Monday, June 18, 2007

Duncan McGeary - Genius For Mayor

Well, before you get started Bend-Bilbo-Bust-Baggins... I DO like Duncan. He does one thing you and I and almost everyone else in the Bend RE-bashing blogosphere does not do: He does NOT post anonymously.

The guy's got rocks.

OK, I have whomped on the Bulletin and many others about their almost complete lack of editorial standards, the blatant misstatements of fact by local Realtors and the 100% pass they've received, and one hell of a lot of other pretty unpopular opinionating. Alas, I have done it behind a think veil of anonymity, like a quivering puddle of spineless goo that I am. But there is strength in numbers, and I am at least redeemed, in part, in that so does almost everyone else. Face it: RE interests have their tentacles in almost everything around here, and giving them a nice public thumping will have deleterious effects on just about any business person or employee.

Not Duncan. The guy makes comments that are probably not popular with Bends landed set about the state of the Bend RE market. Now he's taken a fair amount of abuse for being mealy-mouthed, "Flander-ish" and other such nonsense. OK, the difference between him & his accusers is that he takes personal accountability for his statements, and you & I do not. He has to LIVE WITH WHAT HE IS SAYING. He has to pay his rent, after saying he thinks his rent is too high! He has to run his business. People can walk in his store & ask him about what he's saying. Neither I nor anyone else I know of is subject to similar scrutiny.

OK, so you can whomp on him all day long, but your anonymous rants don't have any repercussions on your life or business, his do. He HAS TO watch what he says, it impacts his life. Your comments & mine do not. I do not agree with everything Duncan says, but I at least have the clarity of mind to know, that given the nature of his posts & the impact they have on his business:

The Guy's Got Rocks.

OK, so what's with this Duncan, Genius For Mayor stuff? Well, I should say that I personally don't know Duncan, have been in his shop rarely, and really don't even understand the nature of his product offering, that nevertheless Duncan is the kind of guy I would LOVE to have in some sort of local P/T political office.

Would I agree with him 100% of the time? Almost certainly not. I'll bet right here and now that he's Democrat. I consider myself Republican and would vote thusly, were the entire Republican party not populated by turds. I'd vote Dem, but the turds over there are larger & more numerous. Hell, my guy last time around would have been Sharpton! You have to admit... it'd been a hell of a 4 years!

Anywho, I wouldn't want Duncan (or anyone) in office who parrots my political leanings, but someone who knows what the hell is going on. I'm not sure how to best characterize someone like this, but the best I can think of is "Tinkerer", and "Do It Yourselfer".

Before I go on about that, I should say that Duncan, his business, and his views on just about anything would hold ZERO interest for me if his blog had turned into a self-serving, self-ingratiating marketing instrument for his business. You think about downtown Bend business owners, and the nature of this town and it would be extremely easy to fall into this trap. I would say there is a 95% chance that a businessperson starting a similar blog in Duncans place would go this way. Woof, dead boring. Had Duncan gone this route, I would have lost interest in about 2 seconds. Or less.

But he didn't. He went the authentic route. The high credibility route. It would have been DAMN EASY to get into glad-handing self-congratulatory crap. But he didn't. THIS is something MANY people in this town can learn from. People are tired of bullshit. Realtors: you want some credibility? Hang it out there, warts and all. Stop saying that everything is peaches & cream. You'll have more credibility, faster than you will EVER have by LYING to The Bulletin about how well you aced The Creating Perceived Shortages Community College course last year. Beware: People can spot bullshit in all it's forms 5,000,000 miles away, and you will be ridiculed till the cows come home. Then the cows will ridicule you.

OK gentle reader, I ask you to go to & read Duncans blog. He runs a "comic book" store, and you might think, "Hell, that doesn't apply to me!". Think again. I actually read Duncans blog & find much that applies to almost any business, and especially Bends local economy, specifically the RE market.

