prescott to Sedona is the second MOST over-priced after Bend in America. Thus its going to fall, just like Bend.<BR/><BR/>I hate Sedona because its $5 to park your car.<BR/><BR/>I do think that Flagstaff is special.<BR/><BR/>I hope you didn't mean you raft 3 times a year, because you can only get a permit once every ten years by lottery. The price of a commercial trip is now $4k, which would be $12k/yr to float down the river.<BR/><BR/>The reason that Flagstaff was brought up was the subject of nice little desert college towns. I guess we eat different food, I like pub food, and I find that the nightlife is fantastic in Flagstaff.<BR/><BR/>The other similar thing to me between Flagstaff & Bend is timing, I remember back in the mid 80's Flagstaff was a dirty little high-mtn town, cold as hell in the winter. Bend was the same way at that time, just a quiet little town. Both have become hot spots in the 90's with lots of investment. Very similar.<BR/><BR/>WRT to closure JUST hold on, they're already talking of closing ALL central-oregon national-forests to Motorcycles, and bikes will be next. You currently can no longer ski with your dog in the winter around Bend, in the summer you cannot hike. Closures come where ever there is MONEY and where ever the new rich folks want the old white trash locals to stay out.<BR/><BR/>Just like Sedona on the north side where you now have to pay $5/day just to park your car on the road in order to hike or swim in the canyon south of Flagstaff. The same exact SHIT is coming to Bend.<BR/><BR/>Closures are the future. Permits and high costs are the future, get over it, like you said in Flagstaff you can head up to Utah and be free, and likewise in Bend you can head out towards Burns to be Free.<BR/><BR/>The point of the original thread was that Bend would be quite nice if there was a college like Flagstaff has where our Old-Mill Mall currently is-is.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3449433527135568372.post-40246150100680195372007-07-16T07:58:00.000-07:002007-07-16T07:58:00.000-07:00Ed Abbey put it "a little cancerous piece of LA th...Ed Abbey put it "a little cancerous piece of LA that someone planted in the desert and added water to." <BR/><BR/>>>> Bend - OregonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com