He's a tinkerer. You can tell. His store is like a little laboratory. And I can tell you that as a business person, I do the same thing. Try X, see what happens, try Y, see what happens, learn little rules of thumb, spot strange little correlating trends, walk by storefronts, watch the other guy, pump him for info mercilessly, REPEAT. I can tell you this: Duncan doesn't go home, and "turn off". It's always going, his mind is just churning through every little thing. He's in some small way tormented by it. It's kind of staked out a little fort in his head, and it goes to Astoria or where ever, and it makes him go into tinkering mode even when he's on vacation. It makes him worry about B&N. He's a tinkerer, and his business is like Flubber. I'm also a tinkerer, but unfortunately my stomach is like Flubber.

I also KNOW this, he watches every little thing in his store, and gets nervous about success, failure, and all things in between. What about todays Big Sellers? Could be a store crushing fad (sound like anything?) of tomorrow. What about cash-flush competitors, should he double up on (graphic novels|comics|etc) that they are cashing in on? I read Duncan's comments on how he stocks inventory & monitors sales, and it takes me back to my school-girl days teaching Finance. It's basic portfolio management. The ONLY FREE RIDE in investing is diversification. Hold too much of one thing, or group of things, and they will sooner or later take you out. Applies to comic book stores, stocks, industries, or just about anything.

Duncan is about the only store of his kind left in Bend. Why? Did he sneakily outfox them? Lower costs? Inside deals with The Man? Alas, I think not. He invested better. When others saw a winner, they doubled down, and doubled down again. Duncan probably doubled down once or twice, but at some point probably had to make payroll (& rent) out of his own pocket, and swore "Never Again!". One sector comprising 80-90% of sales can be a killer when the trend goes "Pogs" on you.

Another thing I can just about bet is a dead-lock, is that Duncan has probably never hired a high-priced marketing firm to shamelessly flog his business. "Behind the times", "Out of touch", you say. Get jiggy, Duncan! How about that Unifi web app start-up I read about a few days ago... they are starting up a little medical web app business, and when you read on, you see the founders have almost ZERO direct knowledge of the technology that will essentially BE that business. They hired that work out to some local tech outfit. They are purely a marketing front-end.

I would bet this is not Duncan's bag. He does his own marketing, if any is to be done (probably not, that's what his location is for). He does his own (financial) books (maybe). He's pretty damn connected with each & every little thing. It's part of the tinkering thing. It's hard, if not impossible for him to not at least try to become acquainted with every piece & part of his business. You can tell. Read his blog. Personally I think his blog is a marketing master stroke. Ahead of the curve, executed well, authentic, credible, wide ranging, insightful & interesting. I read it everyday.

And I'm sure that Duncan may object to this lovefest, and say, "You've got it all wrong! I don't know what the hells going on half the time!" Well, that is far more often the mark of intelligence than smug know-it-alls. I don't trust know-it-alls, and man is this place overrun with them. I trust someone who is curious, admits they don't know the answer, investigates to the best of their ability, assimilates their findings with past knowledge, and humbly and with some dash of uncertainty, tells me what they "think" is going on, with healthy dashes of self-skepticism. Boorish know-it-alls are almost always wrong. They are usually far more concerned with their own self-image than the truth.

OK, so Duncan's the greatest guy in history, big whoop. Well, I'm hoping that the point of my blog is to inform & educate people primarily. Some think it's about bashing the hell out of Bend RE, which frankly I could give a damn about, and that's IF it were even possible, which I doubt. And a blog by a guy running a comic book store, may not seem a good source for political insight, much less real estate insight, but look again. Duncan OUTLASTED a lot of "trend-followers" who jumped on the latest FAD. When others concentrated, he DIVERSIFIED. He gets NERVOUS when ONE SECTOR takes on TOO MUCH IMPORTANCE. He watches his COSTS, and watches THE OTHER GUY. His first concern isn't cashing in on TODAYS BIG THING, it's NOT GETTING CARRIED OUT tomorrow. He probably doesn't delegate LEARNING about his business to SOMEONE ELSE.

Any of that sound applicable to a certain Bend industry? Could our beloved City Counsilors learn a thing or two about this? There is much to learn, and the best sources are usually in the nooks & crannies you least expect. So I nominate Duncan McGeary for Mayor. Or City Counsilor. Or something. Just get someone in there that thinks, investigates, and has some common sense, and doesn't delegate out Their Job. Not someone who basically sees public service as a stepping stone for backdoor deals for their business or becoming part of the Old Boy Network.

39 comments:

Anonymous said...

I enjoy Duncan's thoughts on things in Bend.He has been here a long time and has perspective I do not. One of these days I need to get in his place and BS with him.Anyone who can run a business in this town for as long as he has is deserving of respect. I would vote for him if he ran for a city office.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Anyone who can run a business in this town for as long as he has is deserving of respect.

Damn right. I know Duncan wouldn't ask this, so I will: Go into his store. I am so not his target market, it's not even funny, but the few times I've been in there, there's always been several things of interest. Hell, go in & see a Bend retailing success story, if nothing else. You will probably be surprised... it's a neat place & a case study in Making It In Bend Retail Through Hell & High Water.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

173 Comments!

Damn. Thanks to all who put a lot of time, effort, and thought into this thing. Some put in more time & effort than I do.

I read all the comments and frankly find them of more value than much of what I write. The wide-open nature of zero moderation lets a few things that I probably wouldn't let thru get published (Timmy Tw@t?... my Lord...), but alas I determined from the start that I'd take the good with the bad, as my opinion of both can be faulty.

Thanks again to all!

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

For those interested in paying Dunc a visit... he's almost always there when I've walked in. Sometimes he's pretty damn busy, so he might not have the time to get his brain picked or vice versa. He's got a good store there:

Pegasus Books
105 NW Minnesota
Bend, OR 97701
541-388-4588


Google Map:
http://tinyurl.com/28kqbf

Duncan McGeary said...

Nuts.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Another parallel I can draw from the Vast Duncan Reserve of Accumulated Knowledge of Running A Comic Book Shop is this: It's a lot like

Betting On Horses

Ever notice that whoever runs first on the 1st & 2nd races of the Triple Crown is damn near always favored to win races 2 & 3, respectively? Even though the correlation of a horse winning one race to the next is exceptionally low.

It's the recency effect, a trait humans seem to have despite much statistical evidence that shows it is a poor predictor in many facets of life. The triple crown is rarely won, because horses serial win rate is so poorly correlated. A horse winning today, statitically tells you damn little about whether they'll win tomorrow.

But people notoriously overestimate the importance of recent events. Look at the 11 homes in May that sold for over a mill in Bend, up from the 1-3 that has been the norm for many, many months. What's your guess for June $1MM+ sales? 4? 5? I mean the statistically dominant choice should be 1-3, but a hell of a lot of people will guess higher.

Look at Duncans store: A lot of boom/bust fads thru the years: pogs, sport cards, all sorts of stuff. The natural human inclination with any one of them is to probably say, "No, this time it REALLY IS DIFFERENT! I'm going to cash in on this badboy, cuz this time it's real & this time it's going to last!" That's betting that the horse that's winning today will win tomorrow, and he might, but in the long haul it's a poor betting strategy.

Show me someone who exhibits a strong recency effect personality, and I'll show you a person who probably bought NASDAQ stocks in 2000, and probably speculated on Bend RE... and may still be doing so. Old habits die hard.

My own little nugget: I always bet on #2 to win. #1 is usually "over-hyped" and too subject to the recency effect, while the rest have to get by on talent, and are conversely "under bet". Look who won the last race... Look back on the "Pick Number #2 to win" record, it's not bad. My wife, who forgets more about horses in 5 min than I'll ever know, is always surprised at my win record.

Betting on the ponies is much like betting on fads: The Big Favorite is usually not that big, and the other stuff is better than you think.

Anonymous said...

Bend-Bubble History to Date

Let's look at the significant points of interest to date.

Aug2005 - Gastronomy Magazine announces Bend next Aspen culinary ... This is where the bend-bubble peaked

Sep2006 - The-Shire ( Bree like Hobbit fiasco ) is marketed worldwide, entire WORLD shakes head at Bend. This is where the Bend-Bubble blew its load.

June 2007 - Bend RE & MTG executives tell public that the party is over. This is where the masses were told they were screwed.

July2007 - Bend Real-Estate & Mortgage lay off 90% of staff. This is where the masses will be punished for 'their' excess.

Sep2007 - Only Mexican owned and operated Restaurants in Bend survive. Major's national chains on I-97 survive. Mill District becomes super-walmart. This is when folks will re-adjust to a new lifestyle of spending.

Dec2007 - Bulletin lays off 90% of staff as advertising revenue plummets. This is when 'blogging' will be your ONLY new's source for a long-long time.


***

Anyone want to place bets or alter the past & future from the above?

Anonymous said...

Let me guess, the above post is bendbust aka Pedro,aka pietro.

IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

Let me guess, the above post is bendbust aka Pedro,aka pietro.

Nah! Dude. It's another dude, who has totally figured out cut/paste, post-Happy Hour.

Anonymous said...

How did Duncan die? The obituary doesn't say??

Duncan McGeary said...

We've come not to praise Duncan, but to bury him.

Duncan McGeary said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
IHateToBurstYourBubble said...

We've come not to praise Duncan, but to bury him.

OH CRAP! He's blogging from beyond the grave! Oh no, he's eating his only employees head! Die Zombie Duncan, DIE! He must not realize the high cost of employee retention in this town...

DIE!

BENDBUST said...

The fun's over let's get back to the bend-bubble.

It' sunday time for ALL go up to NW-XC and take pic's, its time for folks on the west to scout on west, and eastside 'types' to scout east. Remember its best to walk and bike to see stuff.

We should expect full reports this eve, hopefully that will get us back to the bubble.

I really don't know what is worse the 'timmy-twat' adolescent one-liners, or the three-party circle-jerk.

Certainly the debate should be on the Bend-Bubble. IHTBYB should write his weekly report on such and move-on.

I'm sure the powers in Bend recognize that all elected officials should resign and duncan, bem, and ihtbyb should take over luv-guv-mint.

Let's get back to bashing realtors, mortgage brokers, and boss-hogs.

With the exception of the adolescent one-liner folk { you know meth this, and my pee-pee that, ... } everyone here has something to say. Anonymity allows us all to say what we want, and I'm sure at times that Duncan also posts anonymously. Let's not get off track from the goal here.

Lastly, if you folks REALLY want to sponsor Duncan for office, get together a fund, we can do it anonymously and post to duncans paypal account, for some banners and such, and bumper stickers that say to effect "Save Bend, Duncan for Mayor", ... We could have a separate blogsite, and just let it roll.

My only comment is that duncan's biz has lasted 27 years, getting involved in gub-mint could be the distraction that kills his golden-goose.

Duncan McGeary said...

Duncan McGeary -- Zombie for Mayor

Braaaaaiins.....! Must eat brainssssss....!

Duncan McGeary said...

Sorry, Bendbust, didn't mean to step on your message.

I haven't posted anonymously -- yet. Can't promise I never will, though.

I don't take this in the least bit seriously. I'd be a horrible politician, really, really horrible.

I see it as a manifestation that we all wish some person could get elected, without an agenda, who was willing to say hard things. But no one who is that forthright could, and maybe they shouldn't. Politics being the art of compromise and all.

Besides, I don't think us bloggers have that much influence, whatever we might like to think.

And yeah, if I could free up time from my business, I'd be sitting on the beach.

Whatever you might want to think about politicians,at least they are committing the time. Watching the city council on T.V., it's pretty clear they all have do a bunch of homework.

Bend Economy Man said...

I agree with BendBust that this has been fun but it's time to open up a new econ post.

On Saturday afternoon CNN Money reported that Bend has been rated the most overvalued housing market in the USA: 78%!!

Think the local media will pick that up?

Anonymous said...

Most of the undervalued places are places no one aspires to live. Who in their right mind wants to live in Wichita? Bend prices are too high but if you notice so is Flagstaff, which I would consider a more similar, nice place to live. I guarantee people aren't going to start packing their bags for Dallas unless they really don't care where they live.

Bend Economy Man said...

Who in their right mind wants to live in Wichita?

The minority of people who live in Bend and are in a good financial position are truly blessed.

But who in their right mind would take a low-paying job s/he's overqualified for, barely able to make ends meet now (let alone planning for the future), just to live somewhere where others "aspire to live"?

Whatever you want to say about Dallas, wealth-wise it's worlds ahead of Bend.

And whatever you and your ilk want to say about how irresistible Bend is, truth is that home sales have fallen off a cliff to decade lows and tourism peaked a couple years ago. So--news flash--desire has its limits. Maybe you need to get out of town a couple times a year, if you can afford it. Hopefully customers tipped you well this weekend.

BENDBUST said...


I don't take this in the least bit seriously. I'd be a horrible politician, really, really horrible. - duncan


I wasn't sure, I have always seen this group as the Simpsons, and you being the nice guy { flanders }, and I want to be Bart. Everyone else has to figure out who they are.

I think your making a wise decision. In my years having known a lot of poly-tick-ians { many-blood-suckers } I have noted, that most are un-employable. H.L.Mencken said it best, but that's another story. You have made it 27 years, and I doubt your biz could survive if you jumped on another 12-hr/day job.

At least the other's gave a vote of confidence. So I guess its official we all don't have to ante $100 or more to Duncan's campaign fund via paypal.

There are some that have done this just for the record, Bud-Clark of PDX { finest-rubens on the planet }, ran for mayor, because his PBR buddy's at the pub thought he could do just well. Sort of like this group supporting you, and bud was a fine mayor for two terms. That said I know what he went through, the food inspectors & OLCC{ state/county } were micro-analyzing his biz { goose-hollow } every time they had a chance. I think that's what finally got him out of politics and he stayed out. Your really have to have NOTHING to lose, because they'll find your 'soft-spot' and push hard to control you, especially if you were like bud who tried to change the way the 'cop-shop' did business.

By this I mean, one of his pet peeves was to NEVER call the cops, because when he did, all they did is come over and beat-up his customers, which is bad for business. As mayor he tried to change the way they did biz, he fired the police chief, but not much changed.

I think Bend is similar there is a systemic cruise-control, folks are used to doing things, and change is very hard.

Bud-Clarke had been angry about what they had done to PDX, and he did make a lot of changes.

I'm certain if you wanted it you could have it, NEVER underestimate the power of a dozen people committed to a project, especially when they're working for FREE.

Given that you only have a book shop, I'm not sure how bad 'they' could squeeze you to control you. But I certainly do agree with you, life is SHORT and that little time we have when we're NOT WORKING should be spent doing something you love.

Anonymous said...

On Saturday afternoon CNN Money reported that Bend has been rated the most overvalued housing market in the USA: 78%!!

Over-priced housing - CNN
Bend OR $324,400 78.7%

Prescott OR $246,600 64.6%

*

I wonder if the second one is Portland, or Prescott-AZ ???

Anonymous said...

I wonder if the second one is Portland, or Prescott-AZ ???

To show you how astute CNN Money is they reported #2 as "Prescott, OR".

Anonymous said...

"Maybe you need to get out of town a couple times a year, if you can afford it. Hopefully customers tipped you well this weekend."

Yeah, you don't know who you are dealing with.

I tipped well this weekend, because I can well afford it. And I believe in this town.

Anonymous said...

Ooh , you don't know who you're dealing with. I am completely impressed. You must be a real bigshot. Hey bend economy man, you had better realize who you're dealing with. Give me a freakin' break.

Anonymous said...

duncan said:
"I see it as a manifestation that we all wish some person could get elected, without an agenda, who was willing to say hard things. But no one who is that forthright could, and maybe they shouldn't. Politics being the art of compromise and all. "
----------

Well said. I was just that person... no agenda, asking the tough questions of everybody (regardless of Point Of View), stepping on toes regardless of who they belonged to. Not PC, not diplomatic, and no ego to boot (if I was wrong, I'd admit it and go on).

This last election, I got voted out big time. I was very disappointed that I did not win re-election...NOT!

20+ hrs/week, a thankless job, lotsa c$&p, suffering fools and idiots as colleagues, no/low pay. Who needs it? Mostly the lower echelon of people, or people without a life. I am glad to move on. I did my service, and now am more than glad to let somebody else put in their service to the community.

Run away Duncan, it ain't worth it.

Anonymous said...

"you don't know who you're dealing with". Are you kidding me? You don't know who you're dealing with. I don't give a shit how much money you have, anybody who would say that must have a tiny wee wee. What a prick.

Pietro said...

Politics being the art of compromise and all. - duncan

I have been involved with politics for 30-40 years, and I have always struggled with this notion. Here is my analogy.

A constituent wants to sleep with your 12 year old daughter what do you do?

1.) Let him sleep near her { aka michael jackson }
2.) Let him touch & give a little kiss { friendly constituent }
3.) Let him have a sleep-over
4.) Tell him to go to hell
5.) Terminate him

There is a continuum once you enter the area of 'compromise', but often many things are non-negotiable, just as my analogy above, for MANY people their children are NON-NEGOTIABLE, but then many social value flexible people 'might' tolerate the michael-jackson sleep over.

Where do YOU do draw the line on compromise? Certainly if your only dealing with the typical issue of stealing other people's money, then political compromise is straight-forward.

But once you enter the home and the family many of us are ABSOLUTISTS. THERE WILL BE NO COMPROMISE.

p.s. I know my analogy may offend some, but the point being made is there are some sacred things in this world.

Pietro said...

I think it was Von-Clauswitz, the greatest war theorist of all time.

"Politics" - Definition - "That which we do, when we aren't killing one another"

Politics is what people do when there is NO war. All law is created during the aftermath of a war. Right now the best lawyers that money can buy, are over in Iraq & Afghanistan writing NEW laws for those people. We will load their courts with OUR people, and in time we'll no long have to occupy. They will become a self-sustaining 'democracy'.

The USA broke away from england, and 'laws' were created in an aftermath of war. The courts were loaded with the well-connected, and in time the system became self perpetuating.

Anonymous said...

Whatever you want to say about Dallas, wealth-wise it's worlds ahead of Bend. ... Maybe you need to get out of town a couple times a year, if you can afford it.

BEM sure is getting touchy. Maybe he needs to get out of town for a while. I hear the weather is delightful in Dallas this time of year, but I haven't heard much about the mountain biking and hiking and kayaking there. ;-)

Bend Economy Man said...

I believe in this town.

Great. Another true believer. If you wish real hard, and close your eyes to all the facts, and spout your mouth off every chance you get, it just might come true!

I don't understand why those who "believe in Bend" feel like they've got to make sure Bend is considered a desirable hotspot where everyone aspires to live.

Why don't you take your BELIEVE and subtract the BEE.

That's right, why don't you just LIVE in Bend. Just live. Enjoy. Focus on your career, your family, your health. No need to go around promoting, hustling, slanging, what have you.

BilboBend said...

That's right, why don't you just LIVE in Bend. Just live. Enjoy. Focus on your career, your family, your health. No need to go around promoting, hustling, slanging, what have you.

Thank you BEM, this is exactly my feeling. I too love Bend, been here for forty years.

This reminds me of the guy who likes his GIRL-FREIND SO MUCH he wants everyone in town to sleep with her, so they too can know what he has. Of course this is crazy, but such people exist.

Bend is-was NEVER Aspen, bend is just a nice little place to hike, fish, camp, off-road, jog. Its NEVER been a place to GET-RICH, its NEVER been a place to get-a-good-job. It's always been just a place of trade-offs. Like has been mentioned many times here generally folks that work in Bend put in MORE hours for less money than Willamette-Valley.

The desert of course has a way of taking care of these people, now that its NATIONAL news that Bend is 78% over-valued, does ANYONE seriously think that any appraisal is going to come close to what they need, even with 20% down??

I think the real issue here is these people who 'love' bend, and have to tell us about it, actually hate the desert, thus they promote it so they can cover it with strip-malls, and the old-mill, and turn the deschutes canyon into CONDO corridor. Promotion is all they know. They'll whore they're wives and children. Nothing is sacred, and thus because they hold nothing sacred, everyone else MUST in their minds play the same game.

Thus its full circle, its impossible to do as BEM says "Just live. Enjoy. Focus on your career, your family, your health." Because the ONLY thing these people ENJOY is seeing things destroyed.

Anonymous said...

Bem,

Do you notice that its just one person here that goes from personal attacks from on author to another.

Remember this is the typical game, they cannot argue the law or the facts, and thus MUST attack on a personal basis.

Just stay focussed on the facts, and keep up the work, and ignore the personal attackers.

Anonymous said...

I'm just interested Bendbust, did you at some point in your life have a problem with whoring your wife or children out? You sure do have a pre-occupation towards those examples. It's a tad creepy.

Anonymous said...

Our little adolescent poster has a consistent theme IT picks one little line out of context like Bem's comment on tips "Didn't get enough tips tonight", ... and our LAP goes on a hostile one line tirade, until IT finds a new theme.

Had you bothered to READ this blog-site you would know that for MOST of the bends history, TIPS is how people survive in this town. Fer instance I know guys & gals here that made near $60k/yr on TIPS, but then in 2001 when the bubble started they got into moving-furniture or some other RE racket. This is why BEM mentions TIPS, and the rest of us, because forever in BEND tourists dropping TIPS is how folks paid the bills. Chances are if you live in Bend, you make your money on tips.

Now, WRT to your question, had you FUCKING bothered to read, rather than cut&paste quotes, you would KNOW that the reason I like this analogy is that it is MOST sacred to MOST decent human folk. The people who are fucking up Bend are these kind of people, they are the kind of people who will whore their wives and children.


This is an important subject, because in my experience in politics for MOST instances where people have 'loved-ones' this is the "achilles heel". Given that this thread is on POLITICS, and IHTBYB has NOT yet moved on to the bend-bubble I guess we can keep discussing poly-ticks.

I think Duncan has formally closed his campaign. Thus this horse is dead, the only person who can survive in politics is a person, who has nothing, feels nothing, loves nothing, and cares for nobody except himself. That said there are lots of these types running Bend, on the positive side they currently have a negative net-worth

Anonymous said...

"you don't know who you're dealing with". Are you kidding me? You don't know who you're dealing with. I don't give a shit how much money you have, anybody who would say that must have a tiny wee wee. What a prick.

The fact is that nobody knows who they're dealing with on this blog. The person you're dissing could be rich, poor, tall, short, fat, skinny, Jewish, Lutheran, male, female, skier, snowboarder, etc. Does it matter?

Anonymous said...

The Prescott is in Arizona; the OR is a typo - not everyone has lots of time to edit. Portland is NOT #2, Prescott, AZ is; the list of top 10 are at the link provided above. Portland's in there somewhere; I'll go see where. That is somewhat of importance to Bend if Portland is a big pool of potential buyers. Now for the SW Portland report: Construction has slowed, but not stopped; in fact, it appears to have restarted a bit. I am seeing more For Rent signs and more FSBO signs. Things that are priced too high just sit and sit (nothing new there, but they don't get the message). The day labor site I drive by each day has about 1/2 the number of people there, or less, than last year.

Anonymous said...

I wonder if the second one is Portland, or Prescott-AZ ???


It's definitely Prescott, Az. I used to live in Phx. Prescott has a very similiar run up in real estate prices due to an influx of Californians, speculators, and the like. I would also say the job situation is maybe slightly better than Bend but not much. You could drive to Phoenix if you had to for work. You're not out in the middle of nowhere like Bend. Flagstaff is also very similar to Bend except they have a fairly large University. Former logging town, not a ton of other industry besides tourism/service.

Anonymous said...

Portland 46% overvalued. Here is the link. There's a great interactive graph showing Bend 25% undervalued in 1987, catching up in the 1990s, then going nuts the last two years.

http://www.nationalcity.com/corporate/EconomicInsight/HousingValuation/default.asp?WT.mc_id=100206

Anonymous said...

The person you're dissing could be rich, poor, tall, short, fat, skinny, Jewish, Lutheran, male, female, skier, snowboarder, etc. Does it matter?

Yes, it matters snow-boarders have destroyed the mtn.